## statapp-intro - 0.4 percent in 2023.

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [statapp-intro - 0.4 percent in 2023.](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/statapp-intro.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/statapp-intro.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/statapp-intro.pdf.json)

---

### What’s New
- For Ecuador, fiscal sector projections are excluded from publication for 2022–27 because of ongoing program review discussions.
- Ethiopia’s forecast data, which were previously omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty, are now included.
- Fiji’s fiscal data and forecasts are now presented on a fiscal year basis.
- For Tunisia, projections are excluded from publication for 2023–27 because of ongoing technical discussions pending potential program negotiations.
- For Ukraine, all projections for 2022–27 except Real GDP are omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty. Real GDP is projected through 2022.
- Venezuela redenominated its currency on October 1, 2021, by replacing 1,000,000 bolívares soberanos (VES) with 1 bolívar digital (VED).
- Beginning with the April 2022 WEO, the interest rate assumptions are based on the three-month and 10-year government bond yields, which replace the London interbank offered rates.
- In regard to the introduction of the euro:
  - On December 31, 1998, the Council of the European Union decided that, effective January 1, 1999, the irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro and currencies of the member countries adopting the euro are as described in Box 5.4 of the October 1998 WEO.
  - See Box 5.4 of the October 1998 WEO for details on how the conversion rates were established.
  - For the most recent table of fixed conversion rates, see the Statistical Appendix of the October 2020 WEO.

### Data and Conventions
- Data and projections for 196 economies form the statistical basis of the WEO database.
- The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and regional departments, with the latter regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.
- Most countries’ macroeconomic data as presented in the WEO conform broadly to the 2008 version of the System of National Accounts (2008 SNA).
- The IMF’s sector statistical standards—the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6), the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide (MFSMCG), and the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014)—have been aligned with the SNA 2008.
- The process of adapting country data to the new standards begins in earnest when the manuals are released; full concordance depends on the provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data, so the WEO estimates are only partly adapted to these manuals.
- The fiscal gross and net debt data reported in the WEO are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates. Attempts are made to align gross and net debt data with the definitions in the GFSM, but data limitations or specific country circumstances can lead to deviations from formal definitions.
- Differences in both sectoral and instrument coverage mean that the data are not universally comparable. Changes in data sources or instrument coverage can give rise to data revisions that can sometimes be substantial.
- For clarification on deviations in sectoral or instrument coverage, refer to the metadata for the online WEO database.

### Composite and Aggregation Conventions
- Composite data for country groups in the WEO are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries.
- Unless noted otherwise, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change.
- Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data for the emerging market and developing economies group—except data on inflation and money growth, for which geometric averages are used.
- Conventions:
  - Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to US dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.
  - Composites for other data relating to the domestic economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total world or group GDP.
  - For the aggregation of world and advanced economies (and subgroups) inflation, annual rates are simple percentage changes from the previous years; for the aggregation of emerging market and developing economies (and subgroups) inflation, annual rates are based on logarithmic differences.
  - Composites for real GDP per capita in purchasing-power-parity terms are sums of individual country data after conversion to the international dollar in the years indicated.
  - Unless noted otherwise, composites for all sectors for the euro area are corrected for reporting discrepancies in intra-area transactions.
  - Unadjusted annual GDP data are used for the euro area and for the majority of individual countries, except for Cyprus, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain, which report calendar-adjusted data.
  - For data prior to 1999, data aggregations apply 1995 European currency unit exchange rates.
  - Composites for fiscal data are sums of individual country data after conversion to US dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated.
  - Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.
  - Composites relating to external sector statistics are sums of individual country data after conversion to US dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than US dollars.
  - Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices are arithmetic averages of percent changes for individual countries weighted by the US dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).
  - Unless noted otherwise, group composites are computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group weights is represented.
- Data refer to calendar years, except in the case of a few countries that use fiscal years; Table F lists the economies with exceptional reporting periods for national accounts and government finance data for each country.
- For some countries, the figures for 2021 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns; Table G lists the latest actual outturns for the indicators in the national accounts, prices, government finance, and balance of payments indicators for each country.

### Country Notes (selected)
- Afghanistan: Data and projections for 2021–27 are omitted because of an unusually high degree of uncertainty given that the IMF has paused its engagement with the country due to a lack of clarity within the international community regarding the recognition of a government in Afghanistan.
- Argentina: The official national consumer price index (CPI) for Argentina starts in December 2016. For earlier periods, CPI data for Argentina are compiled from multiple series with limited comparability (see Argentina: Consumer Price Index and labor market data).
- Lebanon: Data and projections for 2021–27 are omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty. Official GDP numbers were available only through 2019 at the time of WEO database preparation.
- Libya: Reliability of data, especially national accounts and medium-term projections, is low given civil war and weak capacity.
- Syria: Data are excluded from 2011 onward because of the uncertain political situation.
- Tunisia: Projections are excluded from publication for 2023–27 because of ongoing technical discussions pending potential program negotiations.
- Ukraine: All projections for 2022–27 except real GDP are omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty. Real GDP is projected through 2022.
- Venezuela: Projecting the economic outlook is complicated by lack of discussions with authorities (last Article IV consultation in 2004), incomplete understanding of reported data, and interpretation difficulties for certain indicators. Venezuela’s consumer prices are excluded from all WEO group composites.
- Zimbabwe: In 2019 authorities introduced the Real Time Gross Settlement dollar, later renamed the Zimbabwe dollar, and are in the process of redenominating national accounts statistics. Current data are subject to revision.

### Argentina: Consumer Price Index and labor market data
- CPI coverage for 2016 and earlier periods:
  - Greater Buenos Aires Area CPI (prior to December 2013)
  - National CPI (IPCNu, December 2013 to October 2015)
  - City of Buenos Aires CPI (November 2015 to April 2016)
  - Greater Buenos Aires Area CPI (May 2016 to December 2016)
- Given limited comparability of these series on account of differences in geographical coverage, weights, sampling, and methodology:
  - The average CPI inflation for 2014–16 and end-of-period inflation for 2015–16 are not reported in the WEO.
- Inflation projections:
  - Reflect the upper bound of the program range given recent world commodity price developments.
- Labor market data:
  - Argentina discontinued the publication of labor market data starting in the fourth quarter of 2015.
  - New series became available starting in the second quarter of 2016.

### Country-specific data caveats, exclusions, and revisions (selected)
- Bangladesh:
  - Data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis.
  - Country group aggregates that include Bangladesh use calendar year estimates of real GDP and purchasing-power-parity GDP.
- Costa Rica:
  - The central government definition expanded as of January 1, 2021, to include 51 public entities as per Law 9524.
  - Data are adjusted back to 2019 for comparability.
- Dominican Republic:
  - Fiscal series coverage: public debt, debt service, and the cyclically adjusted/structural balances are for the consolidated public sector; remaining fiscal series are for the central government.
- Ecuador:
  - Fiscal sector projections are excluded from publication for 2022–27 because of ongoing program review discussions.
  - Authorities undertaking revisions of historical fiscal data with IMF technical support.
- India:
  - Real GDP growth rates are calculated as per national accounts:
    - for 1998 to 2011 with base year 2004/05
    - and, thereafter, with base year 2011/12.
- Turkmenistan:
  - Real GDP data are IMF staff estimates compiled in line with international methodologies (SNA), using official estimates and United Nations and World Bank databases.
  - Estimates and projections of the fiscal balance exclude receipts from domestic bond issuances and privatization operations, in line with GFSM 2014.
  - Authorities’ official estimates include bond issuance and privatization proceeds as part of government revenues.
- Uruguay:
  - National accounts reported according to SNA 2008, base year 2016; new series begin in 2016; data prior to 2016 reflect IMF staff’s best effort to preserve previously reported data and avoid structural breaks.
  - Starting in October 2018 public pension system transfers recorded as revenues consistent with the IMF’s methodology. These transfers:
    - amounted to 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018,
    - 1.1 percent of GDP in 2019,
    - 0.6 percent of GDP in 2020,
    - projected to be 0.3 percent of GDP in 2021,
    - and zero percent thereafter.
  - Coverage of fiscal data changed from consolidated public sector to nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 WEO; historical data revised accordingly.
- Venezuela:
  - Fiscal accounts include budgetary central government; social security; FOGADE; and a sample of public enterprises, including PDVSA; data for 2018–21 are IMF staff estimates.
  - Public external debt in relation to GDP is projected using the IMF staff’s estimate of the average exchange rate for the year.
  - Wide uncertainty surrounds these projections.

### Classification of countries in the World Economic Outlook
- The WEO divides the world into two major groups:
  - advanced economies
  - emerging market and developing economies
- Advanced economies:
  - Table B lists the 40 advanced economies.
  - The seven largest in GDP based on market exchange rates—United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies (the Group of Seven).
  - Members of the euro area are distinguished as a subgroup; composite data for the euro area cover the current members for all years.
- Emerging market and developing economies:
  - The group (156) includes all those not classified as advanced economies.
  - Regional breakdowns: emerging and developing Asia; emerging and developing Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; Middle East and Central Asia (comprising subgroups Caucasus and Central Asia; and Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan); and sub-Saharan Africa.
  - Analytical classifications include:
    - By source of export earnings: fuel (SITC 3), nonfuel, and nonfuel primary products (SITCs 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68). Economies are categorized in a group if their main source of export earnings exceeded 50 percent of total exports on average between 2016 and 2020.
    - Financial and income criteria: net creditor economies, net debtor economies, heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), low-income developing countries (LIDCs), and emerging market and middle-income economies (EMMIEs).
  - Economies are categorized as net debtors when their latest net international investment position, where available, was less than zero or their current account balance accumulations from 1972 (or earliest available data) to 2020 were negative.
  - The HIPC group comprises countries that are or have been considered by the IMF and the World Bank for participation in the HIPC Initiative.
  - LIDCs threshold:
    - Per capita income threshold set at $2,700 in 2016 as measured by the World Bank’s Atlas method.
  - EMMIEs:
    - Emerging market and developing economies not classified as LIDCs.

### Key aggregate shares from Table A (2021)
- Advanced Economies: 40 economies
  - Advanced Economies share of world GDP: 100.0 (Advanced Economies) 42.1 (World)
  - Advanced Economies share of world exports of goods and services: 100.0 (Advanced Economies) 61.4 (World)
  - Advanced Economies share of world population: 100.0 (Advanced Economies) 14.0 (World)
- United States:
  - GDP share: 37.4 (Advanced Economies) 15.7 (World)
  - Exports share: 14.9 (Advanced Economies) 9.1 (World)
  - Population share: 30.8 (Advanced Economies) 4.3 (World)
- Euro Area (19):
  - GDP share: 28.5 (Advanced Economies) 12.0 (World)
  - Exports share: 24.4 (Advanced Economies) 26.0 (World)
  - Population share: 31.6 (Advanced Economies) 4.4 (World)
- Major Advanced Economies memorandum: 7 economies
  - GDP share: 73.3 (Advanced Economies) 30.8 (World)
  - Exports share: 50.1 (Advanced Economies) 30.8 (World)
  - Population share: 71.6 (Advanced Economies) 10.0 (World)
- Emerging Market and Developing Economies: 156 economies
  - Share of group/world GDP: 100.0 (Emerging Market and Developing Economies) 57.9 (World)
  - Share of group/world exports: 100.0 (Emerging Market and Developing Economies) 38.6 (World)
  - Share of group/world population: 100.0 (Emerging Market and Developing Economies) 86.0 (World)
- Regional highlights (Emerging and Developing Asia):
  - Emerging and Developing Asia: 30 economies; GDP share: 56.0 (group) 32.4 (world)
  - China: GDP share: 32.1 (group) 18.6 (world)
  - India: GDP share: 12.1 (group) 7.0 (world)

### Economies with exceptional reporting periods and key data documentation
- Table F lists economies with non-calendar national accounts or government finance years (examples include Bangladesh Jul/Jun; India Apr/Mar; Thailand Oct/Sep; and others). Unless noted, all data refer to calendar years.
- Table G documents currency, national accounts base year, system of national accounts in use, CPI historical data source and latest actual annual data, government finance historical data source and latest actual annual data, balance of payments historical data source and latest actual annual data, statistics manual in use, subsectors coverage, and accounting practice for each economy.
  - Examples from Table G:
    - Argentina: Currency Argentine peso; National accounts historical data source NSO; Latest Actual Annual Data 2020; Base Year 2004; System SNA 2008; CPI historical data source NSO; Latest Actual Annual Data 2021.
    - Bangladesh: Currency Bangladesh taka; National accounts historical data source NSO; Latest Actual Annual Data 2019/2020; Base Year 05/06; System SNA 2008; Government finance historical data source MoF; Latest Actual Annual Data 2018/19.
    - Uruguay: Currency Uruguayan peso; CPI historical data source CB; Latest Actual Annual Data 2020; National accounts Latest Actual Annual Data 2016; System SNA 2008.
  - Note: BPM = Balance of Payments Manual; CPI = consumer price index; ESA = European System of National Accounts; SNA = System of National Accounts.

### Fiscal policy assumptions and country-specific projection bases (summary of Box A1)
- General approach:
  - Short-term fiscal policy assumptions normally based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between national authorities and IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns.
  - When no official budget has been announced, projections incorporate policy measures judged likely to be implemented.
  - Medium-term fiscal projections are based on judgment about the most likely path of policies.
  - Where IMF staff lacks sufficient information, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed unless otherwise indicated.
- Selected country assumptions and information (highlights):
  - Argentina: Projections based on available information regarding federal government budget outturn and plans, announced fiscal measures, and IMF staff macroeconomic projections.
  - Brazil: Fiscal projections for 2021 reflect policy announcements.
  - China: After significant tightening in 2021, pace of fiscal tightening projected to slow in 2022 based on Article IV findings and public statements.
  - India: Based on available information on authorities’ fiscal plans with IMF staff adjustments; subnational data incorporated with up to one-year lag.
  - Puerto Rico:
    - Fiscal projections based on Puerto Rico Fiscal and Economic Growth Plans (FEGPs) prepared January 2022 and certified by the Financial Oversight and Management Board.
    - The 2022 Fiscal Plan calls for structural reforms and represents an unprecedented level of fiscal support—over 100 percent of Puerto Rico’s gross national product.
    - IMF staff projections rely on this information and assume the fiscal position will deteriorate over time; IMF projections differ from FEGP due to accrual vs. cash basis and differing macro assumptions.
  - Russia:
    - Fiscal rule suspended in response to sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine.
    - Projection assumes an increase in discretionary spending equal to the amount that would otherwise have been saved under the fiscal rule and a decline in revenues due to projected deep recession.
  - Saudi Arabia: Baseline fiscal projections based on understanding of 2022 budget; export oil revenues based on WEO baseline oil price assumptions and IMF staff understanding of OPEC+ agreement.

### FY2022 fiscal assumptions and major announced measures (selected)
- FY2022 projections are based on the initial FY2022 budget of February 18, 2022.
- IMF staff assumes gradual withdrawal of remaining pandemic-related measures and implementation of various revenue measures announced in the FY2022 budget for the remainder of the projection period, including:
  - (1) the increase of the Good and Services Tax (GST) from 7 percent to 8   percent on 1 January 2023, and to 9 percent on 1 January 2024;
  - (2) the increase of the property tax in 2023 for non-owner-occupied properties (from 10–20 percent to 12–36 percent) and owner-occupied properties with an annual value in excess of $30,000 (from 4–16 percent to 6–32 percent); and
  - (3) the increase of the carbon tax from S$5 per tonne of CO2 emissions to S$25 per tonne in 2024 and 2025 and $45 per tonne in 2026 and 2027.
- South Africa:
  - Fiscal assumptions draw on the 2022 Budget Review.
  - Nontax revenue excludes transactions in financial assets and liabilities, as they involve primarily revenues associated with realized exchange rate valuation gains from the holding of foreign currency deposits, sale of assets, and conceptually similar items.
- Spain:
  - Fiscal projections for 2021 include COVID-19–related support measures, the legislated increase in pensions, and the legislated revenue measures.
  - Fiscal projections from 2022 onward assume no policy changes.
  - Disbursements under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility are reflected in the projections for 2021–24.
- United Kingdom:
  - Projections assume that there is some additional fiscal consolidation relative to the policies announced to date starting in FY2023/24 with the goal of complying with the new fiscal rules announced at the time of the Spending Review on October 27, 2021, and to secure public debt sustainability.
- United States:
  - Fiscal projections are based on the July 2021 Congressional Budget Office baseline, adjusted for the IMF staff’s policy and macroeconomic assumptions.
  - Projections incorporate the effects of the proposed American Jobs Plan; the American Families Plan; the Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan; the legislated American Rescue Plan; the Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act; the Families First Coronavirus Response Act; the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act; and the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act.

### Monetary policy assumptions: framework and headline rate projections
- Monetary policy assumptions are based on the established policy framework in each country and generally imply a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle.
- Short- and long-term interest rate assumptions (averages):
  - Three-month government bond yield:
    - United States: will average 0.9 percent in 2022 and 2.4 percent in 2023.
    - Euro area: will average –0.7 percent in 2022 and 0.0 in 2023.
    - Japan: will average 0.0 percent in 2022 and 0.1 percent in 2023.
  - 10-year government bond yield:
    - United States: will average 2.6 percent in 2022 and 3.4 percent in 2023.
    - Euro area: will average 0.4 percent in 2022 and 0.6 percent in 2023.
    - Japan: will average 0.3 percent in 2022 and 0.4 percent in 2023.

### Country-specific monetary policy notes (selected)
- Argentina: Monetary projections are consistent with the overall macroeconomic framework, the fiscal and financing plans, and the monetary and foreign exchange policies under the crawling peg regime.
- Canada:
  - Monetary policy assumptions reflect the latest decision by the Bank of Canada and its updated forecast.
  - The Bank of Canada has started raising interest rates and confirmed the increasing rate path into the future.
- China: The overall monetary policy stance was moderately tight in 2021, but it is expected to be moderately accommodative in 2022.
- Denmark: Monetary policy is to maintain the peg to the euro.
- Hong Kong SAR: The IMF staff assumes that the currency board system will remain intact.
- Russia: Monetary projections assume that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is adopting a tight monetary policy stance.
- Saudi Arabia: Monetary policy projections are based on the continuation of the exchange rate peg to the US dollar.
- South Africa: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with maintaining inflation within the 3–6 percent target band.
- Switzerland: The projections assume no change in the policy rate in 2022–23.
- United Kingdom: The short-term interest rate path is based on market interest rate expectations.
- United States: The IMF staff expects the Federal Open Market Committee to continue to adjust the federal funds target rate in line with the broader macroeconomic outlook.

*Source: STATISTICAL APPENDIX, WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: WAR SETS BACK THE GLOBAL RECOVERY, International Monetary Fund | April 2022*

### 0.4 percent in 2023.

### statapp-intro - 0.4 percent in 2023.

### What’s New
- For Ecuador, fiscal sector projections are excluded from publication for 2022–27 because of ongoing program review discussions.
- Ethiopia’s forecast data, which were previously omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty, are now included.
- Fiji’s fiscal data and forecasts are now presented on a fiscal year basis.
- For Tunisia, projections are excluded from publication for 2023–27 because of ongoing technical discussions pending potential program negotiations.
- For Ukraine, all projections for 2022–27 except Real GDP are omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty. Real GDP is projected through 2022.
- Venezuela redenominated its currency on October 1, 2021, by replacing 1,000,000 bolívares soberanos (VES) with 1 bolívar digital (VED).
- Beginning with the April 2022 WEO, the interest rate assumptions are based on the three-month and 10-year government bond yields, which replace the London interbank offered rates.

- In regard to the introduction of the euro:
  - On December 31, 1998, the Council of the European Union decided that, effective January 1, 1999, the irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro and currencies of the member countries adopting the euro are as described in Box 5.4 of the October 1998 WEO.
  - See Box 5.4 of the October 1998 WEO for details on how the conversion rates were established.
  - For the most recent table of fixed conversion rates, see the Statistical Appendix of the October 2020 WEO.

### Data and Conventions
- Data and projections for 196 economies form the statistical basis of the WEO database.
- The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and regional departments, with the latter regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.
- Most countries’ macroeconomic data as presented in the WEO conform broadly to the 2008 version of the System of National Accounts (2008 SNA).
- The IMF’s sector statistical standards—the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6), the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide (MFSMCG), and the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014)—have been aligned with the SNA 2008.
- The process of adapting country data to the new standards begins in earnest when the manuals are released; full concordance depends on the provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data, so the WEO estimates are only partly adapted to these manuals.
- The fiscal gross and net debt data reported in the WEO are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates. Attempts are made to align gross and net debt data with the definitions in the GFSM, but data limitations or specific country circumstances can lead to deviations from formal definitions.
- Differences in both sectoral and instrument coverage mean that the data are not universally comparable. Changes in data sources or instrument coverage can give rise to data revisions that can sometimes be substantial.
- For clarification on deviations in sectoral or instrument coverage, refer to the metadata for the online WEO database.

### Composite and Aggregation Conventions
- Composite data for country groups in the WEO are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries.
- Unless noted otherwise, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change.
- Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data for the emerging market and developing economies group—except data on inflation and money growth, for which geometric averages are used.
- Conventions:
  - Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to US dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.
  - Composites for other data relating to the domestic economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total world or group GDP.
  - For the aggregation of world and advanced economies (and subgroups) inflation, annual rates are simple percentage changes from the previous years; for the aggregation of emerging market and developing economies (and subgroups) inflation, annual rates are based on logarithmic differences.
  - Composites for real GDP per capita in purchasing-power-parity terms are sums of individual country data after conversion to the international dollar in the years indicated.
  - Unless noted otherwise, composites for all sectors for the euro area are corrected for reporting discrepancies in intra-area transactions.
  - Unadjusted annual GDP data are used for the euro area and for the majority of individual countries, except for Cyprus, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain, which report calendar-adjusted data.
  - For data prior to 1999, data aggregations apply 1995 European currency unit exchange rates.
  - Composites for fiscal data are sums of individual country data after conversion to US dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated.
  - Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.
  - Composites relating to external sector statistics are sums of individual country data after conversion to US dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than US dollars.
  - Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices are arithmetic averages of percent changes for individual countries weighted by the US dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).
  - Unless noted otherwise, group composites are computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group weights is represented.

- Data refer to calendar years, except in the case of a few countries that use fiscal years; Table F lists the economies with exceptional reporting periods for national accounts and government finance data for each country.
- For some countries, the figures for 2021 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns; Table G lists the latest actual outturns for the indicators in the national accounts, prices, government finance, and balance of payments indicators for each country.

### Country Notes (selected)
- Afghanistan: Data and projections for 2021–27 are omitted because of an unusually high degree of uncertainty given that the IMF has paused its engagement with the country due to a lack of clarity within the international community regarding the recognition of a government in Afghanistan.
- Argentina: The official national consumer price index (CPI) for Argentina starts in December

*Source: STATISTICAL APPENDIX, WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: WAR SETS BACK THE GLOBAL RECOVERY, International Monetary Fund | April 2022*

### 2016. For earlier periods, CPI data for Argentina

### statapp-intro - 2016. For earlier periods, CPI data for Argentina

### Argentina: Consumer Price Index and labor market data
- CPI coverage for 2016 and earlier periods:
  - Greater Buenos Aires Area CPI (prior to December 2013)
  - National CPI (IPCNu, December 2013 to October 2015)
  - City of Buenos Aires CPI (November 2015 to April 2016)
  - Greater Buenos Aires Area CPI (May 2016 to December 2016)
- Given limited comparability of these series on account of differences in geographical coverage, weights, sampling, and methodology:
  - The average CPI inflation for 2014–16 and end-of-period inflation for 2015–16 are not reported in the WEO.
- Inflation projections:
  - Reflect the upper bound of the program range given recent world commodity price developments.
- Labor market data:
  - Argentina discontinued the publication of labor market data starting in the fourth quarter of 2015.
  - New series became available starting in the second quarter of 2016.

### Country-specific data caveats, exclusions, and revisions
- Bangladesh:
  - Data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis.
  - Country group aggregates that include Bangladesh use calendar year estimates of real GDP and purchasing-power-parity GDP.
- Costa Rica:
  - The central government definition expanded as of January 1, 2021, to include 51 public entities as per Law 9524.
  - Data are adjusted back to 2019 for comparability.
- Dominican Republic:
  - Fiscal series coverage: public debt, debt service, and the cyclically adjusted/structural balances are for the consolidated public sector; remaining fiscal series are for the central government.
- Ecuador:
  - Fiscal sector projections are excluded from publication for 2022–27 because of ongoing program review discussions.
  - Authorities undertaking revisions of historical fiscal data with IMF technical support.
- India:
  - Real GDP growth rates are calculated as per national accounts:
    - for 1998 to 2011 with base year 2004/05
    - and, thereafter, with base year 2011/12.
- Lebanon:
  - Data and projections for 2021–27 are omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty.
  - Official GDP numbers were available only through 2019 at the time of WEO database preparation.
- Libya:
  - Reliability of data, especially national accounts and medium-term projections, is low given civil war and weak capacity.
- Syria:
  - Data are excluded from 2011 onward because of the uncertain political situation.
- Tunisia:
  - Projections are excluded from publication for 2023–27 because of ongoing technical discussions pending potential program negotiations.
- Turkmenistan:
  - Real GDP data are IMF staff estimates compiled in line with international methodologies (SNA), using official estimates and United Nations and World Bank databases.
  - Estimates and projections of the fiscal balance exclude receipts from domestic bond issuances and privatization operations, in line with GFSM 2014.
  - Authorities’ official estimates include bond issuance and privatization proceeds as part of government revenues.
- Ukraine:
  - All projections for 2022–27 except real GDP are omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty.
  - Real GDP is projected through 2022.
  - Revised national accounts data are available beginning in 2000 and exclude Crimea and Sevastopol from 2010 onward.
- Uruguay:
  - National accounts reported according to SNA 2008, base year 2016; new series begin in 2016; data prior to 2016 reflect IMF staff’s best effort to preserve previously reported data and avoid structural breaks.
  - Starting in October 2018 public pension system transfers recorded as revenues consistent with the IMF’s methodology. These transfers:
    - amounted to 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018,
    - 1.1 percent of GDP in 2019,
    - 0.6 percent of GDP in 2020,
    - projected to be 0.3 percent of GDP in 2021,
    - and zero percent thereafter.
  - The pension-system disclaimer applies only to the revenues and net lending/borrowing series.
  - Coverage of fiscal data changed from consolidated public sector to nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 WEO; historical data revised accordingly.
  - Under the narrower fiscal perimeter (excluding the central bank), capitalization bonds issued in the past by the government to the central bank are now part of the nonfinancial public sector debt.
  - Gross and net debt estimates for 2008–11 are preliminary.
- Venezuela:
  - Projecting the economic outlook is complicated by lack of discussions with authorities (last Article IV consultation in 2004), incomplete understanding of reported data, and interpretation difficulties for certain indicators.
  - Fiscal accounts include budgetary central government; social security; FOGADE; and a sample of public enterprises, including PDVSA; data for 2018–21 are IMF staff estimates.
  - Effects of hyperinflation and paucity of reported data mean IMF staff projected macroeconomic indicators need to be interpreted with caution.
  - Public external debt in relation to GDP is projected using the IMF staff’s estimate of the average exchange rate for the year.
  - Wide uncertainty surrounds these projections.
  - Venezuela’s consumer prices are excluded from all WEO group composites.
- Zimbabwe:
  - In 2019 authorities introduced the Real Time Gross Settlement dollar, later renamed the Zimbabwe dollar, and are in the process of redenominating national accounts statistics.
  - Current data are subject to revision.
  - The Zimbabwe dollar previously ceased circulating in 2009; during 2009–19 Zimbabwe operated under a multicurrency regime with the US dollar as the unit of account.

### Classification of countries in the World Economic Outlook
- The WEO divides the world into two major groups:
  - advanced economies
  - emerging market and developing economies
- The classification is not based on strict criteria; objective is to facilitate analysis.
- Advanced economies:
  - Table B lists the 40 advanced economies.
  - The seven largest in GDP based on market exchange rates—United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies (the Group of Seven).
  - Members of the euro area are distinguished as a subgroup; composite data for the euro area cover the current members for all years.
- Emerging market and developing economies:
  - The group (156) includes all those not classified as advanced economies.
  - Regional breakdowns: emerging and developing Asia; emerging and developing Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; Middle East and Central Asia (comprising subgroups Caucasus and Central Asia; and Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan); and sub-Saharan Africa.
  - Analytical classifications include:
    - By source of export earnings: fuel (SITC 3), nonfuel, and nonfuel primary products (SITCs 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68). Economies are categorized in a group if their main source of export earnings exceeded 50 percent of total exports on average between 2016 and 2020.
    - Financial and income criteria: net creditor economies, net debtor economies, heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), low-income developing countries (LIDCs), and emerging market and middle-income economies (EMMIEs).
  - Economies are categorized as net debtors when their latest net international investment position, where available, was less than zero or their current account balance accumulations from 1972 (or earliest available data) to 2020 were negative.
  - The HIPC group comprises countries that are or have been considered by the IMF and the World Bank for participation in the HIPC Initiative.
  - LIDCs threshold:
    - Per capita income threshold set at $2,700 in 2016 as measured by the World Bank’s Atlas method.
  - EMMIEs:
    - Emerging market and developing economies not classified as LIDCs.

### Key aggregate shares from Table A (2021)
- Advanced Economies: 40 economies
  - Advanced Economies share of world GDP: 100.0 (Advanced Economies) 42.1 (World)
  - Advanced Economies share of world exports of goods and services: 100.0 (Advanced Economies) 61.4 (World)
  - Advanced Economies share of world population: 100.0 (Advanced Economies) 14.0 (World)
- United States:
  - GDP share: 37.4 (Advanced Economies) 15.7 (World)
  - Exports share: 14.9 (Advanced Economies) 9.1 (World)
  - Population share: 30.8 (Advanced Economies) 4.3 (World)
- Euro Area (19):
  - GDP share: 28.5 (Advanced Economies) 12.0 (World)
  - Exports share: 24.4 (Advanced Economies) 26.0 (World)
  - Population share: 31.6 (Advanced Economies) 4.4 (World)
- Major Advanced Economies memorandum: 7 economies
  - GDP share: 73.3 (Advanced Economies) 30.8 (World)
  - Exports share: 50.1 (Advanced Economies) 30.8 (World)
  - Population share: 71.6 (Advanced Economies) 10.0 (World)
- Emerging Market and Developing Economies: 156 economies
  - Share of group/world GDP: 100.0 (Emerging Market and Developing Economies) 57.9 (World)
  - Share of group/world exports: 100.0 (Emerging Market and Developing Economies) 38.6 (World)
  - Share of group/world population: 100.0 (Emerging Market and Developing Economies) 86.0 (World)
- Regional highlights (Emerging and Developing Asia):
  - Emerging and Developing Asia: 30 economies; GDP share: 56.0 (group) 32.4 (world)
  - China: GDP share: 32.1 (group) 18.6 (world)
  - India: GDP share: 12.1 (group) 7.0 (world)

### Economies with exceptional reporting periods and key data documentation
- Table F lists economies with non-calendar national accounts or government finance years (examples include Bangladesh Jul/Jun; India Apr/Mar; Thailand Oct/Sep; and others). Unless noted, all data refer to calendar years.
- Table G documents currency, national accounts base year, system of national accounts in use, CPI historical data source and latest actual annual data, government finance historical data source and latest actual annual data, balance of payments historical data source and latest actual annual data, statistics manual in use, subsectors coverage, and accounting practice for each economy.
  - Examples from Table G:
    - Argentina: Currency Argentine peso; National accounts historical data source NSO; Latest Actual Annual Data 2020; Base Year 2004; System SNA 2008; CPI historical data source NSO; Latest Actual Annual Data 2021.
    - Bangladesh: Currency Bangladesh taka; National accounts historical data source NSO; Latest Actual Annual Data 2019/2020; Base Year 05/06; System SNA 2008; Government finance historical data source MoF; Latest Actual Annual Data 2018/19.
    - Uruguay: Currency Uruguayan peso; CPI historical data source CB; Latest Actual Annual Data 2020; National accounts Latest Actual Annual Data 2016; System SNA 2008.
  - Note: BPM = Balance of Payments Manual; CPI = consumer price index; ESA = European System of National Accounts; SNA = System of National Accounts.
  - Footnotes explain abbreviations and methodological notes (for example, use of chain-weighted methodology, subsectors coverage codes, and accounting practice codes).

### Fiscal policy assumptions and country-specific projection bases (summary of Box A1)
- General approach:
  - Short-term fiscal policy assumptions normally based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between national authorities and IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns.
  - When no official budget has been announced, projections incorporate policy measures judged likely to be implemented.
  - Medium-term fiscal projections are based on judgment about the most likely path of policies.
  - Where IMF staff lacks sufficient information, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed unless otherwise indicated.
- Selected country assumptions and information:
  - Argentina: Projections based on available information regarding federal government budget outturn and plans, announced fiscal measures, and IMF staff macroeconomic projections.
  - Australia: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics, FY2022/23 Commonwealth budget (March 2022), FY2021/22 state/territory budgets, and IMF staff estimates and projections.
  - Austria: Based on 2022 budget, Austria Stability Programme, Austria National Reform Programme 2021, EU recovery funds, and latest announcements on fiscal measures.
  - Belgium: Based on 2021–24 Stability Program, Draft Budgetary Plan for 2022, and other information with IMF staff adjustments.
  - Brazil: Fiscal projections for 2021 reflect policy announcements.
  - Canada: Uses baseline forecasts from Economic and Fiscal Update 2021 and latest provincial budgets; IMF staff adjustments for macro differences.
  - Chile: Based on authorities’ budget projections adjusted for IMF staff GDP, copper prices, depreciation, and inflation projections.
  - China: After significant tightening in 2021, pace of fiscal tightening projected to slow in 2022 based on Article IV findings and public statements.
  - Denmark: Current year estimates aligned with latest official budget numbers, adjusted for IMF staff macro assumptions; structural balances net of temporary fluctuations and one-offs (COVID-19 one-offs included).
  - France: Projections for 2022 onward based on measures of the 2018–22 budget laws adjusted for revenue projection differences and macro/financial assumptions.
  - Germany: Projections based on provisional 2022 budget, federal medium-term plan, data updates from Destatis and ministry of finance; gross debt estimate includes transferred impaired assets and noncore business.
  - Greece: Data since 2010 reflect adjustments in line with enhanced surveillance primary balance definition.
  - Hong Kong SAR: Based on authorities’ medium-term fiscal projections of expenditures.
  - Hungary: Projections include IMF staff macro framework and fiscal policy plans announced in 2020 budget.
  - India: Based on available information on authorities’ fiscal plans with IMF staff adjustments; subnational data incorporated with up to one-year lag; changes from FY2020/21 on treatment of food subsidies noted.
  - Indonesia: Projections assume moderate tax policy and administration reforms, some expenditure realization, and gradual capital spending increases.
  - Ireland: Based on Budget 2022.
  - Israel: Projections assume more modest spending cuts than authorities’ medium-term targets.
  - Italy: Informed by 2021 fiscal plans and amendments; stock of maturing postal bonds included in debt projections.
  - Japan: Projections reflect fiscal measures already announced, adjusted for IMF staff assumptions.
  - Korea: Incorporates 2022 annual budget and supplementary budget, medium-term plan, and IMF staff adjustments.
  - Mexico: 2020 public sector borrowing requirements adjusted for statistical discrepancies; 2022 projections informed by 2022 budget proposal; 2023 onward assume compliance with Fiscal Responsibility Law.
  - The Netherlands: Projections for 2021–27 based on IMF staff forecast framework and informed by authorities’ draft budget plan and Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis projections.
  - New Zealand: Based on Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2021 and IMF staff estimates.
  - Portugal: Current-year projections based on approved budget adjusted to IMF staff macro forecast; thereafter assume unchanged policies.
  - Puerto Rico:
    - Fiscal projections based on Puerto Rico Fiscal and Economic Growth Plans (FEGPs) prepared January 2022 and certified by the Financial Oversight and Management Board.
    - The 2022 Fiscal Plan calls for structural reforms and represents an unprecedented level of fiscal support—over 100 percent of Puerto Rico’s gross national product.
    - IMF staff projections rely on this information and assume the fiscal position will deteriorate over time; IMF projections differ from FEGP due to accrual vs. cash basis and differing macro assumptions.
  - Russia:
    - Fiscal rule suspended in response to sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine.
    - Projection assumes an increase in discretionary spending equal to the amount that would otherwise have been saved under the fiscal rule and a decline in revenues due to projected deep recession.
  - Saudi Arabia: Baseline fiscal projections based on understanding of 2022 budget; export oil revenues based on WEO baseline oil price assumptions and IMF staff understanding of OPEC+ agreement.
  - Singapore: FY2020 figures based on budget execution; FY2021 projections based on revised figures from budget execution.

*International Monetary Fund | World Economic Outlook Statistical Appendix (April 2022), statapp-intro - 2016. For earlier periods, CPI data for Argentina*

### 2021. FY2022 projections are based on the initial

### statapp-intro - 2021. FY2022 projections are based on the initial

### Fiscal assumptions and major announced measures
- FY2022 projections are based on the initial FY2022 budget of February 18, 2022.
- IMF staff assumes gradual withdrawal of remaining pandemic-related measures and implementation of various revenue measures announced in the FY2022 budget for the remainder of the projection period, including:
  - (1) the increase of the Good and Services Tax (GST) from 7 percent to 8   percent on 1 January 2023, and to 9 percent on 1 January 2024;
  - (2) the increase of the property tax in 2023 for non-owner-occupied properties (from 10–20 percent to 12–36 percent) and owner-occupied properties with an annual value in excess of $30,000 (from 4–16 percent to 6–32 percent); and
  - (3) the increase of the carbon tax from S$5 per tonne of CO2 emissions to S$25 per tonne in 2024 and 2025 and $45 per tonne in 2026 and 2027.
- South Africa:
  - Fiscal assumptions draw on the 2022 Budget Review.
  - Nontax revenue excludes transactions in financial assets and liabilities, as they involve primarily revenues associated with realized exchange rate valuation gains from the holding of foreign currency deposits, sale of assets, and conceptually similar items.
- Spain:
  - Fiscal projections for 2021 include COVID-19–related support measures, the legislated increase in pensions, and the legislated revenue measures.
  - Fiscal projections from 2022 onward assume no policy changes.
  - Disbursements under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility are reflected in the projections for 2021–24.
- Sweden:
  - Fiscal estimates for 2021 are based on preliminary information on the fall 2020 budget bill.
  - The impact of cyclical developments on the fiscal accounts is calculated using the 2014 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development elasticity to take into account output and employment gaps.
- Switzerland:
  - The authorities’ announced discretionary stimulus—as reflected in the fiscal projections for 2021 and 2022—is permitted within the context of the debt brake rule in the event of “exceptional circumstances.”
- Turkey:
  - The basis for the projections in the WEO and Fiscal Monitor is the IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some revenue and expenditure items that are included in the authorities’ headline balance.
- United Kingdom:
  - Fiscal projections are based on the latest GDP data published by the Office of National Statistics on February 11, 2022, and forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility from October 27, 2021.
  - Revenue projections are adjusted for differences between the IMF staff’s forecasts of macroeconomic variables (such as GDP growth and inflation) and the forecasts of these variables assumed in the authorities’ fiscal projections.
  - Projections assume that there is some additional fiscal consolidation relative to the policies announced to date starting in FY2023/24 with the goal of complying with the new fiscal rules announced at the time of the Spending Review on October 27, 2021, and to secure public debt sustainability.
  - The IMF staff’s data exclude public sector banks and the effect of transferring assets from the Royal Mail Pension Plan to the public sector in April 2012.
  - Real government consumption and investment are part of the real GDP path, which, according to the IMF staff, may or may not be the same as projected by the UK Office for Budget Responsibility.
  - Data are presented on a calendar year basis.
- United States:
  - Fiscal projections are based on the July 2021 Congressional Budget Office baseline, adjusted for the IMF staff’s policy and macroeconomic assumptions.
  - Projections incorporate the effects of the proposed American Jobs Plan; the American Families Plan; the Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan; the legislated American Rescue Plan; the Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act; the Families First Coronavirus Response Act; the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act; and the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act.
  - Fiscal projections are adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s forecasts for key macroeconomic and financial variables and different accounting treatment of financial sector support and of defined-benefit pension plans, and are converted to a general government basis.

### Monetary policy assumptions: framework and headline rate projections
- Monetary policy assumptions are based on the established policy framework in each country and generally imply a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle:
  - Official interest rates will increase when economic indicators suggest that inflation will rise above its acceptable rate or range.
  - Official interest rates will decrease when indicators suggest inflation will not exceed the acceptable rate or range, that output growth is below its potential rate, and that the margin of slack in the economy is significant.
- Short- and long-term interest rate assumptions (averages):
  - Three-month government bond yield:
    - United States: will average 0.9 percent in 2022 and 2.4 percent in 2023.
    - Euro area: will average –0.7 percent in 2022 and 0.0 in 2023.
    - Japan: will average 0.0 percent in 2022 and 0.1 percent in 2023.
  - 10-year government bond yield:
    - United States: will average 2.6 percent in 2022 and 3.4 percent in 2023.
    - Euro area: will average 0.4 percent in 2022 and 0.6 percent in 2023.
    - Japan: will average 0.3 percent in 2022 and 0.4 percent in 2023.

### Country-specific monetary policy notes
- Argentina: Monetary projections are consistent with the overall macroeconomic framework, the fiscal and financing plans, and the monetary and foreign exchange policies under the crawling peg regime.
- Australia: Monetary policy assumptions are based on the IMF staff’s analysis and the expected inflation path.
- Austria: Monetary growth projections are in proportion to nominal GDP growth.
- Brazil: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with the convergence of inflation toward the middle of the target range by the end of 2023.
- Canada:
  - Monetary policy assumptions reflect the latest decision by the Bank of Canada and its updated forecast.
  - The Bank of Canada has started raising interest rates and confirmed the increasing rate path into the future.
  - The monetary policy response in the current forecast reflects the new data and the war in Ukraine.
  - While the headline inflation is assumed to increase significantly, the policy response is muted due to the forward-looking nature of the monetary policy, reacting mostly to the core inflation at the monetary policy horizon.
- Chile: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with attaining the inflation target.
- China: The overall monetary policy stance was moderately tight in 2021, but it is expected to be moderately accommodative in 2022.
- Denmark: Monetary policy is to maintain the peg to the euro.
- Euro area: Monetary policy assumptions for euro area member countries are in line with market expectations.
- Greece: Broad money projections are based on monetary financial institution balance sheets and deposit flow assumptions.
- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: The IMF staff assumes that the currency board system will remain intact.
- India: Monetary policy projections are consistent with achieving the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation target over the medium term.
- Indonesia: Monetary policy assumptions are in line with inflation within the central bank’s target band over the medium term.
- Israel: Monetary policy assumptions are based on gradual normalization of monetary policy.
- Italy: IMF staff estimates and projections are informed by the actual outturn and policy plans by the Bank of Italy and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy stance forecast from the IMF’s euro area team.
- Japan: Monetary policy assumptions are in line with market expectations.
- Korea: The projections assume that the policy rate evolves in line with market expectations.
- Mexico: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with attaining the inflation target.
- The Netherlands: Monetary projections are based on the IMF staff’s estimated six-month euro London interbank offered rate projections.
- New Zealand: Monetary projections are based on the IMF staff’s analysis and expected inflation path.
- Portugal: Monetary policy assumptions are based on the country desk officers’ spreadsheets, given input projections for the real and fiscal sectors.
- Russia: Monetary projections assume that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is adopting a tight monetary policy stance.
- Saudi Arabia: Monetary policy projections are based on the continuation of the exchange rate peg to the US dollar.
- Singapore: Broad money is projected to grow in line with the projected growth in nominal GDP.
- South Africa: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with maintaining inflation within the 3–6 percent target band.
- Spain: Monetary growth projections are proportionate to nominal GDP growth.
- Sweden: Monetary projections are in line with Riksbank projections.
- Switzerland: The projections assume no change in the policy rate in 2022–23.
- Turkey: The baseline assumes that the monetary policy stance remains in line with market expectations.
- United Kingdom: The short-term interest rate path is based on market interest rate expectations.
- United States: The IMF staff expects the Federal Open Market Committee to continue to adjust the federal funds target rate in line with the broader macroeconomic outlook.

*International Monetary Fund | April 2022*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/april/english/statapp-intro.pdf_