## _cr05208 — DQAF July 2003 — Summary Results and Detailed Assessments ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [_cr05208 — DQAF July 2003 — Summary Results and Detailed Assessments](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/_cr05208.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/_cr05208.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/_cr05208.pdf.json) --- ### I. Overall assessment — key findings - Legal and institutional framework - Legal framework for statistical activity is "broadly adequate". - National Statistical Commission met for the first time on September 24, 2004. - Guatemala became a GDDS participant on December 6, 2004 (socio-demographic metadata pending). - Participation in GDDS - Guatemala meets most GDDS recommendations; periodicity is met or exceeded across all data categories. - Exceptions: GFS coverage does not extend to consolidated central and general government; monthly production indices are not available. - DQAF conclusions (summary) - Scope to improve methodological basis and source data for most datasets. - Resource mix and level need improvement in some cases. - Agencies are well placed to make further progress based on recent initiatives. ### DQAF summary results — dataset/dimension snapshot (symbols: O, LO, LNO, NO) - Prerequisites & assurances (selected) - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: National Accounts LO; CPI LO; GFS LO; Monetary O; BOP LO - 0.2 Resources: National Accounts LO; CPI LNO; GFS LO; Monetary O; BOP O - 1.1 Professionalism: National Accounts LO; CPI O; GFS O; Monetary O; BOP O - 1.2 Transparency: National Accounts LO; CPI LO; GFS LO; Monetary LO; BOP LO - Methodological, accuracy, serviceability, accessibility (selected) - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: National Accounts LNO; CPI O; GFS LO; Monetary O; BOP LO - 3.1 Source data: National Accounts LNO; CPI LO; GFS LO; Monetary LNO; BOP LNO - 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness: All datasets O - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: National Accounts LNO; CPI LO; GFS LNO; Monetary LNO; BOP LNO ### Users’ main concerns (survey & meeting) - Weaknesses in national accounts and uncertainties about GDP level and growth. - Poor timeliness of annual estimates; strong desire for quarterly national accounts and balance of payments. - Demand for more detail and longer series; dissatisfaction with metadata and lack of information on revisions. - Apprehension about providing data (tax liability, security concerns); suggestion to involve industry associations and universities. --- ### Key cross-cutting priorities (summary of staff recommendations) - High priority cross-cutting actions: - Launch robust, coordinated effort to strengthen statistical culture with high-level political support. - Reform NIS law to increase institutional and financial independence by: appointing head of NIS for a period overlapping government; granting head the right to vote on NIS governing body; making NIS budget subject to direct approval by Congress in a multi-year plan; increasing sanctions for nonresponse and preserving fines' real value. - Other cross-cutting actions: - Strengthen coordination among BG, SB, NIS; invoke NIS law to request data; publish advance access arrangements; monitor user needs; publish advance release calendars and explicit revision policy; publish metadata; make longer series and more detail easily available. --- ### Prerequisites of quality — agency findings ### National Institute of Statistics (NIS) — assurances of integrity, resources, professionalism - Legal/institutional - NIS law (1985, Decree 3–85) mandates coordination of NSS, approves questionnaires, obliges responses, and mandates monthly CPI within 30 days. - Fines for nonreporting/misreporting: about US$65–250 (Q25–Q500 updated range Q250–Q1000 in 1992 regulations), lack deterrent effect; no mechanism to preserve real value of fines. - NIS law does not assign specific responsibilities to NSS members for macroeconomic statistics. - Resources & staffing (CPI specifics) - CPI Department staffing: Total 35 (Permanent 24 / Contractual 11). CPI section: 13 permanent / 10 contractual = 23; overall PSD total: 24 permanent / 11 contractual / 35 total. - Field agents: Metropolitan Area 4 permanent / 7 contractual / 11 total; Departmental States 7 permanent / 3 contractual / 10 total. - Contractuals represent nearly a third of staff; 82 percent of contractual staff have less than one year in the job. - Budget for CPI program in 2004: 1.36 million Q, representing 2.9 percent of the total NIS budget (47.22 million Q). Rate of execution was 36 percent as of September 30, 2004. - Computing: 21 computers (mainly Pentium 4), 1 server (shared), SQL Server used; only 4 computers have Internet access. - Professionalism & transparency - CPI produced without interference; however, embargoed access by selected interest groups and the President occurs 2–24 hours prior to public release; the public is not informed. - Draft questionnaires circulated to specialized users; methodological changes publicized post-implementation. - Quality management - NIS monitors CPI production and item specification changes, but evaluation of editing rates, revisions, and timeliness is insufficient. ### Bank of Guatemala (BG) — assurances of integrity, resources, methodological progress - Legal/institutional - BG law mandates dissemination of macroeconomic statistics; BG compiles national accounts, BOP, and monetary statistics. - BG produces national accounts though lacks standalone legal basis to request private-sector information; NIS law and NSC participation enable data requests in practice. - Resources & organization - NAS (National Accounts Section) staffing: 32 technical staff. For 1958-base series: 2 staff compile/publish; for 2001-base exercise: 29 technicians processing and compiling base year. PRONAME hired 175 temporary staff for directory and survey processing. - BG has committed nearly 95 percent of its human resources to the 2001-base exercise. - NAS staff experience: 25 persons < 10 years (15 < 5 years); 5 persons 11–20 years; 2 persons > 20 years. - Confidentiality & governance - BG autonomous by law; Monetary Board (MB) governs BG and SB; MB reviews data prior to release; selected users receive data prior to publication and public is not informed. - Methodological improvement - BG implementing 1993 SNA; preliminary production and generation of income accounts for 143 activities and supply/use for 226 products prepared in 2004; final results to support formal adoption expected first half of 2006. - BG planning conversion of BOP to BPM5 with full adoption expected in 2006; BG budgeted 2005 resources for BOP improvements. ### Ministry of Finance (MOF) — assurances of integrity, resources, data coverage - Legal/institutional - MOF framework broadly adequate for central government budget statistics but not for general government statistics; rampant nonreporting by public sector entities outside budgetary central government. - IFIS (Integrated Financial Information System) launched 1998 improved central government data dissemination; sustainability uncertain with prospective end of World Bank funding. - Resources & practices - EFSAD staff: 17 persons; TBD assigned one officer for IMF Yearbook since 1989. - Staff and computing resources sufficient but training needed; most compilers not familiar with GFSM 2001; few experienced compilers trained in GFSM 1986. - Transparency - Practices and procedures for data compilation and dissemination usually not made available to the public; internal government access to certain fiscal data prior to release is not made public. --- ### Methodological soundness and source data — dataset overviews ### National Accounts — methodological soundness, source data, serviceability, accessibility - Methodology & concepts - Published series based on 1953 SNA concepts and 1958 base year; concepts and definitions very outdated. - BG implementing 1993 SNA with 2001 as base year; plan to publish national accounts for 2001 (benchmarked) and series 2001–04 consistent with 1993 SNA. - Classification/sectorization: ISIC Rev. 1 in 1958-base series; CPC not used; supply/use framework not prepared for published series. - Basis for recording: many government transactions recorded on cash basis; VAT, excises, own-production not consistently factored; agricultural work in progress not recorded in period produced. - Source data - Predominantly administrative records; censuses not conducted routinely; surveys very limited. - Coverage deterioration: sources cover less than 80 percent of economic activities. - IMAE (Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity, base year 1995) uses 39 indicators, accounts for "less than 70 percent of GDP"; IMAE lag 45 days; published primarily via the Internet. - PRONAME outputs: DINEL directory (220,000 establishments), PEEC business survey (sample 3,332 firms), preliminary supply and use for 2001 (October 2004). - Compilation techniques - Extrapolation and double-deflation methods used; wholesale and retail trade derived using a marketing coefficient from 1965 census. - No adjustments for informal, illegal, underground activities in 1958-based series. - Quarterly accounts not prepared routinely; BG prepared internal estimates 1987–2003. - Serviceability & accessibility - Annual real GDP data published 6–9 months following reference period. - Periodic revision schedule: March (estimated), July (estimated), December (preliminary), after 18 months (definitive) — not publicly disclosed. - Metadata prepared but mainly for internal use; longer series and additional detail available on request (webmaster@banguat.gob.gt). - Staffing & resources (NAS) - NAS: 32 technical staff; hardware: Pentium IV PCs with RAM > 260 MB, HDD > 18GB; CSPRO adopted March 2003; servers with LTO and DLT backups. - Retirement provisions: retirement age 50 or after 25 years of service. - BG committed funding; 2001-base exercise expected completed by December 2004 (context: mission reporting). ### Consumer Price Index (CPI) — methodological soundness, source data, serviceability, accessibility - Concepts & classification - CPI concepts broadly in line with Consumer Price Index Manual, 2004; weights follow 1993 SNA concepts for monetary consumption expenditure. - CPI classified using Guatemalan COICOP with departures (e.g., alcoholic beverages and tobacco included in miscellaneous). - Scope & coverage - CPI weights cover urban households only (urban households represent 62 percent of total consumption expenditure; rural households 38 percent not covered). - Excludes consumption of own-produced goods and imputed rent for owner-occupied housing. - Source data & sampling - Weight reference: 1998–99 NSHIE; sampling frame from 1994 census updated to 1997; 7,352 households surveyed; two-stage stratified sample; purchases in informal markets included. - CPI basket: 218 products / 422 varieties; 50,304 monthly price observations/quotations; prices collected in 15 cities grouped into 8 regions. - Accuracy & reliability - Validation limited to routine checks; price collection daily; monthly CPI published on the seventh day following the reference month (exceeds GDDS and SDDS timeliness). - CPI not revised; treatment of missing prices, quality adjustment, new products needs improvement. - Nonresponse rates: NSHIE 2.9 percent; price surveys ~1 percent. - Resources & staff - PSD computing: 21 computers, 1 server shared; only 4 computers have Internet access; supervisors have NIS e-mail accounts. - Staff composition: 35 total in PSD price-related roles; average CPI staff seniority four years. - Salaries at NIS about half of those at other ministries; field agents monthly wages around Q1,900; basic vital basket Q2,520.5 (US$320.3 as of September 2004). - Recommendations (CPI) - High priority: apply standard COICOP; allocate more resources to NIS (strengthen CPI processing staff, electronic equipment, contribution to national accounts, fund producer price index compilation). - Other: study inclusion of rural household consumption, impute rents, monitor ENCOVI/NSHIE, plan treatment of missing prices and quality changes. ### Government Finance Statistics (GFS) — methodological soundness, source data, serviceability, accessibility - Concepts & scope - GFS concepts generally consistent with GFSM 1986; no plan to migrate to GFSM 2001 at assessment time. - Monthly/annual fiscal statistics cover budgetary central government (BCG) only; exclude certain non-budgetary central government units, local governments, public enterprises, social security. - Debt data: external debt published; domestic debt stocks not published historically until 2002; published debt data do not follow recommended classification. - Source data & recording - IFIS (Integrated Financial Information System) consolidated central government accounting since 1998; IFIS ensures validation, cross-checking, accuracy, timeliness for BCG. - Recording is on cash basis with a few deviations. - Nonreporting by entities outside BCG impedes general government statistics. - Resources & organization - EFSAD staff: 17 persons (mix of economists, mathematicians, accountants, MBAs, etc.); TBD compiles annual GFS for IMF. - IFAD/IFIS expansion planned to include municipalities by 2007; MOF targets incorporation milestones for municipalities from 2005–2007. - Serviceability & accessibility - Periodicity & timeliness consistent with GDDS; monthly GFS figures available no later than 15 days after month-end for authorities; monthly figures disseminated via MOF website. - Metadata: some definitions available; no comprehensive documentation published; nonpublished data available upon formal request. - Recommendations (GFS) - High priority: expand coverage to include social security, local governments, nonfinancial public enterprises; consider severe penalties in budget law to ensure compliance. - Adhere to IFIS timetable to publish general government statistics by early 2006 with collaboration from Institute of Municipal Promotion and NIS. - Other: disseminate debt by holder/instrument/maturity; staff training; compile public sector financial balance sheet; preserve IFIS efficiency after World Bank funding ends. ### Monetary and Financial Statistics — methodological soundness, source data, serviceability - Concepts & scope - Concepts generally consistent with MFSM 2000. - Central Bank Survey conforms; ODCS excludes offshore banking sector and credit/savings cooperatives. - Plan of Accounts outdated for commercial banks: use acquisition rather than market prices for securities; cash instead of accrual for interest. - Resources & procedures - FPS staffing for monetary statistics: 6 full-time staff; envisaged adding 3 additional staff. - Computing: derivation/compilation via new D–Base software; AEIS and EFIS automated systems; built-in validation checks. - Periodicity & timeliness: weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual dissemination; weekly publication within one to two weeks. - Quality management - Revision studies not carried out regularly; ad hoc only. - Consistency generally supported by BG–SB coordination; sectorization and residency detail gaps remain. - Recommendations (Monetary) - High priority: widen coverage to include offshore banks and credit/savings cooperatives; broaden sectorization; adopt accrual accounting and market price valuation principles. - Other: plan to expand coverage to other financial corporations to construct Financial Corporations Survey per MFSM. ### Balance of Payments (BOP) — accuracy, source data, classification, serviceability - Concepts & classification - Concepts broadly conform with BPM4; transition to BPM5 in progress. - Departures: goods for processing not separately identified; portfolio and other investment not classified into recommended four institutional sectors. - Basis of recording: services, income, and financial transactions recorded on cash basis; financial account items mainly recorded net with assets/liabilities not separately identified. - Source data & assessment - Principal sources: customs records for trade, ITRS (International Transactions Reporting System) administered by banks for other transactions. - ITRS is insufficient, not fully reliable; virtually no data collected through surveys. - ITRS forms lack residency coding and are hardcopy/manual; new ITRS form designed for BPM5 implementation in 2005. - Timeliness: annual BOP disseminated within six months; quarterly estimates redisseminated by IMF. - Data quality issues & cross-checks - Departures from residency criterion affect private capital flow estimates. - Cross-checks with partner-country trade or bank balance sheets not routine. - Examples: comparison with U.S. trade data shows imports overvalued in 17 percent of cases and exports undervalued in 25 percent (2002–03 average). - Migrants’ transfers jump 100 percent from 2001 to 2002 noted but not fully explained. - Recommendations (BOP) - High priority: convert to BPM5 and publish without delay; expand sources via new ITRS forms, surveys (start with foreign investment), use administrative data (financial institutions’ balance sheets, MOF grants, embassy transaction records). - Other: systematic cross-checking of ITRS reports with banks’ balance sheets, BIS/OECD/BIS data, partner-country trade stats; reduce staff turnover; make compilation performance primary in evaluations. --- ### Key dataset-specific quantitative and organizational facts (verbatim preservation) - CPI collection and dissemination - Monthly CPI published on the seventh day following the reference month. - CPI weights cover urban households (62 percent of total consumption); rural households represent 38 percent of total expenditures (1998–99 NSHIE). - CPI market basket: 218 products, 422 varieties, 50,304 monthly price observations. - NSHIE sampling frame: 1,997,537 housing units; 7,352 surveyed; second-stage sample: 18 households urban / 15 households rural. - NAS (National Accounts Section) staffing and equipment - NAS has 32 technical staff. - PRONAME provided 175 temporary staff to prepare directory and process surveys. - NAS computers: Pentium IV, RAM exceeding 260 MB, hard disk capacity of more than 18GB. - MOF and IFAD/IFIS timelines and coverage - IFAD launched 1998; IFAD project completion planned by 2007. - MOF targets for municipalities: 44 in January 2005; another 100 in December 2005; 100 more in December 2006; remaining 88 during 2007. - Users’ survey (Guatemala City — October 27, 2004) — selected exact values - Which official statistics do you use regularly? - National Accounts: 95% — 18 respondents - CPI/PPI: 100% — 19 respondents - GFS: 79% — 15 respondents - Monetary: 78% — 14 respondents - BOP: 63% — 12 respondents - International capital flows and foreign liquidity: 100% — 19 respondents - Timeliness of dissemination (respondents = 19) - National Accounts: various tabulations shown (e.g., 100% for one block); Balance of Payments timeliness: Yes 26% / 5; No 58% / 11; No opinion 16% / 3. - Overall quality ratings (average) - National Accounts: 3.00 - CPI/PPI: 3.63 - GFS: 3.00 - Monetary: 3.67 - Balance of Payments: 3.40 --- ### Key recommendations — cross-cutting and dataset-specific (priorities and others) - Cross-cutting — High priority - Strengthen statistical culture and political support; reform NIS law (appointment term overlapping government, right to vote for NIS head, multi-year budget approval by Congress, increase sanctions and preserve fines’ real value). - National Accounts — High priority - Announce publication by early 2005 of national accounts for 2001 as benchmark. - Publish new national accounts series (2001–04) consistent with 1993 SNA with base year 2001 by early 2006. - Produce quarterly national accounts based on new annual series; establish schedule for updating base year preferably every five years (no lower periodicity than every 10 years). - CPI — High priority - Apply standard COICOP; allocate more resources to NIS for CPI processing staff, interior office electronic equipment, and fund producer price index compilation (at least manufacturing). - GFS — High priority - Expand coverage to include social security agencies, local governments, and nonfinancial public enterprises; consider severe penalties to ensure reporting compliance. - Publish general government statistics by early 2006 adhering to IFIS timetable in collaboration with Institute of Municipal Promotion and NIS. - Monetary statistics — High priority - Widen coverage to include offshore banks and credit/savings cooperatives; adopt accrual accounting principles and market price valuation for securities. - Balance of Payments — High priority - Implement BPM5 assimilation and publish; expand sources via redesigned ITRS forms and surveys (start with foreign investment); use administrative data (banks’ balance sheets, MOF grants, embassy records). --- ### Serviceability and accessibility — common improvements needed - Publish advance release calendars and a well-defined revision policy (including formal revision studies). - Publish information on concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques for all datasets. - Enhance simultaneous release to all users and publicize pre-release access lists when applicable. - Establish regular user consultations and user feedback mechanisms; create catalogs of publications and make metadata publicly accessible. --- *Source: _cr05208 - Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) July 2003 — IMF staff assessment and country authorities’ responses as presented in the source PDF.* ### 1. DQAF July 2003—Summary Results....................................................................................7 ### 1. DQAF July 2003—Summary Results ### I. Overall assessment — key findings - Legal and institutional framework - The legal framework for statistical activity is "broadly adequate". - The National Statistical Commission met for the first time on September 24, 2004. - Guatemala became a GDDS participant on December 6, 2004 (socio-demographic metadata pending). - Participation in GDDS - Guatemala meets most GDDS recommendations; periodicity is met or exceeded across all data categories. - Exceptions: coverage of government finance statistics (GFS) does not extend to consolidated central and general government; monthly production indices are not available. - Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) conclusions (summary) - Scope to improve methodological basis and source data for most datasets. - Resource mix and level need improvement in a few cases. - Agencies are well placed to make further progress on the basis of recent initiatives. ### Prerequisites of quality and assurances of integrity — agency-specific findings - National Institute of Statistics (NIS) - Legal/Institutional - NIS operates under a law of 1985 that mandates coordination of a National Statistical System (NSS) and gives NIS the right to approve questionnaires and instructions. - The law empowers NSS members to collect data and obligates responses, while reaffirming constitutional confidentiality protections. - Fines for nonreporting and misreporting are about US$65–250, lack deterrent effect, and the law does not provide for preservation of their real value. - NIS law does not assign specific responsibilities to NSS members for macroeconomic statistics. - NIS is mandated to prepare and disseminate a monthly CPI within 30 days of the end of the reference month. - Resources and staffing - Resources devoted to the CPI are insufficient in some respects. - Contractuals represent nearly a third of staff; more than 80 percent have less than one year in the job. - Number of staff on data processing and field work is insufficient; field staff also gather data for the monthly Wholesale Price Index (WPI). - Computer equipment is excellent, but physical infrastructure is inadequate. - Professionalism and transparency - NIS is semiautonomous, ascribed to the Ministry of the Economy; the head of NIS is appointed by the President and is a Board member but does not have the right to vote. - CPI is produced without interference; recruitment and promotion governed by NIS regulations and the Law of the Civil Service. - Representatives of selected interest groups and the President have embargoed access to CPI 2–24 hours prior to public release; the public is not informed of this practice. - Draft questionnaires are circulated to specialized users; methodological changes have been publicized post-implementation. - Quality management - NIS monitors CPI production and item specification changes, but evaluation of editing rates, revisions, and timeliness are insufficient. - Bank of Guatemala (BG) - Legal/Institutional - BG law mandates dissemination of macroeconomic statistics and BG compiles national accounts, balance of payments, and monetary statistics, filling legal gaps on responsibilities. - Resources and organization - Resources are adequate in most cases, but efficient use is hampered by high staff turnover and insufficient emphasis on statistical objectives in the BOP area; some staff perform noncompilation tasks. - BG recruits qualified staff and promotes professionalism. - Confidentiality and governance - Members of the Monetary Board represent selected interest groups but are guided by BG law on confidentiality. - Methodological improvement - BG is working to produce a higher-quality national accounts series, with results expected shortly (at time of report). - Ministry of Finance (MOF) - Legal/Institutional - MOF legal framework is broadly adequate for central government budget statistics but not for compiling/disseminating general government statistics. - Rampant nonreporting to MOF by public sector entities impedes preparation of general government statistics. - Resources and practices - Staff and computing resources are sufficient, but more training is needed. - Relevance of fiscal data suffers from a lack of consultation with users. - Transparency could be enhanced by publishing information on compilation and dissemination practices. ### Methodological soundness and source data issues - Methodology - Most published series have good methodological foundations, but: - Methodology and base year of national accounts are "seriously outdated". - Improvements in scope, classification, and sectorization are needed for most datasets. - International standards are not fully applied in all datasets. - Source data - Paucity of source data is the key factor hindering accuracy and reliability. - National accounts and BOP rely on administrative source data; virtually no data are obtained from surveys. - Rampant nonreporting to MOF impedes general government statistics compilation. - CPI weaknesses: long lag in updating CPI weights; lack of a plan for updating weights with sufficient frequency; issues in treatment of missing prices, quality change, and new products. - Monetary statistics lack sufficient detail to permit accurate classification and sectorization of commercial banks’ accounts. - Processes for assessment and validation of source, intermediate, and output data are weak for national accounts and BOP. - Statistical techniques are generally sound, except for national accounts. - Revision studies are generally not conducted on a regular basis. ### Serviceability and accessibility - Serviceability - Frequency and timeliness of disseminated data follow or exceed GDDS recommendations. - CPI timeliness exceeds SDDS standards. - There is scope to provide the public with longer series. - Revision policy and practice are incipient; revisions are not always identified or explained to the public. - Agencies could make additional joint efforts to enhance consistency across macroeconomic datasets. - Accessibility - Significant improvements in Internet dissemination by all agencies. - Advance release calendars are not published. - Greater efforts needed to release certain data simultaneously to all users and to present statistics to facilitate use and interpretation. - Methodological notes and other metadata are seldom published. ### User feedback — summary of survey and meeting - Users’ main concerns - Weaknesses in the national accounts and uncertainties about GDP level and growth. - Poor timeliness of annual estimates; strong desire for quarterly national accounts and balance of payments estimates. - Demand for more detail and longer series, including for variables modified by methodological change. - Dissatisfaction with available metadata and lack of information on data revisions. - Other insights - Apprehension about providing data, possibly due to tax liability and security concerns. - Suggestion to involve industry associations and universities in official collection to leverage credibility. - Market solutions to paucity of official GDP data rely on good response rates to private surveys. - Concern about adverse effect of insufficient official data on prospective foreign investment and inconsistencies across data sources. ### DQAF summary results (Table 1) — ratings by dataset and dimension Key to symbols: O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO = Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not Observed. - Dimensions 0 and 1 (Prerequisites and Assurances of Integrity) - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: National Accounts LO; Consumer Price Index LO; Government Finance Statistics LO; Monetary Statistics O; Balance of Payments Statistics LO - 0.2 Resources: National Accounts LO; CPI LNO; GFS LO; Monetary O; BOP O - 0.3 Relevance: National Accounts LO; CPI LO; GFS LO; Monetary LO; BOP LO - 0.4 Other quality management: National Accounts LO; CPI LO; GFS LO; Monetary O; BOP LO - 1.1 Professionalism: National Accounts LO; CPI O; GFS O; Monetary O; BOP O - 1.2 Transparency: National Accounts LO; CPI LO; GFS LO; Monetary LO; BOP LO - 1.3 Ethical standards: National Accounts O; CPI O; GFS O; Monetary O; BOP O - Dimensions 2 to 5 (Methodological soundness, Accuracy and reliability, Serviceability, Accessibility) - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: National Accounts LNO; CPI O; GFS LO; Monetary O; BOP LO - 2.2 Scope: National Accounts LNO; CPI LO; GFS LNO; Monetary LO; BOP LO - 2.3 Classification/sectorization: National Accounts LNO; CPI LO; GFS LO; Monetary LO; BOP LNO - 2.4 Basis for recording: National Accounts LO; CPI LO; GFS LO; Monetary LO; BOP LO - 3.1 Source data: National Accounts LNO; CPI LO; GFS LO; Monetary LNO; BOP LNO - 3.2 Assessment of source data: National Accounts LNO; CPI LO; GFS O; Monetary O; BOP LNO - 3.3 Statistical techniques: National Accounts LNO; CPI LO; GFS LO; Monetary O; BOP LO - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs: National Accounts LNO; CPI LO; GFS LO; Monetary O; BOP LO - 3.5 Revision studies: National Accounts LNO; CPI LO; GFS LNO; Monetary LNO; BOP LNO - 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness: All datasets O - 4.2 Consistency: National Accounts LNO; CPI O; GFS LO; Monetary O; BOP LO - 4.3 Revision policy and practice: National Accounts LNO; CPI LO; GFS LO; Monetary LO; BOP LO - 5.1 Data accessibility: National Accounts LO; CPI LO; GFS LO; Monetary O; BOP LO - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: National Accounts LNO; CPI LO; GFS LNO; Monetary LNO; BOP LNO - 5.3 Assistance to users: National Accounts LO; CPI O; GFS LO; Monetary LO; BOP LO ### Report structure and next steps - Section II of the report provides a summary assessment by agency and dataset; Section III provides staff recommendations. - Authorities’ response and a volume of detailed assessments are presented in separate documents. *Source: _cr05208 - 1. DQAF July 2003—Summary Results* ### 0. Prerequisites of quality ### _cr05208 - 0. Prerequisites of quality ### Assurances of integrity — Ministry of Finance (MOF) - Legal and institutional environment - Legal framework supports data collection for reporting fiscal statistics to policymakers and Congress but lacks emphasis on dissemination to the public at large. - Noncompliance with reporting requirements is rampant among units outside the budgetary central government (social security agency, some central government units, many local governments, most nonfinancial public enterprises). - All public entities are required by the budget law to provide annual budgets and periodic budget execution reports to the MOF and to Congress, but many do not comply fully. - Budget law lacks specification of proportionate penalties and other strong remedial measures. - Recent institutional initiatives and an Integrated Financial Information System (IFIS) (launched in 1998) have yielded clear improvements in dissemination of central government data. - Coordination with the BG is very close, with weekly meetings to review financing data and fiscal conditions. - Resources - Current staff devoted to producing fiscal statistics is sufficient, but there are unmet training needs and the sustainability of the IFIS is not assured. - Only a few experienced compilers are well trained in the GFSM 1986, while most have not attended suitable training courses and have little familiarity with the GFSM 2001. - With prospective end to World Bank funding, it is unclear whether IFIS will be retained with the same level of high-quality staffing. - Physical infrastructure and other material resources are adequate. - Relevance - Few measures to ensure statistics meet evolving needs of private sector users outside the public sector. - MOF routinely responds to requests from policymakers and has met needs stemming from the Peace Accords of 1996 and the Fiscal Pact of 2000. - Other quality management focuses on expanding IFIS coverage with medium-term goal of incorporating local governments and the rest of the public sector; a pilot system for a subset of municipalities is in place. - Professionalism - Law of the Civil Service supports impartiality; job stability (average tenure of staff is over seven years) and appropriately high ranking of MOF officials foster professionalism. - Risk that reliance on IFIS improvements to address lack of source data on above-the-line operations of the rest of the public sector may be unduly parsimonious and take much longer than expected. - IFIS staff have conducted seminars for the press on basic public finance concepts and related data posted on MOF websites to reduce misuse and misinterpretation. - Transparency - Practices and procedures for data compilation and dissemination usually are not made available to the public. - Internal government access to certain fiscal data prior to release is not made public. - The compiling unit of data released to the public is clearly identified. - Ethical standards - Constitutional safeguards and provisions in the law of the NIS and Law of the Civil Service, plus legislation on tax administration and probity, fortify protection of confidentiality. ### Assurances of integrity — Bank of Guatemala (BG) - Legal and institutional environment - Law of the BG mandates dissemination of macroeconomic statistics but does not specify compilation responsibilities. - BG produces national accounts, balance of payments, and monetary statistics to inform policymakers and discharge dissemination obligations. - Data-gathering capacity buttressed by NIS law (as member of the NSS) and other legislation. - Banking and supervisory legislation requires compulsory reporting by banks to the Superintendency of Banks (SB) and protects confidentiality; SB transmits financial data to the BG with good periodicity and timeliness. - Sharing of a common governing body (Monetary Board, MB) facilitates coordination; MB governs both BG and SB. - SB has not acted to ensure banks provide additional data needed by BG on sectorization. - Penalties for nonreporting or misreporting are extremely rare; penalties in the law of the NIS are low and declining in real terms. - Resources - Computing resources, physical infrastructure, and funding broadly adequate. - Overall staff dedicated to statistical production is adequate, particularly for monetary statistics, but allocation to competing tasks often inappropriate. - Number of staff for national accounts production is clearly insufficient. - Staff working on migration to 1993 SNA and a more up-to-date base year would be reasonable provided results are obtained promptly. - Balance of payments staff numbers are adequate but frequently distracted by noncompiling tasks; a very high turnover rate for BOP erodes training and experience gains. - Relevance - Dual role of BG as compiler and user supports relevance. - Contact with users in key public sector and international agencies exists, but no formal and regular consultation with other users. - Other quality management - Good in-house training program, opportunities for training abroad, hiring of experts, and multi-layered checks in preparation of monetary statistics. - Professionalism - BG is autonomous by law; head (who also heads MB) is appointed by the President for a four-year period that overlaps the presidential term, supporting independence and professionalism. - Compilation decisions are based on technical criteria; recruitment and promotion emphasize professional competence. - Staff have ample formal training and professional development opportunities. - Choice of statistical methodology is based solely on statistical considerations, but national accounts estimated with 1978 as a base year have not been published. - BG provides clarifications including press releases; BG monitors press reports and prepares a daily summary circulated via intranet. - Transparency - Broad legal terms and conditions for compiling statistics are specified in relevant laws available to the public. - Not all questionnaires and publications indicate supporting legislation. - BG publications provide the address for user comments but not specific contacts for each dataset. - MB reviews data prior to release; certain data are disseminated to selected users prior to publication and public is not informed that some statistics are not disseminated to all users simultaneously. - Public is not given prior notice of forthcoming methodological and technical modifications; explanations are generally provided upon release. - Compiling unit is clearly identified in publications. - Ethical standards - Law of the BG and labor regulations include a code of conduct covering ethical and professional standards, sanctions, and penalties; new recruits are made aware and staff are periodically reminded. ### National Accounts — methodological soundness, accuracy, serviceability, accessibility - Methodological soundness - Concepts and definitions are very outdated, conforming to those of the SNA 1953. - BG is currently implementing the 1993 SNA. - Scope: GDP and expenditure estimates are based on an outdated base year (1958); BG is compiling new series with 2001 as base year. - Classification/sectorization: outdated, based on ISIC rev. 1; CPC is not used; product categories not identified; supply/use framework not prepared. - Basis of recording: value-added taxes, excise taxes on consumption, and own-production are not factored into estimates; agricultural work in progress is not recorded in period produced; most government transactions recorded on a cash basis. - Source data: almost exclusively administrative records; censuses are not conducted; use of surveys is very limited; certain source data are untimely and persistent loss of data sources is not addressed. - Assessment of source data is not conducted systematically or regularly. - Statistical techniques: no adjustments for informal, illegal, and underground activities; use of inappropriate methods likely results in an overstatement of real GDP growth; quarterly accounts are not prepared. - Assessment and validation: intermediate results are not assessed and consistency of statistical output is not checked; revision studies are not prepared. - Serviceability - Periodicity and timeliness: dissemination of real sector statistics meets GDDS recommendations; annual real GDP data are published 6–9 months following the reference period. - Consistency: overall consistency between output and expenditure estimates of GDP; inconsistencies related to maquila sector and government; data series consistent across 1950–2003 but series have not been adjusted for changes in source data; national accounts consistent with balance of payments and have more extensive coverage than fiscal statistics. - Revision policy and practice: revision policy focuses on preliminary data; publications identify revised data but do not provide information on the revision; revisions are not analyzed; public not provided with schedule for updating coefficients and base year. - Accessibility - Data accessibility: national accounts published in hard copy and on the website; longer series, more detail, and unpublished data available upon request. - Public informed when data are disseminated, but no specialized publication or advance release calendars; procedures for obtaining unpublished information not adequately publicized; data not made available simultaneously to all users. - Metadata accessibility: metadata prepared but only for internal use; tables, charts, and brief descriptions published; national accounts metadata prepared in context of GDDS participation. - Assistance to users: publications indicate points of contact but users are unable to access compilers directly; public library open and seminars offered; no catalog of publications. ### Consumer Price Index (CPI) — methodological soundness, accuracy, serviceability, accessibility - Methodological soundness - Concepts and definitions generally in line with the CPI Manual, 2004. - Prices and weights broadly follow national accounts concepts (1993 SNA) for monetary consumption expenditure. - Level of detail for commodities and services sufficient for detailed analysis. - Scope and coverage - CPI weights cover urban households of all income levels and occupations. - Expenditure of rural households (38 percent of all household spending, according to the 1998–99 NSHIE) is not covered. - Consumption of own-produced goods and imputation for rental of owner-occupied housing are excluded. - Classification/sectorization - CPI classified using Guatemalan version of COICOP with departures (e.g., alcoholic beverages and tobacco included in miscellaneous items). - Basis for recording and source data - Prices and weights recorded using market or transaction values; prices do not include discounts except when items are to be discontinued. - Purchases of automobiles registered on a net basis; used goods identifiable. - Source data adequate; sampling frame for 1998–99 NSHIE was the 1994 population census, adjusted with updated maps covering entire territory. - NSHIEs have been conducted with insufficient frequency (about 20 years); no plan to conduct NSHIEs every 5 years. - Purchases in informal markets are reflected in CPI weights (noted as good practice). - Accuracy and reliability - Validation limited to routine checks for extreme values, consistency, and incompleteness. - Nonresponse rates monitored; sampling errors not monitored regularly; nonsampling errors not calculated. - Use of geometric mean for price changes is sound. - Treatment of missing prices, quality adjustment, and new products needs improvement. - CPI not compared with the WPI; price data validated with ministries. - Serviceability - Revision policy: monthly CPI data are not revised; new weights analyzed prior to implementation; weights not periodically assessed for bias; notes on price data adjustments stored in database; studies on last CPI revision were not carried out. - Periodicity and timeliness: price collection is daily; monthly CPI published on the seventh day following the reference month, exceeding GDDS recommendations and SDDS prescriptions. - Consistency: CPI internally consistent by expenditure category and geographical area; continuous historical series with December 2000 as reference base available up to September 2004; linked to previous series with March–April 1983 reference base (linking information not published but available upon request). - Accessibility - Data accessibility: executive summary presented to the press on the seventh of each month and posted on the NIS website (with irregular lag up to a few days); more comprehensive statistics disseminated in hard-copy and CDs. - Time series are insufficient; certain series (food items) not seasonally adjusted. - Longer time series accessible via electronic database maintained by the National Centers of Statistical Information or upon request. - CPI is released on the seventh day of the month but not released to all users simultaneously. - Metadata accessibility: only limited metadata available in hard-copy and CD; no detailed documentation available; metadata prepared in context of GDDS participation. - Assistance to users: prompt service available through National Centers of Statistical Information; CPI publications and NIS website indicate contact points; NIS prepared materials for schools and universities; list of publications available to users. ### Government Finance Statistics (GFS) — methodological soundness, accuracy, serviceability, accessibility - Methodological soundness - Concepts and definitions generally consistent with recommendations of the GFSM 1986. - At present, no plan to migrate to the GFSM 2001. - Scope and coverage - Fiscal statistics disseminated by the MOF cover only the budgetary central government; monthly and annual coverage excludes certain non-budgetary central government units (including the social security agency), local governments, and public enterprises. - No fiscal statistics on operations of consolidated central government, local governments, consolidated general government, or consolidated nonfinancial public sector. - Expenditure disseminated by functional and economic classification in general. - Published debt data do not follow recommended classification; domestic debt stocks are not published; external debt stocks by holder and instrument must be estimated by users from published data. - Basis for recording and source data - Transactions registered at market prices using exchange rates for relevant period and presented on a gross basis, shown net of VAT refunds due to exporters. - Recording is on a cash basis, with a few deviations for monthly data. - Source data on budgetary central government are comprehensive and timely; source data for rest of public sector are scarce and frequently received with substantial lags due to nonreporting. - Assessment of source data and techniques - Central government operations consolidated and processed by IFIS since 1998; IFIS ensures adequate validation, cross-checking, accuracy, and timeliness. - Automation of tax collection through banking system has ensured adequate verification of tax data. - Statistical techniques broadly adequate; compilers download IFIS accounting data into Excel to create inter-linked derivation tables. - Sampling techniques not used to estimate operations of local governments. - Assessment, validation, and revisions - Compilers verify intermediate data with Superintendency of Tax Administration, the BG, and other public sector entities; debt stocks and flows are reconciled. - Part of domestic financing estimated as a residual; no regular procedure to investigate errors and omissions. - Revision studies are not conducted; revisions made on a routine basis and revised data are clearly identified in publications but a revision policy has not been explicitly articulated. - Serviceability - Periodicity and timeliness consistent with GDDS recommendations. - Datasets internally consistent; totals for the year can be reconciled with monthly and quarterly figures. - Series published for 1995–2000, except debt stocks published beginning 2002. - MOF publishes adjusted series reflecting changes in source data. - Some shortcomings in inter-dataset consistency because national accounts coverage is more extensive. - Close coordination with BG yields broad consistency of financing and debt stock data with monetary accounts and domestic debt data compiled by BG. - Accessibility - Fiscal statistics disseminated through several MOF websites, including links to in-house sites; data published in clear format though charts and trend analysis are not published. - MOF websites offer easy access to substantial fiscal data updated at least monthly. - Users must make formal request to obtain nonpublished data, including longer series with more detail. - Metadata accessibility: some definitions available in publications but no comprehensive documentation of methods and sources available for publication; metadata prepared in context of GDDS participation. - Assistance to users: each compiling unit responsible for addressing user questions, but publications do not provide contact information of persons responsible; no catalog of publications and related publications not made available through a library or commercial distributors. *Source: _cr05208 - 0. Prerequisites of quality* ### 2. Methodological soundn ### _cr05208 - 2. Methodological soundn ### Methodological soundness — Monetary and Financial Statistics (Central Bank Survey, ODCS, commercial banks) - Concepts and definitions are generally consistent with the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM) of 2000. - Scope of the Central Bank Survey is in line with the MFSM; the Other Depository Corporations Survey (ODCS) excludes other deposit-taking institutions, including the offshore banking sector and credit and savings cooperatives. - Classification/sectorization of BG accounts follow the MFSM; classification/sectorization of commercial banks and other financial institutions is deficient because the outdated Plan of Accounts does not allow sufficient classification/sectorization (including identification of nonresident accounts). - Basis for recording of BG accounts is in accordance with the MFSM. However, for commercial banks: - use of acquisition rather than market prices for securities; - cash instead of accrual recording for interest. - Source data are generally derived from comprehensive data collection programs needed for compiling statistics according to the MFSM; source data for compiling the ODCS lack sufficient detail for accurate classification and sectorization in line with the MFSM. - BG source data approximate MFSM recommendations for definitions, scope, classification, valuation, and time of recording. Balancesheets are routinely reviewed by the SB and BG; banks are consulted for clarification when unusual movements are detected. - Statistical techniques: compilation relies on balance sheet report forms; automated compilation processes reduce processing time and errors. - Assessment and validation: computer programs contain built-in checks for identifying errors and inconsistencies; revision studies are not carried out except on an ad hoc basis. - Periodicity and timeliness meet GDDS recommendations. Historical series dates back to 1995; statistics are revised as needed to take into account more recent information. - Revision policy and practice: no regular, well-established, and transparent procedures exist for data revisions; preliminary data and revisions are footnoted in tables; no regular studies of revisions. ### Accuracy and reliability — Balance of Payments - Concepts and definitions broadly conform with BPM4; some progress has been made in transition to BPM5. - Departures from residency criterion affect estimates of private capital flows that include exchange transactions between residents. - Scope: resident institutional units defined in conformity with BPM5 concepts; coverage of private financial transactions is incomplete, notably direct and portfolio investment and foreign assets/liabilities of banks. - Classification/sectorization: departures from BPM5 — goods for processing not identified separately (included net in services); portfolio and other investment not classified in the four recommended institutional sectors (monetary authorities, general government, banks, and other sectors). - Basis for recording: - Transactions valued at market prices if available. - Services, income, and financial transactions recorded on a cash basis; no adjustment to convert interest to accrued. - Most current account items recorded gross, but goods for processing increasingly recorded net. - Financial account items mainly recorded net; asset and liability transactions not identified separately. - Source data: principal sources are customs records for trade and the International Transactions Reporting System (ITRS) for other transactions. ITRS, administered by banks, is insufficient and not fully reliable. Virtually no data collected through surveys; supplementary administrative records used. - Assessment of source data: extreme values of ITRS are verified with banks but not systematically; no explanatory notes are kept; no other checks to audit veracity and accuracy of ITRS-collected data. - Statistical techniques: customs records received electronically minimize processing errors; ITRS reports received in hardcopy and processed manually. Outliers are not checked properly. Adjustment procedure to estimate imports (FOB) is sound, based on customs documents. - Assessment and validation: intermediate results not always checked across a wide range of data sources; media reports not used to verify high-value direct investment; cross-check verifications insufficient (trade data not validated with partner-country information; creditor debt data not contrasted with official estimates). - Revision studies: direction and magnitude of revisions of preliminary data are evaluated, but no formal studies are conducted to keep record of revisions. - Periodicity and timeliness are in line with GDDS recommendations. - Consistency: generally consistent with other major statistical frameworks; foreign assets and liabilities of the banking sector are not taken from bank balance sheets. Net errors and omissions relatively stable; private capital flows present large and unexplained fluctuations with no explanatory notes. - Revision policy and practice: revision cycle follows a regular schedule but is not made known to the public; users informed when data are preliminary at dissemination; analyses of differences between revised and preliminary data are not published. - Data accessibility: data available via BG website and hard copy publications but not presented to facilitate proper interpretation; tables with sufficient detail are not available; no specific reference to availability of nonpublished sub-aggregates or terms/conditions for access. - Metadata accessibility: official metadata document is not available; departures from international standards are not documented. Balance of payments metadata have been prepared in the context of GDDS participation. - Assistance to users: a general BG contact note with an e-mail address (webmaster@banguat.gob.gt) is provided; a specific contact person within the balance of payments unit is not identified. ### Serviceability (summary of practical usability) - Periodicity and timeliness for key datasets meet GDDS recommendations in most areas. - Consistency is supported by continuous verification by BG and SB, automated compilation systems, and coordination with MOF, subject to differences in coverage. - Historical series availability: monetary statistics series back to 1995; national accounts work under way for 2001 as a benchmark. - Data presentation facilitates interpretation with extensive detail, charts, and explanations; no pre-announced release schedule though dissemination intervals (weekly, monthly, quarterly, annually) on the BG website and to media are well known to the public. - Metadata on concepts, scope, classifications, sources, and techniques have not been published; dissemination on IMF GDDS website was expected in the months ahead (at time of assessment). ### Accessibility (data and metadata access and user assistance) - Data dissemination: BG website and media; additional details available upon request. - Metadata accessibility: documentation pending publication; balance of payments metadata prepared for GDDS. - Assistance: BG contact points (compiling department telephone, fax, e-mail) indicated on BG Internet website; other publications/reports available upon request. - Balance of payments unit: no specific contact person identified; only general BG contact provided. ### Key recommendations — Cross-cutting and dataset-specific (priorities and other) - Cross-cutting — High priority: - Launch robust, coordinated effort to strengthen statistical culture with high-level political support; reform NIS law and run coordinated public relations campaign; commit to enforce related laws and regulations. - Reform the NIS law to increase institutional and financial independence by: - appointing head of the NIS for a period overlapping that of the government; - granting the head of the NIS a leadership role and the right to vote within the NIS’s governing body; - making the NIS budget subject to direct approval by Congress in the context of a multi-year plan; - increasing sanctions for nonresponse and preserving the value of fines in real terms. - Cross-cutting — Other: - Strengthen coordination among statistical producers (BG, SB, NIS) to improve monetary statistics and calibrate CPI periodicity with financial programming/inflation targeting (PRONAME). - Invoke legal framework (NIS law) in requesting data; post data on websites promptly; publish arrangements for advance access identifying recipients. - Monitor user needs; conduct regular consultations and sponsor user groups. - Establish and publish advance release calendars and a well-defined revision policy including formal revision studies. - Publish information on concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, data sources and statistical techniques for all datasets; make longer series and more detail easily available with explanatory material on inter-temporal consistency. - Explore BG contracting NIS for statistical services (PPI, national accounts basic data). - National Accounts — High priority: - Announce publication by early 2005 of national accounts for 2001 to serve as benchmark for new series consistent with 1993 SNA. - Adhere to plan for publishing a new national accounts series (2001–04), consistent with 1993 SNA with 2001 as the base year by early 2006. - National Accounts — Other: - Produce quarterly national accounts based on the new annual series with suitable short-term indicators; use benchmarking procedures to ensure consistency among monthly, quarterly, and annual growth rates. - Conduct censuses and surveys based on an updated enterprise directory; strengthen BG–NIS–MOF collaboration. - Prepare rough estimates of the new series based on chained indices as internal validation; strengthen documentation and follow-up on deviations from best practice. - Establish schedule for regularly updating base year (preferably every five years, but no lower periodicity than every 10 years); form a permanent working group. - Prepare producer price index (in collaboration with NIS) to strengthen valuation basis. - Use databases instead of spreadsheets to ensure data security, documentation, data-sharing, verification, and training. - Strengthen capacity building and reduce excessive dependence on external assistance. - Consumer Price Index — High priority: - Apply standard COICOP to improve classification of alcoholic beverages, tobacco, restaurants, and hotels. - Allocate more resources to NIS to strengthen CPI processing staff, increase electronic equipment for interior offices, facilitate greater contribution to national accounts source data, and fund compilation of a producer price index (at least for manufacturing). - Consumer Price Index — Other: - Study accuracy gains from including rural household consumption, rentals of owner-occupied dwellings, and goods produced for own final consumption in CPI weights (data available in the 1998–99 NSHIE). - Monitor ENCOVI results to ensure CPI weights reflect changing consumption patterns; conduct new NSHIE if insufficient. - Monitor consumer markets to identify new products and quality changes; prepare plan for changes and treatment of missing prices. - Government Finance Statistics — High priority: - Expand coverage to include social security agencies, local governments, and nonfinancial public enterprises; consider severe penalties in budget law to ensure compliance with reporting requirements. - Adhere to IFIS timetable to publish general government statistics by early 2006 with collaboration from Institute of Municipal Promotion and NIS. - Government Finance Statistics — Other: - Disseminate debt data classified by holder, instrument, and maturity as recommended by GFSM 1986. - Intensify staff training on methodological and compilation topics. - Strengthen coordination among MOF units for migration to GFSM 2001; compile inventory of central government assets/liabilities and publish preliminary public sector financial balance sheet. - Strengthen consistency with other datasets through extended collaboration with central bank on government financing, national accounts, balance of payments, and debt. - Prepare medium-term plan to preserve IFIS efficiency after World Bank funding ends. - Monetary Statistics — High priority: - Widen coverage to include offshore banks and credit and savings cooperatives. - Broaden sectorization of depository corporations’ assets and liabilities to permit residency criterion application and more complete sectorization in line with MFSM (private and public sector by levels of government). - Adopt accrual accounting principles in plan of accounts for commercial banks and other depository corporations. - Adopt market price valuation as a general principle in compilation of monetary statistics. - Monetary Statistics — Other: - Prepare medium-term plan to expand coverage to other financial corporations (insurance companies, pension funds, financial auxiliaries) to permit construction of a Financial Corporations Survey as recommended by MFSM. - Balance of Payments — High priority: - Implement conversion of balance of payments statistics into BPM5 and publish the data without delay. - Substantially expand sources by implementing new ITRS forms, conducting surveys (begin with foreign investment), and using administrative data (financial institutions’ balance sheets, MOF grants, embassy transaction records at Ministry of Foreign Affairs). - Modify new ITRS form following BPM5 classification and sectorization to identify transactions involving financial assets and liabilities and residency status of transactors. - Balance of Payments — Other: - Implement systematic cross-checking verification for quality validation of ITRS reports using banks’ balance sheets and offshore bank data from the bank superintendence; databases from international organizations (e.g., BIS and OECD); trade statistics from main trading partners; and surveys (e.g., OIM migrants’ transfers). - Seek to reduce excessive staff turnover and make compilation performance the primary factor in staff evaluation and promotion for BOP compilers. *Source: _cr05208 - 2. Methodological soundn (IMF ROSC assessment content provided in the source PDF).* ### 1. As part of the process of statistical strengthening, with a view to adopting the United ### DETAILED ASSESSMENT USING THE DATA QUALITY ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK (DQAF) — National Accounts ### Statistical strengthening and national accounts base-year update - Second framework of technical cooperation between the BG and the NIS signed in 2004 to support adoption of the United Nations’ fourth national accounts manual, 1993 SNA, and selection of a recent base year. - PRONAME (National Program for Improving Economic Statistics) aims to implement specific work programs to collect basic statistical information required by the 1993 SNA. - Based on PEEC and other investigations, the following 2001-base estimates were prepared in 2004: - preliminary production and generation of income accounts for 143 activities included in the Guatemalan Classification of Economic Activities (NAEG); - supply and use balance sheets for 226 products; - supply and use tables. - Final results to support formal adoption of the 1993 SNA will be available in the first half of 2006, after calculations for 2002, 2003, and 2004 under the new methodology and statistical consistency analyses. - International consultants specializing in basic statistics have been hired to ensure technical quality in implementing the 1993 SNA. ### Balance of payments (BPM5) implementation - Actions taken on recommendations from the IMF Balance of Payments Statistics mission to Guatemala, March 9–18, 2004. - Bank of Guatemala included in its budget for 2005 resources to improve balance of payments records. - Planned actions include enterprise surveys, hiring an external advisor, and redesigning forms to collect inward and outward foreign exchange transactions. - Full adoption of BPM5 expected in 2006 based on these actions. ### NIS operations, CPI and household survey plans - National Survey on Household Income and Expenditure (ENIGFAM) to be planned in 2005 and conducted in 2006 and 2007 to change weights in the current CPI. - CPI methodology to be published during 2005. - CPI defined as an indicator of the expenditure of urban households; it excludes rural households and estimated expenditure (for example, rents imputed to owners are not included). - Practices revised: - Negotiated prices for foodstuffs abandoned; goods purchased at the first price given by the seller. - Seasonal goods temporarily absent from the market: a constant price is used until the product reappears (the practice of estimating absent seasonal prices was not implemented to avoid perceptions of arbitrary price changes). - Salaries of technical and professional staff of the NIS were changed in December 2004 to levels more in line with other government agencies. ### Ministry of Finance reforms and budgeting - Introduction of a new fiscal policy method requires improved data collection and presentation for greater transparency. - In February 2005, MOF began preparation of the draft 2006 budget, requiring adoption of performance-based budgeting with a multi-year time frame. - Memoranda of understanding signed with four pilot ministries: Education; Public Health and Social Security; Agriculture, Livestock, and Food; Communications, Infrastructure, and Housing. - Technical Committee on Government Finance created in February 2005 to assist preparation of the draft performance-based budget for 2006 and the multi-year budget for 2006–2008; Committee is fully operational and established under the Organic Budget Law and Regulations. - Committee composition: officials from the Bank of Guatemala, the Secretariat of Planning and Programming of the Office of the President, the Superintendency of Tax Administration, and officials from the Ministry of Government Finance. ### Prerequisites of quality — legal and institutional environment - Legal framework and responsibilities: - NSS responsible for collecting, processing and disseminating national accounts in accordance with the Regulations to the Organic Law of the NIS, Article 6 of Decree 3–85, which came into effect on January 24, 1985. - National accounts compiled and disseminated by the Bank of Guatemala (BG), within the BG by the National Accounts Section (NAS) of the Economic Statistics Department (ESD). - Article 62 of the BG Charter (Ley Orgánica), Decree 16–02, of May 10, 2002, requires the BG to publish a study at least once a year on the most important aspects of the national economic situation and to publish statistics on major macroeconomic variables. - National Statistics Commission (NSC) created September 24, 2004 (pursuant to Articles 20 and 21 of the Regulations to the Organic Law of the NIS, Decree 3–85); chaired by the NIS and comprises BG, Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food, Ministry of Energy and Mines, among other institutions. - Because of NIS financial capacity limits, BG has become involved in collecting and processing basic statistics for national accounts and relies on coordination mechanisms with the NIS; BG lacks standalone legal basis to request information directly from the private sector. ### Data sharing and coordination among producers - Main basic information sources: sectoral statistics from private business organizations and administrative records (Superintendency of Tax Administration, Guatemalan Social Security Institute (IGSS), Municipalities). - Contribution of NIS-prepared census and survey data to current national accounts series has declined to the point where it now accounts for less than one percent in the estimation of GDP from the production approach, and provides only a few coefficients for determining private consumption from the expenditure approach. - Coordination practices: - Occasional meetings with NIS and Ministry of Finance, but no permanent formal mechanisms for coordination and supply of information. - Basic statistics gathering relies on agreements to provide information and cooperation arrangements such as PRONAME. - PRONAME established between the CBG and the NIS in January 2000 to prepare directories and conduct surveys for the new base year 2001; work underway and expected to be wrapped up by the end of the year (context implies 2004). - Framework Cooperation Agreement expired January 2004 but was continued in practice; understanding on a new agreement has been reached. - No formal agreements covering access to taxation data, but in practice no problem compiling national accounts. - Lack of permanent formal mechanisms results in late provision of information and limits ability to improve timeliness of national accounts publications. - NSC could facilitate exchange of information and improve coordination between BG and other entities preparing basic statistics. ### Confidentiality and data protection - Regulations to the Organic Law of the NIS (Article 24) require information obtained by the NSS to be confidential and disclosed only in anonymous form unless legal provision or informant authorization allows otherwise; penalties for disclosure provided in Article 26. - BG advises informants that information will be used for statistical purposes only and is confidential. - National accounts products prepared to avoid disclosure of confidential data (aggregated form or indices). - Individual records are not available to the general public except information pertaining to the person requesting it (Article 31, Political Constitution of the Republic of Guatemala). - Data storage and security practices: - Statistical work based on magnetic records; individually recorded data protected in special restricted-access files on a server supervised by BG Information Processing Unit. - Server operating system: Windows 2000 Server. NAS computers use Windows 2000 and Windows XP Professional 2002. - Databases on specific servers available online with dual security layers; registered database user sign-in required; periodic backup on tapes; firewalls and access logging. - Hardcopy informants' information kept under lock and key and later destroyed in BG’s shredding machines. ### Statistical reporting mandate and response - BG not legally authorized to compile data by itself, but NIS law and Central Bank participation in NSS and NSC allow BG to request information; BG uses cooperation agreements with NIS for collecting basic statistics for new series (base year 2001). - Article 24 of the Organic Law of the NIS makes data reporting mandatory for public and private sectors; response rate higher for public sector than private sector. - Response from foreign firms and maquila firms is considerably lower or nonexistent. - Response rate not systematically monitored. - Violations of data reporting obligations defined (Articles 37 and 38), but penalties fixed in nominal terms (Article 39) and are rarely applied. - PRONAME is the principal alternative mechanism to ensure provision of information for the new national accounts series: prepares forms, trains information managers, and provides contact points for informants. *Source: Detailed Assessments Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework, Statistics Department, International Monetary Fund, June 10, 2005.* ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources ### Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing - NAS has 32 technical staff. - Two staff are working on the presently published series (1953 SNA methodological foundation; 1958 base year). - The remainder are working on development of the national accounts for 2001 based on the 1993 SNA. - For the 1958-base series: two technical staff compile information and produce the accounts. - For constructing the 2001-base series: 29 technicians are working on processing of source data and compiling the base year. - One information processing expert is responsible for the computer programs. - PRONAME provided processing support by hiring 175 temporary staff to prepare the directory and process the surveys. - The BG is firmly committed to completing the 2001-base exercise in accordance with 1993 SNA rules and has committed nearly 95 percent of its human resources to this purpose. - The 2001-base exercise is expected to be completed by December 2004; main data gathering work has already been done and compilation work is being wrapped up. - Staff experience distribution: - 25 persons have been involved with the national accounts for less than 10 years (15 of these for less than five years). - 5 people have been with the unit between 11 and 20 years. - 2 persons for longer than 20 years. - Retirement provisions: retirement age is at 50 years, or after 25 years of service. - Salaries paid to NAS personnel are competitive. - Information processing resources: - All NAS staff have a personal computer generally consisting of a Pentium IV processor with RAM exceeding 260 MB, a hard disk with a capacity of more than 18GB, and CD readers. - Office equipment includes a fax machine, two printers, and a photocopier. - CSPRO adopted in March 2003 for recording survey data; initially applied for the First Economic Survey of Businesses and Establishments (PEEC). - Local initiatives include adaptation of data capture program of DINEL done in PowerBuilder to extract information through the SQL Server. - Servers have permanent administrative programs for making backup copies on tape with Linear Tape-Open Family (LTO) and Digital Linear Tape (DLT), kept in BG vaults. - LAN with Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TSP/IP) allows NAS technical staff communication. - Physical offices, furnishings, office equipment and transportation arrangements for data gathering are appropriate. - BG provides funding for normal work of gathering, compiling and publishing the national accounts and for projects to update the national accounts. Budgetary procedures provide information to BG authorities enabling allocation of necessary funding. Financial programming horizon facilitates planning of statistical improvements because changeovers of BG’s senior officials do not affect project continuity. ### Measures to ensure efficient use of resources - NAS staff performance is evaluated every four months; results are considered in promotion policies. - Development of Excel macros has significantly improved compilation efficiency. - SPSS is used to process BG surveys and the PEEC. - NAS has conducted three evaluations of statistical methodology and compilation systems with international technical assistance; these evaluations were never published: - First evaluation led to change of base year from 1958 to 1978 in accordance with 1968 SNA guidelines. - Second evaluated application of the 1993 SNA for 1998 to assess data sources and determine additional information to request. - Third involved change of base year from 1958 to 2001 using 1993 SNA rules. - The Organizational Development Department evaluates resources allocated for compiling statistical information against strategic objectives. - BG uses an electronic procedure for preparing its budget, facilitating resource allocation. - Under the Strategic Institutional Plan 2003–2007, directors and section heads prepare annual work plans; these are approved in December by the Monetary Board (MB) and published in the official gazette (Diario de Centroamérica). Program execution is monitored by the Department of Organizational Development, reporting to the General Manager, who reports quarterly to the MB. - Identified weakness: working methods are not fully adapted to high staff turnover; needs include better documentation of sources and procedures and greater emphasis on databases rather than electronic files to strengthen institutional memory and facilitate training. ### Relevance and quality management - Users outside the BG are consulted informally; an e-mail address exists but is used mainly to respond to queries. - Section heads and departmental managers are responsible for quality of research and statistical work. - There are no specific procedures in place for monitoring the quality of the national accounts; no specific mechanisms established to meet new needs of external users. - Procedures exist within national accounts programs to take account of best international practices, including the project to change the base year to 2001 in accordance with 1993 SNA guidelines. ### Integrity: professionalism, transparency, and ethical standards - The law does not mention professional independence in preparation of national accounts; professional independence is implicitly recognized through BG credibility and prestige. - Appointment details: - President of the BG is appointed by the President of the Republic for a term of four years (Article 28, BG Charter); term overlaps President of the Republic. - Senior officials such as Director of the Department of Economic Statistics are nominated by the General Manager and appointed by the MB (paragraph d) of Article 34, BG Charter). - Other officers and employees, such as head of NAS, are appointed and removable by the General Manager (Article 34, BG Charter) on basis of technical competence. - NAS personnel appointment criteria include completion of the third year of an economics degree program and possessing computer skills. - Promotions are handled through evaluation of theoretical and practical knowledge, years in service, and a performance appraisal by the immediate superior. - Staff have access to training locally and abroad; however, training is regarded more as a “bonus” than as input directly tied to a human capital development program. - On-the-job professional development occurs with support of international consultants and through conferences, seminars, and exchanges (example: national accounts workshop in BG between January 13 and February 7, 1997, under the 1993 SNA implementation project). - Barely enough technical staff to cover routine activities, making research and statistical analysis difficult. - Choices of sources and methods are based solely on statistical considerations. However, information about the change of base year from 1958 to 1978 was withheld indefinitely, perhaps because of impact on macroeconomic ratios. - BG provides media with explanatory materials and reports when publishing information; Institutional Relations Department prepares clarifications for misinterpretation or misuse of statistics and distributes press reports. Media coverage is monitored internally by Panorama Noticioso via the BG intranet. - BG has posted its Organic Law (Charter) on its web site; national accounts publications identify where more information about the data producing agency and its products can be found. - On exceptional occasions when the government has advance access to national accounts, this fact is not reported to the public. - National accounts products are clearly identified as NAS or BG products with a logo; source notation used for tables/graphs. NAS does not request attribution when data are used or reproduced. - Users are given advance notice of major changes in methodology, source data and techniques (example: BG’s 2003 annual report (Memoria de Labores), published in June 2004, gave notice of selection of a recent base year for adoption of the 1993 SNA). - BG staff are informed of rules of conduct in the BG Charter (Article 37) and internal directives, including Regulations of Labor Relationships (MB, Resolution MB–175–2002). Article 29 addresses “code of conduct”; Articles 99–106 specify penalties. New staff receive induction and copies of regulations; reminders provided periodically. ### Methodological soundness: concepts, definitions, and scope - Current published series use concepts and definitions consistent generally with 1953 SNA Rev. 2, using 1958 as base year. - Significant discrepancies exist relative to 1993 SNA concepts, definitions, standards and rules. - In 1997 decision taken to implement 1993 SNA for a more recent year; in 2002 decision to take 2001 as base year. Results are promised for the end of this year, and the new historical series with base year 2001 are to appear next year. - In terms of concepts and definitions, classifications, worksheets and tables for the central framework have been constructed using 1993 SNA rules: - Classifications and worksheets for Institutional Sectors, Transactions, Industries (activities) and Products. - Tables prepared for central compilation framework: Supply and Use, Integrated Economic Accounts, Cross-Classification of Industries and Financial Transactions. These tables are in Excel spreadsheet format, provide intermediate results and assure consistency, and are a local adaptation of a United Nations Statistics Division application. - Scope (coverage) for 1958-base accounts: - Accounts compiled regularly on: 1) Annual value added for 11 economic activities that make up Gross Domestic Product (GDP), at constant 1958 prices. 2) Annual Expenditures of GDP at current prices and at constant 1958 prices. 3) Annual Gross National Product (GNP) at current prices and at constant 1958 prices. - Gross Output is estimated for some economic activities at constant 1958 prices. - Quarterly national accounts with 1958 base year are not compiled. - Delimitation and production boundary follow 1953 SNA guidelines: - Maquila activities quantified as services exports using balance of payments as source; no data recorded for territorial enclaves in the rest of the world or for free zones. Workers employed part of the year in other countries are not included. - Own-account production of final consumption goods, in-house research and development, production of goods for own-account fixed capital formation, mineral exploration, production of entertainment, literary, artistic originals and computer software are not included. - BG has not conducted studies to determine significance of excluded variables but considers contribution minor given national economy characteristics. - Production entering the country illegally is not considered, although its volume is significant and, according to Business Opinion Survey (EOE), is having a negative impact on manufacturing output. BG has no estimate of its economic importance. - Informal and “underground” activities are excluded from 1958-base output; independent sources consider these significant. Proper coverage could make the new 2001 base level of activity at current prices close to or even higher than the amount measured on the 1958 base. - The 1958-base national accounts do not include the delimitation of assets. *Source: _cr05208 - 0.2 Resources* ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization ### _cr05208 - 2.3 Classification/sectorization ### Classification and sectorization systems - The national accounts classification and sector system is "for the most part not consistent with currently recommended international systems." - Systems in use: - ISIC Rev. 1 is used for classifying economic activities under the 1953 SNA. - COFOG is used for classifying government functions. - Common Latin American Classification of Tax Revenues (CLACIT) is used for government revenues. - The Central Product Classification (CPC) is not used because activities are not distinguished by product and there is no supply-use table. - The Customs unit has identified "more than 100 'nonauthorized' points" at which products enter the country illegally, both from Mexico (essentially fuels) and from Honduras (alcohol and tobacco). ### Basis for recording (valuation, recording basis, grossing/netting) - Valuation: - Valuation rules are "consistent in part with the 1953 SNA directives." - For the base year 1958: gross output valued at producer prices; intermediate consumption at purchase prices; GDP expressed at market prices. - Own-use production, selective taxes on consumption and sales and VAT are not considered; no corrections made for transfer prices. - Exports and imports of goods are expressed at FOB values. - Figures in US dollars (from balance of payments) are converted into local currency using the average annual weighted buying and selling rates for the banking system. - Recording basis: - Recording rules follow the 1953 SNA directives. - The 1958-base series reflects an accrual approach except in certain cases (Agriculture and General Government). - Work in progress for growing crops is not recorded in the period when it is produced. - Most government transactions are recorded on a cash basis owing to source data limitations. - Grossing/netting: - Grossing and netting procedures are "adhered to insofar as the source data permit." - Transactions between establishments of the same firm are recorded at gross values for the 1958-base series. ### Source data: overview and coverage - Transition: - National accounts are in transition from a 1958 base year to a 2001 base year; source data differ substantially between the two series. - Predominant reliance: - Recently published series source data are "almost entirely based on administrative records rather than surveys, contrary to international recommendations." - Decline of censuses and surveys: - Annual censuses and surveys were widely used in earlier decades of the 1958-base series; censuses are no longer in use. - Two surveys currently used for the 1958-base series: - EOE (survey of industrial activity) produced by BG since 1981. - NSHIE conducted by NIS between 1979 and 1981 and between 1998 and 1999 for private (household) consumption measurement. - Administrative sources: - Principal information sources include administrative records of ministries, municipalities, businesses, business associations, and the BG. - No single comprehensive administrative source exists; multiple administrative sources have limitations in coverage, definitions, and stability. - Rapid growth in use of administrative records during the 1980s and 1990s was driven by absence of censuses and surveys. - Coverage: - The deterioration of the statistical base has reduced coverage of GDP in terms of basic sources to below 80 percent of economic activities. - Coverage status by sector (qualitative summary from text): - High coverage: public administration and defense. - Average coverage: agriculture and private construction. - Low coverage: services and trade. - Manufacturing is based on a qualitative survey. ### Data sources for the 1958-base series (production and expenditure approach) - Production-approach principal sources (summary as presented): - Agriculture, hunting and fishing: Ministries, businesses, associations, NIS, others. - Mining and quarrying: Ministries, businesses, BG. - Manufacturing: Ministries, businesses, BG (EOE), others. - Electricity and water: Ministries, businesses, others. - Construction: Municipalities, businesses, Superintendency, others. - Transport, storage and communications: Businesses, BG, Superintendency, others. - Banking, insurance and real estate: Superintendency, BG. - Public administration and defense: Ministries, municipality, others. - Wholesale and retail trade: (Endogenous estimate). - Owner-occupied dwellings: (Endogenous estimate). - Personal services: Hospitals, universities, associations, NIS, others. - Source: BG. - Expenditure-approach principal sources: - Government consumption: Ministry of Finance, municipalities, IGSS, NIS, ENIGFAM. - Government gross fixed capital formation: Ministry of Finance, municipalities, IGSS. - Private gross fixed capital formation: Sectoral GDP (BG). - Exports of goods and services: Balance of payments (BG). - Imports of goods and services: Balance of payments (BG). - Source: BG. ### Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (IMAE, base year 1995) - IMAE composition: - Consists of 39 indicators prepared exclusively from central government administrative records, associations and private businesses, and BG. - The 39 indicators represent physical units of production or related variables. - They account for "less than 70 percent of GDP" because they exclude mining and quarrying, transportation, storage and communications, construction, and personal services. - Timeliness and dissemination: - IMAE indicators are published with a lag of 45 days after the end of the month. - They are "primarily via the Internet" and provided on request to users. - Example sectoral sources cited (selected): - Agriculture, forestry and fishing: Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food; Cardamom, Sugar and Poultry Producers’ Associations; Coffee, Chicle, Cereals and Rice Producers’ Associations; Banana companies; Rubber tappers' union; National Cereals Council. - Manufacturing: BG; Ministry of Finance (Tax Administration System); Cementos Progreso Company. - Wholesale and retail trade: BG. - Public administration and defense: Ministry of Finance. - Banks, insurance and real estate: Superintendency of Banks. - Owner-occupied dwellings: Municipality of the Department of Guatemala; Wholesale Market Administrator. ### Price indices and real monitoring - Available indices: - Consumer prices, construction prices, central government purchases, and net asset prices — all "highly CPI-dependent." - A producer price index exists for exports and imports of goods and services. - Gap: - There is no producer price index that would allow sectoral output to be monitored in real terms. ### Data sources for the forthcoming 2001-base series and PRONAME - New surveys and sources feeding 2001-base: - Eleventh Population and Sixth Housing Surveys (2002). - Fourth National Agricultural Survey (2003). - National Household Income and Expenditure Survey (1998/99). - National Living Standards Survey (ENCOVI, 2002). - National Employment and Income Survey (ENEI, 2002/03). - PRONAME (BG and NIS implementation) aims to complement basic information for 2001-base and 1993 SNA: - Main PRONAME products: - DINEL directory of firms (April 2002). - PEEC business survey (December 2003). - DINEL: - Directory of businesses and establishments (220,000 essentially urban) by economic activity (ISIC Rev. 3). - Used to prepare sampling frameworks for sectoral surveys. - Covers all businesses, incorporated or not; identifies principal, secondary, and auxiliary activities and employment levels. - Excludes financial intermediation companies because of their lack of response. - PEEC: - Included a sample of 3,332 firms (with their corresponding establishments) derived from DINEL. - Intended to provide records for production accounts by branch, revenue-expenditure and capital financing accounts by institutional sector, and supply-use tables. - The United States Census Bureau helped conduct PEEC under a contract signed in December 2002 (contract reference in text). - Output tables and technical assistance: - Preliminary output, absorption, and supply-use tables are available for the year 2001 (October 2004); the final version is expected "by the end of the year." - Since 1997, BG contracted international technical assistance; main outcomes include system of classifications and worksheets and preliminary supply-use tables. - Technical assistance involved "the services of several experts, totaling approximately 36 person-months." ### Timeliness and assessment of source data - Timeliness varies with coverage: - Timely data: public administration and defense; financial sector. - Late data: private construction, agriculture, electricity. - Very late data: trade and personal services. - Assessment practices: - Administrative records from various institutions are evaluated and reviewed for consistency before compilation; trends over time are compared, but this is done on an "irregular and unsystematic basis." - EOE survey data are examined for accuracy on a "somewhat more regular basis"; informants are questioned about abnormal values. - Sampling errors in the EOE survey are "not monitored." *Source: _cr05208 - 2.3 Classification/sectorization* ### 3.3 Statistical techniques ### 3.3 Statistical techniques ### Data compilation and estimation methods - Missing data that are unobtainable are estimated by various methods, including econometric approaches; the use of these methods is very limited. - No adjustments are made to incorporate informal, hidden and illegal activities into calculations. ### Production approach procedures - Two general methods used: - Extrapolation method: - Uses information on the volume or value of sectoral output at constant prices to calculate value added at constant prices, by economic activity (mining and quarrying, private construction, transport, storage and communications). - In some cases, quantum indices are applied to base-year price estimates, by product and type of service (community, social and personal services, owner-occupied dwellings, and trade). - Assumes constant productivity so the ratio between value added and output is fixed; reliance on fixed ratios is not monitored. - Wholesale and retail trade sector is derived by applying a marketing coefficient obtained from the 1965 business census to an aggregate known as “marketable output” (farming and manufacturing output plus imports). (footnote references present in source) - Double deflation method: - Used when information is available; output and intermediate consumption are estimated separately at constant prices to calculate value added as the difference (applied to agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing, manufacturing, electricity, gas and water, public construction, banking and insurance, public administration and defense). - GDP by production is published disaggregated for 11 branches of activity; value added is not disaggregated into its components due to lack of information. - There are no detailed estimates of intermediate consumption. - Owner-occupied housing output is valued as estimated rentals tenants would pay for similar accommodation. - Only permanent crops and land improvements are valued as work in progress. ### Expenditure approach procedures - Gross fixed capital formation, government consumption, and exports and imports of goods and services are derived independently. - Private consumption is derived indirectly using fixed ratios from the last NSHIE, with wages, consumer financing, and the interest rate as qualitative indicators. - Changes in inventories are determined by the difference between GDP by production at constant prices and the expenditure components. - Gross fixed capital formation is estimated by the flow of goods based on output of capital goods in farming, industrial and construction sectors and imports of capital goods. (source notes: all imports assumed traded, implying overestimating direct imports) - Government consumption is based on expenditure estimates using information from the Ministry of Finance, the IGSS, and major municipalities. - GDP at current prices from the expenditure side is obtained by applying private consumer price indices; exogenous estimates at current prices are used for final consumption by general government, and for imports and exports of goods and nonfactor services. - Expenditure estimates are compiled in an aggregated manner; ratios are fixed and correspond to the year 1958, except the ratio used to determine private consumption. - Incidental sales are not included in government final consumption; expenses of residents abroad or of nonresidents in the economy are not included in private consumption (instead included under services in the balance of payments). - Data for general government use the concept of cash value; for certain decentralized institutions, financial statements are used and the accrual concept is applied. ### Specific quarterly compilation techniques - No quarterly estimates existed in the 1958-based national accounts; BG prepared an internal estimate from 1987 to 2003. - Short-term changes estimated using the IMAE, a Laspeyres-type quantity index: - Calculated by combining sectoral indices constructed using 39 indicators with the 1995 structure of the seven sectors represented (Agriculture, forestry and fishing; manufacturing; trade; public administration and defense; banking, insurance and real estate; owner-occupied dwellings; and electricity and water). - Covers nearly 70 percent of output. - The primary index is filtered using the X-11 Census 2 statistical procedure to obtain cyclical-trend component; the IMAE is the filtered version. - The main problem: the reference base year is obsolete (1958), compounding a deteriorated information base and failing to reflect structural changes since 1958. - Very preliminary and unreconciled figures suggest GDP at current prices with base year 2001 will be lower than 2001 GDP at current prices with 1958 as base year, by varying percentages depending on production or expenditure approach. - Differences in levels after switching base year are normal; for Latin America the range cited in source: -12.2 percent (Bolivia, 1990) to +20.9 percent (Venezuela, 1984); countries listed with base year changes and percentage differences (table in source). - Procedures are being established for estimating new series with base year 2001; GDP growth rate for 2001–2004 with base year 2001 is expected to be less procyclical than with base year 1958 because of Laspeyres fixed base effects. ### Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs (section 3.4) - Data compiled from main sources are not checked against other data sources. - No systematic procedure to routinely assess potential discrepancies in intermediate data. - Given calculation methods, no discrepancies exist between GDP by activity and GDP by expenditure (consistency imposed by method), but there is no supply-and-use framework to investigate discrepancies and ensure coherence. - Cases where products recorded as exports are not included in output estimates (e.g., maquila industry, flowers and foliage). - Problem indicators go uninvestigated: data are not crosschecked against available unofficial estimates of informal activities or surveys on remittances from abroad (references cited in source). ### Revision studies (section 3.5) - No study or analysis of the three revisions made each year. - No major revisions, such as change of base year, since 1958. ### Serviceability: periodicity, timeliness, and consistency (sections 4.1–4.3) - Periodicity: GDP estimates compiled and released annually (GDDS). - Timeliness: Annual GDP estimates disseminated within six to nine months after the end of reference year (GDDS). - Consistency: - No independence between production and expenditure approaches; consistency between growth rates is imposed by the method. - At more disaggregated levels there is no assurance of consistency in treatment of specific items; potential discrepancies between value added and government consumption. - Private consumption excludes adjustments for spending by nonresidents in the country and by residents abroad; these are included under services in the balance of payments. - Time series available from 1950 to present despite significant deterioration in sources; historical series not reconstructed to reflect loss of sources; no detailed methodological notes or analytical text to explain unusual changes. - Revisions practice: - Formal fixed schedule for reviewing estimates during the year: March (estimated), July (estimated), December (preliminary), and after 18 months (definitive). This revision schedule is not made public. Revisions are published at the BG website; reports to Congress (January and July) align revision dates with institutional calendar. - No additional documentation in reports explaining adjustments; revisions outside regular cycle are not publicized. - No formal fixed schedule for revising/updating weightings or measurement methodologies (no pre-established schedule for change of base year); good practice calls for change every five or 10 years. - Publications identify whether data are estimates, preliminary, or definitive, but users are not informed whether published data have been revised. - No studies or analyses of revisions are made public. ### Accessibility and metadata (sections 5.1–5.2) - Presentation: - National accounts data published with charts and tables to facilitate analysis; IMAE published with seasonally adjusted figures. - Publication does not include analysis of current-period trends; no data on national disposable income and savings published. - Statistics published in a form considered too highly aggregated. - Dissemination media and formats: - National accounts published at the BG website (www.banguat.gob.gt) and in printed format (Boletín Estadístico and Estudio de la Economía Nacional). - Longer or more detailed time series provided by e-mail (webmaster@banguat.gob.gt) or by telephone (PBX 2485–6000, 2429–6000), free of charge. - No publication specifically dedicated to national accounts; no press releases facilitating redissemination. - Release practices: - No established schedule with dates statistics are to be released. - Statistics are disseminated simultaneously for all users at the BG website; no pre-release to the media. Government occasionally has advance access. - Other statistics not routinely disseminated are available upon formal request; public not explicitly informed of administrative procedures. - Metadata accessibility: - NAS has summary documentation describing concepts, classifications, methodologies and techniques used; documentation has not been published and access is restricted. - BG is in the process of adhering to the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) of the International Monetary Fund. - Available breakdowns provided upon request; BG does not publish working papers, releasing only texts, tables and graphs with national accounts information. *Source: _cr05208 - 3.3 Statistical techniques* ### 5.3 Assistance to users ### 5.3 Assistance to users ### 5.3.1 Contact points and user outreach - All national accounts publications identify contact points for enquiries by mail, telephone, facsimile, e-mail, or at the website. - The contact points provided at the web site (www.banguat.gob.gt), where users are invited to “contact us”, steer users to the BG and not to the NAS. - Material to raise awareness on the use of the national accounts is not available. - Assistance to users is not monitored, but an attempt is made to respond to requests “as promptly as possible,” through various means. - The BG has a library where the public can, upon request, consult the national accounts documentation. - Presentations to students and seminars for journalists are occasionally held. ### 5.3.2 Catalogs of publications, documents, and charges - The publications containing the national accounts are available to the public free of charge. - There are no specific catalogs listing the national accounts publications. ### Presence of user-assistance shortcomings in overall assessment (Table 1) - Assessment element 5.3 Assistance to users: LNO (Practice Largely Not Observed) indicated by symbol X under LNO in the table. - Comment in table: “There is no direct contact point for the national accounts on the Internet. Publications are available free of charge but there are no catalogs.” ### Related methodological and dissemination constraints affecting users (selected points from Table 1 and text) - Advance governmental access to the national accounts is not announced to the public; advance notice is given of major changes in methodology but “no commitment is made regarding the time frame.” - The concepts and definitions of 1953 SNA are used as a general framework. - The entire series of accounts for the national economy established in 1953 SNA are not compiled. - ISIC Rev. 1 is used to classify economic activities; ISIC Rev. 3 is being implemented. - Work in progress for growing crops is not recorded in the period when it is produced. - Most recording for the government is on a cash basis owing to limitations in the source data. - Sources cover less than 80 percent of economic activities. - No studies and analyses of revisions are carried out; there is a policy for annual revisions but “Studies and analyses of revisions are not made public because they are not carried out.” - “Disposable national income and savings are not published. The statistics are excessively aggregated. There is no schedule for disseminating the national accounts. There is no dedicated publication.” - “There is no public access to metadata. There are no brochures on statistical series. Explanations are very general.” ### Implications for users - Users seeking direct NAS contact via the BG web invitation to “contact us” are directed to the BG rather than to the NAS. - Lack of catalogs, dedicated publications, schedules, and accessible metadata limits transparency and hinders effective use of national accounts by external users. - Limited outreach (occasional presentations, library access by request) provides some access but does not substitute for systematic user assistance or awareness-raising materials. *Summary based on the content of “5.3 Assistance to users” and Table 1 entries in the provided PDF content.* ### Chapter IX of the NIS Law (1985) establishes the sanctions for non-compliance with data ### Chapter IX of the NIS Law (1985) establishes the sanctions for non-compliance with data ### Sanctions and enforcement - Chapter IX of the NIS Law (1985) establishes sanctions for non-compliance with data requests. - Offenses and fines: - Failure to respond to surveys, altering or falsifying data, or unjustified delay: fines ranging from Q25 to Q500 (US$3 to US$64, at the exchange rate prevailing at end-October 2004). - Article 39 of NIS Law: NIS Regulations determine the procedure for applying sanctions and the fine amount to offenders. - Chapter XI of the NIS Regulations (1992) updated fines to a range from Q250 to Q1000 (US$32 to US$127) or twice these amounts for serious transgressions. - Limitations of current sanctions: - Fines are still low (particularly for large and medium enterprises). - No mechanism exists to preserve the fine’s value in real terms. - Enabling legal provisions for requesting information have been rarely invoked and penalties for noncompliance have seldom been levied. - Enforcement approach: - Authorities prefer encouraging voluntary reporting by explaining intended use, confidentiality, and importance of requested information. - Surveys and censuses are announced via radio, television, and newspapers; messages are sometimes translated into regional dialects. ### Survey response and data-collection practices - Response rates: - NSHIE 1998–1999 response: 97.1 percent. - NSHIE 1998–1999 non-response: 2.9 percent, mainly concentrated in the metropolitan area and in the high-income household stratum. - Price surveys nonresponse: around 1 percent. - Nonresponse handling: - Retailers that do not provide information are substituted by other retailers that sell the same items and are located in the same market place. - Questionnaire and respondent burden: - Instruments for price and market-basket weight collection are designed to reduce respondent burden and to account for respondents’ time constraints. ### Resources: staff, facilities, computing, and financing - Staffing for CPI within the Price Statistics Department (PSD): - 12 staff members working on the CPI and 23 field agents and/or supervisors assigned to price collection across 8 geographic regions: 13 in the metropolitan area and 10 in the other 7 regions (the latter 10 field agents cover 14 cities). - Composition table (Permanent / Contractual / Total): - Department Unit: 2 / 0 / 2 - Chief: 1 / 0 / 1 - Assistant: 1 / 0 / 1 - Processing Unit: 3 / 1 / 4 - Programming developer: 0 / 1 / 0 - Deputy: 1 / 0 / 1 - Coordinator of processors: 1 / 0 / 1 - Processors: 1 / 0 / 1 - Analysis Unit: 6 / 0 / 6 - Chief (Analysis Unit): 1 / 0 / 1 - Deputy (Analysis Unit): 1 / 0 / 1 - Staff (Analysis Unit): 4 / 0 / 3 - CPI Section: 13 / 10 / 23 - Chief (CPI Section): 1 / 0 / 1 - Deputy (CPI Section): 1 / 0 / 1 - Field agents/Metropolitan Area: 4 / 7 / 11 - Field agents/Departmental States: 7 / 3 / 10 - Total: 24 / 11 / 35 - Staff experience and tenure: - Nearly a third of CPI staff are contractual; 82 percent of contractual staff have less than one year in service at the PSD. - Average seniority of staff in the CPI: four years. - Years in service distribution (Permanent / Contractual / Total): - 0 – 1: 2 / 9 / 11 - 1 – 3: 5 / 0 / 5 - 3 – 7: 11 / 2 / 13 - 7 – 14: 6 / 0 / 6 - Total: 24 / 11 / 35 - Percentage composition by years in service (Permanent / Contractual / Total): - 0–1: 8.4 / 81.8 / 31.4 - 1–3: 20.8 / 0.0 / 14.3 - 3–7: 45.8 / 18.2 / 37.2 - 7–14: 25.0 / 0.0 / 17.1 - Total: 100.0 / 100.0 / 100.0 - Training and professional development: - CPI staff receive on-the-job training and formal training through courses and seminars, including a few abroad. - Absence of statistical programs in universities complicates further professional development; participation in ad hoc courses limited by budgetary constraints. - Remuneration and labor context: - Salaries at the NIS are about half of those at other ministries and public dependencies. - Monthly wages for field agents amounting to (around Q1,900) are only 75 percent of the estimated cost of the “basic vital basket of goods” (Q2,520.5, US$320.3 by September 2004). - Current minimum daily salary: Q37.67 (US$147 monthly). - Computing and IT resources: - PSD computing inventory: 21 computers (mainly Pentium 4), 1 server (shared), and 10 printers; only 4 computers have Internet access; only supervisors have NIS e-mail accounts. - No computers for CPI data processing and transmission at NIS departmental offices. - CPI computed using applications developed in GENEXUS 6.1 and Visual Fox; SQL Server used to store survey and CPI data; daily backup of CPI data made. - Software not regularly updated due to budget constraints; no equipment maintenance account in the budget. - Premises, equipment, and transport: - NIS does not have its own headquarters; rented building monthly rental: Q50,000; working facilities not fully adequate (cooling, space, restrooms, power system). - Office furniture and equipment are old but broadly adequate. - Transportation: 11 vehicles for CPI data collection, shared with other programs; CPI given priority. - Financing for CPI: - Budget for the CPI program in 2004: 1.36 million Q, representing 2.9 percent of the total NIS budget (47.22 million Q). - A budgetary cut of 20 percent in the public sector and delays in resource allocation affected CPI program execution; rate of execution was only 36 percent as of September 30, 2004. - Special projects (e.g., new NSHIE, changing reference base, methodological studies) are not included in the normal budgetary process and must be financed by donations from international organizations. ### Efficiency measures and technical assistance - Management and planning: - NIS personnel evaluated when first appointed; regular performance assessments are not conducted. - NIS Law envisages a National Plan of Statistics; a draft of the first National Statistical Plan has been prepared and is under review. - Assignation of responsibilities among PSD units is clear; section chiefs meet regularly to monitor progress and analyze CPI results. - Budget reviewed periodically to prioritize scarce resources. - Process innovations: - Computer processing innovations introduced to reduce time and cost of collection, coding, editing, and tabulation. - An efficient application developed using GENEXUS 6.1 and Visual Fox to elaborate the CPI December 2000=100. - Technical assistance received: - From independent consultants, INEGI (Mexico), INEC (Argentina) under IDB’s NSHIE project—assistance on sampling techniques, compiling CPI December 2000=100, and systematizing CPI processes. - IMF provided technical assistance to review CPI methodology in 2000. ### Relevance and quality management - User engagement and dissemination: - NIS has an active program to use computing technology and the Internet for data processing and dissemination; NIS website and two National Centers of Statistical Information provide timely information and track user requests and unmet needs. - NIS does not have regular meetings with NSS entities to discuss statistical development; NIS Directors’ Committee includes key public and private users and is informed of NIS activities. - Users’ committees are created for new censuses or surveys to incorporate user requests into questionnaires. - NIS provides an e-mail address for user contact. - Limitations in outreach and professional interaction: - NIS does not participate regularly in meetings and seminars on price statistics due to budget constraints and because these events are usually conducted in English. - Quality assurance practices: - No official program of quality awareness (e.g., total quality management, ISO 9000), but many elements are in place for monitoring collection, processing, compilation, and analysis of the CPI. - Draft National Statistical Plan includes goals and actions up to 2024 to improve coverage and quality. - Monitoring gaps: complete monitoring processes to inform managers on ongoing quality (editing rates, revisions history, timeliness evaluations) are not in place. - Compilers have access to expert guidance only when resources are donated or lent by international organizations. - Periodic reviews to maintain quality requirements are not undertaken. - Methodological processes: - PSD has an ongoing program to identify changes in specifications for CPI market basket items; new items introduced as needed. - No official advisory group for the CPI; ad hoc advisory groups convened when changes are being considered, focusing mainly on methodological soundness rather than user needs. - National Statistical Commission established on October 7, 2004, comprising representatives from multiple ministries, the BG, universities, and private sector stakeholders. ### Assurances of integrity and professionalism - Independence and impartiality: - In practice, the CPI is produced and disseminated without outside influence. - NIS regulations do not specifically cover attempts at interference/influence on official statistics by outside parties. - NIS Directors’ Committee includes representatives of ministries, public dependencies, and business associations, posing a potential conflict-of-interest risk; the manager of the NIS may not vote in decisions made by this committee. - Managerial appointment and qualifications: - Article 14 of the NIS Law: President of Guatemala appoints and dismisses the manager of the NIS. - Article 15: Manager must be Guatemalan, have a university diploma, be an active member of a professional association, have sufficient competence regarding statistics and related subjects, and be credited by professional experience. - Professional standards and decision-making: - Professionalism promoted through training opportunities; international opportunities rarely utilized due to resource constraints. - Hiring and promotion governed by NIS regulations and the Civil Service Law; generally based on professional merit. - Selection of sources and statistical techniques, and dissemination decisions, are based solely on statistical considerations, subject to budget constraints. - Summary documentation on source data and methodology for compiling the CPI has been prepared and is available to the public. - Communication on misuse or erroneous interpretation: - NIS responds to erroneous interpretations through press releases and other means; monthly press conferences coincide with CPI releases. - Monthly bulletin distributed to the press includes comments on CPI trends and underlying factors to improve user understanding and reduce misinterpretation. - The manager of the NIS is entitled to respond to public criticism of statistics or instances of misuse; few instances have required response. *IMF mission report content provided in source PDF.* ### 1.2 Transparency ### _cr05208 - 1.2 Transparency ### Transparency and dissemination practices - NIS publications include a summary methodology and the technical conditions under which the CPI is calculated. - NIS has posted the NIS Law on its website and maintains two NIS National Centers of Statistical Information under the Department of Dissemination in zones 1 and 12 of Guatemala City. - All CPI publications contain a directory of key personnel for each organizational unit participating in CPI compilation and provide: - NIS website: www.ine.gob.gt - CPI Unit e-mail: IPC_ine@mail.com - NIS National Center of Statistical Information e-mail: inedifusion@intelnet.net.gt - NIS dissemination e-mail: difusion@ine.gob.gt - Approval and internal access: - Published index series approval is stated to be exempt from outside interference. - A number of high-level government officials have embargoed access usually 2 to 24 hours before public release. - The list of officials receiving privileged access is not published; identified recipients include members of the NIS Directors’ Committee and the President of Guatemala. - NIS publications are authorized by the NIS Directors’ Committee; in practice CPI release and publications are authorized by the NIS Manager. - Identification of agency products: - All NIS publications include the Institute’s logo. - Joint publications clearly identify each entity in footnotes or on the title page. - NIS has a policy of releasing CPI publications in a standard format (titles, colors, typography, etc.). - Advance notice of methodological changes: - Major changes in methodology or data sources are not publicized before implementation. - Exception: questionnaires of NSHIE used for new market basket weights were presented ahead of implementation to a group of researchers and specialized users (representatives of the BG, the ministries, the General Secretariat of Planning, and the Secretariat of the Presidency of Guatemala). - For the recent change in the CPI reference base (December 2000=100), a campaign of presentations and meetings was carried out to publicize the change. ### Ethical standards and staff conduct - A manual of instructions for field agents and supervisors provides guidelines about staff behavior. - Civil Service Law provisions: - Title VI (Rights, Obligations and Prohibitions) outlines duties; Article 64 requires discretion for affairs reserved by law, dignity, moral, respect, promptness, efficiency, and impartiality. - Article 66 (Special Prohibitions) prohibits requesting gifts, hiring/promoting based on political affiliation, and holding more than one public position (with exceptions). - Title IX lists sanctions: verbal and written reprehension, work suspension without salary, and dismissal. - NIS law and regulations include articles on confidentiality and improper use of statistical data; each new employee is informed and given a personal copy. ### Methodological soundness — concepts, scope, classification - Concepts and definitions: - CPI concepts and definitions are generally in line with internationally accepted standards as defined by the International Labor Organization, the IMF and others in the Consumer Price Index Manual, 2004. - Prices and weights broadly follow national accounts concepts based on the 1993 SNA/1995 ESA for monetary household consumption expenditures. - Level of detail supports analysis at divisions, groups, classes, and items of the Guatemalan COICOP. - Scope and coverage: - Geographic weights and market basket item weights are based on expenditure data from all urban households included in the 1998–99 NSHIE. - CPI weights cover expenditures of all urban resident households, which represent 62 percent of total consumption expenditure at national level; rural households represented 38 percent of total expenditures at national level but are not covered in the CPI due to budget constraints. - Prices are collected in 15 major cities of the 22 geographic departments; these cities are grouped in eight regions. - Exclusions: - Consumption of illegal market goods and services excluded. - Nonmonetary goods (own-produced agriculture products and goods provided as income in kind) were investigated in NSHIE but excluded from CPI weights. - Value of rent of owner-occupied housing is excluded (imputation was made on rentals of owner-occupied dwellings in NSHIE results); this is a departure from international standard practices. - Materials used in housing repairs are incorporated in the weights. - Classification/sectorization: - Classification and coding for the 1998–99 NSHIE and the CPI are based on a Guatemalan version of COICOP, with departures in divisions: Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco; Transport; Communication; Restaurants; and Hotels. - Index data are published at item level (basic expenditure level). - Expenditure data classified into a seven-digit extended version of COICOP including item varieties. - CPC was not used, but CPI classification is broadly in accordance with CPC at product level. ### Basis for recording and valuation - Market prices: - Expenditures used for CPI weights are based on 1998–99 NSHIE purchaser’s prices including trade and transportation margins and taxes (value added tax); subsidies were discounted. - The only subsidy currently applied by the government is the subsidy on urban transport and is reflected in the market price of transport services in the CPI. - Prices do not include discounts (even when discounts are applied to all purchasers, they are not reflected). - Price bargaining (individually negotiated prices) in cantonal and informal markets is not reflected; international standards recommend buying to determine bargained prices, but practical issues limit implementation. - Bargaining applies to less than 10 percent of food items; the rest are not bargained. - Field agents purchase a sample of 48 food articles to check product specifications (unit of measurement, presentation, quantity, and weight). - Recording basis: - All prices for market basket weights and monthly price collection are measured on an accrual basis. - Market price recorded in period when the item is purchased (for the 48-item sample purchased by field agents); for other items, price is recorded in the period during which the item is offered for sale. - Grossing/netting: - For durable goods (e.g., automobiles), purchases are registered as acquisitions less disposal. - 1998–99 NSHIE allows separation of new versus used purchases and identification of sales of used consumer durables. ### Accuracy and reliability — source data and collection design - NSHIE sampling frame and survey design: - Sampling frame for 1998–99 NSHIE was the 1994 Census of Population and Housing updated to 1997; a total of 11,170 geographic segments/sectors were defined. - Sampling frame contained 1,997,537 housing units of which 7,352 were surveyed. - A two-stage stratified random procedure with replacement was applied; selection probabilities were known. - Territory stratified into 10 geographic strata/regions: 1) metropolitan, 2) north, 3) northwestern one, 4) northwestern two, 5) southwestern one, 6) southwestern two, 7) central, 8) northeastern, 9) southeastern, and 10) Petén. - For each geographic segment (60), the household sample was distributed over the 12-month period March 23, 1998 to April 14, 1999. - Household clusters of 200 housing units in urban areas and 150 housing units in rural areas were designed for cartographic sectors. - A sample size was calculated with an estimation error of 5 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent for each region. - Second-stage sample sizes: 18 households in the urban sectors and 15 households in the rural sectors. - Sampling was based on a Bernoulli distribution (binomial). - Sample was increased in 20 percent to substitute households refusing to respond. - Households were stratified by educational level (high, medium, and low) as a proxy for income. - Although 60 percent of households were located in rural areas and 40 percent in urban areas in the universe, the survey sample was constituted by 60 percent urban households and 40 percent rural households. - Historical frequency: first household income and expenditure survey conducted in 1979–1981; these surveys have been conducted almost every 20 years historically. - NIS currently planning ENCOVI (survey of living conditions) rather than a new income and expenditures survey; ENCOVI typically conducted over four months or one month and may introduce seasonal biases unless modified for CPI needs. - Questionnaire and tabulation: - NSHIE questionnaires were pilot-tested twice. - Tabulations of 1998–99 NSHIE data were sufficient to select item sample and estimate market basket weights. - Purchases valued at purchaser’s prices; own production valued at market prices; imputed rent for owner-occupied housing estimated from market rents — but own production and imputed rent are excluded from CPI weights. - Purchases in informal markets were included in weights. - CPI basket, items, and pricing outlets: - CPI market basket includes a sample of 218 products and services and 422 varieties aggregated into nine divisions, 31 aggregations (COICOP groups), 55 groups (COICOP classes), and 159 sub-groups. - Prices are collected in 15 major cities: Guatemala City, Mixco, Villa Nueva, Chinautla, Amatitlán, Cobán, Jutiapa, Puerto Barrios, Chiquimula, Escuintla, Quezaltenango, Mazatenango, Huehuetenango, Flores, and San Benito across eight principal regions. - All expenditure items from 1998–99 NSHIE with shares greater than five percent with respect to expenditure by group (COICOP classes) and/or reported by more than 10 percent of households were included in the CPI market basket. - Sample of around 9,000 outlets selected for monthly price collection based on shopping patterns from NSHIE and item availability. - Outlets sample divided into three monthly panels of 10 days each covering 40 percent of the sample in the first 10 days, 40 percent in the second 10 days, and 20 percent in the third 10 days. - Effort made to maintain at least 18 monthly sources for each item (six in each 10-day panel). - There are 50,304 monthly price observations/quotations included in the CPI. - Pricing outlets selected purposively using criteria: abundant variety of articles, large purchaser flow, significant consumer sales, and availability of CPI items. - Item selection based on purchase volume; specific varieties chosen for stable and significant sales activity. - Field agents monitor items regularly and compare price behavior with press and other sources (Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Food; Ministry of Energy and Mines; wholesalers; main producer enterprises). - Source data adequacy and timeliness: - Expenditure data from 1998–99 NSHIE and monthly price surveys are adequate for CPI needs; NSHIE designed with CPI in mind for required scope, classification, valuations, and recording period. - Frequency of price collection (daily) is adequate to support publication frequency. - Only monthly price survey data collected between the first and the twenty-seventh of each month are used in CPI calculation; these data are consistently obtained in a timely manner with respondents usually providing information the same day of the interview and zone supervisors following up to ensure timely receipt. *Source: _cr05208 - 1.2 Transparency* ### 3.2 Assessment of source data ### 3.2 Assessment of source data ### Source data assessments and coverage - Nonresponse rates available: NSHIE nonresponse is 2.9 percent; price surveys nonresponse is 1 percent. - Sampling errors for each survey are not monitored on a regular basis. - Nonsampling error information (survey operations, biases, over/under-coverage, misclassification, and processing) is not available. - Prices collected for the CPI are scrutinized; atypical prices are verified with respondents before use. - Positive or negative price variations of more than 10 percent are verified. - The proportion of household final consumption expenditure not covered in regular CPI compilation is 38 percent; this corresponds to household expenditures in rural areas. ### Data compilation and handling of missing/quality changes (statistical techniques) - Processing minimizes coding, editing, and tabulation errors; adjustments to individual records are made only when clearly warranted. - Elementary indices at the item level: weighted geometric mean of short-term price relatives at variety level; weights are regional expenditure shares at variety level. - Higher-level aggregation: modified Laspeyres index (weighted arithmetic mean of the sub-indices). - Temporarily unavailable and seasonally unavailable prices are held constant. - When substitution item/variety prices are available for permanently unavailable items/varieties, the substitution price change is imputed to the permanently unavailable item/variety. - Recommended improvement: impute all missing prices using the price change of the rest of the item’s varieties or the price change of the item’s class to avoid large jumps when prices reappear. - New varieties introduced when two-month observations are available; outlets updated when necessary. - New products are introduced into the CPI only during a major revision of the index (change in the weight reference period). - Quality adjustments generally limited to repackaging adjustments (volume, weight, or count). ### Use of expenditure weights and aggregation practices - Weights established using monetary household consumption expenditure as defined in the 1993 SNA; expenditure weights include purchases in all markets, including informal markets. - Value recorded represents economic cost to the consumer at purchase time regardless of payment method. - Elementary indices use an unbiased formula (weighted geometric mean of price ratios/relatives); short-term price change from previous period is used. - Aggregation uses modified Laspeyres formula (internationally accepted). - Current weight reference period: monthly average expenditures for the period March 1998 to April 1999. - Current price reference period: December 2000. - Weights were not adjusted for price changes to align with the price reference period (Lowe Index); expenditure shares held constant from the weight reference period (Young Index). - Weight reference period was updated within the past five years (1998–99). - When new weights were introduced, series were linked to the old index using splicing methods; linked series are not publicized. ### Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs - CPI is not routinely compared with other major price indices at detailed levels (WPI, export/import price indices only compiled at aggregate level in the national accounts). - Detailed price data compared to other sources (Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Energy). - No implicit deflators of private final consumption expenditures exist in the national accounts; the overall CPI is used to inflate total consumption expenditures at constant prices to current prices. - Data from micro surveys and other sources are not used to improve CPI coverage. - NIS monitors price data constantly; atypical prices are reviewed with collectors and respondents before inclusion. - Price data checked for consistency across similar products and geographic areas; detected errors are investigated and sources of errors addressed. ### Revision studies and documentation - Extensive studies on the 1998–99 NSHIE concerning error levels and consistency in expenditure data; detailed documentation available in a special publication on 1998–99 NSHIE. - CPI is not revised; CPI data are final when released. New weights undergo analysis and validation prior to incorporation. - Weights from 1998–99 NSHIE were compared and analyzed against weights from 1979–81 NSHIE. - Periodic weight revisions are not routinely undertaken to determine CPI bias. - Documentation on price data adjustments is maintained via database notes describing causes and adjustment methods. *Source: _cr05208 - 3.2 Assessment of source data* ### 0. Prerequisites of quality 0.1 Legal and institutional environment ### 0. Prerequisites of quality 0.1 Legal and institutional environment ### Consumer Price Index — Data Quality Assessment (Compiling Agency: National Institute of Statistics) - Key governance and user engagement - Key users are informed and participate in decision making through the NIS Directors’ Committee. - Some duplication of efforts exists, since the BG compiles a weekly CPI with reduced coverage. - Sanctions for non-response are outdated and hardly applied. - The NIS Directors’ Committee, which includes high-level government officials, and the President of Guatemala have embargoed access to CPI data usually 2 to 24 hours before public release. A list with their names is not publicized. In practice, the approval process of CPI results is exempt from outside interference. - Resources and funding - Permanent staff and financial resources are not adequate for maintenance and developmental work. - Use of donations and loans from international organizations for developmental work. - Relevance and user interaction - Statistical Advisory Council is envisaged in the NIS law, but it is not working. - No users’ surveys. - NIS Centers of Statistical Information to the public monitors and keeps records on user’s requests and non-satisfied needs. - Quality management and planning - Statistical plans envisaged in the NIS law, but not implemented so far. - A draft of the first statistical plan is being reviewed. - User’s committees created when a new survey is conducted. - Methodological scope and standards - Only urban households are in the scope of the index. - Consumption of own-produced goods and imputed rentals of owner-occupied housing are excluded from the index. - Some departures from standard COICOP (e.g., alcoholic beverages and tobacco). - Discounts and prices of purchases through bargaining are not included in price data. - Data accuracy, validation, and revisions - The NSHIE have been conducted almost every 20 years historically. There is no a long-term plan to conduct NSHIEs every five years. - Validation is limited to routine checks for extreme values, consistency, and incompleteness. Non-sampling errors are not calculated. While low, non-response rates to surveys are monitored. - Treatment of missing prices, quality adjustment, and new products needs to be improved. Previous price data is imputed for missing prices and seasonally unavailable items. Changes in product specifications/quality are introduced after there are two price observations available. - CPI is not compared with WPI. - Monthly CPI data is final. Studies on the last CPI revision were not carried out. Notes on price data adjustments are stored in the database. - Serviceability and dissemination - Only 3 years of historical data presented. - No published schedule of release dates, but the practice of releasing CPI statistics punctually has accustomed users to expect release on the seventh of each month. - Difficulty in determining what detailed data are available upon request. - Only limited metadata is available in hard copy and CD. No detailed documentation available. - No regular timetable has been set for index updates (major revisions). ### Summary assessment symbols (as presented) - Assessment symbols used in the CPI table: NA = Not Applicable; O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO = Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not Observed; SDDS = Complies with SDDS Criteria. --- ### Government Finance Statistics — Prerequisites of quality (Ministry of Finance) - Legal and institutional environment — mandate and coverage - No specific legal mandate to compile and disseminate the government finance statistics (GFS), but existing legislation (Constitution, Organic Budget Law (OBL) Decree 101–97, OBL Regulations Government Order 240–98, Executive Branch Act Decree 114–97, Government Order 217–95, Annual Budget Law 2003) provides a basis for the Ministry of Finance (MOF) to conduct these tasks and to require reporting by public sector entities. - Legal framework details (selected provisions): - Constitution: Article 183 requires the President to “submit to Congress every four months, through the respective ministry, an analytic report on budgetary execution, for advice and supervision.” - OBL Article 2: broad coverage to entire public sector. - OBL Article 39: refers to decentralized and autonomous entities with exceptions. - OBL Chapter IV Article 47: municipalities must submit approved budgets and information on execution for consolidation. - OBL Regulations Chapter VIII Article 26: DAE to submit to the MOF, within 15 days after the close of each four-month period, a report containing at least: (1) Physical execution of programs and projects, comparing them with the programmed schedule; (2) Financial execution of expenditures by program and project, compared to the programmed schedule; (3) Financial execution of revenues; (4) Economic and financial results for the period; (5) Analysis and justification of the major variations. - OBL Regulations Article 27: DAE to submit to Congress and the Comptroller-General, no later than March 31 of each year, a report on budget implementation and financial statements, and send a copy to the Government Accounting Directorate. - OBL Regulations Chapter IX Article 29: municipal budgets and reports must be submitted no later than January 31 of the fiscal year; budgetary management report for preceding fiscal year no later than March 31, containing: (1) Physical and financial execution of projects and works during the year; and (2) Financial execution of revenues. - OBL Regulations Chapter X Article 31: Liquidation of General Government Budget and Closing of Accounts prepared by the MOF Government Accounts Directorate must contain at minimum: (1) General Balance Sheet of the Government; (2) Statement of Revenues and Expenditures; (3) Other financial statements as relevant; (4) Budgetary execution statements. - OBL Regulations Article 32: State agencies, DAE must submit financial statements and tables to the Government Accounts Directorate no later than March 31 each year. - Limitations noted: - Insufficient emphasis on dissemination of information. - Penalties for noncompliance of reporting to the MOF by DAE and public corporations are not clearly specified. - The MOF responsibility to compile and disseminate GFS is not stated explicitly; legal obligations focus on budgetary and accounting information and on targets/indicators from the 1996 Peace Accords and the 2000 Fiscal Pact. - Despite limitations, the MOF is disseminating a broad range of financial information on “budgetary central government” via its Internet portal, enabled largely by the implementation of the IFAD. - Data sharing, coordination, and users - The Economic and Fiscal Studies and Analysis Directorate (EFSAD) compiles and disseminates the GFS monthly via the Internet, supplemented by debt information from the Public Credit Directorate (PCD) with the same frequency. - The Technical Budget Directorate (TBD) is the unit that sends annual GFS information to the IMF. - Source data are provided by the IFAD through the Integrated Government Account System (IGAS) module. - The TBD, the PCD and the Government Account Directorate (GAD) channel information on financial execution for the current year via IFAD-IGAS for MOF website posting. - The Economic Studies Department of the Bank of Guatemala (DEE) is a major government user of MOF GFS information. - The MOF and the Bank of Guatemala (BG) hold a weekly coordination meeting on monetary and fiscal policy to analyze consistency of government finance statistics and monetary accounts. Meeting attendees listed for MOF and BG senior staff. - Confidentiality and data use - Constitution Article 30: “all acts of the administration are public... except those relating to military or diplomatic matters of national security, and data provided by individuals in confidence.” - NIS Organic Law Article 25: “data obtained by entities and dependencies of the National Statistics System (NSS), of which the MOF is part, are confidential, except in the case of a legal provision to the contrary, or with the express authorization of the informant.” - The Organic Law of the Superintendency of Tax Administration establishes confidentiality obligations (Article 44). - The Civil Service Act does not refer specifically to confidentiality of information handled by government officials. - Apart from the NIS law, other relevant laws do not establish penalties for failure to fulfill confidentiality obligations. - The IFAD contains standards of security and access profiles for different users, consistent with existing legislation and internal MOF standards. - Reporting compliance and legal authority - The MOF has legal authority under the OBL to require all entities of the public sector to report financial data; this power is focused primarily in the TBD and the GAD. - Resources, staffing, and capacity - EFSAD resources: qualified staff, adequate installations and equipment. - EFSAD staff consists of 17 persons: one Director (economist), one Deputy Director (economist), a technical advisory department consisting of three economists, four mathematicians, one chartered accountant, two MBAs, one industrial engineer (with economic studies), one computer engineer (with economic studies), and support services, including two secretaries and one messenger. - All technical staff have PCs connected to the ministry's network (and hence to the IFAD). Workforce is stable (minimum seven years in service), young, and competitively remunerated (relative to central administration pay scales). - TBD has assigned an officer to prepare the annual GFS for the IMF Yearbook; that person has been performing this function since 1989 and has a PC connected to the ministry's network (and therefore to the IFAD). - Shortages and training gaps: - Shortage of trained personnel for producing the GFS, particularly in the EFSAD. - Most staff lack formal training in Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM 1986) or GFSM 2001. - Only the TBD officer responsible for the IMF Yearbook participated in a course on GFSM 1986 in Washington, D.C. in 1996 and remains in contact with the IMF Statistics Department for methodological support. - Efficiency measures and evaluation - For EFSAD staff, efficiency is measured on the basis of the quality and timeliness of products, including release of monthly GFS figures, which must be available to the authorities no later than 15 days after the end of the month. - There has been no external expert evaluation of methodologies. - There is no regular evaluation (costing) of the resources used to compile the GFS, nor are they compared with other statistical programs. - Relevance and user engagement - No measures have been taken to ensure statistics meet the needs of external users (for example, establishing a committee of users). - No mechanisms established to meet new GFS requirements that might arise outside the MOF. - Approach remains reactive; most user queries relate to the Peace Accords and the Fiscal Pact. - Quality management, monitoring, and planning - MOF relies on IFAD to improve quality of primary information for “budgetary central government” (BCG). - Development plan targets IFAD expansion to the rest of the public sector with specific targets through end of the project (2007), by which time all decentralized and autonomous entities and the 332 municipalities are to be integrated into IFAD. - Lack of procedures and activities for examining quality and for publicly announcing intention to promote quality. - Apart from IFAD project, no plan or supplementary action (use of experts, studies, etc.) for systematic monitoring and evaluation of GFS quality. - Quality criteria relate only to the IFAD development plan. IFAD currently provides online information on BCG meeting timeliness and relevance criteria required for the GFS. - Planned IFAD expansion: from the beginning of 2006 IFAD should provide information on the same terms for all decentralized and autonomous entities; in 2007 extend to all local governments to ensure coverage of the entire public sector. *Source: _cr05208 - 0. Prerequisites of quality 0.1 Legal and institutional environment.* ### 1. Assurances of Integrity ### 1. Assurances of Integrity ### Professionalism - No law or provision guarantees the professional independence of the MOF. - Stability of technical staff working on the compilation of the GFS; minimum tenure of current staff is seven years. - The chief of the unit that prepares the GFS (the EFSAD) is of senior rank. - Selection of source data and methodology for compiling statistics on the BCG is based exclusively on technical criteria. - No plans for a transitional system parallel to the IFAD for obtaining information on other public sector components or for using statistical estimation methodologies. - Decisions about dissemination of GFS data are made on the basis of statistical considerations. - MOF proactive policy to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics: - Conducted courses for journalists on basic aspects of government finance and on financial information accessible through the MOF’s web portal. - Given journalists special access to the system. - Improved web dissemination by including footnotes with basic conceptual definitions. - The EFSAD responds to external user consultations (primarily telephone). ### Transparency - MOF web portal contains broad information on the BCG and links to related economic information (examples listed in source). - Website contains information on relevant legislation related to government financial administration. - MOF and BG authorities have access to the monthly GFS approximately one week before public disclosure on the website. - IGAS online information on execution of the budget of the budgetary central government is available simultaneously to authorities and the general public. - All statistical products published are clearly identified as produced by the responsible unit within the MOF. - In general, there is no advance announcement relating to aspects of compilation; substantive methodology, data source, and statistical technique changes have not been made since 1998. ### Ethical standards - Ethical standards for public servants stipulated in the Civil Service Act, the Regulations to the Civil Service Act, and the Law on Probity and Responsibility. - No specific ethical standards set for the statistical function. ### Methodological soundness Subsection: Concepts and definitions - Concepts and definitions used for the budgetary central government are generally consistent with recommendations of the GFSM 1986. - EFSAD prepares the GFS monthly based on existing budgetary classifications structured in 1997 on the basis of the GFSM 1986 and implemented as of 1998. - No set timetable to complete migration from GFSM 1986 to GFSM 2001. Subsection: Scope - The scope of the GFS disseminated monthly and annually by the EFSAD, and annually by the TBD, covers only the BCG. - Manual of Budgetary Classifications (Ministerial Order 233–2000) defines public sector components (as listed in source): - Central Administration: executive branch (Office of the President with 23 secretariats and support agencies, four social security funds, and 13 ministries), legislative branch (National Congress), judicial branch, and constitutionally agencies (Comptroller-General’s Office, Prosecutor-General’s Office, Constitutional Court, Public Ministry, Human Rights Ombudsman, Public Defender’s Office, Supreme Electoral Tribunal, General Property Registry). - Decentralized nonbusiness entities (18). - Autonomous nonbusiness entities (5). - Social security institutions (2). - Local governments (332 municipalities). - Municipal nonbusiness institutions and entities (1). - Municipal social security institutions and entities (1). - Municipal public corporations (7). - National public corporations (enterprises) (5). - Nonmonetary financial public institutions (2). - Monetary financial public institutions (3, including the Bank of Guatemala). - Sectorization per GFSM 1986: Central Government would consist of (a), (b), (c) and (d); General Government adds (e), (f) and (g); Nonfinancial Public Sector adds (h) and (i). - BCG includes the portion of the central administration covered by the General Budget of State Revenues and Expenditures (GBSRE) and corresponds to the scope of the monthly GFS compiled and disseminated by EFSAD. - IFAD does not include some agencies of the central administration: Legislative and Judicial Bodies, the Public Ministry, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, the Constitutional Court, the Human Rights Ombudsman, the Real Property Registry, and the Public Defender’s Office. - Official circular of October 8, 2004 listed entities to record budgetary execution online through IGAS in January 2005 (entities listed in source). - Entities preparing to record on line by IGAS as of January 2006 listed in source (includes USAC and ENCA which are not legally required to report to the MOF). - IGSS is running a client server version of the IFAD but is not included in the 2005/2006 program; this remains a matter of concern. - MOF targets for incorporating municipalities into the IFAD: 44 in January 2005, another 100 in December 2005, 100 more in December 2006, and the remaining 88 during 2007. Subsection: Classification/sectorization - GFS data are not provided separately for each level of government (Central Government, Local Governments, General Government, Nonfinancial Public Sector). - Classifications of revenues, expenditures, financing, and other debt are generally consistent with GFSM 1986. - Monthly and annual GFS prepared by the EFSAD are based directly on existing budget classifications that are structured according to GFSM 1986 but not fully consistent with GFSM 1986 concepts. - EFSAD prepares “Financial Situation of the Central Administration,” equivalent to the “Summary Table of Government Operations” of GFSM 1986, with memorandum items and additional disaggregated tables. Series began with data for 1995; monthly figures for the current year (monthly figures for past years are kept in the MOF database). - Annual GFS prepared by the TBD adhere more strictly to GFSM 1986 and use bridge tables between budgetary classifications and GFSM 1986; since 2003 TBD has been presenting GFS in the GFSM 2001 format and added a bridge table between GFSM 1986 and GFSM 2001, applying methodology based on IMF document “GFSM 2001, Supplementary Material: Classification of GFSM 1986 Data to the GFSM 2001 Framework,” October 2002; TBD applied this methodology in the Yearbook series back to the year 2000. TBD includes information on the debt. - Public debt statistics: - PCD publishes monthly on Fiscal Transparency page of MOF website. - External debt: information on loans, disbursements, and amortization on the last day of each month with a three-weeks lag; start period December 2002. - Domestic debt: detailed data monthly with a lag of three months; start period January 2002. - BG publishes monthly external debt data in U.S. dollars and domestic debt in local currency with a lag of two months and annual debt data series starting in 1980. - MOF is the official source of debt data. Subsection: Basis for recording - Market prices: - Most transactions in national currency (quetzals) and recorded at market prices prevailing when they occur. - Transactions in foreign currency (external debt disbursements and service) converted to national currency at the monthly or daily exchange rate used by the BG. BG uses buying or selling rate prevailing on the market depending on the operation. - Accrual basis: - Budgetary and accounting practice records transactions on a cash basis (or very close to cash basis for monthly expenditures), consistent with GFSM 1986. - The OBL requires budget accounting be on an accrual basis; transactions are automatically incorporated into accounts as they accrue through IFAD-IGAS, but budgetary execution stage is very close to cash recording. - Taxes: banks report collections to the MOF (GAD) on a daily basis; banks have five working days to deliver funds to National Treasury Directorate (DTN) accounts in the BG. Accrual and cash estimates are recorded simultaneously in IFAD-IGAS. - Expenditures: payment orders recorded by Financial Administration Units in IFAD-IGAS; policy to minimize floating debt leads to payment orders paid within two weeks at most. - No supplementary spending period after fiscal year end; annual closing rule fixes December 23 deadline for entities to enter amounts due in IFAD-IGAS. Unpaid amounts must be paid as a charge to following year’s budget, resulting in minimal monthly arrears. - Grossing/netting: - Transactions expressed in gross terms, except financing, per GFSM 1986. - Tax revenues recorded net of VAT refunds (to exporters). - Payments to banks for revenue collection services are deducted from proceeds delivered to NTD (two percent to STA for operations financing and payment of the banking commission) and recorded on a gross basis. - Corrective transactions (tax refunds or reimbursement of excess payments) are deducted from the original transaction at the time of occurrence. ### Accuracy and Reliability Subsection: Source data - For the BCG, the IFAD provides a high-quality information source; design and up-to-date technology make it comprehensive and timely. System receives periodic maintenance to improve quality and incorporate regulatory changes. - Banking system is key in tax collection and payments for central administration: - Tax revenues collected entirely through banks; payments received in cash or through current accounts taxpayers are required to maintain, minimizing accounts receivable. - Most payments made electronically through IFAD treasury module, integrated with the banking system. - Electronic system used for all payments except about 20 percent of the teaching staff payroll; this percentage is expected to be reduced close to zero in the near future due to policy to make electronic payment faster than nonelectronic payment. - Integration has made electronic banking reconciliation significantly faster, easier, and more reliable. - External debt: - PCD manages Debt Management and Analysis System (DMFAS) linked to IFAD (IGAS) with mutual feedback, reducing recording work and ensuring consistency between budgetary and accounting data. - Domestic public debt information managed by PCD is supplemented and reconciled weekly with BG information. - For public sector entities not operating through IFAD and DMFAS, information is scarce, late, and less comprehensive and reliable. - Source data classification alignment: - Current budget classification manual prepared in 1997 on basis of GFSM 1986; source data reasonably approximate international standards—particularly for entities included in IFAD and DMFAS. - Major problem: scanty coverage of source data. Unavailability of data from local governments and decentralized and autonomous entities (particularly social security institutions) is a serious problem; many such entities derive most financing from revenues included in the GBSRE. - Timeliness: - Thanks to IFAD, DMFAS, and close MOF–BG cooperation, data for BCG are available very promptly and on a daily basis. - With IFAD, transactions are recorded online and a major portion are available in what is very close to real time. *Source: _cr05208 - 1. Assurances of Integrity* ### 3.2 Assessment of source data ### _cr05208 - 3.2 Assessment of source data ### 3.2 Assessment of source data — Key findings - The IFAD, which began in 1998 with application to the 1997 OBL and the New Budgetary Classification Manual (both of which are still in force), has brought a high degree of accuracy and timeliness to the source data supplied by government entities through that state-of-the-art computerized system. - The IFAD system is operating in all central administration units in the GBSRE (see point 2.3.1). - The IFAD project will be completed in 2007. - Source data—including censuses, sample surveys and administrative records—are routinely assessed, e.g., for coverage, sample error, response error, and other nonsampling error; the results of the assessments are monitored and guide statistical processes. ### 3.3 Statistical techniques — Findings - For BCG, compilation procedures used by both the EFSAD and the TBD are sound. - Both units download information from the IFAD to Excel spreadsheets, establishing a system of interlinked derivation tables that allows for crosschecking to reduce processing errors. - There are no plans to use statistical sampling for preparing estimates of the operations of the local governments. - In the compilation of the national accounts, estimation techniques are used for annual estimation of local governments, with a sample of approximately 33 percent of the municipalities. - For estimating the operations of the nonfinancial public sector provided to Article IV missions of the IMF, the EFSAD estimates the local government subsector using nine representative municipalities. - Appropriate bridge tables have been constructed to facilitate adjustments to source data, especially for annual figures prepared by the TBD. - In the case of the EFSAD, derivation from the source data is more direct; any discrepancy in the adjusted source figures is implicit in the cash variation of the financing, which is a residual. ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs — Findings and issues - Monthly information prepared by the EFSAD using data from the IGAS is verified, supplemented and reconciled with intermediate information from the STA, the TBD, the PCD and the BG. Any existing differences are normally minor and related to lags in verifying accounting records. - Annual information the TBD prepares and sends to the IMF’s GFS department is prepared from definitive annual figures approved by the GAD and used for the end-of-year report the MOF must by law present to Congress. - Any statistical discrepancies are generally minor. However: - The cash variation in financing is obtained as a difference and there is no procedure for investigating possible errors or omissions (for example, by reconciling with changes in the funding account balances of BCG). - For external public debt, the PCD reconciles flows and stocks using DMFAS and the IGAS, and reconciles external debt with lending agencies and domestic debt with the BG; it also reconciles grants with donors. - There are clearly identified differences in external debt estimates of the central government reported by the MOF and those disseminated by the BG. Example: a debt recorded by the BG relating to a loan granted in 2002 by BBVA to “Celulosas de Guatemala S.A.” that was eventually assumed by the BG (US$131 million) is not included by the PCD in its external public debt record because it never carried a government guarantee. - Statistical information processed by the TBD and the EFSAD is based solely on transactional flows. There is no annual reconciliation between the figures prepared by the two units. - The MOF is the only agency compiling the GFS, but reconciliation is conducted weekly with the BG, particularly for debt figures (domestic and external). ### 3.5 Revision studies — Findings - Statistics are regularly documented, which would facilitate revision studies. - There is no practice of conducting periodic studies and statistical analyses of revisions. ### 4 Serviceability — Periodicity and timeliness - Statistics on BCG operations, and central government debt, are disseminated monthly. The periodicity follows the IMF data dissemination standards for the GDDS. - Monthly (and quarterly) statistics on BCG operations are disseminated within the following month, normally during the third week of that month. - Monthly (and annual) statistics for central government debt are disseminated within the following three months for internal debt, and with a three-week lag for external debt. Consequently, timeliness follows the IMF data dissemination standards for the GDDS. ### 4.2 Consistency — Findings - Statistics are consistent within the dataset: concepts, definitions, and classifications for producing subannual (monthly) and annual government finance statistics are the same; the sum of monthly statistics equals the annual statistics; there are no statistical discrepancies in the fiscal series. - Data from the accounting system (IGAS) allow reconciliation between flows and stocks of assets and liabilities. - Consistent time series are available from 1995 to the present, with monthly data from the year 2000. - When changes in source data are introduced, the historical series are reconstructed. Data for the years 1995 to 1997 were adjusted to the significant changes implied by the launch of the IFAD in 1998 and the simultaneous introduction of the OBL and the Budgetary Classifications Manual for the Guatemalan Public Sector, as of 1998. - The National Accounts and the Balance of Payments, as they relate to central government, are based on the same sources as the GFS, which ensures source consistency. - Differences remain because: national accounts use annual estimates for the local government subsector derived from a representative survey; sectorization differs across datasets giving rise to differences between debt stocks and flows; and there is some lack of consistency with some BOP and National Accounts concepts (Public Investment, Current Expenditure), especially in terms of coverage issues. ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice — Findings - Figures are revised weekly, monthly and annually according to stable cycles. - Principal revisions include: - monthly revisions for provisional tax returns from the banking system and the STA, with a lag of between one and five days, and the definitive information delivered by the GAD through the IGAS, with a lag of 8 working days; - annual revisions for figures delivered by the IGAS, with a lag of approximately one month. - Differences between provisional and definitive figures are not very significant. - The revision procedure is not formally established nor made public. - At dissemination, users are informed whenever data are preliminary. It is not explicitly stated that the data are definitive and the result of a revision (this is left implicit). - There are no regular studies and analyses of statistical revisions. ### 5 Accessibility — Data accessibility findings - The GFS are disseminated according to the budget classifications structured largely following GFSM 1986, but there are differences (including in net lending and the functional classification of expenditure). - Additional series and breakdowns are disseminated to meet specific users’ needs (e.g., social expenditure commitments in the peace accords). - The MOF web site provides additional addresses and links (Fiscal Transparency, IGAS, Budget, BG, STA) for further GFS-related information. - The MOF website publishes weekly tables on budgetary execution, four-monthly reports and the final annual accounts of the BCG, as the OBL requires. - Statistics are disseminated clearly but do not include commentary on current developments or charts/tables to facilitate analysis. - Statistics are disseminated via the website and can be downloaded in Excel and PDF formats. - For the most recent data (current and previous year), a significant quantity of budgetary and accounting information supplementary to the GFS is published at the MOF website. - Monthly GFS figures are disseminated punctually via the website (with a three-week lag). Legal requirements regarding four-monthly and end-of-year information for BCG are fully observed and posted timely. However, there is no preannounced dissemination schedule. - Except for necessary technical reviews by MOF and the BG, statistics are disseminated to all users at the same time. A special user category and training have been provided to help journalists access and understand web-posted information. - User requests for information and clarifications are handled via telephone. Requests for supplementary statistics must normally be submitted in writing to the MOF and are handled case-by-case. The availability of supplementary statistics is not publicly indicated except via links on the MOF portal. ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility and user assistance — Findings - Supplementary information is published in statistical tables only as memorandum items. Some basic conceptual definitions are provided. - No comprehensive documentation on methods and sources is published; metadata are not disseminated. - No general-use information (e.g., a brochure) about the GFS is available, nor has more specialized use information been prepared. - Assistance is normally provided to GFS users; the unit responsible for preparation is clearly indicated in web tables. There is no indication of individuals users can contact via e-mail, fax or telephone. - Assistance to users is not regularly monitored or reviewed for quality control purposes. - There are no catalogs of publications, documents or other services available to users, nor are statistical products and services offered for sale. ### Tabulated assessment (summary observations from the Data Quality Assessment Framework) - Concepts and definitions: generally consistent with GFSM 1986; no plans for migration to GFSM 2001. - Scope: GFS cover only budgetary central government. There are no GFS for central government (incl. Social Security), local governments, general government, or NFPS. - Classification/sectorization: GFS are not prepared in accordance with sectoral categories in GFSM 1986; breakdowns not fully in line with GFSM 1986. - Basis for recording: the average exchange rate is not used to convert from foreign currencies to domestic currency; tax revenues are recorded net of VAT refunds to exporters. - Resources and quality management: lack of training of GFS compilers; no staff training programs or explicit GFS improvement programs; no plans for tracking and assessing GFS quality; quality criteria depend solely on IFAD development plan. - Integrity and transparency: authorities have access to the GFS prior to release; there are no announcements regarding GFS compilation and processing methodologies. - Accuracy and reliability: some autonomous central government entities are not included in the IFAD; decentralized and autonomous entities are not included in the IFAD; sampling has not been proposed for estimating local governments; the change in cash balances is calculated as a residual and potential errors implicit in this calculation are not investigated. - Revision practice: no periodic revision studies and analyses of the GFS; no formally established revision and adjustment process announced to the public; preliminary data are explained but final (revised) data are not explicitly announced as the product of revisions. - Accessibility and metadata: dissemination not precisely in accordance with GFSM 1986; economic comments not included; no advance release calendars; availability of supplementary data is not announced; documentation on methods and sources is not disseminated. *Source: _cr05208 - 3.2 Assessment of source data* ### 5.3 Assistance to users ### 5.3 Assistance to users ### Main findings on assistance to users - Contact persons to whom users could direct questions are not identified. - There are no publication catalogues, or documents, etc., available to users, nor are statistical products offered for sale. ### 0. Prerequisites of quality — overview - Legal and institutional responsibilities for monetary statistics are specified across multiple laws: - Organic Law of the Bank of Guatemala (BG) (Decree No. 16–2002). - Law of Banks and Financial Institutions (Decree No. 19–2002). - Law of Financial Supervision (Decree No. 18–2002). - Organic Law of the National Institute of Statistics (Decree No. 3–85). - Additional regulations: Monetary Law (Decree 17–2002); Law of Private Financial Institutions (Decree 208); Law that establishes the Free Market for Foreign Exchange (Decree No. 94–2000); Law for Combating Laundering of Money and Foreign Assets (Decree 67–2001). ### 0.1 Legal and institutional environment - The Bank of Guatemala (BG) compiles and disseminates monetary statistics; BG Organic Law (Article 62) mandates dissemination on BG operations and those of banks and financial institutions. - The Law of Financial Supervision (Article 3) empowers the Superintendence of Banks (SB) to collect and disseminate statistics and to transmit aggregated information to the BG. ### 0.1.2 Data sharing and coordination - Adequate internal data-sharing arrangements exist within the BG via an automated Accounting and Economic Information System (AEIS). - Process flow: - BG’s Accounting Department (AD) posts daily transactions and manually inputs data into AEIS. - Financial Programming Section (FPS) of Economic Studies Department accesses AEIS electronically to develop central bank monetary accounts. - SB compiles aggregated reports from commercial banks and other financial institutions and transmits them to BG by electronic interface weekly and monthly. - FPS consolidates BG and SB data automatically using Economic and Financial Information System (EFIS) to produce: - Depository corporations (banking) survey (DCS). - (Partial) financial corporations survey. - Dissemination: internal and BG website weekly; full accounts in BG’s statistical bulletin (monthly, quarterly, annually) and other periodic BG reports. ### 0.1.3 Confidentiality and use for statistical purposes - Confidentiality safeguarded by: - Law of Banks and Financial Institutions (Article 63). - Organic Law of BG (Articles 27, 30, 42). - Regulations on Labor Relations between the Bank of Guatemala and its employees (Article 30-(b)). - Penalties for disclosure include immediate dismissal and/or civil and criminal liabilities. - Exceptions to confidentiality: provisions under the “anti-money laundering” law or as directed by a competent judge. - Electronic information systems protected by individual passwords and codes; data from commercial banks, development banks, savings and loans institutions are disseminated only in consolidated form. ### 0.1.4 Ensuring statistical reporting - Legal mandate: Law of Banks and Financial Institutions (Article 63) requires commercial banks to report to SB; SB may impose sanctions for noncompliance. - Occasional delays in weekly SB reports occur due to late submissions or need for data clarification; often resolved via informal FPS–SB contacts. - Other measures to encourage reporting: - SB provides technical support to declarative commercial banks on report forms. - BG maintains direct contact channels (FPS staff) with banks; BG may deal directly with banks for additional information or clarifications. ### 0.2 Resources - FPS staffing: - FPS has a total of six full-time staff, all exclusively devoted to compiling monetary statistics. - All staff have at least college degrees (economics, accounting, or statistics); three have graduate degrees. - Several staff currently pursuing local post-graduate studies and/or have participated in specialized monetary statistics courses. - Planned staffing: envisaged requirement for three additional staff in the coming year to improve coverage, classification, and sectorization. - Training and development: - FPS staff participated in IMF Monetary and Financial Statistics course and seminars by CAMC and CEMLA. - Article 38 of the BG law encourages staff to improve technical qualifications; BG has programs for financing staff development. - Technical resources: - All FPS staff have personal computers with standard software connected via AEIS. - Monetary statistics derivation and compilation performed using a new D–Base software developed by ITD. - FPS requests more “hands-on” ITD support for smooth operation of the new program. - Workspace, equipment, and environment described as more than adequate; offices upgraded constantly. - Financial resources: - Financial resources are broadly adequate to support current monetary statistics programs. - Budget for monetary and statistics reviewed in December each year within overall BG budget; required appropriations usually granted. ### 0.2.2 Efficiency measures - Programs subject to budget considerations and performance assessments. - FPS performance reports conducted every four months. - No specific process to measure resources used to compile monetary statistics relative to other macroeconomic data. - Annual programs designed by departments and submitted for BG management approval; monitored and reviewed periodically (at least annually). - Studies underway to address problems with the new D-Base program. ### 0.3 Relevance - BG lacks a proactive policy of regularly consulting users for feedback on quality and relevance of monetary statistics; input from general public is limited. - Feedback typically comes from responses to specific data requests. - Occasional seminars and conferences for university students and media provide indirect feedback; none evident for SB staff or other banking/financial institution staff. - Mechanisms to identify new data needs include regular visits by BG staff to other central banks and seminars by IMF, CAMC, CEMLA, PARIS 21. - FPS pursuing adoption of internationally accepted standards, demonstrated by efforts to conform to the new MFSM. ### 0.4 Other quality management - BG awareness of data quality importance reflected in participation decision in General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). - Quality-control procedures: - FPS and SB routinely verify reporting practices and conduct routine checks on raw data inputs. - BG balance sheet and financial statements externally audited every year by an internationally reputed firm. - Depository corporations and other supervised institutions required to publish annual balance sheets and income statements per SB regulations. - International consultants and IMF technical assistance missions contributed to improvements: missions in 1997, 1998, 2001, 2004; GDDS missions (2004); joint IMF-CAMC seminar in Costa Rica (2004); PARIS 21 workshop in Panama (2004). - Computer-based validation applied bank-by-bank; supervised institutions use a single plan of accounts facilitating reporting. - Monetary statistics production automated through a database with built-in checks and validation matrices at every stage. - Trade-offs and planning: - Recognition of trade-offs between accuracy, periodicity, and timeliness; evaluated against BG budget constraints and priorities. - Meetings regularly convened within BG to review data and identify emerging requirements. - FPS work program identifies priorities; planned improvements to coverage and sectorization estimated to require hiring three additional staff. ### 1. Integrity #### 1.1 Professionalism - No law explicitly specifying terms and conditions for professional independence of statistics production, but: - Monetary Board (MB) recognizes professionalism and independence as crucial for credibility. - Staff demonstrating high professionalism are officially recognized and financially rewarded. - BG Regulations on Labor Relations (Article 29) require staff to carry out responsibilities with due diligence. - FPS staff feel free from undue influence or pressure from upper management and other public sector agencies. - Hiring and advancement emphasize professional skills; staff encouraged to attend seminars and pursue postgraduate studies. - Choices of sources and statistical techniques are based on methodological considerations (e.g., MFSM). - Note: sectorization and coverage not completely in accordance with MFSM for commercial banks; plans for improvements developed under GDDS. - On erroneous interpretation and misuse: - No known cases of misuse; informal policy: department head responds to misinterpretations (telephone, e-mail, formal letter, or meeting). - BG includes explanatory footnotes in monthly publication (on website) and explanations in quarterly statistical bulletin (Report on Monetary Policy) on BG website. #### 1.2 Transparency - Terms and conditions of collection, processing, and dissemination are published in BG laws and Law of the Institute of National Statistics (NIS). - BG published a compendium, “Principal Laws of the Bank of Guatemala, 2002,” including Decree No. 16–2002, Decree No. 19–2002, Decree No. 18–2002. - Internal labor regulations covering confidentiality and professionalism are available on BG intranet and obtainable by the public upon request. - Internal governmental access prior to release: - No government official outside the BG (Monetary Board) has access to monetary data before public release. - Weekly monetary data release process: - Commercial bank data (previous Thursday) sent by e-mail to FPS on Friday. - Processed by FPS on Monday/Tuesday. - Sent to Monetary Board for approval on Wednesday. - Published on BG website and sent to various “third parties” on Thursday. - Weekly newspaper “Moneda” publishes the data on the following Tuesday. - These arrangements are generally known via published data in local newspapers. - Statistical products are clearly identified as BG publications on website and hard-copy reports, with department and individual names. - Advance notice of major changes: - No advance notice is given of changes in methodology, source data, or statistical techniques; changes are announced and explained at the time new data are published. *Source: _cr05208 - 5.3 Assistance to users (IMF PDF chapter/section).* ### 1.3 Ethical standards ### 1.3 Ethical standards ### Guidelines for staff behavior - Guidelines for staff behavior are well known to the BG staff by virtue of the Organic Law of the Bank of Guatemala (Article 37—Labor Relations). - Detailed internal directives include Regulations on Labor Relations between the Bank of Guatemala and Its Employees (MB Resolution JM-175–2002). - Article 29 of that Regulation deals with a code of conduct—ethical standards, professionalism, and rights and duties for all staff. - All new staff are informed of the existence of the employee code of conduct, and staff are periodically reminded to fully observe these rules and obligations. - These regulations are available from the BG internal website (intranet). ### Code of conduct, sanctions, and penalties - Articles 99–106 of the Regulations on Labor Relations specify the sanctions and penalties for noncompliance with the code of conduct. - Article 29 specifies ethical standards, professionalism, and rights and duties for all staff. - Article 30 (b) essentially deals with the guidelines for safeguarding the confidentiality expected of the staff. ### Confidentiality safeguards - Article 30 (b) provides guidelines for safeguarding the confidentiality expected of the staff. - Confidentiality and related obligations are established within the internal regulatory framework and communicated to new and existing staff. ### Availability and communication - The employee code of conduct and related regulations are (i) communicated to all new staff and (ii) periodically reiterated to existing staff. - The Regulations on Labor Relations and related directives are accessible via the BG intranet. *Source: _cr05208 - 1.3 Ethical standards* ### 3.5 Revision studies ### 3.5 Revision studies ### Routine practice for revision analysis - No mechanism for conducting a routine analysis of revisions to the data; no formal studies are available. - Investigations are conducted on an ad hoc basis to evaluate sources of problems (e.g., erroneous sectorization of institutional units). - Once sources are identified, procedures are put in place to prevent recurrence. - At times, data remain preliminary for a long period owing to lack of full reporting by commercial banks and financial institutions and/or when data are pending investigation. - Only when errors and omissions are corrected are the data revised and considered final for publication on the BG website. ### Periodicity and timeliness (Serviceability 4.1) - Periodicity: - Monetary statistics are available with a weekly periodicity, which meets and exceeds GDDS recommendations. - Timeliness: - Central bank aggregates are published on a weekly basis in the BG website, usually within one week (at the latest, two weeks) of the reference date (vis-à-vis GDDS recommendations of one to two months). - Broad money and credit aggregates are published weekly within one to two weeks of the end of the reference period (vis-à-vis one to three months for GDDS). - Reports (statistical bulletin) also published on a monthly, quarterly, and annual basis. ### Consistency (Serviceability 4.2) - Internal dataset consistency: - Monetary statistics are generally consistent within the dataset. - Central bank survey details credits/liabilities to commercial banks and other financial institutions in the CBS, and vice-versa for the ODC Survey. - Credits/liabilities of commercial banks and other depository corporations to each other within the DCS are netted out in interbank float and not shown separately. - Discrepancies arise due to lack of sectorization detail (particularly among commercial banks) and differences in timing of recording financial transactions. - Statistics for the entire financial corporations sector and the flow-of-funds accounts are not compiled. - Consistency over time: - Consistent time series are available over a period of at least eight years in the EFIS automated program maintained by the FPS. - The database contains weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual information. - Time series have been revised to reflect classification, coverage, or new information changes (example: series revised when Decree No. 94–2000 allowed the public to conduct transactions in foreign exchange; changes were indicated in corresponding tables). - Unusually large variations are explained in monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, and annual reports to the Monetary Board. - Consistency with other datasets: - Monetary statistics are not always reconcilable with other datasets (for example, MOF net credit to government) due to: - Insufficient DCS coverage of commercial banks and other depository corporations. - Lack of information on sectorization and residency in commercial bank reports. - Consistency checks between monetary and balance of payments statistics are not conducted regularly. - A weekly policy meeting between the BG and the MOF provides an opportunity to review consistency between monetary statistics and the GFS. ### Revision policy and practice (Serviceability 4.3) - Revision schedule: - No predetermined, well-established, and transparent revision cycle for the monetary accounts. - Revisions occur occasionally when errors are detected or when more accurate and timely data are available. - Documentation of revisions in monetary publications is inadequate apart from footnotes to tables. - Identification of preliminary data: - Preliminary data are clearly identified in monetary publications. - Revisions are indicated in tables at the time they are made. - Revised data are disseminated with the same level of detail as previously published data. - Public studies of revisions: - No routine studies and analyses are carried out on revisions to monetary data. - Apart from footnotes in tables and explanations in reports for the Monetary Board, users are not normally informed separately of causes or reasons for revisions. ### Accessibility (Serviceability 5) - Data presentation: - Statistical tables on the BG website present BG and commercial bank/ODC accounts in balance sheet format to facilitate interpretation. - The DCS (analytical account of BG and other depository corporations) is published weekly, monthly, and annually. - Main published categories include net foreign assets, domestic credit, money and quasi-money. - Charts and tables are included in quarterly, semi-annual, annual, and other special reports to the Monetary Board, which describe and analyze developments in monetary and credit policies. - No seasonally adjusted monetary data are published. - Dissemination media and formats: - BG disseminates daily, monthly, and quarterly monetary statistics through its website, in Spanish. - Hard copies of reports available on request. - Recent and historical series available on the website. - Weekly report on monetary statistics is regularly mailed to a list of third parties (press, Bankers Association, academe, international organizations). - Statistics are also disseminated at monthly press conferences of the president of the BG. - Release schedule and simultaneous access: - No preannounced advance release calendar is available to the general public; FPS follows a strict internal production and publication schedule. - After Monetary Board approval of weekly reports, monetary data are published and mailed to a select list on the following day on the BG website, providing simultaneous access to all users. - Nonpublished subaggregates: - Nonpublished (but nonconfidential) data are available upon request from the FPS, with approval of senior staff of the Economic Studies Department or management. - The general public is not informed of the availability of such information. - Metadata accessibility: - Documentation on concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques is available internally. - Metadata not yet made public, pending publication of Guatemala’s GDDS metadata on the IMF website (DSBB). - No brochures or comprehensive documentation adapted to different user needs beyond what is published on the BG website. - Assistance to users: - Contact points (telephone, fax, e-mail) are provided in publications on the BG website; prompt and knowledgeable service from the FPS is available. - Main instruments for informing the public are BG website publications (weekly, monthly, quarterly accounts) and special reports such as “Semi-annual Report on Monetary Policy,” “Annual Report of the Bank of Guatemala,” and the annual “Report on the National Economy.” - Nonconfidential internal publications and studies not on the BG website are available upon request. - No catalog of publications is available. ### Key assessment points from Table 4 (Data Quality Assessment Framework) - Revision studies: - Assessment indicates: No revisions studies are regularly conducted (only on ad hoc basis). - Metadata: - Metadata information only available internally, pending publication in IMF GDDS website. - Periodicity and timeliness: - Practice observed: weekly periodicity and timeliness generally meet GDDS recommendations. *Source: _cr05208 - 3.5 Revision studies* ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2.1 Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing are commensurate with statistical programs - Staffing levels - Balance of Payments Section (BPS): currently comprised of seven professionals, including the chief and deputy chief. - Foreign Exchange Statistics Section (FESS): comprised of a chief, deputy chief and 10 analysts, auxiliaries and administrative staff, as well as seven data processors hired from a private enterprise. - About five new specialized staff will be required for the adoption of the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual (BPM5) and in particular the implementation of surveys. - Staff qualifications and training - Professional staff required to have a bachelor’s degree or at least three years of university studies in economics or related fields. - BG in-house, one-year, post-graduate course; BG provides funding for postgraduate courses abroad. - Ninety percent of the professional staff of the Economic Studies Department already has already attended the BG post-graduate program. - 75 percent of the management staff has attended post-graduate courses abroad (US, Argentina, Chile, etc.). - Balance of payments staff (other than data entry) have professional qualifications in economics, banking, and accounting. - Training received from IMF, CEMLA, CAMC, and ECLAC. - In BPS, only one expert (also working for other sections) has participated in the Fund’s balance of payments statistics course. - In FESS, the chief, the deputy chief and one analyst have participated in balance of payments and external trade courses in CEMLA or ECLAC. - Staff turnover and tenure - Staff turnover in the BPS unit has been very high in recent years, causing loss of human capital from BG-funded postgraduate education. - The chief and the deputy chief of the BPS unit were appointed early in 2004. - FESS turnover is apparently lower; deputy in FESS has long tenure (since 1988). - Turnover at the analyst level is high (average tenure is less than two years). - Computing, facilities, and access - Computing facilities are appropriate; IT department provides technical support. - Hardware distributed adequately; software for compiling and analyzing statistical series is effective, periodically updated, and well adapted. - FESS database developed and administered by IT department; integrated computing network access to databases. - Data are backed up properly (particularly in FESS) for retrieval and updates. - All hardware has e-mail access; only chiefs and deputy chiefs have Internet access, remaining staff share a computer with internet access for the whole section. - Working space and equipment are adequate. - Financing and budgeting - An annual budget determines reasonable funding. - While mission was in Guatemala, BPS was preparing budget requirements for 2005, which may include resources to adopt BPM5 (estimated at five new staff). - Budgeted resources for implementing surveys are still being discussed in coordination with the National Program for Improving Economic Statistics (PRONAME). ### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources are implemented - Performance management and external reviews - BG has administrative controls for monitoring and evaluating staff performance and work processes; performance review every four months. - BG has sought outside expert assistance to evaluate statistical methodologies and compilation systems. - 1997: IMF multisector statistical mission evaluated compilation and registration practices and made recommendations for improving source data and adopting BPM5. - February 2004: international expert, financed by the BG, evaluated the quality of source data. - March 2004: IMF consultant conducted extensive evaluation of balance of payments compilation and registering procedures and proposed plans for improvements. - Constraints on implementation - Despite expert recommendations, poor data sources and lack of updated methodologies remain major shortcomings; few actions were undertaken over the last seven years to overcome them. - Causes cited: high staff turnover; insufficient delineation of responsibilities between compilation and analytical tasks; performance review process gives insufficient weight to compilation work. - These factors hampered build-up of professional experience needed to implement expert recommendations. - Recent institutional responses - Increasing awareness among authorities of importance of balance of payments statistics and need to implement BPM5 and conduct surveys in 2005. - A committee for implementing BPM5, comprised of chiefs and deputy chiefs involved with balance of payments compilation tasks, has been recently created. - A plan for improvement following expert recommendations has been prepared. ### 0.3 Relevance ### 0.3.1 The relevance and practical utility of existing statistics in meeting users’ needs are monitored - Monitoring and user contact - Formal and regular procedure for monitoring new economic developments from media reports to ensure statistics cover new events and emerging issues. - BPS staff regularly participate in statistical meetings and seminars organized by IMF, CAMC, CEMLA. - No specific survey or committee for balance of payments users; outside users’ needs have not been considered a priority. - Compiler agencies are not mandated to consult with users; no established consultation with a wider public. - BG staff makes informal contact with users. ### 0.4 Other quality management ### 0.4.1 Processes are in place to focus on quality - Human resources and training - BG management and staff aware that quality is essential and promote human resources development. - BG created a training center and an in-house, one year, post-graduate program to raise graduate student standards to an international level. - Courses for improving compilation practices and statistical techniques are not offered. - Performance review process does not give prominence to performance in statistical work. ### 0.4.2 Processes are in place to monitor the quality of the statistical program - External quality evaluations and internal reviews - BG has been hiring experts to evaluate quality and recommend improvement strategies (see 0.2.2). - No documentation exists to facilitate consistent quality review at stages of data collection, processing, and dissemination. - Basic reviews identify problems at some stages of data collection and processing. - New data are compared with previous periods; when large inconsistencies detected, respondents are contacted before corrections. - Foreign trade source data compiled by BG are reviewed manually to detect inconsistencies between physical volumes and transaction values. ### 0.4.3 Processes are in place to deal with quality considerations in planning the statistical program - Planning and user feedback - Need to improve data quality is considered in planning the work program. - Additional staffing needs for 2005 are considered to start implementing BPM5; decision on surveys in 2005 is being assessed within PRONAME. - Feedback from users on quality standards and new requirements have not been taken into account in planning. - No significant efforts to identify users’ needs for quarterly balance of payments estimates or international investment position data; these data are either not disseminated or not elaborated by the BG. ### 1. Assurances of Integrity ### 1.1 Professionalism #### 1.1.1 Statistics are produced on an impartial basis - Legal and institutional safeguards - Article 2 of the BG Organic Law establishes its autonomy; staff independent in performance of statistical duties. - Appointment and removal of heads of sections are transparent; emphasis on professional qualifications and performance. - Internal Work Regulations establish minimum recruitment requirements, including education and written aptitude tests. - Research and internal discussion - No internal workshops on balance of payments methodology; courses in specific accounts (e.g., direct investment) organized in the past. - BG does not have a policy for encouraging research; publications are sporadic. - Department of Economic Studies organized discussions until 2001; CAMC meetings on balance of payments organized until 1998 and later discontinued. #### 1.1.2 Choices of sources and statistical techniques as well as decisions about dissemination are informed solely by statistical considerations - Source selection and dissemination decisions - Choice of source data (e.g., ITRS reports vs. customs reports, MOF debt data) made by BPS staff based solely on statistical considerations. - Decisions to disseminate data, and timing and publication vehicles, are taken by the Monetary Board. #### 1.1.3 The appropriate statistical entity is entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics - Public communication and media relations - BG provides comments and clarification to media when erroneous interpretations occur; monitors media coverage through public relations department. - BG prepared to comment publicly and timely on erroneous interpretation or misuse. - BG has seldom needed to provide explanatory material when releasing balance of payments data. - Annual workshops for the media (“economics for non-economists”) are organized; lectures on the balance of payments are infrequent. ### 1.2 Transparency #### 1.2.1 The terms and conditions under which statistics are collected, processed, and disseminated are available to the public - Legal framework and public contact - NIS and BG laws specify terms and conditions for data collection, compilation, confidentiality of reporters’ data, and approval process for dissemination. - BG provides an e-mail address (webmaster@banguat.gob.gt) in hard copy and electronic publications for users to obtain more information and submit comments. #### 1.2.2 Internal governmental access to statistics prior to their release is publicly identified - Pre-release access - Monetary Board may review statistics prior to release. - Upon approval, selected users (government agencies and international organizations such as the IMF) may be given access to preliminary balance of payments statistics before public release. - The public is not made aware that certain government and international officials may access data prior to public release. #### 1.2.3 Products of statistical agencies/units are clearly identified as such - Attribution and identification - Paper and electronic publications of balance of payments data are clearly identified as BG products with the institution’s logo. - Most published tables include a footnote indicating the data source; BG does not request attribution when its statistics are reproduced. - Official government reports that include balance of payments information acknowledge the BG as the data source. - NIS disseminates balance of payments data identifying BG as the data source. - When BG includes data from other agencies on its webpage (e.g., CPI from NIS), the source is clearly identified. #### 1.2.4 Advance notice is given of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques - Notification practices - BG has not introduced major changes in balance of payments methodologies, source data, or statistical techniques in recent years. - Changes introduced to some components (e.g., foreign trade) were not announced in advance (announcement made at time of release). - Mission was informed BG has decided to provide users advance notice on planned conversion from BPM4 to BPM5. ### 1.3 Ethical standards - Internal regulations and enforcement - BG Internal Work Regulations provide broad ethical guidelines; distributed to new staff and available on BG internal website. - Regulations cover professionalism, data confidentiality, outside jobs, and acceptance of gifts. - Human Resource Department monitors work practices; violations penalized according to Chapter XV of the Internal Work Regulations. ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2.1 Concepts and definitions #### 2.1.1 The overall structure in terms of concepts and definitions follows internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices - Conceptual framework and BPM conformity - Overall framework is in broad conformity with BPM4; plans underway to transition to BPM5. - Current, capital, and financial accounts defined according to BPM4 guidelines; current account balance is, in principle, equal (with sign reversed) to net capital and financial account balance. - Financial account does not provide separate recording of transactions in assets and transactions in liabilities. - Double-entry system applied; net residual embedded in errors and omissions item. - Reserve assets defined by monetary authorities’ effective control and availability for use. - Residence and instrument classification issues - High reliance on ITRS reports and lack of clear residency definition in forms/reporting instructions may cause misclassification of resident/nonresident transactions. - Example: foreign direct investment transactions may not apply the 10 percent ownership rule in ITRS instructions (ITRS defines direct investment enterprise as a “foreign entity” that “aims to obtain a durable participation in a national enterprise or in a foreign enterprise resident in the national economy”). - BPM5 definition of direct investment specifies a “direct investor, who is resident in another economy [and] owns 10 percent or more of the ordinary shares or voting power ...” (BPM5, paragraph 362). - No reference in ITRS to period a transactor must be located/operating abroad/in the country to be considered resident/nonresident. - Example: compensation of employees treated as inflows/outflows for “salaries and remunerations that nationals/foreigners obtain abroad/in the country,” whereas BPM5 includes seasonal or other short-term workers (less than one year) and border workers who have centers of economic interest in their own economies (BPM5, paragraph 269). - ITRS entries do not permit easy identification of foreign currency deposits of residents in resident and nonresident financial institutions. - GTI reports use concept of nationality instead of residency, so data might misclassify nonresidents and residents. ### 2.2 Scope #### 2.2.1 The scope is broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices - Geographic and institutional coverage - In principle, balance of payments statistics cover all resident-nonresident transactions and the entire economic territory of Guatemala. - Most maquila transactions operating under two regimes are covered: inward processing (maquiladoras) and free zones. - Notable omissions and data limitations - Due to lack/limitations of data sources, some resident-nonresident transactions are not fully covered: 1. Undervaluation and overvaluation of merchandise trade. 2. Non-registered trade (mostly contraband). 3. Underreporting of services credits and debits: passenger transportation, construction, communication, financial and insurance services, and all other income (including reinvested profits of direct investment enterprises), services and financial transactions that may not be measured by the ITRS. 4. Underreporting or misreporting of financial account transactions: inward and outward direct and portfolio investment, and foreign assets and liabilities of banks and non-banks. - Illustrative evidence on trade valuation differences - Comparison with U.S. Census Bureau trade data (main Guatemalan trading partner representing approximately 50 percent of exports and 30 percent of imports) shows substantial differences: - According to U.S. trade statistics, there is a surplus in favor of Guatemala; Guatemalan authorities report a deficit with the U.S. - On average for 2002 and 2003, imports were overvalued in 17 percent of the cases and exports undervalued in 25 percent. - Possible reasons: internal tax evasion (enterprise income tax); different ways of registering imports (by country of origin vs. by seller country); valuation of maquila exports based on inter-company transfer prices in Guatemala vs. revaluation at market prices by U.S. customs authorities. - Customs administration improvements: integrated computerized system for customs operating 100 percent electronically; all payments done through banking system. - Customs department estimates there are 100 non-authorized post (pasos no autorizados) concentrated on Mexican border (smuggling of fuel) and Honduran border (smuggling of tobacco and alcohol). - ITRS and non-cash transactions - Transactions between residents and non-residents that do not involve cash payments (e.g., reinvested profits of direct investment enterprises, trade finance, incurrence of arrears, debt rescheduling, debt cancellation) are not included in the ITRS report. *Source: _cr05208 - 0.2 Resources* ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization ### Conformity with internationally accepted standards - Classification of balance of payments transactions conforms to the recommendations of BPM4. - Deviations from BPM5 are kept under review; most major differences are identified. - Main deviations in national publications: - Goods: - Not broken down in the five BPM5 categories (general merchandise, goods for processing, repairs on goods, goods procured in port, and nonmonetary gold). - Goods for processing (goods that enter Guatemala for processing and return to the country of origin without a change of ownership) are not identified separately within “goods for processing” (exports and imports) but included in net terms in services. - Services: - Transportation services are not disaggregated by means of transport (sea, air, other transport), although customs documents could provide separate data on ports of entry. - Travel services are not disaggregated by purpose of traveler (business or personal). - Payments of services for processing goods imported into Guatemala and, upon processing, exported to a third economy are not considered as “other trade related services.” - Current and capital transfers: - Transfers (especially grants) are not broken down into grants in cash and in kind, or by general government and other transfers (NGOs and religious organizations). - The ITRS considers all grants as current; the BPS unit makes a breakdown between current and capital applying a factor taken from the ITRS data when the exchange control system was fully operational. - Lack of identification of imports of grants in kind may result in underreporting of current transfers credits. - Financial account: - BPM5 recommends classifying portfolio investment and other investment transactions in four institutional sectors (monetary authorities, general government, banks, and other sectors). - Guatemala publishes according to BPM4, with a breakdown into three institutional sectors (non-financial public sector, monetary authorities such as BG, and private sector). - This breakdown does not identify transactions of banks (including their reserve assets) and transactions of public enterprises, which are attributed to the non-financial public sector instead of to other sectors. ### Basis for recording (valuation and timing) - Presentation and valuation: - Balance of payments is presented in U.S. dollars. - Transactions are valued at market prices when available. - Services are valued at the price paid for the services provided. - Goods are valued on an f.o.b. basis. - Goods for processing are valued at enterprise-reported prices and therefore may not always be at market prices, as recommended by BPM5. - Nontradable financial instruments as well as those generally traded on a regular basis are valued at nominal value, when the latter are recommended to be valued at market prices. - Reserve assets include value changes not attributed to transactions resulting from exchange rate variations; BPM5 recommends excluding all changes in reserve assets not attributable to transactions. - Exchange rates and timing: - When the actual date of the transaction is not available, an annual average exchange rate is used. - The exchange rate prevailing on the day of transaction is used for exports and imports of goods, and for transactions obtained through the ITRS reports. - Disbursement and debt service payments are converted into local currency using the exchange rate at the time of the transaction. - Recording basis: - Transactions are recorded on a cash basis. - Change of ownership is the principle governing recognition of transactions and their time of recording. - Merchandise trade statistics are recorded largely according to time of customs clearance, which may not coincide with change of ownership. - Services, income and financial transactions are recorded on a cash basis. - Loan drawings are entered at the time of actual disbursement; amortization and interest payments are recorded on a cash basis with no adjustment to accrual. ### Grossing/netting procedures - Procedures are broadly consistent with BPM5. - Most current account items are recorded on a gross basis, except goods for processing which are recorded on a net basis. - Financial account items are recorded mainly on a net basis, but there is no separation for assets and liabilities because ITRS forms do not allow this distinction. ### Source data: coverage, timeliness, and shortcomings - General: - No surveys are conducted; data sources are insufficient and not fully dependable to compile the balance of payments statistics. - ITRS is the main data source and is difficult to validate; reliability was substantially eroded after exchange control liberalization in 1994 and completed liberalization in 2001. - ITRS data collection and processing: - Coverage of reporting institutions is integrated with the register of entities operating in the foreign exchange market maintained by the bank supervision authorities. - All institutions operating in the foreign exchange market should provide BG information on inflows and outflows of exchange market operations between residents and nonresidents. - ITRS includes transactions of banks’ clients in cash and via banking accounts and transactions of banks’ own accounts. - Forms are sent daily by commercial banks and other institutions to the Foreign Exchange Negotiations Section (FENS) of the BG; after reconciling stock positions and flows, FENS transfers forms to the FESS of the BG for processing. - Current foreign exchange transactions reporting form was introduced in May 2001. - Important classification and sectorization shortcomings remain for capital and financial account transactions, e.g., the classification system does not allow distinction between foreign exchange inflows and outflows of the banking system related to foreign exchange deposits that residents maintain in the system. - Other ITRS shortcomings: - Forms are not easy to complete and not appropriate for computer processing (no coding system). - No use of reporting thresholds to facilitate collection of numerous small-volume transactions. - Reporting instructions do not specifically impede netting of balance of payments transactions (credit net of debits), common in transportation companies. - Staff have designed a new form fully adapted to BPM5 for current and financial transactions to be implemented in 2005; the new form was revised by STA-IMF staff and some changes must be incorporated following recommendations. - Administrative data sources that supplement ITRS: - TAS for international merchandise trade statistics based on customs recording procedures. - MOF for external public debt data. - BG for reserve assets of the BG. - GTI for travel credits and debits derived from entry/exit cards. - Specific data-source issues: - Data on reserve assets do not distinguish transactions from valuation changes, though this breakdown can be obtained from other central bank departments. - Data on foreign assets of the banking sector are not taken from their balance sheets; Superintendency of Banks can provide these. - No data are obtained from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for embassies abroad or foreign embassies in Guatemala, or from the MOF for official grants. - No surveys are conducted of embassies, NGOs, or international organizations. - Few actions are undertaken by the BPS to provide for new developments in sources; no periodic contacts with the business community to identify new developments. - Local media and the Internet are routinely monitored for information on international transactions. ### Assessment of source data quality and cross-checks - Approximations and classification: - Customs administrative records provide good approximations to BOP methodological requirements; the integrated computerized customs system (implemented in 2000, fully operational in 2004) allows appropriate adjustments. - Customs forms and codification do not allow appropriate identification of goods for processing, which are intermingled across export incentive regimes (inward processing maquilas under Decree Law 29/89 and free trade zones under Decree 65/89); this is a major hurdle to classify goods for processing according to BPM5, though some approximations might be possible by considering exports and imports included in Decree Law 29/89 as goods for processing. - The external debt database of the BG is not fully suitable for obtaining public external debt transactions and positions on an accrual basis as recommended by BPM5; MOF data provided to BG is recorded on a cash basis (due-for-payment basis). - The Public Sector Section of the MOF keeps a database on official grants that should be used to check ITRS information and improve the breakdown between current and capital transfers. - Timeliness: - Customs data have been available online one month after the end of the reference period since the integrated system was fully operational in 2004. - Hard-copy ITRS records are provided on the day following the reference period; weekly internal reports are prepared with a time lag of three days after the end of the reference period. - Public external debt data processed by the BG is monthly and received from the MOF with a time lag of one month after the end of the reference period. - BG’s reserve assets and liabilities reporting is timely. - Number of travelers from GTI is received monthly with a time lag of two months from the reference period. - BG employs follow-up procedures to ensure timely receipt of providers’ data (e.g., telephone calls to GTI). - Assessment and validation practices: - Customs data accuracy is generally good due to the computerized system. - Accuracy of ITRS information is partially assessed: opening and closing bank account values are reconciled with transactions by FENS before transfer to FESS. - Follow-up with reporting banks for unidentified or high-value transactions is sometimes done by telephone; visits to banks are very infrequent and no confirmation record is kept. - No systematic analysis of ITRS reports is conducted and no cross-checks for consistency with alternative data sources are routinely undertaken, creating a considerable risk of misclassification in capital and financial account. - Examples of potential inconsistencies: - ITRS estimates for 2003: - Net private capital inflows of about US$2.5 billion. - Net outflows of direct investment abroad of about US$2.1 billion. - These might be inconsistent with estimates of private sector external debt and direct investment abroad derived from other sources. - BIS data show: - Foreign banks claims on the non-bank sector in Guatemala decreased by US$108 million in 2003. - Liabilities vis-à-vis the non-bank sector (deposits of Guatemalans abroad) increased by about US$248 million. - BIS total-country movements noted: - Foreign banks’ claims (loans) to all Guatemalan sectors decreased US$199 million. - Liabilities vis-à-vis all sectors (deposits abroad) decreased US$197 million. - Cross-checking with the Superintendency of Banks is suggested, particularly to verify transactions of Guatemalan private banks with their off-shore platforms and to determine maturity classification (short-term versus medium- and long-term). - Other cross-checks and validations: - Data on migrants’ transfers from ITRS should be compared with the annual survey by the International Migration Office (IMO); figures are very close validating both sources. - Data on official grants is not cross-checked with OECD statistics or MOF data source on grants. - Accuracy of public sector external debt, international trade, travel, and other supplementary data sources is assessed but not systematically. - External debt DMFAS database administered by the MOF is routinely assessed. - Travel data from ITRS is checked with GTI data on number of tourists, applying a factor of length of stay and expenditure per day (factor estimated from a GTI survey implemented several years ago with JICA support). - Credited flows from ITRS and GTI are very similar; debits from GTI are about half of those obtained through the ITRS, despite evidence that GTI debits may be overestimated because nonresident Guatemalans are included in outward tourism flows. *Source: _cr05208 - 2.3 Classification/sectorization — https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/_cr05208.pdf* ### 3.3 Statistical techniques ### 3.3 Statistical techniques ### 3.3.1 Data compilation employs sound statistical techniques to deal with data sources - Trade compilation procedures minimize processing errors (coding, editing, tabulation), but these techniques are less used for compilation of the ITRS report and debt data. - Administrative-source data are often checked against similar reports from previous periods; anomalies are adjusted after consultation with the respondent. - Trade data derived from customs documents are sent by TAS to the BG electronically. The BG converts such data into its own software (built on ORACLE), which allows transformations according to the needs of the different BG units. - Public external debt flows from the MOF to the BG are submitted monthly by e-mail. - Data from the ITRS reports are received in hardcopy and processed manually. - Some automated controls exist to detect errors focusing on the use of the exchange rate. - Compilation procedures are not sufficiently stringent to avoid tabulation errors. - Unusual values are checked individually, but are not replaced or modified even when there is clear evidence of misreporting or misclassification. Note: - Sistema Automatizado de balanza cambiaria y comercio Exterior (SABCCE): Electronic system for foreign exchange balance and external trade ### 3.3.2 Other statistical procedures (data adjustments, transformations, statistical analysis) - Procedures to adjust data from various sources are in place to improve coverage, classification, valuation, and conformity with international standards, including: - Imports adjusted from c.i.f. to f.o.b. using information on insurance and freight from customs declarations. - Estimates on travel carried out by the GTI used to augment or verify data from the ITRS. - Export data of traditional products (coffee, sugar, bananas and oil) that represent approximately 20 percent of total trade are adjusted. - Mission comparison for 2002–03 found the gap between customs and BPS data is marginal; BPS staff agreed adjustments were warranted because customs automatization was not yet fully operational and using export association data was warranted. - No surveys on transportation enterprises or communications companies exist to check ITRS data. - Parallel databases that could verify ITRS data are not systematically used: - migrants’ transfers from OIM, - donors’ transfers from the MOF, - expenditures from Guatemalan embassies abroad and from foreign embassies in Guatemala from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. - Statistical procedures to incorporate unrecorded activities (including nonregistered border trade and illegal activities) are not carried out: - Periodic surveys at nonauthorized border points on goods are not carried out. - No adjustments of trade data are made using partner-country data (partners’ import data). - BPS believes customs data are relatively accurate but notes some adjustments may be warranted, especially when large and unexplained amounts of private capital flows reported by the ITRS are taken into account. ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate results and statistical outputs - 3.4.1 Intermediate results validation: - International Coffee Organization information is used to monitor coffee price and production trends. - Intermediate results are not always checked across a wide range of data sources; financial press used to verify high-value direct investment and other transactions. - Surveys are not implemented, limiting cross-checking; BPS plans to use the IMO survey on migrants’ transfers to check ITRS data. - 3.4.2 Assessment and investigation of statistical discrepancies: - Series behavior is assessed against related series, though not routinely or systematically (examples: freight earnings vs. trade value/volume; travel transactions vs. immigration traveler counts; financial flow data vs. external debt stock changes). - Other cross-checking is not carried out due to limited data sources (e.g., investment income payments/receipts of direct investment enterprises are not assessed against stocks; international investment position is not compiled). - The jump in migrants’ transfer from 2001 to 2002 (100 percent) was perhaps not adequately cross-checked and investigated; liberalization of the foreign exchange market might have been a major reason. - 3.4.3 Investigation of discrepancies and potential indicators of problems: - Staff monitor errors and omissions and cross-check entries across current, capital, and financial accounts. - ITRS private capital flow data are not adequately monitored; large unexplained inflows and outflows arise (see 3.2.1). - BIS locational international banking statistics are followed but not systematically compared with ITRS-reported private capital flows. - BG does not carry out bilateral comparisons with major trading partners or comparison with joint BIS-IMF-OECD-World Bank Statistics on External Debt; MOF does such cross-checking for debt data routinely. - Other current and financial account items with large differences are not investigated. ### 3.5 Revision studies - 3.5.1 Studies and analyses of revisions: - Direction and magnitude of revisions between preliminary and final data are evaluated. - No formal studies are conducted to keep a record of revisions. ### 4. Serviceability — 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - 4.1.1 Periodicity: - BG compiles annual balance of payments statistics with periodicity consistent with GDDS recommendations. - Quarterly balance of payments estimates prepared by the BG are redisseminated by the IMF in its statistical publications. - BPS’s plan envisages dissemination of quarterly data, though a specific date is not yet set. - 4.1.2 Timeliness: - BG disseminates annual balance of payments data within six months after the end of the reference period (consistent with GDDS recommendations). ### 4.2 Consistency - 4.2.1 Internal consistency: - Concepts and definitions for quarterly and annual balance of payments are the same, but classification in IMF publications (IFS and BOPSY) follows BPM5, differing from official annual presentation which conforms to BPM4. - Over the long run, net errors and omissions has been relatively stable; private financial flows have shown large and unexplained fluctuations. - International investment position is not prepared. - 4.2.2 Consistency over time: - A balance of payments series of seven years is published on the BG website. - No methodological notes identify or explain major breaks/discontinuities. Example: the 100 percent jump in migrants’ transfers between 2001 and 2002 was stressed but not explained or adjusted in commentary. - 4.2.3 Consistency with other datasets/frameworks: - Balance of payments trade in goods is reconciled with international merchandise trade data. - Balance of payments statistics are largely consistent with national accounts and monetary statistics (particularly BG reserve assets). - Foreign assets and liabilities of the financial sector are not taken from their balance sheets. - Balance of payments components comprising external debt are largely consistent with MOF debt stocks. ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - 4.3.1 Regularity and transparency of revisions: - Revision cycle is predetermined and reasonably stable year to year; announced when the Annual National Economic Study is released in June. - Source data, timing of revisions with related datasets, and timing of important economic policy documents are not explained. - No adequate documentation of revisions in publications or in the database accessible to users. - 4.3.2 Identification of preliminary and revised data: - Users are informed when data are preliminary at dissemination, but users are not informed when data are revised. - 4.3.3 Public studies/analyses of revisions: - Revisions are not measured, assessed, and explained in the balance of payments publication or database; analysis of differences between revised and preliminary data is not published for major aggregates. ### 5. Accessibility — 5.1 Data accessibility - 5.1.1 Presentation and clarity: - Balance of payments data accessible through BG website and hard copy publications. - BG disseminates balance of payments statistics only through one official summary table, accompanied by a more disaggregated two-page table. - A larger set of detailed tables with key concepts and definitions is not presented publicly; BG prepares detailed tables for internal use. - Charts on external sector (foreign exchange transactions, foreign trade, international reserves) presented with commentaries in annual reports. - 5.1.2 Dissemination media and formats: - Balance of payments data disseminated in two BG publications available on the BG website: - The Annual National Economic Study (presented in June) includes a summary table and a more disaggregated table with annual data for the past two years, three tables on exports and imports, and tables on exchange rate, foreign exchange balance, international reserves, and public debt, plus explanatory text and charts related to foreign exchange flows, reserve assets, and trade balance. - Economic Evaluation of the Year and Prospects for the Coming Year (Política Monetaria, Cambiaria y Crediticia: Evaluación a Noviembre y Propuesta para el Próximo Año) includes a summary balance of payments with preliminary data for the past year and estimated data for the current year, explanatory text, and charts on international reserves. - Quarterly Report on Monetary Policy includes a chapter on the external sector with comments and charts, but no balance of payments statistics. - 5.1.3 Release schedule: - No preannounced schedule for publication of balance of payments statistics. - A chart with a calendar of reports to the Monetary Board is included in the Economic Evaluation of 2003 (Politica Monetaria, Cambiaria y Crediticia: Evaluación a Noviembre 2003 y Propuesta para 2004); upon Monetary Board approval, most of these reports are published. - Organic Law of the BG, Article 62, establishes BG must publish at least once a year macroeconomic statistics including balance of payments statistics. - Users informally know the website is updated at the end of every month. - 5.1.4 Simultaneous availability: - Balance of payments statistics are made available to all users simultaneously. - Selected users (government agencies and international organizations) may have access to preliminary balance of payments statistics before public release. - 5.1.5 Non-routinely disseminated statistics: - Such statistics can be made available upon request; requests require management approval. - No public reference in BG publications on availability, terms, or conditions for nonpublished subaggregates. ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - 5.2.1 Documentation on methods and departures from standards: - No official metadata document with concepts, scope, classifications, basis for recording, data sources, and statistical techniques is available; departures from internationally accepted standards are not documented. - In context of upcoming GDDS participation, balance of payments metadata will soon be posted on the IMF website. - 5.2.2 Levels of detail for audiences: - No brochure for general users about balance of payments and external sector statistics. - No sources-and-methods document for analysts and users. ### 5.3 Assistance to users - 5.3.1 Contact points: - BG publications and website include a general note indicating the BG is the contact source and provide addresses, telephones, faxes, and the e-mail address webmaster@banguat.gob.gt. - No specific contact person within the balance of payments area is identified; inquiries are referred to the area specialist. - Assistance to users is not monitored through periodic user surveys or equivalent mechanisms. - 5.3.2 Catalogs and charges: - No catalog of publications and documents. - BG does not charge for any statistical products and services. ### Key statistics and factual points (verbatim) - approximately 20 percent (traditional products share of total trade) - 2002–03 (comparison period) - ITRS reports received in hardcopy; public external debt flows submitted monthly by e-mail - 100 percent (jump in migrants’ transfers between 2001 and 2002) - six months (timeliness for annual BOP dissemination) - seven years (length of balance of payments series published on BG website) - June (release month for Annual National Economic Study) - Article 62 (Organic Law requirement to publish macroeconomic statistics) - webmaster@banguat.gob.gt *Balance of Payments Statistics (excerpt).* ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### Source data (3.1) - No surveys implemented. - ITRS reports not fully dependable. ### Assessment of source data (3.2) - Accuracy of ITRS reports only partially assessed. - No consistency checks with related data sources. ### Statistical techniques (3.3) - Insufficient quality control in data compilation. ### Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs (3.4) - Data on private capital flows not adequately monitored or investigated. - Bilateral data reconciliation is not carried out. - Intermediate results are not validated against other information where applicable (implicit from lack of reconciliation and monitoring). ### Revision studies (3.5) - No revision studies are conducted, but revisions are evaluated. ### 4. Serviceability ### Periodicity and timeliness (4.1) - Periodicity and timeliness: X (flagged in original assessment). ### Consistency (4.2) - Errors and omissions relatively stable, but large and unexplained private capital flows. ### Revision policy and practice (4.3) - No revision studies are conducted, but revisions are carried out routinely. - Revisions follow routine practice but are not informed by formal revision studies. ### 5. Accessibility ### Data accessibility (5.1) - More detailed tables are needed by users. - Users are not informed of availability of balance of payments detailed data. ### Metadata accessibility (5.2) - No metadata prepared, except in the framework of GDDS participation. ### Assistance to users (5.3) - A specific contact person within the balance of payments unit is not identified. ### Appendix I — Selected indicators from the DATA QUALITY ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK (JULY 2003 FRAMEWORK) - The framework lists prerequisites of quality, methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility with detailed indicators (e.g., 0.1.1 through 5.3.2). - Relevant indicators referenced in the assessment: - 3.1.1–3.1.3 (Source data timeliness and coverage) - 3.2.1 (Routine assessment of source data) - 3.3.1–3.3.2 (Sound statistical techniques and procedures) - 3.4.1–3.4.3 (Validation of intermediate data and investigation of discrepancies) - 3.5.1 (Studies and analyses of revisions carried out routinely) ### Users’ Survey — summary of substantive findings (Users’ Survey — Guatemala City — October 27, 2004) - General user views: - Users were largely satisfied with recent efforts at disseminating macroeconomic statistics through the Internet, but a majority saw scope for substantial improvement. - Many were concerned about weaknesses in the national accounts and related uncertainties about the level and growth rates of GDP. - Users were uninformed about intense remedial efforts currently underway at the BG. - A majority pointed to poor timeliness of annual estimates and expressed a strong desire for quarterly national accounts and balance of payments estimates as well as improved methodology. - Demand for more detail and longer series, including for variables modified as a result of methodological change. - Majority expressed dissatisfaction with available metadata and lack of information on data revisions. - Users noted apprehension about providing data, possibly due to tax liability and security concerns. - Suggested involving industry associations and universities in official collection of statistics. - Concern about adverse effect of insufficient official data on prospective foreign investment and inconsistencies across data sources. ### Selected user-statistics (preserve values exactly as in source) - Which official statistics do you use regularly? - National Accounts (NA), e.g. GDP, GNP, Sectoral Value Added: 95% — 18 respondents - Prices: Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI): 100% — 19 respondents - Government Finance Statistics (GFS) or fiscal data: 79% — 15 respondents - Monetary and Financial Statistics (monetary): 78% — 14 respondents - Balance of Payments (BOP): 63% — 12 respondents - Other (1.6.1 Production indices): 42% — 8 respondents - Other (1.6.2 Labor market): 47% — 9 respondents - Other (1.6.3 Merchandise trade): 79% — 15 respondents - Other (1.6.4 International capital flows and foreign liquidity): 100% — 19 respondents - Other (1.6.5 External debt): 68% — 13 respondents - Other (1.6.6 International Investment Position): 42% — 8 respondents - Sources of official statistics cited by respondents: - National Statistics Office (INE): 84% — 16 respondents - Central Bank - Bank of Guatemala (BG): 100% — 19 respondents - Ministry of Public Finance (MFP): 74% — 14 respondents - Other government agencies or departments: 42% — 8 respondents - International and regional organizations (IMF, World Bank, IDB, ECLAC, UN, etc.): 84% — 16 respondents - News media: 26% — 5 respondents - Do you refer to descriptions of sources and methods? - Yes: 63% — 12 respondents - No: 32% — 6 respondents - No opinion: 5% - Purposes for use (selected): - Analysis of current developments for short-term decision making: 58% — 11 respondents - Analysis of trends for longer-term policy formulation: 47% — 9 respondents - Model building and forecasting: 37% — 7 respondents - Economic research: 68% — 13 respondents - Comparison with economic developments in other countries: 53% — 10 respondents - General economic background: 74% — 14 respondents - Market research: 37% — 7 respondents ### Quality aspects — selected tabulated responses (preserve values exactly) - Coverage and detail — Satisfaction (percent / respondents where given) - National Accounts — Yes: 47% — 9; No: 37% — 7; No opinion: 16% — 3 (19 respondents) - CPI/PPI — Yes: 79% — 15; No: 11% — 2; No opinion: 11% — 2 (19 respondents) - GFS — Yes: 47% — 9; No: 21% — 4; No opinion: 32% — 6 (19 respondents) - Monetary — Yes: 68% — 13; No: 11% — 2; No opinion: 21% — 4 (19 respondents) - Balance of Payments — Yes: 63% — 12; No: 21% — 4; No opinion: 16% — 3 (19 respondents) - Available detail — Satisfaction - National Accounts — Yes: 47% — 9; No: 37% — 7; No opinion: 16% — 3 (19 respondents) - CPI/PPI — Yes: 79% — 15; No: 11% — 2; No opinion: 11% — 2 (19 respondents) - GFS — Yes: 42% — 8; No: 32% — 6; No opinion: 26% — 5 (19 respondents) - Monetary — Yes: 68% — 13; No: 11% — 2; No opinion: 21% — 4 (19 respondents) - Balance of Payments — Yes: 68% — 13; No: 16% — 3; No opinion: 16% — 3 (19 respondents) - Data collection surveys adequacy - National Accounts — Yes: 47% — 9; No: 16% — 3; No opinion: 37% — 7 (19 respondents) - CPI/PPI — Yes: 53% — 10; No: 5% — 1; No opinion: 42% — 8 (19 respondents) - GFS — Yes: 37% — 7; No: 16% — 3; No opinion: 47% — 9 (19 respondents) - Monetary — Yes: 47% — 9; No: 5% — 1; No opinion: 47% — 9 (19 respondents) - Balance of Payments — Yes: 47% — 9; No: 5% — 1; No opinion: 47% — 9 (19 respondents) - Consistency over time - National Accounts — Yes: 79% — 15; No: 16% — 3; No opinion: 5% — 1 (19 respondents) - CPI/PPI — Yes: 68% — 13; No: 21% — 4; No opinion: 11% — 2 (19 respondents) - GFS — Yes: 58% — 11; No: 26% — 5; No opinion: 16% — 3 (19 respondents) - Monetary — Yes: 79% — 15; No: 0% — 0; No opinion: 21% — 4 (19 respondents) - Balance of Payments — Yes: 74% — 14; No: 11% — 2; No opinion: 16% — 3 (19 respondents) - Periodicity and timeliness — Satisfaction with frequency of compilation - National Accounts — Yes: 25% — 5; No: 55% — 11; No opinion: 20% — 4 (20 respondents) - CPI/PPI — Yes: 70% — 14; No: 10% — 2; No opinion: 20% — 4 (20 respondents) - GFS — Yes: 40% — 8; No: 30% — 6; No opinion: 30% — 6 (20 respondents) - Monetary — Yes: 65% — 13; No: 10% — 2; No opinion: 25% — 5 (20 respondents) - Balance of Payments — (table continues in source) *Source: _cr05208 - 3. Accuracy and reliability* ### 1.1 Yes ### _cr05208 - 1.1 Yes ### Timeliness of dissemination (6.2) - Respondents answering question: 19 (100%) - 6.2.1 National Accounts - Yes: 19 respondents; 100% (but earlier block also shows 35% / 7 / 35% / 47% — source lists multiple grouped entries) - Later block: Yes 32% / 6 / 32% / 35%; No 58% / 11 / 58% / 65%; No opinion 11% / 2 / 11% - 6.2.2 CPI/PPI - Yes: 63% / 12 / 63% / 71%; No: 26% / 5 / 26% / 29%; No opinion: 11% / 2 / 11% - 6.2.3 GFS - Yes: 53% / 10 / 53% / 63%; No: 32% / 6 / 32% / 38%; No opinion: 16% / 3 / 16% - 6.2.4 Monetary - Yes: 63% / 12 / 63% / 75%; No: 21% / 4 / 21% / 25%; No opinion: 16% / 3 / 16% - 6.2.5 Balance of Payments - Yes: 26% / 5 / 26% / 31%; No: 58% / 11 / 58% / 69%; No opinion: 16% / 3 / 16% ### Other dissemination practices (7) - Respondents answering question: 19 (100%) - 7.1 Existence of publicly disseminated release-calendar - 7.1.1 National Accounts: Yes 5% / 1 / 5% / 5%; No 95% / 18 / 95% / 95% - 7.1.2 CPI/PPI: Yes 16% / 3 / 16% / 16%; No 84% / 16 / 84% / 84% - 7.1.3 GFS: Yes 5% / 1 / 5% / 5%; No 95% / 18 / 95% / 95% - 7.1.4 Monetary: Yes 16% / 3 / 16% / 17%; No 79% / 15 / 79% / 83%; No opinion 5% / 1 / 5% - 7.1.5 Balance of Payments: Yes 5% / 1 / 5% / 6%; No 89% / 17 / 89% / 94%; No opinion 5% / 1 / 5% - 7.2 Are statistics released on pre-announced dates (if calendar exists) - 7.2.1 National Accounts: Yes 5% / 1 / 5% / 17%; No 26% / 5 / 26% / 83%; No opinion 68% / 13 / 68% - 7.2.2 CPI/PPI: Yes 21% / 4 / 21% / 50%; No 21% / 4 / 21% / 50%; No opinion 58% / 11 / 58% - 7.2.3 GFS: Yes 5% / 1 / 5% / 17%; No 26% / 5 / 26% / 83%; No opinion 68% / 13 / 68% - 7.2.4 Monetary: Yes 16% / 3 / 16% / 43%; No 21% / 4 / 21% / 57%; No opinion 63% / 12 / 63% - 7.2.5 Balance of Payments: Yes 5% / 1 / 5% / 17%; No 26% / 5 / 26% / 83%; No opinion 68% / 13 / 68% - 7.3 Information about revisions - 7.3.1 National Accounts: Yes 42% / 8 / 42% / 50%; No 42% / 8 / 42% / 50%; No opinion 16% / 3 / 16% - 7.3.2 CPI/PPI: Yes 58% / 11 / 58% / 73%; No 21% / 4 / 21% / 27%; No opinion 21% / 4 / 21% - 7.3.3 GFS: Yes 58% / 11 / 58% / 73%; No 21% / 4 / 21% / 27%; No opinion 21% / 4 / 21% - 7.3.4 Monetary: Yes 47% / 9 / 47% / 69%; No 21% / 4 / 21% / 31%; No opinion 32% / 6 / 32% - 7.3.5 Balance of Payments: Yes 37% / 7 / 37% / 50%; No 37% / 7 / 37% / 50%; No opinion 26% / 5 / 26% - 7.4 Adequacy of policy and procedure for revisions - 7.4.1 National Accounts: Yes 21% / 4 / 21% / 29%; No 53% / 10 / 53% / 71%; No opinion 26% / 5 / 26% - 7.4.2 CPI/PPI: Yes 47% / 9 / 47% / 64%; No 26% / 5 / 26% / 36%; No opinion 26% / 5 / 26% - 7.4.3 GFS: Yes 37% / 7 / 37% / 54%; No 32% / 6 / 32% / 46%; No opinion 32% / 6 / 32% - 7.4.4 Monetary: Yes 42% / 8 / 42% / 67%; No 21% / 4 / 21% / 33%; No opinion 37% / 7 / 37% - 7.4.5 Balance of Payments: Yes 32% / 6 / 32% / 50%; No 32% / 6 / 32% / 50%; No opinion 37% / 7 / 37% ### Accessibility (8) - Respondents answering question: 19 (100%) - 8.1 Can you easily access official statistics? - 8.1.1 National Accounts: Yes 79% / 15 / 79% / 83%; No 16% / 3 / 16% / 17%; No opinion 5% / 1 / 5% - 8.1.2 CPI/PPI: Yes 74% / 14 / 74% / 78%; No 21% / 4 / 21% / 22%; No opinion 6% / 1 / 5% - 8.1.3 GFS: Yes 47% / 9 / 47% / 60%; No 32% / 6 / 32% / 40%; No opinion 21% / 4 / 21% - 8.1.4 Monetary: Yes 79% / 15 / 79% / 94%; No 5% / 1 / 5% / 6%; No opinion 16% / 3 / 16% - 8.1.5 Balance of Payments: Yes 79% / 15 / 79% / 88%; No 11% / 2 / 11% / 12%; No opinion 11% / 2 / 11% - 8.2 Access to methodological information (explanatory notes, methodological descriptions, references) - 8.2.1 National Accounts: Yes 26% / 5 / 26% / 28%; No 68% / 13 / 68% / 72%; No opinion 5% / 1 / 5% - 8.2.2 CPI/PPI: Yes 32% / 6 / 32% / 33%; No 63% / 12 / 63% / 67%; No opinion 5% / 1 / 5% - 8.2.3 GFS: Yes 21% / 4 / 21% / 25%; No 63% / 12 / 63% / 75%; No opinion 16% / 3 / 16% - 8.2.4 Monetary: Yes 37% / 7 / 37% / 41%; No 53% / 10 / 53% / 59%; No opinion 11% / 2 / 11% - 8.2.5 Balance of Payments: Yes 26% / 5 / 26% / 29%; No 63% / 12 / 63% / 71%; No opinion 11% / 2 / 11% - 8.3 Clarity and level of methodological information - Yes 16% / 3 / 16% - No 68% / 13 / 68% - No opinion 16% / 3 / 16% - 8.4 Formats used to access official statistics - Hard copy: 45 respondents (100%) - Official releases 79% / 15 / 33% - Press releases 21% / 4 / 9% - Special requests 32% / 6 / 13% - Official policy papers 53% / 10 / 22% - Private sector summaries and analyses 26% / 5 / 11% - Newspapers 26% / 5 / 11% - Electronic form: 42 respondents (100%) - Official website 95% / 18 / 43% - Official database and other (such as CD-ROM) 37% / 7 / 17% - Private websites 16% / 3 / 7% - News media websites with official policy papers 16% / 3 / 7% - E-mail 47% / 9 / 21% - Other 11% / 2 / 5% - 8.5 Presentation of data (format, clarity of text, tables, graphics) meets needs - 8.5.1 National Accounts: Yes 74% / 14 / 74% / 78%; No 21% / 4 / 21% / 22%; No opinion 5% / 1 / 5% - 8.5.2 CPI/PPI: Yes 79% / 15 / 79% / 83%; No 16% / 3 / 16% / 17%; No opinion 5% / 1 / 5% - 8.5.3 GFS: Yes 68% / 13 / 68% / 81%; No 16% / 3 / 16% / 19%; No opinion 16% / 3 / 16% - 8.5.4 Monetary: Yes 74% / 14 / 74% / 88%; No 11% / 2 / 11% / 13%; No opinion 16% / 3 / 16% - 8.5.5 Balance of Payments: Yes 74% / 14 / 74% / 88%; No 11% / 2 / 11% / 13%; No opinion 16% / 3 / 16% - 8.6 User support accessibility, timeliness, competence - 8.6.1 National Accounts: Yes 16% / 3 / 16% / 19%; No 68% / 13 / 68% / 81%; No opinion 16% / 3 / 16% - 8.6.2 CPI/PPI: Yes 26% / 5 / 26% / 29%; No 63% / 12 / 63% / 71%; No opinion 11% / 2 / 11% - 8.6.3 GFS: Yes 21% / 4 / 21% / 25%; No 63% / 12 / 63% / 75%; No opinion 16% / 3 / 16% - 8.6.4 Monetary: Yes 32% / 6 / 32% / 38%; No 53% / 10 / 53% / 63%; No opinion 16% / 3 / 16% - 8.6.5 Balance of Payments: Yes 26% / 5 / 26% / 31%; No 58% / 11 / 58% / 69%; No opinion 16% / 3 / 16% ### Overall assessment (9) - Respondents answering question: 19 (100%) - 9.1 Is underlying methodology sound and appropriate? - 9.1.1 National Accounts: Yes 26% / 5 / 26% / 33%; No 53% / 10 / 53% / 67%; No opinion 21% / 4 / 21% - 9.1.2 CPI/PPI: Yes 68% / 13 / 68% / 87%; No 11% / 2 / 11% / 13%; No opinion 21% / 4 / 21% - 9.1.3 GFS: Yes 26% / 5 / 26% / 45%; No 32% / 6 / 32% / 55%; No opinion 42% / 8 / 42% - 9.1.4 Monetary: Yes 68% / 13 / 68% / 100%; No 0% / 0 / 0% / 0%; No opinion 32% / 6 / 32% - 9.1.5 Balance of Payments: Yes 32% / 6 / 32% / 46%; No 37% / 7 / 37% / 54%; No opinion 32% / 6 / 32% - 9.2 Are official statistics reliable? - 9.2.1 National Accounts: Yes 58% / 11 / 58% / 65%; No 32% / 6 / 32% / 35%; No opinion 11% / 2 / 11% - 9.2.2 CPI/PPI: Yes 74% / 14 / 74% / 82%; No 16% / 3 / 16% / 18%; No opinion 11% / 2 / 11% - 9.2.3 GFS: Yes 58% / 11 / 58% / 85%; No 11% / 2 / 11% / 15%; No opinion 32% / 6 / 32% - 9.2.4 Monetary: Yes 89% / 17 / 89% / 100%; No 0% / 0 / 0% / 0%; No opinion 11% / 2 / 11% - 9.2.5 Balance of Payments: Yes 68% / 13 / 68% / 76%; No 21% / 4 / 21% / 24%; No opinion 11% / 2 / 11% - 9.3 Comparison with other countries in the region (average rating 1/; weighting: Better=1; Same=0; Worse=-1) - 9.3.1 National Accounts: Average rating -0.47; Better 5% / 1 / 5% / 6%; Same 37% / 7 / 37% / 41%; Worse 47% / 9 / 47% / 53%; No opinion 11% / 2 / 11% - 9.3.2 CPI/PPI: Average rating -0.18; Better 11% / 2 / 11% / 12%; Same 53% / 10 / 53% / 59%; Worse 26% / 5 / 26% / 29%; No opinion 11% / 2 / 11% - 9.3.3 GFS: Average rating -0.40; Better 5% / 1 / 5% / 7%; Same 37% / 7 / 37% / 47%; Worse 37% / 7 / 37% / 47%; No opinion 21% / 4 / 21% - 9.3.4 Monetary: Average rating -0.06; Better 11% / 2 / 11% / 13%; Same 58% / 11 / 58% / 69%; Worse 16% / 3 / 16% / 19%; No opinion 16% / 3 / 16% - 9.3.5 Balance of Payments: Average rating -0.31; Better 5% / 1 / 5% / 6%; Same 47% / 9 / 47% / 56%; Worse 32% / 6 / 32% / 38%; No opinion 16% / 3 / 16% - 9.4 Overall quality rating (scale 1-5; average rating reported) - 9.4.1 National Accounts: Average rating 3.00 - 1: 5% / 1 / 5% / 6%; 2: 16% / 3 / 16% / 19%; 3: 42% / 8 / 42% / 50%; 4: 16% / 3 / 16% / 19%; 5: 5% / 1 / 5% / 6%; No opinion 17% / 3 / 16% - 9.4.2 CPI/PPI: Average rating 3.63 - 2: 11% / 2 / 11% / 13%; 3: 16% / 3 / 16% / 19%; 4: 53% / 10 / 53% / 63%; 5: 5% / 1 / 5% / 6%; No opinion 17% / 3 / 16% - 9.4.3 GFS: Average rating 3.00 - 2: 21% / 4 / 21% / 27%; 3: 37% / 7 / 37% / 47%; 4: 21% / 4 / 21% / 27%; No opinion 21% / 4 / 21% - 9.4.4 Monetary: Average rating 3.67 - 3: 37% / 7 / 37% / 47%; 4: 32% / 6 / 32% / 40%; 5: 11% / 2 / 11% / 13%; No opinion 21% / 4 / 21% - 9.4.5 Balance of Payments: Average rating 3.40 - 2: 11% / 2 / 11% / 13%; 3: 37% / 7 / 37% / 47%; 4: 21% / 4 / 21% / 27%; 5: 11% / 2 / 11% / 13%; No opinion 21% / 4 / 21% *Source: User survey and IMF staff estimates.* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/_cr05208.pdf_