## tarea2025044-print-pdf

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### Summary of Mission Outcomes and Priority Recommendations
- Mission: CCAMTAC technical assistance (TA) mission to Ulaanbaatar, September 30–October 11, 2024, assisting the National Statistical Office of Mongolia (NSO) on national accounts.
- Main tasks:
  - Assist the NSO with the development of chain-linked time series of national accounts.
  - Review compilation of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and provide recommendations.
- Key observations:
  - NSO compiles GDP at constant prices with fixed base year 2015, which is outdated and should be updated.
  - NSO is considering moving from fixed base to chain-linked time series; mission developed recommendations for compiling chain-linked GDP by production (GDP-P) and expenditure (GDP-E).
  - Significant differences found between experimental chain-linked results and currently published data, especially in recent years, reflecting changes in the economy’s structure.
  - Quarterly GDP-P is currently compiled by nine aggregated groups of economic activity—insufficient disaggregation for reliable chain-linked estimates.
  - NSO has access to VAT database and conducts regular quarterly and annual surveys—data sources sufficient for chain-linked implementation.
  - NSO staff numbers are inadequate to implement chain-linked volume estimates without additional resources.
- Strategic choice discussed with NSO chairman:
  - Options: (i) rebasing to 2019 fixed base year; (ii) implement chain-linked volume estimation based on recent benchmarks.
  - Mission recommendation: direct resources to implementation of chain-linked time series by detailed types of economic activities. NSO chairman agreed and requested next TA in first half of 2025.
- Priority recommendations (from Table 1):
  - January 2025: Increase staff resources in the national accounts division by adding new staff and improving qualification of existing staff via training courses and workshops. — Responsible: NSO
  - March 2025: Compile GFCF by non-residential buildings and other structures as an aggregate. — Responsible: NSO
  - March 2025: Compile quarterly GDP according to ISIC Rev. 4 sections. — Responsible: NSO

*Further details on priority recommendations and related actions/milestones are included under Detailed Technical Assessment and Recommendations.*

### Detailed Technical Assessment and Recommendations (Action Plan highlights)
- Outcome target: Annual and quarterly national accounts compiled in accordance with best international practice.
- Priority Action/Milestone (with Target Completion Date and priority level):
  - Prioritize the compilation of chain-linked GDP series. — January 2025 — H
  - Increase staff resources in the national accounts division by adding new staff and improving qualification of existing staff via training courses and workshops. — January 2025 — H
  - Compile GFCF by non-residential buildings and other structures as an aggregate. — March 2025 — H
  - Publish reconciled estimates of GDP-P and GDP-E and statistical discrepancies with the fixed base year 2015. — March 2025 — M
  - Compile quarterly GDP according to ISIC Rev. 4 sections. — March 2025 — H
  - Assess the level of detail of existing data sources to determine how many activities can be included in the compilation of chain-linked time series. — April 2025 — H
  - Compile chained-linked GDP-P series by using the annual overlap technique. — June 2025 — H
  - Compile chain-linked GDP-E series by using the annual overlap technique. — September 2025 — H
  - Reconcile the chain-linked time series of GDP-P and GDP-E and analyze the overall level of statistical discrepancies. — October 2025 — H
  - Publish chain-linked GDP series. — March 2026 — H

(H – High; M – Medium)

### A. GDP by Production (GDP-P)
- Current situation and data sources:
  - GDP-P is central to Mongolia’s national accounts and is based on higher-quality data sources.
  - NSO compiles independent GDP-E estimates that differ from GDP-P; both are published without reconciling statistical discrepancies.
  - Volume estimates compiled in 2015 fixed base year prices; planned 2020 update delayed.
  - NSO compiles monthly flash estimates using VAT turnover database (not published routinely) and conducts regular quarterly and annual structural business surveys.
  - Quarterly GDP published by nine aggregated groups; annual data published at ISIC Rev. 4 section level. NSO plans to switch to compiling quarterly GDP according to 19 sections of ISIC Rev. 4 starting 2025.
- Chain-linked time series work and findings:
  - Mission assisted NSO to compile experimental chain-linked quarterly GDP-P at ISIC Rev. 4 section level with 2015 as reference year.
  - Aggregated chain-linked estimates show significant differences from published fixed-base series for both annual and quarterly growth rates, with particularly large differences in recent years.
  - Outdated base year weights (2015) can cause substantial divergence; chain-linking updates weights continuously and better reflects structural changes.
  - Recommendation: compile chain-linked series at more detailed levels than ISIC Rev. 4 sections (e.g., agriculture and fishing at individual product level) to increase reliability—this requires improved data sources and additional staff.
- Non-additivity and contributions to growth:
  - Chain-linked series are non-additive (sum of sections does not equal total GDP except for reference year t and following year t+1).
  - This complicates compilation of contributions of ISIC Rev. 4 sections to real GDP growth.
  - Some countries use the latest year as reference to improve additivity of current estimates and reduce non-additivity impact in recent years.
- Recommended actions for GDP-P:
  - Publish reconciled estimates of GDP-P and GDP-E and statistical discrepancies with the fixed base year 2015.
  - Compile quarterly GDP according to ISIC Rev. 4 sections.
  - Assess the level of detail of existing data sources to determine the number of activities that can be included in chain-linked compilation.
  - Compile chained-linked GDP-P series by using the annual overlap technique.

### B. GDP by Expenditure (GDP-E)
- Experimental work:
  - Mission assisted NSO in compiling experimental chain-linked GDP-E components: household consumption (including final consumption expenditure of private non-profit institutions serving households), government consumption, GFCF, changes in inventories, exports and imports of goods and services.
  - Chain-linked GDP-E components compiled using the annual overlap technique: two quarterly series for each component compiled (at annual average prices of the current year and previous year), then quarterly growth rates calculated relative to previous year averages and linked.
  - Relevant price indices were available on the NSO website.
- Data source issues identified:
  - GFCF in construction is divided into: (i) residential buildings; (ii) non-residential buildings; (iii) other structures.
  - Classification of non-residential buildings and other structures differs between quarterly and annual sources, causing quarterly sums of other structures to significantly exceed annual totals; benchmarking can yield negative values in some quarters.
  - Recommended remedy: combine non-residential buildings and other structures and benchmark them together.
  - Recommendation also made not to publish chain-linked series of changes in inventories separately, but to indicate only its contribution to real GDP growth because changes in inventories can be negative in some quarters.
- Recommended actions for GDP-E:
  - Compile GFCF by non-residential buildings and other structures as an aggregate.
  - Compile chain-linked GDP-E series by using the annual overlap technique.
  - Reconcile the chain-linked time series of GDP-P and GDP-E and analyze overall statistical discrepancies.

### C. Strategic Issues
- NSO management discussion and strategy:
  - Experimental chain-linked series presented to NSO chairman; significant differences from fixed-base 2015 series highlighted.
  - NSO considering two strategies: (i) update fixed base from 2015 to 2019; (ii) implement chain-linked GDP series and abandon fixed base year—possibly both simultaneously.
  - Mission advised prioritizing chain-linked implementation and not allocating staff resources to updating fixed base year 2019.
- Implementation plan and timing:
  - NSO and mission agreed main goal for 2025 is implementation of chain-linked GDP series using existing and additional staff.
  - Best-case scenario: chain-linked time series published by end of 2025; possible postponement to 2026.
  - CCAMTAC next national accounts mission scheduled for June 2025 to assist implementation.
- Strategic recommendations:
  - Prioritize the compilation of chain-linked GDP series.
  - Increase the number of staff in the NSO National Accounts Division.
  - Publish chain-linked GDP series.

### D. Officials Met During The Mission
- Mr. Batdavaa Batmunkh — NSO — Chairman
- Ms. Tegshjargal Tsagaan — NSO — Chief of the Integrated Statistics Department
- Mr. Terbish Jambaldorj — NSO — Chief of National Accounts Division, Integrated Statistics Department
- Ms. Tserenkhand Jagir — NSO — Senior statistician, National Accounts Division of Integrated Statistics Department
- Ms. Tsevelmaa Burneebaatar — NSO — Statistician, National Accounts Division of Integrated Statistics Department
- Ms. Myagmarkhatan Batsuuri — NSO — Statistician, National Accounts Division of Integrated Statistics Department
- Mr. Gerelt-Od Enkhbaatar — NSO — Statistician, National Accounts Division of Integrated Statistics Department
- Ms. Ankhzaya Byambaa — NSO — Statistician, National Accounts Division of Integrated Statistics Department

*IMF | CCAMTAC Technical Assistance Report – Mongolia National Accounts Mission | DECEMBER 2024*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/tar/2025/english/tarea2025044-print-pdf.pdf_