## Reported Social Unrest Index: September 2024 Update

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**Canonical URL:** [Reported Social Unrest Index: September 2024 Update](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2024/english/wpiea2024225-print-pdf.pdf)

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### Introduction
- This is the third update of the Reported Social Unrest Index (RSUI) extending coverage of the dataset to July 2024.
- The original dataset covered 130 countries monthly from the late 1980s to March 2022; prior updates extended coverage to June 2023.
- Key high-level finding:
  - Since the middle of last year, the frequency of global social unrest events has stayed relatively stable.
  - Notable months: July 2023 and May 2024 recorded elevated events, offset by a quieter period in late-2023.
- Geographic concentration over the last 13 months:
  - Europe and sub-Saharan Africa experienced a concentration of major events.
  - The Western Hemisphere saw notable, but fewer, events.
  - Fewer events were observed in the Middle East and Central Asia and the Asia-Pacific regions.

### Background: The Reported Social Unrest Index
- Construction and validation:
  - The RSUI counts mentions of terms relating to unrest in prominent media outlets.
  - The index is computed monthly and covers some 130 countries.
  - Characterized by episodic large spikes; spikes that meet codified criteria are termed “RSUI-defined events”.
  - Validation: spikes correlate closely with major episodes of unrest and can distinguish unrest in nearby countries at similar times.
- Uses of the RSUI in research (selected studies mentioned):
  - Hadzi-Vaskov et al. 2023: macro-economic impact of social unrest.
  - Hlatshwayo & Redl 2021: predictability of unrest.
  - Diakonova et al. 2022: forecasting exercise.
  - Cebotari et al. 2024: RSUI as a predictor for coups d’état.
  - Barrett et al. 2024: daily RSUI to measure stock market response to social unrest events.

### Social Unrest since June 2023 — Europe
- July 2023:
  - Multiple unrelated unrest events across European countries.
  - France: shooting of a motorist by police led to protests and riots.
  - Israel: protests around judicial reform with mass demonstrations and disruption in multiple cities.
  - Netherlands: increase in RSUI from long-running farmers’ protests but not enough to trigger a RSUI-defined event.
- November 2023:
  - Pre-election climate protests in the Netherlands generated a RSUI-defined event.
  - Spain: mass demonstrations against an amnesty for Catalonian independence leaders.
- January 2024:
  - Poland: only January 2024 met RSUI-defined event criteria amid a series of demonstrations throughout 2023 related to elections in October 2023.
- February 2024:
  - Belgium: farmer protests against EU policies.
- May 2024:
  - Netherlands: pro-Palestinian demonstrations generated a RSUI-defined event.
  - Slovak Republic: mass demonstrations related to reforms of the public broadcaster.

### Social Unrest since June 2023 — Sub-Saharan Africa
- Context:
  - The wave of coups and political instability in the Sahel that began in 2021 appears to be lessening, though its effects continue in parts of northern sub-Saharan Africa.
- July 2023:
  - Niger: military coup toppled the government.
- October 203 (text as in source):
  - Madagascar: protests around elections in October 203.
- February 2024:
  - Senegal: social unrest following a delay of elections.
- May 2024:
  - Chad: protests marked the transition to civilian rule.
- Kenya:
  - Mass demonstrations driven by tax changes.
- Note on comparability:
  - RSUI levels are normalized to average 100 for each country in each chart; levels are relative to own-country average and not directly comparable across countries.

### Social Unrest since June 2023 — Western Hemisphere
- August 2023:
  - Ecuador: assassination of a candidate for the upcoming presidential election led to a RSUI-defined unrest event.
- January 2024:
  - Ecuador: index rose notably as violence erupted between the government and criminal gangs, but did not meet RSUI-defined event criteria.
- December 2023:
  - Argentina: large demonstrations following the announcement of a reform package to be sent to congress.

### Social Unrest since June 2023 — Rest of the World
- January 2024:
  - Papua New Guinea: dispute over police pay led to a police strike and subsequent disorder.
- February 2024:
  - Pakistan: unrest related to elections.
- May 2024:
  - Georgia and Armenia: large political demonstrations related to a parliamentary bill and a border dispute, respectively.
- July 2024:
  - Bangladesh: mass demonstrations led to the President fleeing.

### Key statistics and temporal markers
- Coverage: some 130 countries monthly.
- Update extends RSUI coverage through: July 2024.
- Notable months with elevated global unrest: July 2023 and May 2024.
- Period of relative quiet: late-2023.
- Historical reference point for regional instability: 2021 (Sahel coups wave).
- Country- and month-specific events called out in the update:
  - France: July 2023
  - Israel: July 2023
  - Netherlands: July 2023; November 2023; May 2024
  - Spain: November 2023
  - Poland: January 2024; elections October 2023
  - Belgium: February 2024
  - Slovak Republic: May 2024
  - Niger: July 2023
  - Chad: May 2024
  - Senegal: February 2024
  - Madagascar: October 203
  - Kenya: (date unspecified) tax-change demonstrations
  - Ecuador: August 2023; January 2024
  - Argentina: December 2023
  - Papua New Guinea: January 2024
  - Pakistan: February 2024
  - Georgia: May 2024
  - Armenia: May 2024
  - Bangladesh: July 2024

*Reported Social Unrest Index: September 2024 Update, WP/24/225, Philip Barrett, October 2024.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2024/english/wpiea2024225-print-pdf.pdf_