## _cr03393 — Executive Summary (ROSC data module for Bulgaria)

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---

### Scope and mission
- Report: ROSC data module reviewing Bulgaria’s data dissemination practices against the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) and an in-depth assessment of the quality of national accounts, CPI, PPI, government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics.
- Agencies assessed: Bulgarian National Bank (BNB), Ministry of Finance (MOF), National Statistical Institute (NSI).
- Mission dates: January 15–30, 2003.
- Bulgaria’s GDDS participation since May 2000; authorities appointed an SDDS Coordinator and expressed commitment to subscribe to the SDDS.

### Main conclusions (mission findings)
- SDDS subscription and coverage
  - Bulgaria participates in the GDDS and meets or exceeds SDDS requirements for most datasets.
  - Reserve Template data are not compiled or disseminated.
  - Production index data are not in SDDS time-series format (volume measures not disseminated in reference to a fixed base).
  - Authorities indicated strong commitment to subscribe to the SDDS and appointed an SDDS Coordinator.
- Timeliness and flexibility
  - With regular timeliness flexibility for the IIP, all categories except national accounts and the PPI meet or exceed SDDS timeliness (assuming MOF website updated monthly).
  - Current timeliness for IIP data is 12M after the end of the reference year, which is six months more than the SDDS requirements.
  - PPI requires taking a regular timeliness flexibility option; pending production index improvements, national accounts could take a special timeliness flexibility option.
  - Respective timeliness entries in Table 1 include schedules such as 80D (115D for 4th quarter), 6W, 40D, 2W, 1D, 12M, 5W, 8W, 52D, 15D, and others for specific data categories.
- Prerequisites of quality
  - Legal and institutional framework supports statistical quality.
  - Resources are insufficient for balance of payments, national accounts, and price statistics relative to program requirements and planned EU-guideline implementations.
  - All agencies demonstrate awareness of quality.
- Integrity
  - Agencies demonstrate professionalism and provide guidelines on ethical conduct.
  - Pre-release access to government users is documented (e.g., one-hour access at NSI; one-day pre-release for BOP at BNB).
  - NSI’s GDDS metadata are inaccurate and require correction.
- Methodological soundness
  - National accounts, CPI, PPI, GFS, and monetary statistics generally follow internationally accepted guidelines on definitions, scope, classification, sectorization, and valuation.
  - Improvements suggested in scope (national accounts, CPI, GFS), classification (monetary statistics), and basis of recording (national accounts, GFS, monetary statistics).
  - Balance of payments statistics require more substantial methodological improvements.
- Accuracy and reliability
  - Source data and techniques generally sound for national accounts and monetary statistics.
  - Improvements needed for certain aspects of price indices and GFS.
  - Significant improvements required for balance of payments: merchandise trade source data, ITRS, surveys, data entry controls, and c.i.f./f.o.b. factor (not reviewed since 1994).
  - Revisions practices and studies need more rigor; GFS revisions policy is not published and preliminary data not clearly identified.
- Serviceability
  - Statistics generally relevant, consistent, and available with good frequency.
  - No formal user group to monitor BOP statistics relevance.
  - Timeliness concerns identified for quarterly GDP estimates, the PPI, and GFS.
- Accessibility
  - Most datasets readily available to the public except the PPI (being redeveloped).
  - More detailed GFS financing data should be published.
  - Suitable metadata generally available except for GFS and national accounts (some details not published).

### Dataset-specific quality summary (high-level)
- National accounts
  - Broadly methodologically sound (ESA 95) but fourth quarter timeliness and accrual recording for some government output require improvement; financial accounts under development.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI)
  - Generally follows international guidelines; housing (imputed rents and dwelling purchases) is excluded; quality adjustment techniques need wider application.
- Producer Price Index (PPI)
  - Not in SDDS time-series format; publication discontinued in 2001 pending methodology; redevelopment underway (rebased to year 2000; transaction pricing implementation); timeliness shortfalls noted (monthly indices available 40 days after reference month).
  - Pending 2003 transaction pricing survey, about 17 percent of industrial sales still represented via unit value measurement.
- Government Finance Statistics (GFS)
  - Generally follows GFSM 1986; needs improved scope and basis of recording (cash vs. accrual), discrete monthly reporting, publication of revisions policy, and more detailed financing data (bank/nonbank, bonds/loans).
  - Central government domestic debt valuation practice differs (issue price) and IMF purchases misclassified in debt statistics.
- Monetary statistics
  - Generally sound and broadly MFSM-compliant; classification and valuation improvements suggested (financial derivatives inclusion from January 2003; gold valuation moved to market prices in February 2003 as memorandum item).
- Balance of Payments (BOP)
  - Significant methodological and data-source improvements required: ITRS scope and transaction-by-transaction reporting, coverage of shuttle trade and travel, residency definitions, valuation and accrual practices, merchandise trade timeliness/accuracy.

### Staff’s overarching recommendations (summary themes)
- Prioritize compilation and dissemination of the Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity (Reserves Template) and central government fiscal and external sector ARCs.
- Improve timeliness for quarterly GDP (advance fourth quarter to 90 days or 80D target), PPI (to one month), and GFS; consider SDDS flexibility where appropriate (regular for PPI, special for national accounts contingent on production index compliance).
- Correct and update GDDS/DSBB metadata (notably NSI metadata).
- Strengthen resources for balance of payments, national accounts, and price statistics to meet EU-guideline implementation requirements.
- Enhance methodological coverage and basis-of-recording practices for national accounts, GFS, and monetary statistics.
- Undertake substantial improvements to BOP methodology and source data; establish formal user engagement for BOP relevance.
- Publish GFS revisions policy, clearly identify preliminary GFS data, and provide public analyses of revisions across datasets.
- Redevelop and publish the PPI with proper cataloging in NSI publications and online.

*Source: IMF mission report — Executive Summary of ROSC data module for Bulgaria, mission January 15–30, 2003.*

---

### Institutional prerequisites, resources, and governance

### Legal and institutional framework
- NSI mandated by Law on Statistics (Official Gazette No. 57 of June 25, 1999; amended No. 42 of April 27, 2001).
- MOF authority for fiscal statistics supported by the Organic Budget Law (1996) and State Debt Law (2002).
- BNB mandates for BOP, IIP, external debt, and monetary statistics derive from Law on BNB and Law on Statistics.
- NPSS (National Program for Statistical Surveys) defines survey programs and budgets; NPSS widely used for coordination.

### Staffing and accommodation (NSI)
- NSI staffing at end-2002: total staff 1,689; permanent contracts 1,609; temporary contracts 89. (Permanent staff decreased by 190 compared with 2001.)
- NAD (National Accounts Division) has 21 people organized in three sectors.
- CPI head-office staff: six persons.
- NSI classified as category 3 in civil structure (proposal to reclassify to category 2 under consideration; CM Decree No 279/25.11.03 adopted November 13, 2003 to enter into force on January 1, 2004).
- Office relocation decision (CM No. 450 (2002)): NSI lost 2,100 square meters and received 460 square meters for rent; possibility to add stories to building under study.

### Staffing (BNB and MOF)
- BNB increased BOP division staff from eight to twelve persons effective August 1, 2003.
- MOF: Fiscal Statistics and Accounting Division comprises eight professional staff; Budget and Treasury Directorate ~40 staff; Government Debt Directorate 20 staff; two staff trained in GFSM 2001 or EU debt/deficit methodologies.

### Resources and constraints
- NSI: lack of office space, financial resources, high turnover, inadequate pay.
- MOF: resources adequate for current compilation needs but additional resources would speed implementation of GFSM 2001 and EU reporting.
- BNB: resources adequate for monetary statistics but insufficient to maintain BOP compilation programs prior to staff increases and procedural changes.

---

### Timeliness, periodicity, revisions, and major numeric schedules

- National accounts
  - Quarterly periodicity followed.
  - First three quarters disseminated within 80D after quarter end (meets/exceeds SDDS 90-day requirement).
  - Fourth quarter estimates available 115D after quarter end (does not meet GDDS/SDDS requirements); staff recommended advance to 90D or 80D.
  - First annual estimates: 115D after year end.
  - Revised annual estimates: 18 months after accounting period.
  - Final estimates (after supply and use tables): 36 months after year end.
  - Statistical discrepancy between quarterly GDP by output and expenditure approaches stable—less than 1 percent.
  - Consistent ESA 95 time series available from 1991 onwards.

- Producer Price Index (PPI)
  - Monthly periodicity met; timeliness was 40D after reference month (does not meet SDDS one-month standard).
  - PPI publication discontinued in 2001; planned recommencement March 2003.
  - Program to shorten delay from 40D to 30D; target to advance timeliness to one month noted as high priority.
  - Rebase to year 2000 completed March 2003; historical monthly series by sections/two-digit NACE from January 2000 to December 2002 posted on NSI website.
  - Transaction pricing program aims to cover about 90 percent of domestic sales; pending 2003 survey, about 17 percent of industrial sales measured by unit values.

- Consumer Price Index (CPI)
  - Monthly release normally in week containing the 10th of the month following the reference month (exceeds SDDS timeliness).
  - January index first released as preliminary; final January released with February index.
  - CPI chain Laspeyres since 1999 with annual weights; geometric mean at elementary aggregates since 2000.
  - Consumer basket: 512 goods and services; price collectors register 482 goods monthly; 4,589 outlets in 27 district centers; 31,151 price quotations monthly.
  - HBS sample size 3,000 households (2002); HBS continuous; diary period 15 days; initial response rate 60.1 percent for 2001.

- Government Finance Statistics (GFS)
  - Monthly central government operations published approximately one month after reference month (monthly bulletin disseminated within one month).
  - MOF website updated monthly (target and practice noted; MOF to update monthly).
  - Central government debt stocks submitted by 5th of the month after reference month and finalized by 10th.
  - Local government debt data collection began in 2003; preliminary end-2002 local government debt < 0.2 percent of total central government debt.
  - Domestic debt valuation: before January 1, 2003 domestic debt recorded at face value less discounts plus premia; from January 1, 2003 foreign debt to be reported on cash-received basis consistent with domestic debt.

- Monetary statistics
  - Weekly main aggregates disseminated within five days after reference week; monthly monetary statistics within 30D.
  - Since February 2003 BNB calculates monetary gold at market prices and shows as memorandum item; consistent time series since December 1995 developed.
  - Financial derivatives positions included on-balance from January 2003; sectoral breakdown planned from January 2004.
  - Asymmetry noted: BNB’s claims on banks include claims on nonoperating banks excluded from ODC coverage; separate identification recommended.

- Balance of Payments (BOP)
  - Quarterly BOP disseminated within 6W/8W (mission noted 8W and other schedules); monthly BOP also disseminated.
  - ITRS reporting threshold: banks must report transactions above 5,000 leva.
  - IIP timeliness: current timeliness 12M after end of reference year.
  - Transition period for external debt data ended March 31, 2003; data for quarter ending June 30, 2003 must be disseminated by end-September 2003.
  - Major deficiencies: c.i.f./f.o.b. factor not reviewed since 1994; significant unallocated transactions (50.6 percent of other investment–other liabilities line Jan–Nov 2002 attributable to missing economic codes).

---

### Staff’s consolidated high-priority recommendations (selected and verbatim where provided)

- Cross-cutting (High priority)
  - Take remaining steps to support SDDS subscription, including development and dissemination of a National Summary Data Page for SDDS data categories and posting ARCs on disseminating agencies’ websites.
  - Compile and disseminate the Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity when available.
  - Disseminate production index data in reference to a fixed base.
  - Provide the NSI with appropriate office accommodation; pursue application to reclassify the NSI to a higher status (to a category 2 institution) to make staff salaries more competitive; allocate additional staff within NSI headquarters for compilation and development of national accounts, CPI and PPI; and appropriately increase staff in the BOP division of the BNB.

- National Accounts (High priority)
  - Advance the timeliness of the fourth quarter GDP estimates to 90 days.
  - Bring scope of the national accounts fully into line with ESA 95 recommendations and continue to develop financial accounts.

- Consumer Price Index (High priority)
  - Extend application of quality adjustment techniques to a wider range of product prices.
  - Investigate ways to maintain more up-to-date retail industry information on the business register to support CPI outlet sampling.

- Producer Price Index (High priority)
  - Advance timeliness of the PPI to one month.
  - Re-commence publication of the PPI and update the ARC and the catalog of publications.
  - Complete implementation of transaction pricing methodology into the PPI as soon as possible.
  - Finalize index rebasing program to convert to a year 2000 weighting and reference base.

- Government Finance Statistics (High priority)
  - Improve fiscal data to meet fiscal reporting requirements for EU accession: implement new chart of accounts (with codes linking to EU and GFSM 2001 frameworks), the Financial Information Management System, and detailed metadata.
  - Disseminate information (stocks and flows) on arrears of central and local governments.
  - Collect separate (discrete) monthly data from reporting units (rather than cumulative reports); compile and disseminate discrete monthly and quarterly data to create useful time series.
  - MOF website should be updated monthly.

- Monetary Statistics (High priority)
  - Disaggregate all foreign liabilities of commercial banks by financial instrument; for back dates as far as possible, include banks’ positions on financial derivatives and classify them by sector of counterparty; rationalize treatment of certain small components of the IMF accounts in the central bank survey.
  - Value gold and nonfinancial assets at market prices.
  - Separately identify central bank’s claims on nonoperating banks that are excluded from the coverage of ODC survey.

- Balance of Payments Statistics (High priority)
  - Bring reporting instructions into line with BPM5 guidelines to comply with critical definitions (such as residency) and to allow proper coverage of data, such as adequate reporting of financial assets.
  - Clarify instructions on the accrual principle and prescribe more systematic valuation at market prices, for example in compiling foreign direct investment and reporting financial assets.
  - Improve comprehensiveness and timeliness of all source data; merchandise trade, ITRS and surveys.

---

### Authorities’ response (NSI, BNB, MOF) — key actions and dates (Response dated December 12, 2003)
- SDDS subscription secured on December 1, 2003.
- BNB compiled the Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity and completed NSDP and Template by December 1, 2003.
- NSI included monthly-disseminated PPI in the ARC since beginning of 2003; industrial production index time series referenced to 2000 disseminated as of January 2003.
- NSDP and ARC for December 2003 and first four months of 2004 posted on BNB website; national metadata posted on IMF’s DSBB.
- Timeliness improvements:
  - Beginning in 2004, fourth quarter GDP data to be disseminated within 80 days after the reference period (experimental compilation for fourth quarter of 2003 within 80 days using monthly business indicators).
  - Timelines for external trade data dissemination to be reduced from eight to six weeks.
- Staffing and accommodation:
  - CM Decree No 279/25.11.03 adopted November 13, 2003 to reclassify NSI status (to enter into force January 1, 2004).
  - NSI office accommodation losses and relocation status detailed: lost 2,100 square meters, received 460 square meters for rent; options under study.
  - BNB increased BOP division staff from eight to twelve effective August 1, 2003.
- PPI and methodology:
  - NSI resumed publication of PPI for January 2003; PPIs presented at monthly press conferences in three modes and historical series back to 1995 recalculated; rebasing to 2000 finalized March 2003.
  - Program to implement transaction pricing methodology underway; final panels and retrospective revisions to be finalized by June 2004; new survey covers groups representing about 90 percent of sales on domestic market.
- GFS and arrears:
  - MOF to disseminate arrears data; local and central units instructed to compile arrears accounting data; MoF collects monthly information on arrears for state hospitals and municipalities and plans quarterly dissemination.
  - FMIS (Financial Management Information System) development underway; FMIS to provide cash and accrual basis data and identify revisions; separate (discrete) monthly data reporting planned after FMIS completion.
  - Government Debt Directorate started local government debt data collection since January 2003; GDD presenting local government debt in March 2003 bulletin.
  - GDD to consider reclassifying IMF purchases in government debt statistics with methodological explanations.
- Monetary statistics actions:
  - Banks’ positions on financial derivatives recorded on-balance from January 2003; sectoral breakdown to be implemented from beginning of 2004.
  - Disaggregation of foreign liabilities corrected and time series revised and published July 2003.
  - Monetary gold valuation moved to market prices for memorandum items since February 2003; consistent time series since December 1995 developed for public use.
  - Treatment of IMF accounts rationalized; time series revised since 1995; new presentation from January 2003 onward.
- Balance of payments actions:
  - Foreign Exchange Law amended July 2003 to improve definitions of residency, FDI, and provide legal basis for BOP data collection including financial assets.
  - Agreement with Customs Office: merchandise trade data regularly used in BOP compilation since March 2003; source meets SDDS timeliness, accuracy, and reliability requirements.
  - Work on ITRS improvement and increased use of direct reporting through surveys started; new reporting forms to be used from beginning of 2004; BNB to draw up statistical reporting procedures per Foreign Exchange Law revisions.

*Response by the Authorities — December 12, 2003.*

---

### Selected key statistics and operational figures (preserved verbatim)
- Mission dates: January 15–30, 2003.
- NSI staff at end-2002: 1,689 total; 1,609 permanent; 89 temporary.
- NAD staff: 21 persons.
- CPI head-office staff: six.
- HBS sample size: 3,000 households (2002); earlier 6,000 in 2000 and 2001.
- CPI consumer basket: 512 goods and services; monthly price collection: 482 goods; 4,589 outlets; 31,151 price quotations each month.
- PPI coverage: transaction pricing to cover some 83 percent (or about 90 percent per response program) of industrial sales; 17 percent represented via unit value measurement pending survey.
- PPI base year change: current base 1995; rebasing to year 2000 completed March 2003.
- PPI timeliness observed: 40D after reference month (mission observed); target to shorten to 30D and ultimately one month.
- Quarterly national accounts first three quarters timeliness: 80D; fourth quarter timeliness: 115D.
- IIP timeliness: 12M after end of reference year.
- BOP unallocated data: 50.6 percent of the total for other investment–other liabilities during Jan–Nov 2002 attributable to missing economic codes.
- NSI reclassification action: CM Decree No 279/25.11.03 adopted November 13, 2003 to enter into force on January 1, 2004.
- SDDS subscription date: December 1, 2003.
- BNB BOP division staff increased from eight to twelve effective August 1, 2003.
- Local government debt share preliminary end-2002: less than 0.2 percent of total central government debt.
- Monetary gold policy: since July 1997 BNB values monetary gold at 500 Bulgarian leva per troy ounce or market price if lower; since February 2003 BNB calculates monetary gold at market prices as memorandum item; consistent time series since December 1995 developed.

---

*Source: IMF staff report — ROSC data module for Bulgaria (Executive Summary and dataset-specific assessments), mission January 15–30, 2003; authorities’ written responses dated December 12, 2003, as provided in the supplied content unit.*

### Executive Summary ......................................................................................................

### _cr03393 - Executive Summary

### Scope and mission
- Report: ROSC data module reviewing Bulgaria’s data dissemination practices against the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) and an in-depth assessment of the quality of national accounts, CPI, PPI, government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics.
- Agencies assessed: Bulgarian National Bank (BNB), Ministry of Finance (MOF), National Statistical Institute (NSI).
- Mission dates: January 15–30, 2003.
- Bulgaria’s GDDS participation since May 2000; authorities have appointed an SDDS Coordinator and expressed commitment to subscribe to the SDDS.

### Main conclusions (mission findings)
- SDDS subscription and coverage:
  - Bulgaria participates in the GDDS and meets or exceeds SDDS requirements for most datasets.
  - Reserve Template data are not compiled or disseminated.
  - Production index data are not in a time-series format required by the SDDS (volume measures not disseminated in reference to a fixed base).
  - The authorities indicated strong commitment to subscribe to the SDDS and have appointed an SDDS Coordinator.
- Timeliness and flexibility:
  - With regular timeliness flexibility for the IIP, all categories except national accounts and the PPI meet or exceed SDDS timeliness (assuming MOF website updated monthly).
  - Current timeliness for IIP data is 12 months after the end of the reference year, which is six months more than the SDDS requirements.
  - PPI requires taking a regular timeliness flexibility option; pending production index improvements, national accounts could take a special timeliness flexibility option.
  - Respective timeliness entries in Table 1 include exact schedules such as 80D (115D for 4th quarter), 6W, 40D, 2W, 1D, 12M, 5W, 8W, 52D, 15D, and others for specific data categories as presented in the source table.
- Prerequisites of quality:
  - Legal and institutional framework supports statistical quality.
  - Resources are insufficient for balance of payments, national accounts, and price statistics relative to program requirements and planned EU-guideline implementations.
  - All agencies demonstrate awareness of quality.
- Integrity:
  - Agencies demonstrate professionalism and provide guidelines on ethical conduct.
  - Pre-release access to government users is documented.
  - NSI’s GDDS metadata are inaccurate.
- Methodological soundness:
  - National accounts, CPI, PPI, GFS, and monetary statistics generally follow internationally accepted guidelines on definitions, scope, classification, sectorization, and valuation.
  - Improvements suggested:
    - Scope: national accounts, CPI, and GFS.
    - Classification: monetary statistics.
    - Basis of recording: national accounts, GFS, and monetary statistics.
  - Balance of payments statistics require more substantial methodological improvements.
- Accuracy and reliability:
  - Source data and techniques generally sound for national accounts and monetary statistics.
  - Improvements needed for certain aspects of price indices and GFS.
  - Significant improvements required for balance of payments.
  - Revisions practices and studies need more rigor; several datasets lack proper public analyses of revisions; GFS revisions policy is not published and preliminary data are not clearly identified.
- Serviceability:
  - Statistics are generally relevant, consistent, and available with good frequency.
  - No formal user group to monitor BOP statistics relevance.
  - Timeliness concerns: quarterly GDP estimates, the PPI, and GFS.
- Accessibility:
  - Most datasets readily available to the public except the PPI (being redeveloped).
  - More detailed GFS financing data should be published.
  - Suitable metadata generally available except for GFS and national accounts (some details not published).
  - PPI is not included in the NSI catalog; assistance to users is otherwise adequate.

### Data dissemination and SDDS-specific observations
- Data dimension:
  - Bulgaria meets SDDS coverage requirements for all SDDS data categories except production index/indices.
  - All data categories meet or exceed SDDS prescribed periodicity.
  - Reserves Template data are not compiled or disseminated.
  - External debt: transition period ended March 31, 2003; data for quarter ending June 30, 2003 must be disseminated by end-September 2003.
- Access dimension:
  - Advance Release Calendars (ARCs) available for monetary statistics and most real sector datasets (except PPI).
  - ARCs need to be developed and disseminated for fiscal and external sectors.
- Integrity dimension:
  - DSBB pages show terms and conditions for official statistics production, internal government access, and whether ministerial commentary accompanies releases.
  - Information on revisions and advance notice of major methodological changes usually disseminated, except for GFS.
- Quality dimension:
  - Bulgaria’s GDDS metadata provide information corresponding to SDDS quality dimensions, though some metadata inaccuracies exist (notably NSI).

### Dataset-specific quality summary (high-level)
- National accounts:
  - Generally methodologically sound and consistent; timeliness and certain scope/basis of recording improvements recommended.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI):
  - Generally follows international guidelines; some source and index construction improvements recommended.
- Producer Price Index (PPI):
  - Not in SDDS time-series format; redevelopment underway; timeliness shortfalls noted.
- Government Finance Statistics (GFS):
  - Generally follows international guidelines but needs improved scope, publication of revisions policy, clearer identification of preliminary data, and more detailed financing data dissemination.
- Monetary statistics:
  - Generally sound; classification improvements suggested.
- Balance of Payments (BOP):
  - Significant methodological and data-source improvements required; lack of formal user oversight; timeliness and dissemination improvements needed.

### Staff’s overarching recommendations (summary themes)
- Prioritize compilation and dissemination of the Reserves Template and central government fiscal and external sector ARCs.
- Improve timeliness for quarterly GDP, PPI, and GFS; consider SDDS timeliness flexibility options where appropriate (regular for PPI, special for national accounts contingent on production index compliance).
- Correct and update GDDS/DSBB metadata (notably NSI metadata).
- Strengthen resources for balance of payments, national accounts, and price statistics to meet EU-guideline implementation requirements.
- Enhance methodological coverage and basis-of-recording practices for national accounts, GFS, and monetary statistics.
- Undertake substantial improvements to balance of payments methodology and data sources; establish formal user engagement for BOP relevance.
- Publish GFS revisions policy, clearly identify preliminary GFS data, and provide public analyses of revisions across datasets.
- Redevelop and publish the PPI with proper cataloging in NSI publications and online.

*Source: IMF mission report — Executive Summary of ROSC data module for Bulgaria, mission January 15–30, 2003.*

### 9.      Interest in assessing the quality of data derives from the objectives of complementing the

### _cr03393 - 9.      Interest in assessing the quality of data derives from the objectives of complementing the

### Overview
- Objective: complement the SDDS with consideration of the quality of disseminated data and focus on data underpinning surveillance of countries’ economic policies.
- Tool developed: Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) comprising a generic framework and dataset-specific frameworks covering five dimensions of data quality—integration of: integrity, methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility—and a set of prerequisites.
- Assessment scope: six macroeconomic datasets—national accounts, consumer price index (CPI), PPI, government finance, monetary, and balance of payments—assessed using dataset-specific DQAF; results presented following the DQAF structure and summarized qualitatively using a four-part scale (Tables 1–6).

### Context and recent developments
- Transition history:
  - Bulgaria’s transition to a market economy during the first half of the 1990s featured sporadic and often inconsistent structural reforms and stop-and-go stabilization efforts.
  - Deep financial crises and economic collapse in 1996–97 led to the adoption of a currency board arrangement in July 1997, a sweeping restructuring program, and significant improvements in fiscal and monetary statistics.
- Current status and plans:
  - Aided by ongoing stabilization programs, macroeconomic indicators are currently relatively stable.
  - Bulgaria expressed interest to participate in the SDDS at an early date.
  - On current plans, Bulgaria is expected to join the European Union (EU) by 2007.
  - Bulgaria completed a medium-term plan for improvement of statistics during 2003–2006 with the EU.
- Reference: Information on data quality available on the IMF “Data Quality Reference Site” (http://dsbb.imf.org/dqrsindex.htm).

### Prerequisites of quality
- Institutional responsibilities:
  - NSI is the main government producer of statistics (national accounts, CPI, PPI, among others) as stipulated in the Law on Statistics published in the Official Gazette, No. 57 of June 25, 1999 amended in No. 42 of April 27, 2001.
  - MOF authority for fiscal statistics supported by the Organic Budget Law (1996) and the State Debt Law (2002).
  - BNB compiles balance of payments, IIP, external debt, and monetary statistics with mandates from Law on BNB and Law on Statistics.
- Resources and constraints:
  - NSI: lack of office space, financial resources, high turnover of staff; insufficient status within government to offer competitive remuneration (NSI staff currently classified as category 3 in the Bulgarian civil structure, while line ministry staff are more highly remunerated in category 2); government moving NSI out of existing offices without providing suitable accommodation.
  - MOF: resources adequate for current compilation needs; additional resources would speed implementation of developments needed for EU reporting and migration to GFSM 2001.
  - BNB: resources adequate for compiling monetary statistics but insufficient to maintain BOP compilation programs.
- Quality awareness and oversight:
  - NSI maintains a high sense of quality awareness, has a separate division on quality issues, multiple oversight bodies, and active EU participation.
  - MOF quality awareness is adequate at all levels; NAO audits fiscal statistics quarterly.
  - BNB promotes quality awareness; scope for further improvement for BOP.

### Integrity
- NSI:
  - High degree of professionalism; independence supported by the Law on Statistics.
  - Statistics compiled impartially by professional, trained staff; decisions based on statistical considerations and international recommendations.
  - Proactive communication (monthly press conferences); reacts to public misinterpretation.
  - Transparency promoted via availability of NSI terms and conditions, clear identification of products, and advance notice of methodology changes.
  - Issue: pre-release access is given to senior government officials, contrary to GDDS metadata.
  - Ethical guidelines clearly documented and well known.
- MOF:
  - Professionalism exhibited in compilation of fiscal statistics.
  - Transparency: MOF responsibility clearly identified; NAO audits quarterly.
  - Ethical standards enforced by Law for the Civil Servant, Law on Access to Public Information, and Law on Protection of Classified Information.
- BNB:
  - Strongly encourages professionalism; source choices dictated by analytical considerations to meet international standards.
  - Terms and conditions for data collection, processing, and dissemination available to the public.
  - No government access to monetary statistics prior to general dissemination; BOP statistics are released to the government one day before public dissemination and this practice is publicized.
  - Staff duties, responsibilities, and ethical standards clearly communicated.

### Methodological soundness
- National accounts:
  - Broadly meet concepts and definitions of the European System of Accounts, 1995 (ESA 95).
  - Additional work needed to fully align with ESA 95 scope; financial accounts for each sector under development.
  - Classifications/sectorization in accordance with international standards.
  - Basis for recording issue: government output and final consumption recorded on a cash, rather than accrual, basis.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI):
  - Generally follows ESA 95 concepts and basis for recording.
  - Scope relates to market purchases by resident households; housing is not included.
  - Classification follows COICOP.
- Producer Price Index (PPI):
  - Conforms to international standards for concepts, definitions, and basis for recording of product prices and weights.
  - Scope: domestic sales of core mining, manufacturing, electricity, gas, and water industries by resident market enterprises.
  - Classification based on NACE Rev. 1, Classification of Products by Activities, and PRODCOM.
  - Weights and prices recorded at basic prices on an accruals basis.
- Government finance statistics:
  - Uses concepts and definitions of A Manual on Government Finance Statistics, 1986 (GFSM 1986); steps initiated to implement EU Deficit and Debt requirements, positioning for migration to GFSM 2001.
  - Assessment based on GFSM 1986 and national methodology.
  - Scope: entire general government except for debt data issues.
  - Issues: central government debt misclassifies IMF purchases as external rather than domestic debt; local government debt compilation began in 2003 (negligible share); valuation methods of domestic and external debt inconsistent; fiscal data recorded on a cash basis (consistent with GFSM 1986); no data available on arrears.
- Monetary statistics:
  - Concepts and definitions conform with Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM); progressive adoption of ECB framework.
  - Overall structure, scope, classification principles, and basis for recording consistent with MFSM except:
    - Financial derivatives positions not included.
    - Several “other” items (notably ODCs’ foreign liabilities) not disaggregated by financial instrument.
    - Treatment within the central bank survey of certain small IMF account components deviates from recommended guidelines.
    - Gold and nonfinancial assets not valued at market prices.
- Balance of payments (BOP):
  - Concepts and definitions conform to BPM5 except:
    - Residents’ foreign currency accounts with resident banks incorrectly included in BOP statistics.
    - Other source data do not uniformly apply standard residency criteria.
  - Scope: in principle covers all resident/non-resident transactions but data insufficiently cover shuttle trade and financial assets.
  - Classification generally follows BPM5.
  - Basis for recording: most data collected on a cash basis rather than accruals; market prices not always available.

### Accuracy and reliability
- National accounts:
  - Significant improvements to source data via a more comprehensive and reliable business register.
  - Informal activity estimates refined.
  - Source data generally timely.
  - Statistical techniques generally follow best international practice.
  - Assessment, validation, and revision studies guide improvements.
- CPI:
  - Weights and prices from comprehensive surveys; Household Budget Survey is continuous, random sample, with monthly results.
  - Business register not sufficiently up-to-date for retail outlet sampling; judgmental sampling used.
  - Statistical techniques generally sound; quality adjustment techniques need wider application.
  - Assessment, validation, and revision studies approach is sound.
- PPI:
  - Redevelopment program underway to introduce transaction pricing and rebase to year 2000.
  - Source data from comprehensive collection programs.
  - Pending 2003 transaction pricing survey, about 17 percent of industrial sales still represented via unit value measurement.
  - Statistical techniques generally sound; weights over seven years old and being updated.
  - Scope to improve product quality adjustment techniques.
  - Assessment and validation follow international standards.
  - Revision studies not routinely undertaken because revisions are rare and insignificant.
- Government finance statistics:
  - Source data timely and complete but reported on a cumulative rather than discrete monthly basis, preventing revisions to months other than the latest reported month.
  - Statistical techniques, assessment, and validation meet international standards.
  - Quarterly data audited by NAO.
  - Revision studies not conducted; corrections during compilation not systematic or thoroughly documented.
- Monetary statistics:
  - Source data are detailed balance sheet records, timely, and ample.
  - Internal constraints satisfied by double-entry bookkeeping.
  - Source data not subject to statistical adjustment.
  - Assessment and validation of source and intermediate results are robust.
  - Revision studies of methodological changes carried out for internal discussions.
- Balance of payments:
  - Source data from ITRS and surveys are not comprehensive, timely, or representative.
  - Merchandise trade source data prone to errors and not timely, causing frequent and substantial BOP revisions.
  - Data entry is error-prone; c.i.f./f.o.b. factor for trade data not reviewed since 1994.
  - No satisfactory assessment and validation of source data to inform compilation; statistical discrepancies rarely investigated.
  - Revision studies made when major methodological changes occur but do not inform the statistical process.

### Serviceability
- National accounts:
  - Relevance ensured through meetings with user groups and surveys; timeliness and periodicity meet SDDS requirements except for fourth quarter timeliness.
  - Consistent ESA 95 time series available from 1991.
  - National accounts fully consistent with balance of payments and general government data.
  - Preliminary data and revisions identified in publications, but analyses of revisions are not published.
- CPI and PPI:
  - Relevance maintained via meetings with users.
  - Indices consistent internally and over time.
  - Both meet SDDS periodicity; CPI exceeds SDDS timeliness requirement; PPI does not meet SDDS timeliness standard.
  - Revisions policy and practice known to users.
- Government finance statistics:
  - Relevant to users; periodicity meets SDDS requirements.
  - Publication of central and general government operations data on the web began in January 2003; limited experience meeting SDDS timeliness using this medium.
  - Consistency in time series hampered by scope changes due to structural reforms, particularly privatizations; institutional tables provided on the web to assist comparability over time.
  - Revision policy and practice not publicly disseminated; preliminary and revised data not clearly indicated in publications; no formal revision studies.

*Source: Detailed assessment material contained in the provided content unit.*

### 33.      The relevance of monetary statistics in meeting users’ needs is monitored based on the

### 33.      The relevance of monetary statistics in meeting users’ needs is monitored based on the

### Timeliness, periodicity, consistency, and revisions
- Timeliness and periodicity meet and exceed the SDDS guidelines.
- Monetary statistics show consistency within the dataset, except for an asymmetry in the BNB’s claims on banks which include claims on non-operating banks that are outside the coverage of the ODC sector (the ODC sectoral coverage, however, conforms with the ECB’s guidelines).
- Monetary statistics are largely consistent with the corresponding positions in the fiscal and BOP data.
- Revisions and preliminary data are clearly identified.
- Revisions studies, arising from methodological changes when these occur, are not published.
- Balance of payments: there is no formal user advisory group to monitor relevance of existing BOP statistics; timeliness and periodicity meet SDDS requirements; consistent time series are available from 1997 onwards; revisions are monitored and assessed on an ongoing basis; national publications describe the revisions policy.

### Accessibility and user assistance
- Accessibility concerns availability of data and metadata, and adequacy of user assistance.
- National accounts:
  - Readily accessible; publications present statistics clearly with charts and tables.
  - Many publications contain metadata.
  - The comprehensive description of the annual current price GDP figures, produced for Eurostat, has not yet been published.
  - Much statistical information, including extensive detail, is published in Bulgarian on the NSI website.
  - The NSI’s means of dissemination and assistance to users fully meet requirements.
- Price indices:
  - Metadata for CPI and PPI are accessible in hard copy and electronic form.
  - CPI: release is simultaneous to all users, announced at a press conference, and clearly presented in various formats.
  - PPI: publication was discontinued in 2001 pending introduction of new methodology (data available on request); planned to recommence publication in March 2003 as the new methodology has been largely implemented.
  - Assistance to users available for both indices; PPI not currently listed in the catalog of publications.
- Government finance statistics:
  - Data accessibility for users is adequate and on the web, although details on financing of government operations and expenditures by function are not disseminated.
  - Data format generally follows international standards and are disseminated simultaneously to all users.
  - Metadata accessibility is adequate; ARCs and detailed documentation on concepts, sources, and methods have not yet been prepared or disseminated.
  - MOF staff provide ample assistance to users; contact persons and subscription information for the monthly budget bulletin became available on the web in January 2003.
- Monetary statistics (BNB):
  - Readily accessible and presented in clear format; disseminated in condensed and detailed formats in weekly and monthly bulletins and available on the BNB website.
  - Statistics are made available on a pre-announced schedule and simultaneously to all users.
  - Publications include comprehensive general and specific notes concerning sources and methods in hard copy and online.
  - Assistance provided via direct contacts with the BNB via e-mail and telephone numbers on the web; a catalog of publications, documents, and services is available on the BNB website.
- Balance of payments:
  - Accessibility achieved through dissemination in hard copy and electronically, through press releases.
  - In January 2003, the BNB decided to start releasing BOP statistics simultaneously to all users, subject to a one-day pre-release to government.
  - Metadata and methodologies available via the BNB website and the IMF’s DSBB.
  - Sources and additional methodological detail published in the BNB Monthly Bulletin.
  - Assistance provided through the contact person listed on the website; publications list the BNB Press Office as public contact directing inquiries to specialists.
  - A full list of publications is on the BNB website.

### Staff’s recommendations — cross-cutting and sectoral (priorities preserved)
- Cross-cutting (High priority)
  - Take remaining steps to support SDDS subscription, including development and dissemination of a National Summary Data Page for SDDS data categories and posting ARCs on disseminating agencies’ websites.
  - Compile and disseminate the Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity when available.
  - Disseminate production index data in reference to a fixed base.
  - Provide the NSI with appropriate office accommodation; pursue application to reclassify the NSI to a higher status (to a category 2 institution) to make staff salaries more competitive; allocate additional staff within NSI headquarters for compilation and development of national accounts, CPI and PPI; and appropriately increase staff in the BOP division of the BNB.
- Cross-cutting (Other key recommendations)
  - Amend the GDDS metadata to accurately reflect internal government pre-release access arrangements for key data (e.g., national accounts and CPI).
  - Clearly indicate preliminary and revised data to all users. Undertake more systematic revision practices and studies, and make results available to users.

- National Accounts (High priority)
  - Advance the timeliness of the fourth quarter GDP estimates to 90 days.
  - Bring scope of the national accounts fully into line with ESA 95 recommendations and continue to develop financial accounts.
- National Accounts (Other key)
  - Publish the ESA 95 metadata produced for Eurostat.

- Consumer Price Index (High priority)
  - Extend application of quality adjustment techniques to a wider range of product prices.
  - Investigate ways to maintain more up-to-date retail industry information on the business register to support CPI outlet sampling.
- Consumer Price Index (Other key)
  - Undertake extensive consultation with major users on including housing in the national CPI.

- Producer Price Index (High priority)
  - Advance timeliness of the PPI to one month.
  - Re-commence publication of the PPI and update the ARC and the catalog of publications.
  - Complete implementation of transaction pricing methodology into the PPI as soon as possible.
  - Finalize index rebasing program to convert to a year 2000 weighting and reference base.
- Producer Price Index (Other key)
  - Increase rigor and extent of quality adjustment techniques applied to product prices.

- Government Finance Statistics (High priority)
  - Improve fiscal data to meet fiscal reporting requirements for EU accession: implement new chart of accounts (with codes linking to EU and GFSM 2001 frameworks), the Financial Information Management System, and detailed metadata.
  - Disseminate information (stocks and flows) on arrears of central and local governments.
  - Collect separate (discrete) monthly data from reporting units (rather than cumulative reports); compile and disseminate discrete monthly and quarterly data to create useful time series.
  - MOF website should be updated monthly.
- Government Finance Statistics (Other key)
  - Publish data on local government debt statistics. Reclassify IMF purchases in government debt statistics. Value domestic and external debt consistently.
  - Disseminate more fiscal information on financing of government operations, specifically aggregates on bank and nonbank domestic financing and breakdowns of external financing into bonds and loans.

- Monetary Statistics (High priority)
  - Disaggregate all foreign liabilities of commercial banks by financial instrument; for back dates as far as possible, include banks’ positions on financial derivatives and classify them by sector of counterparty; rationalize treatment of certain small components of the IMF accounts in the central bank survey.
  - Value gold and nonfinancial assets at market prices.
  - Separately identify central bank’s claims on nonoperating banks that are excluded from the coverage of ODC survey.

- Balance of Payments Statistics (High priority)
  - Bring reporting instructions into line with BPM5 guidelines to comply with critical definitions (such as residency) and to allow proper coverage of data, such as adequate reporting of financial assets.
  - Clarify instructions on the accrual principle and prescribe more systematic valuation at market prices, for example in compiling foreign direct investment and reporting financial assets.
  - Improve comprehensiveness and timeliness of all source data; merchandise trade, ITRS and surveys.
- Balance of Payments (Other key)
  - Foster interagency cooperation to improve timeliness of merchandise trade data supply.
  - Following the outcome on the proposed revision to the Foreign Exchange Law, the BNB should draw up statistical reporting procedures to address deficiencies in source data.

### Key assessment results (selected observations from Table 2)
- Consistent time series available from 1997 onwards (BOP).
- PPI publication discontinued in 2001; planned recommencement in March 2003.
- MOF contact and subscription information became available on the web in January 2003.
- Targets and reference periods cited explicitly: fourth quarter GDP timeliness target is 90 days; PPI rebasing target to year 2000 weighting and reference base.

*Source: IMF staff report content as provided in the supplied PDF excerpt.*

### 5.3   Assistance to users

### _cr03393 - 5.3   Assistance to users

### Overview and institutional responses
- IMF staff mission in Sofia during January 15–30, 2003 produced a revised draft ROSC data module with recommendations to improve adherence to international statistical standards.
- Responses prepared by: National Statistical Institute (NSI), Bulgarian National Bank (BNB), and Ministry of Finance (MoF).
- Document dated: December 12, 2003.

### Cross-cutting recommendations (A)
- SDDS subscription and dissemination:
  - Country secured SDDS subscription on December 1, 2003.
  - MoF develops the GFS and government debt National Summary Data Page (NSDP) and the Advance Release Calendar (ARC); data posted on BNB and MoF websites.
  - NSI included monthly-disseminated PPI in the ARC since beginning of 2003; industrial production index time series referenced to 2000 disseminated as of January 2003.
  - NSDP and ARC for December 2003 and first four months of 2004 posted on BNB website; national metadata posted on IMF’s DSBB website.
  - BNB compiled the Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity and completed NSDP and Template by December 1, 2003.
- Timeliness improvements:
  - Beginning in 2004, fourth quarter GDP data will be disseminated within 80 days after the reference period.
  - Timelines for external trade data dissemination to be reduced from eight to six weeks.
- Staffing and accommodation:
  - Decision CM No. 450 (2002) required NSI to vacate building at No. 10, 6th September Street; final outcome: NSI lost 2,100 square meters and received 460 square meters for rent in two buildings; possibility to add stories to NSI building at No. 2, P. Volov Street under study.
  - Reclassification of NSI from category A3 to A2: Action plan under CM Decision No. 149 (March 12, 2003) envisaged change; CM Decree No 279/25.11.03 adopted November 13, 2003 and to enter into force on January 1, 2004.
  - BNB increased BOP division staff from eight to twelve persons effective August 1, 2003.
- Data access and integrity:
  - “Rules for Dissemination of Statistical Information Products and Services”: ministers receive data one hour before press conferences under strict embargo; reflected in GDDS Table C and posted on NSI website.
- Revisions and labeling:
  - GFS 2002 preliminary data for consolidated fiscal budget and consolidated central government (GFSM 1986 concept) indicated on website.
  - NSI indicates preliminary data and policies on NA revisions in publications; CPI preliminary January data clearly indicated; major CPI revision for 1995–2000 analyzed and presented to Methodological Council.

### National Accounts (B)
- Timeliness:
  - NSI undertaking measures to reduce fourth quarter GDP estimate deadline; fourth quarter of 2003 to be compiled experimentally within 80 days using monthly business indicators and other data.
- Standards and scope:
  - NSI participating in Eurostat pilot projects to achieve compliance with ESA 95.
  - Cooperation with Norway: implementation of software SNA-NT for SUT organization and valuation at constant prices.
- Financial accounts:
  - Elaboration of financial accounts is a priority; analytical tables and experimental accounts prepared; work to continue under National PHARE 2000 subcomponent "Financial accounts".
  - A special unit to be established within National Economic Accounts and Balances Department.
- Metadata:
  - First version of GDP and GNI metadata according to ESA 95 prepared for reporting year 1998; fuller inventory planned under Phare 2002 Multibeneficiary Program starting in 2004; publication planned in English and Bulgarian.

### Consumer Price Index (C)
- Quality adjustment and coverage:
  - Extension of quality adjustment techniques to a wider range of products is ongoing.
- Outlet sampling:
  - Business register began to include local-unit level information in 2003, which is higher than outlet level and currently cannot support CPI outlet sampling.
- Housing in CPI:
  - CPI weights follow Council Regulation (EC) No 1687/98; imputed rents and dwelling purchases not covered.
  - NSI to consult major users on desirability and feasibility of including dwelling purchases; current position: market for new dwellings not well developed and new dwellings considered too expensive for ordinary consumers.

### Producer Price Index (D)
- Timeliness and publication:
  - Program launched to shorten PPI delay from 40 to 30 days after reference month.
  - NSI resumed publication of PPI for January 2003; PPIs presented at monthly press conferences in three modes: indices at 2000 base year; indices compared with previous month (that month as base); indices compared with same month previous year (that month as base).
  - Historical monthly series by sections and two-digit NACE from January 2000 to December 2002 posted on NSI website.
  - PPIs included in ARC and NSI catalog; monthly PPIs published in “Statistical Journal” since volume 3, March 2003.
- Methodology upgrades:
  - Program underway to implement transaction pricing methodology; new survey covers economic activity groups representing about 90 percent of sales of industrial enterprises on domestic market; implementation with final panels and retrospective revisions to be finalized by June 2004.
  - Rebasing program finalized in March 2003; since January 2003 PPIs calculated using 2000 as base year; historical data back to 1995 recalculated.
- Quality adjustment:
  - Quality correction techniques discussed during IMF experts’ mission in February 2003 and applied in practice; accuracy of calculated PPIs approved.

### Government Finance Statistics (E)
- EU accession and methodological alignment:
  - Since 2002, ESA 95 and GFSM 2001 concept of deficit calculation interpreted and applied as national methodology.
  - New chart of accounts provides accrual-basis information for 2001 and 2002 for budget enterprises; internal consolidation underway.
  - MoF considering changing budget framework for 2005 to be based on Statement on Sources and Uses of Cash per GFSM 2001.
  - MoF plans to develop procedure for central budget operations recording on a modified accrual basis; working groups formed with Tax Administration, Customs Agency, Agency for Privatization, National Social Security Institute, and Ministry of Economy.
- Arrears:
  - Local and central government units instructed to compile accounting data on arrears; methodological guidelines provided; data posted to post-balance-sheet accounts and analyzed.
  - MoF to disseminate arrears data on its website in the near future; data to be processed on a quarterly basis.
  - MoF collects monthly information on arrears mainly by state hospitals and municipalities; plans to disseminate arrears of state hospitals and municipalities for activities determined to be state responsibility.
- Monthly reporting and dissemination:
  - MoF to introduce separate (discrete) monthly data collection after completion of Financial Management Information System (FMIS); FMIS will provide cash and accrual basis data and identify revisions.
  - MoF published December 2002 monthly fiscal data at end of January 2003 and updates monthly information within a month after the reference period.
- Government debt and valuation:
  - Government Debt Directorate started local government debt data collection since January 2003; data as of December 31, 2002 compiled.
  - GDD started presenting local government debt in March 2003 "Government Debt Management" Bulletin.
  - GDD will consider reclassifying IMF purchases in government debt statistics; such reclassification would change historical presentation since 1991 and may create inconsistency with previous publications but methodological explanations will be added.
  - Until December 31, 2002 domestic debt recorded at face value less discounts plus premia, foreign debt at full face value; from January 1, 2003 foreign debt to be reported on cash-received basis consistent with domestic debt.
- Financing breakdowns:
  - Beginning in 2003 MoF disseminating monthly data on bank and nonbank domestic financing and breakdowns of external financing into bonds and loans for consolidated fiscal budget (general government).

### Monetary Statistics (F)
- Reporting and instruments:
  - Banks’ positions on financial derivatives not recorded on-balance before January 2003; from January 2003 recorded on-balance and data collection started without sectoral breakdown; breakdown by sector to be implemented from beginning of 2004 with new input data system.
  - After statistical adjustment, time series starting from January 2003 will be published in July 2004.
  - Disaggregation of foreign liabilities of commercial banks: data check found incorrect recording of relations with foreign branch; time series revised and published in July 2003.
  - Treatment of IMF accounts rationalized; time series revised since 1995 and new presentation from January 2003 onward.
- Valuation:
  - Monetary gold valuation: since July 1997 BNB values monetary gold conservatively at 500 Bulgarian leva per troy ounce or at market price if lower for compiling foreign exchange reserves.
  - Since February 2003 BNB calculates monetary gold at market prices and shows it as a memorandum item in monetary statistics; a consistent time series on monetary gold at market prices since December 1995 developed for public use.
  - Valuation of nonfinancial assets: Bulgarian banks value nonfinancial assets at acquisition cost; international and Bulgarian accounting standards allow acquisition cost or market price; staff recommendation to value at market prices could not be fulfilled given local practice.
- Nonoperating banks:
  - Positions “credits” and “other” in “claims on commercial banks” after December 1997 include only claims on nonoperating banks; therefore no separate line necessary; explained in footnote starting April 2003 publication.

### Balance of Payments Statistics (G)
- Legal and reporting framework:
  - Foreign Exchange Law amended July 2003 to improve definitions of residency, FDI, and provide stronger legal basis for BOP data collection including financial assets.
  - BNB to draw up statistical reporting procedures in line with changes to Foreign Exchange Law; new regulation on BOP statistics approved by BNB Management Board; new reporting forms to be used from beginning of 2004.
- Source data and coverage:
  - Agreement with Customs Office: merchandise trade data regularly used in BOP compilation since March 2003; source meets SDDS timeliness, accuracy, and reliability requirements.
  - Work on improvement of ITRS and further use of direct reporting through surveys started in line with legal amendments and increased BOP staff.
- Interagency cooperation:
  - Timeliness of merchandise trade data supply to BNB improved via direct data flow from Customs Office based on bilateral agreement; BNB continues cooperation with NSI.

*Response by the Authorities — December 12, 2003.*

### Appendix II), was used to prepare the summary assessment of data quality elements, based

### _cr03393 - Appendix II), was used to prepare the summary assessment of data quality elements, based

### I. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS — Prerequisites of quality

- Legal and institutional framework
  - The Law on Statistics, published in the Official Gazette No. 57 of June 25, 1999 and amended in No. 42 of April 27, 2001, governs the activities of the National Statistical Institute (NSI) and other government statistical bodies.
  - Chapter 3 of the Law establishes the National Statistical Council, attached to the NSI president, responsible for the annual National Program for Statistical Surveys (NPSS); the NPSS is approved by the Council of Ministers.
  - The Bulgarian Annual Statistical Plan incorporates the NPSS and specifies, for each survey: purpose, contents, coverage, methods, information sources, forms of data collection, responsible body(ies), respondent obligations, and budget.
  - The NSI is the sole official producer of national accounts data; national accounts are prepared in the National Accounts Division (NAD) of the NSI’s National Economic Accounts and Balances Directorate in cooperation with other divisions.
  - The Basic Statistics Directorate organizes surveys, aggregates submitted data, produces final results (by activities) after grossing up and adjustments for nonresponse.

- Data sharing and coordination
  - NSI coordinates all national statistical activity in pursuance of the Law on Statistics.
  - Coordination tools listed in the NPSS and Law on Statistics include:
    - NPSS statistical infrastructure—classifications, registers, definitions, indicators;
    - Councils: National Statistical Council, High Statistical Council, Methodological Council, Editing Council, Methodology and Training Council, IT Council;
    - Agreements, protocols, rules, methods, and ordinance with bodies of statistics and other institutions.
  - The NPSS covers regularly conducted surveys of established public significance, other statistical surveys for the relevant year, and particular surveys related to international obligations; exhaustive censuses are conducted under specific laws.
  - The NPSS is published in the Official Gazette and funds required are provided from the State Budget; no information available for coordination or efficiency monitoring of these funds.
  - Annual operating plans align with the NPSS and contain detailed task allocations and data exchange aspects.
  - Councils and membership:
    - High Statistical Council: 35 members; held two meetings in 2002 (discussed NPSS for 2003, medium-term program, updating statistical classifications).
    - National Statistical Council: 18 members; drafts and implements NPSS, adopts long-term strategy, approves list of structural units as bodies of statistics.
    - Methodological Council: 15 members (five from NSI); responsible for implementing statistical principles—impartiality, reliability, effectiveness, adequacy, publicity, confidentiality—and for methodologies, planning, dissemination.
  - Agreements exist for data exchange between NSI and main ministries/state institutions; terms are consistent with the advance release calendar (ARC).

- Confidentiality and legal protection
  - Article 25 of the Law on Statistics: individual and personal data may be used only for statistical purposes.
  - Article 22: respondents must be informed of rights and obligations, including data confidentiality guarantee.
  - Article 26 prohibits making public or providing: (1) individual statistical data; (2) statistical data that may be combined to identify an individual; (3) statistical data summarizing fewer than three units or where one unit is more than 85 percent of the total volume.
  - Article 55: noncompliance liable to a fine of up to 6,000 Bulgarian leva or BGN (about US$2,000).
  - One accidental breach occurred and disciplinary action was taken; computers/databases are password controlled; destruction of survey forms is tightly controlled and undertaken by specially licensed contractors.

- Mandatory reporting and enforcement
  - Article 20: all organizations and individuals must submit data covered by the NPSS.
  - Article 52: penalty of up to 6,000 leva (about US$2,000) for noncompliance (including misreporting); refusal may lead to prosecution and publicization.

### I. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS — Resources

- Staffing and organization
  - At end-2002 the NSI had 1,689 staff: 1,609 had permanent contracts and 89 had temporary contracts. (The number of permanent staff decreased by 190 compared with 2001.)
  - NAD has 21 people, organized in three sectors; national accounts division units are:
    1. GDP calculations from production and expenditure approaches—quarterly and annually;
    2. Institutional sector accounts, GDP from income approach, production accounts for general government;
    3. Supply and use tables, and regional GDP estimates.
  - Workload pressures:
    - Increased workload due to Bulgaria’s application to join the EU and obligations from Eurostat pilot projects and Eurostat data transmission program deadlines.
    - High staff turnover: since 1997 two-thirds of the experienced staff have left and been replaced by new entrants.
  - Low pay affects recruitment and retention; NSI classified as category 3 (not category 2) limiting pay improvements. A proposal to change status was made end-2001 and again end-2002; MOF and Council of Ministers cited insufficient funds.
  - Office accommodation: Council of Ministers decided in 2002 that NSI vacate current Sofia office; as of January 2003 some staff still in old office while alternative accommodation sought, impacting morale.
  - Computing for national accounts currently adequate and supported under the PHARE program.

- Financial resources and efficiency measures
  - Central budget funds assigned annually based on the State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria; NSI faces limited operational funds, difficulty covering survey expenditures and overheads (electricity, telecommunications, postal, external services).
  - Tight expenditure controls required to run NPSS surveys and disseminate statistics.
  - Performance indicators system developed in 2000 following PARIS 21 Task Team philosophy, covering seven dimensions:
    - effectiveness and usefulness;
    - resources—staff, budget, infrastructure;
    - transparency;
    - timeliness;
    - accuracy and relevance;
    - respondent burden;
    - international cooperation.
  - Indicators expressed as time series to observe trends; process ongoing.

### I. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS — Quality awareness

- Quality frameworks and standards
  - NSI coordinates state statistical activity (Article 7(1) of the Law) and ensures methodological uniformity.
  - NSI adopted quality dimensions per Eurostat definition; quality appears in Strategy for Development of Statistics and Priority Tasks 2001−2005.
  - GDDS framework used to develop statistics (coverage, periodicity, timeliness, quality, integrity, public access); national metadata for GDDS are revised regularly and included in IMF DSBB.
  - Work towards adoption of IMF SDDS is continuing.

- Quality monitoring and improvement activities
  - Since 2000 the Statistical Methods and Standards Division has been studying and elaborating statistical data quality issues.
  - Examples of quality focus:
    - Theme of quality prioritized in NPSS since 2000;
    - Quality assessment aligned with European Statistical System requirements;
    - Quality considerations involved in all production and dissemination stages; methodologies disseminated in NSI main publication (“2001 Bulgarian Statistical Yearbook”).
  - User surveys and research:
    - Periodic marketing research on user satisfaction;
    - Surveys on respondent burden;
    - Surveys on businesses’ attitudes toward confidentiality.
  - Adoption of European Statistical System Quality Declaration principles; quality reports to be applied gradually in line with EC and Council Regulations.
  - National accounts: particular emphasis on reliability, exhaustiveness, and correspondence with ESA 95 and related EU regulations; Eurostat pilot projects used to identify shortcomings in techniques, methods, sources, and accounts (e.g., exhaustiveness of GDP estimates; assessment of sources and methods for GDP compilation).
  - Eurostat to carry out second phase of exhaustiveness pilot project in 2003 under PHARE 2000.

- Quality trade-offs and planning
  - NSI holds regular meetings with users to consider trade-offs between timeliness and quality of national accounts.
  - NPSS process balances early supply of statistics with ensuring data quality.
  - Eurostat pressure to improve timeliness acknowledged; timeliness improvements pursued only when achievable by more efficient procedures rather than by reducing quality.

### I. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS — Integrity and professionalism

- Impartiality and autonomy
  - The 1999 Law on Statistics establishes NSI autonomy and requires compliance with principles of the rule of law, impartiality, reliability, efficiency, adequacy, publicity, and confidentiality.
  - National Statistical Council and dissemination rules support objective principles in collection, processing, and dissemination.
  - NSI adheres to international methodological recommendations.

- Source and technique selection
  - Choices of data sources and statistical techniques are made solely on professional statistical considerations and in line with international standards; data sources are based on household and business surveys; no evidence of outside interference.

- Communication and correction of misuse
  - Key data are presented and explained at regular monthly press conferences to prevent misunderstandings or misinterpretations.
  - NSI responds publicly in cases of incorrect interpretation of data to provide correct interpretation.

*Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2003/_cr03393.pdf*

### 1.2       Transparency

### 1.2       Transparency

### 1.2.1 Terms and conditions for statistics collection, processing, and dissemination
- Users have full access to information about conditions under which statistical data are collected, processed, and disseminated, including release timetables and confidentiality of individual data.
- Information is contained in: the Law on Statistics, the rules for dissemination of statistical information, ARCs, and the catalog of NSI statistical publications.
- These products are reproduced on the NSI website and in printed and electronic publications.
- Fundamental principles, methodologies, classifications, nomenclatures, and mission statements are regularly released in the NSI publication Statistics Magazine (printed and electronic) and on the website.

### 1.2.2 Internal governmental access prior to release
- Under new dissemination rules, national accounts data are provided to relevant government ministers (under embargo conditions) for briefing purposes up to one hour prior to the embargo time.
- The new rule is contained only on the NSI website, in Bulgarian, and is not yet reflected on the IMF GDDS metadata.
- The NSI is taking immediate action to present the new rule in English on the website and to update the GDDS metadata.

### 1.2.3 Identification of statistical products
- The NSI is clearly identified on all printed and electronic products via the NSI logo and a box with publishing information and other insignia.
- For joint publications, inclusion of the partner organization's name and logo is obligatory; the source is stated in methodological notes and tables.
- Permission to reproduce NSI statistics requires that the NSI be acknowledged as the source.

### 1.2.4 Advance notice of methodological and source changes
- The NSI informs users about current status and all significant changes in methodology, sources, and data collection techniques for all surveys in the NPSS.
- In-depth information is provided to the academic community and practicing statisticians through Statistics Magazine and on the NSI website.

### Key transparency finding
- Public documentation and dissemination practices are robust, with the exception that a recent rule on pre-release internal access (up to one hour) is only published in Bulgarian and not yet updated in GDDS metadata.

### Source
*IMF staff report section 1.2 Transparency*

### 1.3       Ethical standards

### 1.3.1 Staff behavior guidelines
- Job descriptions list specific responsibilities and the laws staff must be familiar with: the Law on Statistics, the Law for the Civil Servant, the Law for the Administration, and the Code of Behavior of the Civil Servant.
- No special training course is provided to new staff on these laws.
- Before signing employment contracts, new staff are required to sign a declaration not to release individual data accessed during their work.

### Key ethical finding
- Legal and ethical obligations are embedded in job descriptions and enforced via a signed confidentiality declaration, but formal induction training on these laws is not provided.

### Source
*IMF staff report section 1.3 Ethical standards*

### 2. Methodological Soundness

### 2.1 Concepts and definitions
- From 1991 onwards, Bulgarian national accounts are broadly compiled according to the recommendations of the ESA 95, which is consistent with the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA).
- Data for the years 1980−90 were calculated using conversion tables (document F-20 developed by UNSO) to adjust Macro aggregates from the Material Product System to the System of National Accounts 1968.

### 2.2 Scope
- Most of the 1993 SNA (ESA 95) tables and accounts that the ISWGNA determined as the minimum requirement for implementation are compiled on a regular basis; the only exception is sectoral financial accounts, which are under development.
- Tables and accounts currently produced include:
  - annual value added and GDP at current and constant prices by activity;
  - annual expenditures of GDP at current and constant prices;
  - annual value added components at current prices by activity;
  - sequence of accounts for the total economy, and for each sector (up to the capital account) with an annual frequency;
  - annual rest of world accounts (up to net lending).
- Recommended tables and accounts compiled on a regular basis include:
  - quarterly value added and GDP at current and constant prices by activity;
  - quarterly expenditures of GDP at current and constant prices;
  - annual supply and use tables.
- Bulgaria elaborates regional GDP conforming to the NUTS2 and NUTS3 levels on a regular basis.
- Residency is established after six months, rather than the one year specified in the ESA 95; this variance is not considered to have a significant impact on the figures.
- The accounts cover the whole territory of Bulgaria, including embassies in other countries and free-trade zones.
- Production boundary covers most economic activities of resident units in line with ESA 95, including own-account R&D and fixed capital formation on own-account, and own-account production of goods and housing services by household producers.
- Estimates for illegal activities are not currently included, although a special study to derive figures for the narcotics trade was undertaken for 1997.
- Treatment of assets and valuables:
  - Tangible assets include productive agricultural goods, buildings, machinery and equipment, transport vehicles, and other instruments and equipment.
  - All defense-related assets are currently treated as assets, even those of a military nature that should be classified as current expenditure. This does not affect total GDP level because reclassification would reduce GFCF and increase general government final consumption by corresponding amounts.
  - Valuables are not currently treated as assets; amounts involved are likely small. A Eurostat pilot project on GFCF will investigate valuables, including examining existing practices and developing new estimates; a key unresolved issue is how to distinguish valuables from nonvaluables (for example using some threshold). This issue is also unlikely to affect total GDP because valuables purchased by households will be included in household final consumption.
- Intangible assets covered include owners’ rights (patents, licenses; know-how, trademarks), research and development, concessions, mineral exploration, computer software, and other intangible assets.
- Films, sound recordings, manuscripts, tapes, radio and TV programs, literary and artistic output, etc. are regarded as entertainment, literary, or artistic originals; originals produced and sold are recorded as GFCF, originals retained by the producer are usually valued based on costs of production.
- Quarterly figures for work-in-progress do not cover agriculture, consistent with many national accounts practices; this will be addressed by a Eurostat pilot project.

### 2.3 Classification/sectorization
- Classification and sectorization are in broad conformity with internationally recommended systems; ESA 95 is followed in classifying institutional units and transactions.
- Since 1996, production and generation of income accounts by activities are compiled according to the National Classification of Economic Activities, consistent with NACE, Rev. 1.
- Beginning in 2001, NACE, Rev. 1, PRODCOM are applied directly as national classifications.
- COICOP is used for household expenditures, the CPI, and the retail trade survey.
- COFOG has not yet been implemented but is planned for the medium term; the existing MOF classification of government functions is not significantly different from COFOG and provides necessary information for the individual/collective split of consumption expenditures.
- Foreign trade data are classified according to the 9-digit level of the National Custom Tariff based on the Combined Nomenclature.
- Capital formation is broken down into six categories according to the Pi6 level defined in the ESA 95.

### 2.4 Basis for recording

#### 2.4.1 Valuation at market prices
- Valuation rules follow ESA 95:
  - Market output valued at basic prices before taxes on products (import duties, excises, VAT, and tax on insurance premiums) and before subsidies on products are deducted.
  - Changes in inventories of finished goods and work-in-progress should, in principle, be valued at prices prevailing at time produced; in practice valued at prices at reporting time (beginning and end of period), so adjustments for holding gains are undertaken.
  - Intermediate consumption valued at purchaser’s prices and adjusted for holding gains.
  - Gross output for nonmarket producers derived from production costs: intermediate consumption + compensation of employees + consumption of fixed capital.
  - Final consumption of households, general government and NPISHs valued at purchaser prices.
  - GFCF valued at purchaser prices if bought; if produced for own consumption, recorded at basic prices (no difference from purchaser prices in such cases).
  - Owner-occupied housing valued at comparable rental values.
  - Imports and exports valued free on board.
- Household production for own final consumption:
  - Agricultural goods produced and consumed by households are valued at relevant selling prices.
  - Nonagricultural and nonfood industrial products produced by households for own use (clothing, furniture, etc.) are not included in gross output, in line with ESA 95 recommendations.

#### 2.4.2 Accrual recording
- In principle, accrual accounting is followed for all accounts; accounting law and standards oblige all units to record transactions on an accrual basis.
- Figures for general government are still recorded on a cash basis.
- The NAD adjusts figures for taxes on production onto an accruals basis using data from the tax authorities; similar adjustments are made for subsidies on production using financial reports of receiving enterprises.
- The MOF is planning to produce budget data on an accruals basis by the year 2005.

#### 2.4.3 Grossing/netting procedures
- Production figures are based on reported data from establishments, and transactions within the same enterprise are recorded on a gross basis.

### Key methodological findings
- National accounts broadly conform to ESA 95/1993 SNA with certain deviations: residency defined after six months; sectoral financial accounts under development; general government still on a cash basis; defense assets treated as assets; valuables not treated as assets; quarterly work-in-progress excludes agriculture.

*IMF staff report sections 1.2–2.4*

### 3.1       Source       data

### 3.1       Source       data

### Registers
- The Unified Register of Economic Units in Bulgaria (BULSTAT) is the common sample frame for all enterprise surveys and is organized in a decentralized way in the 28 Regional Statistical Offices.
- BULSTAT covers: all legal entities including foreign-owned ones, natural persons registered as sole proprietors, partnerships, budgetary units, and NPISHs.
- Identification characteristics in BULSTAT: main activity according to the 4-digit level of NACE, Rev. 1; name; address; legal status.
- BULSTAT contains three levels of units: the enterprise, any establishments with complete bookkeeping, and any local units (but only wages and salaries are observed for local units).
- Exclusions: professionals such as lawyers (exempted by a special law), street and market traders, and temporary and occasional workers.
- The Register Department of the NSI is responsible for maintaining BULSTAT; according to the Statistics Law, all units have to register with BULSTAT.
- A Statistical Register is derived from BULSTAT and contains: main activity, number of employees, turnover, and long-term tangible assets; it is used to remove dead units from the register.
- All units are included when newly created and removed when they report closure; there is no formal mechanism for reporting dead units.
- Larger businesses with double-entry bookkeeping must provide quarterly statistical reports to NSI; Regional Statistical Offices check non-reporting units for existence.
- Small unincorporated enterprises with single-entry bookkeeping are checked by the tax authorities.
- Special registers/procedures:
  - Legal entities controlled by the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of the Interior and similar institutions have special procedures.
  - Professionals (advocates, doctors, dentists, teachers, and artists) apply for a tax number and are registered in a special tax register.
  - Agricultural producers: special register built from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Register, the Social Insurance Register, and the last census on population, housing funds, and agricultural farms.
- Monthly checks with other registers (Social Insurance Register and VAT Register) are conducted.
- A one-off street by street census of all businesses was undertaken by regional offices in the year 2000, confirming register soundness.

### Statistical surveys (coverage, design, and use)
- Classification: statistical units (enterprises and establishments) are classified by principal activity even if they have secondary activities.
- Surveys use the Statistical Register; reports are collected from whole enterprises and establishments; questionnaires are specific to activity and bookkeeping type.
- Response: all units are obliged to respond under the Law on Statistics; public enterprises generally have a 100 percent response rate; response for private firms is lower and varies by activity. Basic Statistics Divisions make estimates for nonresponse based on other surveys.
- Main statistical surveys used for national accounts:
  - annual bookkeeping statements from all public and private enterprises with double-entry bookkeeping, with special annexes (revenues and expenditures; acquisition of tangible fixed assets; revenues from sales of construction activity; reports on retail and wholesale trade outlets; etc.);
  - less detailed annual statistical reports on revenues and expenditures from private firms with single-entry bookkeeping;
  - annual reports of insurance enterprises collected by NSI based on specific accounting standard of insurance undertakings; additional information from the yearbook on insurance businesses compiled by the Insurance Supervision Directorate in MOF;
  - annual reports of nonprofit institutions based on their specific accounting standard allowing output split between market and nonmarket activities;
  - annual reports of investment and pension funds (separate institutional units);
  - the PRODCOM survey: exhaustive annually for 10,000 enterprises in mining, manufacturing, electricity, gas, and water supply; information for about 3,000 different industrial products; monthly sample covers a quarter of the universe observing 950 products; PRODCOM Regulation requires publication within six months but currently available 10 months after reference year; monthly data published within 40 days;
  - agricultural balances with detailed supply and use in quantity and value terms by kind of production unit for state and co-operative agricultural farms, private farms, and households;
  - annual reports on labor statistics: average annual number of employees, wages and salaries, and working hours—split by economic activity and type of ownership for double-entry bookkeeping units;
  - Labor Force Survey (LFS): sample of 24,000 noninstitutional households; reference period one calendar week (the week before the survey); two-stage cluster sample of population aged 15 years and over; methodology per ILO recommendations;
  - material balances in quantity and value terms for about 200 commodity groups constituting intermediate consumption;
  - Household Budget Survey (HBS): continuous survey covering all households; two-stage scientific random sampling (selection of population census areas, then households); institutional households excluded; sample covers 3,000 households; all households participate for one year; sample is self-weighting; households that refuse are substituted by households with similar characteristics; special investigation undertaken to confirm substitution does not introduce bias; HBS collects monetary expenditure on food products, nonfoods, services, income from wages and salaries, social security benefits, households own production, etc.; since 1999, household expenditures classified according to COICOP.
- NSI sample surveys are used to control and correct exhaustive survey data and to cross-check statistical reports; they allow verification of private sector estimates.

### Main sources for annual and quarterly accounts (summary of assessments)
- Overall statement: Taken over the total of all activities, the coverage of the main sources should be considered to be good.
- Selected assessments from the Production Approach (annual accounts) by NACE Rev. 1 section (main sources and coverage assessment preserved verbatim where given):
  - Agriculture, hunting and forestry: Agricultural balances; Annual bookkeeping statement of enterprises with double entry bookkeeping; Report on revenues and expenditure of enterprises with single entry bookkeeping; Unincorporated households activities—agricultural balances, HBS. Assessment: Satisfactory
  - Fishing: Annual bookkeeping statement of enterprises with double entry bookkeeping; Report on revenues and expenditure of enterprises with single entry bookkeeping. Assessment: Good
  - Mining and quarrying: Annual bookkeeping statement of enterprises with double entry bookkeeping; Report on revenues and expenditure of enterprises with single entry bookkeeping. Assessment: Good
  - Manufacturing: Annual bookkeeping statement of enterprises with double entry bookkeeping; Report on revenues and expenditure of enterprises with single entry bookkeeping. Assessment: Good
  - Electricity, gas, and water supply: Annual bookkeeping statement of enterprises with double entry bookkeeping; Report on revenues and expenditure of enterprises with single entry bookkeeping. Assessment: Good
  - Construction: Annual bookkeeping statement of enterprises with double entry bookkeeping; Report on revenues and expenditure of enterprises with single entry bookkeeping. Assessment: Satisfactory
  - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles, and personal and household goods: Annual bookkeeping statement of enterprises with double entry bookkeeping—specialized annex for trade activities; Report on revenues and expenditure of enterprises with single entry bookkeeping. Assessment: Good/Satisfactory
  - Hotels and restaurants: Annual bookkeeping statement of enterprises with double entry bookkeeping; Report on revenues and expenditure of enterprises with single entry bookkeeping. Assessment: Satisfactory/Poor
  - Transport, storage, and communications: Annual bookkeeping statement of enterprises with double entry bookkeeping; Report on revenues and expenditure of enterprises with single entry bookkeeping. Assessment: Satisfactory
  - Financial intermediation: BNB balance sheet and income statement; annual report of the banking system; Annual report of insurance undertakings; Yearbook on insurance businesses (Insurance Supervision Directorate in MOF); Annual report of investment funds; Annual report of pension funds; Annual bookkeeping statements. Assessment: Good
  - Real estate, renting, and business: Annual bookkeeping statement of enterprises with double entry bookkeeping; Report on revenues and expenditure of enterprises with single entry bookkeeping. Assessment: Good
  - Public administration and defense; compulsory social security: Consolidated state budget—report on revenues and expenditures of the state budget for central and local government activities and social security funds. Assessment: Good
  - Education/Health and social work: Consolidated state budget; Annual bookkeeping statement of enterprises with double entry bookkeeping; Report on revenues and expenditure of enterprises with single entry bookkeeping. Assessment: Good
  - Other community, social and personal service activities: Consolidated state budget; Annual bookkeeping statement of enterprises with double entry bookkeeping; Report on revenues and expenditure of enterprises with single entry bookkeeping; Annual report of nonprofit institutions allowing output to be split between market and non-market. Assessment: Good/Satisfactory
  - Net taxes less subsidies on products: Consolidated state budget—revenues and expenditures; Tax authorities information about accrual taxes on products. Assessment: Good
- Selected assessments from the Expenditure Approach (annual accounts):
  - Household final consumption expenditure: HBS; Retail trade; Branch statistics; Agricultural balances; Balance of payments. Assessment: Satisfactory
  - Final consumption expenditure of NPISHs: Annual report of nonprofit institutions allowing output split between market and non-market. Assessment: Satisfactory
  - Government final consumption expenditure: Consolidated state budget—report on revenues and expenditures. Assessment: Good
  - Acquisitions less disposals of tangible fixed assets: Annual bookkeeping statements with balance sheet and special annexes for fixed assets; Report on revenues and expenditure of enterprises with single entry bookkeeping—special reference table ‘Report on dwellings construction’; Commodity flow; Custom statistics. Assessment: Good
  - Acquisitions less disposals of intangible fixed assets: Annual bookkeeping statements—balance sheet; Report on revenues and expenditure of enterprises with single entry bookkeeping—special reference table. Assessment: Satisfactory
  - Additions to the value of non-produced non-financial assets: n.a.
  - Changes in inventories: Annual bookkeeping statements—balance sheet; Report on revenues and expenditure of enterprises with single entry bookkeeping—special reference table; Agricultural balances. Assessment: Satisfactory
  - Acquisitions less disposals of valuables: Not available at the moment—planned to be estimated
  - Exports and imports of goods: Custom statistics. Assessment: Good
  - Exports and imports of services: Balance of payments. Assessment: Good

- Main sources for the quarterly accounts (selected):
  - Production Approach: Quarterly economic accounts of agriculture since the beginning of 2002 (Agriculture, hunting, and forestry). Assessment: Reasonable
  - Quarterly enterprises survey “Financial results” is the main source for: Fishing, Mining and quarrying, Manufacturing, Electricity, gas, and water supply, Construction, Wholesale and retail trade, Hotels and restaurants, Transport, storage, and communications, Real estate, renting, and business. Assessments range from Adequate to Reasonable.
  - Financial intermediation: BNB quarterly information; Quarterly report of insurance undertakings. Assessment: Adequate
  - Public administration and defense; compulsory social security: Quarterly execution of the state budget. Assessment: Adequate
  - Education/Health and social work: Quarterly execution of the state budget and Quarterly enterprises survey “Financial results”. Assessment: Adequate
  - Expenditure Approach (quarterly): Household final consumption expenditure sourced from HBS, Retail trade, Branch statistics, Agricultural balances, Balance of payments. Assessment: Adequate but at a more aggregated level
  - Final consumption expenditure of government and NPISHs: Quarterly execution of the state budget. Assessment: Adequate/Reasonable
  - Gross fixed capital formation: Quarterly report on investment of enterprises; Custom statistics. Assessment: Adequate
  - Changes in inventories: Quarterly enterprises survey “Financial results”. Assessment: Reasonable
  - Exports and imports of goods and services: Custom statistics; Balance of payments. Assessment: Adequate

### Other sources and price information
- Additional quarterly sources: special statistical survey “Financial Results” (exhaustive for all enterprises in the public sector with representative samples for private units outside agriculture); statistical survey of insurance undertakings; labor statistics report; retail trade survey; report on investment of enterprises.
- Available price indices: producer price index (PPI), CPI, unit value indices (UVIs), etc., are adequate for compiling quarterly and annual accounts.

### Administrative data
- Monetary and banking statistics: provided by the BNB; covers annual and quarterly balance sheets and income statements of the BNB and commercial banks; annual annexes provide more detailed breakdowns.
- Balance of Payments: produced by the BNB in accordance with BPM5.
- Consolidated budget: supplied quarterly and annually by the MOF, broken down by function and for each subsector of general government; annual execution detailed by separate units, activities, revenues, and expenditure items.
- Quarterly customs statistics on imports and exports of goods are used to check direct exports of enterprises and external turnover of trade firms.
- Income declarations collected by MOF: main source for output produced by households not recorded in the business register (lawyers, other professionals, street traders, etc.).
- Tax authorities’ information: used to convert VAT and excises data onto an accruals basis using information on the delay between when the taxes fall due and when they are paid to the government.

### Conformity to national accounts requirements
- Source data closely conform to definitions, scope, classifications, valuation, and time of recording required for the national accounts.
- NSI is consulted on changes to accounting standards to ensure financial reports meet national accounts needs.

### Timeliness
- Basic Statistics Divisions deliver quarterly information between 45−55 days after the end of the reference quarter, except for the fourth quarter when data become available within 80 days because of extra processing required.
- Administrative information from MOF, BNB, etc. is delivered about 60 days after the end of each quarter.
- In 2001, the computerized NAD system reduced deadlines for national accounts for the first three quarters to 80 days after the end of the relevant quarter, approaching the Eurostat requirement of 70 days.
- Estimates for the fourth quarter, and hence the first annual totals, become available 115 days after the end of the year.
- Annual figures become available 18 months after the accounting period, based on annual surveys, bookkeeping records, and administrative sources.
- Final estimates based on balanced supply and use tables are produced 36 months after the year in question.

*Source: _cr03393 - 3.1       Source       data*

### 3.2       Statistical       techniques

### 3.2       Statistical       techniques

### 3.2.1 Data compilation employs sound statistical techniques — Production approach procedures
- Industrial breakdown of annual GDP estimates is based on the 3-digit level of NACE, Rev. 1.
- Intermediate consumption for each 3-digit industry is further broken down into 3-digit products using data from the latest supply and use tables; this is the only use of historical ratios, and these are only three years old.
- Agricultural gross output supplements:
  - Includes household primary and secondary production and consumption based on estimates of areas under cultivation and livestock estimates produced by region.
  - Intermediate consumption includes seeds, fertilizer, livestock feed, power, and repairs.
  - Output used for own intermediate consumption is excluded from both output and intermediate consumption.
- Nonresponse estimation:
  - Estimates prepared at the 3-digit level of NACE, Rev. 1.
  - In most cases, average values for similar enterprises are calculated and used for nonresponding enterprises.
- Government budget data cover all activities classified as government services.
- Estimates for holding gains are made by activity branches and for raw materials, work-in-progress, finished goods, and goods for resale.
- Own-account construction and production of major equipment are recorded only when completed (not as work-in-progress).
- Imputed rent of owner-occupied dwellings:
  - Evaluated on the basis of number of dwellings and market rent.
  - Rental market of dwellings is less than 10 percent of the total dwelling stock.
  - NSI implementing an alternative method — the user cost approach recommended by Eurostat.
- Consumption of fixed capital:
  - Not estimated by the perpetual inventory method due to lack of long time series on asset data.
  - Estimates derived from depreciation figures reported in financial reports.

### 3.2.1 Volume measures (production)
- ESA 95 recommendations are followed for constant price estimates.
- Gross value added of most market producers is measured using the double deflation method (output and intermediate consumption deflated separately).
- Paasche type deflators are generally used to estimate production account components.
- Constant price figures are expressed as annual chained indices.
- Industrial output deflation:
  - Deflated at the 2-digit level of NACE, Rev. 1.
  - Deflator combines domestic PPIs and export UVIs.
  - Business Statistics Directorate provides domestic market PPIs at the 3-digit level (Laspeyres type with fixed 1995 base year).
  - NAD recalculates them to derive price changes over the average of the previous year.
  - Monthly surveys provide domestic sales and direct exports used to weight PPIs and export UVIs to obtain implicit deflators of gross output at the 3-digit level; indices weighted to the 2-digit level by applying current period sales as weights to approximate a Paasche deflator.
  - In effect, volume estimates are derived at the 3-digit level of NACE, Rev. 1.
- Supply and use tables:
  - Latest supply and use tables derive structure of intermediate inputs (domestic and imported) by branch for weighing PPIs and import UVIs.
- Agricultural output at constant prices:
  - Estimated using direct valuation of quantities in the previous year prices; intermediate consumption derived by deflation.
- Deflators for services:
  - Relevant business statistics divisions supply deflators for trade, transport, and communications.
  - Market output of other services calculated at constant prices using corresponding CPIs.
- Trade margin (output) at constant prices:
  - Calculated using double deflation.
  - Combined CPI, PPI, and UVI indices used as deflators for purchases by wholesale and retail trade, adjusted for change in inventories.
  - Eurostat pilot project on constant prices: growth in output from detailed deflation of sales will be applied.
- Nonmarket services and construction at constant prices:
  - Sum of deflated value added and intermediate consumption.
  - Wages and salaries index for each industry used for value added; suitable price index applied to intermediate consumption components.
- FISIM:
  - Implicit deflator for domestic demand used to deflate FISIM.
  - Additional work planned with PHARE FISIM project to derive estimates based on projection of deflated values of relevant loans and deposits.
- Net taxes on products:
  - Volume measures estimated by applying base year tax rates to the volume of transactions subject to each tax or subsidy.

### 3.2.1 Expenditure approach procedures
- GDP by final expenditure compiled independently from production data.
- Estimates follow domestic concept and ESA 95; principles applied back to 1991.
- National concept followed from 1996 (introduces a break in figures to maintain consistency with BOP).
- Some production-side estimates applied directly to final demand categories: imputed rent of owner-occupied dwellings, production of households for own final use, own-account construction of residential buildings.
- Demand-side data used to determine exhaustiveness adjustments (e.g., HBS food expenditure used to adjust manufacturing and retail figures).
- Customs statistics for imports/exports used to adjust production figures from business statistics.

### 3.2.1 Expenditure components — Household, NPISH, Government
- Household final consumption expenditure:
  - Since 1997, based on 4-digit level of COICOP.
  - NAD uses multiple sources: BOP for tourist adjustments (national concept since 1996), HBS for food, retail trade statistics for nonfood.
  - Branch statistics used for services (water, electricity, heat energy).
  - Retail trade data presented in accordance with COICOP since 2000.
  - Multiple source estimates for most COICOP items; COICOP classes adjusted for purchases of businesses, income in kind, and household production for own final consumption.
- NPISH final consumption expenditure:
  - Derived from corresponding gross output figures, adjusted for incidental sales.
- Government final consumption expenditure:
  - Calculated by subtracting value of sales (included in intermediate consumption or household final expenditure) from gross output of general government.
  - Distinction between final and intermediate consumption based on detailed budget information.
  - COFOG not yet introduced; National Classification of the Functions of the State Budget provides information for individual/collective split.

### 3.2.1 Expenditure components — GFCF, inventories, trade
- Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF):
  - Measured as expenditure on acquisition of fixed assets (actual construction expenditure, improvements, delivery and installation costs, progress payments), less disposal of existing fixed assets.
  - Tangible fixed assets data from annual report on investments covering all units outside the household sector.
  - Until 1998, data included expenditure on acquisition of secondhand assets; adjustments made to exclude them.
  - Commodity flow approach used for cross-checking GFCF consistency for construction, machinery, and equipment; domestic sales of investment goods and customs imports used.
  - Changes in livestock from agricultural balances.
  - Household acquisition of assets estimated from number of permissions for individual construction of dwellings.
  - Intangible fixed assets estimated from specific annex to annual balance sheet.
- Changes in inventories:
  - Measurement in line with ESA 95.
  - Based mainly on quarterly information.
  - Enterprises sector: quarterly survey “Financial Results” and annual balance sheets provide stocks at beginning and end of period; changes derived as differences and estimated separately by stage of processing and adjusted for holding gains; current and constant price data derived simultaneously.
  - Unincorporated household activities and agricultural producers: HBS data and agricultural balances used; agricultural data in volume terms means no holding gains adjustment necessary.
- Imports and exports of goods and services:
  - Goods: valued free on board, calculated on customs declarations from External Trade Statistics Division at 8-digit Combined Nomenclature, with transition key to national classification of products and NACE, Rev. 1; same figures included in BOP.
  - Services: breakdown provided by BOP covering construction, transport, communication, financial and insurance services, operating leasing, culture, science, sports, maintenance of embassies, etc.
  - Until 2000 BOP prepared services only in U.S. dollars and NAD converted into Bulgarian leva; since 2001 BOP provides figures in leva based on actual transaction exchange rates.

### 3.2.1 Volume measures (expenditure)
- Household final consumption expenditure at constant prices:
  - Derived by applying relevant CPIs for corresponding COICOP items at the 3-digit level.
  - CPIs used are chain-linked, Paasche type indices covering the whole territory.
- Final consumption expenditures of general government and NPISHs deflated with implicit output indices of corresponding branches.
- GFCF at constant prices obtained by applying Paasche price indices: implicit construction output deflator, domestic PPIs, import UVIs for investment goods; implicit deflator of output of agricultural productive goods.
- Inventories deflation:
  - Estimated at average previous year prices using specific monthly or quarterly indices depending on stock-holding period.
  - Raw materials deflated with combination of PPIs and import UVIs.
  - Supply and use tables derive structure of materials held in stock by industry.
  - Work-in-progress and finished goods deflated with indices from relevant PPIs weighted from 3-digit to 2-digit level with current period weights.
  - For electricity and service branches, overall manufacturing industry price index used.
  - Goods for resale deflated with monthly and quarterly PPIs for manufactures.
- Trade in goods deflated with Paasche type UVIs; since 2001 Foreign Trade Statistics Division improved quality of these indices, price index calculated from average prices of selected commodities for each 3-digit NACE, Rev. 1 class.
- Import of services deflated with harmonized CPI of EU-15.
- Exports of services at constant prices derived by applying corresponding national CPI.

### 3.2.1 Specific quarterly compilation techniques
- Quarterly accounts prepared since 1994; GDP calculated from production and expenditure approaches at current and constant prices; constant price figures expressed as time-series of chain-linked indices.
- Quarterly estimates largely based on direct surveys and apply same methodology as annual national accounts; lower level of detail than annual accounts.
- Work-in-progress not estimated quarterly for agriculture due to lack of usable data.
- Quarterly adjustments made for holding gains; exhaustiveness (people working without labor contract based on LFS); income in kind; and underreporting.
- Seasonally adjusted GDP:
  - Calculated on an experimental basis and published only as a graph.
  - Model used is Tramo/Seats (Demetra interface proposed by Eurostat).
  - Data available from 1995, but only for total GDP.
  - Calculation of seasonally adjusted output and expenditure components is planned.
- Three sets of national accounts compiled for each quarter:
  1. First quarterly accounts estimates published 80 days after the corresponding period, compiled from quarterly basic statistical information; production and expenditure side GDP estimates balanced on use matrix framework but statistical discrepancies not entirely removed.
  2. The preliminary annual estimates can involve revisions to estimates for the first three quarters.
  3. Finalized quarterly estimates reconciled with final annual accounts using the Denton technique.
- In practice, two series of finalized estimates for each year:
  - First set reconciled with final annual figures before finalizing supply and use tables.
  - Second set achieved after last revision of annual accounts and construction of supply and use tables; with final revised estimates, reconciliation removes all statistical discrepancies in line with balancing procedure of quarterly aggregates.

### 3.2.2 Other statistical procedures (data adjustments, transformations, and analysis)
- Large number of procedures applied to adjust source data and improve coverage, definitions, and valuation in conformity with international guidelines.
- Production and expenditure estimates balanced through a supply and use framework.
- NAD participation in Eurostat pilot project on exhaustiveness to ensure exhaustive coverage as defined in ESA 95.
- Specific adjustments for informal and underground activities; some investigation of illegal activities (e.g., drug-related transactions) undertaken but not incorporated into accounts due to quality concerns.
- NSI focus (per European Commission Decision on exhaustiveness) on estimation of legal activities not directly observed in surveys related to:
  - survey nonresponse;
  - evasion of taxes and/or social security;
  - exemption from obligation to submit information to tax and social security authorities.
- Nonresponse adjustment procedure:
  - Prepared at 3-digit level of NACE, Rev. 1.
  - Number of nonresponded units, their activities, and number of employees determined.
  - Average revenue from sales per employee calculated from responded units in same activities with similar number of employees.
  - Derived ratio used to estimate activity of nonresponded units.
- Adjustments for underreporting to avoid tax and social payments (indirect methods):
  - Calculate ratio between intermediate consumption by types of expenditures and gross output for homogeneous groups defined by activity, ownership, and number of employees at 3-digit level of NACE, Rev. 1; deviations indicate overreporting in intermediate consumption and underreporting in gross output.
  - Additional adjustments based on comparison of structural indicators in public vs private sectors and small vs large enterprises; small units often show extremely distorted intermediate consumption/gross output ratios (can be twice or three times larger than public sector or larger private enterprises).
  - Some businesses record expenses of their own staff as external services to avoid social security payments, inflating externally supplied services shares.
  - Evaluation of retail trade sales using demand-side HBS identifies underestimation of sales (HBS shows higher expenditures on food than recorded in retail sales).
- Main exhaustiveness correction for missing income based on LFS data:
  - Employers tend to employ workers without labor contract to avoid tax and social contribution payments.
  - According to LFS results, their number is about 100,000, with increases in June and September owing to seasonal character of some activities.

*Source: _cr03393 - 3.2       Statistical       techniques*

### 3.3 Assessment and validation of source data

### 3.3 Assessment and validation of source data

### Assessment and validation of source data (scope and practices)
- Source data (censuses, sample surveys, administrative records) are routinely assessed for coverage, sample error, response error, and nonsampling error.
- Information about sampling errors is available.
- NAD routinely reviews nonresponse adjustments made by Basic Statistics Divisions.
- Information is available about imputation methods for nonresponse in the surveys.
- High-value transactions are confirmed with respondents.
- Accuracy of budgetary data, international trade, price statistics, and other secondary sources used in national accounts is routinely assessed by national accounts experts.
- Source data are validated and made consistent with national accounts by:
  - Analyzing and correcting for underreporting/misreporting.
  - Checking temporal consistency and consistency with other related data sources.
  - Checking definitions, valuation, reference periods, and classifications.
  - Ensuring revisions to source data are reasonable.

### Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs
- Main intermediate data are validated against other primary/secondary sources whenever possible.
- A systematic procedure exists to routinely assess and investigate discrepancies in intermediate data; appropriate adjustments are made to remove discrepancies.
- Supply and use tables are used to investigate discrepancies and make outputs consistent.
- Informal activity figures are checked against those produced by other organizations; some methods from these organizations are adopted by the NAD.

### Revision studies and use of findings
- National accounts data are subject to routine revisions before being considered final.
- Direction and magnitude of revisions between preliminary and final data are investigated.
- Short explanations about the reasons and type of revisions accompany national accounts releases.
- Results of investigations and adjustments are taken into account when compiling subsequent periods' data.

### Key statistics and timeframes related to data quality
- Revisions schedule:
  - First annual estimates of GDP and subcategories become available 115 days after the end of the year (calculated as a sum of preliminary quarterly accounts).
  - Revised annual estimates are published 18 months after the accounting period (based on annual information from surveys, bookkeeping, administrative sources).
  - Final estimates (after compilation of supply and use tables) become available 36 months after the end of the year.
- Quarterly GDP estimates for the first three quarters are disseminated within 80 days after the end of the quarter, exceeding the SDDS requirement of 90 days.
- Fourth quarter GDP figures are released 115 days after the end of the quarter (does not meet GDDS or SDDS requirements).
- Quarterly data release timing: first release within 80 days of the end of the reference quarter; quarterly data are fully reconciled with each annual revision.
- Statistical discrepancy between quarterly GDP by output and expenditure approaches is stable over time—less than 1 percent.
- Consistent national accounts time series according to ESA 95 are available from 1991 onward.
- A change in classification of economic activities in 1996 is documented as a break in series.

---

### 4 Serviceability (relevance, timeliness, consistency, revision policy)

### Relevance and user engagement
- Users represented on groups (e.g., High Statistical Council) for establishing and maintaining the statistical program.
- NAD arranges periodic meetings with user groups; marketing surveys to identify user needs are undertaken regularly.
- National accounts experts participate in international meetings (Eurostat, OECD, UNECE, IMF).
- NSI representatives participate in interinstitutional working groups for ad hoc and accession purposes.

### Timeliness and periodicity
- Quarterly periodicity as prescribed under the SDDS is followed.
- Timeliness specifics:
  - First three quarters: disseminated within 80 days of quarter end (meets and exceeds SDDS 90-day requirement).
  - Fourth quarter: available 115 days after quarter end (does not meet GDDS/SDDS requirements).
  - First annual estimates: 115 days after year end.
  - First revision (independent annual estimates): 18 months after year end.
  - Second revision (supply and use tables): 36 months after year end.

### Consistency
- Annual national accounts are internally consistent; GDP by activity and expenditure balanced via supply and use framework.
- Current price estimates are consistent with constant price series and deflators; quarterly GDP sums to annual estimates.
- Concepts, definitions, classifications same for quarterly and annual estimates, except:
  - Quarterly GDP by output and expenditure approaches and preliminary annual data are not completely balanced; official published GDP for these periods is based on the production approach, with an additional residual item in expenditure tables.
- National accounts are generally consistent with balance of payments (BOP) and government finance statistics:
  - BOP used as main source for transactions with rest of the world; current account used as a “mirror” account.
  - Net lending/borrowing reconciled with BOP current external balance.
  - Consistency with quarterly BOP exists only for a short time due to monthly BNB revisions.
  - Net lending/net borrowing of general government subsectors in nonfinancial national accounts is identical to government debt and deficit as presented by MOF since 1998 (according to ESA 95 and Council Regulation 3605/93 of EC).
  - Other transactions for general government require adjustment to conform to ESA 95.

### Revision policy and practice
- Revisions follow a regular, transparent schedule:
  - First annual estimate: 115 days after year end (from preliminary quarterly accounts).
  - First revision: 18 months after year end (based on annual information).
  - Second revision: 3 years after period (supply and use tables).
- Quarterly releases may produce within-year revisions to improve consistency and comparability and to maintain quarterly-annual consistency.
- Occasional one-off changes occur due to changes in surveys, estimation procedures, incorporation of nonannual statistics (censuses), or changes in concepts/definitions/classifications (notably harmonization with ESA 95).
- Users are informed of reasons for revisions through press conferences and publications.
- Preliminary annual estimates are identified in statistical releases; quarterly data are not separately identified as preliminary but published data bear the exact date of compilation.
- Studies and analyses of revisions are carried out; reasons are given in publications, but analyses are not published in full.

---

### 5 Accessibility (data, metadata, and user assistance)

### Data accessibility and dissemination formats
- National accounts data published with charts and tables; datasets published with various levels of detail depending on publication type.
- Annual analysis included in NSI publication “Socioeconomic Development of Bulgaria.”
- Quarterly GDP release supplemented with short comments and methodological notes.
- GDP data first published via press release, followed by a more comprehensive publication.
- Recently released data and longer time series accessible via the NSI Internet site.
- Hard-copy publications that include national accounts data:
  1. "Statistical Journal" (monthly edition), NSI (Bulgarian/English) — Quarterly GDP;
  2. "Main Macroeconomic Indicators," NSI (Bulgarian/English);
  3. "Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Bulgaria," NSI (Bulgarian/English);
  4. “Statistical Reference Book,” NSI (Bulgarian);
  5. “Statistical Reference Book of the Republic of Bulgaria,” NSI (English).
- Statistics are released on a preannounced schedule; NSI revised calendar presentation in 2002 to include exact dates following a 2001 assessment.
- NSI supplies details of forthcoming events by fax to registered users when calendar not yet published.
- NSI provides data to media on an embargo basis at a press conference; data are available on the Internet one hour after the beginning of the press conference.
- NSI can provide nonpublished (but nonconfidential) subaggregates upon request and under signed bilateral contracts; may be supplied to other users possibly for a fee, but this facility is not publicized.

### Metadata accessibility
- Metadata (concepts, definitions, classifications, data sources, statistical techniques) are published on the Internet, but only for quarterly GDP and in Bulgarian.
- National accounts chapters in the “Statistical Yearbook” and the “Statistical Reference Book” contain metadata.
- “Main Macroeconomic Indicators” contains more detailed methodological notes in Bulgarian and English.
- GDDS summary methodology is regularly reviewed and updated.
- NAD participated in Eurostat activity to produce a detailed internal description of sources and methods for annual GDP estimates; that description is used internally and is not disseminated.
- The description of methodology in each publication is adapted to the intended audience.

### Assistance to users and catalogs
- Prompt and knowledgeable service is available; national accounts experts provide assistance to national and international users.
- Publications provide a standard contact in the Information Division of the NSI, and only in Bulgarian.
- A catalog of publications, documents, and services is available and updated annually; published in hardcopy and on the NSI website.
- Prices of statistical products and services are clearly disclosed, and assistance is provided for placing orders.

---

*Source: _cr03393 - 3.3 Assessment and validation of source data (Compiling Agency: National Statistical Institute).*

### Chapter 5 of this Law, which requires statistical bodies to inform the public about the results

### Chapter 5 of this Law, which requires statistical bodies to inform the public about the results from statistical surveys

### Legal framework and the National Program for Statistical Surveys (NPSS)
- Chapter 5 requires statistical bodies to inform the public about results from statistical surveys through mass media, own publications, and other means.
- The Bulgarian Annual Statistical Plan incorporates the NPSS of the NSI and other surveys of interinstitutional significance.
- For each statistical survey included in the NPSS the following items must be stated:
  - the purpose, contents, and coverage of the survey;
  - the methods for conducting the survey, information sources, and forms of data collection;
  - the body or bodies conducting the survey, obligations for data provision by the respondents, and the budget for the survey.
- The NPSS covers:
  - permanently conducted statistical surveys of established public significance;
  - other statistical surveys for the particular year;
  - particular surveys related to international obligations undertaken by the Republic of Bulgaria;
  - exhaustive censuses conducted according to specific laws.
- The NPSS is published in the Official Gazette and contains detailed survey characteristics including theme, contents and object, method, sources and form of data collection, conducting bodies, obligation for data provision, and budget.
- Funds for implementing the NPSS are provided from the State Budget and allocated to bodies undertaking the surveys; "There is no information available about the coordination of these funds, and the efficiency of their use, for monitoring."
- Annual operating plans for statistical activity are developed in conformity with the NPSS and contain detailed task allocations, including aspects of data exchange.

### Data sharing, coordination, and institutional mechanisms
- Under the Law on Statistics the NSI is responsible for coordinating all national statistical activity.
- Main incentives for coordination: sharing of information, participation in joint statistical activities, access to statistical expertise, and influence on priority setting.
- Coordination tools:
  - the NPSS statistical infrastructure—classifications, registers, definitions, indicators;
  - councils: National Statistical Council, High Statistical Council, Methodological Council, Editing Council, Methodology and Training Council, IT Council;
  - agreements, protocols, rules, methods, and ordinance with bodies of statistics and other institutions.
- Agreements on data exchange between NSI and main ministries/other state institutions began in 2000; agreements include two annexes describing statistical surveys, indicators, periodicity, terms, and information carriers:
  - Annex 1 specifies NSI’s responsibilities;
  - Annex 2 indicates those of the other institutions.
- Terms of data provision in agreements are consistent with the requirements of the ARC for dissemination of statistical survey results.

### Confidentiality, respondent obligations, and legal mandates
- Confidentiality provisions:
  - Article 25: individual and personal data received may be used only for statistical purposes.
  - Article 22: respondents must be informed of their rights and obligations, including data confidentiality guarantee.
  - Data on individual reporters can only be provided to third parties with written permission.
  - Article 26 prohibits making public or providing: (1) individual statistical data; (2) statistical data that may be combined to identify an individual person; (3) statistical data that summarize information for less than three units or in which the relative part of one unit is more than 85 percent of the total volume.
  - Article 55: any person not complying with these provisions will be liable to a fine of up to 6,000 leva.
- Operational confidentiality safeguards:
  - All computers and databases are password controlled.
  - Destruction of unwanted survey forms is tightly controlled and undertaken by specially licensed contractors with formal authorization procedures.
  - One accidental breach of confidentiality is known; appropriate disciplinary action was taken.
- Reporting mandates and penalties:
  - Article 20 requires all organizations and individuals to submit data covered by the NPSS.
  - Article 52 establishes a penalty of up to 6,000 leva for noncompliance with reporting requirements (including misreporting).
  - If refusal persists, prosecution can result and such cases are publicized.

### Resources: staff, finances, and infrastructure
- NSI staffing (end of 2002):
  - total staff: 1,689;
  - permanent contracts: 1,609;
  - temporary contracts: 89;
  - compared with 2001, permanent staff decreased by 190 employees.
- CPI-specific staffing:
  - Six staff work on the CPI in the head office.
  - Regional price collectors also perform other collections and spend only part of their time on CPI work.
  - These staff resources are considered inadequate.
- Training and recruitment constraints:
  - Lack of financial resources: no face-to-face training of price collectors over the last four years.
  - Low pay impedes recruitment and retention; NSI is classified as a category 3 institution rather than category 2 which would allow improved staff pay.
  - A proposal to change NSI status was made at the end of 2001 and again at the end of 2002; response pending.
- Accommodation and morale:
  - In 2002 the Council of Ministers decided NSI vacate its Sofia office; suitable alternative accommodation was not supplied as of January 2003, adversely affecting staff morale.
- Financial management:
  - Central budget funds are assigned annually from the State Budget; wages, social security, current and capital costs covered in expenditure.
  - Main financial problems relate to operating costs (conducting surveys/studies and overheads such as electricity, telecommunications, postal, and other external services), requiring tight controls on expenditure.

### Performance indicators and efficiency measures
- First main performance indicators developed in 2000, under "Statistics about Statistics."
- New performance indicator system follows Statistical Capacity Building Indicators (PARIS 21 Task Team) and covers seven dimensions:
  - effectiveness and usefulness;
  - resources—staff, budget, infrastructure;
  - transparency;
  - timeliness;
  - accuracy and relevance;
  - respondent burden;
  - international cooperation.
- Approach: review available data (including data gaps), assess usefulness as quality indicators, and produce time series to observe trends; process ongoing.

### Quality assurance, monitoring, and user engagement
- NSI roles and quality orientation:
  - Under Article 7(1) NSI coordinates state statistical activity and ensures methodological uniformity.
  - NSI adopts quality dimensions in accordance with definition accepted by Eurostat.
  - Quality features in the Strategy for Development of Statistics and Priority Tasks 2001−2005.
- Use of GDDS and SDDS:
  - GDDS is used as a development frame, addressing coverage, periodicity and timeliness, quality, integrity, and public access.
  - Regular revisions to national metadata for GDDS are included in IMF DSBB; work towards SDDS adoption is continuing.
- Quality control activities and outputs:
  - Since 2000 the Statistical Methods and Standards Division studies and elaborates statistical data quality issues.
  - Quality theme included and prioritized in NPSS since 2000.
  - Quality assessment linked to development of national practice for data quality control and harmonization with ESS requirements.
  - Focus on quality directed at all stages of production and dissemination; 2001 Bulgarian Statistical Yearbook demonstrates dissemination of methodologies in each chapter.
  - Increasing use of administrative sources to reduce respondent burden; metadata coverage indicated in DSBB.
- User feedback and standards:
  - User satisfaction researched via periodic marketing research, surveys on respondent burden, and business attitudes towards confidentiality.
  - NSI adopted Quality Declaration principles of the ESS and will gradually apply relevant Eurostat quality recommendations.
  - Reports comply with European Commission and Council Regulations for respective surveys.
- Trade-offs and planning:
  - NSI holds regular meetings with users to consider trade-offs between timeliness and quality.
  - NPSS process balances early supply of statistics against ensuring good quality.
  - Eurostat pressures to improve timeliness are considered only when achievable via more efficient procedures rather than reduced quality.

### Professionalism, impartiality, and transparency
- Professionalism and independence:
  - 1999 Law on Statistics establishes NSI autonomy and requires statistical activity to comply with rule of law, impartiality, reliability, efficiency, adequacy, publicity, and confidentiality.
  - No external interference in compilation and dissemination of NSI statistics reported.
  - NSI adheres to international methodological recommendations; choices of sources and techniques are based solely on statistical considerations.
- Institutional collaboration and training:
  - Strong links between NSI, universities, and research institutes; NSI staff participate in international training (example: between 1999 and 2002 experts participated in two seminars held by the Joint Vienna Institute—two persons for 14 days each).
- Communication and misuse correction:
  - Key data presented and explained at regular monthly press conferences to prevent misunderstandings.
  - NSI responds publicly to incorrect interpretations of data.
- Transparency practices:
  - Terms and conditions of data collection, processing, dissemination, release timetables, confidentiality, and related points are publicly available in documents reproduced on NSI website and in printed/electronic publications.
  - Fundamental principles, methodologies, classifications, nomenclatures, and mission statements are regularly released in NSI Statistics Magazine and on the website.
  - NSI is clearly identified on all products with logo and publishing information; joint publications must include partner logos and methodological notes identifying sources.
- Internal governmental access:
  - Under new dissemination rules, CPI data are provided to relevant government ministers (under embargo conditions) for briefing purposes up to one hour prior to the embargo time.
  - This new rule is contained only on the NSI website in Bulgarian and is not yet reflected in IMF GDDS NSI metadata; NSI plans to present the rule in English on the website and update GDDS metadata.
- Advance notice of methodological changes:
  - NSI informs users about current status and all significant changes in methodology, sources, and data collection techniques for all NPSS surveys through the Statistics Magazine and the NSI website.

*Source: _cr03393 - Chapter 5 of this Law, which requires statistical bodies to inform the public about the results from statistical surveys (PDF).*

### 1.3       Ethical       standards

### 1.3       Ethical       standards

### Guidelines for staff behavior
- Job descriptions for each NSI staff member list the laws to be familiar with and apply: the Law on Statistics, the Law for the Civil Servant, the Law for the Administration, and the Code of Behavior of the Civil Servant.
- No special training course is provided to new staff on these laws.
- Before signing employment contracts, new staff are required to sign a declaration not to release individual data accessed during everyday work.

### Methodological soundness
- From the beginning of 1999, the National CPI has been a chained Laspeyres index with the weights changed annually.
- COICOP was introduced for CPI calculation beginning in 1999.
- Since 2000, the geometric mean formula has been applied at the elementary aggregate level.
- The CPI relates to household final monetary consumption expenditure (HFMCE) and excludes imputed expenditures (including imputed rentals of owner-occupied dwellings and own-account production of market goods for own final consumption), consistent with specific EU regulations for price statistics despite departing from ESA 95 in these exclusions.

### Scope and indices produced
- The NSI compiles the National CPI regarded as the official measure of inflation in Bulgaria.
- Since 1997 a preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) has been produced for Eurostat; the National CPI and the preliminary HICP are derived from the same database and at present are identical.
- No regional indices are produced.
- The NSI produces an additional index for a small basket of 100 goods and services targeted at the bottom 20 percent (low-income households).
- The CPI covers expenditures of all resident, noninstitutional households; excludes: imputed rents for owner occupied housing, dwelling purchases, major maintenance and repair of dwellings, life insurance services, pension and obligatory health insurance, gambling, self-production, and illegally sold goods and services.
- Financial services are not yet covered, owing to their insignificant relative share (less than 0.1 percent of total expenditure).
- Note: exclusion of both imputed dwelling rents and dwelling purchases means housing is not covered in the CPI.

### Classification and recording
- ESA 95 is used to classify institutional units and transactions; COICOP is followed in aggregating household expenditures.
- Valuation basis: purchasers’ prices inclusive of VAT, trade and transport margins; sales/discounted prices included consistent with EU Regulation regarding price reductions in the HICP.
- Price collection period: from the 5th to the 25th of the reference month; prices of goods recorded in the period purchased, services recorded when consumption commences (e.g., education, package holidays) in accordance with EC Regulation No 2601/2000.

### Data sources, sampling and coverage
- Comprehensive population and business registers maintained by NSI are available for sampling frames; population register updated annually and revised every ten years using the population census.
- HBS uses population census data and population register to prepare its sampling frame.
- The NSI business register is not sufficiently up-to-date for outlet sampling in the volatile retail industry; outlet sampling is judgmental and relies on price collectors’ selection, confirmed by the Regional Statistical Office director.
- Price collectors instructed to select outlets with large retail sales volume and a variety of goods.
- HBS is continuous with monthly and annual results; selected households observed for one year.
- HBS is a 2-stage probability sample: first stage covers enumeration districts according to size; second stage selects six households per enumeration district.
- Stratification: firstly by region (28) and type of region (regional center, urban or rural), and secondly by the size of the household.
- Sample size for 2002 is 3,000 households (6,000 households were sampled in 2000 and 2001).
- Initial response rate when first sampled was 60.1 percent for 2001; nonrespondent households are replaced with other households from the same strata.
- Recording period for diary items is 15 days; each month two diaries are completed by each household.
- Consumer basket consists of 512 goods and services; each month price collectors register prices of 482 goods and services by personal visits; prices of remaining 30 goods and services are centrally collected.
- Weight of locally collected prices is 84.9 percent of total CPI weight; weight of centrally collected prices is 15.1 percent.
- Inclusion threshold: goods and services included if weight > 0.1 percent of total household expenditure.
- Prices are collected each month from 4,589 outlets located in all 27 district centers (including the capital city); 31,151 price quotations are obtained each month.
- These 27 centers account for over 65 percent of national retail sales.
- Collected price data are sent from regional offices to the national office via an internal data exchange system (based on the Internet) by the end of the reference month.

### Data timeliness and coordination
- Expenditure data from the HBS are available at the end of the previous year and used in CPI calculation for the current year.
- Monthly collection of expenditure enables construction of annual weights covering a full calendar year and facilitates annual weight updates.
- Consumer price data are available on a timely basis.

### Statistical techniques and data treatment
- HBS provides detailed expenditure data for CPI weighting according to COICOP at the 2, 3, and 4-digit levels and a national extension to 5th and 6th digits for elementary aggregate weighting.
- Goods and services purchased are valued at actual prices paid by households regardless of payment method.
- Since 2000, geometric mean formula used for elementary aggregates; higher level indices calculated by Laspeyres chain formula with annual links.
- From 2000, prices for temporarily missing products (up to two months) are imputed at outlet level based on a matched sample of average prices (short-term approach); if a product remains missing, a similar substitute is introduced.
- Quality adjustment procedures applied at national level in a small number of selected cases; main approach is the overlap method using price differences in overlap periods as proxies for quality differences.
- Until 2000, long-term relative approach used for imputing missing prices of fresh products; from 2001, method improved by introducing the short-term relative approach.
- Products permanently unavailable are replaced; new products introduced at annual sample update when market share exceeds 0.1 percent of total expenditure.

### Validation, assessment and revisions
- HBS sampling errors are available and acceptable; nonresponse handled by replacement households introduced on a scientific basis.
- Sampling errors are not available for the price survey because scientific sampling methods are not used for outlet and product selection.
- Administrative prices and tariffs are crosschecked in the market; other price data are checked and edited by software and manual procedures at regional and national levels; rejected prices treated as missing observations.
- Price collectors report significant or unusual price changes with explanations.
- As a chained Laspeyres index, weighting source data are analyzed and validated each year.
- CPI experts selectively compare components with other indices (PPI, export, import price indices).
- During 2002, CPI price data for water supply were compared with the annual survey of water supply and sewerage collection.
- Unusual movements in components are investigated with price collectors and centrally collected price suppliers.
- The overall CPI is computed as the weighted arithmetic mean of group indices derived from elementary aggregates; compiled only on a national basis.
- Routine practice: introduction of new weights and samples each year does not result in retrospective revisions of index numbers.
- Initially released January index numbers are preliminary (based on incomplete HBS data for January−November of previous year) and are revised at release of February indices after full year HBS data are available; index numbers for all other months are final when first released.
- January revisions are minor; differences are analyzed and explained in publication.

### Serviceability, relevance and dissemination
- The survey of consumer prices is part of the NPSS adopted by the Council of Ministries.
- CPI methodology issues are presented and discussed at the NSI Methodological Council (users from Ministries, the National Bank, Academy of Science).
- Working groups are established as necessary to discuss user opinions (e.g., Syndicates, Ministries).
- Regular relations with CPI users: the media, Ministries, the National Bank, the Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting.
- NSI price statistics staff participate in meetings and seminars organized by Eurostat, the UN, and the ILO.
- Timeliness: CPI normally released in the week containing the 10th of the month following the reference month and therefore exceeds SDDS requirements.
- Periodicity: monthly and complies with the SDDS.
- Consistency: CPI is an annual chained Laspeyres index; monthly indices chained across years to maintain long series.
- CPI Division revised series for 1995−2000 to apply COICOP and new methodology; revised series provided to Eurostat, the OECD, the IMF, and the ILO and published to replace old series for that period.
- Old CPI series for 1990−94 (May 1990=100) re-referenced to 1995 to provide historical time series; users informed of a break between December 1994 and January 1995 with methodological notes.
- CPI data are broadly consistent with national accounts deflators for household consumption following ESA 95, subject to the index’s exclusion of imputed expenditures.

*IMF staff report: Price Statistics (Consumer Price Index), section 1.3 Ethical standards and related methodological and serviceability details.*

### 4.4       Revision       policy and practice

### 4.4       Revision       policy and practice

### 4.4.1 Revisions follow a regular, well-established, and transparent schedule
- The NSI’s annual calendar for data releases is published on its Internet site and is available to all users; it provides release dates for both the preliminary and final CPI (for January of each year).
- Regular updates to samples of outlets, basket of goods and services, and annual weight updates are communicated to users via regular press conferences and NSI website postings.
- Index series are not routinely recompiled retrospectively and revised to reflect new samples and weights; instead the new series are linked onto the old series each year to form a continuous time series.
- Index numbers for the months of February to December of each year are final when first released and are not revised.

### 4.4.2 Preliminary data are clearly identified
- Each year the January index is first released as a preliminary index (calculated with weights from January−November of the previous year).
- The final January index is released together with the February index and replaces the preliminary one.
- Users are informed that the initially published data for January are preliminary and subject to revision; this is clearly identified in the publications.
- Both preliminary and final January CPIs are disseminated with the same level of detail.

### 4.4.3 Studies and analyses of revisions are made public
- Differences between preliminary and final January CPIs, although minor, are analyzed and explained in the publication.
- For the major revision for the period 1995−2000, a detailed analysis was undertaken and the results were presented to the Methodological Council.
- Users were notified of the changes made, that the revision represented a marked improvement over the old series, and that it now complied with Eurostat requirements.

---

### Accessibility (sections 5.1–5.3)

### 5.1 Data accessibility
- CPI data are presented at regular monthly press conferences for the overall CPI, the 12 major COICOP headings, and the four main groups (food, nonfood, services, and catering), with analyses of recent price developments; the same data are posted on the NSI website and sent to Regional Statistical Offices.
- CPI back-data for the overall index and recent data at various levels of disaggregation are presented in tables and charts in the NSI’s monthly and annual publications.
- The CPI data are first released at regular press conferences and via the Bulgarian Information Agency; an hour later, the information is posted on the NSI website.
- Subsequently the data are published in the Statistical Journal and annually in the “Statistical Yearbook” and the “Statistical Reference Book”.
- The NSI Statistical Services division provides a wide range of services based on ad-hoc requests, for a fee.
- CPI data are released according to a preannounced schedule presented in the NSI’s annual calendar of data releases; the calendar contains the release dates and the embargo time and is available in hard copy and on the website.
- The CPI release is embargoed until 11.30 a.m. on the preannounced day of release.
  - Embargoed data are provided under embargo conditions for briefing purposes to:
    - media representatives at a press conference commencing at 11.00 a.m., and
    - government ministers up to one hour prior to the embargo time.
- The NSI Information Services Division can provide unpublished specialized tabulations for a fee; terms and conditions, including a price list, are contained on the NSI website.

### 5.2 Metadata accessibility
- The publication "Methodology for Statistical Observation of the Consumer Prices" is available to users on request.
- Annually updated CPI methodology is presented on the NSI website and in the NSI Statistical Journal.
- The GDDS summary methodologies are annually reviewed and updated; the last update was in July 2002.
- Methodological notes are published in the “Statistical Yearbook” and the “Statistical Reference Book”.

### 5.3 Assistance to users
- Contact persons are published in the Statistical Journal; CPI press releases list the name of the contact person, including the telephone number and email address of the NSI press center.
- A catalog of publications is published and updated each year; the prices of the statistical products and services are clearly disclosed and assistance is provided in placing orders.

---

*Source: _cr03393 - 4.4       Revision       policy and practice*

### 0.3       Quality       awareness

### _cr03393 - 0.3       Quality       awareness

### 0.3.1 Processes are in place to focus on quality
- The NSI coordinates state statistical activity under Article 7(1) of the Law on Statistics and ensures methodological uniformity in drafting and implementing the NPSS.
- The NSI adopts quality dimensions in accordance with the definition of quality accepted by Eurostat.
- The topic of quality is included in:
  - the Strategy for Development of Statistics and in the Priority Tasks for the period 2001−2005;
  - the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) framework, addressing coverage, periodicity, timeliness, quality, integrity, and public access.
- Regular revisions are made to national metadata for the GDDS and included in the DSBB of the IMF.
- Work towards adoption of the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) of the IMF is continuing.
- PPI methodology change: at the beginning of 1999 NSI commenced introduction of a new PPI methodology to accord with Eurostat requirements; a work program adopted for progressive implementation of transaction pricing to replace unit values.
- Coverage under the new price survey: 75 groups (3rd digit level) of NACE Rev. 1, representing about 83 percent of the sales of industrial enterprises.
- Current base year for the PPI is 1995; NSI is in the process of updating the PPI to a 2000 base year.

### 0.3.2 Processes are in place to monitor quality of collection, processing, and dissemination
- The Statistical Methods and Standards — Price Statistics (Producer Price Index) Division has been engaged since 2000 in studying and elaborating issues of statistical data quality.
- Examples of quality emphasis:
  - The theme of quality has been included and given priority in the NPSS since 2000.
  - Quality assessment connected with development of national practice on control of data quality and harmonization according to ESS requirements.
  - Quality focus directed at all stages of production and dissemination; the 2001 Bulgarian Statistical Yearbook disseminates methodologies in every chapter and highlights use of administrative sources to reduce respondent burden.
- User satisfaction research includes periodic market research on user satisfaction, surveys on respondent burden, and business attitudes toward statistical confidentiality.
- NSI has adopted the principles of the Quality Declaration of the ESS and relevant Eurostat Leadership Group; reports comply with European Commission and Council Regulations for respective surveys.

### 0.3.3 Processes to handle quality trade-offs and guide planning
- NSI holds regular meetings with users to consider trade-offs between timeliness and quality and conducts surveys to capture broader user needs.
- NPSS process considers balance between early supply of statistics and ensuring good quality; pressure from Eurostat to improve timeliness is addressed only by efficiency gains, not by reducing data quality.

### 1. Integrity — Professionalism, Transparency, Ethical standards
- Legal and institutional safeguards:
  - 1999 Law on Statistics establishes NSI autonomy and requires statistical activity to comply with principles including impartiality and confidentiality.
  - A National Statistical Council drafts the NPSS; Rules for dissemination of statistical information products and services apply.
- Professional development:
  - Strong links between NSI and universities/research institutes; staff participation in international training encouraged.
  - Between beginning of 1999 and end of 2002, experts participated in two seminars held by the Joint Vienna Institute (two persons for 14 days each).
- Independence and methodological choices:
  - Choices of data sources and statistical techniques are based solely on professional statistical considerations and international standards; no evidence of outside interference.
- Communication and correction of misuse:
  - Key data are presented and explained at regular monthly press conferences; NSI responds publicly in all cases of incorrect interpretation.
- Transparency of terms and conditions:
  - Information on conditions of collection, processing, release timetables, confidentiality, etc., is available in the Law on Statistics and dissemination rules, and in NSI publications and website.
  - No internal government access to the PPI prior to its release embargo time.
  - NSI clearly identified on printed and electronic products; joint publications include partner identification and methodological notes.
  - Advance notice is given of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques; detailed information provided via Statistics Magazine and the website.
- Ethical standards:
  - Job descriptions itemize laws staff must be familiar with (Law on Statistics, Law for the Civil Servant, Law for the Administration, Code of Behavior of the Civil Servant).
  - New staff sign a declaration not to release individual data accessed during work.

### 2. Methodological soundness — Producer Price Index (PPI) specifics
- Conceptual and methodological alignment:
  - PPIs for the domestic market are calculated following EU Regulation 1165/98 and the 1998 PPI Eurostat Manual on Business Statistics and Methodology of Short-term Business Statistics.
  - PRODCOM concepts and definitions are used for selecting individual products for monthly pricing.
  - PPI relates to output prices; separate indices of final use are calculated; input price indices and stage of processing indices are not yet produced.
- Product specification principles (PPI Manual):
  - (i) prices represent prices achieved for a significant proportion of sales;
  - (ii) same product and terms of sale quoted each month;
  - (iii) products and terms of sale described in sufficient detail;
  - (iv) prices are ex-factory (selling prices excluding trade and transport margins and taxes on products).
- Scope:
  - PPI covers mining and manufacturing, production and distribution of electricity and steam, natural gas and water supply.
  - Exclusions following EU recommendations: uranium mining, nuclear fuels, weapons and ammunitions, shipbuilding.
  - Agricultural product price indices produced and released separately and not incorporated in the PPI.
  - Some transport price indices calculated based on unit values.
  - Index relates to domestic market sales; exports are not included.
  - PPI excludes changes in stocks, own-account production for own final consumption, output for own-account fixed capital formation, illegal market goods, and certain services — consistent with common national PPI practice and EU regulations.
- Classification:
  - 1993 SNA followed for institutional units and transactions.
  - National Classification of Economic Activities (NCEA) complies with NACE Rev. 1 and is used to 4-digit level.
  - Product classification uses NACE, CPA and PRODCOM down to 10-digit level; an additional three digits added (total 13 digits) for unique product specification identification.
- Basis for recording:
  - Weights and prices valued at sales prices (ex-factory, ex-mine), excluding VAT and other taxes — valuation basis is basic prices.
  - Prices are actual transaction prices and include discounts, rebates, and other reductions; excise duties and VAT excluded.
  - Specific product precisely described when first selected and identified each month.
  - Recording on accrual basis: sales data recorded at time products are sold; price data relate to time of sales contract.
  - Transaction prices recorded as at the 15th day of each month where possible; otherwise at day of contract or sale.
  - PPI is a gross sector index; transactions between enterprises recorded on a gross basis; no netting procedures required.

### 3. Accuracy and reliability — Source data and data collection
- Sampling frames and registers:
  - Annual PRODCOM industry census used for selection of PRODCOM groups.
  - NSI Register of statistical units, EKPOU 96, used for selection of enterprises.
  - BULSTAT administrative register is main source for updating the business register; by law, all economic subjects must register in BULSTAT.
  - Business register covers all economic activities per NACE Rev. 1 and is updated from BULSTAT monthly and SBS annually.
- Weighting and survey sources:
  - Value of sales in PPI base year extracted from annual PRODCOM survey for index product weighting.
  - Source for activity weights is mandatory Annual Structural Business Statistics (SBS) survey conducted in accordance with EU Regulation 58/97; SBS is a census except for NACE classes 65.11, 65.21, 65.22, 65.23, and 66.02.
  - Both SBS and PRODCOM are included in the NPSS and participation is obligatory under article 20 of the Law on Statistics; Law includes provisions for fines.
- Response rates and nonresponse treatment:
  - Final overall average response rate in terms of turnover is about 95 percent.
  - For the industrial sector, the response rate is close to 100 percent.
  - Nonresponse follow-up: reminder letters citing fines, telephone interviews, visits; data for nonrespondents estimated using secondary sources, relationships from corresponding NACE activity and size category, or values from similar units.
- Quality checks and consistency:
  - Results analyzed at enterprise level; internal consistency checked by reference to ratios between variables and consistency with previous years.
  - Results cross-checked with other NSI surveys (PRODCOM, SBS, short-term surveys, International Trade).
- PPI survey design and coverage:
  - New transaction pricing methodology covers 83 percent of industrial sales; remaining 17 percent represented by old unit value methodology planned to be converted during 2003.
  - New survey uses a three-stage sampling process: PRODCOM groups, reporting units, then specific products/transactions.
  - Probability proportional to size techniques used; some strata selected with certainty (probability=1).
  - Questionnaires sent to about 2,000 enterprises.
  - Approximately 7,800 specification prices collected for about 850 product groups.
  - After selection, RSO qualified employee visits enterprise to select representative sample of products; purposive sampling used to choose high-sales, established products.
  - Producer price index aims to take account of quality changes due to physical characteristics or transaction characteristics.
  - Monthly mail questionnaire used for price collection; a new computer program for data entry and collection control was recently introduced.
- Alignment and timeliness:
  - Source data for weights and prices reasonably approximate PPI definition, scope, classification, valuation, and timing requirements.
  - NSI plans to commence compiling an export price index; field investigations show the 50 largest exporting enterprises account for 65 percent of total industrial exports.
  - Price collection schedule:
    - Mail questionnaires sent out before end of reference month by RSOs.
    - Deadline for response is the 20th of the reporting month.
    - RSOs check data; on the 25th of the reporting month data files sent to Central Statistical Office.
    - Data collection normally closed two days before publication.
  - Weighting and sampling source data available on a timely basis to support a five-year index reweighting program and maintenance of samples.

*https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2003/_cr03393.pdf*

### 3.2       Statistical       techniques

### _cr03393 - 3.2       Statistical       techniques

### 3.2.1 Data compilation employs sound statistical techniques
- The Industrial Producer Price Index measures the monthly change in prices of industrial products produced by Bulgarian enterprises and sold on the domestic market.
- Indices are calculated at the 10-digit PRODCOM level.
- Aggregated indices are produced at the group level (third digit), division level (second digit), and at section and subsection levels of NACE Rev. 1.
- Indices are calculated for Main Industrial Groupings (MIGS), following EU Regulation 586/2001 concerning short-term statistics.
- The PPIs are base-weighted (Laspeyres) indices weighted according to sales in the base year, which is currently 1995.
- PPIs are calculated at successive levels of aggregation with indices for each level based on the weighted arithmetic mean of indices from the level below.
- Weights of lower level indices are sourced from the PRODCOM survey; weights for PPIs at higher aggregation levels are based on the value of sales on the domestic market in the base period drawn from SBS survey results.
- The weight reference period will be updated every five years according to the EU Regulation 1165/98.
- The weights are currently over seven years old (based on 1995 data), and the NSI is in the process of changing the base year to year 2000 = 100.
- When new weights are introduced, the new index will be linked to the old index using internationally accepted techniques.
- For quality changes, four different methods are used for quality corrections in the new PPI system, depending upon the particular circumstances.
- Prices for temporarily missing products are handled by one of three methods:
  - (1) asking the enterprise to estimate the missing price,
  - (2) imputing the price based on the change in price of similar products, or
  - (3) repeating the last reported price.
- For seasonal products, product samples are selected to ensure some price data for each month of the year through close work with respondents; when unavailable, an imputation is made using the short-term price change from a matched sample of specifications from the same product group or enterprise.
- Note: "This is an area where more training and resources would improve results."

### 3.2.2 Other statistical procedures (data adjustments, transformations, analysis)
- The PPI covers mining, manufacturing, electricity, water, and gas and has very high coverage of the traditional industrial goods producing industries.
- Transaction pricing techniques are employed for the majority of the industry output (some 83 percent of the sales of the industrial enterprises).
- The remainder is measured by the old methodology using unit value indices, pending conversion to the new methodology over the next year.
- Other price indices compiled by the NSI for agricultural products (using transaction pricing methodology) and the transport sector (based on unit values) provide a significant increase in economic coverage.

### 3.3 Assessment and validation of source data
- Structural Business Statistics (SBS) and PRODCOM surveys have no sampling error impact because they are censuses.
- Principal activity of enterprises is observed and updated in the SBS survey so there is no significant misclassification impact.
- Small nonresponse rate errors vary depending on enterprise size and activity.
- Rigorous data editing concentrates on the largest enterprises; internal consistency is checked by analyzing ratios between variables and coherence with previous years’ results.
- Sampling and nonsampling errors are not available for the producer price survey because scientific sampling is not used.
- The response rate is nearly 100 percent.
- Missing prices are imputed using the techniques described in 3.2.1.
- Unusual movements in the PPI are investigated; large price changes (more than +/- 15 percent) are detected by computer editing and then queried with respondents and amended if necessary.
- RSO staff contact enterprises by phone to check representativeness of product specifications and obtain replacements if necessary.

### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs
- NSI experts regularly compare component PPI data by product or aggregation levels with relevant components or aggregates from other surveys such as the CPI, export and import price indices.
- Unusual movements in the index arising from large movements in particular sectors or from particular respondents are investigated during compilation.
- Unusual movements are not normally explained in descriptive documentation; however, they are explained to users as necessary.
- PPI indices at higher levels of aggregation are calculated directly as aggregations of product indices so there are no discrepancies in aggregates.

### 3.5 Revision studies
- The PPI data are normally final when first released, and revisions are rare and insignificant.
- There are no routine analyses of revisions; revisions may be caused by reporting or other errors discovered for previous months.
- Revision studies are completed following the 5-yearly PPI revision when new weights, industries, and products are introduced.

### 4. Serviceability

#### 4.1 Relevance
- Meetings are periodically convened with policymakers and other statistical users to review surveys and identify unmet demand.
- The PPI survey is included in the NPSS; NPSS is discussed by the High Statistical Council which includes main data users.
- The Methodological Council discusses methodologies of new or changed statistical surveys.
- Professional committees of experts from other statistical bodies, institutions, trade unions, etc., have been established to improve coordination and cooperation.
- The new methodology for PPI calculation was published in the NSI’s Statistics magazine.
- Producer price statistics experts regularly participate in meetings and seminars organized by Eurostat.

#### 4.2 Timeliness and periodicity
- Monthly producer price indices are available 40 days after the end of the reference month, which does not meet the SDDS standard of one month.
- Publication of the monthly indices was discontinued in 2001 pending the implementation of the new methodology.
- Users may obtain the PPI data and special tables from the Information Services Division of the NSI, upon request.
- As the new methodology has been largely implemented, the NSI proposes to shortly recommence publishing the PPI each month and release it on the NSI website.
- Producer price indices are calculated monthly and conform to the SDDS for periodicity.

#### 4.3 Consistency
- PPI by product and activity, and at different levels of aggregation, are consistent.
- In 1998, a new system was introduced for the calculation of the producer price index using the Laspeyres formula to replace the Paasche formula, with 1995 as the base year.
- Indices have been recalculated back to January 1995 on a consistent basis; users were informed of the new methodology.
- The PPI conforms with EU requirements and is broadly in line with deflators of industrial production and comparable components of the CPI.

#### 4.4 Revision policy and practice
- The PPI data are normally final when first released; routine revisions owing to misreporting are rare and very minor.
- Any changes to methodology resulting in retrospective recompilation of the series are announced to users in advance, and documentation of the changes is provided with the revised data series.
- Users are informed that data may be revised; revised data are disseminated with the same level of detail as previously published data.
- All differences between original and revised PPI data are analyzed; users are informed of causes of revisions to the price series.

### 5. Accessibility

#### 5.1 Data accessibility
- Publication of the monthly indices was discontinued in 2001 pending the implementation of new methodology.
- The data are not currently presented at the regular press conference nor released on the website.
- Users may obtain the PPI data and special tables from the Information Services Division of the NSI, upon request.
- The NSI proposes to recommence publishing the PPI each month, commencing in March 2003, and release it on the website.
- The producer price indices are available for users under a regular timetable; however, because they are not currently published, they are not listed in the annual calendar of data releases at present.
- The PPI is available, upon request; as it is not published or announced in the calendar, in practice access to all users is not simultaneous.
- With the permission of the President of the NSI, special tables and more detailed data can be obtained from the Information Services Division (subject to confidentiality rules).
- There are specific terms and conditions for dissemination of statistical products and services, including a price list, contained on the NSI website.

#### 5.2 Metadata accessibility
- The new “Methodology of the Producer Price Index on the Domestic Market” was published in the NSI Statistics Magazine in 2000.
- The GDDS summary methodologies are regularly reviewed and updated—the last update was in July 2002.
- Methodological notes are published in the “Statistical Yearbook” and in the “Statistical Reference Book.”

#### 5.3 Assistance to users
- The PPI is currently not published, but the NSI Information Services Division provides users with contact details where expert advice can be obtained.
- The catalog for NSI publications is available and updated every year; however, the PPI is not listed because it is not currently published.

*Source: _cr03393 - 3.2       Statistical       techniques*

### Section 5

### Section 5

### Public financial control and reporting (Articles 37, 40, 41, 49–51)
- Article 37
  - The Accounting Chamber shall monitor state budget implementation in accordance with the Law on the Accounting Chamber.
  - The National Assembly, the Council of Ministers, the Minister of Finance, the leaders of the ministries and other departments, and agencies of the tax and customs administrations shall monitor state budget implementation within their jurisdictions.
- Article 40
  - Primary budget credit managers shall compile periodic and annual reports on the cash implementation of their budgets using the complete budget classification, incorporating the reports of secondary budget credit managers.
  - The Ministry of Finance shall compile a report on state budget implementation using the complete budget classification on the basis of reports on the central budget, the judicial authorities, and primary budget credit managers certified by the Accounting Chamber.
  - The Ministry of Finance, in coordination with the Accounting Chamber, shall set forth procedures and deadlines for compiling and submitting the reports referred to in Paragraphs 1 and 2.
- Article 41
  - The annual report on state budget implementation on indicators approved for the year in question shall be reviewed by the Council of Ministers and submitted to the National Assembly.
  - The commission responsible for the budget shall in coordination with other standing commissions of the National Assembly, review the report on state budget implementation and make findings concerning it.
  - The Accounting Chamber shall submit to the National Assembly a paper on the state budget implementation report.
  - The National Assembly shall resolve to approve the state budget implementation report no later than the end of the next fiscal year.
- Article 49
  - Reports on extrabudgetary accounts and funds shall be prepared and submitted together with those on the implementation of corresponding budgets and budgetary accounts.
  - Reports on extrabudgetary accounts and funds shall be certified by the Accounting Chamber using certification procedures for reports on the implementation of state authority budgets.
  - Reports referred to in Paragraph 1 shall be submitted by the Minister of Finance to the Council of Ministers, which shall review and submit them to the National Assembly together with the state budget report.
- Article 50
  - Funds of others shall be collected, used and reported by state authorities and budget organizations using procedures set forth by the Minister of Finance and the Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank.
- Article 51
  - Extrabudgetary funds shall be monitored by the authorities, and using the procedures, established for the state budget.

### Resources (0.2)
- Staffing and capacity
  - The Fiscal Statistics and Accounting Division in the MOF Budget and Treasury Directorate comprises eight professional staff to develop Bulgaria’s GFS methodology and compile the general government statistics.
  - The Budget and Treasury Directorate overall contains approximately 40 staff to support these statistical efforts and to use the data for fiscal policy purposes.
  - The Government Debt Directorate comprises 20 staff to compile domestic and foreign debt statistics for the central government.
  - Two staff in the Fiscal Statistics and Accounting Division have been trained in the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001) or European Debt and Deficit methodologies.
  - Thus far none of the Debt Directorate staff have been nominated to training courses on the new methodology.
- Infrastructure and systems
  - Computer resources are adequate for data manipulation and storage; computer center services are outsourced.
  - Building facilities are adequate and are being refurbished.
  - More resources would speed the implementation and development of the GFSM 2001 and EU fiscal data reporting requirements.
- Resource-efficiency measures (0.2.2)
  - Costs of compiling fiscal statistics are not measured, but authorities report demonstrated greater efficiency in recent years.
  - Preparatory actions for EU accession include:
    - development of a new chart of accounts;
    - development of a new Financial Information Management System (FIMS);
    - preparation of changes in instructions for reporting agencies, methodological notes, and new accounting guidelines.
  - These developments support future implementation of GFSM 2001.

### Quality awareness (0.3)
- Quality focus (0.3.1)
  - MOF recognizes quality as foundational; data quality processes are official, developed by MOF staff, and instructions are signed by the Minister of Finance.
- Monitoring of collection, processing, dissemination (0.3.2)
  - Processes include instructions to reporting agencies, actions to deal with missing reports, verifications, cross-checks, and audits.
  - The “budget classification” chart of accounts is imposed by the MOF on reporting agencies.
  - The Organic Budget Law requires data to be reported and audited by the NAO.
  - The new Accountancy Law (2001) requires the MOF to develop requirements and guidelines for public sector units that are consistent with international accounting standards by the beginning of 2005.
  - User feedback arrangements were put in place on the Web in January 2003; MOF solicits feedback through feedback@minfin.government.bg and an online chat room advertising open communication with the Minister of Finance.
- Tradeoffs and planning (0.3.3)
  - Monthly data collected from reporting units is less detailed than quarterly reports, reflecting a trade-off between timeliness and the quality of detail.
  - Quarterly reports are more detailed, scrutinized against other sources (especially banking data) and audited by the NAO within 60 days.
  - Quality considerations guide statistical planning for EU notification and migration to GFSM 2001.

### Integrity (1)
- Professionalism (1.1)
  - The Fiscal Statistics and Accounting Division operates professionally; activities include publication of articles, participation in seminars and training, and training of reporting units on the new chart of accounts.
  - Quarterly data are audited by the NAO, which is independent from the executive branch; the National Assembly elects the NAO’s chairman and members.
  - Fiscal statisticians choose sources and methods without pressure and have classified privatization proceeds and net acquisition of financial assets with public corporations below-the-line, consistent with GFSM 1986 and ESA 95.
  - The Fiscal Statistics and Accounting Division provides expert advice on technical aspects of fiscal data and occasionally clarifies misinterpretations for users (such as rating agencies).
- Transparency (1.2)
  - The Organic Budget Law is publicly available and notes the terms and conditions for collection, processing, dissemination, audit, and approvals.
  - There is no internal governmental access to fiscal statistics prior to release, except as part of the publication process.
  - All MOF statistical publications and web data clearly indicate compilation by the MOF.
  - Notes on methodological changes accompany data on the MOF website; institutional tables on the website highlight structural changes affecting coverage.
- Ethical standards (1.3)
  - Staff behavior rules are governed by the Law for the Civil Servant (as amended SG 45/02), Article 25(1), the Law on Access to Public Information (July 7, 2000), and the Law on Protection of Classified Information (April 30, 2002).
  - MOF staff are well aware of rules concerning classified information.

### Methodological soundness (2)
- Concepts and definitions (2.1)
  - Bulgarian GFS concepts and definitions are based on A Manual on Government Finance Statistics, 1986 (GFSM 1986).
  - Authorities have not fully developed an explicit action plan to migrate to GFSM 2001, but have taken preparatory steps aligned with ESA 95 and EU accession requirements.
  - Key preparatory steps: development and planned implementation of a new unified chart of accounts and preliminary actions to develop a new Financial Management Information System (FMIS) for cash and accrual recording.
  - The new harmonized chart of accounts has not yet been linked to the EU notification table or GFSM 2001 codes, but considers recommendations of the 1999 IMF technical assistance and other international organizations.
- Scope (2.2)
  - Data are available on all cash transactions within the scope of GFS following GFSM 1986.
  - Two presentations of general government statistics are prepared: a national presentation and an international “GFS 1986 presentation.”
    - The national presentation follows the Bulgarian budget structure and explicitly shows coverage and consolidations.
    - The international “GFS 1986 presentation” uses the standard international framework and includes expenditure by function.
  - National presentation structure highlights:
    - “Republican Budget” includes: Central Budget; line ministries (33, also called first-line spending units) and agencies (second-line or sub-ministerial units); and the NAO.
    - “State Budget” adds budgets of the judiciary authorities to the “Republican Budget.”
    - Rest of central government includes social insurance schemes (the Pension Fund, the Industrial Injuries and Professional Illness Fund, the Common Illness and Maternity Fund, the Health Insurance Fund, and the Fund for Professional Qualification and Unemployment (FPQU)4), universities, the Bulgarian Academy of Science, Bulgarian National TV, Bulgarian National Radio (aggregated), and extra-budgetary funds and accounts.
    - Local governments: 263 municipalities and 5,078 communes; municipalities report on commune activities.
  - Coverage is identical for the international “GFS 1986 presentation” for central government, local governments, and consolidated general government.
  - No data are collected on the rest of the public sector for publication (in particular nonfinancial public corporations); consolidated nonfinancial public sector data are not compiled.
  - Depending on the year, certain funds may be recorded as extra-budgetary or as social security funds; rapid structural changes from privatizations have altered coverage over time and are reflected in institutional tables for each year.
  - The MOF Government Debt Directorate compiles and disseminates monthly consolidated central government gross debt (domestic and foreign by instrument), including the debt of social insurance schemes, in its Government Debt Management bulletin, and provides data on central government debt guarantees.
  - A coverage difference: the BNB treats purchases from the IMF as a liability of the BNB on-lent to Government (domestic financing in fiscal data), while the MOF Debt Directorate reports these transactions with the IMF as external debt.
  - Data on the stock of gross debt for local governments were not available historically; data collection began in 2003. Preliminary data as of the end of 2002 showed local government debt represented less than 0.2 percent of total central government debt.
  - Preliminary data submitted to the MOF and the NAO are replaced with audited data; submissions are generally timely, so there are no partial data requiring replacement with full-coverage data.
- Classification/sectorization (2.3)
  - Revenue, expenditure, and financing transactions are classified using GFSM 1986 methodology generally.
  - The Organic Budget Law (1996) requires a uniform budget classification approved by the Minister of Finance; this budget classification serves as the framework for the national presentation.
  - Some departures from GFSM 1986 exist in the national presentation:
    - Privatization receipts are included under financing rather than under net lending minus repayments.
    - Beginning in 2002, general government acquisition of financial assets and lending to nonfinancial corporations are classified as financing instead of net lending minus repayments (departures that are in line with GFSM 2001).
  - The international “GFS 1986 presentation” data include summary tables: revenue and grants; expenditure by economic classification and by functions; and financing (domestic and foreign). Further details on domestic and external financing flows are not disseminated.
  - Specialized publications exist on central government debt stocks; data are provided on central government gross debt by residency (foreign and domestic) of the counterparty and by instrument.

*italics: Section 5, _cr03393 - Section 5*

### 2.4 Basis for recording

### 2.4 Basis for recording

### Valuation and exchange rates
- Flows are valued on the basis of the amount of cash received (cash deposits) and cash payments made (cash withdrawals) consistent with GFSM 1986 guidelines.
- Domestic debt is valued on an issue price (cash received) basis (face value less discounts plus premia), which is not consistent with the GFSM 1986 recommendation to value debt at par (full redemption) value.
- Foreign debt is valued at full face value, regardless of discounts or premia, that is on the basis of cash due at maturity, consistent with the GFSM 1986.
- Amounts denominated in foreign currency are converted to national currency using the mid-point exchange rate between the buying and selling market rates on the date of the transaction. The exchange rates are provided by the BNB.

### Recording basis and noncash items
- Recording is done on a cash basis (GFSM 1986 guidelines): flows reflect cash deposits and cash withdrawals.
- Foreign and domestic central government debt stocks are recorded at issue price (face value less discounts or plus premiums), that is based on cash received.
- Little information is collected on noncash supplementary data, especially on arrears; nothing on arrears is disseminated.
- Noncash domestic debt is included (associated with the Law on Settlement of Nonperforming Credits negotiated prior to end-1990, so called ZUNK bonds).

### Planned systems and accounting standards
- The planned new FMIS will allow complete recording of budgetary transactions on an accrual as well as a cash basis.
- The new FMIS uses SAP R3 software and has been successfully piloted in two MOF units.
- The FMIS contains three modules: budget, accounting, and financial reporting.
- FMIS is targeted to apply initially to 39 budgetary units (all 33 front line ministries and six MOF second line directorates) and automatically collect monthly, quarterly, and annual budget and accounting data.
- On current plans, full implementation of the new FMIS will take several years, but it will support implementation of the GFSM 2001 and the data requirements for accession to the EU.
- New national accounting standards are to be developed to fulfill the requirements of the Accountancy Law (Nov. 16, 2001). The MOF must develop accounting standards and documentation rules for all general government units by January 1, 2005, consistent with international accounting standards (the International Public Sector Accounting Standards approved by the International Federation of Accountants).

### Grossing/netting procedures
- All transactions are shown on a gross basis, except for tax refunds and financing transactions, which are shown net, consistent with GFSM 1986.
- Fiscal data on the subsectors of the general government are recorded on a gross basis and intersectoral flows are eliminated in consolidation.

---

### 3 Accuracy and Reliability

### Source data coverage and timeliness
- Administrative systems provide data covering the full range of economic stocks and flows for central and local government units. Reporting is required under the Organic Budget Law, the Social Security Code, and the Law on Health Insurance.
- Reporting units use 10 different kinds of software packages in the Bulgarian government sector.
- Data are available to allow consolidation for both levels of government, as well as subsectors within the central government (social security and extra-budgetary units) and general government.
- Surveys are not needed because information is provided through administrative sources.

- Most central government units report their data 12 days after the end of the reference month, but local governments and some second-line central government units report data within 15−20 days.
- This allows monthly budget execution reports to be prepared approximately 20−25 days after the reference month.
- The MOF receives more detailed data quarterly from reporting units within one month of the end of the reference quarter.
- The BNB collects information on the cash balances of all general government units and provides this information to the MOF twice per month.
- Flash reports on cash execution for the general government are compiled two times per month (on the 17th and at the end of the month following the reference month).
- The BNB also provides cash balance data to the MOF quarterly.
- Central government debt data are submitted by the 5th of the month after the reference month, and the data are finalized by the 10th of the month.

### Source data quality and limitations
- All general government units report according to the national “budget classification,” and a bridge table converts the “budget classification” to the “national presentation” and to the international “GFS 1986 presentation,” allowing automatic derivation of GFS items from budget items.
- Accounting standards are delineated in the Accounting Act (2001), the Excise Tax Act and Value-Added Tax Act.
- Currently data are reported on a cash basis and are reported by all government units each month on a cumulative, rather than a discrete, basis. Monthly data are derived as a residual, preventing distinction between revisions to previous months’ data and flows that occurred during the latest month.
- No need to estimate missing data; the MOF contacts late reporters by phone to obtain submissions.
- Suspect submissions or discrepancies are investigated and resolved, frequently through telephone contacts.

### Assessment, validation, and audits
- Systematized assessments of late reporting, suspect submissions, and discrepancies are assessed periodically. Persistent difficulties are addressed through regular follow-up or on-the-job training.
- There is a balance between accuracy and timeliness: unaudited monthly data are reported within one month of the reference month; quarterly data are audited by the NAO and inaccuracies are addressed within 2½ months of the reference quarter.
- Quarterly data are audited by the NAO, but quarterly corrections are typically small and are not disseminated to the public.
- Fiscal data reported by the BNB, NSI, and the Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting are fully consistent with the MOF data.
- Financing data are checked and validated with BNB data on government deposits, the issue of domestic securities, and sources of external financing (bonds and loans).
- The MOF fiscal data are cross-checked against information from tax and customs administrations.
- Any discrepancies are resolved by the Fiscal Statistics and Accounting Division of the MOF with the providing agency, usually via phone or email, but occasionally through formal letters.
- Significant discrepancies are identified; the quarterly data are reviewed and validated by the NAO. The MOF and the NAO investigate any discrepancies on a quarterly basis.

### Revision practices and documentation
- Data are reported cumulatively, so errors and omissions are typically captured in the latest month’s data. There are no revisions to the published data.
- Revision studies are not conducted, and corrections made during the compilation process are not systematic or thoroughly documented.
- Quarterly audits do not lead to systematic revisions of cumulative data for the quarter; material corrections are not fully documented (main aspects of source data leading to corrections, reasons, direction and magnitude are not always recorded).
- The process to review and assess corrections is not formal, documented, or systematic. Audits and periodic feedback lead to improvements through on-the-job training and contacts with MOF fiscal data compilers.

---

### 4 Serviceability

### Relevance and user needs
- The international “GFS 1986 presentation” is derived from the national presentation and both are used in determining and evaluating fiscal policy.
- GFS data are used primarily by the international community (IMF, World Bank) and international rating agencies. The national presentation is used primarily in Bulgaria.
- Monthly fiscal data are available in sufficient detail for assessing government performance, but greater public detail could be provided on financing and expenditure by function (currently only aggregates are available in the international “GFS 1986 presentation”).
- Migration to GFSM 2001 and the EU Deficit and Debt Guide would enhance policy relevance and analytical information.
- Feedback from users is not sought regularly; the MOF website contains email addresses and phone contacts for feedback.

### Timeliness and periodicity
- In principle, central government operations data are published approximately within one month after the reference month. Publication of monthly data on the Web began in January 2003.
- The monthly MOF budget bulletin is disseminated about one month after the reference month; historically (prior to January 2003) no monthly data were available on the website.
- Monthly central government debt stocks are available three weeks after the reference month, exceeding the SDDS requirement that quarterly central government debt data be disseminated within one quarter after the reference period.
- Annual general government operations data are normally presented to the NAO on the 24th of January, and the NAO issues its report in mid-February. Preliminary annual data normally would be published in March following the reference year.
- Monthly and annual central and general government data following the national presentation, and monthly, quarterly, and annual data following the international “GFS 1986 presentation” have been available on the MOF website since January 2003.
- Monthly central government debt stock data are disseminated monthly, and annual data are disseminated annually. Monthly debt stocks simultaneously provide the information to create a quarterly series, exceeding SDDS requirements.

### Consistency within and across datasets
- Fiscal statistics are fully internally consistent: deficits/surpluses equal financing (except the subsector of general government in the “GFS 1986 presentation” which is reported on a consolidated basis); major aggregates equal the sum of their components; expenditure by function equals expenditure by economic classification; interest expenditure is identical in both sets of tables; transfers paid equal transfers received; domestic financing is reconcilable with changes in domestic debt (differences mainly due to zero coupon bonds measured at issue price, revaluations, and noncash “ZUNK” bonds); and foreign financing is reconcilable with foreign debt.
- Financing differs from the debt statistics due to the misclassification of IMF purchases in the debt statistics (recorded as foreign rather than domestic lending from the BNB, see below).
- Monthly data are fully consistent with quarterly and annual data but are reported on a cumulative basis; subannual data therefore do not represent activity that took place during the month (or quarter) because errors and revisions are captured in the latest month’s (quarter’s) data reported.
- Structural changes in the economy (e.g., units moving from government to public or private sectors and significant privatizations) have affected coverage over time. Institutional tables for 1992−2001 and other metadata on the website signal these changes.

### Reconciliation with other frameworks and key differences
- In general the fiscal data are not formally reconciled with the national accounts, monetary, or balance of payments statistics, but in principle such reconciliations should be possible and validation and cross-checks support consistency.
- General government sector data in the national accounts are based on MOF data and are internally consistent.
- The BNB provides information twice a month and quarterly on all general government units’ deposits in the BNB and commercial banks, and supplies information on its activities as an agent of the government to issue domestic securities (Treasury bills and bonds). External financing is extracted from the BNB database using Reuters software.
- Differences across data sets frequently result from structural changes not yet fully reconciled, but cross-checks resolve these differences.

- Major differences between fiscal and monetary datasets:
  - The BNB considers purchases from the IMF as a liability of the BNB, on-lent to the government through domestic financing. The MOF erroneously records these transactions with the IMF as external debts. An adjustment is made so that external financing excludes these transactions and domestic financing reflects the on-lending from the BNB.
  - Valuation differences: the BNB reflects government debt at market prices, while the MOF records debt at cash value (issue price for domestic debt and maturity value for external debt).

### Revision policy and preliminary data
- Revision policy and practice are not publicly disseminated.
- Quarterly data submitted in more detail than monthly reports are vetted thoroughly using cross-checks with BNB data and audit procedures, so data for the last month of the quarter are preliminary when reported and disseminated within roughly one month; however this is not done.
- There are no regular, well-established, and transparent schedules for revisions concerning government domestic debt statistics. Foreign debt statistics are revised to take late submissions into account, but these practices are not made known to the public.
- Preliminary data are not separately distinguished. Foreign debt revisions are not clearly labeled in publications.
- In general, preliminary data are sufficiently close to final data in most cases for policy determination and analysis.
- There are no revision studies or analyses made public.

*Source: _cr03393 - 2.4 Basis for recording*

### 5.         Accessibility

### 5.         Accessibility

### 5.1 Data accessibility

- The refreshed website (as of January 2003) contains the international “GFS 1986 presentation” and the national presentation of fiscal data and recent time series; it also contains a hyper-link to older data (http://www2.minfin.government.bg).
- Most fiscal data are presented to allow major aggregates and balancing items to be identified and related to detailed underlying data.
- Two major exceptions in presentation: details on financing and on expenditure by function are not fully available.
- The national presentation is used mainly to monitor budget implementation and to formulate future fiscal policy.

- Dissemination media and formats:
  - MOF disseminates two monthly publications:
    - monthly budget bulletin in hardcopy only
    - Government Debt Management in hardcopy and on the MOF website
  - Annual publication:
    - Annual Review of the Government Debt in hardcopy and on the MOF website
  - BNB (Monthly Bulletin) and the Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting reproduce some data.
  - BNB also disseminates hardcopies of the monthly Government Securities Market (domestic debt stock information).
  - As of January 2003, MOF website contains more timely fiscal data in both national and “GFS 1986 presentation”; maintenance with current data remains to be tested.
  - BNB website contains the fiscal data disseminated in its hardcopy publications.

- Release schedule and timeliness:
  - There are no advanced release calendars for fiscal data.
  - Annual data using the national presentation are prepared in March and are typically approved by the Council of Ministers for submission to the National Assembly by end-June.
  - Organic Budget Law Article 41(4) states: “The National Assembly shall resolve to approve the state budget implementation report no later than the end of the next fiscal year.”
  - This was not done for the data concerning 2001.
  - To meet SDDS requirements authorities would need to disseminate the annual data approved by the Council of Ministers; data could be revised following National Assembly approval.
  - Monthly bulletins are usually released about one month after the reference period.
  - There is no explicit calendar of release dates for fiscal data.

- Equal access:
  - Statistics are made available to all users at the same time through hardcopy and web formats.
  - No prior release or preferential access occurs.

- Nonpublished subaggregates:
  - Nonpublished but nonconfidential information is provided via email or hardcopy without charge.
  - Availability and terms under which nonpublished but nonconfidential data are made available have not been publicized in GFS publications.
  - MOF website contact section notes users can obtain additional budget information (including historical fiscal data) via contact by email or phone.

### 5.2 Metadata accessibility

- Documentation:
  - Broad statements on concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, and differences from international standards are annotated (on the website and GDDS only).
  - An elaborate document on concepts, sources, and methods has not been compiled.
  - Bridge tables showing links between “budget classification” (chart of accounts) and fiscal presentations are made available on request; universities and international organizations have requested and received this information (rarely).

- Levels of detail:
  - Only broad statements on concepts, sources, and methods are available; more detailed metadata have not been requested by users and have not been developed.
  - Less detailed metadata accompany the data (on the Web) to orient users concerning the basic framework.

### 5.3 Assistance to users

- Contact persons and responsiveness:
  - The GDDS and MOF websites list contact persons for fiscal data; users can write to a designated MOF official or directly to budget@minfin.government.bg.
  - Prompt and knowledgeable service is available from the Fiscal Statistics and Accounting Division, Budget and Treasury Directorate, and the Government Debt Directorate, although not widely announced.
  - In most instances users are directed to contact the MOF Information and Public Relations Directorate to coordinate queries (feedback@minfin.government.bg or by phone in Sofia, Bulgaria on (02) 98.59.20.24).
  - No officer in the MOF has been designated to provide a rapid response to the misuse of fiscal data; senior staff in listed units would attempt to correct errors by users, when noticed.

- Catalogs and charges:
  - MOF does not have a separate catalog of publications.
  - The monthly budget bulletin can be obtained via subscription; subscription price and contact address information is available on the MOF website (http://www.minfin.government.bg/en/act/index.php?lang=2&catid=426&depth=1).
  - MOF website browsers can subscribe to MOF news items online.

### Key points from the Data Quality Assessment Framework (Table 4) related to Accessibility

- Summary assessments (compiling agency: Ministry of Finance):
  - Element 5.1 Data accessibility: LNO (Practice Largely Not Observed)
    - Comment: More data should be disseminated than currently appear on the web. ARCs not disseminated.
  - Element 5.2 Metadata accessibility: LO (Practice Largely Observed)
    - Comment: Detailed concepts, sources, and methods documentation has not been prepared.
  - Element 5.3 Assistance to users: O (Practice Observed)

*Source: 5. Accessibility (sections 5.1–5.3) from _cr03393 - 5.         Accessibility*

### 1.2       Transparency

### 1.2       Transparency

### Transparency of statistical practices (1.2.1–1.2.4)
- Documents detailing the methodology for collecting, processing, and disseminating monetary statistics are posted on the BNB website and are included in its publications. The various legal instruments underpinning BNB’s statistical activity are also posted on its website.
- There is no internal government access to BNB’s monetary statistics prior to their release.
- All BNB publications and the BNB website clearly identify the BNB as the data-producing agency. Data obtained from other agencies (e.g., MOF, NSI) are clearly identified. After dissemination through the website or publications, BNB-produced statistics can be quoted or reproduced without further permission; due acknowledgement is requested.
- The BNB’s policy is that major methodological changes are announced in advance. New data first appear in the weekly publication and then in the monthly bulletins. Dissemination of data and announcements of methodological changes are first made through the BNB’s website and later in the hard-copy monthly publications.
- Following a major revision in early 2002, monetary statistics were disseminated in two formats—the old and the new—for a period of three months.

### Ethical standards (1.3.1)
- Guidelines for BNB staff behavior are specified in the BNB’s Rules of Procedures and are available on an internal BNB website.
- New employees are briefed on these rules and responsibilities by the Human Resources Directorate.
- In accordance with the Law on BNB (Article 23(1)), when taking office, BNB employees sign a declaration of oath to observe this law, maintain data confidentiality, and dutifully perform the functions entrusted in connection with the BNB’s activities.

### 2.       Methodological soundness

### Concepts and definitions (2.1.1)
- The concepts and definitions used by the BNB for compiling monetary statistics conform with the IMF’s Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM).
- The monthly monetary survey compiled by the BNB (the Monetary Survey table) is equivalent to the MFSM’s depository corporations/broad money survey and presents measures of liquidity and counterparts with comprehensive detail by economic sector and financial instrument.
- Measures of liquidity: narrow money (M1), narrow money plus quasi-money (M2), and broad money (M3), each disaggregated by constituent financial instruments.
  - Narrow money M1 = currency outside banks + demand (transferable) deposits in leva.
  - Quasi-money = time, savings, and all foreign currency deposits of the nonbank, noncentral government sectors.
  - M2 = M1 + quasi-money.
  - M3 (national definition) = narrow money + quasi-money + restricted deposits and other funds mobilized by banks from resident nonbank, nongovernment sectors, namely debt securities issued and loans (“deposits”).
- BNB shows banks’ positions in leva and foreign currency on all financial instruments.
- The Monetary Survey is derived by consolidating accounts of the central bank and other depository corporations (ODCs). Monthly BNB and ODC surveys contain comprehensive sectoral and instrument detail. Monthly sectoral balance sheets are compiled in matrix format showing positions with resident and nonresident economic sectors by financial instrument.
- A monthly analytical survey and sectoral balance sheet are prepared for nonoperating banks (banks in liquidation) in the same detailed format.

### Scope (2.2.1)
- The scope of the depository corporations/broad money survey is consistent with MFSM principles and presents positions of all resident depository corporations vis-à-vis other sectors and nonresidents.
- The depository corporations sector covers the BNB and all resident ODCs, consisting of all commercial banks licensed by the BNB (domestic headquarters and branches of foreign banks).
- As of end-December 2002, there were four banks in liquidation (nonoperating banks) whose total assets were approximately 0.2 percent of the commercial banks’ total assets. These four banks, whose banking licenses have been revoked, are excluded from the coverage of the broad money survey (consistent with the ECB’s framework).
- A separate survey of nonoperating banks (the Analytical Reporting of Nonoperating Banks table) with comprehensive sectoral and instrument detail is compiled and published in the BNB’s monthly Monetary Statistics Bulletin and the general BNB Monthly Bulletin.
- At present there are no other (nonbank) financial institutions (e.g., money market funds) that meet criteria for ODCs in issuing liabilities that are close substitutes for deposits.

### Classification / sectorization (2.3.1)
- Sectoral and instrument classification is broadly consistent with MFSM principles. The distinction between domestic and external transactors is based on the definition of residents in the Foreign Exchange Law (1999):
  - Residents: (a) physical persons permanently residing in Bulgaria or having a permit to stay in the country for more than six months; (b) legal persons registered in Bulgaria; (c) physical persons (and their families) staying abroad on a mission of the Bulgarian state or Bulgarian enterprises. All others are nonresidents.
  - This definition broadly conforms with the residency principle based on center of economic interest discussed in BPM5.
- Legal persons are considered residents upon registration. The NSI maintains BULSTAT and is responsible for sectoral classification in conformity with ESA 95 standards.
- When a client opens a bank account, the account number includes codes identifying economic sector and financial instrument.
- Resident sectors/subsectors identified (codes refer to 1993 SNA/ESA 95):
  - Financial sector S.12: central bank S.121, other depository corporations S.122 (licensed commercial banks), and nonbank financial institutions/other financial corporations (other financial intermediaries S.123, financial auxiliaries S.124, insurance corporations and pension funds S.125). (Subsectors S.123, S.124, and S.125 will be separately identified starting in 2004.)
  - General government S.13: budgetary and extrabudgetary central government S.1311, budgetary and extrabudgetary local governments S.1313, and social security funds S.1314.
  - Nonfinancial corporations S.11: public S.11001 and private S.11002 and S.11003.
  - Households S.14.
  - Nonprofit institutions serving households (NPISH) will be separately identified as sector S.15 starting in 2004.
- Recognized financial instruments: monetary gold, SDRs, currency, deposits (demand, time, savings, restricted), credits (“loans”), securities other than shares, shares and other equity, and debt securities issued (as defined by ECB regulations). Accounts payable/receivable are included in other assets/liabilities per ECB regulations.
- Positions are disaggregated by national/foreign currency. Credit aggregates present an “other” position capturing certain historical positions prior to the accounting reform in June 1995 and accrued interest on these positions.
- Supplementary table on BNB foreign assets and liabilities contains data on Bulgaria’s financial relationship with the IMF, including Reserve Position in the Fund and the Use of Fund Credit (Liabilities to the IMF, Credits). Shares and other equity component of Other Foreign Assets includes data on the quota paid in leva; Liabilities to the IMF, Other aggregate includes positions on the IMF No.1 account. Inclusion of these positions may be redundant and on the gross level would amount to double-counting. The BNB will implement requisite revisions for the December 2002 issue of the Monetary Statistics Bulletin to be published at the end of January 2003.
- Repurchase agreements are treated as collateralized loans rather than outright sales of securities. Starting in January 2003, liability positions arising from repurchase agreement operations are separately identified. Nonnegotiable instruments with all other properties of securities other than shares are classified as credits (loans).
- Prior to January 2003, banks’ positions on financial derivatives were off-balance-sheet (relatively small). Starting in January 2003, in line with IAS, positions on financial derivatives are included in balance sheets and in monetary statistics are classified in other assets/liabilities (per ECB regulations). Starting in January 2004, these data will be disaggregated by currency and sector of the counterparty as recommended in MFSM.

### Basis for recording (2.4)
- Market prices are used to value flows and stocks. The Bulgarian Accountancy Law (November 2001) prescribes all financial assets and liabilities be reported at market price; when market price is unavailable, a fair value must be calculated and used.
- Valuation at market price or fair value applies to all financial instruments except currency and coins, deposits, loans, and capital and reserves, which are maintained at book value (conforming with MFSM).
- The book value of loans and deposits denominated in foreign currency is converted into leva using the official exchange rate (along with relevant daily cross rates) prevailing on the balance sheet date. The official exchange rate is also used for conversion of all other foreign-currency-denominated positions into BGN for the end-period balance sheet. The valuation adjustment is included in the Financial Result account (part of Capital and Reserves); the valuation adjustment is not separately identified. Nonfinancial assets are carried at acquisition cost.
- Monetary gold valuation: Article 28(6) of the Law on BNB prescribes monetary gold be valued at DM 500 per troy ounce and, since January 2002, at BGN 500 per troy ounce or the market price whichever is lower. Commodity gold is valued at market prices.
- Recording is done on an accrual basis. Article 4(1) of the Bulgarian Accountancy Law prescribes recognition of accruing interest. In monetary statistics, accruing interest is incorporated in the outstanding position on the underlying instrument, as recommended by MFSM. Accrual of interest in the balance sheets stops on instruments that are 90 days past due in service. Detailed data on accrued interest and interest arrears are presented in memorandum items tables in the BNB bulletins.
- Financial transactions are recorded on the settlement date (in line with the ECB’s guidelines), which may marginally differ from the change of ownership date as recommended in MFSM.
- Grossing/netting procedures: source data are collected on a gross basis per MFSM. Claims on clients are not netted against liabilities to that client. Provisions (including loan loss provisions) are classified in Other liabilities.
- Within central bank, ODC, and broad money surveys, stock data are aggregated into major analytic categories with component data by economic sector and financial instrument shown.
- The ODC survey includes gross claims on and gross liabilities to banks in other assets and other liabilities; these interbank positions can be netted to conform with MFSM consolidation recommendations because interbank positions are clearly and separately identified.
- Within the broad money survey, data on the financial relationship between BNB and commercial banks are consolidated and the net amount is separately identified in other items net. Whenever net monetary aggregates are shown (e.g., net foreign assets or claims on general government net of central government deposits), the underlying gross data are also presented.

*Source: _cr03393 - 1.2       Transparency (PDF)._

### 3. Accuracy and Reliability

### _cr03393 - 3. Accuracy and Reliability

### Source data
- Source: central bank (BNB) and commercial banks' complete balance sheets reported to the BNB; detailed 4-digit balance sheet accounts constitute source data for monetary statistics.
- Coverage and classification:
  - Source data provide classification by financial instrument, economic sector of counterparty, currency of denomination, and maturity.
  - Information from the BNB’s Banking Supervision Department and other sources used for validation and cross-checking only.
- Reporting system developments:
  - A new commercial banks reporting system to be implemented in 2004 to fully implement the ECB’s framework for monetary data and meet MFSM requirements.
- Monitoring of financial sector changes:
  - Key sources (Banking Supervision Department, financial press) are monitored.
  - Evolution of money market funds is followed to capture them in monetary statistics coverage when relevant.
- Timeliness of source records:
  - BNB end-week balance sheet: available on a Monday following the week’s end.
  - Weekly commercial banks’ aggregated balance sheet: available on the second business day following the week’s end.
  - BNB monthly balance sheet: available on the first business day following the month’s end.
  - Aggregated commercial banks’ monthly balance sheet: available on the 15th calendar day following the month’s end.
  - Reporting: electronic via a secure network; BNB follows up immediately on reporting delays.

### Statistical techniques
- Data collection and aggregation:
  - Commercial banks report via a VPN interbank electronic system on the same set of 4-digit balance sheet accounts; structure is uniform across reporters.
  - Aggregation is performed electronically and is robust.
- Adjustments and transformations:
  - Balance sheet data are not subject to statistical adjustments.
  - Seasonal adjustment is performed on certain monetary aggregates for internal analytical purposes only; seasonally-adjusted aggregates are not part of officially published monetary statistics (may be published if proven analytically valuable).

### Assessment and validation of source data
- Validation procedures:
  - Preliminary checks and an automatic error-check log generated when balance sheet data are first reported.
  - Follow-up queries by MBSD and the Banking Supervision Department to resolve issues.
  - Growth rates for all positions calculated, including interbank positions for each commercial bank; interbank positions verified across banks.
- Use of auxiliary systems:
  - ISMS (Information System for Monetary Statistics) under development to provide additional verification checks and enable a coding system similar to GESMES for reporting.

### Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs
- Cross-checks and reconciliation:
  - Internal consistency checks tied to double-entry bookkeeping structure.
  - Cross-checks against data reported to the Banking Supervision Department and on interbank positions.
  - Banks’ positions with nonresidents are provided to the Balance of Payments and External Debt Division for BOP compilation to foster consistency.
  - Detailed weekly and monthly government position data provided to MOF for verification; consultations held to resolve discrepancies.
- Investigation of anomalies:
  - MBSD identifies anomalous behavior (e.g., unusual growth patterns) in detailed monetary accounts and contacts banks to investigate.
  - Procedures for consultations with MOF to address issues between monetary statistics and fiscal data.
- Authoritative sources:
  - Banks’ balance sheet records reported to the BNB are considered authoritative for BOP accounts and for validating MOF fiscal data compiled from central government spending units.

### Revision studies
- Policy:
  - Monthly monetary statistics use final balance sheet data of the BNB and commercial banks.
  - Revision studies undertaken when methodological changes affect the compilation system.
- Example:
  - Revision implemented in March 2002: excluded positions of nonoperating banks from data starting in December 1997; internal analysis carried out.
- Magnitude and frequency:
  - Revisions to correct erroneous data tend to be of small magnitude and rarely affect major aggregates; consequently no routine revision studies are undertaken beyond those tied to methodological changes.

### Serviceability — Relevance, Timeliness, Periodicity, Consistency, Revision practice
- Relevance and user engagement:
  - Periodic consultations with BNB Research and Treasury Directorates, MOF, NSI, and advisory groups including commercial bank representatives.
  - MBSD staff participate in ECB and IMF meetings and seminars to observe methodological developments and share experiences.
- Timeliness and periodicity:
  - Detailed monthly central bank survey and broad money/depository corporations’ survey: disseminated within one month following the end of the reference month.
  - Weekly main aggregates (central bank and broad money survey): disseminated within five days following the end of the reference week.
  - Weekly dissemination within five days meets and exceeds SDDS timeliness guideline for analytical accounts of central bank and banking sector.
  - SDDS monthly periodicity guideline for analytical accounts of central bank and banking sector observed; weekly main aggregates are more frequent and more aggregated than monthly accounts.
- Internal consistency and reconcilability:
  - BNB depository liabilities to commercial banks (central bank survey) are broadly consistent with commercial banks’ depository claims on the BNB (ODC survey).
  - Twelve months to November 2002: deviations of commercial banks’ positions are between 10−15 percent of corresponding positions in central bank survey (and are approximately 2 percent of reserve money).
  - Differences in BNB claims on banks vs. commercial banks’ liabilities explained by inclusion of nonoperating banks in BNB claims; since March 2002 differences can be explained by nonoperating banks’ survey data; most disputed claims written off effective January 2003 with expectation of close symmetry starting January 2003.
  - Methodological changes: data revised as far back as available detailed information permits (example: March 2002 revision carried back to 1997).
- Consistency with other systems:
  - Monetary statistics broadly consistent with BOP and government finance statistics; differences attributed to valuation methods (end-period prices/exchange rates in monetary statistics vs. transaction-date prices/exchange rates in BOP; market prices plus accrued interest in monetary statistics vs. “cash” value in government finance data).
- Revision policy and identification:
  - Only final data used for monthly compilations; preliminary data used only for weekly statistics for the last week of the year.
  - Revisions made to correct erroneous data or upon implementation of changes in accounting standards or statistical methodology; these events do not follow a regular schedule.
  - Historical revisions are clearly marked by symbol R; preliminary data are marked by symbol P; weekly publication announces revisions first since weekly precedes monthly.
  - Internal analysis of the March 2002 revision was carried out; no additional public revision studies are undertaken due to small magnitude of typical corrections.

### Accessibility — Data accessibility and metadata
- Presentation and user-oriented formats:
  - Monetary statistics published in the BNB Monthly Bulletin and the BNB’s monthly Monetary Statistics Bulletin with charts accompanying tables in the general Bulletin.
  - Monthly statistics presented as time series for past 13 months; sectoral balance sheets presented in matrix format for a specific month.
  - Extensive supplementary tables (e.g., breakdown by instrument maturity, detailed sector positions) and comprehensive memorandum item tables included.
  - Seasonally adjusted monetary aggregates under development; macroeconomic analysis in semiannual and annual reports; analysis of monetary developments to be included on the BNB website, monthly Monetary Statistics Bulletin, and weekly publication.
  - Weekly Statistical Data on Selected Balance Sheet Indicators provides condensed data on main credit and monetary aggregates and interest rates with abbreviated methodological notes.
- Dissemination media, schedule, and access:
  - Weekly Statistical Data: published five business days after reporting period.
  - Monthly Monetary Statistics Bulletin: published not later than 30 days after reporting period.
  - General BNB Monthly Bulletin: issued 45 days after reporting period.
  - Annual report for reporting year usually published at the beginning of May of the following year; semiannual report published in November of the current year.
  - Publications released simultaneously to all subscribers and posted on the BNB’s website at http://www.bnb.bg.
  - Since June 1999, weekly and monthly data from 1995 onward are available for downloading free of charge on the BNB’s website; users can retrieve data by user-specified time period, data series, and periodicity.
- Preannounced schedule and equal access:
  - Monetary statistics released according to a preannounced schedule published in the General Methodological Notes of the monthly Monetary Statistics Bulletin and on the Press Office page of the BNB’s website.
  - Data released simultaneously to all users; no privileged or insider access provided (agency-specific data exchanged only as part of validation processes).
- Nonpublished subaggregates:
  - All nonconfidential monetary data are published; no additional nonconfidential subaggregates are provided upon request.
- Metadata availability:
  - Monetary statistics metadata (concepts, scope, classifications, data sources, definitions) available in the GDDS information pages on Bulgaria on the IMF’s DSBB/GDDS bulletin board and regularly reviewed and updated; accessible via hyperlink from the BNB’s website.
  - Detailed methodological notes (general compilation methodology and table-by-table notes) included in the general BNB Monthly Bulletin and the monthly Monetary Statistics Bulletin (weekly publication contains abbreviated notes).
  - A comprehensive methodological document prepared for inclusion in the ECB’s Methodological Manual for the Accession Countries (last update provided for the December 2002 issue) discusses coverage, classification, valuation, derivation procedures, and identifies deviations from the ECB’s framework where applicable.
- Levels of detail for audiences:
  - Monthly Monetary Statistics Bulletin includes a one-page condensed broad money survey (Short Monetary Survey table) and tabular summaries on monetary base and counterpart sources, money multipliers, and measures of money supply.

*Source: _cr03393 - 3. Accuracy and Reliability*

### 5.3 Assistance to users

### 5.3 Assistance to users

### 5.3.1 Contact person for each subject field is publicized
- Prompt and knowledgeable support is available to users of monetary statistics.
- The email address to reach MBSD contact persons is mbstatistics@bnbank.org.
- Contacts’ telephone numbers are posted on the BNB’s website.
- In 2003, a FAQ (frequently asked questions) document concerning monetary statistics will be published on the BNB’s website.
- A dedicated interorganizational group of experts from MBSD and the commercial banks has been set up to discuss methodological issues related to data quality.
- Documents explaining the project to improve quality of monetary statistics and the implementation of major requirements set by the ECB from January 2004 onward are posted on the BNB’s website.
- An e-mail address (mbstatistics@bnbank.org) is provided for users’ comments.

### 5.3.2 Catalogs of publications, documents, and other services, including information on any charges, are widely available
- A catalog of publications, documents, and other services to users is available on the BNB’s website.
- The prices of the statistical products and services are clearly disclosed.
- Assistance is provided in placing the orders.

### Data Quality Assessment—Accessibility: Assistance to users
- Assessment element 5.3 Assistance to users: O (Practice Observed).
- The Data Quality Assessment Framework table lists Accessibility 5.1 Data accessibility = O; 5.2 Metadata accessibility = O; 5.3 Assistance to users = O.

*Source: _cr03393 - 5.3 Assistance to users — https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2003/_cr03393.pdf*

### 1.2       Transparency

### 1.2       Transparency

### Transparency of statistical practices and dissemination
- The terms and conditions under which statistics are collected, processed, and disseminated are adequately made available to the public on the BNB Internet site.
- Government prerelease access:
  - Reference to prerelease access by the MOF and other government agencies is made only on the Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) Internet pages for Bulgaria; no other reference is made in BNB hard copy or electronic dissemination.
  - Government agencies, primarily the MOF, receive balance of payments statistics 24 hours before the public dissemination of the information.
- Identification of statistical products:
  - Statistical products are clearly identified in press releases and subsequent dissemination documents.
  - The BNB press office requests attribution when data are used or reproduced (noted on page 2 of the BNB Monthly Bulletin).
- Advance notice of major methodological changes:
  - The BNB provides advance notice in the BNB Monthly Bulletin two months before it introduces changes in methodology.
  - The main reasons for statistical changes are made clear to users.

### Ethical standards
- Guidelines for staff behavior:
  - Specified in the BNB Rules of Procedures and are well known.
  - BNB staff have access via the BNB Intranet.
  - The Rules of Procedures are used for orientation of new employees by the BNB’s Human Resources Directorate.

---

### 2. Methodological Soundness

### 2.1 Concepts and definitions
- Overall framework:
  - Balance of payments statistics are compiled in line with the Balance of Payments Manual, fifth edition (BPM5).
- Noted departures from BPM5:
  - Simultaneous use of two distinct residency criteria in the collection of balance of payments source data.29
  - Foreign exchange deposits of resident households with resident commercial banks are erroneously included in balance of payments statistics.30

### 2.2 Scope
- General scope:
  - In principle, Bulgaria’s balance of payments cover all transactions of residents vis-à-vis the rest of the world.
- Undercoverage issues:
  - A large number of items are seriously undercovered, chiefly shuttle trade and travel services.
  - IMF technical assistance report in 2000 noted the magnitude of shuttle trade requires serious assessment; no resources allocated and no subsequent adjustment made to trade data.
  - In 2000 the BNB envisaged establishing a working group with NSI and other interested parties to assess shuttle trade; no progress had been made as of the report.
  - Authorities acknowledged deficiencies in trade data were critically impeding further harmonization work for EU accession.
- Travel services:
  - Source data mostly based on surveys conducted among travel agencies.
  - Surveys are in principle annual; actual surveys occurred only in 1999 and 2001.
  - Data were collected from about 100 travel agencies, for a total coverage of an estimated 75 percent of the sector for the 2001 survey.
  - No supplementary information is collected from foreign currency bureaus on foreign exchange to estimate cash transactions by tourists; current compilation techniques likely underestimate travel receipts.

### 2.3 Classification/sectorization
- Classification broadly consistent with BPM5 but important exceptions in dissemination and classification:
  - Goods are disseminated in an analytical presentation that does not distinguish: (1) general merchandise; (2) goods for processing; (3) repairs on goods; (4) goods procured in ports by carriers; and (5) nonmonetary gold — instead all presented as credits or debits of goods.
  - ITRS does not separately identify financial commissions when a central depository agency reports financial flows.
  - When f.o.b. value is calculated on imports, insurance services on merchandise trade are not separated from merchandise value.
  - Financial derivatives, reported separately, are still included in portfolio investment; there are no plans to disseminate them separately.
  - Trade credits between affiliates are reported under trade credits in other investment and not under FDI flows and stocks in the IIP; income on trade credit is not separated from other investment income.
  - Other investment income excludes the interest share on financial leasing payments.
  - Loans between affiliates are recorded under other investment–loans and not under direct investment–other capital.

### 2.4 Basis for recording
- Valuation:
  - Transactions are recorded in broad consistency with BPM5; statistics are expressed in euro, leva, and U.S. dollars and are valued at market prices where available.
  - Outstanding amounts in debt instruments are valued at nominal value; flows are valued at market prices.
  - Exports and imports of goods are valued on an f.o.b. basis (imports are adjusted to exclude transport, but not insurance).
  - Adjustments are made to isolate actual transactions from valuation and other changes when transactions are derived from outstanding stocks.
  - BNB began adjusting changes in holdings of international reserves for valuation changes owing to exchange rate changes (backward revision of data was made to 1998).
  - Main exception: recording of FDI stocks uses book value as reported by banks and other reporters.
  - Quarterly FDI survey (NSI) and data from privatization agency and Notary office are valued either at market prices or at a proxy for market prices.31
- Currency conversion practices:
  - Transactions from the ITRS—mainly services, compensation of employees, and some private transfers—are recorded at the time of payment.
  - Imports and exports from customs records are converted by reporting banks from the transaction currency into the unit of account at the relevant average market exchange rate, unless the actual exchange rate is reported.
  - Reporting instructions to banks prescribe use of the average market rates in leva and in U.S. dollars to report monthly aggregated transactions in the presentation of the standard component.
  - Financial flows derived from changes in stocks for portfolio and other investment are converted using the monthly average exchange rate, in conformity with BPM5 guidelines.
  - External debt records report data in original transaction currencies and are converted using average monthly exchange rates.
  - Recording of arrears is valued at book prices and adjusted for accumulated interest.
- Recording basis (accrual vs cash):
  - Recording is mostly done on a cash basis; no subsequent adjustment is made to achieve accrual recording.
  - For the ITRS, large use of cash basis arises because: (1) settlements-based reporting records transactions at time of banking intermediation (income on debt reported when paid);32 and (2) the Foreign Exchange Law does not mandate accrual principle.
  - Survey sources are mostly communicated in stocks (from which flows are derived) and are therefore mostly based on accrual.
  - Customs data are based on the Special System of Trade; effective January 1, 1999 the time of recording for customs data reflects the date on the Single Administrative Document.
  - Administrative sources (e.g., MOF interest payments on government debt) are reported on a cash basis; private debt is to be reported on an accrual basis but respondents may not do so appropriately.
- Grossing/netting:
  - Credits and debits are mandated from respondents in reporting regulations in gross figures for the current account.
  - Financial account statistics are reported net to the BNB for each category, except for FDI where both credits and debits are reported.
  - International reserves are collected for assets only.

---

### 3. Accuracy and Reliability

### 3.1 Source data

- Framework and primary systems:
  - Bulgaria’s balance of payments statistical system relies on a comprehensive framework including the ITRS, direct reporting, surveys, and administrative data sources within and outside the BNB.
  - The ITRS is the primary data collection system, introduced in 1996.
  - The ITRS covers reporting from 1) 35 commercial banks33 and, per the Foreign Exchange Law, 2) 21 enterprises that hold bank accounts with nonresident financial entities and report directly to the BOPED.
  - ITRS data are mostly used for services and nongovernment transfers; in the financial account, ITRS data are used for Bulgarian FDI abroad, portfolio investment assets and other investment assets, and liabilities for commercial banks.
  - Authorities plan to migrate to transaction-by-transaction reporting before EU accession in 2007.
  - ITRS information is automated through banks (electronic forms submitted by email) and largely based on manual recording for enterprise reports (hard-copy questionnaires). Both groups use BPM5 economic codes.
- Reporting formats and thresholds:
  - For banks, the classification established in 1996 was reviewed in 2000.
  - Banks must report all transactions above the 5000 leva threshold, both in U.S. dollars and leva, including reporting of financial derivatives.
  - Nonfinancial companies report on less detailed forms, following main items of standard components; they report initial and end positions and flows quarterly and annually.
- Items not compiled from ITRS:
  - Exports and imports data based on customs declarations.
  - Annual tourism survey results used for travel services.
  - Transport services (calculated primarily on trade data).
  - FDI surveys managed by NSI and BNB.
  - Quarterly register on private debt.
- Deficiencies in ITRS and reporting:
  - Scope limitation: Foreign Exchange Law coverage limited to banks and enterprises that opened accounts with nonresident financial institutions after January 2000; accounts opened before that date are not covered.
  - Missing economic codes: BNB considers proportion of forms missing the economic code about 1 percent of the total current account.34
    - If transaction is below the reporting threshold of 5,000 leva (approximately US$2,500), the economic code is not required for individual operations.
    - If above that amount the code is required but may be missing; BOPED classifies unallocated data in totality under other investment, other liabilities.
    - Magnitude of data not classified is significant: 50.6 percent of the total for other investment–other liabilities during the 11 cumulated months January through November 2002.
  - Electronic submission mostly limited to banks; substantial manual recording required from companies and most administrative data.
- Annual surveys and FDI data:
  - Two annual surveys conducted to facilitate coverage and classification, particularly in financial accounts.
  - Survey on FDI abroad is based on reports from 80 nonfinancial enterprises.
  - Initial listing of target companies provided in 1999 by the Ministry of Economy covering companies that held FDI abroad before 1990.
  - For FDI in Bulgaria, NSI runs a survey whose results are communicated to the BNB; BOPED supplements this with seven other sources.35
  - No FDI register is maintained and no sampling techniques are used by BOPED; present coverage of FDI survey is incomplete.
  - Although designed as annual, the FDI survey was run only twice in 1999 and 2000 on outstanding FDI stock for 1998 and 1999 and flows for 1999 and 2000.
  - For 2003, plans existed to collect stock and flow data for 2001 and 2002 and to follow up on FDI operations announced in the press.
- Travel survey weaknesses:
  - Approach not systematic and allows for large undercoverage.
  - Survey administration lacks benchmarking or register follow-up.
  - Border police provide monthly traveler counts used to derive purpose of travel across six main categories; ITRS provides information from banks on travel motivated by education and health.
  - No registers or benchmarks are employed for the surveys.
- Other administrative and supplementary sources used by BOPED (manual recording required):
  - Customs data for goods transactions (replace ITRS data).
  - Transfers by the EU communicated by the MOF.
  - External debt data reported by the Ministry of Finance.
  - Data from Bulgarian Red Cross for received foreign aid (current transfers).
  - Monetary Banking Statistics Unit in BNB reports other investment–other foreign exchange deposits–other sectors (household deposits with domestic banks) and BNB accounts abroad with other central banks.
  - BNB Fiscal Services Department transmits data on nonresident holdings of government securities issued under Regulation 5, and the ZUNKs.
  - BNB Information Technology Directorate reports foreign assets and assets and liabilities of the BNB and commercial banks.
  - Notary office communicates data on purchase of real estate property in Bulgaria by nonresidents; Privatization Agency provides information on successful nonresident bidders of privatized enterprises.
  - Register on financial loans maintained by the BNB provides quarterly data on private sector debt.
  - Central Depository Agency reports portfolio investment transactions when transactions are recorded between residents and nonresidents.
  - Insurance Supervision and Pension Insurance Directorates of the Ministry of Finance report data on nonresident holdings in equity capital.
- Monitoring and analytical capacity:
  - Developments in the external sector are monitored through financial press follow-up on major transactions for FDI.
  - Monitoring and drafting of research papers constrained by limited staff; discussions with market participants are informal.
- Source data conformity and adjustments:
  - Definitions, scope, and classifications in source data are broadly in line with BPM5.
  - Adjustment procedures and supplementary information exist to align source data with BPM5 coverage, classification, valuation, and timing.
  - Specific adjustments and practices:
    - FDI: BNB supplements NSI data with other sources for flows.
    - Trade statistics: Data received by BNB include transactions in natural gas, electricity, military equipment, gold as commodity, barter trade, financial leases, direct investment in kind, fuel and food sold to foreign carriers, and foreign aid in kind; no other sources are used.
    - C.i.f./f.o.b. correction: Correction made using a coefficient of 8 percent on imports; no correction made on exports (provided f.o.b. by NSI). Adjusted amounts recorded under transportation (5 percent as expenses, and 3 percent as receipts).
    - Services data: Information for specific services reported through the ITRS are not adjusted in balance of payments statistics.
    - Portfolio investment: Data provided by Central Depository Agency on securities transactions are in nominal value and average price and are not corrected for fees or intermediary commissions; portfolio investment stocks recorded as reported by banks and the BNB.37
  - Deviations from BPM5 guidelines for time of recording noted in 2.4.2.
- Timeliness of source data:
  - Communication schedule is specified in reporting regulation; reporting periods are months, quarters, and years with fiscal year starting January 1.
  - Banks have 17 days after the end of the reference period (reports are monthly and quarterly) to communicate data.
  - Quarterly data from companies are expected within 15 days for the first three quarters; last quarter data within 25 days after end of year.
  - Delays in submissions are followed up by phone calls and letters; penalties for delays exist in theory but usually are not implemented.
  - Delays are encountered in surveys (e.g., travel survey); usually no significant delay for administrative data.
  - Delays of source data from customs are a serious impediment affecting the timeliness and quality of balance of payments production.

*Source: _cr03393 - 1.2       Transparency (IMF staff report content provided in the source PDF)*

### 3.2 Statistical techniques

### 3.2 Statistical techniques

### Data compilation and computerized controls
- No built-in computerized controls of data; software used: Microsoft Excel and partially Access.
- BNB runs simple consistency checks:
  - comparing previous periods with current reports;
  - comparing reported columns (in leva and dollars);
  - checking consistency between flows and stocks;
  - reasonable checks of the magnitude for debit and credit.
- ITRS respondents provide monthly aggregated data, limiting thoroughness of checks.
- For settlement data provided by banks, BOPED compares opening and end positions with flows and may contact respondents for supplementary information.
- Data controls are oriented by staff knowledge and expertise.
- Cross-checks performed for some items (e.g., FDI) between bank and company reports; no cross-checking with national accounts.
- BNB collects information on Brady bond-related operations used by the government in debt reorganization.

### Other statistical procedures, adjustments, and transformations
- Authorities acknowledge other statistical procedures need critical updating or revision.
- c.i.f./f.o.b. correction for trade established in 1994 has not been revised since 1994.
- Trade data reported by customs administration and supplemented by NSI to include other merchandise trade (e.g., natural gas).
- No estimation of shuttle trade by NSI or BNB.

### Key numeric and procedural facts
- c.i.f./f.o.b. correction unchanged since 1994.

---

### 3.3 Assessment and validation of source data

### Assessment practices and contact with reporters
- Source data are assessed and merged in the BOPED database as sent by respondents.
- Population of banks is not systematically monitored.
- BOPED staff rarely interact with reporting banks; limited knowledge of banks’ routine operations.
- Little chance to install consultation groups or provide training to commercial bank staff assigned to balance of payments compilation.
- For enterprises, contacts are limited to companies reporting using accounts with nonresident banks; interactions are formal and mostly focus on confirming high-value transactions.

### Cross-checks and source comparisons
- FDI: temporal consistency sought by checking respondent reports over corresponding periods for transactions via domestic banks; scope limited when transactions involve accounts held abroad.
  - Different data sources confronted for FDI flows: privatization agency, FDI quarterly survey of NSI (nonbank FDI flows), register of debt (loans between affiliated enterprises) reported by nonbank enterprises.
- Travel survey: similar consistency checks not run owing to paucity of alternative data sources; limited bilateral comparisons (with German and Ukrainian trade statistics); travel series comparison with Germany in progress.
- Portfolio investment: monthly data from MOF for external public debt and publicly guaranteed debt compared with holdings of securities as reported by banks for their own assets and for those held on behalf of clients.

---

### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs

### Validation of intermediate data
- Main intermediate data are validated using other sources (e.g., ITRS and surveys checked against administrative sources).
- Register on foreign loans obtained by companies is checked against data reported by banks.

### Statistical discrepancies and unallocated transactions
- Resource constraints limit checks; most checks run on same reported source data.
- Flows and stocks from commercial bank reports are routinely compared, bank by bank.
- For enterprise reports, changes in stocks compared with reported transactions on same form.
- Compilation may generate uninvestigated discrepancies such as unallocated transactions (reports missing an economic code).
- BOPED classifies unallocated transactions under other investment, other liabilities.
  - About half of the line originates from unallocated transactions: "50.6 percent of the total line for other investment–other liabilities during the 11 cumulated months January through November 2002."

### Errors and omissions and bilateral comparisons
- Errors and omissions attributed to:
  1. undercoverage of assets compared to coverage of liabilities;
  2. recording of households’ deposits with resident banks in foreign exchange.
- Comments on errors and omissions provided in main publication posted on BNB website.
- NSI has conducted limited bilateral comparisons with German and Ukrainian trade statistics; travel series comparison with Germany ongoing.

---

### 3.5 Revision studies

### Types of revision studies routinely carried out by BOPED
- Analysis of preliminary versus revised data for major aggregates.
  - Revisions related to corrections of source data systematically examined to assess impact of customs computing center corrections between provisional and final trade estimates.
  - On an ad hoc basis, comparisons between preliminary estimates and final results run for FDI compiled by NSI on real sector operators.
- Revisions of source data from comparison of alternative sources (e.g., private sector liabilities vs. register of financial loans maintained by BNB).
- Revisions linked to methodology when complete series reviewed against European regulation or best practice (e.g., revision to trade credit series).

### Use of revision studies
- Although conducted periodically, revision studies are not used to inform the statistical process.

---

### 4. Serviceability

### Relevance and user engagement
- Two groups of users identified: institutional users (e.g., IMF, MOF) and the wider public.
- No formal consultation process; informal bilateral discussions on topics such as FDI.
- Publication Office handles public communication and dissemination of BNB Monthly Bulletin (hard copy and Internet).
- BOPED responds to queries via email or via the Press Office.
- BOPED participates regularly in international meetings (Eurostat, IMF, OECD) in preparation for EU entry.

### Timeliness and periodicity
- Quarterly balance of payments statistics disseminated within eight weeks after end of reference period (exceeds GDDS recommendation and SDDS requirements).
- BNB disseminates monthly balance of payments data (exceeds GDDS and SDDS requirements).

### Consistency
- Internal consistency: sub-items consistent with aggregate data; quarterly data are totals of monthly data; quarterly data adjusted to monthly data.
- Series availability:
  - Monthly data available since 1997.
  - Quarterly data available since 1995.
- Revisions corrected back to the period when information was available (examples: travel data back to 1995; trade credit back to 1997).
- Consistency with other macroeconomic data:
  - Balance of payments used for rest of the world account in national accounts by NSI.
  - Consistency with government finance statistics complete (MOF data incorporated).
  - Consistency with monetary statistics satisfactory (bank transaction sources derived from central bank and commercial banks’ balance sheet records).

### Revision policy and practice
- Monthly publication includes revisions of data for the previous three months.
- Each quarterly publication includes revisions of monthly data for the entire current year.
- No systematic methodological document released for routine data corrections.
- When revisions involve methodology changes or significant additional information, these are documented and advance notice released in monthly press release and endnotes of balance of payments table.
- Preliminary data are clearly identified; revised data disseminated with same level of detail.
- Most studies and analyses of revisions are not made public but used for internal quality control; BOPED assesses retrospectively improvements in methodology-related revisions with annual results.

---

### 5. Accessibility

### Data presentation and dissemination formats
- Monthly booklet accompanies results with tables, charts, and additional breakdowns providing greater detail than standard BOP components and trade data.
- Booklet posted on BNB website in summary form, with summary in English.
- Main results elaborated in press release in Bulgarian and in English.
- Dissemination media: electronic (Internet) and hard-copy (BNB Monthly Bulletin, press release, ad hoc handouts).
- BNB Press Office maintains schedule of all statistics released by BNB, including balance of payments, FDI, foreign trade, external debt, available on www.bnb.bg/press_office; release date and time announced a week in advance.
  - Procedures fall short of SDDS requirements for a quarter-ahead ARC.

### Simultaneous release and access to subaggregates
- Up until January 2003, Press Office gave subscribing users data 90 minutes before public release.
- Effective January 27, 2003, balance of payments data to be released to all users simultaneously.
- Nonpublished but nonconfidential data available upon request; limited staff may lead to fees for this service; frequently requested data posted on BNB’s Internet site.

### Metadata accessibility and documentation
- Balance of payments GDDS metadata provide information on sources, methods, and methodological guidelines; an information notice posted on BNB Internet site and on DSBB under GDDS framework.
- Detailed methodological notes posted in BNB Monthly Bulletin for balance of payments and external trade; external debt metadata not disseminated.
- Methodology deviations described in tables and methodological notes.
- Methodological information available to all users; additional quarterly breakdown communicated to Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting at MOF.
- Specific methodology notes (e.g., FDI) prepared and posted on BNB website.

### Assistance to users and publications
- BNB Press Office is primary point of enquiry; contact phone number and email on Internet site, with a BOPED economist attending.
- BNB provides a catalog of publications (BNB Monthly Bulletin, Mid-Year Annual Reports, BNB Research Papers); Internet site offers downloadable reports free of charge; hard-copy reports sent to subscribers only.

---

### Table 6 — Key summary findings (Data Quality Assessment Framework)
- Prerequisites of quality:
  - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: Assessment marked X; comment: "The Foreign Exchange Law is not considered adequate for BOP collection. Also, delays in data supplied by customs."
  - 0.2 Resources: Assessment marked X; comment: "Staff is insufficient to maintain the programs for compiling BOP statistics."
  - 0.3 Quality awareness: Assessment marked X; comment: "Most of the internal checks are not used to monitor quality."
- Integrity:
  - 1.1 Professionalism: X
  - 1.2 Transparency: X
  - 1.3 Ethical standards: X
- Methodological soundness:
  - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: X; comment: "Mostly in conformity with BPM5, but with important exceptions related to the residency of banking transactions and other source data."
  - 2.2 Scope: X; comment: "Undercoverage of trade data (particularly shuttle trade) and financial assets."
  - 2.3 Classification/sectorization: X
  - 2.4 Basis for recording: X; comment: "Most data are collected on cash basis rather than accruals, and market prices are not always available."
- Accuracy and reliability:
  - 3.1 Source data: X; comment: "Sources data need further strengthening through the transition to the reporting on a transaction by transaction basis for banks in the International Transaction Reporting System (ITRS) and through more comprehensive and timely surveys. In addition, merchandise trade source data need to be more timely."
  - 3.2 Statistical techniques: X; comment: "No built-in computerized controls and c.i.f./f.o.b. factor for trade data has not been reviewed since 1994."
  - 3.3 Assessment and validation of source data: X; comment: "Source data are not routinely assessed."

*Source: _cr03393 - 3.2 Statistical techniques (Balance of Payments Statistics).*

### 3.4  Assessment and validation of

### 3.4  Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs

### Key findings
- Statistical discrepancies are noted; however, they rarely undergo thorough investigation.
- Main intermediate data are validated against other information where applicable (indicator 3.4.1).
- Statistical discrepancies in intermediate data are expected to be assessed and investigated (indicator 3.4.2), but practice indicates limited follow-through.
- Statistical discrepancies and other potential indicators of problems in statistical outputs are expected to be investigated (indicator 3.4.3), with limited evidence of routine investigation.

### Implications
- Lack of routine, thorough investigation of discrepancies weakens the accuracy and reliability dimension of statistics and reduces the usefulness of discrepancy signals for improving source data and compilation processes.

*Source: _cr03393 - 3.4  Assessment and validation of*

---

### 3.5  Revision studies

### Key findings
- Most revision studies are disconnected from statistical processes.
- Indicator 3.5.1 expects that "Studies and analyses of revisions are carried out routinely and used to inform statistical processes," but practice indicates limited routine use.

### Implications
- Limited linkage between revision studies and compilation processes reduces the ability to learn from past revisions and to improve initial estimates and source-data collection.

*Source: _cr03393 - 3.5  Revision studies*

---

### 4. Serviceability

### 4.1 Relevance
- There is no formal user advisory group to monitor relevance.
- Indicator 4.1.1 expects that "The relevance and practical utility of existing statistics in meeting users’ needs are monitored."

### 4.2 Timeliness and periodicity
- Timeliness and periodicity are assessed against dissemination standards (indicator 4.2.1 and 4.2.2), but specific shortcomings are noted elsewhere (see user survey).

### 4.3 Consistency
- Consistency expectations: within the dataset, over time, and with major datasets (indicators 4.3.1–4.3.3). Some users reported lack of consistency between datasets.

### 4.4 Revision policy and practice
- Revision policy and practice should follow a regular, well-established and transparent schedule (indicator 4.4.1) and make preliminary data and revision studies public (indicators 4.4.2–4.4.3). Users expressed mixed reactions to clarity of information on revisions.

*Source: _cr03393 - 4. Serviceability*

---

### 5. Accessibility

### Key findings
- Data accessibility, metadata accessibility, and assistance to users are flagged (indicators 5.1–5.3).
- Specific indicators:
  - 5.1.1–5.1.5: Presentation, dissemination media/formats, preannounced schedules, simultaneous release, and availability of nonconfidential subaggregates are expected.
  - 5.2.1–5.2.2: Documentation on concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, data sources, statistical techniques, and level-of-detail adaptation are expected.
  - 5.3.1–5.3.2: Publicized contact persons and catalogs of publications/services expected.

### Observed issues
- Users requested more comprehensive and accessible ARCs.
- Users requested more user-friendly websites and wider dissemination of data and metadata in English.
- Users encouraged introduction of a release calendar and improvements in timeliness.
- Requests for greater transparency of revisions policies and practices.

*Source: _cr03393 - 5. Accessibility*

---

### Appendix I — Summary of the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS)

### Prescribed practices (selected)
- Data dimension (coverage, periodicity, and timeliness):
  - Dissemination of 18 data categories, including component detail, covering the four main sectors of the economy, with prescribed periodicity and timeliness.
- Access dimension:
  - Dissemination of ARCs providing at least one-quarter advance notice of approximate release dates, and at least a one-week advance notice of the precise release dates.
  - Simultaneous release of data to all users.
- Integrity dimension:
  - Dissemination of the terms and conditions under which official statistics are produced and disseminated.
  - Identification of internal government access to data before release.
  - Identification of ministerial commentary on the occasion of statistical release.
  - Provision of information about revision and advance notice of major changes in methodology.
- Quality dimension:
  - Dissemination of documentation on statistical methodology and sources used in preparing statistics.
  - Dissemination of component detail and/or additional data series that make possible cross-checks and checks of reasonableness.

### SDDS subscriber requirements
- Post descriptions of data dissemination practices (metadata) on the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). Summary methodologies are also disseminated on the DSBB.
- Maintain an Internet website, referred to as the National Summary Data Page (NSDP), which contains the actual data described in the metadata and to which the DSBB is electronically linked.

### Notable dates and actions
- At the March 29, 2000 meeting of the IMF’s Executive Board, Directors approved incorporation of a new SDDS data category on external debt. The transition period for implementing this data category expires in March 2003.
- As a result of the IMF Executive Board’s Third Review of the SDDS in March 2000, IMF staff began monitoring observance of the Standard through NSDPs maintained on the Internet.
- Monitoring commenced at the beginning of July 2000 and is limited to the coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of the data and to the dissemination of ARCs.
- Source cited: Guide to the SDDS, February 2002: http://dsbb.imf.org

*Source: Appendix I, _cr03393*

---

### Appendix II — Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) — Generic Framework (July 2001 Vintage)

### Quality dimensions and selected elements/indicators

- Prerequisites of quality
  - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment
    - 0.1.1 Responsibility for collecting, processing, and disseminating statistics is clearly specified.
    - 0.1.2 Data sharing and coordination among data producing agencies are adequate.
    - 0.1.3 Respondents' data are to be kept confidential and used for statistical purposes only.
    - 0.1.4 Statistical reporting is ensured through legal mandate and/or measures to encourage response.
  - 0.2 Resources
    - 0.2.1 Staff, financial, and computing resources are commensurate with statistical programs.
    - 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources are implemented.
  - 0.3 Quality awareness
    - 0.3.1 Processes are in place to focus on quality.
    - 0.3.2 Processes are in place to monitor the quality of collection, processing, and dissemination.
    - 0.3.3 Processes are in place to deal with quality considerations and guide planning.

- Integrity (Dimension 1)
  - 1.1 Professionalism: impartial compilation and source selection on statistical grounds (1.1.1–1.1.3).
  - 1.2 Transparency: terms and conditions available to the public; internal governmental access identified; advance notice of major changes (1.2.1–1.2.4).
  - 1.3 Ethical standards: guidelines for staff behavior (1.3.1).

- Methodological soundness (Dimension 2)
  - Concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording should follow internationally accepted standards (2.1.1–2.4.3).

- Accuracy and reliability (Dimension 3)
  - 3.1 Source data: comprehensive programs, reasonable approximation to required definitions, timeliness (3.1.1–3.1.3).
  - 3.2 Statistical techniques: sound compilation and other procedures (3.2.1–3.2.2).
  - 3.3 Assessment and validation of source data: routine assessment of source data and publication of results (3.3.1).
  - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs: validation against other information and investigation of discrepancies (3.4.1–3.4.3).
  - 3.5 Revision studies: routine studies and use to inform processes (3.5.1).

- Serviceability (Dimension 4) and Accessibility (Dimension 5) — see sections above.

*Source: Appendix II, _cr03393*

---

### Appendix III — Bulgaria: Users’ Survey

### Survey design and response
- Questionnaires sent: 46
- Responses received: 32
- Response rate: 70 percent
- Languages: English and Bulgarian
- Coverage: users of macroeconomic statistics (national accounts, consumer price and producer price indices, fiscal, monetary, and balance of payments statistics)

### Main findings
- General satisfaction with coverage, level of detail, and periodicity of statistics in Bulgaria.
- Availability and timeliness deemed appropriate for most assessed series, though many users suggested increased timeliness.
- Majority of users reported being aware of advance notice calendars; some respondents did not seem to be aware of their availability.
- Metadata generally considered accessible and sufficiently clear.
- Respondents expressed confidence in accuracy of data and soundness of underlying methodology.
- Mixed reactions to clarity of information on revisions.
- Official macroeconomic statistics of Bulgaria compared favorably to those of neighboring countries.
- All respondents were familiar with the Internet websites of disseminating agencies and extensively use other official dissemination media.
- Several respondents noted they directly requested information from agencies through email.

### User suggestions and concerns
- Preference for a higher level of detail for some datasets.
- Lack of satisfaction with availability of data on government finance; request for full compliance of national accounts with international guidelines, including more detailed series.
- Two respondents noted need for improvements to coverage of balance of payments data, errors and omissions, and comprehensiveness.
- One respondent pointed to lack of consistency between datasets.
- Many suggested introduction of a release calendar and adoption of user-friendly dissemination techniques, such as more details on the Internet (English and Bulgarian) for national accounts and government finance statistics.

### Key areas identified for improvement (from follow-up discussions)
- More comprehensive and accessible ARCs.
- More user-friendly websites.
- Wider dissemination of data and metadata in English.
- Increased timeliness of data release.
- Greater transparency of revisions policies and practices.

*Source: Appendix III, _cr03393*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2003/_cr03393.pdf_