## IMF | CARTAC Technical Assistance Report – Saint Lucia Expenditure-Based Gross Domestic Product (tarea2025052-print-pdf)

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### Mission objectives, timing, and scope
- TA mission: September 2–13, 2024, at request of Central Statistics Office (CSO), Saint Lucia.
- Objectives:
  - Provide a sources and methods assessment for each expenditure category.
  - Compile experimental estimates of GDP-E.
  - Identify likely data errors and suggest strategies for fixing them.
  - Recommend a path to publication of GDP-E as a complementary product to GDP-P.

### Methods, compilation approach, and data sources
- Methodological focuses:
  - Supply- and demand-side indicators for HFCE and GFCF.
  - Demand-side indicators for NPISH and valuables.
  - Direct source-data estimation for international trade in goods and services and GFCE.
- Product flow approach for HFCE and GFCF considering domestic production, international trade, and Intermediate Consumption (IC).
- Recommendations on constant price methods for international trade.
- Data used for experimental estimates (2016–2023):
  - International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS).
  - Balance of Payments (BOP) statistics.
  - Benchmark Supply and Use Tables (SUT) (benchmarked to 2016).
  - Published GDP-P series.
  - Various CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) data.
- Accuracy caveat: GDP-E accuracy depends on quality of the above components.

### Detailed sources & methods (selected highlights)
- GFCE:
  - Current price indicator/method: GFS current expenditure.
  - Deflator: Weighted Implicit Price Deflator.
  - Volume: Deflated current price.
- HFCE by product groups:
  - Product Flow approach; CPI and USA XPI used as deflators where appropriate; volume indicators include employment, number of household electricity customers, population.
  - Examples of CPC-SUT groupings and deflators preserved:
    - Food And Non-Alcoholic Beverages (01-02, 04, 21-23, 244): Product Flow; CPI - Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, USA XPI - Food and Beverages.
    - Alcohol and Tobacco (241-243, 25): Product Flow; CPI - Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco, USA XPI - Alcohol and Tobacco.
    - Housing (72): Reflated Volume; CPI Housing; Number of Household Electricity Customers.
    - Electricity (17, 691): Reflated Volume; CPI Electricity; KWH to Households Customers.
    - Services (92, 931, 7112, etc.): Published Value Added for Education and Health with implicit deflators; other services reflated with various CPIs and population volume indicators.
- Imports and exports deflation:
  - Imports of goods deflated using relevant USA XPI categories where available.
  - Exports deflated with relevant CPI, IPD or USA export price index (many exports are re-exports).
- Intermediate Consumption (IC):
  - Estimated from relationships in 2016 SUT between Value Added (VA) and IC; constant price IC extrapolated using growth in published constant price VA by industry.

### Experimental GDP-E results and data-quality findings
- Experimental GDP-E compiled for 2016 to 2023.
- Preliminary patterns:
  - Years immediately after benchmark year (2016) show minor statistical discrepancies between GDP-E and GDP-P.
  - By 2018, discrepancies increase and widen through the COVID-19 pandemic, at both current and constant 2018 prices.
- Potential causes of discrepancies:
  - Outliers in IMTS data.
  - Volatility in domestic production.
  - Unexpected changes in certain price indices.
- Data concordance and benchmarking issues:
  - Errors in CPC-to-HS concordance used during 2016 SUT development; recommendation: use official CPC to HS concordance produced by UNSD for next rebasing.
  - Significant differences between detailed IMTS export data and ECCB-published SITC-level data; for the exercise detailed IMTS exports were benchmarked to ECCB SITC-level data. Recommendation: ensure consistency with ECCB publications going forward.
- Role of concurrent GDP-E compilation:
  - Concurrent GDP-E can help identify issues in GDP-P, price indices, and international trade statistics by detecting anomalies or errors in source data.
  - Short-term recommendation: continue experimental GDP-E as diagnostic tool.

### Plan for publication and integration with rebasing (CSO plans)
- Conduct Household Budget Survey (HBS) in 2025 to support SUT compilation in 2026 and GDP rebasing.
- Expand product dimension of SUT to improve HFCE and GFCF estimation in benchmark year and subsequent GDP-E estimation.
- Apply existing GDP-E methodology to rebased series to identify and correct source data errors.
- Publish GDP-E with next GDP rebasing.

### Priority recommendations and timing (selected)
- April 2025:
  - Continue compiling experimental GDP-E as a tool to detect possible data errors, using examples in report as guideline. — Responsible: CSO
- January 2026:
  - Expand product dimension of upcoming SUT to improve estimation of GFCF and HFCE. — Responsible: CSO
- December 2026:
  - Publish GDP-E with next GDP rebasing, covering 2016 to most current publication year. — Responsible: CSO

### Example compilation: HFCE — Food and Beverages (selected figures, EC$ '000,000)
- Supply — Domestic output and imports (2016–2023):
  - Domestic Output Volume Index - Food Manufacturing: 96.8; 97.3; 100.0; 103.6; 84.2; 88.3; 93.3; 97.2
  - SUT - Domestic production at Purchaser (2018) Prices: 811,337
  - Extrapolated Domestic Production at Purchaser (2018) Prices: 811,337; 815,367; 838,365; 868,466; 705,720; 739,999; 782,391; 814,945
  - CPI - Food and Beverages: 99.1; 98.3; 100.0; 102.2; 100.9; 101.3; 106.9; 113.9
  - Domestic Production at Current Prices: 804,365; 801,483; 838,365; 887,240; 711,878; 749,487; 836,614; 927,975
  - IMTS Imports of Food and Beverages: 359,066; 382,270; 392,913; 401,146; 351,299; 401,259; 522,284; 528,479
  - Extrapolated Imports at Current Prices: 365,636; 389,264; 400,103; 408,485; 357,727; 408,601; 531,841; 538,148
  - USA XPI - Food and Beverages: 98; 99.55; 100.00; 100.49; 100.51; 124.55; 142.14; 134.05
  - Total Supply, Current Prices: 1,170,002; 1,190,747; 1,238,468; 1,295,725; 1,069,605; 1,158,088; 1,368,455; 1,466,123
  - Total Supply, Constant Prices: 1,185,074; 1,206,377; 1,238,468; 1,274,950; 1,061,645; 1,068,066; 1,156,565; 1,216,409
- Demand — Exports, IC and total demand (2016–2023):
  - IMTS Exports of Food and Beverages: 64,865; 61,833; 41,303; 49,985; 35,081; 26,786; 25,425; 25,778
  - Extrapolated Exports at Current Prices: 56,432; 53,795; 35,934; 43,487; 30,521; 23,304; 22,120; 22,427
  - IPD - Food and Beverages: 112; 114; 100; 95; 112; 106; 95; 109
  - IC of Food and Beverages by Industry (Total), SUT, 2018 Prices: 367,509
  - Extrapolated IC, Constant Prices: 367,509; 390,165; 410,322; 420,579; 222,992; 270,545; 397,068; 432,723
  - Convert to Current Prices with CPI - Food & Beverages: 370,694; 383,522; 410,322; 429,670; 224,938; 274,014; 424,587; 492,740
  - Total Demand, Current Prices: 427,126; 437,316; 446,256; 473,158; 255,459; 297,318; 446,707; 515,167
  - Total Demand, Constant Prices: 418,097; 437,313; 446,256; 466,135; 250,316; 292,457; 420,367; 453,238
- Product balance — HFCE:
  - HFCE Current (Product Balance): 742,875; 753,431; 792,212; 822,567; 814,146; 860,771; 921,748; 950,956
  - HFCE Constant (Product Balance): 766,977; 769,063; 792,212; 808,815; 811,329; 775,609; 736,198; 763,171

### Inconsistencies, implied change in inventories (CII) — population method (selected values, Table 5)
- Guidance on SUT vs IMTS: respect SUT value when differences exist; use IMTS to extrapolate.
- Population (2016–2023): 176,559; 177,997; 179,344; 180,592; 181,735; 182,764; 183,675; 184,460
- Extrapolate Constant Price HFCE (2016–2023): 766,977; 773,225; 779,076; 784,499; 789,462; 793,935; 797,890; 801,301
- Current Price HFCE (CPI Food) (2016–2023): 742,875; 786,619; 779,076; 767,900; 782,633; 783,883; 746,176; 703,701
- Total Supply, Current Prices (2016–2023): 1,170,002; 1,190,747; 1,238,468; 1,295,725; 1,069,605; 1,158,088; 1,368,455; 1,466,123
- Total Demand, Current Prices (2016–2023): 1,170,002; 1,223,936; 1,225,332; 1,241,057; 1,038,091; 1,081,201; 1,192,883; 1,218,868
- Implied CII % (total output), Current Prices:
  - 2016: -
  - 2017: (3)
  - 2018: 1
  - 2019: 4
  - 2020: 3
  - 2021: 7
  - 2022: 13
  - 2023: 17
- Finding: implied CII identifies possible data issues; by 2021 implied CII grows to unreasonable levels and remains elevated.

### Estimating HFCE and GFCF for products containing both components (Transportation Equipment example, Table 6)
- Problem: some product categories contain both HFCE and GFCF (e.g., Metal products CPC 41–42, ICT, Other Machinery, Transportation Equipment, Furniture).
- Short-term solution: decompose imbalance using 2016 SUT shares and maintain decomposition 2017–2023.
- Transportation Equipment — Current Prices — Imbalance from Product Flow (2016–2023): 127,219; 173,857; 142,887; 161,993; 134,522; 173,548; 168,238; 254,795
- SUT HFCE share: 0.39
- Transportation Equipment — Current Prices — HFCE (derived, 2016–2023): 49,041; 67,018; 55,080; 62,445; 51,855; 66,899; 64,852; 98,218
- Transportation Equipment — Current Prices — GFCF (derived, 2016–2023): 78,179; 106,839; 87,807; 99,548; 82,666; 106,649; 103,386; 156,577
- Transportation Equipment — Constant Prices — Imbalance (2016–2023): 125,087; 173,770; 142,887; 159,698; 129,314; 169,456; 158,617; 222,934
- Transportation Equipment — Constant Prices — HFCE (derived, 2016–2023): 48,219; 66,985; 55,080; 61,560; 49,848; 65,322; 61,143; 85,936
- Transportation Equipment — Constant Prices — GFCF (derived, 2016–2023): 76,869; 106,785; 87,807; 98,138; 79,466; 104,134; 97,473; 136,997
- Recommendation: improve decomposition between HFCE and GFCF in next rebasing by disaggregating SUT product dimension (see Table 7 guidance).

### Recommended product disaggregation (Transportation Equipment, selected CPC entries, Table 7)
- 49111 Road tractors for semi-trailers — GFCF Only: Yes
- 49112 Public-transport type passenger motor vehicles — GFCF Only: Yes
- 49113 Motor cars and other motor vehicles — HFCE Only: yes
- 49114 Motor vehicles n.e.c. for the transport of goods — GFCF Only: Yes
- 49116 Motor vehicles, designed for travelling on snow; golf cars and similar vehicles — HFCE Only: yes
- 496 Aircraft and spacecraft — GFCF Only: Yes
- 4991 Motorcycles and sidecars — HFCE Only: yes
- 4993 Vehicles n.e.c., not mechanically propelled — Both: yes
- Disaggregation recommendation also for Metal products (CPC 41–42), ICT, Other Machinery, Furniture, and other Manufactured Goods.

### International trade and BOP integration (selected, Table 8)
- BOP via ECCB used for Air Transportation and Telecommunications flows; integrate through product flow and benchmark to SUT trade.
- Exports of Goods, BOP (Current Prices, 2016–2023): 243; 253; 190; 246; 164; 233; 367; 408
- Exports of Services, BOP (2016–2023): 2,239; 2,545; 2,818; 3,018; 1,054; 1,686; 3,133; 3,359
- Imports of Goods, BOP (FOB) (2016–2023): 1,555; 1,556; 1,565; 1,533; 1,309; 1,593; 2,010; 2,395
- Imports of Services, BOP (2016–2023): 943; 1,029; 1,098; 1,214; 621; 815; 1,214; 1,348
- Selected deflators and USA XPI series:
  - IPD Food, Beverages and Tobacco: 112; 114; 100; 95; 112; 106; 95; 109
  - PPI Accommodation: 88; 95; 100; 97; 110; 111; 118; 111
  - CPI Air Transport: 83; 96; 100; 99; 86; 103; 97; 106
  - USA XPI - Food and Beverages: 98; 100; 100; 100; 101; 125; 142; 134
  - USA XPI - Automotive Vehicles: 99; 99; 100; 100; 100; 101; 106; 109
- Constant price aggregates (selected):
  - Exports of Goods (constant): 243; 250; 190; 253; 169; 219; 308; 349
  - Exports of Services (constant): 2,534; 2,676; 2,818; 3,117; 969; 1,536; 2,686; 3,026
  - Imports of Goods (constant): 1,749; 1,635; 1,565; 1,570; 1,436; 1,416; 1,498; 1,953
  - Imports of Services (constant): 960; 1,022; 1,098; 1,207; 629; 818; 1,174; 1,239

### Experimental GDP-E series and major aggregates (2016–2023, EC$ Millions)
- Published Production GDP (GDP-P): 5045; 5396; 5565; 5659; 4041; 5028; 6309; 6588
- Preliminary Expenditure GDP Estimates (GDP-E): 5049; 5443; 6021; 5737; 4971; 5595; 7046; 7002
- Household Final Consumption (HFCE): 3064; 3136; 3651; 3494; 3571; 3764; 4459; 4660
- Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF): 1288; 1369; 1273; 966; 1246; 1424; 1432; 1432
  - Structures (GFCF): 575; 643; 565; 566; 581; 680; 694; 725
  - Machinery and Other (GFCF): 712; 726; 708; 400; 664; 744; 738; 706
- Government Final Expenditure, NPISH, Valuables: 713; 727; 752; 760; 865; 896; 880; 885
- Net Trade: -16; 212; 345; 517; -711; -489; 274; 25
  - Exports of Goods: 243; 253; 190; 246; 164; 233; 367; 408
  - Exports of Services: 2239; 2545; 2818; 3018; 1054; 1686; 3133; 3359
  - Imports of Goods (FOB): 1555; 1556; 1565; 1533; 1309; 1593; 2010; 2395
  - Imports of Services: 943; 1029; 1098; 1214; 621; 815; 1214; 1348
- Change in Inventory/Discrepancy, %, relative to GDP-P: 1.00; 1.01; 1.08; 1.01; 1.23; 1.11; 1.12; 1.06

### Outliers, case investigations, and impacts
- 2018 HFCE anomalies:
  - HFCE in 2018 grows much faster than headline GDP, raising discrepancy between GDP-E and GDP-P to eight percent.
  - Main drivers identified: HFCE Housing and HFCE Metal Products.
- HFCE Housing (selected elements):
  - Number of Residential Electricity Customers (2016–2018): 58,867; 59,620; 60,726
  - HFCE Housing - SUT (2018 Prices): 714,722
  - Extrapolate Constant Prices (2016–2018): 714,722; 723,864; 737,293
  - CPI Housing (2016–2018): 76; 83; 100
  - HFCE Housing - Current Prices (2016–2018): 540,039; 599,576; 737,293
  - Conclusion: Saint Lucia CPI Housing increase between 2017 and 2018 is an outlier (Saint Lucia: 20 percent vs ECCB housing increase for entire Eastern Caribbean: 4.6 percent); large CPI increase drives HFCE Housing rise.
- HFCE Metal Products (selected elements):
  - Domestic Production - Volume Index: 480,467; 544,516
  - IMTS Imports: 661,587; 779,890
  - IMTS Exports: 82,378; 46,608
  - IC Current Prices: 1,018,923; 987,850
  - HFCE Current Prices: 40,753; 289,948
- Product flow — Other Manufactured Products (selected items, 2016–2020):
  - Volume Index - Domestic Output: 94; 94; 100; 100; 100
  - IMTS Imports: 20,005; 21,926; 20,586; 24,524; 33,612
  - IMTS Exports: 1,550; 1,817; 1,201; 26,883; 72
  - HFCE Metal Products - Current Prices: 18,495; 18,408; 20,844; (59,365); 27,585
  - GFCF Metal Products - Current Prices: 65,799; 65,488; 74,155; (211,197); 98,136
- Single-event export example:
  - Exports of paintings caused dramatic increase in Other Manufactured Products exports.
  - Treatment depends on whether painting is existing valuable (GDP neutral apart from change in ownership) or newly produced (would require adjustment to output and VA).
  - Implication: concurrent GDP-E helps identify such anomalies for investigation and correction.
- Discrepancy behavior:
  - 2018: discrepancy increased to eight percent (linked to HFCE outliers).
  - 2019: discrepancy falls to one percent.
- Observation: some published contractions in VA (notably construction) conflict with product indicators (availability of building materials) and require further reconciliation.

### Recommended actions (explicit list from report)
- High priority (selected) and target dates:
  - Compile experimental GDP-E concurrently with GDP-P as a tool to improve GDP-P quality. — April 2025
  - Expand product dimension of SUT for Metals, ICT, Transportation Equipment, Machinery, Furniture, Other Manufactured goods (use Table 7 as guide). — January 2026
  - Publish GDP-E with next GDP rebasing (2016 to most current year). — December 2026
  - Apply product flow method to estimate HFCE for products without a GFCF component. — April 2025
  - For products with both HFCE and GFCF, use 2016 SUT decomposition and extrapolate VA using product flow method. — April 2025
  - Decompose imports of goods by SITC and use relevant USA Export Price Index to convert to constant prices. — April 2025
  - Use examples in Tables 10 and 11 to identify, investigate, and fix outliers in concurrent GDP-E compilation. — April 2025
- Medium priority (selected) and target dates:
  - Use a weighted IPD between Public Administration and Defense, Public Health, and Public Education to derive constant price GFCE. — April 2025
  - Integrate BOP data on international trade in services to estimate HFCE of Air Transportation and Telecommunications. — April 2025
  - Evaluate country origin of imports of services to determine if appropriate country deflators are available. — April 2025
  - Use a version of IMTS consistent with ECCB publication for GDP-E compilation. — December 2026
- Operational milestones (selected from Table 12):
  - GDP-E at current and constant prices published — Target Completion Date: 4/30/2026 — Actual: On-going
  - Experimental GDP-E compiled concurrently with GDP-P — Target Completion Date: 4/30/2025 — Actual: On-going

*IMF | CARTAC Technical Assistance Report – Saint Lucia Expenditure-Based Gross Domestic Product*

### 1. In response to a request from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) in Saint Lucia, a technical

### IMF | CARTAC Technical Assistance Report – Saint Lucia Expenditure-Based Gross Domestic Product

### Mission objectives, timing, and scope
- A technical assistance (TA) mission took place between September 2–13, 2024, at the request of the Central Statistics Office (CSO) in Saint Lucia to support development of experimental expenditure-based GDP (GDP-E).
- Objectives:
  - Provide a sources and methods assessment for each expenditure category.
  - Compile experimental estimates of GDP-E.
  - Identify likely data errors and suggest strategies for fixing them.
  - Recommend a path to publication of GDP-E as a complementary product to production-based GDP (GDP-P).

### Methods and compilation approach
- Main methodological focuses:
  - Supply- and demand-side indicators for Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF).
  - Demand-side indicators for Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISH) and valuables.
  - Direct source-data estimation for international trade in goods and services and Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE).
- Product flow approach developed for HFCE and GFCF that considers domestic production, international trade, and estimates of Intermediate Consumption (IC).
- Recommendations on constant price methods were introduced for international trade.
- Data sources used for experimental estimates (2016–2023):
  - International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS).
  - Balance of Payments (BOP) statistics.
  - Benchmark Supply and Use Tables (SUT) (benchmarked to 2016).
  - Published GDP-P series.
  - Various CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) data.
- Accuracy of GDP-E depends on the quality of the above components.

### Detailed sources & methods (summary of Table 2)
- Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE):
  - Current price indicator/method: GFS current expenditure.
  - Deflator: Weighted Implicit Price Deflator.
  - Volume: Deflated current price.
- HFCE by product groups:
  - Many goods and services estimated using a Product Flow approach with CPI and USA XPI (where appropriate) as deflators and relevant volume indicators (e.g., employment, number of household electricity customers, population).
  - Examples of CPC-SUT groupings and deflators preserved exactly as in the source:
    - Food And Non-Alcoholic Beverages (01-02, 04, 21-23, 244): Product Flow; CPI - Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, USA XPI - Food and Beverages.
    - Alcohol and Tobacco (241-243, 25): Product Flow; CPI - Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco, USA XPI - Alcohol and Tobacco.
    - Housing (72): Reflated Volume; CPI Housing; Number of Household Electricity Customers.
    - Electricity (17, 691): Reflated Volume; CPI Electricity; KWH to Households Customers.
    - Services (92, 931, 7112, etc.): Published Value Added for Education and Health with implicit deflators; other services reflated with various CPIs and population volume indicators.
- Imports and exports deflation:
  - Imports of goods deflated using relevant USA XPI categories where available.
  - Exports deflated with a relevant CPI, IPD or USA export price index (noting many exports are re-exports).
- Intermediate Consumption (IC):
  - Estimated from relationships in the 2016 SUT between Value Added (VA) and IC, extrapolating constant price IC using growth in published constant price VA by industry.

### Experimental GDP-E results and data-quality findings
- Experimental GDP-E estimates were compiled for 2016 to 2023.
- Preliminary results:
  - Years immediately following the benchmark year (2016) show reasonable outcomes with only minor statistical discrepancies between GDP-E and GDP-P.
  - By 2018, discrepancies increase and widen through the COVID-19 pandemic, at both current and constant 2018 prices.
- Identified potential causes of discrepancies:
  - Outliers in IMTS data.
  - Volatility in domestic production.
  - Unexpected changes in certain price indices.
- Data concordance and benchmarking issues:
  - Errors discovered in the CPC-to-HS concordance used during 2016 SUT development; recommendation to use an official CPC to HS concordance produced by the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) for the next rebasing.
  - Significant differences between detailed IMTS export data received and data published by the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) at the SITC level; detailed IMTS exports were benchmarked to ECCB SITC-level data for this experimental exercise and consistency with ECCB publications is recommended going forward.

### Role of concurrent GDP-E compilation
- Concurrent compilation of GDP-E can help identify issues in GDP-P, price indices, and international trade statistics by detecting anomalies or errors in source data.
- Short-term recommendation: continue compiling experimental GDP-E as a diagnostic tool, using examples provided in the report as guidelines.

### Plan for publication and integration with rebasing
- CSO plans:
  - Conduct a Household Budget Survey (HBS) in 2025 to support SUT compilation in 2026 and GDP rebasing.
  - Expand the product dimension of the SUT to improve estimation of HFCE and GFCF in the benchmark year and subsequent GDP-E estimation.
  - Apply the existing GDP-E methodology to the rebased series to identify and correct source data errors.
  - Publish GDP-E with the next GDP rebasing.

### Priority recommendations and timing (Table 1)
- April 2025:
  - Continue compiling experimental GDP-E as a tool to detect possible data errors, using examples provided in this report as a guideline.
  - Responsible Institution: CSO
- January 2026:
  - Expand the product dimension of the upcoming SUT to improve estimation of GFCF and HFCE in both the benchmark year, and subsequent GDP-E compilation.
  - Responsible Institution: CSO
- December 2026:
  - Publish GDP-E with the next GDP rebasing, for the time period of 2016 to the most current publication year.
  - Responsible Institution: CSO

### Example compilation: HFCE — Food and Beverages (selected figures from Table 4, EC$ '000,000)
- Supply — Domestic output and imports (selected rows):
  - 1) Domestic Output Volume Index - Food Manufacturing: 96.8, 97.3, 100.0, 103.6, 84.2, 88.3, 93.3, 97.2 (2016–2023).
  - 2) SUT - Domestic production at Purchaser (2018) Prices: 811,337 (2016 benchmark).
  - 3) Extrapolated Domestic Production at Purchaser (2018) Prices: 811,337; 815,367; 838,365; 868,466; 705,720; 739,999; 782,391; 814,945 (2016–2023).
  - 4) CPI - Food and Beverages: 99.1; 98.3; 100.0; 102.2; 100.9; 101.3; 106.9; 113.9 (2016–2023).
  - 5) Domestic Production at Current Prices: 804,365; 801,483; 838,365; 887,240; 711,878; 749,487; 836,614; 927,975 (2016–2023).
  - 6) IMTS Imports of Food and Beverages: 359,066; 382,270; 392,913; 401,146; 351,299; 401,259; 522,284; 528,479 (2016–2023).
  - 8) Extrapolated Imports at Current Prices: 365,636; 389,264; 400,103; 408,485; 357,727; 408,601; 531,841; 538,148 (2016–2023).
  - 9) USA XPI - Food and Beverages: 98; 99.55; 100.00; 100.49; 100.51; 124.55; 142.14; 134.05 (2016–2023).
  - Total Supply, Current Prices: 1,170,002; 1,190,747; 1,238,468; 1,295,725; 1,069,605; 1,158,088; 1,368,455; 1,466,123 (2016–2023).
  - Total Supply, Constant Prices: 1,185,074; 1,206,377; 1,238,468; 1,274,950; 1,061,645; 1,068,066; 1,156,565; 1,216,409 (2016–2023).
- Demand — Exports, IC and total demand (selected rows):
  - 1) IMTS Exports of Food and Beverages: 64,865; 61,833; 41,303; 49,985; 35,081; 26,786; 25,425; 25,778 (2016–2023).
  - 3) Extrapolated Exports at Current Prices: 56,432; 53,795; 35,934; 43,487; 30,521; 23,304; 22,120; 22,427 (2016–2023).
  - 4) IPD - Food and Beverages: 112; 114; 100; 95; 112; 106; 95; 109 (2016–2023).
  - 6) IC of Food and Beverages by Industry (Total), SUT, 2018 Prices: 367,509 (2016 benchmark).
  - 7) Extrapolated IC, Constant Prices: 367,509; 390,165; 410,322; 420,579; 222,992; 270,545; 397,068; 432,723 (2016–2023).
  - 8) Convert to Current Prices with CPI - Food & Beverages: 370,694; 383,522; 410,322; 429,670; 224,938; 274,014; 424,587; 492,740 (2016–2023).
  - Total Demand, Current Prices: 427,126; 437,316; 446,256; 473,158; 255,459; 297,318; 446,707; 515,167 (2016–2023).
  - Total Demand, Constant Prices: 418,097; 437,313; 446,256; 466,135; 250,316; 292,457; 420,367; 453,238 (2016–2023).
- Product balance — HFCE:
  - HFCE Current (Product Balance): 742,875; 753,431; 792,212; 822,567; 814,146; 860,771; 921,748; 950,956 (2016–2023).
  - HFCE Constant (Product Balance): 766,977; 769,063; 792,212; 808,815; 811,329; 775,609; 736,198; 763,171 (2016–2023).

### Additional technical notes and next steps
- Use an official CPC to HS concordance from UNSD for next rebasing to correct discovered concordance errors.
- Use a version of IMTS consistent with ECCB publications for GDP-E compilation.
- Expand SUT product dimension in preparation for the 2026 SUT and the 2026 rebasing exercise supported by the planned 2025 HBS.
- Continue experimental GDP-E compilation through April 2025 and beyond as a quality-assurance tool, and aim to publish GDP-E with the next rebasing by December 2026.

*IMF | CARTAC Technical Assistance Report – Saint Lucia Expenditure-Based Gross Domestic Product*

### 15. There is an inconsistency between the exports in the SUT and IMTS data. For imports, the

### 15. There is an inconsistency between the exports in the SUT and IMTS data. For imports, the differences are relatively small.

### Inconsistencies and adjustments
- The mission examined the files used to compile the 2015 SUT. Adjustments were performed for both imports and exports.
- The summation of the adjustments over all products were zero, suggesting they were product balancing adjustments.
- A full analysis for the SUT was beyond the scope of the mission.
- Guidance: In cases where there is a difference between the international trade data and the value in the SUT, respect the SUT value, and use the IMTS to extrapolate.

### Implied change in inventories (CII) — population method (Table 5)
- The product flow approach does not make an adjustment for change in inventories. The CSO are not in possession of an indicator for change in inventories (CII).
- Recommendation: Ultimately publish GDP-E with a category which combines CII and statistical discrepancy. As an interim method, include an additional dimension: use population as a volume indicator to estimate constant price HFCE; the product imbalance in this case would be the implied CII.
- Table 5 key series (values by year):

  - Population
    - 2016: 176,559
    - 2017: 177,997
    - 2018: 179,344
    - 2019: 180,592
    - 2020: 181,735
    - 2021: 182,764
    - 2022: 183,675
    - 2023: 184,460

  - Extrapolate Constant Price HFCE
    - 2016: 766,977
    - 2017: 773,225
    - 2018: 779,076
    - 2019: 784,499
    - 2020: 789,462
    - 2021: 793,935
    - 2022: 797,890
    - 2023: 801,301

  - Current Price HFCE (CPI Food)
    - 2016: 742,875
    - 2017: 786,619
    - 2018: 779,076
    - 2019: 767,900
    - 2020: 782,633
    - 2021: 783,883
    - 2022: 746,176
    - 2023: 703,701

  - Total Supply, Current Prices
    - 2016: 1,170,002
    - 2017: 1,190,747
    - 2018: 1,238,468
    - 2019: 1,295,725
    - 2020: 1,069,605
    - 2021: 1,158,088
    - 2022: 1,368,455
    - 2023: 1,466,123

  - Total Demand, Current Prices
    - 2016: 1,170,002
    - 2017: 1,223,936
    - 2018: 1,225,332
    - 2019: 1,241,057
    - 2020: 1,038,091
    - 2021: 1,081,201
    - 2022: 1,192,883
    - 2023: 1,218,868

  - Implied CII % (total output), Current Prices
    - 2016: -
    - 2017: (3)
    - 2018: 1
    - 2019: 4
    - 2020: 3
    - 2021: 7
    - 2022: 13
    - 2023: 17

- Finding: The implied CII can identify possible data issues. By 2021, the implied CII grows to unreasonable levels and remains elevated for the remainder of the period. Section III will illustrate some outliers and suggest methods to investigate them.

### Estimating HFCE and GFCF for products containing both components (Tables 6 and 7)
- Problem: Some expenditure categories contain both HFCE and GFCF (Metal products CPC 41–42, ICT, Other Machinery, Transportation Equipment, Furniture, other Manufactured Goods). The product flow approach derives a product imbalance, but decomposing that imbalance between HFCE and GFCF is problematic.
- Short-term solution: Decompose based on the SUT and maintain that decomposition from 2017 to 2023.

- Table 6 — Transportation Equipment (selected figures)
  - Current Prices — Imbalance from Product Flow Approach
    - 2016: 127,219
    - 2017: 173,857
    - 2018: 142,887
    - 2019: 161,993
    - 2020: 134,522
    - 2021: 173,548
    - 2022: 168,238
    - 2023: 254,795
  - SUT Composition of HFCE vs GFCF
    - 0.39 (SUT HFCE share)
  - Current Prices — HFCE (derived using SUT composition)
    - 2016: 49,041
    - 2017: 67,018
    - 2018: 55,080
    - 2019: 62,445
    - 2020: 51,855
    - 2021: 66,899
    - 2022: 64,852
    - 2023: 98,218
  - Current Prices — GFCF (derived)
    - 2016: 78,179
    - 2017: 106,839
    - 2018: 87,807
    - 2019: 99,548
    - 2020: 82,666
    - 2021: 106,649
    - 2022: 103,386
    - 2023: 156,577

  - Constant Prices — Imbalance from Product Flow Approach
    - 2016: 125,087
    - 2017: 173,770
    - 2018: 142,887
    - 2019: 159,698
    - 2020: 129,314
    - 2021: 169,456
    - 2022: 158,617
    - 2023: 222,934
  - Constant Prices — HFCE (derived)
    - 2016: 48,219
    - 2017: 66,985
    - 2018: 55,080
    - 2019: 61,560
    - 2020: 49,848
    - 2021: 65,322
    - 2022: 61,143
    - 2023: 85,936
  - Constant Prices — GFCF (derived)
    - 2016: 76,869
    - 2017: 106,785
    - 2018: 87,807
    - 2019: 98,138
    - 2020: 79,466
    - 2021: 104,134
    - 2022: 97,473
    - 2023: 136,997

- Recommendation: Decomposition between HFCE and GFCF should be improved with next GDP rebasing. The SUT product dimension (e.g., Transportation Products) is too broad and should be disaggregated to identify products exclusively GFCF, exclusively HFCE, and those containing both.

- Table 7 — Recommended Product Detail for Transportation Equipment (selected CPC entries and classification)
  - 49111 Road tractors for semi-trailers — GFCF Only: Yes
  - 49112 Public-transport type passenger motor vehicles — GFCF Only: Yes
  - 49113 Motor cars and other motor vehicles — HFCE Only: yes
  - 49114 Motor vehicles n.e.c. for the transport of goods — GFCF Only: Yes
  - 49116 Motor vehicles, designed for travelling on snow; golf cars and similar vehicles — HFCE Only: yes
  - 496 Aircraft and spacecraft — GFCF Only: Yes
  - 4991 Motorcycles and sidecars — HFCE Only: yes
  - 4993 Vehicles n.e.c., not mechanically propelled — Both: yes

- The disaggregation exercise should also be performed for Metal products (CPC 41–42), ICT, Other Machinery, Furniture, and other Manufactured Goods.

### Estimating HFCE for categories with BOP data and compilation of international trade (Table 8)
- Air Transportation and Telecommunications have international trade flows estimated through BOP. These flows should be integrated through the product flow approach and benchmarked to the international trade of the SUT. Estimation of IC is carried out in same manner as other HFCE categories.

- BOP provides imports and exports of goods and services through the ECCB. Imports of goods are provided at free on board (FOB) so an adjustment from CIF is not necessary.
- Imports of goods at constant prices required decomposition by SITC, provided by the ECCB. Because a disproportionate number of imports are from the United States, an appropriate USA Export Price Index was retrieved and re-referenced to 2018 to derive constant price estimates.
- Imports of services from BOP were disaggregated between Air Transport, Business Services, Other Services, Sea Transport and Travel. They were deflated with an appropriate domestic CPI. This could be improved by evaluating the primary country of origin of these imports and the availability of a PPI or an IPD in that country.
- Domestic exports of goods are primarily Food, Beverages, and Tobacco; the domestic IPD for this industry was used for deflation. Remaining exports are largely re-exports and the relevant USA Export Price Index was the deflator.
- Exports of services are decomposed between travel and other services. The deflators were the PPI Accommodation, and CPI Services respectively.

- Table 8 — Selected international trade aggregates (EC$ Millions), Current Prices
  - Exports of Goods, BOP
    - 2016: 243
    - 2017: 253
    - 2018: 190
    - 2019: 246
    - 2020: 164
    - 2021: 233
    - 2022: 367
    - 2023: 408
  - Exports of Services, BOP
    - 2016: 2,239
    - 2017: 2,545
    - 2018: 2,818
    - 2019: 3,018
    - 2020: 1,054
    - 2021: 1,686
    - 2022: 3,133
    - 2023: 3,359
  - Imports of Goods, BOP (FOB)
    - 2016: 1,555
    - 2017: 1,556
    - 2018: 1,565
    - 2019: 1,533
    - 2020: 1,309
    - 2021: 1,593
    - 2022: 2,010
    - 2023: 2,395
  - Imports of Services, BOP
    - 2016: 943
    - 2017: 1,029
    - 2018: 1,098
    - 2019: 1,214
    - 2020: 621
    - 2021: 815
    - 2022: 1,214
    - 2023: 1,348

- Deflators and USA XPI series (selected)
  - IPD Food, Beverages and Tobacco (2016–2023): 112, 114, 100, 95, 112, 106, 95, 109
  - PPI Accommodation (2016–2023): 88, 95, 100, 97, 110, 111, 118, 111
  - CPI Air Transport (2016–2023): 83, 96, 100, 99, 86, 103, 97, 106
  - USA XPI - Food and Beverages (2016–2023): 98, 100, 100, 100, 101, 125, 142, 134
  - USA XPI - Automotive Vehicles (2016–2023): 99, 99, 100, 100, 100, 101, 106, 109

- Constant price aggregates (selected)
  - Exports of Goods (constant prices)
    - 2016: 243
    - 2017: 250
    - 2018: 190
    - 2019: 253
    - 2020: 169
    - 2021: 219
    - 2022: 308
    - 2023: 349
  - Exports of Services (constant prices)
    - 2016: 2,534
    - 2017: 2,676
    - 2018: 2,818
    - 2019: 3,117
    - 2020: 969
    - 2021: 1,536
    - 2022: 2,686
    - 2023: 3,026
  - Imports of Goods (constant prices)
    - 2016: 1,749
    - 2017: 1,635
    - 2018: 1,565
    - 2019: 1,570
    - 2020: 1,436
    - 2021: 1,416
    - 2022: 1,498
    - 2023: 1,953
  - Imports of Services (constant prices)
    - 2016: 960
    - 2017: 1,022
    - 2018: 1,098
    - 2019: 1,207
    - 2020: 629
    - 2021: 818
    - 2022: 1,174
    - 2023: 1,239

### Recommended Actions (explicit list from the report)
- Use the recommendations in Table 2 to compile experimental GDP-E, concurrently with GDP-P, as a tool for improving the quality of GDP-P.
- Use a weighted IPD between Public Administration and Defense, Public Health, and Public Education to derive constant price GFCE.
- Apply the product flow method as illustrated in Table 3 to estimate HFCE for products without a GFCF component.
- For products with both an HFCE and GFCF component, use the 2016 SUT to decompose, and extrapolate value added using the product flow method.
- For the next GDP rebasing, further disaggregate the product dimension of the SUT for Metals, ICT, Transportation Equipment, Machinery, Furniture and Other Manufactured goods, using Table 7 as a guide, to improve HFCE and GFCF estimation in subsequent GDP-E.
- Integrate BOP data on international trade in services to estimate HFCE of Air Transportation and Telecommunications.
- Decompose imports of goods by SITC and use the relevant USA Export Price Index to convert to constant prices.
- Evaluate the country origin of imports of services and determine if an appropriate deflator from that country is available.
- Use a version of the IMTS which is consistent with the ECCB publication for GDP-E compilation.

*IMF | CARTAC Technical Assistance Report – Saint Lucia Expenditure-Based Gross Domestic Product*

### Section III. Broad Levels Results and Evaluating Outliers

### Section III. Broad Levels Results and Evaluating Outliers

### Experimental GDP-E Series (2016–2023)
- Published Production GDP (EC$ Millions):
  - 2016: 5045
  - 2017: 5396
  - 2018: 5565
  - 2019: 5659
  - 2020: 4041
  - 2021: 5028
  - 2022: 6309
  - 2023: 6588
- Preliminary Expenditure GDP Estimates (EC$ Millions):
  - 2016: 5049
  - 2017: 5443
  - 2018: 6021
  - 2019: 5737
  - 2020: 4971
  - 2021: 5595
  - 2022: 7046
  - 2023: 7002
- Household Final Consumption (EC$ Millions):
  - 2016: 3064
  - 2017: 3136
  - 2018: 3651
  - 2019: 3494
  - 2020: 3571
  - 2021: 3764
  - 2022: 4459
  - 2023: 4660
- Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EC$ Millions):
  - 2016: 1288
  - 2017: 1369
  - 2018: 1273
  - 2019: 966
  - 2020: 1246
  - 2021: 1424
  - 2022: 1432
  - 2023: 1432
  - Structures: 2016: 575; 2017: 643; 2018: 565; 2019: 566; 2020: 581; 2021: 680; 2022: 694; 2023: 725
  - Machinery and Other: 2016: 712; 2017: 726; 2018: 708; 2019: 400; 2020: 664; 2021: 744; 2022: 738; 2023: 706
- Government Final Expenditure, NPISH, Valuables (EC$ Millions):
  - 2016: 713
  - 2017: 727
  - 2018: 752
  - 2019: 760
  - 2020: 865
  - 2021: 896
  - 2022: 880
  - 2023: 885
- Net Trade (EC$ Millions):
  - 2016: -16
  - 2017: 212
  - 2018: 345
  - 2019: 517
  - 2020: -711
  - 2021: -489
  - 2022: 274
  - 2023: 25
  - Exports of Goods: 2016: 243; 2017: 253; 2018: 190; 2019: 246; 2020: 164; 2021: 233; 2022: 367; 2023: 408
  - Exports of Services: 2016: 2239; 2017: 2545; 2018: 2818; 2019: 3018; 2020: 1054; 2021: 1686; 2022: 3133; 2023: 3359
  - Imports of Goods (FOB): 2016: 1555; 2017: 1556; 2018: 1565; 2019: 1533; 2020: 1309; 2021: 1593; 2022: 2010; 2023: 2395
  - Imports of Services: 2016: 943; 2017: 1029; 2018: 1098; 2019: 1214; 2020: 621; 2021: 815; 2022: 1214; 2023: 1348
- Change in Inventory/Discrepancy, %, relative to GDP-P:
  - 2016: 1.00
  - 2017: 1.01
  - 2018: 1.08
  - 2019: 1.01
  - 2020: 1.23
  - 2021: 1.11
  - 2022: 1.12
  - 2023: 1.06

### Outliers and Issues Identified
- 2018 HFCE anomalies:
  - HFCE in 2018 grows much faster than headline GDP, increasing the discrepancy between GDP-E and GDP-P to eight percent.
  - Drivers identified: HFCE in Housing and HFCE in Metal Products.
- HFCE Housing calculations (selected elements):
  - Number of Residential Electricity Customers (2016–2018): 58,867; 59,620; 60,726
  - HFCE Housing - SUT (2018 Prices): 714,722
  - Extrapolate Constant Prices: 714,722; 723,864; 737,293
  - CPI Housing (2016–2018): 76; 83; 100
  - HFCE Housing - Current Prices (2016–2018): 540,039; 599,576; 737,293
- HFCE Metal Products calculations (selected elements):
  - Domestic Production - Volume Index: 480,467; 544,516
  - IMTS Imports: 661,587; 779,890
  - IMTS Exports: 82,378; 46,608
  - IC Current Prices: 1,018,923; 987,850
  - HFCE Current Prices: 40,753; 289,948
- CPI Housing outlier:
  - ECCB published CPI for Housing increase for the entire Eastern Caribbean: 4.6 percent
  - Saint Lucia CPI Housing increase reported: 20 percent
  - Conclusion: CPI Housing between 2017 and 2018 is an outlier; large Saint Lucia CPI increase drives large HFCE Housing increase.
- Other anomalies (2018–2019):
  - Significant decreases in HFCE and GFCF in Machinery and Other in 2019 warrant further investigation.
  - Outliers concentrated in Other Manufacturing Products.

### Product Flow and Specific Case Investigations
- Product flow, Other Manufactured Products (selected items):
  - Volume Index - Domestic Output of Other Manufacturing Products (2016–2020): 94; 94; 100; 100; 100
  - IMTS Imports (2016–2020): 20,005; 21,926; 20,586; 24,524; 33,612
  - IMTS Exports (2016–2020): 1,550; 1,817; 1,201; 26,883; 72
  - HFCE Metal Products - Current Prices (2016–2020): 18,495; 18,408; 20,844; (59,365); 27,585
  - GFCF Metal Products - Current Prices (2016–2020): 65,799; 65,488; 74,155; (211,197); 98,136
- Exports of paintings identified as cause of HFCE and GFCF issue:
  - Detailed HS data revealed a dramatic increase in exports of Other Manufactured Products due to the export of a painting.
  - Treatment depends on whether the painting is:
    - An existing valuable (change in ownership of a previously produced asset) — recorded as an export with an accompanying decrease in CII or acquisition less disposals of valuables, hence GDP neutral.
    - Newly produced — would require adjustment to output and VA of Other Manufacturing.
  - Implication: concurrent compilation of GDP-E helps identify such anomalies for investigation and correction.

### Impact on Discrepancy between GDP-E and GDP-P
- Discrepancy behavior:
  - 2018: Discrepancy increased to eight percent (linked to HFCE outliers).
  - 2019: Discrepancy falls to one percent.
- Observations:
  - Concurrent GDP-E compilation is useful to detect outliers such as large CPI movements, atypical trade flows, and single-event exports (e.g., paintings) that materially affect HFCE and GFCF estimates.
  - Some observed contractions in published value added (VA), notably in construction, are at odds with product indicators (availability of building materials), indicating areas for further reconciliation.

### Recommended Actions and Detailed Technical Assessment
- Immediate operational recommendation:
  - The CSO should use the examples in Tables 10 and 11 to help identify, investigate, and fix outliers in concurrent GDP-E compilation.
- Objective: Strengthen compilation and dissemination of National Production, Income and Expenditure Accounts.
- Outcome: Developed and released a new vintage of annual expenditures of GDP at current and constant prices.
- Priority milestones (selected from Table 12):
  - GDP-E at current prices and constant prices are published.
    - Target Completion Date: 4/30/2026
    - Actual completion date: On-going
  - Experimental GDP-E is compiled concurrently with GDP-P.
    - Target Completion Date: 4/30/2025
    - Actual completion date: On-going

### Summary of Recommendations (Table 13)
- High priority (H) recommendations and target completion dates:
  - Compile experimental GDP-E as a tool to detect possible data errors, using examples provided in this report as a guideline. — April 2025
  - Expand the product dimension of the upcoming SUT to improve estimation of GFCF and HFCE in both the benchmark year, and subsequent GDP-E compilation. — January 2026
  - Publish GDP-E with the next GDP rebasing, for the time period of 2016 to the most current publication year. — December 2026
  - Apply the product flow method as illustrated in Table 3 to estimate HFCE for products without a GFCF component. — April 2025
  - For products with both an HFCE and GFCF component, use the 2016 SUT to decompose, and extrapolate value added using the product flow method. — April 2025
  - Decompose imports of goods by SITC and use the relevant USA Export Price Index to convert to constant prices. — April 2025
  - Use the examples in Tables 10 and 11 to help identify, investigate, fix outliers in concurrent GDP-E compilation. — April 2025
- Medium priority (M) recommendations and target completion dates:
  - Use a weighted IPD between Public Administration and Defense, Public Health, and Public Education to derive constant price GFCE. — April 2025
  - Integrate BOP data on international trade in services to estimate HFCE of Air Transportation and Telecommunications. — April 2025
  - Evaluate the country origin of imports of services and determine if an appropriate deflator from that country is available. — April 2025
  - Use a version of the IMTS which is consistent with the ECCB publication for GDP-E compilation. — December 2026

*IMF | CARTAC Technical Assistance Report – Saint Lucia Expenditure-Based Gross Domestic Product — Section III.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/tar/2025/english/tarea2025052-print-pdf.pdf_