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### Exchange rate and oil price assumptions
- Average US dollar–special drawing right conversion rates: 1.351 (2025) and 1.373 (2026).
- US dollar–euro conversion rates: 1.130 (2025) and 1.167 (2026).
- Yen–US dollar conversion rates: 147.7 (2025) and 145.3 (2026).
- Assumed price of oil: $68.92 a barrel (2025) and $65.84 a barrel (2026).

### Interest rate assumptions
- Three-month government bond yields:
  - United States: 4.3 percent (2025) and 3.7 percent (2026).
  - Euro area: 2.0 percent (2025) and 2.1 percent (2026).
  - Japan: 0.4 percent (2025) and 0.8 percent (2026).
- 10-year government bond yields:
  - United States: 4.3 percent (2025) and 4.1 percent (2026).
  - Euro area: 2.5 percent (2025) and 2.6 percent (2026).
  - Japan: 1.5 percent (2025) and 1.7 percent (2026).

### Policy and projection framing
- National authorities’ established policies are assumed to be maintained.
- Box A1 (referenced in source) describes more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected economies.

### What’s New
- Data for Liechtenstein have been added to the database and are included in the advanced economies group composites.

### Data and methodological conventions
- Data and projections for 197 economies form the statistical basis of the WEO database.
- The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and regional departments, with regional departments regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.
- Most countries’ macroeconomic data as presented in the WEO conform broadly to the 2008 version of the System of National Accounts (SNA 2008).
- IMF sector statistical standards aligned with SNA 2008 mentioned: BPM6, the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide, and the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014).
- WEO estimates are only partly adapted to the most recent versions of these manuals; full concordance depends on revised country data from national statistical compilers.
- Fiscal gross and net debt data are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates; efforts are made to align with GFSM 2014 definitions but deviations can occur because of data limitations or country circumstances.
- Changes in data sources or instrument coverage can give rise to revisions that are sometimes substantial; metadata for the online WEO database provide clarification on deviations.

### Composite construction and aggregation conventions
- Composite data for country groups are either sums or weighted averages of individual country data.
- Multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change unless noted otherwise.
- Arithmetically weighted averages used for all data for the emerging market and developing economies group—except:
  - Inflation and money growth use geometric averages.
- Weighting conventions:
  - Exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates: weighted by GDP converted to US dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.
  - Other domestic economy data (growth rates or ratios): weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total world or group GDP.
- Aggregation of inflation:
  - Advanced economies (and subgroups): annual rates are simple percent changes from the previous years.
  - World inflation and emerging market and developing economies (and subgroups): annual rates are based on logarithmic differences.
- Real GDP per capita in purchasing-power-parity terms: sums of individual country data after conversion to international dollars.
- Euro area composites are corrected for reporting discrepancies in transactions within the area unless noted otherwise.
- Composites for fiscal data: sums of individual country data after conversion to US dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated.
- Composite unemployment rates and employment growth: weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.
- External sector composites: sums of individual country data after conversion to US dollars at average market exchange rates for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than US dollars.
- Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices: arithmetic averages of percent changes for individual countries weighted by the US dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).
- Group composites are computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group weights is represented.
- Data refer to calendar years except for a few countries that use fiscal years; Table F (referenced) lists exceptional reporting periods.
- For some countries, figures for 2024 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns; Table G (referenced) lists the date of the latest actual outturns for indicators.

### Country notes (selected entries)
- Afghanistan:
  - Data for 2021–24 reported for selected indicators, with estimates for fiscal data.
  - GDP growth for 2024 is an estimate.
  - Projections for 2025–30 are omitted because IMF has paused engagement; reported GDP growth rate for solar year 2021 is –20.7 percent.
- Algeria:
  - Total government expenditure and net lending/borrowing include net lending by the government reflecting support to the pension system and other public sector entities.
- Argentina:
  - Official national CPI starts in December 2016; WEO does not report average CPI inflation for 2014–16 and end-of-period inflation for 2015–16.
  - Labor market data discontinued starting Q4 2015; new series available starting Q2 2016.
- Bolivia:
  - Projections for 2026–30 omitted owing to significant uncertainty.
- Costa Rica:
  - Central government definition expanded as of January 1, 2021, to include 51 public entities in accordance with Law 9524; data back to 2019 adjusted for comparability.
- Dominican Republic:
  - Fiscal series coverage details provided (consolidated public sector vs central government distinctions).
- Ecuador:
  - Fiscal projections for 2025–30 excluded from publication because of ongoing program discussions.
- Eritrea:
  - Data and projections for 2020–30 excluded because of constraints in data reporting.
- India:
  - Real GDP growth rates calculated in accordance with national accounts with base year 2011/12.
- Iran:
  - Nominal GDP in US dollars computed using official exchange rate up to 2017; from 2018 onward NIMA exchange rate is used.
- Israel:
  - Projections subject to heightened uncertainty owing to the conflict in the region and may undergo revisions.
- Lebanon:
  - Fiscal and national accounts data for 2022–24, and debt data for 2023–24, are IMF staff estimates; estimates and projections for 2025–30 omitted owing to unusually high uncertainty.
- Libya:
  - Actual data and projections are subject to high uncertainty due to frequent data revisions; fiscal and debt data for 2024 are IMF staff estimates.
- Nigeria:
  - National accounts rebased with 2019 as new base year; rebasing resulted in upward revision of nominal GDP by 40.8 percent in 2019.
- Pakistan:
  - Projections do not yet reflect the impact of flooding in summer 2025, impact still being assessed.
- Sierra Leone:
  - Local currency data are expressed in the old leone for the October 2025 WEO despite redenomination on July 1, 2022.
- Sri Lanka:
  - Data and projections for 2025–30 excluded owing to ongoing discussions on restructuring of sovereign debt.
- Sudan:
  - Projections reflect IMF staff analysis assuming ongoing conflict terminates by end-2025 and reengagement and reconstruction commence shortly thereafter; data for 2011 exclude South Sudan after July 9; data for 2012 onward pertain to the current Sudan.
- Syria:
  - Data excluded from 2011 onward because of the uncertain political situation.
- Timor-Leste:
  - Published real GDP refers to non-oil real GDP, while published nominal GDP refers to total nominal GDP.
- Turkmenistan:
  - Real GDP data are IMF staff estimates compiled in line with SNA using official estimates, UN and World Bank databases; fiscal balance estimates/projections exclude receipts from domestic bond issuances and privatization operations in line with GFSM 2014.
- Ukraine:
  - Revised national accounts data available for 2000 onward and exclude Crimea and Sevastopol from 2010 onward.
- Uruguay:
  - Authorities began reporting national accounts according to SNA 2008 with base year 2016; new series begin in 2016.
  - Public pension transfers under Law 19,590 of 2017 affected data for 2018–22.

### Fiscal-data series and country-specific adjustments
- Reported sequence for a fiscal series: 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018, 1.0 percent of GDP in 2019, 0.6 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.3 percent of GDP in 2021, 0.1 percent of GDP in 2022, and 0 thereafter.
- Disclaimer: the disclaimer about the public pension system applies only to the revenues and net lending/borrowing series.
- Uruguay:
  - Coverage changed from consolidated public sector to nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 WEO.
  - Nonfinancial public sector coverage includes the central government, local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado.
  - Under the narrower fiscal perimeter (which excludes the central bank), assets and liabilities held by the nonfinancial public sector for which the counterpart is the central bank are not netted out in debt figures.
  - Capitalization bonds issued in the past by the government to the central bank are now part of the nonfinancial public sector debt.
  - Historical data were revised accordingly.
- Venezuela:
  - Projecting the outlook is rendered difficult by lack of discussions with the authorities (the most recent Article IV consultation took place in 2004), incomplete metadata, and difficulties reconciling reported indicators with economic developments.
  - Fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government; social security; FOGADE; and a reduced set of public enterprises, including Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A.
  - Following methodological upgrades to achieve a more robust nominal GDP, historical data and indicators expressed as a percentage of GDP have been revised from 2012 onward.
  - For most indicators, data for 2018–24 are IMF staff estimates.
  - The effects of hyperinflation, paucity of reported data, and uncertainty mean IMF staff estimates and projections should be interpreted with caution.
  - Venezuela’s consumer prices are excluded from all WEO group composites.
- West Bank and Gaza:
  - Estimates and projections for 2025–30 are excluded from publication owing to the unusually high degree of uncertainty.
  - Annual data for the unemployment rate are available up to 2022.
- Zimbabwe:
  - Authorities redenominated national accounts statistics following introduction on April 5, 2024, of a new national currency, the Zimbabwe gold, replacing the Zimbabwe dollar.
  - The use of the Zimbabwe dollar ceased on April 30, 2024.

### Classification of economies — composition and aggregates
- The WEO divides the world into two major groups: advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (classification is not based on strict criteria and has evolved over time).
- Counts and aggregate shares (2024):
  - Advanced Economies: 42 economies.
  - Emerging Market and Developing Economies: 155 economies.
  - Advanced Economies — shares in world aggregates (percent of total): GDP 39.6 percent; Exports of goods and services 61.0 percent; Population 13.8 percent.
  - Emerging Market and Developing Economies — shares in world aggregates (percent of total): GDP 60.4 percent; Exports of goods and services 39.0 percent; Population 86.2 percent.
- Group definitions and analytical criteria:
  - Advanced economies list and subgroupings (major advanced economies and euro area) are specified in the appendix (Table B, Table C).
  - Emerging Market and Developing Economies (155) comprises all those not classified as advanced economies and are broken down by region: emerging and developing Asia; emerging and developing Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; Middle East and Central Asia; and sub-Saharan Africa.
  - Analytical groups distinguish export-earnings source (Fuel, Nonfuel, Of which, Primary Products) using SITC classifications and require that the main source exceed 50 percent of total exports on average between 2020 and 2024.
  - Financial and income criteria classify economies as net creditor or net debtor (net debtors: latest net international investment position < 0 or cumulative current account balance accumulations from 1972 to 2024 negative), with further differentiation by experience with debt servicing.
  - Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs), Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs), and Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies (EMMIEs) are separately identified; LIDC threshold is based on $2,700 in 2017 (World Bank Atlas method) and updated following new information in early 2024.
- Note on omissions:
  - Some economies are omitted from classification composites where data are insufficient (examples: West Bank and Gaza omitted from some composites; Syria omitted from group composites across all analytical and Other Groups because of insufficient data).

### Key tabulated summaries and illustrative figures
- Table A (classification aggregates, 2024): group counts and shares summarized above.
- Analytical group highlights (aggregates shown in Table A):
  - By source of export earnings: Fuel group count 26; Nonfuel group count 127; Of which, Primary Products count 35.
  - By external financing source: Net Debtor Economies count 117.
  - Other group counts: Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies count 96; Low-Income Developing Countries count 58; Heavily Indebted Poor Countries count 39.
- Exceptional reporting periods, key data documentation, and country-by-country metadata are provided in the appendix tables (national accounts base years, CPI data vintage, government finance subsector coverage, accounting practice, balance of payments data vintage).

### Fiscal policy assumptions underlying projections (Box A1)
- General approach:
  - Short-term fiscal policy assumptions normally based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between national authorities and IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns.
  - When no official budget announced, projections incorporate policy measures judged likely to be implemented.
  - Medium-term fiscal projections are based on a judgment about policies’ most likely path.
  - If IMF staff has insufficient information to assess authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed unless indicated otherwise.
- Selected country-specific notes and assumptions:
  - Argentina: Projections based on available information on budget outturn, budget plans, and IMF-supported program targets for the federal government; interest bill excludes interest payments of zero-coupon bonds issued prior to September 2025, which are recorded below the line.
  - Australia: Projections based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the FY2025/26 Commonwealth budget and FY2024/25 state/territory budgets, and IMF staff estimates.
  - Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong SAR, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Portugal, Puerto Rico: projections informed by the authorities’ budgets/medium-term plans, adjusted where necessary to reflect IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and judgment (specific country-level adjustments described in the appendix).
  - India: General government data cover central and state governments; state government data incorporated with a lag up to two years; starting with FY2020/21, expenditure includes the off-budget component of food subsidies consistent with revised treatment in the budget; FY2020/21 IMF staff adjusted expenditure to remove payments for FY2019/20 food subsidies.
  - Russia: Fiscal rule suspended in March 2022; 2019 rule used $40 per barrel benchmark oil price; 2023–25 budget used a modified rule with benchmark oil and gas revenues fixed in rubles at Rub 8 trillion; late September 2023 Ministry of Finance proposed reverting to earlier fiscal rule from 2024 with a benchmark oil price set at $60 a barrel; new rule effective in the 2025 budget allows higher oil and gas revenues to be spent while targeting a smaller primary structural deficit.
  - Saudi Arabia: Baseline fiscal projections based primarily on government policies as outlined in the 2025 budget and recent official announcements; export oil revenues based on WEO baseline oil price assumptions and IMF staff understanding of OPEC+ production adjustments and those unilaterally announced by Saudi Arabia.
  - Israel: Projections subject to significant risks given unpredictability of the current conflict and its impact on the economy; fiscal projections are for the general government and take the 2025 budget into account.
  - Other country-specific fiscal assumptions and methodological notes are documented in Box A1 and the related appendix tables.

### Fiscal assumptions — general and country notes (FY2025)
- FY2025 projections are based on the initial budget of February 18, 2025.
- Nontax revenue excludes transactions in financial assets and liabilities, as they involve primarily revenues associated with the realized exchange rate valuation gains from the holding of foreign currency deposits, sale of assets, and conceptually similar items.
- Eskom debt relief is treated as a capital transfer above-the-line item.
- Spain: Figures for 2021–28 reflect disbursements of grants and loans under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility.
- Sweden: Fiscal estimates for 2024 are based on the authorities’ budget bill and have been updated with the authorities’ latest interim forecast. The impact of cyclical developments on the fiscal accounts is calculated using the 2014 OECD study to take into account output gaps.
- Switzerland: The projections assume that fiscal policy is adjusted as necessary to keep fiscal balances in line with the requirements of Switzerland’s fiscal rules.
- Türkiye: The basis for the projections is the IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some revenue and expenditure items that are included in the authorities’ headline balance.
- United Kingdom: Fiscal projections are based on the March 2025 forecast of the Office for Budget Responsibility and the January 2025 release on public sector finances from the Office for National Statistics. The IMF staff’s projections take the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast as a reference and overlay adjustments for differences in assumptions. Data are presented on a calendar year basis.
- United States: Fiscal projections are based on the January 2025 Congressional Budget Office baseline, adjusted for the IMF staff’s policy and macroeconomic assumptions. Projections incorporate the effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed on July 4, 2025.
- South Africa: Fiscal assumptions are informed by the 2025 budget.

### Monetary policy assumptions — general framework
- Monetary policy assumptions are based on the established policy framework in each economy.
- In most cases, this implies a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle: Official interest rates will increase when economic indicators suggest that inflation will rise above its acceptable rate or range; they will decrease when indicators suggest that inflation will not exceed the acceptable rate or range, that output growth is below its potential rate, and that the margin of slack in the economy is significant.
- With regard to interest rates, please refer to the “Assumptions” section at the beginning of the Statistical Appendix.

### Monetary policy assumptions — country-specific notes
- Argentina: Monetary projections are consistent with the overall macroeconomic framework, the fiscal and financing plans, and the monetary and foreign exchange policies.
- Australia: Monetary policy assumptions are based on the IMF staff’s analysis and the expected inflation path.
- Brazil: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with the convergence of inflation to target.
- Canada: Projections reflect the gradual unwinding of monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Canada as inflation slowly returns to its midrange target of 2 percent by the end of 2026.
- Chile: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with attaining the inflation target.
- China: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with inflation gradually rising and the output gap closing over the medium term.
- Denmark: Monetary policy is to maintain the peg to the euro.
- Euro area: Monetary policy assumptions for euro area member countries are drawn from a suite of models (semi-structural, DSGE [dynamic stochastic general equilibrium], Taylor rule), market expectations, and European Central Bank Governing Council communications.
- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: The IMF staff assumes that the currency board system will remain intact.
- Hungary: The IMF staff’s estimates and projections are informed by expert judgment based on recent developments.
- India: Monetary policy projections are consistent with achieving the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation target over the medium term.
- Indonesia: Monetary policy assumptions are in line with inflation within the central bank’s target band over the medium term.
- Israel: Monetary policy assumptions are based on the gradual normalization of monetary policy.
- Japan: Monetary policy assumptions are based on the IMF staff’s assessment of the most likely path for interest rates, considering the broader macroeconomic outlook, the Bank of Japan’s communications, and market expectations.
- Korea: Projections assume that the policy rate will evolve in line with the Bank of Korea’s forward guidance.
- Mexico: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with inflation converging to the central bank’s target over the projection period.
- New Zealand: Monetary projections are based on the IMF staff’s analysis and expected inflation path.
- Russia: Monetary policy projections assume that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is adopting a tight monetary policy stance.
- Saudi Arabia: Monetary policy projections are based on the continuation of the exchange rate peg to the US dollar.
- Singapore: Broad money is projected to grow in line with the projected growth in nominal GDP.
- South Africa: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with maintaining inflation within the 3–6 percent target band over the medium term.
- Sweden: Monetary policy assumptions are based on the IMF staff’s estimates.
- Switzerland: Monetary policy assumptions are based on the IMF staff’s assessment of the most likely path for interest rates, considering the broader macroeconomic outlook, the Swiss National Bank’s inflation forecasts, and market expectations.
- Türkiye: The baseline assumes that the monetary policy stance will remain contractionary in line with announced and observed policies.
- United Kingdom: Monetary policy assumptions are based on the IMF staff’s assessment of the most likely path for interest rates, considering the broader macroeconomic outlook, model results, the Bank of England’s inflation forecasts and communications, and market expectations.
- United States: The IMF staff expects the Federal Open Market Committee to continue to adjust the federal funds target rate in line with the broader macroeconomic outlook.

*Source: STATISTICAL APPENDIX, WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GLOBAL ECONOMY IN FLUX, PROSPECTS REMAIN DIM (October 2025).*

### 2025. For 2025 and 2026, these assumptions imply

### 2025. For 2025 and 2026, these assumptions imply

### Exchange rate and oil price assumptions
- Average US dollar–special drawing right conversion rates: 1.351 (2025) and 1.373 (2026).
- US dollar–euro conversion rates: 1.130 (2025) and 1.167 (2026).
- Yen–US dollar conversion rates: 147.7 (2025) and 145.3 (2026).
- Assumed price of oil: $68.92 a barrel (2025) and $65.84 a barrel (2026).

### Interest rate assumptions
- Three-month government bond yields:
  - United States: 4.3 percent (2025) and 3.7 percent (2026).
  - Euro area: 2.0 percent (2025) and 2.1 percent (2026).
  - Japan: 0.4 percent (2025) and 0.8 percent (2026).
- 10-year government bond yields:
  - United States: 4.3 percent (2025) and 4.1 percent (2026).
  - Euro area: 2.5 percent (2025) and 2.6 percent (2026).
  - Japan: 1.5 percent (2025) and 1.7 percent (2026).

### Policy and projection framing
- National authorities’ established policies are assumed to be maintained.
- Box A1 (referenced in source) describes more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected economies.

### What’s New
- Data for Liechtenstein have been added to the database and are included in the advanced economies group composites.

### Data and methodological conventions
- Data and projections for 197 economies form the statistical basis of the WEO database.
- The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and regional departments, with regional departments regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.
- Most countries’ macroeconomic data as presented in the WEO conform broadly to the 2008 version of the System of National Accounts (SNA 2008).
- IMF sector statistical standards aligned with SNA 2008 mentioned: BPM6, the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide, and the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014).
- WEO estimates are only partly adapted to the most recent versions of these manuals; full concordance depends on revised country data from national statistical compilers.
- Fiscal gross and net debt data are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates; efforts are made to align with GFSM 2014 definitions but deviations can occur because of data limitations or country circumstances.
- Changes in data sources or instrument coverage can give rise to revisions that are sometimes substantial; metadata for the online WEO database provide clarification on deviations.

### Composite construction and aggregation conventions
- Composite data for country groups are either sums or weighted averages of individual country data.
- Multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change unless noted otherwise.
- Arithmetically weighted averages used for all data for the emerging market and developing economies group—except:
  - Inflation and money growth use geometric averages.
- Weighting conventions:
  - Exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates: weighted by GDP converted to US dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.
  - Other domestic economy data (growth rates or ratios): weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total world or group GDP.
- Aggregation of inflation:
  - Advanced economies (and subgroups): annual rates are simple percent changes from the previous years.
  - World inflation and emerging market and developing economies (and subgroups): annual rates are based on logarithmic differences.
- Real GDP per capita in purchasing-power-parity terms: sums of individual country data after conversion to international dollars.
- Euro area composites are corrected for reporting discrepancies in transactions within the area unless noted otherwise.
- Composites for fiscal data: sums of individual country data after conversion to US dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated.
- Composite unemployment rates and employment growth: weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.
- External sector composites: sums of individual country data after conversion to US dollars at average market exchange rates for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than US dollars.
- Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices: arithmetic averages of percent changes for individual countries weighted by the US dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).
- Group composites are computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group weights is represented.
- Data refer to calendar years except for a few countries that use fiscal years; Table F (referenced) lists exceptional reporting periods.
- For some countries, figures for 2024 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns; Table G (referenced) lists the date of the latest actual outturns for indicators.

### Country notes (selected entries)
- Afghanistan: Data for 2021–24 reported for selected indicators, with estimates for fiscal data. GDP growth for 2024 is an estimate. Projections for 2025–30 are omitted because IMF has paused engagement; reported GDP growth rate for solar year 2021 is –20.7 percent.
- Algeria: Total government expenditure and net lending/borrowing include net lending by the government reflecting support to the pension system and other public sector entities.
- Argentina: Official national CPI starts in December 2016; WEO does not report average CPI inflation for 2014–16 and end-of-period inflation for 2015–16. Labor market data discontinued starting Q4 2015; new series available starting Q2 2016.
- Bolivia: Projections for 2026–30 omitted owing to significant uncertainty.
- Costa Rica: Central government definition expanded as of January 1, 2021, to include 51 public entities in accordance with Law 9524; data back to 2019 adjusted for comparability.
- Dominican Republic: Fiscal series coverage details provided (consolidated public sector vs central government distinctions).
- Ecuador: Fiscal projections for 2025–30 excluded from publication because of ongoing program discussions.
- Eritrea: Data and projections for 2020–30 excluded because of constraints in data reporting.
- India: Real GDP growth rates calculated in accordance with national accounts with base year 2011/12.
- Iran: Nominal GDP in US dollars computed using official exchange rate up to 2017; from 2018 onward NIMA exchange rate is used.
- Israel: Projections subject to heightened uncertainty owing to the conflict in the region and may undergo revisions.
- Lebanon: Fiscal and national accounts data for 2022–24, and debt data for 2023–24, are IMF staff estimates; estimates and projections for 2025–30 omitted owing to unusually high uncertainty.
- Libya: Actual data and projections are subject to high uncertainty due to frequent data revisions; fiscal and debt data for 2024 are IMF staff estimates.
- Nigeria: National accounts rebased with 2019 as new base year; rebasing resulted in upward revision of nominal GDP by 40.8 percent in 2019.
- Pakistan: Projections do not yet reflect the impact of flooding in summer 2025, impact still being assessed.
- Sierra Leone: Local currency data are expressed in the old leone for the October 2025 WEO despite redenomination on July 1, 2022.
- Sri Lanka: Data and projections for 2025–30 excluded owing to ongoing discussions on restructuring of sovereign debt.
- Sudan: Projections reflect IMF staff analysis assuming ongoing conflict terminates by end-2025 and reengagement and reconstruction commence shortly thereafter; data for 2011 exclude South Sudan after July 9; data for 2012 onward pertain to the current Sudan.
- Syria: Data excluded from 2011 onward because of the uncertain political situation.
- Timor-Leste: Published real GDP refers to non-oil real GDP, while published nominal GDP refers to total nominal GDP.
- Turkmenistan: Real GDP data are IMF staff estimates compiled in line with SNA using official estimates, UN and World Bank databases; fiscal balance estimates/projections exclude receipts from domestic bond issuances and privatization operations in line with GFSM 2014.
- Ukraine: Revised national accounts data available for 2000 onward and exclude Crimea and Sevastopol from 2010 onward.
- Uruguay: Authorities began reporting national accounts according to SNA 2008 with base year 2016; new series begin in 2016. Public pension transfers under Law 19,590 of 2017 affected data for 2018–22.

*Source: STATISTICAL APPENDIX, WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: GLOBAL ECONOMY IN FLUX, PROSPECTS REMAIN DIM (October 2025).*

### 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018, 1.0 percent of GDP

### statsappendix - 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018, 1.0 percent of GDP

### Fiscal-data series and country-specific adjustments
- Reported sequence for a fiscal series: 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018, 1.0 percent of GDP in 2019, 0.6 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.3 percent of GDP in 2021, 0.1 percent of GDP in 2022, and 0 thereafter.
- Disclaimer: the disclaimer about the public pension system applies only to the revenues and net lending/borrowing series.
- Uruguay
  - Coverage changed from consolidated public sector to nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 WEO.
  - Nonfinancial public sector coverage includes the central government, local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado.
  - Under the narrower fiscal perimeter (which excludes the central bank), assets and liabilities held by the nonfinancial public sector for which the counterpart is the central bank are not netted out in debt figures.
  - Capitalization bonds issued in the past by the government to the central bank are now part of the nonfinancial public sector debt.
  - Historical data were revised accordingly.
- Venezuela
  - Projecting the outlook is rendered difficult by lack of discussions with the authorities (the most recent Article IV consultation took place in 2004), incomplete metadata, and difficulties reconciling reported indicators with economic developments.
  - Fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government; social security; FOGADE; and a reduced set of public enterprises, including Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A.
  - Following methodological upgrades to achieve a more robust nominal GDP, historical data and indicators expressed as a percentage of GDP have been revised from 2012 onward.
  - For most indicators, data for 2018–24 are IMF staff estimates.
  - The effects of hyperinflation, paucity of reported data, and uncertainty mean IMF staff estimates and projections should be interpreted with caution.
  - Venezuela’s consumer prices are excluded from all WEO group composites.
- West Bank and Gaza
  - Estimates and projections for 2025–30 are excluded from publication owing to the unusually high degree of uncertainty.
  - Annual data for the unemployment rate are available up to 2022.
- Zimbabwe
  - Authorities redenominated national accounts statistics following introduction on April 5, 2024, of a new national currency, the Zimbabwe gold, replacing the Zimbabwe dollar.
  - The use of the Zimbabwe dollar ceased on April 30, 2024.

### Classification of economies — composition and aggregates
- The WEO divides the world into two major groups: advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (classification is not based on strict criteria and has evolved over time).
- Counts and aggregate shares (2024)
  - Advanced Economies: 42 economies.
  - Emerging Market and Developing Economies: 155 economies.
  - Advanced Economies — shares in world aggregates (percent of total): GDP 39.6 percent; Exports of goods and services 61.0 percent; Population 13.8 percent.
  - Emerging Market and Developing Economies — shares in world aggregates (percent of total): GDP 60.4 percent; Exports of goods and services 39.0 percent; Population 86.2 percent.
- Group definitions and analytical criteria
  - Advanced economies list and subgroupings (major advanced economies and euro area) are specified in the appendix (Table B, Table C).
  - Emerging Market and Developing Economies (155) comprises all those not classified as advanced economies and are broken down by region: emerging and developing Asia; emerging and developing Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; Middle East and Central Asia; and sub-Saharan Africa.
  - Analytical groups distinguish export-earnings source (Fuel, Nonfuel, Of which, Primary Products) using SITC classifications and require that the main source exceed 50 percent of total exports on average between 2020 and 2024.
  - Financial and income criteria classify economies as net creditor or net debtor (net debtors: latest net international investment position < 0 or cumulative current account balance accumulations from 1972 to 2024 negative), with further differentiation by experience with debt servicing.
  - Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs), Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs), and Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies (EMMIEs) are separately identified; LIDC threshold is based on $2,700 in 2017 (World Bank Atlas method) and updated following new information in early 2024.
- Note on omissions
  - Some economies are omitted from classification composites where data are insufficient (examples: West Bank and Gaza omitted from some composites; Syria omitted from group composites across all analytical and Other Groups because of insufficient data).

### Key tabulated summaries and illustrative figures
- Table A (classification aggregates, 2024): group counts and shares summarized above.
- Analytical group highlights (aggregates shown in Table A):
  - By source of export earnings: Fuel group count 26; Nonfuel group count 127; Of which, Primary Products count 35.
  - By external financing source: Net Debtor Economies count 117.
  - Other group counts: Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies count 96; Low-Income Developing Countries count 58; Heavily Indebted Poor Countries count 39.
- Exceptional reporting periods, key data documentation, and country-by-country metadata are provided in the appendix tables (national accounts base years, CPI data vintage, government finance subsector coverage, accounting practice, balance of payments data vintage).

### Fiscal policy assumptions underlying projections (Box A1)
- General approach
  - Short-term fiscal policy assumptions normally based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between national authorities and IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns.
  - When no official budget announced, projections incorporate policy measures judged likely to be implemented.
  - Medium-term fiscal projections are based on a judgment about policies’ most likely path.
  - If IMF staff has insufficient information to assess authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed unless indicated otherwise.
- Selected country-specific notes and assumptions
  - Argentina: Projections based on available information on budget outturn, budget plans, and IMF-supported program targets for the federal government; interest bill excludes interest payments of zero-coupon bonds issued prior to September 2025, which are recorded below the line.
  - Australia: Projections based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the FY2025/26 Commonwealth budget and FY2024/25 state/territory budgets, and IMF staff estimates.
  - Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong SAR, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Portugal, Puerto Rico: projections informed by the authorities’ budgets/medium-term plans, adjusted where necessary to reflect IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions and judgment (specific country-level adjustments described in the appendix).
  - India: General government data cover central and state governments; state government data incorporated with a lag up to two years; starting with FY2020/21, expenditure includes the off-budget component of food subsidies consistent with revised treatment in the budget; FY2020/21 IMF staff adjusted expenditure to remove payments for FY2019/20 food subsidies.
  - Russia: Fiscal rule suspended in March 2022; 2019 rule used $40 per barrel benchmark oil price; 2023–25 budget used a modified rule with benchmark oil and gas revenues fixed in rubles at Rub 8 trillion; late September 2023 Ministry of Finance proposed reverting to earlier fiscal rule from 2024 with a benchmark oil price set at $60 a barrel; new rule effective in the 2025 budget allows higher oil and gas revenues to be spent while targeting a smaller primary structural deficit.
  - Saudi Arabia: Baseline fiscal projections based primarily on government policies as outlined in the 2025 budget and recent official announcements; export oil revenues based on WEO baseline oil price assumptions and IMF staff understanding of OPEC+ production adjustments and those unilaterally announced by Saudi Arabia.
  - Israel: Projections subject to significant risks given unpredictability of the current conflict and its impact on the economy; fiscal projections are for the general government and take the 2025 budget into account.
  - Other country-specific fiscal assumptions and methodological notes are documented in Box A1 and the related appendix tables.

*International Monetary Fund — Statistical Appendix (excerpts provided in source content).*

### 2024. FY2025 projections are based on the initial

### statsappendix - 2024. FY2025 projections are based on the initial

### Fiscal assumptions — general and country notes
- FY2025 projections are based on the initial budget of February 18, 2025.
- Nontax revenue excludes transactions in financial assets and liabilities, as they involve primarily revenues associated with the realized exchange rate valuation gains from the holding of foreign currency deposits, sale of assets, and conceptually similar items.
- Eskom debt relief is treated as a capital transfer above-the-line item.
- Spain: Figures for 2021–28 reflect disbursements of grants and loans under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility.
- Sweden: Fiscal estimates for 2024 are based on the authorities’ budget bill and have been updated with the authorities’ latest interim forecast. The impact of cyclical developments on the fiscal accounts is calculated using the 2014 OECD study to take into account output gaps.
- Switzerland: The projections assume that fiscal policy is adjusted as necessary to keep fiscal balances in line with the requirements of Switzerland’s fiscal rules.
- Türkiye: The basis for the projections is the IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some revenue and expenditure items that are included in the authorities’ headline balance.
- United Kingdom: Fiscal projections are based on the March 2025 forecast of the Office for Budget Responsibility and the January 2025 release on public sector finances from the Office for National Statistics. The IMF staff’s projections take the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast as a reference and overlay adjustments for differences in assumptions. Data are presented on a calendar year basis.
- United States: Fiscal projections are based on the January 2025 Congressional Budget Office baseline, adjusted for the IMF staff’s policy and macroeconomic assumptions. Projections incorporate the effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed on July 4, 2025.
- South Africa: Fiscal assumptions are informed by the 2025 budget.

### Monetary Policy Assumptions — general framework
- Monetary policy assumptions are based on the established policy framework in each economy.
- In most cases, this implies a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle: Official interest rates will increase when economic indicators suggest that inflation will rise above its acceptable rate or range; they will decrease when indicators suggest that inflation will not exceed the acceptable rate or range, that output growth is below its potential rate, and that the margin of slack in the economy is significant.
- With regard to interest rates, please refer to the “Assumptions” section at the beginning of the Statistical Appendix.

### Monetary policy assumptions — country-specific notes
- Argentina: Monetary projections are consistent with the overall macroeconomic framework, the fiscal and financing plans, and the monetary and foreign exchange policies.
- Australia: Monetary policy assumptions are based on the IMF staff’s analysis and the expected inflation path.
- Brazil: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with the convergence of inflation to target.
- Canada: Projections reflect the gradual unwinding of monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Canada as inflation slowly returns to its midrange target of 2 percent by the end of 2026.
- Chile: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with attaining the inflation target.
- China: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with inflation gradually rising and the output gap closing over the medium term.
- Denmark: Monetary policy is to maintain the peg to the euro.
- Euro area: Monetary policy assumptions for euro area member countries are drawn from a suite of models (semi-structural, DSGE [dynamic stochastic general equilibrium], Taylor rule), market expectations, and European Central Bank Governing Council communications.
- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: The IMF staff assumes that the currency board system will remain intact.
- Hungary: The IMF staff’s estimates and projections are informed by expert judgment based on recent developments.
- India: Monetary policy projections are consistent with achieving the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation target over the medium term.
- Indonesia: Monetary policy assumptions are in line with inflation within the central bank’s target band over the medium term.
- Israel: Monetary policy assumptions are based on the gradual normalization of monetary policy.
- Japan: Monetary policy assumptions are based on the IMF staff’s assessment of the most likely path for interest rates, considering the broader macroeconomic outlook, the Bank of Japan’s communications, and market expectations.
- Korea: Projections assume that the policy rate will evolve in line with the Bank of Korea’s forward guidance.
- Mexico: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with inflation converging to the central bank’s target over the projection period.
- New Zealand: Monetary projections are based on the IMF staff’s analysis and expected inflation path.
- Russia: Monetary policy projections assume that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is adopting a tight monetary policy stance.
- Saudi Arabia: Monetary policy projections are based on the continuation of the exchange rate peg to the US dollar.
- Singapore: Broad money is projected to grow in line with the projected growth in nominal GDP.
- South Africa: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with maintaining inflation within the 3–6 percent target band over the medium term.
- Sweden: Monetary policy assumptions are based on the IMF staff’s estimates.
- Switzerland: Monetary policy assumptions are based on the IMF staff’s assessment of the most likely path for interest rates, considering the broader macroeconomic outlook, the Swiss National Bank’s inflation forecasts, and market expectations.
- Türkiye: The baseline assumes that the monetary policy stance will remain contractionary in line with announced and observed policies.
- United Kingdom: Monetary policy assumptions are based on the IMF staff’s assessment of the most likely path for interest rates, considering the broader macroeconomic outlook, model results, the Bank of England’s inflation forecasts and communications, and market expectations.
- United States: The IMF staff expects the Federal Open Market Committee to continue to adjust the federal funds target rate in line with the broader macroeconomic outlook.

*Source: statsappendix - 2024. FY2025 projections are based on the initial*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2025/october/english/statsappendix.pdf_