## REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN — Report on National Accounts Mission, November 6 – 17, 2023 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN — Report on National Accounts Mission, November 6 – 17, 2023](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/tar/2025/english/tarea2025043-print-pdf.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/tar/2025/english/tarea2025043-print-pdf.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/tar/2025/english/tarea2025043-print-pdf.pdf.json) --- ### Summary of Mission Outcomes and Priority Recommendations - A CCAMTAC TA mission visited Astana during November 6–17, 2023 to assist the Bureau of National Statistics (BNS) in developing quarterly national accounts. - The mission reviewed large statistical discrepancies between GDP by production (GDPP) and GDP by expenditure (GDPE). The BNS currently: - includes the statistical discrepancy as a separate row when publishing preliminary annual GDP estimates; and - publishes annual supply and use tables (SUT) after t+11 months, in which the discrepancy is removed via supply-use balancing. - Mission recommendations and actions: - Introduce an additional revision date after t+11 months to revise national accounts data so they are fully aligned with the SUT; currently two different values of nominal GDP are published on the BNS website. - Prepare and implement a GDP release schedule to take effect after publication of discrete quarterly GDP; schedule includes an additional adjustment of annual GDP to align national accounts with the annual SUT. - Release discrete time series of quarterly GDP in the second quarter of 2024; chain-linked time series to start from the first quarter of 2010. - Priority recommendations (selected): - May 2024 — Approve the new data release calendar. (Responsible: BNS) — Status: Ongoing - May 2024 — Publish a quarterly GDP press release. (Responsible: BNS) — Status: Ongoing - May 2024 — Publish discrete time series of quarterly GDP. (Responsible: BNS) — Status: Ongoing - Mission noted most prior TA recommendations have been implemented; remaining items focus on improving data sources and statistical questionnaires. - The mission overlapped with the Article IV mission of IMF MCD. ### Detailed Technical Assessment and Recommendations (Selected action plan items and status as of June 2024) - Outcome: Quarterly GDP estimates are based on discrete source data. - Priority actions / milestones (target completion date and status of implementation as of June 2024): - June 2023 — Carry out logical control of the opening and closing stocks of inventories. — Complete - June 2023 — Clarify priorities for the compilation of detailed regional GDP. — Complete - June 2023 — Update estimates of cultivated biological resources. — Ongoing - September 2023 — Compile quarterly SUT at the section level of NACE Rev.2 for quarters with large statistical discrepancies between GDPP and GDPE. — Ongoing - September 2023 — Estimate annual military expenditures and include relevant capital items in GFCF. — Ongoing - October 2023 — Identify the least reliable indicators and adjust them to reduce the statistical discrepancy. — Ongoing - October 2023 — Compile time series of volume indices. — Ongoing - November 2023 — Adjust data on exports and imports of goods to ensure compliance with the balance of payments data. — Ongoing - November 2023 — Develop additional data sources on final consumption expenditure of NPISH and update the existing estimates. — Complete - December 2023 — Ensure consistency between the SUT and other published national accounts data. — Ongoing - February 2024 — Review enterprises whose main activity in the business register is trade and adjust main activity if purchases of goods for resale are not reported. — Ongoing - February 2024 — Collect more detailed information on trade margins. — Ongoing - February 2023 — Develop specific questionnaires to observe corporations that provide other financial services. — Ongoing - February 2023 — Remove the "other inventories" column from the survey questionnaire. — Ongoing - February 2023 — Replace the column "goods for trade" with "goods for resale" in the survey questionnaire. — Ongoing - February 2023 — Implement the perpetual inventory method for compiling consumption of fixed capital. — Ongoing - March 2024 — Change the existing methodology for estimating N6. — Ongoing - March 2024 — Increase the number of NAD employees involved in SUT compilation. — Ongoing - March 2024 — Increase the number of NAD employees involved in the compilation of regional GDP. — Ongoing - April 2024 — In consultation with main users, select the format of quarterly GDP press release. — Ongoing - April 2024 — Implement seasonal adjustment software. — Ongoing - May 2024 — Approve the new data release calendar. — Ongoing - May 2024 — Publish a quarterly GDP press release. — Ongoing - May 2024 — Publish discrete time series of quarterly GDP. — Ongoing - December 2024 — Adjust the annual GDP after t+11 months to ensure consistency between the annual GDP and SUT. — Ongoing - H (High) and M (Medium) priority labels used in action plan. ### A. Quarterly GDP on a Discrete Basis — Findings - Quarterly time series of GDPP and GDPE starting from the first quarter of 2010 have been compiled; working files are technically correct and preliminary data may be published after adjustments. - The BNS should set a closing date for the current major revision; mission and BNS agreed adjustments up until end of February 2024 will be reflected in quarterly GDP published in May 2024. Post-February adjustments will be considered in the next major revision scheduled for 2029. - Quarterly GDPP may be adjusted by benchmarking and annual overlap techniques applied to industrial production indices; implementation of these methods is ongoing in other BNS sectoral departments. - Quarterly GDPE may be adjusted due to upcoming changes in GFCF and final consumption expenditure of NPISH; BNS plans to adjust cultivated biological resources and to update NPISH consumption based on the 2022 NPISH survey. - Quarterly GDP by income is compiled at the two-digit level of NACE Rev.2. Some GDP-by-income components (net taxes on production and net operating surplus/mixed income) take negative values; net operating surplus/mixed income at the macro level should not be negative and causes were identified. - Consumption of fixed capital is currently compiled as a percentage of GVA and net operating surplus/mixed income treated as a residual; this often overestimates consumption of fixed capital and leads to negative net operating surplus/mixed income. - Annual GDP-by-income component estimates differ significantly from the corresponding components in annual SUT; adjusted annual GDP by income must fully correspond to the annual SUT. Recommended Actions: - Compile time series of volume indices. - Ensure consistency between the SUT and other published national accounts data. - Implement the perpetual inventory method for compiling consumption of fixed capital. - Publish discrete time series of quarterly GDP. ### B. Data Release Calendar — Findings - BNS currently publishes cumulative GDP estimates without revising previous cumulative-period estimates after publication of a new cumulative period (e.g., after January–July are published, January–June are not revised). This practice leads to limited revisions and gives users incorrect impressions about data stability. - After the annual adjustment in July, the annual SUT is compiled in November; supply-use balancing allocates the statistical discrepancy which changes component estimates (for example, GVA differs from GVA by income published in July). The SUT is published on the BNS website while the annual GDP published in July is not revised, resulting in two different published GDP estimates. - An additional adjustment of annual GDP will be added to the dissemination calendar: in December of the following year revised national accounts data will be published that are fully compliant with the annual SUT. This annual adjustment will also change quarterly GDP estimates for the same year. - Publication of quarterly GDP will increase the number of revisions because benchmarking adjusts previous quarters after each new quarter is published; BNS press releases should clearly explain the resulting revisions. - BNS cooperates with the Asian Development Bank to implement seasonal adjustment software JDemetra+; seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP is expected to be ready for publication in May 2024. User consultation should determine whether seasonally adjusted data are included in the press release. Recommended Actions: - Adjust the annual GDP after t+11 months to ensure consistency between the annual GDP and SUT. - Approve the new data release calendar. - In consultation with main users of national accounts data, select the format of quarterly GDP press release. - Implement seasonal adjustment software. - Publish a quarterly GDP press release. ### C. Other Important Issues — Data Sources Findings: - Most previous TA recommendations have been implemented; remaining work focuses on improving statistical questionnaires to collect data on purchases of goods intended for resale and obtaining precise stock values of inventories. - Improved data on purchases of goods intended for resale will significantly improve compilation of GVA for trade services. ### Trade sector data and trade margins (Section 2) - Current practice: BNS compiles output of trade by multiplying the total trade turnover by the trade margin, although the trade margin is an expert estimate. - Data collection change recommended: introduce a new line in all statistical questionnaires collecting data on the expenditure on purchasing goods intended for resale. - Questionnaire issue: the BNS currently uses "other inventories" in the questionnaires, which cannot be precisely divided by types of inventories. Since the stocks of "other inventories" are quite large, its precise distribution will significantly improve the quality of data on changes in inventories. ### Questionnaires review and timeline - The mission noted the importance of conducting a detailed analysis of the currently used questionnaires to identify shortcomings that affect data quality beyond the two issues mentioned above. - Agreement and timing: The mission and BNS management agreed that the next TA mission will be conducted in February 2024, which will help the BNS improve its data sources. - Scope of next mission: The mission will review all existing statistical questionnaires in detail and, if necessary, will make recommendations for their improvement. ### Regional GDP compilation - Background: During the previous CCAMTAC TA mission, working files for the compilation of quarterly regional GDP were prepared. Thirteen working files in MS Excel provide for a detailed compilation of quarterly GDP by each region. - Current status: During the current mission, the remaining problematic issues were discussed. - Control mechanism: The mission and the BNS staff have put together a control mechanism so that the sum of regional GVA at all levels equals the total GVA for each industry. - Workload note: Since Kazakhstan's regional GDP is compiled at the double-digit level, this process is time-consuming. BNS staff will continue this work after the mission. - Follow-up: The next CCAMTAC TA mission in February 2024 will review progress in this area. - Dissemination practice: The mission and BNS staff discussed the international practice of disseminating regional GDP and reviewed regional GDP press releases of other countries. As an example, the US release calendar of regional GDP was discussed, and a detailed analysis of the US regional GDP press releases was conducted. - Decision: The mission and BNS staff agreed that some ideas from these press releases will be considered when preparing the quarterly GDP press release for Kazakhstan. ### Sectorization of institutional units - Objective: BNS plans to improve the compilation of institutional sector accounts by classifying each institutional unit into an appropriate institutional sector of the economy. - GFS link: The mission overlapped with the CCAMTAC TA mission on government finance statistics (GFS). At the joint meeting, the GFS expert noted that the precise classification of the government sector is also important for the compilation of GFS. The national accounts data should be fully consistent with the GFS. - Current method: During sectorization, the so-called 50 percent rule is used, which means that if the turnover of an institutional unit is less than 50 percent of operating expenses, then the institutional unit is included in the government sector otherwise it is classified as a public non-financial corporation. - Progress: The GFS expert noted that the BNS has made significant progress in this area, which will soon in improve the GFS data. Recommended Actions (additional from Section 2): - Remove the "other inventories" column from the survey questionnaire. - Replace the column "goods for trade" with "goods for resale" in the survey questionnaire. - Increase the number of NAD employees that are involved in the compilation of regional GDP. ### Officials met during the mission - Mr. Zhasser Jarkinbayev — BNS — Acting Head of BNS - Mr. Aset Nakipbekov — BNS — Director of National Accounts Department (NAD) - Ms. Assel Torgautova — BNS — Deputy Director of NAD - Ms. Alina Beisebekova — BNS — Head of Division, NAD - Ms. Togzhan Bekturova — BNS — Head of Division, NAD - Ms. Zaure Zhunussova — BNS — Chief expert, NAD - Mr. Gabiden Torebekov — BNS — Chief expert, NAD - Ms. Aigerim Isabekova — BNS — Chief expert, NAD - Ms. Indira Baimuratova — BNS — Chief expert, NAD - Ms. Zhanna Suleymenova — BNS — Chief expert, NAD - Ms. Ivana Jablonska — CCAMTAC — GFS Resident Advisor - Ms. Irina Dubinina — IMF — Short-term Expert on GFS *Prepared by Levan Gogoberishvili, IMF Statistics Department — Report on National Accounts Mission, November 6 – 17, 2023 (June 2024).* ### Section 1 ### REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN — Report on National Accounts Mission, November 6 – 17, 2023 ### Summary of Mission Outcomes and Priority Recommendations - A CCAMTAC TA mission visited Astana during November 6–17, 2023 to assist the Bureau of National Statistics (BNS) in developing quarterly national accounts. - The mission reviewed large statistical discrepancies between GDP by production (GDPP) and GDP by expenditure (GDPE). The BNS currently: - includes the statistical discrepancy as a separate row when publishing preliminary annual GDP estimates; and - publishes annual supply and use tables (SUT) after t+11 months, in which the discrepancy is removed via supply-use balancing. - The mission recommended that the BNS introduce an additional revision date after t+11 months to revise national accounts data so they are fully aligned with the SUT. Currently two different values of nominal GDP are published on the BNS website. - The mission and BNS prepared a GDP release schedule to take effect after publication of discrete quarterly GDP; the schedule includes an additional adjustment of annual GDP to align national accounts with the annual SUT. - The mission noted most prior TA recommendations have been implemented; remaining items focus on improving data sources and statistical questionnaires. - The mission overlapped with the Article IV mission of IMF MCD; BNS confirmed the discrete time series of quarterly GDP will be released in the second quarter of 2024. The chain-linked time series will start from the first quarter of 2010. - Priority recommendations (selected): - May 2024 — Approve the new data release calendar. (Responsible: BNS) — Status: Ongoing - May 2024 — Publish a quarterly GDP press release. (Responsible: BNS) — Status: Ongoing - May 2024 — Publish discrete time series of quarterly GDP. (Responsible: BNS) — Status: Ongoing ### Detailed Technical Assessment and Recommendations (Selected action plan items and status as of June 2024) - Outcome: Quarterly GDP estimates are based on discrete source data. - Priority actions / milestones (target completion date and status of implementation as of June 2024): - June 2023 — Carry out logical control of the opening and closing stocks of inventories. — Complete - June 2023 — Clarify priorities for the compilation of detailed regional GDP. — Complete - June 2023 — Update estimates of cultivated biological resources. — Ongoing - September 2023 — Compile quarterly SUT at the section level of NACE Rev.2 for quarters with large statistical discrepancies between GDPP and GDPE. — Ongoing - September 2023 — Estimate annual military expenditures and include relevant capital items in GFCF. — Ongoing - October 2023 — Identify the least reliable indicators and adjust them to reduce the statistical discrepancy. — Ongoing - October 2023 — Compile time series of volume indices. — Ongoing - November 2023 — Adjust data on exports and imports of goods to ensure compliance with the balance of payments data. — Ongoing - November 2023 — Develop additional data sources on final consumption expenditure of NPISH and update the existing estimates. — Complete - December 2023 — Ensure consistency between the SUT and other published national accounts data. — Ongoing - February 2024 — Review enterprises whose main activity in the business register is trade and adjust main activity if purchases of goods for resale are not reported. — Ongoing - February 2024 — Collect more detailed information on trade margins. — Ongoing - February 2023 — Develop specific questionnaires to observe corporations that provide other financial services. — Ongoing - February 2023 — Remove the "other inventories" column from the survey questionnaire. — Ongoing - February 2023 — Replace the column "goods for trade" with "goods for resale" in the survey questionnaire. — Ongoing - February 2023 — Implement the perpetual inventory method for compiling consumption of fixed capital. — Ongoing - March 2024 — Change the existing methodology for estimating N6. — Ongoing - March 2024 — Increase the number of NAD employees involved in SUT compilation. — Ongoing - March 2024 — Increase the number of NAD employees involved in the compilation of regional GDP. — Ongoing - April 2024 — In consultation with main users, select the format of quarterly GDP press release. — Ongoing - April 2024 — Implement seasonal adjustment software. — Ongoing - May 2024 — Approve the new data release calendar. — Ongoing - May 2024 — Publish a quarterly GDP press release. — Ongoing - May 2024 — Publish discrete time series of quarterly GDP. — Ongoing - December 2024 — Adjust the annual GDP after t+11 months to ensure consistency between the annual GDP and SUT. — Ongoing - H (High) and M (Medium) priority labels used in action plan. ### A. Quarterly GDP on a Discrete Basis — Findings and Recommended Actions Findings: - Quarterly time series of GDPP and GDPE starting from the first quarter of 2010 have been compiled; working files are technically correct and preliminary data may be published after adjustments. - The BNS should set a closing date for the current major revision; mission and BNS agreed adjustments up until end of February 2024 will be reflected in quarterly GDP published in May 2024. Post-February adjustments will be considered in the next major revision scheduled for 2029. - Quarterly GDPP may be adjusted by benchmarking and annual overlap techniques applied to industrial production indices; implementation of these methods is ongoing in other BNS sectoral departments. - Quarterly GDPE may be adjusted due to upcoming changes in GFCF and final consumption expenditure of NPISH; BNS plans to adjust cultivated biological resources and to update NPISH consumption based on the 2022 NPISH survey. - Quarterly GDP by income is compiled at the two-digit level of NACE Rev.2. Some GDP-by-income components (net taxes on production and net operating surplus/mixed income) take negative values; net operating surplus/mixed income at the macro level should not be negative and causes were identified. - Consumption of fixed capital is currently compiled as a percentage of GVA and net operating surplus/mixed income treated as a residual; this often overestimates consumption of fixed capital and leads to negative net operating surplus/mixed income. - Annual GDP-by-income component estimates differ significantly from the corresponding components in annual SUT; adjusted annual GDP by income must fully correspond to the annual SUT. Recommended Actions: - Compile time series of volume indices. - Ensure consistency between the SUT and other published national accounts data. - Implement the perpetual inventory method for compiling consumption of fixed capital. - Publish discrete time series of quarterly GDP. ### B. Data Release Calendar — Findings and Recommended Actions Findings: - BNS currently publishes cumulative GDP estimates without revising previous cumulative-period estimates after publication of a new cumulative period (e.g., after January–July are published, January–June are not revised). This practice leads to limited revisions and gives users incorrect impressions about data stability. - After the annual adjustment in July, the annual SUT is compiled in November; supply-use balancing allocates the statistical discrepancy which changes component estimates (for example, GVA differs from GVA by income published in July). The SUT is published on the BNS website while the annual GDP published in July is not revised, resulting in two different published GDP estimates. - An additional adjustment of annual GDP will be added to the dissemination calendar: in December of the following year revised national accounts data will be published that are fully compliant with the annual SUT. This annual adjustment will also change quarterly GDP estimates for the same year. - Publication of quarterly GDP will increase the number of revisions because benchmarking adjusts previous quarters after each new quarter is published; BNS press releases should clearly explain the resulting revisions. - BNS cooperates with the Asian Development Bank to implement seasonal adjustment software JDemetra+; seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP is expected to be ready for publication in May 2024. User consultation should determine whether seasonally adjusted data are included in the press release. Recommended Actions: - Adjust the annual GDP after t+11 months to ensure consistency between the annual GDP and SUT. - Approve the new data release calendar. - In consultation with main users of national accounts data, select the format of quarterly GDP press release. - Implement seasonal adjustment software. - Publish a quarterly GDP press release. ### C. Other Important Issues — Data Sources Findings: - Most previous TA recommendations have been implemented; remaining work focuses on improving statistical questionnaires to collect data on purchases of goods intended for resale and obtaining precise stock values of inventories. - Improved data on purchases of goods intended for resale will significantly improve compilation of GVA for trade services. *Prepared by Levan Gogoberishvili, IMF Statistics Department — Report on National Accounts Mission, November 6 – 17, 2023 (June 2024).* ### Section 2 ### Section 2 ### Trade sector data and trade margins - Current practice: BNS compiles output of trade by multiplying the total trade turnover by the trade margin, although the trade margin is an expert estimate. - Data collection change recommended: introduce a new line in all statistical questionnaires collecting data on the expenditure on purchasing goods intended for resale. - Questionnaire issue: the BNS currently uses "other inventories" in the questionnaires, which cannot be precisely divided by types of inventories. Since the stocks of "other inventories" are quite large, its precise distribution will significantly improve the quality of data on changes in inventories. ### Questionnaires review and timeline - The mission noted the importance of conducting a detailed analysis of the currently used questionnaires to identify shortcomings that affect data quality beyond the two issues mentioned above. - Agreement and timing: The mission and BNS management agreed that the next TA mission will be conducted in February 2024, which will help the BNS improve its data sources. - Scope of next mission: The mission will review all existing statistical questionnaires in detail and, if necessary, will make recommendations for their improvement. ### Regional GDP compilation - Background: During the previous CCAMTAC TA mission, working files for the compilation of quarterly regional GDP were prepared. Thirteen working files in MS Excel provide for a detailed compilation of quarterly GDP by each region. - Current status: During the current mission, the remaining problematic issues were discussed. - Control mechanism: The mission and the BNS staff have put together a control mechanism so that the sum of regional GVA at all levels equals the total GVA for each industry. - Workload note: Since Kazakhstan's regional GDP is compiled at the double-digit level, this process is time-consuming. BNS staff will continue this work after the mission. - Follow-up: The next CCAMTAC TA mission in February 2024 will review progress in this area. - Dissemination practice: The mission and BNS staff discussed the international practice of disseminating regional GDP and reviewed regional GDP press releases of other countries. As an example, the US release calendar of regional GDP was discussed, and a detailed analysis of the US regional GDP press releases was conducted. - Decision: The mission and BNS staff agreed that some ideas from these press releases will be considered when preparing the quarterly GDP press release for Kazakhstan. ### Sectorization of institutional units - Objective: BNS plans to improve the compilation of institutional sector accounts by classifying each institutional unit into an appropriate institutional sector of the economy. - GFS link: The mission overlapped with the CCAMTAC TA mission on government finance statistics (GFS). At the joint meeting, the GFS expert noted that the precise classification of the government sector is also important for the compilation of GFS. The national accounts data should be fully consistent with the GFS. - Current method: During sectorization, the so-called 50 percent rule is used, which means that if the turnover of an institutional unit is less than 50 percent of operating expenses, then the institutional unit is included in the government sector otherwise it is classified as a public non-financial corporation. - Progress: The GFS expert noted that the BNS has made significant progress in this area, which will soon in improve the GFS data. ### Recommended Actions - Remove the "other inventories" column from the survey questionnaire. - Replace the column "goods for trade" with "goods for resale" in the survey questionnaire. - Increase the number of NAD employees that are involved in the compilation of regional GDP. ### Officials met during the mission - Mr. Zhasser Jarkinbayev — BNS — Acting Head of BNS - Mr. Aset Nakipbekov — BNS — Director of National Accounts Department (NAD) - Ms. Assel Torgautova — BNS — Deputy Director of NAD - Ms. Alina Beisebekova — BNS — Head of Division, NAD - Ms. Togzhan Bekturova — BNS — Head of Division, NAD - Ms. Zaure Zhunussova — BNS — Chief expert, NAD - Mr. Gabiden Torebekov — BNS — Chief expert, NAD - Ms. Aigerim Isabekova — BNS — Chief expert, NAD - Ms. Indira Baimuratova — BNS — Chief expert, NAD - Ms. Zhanna Suleymenova — BNS — Chief expert, NAD - Ms. Ivana Jablonska — CCAMTAC — GFS Resident Advisor - Ms. Irina Dubinina — IMF — Short-term Expert on GFS *IMF | CCAMTAC Technical Assistance Report – Kazakhstan National Accounts Mission | Section 2* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/tar/2025/english/tarea2025043-print-pdf.pdf_