## 1. Data Quality Assessment Framework July 2003—Summary Results ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [1. Data Quality Assessment Framework July 2003—Summary Results](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/_cr0530.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/_cr0530.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/_cr0530.pdf.json) --- ### Overall assessment (Section I) - Three statistical agencies assessed: Central Statistical Office (CSO) for national accounts and the consumer price index (CPI); Bank of Zambia (BOZ) for monetary and balance of payments (BOP) statistics; Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MOFNP) for government finance statistics (GFS). - Legal framework: "largely sufficient except for national accounts and BOP statistics"; Statistics Act allows Minister of MOFNP to disclose individual information to the Department of Agriculture (potential confidentiality undermining). - Mandates and practice: - CSO: clear mandate for national accounts and CPI but "has unofficially delegated BOP compilation and dissemination to BOZ"; prolonged resource limitations and donor dependence; "under-resourced." - BOZ: compiles and disseminates BOP statistics "without official authorization, risking source-data collection." - MOFNP: GFS dissemination "not according to GFSM 1986 or GFSM 2001"; only budgetary-format fiscal data publicly available. - Coordination and data sharing: "not adequately in place; coordination is limited." - Methodologies: "broadly follow international standards except for GFS and national accounts"; transition to GFSM 2001 recommended. - Dissemination: accessibility and serviceability improved but "more extensive dissemination needed." - GDDS participation: Zambia participated since "November 2001"; most data follow GDDS recommendations for periodicity and timeliness. Exception: external sector public and publicly guaranteed external debt data are semi-annual rather than quarterly. ### Main conclusions from DQAF-based assessment (Section I, paragraph 3–9) - Prerequisites of quality and assurances of integrity — overall impediments: - "lack of effective coordination among statistical agencies and users"; "no systematic program to assess users’ needs"; "limited practices informing public of internal government access to statistics before wider dissemination." - CSO specifics: - Legal framework: "adequate for statistical operations"; confidentiality safeguarding could be improved in provincial transfers. - Operational independence: "adequate in practice"; resource limitations and uncertain funding "seriously affect annual work program implementation", national accounts resources at a "risky and critical level." - Staff independence: staff decide sources and techniques "based solely on statistical considerations." - Technical assistance: receiving assistance in national accounts and GFS. - MOFNP specifics: - Institutional environment: "adequate for domestic budgetary operations but not for consolidated central government and general government operations." - Data coordination: "needs strengthening to capture significant extrabudgetary operations." - Resources: "adequate for current operations but may limit GFSM 2001 implementation"; training in GFS methodology needed. - Dissemination: "decisions on choice and mode of dissemination could be strengthened." - PEMFA reforms: identified in Public Sector Reform Strategy (PSRS) and expected to contribute to GFSM 2001 implementation. - BOZ specifics: - Legal/institutional: sufficient for monetary statistics; "needs clearer authorization for compiling BOP statistics." - Staff/IT: resources for BOP compilation and IT need strengthening. - Quality monitoring: "based on Computation and Compilation Guidelines." - Management: "strong professionalism and strategic planning"; cross-agency coordination could be strengthened. - Methodological soundness: - Broad adherence for national accounts, CPI, and monetary statistics; deviations exist in concepts, definitions, scope, and sectorization for most datasets. - Fiscal and BOP data: "serious deficiencies in scope and classification (e.g., reinvestment of earnings and trade credits missing in BOP scope)." - CSO began phased implementation of 1993 SNA; BOZ began implementation of MFSM. - PCF project provided BOZ a sound basis for large enterprise surveys. - GFSM 1986 not adopted; fiscal data lack appropriate sectorization. - Accuracy and reliability: - Adequate for monetary statistics; weak for other datasets. - National accounts source data "seriously out of date"; statistical techniques weak. - GFS source data limited to domestic budgetary central government operations. - BOP techniques rely on limited surveys and out-of-date estimation methods. - Assessment/validation of source data not systematic except for monetary statistics and GFS. - Statistical discrepancies not investigated for national accounts and CPI. - Serviceability: - Dissemination of five datasets meets GDDS recommendations for periodicity and timeliness. - Data consistency within and across datasets largely met; GFS sectoral consistency limited to domestic budgetary central government operations. - Monetary statistics have discrepancies in interbank positions. - Revisions: "normally undertaken in a regular, timely manner though schedule not publicized"; revision studies not publicized. - Accessibility: - "Generally weak for macroeconomic statistics and metadata." - Dissemination media/formats inadequate for national accounts and BOP; users rely on MOFNP publications for more timely series. - Lack of MOFNP website and limited hardcopy dissemination constrain users outside Lusaka. - National agencies do not disseminate metadata but hyperlink to IMF GDDS website. - "No advance release calendar in place." - CPI release: "same time to all users through monthly press conferences"; other datasets do not follow this practice. - Limited contact information for users for most datasets. - Agencies are conscious to improve accessibility. ### Summary assessment table highlights (Table 1) - Key to symbols: O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO = Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not Observed; NA = Not Applicable. - Selected Dimension 0 and 1 entries (preserved exactly): - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: National Accounts = LNO; CPI = LO; GFS = LO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LO. - 0.2 Resources: National Accounts = LNO; CPI = LO; GFS = LO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LO. - 0.3 Relevance: National Accounts = LO; CPI = LO; GFS = LO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LO. - 0.4 Other quality management: National Accounts = LO; CPI = LO; GFS = LO; Monetary = O; BOP = O. - 1.1 Professionalism: National Accounts = LO; CPI = LO; GFS = O; Monetary = O; BOP = O. - 1.2 Transparency: National Accounts = LO; CPI = LO; GFS = LO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LO. - 1.3 Ethical standards: all five datasets = O. - Selected Dimension 2 entries: - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: National Accounts = LO; CPI = O; GFS = LO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LO. - 2.2 Scope: National Accounts = LO; CPI = LO; GFS = LNO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LNO. - 2.3 Classification/sectorization: National Accounts = LO; CPI = O; GFS = LNO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LNO. - 2.4 Basis for recording: National Accounts = LO; CPI = LO; GFS = LO; Monetary = LO; BOP = O. - Selected Dimension 3 entries: - 3.1 Source data: National Accounts = LNO; CPI = LNO; GFS = LNO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LNO. - 3.2 Assessment of source data: National Accounts = LO; CPI = LO; GFS = LO; Monetary = O; BOP = O. - 3.3 Statistical techniques: National Accounts = LNO; CPI = LO; GFS = O; Monetary = O; BOP = LNO. - 3.4 Assessment and validation: National Accounts = LNO; CPI = LNO; GFS = O; Monetary = O; BOP = LO. - 3.5 Revision studies: National Accounts = LNO; CPI = LO; GFS = LNO; Monetary = O; BOP = LNO. - Selected Dimension 4 and 5 entries: - 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness: all five datasets = O. - 4.2 Consistency: National Accounts = O; CPI = O; GFS = LO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LO. - 4.3 Revision policy and practice: National Accounts = LO; CPI = LO; GFS = LNO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LO. - 5.1 Data accessibility: National Accounts = LNO; CPI = LO; GFS = LNO; Monetary = LNO; BOP = LNO. - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: National Accounts = O; CPI = LNO; GFS = LO; Monetary = O; BOP = LO. - 5.3 Assistance to users: National Accounts = LO; CPI = LO; GFS = LNO; Monetary = O; BOP = LO. ### Assessment by agency and dataset (Section II — overview) - DQAF July 2003 assessed five macroeconomic datasets: national accounts, CPI, GFS, monetary, and BOP statistics. - For each producing agency, Dimensions “0” and “1” (prerequisites and assurances of integrity) presented in Tables 2a–c. - For each dataset, Dimensions “2” to “5” (methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, accessibility) presented in Tables 3a–e. ### Key cross-agency findings (selected) - Coordination: "No formalized program for data-sharing and coordination. Technical committees are non-functional." - Confidentiality risks: CSO provincial transfers lack secure electronic transmission; questionnaires disposal procedures weak. - Resource constraints: CSO staff declines from "over 1,300 in year 2000 to its current around 650"; National Accounts Branch has "five staff" and "the number of professional staff represents less than half of what the NAB requires." - Dissemination gaps: MOFNP fiscal data "only disseminated in a hard copy format"; MOFNP "does not have a website." - GDDS metadata: agencies hyperlink to IMF GDDS but do not widely publish metadata themselves. ### Staff recommendations and priority actions (selected) - Cross-cutting: - Improve coordination and data-sharing among data producing agencies, for example "through the creation of a national statistics committee." - "Conduct exercises to assess the relevance of data to meet the needs of users, including user surveys." - "Disseminate the terms and conditions under which the statistics are compiled and inform users how they could access these terms and conditions; provide information on internal access of data before general release." - "Conduct and disseminate studies on the revisions to the statistics; publicize revision policy." - "Improve dissemination practices: disseminate advance release calendars for all datasets; establish a practice of simultaneous release of data by using an embargo period." - Monetary statistics specific: - "Allocate IT expertise to the Economics Department so that AREMOS database can be implemented smoothly." - "Publish the depository corporations survey, by the inclusion of the Building Societies and the National Savings and Credit Bank, as well as all banks in liquidation, and reduce the discrepancies in the interbank positions." - "Reclassify local governments as money holders and apply stricter rules to determine the residency on the basis of center of economic interest." - "Expand the reconciliation exercise for monetary and fiscal data to include fiscal data on extrabudgetary central government operations." - Balance of payments specific: - "Clarify and make more official the arrangement that gives the BOZ the mandate to compile balance of payments and the obligation to disseminate data." - "Increase staff resources to develop new methodologies and strengthen data sources." - "Disseminate balance of payments data more extensively and regularly, e.g., including quarterly balance of payments data in the Quarterly Financial and Statistical Review and on the BOZ website." - "Initiate an annual enterprise survey based on the groundwork laid by the PCF project; initiate smaller quarterly enterprise surveys of only the largest enterprises." - "Initiate efforts to revitalize the reporting of external transactions settled through banks, the International Transactions Reporting System." ### National Accounts — core findings (methodological soundness, accuracy, serviceability, accessibility) - Concepts and framework: - "The accounts are compiled broadly according to the concepts and definitions of the 1968 SNA, instead of the 1993 SNA." - CSO implementing 1993 SNA "phased" (Phase I and parts of Phase II); remaining Phases II–VI to follow after revising benchmarks and institutional sector accounts. - Source data and techniques: - "Data collection program is not comprehensive and the source data are outdated." - Establishment/enterprise data "not collected on a regular basis" and Household Budget Survey (HBS) data "are 10 years old" (1994 HBS used until 2002/03 HBS available). - Base year outdated: "The base year is outdated." - Nonobserved activities "not covered." - "Supply and use framework not used"; CSO compiled SUT for 1994–1999 but not used. - Accuracy and validation: - "Extent of the statistical discrepancy in the production accounts is not known." - "Revision studies are not conducted in a systematic manner." - Periodicity and timeliness: - "The periodicity and timeliness is in line with the GDDS recommendations." - "Consistent series are available from 1994." - "The last national accounts publication was produced in 2001." - Accessibility and metadata: - CSO provides sources and methods in "four volumes"; limited metadata in National Accounts Bulletin; CSO website links to GDDS metadata. - "Advance release calendar not available." ### Consumer Price Index (CPI) — core findings - Concepts and scope: - "Concepts and definitions used are consistent with the 1993 SNA and the draft CPI Manual." - CPI covers all household types; "Three separate CPIs are compiled for urban low income, urban high income, and rural households." - Classification closely follows COICOP; CSO plans to implement COICOP in full. - Source data and techniques: - "Detail of source data for the CPI weights is good and the price collection program comprehensive." - Weaknesses: "price data relies only on the primary collection, scientific sampling methods are not used and new goods are not added to the index." - HBS frequency "not sufficient"; HBS 2002/2003 to be used to revise weights (new weights by "September 2004" per action timeline). - CPI software limited; planned software updates "before December 2004." - Assessment, revisions, dissemination: - "The monthly CPI is published during the last week of the reference month, thereby meeting GDDS recommendations." - "CPI data are final as released. No formal studies are prepared and published except for those on the general HBS results." - Dissemination: press release, monthly bulletin The Monthly, and internet; "Information is released simultaneously to all users" at press conference; "However, there is no advance release calendar." - Metadata: comprehensive manual exists but "is not available to the public." ### Government Finance Statistics (GFS) — core findings - Concepts and scope: - "Concepts and definitions of fiscal data for Zambia are loosely based on the recommendations of GFSM 1986." - "There are no plans at present in the MOFNP to migrate the basis of compilation to the new GFS standards based on the GFSM 2001." (CSO planning migration.) - Scope: "disseminated fiscal data covers the domestic revenue, expenditure and financing of all budgetary central government units and excludes foreign grants received and the expenditure of such grants, extrabudgetary units and local authorities." - Source data and techniques: - Source data "ample for domestic budgetary central government" but "lack foreign grants and related expenditure." - "No automated procedures are in place to facilitate the monitoring of the accuracy of data reported by ZRA or any line ministry." - Fiscal compilation "based on administrative records with no need to employ any statistical techniques." - Validation and revisions: - "Fiscal data from the MOFNP and monetary statistics from the BOZ are compared and reconciled for domestic budgetary operations only." - "No revisions studies are conducted by the MOFNP and the disseminated data are not revised." - Dissemination and accessibility: - Fiscal data "presented in the monthly, semi-annual, and annual reports of the MOFNP" in budget layout that "hampers international comparability." - "MOFNP does not disseminate metadata"; metadata only on DSBB via CSO hyperlink. - Contact information limited; general contact point in Macroeconomic Indicators. ### Monetary statistics — core findings - Concepts and scope: - "Concepts and definitions are broadly consistent with the MFSM recommendations" but monetary survey still follows older guidelines. - Scope excludes Building Societies, the National Savings and Credit Bank, and "all banks in liquidation." - Local governments "are not classified as money holders." - Residency classification uses legal status/physical address rather than center of economic interest. - Source data and validation: - Source data based on BOZ trial balance and commercial bank returns; "routinely reviewed and assessed." - Reconciliation practices: major aggregates validated against settlement system and government securities; discrepancies investigated. - Timeliness and revisions: - Periodicity and timeliness "meet the GDDS recommendations." - "Revisions are carried out whenever necessary. This policy is not made public." Last three months labeled "Prel." in Statistics Fortnightly but not consistently. - Accessibility: - BOZ publishes monetary data in multiple publications and on website but "does not disseminate an advance release calendar"; data are not made available to all users at the same time; more detailed data available on request but not publicized. ### Balance of payments (BOP) — core findings - Concepts and scope: - Framework "broadly consistent with BPM5" with exceptions: direct investment definition, residency criteria (physical addresses used), and construction residency. - Scope gaps: "reinvestment of earnings, trade credits, and changes in export proceeds held abroad by mining enterprises and nontraditional exporters" missing. - Numerous misclassifications (e.g., interest received on foreign assets of commercial banks misclassified). - Source data and techniques: - Source data "generally adequate in timeliness, but deficient in coverage"; PCF project produced comprehensive data but "no follow-up survey has been conducted." - "Outdated estimation methods have remained in use unchanged for many years." - Validation: "Except for copper exports, few intermediate results are validated against other information." - Revisions and dissemination: - "No studies or analysis of revisions are undertaken. Investigations are limited to big revisions." - Data dissemination: "Data are disseminated in an analytic presentation only with a brief commentary, but without supporting tables"; data "are not released to all users simultaneously and there is no advance release calendar." Balance of payments methodology booklet "not disseminated to the public." ### Key methodological shortcomings (summary) - Use of legal status and physical address criteria rather than center of economic interest for residency classification (monetary and BOP). - Incomplete institutional coverage in the monetary survey (exclusion of Building Societies, the National Savings and Credit Bank, banks in liquidation). - Failure to classify local governments as money holders. - Securities in monetary statistics valued at cost; accrued interest not added to underlying instruments. - Repos not separately identified in BOZ trial balance; simple rules to distinguish resident vs nonresident deposits. - Significant BOP scope gaps: reinvestment of earnings, trade credits, export proceeds held abroad. - Misclassification of numerous BOP transactions. - Outdated BOP estimation methods and limited validation of intermediate results (except copper exports). - Revision policy not publicized; preliminary/revised data not clearly identified. - Lack of advance release calendar and absence of simultaneous release/embargo practice. - Limited dissemination of BOP data and methodological booklet. ### Users’ survey (May 18–June 3, 2004) — selected results - Survey administration: questionnaire sent to sample of 70 users; "the questionnaire was completed by 20 users" (initial summary). Table showed "Total Sent 62 and Total Received 25." - Which official statistics are used regularly (Number of Responses): - National accounts (NA) 14; Prices 21; GFS 13; Monetary statistics 17; BOP 13. - Where users obtain official statistics: - Official press releases/publications 20; Official website 11; Hard copy publications 19. - Use of methodology documentation: Yes 17; No 4. - Purposes for using official statistics: "Analysis of current developments for short-term decision making 20"; others include trend analysis, econometric modelling, research. - Users’ average overall quality ratings (scale 1–5): - NA = 2.6; Prices = 3.7; GFS = 3.5; Monetary = 4.0; BOP = 3.3. - User concerns and requests (selected): - Desire for more timely national accounts (quarterly) and fiscal data. - Need for advance release calendar and wider electronic dissemination (MOFNP lacks website). - Users critical of national accounts and BOP methodology and source-data deterioration. - Monetary statistics and CPI rated relatively well; national accounts rated relatively poorly. ### Selected legal and operational details (preserved quotations) - "The responsibility to compile government finance statistics (GFS) in accordance with international standards is not explicitly assigned in any law." - "The CSO has assumed the responsibility to compile GFS, but has not disseminated any GFS. Instead, the MOFNP disseminates fiscal data." - "The last national accounts publication was produced in 2001." - "Consistent series are available from 1994." - "Zambian fiscal data cover only domestic budgetary central government operations, and data are obtained from administrative public records as a by-product of the budget system." - Section 9 and penalties: "Section 12 establishes penalties for noncompliance: failure to comply is an offence and liable to a fine not exceeding 1,500 penalty units or to imprisonment for a period not exceeding six months." "A penalty unit is equivalent to 5 kwachas." ### Priority capacity-building and dissemination actions (aggregated) - Establish national statistics committee to improve coordination and data-sharing. - Implement regular user-needs assessments and user surveys. - Publish terms and conditions for data collection, internal access practices, and revision policies; introduce advance release calendars and embargo/simultaneous release practices. - For CSO national accounts: - Update business register (last updated "1998"); conduct regular enterprise/establishment surveys; rebase and update base year (current base year "1994"). - Implement supply and use framework and systematic revision studies. - For CPI: - Use 2002/2003 HBS to revise weights by "September 2004"; update CPI software by "December 2004"; implement scientific sampling and add new goods between revisions. - For MOFNP GFS: - Adopt GFSM 2001 migration path; broaden scope to consolidated central and general government including foreign grants, extrabudgetary units, and local authorities; automate reconciliation with ZRA and line ministries; publish metadata. - For BOZ monetary and BOP: - Clarify legal mandate for BOZ to compile BOP; increase BOP unit staffing; implement AREMOS database; publish depository corporations survey including excluded institutions; reclassify local governments as money holders; apply residency criteria based on center of economic interest; initiate enterprise surveys (annual and quarterly) based on PCF groundwork; revitalize ITRS reporting. *IMF staff report: Data module of the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) for Zambia, Data Quality Assessment Framework July 2003 — Summary Results.* ### 1. Data Quality Assessment Framework July 2003—Summary Results...............................8 ### _cr0530 - 1. Data Quality Assessment Framework July 2003—Summary Results...............................8 ### Overall assessment (Section I) - Three statistical agencies assessed: Central Statistical Office (CSO) for national accounts and the consumer price index (CPI); Bank of Zambia (BOZ) for monetary and balance of payments (BOP) statistics; Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MOFNP) for government finance statistics (GFS). - Legal framework: largely sufficient except for national accounts and BOP statistics; Statistics Act allows Minister of MOFNP to disclose individual information to the Department of Agriculture (potential confidentiality undermining). - Mandates and practice: - CSO: clear mandate for national accounts and CPI but has unofficially delegated BOP compilation and dissemination to BOZ; prolonged resource limitations and donor dependence; under-resourced. - BOZ: compiles and disseminates BOP statistics without official authorization, risking source-data collection. - MOFNP: GFS dissemination not according to GFSM 1986 or GFSM 2001; only budgetary-format fiscal data publicly available. - Coordination and data sharing: not adequately in place; coordination is limited. - Methodologies: broadly follow international standards except for GFS and national accounts; transition to GFSM 2001 would facilitate policy analysis. - Dissemination: accessibility and serviceability improved but more extensive dissemination needed for broader user groups. - GDDS participation: Zambia has participated since November 2001; most data follow GDDS recommendations for periodicity and timeliness. Exception: external sector public and publicly guaranteed external debt data are semi-annual rather than quarterly. ### Main conclusions from DQAF-based assessment (Section I, paragraph 3–9) - Prerequisites of quality and assurances of integrity: - Overall impediments: lack of effective coordination among statistical agencies and users; no systematic program to assess users’ needs; limited practices informing public of internal government access to statistics before wider dissemination. - CSO: - Legal framework: adequate for statistical operations with provisions for confidentiality and assurance of responses, but safeguarding confidentiality could be improved in provincial transfers. - Operational independence: adequate in practice; faces resource limitations and uncertain funding that seriously affect annual work program implementation, with national accounts resources at a "risky and critical level." - Staff independence: staff decide sources and techniques based solely on statistical considerations. - Technical assistance: receiving assistance in national accounts and GFS. - MOFNP: - Institutional environment: adequate for domestic budgetary operations but not for consolidated central government and general government operations. - Data coordination: needs strengthening to capture significant extrabudgetary operations. - Resources: adequate for current operations but may limit GFSM 2001 implementation; training in GFS methodology needed. - Dissemination: decisions on choice and mode of dissemination could be strengthened. - Public Expenditure Management reforms (PEMFA): identified in Public Sector Reform Strategy (PSRS) and expected to contribute to GFSM 2001 implementation. - BOZ: - Legal/institutional: sufficient for monetary statistics; needs clearer authorization for compiling BOP statistics. - Staff/IT: resources for BOP compilation and IT need strengthening. - Quality monitoring: based on Computation and Compilation Guidelines. - Management: strong professionalism and strategic planning; cross-agency coordination could be strengthened. - Methodological soundness: - Broad adherence to international standards for national accounts, CPI, and monetary statistics. - Deviations exist in concepts, definitions, scope, and sectorization for most datasets. - Fiscal and BOP data have serious deficiencies in scope and classification (e.g., reinvestment of earnings and trade credits missing in BOP scope). - CSO began phased implementation of 1993 SNA; BOZ began implementation of MFSM. - Private Capital Flows (PCF) project provided BOZ a sound basis for large enterprise surveys. - GFSM 1986 not adopted; fiscal data lack appropriate sectorization. - Accuracy and reliability: - Adequate for monetary statistics; weak for other datasets. - Source data generally not comprehensive except for monetary statistics. - National accounts source data seriously out of date; statistical techniques need strengthening. - GFS source data limited to domestic budgetary central government operations. - Lack of coverage reduces accuracy of national accounts and BOP statistics. - BOP techniques rely on limited surveys and out-of-date estimation methods. - Assessment and validation of source data not systematic and regular except for monetary statistics and GFS. - Statistical discrepancies not investigated for national accounts and CPI. - Most datasets have timely source data. - Serviceability: - Dissemination of five datasets meets GDDS recommendations for periodicity and timeliness. - Data consistency within and across datasets largely met; GFS sectoral consistency limited to domestic budgetary central government operations. - Monetary statistics have discrepancies in interbank positions. - Revisions: normally undertaken in a regular, timely manner though schedule not publicized; revision studies not publicized. - Accessibility: - Generally weak for macroeconomic statistics and metadata. - Dissemination media/formats inadequate for national accounts and BOP; users rely on MOFNP publications for more timely series. - Lack of MOFNP website and limited hardcopy dissemination constrain users outside Lusaka. - National agencies do not disseminate metadata but hyperlink to IMF GDDS website. - No advance release calendar in place. - CPI release: same time to all users through monthly press conferences; other datasets do not follow this practice. - Limited contact information for users for most datasets. - Agencies are conscious to improve accessibility. ### Summary assessment table highlights (Table 1 — key symbol interpretations preserved) - Key to symbols: O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO = Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not Observed; NA = Not Applicable. - Dimension 0 (Prerequisites of quality) and 1 (Assurances of integrity) summary by dataset (selected entries preserved exactly): - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: National Accounts = LNO; CPI = LO; GFS = LO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LO. - 0.2 Resources: National Accounts = LNO; CPI = LO; GFS = LO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LO. - 0.3 Relevance: National Accounts = LO; CPI = LO; GFS = LO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LO. - 0.4 Other quality management: National Accounts = LO; CPI = LO; GFS = LO; Monetary = O; BOP = O. - 1.1 Professionalism: National Accounts = LO; CPI = LO; GFS = O; Monetary = O; BOP = O. - 1.2 Transparency: National Accounts = LO; CPI = LO; GFS = LO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LO. - 1.3 Ethical standards: all five datasets = O. - Dimension 2 (Methodological soundness) selected entries: - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: National Accounts = LO; CPI = O; GFS = LO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LO. - 2.2 Scope: National Accounts = LO; CPI = LO; GFS = LNO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LNO. - 2.3 Classification/sectorization: National Accounts = LO; CPI = O; GFS = LNO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LNO. - 2.4 Basis for recording: National Accounts = LO; CPI = LO; GFS = LO; Monetary = LO; BOP = O. - Dimension 3 (Accuracy and reliability) selected entries: - 3.1 Source data: National Accounts = LNO; CPI = LNO; GFS = LNO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LNO. - 3.2 Assessment of source data: National Accounts = LO; CPI = LO; GFS = LO; Monetary = O; BOP = O. - 3.3 Statistical techniques: National Accounts = LNO; CPI = LO; GFS = O; Monetary = O; BOP = LNO. - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs: National Accounts = LNO; CPI = LNO; GFS = O; Monetary = O; BOP = LO. - 3.5 Revision studies: National Accounts = LNO; CPI = LO; GFS = LNO; Monetary = O; BOP = LNO. - Dimension 4 (Serviceability) selected entries: - 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness: all five datasets = O. - 4.2 Consistency: National Accounts = O; CPI = O; GFS = LO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LO. - 4.3 Revision policy and practice: National Accounts = LO; CPI = LO; GFS = LNO; Monetary = LO; BOP = LO. - Dimension 5 (Accessibility) selected entries: - 5.1 Data accessibility: National Accounts = LNO; CPI = LO; GFS = LNO; Monetary = LNO; BOP = LNO. - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: National Accounts = O; CPI = LNO; GFS = LO; Monetary = O; BOP = LO. - 5.3 Assistance to users: National Accounts = LO; CPI = LO; GFS = LNO; Monetary = O; BOP = LO. ### Assessment by agency and dataset (Section II — overview) - The DQAF July 2003 was used to assess five macroeconomic datasets: national accounts, CPI, GFS, monetary, and BOP statistics. - For each producing agency, Dimensions “0” and “1” (prerequisites and assurances of integrity) are presented in Tables 2a–c. - For each dataset, Dimensions “2” to “5” (methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, accessibility) are presented in Tables 3a–e. *IMF staff report: Data module of the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) for Zambia, Data Quality Assessment Framework July 2003 — Summary Results.* ### 0. Prerequisites of quality ### 0. Prerequisites of quality ### Assurances of integrity — Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MOFNP) / Central Statistical Office (CSO) - "The responsibility to compile government finance statistics (GFS) in accordance with international standards is not explicitly assigned in any law." - "The CSO has assumed the responsibility to compile GFS, but has not disseminated any GFS. Instead, the MOFNP disseminates fiscal data." - "Zambian fiscal data cover only domestic budgetary central government operations, and data are obtained from administrative public records as a by-product of the budget system." - "Therefore measures to ensure confidentiality or encourage response are not required." - "Data are shared among the agencies involved in fiscal data compilation and dissemination but could be improved to obtain wider data coverage." - "Fiscal data cover only domestic budgetary central government operations and exclude foreign grants received and the expenditure of such grants, extrabudgetary units and local authorities." ### Resources — MOFNP - "In the Budget Office Department, staff, facilities, computing and financial resources are sufficient for producing the current reports on the domestic operations of the budgetary central government." - "The International Debt Management Department of the MOFNP does experience problems with computing resources and capacity." - "In both departments, staff need training to compile GFS." - "None of the staff working in the Budget Office Department have had the opportunity to receive formal training in the compilation of GFS." ### Relevance and user engagement — MOFNP / CSO - "The MOFNP welcomes feedback from internal users, no arrangements are in place to obtain feedback from users of fiscal statistics outside the government." - "The BOZ monitors the needs for monetary and balance of payments statistics in committees and seminars in which major users participate, or from reporters of the BOZ’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinions and Expectations as well as other users in the private sector. However, no regular user surveys or meetings are conducted by the BOZ." ### Other quality management - "All participants in the process of compiling fiscal data on the domestic budgetary central government operations are focused on the quality of information available and strive to improve quality." - "Data are produced from actual records in the accounting system of government for which clear rules and a code of conduct exists." - "MOFNP begins to take some steps to improve data sources from extrabudgetary operations but not yet from other levels of government operations." - BOZ: "Processes are in place for monitoring quality and making continuing improvements to monetary and balance of payments statistics." - BOZ: "Over the last few years, efforts have been made by the BOZ to adhere to international standards, namely the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM) and the Balance of Payments Manual, fifth edition (BPM5)." - BOZ: "The improvement of quality of monetary and balance of payments statistics is to be assessed through the review of implementation of the BOZ’s Strategic Plan 2004–07." - BOZ: "Economics Department Manual: Computation and Compilation Guidelines" prepared and updated. ### Professionalism - MOFNP: "The accounting system regulations issued by the MOFNP provide for the strict application of accounting principles and control mechanisms." - MOFNP: "Fiscal data are compiled on an impartial basis using available sources." - MOFNP staff: "are understood to be free from political or other influence in choosing the most appropriate sources and methods for compiling budget execution data." - MOFNP: "Staff are encouraged and assisted to further their studies and on-the job training are provided. Staff are also afforded the opportunity to attend seminars, workshops and courses." - BOZ: "The BOZ has a strong culture of professionalism of the staff, which is ensured through the recruitment process, as well as by the assignment structure." - BOZ: "The choice of data sources and statistical techniques for the compilation of monetary and balance of payments statistics is based solely on statistical considerations." ### Transparency - "No information on the terms and conditions applying to fiscal data is made public (apart from the laws governing the operation of the MOFNP and metadata on the IMF website)." - "The government and the BOZ have internal access to statistics prior to their release to the public, but no information concerning this access is made public." - BOZ: "The BOZ Act 1996 and the Banking and Financial Service Act 1994 are accessible on the BOZ website." - BOZ: "Monetary and balance of payments data released by the BOZ are clearly identified as its product." - BOZ: "The BOZ has given advanced notice of major changes in methodology and source data for monetary statistics, whereas such practices have not been introduced for balance of payments statistics." - MOFNP: "Fiscal data for the domestic operations of budgetary central government are only disseminated in a hard copy format. The fiscal data are not released to all users at the same time; some official users outside MOFNP get information before the public." - CSO/NA: "The last national accounts publication was produced in 2001." - CSO/NA: "Consistent series are available from 1994." - CSO/NA: "The statistics are not released to all users at the same time and policymakers in the MOFNP and the BOZ may have access to the data before the public. An advance release calendar is not available." ### Ethical standards - "All government employees are subject to the General Orders of the Public Service. The document describes the conditions of employment of civil servants, the code of conduct, and disciplinary procedures that will be followed in cases of misconduct." - "In addition to these general ethical standards set for staff, the Finance (Control and Management) Act of 1969 and Treasury Instructions also governs the code of conduct of accounting officers." - BOZ: "All BOZ staff are required to abide by the Code of Conduct of the BOZ, updated and spelled out in the Staff Handbook, circulated by the Human Resource Department." - BOZ: "A departmental code of conduct has been prepared to accommodate working circumstances peculiar to each department." --- ### Bank of Zambia (BOZ) — selected prerequisites and resourcing ### Legal and institutional environment - "The responsibility of the Bank of Zambia to produce monetary statistics is clearly established in the BOZ Act 1996 and Banking and Financial Services Act 1994." - "The BOZ’s responsibility to compile balance of payments statistics is not based on a legal act, as the CSO is legally responsible for compiling the balance of payments under the Census and Statistics Act 1964." - "Arrangements within the BOZ for the compilation of monetary statistics enable smooth and effective data sharing, whereas arrangements with the government agencies participating in the production of balance of payments statistics are not strong enough to ensure the timely data transfer to the BOZ." - "The BOZ Act and applicable legislation protect confidentiality of individual responses." ### Resources and efficiency - "Staff and financing resources are adequate for monetary statistics, but inadequate for the balance of payments to meet the need to develop source data through large surveys on a regular basis." - "The BOZ is short of IT experts to implement a new database to be used for compiling monetary and balance of payments statistics." - "The efficient use of existing resources is promoted through the BOZ’s Strategic Plan 2004–07, which requires each department of the BOZ to prepare quarterly progress reports and conduct annual reviews." - "Efficiency is ensured by a cost-effective annual budget consistent with the strategic plan and by preparation of daily time-sheet by compilers of monetary and balance of payments statistics." --- ### National Accounts — Methodological soundness, Accuracy and reliability, Serviceability, Accessibility ### Concepts, scope, classifications, and basis of recording - "The accounts are compiled broadly according to the concepts and definitions of the 1968 SNA, instead of the 1993 SNA." - "The CSO compiles the accounts and tables that form the basis for developing a coherent set of national accounts statistics. However, they do not constitute the minimum requirements established by the Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National Accounts for implementing the 1993 SNA." - "Transactions are recorded on an accrual basis, except for government transactions, which are recorded on a cash basis." - "For most activities, the valuation of intermediate consumption excludes value added taxes." ### Source data and statistical techniques - "The data collection program is not comprehensive and the source data are outdated." - "The program does not cover economic activities that have been introduced within the past ten years." - "Establishment/enterprise data are not collected on a regular basis and the Household Budget Survey (HBS) data are 10 years old." - "The price statistics are based on outdated weights." - "Statistical techniques: The statistical techniques are weak. The base year is outdated. The CPI and wholesale price index are widely used to derive current price estimates by reflating the volume estimates extrapolated from the base year. Nonobserved activities are not covered." - "Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs: The extent of the statistical discrepancy in the production accounts is not known. A supply and use framework is not used to assess the discrepancies in the accounts." - "Revision studies: Revision studies are not conducted in a systematic manner and on a regular basis." ### Periodicity, timeliness, consistency, and accessibility - "The periodicity and timeliness is in line with the GDDS recommendations." - "Consistent series are available from 1994." - "The last national accounts publication was produced in 2001." - "The statistics are not released to all users at the same time and policymakers in the MOFNP and the BOZ may have access to the data before the public. An advance release calendar is not available." - "The CSO provides users with additional non-published data on request." - "Metadata: The sources and methods used to compile the statistics are documented in four volumes. Limited metadata are also available in the National Accounts Bulletin. The CSO website provides a link to the GDDS metadata." - "Assistance to users: The publications provide contact information for the CSO; however, specific information on contacting national accounts staff is not available." --- ### Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Methodological soundness, Accuracy and reliability, Serviceability, Accessibility ### Concepts, scope, classifications, and basis for recording - "Concepts and definitions used are consistent with the 1993 SNA and the draft CPI Manual." - "The CPI covers the consumption of all types of households regardless of size and income, both urban and rural." - "Three separate CPIs are compiled for urban low income, urban high income, and rural households." - "Classification: The CPI is tabulated on national classification that closely follows Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP), which is the recommended international standard. The CSO plans to implement the COICOP in full." - "Basis for recording: Both prices and weights are determined on an accrual basis using market transaction values. However, sales of durable goods are not netted out from purchases for the calculation of market basket weights and the detail in characteristics is not always sufficient to identify the variety of an item." ### Source data and techniques - "The detail of source data for the CPI weights is good and the price collection program comprehensive. However, the price data relies only on the primary collection, scientific sampling methods are not used and new goods are not added to the index." - "The frequency of the Household Budget Survey (HBS) is not sufficient to react to changes in consumer expenditure structure in a timely basis." - "Statistical techniques: Although the basic methods used with the CPI software are good, it leaves the compiler short of tools to alter compilation and adjustment methods. This also restricts supplementary data collection." ### Assessment, revisions, periodicity, and dissemination - "Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs: The quality of the CPI relies on the validity of individual price observations. No other validation rules are implemented and investigations on intermediate data or discrepancies in statistical output are not carried out." - "Revision studies: The CPI data are final as released. No formal studies are prepared and published except for those on the general HBS results that are used for estimating the CPI market basket weights." - "Periodicity and timeliness of the CPI are good. The monthly CPI is published during the last week of the reference month, thereby meeting GDDS recommendations for periodicity and timeliness." - "Consistency: The CPI uses a consistent and internationally accepted major group classification. The CSO also links old index series together in order to obtain a consistent historical CPI time series." - "Data accessibility: The CPI is disseminated in a number of different media including a press release, a monthly bulletin The Monthly, and on the internet. Information is released simultaneously to all users. However, there is no advance release calendar." - "Metadata accessibility: The CSO has produced good material on the CPI metadata. However, very little has been made available to the users." - "Assistance to users: In general, assistance to users is well handled. The Dissemination Branch coordinates with other CSO branches and data users. However, only general contact points are given, and a large part of disseminated data is provided to users on the basis of a written request." --- ### Government Finance Statistics (GFS) — Methodological soundness, Accuracy and reliability, Serviceability, Accessibility ### Concepts, scope, classification, and basis for recording - "Concepts and definitions of fiscal data for Zambia are loosely based on the recommendations of GFSM 1986." - "There are no plans at present in the MOFNP to migrate the basis of compilation to the new GFS standards based on the GFSM 2001. The CSO is, however, planning to migrate to the GFSM 2001." - "The scope of disseminated fiscal data covers the domestic revenue, expenditure and financing of all budgetary central government units and excludes foreign grants received and the expenditure of such grants, extrabudgetary units and local authorities. Therefore, data on general government operations are not compiled." - "Although the classification of domestic revenue, expenditure and financing loosely follows the analytical framework of the GFSM 1986, concepts and definitions of revenue, expenditure, and net lending differ from the international standard in significant ways." - "Basis for recording: Revenue transactions are recorded at time of deposit and expenditure is recorded when transfers to spending agencies takes place and not at the time of actual expenditure." ### Source data, assessment, and statistical techniques - "Data collection programs to compile source data are ample for data on the domestic operations of the budgetary central government." - "Fiscal data lack foreign grants and related expenditure which is significant. Data collection programs to obtain source data from statutory agencies and local governments are not available." - "Assessment of source data: No automated procedures are in place to facilitate the monitoring of the accuracy of data reported by the Zambian Revenue Authority (ZRA) or any line ministry. Regular meetings are held between the MOFNP and the BOZ and the ZRA to reconcile the data." - "Statistical techniques: Fiscal data compilation covering the domestic operations of budgetary central government is based on administrative records with no need to employ any statistical techniques in the compilation process." ### Validation, revisions, periodicity, and accessibility - "Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs: Fiscal data from the MOFNP and monetary statistics from the BOZ are compared and reconciled for domestic budgetary operations only." - "Revision studies: No revisions studies are conducted by the MOFNP and the disseminated data are not revised." - "Periodicity and timeliness: The periodicity and timeliness of fiscal data for domestic budgetary central government operations and domestic and foreign debt meet or exceed GDDS recommendations." - "Consistency: The same concepts and classifications are used for monthly and annual fiscal data. Consistent time series are available since 1990. Due to a lack of a comprehensive set of GFS tables, it is impossible to assess the consistency of GFS with corresponding statistics for other sectors." - "Revision policy and practice: No formal revision policy exists and revisions are performed only in cases where an amount was incorrectly disseminated. These types of revisions are accompanied by a footnote to the table. No revisions are made to replace preliminary data with final data." - "Data accessibility: Fiscal data for the domestic operations of budgetary central government are presented in the monthly, semi-annual, and annual reports of the MOFNP. The layout and classification of the data follow budget guidelines rather than the international accepted standard, which hampers international comparability." - "Metadata accessibility: The MOFNP does not disseminate metadata. Metadata describing the central government operations and the central government debt can be accessed through a hyperlink from the CSO website to the GDDS website. These metadata contain brief descriptions of concepts and classifications in use, and broadly describe differences with international practice." - "Assistance to users: There is no easy access regarding information on contact persons. Names of contact persons are disseminated only on the GDDS metadata pages. The monthly Macroeconomic Indicators publication identifies a general contact point for further information." *Source: _cr0530 - 0. Prerequisites of quality* ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2. Methodological soundness ### Monetary statistics — concepts, scope, classification, recording, and sources - Concepts and definitions are broadly consistent with the MFSM recommendations. However, the terms and concepts of the monetary survey still follow older guidelines. - Scope is broadly consistent with the MFSM recommendations. However, the monetary survey does not include the Building Societies, the National Savings and Credit Bank, and all banks in liquidation. - Classification/sectorization are broadly consistent with the MFSM recommendations. However: - Local governments are not classified as money holders. - Residents and nonresidents are classified on a legal status rather than on the criteria of center of economic interest. - Categories of shares and other equity, insurance technical reserves, and financial derivatives are not separately identified. - Basis for recording is broadly consistent with the MFSM recommendations. However: - Securities are valued at cost and accrued interests are not added to underlying instruments. - Source data are collected on a timely basis and broadly provide the information needed for monetary statistics. However: - Simple rules are used to distinguish between residents and nonresidents deposits in commercial bank returns. - Repos are not identified separately in the BOZ trial balance. - Assessment of source data: The source data for the monetary statistics are based entirely on the trial balance of the BOZ and commercial bank returns. They are routinely reviewed and assessed to ensure accuracy and reliability. - Statistical techniques: Monetary statistics rely on balance sheet data. Hence, no adjustments or transformations of data are used. - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs are conducted routinely. Major aggregates of the monetary survey are validated against other financial data available in the BOZ, e.g., data of Zambia’s settlement system and government securities issues. Causes of discrepancies are investigated within the BOZ and with government agencies. - Revisions studies: The causes of revisions are identified with a view to improve statistical processes. - Periodicity and timeliness meet the GDDS recommendations. - Consistency: Monetary survey data are broadly consistent. However: - Interbank positions tend to be augmented due to the insufficient coverage of banks. - Breaks in time series are not fully explained in the BOZ’s dissemination media. - Although monetary data are reconcilable with data on the domestic central government budget, there are no consistency checks of other levels of government operations and monetary data. - Revision policy and practice: - Revisions are carried out whenever necessary. This policy is not made public. - The last three months’ data are preliminary and, accordingly, the status of the data is identified with “Prel.” in the Statistics Fortnightly. However, the status of data is not identified in all monetary data tables. - Data accessibility: - The BOZ publishes monetary data clearly with charts and tables through a variety of publications. - The BOZ does not disseminate an advance release calendar to the public. - In the absence of embargo on data release between the first release and the general dissemination, monetary data are not made available to all users at the same time. - More detailed data are available upon request, but this fact is not made public. - Metadata accessibility: Adequate, as the BOZ website is hyperlinked to the IMF GDDS website, where there is a clear reference that users can access metadata. - Assistance to users: Readily available. The Assistant Director (Information and Statistics Division) of the Economics Department is identified as a contact person and the telephone and fax numbers are indicated. A catalog of publications and press releases is available on the BOZ website. ### Balance of payments — concepts, scope, classification, recording, and sources - Concepts and definitions: The conceptual framework is broadly consistent with BPM5. Exceptions: - The definition of direct investment where the definition of ten percent or more of ordinary shares or voting power is not applied. - The definition of resident and nonresident relies on physical addresses rather than the center of economic interest concept as recommended by the BPM5. - The definition of residency for construction activities is also not applied. - Scope: Significant gaps such as the reinvestment of earnings, trade credits, and changes in export proceeds held abroad by mining enterprises and nontraditional exporters underlie the inadequacy of the scope of the balance of payments. - Classification/sectorization: Numerous transactions such as interest received on foreign assets of commercial banks and subscriptions to international organizations are misclassified. - Basis for recording: - Transactions are valued at market prices where they are available and at face value for debt instruments. - Proxy values are used if no actual values are available. - Interest is recorded on a due basis. - Source data: Generally adequate in timeliness, but deficient in coverage. Because source data are insufficient to compile adequate data, estimation methods are used. The PCF project did result in comprehensive data suitable for the balance of payments but no follow-up survey has been conducted. - Assessment of source data: New source data are assessed for reliability and accuracy. There are procedures for checks for internal consistency, comparisons with other data sources, and queries of large transactions. - Statistical techniques: Outdated estimation methods have remained in use unchanged for many years. Verification of data pertains to editing, tabulation, consistency within reported data, and signaling of deviations from historical patterns. - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs: Except for copper exports, few intermediate results are validated against other information. - Revision studies: No studies or analysis of revisions are undertaken. Investigations are limited to big revisions. - Periodicity and timeliness: In line with the GDDS recommendations. - Consistency: Data are internally consistent and consistent over time. They are consistent with the national accounts, the monetary statistics, and the external debt statistics. However, they are not consistent with government accounts in the areas of grants and government services paid abroad. - Revision policy and practice: - Revisions are made when new data have become available. The public is not informed of revision policy. - Preliminary and revised data are not clearly identified. - Data accessibility: - Data are disseminated in an analytic presentation only with a brief commentary, but without supporting tables. - Data are presented in an aggregated format and no distinction is made between foreign assets and liabilities in the financial account. - No notes to the tables are provided. - Short-term financial flows are lumped together with the net errors and omissions item. - Additional data are available on request. - Data are not released to all users simultaneously and there is no advance release calendar. - Data are not made available on the BOZ website. - Metadata accessibility: The booklet on methodology describing the compilation of the balance of payments is not disseminated to the public. - Assistance to users: The Quarterly Financial and Statistics Review and the Annual Report published by the BOZ provide points of contact with e-mail addresses. A contact point specifically for the balance of payments is not provided, except on the GDDS website, which can be accessed through the BOZ website. A catalog of publications and press releases is also available on the BOZ website. These products are free of charge. ### Key methodological shortcomings summarized - Use of legal status and physical address criteria rather than center of economic interest for residency classification (monetary and BOP). - Incomplete institutional coverage in the monetary survey (exclusion of Building Societies, the National Savings and Credit Bank, and banks in liquidation). - Failure to classify local governments as money holders. - Securities in monetary statistics valued at cost and accrued interest not added to instruments. - Repos not separately identified in BOZ trial balance; simple rules to distinguish resident vs nonresident deposits. - Significant BOP scope gaps (reinvestment of earnings, trade credits, export proceeds held abroad). - Misclassification of numerous BOP transactions. - Outdated BOP estimation methods and limited validation of intermediate results (except copper exports). - Revision policy not publicized and preliminary/revised data not always clearly identified. - Lack of advance release calendar and absence of simultaneous release/embargo practice. - Limited dissemination of BOP data and methodological booklet. ### Staff recommendations and actions (selected, as stated) - Improve coordination and data-sharing among data producing agencies, for example through the creation of a national statistics committee. - Conduct exercises to assess the relevance of data to meet the needs of users, including user surveys. - Disseminate the terms and conditions under which the statistics are compiled and inform users how they could access these terms and conditions; provide information on internal access of data before general release. - Conduct and disseminate studies on the revisions to the statistics; publicize revision policy. - Improve dissemination practices: disseminate advance release calendars for all datasets; establish a practice of simultaneous release of data by using an embargo period. - Monetary statistics specific recommendations: - Allocate IT expertise to the Economics Department so that AREMOS database can be implemented smoothly. - Publish the depository corporations survey, by the inclusion of the Building Societies and the National Savings and Credit Bank, as well as all banks in liquidation, and reduce the discrepancies in the interbank positions. - Reclassify local governments as money holders and apply stricter rules to determine the residency on the basis of center of economic interest. - Expand the reconciliation exercise for monetary and fiscal data to include fiscal data on extrabudgetary central government operations. Enhance the accuracy of commercial bank data on government ministries’ accounts relating to direct donor financed projects that are outside the MOFNP budget. - Balance of payments specific recommendations: - Clarify and make more official the arrangement that gives the BOZ the mandate to compile balance of payments and the obligation to disseminate data. - Increase staff resources to develop new methodologies and strengthen data sources. - Disseminate balance of payments data more extensively and regularly, e.g., including quarterly balance of payments data in the Quarterly Financial and Statistical Review and on the BOZ website. - Initiate an annual enterprise survey based on the groundwork laid by the PCF project; initiate smaller quarterly enterprise surveys of only the largest enterprises. - Initiate efforts to revitalize the reporting of external transactions settled through banks, the International Transactions Reporting System. *Source: _cr0530 - 2. Methodological soundness* ### 0.1 Legal and institutional ### _cr0530 - 0.1 Legal and institutional ### Legal and institutional arrangements and coordination - No formalized program for data-sharing and coordination. Technical committees are non-functional. - The Statistics Act mandates the Director to organize a coordinated scheme of social and economic statistics relating to Zambia. - Coordination currently occurs in the form of meetings with key government agencies and institutions: - CSO conducts regular meetings with the Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MOFNP) to discuss statistical plans and programs. - CSO participates in meetings with the Macroeconomic department of Bank of Zambia (BOZ) and MOFNP to review National accounts statistics. - CSO meets with Export Board of Zambia to review estimates of non traditional exports. - Joint surveys: crop forecast and post harvest surveys with ministry of agriculture and cooperatives; education and health surveys with ministries of education and health respectively. - Existence of a statistics coordinating committee is not provided for in the current statistical act. Until the current statistical act is repealed the current bilateral coordination structure seems to be working well and where there are areas of improvement it can be strengthened. - Recent vigorous follow-ups have improved establishments cooperation, especially from the manufacturing and large scale farming sectors that were previously sources of high non-response rates. ### Resources and staffing - Staff resources cannot support compilation of a minimum set of updated accounts on a regular basis. - Shortage of staff in Dissemination Branch has affected the production of publications. - CSO activities depend on resource allocation from the general treasury and are sometimes faced with resource constraints which affect implementation of statistical programs and recommendations for improvement. ### Relevance and user engagement - The relevance of statistics to users in the private sector not monitored in a systematic manner. - Private sector user surveys are not conducted due to resources constraints. - User perceptions are monitored through monthly statistical releases where users from all sectors are invited to ask or make suggestions. - Website and survey instruments provide contact information for user feedback. - Public sector users are encouraged to provide views through bilateral statistics coordinating groups convening occasionally. ### Source attribution *Prepared by the Statistics Department, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND — Zambia ROSC DQAF chapter excerpts.* --- ### National Accounts: concepts, scope, classification, recording ### Concepts and framework - The 1968 SNA is used as the framework for the accounts. - Parts of 1993 SNA implemented up to Phase I and parts of Phase II following Milestone approach of UNSD. The remaining Phases II –VI will be fully implemented after revising benchmarks and compilation of institutional sector accounts. ### Scope - The scope of the accounts does not fulfill the minimum requirements for implementing the 1993 SNA. Not all economic activities are covered. - Parts of 1993 SNA implemented up to Phase I and parts of Phase II following Milestone approach of UNSD. The remaining Phases II – VI will be fully implemented after revising benchmarks and compilation of institutional sector accounts. ### Classification/sectorization - COICOP or other consumption classifications not used as final consumption expenditure not disaggregated. - In the Zambia compilation of national accounts, this item is obtained as residue and as such is not disaggregated. ### Basis for recording - Recording of government transactions done on a cash basis. - The process of full implementation of the GFS system is still on going and transactions obtained from the fiscal table are based on a cash basis in terms of revenue and expenditure. --- ### Source data, statistical techniques, validation, and revisions (National Accounts) ### Source data and surveys - Business register outdated. Register last updated in 1998. - HBS not conducted on a regular basis. - Establishment surveys not conducted on regular basis. - Data on local government and extra-budgetary activities not available. - The planned broad enterprise enterprise/establishments surveys (economic census) will provide benchmark data for revising the estimates. - HBS was conducted in 2002/3 and part of the Integrated Household Budget Survey through the Living Conditions Monitoring Survey of 2002/3. ### Assessment of source data - Results from assessments of survey data not always made public. - Assessment of source data is availed to technical stakeholder for further advise and common understanding on methodology and data limitations. ### Statistical techniques and benchmarks - Base year outdated. - Widespread use of benchmarks (used to estimate most activities). - Benchmarks outdated (1994). - Deflation techniques weak. - The planned broad enterprise enterprise/establishments surveys (economic census) will provide benchmark data for revising the estimates. ### Validation and supply-use framework - Statistical discrepancies not investigated. - Supply and use framework not used. - Supply and use framework to be implemented by early 2005. Consultant being sought through GDDS to help in establishing the framework. ### Revision studies and policy - Studies and analyses of revisions not conducted routinely. - Comprehensive review of the revisions will be done during the next rebasing exercise. - Revision schedule not available to the public. - Revision schedule for the public may not be accurate and would be difficult to sustain because of the relocation of statistical schedules based on resource availability. Resource disbursements are not predictable due to resource constraints at the Treasury. ### Data accessibility and user assistance - Detailed publications are not produced in a regular, timely manner. - Advance release calendar not available. - Data available in soft copy format but efforts and resources are being mobilized to increase statistical publications. Advance release calendar would be difficult to maintain due to inconsistent disbursements of resources from the Treasury. - Contact points not precise in publications. Subject-specific contact information available in GDDS metadata, which is linked to CSO website. - The official contact person is the head of department (Director of Census and Statistics) who may delegate to a relevant subject matter specialist where required. --- ### Consumer Price Index (CPI) ### Resources and IT - Computer software and IT infrastructure are not up to date. - Production and dissemination of statistics is dependent on key persons. - Plans are in place to implement the new CPI based on different software. IMF and ADB/ICP have both developed CPI softwares to be used by National Statistical Offices before December 2004. ### Transparency and advance notice - No advance notice is given for major changes in the index. - An advance notice of the implementation of the new CPI will be published in the ‘Monthly’. ### Scope and weights - Gross weights are used for housing and durable goods acquisitions. - The HBS data will be analysed to provide net weights for housing and durable goods before September 2004. - Sales of durable consumer goods are not netted out of for the CPI weights. - The HBS data will be analysed to reflect net weights for durable consumer goods before September 2004. ### Source data and index construction - New goods are not added to the index and scientific sampling methods are not used. The weight data are outdated. - In future, new goods would be added to the index in between revisions. New weights for the CPI would be developed by September 2004. - Validation processes could be improved. - The use of different computer software is going to improve the validation process. Before December 2004. - Index formula could be changed and methods to account for quality changes and missing price should be investigated. - Some methodological changes would be implemented in the new CPI. By September 2004. - There is no systematic process to validate intermediate data or discrepancies in statistical outputs. - The new computer software would facilitate the process of validating intermediate data by December 2004. --- ### Government Finance Statistics (GFS) ### Concepts and definitions - National developed concepts and definitions are followed which loosely follows internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - CSO does not follow National developed concepts but rather follows the IMF manual concepts. Example: Privatisation fund is taken as revenue in the financial report (obtained from the Auditor General’s office). CSO reclassify this as part of financing, i.e. reduction in shares and other equity, the counterpart being an increase in cash/deposits. ### Scope - The scope is not consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - Information is restricted to domestic operations of the budgetary central government. - CSO is in the process of compiling Local Government financial statistics and statistics pertaining to Statutory bodies. Consolidated Central Government and General Government financial statistics will be ready by January, 2005. ### Classification/sectorization - Classification differs significantly from internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - CSO does not follow the financial report from the Auditor General’s office layout. CSO reclassifies the information according to the IMF GFS 2001 manual. ### Data accessibility and dissemination - Statistics are presented in a way that facilitates proper interpretation and meaningful comparisons for budgetary purposes, but not for international comparisons. An advance release calendar does not exist. The fact that additional information can be obtained is not made public. - CSO follows the GFS manual in the compilation of financial statistics. However, information from the source document (The financial report) especially on financing is not adequate. - GFS, though at the moment only data for budgetary central government is available, will be released to the public through the ‘Monthly’ as from August 2004. - Plans are in place to avail data to the public on CSO’s internet website. --- ### Comments from the Bank of Zambia (BoZ) — Monetary and Balance of Payments statistics ### Cross-cutting and transparency - The report is a fair assessment of standards and codes observed by the Bank of Zambia in its compilation of the monetary and Balance of Payments statistics. - Shortcomings highlighted by the IMF ROSC Mission have been recognized as challenges. Resources permitting, the authorities have committed to making improvements in the near future to conform to internationally accepted standards and codes. - On Transparency: Disseminate the terms and conditions for the compilation of monetary and balance of payments statistics and access to these terms and conditions: - BoZ has provided a clear link to the IMF website carrying the metadata for compilation of the statistics. - BoZ is finalizing the compilation manual, which will be provided to users upon request. ### Monetary statistics: IT and data compilation - Allocate IT expertise to the Economics Department so that AREMOS database can be implemented smoothly. - AREMOS project is part of the strategic plan in the Economics Department for building a centralized database. - Work done: arranging data into AREMOS format, creating mnemonics for data coding, filling in holiday and other data gaps, data updates backwards and current. - Other departments (Financial Markets and Bank Supervision) have reached advanced stages of AREMOS data preparations. - Data worked on so far are still in Excel spreadsheets. - IT expert from the BoZ IT department will be utilized to enhance uploading into AREMOS. Training in day-to-day use of AREMOS is already underway within BoZ. - Publish the depository corporations’ survey, by the inclusion of the Building Societies and the National Savings and Credit Bank, as well as all banks in liquidation, and reduce discrepancies in interbank positions. - Monetary and Financial Statistics Mission (June 26–July 9, 2003) recommended migration to a depository corporations survey by revising data from December 2001 to date based on the new template. - Progress: Data revised from January 2003 to date. Work underway to upload data from December 2001 to December 2003 (these data are only on hard copy due to accounting system change from Fourgen to Sun in 2003). - New survey revised to include building societies and the National Savings and Credit bank from December 2001 to date. - A new reporting form was designed to capture inter-bank positions covering all depository corporations. Short-term reconciliation is being done to check inconsistencies. - Reclassify local governments as money holders and apply stricter rules to determine residency on the basis of center of economic interest. - Discussed with IMF Statistics Mission; in the new survey data has been reclassified per IMF recommendation from December 2001 to date. - Classification of entities in both new and old survey is based strictly on the definition supplied in the BPM5 and repos in the BoZ Trial Balance are clearly identified and mapped accordingly. - Expand reconciliation exercise for monetary and fiscal data to include fiscal data on extra budgetary central government operations. Enhance accuracy of commercial bank data on government ministries’ accounts relating to direct donor-financed projects outside the MOFNP budget. - Current reconciliation exercise fully takes into account fiscal data on extra budgetary operations as these could only be channeled through Government accounts. - Commercial banks’ data on donors’ funds is accurately captured as all commercial banks holding Government accounts are required to provide a separate schedule of all Government accounts (in Kwacha and/or US dollar). ### Balance of Payments - The report is a fair statement of facts about the existing status of the Balance of Payments statistics compilation in Zambia. - Shortcomings highlighted by the IMF ROSC Mission remain challenges for further development of BOP statistics in Zambia. - Some recommended improvements are already in the BOP Unit’s plans for improvement in the near future. - The recommendations provide a solid foundation for discussions regarding steps required to improve the compilation of Balance of Payments in Zambia. ### Source attribution *Comments and responses from the Bank of Zambia included in the IMF ROSC DQAF assessment for Zambia.* ### 1. Comments by Users of Macroeconomic Statistics June 3, 2004 Questionnaire Results ### 1. Comments by Users of Macroeconomic Statistics June 3, 2004 Questionnaire Results — Analyzed by Type of User ### Acronyms (selected from source) - 1968 SNA System of National Accounts 1968 - 1993 SNA System of National Accounts 1993 - BOPSC Balance of Payments Statistics Committee - BPM5 Balance of Payments Statistics Manual, fifth edition - BOZ Bank of Zambia - COFOG Classification of Functions of Government - COICOP Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose - CPI Consumer Price Index - CSO Central Statistical Office - DQAF Data Quality Assessment Framework - DSBB Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board - EBZ Export Board of Zambia - ERMD External Resources Mobilization Department - ETC Economic and Technical Cooperation Department - GDDS General Data Dissemination System - GDP Gross Domestic Product - GFCF Gross Fixed Capital Formation - GFS Government Finance Statistics - GFSM 1986 A Manual on Government Finance Statistics 1986 - GFSM 2001 Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 - HBS Household Budget Survey - IDM Investment and Debt Management Department - IFMIS Integrated Financial Management Information System - IMF International Monetary Fund - ISIC International Standard Industrial Classification - ISWGNA Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National Accounts - IT Information Technology - ITRS International Transactions Reporting System - LCMS Living Conditions Monitoring Survey - MFSM Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual - MMMD Ministry of Mines and Mineral Development - MOFNP Ministry of Finance and National Planning - NGO Non Government Organizations - PCF Private Capital Flows Project - PEMFA Public Expenditure Management and Financial Accountability Program - PFCE Private Final Consumption Expenditure - PFSB Public Finance Statistics Branch - PSB Price Statistics Branch of the Central Statistical Office - PSC Public Service Commission - ROSC Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes - SADC Southern Africa Development Committee - SDDS Special Data Dissemination Standard - STA IMF Statistics Department - UNDP United Nations Development Program - UN United Nations - UNSD United Nations Statistics Division - WPI Wholesale Price Index - ZESCO Zambia Electricity Supply Company - ZIC Zambia Investment Center - ZPA Zambia Privatization Agency - ZRA Zambia Revenue Authority ### I. National Accounts Statistics — Prerequisites of Quality: Legal and Institutional Environment Findings: - The Census and Statistics Act Chapter 127 of the Laws of Zambia 1964 establishes the legal authority for the collection, processing, and dissemination of official statistics in Zambia. - The Director of Census and Statistics heads the Central Statistical Office (CSO), which is a department of the Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MOFNP). - Section 14 of the Census and Statistics Act and Statutory Instrument No. 258 of 1966 (Statistics (National Accounts and Balance of Payments) Regulations) provide authority for production of national accounts and balance of payments statistics and prescribe particulars that may be solicited: - (i) the profit and loss account; - (ii) operating income and expenditure; - (iii) fixed capital formation; and - (iv) the balance sheet. - Other regulations under section 14 include Statistics (Agriculture) Regulations, Statistics (Creamery Products) Regulations, Statistics (Meat) Regulations, Statistics (Distribution) Regulations, Statistics (Employment) Regulations, and Statistics (Industrial Production) Regulations. - The Regulations cover only establishments/enterprises; other institutional units are not covered. - The Census and Statistics Act mandates the Director to organize a coordinated scheme of social and economic statistics, but there is no systematic program to coordinate the production of official statistics. - Coordination is primarily bilateral; CSO holds regular meetings with MOFNP and participates in meetings with BOZ Macro-Economics Department; CSO meets quarterly with EBZ to review non-traditional exports estimates. - Joint surveys are conducted (e.g., annual crop forecast survey with the Ministry of Agriculture). - A National Accounts Technical Committee comprising BOZ, MOFNP, and other agencies exists but "has been dormant for the past two to three years and regular meetings have not been conducted." Recommendations (as stated): - Create a national statistical committee, in cooperation with the BOZ and MOFNP, and enhance the coordination. ### I. National Accounts Statistics — Prerequisites of Quality: Confidentiality and Reporting Findings on confidentiality: - Section 1 of the Census and Statistics Act: "no individual return or information provided to the CSO or its agents under the Act shall be disclosed to any person not covered by the Act without the prior written permission of the respondent." - Two exemptions to confidentiality in the Act: - (i) Disclosures may be made for the purposes of prosecution in contravention of the Act; and - (ii) The Minister responsible for the CSO may authorize the disclosure of individual information in response to questions posed by officials employed by the Ministry of Agriculture or in the Department of Veterinary Services. - The second exemption is identified as a weakness as it allows an authority outside of the CSO to divulge individual information without prior consent. - CSO measures: questionnaires advise respondents that information is kept confidential and identify the relevant section of the Act; computers used for data-entry and storage are password protected. - Weaknesses in data transmittal: no electronic transfer mechanism between provincial offices and CSO headquarters; provincial offices submit questionnaires by mail or regular surface transport, risking loss/misplacement. - Questionnaires may be stored for up to ten years and disposed by incineration on the civil service compound; destruction is not supervised by a CSO official and may be carried out by persons not covered by the Act. - All CSO employees must take an oath of secrecy; Census and Statistics Act stipulates a penalty equivalent to 3,000 penalty units or one year of imprisonment for staff found guilty of unlawfully disseminating information. - A penalty unit is equivalent to 5 kwachas. Recommendations (as stated): - Improve procedures to ensure that data are kept confidential. - To minimize the possibility of inadvertent disclosure, questionnaires should be edited and entered in the field. - Otherwise, procedures should be developed to safeguard the confidentiality of information during the transportation of questionnaires. Findings on legal mandate and response: - Section 9 of the Census and Statistics Act provides the legal mandate for collection; persons must provide information in the format requested and in a timely manner. - Section 12 establishes penalties for noncompliance: failure to comply is an offence and liable to a fine not exceeding 1500 penalty units or to imprisonment for a period not exceeding six months. - Despite legal mandate, response rates for surveys for national accounts statistics are low; some surveys discontinued. - CSO attributes low response rates to respondent apathy and technical difficulty of questionnaires; difficulty conducting follow-up due to unavailability of survey staff and national accounts compilers. - CSO has not conducted public awareness programs to improve survey response; relies primarily on effectiveness of data collectors during preliminary rounds. - CSO attempts to organize surveys to reduce respondent burden: surveys targeting same units are normally conducted at same time; questionnaires may be merged when feasible. Recommendations (as stated): - Formulate programs to increase the response rates for surveys, including: - conduct public awareness programs that highlight the usefulness of the information; - provide assistance to respondents in completing questionnaires; - simplify questionnaires; and - Conduct more intensive follow-up exercises. ### I. National Accounts Statistics — Resources Findings: - Resources are insufficient for production of a coherent set of basic statistics. - The National Accounts Branch of the CSO has five staff. Only two of the staff possess university level qualifications; both have received formal training in national accounts statistics. - "The number of professional staff represents less than half of what the NAB requires." - Non-professional staff lack training in national accounts statistics and cannot undertake many compilation tasks. - The Research and Dissemination Branch has four professional staff; staff complement is insufficient and has caused delays in production of key publications. - Computing resources are inadequate: nonprofessional staff share one computer; the division lacks access to a computer network; data transfer among staff is via soft copy exchanges. - CSO submits an annual budget to MOFNP; funding during the year may not be secure and release of Funds by the Ministry is based on central government revenue collections; disbursal may not coincide with CSO work program, causing abandonment or reduction of planned programs. - CSO has received project-related funding from international organizations, but these funds are not normally available for regular statistical programs. - Physical facilities could be improved; number of telephone lines limited, making it sometimes difficult for users to contact the agency. Recommendation (as stated): - Increase staff and computing resources for national accounts compilation and dissemination. Findings on efficient use of resources: - Public service regulations require periodic reviews of staff performance; not normally conducted for regular staff. - Performance of field staff is assessed for every survey; staff remuneration associated with productivity. - CSO assesses available resources against its work program annually and attempts to allocate resources to maximize output; surveys may be streamlined by merging instruments and staff shifted across departments. - Uncertainty over annual budgetary funding severely limits efficient execution of work program and resource allocation. ### I. National Accounts Statistics — Relevance and Quality Management Findings on relevance: - CSO has not conducted recent user surveys or systematic measures to monitor relevance. - The website and survey instruments provide contact information for user feedback. - Public sector users encouraged to provide views via bilateral statistics coordinating groups that convene occasionally. Recommendation (as stated): - Conduct exercises to assess the relevance of data to meeting the needs of users in the private sector, including brief user surveys via the CSO website or via questionnaires distributed with the monthly publication. Findings on quality management: - CSO mission statement: "...to provide for a comprehensive national statistical database yielding high quality statistical information for use by the government, private sector and the wider national and international community...." - CSO organizes training programs for enumerators before every survey to familiarize persons with specific questionnaires. - The Director conducts regular meetings with senior staff to review the work program and assess performance. - CSO does not provide information on the trade-offs in quality and its effects on the work program. - CSO compiles records of editing and processing to assess survey staff performance; information on revision processes and timeliness of output is not available. - CSO has access to international experts but is limited in its ability to implement many recommendations due to resource constraints. - CSO is unable to systematically address user feedback on quality and unable to incorporate emerging data requirements into the national accounts statistical process; new activities over the past ten years have not been incorporated. ### I. National Accounts Statistics — Assurances of Integrity: Professionalism and Editorial Independence Findings: - Section 7 of the Census and Statistics Act states that the Director shall, whenever the Minister directs, collect statistics with respect to such a matter that the Minister may prescribe; further, the Director shall not collect any statistics unless regulations have been made specifying the particulars regarding the statistics to be collected. This implies the Director may not have independence, though the CSO notes this section "is not normally enforced and, by tradition, the Director is the final authority on the compilation of national statistics." - Recruitment and promotion follow public service regulations; staff appointed by the Public Service Commission (PSC) must meet basic criteria; PSC has established 'sector specific' criteria for recruitment. - The Constitution of Zambia prohibits public servants from participating in political activities. Article 65 (7) f of the Constitution advises that persons who actively participate in political activities by standing for political office are deemed to have vacated their public service employment. - Choices of sources and statistical techniques and decisions about dissemination are informed solely by statistical considerations; staff (with occasional external experts) decides on techniques, methodology and data sources based on the need to implement international recommendations. - The Director is solely responsible for disseminating statistics; data are reviewed for consistency and, once the Director is satisfied, approved for release. Data are not presented to any other authority within the MOFNP for review and approval before release. - "The Director of the CSO has commented in the press on the erroneous interpretation of the statistics." Recommendation (as stated): - Amend the Census and Statistics Act to make the CSO the final authority on the statistics that the agency may compile. *Source: _cr0530 - 1. Comments by Users of Macroeconomic Statistics June 3, 2004 Questionnaire Results* ### 1.2 Transparency ### 1.2 Transparency ### 1.2.1 The terms and conditions under which statistics are collected, processed, and disseminated are available to the public - The terms and conditions for compiling the statistics are contained primarily in the Census and Statistics Act. - The Census and Statistics Act is available as part of the collection of the Laws of Zambia that is published on the website of the Parliament of Zambia. - The CSO does not distribute copies of the Census and Statistics Act and it is not available in print at the office or on the agency’s website. - Persons requiring copies of the Act must request a copy from the government printing office for a fee. - The survey instruments identify the legal authority under which the data are collected and provide contact information for respondents with enquiries regarding the data collection program. Recommendation: - Make the terms and conditions for compiling the statistics more accessible to the public by placing the Census and Statistics Act on the CSO website or providing a hyperlink to the Laws of Zambia, published on the website of the Parliament of Zambia. ### 1.2.2 Internal governmental access to statistics prior to their release is publicly identified - The CSO does not provide information regarding internal government access to the statistics. - The GDDS metadata on the IMF’s website notes that the national accounts statistics are submitted to the BOZ and to policymakers in the MOFNP 24 hours before it is disseminated to the public. Recommendation: - Identify internal government access to the statistics on the website and in the Agency’s publications. ### 1.2.3 Products of statistical agencies/units are clearly identified as such - The CSO’s publications and its website clearly identify all the agency’s products. - The logo, address, website, and e-mail address of the CSO is presented on the agency’s publications and the agency requests credit for the use of its material. ### 1.2.4 Advance notice is given of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques - The CSO has not undertaken comprehensive revisions to the statistical methodology or data sources to the national accounts statistics within the past ten years and plans for revising the statistics have not been finalized. --- ### 1.3 Ethical standards ### 1.3.1 Guidelines for staff behavior are in place and are well known to the staff - Staff behavior is guided by the regulations of the public service. - Staff is presented with the regulations when recruited into the public service and are encourage familiarizing themselves with the regulations during the early period of their employment. - A copy of the regulations is maintained in the Administrative Division of the CSO and is available to staff. - The regulations on staff behavior are contained in General Orders of the public service. - The Census and Statistics Act provides additional guidelines for staff engaged in the collection of statistics. - Staff is obliged to swear to an oath of secrecy that they will not, without lawful authority, communicate any information acquired during the course of the employment (see also 0.1.3). --- ### 2 Methodological soundness ### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - The national accounts statistics are compiled broadly according to the recommendations of the 1968 SNA. - The CSO is conducting a phased approach of the 1993 SNA based on the United Nations Statistics Division’s (UNSD) milestones for implementing the 1993 SNA. - To date, the CSO has achieved a limited introduction of phase I of the UNSD’s milestones. ### 2.2 Scope - The CSO compiles the following accounts, which are part of the minimum requirements established by the Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National Accounts (ISWGNA) for implementing the 1993 SNA: - Annual value added and GDP at current and constant prices; - Annual value added components at current prices by activity; and - Annual expenditures on GDP at current prices. - This set of accounts does not fulfill the minimum requirements established by the ISWGNA for implementing the 1993 SNA. The CSO does not compile the sequence of accounts for the total economy (up to financial accounts) and rest of the world accounts (until net lending) as required by the ISWGNA. - The CSO does not disseminate any of the accounts and tables that the ISWGNA has determined as recommended for implementing the 1993 SNA. - The CSO has compiled annual supply and use tables for 1994–1999 but the estimates have not been disseminated. - The accounts cover the total economic territory of Zambia, including: - The activities of embassies and territorial enclaves in the rest of the world; - Bonded warehouses; and - Workers who work part of the year in another country. Included in the scope for measuring output: - Own-account production for all goods for own final consumption; - Output of goods for own-account fixed capital formation; and - Mineral exploration. Not included in the scope for output measurement: - Production of entertainment, literary, and artistic originals; - Production of computer software; and - Illegal output sold to willing buyers. - Production of these items (except illegal output) is not considered significant in Zambia. Assets boundary omissions (not in scope for measuring assets): Among tangible assets: - Defense related assets that could be used for civilian purposes; - Valuables and historical monuments; and - Agricultural work-in-progress. Among intangible assets: - Systems and standard applications computer software and databases; - Entertainment, literary, or artistic originals; - Patented entities; and - Leases and other transferable contracts (such as purchased goodwill). ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - Internationally recommended classification systems used: - International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC rev 2) is used to classify the principal activity of enterprises; - The Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) is used to classify commodity trade; and - No consistent international classification of consumption is currently used as private consumption is not disaggregated or estimated. The CSO plans to use the Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) used to classify the data on household consumption derived from the 2002/03 household budget survey. - The classification of transactions and flows is in line with the 1968 SNA. ### 2.4 Basis for recording - The valuation rules used for recording flows and stocks are partially in accordance with the 1993 SNA. Specifically: - Total imports and exports are valued on an f.o.b. basis and an estimate of insurance and freight is available. - Deviations from the 1993 SNA recommendations: - Market output is valued at factor cost and not at basic or producer prices; and - Intermediate consumption excludes value added tax. - Recording of transactions is on an accruals basis, except for government transactions, which are recorded on a cash basis. - The CSO collects data on the establishment level therefore the data are recorded on a gross basis. --- ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### 3.1 Source data 3.1.1 Source data are obtained from comprehensive data collection programs that take into account country-specific conditions - The source data used to compile the statistics are weak. - The data are collected from a limited program and are not sufficient to compile a coherent set of updated statistics. - The compilation process is based largely on outdated data and benchmarks. - The CSO is planning to conduct a broad enterprise/establishment survey 2005 that would provide benchmark data for revising the estimates. Enterprise/establishment statistics: - The CSO possesses a business register, which contains about 25,000 entries of establishments and enterprises. - The register has not been updated since 1998 and is therefore outdated. - Establishment/enterprise statistics are not collected on a regular basis as the CSO does not have a program of annual surveys of business units. - The national accounts compilation process therefore uses data derived from two major establishment surveys, the National Income Inquiry and the Census of Industrial Production, which were conducted about ten years ago. National Income Inquiry: - Conducted between September 1995 and September 1996 and requested information for the 1994 calendar year. - The survey covered distribution, transport, and other services and the business register was used as the sample frame. - Enterprises were classified by size based on number of employees: - Large enterprises––At least 100 employees; - Medium-sized enterprises––Less than 100 employees but greater than 10 employees; - Small Enterprises––Less than 10 employees. - The survey covered all large enterprises, about 2000, and a 10 percent sample of medium-sized enterprises. - The survey achieved a 67 percent response rate. Census of Industrial Production: - Conducted to cover activities of mining, manufacturing, electricity, and water. - The census was last conducted in 1994. Household Budget Survey (HBS): - HBS data used in the compilation process was derived from a 1994 HBS. - A new HBS was conducted during November 2002 to October 2003 and the CSO expects to use the information to revise the national accounts estimates. - The HBS covered 10,000 households, which represented about 0.5 percent of the total number of households in Zambia. - The sample consisted of 520 clusters spread equally between rural and urban areas. Rural clusters consisted of 15 households and urban clusters consisted of 25 households. - Urban households were classified according to income levels: low income, middle income, and high income. Income level information was obtained from local government authorities and defined by broad region/village level rather than by individual households, creating potential misclassification. - Rural households were classified according to size of farm holdings: small-scale farming, medium-scale farming, and large-scale farming. A fourth classification covered non-farmers. - The CSO indicated the survey recorded close to a 100 percent response rate due to an effective program for household replacement. - The final report should be available during June 2004. Other surveys and data sources: - Agriculture: CSO and Ministry of Agriculture conduct crop forecast surveys in three phases (preliminary during planting; intermediate during growing; final during harvesting). National accounts use primarily third-phase data. A post harvest survey provides more comprehensive data but is time consuming and not timely; the survey for 2002/2003 is currently in the field. - Industrial Production: CSO conducts a quarterly survey of industrial production collecting aggregate data on the volume of mining and manufacturing output from key producers; the survey collects no data on revenue or expenditure. - Government finance statistics: Comprehensive government finance statistics are not available. CSO receives aggregate data on central government operations from the Budget Unit of MOFNP; no data available on local government operations or extra-budgetary transactions. Data on defense-related transactions are only available on a highly aggregated level. The Public Finance Branch of the CSO compiled government finance statistics up to 1999; the CSO has since discontinued this exercise. - Merchandise trade statistics are available in electronic format on a monthly basis from the Revenue Authority. - The CSO’s Price Statistics Branch (PSB) compiles the consumer price index used by the national accounts compilers. - The PSB also compiled a wholesale price index; however, the index was discontinued in 1998 as it had become seriously outdated. The index was computed using weights derived in 1966. Recommendations: - Undertake regular (preferably annual) enterprise/establishments surveys to take account of all formal activities not adequately covered by administrative statistics. - Explore the possibility of using data from the records of the VAT to compile the national accounts estimates. 3.1.2 Source data reasonably approximate the definitions, scope, classifications, valuation, and time of recording required - Source data reasonably approximate the definitions, scope, classifications, and time of recording required. - The data collection program does not provide adequate coverage of economic activities and does not include many new activities introduced over the past 10 years, such as activities of cellular phone companies and increased mining of precious metals. 3.1.3 Source data are timely - Data from administrative sources are generally received on a timely basis; however, data from surveys are outdated. - The post harvest survey is normally conducted too late for the data to be used in the national accounts compilation process. ### 3.2 Assessment of source data 3.2.1 Source data—including censuses, sample surveys and administrative records—are routinely assessed - Survey data are routinely assessed for sampling error, response error, and non-sampling error. - Survey staff at provincial offices and CSO headquarters review survey results and may refer errors to field staff for verification. - Computer programs used for data entry and processing contain automated editing procedures that highlight both survey and data-entry errors. - The computerized program sequence and the data entry checks are detailed in the publication Documentation of the National Accounts Programs, produced by the CSO. - Survey staff monitors these errors and may use the information to improve the survey process. ### 3.3 Statistical techniques 3.3.1 Data compilation employs sound statistical techniques to deal with data sources - Estimates for survey non-response are derived using a grossing factor based on employment. The grossing factor is computed as the ratio of estimate of population employment to sample employment. - The CSO’s Labor and Employment Branch compiled the employment data in separate exercises. - The compilation process does not utilize procedures to obtain exhaustive measures of GDP despite the high level of informal activity, unrecorded cross-border trade, and probable undercoverage of the surveys. 3.3.2 Other statistical procedures employ sound statistical techniques - The use of benchmark data is widespread and the benchmarks are outdated. Benchmark data from 1994 are used to estimate all activities. - International best practice recommends that the use of benchmarks should be limited to less than 20 percent of economic activities and that the benchmarks should not be more than five years old. Specific issues related to the production approach: - Owner-occupied dwellings: Output is valued as estimated rentals tenants would pay for similar accommodation; benchmark data used are outdated leading to biased estimates. - Work-in-progress: Growing crops, standing timber, stocks of fish, and livestock reared for food are not treated as work-in-progress; total output is allocated to the period when harvest occurs or livestock is slaughtered. - Construction: A commodity flow approach is used to estimate value added and gross capital formation, so estimates of value added take account of work-in-progress. - Inventory Valuation Adjustment: Inventories are not adjusted for holding gains/losses. The estimates are deflated using the WPI. - Consumption of fixed capital: The perpetual inventory method is not used; estimates of consumption of fixed capital are not included in the national accounts. - Cash vs. accrual: Data on government transactions are available on a cash basis and the CSO does not adjust them to an accrual basis. Specific issues relating to volume measures of GDP: - The base year for the constant price estimates is 1994, and this is outdated. - The 1993 SNA recommends that annual chain linking be used or, if not, the base year should be updated with a minimum frequency of five years. - Double deflation techniques are not used; the system depends heavily on reflecting the volume estimate to derive the current price estimate. - The CPI is widely used to deflate volume estimates; the CPI does not reflect underlying price changes in most economic activities being measured. - The WPI used for some activities is based on weights derived in 1966 and is seriously outdated. - Both the CPI and the WPI include components not part of producers’ expenditure, distorting measurement of price changes. - Volume measures of taxes and subsidies on products are estimated by deflating current estimates using the WPI, contrary to recommended international practice. The 1993 SNA recommends estimating volume measures by applying base-year tax rates to the volume of transactions or extrapolating base-year tax/subsidy using a volume extrapolator of transactions. Expenditure approach procedures: - The estimate of private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is derived as a residual. - Experimental PFCE estimates using data from the 1994 HBS are deficient and have not been introduced into the official national accounts. - Government final consumption expenditure is estimated at the one digit level of the Classification of Functions of Government (COFOG). Constant price estimates are derived using a wage index for compensation of employees and wholesale price index for other goods and services. - Estimates of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) are not derived by type of economic activity or by type of asset due to source data deficiencies; the CSO derives an aggregate estimate of GFCF using data on merchandise imports. Proper techniques used: - Government final expenditure excludes incidental sales; - Expenditure of residents abroad is included in estimates of imports; - Expenditure of nonresidents in the domestic economy is included in exports; - Valuables are not estimated therefore expenditures on items considered stores of wealth are included in private final consumption expenditure. Recommendations: - Improve the techniques used to compile volume estimates of GDP: - Update the base year of the estimates and formulate plans for regular update of the base year (with a minimum frequency of every five years); and - Discontinue the use of price statistics with outdated base years and develop more appropriate price indices. - Minimize the use of benchmark data and update the benchmarks on a regular basis. *Source: _cr0530 - 1.2 Transparency* ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs ### _cr0530 - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs — Key findings - Estimates of value added for manufacturing and mining are compared with data on exports of manufactured goods and raw materials. - Assessments of intermediate data are conducted when warranted. - The CSO is unable to determine the extent of the statistical discrepancy in the GDP estimates at current prices because not all components of GDP are estimated independently. - PFCE is derived as the difference between the GDP by type of activity and by category of expenditure; PFCE implicitly contains a discrepancy and is deflated, producing a statistical discrepancy in constant price estimates. - The CSO conducted a series of supply and use tables for 1994 to 1999 but these data are not used to investigate the possibility or extent of a discrepancy in the accounts. - Unofficial estimates of GDP are not widely available and the CSO has not conducted comparisons with other unofficial estimates. - Recommendation: - Investigate discrepancies in the data using a Supply and Use Table (SUT) framework. ### 3.5 Revision studies — Key findings and recommendations - Studies and analyses of revisions have not been conducted in a systematic manner. - The CSO, with the help of an external expert, recently undertook a review of the compilation process to determine weaknesses of compilation techniques and data sources and to assess the extent of underestimation of value added. - Recommendation: - Conduct a comprehensive review of the revisions following the next rebasing exercise. ### 4 Serviceability — Periodicity, timeliness, consistency, and revision practice - 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - The CSO compiles GDP estimates on an annual basis, in line with GDDS recommendations. - The CSO disseminates the first set of preliminary GDP estimates within three months following the end of the reference year. The precise date varies, but dissemination is within GDDS guidelines. - 4.2 Consistency - PFCE is derived as a residual; therefore the statistical discrepancy between estimates by type of activity and by category of expenditure is not derived explicitly, making the statistics internally consistent in effect. - Consistent series of estimates of GDP by type of activity and category of expenditure are available from 1994 at current and constant prices. - National accounts statistics are consistent with balance of payments statistics and merchandise trade statistics. - CSO compiles its own estimates on local government activities to derive general government estimates; MOFNP compiles estimates for central government only; therefore the data are not reconcilable. - 4.3 Revision policy and practice - Revisions follow a regular schedule; however, the schedule and the reasons underlying the cycle are not made known to the public. - The CSO compiles provisional GDP estimates before the end of the reference year based on data for the first nine months of the year. - Preliminary data on GDP are disseminated within three months of the end of the reference year. - The data are revised six months after the end of the reference period. - Recommendation: - Disseminate the revision schedule on the CSO website and in publications. - Preliminary data are clearly identified in publications and press releases and users are informed that preliminary data are subject to revision. - The CSO has not conducted an analysis of revisions of the national accounts statistics. ### 5 Accessibility — Data and metadata accessibility, user assistance - 5.1 Data accessibility - National accounts data are published clearly; charts and tables accompany data and publications include notes on methodology and a brief analysis of economic activity. - Datasets are published with varying levels of detail in different publications. - The National Accounts Statistical Bulletin exists; the last publication containing data for 1964–2000 was published in June 2001. - The CSO does not have an established procedure for disseminating national accounts statistics. - Annual GDP estimates are disseminated in the CSO monthly publication, The Monthly, presenting broad estimates of GDP by type of activity for the 14 major industry groups; estimates of GDP by category of expenditure are not disseminated in that publication. - National accounts statistics are not released according to a preannounced schedule; timing varies due to resource constraints. - Preliminary data are presented to policymakers in the MOFNP before public dissemination; data generally become available to users on request, usually 24 hours after submission to the MOFNP. - The Research and Dissemination Branch provides unpublished information on request; requests must be made in writing to the Director of the CSO and are prioritized by time of receipt and difficulty. - Recommendations: - Develop an advance release calendar and disseminate to users. - Publicize the contact point for national accounts statistics by identifying the responsible Branch. - 5.2 Metadata accessibility - The CSO has compiled a four volume series documenting sources and methods: - Volume I Sources and Methods—provides sources and methods used to compile the benchmark estimates; - Volume II Sources and Methods—provides details of the series for 1992–1996, including a brief analysis of the results; - Volume III Sources and Methods—provides the sources of data and methods used to compile preliminary estimates of GDP; and - Volume IV Sources and Methods—presents the computer programs used to capture, process and analyze the national accounts source data. - Summary metadata are presented in the National Accounts Bulletin and metadata are also available on the GDDS Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). - Metadata are presented at varying levels of detail to meet the needs of different user groups. - 5.3 Assistance to users - The national accounts publication lists the street address, facsimile, and telephone numbers of the agency. - Brochures encourage users to contact the Research and Dissemination Branch to obtain CSO publications. - Recommendation: - Publicize the contact point for the national accounts statistics by identifying the responsible Branch that could be contacted if data are required. - The Research and Dissemination Branch produces a catalog of publications listing publications, price, and availability; the catalog is presented on the CSO website, but several publications are out of print. ### Table 1 — Summary of Data Quality Assessment Framework (selected findings) - Prerequisites of quality - No formalized program for data-sharing and coordination; technical committees are non-functional. - Staff resources cannot support compilation of a minimum set of updated accounts on a regular basis. - Relevance of statistics to private sector users not monitored systematically. - Evaluations of timeliness and revisions not conducted. - Assurances of integrity - The Census and Statistics Act gives an individual outside the agency (the Minister) authority to decide the statistics the agency may compile. - Internal government access identified only in the IMF GDDS metadata. - Methodological soundness - The 1968 SNA is used as the framework. - Scope does not fulfill minimum requirements for implementing the 1993 SNA; not all economic activities are covered. - Recommendation from table: Construct SUT and input-output tables for 2000 to 2002. - COICOP not used; final consumption expenditure not disaggregated. Recommendation: Implement ISIC rev.3 in all surveys and tabulations. - Recording of government transactions done on a cash basis. - Accuracy and reliability - Business register outdated; last updated in 1998. - HBS not conducted regularly; establishment surveys not conducted regularly. - Data on local government and extra-budgetary activities not available. - Recommendations include updating the register of establishments using administrative records (especially VAT records from the Zambia Revenue Authority) and re-basing GDP to 2000 based on SUT results. - Serviceability and Accessibility (from table) - Periodicity and timeliness: Practiced. - Consistency: Practiced. - Revision schedule not available to the public. - Detailed publications not produced in a regular, timely manner; advance release calendar not available. - Contact points not precise in publications; subject-specific contact information available in GDDS metadata linked to CSO website. ### Selected legal/operational detail from Price Statistics (CPI) section - The Census and Statistics Act Chapter 425 of the Laws of Zambia 1964 establishes the legal authority for the collection, processing, and dissemination of official statistics in Zambia. - Section 1 of the Census and Statistics Act stipulates that no individual return or information provided to the CSO or its agents under the Act shall be disclosed to any person not covered by the Act without the prior written permission of the respondent. - All CSO employees must take an oath of secrecy; the Act stipulates a penalty equivalent to 3,000 penalty units5 or one year of imprisonment for staff found guilty of disclosure. - The CSO collects CPI data internally; the HBS of 1993/1994 is the main source of current CPI weights. - Data-sharing and coordination across the national statistical system are not systematic; coordination is primarily bilateral and ad hoc. *Italic: Content summarized from _cr0530 - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs (PDF chapter/section).* ### Section 9 of the Census and Statistics Act provides the legal mandate for the collection of ### _cr0530 - Section 9 of the Census and Statistics Act provides the legal mandate for the collection of ### Legal mandate and compliance - Section 9 of the Census and Statistics Act provides the legal mandate for the collection of statistics. - The Act stipulates that any person required to provide information to the Director or his authorized agent must provide the information in the format requested and in a timely manner. - Section 12 establishes penalties for noncompliance: persons who fail to comply with a request to supply information to the CSO is guilty of an offence and liable to a fine not exceeding 1,500 penalty units or to imprisonment for a period not exceeding six months. - A penalty unit is equivalent to 5 kwachas. - CSO practice: There have not been problems with compliance in collection of price data for the CPI; the CSO has fostered a spirit of voluntary cooperation and has not needed to formally apply the mandatory reporting law. ### Price Statistics (Consumer Price Index) — collection practices and staffing - Monthly compilation of the CPI is performed by: - Nine persons at the CSO central office working on the CPI. - 32 enumerators and seven supervisors assigned to the CPI price collection at the regional offices. - Central office qualifications and vacancies: - Three persons at the central office have college degrees and no professional vacancies are currently unfilled. - Some 20 percent of CSO professional vacancies are not filled (indicates recruitment/retention issues). - Training and turnover: - Turnover rate is not seen as a problem, but the CPI program rests on few senior staff members. - The training system within the CSO has been discontinued; only one staff member participated in an international training seminar on compiling price indices (IMF-sponsored in Pretoria, South Africa in 2002). - Survey organization to reduce respondent burden: - Surveys targeting the same units are normally conducted at the same time; questionnaires are merged where feasible to eliminate multiple visits. ### Resources: facilities, computing, and financing - Staff changes and program impacts: - Overall CSO staff decreased from over 1,300 in year 2000 to its current around 650. - Due to lack of funding some vital surveys and statistics have been postponed (Economic census, Household Budget Survey) or discontinued (Wholesale Price Index). - Computing resources and IT infrastructure: - There are only three computers and the over ten years old DOS based software running in DBase used for tabulation. - No central database or network connection between work stations. - Source price data are stored on CDs when hard disk space is about to run out; emergency back-ups are not made regularly. - Central and provincial infrastructure is seen by management to hinder efficient utilization of resources and modern technology. - Financing and budgeting: - CSO submits an annual budget to the MOFNP; release of funds during the year may not be secure and may depend on central government revenue collections. - On many occasions the CSO has had to abandon or streamline planned programs due to shortfall in funding. - Monthly compilation of the CPI has not been seriously affected by financial constraints, but other price programs (including the HBS and the discontinued PPI) suffer from lack of sufficient funding. - CSO has received project-related funding from international organizations; these funds are generally not available for regular statistical programs. - Recommendation: - Update the CPI software when revising the weights next time. This is likely to increase requirements for overall IT infrastructure as well as to allow data to be shared more efficiently at least within the CPI branch staff. ### Efficiency and resource management - Performance reviews and resource allocation: - Public service regulations require periodic staff performance reviews; these are not normally conducted for regular staff. - Performance of field staff is assessed for every major survey and staff remuneration is associated with productivity. - CSO assesses available resources against its work program annually and allocates resources to maximize output; surveys may be streamlined and staff shifted across Departments as needed. ### Relevance and user engagement - Monitoring relevance: - CSO has not conducted recent user surveys or other systematic measures to monitor relevance. - Website and survey instruments provide contact information for user feedback. - Public sector users are encouraged to provide views through bilateral statistics coordinating groups; Research, Dissemination and Data Processing Division planned a user need assessment during the year 2004. - Cooperation with SADC and international organizations brings international needs into management’s knowledge. - User involvement in major surveys: - Ad-hoc and user workshops are formed during planning and execution of large surveys; example: LCMS steering committee with representatives from government, international agencies, academia, and the private sector. - Recommendation: - Carry on planned user need assessments and consider targeting users of subject statistics to better identify current and emerging data needs. ### Quality management and assurance - Quality focus and review: - CSO mission: “timely, relevant and high quality statistical information.” - No systematic and credible program for quality review covering all dimensions of quality. - Tradeoffs exist between financial availability and ability to carry out surveys critical for quality. - Training and internal review: - Training programs for enumerators are organized before every survey. - Director conducts regular meetings with senior staff to review the work program and assess performance. - Internal committees exist to share knowledge across subject areas; no periodic reviews to evaluate quality in statistics. - CSO sometimes receives technical assistance from donor agencies to evaluate quality of current programs. - Planning and feedback: - CSO does not address feedback from users on the quality of statistics in a systematic manner. - Emerging data requirements are not considered in developing the statistical program for the CPI. - Resource availability is actively considered in planning and resources may be shifted to statistical priority areas. ### Assurances of integrity — professionalism, transparency, ethical standards - Professionalism and independence: - As a department of MOFNP, section 7 of the Census and Statistics Act states the Director shall, whenever the Minister directs, collect statistics with respect to such matters as the Minister may prescribe; regulations must exist specifying particulars regarding statistics to be collected. - This implies the Director may not have independence in making compilation decisions; however, the CSO notes this section is not normally enforced and by tradition the Director is the final authority on compilation. - Recruitment and promotion: - Follow public service regulations; staff appointed by the Public Service Commission (PSC) and must meet established criteria. - PSC has established ‘sector specific’ criteria for recruitment depending on Division and tasks. - Choices of sources and techniques: - Choices determined solely by statistical considerations; staff decide on techniques, methodology and data sources to adhere to international standards. - Financial availability affects choice of which surveys/statistics are carried out but does not hinder professional independence once production decisions are made. - Dissemination and commentary: - The Director is solely responsible for disseminating statistics; data are not presented to any other authority within the Ministry of Finance for review or approval before release. - Director is entitled to and has commented on misinterpretation and misuse of statistics in the press; explanations provided during press conferences and meetings with users. - Transparency: - References to the Census and Statistics Act are provided in CSO questionnaires; the Act is available as part of the Laws of Zambia published on the Parliament of Zambia website. - CSO does not distribute copies of the Act nor reference the Parliament’s website. - Survey questionnaires identify the legal authority for data collection and provide contact information for respondents. - There is no internal governmental access to CPI data prior to public release; this policy is explained in press conferences. - Publications and website are clearly identified by the name and contact information of the institution; press releases are signed by the Director and CSO requests attribution when its data are reproduced. - Advance notice of changes: - No advance notices have been given to users of major changes in the index. - CPI market basket and weights have not been revised or methodology changed during the last ten years. - Changes put in place then were explained in an unpublished methodological paper after introduction of the new index. - Recommendation: Publish information on methodological changes e.g., on the CSO website. - Ethical standards: - Staff behavior guided by public service regulations; regulations presented at recruitment and a copy is maintained in the Administrative Division. - The Act requires staff to swear an oath of secrecy not to communicate information acquired during employment without lawful authority. ### Methodological soundness — concepts, scope, classification, recording - Concepts and definitions: - CPI market basket items and weights are based on concepts and definitions of household consumption consistent with the 1993 SNA and the new Consumer Price Index Manual. - All collected prices and expenditure data are based on cash purchase prices. - Expenditure data on goods and services are collected in sufficient detail to permit derivation of item level weights and analysis at different levels. - Scope: - Weights for the CPI market basket are based on expenditure data from the HBS, which covers all types of households regardless of size and income, both urban and rural. - Separate CPI data or major sub-aggregates are compiled for urban low and high income households and rural households. - Households engaged in unincorporated business or farming are included. - Market basket and weights are determined based on solely monetary market transactions; housing services weights include rental and gross acquisition expenditure on housing but exclude imputed rent on owner occupied housing. - Difference between acquisitions and disposals of owner-occupied housing is not reflected in CPI weights; price collection covers only rents. - Own account production of food items and services for consumption and illegal market goods and services are excluded. - Classification/sectorization: - Households and transactions treated broadly consistently with the 1993 SNA. - Tabulation and publication of the CPI is based on the national product classification, which closely follows COICOP. - Plan to move to full COICOP together with other SADC countries is in place. - Zambian CPI uses a combined income level and geographical classification: three sub-aggregates — Metropolitan High Income, Metropolitan Low Income and Non-Metropolitan. - Notes on sub-aggregates: - Using same price data for both high and low income metropolitan groups may level down possible differences between the two. - Rural index includes both high and low income households; composite index is a population weighted average of the three aggregates. - Basis for recording: - Market basket weights and monthly prices are based on market prices including taxes, trade and transportation margins. - Informal discounts (e.g., bargaining) cannot be included; item characteristic detail can be vague (e.g., “low price” or “medium price”). - Recommendation: Pay more attention to the item specification so that the item variants are not unambiguous. - Recording basis: - Both the HBS expenditure data and monthly price survey data are recorded on an accrual basis. - Grossing/netting: - No netting procedures are used; scope considered to cover gross transactions. - Disposals of durable goods are not accounted for in weights, although the HBS would allow for this. - Recommendation: Calculate the weight as the total value of purchases less sales for durable good as well as purchases of housing. *Source: _cr0530 - Section 9 of the Census and Statistics Act provides the legal mandate for the collection of* ### 3. Accuracy and Reliability ### 3. Accuracy and Reliability ### 3.1 Source data - Findings - The weight structure for the CPI market basket is derived solely from the 1993/1994 HBS. - The last two HBSs were conducted in 1975 and 1993/1994. - The 2002/2003 LCMS survey is being analyzed and the results will be used to revise the weights for the CPI during 2004. - The 1993/1994 HBS used sound survey techniques with international donor assistance; it was based on three income groups: Metropolitan High Income (top 20 percent), Metropolitan Low Income, and Non-Metropolitan (all rural households). - The monthly price survey uses a variety of outlet types covering all provinces of Zambia; approximately 15,000 monthly price quotations are collected from over 1,500 outlets for 357 product items in the CPI market basket. - A separate rental survey is carried out for metropolitan areas: sample of 100 housing units per province (300 for Lusaka and Copper belt). - Sampling methods combine cut-off sampling and judgmental selection; broad principles are provided to ensure representativeness. New outlets are added when they increase market share; new goods are not introduced between index revisions. - No ad-hoc surveys are conducted to obtain additional data outside the regular monthly survey. - Recommendations - Implement a clear cycle of household budget surveys to capture the changes in consumer expenditure structure. - Investigate possibilities to move towards scientific sampling. - Search and prepare for additional or complementing data collection methods and sources; this may call for changes in compilation and validation processes and the software used for compilation. ### 3.1.2 Source data definitions, scope, classifications, valuation, and time of recording - Findings - Source data are broadly consistent with CPI needs for scope, classification, valuation, and time of recording. - BOZ weekly prices slightly suggest within-month price fluctuations for some items; the guiding principle of one mid-month price may need reconsideration, especially for some agricultural products. - Recommendation - Investigate the significance of within the reference month price fluctuations and their implications for the monthly CPI. ### 3.1.3 Timeliness of source data - Findings - Monthly price data are collected and processed timely; price data are ready for CPI compilation in less than two weeks from collection. - HBS expenditure data are outdated; no steps have been taken to supplement the data between revisions. Once carried out, processing of HBS results is reasonably timely. - Recommendation - Increase the frequency of HBS and make it a permanent, regular survey to be used for estimation of the CPI weights, for compilation of the NA, and for other indicators. ### 3.2 Assessment of source data - Findings (3.2.1) - Good information and reporting exist on the accuracy of the 1993/1994 HBS; sample errors are not presented in tabulations but statistical rigor and appropriate error adjustments are used in the HBS. - For the monthly price collection, sample variation or other error estimates are not regularly monitored; monitoring focuses on elementary price data for extreme changes and processing errors. - Verification is done by CSO central office staff and enumerators, but in the context of over 15 percent annual inflation and lack of systematic assessment, reliance on individual price quotations may miss temporary or systematic market developments. - Recommendation (3.2.1) - Investigate further means of data accuracy verifications, including cross-regional checks or consistency checks between enumerators. ### 3.3 Statistical techniques - Findings (3.3.1) - CPI software prompts users for unusual changes; the only adjustment method is automated recalculation of the base price used for temporary missing prices, item substitutions (overlap method and at introduction of a substitute item), and expected quality change. - Imputation of base prices for January 1993 is based on either the item’s own price history (substitute overlap) or average price movement of other varieties (substitute no overlap). No other information is used to adjust prices. - New goods or services are not introduced into the market basket between index revisions; permanently unavailable varieties are replaced with similar ones, which may introduce bias if relative prices differ. - Quality adjustments use the same base price adjustment as variety substitutions; monthly price change limits are relatively high and small quality-related price changes may go undetected. - Extensive use of recalculation of base price based on averages from January 1993 is problematic given that average prices have increased ten to twenty fold over the period; sensitivity to the adjustment method increases as the base price period recedes in time. - Recommendations (3.3.1) - Implement procedures for using other available data for adjusting quality changes and item changes; this may require replacement of the CPI software with a more flexible one. - Implement procedures for the introduction of new products into the market basket between index revisions. - Update the price reference period and the index reference periods more frequently. - Findings (3.3.2) - The CPI uses averages of long-term price relatives as the elementary aggregate formula; aggregation across districts and provinces uses arithmetic averages of elementary aggregate price relatives for each of three major sub-aggregates. - National level item group and overall aggregation use the modified Laspeyres formula with fixed expenditure shares from 1993/1994 HBS. Price reference period is January 1993; expenditure shares are inflated by the CPI to January 1994 prices; index reference period is year 1994. - In the context of over 30 percent overall annual inflation during the last ten years and no weight revisions during that period, fixed expenditure shares may have become unrepresentative. - Recommendations (3.3.2) - Use geometric averages for the elementary aggregate formula. - Either revise the index more often or adjust the weights frequently to better reflect consumer behavior. If more frequent comprehensive HBS are not feasible, conduct regular small scale surveys to update the weights. ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - Findings (3.4.1) - CPI estimates are not systematically validated against other data currently. - Potential validation sources include international market prices, Export Board of Zambia (EBZ) price data, BOZ Weekly Price Survey data, or other countries’ data as benchmarks. - Recommendation (3.4.1) - Implement systematic validation checks, e.g., for agricultural products. - Findings (3.4.2) - Only immediate source data is validated; lack of intermediate data assessment may allow regional special market conditions to go undetected. - Findings (3.4.3) - Differences between the three major sub-aggregate indices are not regularly investigated; the three series move very closely together despite referring loosely to different household income groups. ### 3.5 Revision studies - Findings (3.5.1) - CPI data are final upon release; there are no revision studies of published index data. - Analysis for weight revisions is conducted when a new HBS is carried out and results are published. - Recommendation (3.5.1) - Investigate, primarily for internal use, how updating the weights in historic price data affects item group and overall index aggregates. --- ### 4 Serviceability ### 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - Findings (4.1.1) - The CPI is compiled and published monthly, meeting GDDS recommendations. - Findings (4.1.2) - Timeliness is better than the GDDS recommendation of one to two months after the reference period. - CPI data are published on the last Thursday of the reference month, coinciding with the publication of The Monthly. ### 4.2 Consistency - Findings (4.2.1) - The three major sub-aggregate CPIs are calculated from item and product class indices over districts and provinces so that each of the three series is consistent across geography. Composite CPI is a weighted average of the three sub-aggregate indices using expenditure weights for each domain; same weights are used for lower level aggregates. - Findings (4.2.2) - To obtain a consistent historical series, CSO links the current 1994 = 100 index to the previous index with base year 1985 by using January 1993 value of the old index as a link; main series are also calculated from year 1975. - During the last revision in 1994, a new index calculation methodology was implemented, including a change in the elementary aggregate formula; long historical index series were recalculated backward using new weights. - Findings (4.2.3) - CPI estimates are used in national accounts compilation and in BOZ’s internal weekly inflation indicator. - Other related price statistics programs within CSO have been discontinued since 1998. ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - Findings (4.3.1) - The monthly CPI is not revised and this policy is not explicitly stated. - There is no clear schedule for revising CPI market basket items and weights; revisions occur only when new comprehensive HBSs are conducted, and occurrence of these surveys has depended on donor assistance. - Plans for conducting HBS every three to five years have been proposed but not decided. - CPI central office staff began work on CPI revision using 2002/2003 HBS results and should complete the revision during year 2004; the new index reference will be 2004. - Recommendation (4.3.1) - Implement a credible plan for revising the CPI coinciding with the HBS schedule. - Findings (4.3.2) - CPI data are final upon release and no preliminary data are published. - Findings (4.3.3) - There are no CPI revision studies made public; effects of changes in CPI market basket weights would be useful information even if published CPI data are not revised. --- ### 5 Accessibility ### 5.1 Data accessibility - Findings (5.1.1) - CPI is first disseminated as a press release and an accompanying monthly CPI publication. The press release includes the annual inflation rate as a chart and short descriptive text listing major changes and contributions of major item groups. - Accompanying data present long index series and monthly and annual inflation rates for last three years for the three major aggregates: Metropolitan Low and High Income and Non Metropolitan, as well as the composite. - Previous chart presentations focused on previous 12 months and emphasized short-term fluctuations; recent improvements present long-term trends and annual inflation rates in charts. Seasonally adjusted series are not calculated for composite nor any sub-aggregate level. - The term “inflation” is used to refer to all price changes in CSO publications and may be confusing to the public. - Findings (5.1.2) - The press release is disseminated at a press conference and posted on the CSO website; a hardcopy of Consumer Price Index is available from CSO. Unpublished detailed series are available upon request. - On release day CSO also publishes The Monthly (free) which includes the composite CPI and some average prices. - Quarterly Digest including CPI estimates was discontinued in 2001 and data are released only monthly. - Findings (5.1.3) - There is no pre-announced schedule, although since April 2003 the CPI has been disseminated on the last Thursday of the reference month and this schedule has been strictly followed; CSO plans to publish a release schedule on its website. - Recommendation (5.1.3) - Publish a release calendar for the CPI. - Findings (5.1.4) - CSO states CPI data are released to all users simultaneously at the monthly press conference; management emphasizes not releasing CPI data in advance but no specific embargo steps are taken. Release of sensitive data without authorization is prohibited by the Census and Statistics Act. - Findings (5.1.5) - More detailed CPI breakdowns are not routinely released but long time series and some average price data are made available upon written request to the dissemination unit of the CSO; availability of more information has not been made publicly known despite contact information being included in the CPI publication. *Source: _cr0530 - 3. Accuracy and Reliability* ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility ### 5.2.1 Documentation on concepts, scope, classifications, and basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques - A comprehensive manual, Methods and Procedures for the Compilation of the Consumer Price Index, provides detailed documentation of the CPI, including: - description of price collection and index tabulation process; - information on source data, weighting structure, imputation methods; - explanation of techniques used to calculate elementary aggregates; - explanation of the aggregation formula and discussion of alternative weighting patterns (which may leave the reader unclear as to which method is actually used); - a comprehensive step-by-step example of index calculation and a price collection form. - Publication on the HBS methodology is published, although not cross referenced. - The CPI manual is not available to the public. Only a short description of the GDDS metadata is available on IMF’s website. - Recommendation: - Use the existing material to disseminate more metadata on various levels of detail e.g., with the publication or on the CSO website (Same for 5.2.2). ### 5.2.2 Levels of detail are adapted to the needs of the intended audience - Only the above-mentioned CPI manual is prepared but no information is disseminated. - The press release and monthly publication include: - the Metropolitan city list; - the index reference year; - a statement that the prices refer to mid-month prices. - To educate different users on methodology and compilation of the CPI, the CSO could provide simple examples of calculation and use of the CPI and its methodology. ### 5.3 Assistance to users (related accessibility context) - 5.3.1 Contact points for each subject field are publicized: - All statistical products of the CSO include telephone number, facsimile number (all of the directors of the CSO), mailing address, a general CSO info e-mail address, and the CSO website address. - CSO policy: all contacts are handled centrally by the dissemination unit, which manages the CSO website and dissemination of all publications; hence, each subject field does not have specific contact information. - Each enquiry is required in writing and passed to the appropriate person responsible for the given statistics. - Unpublished data are available only upon written request to the Information Department. - Assistance to users is not monitored or information from the requests explored, but the Dissemination unit records all requests. - 5.3.2 Catalogs of publications, documents, and other services, including information on any charges, are widely available: - A catalog of CSO publications, including sale prices for products, is available from the CSO library or the Dissemination unit. - Many publications are out of print and an insufficient number of e.g., CPI publications is printed. - Recommendation: - Exploit the internet as a cost-effective distribution channel of CSO publications and other information. ### Data Quality Assessment Framewor k (July 2003): summary findings relevant to metadata/accessibility and related quality elements - Table summary: Data Quality Assessment Framework for Consumer Price Index (Compiling Agency: Central Statistical Office) - Key to symbols: NA = Not Applicable; O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO = Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not Observed; SDDS = Complies with SDDS Criteria - Selected assessment entries and comments (as presented): - 0. Prerequisites of quality - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: X — There is no formal and systematic program for data-sharing and coordination in place. - 0.2 Resources: X — Computer software and IT infrastructure are not up to date. Production and dissemination of statistics is dependent on key persons. Design a new CPI system based on Microsoft SQL 2000 and SAS. Currently the CPI system is operated in Dbase IV. - 0.3 Relevance: X — User surveys are not conducted. - 0.4 Other quality management: X — There are no periodic reviews to evaluate quality in statistics. - 1. Assurances of integrity - 1.1 Professionalism: X — The Census and Statistics Act gives an individual outside agency the authority to decide on the statistics the agency may compile. - 1.2 Transparency: X — No advance notice is given for major changes in the index. - 1.3 Ethical standards: X - 2. Methodological soundness - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: X - 2.2 Scope: X — Gross weights are used for housing and durable goods acquisitions. - 2.3 Classification/sectorization: X - 2.4 Basis for recording: X — Sales of durable consumer goods are not netted out of for the CPI weights. - 3. Accuracy and reliability - 3.1 Source data: X — New goods are not added to the index and scientific sampling methods are partially used. The weight data are outdated. - 3.2 Assessment of source data: X — Validation processes could be improved. - 3.3 Statistical techniques: X — Index formula could be changed and methods to account for quality changes and missing price should be investigated. Develop a new CPI, based on the results of the 2002/2003 LCMS to revise the weights, product/outlet samples, and the base period. - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs: X — There is no systematic process to validate intermediate data or discrepancies in statistical outputs. - 3.5 Revision studies: X — No studies are prepared except for the HBS results. - 4. Serviceability - 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness: X - 4.2 Consistency: X - 4.3 Revision policy and practice: X — General HBS studies are published but not ones specific to the CPI. - 5. Accessibility - 5.1 Data accessibility: X — No advance release calendar. - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: X — Apart from the GDDS website, very little information is made publicly available. - 5.3 Assistance to users: X — Only general contact point is given. *Prepared from the content of the source document.* ### 1. Assurance of integrity ### 1. Assurance of integrity ### Professionalism - Accounting system regulations issued by the MOFNP provide for the strict application of accounting principles and control mechanisms. - Fiscal statistics are compiled on an impartial basis using available sources, mainly data generated by the accounting system. - Professionalism is actively promoted within the MOFNP: staff encouraged and assisted to further their studies and on-the-job training; staff afforded opportunities to attend seminars, workshops, and courses. - Compilers of fiscal statistics have full access to domestic budget execution data. - No statistical techniques are used in the compilation of the government data, since all the data currently disseminated are obtained from actual accounting records. - Staff of the MOFNP is understood to be free from political or other influence in choosing sources and methods for compiling budget execution data. - Comments on erroneous interpretation and misuse of fiscal data are addressed through formal channels within the MOFNP; MOFNP officials provide advice and explanations to other agencies for incorporation in publications. - Dissemination of fiscal data in the Financial Report and other agencies’ publications is accompanied by an analysis of government finance outcomes to minimize misuse or erroneous interpretation. ### Transparency - The Finance (Control and Management) Act and subsidiary legislation are available to the public in hard copy and on the Internet (www.parliament.gov.zm); these documents contain the general terms and conditions under which government finance data are compiled and reported. - No other documentation describing the process of collection, processing, and dissemination is available to the public in hard copy or electronically. - Recommendation: Establish a website for the MOFNP and disseminate the general terms and conditions under which government finance data are compiled and reported. - Monthly reports on domestic budgetary central government operations are compiled primarily for internal government financial management purposes. - The BOZ’s access to government data prior to dissemination is not made public. - MOFNP publications are clearly identified as such; MOFNP information in BOZ publications is accompanied by a footnote disclosing MOFNP as the source. - No advance notice is given of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques. ### Ethical standards - All government employees are subject to the Public Service Regulations, which describe conditions of employment, the code of conduct, and disciplinary procedures. - The Finance (Control and Management) Act and Treasury Instructions govern the code of conduct of accounting officers, specifying responsibilities, authority, and accountability. *Source: _cr0530 - 1. Assurance of integrity* ### 2. Methodological Soundness ### Concepts and definitions - Assessment relates to GFSM 1986 because Zambia has not yet adopted the GFSM 2001. - Zambia uses nationally developed concepts and definitions, adhering loosely to the concepts and definitions of the GFSM 1986 to compile and disseminate fiscal data for the domestic operations of the budgetary central government by the MOFNP. - Annual and monthly fiscal data cover activities of the domestic operations of the budgetary central government, which include the nine provincial administrations treated as part of the budgetary central government in the same manner as a line ministry. - Fiscal data disseminated by the MOFNP excludes foreign grants and related expenditure. - The MOFNP does not compile GFS and has not adopted a “migration path” from GFSM 1986 to GFSM 2001. - The CSO, with IMF technical assistance, is in the process of compiling GFS for the domestic operations of the budgetary central government for 2001 in the GFSM 2001 framework. - Authorities are starting to implement an Integrated Financial Management Information System to improve source data availability and assist GFS compilation. - Distinction between domestic and foreign debt is based on residency criteria of the IMF’s BPM5. - Recommendation: Adopt the concepts and definitions of the GFSM 2001. ### Scope - Neither the MOFNP nor the CSO compiles or disseminates GFS for the consolidated central or general government. - Scope of disseminated fiscal data is limited to domestic budgetary central government units (including provincial administrations) and excludes foreign grants received and related expenditure, extra budgetary units, and local authorities. - Data are presented according to a national analytical framework and do not cover the full scope recommended in the GFSM 1986. - Financial information on receipt and expenditure of foreign grants by the central government is not available to compilers; MOFNP cannot disseminate fiscal data or GFS for the consolidated budgetary central government because of this lack. - No financial information is available on statutory agencies and local governments; transfers to statutory agencies and local government are treated as a block transfer in disseminated information. - Recommendation: Broaden the scope to general government operations to include foreign grants received by the central government and subsequent expenditure, extra budgetary institutions, and local governments. ### Classification/sectorization - Data on domestic operations are not fully consistent with GFSM 1986 classification. - Nine provincial administrations treated as part of the budgetary central government in the same manner as a line ministry. - Classification of domestic revenue, expenditure, and financing loosely follows GFSM 1986 but differs in significant ways: Revenue and grants - Data on domestic revenue distinguish between tax revenue and non-tax revenue. - Tax revenue is classified according to GFSM 1986; non-tax revenue includes capital revenue, privatization receipts, and loans repaid to government. - Grants from foreign donor agencies are excluded from disseminated fiscal data. Expenditure - Expenditure data are based on releases from the MOFNP to line ministries and do not capture actual expenditure. - Expenditure on arrears is recorded in line with a cash system; disseminated information does not provide a division between current and capital expenditure. - Current expenditure excludes all expenditure made by line ministries from funds received from donor agencies. - Certain transfers (e.g., cost of fertilizers to households) are excluded from transfers and incorporated under other current expenditure. - Other current expenditure includes all transactions specifically identified for tracking for policy purposes. - Capital expenditure excludes all expenditure by line ministries from funds directly received from donor agencies; disseminated capital expenditure data do not provide detail on type of expenditure. Net lending - Loan repayments to government and proceeds from privatization are not recorded as net lending but included in non-tax revenue. - GFSM 1986 recommends government receipts reducing equity be recorded as repayment of lending. Financing - No comprehensive information on government financing is disseminated. - Monthly publication on domestic operations provides some information on domestic financing of capital expenditure and interest payments. - Recommendation: Adopt a classification system consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. ### Basis for recording - Debt liabilities recorded at face value in accordance with GFSM 1986. - Transactions in foreign currencies converted to Zambian Kwacha (ZK) using the official exchange rate prevailing at the time of the transactions or according to contract agreement. - Stock of foreign debt converted using the exchange rate prevailing at the end of the period to which it refers. - Domestic operations are largely recorded on a cash basis in accordance with GFSM 1986. - Tax and non-tax revenue recorded when deposits are made at the BOZ. - In disseminated MOFNP expenditure analysis, expenditure is recorded when funding or transfer to a line ministry takes place, not at time of actual expenditure. - Grossing/netting procedures broadly adhere to GFSM 1986: payments and receipts treated on a gross basis; corrective transactions on tax refunds and expenditure recovered correctly netted. - Net lending not treated in line with international standards because repayments of loans to government or privatization receipts are not netted against new loans made by government. - Recommendation: Include the actual expenditure of government in the disseminated tables. *Source: _cr0530 - 1. Assurance of integrity* ### 3. Accuracy and Reliability ### Source data - Complete source data are not available to compile comprehensive central government and general government operations according to the GFSM. - Source data available only for domestic operations of the budgetary central government. - Data collection programs are comprehensive for revenue and expenditure of the domestic operations of the budgetary central government accounts, but fiscal data lack foreign financed operations related to foreign grants. - Data collection programs to obtain source data from statutory agencies and local governments are not available. - Source data obtained from administrative records generated by accounting systems in the MOFNP. - ZRA compiles detailed tax revenue data from administrative records. - Data on domestic and foreign debt financing are available from IDM’s administrative records (kept for compilation and dissemination of outstanding government debt) though not disseminated. ### Source data assessment - Detailed source data for revenue and expenditure of domestic operations are largely consistent with GFSM 1986 definitions, time of recording, and valuation. - Source data on actual expenditure of line ministries can be obtained from Office of the Accountant General records but are not used in MOFNP disseminated tables. - Source data are timely but available only in hard copy. - For CSO compilation of GFS, CSO relies on report of the Auditor General that becomes available 18 months after the end of the reference period. ### Assessment of source data procedures - No automated procedures exist to monitor accuracy of data reported by ZRA or line ministries. - MOFNP, BOZ, and ZRA regularly meet to reconcile MOFNP data with records of other agencies. - MOFNP reconciles the balance in the Accountant General’s account for domestic operations with BOZ records. ### Statistical techniques - Fiscal data compilation for domestic operations is based on administrative records; no statistical techniques are employed. - Monthly and annual data disseminated in the Macroeconomic Indicators publication are not replaced when final expenditure data become available. - No other statistical procedures or techniques are employed to make source data consistent with GFS; no bridge tables constructed linking national chart of accounts with GFS classification. ### Validation and discrepancy handling - Intermediate results cannot generally be validated from secondary sources because source data are not available elsewhere; reliance on administrative records minimizes inconsistencies. - Validations performed include reconciliation of the Accountant General’s bank account balance between government books and BOZ, and reconciliation of interest payments on foreign debt. - Reconciliations between MOFNP, BOZ, and ZRA are routinely conducted; discrepancies are investigated before fiscal data dissemination. ### Revisions - No revision studies are conducted by the MOFNP. - Disseminated monthly and annual data are not revised, even when audited accounts become available. - Recommendation: Implement revision studies and replace preliminary data with actual data when these data become available. *Source: _cr0530 - 1. Assurance of integrity* ### 4. Serviceability ### Periodicity and timeliness - Periodicity for selected aggregates of revenue, expenditure, and domestic financing is monthly and annual for domestic operations of the budgetary central government; this exceeds the GDDS recommendation to disseminate quarterly data on budgetary central government operations. - Zambia meets the GDDS periodicity recommendation for central government debt by publishing outstanding domestic debt according to instrument and foreign debt according to holder semiannually; the GDDS recommended practice is to publish annual data with appropriate breakdowns (currency, maturity, debt holder, and instrument) as relevant. - Timeliness: domestic budgetary central government operations data are disseminated one month after the end of the reference period, exceeding the GDDS recommendation on timeliness of one quarter. - Timeliness of central government domestic and foreign debt data published in the Economic Report of the MOFNP is within one month after the reference period, exceeding the GDDS recommendation of timeliness of one-two quarters after the end of the reference period. *Source: _cr0530 - 1. Assurance of integrity* ### 4.2 Consistency ### 4.2 Consistency ### 4.2.1 Statistics are consistent within the dataset - Monthly and annual fiscal data on the domestic operations of the budgetary central government in the publications are consistent within the dataset. - Owing to a lack of a comprehensive set of GFS tables, it is impossible to assess the consistency of GFS. ### 4.2.2 Statistics are consistent or reconcilable over a reasonable period of time - Many annual time series exist in the Macroeconomic Indicators publication of the MOFNP covering the period 1990–2003. - There is no evidence of any changes in methodology or source data to indicate that these time series are not consistent over this time period. ### 4.2.3 Statistics are consistent or reconcilable with those obtained through other data sources and/or statistical frameworks - The dataset on budgetary central government operations serves as input into the national accounts estimates for the government sector compiled by the CSO. - National accounts data are supplemented with information on statutory agencies and local government finances obtained from other sources. - The dataset for domestic budgetary central government operations and the monetary survey cannot be reconciled, owing to broader coverage of government in the monetary survey. - The monetary survey includes all the central government accounts in their claims against the government. - The MOFNP does reconcile the balance in the Accountant General’s bank account for the domestic operations of the budgetary central government with the Accountant General’s account in the books of the BOZ. ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice ### 4.3.1 Revisions follow a regular and transparent schedule - No revisions are made to replace preliminary data with final data. - Revisions are performed only in cases where an amount was incorrectly disseminated. - Revisions of incorrectly disseminated amounts are accompanied by a footnote to the table. ### 4.3.2 Preliminary and/or revised data are clearly identified - Monthly data are clearly identified as preliminary. - Annual data, which are a summation of the monthly data, are not identified as preliminary. ### 4.3.3 Studies and analyses of revisions are made public - Because preliminary data are not revised, when final data become available, no studies and analysis of revisions are undertaken. ### 5 Accessibility ### 5.1 Data accessibility Findings - The MOFNP presents fiscal data for the domestic operations of budgetary central government in the monthly, semiannual, and annual reports. - The layout and classification of the data follows budget guidelines rather than the international accepted standard, which result in difficulties with international comparability. - Information presented in the budget documents can be compared with information contained in the annual budget of government. - Statistics are thus presented in a way suitable for a limited audience for use in monitoring progress made with government finances and policy execution. Dissemination media and formats - Fiscal data on the domestic operations of the budgetary central government are only disseminated in a hardcopy format obtainable directly from MOFNP. - Monthly, semi-annual, and annual reports published only in a hard copy format by the MOFNP can be obtained from the MOFNP. - Such dissemination media seriously limit access to users outside Lusaka. Recommendation - Increase the venue of data dissemination to ease the accessibility of the information by the public, such as, through a website. Release schedule and access - Annual data on government finances are released at the time of the Minister of Finance’s budget speech to parliament. - The date of the budget speech is pre-announced and would normally be presented to parliament on the last Friday in January of each year. - Monthly data, which are released in a publication of the MOFNP, are not released according to a preannounced schedule. - Data on domestic budgetary central government operations are not released to all users at the same time, because these data are discussed in the Data Monitoring Committee and the Monetary Policy Committee, which can take place before the release of the publications. - The fact that this information is not released to all users at the same time is not explicitly made public. - Non-published (but nonconfidential) data are made available upon request; however, this service is not publicized. ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility Findings - MOFNP does not disseminate metadata. - Metadata describing the central government operations and the central government debt are only disseminated on the Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) of the IMF. - The DSBB metadata can be accessed through a hyperlink on the CSO website. - These metadata contain brief descriptions of concepts and classifications in use and broadly describe differences with international practice. - Metadata revisions, in principle, follow the annual cycle mandated by the GDDS, but there are delays. Recommendation - Publish the metadata describing the central government operations and the central government debt. Additional detail - No detailed technical descriptions of the methodology and compilation practices, other than those disseminated on the DSBB, are available to the public. ### 5.3 Assistance to users Contact points and publications - The monthly Macroeconomic Indicators publication identifies a general contact point for further information. - The contact persons for central government operations and debt data are disseminated only on the metadata pages of the DSBB. - Although a catalog is not available of MOFNP publications, information on documents and other services, including information on any charges, can be obtained by contacting the MOFNP. Recommendation - Dissemination of data to be broadened by creating a website for the MOFNP. - Disseminate a statement on the methodology used for the compilation of fiscal data. *Source: _cr0530 - 4.2 Consistency (IMF PDF content unit).* ### 0.3 Relevance ### 0.3 Relevance ### 0.3.1 Monitoring relevance and user needs - The BOZ uses committees or seminars for reviewing the relevance of existing monetary statistics, including: - the weekly Monetary Policy Committee, - the weekly Data Monitoring Committee, - the fortnightly Economic Monitoring Committee, - the monthly Monetary Policy Committee, and - the half-yearly Monetary Policy Advisory Committee (including independent members outside the government). - Committee participants come from BOZ, CSO, MOFNP, and other government agencies. - BOZ organizes outreach seminars to monitor needs of users outside government: - monthly seminars for the chief executives of commercial banks, - quarterly seminars for the media and chief executives of nonbank financial institutions, - half-yearly seminar for the Members of Parliament. - Gaps in user engagement: - The BOZ does not hold regular user meetings for monetary statistics. - The BOZ does not conduct regular user surveys for monetary statistics. - Past user-survey activity: - Forms of the user survey for the 2004 ROSC mission were sent to respondents of the Quarterly Survey of Business Opinions and Expectations with the answer sheets. - International engagement: - Staff of the Information and Statistics Division has participated in the Irving Fisher Committee of the International Statistical Institute since 2000. - Recommendation: - Conduct user surveys and meetings on a regular basis. ### 0.4 Other quality management — processes and quality focus - Documentation and methodology: - The Economics Department Manual: Computation and Compilation Guidelines (latest version is September 2003) covers methodologies and formulae used. - Adherence to the methodologies of the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM) is being pursued following the IMF mission of June–July 2003. - Improvement of monetary statistics quality is to be assessed through review of implementation of BOZ’s Strategic Plan, 2004-07. - Quality monitoring processes: - Quality monitored through internal and external meetings listed above (weekly Monetary Policy Committee, weekly Data Monitoring Committee, fortnightly Economic Monitoring Committee, monthly Monetary Policy Committee, half-yearly Monetary Policy Advisory Committee). - Source data sent through the data collection system are automatically cross-checked; discrepancies/excessive variations are checked by the Economics Department and Bank Supervision Department. - Verification involves checking data sources with reporting institutions and consistency with BOZ guidelines. - Consistency between monetary and other data (cross-border capital flow and public finance) is checked within the Economics Department. - Data releases are reviewed and authorized by the Director of the Economics Department. - Tradeoffs in planning: - BOZ recognizes tradeoffs among dimensions of quality (e.g., between timeliness and accuracy/reliability). - High priority is assigned to ensuring the timeliness of monetary data. - Consequence: nonbank financial institutions (the Building Societies and the National Savings and Credit Bank) are excluded from the monetary survey because they cannot meet the monthly reporting requirement to report balance sheet data within ten working days after the reference month. - This exclusion has delayed expansion of the monetary survey to include all relevant entities. ### 1. Assurances of integrity — Professionalism, transparency, ethics - Professionalism - The Staff Handbook and a departmental code of conduct spell out professional duties; BOZ has a strong culture of professionalism and the Strategic Plan explicitly strives for professional independence. - Recruitment and assignment structure ensure professionalism (e.g., economist position requires at least bachelor degree in economics). - Economics Department tasked with conducting and disseminating research; accurate monetary statistics are seen as the foundation for research work. - Choice of sources follows international standards; monetary survey compiled from BOZ’s and commercial banks’ accounting data. - No use of statistical techniques is involved in monetary statistics compilation. - The Public Relations Office monitors media for misuse; BOZ required to respond within forty-eight hours in accordance with the Code of Conduct. - Transparency - The Bank of Zambia Act and the Banking and Financial Services Act (authorizing BOZ to collect and publish monetary data and stipulating confidentiality obligations) are accessible on the website. - Detailed terms and conditions for collection, compilation, and dissemination of monetary statistics are not available to users. - Recommendation: Prepare and publish detailed terms and conditions for data collection, compilation, and dissemination. - Internal government access: - The government, especially the MOFNP, generally has access to monetary data prior to their release in BOZ’s publications and on BOZ’s website due to time lag between approval and public release. - This prior access is not publicly known or described in the GDDS metadata. - Recommendation: Provide information regarding internal government access policy to the public, including who have prior access and how long before general release to the public. - Products are clearly identified as BOZ statistical products in BOZ publications. - BOZ gives advance notice of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques (example: separate category for commercial banks’ claims on households created from January 1998; circular and press announcement in December 1997). BOZ plans advance notice when converting the monetary survey into the depository corporation’s survey per MFSM. - Ethical standards - All BOZ staff required to abide by the Code of Conduct (updated and circulated by the Human Resource Department); departmental codes submitted to management for approval. - BOZ posts a motto reminding staff to be honest and sincere. ### 2. Methodological soundness — Concepts, scope, classification, recording - Concepts and definitions - The BOZ analytical framework is broadly consistent with the MFSM. - Monetary survey consolidates BOZ accounts and commercial banks accounts; key aggregates identified include net foreign assets, net claims to the central government, net claims on public enterprises, claims on private enterprises, claims on households, claims on nongovernmental/nonprofit institutions, claims on nonbank financial institutions, and broad money (currency outside banks and demand deposits, as well as savings, time, and foreign currency deposits). - For the central bank, reserve money aggregates are identified based on BOZ accounts. - The monetary survey refers to the concept recommended in the IMF’s draft Guide to Money and Banking Statistics in International Financial Statistics of December 1984; MFSM recommends use of the “depository corporations’ survey” term and concept. - The Information and Statistics Division is shifting from the monetary survey to the depository corporations’ survey; the depository corporations’ survey has already been compiled and used internally. - Recommendation: Publish the depository corporations’ survey, instead of the monetary survey. - Scope - The monetary survey covers a major portion of depository corporation operations but not completely as recommended by the MFSM. - Current coverage: BOZ and commercial banks. - Exclusions: Building Societies and the National Savings and Credit Bank (nonbank financial institutions that accept deposits and should be included per MFSM). - Monetary survey does not include all banks in liquidation; instruments of banks in liquidation continue economic existence until liquidation and therefore should be included. - Recommendation: Include the Building Societies and the National Savings and Credit Bank, as well as all banks in liquidation in the depository corporations’ survey. - Classification/sectorization - Sectorization distinguishes between nonresident and resident sectors, but legal residential status remains the main criterion and residency concept from BPM5 (center of economic interest) is not strictly applied. - Resident sector subdivision lacks sufficient detail for sectoral distribution of domestic credit; current resident subcategories: 1. central government, 2. public enterprises, 3. private enterprises, 4. households, 5. nongovernmental/nonprofit institutions, 6. banks, and 7. nonbank financial institutions. - Local government is not separately identified; distinction between depository corporations and other financial corporations is lacking. - A project is underway to introduce the detailed sectorization scheme prescribed in the MFSM. - Delineation among money issuers, money holders, and central government is broadly consistent with MFSM, but local governments are not classified as money holders and their deposits are excluded from monetary aggregates (netted out from claims on the government). - Financial instrument classification broadly conforms to MFSM; data separately identify: 1. Monetary gold and Special Drawing Rights, 2. Currency and deposits, 3. Securities other than shares, 4. Loans, and 5. Other assets/liabilities. - Missing instrument categories: (6) Shares and other equity (asset side), (7) Insurance technical reserves (asset side), and (8) Financial derivatives. - Securities repurchase agreements (repos) are not classified as loans but are included in other assets/liabilities. - Recommendation: Reclassify local governments as money holders and reclassify repos as loans. - Basis for recording - Valuation: - Monetary gold valued at market prices. - Loans valued at current book value without adjustment for expected loan losses. - Securities other than shares are recorded at issue price despite market price fluctuations. - Foreign-currency denominated assets and liabilities converted at end-period mid-point rate; Fund accounts revalued only annually in BOZ accounts. - MFSM recommends compiling stocks and three separate flow components—transactions, revaluations, and other changes in the volume of assets—but BOZ does not compile these components (e.g., exchange rate effects are not identified as revaluations; write-offs of loans are not identified as other changes in volume). - Recommendation: Value securities at market price or market price equivalents. - Recording basis: - Accrual accounting is used; accrued interest is identified in original accounting records. - MFSM recommends adding accrued interest to underlying financial instruments and sectorizing by debtor/creditor sector; BOZ currently includes accrued interest in other assets and liabilities. - Recommendation: Add accrued interest to the underlying instruments, especially for treasury bills. - Grossing/netting: - Assets and liabilities of BOZ and commercial banks are generally collected and compiled on a gross basis. - Exception: BOZ’s accounts in overdraft are netted against BOZ’s deposit liabilities but should be classified as loans. - In the monetary surveys, claims on the central government are netted against liabilities to the central government, and foreign assets and liabilities are netted out per MFSM. - Netting is also applied to local governments in Zambia’s monetary survey, which is not in line with MFSM methodologies. - Recommendation: Record overdrafts on a gross basis, without netting out from deposits. ### 3. Accuracy and reliability — Source data and timeliness - Source data programs - Central bank source data: trial balance prepared by BOZ’s Finance Department on a daily basis; predetermined classification of accounts generated by a computerized ledger system based on complete recording. - Commercial banks source data: individual returns collected monthly; report form filled by every bank and submitted to BOZ’s Bank Supervision Department with a copy to the Economics Department (hard copy, fax, or electronic mail). - Reporting format provides sufficient detail to compile the monetary survey in conformity with MFSM guidelines. - Monthly returns of the Building Societies and the National Savings and Credit Bank (same format as commercial banks) are submitted to the Nonbank Supervision Department with a copy to the Economics Department. - No supplementary data needed for reserve money aggregates and monetary survey; source data are kept under periodic reviews to ensure comprehensiveness. - Source data adequacy - Source data broadly approximate the required definitions, scope, classifications, valuation, and time of recording. - Issues: - Establishing residency/non-residency can be difficult (e.g., deposits of foreign nationals who started to reside in Zambia); commercial banks are advised to use simple rules (e.g., local address for small deposit accounts) rather than BPM5 residency criteria. - Classification details in report forms are inadequate: repos are included in open market operations liabilities in the BOZ trial balance and not separately identified as loans; financial derivatives are treated as off-balance sheet transactions in both BOZ trial balance and commercial bank returns. - Recommendation: Apply more strict rules to determine the residency of entities in the commercial banks return and create a separate category for repos in the BOZ trial balance. - Timeliness - BOZ trial balance compiled daily; components of reserve money aggregates transferred to the Economics Department with a lag of one working day. - Commercial bank returns (including those for banks in liquidation) are submitted monthly with a lag of ten working days. - These arrangements enable reserve money aggregates to be compiled within five days and the monetary survey to be compiled within one month. - For analytical accounts, Economics Department obtains the entire BOZ trial balance ten days after the relevant month to allow Finance Department review/revision of end-of-month outstanding amounts. - Building Societies and the National Savings and Credit Bank are required to submit monthly returns with a lag of ten working days; slippage of several days can occur. *Source: _cr0530 - 0.3 Relevance* ### 3.2 Assessment of source data ### 3.2 Assessment of source data ### 3.2 Assessment practices and monitoring - Source data (censuses, sample surveys, administrative records) are routinely assessed for coverage, sample error, response error, and nonsampling error; results are monitored and made available to guide statistical processes. - The Bank of Zambia (BOZ) receives questions on monetary data from several users (Government of Zambia, the press, the research community, international organizations); responses are prepared by the staff of the Economics Department and used to monitor accuracy of the monetary survey and its source data. - Current assessment of out-of-trend possibility in source data: - Conducted mainly through eye-ball testing and calculation of growth rates of outstanding stocks. - Data validation procedures will be automated when the AREMOS database comes into use. ### 3.3 Statistical techniques - Data compilation procedures: - Minimize processing errors such as coding, editing, and tabulation errors. - The report form for commercial banks is designed to encourage computer processing. - The BOZ computer program processes source data promptly. - Data adjustments and transformations: - No data adjustments and transformations are involved in the compilation of the monetary survey. ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - Validation of intermediate results: - Major aggregates of the monetary survey are validated against other financial data available in the BOZ. - Data from Zambia’s settlement system (Globus) and government securities issues are used to check accuracy of BOZ and commercial banks’ balance sheet data. - Investigation of statistical discrepancies: - The Economics Department identifies statistical discrepancies and, in collaboration with the Finance and Banking Supervision Departments, investigates their sources. - Procedures for resolving large or unexplained fluctuations in monetary, credit, or reserve money aggregates are established via collaboration among core BOZ departments (Economics, Finance, Financial Market, Banks Supervision, and Nonbank Supervision) in meetings such as the Weekly Monetary Policy Committee. - Monetary data are cross-checked with other statistical outputs in cooperation with the government via the weekly Data Monitoring Committee, the fortnightly Economic Monitoring Committee, the monthly Monetary Policy Committee, and the half-yearly Monetary Policy Advisory Committee. ### 3.5 Revision studies - Reserve money aggregates and the monetary survey can be revised, but revisions occur infrequently. - Causes of revisions are identified and noted; results of investigations are used to improve statistical processes. - See also section 4.3.3 on public disclosure of revision analyses. ### 4 Serviceability ### 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - Periodicity: - Reserve money aggregates: daily. - Monetary survey: monthly. - This periodicity is consistent with the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS), which requires monthly periodicity for both central bank and commercial banks data. - Timeliness: - BOZ uses the Statistics Fortnightly as primary vehicle for monetary data dissemination. - Timeliness for publication: - Reserve money aggregates: within three weeks. - Monetary survey: six weeks. - This is consistent with the GDDS requirements: - Monthly data on commercial banks should be disseminated within one to three months after the end of the reference month. - Monthly data on the central bank should be disseminated within one to two months after the end of the reference month. - Website dissemination: - Reserve money and monetary/credit aggregates are published on the BOZ website with almost the same timeliness as their publication in the Statistics Fortnightly. - Exact release dates on the website vary depending on technical staff work schedules. - Owing to technical reasons, the entire monetary survey is not posted on the BOZ’s website. ### 4.2 Consistency - Internal consistency: - The monetary survey is compiled to keep internal consistency (components add up to totals; assets and liabilities balance). - Monetary survey does not include all banks in liquidation; discrepancies in interbank positions tend to be augmented to some extent. - Recommendation: Reduce discrepancies in the interbank positions by covering all depository corporations. - Temporal consistency: - Current monetary survey format includes a separate category for commercial banks’ claims on households since January 1998; under this format, monthly monetary survey data are consistent. - A circular was provided to reporters and the change was announced to the press in December 1997, but there is no explanation on the break in series in BOZ dissemination media such as the Statistics Fortnightly. - Consistency with other statistical systems: - BOZ monetary survey is broadly consistent with balance of payments statistics and government finance statistics (budgetary central government operations). - Changes in stock in net foreign assets are calculated from the monetary survey and used in balance of payments statistics for the data of financial accounts. - Changes in the budgetary central government position with the BOZ and commercial banks are reconcilable with the central government’s domestic financing in government finance statistics; reconciliations are conducted by BOZ and MOFNP in the weekly Data Monitoring Committee. - No consistency checks exist for other levels of government operations. - Extra budgetary central government operations (direct donor financed project operations whose funds are deposited with commercial banks) are significant and numerous; this may create consistency problems. - Recommendation: Expand the reconciliation exercise for monetary and fiscal data to include fiscal data on extra budgetary central government operations. Enhance the accuracy of data on commercial banks’ accounts for donors’ funds. ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - Schedule and transparency: - There is no set schedule for revisions; revisions are carried out whenever necessary and this practice is not explicitly made public by the BOZ. - Recommendation: Publish the revision policy for monetary data. - Identification of preliminary and revised data: - The last three months’ data are preliminary, although revisions of preliminary data are rare. - Preliminary data are identified with “Prel.” in the Statistics Fortnightly. - The mark “Prel” has been incorrectly attached to historical final data (e.g., data of December 2002 and December 2003), which confuses users. - Such marks are not found in the tables of reserve money, monetary, and credit aggregates included in the Statistics Fortnightly or posted on the BOZ’s website. - Recommendation: Use the mark “Prel” in all monetary data tables and remove “Prel” from historical final data. - Publication of revision analyses: - Causes of revisions in reserve money aggregates and the monetary survey are investigated and explained in the footnotes of the Statistics Fortnightly. - Revisions are infrequent and tend to be of small magnitude; no formal revision studies are undertaken. ### 5 Accessibility ### 5.1 Data accessibility - Presentation and interpretability: - Reserve money aggregates and monetary survey are published clearly. - Statistics Fortnightly shows tables in time-series formats; Quarterly Financial and Statistical Review provides longer-term series. - Half-yearly Bank of Zambia Monetary Policy Statement and the Bank of Zambia Annual Report explain movements with supplementary charts. - Dissemination media and formats: - BOZ releases data through Statistics Fortnightly, Quarterly Financial and Statistical Review, half-yearly Monetary Policy Statement, and the Bank of Zambia Annual Report. - Reserve money, monetary, and credit aggregates are available on the BOZ Internet website (http://www.boz.zm). - Preannounced release schedule: - BOZ sets an internal release schedule and follows it strictly, but does not disseminate an advance release calendar. - BOZ is considering posting a preannounced schedule on its website. - Recommendation: Post a preannounced schedule for monetary statistics on the BOZ’s website as soon as possible. - Simultaneity of release: - Reserve money aggregates and monetary survey are not made available to all users at the same time. - After Director of the Economics Department approval, Statistics Fortnightly is sent to publishers and hardcopies to subscribers; major aggregates are published on the BOZ website a few days after approval. - Slippage of posting can occur due to technical reasons. - Users can obtain monetary data from the Economics Department on demand while waiting for hardcopies or website posting. - No press release is conducted for reserve money aggregates and monetary survey. - No embargo exists between first release and general dissemination; some users may obtain information before others. - Uncertainty exists about allowed maximum time lag between first release and posting on BOZ website or publication. - Recommendation: Implement simultaneous data release by creating an embargo period after the approval of data release. - Availability of non-routinely disseminated statistics: - Sub-aggregates not published are made available upon request approved by the Director of the Economics Department. - The Assistant Director (Information and Statistics Division) is identified in the Statistics Fortnightly for further detail. - The fact that sub-aggregates are available is not made public. - Recommendation: Make public the fact that sub aggregates of monetary data are available. ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - Documentation: - BOZ publications containing monetary statistics include notes and/or footnotes with information about published data. - Detailed metadata on reserve money aggregates and the monetary survey are available from the Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). - The DSBB is hyperlinked to the BOZ website (http://www.boz.zm) with a clear reference for users to access metadata from the DSBB. - Levels of detail: - No attempt is made to develop metadata at various levels of detail adapted to different audiences. - User needs are generally similar in terms of levels of detail. ### 5.3 Assistance to users - Contact points: - Statistics Fortnightly identifies the Assistant Director (Information and Statistics Division) of the Economics Department as a contact person with telephone and fax numbers. - Public Relations Office channels user requests for clarification to the Information and Statistics Division. - A contact person is also identified in the GDDS metadata; the DSBB is hyperlinked to the BOZ website. - Catalogs and publication access: - All BOZ publications are free except regular subscribers to the Statistics Fortnightly are charged 12,000 Zambia Kwacha for mailing costs. - The Public Relations Office assists with placing orders for publications. - A catalog of publications and press releases is available on the BOZ Internet website (http://www.boz.zm). *Source: _cr0530 - 3.2 Assessment of source data* ### 4. Serviceability ### _cr0530 - 4. Serviceability ### 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - X ### 4.2 Consistency - X - Findings: - Discrepancies are found in the interbank position. - There is no explanation on the break in series for commercial banks’ claim on households. - Monetary data are reconciled with the central government budget data but not with government finance data. - Recommendations and actions: - Publish the depository corporations’ survey, in which discrepancies in the interbank positions are to be reduced. (June 2004). - Prepare explanation on the break in series (June 2004). - Investigate the availability of fiscal data for the reconciliation exercise with the wider coverage (September 2004). ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - X - Findings: - Revision policy is not made public. - Marks of “Prel.” are not attached to all monetary data tables. - Recommendation: - Attach “Prel.” to all monetary data tables and publish the revision policy (September 2004). ### 5. Accessibility #### 5.1 Data accessibility - X - Findings: - Schedules of data release are not published. - Data are available on demand prior to release to the public. - The fact that sub aggregates are available is not made public. - Recommendations: - Publish an advanced release calendar and implement the simultaneous data release. - Explain the publication policy to the public (September 2004). #### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - X #### 5.3 Assistance to users - X --- ### V. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS ### 0 Prerequisites of quality #### 0.1 Legal and institutional environment 0.1.1 The responsibility for collecting, processing, and disseminating the statistics is clearly specified - Findings: - The Balance of Payments and Debt Division (BOPDD) of the Economics Department of the Bank of Zambia (BOZ) has been charged with the responsibility for the compilation of balance of payments statistics. - Under the Census and Statistics Act in Section 14, the Central Statistical Office (CSO) is legally responsible for compiling the balance of payments. - The Bank of Zambia Act (section 54 (1)) allows BOZ to require any person to provide information, but does not state explicitly that BOZ is responsible for the compilation of the balance of payments or that it may obtain information from enterprises. - BOZ took over responsibility for compilation in 1996 after CSO could not meet deadlines. - The Zambia Investment Centre (ZIC) is mandated under the Investment Act,1993 (as amended in 1996) to collect information from enterprises seeking an investment certificate. - A Balance of Payments Statistics Committee (BOPSC) is in place, with members including BOZ, CSO, Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA), Ministry of Finance and Planning (MOFNP), ZIC, Lusaka Stock Exchange, Ministry of Tourism, Zambia Privatization Agency (ZPA), and Export Board of Zambia (EBZ). - BOPSC meets monthly to harmonize data collections, ensure expertise, encourage compliance, and discuss discrepancies. - The conflict between liberalizing the financial system and minimizing information loss has hampered improvements in balance of payments data quality. - Recommendation: - Clarify the situation that gives BOZ the mandate to compile balance of payments and the obligation to disseminate balance of payments data. 0.1.2 Data sharing and coordination among data-producing agencies are adequate - Findings: - No formal procedures are in place for provision of data to BOZ, but agencies are aware of deadlines and formats. - In practice, data producing agencies do not provide data on their own accord within specified deadlines; BOZ staff must take the initiative. - Deadlines are generally within two or three weeks after the end of the reference period. - Sources include ZRA, BOZ, commercial banks, MOFNP, other government agencies, UNDP, and other domestic and international agencies. - Under BOPSC, contacts are maintained to promote understanding of requirements and avoid duplication. 0.1.3 Individual reporters’ data are to be kept confidential and used for statistical purposes only - Findings: - Section 22 (1) of the Bank of Zambia Act requires staff to take an oath of secrecy per the Official Oaths Act. - Section 23 (1) states that, except by court order or written consent of the Board, staff shall not disclose contents of documents; contravention is punishable by fines or imprisonment, though fines are low and unchanged. - The Bank of Zambia Act does not specify that collected data are to be used for statistical purposes only. - All BOZ survey forms include a clause that information will be kept strictly confidential and may only be used for statistical purposes. - If the number of respondents is two or less, data are either not published or merged indistinguishably in other data. - Computer files are password protected and accessible only to balance of payments staff; hard copy files are less protected and in principle accessible to non-BOP staff. 0.1.4 Statistical reporting is ensured through legal mandate and/or measures to encourage response - Findings: - The Census and Statistics Act Section 14 specifies data collection from enterprises and establishments, including profit and loss, operating income and expenditure, appropriation account in Zambia and abroad, balance sheet data (domestic and foreign assets and liabilities), and fixed capital formation. - BOZ can call for information from persons; BOZ also conducts surveys of insurance, communications, and other nonbank enterprises. - The Bank of Zambia Act does not clearly include penalties for nonresponse. ### 0.2 Resources 0.2.1 Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing are commensurate with statistical programs - Findings: - The balance of payments unit consists of three staff members, out of which one is away on study leave. - All staff members are well qualified with advanced degrees and have received training in balance of payments methodology at IMF headquarters. - Each staff member has a computer. - BOZ has a job rotating policy. - There is a shortage of staff to handle current workload, specifically for surveys. - Surveys must be staggered and frequency reduced, creating longer time lags. - During the Private Capital Flow (PCF) project, no staff was available for routine surveys; currently surveys are conducted by the Information and Statistics Division and BOP unit must exert pressure to obtain timely results. - Recommendation: - Increase staff resources to meet the need to develop new methodologies and strengthen data sources. 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources are implemented - Findings: - Measures include annual performance reviews and use of outside experts when necessary (e.g., PCF project). - Work processes to achieve savings are reviewed ad hoc rather than systematically. - Cost savings example: collecting exchange rates of major trading partners via the internet instead of telephone calls. - For new projects, detailed cost estimates are prepared. - Extensive use of computerizing data sources and collection methods. - BOZ’s Strategic Plan, 2004–07 sets strategic objectives, action plans, and critical success factors; departments prepare a four-year strategic plan with detailed quarterly action plans. ### 0.3 Relevance 0.3.1 The relevance and practical utility of existing statistics in meeting users’ needs are monitored - Findings: - Balance of payments data are presented in an analytic table with commentary providing an overview of external developments. - Current needs of main users (government agencies) are continuously monitored through BOPSC. - No systematic outreach to main private users (NGOs, academic researchers) via surveys or newsletters, though selected private users can request data. - BOZ conducted a seminar for producers and users about four months ago allowing feedback and exchange on data gathering. - Data requirements monitored within SADC framework. - BOZ conducts studies for internal use to review need for additional information or format changes. ### 0.4 Other quality management 0.4.1 Processes are in place to focus on quality - Findings: - Management emphasizes data quality through promotion of consistency and accuracy. - The Strategic Plan 2004 to 2007 mentions recognition of expertise and performance of staff; mission statement emphasizes integrity. - BOPSC is the main mechanism to assure data quality through reconciliation and assessments. - BOZ is aware of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy; mission statement communicates commitment to data integrity. 0.4.2 Processes are in place to monitor the quality of the statistical program - Findings: - Divisional meetings discuss work in progress, updates on projects, data discrepancies, revisions, and timeliness. - Management is informed when activities show little progress; expert guidance sought as needed. 0.4.3 Processes are in place to deal with quality considerations in planning the statistical program - Findings: - Management is aware of tradeoffs between accuracy and timeliness. - Data need to be reported within a cutoff date, usually within two weeks from receipt of the survey form. - Quality improvements are continuously monitored and staff encouraged to propose ideas. - User needs and new data requirements are taken into account when planning, constrained by resources. - Seminar for producers and users revealed demand for new data; meeting such demands is resource intensive and may require new data sources. --- ### 1. Assurances of Integrity ### 1.1 Professionalism 1.1.1 Statistics are produced on an impartial basis - Findings: - BOZ is independent with respect to statistical activities though this is not explicitly stated in the Bank of Zambia Act. - BOZ’s Strategic Plan, 2004–07 explicitly strives for professional independence. - Government officials do not comment on or regulate BOZ data releases when data are made available to government prior to public release. - BOZ is perceived by the public to produce statistics on an impartial basis. - Professionalism is promoted within BOZ through training, recognition, and support for participation in seminars and professional bodies. 1.1.2 Choices of sources and statistical techniques as well as decisions about dissemination are informed solely by statistical considerations - Findings: - Choice of source data is based on statistical considerations subject to cost constraints. - Source data include surveys, administrative records, reports by enterprises, and estimation models. - Processing, validation, and dissemination decisions are based on statistical considerations and cost constraints. 1.1.3 The appropriate statistical entity is entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics - Findings: - BOZ monitors media responses after data release. - In accordance with the Code of Conduct, BOZ is required to respond to erroneous interpretation within forty-eight hours. ### 1.2 Transparency 1.2.1 The terms and conditions under which statistics are collected, processed, and disseminated are available to the public - Findings: - Terms and conditions are mentioned in all BOZ survey report forms (confidentiality and statistical use), but do not indicate that collected data will be disseminated. - Bank of Zambia Act is published on the BOZ website; it does not impose an obligation to disseminate data collected for statistical purposes. - BOZ disseminates data as a service to the public. 1.2.2 Internal governmental access to statistics prior to their release is publicly identified - Findings: - Data are made available to the government when requested and thus prior to public release. - This internal government access is not publicly identified, though some users are probably aware. 1.2.3 Products of statistical agencies/units are clearly identified as such - Findings: - BOZ balance of payments data are clearly identified as BOZ products via publications carrying BOZ name and logo. - In joint publications, contributions of participating agencies are clearly acknowledged. - BOZ requests attribution when its statistics are used or reproduced and acknowledges use of other agencies’ statistics. 1.2.4 Advanced notice is given of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques - Findings: - Notes to published tables explain major changes in methodology or data sources at the time of changes. - No advance notice is given to users when major changes are introduced. ### 1.3 Ethical standards 1.3.1 Guidelines for staff behavior are in place and are well known to the staff - Findings: - A Code of Conduct booklet is handed out to every staff member. - A draft departmental code of conduct addressing issues particular to the Economics Department has been prepared and submitted to management for approval. - The mission statement emphasizes honesty and sincerity in dealings. --- ### 2. Methodological Soundness ### 2.1 Concepts and definitions 2.1.1 The overall structure in terms of concepts and definitions follows internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices - Findings: - The framework of Zambia’s balance of payments is broadly consistent with BPM5. - An important exception: direct investment capital flows definition of ten percent or more of ordinary shares or voting power is not applied. - The directional principle is applied, but in practice has no significance as claims of foreign direct investment companies on their foreign direct investors are negligible. - Resident institutional units are defined in broad conformity with BPM5, but there is doubt whether the residency definition in monetary statistics is identical to that used for balance of payments. - The residency definition based on center of economic interest per BPM5 does not apply to construction enterprises due to source data limitations. - The double entry system is applied implicitly; source data are not sufficiently detailed for strict double entry (e.g., lack of information on grants in kind from customs data makes counterpart entries difficult to identify). - Recommendation: - Implement the BPM5 definition for foreign direct investment and review the residency definition in the monetary statistics. *Source: _cr0530 - 4. Serviceability (PDF chapter content provided)* ### 2.2 Scope ### _cr0530 - 2.2 Scope ### Scope: coverage and limitations - The balance of payments covers in principle all transactions of government, enterprises, and individuals resident in Zambia with nonresidents. - Not captured or incompletely captured in the current account: - Goods that do not come through the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) channels (smuggling by small traders occurs; no estimates included). - Services not recorded in any official documentation. - Transactions in computer software, international insurance on goods imports, government services receipts, interest on export proceeds held abroad by mining companies, and leases (only the value of the equipment is captured in merchandise trade statistics). - Private current and capital transfers (difficult to obtain). - Within the financial account, difficulties measuring: - Transactions related to foreign direct investment and other investments by the private sector (no entries for reinvestment of earnings, export proceeds held abroad, trade credits). - No estimates for other illegal activities and informal trade are included. ### Classification and sectorization (BPM5 alignment and exceptions) - Classification system broadly in accordance with the BPM5: - Current account (goods, services, income, current transfers), capital account, financial account (direct investment, portfolio investment, other investments, reserve assets). - Four identified sectors: monetary authorities (BOZ), general government (all government units), banks (all commercial banks including state-owned banks), and other sectors (nonbank financial institutions, enterprises including parastatals, and individuals). Statutory reporters comprise fully independent parastatal units funded by the budget. - Goods: - Includes general merchandise, repairs on goods, goods procured in ports; only goods procured in ports are shown separately. - Goods for processing and transactions in no monetary gold do not occur. - Repairs not identified separately; smuggling not included. - Goods compiled on a c.i.f. basis (except metal exports); adjusted to f.o.b. The adjustment factor covers only international freight, excluding international insurance. - Services: - Includes transportation of goods and passengers, travel, and other services. - Information is very limited. International freight includes both freight by residents and nonresidents (only nonresident freight appropriate to BOP). - Data on transport services by modes other than rail not available. - Travel account does not include expenditures of expatriate workers staying in Zambia less than one year; breakdown into business and personal travel not available. - Other services include communications, construction, insurance, financial services, computer and information services, royalties and license fees, other business services, and government services. - For construction, no distinction between activities completed within one year and more than one year. - Royalties include subscriptions to international organizations. - Transactions in computer software and financial leasing are not included. - Income: - Includes compensation of employees, direct investment income, and other investment income, but information limited. - No distinction for expatriate workers staying less than one year vs. more than one year → transactions appropriate to current transfers are included in compensation of employees. - No direct investment income outflows, including reinvestment of earnings, are reported. - Income/losses from mineral exploration not included. - Interest income received on foreign assets of commercial banks is incorrectly classified as portfolio investment income; interest income paid on foreign liabilities of commercial banks is not included. - Other investment income receipts/payments include interest on reserve assets, interest payments on external debt of the government, and interest received on export proceeds held abroad by non-traditional exporters. Not included: interest receipts on export proceeds held abroad by mining companies. - Current transfers: - Only components are general government current transfers (primarily commodity grants, grants disbursed as balance of payments support, and workers’ remittances). - Private sector cash and noncash grants are not included. - Capital transfers: - Only components are debt forgiveness and estimates of project assistance grants. - Financial account: - Portfolio investment definition in accordance with BPM5. - BPM5 definition for direct investment capital flows is not applied. - Direct investment: - Includes estimated expenditures on mining exploration by foreign enterprises, proceeds from sale of public enterprises to nonresidents, and expenditures on new capital investments. - Portfolio investment: - Covers equity securities purchased by nonresidents. - Other investment: - Covers loan transactions of the general government and the private sector, and the currency and deposit assets and liabilities of deposit money banks. - Data on trade credit foreign assets and liabilities and private sector debt arrears are not available. - Reserve assets: - Covers only the foreign currency and deposits of the BOZ with foreign banks. ### Recommendations (from the section) - Reclassify from portfolio investment income to other investment income the interest earned by commercial banks on their foreign assets held abroad. - Review the estimation procedure for compensation of employees to identify transactions appropriate for classification in current transfers. - Incorporate changes in trade-credits received and extended, changes in export proceeds held abroad by mining enterprises and nontraditional exporters, and changes in foreign liabilities of the commercial banks. ### Basis for recording (valuation, basis, grossing/netting) - Presentation currency: U.S. dollars. - Conversion: - Transactions in other currencies converted to U.S. dollar equivalents at the transaction rate or, if not available, at monthly average rates. - Flow changes in foreign assets and liabilities of commercial banks: - Calculated as difference in stocks at beginning and end of period, converted into U.S. dollars at the end of period exchange rate. - Valuation: - Transactions valued at market prices where available, face value for debt instruments. - Exports of goods valued f.o.b.; imports valued c.i.f. by customs are adjusted to f.o.b. - For grants in kind, donor reported values are used. Proxy values used by customs if no values are available. - Recording: - Goods exports and imports recorded at time of crossing the customs border. - Services, compensation of employees, and some private transfers recorded on actual transactions basis at payment time. - Investment income and financial account transactions recorded on an accrual basis. - Loan drawings recorded when disbursed; loan repayments recorded on an accrual basis. - Recording of arrears consistent with BPM5 methodology. - Grossing/netting: - Current account transactions recorded on a gross basis. - Financial account transactions recorded on a net basis, separately for assets and liabilities. ### Accuracy and reliability — source data and assessments - Main data sources: - Reports from enterprises; administrative sources from government agencies, the BOZ, and international agencies. - Estimation methods used when source data insufficient; estimation methods are based on trends using a base period when foreign exchange control was strict. - Impact of liberalization: - Relaxation of exchange controls led to decline in accuracy and coverage; alternative data collection procedures were not in place. - ITRS not used as data source for balance of payments due to noncompliance and deteriorating coverage after liberalization. - Surveys and registers: - Regular surveys cover mining, insurance and telecommunications enterprises; coverage not complete (small mines do not report). - Travel survey coverage limited to provinces along main railways; tourist spending in outlying areas excluded. - No surveys of transportation enterprises have been conducted. - PCF project surveyed 500 enterprises, including the largest 200 enterprises; response rate of 81.9 percent. - Business register drawn up for PCF project from ZIC, ZPA, BOZ, and EBZ registers; the business register has not been maintained since. - Specific data sources and practices: - Goods: - Metal exports and electricity exports based on reports from mining companies and Zambia Electricity Supply Company. - Nontraditional exports (excluding electricity) based on ZRA Customs Exports Declaration forms processed by BOZ. - Imports based on customs declarations from ZRA’s computerized database; imports valued c.i.f. but adjusted to f.o.b. by deducting freight charges estimated at ten percent of goods imports c.i.f. - Transportation: - Passenger fares based on historical data with 1994 as a base year; disaggregation by mode other than rail not available. - Travel: - Travel credit estimates based on surveys of enterprises providing travel services; travel debits based on government administrative records. - Other services: - Most data from surveys of construction companies, communication enterprises, and insurance companies; other business services based on historical data. - Income: - Compensation of employees: reports submitted by mining companies on expatriate emoluments. - No data for direct investment income compiled. - Portfolio investment income credits estimated at 5 percent of the gross foreign assets of commercial banks (from the monetary survey). - Other investment income sources: administrative records from general government, BOZ, monetary survey for commercial banks; foreign exchange reports from mining companies; private sector debt database of the Debt Unit for nonmetal sector investment income debits. - Transfers: - Government current and capital transfers from administrative records of the MOFNP External Resource Mobilization Department (ERMD). - Direct investment: - Data from administrative records of ZIC, ZPA, and the Ministry of Mines and Mineral Development (MMMD); ZIC reports new capital investments and pledged liabilities; surveys determine implementation rates on initial pledges; MMMD reports estimated expenditures on mining exploration by foreign enterprises. - Portfolio investment: - Data from monthly reports compiled by the Lusaka Stock Exchange; previously from ITRS (coverage declined after liberalization). - Other investment: - Source data for loan transactions from Debt Unit of the BOZ, MOFNP ERMD, and reports from mining companies on disbursements and repayments. - Reserve assets: - Source data are statements of receipts and payments on gross international reserves reported by the Finance Department of the BOZ. - Timeliness: - Metal exports: timeliness of four weeks. - Nontraditional exports (excluding electricity): usually available with a timeliness of two weeks. - Electricity exports: timeliness of two months. - ZIC produces monthly reports; respondents made aware of deadlines; BOZ staff follows up via telephone, visits, or e-mail. - Data assessment practices: - New source data assessed for reliability and accuracy and likelihood of continued reporting; incorporation into compilation system requires management approval. - BOZ attempts to reconcile its published goods export data with CSO data within the framework of the BOPSC. - Assessments for external debt data and goods data carried out within BOPSC. - Results of source-data assessments are used to improve statistical processes; large values are confirmed with respondents. ### Recommendations (source-data and process improvements) - Initiate an annual enterprise survey based on the groundwork laid by the PCF project. - Initiate smaller enterprise surveys of only the largest enterprises on a quarterly basis to support quarterly balance of payments compilation. - In the interim, broaden coverage of the survey of external debt of the private sector (currently comprising 60 enterprises) guided by PCF project findings. - Initiate efforts to revitalize the reporting system of external transactions settled through banks, the International Transactions Reporting System (ITRS). - Develop a survey of transportation enterprises. - Develop a methodology to establish a reliable c.i.f./f.o.b. ratio and estimate the part of international freight and insurance attributable to nonresidents. - Discontinue the survey of Zambian embassies and consulates abroad. - Restart a survey of foreign embassies, consulates, and international organizations in Zambia under the auspices of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; in the interim, obtain data on inflows and outflows of accounts held by these nonresidents with domestic banks. - Initiate efforts to compile data on cash and noncash grants received by the private sector, including the NGOs. *Source: _cr0530 - 2.2 Scope* ### 3.3 Statistical techniques ### 3.3 Statistical techniques ### Verification of data (editing, tabulation, consistency checks) - Completed survey forms received are scrutinized and edited. - Built-in checks in the processing of data signal: - deviations from historical patterns; - internal consistencies between prices, volumes, and sales; - completeness; and - consistency of opening and closing balances. - Adjustment for nonresponse is confined to carrying forward of data. - Most current forms have been in use for a long period and respondents are well aware of its objectives. ### Other statistical procedures (data adjustments, transformations, and statistical analysis) - The balance of payments compilation system employs a number of adjustments, most of which: - do not have a sound statistical base; and - are not adjusted to take account of changes in circumstances as these procedures have been in use over many years. - Specific adjustment procedures described: - A c.i.f./f.o.b ratio to adjust goods imports from a c.i.f basis to an f.o.b basis. A rule of thumb of ten percent is in use which is probably under estimated. - Data on government services receipts are estimated on the basis of extrapolation. A survey to collect these data has been conducted but the results were very poor. - Interest receipts on export proceeds held abroad. The estimation procedure has remained unchanged for five years. - Workers’ remittances are estimated on a net basis. Under this procedure, the number of foreign employees is combined with an estimated amount for a per capita remittance. The estimated amount is adjusted annually with the GDP growth factor. - Direct investment in Zambia: the estimation procedure applies an implementation ratio to the amounts pledged during the reporting period. The implementation rate, which is variable and currently 60 percent, is derived from a survey conducted by ZIC. ### Recommendations (statistical techniques and data sources) - The c.i.f/f.o.b ratio needs to be revised, as a rule of thumb to estimate freight and insurance charges on imports would not properly reflect Zambia’s position as a landlocked country and the geographical distribution of its trade flows. - Data on government receipts should be derived from an analysis of banking records or much improved annual surveys of foreign embassies and international organizations. - Surveys should be used to collect data on foreign direct investment, workers’ remittances, and interest receipts on export proceeds held abroad. ### Assessment and validation of intermediate results and statistical outputs (3.4) - Intermediate results validation: - Except for copper, few intermediate results are validated against other information. - Information reported in the financial press is used to verify high valued data. - Planned reconciliation and assessments: - BOZ plans to assess reported data on investment income receipts and payments in relation to the corresponding stock data. - BOZ plans to reconcile the reported financial flow data with changes in the corresponding stock data for external debt and other items in the international investment position. - Investigation of discrepancies: - Investigations are made when net errors and omissions are large. - The net errors and omission item is routinely monitored; there are no rules on its magnitude, justifying such investigations. ### Revision studies (3.5) - No routine studies or analysis of revisions are conducted. - Big revisions are investigated when they occur. ### Serviceability — Periodicity and timeliness (4.1) - Periodicity: - Balance of payments statistics are compiled on a quarterly and annual basis, but are not published on a quarterly basis. Users may request quarterly data from the BOZ. - The periodicity of balance of payments data, i.e. quarterly data, is in line with the GDDS recommendations. - Timeliness: - BOZ disseminates the quarterly data within two months after the end of the reference period. - BOZ disseminates the annual data with a timeliness of six months. - The timeliness of the quarterly data exceeds the recommendations of the GDDS. ### Consistency (4.2) - Internal consistency: - Concepts, definitions, and classifications for producing quarterly and annual data are identical. - Annual data for each balance of payments component are the sum of the quarterly data. - Consistency over time: - Published data are consistent and reconcilable over a reasonable period of time. - Since 1994, balance of payments statistics have been compiled in accordance with methods and procedures recommended in BPM5. - Unusual changes in economic trends are explained in the commentary accompanying the publication of the data. - In case of methodological changes, historical series are reconstructed as far back as possible. - Reconciliation with other frameworks: - Balance of payments data are reconcilable with the national accounts, the monetary statistics, and external debt. - For the goods account, goods imports are reconcilable with the international merchandise trade data; for goods exports attempts are made to achieve full reconciliation between the two sets of data. - Data are not reconciled with government statistics in the areas of foreign grants and payments abroad for government services. ### Revision policy and practice (4.3) - Revision scheduling and transparency: - There is no official policy on when data need to be revised. - In general, revisions are made when new data have become available. - In practice, revisions are implemented quarterly and data are revised as far back as two years. - Minor revisions to data are undertaken as soon as they are received. - Major revisions are implemented after discussion and reaching consensus. - The public does not know the schedule of revisions. Users are not informed whenever data are revised nor is adequate documentation provided to the public. - Identification of preliminary/revised data: - Preliminary and revised data are not clearly identified. - In the BOZ Annual Report, the annual data are identified as projected data for the most recent period, while data for previous periods are identified as estimations. - In the Economic Report, annual data are not identified. - Users are not informed whenever data are revised. - Recommendation on terminology: - Discontinue the use of the terms estimations and projections to identify data status. Instead, use the terms preliminary and revised. - Public studies of revisions: - There are no studies of revisions. ### Accessibility — Data and metadata (5.1–5.2) - Presentation and detail: - Annual balance of payments data are published by BOZ in U.S. dollars and disseminated in an analytic presentation only. - Data are presented in an aggregated presentation without any details in the accounts for services, income, and current transfers. - In the financial account no clear distinction is made between foreign assets and liabilities. - The short-term financial flows are lumped together with the net errors and omissions item. - No notes to changes in methodology or source data are provided. - The presentation is accompanied by a short commentary facilitating the balance of payments developments during the period under review. - In the Annual Report of the BOZ only three periods of annual data are published, while in the Economic Report of the MOFNP, four periods of annual data are published. - Balance of payments data are also disseminated in a standard and analytic presentation in the Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook published by the IMF. - Additional data series are not disseminated, but are available at request only. - No time series are published on a seasonally adjusted basis. - Dissemination media and formats: - Dissemination media of annual data are limited to the BOZ Annual Report once a year and the MOFNP Economic Report, also once a year. - Annual balance of payments statistics are also reported to the SADC for publication in Recent Economic Development and Statistics for SADC. - Annual and quarterly data are also available to interested users through the Public Relations Office of BOZ on demand and when available. - No data are available on the website of the BOZ. - Balance of payments data are also disseminated in a standard and analytic presentation in the Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook published by the IMF. - Recommendation: Balance of payments data should be published on the BOZ website. - Release practices and access: - The balance of payments data are not released on a preannounced schedule. - Some users are aware of the expected publication months: Economic Report around February and Annual Report around May. - Data are not released to all users simultaneously; data are first made available to official users and last to private users. However, private users do get the most current data. - The availability of unpublished but nonconfidential data is not made known to the public. The availability of additional data and of procedures for obtaining them are known to some users. Additional information is provided free of charge. - Metadata accessibility: - The statement of the methodology used for the compilation of the balance of payments is not disseminated to the public at present since it is for internal use only. - The Economics Department has prepared a methodology documentation including monetary statistics, prices, real sector, balance of payments, and other areas covered by the department. The balance of payments methodology is primarily for internal use. - The methodology is available to outside users on demand, but the public is not informed about this documentation. - Information on methodology is also published in the IMF’s Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook and in the GDDS metadata on the IMF website. - Recommendation: Availability of methodology should be publicized. - Assistance to users: - The Quarterly Financial and Statistics Review and the Annual Report published by BOZ provide points of contacts with e-mail addresses, which users could use to obtain additional information or further clarifications. - In the Economic Report published by the MOFNP the name of a contact person is provided. - The contact point in the BOZ is the Public Relations Department. A contact point specifically for the balance of payments is not available, except on the IMF’s GDDS website which can be accessed through a hyperlink from the BOZ website. - A catalog of publications and press releases, and key statistics are available on the website of the BOZ, but not in the publications of the BOZ. The products are free of charge. *Table 5. Republic of Zambia: Data Quality Assessment Framework (July 2003): Summary of Results for Balance of Payments Statistics (Compiling Agency: Bank of Zambia)* ### 0.1 Legal and institutional ### 0.1 Legal and institutional ### Prerequisites of quality - The environment is supportive of statistics. - 0.1.4 Statistical reporting is ensured through legal mandate and/or measures to encourage response. - 0.2 Resources—Resources are commensurate with needs of statistical programs. - 0.2.1 Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing are commensurate with statistical programs. - 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources are implemented. - 0.3 Relevance—Statistics cover relevant information on the subject field. - 0.3.1 The relevance and practical utility of existing statistics in meeting users’ needs are monitored. - 0.4 Other quality management—Quality is a cornerstone of statistical work. - 0.4.1 Processes are in place to focus on quality. - 0.4.2 Processes are in place to monitor the quality of the statistical program. - 0.4.3 Processes are in place to deal with quality considerations in planning the statistical program. ### Assurances of integrity (Professionalism, Transparency, Ethics) - 1.1 Professionalism—Statistical policies and practices are guided by professional principles. - 1.1.1 Statistics are produced on an impartial basis. - 1.1.2 Choices of sources and statistical techniques as well as decisions about dissemination are informed solely by statistical considerations. - 1.1.3 The appropriate statistical entity is entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics. - 1.2 Transparency—Statistical policies and practices are transparent. - 1.2.1 The terms and conditions under which statistics are collected, processed, and disseminated are available to the public. - 1.2.2 Internal governmental access to statistics prior to their release is publicly identified. - 1.2.3 Products of statistical agencies/units are clearly identified as such. - 1.2.4 Advanced notice is given of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques. - 1.3 Ethical standards—Policies and practices are guided by ethical standards. - 1.3.1 Guidelines for staff behavior are in place and are well known to the staff. - Statement: "The principle of objectivity in the collection, processing, and dissemination of statistics is firmly adhered to." ### Methodological soundness - 2.1 Concepts and definitions—Concepts and definitions used are in accord with internationally accepted statistical frameworks. - 2.1.1 The overall structure in terms of concepts and definitions follows internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - 2.2 Scope—The scope is in accord with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - 2.2.1 The scope is broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - 2.3 Classification/sectorization—Classification and sectorization systems are in accord with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - 2.3.1 Classification/sectorization systems used are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - 2.4 Basis for recording—Flows and stocks are valued and recorded according to internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - 2.4.1 Market prices are used to value flows and stocks. - 2.4.2 Recording is done on an accrual basis. - 2.4.3 Grossing/netting procedures are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. ### Accuracy and reliability - 3.1 Source data—Source data available provide an adequate basis to compile statistics. - 3.1.1 Source data are obtained from comprehensive data collection programs that take into account country-specific conditions. - 3.1.2 Source data reasonably approximate the definitions, scope, classifications, valuation, and time of recording required. - 3.1.3 Source data are timely. - 3.2 Assessment of source data—Source data are regularly assessed. - 3.2.1 Source data—including censuses, sample surveys, and administrative records—are routinely assessed, e.g., for coverage, sample error, response error, and nonsampling error; the results of the assessments are monitored and made available to guide statistical processes. - 3.3 Statistical techniques—Statistical techniques employed conform to sound statistical procedures. - 3.3.1 Data compilation employs sound statistical techniques to deal with data sources. - 3.3.2 Other statistical procedures (e.g., data adjustments and transformations, and statistical analysis) employ sound statistical techniques. - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs—Intermediate results and statistical outputs are regularly assessed and validated. - 3.4.1 Intermediate results are validated against other information where applicable. - 3.4.2 Statistical discrepancies in intermediate data are assessed and investigated. - 3.4.3 Statistical discrepancies and other potential indicators or problems in statistical outputs are investigated. - 3.5 Revision studies—Revisions, as a gauge of reliability, are tracked and mined for the information they may provide. - 3.5.1 Studies and analyses of revisions are carried out routinely and used internally to inform statistical processes (see also 4.3.3). ### Serviceability (Periodicity, Consistency, Revisions) - 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness—Periodicity and timeliness follow internationally accepted dissemination standards. - 4.1.1 Periodicity follows dissemination standards. - 4.1.2 Timeliness follows dissemination standards. - 4.2 Consistency—Statistics are consistent within the dataset, over time, and with major datasets. - 4.2.1 Statistics are consistent within the dataset. - 4.2.2 Statistics are consistent or reconcilable over a reasonable period of time. - 4.2.3 Statistics are consistent or reconcilable with those obtained through other data sources and/or statistical frameworks. - 4.3 Revision policy and practice—Data revisions follow a regular and publicized procedure. - 4.3.1 Revisions follow a regular and transparent schedule. - 4.3.2 Preliminary and/or revised data are clearly identified. - 4.3.3 Studies and analyses of revisions are made public (see also 3.5.1). ### Accessibility (Dissemination, Metadata, User Assistance) - 5.1 Data accessibility—Statistics are presented in a clear and understandable manner, forms of dissemination are adequate, and statistics are made available on an impartial basis. - 5.1.1 Statistics are presented in a way that facilitates proper interpretation and meaningful comparisons (layout and clarity of text, tables, and charts). - 5.1.2 Dissemination media and format are adequate. - 5.1.3 Statistics are released on a preannounced schedule. - 5.1.4 Statistics are made available to all users at the same time. - 5.1.5 Statistics not routinely disseminated are made available upon request. - 5.2 Metadata accessibility—Up-to-date and pertinent metadata are made available. - 5.2.1 Documentation on concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques is available, and differences from internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices are annotated. - 5.2.2 Levels of detail are adapted to the needs of the intended audience. - 5.3 Assistance to users—Prompt and knowledgeable support service is available. - 5.3.1 Contact points for each subject field are publicized. - 5.3.2 Catalogs of publications, documents, and other services, including information on any changes, are widely available. ### Summary of Users’ Survey (visit May 18–June 3, 2004) - Survey administration and response: - The mission visited Lusaka during May 18–June 3, 2004. - The survey questionnaire was sent to ministries and state agencies, donor agencies and embassies, banks and other financial institutions, and the private sector. - The questionnaire was sent to a sample of 70 users; the questionnaire was completed by 20 users of the sample of 70 users to whom the questionnaire was sent. - Table 6 (as presented) indicates: Total Sent 62 and Total Received 25. - The questionnaire was completed by 20 users in the initial summary; limited follow-up meetings were made with a few users from commercial banks, a university, a media outlet, donors, and international organizations. - Which official statistics are used regularly (Number of Responses): - a. National accounts (NA) 14 - b. Prices 21 - c. Government finance statistics (GFS) 13 - d. Monetary statistics (Monetary) 17 - e. Balance of payments (BOP) 13 - f. Other: - Production indices 5 - Labor market 7 - Merchandise trade 5 - International reserves and foreign currency liquidity 4 - External debt 8 - International investment position 5 - Other 1 - Where users obtain official statistics: - a. Official press releases and publications on macroeconomic statistics 20 - b. Private sector summaries and analyses 3 - c. Official policy papers 8 - d. Publications from international organizations about the country 11 - e. Other sources 3 - Use of methodology documentation: - Yes 17 - No 4 - Purposes for using official statistics: - a. Analysis of current developments for short-term decision making 20 - b. Analysis of trends for longer-term policy formulation? ten - c. Econometric model building and forecasting ten - d. Economic research 11 - e. Comparison with economic developments in other countries ten - f. General economic background ten - g. Other 17 - Accessibility channels (How do you get access to official statistics?): - Official releases 16 - Hard copy publications 19 - Data specifically requested 7 - Official website 11 - Other 1 - E-mail requests 4 - Users’ satisfaction and assessments (selected findings): - Coverage and detail: - Users were broadly satisfied with coverage of monetary, CPI, and fiscal operations statistics. - Users were most critical of national accounts statistics (lowest relative rating) and monetary statistics received the highest relative rating. - Level of detail: balance of payments and national accounts received the lowest relative rating; monetary statistics and CPI the highest. - Periodicity and timeliness: - Users were somewhat satisfied with periodicity and timeliness of CPI and monetary statistics; less satisfied with national accounts and balance of payments. - Users were dissatisfied with timeliness of fiscal and balance of payments statistics. - Users expressed strong preference for more timely national accounts and somewhat more timely fiscal data; they wanted quarterly GDP data. - Foreign reserves data currently disseminated with a two–three month time lag; selected users preferred more timely data. - A serious issue: lack of a clear schedule of data release; there is no advance release calendar for any data categories. - Methodological soundness: - Users expressed strong reservations about soundness and appropriateness of methodology used for balance of payments and CPI. - Users somewhat believed methodology was sound for fiscal data and monetary data. - Some users questioned methodology soundness of national accounts and CPI during discussions. - Accuracy and reliability: - Monetary data received the highest score in terms of quality, especially accuracy. - National accounts and balance of payments statistics received the lowest score. - Users cited doubts about integrity of data-producing agencies and concerns about deterioration in source data (especially for national accounts and balance of payments). - Data revision: - Users considered that insufficient information is provided about revisions to national accounts, balance of payments statistics, and fiscal data. - Users were not aware of a revision policy or of published revision studies. - Preliminary data are not always clearly indicated. - Users face challenges obtaining balance of payments data and their revisions because of a limited dissemination venue. - Dissemination practices: - Users indicated limited means of data dissemination as a serious problem and costly for users. - Lack of electronic means of data dissemination limited access and prohibited equal access to information (the MOFNP does not have a website). - Users were generally dissatisfied with accessibility of national accounts and balance of payments statistics. - Many users rely on other agencies rather than the official agency primarily responsible for the statistics (e.g., they rely on MOFNP’s Monthly Economic Indicator rather than on the Central Statistical Office). - In the absence of a publicly disseminated calendar, users rely on past experience and unofficial channels; many attempt to cultivate personal contacts at agencies to obtain more current data. - Overall assessment: - Users ranked overall quality on a scale of one to five (one = poor, five = excellent). Average scores reported: - NA = 2.6 - Prices = 3.7 - GFS = 3.5 - Monetary = 4.0 - BOP = 3.3 - Other = 2 - Monetary statistics and CPI were rated relatively well; national accounts were rated relatively poorly. - Users indicated the need for statistical agencies to provide better access to statistics to nongovernmental users and on a more level playing field. ### Key user comments and suggested improvements (June 3, 2004) - Accuracy and Reliability: - Composition of CPI data sources should be enlarged. - NA data should be updated and coverage improved. - Serviceability: - Published detail should be improved. - NA should be compiled quarterly. - CPI should be available weekly. - Accessibility: - Official statistics should be published in the press. - Copies of economic bulletins should be more widely available. - There is need to announce dates of release of data and adhere to these dates. - BOZ may have good quality statistics but this is not readily available; e.g., BOP statistics are not on the website. - BOZ should put more statistics on the website. - Publication of price statistics should be more sector-specific. - Accurate data on public expenditure in agriculture difficult to come by. - Merchandise data on machinery and agricultural products not available. *Source: _cr0530 - 0.1 Legal and institutional* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/_cr0530.pdf_