## IMF AFRITAC South and AFRITAC East Regional Macro Fiscal Workshop — Medium-Term Fiscal Frameworks and Fiscal Risks

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**Canonical URL:** [IMF AFRITAC South and AFRITAC East Regional Macro Fiscal Workshop — Medium-Term Fiscal Frameworks and Fiscal Risks](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/fiscal/fiscal-risks/seminarsdocs/mtff-fiscal-risks-workshopsouthafrica-sept2018.pdf)

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The workshop was held September 10-14, 2018, Johannesburg, South Africa.

### Workshop objectives and overall structure
- Objective: Strengthen capacity on Medium-Term Fiscal Frameworks (MTFF) and fiscal risks analysis and management across participating African countries.
- Structure: Five-day program combining lectures (L1–L8), country case presentations (CC1–CC3), guest lecture, and a group simulation exercise (GW1).
- Key pedagogical elements:
  - Lectures covering fiscal risks, MTFF design, macro-fiscal forecasting, budgeting linkages, transparency, and Fiscal Stress Test (FST) methodology.
  - Country case presentations from multiple African nations (max 10-minute presentations).
  - A simulation exercise applying MTFF formulation and a Fiscal Stress Test (FST).

### Day 1 — Monday, September 10: Introduction; Fiscal risks and MTFF basics
- Registration and welcoming:
  - 8:00 a.m.– 8:30 a.m. Registration of participants
  - 8:30 a.m. – 9:30 a.m. Welcoming Remarks by Mr. Joly (AFE Director); Mr. Mlachila (The IMF Representative to the Republic of South Africa); Mr. Raul de Luzenberger (Deputy Head of Delegation of the European Union to South Africa); Mr. Gerhard Pienaar (Deputy Head of State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), Swiss Confederation); Mr. Andre Loozekoot (Head of Economic Affairs, Netherlands Embassy)
  - 9:30 a.m. – 10:00 a.m. Group Photo and Coffee Break
- Opening session:
  - 10:00 a.m. – 10:10 a.m. The objective and agenda of the workshop
- L1 — Fiscal Risks Analysis and Management (10:10 a.m. – 11.40 a.m.; Facilitator: Hervé Joly)
  - Topics:
    - Sources of fiscal risks
    - Monitoring and managing fiscal risks
    - Fiscal risks and macro-fiscal frameworks
    - Main fiscal risks in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
- L2 — Medium Term Fiscal Frameworks (11:45 a.m. 13:00 p.m.; Facilitator: Sybi Hida)
  - Topics:
    - A tool for macro-fiscal policy management
    - MTFF and Fiscal Rules to anchor fiscal policy formulation
    - MTFF and fiscal risks
    - The role of MTFF in SSA
- Guest lecture and country cases:
  - 01:00 p.m. – 02.00 p.m. Lunch Break
  - 2:00 p.m. - 3:00 p.m. Guest Lecture: Budget Reform Process in South Africa — Owen Willcox, Chief Director, Public Finance Unit, National Treasury, South Africa (The role of MTFF in the Budget Process)
  - 3:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. CC1 Country Cases on Fiscal Risks Management (Facilitators: Hervé Joly and Jon Riley)
    - Focus:
      - Main sources of fiscal risks
      - Key challenges in fiscal risks management
      - Efforts undertaken to strengthen fiscal risks management
    - Country presentations: Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Seychelles (max 10-minute presentation)
    - Group discussions (with coffee break)

### Day 2 — Tuesday, September 11: Forecasting and linking macro to budget
- L3 — Macroeconomic forecasting and Fiscal Sustainability (9:00 a.m. – 10:30 a.m.; Facilitator: Bryn Battersby)
  - Topics:
    - Macroeconomic models that work in practice
    - Forecasting vs Targeting
    - Forecasting the economy and public finances
    - Macroeconomic forecasting in the region
- 10:30 a.m. - 11:00 a.m. Coffee Break
- L4 — From Macro to Budgeting (11:00 a.m. – 12:30 p.m.; Facilitator: Robert Clifton)
  - Topics:
    - Roles of different units in the budget process*
    - A medium-term budget to support annual budget formulation
    - Budgeting government policies and respecting MTFF
    - Budgeting in the region
- 12:30 p.m. – 1.30 p.m. Lunch Break
- CC2 Country Cases on Strengthening the role of MTFF in Budget Process and Medium-Term Budget Framework (1:30 p.m. - 5:00 p.m.; Facilitators: Robert Clifton and Jon Riley)
  - Focus:
    - Unit responsible for forecasting resource envelope (tax revenue, non-tax revenue, borrowing)
    - The role of MTFF in budget ceilings
    - Reforms undertaken to strengthen the MTFF and MTBF
  - Country presentations: Angola, Botswana, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Madagascar, Sudan, Rwanda, Tanzania/Zanzibar, Uganda (max 10-minute presentation)
  - Group discussions (with coffee break)

### Day 3 — Wednesday, September 12: Transparency, FST methodology, and additional country cases
- L5 — Macro-Fiscal Forecasting, Transparency, and Independent Fiscal Institutions (09:00 a.m. – 10:30 a.m.; Facilitator: Jon Riley)
  - Topics:
    - Transparency of forecasts, assumptions, and methodologies
    - The role of models and judgments in forecasting
    - Learning for forecast errors
    - Need of independent fiscal institutions
    - The case of UK OBR
- 10:30 a.m. - 11:00 a.m. Coffee Break
- L6 — IMF Fiscal Stress Test (FST) Methodology (11:00 a.m. – 12:30 p.m.; Facilitator: Sybi Hida)
  - Topics:
    - Background and benefits of FST
    - The overall approach and shock modelling
    - Results and outputs of FST
- 12:30 p.m. – 1.30 p.m. Lunch Break
- CC3 Country Cases on Strengthening the role of MTFF in Budget Process and Medium-Term Budget Framework (1:30 p.m. - 5:00 p.m.; Facilitators: Bryn Battersby and Robert Clifton)
  - Focus (same as CC2):
    - Unit responsible for forecasting resource envelope (tax revenue, non-tax revenue, borrowing)
    - The role of MTFF in budget ceilings
    - Reforms undertaken to strengthen the MTFF and MTBF
  - Country presentations: Comoros, Eritrea, ESwatini, Malawi, Mauritius, Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe (max 10-minute presentation)
  - Group discussions (with coffee break)

### Day 4 — Thursday, September 13: FST in practice, MFU challenges, and simulation exercise
- L7 — Fiscal Risks Test in Practice—UK Case (09:00 a.m. – 10:30 a.m.; Facilitator: Jon Riley)
  - Topics:
    - The process and the results of FST in UK
- 10:30 a.m. - 11:00 a.m. Coffee Break
- L8 — Macroeconomic Forecasting and Macro-Fiscal units in the region (11:00 a.m. – 12:30 p.m.; Facilitator: Bryn Battersby)
  - Topics:
    - Main challenges of MFUs in the region
    - Forecasting tools and capacity
    - Possible solutions for strengthening the role of MFUs
- 12:30 p.m. – 1.30 p.m. Lunch Break
- GW1 — A simulation exercise on MTFF formulation and Fiscal Risks Analysis (1:30 p.m. - 5:00 p.m.; Facilitator: all)
  - Exercise design:
    - An imaginary country with a baseline MTFF and MTBF; three other cases required to be forecasted/estimated
    - A Fiscal Stress Test (FST) applied to the baseline scenario
    - Participants required to analyze the FST and respond to several questions outlined in the exercise

### Day 5 — Friday, September 14: Group exercise presentations, takeaways, and closing
- GW1 Group discussions on simulation exercise (09:00 a.m.– 11:30 a.m.; Facilitator: All)
  - Different groups present different components of the group exercise and receive feedback
- 11:30 a.m. – 12:00 m. Main takeaways from the course (Facilitator: All)
  - Main conclusions/take away points from each of the broad areas in the seminar:
    - The role of MTFF in public finance management
    - Macro-fiscal forecasting
    - Fiscal Risks analysis and management
  - Discussion point: What can be done differently going forward?
- 12:00 m. -12:30 p.m. Course Evaluation, Closing Session/Presentation of Certificates (Facilitator: All)
- 12:30 p.m. -2:00 p.m. Lunch Break

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/fiscal/fiscal-risks/seminarsdocs/mtff-fiscal-risks-workshopsouthafrica-sept2018.pdf_