## Section I. Detailed Assessment and Recommendations ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [Section I. Detailed Assessment and Recommendations](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/tar/2025/english/tarea2025028-print-pdf.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/tar/2025/english/tarea2025028-print-pdf.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/tar/2025/english/tarea2025028-print-pdf.pdf.json) --- ### Overall assessment - Purpose: Assess data quality of the public sector debt statistics (PSDS) of the Republic of Zambia against the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) for Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS) 2024. - Basis: Information provided prior to and during a mission from September 30–October 4, 2024, and publicly available information. - Agencies assessed: Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP), Bank of Zambia (BOZ), Zambia Statistical Agency (ZamStats). - Context: Sustained technical assistance since 2016 (GFS and PSDS), from UK DFID “Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative 2 (EDDI 2)”, D4D Trust Fund (last mission 2019), UNCTAD (DMFAS), and World Bank (external debt reconciliation). - High-level conclusion: Public debt statistics have improved significantly in the last two years and are broadly reliable, transparent, and of good quality, supported by strong government commitment to improve debt data transparency and accountability. ### A. Prerequisites of quality - Legal environment - Primary responsibility for public debt statistics established by law. - Enactment: “Public Debt Management Act, No. 15 of 2022” (PDMA 2022) establishing a Debt Management Office (DMO) in MoFNP with function to “maintain and keep an updated database of outstanding public debt and guarantees”. - DMO structure: Front Office, Middle Office, Back Office; expected to be fully operational by end-2024. - Institutional environment - PDMA 2022 clarifies roles of MoFNP, BOZ, and ZamStats. - BOZ acts as agent of the Minister for issuance of bonds and treasury bills (PDMA 2022, Section 20 (i)). - Coordination and data sharing among agencies described as adequate. - Immediate DMO priorities: appointment of senior management and training on administration of DMFAS 7 to facilitate integration with CSD (BOZ) and IFMIS. - Resources - Funding: Budget allocation and donor funding secured; Government of Germany provided funding to support establishment and operationalization of DMO, including upgrading DMFAS 6 to DMFAS 7 and staff training. - DMO expected structure might require about 80 professional staff. - Relevance - Current coverage focused on Budgetary Central Government (BCG) and guaranteed and non-guaranteed debt of six SOEs. - Rating: LO - Gap: No fully devised strategy yet to broaden sector and instrument coverage beyond BCG. - Recommendation: Implement structured and periodic consultation with principal data users to review usefulness and identify emerging requirements, leveraging debt symposiums and BOZ domestic debt roadshows. ### B. Assurances of integrity - Professionalism, transparency, ethical standards - MoFNP, BOZ, and ZamStats demonstrate professionalism; recruitment competitive; promotion on merit and partly seniority; on-the-job training provided. - Choice of source data, methodologies, and techniques based on measurement objectives and data requirements. - Commitment to debt transparency evidenced by forward message in the Debt Statistical Bulletin (DSB) Q2 2024 committing to timely publication of the DSB. - Institutional safeguards - Clear and comprehensive ethical standards and guidelines set out for staff in all institutions. - Legal basis: BOZ Act 5, 2022; PDMA 15, 2022; ZSTA Act 13, 2018. - Identified issues and recommendations - Codes of conduct provided at joining but not readily available in workplace or websites; recommendation: publish codes of conduct on respective websites and remind staff annually. - Recommendation: Develop a formal policy or well-established custom to deal with data misinterpretations or misuse, drawing from Zambia’s Statistics Act, 2018, section 31 “Misuse of Statistical data”. - Recommendation: Pre-announce PSDS release dates to financial markets. ### C. Methodological soundness - Compliance with international standards - Broad alignment with PSDSG 2013 and GFSM 2014 concepts and definitions. - BCG debt reported with breakdowns by residency of creditor (domestic vs nonresident), original and remaining maturity, and currency of denomination. - Coverage limitations and actions - Not reported within MoFNP debt reports: debts of local governments, extrabudgetary units, social security funds, and public corporations. - Mission recommendations: - Urgently establish an authoritative list of all public entities sectorized according to international statistical standards. - Expand sector coverage guided by materiality and practical considerations: initially include public corporations’ debts, followed by local governments. - Recommendation: Include liabilities related to IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) within debt tables following standard international presentation and correct erroneous presentation of SDR liabilities shown in Table 4 of the Quarterly DSB. - Valuation: Debt reported at face value; recommendation to supplement with tables at nominal value while retaining face value reporting in the short-to-medium term. - Recommendation: As sector coverage expands, introduce mechanisms to consolidate PSDS across government/public sector to eliminate cross-holdings and avoid double counting. ### D. Accuracy and Reliability - Source data and validation - Source data on BCG debt stocks is comprehensive, validated, and subject to quality assurance. - BOZ provides data for government debt securities; MoFNP is data owner for external government borrowing; collaboration produces harmonized outputs. - External validation: reporting to World Bank DRS has significantly improved for 2022 and 2023; current reporting to DRS covers only BCG and government-guaranteed external debt. - Timeliness and processes - Most data sources available in a timely manner after quarter-end; MoFNP aims to publish within two months of quarter-end. - Lack of full system integration complicates compilation; planned DMFAS upgrade expected to improve automation and efficiency. - Current manual processes: MoFNP manually enters CSD data into DMFAS; debt servicing info taken from DMFAS and manually entered into IFMIS. - Recommendation: Interface DMFAS with the CSD and IFMIS to increase automation, reduce manual errors; prioritize upgrading to DMFAS 7. - Arrears and estimations - Arrears certification requirement creates systemic lag; MoFNP estimates missing latest-quarter arrears by assuming unchanged values from previous quarter with a footnote; statistical best practice recommends explicit estimates flagged in metadata. - Reconciliations and revisions - Quarterly DSB includes reconciliation table for external debt stock changes; no equivalent table published for domestic debt historically. - Published stock-flow analysis implicitly tracks revisions but revisions are not explicitly shown (LNO). - Recommendation: Publish more detailed reconciliations between changes in debt stock and associated flows and a table showing previously published figures alongside updated figures with explanations. - Recommendation: Develop and publish a PSDS revision policy. ### E. Serviceability - Periodicity and timeliness - MoFNP disseminates quarterly PSDS within two months of quarter-end and annual public sector debt data within six months of year-end. - This frequency and regularity align with best statistical practices. - Recommendation: Commence and sustain dissemination of quarterly central government gross debt via the NSDP. - Content and consistency - DSB discloses end-period outstanding debt stock, disbursements, repayments, and other economic flows. - Published PSDS are internally consistent over time and comparable with balance of payments and monetary accounts. - Recommendation: Publish more detailed reconciliations and ensure consistency checks through formal data sharing between macro datasets. ### F. Accessibility - Publication and format - Main publication vehicle: MoFNP quarterly Debt Statistical Bulletin (DSB). - DSB aligns largely with PSDSG 2013 and GFSM 2014 classifications, provides charts, comprehensive tables, and commentaries. - Current DSBs are published in editable PDF formats. - User requests and international dissemination - Users requested source data used for DSB be made available in reusable formats (MS Excel or csv). - Requests for broader coverage, more comprehensive metadata, and detailed breakdowns of arrears by economic sector/sub-sector. - Recommendation: Disseminate statistics in the Joint IMF-World Bank Quarterly Public Sector Debt statistics database (QPSD). - Recommendation: Provide published quarterly debt statistics in machine-readable formats (SDMX, Excel, .csv) for a historical period of not less five years. - Recommendation: Publish an advance release calendar for a 12-month period. ### Table 1 — Selected summary findings and ratings - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: O - PDMA 2022 strengthened institutional framework, clarified guarantees and indemnities, established DMO, set framework for regulating borrowing of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs). - 0.2 Resources: O - Funding secured for DMO; donor support for DMFAS upgrade and training. - 0.3 Relevance: LO - DMO aware of need to enhance relevance but has not yet devised strategy to broaden coverage beyond BCG and six SOEs. ### Local government debt — scope, current data, and gaps - Composition: 5 city councils, 15 municipal councils and 96 town councils. - Borrowing oversight: Councils must request permission from the MoFNP to borrow, including overdrafts; review process for consent is well established but there is no subsequent tracking of amounts borrowed or servicing of that debt. - Estimated outstanding: 2.8 billion Zambian Kwacha as at June 2020 (only figure mission sourced). - Reporting framework and systems - Annual financial statements must be submitted within 3 months of year-end; follow cash-based IPSAS with supplementary liability information; subject to audit by local councils, central government and the Office of the Auditor General (OAG). - Two systems being developed: a web-based local authorities’ debt and arrears software; a standardized financial management information system for all local councils. - Planned systems expected to support debt reporting from late 2025 / early 2026. - Recommendation: Interface new local government debt system with central DMFAS to maximize efficiency and reduce errors. - Quarterly debt statistics could be estimated using partial coverage of the 116 local councils, prioritizing most material city and municipal councils; any estimations should be supported by appropriate metadata. ### User survey — key perceptions and statistics - Primary data sources used by respondents (counts): - IMF or World Bank databases and/or publications: 3 - Other international organization databases and/or publications: 5 - Official national debt bulletins and press releases: 1 - Media reports: 1 - Data published on the National Summary Data Page (NSDP): 1 - Private sector summaries and analyses: 1 - Other sources: 1 - Usefulness and accuracy assessments (counts) - Analytically useful: Very useful: 6; Useful: 3; Somewhat useful: 3; Not useful: 0; Undecided: 0 - Disseminated PSDS are unbiased and accurate: Strongly agree: 1; Agree: 8; Neither agree nor disagree: 3; Disagree: 0; Strongly disagree: 0 - Satisfaction with timeliness and level of detail (counts) - Very satisfied: 0; Satisfied: 8; Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied: 2; Dissatisfied: 2; Very dissatisfied: 0 - Coverage concerns (counts) - Perceived inadequately covered instruments: Accounts payables (arrears): 8; Loans: 9; Debt securities: 7; Pension liabilities: 3; None: 3 - Sub-sectors where more coverage desired: Local governments / State governments: 7; Public corporations: 8; Budgetary central government: 5; Extrabudgetary units: 3; None: 2 - Valuation of outstanding stock positions: Yes: 10; No: 2 - Periodicity and timeliness perceptions - Satisfaction with periodicity: Very satisfied: 0; Satisfied: 8; Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied: 1; Dissatisfied: 1; Very dissatisfied: 2 - Consider PSDS sufficiently timely? Yes: 6; No: 5; Not sure: 1 - Dissemination practices - Published release schedule adherence: Yes and data released on schedule: 3; Yes sometimes: 3; No: 3; Not sure: 3 - Analysis published to explain revisions and unusual changes: Always informed: 3; Sometimes: 1; Never informed: 7; Not aware: 1 - Users informed whether data are preliminary/revised/updated at dissemination: Always: 2; Sometimes: 2; Never: 2; Not sure: 6 - Advance notice for major changes: Yes: 1; No: 1; Not sure: 7; No response: 3 - Consistency with other macro datasets - Fully consistent: 3; Partly consistent: 4; Not consistent: 3; Not sure: 2 ### Strengths (selected) - DMO has independence to operate and deliver its remit within MoFNP. - Periodic publication of quarterly DSB is an important improvement. - Clear recognition of debt liabilities and audit arrangements for identification of debts and arrears. - Published debt reports broadly follow international concepts, definitions and classifications and include clear metadata. - DMFAS and CSD provide strong toolsets: DMFAS for debt stock and servicing reconciliation; CSD for point-in-time holders and trading of government securities. - Public corporations are able and willing to share quarterly financial information. ### Key recommendations (selected and consolidated) - Publish codes of conduct of staff on respective websites and remind staff annually. - Develop and publish a PSDS revision policy and include explicit revision tables in the DSB. - Produce and publish an authoritative list of all public entities by subsector (central, local, social security funds, public corporations). - Expand sector coverage of PSDS to include public corporations first, then local governments, social security funds, and extrabudgetary units, prioritizing material gaps. - Introduce consolidation mechanisms across the public sector to eliminate cross-holdings and avoid double counting as coverage expands. - Include liabilities related to IMF SDRs within debt tables and correct current misclassifications. - Publish supplementary tables with debt at nominal value while retaining face value reporting in the short-to-medium term. - Improve reconciliation transparency: publish domestic-debt reconciliation tables and tables showing previously published figures alongside updated figures with explanatory notes. - Automate data flows by implementing interfaces between CSD and DMFAS and between DMFAS and IFMIS; prioritize upgrading to DMFAS 7 and complete DMFAS 7 administration training by end November to facilitate full operationalization of DMO by December 2024 (IMF program structural benchmark). - Disseminate statistics in machine-readable formats (SDMX, Excel, .csv) and in the Joint IMF-World Bank QPSD; publish an advance release calendar for a 12-month period. - Proactively engage with PSDS users through structured and periodic consultations, user surveys, and awareness-raising on assistance channels. - For local governments: complete deployment of web-based arrears/debt software and standardized FMIS; ensure auditor certification of arrears before inclusion; consider partial-coverage quarterly estimates for the most material councils with appropriate metadata. *IMF | Technical Report – Zambia: Data Quality Assessment for PSDS, Section I. Detailed Assessment and Recommendations (tarea2025028-print-pdf).* ### Section I. Detailed Assessment and Recommendations ..................................................................... ### Section I. Detailed Assessment and Recommendations ### Overall assessment - Purpose: Assess data quality of the public sector debt statistics (PSDS) of the Republic of Zambia against the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) for Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS) 2024. - Basis: Information provided prior to and during a mission from September 30–October 4, 2024, and publicly available information. - Agencies assessed: Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP), Bank of Zambia (BOZ), Zambia Statistical Agency (ZamStats). - Context: Zambia received sustained technical assistance from IMF STA since 2016 (GFS and PSDS), from the UK DFID “Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative 2 (EDDI 2)”, from the D4D Trust Fund (last mission 2019), UNCTAD (DMFAS), and the World Bank (external debt reconciliation). - High-level conclusion: Public debt statistics have improved significantly in the last two years and are broadly reliable, transparent, and of good quality, supported by strong government commitment to improve debt data transparency and accountability. ### A. Prerequisites of quality - Legal environment - Primary responsibility for public debt statistics established by law. - Enactment: “Public Debt Management Act, No. 15 of 2022” (PDMA 2022) establishing a Debt Management Office (DMO) in MoFNP with the function to “maintain and keep an updated database of outstanding public debt and guarantees”. - DMO structure: three functional areas—Front Office, Middle Office, Back Office; expected to be fully operational by end-2024. - Institutional environment - PDMA 2022 clarifies roles of MoFNP, BOZ, and ZamStats. - BOZ acts as agent of the Minister for issuance of bonds and treasury bills (PDMA 2022, Section 20 (i)). - Coordination and data sharing among agencies described as adequate. - Immediate DMO priorities: appointment of senior management and training on administration of DMFAS 7 to facilitate integration with CSD (BOZ) and IFMIS. - Resources - Government has secured funding for DMO through budget allocation and donor funding. - Government of Germany provided funding to support establishment and operationalization of DMO, including upgrading DMFAS 6 to DMFAS 7 and staff training. - Relevance - Current coverage focused on Budgetary Central Government (BCG) and guaranteed and non-guaranteed debt of six SOEs. - Rating: LO - Gap: No fully devised strategy yet to broaden sector and instrument coverage beyond BCG. - Recommendation: Implement structured and periodic consultation with principal data users to review usefulness and identify emerging requirements, leveraging debt symposiums and BOZ domestic debt roadshows. ### B. Assurances of integrity - Professionalism, transparency, ethical standards - MoFNP, BOZ, and ZamStats demonstrate professionalism and promote high ethical standards. - Recruitment competitive; promotion on merit and partly seniority; on-the-job training provided. - Choice of source data, methodologies, and techniques based on measurement objectives and data requirements. - Commitment to debt transparency evidenced by forward message in the Debt Statistical Bulletin (DSB) Q2 2024 committing to timely publication of the DSB. - Institutional safeguards - Clear and comprehensive ethical standards and guidelines set out for staff in all institutions. ### C. Methodological Soundness - Compliance with international standards - Zambia broadly applies international standards, guidelines, and practices, including alignment with PSDSG 2013 and GFSM 2014 concepts and definitions. - BCG debt reported with breakdowns by residency of creditor (domestic vs nonresident), original and remaining maturity, and currency of denomination. - Coverage limitations - Current gaps: not reported within MoFNP debt reports are debts of local governments, extrabudgetary units, social security funds, and public corporations. - Mission recommendations: - Urgently establish an authoritative list of all public entities sectorized according to international statistical standards. - Expand sector coverage guided by materiality and practical considerations: initially include public corporations’ debts, followed by local governments. - Note: Mission observed differences of perception on which entities are public vs private and market vs nonmarket. ### D. Accuracy and Reliability - Data quality for BCG - Source data on BCG debt stocks is comprehensive, validated, and subject to quality assurance. - BOZ provides data for government debt securities; MoFNP is data owner for external government borrowing; collaboration produces harmonized outputs. - Timeliness and processes - Most data sources available in a timely manner after quarter-end; MoFNP aims to publish within two months of quarter-end. - Lack of full system integration complicates compilation; planned DMFAS upgrade expected to improve automation and efficiency. - User feedback - Users surveyed and met indicated widespread satisfaction with perceived accuracy and reliability, contrasting with past views. - Users expressed frustration with narrow coverage—need for local government debts and non-guaranteed debts of public corporations. - Data source assessment for expanded coverage - Existing quarterly data identified for debts of most public corporations. - Less availability of high-quality data for local government debts. ### E. Serviceability - Periodicity, timeliness, and revisions - MoFNP disseminates quarterly PSDS within two months of quarter-end and annual public sector debt data within six months of year-end. - This frequency and regularity align with best statistical practices. - MoFNP publishes adequate metadata in the quarterly DSB, including definitions, concepts, and formats. - Content and consistency - DSB discloses end-period outstanding debt stock, disbursements, repayments, and other economic flows. - Published PSDS are internally consistent over time and comparable with balance of payments and monetary accounts. - Recommendations - Publish more detailed reconciliations between changes in debt stock and associated flows. ### F. Accessibility - Publication and format - Main publication vehicle: MoFNP quarterly Debt Statistical Bulletin (DSB). - DSB aligns largely with PSDSG 2013 and GFSM 2014 classifications, provides charts, comprehensive tables, and commentaries. - User requests - Users requested source data used for DSB be made available in reusable formats (MS Excel or csv). - Calls for broader coverage of public debt, more comprehensive metadata, and detailed breakdowns of some components, notably arrears by economic sector or sub-sector. ### Table 1 (selected summary findings and ratings) - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: O - PDMA 2022 strengthened institutional framework, clarified guarantees and indemnities, established DMO, set framework for regulating borrowing of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs). - 0.2 Resources: O - Funding secured for DMO; donor support for DMFAS upgrade and training. - 0.3 Relevance: LO - DMO aware of need to enhance relevance but has not yet devised strategy to broaden coverage beyond BCG and six SOEs. Appendices (listed in source) - Appendix I. Officials Met During the Mission - Appendix II. Users’ Survey Results - Appendix III. Standardized Debt Table for Reporting PSDS - Appendix IV. Authorities Response to Assessment Report *IMF Technical Report – Zambia: Data Quality Assessment for PSDS, Section I. Detailed Assessment and Recommendations.* ### 0.4 Other quality management O Measures are in place to monitor the ### tarea2025028-print-pdf - 0.4 Other quality management O Measures are in place to monitor the ### Assurances of integrity - Professional independence and legal basis: - BOZ Act 5, 2022; PDMA 15, 2022; and ZSTA Act 13, 2018 provide guidance on compilation of public sector debt statistics. - PDMA 2022 assigns responsibility for compiling public debt to the DMO and ensures the independence and authority of compilers. - Professionalism and staffing: - Recruitment is competitive and promotions are merit- and seniority-based; on-the-job training and international programs (e.g., MEFMI Fellows program) are supported. - Once fully operational, DMO analytical work and prominence of debt analysis are expected to increase. - Transparency and communication: - MoFNP and BOZ are transparent in release of public debt information once validated and audited and confidentiality requirements are met. - Some users indicate pre-announcing PSDS release dates would be useful to financial markets. - Ethical standards: - BOZ, MoFNP and ZamStats codes of conduct provide guidelines for staff, but codes are provided at joining and are not made easily available at the workplace or on respective websites. - Recommendation: Publish the code of conduct of staff on respective websites. - Handling misuse/misinterpretation: - Erroneous interpretation or misuse is elevated to Minister level for official commentary; Minister clarifies issues in debt symposiums or press statements. - Recommendation: Develop a formal policy of communication or well-established custom to deal with data misinterpretations or misuse, drawing from Zambia’s Statistics Act, 2018, section 31 “Misuse of Statistical data”. ### Methodological soundness - Concepts and definitions: - The concept and definition of what constitutes public sector debt in Zambia is in line with international statistical standards. - Scope and sector coverage: - Broad coverage of budgetary central government debt, but limited or no coverage of local governments and public corporations (LNO). - Recommendation: Expand sector coverage to include local governments, social security funds, extrabudgetary units and public corporations; prioritize including public corporations first followed by local governments. - Classification / sectorization: - Debt data presentation broadly follows international standards; includes breakdowns by maturity, residency, and currency. - Recommendation: Include liabilities related to IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) within debt tables following a standard international presentation. - Time of recording, valuation, consolidation: - Debt reported at face value, principal arrears included; foreign currency debt converted into national currency appropriately; data are not consolidated given current sectoral coverage (LO). - Recommendation: As sector coverage expands, introduce mechanisms to consolidate PSDS across government/public sector to eliminate cross-holdings and avoid double counting. ### Accuracy and reliability - Source data: - Source data on debt stocks of BCG appear comprehensive with validation and quality assurance; robust sources for local government debt need establishing; SOE data need collating and consolidation (LNO). - Recommendation: Implement data collection processes to compile quarterly debt data for public corporations and local governments, building on existing collections and considering GFS needs for alignment. - Assessment of source data: - Source data are checked for internal consistency and consistency across publications; aggregate consistency on debt securities checked between DMFAS and CSD; auditing mechanisms certify arrears before recognition (LO). - Recommendation: Interface DMFAS with the CSD and IFMIS to increase automation, reduce manual errors, and allow staff focus on value-added activities. - Statistical techniques: - Where data are not available in time for quarterly publication, conservative estimates are used to avoid breaks in time series (LO). - Assessment and validation of outputs: - External loans reconciled with creditor information both directly and via World Bank’s Debtor Reporting System (DRS) (LO). - Recommendation: Upgrade DMFAS to DMFAS 7 to take advantage of enhanced data quality, reporting functionality, expanded coverage of debt instruments and improved recording of debt securities. - Revision studies: - Published stock-flow analysis implicitly tracks revisions but revisions are not explicitly shown (LNO). - See section 4.3 for recommendations on revision policy. ### Serviceability - Periodicity and timeliness: - MoFNP disseminates quarterly PSDS in a periodic and timely manner (LO). - Zambia, as an e-GDDS country, published yearly central government debt statistics until 2016 but has not published on the NSDP since. - Recommendation: Commence and sustain dissemination of quarterly central government gross debt via the NSDP. - Consistency: - BCG debt data reported by MoFNP in quarterly DSB are largely consistent with other macroeconomic datasets (LO). - Disseminated data on outstanding stock, disbursements, and repayments are valuable to explain movements; additional information on other economic flows is needed to complete reconciliations. - Recommendations: - Maintain consistency checks through regular active/formal data sharing and validity checks between macroeconomic datasets. - Publish a reconciliation of the change in debt stocks with the transactions and other flows driving the changes. (See Appendix III, Table A1 for an example.) - Revision policy and practice: - No revisions policy in place for PSDS; MoFNP regularly revises preliminary domestic arrears estimates and labels preliminary and revised data (LNO). - Recommendation: Develop and publish a PSDS revision policy to guide users and compilers on incorporating and analyzing revisions. ### Accessibility - Data accessibility: - Quarterly statistical bulletin largely follows PSDSG 2013 classifications and is made available to all users at the same time (LO). - Data are not standardly published in electronic reusable formats (e.g., Excel, csv, SDMX). - Recommendation: Disseminate statistics in the Joint IMF-World Bank Quarterly Public Sector Debt statistics database (QPSD) to enable broader access and cross-country comparison. - Metadata accessibility: - MOF publishes comprehensive metadata in the quarterly statistical bulletin covering data sources, institutional coverage, instrument coverage, valuation, sector coverage, exchange rates, and classification (O). - Recommendation: Update and publish PSDS metadata in the templates found in the NSDP and QPSD websites. - Assistance to users: - Reports provide contact information (emails, postal addresses, phone numbers) but no evidence of proactive assistance or awareness-raising for PSDS users (LNO). - Recommendation: Proactively engage with PSDS users, survey users on whether published statistics meet their needs, and raise awareness on how users can get assistance and more information. ### Prerequisites of quality — Detailed assessment highlights - Legal and institutional environment: - PDMA 2022 (Public Debt Management Act, No. 15 of 2022) strengthened the framework and clarified primary responsibility for public debt statistics; DMO expected to be fully operational by end-2024. - DMO structure envisaged with Front Office, Middle Office, and Back Office; Back Office to implement and maintain an updated debt database and produce quarterly DSB and annual reports to National Assembly. - PDMA 2022 clarifies nature and scope of guarantees and sets framework for regulating SOE borrowing. - Current operations and coordination: - Although DMO not yet operational at time of assessment, current arrangements and coordination between MoFNP and BOZ are consistent with new law; IDM has been producing DSB regularly. - Data sharing and coordination among data-producing agencies are adequate; BOZ acts as agent of the Minister for loans related to bonds or treasury bills (PDMA 2022, Section 20 (i)). - Resources and systems: - DMO expected structure might require about 80 professional staff with diverse skills. - More office space, facilities, computing, and financing likely needed. - Zambia currently uses DMFAS 6; upgrade to DMFAS 7 is recommended to facilitate integration with CSD and IFMIS. - Authorities have secured funding from Government of Germany to support establishment and operationalization of DMO, including DMFAS upgrade, training, and procurement. - Recommendation: Complete planned DMFAS 7 administration training by end November to facilitate integration and pave the way for full operationalization of DMO by December 2024 (IMF program structural benchmark). - Quality management and user engagement: - Collection, processing and dissemination are monitored through quality control processes and validation with creditors; debt arrears are monitored routinely and published once certified by auditors. - IDM organizes symposiums and BOZ domestic debt roadshows; DMO plans to extend coverage to all SOEs, provide raw data used in DSB, and repurpose symposiums to educate users. - Recommendation: Implement structured and periodic consultation with principal data users (government, legislature, academia, press, private sector) leveraging debt symposiums and BOZ roadshows. *IMF | Technical Report – Zambia Data Quality Assessment for PSDS* ### 25. Zambia public debt statistics are compiled and disseminated in a transparent manner. ### 25. Zambia public debt statistics are compiled and disseminated in a transparent manner. ### Transparency and Governance - Terms and conditions for collection, processing, and dissemination are set out in PDMA 2022 and backed by Statistics Act 2018. - MoFNP is mandated to produce and publish DSBs on a quarterly basis in line with the timeline set in the Act. - The MoFNP and BOZ transparently release public debt information once data is validated, audited, meets confidentiality requirements, and is cleared by the Secretary to the Treasury. - Government commitment evidenced in the forward message of the Secretary to the Treasury during the release of Q2 of 2024 DSB: “The Government is committed to transparency and adherence to international debt reporting standards, which include the timely publication of the DSB.” - The IDM is empowered to release raw data used in the DSB once the DSB is cleared for publication by the Secretary to The Treasury. - Suggested enhancements: - Once DMO is fully operational and its communication office is established, publish on the MOFNP Website snippets of the terms governing PSDS production (including obligation to compile and disseminate statistics, confidentiality of individual reporters’ data, disclosure of audited annual financial statements on public debt positions, codes of conduct for official statistics compilation, and approval process for data dissemination). - Identify internal government access to public debt statistics prior to public release in corresponding publications and on the e-GDDS metadata posted on the IMF’s DSBB to inform users of internal access practices. - Ethical standards: - BOZ, MoFNP and ZamStats codes of conduct provide guidelines and standards for staff behavior and conflict-of-interest handling. - Recommendation to make codes of conduct easily available at the workplace or on respective websites and to remind staff annually. ### Methodological Soundness - Concept and definition of public sector debt align with international statistical standards; central government debt reported by MoFNP is broken down by creditor residency (domestic vs external), original and remaining maturity, and currency of denomination. - Foreign-currency debt stocks are converted to Zambian Kwacha using the mid-point of the buying and selling spot exchange rates, in line with international guidance. - External debt reporting includes loans and other debts where the creditor/holder is nonresident (e.g., government debt securities held by nonresidents and arrears owed to nonresidents). BOZ’s CSD provides point-in-time data on holders of government securities to inform reporting. - Debt stocks are presented at face valuation; this is clearly identified in MoFNP quarterly DSB metadata but should be flagged in other publications (mid-year economic review, annual economic report). - Face value is permitted but not the preferred approach; statutory guidance recommends nominal valuation with market value of traded debt instruments as a memorandum item. - Short-to-medium term recommendation: do not replace face value reporting immediately, but include supplementary table(s) with debt at nominal value. - Coverage: - Reported PSDS cover main BCG instruments: loans, debt securities, and accounts payable. - Not reported: liabilities relating to SDRs, deposits, and insurance, pensions & standardized guarantee schemes (though latter two are not expected to be material for BCG). - SDRs: recommended to include within debt tables with a footnote explaining that SDR interest is calculated on a net basis and Zambia is currently a recipient of income from SDRs due to holding more SDR assets (held at BOZ) than liabilities. - Sector coverage gaps: - Currently not reported within MoFNP debt reports: debts of local governments, extrabudgetary units, social security funds, and public corporations. - Recommendation to establish an authoritative list of all public entities by subsector, based on international statistical concepts and principles; ZamStats with the Government Finance Statistics Technical Working Group has produced a draft list that needs finalization and maintenance. - Consolidation: PSDS are not consolidated currently; consolidation will be important as sector coverage expands to avoid double counting (no current intra-BCG holdings exist to require consolidation now). - PPPs: arrears and financing related to PPPs are included in published debt, but each PPP contract should be assessed per GFSM 2014 to determine economic ownership and any imputed debt if PPP assets are on the government balance sheet. ### Accuracy and Reliability - Source data for BCG debt stocks are comprehensive and subject to validation and quality-assurance processes; no obvious inaccuracies encountered and reported debt is consistently reported across MoFNP publications. - External validation: reporting to World Bank DRS shows significant improvement over the past two years, particularly in addressing data gaps from 2022 and 2023; aggregate discrepancies between MoFNP and DRS for 2022 and 2023 have become minimal, though granular differences persist due to DMFAS revisions. - Current MoFNP reporting to DRS covers only BCG and government-guaranteed external debt. Need to expand reporting to include all non-guaranteed SOE debt and non-resident holdings of domestically issued debt securities. - Institutional roles and systems (Table 2 summary): - MoFNP: compilation and dissemination of public sector debt data; source data on external debt (loans) and recipients of data on arrears and SOE guaranteed debt. Related systems: DMFAS, IFMIS. - CSD: management of government debt securities (auctions, payments) and source data on government debt securities (and on private sector external debt). - Data validation and timing: - BOZ provides data on government debt securities; MoFNP is data owner for external borrowing; MoFNP collects SOE guaranteed debt and contractor arrears. Validation processes include DMFAS vs CSD comparisons, validation against creditor information, and auditor certification for arrears. - Most data sources are available in a timely manner after quarter end, enabling MoFNP to meet its publication target of two months after the end of the quarter. - Arrears certification requirement creates systemic lag for some arrears categories; MoFNP practice is to estimate missing latest-quarter arrears by assuming unchanged values from previous quarter and to include a footnote in published tables explaining the practice. Statistical best practice recommends including explicit estimates and highlighting them in metadata. - Reconciliations and revisions: - Quarterly DSB includes reconciliation table for external debt stock changes with related flows; no equivalent table published for domestic debt. - Mission attempted more detailed reconciliation for both external and domestic debt but could not produce it from published data. - Recommendation: include more information on debt transactions, revaluations, and other debt flows to facilitate reconciliation, and include a table showing data revisions since the last bulletin with explanations (e.g., updated source data, late reporting, error correction). - Systems integration and automation: - Current manual processes: MoFNP manually enters CSD data into DMFAS; debt servicing information is taken from DMFAS and manually entered into IFMIS with payments then included in DMFAS from IFMIS. - Recommendation: implement interfaces to automate data flows between CSD and DMFAS and between DMFAS and IFMIS to reduce data-entry errors and increase efficiency. - Upgrading to DMFAS 7 would facilitate integration; Zambia government is in advanced discussions with UNCTAD regarding this upgrade, and mission recommends prioritizing it as part of establishing the new DMO. - Public corporations data: - Quarterly balance sheet data for public corporations is available and could be shared with MoFNP; public corporations are required to prepare quarterly financial statements available within a couple of weeks of quarter end. - 36 of the corporations are part of the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) Group and can provide consolidated group-level data. - No legal obstacles identified to sharing data, but sufficient granularity will be required for consolidation across public corporations and between government and public corporations. - Expanding coverage to include public corporations improves transparency but requires careful checks, validations, and automation of data collection. ### Strengths - DMO has independence to operate and deliver its remit within the MoFNP. - Periodic publication in recent years of the quarterly DSB is a big and positive change. - Clear recognition of what constitutes a debt liability and audit arrangements support identification of debts, including certifying existence of arrears. - Published debt reports broadly follow concepts, definitions and classifications of international statistical standards and include clear metadata. ### Recommendations for improvements (selected and consolidated) - Publish the code of conduct of staff in compiling agencies on respective websites and remind staff annually. - DMO should act on feedback provided by data users through debt symposiums and other forums. - Develop a formal policy or well-established custom to deal with data misinterpretations or misuse of statistics, drawing from Zambia’s Statistics Act, 2018, section 31 “Misuse of Statistical data.” - Produce and publish an authoritative list of all public entities by subsector, identifying whether they are government units (central, local, or social security funds) or public corporations (nonfinancial or financial). - Expand sector coverage of PSDS to include debt liabilities of public corporations, followed by local governments, social security funds, and extrabudgetary units, prioritizing the most material gaps given limited resources. - Introduce mechanisms to consolidate PSDS across the public sector to eliminate cross-holdings and avoid double counting. - Include liabilities related to IMF SDRs within debt tables following standard international presentation and correct erroneous presentation of SDR liabilities shown in Table 4 of the Quarterly DSB (these liabilities relate to IMF’s ECF and should be included under loans). - Publish supplementary tables with debt at nominal value while retaining face value reporting in the short-to-medium term. - Improve reconciliation and revision transparency by publishing domestic-debt reconciliation tables and a table showing previously published figures alongside updated figures with explanatory notes. - Automate data flows by implementing interfaces between CSD and DMFAS and between DMFAS and IFMIS; prioritize upgrading to DMFAS 7. *Source: tarea2025028-print-pdf - 25. Zambia public debt statistics are compiled and disseminated in a transparent manner.* ### 41. With respect to the debt of local governments there are various initiatives underway to ### tarea2025028-print-pdf - 41. With respect to the debt of local governments there are various initiatives underway to ### Local government debt: scope, current data, and gaps - Local governments in Zambia comprise 5 city councils, 15 municipal councils and 96 town councils. - Under the latest legislative framework these councils must request permission from the MoFNP in order to borrow, including via overdrafts. - The review process for consent to borrow is well established, but there is no subsequent tracking of the amount borrowed or the servicing of that debt. - Considerable doubt exists on the magnitude of local government debts; the only figure the mission sourced was an estimate of 2.8 billion Zambian Kwacha as at June 2020. - Structures are being put in place to monitor local government borrowing and arrears; these systems and processes are described as urgently needed. ### Reporting framework, timing, and accounting standards - Annually local governments must submit financial statements within 3 months of the end of the year. - The financial statements follow the cash-based International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS) with supplementary information on liability stocks. - Financial statements are subject to audit by local councils, central government and the Office of the Auditor General (OAG). - MLGRD requests quarterly reports from local councils using the format of the financial statements; current quarterly reporting is partial. - Two systems are being developed: - a web-based local authorities’ debt and arrears software for reporting arrears and other debts; - a standardized financial management information system for use by all local councils. - Deployment of these systems is expected to require aligned capacity development activities. - The mission agreed that all arrears’ data should be appropriately certified by the auditors before inclusion. - The planned systems were expected to support debt reporting from late 2025 / early 2026. - To maximize efficiency and reduce errors it was recommended that the new local government debt and arrears system be interfaced with the central DMFAS. - Quarterly debt statistics could be estimated using partial coverage of the 116 local councils, particularly if the debts of the most material city and municipal councils were captured; any estimations used in quarterly reporting should be supported by appropriate metadata. ### Strengths (as identified in the source) - The DMFAS provides the tools and functionality to ensure that debt stocks and related debt servicing are consistent and to reconcile data with creditor information, where available. - The CSD provides comprehensive data not only on issuances, redemptions and interest payments related to government securities, but also on holdings and trading of debt securities. - The operationalization of the DMO is expected to result in increased transparency of the processes for validating the debt data and increased automation of processes. - Public corporations are able and willing to share quarterly financial information for the compilation of debt statistics with a broader sectoral coverage. - Projects are underway that are designed to collate local government debt liabilities and other financial information, as well as assure the quality of the data provided. - The MoFNP disseminates quarterly public sector debt statistics in a periodic and timely manner. - Quarterly data are released within two months after the end of the reporting period, while the annual data within six months after the end of the year. - The quarterly report provides a comprehensive overview of BCG debt and the guaranteed external debt of public corporations. - The PSDS are reported with a high degree of periodicity and timeliness. - The published PSDS largely follow the data dissemination standards prescribed in the PSDSG 2013 and GFSM 2014. - The data show good levels of consistency both between PSDS publications and with publications of other macroeconomic statistics. - Published debt statistics are accessible and include commentaries and charts/tables that can facilitate user analysis and understanding. - Metadata included in the quarterly DSB guides users on data sources, institutional coverage, instrument coverage, valuation method, sector coverage, exchange rate used for converting debt in foreign currencies, and the classification of published debt data. ### Key inconsistencies and coverage limitations - No subsequent tracking of amounts borrowed by local councils nor servicing of that debt until systems are deployed. - Quarterly reporting is partial for local councils. - The DSB reports partial information on the non-guaranteed external debt of public corporations, limited to those in receipt of government guarantees; non-guaranteed external debts of other public corporations and domestic debts of public corporations are not included. - The stock of Eurobonds reported by the MoFNP differs from government securities issued abroad in the IIP due to valuation differences: IIP uses market valuation while the PSDS reports at face value. - Zambia published yearly central government debt statistics on the NSDP until 2016 but has not published on the NSDP since then. - The MoFNP has not yet published a policy for revisions to the PSDS. ### Recommendations for improvements (selected and verbatim where provided) - Upgrade DMFAS to the recently released DMFAS 7 to take advantage of the additional functionality around data quality and reporting as well as the expanded coverage of debt instruments, and improved facility to interface with other systems. - Interface DMFAS 7 with the CSD and IFMIS to increase automation of processes, reduce risk of manual errors, and facilitate staff focus on value-added activities. - Implement data collection processes to compile quarterly debt data for public corporations and local governments, building on existing data collections and system developments, and considering as far as possible the data needs of GFS so as to assure good sector coverage alignment between GFS and PSDS. - Commence and sustain the dissemination of quarterly central government gross debt data via the NSDP. - Maintain consistency checks by having regular active and formal data sharing arrangements and validity checks between macroeconomic datasets. - Publish a reconciliation of the change in debt stocks with the transactions and other flows driving the changes. (See Appendix III, Table A1 for an example.) - Develop and publish a PSDS revision policy to guide users and compilers on the process for reporting and analyzing revisions. - Disseminate the statistics in the Joint IMF-World Bank Quarterly Public Sector Debt statistics database (QPSD). - Metadata on PSDS should be updated and published in the templates found in the NSDP and QPSD websites. - Proactively engage with PSDS users by surveying users on the degree to which the published statistics are meeting their needs and raising awareness on where users can get assistance and more information. - Provide the published quarterly debt statistics in user friendly machine-readable formats, such as SDMX, Excel or .csv files for a historical period of not less five years. - Publish an advance release calendar which clearly highlights the planned publication dates for all releases of debt statistics during a 12-month period. - Disseminate data on arrears transparently with as much detailed breakdown by economic sector and sub-sector as possible while safeguarding disclosure of individual entities. - Provide longer time series of data for analysis of trends. ### Accessibility and international dissemination - The quarterly DSB provides detailed analysis, commentaries, and annex tables; dissemination on the NSDP is recommended. - Zambia is encouraged to subscribe and maintain publication of public sector debt statistics in the QPSD. - The MoFNP has started reporting quarterly external debt data to the joint IMF-World Bank Quarterly External Debt Statistics (QEDS) database beginning in 2023; a longer timeseries, back to 2019 or earlier, would be beneficial. - The MoFNP currently publishes quarterly DSBs in editable PDF formats; the MOF is encouraged to present debt data in machine-readable formats such as SDMX, Excel or csv files. - The MOF should develop and publish a data release calendar to inform users of planned publication dates. *IMF | Technical Report – Zambia: Data Quality Assessment for PSDS (excerpts provided in the source content)* ### 2. As a user of PSDS what is your main ### 2. As a user of PSDS what is your main ### Survey respondents and main interests in disseminated PSDS data - Official national debt bulletins and press releases: 1 - IMF or World Bank databases and/or publications: 3 - Other international organization databases and/or publications: 5 - Media reports: 1 - Data published on the National Summary Data Page (NSDP): 1 - Private sector summaries and analyses: 1 - Other sources: 1 ### Sources from which respondents obtain PSDS and related data (responders by institution) - International organizations: 10 - Financial institutes: 8 - Foreign governments: 3 - Research institutes: 4 - Member of Parliament: 4 - (Additional small counts shown graphically): 4, 2, 0, 10, 0, 1, 1 ### Overall assessment — usefulness and perceptions - In your view, are the disseminated PSDS analytically useful? - Very useful: 6 - Useful: 3 - Somewhat useful: 3 - Not useful: 0 - Undecided: 0 - The disseminated PSDS are unbiased and accurate (level of agreement): - Strongly agree: 1 - Agree: 8 - Neither agree nor disagree: 3 - Disagree: 0 - Strongly disagree: 0 - Satisfaction with timeliness and level of detail of the disseminated PSDS: - Very satisfied: 0 - Satisfied: 8 - Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied: 2 - Dissatisfied: 2 - Very dissatisfied: 0 ### Coverage and concepts — satisfaction with coverage - Sector coverage satisfaction (inclusion/exclusion of budgetary unit, extrabudgetary entities, subnational governments, public corporations): - Very satisfied: 0 - Satisfied: 7 - Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied: 5 - Dissatisfied: 0 - Very dissatisfied: 0 - Coverage of debt instruments satisfaction (loans, bonds, arrears, accounts payable, pension liabilities): - Very satisfied: 0 - Satisfied: 6 - Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied: 6 - Dissatisfied: 0 - Very dissatisfied: 0 - Coverage of public debt of public nonfinancial corporations (state-owned enterprises): - Very satisfied: 0 - Satisfied: 8 - Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied: 3 - Dissatisfied: 1 - Very dissatisfied: 0 ### Perceived inadequately covered debt instruments - Responses by instrument: - None – coverage is adequate for all debt instruments: 3 - Accounts payables (arrears): 8 - Loans: 9 - Debt securities: 7 - Pension liabilities: 3 - Other: 0 ### Sub-sectors for which more coverage is desired - Responses by sub-sector: - None – coverage is adequate for all sub-sectors of the public sector: 2 - Local governments / State governments: 7 - Public corporations: 8 - Budgetary central government: 5 - Extrabudgetary units: 3 - Other: 0 ### Valuation of outstanding stock positions - Is the way that the PSDS outstanding stock positions are valued appropriate? - Yes: 10 - No: 2 ### Periodicity and timeliness - Satisfaction with periodicity of disseminated PSDS (monthly, quarterly, annual): - Very satisfied: 0 - Satisfied: 8 - Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied: 1 - Dissatisfied: 1 - Very dissatisfied: 2 - Do you consider that the PSDS are disseminated in a sufficiently timely manner? - Yes: 6 - No: 5 - Not sure: 1 ### Dissemination practices — release schedules, revision transparency, advance notice - Is there a published release schedule/calendar for PSDS and are the PSDS released punctually as per the pre-announced schedule? - Yes, and the data is released on schedule: 3 - Yes, and the data is sometimes released on schedule: 3 - Yes, and the data is never released on schedule: 0 - No: 3 - Not sure: 3 - Is analysis published to identify and explain the causes of revisions, breaks, adjustments, discontinuities, and/or unusual changes in economic trends? - Always informed: 3 - Sometimes informed: 1 - Never informed: 7 - Not aware: 1 - At the time of PSDS dissemination, are users informed whether the nature of data is preliminary, revised or updated? - Always: 2 - Sometimes: 2 - Never: 2 - Not sure: 6 - Do you receive advance notice as to when major changes will be introduced into the PSDS (such as changes to coverage, methods or data sources)? - Yes: 1 - No: 1 - Not sure: 7 - No response: 3 ### Accessibility and usefulness — presentation, metadata, consistency - Do you agree that the disseminated PSDS are presented in a way that facilitates proper interpretation and meaningful comparisons? - Strongly agree: 1 - Agree: 7 - Neither agree nor disagree: 3 - Disagree: 0 - Strongly disagree: 1 - Is there comprehensive published source and methods document or information (metadata) readily accessible to users? - Yes, available and accessible (implied count): 5 - Partial information available: 3 - No information available: 2 - Not sure: 2 - To your knowledge are the PSDS largely consistent and reconcilable over time with other macroeconomic data sets like government finance statistics, national accounts, international investment position, external debt statistics and monetary and financial? - Fully consistent: 3 - Partly consistent: 4 - Not consistent: 3 - Not sure: 2 ### Appendix III: Standardized debt table guidance (Table A1 summary) - Table A1 reconciles Public Sector Debt Flows and Stocks across: - Debt stocks: Opening balance; Changes during the period (Transactions: Incurrence of liability — Principal, Interest; Repayment of liability — Principal, Interest; Other transactions) ; Other Economic Flows (Revaluations; Other Volume Changes) ; Debt stocks: Closing balance. - Debt instrument rows listed: Special Drawing Rights (SDRs); Currency and deposits; Debt securities; Loans; Insurance, pensions, and standardized guarantee schemes; Other accounts payable. - Notes: - If data for particular instruments are not available then these may be left blank. - If debt stocks are reported at face value then interest transactions will generally not impact the change in debt stocks other than interest included in issuance/redemption payments and when interest is in arrears. - Other transactions include penalties, debt forgiveness and debt assumption. - Most common revaluations are due to foreign exchange rates. - Additional information should be provided as footnotes to explain the reasons for other volume changes. ### Appendix IV: Authorities’ response to assessment report — Government of Zambia - Government acknowledges receipt of the PSDS DQAF Mission Report following the IMF mission visit from September 30 to October 4, 2024. - Government finds the report acceptable for publication and reaffirms commitment to implementing recommendations to ensure robust, transparent, and reliable public debt statistics. - Actions in response to recommendations: 1. Expansion of Debt Coverage: - Advancing efforts to include data on local government and non-guaranteed public corporation debt in PSDS. - Systems under development include local authorities' debt reporting framework and Government Investment's State-Owned Enterprises Records Management Database; both currently operational and awaiting deployment. 2. Enhanced Integration and Automation: - Planned upgrade to DMFAS 7 to facilitate integration with IFMIS and the Central Securities Depository (CSD), reducing manual errors and improving data quality. - DMFAS integration with IFMIS expected to be complete during the year 2025. - Discussions to integrate DMFAS with CSD have recently commenced with the expectation to make significant progress during the year 2025. - Until CSD-DMFAS integration is complete, domestic debt is being reported from the CSD system to ensure consistency. 3. Consistency and Reconciliation: - Debt Statistical Bulletin now incorporates reconciliation tables for domestic and external debt stock and flows, in effect since the publication of the End Quarter Three(s) Debt Statistical Bulletin. 4. Improved Accessibility and Metadata: - Debt data published in the Debt Statistical Bulletin will also be disseminated in machine-readable formats (e.g., Excel) and published on platforms like the National Summary Data Page (NSDP). - Comprehensive metadata will accompany all data sets. *IMF | Technical Report – Zambia — Data Quality Assessment for PSDS* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/tar/2025/english/tarea2025028-print-pdf.pdf_