## 112114

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---

### Overview
- Purpose: Position Fund surveillance to help members navigate a brittle, uneven recovery and a highly interconnected global economy.
- Process: Actions build on the 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) and Executive Directors’ comments; SPR will be tasked to follow up on implementation and report periodically to the Board.
- Timing and documents referenced: staff report completed on November 21, 2014; December 2014.

### Risks and Spillovers: Second Generation Reforms
- TSR recommendations:
  - Continue integration of bilateral and multilateral surveillance. Bridge remaining gaps through REOs and cluster reports. Strengthen ISD implementation, with more systematic analysis of outward spillovers and spillbacks in systemic countries; greater quantification of the impact of spillovers on recipient countries, drawing on global risk scenarios; and discussion of policy implications.
  - Integrate analysis of risks and spillovers to understand how vulnerable a country is to shocks and how they will be transmitted. Revive and modernize the balance sheet analyses; develop a GFF; and extend external debt sustainability analyses to cover external flows.
  - Address data gaps. Implement the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative.
  - Strengthen external sector assessment. Gradually replace CGER with EBA for a broader set of countries, subject to data availability. Undertake a comprehensive assessment of the external position using a broader set of indicators than just the exchange rate. In countries where the EBA methodology is applied, discuss the contribution of domestic policies to external imbalances, and use these results in relevant policy discussions.
- Actions:
  - Analytical chapters’ topics will reflect views of other departments; authors will give tailored presentations to area departments summarizing flagship messages and implications of global risks by country groupings.
  - Use Regional Economic Outlooks (REOs) and cluster reports systematically to bridge multilateral and bilateral surveillance; conjunctural REO analysis will discuss implications of global spillovers for specific regions.
  - WEO will summarize key global risks highlighted in the G-RAM; staff will issue the G-RAM to the Board quarterly.
  - For economies with policies likely to have systemic spillovers, Article IV consultations will include greater quantification of outward spillovers and spillbacks and discuss results with authorities.
  - Country teams to use an eclectic approach (structural models, other techniques, informed judgment); ICD to provide focused training.
  - Quantified risk scenarios:
    - For countries where risks could have a material impact, Article IV staff reports will include an alternative quantified risk scenario integrated into policy advice.
    - The G-RAM will provide consistent global scenarios; first wave applied to a sample of twenty Article IV consultations.
  - Balance-sheet approach:
    - Revive and adapt the balance-sheet approach; set up an interdepartmental task force to develop a basic dataset, template, and guidance.
    - Article IV reports where possible will include matrices showing assets and liabilities, maturity and currency composition by sector.
    - Staff will identify a sample of five countries—one from each area department—to pilot.
  - SPR will expand external debt sustainability analysis (DSA) to assess shocks to external flows as well as solvency.
- Data initiatives:
  - Work with G20 members to develop plans for a second phase of the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative starting in 2016, including strengthening implementation of data on sectoral accounts, government finance statistics, and external exposures in foreign currency.
  - Maintain momentum on international data agreements for global systemically important banks and BIS banking statistics to improve cross-border banking exposures coverage.
  - Over the medium term, intensify efforts to develop a global flow of funds at least for the largest global economies.
- External sector assessment:
  - SPR and RES to work with area departments to extend EBA use in non-EBA countries and develop EBA-lite to replace CGER-like methodologies where data permit.
  - Article IVs where EBA or EBA-lite is applied should discuss the contribution of domestic policies to external imbalances and use results in policy discussions.
  - A paper describing EBA-lite methodology, dataset and programs will be made publicly available by end 2015. Work underway to develop an EBA-lite type methodology for LICs.

### Macrofinancial Surveillance
- TSR recommendations:
  - Mainstream macro-financial surveillance through better tools, new practices, and shifts in economist profiles.
  - Strengthen surveillance of macroprudential policies as a complement to other macroeconomic policies in advanced countries and integrated emerging markets.
- Actions:
  - Identify themes across diverse regions and income groups; provide inter-departmental support to reflect macrofinancial analysis in forthcoming Article IVs and develop leading practices.
  - Disseminate user-friendly toolkits drawing on existing analytical tools (risk assessment, stress testing, FSAP, WEO, GFSR) and develop analytical frameworks for macrofinancial analysis.
  - Build area department capacity: develop a macrofinancial training program, adapt and incorporate existing financial programming course, identify internal macrofinancial expert networks, enhance knowledge management, encourage internal mobility, and consider macro-financial skills in recruitment.
  - Strengthen surveillance of macroprudential policies via a guidance note based on the 2013 Board paper on Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy and country experiences; stepped-up and focused review to strengthen macrofinancial analysis and advice in Article IVs.

### More Tailored Policy Advice
- TSR recommendations:
  - Continue accounting for growth and sustainability implications in fiscal advice. Undertake institutional analysis to strengthen the basis for structural fiscal balances; present fiscal advice in terms of a clear and well-justified anchor.
  - Be selective in advising on structural policies. Recognize macro-critical structural issues and apply principles: macro-criticality and Fund expertise or interest from a ‘critical mass’ of the membership; leverage other international organizations where appropriate.
- Actions — Fiscal policy advice:
  - Article IV consultations will specify a fiscal anchor as appropriate for each country, either in level terms (recommended fiscal balance or debt stock) or change terms (recommended fiscal adjustment). The review process will monitor implementation.
  - Continue analytic work on calculating and using structural fiscal balance estimates and improve measurement of potential output, recognizing operational and technical constraints.
- Actions — Structural policies:
  - Updated Article IV guidance note will articulate principles for Fund engagement.
  - Article IV reports should identify macro-critical structural issues and analyze their implications; where within Fund expertise, offer policy advice; otherwise, collaborate with other agencies or selectively expand in-house capacity.
  - Labor market policies: identify specific needs (around three to four) where Fund will strategically invest in strengthening institutional capacity and design/deliver training for country desks.
  - Establish an interdepartmental task force to identify priority macro-critical areas lacking in-house expertise and develop working links with relevant international agencies.

### More Cohesive and Expert Policy Advice
- Objective: Provide a ‘whole economy view’ and cohesive policy packages that leverage institutional knowledge, cross-country experience, and TA to enrich surveillance.
- Implementation: Continue systematizing integration of analytical underpinnings into cohesive surveillance outputs and strengthen mechanisms to draw on Fund-wide expertise.

### Recommendations and Actions to Improve Policy Advice and Knowledge Management
- Recommendations:
  - Provide more cohesive policy advice in Article IVs either by discussing the policy mix explicitly or structuring Article IVs reports around economic goals or themes to better capture policy interactions.
  - Better leverage expert analysis and advice. Concerted efforts to draw on cross-country policy experiences; strengthen TA integration in surveillance; enhance collaboration with other organizations in specific areas.
- Actions — Knowledge management (KM):
  - Update the Article IV guidance note to clarify that all Article IV reports should explicitly discuss the policy mix and encourage staff to structure reports around economic goals and themes (rather than by sector) to facilitate better discussion of policy interactions.
  - Launch an initiative to strengthen KM activities aimed at better documenting, sharing, and utilizing the Fund’s knowledge of country policy experience and lessons for the broader membership.
  - Establish a small KM Unit, reporting to Management, to help design, coordinate, and communicate the Fund’s knowledge sharing activities. The KM Unit will work closely with an advisory committee of senior staff, and with managerial and support staff in departments charged with making the KM program operational. Key program goals will be included in departmental accountability frameworks, monitored by Management.
  - Finalize a draft KM strategy and work program prepared by the KM working group (KMWG). Reforms include more consistent tagging of documents with relevant thematic and other metadata, consolidating topical materials in a central location, training, incentives for documenting materials, and governance to ensure new business practices are followed.
  - Form an interdepartmental working group to identify 5-10 priority policy areas where additional steps to document country experience would have high value. Options for achieving this goal in a cost-effective manner will be explored. Article IV teams will be strongly encouraged to include cross-country policy lessons in policy notes. Implementation is expected to be fully underway once the searchable repository is in place, in line with the KM work program. The repository of cross-country materials will accumulate over time, with a good start planned for FY16.
  - Make the Fund’s expertise more directly available to members through IMF.org, for example via a “topics” page with a thematic collection of key policy guidelines, documented country experience, training videos, and other materials. The Fund is implementing a new web content management system in FY16, and leveraging this system to better disseminate Fund expertise will be a priority.
- Actions — Leverage expert analysis and TA:
  - Ensure FAD and MCM participation in the review process and missions to highly vulnerable countries flagged in the vulnerability exercises, where requested by area departments.
  - Country desks will participate more systematically in critical policy-related TA missions to improve integration between TA and surveillance and ensure TA is guided more by the needs of surveillance.

### Achieving Greater Impact — Strengthening Dialogue and Multilateral Messages
- Issue:
  - Bilateral surveillance requires more meaningful dialogue with members, delivering more candid and practical advice, particularly to systemic economies, and streamlining key multilateral surveillance messages.
- TSR Recommendations:
  - Strengthen the policy dialogue. Expand “follow-up“ on past policy advice beyond implementation to include reporting on changes in Fund advice; monitor the quality of engagement and policy dialogue through targeted periodic surveys.
  - Ensure clear and candid surveillance messages, particularly on spillovers from systemic economies; integrate key messages from the Spillover Report and the Pilot ESR into the WEO and GFSR; synthesize key Fund policy messages in the GPA; undertake more targeted communications with relevant stakeholders on the underlying analysis.
- Actions:
  - Country teams will engage with member countries on a more continuous basis and seek opportunities for informal discussions, including through staff visits and private workshops. Area departments will monitor the quality of engagement and policy dialogue through targeted surveys and informal feedback mechanisms.
  - Expand discussion of implementation of past policy advice in Article IV reports to also highlight changes in staff advice and, where relevant, the implementation of different policies by the authorities.
  - Strengthen clarity and coherence of multilateral surveillance messages by incorporating key messages from the Spillover Report and ESR into the WEO and GFSR to strengthen integration. Summarize main views on the global outlook, risks and vulnerabilities, and policy messages from all multilateral products in the GPA.
  - Revisit departments and country communication strategies to ensure that the substance of key Fund policy messages is appropriately coordinated and that outreach is better targeted to relevant audiences. Policy notes will include the key communication messages for outreach to strengthen strategic communication planning.

### Evenhandedness of Surveillance
- Issue:
  - Effectiveness of surveillance requires highest quality analysis and clear evenhandedness; a significant minority of stakeholders has concerns that need transparent addressing while safeguarding independence and candor of staff advice.
- TSR Recommendations:
  - Establish a clearer understanding of how to gauge “evenhandedness of surveillance” by using equal risk-adjusted ‘inputs’ to bilateral surveillance (in keeping with the Fund’s principle of uniformity of treatment), where ‘inputs’ are calibrated to country circumstances based on domestic and cross-country risks.
  - Establish a mechanism for country authorities to report concerns, and deal with identified issues transparently.
- Actions:
  - The Article IV guidance note will clarify the Fund’s approach to evenhandedness based on inputs. An interdepartmental working group set clear principles/benchmarks for an evenhanded approach to surveillance. These principles/benchmarks will help in assessing evenhandedness when concerns are raised.
  - Executive Directors will be responsible for raising evenhandedness concerns. A dedicated mailbox will be established for concerns to be sent in writing and include specific details to allow a thorough assessment. Management will report to the Board on the concerns raised and, where necessary, plans to address specific concerns.

### Resource Implications
- Many proposed actions entail a shift in emphasis and focus of surveillance rather than additional costly activities.
- A few major initiatives—reviving national balance sheet analysis, leveraging cross-country policy experiences, and deepening advice on labor market issues—will entail an additional cost, some of which will be temporary.
- Estimated cost: $2.5-3 million per year over the next five years.
- These initiatives are considered imperative to more effective surveillance and will require discussion of relative priorities in the broader strategic context of the FY2016 budget.

### Conclusion and Accountability
- The outlined steps build on existing strengths to improve surveillance.
- A robust mechanism of accountability is required; staff will prepare an interim implementation assessment in early 2017 to update the Board on progress.
- Next full review will occur in 2019.

*Source: Staff Report on 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review—Managing Director’s Strengthening Surveillance, prepared by IMF staff and completed on November 21, 2014; December 2014.*

### Section 1

### 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review—Managing Director’s Action Plan for Strengthening Surveillance

### Overview
- Purpose: Position Fund surveillance to help members navigate a brittle, uneven recovery and a highly interconnected global economy.
- Process: Actions build on the 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) and Executive Directors’ comments; SPR will be tasked to follow up on implementation and report periodically to the Board.
- Timing and documents referenced: staff report completed on November 21, 2014; December 2014.

### Risks and Spillovers: Second Generation Reforms
TSR recommendations:
- Continue integration of bilateral and multilateral surveillance. Bridge remaining gaps through REOs and cluster reports. Strengthen ISD implementation, with more systematic analysis of outward spillovers and spillbacks in systemic countries; greater quantification of the impact of spillovers on recipient countries, drawing on global risk scenarios; and discussion of policy implications.
- Integrate analysis of risks and spillovers to understand how vulnerable a country is to shocks and how they will be transmitted. Revive and modernize the balance sheet analyses; develop a GFF; and extend external debt sustainability analyses to cover external flows.
- Address data gaps. Implement the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative.
- Strengthen external sector assessment. Gradually replace CGER with EBA for a broader set of countries, subject to data availability. Undertake a comprehensive assessment of the external position using a broader set of indicators than just the exchange rate. In countries where the EBA methodology is applied, discuss the contribution of domestic policies to external imbalances, and use these results in relevant policy discussions.

Actions:
- Analytical chapters’ topics will reflect views of other departments; authors will give tailored presentations to area departments summarizing flagship messages and implications of global risks by country groupings.
- Use Regional Economic Outlooks (REOs) and cluster reports systematically to bridge multilateral and bilateral surveillance; conjunctural REO analysis will discuss implications of global spillovers for specific regions.
- WEO will summarize key global risks highlighted in the G-RAM; staff will issue the G-RAM to the Board quarterly.
- For economies with policies likely to have systemic spillovers, Article IV consultations will include greater quantification of outward spillovers and spillbacks and discuss results with authorities.
- Country teams to use an eclectic approach (structural models, other techniques, informed judgment); ICD to provide focused training.
  - For countries where risks could have a material impact, Article IV staff reports will include an alternative quantified risk scenario integrated into policy advice. The G-RAM will provide consistent global scenarios; first wave applied to a sample of twenty Article IV consultations.
  - Revive and adapt the balance-sheet approach; set up an interdepartmental task force to develop a basic dataset, template, and guidance. Article IV reports where possible will include matrices showing assets and liabilities, maturity and currency composition by sector. Staff will identify a sample of five countries—one from each area department—to pilot.
  - SPR will expand external debt sustainability analysis (DSA) to assess shocks to external flows as well as solvency.
- Data initiatives:
  - Work with G20 members to develop plans for a second phase of the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative starting in 2016, including strengthening implementation of data on sectoral accounts, government finance statistics, and external exposures in foreign currency.
  - Maintain momentum on international data agreements for global systemically important banks and BIS banking statistics to improve cross-border banking exposures coverage.
  - Over the medium term, intensify efforts to develop a global flow of funds at least for the largest global economies.
- External sector assessment:
  - SPR and RES to work with area departments to extend EBA use in non-EBA countries and develop EBA-lite to replace CGER-like methodologies where data permit.
  - Article IVs where EBA or EBA-lite is applied should discuss the contribution of domestic policies to external imbalances and use results in policy discussions.
  - A paper describing EBA-lite methodology, dataset and programs will be made publicly available by end 2015. Work underway to develop an EBA-lite type methodology for LICs.

### Macrofinancial Surveillance
TSR recommendations:
- Mainstream macro-financial surveillance through better tools, new practices, and shifts in economist profiles.
- Strengthen surveillance of macroprudential policies as a complement to other macroeconomic policies in advanced countries and integrated emerging markets.

Actions:
- Identify themes across diverse regions and income groups; provide inter-departmental support to reflect macrofinancial analysis in forthcoming Article IVs and develop leading practices.
- Disseminate user-friendly toolkits drawing on existing analytical tools (risk assessment, stress testing, FSAP, WEO, GFSR) and develop analytical frameworks for macrofinancial analysis.
- Build area department capacity: develop a macrofinancial training program, adapt and incorporate existing financial programming course, identify internal macrofinancial expert networks, enhance knowledge management, encourage internal mobility, and consider macro-financial skills in recruitment.
- Strengthen surveillance of macroprudential policies via a guidance note based on the 2013 Board paper on Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy and country experiences; stepped-up and focused review to strengthen macrofinancial analysis and advice in Article IVs.

### More Tailored Policy Advice
TSR recommendations:
- Continue accounting for growth and sustainability implications in fiscal advice. Undertake institutional analysis to strengthen the basis for structural fiscal balances; present fiscal advice in terms of a clear and well-justified anchor.
- Be selective in advising on structural policies. Recognize macro-critical structural issues and apply principles: macro-criticality and Fund expertise or interest from a ‘critical mass’ of the membership; leverage other international organizations where appropriate.

Actions:
- Fiscal policy advice:
  - Article IV consultations will specify a fiscal anchor as appropriate for each country, either in level terms (recommended fiscal balance or debt stock) or change terms (recommended fiscal adjustment). The review process will monitor implementation.
  - Continue analytic work on calculating and using structural fiscal balance estimates and improve measurement of potential output, recognizing operational and technical constraints.
- Structural policies:
  - Updated Article IV guidance note will articulate principles for Fund engagement.
  - Article IV reports should identify macro-critical structural issues and analyze their implications; where within Fund expertise, offer policy advice; otherwise, collaborate with other agencies or selectively expand in-house capacity.
  - Labor market policies: identify specific needs (around three to four) where Fund will strategically invest in strengthening institutional capacity and design/deliver training for country desks.
  - Establish an interdepartmental task force to identify priority macro-critical areas lacking in-house expertise and develop working links with relevant international agencies.

### More Cohesive and Expert Policy Advice
- Objective: Provide a ‘whole economy view’ and cohesive policy packages that leverage institutional knowledge, cross-country experience, and TA to enrich surveillance.
- Implementation: Continue systematizing integration of analytical underpinnings into cohesive surveillance outputs and strengthen mechanisms to draw on Fund-wide expertise.

*Source: Staff Report on 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review—Managing Director’s Strengthening Surveillance, prepared by IMF staff and completed on November 21, 2014; December 2014.*

### Section 2

### _112114 - Section 2

### Recommendations and Actions to Improve Policy Advice and Knowledge Management
- Recommendations:
  - Provide more cohesive policy advice in Article IVs either by discussing the policy mix explicitly or structuring Article IVs reports around economic goals or themes to better capture policy interactions.
  - Better leverage expert analysis and advice. Concerted efforts to draw on cross-country policy experiences; strengthen TA integration in surveillance; enhance collaboration with other organizations in specific areas.
- Actions:
  - Update the Article IV guidance note to clarify that all Article IV reports should explicitly discuss the policy mix and encourage staff to structure reports around economic goals and themes (rather than by sector) to facilitate better discussion of policy interactions.
  - Launch an initiative to strengthen knowledge management (KM) activities aimed at better documenting, sharing, and utilizing the Fund’s knowledge of country policy experience and lessons for the broader membership. Key elements:
    - Establish a small KM Unit, reporting to Management, to help design, coordinate, and communicate the Fund’s knowledge sharing activities. The KM Unit will work closely with an advisory committee of senior staff, and with managerial and support staff in departments charged with making the KM program operational. Key program goals will be included in departmental accountability frameworks, monitored by Management.
    - Finalize a draft KM strategy and work program prepared by the KM working group (KMWG). The work program will include better sharing of internal knowledge to strengthen policy analysis and expanded external knowledge sharing to better meet country needs. KM reforms will include more consistent tagging of documents with relevant thematic and other metadata to ensure searchability, and consolidating topical materials in a central location to improve accessibility. Success will require training, incentives for documenting materials, and governance to ensure new business practices are followed.
    - Form an interdepartmental working group to identify 5-10 priority policy areas where additional steps to document country experience would have high value. Options for achieving this goal in a cost-effective manner will be explored. Article IV teams will be strongly encouraged to include cross-country policy lessons in policy notes. Implementation is expected to be fully underway once the searchable repository is in place, in line with the KM work program. The repository of cross-country materials will accumulate over time, with a good start planned for FY16.
    - Make the Fund’s expertise more directly available to members through IMF.org, for example via a “topics” page with a thematic collection of key policy guidelines, documented country experience, training videos, and other materials. The Fund is implementing a new web content management system in FY16, and leveraging this system to better disseminate Fund expertise will be a priority.
  - Fully leverage expert analysis and advice by ensuring FAD and MCM participation in the review process and missions to highly vulnerable countries flagged in the vulnerability exercises, where requested by area departments. Country desks will participate more systematically in critical policy-related TA missions to improve integration between TA and surveillance and ensure TA is guided more by the needs of surveillance.

### Achieving Greater Impact — Strengthening Dialogue and Multilateral Messages
- Issue:
  - Bilateral surveillance requires more meaningful dialogue with members, delivering more candid and practical advice, particularly to systemic economies, and streamlining key multilateral surveillance messages.
- TSR Recommendations:
  - Strengthen the policy dialogue. Expand “follow-up“ on past policy advice beyond implementation to include reporting on changes in Fund advice; monitor the quality of engagement and policy dialogue through targeted periodic surveys.
  - Ensure clear and candid surveillance messages, particularly on spillovers from systemic economies; integrate key messages from the Spillover Report and the Pilot ESR into the WEO and GFSR; synthesize key Fund policy messages in the GPA; undertake more targeted communications with relevant stakeholders on the underlying analysis.
- Actions:
  - Country teams will engage with member countries on a more continuous basis and seek opportunities for informal discussions, including through staff visits and private workshops. Area departments will monitor the quality of engagement and policy dialogue through targeted surveys and informal feedback mechanisms.
  - Expand discussion of implementation of past policy advice in Article IV reports to also highlight changes in staff advice and, where relevant, the implementation of different policies by the authorities.
  - Strengthen clarity and coherence of multilateral surveillance messages by incorporating key messages from the Spillover Report and ESR into the WEO and GFSR to strengthen integration. Summarize main views on the global outlook, risks and vulnerabilities, and policy messages from all multilateral products in the GPA.
  - Revisit departments and country communication strategies to ensure that the substance of key Fund policy messages is appropriately coordinated and that outreach is better targeted to relevant audiences. Policy notes will include the key communication messages for outreach to strengthen strategic communication planning.

### Evenhandedness of Surveillance
- Issue:
  - Effectiveness of surveillance requires highest quality analysis and clear evenhandedness; a significant minority of stakeholders has concerns that need transparent addressing while safeguarding independence and candor of staff advice.
- TSR Recommendations:
  - Establish a clearer understanding of how to gauge “evenhandedness of surveillance” by using equal risk-adjusted ‘inputs’ to bilateral surveillance (in keeping with the Fund’s principle of uniformity of treatment), where ‘inputs’ are calibrated to country circumstances based on domestic and cross-country risks.
  - Establish a mechanism for country authorities to report concerns, and deal with identified issues transparently.
- Actions:
  - The Article IV guidance note will clarify the Fund’s approach to evenhandedness based on inputs. An interdepartmental working group set clear principles/benchmarks for an evenhanded approach to surveillance. These principles/benchmarks will help in assessing evenhandedness when concerns are raised.
  - Executive Directors will be responsible for raising evenhandedness concerns. A dedicated mailbox will be established for concerns to be sent in writing and include specific details to allow a thorough assessment. Management will report to the Board on the concerns raised and, where necessary, plans to address specific concerns.

### Resource Implications
- Many proposed actions entail a shift in emphasis and focus of surveillance rather than additional costly activities.
- A few major initiatives—reviving national balance sheet analysis, leveraging cross-country policy experiences, and deepening advice on labor market issues—will entail an additional cost, some of which will be temporary.
- Estimated cost: $2.5-3 million per year over the next five years.
- These initiatives are considered imperative to more effective surveillance and will require discussion of relative priorities in the broader strategic context of the FY2016 budget.

### Conclusion and Accountability
- The outlined steps build on existing strengths to improve surveillance.
- A robust mechanism of accountability is required; staff will prepare an interim implementation assessment in early 2017 to update the Board on progress.
- Next full review will occur in 2019.

*Source: _112114 - Section 2*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/np/pp/eng/2014/_112114.pdf_