## Strengthening Fiscal Risk Management: Developing a Fiscal Risk Statement

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Strengthening Fiscal Risk Management: Developing a Fiscal Risk Statement](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/fiscal/fiscal-risks/seminarsdocs/fiscal-risks-afritacsouth-june2019.pdf)

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### Objectives and Mission Modality
- Purpose: Strengthen fiscal risk management capacity and develop a Fiscal Risk Statement (FRS) for Zimbabwe.
- Mission team: Sybi Hida and Tjeerd Tim.
- Mission modality: workshop, tools development, and preparation of the FRS.
- Timeline: June 06–14, 2019.

### Workshop Schedule and Structure
- June 6–June 09, 2019
  - Tjeerd Tim and Sybi Hida to join the Macroeconomic Framework workshop, collect data, and prepare tools for the preparation of the Fiscal Risk Statement (FRS).
- Monday, June 10
  - 8:00 a.m.–8:30 a.m.: Registration of participants
  - 8:30 a.m.–9:00 a.m.: Opening and Introduction
    - Facilitators: MoFED representative and Sybi
    - Topics: Mission modalities (workshop, tools, and FRS); introduction to the mission team and participants; outputs of the workshop
  - 9:00 a.m.–10:30 a.m.: L1 Sources of Fiscal Risks
    - Facilitator: Tjeerd
    - Topics:
      - Definition of Fiscal Risks
      - Macroeconomic risks
      - Specific risks
      - Risks from public enterprises and sub-national governments
      - Institutional risks
  - 10:30 a.m.–11:30 ap.m.: Coffee Break
  - 11:30 p.m.–12:30 p.m.: L2 The Fiscal Risk Management Toolkit
    - Facilitator: Sybi
    - Topics:
      - Identify and quantify risks
      - Decide whether to mitigate risks
      - Decide whether to provision for risks
      - Decide whether to accommodate residual risks
  - 12:30 p.m.–1:30 p.m.: Lunch Break
  - 1:30 p.m.–3:00 p.m.: L3 Fiscal Risk Disclosure and Management
    - Facilitator: Tjeerd
    - Topics:
      - Identification and disclosure of information on fiscal risks
      - Fiscal Transparency Code
      - Legal frameworks for effective management of fiscal risks
  - 3:00 p.m.–3:30 p.m.: Coffee Break
  - 3:30 p.m.–5:30 p.m.: L4 Fiscal Risk Analysis and Management in Practice
    - Facilitator: Sybi
    - Topics:
      - Country experiences in Fiscal Risks Management
      - Fiscal Risk Statements
- Tuesday, June 11
  - 9:00 a.m.–10:30 a.m.: L5 Fiscal Risk and SOEs
    - Facilitator: Tjeerd
    - Topics:
      - What are SOEs
      - Fiscal Risks from SOEs
      - Policy, Legal and Institutional Framework
      - SOE Financial and Fiscal Risk Oversight
  - 10:30 a.m.–11:00 a.m.: Coffee Break
  - 11:00 a.m.–12:30 p.m.: L6 Fiscal Stress Test
    - Facilitator: Sybi
    - Topics:
      - Fiscal Stress Test in a nutshell
      - Background and benefits
      - The overall approach
      - Results and outputs
      - Conclusions
  - 12:30 p.m.–1:30 p.m.: Lunch Break
  - 1:30 p.m.–2:30 p.m.: L7 Stress Testing an SOE—a simulation case
    - Facilitator: Sybi
    - Topics:
      - Assuming a macro shock
      - Do SOEs bring additional cost to the Central Government
  - 2:30 p.m.–5:30 p.m.: L5 Potential Fiscal Risks in Zimbabwe (based on work during in Mutare)
    - Facilitators: Sybi and Tjeerd
    - Topics:
      - An overview of main fiscal risks in Zimbabwe
      - Quantifying fiscal risks
      - Mitigation measures
      - A Fiscal Risk Statement for Zimbabwe
- Wednesday to Friday, June 12–14, 2019
  - 09:00 a.m.–5:30 p.m.: GW Preparation of the draft Fiscal Risks Statement
    - Facilitator: All
    - Activities:
      - Sub-groups work on different chapters of the FRS
      - Country examples (UK)

### Key Thematic Modules and Tools
- Sources of fiscal risks: macroeconomic, sectoral/specific, public enterprises, sub-national governments, and institutional risks.
- Fiscal Risk Management Toolkit:
  - Identify and quantify risks.
  - Decide whether to mitigate risks.
  - Decide whether to provision for risks.
  - Decide whether to accommodate residual risks.
- Disclosure and legal frameworks:
  - Identification and disclosure practices.
  - Fiscal Transparency Code alignment.
  - Legal frameworks to support effective fiscal risk management.
- SOE-focused analysis:
  - Definition and identification of SOEs.
  - Fiscal risks posed by SOEs.
  - Policy, legal, and institutional oversight mechanisms.
  - SOE stress-testing and simulation of macro shocks to assess contingent fiscal costs.
- Fiscal stress testing:
  - Approach, expected results and outputs, and use for informing the FRS.

### Expected Outputs and Workplan
- Immediate outputs:
  - Tools prepared for FRS development.
  - Training and capacity building through workshop modules L1–L7 and GW sessions.
- Final deliverable:
  - A draft Fiscal Risk Statement for Zimbabwe, produced through subgroup drafting and consolidation, using country examples (UK) as reference.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/fiscal/fiscal-risks/seminarsdocs/fiscal-risks-afritacsouth-june2019.pdf_