## june2017

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---

### Agenda topics
- i) Monetary and exchange rate policies  
- ii) Public investment, growth, and debt sustainability  
- iii) Macroeconomic management of natural resource wealth  
- iv) Macroeconomic policies and income distribution  
- v) Role of financial deepening in fostering macroeconomic stability and sustained growth  
- vi) Growth through diversification  
- vii) Capital flows  
- viii) Gender and macroeconomics

### Performance summary and outcomes
- Programme overall score: A++ (fifth consecutive year).  
- Programme exceeded the “High” milestones for virtually every indicator; where it did not, it met the high targets.  
- Outcome statement: “A deeper understanding of, and better engagement by, IMF policy makers on LIC-specific macroeconomic issues, leading to improved policymaking in specific thematic areas.”  
- Outcome indicator: “Improved IMF policymaking and integration of LIC-specifics in project thematic areas”  
  - Target (by March 2017): H (8) M (6) L (5)  
  - Achieved: H 5; M 5; L 8.

### Outputs, uptake, and tools — key figures and applications
- Applications and uptake:
  - 16 applications by IMF country teams in 2016/17 (in-year high target 12).  
  - 7 cases of uptake by country authorities in 2016/17 (in-year high target 3).  
  - Cumulative applications by IMF country teams: 64 (168% of high target).  
  - Cumulative applications by country authorities: 16 (145% of high target).
- Main tools/models and use cases:
  - Debt, Investment and Growth (DIG) model: applied in the Kyrgyz Republic, the Maldives, Vanuatu, Burkina Faso, and Namibia for public investment and debt sustainability analysis.  
  - Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS): used to guide central banks in LICs; training and adoption engagement with Bank of Ghana, Bank of Tanzania, Bank of Malawi, Bank of Mozambique, and the East African Community Monetary Affairs Committee.  
  - Macroeconomic and Distributional Analysis Model (MDAM): applied to Guatemala, Honduras, Bolivia, Myanmar, and Morocco for distributional analysis and policy trade-offs.  
  - Diversification toolkit: applied in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Senegal and Vanuatu; includes trade in services dataset.

### Research production and dissemination — numbers and outlets
- Working papers:
  - 19 working papers produced in 2016/17 (in-year high target 16).  
  - Cumulative working papers by March 2017: 75 (110% of high target); target H (68) M (58) L (48).  
  - Working paper topics cover six broad themes: Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy; Public investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability; Macroeconomic Management of Natural Resources; Capital Flows; Financial Deepening and Macroeconomic Stability and Sustained Growth; Gender and Macroeconomics.
- Publications:
  - 13 papers published in 2016/17 (in-year high target 8).  
  - Cumulative published papers: 37 (218% of high target); target H (17) M (11) L (8).  
  - Selected journal outlets: Journal of Money Credit and Banking; Journal of International Money and Finance; World Bank Economic Review; IMF Economic Review; Economic Modelling; Journal of Macroeconomics; International Economics; Review of Development Finance; Journal of Policy Modelling.
- Books:
  - Two freely available books accepted for publication in 2016/17:  
    - ‘Monetary Policy in sub-Saharan Africa’ — accepted by Oxford University Press.  
    - ‘Gender Equality and Fiscal Policies’ — accepted by the IMF Publication Division.
- Light-touch outputs and media:
  - Blogs, speeches, newsletters; work on gender budgeting received favourable coverage in The Economist.  
  - Quarterly newsletters issued in 2016/17: May 2016, August 2016, November 2016, February 2017.

### Strategic role, capacity building, and networks
- The project sustained and expanded research capacity on LIC issues within the IMF and with external academics.  
- Engagement with external academics increased by 5 in 2016/17; example: Willy Semmler (New School for Social Research).  
- Movement of staff: programme lead Andy Berg moved to Deputy Director of the IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development (ICD), aiding technical assistance and training integration.  
- Commissioned research and conferences:
  - Seven commissioned papers in 2016/17 (in-year high target 4); cumulatively 20 (equal to high target).  
  - Attendance/presentations at high-level policy conferences in 2016/17: 20 (in-year high target 3); cumulative 51 (464% of high target).

### Key lessons and implications
- Success factors:
  - IMF’s unique convening and policy advice role for developing countries.  
  - Close engagement with IMF policymaking yields rapid outcome-level policy influence.  
- Transition to Phase 3:
  - Milestone targets to be recalibrated to be more challenging; new logframe finalised during July 2017.  
- Priority evidence-products recommended to distil lessons across themes, prioritised for:
  - “macroeconomic management of natural resources”  
  - “macro policies and income distribution”  
  - “financial deepening for macroeconomic stability and sustained growth”  
  - “Growth through diversification”  
  - “gender and macroeconomics”

### Recommendations and governance actions
- Reinvigorate full annual meetings of the programme steering committee to review and approve annual work plans for Phase 3.  
- Recalibrate logframe expectations based on accumulated experience; do not interpret reduced exceedance of targets as worse performance after adjustment.  
- Produce summary evidence products distilling key lessons from accumulated research output (recommendation carried over from prior year).  
- Continue coordination with DFID Growth Research Team to maximise policy impact and improve coordination between research programmes.

### Context, scope, financing, and timeline
- Project start: March 2012.  
- Phase extensions and approvals:
  - Phase I: March 2012 to March 2015.  
  - Phase II: April 2015 to March 2017.  
  - Phase III: April 2017 to March 2020 (approved July 2016) with a budget of £5.13million.  
- DFID financing:
  - DFID will provide £14.74 million over eight years (total).  
- Report date and authorship:
  - Prepared by Staff of the Research (Prakash Loungani and Chris Papageorgiou) and Strategy, Policy and Review (Rupa Duttagupta and Lisa Kolovich) Departments.  
  - Date: June 9, 2017.

### Value for Money & financial performance — key figures
- Total budget for 5 years: $15.13 million.  
- Amount drawn down as of April 2017: $13.27million.  
- Approximately $1.87million remained in the account as at April 2017, all committed to ongoing activities.  
- Cost per output (Years 1–5):
  - Total Staff/Contractual/VS Costs: $10,168,676.  
  - Research Paper Costs (75% split): $7,626,507.  
  - Country Applications Costs (25% split): $2,542,169.  
  - Working Papers Produced: 75.  
  - Cost Per Working Paper: $101,687.  
  - Published Papers Produced: 37.  
  - Cost per Published Paper: $206,122.  
- Comparative metrics cited:
  - Business Case predicted unit cost per research paper: $193,600 (IMF programme) and $288,000 (next best option). Actual achieved: $101,687 per working paper.  
  - RAND Europe 2015 unit cost range for high quality journal articles: £154,346 - £173,418.  
- Cost structure notes:
  - Direct programme management costs and Trust Fund management fee < 9% of total budget.  
  - Direct programme management costs alone represent < 2% of total budget.  
  - Trust Fund management fee charged at a rate set outside programme managers’ control.

### Monitoring, evaluation, delivery, and risks
- Monitoring & evaluation:
  - Annual reporting to DFID on logframe outputs; quarterly updates on project website; quarterly e-newsletters reaching > 1500 academics, policymakers, central bank staff, and government representatives.  
  - Theory of change validated: partnering with the IMF to ensure research agenda shaped by demand for policy advice.  
  - No budget for an external evaluation included.
- Delivery against planned timeframe:
  - Majority of high output milestones exceeded or met; focus on cumulative outputs given external delays (data access, journal review timelines, publication scheduling).  
- Risk assessment:
  - Overall risk rating: Minor / Low (variously described as Minor/Low in sections).  
  - Rationale: strong internal and external dissemination; researcher transitions into IMF roles; sustained demand for research.  
  - Key risks considered: macroeconomic crises diverting IMF staff time; availability and timeliness of high-quality academic inputs; counterpart inputs materializing.

### Notable country-level applications and policy influence
- Central bank capacity building and FPAS adoption/support:
  - Bank of Ghana: three customized training missions; communication strategy support.  
  - Bank of Tanzania: capacity-building plan to establish forecasting team and forecasting calendar.  
  - Bank of Malawi: scoping mission and follow-up missions launching semi-structural quarterly projection model.  
  - Bank of Mozambique: forecasting practice review and FPAS tool development.
- Selected DIG/MDAM applications and findings:
  - Kyrgyz Republic: DIG model in 2016 Article IV — scaling-up could modestly support growth at current public investment efficiency; without efficiency gains, shocks can undermine debt sustainability.  
  - Maldives: DIG application — airport-focused scaling up had significant public finance implications, requiring large tax increases; inefficiencies and uncertainty increase downside risks.  
  - Guatemala: MDAM — redistributing 1 percent of GDP through existing cash transfer program would reduce extreme poverty by 4 percentage points; raising revenues through higher and more progressive PIT less detrimental to growth and poverty/inequality than VAT.
- Reflection in IMF flagship and Board outputs:
  - Six major IMF reports in FY2016/17 reflected programme research, including:  
    - Two IMF Executive Board papers: “Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries - 2016” and “Small States' Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change - Role for the IMF.”  
    - One Staff Discussion Note: “Macro-Structural Policies and Income Inequality in Low-Income Developing Countries.”  
    - Features in the World Economic Outlook and the Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook.

### Capacity building, gender, and inequality work — highlights
- Gender budgeting global study:
  - Two-year global study; first-ever IMF questionnaire on gender issues sent to all IMF member countries; IMF Gender Portal and toolkit launched.  
  - Team’s global survey informed one of five commitments by the IMF Managing Director to the UN High Level Panel on Women’s Economic Empowerment.  
  - Conference on Fiscal Policies and Gender Equality: one-day event on November 7, 2016 with approximately 225 attendees.  
  - Two books accepted: one on gender equality and fiscal policies; multiple regional gender budgeting surveys commissioned and revised for publication.
- Income and inequality:
  - SDN “Macro-Structural Policies and Income Inequality in Low-Income Developing Countries” launched by the Managing Director in January 2017 and presented to an informal IMF Executive Board meeting.  
  - The inequality model used in Guatemala and beyond; IMF staff and external dissemination including blogs and media.

*Annual Review of the Macroeconomic Research in LICs project (2016/17); Prepared by Staff of the Research and Strategy, Policy and Review Departments — Fifth Year Annual Report to DFID (for period April 2016 – March 2017).*

### 2.   The agenda has eight broad topics:

### 2.   The agenda has eight broad topics:

### Agenda topics
- i) Monetary and exchange rate policies  
- ii) Public investment, growth, and debt sustainability  
- iii) Macroeconomic management of natural resource wealth  
- iv) Macroeconomic policies and income distribution  
- v) Role of financial deepening in fostering macroeconomic stability and sustained growth  
- vi) Growth through diversification  
- vii) Capital flows  
- viii) Gender and macroeconomics

### Performance summary and outcomes
- The programme exceeded the “High” milestones for virtually every indicator; where it did not, it met the high targets.  
- The programme continues to engage a wide range of LICs, including in DFID focus countries, both in application of research and provision of training.  
- The programme scored A++ overall for the fifth consecutive year.  
- The project has exceeded 75% of its output level “high” targets (an A++ score) and met the “high” targets for the remaining 25% (an A+ score).  
- The Outcome is: “A deeper understanding of, and better engagement by, IMF policy makers on LIC-specific macroeconomic issues, leading to improved policymaking in specific thematic areas.”  
- Outcome indicator: “Improved IMF policymaking and integration of LIC-specifics in project thematic areas” had a high target of 8, and a medium target of 6 thematic areas by March 2016; the programme reached the high target.

### Outputs, uptake, and tools
- 16 applications by IMF country teams and 7 cases of uptake by country authorities in 2016/17.  
- Debt, Investment and Growth (DIG) model: helps assess implications of scaling up public investment for critical infrastructure; applied in the Kyrgyz Republic, the Maldives, and Vanuatu.  
- Diversification toolkit: assisting IMF country teams to advise governments on shifting away from reliance on commodity exports in response to “lower for longer” commodity prices.  
- Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS): a small macroeconomic model used extensively to guide central banks in LICs in their monetary policy decisions; encouraged for use by central banks in SSA and the East African Community’s Monetary Affairs Committee.  
- Training and technical assistance in modernising monetary policy frameworks provided to the central banks of Ghana, Mozambique, Malawi, and the East African Community Partner States, with additional funding from IMF Regional Technical Assistance Centres (RTACs).  
- Research production exceeded targets in 2016/17, including a synthesising paper on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in LICs and an increase in peer-reviewed publications; two books were produced in 2016/17.  
- Light-touch outputs included blogs, speeches, and newsletters; the work on gender budgeting received favourable coverage in The Economist.  
- The team’s global survey of gender budgeting efforts informed one of the five commitments by the IMF Managing Director to the UN High Level Panel on Women’s Economic Empowerment.

### Strategic role, capacity building, and networks
- The project plays a strategic role within the IMF by maintaining research capacity and innovation on LIC issues.  
- Several researchers brought into the programme have transitioned into full roles within the IMF or into positions at highly ranked universities, expanding the cadre focused on LIC-specific issues.  
- The programme has maintained and increased contact with external academics and academic collaborators; in 2016/17 the programme began engagement with 5 more academics, including Willy Semmler (New School for Social Research).  
- Movement of the programme lead, Andy Berg, to Deputy Director of the IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) facilitated integration of technical assistance and training into the project.

### Key lessons and implications
- Success factors include: the IMF’s unique position in macroeconomic advice for developing countries and the programme team’s efforts to build a strong audience inside the IMF.  
- The conditions producing success may be partly unique and of limited value to other programmes, but the approach of close engagement with IMF policymaking has yielded rapid outcome-level policy influence.  
- Continued high interest in outputs indicates topics remain highly relevant to IMF staff teams and country authorities.  
- During transition from Phase 2 to Phase 3, milestone targets will be recalibrated to be more challenging; a new logframe will be finalised during July 2017.  
- The programme should produce summary evidence products distilling key lessons across themes, prioritised for: “macroeconomic management of natural resources”, “macro policies and income distribution”, “financial deepening for macroeconomic stability and sustained growth”, “Growth through diversification”, and “gender and macroeconomics”.

### Recommendations and governance
- Reinvigorate full annual meetings of the programme steering committee to review and approve annual work plans as Phase 3 commences.  
- Recalibrate logframe expectations based on accumulated experience; the programme might not continue to substantially exceed expectations after adjustment, but this should not be interpreted as a change in performance.  
- Produce summary evidence products to distil key lessons from the accumulated research output (a recommendation carried over from the prior year).  
- Continue coordination with DFID Growth Research Team to improve coordination between research programmes to maximise policy impact.

### Context, scope, and financing
- The project began in March 2012 and was extended for a further two years, to March 2017, by a MoU amendment in December 2014.  
- A third Phase was approved in July 2016, extending the programme by 3 years to March 2020 with a budget of £5.13million.  
- In total, DFID will provide £14.74 million over eight years.  
- The Impact of the project is: “Better macroeconomic policy-making in LICs leads to faster economic growth, job creation and poverty reduction in LICs.”  
- Principal objectives: i) Produce high quality research. ii) Strongly encourage uptake by IMF country teams. iii) Encourage uptake by country authorities. iv) Strengthen engagement by IMF senior policymakers on LIC issues. v) Expand the network of researchers working on LIC macroeconomic issues.

### Detailed output scoring (excerpt)
- Output Title: Produce high quality, policy relevant research on macroeconomic issues affecting LICs  
- Output number per LF: 1  
- Output Score: A++  
- Risk: Low  
- Impact weighting (%): 30  
- Risk revised since last AR?: N  
- Impact weighting % revised since last AR?: N

*Annual Review of the Macroeconomic Research in LICs project (2016/17).*

### 1.1 Number of priority research

### 1.1 Number of priority research

### Research outputs and working papers
- By March 2017, accumulative working papers produced:
  - H (68 papers)
  - M (58 papers)
  - L (48 papers)
  - Exceeded expectations
- Production in 2016/17:
  - 19 produced in 2016/17 (against an in year high target of 16)
  - 75 accumulative (110% of high target)
- Key points:
  - Researchers completed nineteen working papers in the year, bringing the total to seventy five over the last five years against a high target of 68.
  - The papers cover six broad topics: Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in LICs; Public investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability; Macroeconomic Management of Natural Resources; Capital Flows; Financial Deepening and Macroeconomic Stability and Sustained Growth; and Gender and Macroeconomics.
  - Links to all nineteen working papers were noted as available in the appendix.

### Research papers accepted/published in top journals
- By March 2017, accumulative research papers accepted for publication in top journals:
  - H (17)
  - M (11)
  - L (8)
  - Significantly Exceeded expectations
- Publication in 2016/17:
  - 13 published during 2016/17 (against an in year high target of 8)
  - 37 published in total. (218% of high target)
- Published articles and outlets (as reported):
  - Forthcoming in the Journal of Money Credit and Banking: Bilateral Capital Flows to Developing Countries at Intensive and Extensive Margins
  - February 2017 issue of the Journal of International Money and Finance: Joining the club? Procyclicality of private capital inflows in lower income developing economies
  - World Bank Economic Review: Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries
  - IMF Economic Review (open access): Non-FDI Private Capital Inflows in Low-Income Countries: Catching the Wave?; IMF lending and banking crises
  - May 2016 issue of Economic Modelling (open access): Income growth and inequality: The threshold effects of trade and financial openness
  - September 2016 issue of the Journal of Macroeconomics (open access): Fiscal limits in developing countries: A DSGE Approach
  - March 2017 issue of International Economics (open access): From natural resource boom to sustainable economic growth: Lessons from Mongolia
  - June 2016 issue of the Review of Development Finance (open access): Sovereign bonds in developing countries: Drivers of issuance and spreads
  - May 2017 issue of the Journal of Policy Modelling (open access): Emerging and Developing Economies: Entering a Rough Patch or Protracted Low Gear?
  - Book chapters: Financial Liberalization, Inequality and Inclusion in Low-Income Countries; Public Sector Investment Efficiency in Developing Economies (forthcoming); Empowering Women Can Diversify the Economy

### Books
- Number of freely available books published during 2016/17:
  - H (2)
  - M (1)
  - L (0)
  - Slightly exceeded expectations
- Production in 2016/17:
  - 2 produced in 2016/17 (high target met)
- Key points:
  - Two full books were accepted for publication, equal to the high cumulative target.
  - Book 1: ‘Monetary Policy in sub-Saharan Africa’ — accepted for publication by Oxford University Press; examines challenges to monetary policy in sub-Saharan Africa and context-specific macroeconomic models.
  - Book 2: ‘Gender Equality and Fiscal Policies’ — accepted for publication by the IMF Publication Division, with IMF covering editing and publication costs; summarizes lessons from the programme’s global study of gender budgeting.

### Applications and use by country teams and authorities
- Indicator 2.1 Applications by IMF country teams by March 2017, cumulative:
  - H (38)
  - M (25)
  - L (16)
  - Exceeded expectations
  - 16 applications in 2016/17 (against an in year high target of 12)
  - Cumulatively 64 (168% of the high target)
- Indicator 2.2 Applications by country authorities by March 2017, cumulative:
  - H (11)
  - M (8)
  - L (6)
  - Exceeded expectations
  - 7 applications in 2016/17 (against an in-year high target of 3)
  - Cumulatively 16 (145% of the high target)
- Key points on use and uptake:
  - IMF Country Teams completed 16 applications in the year across four topics: 1) Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies; 2) Public investment, debt, and debt sustainability; 3) Macroeconomic policies and income distribution; 4) Growth through diversification.
  - The Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) was developed and used to guide central banks in LICs; ICD ran a training programme for AFR staff to enable customised FPAS use.
  - Public investment, growth and debt sustainability work applied the DIG model in Burkina Faso, Kyrgyz Republic, the Maldives and Namibia to assess public investment strategies and debt sustainability risks.
  - The Macroeconomic and Distributional Analysis Model (MDAM) was applied to Guatemala, Honduras, Bolivia, Myanmar and Morocco; in Myanmar it was used in a Selected Issues paper and an Article IV Consultation with receptive authorities.
  - Diversification research was applied in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Senegal and Vanuatu using the diversification toolkit.
  - Seven cases of uptake by country authorities in 2016/17: four focused on central banks in Ghana, Tanzania, Malawi and Mozambique, with ongoing training and FPAS application support.
  - Engagement with the East African Community (EAC) Monetary Affairs Committee included two presentations and moderation of the EAC FPAS working group.
  - Two workshops rolled out the IMF Board Paper “Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries” for SSA central bank officials; participants emphasized the need to understand FPAS narratives and to sense-check model outputs.

### Engagement, policy influence and conferences
- Indicator 3.1 High level policy conferences by March 2017:
  - H (11)
  - M (9)
  - L (6)
  - Exceeded expectations
  - 9 conferences in 2016/17 (against an in year high target of 3)
  - Cumulatively 22 (200% of the high target)
- Indicator 3.2 Research reflected in IMF Board/Staff Discussion Notes/etc. by March 2017:
  - H (11)
  - M (6)
  - L (4)
  - Exceeded expectations
  - 6 pieces in 2016/17 (against an in-year high target of 3)
  - Cumulatively 19 (173% of high target)
- Indicator 3.2.1 Research reflected in IMF Board papers by March 2017:
  - H (7)
  - M (5)
  - L (4)
  - Exceeded expectations
  - 2 pieces in 2016/17 (against an in-year high target of 1)
  - Cumulatively 11 (157% of high target)
- Key points on influence:
  - Programme researchers participated in nine high-level policy conferences in FY2016/17, totaling 22 during Phase 2 against a high target of 11.
  - Two conferences focused on gender and macroeconomics; at a March 2017 conference the IMF Managing Director and the IMF Economic Counsellor and Research Director Maurice Obstfeld highlighted the macro-criticality of gender equality.
  - The IMF Managing Director announced intent to push for IMF country programs to include gender-related benchmarks.
  - A one-day conference on Fiscal Policies and Gender Equality in November 2016 had an open session attended by 225 people; the opening session was led by Christine Lagarde and received media coverage across multiple outlets.

### Performance assessment and rationale
- The programme’s output score: A++
- Risk: Low
- Impact weighting (%): 30
- Rationale:
  - Total quantity of publications substantially exceeds high targets in cumulative and recent-year figures.
  - Success in publishing in top-tier journals demonstrates output quality and effective response to DFID requests.
  - Two books consolidate bodies of work allowing deeper exploration of topics.
  - The programme’s outputs continue to enhance the profile of LIC-specific macroeconomic and monetary issues in academic and policy circles.
  - Given continued success, the output again scores A++, the same as last year.

### Responses to previous review issues
- Improvements noted in publications in peer-reviewed journals.
- Policy briefs were encouraged in past Annual Reviews but judged to have limited impact; programme staff produce regular blogs as an accessible format.
- With increasing stock of outputs and transition to Phase 3, revisiting production of policy briefs was recommended to speak more directly to policymakers and encourage researcher engagement.

### Recommendations
- Finalise the Phase 3 research agenda by July 2017.
- Complete the update of the research targets within the logframe for the third Phase of the programme by July 2017.
- Revisit the idea of producing policy briefs to broaden readership and reach of outputs and consider adding policy briefs to the logframe in the future.
- Follow up with participants of FPAS training and EAC engagement to drive closer engagement and influence policymaking in interested central banks.
- Make support to training courses an explicit logframe output in Phase 3 to link DFID support to research production and ensure demand-led elements.
- Share IMF team experiences in providing training courses with other Growth Research Team programmes (e.g., IGC and UNU-WIDER) to leverage DFID’s research network outreach.
- Consider informing DFID country and policy teams of Fund activities, especially in DFID focus countries such as Ghana, Malawi and Nigeria.

*Source: Annual Review of the IMF/DFID macroeconomics in LICs programme.*

### 53.  A one day conference on sustainable economic development at the IMF 2016 Spring Meetings,

### IMF strengthens capacity building by expanding the network of LIC researchers who are new to the field of macroeconomic research on LICs.

### Conference and senior engagement
- The event "Low-income and Developing Countries: Conference on Sustainable Economic Development in a Challenging Global Environment" was held at the IMF 2016 Spring Meetings and explored issues of inequality and public investment.
- Panellists included the IMF Managing Director, Christine Lagarde; two Deputy Managing Directors; the Directors of the IMF African Department and the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department; the Deputy Director of the IMF Research Department; and a number of external experts.
- The conference attendance by senior policymakers demonstrates the programme’s reach to policymakers able to affect the policy process.

### Major research outputs in FY2016/17
- Six major IMF reports in FY2016/17 reflected the programme’s research, bringing the cumulative total for Phase 2 to 19 (against a high target of 11). These included:
  - Two papers for discussion by the IMF Executive Board:
    - "Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries - 2016" — examined adjustment to “lower for longer” commodity prices and options for LIDCs to accelerate infrastructure investment.
    - "Small States' Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change - Role for the IMF" — examined disproportionate threat to small states; noted statistic: 9% of natural disasters affecting small states involve damage of more than 30% of GDP compared to less than 1% for larger states.
  - Two features in the World Economic Outlook.
  - One Staff Discussion Note.
  - One feature in the Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook.
- Programme researchers contributed modelling on impacts of natural disasters and alternate policy actions.

### Output performance, indicators, and milestones (Output number per LF 4, Output Score A++)
- Impact weighting (%): 10
- Risk: Low
- Risk revised since last AR? N
- Impact weighting % revised since last AR? N

- Indicator 4.1 — Number of commissioned research papers produced on thematic areas:
  - By March 2017, number of commissioned papers targets: H (20), M (18), L (10)
  - 7 produced in 2016/17 (against an in-year high target of 4)
  - Cumulatively 20 (equal to the high target)
  - Assessment: Slightly exceeded expectations

- Indicator 4.1.1 — Toolkits offering publicly available datasets:
  - By March 2017, toolkits produced targets: H (3), M (2), L (1)
  - 3 toolkits produced in 2016/17 (against an in-year high target of 1)
  - Cumulatively 5 (167% of high target)
  - Assessment: Exceeded expectations

- Indicator 4.2 — Attendance of external researchers at high-level policy conferences:
  - By March 2017, number of conferences targets: H (11), M (9), L (6)
  - 20 conferences attended in 2016/17 (against an in-year high target of 3)
  - Cumulatively 51 (464% of high target)
  - Assessment: Exceeded expectations

- Indicator 4.3 — Outputs and project disseminated in e-newsletter and updated public webpage (number of updates):
  - By March 2017, number of updates targets: H (18), M (14), L (10)
  - 4 updates in 2016/17 (against an in-year high target of 4)
  - Cumulatively 18 (equal to the high target)
  - Assessment: Slightly exceeded expectations

### Key achievements and dissemination
- Commissioned research:
  - The team met the high target for commissioned research papers produced on thematic areas, supporting efforts to attract macroeconomic researchers to LIC-focused topics.
- Toolkits released (3 in 2016/17):
  - First comprehensive analyses in their areas:
    - First compilation of detailed historical and new data on world trade in services.
    - IMF Gender Portal: first-ever global review of policymakers’ use of tax and spending policies to promote gender equality; included an online database toolkit of gender equality indicators worldwide.
    - Toolkit for incidence analysis of fuel price subsidy reform: provides estimates of welfare impacts of fuel price increases and distribution across household income groups; delivered in Excel format and used by country teams in technical assistance.
- Conferences and presentations:
  - 20 high-level conference presentations in 2016/17; 9 presentations were at The Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) at Oxford University and were counted as separate presentations to reflect intensive engagement.
  - Purpose of indicator: encourage engagement with academics, researchers and policymakers outside the IMF.
- Newsletters:
  - Four newsletters issued in 2016/17: May 2016 Newsletter; August 2016 Newsletter; November 2016 Newsletter; February 2017 Newsletter.
- Overall assessment:
  - Implicit in-year “high” targets have been exceeded; cumulative targets substantially exceeded in many cases. Overall rating: A++.

### Recommendations
- None (Recommendations stated as "None" in the report).

### Value for Money & financial performance
- Cost structure:
  - No anticipated changes in cost structures over the second phase as a result of exchange rates.
  - Direct programme management costs and the Trust Fund management fee amount to less than 9% of the total budget.
  - Direct programme management costs alone represent less than 2% of the total budget.
- Cost per paper analysis (Years 1–5):
  - IMF Staff: $2,137,794
  - Contractuals: $5,872,923
  - Visiting Scholars (VS): $2,157,959
  - Total Staff/Contractual/VS Costs: $10,168,676
  - Split between:
    - Research Paper Costs (75%): $7,626,507
    - Country Applications Costs (25%): $2,542,169
  - Working Papers Produced: 75
  - Cost Per Working Paper: $101,687
  - Published Papers Produced: 37
  - Cost per Published Paper: $206,122
- Comparative unit costs and performance:
  - Cost per working paper after 5 years is approximately $101,000 (£79,528), a slight decrease from $104,213 (reported after 4 years).
  - Cost per published paper after 4 years is $206,000 (£162,204), a slight decrease from $243,163 (after 4 years as reported in last Annual Review).
  - Business Case predicted unit cost per research paper of $193,600 for the IMF programme and $288,000 for the next best option; the programme achieved $101,000 for working papers.
  - RAND Europe 2015 unit cost range for high quality journal articles: £154,346 - £173,418.
- Value-enhancing operational practices:
  - Use of IMF training facilities in the SSA region to bring LIC authorities together reduces travel costs and builds cadre expertise; IMF negotiated preferential accommodation rates.
  - Project follows IMF guidelines for hiring, travel, and conferences; contractual hires undergo competitive processes.
  - Outputs produced under firm timeframes and subject to Fund publication requirements.
  - To date, there are 39 peer-reviewed publications (journal articles & books).
  - The IMF research team’s ability to quickly communicate research findings to IMF resident representatives and missions enhances policy impact.
- Financials and budget status:
  - Total budget for 5 years: $15.13 million.
  - $13.27million had been drawn down as of April 2017.
  - Approximately $1.87million remained in the account as at April 2017, all committed to ongoing activities.
  - Trust Fund management fee charged at a rate set outside programme managers’ control.
  - Date of last narrative financial report: June 2017
  - Date of last audited annual statement: 30 April 2016
  - Note: exchange rate used for GBP conversion: £1 : US$ 1.27 (taken from xe.com on 25/06/2017) and Year-4 GBP figures recalculated using this rate.

### Comparative output metrics (DFID-sponsored vs other IMF LIC papers 2012–2015)
- DFID-sponsored and other IMF LIC working/published papers by year:
  - 2012: DFID-sponsored Working Papers Number 6; Of which published Number 2 Share 33% | Other IMF LIC Working Papers Number 32; Of which published Number 3 Share 9%
  - 2013: DFID-sponsored Working Papers Number 16; Of which published Number 3 Share 19% | Other IMF LIC Working Papers Number 29; Of which published Number 4 Share 14%
  - 2014: DFID-sponsored Working Papers Number 8; Of which published Number 2 Share 25% | Other IMF LIC Working Papers Number 31; Of which published Number 0 Share 0%
  - 2015: DFID-sponsored Working Papers Number 16; Of which published Number 3 Share 19% | Other IMF LIC Working Papers Number 33; Of which published Number 2 Share 6%
  - Total (2012–2015): DFID-sponsored Working Papers Number 46; Of which published Number 10 Share 22% | Other IMF LIC Working Papers Number 125; Of which published Number 9 Share 7%
- Interpretation: In each year, the share of DFID papers published is higher than the share of other IMF LIC papers; DFID-sponsored papers averaged 11.5 per year versus 2.25 per year for other IMF LIC-focused papers.

### Risk assessment
- Overall risk rating: Minor
- Rationale:
  - IMF distribution of research outputs is effective internally and externally; the programme has built a strong reputation among researchers on LIC macroeconomic issues.
  - Difficulty exists in clearly attributing and measuring results on increasing interest in LIC challenges within the IMF, but evidence of researcher transitions into Fund roles and senior staff engagement supports success.
  - Demand for research remains high both inside and outside the Fund; team engages with IMF Resident Representatives and Missions and has assisted with core analyses such as Article IV visits.
  - As the programme progresses and performance remains high, the risk of overall failure is expected to decline further; Phase 3 aims to maximise returns to goodwill built.

### Delivery, monitoring, and governance
- Delivery against planned timeframe:
  - Majority of high output milestones have been exceeded or met.
  - Programme focuses on cumulative outputs given delays external to management (data access, journal review timelines, publication scheduling).
  - Some cumulative figures far exceed targets due to sustained team effort and slight over-achievement on implied in-year targets.
  - Phase 2 duration was 2 years with logframe updates at its start; expectations will be adjusted transitioning to Phase 3.
- Monitoring & Evaluation:
  - The fundamental evidence for the programme remains as set out in the original business case; an evaluation is not applicable.
  - Theory of change remains valid: partnering directly with the IMF to maximise early engagement of potential users and ensure research agenda shaped by demand for policy advice.
  - Management arrangements link the IMF Research Department and the Strategy, Policy and Review Department to keep the research agenda relevant to Fund policy activities.
  - Governance: informal steering committee that met annually via video conference; structure to be refreshed for Phase 3 and will monitor the programme’s work in Phase 3.

*Source: IMF internal report summarizing the IMF–DFID "Macroeconomics in Low Income Countries" programme performance and outputs, June 2017.*

### 83. Alongside this process, the SRO for the programme in DFID’s Growth Research Team, meets

### Macroeconomic Research in Low-Income Countries: An IMF/DFID Research Partnership — Fifth Year Annual Report (for period April 2016 – March 2017)

### Program governance and management
- The program began in March 2012 and is in its third phase:
  - Phase I: March 2012 to March 2015
  - Phase II: April 2015 to March 2017
  - Phase III: April 2017 to March 2020
- Day-to-day management was carried out by IMF Research (RES) and Strategy, Policy and Review (SPR) departments:
  - Managers: Prakash Loungani (RES) and Rupa Duttagupta (SPR)
  - Project officer: Lisa Kolovich
  - Former managers providing guidance: Andrew Berg and Cathy Pattillo
- DFID oversight and interaction:
  - The SRO for the programme in DFID’s Growth Research Team meets with the IMF project manager once a month by telephone to obtain a forward look of research progress and events.
  - Any issues are addressed as they arise through additional meetings or visits as necessary; this process continued throughout 2016.
  - DFID staff from the Growth Research Team and the International Financial Institutions Department, as well as UK Representatives to the IMF Board, met with IMF project managers several times in person during FY16/17 in Washington DC and at DFID in London.

### Annual Review process and participants
- The Annual Review (AR) for the period was conducted by:
  - SRO Mark Dray (GRT Economic Adviser)
  - Dawn Wood (GRT Deputy Programme Manager)
  - Independent inputs from Andy Hinsley (DFID International Financial Institutions Department, IFID)
  - Quality assurance from Tim Hatton (GRT Senior Programme Manager)
- The Annual Review is part of a continuous review and improvement cycle that assesses performance and relevance at each formal review, leading to decisions to continue, reset, or stop the programme.
- The Annual Review includes specific, time-bound recommendations consistent with key findings; actions are elaborated in delivery plans and teams should refer to the Smart Rules quality standards for annual reviews.

### Program objectives, topical coverage, and approach
- Program objectives:
  - (a) produce high-quality and policy-relevant research;
  - (b) ensure uptake by designing and executing research in consultation with policymakers within and outside the IMF;
  - (c) use the IMF’s convening power to expand the network of researchers on LIC macroeconomic issues;
  - (d) achieve the above as cost-effectively as possible.
- Topics covered span major macroeconomic challenges facing LICs:
  - Modelling and understanding policy choices: monetary and exchange rate choices; fiscal policies (public investment; debt sustainability)
  - Understanding macro-financial linkages: capital flows; macro-prudential policies; transmission of macro-financial shocks
  - Building resilience: mitigating impacts of natural disasters and climate change
  - Promoting structural change and institutional development: growth through diversification; structural reforms
  - Enhancing inclusion: policies and income distribution, gender and macroeconomics
- Implementation approach:
  - Researchers funded under the program collaborate with IMF staff to produce research papers aimed at policymakers in LICs and in the IMF.
  - Modern analytic tools used in developed economies and emerging markets are adapted to LIC needs.
  - All papers are freely shared with external policymakers through DFID’s research portal and a dedicated project website maintained by the IMF.
  - To encourage uptake, papers are supplemented with frameworks and toolkits, presentations at high-level policy conferences, commissioned papers, quarterly e-newsletters, and project-financed conferences.

### Program adjustments and thematic emphasis for Phase III
- The research programme for the third phase was refreshed in light of progress to date:
  - Some activities refocused more on dissemination, particularly work on debt sustainability and public investment, and monetary policy.
  - Other areas were emphasised or introduced, including resilience to disasters, migration, and conflict.

### Annual Review guidance and assessment framework (Smart Guide highlights)
- Output rating scale used in Annual Review:
  - Outputs substantially exceeded expectation A++
  - Outputs moderately exceeded expectation A+
  - Outputs met expectation A
  - Outputs moderately did not meet expectation B
  - Outputs substantially did not meet expectation C
- Annual Review components and considerations to be completed:
  - Summary Sheet: highlights of progress, lessons learnt, and action on previous recommendations
  - Introduction and Context: programme outline, expected results, contribution to Operational Plan and DFID international development objectives
  - Performance and conclusions:
    - Annual Outcome Assessment: brief assessment of whether outcome is expected by end of programme
    - Overall Output Score and Description: progress against milestones and results expected at time of review
    - Key lessons and changes in assumptions since design
    - Key actions with timelines and responsible team members
  - Detailed Output Scoring:
    - For each Output: Output Score (A++ to C), Impact Weighting (%) — cannot be less than 10%, Revised since last Annual Review (Y/N), Risk Rating (Low/Medium/High)
    - Key points, summary responses to previous review issues, recommendations
  - Value for Money and Financial Performance:
    - Key cost drivers, changes from Business Case, VfM performance vs original proposition, overall VfM judgment
    - Quality of Financial Management: forward cost estimates, narrative and financial reporting adherence, auditing requirements
  - Risk:
    - Output Risk Rating: L/M/H
    - Overview of programme risk, changes to risk environment, key risks and mitigating actions, checks to prevent loss of UK funds
    - Outstanding actions from Due Diligence/Fiduciary Risk Assessment/Programme risk matrix
  - Commercial Considerations:
    - Delivery against planned timeframe (Y/N), explanation if off track, performance of partnerships, asset monitoring and control
  - Conditionality:
    - Update on Partnership Principles and specific conditions, assessment of concerns over the past year including human rights, government responses, consequences such as suspension of disbursement (date format dd/mm/yyyy)
  - Monitoring and Evaluation:
    - Evidence and evaluation progress, Theory of Change performance, disaggregation of evidence by sex and age and other variables, monitoring activities and direct stakeholder feedback

### Outputs and dissemination (organizational overview)
- The table of contents lists organized outputs and annexes covering:
  - Program Description; Overview of the Year; Logframe Outputs (including Working papers, Published Papers, Freely available books); Country Applications with IMF Country Teams; Uptake by Country Authorities; High-level Policy Conferences; Results reflected in IMF Board discussions and papers; Commissioned Papers and Toolkits; Attendance of External Researchers; e-newsletters; Outputs: Additional Information; Uptake/Engagement with Beneficiaries; Outcomes and Impacts; Costs, Value for Money, and Management; Work Plan and Timetable; Risk; Monitoring and Evaluation; Further Information; Appendix 1: Logframe; Appendix 2: Financial Reports; Appendix 3: Research Outputs.
- The report period and publication:
  - Prepared by Staff of the Research (Prakash Loungani and Chris Papageorgiou) and Strategy, Policy and Review (Rupa Duttagupta and Lisa Kolovich) Departments
  - Date: June 9, 2017

*Prepared by the Staff of the Research and Strategy, Policy and Review Departments — Fifth Year Annual Report to DFID (for period April 2016 – March 2017).*

### 2. Overview of the Year

### 2. Overview of the Year

### Progress and Achievements
- The IMF-DFID program had a successful year, reflecting continued payoff to earlier investments in models and toolkits.
- Main models and toolkits used extensively under the program:
  - FPAS (Forecasting and Policy Analysis System): a small macroeconomic model to guide central banks in LICs in their monetary policy decisions.
  - DIG (Debt, Investment, Growth) model: a LIC-specific framework to help make investment decisions that would have a strong growth impact while maintaining debt sustainability.
  - MDAM (Macroeconomic and Distributional Analysis Model): a model with LIC-specific features used to assess the impact of various policies on the overall economy as well on particular sectors or segments of the population.
  - Diversification toolkit: a data set and analytic tools to help describe the export structure in LICs and ways to diversify exports.

### By the numbers — annual outputs and targets
- Annual output in every category this year exceeded the annual output of previous years; the program exceeded or met each of the “high” targets of the logframe.
- Key quantitative accomplishments for the year:
  - 19 working papers produced (output 1.1).
  - 13 publications (output 1.2).
  - Two books accepted for publication (output 1.3).
  - 16 country applications completed with IMF country teams (output 2.1).
  - Uptake by country authorities in seven cases (output 2.2).
  - Nine events where IMF management and senior staff actively participated on LIC issues (output 3.1).
  - Team’s work fed into six IMF board/policy papers (output 3.2).
  - Seven commissioned papers to expand the network of LIC researchers (output 4.1).
  - Quarterly newsletters produced (output 4.3).

### Working papers (Output 1.1)
- The program completed 19 working papers this year, bringing the five-year total to 75 (above the high target of 68).
- The 19 working papers cover monetary and fiscal policy choices, macro-financial linkages, adapting to climate change, inclusion and gender equality, and distributional impacts of monetary and financial policies:
  1. VAR meets DSGE: Uncovering the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries
  2. Investing in Public Infrastructure: Roads or Schools?
  3. Investing in Electricity, Growth, and Debt Sustainability: The Case of Lesotho
  4. Collect More, Spend Better: Public Investment in Asian Frontier Markets
  5. Capital Account Openness in Low-income Developing Countries: Evidence from a New Database
  6. Evolution of Bilateral Capital Flows to Developing Countries at Intensive and Extensive Margin
  7. World Trade in Services: Evidence from A New Dataset
  8. Investing to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change: A Framework Model
  9. Gender Budgeting: Fiscal Context and Current Outcomes
  10. Asia: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
  11. Caribbean and Pacific Islands: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
  12. Middle East and Central Asia: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
  13. Western Hemisphere: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
  14. Europe: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
  15. Sub-Saharan Africa: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
  16. The Influence of Gender Budgeting in Indian States on Gender Inequality and Fiscal Spending
  17. Gender Equality and Economic Diversification
  18. The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality
  19. Macroprudential Policy, Incomplete Information, and Income Inequality: The Case of Low-Income and Developing Countries
- Abstracts of all the papers are provided in Appendix 3.

### Published papers and book chapters (Output 1.2)
- The program published 13 papers this year and increased publication in higher-quality and mainstream macroeconomic journals.
- Journal articles and forthcoming/accepted placements:
  1. Bilateral Capital Flows to Developing Countries at Intensive and Extensive Margins — Journal of Money Credit and Banking, forthcoming
  2. Joining the Club? Procyclicality of Private Capital In Lower Income Developing Economies — Journal of International Money and Finance
  3. Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries — World Bank Economic Review
  4. Non-FDI Private Capital Inflows in Low-Income Countries: Catching the Wave? — IMF Economic Review
  5. IMF lending and banking crises — IMF Economic Review
  6. Income growth and inequality: The threshold effects of trade and financial openness — Economic Modelling
  7. Fiscal limits in developing countries: A DSGE Approach — Journal of Macroeconomics
  8. From natural resource boom to sustainable economic growth: Lessons from Mongolia — International Economics
  9. Sovereign bonds in developing countries: Drivers of issuance and spreads — Review of Development Finance
  10. Emerging and Developing Economies: Entering a Rough Patch or Protracted Low Gear? — Journal of Policy Modeling
- Book chapters:
  11. Financial Liberalization, Inequality and Inclusion in Low-Income Countries — Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance
  12. Public Sector Investment Efficiency in Developing Economies — The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, forthcoming
  13. Empowering Women Can Diversify the Economy — Women, Work, and Economic Growth: Leveling the Playing Field

### Freely available books (Output 1.3)
- Two books were accepted for publication:
  1. Monetary Policy in sub-Saharan Africa
     - Collects policy- and research-oriented work by IMF staff on monetary policy in sub-Saharan Africa.
     - Objectives: comprehensive view of evolving monetary policy frameworks; review of empirical evidence on effects of monetary policy in the region; present efforts to develop modern macroeconomic models suitable for African countries.
     - Edited by Andrew Berg and Rafael Portillo. Accepted for publication by Oxford University Press and will likely be available in December 2017.
  2. Gender Equality and Fiscal Policies
     - Summarizes lessons from the global study of gender budgeting and describes significant gender budgeting efforts worldwide.
     - Accepted by the IMF’s Publications Division; the book will be released in the fall of 2017.

### Uptake by IMF country teams and partner authorities (Output 2)
- Output 2.1 — Country applications: 16 applications completed with IMF country teams:
  - One application used FPAS.
  - Four applications used the DIG model and related tools to assess effects of investment scaling up on debt sustainability.
  - Six applications used MDAM and related research on inclusion.
  - Five applications used the diversification toolkit and related research on structural issues.
- FPAS framework activity:
  - Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) Customized Training for IMF Country Teams: ICD and AFR developed FPAS framework and delivered training comprising (i) theoretical and operational lectures, (ii) software training by ITD, and (iii) hands-on modelling and forecasting sessions, supplemented by hands-on assignments.
- DIG/Investment scaling up/Debt sustainability country applications (selected examples):
  - Burkina Faso: 2016 Selected Issues Paper applied the Buffie et al. (2012) DIG model to assess public investment scaling up and long-term debt sustainability under the National Economic and Social Development Plan.
  - Kyrgyz Republic: 2016 Article IV Consultation used the Buffie et al. (2012) DIG model under the IPSI initiative to assess macroeconomic implications of public infrastructure investment scaling-up; findings: scaling-up could modestly support growth in the baseline without adverse external shocks and at current public investment efficiency; without improvement in public investment efficiency, adverse shocks (e.g., further decline in commodity prices) can undermine debt sustainability.
  - Maldives: 2016 Article IV Consultation applied Buffie et al. (2012) DIG model to assess growth, fiscal, and debt sustainability implications of airport-focused infrastructure scaling up; findings: significant impact on public finances requiring large tax increases; inefficiencies and uncertainty in complementary private investment increase downside risks.
  - Namibia: Selected Issues assessed impact on growth of alternative fiscal consolidation strategies using Buffie et al. (2012) model simulations; recommendation: combine revenue and expenditure measures with fiscal structural reforms to minimize negative growth impacts.
- MDAM/Inclusion country applications (selected examples):
  - Guatemala: Selected Issues Paper and 2016 Article IV Consultation quantified poverty gap and estimated effects on growth and redistribution of alternative tax/spending policy combinations; findings: raising revenues through higher and more progressive PIT would be less detrimental to growth and poverty/inequality than the VAT; redistributing 1 percent of GDP through existing cash transfer program would reduce extreme poverty by 4 percentage points; trade-offs on spending imply increases in both cash transfers and public investment are needed to reduce poverty while fostering growth.
  - Honduras: 2016 Article IV Consultation found progress on inclusive growth reforms; evidence that some fiscal measures were regressive (e.g., VAT increase), but authorities redistributed additional resources via direct transfers such as the program Vida Mejor; fiscal stabilization lowered interest rates, boosting rural business opportunities and decreasing poverty and inequality; recommendation: structural reforms to improve labour mobility across sectors will be key for further gains.
- Output 2.2 — Uptake by authorities: seven cases of uptake by country authorities.
  - Focused efforts toward central banks in SSA: Ghana, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique; workshops engaged a broad group of SSA central banks and deepened involvement with the East African Community’s Monetary Affairs Committee.
  - DIG model used in engagement with Vanuatu authorities on promoting resilient infrastructure to withstand natural disasters.

### Engagement, dissemination, and influence on IMF policy (Outputs 3 and 4)
- IMF management and senior staff participated in nine events organized by the IMF-DFID team and other venues, with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde actively engaged in several (output 3.1).
- The team’s research fed into six key IMF papers (output 3.2), including:
  - A major report on macroeconomic developments and prospects in low-income developing countries (the LDIC report).
  - A Staff Discussion Note on macro-structural policies and income inequality in LIDCs.
  - Contributions to the World Economic Outlook and SSA Regional Economic Outlook.
- Network expansion and capacity building:
  - Commissioned seven papers to engage external LIC researchers (output 4.1).
  - Active participation in high-level policy conferences, including CSAE annual conference, AEA, and LACEA (output 4.2).
  - Produced quarterly newsletters to disseminate program results (output 4.3).
  - Outreach through speeches, blogs, Finance & Development, IMF Research Bulletin, and media engagement; notable favorable coverage in The Economist for gender budgeting work.

### Challenges and Disappointments
- IMF introduced several changes in budget tracking and reporting requirements; short-term costs included extensive training and cross-departmental consultation, reducing time available for project and budget officers to devote to outputs.
- Staff turnover: some researchers hired under the program were absorbed into IMF staff and some research officers left for graduate schools — positive long-term development but added short-term management costs.
- Difficulties keeping the program website up to date given the large volume of material requiring posting.

*Source: IMF-DFID research program annual overview, "2. Overview of the Year".*

### 8. Bolivia: Article IV Consultation

### 8. Bolivia: Article IV Consultation

### Macroeconomic performance and buffers
- Bolivia’s macroeconomic management of the commodity boom facilitated a decade of strong macroeconomic performance and poverty reduction and the accumulation of sizable policy buffers.
- Staff analysis suggests that sharply lower commodity prices pose serious challenges to making further progress towards the objectives of eradication of extreme poverty, better access to health and education, and state-led industrialization.

### Related country analyses and cross-cutting analytical work
- Myanmar: Staff analysis of financial sector reform finds that financial liberalization i) increases savings, private credit, and growth; ii) reduces nationwide inequality and poverty; and iii) increases access to credit for the rural population and has a positive effect on agricultural output and farm income.
  - The IMF mission chief for Myanmar reported that authorities are highly receptive to expanding financial inclusion and access to credit and are considering policy changes in line with the Selected Issues Paper; the analysis has been used for engagement with stakeholders as part of post-Article IV outreach.
- Morocco: A Selected Issues Paper quantifies the effect of gender inequality on growth and estimates income losses due to low female labour force participation.
  - Closing overall gender gaps could help Morocco close its GDP per capita gap with benchmark countries by up to 1 percentage point.
  - Simulations indicate that gradually closing gender gaps in labour force participation could lead to significant long-term income gains.
  - Policy recommendations include investing in secondary education for women and in infrastructure, and reforming gender-discriminatory tax policies and laws.
- Diversification-focused Selected Issues Papers for Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Senegal analyze export diversification, resilience to commodity price swings, and sectoral competitiveness, with specific comparative references to countries such as Tanzania, Cote d’Ivoire, Vietnam, and Mali.
- Vanuatu: Article IV work used sectoral real effective exchange rate (REER) analysis to uncover price competitiveness challenges in a small state context.
- Latin America: A paper for the Western Hemisphere Department’s Cluster Report shows that diversification helps promote export surges in LAC countries through the extensive margin of trade.

### Capacity building and uptake by country authorities
- The IMF coordinated with country authorities on seven projects, delivering training, technical assistance, and analytical support:
  - East African Community (EAC) Monetary Affairs Committee: Delivered two presentations in Uganda on July 11-14, 2016, on FPAS; EAC governors expressed support for adopting FPAS and requested the IMF team to moderate bi-annual EAC FPAS working group meetings; the team participated in the November 2016 meeting in Zanzibar.
  - Bank of Ghana: Arranged three customized training missions to enhance decision-making, develop a communication strategy, and strengthen forecasting and analytical capacities to reinforce the inflation targeting framework.
  - Bank of Tanzania: Helped develop a capacity-building plan with milestones including creating a forecasting team for FPAS, establishing a forecasting calendar, regular staff presentations, and a regular monetary policy report.
  - Bank of Malawi: Conducted a scoping mission to launch a medium-term capacity development plan to modernize monetary policy through FPAS, enhance monetary operations and market development, and improve external communications; subsequent missions provided intensive hands-on modelling and forecasting training and launched a semi-structural quarterly projection model.
  - Bank of Mozambique: Assisted in reviewing forecasting practices, checking performance of the core structural model, and developing additional tools for FPAS; BoM Governor strongly supports the capacity building project as the Bank transitions to an interest rate-based operational framework.
  - African Training Institute Workshop: Organized mid- and high-level peer-to-peer workshops on modernizing monetary policy frameworks; participants agreed on the role of structural models in FPAS and emphasized using models to tell forecast stories.
  - Vanuatu: Employed a refined Debt-Investment-Growth model to assess resilient infrastructure and maintenance funding; findings highlighted positive spillovers from adaptation investments and the importance of stable allocations (e.g., Infrastructure Maintenance Fund) and donor support; authorities broadly concurred with debt sustainability assessment, noted medium-term pressure from an ambitious development plan, agreed on rebuilding fiscal buffers, and indicated intentions to seek grant financing and expect comprehensive tax reform to yield additional revenues.

### Engagement by senior IMF policymakers and high-level events
- IMF management and senior staff participated in nine high-level policy events where project outputs were featured:
  - Low-income and Developing Countries conference during IMF 2016 Spring Meetings (one-day).
  - Conference on Gender and Macroeconomics on March 23-24, 2017 at IMF Headquarters.
  - Third Annual Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy and Income Inequality on February 9-10, 2017 at IMF HQ.
  - Conference on Fiscal Policies and Gender Equality on November 7, 2016 (approximately 225 attendees).
  - Conference on Global Labour Markets on September 1-2, 2016.
  - IMF Annual Meetings Seminar “Toward Better Infrastructure in Developing Countries” as part of the 2016 Annual Meetings.
  - UN High Level Dialogue on Challenges Facing Commodity-Dependent LICs: Presentation on fiscal and structural challenges; used the diversification toolkit and the DIGNAR model to illustrate policy choices and the counter-productive effects of adjustment solely through sharp cuts in public investment.
  - UN Session on Challenges for Least Developed Countries: Presentation of Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries - 2016.
  - International Labour Organization session on Fiscal and Structural Challenges facing LICs: Presentation using research and toolkits, attended by officials from a dozen LICs.

### Reflection of research in IMF papers and Board discussions
- Research results were reflected in six major IMF reports in the year:
  - Two Board papers:
    - Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries - 2016: Documents incomplete adjustment to “lower for long” commodity prices; discusses policy actions for financial sector stresses, medium-term fiscal risks, and accelerating infrastructure investment; parts relied on IMF-DFID project research.
    - Small States' Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change - Role for the IMF: Notes that on average the annual cost of disasters for small states is nearly 2 percent of GDP—more than four times that for larger countries; about 9 percent of disasters in small states involve damage of more than 30 percent of GDP, compared to less than 1 percent for larger states; team provided an annex on modelling disaster impacts and policy actions.
  - One Staff Discussion Note:
    - Macro-Structural Policies and Income Inequality in Low-Income Developing Countries: Confirms that macro-structural policies to raise growth have important distributional consequences dependent on reform design and country characteristics; explores designing reform packages to make pro-growth policies more inclusive; discussed by the IMF Executive Board in an informal seminar and highlighted by the IMF Managing Director in a blog and speech.
  - Twice in flagship outputs:
    - World Economic Outlook (WEO): WEO Box 1.2 “Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook in Low-Income Developing Countries: The Role of External Factors” draws on the team’s research to parse external factors—sharply lower commodity prices, lower growth in trading partners, and tighter financing conditions—behind the slowdown in low-income developing countries.
    - Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook: (research reflected in report).

*IMF — june2017: 8. Bolivia: Article IV Consultation and related country and thematic analyses*

### 5. WEO Box 2.1. “Capital Flows to Low Income Developing Countries” draws on the team’s research to

### june2017 - 5. WEO Box 2.1. “Capital Flows to Low Income Developing Countries” draws on the team’s research to

### Research focus and major themes
- Analysed the experience with capital flows in low-income developing countries (LIDCs) in the period after the global financial crisis and highlighted important differences in the experience from other emerging market economies.
- Examined benefits of export diversification for sub-Saharan Africa as an important channel to foster growth and increase resilience.
- Emphasized supporting infrastructure upgrades, price competitiveness, trade openness, and equal opportunities as powerful levers to enable export diversification.

### Commissioned papers (Output 4.1)
- Seven papers were commissioned:
  - 1. Asia: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
  - 2. Caribbean and Pacific Islands: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
  - 3. Western Hemisphere: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
  - 4. Europe: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
  - 5. Policy Lessons from Okun’s Law for African Countries
  - 6. Okun’s Law: Unfit for Low-Income Countries?
  - 7. Investing to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change: A Framework Model
- Implementation notes:
  - First four papers were part of the gender budgeting project and were revised for inclusion in an IMF book on the topic.
  - Two labour market papers were presented at the Global Labour Markets conference; authors will address feedback for publication in a special issue of Open Economies Review.
  - The climate-change framework paper will be developed further to address how LICs should mitigate and adapt to climate change.

### Toolkits released (Output 4.1.1)
- Three toolkits released:
  - 1. International Trade in Service and the Comparative Advantage of Nations, 2017: dataset providing the first compilation of detailed historical and new data on world trade in services; useful for macroeconomic competitiveness and understanding technological forces affecting rapid resource reallocation in specific sectors.
  - 2. IMF Gender Portal: first-ever global review of policymakers’ use of tax and spending policies to promote gender equality; online database toolkit of gender equality indicators worldwide; toolkit includes successful gender budgeting practices, case studies from six regional country surveys, and two time-consistent indices of gender equality spanning 1990–2013.
  - 3. Distributional Incidence Analysis: EXCEL-based user-friendly toolkit and manual (published October 2016) to conduct incidence analysis of fuel price subsidy reform; provides estimates of direct and indirect welfare impacts of fuel price increases and distribution of impacts across household income groups; has been used by country teams and in IMF technical assistance work (e.g. Mali).

### Dissemination, presentations, and outreach (Output 4.2 and 4.3)
- Presentations and workshops:
  - The team made 20 presentations at high-level policy conferences, including gender budgeting workshops and conferences organized by leading economics associations; continued major role in the Center for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) annual conference.
  - Selected conferences and events included:
    - 1. Gaidar Forum, Moscow, January 2017
    - 2. Navarra Center for International Development Conference, Madrid, June 2016 (keynote by Chris Papageorgiou; presentation by Stefania Fabrizio)
    - 3. The Global Challenges workshop, University of Milan/Bocconi/Catholic University of Milan
    - 4. Conference on Financial Intermediation in Emerging Markets, Cape Town, December 2016
    - 5. 5th Emerging Scholars in Banking and Finance Conference, Cass Business School, December 2016
    - 6. Center of Excellence in Finance, Gender Responsive Budgeting, Ljubljana, April 2016
    - 7. Innovations in Gender Responsive Budgeting: Asia Pacific, UN Women and Government of India, Jaipur, December 2016
    - 8. American Economic Association Meetings, January 2017
    - 9. Latin American and the Caribbean Economics Association, November 2016
    - 10. Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings - Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, November 2016
    - 11. Southern Economics Association, Washington DC, November 2016
  - 2017 CSAE Conference program items (selected):
    - 12. Investing in Public Infrastructure: Roads or Schools
    - 13. Non-FDI Capital Inflows in Low-Income Countries: Catching the Wave?
    - 14. Stylized Facts about Business Cycles in Sub-Saharan Africa
    - 15. Emissions and Growth: Who is to blame and how to improve?
    - 16. Room for Discretion? The Political Economy of the World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
    - 17. The Macroeconomic and Distributional Effects of Public Investment in Developing Economies
    - 18. Global Value Chain and Foreign Investors: An empirical analysis on Sub Saharan Africa and Vietnam
    - 19. Macroprudential Policy, Incomplete Information and Inequality: The case of Low Income and Developing Countries
    - 20. Commodity Prices and Bank Lending in Low-Income Countries
- E-newsletters and periodic dissemination (Output 4.3):
  - Quarterly e-newsletters spotlighting working papers, conferences, and activities:
    - 1. May 2016 Newsletter
    - 2. August 2016 Newsletter
    - 3. November 2016 Newsletter
    - 4. February 2017 Newsletter
  - Additional dissemination channels: speeches, blogs, Finance & Development magazine, IMF Research Bulletin, IMF website and IMF Twitter feed, and internal IMF intranet.

### Publications, briefs, and editorial coverage
- Staff Discussion Note (SDN) on inequality in LICs:
  - Publicized by the IMF Managing Director during a speech in Uganda; emphasized link between inequality and reforms in fiscal policy, financial sector policy, and agriculture, and recommended good jobs for young people, emphasis on education and health care, and assistance to the poor including social safety nets.
  - Generated three blogs using SDN analysis:
    - The Fruits of Growth: Economic Reforms and Lower Inequality
    - Chart of the Week: Growth and Inequality
    - Chart of the Week: Access to Banking Services
- Other notable blogs and articles:
  - IMF Deputy Managing Director Tao Zhang wrote a blog on infrastructure in LICs drawing on team research: Roads to Stronger Growth in Low-Income Countries.
  - Prakash Loungani authored two blogs:
    - Inclusive Growth and the IMF
    - The IMF’s Work on Inequality: Bridging Research and Reality
- Articles in Finance & Development:
  - Non-technical explanation of IMF Working Paper “Macroeconomic Dimensions of Public-Private Partnerships” featured in September 2016 issue.
  - Preview on implications of the robot revolution for equality appeared in September 2016 issue, drawing on research by Andy Berg, Ed Buffie, and Felipe Zanna.
- Articles in IMF Research Bulletin:
  - Seven Questions on Estimating Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries (summarizing work by Chris Adam, Andy Berg, others).
  - Does Growth Create Jobs? Evidence for Advanced and Developing Economies (summarizing differences in jobs-growth link between advanced and developing economies).
  - The Future Wealth of Nations: World Trade in Services (introducing the services trade dataset; notes services exports from developing countries have grown tenfold since 1990 and at twice the rate of services exports from advanced economies; developing countries’ share rose from 3 percent in 1970 to over 20 percent in 2014).

### Media coverage and other outreach
- Gender budgeting publicity:
  - The Economist featured two articles and a March blog after interviewing Janet Stotsky, Diane Elson, and Lisa Kolovich; additional media coverage reported results in India, Jamaica, Nigeria, the Philippines, and Tanzania.
  - IMF press conference presented main findings of the gender budgeting global survey; IMF Twitter promoted gender conferences and toolkit launch (#IMFGENDER); project featured on IMF Gender website.
  - March 2017 IMF News article featured team’s work on gender inequality and gender budgeting in Morocco.
- Other outreach and presentations:
  - UN TV interview with Stefania Fabrizio on domestic macroeconomic policy and distributional perspectives.
  - IMF Analytical Corner TED-style talk by Sandra Lizarazo and Marina Mendes-Tavares on macroeconomic and structural policy effects on growth and income distribution.
  - Two-day workshop in Kenya, March 2017: presentation on “Macro-structural policies and Income Inequality in Low-Income Developing Countries” (via video conference).

### Uptake, engagement, outcomes, and policy impact
- High uptake by IMF country teams:
  - Income inequality work used extensively in IMF operational work; model applied to several country cases and used in Article IV Consultations.
  - Diversification toolkit widely used by IMF country teams in Article IV consultations to inform development strategies for LICs, especially commodity exporters and small states.
  - Toolkit extensions added trade in services data and import diversification indices in response to user demand.
- Model-based framework and policy use:
  - Built a micro-founded model to understand distributional consequences of macroeconomic policies in economies with high informality, limited labour mobility, and low productivity in some sectors; model results informed IMF discussions with member countries.
  - Siddharth Tiwari, Director, IMF Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, noted: “The project’s model-based framework on income inequality has provided an excellent platform to analyze the impact of commodity price booms, agricultural reforms, fiscal policy and financial liberalization in several low-income and developing countries.”
- Senior policymaker engagement:
  - Team’s global survey of gender budgeting efforts formed the basis for one of the five commitments by the IMF Managing Director to the UN High Level Panel on Women’s Economic Empowerment.
  - At the March 2017 Conference on Gender and Macroeconomics, the IMF Managing Director and IMF Economic Counsellor and Research Director Maurice Obstfeld underscored the macro-criticality of gender equality; the Managing Director announced intent to push for IMF country programs to include gender-related benchmarks.

*Source: IMF June 2017 report.*

### Box 1 below.

### Box 1: Work on Income and Gender Inequality

### Highlights and outreach
- The work on income and gender inequality expanded broadly within the IMF and externally: a course on the income inequality theoretical model, two gender conferences, and an IMF Staff Discussion Note (SDN) were among the highlights.
- In Guatemala, authorities used the team's analysis on income inclusion as background for government cabinet discussions.
- In January 2017 the Managing Director launched the SDN “Macro-Structural Policies and Income Inequality in Low-Income Developing Countries” in Uganda; the SDN was also presented at an informal IMF Executive Board meeting and was praised by the Board, which encouraged uptake by IMF country teams.
- The income inequality research was presented at the three-day Global Festival of Ideas for Sustainable Development organized by the United Nations; an interview on domestic macroeconomic policies and distributional perspectives was broadcast on UN web TV.
- The team’s inequality model has been used beyond LICs; IMF economists are drawing on the model to analyze distributional implications of tax policy changes in the United States (as noted by Mr. Tiwari).

### Gender budgeting global study and outputs
- The gender team completed a two-year global study on gender budgeting (use of fiscal policy and administration to promote gender equality and girls’ and women’s development).
- The team introduced a first-ever IMF questionnaire on gender issues, sent to all IMF member countries.
- The gender budgeting work contributed to the IMF’s participation in the UN High-Level Panel on Women’s Economic Empowerment and Report; the Managing Director included advancing gender budgeting as one of the IMF’s five commitments on gender-related work.
- Findings summarized in Stotsky (2016); six working papers provide detailed country case studies and, for some countries, analysis of key gender inequality indicators.
- A publicly available toolkit links to all working papers and provides two distinct datasets offering summary characteristics of key gender budgeting efforts and time consistent extensions of the UNDP indices of gender inequality and gender development.
- The team presented main findings during an IMF press conference.
- Media coverage and features:
  - The Economist published two articles after interviews with Janet Stotsky, Diane Elson, and Lisa Kolovich.
  - Media in India, Jamaica, Nigeria, the Philippines, and Tanzania reported on the study results.
  - The project and results are featured on the IMF Gender website.
- Kazandjian et al. (2016) examines the relationship between gender equality and economic diversification; the IMF Managing Director highlighted the paper during a speech at the Center for Global Development.
- The Communications Department and Multimedia Services collaborated with the team to create a video on gender equality that debuted at a high-level IMF Managing Director panel.

### Conferences, attendance, and funding
- A one-day conference on Fiscal Policies and Gender Equality was held on November 7, 2016. Approximately 225 attendees from IMF/World Bank, NGOs, think tanks, universities, consulting firms, and UN agencies joined the opening session.
  - Opening panel participants included Ms. Christine Lagarde; Ms. Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka; Ms. Laura Tyson; and Ms. Julie Delahanty.
  - Ms. Diane Elson delivered the keynote address; Ms. Sheila MacVicar moderated the opening panel and served as master of ceremonies.
  - Media coverage included The New York Times, Yahoo!, News Nation, Plant, The China Post, The Daily Sabah, The Hamilton Spectator, and The New Jersey Herald.
- A two-day Conference on Gender and Macroeconomics took place on March 23-24, 2017. Approximately 200 attendees from the IMF, World Bank, NGOs, academia, and government participated.
- Additional funding: the team secured $175,000 in funding from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation; funding provided travel grants to 34 researchers from sub-Saharan Africa, Bangladesh, Bolivia, and other regions.

### Engagement with stakeholders and spillovers
- The team’s research fed into a Staff Discussion Note requested by the Italian Presidency of the G7 on how gender-budgeting can contribute to gender equality in G7 economies.
- External researcher engagement included Christopher Adam, Edward Buffie, Laurence Ball, Willy Semmler, Karim El Aynaoui, Markus Eberhardt, and Miguel Sarmiento.
- External institutional engagement included OECD (Washington office) feedback, Oxfam cooperation, regular contact with the World Bank, UN Women, International Labour Organization, and discussions with the International Development Research Council in Canada.
- IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde showcased some of the research in speeches. Tao Zhang, IMF Deputy Managing Director, commented: “The IMF-DFID program [on macroeconomic research in LICs] has enriched the Fund’s engagement with low-income and developing countries, allowing us to scale up our work and outreach. The project's topics—economic diversification, public investment, monetary policy, macro-financial issues and income and gender equality—reflect the range of the Fund's own work."

### Central bank technical assistance and capacity building (summary of Box 2 engagements)
- Bank of Ghana (BOG):
  - Two missions to enhance monetary policy formulation and communication.
  - July 2016 mission supported capacity building in the newly-established Department of Communications and assisted in preparing a comprehensive communications strategy to increase public pronouncements by the Governor and senior officials—important given inflation lingering at levels twice as high as the central bank’s medium-term target.
  - September 2016 mission trained newly hired staff in modeling and forecasting; reviewed simulations and presentations supporting the September 2016 MPC; reviewed projection scenarios and assisted with skill specialization within the forecasting team.
- Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM): June 2016 scoping mission launched a medium-term capacity development project; three follow-up CT missions occurred and RBM staff completed off-site training assignments.
- Bank of Tanzania (BoT): August 2016 CT mission helped develop a two-year plan to transition from a quantity-based to a price-based operational framework for FPAS; two missions under the plan have taken place since.
- Bank of Mozambique: Two CT missions reviewed forecasting practices, checked performance of the core structural model, and developed tools for forward-looking monetary policy analysis and forecasting.
- Regional initiatives:
  - Two presentations at the annual EAC Monetary Affairs Committee meeting in Uganda (July) focusing on FPAS role.
  - Mid-level and high-level peer-to-peer workshops organized by the IMF and the African Training Institute (ATI) in November 2016 for SSA central bank officials.
  - IMF team moderated EAC FPAS working group meeting in November 2016 in Zanzibar; the EAC FPAS working group created as a forum for peer-to-peer learning and experience exchange.
  - ATI, with IMF and DFID support, organized a high-level peer-exchange on seven principles for effective monetary policy.

### Costs, budget, and value for money
- Approved budget for the first five years of the project is US$15.1 million.
- As of April 2017, $13.3 million has been drawn down from the subaccount. These figures reflect a lag of actual expenses of approximately two to three months for expense verification.
- The project does not foresee changes in cost structures due to exchange rates.
- Cost-effectiveness practices: strict adherence to Fund guidelines for hiring, travel, and conferences; competitive processes for contractual hires; outputs produced under firm timeframes and Fund publication requirements.
- Budget and expenditures by activity (Approved Budget / Expenses / Remaining Commitments):
  - Contractuals: 6,613,470 / 5,872,923 / 740,547
  - Visiting Scholars: 2,317,771 / 2,157,959 / 159,812
  - Travel and Conferences: 2,919,125 / 2,231,905 / 687,220
  - Contingency: - / - / -
  - IMF Staff: - / - / -
  - IMF Staff Backstopping/Uptake: 2,081,587 / 2,001,746 / 79,841
  - Project Management: 212,530 / 136,048 / 76,482
  - Subtotal: 14,144,483 / 12,400,580 / 1,743,903
  - TTF Management Fee (7%): 990,114 / 868,041 / 122,073
  - Total: 15,134,597 / 13,268,621 / 1,865,976
- Table 5: Cost per Working and Published Paper
  - Total Staff/Contractual/VS Costs $10,168,675
  - Research Paper Costs $7,626,506
  - Country Applications Costs $2,542,169
  - Working Papers Produced 75
  - Cost Per Working Paper $101,687
  - Published Papers Produced 37
  - Cost per Published Paper $206,122
- Time allocation assumption: staff, contractual employees, and visiting scholars spend 75 percent of their time on research papers and 25 percent on country applications.
- Direct project management costs represented approximately one percent of the total budget; including the Trust Fund management fee, program management costs are around eight percent.

### Monitoring, evaluation, and communication
- Monitoring: IMF reports to DFID annually on logframe outputs and provides quarterly updates to the project website. The team sends quarterly e-newsletters reaching more than 1500 academics, policymakers, central bank staff, and government representatives; e-newsletters are posted on the project website.
- All publicly available working and published papers are uploaded to the R4D portal on the DFID website to facilitate easy search and retrieval by DFID staff.
- The project provides “gold access” to journal publications to ensure public access to outputs produced through the grant.
- Video conference calls are used when deemed necessary by IMF and DFID project members to discuss the project.
- Evaluation: No budget for an external evaluation was included in the project budget.

*Source: IMF June 2017 report, Box 1: Work on Income and Gender Inequality.*

### Appendix 1: Logframe

### Appendix 1: Logframe

### IMPACT — High-level goals and indicator targets
- Goal: Better macroeconomic policymaking in LICs leading to faster economic growth, job creation and poverty reduction (IMF).
- Impact Indicator 1 — Proportion of people living in extreme poverty in LICs
  - Planned baseline/targets: Planned 2015; 2016; 2017.
  - Achieved: (cells present but no numeric percent provided in source).
- Impact Indicator 2 — Increase in employment to population ratio in LICs
  - Planned baseline/targets: Planned 2015; 2016; 2017.
  - Achieved: (cells present but no numeric percent provided in source).

### OUTCOME — Influence on IMF policymaking (indicators, assumptions, achievement)
- Outcome statement: Deeper understanding of, and better engagement by, IMF policymakers on LIC-specific macroeconomic issues, leading to improved policymaking in specific thematic areas (IMF).
- Outcome Indicator 0 — Improved IMF policymaking and integration of LIC-specifics in project thematic areas.
  - Planned (by March 2015): Six thematic areas influenced. H (6) M (4) L (3).
  - Milestone (by March 2016): H (7) M (5) L (3).
  - Target (by March 2017): Eight thematic areas influenced. H (8) M (6) L (5).
  - Achieved: H 5; M 5; L 8.
  - Source attribution: IMF.
- Key assumption framework: risks include macroeconomic crises diverting IMF staff time, availability of high-quality academic inputs, and counterpart inputs materializing as anticipated.

### INPUTS — Financial and human resources allocated to the project
- Inputs (currency): £5,470,000 (IMF project inputs listed).
- Inputs (HR): DFID (FTEs) — 31.
- Input split tables and DFID share fields are present in logframe (DFID, Govt, Other allocations; DFID SHARE columns).

### OUTPUTS — Research production, uptake, events, and capacity building (planned vs achieved)
- Output 1 — High quality, policy relevant research on macroeconomic issues affecting LICs
  - Output Indicator 1.1 — Number of priority research papers produced
    - Planned: 36 priority papers produced by March 2015. H (36 papers) M (24 papers) L (12 papers).
    - By March 2016 milestone: H (52) M (45) L (40).
    - Target (by March 2017): 68 working papers. H (68) M (58) L (48).
    - Achieved: 40; 56; 75.
    - Assumptions: No further escalation of economic crisis; IMF able to identify high-quality researchers; academic researchers deliver on time; counterpart inputs materialize.
    - Source: IMF.
  - Output Indicator 1.2 — Number of research papers accepted for publication in top journals
    - Planned: Six papers published by March 2015. H (6) M (3) L (1).
    - Milestone (by March 2016): H (9) M (4) L (3).
    - Target (by March 2017): 17 papers. H (17) M (11) L (8).
    - Achieved: 16; 24; 37.
  - Output Indicator 1.3 — Number of freely available books published
    - Planned: N/A; Milestone by March 2016 H (0) M (0) L (0).
    - Target (by March 2017): Two books. H (2) M (1) L (0).
    - Achieved: 0; 0; 2.
    - Source: IMF.
- Output 2 — Application and use of IMF research products by country teams and authorities
  - Output Indicator 2.1 — Application and use by country teams
    - Planned: Application by 18 country teams by March 2015. H (18) M (10) L (6).
    - Milestone (by March 2016): H (26) M (14) L (8).
    - Target (by March 2017): 38 applications. H (38) M (25) L (16).
    - Achieved: 34; 48; 64.
    - Source: IMF.
  - Output Indicator 2.2 — Application and use by country authorities
    - Planned: Application by six country authorities by March 2015. H (6) M (4) L (3).
    - Milestone (by March 2016): H (8) M (5) L (4).
    - Target (by March 2017): Application by 11 country authorities. H (11) M (8) L (6).
    - Achieved: 7; 9; 16.
    - Source: IMF.
- Output 3 — Strengthened IMF engagement by senior policymakers (events and policy uptake)
  - Output Indicator 3.1 — Research findings reflected in high-level policy conferences
    - Planned: Research findings reflected in six high-level conferences by March 2015. H (6) M (4) L (3).
    - Milestone: Policy conferences drawing on outputs H (8) M (6) L (4).
    - Target (by March 2017): 11 high-level conferences. H (11) M (9) L (6).
    - Achieved: 12; 13; 22.
  - Output Indicator 3.2 — Results reflected in IMF Board discussions, Staff Discussion Notes, policy memos
    - Planned: Seven IMF Board/SDN/etc. papers using research findings by March 2015. H (7) M (4) L (3).
    - Milestone: H (8) M (4) L (3).
    - Target (by March 2017): 11 IMF Board/SDN/etc. papers. H (11) M (6) L (4).
    - Achieved: 11; 13; 19.
  - Output Indicator 3.2.1 — Results reflected specifically in IMF Board papers
    - Planned: Five IMF Board papers using research findings by March 2015. H (5) M (4) L (3).
    - Milestone: H (6) M (4) L (3).
    - Target (by March 2017): Seven IMF Board papers. H (7) M (5) L (4).
    - Achieved: 8; 9; 11.
- Output 4 — Capacity building and expansion of LIC researcher network
  - Output Indicator 4.1 — Number of commissioned research papers produced on thematic areas
    - Planned: Eight commissioned research papers by March 2015. H (8) M (6) L (4).
    - Milestone (by March 2016): H (16) M (10) L (6).
    - Target (by March 2017): 20 commissioned research papers. H (20) M (18) L (10).
    - Achieved: 13; 13; 20.
  - Output Indicator 4.1.1 — Toolkits offering publicly available datasets
    - Planned: N/A; Milestone by March 2016 H (2) M (1) L (0).
    - Target (by March 2017): Three toolkits. H (3) M (2) L (1).
    - Achieved: 1; 2; 5.
    - Source: IMF.
  - Output Indicator 4.2 — Attendance of external researchers at high-level policy conferences
    - Planned: Attendance at six conferences by March 2015. H (6) M (4) L (3).
    - Milestone: By March 2016 H (8) M (6) L (4).
    - Target (by March 2017): Attendance at 11 high-level conferences. H (11) M (9) L (6).
    - Achieved: 16; 31; 51.
  - Output Indicator 4.3 — Dissemination via e-newsletter and updated public webpage (number of updates)
    - Planned (by March 2015): H (10) M (6) L (5).
    - Milestone (by March 2016): H (14) M (8) L (6).
    - Target (by March 2017): 18 updates. H (18) M (14) L (10).
    - Achieved: 10; 14; 18.

### IMPACT WEIGHTING — Allocation across pillars
- Impact weighting values shown in logframe:
  - IMPACT WEIGHTING for Output 1: 30%.
  - IMPACT WEIGHTING for Output 2: 30%.
  - IMPACT WEIGHTING for Output 3: 25%.
  - IMPACT WEIGHTING for Output 4: 15%.

### FINANCIALS — Cash flow, budget, and detailed project status (figures as reported)
- Cash Flow Statement (In U.S. Dollars) — DFID Macroeconomic Research in Low Income Countries - Phase 2, From FY2013 to FY2017, As of April 30, 2017:
  - Balance Brought Forward: FY2013 2,385,418; FY2014 1,894,648; FY2015 1,717,827; FY2016 4,309,255; FY2017 3,035,365.
  - Contribution Received: FY2013 1,431,773; FY2014 2,051,464; FY2015 4,594,260; FY2016 2,254,739; FY2017 2,148,457.
  - Interest Earned: FY2013 1,628; FY2014 499; FY2015 752; FY2016 7,369; FY2017 16,783.
  - Total Cash Available: FY2013 3,818,819; FY2014 3,946,611; FY2015 6,312,838; FY2016 6,571,363; FY2017 5,200,604.
  - Expenses Paid: FY2013 1,924,171; FY2014 2,228,784; FY2015 2,003,583; FY2016 3,535,999; FY2017 3,576,084.
  - Cash Balance: FY2013 1,894,648; FY2014 1,717,827; FY2015 4,309,255; FY2016 3,035,365; FY2017 1,624,520.
- Budget and project status summary (In U.S. Dollars) — As of April 30, 2017:
  - Proposed Budget (DFID Macro Research 2 Approved 05/01/2012 — 03/31/2017): 14,144,483 Approved; Balance 12,400,580; Remaining 1,743,903; 88%.
  - Contractuals: 6,613,470 Approved; 5,872,923 expenses; 740,547 remaining; 89%.
  - Visiting Scholars: 2,317,771 Approved; 2,157,959 expenses; 159,812 remaining; 93%.
  - Travel and Conferences: 2,919,125 Approved; 2,231,905 expenses; 687,220 remaining; 76%.
  - Project Backstopping: 2,081,587 Approved; 2,001,746 expenses; 79,841 remaining; 96%.
  - Project Management: 212,530 Approved; 136,048 expenses; 76,482 remaining; 64%.
  - Trust Fund Management Fee: 990,114 Approved; 868,041 expenses; 122,073 remaining.
  - Agreement summary:
    - Contributions to date: 14,866,026.
    - Interest earned: 27,116.
    - Total inflows: 14,893,142.
    - Expenses to date: 13,268,621.
    - Remaining budget (including projects pending approval): 1,865,976.
    - Total outflows: 15,134,597.
    - Expected future contributions (based on signed agreements): -.
    - Total available & future contributions: (241,455).
  - Grand Total: 15,134,597; Expenses to date 13,268,621; Remaining 1,865,976.

*International Monetary Fund*

### 13. Western Hemisphere: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts

### 13. Western Hemisphere: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts

### Overview
- The chapter defines gender budgeting as an approach to fiscal policy and administration that integrates considerations of women’s equality and advancement into the budget.
- Latin American countries have undertaken diverse gender budgeting initiatives, most of them addressing public expenditures.
- The chapter surveys and assesses key initiatives in Mexico, Mexico City, Ecuador, Bolivia, and El Salvador, and briefly summarizes others.

### Key initiatives surveyed
- Mexico
- Mexico City
- Ecuador
- Bolivia
- El Salvador
- (Additional, less-detailed initiatives in other Latin American countries are summarized)

### Findings
- The surveyed initiatives offer different perspectives on how countries approach gender budgeting.
- These initiatives are contributing to the reduction of gender inequality and the advancement of women in Latin America.
- Most initiatives focus on public expenditure instruments and processes.

### Assessment and implications
- There is scope to strengthen existing gender budgeting efforts despite positive contributions to gender equality.
- Diversity in approaches provides lessons on alternative entry points and tools for integrating gender considerations into fiscal policy and administration.

*Chapter: "Western Hemisphere: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts" by Corina Rodríguez Enríquez and Lucía Pérez Fragoso.*

### 13. Liberia: Selected Issues Paper

### 13. Liberia: Selected Issues Paper

### Key message
- Diversification of Liberia’s economy is essential to increase resilience to shocks from commodity price swings, create employment, and provide additional growth drivers.

### Comparative analysis
- The note compares Liberia to a benchmark set of countries based on findings of the recent literature on export diversification and growth.

### Areas of focus
- Consideration of ways to diversify the Liberian economy.
- Discussion of initiatives to promote export diversification and growth.

*Source: Liberia: Selected Issues Paper (IMF).*

### 3. Western Hemisphere: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts

### 3. Western Hemisphere: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts

### Definition and Scope
- Gender budgeting is an approach to fiscal policy and administration that integrates considerations of women’s equality and advancement into the budget.
- Latin American countries have undertaken diverse gender budgeting initiatives, most of them addressing public expenditures.

### Key Initiatives Surveyed
- The chapter surveys and assesses initiatives in:
  - Mexico
  - Mexico City
  - Ecuador
  - Bolivia
  - El Salvador
- These five key initiatives offer different perspectives on how countries approach gender budgeting.

### Findings
- The initiatives are contributing to the reduction of gender inequality and the advancement of women in Latin America.
- There is scope to strengthen these gender budgeting efforts.

### Implications for Policy and Practice
- Gender budgeting can be implemented through fiscal policy and administrative changes focused primarily on public expenditures.
- Different national and subnational approaches provide a range of models for integrating gender considerations into budgeting processes.
- Strengthening efforts may further enhance the contribution of gender budgeting to reducing gender inequality and promoting women’s advancement.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2017.pdf_