## _cr0482 — Executive Summary and Data Quality Assessment for Tanzania ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [_cr0482 — Executive Summary and Data Quality Assessment for Tanzania](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2004/_cr0482.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2004/_cr0482.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2004/_cr0482.pdf.json) --- ### Overview and mission - Review type: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) data module — GDDS compliance and DQAF assessment. - Main compiling agencies assessed: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Ministry of Finance (MOF), Bank of Tanzania (BoT). - IMF mission visit: October 8–23, 2002. - Authorities’ response dated: March 12, 2004. ### Main conclusions — general findings - Quality trend: Macroeconomic statistics improved significantly in recent years. - Institutional reforms noted: - Establishment of the NBS as a Government Executive Agency. - Statistics Act, 2002 enacted. - Policy Analysis Department in MOF and Public Finance Act, 2001. - Bank of Tanzania Act, 1995 emphasizing statistics. - Ongoing concerns: sustainability of consultant-led improvements; incomplete transfer of skills. ### GDDS participation and dissemination practices - GDDS participation: since July 6, 2001. - Coverage/periodicity/timeliness: meets GDDS recommendations except timeliness of Depository Corporations Survey. - Key coverage gaps (core indicators): - primary commodity and manufacturing or industrial production indices, - labor market statistics, - maturity breakdown and debt service schedule of public and publicly guaranteed external debt outstanding. - Encouraged categories not disseminated: - general government operations, - international investment position (IIP). - PPI: compiled but not disseminated to general public (PPI currently not disseminated; compiled but "not disseminated at present"). - Data access: NBS, BoT, MOF publications and Internet websites (URLs in source). ### Comparison with SDDS requirements (summary) - Major shortfalls versus SDDS: - National accounts: semi annual periodicity vs. SDDS quarterly. - IIP: present compilation only partial. - Central bank analytical accounts: lag of two to five months vs. SDDS requirement of two weeks; banking sector accounts lag one month in SDDS. - Balance of payments: annual periodicity vs. SDDS quarterly. - SDDS requires IMF reserve template and further development of general government statistics. - Outlook: - Short-term: likely to meet most GDDS recommendations. - Medium-term: could subscribe to SDDS within five years if action plan rigorously implemented. ### Selected GDDS vs Tanzania periodicity/timeliness entries (preserve table values) - Real sector — National Accounts: Periodicity (Tanzania): A (Semi-annual also available); Timeliness (Tanzania): 5-6 months; Timeliness (GDDS): 14 months. - Financial sector — Depository Corporations Survey: Periodicity (Tanzania): M; Timeliness (Tanzania): Within 2-5 months; Timeliness (GDDS): 3 months. - External sector — Balance of payments: Periodicity (Tanzania): A; Timeliness (Tanzania): Approximately 3 months; Timeliness (GDDS): 6 months. - Real sector indicators: - GDP (nominal and real): Periodicity (Tanzania): A (Semi-annual for some years); Timeliness (Tanzania): 5-6 months; Timeliness (GDDS): 9 months. - Consumer price index: Periodicity (Tanzania): M; Timeliness (Tanzania): 2 months. - Producer price index: Periodicity (Tanzania): M; Timeliness (Tanzania): 25 days; Timeliness (GDDS): Not disseminated (PPI). - Fiscal sector indicators: - Central govt. budgetary aggregates: Periodicity (Tanzania): Q; Timeliness (Tanzania): 4 weeks. - Central govt. debt: Timeliness (Tanzania): 9 months (Domestic: Q; External: Q noted). - External sector indicators: - Gross official reserves in U.S. dollars: Periodicity (Tanzania): M (Daily); Timeliness (Tanzania): 4 weeks. - Total exports and total imports: Timeliness (Tanzania): 1-5 months. - Exchange rates spot rates: Timeliness (Tanzania): Next day. ### DQAF-based summary assessment (overall) - Datasets assessed: National accounts; CPI; PPI; Government finance statistics; Monetary statistics; Balance of payments statistics. - Overall conclusion: Macroeconomic statistics and statistical base generally adequate for effective surveillance, but shortcomings exist that can detract from accurate and timely analysis and policy formulation. ### DQAF — Selected assessment scores (labels preserved) - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment — NAS: O; CPI: O; PPI: O; GFS: O; MFS: O; BOPS: LO (see paragraph 17). - 0.2 Resources — NAS: LO; CPI: O; PPI: O; GFS: LO; MFS: O; BOPS: O (see paragraph 18). - 1.2 Transparency — NAS: LO; CPI: LO; PPI: LO; GFS: LO; MFS: LO; BOPS: LO (see paragraph 21). - 2.1 Concepts and definitions — NAS: LO; CPI: O; PPI: O; GFS: LNO; MFS: LO; BOPS: LO (see paragraphs 22, 24, 25, 26). - 4.2 Timeliness and periodicity — NAS: O; CPI: SDDS; PPI: NO; GFS: O; MFS: LO; BOPS: O (see paragraphs 33, 35). - 5.1 Data accessibility — NAS: O; CPI: LO; PPI: NO; GFS: LO; MFS: LNO; BOPS: LNO (see paragraphs 38, 39, 40, 41). ### Prerequisites of quality — legal, institutional, resources, quality awareness - Legal framework: - Key laws: Statistics Act, 2002; Bank of Tanzania Act, 1995; Public Finance Act, 2001. - NBS mandated for national accounts and price statistics; BoT for monetary statistics; Minister of Finance to present government accounts to National Assembly (no explicit mandate to produce GFS to international standards). - BoT’s BOP authority undermined by absence of legal powers to collect information from outside financial sector. - Resources: - NBS resources improved markedly but still needs external financing for basic items. - MOF resources limited, constraining comprehensive GFS development. - BoT resources appear broadly adequate. - Quality awareness & coordination: - NBS self-assessments, mission statements; BoT data reviews and supplier education; MOF internal audits and external audit by Controller and Auditor-General. - Concern: insufficient routine user surveys; limited monitoring of nongovernment user needs. ### Integrity — disclosure and ethical standards - Professionalism: - Staff governed by Civil Service Department Standing Orders, 1994; NBS Code of Ethics; BoT Staff Regulations, 2002. - Transparency issues: - Prior access: national accounts, price, monetary and balance of payments statistics provided to government before public release is not fully disclosed. - PPI dissemination limited to major/preferred users. - MOF participation in BoT Monetary Policy Committee gives access to monetary statistics before publication (not disclosed). - Confidentiality: protected by law with prescribed exceptions (Statistics Act Articles 18, 22, 27; penalties and security measures specified). ### Methodological soundness — dataset highlights and deviations - National accounts: - Concepts and definitions broadly follow 1968 SNA and some 1993 SNA elements; minimum ISWGNA requirements met. - Major deviations: mainland-only coverage (Zanzibar excluded); output valued at factor costs (not basic/producer prices); government and some external transactions recorded on cash basis; intangible asset production not included; household final consumption expenditures not classified by purpose (COICOP not used). - No quarterly accounts or annual supply and use tables compiled yet. - CPI and PPI: - CPI: functional classification aligns with 1993 SNA; basket and weights based on outdated HBS (1991/92); price quotations collected in first half of reference month (fresh food coverage issues); documentation incomplete. - PPI: restricted to output of large manufacturing establishments; uses ISIC Rev. 2 (outdated); base year obsolete; not regularly updated; basic prices sometimes carried forward. - Government finance statistics (GFS): - Analytical framework follows national CGO system, not GFSM 1986 (or GFSM 2001); classification and sectorization deviate significantly; grants in kind included in revenue; lending and repayments presented gross; local government transactions not separately identifiable; no consolidated general government data. - Monetary statistics: - Analytical framework moving toward MFSM but migration incomplete. - Depository corporations survey historically limited to commercial banks; recent extension to nonbank and rural banks noted (BoT action). - Sectorization of domestic credit inadequate; accrued interest treated in aggregate; foreign securities valued at face values rather than market prices. - Balance of payments (BPM5): - Concepts largely conform to BPM5 with minor exceptions. - Scope: intended to cover mainland, Zanzibar, EPZs; coverage gaps such as unrecorded trade and misclassified ITRS transactions exist. - Recording basis: cash; valuation: market prices; grossing/netting broadly consistent with BPM5 except some net-recorded transactions. ### Accuracy and reliability — main weaknesses by dataset - National accounts: - Inadequate business register (Central Register of Establishments not regularly updated); lack of sources for informal and services sectors; heavy reliance on extrapolation from benchmark year 1992; single indicator method used for constant-price GDP; intermediate consumption often fixed ratio of output. - Identified underestimation: Input-Output project suggested GDP in 1992 underestimated by about 20 percent; nearly half attributable to manufacturing. - CPI and PPI: - CPI base year/weights outdated (HBS 1991/92); quality changes not adjusted; item definitions insufficient; price collection concentrated early in month. - PPI: base year obsolete; quarterly collection for prices; missing price imputation via carry-forward; no regular product introduction; documentation incomplete. - Balance of payments: - Source data timely and relatively comprehensive except transfers and investment income; ITRS misclassifications and migration errors produced inconsistencies and publication errors; debt arrears treatment deviates from BPM5; long-standing inconsistencies between BOP and Debt Management Department (DMD) stock data. ### Serviceability — relevance, timeliness, consistency, revisions - User engagement: - Nongovernment user needs not regularly monitored; lack of regular contacts with nongovernment users. - User survey: mission conducted survey Oct 8–23, 2002 — sample 53 users, 19 responses (response rate 36 percent); common user concerns: timeliness, lack of advance release calendars, lack of methodology disclosure. - Timeliness/periodicity: - Many categories meet GDDS periodicity; timeliness would improve if dissemination delays after compilation were eliminated. - Some categories would meet SDDS if dissemination delays removed. - Revisions and preliminary data: - Advance notice of major methodological changes generally not provided; provisional data often not clearly identified; revision studies not routinely undertaken across datasets. - National accounts: policy to show provisional data by subscripts beginning with year 2002; major revision planned to finalize 2003/2004 based on 2002 business survey and new benchmarks. - BoT BOP: revision policy being prepared; practice shows frequent revisions not identified or explained in publications. ### Accessibility — data, metadata, user assistance - National accounts: largely clear presentation; disseminated via Minister’s Budget speech; no internet access at time of mission (preparations underway); metadata not widely publicized. - CPI and PPI: CPI presentation clear but lacks preannounced release schedule; PPI not publicly disseminated historically, steps taken since August 2003 to post PPI online. - Monetary statistics: BoT Monthly Economic Review primary vehicle; not always simultaneously released to public; draft copies distributed to major newspapers and selected embassies; BoT catalogs available on website; metadata mainly on DSBB. - Balance of payments: layout/format problems hamper interpretation; only highly aggregated data disseminated; expanded BOP intended in next quarterly Economic Bulletin; detailed BOP data not posted on BoT website. - Catalogs: apart from BoT, compiling agencies lack catalogs of publications; contact persons often not publicized in national publications (contacts on DSBB). ### Key recommendations and planned improvements (preserve wording and numeric timelines) - National-level high priority: - Publicly identify internal governmental access to data prior to release. - Disseminate advance release calendars; release statistics simultaneously to all users. - Make revision policies public. - Conduct user surveys for feedback. - Identify preliminary data consistently; update GDDS metadata on DSBB regularly. - Commission a plan of action for SDDS subscription in the medium-term. - National Accounts (high priority): - Disseminate a “flash report” of key GDP tables at same time provisional GDP provided to POPP. - Implement 1993 SNA as soon as possible. - Implement new benchmarks and base year as soon as possible. - Maintain business register after business census 2003. - Include Zanzibar; establish quarterly national accounts in medium-term. - Develop short-term indicators for services and household final consumption. - CPI/PPI (high priority): - Define price collection items precisely. - Introduce procedures to identify and correct for quality changes. - Strengthen CPI validation procedures. - Rebase PPI after Business Census 2003 to include mining, electricity, water. - Cooperate with Zanzibar authorities to compile price statistics for full territory. - GFS (high priority): - Disseminate grants excluding transactions in kind; disclose grants in kind as memorandum items. - Improve dissemination of intra-year revisions and identify reasons. - Correct classification of lending/repayments (present net). - Disseminate comprehensive debt data; disclose debt guarantees as memorandum item. - Compile local government and consolidated general government statistics. - Standardize framework to GFSM 1986 and plan migration to GFSM 2001. - Compile Zanzibar GFS in consolidatable form. - MFS (high priority): - Include all depository corporations in depository corporations survey. - Provide sectoral distribution of domestic credit and accrued interest; revise bank report form to capture sectoral breakdown. - Change valuation basis of foreign securities to market valuation (other recommendation). - BOPS (high priority): - Address BoT legal mandate deficiencies for BOP compilation. - Bring debt arrears and reserve assets methodology into BPM5 conformity. - Correct classification/sectorization of debt transactions and current transfer debits. - Replace ITRS sources for travel, investment income, and financial flows by survey-based data. - Fix migration errors in historical data; rigorously follow compilation/review procedures; prepare documentation on compilation and review process. - Improve accessibility: revise layout of BOP tables; disseminate detailed BOP data on BoT website; revise historical data accordingly. - Continue development of alternative data sources (road transport receipts, embassy surveys, remittances surveys) and introduce regular reconciliation between BOP debt arrears transactions and DMD arrears stocks. ### Selected planned improvements recorded verbatim (examples with timing) - NAS (2.1): NBS will introduce institutional sectoral accounts and recommendations of 1993 SNA (short-term). - NAS (2.2): NBS will revise national accounts statistics based on 2002 business survey (medium-term). - PPI (2.3): NBS will adopt ISIC Rev. 3 (short-term). - GFS (2.2): MOF will disseminate a quarterly report on total central government debt on website (short-term). - MFS (2.3): BoT will introduce detailed sectoral breakdown of domestic credit and accrued interest (medium-term). - BOPS (2.2): BoT, in collaboration with TRA and NBS, will work to improve coverage of trade data by inclusion of estimated unrecorded trade (short-term). - BOPS (4.2): BoT will compile and disseminate quarterly balance of payments statements when priority issues in annual data are resolved (medium-term). - BOPS (5.1)&(5.2): BoT will refine BOP presentations in BoT publications and include methodology notes on BoT website (short-term). ### Authorities’ response — actions taken (high-level, preserve reported items and dates) - Bank of Tanzania (BoT) - Extended monetary statistics coverage to include nonbank financial institutions and rural banks beginning with Bank of Tanzania Economic and Operations Report of 2002. - Rectified slippage in Monthly Economic Review publication cycle. - Improved layout and formats of BOP tables and reinforced document review procedures. - Commissioned Private Flows survey in November 2002; planned embassy/IO survey during 2003/04. - Identified need for technical assistance in debt recording and upgrading CSDRMS for BPM5 arrears treatment. - National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) - Formed a GDDS task force in August 2003 for benchmarking and rebasing GDP; notice to users on benchmarking/rebasing expected before end of December 2003. - Begun implementation steps for 1993 SNA since October 2003; expects full compliance in three years. - Zanzibar statistics remain excluded from national accounts (not union affair). - Revised industrial production surveys from ISIC Rev.2 to ISIC Rev.3 since August 2003. - Completed Social Accounting Matrix for year 2000, including input-output tables. - Created post of information/publicity officer; developed brochure on CPI; started posting PPI on national website; working on PPI/CPI release calendars. - Ministry of Finance (MOF) - Identified main GFS problems stem from CGO system not conforming with GFSM 2001. - Plans to shift from CGO to GFSM 2001; estimated implementation period about three years. - Technical assistance, GFS training, and centralized database establishment required. ### Noted data problems (concise) - Lack of disclosure of pre-release internal access. - Deviations from international standards in classification/sectorization (GFS, MFS, PPI). - Delays between compilation and dissemination. - Inadequate coverage (informal sector, Zanzibar inclusion). - Deficiencies in accuracy, reliability; inconsistencies and errors (BOP migration and misclassifications). - Problems with layout/format of data tables (BOP). - Insufficient accessibility and metadata in national publications. - Needs for legal amendments: Public Finance Act, 2001 and BoT Act to clarify GFS and BOP mandates. *Source: IMF staff mission assessment and authorities’ response — ROSC data module for Tanzania (IMF mission, October 8–23, 2002; Authorities’ response dated March 12, 2004).* ### Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... ### _cr0482 - Executive Summary ### Overview and mission - This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) data module reviews Tanzania’s data dissemination practices against the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). - The review is complemented by an assessment of the quality of the national accounts, consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), and government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics using the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). - Main compiling agencies assessed: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Ministry of Finance (MOF), Bank of Tanzania (BoT). - Assessment carried out by an IMF Statistics Department mission that visited Dar es Salaam during October 8–23, 2002. ### Main conclusions: general findings - The quality of Tanzania’s macroeconomic statistics has improved significantly in recent years. - Authorities have established a track record of implementing most recommendations of past technical assistance missions and have demonstrated commitment to pursue plans and programs to further improve their statistics. - Institutional reforms contributing to progress include: - Establishment of the NBS as a Government Executive Agency. - Passage of the Statistics Act, 2002. - Establishment of the Policy Analysis Department in the MOF and passage of the Public Finance Act, 2001. - Bank of Tanzania Act, 1995 emphasizing statistics. ### GDDS participation and dissemination practices - Tanzania has participated in the IMF’s GDDS since July 6, 2001. - Except for the timeliness of the Depository Corporations Survey, Tanzania meets the GDDS recommendations for coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of the core statistics specified in the comprehensive frameworks. - In most cases Tanzania meets coverage and periodicity of specified core data categories and indicators; timeliness would be met for most if dissemination delays after compilation were eliminated. - Core indicators where coverage remains lacking: - primary commodity and manufacturing or industrial production indices, - labor market statistics, - maturity breakdown and debt service schedule of public and publicly guaranteed external debt outstanding. - Among encouraged categories, no data are yet disseminated for: - general government operations, - international investment position. - The PPI, although compiled, is not disseminated at present. - Access to macroeconomic data is provided through publications and Internet websites of NBS, BoT, and MOF (URLs listed in source). ### Prerequisites of quality - All three compiling agencies have an adequate legal and institutional framework supporting data quality and demonstrate awareness of quality as a cornerstone of statistical work. - BoT’s authority to compile balance of payments statistics is somewhat undermined by the absence of legal powers to collect information from outside the financial sector. - Resource availability: - Improved markedly at the NBS in recent years; however, NBS still must seek financing from outside sources even for basic items such as maintenance of its buildings. - Resources to compile statistics are limited at the MOF. - Resources seem less constrained at the BoT. - Concern: lack of effective transfer of skills from visiting consultants may threaten sustainability of past achievements after consultants’ departure. - Efficiency measures: NBS and BoT have measures to ensure efficient use of resources; MOF has yet to develop these. ### Integrity - All three agencies demonstrate professionalism; staff governed by, and have high awareness of, the code of ethics for civil servants or corresponding BoT regulations. - Integrity is undermined by lack of disclosure of prior access accorded to government for national accounts, and price, monetary, and balance of payments statistics. - The PPI index is not disseminated beyond major users. ### Methodological soundness - Concepts, definitions, scope, classification, sectorization, and basis for recording for national accounts (in terms of the System of National Accounts 1968), and for the price indices and monetary and balance of payments statistics are broadly in accordance with internationally accepted standards. - Problem areas noted: - National accounts and price indices do not cover the whole territory of Tanzania since they exclude Zanzibar. - Separate government finance statistics available for Zanzibar are not consolidated with those of the mainland. - PPI only measures output of large manufacturing establishments and uses an outdated sectoral classification. - CPI excludes certain important categories of consumer expenditures and reflects only price quotations collected in the first half of the reference month. - Pervasive deviations from international standards in classification and sectorization of government finance statistics. ### Accuracy and reliability - All sectors other than monetary, and to some extent government finance, exhibit deficiencies in accuracy and reliability. - National accounts suffer from: - inadequate business register, - lack of sources for the informal and services sectors, - widespread extrapolation from earlier estimates. - Price indices issues: - Base year is obsolete. - Quality changes are not taken into account. - CPI pricing items not well specified; in some cases price quotations are misreported. - PPI lacks regular introduction of new products. - Balance of payments statistics have demonstrated inconsistencies and errors, implying reviewing and cross-checking procedures were not fully effective. ### Serviceability - Apart from national accounts, deficiencies in official statistics include that the needs of nongovernment users are not monitored and no regular contacts with such users are maintained. - Timeliness and periodicity of many categories satisfy GDDS recommendations; more would meet timeliness if delays between completion of compilation and dissemination were avoided. - In some categories Tanzania would meet requirements of the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) if dissemination delays were eliminated. - Advance notice of major methodological changes is generally not provided, although users are generally informed at the time changes take place. ### Accessibility - National accounts are presented in a largely clear and understandable manner. - Government users are generally better served than the general public: PPI not disseminated; delays in monetary and price statistics. - Problems with layout and format of data tables in the balance of payments. - Metadata are presented on the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) but generally not in national publications or websites. - Apart from the BoT, data compiling agencies do not have catalogs of publications for their users. ### Statistical development and prospects - Statistics are becoming increasingly important given ongoing economic liberalization. - Authorities have detailed plans and have initiated action in a number of areas. - Some planned improvements will require substantial resources, but much can be achieved through better awareness and practices regarding regular and timely dissemination. - Short-term outlook: Tanzania should be able to meet most, if not all, GDDS recommendations. - Medium-term outlook: If it rigorously implements a comprehensive action plan, Tanzania should be able to subscribe to the SDDS within five years. *Source: Executive Summary of the ROSC data module for Tanzania (IMF mission, October 8–23, 2002).* ### 12. Plans for improving data quality are an integral part of the GDDS. Updates to the ### 12. Plans for improving data quality are an integral part of the GDDS. Updates to the ### Comparison with the SDDS requirements - The IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) is a “best practice” disclosure standard focused on encouraging authorities to provide information to users, including information that will enable them to access data. - A review of Tanzania’s data dissemination practices against SDDS requirements shows Tanzania currently fails to meet a large number of SDDS requirements. Specific shortfalls identified: - National accounts are compiled with a semi annual periodicity as against the quarterly periodicity required under the SDDS. - The present compilation of the IIP is only partial. - Analytical accounts of the central bank and the commercial banks are disseminated with a lag of two to five months against the SDDS requirement of two weeks for the accounts of the central bank and one month for the accounts of the banking sector. - Balance of payments are compiled with an annual periodicity as against the quarterly periodicity required under the SDDS. - SDDS also requires compilation and dissemination of the IMF’s reserve template, and further development of general government statistics. - Conclusion: Compliance with SDDS requirements will be a significant challenge for Tanzania’s capacity to mobilize statistical effort, but by rigorously implementing an action plan Tanzania should be in a position to subscribe to the SDDS within five years. ### Overview of current GDDS practices (coverage, periodicity, timeliness) - Selected entries from the GDDS–Tanzania comparison (coverage, periodicity, timeliness) as presented: - Real sector: National Accounts — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity (GDDS): A; Periodicity (Tanzania): A (Semi-annual also available); Timeliness (GDDS): 14 months; Timeliness (Tanzania): 5-6 months. - Fiscal sector: Central govt. operations — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity (GDDS): A; Periodicity (Tanzania): A; Timeliness (GDDS): Q; Timeliness (Tanzania): Not applicable; Central govt. debt — Coverage: No; Periodicity (GDDS): A; Periodicity (Tanzania): Q (Domestic: Q; External: Q); Timeliness (GDDS): 9 months; Timeliness (Tanzania): 9 months; Central govt. debt (other): Timeliness (Tanzania): 4 weeks; Timeliness (GDDS): Not applicable. - Financial sector: Depository Corporations Survey — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity (GDDS): M; Periodicity (Tanzania): M; Timeliness (GDDS): 3 months; Timeliness (Tanzania): Within 2-5 months. - External sector: Balance of payments — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity (GDDS): A; Periodicity (Tanzania): A; Timeliness (GDDS): 6 months; Timeliness (Tanzania): Approximately 3 months. - External sector: International investment position — Coverage: No; Periodicity (GDDS): A; Periodicity (Tanzania): Irregular; Timeliness (GDDS): 9 months; Timeliness (Tanzania): Not applicable. - Real sector indicators: - GDP (nominal and real) — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity (GDDS): A; Periodicity (Tanzania): A (Semi-annual for some years); Timeliness (GDDS): 9 months; Timeliness (Tanzania): 5-6 months. - Gross national income, capital formation, saving — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity (GDDS): A; Periodicity (Tanzania): A (Semi-annual for some years); Timeliness (GDDS): 9 months; Timeliness (Tanzania): 7-8 months. - Manufacturing or industrial production index/indices — Coverage: No; Periodicity (GDDS): No; Periodicity (Tanzania): M; Timeliness (GDDS): As relevant; Timeliness (Tanzania): Not applicable. - Consumer price index — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity (GDDS): M; Periodicity (Tanzania): M; Timeliness (GDDS): M; Timeliness (Tanzania): 2 months. - Producer price index — Coverage: No; Periodicity (GDDS): M; Periodicity (Tanzania): M; Timeliness (GDDS): Not disseminated; Timeliness (Tanzania): 25 days. - Fiscal sector indicators: - Central govt. budgetary aggregates — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity (GDDS): Q; Periodicity (Tanzania): Q; Timeliness (GDDS): 1 quarter; Timeliness (Tanzania): 4 weeks. - Central govt. debt: domestic and foreign — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity (GDDS): A; Periodicity (Tanzania): A; Timeliness (GDDS): Domestic: Q; External: Q; Timeliness (Tanzania): Not disseminated; Timeliness (GDDS): 2 quarters; Timeliness (Tanzania): Within 3 months. - Financial sector indicators: - Broad money and credit aggregates — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity (GDDS): M; Periodicity (Tanzania): M; Timeliness (GDDS): 3 months; Timeliness (Tanzania): Within 2-5 months. - Central bank aggregates — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity (GDDS): M (Daily for GDDS); Periodicity (Tanzania): Daily; Timeliness (GDDS): 2 months; Timeliness (Tanzania): Within 2-5 months. - Short- and long-term govt. security rates, policy variable rate — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity (GDDS): M; Periodicity (Tanzania): M; Timeliness (GDDS): Weekly (and monthly); Timeliness (Tanzania): One week (and three weeks). - External sector indicators: - Balance of payments aggregates — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity (GDDS): A; Periodicity (Tanzania): A; Timeliness (GDDS): 6 months; Timeliness (Tanzania): Approximately 3 months. - Public and publicly guaranteed external debt outstanding — Coverage: Yes, except for maturity breakdown; Periodicity (GDDS): Q; Periodicity (Tanzania): Not disseminated; Timeliness (GDDS): Twice yearly; Timeliness (Tanzania): Not applicable. - Private external debt not publicly guaranteed — Coverage: No; Periodicity (GDDS): A; Periodicity (Tanzania): Q; Timeliness (GDDS): Q; Timeliness (Tanzania): 2 quarters. - Gross official reserves denominated in U.S. dollars — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity (GDDS): M; Periodicity (Tanzania): M (Daily); Timeliness (GDDS): Daily; Timeliness (Tanzania): 4 weeks. - Total exports and total imports — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity (GDDS): M; Periodicity (Tanzania): M; Timeliness (GDDS): 3 months; Timeliness (Tanzania): 1-5 months. - Exchange rates: spot rates — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity (GDDS): Daily; Periodicity (Tanzania): Daily; Timeliness (GDDS): In high-frequency publication; Timeliness (Tanzania): Next day. - Italics in original table indicate encouraged categories. ### Summary assessment of data quality (DQAF-based) - Since mid-2001 the IMF complements GDDS/SDDS elements with an assessment of data quality based on the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). - The DQAF comprises a generic framework and dataset-specific frameworks covering prerequisites and five dimensions of data quality: integrity, methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility. - Six macroeconomic datasets were assessed using dataset-specific DQAF frames of reference: - National accounts - Consumer price index (CPI) - Producer price index (PPI) - Government finance statistics - Monetary statistics - Balance of payments statistics - Overall conclusion: Tanzania’s macroeconomic statistics and statistical base are in general adequate for effective surveillance, but shortcomings exist that can detract from accurate and timely analysis and policy formulation. ### Prerequisites of quality (legal, institutional, resources, quality awareness) - Legal and institutional framework: - Main agencies: NBS, MOF, BoT. - Key laws: Statistics Act, 2002; Bank of Tanzania Act, 1995 (BoT Act); Public Finance Act, 2001. - Legal mandates: NBS responsibility for national accounts and price statistics; BoT responsibility for monetary statistics; Minister of Finance responsible for presenting a full set of government accounts to the National Assembly (no mandate to produce comprehensive government finance statistics to international standards). - BoT authority to collect balance of payments statistics exists but is undermined by absence of legal powers to collect information from outside the financial sector. - Data sharing and coordination adequate; formal arrangements developed only for government finance statistics. - Confidentiality is protected by law except in a number of well defined cases. - Resources: - Recognition of statistics’ importance led to significant improvement in resources available to the NBS. - NBS still needs outside financing even for basic needs such as building maintenance. - Lack of resources likely to constrain national accounts development and appears to underlie limited dissemination of the PPI. - Resources at MOF remain limited, constraining development of comprehensive government finance statistics beyond budget execution data; Minister of Finance warned shortages of professional staff may jeopardize government financial management reform. - BoT resources seem broadly adequate for monetary and balance of payments statistics. - At NBS and BoT, measures exist to ensure efficient resource use; at MOF, costs of compiling government statistics are not yet measured and sustainability may be at risk if consultants do not transfer expertise to MOF staff. - Quality awareness: - NBS: mission statement focusing on quality, self-assessments, external reviews. - MOF: internal audits, data audited by Controller and Auditor-General, submission to National Assembly. - BoT: data reviews, cross checks, supplier education on data quality. - Some recent problems in balance of payments data suggest these processes are not always fully effective. ### Integrity - Laws covering NBS, MOF, BoT include provisions to encourage professionalism. - Institutional protections: - NBS status as government executive agency and BoT independence provide protection from undue influence. - MOF compilers protected by public accountability provisions; national audit office employees perform functions without outside interference. - Professionalism fostered by competitive recruitment/promotion and training participation. - Choices of sources and statistical techniques are guided solely by statistical considerations. - Transparency issues: - Laws and codes are widely available to public. - It is not disclosed to the public that national accounts, price, and balance of payments statistics are provided to the government before public release (partial reference on IMF’s DSBB). - Monthly government finance reports compiled for internal government use are available to the public on request but not widely disclosed. - PPI not disseminated beyond major users. - MOF participation in BoT’s Monetary Policy Committee provides access to monetary statistics before publication, not explicitly disclosed. - Users are generally notified of major methodological changes when they occur, but no formal advance notice mechanism exists. - Products of statistical agencies are generally clearly identified. - Ethical standards: - NBS and MOF staff behavior guided by Civil Service Department Standing Orders, 1994. - NBS has a Code of Ethics attached to NBS Staff Regulations. - BoT staff abide by Staff Regulations, 2002. ### Methodological soundness - National accounts: - Concepts and definitions follow System of National Accounts 1968 (1968 SNA) and some elements of System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA). - Minimum requirements for national accounts tables (ISWGNA) are met. - Internationally reported tables cover Tanzania Mainland only; Zanzibar excluded (only provisional data exist). - Quarterly national accounts and annual supply and use tables are not yet compiled. - Production and assets boundaries not fully in accordance with 1993 SNA; production of intangible assets is not included. - Classification/sectorization broadly consistent with international standards, except household final consumption expenditures not classified by purpose. - Basis for recording partially in accordance with 1993 SNA; exceptions: - Market output valued at factor costs instead of basic or producer's prices. - Government and some external transactions recorded on a cash basis rather than accrual. - Grossing and netting procedures are adhered to insofar as source data permit. - CPI and PPI: - Overall structures broadly in accordance with international good practice, but scope excludes Zanzibar. - PPI restricted to output prices of large manufacturing establishments. - PPI uses International Standard Industrial Classification Rev. 2 (outdated). - CPI functional classification aligns with 1993 SNA. - Basis for recording issues: - CPI measures prices consumers pay in the first half of the month; fresh food prices not representative for full month. - PPI lacks specificity in the definition of types of prices collected. - Government finance statistics (MOF): - Concepts and definitions prescribed by budget guidelines, not consistent with A Manual of Government Finance Statistics 1986 (GFSM 1986). - Aggregated structure distinguishes recurrent revenue and grants, recurrent expenditure and development expenditure, but does not identify lending minus repayment. - Net financing presented includes privatization and payments in arrears. - Scope covers central government of Tanzania Mainland receipts of budgetary and extrabudgetary units; expenditure includes budgetary expenditure and transfers to Zanzibar, extrabudgetary units and local governments. - Detailed revenue and expenditure breakdowns not presented per international standard. - Local government transfers not separately identifiable; salaries of local government employees included in central government expenditure. - Zanzibar government finances separately disseminated but cannot be consolidated with mainland. - Data not extended to general government: local government own revenue and corresponding expenditure not available. - Classification/sectorization differs significantly from international standards: - Nontax revenue includes loan repayments, capital revenue, gross revenue of departmental enterprises. - Expenditure does not separately identify current and capital expenditure; includes wages and salaries from centralized payroll and loans extended for policy purposes. - Net financing includes privatization proceeds and payments for arrears. - Debt data include government debt guarantees. - Basis for recording: checks received and issued at cash values (aligned with GFSM 1986), but cash recording not strictly applied as grants in kind are included. - Grossing/netting broadly adhered to except for lending minus repayment and departmental enterprise transactions. - Monetary statistics (BoT): - Analytical framework reflects Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM) concepts and definitions, but transition to MFSM methodology not completed. - Scope of depository corporations survey limited to commercial banks; excludes rural banks and nonbank deposit-taking institutions. - Sectorization of domestic credit not adequate. - Accrued interest on assets and liabilities treated in a highly aggregated manner. - Basis for recording flows and stocks largely consistent with MFSM. - Valuation: general valuation at current market-determined prices and exchange rates; valuation of foreign securities reflects face values rather than market prices. *Source: IMF staff assessment as presented in the provided content.* ### 26. The concepts and definitions ### 26. The concepts and definitions ### Concepts, scope, and classification - Concepts and definitions used in compiling the balance of payments statistics conform to the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual (BPM5) with only minor exceptions. - Scope: covers all transactions between the residents of the United Republic of Tanzania, including Zanzibar and the export processing zones, and the rest of the world; some coverage gaps exist, such as unrecorded trade. - Classification/sectorization largely in accordance with BPM5, with exceptions: sectorization of debt transactions, classification of technical assistance, income items, and current transfer debits. - Basis for recording: cash. - Valuation: market prices used to value flows and stocks. - Grossing/netting procedures: consistent with BPM5, with minor exceptions. ### Accuracy and reliability — overview - Accuracy and reliability identify features that contribute to the goal that data portray reality. Elements refer to identified features of the source data, statistical techniques, and supporting assessments and validation. ### National accounts - Except for the agriculture and public agencies, availability of source data for the national accounts is rather limited, partly owing to the inadequate business register and lack of periodic surveys. - Lack of sources most severe for the informal sector, production of services, and household consumption expenditure. - Available source data are generally consistent with definitions, scope, and classifications needed for national accounts, and are available on a timely basis. - Tanzania had a broadly comprehensive range of economic statistics around 1992, the year upon which the present GDP estimates are based. - Since that baseline the statistical techniques have been largely based on extrapolation. - Intermediate consumption is in most cases compiled as a fixed ratio of output. - The single indicator method is used to estimate GDP at constant prices. - Deflation techniques for general government expenditures and subsidies are not in line with good practice. - Estimates for informal and hidden activities are made. - No supply and use framework exists for investigating discrepancies in statistical output. - Revision studies are not routinely undertaken. ### CPI and PPI - Source data for the CPI and the PPI are not always based on precise definitions for the items for which prices are collected. - Basic data for CPI items do not necessarily measure prices at regular monthly intervals. - Basic data for the PPI are collected quarterly rather than monthly. - Both indices use an appropriate formula to aggregate elementary indices. - Both indices have outdated base years and lack exhaustive documentation. - CPI compilation technique does not distinguish rigorously between quality changes and price changes. - New products were introduced in the PPI on one occasion in the past; not done since. - If basic price information for the PPI is missing, the last quoted prices are carried forward for overly extended periods. - Assessment and validation of basic data mostly take place at the NBS headquarters, which causes problems for correcting misreported prices, particularly for the CPI. - Importance of revisions is limited for the CPI and the PPI. - Analysis of revisions does not feed into the process of imputing missing prices for the PPI. ### Government finance statistics - Source data are comprehensive for data on recurrent revenue and expenditure of budgetary accounts, and broadly adhere to international standards. - Comprehensive source data on extrabudgetary and development expenditure are not available. - Source data based on administrative records of government are timely and do not rely on statistical techniques. - Assessment and validation of source data are routinely undertaken, and data are reconciled with other sources. - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs are undertaken and have led to improvements. - Authorities investigate discrepancies and are aware of potential problems in statistical outputs. - Efforts to improve output data include improved systems, capacity building, periodic internal audits, and external audits. - Revisions of data are analyzed and incorporated whenever improved information becomes available. - Revision studies take the form of memorandums for files. ### Monetary statistics - Source data derived from accounting records of the BoT and commercial banks. - BoT balance sheet data provided by its Domestic Accounts Department. - Commercial bank data derived from a monthly report form returned to the Banks Supervision Department by all commercial banks in Tanzania. - Source data do not capture the full range of economic sectors as defined under MFSM methodology. - System allows timely compilation of monetary statistics. - No statistical techniques are used. - Assessment and validation of source data are carried out by the Banks Supervision Department. - Data revisions are usually small and do not affect important statistical aggregates; no revision studies are undertaken. ### Balance of payments - Source data for balance of payments statistics are timely and relatively comprehensive, except for transfers and direct and portfolio investment. - Statistical techniques employed are, in principle, sound, but the data review process is not rigorously followed, and the disseminated data contain numerous errors. - Adjustments from c.i.f. to f.o.b. imports are reasonably adequate. - No adjustments made for unrecorded trade, or for removal of double-counting of current transfer debits. - Assessment and validation of source data have led to improvements: a survey of foreign capital flows and travel surveys are about to replace the cash-based International Transactions Recording System (ITRS) or investment approvals as data sources for those items. - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs are not comprehensive. - Main intermediate data, such as exports, are validated against applicable information (crop harvests, commodity prices). - Behavior of data series is not routinely cross-checked and investigated. - Long-standing inconsistencies, such as those in debt arrears, have not yet been addressed in the disseminated data. - Statistical discrepancies in compiled data are not always monitored and investigated; significant problems with migration of historical data to a new compilation database were not noticed for some time. - No formal revision studies are conducted. ### Serviceability — overview - Serviceability focuses on practical aspects of how well a dataset meets users’ needs: relevance, timeliness, periodicity, internal and cross-dataset consistency, and predictable revisions policy. ### National accounts serviceability - NBS consults users through technical commissions and user/producer workshops including donors, government agencies, other users, and providers of data. - Periodicity and timeliness of GDP estimates meet the GDDS requirements. - Consistent time series are available from 1987 onwards. - National accounts statistics are reportedly consistent with balance of payments and government finance statistics, but discrepancies do exist, partly because of differences in revisions policies. - Major revisions of national accounts do not follow a predetermined cycle; advance notice of revisions is not given. - National accounts annual publication does not identify provisional data to alert users that these data are subject to revision. ### CPI and PPI serviceability - No periodic monitoring of user needs for CPI and PPI. - CPI meets the encouraged timeliness and periodicity of GDDS, and meets the requirements of the SDDS. - PPI is not published at all; existing plans would disseminate it one month in each quarter. - Both indices are internally fully consistent. - PPI data made available to certain users do not identify preliminary data. - No studies are made at the time of major revisions of the PPI. ### Government finance serviceability - Relevance ensured because budget documentation uses same analytical framework. - Data have limited relevance for international comparisons and are not monitored against needs of users other than government. - Timeliness and periodicity meet GDDS requirements. - Consistency within dataset exists, but alternative presentations use different analytical frameworks. - Data are consistent over a reasonable period; publications identify breaks in time series. - Reconciliation with other datasets hampered by differences in coverage. - Revision policy and practice for final annual data are well established and transparent: annual data are revised when audited results for all government accounts are available; audit reports are presented to the National Assembly and widely discussed. - Revisions performed during the year whenever changes occur and do not follow a revision schedule. - Revised data are not clearly distinguished from other data; status of data is not clearly identified as preliminary or audited. ### Monetary statistics serviceability - Relevance in meeting users’ needs is not monitored. - Monthly central bank and monthly commercial bank data disseminated with timeliness of between two and five months after the reference period, not fully consistent with GDDS recommendations. - Monetary statistics consistent internally and with government finance and balance of payments statistics, and over time. - Revisions are carried out but usually insignificant; users are not informed on the BoT’s revision policy. ### Balance of payments serviceability - No formal user advisory group to monitor relevance of balance of payments statistics. - Timeliness and periodicity: timeliness exceeds GDDS recommendation; periodicity meets GDDS recommendations. - Data reasonably consistent within the dataset and consistency maintained for a reasonable period. - Inconsistencies exist between balance of payments estimates of transfers and MOF data, primarily because of coverage gaps in MOF data. - Inconsistencies with balance of payments data published by the President’s Office—Planning and Privatization (POPP). - Inconsistencies between balance of payments transactions related to debt arrears and Debt Management Department stock data on debt arrears. - Balance of payments data are consistent with the external sector of the national accounts and with monetary statistics. - Revision policy: not disseminated; policy is to incorporate revisions whenever changes in data are received and to publish any revisions to annual data without further delay in the BoT’s Monthly Economic Review. - In practice, revisions (which are frequent) are not identified in publications, and the public are not informed of reasons for revision. - No studies of revisions are made. ### Accessibility — overview - Accessibility deals with availability of information to users: clarity and ease of availability of data and metadata, and adequacy of user assistance. ### National accounts accessibility - National accounts publication presents statistics in a largely clear manner but does not include analysis of recent developments. - National accounts data are disseminated simultaneously to all users through the Minister’s Budget Speech. - Nonpublished, nonconfidential subaggregates are made available on request. - No access to data via the Internet at present. - Extensive documentation on concepts and methods is published whenever the base year is changed; metadata available upon request. - NBS assistance to users lacks guidance on how to obtain additional information and there is no catalog of products. ### CPI and PPI accessibility - CPI releases presentation is clear, but data accessibility is not optimal due to lack of preannounced release schedules. - NBS serves main users better than general public; PPI dissemination nearly exclusively restricted to a small number of preferred users. - Metadata accessibility could be improved; documentation availability is not publicized and no metadata aimed at non-specialist users. - NBS staff can answer queries but no specific contact is publicized; assistance further hampered by lack of a catalog of publications. ### Government finance accessibility - Accessibility mainly through dissemination of electronic reports on government operations and BoT’s quarterly Economic Bulletin tables on debt and government operations. - Central government operations presented to facilitate interpretation and comparison with budget documentation; layout does not facilitate international comparisons. - Dissemination media and format for central government operations are adequate. - Format for central government debt presentation is not comprehensive and does not disclose total liabilities of central government. - Central government metadata accessibility limited to the DSBB of the IMF. - Assistance to users provided through contact details on DSBB metadata pages; official Tanzanian government website provides a general link for inquiries. ### Monetary statistics accessibility - Accessibility primarily through BoT publications, in particular the Monthly Economic Review, which is available on the BoT’s website. - Data are not simultaneously released to the public; draft copies of the Monthly Economic Review distributed to major newspapers and selected embassies. - Some methodological notes disseminated in BoT publications but no comprehensive metadata published in national publications. - Metadata accessibility limited to the GDDS metadata posted on the DSBB. - Assistance to users provided via a contact person in the quarterly Economic Bulletin and the DSBB. - A catalog of BoT publications is available on the BoT website. - All BoT publications are made available free of charge. ### Balance of payments accessibility - Data accessibility largely insufficient. - Statistics made available simultaneously to all users through BoT’s quarterly Economic Bulletin, but presentation of data tables has numerous problems hindering interpretation and comparison. - Dissemination media present only highly aggregated data that do not enable users to assess accuracy. - An expanded balance of payments is intended for the next edition of the quarterly Economic Bulletin, but no consideration given to disseminating the full range of detailed data on the BoT website. - Nonpublished, nonconfidential subaggregates are not made available on request. - No advance release calendar; timeliness of publication varies. - Metadata accessibility largely achieved: documentation on concepts, scope, classifications, data sources, etc., disseminated in GDDS metadata on the DSBB and a shorter version included in the IMF Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook. - National publications do not include metadata and the public are not informed of metadata on the DSBB or in the Yearbook. - Levels of detail in metadata are not adapted to needs of different audiences. - Assistance to users achieved via contact person in the quarterly Economic Bulletin and on the DSBB. - A catalog of BoT publications is available on the BoT website. - All BoT publications are made available free of charge. *Source: _cr0482 - 26. The concepts and definitions* ### 42. Based on the results of the data quality assessment, discussions with the Tanzanian ### _cr0482 - 42. Based on the results of the data quality assessment, discussions with the Tanzanian ### Summary of purpose and context - The content reports measures proposed to enhance Tanzania’s adherence to international statistical standards based on: results of the data quality assessment, discussions with Tanzanian statistical institutions, and responses from data users. - The IMF Statistics Department mission visited Tanzania from 8–23 October 2002. - The authorities’ response is dated March 12, 2004. ### General recommendations (national-level) High Priority - Publicly identify internal governmental access to data prior to release. - Disseminate advance release calendars. Release statistics simultaneously to all users. - Make the revision policies of all institutions known to the public. - Conduct surveys among users to receive feedback on the quality of statistics. - Identify preliminary data on a consistent basis in all publications. - Regularly update and enhance the GDDS metadata posted on the DSBB for all sectors. - Commission a plan of action for subscription to SDDS in the medium-term. Other Key Recommendations - Identify the compiling agency as a source of statistics on a consistent basis in all publications. - Inform users in advance of major changes in methodology and source data. - Identify the contact person for statistics in all publications. ### National Accounts (NAS) High Priority - Disseminate a “flash report” of the most important GDP tables at the same time as the provisional GDP estimates are provided to the President's Office-Planning and Privatization (POPP). - Implement 1993 SNA as soon as possible. - Implement new benchmarks and base year as soon as possible. - Ensure that the business register is regularly maintained after the updating of the business census 2003. - Include Zanzibar in the national accounts. - Establish quarterly national accounts in the medium-term. - Develop new short-term statistics (indicators), especially related to service production and household final consumption expenditure. Other Key Recommendations - Increase the detail of goods and services in the compilation of intermediate consumption. - Develop short term statistics on changes in inventories. ### Consumer and Producer Price Indices (CPI, PPI) High Priority - Define more precisely the items selected for price collection. - Introduce procedures to identify and correct for quality changes. - Strengthen current validation procedures, particularly for the CPI. - After the results of the Business Census 2003 have become available, rebase the PPI and make it representative of all establishments in mining, manufacturing, and public utilities. - In cooperation with the Zanzibar authorities, start the compilation and dissemination of price statistics for the full Tanzanian territory. Other Key Recommendations - Disseminate CPI and PPI methodologies. ### Government Finance Statistics (GFS) High Priority - Disseminate grants data excluding data on transactions in kind, and disclose the latter as a memorandum item. - Improve the dissemination of revisions made during the course of the year, identifying revised data and indicating the reasons for revision. - Correct the classification of lending and repayments transactions, and present these on a net basis. - Disseminate comprehensive debt data and disclose the data on debt guarantees as a memorandum item. - Disseminate data on central government that clearly identify transactions between different subsectors of central government. - Standardize the analytical framework in which central government data are presented to that used in the GFSM 1986. - Improve the classification of the source data on extrabudgetary and development expenditure. - Disseminate data on central government that adheres to the economic classification of all transactions, as recommended by the GFSM 1986. - Compile data on local government operations consistent with the international standard. - Extend the coverage to the general government, and disseminate data on consolidated general government, and identify transactions between the different subsectors of general government. - Investigate data inconsistencies with the national accounts, monetary and financial statistics, and balance of payments statistics, and implement procedures to reconcile data on an ongoing basis. - Compile government finance statistics for Zanzibar in a form that can be consolidated with those of the mainland. Other Key Recommendations - Publish methodological notes on compilation practices adapted to user needs. - Develop a migration path to GFSM 2001. ### Monetary and Financial Statistics (MFS) High Priority - Include all depository corporations in the coverage of the depository corporations survey. - Provide adequate information on the sectoral distribution of domestic credit, as well as on the accrued interest, in monetary statistics. - Revise the bank report form to collect adequate information on the sectoral distribution of assets and liabilities. Other Key Recommendations - Change the valuation basis of foreign securities to market valuation. ### Balance of Payments Statistics (BOPS) High Priority - Investigate how to address deficiencies in the BoT’s legal mandate for compiling balance of payments statistics. - Bring the methodology for debt arrears and reserve assets into accordance with BPM5. - Address deficiencies in the classification/sectorization of debt transactions, and current transfer debits in particular. - Change the data sources for travel, investment income, and financial flows from the ITRS records or adjusted investment approvals data to the survey-based data. - Improve the accuracy and reliability of the data by: - correcting the problem with the “migration” of the historical data to the new data compilation program, - rigorously following the procedures for data compilation and review prior to dissemination, - preparing documentation on the data compilation and review process. - Improve the consistency of the data by identifying and explaining the reasons for revisions in the disseminated data. - Improve the accessibility of the data by: - addressing the problems with the layout of the present data tables that hinder proper interpretation by users, - disseminating on the BoT website the detailed data compiled for the standard balance of payments components. - Revise historical data consistent with the changes recommended above. Other Key Recommendations - Continue to develop alternative data sources for perceived gaps in the ITRS data, such as road transport receipts. - Continue to work with the MOF on the development of comprehensive and timely data on transfers. - Introduce a system of regular reconciliation between the debt arrears transactions in the balance of payments statistics and the debt arrears stocks in the Debt Management Department data. ### Data Quality Assessment Framework — summary observations and planned improvements - The report presents a Data Quality Assessment Framework table with elements scored as: O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO = Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not Observed; NA = Not Applicable; SDDS = Complies with SDDS. - Selected assessment scores and referenced paragraphs/plans for improvement include (preserving labels and references exactly as in source): - Pre-requisites of Quality: 0.1 Legal and institutional environment — NAS: O; CPI: O; PPI: O; GFS: O; MFS: O; BOPS: LO (see paragraph 17). - 0.2 Resources — NAS: LO; CPI: O; PPI: O; GFS: LO; MFS: O; BOPS: O (see paragraph 18). - 1.2 Transparency — NAS: LO; CPI: LO; PPI: LO; GFS: LO; MFS: LO; BOPS: LO (see paragraph 21). - 2.1 Concepts and definitions — NAS: LO; CPI: O; PPI: O; GFS: LNO; MFS: LO; BOPS: LO (see paragraphs 22, 24, 25, 26). - 4.2 Timeliness and periodicity — NAS: O; CPI: SDDS; PPI: NO; GFS: O; MFS: LO; BOPS: O (see paragraphs 33, 35). - 5.1 Data accessibility — NAS: O; CPI: LO; PPI: NO; GFS: LO; MFS: LNO; BOPS: LNO (see paragraphs 38, 39, 40, 41). - Selected planned improvements (as indicated by authorities in October 2002) are recorded verbatim in the table and associated notes, including: - NAS (2.1): NBS will introduce institutional sectoral accounts and recommendations of 1993 SNA (short-term). - NAS (2.2): NBS will revise national accounts statistics based on 2002 business survey (medium-term). - PPI (2.2): NBS will expand scope to include mining and quarrying, electricity and water (medium-term). - PPI (2.3): NBS will adopt ISIC Rev. 3 (short-term). - GFS (2.2): MOF will disseminate a quarterly report on total central government debt on website (short-term). - GFS (2.3): MOF will disseminate a quarterly report on local government finances (short-term). - MFS (2.3): BoT will introduce detailed sectoral breakdown of domestic credit and accrued interest (medium-term). - BOPS (2.2): BoT, in collaboration with TRA and NBS, will work to improve the coverage of trade data by inclusion of estimated unrecorded trade, such as smuggling (short-term). - BOPS (2.3): BoT will continue to provide training in balance of payments methodology, collection and compilation procedures to staff of commercial banks, nonbank financial institutions, and bureaux de change (short-term). - NAS (3.1): NBS will revise national accounts statistics based on new Household Budget Survey and Integrated Labor Force Survey (short-term). - NAS (3.4): NBS will compile a Social Accounting Matrix for the year 2000 (short-term). - BOPS (3.1): BoT will (i) continue to improve measurement of foreign direct investment by conducting a second survey of private capital flows and stocks; (ii) work with MOF to improve the collection, compilation, and monitoring of all types of grants (transfers) that are not fully captured; (iii) finalize, in collaboration with the Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism and NBS, the survey of nonresident travelers and service providers in the tourism sector; (iv) introduce a survey of embassies and international organizations; (v) make the foreign direct investment survey a continuous exercise (every year); (vi) conduct a survey investigating worker’s remittances made by Tanzanians working abroad and nonresidents working in Tanzania; and (vii) improve estimates of services, current and capital transfers, and other financial transactions through field surveys (short-term). - BOPS (4.2): BoT will compile and disseminate quarterly balance of payments statements, when priority issues in annual data are resolved (medium-term). - BOPS (5.1) & (5.2): BoT will refine presentations of the balance of payments data in the BoT’s quarterly Economic Bulletin and Annual Economic and Operations Report, and include a statement of balance of Payments methodology (explanatory notes) in those publications and post it on the BoT website (short-term). ### Authorities’ response and actions taken (high-level) - Bank of Tanzania (BoT) - Extended coverage of Monetary Statistics to include nonbank financial institutions and rural banks beginning with the Bank of Tanzania Economic and Operations Report of 2002. - Rectified slippage in the monthly publication cycle for the Monthly Economic Review. - Improved layout and formats of BOP data tables and reinforced document review procedures prior to publication. - Commissioned in November 2002 a survey on Private Flows; plans another survey of embassies and international organizations during 2003/04. - Identified a need for technical assistance in debt recording and for upgrading debt data software (CSDRMS) to accommodate BPM5 treatment of debt arrears. - National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) - Formed a GDDS task force in August 2003 (including BOT, MOF and other stakeholders) to conduct benchmarking and rebasing of GDP; notice to users on benchmarking and rebasing expected before end of December 2003. - Begun implementation steps for 1993 SNA since October 2003, starting with classification of household consumption expenditures; expects full compliance with 1993 SNA in three years. - Zanzibar statistics remain excluded from national accounts as they are not part of union affairs. - Revised industrial production surveys from ISIC Rev.2 to ISIC Rev. 3 since August 2003. - Completed compilation of a Social Accounting Matrix for the year 2000, including input-output tables. - Created the post of information/publicity officer to address contact person issues. - Developed a brochure on CPI, started posting PPI on the national website, and working on mechanisms for issuing PPI and CPI release calendars. - Ministry of Finance (MOF) - Identified that problems with Government Finance Statistics largely stem from the Central Government Operations (CGO) system not conforming with GFSM 2001. - Plans to shift from CGO reporting system to GFSM 2001; estimated implementation period is about three years. - Technical assistance, training on GFS, and establishment of a centralized database system are required. ### Noted data problems (as reported) - Lack of disclosure. - Deviations from international standards in classification and sectorization. - Delays in completion of compilation and dissemination. - Inadequate/poor coverage. - Deficiencies in accuracy and reliability, inconsistencies and errors. - Problems of layout and format of data tables. - Insufficient accessibility. - Problems of timeliness and periodicity. - Problems of concepts and definitions relative to relevant manuals. *INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND — TANZANIA. Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module; Response by the Authorities; March 12, 2004.* ### introduction of release calendars, which show the dates and the type of data to be ### _cr0482 - introduction of release calendars, which show the dates and the type of data to be disseminated to the public. ### C. Summary Data Quality Assessment - Prerequisites of quality: - The Public Finance Act, 2001 and Regulations does not specifically assign MOF responsibility to compile and disseminate Government Finance Statistics in line with international standards. This law requires urgent amendment to be adapted to current reality. - Responsibility and legal mandate for compiling balance of payments statistics is not specified in the BOT Act. This calls for amendment of the BOT Act. - Methodological Soundness: - Adoption of the 1993 SNA by NBS will reduce, if not eliminate most problems in national accounts data. - MOF modification of the current reporting system of CGO and/or complete migration to the GFSM 2001 can enable MOF analytical framework to be in line with international standards. - Accuracy and Reliability: - All statistics other than monetary exhibit deficiencies in accuracy and reliability. - National accounts suffer from inadequate business register, lack of sources for informal and service sectors, widespread extrapolation from earlier estimates. - For price indices: base year is obsolete; quality changes are not taken into account; CPI pricing items not well specified; price quotations are misreported. - NBS actions: - Started including in the budget Central Register of Business establishment as one of the core statistics beginning 2002/2003 to enable regular updates of the business register. - National Accounts are undergoing a revision which will resolve extrapolation problems. - The base year will be reviewed after review of the CPI weights and basket has been completed. - Serviceability: - Needs of nongovernment users are not monitored; no regular contacts with such users maintained. - Advance notice of major changes in methodology is generally not provided. - BOT, MOF and NBS need mechanisms to provide advance notice to users when there are major changes. - Accessibility: - Compiling agencies have no catalogs of publications for their users. - BOT has posted monetary statistics on its website but web pages are not updated regularly; some BOT publications released with delays. - NBS has taken steps to post metadata on the national website to improve access. ### D. Fund Staff Recommendations - General recommendations: - Publicly identify internal government access to data prior to release. - Provide advance release calendars and release statistics simultaneously to all users. - Make revision policies public. - Conduct surveys among users to receive feedback on the quality of statistics. - Regularly update and enhance the GDDS metadata posted on the DSBB for all sectors. - National Accounts: - Shift from the 1968 SNA to 1993 SNA urgently. - Beginning October 2003, NBS started classification of household consumption expenditure, to be followed by introduction of institutional sectoral accounts. - Full compliance with 1993 SNA would take about three years. - Consumer and Producer Price Indices: - NBS needs procedures to identify and correct for quality changes; strengthen validation procedures, particularly for CPI. - Rebasing the PPI to be representative of mining, manufacturing and public utilities is of utmost importance. - Compilation and dissemination of price statistics for the full Tanzanian territory is not feasible because statistics is not a union affair. - Government Finance Statistics: - Problems will be resolved after MOF adopts the GFS 2001 manual. - MOF needs to modify CGO analytical framework and develop a migration plan to the GFSM 2001. - Monetary and Financial Statistics: - Inclusion of all depository corporations in coverage of the depository corporations survey has started and will be disseminated starting with the 2002/03 annual report. - Change of valuation policy on foreign securities to market prices is a challenge for BOT to implement. - Balance of Payments Statistics: - Deficiencies in BOT’s legal mandate for compiling balance of payments statistics need to be addressed. - Bringing methodology for debt arrears in accordance with BPM5 needs work. ### E. Detailed Assessments Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework National Accounts - 0.2 Resources: - Resources are somewhat limited to undertake extensive analysis or expand the statistical system (e.g., quarterly accounts, implementing 1993 SNA). - Government improved support to core-statistics; during financial year 2002/03, government released all funds budgeted for core statistics. - NBS will continue to request more priority for statistics funding. - National Accounts Department needs more statisticians; technical assistance required for quarterly national accounts and 1993 SNA implementation. - 1.2 Transparency: - Government access to national accounts data prior to release is not fully identified. No advance notice of major changes is given. - NBS will give out GDP releases through its website and government website beginning end of December 2003. - NBS needs to introduce a release calendar of GDP data prior to posting. - A notice of major changes is under preparation. A task force on GDDS formed in August 2003. A notice to users on benchmarking and rebasing GDP expected before the end of December 2003. - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: - Concepts and definition based on 1968 SNA; some elements of 1993 SNA implemented. - NBS committed to implementing 1993 SNA. Beginning October 2003, classification of household consumption expenditures started, followed by institutional sectoral accounts. - While revising national accounts, NBS will include the 2002 business survey. - Full compliance with 1993 SNA estimated to take about three years. - NBS needs to recruit two additional statisticians and seek Technical Assistance. - 2.2 Scope: - Zanzibar is not included. - Production and asset boundaries do not meet 1993 SNA recommendations (e.g., intangible assets not included). - Ongoing consultations between Mainland and Zanzibar compilers to harmonize methodology. - 2.3 Classifications and sectorization: - Household final consumption expenditure not classified by purpose (e.g., by using COICOP). - Economic activities based on ISIC Rev 2. Institutional sector accounts not compiled. - Ongoing revision based on 2002 business survey will shift classification from 1968 to 1993; industrial production survey revised to ISIC Rev.3 since August 2003. - 2.4 Basis for recording: - Output valued at factor costs; government and external transactions recorded on a cash basis. - These practices will continue until revision to 1993 SNA completed. - 3.1 Source data: - Problems: inadequate business register, lack of sources for informal sector and services production, household final consumption expenditure. - Beginning financial year 2002/03, NBS started including Central Register of Establishment (CRE) as core statistic to enable regular updates. - Lack of sources will be updated during ongoing revision. - 3.2 Statistical techniques: - Extrapolation widely used; constant price estimates not in line with good practice (single indicator method used to estimate GDP at constant prices; government expenditures deflated by overall CPI; CPI not used for deflating household final consumption expenditure). - NBS committed to resolving extrapolation problems through ongoing revision. - 3.4 Assessment and validation: - No supply and use framework used previously. - NBS has compiled a social accounting matrix for the year 2000, including input-output tables for consistency checks. - 3.5 Revision studies: - Revision studies not carried out regularly. - NBS developed a rolling strategic plan for economic statistics covering 2003–2012 to facilitate regular revision studies. - 4.4 Revision policy and practice: - Provisional data not identified previously. - Addressed: beginning with national accounts for year 2002, provisional data will be shown by subscripts. - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: - Metadata not widely publicized. - NBS will post a copy of the GDDS metadata on the national website after updating GDDS metadata before the end of 2003. - 5.3 Assistance of users: - Information on how to obtain user assistance incomplete; no catalog of products. - NBS established the post of an information/publicity officer; recruitment advertised. Once recruited, officer expected to commence work immediately. Price Statistics (Consumer Price Index) - 1.2 Transparency: - Internal government access only partially identified. Advance notice of major changes not routinely provided. - NBS needs procedures to give advance notice of major methodological changes. - 2.2 Scope: - Rural areas and Zanzibar not covered. - NBS plans to cover rural areas after reviewing the CPI basket and HBS weights. - Zanzibar not covered because statistics is not a union matter; regular consultations to harmonize methodologies; Zanzibar planning new HBS. - 2.4 Basis for recording: - Prices for fresh food items not representative of the full month. - NBS should obtain quotations for fresh food items at least once every week; currently obtains quotations only at the beginning of the month. - 3.2 Statistical techniques: - Base year obsolete. Item replacement without quality adjustment. Population used as weights. Incomplete documentation. - NBS needs technical assistance for item replacement quality adjustments. Problem of using population as weights already addressed in new HBS. - Ongoing revision of CPI weights and basket will address incomplete documentation. - 3.3 Assessment and validation: - Problems persist with misreported prices. - NBS has no mechanism to physically verify reported prices from regional centres; needs medium-term mechanism for staff travel to verify reported data. - 4.1 Relevance: - No regular monitoring of user needs. - Resolved: NBS developed a brochure explaining CPI; conducted two educational workshops during 2003. Plans for more workshops and user surveys. - 5.3 Assistance to users: - No catalogs. No specific contact publicised for CPI data. - NBS developed a brochure; release calendar under preparation; NBS website to be further developed. Price Statistics (Producer Price Index) - 1.2 Transparency: - Internal government access only partially identified. Advance notice of major changes not given. - NBS started posting the PPI on the national website since August 2003. - NBS developing a mechanism for release of the PPI calendar; should examine using media to provide advance notice. - 2.2 Scope: - Only manufacturing covered. Survey limited to large establishments. Zanzibar excluded. - NBS needs to expand coverage to include mining and quarrying, electricity and water. - Strategic plan provides for census of industrial production during 2004/05–2005/06. - 2.2 Classification/sectorization: - ISIC Rev. 2 used instead of ISIC Rev. 3. - Change to ISIC Rev. 3 to be effective in January 2004. - 2.2 Basis for recording: - Prices not clearly defined. - NBS has a program for backstopping visits to regions when misreporting arises. - 3.1 Source data: - Quality changes not distinguished from price changes. Collection quarterly instead of monthly. - NBS needs training programs on quality issues and technical assistance to verify standards and cut-off points. - Strategic plan expects monthly price statistics collection beginning financial years 2004/05–2005/06. - 3.2 Statistical techniques: - Base year obsolete. No regular introduction of new products. Last quotes carried forward if prices missing. Documentation incomplete. - Revision of base year from 1999 to 2000 ongoing with support of AFRITAC; includes revising questionnaires and baskets. - Method for estimating missing values to be reviewed during 2003/04 per PPI manual and IMF AFRITAC advisor. Documentation expected by end of 2003/04. - 3.5 Revision studies: - Analysis of revisions does not feed into imputation process. - Not currently done; NBS should consider including revision analysis in imputation and prepare schedule for publishing final reports after provisional results. - 4.1 Relevance: - No periodic monitoring of user needs. - NBS needs to work with users during basket review; user feedback questionnaires planned for financial year 2004/05. - 4.2 Timeliness and periodicity: - No dissemination to the general public previously. - Resolved: beginning August 2003, NBS started posting the PPI on the national website. PPI news releases available. PPI booklets to be prepared and made available for purchase by March 2004. - 4.4 Revision policy and practice: - Preliminary data not identified. No studies on occasions of major revisions. - NBS plans to address these in medium term; may need technical assistance to put in place mechanism for revision of preliminary data and to explain major revisions to producers and users. - 5.1 Data accessibility: - Semi-exclusive provision of data to preferred users. No preannounced release schedule. - Problems to be resolved once NBS completes preparing a release calendar for the PPI. - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: - Availability of documentation not publicised. No metadata for nonspecialist users. - NBS should post metadata on national website and publish a separate document with definitions and methodologies for nonspecialist users. - 5.3 Assistance to users: - No catalogs. No specific contact publicised for PPI data. - NBS should publish catalogs; establishment of information/publicity officer post will assist contacts and publicity. Government Finance Statistics - (Assessment text ends with header; preceding sections indicate MOF adoption of GFSM 2001 is required and legal/mandate issues to be resolved as noted above.) *Source: _cr0482 - introduction of release calendars, which show the dates and the type of data to be disseminated to the public.* ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources ### Resources for GFS compilation - No resources are specifically assigned to the compilation of GFS. - Lack of formal training in GFS, accountancy and technical computer knowledge. - Available financial and computing resources limit further development. - Resources for GFS compilation at the MOF are still limited. - Recommendation: Ministry should take necessary measures to ensure allocation of sufficient resources for GFS compilation starting with the 2004/2005 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF). ### Training - Formal training in GFS is still a problem at the MOF. - Recommendation: MOF will need to approach the IMF for technical assistance in GFS training. - Training in accountancy and technical computer knowledge is ongoing for Ministry staff within budgetary resources. ### Transparency (Government Finance Statistics) - Monthly reports on government finances are made available to the public on request without disclosing the availability to the general public. - Internal government access to reports is not disclosed in publications. - Currently monthly reports on GFS are prepared but not disseminated. Only domestic debt reports are disseminated quarterly to the public. - Recommendation: MOF needs to put in place immediately a mechanism to disseminate the monthly GFS reports. - MOF has established a unit for information reporting purposes which will be operational soon; the unit is expected to improve public awareness and access of government finance statistics. ### Concepts and definitions - The analytical framework is not in line with GFSM 1986. Published aggregates deviate in significant ways from the international standard. - Status: Problem persists. - Plan: Modify the reporting framework of Central Government Operations (CGO) to comply with the GFS 2001. - Implementation estimate: "about three years" to be implemented. - Technical assistance: MOF will need technical assistance support to implement the plan. ### Scope - At an aggregated level data cover central government operations but do not include details on expenditure of extrabudgetary units and development expenditure. - Full scope of data as presented by GFSM 1986 tables is not available. - Cause: CGO reporting system does not show in detail the expenditure of extrabudgetary units; foreign components for development expenditure are not included. - Resolution: Problems will disappear once MOF implements measures aimed at shifting from the existing reporting system to GFSM 2001. ### Classification / Sectorization - Classification of transactions differs from the GFS in significant ways. - Transactions of government subsectors and transactions with local governments are neither clearly identified nor treated in accordance with the GFS. - No clear demarcation between units of government. - Cause: CGO classification is based on functions instead of economic classification codes. - Resolution: Shifting from CGO to GFSM 2001 is identified as the only solution. ### Basis for recording - Development revenue includes transactions in kind. - Lending minus repayment and activities of departmental enterprises are presented on gross basis. - Cause: MOF currently includes grants in kind as a source of revenue and presents lending minus payments on a gross basis. - Action: Modify CGO reporting system to align with GFS 2001. Proposed modification does not need to wait for the complete shift from CGO to GFSM 2001. ### Source data (expenditure classification) - Economic classification of expenditure by extrabudgetary units and development expenditure is not available. - Remedy for extrabudgetary units: Integrated Financial Management System (IFMS) will be extended to all regions to include extrabudgetary units. - Development expenditure classification: Will remain a problem until MOF shifts from current system to GFS 2001. ### Assessments and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - Various publications contain differently defined aggregates. Data on grants are subject to frequent revisions. Investigation of discrepancies is limited. - Action: MOF has embarked on a monthly reconciliation exercise to eliminate data inconsistencies in various government publications. - Further need: Reinforce capturing and reconciliation of data on grants to remove frequent revisions. ### Relevance - Data are relevant for use within government but framework and classifications limit usefulness in international comparisons. - Needs of other users are not monitored. - Cause: MOF reporting system of CGO is not compatible with GFS 2001. - Medium-term action: MOF needs to put in place a system of getting feedback from the public on fiscal data. ### Consistency - Data sets on government finance in various publications differ due to differences in the analytical framework used. Causes of differences are not disclosed. Reconciliation with other datasets is hampered by differences in coverage. - Solution: Establish a centralised database system. - Implementation estimate: MOF considers it will take about two years to establish a centralized database system; technical assistance support will be needed. ### Revision policy and practice - Only the annual data revision follows a regular cycle and is published in the audit reports. - No indications of the preliminary or final status of data is given. - Recommendation: MOF needs technical assistance particularly on GFS 2001 training to introduce a revision schedule or calendar. - Timeline: If support is secured, MOF can release the first calendar to the public beginning January 2004. ### Data accessibility - No preannounced release schedule, but data are released at regular times. - Data are not released simultaneously to all users. Availability of nonpublished data is not disclosed. - Recommendation: Put in place a mechanism for dissemination of data to the public and for getting feedback from users; mechanism can include publishing of catalogs, release calendar, newsletters, etc. - Timeline: This should be able to be done within the next year or so. ### Metadata accessibility - Metadata are only disseminated on DSBB. - Possibility: Metadata could be posted on the national website even before the end of 2003. - Requirement: MOF to coordinate with NBS and POPP to ensure timely availability of metadata. ### Assistance to users - Contact details are only available on DSBB. No catalog of MOF publications is available. - Short-term action: MOF should immediately start indicating names of contact persons on specific data disseminated in its publications. - Plans: Centralized information system for data monitoring and management and a catalog of all MOF publications by 2004/05. --- ### Monetary and Financial Statistics — Transparency - Pre-release access to data by the Minister of Finance is not publicly identified. - BOT is not identified on a consistent basis as a source of monetary statistics in its publications. - Advance notice on major changes in methodology, source data and statistical changes is not provided. - BOT action items: - Introduce a release calendar of all information disseminated to government and public. - Indicate source of monetary data in its publications. - Introduce a mechanism for giving advance notice on major changes in methodology, source data and statistical changes. - Timeline: All measures can be implemented beginning January 2004 within this year’s budgetary resources without need for technical assistance. ### Concepts and definitions (Monetary) - Full range of sectors and categories of financial instruments not identified. - Resolution: Complete migration from activity/industrial classification to classification according to the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM). - Expected completion: financial year 2004/05. ### Scope (Monetary) - Coverage of the depository corporations survey was limited to commercial banking sector. - Status: Problem resolved. Beginning with the Bank of Tanzania Economic and Operations Report of 2002, coverage extended to include other depository corporations namely non-bank and rural banks. - Dissemination: Depository corporations surveys will be posted on the BOT website after release of the 2002 Annual Report. ### Classification/sectorization (Monetary) - Monetary statistics do not provide adequate information on sectoral distribution of domestic credit, and no information on sectoral distribution of accrued interest. - Recommendation: Modify current form 16 used by financial institutions for reporting to BOT, or introduce a separate form that gives detailed breakdown of domestic credit and accrued interest by appropriate sectors. - Timeline: This should be done within the next financial year 2004/05. ### Basis for recording (Monetary) - Foreign securities are not valued at market prices. - Recommendation: Change valuation policy on securities and put in place a system to capture market price of foreign securities on daily basis. - Timeline: Can be implemented beginning January 2004. ### Source data (Monetary) - Source data do not provide adequate information on sectoral distribution of domestic credit. - Action: Re-design form 16 or issue another form to provide adequate information on sectoral distribution of domestic credit. - Timeline: Can be done in the short term beginning January 2004. ### Revision studies (Monetary) - No revision studies are undertaken. - Recommendation: BOT needs to undertake regular studies on major statistical changes and inform users. - Timeline: Studies can start during financial year 2004/05. ### Timeliness and periodicity (Monetary) - Slippage in the Monthly Economic Review occasionally occurred. - Status: Problem has been rectified. ### Relevance (Monetary) - User surveys are not conducted. - Recommendation: Introduce user survey questionnaires and conduct user workshops at least once a year beginning financial year 2004/05. ### Revision policy and practice (Monetary) - Preliminary data are not identified on a consistent basis. - Recommendation: Put in place a mechanism of informing users of monetary statistics on major revision and revision cycles beginning January 2004. ### Data accessibility (Monetary) - Advance calendar for the release of data is not disseminated. - Recommendation: Introduce a calendar informing the public on dates and type of data to be released by the Bank beginning financial year 2004/05. ### Metadata accessibility (Monetary) - No metadata is available from national publications. - Current availability: Metadata is available on the GDDS (IMF website) only. - Recommendation: BOT should liaise with NBS to ensure metadata is also posted on the national website beginning January 2004. --- ### Balance of Payments Statistics — Legal and institutional environment - Responsibility and legal mandate for compiling balance of payments statistics is not specified in the BOT Act. - BOT considers amending the BOT Act (1995) so that it clearly specifies mandate for compiling balance of payments statistics. - Timeline: This should be done within financial year 2004/05. ### Quality awareness - Quality control processes are in place but are not effective. - Action: Procedure for document review has been reinforced; all documents are currently being reviewed and approved by relevant authorities in the Bank prior to release or publication. ### Transparency (BOP) - Notice of major changes in methodology and data sources is not given in advance. - Status: This hasn’t been done. BOT is working on putting in place a mechanism to inform in advance users and the public on major changes in methodology. ### Concepts and definitions (BOP) - Treatment of debt arrears and reserve assets is not in accordance with BPM5. - Status/Actions: - Reserve assets treatment is in accordance with the BPM5. - BOT has consulted COMSEC to upgrade CSDRMS software to enable recording of data on arrears as required by the BPM5. - BOT will need Technical Assistance or training on proper recording of debt data according to the BPM5. - Timeline: Actions need to be implemented beginning financial year 2004/05. ### Scope (BOP) - Gaps in data coverage such as unrecorded trade. - Status: Problems remain. - Recommendation: BOT to commission a joint study with NBS and TRA to determine magnitude of unrecorded trade and design an appropriate method of estimation. - Timeline: This should take place in 2005/06. ### Classification/sectorization (BOP) - Sectorization of debt transactions, and classification of current transfer debits, technical assistance and income items, are incorrect. - Problems with misclassification by banks of ITRS data. - Causes: Differences in definitions and treatment of transfers. - Recommendation: Training for staff preparing the data and regular training to compilers within financial institutions starting 2004/05. ### Basis for recording (BOP) - Data are on a cash basis. Some transactions, such as inter-company and communications transactions, are on a net rather than a gross basis. - Extent: Particularly a problem in the services account. - Recommendation: Conduct regular surveys in the services account to reduce dependency on recording on cash basis and move towards accrued basis recording. - Timeline: Should be done beginning 2003/04. ### Source data (BOP) - Present data sources for travel, investment income and flows, transfers, transactions of embassies and international organizations, and workers’ remittances are inadequate. - Ongoing actions: - Private Capital Flows survey started in November 2002; results expected to provide information for 2000 and 2001 by end of 2003/04. - Tourism Survey conducted by BOT in 2001; results will be out during 2003/04. - BOT plans to conduct another survey of Embassies and International Organizations during 2003/04. - Recommendation: Consider conducting more field surveys in future to improve coverage. ### Statistical techniques (BOP) - Numerous examples of errors in disseminated data; no adjustments are made for unrecorded trade. - Status: Problems of errors have been brought to a minimum. - Recommendation: Continue reinforcing the procedure of reviewing all statistics prior to approval to minimize errors. - For unrecorded trade: Joint study between BOT, NBS and TRA to determine magnitude; study could begin 2005/06. ### Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs (BOP) - Behaviour of related data series is not routinely crosschecked and investigated, such as debt arrears and changes in net errors and omissions following migration of historical data to new compilation program. - Action: BOT is now routinely crosschecking data with related series and other publications. ### Revision studies (BOP) - No revision studies are undertaken. - Action: BOT is working to put in place a mechanism for revision studies whenever major changes affecting statistical aggregates occur. - Timeline: This should start immediately as well. ### Relevance (BOP) - User surveys are not conducted. - Action: BOT is instituting a mechanism for feedback from users of BOP statistics to check relevance of data. - Timeline: This should start during 2004. ### Consistency (BOP) - Inconsistencies between Debt Management Department data on debt arrears stocks, POPP data on balance of payments and MOF data on transfers. - Status: Inconsistencies still exist. - Action: BOT, NBS, MOF and POPP are working on establishing a formal working arrangement to harmonize and remove inconsistencies. Explanatory notes will be included where obvious variations or inconsistencies appear. ### Revision policy and practice (BOP) - Revisions are frequent but are not identified or explained. Revision policy is not disseminated. - Action: BOT is preparing a revision policy expected to be in place at the end of FY 2003/04. - Policy provision: Revision of data once a year at the end of June. ### Data accessibility (BOP) - Problems with layout and format of data tables. Disseminated data are highly aggregated and insufficient to meet user needs. Timeliness is variable and there is no preannounced schedule of release. Nonpublished, nonconfidential, detailed data are not available upon request. - Action: BOT has taken steps to improve layout and formats and will ensure the exercise becomes permanent. ### Metadata accessibility (BOP) - Metadata are not disseminated in national publications or on the BOT website. - Action: Drafting of the methodology document is in progress and will be completed before the end of FY 2003/04. - Dissemination: Once finalized, methodology metadata will be incorporated in all BOT publications and on the BOT website. *Prepared by the Statistics Department; Approved March 12, 2004.* ### 1. DQAF—Summary of Results for National Accounts ........................................................29 ### DQAF—Summary of Results for National Accounts ### I. National Accounts — Prerequisites of quality - Legal and institutional environment - The Statistics Act 2002, second schedule, authorizes the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) to collect statistics on national accounts implicitly through items such as “Primary and secondary production,” “Expenditure and consumption,” and “Income, earnings, profits, and interest.” - Article 15 of the Statistics Act gives the NBS the right to establish statistical standards for those statistics; Article 25 requires NBS approval prior to publication. - In practice, the NBS is the sole official producer of national accounts; other agencies are not excluded in principle. - Data sharing and coordination - Arrangements and procedures exist to secure flow of source data from agencies such as the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security to the NBS. - Regular meetings are held with major data compilers such as the Bank of Tanzania (BoT), the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA), and the Tanzanian Investment Centre (TIC). - Contacts with some compilers (example: Ministry of Mining) are less regular. - Confidentiality and disclosure - Article 18 of the Statistics Act prohibits disclosure of individual information with specified exceptions: (1) prior written consent, (2) respondent made information public, (3) respondent is the only undertaking in a particular sphere, or (4) information available under any enactment or public document. - Exempt information includes: (i) names of individual undertakings with addresses, industrial classification, and number of persons engaged; (ii) details of external trade, movement of ships and aircraft, and cargo handled at ports; (iii) information relating to a local authority or statutory body. - Statistical records may be disclosed for bona fide research/statistical purposes only if identifying characteristics are removed. - Survey forms and questionnaires usually inform respondents of confidentiality obligations; exceptions exist (example: Quarterly Survey of Industrial Production questionnaire). - Article 27 limits staff communication/use of unpublished information; infringement penalty: a fine not exceeding T Sh 1 million (about US$1,000), imprisonment not exceeding 12 months, or both. - Article 22 prescribes supervised destruction of survey forms; physical and IT security practices include locked storage, guarded premises at nights, and password-protected computers. - Statistical reporting mandate and respondent burden - Article 27 makes truthful and timely reporting to NBS questionnaires obligatory; noncompliance penalty: fine not exceeding T Sh 600,000 (about US$600) or imprisonment not exceeding six months, or both. - The NBS seldom uses prosecution; it focuses on persuasion and assistance (regional office contacts, meetings, information leaflets) and plans to develop a marketing department. - Conflicts with other legal provisions have not been noted recently; obtaining detailed information from TRA or National Social Security Fund is not a significant problem. ### I. National Accounts — Resources - Staffing, finance, and computing - Staff resources are somewhat short of needs for extensive analysis, development of quarterly accounts, and implementation of 1993 SNA recommendations; staff are sometimes borrowed or temporary staff hired. - NBS regards staff qualifications as adequate; training is largely on-the-job with limited formal international training opportunities. - Staff turnover is very small; status as a Government Executive Agency since 1999 introduced a salary structure that compares favorably with overall government. - Computing resources, supported by donors, are generally sufficient and software is modern; most staff have individual computers. - Financial resources were recently insufficient, leading to publication delays and gaps (example: Survey of Industrial Production discontinued for several years); progress has been made to secure a more solid financial basis, but additional resources are still needed. - Government, at POPP proposal, has guaranteed resources to compile an extensive set of core statistics; financing for other statistics must be found by “selling” services to institutions and donors; some overheads (upkeep of buildings and facilities) require external financing. - Efficient use of resources - Managerial skills development and monitoring of statistical and financial progress are in place. - Treasury requires regular reporting or funds for the next quarter may not be released. - Efficiency measures include early editing (preferably in the field), extensive computer-assisted checks for unlikely values, and use of post-enumeration surveys as additional checks. ### I. National Accounts — Quality awareness - Focus on quality - NBS conducted a 1999 self-assessment on nine criteria using the European Foundations for Quality Management Excellence Model. - NBS uses output-based Open Performance Review Appraisal (OPRAS) to appraise staff performance. - NBS mission: “To facilitate planning and decision making within the government and the business community, to stimulate research and inform public debate through the provision of relevant, reliable, and timely statistics, and a quality statistical service in general.” - Monitoring quality of statistical processes - NBS can institute ad hoc technical commissions (donors, users, providers) for major operations (e.g., censuses) to discuss questionnaires, timing, and release schedules. - The NBS business plan is presented to the ministerial Advisory Board, which counsels on: development and maintenance of a strategic framework; setting objectives and priorities; acceptability of annual reports and accounts; evaluation of Bureau performance. - User feedback is encouraged through publication introductions and a suggestion box at head office; periodic users’ surveys are not conducted. - Quality tradeoffs and planning - NBS explicitly considers tradeoffs within overall quality (e.g., timeliness for parliamentary deadlines vs. reliability; reluctance to revise first national accounts estimates). - Commercial principles introduced in NBS operations have increased awareness of emerging data requirements; at BoT request, NBS is considering improving timeliness of certain series. ### I. National Accounts — Integrity - Professionalism - No formal provision explicitly addressing professional independence of the NBS or prohibiting external interference; status as government executive agency provides some distance from other bodies. - Statistics Act gives the Director General rights to engage necessary officers and employees. - NBS management reports no challenges to professionalism from outside agencies. - Hiring and promotion processes emphasize transparency and competitive interviews; outside assignments and presentations from returning staff encourage professional competency. - NBS management considers itself free in choice of source data and statistical techniques; methodological rationales are being documented under “Methods and Standards.” - NBS believes it is entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics, though corrective action is infrequent in practice. - Transparency - The Statistics Act is available in the NBS library and summarized on the NBS website with vision, mission, and legal foundations. - There is extensive internal government access to statistics prior to release (e.g., NBS provides national accounts data to POPP in March; public release occurs via the Minister in mid-June Budget speech; POPP distributes its annual Economic Survey at Budget speech containing many NBS data). - Internal governmental access is identified in the IMF Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) website, but national publications do not generally reference internal access. - NBS products are clearly identified as such in main statistical publications (examples include POPP Economic Survey and BoT publications/websites); nonattribution not viewed as a significant issue. - NBS has not developed a standard procedure to give advance notice of major changes in methodology, source data, or statistical techniques; main users are typically informed through informal interagency briefings. *Source: DQAF—Summary of Results for National Accounts (extracted from the provided document).* ### 1.3 Ethical standards ### 1.3 Ethical standards ### Ethical standards and staff guidance - The Civil Service Department Standing Orders includes a Code of Conduct applicable to all government employees. - The NBS has developed a Code of Ethics that will be attached to the NBS Staff Regulations. - Staff is informed about ethical standards during the first week of employment. - Issues of proper ethical conduct may further be addressed in the one-day meeting the NBS annually organizes for its entire staff. ### Methodological soundness — Concepts and definitions - The general framework for compiling the Tanzanian national accounts is largely based on 1968 System of National Accounts (SNA), but includes certain elements of the 1993 SNA such as valuation of imports of goods at free-on-board (f.o.b.) prices. - The NBS is working toward further incorporation of the 1993 SNA; the new revised time series, scheduled to be finalized by 2003/2004 and including introduction of a new base year and benchmarking, will be based on the 1993 SNA. ### Methodological soundness — Scope - The national accounts cover the ISWGNA minimum requirement for implementation of 1993 SNA: - annual value added and gross domestic product (GDP) at current and constant prices by activity, - annual expenditures of GDP at current and constant prices, - annual value added components at current prices by activity, - sequence of accounts for the total economy (up to financial accounts) with an annual frequency, - annual rest of world accounts (until net lending). - Additional published items: GDP estimates by region. - Not compiled: sector accounts (except general government). - ISWGNA-recommended 1993 SNA tables not yet compiled: - quarterly value added and GDP at current and constant prices by activity, - quarterly expenditures of GDP at current and constant prices, - annual supply and use tables. - Tanzania does not yet compile quarterly national accounts; plans to introduce them in a few years but target year not set. - Annual supply and use tables are not compiled. - Input-output tables exist for 1954, 1961, 1969, 1976, and 1992; annual accounts have not been revised to incorporate the 1992 input-output table. - Project to develop capacity to produce Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs); plan to produce a SAM for the new benchmark year 2000. - Residency definition follows the 1993 SNA and the fifth edition of Balance of Payments Manual; included items: - territorial enclaves such as Tanzanian embassies in the rest of the world, - bonded warehouses and free trade zone activities, - workers who work only part of the year in another country. - Practical difficulty: distinguishing between workers temporarily away and those abroad for more than a year. - Only mainland Tanzania is included. - Production boundary deviations from 1993 SNA: - Included: goods for own final consumption; output of goods for own account fixed capital formation. - Not included (in variance with 1993 SNA): research and development on own account; mineral exploration; production of entertainment, literary or artistic originals; production of computer software; illegal output sold to willing buyers (exception: mineral smuggling). - Asset boundary omissions: - Tangible assets to include but currently limited/not included: defense-related assets usable for civilian purposes (limited to buildings and road construction), valuables and historical monuments (not included), agricultural work-in-progress (only annual increase in livestock estimated). - Intangible assets not included: mineral exploration; systems and standard application computer software and databases (purchased or built in-house); entertainment, literary or artistic originals; patented entities; leases and other transferable contracts. - No routines to keep deviations from the 1993 SNA under review. - Major revision of national accounts to implement 1993 SNA planned to be finalized by 2003/2004. ### Methodological soundness — Classification/sectorization - Institutional sector accounts are not compiled; plans to introduce them within a few years. - Economic activities classified according to ISIC Rev. 2 with national adaptations in the agricultural breakdown. - Nine major activities distinguished: Agriculture, Forestry, fishing, and hunting; Mining and quarrying; Electricity and water; Construction; Wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants; Transport and communications; Finance, insurance, real estate and business services; Public administration and other services. - Imputed bank service charges treated as intermediate consumption by a nominal industry. - Harmonized System in foreign trade statistics is converted to SITC for national accounts. - Government current expenditures classified by 14 categories of COFOG. - No functional classification such as COICOP used to break down household final consumption expenditures; benchmark estimates from 1992 estimated at detailed level using national IOTC. ### Methodological soundness — Basis for recording - Valuation rules partially in accordance with 1993 SNA: - Market output valued at factor costs instead of basic prices or producer's prices. - Output for own use valued at same prices as market output (factor costs). - Valuation of intermediate consumption is purchaser’s prices, including sales tax, excise taxes, and non-deductible VAT. - Deductible part of VAT (introduced in 1998) is in principle excluded from valuation of final use. - Corrections made when transfer prices detected, but not common in practice. - Information on insurance and freight for merchandise imports is available. - BoT total imports and exports valued on an f.o.b. basis. - Transactions in foreign currency converted using the average exchange rate for a year published by the BoT. - Recording basis: - Most transactions recorded on an accrual basis, but all government-related and some external transactions are recorded on a cash basis. - Except for annual increase in livestock, no work-in-progress is recorded. - Grossing/netting: Transactions between establishments within same enterprise are recorded on a gross basis to extent data sources allow. ### Accuracy and reliability — Source data and coverage - NBS maintains a Central Register of Establishments (CRE) established in 1992, constructed from census and administrative records (licenses from district councils and municipalities, Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA), National Social Security Fund (NSSF), register of companies, vocational education training center); agricultural, fishing, and forestry establishments included. - CRE not regularly updated; includes non-operating units and excludes new units established after 1992. - Business census to be conducted in 2003 will be important for updating the register; this business census will cover both Tanzania mainland and Zanzibar. - Main source coverage by activity (summary of assessments): - Agriculture: Good (sources include annual Agricultural Survey from 1995/96 by MAFS, 1993/94 comprehensive agricultural census, Marketing Development Bureau, Ministry of Water and Livestock Development). - Forestry: Poor (benchmark 1992 based on HBS and Forest Department; extrapolation). - Fishing: Good (benchmark 1992 based on HBS; data from Fishery Department). - Hunting: Poor (benchmark 1992 based on HBS and Wildlife Section; includes estimates for poaching; extrapolation). - Mining and quarrying: Good (Commissioner for Mineral Resources; Department of minerals of MEM; sales from MEM; estimates for informal sector smuggling). - Manufacturing: Poor (formal sector benchmark 1989 Census of Manufacturing and Quarterly Survey of Industrial Production for establishments with 50+ employees; informal sector benchmark based on ISS 1991 and Dar Es Salaam ISS 1994/95; extrapolated by avg yearly growth rate 1991–1995). Note: informal sector counts for between 40 and 50 percent of value added. - Electricity, gas and water supply: Good (TANESCO accounts; water supply central/local budget data and National Urban Water Supply accounts). - Construction: Satisfactory (Survey of trade, transport, and construction; administrative data/balance sheets; own-account construction extrapolated by population growth). - Trade, Hotels and restaurants: Trade overall Poor (benchmark SCTT 1994; fixed trade margins; benchmarks from HBS 1992, ISS 1991); Hotels Good. - Transport, storage and communication: Poor overall; Good for railways, air transport, and communication (annual reports; THA and National Shipping Company; road transport fixed margin on agricultural production). - Financial intermediation: Good (statements from all banks, funds and insurance companies). - Real estate, renting, and business activities: Poor (benchmarks based on ISS 1991; questionnaires; owner-occupied dwellings value from HBS 1992). - Education and health: Good for public agencies, Poor for private producers (Basic Education Statistics; HBS 1992; ministry documents; Muhimbili Medical Center accounts). - Public administration and other services: Good (budget data; benchmarks from HBS 1992; annual questionnaire). - Expenditure approach source coverage assessments: - Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISH: Poor (benchmark HBS 1992; extrapolation fixed rate of GDP at factor cost). - Government final consumption expenditure: Good (budget data). - Acquisitions less disposals of tangible fixed assets: Satisfactory (government account data; construction data; imports). - Acquisitions less disposals of intangible fixed assets: Not included — Poor. - Additions to value of nonproduced nonfinancial assets: Not included — Poor. - Changes in inventories: Include only changes in livestock from MWLD — Good. - Exports and imports of goods and services: Good (Balance of payments). - Supplementary data: agricultural prices, industrial PPI, CPI, indirectly measured prices for foreign merchandise trade based on values and quantities, Cost of Construction Index. - Identified weaknesses: - Lack of sufficient basic data for manufacturing, trade, transport, and real estate; large informal sector contributes to undercoverage. - Many GDP estimates for these sectors based on extrapolation using indicators of varying appropriateness. - Sample surveys generally use scientific random sampling, proper imputation, and scientific grossing-up, but inadequate register undermines sampling frame quality. - Input-Output Table Construction Project (1999) indicated an underestimation of total GDP in 1992 of about 20 percent, nearly half attributable to manufacturing. - For most industries (agriculture, mining and quarrying, manufacturing, construction, trade, transport and private services) there is no information on intermediate consumption; fixed value added/output ratios based on benchmark year are used. - Household Budget Surveys (HBS): - Conducted regularly; latest in 2000/2001 with representative sample of 22,178 households interviewed. - Sample design and estimation procedures ensured representativeness of both mainland total and regional populations. - HBS generates detailed data on purchases of consumption goods, durable goods, own-account production for consumption, purchases of valuables, and own-account fixed capital formation. - Current national accounts: most production and expenditure benchmarks based on HBS 1992; final household consumption expenditure benchmarking conducted at detailed product level. - Government finance data: - Comprehensive government finance data available from Accountant General (central government) and Report of Income and Expenditure of Local Government. - Data detailed enough to estimate output, intermediate consumption, fixed capital formation by assets, and final consumption expenditure. - Central government data include extrabudgetary funds; all defense-related expenditures included. - Estimates on government capital stock are not made. - When annual services do not exist, routine or ad hoc surveys/censuses are conducted for benchmarking (e.g., HBS approx every fifth year; Annual Survey of Industrial Production now taking place for 2002; previous annual survey was for year 1990). ### Accuracy and reliability — Source data consistency and timeliness - Source data generally consistent with national accounts definitions, scope, classifications, time of recording and valuation; exceptions noted: - Agricultural statistics relate to agricultural year (e.g., October to September). - Central government financial statistics follow fiscal year July to June; central government calendar-year data estimated by averaging two subsequent fiscal years. - Preferred method: compile central government accounts from monthly or quarterly revenue and expenditure data. - Source data are generally timely, with exception of Producer Price Index (PPI), which used to be timely but is now delayed; national accounts use proxies later revised. - If source data are late, informal telephone contact or higher-level staff involvement is used to obtain data. *Source: _cr0482 - 1.3 Ethical standards* ### 3.2 Statistical techniques ### 3.2 Statistical techniques ### 3.2.1 Data compilation employs sound statistical techniques — overview and production approach - GDP measurement approach: from data on production; expenditures largely estimated using the commodity flow approach. - Total industries covered in national accounts: 28 industries. - Service activity estimates: output and intermediate consumption compiled at a relatively aggregated level using extrapolating techniques. - Agricultural output: compiled at a detailed product level. - Formal manufacturing output: extrapolated using information from the Quarterly Survey of Industrial Production at three-digit ISIC level. - Intermediate consumption: - Agriculture: estimated as a fixed proportion of crop output and livestock output respectively. - Manufacturing: estimated as a fixed ratio derived from the base year. - Benchmark concerns: - Almost a decade has passed since the benchmark year; economy changed substantially. - Revision of agricultural GDP estimates undertaken in 2000 under FAO guidance; not yet incorporated in the national accounts. - Revision findings: intermediate consumption as a percentage of livestock output was 24 percent in 1992 and 35 percent in 1999 at current prices; current national accounts presume a fixed percentage of 10 percent. - Revision also indicated input prices increased more than prices of livestock products. - Identified problem: reliance on fixed ratios more than five years old for estimating output at current prices is problematic; major activities using fixed ratios include transport, real estate and the informal manufacturing sector. - Specific compilation techniques and treatments: - Owner-occupied dwellings: based on HBS 1992 data; separate rural and urban estimates assumed to move at current prices with appropriate population growth; deflator used is the rent sub-index of the CPI. - Work in progress: limited to recording increase in livestock reared for food (data from MWLD); for large construction, partial output recorded as fixed capital formation proportional to payments made. - Inventories: only changes in livestock are included. - Consumption of fixed capital: perpetual inventory method not used; consumption of fixed capital estimated directly from information about depreciation on capital equipment from accounts or surveys. - Government receipts/expenditures recorded on a cash basis in government finance statistics are not converted to an accrual basis. - Volume measures (production side): - General approach: extrapolate benchmark year estimates by output volume and price indices; prices used are generally as specific as possible. - Example of weaker correspondence: government value added deflated by the overall CPI. - Single indicator methods used for value added at constant prices; 1993 SNA recommends double deflation. - Taxes/subsidies at constant prices: - Customs and taxes on imported products: extrapolated with constant price value of imports. - Sale taxes on local products: extrapolated by the appropriate production index. - Residual taxes: deflated by the CPI. - Subsidies: estimated by deflating current price values by the CPI (not appropriate). - Trade output/value added: estimated by applying benchmark trade margins on constant price production levels of monetary agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and relevant components of imports. - No chain indices used to measure volume change of GDP. - Base year: currently 1992; to be changed to 2000 by 2003 or 2004. Policy: change base years when new surveys or censuses provide good benchmark estimates. ### 3.2.1 Expenditure approach — procedures and issues - Expenditure approach currently cannot produce GDP independently; no independent sources for household final consumption expenditure. - Gross fixed capital formation components: - Construction: derived directly from output of construction industry with downward adjustments for repairs and maintenance. - Machinery and equipment: totals derived from imports data with adjustments for taxes and installation costs; government estimates from accounts analysis. - Compiled by activity and by type of assets. - Inventories: changes consist only of changes in livestock from MWLD; no current attempts to extend coverage to large inventory holders (wholesalers, oil companies, etc.). - Benchmarking of household final consumption expenditure: main source HBS 1992; benchmarking compiled at detailed product level (Input-Output Trade Classification) and adjusted for intermediate consumption items and underreporting of beer and cigarettes. - Post-benchmark: household final consumption expenditure extrapolated as a fixed ratio of GDP at factor costs, at both constant and current prices. - Government final consumption expenditure: derived from central and local government accounts; all aid-funded expenditure outside budget included; classified by 14 COFOG categories. - Specific expenditure compilation notes: - Government final expenditure excludes incidental sales. - Expenditures of residents abroad: not captured in household final consumption expenditures but included in imports. - Expenditure of nonresidents: in theory not included in household final consumption expenditure but included in exports. - Items considered stores of wealth (jewelry, works of art) are not included in valuables estimates. - Volume measures (expenditure side): - Household final consumption expenditure at constant and current prices estimated as a fixed ratio of GDP at factor costs; implicit deflator not consistent with the CPI. - Government final consumption expenditure deflated by overall CPI rather than by cost components of output for final use. - Gross fixed capital formation at constant prices: calculation varies by type; imported goods extrapolated by import volumes. - For constant price estimates, imported and exported goods extrapolated by import/export volumes at detailed commodity level. - Changes in inventories include only changes in livestock; correct methods used for deriving volume measurements. ### 3.2.2 Other statistical procedures and treatment of unrecorded activities - Procedures exist to adjust data sources for coverage, definitions, classifications, and valuation per international guidelines. - Informal sector: - Some procedures to incorporate unrecorded activities, e.g., informal manufacturing sector. - Informal sector considered rather important in Tanzania; recommendation: small-scale annual statistics survey to measure changes in informal sector activity. - Adjustments for special issues: hunting (poaching) and mining/quarrying (mineral smuggling) have adjustment procedures. - Illegal transactions: no estimates made for clearly illegal transactions such as drug trafficking. - Services and low-survey industries: use a special questionnaire specifically for GDP compilation. ### 3.3 Assessment and validation of source data - Large surveys: for most large surveys used in national accounts (e.g., HBS 2000/2001) information on sampling errors, over/under coverage, measurement problems, and nonresponse is available. - Some surveys: no sampling errors published for the Annual Survey of Industrial Production or the Quarterly Manufacturing Survey. - Imputation and nonresponse: imputation techniques for nonresponse are known; nonresponse is a small problem for annual surveys but growing for more frequent surveys. - Data validation routines: - All data received by NBS routinely checked for outliers and improbable results; verification with respondents when problems detected. - Surveys and censuses routinely audited to verify accuracy. - Accuracy of administrative budgetary data, international trade, and other secondary sources routinely assessed by national accounts specialists. - Source data analyzed for temporal consistency and consistency with related data sources (e.g., investment in buildings checked against construction activity). - Consistency checks on definitions, valuation, reference periods and classifications are largely conducted. - Revisions context: source data analyzed in revision projects (e.g., agricultural estimates revision seeking to reconcile discrepancies across sources). ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - 3.4.1 Main intermediate data validation: - Main source data routinely validated against other primary/secondary sources; National Accounts Department strives to remove inconsistencies between different data sources. - 3.4.2 Statistical discrepancies assessment: - Systematic procedures to routinely assess potential discrepancies in intermediate data (example: comparing transfers from central to local government with transfers received by local government); inconsistencies reported back to data providers and adjustments made. - 3.4.3 Investigation of discrepancies in outputs: - No supply and use framework currently used to investigate discrepancies and reconcile estimates. - Ongoing project to develop capacity to produce Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs); plan to produce a SAM for benchmark year 2000. SAMs could be a valuable tool for investigating supply-use discrepancies if continued after project period. - NBS validates its estimates against estimates made by others (e.g., exports/imports validated against balance of payments and customs data). ### 3.5 Revision studies - Revisions from preliminary to final results are generally very minor; revision studies are not carried out on a regular basis. ### 4 Serviceability — relevance, timeliness, consistency, and revision policy - 4.1 Relevance: - NBS consults users through several channels, including formal meetings between government agencies before agricultural production release and technical commissions/user/producer workshops with donors, government agencies, users, and data providers. - NBS staff regularly participate in international meetings and seminars (e.g., SADC). - 4.2 Timeliness and periodicity: - Annual accounts published within 6–9 months after end of reference year (in accordance with GDDS recommendations). - National accounts estimates disseminated with annual periodicity (GDDS recommendation). - 4.3 Consistency: - Internal consistency: annual accounts show a statistical discrepancy bridging production and expenditure approaches. - Statistical discrepancy magnitude: on average about 1.5 percent of GDP during the last six years, with a minimum value of 0.6 percent and a maximum of 2.6 percent for individual years. - Some expenditure components estimated on a weak basis (example: household final consumption expenditure extrapolated with fixed rates from base year). - Estimates at current prices consistent with matching series at constant prices and the deflators. - Historical consistency: national accounts compiled since the 1950s; 1968 SNA implemented in mid-seventies; latest major revision with base year 1992 worked back to 1987 and revised time series published in 1997. - Consistency with other frameworks: national accounts reportedly consistent with balance of payments and government finance statistics, but "International transactions" table in national accounts publication is not completely in line with Tanzania's Balance of Payments published in BoT's Economic bulletin. - 4.4 Revision policy and practice: - Revisions of provisional estimates are predetermined and stable year-to-year but could be more clearly announced to the public. - Major revisions do not follow a predetermined cycle; policy is to revise when new large surveys and censuses provide benchmarking data. - Last major revision conducted during 1995–1997 with 1992 as benchmark/base year. - Next revision started and planned to be finalized in 2003/2004. - NBS has not developed a formal procedure for giving advance notice of major methodological changes; informal briefings and interagency meetings likely inform main users. - To avoid breaks in time series, major new source data are only incorporated when there is a change of base year. - Preliminary data identification: since 1997 national accounts publication gives no indication that some data are preliminary; prior to that the publication stated last two or three years were subject to revision. - Revised data disseminated with same level of detail as preliminary data. - Public documentation of revisions: major issues giving rise to revisions explained in "Revised National Accounts of Tanzania 1986–1996" with an annex describing revised sources and methods; publication contains no analysis of revised sources comparable to earlier publications (e.g., "Revised National Accounts of Tanzania 1976–1990"). *Source: _cr0482 - 3.2 Statistical techniques* ### 5. Accessibility ### 5. Accessibility ### 5.1 Data accessibility - Presentation and analytical coverage - National accounts data are published in the NBS's National Accounts of Tanzania 1989–2001 in a clear manner, but the publication does not include any analysis of current-period developments; an improved layout could have facilitated interpretation of the data. - Datasets are published with various level of detail; regional GDP is published. - Several tables contain ratios such as shares in GDP, regional GDP per capita, and average annual growth rates of GDP at constant prices. - National accounts data are made public by the Minister of Finance in his mid-June Budget speech, when the annual Economic Survey produced by the POPP is distributed; in the Economic Survey national accounts data are accompanied by an analysis of the most recent developments and several charts. - Dissemination media and formats - National accounts data are first released in the Minister's Budget speech and in the Economic Survey following the Budget speech. - The NBS publication National Accounts of Tanzania will normally be issued in August. - Access to data via the Internet is not yet possible, but preparations for establishing the website have started. - Release schedule and simultaneous access - Formally, the schedule for the release of the national accounts data is not pre-announced; however, since the data are made public via the Minister's Budget speech every year, the public will be aware of the release date. - Simultaneous release is achieved through the issuance of the Budget documents. - The press is not briefed in advance. - Nonpublished subaggregates - Unpublished, but nonconfidential, national accounts data can be provided on request for a fee. - The availability of additional information is not widely publicized by the NBS. ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - Documentation on concepts, scope, classifications, sources, and methods - Extensive documentation on concepts and methods is published when the base year is changed; these publications are available on request but are difficult to find after some years. - Other metadata are rather scarce: information about response rates to main surveys is not given; linkage to other major data systems such as the balance of payments or government finance statistics is not established (for example, the BoT is not referred to as the source for the table "International Transactions" in the publication National accounts of Tanzania). - The GDDS summary methodologies and other related metadata are updated with several months' delay. - Level of detail for intended audiences - The annual brochure Tanzania in Figures informs general users about national accounts and other statistical series. - A rather comprehensive publication on sources and methods is produced on occasion of the change of base year. ### 5.3 Assistance to users - Contact information and user guidance - All official publications of the NBS clearly indicate how the Bureau can be contacted. - In the national accounts publication, only the NBS and the National Accounts Department are mentioned; no specifics such as telephone numbers, postal/facsimile/e-mail addresses, contact person for particular types of questions, etc., are given. - Documentation has not been developed to educate users of related datasets. - Assistance to users is not monitored through surveys. - Catalogs and marketing of publications - The NBS is setting up a section on the marketing of statistical products. - Currently no Catalogs of publications are available. ### Data Quality Assessment Framework — Accessibility (selected findings) - 5.1 Data accessibility: O (Practice Observed) - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: LO (Practice Largely Observed) - Comment: Metadata are not widely publicized. - 5.3 Assistance to users: LNO (Practice Largely Not Observed) - Comment: Information on how to obtain user assistance is incomplete, and no Catalog of products is available. *Source: _cr0482 - 5. Accessibility* ### 1. Integrity ### 1. Integrity ### 1.1 Professionalism - No formal provision explicitly addressing the professional independence of the NBS or prohibiting others from interfering in compilation/dissemination; status as government executive agency implies distance from tutelage of other government bodies. - Statistics Act gives the Director General power to engage such officers and employees as he may consider necessary or desirable. - NBS reports it does not feel its professionalism is unduly challenged by any outside agency. - Hiring and promotion practices: transparency of procedures and competitiveness promoted for new hires and promotions. - Incentives for professional competence: outside assignments, presentation of technical papers and seminars by staff returning from overseas courses and conferences. - NBS management considers itself completely free in choice of source data and statistical techniques; reasoning for methodological choices being collected under title Methods and Standards. - NBS sees clarifying misinterpretation of their data as a task, but corrective action is infrequent in practice. ### 1.2 Transparency - Statistics Act available in NBS library; NBS website includes profile summarizing vision, mission, and legal foundations. - There is extensive internal government access to statistics prior to release to receive comments and accommodate urgent political needs. - Internal access is identified on IMF DSBB website but national publications do not reference internal government access fully. - NBS products are clearly identified as such; outside publications (Economic Survey of the POPP and BoT publications/website) include notes identifying NBS as source. - NBS does not actively request attribution, but nonattribution does not seem an issue in practice. - NBS has not developed standard procedures for giving advance notice of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques. - Main users are likely aware of future changes from informal briefings at interagency meetings. ### 1.3 Ethical standards - Civil Service Standing Orders, 1994 includes a Code of Conduct applicable to all government employees. - NBS has developed a Code of Ethics to be attached to the NBS Staff Regulations. - Staff are informed about ethical standards during the first week of employment. - Issues of proper ethical conduct may be further addressed in the one-day annual meeting the NBS organizes for its entire staff. ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - Tanzanian CPI measures changing cost of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by the private consumer. - Concepts and definitions are in broad accordance with the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA) regarding weights and valuation of household final consumption expenditures. ### 2.2 Scope - CPI covers final consumption expenditure by individual households in twenty urban centers on the Tanzania mainland. - Households of all size classes, income levels and occupations are represented. - Two deviations from 1993 SNA household concept: - Excludes people living in institutions (prisoners serving long sentences, elderly permanently in retirement homes) — in accordance with accepted good practice for CPI compilation. - Does not cover households outside the urban centers nor residents of Zanzibar — partial geographical coverage not in accordance with international standards. - CPI basket includes all final consumption expenditure by households as defined in 1993 SNA, including own-account production of agricultural products, but excludes consumption of other goods produced on own account. - Excludes household expenditure for business purposes. - In contrast to 1993 SNA but in line with ILO recommendations at time basket was chosen, excludes: - services of owner-occupied dwellings, - illegal goods and services, gambling, - life insurance, pension funds, and financial intermediation services indirectly measured, - second-hand purchases, - expenditures of residents abroad. - Note: "The purchase by households of dwellings with the objective to use it as their permanent residence is also excluded from the scope of the Tanzanian CPI." ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - Grouping of goods and services in the CPI is consistent with Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) as given in the 1993 SNA. - No specific classification such as the CPC or the CPA is applied to categorize goods and services by type. ### 2.4 Basis for recording - Market prices used to value flows and stocks: CPI measures prices households actually pay, including VAT and other net taxes; sales prices not taken into account (in line with ILO recommendations). - Recording on an accrual basis in the base year for own-account consumption: recorded when household used products rather than acquisition time — divergence from 1993 SNA transaction principle noted but deemed not to negatively affect robustness of current CPI. - Recurrent price observation records prices in the reference month when purchases are made; price quotes refer to the first half of the reference month only because price collection forms must be sent to headquarters by the 15th of the month. - Price collectors have freedom to collect prices at their convenience; this introduces "noise" negatively impacting index accuracy. - For volatile fresh food items, quotes are collected during three different consecutive days rather than spread across the month — reduces benefit of multiple observations. - Concentration of price observations in first half of month caused by slow mail transmittal; electronic data exchange between NBS offices could improve timeliness and relevance. - Grossing/netting: CPI does not take second-hand items into account and thus conforms with ILO recommendations regarding sales of existing goods. ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### 3.1 Source data - Main source for CPI weights: Household Budget Survey (HBS) conducted during December 1991 through November 1992. - HBS used National Master Sample developed for all household survey sampling; frame initially based on 1978 Population Census and updated with 1988 Population Census. - No business register used to select outlet sample for price collection; NBS relied on judgment of regional office staff. - Outlets are fixed but require frequent replacement; replacements not investigated for possible quality differences. - HBS frequency: up till now HBSs conducted every ten years; good practice indicates interval should not be more than five years. - Current CPI basket derived from 1991/1992 HBS should be considered too old. - NBS intends future HBSs on a quinquennial basis. - 1991/92 HBS details: - Covered whole mainland of Tanzania; collected household expenditure data over full year. - Geographically stratified to 292 enumeration areas. - Final sample size was 4,823 households, approximately equal split between urban and rural areas. - Nonresponse handled by replacement from a reserve list. - Data included goods/services purchased on markets and food items produced on own-account. - Critique of 1991/92 HBS-derived weights: - Food component in CPI basket was 71.2 percent and regarded as very high; clothing and footwear 3.7 percent; rented dwellings 3.9 percent. - For comparison: 1969 HBS food 47.0 percent; 1976/77 HBS food 64.2 percent. - 2001/2002 HBS (sample size 22,178 households) indicates food expenditures make up 65.4 percent of total consumption — broadly supports current CPI weights. - Price collection program: - Conducted by NBS regional office staff in twenty urban centers; monthly periodicity. - Market prices for fruits and vegetables sold in heaps collected by actual purchases during three consecutive days; purchased items weighted to determine unit price. - Other items priced via personal visits from up to five outlets depending on availability. - Rental prices recorded for three categories of dwellings but no particular dwellings selected; recorded according to general knowledge. - Rates for electricity, water, postage, telephone taken from producing entities. - Item coverage and units: - In 1995 NBS selected 212 items for price collection; item with largest weight: rice (4.525 percent); smallest weight: women’s blouses (0.007 percent). - Units of measurement standardized (1 kilogram, 1 meter, one package of 20, one room, etc.), but most items not further specified; price collection forms lack column for detailed item characteristics. - Lack of item specification (e.g., "biscuits") can lead to undue price variations when different product types are priced across periods; known problem with no indications of remedial measures. - No ad hoc surveys supplement regular price survey program; new products incorporated in CPI only on change of base year; NBS does not monitor press or research papers for consumer price information. - Source data adjustments: - No special procedures developed to adjust main source data to conform to CPI requirements (e.g., no corrections made on 1991/92 HBS for probable underreported categories such as tobacco and alcoholic beverages (beer)). - Timeliness: - Expenditure estimates from HBS available with a lag of one year — adequate for CPI purposes. - Price collection usually timely; observations relate to only the first half of the month. - After the 15th of reporting month, regional offices must send data to head office for editing and data entry. - Usually not more than one urban centre out of twenty is so late that data cannot be incorporated in index calculation. ### 3.2 Statistical techniques - Commodity detail in base statistics sufficient for analysis of price movements. - CPI published broken down by 12 main COICOP groups. - Regional CPIs not compiled except for Dar es Salaam. - Weights closely approximate household consumption expenditure as defined in 1993 SNA with exceptions noted in section 2.2. - Index computation: - CPI computed according to the modified Laspeyres’ index. - Lowest short level indices determined by comparing simple average of prices observed for each basket item in each urban center with previous month. - Long-term price relatives form a link to reference period December 1994=100. - Weights normalized to December 1994 values to align expenditure weights and base price period. - In aggregation, data from urban centers weighted by average population in these centers — practice noted as not sound (using regional population as weights in calculating national average prices criticized). - Operational procedures: - All calculations done in NBS headquarters. - Average urban center prices calculated by hand as part of editing; imputations for out-of-season items made by hand. - Remaining calculations done by a LOTUS software program provided by the IMF. - Historical series and product updates: - Although weights derived from 1991/92 HBS, many decisions were made in 1995, preventing series start in 1992. - New series with December 1994=100 were calculated back until December 1992. - Present CPI has not been linked to former index using splicing methods to form historical series. - New products (e.g., cell phones) not introduced as they gain market share — current practice noted as problematic. - Treatment of missing or disappeared items: - Replacement items used when items temporarily disappear; no adjustment for probable quality differences. - If no replacement found, weight of permanently disappeared item distributed over remaining items. - If price for seasonal item missing in one urban center, imputed by price changes of that item in other regions. - If seasonal item not available in any urban center, its price is carried forward until it reappears. - Carrying forward prices indefinitely is not best practice, though may be acceptable for short periods in low inflation environments; preferable to impute missing prices by comparison with observed prices for similar items. - Documentation and institutional memory: - Section responsible for CPI does not keep adequate documentation of compilation methods; available descriptions lack details on choices regarding basket items. - Lack of sufficient institutional memory makes section vulnerable when experienced staff leave. *Source: _cr0482 - 1. Integrity (IMF PDF).* ### 3.3 Assessment and validation of source data ### 3.3 Assessment and validation of source data ### Source-data assessment practices - Source data include censuses, sample surveys, and administrative records and are "routinely assessed, e.g., for coverage, sample error, response error, and nonsampling error"; results are "monitored and made available to guide planning." - For the 1991/92 HBS: - "Nonresponse is not an issue as substitute households are used." - "Sampling errors for the survey were acceptable and made available." - "No post-enumeration surveys were held to help eliminate reporting errors." - For the price survey: - "Sampling errors are not available due to the judgmental nature of the selection of outlets and representative product items." - "Pricing items are insufficiently defined. Quotes are not necessarily collected on same day of every month. Base year obsolete. Item replacement without quality adjustment. Population used as weights. Incomplete documentation." (from associated assessment notes) ### Validation and verification procedures - Regional verification: - Although "the heads of the regional NBS centers should check the price collectors’ forms before these are sent to Dar es Salaam, in practice no verification takes place." - Headquarters validation: - "Headquarter staff validates all forms received by checking for obvious mistakes and the price change in comparison with the data for the previous month." - "In case of unlikely quotes, telephone contact is taken up with the regional offices." - Headquarter staff perform imputations for missing prices "where appropriate." - Fabrication and in-person checks: - "The persistent problem caused by the fabrication of price quotes by the regional collectors has been noted in the past. The authorities indicated that this problem remains." - Decision taken: headquarter staff should travel four times a year to the regional centers to verify reported prices; for "19 urban centers outside Dar es Salaam, this would amount to 76 visits." - In practice, "hardly any such verifications have taken place" due to "work pressure on headquarter staff related to the extensive census and survey program." - "Form validation at Headquarters [was] brought down to a minimum during the last year." ### Intermediate data and output validation - Cross-index comparison: - "The CPI is not compared with other major price indices such as the PPI; the differences in definition and scope is considered too large to make such an exercise worthwhile." - "Price indices for foreign trade are not available." - Post-entry checks: - "After data entry, the basic CPI data are checked for possible mistakes." - "Before the data are released, again verification takes place to ensure that no mistakes entered the index results because of failures in the automatic data processing." - "Statistical discrepancies are not part of the compilation process." ### Revision studies and practices - HBS revisions: - "An extensive analysis is made whenever a new HBS is prepared. The results of this analysis are published." - "New Household Budget Survey will soon lead to a change in the base year." (assessment note) - Monthly price-data revisions: - "Revisions to the monthly price data are extremely rare." - Prices "may be revised during the editing process" and imputations for late regional data "might generate information to improve the imputation process," but "in practice, standard fixed procedures are used to make such imputations." - Publications: - "A fairly extensive note dated January 2001 describes the sources and methods for the CPI including the revisions made. This note is available to the public." - The last comprehensive CPI publication "dates back to June 1995." ### Key operational and quality issues identified - Persistent misreporting/fabrication of price quotes by regional collectors. - Inadequate regional verification and limited headquarters field visits (target 76 visits not realized). - Validation at headquarters reduced "to a minimum during the last year" because of competing workloads. - Insufficient documentation and outdated base year. - Lack of comparison with other price indices (PPI, foreign trade indices). - Statistical discrepancies are neither systematically part of compilation nor routinely investigated beyond ad hoc checks. - Imputation procedures for late regional data follow "standard fixed procedures" with limited learning from revisions. *Source: _cr0482 - 3.3 Assessment and validation of source data* ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2.1 Staff, financial, and computing resources are commensurate with statistical programs - Staff resources: - Overall staff resources "fall somewhat short" of what would be needed to undertake extensive analysis or to expand the statistical system. - For the current PPI program sufficient staff is available. - For certain big operations, arrangements exist to borrow staff from other departments or to hire temporary workers. - The NBS considers the qualification of its staff to be adequate. - Training is largely on-the-job; limited opportunities exist for formal training on international guidelines and best practices. - Staff turnover is "very small"; NBS has been successful in retaining a core contingent of trained staff. - Since acquiring Government Executive Agency status in 1999, NBS introduced a salary structure that "compares favorably with overall government" and improved staff morale. - Computing resources: - With donor help, computing resources are overall at a sufficient level and the software utilized is modern. - Most staff have a computer at their disposal. - Financial resources: - Until recently, financial resources were not sufficient in certain areas, causing publication delays and gaps (e.g., the Survey of Industrial Production was discontinued for several years). - Good progress has been made in securing a more solid financial basis for NBS operations, although improvements are still possible. - At the proposal of the President’s Office—Planning and Privatization (POPP), the government has guaranteed resources to compile an extensive set of core statistics. - Financing for other statistics must be obtained by "selling" statistical services to other institutions, notably foreign donors. - Financing outside government is also needed for overhead costs such as upkeep of buildings and basic facilities. ### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources are implemented - Management and planning: - NBS performs functions in accordance with commercial principles and must ensure revenues meet outgoings. - Strategic plans are developed for periods of three years ahead. - Emphasis is placed on development of managerial skills. - Progress of statistical work and financial achievements of planned activities are monitored. - Treasury requires regular reporting and conditions release of funds for the next quarter on satisfactory reporting. - Operational efficiency: - Editing is done as soon as possible after collection, preferably in the field. - Extensive use of computer-assisted checks on unlikely values. - Post-enumeration surveys are sometimes used as an additional check. ### 0.3 Quality awareness ### 0.3.1 Processes are in place to focus on quality - NBS mission statement emphasizes "relevant, reliable, and timely statistics, and a quality statistical service in general." - In 1999 NBS conducted extensive self-assessment on nine criteria using the European Foundations for Quality Management Excellence Model. - NBS uses the output-based Open Performance Review Appraisal (OPRAS) to appraise staff performance. ### 0.3.2 Processes are in place to monitor the quality of the collection, processing, and dissemination of statistics - Technical commissions may be instituted on an ad hoc basis for major statistical operations; commissions include donors, users, and providers and discuss questionnaires, timing, and dissemination timing. - NBS’s business plan is presented to the ministerial Advisory Board, which advises on: - the development and maintenance of a strategic framework, - setting objectives and priorities of the Bureau, - the acceptability of the annual reports and accounts, - the evaluation of the Bureau’s performance. - User feedback: - Feedback is encouraged in publications and via a suggestion box at head office. - Periodic users’ surveys are not conducted. ### 0.3.3 Processes are in place to deal with quality considerations, including tradeoffs within quality, and to guide planning for existing and emerging needs - Decisions account for tradeoffs within overall quality (example: availability of certain data for the opening of parliament influences priorities). - Introduction of commercial principles increased awareness of new and emerging data requirements. - At the request of the BoT, NBS is considering improving timeliness of certain statistical series. ### 1. Integrity ### 1.1 Professionalism - 1.1.1 Statistics are compiled on an impartial basis: - No formal provision explicitly addressing professional independence or prohibiting interference exists. - Government executive agency status implies distance from other government bodies. - The Statistics Act gives the Director General power to engage officers and employees as deemed necessary. - NBS does not feel its professionalism is unduly challenged by outside agencies. - Hiring and promotions follow transparency and competitiveness; outside assignments and presentations encourage professional competence. - 1.1.2 Choices of sources and statistical techniques are informed solely by statistical considerations: - NBS management considers itself completely free in choice of source data and statistical techniques. - Methodological choices are being collected under "Methods and Standards." - 1.1.3 The appropriate statistical entity is entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics: - NBS management sees clarifying misinterpretation as a task, but corrective action is infrequent in practice. ### 1.2 Transparency - 1.2.1 Terms and conditions are available to the public: - The Statistics Act is available in the NBS library; the website includes a profile summarizing vision, mission, and legal foundations. - 1.2.2 Internal governmental access prior to release is publicly identified: - There is "extensive internal government access" prior to release to receive comments and accommodate urgent political needs. - This access is identified, but "probably not to its full extent," in the IMF’s DSBB website; national publications do not reference internal government access. - 1.2.3 Products are clearly identified: - NBS products are clearly identified; external publications using NBS data include appropriate notes identifying NBS as the source. - NBS does not actively request attribution; nonattribution is not an issue in practice. - 1.2.4 Advance notice of major changes: - NBS has not yet developed a standard procedure to give advance notice of major methodological changes. - Main users are likely aware of changes through informal briefings at interagency meetings. ### 1.3 Ethical standards - 1.3.1 Guidelines for staff behavior: - The Civil Service Standing Orders, 1994 includes a Code of Conduct applicable to all government employees. - NBS has developed a Code of Ethics to be attached to NBS Staff Regulations. - Staff are informed about ethical standards during the first week of employment. - Ethical conduct may be addressed at the annual one-day meeting for all staff. ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - 2.1.1 Overall structure: - The PPI measures the average change in the selling prices received by manufacturing enterprises that on average have a labor force of 50 persons or more. - Averaging of price changes uses output values as weights. - Definition of output for PPI is consistent with 1993 SNA concepts; it refers to industrial output without distinction by type of use and includes production for own account. - More sophisticated PPIs (input price, stage of processing) are not compiled. ### 2.2 Scope - 2.2.1 Scope vs. good practices: - The PPI falls short in three respects: - Coverage limited to the Tanzania mainland, excluding Zanzibar. - Covers exclusively manufacturing; good practice would include mining and public utilities and preferably transport and business services. - Measures prices only for large establishments (more than 50 workers); a large proportion of manufacturing output is produced by smaller establishments. ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - 2.3.1 Consistency with standards: - Tanzanian PPI by activity is classified by ISIC Rev. 2; current standards recommend ISIC Rev. 3. - Units are the "establishment" type, conforming with recommendations. - PPI by product does not follow any specific commodity classification. ### 2.4 Basis for recording - 2.4.1 Market prices: - Tanzanian PPI measures changes in market prices. - Annual Survey of Industrial Production asks for sales price "excluding indirect taxes, rebates, discounts, and drawbacks." - Quarterly Survey asks for selling prices "excluding sales tax and VAT." - Methodological documents state ex-factory prices are used, but questionnaires do not ask for such valuation. - None of these price formulations conform exactly with either basic price or producer’s price as defined in the 1993 SNA. - "In practice, though, the influence of such deviations on the PPI may be limited." - 2.4.2 Recording on accrual basis: - PPI measures prices of sales effected "in the middle of the month." - 2.4.3 Grossing/netting procedures: - Grossing/netting issues mainly arise in stage of processing indices; no such indices are produced. - Transactions between establishments of the same enterprise are, in principle, recorded gross, but such transactions are "extremely rare" in Tanzania. ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### 3.1 Source data - 3.1.1 Comprehensive data collection programs: - Distinction between weights and recurrent price sources: - Weights derived from list of industrial establishments generated by the 1989 Census of Industrial Production and updated by NBS regional offices. - Of some 330 establishments with 50 employed persons or more, 1992 output values by main commodities were collected via the Annual Survey of Industrial Production. - A few establishments with less than 50 workers were included to assure representation of all four-digit ISIC groups. - Together, enterprises in the index accounted for about 85 percent of manufacturing output in the formal sector according to the 1989 Census. - Output values for 1992 formed the weights during 1993–1995 when a fixed-based Laspeyres formula was used. - Since 1996 the index has been computed as a chained Laspeyres index; data for annual reweighing can be derived from the Quarterly Survey of Industrial Production, which asks for output quantities and selling prices. - Source data for recurrent prices is the Quarterly Survey of Industrial Production; this survey is conducted quarterly but generates monthly price quotes. - No ad hoc surveys are conducted to supplement these sources. - 3.1.2 Approximation to required definitions and scope: - Definitions of weights and prices are consistent with PPI estimates. - Source scope shares PPI limitations: exclusion of Zanzibar, no collection beyond manufacturing, restriction to large formal sector establishments. - NBS plans to expand PPI to include mining, quarrying, electricity, and water. - Activity classification used is ISIC Rev. 2 (outdated). - Time of recording sale prices is the 15th of the month, consistent with PPI requirements. - No measures are taken to eliminate quality changes from price changes; absence of narrow commodity definitions leads to unit value index characteristics prone to incorrect price measurement and biases over time. - 3.1.3 Timeliness: - Source data are "not timely enough" to comply with GDDS recommendations. - Price data for the first month of a quarter have a delay of two months plus another month for communication and processing. - Authorities indicate response rate is "good (90–98 percent)," but late responses may require imputation for long periods, sometimes up to one year. - About "three to five percent" of prices for the most recent quarter may have to be imputed. ### 3.2 Statistical techniques - 3.2.1 Data compilation: - Index compiled in detail for 37 activity groups and 196 commodities. - Elementary indices defined for individual establishments and commodities; lowest-level weights are base period output values for distinct commodities in each selected establishment. - Aggregation uses the chained Laspeyres formula. - Chaining implies weights in any year are formed by output values recorded for the previous year; annual rebasing allows review of enterprises and commodities. - Examples of changes at introduction of chaining: fish fillet, malt, and pharmaceutical products were incorporated; canned meat, baby food, and razor blades were eliminated. - Removals/additions were made by redistributing weights of the affected group; base period prices of newly added commodities were imputed assuming they followed historic price changes of other items in their group. - At inception, no alignment was made between the original weight reference period (full year of 1992) and the price reference period (December 1992); such alignment should have been made per good practice. - Base year for PPI has not been changed since 1992; introduction of chained indices made exact base year less important. - Missing prices methodology: - Temporary missing prices: carry-forward last quoted price (acceptable for short periods but not adequate for long absences). - Preferred method would impute price change based on observed changes for similar products. - No specific methodology for seasonal products (seasonality not a feature of manufacturing). - After 1996, no further replacements have been made for permanently missing prices and no new products within PPI scope have been introduced. - 3.2.2 Other statistical procedures: - No specific adjustments are made to align basic statistics with international guidelines for PPI compilation. - Tanzanian PPI covers only a minor section of the total market economy; alternative statistics exist for agriculture, mining, and public utilities. - Generally no reliable producer prices are available for the informal sector, establishments with ten to 50 persons, and most producers of market services. - The PPI section does not keep adequate documentation of compilation methods; "no detailed description is available on the" (text ends). *Source: _cr0482 - 0.2 Resources* ### introduction of the chained Laspeyres formula. The lack of institutional memory makes the ### _cr0482 - introduction of the chained Laspeyres formula. The lack of institutional memory makes the ### 3.3 Assessment and validation of source data - Source data (censuses, sample surveys, administrative records) are "routinely assessed" for coverage, sample error, response error, and nonsampling error; results are monitored and made available to guide planning. - Headquarters edits source data received from NBS’s regional offices by comparing the last reported three months with the results of the previous quarterly return. - Clarification of unlikely prices is sought from producers, nearly exclusively by telephone; such contacts "have been rare during the past year." - Reported prices "tend to remain stable during long periods of time"; outliers are limited and usually obvious mistakes. - Quarterly Survey of Industrial Production responses are compared with annual survey responses. - Occasional headquarter staff visits to establishments occur to discuss reporting problems. - Most corrections concern imputation of missing prices; the computer program allows headquarter staff to add comments with the stored basic data. ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - 3.4.1 Main intermediate data are validated against other information where applicable: - Before publication, infrequently a comparison is made with the consumer price index. - No validation is performed against export prices; "definition differences are considered too large." - 3.4.2 Statistical discrepancies in intermediate data are assessed and investigated: - Unusual fluctuations trigger investigations into data accuracy and explanations (example: investigations into falls in prices for textiles and soap). - Results of these studies were not publicized, though external agencies expressing concerns were informed. - No official publication of the Producer Price Index (Manufacturing Sector) has taken place since the third quarter of 1995, hindering dissemination of investigations. - 3.4.3 Statistical discrepancies and other indicators of problems in outputs are investigated: - All higher level activity and product-group indexes are derived from lower level indexes; "hence there are no statistical discrepancies." ### 3.5 Revision studies - 3.5.1 Studies and analyses of revisions: - The three months received with the most recent quarterly survey are regarded as provisional. - Reporting enterprises "revise the reported value and volume data very rarely." - Revision studies mainly investigate prices imputed by the NBS for months with no reports when later reported prices become available. - Even when imputations are routinely assessed, "this does not feed into the imputation process for subsequent periods." - Results of investigations are not publicized. ### 4. Serviceability — Relevance and Timeliness - 4.1 Relevance: - No established periodic consultation process with policy departments, private sector, universities, or external agencies to assess users’ needs for the PPI. - 4.2 Timeliness and periodicity: - Dedicated NBS publication Producer Price Index has not been disseminated after January 1996 (data for the third quarter of 1995). - Draft tables containing data for the twelve months of the year are prepared annually and stored in the NBS library; available on request. - Draft tables for January through December 2000 were ready in February 2001. - PPI series are made available on a quarterly basis to three or four main users; example: data for the first quarter of 2002 were provided to these users in July 2002 (late distribution caused by exceptional circumstances). - Annual and quarterly drafts "cannot count as publications in the sense of the GDDS." - The Statistical Abstract (in principle annual) includes a table with PPI information; first draft for 2001 was available in September 2002, official hardcopy expected by January 2003. - The Statistical Abstract has not been published since the issue for 1994; conclusion: "the Tanzania PPI is not yet disseminated to the general public." - 4.2.2 Periodicity: The Statistical Abstract for 2001 will include PPI broken down by three-digit ISIC major activity groups for only four months (March, June, September, and December 2001), which "falls short of the GDDS recommendation to disseminate the PPI with a monthly periodicity." ### 4.3 Consistency - 4.3.1 Internal consistency: - PPI series are internally consistent: all-items aggregate for indices by activity equals all-items aggregate by type of commodity. - 4.3.2 Time consistency: - Consistent time series calculated using the chain-linked method are available for 1996 through 2001. - 4.3.3 Consistency with other sources: - PPI data are "in line with national accounts deflators of production" and directly feed the national accounts compilation. ### 4.4 Revision policy and practice - 4.4.1 Revisions follow regular schedule: - Provisional monthly data may be revised over the same calendar year; revisions are not applied to earlier periods. - This revision policy is known to major users but "not made explicit in text accompanying the data sent to them." - NBS intends to change base year every ten years; current series base year (1992) will be changed to 2002. - Introduction of chained indices (annual adaptations of index weights since 1996) allows new weights and new products to be introduced gradually, "diminishing significantly the importance of a change of base year." - 4.4.2 Preliminary data identification: - Preliminary data are not identified as such. - 4.4.3 Publication of revision studies: - Studies of revisions in monthly data (replacement of estimated by reported figures) are not made. - The change of base year in 1992 produced a short analysis; introduction of chained indices has not led to publication of analyses. ### 5. Accessibility — Data accessibility, metadata, and assistance - 5.1 Data accessibility: - 5.1.1 Presentation: PPI tables in the draft Statistical Abstract are easy to understand and indicate geographic restriction to the Tanzania mainland and that "December 1992 equals 100 in the index." - Former dedicated publication contained a "What is new in the report" section with explanations and bar charts; similar explanatory comments are not attached to currently available tables. - 5.1.2 Dissemination media: Dissemination is "exclusively informal." Few major users are adequately served; the general public is not. - 5.1.3 Release schedule: Statistical series are not released according to a pre-announced schedule. - 5.1.4 Simultaneous availability: PPI is not made available to all users at the same time; important users receive quarterly data and draft tables that others may not see. - 5.1.5 Nonpublished subaggregates: All subaggregates are made available in detailed index tables, "even to the point of revealing some data (for instance prices for particular brands of cigarettes) that should be treated as confidential." - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: - 5.2.1 Documentation: Most extensive methodological description is provided in the GDDS metadata posted on the DSBB; authorities update it "albeit with several months’ delay." - The foreseen hyperlink from the NBS website to the IMF site "is not yet established." - On request, a three-page methodological description can be obtained from the NBS explaining the index formula and principle of chaining, but "many details that could interest a sophisticated user are not addressed." - 5.2.2 Level of detail: Apart from the three-page description, there are no brochures for general users. - 5.3 Assistance to users: - 5.3.1 Contact person: Official NBS publications indicate how to contact the Bureau; releases do not indicate specific individuals for PPI queries. Prompt and knowledgeable support is available in person; assistance is not monitored through surveys. - 5.3.2 Catalogs: NBS is setting up a section on marketing statistical products; "no Catalogs of publications are available." ### Data Quality Assessment Framework — Summary observations (Table 3 excerpts) - Key scores and notable comments (symbols: NA, O, LO, LNO, NO): - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: marked X - 0.2 Resources: marked X - 0.3 Quality awareness: marked X - 1.2 Transparency: marked X — comment: "Internal government access is only partially identified. Advance notice of major changes in methodology, sources, and techniques is not given." - 2.2 Scope: marked LNO — comment: "Only manufacturing is covered. The survey is limited to large establishments. Zanzibar is excluded. Coverage will be expanded to include mining and quarrying, electricity and water (medium-term)." - 2.3 Classification/Sectorization: marked LO — comment: "ISIC Rev.2 is used instead of ISIC Rev.3. The ISIC Rev. 2 will be replaced by ISIC Rev. 3 (short-term)." - 2.4 Basis for recording: marked X — comment: "Prices are not clearly defined." - 3.1 Source data & 3.2 Statistical techniques: marked X — comments: "Quality changes are not distinguished from price changes. Collection of data is quarterly instead of monthly. Base year obsolete. No regular introduction of new products. Last quotes are carried forward if prices are missing. Documentation incomplete." - 3.5 Revision studies: marked X — comment: "Analysis of revisions does not feed into imputation process." - 4.1 Relevance: marked X — comment: "There is no periodic monitoring of user needs." - 4.2 Timeliness and periodicity: marked X — comment: "There is no dissemination to the general public." - 4.4 Revision policy and practice: marked X — comment: "Preliminary data are not identified. There are no studies made on the occasion of major revisions." - 5.1 Data accessibility: marked X — comment: "There is semi-exclusive provision of data to preferred users. There is no pre-announced release schedule." - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: marked X — comment: "Availability of documentation is not publicized. There are no metadata for nonspecialist users." - 5.3 Assistance to users: marked X — comment: "There are no Catalogs. No specific contact is publicized for PPI data." ### IV. Government Finance Statistics — selected prerequisites of quality (excerpt) - 0.1.1 Responsibility for GFS: - No single agency explicitly assigned to compile GFS in line with GFSM 1986; Public Finance Act, 2001 (Article 5.1 (b)) assigns responsibility to supervise and monitor finances of the United Republic to the Minister of Finance. - The act requires the minister to present a full set of government accounts to the National Assembly "from time to time, but not less than annually." - Article 25 prescribes accounts that the Accountant-General must submit to the Controller and Auditor-General within six months after the end of each fiscal year. - Public Finance Regulations, 2001 mandate the Accountant General to prescribe basis of accounting and classification system, but do not specifically assign compilation and dissemination of GFS per international standards. - 0.1.2 Data sharing and coordination: - Data sharing and coordination among agencies producing government data are "adequate," but sharing/coordination with other users could be improved. - A Budget Ceiling Committee (representatives of all agencies compiling government data) meets regularly to discuss budget execution and government finances. - Budget Execution Report (Policy Analysis Department, MOF) depends on AGD, BoT, TRA for inputs. - Informal contact supplements formal meetings; relationship between compilers and other macroeconomic data producing agencies has not been formalized, causing inconsistencies. - Lack of electronic data-sharing network hampers compilation between MOF and National Bureau of Statistics. - Compilation of statistics was identified as a priority sector spending and received increased budget allocation in the June 2002 budget. - 0.1.3 Confidentiality: - Data on government finances are "not considered to be confidential" and are used in policy decision-making; official publications are obtainable from the government’s publications agency. - 0.1.4 Statistical reporting mandate: - The Permanent Secretary of the MOF has a legal mandate to request information from all government agencies (Public Finance Act, 2001 Articles 6.4 and 6.5), including authority to specify submission dates and formats. *Content derived from the provided IMF document excerpt.* ### 0.2 Resources ### _cr0482 - 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources — staff, financial, and computing resources - No resources are specifically dedicated to compiling GFS. - Resources to produce government finance data are limited. - Minister of Finance budget speech for 2002/03: “The shortage of technical and professional staff in government, including accountants, threatens to jeopardize the sustenance of the many reforms the government has implemented including in financial management.” - Training opportunities (workshops, seminars, courses) exist but are few due to budgetary constraints; employees may pursue higher studies while employed. - Expert consultants often initiate reforms and provide on-the-job training, but employees involved in compilation of government statistics have had no formal GFS training. - Integrated Financial Management System (IFMS) recently implemented for all budgetary accounts; envisaged to replace accounting systems of all extrabudgetary units. - Constraints on IFMS expansion: limited financial resources, limited computing resources, and lack of technical knowledge of computer systems. ### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources - Responsibility to compile the GFS is not specifically assigned. - Cost associated with compiling GFS is not yet measured. - Scarce consultant resources are not being utilized to ensure sustainability of compilation procedures. ### 0.3 Quality awareness — processes and monitoring - Participants focus on quality and strive to improve it; accountability to the public and internal financial management improvements have led to improved systems for compiling government finance data. - Data are produced from actual records in the government accounting system, which has clear rules and a code of conduct. Processes to monitor collection, processing, and dissemination: - Collection and processing are vested in the accounting system of government. - Public Finance Act, 2001 (Article 8): Paymaster-General appoints an Accounting officer for each expenditure vote; officer responsible and accountable for all revenue and expenditure of the vote and its recording. - Public Finance Regulations, 2001: Accounting officers must establish an effective internal audit service and an audit committee in each ministry, department, or agency; committees review all internal and external audit reports and advise on action. - Controller and Auditor-General (CAG) performs annual audits and examines financial reports; annual audit reports are submitted to parliament and discussed by the Public Accounts Committee. - Audited reports are available to the public at the government’s publications agency. Quality trade-offs and planning: - A trade-off between quality and availability of data is made (not communicated explicitly). - Comprehensive classification details for expenditure of extrabudgetary units and development funds are not available from current systems; central government data are presented without detailed classification of these amounts. - Comprehensive data on local government are not available; government finance statistics are therefore limited to the central government. - Plans are being developed to expand coverage to include government and comprehensive statistics on the nature of expenditure of extrabudgetary units. ### 1 Integrity — professionalism, transparency, ethical standards 1.1 Professionalism - Annual audited data are compiled on an impartial basis as required by the Public Finance Act, 2001; the Act stipulates national audit office officers shall “perform their functions without fear, favor or prejudice and that no person or authority shall interfere with or exert undue influence on them in the exercise of their powers or in the performance of their professional functions.” - Quarterly Budget Execution Report data are compiled by the PAD of the MOF from source data obtained from other departments and agencies. The PAD is also involved in the budget compilation process, which may compromise impartiality. - No statistical techniques are used in compilation because all disseminated data are obtained from actual accounting records. - Dissemination is accompanied by extensive analysis to minimize misuse or erroneous interpretation. The PAD official responsible for dissemination provides technical advice and explanations in publications and on request; comments on fiscal data are addressed through formal channels within the MOF. 1.2 Transparency - Public Finance Act, 2001 and Public Finance Regulations, 2001 are widely available to the public and contain general terms and conditions under which government finance data are collected; these terms are also disseminated on the DSBB. - No other documentation describing the collection, processing, and dissemination processes is publicly available. - Various monthly internal reports on government finances exist for financial management; they are available on request but not widely disseminated and internal access is not publicly identified. - All reports disseminated to the public are subject to formal approval processes, but the approval processes are not made public. - Government finance data disseminated by the PAD are usually accompanied by a footnote disclosing the origin of the statistics. - Explanations of major changes in methodology are disseminated with the data, but no advance notice is given; changes are disclosed by inserting a break in the time series explained by a footnote. 1.3 Ethical standards - Compilers of government finance data are not subject to a specific code of conduct for GFS compilers, but all government employees are subject to the Civil Service Department Standing Orders, 1994 (conditions of employment, code of conduct, disciplinary procedures). - Public Finance Regulations, 2001 govern the code of conduct of accounting officers (responsibilities, authority, accountability); misconduct is clearly defined, and under the Public Finance Act, 2000 (Article 44) any person convicted of an offense can be prosecuted. ### 2 Methodological soundness — concepts, scope, classification 2.1 Concepts and definitions - The overall structure in terms of concepts and definitions in use in Tanzania only partly adheres to GFSM 1986. - Compilation and dissemination of central government operations data are prescribed in the Guidelines for the preparation of medium term plan and budget framework (issued by the President’s Office—Planning and Privatization and used by MOF/PAD). - Revenue framework distinguishes between domestic revenue and grants (all grants received from foreign donors). - Expenditure framework distinguishes between recurrent expenditure and development expenditure; interest payments identified as a separate item in recurrent expenditure. - While classification of domestic revenue and recurrent expenditure broadly follows GFSM 1986, concepts/definitions of revenue, expenditure, lending minus repayment and financing differ from international standards in significant ways. - Data on central government operations are disseminated in multiple publications using the same source data but presented in different analytical frameworks, resulting in different definitions for the deficit of central government. Debt reporting and dissemination: - AGD of the MOF and BoT compile various debt reports, but a comprehensive report on total outstanding government debt compliant with international guidelines is not disseminated publicly. - Bank of Tanzania Economic Bulletin public debt data include: - Treasury Bills Auctions – Actual Sales by Transactors reporting flows denoted in Tanzania shilling (Table 2.4). - Central Government Outstanding Stocks, Bonds and Notes by holders reporting stocks at face value denoted in Tanzania shilling (Table 2.5). - External debt developments denoted in U.S. dollars with government external borrowing separately identified (Table 5.1). - AGD distributes a Monthly Domestic Debt Report summarizing Union government domestic debt (instrument, type of debt holder, origin of debt) to other government agencies but not to the public. - Debt Management Department (DMD) of the BoT compiles government external debt reports (mainly bilateral and multilateral loans negotiated by Union government); a few bilateral loans contracted directly by the government of Zanzibar are not included. - Authorities are engaged in initiatives to improve framework and classifications, but no plans to migrate to the GFS 2001 framework. 2.2 Scope - Disseminated summary data on central government operations cover revenue and expenditure of all budgetary units and extrabudgetary accounts. - Revenue collected by extrabudgetary funds is deposited in the central government account on a gross basis; detailed data on the nature of extrabudgetary expenditure are not available. - Expenditure includes transfers to Zanzibar, local governments and parastatals; scope does not include own revenue raised by local governments and matching expenditure financed by these revenues. - Approximately thirty per cent of local government total revenue is deemed to be own revenue raised. - Separate annual reports on local government financial position are available and presented to parliament, but local government financial year differs from central government, limiting consolidation to general government. - A project to develop local government quarterly reporting to the Office of the President, Regional Administration and Local Governments has been initiated to facilitate consolidation with central government data. - Data on all cash transactions of central government are available, but include grants received in kind. - Central government operations are presented according to a national analytical framework and do not cover the full scope recommended by GFSM 1986. Debt scope: - Data on central government gross debt classified by residency are available. - Domestic debt data cover all outstanding debt of the Union government. - Under Government Loans, Guarantees, and Grants Act No. 30 of 1974, only the Minister of Finance may contract debt on behalf of the government. - Only the Union government incurs foreign borrowing under the Union agreement; foreign debt data therefore cover Union government external debt. - Data on foreign liabilities include obligations to the IMF (liability of the BoT, but guaranteed by the government). 2.3 Classification/sectorization - Data on central government operations and debt are not fully consistent with international classification/sectorization recommendations. Specific deviations from GFSM 1986: - Revenue: - Distinction made between tax revenue and nontax revenue. - Nontax revenue includes capital revenue, repayments of loans extended for policy purposes, and revenue generated by government business enterprises on a gross basis. - GFSM 1986 recommends separating current and capital revenue; netting repayments of policy loans against loans extended; and recording only the net result of government business enterprises in the owning level accounts. - Expenditure: - Recurrent expenditure does not separately identify current and capital expenditure. - Wages and salaries in central government operations include salaries paid to local government employees without separate identification. - Wages and salaries of parastatals are included as a separate line in government payments for goods and services and transfers. - Loans extended for policy purposes are included in expenditure. - GFSM 1986 recommends separating current and capital expenditure; recording wages and salaries only for employees of that level of government; identifying unrequited payments to other levels of government separately; excluding policy lending from expenditure and reporting lending minus repayments separately. - Grants: - Grants include all receipts in cash and in kind, and the cash value of debt relief. - GFSM 1986 recommends recording grants received in kind as a memorandum item and recording debt relief as decrease in outstanding liabilities with a memorandum item explaining resulting discrepancies. - Development/project expenditure: - A detailed economic classification of development expenditure (project budget) is not available; international practice is to include this expenditure in the economic classification of total expenditure. - Financing and arrears: - Domestic financing transactions include net proceeds from the privatization fund; GFSM 1986 recommends recording receipts reducing equity and repayments of lending for policy purposes differently. - Domestic financing includes net change in arrears as financing activities; in a cash recording system, changes in arrears should be recorded as expenditure. - External debt guarantees: - Government external debt includes guarantees issued by central government for third-party liabilities; these amounts are relatively small. - International standards exclude debt guaranteed by government from outstanding government debt, but recommend noting guarantees as a memorandum item. Inter-subsector and intergovernmental transactions: - Transactions between units within subsectors and transactions with government units outside the central government (local governments and public corporations) are not clearly identified separately. - Economic classification data for revenue and expenditure of central government sub-sectors are not disseminated. - Administrative arrangements have not established clear dividing lines between transactions of different spheres of government. *Source: _cr0482 - 0.2 Resources (PDF chapter/section)* ### 2.4 Basis for recording ### 2.4 Basis for recording ### Recording basis and valuation - Prices used to value flows and stocks reflect actual or expected cash payments. - Central government operations are recorded in accordance with the GFSM 1986 on a cash basis. - Tax revenue is recorded when payments are received; nontax revenue is recorded when deposits are made. - Expenditure is recorded when checks are written or payments are made. - The difference between checks recorded and cleared with the bank is recorded in a revenue and expenditure “float.” The overall deficit is adjusted with these amounts to calculate the cash deficit that equals the net financing transactions. - Debt liabilities are recorded at face value (i.e., the amount to be repaid at the end of the contract), rather than market value (in accordance with the GFSM 1986). - Transactions in foreign currencies are converted to Tanzania shilling using the official exchange rate prevailing at the time of the transactions. - The stock of foreign debt is converted using the exchange rate prevailing at the end of the period to which it refers. ### Cash-basis recording and grossing/netting - All transactions are recorded when payments are made or received; recording is therefore on a cash basis in accordance with GFSM 1986. - Grossing/netting procedures: - Nonindustrial payments and receipts of central government are treated on a gross basis. - Corrective transactions on tax refunds and expenditure recovered are correctly netted against the appropriate class. - Contrary to international standards, lending and repayments transactions are treated on a gross basis and included in expenditure and revenue respectively. - Activities of departmental enterprises (e.g., the printing agency) are recorded on a gross basis rather than being netted before recording the net result in the accounts of the reporting government unit. ### Source data collection and coverage - Data collection programs are comprehensive for recurrent revenue and expenditure of budgetary accounts. - Data collection programs covering extrabudgetary expenditure and development expenditure are not available. - Recurrent revenue and expenditure of central government operations are obtained from administrative records of government systems. - Tax revenue data are compiled by the TRA from their administrative records. - Recurrent expenditure data are compiled by the AGD from records obtained from the IFMS. - Data on grants and donor funds are compiled from reports by ministries and from records of donors; comprehensive coverage is lacking and these data cannot be considered comprehensive. - Net domestic financing data are compiled by the BoT from BoT administrative records. - The Commonwealth Secretariat Debt Recording and Management System (CS-DRMS) shared by the BoT and AGD serves as the source for compiling external debt data. ### Source data conformity with definitions, classifications, valuation, timing - Source data for domestic revenue contain sufficient detail to classify revenue broadly in accordance with GFSM 1986, except for repayments of loans previously extended for policy purposes. - Recurrent expenditure source data are compiled in line with the country’s analytical framework and are not in compliance with GFSM 1986. - Detailed information on economic and functional nature of development expenditure and extrabudgetary units’ expenditure is not available from the present system. - Projects are in progress to improve availability of development expenditure data in accordance with GFSM 1986 and to derive local government revenue and expenditure data in accordance with GFSM 1986. - Timing of recording and valuation of source data are broadly consistent with GFSM 1986 concepts. ### Timeliness of source data and dissemination - Preliminary monthly data on central government operations are available for internal MOF use within three weeks after the end of the reference period. - Quarterly data disseminated to the public have a timeliness of four weeks after the end of the reference period. - All data are considered preliminary until completion of the audit of annual financial statements; audits are currently completed within eight months after the end of the fiscal year, after which data are revised and considered final. - Comprehensive local government data are published annually with a two-year lag after the reference period. - Timeliness of central government debt data published in the Bank of Tanzania Economic Bulletin is within 1–2 quarters after the reference period. - The PAD of the MOF is engaged in a project to publish quarterly reports on the comprehensive debt position of the central government within a month after the reference period; it is expected these reports will be published on the official website of the Tanzanian government, by the end of 2002. ### Statistical techniques, validation, and reconciliation - Data compilation is based on actual administrative records; no statistical estimation is routinely required for central government operations. - No consolidation process is followed because data include all transactions of budgetary and extrabudgetary accounts on a gross basis. - Wages and salaries of local governments are paid from budgetary accounts but are not identified separately; other transfers to local governments and public corporations are also not identified as transfer payments. - There is no need to employ estimations in calculation of central government operations because actual records cover transactions. - Data adjustments and reclassifications follow sound statistical techniques; actual outcomes are compared with previous years to derive a medium-term trend. - Reports (quarterly Budget Execution Report, monthly debt reports) are routinely assessed and monitored; deviations are investigated and data revised in the next publication when necessary. - The adjustment line between the overall deficit and net financing also serves as a monthly indicator of accuracy. This adjustment line amounted to 4.8 per cent of the deficit in fiscal year 2000/01. - Annual reconciliation of checks issued/received and checks cleared through the banking system is used as a built-in check. - Net financing data are annually reconciled with data on central government operations; the revenue and expenditure float is reconciled with outstanding checks and deposits on an annual base. - Differences in coverage and valuation of central government operations and central government debt prevent an accurate reconciliation of the stock of debt with the financing of central government. - Statistical discrepancies and other indicators of problems are investigated when they become apparent; there is no fixed revision schedule apart from annual finalization after audits. - Memorandums for files are prepared on revisions; internal audits and audit committees investigate discrepancies and suggest action plans. ### Serviceability: relevance, timeliness, periodicity, and consistency - Relevance and utility: - Usefulness of data for government and donors is monitored; relevance for other users is not monitored. - Central government operations data are used in determining and evaluating fiscal policy developments; main users include members of parliament, selected government committees, and donor agencies. - Timeliness and periodicity: - Quarterly disseminated central government operations data timeliness is four weeks after the reference period (complies with GDDS recommendation). - Detailed annual audited data become available within eight months after the fiscal year. - Monthly central government operations report (internal distribution) is available within three weeks after the reference month. - The PAD project aims to publish quarterly comprehensive debt reports within a month after the reference period (expected by end of 2002). - Periodicity of disseminated central government operations data is quarterly; monthly reports are for internal government use only. - Tanzania does not compile annual consolidated general government data due to lack of local government data; projects are underway to compile quarterly local government operations data by the end of 2002. - Consistency within and across datasets: - Major aggregates (total revenue, grants, recurrent expenditure, development expenditure) equal the sum of components, but an adjustment line is added to the deficit to match financing because of the revenue and expenditure “float,” reconciled only annually. - Total net domestic and foreign financing is calculated from BoT flows; domestic bank financing is derived from the monetary survey; nonbank financing is a residual after privatization receipts, amortization payments on parastatals’ debt assumed by central government, and change in arrears are accounted for. - Data on financing and government outstanding debt stock differ in coverage and valuation and are not reconcilable: debt data include all Union government debt recorded at face value; financing data cover Tanzania mainland and are recorded on a cash basis. - Datasets disseminated in various publications are inconsistent with respect to analytical frameworks and deficit/surplus definitions. - Previously released data are not adjusted for methodological changes, but breaks in time series are indicated where necessary; recent reforms (IFMS implementation, new procurement procedures, CS-DRMS for external financing) improved periodicity and timeliness without adversely affecting consistency over a reasonable period. - Central government operations data serve as input into national accounts but are not directly reconcilable due to fiscal-year vs. calendar-year conversions and supplemental local government information; quarterly central government operations data from fiscal 2001/02 onward will facilitate calendar-year compilation. - The monetary survey and central government operations cannot be reconciled due to coverage differences (monetary survey includes all central government accounts of the Union). - An unidentified amount of grants from foreign donors is not recorded in government accounts and grant nature is not identifiable; government grant data are not consistent with balance of payments statistics. *Source: _cr0482 - 2.4 Basis for recording* ### 4.4 Revision policy and practice ### 4.4 Revision policy and practice ### 4.4.1 Revisions follow a regular, well-established, and transparent schedule - Revisions during the year are performed routinely and do not follow a specific revision schedule. - When discrepancies from actual outturn become apparent, the origin is investigated and the data are revised in the relevant period; revised data are contained in the cumulative year-to-date totals of the next publication. - Corrective measures are initiated to avoid recurrence of the error or omission. - Annual data are revised once the audited results for all government accounts are available; these audit reports are available within nine months after the end of the fiscal year. - There is no specific release or formal announcement of the revisions, and revised data are not clearly identified as such. - Revisions of government finance data in various other publications are not effected simultaneously, resulting in discrepancies across publications. - There is no formal process in place for disseminating all revisions to users of data and other institutions reproducing the data. ### 4.4.2 Preliminary data are clearly identified - Preliminary data are not clearly identified; all data are considered to be preliminary until audited reports become available. - Budget documentation distinguishes budget estimates and actual outcomes, but the status of actual outcomes is not identified as audited or preliminary. - Various other publications containing government operations data also lack identification of audited/preliminary status. ### 4.4.3 Studies and analyses of revisions are made public - Studies and analysis of revisions are not formally undertaken and disseminated to the public. - Reasons for revisions are investigated but made available to the public only upon individual user inquiry; the public is not proactively notified of revisions or their causes. - The annual audited financial reports of government, which are considered the final revision of government data, are presented to parliament, discussed by the Public Accounts Committee, and can be obtained from the government publishing office. ### Accessibility — key findings related to revision and dissemination - Data on central government operations are disseminated in ways that facilitate interpretation and some comparisons but follow budget guidelines rather than the international accepted standard, resulting in difficulties with international comparability. - Central government debt data are presented in different currencies (domestic debt in Tanzania shilling; external debt in U.S.dollars), and comprehensive reports on total outstanding debt are only available for use within the government. - Dissemination media and formats: - Central government operations are disseminated electronically in the Budget Execution Report posted on the official website of the Tanzanian government (http://www.tz.gov) and in the quarterly Bank of Tanzania Economic Bulletin (http://www. BoT-tz.org). - The Annual Economic Survey produced by the President’s Office Planning and Privatization includes tables on central government operations. - Data on central government operations are submitted to the IMF for inclusion in the IFS. - The BoT disseminates central government debt data in the quarterly Bank of Tanzania Economic Bulletin (hard copy and electronic); the format is not comprehensive and does not portray total liabilities of government. - Dissemination of a comprehensive debt report on the official website of the Tanzanian government is under consideration (http://www.tz.gov). - Release schedules and access: - Annual government transaction data are released at the time of the Minister of Finance’s Budget Speech to parliament; the date of the budget speech is pre-announced and would normally be presented to parliament in June of each year. - There is no pre-announced schedule for quarterly data or an official list of forthcoming publications; the quarterly Budget Execution Report is released regularly with a timeliness of four weeks after the end of a reference period. - Quarterly release timing depends on compilation of monthly data, analysis and review against expected outcomes, and writing the budget execution review. - Quarterly data are made available to all users simultaneously without preferential treatment; monthly data are distributed to interested users upon request, but public dissemination that these reports are available upon request is not made. - Nonconfidential subaggregates are made available upon request, but the terms and conditions for provision are not disseminated to the public. - Metadata and user assistance: - Metadata describing central government operations and central government debt are disseminated only on the DSBB of the IMF; these metadata contain brief descriptions of concepts and classifications in use and broadly describe differences with international practice. - Metadata revisions, in principle, follow the annual cycle mandated by the GDDS, but there have been delays. - No detailed technical descriptions of methodology and compilation practices beyond those on the DSBB are available to the public. - Contact persons for central government operations and debt data are disseminated on the metadata pages of the DSBB; the Tanzanian government official website provides a general inquiries link that routes inquiries to relevant departments. - The Bank of Tanzania Economic Bulletin provides a general contact at the BoT; direct contact persons are not identified with specific data disseminated. - No catalogs of MOF publications, documents and other services, including information on any charges, are available. *Source: _cr0482 - 4.4 Revision policy and practice* ### 0.3 Quality awareness ### 0.3 Quality awareness ### Processes to focus on quality - The BoT seeks to exercise quality control at various stages of data production and dissemination. - For monetary statistics, the Banks Supervision Department verifies that data reporting practices followed by the banks are consistent with the regulations. - The Monetary and Financial Affairs Department implemented the ESIS to educate data suppliers of the importance of high-quality data, culminating in the establishment of the Data Processing Division within the Department. - No user surveys are conducted. ### Processes to monitor quality of collection, processing, and dissemination - The BoT undertakes data reviews to identify problems at the various stages of collection, processing and dissemination of data. - Meetings are periodically convened within the BoT to review existing monetary statistics and to identify emerging data requirements. - The Financial Programming Unit located in the Macroeconomic and Financial Programs Department checks intersectoral consistency of data. ### Tradeoffs and planning for existing and emerging needs - The BoT recognizes tradeoffs among dimensions of quality (for example between timeliness and accuracy/reliability). - Periodic internal reviews are used to guide responses to emerging data requirements. ### Integrity — Professionalism and transparency - Staff recruitment focuses on graduate and post-graduate qualifications in economics or related subjects; assignment structure encourages research and training, though staff time is largely devoted to statistical compilation. - BoT staff are required to refrain from political activities and from publishing views detrimental to the BoT or the government of Tanzania. - Statistics are compiled from BoT and commercial banks’ accounting data; no use of statistical techniques is involved in monetary statistics compilation. - The BoT may prepare replies through the Communications Department to prevent or correct misinterpretation in the press; such instances are rare. - The terms and conditions for collection, compilation and dissemination, including confidentiality obligations, are described in the BoT Act and are posted on the BoT website; copies are distributed to all banks and made available to the public free of charge from BoT headquarters. - There is no formal obligation to allow internal government access to monetary data prior to release; monetary data are occasionally provided to the Minister of Finance upon request, and the Commissioner of the Policy Analysis Department of the Ministry of Finance (as a Monetary Policy Committee member) receives monetary data prior to release. The fact of internal government access prior to release is not publicly identified. - The BoT is not identified on a consistent basis as the source of monetary statistics published in its publications. - No advance notices on major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques are provided. - All BoT staff must abide by Staff Regulations 2002; copies are available from the BoT library. ### Methodological soundness — Concepts, scope, classification, and recording - The BoT is adapting its analytical framework for the central bank survey and the depository corporations survey to the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM). - Key monetary survey aggregates: net bank credit to the central government; credit to the rest of the public sector; credit to the private sector; net foreign assets; currency with the public; demand deposits, time deposits and foreign currency deposits of residents. Division between foreign and domestic positions is based on the residency criterion. - Migration to MFSM is incomplete; a project is underway to introduce the detailed sectorization scheme prescribed in the MFSM. - The monetary survey covers the BoT and 20 commercial banks and includes: - (1) the BoT headquarters, - (2) BoT’s three domestic branches in the mainland Tanzania, - (3) the BoT Zanzibar, - (4) headquarters of 20 commercial banks, and - (5) resident branches of 20 commercial banks—including those in Zanzibar. - The monetary survey does not include rural banks and nonbank depository institutions. - Current resident sector subdivision lacks separate identification of local government, nonfinancial public enterprises, and other financial corporations. - Accrued interest on financial assets and liabilities is included in unclassified assets and liabilities rather than added to financial instruments sectorized by debtor or creditor sector as recommended by MFSM. - Financial instrument classification separately identifies: (1) Monetary gold and Special Drawing Rights; (2) Currency and deposits; (3) Securities other than shares; (4) Loans; but does not separately identify: (5) Shares and other equity; (6) Insurance technical reserves; (7) Financial derivatives; (8) Other accounts receivable/payable. - Repos are recorded as collateralized loans and treated as elements of unclassified assets and liabilities; data on repos are available upon request. - Valuation practices: - Monetary gold is valued at market prices (on a daily basis and at the London closing price). - Loans are valued at current book value without adjustment for expected loan losses. - Valuation adjustments (including holding gains and losses) are presented in the revaluation account. - Foreign securities are recorded at face values despite market price fluctuations. - Conversion of foreign-currency positions to domestic currency: - BoT and banks use the end-period average rate. - BoT carries out conversion daily; banks do it monthly. - Recording is done on an accrual basis and transactions are recorded simultaneously between parties. - Grossing/netting procedures conform with MFSM: claims and liabilities on a particular transactor are not netted; provisions against loans are shown on a gross basis; the monetary survey is obtained by canceling out interbank claims and liabilities while preserving claims on other financial corporations, other domestic sectors, and nonresidents. ### Accuracy and reliability — Source data, techniques, validation, and revisions - Central bank source data: balance sheet data prepared by BoT’s Domestic Accounts Department on a daily basis from a computerized ledger based on complete recording. - Commercial banks source data: individual returns collected monthly; reporting submission in duplicate to the Banks Supervision Department via hard copy or electronic diskette (no on-line submission). - The reporting format provides, by and large, sufficient detail to compile monetary statistics in conformity with MFSM guidelines except for sectorization. - No supplementary data sources are used; the bank reporting system covers the entire resident banking sector. - Source data reasonably approximate required definitions, scope, classifications, valuation, and time of recording, though sectorization in the report form is inadequate. - Timeliness of source data: - BoT balance sheet data are compiled on a daily basis with a lag of only one working day. - Commercial banks report data on a monthly basis with a lag of 15 days. - These arrangements enable the monetary survey to be compiled within three weeks. - Data compilation procedures minimize processing errors; the report form is designed to encourage computer processing and the computer program processes source data promptly. - No data adjustments and transformations are involved. - The Governor’s Office receives and assigns questions on monetary data to the Monetary and Financial Affairs Department; the Department uses responses to monitor accuracy and cross-checks against annual audited bank balance sheets, and undertakes measures when discrepancies are found. - No secondary data sources (e.g., financial market operations data, sample surveys) are used to check commercial banks’ balance sheets. - The Monetary and Financial Affairs Department identifies statistical discrepancies and, in collaboration with the Banking Department, investigates their sources. - Procedures exist for collaboration among the Monetary and Financial Affairs Department, Banking Department, Banks Supervision Department, Domestic Accounts Department and Domestic Markets Department to resolve problems posed by large or unexplained fluctuations in monetary or credit aggregates. - Monetary survey data are revised; revisions rarely affect major aggregates and usually focus on unclassified items of small magnitude. No revision studies are undertaken. ### Serviceability — Relevance, timeliness, and periodicity - The BoT undertakes internal consultations to ensure monetary statistics address users’ concerns but does not establish working groups with users nor organize user surveys. - Dissemination vehicle and timeliness: - The Monthly Economic Review is the primary vehicle for monetary data dissemination; the normal timeliness for the publication is one month, but occasional slippages cause long and variable delays. - Central bank and commercial bank data are disseminated within two to five months after the end-of-the-reference month. - This timeliness is not fully consistent with the GDDS, which requires: - (1) the monthly data on the central bank should be disseminated within one to two months after the end of the reference month; and - (2) the monthly data on commercial banks should be disseminated within two to three months after the end of the reference month. - Periodicity: - Central bank data periodicity is daily. - Commercial bank data periodicity is monthly. - GDDS requires monthly periodicity for both central bank and commercial bank data. *Source: _cr0482 - 0.3 Quality awareness* ### 4.3 Consistency ### _cr0482 - 4.3 Consistency ### 4.3 Consistency (Monetary statistics) - The BoT’s monetary statistics are internally broadly consistent. - Small discrepancies exist between the central bank’s and commercial banks’ data on interbank positions: - The BoT has no claims on commercial banks, and the commercial banks have no liabilities to the BoT. - Only a small discrepancy exists on banks’ deposits with the BoT. - Time series: - Broadly consistent time series data are available from December 1992. - When changes in methodology are introduced, historical series are reconstructed for only two years. - Revisions have tended to be small, with no significant impact on intertemporal consistency. - Methodological notes identify main breaks and discontinuities, their causes, and adjustments made. - For recent dates, unusual changes in economic trends are explained in analytical text in publications and the database. - Consistency with other statistical systems: - Monetary statistics are broadly consistent with balance of payments statistics, the international investment position, and government finance statistics. - Net foreign assets in monetary statistics are consistent with the corresponding measure derivable from the international investment position. - Transactions in net foreign assets in monetary statistics are broadly consistent with the corresponding measure derivable from balance of payments statistics; some differences attributable to valuation differences. - In government finance statistics, BoT records on the government position with the banking sector are used. ### 4.4 Revision policy and practice - Revisions schedule and practice: - Monetary statistics disseminated initially are provisional; provisional monetary survey data are revised. - Revisions rarely affect major statistical aggregates because they usually focus on unclassified items and tend to be of small magnitude. - Revision policy follows a predictable pattern; because revisions are relatively insignificant, no attempt is made to inform users of the revision cycle. - Identification of preliminary data: - Preliminary data are not consistently identified in all BoT publications. - Users are not always alerted that initially published data are preliminary and subject to revision. - Revised data are disseminated with the same level of detail as previously published data. - Revision studies: - No revision studies are undertaken because revisions rarely affect major aggregates and tend to be small. ### 5 Accessibility — Data accessibility - Presentation and dissemination: - Monetary statistics are published clearly with charts and tables to facilitate analysis. - Datasets with various levels of disaggregation are published; publications include analysis of current-period developments. - Long-term monetary series start December 1992 and are made available upon request. - Dissemination media and formats: - BoT publications: Monthly Economic Review, Quarterly Economic Bulletin, Annual Economic and Operations Report. - These publications are available on the BoT’s Internet website (http://www. BoT-tz.org). - Release calendar and simultaneity: - The BoT does not disseminate an advance release calendar for monetary data. - Once the Governor has approved the Monthly Economic Review it is sent to publishers; between approval and publication copies are given to all major newspapers in Tanzania and to selected embassies. - Monetary statistics are not released simultaneously to all users. - Nonpublished subaggregates: - Subaggregates not published are made available upon request approved by the Governor. - Requests for unpublished subaggregates have been rare. ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - Documentation and metadata: - All BoT publications containing monetary statistics include some notes and/or footnotes about data and methodology. - The only metadata on monetary statistics available are those from the Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). - No attempt is made to develop metadata at various levels adapted to different audience needs. - Levels of detail: - Metadata on monetary statistics are available from the DSBB, but not from national publications. ### 5.3 Assistance to users - Contact and assistance: - A contact person is identified in the GDDS metadata, but not in BoT publications. - User requests for clarification are channeled to the Monetary and Financial Affairs Department. - Catalogs and charges: - A Catalog of publications is available on the BoT’s Internet website (http://www. BoT-tz.org). - All BoT publications are free; BoT provides assistance needed to place orders. ### Table 5 — Data Quality Assessment Framework — Key assessment findings and planned improvements (Monetary Statistics) - Integrity: - Pre-release access to data by the Minister of Finance is not publicly identified. - BoT is not identified consistently as a source of monetary statistics in its publications. - Advance notice on major methodological, source data, and statistical changes is not provided. - Methodological soundness: - The full range of sectors and categories of financial instruments not identified. - Coverage of the depository corporations survey limited to the commercial banking sector. - Monetary statistics do not provide adequate information on sectoral distribution of domestic credit and no information on sectoral distribution of accrued interest. - Plan: BoT will introduce a detailed breakdown of domestic credit and of accrued interest by all appropriate sectors (medium-term). - Foreign securities are not valued at market prices. - Accuracy and reliability: - Source data do not provide adequate information on sectoral distribution of domestic credit. - Plan: BoT will revise the bank report form to reflect a detailed breakdown of assets and liabilities by all appropriate sectors (medium-term). - No revision studies are undertaken. - Serviceability: - User surveys are not conducted. - Slippages in the monthly publication cycle for the Monthly Economic Review occasionally occur. - Preliminary data are not identified on a consistent basis. - Accessibility: - Advance calendar for release of data is not disseminated. - Monetary statistics are not released simultaneously to all users. - No metadata is available from national publications. --- ### Balance of Payments Statistics — Selected prerequisites and quality matters ### 0.1 Legal and institutional environment - Responsibility and mandate: - The Bank of Tanzania (BoT) is the agency responsible for compiling the balance of payments statistics for the United Republic of Tanzania. - Section 47 (1) of the Bank of Tanzania Act (BoT Act) of 1995 specifies BoT responsibility for collecting statistics on banks and other financial institutions, but the Act does not specify that BoT is responsible for collecting, processing, and disseminating data on balance of payments. - Data sharing and coordination: - Data sharing among compiling agencies is generally adequate, but there is no formal system of coordination between compiling agencies or between relevant BoT departments. - Successful multi-agency projects (joint travel surveys; surveys of private sector capital flows and stocks) have used the authority of the Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). - Confidentiality: - Respondents’ data are kept confidential and used for statistical purposes only. - Section 47 (2) of the BoT Act: “... no information shall be published which would disclose the financial affairs of any customer of a bank or financial institution unless his written consent has been first obtained by the Bank.” - Procedures to prevent disclosure: staff rules, summary dismissal for violations, restricted access, and password protection in software. - Statistical reporting mandate and enforcement: - BoT Act requires all banks to report data to the BoT; supplementary regulations require reporting twice a month and within 15 days after the end of the reference period. - Bureau de change must report once a month within 15 days after the reference month. - Section 47 (4) of the BoT Act permits penalties: “a penalty charge of not less than five hundred thousand shillings per day for every day in which the failure continues” and recovery mechanisms are specified. - The BoT Act does not give clear authority to collect data from entities other than banks and financial institutions; this hinders data collection from nonfinancial entities for balance of payments compilation. ### 0.2 Resources - Staffing and qualifications: - Current number of staff in the balance of payments division of the International Economic Department (IED) expanded from four to eight. - IED recruits staff competitively; professional positions regarded as eligible only for candidates with Master’s degrees in economics and related subjects. - Newly recruited staff receive a two-week orientation working in the other five departments of the DEP. - Two members of staff have attended IMF balance of payments courses in Washington. - Staff have attended regional workshops, e.g., the 2001 workshop sponsored by CREFSA. - Selected staff may take paid leave to pursue higher degrees; BoT pays tuition and requires a bond to remain in BoT employment for a minimum period of five years after degree completion. - Retention of staff is not considered a problem. - Computing and financial resources: - Computer resources are adequate and computerized systems for data compilation are in place. - Financial resources are allocated through the annual budget review process and considered adequate. - Efficiency measures: - Annual departmental budgets and work objectives are discussed and reviewed to eliminate overlaps. - Progress monitored by the Director of DEP; summary reports posted on the BoT’s internal website. - Shared database network Economic Statistics Information System (ESIS) used for interdepartmental data posting and cross-checking. ### 0.3 Quality awareness - Quality focus and monitoring: - Recognition within BoT that statistics must have user confidence; one DEP objective is data quality improvement. - ESIS facilitates cross-checking of related data. - Quality control processes in place at every stage of data production and dissemination. - IED monitors bank reporting practices for consistency with guidelines; misclassification remains a problem. - All levels of IED and DEP participate in review prior to publication, but incorrect data have been published on several occasions and inconsistencies within tables and between datasets have not been addressed. - Feedback and planning: - No processes in place to obtain feedback from users of balance of payments statistics on data quality issues. - Annual budget and work plans address quality issues (improving data sources, training seminars for data reporters, etc.). - The Financial Programming Unit within the MFPD checks cross-sectoral consistency of macroeconomic datasets. *Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2004/_cr0482.pdf* ### 1. Integrity ### 1. Integrity ### 1.1 Professionalism - Statistics are compiled on an impartial basis: - The BoT Act does not specifically guarantee professional independence, but the BoT is not required to submit balance of payments statistics to any civil servants or ministers for approval prior to dissemination; the decision to release the data is made entirely within the BoT. - Staffing and recruitment: - Recruitment focuses on staff with graduate and post-graduate qualifications in economics or related subjects. - BoT staff are required to refrain from participating in political activities and from publishing views detrimental to the interests of the BoT or the government of Tanzania. - Source and technique choices: - Decisions about data sources and statistical techniques are made solely on the basis of statistical techniques. - Commenting on erroneous interpretation: - IED staff monitor the financial press daily and would prepare replies to misinterpretations via the Communications Department of the Directorate of the Governor’s Office; no such situation has arisen to date. ### 1.2 Transparency - Terms and conditions publicly available: - The BoT Act is posted on the BoT website; copies are distributed to all banks and other financial institutions and made available free of charge from BoT headquarters. - Metadata on the IMF’s DSBB describe terms and conditions for collection and dissemination. - Internal governmental access prior to release: - No formal obligation exists to allow internal government access prior to release. - GDDS metadata on the IMF’s DSBB state there is no internal government access and that data are released simultaneously to ministries and the public. - In practice, data are provided to government ministries and agencies (NBS, MOF, POPP) about two weeks prior to public release; the public is not informed of this internal access. - Identification of statistical products: - The IED is identified in footnotes to balance of payments tables published in BoT publications. - In the annual Economic Survey published by the POPP, the BoT is listed as the source but the IED is not identified. - Advance notice of major methodological changes: - No formal advance notice is given of major changes. - Notice of major changes has been given in BoT publications at the time changes were introduced (examples cited: move to BPM5 methodology in 1996; introduction of the ITRS in 1998). ### 1.3 Ethical standards - Staff behavior guidelines: - Staff Regulations 2002 set out a clear set of ethical standards; prepared, updated and circulated by the Personnel Management Department of the Directorate of Personnel and Administration. - Staff Regulations 2002 is posted on the BoT internal website and copies are available to all staff from the BoT library. - All BoT staff are required to abide by these regulations; new staff are made aware of them when they join the BoT. ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - Overall structure: - Broadly in line with the fifth edition of BPM5. - Departures from BPM5 standards: - Treatment of interest and amortization arrears: - Debit data on Other Investment income (interest) and loan liabilities included in published aggregates are not equal to the sum of (i) actual interest and loan repayments (amortization payments) made, and (ii) arrears on interest and loan repayments. - Amounts included are the interest and loan repayments scheduled to have been paid during the period, based on projections for an extended period (such as a year) provided by the DMD. - Until 2002 updated information on scheduled payments was not entered into the balance of payments compilation system, reportedly due to a misunderstanding about the nature of the long-term projections. - Result: debit amounts for Income and Other Investment have been understated in the published aggregate data. - Reported corrective action: balance of payments statistics for 2002 will reportedly use the correct methodology. - Reserve assets: - Reserve assets include the BoT’s holdings of nonconvertible currencies, contrary to international standards; these holdings are reportedly insignificant. ### 2.2 Scope - General coverage: - In principle covers cross-border transactions of the whole territory of the United Republic of Tanzania, including mainland, Zanzibar, and embassies abroad. - Incomplete coverage areas (explicit items): - Goods: - Unrecorded trade (primarily smuggling): exports of coffee to Uganda, cloves and tanzanite to Kenya, imports of sugar from Malawi and Zambia are not included. - Services: - Transactions arising from construction of the new United States embassy by resident construction enterprises are not included; likely relatively significant in the next few years. - Other transactions of foreign embassies and international organizations with Tanzanian residents are not included. - Income: - Data on FDI reinvested earnings and portfolio investment income are not covered. - A 2000 survey of private sector foreign capital flows and stocks indicated FDI dividends and interest payments are being significantly under-recorded. - Current transfers: - Data do not include workers’ remittances; remittances made through the banking system may be included but possibly misclassified under services or compensation of employees. - Capital transfers: - Counter-entries for migrant transfers in kind included in exports and imports are not included in capital transfers. - No data on migrant transfers in cash are included under capital transfers; those transacted through the banking sector may be included but misclassified. - Acquisition/disposal of nonproduced, nonfinancial assets: - No data reported; transactions through the banking system may be included but misclassified. - Portfolio investment: - No portfolio investment data included, though the 2000 survey indicates inward portfolio investment transactions exist. - Over-coverage: - Instances of double-counting: nonresident donor sends capital transfers to nonresident parent of a resident construction enterprise, parent forwards funds to resident construction company; recorded both as construction services credits in ITRS and as capital transfers from donors. - Expected corrective action: double-counting to be eliminated from the 2002 data and historical data revised by end-of-2002. ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - Aggregate structure: - Classification broadly consistent with BPM5 analytical presentation: Current Account, Capital Account, Financial Account, net errors and omissions, overall balance, reserve assets, and exceptional financing. - Dissemination: only debit and credit totals for main aggregates are disseminated (goods, services, income, current transfers, capital transfers, direct investment, and other investment); single lines disseminated for portfolio investment and reserve assets. - Additional dissemination: - Cumulative monthly debit and credit data for the current year and same period in the previous year have recently begun to be disseminated in the BoT’s Monthly Economic Review covering all 11 categories of services, compensation of employees, and investment income with an “of which” line for interest payments. - Misclassifications identified: - Technical assistance: - Counter-part entry for technical assistance element of current transfers is classified under services as government services n.i.e., rather than under income as compensation of employees. - Other investment income (interest) and loan assets and liabilities: - General government sector data include (i) direct debt liabilities and (ii) contingent debt liabilities (government-guaranteed debt) of parastatals (public enterprises); both should be classified under other sectors rather than general government. - Current transfer debits: - ITRS-recorded current transfer debits are extremely high: US$123.3 million for 1999, US$76.8 million for 2000, and US$73.8 million for 2001 (published in the first quarter 2002 edition of the quarterly Bank of Tanzania Economic Bulletin). - These amounts represent 76 percent of current transfer credits for other sectors in 1999, 52 percent in 2000, and 69 percent in 2001. - IED staff recognize numerous misclassifications in ITRS data arising from reporting banks’ confusion between balance of payments concept of “transfers” and normal “bank transfer”; no assessment has been made of the extent of misclassifications of current account debits in ITRS records and no adjustments are made to the source data. - Possible misclassification: - Imports of electricity from Uganda and Zambia may be misclassified under services rather than as goods; beginning with 2002 data these imports are expected to be classified under goods, with data back to 2000 to be revised accordingly. ### 2.4 Basis for recording - Valuation: - Goods valued by the Customs Department of the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) at the price actually paid, or payable. - Exports recorded by Customs on an f.o.b. basis; imports recorded on a c.i.f. basis and converted by the IED to f.o.b. basis. - Imports data converted daily by the TRA to the unit of account using the exchange rate prevailing on the day of the transactions. - Other transactions are reported in aggregate to the IED by currency and converted by the IED to the unit of account using average exchange rates prevailing during reporting periods, which vary from two weeks to one year depending on the data source. - Recording basis: - Balance of payments statistics are recorded on a cash basis; no adjustments are made to convert to an accrual basis. - Grossing/netting procedures: - Current Account and Capital Account transactions generally recorded on a gross basis; Financial Account on a net basis, in accordance with BPM5. - Exceptions recorded on a net basis in the Current Account: - Income transactions subject to withholding taxes. - Intercompany transactions settled on a net basis. - Communications services settled on a net basis (examples: Tanzania Postal Corporation and Tanzanian Telecommunications Company Limited settlements with international counterparties). *Source: _cr0482 - 1. Integrity* ### 3.1 Source data ### 3.1 Source data ### 3.1.1 Source data are collected from comprehensive data collection programs that take into account country-specific conditions - Primary data sources used to compile the balance of payments statistics for Tanzania: - Goods: monthly foreign trade data provided by the TRA based on Customs records. Beginning from 2002, TRA data are supplemented by information provided to the IED by the Tanzanian Electric Supply Company on imports of electricity from Uganda and Zambia. - Services: - Transportation: ITRS records. Freight estimated as "90 percent of 13 percent of the total c.i.f., value of imports." Ratio scheduled to change by the end-of-2002. Cross-border transport enterprise returns are incomplete; only TAZARA and THA respond. - Travel: ITRS records; considered to possibly overstate travel debits and credits due to misclassification by bureau de change. (Example: in 2001 travel represented 60 percent of total services credits and 42 percent of total services debits.) Data source expected to change to survey data during 2003. - Communications services: ITRS records; monthly returns requested from communications enterprises are incomplete (state-owned Tanzanian Telecommunications Company Limited and Tanzanian Postal Corporation respond; five privately-owned mobile telephone companies do not). Enterprise returns used as cross-checks. - Insurance services: imports estimated as "10 percent of 13 percent of the total c.i.f., value of imports." Ratio scheduled to change by the end-of-2002. Other insurance debits/credits: quarterly information from the Insurance Commissioner. - Government services: primary source ITRS records. For credits, only 30 percent of the amount reported in ITRS as government services is included in the balance of payments; 70 percent excluded based on discussions with commercial banks due to misclassification (receipts that should have been classified as current transfers). Debit sources: (i) Foreign Accounts Department of the Directorate of Finance of the BoT, (ii) ITRS for embassies, (iii) an amount equal to 30 percent of current transfer credits for services treated as payment by government for technical assistance (counter-entry noted as better classified as compensation of employees). - Other services: ITRS records for all other categories. - Income: - Compensation of employees: ITRS records. - Investment income: ITRS for credits and all debits except loan interest payments. Loan interest payments (general government and other sectors): monthly report from DMD showing actual interest payments for previous month and scheduled payments for current month. DMD arrears stock figures are not used; IED calculates arrears as difference between scheduled and actual payments for a given month. Beginning in 2002, surveys of private sector foreign capital flows and stocks will be used to revise balance of payments statistics on FDI and portfolio investment income for applicable years (example: the 2000 survey provided data for 1999; survey planned for late 2002 will provide data for 2000 and 2001). - Current transfers: - Credits: prior to 2001, aggregate information from UNDP based on donor-supplied data. Beginning in 2001 responsibility moved to MOF; 2001 data are estimates because of MOF data problems. Totals based partly on MOF data and partly on UNDP projections for second half of 2001. Apportionment to current vs capital transfers and to goods/services and budget support based on earlier-year proportions and Aid Coordination Division of the IED. - Debits: ITRS records. - Capital transfers: same sources as current transfers except debt forgiveness provided by DMD. - Direct investment financial transactions: TIC investment approvals adjusted for implementation period and degree of realization. Beginning in 2002, private sector foreign capital flows and stocks survey results will be used to revise applicable years. - Portfolio investment financial transactions: ITRS records; survey results beginning 2002 will be used to revise applicable years. - Other investment financial transactions: - Trade credits and currency and deposits: monetary survey data for banking sector and ITRS for other sectors. - Loan repayments (amortization): monthly report from DMD showing actual repayments for previous month and scheduled repayments for current month. DMD arrears stock figures not used; IED calculates arrears as difference between scheduled and actual payments. - Reserve assets: monthly assets and liabilities statement of the BoT compiled by MFAD and posted on internal BoT network, ESIS. - ITRS coverage and features: - Covers all 20 commercial banks and all bureaux de change. - Includes transactions of banks’ customers and banks themselves. - No value threshold; system does not permit netting—separate reports on payments and receipts required. - Gaps in source data identified: - Unrecorded trade. - Investment income—FDI income (reinvested earnings, dividends and interest) and portfolio investment income. - Workers’ remittances. - Migrants’ transfers. - Direct investment financial transactions—equity capital and other capital transactions. - Portfolio investment asset and liability transactions. - Monitoring: external sector developments in press and other media are monitored daily and included in BoT’s weekly internal newsletter. ### 3.1.2 Source data reasonably approximate the definitions, scope, classifications, valuation, and time of recording required - Adjustments and omissions: - Imports reported by TRA on a c.i.f. basis are adjusted to f.o.b., but no adjustments are made for unrecorded trade or for communications services and income transactions reported on a net basis. - Misclassification issues: - Misclassification by banks of ITRS transactions remains a continuing problem, especially for credits received by telegraphic transfer with little accompanying information. - Deficiencies in specific data sources affecting accuracy: - Current and Capital Transfers Credits (MOF data deficiencies): - (i) annual data compiled on fiscal year (June 30) basis rather than calendar year basis; - (ii) incomplete coverage of donor agencies; - (iii) no breakdown into current and capital transfers; - (iv) no breakdown into transfers in cash and transfers in kind; - (v) no breakdown of current transfers into budget support, goods, and services. - IED has requested quarterly data covering all donor agencies with required breakdowns; MOF reportedly working to improve data. - Insurance services (Insurance Commissioner data deficiencies): - Provide only total receipts (including premiums) and total payments (including claims) for insurance services. - Premiums and claims not separately identified. - No distinction between life and nonlife insurance transactions. - Additional information required for calculation aligned with BPM5 methodology. ### 3.1.3 Source data are timely - Timeliness by source: - Trade data: timeliness of two weeks after end of reference period. - ITRS data: banks report twice a month with timeliness of one week after end of reference period; bureaux de change report once a month with timeliness of 15 days after the period. Penalties for noncompliance ensure deadlines are met. - Loan transactions and debt forgiveness (DMD monthly): usually within one week following end of reference month. - Reserve assets (MFAD monthly) and grants for budget support (Aid Coordination Division of IED monthly): timeliness of one month after end of reference month. - Insurance Commissioner quarterly data: timeliness of one quarter. - MOF annual transfers data: timeliness variable; more timely than UNDP data, which have timeliness of approximately two years. ### 3.2 Statistical techniques #### 3.2.1 Data compilation employs sound statistical techniques - General compilation process and controls: - Data receipt: - TRA trade data received on diskette. - Other external sources received in hardcopy and sometimes electronic formats. - BoT internal departments transmit via electronic network, ESIS. - Frequency: all components of the balance of payments updated monthly using monthly data from ITRS, TRA, or other BoT departments. Annual transfers totals are split into 12 equal monthly amounts for monthly compilation. - ITRS reporting: reported twice a month by each bank on separate forms for receipts and payments, with a page for each balance of payments code and aggregates by currency. - IED processing: - Staff key data into three separate electronic spreadsheets: trade data; services, income and transfers; financial account transactions. - Manual edit and verification of each entry; printouts retained. - Electronic compilation program converts currencies to U.S. dollars using the average exchange rate for the reference period (two weeks) obtained via ESIS link; produces component tables in U.S. dollars and Tanzania shillings. - IED economists prepare tables showing percentage changes from previous month by code and reporting bank, and draft explanatory text; principal economist reviews tables and texts and investigates unusual changes with reporting banks or data suppliers. - Once variations are investigated and explained, worksheets are merged electronically into the balance of payments statement; text and data reviewed by Deputy Director (IED) and then sent to Coordination Division of MFAD; archived by IED. - Text and tables reviewed by Deputy Director in charge of MFAD and Deputy Director of MFPD; IED responds to queries. Finalized publication materials incorporated into Monthly Economic Review, quarterly Economic Bulletin, or annual Bank of Tanzania Economic and Operations Report and sent to Director of DEP for review and approval. Governor approval required for Monthly Economic Bulletin and annual report; authority to approve quarterly Economic Bulletin delegated to Director of DEP from 2002 editions. - Control weaknesses and errors observed: - Process includes adequate reviews and safeguards but does not always prevent errors or follow procedures. - Example errors: - Main balance of payments table in U.S. dollars (Table 4.1) published in fourth quarter 2001 edition of quarterly Economic Bulletin contained errors in exceptional financing data for 1996 and 1997—the sums of components do not add to totals. - Economists can amend data and submit tables directly to Coordination Division without supervisor review. Consequences include inconsistencies between Tanzania shillings and U.S. dollar versions of balance of payments tables in first quarter 2002 edition of quarterly Economic Bulletin, including: - (i) reversal of sign for overall balances for 2001 and 2000 from negatives to positives; - (ii) 2001 reserve assets in Tanzania shillings smaller than corresponding U.S. dollar amount in Table 4.1; - (iii) reversal of sign for 1999 reserve assets; - (iv) inclusion of a very large amount of debt forgiveness in 2001 in shilling table compared with zero in U.S. dollar version; - (v) reversal of sign for 2000 debt forgiveness element of exceptional financing. - Numerous and significant inconsistencies between detailed tables on exports and imports published in first quarter 2002 edition of quarterly Economic Bulletin. *Source: _cr0482 - 3.1 Source data (excerpt).* ### Section 3.4.2 below.) ### _cr0482 - Section 3.4.2 below.) ### Validation practices for intermediate data - The behavior of data series is not routinely cross-checked with related series, even for tables compiled by the same sections of the IED. - As a result, the tables compiled by the IED and disseminated in the BoT’s publications contain numerous inconsistencies. - The consistency between loan interest and amortization arrears in the balance of payments statistics and the DMD database is not routinely checked. - Balance of payments statistics disseminated in BoT publications are not routinely checked against the balance of payments data disseminated in the annual Economic Survey prepared by the POPP, despite apparent common compilation by the IED. ### Identified discrepancies and root causes - Balance of payments data were being based on extended-period projections for a number of years; this went unnoticed because of a lack of routine consistency checks between datasets (IED vs. DMD). - A migration error in the computer program used to move historical data from an outdated compilation database into a new, more detailed compilation database produced substantial changes in 1998 data: - Direct investment in Tanzania changed from positive US$172.2 million to positive US$876.9 million. - Other investment changed from negative US$157.8 million to positive US$75.5 million. - Net errors and omissions experienced a notable change following the migration; for example, errors and omissions changed from positive US$33.2 million to negative US$351.0 million. - The size of net errors and omissions is closely monitored, and reasons for changes are investigated; however, this scrutiny did not prevent significant discrepancies from being approved for publication because the underlying causes (such as the migration error) were not detected promptly. ### Examples of inconsistencies between publications - The balance of payments statistics published in the 2001/2002 Economic Survey have a number of inconsistencies with the data published in the first quarter 2002 edition of the quarterly Economic Bulletin. Differences occur both in provisional 2001 data and in historical data labeled as actual in the Economic Survey. - Illustrative differences in overall balances across publications (all years since 1995 show differences, often significant): - 1996: Economic Survey shows overall balance of US$231.2 million; BoT publication shows negative US$147.9 million. - 1997: Economic Survey shows negative US$633.4 million; BoT publication shows negative US$399.7 million. - 1998: Economic Survey shows negative US$646.0 million; BoT publication shows negative US$476.7 million. - 1999: Economic Survey shows negative US$372.7 million; BoT publication shows negative US$229.6 million. - 2000: Economic Survey shows negative US$35.5 million; BoT publication shows negative US$134.1 million. - Examples of table-level inconsistencies in the first quarter 2002 quarterly Economic Bulletin (exports and imports tables): - Q1 1998 exports f.o.b. of coffee: Table 4.4 shows T Sh 11.9 billion, Table 4.9 shows T Sh 22.1 billion. - Q1 2000 imports c.i.f. of industrial raw materials: Table 4.6 shows T Sh 24.9 billion, Table 4.10 shows T Sh 32.9 billion. - Q1 2000 imports c.i.f. of machinery: Table 4.6 shows T Sh 17.3 billion, Table 4.10 shows T Sh 23.5 billion. - Q1 2000 imports c.i.f. of transport equipment: Table 4.6 shows T Sh 46.6 billion, Table 4.10 shows T Sh 55.8 billion. ### Consequences and procedural gaps - The lack of routine cross-checks across related series and publications allowed substantive errors (including those arising from a migration program bug and reliance on extended-period projections) to persist in disseminated data. - The IED staff and staff of MFAD and MFPD were reportedly unaware of certain published data errors until they were pointed out by the mission. - The size of net errors and omissions is a key figure in the balance of payments statistics; failure to investigate increases promptly can delay detection of serious compilation or processing errors. ### Actions noted or implied by the assessment - The report identifies the need to implement routine consistency checks between: - Balance of payments series and related internal databases (e.g., DMD). - Different publications that disseminate balance of payments data (e.g., BoT publications vs. the POPP Economic Survey). - Prompt investigation of changes in key aggregates (for example, net errors and omissions) following database migrations or major data processing changes is necessary to detect programming or compilation errors quickly. *Source: _cr0482 - Section 3.4.2 below.)* ### 4.4 Revision policy and practice ### 4.4 Revision policy and practice ### 4.4.1 Revisions follow a regular, well-established, and transparent schedule - Revisions are made whenever new data become available for components such as the trade data, the ITRS records, current transfers, and loan transactions. - The revisions are usually reflected in the balance of payments statistics disseminated in the next edition of the monthly or quarterly publication of the BoT. - The revision policy is not disseminated. ### 4.4.2 Preliminary data are clearly identified - The data for the latest year are indicated in the data tables as being provisional by means of an asterisk and a footnote. - The absence of an asterisk for all earlier years is intended to indicate that the data are final. - The data can be subject to frequent revisions for up to three additional years. - A page at the beginning of each edition of the quarterly Economic Bulletin states that the letter “r” is used in the tables throughout the publication to indicate revised data. - The regular revisions to the balance of payments data are not identified in the data tables, and no explanations of the revisions are given in the data tables. ### 4.4.3 Studies and analyses of revisions are made public - No studies of the revisions are made. - Although all revisions are reportedly approved by the IED management before being input into the database, no formal record of the reasons for the revisions is apparently maintained. - The size and the reasons for the revisions are not generally made public. *Source: _cr0482 - 4.4 Revision policy and practice* ### 2. Methodological ### _cr0482 - 2. Methodological ### 2. Methodological soundness — Concepts, scope, classification, and recording - The conceptual basis for the statistics follows international standards, guidelines, and agreed practices. - 2.1 Concepts and definitions – Concepts and definitions used are in accord with internationally accepted statistical frameworks. - 2.1.1 The overall structure in terms of concepts and definitions follows internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices: see dataset-specific framework. - 2.2 Scope – The scope is in accord with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - 2.2.1 The scope is broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices: see dataset-specific framework. - 2.3 Classification/sectorization – Classification and sectorization systems are in accord with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - 2.3.1 Classification/sectorization systems used are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices: see dataset-specific framework. - 2.4 Basis for recording – Flows and stocks are valued and recorded according to internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - 2.4.1 Market prices are used to value flows and stocks. - 2.4.2 Recording is done on an accrual basis. - 2.4.3 Grossing/netting procedures are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. ### 3. Accuracy and reliability — Source data, techniques, validation, and revisions - Quality statement: Source data and compilation techniques are sound, and disseminated data sufficiently portray reality. - 3.1 Source data - 3.1.1 Source data are collected from comprehensive data collection programs that take into account country-specific conditions. - 3.1.2 Source data reasonably approximate the definitions, scope, classifications, valuation, and time of recording required. - 3.1.3 Source data are timely. - 3.2 Statistical techniques - 3.2.1 Data compilation employs sound statistical techniques. - 3.2.2 Other statistical procedures (e.g., data adjustments and transformations, and statistical analysis) employ sound statistical techniques. - 3.3 Assessment and validation of source data - 3.3.1 Source data—including censuses, sample surveys and administrative records—are routinely assessed, e.g., for coverage, sample error, response error, and nonsampling error; the results of the assessments are monitored and made available to guide planning. - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - 3.4.1 Main intermediate data are validated against other information where applicable. - 3.4.2 Statistical discrepancies in intermediate data are assessed and investigated. - 3.4.3 Statistical discrepancies and other potential indicators of problems in statistical outputs are investigated. - 3.5 Revision studies - 3.5.1 Studies and analyses of revisions are carried out routinely and used to inform statistical processes. ### 4. Serviceability — Relevance, timeliness, consistency, and revision policy - Quality statement: Statistics are relevant, timely, consistent, and follow a predictable revisions policy. - 4.1 Relevance - 4.1.1 The relevance and practical utility of existing statistics in meeting users’ needs are monitored. - 4.2 Timeliness and periodicity - 4.2.1 Timeliness follows dissemination standards. - 4.2.2 Periodicity follows dissemination standards. - 4.3 Consistency - 4.3.1 Statistics are consistent within the dataset (e.g., accounting identities observed). - 4.3.2 Statistics are consistent or reconcilable over a reasonable period of time. - 4.3.3 Statistics are consistent or reconcilable with those obtained through other data sources and/or statistical frameworks. - 4.4 Revision policy and practice - 4.4.1 Revisions follow a regular, well-established and transparent schedule. - 4.4.2 Preliminary data are clearly identified. - 4.4.3 Studies and analyses of revisions are made public. ### 5. Accessibility — Data, metadata, and user assistance - Quality statement: Clear data and metadata are easily available and assistance to users is adequate. - 5.1 Data accessibility - 5.1.1 Statistics are presented in a way that facilitates proper interpretation and meaningful comparisons (layout and clarity of text, tables, and charts). - 5.1.2 Dissemination media and formats are adequate. - 5.1.3 Statistics are released on the preannounced schedule. - 5.1.4 Statistics are made available to all users at the same time. - 5.1.5 Nonpublished (but nonconfidential) subaggregates are made available upon request. - 5.2 Metadata accessibility - 5.2.1 Documentation on concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques is available, and differences from internationally accepted standards, guidelines or good practices are annotated. - 5.2.2 Levels of detail are adapted to the needs of the intended audience. - 5.3 Assistance to users - 5.3.1 Contact person for each subject field is publicized. - 5.3.2 Catalogs of publications, documents, and other services, including information on any charges, are widely available. ### Users’ views — Survey of data users (Dar es Salaam and Zanzibar mission) - Survey context and respondents - Mission dates: October 8–23, 2002. - Sample: 53 users; responses: 19 of the sample of 53 users responded. - Response rate: 36 percent. - Respondent composition: - 32 percent were submitted by ministries and state agencies. - 42 percent by the development partners. - five percent by the banks. - five percent by the information and other agencies. - 16 percent by the universities and other institutes. - Summary of ratings and main concerns - Most respondents rated various areas of Tanzanian statistics at three and four on a one-to-five scale. - Positive: broadly satisfied with coverage and detail, frequency, access, and unbiased/accurate nature of data. - Critical: timeliness of the data; lack of advance release calendars; lack of information on revisions; lack of information on methodology. - Comparative view: most respondents considered Tanzania’s statistics to be about the same quality as those of other countries in the region. - Selected user comments and requests (summarized under headings) - Coverage and detail - "A great part of the economy is still informal and not adequately covered." - "No adequate research on prices, and the CPI does not cover a wide range of products." - Periodicity and timeliness - "National accounts should be made available on a quarterly basis." - "In most cases, there are delays in disseminating official statistics." - "Statistics are revealed much too late. BoT is particularly poor in this respect this year." - Accessibility - "The information (on methodology) is not disclosed to the users." - "Government finance statistics are not as widely disseminated as they should be—not readily available in book stores." - "No adequate footnotes explaining the methods of computation and assumptions made." - "Availability of websites has improved accessibility." - Overall assessment - "Some methodologies used are not transparent." - "The levels of disaggregation of data are not enough." - Critical assessments of specific domains: "For national accounts and price statistics I would say they are not accurate, and for government finance statistics I would say they are biased and inaccurate." - "Most price statistics are approximations and do not reflect the actual situation." - Calls for more disaggregation and parameter coverage. - Concern: "Official statistics of the country are exaggerated for political reasons." - Other comments - Differences noted between World Bank and NBS statistics; suggestion that NBS be regarded as sole provider to remove differences. - Calls to increase dissemination effort, enhance linkage with national statistics, and resume timely publications. - Specific requests: "A calendar for release would be useful." "Timeliness of release is important." Need for more analysis, interpretation and commentary. - Suggestion: publish official macroeconomic statistics in an official gazette and mail copies to media houses. - Data on tourism—hotel room occupancy rates, tourist arrivals and foreign exchange earnings—need improvement. - Positive trend: "In general the quality of data has improved in recent years, both in terms of coverage and content." - Operational recommendations: BoT Economic Bulletins should be timely released; NBS should adopt a more customer-focus and business-like mindset; data quality should be improved for more reliability and value for money. ### Zanzibar: Data issues, institutional arrangements, and data limitations - Institutional and legal framework - Zanzibar’s relationship with the mainland yields complex statistical issues; Union matters (e.g., money and banking) are handled pan-territorially. - Bank of Tanzania (BoT) monetary survey data cover all commercial banks in Tanzania. - The Statistics Act, 2002 applies to Zanzibar only in respect of the census on population and housing. - The Office of Chief Government Statistician (OCGS) operates under Zanzibar’s Statistics Act, 1999. - OCGS capacity and planning - OCGS staff: seven professionals including the Chief Statistician; three of them have had no previous experience in statistics. - Need: strong need for staff training (courses or hands-on technical assistance). - Strategic Plan (prepared April 2002) outlines a statistical work program and capacity building for 2001/02–2004/05 involving a budget of US$2.8 million. - National accounts - National accounts of Zanzibar are still provisional. - Concepts and definitions do not follow 1968 SNA or 1993 SNA recommendations; internationally accepted classifications are not used. - Available source data are limited; virtually no sources on private market production; accuracy of agricultural statistics is questionable. - Initiatives: establishment of a business register and a census of industrial production; numerous censuses and surveys proposed in the Strategic Plan to update benchmarks and base year (1985). - Price statistics - Price statistics limited to a quarterly CPI using weights from the Zanzibar HBS of 1990/91. - The most recent CPI published by the BoT refers to June 1999. - Accuracy affected by lack of homogeneity in priced items over time. - Plans: collect prices monthly and organize a new HBS in the second quarter of 2003. - Synchronization: Zanzibar HBSs to be synchronized with mainland surveys scheduled for 2006 and 2012. - Serviceability and dissemination - Periodicity of national accounts is annual; no formal dissemination of the data occurs. - Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs receives national accounts statistics in March; data available to other users upon request (option not widely publicized). - Presently, the CPI is not disseminated. - OCGS envisages resumption, by the end of 2002, of publication of its annual Statistical Abstract (discontinued in 1997 for budgetary reasons). - Chief Government Statistician instituted workshops inviting users and providers to improve serviceability and public understanding. - Fiscal and debt statistics - Zanzibar’s Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs maintains its own separate budget; data on Zanzibar government operations are compiled separately from the mainland. - Budgetary central government data for the mainland include only transfers to Zanzibar. - Domestic debt: Ministry compiles monthly data on Zanzibar government domestic debt (stocks held by financial institutions and nonfinancial public enterprises, and loans and advances from banks and Union government) for internal use. - Domestic debt status as of March of every year is disseminated in the Finance Minister’s budget speech to the Zanzibar House of Representatives (June). - External debt: since external debt is a Union matter, the BoT Debt Management Department’s database covers loans negotiated for the Union government whose proceeds were transferred to Zanzibar, plus loans provided to Zanzibar with the Union government guarantee. - Loans contracted directly by Zanzibar without Union guarantee are not included in BoT database. - Ministry compiles, for internal use, annual data on foreign debt used for development projects. - Balance of payments - OCGS is responsible for collecting and compiling balance of payments statistics for Zanzibar. - Due to staff shortages, no data have been compiled since 1998. - Zanzibar provides customs data on imports and exports, and the People’s Bank of Zanzibar provides data on services to the BoT for compilation of the overall Union balance of payments. *Source: _cr0482 - 2. Methodological* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2004/_cr0482.pdf_