## _cr0601 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [_cr0601](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/_cr0601.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/_cr0601.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/_cr0601.pdf.json) --- ### Overview - Second annual PRSP PR prepared by the GOT; covers the year of 2004. - Report aims to: - inform about the development of Tajikistan’s key poverty reduction policy and indicators; - take a critical look at the current poverty reduction strategy and propose ways to enhance it. - Structure highlights (chapter focus): - Chapter 2: status and dynamics of poverty-related indicators. - Chapter 3: GOT macroeconomic management performance in 2004. - Chapters 4–7: institutional shortfalls, health, education, social sectors, labor market, private sector. - Chapters 8–9: infrastructure rehabilitation and environmental protection. - Chapters 10–11: PRSP monitoring, roles of GOT, civil society, ECG, RMCs, Parliament, media, donors. - Chapter 12: strategic framework proposals. ### Current poverty status — Income poverty, growth and employment - Growth and inequality - Since 1999 GDP per capita in current prices grew by an average annual rate of 10 percent. - In 2004 GDP per capita reached USD309. - Cotton expansion and rise in world cotton prices (estimated at by 45 percent in 2003-04 compared with 1999-00) generated much growth. - Khatlon and Soghd were responsible for 85 percent of Tajikistan’s cotton production. - Number of poor fell to 64 percent in 2003 compared with 81 percent in 1999. - Regional poverty in 2003: Khatlon 78 percent; GBAO 84 percent. - Gini coefficient by expenditures: rose from 0.33 in 1999 to 0.35 in 2004. - Gini coefficient by revenues: rose from 0.47 in 1999 to 0.51 in 2004. - Absolute poverty rates: rural 65 percent; urban 59 percent. - Key tabulated indicators (preserved exactly) - GDP per capita, USD: 1999 177; 2000 189; 2001 203; 2002 220; 2003 237; 2004 N/A - Cash earnings, current prices, million SM: 1999 738.3; 2000 1004.6; 2001 1302.5; 2002 1587.3; 2003 2352.7; 2004 2796.9 - Cash expenditures and savings, current prices, million SM: 1999 716.1; 2000 909.9; 2001 1256.2; 2002 1553.9; 2003 2343.3; 2004 2582.2 - Average monthly salary, SM: 1999 11.61; 2000 15.57; 2001 23.50; 2002 32.55; 2003 44.31; 2004 71.77 - Average monthly pension, SM: 1999 3.53; 2000 4.06; 2001 6.01; 2002 10.09; 2003 13.07; 2004 18.78 - Minimal wage size (average monthly), SM: 1999 1.00; 2000 1.00; 2001 2.00; 2002 4.00; 2003 7.00; 2004 12.00 - Employment and enterprise ownership (preserved exactly) - Official unemployment decreased by 9.5 percent to 38.8 thousand or 2.2 percept of the economically active population in 2004 compared with 2003. - WB PAU estimated unemployment decreased from 16 percent in 1999 to 12 percent in 2003. - Economically active population increased by 2.3 percent in 2004 vs 2003; employment increased by 2.9 percent but lagged behind labor force growth by almost 40 percent. - Public employment fell and private-sector employment, particularly in agriculture, grew in 2004. - Enterprise ownership totals (thousand persons): - Public: 1999 646.4; 2000 558.5; 2001 520.0; 2002 517.1; 2004 481.2 - Private: 1999 641.7; 2000 751.7; 2001 743.5; 2002 816.0; 2004 843.5 - Collective: 1999 432.6; 2000 415.2; 2001 550.2; 2002 510.8; 2004 542.4 - Mixed with foreign capital: 1999 6.7; 2000 14.1; 2001 13.2; 2002 12.0; 2004 16.9 - Mixed without foreign capital: 1999 9.6; 2000 5.9; 2001 1.9; 2002 1.2; 2004 0.8 - Total: 1999 1737.0; 2000 1745.4; 2001 1828.8; 2002 1857.1; 2004 1884.8 - Significant regional differences persisted; slight migration from urban to rural areas noted. ### Capability poverty — access to services, education, healthcare - Energy and water - More power was generated in 2004 than in previous years, but production increase rates fell behind population growth rates. - Central heating available to 6 percent of consumers; 21 percent using gas heating. - Coal and biomass primarily used by poor rural populations. - Electricity production and population (preserved exactly): - Power production, million kW-hr / Population, thousands / Per Capita Electricity Production, kW-hr: - 1999 15797 / 6126.7 / 2578.4 - 2000 14247 / 6250.0 / 2279.5 - 2001 14336 / 6375.5 / 2248.6 - 2002 15244 / 6506.5 / 2342.9 - 2003 16304 / 6640.0 / 2455.4 - 2004 16354 / n.a. / n.a. - Drinking water: a third had access to chlorinated piped water; 29 percent used spring water; 40 percent of water consumed in 2004 was undrinkable; 41 percent of the population had access to piped water of uncertain quality. - Half of respondents in the National Nutrition, Water and Sanitation Survey claimed using less than 20 liters of water per day. - Communications and media - Teledensity (stationary / mobile / Internet / E-mail per 100 people): - 2000 3.50 / 0.009 / 0.001 / 0.11 - 2001 3.50 / 0.04 / 0.004 / 0.19 - 2002 3.57 / 0.14 / 0.006 / 0.03 - 2003 3.65 / 0.82 / 0.02 / 0.03 - 2004 3.83 / 2.47 / 0.03 / 0.03 - 93.1 percent of the population covered by TV broadcasting and 76.4 percent by radio broadcasting (GBAO lower: radio 37.7 percent, TV 89 percent). - Internet access limited; costs USD0.5-2 per hour. - Education - Secondary school attendance rate: national average 88 percent in 2004. - Non-attendance beyond 3rd grade (averages): - Urban: boys 6 percent; girls 18 percent. - Rural: boys 4 percent; girls 7 percent. - Dushanbe: girls 21 percent; boys 4 percent. - Literacy rate: 95 percent (a 4 percent fall compared with 1991). - Families of 65 percent of children who failed to attend school regularly were experiencing financial difficulties. - Public health and nutrition - Infant mortality decreased by 6.4 percent between 2001 and 2004. - Maternal mortality decreased by 24.1 percent between 2001 and 2004. - WB PAU estimated infant mortality to be 65 per 1000 live-births in 2003 (3.8 times higher than the official rate). - Maternal and infant mortality per 1000 live-births (MoH figures preserved exactly): - Maternal mortality: 2001 53.5; 2002 50.6; 2003 47.2; 2004 40.6 - Infant mortality, MoH: 2001 16; 2002 16.9; 2003 17.2; 2004 17.1 - Infant mortality, WB estimate: 2001 87 - Infectious disease incidence per 100,000 people: - Tuberculosis: 2001 55.6; 2002 49.6; 2003 66.5; 2004 64.3 - Measles: 2001 34; 2002 32; 2003 42; 2004 198 - HIV/AIDS: 2001 102.2; 2002 80.6; 2003 71.6; 2004 45.5 - Malaria: 2001 32.9; 2002 12.3; 2003 0.6; 2004 0.3 - (All data for 2004 are preliminary except for the HIV/AIDS incidence rate.) - Nutrition: - Acute hypotrophy among children under 5: 2003 4.7 percent → 2004 7.6 percent (in some areas up to 11 percent). - Chronic hypotrophy among children under 5: 2002 30 percent → 2004 31.4 ### Poverty perceptions and gender issues - Perceptions and marginal groups - Three-quarters of households ranked themselves lower than the national average. - Sixty-five percent of respondents were unsatisfied with their financial situation. - More than half believed welfare did not improve compared to 1999. - Groups economically marginalized in 2004: - Elderly (over half); - Unskilled manual agricultural labor (85-90 percent); - Women-led households; - Unemployed (56.5 percent of the officially registered unemployed); - Orphans and large families. - Gender and employment - Twice more men were permanently employed in 2004 than women. - Labor market divided into male and female segments; revenues in the female segment are 4-8 times lower than in the male segment. - Women’s average income in 2004 was 1.4 times lower than men’s. - Only 6.8 percent of dekhan farms were managed by women in 2004. - 70 percent of micro-credit recipients in rural areas were women; expansion limited by lack of collateral ownership. ### Macroeconomic management and performance (Chapter 3 summary) - Overall performance and risks - Tajikistan’s economy expanded throughout 2004; GDP grew at the fastest rate since 1999. - Inflation and budget deficit were brought under control; commodity exports make up 70 percent of the export structure. - IMF estimates remittances may have generated up to 20 percent of the GDP in 2004. - Vulnerability to external labor and commodity market and regulatory shocks highlighted. - Main near-term risks: cotton and aluminum price declines, higher oil prices; stronger growth in Russia and Kazakhstan could offset some negative impacts. - Key macroeconomic indicators (1999–2004) - GDP (mill Sm.): 1999: 1,345; 2000: 1,807; 2001: 2,512; 2002: 3,345; 2003: 4,758; 2004: 6,158 - GDP (% change): 1999: 3.7; 2000: 8.3; 2001: 10.3; 2002: 9.1; 2003: 10.2; 2004: 10.6 - Inflation (% end of the period): 1999: 30.1; 2000: 60.6; 2001: 12.5; 2002: 14.5; 2003: 13.7; 2004: 5.6 - GDP distribution (%) - Agriculture: 1999: 25.4; 2000: 27.0; 2001: 26.7; 2002: 22.0; 2003: 21.1; 2004: 21.6 - Industry: 1999: 21.7; 2000: 23.9; 2001: 22.6; 2002: 18.7; 2003: 17.7; 2004: 19.6 - Trade: 1999: 19.7; 2000: 18.3; 2001: 19.3; 2002: 19.4; 2003: 19.0; 2004: 19.7 - Construction: 1999: 5.4; 2000: 3.4; 2001: 4.1; 2002: 2.6; 2003: 3.1; 2004: 5.5 - Other: 1999: 27.8; 2000: 27.5; 2001: 27.4; 2002: 37.3; 2003: 39.1; 2004: 33.6 - Foreign trade (USD mill) - Exports: 1999: 689; 2000: 784; 2001: 652.0; 2002: 734; 2003: 798; 2004: 914 - Imports: 1999: 663; 2000: 675; 2001: 682.0; 2002: 721; 2003: 881; 2004: 1372 - Net exports: 1999: 26; 2000: 109; 2001: (30.0); 2002: 13; 2003: (83); 2004: 457 - External and current account - External debt (%GDP): 1999: 118.0; 2000: 128.0; 2001: 99.0; 2002: 82.0; 2003: 73.0; 2004: 42.2 - Current account operations (% GDP): 1999: (3.4); 2000: (6.5); 2001: (7.1); 2002: (2.7); 2003: (1.3); 2004: (3.9) ### Finance, monetary and banking sector developments - Fiscal and public investment - New Tax Code improved tax legislation and created incentives for private sector development. - Greater-than-expected tax revenues and stronger fiscal discipline allowed supplemental allocations in the social sector. - Introduction of a single tax on land increased fiscal pressure on dekhans and may have reduced agricultural profitability. - GOT reduced foreign debt burden from 80 to 42.8 percent of GDP; debt to Russia decreased by more than USD300 million. - 2004 budget allocated SM152.8 million or 2.9 percent of the GDP to the PIP; planned increase to 4 percent of the GDP in following years. - Monetary and banking - Exchange rate of the SM to the US Dollar leveled out at 3.0271. - Aggregate private deposits grew by 43.5 percent to SM108.6 million. - Private currency deposits grew by a factor of 1.4 or by SM26.1 million. - Private SM deposits grew by 54.9 percent or by SM6.6 million. - Aggregate corporate deposits grew by 16 percent to SM183 million (currency deposits SM77 million; SM deposits SM106 million). - Reserve money increased by the targeted rate of 10 percent. - NBT controlled inflation at a relatively stable 7 percent (note: end-period inflation reported 5.6 percent). - Banking sector reforms: - Refinancing rate lowered from 15 to 10 percent. - Liquidity ratio lowered from 75 to 30 percent. - Total loans disbursed by Tajik banks in 2004: SM1,091.5 million. - Foreign currency loans: SM635.8 million. - SM loans: SM455.7 million. - Micro-credit institutions disbursed over 17,200 loans for a total of SM55.5 million in 2004. - Micro-credit composition in 2004 (million SM): - Up to SM300: Million SM 0.6; Percent 1 - SM1,000-10,000: Million SM 27.3; Percent 49 - SM11,000-30,000: Million SM 27.6; Percent 50 - Banks increased aggregate statutory capital from 71.91 million to 96.45 million Somoni during first nine months of 2004. - Credit associations increased aggregate statutory capital from 2.36 million to 3.96 million Somoni. - In October 2004 foreign financial institutions owned 21.4 percent of the Tajik banking sector. - Financial governance and challenges - NBT’s Committee on Monetary Policy contributed to decision making; NBT interventions helped stabilize SM exchange rate. - Regulations for non-banking financial institutions being developed; insolvent banks closed; a private deposit guarantee fund established. - NBT reduced its personnel by 20 percent and plans further staff cuts. - Financial markets remain weak and public confidence in the banking sector is very low. ### Public Investment Program (PIP) performance and constraints - 2004 PIP (original design): - 32 projects; total cost USD499.5 million. - GOT contribution: USD60.5 million. - Foreign creditors: USD379.5 million. - Foreign donors: USD41.7 million. - Extra-budgetary sources: USD17.6 million. - Realized effectively: USD81.4 million or 16 percent of the whole program. - 2005–07 PIP: - 63 projects; total budget USD952.6 million. - 25 projects carried over: total cost USD470.2 million. - 39 new projects: total cost USD482.4 million. - Share of social programs will increase compared with the 2004–2006 PIP. - Coordination constraints: - PIP and PRSP poorly correlated; limited fundraising capacity prevents priorities-driven approach. - PRSP usability limited by lack of understanding across agencies, weak coordination with donors, poor linkages between PRSP, SEDP2015, PIP, and the state budget. - GOT committed to addressing these constraints and seeking consensus with donors. ### Local authorities and community-based development - Local authorities are primary providers of public services but PRSP has not assigned clear strategy and monitoring responsibilities. - GOT measures underway but poor capacity and financial constraints limit progress. - Community-based development supplements service delivery where local authorities lack capacity; supported by UNDP (Jamoat Development Committees), NSIFT, MSDSP. - Community participation noted in education and local governance, but capacity for comprehensive sustainable poverty reduction remains unproven. ### Health sector (5.1) — funding, reforms, donor support - Funding and expenditures - GOT increased the 2004 healthcare budget by SM25.8 million to 6.6 percent of the state budget vs 2003. - 2005 healthcare budget increased by SM28.8 million to 7 percent of the state budget. - For the first time GOT allocated funds for public vaccination: SM90 thousand in 2004 and 100 thousand in 2005. - State budget financed 16 percent of total health sector expenditures in 2004; foreign assistance 13 percent; households 71 percent. - WB estimated in 2003 that half of those in need received no treatment due to lack of financial means. - Public health budget, percentage of GDP (preliminary data): - 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 - 1,1 0.9 0,86 0,9 0,93 0,9 - Pilot reforms and PHC - Separate packages of guaranteed free services and pay services piloted; illegal payments largely stopped in pilots. - GOT committed to appropriations reforms: guaranteed free services, per-capita funding, increased appropriations for primary healthcare, and pay services rollout. - PHC training: 15 doctors and 22 nurses trained for oblast-level PHC training centers. - Percentage of women of fertile age having access to contraceptives increased by 3.2 percent to 23.3 percent in 2004. - Pharmaceuticals and donor support - National center for centralized public acquisitions of medications established with ADB and Pharmaciens Sans Frontiers assistance. - AKDN estimated 23 international and 84 national NGOs involved in community-level healthcare projects in 2004. - Donors include WB, ADB, government of Switzerland, WHO, UNICEF and USAID. ### Education sector (5.2) - Funding and reforms - 2005 education budget increased by SM88.8 million vs 2004; levels remain inadequate. - Public education budget, percentage of GDP (preliminary): - 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 - 2,1 2,3 2,5 2,6 2,8 2,7 - GOT initiated five-year education reform plan and adopted the Law on Education; academic pay scales may increase up to 25 percent; per capita financing piloted. - Community and infrastructure - PTAs encouraged to increase role in administration; PTAs expanded beyond fundraising in pilot areas. - MOE equipment needs estimated: 153.7 thousand sets of school desks and chairs, 66.8 thousand chairs, 9.9 thousand teacher desks, 29.7 thousand cabinets, 9.9 thousand boards. - Textbook shortages persist despite donor-sponsored acquisition of 1.5 million copies; some schools introduced payments for textbook use. - Teacher and vocational training - Uneven progress across institutes; Law on Vocational Training adopted; MLSP implementing Vocational Training Reform Project. ### Social protection (5.3) — coverage, CCPs, pensions, migration - Financing and coverage - Social protection spending amounted to 2 percent of the GDP and 16.3 percent of the state budget in 2004. - Rate to be increased to 17.7 percent of the GDP in 2005. - Funding levels do not meet requirements of the unreformed system. - Vulnerable groups and CCPs - Concern for children, particularly street children (Society and Children’s Rights estimated up to 3,000 children on Dushanbe streets in 2002). - CCP targeting schoolchildren in 2004: 323,558 individuals received SM7.76 million. - 545,545 households received compensations for electricity consumption amounting to SM11,225 thousand in 2004. - 417,316 households received compensation for gas consumption of SM8,436.3 thousand in 2004. - Jobs, migration and benefits - More than 82.5 thousand new jobs created in 2004. - Of 38,827 officially registered unemployed, only 5,163 received unemployment benefits in 2004. - 6,047 unemployed participated in career retraining programs. - Public works program involved 22,939 individuals. - MLSP estimates 420.6 thousand people migrated abroad in 2004; 2,349 were supported through official channels (a drop of 9,833 vs previous year). - Average salary in 2004: SM60.79 (a 37 percent increase from 2003). - Average pension in 2004: SM15.9 (a 22 percent increase from 2003). - Recipients of retirement and social benefits (Table 7): - Labor — 473 273 — 16,9 - Social — 60 920 — 6,37 - GOT developing accrual-based individual retirement accounts; transitional mixed system requires public appropriations of SM42 million per year. ### Labor market and employment (6) - Net growth of employed citizens by over 100 thousand in 2004, but employment policy remains underdeveloped. - GOT adopted laws On Promoting Employment and On Unions of Employers; regulatory documents in development. - SEC Employment Centers organized 193 vacancy fairs in 2004 involving 2,311 agencies and private companies (5.7 percent increase vs 2003); 39,853 vacancies offered (13.9 percent more than 2003). - Outcomes: 3,701 individuals received employment offers; 2,951 joined paid public works programs; 1,435 enrolled in vocational training programs. - Non-government and informal employment agencies active; unregulated market of mardikors expanding. - Women’s Labor Markets opened in Kourgan-Tyube and Khorog serving over a thousand individuals. ### Private sector development, privatization and land reform - Private sector climate and policy - Number of entrepreneurs growing; legal entities employing 9 or less: 1575 1342 1181 1215 1323 1483 (1999–2004). - Patent entrepreneurs: 50,7 62,2 70,3 71,3 88,3 n.a. (1999–2004 chart data). - IFC 2003 survey: most SMEs view business climate as difficult; administrative requirements complex; limited use of business support services. - GOT policy focused on legislative development and promotion of micro-credit; draft law On the State Control of Entrepreneurship and Concept on the Development of Entrepreneurship to 2015 under preparation. - Micro-credit: in 2004, 354 individuals received loans totaling SM141.6 thousand. - Privatization (7.2) - Privatization continued with sale of 110 medium and large enterprises in 2004; proceeds exceeded planned amount by 5.3 times. - As of end-2004, 8037 or 90 percent of state enterprises subject to privatization became private. - Table 8 — Privatization in 2004 (summary): - Small Enterprises privatized: 7348 - Medium and Large Enterprises privatized: 689 - Small Enterprises to be privatized: 32 - Medium and Large Enterprises to be privatized: 349 - Status of privatized enterprises: - In 2004, 54.2 percent of privatized enterprises increased their staff and salaries. - Post-Privatization regional functioning (Table 9): - Dushanbe: Total Privatized Enterprises 1669; Functioning Privatized Enterprises 1567; Percent 93,8 - Khatlon Oblast: Total 2447; Functioning 1204; Percent 49,2 - Sogd Oblast: Total 2304; Functioning 1755; Percent 76,1 - GBAO: Total 196; Functioning 97; Percent 49,4 - RRS: Total 1320; Functioning 943; Percent 71,4 - Republic: Total 7973; Functioning 5566; Percent 69,8 - Implication: privatization broadly advanced (90 percent) but large regional disparities in functioning enterprises persist. - Land reform (7.3) - Forty-five large farms restructured into 1524 smaller entities in 2004; 856 were dekhan farms with total area 19,327 hectares of arable land. - Land titles issued to 45,232 farmers. - Cumulative since 2002: 185 large farms restructured into 2,670 dekhan farms; 4,681.1 hectares or 60.1 percent of all arable lands became private. - Plans for 2005: restructure remaining 40 large farms and 22 breeding farms. - Agricultural output in 2004: SM2,259.9 thousand, an 11.3 percent increase from 2003 — deemed too low for food security. - 2,000 metric tons of seeds imported in 2004 for 2005 planting; plan to establish 65 new seed-growing farms. - Farming organization share (Chart 7, 2004): Collective farming 24%; Dekhan farms 22%; Single-owner farms 54%. - Agricultural debt (ADB estimate as of Jan 1, 2004): USD180 million (USD115 million seasonal; USD15 million repayable in next three years; USD50 million bad debts). ### Infrastructure rehabilitation (selected highlights) - Communications - Restored broken telephone circuits between ten villages in GBAO and Soghd Oblast and between 11 villages in the RRS. - Radio-telephone circuits established in 11 villages. - 1612 broken wired radio accounts and 620 telephone accounts restored. - Telephone switchboards digitized in Dushanbe and nine other towns; Internet facilities became available in Khorog, Vakhdat, Tursunzade, Hissar, Istravshan, Nourek, Dangara, Yavan, Roudaki. - 19 satellite TV transmitters in Soghd oblasts, two in Khatlon and 41 in the RRS; rehabilitation of 74 transmitters in GBAO planned. - Roads and energy - Dushanbe-Kourgan-Tyube-Koulyab restoration: delivery rate 62 percent of USD26.8 million project. - Shkev-Zigar highway (USD31.75 million): 57 percent delivery rate. - Shagon-Zigar highway (USD11.4 million): 82.percent delivery rate. - Of four planned power lines, only 53km Kanibadam-Batken put into operation in 2004. - Anzob tunnel project slowed by financing, capacity, and natural disasters. - Water, health and social infrastructure - Irrigation projects covered 15,408 hectares; total cost SM2,117 million. - Drinking water projects financed through community contributions; total cost SM780 million in 2004. - 172 healthcare providers built or restored and 33 sanitary-epidemiological laboratories established with ADB funding. - WB-funded: 3 family medicine centers, 2 polyclinics, 4 rural health centers built and equipped; 21 additional objects finishing phase. - Institute of Obstetrics, Gynecology, and Pediatrics restored with Saudi Fund and Reserve Fund financing. - 12 boarding houses for invalids, elderly, and orphans rehabilitated at total cost SM1.09 million (51.8 percent more than in 2003). ### Environment protection (9) - Institutional and implementation actions - SCEP expanded units for monitoring, standardization, resource usage, information, biodiversity. - ADB supporting establishment of Center for Environment Policy and Information in 2005. - SCEP conducted environmental audits at 2,630 companies/agencies; issued 4,663 directives; 2,564 implemented. - Fines of SM24,194 levied against 1,096 individuals; 16 claims of environmental damage made against private agencies. - Tree-Planting Program: SM172 thousand for Karategin and Zekhmatabad rayons. - Challenges - Poor public knowledge, low agency capacity, poverty-driven environment-hostile actions, poor financing for projects such as biological-waste power generation. - Donor-assisted Hissar Ridge Biodiversity project planned for 2005; eco-tourism promoted (first Tourism Faire in 2004 publicised 25 tourist programs). ### PRSP monitoring, institutional capacity and stakeholders - Overall assessment - Systematic and transparent monitoring is a key requirement but institutional framework inadequate. - GOT and civil society lack capacity for effective monitoring; PRSP ECG and RMCs unproven. - Government and civil society capacity gaps - Most GOT agencies lack capacity due to poor organization and ineffective information flows; local governments weakest. - PRSP MU lacks capacity to coordinate within GOT. - NGOs proliferated and carry out sectoral monitoring funded by donors; sustainable NGOs concentrated in Dushanbe and Khujand. - PRSP ECG and RMCs - ECG created by donors, GOT agencies and NGOs; initial meetings positive but ECG yet to prove itself. - GOT proposes PRSP RMCs as a nationwide monitoring network. - Data, indicators and public feedback - Poor data collection capacity and inconsistencies limit usability of official statistics. - Proposed monitoring indicators revised multiple times; final list not yet approved by all stakeholders. - GOT plans General Public Awareness and Feedback Strategy; PRS TF provides partial support; public awareness and feedback plan developed and partly implemented with grant funding. ### Roles of Parliament, media, donors, civil society (high-level) - Parliament - Role: legislative sanction for state budget and oversight; currently not proactive and lacks in-depth PRSP knowledge. - GOT proposals: include two MPs in PRSP ECG; establish permanent Poverty Reduction Policy Committee; provide training and consultative meetings. - In 2005, PRSTF budgeted USD50,000 for capacity-building events for Parliament and media. - Media (as of Oct 1, 2004) - 249 periodicals, 18 radio stations, 23 TV stations, 17 representative offices of foreign media registered. - Media ownership: >50 percent of print and radio privately-owned. - Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index: Tajik media ranked 95th of 167. - Mass media organizations (Table 10): - Newspapers total number: 186 (State-Owned 89; Private 97) - Magazines total number: 63 (State-Owned 27; Private 36) - Information agencies total number: 10 (State-Owned 1; Private 9) - Publishers total number: 68 (State-Owned 9; Private 59) - Constraints: poor distribution outside major cities, no daily periodicals (only weekly), obsolete equipment, variable reporting quality, limited PRSP monitoring role. - Donor community - Donor–GOT integration of credit resources into budgetary processes progressed; overall coordination remains low. - Differences persist between donors and GOT on priorities and approaches; many donors hesitate to conduct joint monitoring with GOT. ### MDGs and strategic framework revision (Chapter 12 highlights) - MDGs as priority; PRSP benchmarks closely related to MDGs. - Estimated per capita funding required (UN MDG team / Millennium Project): - Per capita funding required: USD133.55 - Food security sector: USD67 - Health: USD42 - Clean water and sanitation: USD12 - Education: USD20 - Health (appears duplicated/minor item): USD1.3 - Rationale for strategic revision - Duplication across PRSP, MDGs, SEDP2015 and sectoral strategies taxing GOT resources and creating ambiguity. - Presidential Decree established National Coordination Council to develop National Development Strategy; Council headed by Prime Minister. - Secretariat (restructured Executive Staff of the President) to coordinate development and implementation; expert groups to provide analytical input. - Draft timetable (selected items and targets) - National Council established — Target date: June 2005 — Indicator: Presidential Decree. - First meeting conducted, procedures established — Target date: End of July 2005 — Indicator: Approval of operating procedure. - National Council Secretariat established — Target date: Early August 2005 — Indicator: Presidential Decree. - Public roundtable on systematized policy-making process — Target date: July 2005 — Indicator: Consensus. - Consultations with donor community partners — Target date: July 2005 — Indicator: Expert groups created. - Existing strategic framework reviewed; linkages established — Target date: July-September 2005. - Monitoring group subordinated to the Secretariat — Target date: September 2005. - Concept Note on new strategic framework drafted and presented to September Summit — Target date: September 2005 — Indicator: Presentation. - Selected PRSP / MDG-related statistics and indicators (as presented) - GDP per capita, USD: 236.7 (2003); 309.2 (2004); 178.2 (1999); 1050 (1990); 273 (i) 2373iii 308iii 149iii - Percentage of population below USD2.15$ PPP per day: 64ii (1990); 81ii (1999) - Percentage of population below USD1.08 per day: 18ii (1990); 36ii (1999) - Percentage of able-bodied population employed: 51.7 (2003); 55.6 (1999) - GDP change in real terms, percent: 110.2; 110.6; 103.7; 98.4iv - Inflation, percent: 13.7 (2004); 5.7 (2003); 26.3 (1999) - Foreign debt, percentage of GDP: 69.4iii; 42.2iii; 95.9iii - Loans disbursed by the banking sector, percentage of GDP: 3.3 (2004); 7.4 (2003); 3.6 (1999) - Private sector share of GDP, percent: 39.1v; 39.8v; 29.3 - State budget revenues, percentage of GDP: 17.3 (2003); 16.7 (2004); 18.6 (1999) - State budget, percentage of GDP: 16.2 (2004); 17.6 (2003); 17.6 (1999) - Public health expenditures in the state budget, percentage of GDP: 0.9 (2004); 0.9 (2003); 1.0 (1999) - Public education expenditures in the state budget, percentage of GDP: 2.41 (2004); 2.7 (2003); 2,1 (1999) - Social protection expenditures in the state budget, percentage of GDP: 0.5 (2004); 0.5 (2003); 0.2 (1999) - Irrigation expenditures, percentage of GDP: 0.2 (2004); 0.1 (2003) - Average salary in the public service as percentage of average salary in the private sector: 146.9; 64.5 - Unemployment, percent: 2.4 (2004); 2.2 (2003); 3.0 (1999) - Household income, Somoni per one member of the household: 35.38 (2003); 44.32 (2004) - Average salary in the public service: 44.47 (2003); 60.79vi (2004); 11.61 (1999) - Average monthly pension, Somoni: 13.07 (2003); 16.92 (2004); 3.53 (1999) - Literacy by sex (aggregate): m-97.4viii; f-93,2viii; ∑-95,3viii - Students/teacher ratio: 16 (2003); 17 (2004); 15 (1999) - Maternal mortality, per 100,000 live-births: 36.5 (2003); 53.0 (1999) - Infant mortality, per 100,000 live-births: 19.4; 89.04; 92.5; 89.4 - Tuberculosis prevalence, 100,000 population: 66.5 (2004); 66.6 (2003); 42.1 (1999) - Number of telephone lines per 100 residents: 3.65 (2003); 3.83 (2004); 3.51 (1999) - Number of mobile telephone accounts per 100 residents: 0.82 (2003); 2.42 (2004) - Production of power per capita, kW-Hr: 2555,4 (2003); 2523,7 (2004); 2293,77 (1999) - Strategic priorities implied - Consolidate PRSP, MDGs, SEDP2015 and sectoral strategies into a single National Development Strategy coordinated by National Council and Secretariat. - Strengthen analytical and implementation capacity across ministries, enhance public awareness/feedback mechanisms, and align medium-term budgetary planning with strategic priorities. *Source: Tajikistan PRSP Progress Report 2004 (2004 Annual Progress Report, sections and annexes as provided).* ### Introduction 3 ### Introduction 3 ### Overview - This document is the second annual PRSP PR prepared by the GOT. The first PRSP PR was published in March 2004 and covered the period from the adoption of the PRSP in June 2002 until the end of 2003. This PR covers the year of 2004. - The report aims to: - inform about the development of Tajikistan’s key poverty reduction policy and indicators; - take a critical look at the current poverty reduction strategy and propose ways to enhance it. - Structure highlights: - Chapter 2: status and dynamics of poverty-related indicators (income poverty and capability poverty). - Chapter 3: GOT macroeconomic management performance in 2004. - Chapter 4: institutional shortfalls affecting poverty reduction. - Chapter 5: health, education, and social sectors. - Chapter 6: labor market performance. - Chapter 7: private sector development. - Chapters 8–9: infrastructure rehabilitation and environmental protection. - Chapters 10–11: roles of GOT, civil society, ECG, RMCs, Parliament, media, and donors in PRSP monitoring and implementation. - Chapter 12: strategic framework proposals. ### Current Poverty Status and Dynamics — Income Poverty: Economic Growth and Employment - Growth - Since 1999 GDP per capita in current prices grew by an average annual rate of 10 percent. - In 2004 GDP per capita reached USD309. - Higher growth rates were recorded in Khatlon, Sogd, and GBAO; Dushanbe and RRS grew relatively slower. - Much growth was generated by expansion of the cotton market and a rise in world cotton prices (estimated at by 45 percent in 2003-04 compared with 1999-00). - Khatlon and Soghd were responsible for 85 percent of Tajikistan’s cotton production. - Despite growth, income poverty remained high: the number of poor fell to 64 percent in 2003 compared with 81 percent in 1999. - Regional poverty in 2003: Khatlon 78 percent; GBAO 84 percent. - Gini coefficient by expenditures rose from 0.33 in 1999 to 0.35 in 2004; by revenues from 0.47 in 1999 to 0.51 in 2004. - Absolute poverty rates: rural 65 percent; urban 59 percent. - Key tabulated indicators (preserved exactly) - GDP per capita, USD: 1999 177; 2000 189; 2001 203; 2002 220; 2003 237; 2004 N/A - Cash earnings, current prices, million SM: 1999 738.3; 2000 1004.6; 2001 1302.5; 2002 1587.3; 2003 2352.7; 2004 2796.9 - Cash expenditures and savings, current prices, million SM: 1999 716.1; 2000 909.9; 2001 1256.2; 2002 1553.9; 2003 2343.3; 2004 2582.2 - Average monthly salary, SM: 1999 11.61; 2000 15.57; 2001 23.50; 2002 32.55; 2003 44.31; 2004 71.77 - Average monthly pension, SM: 1999 3.53; 2000 4.06; 2001 6.01; 2002 10.09; 2003 13.07; 2004 18.78 - Minimal wage size (average monthly), SM: 1999 1.00; 2000 1.00; 2001 2.00; 2002 4.00; 2003 7.00; 2004 12.00 - Employment - Official unemployment decreased by 9.5 percent to 38.8 thousand or 2.2 percept of the economically active population in 2004 compared with 2003. - WB PAU estimated unemployment decreased from 16 percent in 1999 to 12 percent in 2003. - The economically active population increased by 2.3 percent in 2004 compared with 2003; employment increased by 2.9 percent but lagged behind labor force growth by almost 40 percent. - Public employment fell and private-sector employment, particularly in agriculture, grew in 2004. - Enterprise ownership totals (thousand persons) preserved exactly: - Public: 1999 646.4; 2000 558.5; 2001 520.0; 2002 517.1; 2004 481.2 - Private: 1999 641.7; 2000 751.7; 2001 743.5; 2002 816.0; 2004 843.5 - Collective: 1999 432.6; 2000 415.2; 2001 550.2; 2002 510.8; 2004 542.4 - Mixed with foreign capital: 1999 6.7; 2000 14.1; 2001 13.2; 2002 12.0; 2004 16.9 - Mixed without foreign capital: 1999 9.6; 2000 5.9; 2001 1.9; 2002 1.2; 2004 0.8 - Total: 1999 1737.0; 2000 1745.4; 2001 1828.8; 2002 1857.1; 2004 1884.8 - Significant regional differences persisted; slight migration from urban to rural areas noted. ### Current Poverty Status and Dynamics — Capability Poverty: Access to Services, Education and Healthcare - Energy - More power was generated in 2004 than in previous years, but production increase rates fell behind population growth rates. - Central heating was available to 6 percent of consumers. - Twenty-one percent were using gas heating. - Coal and biomass were generally accessible and used primarily by poor populations in rural areas. - Electricity production and population (preserved exactly) - Power production, million kW-hr / Population, thousands / Per Capita Electricity Production, kW-hr: - 1999 15797 / 6126.7 / 2578.4 - 2000 14247 / 6250.0 / 2279.5 - 2001 14336 / 6375.5 / 2248.6 - 2002 15244 / 6506.5 / 2342.9 - 2003 16304 / 6640.0 / 2455.4 - 2004 16354 / n.a. / n.a. - Water - According to UNICEF and WHO, Tajikistan remained the most poorly supplied with drinking water country in the world. - A third of consumers had access to chlorinated piped water; 29 percent used spring water; the rest used river and ditch water. - Forty percent of water consumed in 2004 was undrinkable; 41 percent of the population had access to piped water of uncertain quality. - Half of respondents in the National Nutrition, Water and Sanitation Survey claimed using less than 20 liters of water per day. - Communications (teledensity preserved exactly) - Stationary telephones per 100 people / Mobile telephones per 100 people / Internet accounts per 100 people / E-mail accounts per 100 people: - 2000 3.50 / 0.009 / 0.001 / 0.11 - 2001 3.50 / 0.04 / 0.004 / 0.19 - 2002 3.57 / 0.14 / 0.006 / 0.03 - 2003 3.65 / 0.82 / 0.02 / 0.03 - 2004 3.83 / 2.47 / 0.03 / 0.03 - 93.1 percent of the population was covered by TV broadcasting and 76.4 percent by radio broadcasting (GBAO lower: radio 37.7 percent, TV 89 percent). - Internet access remained limited with costs of USD0.5-2 per hour. - Education - Secondary school attendance rates fell to a national average of 88 percent in 2004. - Non-attendance beyond 3rd grade (averages): - Urban: boys 6 percent; girls 18 percent. - Rural: boys 4 percent; girls 7 percent. - Dushanbe: girls 21 percent; boys 4 percent. - Literacy rate: 95 percent (a 4 percent fall compared with 1991). - Families of 65 percent of children who failed to attend school regularly were experiencing financial difficulties. - Public Health - Infant mortality decreased by 6.4 percent between 2001 and 2004. - Maternal mortality decreased by 24.1 percent between 2001 and 2004. - WB PAU estimated infant mortality to be 65 per 1000 live-births in 2003 (3.8 times higher than the official rate). - Maternal and infant mortality per 1000 live-births (MoH figures preserved exactly): - Maternal mortality: 2001 53.5; 2002 50.6; 2003 47.2; 2004 40.6 - Infant mortality, MoH: 2001 16; 2002 16.9; 2003 17.2; 2004 17.1 - Infant mortality, WB estimate: 2001 87 (chart context suggests this is WB estimate for 2001) - Infectious disease incidence per 100,000 people (2001–2004, preserved exactly where given): - Tuberculosis: 2001 55.6; 2002 49.6; 2003 66.5; 2004 64.3 - Measles: 2001 34; 2002 32; 2003 42; 2004 198 - HIV/AIDS: 2001 102.2; 2002 80.6; 2003 71.6; 2004 45.5 - Malaria: 2001 32.9; 2002 12.3; 2003 0.6; 2004 0.3 - (All data for 2004 are preliminary except for the HIV/AIDS incidence rate.) - Nutritional problems: - Acute hypotrophy among children under 5 increased from 4.7 percent in 2003 to 7.6 percent in 2004 (in some areas up to 11 percent). - Chronic hypotrophy among children under 5 increased from 30 percent in 2002 to 31.4 in 2004. ### Current Poverty Status and Dynamics — Poverty Perceptions and Gender Issues - Perceptions - Three-quarters of households ranked themselves lower than the national average. - Sixty-five percent of respondents were unsatisfied with their financial situation. - More than half believed that their welfare condition did not improve compared to 1999. - Groups economically marginalized in 2004 (preserved exactly) - Elderly (over half); - Unskilled manual agricultural labor (85-90 percent); - Women-led households; - Unemployed (56.5 percent of the officially registered unemployed); - Orphans and large families. - Gender and employment - Twice more men were permanently employed in 2004 than women. - Labor market divided into male and female segments; revenues in the female segment are 4-8 times lower than in the male segment. - Women’s average income in 2004 was 1.4 times lower than men’s. - Only 6.8 percent of dekhan farms were managed by women in 2004. - 70 percent of the recipients of micro-credits in rural areas were women, but expansion limited by lack of collateral ownership. ### Macroeconomic Management (summary of Chapter 3) - Policy priorities in 2004: stabilization, growth, and diversification. - Chapter 3 covers: - (3.1) dynamics of key macroeconomic policies and indicators in 2004; - (3.2) GOT’s progress in expanding capacity for macroeconomic management; - (3.3) GOT’s analysis of present macroeconomic risks; - (3.4) PRSP budgeting and the PIP. *2004 Annual Progress Report* ### 3.1 Macroeconomic Development in 2004 ### 3.1 Macroeconomic Development in 2004 ### Overall performance - Tajikistan’s economy expanded throughout 2004; GDP grew at the fastest rate since 1999. - Inflation and budget deficit were brought under control. - Exports continued to grow and diversify. - Commodity exports make up 70 percent of the export structure. - The IMF estimates that remittances may have generated up to 20 percent of the GDP in 2004. - Tajikistan remains vulnerable to external labor and commodity market and regulatory shocks. ### Key macroeconomic indicators (1999–2004) - GDP (mill Sm.): 1999: 1,345; 2000: 1,807; 2001: 2,512; 2002: 3,345; 2003: 4,758; 2004: 6,158 - GDP (% change): 1999: 3.7; 2000: 8.3; 2001: 10.3; 2002: 9.1; 2003: 10.2; 2004: 10.6 - Inflation (% end of the period): 1999: 30.1; 2000: 60.6; 2001: 12.5; 2002: 14.5; 2003: 13.7; 2004: 5.6 GDP distribution (%) - Agriculture: 1999: 25.4; 2000: 27.0; 2001: 26.7; 2002: 22.0; 2003: 21.1; 2004: 21.6 - Industry: 1999: 21.7; 2000: 23.9; 2001: 22.6; 2002: 18.7; 2003: 17.7; 2004: 19.6 - Trade: 1999: 19.7; 2000: 18.3; 2001: 19.3; 2002: 19.4; 2003: 19.0; 2004: 19.7 - Construction: 1999: 5.4; 2000: 3.4; 2001: 4.1; 2002: 2.6; 2003: 3.1; 2004: 5.5 - Other: 1999: 27.8; 2000: 27.5; 2001: 27.4; 2002: 37.3; 2003: 39.1; 2004: 33.6 Foreign trade (USD mill) - Exports: 1999: 689; 2000: 784; 2001: 652.0; 2002: 734; 2003: 798; 2004: 914 - Imports: 1999: 663; 2000: 675; 2001: 682.0; 2002: 721; 2003: 881; 2004: 1372 - Net exports: 1999: 26; 2000: 109; 2001: (30.0); 2002: 13; 2003: (83); 2004: 457 External and current account - External debt (%GDP): 1999: 118.0; 2000: 128.0; 2001: 99.0; 2002: 82.0; 2003: 73.0; 2004: 42.2 - Current account operations (% GDP): 1999: (3.4); 2000: (6.5); 2001: (7.1); 2002: (2.7); 2003: (1.3); 2004: (3.9) ### Finance - New Tax Code improved tax legislation and created additional incentives for private sector development. - Greater-than-expected tax revenues and stronger fiscal discipline allowed supplemental allocations in the social sector. - Introduction of a single tax on land increased fiscal pressure on dekhans and may have reduced agricultural profitability. - GOT reduced foreign debt burden from 80 to 42.8 percent of GDP; debt to Russia decreased by more than USD300 million. - Outstanding obligations remain fiscally unsustainable; additional debt reduction efforts are required. - 2004 budget allocated SM152.8 million or 2.9 percent of the GDP to the PIP; this amount will be increased to 4 percent of the GDP in following years. ### Monetary and credit developments - Exchange rate of the SM to the US Dollar leveled out at 3.0271. - Growing remittance inflows and expanding trade supported exchange-rate stability and deposit growth. - Aggregate private deposits grew by 43.5 percent to SM108.6 million. - Private currency deposits grew by a factor of 1.4 or by SM26.1 million. - Private SM deposits grew by 54.9 percent or by SM6.6 million. - Aggregate corporate deposits grew by 16 percent to SM183 million. - Of them currency deposits amounted to SM77 million and SM deposits amounted to SM106 million. - Reserve money increased by the targeted rate of 10 percent. - NBT controlled inflation at a relatively stable 7 percent (noting earlier line: end-period inflation 5.6 percent). - Banking sector reforms: - Refinancing rate lowered from 15 to 10 percent. - Liquidity ratio lowered from 75 to 30 percent. - Total loans disbursed by Tajik banks in 2004: SM1,091.5 million. - Foreign currency loans: SM635.8 million. - SM loans: SM455.7 million. - Micro-credit institutions disbursed over 17,200 loans for a total of SM55.5 million in 2004. Micro-credit composition in 2004 (million SM) - Up to SM300: Million SM 0.6; Percent 1 - SM1,000-10,000: Million SM 27.3; Percent 49 - SM11,000-30,000: Million SM 27.6; Percent 50 - Banks increased aggregate statutory capital from 71.91 million to 96.45 million Somoni during first nine months of 2004. - Credit associations increased aggregate statutory capital from 2.36 million to 3.96 million Somoni during the same period. - In October 2004 foreign financial institutions owned 21.4 percent of the Tajik banking sector. ### Monetary policy management and financial sector governance - NBT’s Committee on Monetary Policy contributed to decision making on monetary policy, money circulation, and refinancing rates. - NBT interventions on the interbank currency market helped stabilize the SM exchange rate. - Regulations concerning non-banking financial institutions are being developed; insolvent banks were closed. - A private deposit guarantee fund was established. - NBT reduced its personnel by 20 percent and plans further staff cuts. - Financial markets remain weak and public confidence in the banking sector is very low. ### Key challenges and reform priorities - GOT emphasizes: - Increasing transparency, accountability, and overall quality of macroeconomic management; enhancing macroeconomic research capacity. - Steps include streamlining ministries’ apparatus, eliminating duplication, improving public service effectiveness, increasing career incentives, and offering better training. - Streamlining roles of public agencies involved in macroeconomic decision making and integrating multiple policy and planning instruments. - Steps include enhancing coordination between MOF and NBT, particularly on monetary policy and inflation control. - PRSP will be integrated with SEDP2015 and PIP by establishing long-term developmental benchmarks and mainstreaming PRSP concepts into the state budget. - GOT seeks to reduce dependence on donor community for macroeconomic research and policy formulation and to strengthen ownership of the reform process. ### Macroeconomic risks - Main near-term risks derive from potential deterioration of the external environment: - Cotton and aluminum price declines could be deeper than projected if global growth weakens. - Higher oil prices would increase agricultural costs and import values. - Stronger growth in Russia and Kazakhstan could partially offset negative impacts by increasing demand for Tajik agricultural exports and migrant remittances. ### Public Investment Programs (PIP) 2004 and 2005–2007 - 2004 PIP (original design): - 32 projects; total cost USD499.5 million. - GOT contribution: USD60.5 million. - Foreign creditors: USD379.5 million. - Foreign donors: USD41.7 million. - Extra-budgetary sources: USD17.6 million. - Realized effectively: USD81.4 million or 16 percent of the whole program. - 2005–07 PIP: - 63 projects; total budget USD952.6 million. - 25 projects carried over from previous years: total cost USD470.2 million. - 39 new projects: total cost USD482.4 million. - Share of social programs will increase compared with the 2004–2006 PIP. - Coordination and prioritization constraints: - PIP and PRSP remained poorly correlated. - Limited capacity and focus on fundraising prevent a priorities-driven approach. - Usability of PRSP as a prioritization instrument limited due to: - Not all national and local government agencies understand the PRSP role or have capacity to use it as a strategic framework; - Weak coordination between PRSP and donor programs; - Poorly defined linkages between PRSP, SEDP2015, PIP, and the state budget. - GOT acknowledges constraints and is committed to addressing them, noting the need for consensus with the donor community. *Source: 3.1 Macroeconomic Development in 2004 (2004 Annual Progress Report)* ### 4.7 Local Authorities ### 4.7 Local Authorities ### Role of Local Authorities and Community-based Development - Local authorities are primary providers of public services and play a key role in poverty reduction. - The PRSP has generally failed to assign local authorities clear strategy and monitoring responsibilities. - Government of Tajikistan (GOT) is taking measures to address this gap, but poor capacity and financial constraints are preventing rapid progress. - Where local authorities lack capacity, community efforts supplement service delivery; community-based development is supported by foreign partners: - UNDP implements investment projects through its network of Jamoat Development Committees. - NSIFT offers training on needs prioritization and project development and supplements training with financial resources. - MSDSP implements projects at the level of village organizations. - GOT supports these efforts but emphasizes the importance of transparency and accountability. - Community participation contributes to building sustainable institutions and improving governance at local levels; jamoats have strengthened roles in areas such as education. - The capacity of communities to address poverty reduction comprehensively and sustainably is yet to be proven. ### Health (5.1) - Policy and Funding: - GOT increased the 2004 healthcare budget by SM25.8 million to 6.6 percent of the state budget compared to 2003. - The 2005 healthcare budget will be further increased by SM28.8 million to 7 percent of the state budget. - For the first time since independence GOT allocated funds for public vaccination: SM90 thousand in 2004 and 100 thousand in 2005. - State budget financed 16 percent of all total health sector expenditures in 2004. - Foreign assistance contributed 13 percent and households, 71 percent of health sector expenditures in 2004. - WB estimated in 2003 that half of those in need received no treatment due to lack of financial means; a third practiced self-treatment and 11 percent had hoped that their sickness will disappear without medical assistance. - Public Health Budget, percentage of GDP (Table 5, preliminary data): - 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 - 1,1 0.9 0,86 0,9 0,93 0,9 - Pilot reforms: - Introduction of separate packages of guaranteed free services and pay services improved conditions in pilot institutions: quality of services, salaries, patient flows increased and illegal payments largely stopped. - Main challenges to sector-wide rollout: outdated organizational structure and appropriations mechanisms. - GOT committed to appropriations reforms introducing guaranteed free services, per-capita funding, increased appropriations for primary healthcare, and introduction of pay services; GOT is updating the Concept Paper for Reforms in the Healthcare Sector and translating measures into specific project proposals. - PHC and Reproductive Health: - Fifteen doctors and 22 nurses for oblast-level PHC training centers in Soghd and Khatlon were trained at the National PHC Training Center in Dushanbe. - GOT adopted a 10-year strategic plan for reproductive healthcare and implemented strategies, laws, and presidential decrees. - MOH conducted information events on HIV/AIDS and gender issues; percentage of women of fertile age having access to contraceptives increased by 3.2 percent to 23.3 percent in 2004. - Distribution of Medications and Other Reforms: - GOT strengthened controls over quality and distribution of pharmaceuticals and improved coordination between public acquisitions and donor assistance. - A national center for centralized public acquisitions of medications was established with assistance of ADB and Pharmaciens Sans Frontiers. - Public acquisitions in 2004 were competitive and targeted essential drugs; MOH established a commission to control horizontal acquisitions and is drafting a plan to develop a national pharmaceutical industry. - MOH developing a concept paper for reforms in medical education and a strategy to reform hospital services. - Donor Support: - AKDN estimated 23 international and 84 national NGOs were involved in community-level healthcare projects in 2004. - Donors supporting investment projects included WB, ADB, government of Switzerland, WHO, UNICEF and USAID. - GOT prefers integrating many donor-supported projects into a more limited number of large-scale and long-term projects for sustainability. ### Education (5.2) - Policy and Funding: - Lack of funding remained a key challenge throughout 2004. - 2005 education budget increased by SM88.8 million compared to 2004, but levels remain inadequate. - A large share of 2004 education expenditures was supported by foreign donors and households. - Public Education Budget, Percentage of GDP (Table 6, preliminary data): - 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 - 2,1 2,3 2,5 2,6 2,8 2,7 - Reforms: - GOT initiated a five-year plan of education reforms and adopted the Law on Education. - Documents provided for an increase of academic pay scales by up to 25 percent and allowed introduction of per capita financing schemes in a limited number of pilot secondary schools. - Community Role: - Communities encouraged to increase role in education administration; PTAs expanded roles beyond fundraising to small-scale infrastructure projects and policing children’s rights. - PTAs generally successful but coverage limited to pilots supported by WB, ADB, OSI, UNICEF, and Care International in Dushanbe, Khujand, and a few rayons. - Infrastructure: - MOE estimated secondary school equipment needs as: 153.7 thousand sets of school desks and chairs, 66.8 thousand chairs, 9.9 thousand teacher desks, 29.7 thousand cabinets, and 9.9 thousand boards — estimates not based on meaningful inventory or benchmarks. - Textbook shortages persisted despite donor-sponsored acquisition of 1.5 million copies; development of new textbooks delayed; minority Russian and Uzbek schools continued using old Soviet-era or foreign textbooks; many schools introduced payments for textbook use. - Teacher and Vocational Training: - Uneven progress: institutes in Dushanbe and Khorog (supported by Soros Foundation and AKDN) were in better condition than institutes in Khujand, Kulyab, and Kourgan-Tyube which rely entirely on public funding. - GOT adopted Law on Vocational Training, a concept paper on vocational training reforms, and national standards on vocational training; MLSP implementing a Vocational Training Reform Project. ### Social Protection (5.3) - Policy and Funding: - Social protection policy did not change dramatically since PRSP adoption; many reforms were treated as cross-cutting issues and donor-supported attempts lacked clear direction and remained incomplete. - In 2004 social protection spending amounted to 2 percent of the GDP and 16.3 percent of the state budget. - The latter rate will be increased to 17.7 percent of the GDP in 2005. - This level of funding does not fulfill requirements of the unreformed system. - Vulnerable Groups: - Condition of children, particularly street children, warrants special concern. - GOT’s Commission on Children’s Rights provides coordination but roles and authority among agencies remain ambiguous. - Society and Children’s Rights (a Tajik NGO) estimated there may have been as many of 3,000 children on the streets of Dushanbe in 2002. - CCPs (Compensatory Cash Payments): - CCP targeting schoolchildren in 2004: 323,558 individuals received a total of SM7.76 million. - Level of funding insufficient; MLSP revising criteria for defining poverty-affected households to improve targeting. - A total of 545,545 households received compensations for electricity consumption amounting to SM11,225 thousand in 2004. - A total of 417,316 households received compensation for gas consumption of SM8,436.3 thousand in 2004. - Jobs and Labor Migration: - More than 82.5 thousand new jobs were created in 2004; rate of job creation approximately equal to rate of new entries into the job market from demographic trends. - Of 38,827 officially registered unemployed, only 5,163 received unemployment benefits in 2004 due to limited funding. - Only 6,047 unemployed participated in career retraining programs. - Public works program involved 22,939 individuals. - MLSP estimates 420.6 thousand people migrated abroad in 2004; of them 2,349 were supported through official channels, a drop of 9,833 compared to the previous year. - Introduction of foreign travel passports had no negative impact on migration flows; of 78.6 thousand passport applications received in 2004, 63.4 thousand were satisfied by the end of the year. - Labor Conditions and Public Salaries: - MLSP’s State Labor Inspection regional divisions conducted regional seminars, a 12-day course on labor conditions and more than 3,000 inspections in 2004. - Most labor standards and regulations remained outdated; progress on new regulations was slow. - Public salaries, student loans and retirement benefits were increased on the average by 25 percent. - Average salary in 2004 amounted to SM60.79, a 37 percent increase from 2003. - Average pension in 2004 amounted to SM15.9, a 22 percent increase from 2003. - Public salary scale was increased between 8 and 27 percent depending on rank. - Retirement Benefits: - System remained poorly targeted and financially unsustainable. - MLSP developing a new system of accrual-based individual retirement accounts subject to indexation. - Due to younger-generation bias in Tajikistan’s demographic development (More than 63 percent of the population is aged 15-59), transition to the new system is expected to be relatively straightforward. - Challenge: accounting for informal income. - During transition, GOT will operate a mixed system involving elements of old and new systems requiring public appropriations of SM42 million per year. - Recipients of Retirement and Social Benefits (Table 7): - Types of Pensions — Numbers — Average Size of Pensions - Labor — 473 273 — 16,9 - Social — 60 920 — 6,37 - In absence of effective mechanisms for social protection of invalids, elderly, and orphans, several government agencies sponsor institutions serving these vulnerable groups — sustainability of proxy measures is uncertain. ### Labor Market and Employment (6) - Despite net growth of employed citizens by over 100 thousand in 2004 and improvements in labor legislation, employment policy remained underdeveloped. - GOT adopted laws On Promoting Employment and On Unions of Employers; new regulatory documents are being developed. - Labor market monitoring is weak; SEC lacked capacity to reach all unemployed. - SEC Employment Centers organized 193 vacancy fairs in 2004 involving 2,311 agencies and private companies (a 5.7 percent increase in supply-side participation vs 2003). - Participants offered 39,853 vacancies, 13.9 percent more than in 2003. - Outcomes of fairs: 3,701 individuals received employment offers; 2,951 joined paid public works programs; 1,435 enrolled in vocational training programs. - Non-government and informal employment agencies supplemented SEC efforts; local authorities establishing volunteer employment coordination committees. - Unregulated market of mardikors continued expanding. - Women’s Labor Markets opened in Kourgan-Tyube and Khorog involving over a thousand individuals who accessed employment, public works, vocational training, or microcredit. ### Private Sector Development (7) - Business Climate: - Surveys suggest number of entrepreneurs is growing; legal entities employing 9 or less are recovering after sharp drops in 1999 and 2000; number of patent entrepreneurs has almost doubled since 1999. - Chart data (1999–2004): - Legal entities employing 8 or less: 1575 1342 1181 1215 1323 1483 - Patent entrepreneurs: 50,7 62,2 70,3 71,3 88,3 n.a. - IFC 2003 survey: most SMEs view business climate as difficult; administrative requirements (licensing, certification, standardization, import-export documentation and taxes) are complex and public agencies are in poor condition. - Only 42 percent kept track of inspections and controls; only 14 percent had a good understanding of business laws; few used computer technology or business support services. - Policy: - GOT’s private sector policy focused on legislative development and promotion of micro-credit resources. - Draft law On the State Control of Entrepreneurship aims to simplify and streamline state controls. - Concept on the Development of Entrepreneurship to 2015 will inform a Strategy on Entrepreneurship. - Laws are often poorly explained and lack effective implementation; business support structures are poorly known and lack meaningful financial assistance. - Two-thirds of entrepreneurs surveyed by IFC did not know about the State Agency for the Support of Entrepreneurship. - Micro-credit and Knowledge Gap: - Micro-credit agencies established in several rayons; in 2004, 354 individuals received loans totaling SM141.6 thousand. - Dynamics of the private sector are not well understood; GOT has not conducted meaningful research; donor studies are random and poorly publicized. - General belief: economic liberalization and incentives have generated little indigenous private investment. *Source: 2004 Annual Progress Report (section text provided).* ### 7.2 Privatization ### 7.2 Privatization ### Privatization activity in 2004 - Privatization continued in 2004 with the sale of 110 medium and large enterprises. - The proceeds from this sale exceeded the planned amount by 5.3 times. - As of the end of 2004, 8037 or 90 percent of all state enterprises subject to privatization became private. - The State Property Committee continued to work with sectoral ministries on developing privatization plans. ### Table 8 — Privatization in 2004 (summary) - Small Enterprises privatized: 7348 - Medium and Large Enterprises privatized: 689 - Small Enterprises to be privatized: 32 - Medium and Large Enterprises to be privatized: 349 ### Status of privatized enterprises - In 2004, 54.2 percent of privatized enterprises increased their staff and salaries. - Post-Privatization regional functioning (Table 9): - Dushanbe: Total Privatized Enterprises 1669; Functioning Privatized Enterprises 1567; Percent 93,8 - Khatlon Oblast: Total 2447; Functioning 1204; Percent 49,2 - Sogd Oblast: Total 2304; Functioning 1755; Percent 76,1 - GBAO: Total 196; Functioning 97; Percent 49,4 - RRS: Total 1320; Functioning 943; Percent 71,4 - Republic: Total 7973; Functioning 5566; Percent 69,8 ### Implication - Privatization is broadly advanced (90 percent of targeted enterprises privatized), but regional disparities in functioning privatized enterprises remain large (from 49,2 percent to 93,8 percent). ### Policy and implementation notes - The State Property Committee is coordinating with sector ministries to develop privatization plans. - Improvement in enterprise performance (staff and salary increases) is reported for a majority (54.2 percent) of privatized firms in 2004. --- ### 7.3 Land Reform ### Farm restructuring and privatization (2004) - Forty-five large farms were restructured into 1524 smaller entities of different types. - Of these, 856 were dekhan farms with a total area of 19,327 hectares of arable land. - Land titles were issued to 45,232 farmers. - Three out of the 156 specialized breeding and seed-growing farms included into the 2004-2015 plan were restructured. ### Cumulative progress since 2002 - Since 2002, 185 large farms were restructured into 2,670 dekhan farms. - A total of 4,681.1 hectares of land or 60.1 percent of all arable lands have become private. ### Plans - Plans for 2005 include the restructuring of the remaining 40 large farms and restructuring of the 22 breeding farms. ### Agricultural performance and productivity - The first stage of reforms is generating limited recovery. - Total agricultural output in 2004 was SM2,259.9 thousand, an 11.3 percent increase from 2003. - This rate of recovery is deemed too low to satisfy food security requirements of Tajikistan. - Productivity remains a serious concern; centralized acquisitions of seeds are expected to help raise it. - Two thousand metric tons of seeds were imported in 2004 for the 2005 planting season. - The GOT plans to increase Tajikistan’s self-reliance by establishing 65 new seed-growing farms. ### Farming organization share (Chart 7, 2004) - Collective farming: 24% - Dekhan farms: 22% - Single-owner farms: 54% ### Awareness, training, and information dissemination - Oxfam identifies limited knowledge of land reform and limited access to agricultural inputs, technology, credit, and markets as key constraints to rural income growth; lack of information is highlighted as the most serious. - GOT actions in 2004: - SECs organized 41 TV and 35 radio programs on land reform. - Distributed 7,000 copies of the law On Dekhan Farms, 10,000 legislative booklets, and 18,000 copies of the title Collection of Laws on Land. - NCAE trained 8,000 managers, specialists and farmers in 2004 and more than 12,000 in the past two years. - Donor support for information and training includes USAID, UNDP, Oxfam and other international organizations. ### Agricultural debt - Cotton-related and other agricultural debt remains a heavy burden. - ADB estimates as of January 1, 2004 total agricultural debt was USD180 million. - Of this amount: USD115 million were seasonal debts, USD15 were debts that can be repaid in the next three years, and USD50 were bad debts. - The GOT is planning to adopt a strategy to address agricultural debt. ### Other issues - Donor-supported seminars on plant protection and quarantine brought little change to Tajikistan’s status concerning plant diseases. - Lack of funds prevents re-equipment of old quarantine laboratories and entry into the European and International Convention on Quarantine and Plant Protection. --- ### 7.4 Private Sector Investments ### Strategy and instruments - GOT’s strategy focused primarily on legislative development and promotion of micro-credit programs offered through EBRD, IFC, and private foundations and NGOs such as the AKDN. ### Monitoring and evaluation gap - Official sources do not provide any comprehensive evaluations of the investment environment. --- ### 8 Infrastructure Rehabilitation (selected highlights) ### Communications - Broken telephone circuits between ten villages in GBAO and Soghd Oblast and between 11 villages in the RRS were restored. - Radio-telephone circuits were established in 11 villages. - Across Tajikistan, 1612 broken wired radio accounts and 620 telephone accounts were restored. - All telephone switchboards in Dushanbe and a number of switchboards in nine other towns were digitized. - Internet facilities became available in Khorog, Vakhdat, Tursunzade, Hissar, Istravshan, Nourek, Dangara, Yavan, and Roudaki. - Nineteen satellite TV transmitters were established in the Soghd oblasts, two in Khatlon and 41 in the RRS. - Rehabilitation work on seventy-four transmitters in GBAO will soon allow nation-wide coverage of TV Tajikistan. ### Roads - Restoration of the Dushanbe-Kourgan-Tyube-Koulyab proceeded as planned with a delivery rate of 62 percent of the total project cost of USD26.8 million. - Delivery rates on other projects: - USD31.75 million Shkev-Zigar highway rehabilitation project: 57 percent. - USD11.4 million Shagon-Zigar highway rehabilitation project: 82.percent - Lack of financing, low capacity, and natural disasters are slowing the Anzob tunnel project. ### Energy - Of the four planned power lines, only the 53km Kanibadam-Batken was put into operation in 2004. ### Water and irrigation - Irrigation projects covered 15,408 hectares; total cost SM2,117 million financed by state budget, donor assistance and local budgets. - Drinking water projects financed through community contributions; total cost in 2004 was SM780 million. ### Health infrastructure - One hundred and seventy-two healthcare providers were built or restored and 33 sanitary-epidemiological laboratories established with ADB funding. - Three family medicine centers, two polyclinics, and four rural health centers were built and equipped with vehicles with WB funding. - Twenty-one additional objects are in the finishing phase. - Institute of Obstetrics, Gynecology, and Pediatrics was restored with funding provided by the Saudi Fund and the Reserve Fund of the President. - Several hospitals were built and restored with funding from the state budget. ### Social sector infrastructure - Twelve boarding houses for invalids, elderly, and orphans were rehabilitated at a total cost of SM1.09 million, or 51.8 percent more than in 2003. --- ### 9 Environment Protection ### Institutional focus and capacity building - GOT policy continued to focus on institutional and legislative development. - SCEP was augmented with units for environmental monitoring and standardization, usage of environmental resources, environmental information, and biodiversity. - ADB will support establishment of a Center for Environment Policy and Information affiliated to SCEP in 2005. - New standards and regulations will allow economic estimates of environmental impacts. ### Implementation and enforcement - SCEP conducted environmental audits at 2,630 companies and agencies resulting in 4,663 directives to implement operational changes; 2,564 of these directives were implemented. - Fines of SM24,194 were levied against 1,096 individuals. - Sixteen claims of environmental damage were made against private agencies. ### Reforestation and programs - SM172 thousand Tree-Planting Program for the Karategin and Zekhmatabad rayons of Dushanbe is supported by the state budget. ### Challenges - Poor public knowledge of environmental issues and legislation. - Low capacity of environmental agencies. - Poverty-driven, environment-hostile actions. - Poor financing prevents implementation of projects such as power generation based on biological waste. - Donor assistance (UNDP, etc.) will finance projects such as the Hissar Ridge Biodiversity project in 2005. - Eco-tourism development is promoted as a means to generate funding; Dushanbe hosted the first Tourism Faire in 2004 at which 25 tourist programs were publicised. --- ### 10 PRSP Monitoring ### Overall assessment - Systematic and transparent monitoring is a key requirement for PRSP implementation. - Institutional framework for PRSP monitoring remains inadequate. - Both primary stakeholders—the GOT and civil society—lack capacity to participate effectively in monitoring activities. - PRSP ECG and RMCs are yet unproven institutional resources. ### Government capacity - Most GOT agencies lack capacity due to poor organization and ineffective information flows; many have difficulty understanding PRSP objectives. - Local governments are the weakest and were seldom involved in PRSP-related activities. - PRSP MU lacks capacity to serve as an overall coordinator within the GOT. ### Civil society capacity - NGOs proliferated and many engage in sectoral monitoring funded by donors; some form large networks. - PRSP monitoring requires specialized skills few NGOs possess. - Most sustainable NGOs with capacity are concentrated in Dushanbe and Khujand. - NGOs rely on donor funding and often reflect donors’ agendas more than constituencies’. ### PRSP ECG and RMCs - PRSP ECG created by donors, GOT agencies and NGOs to carry out regional and sectoral dialogues; initial meetings yielded positive results but ECG has yet to prove itself. - GOT proposes establishing PRSP RMCs as a nationwide monitoring network drawing on stakeholders, communities and donor resources. ### Indicators and data - Poor data collection capacity and inconsistencies between sectoral agencies and SCS limit usability of official statistics. - Proposed monitoring indicators were revised multiple times; final list not yet approved by all stakeholders. - Last version of the list (Annex 1) was published for general discussion in news media. ### Public awareness and feedback - Law on State Statistics regulates interagency data flows via mandatory reporting forms and timetables; most agencies limit feedback to these requirements. - MOE has initiated independent surveys and shared results with other agencies, but this practice is largely random. - GOT receives no PRSP-related feedback from civil society other than occasional press-releases and no direct feedback from the public. ### GOT plan to strengthen public awareness and feedback - Development of a General Public Awareness and Feedback Strategy. - Establish a mechanism for collecting PRSP-related feedback consisting of: - provisions for improved sharing of information on PRSP results between GOT and donor partners (PRSP MU could act as link), - provisions for establishing a network of PRSP RMCs. - PRS TF provides partial support; a public awareness and feedback plan was developed and is currently being implemented by the PRSP TF, but grant funding covers only part of the budget envisaged by this plan. --- ### 11 PRSP Monitoring and Implementation Partners (high-level roles & gaps) ### Parliament - Role: provide legislative sanction for state budget and oversee executive performance. - Current status: Legislature not proactive; members lack in-depth knowledge of PRSP. - GOT proposals to enhance parliamentary participation: - Include two members of Parliament in the PRSP ECG. - Establish a permanent Poverty Reduction Policy Committee in Parliament. - Provide training, consultative meetings and seminars for Members of Parliament on PRSP and poverty reduction policy. - In 2005, PRSTF budgeted USD50,000 for poverty reduction policy capacity-building events within Parliament and media community. ### Media - As of October 1, 2004: 249 periodicals, 18 radio stations, 23 TV stations and 17 representative offices of foreign media organizations registered. - Media ownership: more than half of print and radio press is privately-owned. - Reporters Without Borders’ Press Freedom Index ranks Tajik media 95th on a scale of 167, most liberal in Central Asia. - Table 10 — Mass media organizations: - Newspapers total number: 186 (State-Owned 89; Private 97) - Magazines total number: 63 (State-Owned 27; Private 36) - Information agencies total number: 10 (State-Owned 1; Private 9) - Publishers total number: 68 (State-Owned 9; Private 59) - Constraints: poor distribution outside major cities, no daily periodicals (only weekly), obsolete radio and TV equipment, variable quality of reporting, limited role in PRSP monitoring. ### Civil society and NGOs - NGOs provide frontline public services and support PRSP, have wide spatial and sectoral coverage and relationships with constituencies. - Limitations: reliance on donor funding, weak organizational and financial capacity, programs reflect donor agendas. - Other organizations (political parties, trade unions, community-based organizations, mahallas) are relevant but generally lack capacity for effective implementation or monitoring. ### Donor community - Donors and GOT seek to enhance donor assistance effectiveness; integration of credit resources into budgetary process and treasury system has progressed. - Some donors specialize in separate areas, but overall coordination remains low. - Significant differences persist between donors and GOT regarding priorities and approaches; many donors hesitate to conduct monitoring jointly with GOT. *Source: _cr0601 - 7.2 Privatization, 2004 Annual Progress Report* ### 12.1 The MDGs ### 12.1 The MDGs ### MDGs: objectives and national priority - The MDGs announced at the Millennium Summit in September 2000 established clear objectives for poverty reduction, hunger, disease incidence, illiteracy, environmental degradation, and gender discrimination. - The GOT regards the MDGs as priority objectives for poverty reduction and has worked to mainstream them into its national policy framework. - The key benchmarks of the PRSP are closely related to the MDGs. ### GOT participation in MDG assessment - Joint GOT-UN working groups in the areas of education, health, gender, water supply and sanitation, food security and infrastructure are helping review progress, discuss models and scenarios, and evaluate resource requirements. - The assessment is expected to provide important input for poverty reduction policy framework revision. ### Estimated resource requirements for achieving key MDGs (UN MDG team / Millennium Project) - Per capita funding required: USD133.55 - Food security sector: USD67 - Health: USD42 - Clean water and sanitation: USD12 - Education: USD20 - Health (appears duplicated/minor item): USD1.3 - Policy question: to what extent fiscal policy, structural, public administration, and governance reforms will contribute to achieving this level of funding and establishing a system for rational distribution of resources. ### Strategic Framework Revision: rationale and approach - Rationale: - Strategy duplication from concurrent implementation of the PRSP, MDGs, SEDP2015 and numerous sectoral strategies is taxing GOT’s resources and introducing ambiguity into programmatic planning. - GOT proposes to revise and consolidate these documents into one straightforward strategy to lay the basis for a System of National Development. - Presidential action: - In conformity with this, according to the President’s Decree a National Coordination Council was established to develop National Development Strategy. - The Council is headed by the Prime Minister of Tajikistan and comprises officials from ministries and agencies as well as from international institutions. - 12 sectoral working groups have started working within the frame of ministries and agencies under this Council. - Approach to policy development and implementation: - Adopt a vertical process for policy development and implementation, supported by medium-term budgetary planning and yearly budget appropriations. - Ensure horizontal coordination across sectors and with donor agents to align policy, strategy, and programmatic/operational planning. ### Institutional arrangements for the new strategic framework - National Council - Proposed to conduct quarterly consultations and provide general oversight for development of the new strategic framework. - Composition: key representatives of the GOT, private sector, and civil society. - Proposed chair: President of Tajikistan; incorporate President’s current Public Council. - Tasks: take over Coordination Group for the National Strategy of Sustainable Development, Coordination Group for the Medium-Term Strategy of National Development, and the Presidential Working Group for Public Administration Reform. - Secretariat - Supported by the restructured Executive Staff of the President. - Initially to coordinate daily development of the new strategic framework and oversee implementation; subsequently to take charge of overall reform processes including public administration. - Secretariat staff to provide technical support; will have authority to plan, implement and veto actions undertaken by sectoral agencies that violate objectives in the new strategic framework. - Establishing the Secretariat is expected to streamline institutional framework and lead to disbanding most existing governmental councils, commissions, and working groups. - Expert Groups - Secretariat to be supported by working groups providing analytical input and technical expertise for development of the new strategic framework and designing monitoring and evaluation policy. - Working groups could be supported by MDG assessment working groups and the PRSTF project. ### New Strategic Framework Development: objectives, issues, and steps - Identified shortfalls in current strategic framework: - The PRSP, SEDP2015, PIP, yearly state budget and sectoral strategies follow dissimilar priorities, objectives and planning processes. - Strategic planning does not follow a vertical process. - Government agencies at national and lower levels lack analytical capacity for effective policy development and implementation. - Implementation of state policy is not supported by an effective institutional basis. - Development responsibilities and coordination: - New strategy to be developed by a cross-sectoral political agency and, after public scrutiny, passed by Parliament. - GOT to revise all existing general and sectoral strategies to align with the new strategy. - Sectoral agencies to revise programmatic and operational planning to accord with the new strategic framework. - The MOET will coordinate the process via inter-agency consultations. - The MOF will work to ensure medium-term measures in the revised strategic framework are financially supported through medium-term budgetary planning, the PIP and yearly budget appropriations. ### Draft timetable (selected items and targets) - 1. National Council established - Purpose: General coordination and oversight - Target date: June 2005 - Indicator: Presidential Decree - Expected result: Balanced developmental policy based on national interests - 2. First meeting conducted, procedures established - Target date: End of July 2005 - Indicator: Approval of the National Council’s operating procedure - Expected result: Sustainable operation of the National Council - 3. National Council Secretariat established - Target date: Early August 2005 - Indicator: Presidential Decree - 4. Public roundtable on systematized policy-making process - Target date: July 2005 - Indicator: Consensus - Expected result: A single approach will streamline strategic planning and eliminate duplication - 5. Consultations with donor community partners - Target date: July 2005 - Indicator: Expert groups created - Expected result: Strategy development is accelerated - 6. Existing strategic framework reviewed; establishment of linkages between existing objectives and priorities - Target date: July-September 2005 - Activity: Grouping and sorting information by long-term objectives, implementation mechanisms, and means of achievement - 8. Sectoral MDG groups merged with expert groups - Target date: July 2005 - Indicator: Memorandum of Understanding - Expected result: Expert groups are created, strategy development is accelerated - 9. Approaches and TOR for drafting the new strategic framework agreed on - Target date: August 2005 - Indicator: TORs approved - Expected result: Clear direction for developers of the new strategic framework - 10. Monitoring group subordinated to the Secretariat - Target date: September 2005 - Expected result: Secretariat receives feedback - 11. Concept Note on the new strategic framework drafted and presented to September Summit - Target date: September 2005 - Indicator: Presentation - Expected result: Inform the international community about Tajikistan’s objectives ### Selected PRSP / MDG-related statistics and indicators (as presented) - GDP per capita, USD: 236.7 (2003); 309.2 (2004); 178.2 (1999); 1050 (1990); 273 (i) 2373iii 308iii 149iii - Percentage of population below USD2.15$ PPP per day: 64ii (1990); 81ii (1999) - Percentage of population below USD1.08 per day: 18ii (1990); 36ii (1999) - Percentage of able-bodied population employed: 51.7 (2003); 55.6 (1999) - GDP change in real terms, percent: 110.2; 110.6; 103.7; 98.4iv - Inflation, percent: 13.7 (2004); 5.7 (2003); 26.3 (1999) - Foreign debt, percentage of GDP: 69.4iii; 42.2iii; 95.9iii - Foreign debt service, percentage of total commodity and service exports: 4.4iii; 4.0iii; 6.5iii - Loans disbursed by the banking sector, percentage of GDP: 3.3 (2004); 7.4 (2003); 3.6 (1999) - Private sector share of GDP, percent: 39.1v; 39.8v; 29.3 - State budget revenues, percentage of GDP: 17.3 (2003); 16.7 (2004); 18.6 (1999); 46.8 (1990); 17.9iii; 15.8iii - State budget, percentage of GDP: 16.2 (2004); 17.6 (2003); 17.6 (1999); 43.4 (1990); 18.7iii; 21.0iii - Public health expenditures in the state budget, percentage of GDP: 0.9 (2004); 0.9 (2003); 1.0 (1999); 4.8 (1990) - Public education expenditures in the state budget, percentage of GDP: 2.41 (2004); 2.7 (2003); 2,1 (1999); 10,4 (1990); 3.0iii - Social protection expenditures in the state budget, percentage of GDP: 0.5 (2004); 0.5 (2003); 0.2 (1999); 2.8iii; 3.0iii - Agricultural sector expenditures in the state budget, percentage of GDP: 0.5 (2004); 0.5 (2003); 1.2iii; 1.2iii; 0.6iii - Irrigation expenditures, percentage of GDP: 0.2 (2004); 0.1 (2003); 0.65iii; 0.52iii; 0.5iii - Infrastructure rehabilitation and development expenditures, percentage of GDP: 1.2 (2004); 1.3 (2003); 2.3iii; 3.3iii; 1.2iii - Average salary in the public service as percentage of average salary in the private sector: 146.9; 64.5 - Unemployment, percent: 2.4 (2004); 2.2 (2003); 3.0 (1999) - Household income, Somoni per one member of the household: 35.38 (2003); 44.32 (2004) - Average salary in the public service: 44.47 (2003); 60.79vi (2004); 11.61 (1999) - Ratio of the number of employed population to one retired: 3.53 (2003); 3.59vi (2004); 3.10 (1999); 2.2 (1990) - Average monthly pension, Somoni: 13.07 (2003); 16.92 (2004); 3.53 (1999); 98.7vii; 20.15iii; 26.7iii - Number of disabled receiving benefits, thousand: 78.2 (2003); 79.1 (2004); 67.8 (1999); 48.0 (1990) - Literacy by sex (aggregate): m-97.4viii; f-93,2viii; ∑-95,3viii - Enrollment grades 1-4, by sex: 52.0; 51.8; 53.2; M100ix f95ix - Completion of grades 1-4, percent: 100,2; 100,3; 104,6; 90,6; M-95viii F-93.1viii ∑-94,2viii - Enrollment in grades 5-9, percent by sex: 91.4 99.2; 102.7 101.1; 121.2; 102.0; m-90ix f-74ix - Students/teacher ratio: 16 (2003); 17 (2004); 15 (1999); 14 (1990) - Maternal mortality, per 100,000 live-births: 36.5 (2003); 53.0 (1999); 42.9 (1990); 131viii; 100ix - Infant mortality, per 100,000 live-births: 19.4; 89.04; 92.5; 89.4 - Mortality under 5 years of age, per 100,000: 20.5; 65.0; 1185; 1264 - Prevalence of underweight children under 5 years of age: 13,34 - Number of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption: 3148 (survey 2003); 2547 (1999) - Percentage of birth attended by trained medical personnel: 71.4 (2003); 66.6 (1999) - Year-old children vaccinated: 96.3 (2003); 96.0 (2004); 98.7 (1999); 86.8iv; 82ix; 96x - HIV/AID prevalence, per 100,000 population: 119/1; 317/1; 40ix - Tuberculosis prevalence, 100,000 population: 66.5 (2004); 66.6 (2003); 42.1 (1999); 44.4 - Malaria prevalence, per 100,000 population: 71.6 (2004); 48.9 (2003); 222.0 (1999); 81.7iii; 53.4iii - Typhoid prevalence, per 100,000 population: 3148 (2004); 2547 (2003); 7431 (1999); 2537 - Measles prevalence, per 100,000 population: 32.9; 0.3; 3; 118x - Average life expectancy at birth, by sex: m-64.3iii; f-69.7iii - Percentage of all employment involved in agriculture: 67.6 (2003); 64.4 (1999) - Average salary in agriculture: 27 (2003); 34.96 (2004); 5.38 (1999) - Revenues from privatization as percentage of total revenues in the state budget: 2.8 (2003); 3.91 (2004) - Number of telephone lines per 100 residents: 3.65 (2003); 3.83 (2004); 3.51 (1999) - Number of mobile telephone accounts per 100 residents: 0.82 (2003); 2.42 (2004) - Number of Internet users per 1,000 residents: 0.1 (2003); 0.4 (2004) - Percentage of population having reliable access to drinking water, urban and rural: U-93 R-47 ∑-58 (2002); U-92,9 R-46,9 ∑-56,9 - Production of power per capita, kW-Hr: 2555,4 (2003); 2523,7 (2004); 2293,77 (1999) - Number of tourists, including foreign tourists: 4500iii *Source: Tajikistan PRSP Progress Report 2004, Annexes (sections 12.1–12.2 and associated tables).* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/_cr0601.pdf_