## Annex I. Debt Stabilizing Primary Balances ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [Annex I. Debt Stabilizing Primary Balances](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2024/english/wpiea2024181.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2024/english/wpiea2024181.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2024/english/wpiea2024181.pdf.json) --- ### Key findings on public debt outlook and drivers - General government gross debt increased rapidly during the pandemic and the subsequent energy shock, with the debt‑to‑GDP ratio rising by around 10 percentage points in 2020. - Debt reached around 100 percent of GDP in advanced economies and 55 percent of GDP in emerging markets (Figure 1). - Public debt‑to‑GDP ratios in 2023 were higher than before the pandemic in around two‑third of European countries; the average increase was about 7.6 percentage points of GDP. - Emerging Economies returned to pre‑pandemic debt ratios by 2022, while Advanced Economies exhibit a persistent upward shift in debt levels (Figure 1). - Public debt trajectories have worsened in about three‑fifths of Advanced Economies (AEs) and two‑thirds of Emerging Economies (EEs) when comparing 2023‑29 vs. 2013‑19 outcomes (Figures 7 and 8). - The deterioration of debt prospects is largely driven by higher primary deficits, together with rising real effective interest rates as inflation recedes and nominal rates remain elevated. ### Gross financing needs (GFNs) and financing structure - GFNs are defined as the sum of primary fiscal deficit, debt service (interest payments and amortizations), and stock/flow adjustments, such as a realization of contingent liabilities which needs to be funded. - GFNs across Europe surged during the pandemic and have remained at higher levels in most European economies (Figure 9). - While GFNs in EEs decreased in 2021‑23 to close to pre‑pandemic levels, they remained above the 2019 level in AEs (Figure 9). - GFNs measured as a share of banking sector assets are above pre‑pandemic levels in most European countries, pointing to potential domestic financing pressures (Figure 10). - Despite a decline from the pandemic peak, primary deficits in 2024‑26 are projected to remain above 2019 levels in both AEs and EEs (Figure 11). - A large amount of long‑term government bonds issued in 2014‑21 is approaching maturity, likely resulting in higher rollover costs—particularly for high‑debt AEs. ### Role and unwinding of Quantitative Easing (QE) - Quantitative Easing by European central banks helped keep interest costs low and reduced pressure on GFNs. - Government securities holdings by domestic central banks increased by about 11 ppts of GDP between 2019 and 2022 in high‑debt AEs, compared to about 8 ppts of GDP in AEs and about 2 ppts of GDP in EEs. - The share of European public debt held by foreign investors declined from about 50 percent to 42 percent in AEs and to 35 percent in EEs since 2015. - As central banks have started unwinding QE, public debt holdings by central banks have declined; in 2023 the decline for high‑debt AEs was largely taken up by domestic and foreign nonbanks, which are considered more risky than central banks. - The continued withdrawal of monetary policy support results in a shift in sovereign bondholders away from central banks and exposes countries, particularly those with high debt, to a sudden worsening of market conditions. ### Sovereign issuance, net issuance, and near‑term repayment risks - In 2024, new public debt issuances excluding rollover of pre‑existing debt point to rising financing pressures, particularly in high‑debt countries in the euro area. - GFNs in the euro area in 2024 remain broadly at their 2015‑20 level despite lower principal repayments due to extended average maturity of debt (Figure 12a, Box 2). - Close to 70 percent of EU economies recorded positive net debt issuances in the first few months of 2024. - High‑debt euro area economies had net issuances about 8 ppts of GDP higher than in 2019 (Figure 12b). - Close to 60 percent of EU economies face higher debt repayments in the short term (Figure 12d). - Extending average maturity has reduced short‑term liquidity risks but increased future debt service obligations. ### Policy implications and required adjustments - Achieving projected medium‑term declines in public debt‑to‑GDP ratios will hinge critically on reducing primary deficits and sustaining robust growth. - Policymakers should implement carefully‑calibrated and sustained fiscal adjustments that bolster fiscal buffers and ensure debt remains sustainable while supporting economic growth. - The shift in investor base as QE unwinds implies market demand will play a major role in government financing costs, potentially worsening debt stabilization risks—heightening the need for credible fiscal consolidation and strengthened fiscal buffers. ### Box 2 — The Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programs (APPs) on Euro Area Debt Markets - From March 2015 to June 2022, the ECB acquired €2.7 trillion of debt securities under the Public Sector Purchase Program (PSPP) — about 26 percent of the total public debt stock — and €1.7 trillion under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). - From March 2023 (beginning of quantitative tightening, QT) to February 2024, the ECB reduced its sovereign bond holdings by about €214 bn. - The released sovereign bonds have been absorbed mostly by households and, to a lesser extent, by private banks. - High remaining weighted-average maturity (WAM) of ECB debt holdings: 7 years; low dispersion across countries has contributed to maintaining narrow spreads and mitigating short-term liquidity risks. - The long maturity of Eurosystem debt holdings helped ensure low term‑premia in sovereign yields, supporting issuance of long-term securities. - In March 2024, for the first time since the introduction of the euro, the gap between 2Y and 10Y sovereign yields had remained positive for over two years. - Since mid-2022, the average maturity of debt in the EA increased modestly by two months to about nine years. - Aggregate WAM masked a notable increase by high-debt EA economies: average maturity of debt increased by six months following the start of QT. - As QT continues and market conditions normalize, the dampening effect of the PSPP on term and country spreads is expected to diminish, raising exposures of EA countries—especially high‑debt economies—to liquidity and solvency risks. - Extension of WAMs bolstered resilience against short-term liquidity risks but increased future debt service obligations. - High existing banking system exposure to governments may constrain further bank financing and limit banks’ ability to provide residual financing if stress materializes. - Policy-relevant observations: carefully-designed medium-term consolidation; phase out untargeted fiscal support more quickly where needed; prioritize spending and improve spending efficiency; consider additional revenue-enhancing measures where appropriate; growth-enhancing reforms especially critical in high-debt countries; in EU countries, implementation of the reformed EU economic governance framework (activated from 2024) can help advance credible medium-term fiscal adjustments; proposals noted for an EU-level debt instrument to support fiscal adjustment in EU countries with high legacy debt; non-EU countries should strengthen comprehensive national fiscal frameworks. - Governments could target debt stabilization over a slightly longer horizon (such as 10 years) but with a higher probability (such as 75 percent) to reassure markets that debts will be tamed. ### Annex I — Overview, methodology, regional aggregates, and selected country figures - Overview and methodology: - Table reports debt-stabilizing primary balances (percent of GDP) and related primary balance gaps for regions and selected countries. - PPP GDP weighted averages indicated with an asterisk (*). - Sources: IMF WEO Apr. 2024; and IMF staff estimates. - Regional aggregates (selected metrics): - Advanced Europe Avg.*: Est. 2024 Primary Balance = -1.0; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = 0.1; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.0; [d] = 0.0; [e] = 1.1; Debt = 88.5; Forecast 2029 Debt = 89.1; [f] = -0.2; [g] = -0.5; [k] = 0.8 - Advanced Europe Median: Est. 2024 PB = -0.9; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.6; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.1; [d] = -0.7; [e] = 0.3; Debt = 63.9; Forecast 2029 Debt = 56.8; [f] = -0.7; [g] = -0.4; [k] = 0.2 - Euro Area Avg.*: Est. 2024 PB = -1.0; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = 0.0; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.0; [d] = 0.0; [e] = 1.0; Debt = 91.8; Forecast 2029 Debt = 91.2; [f] = -0.3; [g] = -0.6; [k] = 0.6 - Euro Area Median: Est. 2024 PB = -1.5; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.6; Forecast 2029 PB = -0.3; [d] = -0.3; [e] = 0.9; Debt = 66.4; Forecast 2029 Debt = 60.5; [f] = -0.8; [g] = -1.0; [k] = 0.7 - Other Adv. Economies Avg.*: Est. 2024 PB = -1.1; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = 0.4; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.1; [d] = 0.3; [e] = 1.5; Debt = 77.9; Forecast 2029 Debt = 82.4; [f] = 0.3; [g] = -0.4; [k] = 1.4 - Other Adv. Economies Median: Est. 2024 PB = 0.6; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.3; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.8; [d] = -1.1; [e] = -0.9; Debt = 50.1; Forecast 2029 Debt = 38.9; [f] = -0.4; [g] = 0.5; [k] = -1.0 - Emerging Europe Avg.*: Est. 2024 PB = -2.4; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = 0.3; Forecast 2029 PB = -0.5; [d] = 0.8; [e] = 2.7; Debt = 40.3; Forecast 2029 Debt = 46.8; [f] = 0.2; [g] = -1.1; [k] = 2.6 - Emerging Europe Median: Est. 2024 PB = -1.4; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.3; Forecast 2029 PB = -0.3; [d] = 0.0; [e] = 1.1; Debt = 48.9; Forecast 2029 Debt = 46.1; [f] = -0.6; [g] = -1.1; [k] = 0.8 ### Selected Euro area country entries (primary balances, gaps, and debt) - Germany: Est. 2024 PB = -0.6; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.6; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.6; [d] = -1.1; [e] = 0.0; Debt = 64.3; Forecast 2029 Debt = 57.7; [f] = -1.0; [g] = -0.2; [k] = -0.4 - France: Est. 2024 PB = -2.8; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.7; Forecast 2029 PB = -1.0; [d] = 0.3; [e] = 2.1; Debt = 110.6; Forecast 2029 Debt = 115.2; [f] = -1.0; [g] = -2.6; [k] = 1.9 - Italy: Est. 2024 PB = -0.5; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = 3.1; Forecast 2029 PB = 1.5; [d] = 1.7; [e] = 3.6; Debt = 137.3; Forecast 2029 Debt = 144.9; [f] = 2.5; [g] = 1.0; [k] = 2.9 - Spain: Est. 2024 PB = -0.5; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.5; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.0; [d] = -0.5; [e] = 0.0; Debt = 107.5; Forecast 2029 Debt = 104.2; [f] = -0.6; [g] = -0.2; [k] = -0.1 - Netherlands: Est. 2024 PB = -1.2; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.7; Forecast 2029 PB = -2.1; [d] = 1.4; [e] = 0.5; Debt = 47.2; Forecast 2029 Debt = 52.6; [f] = -0.8; [g] = -1.3; [k] = 0.4 - Austria: Est. 2024 PB = -1.3; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.1; Forecast 2029 PB = -0.2; [d] = 0.1; [e] = 1.3; Debt = 75.5; Forecast 2029 Debt = 76.0; [f] = -0.3; [g] = -0.8; [k] = 1.0 - Belgium: Est. 2024 PB = -2.4; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.9; Forecast 2029 PB = -3.0; [d] = 2.0; [e] = 1.5; Debt = 104.5; Forecast 2029 Debt = 115.6; [f] = -0.7; [g] = -2.5; [k] = 1.7 - Portugal: Est. 2024 PB = 2.6; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.9; Forecast 2029 PB = 2.5; [d] = -3.4; [e] = -3.5; Debt = 99.0; Forecast 2029 Debt = 76.9; [f] = -1.1; [g] = 2.6; [k] = -3.7 - Greece: Est. 2024 PB = 2.1; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.9; Forecast 2029 PB = 2.1; [d] = -3.0; [e] = -3.0; Debt = 168.8; Forecast 2029 Debt = 138.8; [f] = -1.9; [g] = 2.1; [k] = -4.1 - Ireland: Est. 2024 PB = 2.1; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.3; Forecast 2029 PB = 1.0; [d] = -1.2; [e] = -2.4; Debt = 43.3; Forecast 2029 Debt = 32.1; [f] = -0.5; [g] = 1.9; [k] = -2.6 ### Selected other advanced economies - Denmark: Est. 2024 PB = 2.2; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = 1.2; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.7; [d] = 0.5; [e] = -1.0; Debt = 30.4; Forecast 2029 Debt = 29.6; [f] = 1.2; [g] = 1.7; [k] = -1.0 - Sweden: Est. 2024 PB = 0.0; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = 0.1; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.8; [d] = -0.8; [e] = 0.0; Debt = 35.9; Forecast 2029 Debt = 31.4; [f] = -0.2; [g] = 0.4; [k] = -0.3 - United Kingdom: Est. 2024 PB = -1.6; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = 0.7; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.0; [d] = 0.8; [e] = 2.3; Debt = 101.1; Forecast 2029 Debt = 110.1; [f] = 0.7; [g] = -0.8; [k] = 2.3 - Switzerland: Est. 2024 PB = 0.9; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.7; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.5; [d] = -1.2; [e] = -1.5; Debt = 38.3; Forecast 2029 Debt = 31.1; [f] = -0.6; [g] = 0.6; [k] = -1.5 - Israel: Est. 2024 PB = -5.1; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.9; Forecast 2029 PB = -1.2; [d] = 0.2; [e] = 4.2; Debt = 61.9; Forecast 2029 Debt = 68.5; [f] = -1.2; [g] = -2.3; [k] = 4.0 ### Selected emerging Europe country entries - Bulgaria: Est. 2024 PB = -2.2; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.3; Forecast 2029 PB = -1.6; [d] = 1.3; [e] = 1.9; Debt = 22.0; Forecast 2029 Debt = 30.8; [f] = -0.4; [g] = -2.2; [k] = 1.8 - Romania: Est. 2024 PB = -4.0; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -1.4; Forecast 2029 PB = -3.5; [d] = 2.1; [e] = 2.6; Debt = 50.7; Forecast 2029 Debt = 65.5; [f] = -1.3; [g] = -4.2; [k] = 2.7 - Poland: Est. 2024 PB = -3.4; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.8; Forecast 2029 PB = -1.9; [d] = 1.1; [e] = 2.6; Debt = 50.8; Forecast 2029 Debt = 63.9; [f] = -0.4; [g] = -2.6; [k] = 3.1 - Türkiye: Est. 2024 PB = -2.2; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = 1.6; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.7; [d] = 0.9; [e] = 3.7; Debt = 28.9; Forecast 2029 Debt = 33.6; [f] = 1.2; [g] = 0.1; [k] = 3.4 - Moldova: Est. 2024 PB = -3.1; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -1.7; Forecast 2029 PB = -0.8; [d] = -0.8; [e] = 1.5; Debt = 34.7; Forecast 2029 Debt = 29.8; [f] = -3.2; [g] = -2.1; [k] = -0.1 ### Interpretation notes - Primary Balance (PB) columns and gaps report deviations where “+ means needed adj.” relative to 2024 and 2029 primary balances. - Debt columns report current and forecast debt levels used in the debt-stabilizing calculations. *Source: IMF Working Papers — Taming Public Debt in Europe; Outlook, Challenges, and Policy Response (wpiea2024181). * ### Annex I. Debt Stabilizing Primary Balances ............................................................................. ### wpiea2024181 - Annex I. Debt Stabilizing Primary Balances ### Key findings on public debt outlook and drivers - General government gross debt increased rapidly during the pandemic and the subsequent energy shock, with the debt‑to‑GDP ratio rising by around 10 percentage points in 2020. - Debt reached around 100 percent of GDP in advanced economies and 55 percent of GDP in emerging markets (Figure 1). - Public debt‑to‑GDP ratios in 2023 were higher than before the pandemic in around two‑third of European countries; the average increase was about 7.6 percentage points of GDP. - Emerging Economies returned to pre‑pandemic debt ratios by 2022, while Advanced Economies exhibit a persistent upward shift in debt levels (Figure 1). - Public debt trajectories have worsened in about three‑fifths of Advanced Economies (AEs) and two‑thirds of Emerging Economies (EEs) when comparing 2023‑29 vs. 2013‑19 outcomes (Figures 7 and 8). - The deterioration of debt prospects is largely driven by higher primary deficits, together with rising real effective interest rates as inflation recedes and nominal rates remain elevated. ### Gross financing needs (GFNs) and financing structure - GFNs are defined as the sum of primary fiscal deficit, debt service (interest payments and amortizations), and stock/flow adjustments, such as a realization of contingent liabilities which needs to be funded. - GFNs across Europe surged during the pandemic and have remained at higher levels in most European economies (Figure 9). - While GFNs in EEs decreased in 2021‑23 to close to pre‑pandemic levels, they remained above the 2019 level in AEs (Figure 9). - GFNs measured as a share of banking sector assets are above pre‑pandemic levels in most European countries, pointing to potential domestic financing pressures (Figure 10). - Despite a decline from the pandemic peak, primary deficits in 2024‑26 are projected to remain above 2019 levels in both AEs and EEs (Figure 11). - A large amount of long‑term government bonds issued in 2014‑21 is approaching maturity, likely resulting in higher rollover costs—particularly for high‑debt AEs. ### Role and unwinding of Quantitative Easing (QE) - Quantitative Easing by European central banks helped keep interest costs low and reduced pressure on GFNs. - Government securities holdings by domestic central banks increased by about 11 ppts of GDP between 2019 and 2022 in high‑debt AEs, compared to about 8 ppts of GDP in AEs and about 2 ppts of GDP in EEs. - The share of European public debt held by foreign investors declined from about 50 percent to 42 percent in AEs and to 35 percent in EEs since 2015. - As central banks have started unwinding QE, public debt holdings by central banks have declined; in 2023 the decline for high‑debt AEs was largely taken up by domestic and foreign nonbanks, which are considered more risky than central banks. - The continued withdrawal of monetary policy support results in a shift in sovereign bondholders away from central banks and exposes countries, particularly those with high debt, to a sudden worsening of market conditions. ### Sovereign issuance, net issuance, and near‑term repayment risks - In 2024, new public debt issuances excluding rollover of pre‑existing debt point to rising financing pressures, particularly in high‑debt countries in the euro area. - GFNs in the euro area in 2024 remain broadly at their 2015‑20 level despite lower principal repayments due to extended average maturity of debt (Figure 12a, Box 2). - Close to 70 percent of EU economies recorded positive net debt issuances in the first few months of 2024. - High‑debt euro area economies had net issuances about 8 ppts of GDP higher than in 2019 (Figure 12b). - Close to 60 percent of EU economies face higher debt repayments in the short term (Figure 12d). - Extending average maturity has reduced short‑term liquidity risks but increased future debt service obligations. ### Policy implications and required adjustments - Achieving projected medium‑term declines in public debt‑to‑GDP ratios will hinge critically on reducing primary deficits and sustaining robust growth. - Policymakers should implement carefully‑calibrated and sustained fiscal adjustments that bolster fiscal buffers and ensure debt remains sustainable while supporting economic growth. - The shift in investor base as QE unwinds implies market demand will play a major role in government financing costs, potentially worsening debt stabilization risks—heightening the need for credible fiscal consolidation and strengthened fiscal buffers. *Source: IMF Working Papers — Taming Public Debt in Europe; Outlook, Challenges, and Policy Response (wpiea2024181).* ### Box 2. The Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programs (APPs) on Euro Area ### Box 2. The Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programs (APPs) on Euro Area Debt Markets ### APP scale and unwind - From March 2015 to June 2022, the ECB acquired €2.7 trillion of debt securities under the Public Sector Purchase Program (PSPP) — about 26 percent of the total public debt stock — and €1.7 trillion under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). - From March 2023 (beginning of quantitative tightening, QT) to February 2024, the ECB reduced its sovereign bond holdings by about €214 bn. - The released sovereign bonds have been absorbed mostly by households and, to a lesser extent, by private banks. ### Impact on yields, term premia, and issuance - High remaining weighted-average maturity (WAM) of ECB debt holdings: 7 years; low dispersion across countries has contributed to maintaining narrow spreads and mitigating short-term liquidity risks. - The long maturity of Eurosystem debt holdings helped ensure low term-premia in sovereign yields, supporting issuance of long-term securities. - Despite increased interest rates, yield curves have remained flat—or inverted in some cases—allowing continuation of long-term issuances. - In March 2024, for the first time since the introduction of the euro, the gap between 2Y and 10Y sovereign yields had remained positive for over two years. - The absence of a term premium partially compensated higher interest rates, enabling treasuries to continue issuing at long maturities with low cost. - Since mid-2022, the average maturity of debt in the EA increased modestly by two months to about nine years. - Aggregate WAM masked a notable increase by high-debt EA economies: average maturity of debt increased by six months following the start of QT. - Compressed cross-country and term spreads in early 2024 incentivized some national Treasuries to pre-finance GFNs to reduce potential liquidity risks from shifts in market sentiment. ### Risks as APP effects wane and QT continues - As QT continues and market conditions normalize, the dampening effect of the PSPP on term and country spreads is expected to diminish. - Domestic and global financial market factors would likely increase interest rates and risk premiums. - As the PSPP is gradually phased-out, supply of sovereign bonds in the market will increase and market demand dynamics will reassert, raising exposures of EA countries to liquidity and solvency risks. - High-debt EA economies are particularly exposed to a sudden change in market conditions. - Unwinding of ECB’s asset purchase programs is likely to increase risk premia and the interest costs for countries with high debt levels. ### Broader fiscal-financing implications highlighted in the Box - Extension of WAMs bolstered resilience against short-term liquidity risks but increased future debt service obligations. - Under tighter financing conditions, insufficient fiscal consolidation could further deteriorate GFN financeability. - High existing banking system exposure to governments may constrain further bank financing and limit banks’ ability to provide residual financing if stress materializes — a material risk in the euro area as APPs unwind. ### Policy-relevant observations and recommendations (from the surrounding analysis) - Carefully-designed medium-term consolidation is key to preserve fiscal sustainability while supporting growth. - Some countries need to phase out untargeted fiscal support more quickly, prioritize spending, and improve spending efficiency; others may need additional revenue-enhancing measures. - Growth-enhancing reforms will be especially critical in high-debt countries. - In EU countries, implementation of the reformed EU economic governance framework (activated from 2024) can help advance credible medium-term fiscal adjustments that improve long-term debt sustainability. - An EU-level debt instrument has been proposed by some as an option to support fiscal adjustment in EU countries with high legacy debt; non-EU countries should strengthen comprehensive national fiscal frameworks. - Governments could target debt stabilization over a slightly longer horizon (such as 10 years) but with a higher probability (such as 75 percent) to reassure markets that debts will be tamed. *Source: IMF Working Paper — Box 2. The Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programs (APPs) on Euro Area Debt Markets.* ### Annex I. Debt Stabilizing Primary Balances ### Annex I. Debt Stabilizing Primary Balances ### Overview and methodology - Table reports debt-stabilizing primary balances (percent of GDP) and related primary balance gaps for regions and selected countries. - PPP GDP weighted averages indicated with an asterisk (*). - Sources: IMF WEO Apr. 2024; and IMF staff estimates. ### Regional aggregates (selected metrics) - Advanced Europe Avg.*: Est. 2024 Primary Balance = -1.0; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = 0.1; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.0; [d] = 0.0; [e] = 1.1; Debt = 88.5; Forecast 2029 Debt = 89.1; [f] = -0.2; [g] = -0.5; [k] = 0.8 - Advanced Europe Median: Est. 2024 PB = -0.9; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.6; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.1; [d] = -0.7; [e] = 0.3; Debt = 63.9; Forecast 2029 Debt = 56.8; [f] = -0.7; [g] = -0.4; [k] = 0.2 - Euro Area Avg.*: Est. 2024 PB = -1.0; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = 0.0; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.0; [d] = 0.0; [e] = 1.0; Debt = 91.8; Forecast 2029 Debt = 91.2; [f] = -0.3; [g] = -0.6; [k] = 0.6 - Euro Area Median: Est. 2024 PB = -1.5; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.6; Forecast 2029 PB = -0.3; [d] = -0.3; [e] = 0.9; Debt = 66.4; Forecast 2029 Debt = 60.5; [f] = -0.8; [g] = -1.0; [k] = 0.7 - Other Adv. Economies Avg.*: Est. 2024 PB = -1.1; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = 0.4; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.1; [d] = 0.3; [e] = 1.5; Debt = 77.9; Forecast 2029 Debt = 82.4; [f] = 0.3; [g] = -0.4; [k] = 1.4 - Other Adv. Economies Median: Est. 2024 PB = 0.6; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.3; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.8; [d] = -1.1; [e] = -0.9; Debt = 50.1; Forecast 2029 Debt = 38.9; [f] = -0.4; [g] = 0.5; [k] = -1.0 - Emerging Europe Avg.*: Est. 2024 PB = -2.4; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = 0.3; Forecast 2029 PB = -0.5; [d] = 0.8; [e] = 2.7; Debt = 40.3; Forecast 2029 Debt = 46.8; [f] = 0.2; [g] = -1.1; [k] = 2.6 - Emerging Europe Median: Est. 2024 PB = -1.4; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.3; Forecast 2029 PB = -0.3; [d] = 0.0; [e] = 1.1; Debt = 48.9; Forecast 2029 Debt = 46.1; [f] = -0.6; [g] = -1.1; [k] = 0.8 ### Selected Euro area country entries (primary balances, gaps, and debt) - Germany: Est. 2024 PB = -0.6; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.6; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.6; [d] = -1.1; [e] = 0.0; Debt = 64.3; Forecast 2029 Debt = 57.7; [f] = -1.0; [g] = -0.2; [k] = -0.4 - France: Est. 2024 PB = -2.8; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.7; Forecast 2029 PB = -1.0; [d] = 0.3; [e] = 2.1; Debt = 110.6; Forecast 2029 Debt = 115.2; [f] = -1.0; [g] = -2.6; [k] = 1.9 - Italy: Est. 2024 PB = -0.5; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = 3.1; Forecast 2029 PB = 1.5; [d] = 1.7; [e] = 3.6; Debt = 137.3; Forecast 2029 Debt = 144.9; [f] = 2.5; [g] = 1.0; [k] = 2.9 - Spain: Est. 2024 PB = -0.5; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.5; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.0; [d] = -0.5; [e] = 0.0; Debt = 107.5; Forecast 2029 Debt = 104.2; [f] = -0.6; [g] = -0.2; [k] = -0.1 - Netherlands: Est. 2024 PB = -1.2; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.7; Forecast 2029 PB = -2.1; [d] = 1.4; [e] = 0.5; Debt = 47.2; Forecast 2029 Debt = 52.6; [f] = -0.8; [g] = -1.3; [k] = 0.4 - Austria: Est. 2024 PB = -1.3; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.1; Forecast 2029 PB = -0.2; [d] = 0.1; [e] = 1.3; Debt = 75.5; Forecast 2029 Debt = 76.0; [f] = -0.3; [g] = -0.8; [k] = 1.0 - Belgium: Est. 2024 PB = -2.4; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.9; Forecast 2029 PB = -3.0; [d] = 2.0; [e] = 1.5; Debt = 104.5; Forecast 2029 Debt = 115.6; [f] = -0.7; [g] = -2.5; [k] = 1.7 - Portugal: Est. 2024 PB = 2.6; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.9; Forecast 2029 PB = 2.5; [d] = -3.4; [e] = -3.5; Debt = 99.0; Forecast 2029 Debt = 76.9; [f] = -1.1; [g] = 2.6; [k] = -3.7 - Greece: Est. 2024 PB = 2.1; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.9; Forecast 2029 PB = 2.1; [d] = -3.0; [e] = -3.0; Debt = 168.8; Forecast 2029 Debt = 138.8; [f] = -1.9; [g] = 2.1; [k] = -4.1 - Ireland: Est. 2024 PB = 2.1; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.3; Forecast 2029 PB = 1.0; [d] = -1.2; [e] = -2.4; Debt = 43.3; Forecast 2029 Debt = 32.1; [f] = -0.5; [g] = 1.9; [k] = -2.6 ### Selected other advanced economies - Denmark: Est. 2024 PB = 2.2; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = 1.2; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.7; [d] = 0.5; [e] = -1.0; Debt = 30.4; Forecast 2029 Debt = 29.6; [f] = 1.2; [g] = 1.7; [k] = -1.0 - Sweden: Est. 2024 PB = 0.0; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = 0.1; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.8; [d] = -0.8; [e] = 0.0; Debt = 35.9; Forecast 2029 Debt = 31.4; [f] = -0.2; [g] = 0.4; [k] = -0.3 - United Kingdom: Est. 2024 PB = -1.6; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = 0.7; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.0; [d] = 0.8; [e] = 2.3; Debt = 101.1; Forecast 2029 Debt = 110.1; [f] = 0.7; [g] = -0.8; [k] = 2.3 - Switzerland: Est. 2024 PB = 0.9; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.7; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.5; [d] = -1.2; [e] = -1.5; Debt = 38.3; Forecast 2029 Debt = 31.1; [f] = -0.6; [g] = 0.6; [k] = -1.5 - Israel: Est. 2024 PB = -5.1; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.9; Forecast 2029 PB = -1.2; [d] = 0.2; [e] = 4.2; Debt = 61.9; Forecast 2029 Debt = 68.5; [f] = -1.2; [g] = -2.3; [k] = 4.0 ### Selected emerging Europe country entries - Bulgaria: Est. 2024 PB = -2.2; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.3; Forecast 2029 PB = -1.6; [d] = 1.3; [e] = 1.9; Debt = 22.0; Forecast 2029 Debt = 30.8; [f] = -0.4; [g] = -2.2; [k] = 1.8 - Romania: Est. 2024 PB = -4.0; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -1.4; Forecast 2029 PB = -3.5; [d] = 2.1; [e] = 2.6; Debt = 50.7; Forecast 2029 Debt = 65.5; [f] = -1.3; [g] = -4.2; [k] = 2.7 - Poland: Est. 2024 PB = -3.4; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -0.8; Forecast 2029 PB = -1.9; [d] = 1.1; [e] = 2.6; Debt = 50.8; Forecast 2029 Debt = 63.9; [f] = -0.4; [g] = -2.6; [k] = 3.1 - Türkiye: Est. 2024 PB = -2.2; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = 1.6; Forecast 2029 PB = 0.7; [d] = 0.9; [e] = 3.7; Debt = 28.9; Forecast 2029 Debt = 33.6; [f] = 1.2; [g] = 0.1; [k] = 3.4 - Moldova: Est. 2024 PB = -3.1; Stabilizing debt at 2029 level = -1.7; Forecast 2029 PB = -0.8; [d] = -0.8; [e] = 1.5; Debt = 34.7; Forecast 2029 Debt = 29.8; [f] = -3.2; [g] = -2.1; [k] = -0.1 ### Interpretation notes (as in table) - Primary Balance (PB) columns and gaps report deviations where “+ means needed adj.” relative to 2024 and 2029 primary balances. - Debt columns report current and forecast debt levels used in the debt-stabilizing calculations. *Sources: IMF WEO Apr. 2024; and IMF staff estimates.* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2024/english/wpiea2024181.pdf_