## stasapp - Chapter 1 and Statistical Appendix tables and com-

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### Data and Conventions
- Data and projections for 195 economies form the statistical basis of the WEO database.
- Most countries’ macroeconomic data as presented in the WEO conform broadly to the 2008 version of the System of National Accounts (SNA 2008).
- IMF sector statistical standards referenced: BPM6, the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide, and GFSM 2014.
- WEO estimates are only partly adapted to these manuals; many countries have partly adopted the latest standards and will continue implementation over a number of years.
- Fiscal gross and net debt data reported in the WEO are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates; attempts are made to align with GFSM definitions, but data can sometimes deviate from the formal definitions because of data limitations or specific country circumstances.
- As more information becomes available, changes in data sources or instrument coverage can give rise to data revisions that can sometimes be substantial.
- Unless noted otherwise, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change.

### Composite, Weighting, and Calculation Conventions
- Country-group composites are either sums or weighted averages of individual-country data.
- Arithmetically weighted averages used for all data for the emerging market and developing economies group—except inflation and money growth, for which geometric averages are used.
- Exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to US dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.
- Other domestic-economy composites (growth rates or ratios) are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total world or group GDP.
- Annual inflation rates are simple percentage changes from the previous years, except for emerging market and developing economies, for which rates are based on logarithmic differences.
- Composites for real GDP per capita in PPP terms are sums of individual country data after conversion to the international dollar in the years indicated.
- Euro area composites corrected for reporting discrepancies in intra-area transactions unless noted otherwise.
- Unadjusted annual GDP data used for the euro area and most individual countries, except Cyprus, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain, which report calendar-adjusted data.
- For data prior to 1999, aggregations apply 1995 European currency unit exchange rates.
- Fiscal data composites are sums of individual country data after conversion to US dollars at average market exchange rates in the years indicated.
- Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.
- External sector composites are sums after conversion to US dollars at average market exchange rates for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than US dollars.
- Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices are arithmetic averages of percent changes weighted by the US dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).
- Group composites are computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group weights is represented.
- Data refer to calendar years except for a few countries that use fiscal years; Table F lists economies with exceptional reporting periods.
- For some countries, figures for 2020 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns; Table G lists latest actual outturns for indicators.

### Statistical Standards, Metadata, and Reporting Practices
- National statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions; international organizations harmonize methodologies.
- WEO database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations.
- For clarification on deviations in sectoral or instrument coverage, users should refer to metadata for the online WEO database.
- Adapting country data to new manuals begins when manuals are released; full concordance depends on provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data.

### Country Notes and Exceptions (selected)
- New Zealand: Starting with the April 2021 WEO, real GDP data and forecasts reported on a production basis rather than an expenditure basis.
- Argentina:
  - Fiscal and inflation variables excluded from publication for 2021–26 as these are to a large extent linked to still-pending program negotiations.
  - Official national CPI for Argentina starts in December 2016. Earlier periods: Greater Buenos Aires Area CPI (prior to December 2013), national CPI (IPCNu, December 2013 to October 2015), City of Buenos Aires CPI (November 2015 to April 2016), Greater Buenos Aires Area CPI (May 2016 to December 2016).
  - Average CPI inflation for 2014–16 and end-of-period inflation for 2015–16 are not reported in the April 2021 WEO.
  - Argentina discontinued publication of labor market data in December 2015; new series available starting in the second quarter of 2016.
- Bangladesh: Data and forecasts presented on a fiscal year basis starting with the October 2020 WEO; real GDP and PPP GDP aggregates including Bangladesh are based on calendar year estimates.
- Dominican Republic: Fiscal series coverage—public debt, debt service, and cyclically adjusted/structural balances—are for the consolidated public sector; remaining fiscal series are for the central government.
- Ecuador: Fiscal data reflect net lending/borrowing for the nonfinancial public sector; authorities revising historical fiscal data for 2012–17 to correct identified statistical errors.
- Germany: Projections do not reflect extensions of lockdowns in response to a third wave, the 2021 supplementary budget, and the draft 2022 federal budget.
- India: Real GDP growth rates calculated as per national accounts—1998 to 2011 with base year 2004/05; thereafter with base year 2011/12.
- Lebanon: Projections for 2021–26 omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty.
- Libya: Reliability of Libya’s data—especially national accounts and medium-term projections—is low due to civil war and weak capacity.
- Syria: Data excluded from 2011 onward because of the uncertain political situation.
- Turkey: Projections finalized in early March 2021.
- Turkmenistan: Fiscal balance estimates and projections exclude receipts from domestic bond issuance, in line with GFSM 2014; authorities’ official estimates include bond issuance as government revenues.
- Ukraine: Revised national accounts available beginning in 2000 and exclude Crimea and Sevastopol from 2010 onward.
- Uruguay:
  - December 2020 authorities began reporting national accounts data according to SNA 2008, base year 2016; new series begin in 2016.
  - Data prior to 2016 reflect IMF staff’s best effort to preserve previously reported data and avoid structural breaks.
  - Starting in October 2018 Uruguay’s public pension system has been receiving transfers recorded as revenues; data and projections for 2018–21 are affected by these transfers.

### Uruguay: fiscal coverage change and debt implications
- Fiscal coverage changed from consolidated public sector to nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 WEO.
- Nonfinancial public sector includes central government, local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado.
- Historical data were revised accordingly.
- Under the narrower fiscal perimeter (excludes the central bank), assets and liabilities held by the nonfinancial public sector where the counterpart is the central bank are not netted out in debt figures.
- Capitalization bonds issued in the past by the government to the central bank are now part of the nonfinancial public sector debt.
- Gross and net debt estimates for 2008–11 are preliminary.
- Footnote: Uruguay: Staff Report for the 2018 Article IV Consultation, Country Report 19/64.

### Venezuela: projection complications and data caveats
- Projection complications arise from lack of discussions with the authorities (last Article IV consultation in 2004), incomplete understanding of reported data, and difficulties interpreting certain indicators.
- Fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government; social security; FOGADE; and a sample of public enterprises, including Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A.
- Data for 2018–19 are IMF staff estimates.
- Hyperinflation and paucity of reported data mean projected macroeconomic indicators need to be interpreted with caution:
  - Nominal GDP is estimated assuming the GDP deflator rises in line with IMF staff’s projection of average inflation.
  - Public external debt in relation to GDP is projected using IMF staff’s estimate of the average exchange rate for the year.
- Wide uncertainty surrounds these projections.
- Venezuela’s consumer prices are excluded from all WEO group composites.

### Zimbabwe: currency and statistical redenomination
- In 2019 authorities introduced the Real Time Gross Settlement dollar, later renamed the Zimbabwe dollar, and are in the process of redenominating national accounts statistics.
- Current data are subject to revision.
- The Zimbabwe dollar previously ceased circulating in 2009; during 2009–19 Zimbabwe operated under a multicurrency regime, with the US dollar as the unit of account.

### Country classification in the WEO
- World divided into two major groups: advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies.
- Classification not based on strict criteria and has evolved; objective to facilitate analysis by organizing data.
- Some countries remain outside the country classification and therefore are not included in the analysis (examples: Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, cited as not IMF members).

### Advanced economies: composition and subgroups
- Table B lists the 39 advanced economies.
- The seven largest by GDP at market exchange rates—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—constitute the Group of Seven.
- Euro area members are distinguished as a subgroup; composite data for the euro area cover current members for all years.

### Emerging market and developing economies: composition and regional breakdowns
- Emerging market and developing economies comprise 156 economies.
- Regional breakdowns: emerging and developing Asia; emerging and developing Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; Middle East and Central Asia; and sub-Saharan Africa.
- Analytical classifications:
  - By source of export earnings: fuel (SITC 3) and nonfuel; focus on nonfuel primary products (SITCs 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68). Economies categorized into a group if their main source of export earnings exceeded 50 percent of total exports on average between 2015 and 2019.
  - By external financing source and income/financial criteria: net creditor and net debtor economies, heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), LIDCs, and EMMIEs.
- Net debtor economies: latest net international investment position, where available, was less than zero or current account balance accumulations from 1972 (or earliest available data) to 2019 were negative.
- During 2015–19, 27 economies incurred external payments arrears or entered into official or commercial bank debt-rescheduling agreements.
- LIDCs defined with per capita income threshold set at $2,700 in 2016 (World Bank Atlas method).

### Selected quantitative group shares and counts (from Table A)
- Advanced Economies: Number of economies 39.
- Advanced Economies share of world GDP: 100.0.
- Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Number of economies 156.
- Emerging Market and Developing Economies share of world GDP: 100.0.
- Examples of subgroup shares and country entries as presented:
  - United States: 37.4 (GDP share as listed in table).
  - China: 31.9 (Emerging and Developing Asia GDP share as listed).
  - India: 11.8 (Emerging and Developing Asia GDP share as listed).
- Note: Table A presents many more numeric shares for GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population by group and subgroup.

### Exceptional reporting periods and data documentation
- Table F lists economies with exceptional reporting periods for National Accounts or Government Finance (examples: The Bahamas Jul/Jun; Bangladesh Jul/Jun for both National Accounts and Government Finance; India Apr/Mar for National Accounts and Government Finance).
- Table G provides key data documentation by country covering: currency; national accounts (historical data source, latest actual annual data, base year, SNA/ESA); prices (CPI) historical data source and latest actual annual data; government finance historical data source, latest actual annual data, statistics manual in use, subsectors coverage, accounting practice; balance of payments historical data source and latest actual annual data.
- Notes clarify abbreviations and methodological points (e.g., BPM = Balance of Payments Manual; CPI = consumer price index; ESA = European System of National Accounts; SNA = System of National Accounts).

### Fiscal policy assumptions in the WEO projections
- Short-term fiscal policy assumptions normally based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between national authorities and IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns.
- When no official budget announced, projections incorporate policy measures judged likely to be implemented.
- Medium-term fiscal projections based on judgement about policies’ most likely path.
- If IMF staff has insufficient information to assess authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed unless indicated otherwise.
- Country-specific examples:
  - Argentina: Projections based on available information regarding budget outturn and budget plans for federal and provincial governments, fiscal measures announced by authorities, and IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections.
  - Australia: Projections based on Australian Bureau of Statistics, FY2020/21 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook of the Commonwealth government, FY2020/21 budgets of each state/territory government, and IMF staff estimates and projections.
  - Austria: Projections based on the 2021 budget with consideration of available data.

### Fiscal projection methodology and key caveats
- Net debt calculated as gross debt minus financial assets corresponding to debt instruments.
- Estimates of the output gap and of the structural balance are subject to significant margins of uncertainty.
- Projections for 2020 and projection years include the new EU recovery funds (not included in the budget) where specified.
- Data compilation follows SNA 2008 and GFSM 2014 when translating into government finance statistics.
- Most series begin in 2001 because of data limitations.

### Country-specific fiscal assumptions and projection bases (selected highlights)
- Belgium: Projections based on the 2020–21 Stability Program, the Draft Budgetary Plan for 2020, the 2021 budget, and other information with IMF staff adjustments.
- Brazil: Fiscal projections for 2021 reflect policy announcements as of March 12, 2021; medium-term projections reflect full compliance with Brazil’s constitutional expenditure ceiling.
- Canada: Projections use baseline forecasts from the Fall Economic Statement 2020 and latest provincial budgets, adjusted by IMF staff; incorporate budgetary outturns through the third quarter of 2020.
- China: After a large fiscal expansion estimated for 2020, a mild tightening projected for 2021 based on government policy announcements.
- France: Estimates for 2020 and projections for 2021 onward based on 2018–20 budget laws, four amending budget laws enacted in 2020, and the 2021 budget law, adjusted for macroeconomic and revenue assumptions.
- Germany: Projections for 2021 and beyond based on 2021 budgets and agency data, adjusted for IMF macro differences; projections do not reflect the 2021 supplementary budget or draft 2022 federal budget. Gross debt estimate includes portfolios of impaired assets and noncore business transferred to winding-up institutions and other financial sector and EU support operations.
- India: Historical data based on budgetary execution; projections based on available information with IMF staff adjustments. Starting in FY2020/21 expenditure includes the off-budget component of food subsidies consistent with revised budget treatment; IMF staff adjust to remove payments for previous years’ food subsidies included in FY2020/21 and FY2021/22 budget estimates.
- Japan: Projections reflect fiscal measures announced by government as of March 9, with IMF staff adjustments.
- Russia: Fiscal policy countercyclical in 2020; some consolidation in 2021 with deficit likely to return to the fiscal rule’s limit in 2022.
- Saudi Arabia: Baseline fiscal projections based on IMF staff understanding of government policies in the 2021 budget; exported oil revenues based on WEO baseline oil price assumptions and staff’s understanding of OPEC+ policy.
- Spain: 2020 projections include COVID-19 discretionary measures, legislated pension and public wage increases, minimum vital income; 2021 includes COVID-19 support and legislated measures; 2022 onward assume no policy changes. Disbursements under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility reflected for 2021–24.
- United Kingdom: Projections based on ONS GDP data of February 12, 2021 and OBR forecasts of November 23, 2020; revenue projections adjusted for IMF macro forecasts; assume expiration of coronavirus measures as announced and some additional consolidation starting in FY2023/24 to stabilize public debt within five years. Data presented on a calendar year basis.
- United States: Projections based on the September 2020 Congressional Budget Office baseline adjusted for IMF staff policy and macro assumptions; incorporate effects of the American Rescue Plan; the Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act; the Families First Coronavirus Response Act; the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act.

### Monetary policy assumptions and specific rate projections
- Monetary policy assumptions based on established policy frameworks in each country; typically imply a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle.
- Short-term interest rate assumptions (exact values):
  - LIBOR on six-month US dollar deposits is assumed to average 0.3 percent in 2021 and 0.4 percent in 2022.
  - Rate on three-month euro deposits is assumed to average –0.5 percent in 2021 and 2022.
  - Rate on six-month Japanese yen deposits is assumed to average –0.1 percent in 2021 and 0.0 percent in 2022.
- Country-specific monetary assumptions (selected highlights):
  - Argentina: Consistent with current framework targeting zero-based money growth in seasonally adjusted terms.
  - China: Monetary policy expected to remain supportive in 2021 and gradually tighten to be around neutral in 2022.
  - Denmark: Maintain peg to the euro.
  - Hong Kong SAR: Assumes currency board system remains intact.
  - New Zealand: Projections based on nominal GDP growth estimates and Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Large Assets Purchase Program.
  - Russia: Assumes the Central Bank of the Russian Federation adopts a moderately accommodative monetary policy stance.
  - Saudi Arabia: Projections based on continuation of exchange rate peg to the US dollar.
  - South Africa: Assumptions consistent with maintaining inflation within the 3 percent to 6 percent target band.
  - Switzerland: Projections assume no change in the policy rate in 2021–22.
  - Turkey: Baseline assumes authorities remain committed to a firm monetary policy stance, with no easing in 2021; further measured tightening likely if inflation expectations fail to stabilize.
  - United Kingdom: Short-term interest rate path based on market interest rate expectations.
  - United States: IMF staff expects the Federal Open Market Committee to continue to adjust the federal funds target rate in line with the broader macroeconomic outlook.

### Data treatment, accounting and notable methodological points
- IMF and some national presentations differ in recording of certain items (examples: India differs on disinvestment and license-auction proceeds, net versus gross recording of revenues in minor categories, and some public sector lending).
- IMF projections sometimes adjust authorities’ budget figures to reflect IMF macroeconomic assumptions and different accounting treatments (examples: Canada, France, Germany, Mexico, United States).
- Puerto Rico projections: Based on Puerto Rico Fiscal and Economic Growth Plans (FEGPs) certified in October 2018; IMF projections assume federal aid for rebuilding after Hurricane Maria and other specified fiscal changes; IMF projections differ from FEGPs mainly because IMF uses accrual basis while FEGPs use cash basis and because of different macroeconomic assumptions.
- Netherlands: Historical data revised following June 2014 release due to adoption of ESA and data source revisions.
- Spain: Disbursements under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility are reflected in projections for 2021–24.
- Sweden: Impact of cyclical developments on fiscal accounts calculated using the 2014 OECD elasticity to account for output and employment gaps.
- Turkey: WEO and Fiscal Monitor use an IMF-defined fiscal balance that excludes some revenue and expenditure items included in authorities’ headline balance.

*Source: Chapter 1 and Statistical Appendix tables and com- (stasapp), April 2021 WEO PDF.*

### Chapter 1 and Statistical Appendix tables and com-

### stasapp - Chapter 1 and Statistical Appendix tables and com-

### Data and Conventions
- Data and projections for 195 economies form the statistical basis of the WEO database.
- Most countries’ macroeconomic data as presented in the WEO conform broadly to the 2008 version of the System of National Accounts (SNA 2008).
- The IMF’s sector statistical standards referenced: the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6), the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide, and the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014).
- The WEO estimates are only partly adapted to these manuals; many countries have partly adopted the latest standards and will continue implementation over a number of years.
- The fiscal gross and net debt data reported in the WEO are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates; attempts are made to align with GFSM definitions, but data can sometimes deviate from the formal definitions because of data limitations or specific country circumstances.
- As more information becomes available, changes in data sources or instrument coverage can give rise to data revisions that can sometimes be substantial.
- Unless noted otherwise, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change.

### Composite, Weighting, and Calculation Conventions
- Composite data for country groups in the WEO are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries.
- Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data for the emerging market and developing economies group—except data on inflation and money growth, for which geometric averages are used.
- Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to US dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.
- Composites for other domestic-economy data, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total world or group GDP.
- Annual inflation rates are simple percentage changes from the previous years, except in the case of emerging market and developing economies, for which the rates are based on logarithmic differences.
- Composites for real GDP per capita in purchasing-power-parity terms are sums of individual country data after conversion to the international dollar in the years indicated.
- Unless noted otherwise, composites for all sectors for the euro area are corrected for reporting discrepancies in intra-area transactions.
- Unadjusted annual GDP data are used for the euro area and for the majority of individual countries, except for Cyprus, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain, which report calendar-adjusted data.
- For data prior to 1999, data aggregations apply 1995 European currency unit exchange rates.
- Composites for fiscal data are sums of individual country data after conversion to US dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated.
- Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.
- Composites relating to external sector statistics are sums of individual country data after conversion to US dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than US dollars.
- Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices are arithmetic averages of percent changes for individual countries weighted by the US dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).
- Unless noted otherwise, group composites are computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group weights is represented.
- Data refer to calendar years, except in the case of a few countries that use fiscal years; Table F lists the economies with exceptional reporting periods for national accounts and government finance data for each country.
- For some countries, the figures for 2020 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns; Table G lists the latest actual outturns for the indicators in the national accounts, prices, government finance, and balance of payments indicators for each country.

### Statistical Standards, Metadata, and Reporting Practices
- Although national statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions, international organizations are involved in statistical issues to harmonize methodologies for national statistics (frameworks, concepts, definitions, classifications, valuation procedures).
- The WEO database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations.
- For clarification on deviations in sectoral or instrument coverage, users should refer to the metadata for the online WEO database.
- The process of adapting country data to new manuals begins in earnest when the manuals are released; full concordance depends on provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data.

### Country Notes and Exceptions (selected)
- New Zealand: Starting with the April 2021 WEO, real GDP data and forecasts for New Zealand are reported on a production basis rather than an expenditure basis.
- Argentina:
  - Fiscal and inflation variables are excluded from publication for 2021–26 as these are to a large extent linked to still-pending program negotiations.
  - The official national consumer price index (CPI) for Argentina starts in December 2016.
  - For earlier periods, CPI data reflect the Greater Buenos Aires Area CPI (prior to December 2013), the national CPI (IPCNu, December 2013 to October 2015), the City of Buenos Aires CPI (November 2015 to April 2016), and the Greater Buenos Aires Area CPI (May 2016 to December 2016).
  - Given limited comparability of these series, the average CPI inflation for 2014–16 and end-of-period inflation for 2015–16 are not reported in the April 2021 WEO.
  - Argentina discontinued publication of labor market data in December 2015; new series became available starting in the second quarter of 2016.
- Bangladesh: Data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis starting with the October 2020 WEO. However, the real GDP and purchasing-power-parity GDP aggregates that include Bangladesh are based on calendar year estimates.
- Dominican Republic: The fiscal series coverage—public debt, debt service, and cyclically adjusted/structural balances—are for the consolidated public sector (central government, the rest of the nonfinancial public sector, and the central bank); remaining fiscal series are for the central government.
- Ecuador: Fiscal data reflect net lending/borrowing for the nonfinancial public sector. Authorities, with IMF technical support, are revising historical fiscal data for net lending/borrowing of the nonfinancial public sector over 2012–17 to correct identified statistical errors at the subnational level and consistency between above-the-line and financing data by subsectors.
- Germany: Projections do not reflect the extensions of lockdowns in response to a third wave of infections, the 2021 supplementary budget, and the draft 2022 federal budget.
- India: Real GDP growth rates are calculated as per national accounts—1998 to 2011 with base year 2004/05; thereafter with base year 2011/12.
- Lebanon: Projections for 2021–26 are omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty.
- Libya: Against the backdrop of a civil war and weak capacity, the reliability of Libya’s data—especially regarding national accounts and medium-term projections—is low.
- Syria: Data are excluded from 2011 onward because of the uncertain political situation.
- Turkey: Projections were finalized in early March 2021.
- Turkmenistan: Estimates and projections of the fiscal balance exclude receipts from domestic bond issuance, in line with GFSM 2014; authorities’ official estimates compiled using domestic methodologies include bond issuance as government revenues.
- Ukraine: Revised national accounts data are available beginning in 2000 and exclude Crimea and Sevastopol from 2010 onward.
- Uruguay:
  - In December 2020 authorities began reporting national accounts data according to SNA 2008, with base year 2016. The new series began in 2016.
  - Data prior to 2016 reflect IMF staff’s best effort to preserve previously reported data and avoid structural breaks.
  - Starting in October 2018 Uruguay’s public pension system has been receiving transfers in the context of a new law that compensates persons affected by the creation of the mixed pension system. These funds are recorded as revenues, consistent with the IMF’s methodology. Therefore, data and projections for 2018–21 are affected by these transfers.

*Source: Chapter 1 and Statistical Appendix tables and com- (stasapp), April 2021 WEO PDF.*

### 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018 and 1.1 percent of

### stasapp - 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018 and 1.1 percent of

### Uruguay: fiscal coverage change and debt implications
- Coverage of fiscal data for Uruguay changed from consolidated public sector to nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 WEO.
- Nonfinancial public sector coverage includes central government, local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado.
- Historical data were revised accordingly.
- Under the narrower fiscal perimeter—which excludes the central bank—assets and liabilities held by the nonfinancial public sector where the counterpart is the central bank are not netted out in debt figures.
- Capitalization bonds issued in the past by the government to the central bank are now part of the nonfinancial public sector debt.
- Gross and net debt estimates for 2008–11 are preliminary.
- Footnote: Uruguay: Staff Report for the 2018 Article IV Consultation, Country Report 19/64.

### Venezuela: projection complications and data caveats
- Projecting the economic outlook in Venezuela is complicated by:
  - lack of discussions with the authorities (the last Article IV consultation took place in 2004),
  - incomplete understanding of the reported data,
  - difficulties in interpreting certain reported economic indicators given economic developments.
- Fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government; social security; FOGADE (insurance deposit institution); and a sample of public enterprises, including Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A.
- Data for 2018–19 are IMF staff estimates.
- The effects of hyperinflation and the paucity of reported data mean the IMF staff’s projected macroeconomic indicators need to be interpreted with caution.
  - Example: nominal GDP is estimated assuming the GDP deflator rises in line with the IMF staff’s projection of average inflation.
  - Public external debt in relation to GDP is projected using the IMF staff’s estimate of the average exchange rate for the year.
- Wide uncertainty surrounds these projections.
- Venezuela’s consumer prices are excluded from all WEO group composites.

### Zimbabwe: currency and statistical redenomination
- In 2019 Zimbabwe authorities introduced the Real Time Gross Settlement dollar, later renamed the Zimbabwe dollar, and are in the process of redenominating their national accounts statistics.
- Current data are subject to revision.
- The Zimbabwe dollar previously ceased circulating in 2009 and, during 2009–19, Zimbabwe operated under a multicurrency regime, with the US dollar as the unit of account.

### Country classification in the WEO
- The WEO divides the world into two major groups: advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies.
- Classification is not based on strict criteria and has evolved over time; objective is to facilitate analysis by organizing data.
- Some countries remain outside the country classification and therefore are not included in the analysis (examples: Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, cited as not IMF members).

### Advanced economies: composition and subgroups
- Table B lists the 39 advanced economies.
- The seven largest in terms of GDP based on market exchange rates—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies (Group of Seven).
- The euro area members are distinguished as a subgroup; composite data for the euro area cover the current members for all years.

### Emerging market and developing economies: composition and regional breakdowns
- The group of emerging market and developing economies comprises 156 economies (includes all those not classified as advanced economies).
- Regional breakdowns: emerging and developing Asia; emerging and developing Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; Middle East and Central Asia; and sub-Saharan Africa.
- Analytical classifications:
  - By source of export earnings: fuel (SITC 3) and nonfuel; focuses on nonfuel primary products (SITCs 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68). Economies are categorized into a group if their main source of export earnings exceeded 50 percent of total exports on average between 2015 and 2019.
  - By external financing source and income/financial criteria: net creditor and net debtor economies, heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), LIDCs, and EMMIEs.
- Net debtor economies are those whose latest net international investment position, where available, was less than zero or whose current account balance accumulations from 1972 (or earliest available data) to 2019 were negative.
- During 2015–19, 27 economies incurred external payments arrears or entered into official or commercial bank debt-rescheduling agreements (referred to as economies with arrears and/or rescheduling during 2015–19).
- LIDCs defined with per capita income threshold set at $2,700 in 2016 (World Bank Atlas method).

### Selected quantitative group shares and counts (from Table A)
- Advanced Economies: Number of economies 39.
- Advanced Economies share of world GDP: 100.0 (table layout indicates group totals and shares; specific subgroup shares listed in table).
- Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Number of economies 156.
- Emerging Market and Developing Economies share of world GDP: 100.0 (table provides regional and subgroup percentage shares across GDP, exports, and population).
- Examples of subgroup shares and country entries as presented:
  - United States: 37.4 (GDP share as listed in table).
  - China: 31.9 (Emerging and Developing Asia GDP share as listed).
  - India: 11.8 (Emerging and Developing Asia GDP share as listed).
  - Note: Table A presents many more numeric shares for GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population by group and subgroup.

### Exceptional reporting periods and data documentation
- Table F lists economies with exceptional reporting periods for National Accounts or Government Finance (examples: The Bahamas Jul/Jun; Bangladesh Jul/Jun for both National Accounts and Government Finance; India Apr/Mar for National Accounts and Government Finance).
- Table G provides key data documentation by country covering: currency; national accounts (historical data source, latest actual annual data, base year, SNA/ESA); prices (CPI) historical data source and latest actual annual data; government finance historical data source, latest actual annual data, statistics manual in use, subsectors coverage, accounting practice; balance of payments historical data source and latest actual annual data.
- Notes clarify abbreviations and methodological points (e.g., BPM = Balance of Payments Manual; CPI = consumer price index; ESA = European System of National Accounts; SNA = System of National Accounts).

### Fiscal policy assumptions in the WEO projections
- Short-term fiscal policy assumptions are normally based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between national authorities and IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns.
- When no official budget has been announced, projections incorporate policy measures judged likely to be implemented.
- Medium-term fiscal projections are similarly based on a judgment about policies’ most likely path.
- If IMF staff has insufficient information to assess authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed unless indicated otherwise.
- Specific country notes (examples):
  - Argentina: Fiscal projections based on available information regarding budget outturn and budget plans for federal and provincial governments, fiscal measures announced by authorities, and IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections.
  - Australia: Fiscal projections based on Australian Bureau of Statistics, FY2020/21 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook of the Commonwealth government, FY2020/21 budgets published by each state/territory government, and IMF staff estimates and projections.
  - Austria: Fiscal projections based on the 2021 budget but take into consideration available data.

*International Monetary Fund | April 2021 — Statistical Appendix (excerpt).*

### Annex I of the October 1993 WEO.) Net debt is calculated as

### stasapp - Annex I of the October 1993 WEO.) Net debt is calculated as

### Fiscal projection methodology and key caveats
- Net debt is calculated as gross debt minus financial assets corresponding to debt instruments.
- Estimates of the output gap and of the structural balance are subject to significant margins of uncertainty.
- Projections for 2020 and projection years include the new EU recovery funds (not included in the budget) where specified.
- Data compilation follows System of National Accounts 2008 and Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 when translating into government finance statistics.
- Most series begin in 2001 because of data limitations.

### Country-specific fiscal assumptions and projection bases (selected highlights)
- Belgium: Projections based on the 2020–21 Stability Program, the Draft Budgetary Plan for 2020, the 2021 budget, and other available information with IMF staff adjustments.
- Brazil: Fiscal projections for 2021 reflect policy announcements as of March 12, 2021; medium-term projections reflect full compliance with Brazil’s constitutional expenditure ceiling.
- Canada: Projections use baseline forecasts from the Fall Economic Statement 2020 and latest provincial budgets, adjusted by IMF staff; incorporates budgetary outturns through the third quarter of 2020.
- China: After a large fiscal expansion estimated for 2020, a mild tightening is projected for 2021 based on government policy announcements.
- France: Estimates for 2020 and projections for 2021 onward are based on the 2018–20 budget laws, four amending budget laws enacted in 2020, and the 2021 budget law, adjusted for macroeconomic and revenue assumptions.
- Germany: Projections for 2021 and beyond based on 2021 budgets and agency data, adjusted for IMF macroeconomic framework differences; projections do not reflect the 2021 supplementary budget or draft 2022 federal budget. Gross debt estimate includes portfolios of impaired assets and noncore business transferred to winding-up institutions and other financial sector and EU support operations.
- India: Historical data based on budgetary execution; projections based on available information with IMF staff adjustments. Starting in FY2020/21 expenditure includes the off-budget component of food subsidies consistent with revised budget treatment; IMF staff adjust to remove payments for previous years’ food subsidies included in FY2020/21 and FY2021/22 budget estimates.
- Japan: Projections reflect fiscal measures announced by government as of March 9, with IMF staff adjustments.
- Russia: Fiscal policy countercyclical in 2020; some consolidation in 2021 with deficit likely to return to the fiscal rule’s limit in 2022.
- Saudi Arabia: Baseline fiscal projections based on IMF staff understanding of government policies in the 2021 budget; exported oil revenues based on WEO baseline oil price assumptions and staff’s understanding of OPEC+ policy.
- Spain: 2020 projections include COVID-19 discretionary measures, legislated pension and public wage increases, minimum vital income; 2021 includes COVID-19 support and legislated measures; 2022 onward assume no policy changes. Disbursements under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility reflected for 2021–24.
- United Kingdom: Projections based on ONS GDP data of February 12, 2021 and OBR forecasts of November 23, 2020; revenue projections adjusted for IMF macro forecasts; assume expiration of coronavirus measures as announced and some additional consolidation starting in FY2023/24 to stabilize public debt within five years. Data presented on a calendar year basis.
- United States: Projections based on the September 2020 Congressional Budget Office baseline adjusted for IMF staff policy and macro assumptions; incorporate effects of the American Rescue Plan; the Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act; the Families First Coronavirus Response Act; the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act.

### Monetary policy assumptions and specific rate projections
- General framework: Monetary policy assumptions based on established policy frameworks in each country; typically imply a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle (rates increase if inflation expected to rise above acceptable range; decrease when inflation is below and output growth is below potential and slack is significant).
- Short-term interest rate assumptions (exact values):
  - LIBOR on six-month US dollar deposits is assumed to average 0.3 percent in 2021 and 0.4 percent in 2022.
  - Rate on three-month euro deposits is assumed to average –0.5 percent in 2021 and 2022.
  - Rate on six-month Japanese yen deposits is assumed to average –0.1 percent in 2021 and 0.0 percent in 2022.
- Country-specific monetary assumptions (selected highlights):
  - Argentina: Consistent with current framework targeting zero-based money growth in seasonally adjusted terms.
  - China: Monetary policy expected to remain supportive in 2021 and gradually tighten to be around neutral in 2022.
  - Denmark: Maintain peg to the euro.
  - Hong Kong SAR: Assumes currency board system remains intact.
  - New Zealand: Projections based on nominal GDP growth estimates and Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Large Assets Purchase Program.
  - Russia: Assumes the Central Bank of the Russian Federation adopts a moderately accommodative monetary policy stance.
  - Saudi Arabia: Projections based on continuation of exchange rate peg to the US dollar.
  - South Africa: Assumptions consistent with maintaining inflation within the 3 percent to 6 percent target band.
  - Switzerland: Projections assume no change in the policy rate in 2021–22.
  - Turkey: Baseline assumes authorities remain committed to a firm monetary policy stance, with no easing in 2021; further measured tightening likely if inflation expectations fail to stabilize.
  - United Kingdom: Short-term interest rate path based on market interest rate expectations.
  - United States: IMF staff expects the Federal Open Market Committee to continue to adjust the federal funds target rate in line with the broader macroeconomic outlook.

### Data treatment, accounting and notable methodological points
- IMF and some national presentations differ in recording of certain items (examples: India differs on disinvestment and license-auction proceeds, net versus gross recording of revenues in minor categories, and some public sector lending).
- IMF projections sometimes adjust authorities’ budget figures to reflect IMF macroeconomic assumptions and different accounting treatments (examples: Canada, France, Germany, Mexico, United States).
- Puerto Rico projections: Based on Puerto Rico Fiscal and Economic Growth Plans (FEGPs) certified in October 2018; IMF projections assume federal aid for rebuilding after Hurricane Maria and other specified fiscal changes; IMF projections differ from FEGPs mainly because IMF uses accrual basis while FEGPs use cash basis and because of different macroeconomic assumptions.
- Netherlands: Historical data revised following June 2014 release due to adoption of ESA and data source revisions.
- Spain: Disbursements under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility are reflected in projections for 2021–24.
- Sweden: Impact of cyclical developments on fiscal accounts calculated using the 2014 OECD elasticity to account for output and employment gaps.
- Turkey: WEO and Fiscal Monitor use an IMF-defined fiscal balance that excludes some revenue and expenditure items included in authorities’ headline balance.

*International Monetary Fund | April 2021 — STATISTICAL APPENDIX (Box A1 and related country notes)*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2021/april/english/stasapp.pdf_