## Executive Summary ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [Executive Summary](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2023/english/wpiea2023207-print-pdf.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2023/english/wpiea2023207-print-pdf.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2023/english/wpiea2023207-print-pdf.pdf.json) --- ### Importance of reliable official statistics - Reliable official statistics, in particular national accounts data, lie at the core of sound economic analyses and policy making, which in turn, is the key to building strong, sustainable, and balanced economies. - Many countries suffer from shortcomings in their GDP statistics, complicating efforts to form a plausible narrative about the economy and leading to policy mistakes. - Independent analysts and IMF staff sometimes compile alternative GDP estimates using external data sources, but most such estimates capture only a singular aspect of the economy and offer limited confidence. ### Proposed holistic bottom-up approach - Objective: compile GDP by the expenditure method with limited source data using a holistic, bottom-up template. - Key insight: imports represent a sizable share of economic activity in many economies and are linked to activity trends across sectors; traded goods data can be verified via counter-party trade statistics (bilateral customs data or multilateral sources such as UN Comtrade). - Analytical template features: - Follows the Harmonized System (HS) to classify traded products. - Links volume changes in imported inputs to output growth in related sectors. - Uses HS six-digit codes converted into the Classification by Broad Economic Categories (BEC) to map goods to SNA end-use categories: Intermediate consumption, Gross fixed capital formation, and final consumption. - Employs a hybrid approach to compile imports at constant prices: unit volume indices for homogeneous products and deflation by price indices of main trading partners for non-homogeneous products. - Purpose: complement official statistics and facilitate alignment with international best practices. ### Methodology and data sources (bottom-up GDP by expenditure) - GDP identity used: GDP = C + G + I + X – M (C = household final consumption, G = government final consumption, I = investment, X = exports, M = imports). - External data sources: UN Comtrade Database (monthly exports/imports at HS detail), PMER (parallel market exchange rates), forecasts of agricultural and industrial production. - Official data sources: agricultural and industrial production, services output, government budget, balance of payments, retail turnover, investment (collected at highest available detail and cross-checked with external sources). - Exchange rate treatment: - Official exchange rate maintained for government transactions. - Portion of imports going to the private sector converted into national currency using PMER where applicable. - When official BoP data are aggregated, break down total exports/imports using UN Comtrade detail; if trading partner data are more reliable, adjust official statistics accordingly. - Construction materials treated as investment flows and separated from intermediate consumption. - Domestic indicators and imports classified by end-use categories to derive component estimates. - Cautions: quality of both internal and external sources may be compromised (e.g., omitted PMER effects, trading partners not reporting); re-examine data if discrepancies with other forecasting methods arise. ### Alternative sources and methods for GDP components (guidance) - Household Consumption - Monetary consumption – Goods: - Domestic agriculture: Satellite-based data and/or third-party (e.g., USDA) projections of harvest by main agricultural products. - Domestic industry: UN Comtrade – Imports of goods mainly used for intermediate consumption. - Imported goods: UN Comtrade – Imports of agricultural and industrial products mainly used for final consumption. - Monetary consumption – Services: Expert estimates based on household consumption per capita in peer countries. - Non-monetary consumption – Goods and Services: Expert estimates based on shares observed in peer countries; imputed rent proxied by population projections. - Gross Capital Formation - Construction – Domestic materials: UN Comtrade – Imports of goods mainly used for intermediate consumption. - Construction – Imported materials: UN Comtrade – Imports of construction materials. - Machinery and equipment – Domestic production: UN Comtrade – Imports of goods mainly used for intermediate consumption. - Machinery and equipment – Imported: UN Comtrade – Imports of machinery and equipment mainly used for gross fixed capital formation. - Cultivated biological assets: Expert estimates based on peers. - Exports and Imports - Goods: UN Comtrade Database. - Services: Expert estimates using World Bank Trade in Services Database. - Inventories assumed to be “0” throughout the estimation period due to lack of reliable data. ### Case study: Turkmenistan (2008–2020) — data sources and approach - Motivation: longstanding concerns about availability and reliability of Turkmenistan’s official statistics, especially GDP; official narrative of continued ~6 percent expansion during COVID-19 years contrasted with global/regional experience. - Data sources used: - Turkmenistan official sources: Statistical Yearbooks, state budget statistics, monetary surveys. - External sources: UN Comtrade, IMF Direction of Trade Statistics, World Bank Trade in Services Database, BIS Locational Banking Statistics, US Department of Agriculture (WASDE). - Component-specific methods: - Private consumption: monetary and non-monetary consumption; domestic agriculture volume growth computed product-by-product using international prices from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange; non-monetary consumption shares taken from peer countries. - Domestic industry: sub-sector weights estimated using shares in imported inputs; growth derived from supply of key inputs. - Imported consumption: traced via UN Comtrade and counter-party trade data. - Government consumption: state budget expenditures adjusted for capital outlays and social transfers; deflated by official CPI. - Gross fixed capital formation: two approaches used as robustness checks — bottom-up inputs approach and using authorities’ reported investment series deflated by a “combined” deflator capturing formal and informal price developments. - “Combined” deflator metric: adjusts for price developments in informal economy and for PMER pass-through; used to adjust GDP deflator upward, reducing real GDP growth estimates. - Trade in goods and services: exports of hydrocarbon commodities treated separately (natural gas volumes linked contemporaneously to output; crude oil proxied by two-year moving averages due to inventory effects). Imports deflated by international price metric (e.g., US CPI). - Services trade anchored to goods trade volumes for trade-related services; travel proxies from official traveler statistics, FlightRadar24, or international payment statistics; other services proxied by machinery and equipment import volumes. - Capital and financial account information (including changes in reserves) used as consistency checks; net foreign assets from official monetary survey cross-checked with BIS holdings. ### Key empirical results for Turkmenistan (real GDP growth by expenditure components, year-on-year percent change) - Household Consumption (2008–2020): 2008 2.1 2009 3.4 2010 4.7 2011 1.2 2012 3.5 2013 4.3 2014 0.6 2015 0.1 2016 -1.1 2017 -1.1 2018 -3.1 2019 1.7 2020 3.6 - Government Consumption (2008–2020): 2008 20.1 2009 37.4 2010 2.2 2011 14.1 2012 -0.1 2013 9.4 2014 15.5 2015 7.2 2016 -4.9 2017 1.9 2018 11.2 2019 -1.6 2020 -4.2 - Gross Fixed Capital Formation (2008–2020): 2008 10.0 2009 40.5 2010 -4.1 2011 23.3 2012 24.8 2013 3.0 2014 1.6 2015 1.6 2016 -10.5 2017 -19.3 2018 -37.0 2019 -17.8 2020 -8.9 - Exports of Goods (2008–2020): 2008 5.7 2009 -43.8 2010 42.5 2011 47.5 2012 7.7 2013 0.1 2014 5.3 2015 -12.8 2016 -2.5 2017 18.6 2018 -2.5 2019 7.5 2020 -13.9 - Exports of Services (2008–2020): 2008 12.3 2009 26.2 2010 17.9 2011 4.1 2012 -5.8 2013 -6.3 2014 -6.5 2015 -1.2 2016 -16.2 2017 5.1 2018 -4.8 2019 0.2 2020 -40.9 - Imports of Goods (2008–2020): 2008 26.0 2009 54.4 2010 -10.6 2011 35.8 2012 22.0 2013 11.6 2014 1.4 2015 -17.2 2016 -8.1 2017 -24.2 2018 -48.8 2019 7.4 2020 -0.4 - Imports of Services (2008–2020): 2008 15.4 2009 -16.4 2010 5.2 2011 3.4 2012 5.8 2013 10.3 2014 -8.8 2015 -18.2 2016 -30.5 2017 -19.9 2018 -45.3 2019 21.9 2020 15.3 - GDP in Constant Prices (2008–2020) — year-on-year growth rates: 2008 3.1 2009 -4.8 2010 16.2 2011 12.9 2012 6.1 2013 -0.3 2014 3.8 2015 3.0 2016 -1.0 2017 4.7 2018 0.9 2019 -3.4 2020 -3.0 ### Other specific numeric findings and diagnostics - Parallel market exchange rate (PMER) peaked at 38 manats per US dollar in April 2021. - Turkmenistan’s implied import coverage ratio is 13.6 percent. - Hydrocarbon exports constitute around 80 percent of Turkmenistan’s overall exports. - Two-year moving averages of export volumes used as a proxy for crude oil production due to inventory effects. - Inventories assumed to be “0” throughout the estimation period due to lack of reliable data. ### Robustness checks and diagnostic cross-checks - Empirical cross-country sectoral model: a two-step difference GMM on log-transformed variables across a sample of 103 hydrocarbon exporters (2000–2019, excluding Turkmenistan) used as an internal robustness check. - Narrative-based event timeline: qualitative, event-based approach drawing on IMF staff reports, external analysts, and official announcements to compile key events affecting economic activity and to check consistency with quantitative estimates. - Growth elasticities and metrics: assessed tax and non-tax revenue elasticities and import-based metrics over time and versus peer economies to detect anomalies. - Revenue elasticities in Turkmenistan (1997–2019): total revenues w.r.t. GDP = 0.85; non-hydrocarbon revenues w.r.t. non-hydrocarbon GDP = 0.87. - Comparison: Azerbaijan: total revenue to GDP elasticity = 1.18; non-oil revenue to non-oil GDP elasticity = 1.04. - Import compression case studies: historical episodes where real imports fell by more than 40 percent show Turkmenistan’s 2018 import compression of -48.7 percent coincided with official real GDP growth of 6.2 percent — indicating a disconnect between official GDP figures and import dynamics. ### Policy implications and recommendations - Feasibility: Alternative GDP estimates can be produced with reasonable confidence using a broad set of indicators; the template is reproducible and adaptable to other countries where imports map onto critical sectors. - Macropolicy risk: Divergence between alternative and official GDP estimates has implications for the assessed cyclical position and thus macro policy design. Example: if the true state is recession but official data indicate growth, a contractionary policy stance based on official GDP could deepen and prolong recession. - Engagement with authorities: - Maintain open communication and transparency about methodological underpinnings and information sources. - Emphasize policy implications in discussions with authorities. - Use candid dialogue to identify capacity development needs and trigger technical assistance. - Capacity development: - IMF readiness to provide technical assistance, including via regional capacity development centers, is a crucial asset. - IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development may consider standardized training programs (including case studies) for staff assigned to countries with serious statistical shortcomings to improve reliability of macro estimates and policy advice. *Source: IMF WORKING PAPERS Reassessing GDP Growth in Countries with Statistical Shortcomings: A Case Study on Turkmenistan; wpiea2023207-print-pdf - Executive Summary* ### Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... ### wpiea2023207-print-pdf - Executive Summary ### Document structure and major sections - Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................ 4 - I. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 5 - II. Methodology and Data Sources ........................................................................................................... 6 - III. Case Study on Turkmenistan (2008 – 2020) ...................................................................................... 11 - IV. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 21 - Annex I. Turkmenistan: Main Events .............................................................................................................. 22 - References ......................................................................................................................................................... 24 ### Glossary (abbreviations preserved exactly) - BEC: Broad Economic Categories - BIS: Bank for International Settlements - BoP: Balance of payments - CCA: Caucasus and Central Asia - CPI: Consumer price index - GDP: Gross domestic product - HS: Harmonized System (a.k.a. Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System) - PMER: Parallel-market exchange rates - SNA: System of National Accounts - UN Comtrade: United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database *Source: IMF WORKING PAPERS Reassessing GDP Growth in Countries with Statistical Shortcomings: A Case Study on Turkmenistan; wpiea2023207-print-pdf - Executive Summary* ### Executive Summary ### Executive Summary ### Importance of reliable official statistics - Reliable official statistics, in particular national accounts data, lie at the core of sound economic analyses and policy making, which in turn, is the key to building strong, sustainable, and balanced economies. - Many countries suffer from shortcomings in their GDP statistics, complicating efforts to form a plausible narrative about the economy and leading to policy mistakes. - Independent analysts and IMF staff sometimes compile alternative GDP estimates using external data sources, but most such estimates capture only a singular aspect of the economy and offer limited confidence. ### Proposed holistic bottom-up approach - The paper proposes a holistic, bottom-up approach to compile GDP by the expenditure method with limited source data. - Key insight: imports represent a sizable share of economic activity in many economies and are linked to activity trends across sectors; traded goods data can be verified via counter-party trade statistics (bilateral customs data or multilateral sources such as UN Comtrade). - The analytical template: - Follows the Harmonized System (HS) to classify traded products. - Links volume changes in imported inputs to output growth in related sectors. - Uses HS six-digit codes converted into the Classification by Broad Economic Categories (BEC) to map goods to SNA end-use categories: Intermediate consumption, Gross fixed capital formation, and final consumption. - Employs a hybrid approach to compile imports at constant prices: unit volume indices for homogeneous products and deflation by price indices of main trading partners for non-homogeneous products. - The template is intended to complement official statistics and facilitate alignment with international best practices. ### Methodology and data sources (bottom-up GDP by expenditure) - GDP identity used: GDP = C + G + I + X – M (C = household final consumption, G = government final consumption, I = investment, X = exports, M = imports). - External data sources: UN Comtrade Database (monthly exports/imports at HS detail), PMER (parallel market exchange rates), forecasts of agricultural and industrial production. - Official data sources: agricultural and industrial production, services output, government budget, balance of payments, retail turnover, investment (collected at highest available detail and cross-checked with external sources). - Treatment of exchange rates: - Official exchange rate maintained for government transactions. - Portion of imports going to the private sector converted into national currency using PMER where applicable. - When official BoP data are aggregated, break down total exports/imports using UN Comtrade detail; if trading partner data are more reliable, adjust official statistics accordingly. - Construction materials are treated as investment flows and separated from intermediate consumption. - Domestic indicators and imports are classified by end-use categories to derive component estimates. - Cautions: quality of both internal and external sources may be compromised (e.g., omitted PMER effects, trading partners not reporting); re-examine data if discrepancies with other forecasting methods arise. ### Alternative sources and methods for GDP components (summary table reproduced as guidance) - Household Consumption - Monetary consumption – Goods: - Domestic agriculture: Satellite-based data and/or third-party (e.g., USDA) projections of harvest by main agricultural products. - Domestic industry: UN Comtrade – Imports of goods mainly used for intermediate consumption. - Imported goods: UN Comtrade – Imports of agricultural and industrial products mainly used for final consumption. - Monetary consumption – Services: Expert estimates based on household consumption per capita in peer countries. - Non-monetary consumption – Goods and Services: Expert estimates based on shares observed in peer countries; imputed rent proxied by population projections. - Gross Capital Formation - Construction – Domestic materials: UN Comtrade – Imports of goods mainly used for intermediate consumption. - Construction – Imported materials: UN Comtrade – Imports of construction materials. - Machinery and equipment – Domestic production: UN Comtrade – Imports of goods mainly used for intermediate consumption. - Machinery and equipment – Imported: UN Comtrade – Imports of machinery and equipment mainly used for gross fixed capital formation. - Cultivated biological assets: Expert estimates based on peers. - Exports and Imports - Goods: UN Comtrade Database. - Services: Expert estimates using World Bank Trade in Services Database. - Note: Inventories assumed to be “0” throughout the estimation period due to lack of reliable data. ### Case study: Turkmenistan (2008–2020) — data sources and approach - Motivation: longstanding concerns about availability and reliability of Turkmenistan’s official statistics, especially GDP; official narrative of continued ~6 percent expansion during COVID-19 years contrasted with global/regional experience. - Approach: estimate GDP by expenditure components using a bottom-up approach, drawing on: - Turkmenistan official sources: Statistical Yearbooks, state budget statistics, monetary surveys. - External sources: UN Comtrade, IMF Direction of Trade Statistics, World Bank Trade in Services Database, BIS Locational Banking Statistics, US Department of Agriculture (WASDE). - Components estimated using sector-specific methods: - Private consumption: monetary and non-monetary consumption; domestic agriculture volume growth computed product-by-product using international prices from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange; non-monetary consumption shares taken from peer countries. - Domestic industry: sub-sector weights estimated using shares in imported inputs; growth derived from supply of key inputs. - Imported consumption: traced via UN Comtrade and counter-party trade data. - Government consumption: state budget expenditures adjusted for capital outlays and social transfers; deflated by official CPI. - Gross fixed capital formation: two approaches used as robustness checks — bottom-up inputs approach and using authorities’ reported investment series deflated by a “combined” deflator capturing formal and informal price developments. - “Combined” deflator metric: adjusts for price developments in informal economy and for PMER pass-through; used to adjust GDP deflator upward, reducing real GDP growth estimates. - Trade in goods and services: exports of hydrocarbon commodities treated separately (natural gas volumes linked contemporaneously to output; crude oil proxied by two-year moving averages due to inventory effects). Imports deflated by international price metric (e.g., US CPI). - Services trade anchored to goods trade volumes for trade-related services; travel proxies from official traveler statistics, FlightRadar24, or international payment statistics; other services proxied by machinery and equipment import volumes. - Capital and financial account information (including changes in reserves) used as consistency checks; net foreign assets from official monetary survey cross-checked with BIS holdings. ### Key empirical results for Turkmenistan (real GDP growth by expenditure components, year-on-year percent change) - Table of component growth rates (Yearly values reproduced exactly as in source): - Household Consumption (2008–2020): 2008 2.1 2009 3.4 2010 4.7 2011 1.2 2012 3.5 2013 4.3 2014 0.6 2015 0.1 2016 -1.1 2017 -1.1 2018 -3.1 2019 1.7 2020 3.6 - Government Consumption (2008–2020): 2008 20.1 2009 37.4 2010 2.2 2011 14.1 2012 -0.1 2013 9.4 2014 15.5 2015 7.2 2016 -4.9 2017 1.9 2018 11.2 2019 -1.6 2020 -4.2 - Gross Fixed Capital Formation (2008–2020): 2008 10.0 2009 40.5 2010 -4.1 2011 23.3 2012 24.8 2013 3.0 2014 1.6 2015 1.6 2016 -10.5 2017 -19.3 2018 -37.0 2019 -17.8 2020 -8.9 - Exports of Goods (2008–2020): 2008 5.7 2009 -43.8 2010 42.5 2011 47.5 2012 7.7 2013 0.1 2014 5.3 2015 -12.8 2016 -2.5 2017 18.6 2018 -2.5 2019 7.5 2020 -13.9 - Exports of Services (2008–2020): 2008 12.3 2009 26.2 2010 17.9 2011 4.1 2012 -5.8 2013 -6.3 2014 -6.5 2015 -1.2 2016 -16.2 2017 5.1 2018 -4.8 2019 0.2 2020 -40.9 - Imports of Goods (2008–2020): 2008 26.0 2009 54.4 2010 -10.6 2011 35.8 2012 22.0 2013 11.6 2014 1.4 2015 -17.2 2016 -8.1 2017 -24.2 2018 -48.8 2019 7.4 2020 -0.4 - Imports of Services (2008–2020): 2008 15.4 2009 -16.4 2010 5.2 2011 3.4 2012 5.8 2013 10.3 2014 -8.8 2015 -18.2 2016 -30.5 2017 -19.9 2018 -45.3 2019 21.9 2020 15.3 - GDP in Constant Prices (2008–2020) — year-on-year growth rates: 2008 3.1 2009 -4.8 2010 16.2 2011 12.9 2012 6.1 2013 -0.3 2014 3.8 2015 3.0 2016 -1.0 2017 4.7 2018 0.9 2019 -3.4 2020 -3.0 - Other specific numeric findings and diagnostics: - Parallel market exchange rate (PMER) peaked at 38 manats per US dollar in April 2021. - Turkmenistan’s implied import coverage ratio is 13.6 percent. - Hydrocarbon exports constitute around 80 percent of Turkmenistan’s overall exports. - Two-year moving averages of export volumes used as a proxy for crude oil production due to inventory effects. - Inventories assumed to be “0” throughout the estimation period due to lack of reliable data. ### Robustness checks and diagnostic cross-checks - Empirical cross-country sectoral model: a two-step difference GMM on log-transformed variables across a sample of 103 hydrocarbon exporters (2000–2019, excluding Turkmenistan) used as an internal robustness check. - Narrative-based event timeline: qualitative, event-based approach drawing on IMF staff reports, external analysts, and official announcements to compile key events affecting economic activity and to check consistency with quantitative estimates. - Growth elasticities and metrics: assessed tax and non-tax revenue elasticities and import-based metrics over time and versus peer economies to detect anomalies. - Revenue elasticities in Turkmenistan (1997–2019): total revenues w.r.t. GDP = 0.85; non-hydrocarbon revenues w.r.t. non-hydrocarbon GDP = 0.87. (By comparison, Azerbaijan: total revenue to GDP elasticity = 1.18; non-oil revenue to non-oil GDP elasticity = 1.04.) - Import compression case studies: table of historical episodes where real imports fell by more than 40 percent and associated real GDP outcomes shows that Turkmenistan’s 2018 import compression of -48.7 percent coincided with official real GDP growth of 6.2 percent — suggesting a disconnect between official GDP figures and import dynamics. ### Policy implications and recommendations - Alternative GDP estimates can be produced with reasonable confidence using a broad set of indicators; the template is reproducible and adaptable to other countries where imports map onto critical sectors. - Divergence between alternative and official GDP estimates has implications for the assessed cyclical position and thus macro policy design: - Example: if the true state is recession but official data indicate growth, a contractionary policy stance based on official GDP could deepen and prolong recession. - Engagement with authorities: - Maintain open communication and transparency about methodological underpinnings and information sources. - Emphasize policy implications in discussions with authorities. - Use candid dialogue to identify capacity development needs and trigger technical assistance. - Capacity development: - IMF readiness to provide technical assistance, including via regional capacity development centers, is a crucial asset. - IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development may consider standardized training programs (including case studies) for staff assigned to countries with serious statistical shortcomings to improve reliability of macro estimates and policy advice. *Source: Executive Summary of "Reassessing GDP Growth in Countries with Statistical Shortcomings: A Case Study on Turkmenistan" (IMF Working Paper — Executive Summary).* ### Annex I. Turkmenistan: Main Events ### Annex I. Turkmenistan: Main Events ### Exchange rate, foreign-exchange controls, and external receipts - January 1, 2008: Devaluation of the official exchange rate to manat 6,250 per US dollar. - Introduction of a commercial rate of manat 20,000 per US dollar to virtually eliminate the parallel market (2008). - May 1, 2008: the exchange rates were unified at the rate of manat 14,250 per US dollar. - National currency is re-based with a ratio of 5000 old manats = 1 new manat (2009). - Introduction of exchange rate restrictions (2014). - PMER started to diverge from the official rate. Tightening of exchange controls (2016). - Intensified exchange controls; Introduction of 100 percent surrender requirement for export proceeds (2020). - Reports of "extreme shortage of hard currency" and tighter restrictions on imports (2017). - Attempts to compress imports by exchange controls (2019). - Widening parallel market premium (2020). ### Hydrocarbon exports, pipelines, and major energy developments - Increased hydrocarbon export prices and export outlets (2008). - Gas exports to Russia were disrupted for nine months (2009). - Resumed gas exports to Russia (2010). - Increased volumes through new pipelines to China and Iran that became operational by early 2010. - Completion of the 3rd natural gas pipeline to China (May 2014). - Galkinish gas field came on stream (September 2013), with near-full capacity operationalization expected in 2014 (creating strong base effects for 2015). - Doubling of proven gas reserves (2012). - Significant reduction of gas exports to Russia (from 10bcm/yr to 4bcm/yr) (2015). - Iran is set to cut gas imports from Turkmenistan (7-8 bcm/yr) (2014). - Gazprom ceased imports from Turkmenistan (2016). - Rising gas exports to China - with China becoming the sole market of TKM gas (2017). - Resumption of gas exports to Russia (5.5 bcm/yr) (2019). - Significant decline in natural gas export volumes to China (2020). - Continued Chinese monopsony on Turkmen gas exports (2018). ### Major contracts, loans, and barter arrangements - Disbursement of a major Chinese loan package (US$ 4bn. - hydrocarbon development) (2009). - 10 year, US$ 30bn. goods for gas (barter) deal between TKM and Iran (2016). - Sanctions on Iran relieved. TKM to import engineering goods and services from Iran (US$ 2.5 bn) (2016). - Telecom operator filed an international arbitration case against TKM (US$ 750 m) (2018). ### Public investment, infrastructure, and major projects - Growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector boosted by public spending on rural development and infrastructure (2008). - Continued expansion of public investment (2010). - Turkmenistan is pursuing about 1,900 major investment projects worth some US$ 48 billion (2016). - Completion of large-scale public investments (e.g., Ashgabat Airport, Asian Games - with an expected spending envelope of US$ 7.3 bn) (2017). - Completion of the 3rd natural gas pipeline to China (May 2014). - Completion of a large-scale chemical plant in the Mary region (2014). - Completion of a large-scale chemical plant in the Garabogaz region (2018). - Completion of large-scale gas-to-gasoline and gas chemicals plants (2019). - Continued scaling-back of public investments (2020). ### Trade flows, agriculture, and food security - High public spending and high FDI inflows, concentrating on the energy sector (2009). - Turkmenistan imported wheat - an indication of weak crop harvest (2017). - Successful cotton harvesting campaign - with expected yield reaching one million tons (2018). - Cotton harvest reported to be poor in 2017. - Continued food price pressures and continued spike in food inflation (2016–2017). - Sharp increase in food prices (2015). ### Prices, subsidies, and utility tariffs - Subsidy reforms on gasoline and diesel (2014). - Subsidy reforms on electricity, gas, and water (2015). - Devaluation of the official exchange rate from 2.85 to 3.5 manat per US dollar (2015). - Raised custom duties on food imports (effective from October 2015). - Raised regulated prices of utilities, public transport, and housing (2018). - Gasoline and diesel prices increased by 50 percent (2018). - Differentiated hikes in the tariffs for electricity (2017). - Restrictions on car imports (2015). ### Security, regional relations, and sanctions - US intensified sanctions on Iran (2010). - Cancellation of the Turkmenistan-Iran railway project (900 km. – US$ 700m) (2012). - Lower-than-expected gas deliveries to Iran following sanctions and the difficulties Iran encountered in paying their dues (2012). - Scaling back of the NATO presence from the TKM - AFG border (undermining border security) (2014). - Concerns around TKM-AFG border security intensified (2016). - Sanctions on Iran relieved (2016). - Reports of increased unemployment and signs of reproachment between TKM and UZB (2017). - International settlement on the status of the Caspian Sea (2018). ### Macroeconomic shocks and pandemic response - Global recession and collapse in hydrocarbon prices (2009). - Triple shock: Sudden and steep fall in energy prices, spillovers from the economic slowdown in Russia, and strengthening of the US dollar (2014). - Protracted low energy prices (2015–2016). - Global recession following the COVID-19 pandemic and a sharp decline in commodity prices (2020). - Measures to curb public spending, amidst weak revenue performance (2020). - Introduction of a loan-moratorium program to support borrowers hit by the pandemic (2020). - Rising inflation, reflecting cost-push pressures and higher food prices (2020). *Annex I. Turkmenistan: Main Events.* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2023/english/wpiea2023207-print-pdf.pdf_