## statapp

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---

### Interest rate assumptions and short-term deposit projections
- Three-month euro deposits will average –0.3 percent in 2019 and –0.2 percent in 2020.
- Six-month yen deposits will average 0.0 percent in 2019 and 2020, respectively.
- London interbank offered rate on six-month US dollar deposits is assumed to average 3.2 percent in 2019 and 3.8 percent in 2020.
- The document references "3.8 percent in 2020" in context (excerpt begins with "3.8 percent in 2020, that three-month euro deposits will...").

### Euro introduction and irrevocably fixed conversion rates (effective January 1, 1999)
- 1 euro = 13.7603 Austrian schillings
- 1 euro = 40.3399 Belgian francs
- 1 euro = 0.585274 Cyprus pound
- 1 euro = 1.95583 Deutsche marks
- 1 euro = 15.6466 Estonian krooni
- 1 euro = 5.94573 Finnish markkaa
- 1 euro = 6.55957 French francs
- 1 euro = 340.750 Greek drachmas
- 1 euro = 0.787564 Irish pound
- 1 euro = 1,936.27 Italian lire
- 1 euro = 0.702804 Latvian lat
- 1 euro = 3.45280 Lithuanian litas
- 1 euro = 40.3399 Luxembourg francs
- 1 euro = 0.42930 Maltese lira
- 1 euro = 2.20371 Netherlands guilders
- 1 euro = 200.482 Portuguese escudos
- 1 euro = 30.1260 Slovak koruna
- 1 euro = 239.640 Slovenian tolars
- 1 euro = 166.386 Spanish pesetas
- Notes on establishments:
  - Established on January 1, 2008.
  - Established on January 1, 2011.
  - Established on January 1, 2001.
  - Established on January 1, 2014.
  - Established on January 1, 2015.
  - Established on January 1, 2009.
  - Established on January 1, 2007.

### Data scope, conventions, and composite construction
- Data and projections for 194 economies form the statistical basis of the WEO database.
- Most countries’ macroeconomic data in the WEO conform broadly to the 2008 version of the System of National Accounts (SNA).
- IMF sector statistical standards referenced: BPM6, MFSMCG, and GFSM 2014; these have been or are being aligned with SNA 2008.
- Composite data rules:
  - Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to US dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.
  - Composites for other domestic economy data are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total world or group GDP.
  - Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data for the emerging market and developing economies group—except data on inflation and money growth, for which geometric averages are used.
  - Annual inflation rates are simple percentage changes from the previous years, except in the case of emerging market and developing economies, for which the rates are based on logarithmic differences.
  - Unless noted otherwise, group composites are computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group weights is represented.
- Data refer to calendar years, except for a few countries that use fiscal years; Table F lists exceptional reporting periods.

### Fiscal and debt data cautions and net debt definition
- Fiscal gross and net debt data reported in the WEO are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates.
- Attempts are made to align gross and net debt data with the definitions in the GFSM; however, data limitations or specific country circumstances can lead to deviations.
- Net debt is calculated as gross debt minus financial assets corresponding to debt instruments.
- Changes in data sources or instrument coverage can give rise to sometimes substantial data revisions.
- Estimates of the output gap and of the structural balance are subject to significant margins of uncertainty.

### Country-specific data and methodological notes (selected)
- Argentina:
  - Consumer price data before December 2013 reflect CPI-GBA; December 2013–October 2015 reflect IPCNu; a new CPI for the Greater Buenos Aires Area was released on June 15, 2016; a new national CPI disseminated starting in June 2017.
  - IMF Executive Board considered the new CPI series in line with international standards at its November 9, 2016 meeting; average CPI inflation for 2014, 2015, and 2016 and end-of-period inflation for 2015 and 2016 are not reported in the April 2019 WEO.
  - Authorities discontinued publication of labor market data in December 2015 and released new series starting in the second quarter of 2016.
- India: Real GDP growth rates are calculated as per national accounts: for 1998 to 2011 with base year 2004/05 and, thereafter, with base year 2011/12.
- Libya: Reliability of data, especially medium-term projections, is low given civil war and weak capacity.
- Syria: Data are excluded from 2011 onward because of the uncertain political situation.
- Trinidad and Tobago: Growth estimates for 2018 are based on full-year energy sector data from the Ministry of Energy and Ministry of Finance, preliminary national accounts data for the first three quarters, and staff projections for fourth-quarter nonenergy output.
- Uruguay: Starting from October 2018, Uruguay’s public pension system has been receiving transfers in the context of a new law that compensates persons affected by the creation of the mixed pension system.

### Venezuela: data limitations and implications for projections
- Transfers equivalent to 1.3 percent of GDP in 2018 are recorded as revenue, consistent with IMF methodology; data and projections for 2018–22 are affected by these transfers.
- Projections and assessment of past and current economic developments are complicated by:
  - Lack of discussions with the authorities (the last Article IV consultation took place in 2004).
  - Incomplete understanding of the reported data and difficulties in interpreting certain reported economic indicators given economic developments.
  - The effects of hyperinflation and paucity of reported data, which mean IMF staff’s projected macroeconomic indicators need to be interpreted with caution.
- Fiscal accounts coverage and data status:
  - Fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government; social security; FOGADE (insurance deposit institution); and a sample of public enterprises, including Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA).
  - Data for 2018–24 are IMF staff estimates.
- Specific methodological notes used in projections:
  - Nominal GDP is estimated assuming the GDP deflator rises in line with the IMF staff’s projection of average inflation.
  - Public external debt in relation to GDP is projected using the IMF staff’s estimate of the average exchange rate for the year.
- Venezuela’s consumer prices (CPI) are excluded from all WEO group composites.

### Country classification and group counts
- The WEO divides the world into two major groups: advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies.
- Advanced Economies: 39
- Emerging Market and Developing Economies: 155
- Major Advanced Economies (G7): 7
- The group of emerging market and developing economies (155) is subbroken into: Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS); emerging and developing Asia; emerging and developing Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC); Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP); and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
- Analytical classifications include source of export earnings (fuel vs. nonfuel), financial criteria (net creditor/debtor, HIPCs, LIDCs), and other categorizations (for example, LIDCs defined as countries with per capita income levels below $2,700 in 2016 (Atlas method)).

### Fiscal policy assumptions and country examples
- Short-term fiscal policy assumptions are normally based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between national authorities and IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns.
- When no official budget has been announced, projections incorporate policy measures judged likely to be implemented.
- If IMF staff has insufficient information to assess authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed unless indicated otherwise.
- Selected country examples of fiscal-projection bases (preserved verbatim):
  - Argentina: Fiscal projections based on available information regarding budget outturn and budget plans for the federal and provincial governments, fiscal measures announced by the authorities, and IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections.
  - Australia: Fiscal projections based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the fiscal year 2018/19 budgets of the Commonwealth and states and territories, 2018/19 midyear fiscal and economic reviews by states and territories, and IMF staff estimates and projections.
  - Belgium: Projections are based on the 2018–21 Stability Programme and other available information.
  - Puerto Rico: Fiscal projections are based on the Puerto Rico Fiscal and Economic Growth Plans (FEGPs), which were prepared in October 2018, and are certified by the Oversight Board. Projections assume federal aid for rebuilding after Hurricane Maria. IMF projections are on an accrual basis; the FEGPs are on a cash basis.

### Monetary policy assumptions and selected numerical paths (country-level and global)
- Monetary policy assumptions follow established frameworks in each country, typically implying a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle.
- Cross-country short-term rate assumptions explicitly stated:
  - London interbank offered rate on six-month US dollar deposits is assumed to average 3.2 percent in 2019 and 3.8 percent in 2020.
  - The rate on three-month euro deposits is assumed to average –0.3 percent in 2019 and –0.2 percent in 2020.
  - The interest rate on six-month Japanese yen deposits is assumed to average 0.0 percent in 2019 and 2020.
- Selected country-level monetary policy assumptions (preserved verbatim):
  - Argentina: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with the current monetary policy framework, which targets zero base money growth in seasonally adjusted terms.
  - China: Monetary policy is expected to remain on hold.
  - Denmark: The monetary policy is to maintain the peg to the euro.
  - Saudi Arabia: Monetary policy projections are based on the continuation of the exchange rate peg to the US dollar.
  - Switzerland: The projections assume no change in the policy rate in 2018–19.
  - United States: The IMF staff expects continued gradual normalization of the federal funds target rate, in line with the broader macroeconomic outlook.

### Key projection highlights and numeric assumptions from tables (selected)
- World output (Table A1): World growth projections include 3.6 percent for 2019 and 3.3 percent for 2020.
- Advanced Economies: Real GDP projections include 1.8 percent for 2019 and 1.6 percent for 2020 (Table A2).
- Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP projections include 4.5 percent for 2019 and 4.4 percent for 2020 (Table A4 / Table A15).
- Consumer price assumptions: London interbank six-month USD deposits average assumed at 3.2 percent in 2019 and 3.8 percent in 2020; euro three-month deposits at –0.3 percent in 2019 and –0.2 percent in 2020; six-month JPY deposits at 0.0 percent in 2019 and 2020.
- Fiscal balances and debt (selected major advanced economies, Table A8):
  - United States: Net Debt 47.8 80.9 80.5 80.4 81.7 80.7 80.9 83.4 86.2 94.3; Gross Debt 68.3 104.8 104.4 104.7 106.9 106.2 105.8 106.7 107.5 110.3.
  - Italy: Net Debt 95.7 116.7 118.8 119.5 118.9 119.0 119.0 120.1 121.5 122.5; Gross Debt 104.2 129.0 131.8 131.6 131.3 131.3 132.1 133.4 134.1 138.5.
  - Japan: Net Debt 99.9 146.4 148.5 147.8 152.6 151.1 153.2 153.6 153.2 154.5; Gross Debt 175.9 232.5 236.1 231.6 236.3 235.0 237.1 237.5 237.0 238.3.
- Trade and commodity price signals (Table A9 excerpts):
  - World trade volume annual percent change (goods and services): 3.4 percent (2018) and projections 3.4 percent (2019), 3.9 percent (2020).
  - Average oil price (percent change of average of UK Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate): reported numeric series include 23.3 29.4 –13.4 –0.2 in the sequence for certain years (preserved as presented).
- Current account and external positions:
  - United States current account levels (billions of US dollars) include –445.7 –426.8 –348.8 –365.2 –407.8 –432.9 –449.1 –468.8 –513.4 –583.3 –548.8 (as reported in the table sequence).

### What’s New (selected)
- FYR Macedonia is now called North Macedonia.
- In February 2019, Zimbabwe adopted a new local currency unit, the RTGS dollar, which has become the official unit of account. Efforts are underway to revise and update all national accounts series to the new RTGS dollar. Current data are based on IMF staff estimates of price and exchange rate developments in US (and RTGS) dollars. Staff estimates of US dollar values may differ from authorities’ estimates.

*Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/statapp.pdf*

### 3.8 percent in 2020, that three-month euro deposits will

### statapp - 3.8 percent in 2020, that three-month euro deposits will

### Interest rate assumptions and short-term deposit projections
- Three-month euro deposits will average –0.3 percent in 2019 and –0.2 percent in 2020.
- Six-month yen deposits will average 0.0 percent in 2019 and 2020, respectively.
- The document references "3.8 percent in 2020" in context (excerpt begins with "3.8 percent in 2020, that three-month euro deposits will...").

### Euro introduction and irrevocably fixed conversion rates (effective January 1, 1999)
- 1 euro = 13.7603 Austrian schillings
- 1 euro = 40.3399 Belgian francs
- 1 euro = 0.585274 Cyprus pound
- 1 euro = 1.95583 Deutsche marks
- 1 euro = 15.6466 Estonian krooni
- 1 euro = 5.94573 Finnish markkaa
- 1 euro = 6.55957 French francs
- 1 euro = 340.750 Greek drachmas
- 1 euro = 0.787564 Irish pound
- 1 euro = 1,936.27 Italian lire
- 1 euro = 0.702804 Latvian lat
- 1 euro = 3.45280 Lithuanian litas
- 1 euro = 40.3399 Luxembourg francs
- 1 euro = 0.42930 Maltese lira
- 1 euro = 2.20371 Netherlands guilders
- 1 euro = 200.482 Portuguese escudos
- 1 euro = 30.1260 Slovak koruna
- 1 euro = 239.640 Slovenian tolars
- 1 euro = 166.386 Spanish pesetas

Notes on establishments:
- Established on January 1, 2008.
- Established on January 1, 2011.
- Established on January 1, 2001.
- Established on January 1, 2014.
- Established on January 1, 2015.
- Established on January 1, 2009.
- Established on January 1, 2007.

### What’s New (selected)
- FYR Macedonia is now called North Macedonia.
- In February 2019, Zimbabwe adopted a new local currency unit, the RTGS dollar, which has become the official unit of account. Efforts are underway to revise and update all national accounts series to the new RTGS dollar. Current data are based on IMF staff estimates of price and exchange rate developments in US (and RTGS) dollars. Staff estimates of US dollar values may differ from authorities’ estimates.

### Data and Conventions — scope and methodological alignment
- Data and projections for 194 economies form the statistical basis of the WEO database.
- Data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and regional departments.
- Most countries’ macroeconomic data in the WEO conform broadly to the 2008 version of the System of National Accounts (SNA).
- IMF sector statistical standards referenced: BPM6, MFSMCG, and GFSM 2014; these have been or are being aligned with SNA 2008.
- The WEO estimates are only partially adapted to these manuals; full concordance depends on provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data.
- Composite data rules:
  - Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to US dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.
  - Composites for other domestic economy data are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total world or group GDP.
  - Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data for the emerging market and developing economies group—except data on inflation and money growth, for which geometric averages are used.
  - Annual inflation rates are simple percentage changes from the previous years, except in the case of emerging market and developing economies, for which the rates are based on logarithmic differences.
  - Unless noted otherwise, group composites are computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group weights is represented.
- Data refer to calendar years, except for a few countries that use fiscal years; Table F lists exceptional reporting periods.

### Fiscal and debt data cautions
- Fiscal gross and net debt data reported in the WEO are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates.
- Attempts are made to align gross and net debt data with the definitions in the GFSM; however, data limitations or specific country circumstances can lead to deviations.
- Changes in data sources or instrument coverage can give rise to sometimes substantial data revisions.

### Country notes — selected exceptions and methodological points
- Argentina: Consumer price data before December 2013 reflect CPI-GBA; December 2013–October 2015 reflect IPCNu; a new CPI for the Greater Buenos Aires Area was released on June 15, 2016; a new national CPI disseminated starting in June 2017. IMF Executive Board considered the new CPI series in line with international standards at its November 9, 2016 meeting; average CPI inflation for 2014, 2015, and 2016 and end-of-period inflation for 2015 and 2016 are not reported in the April 2019 WEO.
- Argentina: Authorities discontinued publication of labor market data in December 2015 and released new series starting in the second quarter of 2016.
- India: Real GDP growth rates are calculated as per national accounts: for 1998 to 2011 with base year 2004/05 and, thereafter, with base year 2011/12.
- Libya: Reliability of data, especially medium-term projections, is low given civil war and weak capacity.
- Syria: Data are excluded from 2011 onward because of the uncertain political situation.
- Trinidad and Tobago: Growth estimates for 2018 are based on full-year energy sector data from the Ministry of Energy and Ministry of Finance, preliminary national accounts data for the first three quarters, and staff projections for fourth-quarter nonenergy output.
- Uruguay: Starting from October 2018, Uruguay’s public pension system has been receiving transfers in the context of a new law that compensates persons affected by the creation of the mixed pension system.

*Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/statapp.pdf*

### 1.3 percent of GDP in 2018). These funds are recorded

### statapp - 1.3 percent of GDP in 2018). These funds are recorded

### Venezuela: data limitations and implications for projections
- Transfers equivalent to 1.3 percent of GDP in 2018 are recorded as revenue, consistent with IMF methodology; data and projections for 2018–22 are affected by these transfers.
- Projections and assessment of past and current economic developments are complicated by:
  - Lack of discussions with the authorities (the last Article IV consultation took place in 2004).
  - Incomplete understanding of the reported data and difficulties in interpreting certain reported economic indicators given economic developments.
  - The effects of hyperinflation and paucity of reported data, which mean IMF staff’s projected macroeconomic indicators need to be interpreted with caution.
- Fiscal accounts coverage and data status:
  - Fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government; social security; FOGADE (insurance deposit institution); and a sample of public enterprises, including Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA).
  - Data for 2018–24 are IMF staff estimates.
- Specific methodological notes used in projections:
  - Nominal GDP is estimated assuming the GDP deflator rises in line with the IMF staff’s projection of average inflation.
  - Public external debt in relation to GDP is projected using the IMF staff’s estimate of the average exchange rate for the year.
- Venezuela’s consumer prices (CPI) are excluded from all WEO group composites.

### Classification of countries in the World Economic Outlook (WEO)
- The WEO divides the world into two major groups: advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies.
- The classification:
  - Is not based on strict criteria, economic or otherwise, and has evolved over time.
  - Aims to facilitate analysis by organizing data into meaningful groups.
  - Excludes some countries from analysis when they are not IMF members or not monitored by the IMF (examples: Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea).

### General features: advanced economies
- The 39 advanced economies are listed in Table B.
- The seven largest in terms of GDP based on market exchange rates—the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies, often referred to as the Group of Seven (G7).
- The members of the euro area are distinguished as a subgroup; composite data shown for the euro area cover the current members for all years.

### General features: emerging market and developing economies
- The group of emerging market and developing economies (155) includes all those that are not classified as advanced economies.
- Regional breakdowns of emerging market and developing economies: Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS); emerging and developing Asia; emerging and developing Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC); Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP); and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
- Analytical classifications:
  - By source of export earnings: fuel (SITC 3) and nonfuel, with a focus on nonfuel primary products (SITCs 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68). Economies are categorized if their main source of export earnings exceeded 50 percent of total exports on average between 2013 and 2017.
  - By financial criteria: net creditor economies, net debtor economies, heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), and low-income developing countries (LIDCs).
  - Net debtor economies are classified when the latest net international investment position (where available) was less than zero or when current account balance accumulations from 1972 (or earliest available data) to 2017 were negative; net debtor economies are further differentiated on the basis of experience with debt servicing.
  - The HIPC group comprises countries considered by the IMF and the World Bank for participation in the HIPC Initiative.
  - LIDCs are countries with per capita income levels below $2,700 in 2016 (Atlas method), structural features consistent with limited development, and external financial linkages insufficiently close to be widely seen as emerging markets.

### Key table highlights and data points (as presented)
- Classification overview: Table A provides counts and relative-size indicators by region and group (GDP at PPP, exports of goods and services, and population).
- Notable counts and labels:
  - Advanced Economies: 39
  - Emerging Market and Developing Economies: 155
  - Major Advanced Economies (G7): 7
- Selected excerpts as presented in the source (verbatim numeric presentations preserved where shown):
  - "Advanced Economies39100.040.8100.063.0100.014.3"
  - "Emerging Market and Developing Economies155100.059.2100.037.0100.085.7"
- Regional and subgroup listings, analytical group definitions, and country membership are detailed in Tables B–E, and exceptional reporting periods are listed in Table F.
- Documentation of data sources, base years, statistical manuals in use, subsector coverage, and accounting practice for national accounts, prices (CPI), government finance, and balance of payments are provided in Table G.

### Fiscal policy assumptions used in the WEO
- Short-term fiscal policy assumptions are normally based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between national authorities and IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns.
- When no official budget has been announced, projections incorporate policy measures judged likely to be implemented.
- Medium-term fiscal projections are based on a judgment about the most likely path of policies.
- If IMF staff has insufficient information to assess authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed unless indicated otherwise.
- Country-specific examples of assumptions:
  - Argentina: Fiscal projections based on available information regarding budget outturn and budget plans for the federal and provincial governments, fiscal measures announced by the authorities, and IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections.
  - Australia: Fiscal projections based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the fiscal year 2018/19 budgets of the Commonwealth and states and territories, 2018/19 midyear fiscal and economic reviews by states and territories, and IMF staff estimates and projections.
  - Austria: Fiscal projections based on data from Statistics Austria, the authorities’ projections, and IMF staff estimates and projections.
  - Belgium: Projections are based on the 2018–21 Stability Programme and other available information.

*Source: STATISTICAL APPENDIX, World Economic Outlook: Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery (April 2019).*

### Annex I of the October 1993 WEO.) Net debt is calculated as

### Annex I: Net debt definition and policy assumptions underlying WEO projections

### Net debt and uncertainty
- Net debt is calculated as gross debt minus financial assets corresponding to debt instruments.
- Estimates of the output gap and of the structural balance are subject to significant margins of uncertainty.

### Fiscal assumptions and country-specific projection bases
- Projections generally rely on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for the IMF staff’s assumptions.
- Selected country notes (projection base or key assumptions preserved exactly as in source):
  - Brazil: Fiscal projections for 2019 take into account the deficit target approved in the budget law.
  - Canada: Projections use the baseline forecasts in the 2018 federal budget and the latest provincial budget updates as available. The IMF staff makes some adjustments to these forecasts, including for differences in macroeconomic projections. The IMF staff’s forecast also incorporates the most recent data releases from Statistics Canada’s Canadian System of National Economic Accounts, including federal, provincial, and territorial budgetary outturns through the third quarter of 2018.
  - Chile: Projections are based on the authorities’ budget projections, adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s projections for GDP and copper prices.
  - China: Fiscal expansion is expected for 2019 as a result of personal income tax reform and other measures to respond to economic slowdown.
  - Denmark: Estimates for 2018 are aligned with the latest official budget numbers, adjusted where appropriate for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions. For 2019, the projections incorporate key features of the medium-term fiscal plan as embodied in the authorities’ Convergence Programme 2018 submitted to the European Union.
  - France: Projections for 2018 and beyond are based on the measures of the 2018 budget law, the multiyear law for 2018–22, and the 2019 budget law adjusted for differences in assumptions on macroeconomic and financial variables, and revenue projections. Historical fiscal data reflect the September 2018 revisions and update of the historical fiscal accounts, debt data, and national accounts.
  - Germany: The IMF staff’s projections for 2019 and beyond are based on the 2019 Draft Budgetary Plan and data updates from the national statistical agency, adjusted for the differences in the IMF staff’s macroeconomic framework and assumptions concerning revenue elasticities. The estimate of gross debt includes portfolios of impaired assets and noncore business transferred to institutions that are winding up, as well as other financial sector and EU support operations.
  - Greece: Greece’s general government primary balance estimate for 2018 is based on preliminary data up to November 2018, provided by the Ministry of Finance as of February 1, 2019. Historical data since 2010 reflect adjustments in line with the primary balance definition under the enhanced surveillance framework for Greece.
  - Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Projections are based on the authorities’ medium-term fiscal projections on expenditures.
  - Hungary: Fiscal projections include the IMF staff’s projections of the macroeconomic framework and of the impact of recent legislative measures, as well as fiscal policy plans announced in the 2018 budget.
  - India: Historical data are based on budgetary execution data. Projections are based on available information on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for the IMF staff’s assumptions. Subnational data are incorporated with a lag of up to one year; general government data are thus finalized well after central government data. IMF and Indian presentations differ, particularly regarding divestment and license auction proceeds, net versus gross recording of revenues in certain minor categories, and some public sector lending.
  - Indonesia: IMF projections are based on moderate tax policy and administration reforms and a gradual increase in social and capital spending over the medium term in line with fiscal space.
  - Ireland: Fiscal projections are based on the country’s Budget 2019.
  - Israel: Historical data are based on Government Finance Statistics data prepared by the Central Bureau of Statistics. The central government deficit is assumed to increase to 3.5 percent of GDP in 2019. It is assumed to decline afterward, but not in line with medium-term fiscal targets, consistent with long experience of revisions to those targets.
  - Italy: The IMF staff’s estimates and projections are informed by the fiscal plans included in the government’s 2019 draft budget. The IMF staff assumes that the automatic value-added tax hikes for next year will be canceled.
  - Japan: The projections reflect fiscal measures already announced by the government, including the consumption tax hike in October 2019 and the mitigating measures included in the FY2019 budget and tax reform.
  - Korea: The medium-term forecast incorporates the medium-term path for public spending announced by the government.
  - Mexico: Fiscal projections for 2018 are broadly in line with the approved budget; projections for 2019 and beyond assume compliance with rules established in the Fiscal Responsibility Law.
  - Netherlands: Fiscal projections for 2018–24 are based on the authorities’ Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis budget projections, after adjustment for differences in macroeconomic assumptions. Historical data were revised following the June 2014 Central Bureau of Statistics release of revised macroeconomic data because of the adoption of ESA 2010 and the revisions of data sources.
  - New Zealand: Fiscal projections are based on the fiscal year 2018/19 budget and 2018 Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update and the IMF staff’s estimates.
  - Portugal: The projections for the current year are based on the authorities’ approved budget, adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s macroeconomic forecast. Projections thereafter are based on the assumption of unchanged policies.
  - Puerto Rico: Fiscal projections are based on the Puerto Rico Fiscal and Economic Growth Plans (FEGPs), which were prepared in October 2018, and are certified by the Oversight Board. In line with this plan’s assumptions, IMF projections assume federal aid for rebuilding after Hurricane Maria, which devastated the island in September 2017. The projections also assume revenue losses from the following: elimination of federal funding for the Affordable Care Act starting in 2020 for Puerto Rico; elimination of federal tax incentives starting in 2018 that had neutralized the effects of Puerto Rico’s Act 154 on foreign firms; and the effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which reduce the tax advantage of US firms producing in Puerto Rico. Given sizable policy uncertainty, some FEGP and IMF assumptions may differ, in particular those relating to the effects of the corporate tax reform, tax compliance, and tax adjustments (fees and rates); reduction of subsidies and expenses, freezing of payroll operational costs, and improvement of mobility; reduction of expenses; and increased health care efficiency. On the expenditure side, measures include extension of Act 66, which freezes much government spending, through 2020; reduction of operating costs; decreases in government subsidies; and spending cuts in education. Although IMF policy assumptions are similar to those in the FEGP scenario with full measures, the IMF’s projections of fiscal revenues, expenditures, and balance are different from the FEGPs’. This stems from two main differences in methodologies: first, while IMF projections are on an accrual basis, the FEGPs’ are on a cash basis. Second, the IMF and FEGPs make very different macroeconomic assumptions.
  - Russia: Projections for 2018–21 are the IMF staff’s estimates, based on the authorities’ budget. Projections for 2022–24 are based on the new oil price rule, with adjustments by the IMF staff.
  - Saudi Arabia: The IMF staff baseline projections of total government revenues, except exported oil revenues, are based on IMF staff understanding of government policies as announced in the 2019 Budget and Fiscal Balance Program 2019 Update. Exported oil revenues are based on WEO baseline oil prices and the assumption that Saudi Arabia will continue to meet its commitments under the OPEC+ agreement. Expenditure projections take the 2019 budget and the Fiscal Balance Program 2019 Update as a starting point and reflect IMF staff estimates of the latest changes in policies and economic developments.
  - Singapore: For fiscal year 2019/20, projections are based on budget numbers. For the rest of the projection period, the IMF staff assumes unchanged policies.
  - South Africa: Fiscal assumptions are based on the 2019 Budget Review. Nontax revenue excludes transactions in financial assets and liabilities, as they involve primarily revenues associated with realized exchange rate valuation gains from the holding of foreign currency deposits, sale of assets, and conceptually similar items.
  - Spain: For 2019, projections assume expenditures under the 2018 budget extension scenario and already legislated measures, including pension and public wage increases, and the IMF staff’s projection of revenues. For 2020 and beyond, fiscal projections are IMF staff projections, which assume an unchanged structural primary balance.
  - Sweden: Fiscal projections take into account the authorities’ projections based on the 2018 December Budget. The impact of cyclical developments on the fiscal accounts is calculated using the 2014 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s elasticity (Price, Dang and Guillemette (2014)) to take into account output and employment gaps.
  - Switzerland: The projections assume that fiscal policy is adjusted as necessary to keep fiscal balances in line with the requirements of Switzerland’s fiscal rules.
  - Turkey: The fiscal projections assume a more negative primary and overall balance than envisaged in the authorities’ New Economic Program 2019–21, based partly on the IMF staff’s lower growth forecast and partly on definitional differences: the basis for the projections in the WEO and Fiscal Monitor is the IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some revenue and expenditure items that are included in the authorities’ headline balance.
  - United Kingdom: Fiscal projections are based on the country’s Spring 2019 Budget, with expenditure projections based on the budgeted nominal values and with revenue projections adjusted for differences between the IMF staff’s forecasts of macroeconomic variables (such as GDP growth and inflation) and the forecasts of these variables assumed in the authorities’ fiscal projections. The IMF staff’s data exclude public sector banks and the effect of transferring assets from the Royal Mail Pension Plan to the public sector in April 2012. Real government consumption and investment are part of the real GDP path, which, according to the IMF staff, may or may not be the same as projected by the UK Office for Budget Responsibility.
  - United States: Fiscal projections are based on the January 2019 Congressional Budget Office baseline, adjusted for the IMF staff’s policy and macroeconomic assumptions. Projections incorporate the effects of tax reform (the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed into law at the end of 2017) as well as the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018, passed in February 2018. Finally, fiscal projections are adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s forecasts for key macroeconomic and financial variables—and different accounting treatment of financial sector support and defined-benefit pension plans—and are converted to a general government basis. Data are compiled using SNA 2008 and, when translated into government finance statistics, this is in accordance with the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014. Because of data limitations, most series begin in 2001.

### Monetary policy assumptions and selected numerical paths
- Monetary policy assumptions follow established frameworks in each country, typically implying a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle.
- Cross-country short-term rate assumptions explicitly stated:
  - London interbank offered rate on six-month US dollar deposits is assumed to average 3.2 percent in 2019 and 3.8 percent in 2020.
  - The rate on three-month euro deposits is assumed to average –0.3 percent in 2019 and –0.2 percent in 2020.
  - The interest rate on six-month Japanese yen deposits is assumed to average 0.0 percent in 2019 and 2020.
- Selected country-level monetary policy assumptions (preserved verbatim):
  - Argentina: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with the current monetary policy framework, which targets zero base money growth in seasonally adjusted terms.
  - Australia: Monetary policy assumptions are in line with market expectations.
  - Brazil: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with gradual convergence of inflation toward the middle of the target range.
  - Canada: Monetary policy assumptions are in line with market expectations.
  - China: Monetary policy is expected to remain on hold.
  - Denmark: The monetary policy is to maintain the peg to the euro.
  - Euro area: Monetary policy assumptions for euro area member countries are in line with market expectations.
  - Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: The IMF staff assumes that the currency board system will remain intact.
  - India: Monetary policy projections are consistent with achieving the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation target over the medium term.
  - Indonesia: Monetary policy assumptions are in line with the maintenance of inflation within the central bank’s targeted band.
  - Japan: Monetary policy assumptions are in line with market expectations.
  - Korea: Monetary policy assumptions are in line with market expectations.
  - Mexico: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with attaining the inflation target.
  - Russia: Monetary projections assume that the Central Bank of Russia is pausing the transition to a neutral stance.
  - Saudi Arabia: Monetary policy projections are based on the continuation of the exchange rate peg to the US dollar.
  - Singapore: Broad money is projected to grow in line with the projected growth in nominal GDP.
  - South Africa: Monetary policy will remain neutral.
  - Sweden: Monetary projections are in line with Riksbank projections.
  - Switzerland: The projections assume no change in the policy rate in 2018–19.
  - Turkey: The outlook for monetary and financial conditions assumes no changes to the current policy stance.
  - United Kingdom: The short-term interest rate path is based on market interest rate expectations.
  - United States: The IMF staff expects continued gradual normalization of the federal funds target rate, in line with the broader macroeconomic outlook.

### Key projection highlights and numeric assumptions from tables (selected)
- World output (Table A1): World growth projections include 3.6 percent for 2019 and 3.3 percent for 2020 in the main summary lines as presented in the tables.
- Advanced Economies: Real GDP projections include 1.8 percent for 2019 and 1.6 percent for 2020 (Table A2).
- Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP projections include 4.5 percent for 2019 and 4.4 percent for 2020 (Table A4 / Table A15).
- Consumer price assumptions: London interbank six-month USD deposits average assumed at 3.2 percent in 2019 and 3.8 percent in 2020; euro three-month deposits at –0.3 percent in 2019 and –0.2 percent in 2020; six-month JPY deposits at 0.0 percent in 2019 and 2020.
- Fiscal balances and debt (selected major advanced economies, Table A8):
  - United States: Net Debt 47.8 80.9 80.5 80.4 81.7 80.7 80.9 83.4 86.2 94.3 (as reported in sequence in the table); Gross Debt 68.3 104.8 104.4 104.7 106.9 106.2 105.8 106.7 107.5 110.3 (values reported in table rows).
  - Italy: Net Debt 95.7 116.7 118.8 119.5 118.9 119.0 119.0 120.1 121.5 122.5 (as reported); Gross Debt 104.2 129.0 131.8 131.6 131.3 131.3 132.1 133.4 134.1 138.5 (as reported).
  - Japan: Net Debt 99.9 146.4 148.5 147.8 152.6 151.1 153.2 153.6 153.2 154.5; Gross Debt 175.9 232.5 236.1 231.6 236.3 235.0 237.1 237.5 237.0 238.3 (as reported).
- Trade and commodity price signals (Table A9 excerpts):
  - World trade volume annual percent change (goods and services): 3.4 percent (2018) and projections 3.4 percent (2019), 3.9 percent (2020) in table summaries.
  - Average oil price (percent change of average of UK Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate): reported in the table A9 narrative and shown as numeric series including 23.3 29.4 –13.4 –0.2 in the sequence for certain years (preserved as presented in the source).
- Current account and external positions (Table A10 / A11 / A12):
  - Advanced Economies aggregated Net Lending/Borrowing and Current Account patterns are detailed in the tables (for example, Advanced Economies current account in percent of GDP around 0.5 percent in some years as shown).
  - Country-level balances (selected): United States current account levels in Table A10 series include –445.7 –426.8 –348.8 –365.2 –407.8 –432.9 –449.1 –468.8 –513.4 –583.3 –548.8 (billions of US dollars, as reported for the sequence).
- Financial account flows and reserves (Table A13): large gross flows and change in reserves series are reported by region and country in the tables (see the detailed table rows for numeric series).

*Source: Annex I and Box A1, Statistical Appendix (selected tables) — WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GROWTH SLOWDOWN, PRECARIOUS RECOVERY, International Monetary Fund | April 2019.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2019/april/english/statapp.pdf_