## The Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy (GPRS II) for the period 2006–09

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---

### Overview and staff assessment
- Builds on lessons from the 2003–05 GPRS I and the 2004 Annual Progress Report (APR) of GPRS I.
- Prepared through extensive national and district consultations involving Parliament, Government, private sector, think tanks, development partners, trade unions, and civil society organizations.
- Submitted to Parliament in October 2005 and presented to a Consultative Group meeting in Accra in November 2005; Consultative Group helped develop a more prioritized Results Matrix.
- Key goal: acceleration of growth to enable Ghana to achieve middle income level by 2015.
- Anchored on three strategic pillars: private sector competitiveness, human resource development, and good governance and civic responsibility.
- Staff advice and critiques:
  - Welcome strengthened focus on growth and structural transformation.
  - Recommend translating broad policy framework into time-bound, monitorable actions and results with an appropriate pro-poor focus.
  - Suggest embedding GPRS II into annual budget preparation and the medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF).
  - Recommend improved prioritization, sequencing, and results orientation to be reflected in upcoming APRs.

### Poverty trends
- Reported change in poverty incidence: from around 42 percent in 1997 to 35 percent in 2003.
- Drivers of poverty reduction during 1997–2003: acceleration in economic growth and reduction in inequality; substantial gains associated with movement from rural to urban areas.
- Persistent disparities:
  - Poverty remains predominantly rural and higher in Northern, Upper West, and Upper East regions.
  - Coastal belt relatively better off than the savanna, with pockets of poverty in coastal areas.
  - Poverty less prevalent in more educated households, families involved in activities other than agriculture, and smaller families.
  - Poverty more prevalent among families headed by someone unemployed, those in unpaid/domestic activities, and families that do not possess land.
- Staffs’ view and recommendations:
  - Concur that Ghana is very likely to halve the poverty rate by 2015, and recommend continued focus on reducing regional and socioeconomic disparities.
  - GPRS II presents a limited poverty diagnostic and underuses 2003 CWIQ, 2003 Ghana Demographic Health Survey, and Poverty and Social Impact Assessments.
  - Geographic targeting opportunities not fully exploited despite availability of poverty, education, and health maps.
  - Recommend using GLSS 5 to analyze recent trends and determinants of national and regional poverty and inequality; GLSS 5 preliminary results expected in December 2006.
  - Urge collaborative analytical work by government and development partners.

### Macroeconomic policies
- Macroeconomic performance under GPRS I (2003–05):
  - Growth averaged 5.6 percent, rising from 4 percent a year during 2000–02.
  - End-period inflation nearly halved to 14.3 percent from an average of 24.3 percent during 2000–02.
  - The cedi stabilized against the U.S. dollar; gross official international reserves were built up.
  - Goal of halving the stock of government domestic debt relative to GDP was achieved.
  - Domestically-financed public spending on pro-poor basic services increased from 4.8 percent of GDP in 2002 to 8.2 percent in 2005.
- GPRS II macro objectives:
  - Accelerate private sector-led growth to double the size of the economy within the next decade.
  - Specific goals for real growth in agriculture, industry, and services.
  - Maintain macroeconomic stability with stable exchange rate, single digit-inflation and low interest rates.
- Staffs’ recommendations and observations:
  - Growth assumptions deemed achievable, but strategy lacks a comprehensive macroeconomic framework (monetary policy stance, balance of payments outlook) consistent with medium-term fiscal framework and growth assumptions.
  - Greater clarity needed on the link between GPRS II, MTEF, and annual budgets in terms of allocation of funds.
  - Costing of GPRS II objectives and activities should be clearly linked to the MTEF and annual budgets; staff recommend adopting this approach starting with the budget for 2007.
  - High-level Government-World Bank consultation identified priorities: maintaining a stable and competitive exchange rate; improving the business environment; enhancing provision of infrastructure services; enhancing efficiency in the use of public resources; strengthening link between public sector wages and productivity.
- Financing gap and debt/aid considerations:
  - Authorities expect an overall funding gap of US$1.8 billion for the GPRS II to be filled by:
    - measures to cut non-priority expenses and create space for essential expenditure;
    - debt cancellation (including the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative);
    - scaling up of concessional assistance, including disbursements under the U.S. Millennium Challenge Account;
    - accessing international capital markets.
  - Staffs view fiscal framework as consistent with maintaining macroeconomic stability, but recommend that as new resources become available the macroeconomic framework be re-designed to ensure stability and efficient, transparent use.
  - GPRS II should have set out specific policies to ensure long-term debt sustainability, strengthen debt management capacity, improve expenditure composition to create fiscal space for pro-poor and pro-growth spending, prioritize expenditure via cost-benefit analysis for investment projects, and include all envisaged medium-term public investment (including public enterprises) in costing.

### Strategic pillars

- A. Private Sector Competitiveness
  - Emphasis on private sector-led growth to broaden economic base and achieve structural transformation for export expansion and diversification.
  - Observed structural issues:
    - Economic structure remains virtually stagnant; share of agriculture, industry, and exports broadly unchanged.
    - Relative skills of labor force have not improved significantly.
  - Key constraints and recommended actions:
    - Modernize agriculture and increase productivity; strengthen infrastructure support services.
    - Accelerate land administration reform to facilitate use of land as collateral (slow progress reported in 2004 APR).
    - Lower transaction costs by:
      - reducing time to register property and to start new businesses (time to start new business declined from 129 days in 2002 to 81 days by end-2005; still high compared to about 38 days in South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda);
      - strengthening the judiciary for commercial dispute resolution;
      - expediting export and import procedures.
    - Shift more resources to operations and maintenance of infrastructure services, ensure financial viability of infrastructure enterprises, and actively leverage private sector investment.
    - Use findings from Investment Climate Assessment, Doing Business Survey 2005, IFC and MIGA activities, and African Enterprise Benchmarking as platform for progress.
  - Financial sector issues:
    - Although commercial bank lending rates are falling, interest rate spreads remain very high.
    - Financial intermediation (ratio of banking assets to GDP) remains low compared to other sub-Saharan African countries.
    - Policies under the Financial Sector Strategic Plan for strengthening the banking sector should be pursued.
    - Suggested priorities: establish environment for sound micro-credit to the poor, pass legislation for credit rating agencies, maintain fiscal anchor aimed at reducing public domestic debt.
    - Monetary policy can contribute to financial stability; recommend sequencing changes in monetary policy instruments to facilitate liquidity management per recent IMF technical assistance.
  - Environment and natural resources:
    - Recent estimates of natural resource depletion point to annual losses equivalent to about 4.5 percent of GDP.
    - Staffs urge identification of measures from Country Environment Analysis to address failures in land, forestry, mining and urban environment.
    - Suggested measures include strengthening market incentives and local communities’ role in resource management and increasing capacity of regulatory agencies to enforce environmental legislation.

- B. Human Resource Development
  - Recent progress:
    - Gross primary enrollment rates rose to 87 percent by mid-2005 from 81 percent two years earlier.
    - Gender parity index narrowing, though 2005 MDG of equality may not have been achieved.
    - Supervised maternal deliveries rose almost 2 percentage points to about 54 percent from 2002 to 2005.
    - HIV/AIDS prevalence rate among pregnant women fell slightly to 3.1 percent in 2005 from 3.6 percent in 2003.
    - Marked improvements in gross primary enrollment and supervised maternal deliveries in Northern, Upper East and Upper West regions.
  - Remaining challenges and recommendations:
    - Quality of service delivery in social sectors remains problematic per 2004 APR; GPRS II could have detailed measures to address these challenges.
    - GPRS II appropriately highlights malaria control given its economic impact.
    - Staffs recommend ensuring adequacy of resources for medium- to long-term objectives in education and health, with focus on areas critical for accelerating MDG progress.
    - Stronger consideration needed for issues of efficiency and geographic targeting; recommend use of public expenditure tracking surveys to assess resources delivered to front-line services.
    - Ensure financial integrity and soundness of the National Health Insurance Scheme due to its orientation to the poor and vulnerable.
    - Encourage greater intersectoral coordination (e.g., health and water; health and nutrition) to address child malnutrition (reported as accounting for up to 60 percent of cases of child mortality) and rising infant and under-5 mortality rates.
    - Define intermediate targets to facilitate attainment of long-term objectives and to track developments by social group, gender, and geographic area.

- C. Good Governance and Civic Responsibility
  - Progress and gaps:
    - Progress mixed; clear steps in selected areas but slow progress in public sector reform and decentralization.
    - Government preparing legislation to support increased accountability, including Freedom of Information and Whistle Blower Protection.
    - Under GPRS I, passed Financial Administration, Public Procurement and Internal Audit Agency Acts to modernize public financial management (PFM) regulatory framework.
    - Baseline assessment using Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability Performance Measurement Framework indicates systems improved and are working reasonably well.
  - Areas needing further progress:
    - Budget preparation and reporting, procurement monitoring and transparency, internal audit processes, and debt management.
    - Strong implementation of the Government’s short and medium-term action plan for PFM is important.
    - Staffs support strategy to promote an accountable state and engagement of private sector and civil society.
  - African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM):
    - Ghana volunteered to subscribe to APRM under NEPAD; final report reviewed at African Union Summit in February 2006.
    - Staffs recommend better alignment of GPRS II governance priorities with the APRM “Program of Action,” with particular attention to actions to make further progress in the fight against corruption.

### Monitoring and evaluation
- Updated strategy aims at further strengthening the national monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system.
- GPRS II includes measures to address the severe institutional and technical capacity constraints identified in the 2004 APR.
- Staffs recognize challenges of constructing an M&E database—such as Ghana Info—and consider reinforcing capacities of the Ghana statistical services important for achieving the medium-term goal of promoting evidence-based decision-making.
- GPRS II would have benefited from inclusion of outcomes and progress indicators in the policy matrix.
- Staffs welcome the government intention to publish these in an updated GPRS II M&E plan and recommend that:
  - the updated M&E plan be completed shortly; and
  - it be focused on GPRS II agreed priorities to inform policy implementation and to allow continued preparation of very informative APRs.
- Strategy envisages widening the M&E process to include increased involvement of civil society organizations and expanded access to information at decentralized levels.

### Conclusions and risks
- Bank and Fund staffs believe that the GPRS II outlines a comprehensive framework for growth and poverty reduction in Ghana, building on experience gained during GPRS I.
- Emphasis on accelerated growth is appropriate given progress made towards macroeconomic stability and access to basic social services.
- Identified risks that GPRS II did not analyze in detail:
  - (i) inability to implement planed structural reforms, such as those in the area of land administration, energy sector and natural resource management, leading to a substantial deterioration in the current fiscal stance;
  - (ii) exogenous shocks—such as adverse terms of trade developments or increasing regional instability—and domestic factors—such as losses from quasi-fiscal activities of parastatals—that could weaken the macro-financial context; and
  - (iii) fiduciary weaknesses and capacity limitations that may limit the impact of the strategy.
- Recommendation: upcoming APRs should analyze these risks to the GPRS II and outline measures to mitigate them.

### Priority areas for strengthening implementation
- Staffs identify priority areas for further work:
  - (i) presenting and adhering to, a comprehensive macroeconomic framework that is consistent with the medium-term fiscal framework and growth assumptions set out in the strategy;
  - (ii) strengthening the link between the GPRS II, the medium-term expenditure framework and the annual budgets;
  - (iii) deepening the strategy by prioritizing public actions needed to accelerate pro-poor and private-sector led growth;
  - (iv) ensuring the adequacy of resources for the medium- to long-term objectives for education and health services; and
  - (v) strengthening the anticorruption agenda and its alignment with the "Program of Action" of the APRM.

### Issues for Executive Directors
- Do Directors agree with the areas identified by staffs as priorities for strengthening the implementation of the GPRS II?
- Do Directors agree that the implementation of the GPRS II would benefit from outlining measures to deal with identified risks?

*Source: The Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy (GPRS II) for the period 2006–09 (Joint Staff Advisory Note summary); _cr06227 - 22. Building on the experience of implementing the GPRS I, the updated strategy_*

### 1.      The Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy (GPRS II) for the period 2006–09,

### The Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy (GPRS II) for the period 2006–09

### Overview and staff assessment
- GPRS II builds on lessons from the 2003–05 GPRS I and the 2004 Annual Progress Report (APR) of GPRS I.
- The strategy was prepared through extensive national and district consultations involving Parliament, Government, private sector, think tanks, development partners, trade unions, and civil society organizations.
- GPRS II was submitted to Parliament in October 2005 and presented to a Consultative Group (CG) meeting in Accra in November 2005, which helped develop a more prioritized Results Matrix.
- Key goal: acceleration of growth to enable Ghana to achieve middle income level by 2015.
- GPRS II is anchored on three strategic pillars: private sector competitiveness, human resource development, and good governance and civic responsibility.
- Staff advice and critiques:
  - Welcome strengthened focus on growth and structural transformation.
  - Recommend translating broad policy framework into time-bound, monitorable actions and results with an appropriate pro-poor focus.
  - Suggest embedding GPRS II into annual budget preparation and the medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF).
  - Recommend improved prioritization, sequencing, and results orientation to be reflected in upcoming APRs.

### Poverty trends
- Reported change in poverty incidence: from around 42 percent in 1997 to 35 percent in 2003.
- Drivers of poverty reduction during 1997–2003: acceleration in economic growth and reduction in inequality; substantial gains associated with movement from rural to urban areas.
- Persistent disparities:
  - Poverty remains predominantly rural and higher in Northern, Upper West, and Upper East regions.
  - Coastal belt relatively better off than the savanna, with pockets of poverty in coastal areas.
  - Poverty less prevalent in more educated households, families involved in activities other than agriculture, and smaller families.
  - Poverty more prevalent among families headed by someone unemployed, those in unpaid/domestic activities, and families that do not possess land.
- Staffs’ view and recommendations:
  - Concur that Ghana is very likely to halve the poverty rate by 2015, and recommend continued focus on reducing regional and socioeconomic disparities.
  - GPRS II presents a limited poverty diagnostic and underuses 2003 CWIQ, 2003 Ghana Demographic Health Survey, and Poverty and Social Impact Assessments.
  - Geographic targeting opportunities not fully exploited despite availability of poverty, education, and health maps.
  - Recommend using GLSS 5 to analyze recent trends and determinants of national and regional poverty and inequality; GLSS 5 preliminary results expected in December 2006.
  - Urge collaborative analytical work by government and development partners.

### Macroeconomic policies
- Macroeconomic performance under GPRS I (2003–05):
  - Growth averaged 5.6 percent, rising from 4 percent a year during 2000–02.
  - End-period inflation nearly halved to 14.3 percent from an average of 24.3 percent during 2000–02.
  - The cedi stabilized against the U.S. dollar; gross official international reserves were built up.
  - Goal of halving the stock of government domestic debt relative to GDP was achieved.
  - Domestically-financed public spending on pro-poor basic services increased from 4.8 percent of GDP in 2002 to 8.2 percent in 2005.
- GPRS II macro objectives:
  - Accelerate private sector-led growth to double the size of the economy within the next decade.
  - Specific goals for real growth in agriculture, industry, and services.
  - Maintain macroeconomic stability with stable exchange rate, single digit-inflation and low interest rates.
- Staffs’ recommendations and observations:
  - Growth assumptions deemed achievable, but strategy lacks a comprehensive macroeconomic framework (monetary policy stance, balance of payments outlook) consistent with medium-term fiscal framework and growth assumptions.
  - Greater clarity needed on the link between GPRS II, MTEF, and annual budgets in terms of allocation of funds.
  - Costing of GPRS II objectives and activities should be clearly linked to the MTEF and annual budgets; staff recommend adopting this approach starting with the budget for 2007.
  - High-level Government-World Bank consultation identified priorities: maintaining a stable and competitive exchange rate; improving the business environment; enhancing provision of infrastructure services; enhancing efficiency in the use of public resources; strengthening link between public sector wages and productivity.
- Financing gap and debt/aid considerations:
  - Authorities expect an overall funding gap of US$1.8 billion for the GPRS II to be filled by:
    - measures to cut non-priority expenses and create space for essential expenditure;
    - debt cancellation (including the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative);
    - scaling up of concessional assistance, including disbursements under the U.S. Millennium Challenge Account;
    - accessing international capital markets.
  - Staffs view fiscal framework as consistent with maintaining macroeconomic stability, but recommend that as new resources become available the macroeconomic framework be re-designed to ensure stability and efficient, transparent use.
  - GPRS II should have set out specific policies to ensure long-term debt sustainability, strengthen debt management capacity, improve expenditure composition to create fiscal space for pro-poor and pro-growth spending, prioritize expenditure via cost-benefit analysis for investment projects, and include all envisaged medium-term public investment (including public enterprises) in costing.

### Strategic pillars
A. Private Sector Competitiveness
- Emphasis on private sector-led growth to broaden economic base and achieve structural transformation for export expansion and diversification.
- Observed structural issues:
  - Economic structure remains virtually stagnant; share of agriculture, industry, and exports broadly unchanged.
  - Relative skills of labor force have not improved significantly.
- Key constraints and recommended actions:
  - Modernize agriculture and increase productivity; strengthen infrastructure support services.
  - Accelerate land administration reform to facilitate use of land as collateral (slow progress reported in 2004 APR).
  - Lower transaction costs by:
    - reducing time to register property and to start new businesses (time to start new business declined from 129 days in 2002 to 81 days by end-2005; still high compared to about 38 days in South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda);
    - strengthening the judiciary for commercial dispute resolution;
    - expediting export and import procedures.
  - Shift more resources to operations and maintenance of infrastructure services, ensure financial viability of infrastructure enterprises, and actively leverage private sector investment.
  - Use findings from Investment Climate Assessment, Doing Business Survey 2005, IFC and MIGA activities, and African Enterprise Benchmarking as platform for progress.
- Financial sector issues:
  - Although commercial bank lending rates are falling, interest rate spreads remain very high.
  - Financial intermediation (ratio of banking assets to GDP) remains low compared to other sub-Saharan African countries.
  - Policies under the Financial Sector Strategic Plan for strengthening the banking sector should be pursued.
  - Suggested priorities: establish environment for sound micro-credit to the poor, pass legislation for credit rating agencies, maintain fiscal anchor aimed at reducing public domestic debt.
  - Monetary policy can contribute to financial stability; recommend sequencing changes in monetary policy instruments to facilitate liquidity management per recent IMF technical assistance.
- Environment and natural resources:
  - Recent estimates of natural resource depletion point to annual losses equivalent to about 4.5 percent of GDP.
  - Staffs urge identification of measures from Country Environment Analysis to address failures in land, forestry, mining and urban environment.
  - Suggested measures include strengthening market incentives and local communities’ role in resource management and increasing capacity of regulatory agencies to enforce environmental legislation.

B. Human Resource Development
- Recent progress:
  - Gross primary enrollment rates rose to 87 percent by mid-2005 from 81 percent two years earlier.
  - Gender parity index narrowing, though 2005 MDG of equality may not have been achieved.
  - Supervised maternal deliveries rose almost 2 percentage points to about 54 percent from 2002 to 2005.
  - HIV/AIDS prevalence rate among pregnant women fell slightly to 3.1 percent in 2005 from 3.6 percent in 2003.
  - Marked improvements in gross primary enrollment and supervised maternal deliveries in Northern, Upper East and Upper West regions.
- Remaining challenges and recommendations:
  - Quality of service delivery in social sectors remains problematic per 2004 APR; GPRS II could have detailed measures to address these challenges.
  - GPRS II appropriately highlights malaria control given its economic impact.
  - Staffs recommend ensuring adequacy of resources for medium- to long-term objectives in education and health, with focus on areas critical for accelerating MDG progress.
  - Stronger consideration needed for issues of efficiency and geographic targeting; recommend use of public expenditure tracking surveys to assess resources delivered to front-line services.
  - Ensure financial integrity and soundness of the National Health Insurance Scheme due to its orientation to the poor and vulnerable.
  - Encourage greater intersectoral coordination (e.g., health and water; health and nutrition) to address child malnutrition (reported as accounting for up to 60 percent of cases of child mortality) and rising infant and under-5 mortality rates.
  - Define intermediate targets to facilitate attainment of long-term objectives and to track developments by social group, gender, and geographic area.

C. Good Governance and Civic Responsibility
- Progress and gaps:
  - Progress mixed; clear steps in selected areas but slow progress in public sector reform and decentralization.
  - Government preparing legislation to support increased accountability, including Freedom of Information and Whistle Blower Protection.
  - Under GPRS I, passed Financial Administration, Public Procurement and Internal Audit Agency Acts to modernize public financial management (PFM) regulatory framework.
  - Baseline assessment using Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability Performance Measurement Framework indicates systems improved and are working reasonably well.
- Areas needing further progress:
  - Budget preparation and reporting, procurement monitoring and transparency, internal audit processes, and debt management.
  - Strong implementation of the Government’s short and medium-term action plan for PFM is important.
  - Staffs support strategy to promote an accountable state and engagement of private sector and civil society.
- African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM):
  - Ghana volunteered to subscribe to APRM under NEPAD; final report reviewed at African Union Summit in February 2006.
  - Staffs recommend better alignment of GPRS II governance priorities with the APRM “Program of Action,” with particular attention to actions to make further progress in the fight against corruption.

### Monitoring and evaluation
- A Monitoring and Evaluation heading (V) is present in the source document, but no detailed text from that section is included in the supplied content.

*Source: The Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy (GPRS II) for the period 2006–09 (Joint Staff Advisory Note summary).*

### 22.      Building on the experience of implementing the GPRS I, the updated strategy

### 22.      Building on the experience of implementing the GPRS I, the updated strategy

### Monitoring and evaluation, and institutional capacity
- The updated strategy aims at further strengthening the national monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system.
- GPRS II includes measures to address the severe institutional and technical capacity constraints identified in the 2004 APR.
- Staffs recognize challenges of constructing an M&E database—such as Ghana Info—and consider reinforcing capacities of the Ghana statistical services important for achieving the medium-term goal of promoting evidence-based decision-making.
- The GPRS II would have benefited from inclusion of outcomes and progress indicators in the policy matrix.
- Staffs welcome the government intention to publish these in an updated GPRS II M&E plan and recommend that:
  - the updated M&E plan be completed shortly; and
  - it be focused on GPRS II agreed priorities to inform policy implementation and to allow continued preparation of very informative APRs.
- The strategy envisages widening the M&E process to include increased involvement of civil society organizations and expanded access to information at decentralized levels.

### Conclusions and risks
- Bank and Fund staffs believe that the GPRS II outlines a comprehensive framework for growth and poverty reduction in Ghana, building on experience gained during GPRS I.
- The emphasis on accelerated growth is appropriate given progress made towards macroeconomic stability and access to basic social services.
- The GPRS II would have benefited from analyzing the risks to the strategy. These risks include:
  - (i) inability to implement planed structural reforms, such as those in the area of land administration, energy sector and natural resource management, leading to a substantial deterioration in the current fiscal stance;
  - (ii) exogenous shocks—such as adverse terms of trade developments or increasing regional instability—and domestic factors—such as losses from quasi-fiscal activities of parastatals—that could weaken the macro-financial context; and
  - (iii) fiduciary weaknesses and capacity limitations that may limit the impact of the strategy.
- It would be important that the upcoming APRs analyze these risks to the GPRS II and outline measures to mitigate them.

### Priority areas for strengthening implementation
- Staffs consider further work is need for strengthening the implementation of the GPRS II. Priority areas are:
  - (i) presenting and adhering to, a comprehensive macroeconomic framework that is consistent with the medium-term fiscal framework and growth assumptions set out in the strategy;
  - (ii) strengthening the link between the GPRS II, the medium-term expenditure framework and the annual budgets;
  - (iii) deepening the strategy by prioritizing public actions needed to accelerate pro-poor and private-sector led growth;
  - (iv) ensuring the adequacy of resources for the medium- to long-term objectives for education and health services; and
  - (v) strengthening the anticorruption agenda and its alignment with the "Program of Action" of the APRM.

### Issues for Executive Directors
- Do Directors agree with the areas identified by staffs as priorities for strengthening the implementation of the GPRS II?
- Do Directors agree that the implementation of the GPRS II would benefit from outlining measures to deal with identified risks?

*Source: _cr06227 - 22.      Building on the experience of implementing the GPRS I, the updated strategy*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/_cr06227.pdf_