## Niger—Assessment Letter for the African Development Bank ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [Niger—Assessment Letter for the African Development Bank](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/np/pp/eng/2012/_101812.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/np/pp/eng/2012/_101812.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/np/pp/eng/2012/_101812.pdf.json) --- ### Program design and objectives - The new three-year ECF arrangement was approved by the Board on March 16, 2012, with total access equivalent to SDR 78.96 million (120 percent of quota). - The medium-term program emphasizes: - raising domestic revenue performance to create fiscal space for development spending; - maintaining external debt sustainability; - rebuilding government deposits at the central bank to facilitate budget execution and enhance resilience to shocks; - strengthening public finance and debt management; - establishing a sound, transparent supervisory and legal framework for the natural resource sector; - improving the business environment, including reforms aimed at sustaining the stability of the financial sector and increasing access to financial services. ### Economic outlook and projections - Real GDP growth projections: - 2012: about 12½ percent (reflecting start of oil production and a good harvest). - 2013: around 6½ percent (supported by continuing investment in the natural resource sector). - Price developments: - Domestic food prices increased by more than 4 percent in August (12-months’ basis). - Headline consumer price inflation remains stable and is expected to remain below the regional convergence criteria of 2 percent by end-2012. - Selected projection highlights from Table 1 (percent or levels as shown in source): - GDP at constant prices: 2012 Prel. 13.4; Prog. 12.3; 2013 6.4 - Non-agricultural GDP at constant prices: 2012 Prel. 15.8; Prog. 14.4; 2013 6.2 - GDP deflator: 2012 Prel. 4.5; Prog. 4.5; 2013 1.9 - Consumer price index (Annual average): 2012 Prel. 4.5; Prog. 2.0; 2013 2.0 - Exports, f.o.b. (CFA francs): 2012 Prel. 38.1; Prog. 37.0; 2013 21.1 - Imports, f.o.b. (CFA francs): 2012 Prel. 17.3; Prog. 20.3; 2013 1.4 - Total revenue (percent of GDP): 2012 Prel./Prog. 31.7; 2013 14.7 (note: table includes multiple rows; see source for full series) - GDP at current market prices (Billions of CFA francs): 2009 2,481; 2010 2,680; 2011 2,839; 2012 Prel. 3,364; 2012 Prog. 3,333; 2013 3,613 ### Downside risks to the outlook - Security-related risks: - Fragile regional security situation, including capture of northern Mali by rebel forces and intensification of terrorist activity in Nigeria, which impact the security situation in neighboring Niger. - Climatic shocks: - Devastating floods in August 2012, expected to affect rice production. - Other risks: - Delays in customs administration reforms and lower-than-projected gasoline exports (see fiscal section). ### Program implementation and performance in 2012 - Overall assessment: mixed performance. - Fiscal performance: - Expected revenue shortfall of about CFAF 42 billion (1.1 percent of GDP) in 2012 due to delays in customs administration reforms and lower gasoline exports. - Authorities adopted an action plan to address customs revenue shortfalls. - Revenue shortfalls are more than offset by delays in the execution of the investment budget. - Authorities preparing a revised budget proposal for 2012 reflecting lower revenue and expenditure levels. - Performance criteria outcomes by end-June 2012: - All end-June quantitative performance criteria were met except the continuous performance criterion on non-concessional borrowing. - End-June performance criterion on domestic financing was met (due to delays in execution of the investment budget). - Performance criterion on the reduction of domestic payment arrears was met by a comfortable margin. - Continuous performance criterion on non-concessional borrowing was breached because of contracting a CFAF 50 billion non-concessional loan from the Republic of Congo; authorities are renegotiating the terms of the loan. ### Structural reform implementation - Progress and delays: - Delays in customs administration reforms delayed revenue measures. - Authorities are working on quarterly budget reports on a commitment, payment order, and payment basis that were due in May and August. - Expenditure not authorized in advance has not been kept below the maximum of 5 percent of committed expenditure (structural benchmark), but monitoring of such expenditures has been strengthened. - Progress toward a single Treasury account: completion of an inventory of bank accounts held by government entities and agencies. - Customs reform measure: authorities intend to give all known importers a tax identification number in 2013 (initially envisaged for end-June 2012). - Next steps: - Progress in bringing the structural reform program back on track will be discussed in the next program review mission. ### 2013 budget and program review - Authorities submitted to Parliament a budget proposal for 2013. - Overall fiscal balance projected to be broadly in line with the budgetary framework under the ECF program. - Revenue and expenditure levels in the 2013 proposal will be lower to take into account projected outcomes in 2012. - Authorities intend to continue to build up reserves at the BCEAO to improve budget execution and enhance resilience to shocks. - Mission schedule: - The mission for the first ECF-supported program review is scheduled to take place in early November 2012. - The mission will discuss the 2013 budget in detail and progress in bringing the structural reform program back on track, including implementation of the action plan to address customs revenue shortfalls. *Source: Niger—Assessment Letter for the African Development Bank, October 18, 2012.* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/np/pp/eng/2012/_101812.pdf_