## statsappendix — Online Statistical Appendix ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [statsappendix — Online Statistical Appendix](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/october/english/statsappendix.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/october/english/statsappendix.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/october/english/statsappendix.pdf.json) --- ### Overview - The Online Statistical Appendix presents historical data as well as projections and comprises eight sections: Assumptions, What’s New, Data and Conventions, Country Notes, Classification of Economies, General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification, Key Data Documentation, and Statistical Tables. - The first section summarizes the assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2026–27. - The last section comprises the statistical tables presented in two separate parts, Online Statistical Appendix Tables A and Online Statistical Appendix Tables B. - Data in these tables have been compiled based on information available through September 30, 2026, but may not reflect the latest published data in all cases. - The figures for 2026–27 are shown with the same degree of precision as the historical figures solely for convenience; because they are projections, the same degree of accuracy is not to be inferred. ### Assumptions (macroeconomic and market) - Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels measured during July 31, 2026–August 28, 2026. - Currency and price assumptions: - US dollar–special drawing right conversion rates: 1.368 for 2026 and 1.374 for 2027. - US dollar–euro conversion rates: 1.162 for 2026 and 1.160 for 2027. - Yen–US dollar conversion rates: 158.8 for 2026 and 158.4 for 2027. - Oil price: $95.74 a barrel in 2026 and $87.39 a barrel in 2027. - National authorities’ established policies are assumed to be maintained. - Interest rate assumptions: - Three-month government bond yield: - United States: 3.8 percent in 2026 and 4.3 percent in 2027. - Euro area: 2.3 percent in 2026 and 3.0 percent in 2027. - Japan: 1.0 percent in 2026 and 1.4 percent in 2027. - 10-year government bond yield: - United States: 4.5 percent in 2026 and 4.6 percent in 2027. - Euro area: 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.5 percent in 2027. - Japan: 2.6 percent in 2026 and 3.0 percent in 2027. ### What’s New - Nauru is now referred to as Naoero. - Composites for Net Debtor Economies, Net Debtor Economies with Arrears and/or Rescheduling, and Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) are no longer published in the Online Statistical Appendix Tables. ### Data and Conventions - Database coverage: - Data and projections for 197 economies form the statistical basis of the WEO database. - The WEO database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations. - Statistical standards and updates: - Most countries’ macroeconomic data as presented in the WEO conform broadly to the 2008 version of the System of National Accounts (SNA 2008). - The IMF’s sector manuals aligned with SNA 2008 include BPM6, the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide, and GFSM 2014. - Conversion to updated standards depends on national statistical compilers; WEO estimates are only partly adapted to the most recent versions. - Fiscal data: - Fiscal gross and net debt data are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates; alignment with GFSM 2014 is attempted but deviations can occur. - Composite construction and aggregation conventions (selected, verbatim conventions and weights): - Composite data for country groups are either sums or weighted averages of individual country data. - Multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change unless noted otherwise. - Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data for the emerging market and developing economies group—except data on inflation and money growth, for which geometric averages are used. - Composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to US dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP. - Composites for other domestic-economy data are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total world or group GDP. - Aggregation of inflation: - Advanced economies (and subgroups): annual rates are simple percent changes from the previous years. - World inflation and inflation in emerging market and developing economies (and subgroups): annual rates are based on logarithmic differences. - Composites for real GDP per capita in purchasing-power-parity terms are sums of individual country data after conversion to international dollars in the years indicated. - For data prior to 1999, data aggregations apply 1995 European currency unit exchange rates. - Composites for fiscal data are sums of individual country data after conversion to US dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated. - Group composites are computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group weights is represented. - Periods and estimates: - Data refer to calendar years except for a few countries that use fiscal years; Online Table F lists economies with exceptional reporting periods. - For some countries, figures for 2025 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns; Online Table G lists the date of the latest actual outturns for indicators. ### Country Notes — selected excerpts (reporting adjustments, exclusions, and special cases) - Afghanistan: - Data for 2021–25 are reported for selected indicators. GDP growth for 2025 is an estimate. - Projections for 2026–31 are omitted because of an unusually high degree of uncertainty; IMF engagement is paused owing to recognition issues. - Reported GDP growth rate for solar year 2021 is –20.7 percent (structural break from calendar to solar year reporting). - Central African Republic: - In June 2026, ICASEES published rebased national accounts resulting in an upward revision of nominal GDP for 2019 by 36.4 percent; services account for about 93 percent of the net upward revision, with estimated value added increasing by approximately 90 percent. - India: - Real GDP growth rates are calculated in accordance with national accounts with base year 2022/23. - Libya, Lebanon, Eritrea, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Ecuador: - Various exclusions of projections or reliance on IMF staff estimates are noted (for example, Libya: fiscal and debt data for 2025 and national accounts data for 2020–25 are IMF staff estimates). - Nigeria: - National accounts were rebased with 2019 as the new base year replacing the 2010 benchmark; the rebasing resulted in an upward revision of nominal GDP for 2019 by 40.8 percent. - Timor-Leste: - Published data for real GDP refer to non-oil real GDP, while published data for nominal GDP refer to total nominal GDP; non-oil GDP and total GDP are equal for both real and nominal GDP from 2026 onwards. - Ukraine: - SNA 2008 National Accounts data are available starting in 2000 on an annual basis; data exclude Crimea, Sevastopol, and occupied territories in Donetsk and Luhansk for 2014–21 and, from 2022 onwards, areas occupied or affected by ongoing military actions for the duration of such occupation or actions. ### Classification of economies and key statistics (Online Table A, 2025) - Economy classification summary: - Two major groups: advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies; classification is not based on strict criteria. - Key statistics (Online Table A, 2025) — Advanced Economies: - Number of Economies: 43 - gDP: 100.0 (advanced Economies) ; World share: 39.5 - Exports of goods and services: 100.0 ; World share: 61.2 - Population: 100.0 ; World share: 13.9 - United States (2025): - gDP: 37.1 ; World share: 14.6 - Exports of goods and services: 16.1 ; World share: 9.9 - Population: 30.7 ; World share: 4.3 - Euro area (2025): - gDP: 21 ; World share: 29.0 ; Exports: 11.4 ; World share: 21.2 ; Population: 32.2 ; World share: 4.5 - Japan (2025): - gDP: 8.5 ; World share: 3.3 ; Exports: 4.6 ; World share: 2.8 ; Population: 11.1 ; World share: 1.5 - Emerging Market and Developing Economies (Regional aggregates, 2025): - Number of Economies: 154 - gDP: 100.0 ; World share: 60.5 - Exports of goods and services: 100.0 ; World share: 38.8 - Population: 100.0 ; World share: 86.1 - China (2025): - gDP: 32.3 ; World share: 19.6 - Exports: 30.6 ; World share: 11.9 - Population: 20.3 ; World share: 17.5 - India (2025): - gDP: 13.6 ; World share: 8.2 - Exports: 6.4 ; World share: 2.5 - Population: 21.2 ; World share: 18.2 - Analytical groups by source of export earnings (2021–25 average criterion): - Fuel: 25 economies ; gDP share: 10.3 ; World exports share: 6.3 ; Emerging Market and Developing Economies exports share: 15.6 ; World population share: 6.0 ; Emerging share: 9.5 ; World population share: 8.2 - Nonfuel: 128 economies ; gDP share: 89.7 ; World share: 54.4 ; Exports share: 84.4 ; World share: 32.8 ; Population share: 90.5 ; World share: 78.0 - Primary Products (of which): 35 economies ; gDP share: 3.6 ; World share: 2.2 ; Exports share: 4.6 ; World share: 1.8 ; Population share: 9.0 ; World share: 7.8 - Income-based groups (2025): - Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: 95 ; gDP share: 92.5 ; World share: 56.0 ; Exports share: 95.5 ; World share: 37.1 ; Population share: 76.8 ; World share: 66.1 - Low-Income Developing Countries: 58 ; gDP share: 7.5 ; World share: 4.6 ; Exports share: 4.5 ; World share: 1.7 ; Population share: 23.2 ; World share: 20.0 ### Key data documentation and reporting metadata (Online Table G and Section 4 excerpts) - Online Table G fields covered: historical Data source; Latest actual annual Data; Base Year; system of National accounts; Use of Chain-Weighted Methodology; accounting Practice at subsectors Coverage; historical Data source (for CPI); Latest actual annual Data (for CPI). - Representative verbatim country source lines (examples preserved verbatim): - afghanistanMoF2025/262001CgCCB2024/25BPM 6 - United statesUs dollarNsO20252017sNa 2008From 1980NsO2025 - ChinaMoF2025. . .Cg,Lg,ssCgaD2025BPM 6 - ZimbabweZimbabwe goldNsO20252025sNa 2008NsO2025 - Section 4 country reporting metadata (selected verbatim examples): - Vincent and the grenadines — MoF20252001CgCCB2025BPM 6 - switzerland — MoF20252001Cg,sg,Lg,ssaCB2025BPM 6 - West Bank and gaza — MoF20252001CgMixedNsO2025BPM 6 - Yemen — MoF20252001Cg,LgCIMF staff2024BPM 6 - Zimbabwe — MoF20251986CgCCB and MoF2025BPM 6 - Abbreviations and definitions (verbatim): - "Note: BPM = Balance of Payments Manual; CPI = consumer price index; Esa = European system of National accounts; saR = special administrative Region; sNa = system of National accounts." - "1 CB = central bank; gaD = general administration Department; MEP = Ministry of Economy, Planning, Commerce, and/or Development; MoF = Ministry of Finance and/or Treasury; NsO = National statistics Office." - "4 Cg = central government; Lg = local government; MPC = monetary public corporation, including central bank; NFPC = nonfinancial public corporation; sg = state government; ss = social security fund." - "5 accounting practice: a = accrual accounting; C = cash accounting; CB = commitments basis accounting; Mixed = combination of accrual and cash accounting." ### Fiscal policy assumptions (Online Box A1) — methodology and country excerpts - General methodology: - Short-term fiscal policy assumptions are normally based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff. - When no official budget has been announced, projections incorporate policy measures judged likely to be implemented. - Medium-term fiscal projections are based on a judgment about policies’ most likely path. - Where IMF staff has insufficient information, "an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed unless indicated otherwise." - Structural balance computation (verbatim): - "The output gap is actual minus potential output, as a percentage of potential output. Structural balances are expressed as a percentage of potential output. The structural balance is the actual net lending/borrowing minus the effects of cyclical output from potential output, corrected for one-time and other factors, such as asset and commodity prices and output composition effects. Changes in the structural balance consequently include effects of temporary fiscal measures, the impact of fluctuations in interest rates and debt-service costs, and other noncyclical fluc-tua-tions in net lending/borrowing. The computations of structural balances are based on the IMF staff ’s estimates of potential GDP and revenue and expenditure elasticities. (See Annex I of the October 1993 World Economic Outlook.) Estimates of the output gap and of the structural balance are subject to significant mar-gins of uncertainty. Net debt is calculated as gross debt minus financial assets corresponding to debt instruments." - Selected country-specific fiscal assumptions (verbatim or near-verbatim excerpts preserved): - Argentina: "Fiscal projections are based on the available information regarding budget outturn, budget plans, and IMF-supported program targets for the federal government; on fiscal measures announced by the authorities; and on the IMF staff ’s macroeconomic projections." - China: "The IMF staff ’s fiscal projections incorporate the 2026 budget as well as estimates of off-budget financing." - France: Projections for 2027 onward are based on measures in the authorities’ 2023–27 multiannual budget programming bill and adjustments consistent with the 0.5 percent of GDP minimum structural adjustment under the EU’s Excessive Deficit Procedure. - Russia (policy rule chronology and parameter values, verbatim): "The fiscal rule was suspended in March 2022 following the imposition of sanctions after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, allowing windfall oil and gas revenues and accumulated National Welfare Fund savings to finance higher spending. ... The benchmark was set at $60 per barrel in 2024–25 and $59 in 2026, although the government was authorized to exceed the rule-implied expenditure ceiling in 2026. Under the 2027–29 budget, the benchmark is lowered to $50 per barrel, while temporary spending above the rule-implied level and a non-zero primary deficit are permitted before a return to a zero structural primary deficit in 2029." ### Monetary policy assumptions (Online Box A1) — overview and country excerpts - General statement (verbatim): "Monetary policy assumptions are based on the established policy framework in each economy. In most cases, this implies a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle..." - Selected country-specific assumptions (verbatim or near-verbatim excerpts preserved): - Canada: "Projections reflect the gradual unwinding of monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Canada as inflation slowly returns to its midrange target of 2 percent by the end of 2026." - China: "Monetary policy assumptions incorporate a continued modestly accommodative policy stance." - Denmark: "Monetary policy is to maintain the peg to the euro." - Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: "The IMF staff assumes that the currency board system will remain intact." - Japan: "Monetary policy assumptions are based on the IMF staff ’s assessment of the most likely path for interest rates, considering the broader macroeconomic outlook, the Bank of Japan’s communications, and market expectations." - Russia: "Monetary policy projections assume that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is adopting a tight monetary policy stance." - Saudi Arabia: "Monetary policy projections are based on the continuation of the exchange rate peg to the US dollar." - South Africa: "Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with maintaining inflation at a 3 percent target with a ±1 percentage point tolerance band over the medium term." ### Selected country-level notes and reporting adjustments (Sections 2–5 excerpts) - Uruguay: - Began reporting national accounts according to SNA 2008 with base year 2016 in December 2020; coverage of fiscal data changed from consolidated public sector to nonfinancial public sector with October 2019 WEO. - Venezuela: - Historical series revised to incorporate official data where available; nominal GDP in U.S. dollars is derived using staff estimates of a representative exchange rate; fiscal accounts are estimated by staff from 2018 onward; public debt estimates are not published. - West Bank and Gaza: - Estimates and projections for 2026–31 are excluded from publication owing to the unusually high degree of uncertainty; latest actual annual data for consumer prices, population, and government finances are for 2025. - Zimbabwe: - Authorities redenominated national accounts statistics mid-2025 following introduction on April 5, 2024, of a new national currency, the Zimbabwe gold; use of the Zimbabwe dollar ceased on April 30, 2024. - Türkiye, United Kingdom, United States (Section 5 monetary policy notes): - Türkiye: Baseline assumes monetary policy stance will remain contractionary in line with announced and observed policies. - United Kingdom: Monetary policy assumptions are based on IMF staff assessment considering model results and the Bank of England’s forecasts and communications. - United States: IMF staff expects the Federal Open Market Committee to continue to adjust the federal funds target rate in line with the broader macroeconomic outlook. *International Monetary Fund | October 2026* ### Section 1 ### Online Statistical Appendix — Section 1 ### Overview - The Online Statistical Appendix presents historical data as well as projections and comprises eight sections: Assumptions, What’s New, Data and Conventions, Country Notes, Classification of Economies, General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification, Key Data Documentation, and Statistical Tables. - The first section summarizes the assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2026–27. The second section briefly describes the changes to the database and statistical tables since the April 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO). The third section offers a general description of the data and the conventions used for calculating country group composites. The fourth section presents selected key information for each country. The fifth section summarizes the classification of economies in the various groups presented in the WEO, and the sixth section explains that classification in further detail. The seventh section provides information on methods and reporting standards for the member countries’ national account and government finance indicators included in the report. - The last section comprises the statistical tables presented in two separate parts, Online Statistical Appendix Tables A and Online Statistical Appendix Tables B. - Data in these tables have been compiled based on information available through September 30, 2026, but may not reflect the latest published data in all cases. For the date of the last data update for each economy, refer to the notes provided in the online WEO database. - The figures for 2026–27 are shown with the same degree of precision as the historical figures solely for convenience; because they are projections, the same degree of accuracy is not to be inferred. ### Assumptions - Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels measured during July 31, 2026–August 28, 2026. - These assumptions imply average US dollar–special drawing right conversion rates of 1.368 and 1.374 for 2026 and 2027, respectively. - These assumptions imply US dollar–euro conversion rates of 1.162 and 1.160 for 2026 and 2027, respectively. - These assumptions imply yen–US dollar conversion rates of 158.8 and 158.4 for 2026 and 2027, respectively. - It is assumed that the price of oil will average $95.74 a barrel in 2026 and $87.39 a barrel in 2027. - National authorities’ established policies are assumed to be maintained. Online Box A1 describes the more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected economies. - Interest rate assumptions: - Three-month government bond yield: - United States: 3.8 percent in 2026 and 4.3 percent in 2027. - Euro area: 2.3 percent in 2026 and 3.0 percent in 2027. - Japan: 1.0 percent in 2026 and 1.4 percent in 2027. - 10-year government bond yield: - United States: 4.5 percent in 2026 and 4.6 percent in 2027. - Euro area: 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.5 percent in 2027. - Japan: 2.6 percent in 2026 and 3.0 percent in 2027. ### What’s New - Nauru is now referred to as Naoero. - Composites for Net Debtor Economies, Net Debtor Economies with Arrears and/or Rescheduling, and Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) are no longer published in the Online Statistical Appendix Tables. ### Data and Conventions - Data and projections for 197 economies form the statistical basis of the WEO database. The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and regional departments, with the latter regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions. - The WEO database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations. - Most countries’ macroeconomic data as presented in the WEO conform broadly to the 2008 version of the System of National Accounts (SNA 2008). - The IMF’s sector statistical standards—the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6), the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide, and the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014)—have been aligned with the SNA 2008. - Conversion to the updated standards is dependent on national statistical compilers providing revised country data; the WEO estimates are only partly adapted to the most recent versions of these manuals. - Fiscal gross and net debt data reported in the WEO are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates; attempts are made to align with GFSM 2014 definitions, but deviations can occur because of data limitations or specific country circumstances. - Composite construction and aggregation conventions: - Composite data for country groups are either sums or weighted averages of individual country data. - Unless noted otherwise, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change. - Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data for the emerging market and developing economies group—except data on inflation and money growth, for which geometric averages are used. - Composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to US dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP. - Composites for other domestic-economy data are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total world or group GDP. - Aggregation of inflation: - Advanced economies (and subgroups): annual rates are simple percent changes from the previous years. - World inflation and inflation in emerging market and developing economies (and subgroups): annual rates are based on logarithmic differences. - Composites for real GDP per capita in purchasing-power-parity terms are sums of individual country data after conversion to international dollars in the years indicated. - Composites for all sectors for the euro area are corrected for reporting discrepancies in transactions within the area; unadjusted annual GDP data are used for the euro area and most individual countries, except Cyprus, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain, which report calendar-adjusted data. - For data prior to 1999, data aggregations apply 1995 European currency unit exchange rates. - Composites for fiscal data are sums of individual country data after conversion to US dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated. - Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force. - Composites relating to external sector statistics are sums of individual country data after conversion to US dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than US dollars. - Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices are arithmetic averages of percent changes for individual countries weighted by the US dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year). - Group composites are computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group weights is represented. - Data refer to calendar years except for a few countries that use fiscal years; Online Table F lists economies with exceptional reporting periods. - For some countries, figures for 2025 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns; Online Table G lists the date of the latest actual outturns for indicators in the national accounts, prices, government finance, and balance of payments for each country. ### Country Notes (selected excerpts) - Afghanistan: Data for 2021–25 are reported for selected indicators. GDP growth for 2025 is an estimate. Projections for 2026–31 are omitted because of an unusually high degree of uncertainty, given that the IMF has paused its engagement with Afghanistan owing to a lack of clarity within the international community regarding the recognition of a government in the country. Data reported in the WEO include a structural break in 2021 as a result of the change from calendar year to solar year reporting; the actual reported GDP growth rate for solar year 2021 is –20.7 percent. - Algeria: Total government expenditure and net lending/borrowing include net lending by the government, which mostly reflects support to the pension system and other public sector entities. - Argentina: The official national consumer price index (CPI) starts in December 2016. For earlier periods, CPI data reflect various regional and city indices; the WEO does not report average CPI inflation for 2014–16 and end-of-period inflation for 2015–16. Argentina discontinued publication of labor market data starting in the fourth quarter of 2015, and new series became available starting in the second quarter of 2016. - Benin: Fiscal and debt data from 2021 through 2024 have been revised; revised data were prepared in collaboration with the authorities and confirmed pending official publication. - Central African Republic: In June 2026, ICASEES published rebased national accounts that resulted in an upward revision of nominal GDP for 2019 by 36.4 percent; services account for about 93 percent of the net upward revision, with their estimated value added increasing by approximately 90 percent. - Costa Rica: The central government definition was expanded as of January 1, 2021, to include 51 public entities in accordance with Law 9524; data back to 2019 are adjusted for comparability. - Dominican Republic: Public debt, debt service, and cyclically adjusted/structural balances are for the consolidated public sector; remaining fiscal series are for the central government. - Ecuador: Fiscal projections for 2026–31 are excluded from publication because of ongoing program discussions. - Eritrea: Data and projections for 2020–31 are excluded from the database because of constraints in data reporting. - India: Real GDP growth rates are calculated in accordance with national accounts with base year 2022/23. - Iran: Historical figures for nominal GDP in US dollars are computed using the official exchange rate up to 2017; from 2018 onward, the NIMA transfer rate is used to convert nominal rial GDP to US dollars. - Italy: Data and forecasts reflect information available through September 21, 2026. - Lebanon: Fiscal data for 2022–25, debt data since 2023, and national accounts data for 2025 are IMF staff estimates; estimates and projections for 2026–31 are omitted owing to an unusually high degree of uncertainty. - Libya: Actual data and projections are subject to high uncertainty; fiscal and debt data for 2025 and national accounts data for 2020–25 are IMF staff estimates. Inflation projections are based on the revised methodology recently implemented by the authorities. - Nigeria: National accounts were rebased with 2019 as the new base year replacing the 2010 benchmark; the rebasing resulted in an upward revision of nominal GDP for 2019 by 40.8 percent. - Senegal: Projections for 2026–31 are excluded from publication because of ongoing program discussions. - Sierra Leone: Although the currency was redenominated on July 1, 2022, local currency data are expressed in the old leone for the October 2026 WEO. - Sudan: Projections reflect IMF staff analysis based on the assumption that the ongoing conflict will terminate by the end of 2026 and that reengagement and reconstruction will commence shortly thereafter. Data for 2011 exclude South Sudan after July 9; data for 2012 and onward pertain to the current Sudan. - Syria: Data are excluded from 2011 onward because of the uncertain political situation. - Timor-Leste: Published data for real GDP refer to non-oil real GDP, while published data for nominal GDP refer to total nominal GDP; non-oil GDP and total GDP are equal for both real and nominal GDP from 2026 onwards. - Turkmenistan: Real GDP data are IMF staff estimates compiled using production volumes of energy commodities, average growth rates of peer countries for other industries and services, and official real GDP growth for other sectors. Estimates and projections for the fiscal balance exclude receipts from domestic bond issuances and privatization operations, in line with GFSM 2014. - Ukraine: SNA 2008 National Accounts data are available starting in 2000 on an annual basis. Data exclude Crimea, Sevastopol, and occupied territories in Donetsk and Luhansk for 2014–21. From 2022 onwards, data exclude areas that are occupied or affected by ongoing military actions for the duration of such occupation or actions. Data before 2000 are IMF staff estimates based on SNA 1993 data provided by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. *International Monetary Fund | October 2026* ### Section 2 ### Section 2 — Country Notes and Classification ### Country-level data revisions and reporting notes - Uruguay: - In December 2020, the authorities began reporting national accounts data according to the SNA 2008, with base year 2016. The new series begin in 2016. Data prior to 2016 reflect the IMF staff ’s best effort to preserve previously reported data and avoid structural breaks. - Starting in October 2018, Uruguay’s public pension system received transfers in the context of Law 19,590 of 2017, which compensates people affected by the creation of the country’s mixed pension system. These funds are recorded as revenues, consistent with the IMF’s methodology. See IMF Country Report 19/64 for further details. - The disclaimer about the public pension system applies only to the revenues and net lending/borrowing series. - The coverage of the fiscal data for Uruguay was changed from consolidated public sector to nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 WEO. Nonfinancial public sector coverage includes the central government, local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado. Historical data were also revised accordingly. - Under the narrower fiscal perimeter (which excludes the central bank), assets and liabilities held by the nonfinancial public sector, for which the counterpart is the central bank, are not netted out in debt figures. Capitalization bonds issued in the past by the government to the central bank are now part of the nonfinancial public sector debt. - Venezuela: - Historical series have been revised to incorporate official data where this has been made available, particularly for the balance of payments and national accounts at the aggregate level. - Nominal GDP in U.S. dollars is derived by converting local-currency GDP using staff estimates of a representative exchange rate reflecting the official and parallel market rates. - Fiscal accounts are estimated by staff from 2018 onward and cover the budgetary central government, public enterprises (including Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A.), the Instituto Venezolano de los Seguros Sociales (IVSS), and the Fondo de Garantía de Depósitos y Protección Bancaria (FOGADE). - Estimates of public debt are not published due to market sensitivity considerations. - West Bank and Gaza: - Estimates and projections for 2026–31 are excluded from publication owing to the unusually high degree of uncertainty. - The latest actual annual data for consumer prices, population, and government finances are for 2025. - Annual data for the unemployment rate are available up to 2022. - Yemen: - The revised data reflect the territory under control of the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG). - Zimbabwe: - The Zimbabwe authorities redenominated their national accounts statistics mid-2025 following the introduction on April 5, 2024, of a new national currency, the Zimbabwe gold, replacing the Zimbabwe dollar. - The use of the Zimbabwe dollar ceased on April 30, 2024. ### Classification of economies — overview and group definitions - Summary of the Economy Classification: - The economy classification in the WEO divides the world into two major groups: advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies. This classification is not based on strict criteria, economic or otherwise, and has evolved over time. The objective is to facilitate analysis by providing a reasonably meaningful method of organizing data. - Some economies remain outside the classification and therefore are not included in the analysis. Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea are examples of economies that are not IMF members, and the IMF therefore does not monitor them. - Advanced Economies: - Online Table B lists the 43 advanced economies. - The seven largest in terms of GDP based on market exchange rates—the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies, often referred to as the Group of Seven. - Composite data shown in the tables for the euro area cover the current members for all years, even though the membership has increased over time. - Emerging Market and Developing Economies: - The group of emerging market and developing economies (154) comprises all those that are not classified as advanced economies. - Regional breakdowns: emerging and developing Asia; emerging and developing Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; Middle East and Central Asia (which comprises the regional subgroups Caucasus and Central Asia; and Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan); and sub-Saharan Africa. - Analytical classification by source of export earnings distinguishes fuel (SITC 3) and nonfuel, then focuses on nonfuel primary products (SITCs 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68). Economies are categorized into one of these groups if their main source of export earnings exceeded 50 percent of total exports on average between 2021 and 2025. - Income-based groups: - Low-income developing countries (LIDCs) are countries that have per capita income levels below a certain threshold (based on $2,700 in 2017 as measured by the World Bank’s Atlas method and updated following new information in early 2024), structural features consistent with limited development and structural transformation, and external financial linkages insufficiently close for them to be widely seen as emerging market economies. - Emerging market and middle-income economies (EMMIEs) are emerging market and developing economies not classified as LIDCs. ### Key statistics from Online Table A (2025) - Advanced Economies: - Number of Economies: 43 - gDP: 100.0 (advanced Economies) ; World share: 39.5 - Exports of goods and services: 100.0 ; World share: 61.2 - Population: 100.0 ; World share: 13.9 - United states: - gDP: 37.1 ; World share: 14.6 - Exports of goods and services: 16.1 ; World share: 9.9 - Population: 30.7 ; World share: 4.3 - Euro area: - gDP: 21 ; World share: 29.0 ; Exports: 11.4 ; World share: 21.2 ; Population: 32.2 ; World share: 4.5 - Japan: - gDP: 8.5 ; World share: 3.3 ; Exports: 4.6 ; World share: 2.8 ; Population: 11.1 ; World share: 1.5 - Major advanced Economies (memorandum): - 77 1.9 28.4 48.5 29.7 70.8 9.8 - Emerging Market and Developing Economies (Regional aggregates, 2025): - Number of Economies: 154 - gDP: 100.0 ; World share: 60.5 - Exports of goods and services: 100.0 ; World share: 38.8 - Population: 100.0 ; World share: 86.1 - Emerging and Developing asia: - Number of Economies: 30 - gDP: 57.5 ; World share: 34.8 - Exports: 51.0 ; World share: 19.8 - Population: 54.9 ; World share: 47.3 - China: - gDP: 32.3 ; World share: 19.6 - Exports: 30.6 ; World share: 11.9 - Population: 20.3 ; World share: 17.5 - India: - gDP: 13.6 ; World share: 8.2 - Exports: 6.4 ; World share: 2.5 - Population: 21.2 ; World share: 18.2 - Analytical groups by source of export earnings (2021–25 average criterion): - Fuel: 25 economies ; gDP share: 10.3 ; World exports share: 6.3 ; Emerging Market and Developing Economies exports share: 15.6 ; World population share: 6.0 ; Emerging share: 9.5 ; World population share: 8.2 - Nonfuel: 128 economies ; gDP share: 89.7 ; World share: 54.4 ; Exports share: 84.4 ; World share: 32.8 ; Population share: 90.5 ; World share: 78.0 - Of which, Primary Products: 35 economies ; gDP share: 3.6 ; World share: 2.2 ; Exports share: 4.6 ; World share: 1.8 ; Population share: 9.0 ; World share: 7.8 - Other group counts: - Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: 95 ; gDP share: 92.5 ; World share: 56.0 ; Exports share: 95.5 ; World share: 37.1 ; Population share: 76.8 ; World share: 66.1 - Low-Income Developing Countries: 58 ; gDP share: 7.5 ; World share: 4.6 ; Exports share: 4.5 ; World share: 1.7 ; Population share: 23.2 ; World share: 20.0 ### Exceptional reporting periods and key documentation notes - Online Table F lists economies with exceptional reporting periods (examples include Afghanistan apr/Mar for national accounts and government finance; Bangladesh Jul/Jun for national accounts and Jul/Jun for government finance; India apr/Mar for both national accounts and prices). - Online Table G provides key data documentation including national accounts historical data sources, latest actual annual data, base years, system of national accounts, and use of chain-weighted methodology for each economy (examples: Afghanistan NsO 2024/25 base year 2016 SNA 2008; Albania IMF staff 2025 base year 2020 ESA 2010). *Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook: Online Statistical Appendix (Section 2).* ### Section 3 ### Online Table G. Key Data Documentation (continued — Section 3) ### Structure and fields covered - The table provides country-level metadata for: National accounts; Prices (CPI); Government finance; Balance of Payments. - Fields shown (as labeled in the source) include: - historical Data source - Latest actual annual Data - Base Year - system of National accounts - Use of Chain-Weighted Methodology - accounting Practice at subsectors Coverage - historical Data source (for CPI) - Latest actual annual Data (for CPI) - Entries preserve country-specific fiscal and statistical source attributions and classification codes (for example, "MoF", "NsO", "CB", "IMF staff", "MEP") and standard frameworks (for example, "sNa 2008", "Esa 2010", "BPM 6"). ### Representative country entries and exact source lines (verbatim) - afghanistanMoF2025/262001CgCCB2024/25BPM 6 - australiaMoF20252014Cg,sg,LgaNsO2025BPM 6 - austriaNsO20242014Cg,sg,Lg,ssaCB2024BPM 6 - ChinaMoF2025. . .Cg,Lg,ssCgaD2025BPM 6 - IndiaIndian rupeeNsO2025/262022/23sNa 2008NsO2025/26 - JapanJapanese yenOther20252020sNa 2008From 1980Other2025 - United statesUs dollarNsO20252017sNa 2008From 1980NsO2025 ### Selected government finance / balance of payments source lines (verbatim) - Costa RicaOther20251986Cg,NFPCCCB2025BPM 6 - EgyptMoF2024/25. . .Cg,Lg,ss,NFPCCCB2024/25BPM 5 - MexicoMoF20252014Cg,ss,NFPCCCB2025BPM 6 - PeruMoF20252001Cg,sg,Lg,ssCCB2025BPM 5 - RussiaMoF20252014Cg,sg,ss. . .CB2025BPM 6 - Saudi arabiaMoF20252014CgCCB2025BPM 6 - United KingdomNsO20252024Esa 2010From 1980NsO2025BPM 6 ### Selected national accounts / CPI source lines (verbatim) - DenmarkDanish kroneNsO20252020Esa 2010From 1980NsO2025 - FinlandEuroNsO20252015Esa 2010From 1980NsO2025 - Korea south Korean wonCB20252020sNa 2008From before 1980 NsO2025 - NetherlandsEuroNsO20252021Esa 2010From 1980NsO2025 - NorwayNorwegian kroneNsO20252023Esa 2010From 1980NsO2025 - Swedenswedish kronaNsO20252025Esa 2010From 1993NsO2025 - ZimbabweZimbabwe goldNsO20252025sNa 2008NsO2025 *International Monetary Fund — Online Table G, Key Data Documentation (continued).* ### Section 4 ### statsappendix - Section 4 ### Country reporting metadata and classifications - Countries and reporting authorities listed with exact source codes (examples extracted as presented): - Vincent and the grenadines — MoF20252001CgCCB2025BPM 6 - sudan — MoF20212001CgMixedCB2021BPM 6 - suriname — MoF20251986CgMixedCB2025BPM 6 - sweden — MoF20252014Cg,Lg,ssaNsO2025BPM 6 - switzerland — MoF20252001Cg,sg,Lg,ssaCB2025BPM 6 - syria — MoF20091986CgCCB2009BPM 5 - Taiwan Province of China — MoF20252001Cg,LgCCB2025BPM 6 - Tajikistan — MoF20251986Cg,Lg,ssCCB2025BPM 6 - Tanzania — MoF20231986Cg,LgCCB2023BPM 6 - Thailand — MoF2024/252014Cg,Lg,ssaCB2025BPM 6 - Timor-Leste — MoF20242001CgCCB2024BPM 6 - Togo — MoF20251986CgCCB2024BPM 6 - Tonga — MoF2024/252014CgCCB2023/24BPM 6 - Trinidad and Tobago — MoF2024/251986CgCCB2025BPM 6 - Tunisia — MoF20251986CgCCB2025BPM 6 - Türkiye — MoF20252001Cg,Lg,ssaCB2025BPM 6 - Turkmenistan — MoF20251986Cg,LgCNsO2025BPM 6 - Tuvalu — MoF2025. . .CgCIMF staff2023BPM 6 - Uganda — MoF20252001CgCCB2025BPM 6 - Ukraine — MoF20252001Cg,Lg,ssCCB2025BPM 6 - United arab Emirates — MoF20252014Cg,sg,ssMixedCB2025BPM 6 - United Kingdom — NsO20252014Cg,LgaNsO2025BPM 6 - United states — Other20252014Cg,sg,LgaNsO2025BPM 6 - Uruguay — MoF20251986Cg,Lg,ssCCB2025BPM 6 - Uzbekistan — MoF20252014Cg,sg,Lg,ssCCB2025BPM 6 - Vanuatu — MoF20252001CgCCB2024BPM 6 - Venezuela — MoF20172001NFPC,otherCCB2025BPM 6 - Vietnam — MoF20252001Cg,sg,LgCCB2025BPM 6 - West Bank and gaza — MoF20252001CgMixedNsO2025BPM 6 - Yemen — MoF20252001Cg,LgCIMF staff2024BPM 6 - Zambia — MoF20251986CgCCB2024BPM 6 - Zimbabwe — MoF20251986CgCCB and MoF2025BPM 6 - Abbreviations and definitions provided (verbatim): - "Note: BPM = Balance of Payments Manual; CPI = consumer price index; Esa = European system of National accounts; saR = special administrative Region; sNa = system of National accounts." - "1 CB = central bank; gaD = general administration Department; MEP = Ministry of Economy, Planning, Commerce, and/or Development; MoF = Ministry of Finance and/or Treasury; NsO = National statistics Office." - "2 National accounts base year is the period with which other periods are compared and the period for which prices appear in the denominators of the price relationships used to calculate the index." - "3 Use of chain-weighted methodology allows countries to measure gDP growth more accurately by reducing or eliminating the downward biases in volume series built on index numbers that average volume components using weights from a year in the moderately distant past." - "4 Cg = central government; Lg = local government; MPC = monetary public corporation, including central bank; NFPC = nonfinancial public corporation; sg = state government; ss = social security fund." - "5 accounting practice: a = accrual accounting; C = cash accounting; CB = commitments basis accounting; Mixed = combination of accrual and cash accounting." - "6 Base year deflator is not equal to 100 because the nominal gDP is not measured in the same way as real gDP or the data are seasonally adjusted." ### Online Box A1 — Fiscal policy assumptions (overview) - General methodology: - Short-term fiscal policy assumptions are normally based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns. - When no official budget has been announced, projections incorporate policy measures judged likely to be implemented. - Medium-term fiscal projections are based on a judgment about policies’ most likely path. - Where IMF staff has insufficient information, "an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed unless indicated otherwise." - Reference to additional online data: - "See also Online Tables B5 through B9 in the Online Statistical Appendix for data on fiscal net lending/borrowing and structural balances." - Structural balance computation note (verbatim): - "The output gap is actual minus potential output, as a percentage of potential output. Structural balances are expressed as a percentage of potential output. The structural balance is the actual net lending/borrowing minus the effects of cyclical output from potential output, corrected for one-time and other factors, such as asset and commodity prices and output composition effects. Changes in the structural balance consequently include effects of temporary fiscal measures, the impact of fluctuations in interest rates and debt-service costs, and other noncyclical fluctua-tions in net lending/borrowing. The computations of structural balances are based on the IMF staff ’s estimates of potential GDP and revenue and expenditure elasticities. (See Annex I of the October 1993 World Economic Outlook.) Estimates of the output gap and of the structural balance are subject to significant mar-gins of uncertainty. Net debt is calculated as gross debt minus financial assets corresponding to debt instruments." ### Online Box A1 — Country-specific fiscal assumptions (selected excerpts) - Argentina: - "Fiscal projections are based on the available information regarding budget outturn, budget plans, and IMF-supported program targets for the federal government; on fiscal measures announced by the authorities; and on the IMF staff ’s macroeconomic projections." - Australia: - "Fiscal projections are based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the FY2026/27 budgets published by the Commonwealth Government and the FY2026/27 budgets published by the state/territory governments, and the IMF staff ’s estimates and projections." - Austria: - "The IMF staff ’s fiscal projections are based on the authorities’ latest medium-term plans, adjusted to reflect the IMF staff ’s macroeconomic assumptions and assuming some moderate expenditure restraint over the medium term in line with historical patterns." - Belgium: - "Projections are based on the 2026 Budgetary Plan, the Belgian Monitoring Committee’s reports, and other available information on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for the IMF staff ’s assumptions." - Brazil: - "Fiscal projections reflect current and expected policies." - Canada: - "Projections use the baseline forecasts from the Spring Economic Update 2026 and the latest provincial budget updates. IMF staff make some adjustments to these forecasts, including those for differences in macroeconomic projections. The IMF staff ’s forecast also incorporates the most recent data releases from Statistics Canada’s National Economic Accounts, including quarterly federal, provincial, and territorial budgetary outturns." - Chile: - "Fiscal projections are based on the authorities’ budget projections, adjusted to reflect the IMF staff ’s macroeconomic projections." - China: - "The IMF staff ’s fiscal projections incorporate the 2026 budget as well as estimates of off-budget financing." - Colombia: - "Fiscal projections are anchored in the authorities’ envisaged adjustment path and incorporate IMF staff ’s macroeconomic assumptions." - Denmark: - "Estimates for the current year are aligned with the latest official budget numbers, adjusted where appropriate for the IMF staff ’s macroeconomic assumptions. Beyond the current year, the projections incorporate key features of the medium-term fiscal plan as embodied in the authorities’ latest budget. Structural balances are net of temporary fluctuations in some revenues (for example, North Sea revenue, pension yield tax revenue) and one-offs (COVID-19–related one-offs are, however, included)." - France: - "Projections for 2027 onward are based on the measures in the authorities’ 2023–27 multiannual budget programming bill and fiscal plans, adjusted for differences in assumptions on macroeconomic and financial variables and consistent with the 0.5 percent of GDP minimum structural adjustment under the EU’s Excessive Deficit Procedure." - Germany: - "Fiscal projections are based on the IMF staff ’s macroeconomic framework and assume a gradual increase in infrastructure and defense spending over the medium term, in line with the authorities’ stated intentions. The projections also assume that additional fiscal room generated by reforms to Germany’s fiscal rule (the “debt brake”) in March 2025 is mostly used." - Greece: - "Data since 2010 reflect adjustments in line with the primary balance definition under the enhanced surveillance framework for Greece." - Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: - "Projections are based on the authorities’ medium-term fiscal projections for expenditures." - Hungary: - "Fiscal projections include the IMF staff ’s projections for the macroeconomic framework and fiscal policy plans announced in the 2026 budget." - India: - "Projections are based on available information on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for the IMF staff ’s assumptions. General government data covers only central and state governments. State government data are incorporated with a lag of up to two years; general government data are thus finalized well after central government data. IMF and Indian presentations differ, particularly regarding disinvestment and license auction proceeds, net versus gross recording of revenues in certain minor categories, and some public sector lending. Starting with FY2020/21 data, expenditure also includes the off-budget component of food subsidies, consistent with the revised treatment of food subsidies in the budget. In FY2020/21 the IMF staff adjusted expenditure to take out payments for FY2019/20 food subsidies, which FY2020/21 official figures include." - Indonesia: - "The IMF staff ’s projections are based on the latest budget, extrapolating using projected nominal GDP (and its components as needed) with application of judgment to reflect the authorities’ spending and revenue policies over the medium term." - Ireland: - "Fiscal projections are based on the country’s Budget 2026." - Israel: - "Fiscal projections are for the general government and take into account the draft 2026 budget approved by the Knesset in the first reading on March 17, 2026." - Italy: - "The IMF staff ’s estimates and projections are informed by the Draft Budgetary Plan 2026, the Public Finance Document April 2026, the fiscal plans included in the government’s Medium-Term Fiscal–Structural Plan 2025–2029, and adjusted to reflect the IMF staff ’s macroeconomic assumptions. Historical fiscal data reflect the official published series as of September 21, 2026." - Japan: - "The projections reflect fiscal measures the government has already announced, with adjustments for the IMF staff ’s assumptions." - Korea: - "The forecast incorporates the authorities’ annual budget, any supplementary budget, any proposed new budget, the medium-term fiscal plan, and the IMF staff ’s estimates." - Mexico: - "The 2020 public sector borrowing requirements estimated by the IMF staff adjust for some statistical discrepancies between above-the-line and below-the-line numbers. Fiscal projections for 2026 are informed by the estimates in Criterios 2026; projections for 2026 onward assume continued compliance with rules established in the Federal Budget and Fiscal Responsibility Law." - The Netherlands: - "Fiscal projections are IMF staff forecasts based on the 2026 coalition agreement policies and the 2026 Spring Memorandum." - New Zealand: - "Fiscal projections are based on the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2026 (May 2026) and the IMF staff ’s estimates." - Portugal: - "The projections for the current year are based on the authorities’ approved budget, adjusted to reflect the IMF staff ’s macroeconomic forecast. Projections thereafter are based on the assumption of unchanged policies. Projections for 2026 reflect information available in the 2026 budget proposal." - Puerto Rico: - "Fiscal projections are informed by the second revised 2024 Commonwealth Fiscal Plan for Puerto Rico, as certified by the Financial Oversight and Management Board on June 19, 2026." - Russia (policy rule chronology and parameter values, verbatim): - "The fiscal rule was suspended in March 2022 following the imposition of sanctions after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, allowing windfall oil and gas revenues and accumulated National Welfare Fund savings to finance higher spending. The 2023–2026 budget introduced a modified rule with a transition period during which benchmark oil and gas revenues and the permitted primary deficit were set in rubles. Benchmark oil and gas revenues were initially fixed at Rub 8 trillion, broadly corresponding to an oil price of $60 per barrel, compared with a benchmark of about $40 per barrel under the pre-war rule. During the transition in 2023–24, deficits above those implied by the rule were financed through previously accumulated windfall revenues and other sources. From 2025, the authorities reverted to a full-fledged oil-price-based rule, under which expenditure is capped at non-oil revenues plus oil and gas revenues calculated at the benchmark price and interest payments, with revenues above the benchmark saved in the National Welfare Fund and shortfalls financed from it. The benchmark was set at $60 per barrel in 2024–25 and $59 in 2026, although the government was authorized to exceed the rule-implied expenditure ceiling in 2026. Under the 2027–29 budget, the benchmark is lowered to $50 per barrel, while temporary spending above the rule-implied level and a non-zero primary deficit are permitted before a return to a zero structural primary deficit in 2029." - Saudi Arabia: - "The IMF staff ’s baseline fiscal projections are based on its understanding of government policies and available fiscal data. Export oil revenues are based on WEO baseline assumptions for oil prices and output, consistent with assumptions regarding the normalization of maritime traffic." - Singapore: - "FY2025 projections are based on revised figures based on budget execution through the end of 2025. FY2026 projections are based on the budget released on February 12, 2026." - South Africa: - "Fiscal assumptions are informed by the 2026 budget. Nontax revenue excludes transactions in financial assets and liabilities, as they involve primarily revenues associated with the realized exchange rate valuation gains from the holding of foreign currency deposits, sale of assets, and conceptually similar items. The Eskom debt relief is treated as capital transfer above-the-line item." - Spain: - "Figures for 2021–28 reflect disbursements of grants and loans under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility." - Sweden: - "Fiscal estimates for 2025 are based on the authorities’ budget bill and have been updated with the authorities’ latest interim forecast. The impact of cyclical developments on the fiscal accounts is calculated using the 2014 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development study to take into account the output gap." - Switzerland: - "The projections assume that fiscal policy is adjusted as necessary to keep fiscal balances in line with the requirements of Switzerland’s fiscal rules." - Türkiye: - "The basis for the projections is the IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some revenue and expenditure items that are included in the authorities’ headline balance." - United Kingdom: - "Fiscal projections are based on the March 2026 forecast of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the March 2026 release on public sector finances from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The IMF staff ’s projections take the OBR forecast as a reference and overlay adjustments for differences in assumptions. Data are presented on a calendar year basis." - United States: - "Fiscal projections are based on the February 2026 Congressional Budget Office baseline, adjusted for the IMF staff ’s policy and macroeconomic assumptions." ### Online Box A1 — Monetary policy assumptions (overview) - General statement: - "Monetary policy assumptions are based on the established policy framework in each economy. In most cases, this implies a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle: Official interest rates will increase when economic indicators suggest that inflation will rise above its acceptable rate or range; they will decrease when indicators suggest that inflation will not exceed the acceptable rate or range, that output growth is below its potential rate, and that the margin of slack in the economy is significant. With regard to interest rates, please refer to the “Assumptions” section at the beginning of the Online Statistical Appendix." - Country-specific monetary assumptions (selected excerpts): - Argentina: "Monetary projections are consistent with the overall macroeconomic framework, the fiscal and financing plans, and the monetary and foreign exchange policies." - Australia: "Monetary policy assumptions are based on the IMF staff ’s analysis and the expected inflation path." - Brazil: "Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with the convergence of inflation to target." - Canada: "Projections reflect the gradual unwinding of monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Canada as inflation slowly returns to its midrange target of 2 percent by the end of 2026." - Chile: "Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with attaining the inflation target." - China: "Monetary policy assumptions incorporate a continued modestly accommodative policy stance." - Denmark: "Monetary policy is to maintain the peg to the euro." - Euro area: "Monetary policy assumptions for euro area member countries are drawn from a suite of models (semi-structural, DSGE [dynamic stochastic general equilibrium], Taylor rule), market expectations, and European Central Bank Governing Council communications." - Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: "The IMF staff assumes that the currency board system will remain intact." - Hungary: "The IMF staff ’s estimates and projections are informed by expert judgment based on recent developments." - India: "Monetary policy projections are consistent with achieving the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation target over the medium term." - Indonesia: "Monetary policy assumptions are in line with inflation within the central bank’s target band over the medium term." - Israel: "Monetary policy assumptions are based on the IMF staff ’s assessment of the most likely path for interest rates, considering the broader macro-economic outlook, the Bank of Israel’s inflation forecasts, and market expectations." - Japan: "Monetary policy assumptions are based on the IMF staff ’s assessment of the most likely path for interest rates, considering the broader macroeconomic outlook, the Bank of Japan’s communications, and market expectations." - Korea: "Projections assume that the policy rate will evolve in line with the Bank of Korea’s forward guidance." - Mexico: "Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with inflation converging to the central bank’s target over the projection period." - New Zealand: "Monetary policy projections are based on the IMF staff ’s analysis and expected inflation path." - Russia: "Monetary policy projections assume that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is adopting a tight monetary policy stance." - Saudi Arabia: "Monetary policy projections are based on the continuation of the exchange rate peg to the US dollar." - Singapore: "Broad money is projected to grow in line with the projected growth in nominal GDP." - South Africa: "Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with maintaining inflation at a 3 percent target with a ±1 percentage point tolerance band over the medium term." - Sweden: "Monetary policy assumptions are based on IMF staff estimates." - Switzerland: "Monetary policy assumptions are based on the IMF staff ’s assessment of the most likely path for interest rates, considering the broader macroeconomic outlook, the Swiss National Bank’s inflation forecasts, and market expectations." *International Monetary Fund | October 2026* ### Section 5 ### Section 5 ### Türkiye - The baseline assumes that the monetary policy stance will remain contractionary in line with announced and observed policies. ### United Kingdom - Monetary policy assumptions are based on the IMF staff ’s assessment of the most likely path for interest rates, considering the broader macroeconomic outlook, model results, the Bank of England’s inflation forecasts and communications, and market expectations. ### United States - The IMF staff expects the Federal Open Market Committee to continue to adjust the federal funds target rate in line with the broader macroeconomic outlook. --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/october/english/statsappendix.pdf_