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### Macroeconomic and development context
- Real per capita GDP tripled between 1990 and 2015.
- Per-capita GDP increased 10-fold.
- Poverty rate (living from below USD 1.90 per day) fell from more than 60 percent in the 1980s to below 5 percent of the population now.
- Degree of openness (sum of exports and imports): around 200 percent of GDP.
- FDI inflows peaked at 10 percent of GDP in 1996 and 9 percent in 2008.
- Electricity production per capita: 1896 kWh in 2016; growth rate about 10.3 percent annually during 2011–2016 (GSO).
- Government capital spending averaged almost 8 percent of GDP annually over the past decade; SOE investment about 5 percent of GDP annually.

### Structural transformation and service delivery
- Agriculture share in GDP: fell from over 40 percent in late 1980s to less than 15 percent today.
- Employment shift: agriculture share of labor force declined to 40 percent by 2017; services reached 34 percent.
- Urban population: fewer than 13 million in 1986 and more than 30 million in recent years.
- Number of fully state-owned enterprises fell from over 12,000 in 1989 to fewer than 600 in 2016.
- Local authorities execute over half of total government spending (17 out of the 30 percent of GDP in 2016).

### Education — outcomes, spending, and 2030 implications
Findings and status
- Public general government budget earmarks 20 percent of budget expenditure for education and training each year (noting the number has not always been reached).
- Public education expenditure rose from 3.5 percent in 2000 to 6 percent in 2015.
- Literacy rate (age 15 or over): 95 percent in 2016.
- 92 percent of 3 to 5-year old children attend kindergarten.
- 99 percent of primary school aged children enrolled in school; 99.7 percent completing primary education in 2016-2017.
- Student-teacher ratio fell from 35 in 1995 to 20 today.

Selected 2030 projections and reference statistics (preserve source table values)
- Total Education Spending (2017 Estimates) A: 6.7 percent of GDP.
- Budget Provision (2017 Estimates) B: 5.3 percent of GDP.
- Total Spending Needs (2030) C: 5.7 percent of GDP.
- Total Public Spending Needs (2030) D: 4.8 percent of GDP.
- Additional Total Spending Needs (2030) E = C − A: 0.
- Teacher statistics and fiscal indicators (selected): Teachers per 100 students Vietnam Latest 5.4; Student to teacher ratio Vietnam Latest 18; Average teacher salary (current USD) Vietnam Latest 4584; Total Education Spending (% of GDP) Vietnam Latest 6.7%; Vietnam 2030 5.7%.

Policy notes
- Education remains a top priority; the policy envisaging 20 percent of total budget spending earmarked for education likely to persist.
- Resolution 104 (early August 2018) waived tuition fees for 5-year old pre-school and lower public secondary students — increasing public share in education spending.
- If Decision 2161 of MOET implemented reduced student-teacher ratios (pre-primary 15, primary 20, secondary 22), fiscal space could be reallocated to targeted initiatives.

### Health — outcomes, costing framework, and scenarios
Findings and outcomes
- Maternal mortality rate declined by 75 percent between 1990 and 2015.
- New tuberculosis cases per 100,000: 375 in 2000 to 130 in 2017.
- Immunization reached close to 100 percent after Doi Moi; 90 percent by 1990.
- 90 percent of births attended by a skilled health worker.
- Access to essential health services: 73 percent of the population.
- Health insurance coverage: 87 percent in 2018.
- Total health spending: around 5 percent of GDP in early years after Doi Moi; per capita health expenditure has been growing rapidly.

Costing framework and reference “good performer” benchmarks
- Good performer median (GDP per capita between $4,000 and $10,000; SDG3 score 80–100):
  - Doctors per 1,000 population: 2.3
  - Doctor wages: $27,024
  - Capital spending: 2.2 percent of total health expenditure
  - Spending: $404 per person or 6.7 percent of GDP

Vietnam 2030 scenarios (preserve numeric source values)
- If Vietnam matches median good performer:
  - Total health spending increase from 5.4 to 6.9 percent of GDP ($321/capita).
  - Doctors per 1,000 population: 2.3 (4 times more than the most recent value).
  - Doctors paid average salary of 4.8 times GDP/capita.
  - Public-sector share increase: total public health spending would increase by 1.5 percent of GDP; public share increasing by 1.4 percent.
- Vietnam public plan alternative (MoH Decision 3929):
  - Target doctors: 1.1 per 1,000 population.
  - Total health spending almost constant at 5.5 percent of GDP.
  - Public share increases by 0.6 percent of GDP to 3.3 percent of GDP.
- Conservative financing assumption used subsequently:
  - Increase of 1 percent of GDP for public health spending.
  - Increase of 0.8 percent of GDP for total health spending.

Selected table statistics (preserve exact values)
- Doctors per 1000 population: Peers 1.6; Good Performer 2.3; Vietnam Latest 0.8; Vietnam 2030 Plans 1.1; Vietnam 2030 Good Performer Comparison 2.3.
- Total health spending to GDP (%): Peers 6.4%; Good Performer 6.7%; Vietnam Latest 5.4%; Vietnam 2030 Plans 5.5%; Vietnam 2030 Good Performer Comparison 6.9%.
- Spending per capita (current USD): Peers 399.1; Good Performer 404.4; Vietnam Latest 119.8; Vietnam 2030 Plans 254.3; Vietnam 2030 Good Performer Comparison 321.0.
- Public Spending (% of total): Peers 59.4; Good Performer 59.5; Vietnam Latest 49.6; Vietnam 2030 Plans 59.5; Vietnam 2030 Good Performer Comparison 59.5.

### Water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) — needs to 2030
Main finding
- Annual cost to provide safe water to all households and end open defecation: 1.1 percent of 2017 GDP per year (WASH model result).

Drivers and figures (preserve table values)
- Predominant driver: expand safely managed water supply; fragmentation in remote areas raises costs.
- Unofficial government estimate: current spending on water about 0.6 percent of GDP.
- Predicted additional spending needs until 2030: about VND 300 trillion (6 percent of 2017 GDP).
- World Bank Global WASH Cost table excerpt (million USD and percent of 2017 GDP):
  - Total cost (million USD) — Water 16; Sanitation 1,249; Hygiene 2,581; Water (other?) 56; Sanitation 15,693; Total 30,308.
  - Annual cost (million USD) — Water 1; Sanitation 96; Hygiene 199; Water (other?) 4; Sanitation 1,207; Total 2,331.
  - Annual cost (percent of 2017 GDP) — Water 0.0%; Sanitation 0.0%; Hygiene 0.1%; Water (other?) 0.0%; Sanitation 0.5%; Total 1.1%.

Policy and financing notes
- Private sector participation encouraged in high density areas with preferential land access and loan subsidies.
- Donor assistance targeted to fragmented, remote areas; ODA remains important for rural water.

### Electricity — capacity, financing, and 2030 cost implications
Context and performance
- Transmission and distribution losses at or close to best-practice international standards; collection rates almost 100 percent.
- Rural household electrification: below 50 percent in 1990 to almost 100 percent today; by early 2018, 99.9 percent of communes and 99 percent of rural households connected.
- EVN established in 1995 and largely self-financing; USD 8 billion annual investment historically executed primarily through EVN.
- Electricity production per capita: 1896 kWh in 2016; EVN produced more than 2200 kWh per capita in 2018.

Costing approach and Vietnam-specific projection
- Unit cost assumption for generation capacity: $2,258 per kW (including network cost).
- Components:
  1. INV1: extend coverage to 100 percent while maintaining initial consumption.
  2. INV2: elevate consumption per user to a higher benchmark.
- Vietnam specifics:
  - Full access nearly reached; main need is capacity for rising per capita consumption.
  - Per capita consumption expected to grow 8 percent per year on average until 2030 (Danish Energy Agency 2017).
  - Resulting additional cost: 3.3 percent of GDP per year to reach universal access and target consumption.

Selected table figures (preserve numeric strings)
- Electricity consumption per user at starting period (kwh): 1,866.
- (A) Annual cost to reach universal access while maintaining initial consumption: 357,377,537 (As percent of GDP at starting period 0.2%).
- Additional annual cost to reach target consumption: 6,555,758,403 (As percent of GDP at starting period 3.2%).
- (C) Annual cost to reach universal access and target consumption: 6,913,135,939.77 (As percent of GDP at starting period 3.3%).

Risks and constraints
- Low tariffs to ensure social equity mean most of EVN’s capital spending financed through debt, primarily in foreign currency — increasing sustainability risks and FX exposure.
- Current generation and transmission operations near capacity limits.
- Share of renewable energy still small; coal production increasing rapidly with air quality and health impacts.

### Roads — expansion, unit costs, and maintenance needs
Approach and assumptions
- Road density target derived from regression on GDP per capita, population density, sector shares, urbanization, and Rural Access Index (RAI).
- RAI assumed today 90%; target 95% by 2030, implying additional 68,646.25 km of roads.
- Unit cost assumptions:
  - Two-lane paved road: $1,000,000 per km (note IMF 2019 two-way paved road estimate USD 500,000 per km; Vietnam-specific unit set at $1,000,000).
  - Highway unit cost: $6,400,000 per km.
- Ministry of Transport targets expressways between 6,400 and 7,000 km total by 2030; approximately 5,500 km new highway construction estimated.

Selected cost figures (preserve table values)
- Today population: 93,456,712; 2030 population: 103,117,320.
- Area (Sq Km): 331,230.
- Km Roads today: 280,547; Km Roads 2030: 349,193.
- New Roads Additional Km Needed: 68,646.25.
- Total Cost: 98,346,246,547.17.
- Annual Cost New Roads: 7,565,095,888 (Percent of GDP 3.7%).
- Average annual maintenance cost (depreciation rate 5.00%): 1,584,144,151 (Percent of GDP 0.8%).
- Total annual cost (New plus Maintenance): 9,149,240,039 (Percent of GDP 4.4%).

Conclusion for roads
- New construction requires about 3.7 percent of GDP additional spending per year; with depreciation and maintenance total needs estimated at 4.4 percent of GDP per year.

### Aggregate additional spending needs to 2030 and public share
- Total additional spending needs across the five costed subsectors (education, health, roads, electricity, water) estimated at 7 percent of GDP by 2030.
- Share of public sector spending (excluding SOEs) approximated at around 4.7 percent of GDP.
- Table 6 (selected percent of GDP values, preserve exact numbers):
  - Education (by 2030): A 6.7; B 5.3; C 5.7; D 4.8; E 0; F 0.
  - Health (by 2030): A 5.4; B 2.7; C 6.2; D 3.7; E 0.8; F 1.
  - Roads (annual): B 1.5; C 4.4; D 3.5; E 2.9; F 2.
  - Electricity (annual): B 0.5; C 3.3; D 1.8; E 2.8; F 1.3.
  - Water (annual): B 0.6; C 1.1; D 1; E 0.5; F 0.4.
  - Total (vertical sum): A 10.6; B 20.7; C 14.8; D 7.0; E 4.7.

### Medium-term financing strategy — constraints and options
Fiscal and financing constraints
- Public debt (2018, GSF classification): 55.6 percent of GDP; statutory debt limit: 65 percent of GDP.
- Government signaled breaching debt limit will not be an option.
- General Government Revenues: 24.5 percent of GDP; Tax Revenue: 18.5 percent of GDP.
- ODA declining after Vietnam’s 2010 graduation to lower middle-income status; mobilizing additional concessional funding will be difficult.

Financing options and institutional reforms
- Increase private sector participation (domestic and foreign), including PPPs, especially in roads and electricity; EVN expected to implement most electricity investments.
- ODA to remain important for sectors with high donor role (notably rural water).
- Efficiency gains in public investment management (PIM) could free resources; recent reforms include Public Investment Law (2019) and PPP framework revisions.
- Government requirement to reduce public-sector staff headcount by 10 percent by 2020 aimed to create fiscal space.

Climate and green growth
- Vietnam highly affected by climate change and natural disasters; Green Growth Strategy and Action Plan to influence SDG implementation.
- MOF improving policies on environmental protection charges for wastewater and emissions.

### Conclusions and policy implications
Key conclusions
- Achieving remaining SDGs in the five costed sectors is challenging: total additional spending needs estimated at 7 percent of GDP by 2030; public sector share about 4.7 percent of GDP.
- Only 5 of 17 SDG goals were costed; overall public spending needs likely to be larger.

Principal policy levers (as presented in the source)
- Increase tax revenue (current revenue-to-GDP 24.5 percent), recognizing limited near-term prospects for large increases.
- Rationalize spending and secure efficiency gains in public investment and recurrent spending.
- Mobilize private sector financing and PPPs; maintain a supporting legal and regulatory environment.
- Sustain targeted ODA for sectors where donor role remains critical (notably rural water).
- Strengthen PIM and PPP frameworks; implement public-sector reforms to free fiscal space.
- Prioritize green growth and climate adaptation in project selection and financing.

Uncertainties and caveats
- Estimates are indicative: subject to uncertainties due to lack of official spending plans beyond 2020, target ambiguities, data limitations, and uncertainty about private sector participation scale and timing.

*Source: IMF staff estimates and analysis — wpiea2020031-print-pdf (excerpt provided).*

### 10. Additional 2030 Public and Total Spending Needs _______________________________________ 26

### 10. Additional 2030 Public and Total Spending Needs

### Key development outcomes and macroeconomic indicators
- Real per capita GDP tripled between 1990 and 2015.
- Per-capita GDP increased 10-fold.
- The poverty rate (living from below USD 1.90 per day) has fallen from more than 60 percent in the 1980s to below 5 percent of the population now.
- Vietnam ranks in the top quarter of SDG performance across emerging market economies for the majority of indicators (Figures referenced).
- Access to essential health services: 73 percent of Vietnam’s population.
- Health insurance coverage: 86.4 percent in 2017.
- Electricity production per capita was 1896 kWh in 2016, and its growth rate about 10.3 percent annually during 2011–2016 (GSO).
- Government capital spending has averaged almost 8 percent of GDP annually over the past decade.
- State-owned enterprises (SOEs), including large infrastructure providers, have invested about 5 percent of GDP annually.
- Households accessing clean water: 78.1 percent in 2002 and 93.4 percent in 2016.
- Rural household electrification increased from below 50 percent in 1990 to about 99 percent in 2016.
- The sum of exports and imports stands at around 200 percent of GDP (degree of openness).
- FDI inflows surged to 10 percent of GDP in 1996, and again to 9 percent in 2008.
- Vietnam went from a chronic rice importer to exports averaging 3–4 million tons a year.

### Structural transformation and labor markets
- Agriculture’s share in GDP fell from over 40 percent in the late 1980s to less than 15 percent of GDP today.
- By 2017, agriculture as a share of the labor force declined to 40 percent, while services reached 34 percent.
- The shift in employment to higher productivity sectors contributed about 40 percent of the labor productivity growth during 1990-2010.
- Urban population: fewer than 13 million in 1986 and more than 30 million in recent years.
- Number of enterprises fully owned by the state fell from over 12,000 in 1989 to fewer than 600 in 2016.
- Inflation was brought down to the single digits within one decade following the initiation of Doi Moi reforms.

### Public finances, decentralization, and service delivery
- Local authorities execute over half of total government spending today (17 out of the 30 percent of GDP in 2016).
- State Budget Laws (SBL) of 1996, 2002 and 2015 granted wide-ranging fiscal responsibilities to provincial authorities, and revenue-sharing and transfer arrangements aim to redistribute revenue collected in richer provinces to poorer ones.
- Decentralization increased spending responsibilities and local discretion for planning education and transport activities.

### Education: policies, outcomes, and public spending
- Public general government (GG) budget earmarks 20 percent of budget expenditure for education and training each year (noting the number has not always been reached).
- The literacy rate of children aged 15 or over was 95 percent in 2016.
- 92 percent of 3 to 5-year old children are going to kindergarten.
- 99 per-cent of primary school aged children are enrolled in school (VNR 2018).
- Education For All (EFA) initiatives:
  - 1993–2000 EFA plan core elements: quality primary education for all, gender equality across all levels, education and training for out-of-school young people and adults to promote adult literacy.
  - 2003–2015 EFA plan five main goals: moving from quantity to quality; completing universal primary and universal lower secondary education; providing lifelong learning opportunities; mobilizing full participation (all for education); and ensuring effective management and ever better resource utilization.
- Policy elements supporting EFA success included: determination and well-coordinated donor support; quantity with inclusiveness (free primary education, free textbooks and supplies for ethnic minority students; boarding/semi-boarding schools for provinces with many ethnic minority groups); expanding out-of-school learning and vocational training; and major focus on teachers with new pre- and in-service training programs and assessment systems.
- Primary education expenditure doubled until 1990; by late 1990 education expenditure accounted for about 15 percent of total public spending and was subsequently increased to 20 percent of annual GG budget expenditure, where it remains until today.
- Provinces were made accountable for achieving EFA goals and integrated provincial plans into the national EFA plan (MoET 2016).

### Infrastructure: achievements and constraints
- Rapid expansion of infrastructure stocks supported industrial and manufacturing growth.
- Power generation, transmission, and distribution capacity scaled up to meet rapidly rising electricity demand (per capita electricity consumption more than tripling over the past decade).
- The current urban road network is severely congested during peak hours, with increases in private car ownership exacerbating congestion.
- Infrastructure remains fragmented and of low quality in places; water pollution is a significant challenge.
- Average energy consumption is still low compared to other emerging markets but is expected to increase dramatically until 2030.

### Paper scope and methodology notes
- The paper undertakes a forward-looking costing exercise focusing on five sectors—education, health, roads, water, and electricity infrastructure—given data and methodological constraints.
- The models used are not comprehensive for overall financing needs for SDGs; climate change and poverty reduction are acknowledged as important but not modeled here.
- The paper does not provide an in-depth analysis of causal relationships between the sectors and economic success, nor between policies and outcomes.

*Source: IMF staff compilation from the provided content unit.*

### 3.5 percent in 2000 to 6 percent in 2015 (Figure 5.a). The state budget remained the main funding

### Education, Electricity, and Health in Vietnam

### Education: coverage, spending, and outcomes
- Public education expenditure rose from 3.5 percent in 2000 to 6 percent in 2015 (Figure 5.a).
- The state budget remained the main funding source; donor support estimated to cover only 10 percent of the total public education budget in the 1990s.
- Public education spending priorities over time:
  - First: investing into schooling institutions (Figure 5.b) and primary school teachers.
  - Followed by: expansion of secondary school teachers (Figure 5.c).
- Demographic and service indicators:
  - Student-teacher ratio fell from 35 in 1995 to 20 today (Figure 5.d).
  - Primary education reached 80 percent of school-age population in the early 2000s; near universal primary and pre-primary education reached today.
  - Net enrolment rates achieved almost complete gender balance.
  - Enrolments in lower secondary education doubled.
  - Literacy rate of children aged 15 or over was 95 percent in 2016.
  - 92 percent of 3 to 5-year old children are going to kindergarten.
  - 99 percent of primary school aged children are enrolled in school.
  - 99.7 percent of children were completing primary education in the 2016-2017 school year (VNR 2018).
  - Vietnam’s 2012 and 2015 PISA results outperform most other countries in its income group (Parandekar and Sedmik 2016).
- Remaining challenges:
  - Many children from poor households, remote areas and ethnic minority groups still struggle to access quality and inclusive education.
  - School days tend to be short in primary schools, increasing household spending on private tutoring and raising equity concerns (Dang and Glewwe 2017).
  - Employers report skill mismatches in professional or technical high-paying jobs (World Bank 2014).
  - High outbound student mobility: 63,703 students studying abroad in 2017, reflecting both a fast growing middle-class and shortcomings in higher education quantity and quality.

### Electricity: expansion, financing, and risks
- Performance and access:
  - Transmission and distribution power losses are at or close to best-practice international standards (Figure 6.a).
  - Collection rates from consumers are almost 100 percent (World Bank 2016b).
  - Rural household electrification increased from below 50 percent in 1990 to almost 100 percent today.
  - By early 2018, 99.9 percent of communes and 99 percent of rural households were connected to the grid (Figure 6.b) (World Bank 2018, VNR 2018).
  - World Bank 2017 Competitiveness Assessment: access to electricity in Vietnam scored 78.69 out of 100.
- Financing modalities:
  - Traditionally relied on public investment by state-owned enterprises backed by government guarantees.
  - USD 8 billion annual investment went into electricity, primarily executed through Electricity Vietnam (EVN).
  - EVN established in 1995 and largely self-financing since.
  - Donor loans were on-lent by the Government to EVN; EVN repaid at concessional interest rates.
  - About half of EVN’s investment financed through on-lending; the other half borrowed from local and international commercial banks, guaranteed by the government.
  - Government provided non-debt payment guarantees (collateral, default risk coverage for BOT projects).
- Private sector and market reforms:
  - 2004 Vietnam Electricity Law initiated unbundling of EVN, established a market regulator, and introduced a competitive generation market.
  - 2006 roadmap for a competitive power market; EVN to maintain monopoly only for transmission grid infrastructure.
  - Private participation via build-operate-transfer (BOT) and independent power producer (IPP) schemes.
  - Government supports private financing with tax holidays; renewable energy benefits from tax reductions, import duty exemptions, and accelerated depreciation.
  - Today 30 percent of generation capacity developed by the private sector under BOT arrangements, most with government guarantees and mainly for large thermal power plants by international investors.
  - Private investments in hydropower by local investors generally conducted without government support.
- Operational outcomes and limits:
  - EVN’s targeted rural electrification efforts raised poor household access from 50 percent in mid-90s to 77 percent in 2001 (Khandker et al. 2009).
  - World Bank (2016) assesses EVN’s performance standards as “very good in many respects”.
  - In 2018, EVN produced more than 2200 kWh per capita.
  - In 2015, only six power outages were recorded (World Bank 2018).
- Risks and constraints:
  - Average energy consumption still low compared to other emerging markets and expected to increase dramatically until 2030.
  - Low tariffs to ensure social equity mean most of EVN’s capital spending is financed through debt, primarily in foreign currency, increasing sustainability risks and foreign exchange exposure.
  - Current generation and transmission operations are near capacity limits.
  - Share of renewable energy is still small; coal production continues to increase rapidly, contributing to degrading air quality and premature mortality.
- Ancillary statistic:
  - Electricity production per capita was 1896 kWh in 2016, with growth rate about 10.3 percent annually during 2011–2016 (GSO).

### Health: outcomes, spending, and coverage
- Key health outcomes:
  - Maternal mortality rate declined by 75 percent between 1990 and 2015 (VNR 2018).
  - New cases of tuberculosis per 100,000 people reduced from 375 cases in 2000 to 130 cases in 2017 (WHO 2018).
  - Immunization brought close to 100 percent a few years following Doi Moi; immunization of children increased to 90 percent already by 1990 (Figure 8).
  - 90 percent of births are attended by a skilled health worker.
- Coverage and expenditure:
  - Some 73 percent of Vietnam’s population has access to essential health services.
  - Health insurance coverage was 87 percent in 2018.
  - Total health spending around 5 percent of GDP in early years after Doi Moi, of which one third was public and only 3 percent financed by ODA.
  - Per capita health expenditure has been growing rapidly (Figure 7).
- Reforms and subsidies:
  - Health care and pharmaceuticals market liberalized in late 1980s; official user fees introduced at public health facilities (Ekman et al. 2008).
  - Community clinics required in all communes to provide wide network of health service access.
  - National Target Programs since early 90s focused on vaccination, nutrition, and food safety.
  - Salaries for all health staff paid by central government starting in 1994.
  - Health insurance introduced in 1992, initially covering formal sector workers and the poor.
  - Subsidy policies:
    - Government subsidizes 100 percent of premiums for the very poor, ethnic minority children, and children under six years of age.
    - At least 70 percent of the premium for the "near-poor".
    - At least 30 percent of premiums for school children and students as well as the rest of the informal sector.
  - By policies and programs, some 15 million poor and ethnic-minority people are covered by subsidized health insurance.
- Out-of-pocket spending trends:
  - Out-of-pocket spending increased to 71 percent of total health spending by 1993 and 80 percent by 1998 (Liebermann and Wagstaff, 2009).
  - It declined to below 50 percent with increasing public health spending in the 2000s.
- Remaining challenges:
  - Child mortality rates are above the SDG UN target.
  - Coverage of doctors and nurses remains low compared to other developed and emerging markets.
  - Food contamination, food poisoning and disease contagion through food are pervasive (MPI 2012).

### Other infrastructure
- Infrastructure investment prioritized for decades; road infrastructure received the majority of donor funding.
- Early heavy investment into trunk infrastructure played a large role in creating new business opportunities and promoting income diversification and off-farm employment (World Bank 1999, 2006).
- International donors started to support the transport (and electricity) sector as of the early years following Doi Moi.

*Source: wpiea2020031-print-pdf (excerpt provided).*

### 1990. The early focus was on main

### wpiea2020031-print-pdf - 1990. The early focus was on main

### Historical infrastructure focus and donor support
- Early emphasis on main roads to connect sea and airports.
- World Bank (2006) and ADB (2012) found rehabilitation of trunk infrastructure facilitated spread of economic linkages between growth centers and surrounding rural areas.
- Importance of connecting remote areas with power grids, and trunk roads with feeder roads to achieve poverty-reducing growth.
- Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences (2006): spending an additional 1 percent of GDP in transport infrastructure led to a proportionate reduction of the poverty rate of roughly 0.5 percent, with larger impacts in poorer provinces.
- Given Vietnam’s long coastline, maritime development was made a priority and received significant donor funding.

### Current infrastructure quality and access challenges
- Infrastructure still lags the country’s rapid socio-economic development and remains fragmented and of low quality.
- Road quality remains relatively poor (ADB 2017).
- Access to clean and safe water has improved, but safely managed water access remains a challenge in both rural and urban areas.
- Elevated water pollution levels increase risks.
- Note on household access to clean water:
  - 78.1 percent of households in 2002 to 93.4 percent in 2016 (99 percent urban and 91 percent rural, VNR 2018).
  - Percentage of households using hygienic latrines increased from 55 percent in 2002 to 83 percent in 2016.

### Urbanization and transport dynamics
- Strong growth in major urban centers has resulted in large demand for transport.
- Rapid expansion of private vehicle fleets has met demand; private vehicles, mostly motorcycles, make up an abnormally high proportion (80–90 percent) of total vehicles.
- Significant potential for household incomes to rise, enabling more families to afford cars, which will exacerbate congestion.
- Current road network already severely congested during peak hours.

### Overview: Assessing Vietnam’s spending needs for the 2030 SDGs
- Focus of costing exercise: five sectors — education, health, roads, water, and electricity infrastructure.
- These sectors are not comprehensive; climate change and poverty reduction remain important challenges.
- Models focus on these five sectors given data and methodological constraints.
- Government actions and planning:
  - Vietnam mapped 17 global SDGs into 115 Vietnam SDG (VSDG) goals in the “National Action Plan for Implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”.
  - SDGs integrated into SEDS 2011–2020, SEDP 2016–2020, and to play central role in SEDP 2021–2025 and SEDS 2021–2030.
  - Vietnam launched its Voluntary National Review (VNR) in July 2018 and formulated a national system of statistical indicators for monitoring sustainable development.
  - SDG implementation strongly supported by international development partners.

### Health expenditure: methodological framework
- Total health expenditure (HE) decomposed as:
  - HE = DCOMP + OSCOMP + OCURRENT + CAP. (equation 1.1)
- Alternative expression using wages and staff numbers:
  - HE = D * DAWAGE + OS * OSAWAGE + x * HE + y * HE. (equation 1.2)
- Relationships and parameterizations:
  - OS A WAGE and OS represented as share of DAWAGE (α) and doctor-to-other staff ratio (ρ).
  - Number of doctors D = pop * PDR. (implicit in equation 1.3)
  - Final identity: HE = (PDR * pop * (1 + α/ρ) * DAWAGE) / (1 − x − y). (equation 1.4)
- Data sources and assumptions:
  - WHO provides HE, DPR, y, and ρ.
  - OECD data: α assumed to be 1/2.
  - x (share of other current spending) computed as residual using WHO aggregated data by income groups and regions.
  - DAWAGE can be expressed as DAWAGE = HE * (1 − x − y) / (PDR * pop * (1 + α/ρ)).

### Health expenditure: reference values and peer-based projections
- “Good performers” defined as median performers among countries with GDP per capita between $4000 and $10,000 and SDG3 score of 80 to 100.
- Of 39 countries with GDP per capita between $4,000 and $10,000, only 8 have SDG3 score above 80.
- Median good performer statistics (from text):
  - Doctors per 1,000 population: 2.3
  - Doctor wages: $27,024
  - Share of capital spending: 2.2 percent of total health expenditure
  - Spending: $404 per person or 6.7 percent of GDP
- Vietnam 2030 projection if matching median good performer:
  - Total health spending increase from 5.4 to 6.9 percent of GDP ($321/capita).
  - Doctors paid an average salary of 4.8 times the GDP/capita.
  - Doctors per 1,000 population: 2.3 (4 times more than the most recent value).
  - Public-sector share increase: total public health spending would increase by 1.5 percent of GDP, with the public share increasing by 1.4 percent.
- Vietnam public plan alternative:
  - Public plans aim to increase doctors to 1.1 per 1,000 population (MoH Decision 3929), below top peers.
  - Targeting 1.1 doctors per 1,000 would keep total health spending almost constant at 5.5 percent of GDP, with public share increasing by 0.6 percent of GDP to 3.3 percent of GDP.
- Policy and demand drivers increasing spending needs:
  - Government aims for universal health insurance; currently pays subsidies for premiums and some costs for up to 60 percent of the population.
  - Rapid aging and rising medical costs internationally.
  - Government mandates GG health spending to increase more than overall budget spending each year.
- Conservative financing assumption used in subsequent discussion:
  - Increase of 1 percent of GDP for public health spending.
  - Increase of 0.8 percent of GDP for total health spending.

### Health: key empirical table (selected median statistics from Table 1)
- Number of countries: Peers 35; Good Performer 8.
- GDP per capita (current USD): Peers 5871.4; Good Performer 5616.3; Vietnam Latest 2214.4; Vietnam 2030 Plans 4628.8; Vietnam 2030 Good Performer Comparison 4628.8.
- Doctors per 1000 population: Peers 1.6; Good Performer 2.3; Vietnam Latest 0.8; Vietnam 2030 Plans 1.1; Vietnam 2030 Good Performer Comparison 2.3.
- Other health staff per 1000 population: Peers 6.3; Good Performer 6.4; Vietnam Latest 3.9; Vietnam 2030 Plans 6.4; Vietnam 2030 Good Performer Comparison 6.4.
- Doctor Salary: Peers 34245; Good Performer 27024; Vietnam Latest 9037; Vietnam 2030 Plans 22273; Vietnam 2030 Good Performer Comparison 22273.
- Salary to GDP per capita ratio: Peers 5.8; Good Performer 4.8; Vietnam Latest 4.1; Vietnam 2030 Plans 4.8; Vietnam 2030 Good Performer Comparison 4.8.
- Capital spending (% of total health spending): Peers 2.3%; Good Performer 2.2%; Vietnam Latest 9.9%; Vietnam 2030 Plans 2.2%; Vietnam 2030 Good Performer Comparison 2.2%.
- Total health spending to GDP (%): Peers 6.4%; Good Performer 6.7%; Vietnam Latest 5.4%; Vietnam 2030 Plans 5.5%; Vietnam 2030 Good Performer Comparison 6.9%.
- Spending per capita (current USD): Peers 399.1; Good Performer 404.4; Vietnam Latest 119.8; Vietnam 2030 Plans 254.3; Vietnam 2030 Good Performer Comparison 321.0.
- Public Spending (% of total): Peers 59.4; Good Performer 59.5; Vietnam Latest 49.6; Vietnam 2030 Plans 59.5; Vietnam 2030 Good Performer Comparison 59.5.
- Public Spending (% of GDP): Peers 3.8%; Good Performer 4.0%; Vietnam Latest 2.7%; Vietnam 2030 Plans 3.3%; Vietnam 2030 Good Performer Comparison 4.1%.
- SDG3 score: Peers 74; Good Performer 82; Vietnam Latest 75.

### Education expenditure: methodological framework
- Public education expenditure (EE) decomposed as:
  - EE = TCOMP + NTCOMP + OCURRENT + CAP. (equation 1.5)
- Alternative expression using wages and teacher numbers:
  - EE = AWAGE * T + x * EE + y * EE + z * EE. (equation 1.6)
  - EE = (AWAGE * T) / (1 − x − y − z). (equation 1.7)
- Teachers expressed via teacher-to-student ratio (TSR) and enrollment:
  - EE = (AWAGE * TSR * ER * SAP) / (1 − x − y − z). (equation 1.8)
- Reference values derived from UNESCO data and median good performers with GDP per capita between $3000 and $10,000 and SDG4 score 80 to 100.
- Targeted 2030 enrollment rates assumed:
  - Pre-primary, primary, secondary: 100
  - Tertiary: 40

### Education: Vietnam’s status and 2030 implications
- Vietnam has above-average education outcomes in its income group.
- Education spending (public and total) is significantly higher than peers.
- Teacher salaries comparable to average top performer; student-to-teacher ratio about average among peers.
- Vietnam’s enrollment rate already at the average good performer level.
- Table 2 highlights (selected median statistics):
  - Number of countries: Peers 42; Good Performer 20.
  - GDP per capita (current USD): Vietnam Latest 2214; Peers 4510; Good Performer 10352; Vietnam 2030 1946; (note: table formatting in source preserves these exact numeric strings).
  - Average enrollment rate: Vietnam Latest 73%; Peers 69%; Good Performer 71%; Vietnam 2030 71%.
  - Student-age population (% of total pop): Vietnam Latest 32%; Peers 38%; Good Performer 34%; Vietnam 2030 29%.
  - Teachers per 100 students: Vietnam Latest 5.4; Peers 5.5; Good Performer 6.8; Vietnam 2030 6.8.
  - Student to teacher ratio: Vietnam Latest 18; Peers 18; Good Performer 15; Vietnam 2030 15.
  - Average teacher salary (current USD): Vietnam Latest 4584; Peers 11240; Good Performer 9999; Vietnam 2030 98913 (preserve exact numeric strings as in source).
  - Teacher salary to GDP per capita ratio: Vietnam Latest 2.1; Peers 1.9; Good Performer 1.9; Vietnam 2030 1.9.
  - Teacher compensation (% total spending): Vietnam Latest 33.9; Peers 60.9; Good Performer 55.9; Vietnam 2030 55.9.
  - Other current and capital cost (% total spending): Vietnam Latest 66; Peers 39; Good Performer 44; Vietnam 2030 44.
  - Public education spending to GDP (%): Vietnam Latest 5.3%; Peers 4.1%; Good Performer 4.0%; Vietnam 2030 4.8%.
  - Spending per student (current USD): Vietnam Latest 630; Peers 964; Good Performer 1,059; Vietnam 2030 1,078.
  - SDG4 score: Vietnam Latest 81; Peers 80; Good Performer 86.
  - Private spending share: Vietnam Latest 20.5%; Peers 15.4%; Good Performer 15.4%; Vietnam 2030 15.4%.
  - Total Education Spending (% of GDP): Vietnam Latest 6.7%; Peers 4.8%; Good Performer 4.8%; Vietnam 2030 5.7%.

### Education policy notes and fiscal implications
- Education remains a top priority; policy envisaging 20 percent of total budget spending earmarked for education is unlikely to change in near term.
- Government does not target a reduction in student-teacher ratios currently.
- Resolution 104 (early August 2018) agreed with MOET’s proposal on waiving tuition fees for 5-year old children at pre-school level and students at lower public secondary school, which will increase share of public spending in total education spending.
- State budget will also support tuition for students at private schools in poorer and remote areas.
- If lower student-teacher ratios from Decision 2161 of MOET were implemented (pre-primary 15, primary 20, secondary 22), resulting lower average student-teacher ratio could free fiscal space for targeted initiatives (e.g., out-of-school training, IT training).

### Infrastructure spending: water (introductory remarks)
- Access to safe water remains a public priority; Law on Water Resources and National Strategy on Water Resources important for SDG 6.
- National Target Programs (NTP) on New Rural Development (2016-2020) and on Sustainable Poverty reduction (2016-2020) focus on water needs of the poor, ethnic minorities and those living in remote areas.
- Going forward, based on the World Bank WASH costing model, Vietnam would need to spend (text cuts off here).

*Source: Excerpt from IMF staff estimates and analysis in the provided PDF content.*

### 1.1 percent of 2017 GDP per year total to provide safe water to all households and end open

### wpiea2020031-print-pdf - 1.1 percent of 2017 GDP per year total to provide safe water to all households and end open defecation

### WASH (Water, Sanitation, Hygiene) spending needs
- Main finding: Annual cost to provide safe water to all households and end open defecation is estimated at 1.1 percent of 2017 GDP per year (WASH model result).
- Drivers and context:
  - Result mainly driven by the need to expand safely managed water supply.
  - Private sector participation encouraged in high population density areas with preferential land access and loan subsidies.
  - Fragmented water supply in remote areas remains a concern; donor assistance remains targeted there.
  - Unofficial government estimate: current spending on water is about 0.6 percent of GDP.
  - Predicted additional spending needs until 2030: about VND 300 trillion (6 percent of 2017 GDP).
  - Conclusion: average cost estimate of the WASH model is comparable to the sum of current public spending and estimated additional needs per year.
- Key table figures (World Bank Global WASH Cost, IMF staff calculations):
  - Total cost (million USD): Water 16; Sanitation 1,249; Hygiene 2,581; Water (other?) 56; Sanitation 15,693; Total 30,308
  - Annual cost (million USD): Water 1; Sanitation 96; Hygiene 199; Water (other?) 4; Sanitation 1,207; Total 2,331
  - Total cost (percent of 2017 GDP): Water 0.0%; Sanitation 0.6%; Hygiene 1.2%; Water (other?) 0.0%; Sanitation 7.1%; Total 13.8%
  - Annual cost (percent of 2017 GDP): Water 0.0%; Sanitation 0.0%; Hygiene 0.1%; Water (other?) 0.0%; Sanitation 0.5%; Total 1.1%

### Electricity spending needs
- SDG framing: SDG Target 7.1 – “by 2030, ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services.”
- Costing components measured:
  1. INV1: cost to expand electricity capacity to extend coverage to 100 percent of the population while maintaining the same initial level of electricity consumption per user.
  2. INV2: cost to elevate electricity consumption per user to a higher benchmark (for example median emerging market consumption or government target).
- Unit cost assumption: $2,258 per kW of generating capacity, including associated network cost (World Bank 2013).
- Key model variables: a (fraction of population with access), P (population), g (population growth rate), T (years to reach SDG), w (consumption per user), ŵ (benchmark), C (unit cost $2,258).
- Vietnam specifics and projections:
  - Full electricity coverage nearly reached; main need is capacity to accommodate rising per capita consumption.
  - Per capita consumption is expected to grow 8 percent per year on average until 2030 (Danish Energy Agency 2017), leading to costs of an additional 3.3 percent of GDP per year.
  - Most increase in generation expected to be carried out by electricity SOE (EVN) and the private sector.
  - EVN currently not receiving public transfers; grid extension for renewable energy will need major investments; mass storage facilities still need development.
- Table 4 figures (notes: 2018 and 2030 consumption approximated from 2014 per capita and 8 percent growth):
  - Electricity access at starting period 100%
  - Annualized Population Growth 0.8%
  - Electricity consumption per user at starting period (kwh) 1,866
  - Unit cost incl. generation and transmission ($) 2,258
  - (A) Annual cost to reach universal access while maintaining initial consumption 357,377,537
  - As percent of GDP at starting period 0.2%
  - (B) Expected GDP Growth 133%
  - Expected consumption per user based on GDP Growth 2,139.21
  - Target consumption per user (enter government target, or choose from distribution table below) 5072
  - Additional annual cost to reach target consumption 6,555,758,403
  - As percent of GDP at starting period 3.2%
  - (C) = (A)+(B) Annual cost to reach universal access and target consumption 6,913,135,939.77
  - As percent of GDP at starting period 3.3%

### Road infrastructure spending needs
- Approach: road density used as proxy for transport performance related to SDGs; target road density derived from regression on GDP per capita, population density, sector shares, urbanization, and Rural Access Index (RAI).
- Rural Access Index (RAI) and road expansion:
  - RAI assumed today 90% and estimated to increase to 95% by 2030.
  - Increasing RAI by 5 percent translates into road density of 1054 km per 1000 km^2, resulting in additional 68,700 km of roads.
- Unit cost assumptions and context:
  - IMF (2019) estimate for a two-way paved road: USD 500,000 per km; but two-lane paved road unit cost set at USD 1,000,000 here for Vietnam.
  - Highway unit costs estimated at $6,400,000 per km.
  - Approximately 5,500 km will be new highway construction; Ministry of Transport targets expressways between 6,400 and 7000 km total by 2030.
- Table 5 figures:
  - Today population 93,456,712; 2030 population 103,117,320
  - Area (Sq Km) 331,230
  - RAI today 90% ; 2030 95%
  - Km Roads today 280,547 ; 2030 349,193
  - New Roads Additional Km Needed 68,646.25
  - Unit cost 2-lane paved ($/Km) 1,000,000
  - Unit cost highway ($/km) 6,400,000
  - Total Cost 98,346,246,547.17
  - Annual Cost New Roads 7,565,095,888
  - % of GDP 3.7%
  - Maintenance: Depreciation rate 5.00%
  - Average annual maintenance cost 1,584,144,151
  - % of GDP 0.8%
  - Total annual cost (New plus Maintenance) 9,149,240,039
  - % of GDP 4.4%
- Conclusion: new construction requires about 3.7 percent of GDP additional spending per year; with depreciation and maintenance total needs estimated at 4.4 percent of GDP per year.

### Aggregate spending needs and sectoral shares
- Summary estimate for five subsectors (education, health, roads, electricity, water):
  - Total additional spending needs into the 5 subsectors estimated at 7 percent of GDP by 2030.
  - Share of public sector spending (excluding SOEs) approximated at around 4.7 percent of GDP.
  - Note: only 5 of 17 SDG goals are costed here; overall public spending needs likely to be significant.
- Table 6 (Total and Public Spending Needs – Preliminary Estimates) key figures (percent of GDP, columns A through F as presented):
  - Education (by 2030): Total Spending (2017 Estimates) A 6.7 ; Budget Provision (2017 Estimates) B 5.3 ; Total Spending Needs (2030) C 5.7 ; Total Public Spending Needs (2030) D 4.8 ; Additional Total Spending Needs (2030) E = C-A 0 ; Additional Public Spending Needs (2030) F 0
  - Health (by 2030): A 5.4 ; B 2.7 ; C 6.2 ; D 3.7 ; E 0.8 ; F 1
  - Roads (annual): A - ; B 1.5 ; C 4.4 ; D 3.5 ; E 2.9 ; F 2
  - Electricity (annual): A - ; B 0.5 ; C 3.3 ; D 1.8 ; E 2.8 ; F 1.3
  - Water (annual): A - ; B 0.6 ; C 1.1 ; D 1 ; E 0.5 ; F 0.4
  - Total (vertical sum): Total Spending (2017 Estimates) A 10.6 ; Budget Provision B 20.7 ; Total Spending Needs (2030) C 14.8 ; Total Public Spending Needs (2030) D 7.0 ; Additional Total Spending Needs (2030) E 4.7

### Medium-term financing strategy — constraints and options
- Fiscal constraints:
  - Public debt (2018, GSF classification) 55.6 percent of GDP; statutory debt limit 65 percent of GDP.
  - Government signaled breaching debt limit will not be an option.
  - IMF analysis (Article IV 2018) indicates raising debt limit not recommended due to macroeconomic risks (potential growth and interest shocks), contingent liabilities, and age-related spending needs.
- Revenue and ODA:
  - General Government Revenues 24.5 percent of GDP; Tax Revenue 18.5 percent of GDP (Table 7).
  - ODA declining after Vietnam’s 2010 graduation to lower middle-income status; ODA previously significant in water, road, and electricity sectors.
  - Mobilizing additional concessional funding will be difficult; ODA will remain important for some sectors (especially water) for some time.
- Private sector participation and public enterprises:
  - Government aims to increase private sector participation to mobilize additional financing.
  - EVN expected to implement most needed electricity investments; private domestic investment and FDI expected to increase.
  - As of 2015, 29 percent of Vietnam’s power generation was private (ADB 2015).
  - Given investment scale, public sector investment likely required to support EVN in medium-term.
  - PPPs especially sought in road sector; private participation encouraged in water sector though rural access fragmentation and high costs will continue to require ODA and public support.
- Efficiency gains and institutional reforms:
  - Significant weaknesses in public investment management (PIM) system noted by September 2018 IMF FAD PIMA mission; efficiency improvements could free resources.
  - Government actions: new Public Investment Law issued in 2019; revision of PPP framework underway; requirement to reduce public-sector staff headcount by 10 percent by 2020 to create fiscal space.
- Climate and green growth:
  - Vietnam highly affected by climate change and natural disasters; government focusing on climate change adaptation and green growth.
  - “Vietnam Green Growth Strategy” and Green Growth Action Plan to impact most SDGs; MOF improving policies on environmental protection charges for wastewater and emissions.

### Conclusions and policy implications
- Achieving remaining SDGs will be challenging: total additional spending needs in the five costed subsectors estimated at 7 percent of GDP by 2030; public sector share about 4.7 percent of GDP.
- Key policy levers to mobilize financing and achieve goals:
  - Increases in tax revenue (noting current revenue-to-GDP 24.5 percent and limited near-term prospects for large increases).
  - Spending rationalization and efficiency gains in public investment and recurrent spending.
  - Increased private sector participation (domestic and foreign), including PPPs, especially in roads and electricity.
  - Continued targeted ODA for sectors with high donor role (notably rural water), recognizing ODA decline overall.
  - Strengthening PIM, PPP frameworks, and enabling legal environment to attract investment.
  - Prioritizing green growth and climate adaptation in project selection and financing.
- Strategic note: Estimates presented are subject to uncertainties (lack of official spending plans beyond 2020, target ambiguities, data limitations, and private sector participation uncertainties) and should be understood as indicative trends rather than precise forecasts.

*Source: IMF staff estimates and analysis as presented in the PDF content unit.*

### References

### wpiea2020031-print-pdf - References

### Multilateral institutions and international organizations
- Asian Development Bank (2009). Country Assistance Program Evaluation Report (CAPT) for Viet Nam. Manila.  
- Asian Development Bank (2012). Transport Sector Assessment, Strategy, and Road Map. Country Report, Manila.  
- Asian Development Bank (2015). Assessment of Power Sector Reforms in Viet Nam. Country Report, Manila.  
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- World Bank (2006). Infrastructure Strategy – Vietnam’s Infrastructure Challenge. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.  
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### Vietnam government and national plans
- Government of Vietnam (2012). “Implementation of Sustainable Development.” National Report at the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (RIO+20). Hanoi.  
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### Energy and power sector
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### Education
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### Health and social protection
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### Infrastructure and transport
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### Fiscal policy, decentralization, and public finance
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- International Monetary Fund (2019). “Fiscal Policy and Development: Human, Social, and Physical Investment for the SDGs,” IMF Staff Discussion Note, SDN/19/03, Washington, DC: IMF.  

### Poverty, development, and SDGs
- Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences (2006). Vietnam Poverty Update: 2006. Hanoi.  
- Sachs, J., Schmidt-Traub, G., Kroll, C., Durand-Delacre, D. and Teksoz, K. (2017). SDG Index and Dashboards Report 2018. New York: Bertelsmann Stiftung and Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN).  
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### Academic and thematic studies
- Herr, Hansjörg, Erwin Schweissheim, and Truong-Minh Vu (2016). “The Integration of Vietnam in the Global Economy and its Effects for Vietnamese Economic Development.” Global Labour University and International Labour Office Working Paper No. 44.  
- Dang, Hai-Anh H., and Paul W. Glewwe (2017). “Well Begun, But Aiming Higher – A Review of Vietnam’s Education Trends in the Past 20 Years and Emerging Challenges.” Policy Research Working Paper 9112. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.  
- Parandekar, Suhas D., and Elisabeth K. Sedmik (2016). “Unraveling a Secret – Vietnam’s Outstanding Performance on the PISA Test.” World Bank Group, policy Research Working Paper 7630.  
- Nga Nguyet Nguyen (2002). “Trends in the Education Sector from 1993-98.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 2891.  

*Source: wpiea2020031-print-pdf - References*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2020/english/wpiea2020031-print-pdf.pdf_