## Course: Fiscal Risks Management in Low and Middle Income Countries — Module I: Fiscal Risks and Debt Sustainability

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Course: Fiscal Risks Management in Low and Middle Income Countries — Module I: Fiscal Risks and Debt Sustainability](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/fiscal/fiscal-risks/seminarsdocs/courseonlinefrdssept2021.pdf)

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### Course team and schedule
- Team: Camilo Gomez Osorio (AFS), Sybi Hida (FAD), Jyoti Rahman (AFS), Bryn Welham (AFS), Leonardo Martinez (ICD), and Cristina Dimande (MEFMI)
- Dates: September 13 – 22, 2021
- Time zone referenced: Central Africa Time (CAT)

### Opening and course overview (Monday, September 13)
- Opening Remarks (1 – 1:30pm)
  - Ms. Carolina Renteria Rodriguez, Division Chief, Public Financial Management M1, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF
  - Mr. Abdoul Aziz Wane, ATI/AFRITAC South Center Coordinator
  - Dr. Sehliselo Mpofu, Director of the Macroeconomic Management Programme, MEFMI
- Fiscal risks theory, concepts, and monitoring (1:30 – 2:45pm)
  - Course overview and Module I program (Camilo Gomez O.)
  - Pre -Quiz
  - Lecture 1: What are fiscal risks? (Bryn Welham)
    - Fiscal risks classification (nature, type, trigger)
    - Fiscal risks management cycle (toolkit)
    - Contingent liabilities
    - Q&A
- Exercises and assignment (2:45 – 4:00pm)
  - Exercises: What are fiscal risks? (Bryn Welham)
    - Fiscal risk analysis and quantification
    - Menti-meter exercise (Camilo Gomez O.)
  - Assignment 1 and wrap up (Bryn Welham)
    - Summarizing the day
    - Setting the homework

### Sources of fiscal risks (Tuesday, September 14 – Wednesday, September 15)
- Tuesday, September 14
  - Recap and outline (1 - 1:10pm) (Bryn Welham)
  - Lecture 2 - Analyzing and mitigating risks (1/2) (Jyoti Rahman) (1:10 – 2:30pm)
    - State-owned enterprises
    - Natural disasters
    - Subnational governments
    - Financial Sector
    - Q&A
  - Lecture 3 - FAD Fiscal Risks Program and SOE Health Check tool (Sybi Hida) (2:30 – 3:45pm)
    - Q&A
  - Assignment 2 and wrap up (3:45 – 4:00pm) (Jyoti Rahman)
    - Summarizing the day
    - Setting the homework
- Wednesday, September 15
  - Recap and Assignment 1 feedback (1 - 1:10pm) (Camilo Gomez O.; Bryn Welham)
  - Lecture 4 - Analyzing and mitigating risks (2/2) (1:10 – 1:30pm) (Jyoti Rahman)
    - General Economic fiscal risks
    - Public Private Partnerships
    - Legal claims against the government
    - Financial sector
    - Q&A
  - Lecture 5 - Good practices in fiscal risks reporting (3 - 4pm) (Bryn Welham)
    - Content of fiscal risk statements
    - IMF Fiscal Transparency Code and good practices
    - Country examples
  - Office Hours Q&A session (optional) (4 - 5pm)

### Fiscal sustainability: theory, concepts, and indicators (Thursday, September 16)
- Recap and Assignment 2 feedback (1 - 1:10pm) (Bryn Welham; Jyoti Rahman)
- Lecture 6 – Fiscal sustainability and debt dynamics (1:10 - 1:30pm)
  - Fiscal and external sustainability
  - Public debt dynamics, liquidity, solvency, vulnerability
  - Interest rate – growth differential
  - Debt stabilizing primary balance
  - Q&A
- Lecture 7 – Indicators of fiscal sustainability and risk of debt distress (2:30 – 3:15pm) (Cristina Dimande, MEFMI)
  - Sustainability indicators and thresholds
- Lecture 6 - Public debt management and debt risks (3:15 - 3:45pm) (Jyoti Rahman)
  - Q&A
- Assignment 3 and wrap up (3:45 - 4pm) (Bryn Welham)
  - Summarizing the day
  - Setting homework
- Office Hours Q&A session (optional) (4 - 5pm)

### Debt sustainability tools and DDT (Friday, September 17)
- Lecture 8 – The new DDT Debt Tool (1 - 2pm) (Jyoti)
  - Inputs, outputs, and the baseline
  - Interpreting results
  - Overall and stabilizing primary balance
- Presentation - Fiscal Adjustment Paths to Achieve a Public Debt Target (2 - 3pm) (Leonardo Martinez)
  - Using the DDT template to model adjustment paths

### Fiscal Risk Analysis and Scenarios with the DDT Debt Template (Monday, September 20 – Wednesday, September 22)
- Week recap and Assignment 3 feedback (1:00 - 1:10pm) (Jyoti Rahman; Bryn Welham)
- Lecture 9 – How to model different kinds of shocks in the DDT template (1:10 - 1:30pm; continued through 3:45pm) (Jyoti Rahman)
  - Overview of the DDT functions (Jyoti)
  - Class exercise 1: Stress Tests and Macro shocks (Jyoti)
  - Class exercise 2: Debt Stock and PPP/contingent liabilities (Bryn Welham)
  - Interpreting the DDT debt results (Jyoti)
- Assignments and customization (3:45 - 5pm)
  - Assignment 4 and wrap up (3:45 - 4pm) (Jyoti Rahman)
    - Summarizing the day
    - Setting homework
  - Office Hours — Customization of DDT Template to your country (optional) (4 - 5pm)
- Tuesday, September 21
  - Recap and outline (1 – 1:10pm) (Jyoti Rahman)
  - Class exercises: Simulations on the impact of fiscal risks and contingent liabilities with the DDT template (1:10 – 2:30pm; 2:30 – 4pm) (Bryn Welham, Jyoti Rahman)
    - Q&A
    - Country presentations of results
  - Office Hours — Customization of DDT Template to your country (optional) (4 - 5pm)
- Wednesday, September 22
  - Recap and Assignment 4 feedback (1 – 1:10pm) (Bryn Welham; Jyoti Rahman)
  - Simulating shocks with the DDT Template (1:10 – 3:45pm) (Jyoti Rahman)
    - Preparing alternative scenarios - Exercises
    - Analyzing results
    - Discussion and Q&A
  - Closing Remarks (3:45 - 4pm)
    - Overview of Module II Fiscal Stress Tests
    - Evaluation (Camilo Gomez O.)
    - Closing Remarks
  - Office Hours — Customization of DDT Template to your country (optional) (4 - 5pm)

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/fiscal/fiscal-risks/seminarsdocs/courseonlinefrdssept2021.pdf_