## 1. Headline Inflation

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### Headline and Core Inflation—Chart observations
- Figure covers developments across 18 advanced economies and 17 emerging market and developing economies.
- Core inflation defined as change in prices for goods and services excluding food and energy (or closest available measure); for the euro area (and other European countries with available data) energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco are excluded.
- Gray bands depict the 10th to 90th percentiles of inflation across economies.
- Median country and series highlighted: United States, Euro area, Brazil.
- Time span shown in the figure: Jan. 2019 through Nov. 22 with intermediate ticks at Jul. 19, Jan. 20, Jul. 20, Jan. 21, Jul. 21, Jan. 22, Jul. 22.

### Regional developments and drivers
- Consumption and investment data for the third quarter show visible dynamism, partly reflecting government support of about 1.2 percent of European Union GDP (net budgetary cost) to households and firms hit by the energy crisis.
- Gas prices have declined by more than expected amid higher non-Russian pipeline and liquefied natural gas flows, compression of demand for gas, and a warmer-than-usual winter.
- The boost from reopening appears to be fading: high-frequency indicators for the fourth quarter suggest that the manufacturing and services sectors are contracting; consumer confidence and business sentiment have worsened.
- With inflation at about 10 percent or above in several euro area countries and the United Kingdom, household budgets remain stretched.
- The accelerated pace of rate increases by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank is tightening financial conditions and cooling demand in the housing sector and beyond.

### Global growth outlook and trade
- Global growth, estimated at 3.4 percent in 2022, is projected to fall to 2.9 percent in 2023 before rising to 3.1 percent in 2024.
- Compared with the October forecast, the estimate for 2022 and the forecast for 2023 are both higher by about 0.2 percentage point.
- Negative growth in global GDP or global GDP per capita is not expected.
- Global growth projected for 2023 and 2024 is below the historical (2000–19) annual average of 3.8 percent.
- World trade growth is expected to decline in 2023 to 2.4 percent before rising to 3.4 percent in 2024.

### Forecast assumptions (selected)
- In 2023, oil prices are projected to fall by about 16 percent.
- Nonfuel commodity prices are expected to fall by, on average, 6.3 percent.
- Global interest rate assumptions are revised up, reflecting intensified actual and signaled policy tightening by major central banks since October.

### Advanced economies—projections and notes
- Aggregate: Growth is projected to decline from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.2 percent in 2023 before rising to 1.4 percent in 2024, with a downward revision of 0.2 percentage point for 2024.
- About 90 percent of advanced economies are projected to see a decline in growth in 2023.
- United States:
  - Growth projected: 2.0 percent in 2022; 1.4 percent in 2023; 1.0 percent in 2024.
  - There is a 0.4 percentage point upward revision for annual growth in 2023, and a 0.2 percentage point downward revision for 2024.
  - Federal Reserve rate peak of about 5.1 percent in 2023 is factored into the outlook.
- Euro area:
  - Growth projected to bottom out at 0.7 percent in 2023 before rising to 1.6 percent in 2024.
  - The 0.2 percentage point upward revision to the forecast for 2023 reflects faster rate hikes, eroding real incomes, carryover from the 2022 outturn, lower wholesale energy prices, and additional fiscal purchasing power support in the form of energy price controls and cash transfers.
- United Kingdom:
  - Growth projected to be –0.6 percent in 2023, a 0.9 percentage point downward revision from October.
  - Revision reflects tighter fiscal and monetary policies and financial conditions and still-high energy retail prices weighing on household budgets.
- Japan:
  - Growth projected to rise to 1.8 percent in 2023 with continued monetary and fiscal policy support.
  - Growth in 2024 expected to decline to 0.9 percent as the effects of past stimulus dissipate.

### Emerging market and developing economies—projections and notes
- Aggregate: Growth projected to rise from 3.9 percent in 2022 to 4.0 percent in 2023 and 4.2 percent in 2024, with an upward revision of 0.3 percentage point for 2023 and a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point for 2024.
- About half of emerging market and developing economies have lower growth in 2023 than in 2022.
- Emerging and developing Asia:
  - Growth expected to rise in 2023 and 2024 to 5.3 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively, after a slowdown in 2022 to 4.3 percent attributable to China’s economy.
  - China: 2022 growth downgraded by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0 percent; projected to rise to 5.2 percent in 2023 and fall to 4.5 percent in 2024 before settling below 4 percent over the medium term.
  - India: Growth set to decline from 6.8 percent in 2022 to 6.1 percent in 2023 before picking up to 6.8 percent in 2024.
  - ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand): Projected to slow to 4.3 percent in 2023 and then pick up to 4.7 percent in 2024.
- Emerging and developing Europe:
  - Projected to have bottomed out in 2022 at 0.7 percent and revised up for 2023 by 0.9 percentage point to 1.5 percent.
  - Revision reflects a smaller contraction in Russia in 2022 (estimated at –2.2 percent compared with a predicted –3.4 percent) followed by modestly positive growth in 2023.
  - At the current oil price cap level of the Group of Seven, Russian crude oil export volumes are not expected to be significantly affected.
- Latin America and the Caribbean:
  - Growth projected to decline from 3.9 percent in 2022 to 1.8 percent in 2023, with an upward revision for 2023 of 0.1 percentage point since October.
  - Forecast revisions include upgrades of 0.2 percentage point for Brazil and 0.5 percentage point for Mexico.
  - Growth in the region projected to rise to 2.1 percent in 2024, with a downward revision of 0.3 percentage point.
- Middle East and Central Asia:
  - Growth projected to decline from 5.3 percent in 2022 to [text truncated in source].

### Global growth and regional revisions (selected exact figures)
- World output: 6.2 (2021), 3.4 (2022), 2.9 (2023), 3.1 (2024).
- Difference from October 2022 WEO: 2023: 0.2; 2024: –0.1.
- Saudi Arabia: 3.2 (2021), 8.7 (2022), 2.6 (2023), 3.4 (2024); revision for 2023: –1.1 percentage points.
- Sub-Saharan Africa: 4.7 (2021), 3.8 (2022), 3.8 (2023), 4.1 (2024). Small upward revision for 2023: 0.1 percentage point.
- South Africa: 4.9 (2021), 2.6 (2022), 1.2 (2023), 1.3 (2024).
- Emerging Market and Developing Economies: 6.7 (2021), 3.9 (2022), 4.0 (2023), 4.2 (2024).

### Inflation trends and projections
- Global inflation (annual average): 8.8 percent (2022) → 6.6 percent (2023) → 4.3 percent (2024); pre-pandemic (2017–19) levels ≈ 3.5 percent.
- Core (underlying) inflation: 6.9 percent (Q4 2022, year over year) → 4.5 percent (Q4 2023).
- By 2024, annual average headline and core inflation will still be above pre-pandemic levels in 82 percent and 86 percent of economies, respectively.
- Advanced economies: 3.1 (2021), 7.3 (2022), 4.6 (2023), 2.6 (2024).
- Emerging market and developing economies: 5.9 (2021), 9.9 (2022), 8.1 (2023), 5.5 (2024).
- Low-income developing countries: inflation projected to moderate from 14.2 percent (2022) to 8.6 percent (2024).
- Selected country inflation notes: euro area 5.7 (2023) and 3.3 (2024); Japan 2.8 (2023) and 2.0 (2024); United States 4.0 (2023) and 2.2 (2024).

### Key sectoral and commodity projections
- World Trade Volume (goods and services): 10.4 (2021), 5.4 (2022), 2.4 (2023), 3.4 (2024).
- Oil (price changes): 65.8 (2021), 39.8 (2022), –16.2 (2023), –7.1 (2024).
- Average assumed price of oil in US dollars a barrel (based on futures markets as of November 29, 2022): $81.13 in 2023 and $75.36 in 2024.
- Nonfuel (average based on world commodity import weights): 26.4 (2021), 7.0 (2022), –6.3 (2023), –0.4 (2024).

### Balance of risks: upside scenarios
- Pent-up demand boost: excess private savings from pandemic fiscal support, still-tight labor markets, and solid wage growth could boost consumption—particularly of services, including tourism—but would increase inflation further.
- Faster disinflation: easing labor market pressures and a sharp fall in goods prices as consumers shift back to services could cool wage inflation and imply a “softer” landing with less monetary tightening.
- Upside scenario possibility: lower-than-expected inflation and less monetary tightening.

### Balance of risks: downside scenarios
- China’s recovery stalling: low population immunity, insufficient hospital capacity outside major urban areas, and a deepening real estate crisis with risks of widespread developer defaults and financial sector instability.
- War in Ukraine escalating: risks to Europe and lower-income countries from energy and food price spikes, difficulties refilling gas storage, and potential increase in food prices from a failed extension of the Black Sea grain initiative.
- Debt distress: about 15 percent of low-income countries estimated to be in debt distress; an additional 45 percent at high risk of debt distress; about 25 percent of emerging market economies also at high risk.
- Inflation persisting: persistent labor market tightness, higher-than-expected oil, gas, and food prices, and stronger wage growth could de-anchor inflation expectations and require even tighter monetary policy.
- Sudden financial market repricing: premature easing or unfavorable inflation data releases could trigger asset repricing, increased volatility, strained liquidity, and impaired market functioning.
- Geopolitical fragmentation: restrictions on cross-border movements of capital, workers, and international payments could hamper multilateral cooperation and raise short-term costs.

### Policy priorities and recommendations
- Securing global disinflation:
  - Raise real policy rates and keep them above neutral until underlying inflation is clearly declining.
  - Clear central bank communication and appropriate reactions to data to keep inflation expectations anchored.
  - Unwind central banks’ balance sheets carefully amid market liquidity risks.
  - Gradual and steady fiscal tightening to cool demand and limit the burden on monetary policy.
  - In countries with output below potential and inflation in check, maintain monetary and fiscal accommodation.
- Containing the reemergence of COVID-19:
  - Coordinate to boost vaccination and medicine access where coverage remains low.
  - Deploy pandemic preparedness measures, including sequencing and sharing data.
  - In China, focus vaccination on vulnerable groups and maintain high booster and antiviral coverage.
- Ensuring financial stability:
  - Use macroprudential tools to tackle pockets of vulnerability; monitor housing sectors and conduct stress tests where house prices have increased significantly.
  - In China, central government action to resolve the property crisis, protect presale homebuyers, and restructure troubled developers.
  - Address data and supervisory gaps in the nonbank financial sector; introduce common standards and reinforce oversight of crypto assets.
- Restoring debt sustainability:
  - Where debt is unsustainable, implement restructuring or reprofiling early as part of a package including fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing supply-side reforms.
- Supporting the vulnerable:
  - Replace temporary broad-based measures with targeted approaches (social safety nets, cash transfers, transfers through electricity companies based on past energy consumption).
  - Keep subsidies temporary and offset by revenue-generating measures, including one-time solidarity taxes on high-income households and companies, where appropriate.
- Reinforcing supply:
  - Address structural factors impeding growth: market power, rent seeking, rigid regulation and planning, and inefficient education.
  - Push investment along the supply chain of green energy technologies to bolster energy security and advance the green transition.
- Strengthening multilateral cooperation:
  - Restrain the pandemic through global coordination on vaccine and treatment distribution and public support for new vaccine technologies.
  - Address debt distress by strengthening mechanisms (including the Group of Twenty’s Common Framework) and involving non–Paris Club and private creditors.
  - Strengthen global trade by rolling back export restrictions, upgrading WTO rules, concluding new WTO-based agreements, and restoring the WTO dispute settlement system.
  - Use the global financial safety net proactively, including IMF precautionary arrangements and channeling aid to low-income countries facing shocks.
  - Coordinate on carbon pricing or equivalent policies and build resilience to climate shocks through aid to vulnerable countries.

_Italic source: WEO Update © 2023 • ISBN: 979-8-40023-224-4 (text extracted from the IMF World Economic Outlook Update)_

### 1. Headline Inflation

### 1. Headline Inflation

### Headline and Core Inflation—Chart observations
- The figure shows developments in headline and core inflation across 18 advanced economies and 17 emerging market and developing economies.
- Core inflation is the change in prices for goods and services, but excluding those for food and energy (or the closest available measure). For the euro area (and other European countries for which the data are available), energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco are excluded.
- The gray bands depict the 10th to 90th percentiles of inflation across economies.
- Median country and series highlighted: United States, Euro area, Brazil.
- Time span shown in the figure: Jan. 2019 through Nov. 22 with intermediate ticks at Jul. 19, Jan. 20, Jul. 20, Jan. 21, Jul. 21, Jan. 22, Jul. 22.

### Regional developments and drivers
- Consumption and investment data for the third quarter show visible dynamism, partly reflecting government support of about 1.2 percent of European Union GDP (net budgetary cost) to households and firms hit by the energy crisis.
- Gas prices have declined by more than expected amid higher non-Russian pipeline and liquefied natural gas flows, compression of demand for gas, and a warmer-than-usual winter.
- The boost from reopening appears to be fading: high-frequency indicators for the fourth quarter suggest that the manufacturing and services sectors are contracting; consumer confidence and business sentiment have worsened.
- With inflation at about 10 percent or above in several euro area countries and the United Kingdom, household budgets remain stretched.
- The accelerated pace of rate increases by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank is tightening financial conditions and cooling demand in the housing sector and beyond.

### Global growth outlook and trade
- Global growth, estimated at 3.4 percent in 2022, is projected to fall to 2.9 percent in 2023 before rising to 3.1 percent in 2024.
- Compared with the October forecast, the estimate for 2022 and the forecast for 2023 are both higher by about 0.2 percentage point.
- Negative growth in global GDP or global GDP per capita is not expected.
- Global growth projected for 2023 and 2024 is below the historical (2000–19) annual average of 3.8 percent.
- World trade growth is expected to decline in 2023 to 2.4 percent before rising to 3.4 percent in 2024.

### Forecast assumptions (selected)
- In 2023, oil prices are projected to fall by about 16 percent.
- Nonfuel commodity prices are expected to fall by, on average, 6.3 percent.
- Global interest rate assumptions are revised up, reflecting intensified actual and signaled policy tightening by major central banks since October.

### Advanced economies—projections and notes
- Aggregate: Growth is projected to decline from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.2 percent in 2023 before rising to 1.4 percent in 2024, with a downward revision of 0.2 percentage point for 2024.
- About 90 percent of advanced economies are projected to see a decline in growth in 2023.
- United States:
  - Growth projected: 2.0 percent in 2022; 1.4 percent in 2023; 1.0 percent in 2024.
  - There is a 0.4 percentage point upward revision for annual growth in 2023, and a 0.2 percentage point downward revision for 2024.
  - Federal Reserve rate peak of about 5.1 percent in 2023 is factored into the outlook.
- Euro area:
  - Growth projected to bottom out at 0.7 percent in 2023 before rising to 1.6 percent in 2024.
  - The 0.2 percentage point upward revision to the forecast for 2023 reflects faster rate hikes, eroding real incomes, carryover from the 2022 outturn, lower wholesale energy prices, and additional fiscal purchasing power support in the form of energy price controls and cash transfers.
- United Kingdom:
  - Growth projected to be –0.6 percent in 2023, a 0.9 percentage point downward revision from October.
  - Revision reflects tighter fiscal and monetary policies and financial conditions and still-high energy retail prices weighing on household budgets.
- Japan:
  - Growth projected to rise to 1.8 percent in 2023 with continued monetary and fiscal policy support.
  - Growth in 2024 expected to decline to 0.9 percent as the effects of past stimulus dissipate.

### Emerging market and developing economies—projections and notes
- Aggregate: Growth projected to rise from 3.9 percent in 2022 to 4.0 percent in 2023 and 4.2 percent in 2024, with an upward revision of 0.3 percentage point for 2023 and a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point for 2024.
- About half of emerging market and developing economies have lower growth in 2023 than in 2022.
- Emerging and developing Asia:
  - Growth expected to rise in 2023 and 2024 to 5.3 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively, after a slowdown in 2022 to 4.3 percent attributable to China’s economy.
  - China: 2022 growth downgraded by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0 percent; projected to rise to 5.2 percent in 2023 and fall to 4.5 percent in 2024 before settling below 4 percent over the medium term.
  - India: Growth set to decline from 6.8 percent in 2022 to 6.1 percent in 2023 before picking up to 6.8 percent in 2024.
  - ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand): Projected to slow to 4.3 percent in 2023 and then pick up to 4.7 percent in 2024.
- Emerging and developing Europe:
  - Projected to have bottomed out in 2022 at 0.7 percent and revised up for 2023 by 0.9 percentage point to 1.5 percent.
  - Revision reflects a smaller contraction in Russia in 2022 (estimated at –2.2 percent compared with a predicted –3.4 percent) followed by modestly positive growth in 2023.
  - At the current oil price cap level of the Group of Seven, Russian crude oil export volumes are not expected to be significantly affected.
- Latin America and the Caribbean:
  - Growth projected to decline from 3.9 percent in 2022 to 1.8 percent in 2023, with an upward revision for 2023 of 0.1 percentage point since October.
  - Forecast revisions include upgrades of 0.2 percentage point for Brazil and 0.5 percentage point for Mexico.
  - Growth in the region projected to rise to 2.1 percent in 2024, with a downward revision of 0.3 percentage point.
- Middle East and Central Asia:
  - Growth projected to decline from 5.3 percent in 2022 to [text truncated in source].

*Source: text - 1. Headline Inflation (https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/update/january/english/text.pdf)*

### 3.2 percent in 2023, with a downward revision of 0.4 percentage point since October, mainly

### 3.2 percent in 2023, with a downward revision of 0.4 percentage point since October, mainly

### Global growth and regional revisions
- World output: 6.2 (2021), 3.4 (2022), 2.9 (2023), 3.1 (2024).
- Difference from October 2022 WEO: 2023: 0.2; 2024: –0.1.
- Saudi Arabia: 3.2 (2021), 8.7 (2022), 2.6 (2023), 3.4 (2024); revision for 2023: –1.1 percentage points. Downgrade reflects mainly lower oil production in line with an agreement through OPEC+; non-oil growth is expected to remain robust.
- Sub-Saharan Africa: 4.7 (2021), 3.8 (2022), 3.8 (2023), 4.1 (2024). Small upward revision for 2023: 0.1 percentage point (Nigeria’s rising growth in 2023 due to measures to address insecurity issues in the oil sector).
- South Africa: 4.9 (2021), 2.6 (2022), 1.2 (2023), 1.3 (2024); projected growth more than halves in 2023 to 1.2 percent, reflecting weaker external demand, power shortages, and structural constraints.
- Emerging Market and Developing Economies: 6.7 (2021), 3.9 (2022), 4.0 (2023), 4.2 (2024).

### Inflation trends and projections
- Global inflation (annual average): 8.8 percent (2022) → 6.6 percent (2023) → 4.3 percent (2024); pre-pandemic (2017–19) levels ≈ 3.5 percent.
- Core (underlying) inflation: 6.9 percent (Q4 2022, year over year) → 4.5 percent (Q4 2023).
- By 2024, annual average headline and core inflation will still be above pre-pandemic levels in 82 percent and 86 percent of economies, respectively.
- Advanced economies: 3.1 (2021), 7.3 (2022), 4.6 (2023), 2.6 (2024).
- Emerging market and developing economies: 5.9 (2021), 9.9 (2022), 8.1 (2023), 5.5 (2024).
- Low-income developing countries: inflation projected to moderate from 14.2 percent (2022) to 8.6 percent (2024).
- Selected country inflation notes: euro area 5.7 (2023) and 3.3 (2024); Japan 2.8 (2023) and 2.0 (2024); United States 4.0 (2023) and 2.2 (2024).

### Key sectoral and commodity projections
- World Trade Volume (goods and services): 10.4 (2021), 5.4 (2022), 2.4 (2023), 3.4 (2024).
- Oil (price changes): 65.8 (2021), 39.8 (2022), –16.2 (2023), –7.1 (2024). Average assumed price of oil in US dollars a barrel (based on futures markets as of November 29, 2022): $81.13 in 2023 and $75.36 in 2024.
- Nonfuel (average based on world commodity import weights): 26.4 (2021), 7.0 (2022), –6.3 (2023), –0.4 (2024).

### Balance of risks: upside scenarios
- Pent-up demand boost: excess private savings from pandemic fiscal support, still-tight labor markets, and solid wage growth could boost consumption—particularly of services, including tourism—but would increase inflation further.
- Faster disinflation: easing labor market pressures and a sharp fall in goods prices as consumers shift back to services could cool wage inflation and imply a “softer” landing with less monetary tightening.
- Upside scenario possibility: lower-than-expected inflation and less monetary tightening.

### Balance of risks: downside scenarios
- China’s recovery stalling: low population immunity, insufficient hospital capacity outside major urban areas, and a deepening real estate crisis with risks of widespread developer defaults and financial sector instability.
- War in Ukraine escalating: risks to Europe and lower-income countries from energy and food price spikes, difficulties refilling gas storage, and potential increase in food prices from a failed extension of the Black Sea grain initiative.
- Debt distress: about 15 percent of low-income countries estimated to be in debt distress; an additional 45 percent at high risk of debt distress; about 25 percent of emerging market economies also at high risk.
- Inflation persisting: persistent labor market tightness, higher-than-expected oil, gas, and food prices, and stronger wage growth could de-anchor inflation expectations and require even tighter monetary policy.
- Sudden financial market repricing: premature easing or unfavorable inflation data releases could trigger asset repricing, increased volatility, strained liquidity, and impaired market functioning.
- Geopolitical fragmentation: restrictions on cross-border movements of capital, workers, and international payments could hamper multilateral cooperation and raise short-term costs.

### Policy priorities and recommendations
- Securing global disinflation:
  - Raise real policy rates and keep them above neutral until underlying inflation is clearly declining.
  - Clear central bank communication and appropriate reactions to data to keep inflation expectations anchored.
  - Unwind central banks’ balance sheets carefully amid market liquidity risks.
  - Gradual and steady fiscal tightening to cool demand and limit the burden on monetary policy.
  - In countries with output below potential and inflation in check, maintain monetary and fiscal accommodation.
- Containing the reemergence of COVID-19:
  - Coordinate to boost vaccination and medicine access where coverage remains low.
  - Deploy pandemic preparedness measures, including sequencing and sharing data.
  - In China, focus vaccination on vulnerable groups and maintain high booster and antiviral coverage.
- Ensuring financial stability:
  - Use macroprudential tools to tackle pockets of vulnerability; monitor housing sectors and conduct stress tests where house prices have increased significantly.
  - In China, central government action to resolve the property crisis, protect presale homebuyers, and restructure troubled developers.
  - Address data and supervisory gaps in the nonbank financial sector; introduce common standards and reinforce oversight of crypto assets.
- Restoring debt sustainability:
  - Where debt is unsustainable, implement restructuring or reprofiling early as part of a package including fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing supply-side reforms.
- Supporting the vulnerable:
  - Replace temporary broad-based measures with targeted approaches (social safety nets, cash transfers, transfers through electricity companies based on past energy consumption).
  - Keep subsidies temporary and offset by revenue-generating measures, including one-time solidarity taxes on high-income households and companies, where appropriate.
- Reinforcing supply:
  - Address structural factors impeding growth: market power, rent seeking, rigid regulation and planning, and inefficient education.
  - Push investment along the supply chain of green energy technologies to bolster energy security and advance the green transition.
- Strengthening multilateral cooperation:
  - Restrain the pandemic through global coordination on vaccine and treatment distribution and public support for new vaccine technologies.
  - Address debt distress by strengthening mechanisms (including the Group of Twenty’s Common Framework) and involving non–Paris Club and private creditors.
  - Strengthen global trade by rolling back export restrictions, upgrading WTO rules, concluding new WTO-based agreements, and restoring the WTO dispute settlement system.
  - Use the global financial safety net proactively, including IMF precautionary arrangements and channeling aid to low-income countries facing shocks.
  - Coordinate on carbon pricing or equivalent policies and build resilience to climate shocks through aid to vulnerable countries.

_Italic source: WEO Update © 2023 • ISBN: 979-8-40023-224-4 (text extracted from the IMF World Economic Outlook Update)_

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2023/update/january/english/text.pdf_