## _112315 — Fall 2015 Global Policy Agenda

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---

### Policy priorities and GPA overview
- Highlights challenges from a rapidly changing and uncertain world, limited room for policy maneuver, and difficult trade-offs between:
  - supporting demand and current activity,
  - reducing financial risks as financial conditions tighten,
  - implementing structural reforms to revive growth.
- GPA called to:
  - support growth today,
  - invest in resilience and safeguard financial stability,
  - improve the sustainability of the public finances,
  - implement the structural reforms needed for sustainable and inclusive medium-term growth,
  - secure the effectiveness of the 2010 reforms.
- Emphasis on being Integration-, Agility-, and Member-Focused to better support members facing a changing world.

### Achieving a policy upgrade
- Fund assistance to help members make a necessary policy upgrade to address ongoing transitions.
- Policy advice will:
  - combine macroeconomic, financial, and structural perspectives,
  - assess cross-border policy interactions and spillovers,
  - build policy momentum by showing global benefits of action and monitoring traction of Fund advice.

### Fall 2015 Work Program: scope and objectives
- Translates Fall 2015 GPA and IMFC communiqué into an Executive Board agenda for the next twelve months.
- Key focus: refine and adapt core activities—surveillance, lending, capacity building—to member challenges.
- Continues implementation of the 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) recommendations.
- Underpins effort for a more agile, integrated, and member-focused Fund (Box 1: AIM Approach).

### Conjuncture and risks
- Global economy experiencing three transitions:
  - global financial conditions tightening as the United States prepares to raise interest rates amid its ongoing recovery,
  - China’s expected slowdown as it rebalances growth,
  - commodity producers facing the end of a long cycle of high commodity prices.
- Consequences:
  - increased financial and exchange rate volatility,
  - significant deceleration of global trade,
  - prospects for actual and potential growth repeatedly marked down,
  - downside risks rotated to emerging market and developing economies,
  - more complex economic and financial linkages.
- Work Program response:
  - continued assessment/discussion of conjuncture, risks, and policy responses,
  - anticipates likely increase in requests for Fund financial support.

### Box 1 — The AIM Approach
- Agility:
  - advice to help members cope with evolving transitions,
  - faster delivery of lending where needed,
  - greater use of online tools for technical assistance and training.
- Integration:
  - better integrate policy advice across sectors,
  - promote integration of global, regional, and bilateral safety nets,
  - leverage synergies between surveillance and capacity building.
- Member-focus:
  - deepen engagement with members,
  - better deliver knowledge,
  - ensure faster feedback to policymakers.

### Global and regional work program deliverables
- Global policy agenda: GPA to engage IMFC during Spring and Annual Meetings, review implementation, identify policy challenges, synthesize messages from bilateral and multilateral surveillance.
- Global economic developments:
  - Board discussions ahead of Spring and Annual Meetings on the WEO, GFSR, and Fiscal Monitor (March and September 2016, respectively).
  - World Economic and Market Developments (WEMD) Updates in January and July.
  - Formal discussions on Macroeconomic Developments in Low-Income Developing Countries (December 2015 and October 2016).
  - Staff work on commodity price prospects and implications for commodity exporters (presentation to Board in March 2016).
- Regional developments:
  - regular updates from area departments,
  - briefings on emerging market prospects ahead of Spring and Annual Meetings,
  - briefings on cluster reports China and CLMV: Integration, Evolution, and Implications (March 2016), and ASEAN: Evolution of Monetary Policy Frameworks (May 2016).
- Balance of risks and spillovers:
  - Early Warning Exercise ahead of Spring and Annual meetings,
  - further analysis in October WEO on spillovers from monetary policy in advanced economies and China’s slowdown,
  - continued analytical work on spillover channels and vulnerability assessments, including FSAP.

### Integrating activities and exploiting synergies
- Need for integrated fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, financial, and structural policy analysis.
- Surveillance will:
  - synthesize policy advice across areas,
  - cover macro-critical emerging issues (inequality, energy/climate change, demographics, gender) where relevant,
  - integrate IMF deliverables under post-2015 development agenda and issues facing small and fragile states (Box 2).

### Box 2 — Engagement with Small and Fragile States
- Continue work to assess needs and challenges of small and fragile states and deliver timely policy advice.
- Roll out a pilot approach using a new capacity building framework for fragile states.
- Strengthen protection of priority social spending in programs.
- Ongoing analytical work:
  - resilience of Pacific small states to natural disasters and insurance options,
  - Caribbean issues including financial stability implications of financial integration and public pension reform options.

### A. Fiscal Policy — priorities and workstreams
- Overarching goal: balance demand support where conditions allow with managing vulnerabilities and ensuring debt sustainability.
- Tools: policy advice, technical assistance, and training to develop and calibrate fiscal packages for short- and long-term growth, reduce public debt overhangs, and strengthen fiscal institutions.
- Specific deliverables and workstreams:
  - Institutional frameworks: Fiscal Anchors and Policy Frameworks (May 2016) on medium- and long-term fiscal anchors and fiscal risk management; work on medium-term budget frameworks in Africa.
  - Enhancing policy efficiency:
    - informal session on Managing Government Compensation and Employment (May 2016),
    - Spring 2016 Fiscal Monitor to examine link between fiscal policy and private investment,
    - June informal session on Tax Policy, Leverage and Macroeconomic Stability,
    - analytical work on long-term effects of fiscal consolidations in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe and fiscal policies’ role in firm productivity.
  - Domestic revenue mobilization and public financial management: follow-up to July 2015 Financing for Development: Revisiting the Monterrey Consensus; intensified use of tax diagnostic tools; roll out new public investment management tools.
  - International tax issues: deepen dialogue with World Bank and developing countries on international tax issues; work on improved assessment frameworks for tax policy.

### B. Monetary, Macroprudential, and Exchange Rate Policies
- Policy stance:
  - Advanced economies: maintain monetary accommodation, complemented by appropriate fiscal and structural policies mindful of vulnerabilities and debt sustainability.
  - Emerging market and developing countries: carefully balance demand stimulus against macroeconomic and financial vulnerability risks.
  - Emphasize clear communication and improved policy traction across membership.
- Workstreams and deliverables:
  - Policy frameworks: develop integrated view on policy tool use; November 2015 informal engagement on Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and other Developing Countries; new reference note in January 2016 on Unconventional Monetary Policies and Foreign Exchange Intervention under Disorderly Market Conditions.
  - External balances and exchange rates: External Sector Report (ESR) scheduled for July 2016; new Reference Note on the EBA-lite Methodology (January 2016).
  - Reserve adequacy: Guidance Note on Reserve Adequacy (December 2015).
  - Macroprudential policies: embed and integrate macroprudential advice into bilateral surveillance and capacity building; collaborate with external stakeholders to identify best practices and establish international principles/guidelines; analyze macroprudential role in non-bank financial sector and quantify economic costs/benefits in terms of GDP.
  - Capital flow management: December 2015 note on Managing Capital Outflows: Further Operational Considerations; late 2016 broader review on liberalization and management of capital flows; continued work on capital flow management measures and foreign exchange intervention research.

### C. Financial Sector Policies — investing in resilience
- Overarching objective: invest in resilience and safeguard financial stability while promoting financial inclusion.
- Key priorities:
  - deepen macro-financial analysis,
  - support effective macroprudential policies,
  - analyze and address “de-risking” pull-backs by international banks,
  - provide technical assistance and training on supervision, macro-prudential tools, systemic risks, stress testing, and financial stability frameworks,
  - help LICs build capacity on financial policy and prudential supervision.
- Deliverables and activities:
  - Global regulatory reforms: Board briefings in February and June 2016 on progress for banks, insurers, and other financial institutions.
  - Macro-financial analysis: expand integration in surveillance; increase support to around 60 Article IV consultations in 2016; continue engagement with academics and policymakers on analytical framework for macro-financial surveillance.
  - Financial stability and FSAP:
    - three non-mandatory FSAP assessments to be discussed in early 2016 (Madagascar, Mauritius, Montenegro) and four in second half of 2016 (Lebanon, Belarus, Guyana, Jamaica);
    - second round of mandatory FSAPs underway: Germany, Ireland, Russia, United Kingdom begun or about to start and expected to be discussed by mid-2016; six more expected in progress during 2016 (China, Finland, Mexico, Netherlands, Sweden, Turkey);
    - ongoing discussions with ECB and Single Supervisory Mechanism on coordinating euro area FSAP assessments;
    - follow-up work on 2014 FSAP Review, including strengthening FSSAs.
  - Managing systemic risk: deepen understanding of systemic build-up and management; informal briefing on Virtual Currencies (February 2016); Board engagement on Managing Systemic Financial Sector Distress: Lessons from the Global Crisis (May); Spring GFSR to assess insurance sector trends and systemic risk contribution.
  - Assessing “de-risking”: continue work with members and stakeholders to assess impact of de-risking, examine drivers and consequences for financial inclusion and remittance costs, promote implementation of relevant standards to address money laundering and terror-financing risks, and build capacity to address risk perceptions.
  - Financial development and inclusion: operationalize framework for macroeconomic linkages between financial development and inclusion; integrate into Article IV consultations; take stock of pilots on macro-financial linkages of financial inclusion.
  - Islamic finance: co-host global conference in November 2015; new paper Ensuring Financial Stability in Countries with Islamic Financial Systems (September 2016) to address key aspects relevant for Fund surveillance and TA.
  - Data gaps: Progress Report to the G-20 on Data Gap Initiatives (September 2016) following G-20 endorsement of twenty recommendations for second phase of IMF/FSB Data Gaps Initiative (September 2015).

### D. Structural reforms and emerging issues
- Emphasis on implementing structural reforms to lift productivity, support convergence, promote economic diversification, move to more market-based economies (including financial sector and SOE governance reforms), and boost labor force participation.
- Surveillance to cover macro-critical structural issues and integrate structural reform priorities into country engagement.

### Widening the scope of advice to secure future growth
- Structural reforms and macro-structural advice:
  - Fund to work on macro-structural reforms, including complementarity, potential short-term trade-offs, sequencing, and interactions with other policy levers.
  - Surveillance and capacity building to focus on macro-critical issues bearing on growth, sustainability, and economic stability within the Fund’s areas of expertise.
  - Analytical work under way or planned:
    - Integrated view of impact of structural reforms on growth and inequality (April WEO and other analytical work).
    - Assessing impact of trade and foreign direct investment liberalization on growth and complementarities with other structural reform priorities.
    - Impact of labor market reforms on employment.
    - Determinants of productivity at the firm level.
    - Macroeconomic dimensions of public-private partnerships.
    - Continued work on strategies for economic diversification, with special focus on commodity exporters.
- Trade and financial integration:
  - New reference note on trade and trade policy issues to be circulated to the Board in March 2016 as follow-up to the Review of the Role of Trade in the Work of the Fund.
  - Surveillance to be supported by analyses of potential economic effect of mega-regional trade initiatives.
  - Board engagement in early February 2016 to discuss a new paper taking stock of trends in Financial Integration in Latin America.

### Climate change, environment, and the SDGs
- Managing Director’s Statement on the Role of the Fund in Addressing Climate Change to be discussed by the Board in November 2015 prior to COP21 in December.
- Complementary staff discussion note (SDN) to take an integrated view on addressing macroeconomic challenges of climate change, including implications and risks for macroeconomic performance and fiscal systems arising from policies to mitigate climate change.
- Box 3 — Implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs):
  - IMF positioning to focus on macroeconomic-criticality and global membership to support members and ensure supportive global environment for sustainable development.
  - Emphasized policy threads:
    1) economic diversification and structural transformation within a stable macroeconomic framework;
    2) economic, gender, and financial inclusion;
    3) climate and environmental sustainability.
  - Policy actions: strengthen infrastructure and its efficiency, enhance human capital, support financial deepening, boost agricultural productivity, address inequality across income, gender, financial dimensions, and build resilience to climate-related events.

### Demographics, migration, inclusion
- Attention to macroeconomic consequences of demographic transitions, migration, and refugees.
- November 2015: background paper on causes, consequences and policy implications of migration prepared for the G20 Summit to be circulated to the Board.
- Complementary staff work on macroeconomic implications of migration from recipient and sender country perspectives (SDNs) and on impact of conflicts and the refugee crisis on the Middle East.
- Analytical work on macroeconomically-relevant inclusion and equity issues; collaboration with organizations such as the World Bank.

### Integrating emerging issues and pilots
- Pilots undertaken in 17 countries to operationalize the Fund’s work on inequality, energy/climate change and gender where deemed macro-critical and policy gaps exist.
- Continued development and dissemination of tools (e.g., templates for suggested indicator tables) and launch of knowledge exchange sites.

### IMF lending framework, debt sustainability, and restructuring
- Lending framework:
  - Fund must be agile to handle greater demand for resources and quickly deliver financial assistance, including through crisis prevention instruments; assistance may need to be extended for longer terms while ensuring timely exit.
  - Crisis Program Review (now planned for December 2015) will distill lessons from Fund arrangements during the global financial crisis.
  - February 2016: Board to discuss paper on Strengthening the Post-Program Monitoring Framework proposing revisions to policy for participation in Post-Program Monitoring.
- Debt sustainability and restructuring:
  - Continued work to strengthen framework for engaging with members in debt distress.
  - November and December 2015: Board discussions on Reforming the Fund’s Policy on Non-toleration of Arrears to Official Creditors.
  - Follow-up on The Fund's Lending Framework and Sovereign Debt―Further Considerations, discussing specific proposals to reform exceptional access framework to better calibrate lending decisions to members’ debt sustainability.
  - November discussion of Public Debt Vulnerabilities in LICs: The Evolving Landscape to inform upcoming review of the IMF-World Bank Low Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC-DSF), to be brought to the Board in late 2016.

### Multilateral cooperation and the IMFS
- Strengthening the IMFS:
  - January 2016: Board to discuss avenues for Strengthening the International Monetary and Financial System.
  - Complementary work:
    - Quinquennial Review of the Method of Valuation of the SDR (November 2015).
    - Informal discussion on the Adequacy of the Global Financial Safety Net Architecture (March 2016).
    - Formal discussion of the SDR Allocation in the Eleventh Basic Period—Initial Considerations (June 2016).
- Standards and codes:
  - October 2016: Board to discuss Review of the Standards and Codes Initiative.
- Fund governance and resources:
  - Highest priority: effectiveness of the 2010 Quota and Governance reforms.
  - March 2016: Adequacy of Fund Resources—Preliminary Considerations paper for initial Board discussion on appropriate size of the Fund over the medium term.
  - May 2016: Board discussion on future of the 2012 Borrowing Agreements and Review of Borrowing Guidelines.
  - October 2016: Board consideration of renewal of the New Arrangements to Borrow (NAB).
  - April 2016: staff update to the Board on status of PRGT finances and ongoing fund-raising activities to mobilize adequate concessional loan resources for the medium-term.
  - July 2016: Board discussion of annual Quota Formula—Data Update.

### A more agile, integrated, member-focused IMF
- Two-way dialogue and evenhandedness:
  - Address perceptions of evenhandedness and stigma; develop framework for countries to voice specific concerns.
  - Implement recommendations of past reviews such as the TSR.
  - TSR implementation: paper on Evenhandedness of Fund Surveillance—Principles and Mechanisms for Reporting Concerns (First quarter of 2016).
- Knowledge management:
  - Strengthen knowledge management (data gathering and processing, and technology investment) to better organize information and increase on-demand access for the membership.
- Leveraging capacity development:
  - Functional and area departments to leverage existing capacity development efforts to strengthen dialogue with member countries.
  - Build synergies between training, TA, and surveillance.
- Policy implementation and oversight:
  - January 2016: Board to be informed of delayed Article IV consultations through the Annual Report on Delayed Article IV Consultations.
  - December 2015: Board briefed on Implementation of the IMF Communications Strategy.
- Independent Evaluation Office (IEO):
  - Evaluation Statistics for Global Economic and Financial Stability: The Role of the IMF (now planned for February 2016).
  - Evaluation on The IMF and the Euro Area Crisis planned for Board discussion in June 2016.
  - Early-2016: staff to prepare a management implementation plan on the IEO’s assessment of self-evaluation at the Fund.

### Maintaining adequate resources and managing risks
- Adequate resources:
  - Reprioritization of Fund activities; need adequate financial, human, and technological resources.
  - Efforts to reallocate resources, achieve efficiencies, and strengthen leadership capacity to continue (Box 4).
- Budget, finances, and audit:
  - FY2017–19 Medium-Term Budget discussions start December 2015 with Budget Committee meeting on budget strategy.
  - February 2016: committee meeting on initial proposals for FY2017–19 budget.
  - April 2016: formal Board meeting on FY2017–19 budget together with review of the Fund’s Income Position for FY2016 and FY2017–18.
  - February 2016: Board to discuss the regular biennial Review of the Fund’s Precautionary Balances.
  - External Audit Committee briefings (January and July 2016).
  - April 2016: Board initial discussion of the Investment Strategy for the Trust Accounts.
- Managing human resources:
  - 2015 Diversity and Inclusion Annual Report to be discussed in December 2015; review initial progress toward new 2020 diversity benchmarks.
  - Pension Committee discussion on actuarial assumptions and methods for the Staff Retirement Plan.
  - January 2016: Board discussion on lessons learned from an External Study on Compensation Practices.
  - March 2016: 2016 Review of Staff Compensation and paper on Staff Recruitment and Retention Experience in CY2015.
  - Annual review of staff compensation before the Spring Meetings to integrate findings into budget discussion.
- Managing risks:
  - Work Program integrates risk assessment within strategic planning, accountability framework, and budget cycle.
  - November 2015: informal Board engagement on Update on the Risk Appetite Statement.
  - March 2016: Risk Report—Spring Update.
  - October 2016: 2016 Risk Report.

### Implementation of past Work Program and projected workload
- Spring 2015 Work Program broadly implemented as planned.
- Additional Executive Board meetings scheduled to brief Directors on policies in support of the Sustainable Development Goals; to take stock on progress and discuss interim options for quota and governance reforms; and to engage on climate change issues ahead of COP21.
- Several informal meetings scheduled ahead of formal discussions to enable early engagement with Executive Directors.
- Most policy meetings concluded on schedule; some delays occurred to extend consultations with the membership.
- Several country items—particularly program reviews—experienced delays; additional meetings on Greece added significantly to workload in July.
- Workload of the Executive Board in the next 12 months expected to be broadly comparable to that of the Spring 2015 Work Program.

*Source: Fall 2015 Global Policy Agenda.*

### 1.      Policy priorities. The Managing Director’s Global Policy Agenda (GPA) presented

### 1.      Policy priorities. The Managing Director’s Global Policy Agenda (GPA) presented

### GPA overview and policy priorities
- Highlights challenges from a rapidly changing and uncertain world, limited room for policy maneuver, and difficult trade-offs between:
  - supporting demand and current activity,
  - reducing financial risks as financial conditions tighten,
  - implementing structural reforms to revive growth.
- GPA called to:
  - support growth today,
  - invest in resilience and safeguard financial stability,
  - improve the sustainability of the public finances,
  - implement the structural reforms needed for sustainable and inclusive medium-term growth,
  - secure the effectiveness of the 2010 reforms.
- Emphasis on being Integration-, Agility-, and Member-Focused to better support members facing a changing world.

### Achieving a policy upgrade
- The Fund will assist members in making a necessary policy upgrade to address ongoing transitions.
- Policy advice will:
  - combine macroeconomic, financial, and structural perspectives,
  - assess cross-border policy interactions and spillovers,
  - build policy momentum by showing global benefits of action and monitoring traction of Fund advice.

### Fall 2015 Work Program: scope and objectives
- Translates Fall 2015 GPA and IMFC communiqué into an Executive Board agenda for the next twelve months.
- Key focus: refine and adapt core activities—surveillance, lending, capacity building—to member challenges.
- Continues implementation of the 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) recommendations.
- Underpins effort for a more agile, integrated, and member-focused Fund (Box 1: AIM Approach).

### Conjuncture and risks (I. CONJUNCTURE AND RISKS)
- Global economy experiencing three transitions:
  - global financial conditions tightening as the United States prepares to raise interest rates amid its ongoing recovery,
  - China’s expected slowdown as it rebalances growth,
  - commodity producers facing the end of a long cycle of high commodity prices.
- Consequences:
  - increased financial and exchange rate volatility,
  - significant deceleration of global trade,
  - prospects for actual and potential growth repeatedly marked down,
  - downside risks rotated to emerging market and developing economies,
  - more complex economic and financial linkages.
- Work Program response:
  - continued assessment/discussion of conjuncture, risks, and policy responses,
  - anticipates likely increase in requests for Fund financial support.

### Box 1 — The AIM Approach
- Agility:
  - advice to help members cope with evolving transitions,
  - faster delivery of lending where needed,
  - greater use of online tools for technical assistance and training.
- Integration:
  - better integrate policy advice across sectors,
  - promote integration of global, regional, and bilateral safety nets,
  - leverage synergies between surveillance and capacity building.
- Member-focus:
  - deepen engagement with members,
  - better deliver knowledge,
  - ensure faster feedback to policymakers.

### Global and regional work program deliverables
- Global policy agenda: GPA to engage IMFC during Spring and Annual Meetings, review implementation, identify policy challenges, synthesize messages from bilateral and multilateral surveillance.
- Global economic developments:
  - Board discussions ahead of Spring and Annual Meetings on the WEO, GFSR, and Fiscal Monitor (March and September 2016, respectively).
  - World Economic and Market Developments (WEMD) Updates in January and July.
  - Formal discussions on Macroeconomic Developments in Low-Income Developing Countries (December 2015 and October 2016).
  - Staff work on commodity price prospects and implications for commodity exporters (presentation to Board in March 2016).
- Regional developments:
  - regular updates from area departments,
  - briefings on emerging market prospects ahead of Spring and Annual Meetings,
  - briefings on cluster reports China and CLMV: Integration, Evolution, and Implications (March 2016), and ASEAN: Evolution of Monetary Policy Frameworks (May 2016).
- Balance of risks and spillovers:
  - Early Warning Exercise ahead of Spring and Annual meetings,
  - further analysis in October WEO on spillovers from monetary policy in advanced economies and China’s slowdown,
  - continued analytical work on spillover channels and vulnerability assessments, including FSAP.

### Integrating activities and exploiting synergies (II. ADDRESSING POLICY CHALLENGES)
- Need for integrated fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, financial, and structural policy analysis.
- Surveillance will:
  - synthesize policy advice across areas,
  - cover macro-critical emerging issues (inequality, energy/climate change, demographics, gender) where relevant,
  - integrate IMF deliverables under post-2015 development agenda and issues facing small and fragile states (Box 2).

### Box 2 — Engagement with Small and Fragile States
- Continue work to assess needs and challenges of small and fragile states and deliver timely policy advice.
- Roll out a pilot approach using a new capacity building framework for fragile states.
- Strengthen protection of priority social spending in programs.
- Ongoing analytical work:
  - resilience of Pacific small states to natural disasters and insurance options,
  - Caribbean issues including financial stability implications of financial integration and public pension reform options.

### A. Fiscal Policy — priorities and workstreams
- Overarching goal: balance demand support where conditions allow with managing vulnerabilities and ensuring debt sustainability.
- Tools: policy advice, technical assistance, and training to develop and calibrate fiscal packages for short- and long-term growth, reduce public debt overhangs, and strengthen fiscal institutions.
- Specific deliverables and workstreams:
  - Institutional frameworks: Fiscal Anchors and Policy Frameworks (May 2016) on medium- and long-term fiscal anchors and fiscal risk management; work on medium-term budget frameworks in Africa.
  - Enhancing policy efficiency:
    - informal session on Managing Government Compensation and Employment (May 2016),
    - Spring 2016 Fiscal Monitor to examine link between fiscal policy and private investment,
    - June informal session on Tax Policy, Leverage and Macroeconomic Stability,
    - analytical work on long-term effects of fiscal consolidations in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe and fiscal policies’ role in firm productivity.
  - Domestic revenue mobilization and public financial management: follow-up to July 2015 Financing for Development: Revisiting the Monterrey Consensus; intensified use of tax diagnostic tools; roll out new public investment management tools.
  - International tax issues: deepen dialogue with World Bank and developing countries on international tax issues; work on improved assessment frameworks for tax policy.

### B. Monetary, Macroprudential, and Exchange Rate Policies
- Policy stance:
  - Advanced economies: maintain monetary accommodation, complemented by appropriate fiscal and structural policies mindful of vulnerabilities and debt sustainability.
  - Emerging market and developing countries: carefully balance demand stimulus against macroeconomic and financial vulnerability risks.
  - Emphasize clear communication and improved policy traction across membership.
- Workstreams and deliverables:
  - Policy frameworks: develop integrated view on policy tool use (monetary policy, FX intervention, regulatory measures); November 2015 informal engagement on Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and other Developing Countries; new reference note in January 2016 on Unconventional Monetary Policies and Foreign Exchange Intervention under Disorderly Market Conditions.
  - External balances and exchange rates: External Sector Report (ESR) scheduled for July 2016; new Reference Note on the EBA-lite Methodology (January 2016).
  - Reserve adequacy: Guidance Note on Reserve Adequacy (December 2015).
  - Macroprudential policies: embed and integrate macroprudential advice into bilateral surveillance and capacity building; collaborate with external stakeholders to identify best practices and establish international principles/guidelines; analyze macroprudential role in non-bank financial sector and quantify economic costs/benefits in terms of GDP.
  - Capital flow management: December 2015 note on Managing Capital Outflows: Further Operational Considerations; late 2016 broader review on liberalization and management of capital flows; continued work on capital flow management measures and foreign exchange intervention research.

### C. Financial Sector Policies — investing in resilience
- Overarching objective: invest in resilience and safeguard financial stability while promoting financial inclusion.
- Key priorities:
  - deepen macro-financial analysis,
  - support effective macroprudential policies,
  - analyze and address “de-risking” pull-backs by international banks,
  - provide technical assistance and training on supervision, macro-prudential tools, systemic risks, stress testing, and financial stability frameworks,
  - help LICs build capacity on financial policy and prudential supervision.
- Deliverables and activities:
  - Global regulatory reforms: Board briefings in February and June 2016 on progress for banks, insurers, and other financial institutions.
  - Macro-financial analysis: expand integration in surveillance; increase support to around 60 Article IV consultations in 2016; continue engagement with academics and policymakers on analytical framework for macro-financial surveillance.
  - Financial stability and FSAP:
    - three non-mandatory FSAP assessments to be discussed in early 2016 (Madagascar, Mauritius, Montenegro) and four in second half of 2016 (Lebanon, Belarus, Guyana, Jamaica);
    - second round of mandatory FSAPs underway: Germany, Ireland, Russia, United Kingdom begun or about to start and expected to be discussed by mid-2016; six more expected in progress during 2016 (China, Finland, Mexico, Netherlands, Sweden, Turkey);
    - ongoing discussions with ECB and Single Supervisory Mechanism on coordinating euro area FSAP assessments;
    - follow-up work on 2014 FSAP Review, including strengthening FSSAs.
  - Managing systemic risk: deepen understanding of systemic build-up and management; informal briefing on Virtual Currencies (February 2016); Board engagement on Managing Systemic Financial Sector Distress: Lessons from the Global Crisis (May); Spring GFSR to assess insurance sector trends and systemic risk contribution.
  - Assessing “de-risking”: continue work with members and stakeholders to assess impact of de-risking, examine drivers and consequences for financial inclusion and remittance costs, promote implementation of relevant standards to address money laundering and terror-financing risks, and build capacity to address risk perceptions.
  - Financial development and inclusion: operationalize framework for macroeconomic linkages between financial development and inclusion; integrate into Article IV consultations; take stock of pilots on macro-financial linkages of financial inclusion.
  - Islamic finance: co-host global conference in November 2015; new paper Ensuring Financial Stability in Countries with Islamic Financial Systems (September 2016) to address key aspects relevant for Fund surveillance and TA.
  - Data gaps: Progress Report to the G-20 on Data Gap Initiatives (September 2016) following G-20 endorsement of twenty recommendations for second phase of IMF/FSB Data Gaps Initiative (September 2015).

### D. Structural reforms and emerging issues
- The Work Program emphasizes implementing structural reforms to lift productivity, support convergence, promote economic diversification, move to more market-based economies (including financial sector and SOE governance reforms), and boost labor force participation.
- Surveillance to cover macro-critical structural issues and integrate structural reform priorities into country engagement.

*Source: Fall 2015 Global Policy Agenda.*

### 9.      Widening the scope of advice to secure future growth. The implementation of

### 9.      Widening the scope of advice to secure future growth. The implementation of

### Structural reforms and macro-structural advice
- Priority: implement structural reforms to lift productivity and potential output, ensure inclusiveness, and enhance resilience.
- Fund role: work on macro-structural reforms, including complementarity, potential short-term trade-offs, sequencing, and interactions with other policy levers to guide country-specific options for supporting growth.
- Surveillance and capacity building to focus on macro-critical issues bearing on growth, sustainability, and economic stability within the Fund’s areas of expertise.
- Collaboration: Fund will actively encourage collaboration across the membership and other organizations to leverage expertise and contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals (Box 3).
- Analytical work under way or planned:
  - Integrated view of impact of structural reforms on growth and inequality (April WEO and other analytical work).
  - Assessing impact of trade and foreign direct investment liberalization on growth and complementarities with other structural reform priorities.
  - Impact of labor market reforms on employment.
  - Determinants of productivity at the firm level.
  - Macroeconomic dimensions of public-private partnerships.
  - Continued work on strategies for economic diversification, with special focus on commodity exporters.

### Trade and financial integration
- Revitalizing trade:
  - A new reference note on trade and trade policy issues to be circulated to the Board in March 2016 as follow-up to the Review of the Role of Trade in the Work of the Fund (conducted last February).
  - Note updates the 2010 Reference Note on Trade Policy, Preferential Trade Agreements, and WTO Consistency and will provide staff guidance on macro-relevant trade and trade policy issues.
  - Surveillance to be supported by analyses of potential economic effect of mega-regional trade initiatives.
- Benefits of financial integration:
  - In early February 2016 the Board will be engaged to discuss a new paper taking stock of trends in Financial Integration in Latin America.

### Climate change and environment
- Managing Director’s Statement on the Role of the Fund in Addressing Climate Change to be discussed by the Board in November 2015 prior to COP21 in December.
- Complementary staff discussion note (SDN) to take an integrated view on addressing macroeconomic challenges of climate change.
  - Work to examine implications and risks for macroeconomic performance and fiscal systems arising from policies to mitigate climate change.
  - Will discuss international policy coordination issues to finance and mitigate climate change, adaptation, financial sector implications, and the role of the Fund.
- Box 3: Implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
  - SDGs set global development agenda through 2030, emphasizing social and environmental sustainability alongside economic growth and poverty reduction.
  - IMF positioning:
    - Focus on macroeconomic-criticality and global membership to support members and ensure supportive global environment for sustainable development.
    - Emphasizing policies to promote sustainable growth through:
      1) economic diversification and structural transformation within a stable macroeconomic framework;
      2) economic, gender, and financial inclusion;
      3) climate and environmental sustainability.
  - Common threads to help countries implement development agenda:
    - Sustainable growth: macroeconomic and financial stability necessary but not sufficient; for developing countries, economic diversification and structural transformation critical; policies to strengthen infrastructure and its efficiency, enhance human capital, support financial deepening, and boost agricultural productivity are of paramount importance.
    - Inclusive growth: addressing inequality across income, gender, financial dimensions; fiscal policies balancing distribution and efficiency, regulatory measures to increase access to finance while preserving financial stability, and structural reforms to promote economic participation.
    - Environmental sustainability: building resilience to climate-related events and reforming energy and water prices; mitigating impact of price reforms on the most vulnerable is critical for equity and public support.

### Demographics, migration, inclusion
- Demographic transitions, migration, and refugees:
  - Particular attention to macroeconomic consequences of demographic transitions, migration, and refugees.
  - November 2015: background paper on causes, consequences and policy implications of migration prepared for the G20 Summit to be circulated to the Board.
  - Complementary staff work on macroeconomic implications of migration from recipient and sender country perspectives (SDNs) and on impact of conflicts and the refugee crisis on the Middle East.
- Inclusion and equity:
  - Analytical work on macroeconomically-relevant inclusion and equity issues.
  - Collaboration with organizations such as the World Bank to leverage expertise.

### Integrating emerging issues and pilots
- Pilots undertaken in 17 countries to operationalize the Fund’s work on inequality, energy/climate change and gender where deemed macro-critical and policy gaps exist.
- Continued development and dissemination of tools (e.g., templates for suggested indicator tables) and launch of knowledge exchange sites.

### IMF lending framework, debt sustainability, and restructuring
- Lending framework:
  - Fund must be agile to handle greater demand for resources and quickly deliver financial assistance, including through crisis prevention instruments; assistance may need to be extended for longer terms while ensuring timely exit.
  - Maintain sufficient availability of resources for crisis prevention and resolution within a sound and evenhanded lending framework.
  - Crisis Program Review (now planned for December 2015) will distill lessons from Fund arrangements during the global financial crisis.
  - February 2016: Board to discuss paper on Strengthening the Post-Program Monitoring Framework proposing revisions to policy for participation in Post-Program Monitoring.
- Debt sustainability and restructuring:
  - Continued work to strengthen framework for engaging with members in debt distress.
  - November and December 2015: Board discussions on Reforming the Fund’s Policy on Non-toleration of Arrears to Official Creditors.
  - Follow-up on The Fund's Lending Framework and Sovereign Debt―Further Considerations, discussing specific proposals to reform exceptional access framework to better calibrate lending decisions to members’ debt sustainability.
  - November discussion of Public Debt Vulnerabilities in LICs: The Evolving Landscape to inform upcoming review of the IMF-World Bank Low Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC-DSF), to be brought to the Board in late 2016.

### Multilateral cooperation and the international monetary and financial system (IMFS)
- Strengthening the IMFS:
  - January 2016: Board engaged to discuss avenues for Strengthening the International Monetary and Financial System, including challenges facing the IMFS and possible areas of reform.
  - Complementary work:
    - Quinquennial Review of the Method of Valuation of the SDR (November 2015) assessing currency composition of the SDR basket.
    - Informal discussion on the Adequacy of the Global Financial Safety Net Architecture (March 2016).
    - Formal discussion of the SDR Allocation in the Eleventh Basic Period—Initial Considerations (June 2016).
- Standards and codes:
  - October 2016: Board to discuss Review of the Standards and Codes Initiative, a five-yearly joint review with the World Bank focusing on macroprudential developments and a risk-based approach to macro-financial standards assessments as called for in the 2014 FSAP review.
- Fund governance and resources:
  - Effectiveness of the 2010 Quota and Governance reforms remains highest priority.
  - Meetings to advance quota and governance reform work, including on the 15th review and meaningful interim steps towards the 14th Review as appropriate.
  - March 2016: Adequacy of Fund Resources―Preliminary Considerations paper for initial Board discussion on appropriate size of the Fund over the medium term.
  - May 2016: Board discussion on future of the 2012 Borrowing Agreements and Review of Borrowing Guidelines.
  - October 2016: Board consideration of renewal of the New Arrangements to Borrow (NAB).
  - April 2016: staff update to the Board on status of PRGT finances and ongoing fund-raising activities to mobilize adequate concessional loan resources for the medium-term.
  - July 2016: Board discussion of annual Quota Formula—Data Update.

### A more agile, integrated, member-focused IMF
- Two-way dialogue and evenhandedness:
  - Address perceptions of evenhandedness and stigma; develop framework for countries to voice specific concerns.
  - Implement recommendations of past reviews such as the TSR and learn from past experience and outside evaluations.
  - Leverage capacity development in engagement with members.
  - TSR implementation: paper on Evenhandedness of Fund Surveillance―Principles and Mechanisms for Reporting Concerns (First quarter of 2016) to establish clearer understanding and mechanism for authorities to report concerns as recommended in the 2014 TSR.
- Knowledge management:
  - Strengthen knowledge management (data gathering and processing, and technology investment) to better organize information and increase on-demand access for the membership.
- Leveraging capacity development:
  - Functional and area departments to leverage existing capacity development efforts to strengthen dialogue with member countries.
  - Build synergies between training, TA, and surveillance to better build capacity in member countries and in the Fund.
- Policy implementation and oversight:
  - January 2016: Board to be informed of delayed Article IV consultations through the Annual Report on Delayed Article IV Consultations.
  - December 2015: Board briefed on Implementation of the IMF Communications Strategy.
- Independent Evaluation Office (IEO):
  - Evaluation Statistics for Global Economic and Financial Stability: The Role of the IMF (now planned for February 2016) carried over from 2014 Fall WP.
  - Evaluation on The IMF and the Euro Area Crisis planned for Board discussion in June 2016.
  - Early-2016: staff to prepare a management implementation plan on the IEO’s assessment of self-evaluation at the Fund.

### Maintaining adequate resources and managing risks
- Adequate resources:
  - Fund activities reprioritized; need adequate financial, human, and technological resources to improve services to membership.
  - Efforts to reallocate resources, achieve efficiencies, and strengthen leadership capacity to continue (Box 4).
- Budget, finances, and audit:
  - FY2017–19 Medium-Term Budget discussions start December 2015 with Budget Committee meeting on budget strategy.
  - February 2016: committee meeting on initial proposals for FY2017–19 budget.
  - April 2016: formal Board meeting on FY2017–19 budget together with review of the Fund’s Income Position for FY2016 and FY2017–18.
  - February 2016: Board to discuss the regular biennial Review of the Fund’s Precautionary Balances.
  - External Audit Committee to provide oversight through regular briefings (January and July 2016).
  - April 2016: Board initial discussion of the Investment Strategy for the Trust Accounts.
- Managing human resources:
  - 2015 Diversity and Inclusion Annual Report to be discussed in December 2015; will review initial progress toward new 2020 diversity benchmarks and discuss inclusion and flexibility in the work environment.
  - Followed by Pension Committee discussion on actuarial assumptions and methods for the Staff Retirement Plan.
  - January 2016: Board discussion on lessons learned from an External Study on Compensation Practices in other organizations.
  - March 2016: 2016 Review of Staff Compensation and paper on Staff Recruitment and Retention Experience in CY2015.
  - Annual review of staff compensation to be conducted before the Spring Meetings to integrate findings into budget discussion.
  - Fund is strengthening leadership development framework (Box 4).
- Managing risks:
  - Work Program integrates risk assessment within strategic planning, accountability framework, and budget cycle.
  - Strengthen risk ownership and integration across departments with greater feedback between high-risk areas, management action, and Board engagement.
  - November 2015: informal Board engagement on Update on the Risk Appetite Statement.
  - March 2016: Risk Report—Spring Update.
  - October 2016: 2016 Risk Report.

### Implementation of past Work Program and projected workload
- Spring 2015 Work Program broadly implemented as planned.
- Additional Executive Board meetings scheduled to brief Directors on policies in support of the Sustainable Development Goals; to take stock on progress and discuss interim options for quota and governance reforms; and to engage on climate change issues ahead of COP21.
- Several informal meetings scheduled ahead of formal discussions to enable early engagement with Executive Directors.
- Most policy meetings concluded on schedule; some delays occurred to extend consultations with the membership.
- Several country items—particularly program reviews—experienced delays; additional meetings on Greece added significantly to workload in July.
- Workload of the Executive Board in the next 12 months expected to be broadly comparable to that of the Spring 2015 Work Program.

*Source: _112315 - 9.      Widening the scope of advice to secure future growth. The implementation of*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/np/pp/eng/2015/_112315.pdf_