## FAD/AFS/ATI Workshop on the Macro-Fiscal Risks during COVID-19 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [FAD/AFS/ATI Workshop on the Macro-Fiscal Risks during COVID-19](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/fiscal/fiscal-risks/seminarsdocs/imffad-ati-afs-covid-19-scenarios.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/topics/fiscal/fiscal-risks/seminarsdocs/imffad-ati-afs-covid-19-scenarios.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/topics/fiscal/fiscal-risks/seminarsdocs/imffad-ati-afs-covid-19-scenarios.pdf.json) --- ### Workshop purpose and overarching themes - The workshop focused on the macro-fiscal impact of COVID-19, tools and approaches to manage fiscal risk, scenario-building, and fiscal forecasting during a crisis. - Institutional hosts and leads: FAD, AFS, and ATI. - Workshop format: combination of full-group seminars, small-group workshops (6 groups), and desk work; a fixed Zoom room available throughout; an assigned advisor available during set times for guidance. ### Schedule highlights and session objectives - Monday, October 26 - 14.00 – 14.30: Introductions, welcome, and overview of COVID-19 and its macro-fiscal impact. Presenters: Abdoul Wane Aziz (Center Coordinator) and Jason Harris (Deputy Division Chief, FAD PFM). Focus: changed risk environment in the region since COVID-19 and FAD tools/approaches to help countries manage risk. - 14.30 – 16.00: Building tools for COVID-19, and the FAD COVID-19 Fiscal Stress Test Module and dataset. Presenters: Bryn Battersby (BB) and Patrick Ryan (PR). Focus: principles for building tools during COVID-19; overview of the COVID-19 FST module and recent applications; preparation of the tool; homework and generic dataset introduction. - Tuesday, October 27 - 09.30 – 11.00: Small Group Workshop: Preparing the GDP data. Mode: Zoom for each group. Participants: 6 groups. Objective: report on including GDP data in the spreadsheet. - 11.00 – 12.30: Full Group Seminar: The sectoral impact of COVID-19, and the impact on the supply side. Presenters: Bryn Welham (BW) and Natalia Salazar (NS). Focus: how COVID-19 affects different sectors, customizing generic sectoral responses to country specifics, production function review, capturing supply-side effects in the tool. - 14.00 – 16.00: Desk work: Sectoral forecasts. Mode: Zoom for each group. Participants: 6 groups. WebEx groups set up for questions and discussion as required. - Wednesday, October 28 - 09.30 – 11.00: Small Group Workshop: Reviewing the sectoral impact. Mode: Zoom for each group. Participants: 6 groups. Activity: participants report on sectoral impact of COVID-19. - 11.00 – 12.30: Full Group Seminar: Fiscal forecasting during a crisis. Presenter: Ian Nield (IN). Focus: review of main fiscal forecasting techniques; revenue forecasting (ETRs, buoyancy, and links with proxies), expenditure forecasting, simple debt forecasting; special focus on revenue forecasting during a crisis. - 14.00 – 15.30: Desk work: Adding revenue and expenditure data and forecasts. Mode: Zoom for each group. Participants: 6 groups. Tasks: revenue data history, choosing forecast methodologies and proxy bases, expenditure history and links in health expenditure; initiation of out-of-session work. - Thursday, October 29 - 09.30 – 11.30: Small Group Workshop: Fiscal forecast overview. Mode: Zoom for each group. Participants: 6 groups. Activity: finalize entry of revenue and expenditure data and prepare fiscal forecasts. - 11.30 – 12.30: Full Group Seminar: Fiscal risks – contingent liabilities during a crisis. Presenter: Matthew Quillinan (MQ). Focus: definition of contingent liabilities and experiences with contingent liability exposures in other crises. - 14.00 – 16.00: Desk work: Building a set of scenarios and identifying the risks. Mode: Zoom for each group. Participants: 6 groups. Tasks: prepare scenarios under different combinations of containment policy stringency and length; consider fiscal effect of other policies or contingent liability realization. - Friday, October 30 - 09.30 – 12.00: Small Group Workshop: Preparing the country scenarios and short presentations. Mode: Zoom for each group. Participants: 6 groups. Activity: prepare country-specific scenarios using the tool and discuss possible risks, such as contingent liabilities arising from scenarios (using template). - 13.00 – 15.30: Conclusions. Presenters: Bryn Battersby (BB), Camilo Gomez Osorio (CGO), Matthew Quillinan (MQ), Ian Nield (IN). Focus: wrap up and links with the work of AFS, AFE, and ATI. ### Key practical tools, outputs, and methodologies covered - COVID-19 Fiscal Stress Test (FST) Module and associated generic dataset: overview, preparation steps, and recent applications. - Sectoral response modeling: generic sectoral responses customizable to country specifics; integration with production function to capture supply-side impacts. - Fiscal forecasting techniques emphasized: - Revenue forecasting methods: ETRs, buoyancy, links with proxies; special focus on revenue forecasting during crisis conditions. - Expenditure forecasting and links to health expenditure. - Simple debt forecasting approaches. - Scenario construction guidance: - Building scenarios across combinations of containment policy stringency and length. - Considering fiscal effects of alternative policies and contingent liability realizations. ### Workshop logistics and participant support - Persistent virtual room: fixed Zoom room available throughout the workshop. - Small-group support: 6 groups organized for hands-on desk work and reporting. - Advisory support: an assigned advisor available during set times to provide guidance and answer questions. - Communication platforms: Zoom used for main sessions and group work; WebEx groups set up as required for desk-work Q&A. --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/fiscal/fiscal-risks/seminarsdocs/imffad-ati-afs-covid-19-scenarios.pdf_