## 6.2 percent of farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia purchased insurance against

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---

### Insurance uptake and design considerations
- Findings:
  - "6.2 percent of farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia purchased insurance against climate risks in 2011 (GIZ 2016)."
  - "Even in high-income German state Bavaria only 41 percent of residents in high-flood risk areas can afford to buy the insurance (Rodriguez Martinez, Büsing and Leistner 2020)."
- Policy analysis and recommendations:
  - Subsidize insurance for the most vulnerable or for lower-income countries (example: World Bank’s Disaster Risk Financing Insurance) to increase coverage.
  - Caution: improperly designed insurance schemes can reduce incentives to mitigate and adapt (example: subsidized flood insurance may increase housing construction in flood-prone areas).
  - Design detail matters: index insurance for small farmers predicates payments on observable indicators (e.g., rainfall shortage) independent of farmer effort; country-level analogs include ARC, PCRAFI and CCRIF.
  - Example program: R4 Rural Resilience Initiative subsidizes climate risk insurance for the poorest farmers in exchange for work on local climate-resilience projects.

### Structural transformation and labor market policies
- Core insight:
  - Structural transformation should go beyond macroeconomic stability and buffers to facilitate discovery and expansion of new economic activities when climate change renders traditional activity unviable.
- Policy recommendations:
  - Prudent but not excessive regulation of product markets to allow entry/exit, facilitating competition and entrepreneurship.
  - Financial inclusion and financial markets development to help entrepreneurs finance initial ideas.
  - General entrepreneurship support: business training, incubators, financial and logistical support.
  - Labor market focus: active labor market policies (ALMPs) including job training, job-search assistance, well-targeted job and wage subsidies, public works programs, and mental health support (ILO 2017).
  - For highly localized climate impacts, combine ALMPs with phase-out plans, public investment and incentives for diversification, policies to increase social and physical mobility (research, education, transport infrastructure), and early retirement schemes.
- Examples:
  - Philippines’ Green Jobs Act subsidizes hiring and training for environment-preserving jobs.
  - Retraining coal workers for solar energy employment, combined with renewable investment in former coal-mining regions (example cited: North Macedonia).

### Reducing exposure and vulnerability: early warning, private and public resilience investment
- Information and early action:
  - Well-designed early warning systems (EWSs) alert populations about upcoming natural disasters and must be paired with clearly communicated evacuation plans and attention to the poor.
  - Example: During hurricane Katrina in 2005 about "25 percent of New Orleans residents" did not evacuate despite early warning, citing lack of shelter, transportation, health, and unclear government communication.
- Encourage or mandate private resilience investment:
  - Tools: building codes, tax deductions or charges, subsidies, subsidized lending, partial loan guarantees.
  - Examples:
    - Washington D.C.: fee proportional to impervious area reflecting contribution to storm water runoff (DC Water 2020).
    - Singapore: "subsidizes up to 50 percent of installation costs of rooftop and vertical greenery" to mitigate urban heat (Singapore Government 2020).
    - Thailand’s Baan Mankong program: infrastructure subsidies and subsidized housing loans for the urban poor upgrading communities.
    - World Bank’s Global Program for Resilient Housing uses drones, cameras, machine learning to identify highest risk areas (World Bank 2019a).
- Public infrastructure investment:
  - Grey infrastructure: seawalls, levees, drainage, water reservoirs, hurricane-proofing power lines, irrigation systems.
  - Green infrastructure often more efficient and provides co-benefits (mitigation, local economy, health). Examples:
    - Wetland and oyster reef restoration is "the most cost effective way to reduce coastal flooding damage across the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast" (Reguero, et al. 2018).
    - Without coral reefs "annual damage from coastal flooding around the world would double" (Beck, et al. 2018).
  - Resilience of transport systems and supply chains is crucial for food security.
- Public financial management and planning:
  - Incorporate adaptation into medium-term budget frameworks and develop financing plans for adaptation spending.
  - Assessment: in developing countries, financing needs for nationally-determined adaptation goals up to 2030 are likely "six to thirteen times larger than the current level of international adaptation finance (UNEP 2016)."

### Migration, resettlement, and planetary limits
- Observations and projections:
  - Observed relocations: Papua New Guinea, China, and Vietnam have relocated communities due to increased flooding vulnerability.
  - Projection: "Climate-induced migration in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America is expected to rise by over 140 million people by 2050 – around 2.8 percent of the population of these regions (Kumari Rigaud, et al. 2018)."
- Policy implication:
  - Strengthen legal and economic institutions to handle increased, rapid and unpredictable migration flows.
  - Special case: sea level rise may lead to disappearance of some sovereign states (SIDS), posing collective action problems for financing adaptation and potential relocation.

### Measuring well-being and sustainability: beyond GDP
- Critique:
  - GDP-focused policy biases against environmental mitigation and sustainable use of natural resources.
- Recommendations:
  - Transition System of National Accounts from flow-centered GDP to stock-centered broad capital measures, tracking wealth and natural capital.
  - Use wealth indexes and dashboards for ex-ante and ex-post policy evaluation; embed planetary boundaries (e.g., national annual carbon budgets binding on policy).
- Indexes and approaches cited:
  - UN Environment Programme’s Inclusive Wealth Index (IWI).
  - World Bank’s Changing Wealth of Nations.
  - UN’s System of Environmental-Economic Accounting.
  - Global Footprint Network’s National Footprint and Biocapacity Accounts.
- Limitations and cautions:
  - Difficulty in reliably assessing stocks (wildlife, biodiversity, freshwater, soil) and pricing natural assets.
  - Non-linearities: ecosystem service values can jump when stocks decline (example: freshwater cheap when abundant but priceless during drought).
  - Critical natural capital may be non-substitutable and price non-linearities can understate risks.
- Complementary approach:
  - Dashboard reporting of a broad set of human, social and environmental indicators alongside GDP.

### Inclusive transition: distributional and social policies
- Inclusion co-benefits and examples:
  - Mitigation disproportionately benefits the poor; sustainable use of natural assets can provide livelihoods and empower women, who make "more than 40 percent of agriculture labor force around the world."
  - Investment in sustainable urban infrastructure yields widely shared benefits.
  - Ethiopia’s National Forest Sector Development Program aims to reforest "15 percent of the country," contribute "50 percent to the national emission reduction target by 2030," and create "over six hundred thousand jobs – over a quarter of the country’s unemployed (MEFCC 2018)."
  - In the U.S., solar and wind "already employ almost three times as many people as coal" despite a smaller share in energy production.
- Deliberate inclusion measures:
  - Alleviate carbon tax impacts on the poor via well-targeted social transfers or pro-poor public spending.
  - Assist "stranded" workers and regions via job training, reallocation help, and regional investment programs.
  - Provide financial incentives or government programs to enable the poor to comply with efficiency or resilience regulations.
  - Design evacuation plans so the most vulnerable have information and means to escape.
  - Couple conservation and sustainable resource use with mitigating measures for the poor.
- Governance and timing:
  - Maintain inclusive decision-making, stakeholder consultation, and participation of women at all levels.
  - Use macroeconomic stability, secure property rights, effective decentralization, structural reform, social safety nets, and investments in health, education, and infrastructure to smooth transitions.
  - Timing: increase carbon taxation during low commodity price periods; implement structural reform during booms; use recessions to expand financial incentives and investment in sustainable infrastructure.
  - Use carbon tax revenues to compensate losers.

### Post-COVID-19 recovery and sustainability priorities
- Observations:
  - COVID-19 is linked to unsustainable modes of production and heightened pandemic risk from ecosystem degradation.
  - 2020 projection: GHG emissions "are projected to have fallen by a record amount" but rebound has occurred with reopening.
- Recovery recommendations:
  - Ensure compatibility with climate stability and national carbon budgets.
  - Prioritize "rapidly-implementable, labor-intensive public investment with high economic multipliers and large climate co-benefits."
  - Survey-identified priority policies: clean physical infrastructure, building efficiency retrofits, investment in education and training, natural capital investment, and clean R&D (Hepburn, et al. 2020).
  - In lower- and middle-income countries emphasize rural support spending.

### Integrated assessment models (IAMs), risks, and policy guidance
- Methodological caveats:
  - Microeconomic high-frequency temperature analyses may not capture long-term climate change channels (ecosystem collapse, migration, conflict).
  - Two classes of IAMs: process-driven IAMs (focus on pathways and cost-effectiveness for stabilization targets) and cost-benefit IAMs (e.g., DICE) used to estimate social cost of carbon.
- Criticisms of cost-benefit IAMs:
  - Underestimate climate risks by often assuming modest impacts even at high temperature increases (e.g., quadratic damage functions that imply small output losses at 5-6°C).
  - Often assume exogenous population and exclude major impacts like migration, conflict, large-scale loss of life.
  - Fail to account for dynamic benefits of innovation, learning, feedback loops, and second-best settings (credit market failures, knowledge spillovers) that affect abatement costs.
- Policy implication:
  - Rely on precautionary principle and risk aversion to avoid catastrophic outcomes rather than quantitative "optimal" warming paths from IAMs.

### Overarching conclusion and policy framework
- Core message:
  - Business as usual cannot continue; a decade of current GHG emissions remains before global mean temperatures surpass "1.5°C" and risk triggering catastrophic irreversible changes.
- Recommended policy package:
  - Put a price on carbon.
  - Promote sustainable use of natural resources.
  - Align the financial system with climate objectives.
  - Boost public spending on sustainable infrastructure and innovation.
  - Deploy low-carbon industrial and innovation policy.
  - Integrate climate change into public financial management.
  - Build resilience and adapt to coming climatic changes.
  - Improve measurement of well-being and sustainability.
  - Make the transition socially just and inclusive.
- Framing:
  - The transition is an opportunity for long-term prosperity, health, and inclusion if acted on now.

*Source — wpiea2021147-print-pdf (excerpt provided).*

### 6.2 percent of farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia purchased insurance against

### wpiea2021147-print-pdf - 6.2 percent of farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia purchased insurance against

### Insurance uptake and design considerations
- Finding: "6.2 percent of farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia purchased insurance against climate risks in 2011 (GIZ 2016)."
- Finding: "Even in high-income German state Bavaria only 41 percent of residents in high-flood risk areas can afford to buy the insurance (Rodriguez Martinez, Büsing and Leistner 2020)."
- Policy analysis and recommendations:
  - Subsidize insurance for the most vulnerable or for lower-income countries (example: World Bank’s Disaster Risk Financing Insurance) to increase coverage.
  - Caution: improperly designed insurance schemes can reduce incentives to mitigate and adapt (example: subsidized flood insurance may increase housing construction in flood-prone areas).
  - Design detail matters: index insurance for small farmers predicates payments on observable indicators (e.g., rainfall shortage) independent of farmer effort; country-level analogs include ARC, PCRAFI and CCRIF.
  - Example program: R4 Rural Resilience Initiative subsidizes climate risk insurance for the poorest farmers in exchange for work on local climate-resilience projects.

### Structural transformation and labor market policies
- Core insight: Structural transformation should go beyond macroeconomic stability and buffers to facilitate discovery and expansion of new economic activities when climate change renders traditional activity unviable.
- Policy recommendations:
  - Prudent but not excessive regulation of product markets to allow entry/exit, facilitating competition and entrepreneurship.
  - Financial inclusion and financial markets development to help entrepreneurs finance initial ideas.
  - General entrepreneurship support: business training, incubators, financial and logistical support.
  - Labor market focus: active labor market policies (ALMPs) including job training, job-search assistance, well-targeted job and wage subsidies, public works programs, and mental health support (ILO 2017).
  - For highly localized climate impacts, combine ALMPs with phase-out plans, public investment and incentives for diversification, policies to increase social and physical mobility (research, education, transport infrastructure), and early retirement schemes.
- Examples of transition-supporting policies:
  - Philippines’ Green Jobs Act subsidizes hiring and training for environment-preserving jobs.
  - Retraining coal workers for solar energy employment, combined with renewable investment in former coal-mining regions (example cited: North Macedonia).

### Reducing exposure and vulnerability: early warning, private and public resilience investment
- Information and early action:
  - Well-designed early warning systems (EWSs) alert populations about upcoming natural disasters and must be paired with clearly communicated evacuation plans and attention to the poor.
  - Example: During hurricane Katrina in 2005 about "25 percent of New Orleans residents" did not evacuate despite early warning, citing lack of shelter, transportation, health, and unclear government communication.
- Encourage or mandate private resilience investment:
  - Tools: building codes, tax deductions or charges, subsidies, subsidized lending, partial loan guarantees.
  - Examples:
    - Washington D.C.: fee proportional to impervious area reflecting contribution to storm water runoff (DC Water 2020).
    - Singapore: "subsidizes up to 50 percent of installation costs of rooftop and vertical greenery" to mitigate urban heat (Singapore Government 2020).
    - Thailand’s Baan Mankong program: infrastructure subsidies and subsidized housing loans for the urban poor upgrading communities.
    - World Bank’s Global Program for Resilient Housing uses drones, cameras, machine learning to identify highest risk areas (World Bank 2019a).
- Public infrastructure investment:
  - Grey infrastructure: seawalls, levees, drainage, water reservoirs, hurricane-proofing power lines, irrigation systems.
  - Green infrastructure often more efficient and provides co-benefits (mitigation, local economy, health). Examples:
    - Wetland and oyster reef restoration is "the most cost effective way to reduce coastal flooding damage across the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast" (Reguero, et al. 2018).
    - Without coral reefs "annual damage from coastal flooding around the world would double" (Beck, et al. 2018).
  - Resilience of transport systems and supply chains is crucial for food security.
- Public financial management and planning:
  - Incorporate adaptation into medium-term budget frameworks and develop financing plans for adaptation spending.
  - Assessment: in developing countries, financing needs for nationally-determined adaptation goals up to 2030 are likely "six to thirteen times larger than the current level of international adaptation finance (UNEP 2016)."

### Migration, resettlement, and planetary limits
- Observed relocations: Papua New Guinea, China, and Vietnam have relocated communities due to increased flooding vulnerability.
- Projection: "Climate-induced migration in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America is expected to rise by over 140 million people by 2050 – around 2.8 percent of the population of these regions (Kumari Rigaud, et al. 2018)."
- Policy implication: strengthen legal and economic institutions to handle increased, rapid and unpredictable migration flows.
- Special case: sea level rise may lead to disappearance of some sovereign states (SIDS), posing collective action problems for financing adaptation and potential relocation.

### Measuring well-being and sustainability: beyond GDP
- Critique: GDP-focused policy biases against environmental mitigation and sustainable use of natural resources.
- Recommendation: transition System of National Accounts from flow-centered GDP to stock-centered broad capital measures, tracking wealth and natural capital.
- Indexes and approaches cited:
  - UN Environment Programme’s Inclusive Wealth Index (IWI).
  - World Bank’s Changing Wealth of Nations.
  - UN’s System of Environmental-Economic Accounting.
  - Global Footprint Network’s National Footprint and Biocapacity Accounts.
- Limitations and cautions:
  - Difficulty in reliably assessing stocks (wildlife, biodiversity, freshwater, soil) and pricing natural assets.
  - Non-linearities: ecosystem service values can jump when stocks decline (example: freshwater cheap when abundant but priceless during drought).
  - Critical natural capital may be non-substitutable and price non-linearities can understate risks.
- Complementary approach: dashboard reporting of a broad set of human, social and environmental indicators alongside GDP.
- Policy use: employ wealth indexes and dashboards for ex-ante and ex-post policy evaluation; embed planetary boundaries (e.g., national annual carbon budgets binding on policy).

### Inclusive transition: distributional and social policies
- Inclusion co-benefits:
  - Mitigation disproportionately benefits the poor; sustainable use of natural assets can provide livelihoods and empower women, who make "more than 40 percent of agriculture labor force around the world."
  - Investment in sustainable urban infrastructure yields widely shared benefits.
  - Climate policies create job and training opportunities; example: Ethiopia’s National Forest Sector Development Program aims to reforest "15 percent of the country," contribute "50 percent to the national emission reduction target by 2030," and create "over six hundred thousand jobs – over a quarter of the country’s unemployed (MEFCC 2018)."
  - In the U.S., solar and wind "already employ almost three times as many people as coal" despite a smaller share in energy production.
- Deliberate inclusion measures:
  - Alleviate carbon tax impacts on the poor via well-targeted social transfers or pro-poor public spending.
  - Assist "stranded" workers and regions via job training, reallocation help, and regional investment programs.
  - Provide financial incentives or government programs to enable the poor to comply with efficiency or resilience regulations.
  - Design evacuation plans so the most vulnerable have information and means to escape.
  - Couple conservation and sustainable resource use with mitigating measures for the poor.
- Governance and timing:
  - Maintain inclusive decision-making, stakeholder consultation, and participation of women at all levels.
  - Use macroeconomic stability, secure property rights, effective decentralization, structural reform, social safety nets, and investments in health, education, and infrastructure to smooth transitions.
  - Timing: increase carbon taxation during low commodity price periods; implement structural reform during booms; use recessions to expand financial incentives and investment in sustainable infrastructure.
  - Use carbon tax revenues to compensate losers.

### Post-COVID-19 recovery and sustainability priorities
- Observation: COVID-19 is linked to unsustainable modes of production and heightened pandemic risk from ecosystem degradation.
- 2020 projection: GHG emissions "are projected to have fallen by a record amount" but rebound has occurred with reopening.
- Recommendation for recovery plans:
  - Ensure compatibility with climate stability and national carbon budgets.
  - Prioritize "rapidly-implementable, labor-intensive public investment with high economic multipliers and large climate co-benefits."
  - Survey-identified priority policies: clean physical infrastructure, building efficiency retrofits, investment in education and training, natural capital investment, and clean R&D (Hepburn, et al. 2020).
  - In lower- and middle-income countries emphasize rural support spending.

### Integrated assessment models (IAMs), risks, and policy guidance
- Methodological caveats:
  - Microeconomic high-frequency temperature analyses may not capture long-term climate change channels (ecosystem collapse, migration, conflict).
  - Two classes of IAMs: process-driven IAMs (focus on pathways and cost-effectiveness for stabilization targets) and cost-benefit IAMs (e.g., DICE) used to estimate social cost of carbon.
- Criticisms of cost-benefit IAMs:
  - Underestimate climate risks by often assuming modest impacts even at high temperature increases (e.g., quadratic damage functions that imply small output losses at 5-6°C).
  - Often assume exogenous population and exclude major impacts like migration, conflict, large-scale loss of life.
  - Fail to account for dynamic benefits of innovation, learning, feedback loops, and second-best settings (credit market failures, knowledge spillovers) that affect abatement costs.
- Policy implication: rely on precautionary principle and risk aversion to avoid catastrophic outcomes rather than quantitative "optimal" warming paths from IAMs.

### Overarching conclusion and policy framework
- Core message: Business as usual cannot continue; a decade of current GHG emissions remains before global mean temperatures surpass "1.5°C" and risk triggering catastrophic irreversible changes.
- Policy package recommended:
  - Put a price on carbon.
  - Promote sustainable use of natural resources.
  - Align the financial system with climate objectives.
  - Boost public spending on sustainable infrastructure and innovation.
  - Deploy low-carbon industrial and innovation policy.
  - Integrate climate change into public financial management.
  - Build resilience and adapt to coming climatic changes.
  - Improve measurement of well-being and sustainability.
  - Make the transition socially just and inclusive.
- Framing: The transition is an opportunity for long-term prosperity, health, and inclusion if acted on now.

*Italic: Source — wpiea2021147-print-pdf (excerpt provided).*

### 2019. Integrating Green and Gray: Creating Next Generation Infrastructure. Washington

### wpiea2021147-print-pdf - 2019. Integrating Green and Gray: Creating Next Generation Infrastructure. Washington

### Major themes and topical coverage in the reference list
- Climate change science and impacts (examples: IPCC 2014; IPCC 2018; Diffenbaugh and Burke 2019; Houser et al. 2015).
- Economic effects of temperature and weather shocks (examples: Burke, Hsiang, and Miguel 2015; Dell, Jones, and Olken 2012; Hsiang, Oliva, and Walker 2019).
- Nature-based solutions, biodiversity, and ecosystem accounting (examples: Deutz et al. 2020; Dasgupta 2021; Hein et al. 2020; IPBES 2020).
- Climate finance, fiscal policy, and macroeconomic responses (examples: Farid et al. 2016; Eyraud et al. 2021; Independent Experts Group on Climate Finance 2020).
- Energy transition, decarbonization, and fossil fuel subsidy reform (examples: IEA 2019; IEA 2021; Coady et al. 2019; Carbon Tracker Initiative 2015).
- Infrastructure resilience and adaptation (examples: Hallegatte et al. 2019; Hallegate et al. 2013).
- Policy instruments: carbon pricing, markets, and regulatory measures (examples: Klenert et al. 2018; EU 2020; EDF 2020).
- Health, pollution, and environmental risk (examples: Lelieveld et al. 2020; Filippelli et al. 2020).
- Agricultural, fisheries, and land-use implications (examples: FAO 2018; Cabral et al. 2020; Folberth et al. 2020).

### Representative cited works with exact bibliographic details and numeric fidelity
- Burke, Marshall, Solomon M. Hsiang, and Edward Miguel. 2015. "Global Non-linear Effect of Temperature on Economic Production." Nature 527: 235-239.
- Cabral, Reniel B., Darcy Bradley, Juan Mayorga, Whitney Goodell, Alan M. Friedlander, Enric Sala, Christopher Costello, and Steven D. Gaines. 2020. "A Global Network of Marine Protected Areas for Food." PNAS 117 (45): 28134-28139.
- Caldecott, Ben. 2020. "With the TCFD in Its Fifth Year, It’s Time to Make ‘Net Zero’ Mandatory for Financial Institutions." Responsible Investor. July 29.
- Carbon Tracker Initiative. 2015. "The US Coal Crash –   Evidence for Structural Change."
- Coady, David, Ian Parry, Nghia-Piotr Le, and Baoping Shang. 2019. "Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Remain Large: An Update Based on Country-Level Estimates." IMF Working Paper No. 19/89.
- Deutz, Andrew, Geoffrey M. Heal, Rose Niu, Eric Swanson, Terry Townshend, Zhu Li, Alejandro Delmar, Alqayam Meghji, Suresh A. Sethi, and John Tobin-de la Puente. 2020. Financing Nature: Closing the Global Biodiversity Gap.
- Diffenbaugh, Noah S., and Marshall Burke. 2019. "Global Warming Has Increased Global Economic Inequality." PNAS 116 (20): 9808-9813.
- Farid, Mai, Michael Keen, Michael Papaioannou, Ian Parry, Catherine Patillo, Ter-Martirosyan Anna, and et al. 2016. "After Paris: Fiscal, Macroeconomic, and Financial Implications of Climate Change." IMF Staff Discussion Note 16/01.
- Hallegatte, Stephane, Jun Rentschler, and Julie Rozenberg. 2019. Lifelines : The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. Washington D.C.: World Bank.
- IPCC. 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. Geneva: IPCC.
- IPCC. 2018. Global Warming of 1.5°C. Special Report, International Panel on Climate Change.
- Klenert, David, Linus Mattauch, Emmanuel Combet, Ottmar Edenhofer, Cameron Hepburn, Ryan Rafaty, and Nicholas Stern. 2018. "Making Carbon Pricing Work for Citizens." Nature Climate Change 8: 669-677.
- Lüthi, Dieter, Martine Le Floch, Bernhard Bereiter, Thomas Blunier, Jean-Marc Barnola, and Urs Siegenthaler. 2008. "High-Resolution Carbon Dioxide Concentration Record 650,000–800,000 Years Before Present." Nature 453: 379-382.
- NOAA. 2020. State of the Climate: Global Climate Report for Annual 2019.
- Nordhaus, William. 2013. The Climate Casino: Risk, Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming World. Yale University Press.
- Nordhaus, William. 2014. "Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon: Concepts and Results from the DICE-2013R Model and Alternative Approaches." Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 1 (1/2): 273-312.

### Implied analytical emphasis and policy directions reflected in the citations
- Integrating green (nature-based) and gray (built) infrastructure to enhance resilience and deliver sustainable development, as reflected by multiple citations on resilient infrastructure, nature-based solutions, and financing biodiversity.
- Using fiscal, macroeconomic, and financial policy tools to mitigate and adapt to climate change (IMF Staff Discussion Note 16/01; Farid et al. 2016; Eyraud et al. 2021).
- Importance of carbon pricing, subsidy reform, and market instruments to shift incentives (Coady et al. 2019; Klenert et al. 2018; EU 2020).
- The role of technological change, investment, and public policy in accelerating energy transitions (IEA 2019; IEA 2021; McKinsey&Company 2009).
- Recognition of distributional impacts and the need for inclusive policy design (Diffenbaugh and Burke 2019; Klenert et al. 2018; ILO 2017).

*Reference: wpiea2021147-print-pdf - 2019. Integrating Green and Gray: Creating Next Generation Infrastructure. Washington*

### 2020. https://thecityfix.com/blog/thailands-inclusive-upgrading-informal-settlements-

### wpiea2021147-print-pdf - 2020. https://thecityfix.com/blog/thailands-inclusive-upgrading-informal-settlements-

### Nature, climate science, and ecological risks
- References addressing climate science, ecological thresholds, and abrupt changes:
  - Rockström, Johan, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Asa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin III, and et al. 2009. "A Safe Operating Space for Humanity." Nature 461: 472-475.
  - Trisos, Christopher H., Cory Merow, and Alex L. Pigot. 2020. "The Projected Timing of Abrupt Ecological Disruption from Climate Change." Nature 580: 496-501.
  - Staal, Arie, Ingo Fetzer, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Joyce H. C. Bosmans, Stefan C. Dekker, Egbert H. van Nes, Johan Rockström, and Obbe A. Tuinenburg. 2020. "Hysteresis of Tropical Forests in the 21st Century." Nature Communications 11 (4978).
  - Westerhold, Thomas, Norbert Marwan, Anna Joy Drury, Diederik Liebrand, Claudia Agnini, Eleni Anagnostou, and et al. 2020. "An Astronomically Dated Record of Earth's Climate and Its Predictability over the Last 66 Million Years." Science 369 (6509): 1383-1387.
  - Solomon, Susan. 2019. "The Discovery of the Antarctic Ozone Hole." Nature 575: 46-47.
  - Preuss, Paul. 2008. IMPACTS: On the Threshold of Abrupt Climate Changes. feature story, Berkeley Lab.

### Biodiversity, ecosystems, and natural capital
- Citations on species, ecosystem services, forest tenure, and restoration:
  - Paolucci, Lucas N., Rogério L. Pereira, Ludmila Rattis, Divino V. Silvério, Nubia C. S. Marques, Marcia N. Macedo, and Paulo M. Brando. 2019. "Lowland Tapirs Facilitate Seed Dispersal in Degraded Amazonian Forests." Biotropica 51 (2): 245-252.
  - Sumatran Rhino Rescue. 2020. A Groundbreaking Partnership to Save the Sumatran Rhino from Extinction. Accessed May 1, 2020.
  - White, Andy, and Alejandra Martin. 2002. Who Owns the World's Forests? Forest Tenure and Public Forests in Transition. Washington, D.C.: Forest Trends.
  - Turner, Kerry, Thomas Badure, and Silvia Ferrini. 2019. "Natural Capital Accounting Perspectives: a Pragmatic Way Forward." Ecosystem Health and Sustainability 5 (1): 237-241.
  - Rambaud, Alexandre, and Clément Feger. 2020. Improving Nature’s Visibility in Financial Accounting - CARE & Ecosystem-Centred Accounting. Natural Capital Coalition.

### Climate policy, economics, and carbon pricing
- Works focused on carbon pricing, social cost of carbon, and economic policy responses:
  - Rafaty, Ryan, Geoffroy Dolphin, and Felix Pretis. 2020. Carbon pricing and the elasticity of CO2. Cambridge: Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 20116.
  - Stern, Nicholas, and Joseph Stiglitz. 2017. Report of the High Level Commission on Carbon Pricing. Paper of the Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition, Washington D.C.: World Bank.
  - Stern, Nicholas, and Joseph Stiglitz. 2021. The Social Cost of Carbon, Risk, Distribution, Market Failures: An Alternative Approach. NBER Working Paper 28472.
  - Weitzman, Martin L. 1974. "Prices vs. Quantities." Review of Economic Studies 41 (4): 477-491.
  - Weitzman, Martin L. 2011. "Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change." Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 5 (2): 275-292.
  - Robins, Nick. 2020. The Road to Net-Zero Finance. Report of the Advisory Group on Finance for the UK’s Climate Change Committee. London: Climate Change Committee.

### Climate finance, central banking, and sustainable finance measures
- Sources on the role of finance, central banks, and policy instruments for greening finance:
  - Oustry, Antoine, Bunyamin Erkan, Romain Svartzman, and Pierre-François Weber. 2020. Climate-related Risks and Central Banks’ Collateral Policy: A Methodological Experiment. Paris: Banque de France Working Paper No. 790.
  - Robins, Nick, Simon Dikau, and Ulrich Volz. 2021. Net-zero central banking: A new phase in greening the financial system. London: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economcis and Political Science and SOAS Center for Sustainable Finance.
  - Villeroy de Galhau, François. 2021. The Role of Central Banks in the Greening of the Economy. Paris: Speech at the 5th edition of the Rencontres on ‘Climate Change and Sustainable Finance’, organized jointly with Option Finance, February 11.
  - Oman, William, and Romain Svartzman. 2021. "What Justifies Sustainable Finance Measures? Financial-Economic Interactions and Possible Implications for Policymakers." CESifo Forum 3/2021 (22): 3-11.
  - The Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Actions. 2020. "Better Recovery, Better World: Resetting Climate Action in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Pandemic."

### Adaptation, resilience, and risk management
- Works on disaster risk reduction, insurance, water security, and resilient housing:
  - UN. 2015. Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. United Nations.
  - Surminski, Swenja, Laurence M. Bouwer, and Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer. 2016. "How Insurance Can Support Climate Resilience." Nature Climate Change 6: 333-334.
  - World Bank. 2018. Beyond Scarcity : Water Security in the Middle East and North Africa. Washington D.C.: World Bank.
  - World Bank. 2019a. "Global Program for Resilient Housing." Brief.
  - PEFA. 2020. Climate Responsive Public Financial Management Framework (PEFA Climate). Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability.

### Public policy, governance, and inclusive growth
- References exploring governance frameworks, inclusive growth, and public investment:
  - OECD. 2016. "Governance of Inclusive Growth."
  - Ostrom, Elinor. 1990. Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action. Cambridge University Press.
  - Ostrom, Elinor. 2010. "Beyond Markets and States : Polycentric Governance of Complex Economic Systems." American Economic Review 100: 641-672.
  - Schwartz, Gerd, Manal Fouad, Torben Hansen, and Geneviève Verdier. 2020. Well Spent: How Strong Infrastructure Governance Can End Waste in Public Investment. Washington D.C.: IMF.
  - The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. 2018. "Unlocking the Inclusive Growth Story of the 21st Century: Accelerating Climate Action in Urgent Times." The New Climate Economy report.

### Health, pandemics, and environmental links
- Citations linking habitat destruction, zoonoses, and pandemic origins:
  - Vidal, John. 2020. "Destroyed Habitat Creates the Perfect Conditions for Coronavirus to Emerge." ENSIE. March 18. Accessed March 21, 2020.
  - WHO. 2021. WHO-convened Global Study of Origins of SARS-CoV-2: China Part. World Health Organization.
  - Zhong, Zhi-Ping, Natalie E. Solonenko, Yueh-Fen Li, Maria C. Gazitúa, Simon Roux, and Mary E. Davis. 2020. Glacier Ice Archives Fifteen-Thousand-Year-Old Viruses. preprint, bioRxiv.

### Data sources, tools, and assessments
- Datasets and analytical tools cited:
  - WRI. 2019. GREEN TARGETS: A Tool To Compare Private Sector Banks’ Sustainable Finance Commitments (as of July 2019). World Resources Institute.
  - World Bank. 2019. Carbon Pricing Dashboard. November 1. Accessed March 27, 2020.
  - SEDAC. 2020. Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project. Accessed April 15, 2020.
  - WRI. 2019a. "Updated Global Water Risk Atlas Reveals Top Water-Stressed Countries and States." World Resources Institute. August 6.

*Extracted from the reference list of the content unit.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2021/english/wpiea2021147-print-pdf.pdf_