## statapp ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [statapp](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2020/october/english/statapp.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2020/october/english/statapp.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2020/october/english/statapp.pdf.json) --- ### Key exchange rate and commodity price assumptions - US dollar–euro conversion rates: 1.391 and 1.430. - US dollar–euro conversion rates (alternate): 1.143 and 1.230. - Yen–US dollar conversion rates: 107.2 and 105.9. - It is assumed that the price of oil will average $41.69 a barrel in 2020 and $46.70 a barrel in 2021. ### Interest rate assumptions - LIBOR on six-month US dollar deposits: 0.7 percent in 2020 and 0.4 percent in 2021. - LIBOR on three-month euro deposits: –0.4 percent in 2020 and –0.5 percent in 2021. - LIBOR on six-month yen deposits: 0.0 percent in 2020 and 2021. ### Euro introduction and irrevocably fixed conversion rates (effective January 1, 1999) - 1 euro = 13.7603 Austrian schillings - 1 euro = 40.3399 Belgian francs - 1 euro = 0.585274 Cyprus pound - 1 euro = 1.95583 Deutsche marks - 1 euro = 15.6466 Estonian krooni - 1 euro = 5.94573 Finnish markkaa - 1 euro = 6.55957 French francs - 1 euro = 340.750 Greek drachmas - 1 euro = 0.787564 Irish pound - 1 euro = 1,936.27 Italian lire - 1 euro = 0.702804 Latvian lat - 1 euro = 3.45280 Lithuanian litas - 1 euro = 40.3399 Luxembourg francs - 1 euro = 0.42930 Maltese lira - 1 euro = 2.20371 Netherlands guilders - 1 euro = 200.482 Portuguese escudos - 1 euro = 30.1260 Slovak koruna - 1 euro = 239.640 Slovenian tolars - 1 euro = 166.386 Spanish pesetas - Notes on establishment dates for some conversion rates: - 1: Established on January 1, 2008. - 2: Established on January 1, 2011. - 3: Established on January 1, 2001. - 4: Established on January 1, 2014. - 5: Established on January 1, 2015. - 6: Established on January 1, 2009. - 7: Established on January 1, 2007. ### Data and conventions for the WEO database - Data and projections cover 195 economies. - Most countries’ macroeconomic data as presented in the WEO conform broadly to the 2008 version of the System of National Accounts (SNA 2008). - IMF sector statistical standards aligned with SNA 2008 include: - BPM6 (sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual) - Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide (MFSMCG) - Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014) - Fiscal gross and net debt data are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates; attempts are made to align with GFSM definitions, but deviations can occur due to data limitations or country circumstances. - Composite data construction: - Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to US dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP. - Composites for other domestic economy data are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total world or group GDP. - Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data for the emerging market and developing economies group—except inflation and money growth, for which geometric averages are used. - Multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change unless noted otherwise. - Annual inflation rates are simple percentage changes from the previous years, except for emerging market and developing economies (rates based on logarithmic differences). - Composites for real GDP per capita in purchasing power parity terms are sums of individual country data after conversion to the international dollar. - Group composites are computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group weights is represented. - Data refer to calendar years except for a few countries using fiscal years; multiyear averages and aggregation conventions follow the stated rules. ### Data updates and coverage notes - Following release of the 2017 ICP survey, WEO estimates of purchasing-power-parity weights and GDP at purchasing power parity have been updated (see Box 1.1 of the October 2020 WEO). - Starting with the October 2020 WEO, data and forecasts for Bangladesh and Tonga are presented on a fiscal year basis. - Data for West Bank and Gaza are now included in the WEO and are added to the Middle East and Central Asia regional group. ### Country-specific notes and exceptions (selected) - Albania: projections prepared prior to the first Post-Program Monitoring mission that ended on September 28 and do not reflect updates made during the mission. - Argentina: fiscal and inflation variables are excluded from publication for 2021–25 and 2020–25, respectively, due to pending program negotiations; official national CPI starts in December 2016, with earlier CPI series composed of different regional measures. - Australia: projections do not reflect the October 6 Commonwealth budget (released after the cutoff date September 28 for the October 2020 WEO). - Belarus: projections prepared before the presidential elections of August 9, 2020. - Dominican Republic: fiscal series coverage detailed for consolidated public sector vs. central government. - Ecuador: fiscal data reflect net lending/borrowing for the nonfinancial public sector; revisions for 2012–17 underway. - India: real GDP growth rates calculated according to national accounts with base year 2004/05 for 1998–2011 and base year 2011/12 thereafter. - Lebanon: projections for 2021–25 omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty. - Libya: reliability of data is low given the civil war and weak capacity. - Syria: data excluded from 2011 onward because of the uncertain political situation. - Ukraine: revised national accounts data available beginning in 2000 and exclude Crimea and Sevastopol from 2010. - Uruguay: starting from October 2018, public pension system transfers recorded as revenues; data and projections for 2018–21 are affected by these transfers. ### Short-term Fiscal Projections (sample figures) - Fiscal series: 1.3 percent of GDP in 2018 and 1.2 percent of GDP in 2019. - Projected fiscal series: 0.8 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2021, and zero percent thereafter. ### Venezuela and Zimbabwe reporting caveats - Venezuela: - Fiscal accounts include: budgetary central government; social security; FOGADE (insurance deposit institution); and a sample of public enterprises, including Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA). - Data for 2018–19 are IMF staff estimates. - Nominal GDP is estimated assuming the GDP deflator rises in line with the IMF staff’s projection of average inflation. - Public external debt in relation to GDP is projected using the IMF staff’s estimate of the average exchange rate for the year. - Venezuela’s consumer prices are excluded from all WEO group composites. - Wide uncertainty surrounds these projections. - Zimbabwe: - In 2019 authorities introduced the Real Time Gross Settlement dollar, later renamed the Zimbabwe dollar. - Authorities are in the process of redenominating their national accounts statistics. - Current data are subject to revision. - The Zimbabwe dollar previously ceased circulating in 2009; between 2009 and 2019 Zimbabwe operated under a multi-currency regime with the US dollar as the unit of account. ### Country classification in the WEO and group aggregates - WEO divides the world into two major groups: advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies. - Advanced Economies: Number of economies 39. Subgroup of major advanced economies comprises the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada. - Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Number of economies 156. - Regional breakdowns for emerging market and developing economies: emerging and developing Asia; emerging and developing Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; Middle East and Central Asia; sub-Saharan Africa. - Analytical classifications: - By Source of Export Earnings: fuel (SITC 3) vs nonfuel, focusing on nonfuel primary products (SITCs 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68). Economies categorized if main source exceeded 50 percent of total exports on average between 2015 and 2019. - Financial criteria: net creditor economies, net debtor economies, heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), low-income developing countries (LIDCs). - LIDCs threshold: per capita income below $2,700 in 2016 (World Bank Atlas method). - Selected aggregate shares and counts (percent of world unless noted): - Advanced Economies shares: - GDP: 43.1 - Exports of Goods and Services: 63.0 - Population: 14.1 - Emerging Market and Developing Economies shares: - GDP: 56.9 - Exports of Goods and Services: 37.0 - Population: 85.9 - Examples of country-level shares: - United States GDP: 37.0 (Advanced Economies subgroup) - Euro Area GDP: 29.0 - China GDP (Emerging and Developing Asia): 30.5 - India GDP (Emerging and Developing Asia): 12.5 ### Exceptional reporting periods, documentation, and conventions - Table F lists economies with exceptional reporting periods for National Accounts and Government Finance (examples include The Bahamas Jul/Jun; Bangladesh Jul/Jun; India Apr/Mar; Pakistan Jul/Jun). - Table G provides Key Data Documentation covering: - Currency; National Accounts historical data source and latest actual annual data; System of National Accounts in use; Base year; Use of chain-weighted methodology; CPI historical data source and latest actual annual data. - Government Finance historical data source and subsector coverage; Balance of Payments historical data source and latest actual annual data. - Notes and conventions: - The output gap is actual minus potential output, as a percentage of potential output. - Structural balance: actual net lending/borrowing minus effects of cyclical output and corrected for one-time and other factors. - Net debt = gross debt minus financial assets corresponding to debt instruments. - Several footnotes clarify omissions (e.g., Syria, South Sudan) and data source abbreviations (CB, MoF, NSO, MEP, etc.). ### Fiscal and monetary policy assumptions (Box A1 – selected) - Short-term fiscal policy assumptions normally based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions. - If no official budget, projections incorporate policy measures judged likely to be implemented. - When insufficient information on authorities’ intentions, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed unless indicated otherwise. - Country-specific illustrative notes (selection): - Argentina: based on budget outturn and budget plans for federal and provincial governments and IMF staff macroeconomic projections. - China: large fiscal expansion estimated for 2020 based on budgeted and announced tax and expenditure measures; for 2021 a mild expansion projected. - India: historical data based on budgetary execution data; subnational data incorporated with a lag of up to one year. - Russia: fiscal policy countercyclical in 2020, degree of consolidation in 2021, return to fiscal rule in 2022. - Singapore: IMF staff assumes 2020 support packages are only for one year; projections assume unchanged policies thereafter. - Monetary policy assumptions based on established frameworks; generally a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle. - London interbank offered rate on six-month US dollar deposits assumed to average 0.7 percent in 2020 and 0.4 percent in 2021. - Rate on three-month euro deposits assumed to average –0.4 percent in 2020 and –0.5 percent in 2021. - Interest rate on six-month Japanese yen deposits assumed to average 0.0 percent in 2020 and in 2021. - Country-specific monetary assumptions (selection): - China: monetary policy accommodative in 2020 and supportive in 2021 (but to a lower degree). - Denmark and Saudi Arabia: maintain exchange rate peg to the euro and US dollar, respectively. - South Africa: consistent with maintaining inflation within the 3–6 percent target band. - Switzerland: assume no change in the policy rate in 2020–21. - United States: IMF staff expects the FOMC to continue to adjust the federal funds target rate in line with the broader macroeconomic outlook. *Source: Statistical Appendix, World Economic Outlook: A Long and Difficult Ascent (October 2020), International Monetary Fund.* ### 1.391 and 1.430, US dollar–euro conversion rates of ### statapp - 1.391 and 1.430, US dollar–euro conversion rates of ### Key exchange rate and commodity price assumptions - US dollar–euro conversion rates: 1.391 and 1.430. - US dollar–euro conversion rates (alternate): 1.143 and 1.230. - Yen–US dollar conversion rates: 107.2 and 105.9. - It is assumed that the price of oil will average $41.69 a barrel in 2020 and $46.70 a barrel in 2021. ### Interest rate assumptions - LIBOR on six-month US dollar deposits: 0.7 percent in 2020 and 0.4 percent in 2021. - LIBOR on three-month euro deposits: –0.4 percent in 2020 and –0.5 percent in 2021. - LIBOR on six-month yen deposits: 0.0 percent in 2020 and 2021. ### Euro introduction and irrevocably fixed conversion rates (effective January 1, 1999) - 1 euro = 13.7603 Austrian schillings - 1 euro = 40.3399 Belgian francs - 1 euro = 0.585274 Cyprus pound - 1 euro = 1.95583 Deutsche marks - 1 euro = 15.6466 Estonian krooni - 1 euro = 5.94573 Finnish markkaa - 1 euro = 6.55957 French francs - 1 euro = 340.750 Greek drachmas - 1 euro = 0.787564 Irish pound - 1 euro = 1,936.27 Italian lire - 1 euro = 0.702804 Latvian lat - 1 euro = 3.45280 Lithuanian litas - 1 euro = 40.3399 Luxembourg francs - 1 euro = 0.42930 Maltese lira - 1 euro = 2.20371 Netherlands guilders - 1 euro = 200.482 Portuguese escudos - 1 euro = 30.1260 Slovak koruna - 1 euro = 239.640 Slovenian tolars - 1 euro = 166.386 Spanish pesetas - Notes on establishment dates for some conversion rates: - 1: Established on January 1, 2008. - 2: Established on January 1, 2011. - 3: Established on January 1, 2001. - 4: Established on January 1, 2014. - 5: Established on January 1, 2015. - 6: Established on January 1, 2009. - 7: Established on January 1, 2007. ### Data and conventions for the WEO database - Data and projections cover 195 economies. - Most countries’ macroeconomic data as presented in the WEO conform broadly to the 2008 version of the System of National Accounts (SNA 2008). - IMF sector statistical standards aligned with SNA 2008 include: - BPM6 (sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual) - Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide (MFSMCG) - Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014) - Fiscal gross and net debt data are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates; attempts are made to align with GFSM definitions, but deviations can occur due to data limitations or country circumstances. - Composite data construction: - Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to US dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP. - Composites for other domestic economy data are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total world or group GDP. - Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data for the emerging market and developing economies group—except inflation and money growth, for which geometric averages are used. - Multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change unless noted otherwise. - Annual inflation rates are simple percentage changes from the previous years, except for emerging market and developing economies (rates based on logarithmic differences). - Composites for real GDP per capita in purchasing power parity terms are sums of individual country data after conversion to the international dollar. - Group composites are computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group weights is represented. - Data refer to calendar years except for a few countries using fiscal years; multiyear averages and aggregation conventions follow the stated rules. ### Data updates and coverage notes - Following release of the 2017 ICP survey, WEO estimates of purchasing-power-parity weights and GDP at purchasing power parity have been updated (see Box 1.1 of the October 2020 WEO). - Starting with the October 2020 WEO, data and forecasts for Bangladesh and Tonga are presented on a fiscal year basis. - Data for West Bank and Gaza are now included in the WEO and are added to the Middle East and Central Asia regional group. ### Country-specific notes and exceptions (selected) - Albania: projections prepared prior to the first Post-Program Monitoring mission that ended on September 28 and do not reflect updates made during the mission. - Argentina: fiscal and inflation variables are excluded from publication for 2021–25 and 2020–25, respectively, due to pending program negotiations; official national CPI starts in December 2016, with earlier CPI series composed of different regional measures. - Australia: projections do not reflect the October 6 Commonwealth budget (released after the cutoff date September 28 for the October 2020 WEO). - Belarus: projections prepared before the presidential elections of August 9, 2020. - Dominican Republic: fiscal series coverage detailed for consolidated public sector vs. central government. - Ecuador: fiscal data reflect net lending/borrowing for the nonfinancial public sector; revisions for 2012–17 underway. - India: real GDP growth rates calculated according to national accounts with base year 2004/05 for 1998–2011 and base year 2011/12 thereafter. - Lebanon: projections for 2021–25 omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty. - Libya: reliability of data is low given the civil war and weak capacity. - Syria: data excluded from 2011 onward because of the uncertain political situation. - Ukraine: revised national accounts data available beginning in 2000 and exclude Crimea and Sevastopol from 2010. - Uruguay: starting from October 2018, public pension system transfers recorded as revenues; data and projections for 2018–21 are affected by these transfers. *Source: Statistical Appendix, World Economic Outlook: A Long and Difficult Ascent (October 2020), International Monetary Fund.* ### 1.3 percent of GDP in 2018 and 1.2 percent of ### statapp - 1.3 percent of GDP in 2018 and 1.2 percent of ### Short-term Fiscal Projections (sample figures) - Fiscal series: 1.3 percent of GDP in 2018 and 1.2 percent of GDP in 2019. - Projected fiscal series: 0.8 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2021, and zero percent thereafter. ### Uruguay: fiscal coverage and debt reporting - Coverage changed from consolidated public sector to nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 WEO. - Nonfinancial public sector includes: central government, local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado. - Under the narrower fiscal perimeter (which excludes the central bank), assets and liabilities held by the nonfinancial public sector where the counterpart is the central bank are not netted out in debt figures. - Capitalization bonds issued by the government to the central bank are now part of the nonfinancial public sector debt. - Gross and net debt estimates for 2008–11 are preliminary. - Historical data were revised accordingly. ### Venezuela: projection caveats and fiscal coverage - Projecting the economic outlook in Venezuela is complicated by: - lack of discussions with the authorities (the last Article IV consultation took place in 2004), - incomplete understanding of the reported data, - difficulties in interpreting certain reported economic indicators given economic developments. - Fiscal accounts include: budgetary central government; social security; FOGADE (insurance deposit institution); and a sample of public enterprises, including Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA). - Data for 2018–19 are IMF staff estimates. - Nominal GDP is estimated assuming the GDP deflator rises in line with the IMF staff’s projection of average inflation. - Public external debt in relation to GDP is projected using the IMF staff’s estimate of the average exchange rate for the year. - Venezuela’s consumer prices are excluded from all WEO group composites. - Wide uncertainty surrounds these projections. ### Zimbabwe: currency and national accounts redenomination - In 2019 authorities introduced the Real Time Gross Settlement dollar, later renamed the Zimbabwe dollar. - Authorities are in the process of redenominating their national accounts statistics. - Current data are subject to revision. - The Zimbabwe dollar previously ceased circulating in 2009; between 2009 and 2019 Zimbabwe operated under a multi-currency regime with the US dollar as the unit of account. ### Country classification in the WEO - WEO divides the world into two major groups: advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies. - The classification is not based on strict criteria and has evolved over time; objective is to facilitate analysis. - Advanced Economies: Table B lists the 39 advanced economies; subgroup of major advanced economies comprises the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada. - Emerging Market and Developing Economies: 156 economies (those not classified as advanced). - Regional breakdowns for emerging market and developing economies: emerging and developing Asia; emerging and developing Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; Middle East and Central Asia; sub-Saharan Africa. - Analytical classifications: - By Source of Export Earnings: fuel (SITC 3) vs nonfuel, focusing on nonfuel primary products (SITCs 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68). Economies categorized if main source exceeded 50 percent of total exports on average between 2015 and 2019. - Financial criteria: net creditor economies, net debtor economies, heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), low-income developing countries (LIDCs). - LIDCs threshold: per capita income below $2,700 in 2016 (World Bank Atlas method). ### Selected aggregate shares and counts (Table A highlights) - Advanced Economies: Number of economies 39. - Advanced Economies shares (percent of world): - GDP: 43.1 - Exports of Goods and Services: 63.0 - Population: 14.1 - Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Number of economies 156. - Emerging Market and Developing Economies shares (percent of world): - GDP: 56.9 - Exports of Goods and Services: 37.0 - Population: 85.9 - Examples of country-level shares (percent of world or group as shown): - United States GDP: 37.0 (Advanced Economies subgroup) - Euro Area GDP: 29.0 - China GDP (Emerging and Developing Asia): 30.5 - India GDP (Emerging and Developing Asia): 12.5 ### Exceptional reporting periods and documentation - Table F lists economies with exceptional reporting periods for National Accounts and Government Finance (examples include The Bahamas Jul/Jun; Bangladesh Jul/Jun; India Apr/Mar; Pakistan Jul/Jun). - Table G provides Key Data Documentation covering: - Currency; National Accounts historical data source and latest actual annual data; System of National Accounts in use; Base year; Use of chain-weighted methodology; CPI historical data source and latest actual annual data. - Government Finance historical data source and subsector coverage; Balance of Payments historical data source and latest actual annual data. - Notes and conventions: - The output gap is actual minus potential output, as a percentage of potential output. - Structural balance: actual net lending/borrowing minus effects of cyclical output and corrected for one-time and other factors. - Net debt = gross debt minus financial assets corresponding to debt instruments. - Several footnotes clarify omissions (e.g., Syria, South Sudan) and data source abbreviations (CB, MoF, NSO, MEP, etc.). ### Fiscal Policy Assumptions and country-specific notes (Box A1 – selected) - Short-term fiscal policy assumptions normally based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions. - If no official budget, projections incorporate policy measures judged likely to be implemented. - When insufficient information on authorities’ intentions, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed unless indicated otherwise. - Country-specific illustrative notes (selection): - Argentina: based on budget outturn and budget plans for federal and provincial governments and IMF staff macroeconomic projections. - China: large fiscal expansion estimated for 2020 based on budgeted and announced tax and expenditure measures; for 2021 a mild expansion projected. - India: historical data based on budgetary execution data; subnational data incorporated with a lag of up to one year. - Russia: fiscal policy countercyclical in 2020, degree of consolidation in 2021, return to fiscal rule in 2022. - Singapore: IMF staff assumes 2020 support packages are only for one year; projections assume unchanged policies thereafter. ### Monetary Policy Assumptions (Box A1 – selected) - Monetary policy assumptions based on established frameworks; generally a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle. - London interbank offered rate on six-month US dollar deposits assumed to average 0.7 percent in 2020 and 0.4 percent in 2021. - Rate on three-month euro deposits assumed to average –0.4 percent in 2020 and –0.5 percent in 2021. - Interest rate on six-month Japanese yen deposits assumed to average 0.0 percent in 2020 and in 2021. - Country-specific assumptions (selection): - China: monetary policy accommodative in 2020 and supportive in 2021 (but to a lower degree). - Denmark and Saudi Arabia: maintain exchange rate peg to the euro and US dollar, respectively. - South Africa: consistent with maintaining inflation within the 3–6 percent target band. - Switzerland: assume no change in the policy rate in 2020–21. - United States: IMF staff expects the FOMC to continue to adjust the federal funds target rate in line with the broader macroeconomic outlook. *International Monetary Fund | October 2020 — Statistical Appendix (selected excerpts)* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2020/october/english/statapp.pdf_