## Reported Social Unrest Index: May 2023 Update (WP/23/168)

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Reported Social Unrest Index: May 2023 Update (WP/23/168)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2023/english/wpiea2023168-print-pdf.pdf)

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### Introduction and main findings
- This paper is an update to Barrett et al. (2022), extending the Reported Social Unrest Index (RSUI) dataset to May 2023 and reviewing major incidents of social unrest since March 2022.
- Key finding: Since early 2022, social unrest has been broadly stable with the fraction of countries experiencing major unrest events remaining roughly constant.
- The paper groups unrest events since March 2022 into three broad themes: (1) national debate over constitutional issues, (2) protests connected to specific policies, and (3) other generalized disorder.
- Coverage: The original RSUI measured major social unrest events in 130 countries at monthly frequency from the late 1980s to March 2022; this update extends coverage to May 2023.

### Background: The Reported Social Unrest Index (RSUI) and validation
- Construction and purpose:
  - The RSUI proxies major social unrest events by counting articles that include terms related to social unrest across a variety of media sources.
  - Barrett et al. (2022) provide a comprehensive analysis and formalize identification of spikes to systematically label major unrest events.
- Validation and robustness:
  - The RSUI shows a strong correlation between large spikes and key events in authoritative narrative accounts.
  - The measure is not significantly affected by variations in search criteria, source used, language of sources, nor time since the last event.
- Uses and applications:
  - RSUI-identified events have been used to show that real economic outcomes deteriorate following an unrest event (Hadzi-Vaskov et al. 2023; Hlatshwayo and Redl 2022).
  - Machine learning studies have used RSUI events as the outcome variable to predict unrest likelihood (Hlatshwayo and Redl 2021).
  - A daily version of the RSUI has been used to identify stock market responses to unrest events (Barrett et al. 2021).
  - Outside the IMF, RSUI has been used in macroeconomic forecasting and in analyses of uncertainty and unrest (Diakonova et al. 2022; Diakonova et al. 2023).

### Social unrest since March 2022 — major themes and illustrative cases

- Protests Relating to Constitutional Issues
  - Characterization: Constitutional debates pertain to the nature or remit of the state and tend to be longer-lasting and require more dramatic changes to address.
  - Notable events (March 2022 – May 2023):
    - July 2022: Unrest in the Karakalpakstan region of Uzbekistan over a proposed change in status from autonomous republic to a province.
    - Autumn 2022: Large and widespread anti-government protests in Iran.
    - December 2022 into early 2023: Peru experienced a constitutional crisis after the President’s attempt to dissolve Congress amid impending impeachment, leading to protests and violence.
    - January 2023: Large crowds stormed the Brazilian Congress, Supreme Court, and Presidential palace.
    - March 2023: Large-scale protests and counter-protests in Israel following proposed reforms altering the balance of power between the judiciary and other branches of government.

- Specific Policy-related Unrests
  - Characterization: Events driven by routine or discrete policy issues rather than foundational constitutional questions.
  - Notable events:
    - May 2022: Sri Lanka unrest driven by grievances over the deteriorating economic situation, fueling ongoing anti-government protests.
    - November 2022: Demonstrations in China prior to relaxation of zero-Covid policy.
    - Late 2022 and May 2023: Serbia saw demonstrations over disparate issues and later anti-gun protests after two mass shooting incidents in May 2023.
    - March 2023: Protests in France in response to proposed reforms to the pension system.
    - March 2023: Protests in Georgia against a proposed law requiring registration of foreign-funded NGOs and media outlets.

- Generalized Disorder
  - Characterization: Events reflecting generalized breakdowns in order, including ethnic violence, police action, and politically charged disorder.
  - Notable events:
    - May 2022: Tajikistan—ethnic tensions led to clashes between security forces and protesters in the autonomous region of Gorno-Badakhshan.
    - May 2022: Chad—protests after security forces fired upon demonstrators.
    - April 2022: Sweden—riots erupted over religious tensions.
    - January 2023: Sweden—protests in favor of Sweden’s accession to NATO.

### Data presentation notes and interpretation
- Normalization: The RSUI is normalized to average 100 for each country in each chart (e.g., figures labeled “RSUI March 2022 – May 2023, avg.=100”).
- Comparability caveat: Differences in media coverage and interest across countries mean that the level of the RSUI is not directly comparable across countries; spikes are relative to each country’s own average levels.

*Prepared by Philip Barrett and Euihyun Bae; IMF Working Paper WP/23/168, June 2023.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2023/english/wpiea2023168-print-pdf.pdf_