## 1. DQAF July 2003—Summary Results ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [1. DQAF July 2003—Summary Results](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/_cr05426.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/_cr05426.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/_cr05426.pdf.json) --- ### Overall assessment - Nicaragua is well advanced toward participating in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). - Metadata for macroeconomic and socio-demographic statistics have been drafted and plans for improvement formulated. - Participation can occur possibly by end-February 2005 once the metadata to be posted on the Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) have been approved by the Nicaraguan authorities. - The ROSC data module describes a statistical system underpinned by a legal framework sufficient to provide the necessary authority for the collection and compilation of statistics, with gaps in terms and conditions for official statistics. - Authorities are committed to disseminating macroeconomic statistics; scope exists to improve methodological basis and source data underpinning most datasets. - All statistical agencies are well placed to make further progress based on ongoing initiatives and recent measures. ### Prerequisites of quality — agency-level assurances of integrity - National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (NISC) - Operates under law of 1979 providing de facto independence and a coordinating role within the National Statistical System (NSS). - Reliance on external financing, limited government appropriation, and few ad hoc assignments from the central bank; resources insufficient for compiling intermediate data for macroeconomic statistics such as cartographic and housing and population censuses. - Relevance promoted mainly by feedback from other statistical agencies rather than end users. - Appropriate quality management processes in place; professionalism and ethical standards fostered. - Need for greater transparency in the data compilation process through increased public dissemination. - Central Bank of Nicaragua (CBN) - Law of the Central Bank of Nicaragua is legal basis for collection and production of macroeconomic data; CBN compiles and disseminates national accounts, balance of payments, prices, monetary, and government finance statistics. - Law lacks clear assignment of compilation responsibilities among statistical agencies. - Resources generally adequate, but heavy reliance on contractual employees for price indices is a risk to continuity of expertise. - Human resources appear insufficient for compilation of prices and balance of payments statistics. - Informal contacts with users assist relevance; four-year strategic planning system monitors data quality and promotes adoption of international practices. - CBN publishes relevant legislation and provides data simultaneously to all users, although advance release to government officials on request may occur without public awareness. - Recruitment of qualified staff and ethical standards are in place. - Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (MFPC) - Institutional environment supports compilation of budgetary transactions but not statistics for general government and nonfinancial public enterprises. - Good arrangements for data sharing among agencies; staff and computing resources sufficient, but urgent need for development of a relational database. - GFS compilers lack systematic consultation with users; relevance could be enhanced by more active consultation. - Professional independence of SIGFA unit contributes to objectivity; strong culture of ethical standards. - Transparency of fiscal data could be enhanced by publishing compilation and dissemination practices and procedures. ### Methodological soundness — cross-dataset observations - General - Methodological soundness is generally endorsed across methodological areas. - Deviations exist in concepts and definitions, scope, and sectorization. - Notable weaknesses: incomplete coverage of consolidated central government and general government in GFS; weaknesses in classification and sectorization in balance of payments, producer prices, and monetary statistics. - Persistent misclassifications in the financial account of the balance of payments. - Basis for recording across datasets could be brought closer to internationally accepted guidelines. - National Accounts - Compiled broadly in accordance with the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA). - GDP by production and expenditure estimated at current, previous year, and constant (1994) prices within supply‑and‑use framework. - Quarterly GDP compiled but not disseminated. - Excessive use of fixed coefficients and ratios more than five years old; reference period should be updated. - No revision studies for routine changes or base year updates; revision cycle follows a regular schedule but is not made public. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Concepts and definitions generally in line with the CPI Manual, 2004. - CPI weights cover urban households; rural households excluded; owner‑occupied housing excluded. - Monthly CPI published on the 10th day following the reference month; monthly CPI data are final. - CPI not released to all users simultaneously; advanced detailed publication provided to selected government agencies. - Producer Price Index (PPI) - PPIs and input price indices based on concepts consistent with 1993 SNA and PPI Manual 2004. - Manufacturing coverage incomplete (50 percent of total sales) as sample includes only urban enterprises with more than 30 employees. - PPI weights outdated (1994=100); weights not revised since 1994. - Monthly PPI published between the 15th and the 20th day following the reference month. - Monetary statistics - Concepts broadly consistent with the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM) 2000, but accrual recording not fully applied; CBN securities recorded at face value without discount deduction. - Other Depository Corporations Survey (ODCS) excludes credit and savings cooperatives. - Data compilation for CBN largely automated; ODC data compiled using electronic and manual techniques. - Balance of payments - Broadly follows BPM5 with important exceptions: some valuation adjustments not in line with BPM5; definition of international reserves includes capital contributions and some escrow accounts. - IIP not compiled (partial IIP published later). - Coverage of private sector incomplete in current and financial account; major weaknesses in services and compensation of border employees. ### Accuracy and reliability — dataset-specific notes - CPI and GFS - Source data are particularly well developed in CPI and GFS, which rely on administrative data. - National accounts and balance of payments - Data shortcomings explained by lack of priority for conducting surveys. - PPI - Significant deficiencies in statistical techniques; weights are outdated and validation processes do not ensure minimal errors. - Monetary statistics - Compilation not fully automated; data for ODCs derived using both automated and manual techniques. - Revision practices - With the exception of the CPI, revision studies are not conducted. - Assessment and validation processes - Suitable processes for assessment and validation of source data are in place for several datasets, but intermediate results are not always validated against other sources. ### Serviceability - Frequency and timeliness of disseminated data meet or exceed GDDS recommendations. - Consistency standards broadly met for all datasets, with differences between fiscal and monetary data on financing of the restricted nonfinancial public sector. - Shortcomings in revision policy and practice; revisions are not always identified or explained to the public. ### Accessibility - Commendable efforts to improve accessibility of macroeconomic data. - A compendium of methodological notes for all six macroeconomic datasets is available on the Internet; a contact name is identified for each statistical sector. - Advance release calendars are not published. - Further improvements needed to present more detailed data to facilitate easy use and proper interpretation. ### Users’ views (survey results and consultations) - A user survey (with assistance of the CBN) and meetings with users elicited mostly satisfaction with official macroeconomic statistics, coupled with identified areas for improvement. - Users requested: - More detail and better periodicity and timeliness, especially for prices and national accounts. - Expanded coverage of balance of payments and national accounts. - More information on statistical notes in datasets, advance release calendars, and data revisions. - Reliable employment statistics. - Users were mostly satisfied with accessibility via electronic means, publications, and press releases. ### DQAF summary results (selected indicators) - Key to symbols: O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO = Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not Observed; NA = Not Applicable. - Selected dimension outcomes across datasets (national accounts; CPI; PPI; GFS; Monetary; Balance of Payments): - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: LO across all six datasets. - 0.2 Resources: O for national accounts; LO for CPI, PPI, GFS, Monetary, Balance of Payments. - 0.3 Relevance: LO (national accounts); LO (CPI); LO (PPI); LNO (GFS); LO (Monetary); LO (Balance of Payments). - 1.1 Professionalism: O across all six datasets. - 1.2 Transparency: O (national accounts); LO (CPI); O (PPI); LO (GFS); LO (Monetary); O (Balance of Payments). - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: O (national accounts); O (CPI); LO (PPI); LO (GFS); O (Monetary); LO (Balance of Payments). - 2.2 Scope: O (national accounts); LO (CPI); LNO (PPI); LNO (GFS); LO (Monetary); LO (Balance of Payments). - 3.1 Source data: LO (national accounts); LO (CPI); LO (PPI); O (GFS); LO (Monetary); LO (Balance of Payments). - 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness: O across all six datasets. - 4.3 Revision policy and practice: LO (national accounts); O (CPI); LNO (PPI); LNO (GFS); LO (Monetary); LO (Balance of Payments). - 5.1 Data accessibility: LO (national accounts); LO (CPI); LO (PPI); O (GFS); LO (Monetary); LO (Balance of Payments). - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: LO (national accounts); O (CPI); LO (PPI); LO (GFS); LO (Monetary); LO (Balance of Payments). - 5.3 Assistance to users: O across all six datasets. ### Key findings and priority needs (implicit from assessments) - Strengthen legal framework to assign clear compilation responsibilities among agencies (revision to law of 1979/CBN Organic Law). - Secure sustainable financing for NISC to support censuses and surveys (cartographic, housing, population). - Reduce reliance on contractual staff for price indices at the CBN to preserve institutional expertise. - Develop a relational database for MFPC GFS compilation and widen coverage to consolidated central government and general government. - Improve classification/sectorization and reduce misclassifications in balance of payments, producer prices, and monetary statistics. - Update PPI weights and strengthen validation and statistical techniques for the PPI. - Institute systematic revision studies (beyond CPI) and publish advance release calendars and revision explanations to enhance transparency. - Enhance user consultation processes to improve relevance and dissemination of more detailed data (including employment statistics). ### Cross-cutting recommendations (selected, from Section 11) - Formalize participation in the GDDS as soon as possible. - Proceed with the amendment to the Law of the CBN aimed at reinforcing the legal basis for the compilation and dissemination of macroeconomic data. - Prepare and disseminate advance release calendars. - Give advance notice in all statistical sectors of changes in methodology, source data, and the statistical techniques employed to produce macroeconomic statistics. - Make widely available an explicit statistical revisions policy, identifying which data have been revised significantly and describing the data revision procedures employed. - Review the legal environment of the MFPC to strengthen its authority to get primary data from all nonfinancial public sector units in a timely manner. ### High-priority dataset actions (selected) - National Accounts - Give priority to the planned adoption of a new reference year and the compilation of institutional sector accounts. - Finalize the compilation of quarterly accounts and disseminate annual survey data more timely. - Prices Indices - Allocate more staff to the Department of Income and Deflators (DID) and to the processing unit of the Executive Coordination of National Surveys (ECNS); update computers’ capacity. - Apply standard COICOP and ISIC Rev. 3 classifications; integrate PPIs across sectors; change PPI base year and update weights; prepare and release detailed PPI publication with trend analysis. - Produce and disseminate seasonally adjusted data and avoid privileged pre-release access to CPI. - Government Finance Statistics - Establish a formal plan to apply GFSM 2001 in stages and develop bridge tables linking budget chart of accounts with GFSM 2001. - Assign more resources in MFPC to obtain complete coverage of consolidated central government, general government, and nonfinancial public sector. - Disseminate GFS metadata oriented to guide users and establish a GFS revision policy. - Monetary Statistics - Continue implementation plan to adopt MFSM methodology. - Widen coverage of Depository Corporations Survey to include credit and savings cooperatives. - Broaden sectorization of ODCs to permit proper identification of net credit to central government. - Balance of Payments - Implement national presentation following BPM5 classifications, with emphasis on financial account functional and institutional categories and separation of assets and liabilities. - Adjust reserve assets by excluding escrow account balances; extend coverage of income debit, services, and external liabilities; expand private sector transaction coverage; elaborate and disseminate the IIP partially based on available data. ### Selected comparative timeliness and periodicity with GDDS (Appendix I highlights) - Real sector: National Accounts — GDDS timeliness: 10–14 months; Nicaragua timeliness: 7 months. - Fiscal sector: Central govt. operations — GDDS expected timeliness: 6–9 months; Nicaragua actual timeliness: 5 weeks. - Financial sector: Depository Corporations Survey — GDDS timeliness: 2–3 months; Nicaragua timeliness: 2 months. - External sector: Balance of payments — GDDS timeliness: 6–9 months; Nicaragua timeliness: 3/4 M – 6/9 months. - Price indices: Consumer price index — GDDS timeliness: 1–2 months; Nicaragua timeliness: 10–15 days. - International reserves: Gross official reserves denominated in U.S. dollars — GDDS timeliness: D; Nicaragua timeliness: 1–4 weeks; Nicaragua daily timeliness entry: 1D. ### Authorities’ implementation notes and progress (selected) - Mission visited Nicaragua January 11–26, 2005. - As of February 25, 2005, Nicaragua subscribed to the GDDS. - CBN has begun changing the base year for national accounts from 1994 to 2005; planned surveys for farm sector and households. - Livestock costs survey work began in July (2005 context). - Household income and expenditure survey questionnaire and instructions prepared for application beginning in January 2006. - Continuous incoming and outgoing tourism survey initiated in July 2004; urban and rural employment survey expanded in November 2004. - IMF technical assistance on quarterly accounts: June 6–17 (2005 context); training fellowship at IBGE in March 2004. - Further improvements planned include balance sheets and quarterly Supply and Use Tables. *Source: DQAF July 2003—Summary Results (content unit: _cr05426 - 1. DQAF July 2003—Summary Results).* ### 1. DQAF July 2003—Summary Results................................................................................7 ### _cr05426 - 1. DQAF July 2003—Summary Results................................................................................7 ### Overall assessment - Nicaragua is well advanced toward participating in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). - Metadata for macroeconomic and socio-demographic statistics have been drafted and plans for improvement formulated. - Participation can occur possibly by end-February 2005 once the metadata to be posted on the Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) have been approved by the Nicaraguan authorities. - The ROSC data module describes a statistical system underpinned by a legal framework sufficient to provide the necessary authority for the collection and compilation of statistics, with gaps in terms and conditions for official statistics. - Authorities are committed to disseminating macroeconomic statistics; scope exists to improve methodological basis and source data underpinning most datasets. - All statistical agencies are well placed to make further progress based on ongoing initiatives and recent measures. ### Prerequisites of quality and assurances of integrity (by agency) - National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (NISC) - Operates under law of 1979 providing de facto independence and a coordinating role within the National Statistical System (NSS). - Reliance on external financing, limited government appropriation, and few ad hoc assignments from the central bank; resources insufficient for compiling intermediate data for macroeconomic statistics such as cartographic and housing and population censuses. - Relevance promoted mainly by feedback from other statistical agencies rather than end users. - Appropriate quality management processes in place; professionalism and ethical standards fostered. - Need for greater transparency in the data compilation process through increased public dissemination. - Central Bank of Nicaragua (CBN) - Law of the Central Bank of Nicaragua is legal basis for collection and production of macroeconomic data; CBN compiles and disseminates national accounts, balance of payments, prices, monetary, and government finance statistics. - Law lacks clear assignment of compilation responsibilities among statistical agencies. - Resources generally adequate, but heavy reliance on contractual employees for price indices is a risk to continuity of expertise. - Human resources appear insufficient for compilation of prices and balance of payments statistics. - Informal contacts with users assist relevance; four-year strategic planning system monitors data quality and promotes adoption of international practices. - CBN publishes relevant legislation and provides data simultaneously to all users, although advance release to government officials on request may occur without public awareness. - Recruitment of qualified staff and ethical standards are in place. - Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (MFPC) - Institutional environment supports compilation of budgetary transactions but not statistics for general government and nonfinancial public enterprises. - Good arrangements for data sharing among agencies; staff and computing resources sufficient, but urgent need for development of a relational database. - GFS compilers lack systematic consultation with users; relevance could be enhanced by more active consultation. - Professional independence of SIGFA unit contributes to objectivity; strong culture of ethical standards. - Transparency of fiscal data could be enhanced by publishing compilation and dissemination practices and procedures. ### Methodological soundness (datasets) - General - Methodological soundness is generally endorsed across methodological areas. - Deviations exist in concepts and definitions, scope, and sectorization. - Notable weaknesses: incomplete coverage of consolidated central government and general government in GFS; weaknesses in classification and sectorization in balance of payments, producer prices, and monetary statistics. - Persistent misclassifications in the financial account of the balance of payments. - Basis for recording across datasets could be brought closer to internationally accepted guidelines. ### Accuracy and reliability (datasets) - CPI and GFS - Source data are particularly well developed in CPI and GFS, which rely on administrative data. - National accounts and balance of payments - Data shortcomings explained by lack of priority for conducting surveys. - PPI - Significant deficiencies in statistical techniques; weights are outdated and validation processes do not ensure minimal errors. - Monetary statistics - Compilation not fully automated; data for Other Depository Corporations (ODCs) derived using both automated and manual techniques. - Revision practices - With the exception of the CPI, revision studies are not conducted. - Assessment and validation processes - Suitable processes for assessment and validation of source data are in place for several datasets. ### Serviceability - Frequency and timeliness of disseminated data meet or exceed GDDS recommendations. - Consistency standards broadly met for all datasets, with differences between fiscal and monetary data on financing of the restricted nonfinancial public sector. - Shortcomings in revision policy and practice; revisions are not always identified or explained to the public. ### Accessibility - Commendable efforts to improve accessibility of macroeconomic data. - A compendium of methodological notes for all six macroeconomic datasets is available on the Internet; a contact name is identified for each statistical sector. - Advance release calendars are not published. - Further improvements needed to present more detailed data to facilitate easy use and proper interpretation. ### Users’ views - A user survey (with assistance of the CBN) and meetings with users elicited mostly satisfaction with official macroeconomic statistics, coupled with identified areas for improvement. - Users requested: - More detail and better periodicity and timeliness, especially for prices and national accounts. - Expanded coverage of balance of payments and national accounts. - More information on statistical notes in datasets, advance release calendars, and data revisions. - Reliable employment statistics. - Users were mostly satisfied with accessibility via electronic means, publications, and press releases. ### DQAF summary results (selected indicators from Table 1) - Key to symbols: O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO = Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not Observed; NA = Not Applicable. - Selected dimension outcomes across datasets (national accounts; CPI; PPI; GFS; Monetary; Balance of Payments): - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: LO across all six datasets. - 0.2 Resources: O for national accounts; LO for CPI, PPI, GFS, Monetary, Balance of Payments. - 0.3 Relevance: LO (national accounts); LO (CPI); LO (PPI); LNO (GFS); LO (Monetary); LO (Balance of Payments). - 1.1 Professionalism: O across all six datasets. - 1.2 Transparency: O (national accounts); LO (CPI); O (PPI); LO (GFS); LO (Monetary); O (Balance of Payments). - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: O (national accounts); O (CPI); LO (PPI); LO (GFS); O (Monetary); LO (Balance of Payments). - 2.2 Scope: O (national accounts); LO (CPI); LNO (PPI); LNO (GFS); LO (Monetary); LO (Balance of Payments). - 3.1 Source data: LO (national accounts); LO (CPI); LO (PPI); O (GFS); LO (Monetary); LO (Balance of Payments). - 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness: O across all six datasets. - 4.3 Revision policy and practice: LO (national accounts); O (CPI); LNO (PPI); LNO (GFS); LO (Monetary); LO (Balance of Payments). - 5.1 Data accessibility: LO (national accounts); LO (CPI); LO (PPI); O (GFS); LO (Monetary); LO (Balance of Payments). - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: LO (national accounts); O (CPI); LO (PPI); LO (GFS); LO (Monetary); LO (Balance of Payments). - 5.3 Assistance to users: O across all six datasets. ### Key findings and priority needs (implicit from assessments) - Strengthen legal framework (revision to law of 1979) to assign clear compilation responsibilities among agencies. - Secure sustainable financing for NISC to support censuses and surveys (cartographic, housing, population). - Reduce reliance on contractual staff for price indices at the CBN to preserve institutional expertise. - Develop a relational database for MFPC GFS compilation and widen coverage to consolidated central government and general government. - Improve classification/sectorization and reduce misclassifications in balance of payments, producer prices, and monetary statistics. - Update PPI weights and strengthen validation and statistical techniques for the PPI. - Institute systematic revision studies (beyond CPI) and publish advance release calendars and revision explanations to enhance transparency. - Enhance user consultation processes to improve relevance and dissemination of more detailed data (including employment statistics). *Source: DQAF July 2003—Summary Results (content unit: _cr05426 - 1. DQAF July 2003—Summary Results................................................................................7).* ### 0. Prerequisites of quality ### 0. Prerequisites of quality ### Assurances of integrity — Central Bank of Nicaragua (CBN) - Legal and institutional environment - The Law of the CBN mandates data compilation of macroeconomic statistics but does not specify dissemination responsibilities other than the obligation to present an annual report to the National Assembly, in accordance with Article 138 of the Constitution. - The CBN compiles and disseminates national accounts, balance of payments, prices, monetary and consolidated fiscal statistics; data‑gathering capacity is supported by NISC law. - Banking and supervisory legislation requires compulsory reporting by financial institutions to the Superintendency of Banks and Other Financial Institutions (SBOFI). - Legal provisions protect confidentiality of individual data; related provisions are communicated to data suppliers. - Coordination within CBN units is adequate, particularly between the Accounting and Monetary Programming departments through the Unified Data Base (UDB); other statistical units are not fully automated. - Arrangements exist with SB OFI, the Customs Office, and the NISC to facilitate data sharing, but such arrangements are not legal or official and are not sufficiently effective. - Resources - Staff, computing, and financing are broadly adequate, particularly for monetary statistics. - Core staff with adequate experience and training is maintained for compilation; heavy reliance on temporary employees for price indices leaves only two CBN officials in charge of analysis and dissemination of price statistics. - Balance of payments production is understaffed. - Current staff face distracting noncompiling tasks; anticipated insufficiency of staff and computing resources for compilation and dissemination of an expanded PPI that meets international standards and for upcoming balance of payments tasks. - Relevance and quality management - Relevance is sought via informal contact with users and monitoring of website/library requests; no formal and regular consultation with NSS participants to discuss statistical development. - CBN uses a four‑year strategic planning system, regularly evaluated against budget constraints and priorities; need for formal processes and routines for quality control. - Professionalism and transparency - CBN Law provides technical independence and staff autonomy; recruitment focuses on relevant academic skills; staff receive external courses and on‑the‑job training. - Compilers are exempt from outside interference; CBN issues official responses when significant public misinterpretation occurs. - Legislation governing CBN statistical activities is publicly available; publications indicate the responsible department. - Methodological Notes provide contact addresses for comments; government agencies may have prerelease access subject to formal request, but the public is not informed of this practice. - Ethical standards - Staff ethics established in the Law of the CBN and Staff Regulations covering conflict of interest, outside employment, and disciplinary actions; staff integrity, professional competence, and confidentiality requirements are emphasized to new staff and periodically reminded. ### Assurances of integrity — Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (MFPC) - Legal and institutional environment - MFPC provides an appropriate institutional environment for compiling budgetary transactions data, but not for compiling GFS for general government and/or the nonfinancial public sector. - Legal framework lacks emphasis on disseminating fiscal statistics to the public at large. - Environment fosters data sharing among agencies involved in GFS compilation; consolidation of central government statistics by the CBN is partial due to MFPC’s lack of authority to collect data from autonomous and decentralized units and nonfinancial public enterprises. - Confidentiality of reported data protected by the Law on Civil Service. - Resources - Under normal circumstances, units compiling GFS have adequate personnel and material resources, including sufficient computing equipment. - General Budget Directorate (GBD) lacks a relational database to store chronological time series and generate analytical tables; only three staff members compile GFS. - Few compilers trained in the Manual on Government Finance Statistics, 1986 (GFSM 1986); none have attended suitable training in GFSM 2001. - No system to ensure efficient use of resources or to measure the cost of statistical work. - Relevance and quality management - MFPC is open to feedback from GFS users but does not actively seek comments or have mechanisms to identify new/emerging data requirements. - Budgetary statistics are mainly relevant for monitoring annual budget execution; MFPC does not prepare GFS for general government and/or the nonfinancial public sector. - Quality of central government budgetary data is supported by SIGFA procedures; improvements underway via new statistical sub‑modules but no formal quality management program. - Professionalism, transparency, and ethics - Law of Civil Service recognizes professionalism; no specific laws guaranteeing professional independence of GFS compilers though no attempts to influence outputs have been observed. - Public access to budget legislation and SIGFA information exists, but MFPC does not make public the terms and conditions under which GFS are collected, compiled, and disseminated; users are not informed that central government coverage is incomplete and that CBN disseminates more complete coverage for some central government data. - Behavior of MFPC staff governed by Law of Civil Service; no specific code of conduct exists but umbrella laws reinforce ethical standards. ### Methodological soundness — National Accounts - Concepts and definitions - National accounts compiled broadly in accordance with the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA). - Scope and classification - GDP by production and expenditure estimated at current, previous year, and constant (1994) prices within supply‑and‑use framework. - Quarterly GDP compiled but not disseminated. - Classification systems correspond strongly with ISIC Rev. 3 and CPC; COFOG and national COICOP used. - Basis for recording and source data - Recording broadly accords with accrual and valuation principles of 1993 SNA, but government and some external transactions recorded on a cash basis; corrections made when transfer prices detected. - Monthly, quarterly, and annual surveys compiled by special CBN unit; 1996 directory of establishments to be fully updated in 2006. - Annual survey adequate for production accounts and supply‑and‑use tables; household surveys regular but informal activity coverage needs improvement. - Statistical techniques and validation - Good use of supply‑and‑use tables, but excessive use of fixed coefficients and ratios more than five years old; reference period should be updated. - Estimates validated against independent data sources; sampling errors calculated for household and main surveys. - Revisions, periodicity, and dissemination - No revision studies for routine changes or base year updates. - Periodicity and timeliness in line with GDDS requirements. - Revision cycle follows a regular schedule but is not made public; final revised data have not been disseminated since 2000; documentation analyzing causes for revisions not available. - National accounts estimates for previous year included in the Annual Report of the CBN released in March every year; revised figures disseminated in July on the CBN’s website www.bcn.gob.ni. - Quarterly data not disseminated; advance release calendar not disseminated. - Metadata and user assistance - National Accounts System of Nicaragua, Base year 1994 and Methodological Notes 2004, Economic indicators, published and accessible on CBN’s website; more detailed metadata for specialized users needed. - Prompt user service available via a contact point on the Bank’s website. ### Methodological soundness — Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Concepts, scope, and classification - Concepts and definitions generally in line with the CPI Manual, 2004; prices and weights follow 1993 SNA for monetary consumption expenditure. - CPI weights cover urban households; rural households excluded; owner‑occupied housing excluded. - CPI classified using Nicaraguan version of COICOP with departures (e.g., tobacco included in miscellaneous; hotels and restaurants not classified in corresponding groups). - Basis for recording and source data - Prices and weights recorded using market or transaction values including discounts, but prices do not include discounts obtained through bargaining. - 1998–99 NSHIE sampling frame based on 1995 population census with updated maps; rural expenditure not covered. - Accuracy and statistical techniques - Validation limited to routine checks for extreme values, consistency, and incompleteness; nonsampling errors not calculated. - Use of geometric mean for price changes is sound; treatment of missing prices, quality adjustment, and new products needs improvement. - CPI compared with PPI; price data validated with ministries and other surveys. - Revisions, periodicity, and dissemination - Monthly CPI data are final; major revision occurred in 1999; schedule for revising index every five years. - Price collection is daily; monthly CPI published on the 10th day following the reference month, exceeding GDDS and SDDS standards. - CPI posted on CBN’s website and an executive summary presented to the press; more comprehensive statistics in hard copy, but time series and detail are insufficient and certain series (food items) not provided in seasonally adjusted form. - CPI not released to all users simultaneously; a more detailed unreleased publication provided to selected government agencies. - Metadata and user assistance - Summary metadata on CPI available on CBN’s website; detailed methodology on 1998-99 NSHIE available in hard copy and CD. - Assistance to users provided through Department of Public Service in the Library; assistance not periodically evaluated. - Continuous historical series with 1999=100 as reference base available up to December 2004; linked to previous series with 1994=100. ### Methodological soundness — Producer Price Index (PPI) - Concepts, scope, and classification - PPIs and input price indices based on concepts consistent with 1993 SNA and the new PPI Manual 2004. - Only sales included in PPI weights; changes in inventories and own‑account production excluded. - PPIs cover agriculture (including livestock), fishing, and manufacturing; manufacturing coverage incomplete (50 percent of total sales) as sample includes only urban enterprises with more than 30 employees. - Free zones and goods for processing (Maquila) excluded except garment enterprises; exports were recently included. - PPI classified using Nicaraguan version of ISIC Rev. 3 and CPC with some departures for industrial services. - Basis for recording and source data - Output prices and weights recorded using factory‑gate market prices (excluding taxes); input price weights do not include distribution margins and non‑deductible VAT. - Urban 2000 business register not updated regularly; household and small enterprises excluded from sample. - Source data broadly adequate; unusually large movements traced back to enterprises; post‑enumeration checks made. - Accuracy and statistical techniques - Nonresponse rates to price surveys are low but not monitored; sampling and nonsampling errors not calculated. - PPI weights outdated (1994=100); grossing‑up factors not used; use of geometric mean for price changes and chain linking is sound. - Treatment of missing prices, quality adjustment, and new products need improvement; current processing does not ensure minimal coding/editing/tabulation errors—automatic validation and cross‑checking procedures to be implemented. - Revisions, periodicity, and dissemination - Monthly PPI data are final; weights not revised since 1994 and not periodically assessed for bias. - Price collection daily; monthly PPI published between the 15th and the 20th day following the reference month, exceeding GDDS and meeting SDDS standards. - No press release or analysis accompanying PPI; PPIs only disseminated on CBN’s website; certain series not seasonally adjusted. - Time series available from January 1994 up to December 2004 on the CBN’s website. - Metadata and user assistance - Summary metadata on PPIs available on CBN’s website; no detailed documentation for specialized users. - Assistance available through Department of Public Service in the Library; assistance not periodically evaluated. ### Government Finance Statistics (GFS) — key quality points - MFPC compiles budgetary transactions but not full GFS for general government and/or the nonfinancial public sector. - Coverage gaps: consolidation of central government statistics incomplete; CBN disseminates more complete coverage for some central government data. - GBD lacks relational database; staffing limited to three compilers for GFS. - Training gaps: few experienced compilers familiar with GFSM 1986; none trained in GFSM 2001. - Transparency gaps: MFPC does not make public terms and conditions of GFS collection/compilation; users unaware of incomplete central government coverage. *Source: _cr05426 - 0. Prerequisites of quality (IMF).* ### 2. Methodological soundness ### _cr05426 - 2. Methodological soundness ### Fiscal statistics — Methodological soundness, accuracy, serviceability, accessibility - Concepts and definitions - Consistent with GFSM 1986. - "There is no plan to implement GFSM 2001." - Scope and coverage - Fiscal statistics disseminated by the MFPC cover budgetary operations only. - CBN data for the restricted nonfinancial public sector comprise the budgetary central government, the NISS, the Managua Alcaldia (municipality), and two nonfinancial public corporations only. - Coverage of the consolidated central government and general government is incomplete. - Government domestic debt data include debt to the NISS. - Classification and sectorization - Fiscal statistics lack presentation of data for consolidated central government and general government. - CBN fiscal data are classified according to the GFSM 2001. - Basis for recording and valuation - Flows are valued at market prices. - Debt is valued in accordance with the GFSM 1986. - Data on flows are compiled on a cash basis; part of government expenditure is on an accrual basis. - Both the MFPC and the CBN compile data on a gross or net basis according to the methodology of the GFSM 1986. - Source data and assessment - Source data for the restricted NFPS are comprehensive and timely. - Source classification codes are in line with the GFSM 1986. - The MFPC and CBN assess the data compiled by SIGFA on a monthly basis; processes ensure appropriate validation and cross checking. - Statistical techniques and adjustments - Procedures for adjustments and valuation followed by MFPC and CBN are in line with recommendations of the GFSM 1986. - Financing and debt data are adjusted on a monthly basis after reconciling data compiled by the MFPD and CBN; adjustments usually replace preliminary data with final data. - Revision studies and practices - No systematic revision studies are made by the MFPC. - The CBN makes revision studies on a regular basis; detected errors and omissions are corrected. - Revised or provisional data are clearly identified in publications; however, a revision policy has not been explicitly identified in the MFPC or CBN. - Periodicity, timeliness, consistency, and reconciliation - The MFPC and CBN meet dissemination standards regarding periodicity and timelines. - Detailed data compiled by MFPC and CBN are consistent with aggregated data presented in summary tables. - Monetary and fiscal accounts do not reconcile due to different coverage of the nonfinancial public sector. - Users can compare new data with chronological data series in publications. - Data and metadata accessibility; user assistance - Fiscal statistics are disseminated through regular publications of the CBN and websites of the MFPD and CBN; websites offer data published in a clear format for analytical purposes. - MFPC has published various procedures manuals for the budget process and SIGFA procedures, but these manuals "are not user friendly." - The CBN publishes metadata indicating methodology and classifications used; CBN’s detailed data are designed to meet the needs of all users. - MFPC disseminates detailed statistics but these are "not adapted to the needs of the public." - MFPC has no catalog of publications, though ministry websites include directly accessible documents. - The CBN publishes a catalog of publications that is updated frequently. - Both MFPC and the CBN provide names or electronic addresses to obtain support. ### Monetary statistics — Methodological soundness, accuracy, serviceability, accessibility - Concepts, definitions, scope, and classification - Concepts and definitions used for compiling monetary statistics are, in general, consistent with the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM) of 2000. - Scope of the Central Bank Survey (CBS) is in line with the MFSM. - The Other Depository Corporations Survey (ODCS) excludes the accounts of credit and savings cooperatives, which are deposit-taking corporations. - Classification/sectorization principles are broadly consistent with MFSM guidelines; the residency criterion is clearly followed. - Further improvements in sectorization of accounts of the ODCs would improve usefulness, particularly to assess net credit to central government. - Basis for recording - Basis for recording is broadly consistent with the MFSM; market prices used when possible. - CBN securities are recorded at face value without deducting the discount; interest is recorded under liabilities, but adjusted to an accrual basis at the end of the month. - Grossing and netting procedures largely follow the MFSM. - Daily and weekly statistics are not adjusted to an accrual basis. - Source data and assessment - Source data derive from comprehensive data collection programs; source data are timely and provide reasonably good approximation of MFSM concepts and definitions. - Some sectorization problems arise due to insufficient detail in ODC data sources. - Monetary statistics compilers undertake regular assessment and validation of source data; ongoing communication with the SBOFI exists. - Statistical techniques and compilation - Sectoral balances and surveys for CBN and ODCs are produced in separate modules but follow similar concepts and definitions. - Data compilation for the CBN is largely automated; ODC data are compiled using electronic and manual techniques, which are prone to errors. - Intermediate data have built-in checks calculating discrepancies for the relevant period; there are no automatic checks to monitor time-series trends. - In general, intermediate results are not validated against other sources of information. - Revision studies; periodicity and timeliness - Revision studies are not conducted on a regular basis. - Periodicity is monthly and timeliness is two months, meeting GDDS recommendations. - Monthly data are considered final and revisions are rare. - Preliminary daily and weekly data with narrower coverage are produced and disseminated on the CBN’s website. - Consistency and reconciliations - Statistics currently published are consistent within the dataset and over a reasonable period of time. - Data available from December 2001 follow largely the MFSM methodology and have consistent institutional coverage; data prior to December 2001 follow a different methodology. - Monetary statistics are reconcilable with balance of payments statistics. - Reconciliation with fiscal data poses problems mainly due to differences in institutional coverage, basis for recording, and sectorization. - Data and metadata accessibility; user assistance - Data are available to all users simultaneously on the CBN’s website. - There is no advance release calendar but the CBN follows an internal publications schedule. - Monthly data published in Indicadores Economicos include numerous tables and some charts that facilitate interpretation. - Some important indicators are not separately identified in the DCS (e.g., net credit to central government). - Statistics presented in the English section of the CBN’s website are outdated as the compilation of those series has been discontinued; users are not informed of this practice. - Notas Metodológicas describing methodology are available on the CBN’s website; they explain differences between current and former datasets but "does not satisfy fully the needs of specialized users." - Assistance to users is available through CBN contact points; other publications and information are available upon request. ### Balance of payments statistics — Methodological soundness, accuracy, serviceability, accessibility - Concepts and definitions and scope - Balance of payments statistics broadly follow concepts and definitions set out in BPM5, with important exceptions: - Some valuation adjustments are not in line with BPM5. - Definition of international reserves includes capital contributions to some international organizations and some escrow accounts. - The IIP is not compiled. - Resident institutional units are defined in conformity with BPM5 concepts of economic territory, residency, and center of economic interest. - Coverage of the private sector is incomplete in both the current and financial account. - Major coverage weaknesses exist in services, compensation of border employees (border, seasonal, and other short-term workers), and financial transactions. - Classification and basis for recording - National presentation departs from the classification recommended by BPM5, particularly in the financial account. - Guidelines on classification of resident institutional sectors and functional categories are not followed in the financial account. - Basis for recording is mixed: some transactions are valued at market prices; services and income of public external debt are recorded on a cash basis, while other income transactions are recorded on an accrual basis. - Imports of goods are recorded when import taxes are paid. - Source data, assessment, and statistical techniques - Source data are generally adequate and derived from collection programs; however, survey data are incomplete and supplemented by administrative records. - There are comprehensive checks for internal consistency, comparisons with other sources, and routine queries when large transactions are detected. - Compilation procedures for customs records are received electronically to minimize processing errors; similar procedures exist with other government agencies. - No smuggling and border trade estimations are made. - Private Sector Interest data are not cross checked with income taxation registers from GFS. - Statistical techniques are sound and generally consistent with international practices. - Assessment and validation of outputs; revision studies - Intermediate results and statistical outputs are assessed and validated with related indicators; regional trade data are validated using partner country information. - No comparisons are made between external debt data compiled jointly by the BIS, IMF, OECD, and World Bank. - The direction and magnitude of revisions of preliminary data are evaluated; however, no formal revision studies are conducted to keep a record of revisions. - Periodicity, timeliness, consistency, and reconciliation - Periodicity and timeliness are in line with GDDS recommendations. - Data are consistent internally and over time, and are reconcilable with foreign trade, monetary, and external debt statistics. - Revision policy and practice are limited by the absence of a regular and transparent revision schedule. - Studies and analyses of differences between revised and preliminary data are not published but contribute to methodological consultations with other compiling agencies. - Data and metadata accessibility; user assistance - Data access is provided through the CBN’s website and in hard-copy publications in several formats and aggregation levels. - Data do not allow international comparisons, particularly on the financial account. - Detailed tables on external trade, services, and public external debt transactions are available. - There is no advance release calendar. - Metadata on the balance of payments are available and plans for achieving internationally accepted standards are mentioned. - Working papers or other specialized studies are not disseminated. - Balance of payments metadata have been prepared in the context of Nicaragua’s GDDS participation. - A general note indicates the CBN is the contact source with an e-mail address in the metadata; a specific contact person within the balance of payments unit is identified. *Source: _cr05426 - 2. Methodological soundness* ### 11. Based on the review of Nicaragua’s statistical practices, discussions with the ### _cr05426 - 11. Based on the review of Nicaragua’s statistical practices, discussions with the ### Cross-cutting recommendations - Formalize participation in the GDDS as soon as possible. - Proceed with the amendment to the Law of the CBN aimed at reinforcing the legal basis for the compilation and dissemination of macroeconomic data. - Prepare and disseminate advance release calendars. - Give advance notice in all statistical sectors of changes in methodology, source data, and the statistical techniques employed to produce macroeconomic statistics. - Make widely available an explicit statistical revisions policy, identifying which data have been revised significantly and describing the data revision procedures employed. - Review the legal environment of the MFPC to strengthen its authority to get primary data from all nonfinancial public sector units in a timely manner. ### National Accounts High priority - Give priority to the planned adoption of a new reference year and the compilation of institutional sector accounts. - Finalize the compilation of quarterly accounts. - Disseminate annual survey data on a more timely basis and use it to generate final revised national accounts data. Other - Develop better source data for services. - Use the data on inputs from the annual surveys, to measure directly, as far as possible, the intermediate consumption at current prices in the supply-and-use table. - Use the available source data from the National Households Living Standard Survey to measure the level of informal occupation and its generated income, after analyzing sampling implications. Key implementation notes from authorities (selected) - The mission visited Nicaragua during the period of January 11–26, 2005. - As of February 25, 2005, Nicaragua subscribed to the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). - The Central Bank of Nicaragua has begun changing the base year for the national accounts from 1994 to 2005 and planned surveys for the farm sector and households. - Livestock costs survey work began in July (year in source context: 2005). - Household income and expenditure survey questionnaire and instructions prepared for application beginning in January 2006. - Continuous incoming and outgoing tourism survey initiated in July 2004; urban and rural employment survey expanded in November 2004 to include a domestic tourism module. - Quarterly accounts follow the IMF’s Quarterly National Accounts Manual; IMF technical assistance mission on quarterly accounts: June 6–17 (year in source context: 2005); training fellowship at IBGE in March 2004. - Future improvements include balance sheets and quarterly Supply and Use Tables. ### Prices Indices High priority - Allocate more staff to the Department of Income and Deflators (DID) and to the processing unit of the Executive Coordination of National Surveys (ECNS); update computers’ capacity; allocate more printers to the ECNS. - Apply the standard COICOP to improve classification of alcoholic beverages, tobacco, restaurants, and hotels in the CPI. - Apply the standard ISIC Rev. 3 to improve classification of PPI items. - Integrate PPIs for agriculture, mining, manufacturing, electricity, and water to compile a PPI that meets international standards. - Change the base year of the PPI, updating its weights by using output by industry including all goods producing activities. - Prepare and release a detailed publication with trend analysis for the PPI. Other - Study accuracy gains from including in the CPI weights information on rural household consumption expenditure and rentals of owner-occupied dwellings from the 2006 NSHIE. - Monitor expenditure results of ENCOVI to ensure CPI weights reflect changing consumption patterns. - Include vehicles and net purchases of second-hand goods in the CPI. - Incorporate a sample of household and small enterprises, enterprises operating in free zones, and goods for processing activities (Maquila) in the monthly price survey. - Closely monitor markets to identify need to incorporate new products and quality changes in both indices; prepare a plan to make related changes; improve treatment of missing prices. - Produce and disseminate seasonally adjusted data. - Avoid giving privileged access to CPI data to governmental agencies before releasing the index and release the detailed CPI publication to the public. Authority progress and plans (selected) - Preparing the Household Income and Expenditure Survey for 2006; results will provide the basis for changing the reference year for the CPI. - Working on weighting matrix for aggregating producer price indices based on Supply and Use Table; plan to change PPI base year when national accounts base year changes. ### Government Finance Statistics High priority - Establish a formal plan to apply in stages the implementation of GFSM 2001, including development of bridge tables linking the budget chart of accounts with GFSM 2001 classifications. - Assign more resources in the MFPC to collection, compilation, and dissemination of fiscal statistics with complete coverage of consolidated central government, general government, and the nonfinancial public sector including the most important nonfinancial public corporations; if possible, create a ministerial unit responsible for compilation of GFS. - Disseminate on the MFPC’s website the metadata regarding GFS methodology and compilation practices oriented to guide the user of data rather than the compiler. - Establish a GFS revision policy and make it known to the public. Authority progress and plans (selected) - The Draft Reform to the Organic Law of the CBN prepared for transmission to the President and the National Assembly to strengthen legal basis for compiling primary data. - The Financial Administration and Budget System Act approved; regulations to harmonize budgets, consolidation requirements, standardize accounting terms and procedures, mandatory use of compatible information processing tools (SIGFA), budget execution reports. - Financing will be sought to strengthen statistical compilation in the General Directorate of the Budget (DGP) and to increase DGP staff participation in GFS seminar. - Begin work on adopting GFSM 2001 after budgeting process for 2006; revision of budget manuals and SIGFA procedures planned. - As of 2005 fiscal outcomes include expanded coverage for the Nonfinancial Public Sector, incorporating TELCOR, ENEL, and EPN. - Database classified in accordance with GFSM 2001 methodology for 2002, 2003, and 2004 on the CBN website and in IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Yearbook. ### Monetary Statistics High priority - Continue implementation of the work plan to adopt the MFSM methodology. - Widen coverage of the Depository Corporations Survey to include credit and savings cooperatives. - Broaden sectorization of key assets and liabilities of ODCs to permit more complete sectorization of the domestic economy, in line with the MFSM, and proper identification of net credit to the central government and to the rest of the nonfinancial public sector. Other - Prepare a medium-term plan to further expand coverage to include Other Financial Corporations (insurance companies, pension funds, stock brokers and financial auxiliaries) enabling eventual construction of a Financial Corporations Survey as recommended by the MFSM. - Improve data accessibility for monetary statistics and present separately all MFSM-recommended categories of financial assets in monetary statistics. Authority progress and plans (selected) - Examined inclusion of insurance companies and stockbrokers in "other financial corporations"; incorporation postponed pending SIBOIF amendments to accounting manuals as of 2006. - Adjustments made for identification of “net credit to central government” in Central Bank Survey and Survey of Other Depository Corporations; will prepare an additional table in the Financial System Survey showing "net credit to central government". - A technical mission from the IMF in October 2005 will review consistency of national statistics with MFSM recommendations. - Continue implementing improvements through 2005 and 2006 in line with MFSM. ### Balance of Payments Statistics High priority - Implement national presentation of balance of payments statistics following BPM5 classifications, with particular emphasis in the financial account, and distinguish clearly the functional and institutional categories separately for assets and liabilities. - Adjust reserve assets by excluding the escrow account’s balances; exclude changes not attributable to transactions from balance of payments flows. - Extend coverage of income debit, services (credit and debit) and external liabilities related to trade transactions by including accrual interest, financial services, and all external liabilities of the banking system reported from their balance sheets. - Substantially expand coverage of private sector transactions, mainly direct investment and services. - Elaborate and disseminate the International Investment Position partially based on the current available data. - Record portfolio investment transactions at market value. - Provide the Department of External Programming (DEP) access to the DMFAS system and financial statistics database. Authority progress and plans (selected) - Progress made in adjusting presentation of balance of payments to BPM5 recommendations; process to be completed by end of 2005. - Negotiated agreements to gain access to accounting statements of commercial banks and insurance companies to expand coverage of services account and financial sector assets/liabilities. - Tourism satellite account surveys available to improve travel revenue estimates. - Working with CEMLA and DFI on a program to strengthen private sector capacity to monitor and analyze external assets and liabilities; participants include Central Bank, Ministry of Development, Industry, and Trade, and National Institute of Statistics and Censuses. - Central Bank recently published the International Investment Position (partial) for Nicaragua and moved to quantify changes in CBN's reserve assets excluding transactions due to exchange-rate revaluations. - Specific projects for 2006 to improve coverage and valuation of service accounts, subject to human resources availability and training. ### Selected data coverage, periodicity, and timeliness comparisons with GDDS (Appendix I, selected entries) - Real sector: National Accounts — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity GDDS: A; Periodicity Nicaragua: A; GDDS timeliness: 10–14 months; Nicaragua timeliness: 7 months. - Fiscal sector: Central govt. operations — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity GDDS: A; Periodicity Nicaragua: A; GDDS timeliness: M, Q, A; Nicaragua timeliness: M, Q, A; GDDS expected timeliness: 6–9 months; Nicaragua actual timeliness: 5 weeks. - Financial sector: Depository Corporations Survey — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity GDDS: M; Periodicity Nicaragua: M; GDDS timeliness: 2–3 months; Nicaragua timeliness: 2 months. - External sector: Balance of payments — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity GDDS: A; Periodicity Nicaragua: A; GDDS periodicity: A, Q; Nicaragua periodicity: A, Q; GDDS timeliness: 6–9 months; Nicaragua timeliness: 3/4 M – 6/9 months. - Price indices: Consumer price index — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity GDDS: M; Periodicity Nicaragua: M; GDDS timeliness: M; Nicaragua timeliness: M; GDDS timeliness: 1–2 months; Nicaragua timeliness: 10–15 days. - International reserves: Gross official reserves denominated in U.S. dollars — Coverage: Yes; Periodicity GDDS: M; Periodicity Nicaragua: M; GDDS timeliness: D; Nicaragua timeliness: 1–4 weeks; Nicaragua daily timeliness entry: 1D. (See Appendix I table for comprehensive listings and exact GDDS vs. Nicaragua entries.) *Source: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) — IMF Statistics Department mission to Nicaragua (mission period January 11–26, 2005), including authorities’ response and implementation notes.* ### 0. Prerequisites of quality ..........................................................................130 ### 0. Prerequisites of quality ### 0.1 Legal and institutional environment - Responsibility for compiling national accounts: compiled by the CBN on the basis of its Organic Law 371 of March 2001; law authorizes CBN to collect information for statistical and macroeconomic analysis purposes. - Article 60 (CBN Organic Law 371): - Offices or units of the Central Government and municipal governments, as well as governmental credit institutions, are obliged to submit to the Central Bank such reports as the latter may request in the discharge of its duties. - Banks and any physical or juridical person with residence or domicile in Nicaraguan territory are obligated to supply the Central Bank with statistical information requested by it in the discharge of the duties conferred upon it by Law. - Information must be used solely and exclusively for the purpose of macroeconomic statistics and analysis. - Article 26/11: requires the President of the CBN to submit an annual report to the National Assembly; a section of that report is devoted to analyzing the behavior of the Nicaraguan economy based primarily on national accounts data. - Legal gap: law gives broad powers to request information but does not explicitly assign responsibility to compile and disseminate the national accounts. - Data sharing and coordination: - Interagency Commission responsible for coordinating the National Statistical System (NSS). - Working committees for each survey and census facilitate technical coordination, avoid duplication, and consider reporter burden. - Examples of technical coordination: CBN staff participation in technical committees for the Agricultural Census, staple grains production surveys, Living Standards Survey, employment survey, and Population and Housing Census (INEC conducting in 2005). - Confidentiality and statistical use: - Article 61 (CBN Organic Law): directors, officers, and employees obliged to safeguard confidentiality; violations sanctioned under Bank by-laws and criminal law. - Survey documentation informs reporters of rights/obligations and refers to Articles 60 and 61. - Internal Personnel Regulations, Article 56: digital information provided to staff is confidential and may not be disclosed even after termination of employment; violations subject to punishment in accordance with Article 61 and ordinary criminal legislation. - Access restricted to staff who require individual data; special aggregation rules to prevent residual disclosure. - Storage and retention: returned forms kept in restricted-access warehouse; hardcopy records destroyed by incineration after five years with notation kept. - Statistical reporting mandates and incentives: - Article 60 makes reporting mandatory; penalties for refusal or false/incomplete information: fine of one thousand to ten thousand córdobas for each occurrence, payable to the National Treasury Directorate General of Revenues at CBN’s request. - Implementation gap: no regulations for applying penalties; fine set in nominal terms—real value eroded by inflation. - CBN encourages cooperation by responding to complaints, indicating purpose, reducing response burden, and providing information on importance of good quality statistics; respondent inquiries processed and answered by appropriate CBN office. ### 0.2 Resources - Staffing: - National Accounts Department: professional staff of 18 persons and one secretary. - Academic qualifications: all have at least a bachelor's degree (mainly in economics); eight have done postgraduate studies; seven have master's degrees. - Staffing considered adequate for present coverage; implementing institutional sector accounts of the 1993 SNA will require resources greater than budgeted. - Planned change of base year from 1994 to 2005 will require additional staff. - Staff turnover is low; salary levels competitive with public administration conditions. - Computing and IT: - Every employee has a computer, most of them Pentium IV. - Few staff have e-mail; only the department head has Internet access. - Software used: Office 2003, Office 2000, SAS; SPSS used for processing annual survey data. - Two available printers considered sufficient. - Physical facilities and budgeting: - Physical facilities, furnishings, and equipment adequate; offices have heating and air-conditioning. - Budget allocated on basis of an annual work plan with detailed activities; 2005 budget based on programming schedule for main statistical activities over next three years; activities part of the 2005-2007 strategic plan. - Resource management: - CBN allocates resources efficiently given constraints and high cost of systematized survey processing. - External expertise used when necessary: expert hired in 2004 to evaluate methodologies and survey compilation systems, redesign survey forms, and reduce respondent burden. ### 0.3 Relevance - Monitoring user needs: - No formal mechanism for systematic consultations with users, but CBN receives demands via various means including e-mail provided on Bank's Internet site. - Methodological notes identify contact persons with name and telephone number. - National Accounts Department staff maintain contact with principal public and private users and consult interested institutions when planning new surveys and censuses. - INEC conducted a 2003 survey to determine statistical needs of major public sector institutions. - Coordinating Committee of the SEN met to implement a national statistics development strategy to meet major user demands. ### 0.4 Other quality management - Quality focus and planning: - Management sensitive to all dimensions of data quality; enhancing quality and timeliness of publications is an explicit institutional objective in CBN's strategic plan. - No permanent program for quality control of statistical products; outside technical experts engaged when specific improvements are needed. - The dissemination and revision cycle serves as a procedure for monitoring quality and explaining discrepancies between preliminary and revised estimates. - Revision cycle not regularly completed; a final consumption module was included in the 2003 employment survey to provide an annual indicator to assist constructing final consumption series for years without household income and expenditure or living standards surveys. - In 2004 monthly and quarterly survey forms were redesigned to reduce response burden and improve quality and timeliness. ### 1. Assurances of Integrity #### 1.1 Professionalism - Institutional mandate and staffing practices: - Article 1 (CBN Organic Law): CBN described as "a Decentralized Central Government Entity, which is technical in nature, of unlimited duration, and has juridical personality, its own capital, and full authority to acquire rights and incur liabilities..." - Recruitment and promotion based on professional aptitude or expertise; vacant positions open to all staff; contract hiring considers professional profiles. - Staff development and research: - Staff encouraged to attend seminars and pursue professional training: annual ECLAC meetings, regional CMCA meetings, CEMLA and CESD courses. - Staff encouraged to conduct research projects (example: study on agro-industrial production chains to guarantee internal consistency in supply and use table). - Staff prepare analytical text boxes for the CBN’s annual report. - Independence in methodological and dissemination choices: - Choice of data sources and statistical techniques based solely on measurement objectives and resulting data requirements; cost considerations may influence selection. - Decisions to disseminate based on technical and cost considerations. - Right to correct misuse: - CBN provides explanatory materials, publishes press releases, and holds training seminars for journalists to prevent misinterpretation or misuse. - Bank monitors media coverage; serious misinterpretations are met with an explanatory note. *Source: 0. Prerequisites of quality (excerpt from the detailed DQAF assessment for National Accounts).* ### 1.2 Transparency ### 1.2 Transparency ### Public availability of terms and conditions - The CBN's organic law is published on the Bank’s web page. - The web site contains information on the terms and conditions under which statistical series are compiled and disseminated. - Survey questionnaires advise respondents of those conditions, including the legal obligation to provide the information requested, and the confidential nature of that information. ### Internal governmental access prior to release - There is no governmental access to the statistics before they are released to the public. ### Identification of agency products - Data released to the public are clearly identified as the CBN’s product: every publication of the institution carries the logo and the name of the CBN. - In joint publications with INEC and other institutions, the institutions involved are identified. ### Advance notice of major methodological changes - The CBN gives advance notice to the public when major changes are introduced. - Example: change of base year in the national accounts and adoption of 1993 SNA. - Prior to presentation of the new series of national accounts (produced in May 2003), the annual report for 2002 published a text box on the methodology for the 1994-base national accounts and a table summarizing the major methodological differences between 1980-base GDP and 1994-base GDP. ### National Accounts footer reference - - 13 - National Accounts --- ### 1.3 Ethical standards ### Staff conduct and confidentiality - Chapter 8, Article 77 (i) and (j) of the Internal Personnel Regulations of the CBN requires staff: - (i) To safeguard the confidentiality of information, documents, and operations that they have knowledge of by virtue of their positions (Article 61 of the Organic Law of the CBN). - (j) Consequently, any employee who discloses information on Bank activities of which he becomes aware through his duties or otherwise is subject to the sanctions established in Article 171 (4 and 7, final part) of the Comptroller General Act (administrative sanctions), without prejudice to any applicable criminal penalties. - No Bank employee is authorized to alter or change any information received from a respondent, if this results in an improper interpretation of the data. - All new permanent staff are given a copy of the internal regulations (which are also published on the Internet). - New staff are instructed on the proper use of confidential information, the emphasis on statistical secrecy, the importance of their work, and the possible consequences of an unintentional error in the macroeconomic figures. --- ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - The Bank undertook a project to update the base period for its national accounts and to implement the 1993 SNA in stages. - The concepts, definitions and classifications used to compile the new series are broadly consistent with the guidelines of the 1993 SNA, with exceptions due more to lack of data than to conceptual considerations. - Deviations from the above concepts and definitions are kept under review (see also Section 5.2.1). ### 2.2 Scope - The 1993 SNA tables and accounts that the ISWGNA determined as minimum requirements for its implementation, as listed below, are compiled on a regular basis: - annual value added and GDP at current and constant prices by activity; - annual expenditures of GDP at current and constant prices; - annual value added components at current prices by activity; - sequence of accounts for the total economy (up to financial accounts) with an annual frequency; - annual rest of the world accounts (until net lending). - Annual supply and use tables are also compiled. - Quarterly output estimates are being prepared, but they are at the review stage. - Quarterly GDP is being estimated, but still not disseminated, for both the production and expenditure approaches, although the first of these is more advanced. - The recommendations in the IMF's Manual of Quarterly National Accounts are used as the frame of reference. - Delimitation of constituent units follows the 1993 SNA. Included in the production boundary: own-account production of all goods for own final consumption, output of goods for own-account fixed capital formation; Nicaragua's embassies abroad and the free zone are included as part of the economy; workers who work part of the year in another country are included as members of resident households (their incomes cannot be measured for practical reasons). - Deviations from the 1993 SNA guidelines: excluded are production of entertainment, literary, or artistic originals; production of computer software; illegal output sold to willing buyers. - Assets boundary broadly in accordance with the 1993 SNA. Included assets: - Among tangible assets: defense related assets that could be used for civilian purposes and agricultural work-in-progress. - Valuables and historical monuments are excluded. - Among intangible assets: computer systems and programs purchased on the market are partially included; those produced in-house are excluded. - Also excluded: mineral exploration (whether successful or not); entertainment, literary or artistic originals; patented entities; and leases and other transferable contracts. - Deviations from the above scope are kept under review (see also 5.2.1). ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - The 1993 SNA is followed to classify institutional units and transactions. - A national classifier of activities and products, known as CNIC, was prepared. - Classification of activities is consistent with ISIC rev.3; classification of products is consistent with CPC. - A national version of COICOP is used for household consumption; COFOG is used for government activities. - Deviations from the above classifications/sectorizations are kept under review (see also 5.2.1). - The Nicaraguan national accounts also make use of the Central American Customs System (SAC) and the Classification by Economic Use and Destination (CUODE) for international transactions. ### 2.4 Basis for recording - Valuation rules are in accordance with the 1993 SNA. - Market output is valued preferably at basic prices; output for own use is valued at equivalent market prices. - If not deductible, sales and excise taxes are included in the valuation of intermediate consumption. Value added tax, excluding the deductible part, is included in the valuation of intermediate consumption; the deductible part is excluded from valuation of final uses. - Corrections are made when transfer prices are detected (example: sugarcane industry). Where vertical integration exists, sugarcane transferred to the refinery is valued at the price paid to independent producers (market price). - Exports are valued FOB and imports CIF in the accounts for goods and services, but total imports are valued at FOB prices. - Exports and imports are valued in córdobas using the daily exchange rate according to the date of the policy or the transaction. - Transactions in foreign currency are converted using the mid-point exchange rate prevailing in the market at the moment they take place. - Deviations from the above valuation are kept under review (see 5.2.1). - Recording is done on an accrual basis, except for government output, which is generally recorded on a cash basis. - Deviations from the above accrual accounting are kept under review (see 5.2.1). - Transactions between establishments within the same enterprise are recorded on a gross basis. - Aggregates such as domestic product, capital formation, disposable income and savings are recorded only in gross terms, because fixed capital consumption is not estimated. --- ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### 3.1 Source data: collection and timeliness - The data collection programs employed to compile the national accounts statistics are generally adequate. - The CBN has created a National Statistics Executive Coordination Office, which conducts a broad series of surveys for producing the basic statistics required to generate the national accounts, economic indicators, and other Bank products. - The Executive Coordination Office surveys establishments on a monthly, quarterly and annual basis, including manufacturing, construction, trade and others, with varying periodicity. - Output and costs of selected agricultural products are obtained from surveys conducted jointly with MAGFOR. - A Business Directory provides the sample frame for surveys; it is updated every five or six years. - In periods between censuses, information comes from administrative records of institutions that authorize opening of new establishments (municipal governments and revenue/income administration offices). - A census will be conducted in 2006 to update the Directory. - Sampling techniques are adequate: establishments stratified by industry to the 4-digit ISIC level, and by size; sample selections are assessed regularly; variance of important variables is examined and sample sizes recalculated to meet required confidence and margins of error. - Population benchmarks and weights are reviewed periodically: principally gross value of output and personnel employed. - Survey questionnaires are reviewed with users and field tested; enumerators and interview methods are supervised. - Data collected are sufficiently detailed to estimate gross value of output, intermediate consumption, fixed capital formation, and changes in inventories. - Household surveys: - Survey of household incomes and expenditures is performed roughly every five years. The last was done in 1999, and the next is scheduled for 2006. The survey covers 17 departmental capitals. It is conducted by the CBN. - Results from the household living standards survey are available for the years 1993, 1998, and 2001, and the next survey will be conducted in 2005. The survey is nationally representative and is conducted by the INEC. - There is an employment survey covering urban and rural households. The INEC conducts this survey jointly with CBN and the Labor Ministry (MITRAB). - The CBN investigates the informal sector via a survey of microenterprises with one to three employees; given the high cost it is scheduled every three years. - Recommendation in text: it would be useful to investigate informal activities, number of informal workers and their incomes through the living standards survey as well. - Government finance statistics are available to estimate output, intermediate consumption, and government fixed capital formation. - Final consumption expenditure of general government is estimated via production costs, without subtracting the value of services sold. - Data are derived from budget expenditure reports and financial statements for each year. - Capital projects are purged of components that must be recorded as current expenditure (example: training expenses). - The data are recorded on a cash basis, but they are not adjusted to move to an accrual basis. - Price indices constructed include consumer prices, agricultural prices, industrial prices, construction material prices, and others; price statistics are generally consistent with variables being deflated. - Foreign trade volume variables are estimated with unit values instead of prices, including highly heterogeneous tariff lines such as machinery and equipment. - Recommendation in text: construct weighted price indices using producer price indices for headings from main source countries, because most products are imported from just a few countries. - The tables A to D list the main sources of data used for estimating GDP from the production and the expenditure approaches. ### 3.1.2 Source data consistency with definitions and timing - Source data are broadly consistent with definitions, scope, and classifications of the national accounts statistics. - Most source data are consistent with time of recording, reference periods, and valuation. - Although roughly 80 percent of businesses, and particularly the largest ones, observe a fiscal year that runs from July 1 to June 30 when they close their books, the business establishment surveys investigate transactions on a calendar year basis. - General government transactions are recorded on a cash rather than on an accrual basis. ### 3.1.3 Timeliness - Data collection and processing timetables are adequate to meet timeliness and periodicity for disseminating the national accounts statistics. - Because businesses close their books at the end of the fiscal year in June, with three months’ grace, information from one year is available in many cases only until September of the following year. - For the need to complete and disseminate the new series of national accounts for 1994-2000 (done in 2003), preliminary estimates were published for the years 2001 to 2003, based primarily on short-term monthly indicators, the most important being the IMAE (Monthly Index of Economic Activity). - This resulted in excessive use of coefficients and ratios more than five years old. - Preliminary statistics have been published since 2000. - This situation will be partially resolved when survey data to 2002 are incorporated into the CBN annual report in March 2005. Data in the Annual Report are final. ### 3.2 Assessment of source data - To keep sampling errors acceptable, the CBN ensures adequate sample size, probabilistic selection, and correct interviewing aligned with the sample frame. - Nonsampling errors: field data collection is reviewed as work proceeds; final results are assessed. - Outliers and atypical differences are examined; extreme values are confirmed with respondents and records maintained on the confirmation; units providing atypical data are visited a second time. - Before calculating the sample, confirmed extreme values (maximum and minimum) are analyzed to ensure adequate sample size. - Temporal consistency and consistency with other related source data are analyzed to correct for underreporting or misreporting. - All secondary information sources are reviewed and evaluated each year, including government finance statistics, merchandise trade statistics, volume and price statistics, and other secondary sources used to compile national accounts statistics. - The tables provided indicate the main sources of data used to generate GDP estimates from the production and expenditure approaches, at current and constant prices. - - 19 - National Accounts *Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/_cr05426.pdf* ### 3.3 Statistical techniques ### 3.3 Statistical techniques ### Main data sources and Supply and Use Table (SUT) - Production and primary income generation accounts compiled for 84 economic activities, specifying principal and secondary production. - Supply and use analyses performed for 150 product groups; SUT aggregated into 37 product groups for publication and reconciliation with the 84 output accounts. - Price indices used for deflation/retrapolation: producer, final consumer, export, import prices; volume indices used to deflate nominal series to constant values. - Initial SUT versions usually contain discrepancies that are eliminated primarily in the intermediate use quadrant; major discrepancies are identified and resolved before proportionate distribution of residuals. - Residual discrepancies are distributed proportionately using a modified RAS method. ### Balancing and assignment procedures - Figures are assigned to fixed boxes where the destination of output for a product is known with certainty (examples: crude oil → oil refining; unhusked rice → white rice; sugarcane → sugar refining). - Total value of intermediate consumption for certain activities is taken from administrative records and not adjusted during SUT balancing (examples: electricity, water, financial intermediation, public administration). - Major discrepancies trigger a review of balance structure to detect inconsistencies, especially for homogeneous products. ### Data compilation, editing, and imputation practices - Data compilation procedures seek to minimize processing errors (coding, editing, tabulation). - Adjustments to unit records made only when clearly warranted; historic information compared with secondary or indirect data. - Imputation for nonresponse based, where possible, on establishments from the same ISIC group. - For major businesses, respondents are asked to provide at least certain relevant variables when possible. - For missing observations in statistical collections, CBN uses trends and historic data or characterizes nonresponding units and examines subsamples with similar characteristics. - In ISIC activities with high nonresponse, the field sample is normally increased by an additional percentage beyond that statistically required for a given sample error. - Adjustments for undercoverage follow appropriate guidelines; example: cattle industry — annual survey covers all industrial slaughterhouses but not municipal slaughtering in rural areas, so an output adjustment is made based on municipal slaughtering statistics from MAGFOR. - Grossing-up factors are derived based on sample design. ### Production approach: sources, disaggregation, and deflation - Output accounts constructed for 84 economic activities from survey data, administrative records, and financial statements. - Supply and use balances by product produced for 150 product groups at the most detailed level, aggregated to 37 product groups in the SUT. - Annual surveys provide detailed output and intermediate consumption information; however, new series primarily rely on short-term volume and price indices to generate current price estimates by extrapolation. - Data from the 2001 and 2002 surveys are incorporated into national accounts data to be published as preliminary estimates in March 2005. - Estimation of volume of taxes on products: current values deflated by price indices for traded products — implicit volume index approximates volume of taxed products but changes when tax rates or the set of tax-exempt products change. - Representative methodological entries from Table A (exact phrasing preserved for methods): - Agriculture: Double extrapolation: GVO and IC at constant prices are estimated by extrapolating the respective GVO and IC for the previous year from the specific volume indices. - Livestock: Double extrapolation: GVO and IC at constant prices are estimated by extrapolating the respective GVO and IC for the previous year from the specific volume indices. CBN model for estimating herd growth and milk output. Municipal and industrial slaughterhouse statistics, MAGFOR. Livestock cost survey, 1997. - Manufacturing: GVO and IC at constant prices are estimated separately. GVO is deflated and IC is extrapolated. Sources include Annual Manufacturing survey (since 1992), Quarterly survey of economic sectors, Monthly Manufacturing survey, Free Zones Corporation, Urban economic Census 1996, municipal and industrial slaughterhouse statistics, MAGFOR, Monthly economic indicators, CBN. - Construction: Double extrapolation: GVO and IC at constant prices are estimated by extrapolating the respective GVO and IC for the previous year from the specific volume indices. Sources include Quarterly survey of private construction and public construction data from Presidential Coordination and Strategy Secretariat, City of Managua, and Nicaraguan Social Security Institute, and Ministry of Finance and Public Credit. - Electricity and water: For electricity, extrapolation from the index of physical volume of generation. For water, deflated by the CPI for water service. Source: producers' financial statements. - Transport and communications: GVO is extrapolated from the volume index for transport and telecommunications and IC is deflated by the consumer price index for transport and telecommunications. Sources include MTI, taxi cooperative, annual business survey 1997, balance sheets of telecommunication enterprises. - Wholesale and retail trade: Double extrapolation using specific volume indices. Source: Annual business survey. - Financial institutions: GVO and IC at constant prices are estimated separately. GVO is deflated and IC is extrapolated. Source: financial statements of financial institutions. - Real estate and rental services: Residential rents extrapolated from volume index from new residential construction; nonresidential rents extrapolated with volume index for nonresidential repairs (construction). Sources include EMNV 1993 and 1998, Seventh Population Census and Third Housing Census 1995, EIGH 1999, quarterly survey of private construction since 1998. - Community, social and personal services: GVO and IC at constant prices are estimated separately. GVO is deflated and IC is extrapolated. Sources include Annual services survey, financial statements for NPISH (national lottery and Ministry of the Interior), EMNV 1993 and 1998 and EIGH 1999. ### Expenditure approach: compilation and deflation - Expenditure components derived independently with exceptions; household consumption extrapolated from 1999 Survey of Household Incomes and Expenditures (EIGH) vector and reconciled when household surveys available. - Change in inventories: estimates available for most from 2001; part of inventories estimated as a residual. - Gross fixed capital formation compiled by type of assets but not by activity; changes in inventories compiled mostly by activity and type since 2001 annual surveys. - Government consumption expenditure estimate obtained without excluding incidental sales from cost-measured output (noted as an exception/issue). - Reference period for the accounts is 1994; a process launched to update the reference period to 2005 (example: business survey used to obtain more up-to-date distribution margins). - Representative methodological entries from Table B (exact phrasing preserved for methods): - Household consumption: Deflated by the CPI per product. Sources: EIGH 1999 (CBN/INEC) covering 17 departmental capitals; EMNV 1998 (INEC) for remaining urban and rural households, 2001. - Government consumption: IC deflated with price indices and extrapolated with volume indices for use of value-added. Sources: national budget and related budget documentation and reports. - Nonprofit institutions serving households: Extrapolated by index of volume for all institutions. Sources: Ministry of the Interior registry and financial statements. - Gross fixed capital formation — Construction: Double extrapolation for private construction; current figures deflated by a moving-base price index; constant values by a chaining procedure. Sources: quarterly survey of private construction and public construction data from multiple institutions. - Machinery and equipment: Deflated by indices of unit value for imports from DGSA database and by a moving-base machinery and equipment price index constructed from producer price indices for the United States and the capital goods export price index for Japan. - Other investments: Deflated by the construction prices index. Sources include MAGFOR, customs records, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. - Change in inventories: For a portion of industrial products, inventories obtained from surveys; remainder from SUT adjustments. Method: difference between aggregate supply at constant prices and other elements of aggregate demand at constant prices. - Exports and imports of goods and services: Constant values calculated by volume, value and unit value of a basket of goods for which unit value indices are calculated by CNIC. Sources include DGSA database, ADPESCA, PROBANICSA, ENTRESA, INE, Hydrocarbons Directorate. ### Quarterly estimates, chaining, seasonal adjustment, and matrix methods - Quarterly GDP series derived from seasonally unadjusted source data; gross data series have not yet been seasonally adjusted and are being revised. - Denton technique used to combine annual with quarterly estimates; Excel used to work out the matrix for Denton due to quantity of definitive annual data; consideration being given to using the Denton module in STATA with inclusion of new annual data. - Quarterly estimates by activity use various volume indices and extrapolation methods; representative entries preserved from Table C and Table D: - Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, Fishing, Mining: Double extrapolation using GVO and IC volume indices; sources include MAGFOR surveys, CBN Revenue and Deflators Department, ADGEO-MIFIC, ADPESCA-MIFIC. - Manufacturing, Wholesale and retail trade, Financial intermediation, Community/social/personal services: quarterly and monthly surveys and IMAE volume indices used; estimates of GVO and IC at constant prices obtained by extrapolating these variables. - Private construction: Chain indices obtained from current and moving-base figures; volume indicator: cubic meters. - Public construction: current figures deflated by a moving-base price index; chain indices from current and moving-base figures. - Water and electricity: extrapolated using the physical volume index; producer-supplied information on sales, prices and quantities. - Transport and communications: use IMAE volume index for quarterly estimates and extrapolate GVO and IC by transport and telecommunications volume index. - Private consumption (quarterly): Reflated by the CPI per product using a constructed volume index based on electricity, water, transport and communications, financial services, marketed health and education services, community services. - Exports and imports (quarterly): Constant export values calculated from volume, value and unit value of a basket of goods for which unit value indices are calculated by CNIC; DGSA and ADPESCA and PROBANICSA are key sources; daily exchange rate from CBN used. *Source: _cr05426 - 3.3 Statistical techniques, National Accounts (excerpt).* ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs ### Validation of intermediate results - Intermediate results and statistical outputs are regularly assessed and validated. - Intermediate results are validated against other information where applicable: - Annual survey of the timber sector compared with National Forestry Institute. - Annual survey of the Esso refinery compared with crude oil imports and derivatives from the Customs Directorate. - Annual survey of the meat industry reconciled with data from the Agriculture and Forestry Ministry. ### Assessment and investigation of statistical discrepancies in intermediate data - A systematic procedure exists to routinely assess potential discrepancies in survey-generated data and to eliminate them. - Three different groups undertake critical review and reconciliation at various points in the process, comparing: - Data with those from other firms in the same industry. - Data with those provided by each firm in previous years. - When consistency problems (discrepancies) are identified, the source is queried directly and asked to correct them. ### Investigation of statistical discrepancies and other indicators of problems in outputs - The SUT (supply and use table) framework is used to investigate discrepancies and make statistical outputs consistent; discrepancies between supply and use are eliminated during the consistency analysis process. - Whenever another institution publishes unofficial statistical information on a topic, it is validated against the official data and attempts are made to explain any differences. *Key items from assessment and validation:* - The SUT is central to reconciling supply and use discrepancies. - Direct querying of sources is the standard remedy for identified survey inconsistencies. --- ### 3.5 Revision studies ### Routine studies and internal use of revisions - Revisions are tracked and mined for information as a gauge of reliability. - After adoption of the new base year 1994, a series for 1994–2000 was published, with preliminary data for 2000. Data covering 2001–2003 have been published. - Given the short time since publication of the new series, no revision studies have been undertaken. - No documentation has been prepared to analyze causes of variations in the data published in March when revised data are released in July. This lack of documentation will make proper revision studies difficult in the future. ### Implications and potential improvements - Revision studies could identify systematic biases between preliminary and revised estimates. - If systematic biases exist, adjustments could be made in first and preliminary estimates to reduce later revisions. --- ### 4 Serviceability ### 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - Periodicity: - GDP estimates are disseminated annually, consistent with the IMF’s General Data Dissemination Standard (GDDS). - Timeliness: - The GDP estimates are disseminated seven months after the end of reference year, which is consistent with the GDDS. ### 4.2 Consistency - Internal consistency: - A set of consistent GDP estimates by activity and expenditure components is derived from the supply and use framework at current prices for the previous year, and at constant prices for the base year 1994. - Using SUT tables and required adjustments ensures consistency at current and constant prices for GDP measured by the production and the expenditure approaches. - Growth rates from GDP by activity and GDP by expenditure categories are identical. - Aggregate supply of goods and services coincides with aggregate use because they are not derived independently. - GDP estimates at current prices, volume measures, and (implicit) deflators are consistent within the “value = volume × price” framework. - Quarterly GDP estimates are based on the same conceptual framework as the annual accounts; a Denton-type method will be used to combine annual and quarterly data into a single, consistent series. - Consistency over time: - No attempt has been made to reconstruct a longer time series because GDP for the new series is roughly 70 percent greater than that in the previous series for the base year 1994, and better coverage has variable effects on components. - Department priorities: improving estimates using annual economic surveys, changing the base year to 2005, and implementing institutional sector accounts in stages. - Consistency with other frameworks: - National accounts can be reconciled with government finance statistics, balance of payments, and other frameworks. - Consistency with balance of payments is supported by shared data sources and joint analysis when adjustments are needed. - National accounts have been adjusting data for informal trade in tobacco that is not included in balance of payments; these discrepancies are not explained in balance of payments publications. - Gaps in coverage for transactions with the rest of the world affect both frameworks (e.g., income earned by Nicaraguan residents who work part of the year abroad is not included). - Differences with government finance statistics stem from less coverage of public institutions and timing problems in information provided for fiscal programming. ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - Revision schedule: - Programmed revision cycle: - Each March: release of first set of accounts called "estimates." - Mid-year (July): estimates revised with additional data (primarily on agriculture and government) and released as "preliminary" figures. - Subsequent revision with annual survey data leads to publication of "final" figures two years after the close of the reference year. - In the currently published series, revisions apply only to the "estimates" data since final data have been published up to 1999. - Revised estimates to be published in March 2005 will be based on annual surveys for 2001 and 2002; these will still be "preliminary," as will those for 2003, and data for 2004 will be "estimates." - Timing issues: - Annual survey data are obtained very late because many firms close books on a fiscal year basis (Nicaragua fiscal year runs from July of one year to June of the next). - Roughly 80 percent of businesses, particularly larger ones, keep books on a fiscal year basis. - Documentation and transparency: - No documentation has been prepared on revisions to explain reasons underlying revisions or to support future studies of revisions. - Preliminary and/or revised data identification: - At dissemination, users are informed whether data are preliminary; in tables, indicated by the letter “p” in a footnote or heading. - Studies and analyses of revisions are not made public: - Data published in March are revised and released in July without any analysis of differences or reasons underlying those differences. - Final revisions have not yet been published. --- ### 5 Accessibility ### 5.1 Data accessibility - Presentation and formats: - National accounts data are published in the CBN’s Annual Report in a clear manner; charts and tables accompany data to facilitate analysis. - Level of aggregation published in the Annual Report is high. - The new series with base year 1994 contains very detailed national accounts data; released in printed form and available on the website. - Recent data and longer time series can be consulted free of charge on the website and in printed publications at the Bank's library. - Dissemination media and schedule: - Estimated data published in the Bank's Annual Report in March each year; preliminary data contained in "Economic Indicators." - Both documents are posted on the Bank's website. - A 1994-2000 series was included in the System of National Accounts for Nicaragua with base year 1994, produced in printed form and available at the CBN website. - Release calendar: - The public is not informed in advance of release dates, although there is an internal calendar. - Simultaneous availability: - Statistics made available to all interested users simultaneously via the Internet. - Users outside the CBN have no access to data until released to the President of Nicaragua by the President of the Bank in his annual report, or via the Internet. - Non-routinely disseminated statistics: - Other general statistics are made available upon request, but this possibility has not been publicly announced. ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - Documentation: - "National Accounts System of Nicaragua, Base Year 1994" published in May 2003 describes concepts, definitions, classifications, data sources, and statistical techniques. - Metadata have been prepared for inclusion on the IMF website upon Nicaragua's joining the GDDS. - No comprehensive document on sources and methods has been prepared for departmental internal purposes or for consultation by Bank staff and specialized users. - Methodologies disclosed cover some requirements, but omitted items could interest specialized users. - Levels of detail: - Methodologies disclosed in publications and on the Internet cover both general and relatively specialized topics, meeting needs of most of the public. ### 5.3 Assistance to users - Contact points: - A contact point for each area is included in "Economic Indicators Methodological Notes 2004" and is available at the Bank's website. - Catalogs and charges: - A list of publications is available on the website and in the Bank's library. - There is no charge for these publications. --- *Assessment excerpt and results presented in Table 1: Nicaragua: Data Quality Assessment Framework (July 2003) — Compiling Agency: Central Bank of Nicaragua.* ### 0.1 Legal and institutional environment ### _cr05426 - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment ### Legal mandate and institutional roles - The monthly consumer price index (CPI) is compiled by the Central Bank of Nicaragua (CBN) since 2003. The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (NISC) compiled the CPI up to 2002; the function was transferred to the CBN due to NISC’s budget constraints. - Operational responsibility for collecting, compiling, and analyzing the CPI lies with the Executive Coordination of National Surveys (ECNS) in the Economic Studies Management (ESM) of the CBN. - Analysis of results, methodological improvements, and dissemination lies with the Department of Income and Deflators (DID) of the ESM. - No other institution compiles the CPI in Nicaragua. - Legal framework notes: - The CBN Organic Law (No. 317, 03/30/01) does not clearly assign responsibility for compiling and disseminating the CPI to the CBN; Article 60 gives the right to the CBN to collect statistical data for statistical purposes and macroeconomic analysis. - Articles 26 (7) of the CBN Law and 138 (28) of the Political Constitution of Nicaragua (01/18/00) require the CBN President to submit an annual report to the Board and the National Assembly. - Article 31 (3) of the CBN Law requires an Annual Report to the President of the Republic during the first three months of each year, including a general survey of economic and financial development. - Article 7 of the NISC Law (Decree No. 888, 10/30/81) establishes centralization of governmental statistical activities; a prospective new NISC law includes compilation of the CPI among its functions. - Institutional observation and policy implications: - The legal framework of the CBN and the NISC is being updated to provide a clear mandate to compile and disseminate statistics. - Some functions specified for the NISC are ambitious and go beyond its current financial capacity, such as the compilation of the CPI. - The CBN might have a conflict of interest if it continues compiling the CPI while implementing a policy of inflation targeting. - It would be necessary to provide the NISC with sufficient resources to ensure that the CPI is compiled with adequate quality and timeliness. ### Data sharing and coordination among data-producing agencies - The CBN is self-sufficient in CPI production: all price and source data for weights are collected and tabulated within the CBN. - The sampling frame for the 1998-1999 National Survey of Household Income and Expenditure (NSHIE) (1995 Population Census and cartographic maps of Nicaragua) was provided by the NISC to the CBN. - National Statistical System (NSS) composition and coordination mechanisms: - NSS includes the NISC (as coordinator), all ministries, decentralized public entities, local governments, public enterprises, and other data producing agencies. - Article 3 of the NISC Law states the NSS shall avoid duplicating efforts and ensure comparability of statistical information. - Article 18 envisages creation of the Coordination Committee of the NSS and sector committees; several sector committees are functioning (external trade, free zones, agriculture, employment, salary statistics). - The National Strategy of Statistical Development (NSSD) envisages a National Committee including representatives of the NSS, civil society, NGOs, universities, producers’ committees, and international organizations. - Coordination challenges and data sharing practices: - Due to decentralization of the statistical function among NSS entities, coordination has not been completely effective. - There are no formal data sharing agreements among data producing agencies; data sharing is based on informal agreements and good relations. - Efforts to strengthen technical cooperation occur within the revision of the NISC Law, the Coordination Committee of the NSS, the National Committee of the NSSD, and sector committees. - The National Strategy for Statistical Development (ENDE) is in the works; it includes most members of SEN and civil society, aiming to strengthen and modernize all statistical areas in Nicaragua. ### Confidentiality and access to individual reporters’ data - Legal and administrative confidentiality provisions at the CBN: - Article 61 of the CBN Law: directors, officers, and employees are obligated to safeguard confidentiality; violations sanctioned per by-laws and applicable criminal law. - Article 10 of the CBN Personnel Internal Regulations: contract termination includes “Proved released of information and reserved or confidential documents…”; the President of the CBN can fire non-complying personnel. - Article 56 of the CBN by-law: “All digital information supplied by the Bank to the employee for performing his/her duties is confidential and shall not be revealed even after the work relation has concluded.” - Article 77: obligation “To keep secrecy/discretion on the information, documents, and operations on which they have knowledge of by virtue of their positions.” - Infractions and sanctions are defined in Article 61 of the CBN Law and Article 78 of the CBN by-law. - Practices and safeguards: - NSHIE 1998–1999 questionnaire included: “According to the Law of Statistics, Decree 102, Article 91 the data provided are strictly confidential and will be only used for statistical purposes.” - Access to confidential data in the CBN is restricted to employees who require it for their duties. - The CBN has refused requests for unit records on several retail enterprises in accordance with the law. - When unit records are made available for research, records are anonymized; special aggregation rules prevent residual disclosure. - ECNS procedures ensure dissemination only at aggregated levels; questionnaires are archived and destroyed after two years. - Respondents are informed about confidentiality in advance; price data are collected by visits to retailers and price surveys include CBN logo and identification of collector and supervisor. - Information security measures: - Article 66 of the CBN by-law: “All resources of the internal net have to be protected by passwords or established access lists.” - CBN intranet access requires authorized user name and password; different user profiles established through Windows 2003. - External firewall, antispam module, and antivirus protect intranet and databases. - CPI databases are administered by the ECNS. ### Statistical reporting obligations and response encouragement - Legal obligations and penalties: - Article 60: central government offices, municipal governments, governmental credit institutions, banks, and any person or enterprise with residence or domicile in Nicaraguan territory are obligated to submit requested reports to the CBN for statistical purposes and macroeconomic analysis. - Penalty for noncompliance or false/incomplete information: fine of one thousand to ten thousand córdobas for each occurrence ($60.61–$606.10 as of January 2005). - Observations: these penalties are low, particularly for large and medium enterprises, and there is no mechanism to preserve their value in real terms. - Enforcement and reporting behavior: - Enabling legal provisions for requesting information have been rarely invoked; penalties for noncompliance have not been levied. - CBN personnel indicate there are not clear regulations to apply penalties and authorities prefer voluntary reporting by explaining intended use, confidentiality, and importance. - Surveys and censuses are announced through radio, television, and newspapers with explanations of purpose; CBN assists respondents via regular visits and provides a point of contact. - Response rates and handling nonresponse: - Nonresponse to NSHIE 1998–1999: 12 percent in Managua and 18 percent in the rest of the country; concentrated in high-income stratum in Managua and spread across strata elsewhere. - Nonresponse to price surveys: around 1 percent. - Nonresponding retailers are visited by supervisors or coordinators to encourage compliance; refusals are substituted by other retailers selling the same items in the same market place. - Statistical information is provided to respondents when requested; the CBN annual report is given free of charge in some cases. - Instruments for price and weights collection are designed to reduce respondent burden. ### Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing (0.2.1) - Staffing levels and composition: - Total number of staff assigned to the CPI: 34. - Within DID: 2 permanent staff in Income and Price Deflators Department (CPI): Department Unit 2 permanent, 0 contractual (total 2); Chief 1 permanent; Professional 1 permanent. - ECNS (CPI) staff mix: CPI Unit 1 permanent, 31 contractual, total 32. - Assistant: 0 permanent, 1 contractual, total 1. - Programming developer: 0 permanent, 1 contractual, total 1. - Processors: 0 permanent, 3 contractual, total 3. - Analysts: 1 permanent, 3 contractual, total 4. - Critics: 0 permanent, 2 contractual, total 2. - Field chief: 0 permanent, 1 contractual, total 1. - Supervisors: 0 permanent, 4 contractual, total 4. - Field agents: 0 permanent, 15 contractual, total 15. - Aggregate table: Total permanent 3; contractual 31; total staff 34. - At DID there is only 1 professional for analyzing and improving CPI methodology under the coordination of the Department Chief. - ECNS CPI unit staffing: 15 field agents, 4 supervisors, 1 field chief, 4 analysts, 2 reviewers, 3 data processors, 1 programming developer, 1 coordinator assigned to price collection, compilation, and analysis. - Price collection is made by 5 price collectors in Managua and 8 in the other 7 regions. - Average seniority of staff in the CPI: approximately eight years. - Adequacy and risks: - Current resources are broadly adequate for the current CPI covering 322 varieties and 26,000 price quotations. - There will be a shortage of resources (both human and financial) for conducting the 2006 NHSIE and compiling and disseminating a CPI with a new reference base. - More than ninety percent of the staff working on the CPI is contractual personnel, a potential risk for quality and timeliness. - The ECNS attempts to retain trained contractual personnel by renewing contracts annually as budget permits. - Most data collectors are professionals (economists, administrators, public accountants), ensuring validation and cross-checking before compilation. - Training and compensation: - CPI staff receive on-the-job training and formal courses/seminars, including some abroad (ECLAC, CAMC, Cesd-Madrid); training opportunities are not offered regularly. - Salaries at the CBN are competitive: monthly salaries are around $200 for data processors, $300 for analysts, and $450 for professionals. - Computing and office resources: - DID: 2 computers (mainly Pentium 4), 1 server, and 2 printers; only 1 computer has Internet access; only supervisors have their own CBN e-mail account. - ECNS: 12 computers, 1 printer, and 2 servers assigned to CPI data processing and compilation; only 2 computers are Pentium 4. - Most computers at ECNS have low capacity to handle large databases; number of printers (1) and their speed is insufficient. - CBN is in the process of leasing modern computing resources; plans to incorporate more equipment to the ECNS unit. - CPI is calculated using applications developed in Visual Basic 6.0; a SQL Server database stores CPI data; a daily backup of CPI data is made. - Software available: Office 2000 (Excel, Word, Power Point), E-Views, ARIMA, Tramo Seats, Crystal Reports, SPSS; software is not regularly updated due to budget constraints. - CBN building: adequate working facilities (cooling, space, restrooms, power); office furniture and equipment adequate. - Transportation: 4 vehicles for CPI data collection; vehicles are shared with other work programs but priority is given to CPI compilation. - Financing: - 1998–1999 NSHIE was jointly carried out by the CBN and the NSHIE with funding from the CBN and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). - Financial resources for compiling the CPI are broadly adequate. - Funding for CPI compilation is provided under the budgetary process of the CBN. - Budget for the CPI program in 2005: 2.98 million córdobas ($180,606 as of January 2005). - Requests for funding for special projects (2006 NSHIE, changing reference base, expanding coverage, methodological studies) are included in normal budgetary process. ### Measures to ensure efficient use of resources (0.2.2) - Planning and performance management: - CBN has a four-year (2004–2007) strategic plan to increase quality and timeliness of statistical series and improve resource allocation; broken down into annual work plans. - Plans are administered by each unit in coordination with the Sub-Management of Organization and Planning (SOP). - SOP meets with each unit quarterly to review progress with the four-year and yearly plans; allocation of financial and human resources discussed. - Each unit formally reviews progress monthly according to work plans. - Performance of CBN personnel is annually evaluated through semiannual advances; follow-up and tests are used for promotions. - Assignation of responsibilities between DID and ECNS is clear; supervisors meet regularly to measure progress and analyze CPI results. - Budget is quarterly reviewed to ensure efficient use of scarce resources. - Productivity, processes, and technological improvements: - Daily productivity rates are calculated for data collection, processing, and analysis. - Error correction: clarifications sought with respondents; data subjected to consistency checks. - Applications: efficient Visual Basic 6.0 application for CPI; SQL Server application improves data validation and keeps digital records of corrections and revisions. - CBN actively adopts new computing technology and Internet for data processing and dissemination; CBN website is well designed. - ISM innovations and plans: - Introduce Data Transformation Services to reduce time and cost of collection, coding, editing, validation, and tabulation. - Install software for survey designing and implement data collection through Palm Pilots to avoid data transcription; mobile units connected to servers for downloading source data. - Train staff to use On Line Analytical Processes (OLAP) for data analysis, indicator systems, and dynamic tables. - Decentralize data dissemination so producing units can post statistical products automatically on the CBN website. - Use free software such as Linux in non-critical areas to reduce costs. - External assistance: - DID and ECNS received technical assistance from independent consultants for the 1998-1999 NSHIE, sampling techniques, compiling CPI 1999=100, and systematizing CPI compilation process. *Source: _cr05426 - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment* ### 0.3 Relevance ### 0.3 Relevance ### 0.3.1 The relevance and practical utility of existing statistics in meeting users’ needs are monitored - CBN library and website provide timely information on CBN’s statistical products. - The Department of Public Service of the Library monitors and keeps records on users’ requests and non-satisfied needs. - CBN does not have regular meetings with entities participating in the NSS to discuss statistical development and establish new data requirements. - The National Committee of the NSSD and the Coordination Committee of the NSS include key public and private users. - CBN website provides two e-mail addresses for users: bcn@bcn.gob.ni and webmaster@bcn.gon.ni. - English version of the website message: “We welcome all comments and suggestions for other information that may be of use to researchers, investors, financial entities, and the general public.” - When a new census or survey is conducted, a users’ committee is created to include relevant data requests in questionnaires before implementation. - The NISC conducted a survey on statistics demand in 2003. - CBN staff participate in meetings and seminars on price statistics as budgetary constraints permit. ### 0.4 Other quality management #### 0.4.1 Processes are in place to focus on quality - CBN strategic plan administered under the MOP has essential characteristics of a total quality management program, providing a framework for continuous structured review of allocation of resources and elements of data quality: accuracy, methodological soundness, reliability, serviceability, and accessibility. - One goal of the strategic plan is to improve the quality and timeliness of statistics. - The President and managers of the CBN meet regularly with the media to inform economic developments and report on projects for improving statistical quality. - Price collectors and analysts receive annual training on errors to be avoided (respondent errors, errors when completing questionnaires, transcription errors, analysis errors). These training courses have been conducted since 2002. #### 0.4.2 Processes are in place to monitor the quality of the statistical program - Responses to surveys were assessed for the NSHIE, but response rates to price surveys are not calculated. - Complete monitoring processes are not in place to inform managers on ongoing statistical activity quality (e.g., editing rates, revisions history, timeliness evaluations). - Compilers have access to expert guidance when international organizations donate or lend resources to hire experts or when the CBN contracts experts despite budget constraints. - CBN practices and procedures ensure CPI quality at all production levels: data collection, data processing, index tabulation, dissemination. - Monthly price collection phase reviewed at regional and national levels; problems referred to supervisors. - Data entry and screening handled at the ECNS; computer listings generated for review and validation at each compilation level. - Errors are corrected after consultation with respondents and regional staff when necessary. - Index aggregates reviewed and analyzed by CBN staff at various administrative levels before publication. - CBN instituted monthly visits to oversee price collection in different regions; visits verify abnormalities detected during ECNS and DID reviews. - Defined processes exist to supervise data collection and apply consistency checks; sub-sample questionnaires are verified by supervisors during visits. - Staff keep records of usual errors and improvements to incorporate into new surveys. #### 0.4.3 Processes are in place to deal with quality considerations in planning the statistical program - Four-year strategic planning system demonstrates commitment to quality assurance and analysis of tradeoffs among resource availability, timeliness, and accuracy/reliability. - Ongoing program to identify changes in specifications for CPI market basket items, especially clothing, motor vehicles, and high technology items; new item specifications introduced as needed. - No official mechanisms (such as a users’ survey or official advisory groups) for obtaining systematic feedback from users or guidance on methodological issues; CBN convenes ad hoc groups when changes are being considered for the index. - Ad hoc groups tend to concentrate on methodological soundness rather than user needs. - Users’ needs are monitored through data requests and users’ comments obtained via the CBN website. - Coordination Committee of the NSS and the National Committee of the NSSD expected to play an important role in monitoring user needs. ### 1. Assurances of integrity #### 1.1 Professionalism - 1.1.1 Statistics are produced on an impartial basis - In practice, the CPI is produced and disseminated without outside influence. - CBN regulations do not specifically cover attempts at interference by parties outside the CBN. - CBN Board of Directors includes the minister of the MFPC, posing a potential conflict of interest. - Article 15 (excerpt) defines Board composition including: the President of the Bank, the Minister of Finance and Public Credit, and four members named by the President of the Republic in consultation with the private sector and ratified by the National Assembly; one member must belong to the party or alliance that placed second in the most recent election. - Article 62 (excerpt) states appointment procedures for the four Board members: "1. The appointment of the member of the Board representing the party in second place will be done so that the end of his term coincides with the end of the current presidential term of office. 2. Appointments of the remaining three members will be made in such a way that the end of the term coincides with the halfway of the current presidential term...." - These regulations aim to avoid political influence since Board decisions are made by consensus of the majority. - Article 16 requires Board Members to be “... of recognized moral integrity, economically solvent, and professionally qualified ...”. - Article 25 requires the president of the CBN to “... be of recognized moral integrity and professional competence ...”. - Hiring and promotion governed by CBN regulations based on professional merit; Articles 7 (d) and (f) of the CBN by-law list requisites for joining the CBN; Articles 14 to 17 regulate promotions. - Professionalism promoted via staff participation in training, workshops, seminars; staff attending training must present contents to colleagues. - Department of Human Resource Development (DHRD) under Human Resources Sub-Management (HRS) is in charge of personnel training. - Article 77 (k) of the CBN by-law obliges employees: “To attend courses and other training activities convened with the administration, as well as to attend national and international seminars or meetings of interest of the institution.” - CBN employees encouraged to carry out research; methodological studies circulated for internal and, when appropriate, external review; institutional papers for publication must be approved by CBN administration. - 1.1.2 Choices of sources and statistical techniques and dissemination decisions are informed solely by statistical considerations - Selection of source data and statistical techniques for CPI compilation is based solely on statistical considerations. - Sources and methods for compiling the CPI are fully under CBN control and follow international standards. - Appropriate sources and techniques are used with no outside interference; decisions made internally after methodological recommendations by international organizations. - A summary documentation on source data and methodology for compiling the CPI has been prepared and is available to the public. - 1.1.3 The appropriate statistical entity is entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics - CBN responds to erroneous interpretations of the CPI via press releases and other means. - CBN closely monitors press references to the CPI. - Monthly CPI data presented to media at monthly press conferences; comments on CPI trends included in presentations and monthly bulletin distributed to the press. - Bulletins identify main underlying factors behind unusual figures to reduce misinterpretation. - The president and manager of the CBN are entitled to respond to public criticism or misuse; few instances have required response. #### 1.2 Transparency - 1.2.1 Terms and conditions under which statistics are collected, processed, and disseminated are available to the public - Article 131 of the Political Constitution of Nicaragua: “The staff of the four powers of the State, elected directly or indirectly, shall respond on the correct performance of their functions and inform the population on their work and official activities.” - CBN website includes a summary methodology and technical conditions under which the CPI is calculated. - CBN has posted its Law on its website, informing about standards of confidentiality and professionalism of its president and Board. - The CBN By-Law or a summary of staff professionalism-related articles have not been posted on the website. - CBN website (www.bcn.gob.ni) contains a directory of key personnel and two email addresses for requests and suggestions. - CBN publications provide information on the CBN website, PO Box, and fax number of the ESM. - CBN Library has a unit in charge of providing information to the public. - 1.2.2 Internal governmental access to statistics prior to their release is publicly identified - Approval of published index series is indicated as exempt from outside interference. - A number of high-level government officials have embargoed access usually 72 hours before public release. - The list of officials receiving privileged access is not published. - CBN publications are authorized by the CBN Board of Directors, but there are no specific regulations guiding the approval process. - In practice, CPI release and publications are authorized by the manager of Economic Studies. - 1.2.3 Products of statistical agencies/units are clearly identified as such - All CBN publications include the Bank’s logo. - For joint publications, each entity is clearly identified with logos or footnotes on published tables or title pages. - CBN policy is to release CPI publications in a standard format (titles, colors, typography). - 1.2.4 Advance notice is given of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques - Major changes in methodology or data sources are publicized before implementation. - CBN publicized change of CPI base year (1999=100) before publishing the new series in January 2001 via presentations and meetings. - A report with a summary table of main differences between the new CPI and the previous index (1994=100) was published. - NSHIE questionnaires used to collect new market basket weights for the CPI were presented ahead of implementation to a group of researchers and specialized users. #### 1.3 Ethical standards - 1.3.1 Guidelines for staff behavior are in place and well known to staff - A manual of instructions for field agents and supervisors provides guidelines on staff behavior. - CBN staff not authorized to alter or change statistical data received from respondents. - CBN By-Law contains rules of staff conduct in Chapter VIII on Obligations and Prohibitions of the Employee. - Article 61 of the CBN Law and Article 77 of its By-Laws require discretion on affairs reserved by law, regulations or special instructions. - Employee obligations include: "(a) ... to provide their service with efficiency, honesty, dedication, responsibility, loyalty, and constant improvement ... (f) to observe decorous conduct and maintain respect, consideration, and courtesy ..." - Article 77 prohibitions include: "(c) To receive from the public any invitation or gift ... that can be related to expedite paperwork or transactions ... (i) to use, for own benefit or third parties’ benefit, values or goods of the Institution...." - Article 78 presents sanctions for non-compliance: verbal and written reprehension, work suspension without salary, and dismissal. - Each new employee is informed of the CBN Law and regulations and given a personal copy. ### 2. Methodological soundness #### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - 2.1.1 Overall structure follows internationally accepted standards - Concepts and definitions used in the CPI are generally in line with internationally accepted standards as defined by the International Labor Organization, the IMF and others in the Consumer Price Index Manual, 2004. - Prices and weights of the CPI broadly follow national accounts concepts—based on the 1993 SNA/1995 ESA—for all monetary household consumption expenditures. - Level of detail for commodities and services is sufficient for detailed analysis at divisions, groups, classes, and items of the Nicaraguan Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP). #### 2.2 Scope - 2.2.1 Scope broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards - Geographic weights and market basket item weights for the CPI are based on expenditure data from all urban households included in the household sample for the 1998–99 NSHIE. - Household sample is representative of all income levels, types of occupations and household composition. - NSHIE designed to separate consumption and business expenditures for households with unincorporated business activity. - Expenditure data from households involved in farming and fishing residing in urban areas were included for CPI weights. - Consumption of illegal market goods and services was not investigated in the NSHIE and therefore excluded from CPI weights. - Consumption of nonmonetary goods such as own-produced agriculture products and goods provided by employers as income in kind are included, since investigated in the NSHIE. - Value of rent of owner-occupied housing is excluded from CPI weights, although an imputation was made on rentals of owner-occupied dwellings in NSHIE results; this exclusion departs from international standard practices. Materials used in housing repairs are incorporated. - CPI weights only cover expenditures of all urban resident households in the country; rural households were not covered in the NSHIE and thus excluded due to budget constraints. - Up to 2000 the index only covered Managua city. Since then, prices are collected in each major city of the 17 departmental states of Nicaragua. - These cities are grouped into 8 regions; this sample, together with the range of outlets covered in each municipality, is considered representative of the pricing structure throughout the country. *Source: _cr05426 - 0.3 Relevance* ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization ### Classification systems and departures from international standards - All classification and coding for the 1998–99 NSHIE and the current CPI are based on a Nicaraguan version of the COICOP. - Departures from standard COICOP: - Food and non-alcoholic beverages; Alcoholic beverages and Tobacco; Transport; Communication; and Restaurants and Hotels are organized differently. - Alcoholic and non alcoholic beverages are together. - Tobacco is included in miscellaneous goods and services. - Transport and communication are grouped in one division. - Hotels are included in leisure, equipment, and recreation services. - Restaurants are included together with food and non-alcoholic beverages. - Item-level (basic expenditure level) index data are available, allowing users to obtain detailed data and potentially reclassify items. - Expenditure data on goods and services are classified into a seven-digit extended version of the COICOP, which includes items’ varieties. - The Central Product Classification (CPC) was not used to classify the items; nevertheless, the CPI classification is broadly in accordance with the CPC at product level. ### 2.4 Basis for recording ### Valuation of flows and stocks - CPI weights are based on expenditure data from the 1998–99 NSHIE. - Prices used to determine expenditures were market prices (purchaser’s prices) including trade and transportation margins and taxes (value added tax). - Subsidies on products were discounted. - The only subsidy currently applied by the government is the subsidy on urban transport, which is reflected in the market price of transport services in the CPI. - Prices include discounts when applied to all purchasers according to international practices. - CPI prices do not reflect price reductions through price bargaining (prices individually negotiated between sellers and purchasers); bargaining occurs in cantonal and informal markets for some food items and represents less than 10 percent of food items. - The price collected in the Nicaraguan price survey is the first price asked by the retailer. - Field agents purchase a sample (31) of food articles to check product specifications: unit of measurement, presentation, quantity, and weight. - Product specifications for pricing items in the market basket include detailed item characteristics and terms of transactions. ### Recording basis - All prices used for estimating the market basket item weights and for monthly price collection are measured on an accrual basis. - For purchased sample items, the market price is recorded for the period in which the item is purchased. - For other items, the price is recorded in the period during which the item is offered for sale. ### Grossing/netting procedures - For CPI market basket weights, purchases of durable goods (e.g., automobiles) were recorded only as new goods; acquisitions less disposal were not registered, despite the 1998–99 NSHIE permitting separation of new versus used goods. - Sales of used consumer durables are identifiable in the source data. - In 2000 the CBN decided to exclude purchases of vehicles from the CPI market basket owing to the small proportion they represent in total expenditure; this is a departure from international practices. ### 3 Accuracy and reliability ### 3.1 Source data — coverage, frequency, and design - Historical NSHIE rounds: 1953, 1972, 1984-85, and 1998-99. - Authorities plan a NSHIE every five years; the next NSHIE was planned for 2006 and included in the CBN’s budget. - The NISC conducted several surveys of living conditions (under the MECOVI project); typical living-conditions surveys are conducted over a four-month period and may have seasonal biases. - The current CPI basket and weights were derived from the 1998–99 NSHIE. - Sampling frame for the 1998–99 NSHIE: the 1995 Census of Population and Housing (CPH). - NSHIE sampling frame covered main cities of the 15 departmental states and 2 autonomous regions; therefore, only urban households were investigated. - NSHIE sampling-frame contained 270,090 housing units: 142,092 in Managua and 127,998 in the rest of the country. - Sampling design: - Two sub-populations: Managua and rest of the country. - Two-stage stratified random procedure with replacement. - 4,848 households initially selected: 1,848 in Managua and 3,000 in the rest of the country. - Territory covered 17 major cities: Managua; Ocotal; Somoto; Estelí; León; Chinandega; Masaya; Granada; Jinotepe; Rivas; Boaco; Juigalpa; Matagalpa; Jinotega; San Carlos; Puerto Cabezas; Bluefields. - For each geographic conglomerate, the household sample was distributed over the 12-month survey period (December 1998 to November 1999). - Sample augmentation and final sample: - Sample increased by 15 percent to substitute households refusing to respond. - Final number of conglomerates: 466. - Final number of households surveyed: 5,592. - Sample size calculation targeted an estimation error of 10 percent and a confidence level of 90 percent for each departmental state. - The second-stage sample size: 12 households in each conglomerate to visit one household every month. - Households were stratified by socioeconomic criteria (dwelling characteristics, number of vehicles, suburb) into high, medium, low as proxy for income. - Incomes and expenditures reported in the 1993 Survey of Standard of Living were analyzed to estimate variance. - NSHIE questionnaires were pilot tested and pre-tested. - Tabulations of 1998–99 NSHIE were prepared in sufficient detail for item selection and market basket weight estimation. - Hurricane Mitch (1998) might have affected NSHIE results; the effect was not evaluated. - Valuation in NSHIE: - Purchases of goods and services valued at purchaser’s prices. - Own production valued at market prices. - Imputed rent for owner-occupied housing estimated based on market rents for rental units. - Own production and imputed rent were excluded from the CPI weights. - Purchases in informal markets were included in the weights. - NSHIE results were grossed-up to reflect the population of the survey-sampling frame. ### CPI market basket, outlet sample, and price collection - CPI market basket: - Sample of 138 products and services and 322 varieties. - Aggregated into 9 chapters (COICOP divisions), 27 divisions (COICOP groups), 60 groups (COICOP classes), and 85 sub-groups. - Prices are collected in the 17 major cities of the eight regions. - Price indices compiled for Managua, the rest of the country, and national level. - All expenditure items from the 1998–99 NSHIE with shares greater than 0.05 percent and reported for at least 60 households were included in the CPI market basket. - Outlet sampling for monthly price collection: - Sample of around 6,800 outlets selected using 1998–99 NSHIE shopping patterns and item availability. - Sampling frame for outlets: cartographic maps of the 1995 Population Census. - Sample size calculated with an estimation error of 5 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent for each departmental state. - Sample divided into four week panels of 7 days each covering: 27 percent of the sample in the first 7 days, 25 percent in the second 7 days, 23 percent in the third 7 days, and 25 percent the fourth week. - An effort is made to maintain at least 10 monthly sources for each item. - There are 26,000 monthly price observations/quotations included in the CPI. - Outlet selection criteria (purposive sampling): - Significant consumer sales. - Abundant variety of articles for retailing. - Located in commercial zones with large flow of purchasers. - Availability of a range of goods and services included in the CPI basket. - Selected outlets cover major cities; consumer prices in rural areas are not covered by the CPI. - Item and variety selection: - Item selection based on purchase volume. - Specific varieties selected on basis of stable and significant sales activity. - Field monitoring and external comparisons: - Field agents monitor items regularly to ensure product specifications are up-to-date (especially cloth and technology items). - Price behavior monitored and compared with information from press and other sources (Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Food; Ministry of Energy and Mines; wholesalers; main producer enterprises). ### 3.1.2 Timeliness and recording - Only price data from the monthly price survey conducted by the CBN are used in the published CPI. - Prices are collected between the first and the twenty-eight of each month. - Data are consistently obtained in a timely manner; respondents usually provide information the same day of interview. - Zone supervisors apply follow-up procedures to ensure timely receipt of source data. ### 3.2 Assessment of source data - Nonresponse information: - NSHIE nonresponse: 12 percent in Managua and 18 percent in the rest of the country. - Price survey nonresponse: around 1 percent. - The effect of Hurricane Mitch (November 1998) on NSHIE results was not evaluated. - Information about sampling errors for the price survey is not monitored regularly. - Data about nonsampling errors (survey operations, biases, over/under-coverage, misclassification, processing) are not available. - Price scrutiny: - Prices collected for CPI are scrutinized; atypical prices are verified with respondents before use. - Constant program for review of price collection by the CPI Unit of the CBN. - Variations of more than two standard deviations are verified. - Coverage gap: - The proportion of household final consumption expenditure not covered in regular CPI compilation is not assessed and comprises more than 10 percent; it corresponds to household expenditures in rural areas. ### 3.3 Statistical techniques #### Compilation and editing - Compilation procedures minimize processing errors (coding, editing, tabulation). - Adjustments to individual records are made only when clearly warranted. - Unusual values are not replaced or modified unless clearly required and identifiable in datasets. - Databases do not include footnotes when data are revised; they include codes to identify some causes of revision. #### Index calculation formulas and treatment of missing data - Price relatives at the item level are calculated using the weighted geometric mean of short-term price relatives at variety level. - Weights used are the regional expenditure shares at variety level. - Elementary indices at item level are calculated using the modified Laspeyres index calculation formula. - Higher-level aggregation uses the Laspeyres formula. - Chained indices were introduced in the new series with 1999 as base year. - Temporarily unavailable and seasonally unavailable prices are held constant if prices seem stable. - When substitution item/variety prices are available for permanently unavailable items/varieties, the price change for the substitution item/variety is imputed to the permanently unavailable item/variety. - Potential issues: - Holding temporarily unavailable prices constant can cause large jumps when prices become available again. - Determining permanent unavailability can take several (three) months in some cases; holding the old variety price until permanence is established can create potential permanent uncorrected bias, especially during periods of large price changes. - New varieties and outlets: - New varieties are introduced into the index when two-month observations are available. - Outlets are updated when necessary. - New products are introduced into the CPI only when a major revision of the index is carried out (change in the weight reference period). - Quality adjustments: - Generally only repackaging quality adjustments (volume, weight, count) are made. #### Weighting and aggregation practice - Monetary household consumption expenditure, as defined in the 1993 SNA, is used to establish weights. - Expenditure weights include purchases in all markets, including informal markets. - Recorded value for goods and services represents the economic cost to the consumer at time of purchase regardless of payment method. - An unbiased formula (weighted geometric mean of price ratios or relatives) is used to calculate elementary (item) level indices using short-term price change from the previous period. - Aggregation to higher levels uses the Laspeyres formula. - Current weights derived from monthly average expenditures for December 1998 to November 1999; price reference period of the index is 1999. - Expenditure shares are held constant from the weight reference period; the weight reference period was updated within the past five years (1998–99). - When new weights were introduced, the new index was linked to the old index using internationally accepted splicing method; these series are not publicized. ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs #### Validation against other sources - CPI is compared with other major price indices (agricultural and manufacturing producer price indices). - CPI behavior validated against export and import unit value indices for selected items at detailed level. - Detailed price data compared to information from other sources (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry; Ministry of Energy). - The detailed CPI is compared to implicit deflators of private final consumption expenditures in the national accounts. - Data from micro surveys of activities suspected to have production not covered in regular CPI compilation; data from household and trade surveys; and global estimates based on past benchmarks or judgments are not used to improve coverage of the CPI. #### Investigation of discrepancies and monitoring - The CBN has a program for constant monitoring of price data used in the CPI; atypical prices reviewed with price collectors and respondents before inclusion. - Price data are checked for consistency with prices for similar products in same geographic area and for same products in other geographic areas. - Investigations are made into sources of detected errors and steps are taken to eliminate these error sources. *Source: _cr05426 - 2.3 Classification/sectorization (Price Statistics - Consumer Price Index).* ### 3.5 Revision studies ### 3.5 Revision studies ### Main findings - Studies and analyses of revisions are carried out routinely and used internally to inform statistical processes (see also 4.3.3). - Extensive studies were carried out on the 1998–99 NSHIE with regard to the level of error and consistency in the expenditure data. - Detailed documentation for the survey and these studies are available for use in a special publication of the results of the 1998–99 NSHIE. - The CPI is not revised. CPI data is final when released, but new weights are subject to analysis and validation prior to being incorporated in the index. - Weights obtained from the 1998–99 NSHIE were compared to the weights used in the previous reference base (1984–85 NSHIE), and analyzed. - Periodic weight revisions are not undertaken to determine the bias of the CPI. - Documentation on price data adjustments that include a description of causes of adjustments and the way data are adjusted are not incorporated to the database. - A report on the causes of adjustments is archived and codes are assigned to the causes of missing prices in the database. ### 4. Serviceability ### 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - Prices are collected daily. - The periodicity for the compilation of the CPI is weekly and monthly, meeting GDDS recommendations and SDDS standards. - The monthly CPI is published within 10 to 15 days of the reference month. This exceeds GDDS recommendations and SDDS standards. ### 4.2 Consistency - The all-items CPI index tabulations are consistent whether aggregations are by category of expenditure or by geographical area. - The revised CPI began publication in January 2001 with a price reference period of 1999=100. - Continuous historical series for the CPI, with 1999 as reference base, are available for the period January 1999-December 2004. - This series were linked to the previous series with 1994 as reference base; the linkage information is not published but is available upon request. - Detailed methodological notes identify and explain the main breaks and discontinuities in time series (1956=100, May–October 1972=100, 1980=100, and October–December 1987=100), and their causes are available on the CBN website. No adjustments have been made to maintain consistency over time. - Both the press release and the monthly publication of the CPI on the CBN website include a brief analysis of the index and an explanation of any unusual price behavior. - Consistency was verified by comparing CPI growth rates with those of the PPI and selected import and export price indices, and with the implicit price deflator of private final consumption expenditures in the national accounts. ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - Monthly CPI data are final. In principle, data may be revised only in case of eventual errors. - Although there was a major revision of the CPI in the year 1999, there has not been a historically consistent pattern established for revision of the index. - The household income and expenditure surveys needed for updating the CPI market basket have been conducted almost every 13–19 years, which is not adequate. - The CBN has a plan to carry out NSHIEs every five years. The next NSHIE will be conducted in 2006. - A detailed documentation of the latest CPI revision is available. A detailed publication describing the 1998–99 NSHIE and its results is available to users. - Due to the extensive review process and timeliness of source data, the CPI is published in its final form and no corrections are published. If errors are discovered after publication, corrections are incorporated into the following month’s index with an explanation. - A study on the last CPI revision was publicized, and a special publication, Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares, 1998–1999, contains detailed methodology and results and is available to the public. ### 5. Accessibility ### 5.1 Data accessibility - The CBN Monthly Bulletin, Consumer Price Index (Índices de Precios al Consumidor), presents monthly national-level CPI for December of the previous year and the months of the current year, with tables for Managua, the rest of the country, and national level, including detailed indices, weights, and percentage changes at different levels of COICOP aggregations for December of the previous year and for the previous and current months. An analysis of important price changes and their causes is included. This publication is only available to selected government agencies. - The CBN Quarterly Economic Bulletin (Boletín Económico Trimestral) presents analysis on cumulative inflation for the current year compared with the last two years, underlying inflation, administered prices, and market prices, and includes charts and tables. - The CBN Annual Report (Informe Anual) includes analysis on cumulative inflation for the current year compared to the last two years, underlying inflation, administered prices, tradable and non-tradable goods, and basic basket. - A monthly summary journal, System of Consumer Price Indices (Sistema de Indices de Precios al Consumidor), is posted on the CBN website and includes monthly price indices and price changes at division level for the current and the previous years, an analysis of current price trends, and the monthly cost of the basic basket of goods and services for Managua, the price of each item in this basket, and the cost of the urban basic basket. - Publication formats meet standards, but time series are insufficient and relevant series (e.g., food items) are not disseminated in a seasonally adjusted form. - An executive summary is presented to the press by the president of the CBN each month, containing tables, charts, and an analysis of current trends. - More comprehensive and detailed statistics are disseminated in the CPI hard-copy publication. Current statistics and longer time series can be accessed through the CBN website or by requesting them from the DID of CBN. - The CBN provides detailed price data by product of the basic basket to the Ministry of Development, Industry, and Commerce for weekly release in the press. - There is no published schedule for dissemination of the index. The CBN’s practice of giving a press conference on the tenth of each month and releasing CPI statistics punctually has accustomed users to expect the results on that date. - The public is informed of the statistics being released and procedures to access them at the CBN website and in publications. Publications contain information on the CBN website, CBN PO box address, and fax number. The CBN website also includes two e-mail addresses (bcn@bcn.gob.ni and webmaster@bcn.gon.ni) to direct requests and contact CBN personnel. - CPI statistics are not made available to all interested users simultaneously. Some government agencies receive the CPI before public release if requested. A detailed CPI publication with restrictive access is sent to several government agencies and is not released to the public. - Historical, unpublished, non-confidential CPI data are available for national and regional indices at the item level and at higher-level COICOP aggregations upon request. The availability of additional statistics and procedures for obtaining them are not made known to the public. ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - A summary methodology on the CPI is available to the public at the CBN website in Monthly Economic Indicators. - A detailed methodology on the CPI was prepared by the NISC, Metodología para el Cálculo del IPC de Nicaragua, Sistema de Índices de Precios al Consumidor. This documentation is available at the Center of Documentation of the NISC and at the CBN website. - Information on 1998–99 NSHIE (survey characteristics, response rates, survey monitoring, method, sample frame, sample design and selection, critic, coding, and editing, data processing, and monthly average household income, and expenditure by item, class, group, and division and region) were published in the Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares 1998-1999 available in hard copy and CD. - CPI methodologies that give complete documentation of concepts, scope, classification system, data sources and statistical techniques are available in hard copy at the NISC Documentation Center and on the CBN website. These publications are designed for different types of index users from the typical consumer (methodological notes of the Monthly Economic Indicators) to the economic analyst (detailed methodology). ### 5.3 Assistance to users - Prompt and knowledgeable service and support on the CPI is available through the Department of Public Service at the CBN Library; key personnel are listed in the CPI methodology. - Assistance to users is monitored through data requests but is not reviewed periodically. - The NISC has prepared presentations to raise awareness on the use of the CPI for schools, high schools, and universities. - A list of CBN publications and CDs is available from the CBN Library and on the CBN website. Assistance is provided in placing orders at the Library. CBN publications are free of charge. ### Summary findings from the Data Quality Assessment Framework (July 2003) - Legal and institutional environment: The CBN Law does not clearly assign responsibility for compiling price statistics to the CBN; informal agreements for data sharing but infrequent communication; sanctions for nonresponse are outdated and rarely applied. - Resources: The DID does not have sufficient staff for analyzing CPI data and development work (1 professional). All price analysts and compilers at the ECNS are contractual personnel. Many computers do not have enough data processing capacity and the number of printers (1) at the ECNS and their speed is insufficient. There will be a shortage of resources for the conduction of the 2006 NHSIE and the compilation and dissemination of a CPI with a new reference base. Restricted access to Internet and email. Regular attendance to price indices courses and seminar is needed. - Relevance: No formal consultation process with policy departments and index users (no user surveys or advisory committee). Some users’ needs are monitored through data requests. - Other quality management: Response rates to price surveys and editing rates are not calculated. Data adjustment history is not kept. Users’ committees created when a new survey is conducted. - Professionalism / Transparency / Ethical standards: Government access to price indices prior to official release is not publicly known. In practice, the approval process of CPI results is exempt from outside interference. - Scope and concepts: Only urban households are in the scope of the index. Imputed rentals of owner-occupied housing are excluded. Some departures from standard COICOP (e.g., alcoholic beverages, tobacco, restaurants, and hotels). Discounts through bargaining are not included in price data. Durable items such as automobiles were not recorded as acquisitions less disposals; vehicles were excluded from the index in 2000 due to their low weight in 1999. - Source data and accuracy: Final consumption expenditure and prices in rural areas are not covered. The share of consumption expenditure not covered by the index is more than 10 percent. Nonresponse rates to price surveys are not monitored. Nonsampling errors are not calculated. In some cases, previous price data are imputed for missing prices introducing possible bias. Changes in product specifications/quality are introduced after there are two price observations available. New products are introduced only when a major revision is carried out. - Revision studies and practices: Monthly CPI data are final. Notes on price data adjustments are not stored in the database. Weights are not periodically assessed for bias. A study on the last major revision (1999=100) was carried out. - Accessibility: Detail in the CPI publication released to the public is insufficient. Seasonally adjusted series are not published. Underlying (core) inflation calculated with a sub-set of items is disseminated. No published schedule of release dates, but practice of releasing CPI statistics punctually on the 10th of each month. CPI is available to some users prior to public release. A detailed publication is sent to a restricted group of users. Difficulty in determining what detailed data are available upon request and the procedures to obtain them. *Source: _cr05426 - 3.5 Revision studies (IMF staff report content).* ### 0.1 Legal and institutional environment ### 0.1 Legal and institutional environment ### Responsibilities for compiling and disseminating the PPI - The monthly producer price indices (PPIs) for agriculture and manufacturing are compiled by the CBN. The CBN also produces price indices for domestic manufactured inputs and construction materials. - Operational responsibility for collecting, compiling, and analyzing the PPI lies with the ECNS in the ESM of the CBN. - Analysis of results, methodological improvements, and dissemination lies with the DID of the ESM. - There is no other institution that compiles PPIs. - The CBN Organic Law (No. 317, 03/30/01) does not clearly assign responsibility for compiling and disseminating a PPI to the CBN; Article 60 grants the CBN the right to collect statistical data for statistical purposes and macroeconomic analysis. - Articles 26 (7) of the CBN Law and 138 (28) of the Political Constitution of Nicaragua (01/18/00) require the CBN president to submit an annual report to the Board and the National Assembly; Article 31 (3) of the CBN Law specifies content and publication of an Annual Report submitted during the first three months of each year. - Article 7 of the NISC Law (Decree No. 888, 10/30/81) establishes NISC duties to centralize statistical activities of governmental and mixed entities, but NISC is not currently directly involved in PPI compilation. - The legal framework for the CBN and the NISC is being updated; some NISC functions exceed current financial capacity. It would be necessary to provide the NISC with sufficient resources to ensure that the PPI is compiled with adequate quality and timeliness. ### Data sharing and coordination among data-producing agencies - The CBN is self-sufficient in PPI production; all price and source data for weights are collected and tabulated within the CBN. - The sampling frame (economic register) used to define the enterprise sample for the PPI was provided by the NISC to the CBN. - The NSS includes the NISC, all ministries, decentralized public entities, local governments, public enterprises, and other data producing agencies. - Article 3 of the NISC Law mandates avoiding duplication and ensuring comparability of statistical information; Article 18 envisages a Coordination Committee of the NSS and sector committees. - Functioning sector committees include external trade, free zones, agriculture, employment, and salary statistics. - The National Strategy of Statistical Development (NSSD) envisages a National Committee including NSS representatives, civil society, and international organizations. - Coordination has not been completely effective due to decentralization; for example, the MFPC has not provided income tax records (including annual sale values of manufacturing products) to the CBN because of confidentiality concerns, despite requests for aggregated data by economic activity and/or product. - There are no formal data sharing agreements among data producing agencies; data sharing is based on informal agreements and personal relations. - Efforts to strengthen technical cooperation are ongoing through revision of the NISC Law, the Coordination Committee of the NSS, the National Committee of the NSSD, and sector committees. ### Confidentiality and access to individual reporters’ data - Article 61 of the CBN Law obligates CBN directors, officers, and employees to safeguard confidentiality; violations are sanctioned under the Bank’s by-laws and potentially criminal law. - Article 10 of the CBN by-law lists release of confidential information as cause for contract termination; the CBN president can fire non-complying personnel. - Article 56 of the CBN by-law establishes confidentiality of databases; Article 77 requires secrecy/discretion by employees; infractions and sanctions are defined in Article 61 of the CBN Law and Article 78 of the by-law. - Access to confidential data is restricted to employees who require it for their duties; CBN personnel compiling the PPI have access to individual source information and are aware of confidentiality obligations and penalties. - Requests by other institutions for individual enterprise data have been refused in accordance with the law. When unit records are made available for research, records are anonymized and special aggregation rules prevent residual disclosure. - ECNS procedures ensure dissemination only at aggregated levels. Questionnaires are archived; after two years they are destroyed. - Respondents receive a letter informing them of the purpose and confidentiality of the request. Price data are collected by interviews; price surveys include the CBN logo, title “Monthly Survey of Price Indices of Industrial Products and Inputs”, collector name, and enterprise identification and code. - ISM security measures: Article 66 of the CBN by-law requires internal net resources be protected by passwords or access lists. The intranet requires authorized user name and password; user profiles established via Windows 2003. Measures include an external firewall, an antispam module, and an antivirus. PPI databases are administered by the ECNS. ### Legal mandate and measures to encourage reporting - Article 60: Central Government offices, municipal governments, governmental credit institutions, banks, and any person or enterprise with residence or domicile in Nicaraguan territory are obligated to supply the Central Bank with requested statistical information for statistical purposes and macroeconomic analysis. - Penalties for noncompliance: a fine of one thousand to ten thousand córdobas for each occurrence ($60.61–$606.10 as of January 2005). These penalties are low and there is no mechanism to preserve their value in real terms. - Enabling legal provisions to request information have been rarely invoked; penalties for noncompliance have not been levied. Regulations to apply penalties are not clear; authorities prefer encouraging voluntary reporting through explanation of purpose, confidentiality, and importance. - Surveys and censuses are announced via radio, television, and newspapers. The CBN assists respondents through visits and provides a point of contact. - Price survey nonresponse is around one percent. - Nonresponding enterprises are visited by supervisors or coordinators to encourage reporting; refusals are substituted by other enterprises producing the same item in the same area. - Statistical information and CBN annual reports are provided to respondents when requested, sometimes free of charge. - Instruments are designed to reduce respondent burden; enterprise visits are typically once a month. ### Resources: staff, facilities, computing, and financing - Current PPI coverage: 136 products from 420 manufacturing establishments. - CBN plans: expand PPI to integrate agriculture, mining, and construction indices in 2006 with the new base year of the national accounts; incorporate prices of imported inputs into the price index of manufactured inputs in 2005 and formally publish the new PPI to serve as input for quarterly national accounts. - Present resources are broadly adequate for the current PPI but will be insufficient (human and financial) for an expanded PPI meeting international standards. - Staffing assigned to PPI: - Total staff: 24 (Permanent 2; Contractual 22). - Department Unit: Permanent 2, Contractual 0, Total 2. - Chief: Permanent 1, Contractual 0, Total 1. - Professional: Permanent 1, Contractual 0, Total 1. - Executive Coordination of National Surveys (PPI) Processing Unit: Permanent 0, Contractual 9, Total 9. - Programming developer: Permanent 0, Contractual 5, Total 1. [source text lists "0 5 1"—preserve as presented] - Processors: Permanent 0, Contractual 4, Total 4. - Analysis Unit: Permanent 0, Contractual 4, Total 4. - Chief (Analysis Unit): Permanent 0, Contractual 1, Total 1. - Assistant: Permanent 0, Contractual 1, Total 1. - Analysts: Permanent 0, Contractual 2, Total 2. - PPI Section: Permanent 0, Contractual 9, Total 9. - Supervisor: Permanent 0, Contractual 1, Total 1. - Field agents: Permanent 0, Contractual 8, Total 4. [source text lists "0 8 4"—preserve as presented] - Only 1 professional within the DID is assigned to analyze PPI data and methodological improvements; 8 field agents, 1 supervisor, and 2 data analysts within the ECNS are assigned to collection and compilation. - Price collection staff: 4 price collectors in Managua and 5 in other departmental states covered by the index. - The staff assigned to analysis and methodological improvements (1 professional) and data processing/validation (4 processors, 2 analysts) is insufficient. Data processors also process all CBN surveys except CPI. - Nearly ninety-two percent of the staff working on the PPI is contractual personnel. - Average seniority of staff in the PPI is 4 years. - Training: on-the-job and formal training (including ECLAC, CAMC, Cesd-Madrid); not regularly offered. - Salaries: monthly salaries are around $200 for data processors, $300 for analysts, and $450 for professionals. - Computing equipment: - DID: 2 computers (mainly Pentium 4), 1 server, 2 printers; only 1 computer has Internet access; only supervisors have CBN e-mail accounts. - ECNS: 12 computers, 4 printers, 1 net administrator, 2 servers; only 7 computers are Pentium 4. - Distribution of computers considers task assignments; CBN plans to incorporate more equipment into ECNS. - Software and systems: - PPI currently computed using applications developed in FOXPRO; an Access database stores PPI data. - CBN plans to develop applications in Visual Basic 6.0 and migrate PPI database to SQL Server. - Daily back up of PPI data is made. - Available analysis software: Office 2000 (Excel, Word, Power Point), E-Views, ARIMA, Tramo Seats, SPSS. - Software is not regularly updated due to budget constraints. - Physical facilities: CBN building has adequate cooling, space, restrooms, and power systems; office furniture and equipment adequate. - Transportation: 1 vehicle for PPI data collection shared with other programs; inadequate but priority given to PPI compilation. - Financial resources: - Funding provided under CBN budgetary process. - Budget for the PPI program in 2005 is 1.894 million córdobas ($114,787.87 as of January 2005). - Short- and medium-term work programs are included in the budgetary process; funding requests for special projects are part of the normal budgetary process. ### Measures to ensure efficient use of resources and modernization plans - Strategic and planning framework: - CBN four-year strategic plan (2004–2007) to increase quality and timeliness and improve efficiency; broken into annual work plans administered by units in coordination with SOP. - SOP meets with units every quarter to review progress; units review monthly. - Performance evaluation: personnel evaluated annually through semiannual advances; follow-up and tests for promotions. - Clear assignment of responsibilities between DID and ECNS; supervisors within the RSM meet regularly. - Budget quarterly reviewed to ensure efficient use of scarce resources. - Data processing and productivity: - Daily productivity rates are calculated for data collection, processing, and analysis. - Clarifications are sought with respondents for errors and inconsistencies; databases undergo additional consistency checks. - Plans to develop a more efficient application in Visual Basic 6.0 and introduce SQL Server for improved validation and digital records of corrections and revisions. - ISM modernization initiatives: - Active program to adopt new computing technology, including Internet dissemination. - Plans to introduce Data Transformation Services to reduce time and cost of collection, coding, editing, validation, and tabulation. - Plans to install survey design software and implement Palm Pilot data collection to avoid transcription, with direct server downloads. - Staff training planned for On Line Analytical Processes (OLAP), indicator systems, and dynamic tables. - Decentralized dissemination: data-producing units to post statistical products automatically on the CBN website. - Plans to use free software such as Linux in non-critical areas to reduce costs. - Technical assistance: ECNS and DID have not received technical assistance specifically regarding the PPI compilation process but have received assistance from independent consultants for integrating different price indices into an expanded PPI. *Source: _cr05426 - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment* ### 0.3 Relevance ### _cr05426 - 0.3 Relevance ### 0.3 Relevance and user engagement - The CBN Library and website provide timely information on CBN’s statistical products. - The Department of Public Service of the Library monitors and keeps records on users’ requests and non-satisfied needs. - The CBN does not have regular meetings with entities participating in the NSS to discuss statistical development and establish new data requirements. - The National Committee of the NSSD and the Coordination Committee of the NSS include key public and private users. - The CBN website provides two e-mail addresses for user contact: bcn@bcn.gob.ni and webmaster@bcn.gob.ni. - The English version of the website contains the message: “We welcome all comments and suggestions for other information that may be of use to researchers, investors, financial entities, and the general public.” - When a new census or survey is conducted, a users’ committee is created to include users’ data requests in questionnaires where relevant. - The NISC conducted a survey on statistics demand in 2003. - CBN staff participate in meetings and seminars on price statistics as budgetary constraints permit. ### 0.4 Other quality management — processes and practices - The CBN strategic plan, administered by organizational units under the direction of the MOP, has essential characteristics of a total quality management program and aims to improve the quality and timeliness of statistics. - The president and managers meet regularly with the media to inform on economic developments and report on projects for improving statistical quality. - Price collectors and analysts are annually trained on errors to be avoided (respondent errors, errors when completing questionnaires, transcription errors, and analysis errors); these training courses have been conducted since 2002. - Complete monitoring processes are not in place to inform managers on the quality of ongoing statistical activities (e.g., editing rates, revisions history, and timeliness evaluations). - Compilers have access to expert guidance when international organizations donate or lend resources to hire experts or when the CBN contracts experts despite budget constraints. - Quality assurance for the PPI: - Established practices and procedures cover data collection, data processing, index tabulation, and dissemination. - Manuals exist for price collectors. - Monthly price collection is reviewed at product and activity levels; problems are referred to section and unit supervisors. - Data entry and screening are handled at the ECNS; computer listings permit review and validation at each compilation level. - Errors detected are corrected after consultation with respondents when necessary. - Index aggregates are reviewed and analyzed by CBN staff at various administrative levels before publication. - A program of monthly visits oversees regional price collection and verifies abnormalities detected during ECNS and DID reviews. - Supervisors verify information from a sub-sample of questionnaires during visits; staff keep records of usual errors and improvements to incorporate into new surveys. - The four-year strategic planning system demonstrates commitment to quality assurance and trade-offs among resource availability, timeliness, and accuracy/reliability. - The CBN has an ongoing program to identify changes in specifications for PPI basket items, especially clothing and metallic products; new item specifications are introduced as needed. - No official mechanisms (user survey or advisory groups) exist for regular feedback on methodological issues; ad hoc groups are convened when changes are considered, focusing mainly on methodological soundness rather than users’ needs. - Users’ needs are monitored through data requests and users’ comments obtained via the CBN website; the Coordination Committee of the NSS and the National Committee of the NSSD are expected to play an important role. ### 1. Assurances of integrity — Professionalism and transparency - 1.1 Professionalism - In practice, the PPI is produced and disseminated without outside influence. - CBN regulations do not specifically cover attempts at interference by parties outside the CBN. - The CBN Board of Directors includes the minister of the MFPC, presenting a potential conflict of interest risk; Articles cited in the CBN law define Board composition and appointment procedures: - Article 15: composition of the Board and term alignment with the President of the Republic. - Article 62: appointment procedures for the four Board members, including staggering of terms. - These regulations are stated to avoid political influence because Board decisions are made by consensus of the majority. - Article 16 requires Board members to be “... of recognized moral integrity, economically solvent, and professionally qualified ...”. - Article 25 requires the president of the CBN to “... be of recognized moral integrity and professional competence ...”. - Hiring and promotion are governed by CBN regulations and based on professional merit: - Articles 7 (d) and (f) of the CBN by-law require academic, technical or work experience and satisfactory aptitude and competence tests. - Articles 14 to 17 regulate promotions; CBN personnel have priority to fill vacancies according to merits. - Professionalism promoted through training, workshops, and seminars; attendees must present training contents to colleagues. - The Department of Human Resource Development (DHRD) under the CBN Human Resources Sub-Management (HRS) manages personnel training. - Article 77 (k) of the CBN by-law obliges employees “to attend courses and other training activities convened with the administration, as well as to attend national and international seminars or meetings of interest of the institution.” - CBN employees are encouraged to carry out research and participate in conferences; methodological studies are circulated internally and externally when appropriate; institutional papers for publication must be approved by CBN administration. - 1.1.2 Choices of sources and techniques - Selection of source data and statistical techniques is based solely on statistical considerations. - Sources and methods for compiling the PPI are fully under CBN control and follow international standards. - A summary documentation on source data and methodology for the PPI has been prepared and is available to the public. - 1.1.3 Right to comment on misuse - The CBN responds to erroneous interpretations through press releases and other means; the president and the manager are entitled to respond to public criticism of statistics. - 1.2 Transparency - Article 131 of the Political Constitution of Nicaragua requires staff of state powers to inform the population on their work. - The CBN website includes summary methodology and technical conditions for the PPI and posts the CBN Law (informing on confidentiality and professionalism). - The CBN By-Law or a summary of its articles dealing with staff professionalism have not been posted on the website. - The CBN website (www.bcn.gob.ni) contains a directory of key personnel and two email addresses for requests and suggestions. - CBN publications contain information on the CBN website, PO Box, and the fax number of the ESM. - The CBN Library has a unit providing information to the public. - Internal governmental access prior to release: - Approval of published index series is stated to be exempt from outside interference. - CBN publications are authorized by the CBN Board of Directors, but there are no specific regulations guiding the approval process; in practice, PPI release and publications are authorized by the manager of Economic Studies. - Products identification: - All CBN publications include the Bank’s logo; joint publications identify each entity with logos or footnotes. - The CBN has a policy of releasing PPI publications in a standard format (titles, colors, typography). - Advance notice: - Major changes in methodology or data sources are publicized before implementation. - Questionnaires for manufacturing were presented ahead of implementation to a group of researchers and specialized users. - 1.3 Ethical standards - Manuals for field agents and supervisors provide staff behavior guidelines. - CBN staff are not authorized to alter statistical data received from respondents. - The CBN By-Laws contains rules of staff conduct (Chapter VIII) and Article 61 of the CBN Law and Article 77 of the By-Laws require staff discretion on reserved affairs. - Obligations include: “... to provide their service with efficiency, honesty, dedication, responsibility, loyalty, and constant improvement ...” and to “observe decorous conduct ... in their relations with peers and the public.” - Prohibitions (Article 77) include: - (c) “To receive from the public any invitation or gift ... that can be related to expedite paperwork or transactions ...” - (i) “to use, for own benefit or third parties’ benefit, values or goods of the Institution....” - Article 78 lists sanctions: verbal and written reprehension, work suspension without salary, and dismissal. - Each new employee is informed of the CBN Law and regulations and is given a personal copy. ### 2. Methodological soundness — Concepts, scope, classification, and recording - 2.1 Concepts and definitions - PPIs and input price indices are based on concepts and definitions consistent with the 1993 SNA and the new PPI Manual 2004. - Only sales are included in manufacturing PPI weights; changes in inventories and own-account production for final use are excluded. - The level of detail for commodities and economic activities permits analysis at division, group, and class of the ISIC Rev. 3, and at 4,5, and 6 digits of the CPC at product level. - 2.2 Scope - Current PPIs cover agriculture (including livestock), fishing, and manufacturing sectors. - Excluded: mineral extraction and water and electricity production. - The manufacturing PPI excludes goods for processing (maquila) except garment enterprises in the free zone. - Coverage of manufacturing activities is incomplete: 50 percent of total sales are covered as only urban enterprises with more than 30 employees are included in the enterprise sample used to calculate PPI weights. - Grossing-up factors were not used to calculate weights; these are deviations from international practices. - The PPI historically covered production sold in the domestic market only; recently, exports were included. - Price indices on domestic manufactured inputs and construction materials are available. - As part of updating the national accounts to the base year 2005, the CBN plans to compile and publish a new PPI covering agriculture, fishing, mining, manufacturing, electricity and water production. - 2.3 Classification/sectorization - The PPI is classified using the Nicaraguan version of the ISIC Rev. 3 and the CPC, with some departures from the standard ISIC regarding some activity classes and industrial services. - 2.4 Basis for recording - 2.4.1 Market prices - Weights for agricultural and manufacturing PPIs are determined using values for production based on farm/factory gate producer prices, excluding taxes, transportation costs and commercial margins. - Input price index weights deviate from purchasers’ prices by not including distribution margins and non-deductible VAT. - 2.4.2 Accrual basis - Business accounting for annual sales (July (t-1)–June t) of around 80 percent of the enterprise sample differs from calendar years; adjustments were made to adjust sales to calendar years. - For estimation of weights and monthly price collection, values are determined on an accrual basis. - For monthly price collection, the market price at the moment of the transaction during the survey period is recorded. - 2.4.3 Grossing/netting procedures - For manufacturing there is not a significant problem with grossing and netting procedures for the PPI. - For enterprises producing significant amounts of dissimilar outputs (e.g., sugar cane and sugar, cooking oil and soap), production is separated and treated as if produced by two separate establishments; “transactions” between these “establishments” are recorded on a gross basis. - This separation is often facilitated by enterprise accounting practices using separate cost centers. *Source: _cr05426 - 0.3 Relevance (PDF).* ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### _cr05426 - 3. Accuracy and reliability ### 3.1 Source data - Source data are obtained from comprehensive data collection programs that take into account country-specific conditions, but coverage is insufficient. - Sampling frame and census context: - Sampling-frame of the PPI was the 1996 Economic Census. - 1996 Economic Census: 87.5 percent of total manufacturing establishments had 1 to 3 employees, and 10.4 percent had 4 to 9 employees. - 2000 Economic Census: 82.5 percent of total manufacturing establishments had 1 to 3 employees and 12.9 percent had 4 to 9 employees. - In 2000: 87.1 percent of establishments producing food items had 1 to 3 employees; 94 percent of textile establishments had 1 to 3 employees; 82.6 percent of establishments producing metallic products had 1 to 3 employees. - 1994 PPI enterprise sample coverage: - Covered sales of establishments with more than 30 employees and at least 0.5 percent of total sales of the 1994 enterprise sample — implying serious problems with economic coverage (see 2.2 Scope). - Updates and registers: - Although a new economic census was conducted in 2000, its results have not been used to update the enterprise sample and weights of the PPI. - The business register is not updated regularly. - Household and small enterprises are not included in the PPI weights. - No regular meetings with producers’ associations. - Availability and sample coverage: - PPI available for internal CBN use since 2000; released to the public in May 2004. - Enterprise sample in the monthly pricing survey accounts for only 50 percent of manufacturing sales for 2000 according to the economic census (excluding goods for processing). - Generally only one product is priced in each enterprise; no secondary products are priced. - Sampling and selection: - Weight calculations selected enterprises with the largest sale values at activity and product level; no scientific sampling procedures were employed. - Ongoing surveys: - CBN conducting a continuous annual economic survey. Data available for 2002; data for 2003 and 2004 are being collected. - Price collection history: - Up to 1999, manufacturing producer prices were obtained by calculating unit values from monthly manufacturing data on values and volumes of sales by product. - Since 2000, a price survey obtains price quotations directly by visiting enterprises once a month on the same date each month. ### 3.2 Assessment of source data - General assessment practices: - Assessment of source data is routinely conducted. - Unusually large movements in prices are traced back to the enterprise for verification when warranted. - Suspicious data are usually verified by contacting the respondent a second time. - Post-enumeration checks are made. - Gaps in assessment: - Low, non-response rates to price surveys are not monitored. - Sampling and nonsampling errors are not calculated. - Coverage of the sample is not assessed according to the total manufacturing sampling frame (output/value added). ### 3.3 Statistical techniques - Weights and index base issues: - PPI weights are outdated (1994=100). - Reference periods for weights (1994=100) and the index (1999=100) are not the same. - The sales shares are held constant from the weight reference period; weight reference period was not updated within the past ten years. - Index calculation and aggregation: - The PPI is calculated using the current-period-to-previous-period (short-term price change) formulation of the Laspeyres index calculation formula. - An unbiased formula (weighted geometric mean of price ratios or relatives) is used to calculate elementary (item) level indices when the item has several varieties. - Aggregation from elementary indices to higher levels uses the Laspeyres formula. - The use of the geometric mean for price changes and linking is a sound practice. - Treatment of missing and new items: - Temporarily unavailable and seasonally unavailable prices are held constant if prices seem stable; this can cause large jumps when prices reappear. - For permanently unavailable items, price changes are imputed when substitution item/variety prices are available; however, permanent unavailability can cause potential permanent bias if no timely imputation is made. - New varieties are introduced when two-month observations are available. - New products are introduced into the PPI only when a major revision of the index is carried out (change in the weight reference period). - Quality adjustments and validation: - In general, only repackaging quality adjustments (adjustments for volume, weight, or count) for PPI items/varieties are made. - Current data validation and analysis procedures are manual and do not ensure that coding, editing, and tabulation errors are prevented; automatic validation and cross-checking will be implemented. - Specific weight composition notes: - Gross sales were used to establish the manufacturing PPI weights. - Work in progress (trabajos en curso) is not included in the agricultural PPI weights. - Linking and publicity: - When new weights were introduced, the new index was linked to the old index using the splicing method; these series are not publicized. - Documentation practices: - Notes on price data adjustments are not stored in the database. ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - Cross-validation: - Where possible, PPI price and index data are compared to corresponding data from the CPI and other price data from government ministries. - PPIs are compared to implicit price indices in the national accounts. - Investigation and documentation: - Unusual price behavior is investigated and corrections are made; however, no documentation is prepared. - No formal studies are conducted to investigate errors, omissions, and fluctuations in the data. ### 3.5 Revision studies - Revision frequency and practice: - Monthly PPI data are final. - Weights have not been revised since 1994 and are not periodically assessed for bias. - Since the PPI was recently published, there are no revisions of published data. - CBN is updating the base year of the national accounts to the year 2005 and plans to expand the coverage of the PPI and update the weights to the year 2005 at the same time. - Public analysis: - Studies and analyses of revisions are not available; notes on price data adjustments are not stored. ### 4 Serviceability #### 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - Periodicity: - Prices are collected daily. - The PPI compilation periodicity is monthly, meeting GDDS recommendations and SDDS standards. - Timeliness: - The monthly PPI is published within 15 to 20 days of the reference month — this exceeds GDDS and SDDS standards. #### 4.2 Consistency - Internal consistency: - The PPI is internally consistent by activity branch and product. - Time consistency: - Long-term series with 1994=100 as a weight reference base are available up to December 2004. - PPIs with 1999=100 were linked to the previous series with 1994=100. - Monthly index series are available since 1992. - Consistency with other frameworks: - The PPI is consistent with other government statistics as well as with national accounts implicit price deflators. #### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - Revision schedule and identification: - There is no well-established schedule for revising the weights for the PPI; weights have not been updated since the index was first compiled. - As part of updating the national accounts base year to 2005, the PPI will be expanded and updated. - When data are revised, preliminary and revised data are not identified. - Public studies: - Documentation of the methodology for compiling the index has been prepared and is available on the CBN website. - No other analysis of the index or its potential revision has been documented. ### 5 Accessibility #### 5.1 Data accessibility - Presentation and publications: - No press release or analysis on current trends is made on PPIs. - PPIs are only disseminated on the CBN website; a hard-copy publication on PPIs is not prepared. - PPIs are published in the Economic Indicators publication. - Certain relevant series are not seasonally adjusted. - Time series from January 1994 up to December 2004 can be accessed through the CBN website. - Detailed indices and price changes at product level are not published. - Dissemination media and schedule: - PPI data are published only on the CBN website and in Economic Indicators; there is no special publication for the PPI such as the one for the CPI. - Advance release calendars are not available. - PPIs are made available to all users at the same time through the CBN website. - Publications contain information on the CBN website, PO box address, fax number, and two e-mail addresses (bcn@bcn.gob.ni and webmaster@bcn.gon.ni) for requests and contact. - Data on request: - Difficulty exists in determining which nonpublished nonconfidential data are available upon request and the procedures to obtain them. - Detailed data are not always available upon request. #### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - Documentation: - A summary methodological document on the PPI describing the weight estimation process and the index calculation methodology is available on the CBN website; this is the only document provided to the public. - A more detailed methodology is available at the DID but is not published. - No detailed documentation for specialized audiences is available. #### 5.3 Assistance to users - Contact points and user support: - Prompt and knowledgeable service and support on the PPI is available through the Department of Public Service at the CBN Library; key personnel are listed in the PPI methodology. - Assistance to users is monitored through data requests but is not reviewed periodically. - Catalogs and publications: - A list of CBN publications and CDs is available from the CBN Library and on the CBN website. - Assistance is provided in placing orders at the Library. - CBN publications are free of charge. ### Key assessment and resource points from Table 3 (summary) - Legal and institutional environment: - CBN Law does not clearly assign responsibility for compiling price statistics to the CBN; informal agreements of data sharing and infrequent communication; sanctions for nonresponse are outdated and not applied. - Resources: - ECNS and DID staffing and resources: 4 data processors, 2 analysts, and 1 professional for development work. - Data processors also process data from other surveys; price analysts and compilers at the ECNS are contractual personnel. - Some computer resources need updating; only one vehicle available for price collection. - Anticipated shortage of human and financial resources for compiling and disseminating an integrated PPI with a new reference base. - Relevance and consultation: - No formal process for consultation with policy departments and index users (no user surveys or advisory committee); some users’ needs monitored through data requests. - Methodological soundness and scope: - Weights are based on sales instead of output; changes in inventories and own-account production are excluded. - Weights cover only 50 percent of the manufacturing sector captured in the 2000 Business Register; free zones and goods for processing (Maquila) are not covered. - Some activity branches and industrial services are not classified according to international standards. - Business accounting periods for sales of 80 percent of enterprises in the sample differ from calendar years; adjustments were made. - Distribution margins and non-deductible VAT were not included in input price indices’ weights. - Accuracy and reliability (summary): - 2000 Business Register is not updated regularly; sample was not stratified; household enterprises are not included; only main establishment and product are investigated; no secondary goods included; no regular meetings with producers’ associations. - Low nonresponse rates not monitored; sampling and nonsampling errors not calculated; sample coverage not assessed against the business register (total sales, output or value added). *Source: _cr05426 - 3. Accuracy and reliability (PDF chapter/section).* ### 3.3 Statistical t ### 3.3 Statistical t ### Producer Price Index: compilation and quality issues - Weights used are outdated (1994=100). - Grossing-up factors were not used to calculate weights. - In some cases, previous price data are imputed for missing prices introducing a possible bias in the index. - Changes in product specifications/quality are introduced after there are two price observations available. - New products are introduced only when a major revision is carried out. - Current data validation (manual) and analysis procedures do not ensure that codification, editing, and tabulation errors are minimal. - Price reference period 1999=100 and weights reference period are not the same (1994=100). ### Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - No documentation on unusual changes in price variations is prepared and disseminated. ### Revision studies and documentation - Notes on price data adjustments are not stored in the database. - Weights have not been revised since 1994 and are not periodically assessed for bias. - The change in the price reference period (1999=100) was documented. However, an analysis of the revision was not prepared. - Changes in the reference base of the index do not follow a regular schedule. - Documentation on the change of price reference period was published, but an analysis on the revision is not available. ### Accessibility of price statistics - Charts and an analysis of price trends are not disseminated with the data. - Information by product and seasonally adjusted series are not published. - No preannounced schedule is available. - Difficulty in determining which nonpublished nonconfidential data are available upon request and the procedures to obtain them. - A commendable effort has been made by disseminating updated methodology. However, the level of detail, while adequate for a general audience, does not have enough information for the specialist community. - Assistance to users: practice largely not observed. --- ### Government Finance Statistics (GFS) — Institutional and quality framework ### Prerequisites of quality — Legal and institutional environment - The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (MFPC) is responsible for collecting, processing, and disseminating fiscal statistics corresponding to the central government. - Constitutional basis: Political Constitution, chapter 3, Article 112 (Executive Power formulates the budget) and Article 113 (Projected Annual Budget Law should contain the budget of autonomous decentralized entities and state enterprises). - Laws referenced: Law 290 (Law of Organization, Competence and Procedures of the Executive Power), Law 51 (“Law of the Budgetary Regimen”), Law 136 (“Reform and Additions to the Budgetary Regimen”), Law 339, Decree 44-98, Decree 20-2003. - Specific responsibilities: GDPC (domestic and foreign debt management), General Directorate of Government Accounting (SIGFA sub-system management and consolidation), GDI (revenue operations), DGA (customs and international transactions). ### Data sharing and coordination - The MFPC through the GDB collects underlying information on government operations supported by SIGFA, covering operations performed by the General Treasury of the Republic, DGI, DGA, General Directorate of Government Accounting, and the General Directorate of Public Credit. - There is a committee for MFPC entities, DGI and DGA to reconcile statistics and data sharing on weekly meetings; there is also a coordination committee with the CBN. - No formal bylaws or ministerial decrees or institutional arrangements for the functioning of these committees. - Close coordination with the fiscal sector unit of the Research Department in the CBN assists compilation of external loans, foreign grants, amortization, interest paid, and internal flows related to MFPC and CBN operations. ### Confidentiality and reporting mandates - Data reported by each government entity are confidential; after SIGFA processes and consolidates the data for accounting purposes, the aggregated data reported by each entity are no longer confidential. - Laws determine publication of data by the MFPC (Law of Budget Procedures and Annual Budget Law); only government entities included in the annual budget have a legal mandate to report their operations to the MFPC. ### Resources and capacity - The unit compiling GFS in the MFPC has adequate personnel and material resources, including sufficient computing equipment. - The statistical compilers (only three staff members) in the GDB do not have a relational database to store chronological time series and to generate analytical tables and make projections. - Only few experienced compilers are well trained in "A Manual on Government Finance Statistics, 1986 (GFSM 1986)"; none have attended suitable training courses, and they have little familiarity with the Government Financial Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001). - No system in place to ensure efficient use of resources or to measure the cost of statistical work. - No formal system for evaluating the personal performance of the compilers of fiscal data; ongoing process of evaluation in completion of the work program is reported. - The cost of compiling fiscal data is not determined, although it is possible to calculate the expenditure of the unit that compiles fiscal data. ### Relevance and user engagement - The MFPC is open to feedback from GFS users but does not actively seek out comments nor has a mechanism to identify new or emerging data requirements. - Budgetary statistics are mainly relevant to monitor execution of the annual budget and to be used as an indicator of government activity. - The MFPC does not prepare GFS data for general government and/or the nonfinancial public sector. - SIGFA needs were evaluated and agreed for official users; the quarterly report is disseminated to the public through Internet with summarized data and annex tables. ### Quality management processes - Use of data generated by SIGFA gives assurance that data compiled are based on administrative and accounting records. - MFPC is systematically reviewing classification and coherence of reports prepared by SIGFA; IDB and WB have assisted in developing a system for medium-term projections and reviewing classifications. - No formal quality management program is in place. - SIGFA coverage is being reviewed to expand and develop a module for municipalities; future expansion to cover nonfinancial public corporations is planned. --- ### GFS — Assurances of integrity and methodological soundness ### Professionalism and impartiality - Fiscal data compiled by the MFPC are based on SIGFA and therefore are produced on an impartial basis. - The culture of professionalism is recognized and supported by the Law of Civil Service of 2004, but there are no laws or formal arrangements to support professional independence of GFS compilers. - Compilers report emerging issues to authorities; only authorized officials can publicly comment on erroneous interpretation of the data. ### Transparency and public access - Public access to budget legislation and project information (SIGFA) is available, but MFPC does not make available to the public the terms and conditions under which GFS are collected, compiled, and disseminated. - Users are not made aware that the coverage of central government data is incomplete and that more complete coverage of central government, local governments (including some nonfinancial public enterprises) are disseminated by the CBN. - It is publicly known that all monthly data generated by SIGFA and its subsystems are reported to the MFPC and the National Assembly and then after 20 to 30 days to the CBN; after the CBN receives the information, quarterly data are released to the public on the Internet. - The MFPC’s website clearly identifies data generated by SIGFA and provides a channel “Citizen’s Popular Questions” (Consulta Popular Ciudadana) with a requirement to answer questions within 48 hours. ### Advance notice and metadata - The methodology and procedures followed by SIGFA have been publicly announced from the beginning of the Project. - The CBN reclassified fiscal data using GFSM 2001 categories in 2004 and published metadata in printed form and on the Internet describing category content. ### Ethical standards - Law of Civil Service of 2004 governs MFPC staff behavior. - No formal code of conduct for GFS compilers in the MFPC, except a general disposition in the By-Laws for Personnel, Part 3, number IX, on guarding use of information (debido sigilo). - Laws of agencies under MFPC contribute to fortify ethical standards. ### Concepts, definitions, and scope - Concepts and definitions used by the MFPC and CBN are generally consistent with GFSM 1986. - There is no plan yet to implement GFSM 2001, though CBN reclassified data in 2004 using GFSM 2001 categories and disseminates data in this new presentation. - Fiscal statistics disseminated by the MFPC cover the budgetary operations only; MFPC data include ministries, decentralized agencies under central government direction, and extra budgetary agencies. - The general budget includes information about Nicaraguan Institute of Social Security (NISS), autonomous agencies, and nonfinancial corporations producing utility services, but MFPC does not receive execution information for these entities. - The CBN compiles data for the “restricted nonfinancial public sector” comprising the budgetary central government, the NISS, the Municipality of Managua (Alcaldía de Managua), and two nonfinancial public corporations. - Coverage is incomplete to determine consolidated central government; missing operations of various autonomous agencies and decentralized entities that do not receive resources from the budget. - Coverage of municipalities is incomplete, precluding compilation of general government; operations of several important nonfinancial public corporations are missing. - Domestic debt data include intergovernmental debt to the NISS. - There are no fiscal statistics on consolidated central government or complete local governments; general government data are not compiled. *Source: IMF Data Quality Assessment, Nicaragua — excerpts from _cr05426 - 3.3 Statistical t* ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization ### _cr05426 - 2.3 Classification/sectorization ### Classification/sectorization systems used - Fiscal statistics lack presentation for consolidated central government and general government; no fiscal statistics on the operations of consolidated central government, complete local governments, and therefore, there is a lack of coverage of data covering the general government. - CBN fiscal data are classified according to GFSM 2001. - MFPC is still using the analytical framework and classifications of the GFSM 1986. - Under the CBN presentation the summarized operations of the nonfinancial public sector are classified as follows: - 1. Revenue - Taxes - Social contributions - Other revenue - 2. Expenditure - Employee remuneration - Purchases of goods and services - Interest - Current and capital transfers - Social benefits - Other expenditure - 3. Net operating balance - 4. Net acquisition of nonfinancial assets - 5. Cash surplus or deficit before grants (3–4) - 6. External grants - 7. Cash surplus or deficit after grants (5–6) - 8. Net domestic financing - Of which: CBN - 9. Net external financing - Revenue from privatization - Memorandum item: - Current savings ### Basis for recording - Market prices are used to value flows and stocks; flows are valued at market prices for each transaction and statistical data are compiled and published in national currency (córdobas). - Transactions denominated in dollars or other currencies are converted to national currency (córdobas) at the exchange rate in effect at the time of the transactions. - Nominal value is used for debt stocks in accordance with GFSM 1986. - Recording basis: - Budgetary central government expenditure is recorded partly on a cash basis and partly on an accrual basis. - Expenditures recorded on an accrual basis include purchases of goods and services, and wages and salaries appropriated for the month of November each year. - The CBN’s rest-of-public-sector operations are recorded on a cash basis. - Grossing/netting: MFPC and CBN present flow data on a gross basis, except for corrective transactions and net data for the operations on financial assets and liabilities in the compilation of financing. ### Accuracy and reliability — Source data and compilation practices - Source systems: - MFPC flow data for the budgetary central government (BCG) are generated by SIGFA for GFS aggregates and detail. - BCG data are supplemented with flow data for domestic and foreign financing reported by the CBN. - Financing data are based on CBN accounting records regarding its own operations with the BCG, and data reported by the GDPC on domestic and foreign debt operations. - For the rest of the restricted nonfinancial public sector, the CBN collects cash-basis data from NISS, ALMA (Managua Municipality), and two relevant nonfinancial public corporations. - The CBN does not use financial statements and balance sheets of the NISS or nonfinancial public enterprises to compile their flow accounts. - Alignment with standards: - Classification codes used by SIGFA are in line with GFSM 1986; valuation practices are in line with GFSM 1986. - Timeliness of source data: - SIGFA compiles monthly, quarterly, and annual data for the BCG with a lag of less than 30 days. - The CBN collects monthly information for institutions in the rest of the restricted nonfinancial public sector within 20 days, though some institutional delays may occur. - The CBN publishes fiscal data within five weeks after the reference month. - Assessment and validation: - SIGFA regularly assesses data compiled by the system and subsystems to compile new reports or modify existing ones. - CBN compilers assess and analyze rest-of-public-sector data monthly; validation and cross checking processes are in place. - Statistical techniques: - SIGFA and CBN procedures are in line with GFSM 1986. - CBN validates arithmetic accuracy of data received for restricted nonfinancial public sector institutions. - Domestic debt is valued at nominal value; external debt flows are valued in national currency at the exchange rate of the date of the transaction; remaining maturity balance is valued at the end of period exchange rate. - Cross-validation and discrepancy handling: - Revenue directorates (GDI and GDA) data are used to validate fiscal revenue generated by SIGFA. - CBN validates government transfers received against SIGFA data for individual institutions. - NISS data on interest and amortization provided by the Treasury are compared with MFPC data. - MFPC validates changes in government debt stocks with financing data in coordination with the CBN. - Statistical discrepancies found in crosschecks are revised in source data and adjusted in statistics. - Compiled data are checked horizontally and vertically for internal consistency by both MFPC and CBN. - CBN crosschecks foreign loans received and grants with creditors and, when possible, a directory of donors. - Revisions: - MFPC reviews and researches discrepancies and revises data when errors are detected, but no systematic revision studies are undertaken in the MFPC. - CBN revisions do not follow a regular pattern; sources of error are examined to improve compilation practices. ### Serviceability — Periodicity, timeliness, and consistency - Periodicity: - Flow data compiled by MFPC and CBN meet GDDS dissemination recommendations: monthly, quarterly, and annual compilation. - Debt data (domestic and foreign) are compiled by MFPC on a monthly basis. - Timeliness (public dissemination delays): - MFPC quarterly data released with a delay of about 20-30 days. - CBN timelines: 60 days for monthly data, 90 days for quarterly data, and four to five months for annual data. - Quarterly debt data are disseminated to the public with a delay of about three to four months. - Internal consistency: - Statistics are checked arithmetically, horizontally and vertically, in both MFPC and CBN. - Annual data are obtained as the sum of quarterly data; corrections to annual figures are adjusted in the last month or last quarter to keep sub-annual data consistent. - Aggregates in summary tables are checked with sums of categories in detailed tables. - Chronological consistency: - MFPC time series for about 10 years are available. - CBN time series are available from 1987 through 2004. - Reconciliation with other frameworks: - Monetary statistics are not consistent with fiscal data due to incomplete coverage of the nonfinancial public sector and differences in recording criteria (government expenditure partly on an accrual basis; monetary statistics cover all nonfinancial public sector units and are recorded on an accrual basis). - Primary intermediate data sources could be largely reconciled. - Revision policy and practice: - Revisions do not follow a regular pattern in MFPC or CBN. - When data are revised in MFPC, evaluation comments are included if differences are deemed important. - CBN revises when annual data are compiled or before publication of final data; compilers review earlier years if errors or omissions are found. - Preliminary and/or revised data are identified through footnotes in statistical tables. - Studies and analyses of revisions are not made public by MFPC or CBN. ### Accessibility — Dissemination, metadata, and user support - Presentation and formats: - MFPC disseminates fiscal data in a format that conforms to GFSM 1986 components and classifications; MFPC supplements data with detailed tables, graphic presentations, and evaluation comments. - CBN data are classified according to GFSM 2001 and CBN supplements publications with detailed tables and metadata. - Dissemination media and availability: - MFPC publishes quarterly reports in hard copy with the same breakdown as on the ministry website; users can find quarterly data from 2000 onwards. - CBN publishes data through Economic Indicators, quarterly bulletins, annual reports and on the CBN website. - Publication schedules: - MFPC disseminates data to the public on a quarterly basis in accordance with the legal mandate in the Budget Law. - CBN does not have a preannounced schedule for publication. - Both MFPC and CBN release fiscal data to all users simultaneously. - Unpublished data: - Unpublished data with longer time series are available upon request from both MFPC and CBN. - MFPC website gives the electronic address to make requests: webmaster@mhcp.gob.ni (no address of the GFS compiler provided). - Metadata and documentation: - MFPC has published procedures manuals for budget processes and SIGFA procedures; manuals are not user friendly and intended for ministry staff. - CBN has recently published detailed metadata in hard print and on the Bank’s website. - MFPC publications include detailed information not adapted to the needs of the public and do not alert users to more complete coverage data published by the CBN. - CBN’s detailed information is designed to meet the needs of all users. - User assistance and catalogs: - Both MFPC and CBN provide contact information or electronic addresses for user support. - MFPC has no catalog of publications; ministry websites include links to available documents. - CBN publishes a catalog of publications that is updated frequently. *Source: _cr05426 - 2.3 Classification/sectorization (Nicaragua), as provided in the supplied IMF content.* ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization ### _cr05426 - 2.3 Classification/sectorization ### Classification and sectorization — fiscal statistics - Fiscal statistics lack presentation of data for consolidated central government and general government. - CBN fiscal data are classified according to the GFSM 2001. - No data are available for consolidated central government, general government, and nonfinancial public sector with incomplete coverage of nonfinancial public corporations. ### Basis for recording - Budgetary central government expenditure is recorded partly on a cash basis and partly on an accrual basis. - CBN rest of public sector operations are recorded on a cash basis. ### Accuracy and reliability — revisions and validation - The MFPC reviews and analyses discrepancies when errors are detected and data are revised accordingly. - No revision studies are undertaken in a systematic way. - The CBN makes revisions with no predetermined pattern. - Revisions do not follow a regular pattern in the MFPC or CBN. Revision takes place in the CBN when annual data are compiled or before publication of final data. ### Serviceability — consistency and timeliness - MFPC budgetary data are used as an intermediate product in other data sources. - Monetary statistics are not consistent with fiscal data due to incomplete coverage of the nonfinancial public sector and differences in recording bases. - Government expenditure is recorded partly on an accrual basis; monetary statistics cover all nonfinancial public sector units and data are recorded on an accrual basis. - Primary intermediate data sources could be largely reconciled. - Periodicity and timeliness: assessed (practice observed). ### Accessibility and metadata - The MFPC has published procedures manuals for the budget process and SIGFA procedures; these manuals are written for ministry employees and not user-friendly. - The CBN has recently included detailed metadata at the time the classifications according with GFSM 2001 were introduced and disseminated. - The MFPC includes detailed information not adapted to the needs of the public; the publications contain more detail than international standards. - The CBN detailed data are designed to meet the needs of all users. - Assistance to users: assessed (practice observed). ### Monetary statistics — legal and institutional environment - Legal framework sources cited: Political Constitution of Nicaragua (Articles 99, 131), Organic Law of the CBN (Law No. 317), Law of the Superintendency of Banks and Other Financial Institutions (Law No. 316), Law of Banks, Nonbank Financial Institutions and Financial Groups (Law No. 314), and other applicable laws and regulations. - The CBN was created by the Constitution of 1950 through legislative decree No. 525 on August 28, 1960 and began operations on January 1, 1961. - The CBN’s legal framework was modernized in 1999 as reflected in its Organic Law (CBN Law). - Articles of the CBN Law cited for statistical functions: Article 60, Article 61, Article 31. - SBOFI has legal authority under Law No. 316; financial institutions are required by Law No. 314 to report to the SBOFI. ### Data sharing, confidentiality, and reporting mandates - The CBN uses an automated “Unified Database” (UDB) updated daily with accounting information of the central bank balance; direct access to the UDB is limited to a few authorized MPD staff. - SBOFI receives weekly and monthly information from financial institutions and forwards monthly data to the Economic Studies Department of the CBN in electronic format. - Confidentiality: Article 60 stipulates use of information solely for statistical purposes; Article 61 requires staff confidentiality. CBN By-Laws Articles 10 (e), 56, and 77 (j) and (i) establish penalties for disclosure. - There are no computer programs especially designed to prevent dissemination of confidential data; access to individual data and electronic databases is restricted to authorized personnel. - Legal provisions require reporting by government and municipal offices and banks; Article 61 contemplates fines of 1,000 to 10,000 córdobas for each instance of noncompliance, which shall be credited to the General Revenue Directorate at the request of the Central Bank. In practice, the CBN does not levy fines for nonreporting. - In 2002, the SBOFI issued an official mandate requiring all deposit-taking institutions to prepare and submit a weekly and monthly Sectorization Report; this regulation became effective in September 2002 and includes provisions for sanctions. The CBN prepared instructions to facilitate preparation of the Sectorization Report. ### Resources, systems, and staffing for monetary statistics - Monetary statistics are prepared by the MPD of the CBN, which has 11 staff, six of whom spend a considerable part of their time on daily, weekly, and monthly monetary statistics. - It is estimated that an average of six months experience is required to acquire good knowledge of concepts and established practices. - There is minimum staff turnover in the MPD as 60 percent have been in their positions for more than 10 years. - Staff resources for compiling monetary statistics are broadly adequate to carry out the current work program. - Training: CBN supports participation in IMF, CAMC, and CEMLA courses; there is no internal training program offered by the CBN for staff technical development. - Technical resources: improvements since 2003; all staff have personal computers and standard software connected to the CBN network. Staff use Excel, Word, PowerPoint in a Windows environment. All staff have access to the CBN Intranet but only two have access to the Internet. - Compilation system: an electronic system developed in a Windows environment in late 2000 with modules for the CBN and ODCs; access is limited to a few key staff members. - Physical facilities are less than adequate; a remodeling project is under way. - Financial resources are broadly adequate; the budget is reviewed annually and required appropriations are usually granted. - As of 2004, a Plan Estratégico del Banco Central de Nicaragua has been prepared consistent with approved budgets. A strategic plan for 2005 has been recently drafted and provides for financing to adopt internationally accepted practices and methodologies. - A strategic plan for the CBN for 2005 calls for continuing work on adoption of the MFSM. ### Quality management and relevance - The CBN recognizes the importance of data quality; quality assessment is embodied in the CBN Law and By-Laws and organizational structure. - Quality-control practices include: (1) assessment by CBN employees who compile statistics and prepare periodic reports; (2) participation in methodology and compilation training programs abroad; (3) oversight by the Internal Auditor (Article 29) and annual external audit. - The MPD has procedures for routine checks of raw data inputted into the electronic system, though these procedures are not reviewed regularly to improve them. - The MPD does not verify that data-reporting practices followed by banks conform to prescribed guidelines for the Sectorization Report. - Relevance: the CBN does not have a proactive policy of regularly consulting users; feedback is obtained primarily through responses to specific data requests and occasional conferences. - CBN participation in IMF, CAMC, and CEMLA seminars helps identify emerging data requirements. - The CBN has pursued adoption of the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual’s (MFSM) methodology and participation in the GDDS. - Preparations for Nicaragua’s formal participation in the GDDS are at an advanced stage; Nicaragua has committed to use the GDDS as a framework, nominated a national GDDS coordinator, and prepared draft metadata. - After the mission visit, Nicaragua became a participant country in the GDDS on February 22, 2005. *Source: _cr05426 - 2.3 Classification/sectorization (IMF mission report content provided).* ### 1. Assurances of integrity ### 1. Assurances of integrity ### 1.1 Professionalism - Statistics are produced on an impartial basis - No law specifically stipulates that terms and conditions for producing statistics must follow principles of professional independence. - Conditions and provisions governing the CBN as stipulated in Law 317 (Articles 1, 60) are deemed adequate to ensure its technical independence and the autonomy of its staff. - The CBN’s Board of Directors and management recognize professionalism and independence in compiling data, including monetary statistics, as crucial to credibility. - Professional and academic skills, as well as performance on placing tests, are prerequisites for hiring personnel; Chapter 2 of the CBN By-Laws stipulates employment requirements. - Considerations for advancement depend on productivity, efficiency, and professionalism. - The CBN encourages staff research projects, participation in international seminars and courses on monetary statistics, post-graduate studies, and meetings with other central banks and international organizations. - A research unit will be set up within the Gerencia de Estudios Económicos in the near future. - Significant improvements have been effected in recent years with technical assistance from the IMF and participation in a joint IMF-CAMC seminar in 2004. - Choices of sources and statistical techniques are informed solely by statistical considerations - Sources, methods, and statistical techniques for compiling monetary statistics are based on statistical considerations (e.g., coverage, timeliness, and reliability). - Source data used (balance sheets of the CBN and ODCs reports) meet, to a large extent, statistical requirements for decision-making and publication. - Definitions and statistical techniques are based on methodological considerations (e.g., the MFSM). - Current methodology for ODCs is not entirely consistent with MFSM recommendations (e.g., coverage and sectorization); plans for improvement have been formulated within the context of the GDDS. - The appropriate statistical entity is entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics - Generally no erroneous interpretation or misuse of monetary statistics by data users. - When significant errors in interpretation occur in the media, the CBN issues an official response with clarifications. - Methodological notes available on the CBN’s website help avoid misinterpretations about data published in Indicadores Económicos. - The CBN has organized seminars with the media in the past to discuss appropriate interpretation and use of economic and financial indicators. ### 1.2 Transparency - Terms and conditions under which statistics are collected, processed, and disseminated are available to the public - The CBN Law (No. 317), the Law of the Superintendence of Banks and Other Financial Institutions (Law No. 316), the Law of Banks, Nonbank Financial Institutions and Financial Groups (Law No. 314) can be found on the CBN’s website (gtto://www.bcn.gob.ni). These provide broad terms and conditions under which statistics are collected and compiled, but contain reference to data dissemination. - CBN By-Laws and other internal documents (e.g., strategy plan) covering aspects related to statistical compilation (safeguards for confidentiality, professionalism) are for internal use only. The CBN By-Laws are available on the CBN’s Intranet site. - Internal governmental access to statistics prior to their release is publicly identified - No government officials outside the CBN have access to monetary statistics before public release. - Once compilation is complete and before dissemination on the CBN’s website, outputs are made available to the Gerente de Estudios Económicos of the CBN. - An official representative of a government agency may have prerelease access subject to submission of a formal request to the Gerente de Estudios Económicos. - The public is not informed of this practice at present. - Products of statistical agencies/units are clearly identified as such - Publications indicate the CBN is responsible for its statistical products and identify the department that prepares the information (Gerencia de Estudios Económicos). - All statistical products have the CBN logo. - When statistics are reproduced in other documents or newspapers, the CBN is generally identified as the source. - Advance notice is given of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques - In general, there is no advance notice of changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques used to prepare monetary statistics. - Changes are announced and explained when new data are disseminated on the CBN’s website (http://www.bcn.gob.ni). - The CBN intends to update methodological notes on monetary statistics regularly now that they are on the website. ### 1.3 Ethical standards - Guidelines for staff behavior are in place and are well known to the staff - The CBN Law (Article 19) provides for the Board of Directors to issue internal By-Laws. - The CBN’s By-Laws (chapter 8) require staff to carry out responsibilities with due diligence and loyalty, dedicating their best moral, intellectual, and physical efforts. - By-Laws establish regulations and sanctions for employees who misuse information to which they have access. - By-Laws are made known to all new CBN employees and are available on the CBN’s Intranet (for internal use only). - Employees are routinely reminded to observe rules and regulations. ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - The overall structure follows internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices - The overall structure of monetary statistics generally follows internationally accepted standards, guidelines, and good practices. - In recent years, the CBN has made great efforts to adopt the IMF’s MFSM methodology. - An improved presentation for monetary statistics, with monthly data since December 2001, was disseminated via the Internet in May 2004 in the CBN’s Economic Indicators [Indicadores Económicos], along with detailed methodological notes. - The analytical framework for the Central Bank Survey (CBS) and the Depository Corporations Survey (DCS) follows in general the MFSM methodology. - The DCS is a consolidation of sectoral balances of the CBN and ODCs (commercial banks and finance companies) and the sectoral balance of the Financiera Nicaragüense de Inversiones (Nicaraguan Investment Fund (FNI)). The FNI is not a deposit-taking institution but is included in the national concept of DCS. - Surveys and underlying sectoral balance sheets reflect the residency criterion, sectorization of institutional units, and classification of financial instruments on a gross basis as recommended in the MFSM. - Main aggregates in the DCS include net foreign assets, net domestic credit (to general government, nonfinancial public enterprises, private sector, other sectors and other items net), and monetary liabilities (currency outside banks, transferable deposits, other liabilities with the private sector, and securities issued by the CBN and held by residents). - The CBN publishes measures of broad money (M1, M2 and M3) as series of broader monetary aggregates (M1a, M2a, and M3a). The MFSM does not prescribe a uniform definition for this indicator. - Despite improvements introduced in 2004, current presentation does not fully conform to the MFSM due to incomplete institutional coverage, partial sectorization of institutional units in ODC accounts, and partial application of accrual-based recording. ### 2.2 Scope - The scope is broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices - The financial system of Nicaragua includes: (1) the Central Bank (CBN), (2) Other Depository Corporations (ODCs) comprising six commercial banks, three finance companies, and a large number of credit and savings cooperatives; and (3) Other Financial Corporations comprising the FNI, insurance companies, pension funds, and various financial auxiliaries. - At present the CBN presents four surveys in Indicadores Económicos: (1) Central Bank Survey, (2) ODCs comprising commercial banks and finance companies, (3) the Nicaraguan Investment Fund (FNI), and (4) the Monetary Survey of the National Financial System (MSNFS), a (partial) Financial Corporations Survey. The MSNFS is a consolidation of sectoral balances of the CBN, ODCs, and FNI and is considered a DCS for this exercise. - The DCS consolidates accounts of resident financial corporations and quasi corporations mainly engaged in financial intermediation and issuing liabilities included in national definitions of broad money; data cover head offices and all domestic branches. - Incomplete institutional coverage is a problem: some deposit-taking corporations (credit and savings cooperatives and offshore banks) are excluded from ODC subsector statistics. - It is estimated that deposits with credit and savings cooperatives account for about 15 percent of total bank deposits. - Offshore banks accept deposits of residents but their transactions are not considered very significant. - Data on other financial corporations—insurance companies, pension funds, and various financial auxiliaries (warehouse deposits, stockbrokers, exchange houses, etc.)—need compiling to produce a broader Financial Corporations Survey. - Work is underway to establish data reporting by credit and savings cooperatives and to obtain data from insurance companies, pension funds, and the stock exchange to produce a Financial Corporations Survey. - Article 60 of the CBN Law empowers the CBN to request information from any sources for statistical purposes. The SBOFI receives monthly information from insurance companies. - It is envisaged that pension funds will start operating in 2005 under the supervision of an entity other than the SBOFI. ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - Classification/sectorization systems used are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices - The sectoral classification adopted in the MFSM is based on the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA) distinguishing residents and nonresidents and classifying resident units into financial corporations, nonfinancial corporations, general government, households, and nonprofit institutions serving households. - The CBN is implementing a new system of monetary accounts largely based on MFSM sectorization and classification of financial instruments. - The CBN prepared a listing of institutions and sectorized them into four sectors: (1) general government, (2) nonfinancial public enterprises, (3) financial corporations, and (4) households. This document is used by the MPD and distributed to ODCs as a guide for SBOFI sectorization reports. - For the central bank and ODCs, assets and liabilities are classified according to the institutional sector of counterparts: assets by debtor sectors and liabilities by creditor sector. - Sectoral balance sheets of the CBN and ODCs reflect the residency criterion; application has improved the quality of monetary statistics. - Lack of proper sectorization due to insufficient detail in ODC source data, mainly for claims and deposits of the nonfinancial public sector (NFPS), detracts from the usefulness of monetary statistics to assess net credit to central government and the rest of the NFPS. - The complexity of the CBN chart of accounts makes it difficult to derive classification of instruments and sectors; the DPM is improving its database with a computerized system linking accounting balances to classification groups of the CBN sectoral balance. - Classification of financial instruments in sectoral balance sheets and surveys is broadly consistent with recommendations, based on liquidity and legal characteristics. - Improvements in instrument classification resulted in more accurate monetary and credit aggregates; example: foreign currency reserve deposits were reclassified under “monetary reserves,” improving calculation of foreign assets, international reserves, and the monetary base. - The CBN does not hold monetary gold nor conduct swap operations or repurchase agreements (repos). ### 2.4 Basis for recording - Market prices are used to value flows and stocks - MFSM recommends valuation of financial assets and liabilities at market prices or market-price equivalents, with loans valued at creditors’ outstanding claims (book value: outstanding principal plus accrued interest). - Financial instruments denominated in foreign currency should be converted at market exchange rate on the balance sheet date; holding gains and losses should be recorded separately in a revaluation account. - CBN accounts are compiled broadly in accordance with MFSM valuation principles: financial transactions recorded at occurrence date and market prices; stocks valued at market prices if possible, otherwise at purchasing price (as for CBN securities). - Foreign currency transactions are converted to national currency at the exchange rate prevailing on the transaction date; outstanding stocks are adjusted for exchange rate changes based on end-of-period exchange rates with valuation gains/losses included in profit/loss accounts. - Assets and liabilities denominated in U.S. dollars are converted using exchange rates published by the CBN daily; assets and liabilities in other currencies use rates published in REUTERS. - Beginning with data for December 2001 when sectoral balances started being generated, valuation adjustments (including holding gains and losses for instruments) are presented in sectoral balance sheets. - Foreign currency positions of commercial banks are valued at end-of-period exchange rates according to formal SBOFI instructions. Foreign-currency positions of the FNI are valued at end-of-month exchange rates. - Recording is done on an accrual basis - MFSM accrual principles specify interest accruing be incorporated into outstanding amount of the financial asset/liability; revenues and expenditures recorded on accrual basis. - The principle of accrual accounting is not fully applied in compiling monetary statistics. - Securities issued by the CBN are recorded under liabilities at face value without deducting the discount. - Interest is recorded under liabilities in a single event even though accrual period has not elapsed; it is adjusted to accrual basis at the end of the month. - A record for accrued interest is kept through the open market operations system (OMAS), which has made provision for regular calculation of accrued interest only since September 2003. - Daily and weekly data are not adjusted to accrual basis. - For monthly data, the CBN’s Notas Metodológicas (page 24) note that outstanding amount for securities issued by the CBN reflects purchase price plus accrued interest, adjusted for exchange rate valuation changes. - Grossing/netting procedures are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices - The MFSM and 1993 SNA principle that data be collected and compiled on a gross basis is broadly applied. - Assets and liabilities of CBN accounts are compiled on a gross basis and aggregated without consolidating interbank positions. - ODC data are reported on a gross basis in monthly returns but netted out and presented in consolidated form in surveys; consolidation eliminates stocks and flows between institutional units within a subsector. - The DCS is obtained by canceling out outstanding claims and liabilities between the central bank and ODCs while preserving presentation of other outstanding claims and liabilities. - In surveys (e.g., DCS), “Net credit to central government” is not separately identified as recommended in the MFSM. *Source: _cr05426 - 1. Assurances of integrity* ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### Source data - Main sources for monetary financial statistics: - CBN’s daily balance sheet prepared by the CBN ́s Accounting Department. - Monthly balance (Balance General) and sectorization matrix of commercial banks and finance companies that the SBOFI sends to the CBN’s Finance Department on a monthly basis. - Monthly ODC data are contained in an electronic file with account validations; the data are considered final. - The CBN balance sheet is derived from accounting records processed according to political and accounting rules through a general plan of accounts; the CBN chart of accounts includes many individualized levels of transactors. - A database (Base Unica de Datos, BUD) has been developed and implemented to facilitate classification and sectorization of instruments on the CBN balance sheet based on a predetermined codification of accounts. - ODC reporting: - Each commercial bank and finance company send their accounting reports (Balance General) to the SBOFI electronically. - Since early 2002, ODCs have supplied to the SBOFI a Sectorization Matrix with monthly information on investments, credit and deposits disaggregated by instruments and sectors. - The SBOFI reviews information and forwards it electronically to the CBN. - Footnote: The SBOFI also reports daily data on the ODCs to the CBN; the daily reports are preliminary and are sent by e-mail. The daily CBN and ODC data are called Indicadores de coyuntura and are published on the CBN’s website. The monthly data are published in Indicadores económicos on the CBN’s website and in publications and are used for monitoring purposes. ### Source data: conformity with definitions, scope, classifications, valuation, and recording - Residency criterion, classification of instruments, and identification of institutional sectors are in broad compliance with MFSM recommendations. - The CBN balance sheet structure and degree of detail largely allow following MFSM sectorization standards despite complexity. - ODCs follow the Manual Unico Contable (MUC), in place since 1995 and revised several times; MUC is generally consistent with international accounting criteria and practices. - Limitations: - ODC data (accounts balance and sectorization matrix) provide key information but lack sufficient detail for more accurate classification and sectorization fully in line with the MFSM. - Shortcomings in sectorization are evident in some cases. ### Timeliness of source data - Delays in source data are unusual. - CBN Accounting Department prepares accounting data daily and these are available to the DMP the same day. - ODCs are required by law to send reports to the SBOFI on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. - The SBOFI aggregates these data and sends them to the CBN electronically. - The monthly balance is received with a 20-25 day lag and the matrix two to three days later (the matrix is provided on a monthly basis only). ### Assessment of source data and validation practices - CBN internal accounts are validated with electronic built-in checks in the BUD; ongoing communication between the Accounting Department and the DPM on classification of new accounts. - Accuracy of commercial bank and finance company data is routinely reviewed for internal consistency and consistency between general balance aggregates and the sectorization report; inconsistencies and out-of-value trends are discussed with the SBOFI. - Ongoing contact between the CBN and SBOFI to resolve data queries; direct contact with reporting institutions is limited. - The database is reviewed every quarter to ensure capability to generate high-quality and timely data. - Source data are reviewed in the context of revisions, e.g., introduction of revised monetary statistics in May 2004. ### Statistical techniques and data processing - Sectoral balances for the CBN and the ODCs are produced in separate data modules and then linked electronically to produce the DCS. - The CBN uses largely automated statistical techniques: - CBN balance sheet is prepared daily and data are captured on BUD based on predetermined codification. - BUD is used to generate monetary statistics for the CBN (sectoral balance sheet and central bank survey) and to compile short-term indicators. - ODC data processing: - CBN filters general balance information using a computerized system validating each reporting ODC. - Monthly sectorization matrix data are captured manually on an Excel spreadsheet and compared with totals reported in the general balance. - After processing, data from the general balance and the sectorization matrix are posted (cut and paste) to another database as input for the ODC sectoral balance sheet and the DCS. - Use of manual techniques could lead to statistical errors. ### Other statistical procedures and valuation - Given accounting basis of source data, statistical adjustments or estimates are unusual for the central bank balance sheet and monetary aggregates. - Sectoral balance sheet of commercial banks and finance companies encompasses all intermediaries based on accounting records. - Source data are presented in national currency and include transactions based on conversion of foreign exchange into local currency using the official end-of-month exchange rate published by the CBN. - Currently there are no banks undergoing liquidation. ### Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs - Production follows MFMS two-level presentation: (1) aggregates on balances reported by individual units in sectoral balance sheets; (2) consolidation into surveys. - In general, intermediate results (sectoral balance sheets) are not validated against other sources. - Databases used to generate intermediate data have built-in checks that calculate discrepancies for the relevant period; there are no automatic checks to monitor trends in time series. - Large discrepancies and potential problems in outputs are routinely investigated; the MPD checks statistical products and explains unusually large fluctuations. - For ODCs, checking may include balance sheet checks for data entry errors or cross-checking financial flows with changes in outstanding stocks; when unexplainable variations are noted, the MDP contacts the SBOFI. ### Revision studies and practices - No mechanism in place for routine analysis of revisions; no formal studies available. - Periodic ad-hoc investigations are conducted to evaluate sources of problems (e.g., erroneous sectorization of institutional units) and procedures are implemented to prevent recurrence. - Daily and weekly data are preliminary and monthly data are considered final—revisions are unusual. --- ### 4. Serviceability ### Periodicity and timeliness - Periodicity: - Monthly periodicity meets GDDS recommendations of “monthly.” - Preliminary data for “central bank aggregates” are published daily and weekly. - Timeliness: - Timeliness of monthly monetary statistics is consistent with GDDS recommendations “two to three months.” - The CBN publishes the DCS (“Balance Monetario del Sistema Financiero”) two months after the end of the reference month. - Preliminary daily and weekly central bank aggregates are disseminated with a lag of one to two days and two to three weeks, respectively. ### Consistency - Internal consistency: - Accounting of assets and liabilities between the CNB and the ODCs is generally consistent; recording differences may arise due to operations in transit but are usually reconcilable. - Temporal consistency: - Monthly monetary data disseminated to the public start in December 2001 and are reconcilable since they follow the same methodology (MFMS). - Compilation of the former series (which followed a different methodology) was discontinued after December 2003. - Cross-framework consistency: - Monetary statistics are not always easily reconcilable with other data sources, though some intersectoral cross-checks are performed. - It is possible to reconcile monetary statistics (e.g., net foreign assets) with balance of payments since residency criteria are followed. - The international investment position is not compiled at this time. - Reconciliation difficulties with fiscal data (e.g., net credit to government) arise because of: - Different institutional coverage in fiscal and monetary accounts. - Different criteria used to sectorize the economy for monetary and fiscal compilation. - Accrual recording largely used in monetary statistics versus cash basis in fiscal data for revenues and partial accrual for expenditure. - Institutional coverage in monetary data lacks operations of credit and savings cooperatives and other financial institutions (e.g., insurance companies, pension funds, etc.). ### Revision policy and practice - There is no predetermined, well-established, and transparent revision policy for monetary accounts. - Comparative analyses of preliminary and final data are neither prepared nor published. - Revisions occur occasionally when errors are detected; adequate documentation of revisions is not included in monetary publications. - Preliminary daily and weekly data are identified as such; there is no indication that monthly data are final when first published and any revisions to monthly data are not identified in publications. - No studies or analysis of both the current series (from December 2001) and the former series (1990s to December 2003) have been conducted; adequate documentation on revisions is not made publicly available. --- ### 5. Accessibility ### Data accessibility and presentation - Statistical tables in Indicadores Económicos (also on the CBN website) present CBN, ODCs, and DCS information in a way that facilitates interpretation, though they do not strictly follow MFMS presentation. - Main aggregates in the DCS include net foreign assets, net domestic credit, and monetary liabilities. - Not all MFSM-recommended categories of financial assets are separately identified (e.g., claims on other sectors and net credit to central government are not separately identified). - Presentation of claims to central government on a net basis facilitates analysis of depository corporations’ financing of central government operations. - Some tables in Indicadores Económicos contain erroneous captions (e.g., table titles and column headings), detracting from usefulness. ### Dissemination media, formats, and schedules - Media and formats are adequate, particularly for Internet users; recent and historical data can be consulted on the CBN website. - Statistical information is accompanied by charts. - There are no footnotes on tables linking to methodological notes, which are presented in a separate volume. - The English section is very outdated as compilation of those series has been discontinued and users are not informed about this practice. - There is no preannounced advance release calendar to the general public; the MPD follows an internal production and publication schedule. - Data release simultaneity: - Daily, weekly and monthly monetary statistics are disseminated simultaneously to the public on the CBN website. - Monthly data are also published in Indicadores Económicos, released with a lag of two months. - Daily and weekly data are published at http://www.bcn.gob.ni/estadisticas. ### Nonpublished data and user support - Nonpublished (but nonconfidential) data are made available upon request from the MPD, with approval of senior staff of the Economic Studies Department or management; all requested information is free of charge. - The CBN website has a facility for users to send questions or queries to the CBN. ### Metadata accessibility and documentation - The CBN has prepared and published Notas Metodológicas on the monthly monetary statistics introduced in Indicadores Económicos in May 2004 with data from December 2001. - Notas Metodológicas is available on the CBN’s website and on hard copy; it explains main concepts and definitions used, deviations from MFSM key concepts and definitions, and differences between current and former datasets. - Levels of detail in Notas Metodológicas do not fully satisfy needs of specialized users; supporting working papers on methodology are not published. ### Assistance to users and publication catalogs - Contact points: - Internal users at the CBN get support from compilers at the MPD. - External users may send queries through the CBN website (webmaster@bcn.gob.ni) or contact the CBN directly. - CBN publications identify the Economic Studies Department (Gerencia de Estudios Económicos) as the compiling department; some publications provide fax, Internet, and postal addresses. - Notas Metodológicas provides the name of a contact person for monetary statistics. - Catalogs: - The CBN’s website contains daily, weekly, and monthly monetary accounts and a complete list of publications and other documents; a complete list is also available at the CBN Library. *Source: _cr05426 - 3. Accuracy and reliability* ### 0. Prerequisites of quality 0.1 Legal and institutional environment ### _cr05426 - 0. Prerequisites of quality 0.1 Legal and institutional environment ### 0. Prerequisites of quality (Monetary Statistics — summary observations) - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment - The CBN Law does not specify clearly the role of the CBN in the collection, compilation, and dissemination of monetary statistics. - 0.2 Resources - Lack of internal training programs on methodologies and limited access to more advanced facilities (equipment, software, Internet, etc.). - 0.3 Relevance - Formal consultations with data users are not conducted. - 0.4 Other quality management - Processes and routines for quality control are not reviewed regularly for improvement. ### 1. Assurances of integrity (Monetary Statistics) - 1.1 Professionalism: X - 1.2 Transparency - Major changes in methodology are not announced in advance. - Public is not informed that some government agencies may have prior access to data before its release. - 1.3 Ethical standards: X ### 2. Methodological soundness (Monetary Statistics) - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: X - 2.2 Scope - Credit and savings cooperatives are not included in the ODCS and in the DCS. - 2.3 Classification/sectorization - Current classification/sectorization of accounts does not facilitate assessment of net credit to central government. - 2.4 Basis for recording - Accrual accounting is not fully applied. - CBN securities are valued at purchase price rather than market price. ### 3. Accuracy and reliability (Monetary Statistics) - 3.1 Source data - Source data for the ODCs lack sufficient detail to permit a more accurate classification and sectorization of accounts in line with the MFSM. - 3.2 Assessment of source data: X - 3.3 Statistical techniques - Data compilation for the ODCs relies on automated and manual statistical techniques. - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - Intermediate data (sectoral balance sheets and surveys) are subject to internal automated checks, but they are not routinely validated against other information. - 3.5 Revision studies - Revision studies are not conducted on a regular basis. ### 4. Serviceability (Monetary Statistics) - 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness: X - 4.2 Consistency - Data are reconcilable with balance of payments statistics, but not entirely with fiscal data mainly due to differences in institutional coverage, basis for recording, and sectorization. - 4.3 Revision policy and practice - Revision policy is not documented or disseminated. ### 5. Accessibility (Monetary Statistics) - 5.1 Data accessibility - All categories of financial assets recommended in the MFSM are not presented in the data. - There is no advance release calendar. - 5.2 Metadata accessibility - Methodological notes do not satisfy the needs of specialized users. - Supporting working papers on methodology are not published. - 5.3 Assistance to users: X *Source: Table 5. Nicaragua: Data Quality Assessment Framework (July 2003): Summary of Results for Monetary Statistics (Compiling Agency: Central Bank of Nicaragua).* --- ### Balance of Payments Statistics (VI) ### 0. Prerequisites of quality (Balance of Payments Statistics) - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment - 0.1.1 Responsibility for collecting, processing, and disseminating statistics - Based on the Law of the Central Bank of Nicaragua (CBN) (No. 317, 03/30/01), the Department of External Programming (DEP) of the CBN is in charge of compiling and disseminating the balance of payments statistics. - Article 60: offices/units of Central Government and municipal governments and governmental credit institutions are obliged to submit reports requested by the Central Bank; banks and any physical or juridical person with residence or domicile in Nicaraguan territory are obligated to supply the Central Bank with statistical information requested by it. This information must be used solely and exclusively for the purpose of macroeconomic statistics and analysis. - The Law of the CBN does not mention the mandate to compile and disseminate balance of payments statistics and no treatment is established for nonresponse cases. - 0.1.2 Data sharing and coordination among data-producing agencies - The CBN has established a close relationship with other public institutions and interagency working groups for external trade, external transfers, tourism, and foreign direct investment transactions. - The most relevant interagency working group is the Technical and Permanent Interinstitutional Commission integrated with the CBN, National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (NISC), Directorate of Customs Services (DCS), Ministry of Industry Development and Commerce and National Commission of Free Zones. - Problems remain with timeliness of source data for external transfers and with coverage of private sector transactions. - Mechanisms do not consider sanctions, deadlines, and nonresponse treatment. - Difficulties accessing specific banking-sector transactions from the Superintendence of Banks and Other Financial Institutions (e.g., financial services). - 0.1.3 Confidentiality and use of individual reporters’ data - Data gathered are completely confidential and used solely for statistical purposes in aggregated form. - Article 60: information to be used solely for statistical purposes and macroeconomic analysis. - Access to individual data restricted to staff who require it; measures restrict access to facilities and the balance of payments database. - Article 61: all employees required to keep confidential all information, documents, and transactions encountered in duties. - Article 10 (e) of the CBN By-Laws: disclosure of confidential information is a cause to terminate employment. - Article 56: confidentiality of all electronic information available to the staff. - Article 77 (j) and (i): violation of bank secrecy or confidentiality is punished without prejudice to punitive sanctions under ordinary criminal law. - 0.1.4 Statistical reporting ensured through legal mandate and/or measures to encourage response - Public and private institutions are required by law to report to the CBN for statistical purposes. - Sanctions exist but are in national currency without periodic readjustment clause and do not define treatment of nonresponse (fine of 1,000 to 10,000 córdobas for each instance, credited to the General Revenue Directorate at CBN request). - In practice, the CBN does not levy fines for nonreporting. - DEP uses voluntary encouragement mechanisms: technical support to respondents, direct interviews, phone, or email; stresses importance of quality, reliable, and timely information. - Cultural reluctance persists among private firms to provide information on financial assets and liabilities with nonresidents. - Legal framework is being reinforced to give the CBN attributions to collect and disseminate macroeconomic data and to conduct surveys of the nonfinancial private sector. - 0.2 Resources - 0.2.1 Staff, facilities, computing resources, financing - DEP’s staff comprises nine officers, including the department head. - Five officers are directly involved in compiling balance of payments statistics. - Two staff work on revision and monitoring of short- and long-term forecasts for the balance of payments; remainder prepare economic situation reports on external sector statistics. - Budgetary restrictions limit new hires; coordination with National Accounts Surveys Office to develop specific balance of payments surveys focused on foreign investment flows. - Three staff responsible for compiling balance of payments statistics have received IMF training in techniques and methods. - Need to upgrade knowledge of best practices in compiling data on private capital flows and methods for forecasting and analyzing external sector policies. - Staff have personal computers, although not all have Internet access. - Software used: Excel, Word, PowerPoint, SPSS, ACCESS, FOXPRO. - A special application was designed to process external trade customs data and migration-form data. - No network access to the Debt Management Financial and Analysis System (DMFAS) and other banking statistics systems in the CBN. - Department's physical facilities are being remodeled to improve office space, equipment, furnishings, lighting, and air-conditioning. - As of 2004, the Annual Work Plan (AWP) prepared consistent with approved budget for each unit. - Work plans for 2005 provide for adequate financing to carry out all program activities. - 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources - CBN’s AWP includes all products and services offered to the public; planning at Manager, Deputy Manager and department level; tracked and evaluated quarterly. - Constant efforts to improve quality and timeliness using internationally-accepted concepts and methodologies. - Implementation of balance of payments statistics under the fifth edition of the IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual (BPM5) guidelines is not yet complete. - Dissemination is done through CBN’s Internet website. - 0.3 Relevance - 0.3.1 Monitoring relevance and practical utility - No formal monitoring procedures for users. - CBN seeks to improve information quality for public; has developed feedback mechanisms including surveys on statistical needs conducted at the CBN library. - Feedback has helped improve and expand economic information disseminated in hard copy and electronic format. - 0.4 Other quality management - 0.4.1 Processes to focus on quality - AWP promotes institutional excellence and high-quality information. - No specific procedures established for examining quality of balance of payments statistics (e.g., external audits). - Where multiple sources exist for the same component, crosschecks are performed and discrepancies investigated (example: workers’ remittances). - Reported data are checked for internal consistency and compared with earlier periods; respondents are contacted when inconsistencies are detected for clarifications and corrections. - Publications indicate whether data are projected, estimated, preliminary, or definitive, but there are no marks for revised data. - 0.4.2 Processes to monitor the statistical program - DEP checks intersectoral consistency of data from respondents and carries out periodic monitoring of response rates, errors, and timelines. - Transactions compiled using surveys as primary sources: workers' remittances, air transport services, communications services, goods procured in port by carriers. - IMF and Central American Monetary Council (CAMC) experts have provided advisory services, improving quality and preparation strategies. - 0.4.3 Quality considerations in planning - Procedures to deal with quality issues are included in the AWP (e.g., customs data reviewed monthly to eliminate double counting and to exclude transactions of enterprises in Managua’s Free Zone that are recorded separately). ### 1. Assurances of integrity (Balance of Payments Statistics) - 1.1 Professionalism - 1.1.1 Statistics produced on an impartial basis - Legal provisions give the CBN professional independence. - Article 1 of the Law of the CBN: CBN is a decentralized entity of the State with technical and administrative autonomy. - Article 15: President of the Central Bank and members of the Council of Directors must receive clearance from the National Assembly after nomination. - CBN staff encouraged to participate in meetings, seminars, courses, and workshops to improve statistical knowledge. - 1.1.2 Choices of sources and statistical techniques and dissemination decisions - DEP staff have independence in choosing data sources and methodologies based on statistical considerations (coverage, reliability, timeliness). - Survey design takes account of BPM5 recommendations and opinions of external experts. - 1.1.3 Right to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics - DEP monitors media and professional comments; in cases of misinterpretation, DEP reports to senior CBN staff responsible for contacting media for corrections or clarifications. - CBN holds seminars with professional journalists to train them in interpretation of economic and financial indicators. - CBN periodically disseminates reports on its website explaining relevant aspects of published external data. *Source: Balance of Payments Statistics (sections 0 and 1) from the CBN/DEP assessment in the provided PDF content.* ### 1.2 Transparency ### _cr05426 - 1.2 Transparency ### Transparency practices (1.2) - 1.2.1 Terms and conditions - The CBN publishes the balance of payments statistics on its website. - Methodological notes specify the terms and conditions under which the statistics are compiled, as well as the confidential nature of the data. - The Internet site includes the e-mail address of the person responsible for answering inquiries and provides clarifications or additional information on the balance of payments statistics. - 1.2.2 Pre-release access - National authorities do not have access to balance of payments statistics before they are released to the public. - 1.2.3 Product identification - All statistical tables and reports published by the CBN mention the source of the data. - Balance of payments statistics (monthly, quarterly, and annual) are identified with the institutional logo and labeled: “Banco Central de Nicaragua, Gerencia de Estudios Económicos.” - 1.2.4 Advance notice of methodological change - There is a recurring procedure to review the methodological notes each year and to highlight the most important changes to keep users up to date. - This procedure is not formally preannounced to users. ### Ethical standards (1.3) - 1.3.1 Staff behavior guidelines - The CBN’s Internal Staff Regulations, approved by the General Manager and by the staff union, govern and harmonize working relations within the institution, and establish disciplinary guidelines that all staff must observe. - All new employees are familiarized with these regulations, and staff is regularly reminded that they must observe them. - Violation or nonobservance of the ethical standards established in the regulations is punished according to the provisions of the corresponding articles. ### Methodological soundness (2.) - 2.1 Concepts and definitions - The balance of payments statistics register transactions between residents and nonresidents according to the residence criteria defined by the BPM5 and, when possible, conform with guidelines outlined in the BPM5. - The DEP has been improving the transition from BPM4 to BPM5, especially on: goods for processing, goods procured in ports by carriers, distinction of current and capital transfers, and recording reserve assets on a gross basis. - No adjustments are made to goods consumed in Nicaragua after they have been recorded in goods for processing in the balance of payments. - Some valuation adjustments are not in accordance with BPM5. - External assets that are not readily available have been recorded as reserve assets (escrow accounts). - Further implementation needs: Financial Account presentation (Functional and Institutional categories and clear distinction between assets and liabilities), apply accrual principle on external public debt and record reserve assets transactions excluding changes not attributable to transactions, record in the Financial Account a counter entry of goods for processing when goods remain in Nicaragua after the end of the recording period or after imported goods have been processed. - The international investment position statistics (IIP) have not been compiled and disseminated; the DEP has begun to estimate a partial version. - The double-entry system is applied as a basic principle and the net residual is embedded in the capital and financial account. - The overall balance in the national presentation is recorded as a balance item which includes reserves and exceptional financing, similar to the standard presentation according to BPM5. - 2.2 Scope - The statistical records identify the main transactions between residents and nonresidents. - There are no estimates carried out on smuggling. - Industrial activity inside Managua’s Free Zone has recently been recorded as goods for processing in gross terms. - Difficulties in measuring private-sector transactions with nonresidents related to: - (1) services (mainly financial, royalties, insurance, computer, professional, cultural, etc.); - (2) income derived from compensation of border employees and external financial assets (with the exception of currency and deposits, assets obtained from the BIS website); - (3) financial transactions (portfolio investment, trade credits, currency and deposits and other assets and liabilities). - In the current and financial account, banks’ income, debt and trade credits are not recorded. - Most transactions with nonresidents are made through the resident financial system; many operations are implicitly registered as errors and omissions that affect double-entry application. - 2.3 Classification/sectorization - The balance of payments statistics classification and sectorization do not fully comply with BPM5 guidelines. - The CBN publishes four different versions of balance of payments statistics: monthly, quarterly, yearly reports and “macroeconomic statistics for the last 40 years.” - Monthly report Current Account breakdown: - Balance on external trade of goods broken down into general merchandise, goods for processing and goods procured in ports by carriers. - Services presented for credits and debits. - Income classified as credit and debit; debit income entries detail interest with contractual maturities during the period and portion paid. - Current account includes current transfers credit; no data available for current transfers’ debit. - Capital Account records credit transactions; no data available for debit transactions. - Financial Account does not follow functional and institutional categories according to BPM5 guidelines. - Private Capital presentation differs from BPM5 Financial Account: - Monthly: sectors broken down by public and private capital; public capital shows loans (details of principal amortizations) and other net assets; Private Capital distinguishes Net Financial Capital, Net Long Term Loans, and Other External Assets. - Yearly: Private Capital broken down into Net Financial system, Direct Foreign Investment, Portfolio Investment, Transfers to Non Government Organizations, and Other Capital. - In all versions “Other Net Private Capital” includes errors and omissions. - NISC publishes a balance of payments statement for 1990-1999 that does not match CBN data; main discrepancies are on “Current and Private Capital.” NISC should update information on their website monthly. - 2.4 Basis for recording - 2.4.1 Market prices - Balance of payments transactions are generally recorded according to the valuation principle based on market prices as stipulated in BPM5. - Exception: portfolio investment liabilities are recorded according to their face value. - Most transactions are in U.S. dollars; when not, data are converted to dollars using the exchange rate in effect on the date of the transaction (applies to customs documents). - Quotation from BPM5 paragraph 116: “In principle, exports and imports of goods should be recorded when ownership of the goods passes from a resident to a nonresident, or vice versa. In practice a change in ownership is recognized (or is proxied) when the two parties to the transaction record it in their books or accounts....” - Flows of reserve assets are derived from monetary statistics stocks already converted to dollars at the exchange rate prevailing at the end of each period; this method makes it difficult to exclude changes due to prices and cross exchange rates from flows. - 2.4.2 Accrual basis - BPM5 criteria generally followed except interest of public external debt is recorded based on contractual maturity. - Since 2002, imports of general merchandise obtained on a due-for-payment basis from customs documents are recorded according to the country’s import tax payment date, causing lack of harmonization with the change of ownership principle. - BPM5 recommends, as an alternative, using the date when the merchandise crosses the country’s border. - 2.4.3 Grossing/netting - BPM5 guidelines are partially applied: Current and Capital accounts recorded on a gross basis; Financial Account transactions recorded on a net basis. ### Accuracy and reliability (3.) - 3.1 Source data - 3.1.1 Comprehensive data collection - Data used to compile the balance of payments are generally considered adequate. - Need to improve coverage of private sector transactions by extending surveys for: - (1) services (transport, insurance, financial, cultural, merchanting, royalties, computers, cultural, etc.); - (2) financial transactions (trade credits, portfolio investment, direct investment, and other investment (assets and liabilities)). - Main sources: - Goods: general merchandise, goods for processing, goods procured in port by carriers. General merchandise based on Customs General Directorate (CGD) and recorded in f.o.b. terms. Adjustments to coverage, valuation, and timeliness for exports of fresh fish, shrimp, lobster, and bananas using public entities or associations of producers. Imports adjusted for petroleum, oil products, and electricity using National Institute of Energy (NIE). - Goods for processing data from Corporation of Free Zones (CFZ); goods procured in port by carriers are exclusively exports of jet fuel reported by NIE. - Services: - Transport: freight credit entries estimated using proportion of exports to Central America whose road freight services are provided by Nicaraguan residents; assumption that neither sea nor air services are provided. Passenger services from annual survey to nonresident air carriers. Complementary information from National Port Company (NPC) and International Airports Administrating Enterprise (IAAE). Other transportation services include commissions of travel agents paid by nonresident air carriers. - Travel: DEP estimates based on (1) General Directorate of Migration and Alien (GDMA) reporting number of residents and nonresidents arriving and leaving and average nights per tourist; and (2) Annual Survey of the Nicaraguan Tourism Institute (NTI) providing travelers’ expense averages, adjusted by DBP using an indicator of the exchange rate vis-à-vis the US dollar and the consumer price index. DEP is about to implement the Tourism Satellite Accounts to improve travel entries data. - Other services: credit entries cover communication, insurance, government, and other services; debit entries also cover other business services. Sources: Nicaraguan Telecommunications Company (NTC) for communication; insurance related to external trade of goods using same sources and methodology as freights services; government services (credit) estimated from last data available (year 1996) adjusted by an inflation index; debit entries reported by Ministry of External Relationships (MER) for embassy expenses; Other Services debit include technical assistance reported by Secretary of External Cooperation of the MER (SEC-MER). - Income: - Credit: CBN’s interest accrued from Department of Administration of Reserves; financial system interest accrued provided by Monetary Programming Department based on SOBFI’s balance sheet data. - No estimates on private sector’s interest flows from BIS publications. - Debit: interest on external public debt from DMFAS System; foreign direct investment data from annual foreign direct investment survey carried out jointly with national accounts, includes reinvested earnings. - No data on interest paid or accrual for the financial sector are included. - Current transfers: private transfers (workers’ remittances) from major money transfer companies, financial system, and DEP estimates on remittances from Nicaraguan nationals in Costa Rica; NGO grants from SEC-MER. - Capital transfers: grants from Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (MFPC) and SEC-MER. - Financial account: - Portfolio investment liabilities estimated using a fixed coefficient of total amount of securities held by nonresidents from surveys to local stock exchange operators; not recorded at market prices. - Direct investment from survey carried out jointly with national accounts using enterprise selection from newspapers, periodicals, NTI and Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade (MDIT). - Other investment includes external public debt transactions from DMFAS System; financial sector transactions from Monetary Programming Department based on SOBFI data (coverage not complete); commercial credits from General Directorate of Taxation (DGT). - Reserve assets: change recorded using Monetary Programming Department information; entries include accrual interest; reserves include valuation changes not attributable to transactions and small capital contributions to international organizations; definition of reserves should be reviewed to exclude escrow accounts. - Exceptional financing: debt forgiveness, HIPC relief, debt renegotiations and changes in arrears from DMFAS System. - Nicaragua does not have an International Transactions Reporting System (ITRS) for compiling balance of payments statistics. - 3.1.2 Approximation to standards - Customs data are adjusted for exports of fresh fish with flakes, shrimp, coffee, and bananas; imports adjusted for petroleum and other oil products. - Data from surveys are in general satisfactory; questionnaires designed taking into account BPM5 guidelines. - Interest of External Public Debt is calculated by the DMFAS system and recorded as contractual maturities rather than on an accrual basis. - 3.1.3 Timeliness - The DEP has an internal calendar adapted to the requirements of the GDDS, maintaining, in general, good communication with other sources to obtain information on current transfers such as those provided by SEC-MER. - 3.2 Assessment of source data - 3.2.1 Routine assessment - Data sources are analyzed under a revisions’ schedule; major changes are incorporated into the balance of payments according to a revision cycle to prevent accumulation of revisions over long periods. - Data are analyzed for underreporting/misreporting and to verify temporal consistency; respondents are consulted if significant deviations occur. - Surveys are not conducted on the basis of sampling and no estimates or studies have been conducted on nonsampling errors. - Accuracy of public external debt data is routinely assessed by the DMFAS system with creditors’ statements. - Network access to the DMFAS System and to the Accounting and Financial Statistics Database is not provided to the DEP. *Source: _cr05426 - 1.2 Transparency* ### 3.3 Statistical techniques ### _cr05426 - 3.3 Statistical techniques ### 3.3 Statistical techniques - Data compilation employs sound statistical techniques; complementary information is used in cases of nonresponse and for the elaboration of estimates. - Surveys are designed to be easily completed and processed and detailed instructions are attached. - Reported data are checked before electronic processing. - International trade and supplementary data sources (e.g., workers’ remittances used to compile balance of payments statistics) are routinely assessed by cross checking with regional partner countries and international statistics. ### 3.3.2 Other statistical procedures (data adjustments, transformations, analysis) - Customs records freight and insurance values separately from imports data, which are recorded on a c.i.f. basis by the Customs’ Office; no conversion factor is required. - Coverage and valuation for specific export and import transactions are regularly adjusted. - Cross checks with data compiled from the CAMC are done periodically. - Data on workers’ remittances are adjusted to include remittances made directly by Nicaraguan nationals who work in Costa Rica and who cross the border by land. - There are no estimates of trade at border crossings attributed to border workers, as mentioned in paragraph 67 of BPM5. ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - Intermediate results are validated against other information where applicable (e.g., press reports on foreign direct investments). - Private sector interest data are not cross checked with income taxation registers. - Some BOP components are validated with related indicators: - External trade compared with airport and port activity. - Travel expenditures compared with records on citizenship and purpose of tourist arrivals. - Interest accrued to nonresidents deposits checked with an estimate of stocks and international reference interest rates. - The magnitude and sign of the net errors and omissions item are followed up; efforts are made to understand statistical deficiencies that may have caused them. - Bilateral reconciliations are done with countries in the region for foreign trade. - No comparisons are made between external debt data and the data compiled jointly by the BIS, IMF, OECD, and the World Bank. ### 3.5 Revision studies - There are no formal studies to assess revisions to the balance of payments statistics. - The CBN is constantly seeking to improve its statistical processes and takes into account recommendations of external experts who provided technical assistance. *Key observations from the Data Quality Assessment (selected items)* - Legal and institutional environment: The legal framework of the CBN is not robust enough to prosecute cases of survey nonresponse. Sub-optimal data sharing with Banking Superintendency. - Resources: More staff is needed to work on balance of payments surveys. - Relevance: Users’ needs are not monitored through a regular consultation process. - Other quality management: There are no formal quality assessment procedures. - Concepts and definitions: Some valuation adjustments are not in accordance with BPM5. External assets not readily available have been recorded as reserve assets (escrow accounts). No adjustments for goods consumed in Nicaragua after being recorded in goods for processing in the balance of payments. - Scope: Transactions of the nonfinancial private sector are recorded partially. Income debt entries do not record interest on an accrual basis by the banking system. - Classification/sectorization: Significant departures from BPM5 on the financial account. - Basis for recording: Interest of public external debt is not recorded on an accrual basis. Starting 2002, imports of goods are incorrectly recorded based when import taxes are paid. - Source data: Surveys do not cover some private sector services and financial transactions. Timeliness difficulties to record data from donors. - Assessment and validation: International data sources (BIS, IMF, OECD, World Bank) are not used. - Revision studies: Direction and magnitude of revisions are evaluated, but no formal studies are conducted to keep record of revisions. ### 4 Serviceability #### 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - Periodicity follows GDDS recommendations: Monthly, quarterly, and annual data are published. - Timeliness follows GDDS dissemination recommendations: - Quarterly BOP statistics are disseminated within three to four months after the reference period. - Annual BOP statistics are disseminated within six to nine months after the reference period. #### 4.2 Consistency - Efforts are made to ensure concepts, definitions, and classifications are consistent across monthly, quarterly, and annual BOP statistics. - When quarterly figures are revised, annual projections are corrected to ensure consistency. - Consistent time series converted into BPM5 exist for 1990-2003 (quarterly and annual) though not disseminated on the CBN’s website. - Annual time series for the last 40 years are published on the CBN’s website. - Time series are reconstructed when source data, methodology, or statistical techniques change, to maintain consistency. - The mission recommended disseminating the BPM5 classification along with the national presentation in CBN publications. - BOP statistics can be reconciled with monetary, trade, and external debt statistics; certain adjustments are made to improve coverage of the goods account. - BOP statistics do not show adjustments to the goods account made in national accounts (estimates mainly pertain to smuggling of tobacco products and some other items); there is no reference in the BOP methodology to alert users. - Flows of reserve assets cover the same accounts as monetary and financial statistics. - External debt statistics compiled by the DEP use DMFAS System data reconciled with flows compiled for the Department of Fiscal Statistics. #### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - There is no predetermined revision cycle; revisions are generally conducted annually and previous years’ data are corrected in light of new information where possible. - Users are informed about the preliminary nature of data by means of a footnote. - There is no schedule for revisions; generally revised within one year as definitive information becomes available. - There are no marks in the statistics indicating revisions to data. - No formal studies or analyses of revisions are conducted or published. ### 5 Accessibility #### 5.1 Data accessibility - BOP statistics are disseminated according to the information needs of senior authorities in Nicaragua with various levels of detail, but with departures from BPM5 guidelines. - Statistics are disseminated quarterly and annually with commentaries on current-period developments and in electronic format. - Additional series on trade, services, and public external debt are disseminated to improve national presentation scope. - BOP statistics are posted on the CBN's website (http://www.bcn.gob.ni) and published in hard copy. - More comprehensive and detailed statistics are disseminated for external trade transactions. - Consistent time series converted into BPM5 for 1990-2003 (quarterly and annual) are not on the CBN’s website; annual time series for the last 40 years are published on the CBN’s website. - There is no preannounced public schedule for dissemination, although an internal schedule exists within the institution. - Statistics are made available to all interested users simultaneously. - DEP responds to requests for additional, non-routinely disseminated statistics (commonly detailed export/import data); terms and conditions for nonpublished statistics are not disclosed to the public. #### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - The CBN’s website provides methodological notes on the country's balance of payments, foreign trade, and external debt, covering concepts, definitions, classifications, data sources, compilation methods, statistical techniques, and procedural aspects; the same notes are available in hard copy. - Different levels of metadata detail are made available to meet users’ requirements. - Working papers or other specialized studies were not produced and/or disseminated. #### 5.3 Assistance to users - Prompt and knowledgeable support is offered to users; contact points are publicized. - The CBN’s website contains a list of publications available to users, updated frequently. - Working documents and other services offered by the institution are published. - The CBN provides its information free of charge. *Source: _cr05426 - 3.3 Statistical techniques (Compiling Agency: Central Bank of Nicaragua )* ### 1.2 Transparency—Statistical ### _cr05426 - 1.2 Transparency—Statistical ### Transparency and Ethical Standards - 1.2 Transparency—Statistical: "policies and practices are transparent." - 1.2.4: "Advance notice is given of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques." - 1.3 Ethical standards—"Policies and practices are guided by ethical standards." - 1.3.1: "Guidelines for staff behavior are in place and are well known to the staff." - Assurance: "The principle of objectivity in the collection, processing, and dissemination of statistics is firmly adhered to." ### Methodological Soundness (Section 2) - Overall statement: "The methodological basis for the statistics follows internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices." - 2.1 Concepts and definitions - 2.1.1: "The overall structure in terms of concepts and definitions follows internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices." - 2.2 Scope - 2.2.1: "The scope is broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices." - 2.3 Classification/sectorization - 2.3.1: "Classification/sectorization systems used are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices." - 2.4 Basis for recording - 2.4.1: "Market prices are used to value flows and stocks." - 2.4.2: "Recording is done on an accrual basis." - 2.4.3: "Grossing/netting procedures are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices." ### Accuracy and Reliability (Section 3) - Overall statement: "Source data and statistical techniques are sound and statistical outputs sufficiently portray reality." - 3.1 Source data - 3.1.1: "Source data are obtained from comprehensive data collection programs that take into account country-specific conditions." - 3.1.2: "Source data reasonably approximate the definitions, scope, classifications, valuation, and time of recording required." - 3.1.3: "Source data are timely." - 3.2 Assessment of source data - 3.2.1: "Source data—including censuses, sample surveys, and administrative records—are routinely assessed, e.g., for coverage, sample error, response error, and nonsampling error; the results of the assessments are monitored and made available to guide statistical processes." - 3.3 Statistical techniques - 3.3.1: "Data compilation employs sound statistical techniques to deal with data sources." - 3.3.2: "Other statistical procedures (e.g., data adjustments and transformations, and statistical analysis) employ sound statistical techniques." - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs - 3.4.1: "Intermediate results are validated against other information where applicable." - 3.4.2: "Statistical discrepancies in intermediate data are assessed and investigated." - 3.4.3: "Statistical discrepancies and other potential indicators or problems in statistical outputs are investigated." - 3.5 Revision studies - 3.5.1: "Studies and analyses of revisions are carried out routinely and used internally to inform statistical processes (see also 4.3.3)." ### Serviceability (Section 4) - Overall statement: "Statistics, with adequate periodicity and timeliness, are consistent and follow a predictable revisions policy." - 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - 4.1.1: "Periodicity follows dissemination standards." - 4.1.2: "Timeliness follows dissemination standards." - 4.2 Consistency - 4.2.1: "Statistics are consistent within the dataset." - 4.2.2: "Statistics are consistent or reconcilable over a reasonable period of time." - 4.2.3: "Statistics are consistent or reconcilable with those obtained through other data sources and/or statistical frameworks." - 4.3 Revision policy and practice - 4.3.1: "Revisions follow a regular and transparent schedule." - 4.3.2: "Preliminary and/or revised data are clearly identified." - 4.3.3: "Studies and analyses of revisions are made public (see also 3.5.1)." ### Accessibility (Section 5) - Overall statement: "Data and metadata are easily available and assistance to users is adequate." - 5.1 Data accessibility - 5.1.1: "Statistics are presented in a way that facilitates proper interpretation and meaningful comparisons (layout and clarity of text, tables, and charts)." - 5.1.2: "Dissemination media and format are adequate." - 5.1.3: "Statistics are released on a preannounced schedule." - 5.1.4: "Statistics are made available to all users at the same time." - 5.1.5: "Statistics not routinely disseminated are made available upon request." - 5.2 Metadata accessibility - 5.2.1: "Documentation on concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques is available, and differences from internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices are annotated." - 5.2.2: "Levels of detail are adapted to the needs of the intended audience." - 5.3 Assistance to users - 5.3.1: "Contact points for each subject field are publicized." - 5.3.2: "Catalogs of publications, documents, and other services, including information on any charges, are widely available." ### Users’ Survey — Method and Response - Survey conducted by the CBN using an IMF staff questionnaire. - Questionnaires sent: 117 - Responses received: 27 - Respondent types (Table 1 counts) - Government: 9 - State-owned agencies (enterprises): 5 - Banks: 1 - Other enterprises: 4 - Embassies: 4 - Universities (researcher): 1 - Media: 1 - Supervisory, regulatory institutions (stock exchange): 2 - Total: 27 ### Users’ Survey — Key Usage and Access Statistics (Table 2) - Official statistics regularly used (number of responses) - National accounts (NA): 20 - Prices: 18 - Government finance statistics (GFS): 18 - Monetary statistics (Monetary): 20 - Balance of payments (BOP): 18 - Other (selected): Production indices 15, Labor market 14, Merchandise trade 10, International reserves and foreign currency liquidity 15, External debt 18, International investment position 9, Other 6 - Sources for official statistics (number of responses) - Official press releases and publications: 20 - Private sector summaries and analyses: 8 - Official policy papers: 12 - Publications from international organizations about the country: 15 - Other sources: 7 - Reference to official descriptions of sources/methods - Yes: 16 - No: 8 - Purposes of use (number of responses) - Analysis of current developments for short-term decision making: 16 - Analysis of trends for longer-term policy formulation: 15 - Econometric model building and forecasting: 5 - Economic research: 20 - Comparison with other countries: 11 - General economic background: 13 - Other: 4 ### Users’ Survey — Coverage, Timeliness, Dissemination, and Accessibility (selected indicators) - Coverage: In general, satisfied with coverage (Yes counts) - NA: 14; Prices: 16; GFS: 14; Monetary: 23; BOP: 18; Other: 1 - Corresponding No counts: NA 5; Prices 3; GFS 4; Monetary 0; BOP 4; Other 2 - Level of detail: satisfied (Yes counts) - NA: 11; Prices: 14; GFS: 12; Monetary: 22; BOP: 16; Other: 2 - No counts: NA 8; Prices 5; GFS 6; Monetary 1; BOP 5; Other 1 - Periodicity (satisfied with frequency) — Yes counts - NA: 18; Prices: 16; GFS: 15; Monetary: 19; BOP: 19; Other: 3 - No counts: NA 0; Prices 3; GFS 2; Monetary 3; BOP 1; Other 1 - Timeliness (disseminated with appropriate timeliness) — Yes/No counts - NA Yes: 7; No: 11 - Prices Yes: 9; No: 8 - GFS Yes: 7; No: 8 - Monetary Yes: 13; No: 8 - BOP Yes: 8; No: 10 - Other Yes: 1; No: 2 - Publicly disseminated calendar known (Yes/No counts) - NA Yes: 2; No: 19 - Prices Yes: 5; No: 13 - GFS Yes: 3; No: 14 - Monetary Yes: 5; No: 17 - BOP Yes: 4; No: 16 - Other Yes: 1; No: 5 - If calendar exists, released on announced dates (Yes/No counts) - NA Yes: 1; No: 8 - Prices Yes: 3; No: 7 - GFS Yes: 1; No: 7 - Monetary Yes: 5; No: 6 - BOP Yes: 3; No: 7 - Other Yes: 1; No: 3 - Information about revisions (Yes/No counts) - NA Yes: 9; No: 8 - Prices Yes: 13; No: 4 - GFS Yes: 10; No: 6 - Monetary Yes: 14; No: 7 - BOP Yes: 12; No: 5 - Other Yes: 3; No: 1 - Accessibility (can easily access official statistics) — Yes/No counts - NA Yes: 17; No: 3 - Prices Yes: 17; No: 3 - GFS Yes: 17; No: 3 - Monetary Yes: 20; No: 3 - BOP Yes: 18; No: 3 - Other Yes: 2; No: 0 - Ease of access to methodology/explanatory information — Yes/No counts - NA Yes: 9; No: 11 - Prices Yes: 9; No: 8 - GFS Yes: 7; No: 10 - Monetary Yes: 12; No: 10 - BOP Yes: 11; No: 9 - Other Yes: 0; No: 2 - Is methodology sufficiently clear and detailed? — Yes: 13; No: 10 - How users access official statistics (aggregate counts) - Official releases: 12 - Hard copy publications: 22 - Data specifically requested: 13 - Official website: 24 - Other: 3 - E-mail requests: 11 ### Users’ Survey — Overall Assessment (selected) - Underlying methodology sound and appropriate — Yes counts - NA: 14; Prices: 13; GFS: 14; Monetary: 17; BOP: 17; Other: 2 - No counts: NA 2; Prices 0; GFS 1; Monetary 0; BOP 0; Other 0 - Official statistics unbiased and accurate — Yes/No counts - NA Yes: 6; No: 6 - Prices Yes: 7; No: 6 - GFS Yes: 5; No: 6 - Monetary Yes: 8; No: 5 - BOP Yes: 8; No: 4 - Other Yes: 1; No: 0 - Comparison with regional quality (counts for Better / Same / Worse) - Better: NA 2; Prices 3; GFS 2; Monetary 3; BOP 0; Other 0 - Same: NA 9; Prices 9; GFS 10; Monetary 11; BOP 12; Other 2 - Worse: NA 1; Prices 1; GFS 1; Monetary 0; BOP 1; Other 0 - Overall quality rating (1 poor - 5 excellent) — distribution (counts across 1 to 5) - NA: 5 | Prices: 3 | GFS: 4 | Monetary: 8 | BOP: 5 | Other: 0 - (These counts correspond to the 1–5 rating categories presented in the questionnaire.) ### Users’ Qualitative Comments (Box 1 — selected themes and numbers) - Main user concerns and suggestions (selected verbatim themes): - "The timelines of the statistics should improve." - "There is a considerable lack of socio-economic statistics in Nicaragua." - "Time series and charts will help to analyze data more efficiently." - "Better and comprehensive explanation of the base year in National Accounts is needed." - "An improved and comprehensive detail of fiscal accounts is needed." - "When there is a special request on data there is no response." - "Additional breakdown on Agroindustrial statistics is needed." - "It is important to have bilateral trade data." - "There is lack of consistency in statistical data." - "Statistical information on the informal sector in Nicaragua could be useful." - "It is imperative to improve the coverage of Government Finance Statistics, including local governments, and government agencies." - "There are some problems with foreign investment and workers’ remittances in balance of payments statistics." - "Trade statistics are always published with a lag." - Positive user feedback: - "In general the statistical information disseminated by the CBN is of good quality." - "The information system of the BCN has improved notably." - Users consistently cited the CBN as the agency with the more reliable information. *Source: _cr05426 - 1.2 Transparency—Statistical* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/_cr05426.pdf_