## Appendix I. Climate-related disasters in Mexico

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---

### Exposure and hazard overview
- Mexico is highly exposed to disasters associated with acute physical climate change risks, such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, and heatwaves.
- During the last two decades, floods and tropical cyclones have constituted a substantial hazard burden among hydrometeorological disasters in Mexico, in both frequency and people impacted, with more than 15 million people affected by these hazards over the last two decades.
- Mexico is also subject to substantial non-climate natural disaster risk, including earthquakes.
- Other acute risks (drought, heatwaves) and chronic risks (e.g., sea level rise) may be substantial; for example:
  - 80 percent of farmers in Mexico are smallholder farmers, with limited access to credit and insurance, and a reliance on rainfed production, implying high vulnerability to drought risk.
  - Modeling suggests potential for substantial economic losses from chronic risks such as loss of coastal ecosystem services.

### Tropical cyclones: characteristics and impacts
- Exposure and drivers:
  - Mexico is exposed to tropical cyclones from both the Atlantic and Pacific basins; similar numbers of major hurricane landfalls originate from these two basins.
  - Tropical cyclones impact coastlines with strong winds, heavy precipitation, and storm surges; Mexico’s coastal mountain ranges increase rainfall via orographic lifting, often producing heavy rainfall and substantial flooding that can extend inland.
  - Sea level rise may exacerbate storm surge risk associated with tropical cyclones.
- Historical impacts (examples and magnitudes):
  - Eight of the ten topmost impactful tropical cyclone events in Mexico since 2020 impacted states overlooking the Gulf of Mexico (CENAPRED).
  - Hurricane Karl and Tropical Storm Matthew in Veracruz in 2010 caused 25 billion MXN of economic losses and affected more than 500,000 people.
  - Hurricane Alex in 2010 caused 25 billion MXN of economic losses and affected 650,000 people.
- Spatial vulnerability note:
  - Due to inland location, potential for tropical cyclones with high wind speeds impacting Mexico City is relatively low compared with coastal regions.

### Flood types, drivers, and historical impacts
- Flood typology:
  - River floods: overflow of rivers, lakes, or other waterbodies onto adjacent land.
  - Pluvial floods: inundation from extreme rainfall independent of overflowing waterbodies.
  - Coastal floods: commonly driven by storm surge from tropical cyclones.
- Drivers and seasonality:
  - Major drivers of rainfall in Mexico include tropical cyclones and easterly waves during summer, and cold fronts during winter; the rainy season runs from June to November.
- Historical impactful events:
  - The most impactful flood events over the past two decades occurred in Tabasco and surrounding states (Chiapas, Veracruz, Oaxaca and Puebla).
  - October 2007 floods in Tabasco and surrounding states resulted in economic losses of more than 35 billion MXN and affected more than 2 million people.
  - Floods in Mexico City are typically pluvial and restricted to a few neighborhoods.

### Climate change projections and uncertainty
- Tropical cyclone frequency and intensity projections:
  - Projections of changes in tropical cyclone frequency and severity are subject to considerable uncertainty, especially at basin or sub-basin scale.
  - Basin-scale projection under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5:
    - Tropical cyclone frequency estimated to decrease in the North Atlantic and increase in the Northeast Pacific (Knutson and others, 2015).
  - Both basins are expected to experience an increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones of at least Saffir-Simpson Category 4 intensity (Knutson and others, 2015).
  - Results at sub-basin scale vary; e.g., intense hurricanes projected to be more frequent in the Yucatan Peninsula under RCP 8.5 (Appendini and others, 2019), while other studies find only minor changes in extreme wind speeds in future climate (SSP 5-8.5; 2015-2050 vs 1980-2017) (Bloemendaal and others, 2022).
- Precipitation and extreme precipitation changes:
  - Tropical cyclone precipitation is projected to increase, with projected increases ranging from ~5 percent to 40 percent (Knutson and others, 2020); Bruyère et al. (2017) found likely future increased precipitation for tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico.
  - Extreme precipitation in Mexico:
    - The historical (1985-2014) 1-in-100-year maximum 5-day cumulative precipitation for Mexico is expected to occur with a return period of less than 50 years by the end of the century under SSP5-8.5 (WB, 2021a).
    - The historical 1-in-100-year maximum 1-day cumulative precipitation is expected to occur with a return period of less than 40 years by the end of the century under SSP5-8.5.
- Flood risk uncertainty:
  - Changes in antecedent conditions (e.g., reduced soil moisture due to increased temperature) and other factors may influence flood risk; some studies project increased flood risk in Mexico, while others find potential decreases in some regions (including Tabasco and other southeastern states). Overall, there is substantial uncertainty in flood risk projections for Mexico.

### Historical frequency of events (EMDAT criteria, 2000–2021)
- Table 2 summary (number of EMDAT events meeting criteria 2000-2021; mean values preserved exactly):
  - Flash flood: Mean 0.55
  - Riverine flood: Mean 0.91
  - Tropical cyclone: Mean 3.09
  - Total: Mean 4.55
- Note: EMDAT inclusion criteria include at least one of: (i) 10 or more deaths; (ii) 100 or more people affected; or (iii) declaration of state of emergency or appeal for international assistance.

### Event scenarios analyzed
- Scenario TC1:
  - North Atlantic tropical cyclone event with two landfalls in Mexico.
  - First landfall: Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 4 hurricane.
  - Second landfall: Tamaulipas in northeast Mexico with lower wind speeds (Tropical Storm / Category 1 hurricane) but heavy rainfall impacting Nuevo León, including Monterrey.
  - Comparators: Janet 1955, Gilbert 1988, Wilma 2005, Dean 2007 (for initial landfall); 1909 Monterrey Hurricane, Hurricane Beulah 1967, Hurricane Gilbert 1988, Hurricane Alex 2010 (for second landfall).
- Scenario TC2:
  - Two tropical cyclones impacting the state of Veracruz 10 days apart with heavy precipitation.
  - Based on 2010 sequence (Hurricane Karl and Tropical Storm Matthew) which resulted in substantial damages mainly due to flooding.
- Scenario TC3:
  - Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone making landfall at Manzanillo, Colima as a Category 4 hurricane and impacting Guadalajara, Jalisco as a Category 1-2 hurricane.
  - Comparator: Hurricane Patricia 2015; estimated losses from TC3 are higher than Hurricane Patricia because Patricia did not directly hit Manzanillo and Guadalajara exposure concentrations.
  - Event selection source: STORM global synthetic tropical cyclone hazard dataset (Bloemendaal and others, 2020).
- Scenario F1:
  - River flood event in Tabasco and surrounding states.
  - Based on historical floods including the 2007 Tabasco floods; key contributing factors include heavy rains associated with combination of a cold front and tropical storm Noel and release of water from the Peñitas dam.
  - The 2007 event was estimated to have a 1-in-100-year return period in the region (Ramos and others, 2009).
  - Tabasco has experienced frequent flood events including 1993, 1999, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2020.
- Scenario ES1 (extreme season):
  - Sequence of several extreme tropical cyclone and flood events occurring within a few months: TC1, TC2, TC3 and F1.
  - Included to analyze potential for substantial economic and financial impacts from a series of extreme events affecting different parts of the country in close succession.
  - Historical precedent: 2010 had multiple severe events (Hurricane Alex, Hurricane Karl, Tropical Storm Matthew, and flooding in Tabasco); aggregated economic losses in 2010 were higher than any other year in 2000-2020 per CENAPRED, though still estimated at less than 1 percent of GDP.

### Reference and methodological scope (excerpted references and datasets)
- Scope and cross-cutting themes:
  - References focus on climate change impacts on tropical cyclones, flood risk, coastal ecosystems, and economic/financial consequences.
  - Cross-cutting themes include tropical cyclone behaviour and projections under anthropogenic warming; flood hazard modelling and flood depth–damage functions; economic valuation of coastal ecosystem services and adaptation strategies; financial stability, banking sector exposures, and climate stress testing; compound, cascading, and clustered extreme events and methodology for catastrophe model uncertainty.
- Key referenced datasets, models, and resources:
  - Copernicus Global Land Service: Land Cover 100m: collection 3: epoch 2019: Globe.
  - GHS settlement grid and GHS population grid multitemporal R2019A.
  - EM-DAT Database, Université Catholique de Louvain.
  - World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (Mexico: extremes).
  - Global flood hazard and flood depth–damage resources: Hirabayashi et al. (2021); Huizinga, De Moel and Szewczyk (2017); Sampson et al. (2015).
- Notable technical and methodological references (examples preserved exactly as cited):
  - Knutson et al., 2020 — "Tropical cyclones and climate change assessment: Part II: Projected response to anthropogenic warming."
  - Knutson et al., 2015 — Dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios for intense tropical cyclone projections.
  - Bloemendaal and others, 2020 — STORM global synthetic tropical cyclone hazard dataset.
- Economic, ecological, and adaptation analysis references (examples):
  - Haer et al., 2017 — Cost-benefit analysis of flood protection in Tabasco, Mexico.
  - Haer et al., 2018 — Coastal and river flood risk analyses for Mexico and guidance for flood adaptation policies.
  - Fernández-Díaz et al., 2022 — Valuation of loss of coastal ecosystem services in Mexico facing sea level rise.
  - Hallegatte, S., 2015 — Indirect cost of natural disasters and economic definition of macroeconomic resilience.
  - Hallegatte et al., 2022a/b — Macroeconomic consequences and bank stress testing frameworks for physical risks under climate change.
- Financial stability and policy-focused works (examples):
  - Financial Stability Board (FSB), 2020 — "The Implications of Climate Change for Financial Stability."
  - European Central Bank, 2021 — "Climate-related risks to financial stability."
  - Danmarks Nationalbank, 2021 — Flood risk impact on credit institutions’ exposures.
  - Ranger, Mahul & Monasterolo, 2021 and 2022 — Managing financial risks from climate shocks and framework for scenario generation.
- Studies on compound and sequential hazards (examples):
  - Zscheischler et al., 2018 — Future climate risk from compound events.
  - Xi, Lin & Gori, 2023 — Increasing sequential tropical cyclone hazards along the US East and Gulf coasts.
  - Pescaroli & Alexander, 2018 — Framework for compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks.
  - Kopp et al., 2017 — Potential surprises—compound extremes and tipping elements.
- Publication and dataset identifiers preserved exactly as cited:
  - Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9694.
  - NCAR Tech Note. NCAR/TN535
  - ISBN 978-92-79-67781-6
  - Working Paper No. 2022/163.
  - p.1520.
  - GHS-BUILT R2018A and GHS-POP R2019A.
  - DOI: 10.2760/16510; JRC105688.
  - DOI: 10.5772/8322.
  - DOI: 10.2905/42E8BE89-54FF-464E-BE7B-BF9E64DA5218

*Source: Appendix I. Climate-related disasters in Mexico.*

### Appendix I. Climate-related disasters in Mexico

### Appendix I. Climate-related disasters in Mexico

### Exposure and hazard overview
- Mexico is highly exposed to disasters associated with acute physical climate change risks, such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, and heatwaves.
- During the last two decades, floods and tropical cyclones have constituted a substantial hazard burden among hydrometeorological disasters in Mexico, in both frequency and people impacted, with more than 15 million people affected by these hazards over the last two decades.
- Mexico is also subject to substantial non-climate natural disaster risk, including earthquakes.
- Other acute risks (drought, heatwaves) and chronic risks (e.g., sea level rise) may be substantial; for example:
  - 80 percent of farmers in Mexico are smallholder farmers, with limited access to credit and insurance, and a reliance on rainfed production, implying high vulnerability to drought risk.
  - Modeling suggests potential for substantial economic losses from chronic risks such as loss of coastal ecosystem services.

### Tropical cyclones: characteristics and impacts
- Mexico is exposed to tropical cyclones from both the Atlantic and Pacific basins; similar numbers of major hurricane landfalls originate from these two basins.
- Tropical cyclones impact coastlines with strong winds, heavy precipitation, and storm surges; Mexico’s coastal mountain ranges increase rainfall via orographic lifting, often producing heavy rainfall and substantial flooding that can extend inland.
- Eight of the ten topmost impactful tropical cyclone events in Mexico since 2020 impacted states overlooking the Gulf of Mexico (CENAPRED).
- Examples of historical impacts and losses:
  - Hurricane Karl and Tropical Storm Matthew in Veracruz in 2010 caused 25 billion MXN of economic losses and affected more than 500,000 people.
  - Hurricane Alex in 2010 caused 25 billion MXN of economic losses and affected 650,000 people.
- Due to inland location, potential for tropical cyclones with high wind speeds impacting Mexico City is relatively low compared with coastal regions.
- Sea level rise may exacerbate storm surge risk associated with tropical cyclones.

### Flood types, drivers, and historical impacts
- Mexico experiences river floods, pluvial floods, and coastal floods.
  - River floods: overflow of rivers, lakes, or other waterbodies onto adjacent land.
  - Pluvial floods: inundation from extreme rainfall independent of overflowing waterbodies.
  - Coastal floods: commonly driven by storm surge from tropical cyclones.
- Major drivers of rainfall in Mexico include tropical cyclones and easterly waves during summer, and cold fronts during winter; the rainy season runs from June to November.
- The most impactful flood events over the past two decades occurred in Tabasco and surrounding states (Chiapas, Veracruz, Oaxaca and Puebla):
  - October 2007 floods in Tabasco and surrounding states resulted in economic losses of more than 35 billion MXN and affected more than 2 million people.
- Floods in Mexico City are typically pluvial and restricted to a few neighborhoods.

### Climate change projections and uncertainty
- Projections of changes in tropical cyclone frequency and severity are subject to considerable uncertainty, especially at basin or sub-basin scale.
  - Basin-scale projection under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5:
    - Tropical cyclone frequency estimated to decrease in the North Atlantic and increase in the Northeast Pacific (Knutson and others, 2015).
  - Both basins are expected to experience an increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones of at least Saffir-Simpson Category 4 intensity (Knutson and others, 2015).
  - Results at sub-basin scale vary; e.g., intense hurricanes projected to be more frequent in the Yucatan Peninsula under RCP 8.5 (Appendini and others, 2019), while other studies find only minor changes in extreme wind speeds in future climate (SSP 5-8.5; 2015-2050 vs 1980-2017) (Bloemendaal and others, 2022).
- Tropical cyclone precipitation is projected to increase, with projected increases ranging from ~5 percent to 40 percent (Knutson and others, 2020); Bruyère et al. (2017) found likely future increased precipitation for tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico.
- Extreme precipitation in Mexico:
  - The historical (1985-2014) 1-in-100-year maximum 5-day cumulative precipitation for Mexico is expected to occur with a return period of less than 50 years by the end of the century under SSP5-8.5 (WB, 2021a).
  - The historical 1-in-100-year maximum 1-day cumulative precipitation is expected to occur with a return period of less than 40 years by the end of the century under SSP5-8.5.
- Changes in antecedent conditions (e.g., reduced soil moisture due to increased temperature) and other factors may influence flood risk; some studies project increased flood risk in Mexico, while others find potential decreases in some regions (including Tabasco and other southeastern states). Overall, there is substantial uncertainty in flood risk projections for Mexico.

### Historical frequency of events (EMDAT criteria, 2000–2021)
- Table 2 summary (number of EMDAT events meeting criteria 2000-2021; mean values preserved exactly):
  - Flash flood: Mean 0.55
  - Riverine flood: Mean 0.91
  - Tropical cyclone: Mean 3.09
  - Total: Mean 4.55
- Note: EMDAT inclusion criteria include at least one of: (i) 10 or more deaths; (ii) 100 or more people affected; or (iii) declaration of state of emergency or appeal for international assistance.

### Event scenarios analyzed
- Scenario TC1:
  - North Atlantic tropical cyclone event with two landfalls in Mexico.
  - First landfall: Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 4 hurricane.
  - Second landfall: Tamaulipas in northeast Mexico with lower wind speeds (Tropical Storm / Category 1 hurricane) but heavy rainfall impacting Nuevo León, including Monterrey.
  - Comparators: Janet 1955, Gilbert 1988, Wilma 2005, Dean 2007 (for initial landfall); 1909 Monterrey Hurricane, Hurricane Beulah 1967, Hurricane Gilbert 1988, Hurricane Alex 2010 (for second landfall).
- Scenario TC2:
  - Two tropical cyclones impacting the state of Veracruz 10 days apart with heavy precipitation.
  - Based on 2010 sequence (Hurricane Karl and Tropical Storm Matthew) which resulted in substantial damages mainly due to flooding.
- Scenario TC3:
  - Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone making landfall at Manzanillo, Colima as a Category 4 hurricane and impacting Guadalajara, Jalisco as a Category 1-2 hurricane.
  - Comparator: Hurricane Patricia 2015; estimated losses from TC3 are higher than Hurricane Patricia because Patricia did not directly hit Manzanillo and Guadalajara exposure concentrations.
  - Event selection source: STORM global synthetic tropical cyclone hazard dataset (Bloemendaal and others, 2020).
- Scenario F1:
  - River flood event in Tabasco and surrounding states.
  - Based on historical floods including the 2007 Tabasco floods; key contributing factors include heavy rains associated with combination of a cold front and tropical storm Noel and release of water from the Peñitas dam.
  - The 2007 event was estimated to have a 1-in-100-year return period in the region (Ramos and others, 2009).
  - Tabasco has experienced frequent flood events including 1993, 1999, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2020.
- Scenario ES1 (extreme season):
  - Sequence of several extreme tropical cyclone and flood events occurring within a few months: TC1, TC2, TC3 and F1.
  - Included to analyze potential for substantial economic and financial impacts from a series of extreme events affecting different parts of the country in close succession.
  - Historical precedent: 2010 had multiple severe events (Hurricane Alex, Hurricane Karl, Tropical Storm Matthew, and flooding in Tabasco); aggregated economic losses in 2010 were higher than any other year in 2000-2020 per CENAPRED, though still estimated at less than 1 percent of GDP.

*Source: Appendix I. Climate-related disasters in Mexico.*

### 2017. Impact of climate change on Gulf of Mexico hurricanes. NCAR Tech Note. NCAR/TN535

### 2017. Impact of climate change on Gulf of Mexico hurricanes. NCAR Tech Note. NCAR/TN535

### Scope and thematic coverage
- References focus on climate change impacts on tropical cyclones, flood risk, coastal ecosystems, and economic/financial consequences.
- Cross-cutting themes include:
  - Tropical cyclone behaviour and projections under anthropogenic warming.
  - Flood hazard modelling and flood depth–damage functions.
  - Economic valuation of coastal ecosystem services and adaptation strategies.
  - Financial stability, banking sector exposures, and climate stress testing.
  - Compound, cascading, and clustered extreme events and methodology for catastrophe model uncertainty.

### Key referenced datasets, models, and resources
- Copernicus Global Land Service: Land Cover 100m: collection 3: epoch 2019: Globe.
- GHS settlement grid and GHS population grid multitemporal R2019A.
- EM-DAT Database, Université Catholique de Louvain.
- World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (Mexico: extremes).
- Global flood hazard and flood depth–damage resources: Hirabayashi et al. (2021); Huizinga, De Moel and Szewczyk (2017); Sampson et al. (2015).

### Notable technical and methodological references
- Knutson et al., 2020 — "Tropical cyclones and climate change assessment: Part II: Projected response to anthropogenic warming."
- Knutson et al., 2015 — Dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios for intense tropical cyclone projections.
- Holland, G., 2008 — "A Revised Hurricane Pressure–Wind Model," Mon. Weather Rev.
- Kaczmarska, Jewson & Bellone, 2018 — Quantifying sources of simulation uncertainty in natural catastrophe models.
- Trendafiloski et al., 2017 — Managing damage uncertainty in catastrophe models.
- Towe et al., 2020; Mumby et al., 2011 — Temporal clustering and modelling of extreme events.

### Economic, ecological, and adaptation analysis references
- Haer et al., 2017 — Cost-benefit analysis of flood protection in Tabasco, Mexico.
- Haer et al., 2018 — Coastal and river flood risk analyses for Mexico and guidance for flood adaptation policies.
- Fernández-Díaz et al., 2022 — Valuation of loss of coastal ecosystem services in Mexico facing sea level rise.
- Hallegatte, S., 2015 — Indirect cost of natural disasters and economic definition of macroeconomic resilience.
- Hallegatte et al., 2022a/b — Macroeconomic consequences and bank stress testing frameworks for physical risks under climate change.

### Financial stability, banking sector, and policy-focused works
- Financial Stability Board (FSB), 2020 — "The Implications of Climate Change for Financial Stability."
- European Central Bank, 2021 — "Climate-related risks to financial stability."
- Danmarks Nationalbank, 2021 — Flood risk impact on credit institutions’ exposures.
- Ranger, Mahul & Monasterolo, 2021 and 2022 — Managing financial risks from climate shocks and framework for scenario generation.
- Reinders et al., 2021; Romero et al., 2022; Vitek, 2018 — Climate stress tests and global macrofinancial modelling.

### Regional and country-specific studies relevant to Mexico and Latin America
- Dominguez, Jaramillo & Cuéllar, 2021 — Socioeconomic impacts of tropical cyclones in Mexico, local vulnerability and ENSO conditions.
- Haer et al., 2017/2018 — Tabasco, Mexico flood protection and national flood risk analyses.
- Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI), 2013 — Capital stock by state.
- Mora et al., 2008 — Statistical analysis of maximum annual discharges in Grijalva basin and Peñitas dam discharges.
- World Bank country diagnostics and tools: Mexico Systematic Country Diagnostic (2019); Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program tools.

### Studies on compound and sequential hazards
- Zscheischler et al., 2018 — Future climate risk from compound events.
- Xi, Lin & Gori, 2023 — Increasing sequential tropical cyclone hazards along the US East and Gulf coasts.
- Pescaroli & Alexander, 2018 — Framework for compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks.
- Kopp et al., 2017 — Potential surprises—compound extremes and tipping elements.

### Publication and dataset identifiers preserved exactly as cited
- Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9694.
- NCAR Tech Note. NCAR/TN535
- ISBN 978-92-79-67781-6
- Working Paper No. 2022/163.
- p.1520.
- GHS-BUILT R2018A and GHS-POP R2019A.
- DOI: 10.2760/16510; JRC105688.
- DOI: 10.5772/8322.
- DOI: 10.2905/42E8BE89-54FF-464E-BE7B-BF9E64DA5218

*Source: 2017. Impact of climate change on Gulf of Mexico hurricanes. NCAR Tech Note. NCAR/TN535 (reference list excerpt as provided).*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2023/english/wpiea2023176-print-pdf.pdf_