## _cr06243 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [_cr06243](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/_cr06243.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/_cr06243.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/_cr06243.pdf.json) --- ### Overall assessment (Data Quality Assessment Framework July 2003 — Summary Results) - Shortcomings in Paraguay’s statistical practices and databases can detract from accurate and timely analysis and policy formulation. - Key systemic issues: - Lack of an integrated statistical framework linking macro statistics, regulatory tools, intermediate objectives, and policy goals. - Weak statistical legislation, scarce resources, and low priority assigned to statistical work. - Concentration of macroeconomic statistical work in a few agencies raising resource pressure and institutional appropriateness questions. ### High‑level findings and gaps (summary) - Methodological soundness - Except for the CPI, significant room to improve methodological soundness across official statistics by expanding scope and adopting internationally accepted classification systems and bases for recording. - National accounts and government finance statistics exhibit important methodological shortcomings. - Monetary and balance of payments methodologies broadly consistent with international standards, with notable gaps. - Specific gaps: geographic coverage of the CPI; coverage of economic activities in the PPI; need to compile the sequence of accounts for the total economy and the rest of the world account; include credit unions in monetary statistics; adopt accrual accounting more fully. - Classification and sectorization systems generally do not rigorously follow international standards. - Accuracy and reliability — notable data‑source limitations - National accounts: insufficient data for construction, significant nonfinancial services, household consumption, and changes in inventories; reference year 1994 is obsolete; excessive use of fixed intermediate consumption/output coefficients. - CPI: weights have not been updated during the past 13 years; sampling and nonsampling errors are not calculated; missing prices are not imputed; share of consumption expenditure not covered by the CPI is 24 percent; CPI calculated for metropolitan area only. - PPI: basket not fully representative; share of goods output not covered is 11.6 percent; weights not updated in the last 10 years. - Balance of payments: customs and survey source data insufficient; net errors and omissions relatively unstable and sizeable (1998–2004 averages highlighted). - GFS: source data limited except for budgetary operations; municipalities do not report; some decentralized entities and public corporations report with delays; short-term nonfinancial public sector debt excluded from public and publicly guaranteed external debt statistics. - Serviceability (periodicity, timeliness, consistency) - Serviceability broadly satisfactory; most areas meet GDDS recommended periodicity and timeliness except national accounts and GFS. - Annual GDP: disseminated with an 11‑month lag (does not meet GDDS timeliness for some years). - Monetary statistics: monthly posting by the 25th day of the month following the reference month. - Balance of payments: quarterly periodicity and timeliness meet GDDS recommendations but initial dissemination lag of 6‑7 months for reporting (implementation outlook aims to improve). - Publicly available information does not permit reconciliation of statistics across sectors; intersectoral consistency cannot be ascertained from disseminated data. - Accessibility and metadata - Opportunities: adopt advance release calendars; improve website downloads; disseminate electronic tables and longer time series in addition to pdf formats. - Metadata adequate for most datasets but require updating: - National accounts GDDS metadata correspond to outdated series. - GFS metadata need enhancement. - Statistics released simultaneously to all users; unpublished nonconfidential data available upon request. - User assistance could be enhanced (sector‑specific contact information). ### GDDS participation and SDDS gaps - Paraguay participates in the GDDS since September 21, 2001; meets coverage/periodicity/timeliness for most categories with important exceptions: - Missing production indices and public and publicly guaranteed debt service schedule. - National accounts: national income and savings not compiled. - General government operations: local governments data not available. - Public and publicly guaranteed external debt: excludes short-term debt of nonfinancial public sector. - Monthly foreign trade data: excludes goods not recorded by Customs. - SDDS requirements (points to address prior to subscription) — selected: - National accounts: quarterly periodicity and disseminate no more than three months after the end of the reference period. - Production indices: compile monthly. - Labor statistics: compile quarterly and disseminate no more than three months after period (currently annual and five‑month lag). - Consolidated central government operations: compile monthly and disseminate not later than one month after reference period (currently only budgetary central government compiled monthly). - Central government debt: compile quarterly and disseminate within three months (currently annual). - Balance of payments statistics: currently six months timeliness versus required three months. - Official reserve assets: disseminated four weeks after the end of month versus one week required. - External debt: disseminated with a lag of six months instead of required three months. - Implementation outlook: with a forceful action plan Paraguay should be able to meet most SDDS requirements within two to three years. Priority: update and expand metadata on compilation and dissemination practices and post improvement plans on the IMF’s DSBB. ### Users’ survey (80 targeted; responses = 40) - Average overall quality rating (five point scale, 1 = poor and 5 = excellent): 3.0. - Use and perception statistics: - 80 percent of respondents felt Paraguay’s statistics comparable to neighboring countries. - 38 percent of respondents felt statistics were not entirely reliable. - Approximately 75 percent satisfied with coverage and level of detail. - 78 percent content with periodicity. - 68 percent satisfied with timeliness. - 75 percent relied on official websites to access statistics. - 82 percent of respondents indicated they were unaware of any official calendar of release dates. - 72 percent stated they could access data and methodological/explanatory information regularly. - 30 percent felt available information was sufficiently clear or detailed. - Usage shares (selected): - Prices (CPI & PPI): 83% - National accounts: 75% - Monetary statistics: 78% - Balance of payments: 45% - Government finance statistics: 38% --- ### Central Bank of Paraguay (CBP), Ministry of Finance (MOF), Directorate General of Statistics (DGSSC) — institutional prerequisites & integrity (selected) - CBP - Legal framework: Law 489/95 supports mandatory reporting for financial institutions and confidentiality (Articles 6, 7, 8); Article 80 mandatory reporting; Article 82 authorizes publication of monetary/financial data, external payments, domestic prices, output and income. - Resources: minimally adequate for current programs but insufficient for developmental work (full 1993 SNA adoption, balance of payments surveys, quarterly national accounts). - Independence: administrative autarky and normative autonomy; staff independent in choice of sources, methods, dissemination within resource limits. - Pre‑release access: government officials outside CBP have no access before release. - MOF - Legal basis: Law Nº 1535 assigns MOF responsibility for collection/compilation/dissemination of GFS, budget, and accounting data; confidentiality protected by Law on Civil Servants. - Coverage gaps: municipalities do not report; some decentralized entities and public corporations report with delays. - Resources insufficient to migrate to GFSM 2001 without additional staff and computing resources. - Terms and conditions for fiscal data compilation are not made public. - DGSSC - Law 11126/42 designates DGSSC principal statistical agency; central role not fully realized due to lack of autonomy and low priority. - Severe resource scarcity; most censuses/surveys financed by international agencies. - Authorities pursuing new National Statistics Law to establish NSS and create a National Statistics Institute (NSI). --- ### Dataset assessments and actionable recommendations (selected datasets) ### National Accounts — key assessment and planned actions - Methodological soundness and scope - National accounts compiled broadly in accordance with the 1993 SNA but: - Sequence of accounts for the total economy (up to financial accounts) and rest of the world accounts not compiled though inputs available. - Supply and use tables compiled for 1991–1997 only; discontinued due to resources. - Quarterly accounts not compiled; previous “quarterly GDP” were annual GDP allocated to quarters and publication suspended. - Classification issues: COFOG and COICOP not applied; gross fixed capital formation classified by type of asset but not by economic activity. - Basis for recording: transactions generally on accrual basis; exceptions — government and some rest of the world flows recorded on cash basis. - Accuracy and source data - No comprehensive data collection program; recent surveys improved supply but insufficiencies remain for some industrial activities, many services, household consumption, and changes in inventories. - Excessive use of fixed 1994 coefficients; reference year 1994 obsolete. - Changes in inventories obtained as residuals; importance of informal activities not monitored. - Serviceability - Annual GDP periodicity meets GDDS but timeliness does not: data disseminated with an 11‑month lag in recent years. - GDP by production and expenditure approaches ready earlier; recommendation: disseminate them without waiting for income approach to improve timeliness. - Revision and accessibility - Revision schedule prepared and followed but not public; preliminary data identified, revised data not clearly labeled to the public. - Metadata on DSBB need updating. - Planned actions (selected with timing as in source) - Short term: - 0.2.1: Evaluate resources required to strengthen the National Accounts Division. - 2.3.1: Compile an integrated economic account for the total economy and the rest of the world accounts (until net lending). - 3.1.1: Formulate a comprehensive data collection program of economic censuses and surveys; conduct the programmed economic censuses covering industry, trade and service activities. - 4.1.2: Disseminate GDP by production and expenditure approaches without waiting for income approach. - 5.1.2: Disseminate a preannounced schedule with release dates. - Medium term: - 2.2.1: Formulate project to compile institutional sector accounts as second stage of 1993 SNA implementation. - 3.3.2: Formulate and implement project to update the national accounts’ reference year. ### Consumer Price Index (CPI) — key assessment and planned actions - Current practices and shortcomings - CPI follows 1968 SNA household consumption concept; based on HBS 1990/1991 weights; calculated for metropolitan area only; weights representative only of urban households. - Missing from CPI: goods/services produced for own consumption, gifts in‑kind, imputed rentals of owner‑occupied dwellings, purchases of new vehicles. - Share of consumption expenditure not covered by the CPI is 24 percent. - Uses modified Laspeyres formula; missing prices not imputed; weights not updated in last 13 years; sampling and nonsampling errors not calculated. - CPI released on the last day of the month; meets GDDS recommendations for periodicity and timeliness. - CPI figures are final when first published; monthly CPI not revised. - Planned actions (selected with timing) - Short term: - 0.2.1: Upgrade computer equipment and software; provide adequate staff and training. - 3.1.1: Update CPI basket and system of weights using data from the 2005/2006 Household Budget Survey; process the HBS 2005/2006 to update the index base weights. - 3.2.1: Assess CPI data source and calculate variance or sampling errors; assess response rate, coverage, response errors. - 5.1.3: Disseminate a preannounced release schedule and improve dissemination of contact points. - Medium term: - 2.1.1: Follow IMF’s Consumer Price Index Manual 2004 and 1993 SNA for household consumption coverage. - 2.2.1 / 2.3.1: Compile a new CPI with broader consumption coverage and geographic coverage; define basket using COICOP and CPC. - 3.3.2: Adopt 1993 SNA and CPI Manual 2004 recommendations — include imputed rentals of owner‑occupied dwellings; use geometric mean; calculate retroactive index series using chain linking. ### Producer Price Index (PPI) — key assessment and planned actions - Current practices and shortcomings - PPI covers agriculture, forestry, mining and quarrying, and manufacturing; excludes electricity, water, gas, and services. - PPI basket (150 items) not fully representative of current national output; share not covered 11.6 percent. - Uses modified Laspeyres formula; missing prices not imputed; no new products introduced; weights not updated in last 10 years. - PPI published in last week after the end of the reference month; meets GDDS periodicity/timeliness. - PPI data are final when released; no revision studies; latest methodological change in 1995; no chained index to old series. - Planned actions (selected) - Short term: - 0.2.1: Upgrade computer equipment/software; provide staff and training. - 3.1.1: Update PPI basket and weights using supply/use tables based on new national accounts series. - 3.2.1: Assess PPI data source and calculate variance or sampling errors; assess response rate, coverage, response errors. - 3.3.1: Employ better statistical techniques to treat seasonal products, missing items, quality changes, and new products. - Medium term: - 2.1.1: Adopt 1993 SNA concepts (include own‑account production, work in progress). - 2.2.1: Change base year of PPI, updating weights by using output by industry including all goods producing activities. - Long term: - Base PPI updates on a program of regular censuses and surveys. ### Government Finance Statistics (GFS) — key assessment and planned actions - Current practices and shortcomings - GFS broadly consistent with GFSM 1986; authorities have not prepared a plan to migrate to GFSM 2001. - Scope: local government operations not included; municipalities not reporting due to constitutional autonomy (article 166). - Basis for recording: revenues on cash basis; expenditures on accrual proxy basis; financing on payment/disbursement date basis. - Source data: comprehensive data collection program via IFMS for many units, but some decentralized entities and public corporations report with delays; municipalities excluded. - Assessment of source data: not assessed to avoid or monitor response errors; lack of monitoring of IFMS assessments. - Consistency: GFS not reconciled with national accounts, balance of payments, and monetary statistics. - Planned actions (selected) - Short term: - Establish MOF/BCP working group to reconcile GFS above‑the‑line with below‑the‑line. - Compile and disseminate central government GFS following GDDS recommendations; prepare bridge table between chart of accounts and balance classification. - Apply penalties per Law No.1535 to ensure data provision; expand on-line reporting coverage. - Prepare and disseminate advance release calendars and make terms and conditions of GFS compilation public. - Medium/long term: - Prepare migration plan to GFSM 2001 and prepare complete GFS datasets on accrual and cash basis. - Include local government and all government operations; include short‑term domestic and external public debt operations. ### Monetary statistics — key assessment and planned actions - Current practices and shortcomings - Monetary statistics broadly consistent with the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM). - Depository corporations survey covers CBP, 13 commercial banks, and 14 finance companies (end‑2005); credit cooperatives (accounting for more than 20 percent of assets and liabilities of the banking sector) are not included. - Basis for recording: accrual basis; instruments recorded at market value except some government bonds at amortized cost. - Source data: DCS based on consolidated balance sheets reported to the Bank Superintendence (BS); transmission to MSD in hardcopy creates manual input burden. - Validation: verifications performed when inconsistencies observed; MSD does not check consistency of interbank positions nor of domestic public debt; consistency checks performed for international reserves and foreign assets/liabilities against BOP. - Revisions: no regular revision policy; data released as final; revisions infrequent. - Timeliness: monetary data posted by 25th day of month following reference month; meet GDDS recommendations. - Planned actions (selected) - Short term: - Introduce electronic data transmission from BS and AD to MSD; implement CBP data integration project. - Include deposit‑taking cooperatives (INCOOP coordination): initially estimate accounts based on monthly data from 20 largest credit unions and 20 largest production cooperatives accounting for approximately 85 percent of assets/liabilities of deposit‑taking cooperatives. - Introduce systematic validation procedures for monetary data (interbank positions, government securities holdings vs CBP debt registry, consistency with fiscal data). - Hire a research assistant at MFSD to increase productivity of professional staff. - Speed dissemination by posting monetary tables in Excel format as soon as available. - Medium/long term: - Split “Other resident sectors” into “Other nonfinancial corporations,” “Households,” and “NPISHs.” - Sectorize accrued interest by ODCs and report it with underlying instruments. ### Balance of payments (BOP) — key assessment and planned actions - Current practices and shortcomings - BOP broadly follows BPM5; resident definition broadly in conformity with BPM5; two binational hydroelectrical enterprises treated as nonresidents. - Scope broadly consistent with BPM5; estimates made for unrecorded foreign trade, workers’ remittances, profits, and private deposits abroad. - Source data timely except for surveys; customs and survey source data insufficient; reexports and unrecorded imports estimated significantly (2005 reexports estimated at US$950 million). - Recording: mostly market prices, with departures from accrual for interest on public sector debt and on official reserve assets; some services recorded on net basis (e.g., telecommunication). - Validation: routine checks and estimates for unrecorded activities, but bilateral reconciliation with partner countries and agencies not regularly conducted (except goods trade within MERCOSUR). - Timeliness: quarterly BOP and IIP meet GDDS recommendations; initial dissemination lag of 6‑7 months for reporting to STA and to public. - Net errors and omissions: relatively unstable and sizeable; 1998–2004 net errors and omissions larger than in other MERCOSUR countries as a percentage of GDP, goods trade, and current account. - Planned actions (selected) - High priority: - Strengthen data sources through surveys and censuses; design and conduct sample surveys based on a comprehensive business register to capture data for items currently excluded. - Review and update statistical techniques to estimate unrecorded trade; seek expert assistance. - Compile interest on public sector external debt on an accrual basis with adequate counter‑entries in the financial account. - Subscribe formal agreement with Customs to facilitate access to freight data by carriers’ residence and related SOFIA data. - Short/medium term: - Improve timeliness of BOP/IIP reporting to STA (target to move from 6–7 months to 3 months after reference quarter). - Initiate compilation and dissemination of public and publicly guaranteed external debt service schedule and SDDS prescribed external debt category. --- ### Cross‑cutting high priority actions (mission & authorities agreement) - Give higher priority to statistical functions in data‑compiling agencies and promote adoption of a new National Statistics Law and a national statistical plan. - Provide adequate financial, staff, and computer resources, and targeted training, for statistical activities. - Strengthen data sources across datasets, including through surveys and censuses. - Establish regular mechanisms for enhancing intersectoral data consistency and for consulting users to identify emerging needs. - Adopt advance release calendars for all statistics and strengthen data revision policies and make them public. - Enhance data and metadata accessibility (electronic tables, longer time series, Excel formats) and provide sector‑specific contact points. --- *Source: Data Quality Assessment Framework July 2003 — Summary Results; Detailed DQAF assessments and action plan for Paraguay (ROSC assessment), _cr06243.* ### 1. Data Quality Assessment Framework July 2003—Summary Results............................10 ### 1. Data Quality Assessment Framework July 2003—Summary Results ### Overall assessment - Shortcomings in Paraguay’s statistical practices and databases can detract from accurate and timely analysis of economic and financial developments and the formulation of appropriate policies. - Key systemic issues: - Lack of an integrated statistical framework linking macroeconomic statistics, regulatory tools, intermediate objectives, and policy goals. - Weaknesses in statistical legislation, scarcity of resources, and low priority given to statistical work. - Concentration of macroeconomic statistical work in a few agencies places pressure on resources and raises institutional appropriateness questions. ### Main findings and areas for improvement - Methodological soundness: - Except for the consumer price index (CPI), significant room to improve methodological soundness across official statistics by expanding scope and adopting internationally accepted classification systems and bases for recording. - National accounts and government finance statistics exhibit important shortcomings in methodology. - Monetary and balance of payments methodologies are broadly consistent with international standards, with notable gaps remaining. - Specific gaps: geographic coverage of the CPI; coverage of economic activities in the PPI; need to compile the sequence of accounts for the total economy and the rest of the world account; include credit unions in monetary statistics; adopt accrual accounting more fully. - Classification and sectorization systems generally do not rigorously follow international standards. - Accuracy and reliability: - Monetary statistics: accuracy and reliability elements largely appropriate. - National accounts, government finance statistics (GFS), and balance of payments: significant room for improvement in source data, validation, and statistical techniques. - Specific data-source limitations: - National accounts: insufficient data for construction, significant nonfinancial services, household consumption, and changes in inventories; reference year 1994 is obsolete; excessive use of fixed intermediate consumption/output coefficients. - CPI: weights have not been updated during the past 13 years; sampling and nonsampling errors are not calculated; missing prices are not imputed. - PPI: basket not fully representative of current national output. - Balance of payments: customs and survey source data insufficient. - GFS: source data limited except for budgetary operations; municipalities do not report; some decentralized entities and public corporations report with delays; short-term nonfinancial public sector debt excluded from public and publicly guaranteed external debt statistics. - Serviceability (periodicity, timeliness, consistency): - Serviceability broadly satisfactory; user survey confirms this. - With the exception of national accounts and GFS, other assessed areas meet GDDS-recommended periodicity and timeliness. - Publicly available information does not permit reconciliation of statistics across sectors; intersectoral consistency cannot be ascertained from disseminated data. - Revision policies/practices exist but are not communicated to the public; preliminary and revised data are not always identified. - Accessibility and metadata: - Opportunities to improve accessibility: adopt advance release calendars; improve website downloads. - Metadata adequate for most datasets, but: - Metadata for national accounts on the DSBB needs updating. - Metadata for GFS need enhancement. - Statistics released simultaneously to all users; unpublished nonconfidential data available upon request. - User assistance could be enhanced (e.g., sector-specific contact information). ### Institutional prerequisites and assurances of integrity (by agency) - Central Bank of Paraguay (CBP): - Legal framework supports mandatory reporting and confidentiality. - Resources minimally adequate for current programs but insufficient for developmental work. - Concerns about appropriateness of CBP compiling price statistics given concentration of macroeconomic statistics. - No formal consultations with users; informal user contacts exist. - CBP staff independent in choice of sources, methods, and dissemination within resource limits; administrative autarky and normative autonomy. - CBP authorized to comment on misuse or erroneous interpretations; terms and conditions for compiling statistics specified in laws and available to the public. - Government officials outside CBP have no access before release; staff rules and disciplinary sanctions well specified. - Ministry of Finance (MOF): - Legislation supports collection, compilation, and dissemination of GFS, budget, and accounting data. - Institutional responsibility for GFS within MOF defined only by internal provision. - Confidentiality and obligatory reporting specified by law. - Data gaps and delays: municipalities do not report; some decentralized entities and public corporations report with delays. - Procedures for data sharing and coordination within MOF and with other agencies need improvement. - Resources insufficient for comprehensive and timely fiscal data, especially if migrating to GFSM 2001. - No official agency outside MOF has access prior to publication; no evidence of political influence on compilation methods or output. - Terms and conditions for fiscal data compilation are not made known to the public. - Staff behavior and administrative procedures are clearly provided to staff. - Directorate General of Statistics, Surveys, and Censuses (DGSSC): - Statistical Law of 1942 designates DGSSC as principal statistical agency responsible for coordination and integration. - DGSSC’s central role not fully realized due to lack of autonomy and low national priority for statistical activities. - Severe resource scarcity; most censuses and surveys financed by international agencies. - DGSSC focuses mainly on basic demographic and social statistics. - Authorities are pursuing a new National Statistics Law to establish an NSS and create a National Statistics Institute (NSI). ### GDDS participation and gaps (as of participation date) - Paraguay participates in the GDDS since September 21, 2001 and meets recommendations for coverage, periodicity, and timeliness for most data categories, but important exceptions exist: - Missing production indices and data on public and publicly guaranteed debt service schedule. - Limitations in coverage: - National accounts: national income and savings not compiled. - General government operations: data on local governments not available. - Public and publicly guaranteed external debt: excludes short-term debt of the nonfinancial public sector. - Monthly foreign trade data: excludes goods not recorded by Customs. - Periodicity: - Consolidated central government operations: nonbudgetary operations disseminated only on an annual basis. - Timeliness: - Annual GDP: disseminated only when income-approach-based data become available. - Consolidated central government operations: timeliness limitations. - Only budgetary central government data are disseminated on a monthly basis. - Appendix I provides an overview comparing practices to the GDDS. ### SDDS requirements and gaps (points to address prior to SDDS subscription) - Real sector requirements: - National accounts: quarterly periodicity and disseminate no more than three months after the end of the reference period. - Production indices: compile with monthly periodicity and timeliness. - Labor statistics (employment, unemployment, wages/earnings): compile with quarterly periodicity and disseminate no more than three months after the end of the reference period. Currently compiled only annually and disseminated with a five-month lag. - Fiscal sector requirements: - Consolidated general government operations: compile annually and disseminate within six months of the end of the reference period. - Consolidated central government operations: compile monthly and disseminate not later than one month after the end of the reference period. Currently only budgetary central government compiled monthly. - Central government debt: compile quarterly and disseminate within three months of the end of the reference period. Currently compiled only on an annual basis. - Financial sector requirements: - Most categories meet SDDS prescriptions. Exception: timeliness of analytical accounts of the central bank — disseminated four weeks after the end of the reference period instead of the two weeks required. - External sector requirements: - Balance of payments statistics: currently six months timeliness versus the required three months. - Official reserve assets: currently disseminated four weeks after the end of the reference month versus the one week required. - External debt data: currently disseminated with a lag of six months instead of the required three months. - CBP would need to compile the Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity monthly and disseminate not more than a month after the end of the reference period. - Implementation outlook: - By developing and forcefully implementing an action plan, Paraguay should be able to meet most, if not all, remaining SDDS requirements within two to three years. - Priority actions: update and expand metadata on compilation and dissemination practices and plans for improvement posted on the IMF’s DSBB. *Source: Data Quality Assessment Framework July 2003 — Summary Results (ROSC assessment for Paraguay).* ### 12. Assessment of the quality of six macroeconomic datasets—national accounts, ### 12. Assessment of the quality of six macroeconomic datasets—national accounts, consumer price index, producer price index, government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics ### Overview of assessment approach and scale - Assessments conducted using the DQAF July 2003 at the level of DQAF elements using a four-point rating scale. - Dimensions “0” and “1” (prerequisites of data quality and assurances of integrity) summarized in Tables 2a–c. - Dimensions “2” to “5” (methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility) for each dataset shown in Tables 3a–f. - Key to symbols in summary: O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO = Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not Observed; NA = Not Applicable. ### Users’ survey of macroeconomic statistics - Questionnaires sent to a broad range of users; half of the 80 targeted users submitted responses. - On a five point scale (1 = poor and 5 = excellent), the average rating for the overall quality of official statistics for all sectors was 3.0. - User perceptions (major points): - Majority felt statistics were reliable. - Satisfaction with methodological soundness and comparability with neighboring countries’ statistics. - Generally satisfied with coverage, level of detail, and periodicity. - Concerns: timeliness needs improvement; advance release calendars should be made public. - Suggested expansions: short-term indicators of economic activity, statistics on tourism, more frequent economic censuses, more frequent labor statistics, a CPI with broader coverage. - More detailed analysis and tabulated results are included in Appendix V of the accompanying Detailed Assessments Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). ### Summary results (Table 1) — high-level observations - Prerequisites of quality (Dimension 0) show mixed results across datasets; examples: - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: LO for National Accounts, O for CPI and PPI, LO for Government Finance Statistics, O for Monetary Statistics, LO for Balance of Payments Statistics. - 0.2 Resources: varied entries including LNO, LO, and O across datasets. - 0.3 Relevance and 0.4 Other quality management: O for National Accounts relevance; mixed LO results elsewhere. - Assurances of integrity (Dimension 1) largely positive for Professionalism, Transparency, and Ethical standards across most datasets, with some LO entries (e.g., Transparency for Government Finance). - Methodological soundness (Dimension 2): most datasets show O or LO across subelements; some LNO entries for scope or basis for recording in specific datasets. - Accuracy and reliability (Dimension 3): mixture of O, LO, and LNO entries across subelements such as source data, assessment of source data, statistical techniques, assessment/validation of intermediate data, revision studies. - Serviceability (Dimension 4) and Accessibility (Dimension 5) show several LO entries, with some O entries for CPI, PPI, Monetary, and Balance of Payments on specific subelements. ### Central Bank of Paraguay (CBP) — Dimensions 0 and 1 (Tables 2a) - Legal and institutional environment: - Compilation supported by Law 489/95 (Central Bank of Paraguay Law). - Law includes: mandatory data reporting (Article 80); provisions for preparation and publication of monetary and financial data, external payments, domestic prices, output and income (Article 82); obligation to maintain secrecy and confidentiality (Articles 6, 7, and 8, and CBP’s Information Security Regulations of 1997). - Sanctions and fines in law for financial institutions and managers (Articles 94, 95, and 96). No penalties foreseen for nonreporter units in the nonfinancial private sector, affecting BOP and national accounts quality. - Resources: - Resources minimally sufficient for ongoing tasks, except national accounts where resources are insufficient. - Lacking resources for developmental work: full adoption of the 1993 SNA, balance of payments surveys, quarterly national accounts, improvement of source data and estimation techniques, and data quality verification and analysis. - Work facilities satisfactory; computer equipment and software need upgrade. - Relevance: - Some informal user contacts and staff participation in international seminars; no formal mechanisms to consult users (except for price statistics). - Other quality management: - Participation in GDDS; Coordination of Programs and Projects Unit established; statistical functions given low priority in resource allocation. - Need for more systematic data quality verification procedures, particularly for PPI, monetary, and BOP statistics. - Professionalism: - CBP has administrative autarky and normative autonomy; compilers independent in choice of data sources, methods, dissemination policies within resource limits. - Authorized to comment, clarify and correct misuse of statistics. - Transparency: - Broad legal terms and conditions specified in relevant laws and public; government officials outside CBP have no pre-release access. - Advance notice given of major changes (e.g., new national accounts reference year, adoption of 1993 SNA). - Ethical standards: - Information Security Regulations (approved July 1997) and Personnel Statute (approved September 1989 and February 1990) establish conduct rules, disciplinary sanctions, confidentiality, and are periodically reinforced. ### Ministry of Finance (MOF) — Dimensions 0 and 1 (Table 2b) - Legal and institutional environment: - MOF responsibility for collection, compilation, dissemination of GFS, budget, and accounting data assigned by Law Nº 1535 (Government Financial Administration Law) and bylaws; GFS responsibility clearly specified only in an internal MOF provision. - MOF shares public debt compilation responsibility with CBP; mechanisms for data sharing and coordination need improvement. - Confidentiality protected by Law on Civil Servants; procedures to prevent unauthorized disclosure. - Current legislation requires public entities (except municipalities) submit reports; penalties for noncompliance exist but some decentralized entities report late. - Resources: - Additional and more qualified personnel, computing, and financing needed to improve GFS and for tasks if migrating to GFSM 2001. - Law on Civil Servants stipulates actions to promote administrative efficiency, but MOF has not estimated costs or budgeted for GFS compilation. - Relevance: - MOF has not undertaken research to identify new/emerging data requirements; no user feedback surveys. - Other quality management: - Efforts to increase coverage and improve timeliness, but no formal processes to assess GFS quality or medium-term quality plans. - Professionalism: - No specific laws establishing professional independence of GFS compilers, but no evidence of political influence; staff receive training and on-the-job expert support. - Transparency: - MOF does not make terms and conditions for GFS collection/compilation/dissemination publicly available. - Fiscal data on MOF website clearly identified; some advance notice of major methodological changes provided. - Ethical standards: - Staff guided by Law Nº 1626/00 and civil service administrative procedures. ### Directorate General of Statistics, Surveys, and Censuses (DGSSC) — Dimensions 0 and 1 (Table 2c) - Legal and institutional environment: - Law 11126/42 establishes DGSSC as principal statistical agency responsible for coordinating statistical activities, conducting national surveys and censuses, and publishing statistical yearbook. - Obligation for public and private entities to provide information; legal confidentiality provisions included. - Decree 15415/70 provides for a national statistics commission. - In practice, DGSSC role not enforced due to weak institutional/political support and low priority; legislation does not provide required degree of autonomy. - Resources: - Very limited resources in staff, computing, and financing; censuses and major surveys mainly financed by international agencies. - Relevance: - DGSSC focuses on demographic and social basic statistics; inter-institutional committees exist for major statistical activities (censuses, household surveys, 2002 industrial economic survey). - Other quality management: - Authorities aware of need for a national statistical system (NSS) and adoption of a new National Statistics Law to create a National Statistics Institute (NSI). - Professionalism: - Compilers are independent in choice of data sources and methods within resource limits; DGSSC authorized to comment on misuse of statistics. - Transparency: - Terms and conditions for collection, processing, dissemination are publicly available; data clearly identified as DGSSC products; no pre-release access by government officials outside DGSSC; advance notice given for major changes. - Ethical standards: - Staff guided by Statute on Public Servants; regulation imposes disciplinary sanctions. ### National Accounts — Dimensions 2 to 5 (Table 3a) - Methodological soundness: - Concepts and definitions: national accounts compiled in broad accordance with the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA). - Scope: - CBP compiled Production and Generation of Income accounts for years 1991 to 2004, and GDP by expenditure and production approaches at current and constant 1994 prices and at current prices for income components. - Supply and use tables for years 1991-1997 with 33 economic activities and 46 groups of products were compiled. - Production boundary broadly in line with 1993 SNA; two accounts required by ISWGNA not generated although required inputs are available. - National component of binational hydroelectrical enterprises treated as nonresident. - Quarterly accounts are not compiled. Institutional sector accounts will be compiled in a second stage of the 1993 SNA implementation process. - Classification/sectorization: - National classifications linked to ISIC Rev. 3 and CPC; COFOG and COICOP not applied; gross fixed capital formation classified by type of asset but not by economic activity. - Basis for recording: - Transactions generally on accrual basis; exceptions: government’s and some rest of the world flows recorded on cash basis. - Accuracy and reliability: - Source data: - No comprehensive data collection program in place; supply of statistics increased through Population Census, Industrial Survey, annual Household Surveys, and a new comprehensive Household Survey. - Better access to administrative sources, but insufficient data for some industrial activities, significant part of services, household consumption, and changes in inventories. - Assessment of source data: - Accuracy assessed against available information when received and along the revision cycle. - Statistical techniques: - Some sound techniques applied; data scarcity issues lead to: - the 1994 reference year becoming obsolete; - excessive use of fixed coefficients for value added and household consumption; - changes in inventories obtained as residuals; - importance of informal activities not monitored; - supply and use tables compiled only until 1997. - Expenses of nonresidents in the economy included in exports but not excluded from household final consumption. - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs: - Intermediate data and outputs are assessed and validated against available information. - Revision studies: - Analysis of revisions carried out on an ad-hoc basis; results used to inform compilation process. - Serviceability: - Periodicity and timeliness: - Periodicity of annual GDP meets GDDS recommendations, but timeliness does not: data are disseminated with a 11-month lag. - Consistency: - Internal and intertemporal consistency achieved by obtaining some components as residuals, using SNA accounting relations. - Discrepancies with GFS regarding sectorization of employment insurance schemes: in national accounts included in financial sector per 1993 SNA; in GFS included in government sector. - Revision policy and practice: - Schedule for revision cycle prepared and followed, but not made public. - Preliminary data clearly identified, but revised data not clearly labeled to the public. - Analysis of causes of differences between revised and preliminary data not public. - Accessibility: - Data accessibility: - National accounts disseminated clearly with various levels of detail; easily accessed on CBP website. - Release timetable exists for internal use but is not public. - Data made available to all users simultaneously. - Nondisseminated statistics provided upon request; this possibility not notified to the public. - Metadata accessibility: - Metadata disseminated with different levels of detail via publications and CBP website. - GDDS metadata should be updated as they still correspond to an outdated national accounts series. - Assistance to users: - Consultation service offered; no specific contact point for national accounts; assistance not monitored. - National accounts publications and a list of papers available on the website and in CBP library; publications free of charge. *Source: Paraguay — Detailed assessment using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF), DQAF July 2003 assessments and user survey results.* ### 2. Methodological soundness ### _cr06243 - 2. Methodological soundness ### Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Concepts and definitions - Follows the 1968 SNA household consumption concept. - Uses expenditure data from the 1990/1991 Household Budget Survey (income and expenditure). - Adequate level of detail for both goods and services. - Scope - Calculated for the metropolitan area of the capital. - Weights representative only of consumption by urban households. - Missing: goods and services produced for own consumption by households, gifts in-kind received, social benefits, imputed rentals of owner-occupied dwellings, and purchases of new vehicles. - The share of consumption expenditure not covered by the index is 24 percent. - Classification/sectorization - Classified using an adaptation of the classification of consumption expenditure of households by purpose, in accordance with the 1968 SNA. - Index calculated for seven principal groups of products. - Basis for recording - Prices correspond to market prices paid by households and are inclusive of all taxes on goods and services. - Source data - III Households Budget Survey (1990/1991) used for CPI weights. - Some 6,000 monthly prices from 293 products (goods and services) are collected in direct interviews at different points of sale. - Assessment of source data - Data checked for logical consistency using manual and automated editing methods, including routine checks for extreme values. - In some cases, informants are consulted again. - Sampling and nonsampling errors are not calculated. - Statistical techniques - Uses the modified Laspeyres formula. - Missing prices are not imputed, affecting comparability of elementary prices. - Weights have not been updated in the last 13 years. - Response rates to price surveys and editing rates are not calculated. - A new household income and expenditure survey is being undertaken in 2005-2006. - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs - CPI is subject to validation with respect to primary data from individual price observations and to different levels of aggregation. - Revision studies and policy - Data are disseminated as final. - Periodic weight revisions are not undertaken to determine the bias of the CPI. - The monthly CPI is not revised; data are final when released. - Periodicity and timeliness - Meet GDDS recommendations. - Index is released on the last day of the month. - Consistency - CPI is consistent over time. - All-items index tabulations are consistent with aggregations by category of expenditure. - Data and metadata accessibility; user assistance - CPI data disseminated through press releases and posted on the CBP website. - Detailed tables contain indices by main group and percentage changes at different levels of aggregation; analysis of major price changes is included. - Internal calendar for dissemination is well known to the public. - Methodologies on the CPI and the III Household Budget Survey (1990/1991) available in CBP publication Indice de Precios – Metodología. - Only a general contact point at the CBP is provided; Domestic Market Division provides assistance and copies on request; data available at the CBP’s library. ### Producer Price Index (PPI) - Concepts and definitions - PPI weights of domestic goods based on value of gross output, excluding intermediate inputs. - Weights of imported goods correspond to the concept of supply of goods in the domestic market. - Scope - Includes producer prices for domestic goods: agriculture, forestry, mining and quarrying, and manufacturing. - Includes import prices for goods produced by same industries, except agriculture and forestry. - Missing: electricity, water, gas, and services prices. - The share of goods output by economic activity not covered by the index is 11.6 percent. - Classification/sectorization - Product classification corresponds to UN’s Central Product Classification (CPC). - Uses ISIC rev.2 for classifying domestic goods-producing establishments. - Index disaggregated by individual items, subgroup, group, section, and class. - Basis for recording - Prices of domestic goods are market prices, excluding value added tax. - Import prices include all import taxes except value added tax. - Source data - Principal sources: Agricultural Census 1991, National Forestry Census 1992, Industrial Census 1962, supplemented by limited census of member firms (1994). - PPI basket (150 items) is still not fully representative of current national output. - Monthly prices collected through direct interviews to principal producers. - Assessment of source data - Data checked for logical consistency using manual and automated editing methods, including routine checks for extreme values. - Sampling and nonsampling errors are not calculated. - Statistical techniques - Uses the modified Laspeyres formula. - Missing prices are not imputed, affecting comparability of elementary prices. - No new products are introduced. - Weights have not been updated in the last 10 years. - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs - PPI subject to validation with respect to primary data and aggregation levels. - Revision studies and policy - Data are disseminated as final. - Revision studies and analyses are not conducted. - No regular program for updating the PPI; data are final when released. - Results of weights change for the PPI are published. - Latest methodological change in PPI compilation was introduced in 1995. - A chained index between old and new series is not available. - Periodicity and timeliness - Meet GDDS recommendations. - PPI published in the last week after the end of the reference month. - Data and metadata accessibility; user assistance - PPI data disseminated through press releases and posted on the CBP website. - Detailed tables contain indices by seven groups of local products and four groups of imported products; analysis included in CBP’s monthly Informe Económico. - Internal schedule is well known to the public. - Methodologies available in CBP publication Indice de Precios: Metodologías, Volumen Uno, Mercado Interno; available to general public and requestable from DMD. - Only a general contact point at the BCP is provided; DMD provides assistance and copies upon request; data available at CBP’s library. ### Government Finance Statistics (GFS) - Concepts and definitions - Broadly consistent with A Manual on Government Finance Statistics 1986 (GFSM 1986). - Authorities have not yet prepared a plan to migrate to GFSM 2001. - Scope - Data on operations of local governments are not included in GFS. - Classification/sectorization - Sectorization not consistent with international recommendations: consolidated data for central government are not compiled; some financial institutions included in the nonfinancial public sector. - Classification broadly in accordance with GFSM 1986, except for financing and debt. - Functional classification of expenditures is not compiled. - Basis for recording - Revenues recorded on a cash basis. - Expenditures recorded on an accrual proxy basis. - Financing recorded on a payment date basis for debt service and creditor’s disbursement date basis for disbursement. - Most transactions shown on a gross basis, in line with GFSM 1986. - Source data - Data for all public sector units, except local governments and two nonfinancial public corporations, obtained from a comprehensive data collection program recorded in Integrated Financial Management System (IFMS) and subsystems. - IFMS classification broadly in line with GFSM 1986. - More automation of reporting systems needed. - Timeliness of source data for some extra budgetary and nonfinancial public corporations needs improvement. - Assessment of source data - Source data are not assessed to avoid or monitor response errors or misreported data. - Results of data assessment in IFMS are not monitored to guide statistical planning. - Statistical techniques - GFS compilation strictly based on comprehensive administrative records. - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs - Some validation procedures in place. - Intermediate results for financing and debt are not validated against other information. - Statistical discrepancies in intermediate data are not assessed nor investigated. - Revision studies and policy - Revisions are conducted, but studies are not carried out. - First published annual GFS data are preliminary; final data published following revisions. - Preliminary and final data are adequately noted in publications. - Some assessments performed but not made public. - Periodicity and timeliness - Only central administration operations and central government debt disseminated following GDDS recommendations. - Consistency - Overall deficit/surplus and financing are not consistent due to a number of factors. - GFS not reconciled with national accounts, balance of payments, and monetary statistics. - Data and metadata accessibility; user assistance - Disseminated GFS permit identification and comparison of major aggregates; detailed underlying data and time series presented. - GFS not disseminated according to a preannounced schedule. - GFS metadata only available on the DSBB, with an electronic link posted on the MOF website. - Contact information and list of publications provided on the MOF website. ### Monetary Statistics - Concepts and definitions - Paraguay’s monetary statistics broadly consistent with Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM). - Scope - Depository corporations survey covers the CBP, the 13 commercial banks, and the 14 finance companies operating at end-2005. - Credit cooperatives (accounting for more that 20 percent of assets and liabilities of the banking sector) are not included in the depository corporations survey (DCS). - Accounts of banks in liquidation are excluded. - Classification/sectorization - Follows MFSM with three exceptions: - i) no breakdown between other nonfinancial corporations and households; - ii) classification of the national component of two binational entities as nonresidents; - iii) nonsectorization of accrued interest by ODCs. - Basis for recording - DC survey produced on an accrual basis, consistent with MFSM. - Financial instruments recorded at market value, except some government bonds valued at amortized cost because they are held to maturity. - Source data - DCS based on consolidated balance sheets of CBP, commercial banks, and finance companies. - ODCs report to the Bank Superintendence (BS) of the CBP, which transmits a hardcopy of aggregated data to the Monetary Studies Division (MSD). - Assessment of source data - Reporting system based on a common chart of accounts introduced in 1995, following international accounting standards. - Statistical techniques - Sound statistical techniques used. - Monetary data based strictly on balance sheets of the CBP and ODCs. - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs - Verifications performed when inconsistencies observed. - MSD does not check consistency of interbank position nor of domestic public debt. - Consistency checks performed for international reserves and foreign assets and liabilities against balance of payments data. - Revision studies and policy - CBP does not have a policy of regular revision studies to monitor monetary statistics. - Improvements introduced in response to requests by users. - CBP does not have a regular revision schedule; data released as final. - Revisions are infrequent and noted with disseminated data. - Periodicity and timeliness - Monthly monetary statistics meet GDDS recommendations. - Monetary data regularly posted on the CBP’s website by the 25th day of the month following the reference month. - Consistency - Monetary and financial data published by the CBP are released in consistent historical series. - Data reported by ODCs consistent with CBP’s accounting records. - Monetary data consistent with balance of payments data and with CBP’s debt registry data. - Discrepancies exist between monetary and fiscal data. - Data and metadata accessibility; user assistance - Data presented in aggregated form with detailed explanatory notes. - No preannounced release schedules, but time series are available on the CBP website in Excel format, although they need to be updated. - Paraguay has posted comprehensive monetary metadata on the DSBB, hyperlinked on the CBP website; methodological notes accompany tables in Informe Económico. - Contact information specifically for monetary statistics is not available on the CBP website. - MSD copies data onto CDs upon request. - A free-of-charge subscription service informs users when the latest data become available, with a link to download them. *Source: _cr06243 - 2. Methodological soundness* ### 5. Accessibility ### 5. Accessibility ### Concepts and definitions - Paraguay’s BOP statistics broadly follow the guidelines of the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual (BPM5). - Resident units are defined in broad conformity with BPM5. - Binational hydroelectrical enterprises treated as nonresidents. ### Scope - Scope of Paraguay’s BOP is broadly consistent with BPM5. - Estimates are made for unrecorded foreign trade, workers’ remittances, profits, and private deposits abroad. - Data not available for some services, direct and portfolio investment abroad, and real estate (of relatively minor importance). ### Classification/sectorization - Classification and sectorization systems are broadly in line with BPM5, with few exceptions, such as the treatment of goods for processing. ### Basis for recording - Data are mostly valued at market prices. - Two main departures from accrual basis: interest on public sector debt and on official reserve assets. - Some services (e.g., telecommunication) are recorded on a net basis. ### Source data - Obtained from data collection programs that are broadly adequate. - Main data sources include administrative records, surveys, and direct reports from nonfinancial enterprises. - Source data are timely, except for data from surveys. - Customs and survey source data are insufficient. ### Assessment of source data and statistical techniques - Data are routinely checked and analyzed. - Estimates are made for unrecorded trade, travel, transport, other services, grants, and workers’ remittances. - Some indicators and statistical techniques need to be updated/reviewed. ### Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - Survey data are regularly validated against balance sheets of the nonfinancial private enterprises received from the MOF. - The item net errors and omissions is monitored. - Bilateral data reconciliation with partner countries and international agencies are not conducted (except for goods trade data within MERCOSUR). ### Revision studies - Revisions inform statistical processes but formal studies are not conducted. ### Periodicity and timeliness - Quarterly periodicity of the balance of payments (BOP) and the international investment position (IIP) meets international standards. - Timeliness of BOP and IIP data meets GDDS recommendations. ### Consistency - BOP and IIP data are consistent. - A reconciliation table (transactions and other changes) is disseminated regularly. - Consistent series are available since 1995. - The item net errors and omissions is relatively unstable over time, and sizeable in some years. - During 1998-2004, net errors and omissions are larger than in other MERCOSUR countries (as a percentage of GDP, goods trade, and current account). - BOP statistics are consistent or reconcilable with merchandise trade, monetary statistics, national accounts, and external debt data. - There are differences with GFS, whose concepts, scope, classification, and recording basis are not consistent with BPM5 guidelines. ### Revision policy and practice - The revision cycle is predetermined (data are preliminary for the new quarter and for the previous seven quarters) but this revisions policy is not made public. ### Data accessibility - Detailed data are disseminated on the CBP website and in hardcopy publications. - Formats are fully in line with BPM5 components; however, additional summary tables are needed. - Data are disseminated in a clear manner, but neither charts nor commentaries are prepared to facilitate analysis. - Data are disseminated in annexes of CBP documents (pdf format). - Electronic tables/databases are not available. - The CBP webpage does not provide time series of sufficient length. - Data are released to all users at the same time, but there is no preannounced schedule. ### Metadata accessibility - Concepts, methodology, and data sources for balance of payments compilation are available on the CBP website, as well as on the IMF’s DSBB, and other IMF balance of payments publications. ### Assistance to users - Publications on BOP data (including quarterly specialized reports on external debt and direct investment) provide contact points for BOP, external debt, and direct investment, respectively. - Contact information is also provided on the DSBB. ### Staff’s recommendations (selected, focused on BOP / cross-cutting) High Priority - Give higher priority to statistical functions in the data-compiling agencies, and promote actively the adoption of a new National Statistics Law and a national statistical plan. - Provide adequate financial, staff, and computer resources, as well as targeted training, for statistical activities. - Strengthen data sources across all datasets, including through the conduct of surveys and censuses. - Design and conduct sample surveys (based on a comprehensive business register) to capture data for items currently excluded in balance of payments statistics. - Review and update the statistical technique to estimate unrecorded trade. Seek advice from experts with broad experience in the calculation of unrecorded trade. Other key recommendations - Establish regular mechanisms for enhancing intersectoral data consistency. - Establish regular procedures to consult with users to help identify emerging data requirements and to obtain feedback on the relevance of official statistics. - Adopt advance release calendars for all statistics. - Strengthen data revision policies and practices and make them known to the public. - Enhance data and metadata accessibility of all datasets, including the formats for disseminating the data. - Provide sector-specific contact information for all datasets. - Reassess the treatment of multiterritory enterprises (e.g., Itaipú and Yacyretá) in line with the ongoing discussions in the context of the 1993 SNA/BPM5 review. - Sign an agreement with Customs to facilitate access to freight data by carriers’ residence and related data included in SOFIA (fiscal customs database). - Reclassify exports and imports of the maquila sector from merchandise goods to goods for processing, and assess whether source data are in line with BPM5 guidelines for adequate classification and valuation. - Compile data on interest on public sector external debt on an accrual basis rather than on a due-for-payment basis, including adequate counter-entries in the financial account. *Source: _cr06243 - 5. Accessibility* ### 4. We agree with the mission’s recommendation to conduct the programmed ### _cr06243 - 4. We agree with the mission’s recommendation to conduct the programmed ### Overall agreement and immediate data dissemination actions - Agree to conduct the programmed economic census and establish a regular program of economic surveys covering manufacture, trade, and service activities to improve accuracy and reliability of the national accounts. - Agree to improve timeliness of data dissemination, to make public a release calendar, and to update metadata on the CBP’s website and the IMF’s Data Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). Plan to implement these recommendations in the short-run. ### B. Price Statistics — overview and specific methodological comments - Broad agreement with the mission’s assessment for all data quality indicators of the consumer price index (CPI) and the producer price index (PPI), and with recommendations to improve their compilation. - Comments on accuracy and reliability: - Missing prices are not imputed in current CPI compilation. - CPI weights exclude imputed rent of owner-occupied dwellings or dwellings used by third parties for which no payments are made. - Mission recommendation to impute missing prices aims at adjusting the average price (a by-product not required to be published) and to adjust price relatives when an item temporarily disappears from the market. - Imputed rent of owner-occupied dwellings was excluded because the CPI objective is to measure inflation from a monetary point of view, a criterion also followed by other MERCOSUR countries and Chile. ### C. Government Finance Statistics (GFS) - General agreement with the mission’s GFS section. - Highlighted weakness: statistical legislation shortcomings are important obstacles to better GFS. - Methodological soundness affected because data on local government operations are not included in GFS. - Cause: constitutional issue — article 166 of the Constitution grants municipalities autonomy and autarky in resource management, allowing local governments to exclude themselves from the national budget administered by the MOF, negatively affecting gathering of local government data. ### D. Monetary Statistics - Share the mission’s assessment written with Monetary Studies Division staff of the CBP. - Agree with recommendation to hire a research assistant at the Monetary and Financial Studies Department to ensure efficient use of resources as a prerequisite of quality. - Lack of coverage of deposit-taking cooperatives (credit unions and production cooperatives) greatly impairs methodological soundness and underestimates broad money. - CBP is consulting the National Institute of Cooperatives (INCOOP) to request regular reporting from the twenty largest credit unions and the twenty largest production cooperatives, which together account for approximately 85 percent of the assets and liabilities of the deposit-taking cooperatives. ### E. Balance of Payments Statistics - Full agreement with the mission’s assessment on balance of payments statistics; no specific comments on any of the six data dimensions. ### III. ACTION PLAN — overview and prioritization - Action plan designed, based on ROSC recommendations and in collaboration with the mission, to increase analytical usefulness of Paraguay’s statistics. - Plan intended to guide national compiling agencies and international organizations/donors; IMF support counted on among others. - Detailed action plan presented in attached tables (not reproduced here). Not all actions have equal priority; some are conditional on reassignment of resources, funding, training, or technical assistance. - Most immediate tasks requiring IMF technical assistance: - (i) compile an integrated economic account for the total economy and the rest of the world accounts according to ISWGNA; - (ii) formulate a plan to update the national accounts’ reference year; - (iii) update the CPI and PPI basket of goods; - (iv) prepare a plan to compile a new CPI with 2007 as the reference year; - (v) reconcile fiscal and monetary statistics; - (vi) include the savings and loan cooperatives in the other depository corporations survey; - (vii) design and conduct sample surveys to capture data for items currently excluded from balance of payments statistics or items not appropriately covered; - (viii) review and update statistical techniques to estimate unrecorded trade. ### A. Cross-cutting Actions High Priority Actions - Give higher priority to statistical functions in data-compiling agencies, and promote adoption of a new National Statistics Law and a national statistical plan. - Provide adequate financial, staff, and computer resources, as well as targeted training, for statistical activities. - Strengthen data sources across all datasets, including the conduct of surveys and censuses. Other Key Actions - Establish regular mechanisms for enhancing intersectoral data consistency. - Establish regular procedures to consult with users to identify emerging data requirements and obtain feedback on relevance of official statistics. - Adopt advance release calendars for all statistics. - Strengthen data revision policies and practices and make them known to the public. - Enhance data and metadata accessibility of all datasets, including formats for disseminating the data. - Provide sector-specific contact information for all datasets. - Reassess treatment of multiterritory enterprises (e.g., Itaipú and Yacyretá) in line with ongoing discussions in the context of the 1993 SNA/BPM5 review. ### B. National Accounts Statistics — selected planned actions (DQAF codes and timing preserved) Prerequisite of Quality - 0.2.1: Evaluate resources required to strengthening the National Accounts Division (NAD) to accomplish actions in this Plan. — Short term - Assign additional and upgrade computer equipment and software. — Short term - 0.3.1: Establish a mechanism to contact users and identify their opinion on the usefulness of the national accounts and their new and emerging data requirements. — Medium term Methodological Soundness - 2.2.1: Review recommendation and practical implication in the external sector and national accounts of splitting multiterritory enterprises into separate units prorated on equity shares and other factors; collaboration between compilers needed. — Medium term - Formulate a project to compile the set of institutional sector accounts as a second stage of the 1993 SNA implementation process. — Medium term - 2.3.1: Compile an integrated economic account for the total economy and the rest of the world accounts (until net lending), attending minimum ISWGNA requirements to consider 1993 SNA implemented. — Short term - Reactivate discontinued supply and use tables incorporating presently compiled aggregates and additional available information to use them as an internal consistency compilation tool. — Medium term - Apply functional classification to government consumption expenditures; apply COICOP to household consumption expenditure once income and expenditure survey data (joint CBP and DGSSC) are available. — Medium term - 2.4.2: Assess recording of government’s expenditures on an “obligado” basis and evaluate adequacy as a proxy for an accrual basis. — Short term Accuracy and Reliability - 3.1.1: Formulate a comprehensive data collection program of economic censuses and surveys. — Short term - Conduct the programmed economic censuses, covering industry, trade and service activities. — Short term - 3.3.2: Formulate and implement a project to update the national accounts’ reference year. — Medium term - Assess possibility of applying the perpetual inventory method to estimate consumption of fixed assets. — Short term - Compile a Volume Index of Industrial Production and improve coverage and quality of volume measures for construction, commerce and service activities. — Medium term - Assess possibility of compiling directly changes in inventories for some important products. — Short term - Evaluate requirements and availability of basic data for compilation of quarterly GDP accounts and prepare an implementation plan. — Short term - Assess possibility of using DGSSC’s permanent households survey and other sources to estimate informal sector participation in GDP, and changes over time in employment and income generation. — Short term - Apply a better method for recording consumption expenditure of nonresident visitors. — Short term Serviceability - 4.1.2: Disseminate GDP by production and expenditure approaches, without waiting to complete the income approach, to improve timeliness. — Short term - 4.2.3: Prepare and disseminate a bridge table showing reconciliation of national accounts and GFS figures. — Short term - 4.3.2: Disseminate a schedule for the revision cycle of the national accounts and explain reasons for its adoption. — Short term - Identify revised data in publications and explain the revisions. — Short term Accessibility - 5.1.1: Inform the public about possibility and procedures to get access to data not disseminated. — Short term - 5.1.2: Disseminate a preannounced schedule with the dates the statistics will be released, and release statistics according to the preannounced schedule. — Short term - 5.2.3: Prepare metadata for the new national accounts series for inclusion in the GDDS website. — Short term - 5.3.1: Provide users a specific point of contact for national accounts. — Short term ### C. Consumer Price Index — planned actions (DQAF codes and timing preserved) Prerequisite of Quality - 0.2.1: Upgrade computer equipment and software. Provide adequate staff and targeted training for additional planned tasks, such as updating the CPI based on the supply table by product. — Short term - 0.3.1: Conduct structured/periodic consultation with data users on relevance and practical utility of the data. — Medium term - 0.4.2: Prepare monthly reports to inform management of quality of surveys’ data (response rate, coverage, response errors, etc.). — Short term - 0.4.3: Prepare a plan to compile a new CPI with updated weights and 2007 as the reference year. — Short term Methodological Soundness - 2.1.1: Follow recommendations of IMF’s Consumer Price Index Manual 2004, the ILO, and the 1993 SNA/1995 ESA for definition of all monetary household consumption expenditures. — Medium term - 2.2.1: Compile a new CPI with broader share of consumption expenditure and geographic coverage. — Medium term - 2.3.1: Define basket of a new CPI using systems broadly consistent with international standards, in accordance with: 1993 SNA; COICOP; and CPC. — Medium term Accuracy and Reliability - 3.1.1: Update new CPI basket of goods and system of weights using data from the 2005/2006 Household Budget Survey. — Short term - 3.2.1: Assess CPI data source and calculate variance or sampling errors to guide new CPI sample design. — Short term - Assess CPI data source and calculate response rate, coverage, response errors, etc. — Short term - 3.3.1: Employ better statistical techniques to improve treatment of seasonal products, missing items, quality changes, and introduction of new products. — Short term - 3.3.2: Adopt the following 1993 SNA and new CPI Manual 2004 recommendations: - Include Imputed Rentals of owner-occupied dwellings in the CPI weights. - Use of the geometric mean for price changes. - Calculate retroactive index series using chain linking between old and new series. — Medium term - 3.5.1: Process the HBS 2005/2006 to update the index base weights. — Short term Accessibility - 5.1.3: Disseminate a preannounced schedule with the dates the statistics are to be released, and release statistics according to the preannounced schedule. — Short term - 5.3.1: Improve dissemination of contact points by e-mail and on the web page. — Short term ### D. Producer Price Index — planned actions (DQAF codes and timing preserved) Prerequisite of Quality - 0.2.1: Upgrade computer equipment and software. Provide adequate staff and targeted training for additional tasks, such as updating the PPI based on the supply table by product. — Short term - 0.3.1: Conduct structured/periodic consultation on data users’ views on relevance and practical utility of price statistics (preferably through users’ surveys). — Medium term - 0.4.2: Prepare monthly reports to inform management of the quality of surveys’ data (response rate, coverage, response errors, etc.). — Short term - 0.4.3: Prepare a plan to improve the quality of the PPI, using data from supply/use tables based on the new national accounts series. — Short term Methodological Soundness - 2.1.1: Adopt concepts and definitions following the 1993 SNA, such as inclusion of new PPI weights, changes in inventories, and own-account production for final use. — Medium term - 2.2.1: Change base year of the PPI, updating its weights by using output by industry including all goods producing activities. — Medium term Accuracy and Reliability - 3.1.1: Update the PPI basket of goods and system of weights to improve coverage of current national output, using data from supply/use tables based on the new national accounts series. — Short term - 3.2.1: Assess PPI data source and calculate variance or sampling errors to guide new PPI sample design. — Short term - 3.2.1: Assess PPI data source and calculate response rate, coverage, response errors, etc. — Short term - 3.3.1: Employ better statistical techniques to improve treatment of seasonal products, missing items, quality changes, and introduction of new products. — Short term *Source: _cr06243 - 4. We agree with the mission’s recommendation to conduct the programmed (PDF chapter/section).* ### introduction of new products. ### _cr06243 - introduction of new products. ### Accessibility - 5.1.2 • Disseminate electronic tables and longer time series in addition to “pdf” formats. — Short term - 5.1.3 • Disseminate a preannounced schedule with the dates the statistics are to be released, and release statistics according to the preannounced schedule. — Short term - 5.3.1 • Improve the dissemination of contact points by e-mail and on the web page. — Short term - 5.1 • Prepare and disseminate advance release calendars. — Short term - 5.2 • Update metadata and include it in the MOF set of publications. — Short term - 5.1.1 • Update on a regular monthly basis the time series posted in an Excel format on the CBP website. — Short term - 5.1.3 • Introduce and make public an advance release calendar for monetary statistics. — Short term - 5.3.1 • Provide detailed contact information for users of monetary statistics. — Short term - 5.1.1 • Disseminate additional summary tables, charts, and commentaries to facilitate users’ analysis. — Medium term - 5.1.2 • Disseminate electronic tables and longer time series in addition to “pdf” formats. — Short term - 5.1.3. • Disseminate a preannounced schedule with the dates the statistics are to be released, and release statistics according to the preannounced schedule. — Short term ### Short term recommendations and operational prerequisites - 3.3.2 • Adopt the recommendations in the 1993 SNA and the new PPI Manual 2004, including: - Inclusion of work in progress in the in the agricultural PPI weights; - Use of the geometric mean for price changes; and - Calculation of retroactive index series using chain linking, between old a new series. — Short term - 0.1 • Establish a MOF/BCP working group to reconcile GFS data classified above-the-line with those below-the-line. — Short term - 0.1 • Establish a working group in the MOF, including staff of the FPD, accounting and public credit and debt units to improve data sharing and coordination. — Short term - 0.2 • Attend courses offered by the IMF and other organization on GFS methodology.(Two economists, one from the MOF and other from the CBP, will attend to the 2006 GFS course based on the GFSM 2001 methodology.) — Short term - 0.3 • Establish mechanisms to obtain feedback from GFS users regarding relevance and practical utility of fiscal data. — Short term - 0.4 • Establish mechanisms, legal and technical, to audit data reporting and cross-checking in the compilation of GFS. — Short term - 1.2 • Complete and update terms and conditions of GFS compilation and make them public. — Short term - 1.2 • Provide advance notice to the public about all changes in the methodology and others that affect the GFS. — Short term - 2.1 • Improve data reporting to STA for publication in the GFS Yearbook using the GFSM 2001 framework. — Short term - 2.3 • Compile and disseminate data for central government as defined by the international best practices. — Short term - 2.3 • Compile GFS for central administration excluding operations of the Postal Service Directorate (PSD). The PSD should be sectorized as a nonfinancial public corporation. — Short term - 2.3 • Compile GFS for nonfinancial public sector excluding operations of four employer social insurance schemes. These social insurance schemes should be treated as financial corporations. — Short term - 2.3 • Classification all the transactions of central administration following international standards, especially those related to external debt and financing. In other words, make the necessary changes in recording the operations of public institutions in the balance sheet, budget execution statements, and GFS, to meet international standards for recording external financing operations and non-guaranteed direct debt, for which disbursements and/or service has been transferred to another entity under an internal arrangement. — Short term - 2.3 • Revise financing and debt classifications aligning them to the international recommendations. External debt and financing categories should be compiled by financial instrument and maturity, and internal debt and financing should be compiled by debt holder. — Short term - 2.3 • Prepare a bridge table between financial information in the chart of account and balance classification as recommended in the GFSM 2001. — Short term - 2.4 • Prepare complete GFS datasets on accrual and cash basis. — Medium term - 2.4 • Value debt securities with coupons and with zero coupons at their present value in the AS and the ISFMED. — Medium term - 3.1 • Apply penalties in accordance with Law No.1535 to ensure data provision. — Short term - 3.1 • Continue expanding the coverage of units which report data on line to the AS. — Short term - 3.2 • Monitor response errors and misreported data through a follow-up of the report processing for a sample of central government units. — Short term - 3.2 • Establish the main shortcomings in the report processing. — Short term - 3.4 • Create a working group to assess and establish differences between data recording in the AS and the ISFMED. — Short term - 3.4 • Investigate statistical discrepancies between deficit/surplus and financing, and between financing and changes in debt stocks. — Short term - 3.5 • Prepare studies and analyses of data revisions. — Short term - 4.1 • Compile GFS for central government following the recommendations of the GDDS. — Short term - 4.2 • Working groups (those recommended in 0.1 and 3.4 above) will promote internal consistency of GFS and their consistency with other datasets. — Short term - 4.3 • Document and formalize data revision processes. — Short term - 5.1 • Prepare and disseminate advance release calendars. — Short term - 0.2.2 • Implement the data integration project that will allow electronic transmission of data between CBP’s departments and between the CBP and outside sources. — Short term - 0.2.2 • Introduce electronic data transmission from the Bank Superintendence (BS) and the Accounting Department (AD) to the Monetary Studies Division (MSD). — Short term - 2.4.3 • Reclassify “Provisions for loan losses” from “Capital accounts” to “Other accounts payable.” — Short term - 3.4.1 • Introduce systematic validation procedures for monetary data: (i) ODCs position with the CBP against CBP’s accounting records, (ii) interbank position at the level of the individual institution, (iii) ODCs reporting of government securities holdings against CBP’s debt registry, (iv) banking sector records on credit to government and government deposits against fiscal data, and (v) monetary data on international reserves and foreign assets against data from external sector (already performed). — Short term - 3.4.3 • Keep systematic records of detected problems in monetary data to help improve the statistical process. — Short term - 4.1.2 • Speed the dissemination of monetary data through the posting of the monetary tables of Informe Económico—in an Excel format—on the CBP website as soon as they become available, without waiting for the publication of the Informe Económico. — Short term - 4.2.3 • Reconcile monetary statistics with fiscal data. — Short term - 4.3.3 • Publish studies and analyses of revisions. — Short term - 0.1.3 and 0.1.4 • Include in quarterly questionnaires for compiling balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) data references to the CBP Law 489 (CBP’s responsibility for collecting and disseminating BOP data, confidentiality of reported data, and legal mandate for statistical reporting). — Short term - 0.2.1 • Assign to the Balance of Payments Division additional staff with appropriate training in statistics, accounting, and finance, and a predisposition for survey work. — Short term - 0.4.2 • Prepare weekly/monthly reports to inform management of the quality of surveys’ data (surveys’ response rate, coverage, response errors, etc.). — Short term - 2.3.1 • In line with BPM5, reclassify goods for processing (“maquila”) and nonmonetary gold as separate goods categories, instead of aggregating them under merchandise. — Short term - 2.4.2 • Compile interest on official reserves assets on an accrual basis, including adequate counter-entries in the financial account. — Short term - 3.1.1 • Subscribe a formal agreement with Customs to facilitate the CBP’s access to data on freight by carriers’ residence and other related information included in SOFIA (fiscal database on customs tariffs). — Short term - 3.1.1 • Prepare a comprehensive and up-to-date business register as the basis for sample surveys of business units. — Short term - 3.1.1 • Coordinate with MOF the inclusion in DMFAS of medium- and long-term external debt liabilities (transactions and stocks) of ANDE with banks (arising from the financing of its capital share in the binational hydroelectrical enterprises). Currently, these data are included in the BOP, IIP, and external debt statistics compiled by the CBP. — Short term - 3.1.1 • Coordinate with the MOF the inclusion in DMFAS of short-term debt liabilities of the nonfinancial public sector enterprises (e.g., accounts of ANDE and PETROPAR payable to their suppliers of energy and petroleum products, respectively). Currently, these data are included in the BOP, IIP, and external debt statistics compiled by the CBP. — Short term - 3.4.2 • Assess regularly the behavior of travel series and passenger transportation data series. — Short term - 3.4.3 • Monitor closely the developments in the errors and omissions item. — Short term - 3.4.3 • Reconcile on a regular basis the bilateral data with the data of partner countries and international agencies (e.g. BIS, IMF, and OECD). — Short term - 3.5.1 • Document analysis of revisions of balance of payments data and use these results to inform the statistical process. — Short term - 4.1.1 • Initiate the compilation and dissemination of the public and publicly guaranteed external debt service schedule, as recommended by the GDDS. — Short term - 4.1.1 • Initiate the compilation and dissemination of the SDDS prescribed external debt data category. — Short-term - 4.1.1 • Assess the viability of accepting the World Bank’s invitation to participate in its quarterly external debt statistics (QEDS) database. — Short-term - 4.1.1 • Continue with the preparatory work for the compilation of the reserves template. — Short term - 4.2.3 • Initiate a process of quarterly reconciliations of flows and stocks of medium- and long-term external public debt with the MOF. Currently, the methodology for the compilation of the MOF’s public sector external debt data (scope, classification, and recording basis) is not in line with BPM5. — Short term - 4.2.3 • Disseminate on the CBP website the results of applying the “Table of outstanding balances by debtor/payer” designed by the 2001 multisector mission (and included in the mission’s report, Appendix V, Annex 3). These table will facilitate data reconciliation by users. — Short term - 4.3.1 • Disseminate policies and practices governing the revisions of BOP and IIP data. — Short term - 4.3.1 • Review and modify, as necessary, the current revision policy and practice to reduce the frequency of revisions. Currently, new quarterly data release are subject to revisions during seven consecutive quarters. — Short term ### Medium and Long term methodological and system upgrades - 3.5.1 • Base PPI updates on a program of regular censuses and surveys. — Medium term - 2.1 • Prepare a migration plan to the GFSM 2001 analytical framework. — Medium term - 2.2 • Prepare a comprehensive data set of GFS, including local government and all government operations. — Medium term - 2.2 • Create, legal and technical mechanisms, to include all short-term domestic and external public debt operations (e.g., accounts payable of ANDE and PETROPAR). — Medium term - 2.2 • Include in the ISFMED all liabilities of the ANDE with Argentina and Brazil to capitalize the binational enterprises Itaipú and Yacyretá. — Medium term - 2.4 • Prepare complete GFS datasets on accrual and cash basis. — Medium term - 3.1 • Include data for local governments in the AS. — Medium term - 3.1 • Include all nonfinancial public sector data in the AS, especially data of ESSAP and COPACO. — Medium term - 3.2 • Train fiscal data compilers on how to report financial data (budgetary execution and balance) in a more accurate manner using the information obtained in from the previous actions. — Medium term - 2.3 (monetary) • Reclassify the national component of the binational entities Itaipú and Yacyretá from nonresident units to public nonfinancial corporations. — Medium term - 2.3 (monetary) • Split the accounts of “Other resident sectors” into “Other nonfinancial corporations”, “Households,” and “Nonprofit institutions serving households” (NPISHs). — Long term - 2.3 (monetary) • Sectorize accrued interest of ODCs and report it together with the underlying instruments. — Long term - 0.2.1 (monetary) • Assign staff to the Monetary and Financial Studies Department (MFSD) to assist with data entry and processing, to improve the productivity of the professional staff. — Medium term - 0.2.1 (BOP) • Upgrade computer equipment and software. — Medium term - 0.2.2 (BOP) • Secure funds for supporting developmental work (surveys on travel services and conduct/update specialized studies). — Medium term - 0.3.1 (BOP) • Conduct a structure/periodic process of consultation on data users’ views on the relevance and practical utility of BOP/IIP data (preferably through users’ surveys). — Medium term - 2.1.1 (BOP) • Review the recommendation and practical implication in the external sector (BOP, IIP, and external debt) and national accounts of splitting multiterritory enterprises (single enterprises—such as hydroelectric schemes on border rivers—with large operations in two or more territories but with unidentifiable branches) into separate units prorated on the basis of equity shares and other factors (recommendation made by the BOP Technical Expert Group working on the BPM5 update, which emphasized the need for collaboration between compilers of the territories concerned). — Medium term - 2.2.1 (BOP) • Design and conduct sample surveys (based on a comprehensive business register) to capture data for items currently excluded from BOP statistics (some services, direct and portfolio investment abroad, real estate, and other private sector transactions). — Medium term - 2.3.1 (BOP) • Review data availability and analyze customs’ recording practice of goods for processing for adequate classification and valuation of associated transactions in the current and financial account of the balance of payments. — Medium term - 2.3.1 (BOP) • Review data compilation procedures to improve the maturity split (short vs. long term) of external assets and liabilities of the nonfinancial private sector. — Medium term - 2.4.2 (BOP) • Compile interest on public sector external debt on an accrual basis rather than on a due-for-payment basis, including adequate counter-entries in the financial account. — Medium term - 2.3.1 (monetary) • In coordination with the INCOOP, expand the coverage of the ODC survey with the inclusion of deposit-taking cooperatives. In a first stage, estimate the accounts of the sector based on a sample of monthly data from the 20 largest credit unions and the 20 largest production cooperatives (which also receive deposits). — Medium term - 2.3.1 (monetary) • Obtain data for the entire cooperative sector on a quarterly basis, which could be used to verify the estimated monthly data. — Long term - 2.3.1 (monetary) • Include the accounts of banks in liquidation in the ODC survey, but show their position separately in the analytical accounts. — Short term - 3.1.3 (BOP) • Identify and employ more rigorous follow-up procedures (including closer contact with respondents) to ensure the timely receipt of respondents’ data. — Medium term - 3.3.1 (BOP) • Employ better statistical techniques to adjust data for missing observations. — Medium term - 3.3.2 (BOP) • Review and update, to the extent possible, the statistical techniques to estimate unrecorded trade (smuggling and shuttle trade), for example, by including the results of the ongoing household survey. Seek advice from experts with broad international experience in the calculation of unrecorded trade. — Medium term - 3.3.2 (BOP) • Assess the current methodology of estimating workers’ remittances based on the initial results of data collected from direct reporting of money carriers and other private sector financial intermediaries. Improve the reporters’ response and explore additional data sources for workers’ remittances. — Medium term - 3.3.1 (BOP) • Conduct surveys on services (passenger transportation, computer and information services, government services), grants and other current and capital transfers, and private sector financial transactions (based on the business register), for which data are currently based on estimation techniques rather than source data. — Medium term - 3.1.1 (BOP) • Survey questionnaires should follow sound design principles, for which relevant CBP staff would need special training. Seek advice from specialists in sampling techniques and other issues related to the different stages of the survey process. — Short term - 3.1.1 (BOP) • Conduct a new travel survey (the latest was conducted in 2000) in order to obtain information on expenditures of incoming and outgoing travelers for BOP and national accounts statistics. — Medium term - 4.1.2 • Report quarterly balance of payments and IIP data to STA for publication in IMF documents within six months after the end of the reference period. — Medium term - 4.1.2 • Improve gradually the timeliness of BOP/IIP data (moving from 6-7 months to three months after the reference quarter). — Medium term - 4.3.3 • Formal studies and analysis of revisions should be conducted and disseminated to the public. — Medium term *Prepared by the Statistics Department. Approved by Robert W. Edwards and Anoop Singh. June 21, 2006.* ### 1. Summary of Results for National Accounts .....................................................................26 ### 1. Summary of Results for National Accounts ### 0. Prerequisites of Quality — Legal and Institutional Environment - Responsibility: National accounts compiled and disseminated by the National Accounts and Domestic Market Department (NADMD) of the Office of the Manager for Economic Studies of the Central Bank of Paraguay (CBP). - Legal authority: CBP charter (Central Bank of Paraguay Law, 489/95) empowers data requests from public institutions, banks, finance companies and other entities, establishes confidentiality (Article 80), and provides for preparation and publication of monetary/financial data, external payments, domestic prices, product and income data, and supervised credit institutions (Article 82). "Product and income data" refers specifically to national accounts (1953 SNA basis). - Data sharing and coordination: - CBP maintains contacts with other main data-producing agencies to promote understanding of data requirements, avoid duplication, and consider reporting burden (e.g., discussion of questionnaires for Household Integrated Surveys and the 2002 Industrial Survey by DGEEC). - Formal agreements: CBP receives from the Ministry of Finance (i) monthly levels of aggregate sales by economic activity of medium and large firms and monthly data for the Central Government; and (ii) annual data for the General Government. CBP also receives data from the Ministry of Agriculture on agricultural product crops and prices, livestock data, etc. - Recommendation: harmonize the application of ISIC Rev. 3 by major producers of statistics to facilitate use of production, remuneration, employment, tax, and other activity-classified statistics. - Confidentiality: - CBP Charter establishes secrecy/confidentiality of information requested by the Bank, including provisions for supplying information on finance companies with express prior authorization to foreign supervisory authorities (Articles 6, 7, 8). - General Law on Banks, Finance Companies, and other Credit Institutions specifies types/periodicity of submission (Article 55), provisions on public submission of information by directors and staff (Article 84), exceptions, and sanctions. - Respondents are informed in surveys of rights/obligations and of confidentiality; confidentiality emphasized in questionnaire presentation notes. - Reporting mandate and response encouragement: - CBP Charter provides legal authority to collect required data but contains no penalties for nonresponse or false information by private nonfinancial entities; sanctions in banking law do not apply to private nonfinancial entities. - Reporting by private nonfinancial entities is effectively voluntary, leading to lower response rates and increased imputation. - CBP seeks cooperation by providing respondents with objectives and use of data, a point of contact for assistance, and by minimizing response burden through reliance on administrative sources (e.g., enterprises’ financial statements attached to tax forms). ### 0.2 Resources - Organization: - The National Accounts and Internal Market Department comprises three divisions: National Accounts, Internal Market (CPI), and Administrative Support. - Staffing: - National Accounts Division (NAD) has 12 employees. - Average staff seniority: approximately seven years. - Allocation of NAD employees: - statistics on production of goods: four employees; - statistics on services: three employees; - institutional sector accounts: one employee; - short term indicators: four employees (from which three are involved in surveys conducted by the Division). - Training: - Nine employees have participated in short courses abroad (most at the Spanish National Statistical Institute; one in an IMF course in Brasilia on quarterly accounts). - Employees benefited from on-the-job training with national accounts experts visiting on technical assistance missions. - Salaries: described as competitive with public administration for similar jobs. - Workload and limitations: - Compilers expend significant effort collecting and processing source data due to lack of basic statistics, leaving little time for analysis and development. - Urgent need to increase NAD staff to strengthen quality and scope of accounts. - Required scope expansions include: sequence of accounts for the total economy (up to financial accounts) and rest of the world accounts (until net lending), general government sector current and capital accounts, and quarterly GDP estimates. - Compilation of supply and use tables was discontinued mainly because of human resource limitations. - Computing and physical resources: - NAD has nine computers; the best four are Pentium 2 with 64000 kb RAM. - Computing resources need updating and improvement. - Building facilities are adequate; transportation arrangements for surveys and administrative data collection could be improved. - Financing: - Domestic financial resources assigned to NAD are limited. - Migration to the 1993 SNA and reference year update benefited from Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) financial support under the Support Program for Strengthening National Statistics. - Extension of IDB support to expand implementation (e.g., compiling institutional sector accounts) remains to be arranged. - Resource efficiency measures: - Annual review and evaluation of CBP staff performance by the Department of Human Resources. - CBP externally audited at least every two years for administrative, financial, and operative management (Charter, Article 37). ### 0.2.3 Relevance and User Needs - Users have not been formally consulted on needs; mechanisms to identify new and emerging data requirements are not in place. - Recent changes (new reference year and staged implementation of the 1993 SNA) have expanded usefulness of national accounts. - National accounts officials regularly participate in international courses, meetings and seminars (ECLAC, MERCOSUR, others), subject to budget constraints. ### 0.4 Other Quality Management - Quality focus and initiatives: - CBP established the Coordination of Programs and Projects Unit (CPP) to coordinate technical assistance and financial support. - Participation in IMF’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). - Support Program for Strengthening National Statistics (IDB-financed) produced new national accounts series with the 1993 SNA and 1994 reference period. - Project for Strengthening the Economic Financial Statistics. - Quality monitoring: - Implementation of the 1993 SNA provided access to international consultant guidance on source data analysis, compilation methods, and validation. - Compilation and revision cycle of national accounts serves as a quality-monitoring mechanism. - Administrative supporting unit established to better organize resource use. - New special promotion system for employees based on merit, including: assessment of high level performance; participation in projects to improve working processes; participation in training; publication of research related to staff duties. - Quality considerations in planning: - An annual work-plan is established and monitored. - Planning considers trade-offs among quality dimensions (resources availability, timeliness, accuracy). ### 1. Assurances of Integrity — Professionalism and Transparency - Professionalism: - No outside influences on compilation of national accounts statistics. - Choices of sources, techniques, and dissemination are informed solely by technical criteria and cost considerations. - CBP is authorized to comment on erroneous interpretation or misuse of statistics; it has published responses to criticisms of previous national accounts estimates and disseminated them on the CBP website. - Transparency: - CBP Charter and regulations, including terms/conditions for compilation and dissemination, are posted on the CBP website. - Specific information on confidentiality and use of individual reporters’ data is included in questionnaire presentation notes. - Government officials outside the CBP have no access to statistics prior to public release. - Data products are clearly identified as generated by the CBP (name and logo shown); joint publications show names/logos of producing agencies. - Major methodological changes (e.g., new reference year 1994 and adoption of the 1993 SNA) were announced to the public in advance. *Source: Detailed assessment for National Accounts from Paraguay’s DQAF-based ROSC—Data Module.* ### 1.3 Ethical standards ### 1.3 Ethical standards ### 1.3.1 Guidelines for staff behavior - The Information Security Regulations approved by the CBP Board of Directors Resolution No. 5 of July 15, 1997, establishes rules of conduct to reduce to an acceptable level the risk of human error, theft, fraud or misuse of information. - The regulations impose disciplinary sanctions on officials who fail to comply with these provisions. - Personnel engaged in compiling the national accounts are aware and periodically reminded of the existence of these rules. ### 2. Methodological soundness #### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - The methodological soundness dimension is assessed against the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA) or the European System of Accounts 1995 (1995 ESA). The 1993 SNA and 1995 ESA are viewed as interchangeable whenever reference is made in this document to the 1993 SNA. - The Bank updated the reference period for its national accounts and implemented the 1993 SNA in stages; the new series were released in 2005, replacing old series based on the 1953 SNA with reference year 1982. - Concepts and definitions used to compile the new series are broadly consistent with the guidelines of the 1993 SNA, with exceptions due more to lack of data than to conceptual considerations. #### 2.2 Scope - The scope of the national accounts statistics cover 1993 SNA accounts/aggregates. - From the 1993 SNA minimum requirement tables/accounts, the following are compiled on a regular basis: - annual value added and GDP at current and 1994 constant prices by activity; - annual expenditures of GDP at current and 1994 constant prices; - annual value added components at current prices by activity. - The sequence of accounts for the total economy (up to financial accounts) and the annual rest of the world accounts (until net lending), part of the minimum requirement, are not compiled, although required inputs are available. - From the 1993 SNA recommended tables/accounts, the following are not compiled: - quarterly value added and GDP at current and constant prices by activity; - quarterly expenditures of GDP at current and constant prices; - annual supply and use tables. - Previously disseminated quarterly GDP data were annual GDP allocated to quarters based on quarterly accumulated changes of the MEAI; the NAD has interrupted dissemination of these “quarterly GDP” figures. - Annual supply and use tables were disseminated for period 1991–1997, covering 33 economic activities and 46 groups of products; their compilation has been suspended due to lack of resources. - Delimitation of constituent units generally follows the 1993 SNA; binational hydroelectric enterprises are currently considered non-resident units, but the planned 1993 SNA update for 2008 will recommend splitting multiterritory enterprises into separate units prorated on equity shares and other factors. - The production boundary excludes, due to lack of data: - research and development on own account; - mineral exploration; - production of entertainment, literary, or artistic originals; - production of computer software; - illegal output sold to willing buyers. - The assets boundary is defined in practice as in the 1968 SNA; intangible assets included in the 1993 SNA are not in scope. Among tangible assets, defense-related assets usable for civilian purposes and valuables and historical monuments are excluded. - Institutional sector accounts will be produced in a second stage of 1993 SNA implementation. #### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - Classification and sectorization are partially consistent with internationally recommended systems. - Non profit institutions serving households (NPISH) are not separated from households (e.g., when estimating their final consumption expenditure). - Classification of transactions broadly follows the 1993 SNA. - Establishments and enterprises are classified by economic activity using a national industrial classification compatible with ISIC Rev.3. - Data are disseminated for 33 economic activities. - Products are classified according to the National Product Classification (CPP) compatible with the Central Product Classification (CPC): it distinguishes 268 groups of products at a working level, aggregated into 46 when generating supply and use accounts. - Correspondence tables link national activity and product classifications to ISIC Rev.3 and CPC. - Gross fixed capital formation is classified by type of asset, but not by economic activity. - The Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) is not applied to households final consumption expenditure. - Although the Ministry of Finance applies a classification by function to government expenditures, the NAD does not disseminate final consumption expenditure classified by COFOG. #### 2.4 Basis for recording - Valuation rules are broadly in accordance with the 1993 SNA; market output is valued preferably at basic prices. - Output for own use is valued at equivalent market prices when feasible, otherwise at costs as a second-best valuation. - Value added, sales, and excise taxes are included in intermediate consumption valuation, but the deductible part of value added taxes is excluded. The deductible part of value added taxes is excluded from valuation of final uses, when data sources allow. - No transfer prices in domestic transactions have been detected; consequently, no corrections are made. - No adjustments are made to correct for possible over- or under-valuation declared on exports and imports in Customs forms. - Total imports and exports are valued on an f.o.b. basis. - Transactions in foreign currency are converted using the monthly mid-point exchange rate prevailing in the market to record transactions accumulated with monthly periodicity. - Recording basis: - While most transactions are recorded on an accrual basis, government transactions are recorded on a cash basis. - Work-in-progress, where available data exist, is recorded in the period in which production takes place. - Grossing/netting procedures: - Transactions between establishments within the same enterprise are recorded on a gross basis. ### 3. Accuracy and reliability #### 3.1 Source data collection and adequacy - Major weakness: absence of a statistical system providing annual current statistics based on regular and continuous surveys and recent economic censuses needed for good quality annual accounts; main data problems for some manufacturing activities, a significant part of nonfinancial services, household consumption expenditure, and changes in inventories. - Recent improvements in statistical supply: - Population Census conducted; - Industrial Survey conducted; - annual Household Surveys conducted; - new comprehensive Expenditure and Income Households Survey conducted. - Better access to administrative sources; updated Directory of Establishments generated when preparing cartography for the Population Census. - Agriculture Census planned for 2006 and an Economic Census covering manufacture, trade and service activities has been programmed. - Annual enterprise/establishment statistics: - A regular annual economic survey program does not exist. - The latest economic and industrial census dates back to 1963, except agricultural census conducted in 1991. - The DGEEC conducted in 2002 its first industrial survey with reference year 2001; collected data were divulgated on the DGEEC website. - Industrial directory updated in 1997 and 2001 provides a sample framework. - Enterprises were stratified by economic activity at 2 digits of ISIC rev. 3 and by size into four strata by number of employed persons: first strata 1 to10 employed persons; fourth strata 50 or more employed persons. - A sample of 1632 enterprises were selected from the 3,698 enterprises included in the sample framework. - Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE): - CBP has compiled IMAE since 1991 and conducts monthly surveys; administrative sources and a small group of leading enterprises surveyed monthly feed the index. - The index is used in preliminary GDP estimates by economic activity. - The index was revised and base year updated to 1994, with national accounts’ economic activity composition, 1994 weights, and a wider statistical basis. - The revised index is in the process of consolidation and will be published in the near future. (probably in March 2006). A preliminary version has been disseminated in the CBP’s Monthly Bulletin. - Household surveys: - Two types: a comprehensive income and expenditure survey and a permanent one. - The latest comprehensive household survey was conducted in 1990/91 and a new one is being jointly conducted by the CBP and the DGSSC during 2006. - Based on the permanent household survey, the CBP disseminated data on employment, income, and salaries with a yearly periodicity and a five months timeliness. - The survey covers all geographic areas (except regions difficult to access, with a population of about two percent of the total) and socio-economic groups. - A two-stage stratified random sampling technique is applied, and proper imputation methods are used to deal with non-responses. Grossing-up factors are derived scientifically. - Government finance statistics: - Good information is available for government units, except for local government operations; most important local governments are included but coverage is incomplete. - Data cover operation of extrabudgetary funds and all defense-related expenditures. - Detailed data permit measurement of output, intermediate consumption, fixed capital formation, and final consumption expenditure of government services. - Data on capital stocks are not available. - Price statistics: - Price statistics at a good level of detail for agriculture products; Ministry of Agriculture collects prices monthly and provides them to the CBP. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a modified Laspeyres index with base year 1992; it covers a basket of 293 products that represented approximately 76 percent of the households consumption expenditure. - Producer Price Index (PPI) is a modified Laspeyres index with base year 1995; it has a basket of 150 domestic and imported products. - Unit values are used to value at reference period prices exported and imported products. - Prices for products are generally consistent with the variables being deflated in terms of price concept (except the mentioned unit values), coverage, and reference. #### 3.1.2 Approximation of source data to requirements - Source data generally approximate definitions, scope, classifications, valuation, and time of recording required. - Some sources have their own classification systems; national compilers establish correspondences where possible (example: per diem expenditures sometimes recorded as compensation of employees by some sources but reclassified to intermediate consumption when detected). - Current surveys cover a relatively small percentage of total economic activities (in terms of value added); the remainder is covered mainly using administrative sources. - Agriculture, financial institutions, central government and public non financial enterprises are relatively well covered. - Coverage of some manufacturing activities and an important part of services is not sufficient. #### 3.1.3 Timeliness of source data - Compilers employ rigorous follow-up procedures to ensure timely receipt of source data, particularly for monthly data required by the MIEA; surveys involve visits to collect questionnaires. - Special arrangements exist with the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Agriculture, and other institutions providing administrative records; information is received on time. - Data on compensation of employees, required as a key component of GDP by income approach, is available with delays, generating a lag in dissemination of GDP data since expenditure, production and income approaches are released simultaneously. #### 3.2 Assessment of source data - Accuracy of CBP’s surveys is well assessed; accuracy of other surveys and administrative sources are analyzed in the context of revisions. - All significant changes from available up-to-date data are incorporated into national accounts statistics according to the revision cycle to prevent accumulation of revisions over long periods. - Results of the 2002 Agriculture Survey were incorporated. - Results of the 2002 Industrial Survey were assessed and used. - Data on exports and imports are revised when new figures are received from the CBP’s International Economy Department. - Data received from different sources are analyzed for temporal consistency and cross-checked with related source data (e.g., production of agricultural goods compared with intermediate consumption/production of corresponding industrial activity). *Source: _cr06243 - 1.3 Ethical standards* ### 3.3 Statistical techniques ### 3.3 Statistical techniques ### Data compilation procedures and imputation - Data compilation procedures are adequate for the survey conducted by the NAD, for use in the MIEA. - Validation and verification are carried out directly by the NAD. - Adjustments to unit records are made only when clearly warranted, comparing historic information with secondary or indirect data. - Imputation for nonresponse is based wherever possible on data for similar type of enterprises. - For some major businesses, respondents are persuaded to provide information at least on certain relevant variables. ### Other statistical procedures, adjustments and transformations - Output estimates are compiled for 33 activities of the national activity classification, which has correspondence with ISIC rev.3. - Output at constant prices is obtained by extrapolation, using volume indices. - For most activities, a volume index of sales is constructed by deflating the value index of sales by activity based on sales data from the VAT forms using an appropriate price index. - For construction, a volume index of main inputs is applied. - Intermediate consumption is presented for the same 33 activities. - For most activities, fixed 1994 intermediate consumption/output coefficients are applied to output at constant prices to derive intermediate consumption at 1994 prices, with gross value added obtained by difference. - An excessive use is made of fixed coefficient more than 10 years old. The reference period 1994 is obsolete. - Current price procedures: - Composition by products of intermediate consumption at constant prices is calculated using the activity’s column of 1994 technical coefficients. - Appropriate price indices are used to pass activity’s intermediate consumption vector to current prices. - Price indices are used to value gross output at current prices; gross value added at current prices is obtained as a difference. - Informal activities are not independently followed in the time series, implying maintenance of their 1994 relative participation. - Special efforts made to incorporate informal activities through ad hoc surveys and every additional available source. - Estimates are made for smuggling in the balance of payments, which are also included in the national accounts estimates. - Specific techniques for some GDP compilation issues: - Owner-occupied dwellings: output valued as estimated rentals tenants would pay for a similar dwelling. Stock and classification by type based on the 1992 Population and Housing Census. Time series constructed by extrapolating the stock by the volume index of the construction activity and applying the rentals sub index of the corresponding components of the CPI. - Growing crops: treated as work-in-progress on the basis of the time distribution of the corresponding costs. - Consumption of fixed capital: based on depreciation figures obtained from enterprises’ and institutions’ financial statements. - Government transactions: available in cash and accrual basis, recorded on cash basis in the national accounts. Rationale: “obligado” does not reflect accrual recording adequately and resulted in irregular movements in time series. - FISIM domestically produced: allocated to resident users on the basis of the distribution of credits provided by the banks, without using a reference rate of interest mentioned by the 1993 SNA. FISIM allocation to households does not distinguish between households as producers or final consumers. No allocation is made to the government. ### Volume measures and deflation methods - Extrapolation by single volume indicators of output (or sales at constant prices) are used to estimate output at constant prices. - Fixed reference year coefficients are applied to derive value added. - Double deflation is used for government and financial activities. - Taxes on products at constant prices: estimated by extrapolating reference year taxes by a volume index of the supply of goods to domestic users (proxy for volume indices of sales subject to corresponding taxes). - Output volume of trade margins: estimated by extrapolating 1994 year-trade margins with volume indices of sales or output of tradable goods. ### Expenditure approach procedures and issues - Independently estimated aggregates: government final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, exports and imports. - Household final consumption expenditure at constant prices: - Obtained by applying to total supply of each of the 46 products at constant prices the percentage represented by household consumption in the 1994 supply and use table. - Implies an excessive use of fixed coefficients more than five years old. - Adequate price indices applied to obtain current value measures. - Changes in inventories are obtained as residuals. - Classifications applied to final expenditure components: - Households consumption is not compiled by purpose. - Government final consumption expenditure generated at aggregate level; not classified by function (although Ministry of Finance has functional classification). - Gross-fixed capital formation compiled by type of assets (construction and machinery and equipment), but not by activities (commodity flow method applied). - Exports and imports are consistent with balance of payments data, which include major estimates for unrecorded foreign trade. Unit value indices applied for most items to estimate flows at constant prices. - Changes in inventories obtained at current and constant prices as residuals in a supply and use aggregate framework. - Specific expenditure approach issues: - Government final expenditure excludes incidental sales. - Expenditures of residents abroad included in household final consumption expenditure and in imports. - Expenditures of nonresidents in the economy are included in exports, but not excluded from household final consumption expenditure. - Expenditures on stores of wealth (e.g., jewelry, works of art) continue to be recorded as in the outdated series due to lack of separate data. - Volume measures: - Household consumption implicit deflator is consistent with the CPI. - Government final consumption expenditure derived by deflating cost components of output for final use, except compensation of employees, extrapolated by a volume index of government’s employment. ### Quarterly compilation techniques - DCNMI produced and disseminated a quarterly estimate of GDP at constant prices which was a quarterly distribution of annual data, proportionate to the quarterly distribution of the MIEA. - Data for the first three quarters were generated by extrapolating with MIAE the last quarter of the previous year. - Publication of the extrapolated quarterly GDP was suspended; proper quarterly GDP estimates will be produced in the mid-term. - MIEA: - A weighted index of physical/volume indicators by economic activity. - Weighting basis: value added by economic activity for the national accounts reference year. - Recently revised; a revised index will be disseminated. - Will be published on basis of original data and seasonally adjusted using X-12 software. - Used to generate inter-annual estimates of GDP for the CBP’s internal use in March and June of each year. - First disseminated preliminary estimate is disseminated in December on the basis of data available through September. --- ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs ### Validation against independent sources - Data from main national accounts sources are validated against other available independent data sources. - Enterprises surveys assessed against enterprises financial statements, other administrative sources and information from producers’ associations. - Data on production of crops mainly exported obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture and validated against foreign trade statistics. - Information available on independent optional sources is limited. ### Discrepancy assessment and reconciliation - Detected discrepancies in intermediate data are assessed, investigated and reconciled or removed, according with available information. - Supply and use framework used to investigate discrepancies and make national accounts aggregates consistent for the period 1991–1997. - For following years, given the calculation method used (see 3.3.2), there are no discrepancies between GDP by economic activity and GDP by expenditure categories, as they are not estimated independently. - Unofficial estimates on GDP aggregates that could be used to assess the official ones are not available. --- ### 3.5 Revision studies ### Revision analysis and publication - Upon production of the new series, a careful analysis of causes of differences between the data of the new and the old series was carried-out for data at current prices of the new reference year 1994. - Documentation on the analysis has not been published, but has been presented in various seminars and in a press conference. - After publishing the series for 1991-2002, they were revised and new data included in the publication System of National Accounts of Paraguay, base year 1994, series 1991–2003. - No revision studies have been done; consequently, no results have been disseminated. --- ### 4. Serviceability ### 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - Annual GDP estimates compiled with periodicity recommended by the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). - Annual GDP estimates have been disseminated no later than nine months after the end of reference year in the past. - However, annual new series GDP estimates for 2003 and 2004 were released eleven months after the end of the corresponding reference year, thus not meeting the GDDS recommendations. - Delay explained by compensation of employees data may be presented to the Ministry of Labor until six months after the end of the calendar year and it takes two to more months to process and make them available to the CBP. - GDP data released only after GDP estimates by production, expenditure and income approaches are available. - GDP by production and expenditure approaches are ready for dissemination no later than nine months after the end of the reference year. ### 4.2 Consistency - 4.2.1 Statistics are consistent within the dataset: - Consistent set of GDP estimates by activity and expenditure components at current and constant 1994 prices, and by income components at current prices, generated for years 1991 to 1997 in the framework of supply and use tables. - For following years, consistent estimates for GDP components by expenditure, production, and income approaches have been generated by obtaining some components as residuals in a less detailed framework using accounting relations (e.g., changes in inventories and operating surplus/mixed income). - As a result, consistent growth rates and consistent implicit deflators are obtained within the “value = volume × price” framework. - 4.2.2 Consistency over time: - Consistent time series for national accounts data, with 1994 reference year, produced for the period 1991–2004. - GDP time series retropolated back to 1962 by applying the growth rates of the previous 1982 reference year series. - An extended time series with reference year 1982 covering the period 1950─2004 has been constructed. - 4.2.3 Consistency with other frameworks: - National accounts statistics are generally consistent with balance of payments, government finance statistics, and other related statistical frameworks; most discrepancies can be reconciled. - Examples of reconcilable discrepancies: - Investments in public finance statistics may contain current expenditures (e.g., training) excluded by national accounts from gross fixed capital formation. - Employment insurance schemes included in the financial sector for national accounts purposes, but GFS include them in the government sector. - These discrepancies could be eliminated if separate information is provided for employment insurance schemes. ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - 4.3.1 Revisions follow a regular schedule: - Two preliminary non-disseminated GDP estimates for CBP internal use made in March and June each year (cover first quarter and half year respectively, mainly on MIEA). - GDP for the current year estimated in December and included in CBP’s annual Preliminary Economic Report; first disseminated estimate based on MIEA and data available until September. - In March, a revised figure disseminated but still shown as preliminary. - Next revised data should be released not later than nine months after the end of the reference year, but in practice has been disseminated 11 months after. - Last GDP estimate reported as “provisional data, subject to change.” It is revised again and disseminated together with the preliminary GDP estimate for a new year. - The revised nature of the data is not identified in the publications. - Revision cycle is not made known to the public. - 4.3.2 Identification of preliminary and revised data: - Users informed about preliminary nature at time of dissemination, but not on the nature of revised data. - 4.3.3 Studies and analyses of revisions made public: - On major changes (adoption of 1993 SNA and new reference year), detailed explanations prepared; documentation not published but presented in seminars and a press conference. - Documentation on assessment of revisions and reasons for differences prepared but not provided to the public. - Revised series for 1991-2002 published without analysis of revisions. - No routine revision studies have been done; no results disseminated. --- ### 5. Accessibility ### 5.1 Data accessibility - 5.1.1 Presentation and clarity: - National accounts statistics disseminated on the CBP website and in the annual National Accounts Bulletin in a clear manner, including charts, tables and a summary analysis. - Last publication covering 1991–2003 did not include an analysis. - Data disseminated with different levels of aggregation. - Monthly Economic Bulletin publishes tables with national account statistics including time series of GDP for 17 activities at current and constant prices, GDP per capita, and other tables. - 5.1.2 Dissemination media and format: - Disseminated in hardcopy publications and posted on the website, with detailed time series from 1991 until the current year included in more comprehensive publications. - 5.1.3 Advance release schedule: - An advance release schedule exists for internal use but is not made public. - 5.1.4 Simultaneous availability: - Statistics made available to all interested users simultaneously through the website and published documents (Economic Report, Statistical Bulletin, Annual Report, and specialized national accounts publications). - 5.1.5 Non-routinely disseminated statistics: - Additional and more detailed statistics provided upon request when available; confidentiality protected. - Possibility of requesting additional data is not disclosed to the public. ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - 5.2.1 Documentation on concepts and methods: - Documentation on sources and methods published on occasion of the dissemination of the new series and accessible through the CBP website. - Various differences exist with internationally accepted standards; only a few annotated in the documentation. - GDDS metadata need updating; IMF website metadata still related to previous 1982 GDP series. - 5.2.2 Levels of detail: - Disseminated documentation attends needs of different types of users. - Two technical documents containing metadata: Productive structure of Paraguay-the production matrix and Basic Directory of information sources; however, they do not add much more detail. - Detailed and updated documentation for specialized users and compilers needs to be developed. *Source: _cr06243 - 3.3 Statistical techniques* ### 5.3 Assistance to users ### 5.3 Assistance to users ### Assistance to national accounts users — current practice and access - Prompt and knowledgeable service and support are available to users of national accounts statistics. - General contact information is on the CBP website and publications, but a specific contact point for national accounts (name, phone, fax and/or e-mail address) or with the NAD is not provided. - Lists of publications, papers, press releases and other documents are available on the CBP website. - Publications of the CBP’ Office of the Manager for Economic Studies are made available to the public free of charge; they may also be downloaded from the website or consulted at the CBP’s library. - Assistance to users is not monitored. ### Data Quality Assessment Framework — selected assessment flags and comments (Compiling Agency: Central Bank of Paraguay) - Key to symbols used in the assessment: NA = Not Applicable; O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO = Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not Observed; SDDS = Complies with SDDS Criteria. - Prerequisites of quality - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: X — The CBP’s Charter provides the authority for requesting information; however, it does not contemplate sanctions for failure to comply, which for the national accounts is specially important in the case of private non-financial units. - 0.2 Resources: X — Staff number and computing resources are insufficient, affecting the scope and quality of the national accounts, e.g., the compilation of the supply and use table was discontinued mainly because of resource limitations. - 0.3 Relevance: X — Wider coverage of the new national accounts series increases relevance, but establishment of adequate mechanisms to contact compilers and users would be convenient. - 0.4 Other quality management: X - Assurances of integrity - 1.1 Professionalism: X - 1.2 Transparency: X - 1.3 Ethical standards: X - Methodological soundness - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: X - 2.2 Scope: X — Two accounts, part of the minimum requirements established by the Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National Accounts (ISWGNA) to consider that the 1993 SNA is being implemented are not compiled; required inputs for their compilation are available. Supply and use tables were compiled for years 1991-1997, not since then. Institutional sector accounts will be produced in a second stage of the 1993 SNA implementation process. Quarterly GDP is not estimated. - 2.3 Classification/sectorization: X — Household final consumption is not classified by purposes. Government's expenditures are not classified by functions. Gross fixed capital formation classified by type of asset, but not by economic activity. - 2.4 Basis for recording: X — Government flows and some of the rest of the world flows are recorded on a cash basis. - Accuracy and reliability - 3.1 Source data: X — No comprehensive data collection program of economic censuses and surveys exists. Last industrial census conducted in 1963. An industrial survey was conducted in 2002. Insufficient source data for some manufacturing activities, a significant part of nonfinancial services, household consumption and changes in inventories. Data on income components of GDP are not timely. An Agriculture Census will be conducted in 2006. An Economic Census, covering manufacture, trade, and service activities, has been also programmed. - 3.2 Assessment of source data: X - 3.3 Statistical techniques: X — Informal activities not monitored in the time series; the 1994 reference year is becoming obsolete. Excessive use of fixed coefficients more than 10 years old. Consumption of fixed capital is based on financial statements. Changes in inventories are obtained as residuals. Expenses of nonresidents in the economy are included in exports, but are not excluded from households final consumption. - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs: X - 3.5 Revision studies: X — A detailed analysis of reasons for differences between current price data of previous and new series was conducted for reference year 1994. Longitudinal studies of revisions have not been carried out. - Serviceability - 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness: LO / X — GDP disseminated 11 months after the end of the year simultaneously by production, expenditure and income approaches, although GDP estimates by production and expenditure approaches are ready two months earlier, meeting GDDS requirements. - 4.2 Consistency: LO / X — Employment insurance schemes are included in financial sector by national accounts (as recommended by 1993 SNA); however, in GFS they are included in the government sector. - 4.3 Revision policy and practice: LO / X — A schedule for the revision cycle has been prepared and is followed, but not made known to the public. Preliminary data are clearly identified, but not the revised ones. - Accessibility - 5.1 Data accessibility: X — A schedule for the national accounts release has been prepared and is followed, but not made known to the public. Nondisseminated statistics are provided upon request; this possibility has not been notified to the public. - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: X — The GDDS metadata need to be updated, as they still correspond to the previous national accounts series. - 5.3 Assistance to users: X — A specific contact point for national accounts is not provided in the national accounts publications or CBP website. Assistance to users is not monitored. ### Recommended plans for improvement (as stated in source) - Evaluate the resources required to strengthen the NAD. - Establishment of a periodic consultation process to the main users of the national accounts (could take the form of a user survey). - Evaluate the availability of basic data for the compilation of quarterly accounts in the short term. - Finish the compilation and divulgate the sequence of accounts for the total economy and the rest of the world accounts (until net lending). - Reactivate the compilation of the supply and use table, to be used as a consistency framework for the national accounts compilation. - The SEN should norm the implementation of classifications to be applied by the most important producers. - Assess the recording of government expenditures on an “obligado” basis, and evaluate how good it is as a proxy for an accrual basis. - Assess the possibility of using the DGSSC’s permanent households survey, and other sources, to estimate the participation of the informal sector in employment and income generation. - Prepare a mid-term project to up-date the accounts’ reference year. - Assess the possibility to follow changes in inventories for some important non perishable products. - Adjust household consumption by expenditures of non resident visitors. - Assess the possibility of compiling quarterly accounts and disseminate GDP by production and expenditure approaches meeting GDDS requirements without waiting for the basic data to compile also GDP by income approach. - Prepare and disseminate a bridge table, showing how to reconcile the national accounts and GFS figures. - Disseminate a schedule for the revision cycle of the national accounts and explain reasons for adopting the schedule; identify which data are being revised when disseminating the accounts; include in the disseminated accounts a short explanation of the revision made and the reasons for doing them. - Disseminate a schedule of dates for national accounts release. Inform the public about the possibility and procedures to get access to not disseminated data. - Prepare the metadata corresponding to the new national accounts series and send it to the IMF, to replace the presently posted ones. - Specify a contact point that could assist national accounts users. Monitor assistance provided to users in order to get information that could help to improve it. ### Price statistics (Consumer Price Index) — institutional and operational notes - Responsibility: Price Statistics of Paraguay compiled and disseminated by the National Accounts and Domestic Market Department (DCNMI) of the Office of the Manager for Economic Studies (GEE) of the Central Bank of Paraguay (CBP). - Legal basis and coordination: - CBP Law: Law 489/95 contains provisions authorizing information requests, ensuring confidentiality, and provisions on preparation and publication of monetary and financial statistics and statistics on external payments, domestic prices, output, and revenue (Article 82); specific confidentiality provisions (Articles 6, 7, and 8). - A decree-law remains in force (No. 11126 of February 1942) assigning to the Directorate-General of Statistics and Census (DGEEC) responsibility for compiling consumer prices among others. - Historical note: CPI was first compiled in 1938. - Data sharing and coordination: Household budget surveys for market basket selection and CPI weights use the Sample Framework on Census Areas (AEs) developed by the DGEEC. The Fourth Household Budget Survey (HBS 2005-2006) is being carried out pursuant to an agreement delegating CBP tasks to the DGEEC. - Confidentiality and respondent protection: - Article 82 stipulates aggregated publication without individual references; personnel must exercise full discretion; penalties for failure are covered under Article 88 of Law No. 861/96. - Establishments included in price investigations receive a letter identifying the price collector and stating confidentiality. - Access to individual data restricted to responsible specialists assigned a code; specialists informed of the Information Security Regulation (Resolution 5, Minute 136). - Forms are filed for approximately five years, then moved to CBP general archives. - Statistical reporting and response encouragement: - Article 80 of the Law on the CBP obliges public institutions, banks, companies and other entities to provide information needed; no penalties are applied for failure to comply with requests. - Introductory letters are sent to reporters; supervisors conduct special visits on refusal and replace noncooperating reporters. - In consumer price surveys the proportion of non respondents is minimal; a sample of replacement households is prepared for HBS non respondents. - HBS forms are filled out by the price collector with an appropriate household respondent. - Price collection uses 70 forms adapted to each type of establishment; for each good only one variety per establishment is investigated (brand, unit, form). Services are described by typology. - When an HBS is started, it is announced on radio, television and in press notices. - The response rate to the HBS 1990–1991 was 89 percent of the households queried. *Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/_cr06243.pdf* ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2.1 Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing are commensurate with statistical programs - Staffing and responsibilities - The Domestic Market Division (DMD) has a total staff of 17 (a division chief, three section chiefs, four supervisors, and nine price collectors) responsible for the monthly compilation of the CPI and PPI, as well as a half-yearly wage index. - Compilation of the CPI accounts for 75 percent of the total hours worked by the DMD. - DMD is engaged in special studies, including the International Comparisons Program (ICP) of the World Bank and participation in the development and monitoring of the CBP─DGEEC agreement on conducting the HBS 2005–2006. - Price collectors collect prices and input/verify transcribed data; supervisors oversee price collection, produce reports on primary data, validate prices and price changes, and verify outlying prices; section chiefs coordinate field work, process data, and prepare tables; division chief and chief of the Analysis Section formulate study methodologies, analyze indicators, and write monthly reports and presentations. - Staffing level is considered minimally adequate for current workload but insufficient for developmental work. - To cover vacancies occasioned by assignment of staff to special projects, it would be necessary to expand the team by adding one supervisor and three price collectors. - Training and qualifications - DMD staff have received professional training through MECOVI and courses organized by Eurostat; work on harmonizing CPIs of MERCOSUR (1999–2004) and the ICP contributed to training. - Expert staff (division chief and section chiefs) for the CPI have professional university degrees with training in economics and statistics. - Price collectors must hold bachelor’s degrees with introductory studies in economics. - Supervisors must have a minimum of three years’ experience as price collectors. - Compensation and tenure - Compensation of CPI personnel is competitive compared with other public sector employees. - Average length of service for the division chief and section chief positions exceeds 15 years. - For field staff (supervisors and price collectors), turnover to other CBP units is high; average length of service is three to four years. - Promotion system provides for increases every two years within the job category scale; beginning in 2006 these increases will be based on a merit-testing basis coordinated by the Office of the Manager for Institutional Development and Management, based on staff appraisal considering: extraordinary production, honesty, loyalty, dedication, seniority, and completion of a program of studies at a recognized university. - Computer resources and systems - Computer resources used for CPI compilation and processing are insufficient. - A computer is assigned to each professional; a shared computer is assigned for every three technical staff. Most hardware lacks sufficient capacity. - The database is designed in FoxPro, version 2.2, running on Novell NetWare version 3.1, and has the capacity to process large volumes of information. - Strengths of the processing system: - (i) permits simultaneous operation by operators-analysts; - (ii) includes a backup system defined on the general network; - (iii) allows for information queries directly on screen or through generation of files and printing of reports; - (iv) has a communications interface with analysts featuring messages, windows, and online help; - (v) includes a security system for controlling access; - (vi) has a built-in auditing system which records user operations. - Computer programs were developed by four specialists, one of whom has continued to perform regular maintenance. - Professional staff trained in all modules of the Price Indices System; supervisors and price collectors trained in data input and generating price reports. - Staff trained in software packages (Excel, Word, and PowerPoint). - For forthcoming change in the CPI base, there are plans to develop a new database system in SQL Server, Oracle, or Sybase. - Facilities, vehicles, and fieldwork arrangements - Premises and office equipment assigned to specialists who compile the CPI are appropriate. - Number of vehicles assigned for price collection work (for the CPI and PPI) is less than required (5), and the vehicle fleet is 15 years old. - Replacement of the fleet is programmed in the budget for the current year. - On data collection days, price collectors receive bonuses for special services in Greater Asunción. - Household Budget Surveys (HBS) - HBS 1990-1991 was conducted with participation from 40 persons: one general coordinator, five supervisors, 25 price collectors, and nine professionals in various other specialties; same staff subsequently involved in CPI updating activities. - HBS 2005-2006 is under way pursuant to a CBP─DGEEC agreement with assistance from the IDB. Methodology proposed was developed with assistance from an international consultant and with active participation of four CBP staff. Field work is coordinated by the Economic Research Directorate of the DGEEC. ### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources are implemented - Planning and workload distribution - DMD expert staff have established procedures for planning and assessing field operations subject to resource availability, including a bi-monthly schedule of visits by geographical areas and distribution of workload among price collectors depending on number of visits and travel distances. - Comparable process used for assigning vehicles. - Data input scheduling and processing deadlines - Inputting of prices is carried out throughout the month to prevent accumulation of forms and avoid having too many price collectors devoted to inputting at the same time due to limited number of available computers. - This scheduling ensures workload for prices can be handled in keeping with the schedule for processing and presenting results (on the 16th and on the last business day of the reference month). - Performance appraisal and HR monitoring - Performance of CBP staff is appraised every half-year; each employee is evaluated by immediate supervisor and must be informed of results. - Appraisal system is currently being revised. - Office of the Manager for Institutional Development maintains systematic record of staff arrivals and departures; system reports number of hours worked by each staff member, and those meeting established minimum are granted five days of leave. - CBP Finance Department monitors execution of the GEE’s budget and expenditure. ### 0.3 Relevance - User engagement and dissemination - The CPI is the official inflation indicator in Paraguay and is widely used. - No formal mechanism for participation of various economic sectors in discussion of requirements for price information, but GEE has held forums with academics and university students, ministries, labor unions, and professional associations to address users’ doubts and explain CPI methodology, results, applications, and restrictions. - Concerns expressed via media are passed forward by a press unit and addressed by the DMD. - In 2005 a statistical information workshop on the CPI was given especially for journalists, covering sources of economic information and focusing on concepts relating to inflation, measurement of inflation using the CPI, preparation of current CPI, estimation of core inflation index, and recent trends. - A workshop on CPI methodology was conducted in January 2006 with participation from reporters from supermarkets, consumer protection organizations, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, and the Municipality of Asunción. - DMD invites user requests (by phone or e-mail) for information on average prices and explanations of indices and changes published on the Internet; frequent requests from banks and finance companies, other public entities, communications agencies, binational entities, students, and national and foreign analysts. - Harmonized CPI for the countries of the expanded MERCOSUR (1999–2004) has been produced and published on the CBP website. ### 0.4 Other quality management - Processes to focus on quality (0.4.1) - Authorities recognize maintaining quality requires constant effort. - In 2003 two international experts were hired to plan and design a new household budget survey and to update the CPI basket and weights. - Paraguay incorporated into harmonized CPI of MERCOSUR countries and Chile; methodological documentation, basket, weights, and monthly results published for 1999–2004 on the CBP website. - Selection and determination of weights for current CPI basket were subject to an external audit conducted by an expert from Spain’s National Statistics Institute (INE). - Coordinators in the National Accounts and Domestic Market Department (DCNMI) have documented CPI methodology and prepared instruction manuals for price collectors and supervisory staff; expert staff trained in all phases of CPI compilation and introductory workshops provided for price collectors. - Processes to monitor quality of statistical program (0.4.2) - DCNMI expert staff established monitoring processes at various stages: planning and supervision of price collection, oversight of completed forms, daily inputting of prices, analysis by establishment for periods t and t-1, comparison across establishments, computerized identification of outlying prices, revisits and verification of causes of changes, verification of inter-month changes at product level, evaluation of aggregated changes, and comparison of price changes using other sources. - Section chiefs and supervisors organize and distribute work to price collectors (three per supervisor) and verify visits occur within established collection dates and norms. - Joint supervisor/price collector work identifies errors/inconsistencies, clarifies doubts, and corrects omissions; special field visits can evaluate price collector activities as necessary. - Establishments assigned to each price collector and date of visit are monitored, enabling checks of field work results. - Processing system can monitor lack of responses by product and establishment and reasons (seasonal product, definitive absence, temporary absence, change in quality). - Since 1992 CPI compilation professionals have participated in 10 international seminars organized by ECLAC, World Bank, and European Union experts on harmonization of consumer price indices for MERCOSUR and Chile. - Processes to deal with quality considerations in planning statistical program (0.4.3) - DCNMI, working with DGEEC, has begun conducting a household budget survey (HBS) aimed at updating basket and weights for CPI, using household income and expenditure for the 2005–2006 period and following concepts and definitions of household consumption expenditure from the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA). - The new CPI will use base year 2007 and will be in line with definitions of the Consumer Price Index Manual (2004). - For HBS development, services of an expert from INDEC in Argentina have been contracted. - For updating the CPI, in 2006 there are plans to carry out internship programs with IBGE (Brazil) and INDEC (Argentina). ### 1. Assurances of integrity #### 1.1 Professionalism - 1.1.1 Statistics are produced on an impartial basis - Price statistics are compiled in accordance with strictly technical criteria; compilers are independent in choosing sources and processing methods. - DCNMI of the CBP is empowered to comment on interpretation or use given to the statistics through the Office of the President of the CBP. - Length of service of incumbent division chief and section chief responsible for CPI compilation exceeds 15 years; they rose through ranks via promotion system with increases every two years. - CPI coordinators have taken specialized courses offered by Eurostat, Spain’s INE, ECLAC, CEMLA, and others. - 1.1.2 Choices of sources/statistical techniques and dissemination decisions - Choices of sources, methodologies, concepts, and statistical procedures used in compiling the CPI are based on international standards adopted by the CBP without regard to non-statistical considerations. - Results are disseminated consistent with recommendations of international organizations; methodological documentation has been prepared and made available to the public. - 1.1.3 Right to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse - CBP monitors media coverage of published indicators and provides explanations of erroneous interpretations via explanatory reports, press releases, and explanatory notes on its website. #### 1.2 Transparency - 1.2.1 Terms and conditions available to the public - CBP website includes economic research and publications, including methodological aspects of CPI base 1992, documents relating to HBS 1990-1991, the statistical study used for selecting basket and weights, and methodology for harmonized CPI of MERCOSUR and Chile. - In past five months, Economic Research Manager explained CPI to media at a press conference covering results for the period, month-to-month changes, cumulative changes, changes by grouping, underlying inflation, main changes by product group, and trends in related variables. - 1.2.2 Internal governmental access prior to release - Terms and conditions covered by CBP Law. No government officials outside the CBP have access to information prior to general release. - Although price statistics are published in a timely manner, there is no data dissemination timetable released in advance. Users are aware of the dissemination schedule. - 1.2.3 Products clearly identified as statistical agency outputs - Methodological documents for HBS 1990-1991 and the change in CPI base year are published in printed documents clearly identified with CBP logotype and DCNMI identification. - Monthly results and detailed reports on CPI behavior are published on the CBP website. - Press releases identify information source as the CBP. - Agreement between CBP and DGEEC establishes CBP has intellectual property rights over documents, records, and reports produced under the contract; DGEEC may use data only with express authorization of CBP; CBP must acknowledge DGEEC participation in publications using the information. - 1.2.4 Advance notice of major methodological changes - Before publication of CPI (base 1992) began, a press conference informed journalists a new series was being introduced and explained major methodological changes; printed methodological document and initial results were distributed. #### 1.3 Ethical standards - 1.3.1 Guidelines for staff behavior - Information Security Regulation approved by Resolution 5 of July 15, 1997 of the CBP Board of Directors establishes guidelines to reduce risk of human error, theft, fraud, or misuse of information and includes disciplinary measures for non-compliance. - CBP personnel regulations govern working relationships and define duties and obligations; Article 44.2 of regulations dated 9/14/89 requires department director to inform new staff of organization, functioning, powers, duties, and responsibilities. - Price collector manuals (HBS-CPI) highlight legal principles imposing duty to observe discretion and confidentiality on officials, employees, auditors, and price collectors designated to carry out statistical investigations. - Experts who perform data analysis are not authorized to modify the original data provided by reporters. *Source: _cr06243 - 0.2 Resources* ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - The conceptual framework for the HBS 1990–1991 and the basket of goods and services and weights for the CPI (base 1992) adhere to the concepts and definitions of household consumer spending of SNA 1968. - The concepts and definitions used in the CPI generally follow internationally accepted standards, in accordance with the definitions of the Consumer Price Index Manual. - Prices collected are the market prices paid by households at the various points of sale where they engage in transactions and include all the taxes levied on the goods and services traded. - Products are classified using an adaptation of the classification of household consumption expenditure by purpose (HCEP) in accordance with SNA 1968. - The index is calculated for seven main groupings of goods and services: - (i) food; - (ii) clothing and footwear; - (iii) housing, including household equipment; - (iv) healthcare; - (v) transportation; - (vi) education and reading material; and - (vii) sundry expenditure. - Indices are calculated at the item, subgroup, group, grouping, and total levels. - The CPI basket is disaggregated to seven major groupings, 39 groups, 93 subgroups, and 293 goods and services (representative of 75.8 percent of household expenditure according to the HBS). - For each good, various varieties are researched (commonly consumed, permanently on the market, readily observable prices); varieties are described by generic description, quality, and unit of measurement. Open specifications allow adjustment for brand name, weight, and origin (domestic or imported). - Services are described comparably; the system allows replacement of varieties or specifications when they cease to be available. ### 2.2 Scope - The CPI is calculated for the Asunción metropolitan area; the national CPI was compiled up until 2001 and was suspended due to budget constraints and because there were no significant differences between national and metropolitan price trends. - Indices are representative of the consumption of the urban population only. - The domain of study (geographic coverage and basket and weights) is based on the HBS conducted by the CBP in the period June 1990-June 1991. - Coverage includes all resident households in the Asunción metropolitan area, which represented 73.4 percent of the urban population in 1990 according to DGEEC estimates. The urban population constitutes 47 percent of the total population. - The HBS was applied to a representative sample of individual households: 2,500 households nationally and 1,460 households in the metropolitan area. - Consumer expenditure excludes goods and services that increase net worth or are for productive activity; goods produced by the household for own consumption and wages paid in kind are not included. - Excluded expenditures: dwelling remodeling and expansion, participation in games of chance, donations, theft, losses, transfers to third parties, and purchase of vehicles (vehicles excluded due to secondary market prevalence and illegal origins at the time of the survey). - Insurance is not included in the CPI basket. - CPI weights exclude imputed rent of owner-occupied dwellings or dwellings used by third parties without payments (this differs from the previous CPI series, base 1980, which did include imputed rent). - CPI excludes expenditures not imputable to consumption (e.g., financial services, legal and notarial services, contributions, transfers to third parties) and social transfers from government to households (health and education). ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - Products are classified using an adaptation of HCEP in accordance with SNA 1968. - The index is calculated for the seven main groupings listed under 2.1, with indices at item, subgroup, group, grouping, and total levels. ### 2.4 Basis for recording - Prices collected in the CPI are the market prices paid by households and include all taxes levied on goods and services; prices of merchandise in liquidation, special discounts, and subsidies are excluded. - Consumption values used to determine CPI weights (HBS 1990-1991) were valued at purchase price, including merchandising and shipping markups and taxes, minus applicable subsidies. - Recording is on an accrual basis: measurement uses the method of what is purchased or accrued, including goods and services received in the HBS reference period regardless of payment completion or use timing. - For household purchases of automobiles on the secondary market, the HBS records the net value offsetting purchases and sales of the same kind of property; automobiles were not included in the CPI basket. ### 3 Accuracy and reliability #### 3.1 Source data - The CPI is compiled using procedures and methodologies where the basket and weights derive from probabilistic household income and expenditure surveys using concepts consistent with international standards; samples are selected from updated frameworks. - Regular DGEEC household surveys do not provide sufficient information for updating the CPI goods basket; CBP has conducted other household income and expenditure surveys for CPI and national accounts purposes. - As part of the Program on Strengthening Economic and Financial Statistics (ATN-7622-PR) and in coordination with the DGEEC and assistance from the IDB, CBP launched a new household budget survey with reference period 2005-2006. - The CPI basket and weighting structure (base 1992) were constructed using the Third Household Budget Survey (HBS) carried out by the DCNMI in 1990–1991; the reference period ran from June 20, 1990 to June 19, 1991. - Sample framework for HBS 1990–1991: 500 AEs selected, subdivided into four stages (125 AEs in each stage). - Household sample design: two-stage probabilistic for auto represented stratum of Asunción (first stage: selection of AEs; second stage: equal probability selection of households); three-stage for Rest of Greater Asunción (first stage: selection districts; second stage: selection of AEs; third stage: equal probability selection of households). District selection considered importance within total households estimated for 1990. - Final sample size: 2,500 households distributed between domains with probability proportional to population (Greater Asunción: 1,460 households and Interior: 1,040 Households). This sample represents 47 percent of the total estimated population for 1990. - Of the 2,500 goods and services identified in household consumption in 1990–1991, the CPI basket used 293 products representing 75.8 percent of household expenditure. - Selection criterion: products with a relative share equal to or exceeding 0.1 percent and/or products consumed by at least 15 percent of households. - Expenditure corresponding to remaining products not included (24.2 percent) was distributed among similar products or proportionally among groups, subgroups, and products investigated. - Establishments were classified by type and location where households regularly purchase goods and services; sample selected for stable establishments with high probability of remaining on the market. No unstable or informal establishments included. - Product variety selection used a pilot study identifying varieties meeting: customary consumption, reasonable expectation of remaining on the market, and readily observable prices. Specifications (brand name, weight, unit) captured per establishment. - CPI allows replacement by similar establishments in same zone if an establishment closes, ceases to be representative, or is unwilling to report. - Prices investigated via direct interviews at 588 points representative of consumer purchase locations; approximately 6,000 price observations are made per month. - Data verification: logical consistency via month-to-month comparisons within the same establishment and among establishments of same type using computerized tools; monthly price fluctuations outside predetermined interval lead to repeat consultations. - Rent price investigated via survey of 100 rented dwellings divided into two panels of 50; each panel rerun every other month; in months when a panel is not rerun, the immediately preceding price is maintained. - Prices of gas-oil, power, water, telephone services, and transport fares are observed by reviewing Executive Branch decrees or decisions by responsible entities. - Questionnaires record prices of product varieties and individual specifications within each establishment. - CPI consistency analysis uses average price data from other official sources (Ministry of Industry and Commerce, Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, Directorate of Supply of the Municipality of Asunción). #### 3.2 Assessment of source data - HBS 1990–1991 response rate: 89 percent. - The CPI processing system monitors lack of responses by product and establishment and causes (seasonal product, definitive absence, temporary absence, change in quality); this informs replacements, deactivation, or activation decisions. Percentage of non-responses estimated at under 5 percent. - No record is maintained of the number of prices collected for each product, so coverage monitoring is incomplete. - Design of the prices sample for the CPI is not based on analysis of standard errors or coefficients of variation; processing programs do not include calculations of relative errors. - CPI processing programs generate reports showing outlying prices; analysts evaluate flagged prices daily and validate them; outlying prices and atypical situations are verified through supervision visits and recorded with observations. - The final household consumption expenditure not covered by the CPI basket is approximately 24.2 percent; amount for products not investigated is distributed among selected products per established criteria. #### 3.3 Statistical techniques - CPI calculation follows internationally recommended practices, using the modified Laspeyres formula. - Base period for CPI: the year 1992; weights from HBS 1990–1991 were updated to reflect price changes from survey period to the mean for 1992. - CPI validation occurs at the level of primary data from individual price observations and at various aggregation levels. - Indices for individual products are calculated based on averages of observed prices. - Instances of non-response are minimal (temporary or definitive absence, nonresponse, seasonality); when they occur the procedure is to eliminate them from calculation for the corresponding period to ensure comparability of elementary price indices (information included for establishments investigated in both t and t-1). Price is reincorporated when product appears for two consecutive months. - Product varieties disappearing permanently are replaced after two consecutive months without prices; replacements are performed by supervisors and section chiefs during validation. - Data collection forms have reporter’s code preassigned; coding is performed by supervisor and verified by section chief. The data input module links reporter and products, displays preceding price and collection code, facilitates identification of changes in brand name, unit of measurement, or origin, and helps add new reporters and assign related products—reducing input time and coding/input errors. - Both the HBS (1990–1991) framework and the CPI (base 1992) basket and weights follow 1968 SNA guidelines; weights include household purchases in all markets including the informal market for goods and services included in consumption expenditure. - CPI weights exclude imputed rent of owner-occupied dwellings or dwellings used by third parties for which no payments are made; CPI also excludes housing construction or remodeling. - Recorded value of goods and services represents the economic cost to the consumer at purchase, whether payment completed or not and regardless of timing of use. - Goods and services produced by the household for own consumption are excluded (primary products from agriculture, hunting, fishing and their processing, in-kind withdrawals or self-supply, grants in kind received, and social benefits). - Formula for elementary (item) indices: ratio of average prices, with short-term relatives, measuring changes in average prices of current month relative to preceding month. - Integration from elementary indices to subgroups, groups, grouping, and general level uses a modified Laspeyres formula. - Index weights have not been updated in the past 13 years; HBS 2005–2006 has been started with a view to selecting 2007 as a new base year for the CPI. - When the new CPI series begins, coefficients will be determined to chain it with prior series. The annual series covering 1950–2005 is available at the general level and for four groupings. The monthly series were chained for the four main coincident groupings starting from 1964 and for the seven main groupings starting from 1990. This task was accomplished in December 2004. *Source: _cr06243 - 2. Methodological soundness* ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs ### _cr06243 - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - Intermediate results for the CPI are validated against those reported for the PPI for products appearing in both. - The section chief validates primary data by: - Reviewing average prices for each product. - Comparing prices for two successive periods (t and t-1). - Evaluating outlying prices and checking reporters’ explanations. - Making necessary adjustments when prices are not properly justified. - Recalculating average price and checking the impact of adjustments. - Supplementing analysis with press information and reports from the Directorate-General of Consumer Protection in the Ministry of Industry and Commerce. - Discrepancies are analyzed and reasons explained. - There is no evaluation of discrepancies produced by the inclusion and removal of missing prices in the calculation of average prices. ### 3.5 Revision studies - CPI figures are final when first published. - Analysis of the HBS 1990–1991 led to appraisal of the new consumption structure and changes in main coincident groups; relevant changes were checked and reasons determined during the preparatory phase for the change in CPI base year. - No periodic reviews are carried out to assess possible effects on the CPI of changes in the weighting structure. - No special studies are carried out to investigate sources of price collection errors. ### 4 Serviceability — Periodicity, Timeliness, and Consistency - Periodicity and timeliness - Price collection and compilation for the CPI are carried out daily to ensure the index is produced half-monthly and monthly in accordance with the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) and the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). - The CPI is compiled half-monthly but disseminated on the last day of the reference month or the first business day of the following month. - CPI compilation begins in the first week of the month and ends on the last business day of the reference month; CPI must be published not later than the first day of the following month. - Publication is by press release and on the CBP website; CBP adheres to SDDS and GDDS standards. - Consistency within and across datasets - CPI estimates use classifications: (i) groupings of goods and services; (ii) domestic goods and imported goods; (iii) tradable and nontradable products. Aggregated indices for each classification are the same. - The current CPI series began in December 1994 and has been published regularly monthly. - The new series is chained with prior series: annual series covering 1950–2005 and monthly series for 1964─2005. Chaining begins in December 1994; the chained series do not replicate base 100 = 1992 because there are no coincident series using base 1992. - CPI results are reconciled with PPI for overlapping products; an index for core inflation and a harmonized index for MERCOSUR and Chile are calculated and reconcilable with the CPI. ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - Revisions follow a regular and transparent schedule - CPI figures are not subject to revision following publication. - The household income and expenditure survey used as the basis for the CPI calculation basket is conducted at intervals of more than 10 years. - The documented Metodología del Cambio de Año Base compares baskets for 1980 and 1992 and analyzes major grouping-level changes. - Identification of preliminary and/or revised data - CPI figures are not revised; if an error is identified, explanations are provided and corrected data are clearly identified. - Studies and analyses of revisions made public - Metodología del Cambio de Año Base (published by CBP when the new CPI series began) compares baskets for 1980 and 1992 and analyzes major grouping-level changes; the document covers methodological issues for both the CPI and the HBS 1990–1991 and is published in print for major users and available in the CBP library. ### 5 Accessibility — Data, Metadata, and User Assistance - Data accessibility and dissemination formats - Data accessibility in Paraguay is good in published form and via direct services by compilers. - Methodology for CPI and PPI disseminated in CBP publication Índices de Precios—Metodología. - Monthly CPI published in tabular and graphic forms consistent with internationally accepted presentations; publications include monthly CPI series and changes vis-à-vis the prior month, December of the preceding year, and the same month of the previous year, disaggregated by groupings and other classifications (domestic vs. imported, tradable vs. nontradable, core inflation). - Monthly press brief with tables and charts and explanation of major changes is posted on the website. - Results disseminated via press release, Informe Mensual sobre el Comportamiento del IPC, and CBP website. Recent data and extensive time series are available in Excel format on the Internet. - Release schedule and equality of access - There is no preannounced schedule for CPI publication dates. - CPI for Metropolitan Asunción is released on the last business day of the reference month or the first business day of the following month. - Statistics are released simultaneously to all users; no government officials outside CBP have access prior to public release. - Non-routine data and user services - DMD provides user services: queries, photocopies, printouts; all data available at CBP library. - Special requests handled by fax, electronic mail, or in writing. - Metadata accessibility - Documentation on concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques is available; differences from international standards are annotated. - Methodological documentation for HBS 1990–1991 and the CPI base year change published in print by CBP; covers CPI compilation, calculation formula, basket, weighting, methodological framework (1968 SNA), data collection instruments, household sample design, domains, response rates, results, and comparative analysis against previous survey. - Methodological document on Harmonized CPI for MERCOSUR and Chile includes an annex on Paraguay’s CPI methodological aspects and comparisons. - Levels of detail and user assistance - CBP website and library provide access to methodological documents, monthly bulletins, and press releases; DMD allows consultation of reference documents such as the ILO Consumer Price Index Manual, SNA 1968 and 1993, and classification systems (ISIC, CPC). - Users have a single contact point (electronic, fax, or mail) with CBP but not direct contacts for individual statistical programs; requests are distributed to DMD specialists. - No systematic controls measure response times; majority of queries handled by electronic mail. Time series and public data are addressed in less than a week; formal requests requiring institutional approval take additional time. - Catalogs and publications (Índices de Precios—Metodología del CBP; Informe CPI, Índice de Precios al Consumidor 1950-2005; CPI Armonizado MERCOSUR y Chile) available in CBP library; some accessible via CBP website. ### Table 2 — Data Quality Assessment Framework (July 2003): Key findings and planned improvements - Resource and scope issues - Human resources sufficient for CPI compilation but not for additional planned tasks (preparing new CPI with updated weights). Computing resources inadequate. - Technical assistance and financing needed to evaluate Household Budget Survey 2005/2006 as source for new CPI weights. Training needed for National Accounts and Domestic Market Department staff. - CPI weights representative only of urban households of Asunción. - Imputed rentals of owner-occupied dwellings and purchases of new vehicles are missing from the CPI. - Share of consumption expenditure not covered by the index is 24 percent. - Plan: compile a new CPI with broader share of consumption expenditure and geographic coverage. - Accuracy and methodological shortcomings - Sampling and nonsampling errors are not calculated; plan to assess CPI data source and sampling efficiency. - Missing prices are not imputed. - Quality adjustments and seasonal products are excluded from the index for the month in question and reincorporated once returned to the market for two consecutive months. - Weights have not been updated in the last 13 years. - Imputed rentals of owner-occupied dwellings are missing. - Planned improvements: improve collection and processing procedures; review scope, product classification, price collection, treatment of seasonal products, missing items, quality changes, and introduction of new products; process HBS 2005/2006 to update index base weights and update the new basket. - Serviceability and accessibility actions - There is an internal publication schedule but not publicly announced; BCP will prepare and publish advance release calendars in accordance with GDDS recommendations. - Only a general contact point is provided; plan to improve dissemination of contact points by e-mail and on the web page. ### Producer Price Index — institutional and legal framework (summary) - Price Statistics compiled by the National Accounts and Domestic Market Department (DCNMI) of the Office of the Manager for Economic Research (GEE) of the Central Bank of Paraguay (CBP). - Legal basis: Law 489/95 authorizes information requests and guarantees confidentiality; Article 82 covers preparation and publication of statistics; Articles 6, 7, and 8 address confidentiality. Article 88 of Law No. 861/96 establishes disciplinary measures for confidentiality breaches. - Data sharing and sample frames for the PPI use administrative records, censuses, and directories from UIP, Directorate-General of Customs, Under Secretariat of Mines and Energy (MOPC), Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAG), and CBP National Accounts Division. - Agricultural price information mainly from Directorate of Agricultural Economy and Marketing (MAG) and Directorate of Supply of the Municipality of Asunción (DAMA). - Confidentiality and respondent cooperation - Reporting units receive an introductory letter identifying the price collector, explaining objectives, and assuring confidentiality. - Access to individual data restricted to responsible specialists with assigned codes; Information Security Regulation (Resolution 5, Minute 136) communicated in writing and via CBP website. - Forms identify institution, program, date, field staff, and establishment codes; forms filed for approximately five years then moved to archives. - Statistical reporting is mandated by Article 80 of the Law on the Central Bank of Paraguay; response rate for PPI updating (base December 1995) was 98 percent. Updates were announced on radio, television, and press; methodology and initial results were published. *Source: _cr06243 - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs* ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2.1 Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing are commensurate with statistical programs - The Domestic Market Division (DMD) has a total staff of 17 (a division chief, three section chiefs, four supervisors, and nine price collectors) responsible for the monthly compilation of the CPI and PPI, as well as a half-yearly wage index. - Compilation of the PPI accounts for 22 percent of the total hours worked by the DMD. - The DMD is engaged in special studies, including the International Comparisons Program (ICP) of the World Bank and participation in the development and monitoring of the CBP-DGEEC agreement on conducting the HBS 2005–2006. - Roles and responsibilities: - Price collectors: collect prices, input and verify transcribed data. - Supervisors: oversight over price collection, produce reports on primary data, validate prices and price changes, verify outlying prices. - Section chiefs: coordinate field work, process data, prepare tables featuring indices and changes. - Division chief and chief of the Analysis Section: formulate study methodologies, analyze indicators, write monthly reports and presentations. - Staffing assessment: - Staffing level is considered minimally adequate for handling the current workload, but insufficient for developmental work. - To cover vacancies from staff assignments to special projects, expansion by adding one supervisor and three price collectors would be necessary. - Qualifications: - Expert staff (division chief and section chiefs) for the PPI have professional university degrees with training in economics and statistics. - Price collectors must hold bachelor’s degrees with introductory studies in economics. - Supervisors must have a minimum of three years’ experience as price collectors. - Compensation and tenure: - Compensation of PPI personnel is competitive by comparison with other public sector employees. - Average length of service for the division chief and section chief positions exceeds 15 years. - For field staff (supervisors and price collectors), turnover to other BCP units is high; average length of service is three to four years. - Promotion system: - Promotion provides for increases every two years within the job category scale. - Beginning in 2006 these increases will be based on a merit-testing basis coordinated by the Office of the Manager for Institutional Development and Management, based on a staff appraisal using a system which assigns weights to extraordinary productivity, honesty, loyalty, devotion, seniority, and the completion of a course of study at a recognized university. - Computer resources and systems: - A computer is assigned to each professional, while a shared computer is assigned for every three technical staff. - Most hardware lacks sufficient capacity. - The database is designed in FoxPro, version 2.2, running on Novell NetWare version 3.1, and has the capacity to process large volumes of information. - Strengths of the processing system: - (i) permits simultaneous operation by operators-analysts; - (ii) includes a backup system defined on the general network; - (iii) allows for information queries directly on screen or through the generation of files and printing of reports; - (iv) has a communications interface with analysts featuring messages, windows, and online help; - (v) includes a security system for controlling access; - (vi) has a built-in auditing system which records user operations. - Computer programs were developed by two specialists, one of whom has continued to perform regular maintenance. - Professional staff trained in all modules of the Price Indices System; supervisors and price collectors trained in data input and generating price reports. - Staff trained in Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. - Premises and equipment: - Premises and office equipment assigned to specialists who compile the PPI are appropriate. - Vehicles and logistics: - Number of vehicles assigned for price collection work (for the CPI and PPI) is less than required (5), and the vehicle fleet is 15 years old. - The expenditure budget for 2006 includes resources for renewing the fleet. - On data collection days, price collectors receive bonuses for special services in Greater Asunción. - Updating the basket and weights (December 1995 base): - Preliminary phase involved two professional staff for designing the basket and determining weights. - Computer system designed by adapting the CPI system. - Selection of sample of establishments, products, and specifications performed by a team of DCNMI personnel: one project coordinator, one supervisor, one price collector, and two DCN professionals. - The study benefited from the services of an international consultant. ### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources are implemented - Planning and field operations: - Expert staff established procedures for planning and assessing field operations subject to resource availability. - Monthly schedule of visits by geographical areas prepared; workload distributed among price collectors depending on number of visits and travel distances. - Comparable process used for assigning vehicles. - Data input scheduling: - Inputting of prices is carried out throughout the month to prevent accumulation of forms and avoid too many price collectors devoted to the task at the same time owing to limited number of available computers. - This scheduling ensures workload can be handled in keeping with processing and presentation schedule (on the 10th to 15th of the following month). - Staff appraisal and records: - Performance of BCRD staff is appraised every half-year. - Each employee evaluated by immediate supervisor and must be informed of appraisal results. - Appraisal system is currently being revised. - Office of the Manager for Institutional Development maintains systematic record of staff arrivals and departures, reports number of hours worked by each staff member, and those meeting established minimum are granted five days of leave. ### 0.3 Relevance #### 0.3.1 The relevance and practical utility of existing statistics in meeting users’ needs are monitored - User feedback and outreach: - Concerns expressed through the media are passed forward by a press unit and subsequently addressed by the DMD. - DMD invites user requests (by phone or e-mail) for information on the indices and changes published on the Internet. - Requests frequently received from the financial sector (banks and finance companies), other public entities, communications agencies, binational entities, students, and national and foreign analysts. - Uses and stakeholder engagement: - Along with the CPI, the PPI is an official indicator of price trends in Paraguay and is widely used as a deflator in estimates of the national accounts at constant prices and for adjustments in the values of certain fixed assets by enterprises. - No formal mechanism established for participation of various economic sectors in discussion of requirements for price information at national and international levels. - In recent years the GEE has held forums with academics and university students, ministries, labor unions, and professional associations to address users’ doubts and explain methodological aspects, results, applications, and restrictions. ### 0.4 Other quality management #### 0.4.1 Processes are in place to focus on quality - PPI update context: - The PPI (December 1995 base) was developed to replace the earlier MPI indicator (base 1972), which had become outdated. - Updating involved serious limitations owing to the lack of recent censuses and economic surveys, obligating compilers to use other types of information to configure the basket and index weights. - Documentation and training: - Coordinators in DCNMI have documented PPI methodology and prepared instruction manuals for price collectors and supervisory staff. - Training provided to all expert staff in all phases of PPI compilation work and introductory workshops given to price collectors. #### 0.4.2 Processes are in place to monitor the quality of the statistical program - Quality monitoring processes established by DCNMI expert staff covering stages: - (i) planning and supervision of price collection; - (ii) oversight of completed forms; - (iii) daily inputting of prices collected; - (iv) analysis of prices by establishment for two consecutive periods (t and t-1); - (v) comparison of prices and changes across establishments; - (vi) computerized identification of outlying prices; - (vii) revisits and verification of causes of changes; - (viii) verification of inter-month changes at product level; - (ix) evaluation of aggregated changes; - (x) comparison of price changes in specific areas of study (domestic products and imported products). - Supervisory procedures: - Section chiefs and supervisors organize and distribute work to price collectors (three per supervisor) and verify visits to reporting establishments are carried out within established collection dates and norms. - Joint supervisor/price collector work identifies errors and inconsistencies, clarifies doubts, and corrects omissions. - Special field visits conducted as necessary to evaluate price collector activities. - Monitoring and system functions: - Establishments assigned to each price collector and date of visit are monitored to verify field work results. - Processing system monitors lack of responses by product or establishment and records causes (seasonal product, definitive absence, temporary absence, change in quality). - Computer system facilitates printing of questionnaires, inputting of prices by establishment or product, and generation of reports for validating transcribed data. #### 0.4.3 Processes are in place to deal with quality considerations in planning the statistical program - National accounts and supply-use tables: - As part of implementation of the Paraguayan System of National Accounts (SCNPY), and with cooperation of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the CBP has been developing a medium-term program for implementing the SNA 1993. - Initial stage will include development of supply and use tables covering a seven-year period (1991-1997) at current and constant prices. - These supply and use tables could be used as additional sources of information to address weaknesses and omissions in basic statistics, including definition of a basket of broad-based products and determination of PPI weights in accordance with 1993 SNA. - DGEEC projects: - Conducting a national economic census, with steps taken to arrange a special loan from the IDB. - Providing technical assistance to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock for the conduct of an agricultural census. ### 1. Assurances of integrity #### 1.1 Professionalism ##### 1.1.1 Statistics are produced on an impartial basis - Price statistics are compiled in accordance with strictly technical criteria; compilers are independent in choosing sources of information and processing methods. - The DCNMI of the CBP has authority to comment on interpretation or use of the statistics through the Office of the President of the CBP. - Length of service of the incumbent division chief and section chief responsible for PPI compilation exceeds 15 years; they rose through ranks via promotion system with increases every two years. - PPI coordinators have taken specialized courses in price indicators, statistical techniques, sampling, and predictive models offered by Eurostat, Spain’s INE, ECLAC, CEMLA, and others. ##### 1.1.2 Choices of sources and statistical techniques as well as decisions about dissemination are informed solely by statistical considerations - Choices of sources, methodologies, concepts, and statistical procedures used in compiling the PPI are based on international standards. - Technical criteria alone are applied by compilers who are independent in their choice of data sources, methods, and data dissemination policies within limits of available resources. - Results are disseminated in a manner consistent with recommendations of international organizations; methodological documentation has been prepared and made available to the user public. ##### 1.1.3 The appropriate statistical entity is entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics - The CBP monitors media coverage of published indicators and provides explanations of erroneous interpretations through explanatory reports, press releases, and explanatory notes on its website. #### 1.2 Transparency ##### 1.2.1 The terms and conditions under which statistics are collected, processed, and disseminated are available to the public - CBP website includes a section on economic research and publications, including major methodological aspects relating to compilation of the PPI (base December 1995). - Available documents include the central framework of the Paraguayan System of National Accounts (SCNPY), a practical case study on preparation of supply and use tables, and an introduction to the new Paraguayan national accounts (base 1994). ##### 1.2.2 Internal governmental access to statistics prior to their release is publicly identified - Terms and conditions under which price statistics are prepared are covered by the CBP Law. - No government officials outside the BCP have access to the information prior to its release to the general public. - Although price statistics are published relatively timely, there is no data dissemination timetable released in advance. ##### 1.2.3 Products of statistical agencies/units are clearly identified as such - Methodological documents for the PPI (base December 1995) are published in printed documents identified with the CBP logotype and identification of the DCNMI. - Month-to-month changes in the PPI by sections are published in the monthly economic report. - The half-yearly report includes the monthly indices for domestic products and imported products, classified by grouping and for the grand total. #### 1.3 Ethical standards ##### 1.3.1 Guidelines for staff behavior are in place and are well known to the staff - Information Security Regulation approved by Resolution 5 of July 15, 1997 of the CBP Board of Directors establishes behavioral guidelines to reduce risk of human error, theft, fraud, or misuse of information; includes disciplinary measures. - CBP personnel regulations govern working relationships, define duties and obligations, and require department director to inform new staff of organization, functioning, powers, duties, and responsibilities (Article 44.2 of regulations dated 9/14/89). - Functions of the GEE and its units are delineated in detail in the Functions Manual of the Office of the Manager for Economic Research (approved by Resolution 12 of May 27, 1996). - Price collector manuals highlight legal principles imposing duty to observe discretion and confidentiality; experts who perform data analysis are not authorized to modify original data provided by reporters. ### 2. Methodological soundness #### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - Overall structure follows internationally accepted standards, in accordance with definitions of the Producer Price Index Manual. - PPI subsystems: - (i) producer price indices of domestic goods intended for the domestic market; - (ii) import price indices. - PPI exclusions: - Does not include exports of goods or production for own consumption (basically in the case of agricultural goods). - Weights: - For goods of domestic origin, weights are based on the gross value of output at producer prices. - For imported goods indices, weights correspond to supply of goods on the domestic market and are determined by the value of the imports (c.i.f. plus import duties). - Product descriptions: - Products investigated at each establishment are accurately described in terms of quality, unit of measurement, and forms of presentation and transaction. - Prices measured: - Prices measured are those received by the producer or importer at the first stage of marketing and do not include distribution markups or taxes on the products. - Aggregation and classification: - PPI estimates are aggregated by products: (i) agricultural products; (ii) livestock products; (iii) forestry and logging products; (iv) minerals; (v) food, beverages and tobacco, textiles, wearing apparel and leather goods; (vi) nonmetallic transportable goods; and (vii) metal products, machinery, and equipment. - Products disaggregated according to the Central Product Classification (CPC) of the United Nations to five digits (Grouping, Section, Group, Subgroup, and Product). #### 2.2 Scope - Coverage: - Producer price indices for goods of national origin measure changes in prices on the domestic market for goods produced by agriculture, forestry, mining and quarrying, and manufacturing. - Price indices for imports cover imported goods originating in same activities, with exception of agricultural and forestry products. - Exclusions: - PPI does not include activities in respect of power, water, construction, commercial services, or other services. - Sample selection: - Sample includes enterprises accounting for a high percentage of production of the good in question whose production is primarily intended for the domestic market and considered leaders within the goods market. - Small enterprises (whether or not incorporated) are not included, nor are illegal markets. - Methodological notes and limitations: - Methodological notes for the PPI (December 1995 base) explicitly state scope of coverage of weights and prices investigated. - Limitations in scope in relation to 1993 SNA are not mentioned, though reference is made to usefulness of supply and use tables for selection of basket and determination of PPI weights. - At time of selection, preparation of supply and use tables had not been completed; they are part of the program for changing the base year of Paraguay’s national accounts. *Source: _cr06243 - 0.2 Resources* ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization ### Classification/sectorization systems used - Product classification corresponds to the Central Product Classification (CPC) of the United Nations. - Domestic goods are grouped into seven groupings of products: - (i) agricultural products; - (ii) livestock products; - (iii) forestry and logging products; - (iv) minerals; - (v) food, beverages and tobacco, wearing apparel and leather goods; - (vi) nonmetallic transportable goods; and - (vii) metal products, machinery, and equipment. - Indices are calculated at Product, subgroup, group, section, grouping, and total levels. - The index excludes imports of agricultural, livestock, and forestry and logging products. - Establishments producing domestic goods are classified by major economic activity in accordance with ISIC rev. 2. ### Basis for recording - Market prices are used to value flows and stocks: - Value of output (weighting variable for domestic products index) is expressed in producer prices. - Value of imports (weight for imported products) is expressed in c.i.f., prices plus import duties. - Price concepts: - Prices for goods of domestic origin: producer’s sale prices ex-establishment, excluding value-added tax. - Prices of imported goods: market prices sold by importers, including all import taxes plus importer distribution markups and other transaction taxes, except value-added tax. - Recording basis: - Weighting variables come from the system of national accounts, where transactions are accounted for at market prices and on an accrual basis. - Grossing/netting: - Prices investigated are producer’s sale prices ex-establishment and do not record transactions between establishments in the same enterprise. - Valuation of output for transactions between establishments in the same enterprise is recorded at transfer prices. ### Source data — coverage, timeliness, and representativeness - No regular program of surveys of enterprises and establishments for devising the basket and estimating weights for the PPI; no recent economic censuses. - DCNMI conducts some special surveys based on sample frameworks that have not been updated, limiting coverage and representativeness. - Sources used to compile weights and select goods: - (i) national accounts estimates; - (ii) 1991 agricultural census; - (iii) 1992 national forestry census; - (iv) mine and quarry census by DCNMI; - (v) national accounts estimates for manufacturing based on the 1963 industrial census and supplemented by special studies and a 1994 survey of 141 enterprises associated with the Paraguayan Industrial Union; - (vi) import records from Customs for the 1990–1992 period. - Weight adjustments: - Output values adjusted to reflect activity shares in gross value of output for 1995 using national accounts estimates. - Weights for imported goods adjusted using import values for 1995. - Coverage statistics: - Activities selected for domestic goods basket represent 88.4 percent of the goods GDP in 1995 (at constant 1982 prices). - Goods production represents 47.1 percent of total GDP for 1995. - Activities included in the domestic PPI represent 41.7 percent of GDP for 1995. - Goods selected: 150 products total — 125 domestic products and 25 imported products — represent 70-80 percent of the production value or import value of the corresponding economic activity for the reference year of the source data. - Sample framework and selection: - Sample framework not updated for all activities, especially manufacturing, limiting sampling methods and error calculation. - Sample of establishments investigated: 185 producing establishments and 74 importers. - Selection criteria: (i) significant importance in production volume; (ii) stability in activity; (iii) recognized leadership among enterprises producing/importing the good; (iv) enterprise production intended mainly for the domestic market. - Agricultural prices: - Prices taken from administrative records of official sources (Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock) for 16 products. - Collected daily in main storage and distribution centers in Encarnación, Ciudad del Este, and Asunción, supplying approximately 80 percent of the population. - Also gathered from agricultural producers’ cooperatives and other municipal markets. - Price-data detail and validation: - Remainder of basket: 643 prices per month, sufficiently detailed to estimate changes at two-digit ISIC Rev. 2 (for selected activities) and four-digit CPC. - Agricultural product prices are averages derived from a database. - PPI consistency analysis uses average prices from other official sources (Ministry of Industry and Commerce, Directorate of Supply of the Municipality of Asunción). - Base-period information: - New PPI base: December 1995 represents an improvement over previous index (base 1972) due to updated basket and weightings, but representativeness remains limited due to lack of censuses, surveys, and updated directories. ### Assessment of source data - DCNMI broadened source database for SNA 1993 implementation and change of base year; structural statistics and special studies on supply and use tables could improve scope, classifications, and valuation of weights. - Timeliness of source data: - Agricultural prices recorded daily and finalized in second week of the month following the reference month. - PPI collection and processing timetable: - (i) complete collection in the fourth week of the month under study; - (ii) incorporate agricultural prices and complete processing in the second week of the month after the reference month; - (iii) publish data in the economic report and on the website in the final week of the month following the reference month. - Assessment practices: - Sample framework not updated for all activities, especially manufacturing. - PPI processing programs generate outlier reports; analysts evaluate flagged prices daily and verify through supervision visits; confirmed or modified prices recorded with observations. - Administrative records compared with other sources and CPI prices. - Activities in domestic goods basket represent a low percentage of 1995 GDP (41.6 percent). ### Statistical techniques and compilation methods - Data collection and coding: - Forms have reporter’s code preassigned; coding by supervisor verified by section chief. - Data input module links reporter to products, displays previous price and collection code, facilitates identification of special situations and adding new reporters. - Non-response handling: - Instances of non-response minimal; missing prices are not input and are eliminated from index calculation for the corresponding period. - Checks ensure establishments investigated in period t provided information in period t-1 and vice versa; product reincorporated when it appears for two consecutive months. - Product replacement: product varieties disappearing permanently are replaced after two consecutive months of no prices. - Outlying prices verified by revisiting reporting establishment. - Noted bias: procedure produces biases in estimation of average prices due to constant recomposition of product varieties. - Weights and valuation: - Weights for domestic goods based on gross value of output at producer prices. - Weights for imported goods correspond to supply of goods on domestic market, determined by import value (c.i.f., plus import duties). - Weightings exclude domestic goods intended for export and goods intended for own consumption. - Work in progress not valued; stocks data not used for production estimates of domestic goods. - Gross value of production determined using national accounts estimates for 1995 via indirect estimation methods. - Price concept and formula: - Price recorded for goods is the producer price at time of sale; does not include distribution costs, surcharges for sales on credit, or VAT-type taxes. - PPI calculated using modified Laspeyres formula with short-term relatives. - Elementary level formula: ratio of average prices with short-term relatives measuring change of average prices current month vs immediately preceding month. - Aggregation: elemental short-term indices integrated using base-period weights updated to prior-month prices; national index is weighted average of domestic and imported goods indices. - Heterogeneous products: average price affected by outlying values, possibly biasing elementary price relatives. - Base period and series continuity: - Base period for PPI prices: December 1995; prices for December 1995 were not adjusted. - For subsequent periods weights adjusted in light of price changes. - Reference period for the weights has not been updated in the last 10 years. - No combined PPI series with earlier series (MPI base 1972). ### Validation, revisions, and quality control - Intermediate validation: - Intermediate results validated against CPI for products appearing in both. - Analysts validate primary data, review prices, compare average prices for t and t-1, evaluate outliers, check reporters’ explanations, make adjustments, recalculate averages, and assess impact; supplemented by press and other price sources. - Discrepancy analysis: - Experts compare index changes at subgroup, group, section, grouping, and general levels for each domain (domestic and imported) and analyze impact on aggregated total. - No evaluation of discrepancies produced by inclusion/removal of missing prices in average price calculations. - Revision studies and practices: - PPI figures are final when first published. - Analysis performed during change of base year (December 1995) compared new basket/weights with former MPI (1972 base) and evaluated main overlapping groups; most relevant changes checked with reasons determined. - No periodic reviews to assess effects of changes in weighting structure. - No special studies to investigate sources of price collection errors. ### Serviceability — periodicity and timeliness - Periodicity: - Prices collected daily to ensure monthly production in accordance with SDDS and GDDS. - PPI available on the 10th to 15th of the month following the reference month; published in Informe Económico in the fourth week of the same month. - Timeliness: - Compilation begins in the second week of the month under study and completed in the second week of the month after the reference month according to preannounced timetable. - Publication by press release and on CBP website adhering to SDDS and GDDS standards. ### Serviceability — consistency - Internal consistency: - PPI estimates made for domains (domestic goods, imported goods) and national total; each domain has its own basket and weights. - Combined national figures result from weighted aggregation of both baskets; results identical regardless of form of integration. - Time consistency: - Current PPI series began in December 1995 and has been published monthly since; no chained series. - Reconciliation with other data: - PPI results reconciled with CPI for products appearing in both indices. ### Revision policy and practice - Revisions: - PPI figures are not subject to revision after publication. - Study for selection of basket and calculation of PPI conducted at intervals exceeding 10 years. - "Metodología del Cambio de Año Base" compares 1972 and 1995 baskets and describes conceptual/methodological differences. - No program for regular updating of the PPI. - Error correction: - If an error is identified, explanation provided and corrected data clearly identified. - Public studies: - No periodic reviews to assess effects of weighting-structure changes; no special studies on sources of price collection errors. ### Accessibility - Presentation and documentation: - Methodology for both indices (PPI and CPI) disseminated in CBP publication "Índices de Precios—Metodología". - Monthly PPI published in tabular form consistent with international presentations; includes disaggregated series by domains, groupings, and sections, with both index and changes included in Informe Económico Mensual and on CBP website. - Dissemination media and formats: - Informe Económico Mensual available in PDF on CBP website. - Recent data and time series since 1996 available in Excel format on CBP website. - Release schedule and access: - No preannounced schedule for PPI publication dates; PPI disseminated in the fourth week after the reference month. - Statistics disseminated simultaneously to all users; no government officials outside CBP have prior access. - No data dissemination timetable released in advance. - User services: - DMD provides queries, photocopies, and printouts on request to public/private institutions and individuals. - All data available at CBP library. - Special requests handled by fax, electronic mail, or in writing. *Source: _cr06243 - 2.3 Classification/sectorization* ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility ### Documentation on concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques - The Methodology of the PPI (base December 1995) was published in September 1997 in the document entitled Índices de Precios: Metodologías, Volumen Uno, Mercado Interno [price indices: methodologies, Volume I, domestic market]. - This document is available to the public at the DCNMI and in the CBP library. - Coverage of the methodological document: conceptual framework; background on the indicator; information sources; the activities and products investigation; classification; the IT system; and initial results (1996–1997 series). - At the DMD, users may consult reference documents used in formulating the indicator, such as: - ILO Consumer Price Index Manual - System of National Accounts 1968 - System of National Accounts 1993 - Various classification systems (ISIC, CPC) ### Levels of detail adapted to intended audience - The CBP website includes a section on economic research and publications, including: - Marco Central del Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales del Paraguay (SCNPY) [central framework for the Paraguayan System of National Accounts] - A practical case study on the preparation of supply and use tables - An introduction to the new Paraguayan national accounts (base 1994) - The methodological document on the PPI may be consulted at the CBP library. ### Accessibility of metadata and related materials (findings) - The publication Índices de Precios—Metodología del CBP [price indices—CBP methodology] and related publications are available to users at the CBP library. - Users have a single contact point (electronic, fax, or mail) with the CBP, but not contact points for individuals directly responsible for each statistical program. Requests are routed to DMD specialists as appropriate. - No periodic controls are used to measure the time required to respond to requests. Most requests are sent via electronic mail; public historical data requests (not requiring CBP authorities’ approval) are attended to rapidly. - There is an internal release schedule that is not announced to the public; however, the public is aware of this schedule. ### Key quality and coverage findings related to PPI (from Data Quality Assessment Framework) - PPI basket size and representativeness: - The PPI basket contains 150 items and "is still not fully representative of current national output." - The share of goods production not covered by the index is 11.6 percent. - Missing components and treatment: - Electricity, water, gas, and services prices are missing from the PPI. - Missing prices are not imputed. - Quality adjustments and seasonal products are excluded from the index for the month in question and are reincorporated once they have returned to the market for two consecutive months. - No new products are introduced. - Weights and updates: - Weights have not been updated in the latest 10 years. - PPI series are available monthly since December 1995. - A chained index between old and new series is not available. - Statistical practice gaps: - Sampling and nonsampling errors are not calculated. - Revision studies and analyses are not conducted. - Periodic weight revisions are not undertaken; "The PPI bias increase as the weights become out of date." - There is no regular program for updating the PPI. ### Recommended plans for improvement and target actions (as stated) - Technical assistance will be needed to evaluate the data from the supply/use tables as the source data for the new PPI weights and financing will be needed to carry it out. Training of staff of the National Accounts and Domestic Market Department. - Prepare a short term plan to improve the quality of the PPI, using data from the supply/use tables based on the new national accounts series, with a view to updating the basket of goods and the system of weights. - Formulate in the medium-term a general plan for expanding industrial activity coverage, and updating weights and the reference base, following international standards. - Formulate in the medium-term a general plan for increasing the basket of goods coverage. - Assess PPI data source and sampling techniques. - Improve the efficiency of the PPI collection and processing procedures, including scope, product classification, price collection, treatment of seasonal products, missing items, quality changes, and introduction of new products. - Base PPI updates, in the long term, on a program of regular censuses and surveys. - The BCP will prepare and publish advance release calendars in accordance with the recommendations of the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). - Improve dissemination of contact points by e-mail and on the web page. ### Assistance to users (summary) - Only a general contact point is provided for the BCP; individual subject-field contact points are not publicized. - Users may consult methodological documents at the CBP library and reference materials at the DMD. - Plan: Improvement in the dissemination of contact points by e-mail and on the web page. *Source: _cr06243 - 5.2 Metadata accessibility* ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2.1 Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing are commensurate with statistical programs - GFS are compiled by two staff, one permanent and one contractual, in the AFFD of the MOF. Their GFS compilation work is supervised by the head of the AFFD and is done in addition to their other regular tasks. - Although skills are adequate for current compilation tasks, additional and more qualified personnel will be required to improve GFS compilation and to perform new compilation tasks, especially if the MOF decides to migrate to the GFSM 2001 analytical framework. - MOF staff participation in training: - MOF staff have participated in GFS courses held at the IMF headquarters and also in regional courses based on the GFSM 2001. - Additional training in GFS methodology is provided internally. - Staff retention and compensation: - Non-formal measures are in place to encourage retention of experienced staff. - There are constraints on promotions and merit increases within the civil service system. - The AFFD experiences a complete staff turnover, more or less, every two years. - Salaries of the managers and technicians are on average similar to those received in other public institutions; low salaries are compensated by bonuses awarded for working overtime. - Computing and facilities: - Available computer resources are reasonable; each official has its own computer with Internet access. - Available software such as Excel and Word is adequate for current needs. - The MOF has a unit in charge of information and computing issues for the entire institution that provides anti-virus software and keeps back-up of the GFS and other fiscal data produced in the MOF. - Physical facilities appear adequate for current GFS collection, compilation, and dissemination. - Financing constraints: - Funding may be insufficient for improvement of GFS activities; funding restriction will be more evident with increased future GFS activities such as migration to the GFSM 2001. ### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources are implemented - Legal framework: - Article 90 of Law No.1626 states that the Executive Branch will carry actions and policies in the organization and operational work of the public entities to enhance administrative efficiency and professionalism. - The organizational structure of the public entities will face continuous assessment and analysis to adapt public services to their functions and requirements. - Practical implementation: - The MOF has not calculated the costs or carried out budgeting exercises associated to the GFS compilation. - The MOF assesses staff performance for promotion and salary increases. ### 0.3 Relevance - Monitoring of relevance and utility: - The MOF does not undertake research to help identify new and emerging data requirements. - There are no surveys for obtaining feedback on the relevance and practical utility of fiscal data for analytical purposes. ### 0.4 Other quality management - 0.4.1 Processes are in place to focus on quality - MOF recognizes quality as cornerstone of budgetary, accounting, and statistical processes. - Major efforts in recent years to compile and disseminate a more complete set of fiscal data (GFS, budgetary and accounting data) with increased coverage of institutions and transactions. - Recognition of trade-offs, such as between timeliness and accuracy. - 0.4.2 Processes are in place to monitor the quality of the statistical programs - Mechanisms include review and revision of preliminary data and the use of IMF technical assistance. - Shortcomings: - Shortcomings in reporting of primary data and difficulties in assessing and cross-checking data sources in first stages of collection and compilation (in the IFMS) by internal and external auditing offices affect reliability of GFS. - No mechanisms enforce legal requirements on reporting of detailed and timely financial information from all public entities, especially local governments and some public corporations. - No systematic arrangements are in place to obtain feedback from users of GFS. - 0.4.3 Processes are in place to deal with quality considerations in planning the statistical program - No formal processes to assess the quality of the GFS and no medium term plan to improve data quality. - Efforts being made to ensure internal consistency and to improve quality: - Fiscal data compiled in the MOF have extended institutional coverage to include all decentralized entities operations. - Ongoing familiarization with the GFSM 2001 analytical framework through participation in training activities. ### 1. Assurances of integrity #### 1.1 Professionalism - 1.1.1 Statistics are produced on an impartial basis - Impartial compilation and dissemination of GFS are not supported by specific laws or provisions, but there is no evidence that data are not compiled on an impartial basis. - Professionalism recognized in internal provisions of the MOF and in principles of Law No. 1626. - Choice and tenure of managers are based on an independent process, limiting interference. - Articles 15 and 35 of Law No. 1626 state that staff recruitment and promotion will be through a selection process involving interviews and competitive examinations. - Efforts to promote professionalism include training abroad, technical assistance, analytical work, publication of methodological papers, and organization of lectures and seminars. Research and analysis are encouraged and results are published on the MOF website. - 1.1.2 Choices of sources and statistical techniques and dissemination decisions - No evidence of political interference in choice of data sources and statistical methods. - Data sources are selected according to usefulness and availability. - Changes to analytical framework are made solely for statistical reasons. - 1.1.3 Entitlement to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics - The MOF is empowered to respond to misinterpretation/misuse of fiscal data and prepares and disseminates explanatory notes and provides accounts of recent developments in annual and sub-annual reports. #### 1.2 Transparency - 1.2.1 Terms and conditions availability - Public has unimpeded access to broad legal framework for collection, compilation, and dissemination of fiscal data, but comprehensive terms and conditions under which the MOF collects, compiles, and disseminates GFS are not available to the public. - 1.2.2 Internal governmental access prior to release - No official agency outside of MOF has access to data prior to publication; this practice is not publicly announced. - Procedures for authorizing dissemination of GFS are made public only in a limited manner; the minister of the MOF authorizes release of GFS. - 1.2.3 Products clearly identified - All fiscal data products disseminated through the MOF website clearly identify the producing agencies and data sources. - 1.2.4 Advance notice of major changes - Advance notice is given to the public about major changes in methodology or other relevant changes that materially affect the GFS, such as the implementation of the IFMS. - No explanatory notes are provided when changes are introduced in publications. #### 1.3 Ethical standards - 1.3.1 Guidelines for staff behavior - Ethical standards guiding staff behavior are contained in Law No. 1626 and administrative procedures in the MOF. - Law provisions: - Article 60 prohibits civil servants from using materials and technical, financial, and information resources and state property for non official purposes. - Article 73 stipulates possible disciplinary, administrative, criminal, or other penalties for nonexecution or improper execution of official responsibilities, violation of labor discipline, or violation of restrictions associated to the civil service. - MOF staff are generally aware of ethical provisions that regulate their work. ### 2. Methodological soundness #### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - 2.1.1 Overall structure follows internationally accepted standards - GFS concepts and definitions are generally consistent with recommendations of the GFSM 1986. - Authorities have not yet taken decision to migrate to the GFSM 2001 analytical framework and have not prepared a plan to migrate to this methodology. - The MOF has received technical assistance that prepared bridge tables between the budgetary national classifications and those specified in the GFSM 2001. - Technical assistance visits: a multisector and a GFS technical assistance missions visited Paraguay in 2001 and 2003, respectively. #### 2.2 Scope - 2.2.1 Scope consistency with international standards - The scope of currently disseminated GFS covers operations of the public sector and its subsectors: central administration, general government─as defined by the Paraguayan authorities, and the nonfinancial public sector. - This scope does not include local government operations and is not in line with GFS manuals recommendations. - Local government operations are not reported to the MOF because their budgets are not included in the national budget. - The 2006 Budget Law No. 2869 has included specific provisions to collect data from local governments and to make official the data reporting of two nonfinancial public corporations, the Paraguayan Corporation of Communications (COPACO) and the Sanitary Services Enterprise of Paraguay (ESSAP). - Domestic debt flows and stocks that decentralized entities and public corporations contract with the central administration using external resources are not always recorded because the SA records external financing by payer instead of debtor. - Presentation and tables: - Presentation of GFS compiled by the FPD closely follows the Summary Table of Major Components in the GFSM 1986. - Disseminated tables for the central administration and nonfinancial public sector follow format of tables A (government revenue and grants) and C (economic classification of expenditures and lending minus repayment). - There are no tables for functional classification of expenditures, and financing by type of debt instrument (tables B and E). - Debt data cover external and domestic debt. External debt is presented by debtor and payer; domestic debt is presented by security holder. #### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - 2.3.1 Consistency with international standards - FPD prepares sectorization at three levels: - Central administration: units of legislative, executive, and judicial branches, General Comptroller, Ombudsman office, Public Treasury, National Treasury, and other units of the central administration. - General government: consolidates data of central administration and decentralized entities (except public corporations). - Nonfinancial public sector: consolidates data of general government and nonfinancial public corporations. - Decentralized entities (except public corporations) include: - 17 departmental governments, 13 autonomous entities, and five social security schemes (Social Security Institute (IPS) and four employer social insurance schemes). - Deviations from GFS manual recommendations: - Statistics on consolidated central government and general government are not prepared. - Statistics on central administration include data of the Postal Service Directorate, a nonfinancial public corporation. - Statistics on nonfinancial public sector include data of financial public corporations (four employer social insurance schemes). - The GFS manuals recommend compilation of statistics on: - central administration excluding all public corporations; - consolidated central government including central administration, social security schemes, and decentralized entities (except public corporations); - consolidated general government including consolidated central government and local governments; - consolidated nonfinancial public sector including consolidated general government and consolidated nonfinancial public corporations. - Expenditure classification: - Expenditure data are classified as current expenditure, capital expenditure, and net lending. - Current expenditure is classified by personal services, goods and services, contractual interests, current transfers, and other expenditures capital expenditure. - Capital expenditure divided into physical investment, financial investment, and transfers. - Current transfers disaggregated by recipient: nonfinancial public sector, financial public sector, private sector, and to abroad institutions. - Financing classification: - External and domestic financing of central administration and nonfinancial enterprises are classified by disbursements and amortizations; domestic financing also by floating debt and change in deposits. - External disbursement and amortization are classified by creditors; domestic disbursement and amortization classified by incurrence and recovery of liabilities issued by the Treasury. - Floating debt includes: - difference between expense on accrual basis and expense on a cash basis; - data related to the complementary period (payments that belong to the previous fiscal year); - rescheduled debt created for unpaid current and capital expenditures. - Change in deposits shows breakdown for domestic and foreign currency deposits in the CBP and in the commercial banks. - Below-the-line category: recording period difference covers unexplained discrepancies between the data above-the-line and below-the-line. - External and domestic debt presentation: - External debt classified by debtor and payer with breakdowns for nonfinancial public sector and financial public sector; NFPS includes breakdown for central government, local governments, and nonfinancial public corporations. - MOF prepares table for external debt by creditors: international organizations and foreign governments. - GDPA disseminates monthly external and domestic debt data in the Financial Report for the central administration compiled by the GDPCD and classified by payer. - Domestic debt divided into direct debt of the National Treasury by loan and debt guaranteed of the National Treasury by loan. - CBP classifies financing as external or domestic; external and domestic financings refer to disbursements and amortization by debtor and changes in deposits. - Revenue and expenditure classification issues: - Classification mostly in accordance with GFSM 1986 recommendations. - Exceptions: - Tax refunds are included as expenditure (whereas GFSM recommends recording tax refunds as negative revenue). - Domestic and external debt only partially follow international classification recommendations: no compilation for external debt by financial instrument, or for domestic debt by debt holder. #### 2.4 Basis for recording - 2.4.1 Market prices - All cash transactions reflect actual prices. - Debt is recorded at face value or nominal value in accordance with GFSM 1986, rather than market value. - 2.4.2 Recording basis - Article 22 of Law No.1535 establishes budgetary execution stages: - Revenue side: assessment stage (financial sources identified and quantified) and collection stage (cash basis). - Expenditure side: earmarking stage (appropriation determined), obligation stage (“obligado” which is an accrual basis proxy) when commitment for payments is assumed, and payment stage (cash basis). - The FPD compiles GFS on a mixed basis: - revenue on a cash basis, - expenditure on an accrual basis, - financing on a due date basis. - Outstanding debt balances: - Recorded in the ISFMED using original currency and converted to U.S. dollars using exchange rate at end of reference period. - Disbursements recorded at date of creditor’s disbursement; payments of debt services recorded at date of reception by the CBP of the debit note. - Recorded in the AS in guaranís using exchange rate at end of reference period; debt flows recorded in guaranís using exchange rate at date when transaction took place. - 2.4.3 Grossing/netting procedures - Most transactions are shown on a gross basis in line with GFSM 1986, including tax revenue and financing. - Tax refunds should be deducted from tax revenue. *Source: _cr06243 - 0.2 Resources* ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### _cr06243 - 3. Accuracy and reliability ### Source data: origins, coverage, and formats - Main data sources for GFS: IFMS (controlled by the GDPA) and its subsystems, the Accounting System (AS) and the ISFMED.9 - AS provides budgetary execution reports and financial information (balance) reports; online reporting covers all central administration units and most decentralized entities. - Some decentralized entities and public corporations provide data to the MOF in diskettes or hard copies. - Four categories of units for AS financial information processing: - (i) units using online unique and standardized format prepared by the GDPA; - (ii) units reporting in diskettes using the same format as online units (recording to the AS is manual); - (iii) units reporting in diskettes using a different format but bridged to the AS chart of accounts; - (iv) units with different chart of accounts where bridge tables were not created by the AS (usually report in hard copy). ESSAP and COPACO belong to (iv) and their data are received by GDPA but not recorded in the AS. - Data of local governments, ESSAP, and COPACO are excluded from the AS; these data are expected to be collected during the 2006 budget execution. - ISFMED provides detailed domestic and external debt information; GDPCP compiles and disseminates internal debt and records internal debt in the AS. - FPD supplements AS data with information from the CBP and explanatory notes from the GDPA. - The chart of accounts was reviewed in 2004 to include categories of current and capital expenditures. - Compilation of GFS for a calendar year includes data belonging to the complementary period. ### Source data: scope, classification, and timeliness - Institutional sectorization: - Two versions at MOF: one by the FPD for GFS compilation and another in the budget institutional classification (central administration, decentralized entities, local governments; decentralized entities broken into 8 sublevels including central bank, departmental governments, autonomous entities, social security schemes, public corporations, mixed public corporations, public financial entities, public universities). - IFMS institutional classification is adjusted for GFS by the FPD; however, IFMS does not include municipalities, ESSAP, or COPACO. - Classification systems: - IFMS uses its own classifications, the budgetary classification, and the chart of accounts. - Budgetary classification for revenue and expenditure broadly aligned with the GFSM 1986 (main exceptions: classification by instruments for financing data). - AS accounting classification broadly follows international accounting standards. - ISFMED and AS use classifications broadly established in the GFSM 1986 for internal and external debt compilation. - Timeliness: - Article 66 of Law No. 1535 requires public units to report financial data to the MOF with a 15 day lag after the end of the reference period. - In practice, online units are timely due to automated recording; other units (departmental governments and nonfinancial enterprises) report with delays. - FPD has implemented administrative procedures to cope with delays; some improvements observed. ### Assessment of source data and quality controls - Verification procedures exist in the IFMS, including AS and ISFMED data, and GDPA staff review data consistency. - The results of assessments are not monitored or used to guide planning; GDPA has not assessed accuracy of reported data and is not aware of the degree of underreporting or misreporting. - Lack of quality control in primary data sources is an important potential source of discrepancies between deficit/surplus and financing information. - Preliminary data are published when reasonably complete and later replaced with final data; the status of data used for each period is noted in disseminated GFS. - For some data items (financing and debt stocks), cross-validation with ISFMED is incomplete and cross-checking with CBP on changes in deposits is not performed. ### Statistical techniques, adjustments, and validation - GFS data are primarily based on reported information; procedures for estimating omissions are not used. - Generally accepted statistical methods are used to adjust source data to GFS compilation, including: - exclusion of expenses on goods and services used for public capital formation from current expenses; - reclassification of some revenue and expenditure categories to lending minus repayment; - reclassification of financing budget categories as below-the-line categories. - FPD complements AS information with CBP data and direct reports from ESSAP and COPACO. - Intermediate results validation: - Budgetary data are validated against accounting data. - Banking statements are reconciled daily against MOF-prepared data. - Financing and debt stock data compiled from AS are not fully validated against ISFMED. - Statistical discrepancies: - Discrepancies between GFS and intermediate budgetary/accounting data are investigated. - Discrepancies present between financing and debt stock data and ISFMED are not assessed or investigated. - Statistical discrepancies between deficit/surplus and financing, and between financing and changes in gross debt, are partially investigated; additional efforts to reconcile datasets are recommended. ### Revision studies and practices - Revisions are mainly routine replacements of preliminary data with final data; findings of revision studies are taken into account to improve compilation but are not documented. - Revised data are usually published in the next publication; revisions do not follow a formal schedule but there is an established practice familiar to users. - Preliminary and final data are clearly identified and disseminated with the same detail and through the same media. - Formal revision studies and analyses are not undertaken and assessments performed are not made public. ### Serviceability: periodicity, timeliness, and consistency - Paraguay participates in the GDDS; GDDS recommends annual dissemination for central government operations, general government operations, and central government debt and quarterly breakdowns for central government budgetary aggregates. - In Paraguay: - Central administration operations and breakdowns, and external debt data are disseminated on annual and monthly bases. - Decentralized entities, nonfinancial public sector, and general government are disseminated only on an annual basis. - Data for central government operations and general government operations (except debt) are not consolidated. - Only periodicity for central administration operations and central government debt meets GDDS recommendations. - Timeliness: - Monthly data on central administration operations and breakdowns and central government external debt are published two months after the end of the reference month. - Annual data on central administration, decentralized entities and public debt are published four months after the end of the reference year. - Annual and monthly central administration operations data are available on the MOF website. - Consistency: - Overall deficit/surplus and financing data are not consistent due to: - (i) different basis of recording revenue (cash/collection basis) and expenditure (accrual/commitment basis); - (ii) lack of quality control in primary data sources; - (iii) complementary period used to complete payments of committed expenditure; - (iv) rescheduling of expenditure programmed for the previous fiscal year into the current fiscal year; - (v) financing reflecting actual cash disbursements and payments. - GFS are consistent with expected trends and reflect discretionary changes, external shocks, and economic developments; historical data available since 1980 for central administration and 1990 for public sector on the MOF website. - Reconcilation issues: - MOF and CBP national accounts are not reconciled; CBP uses fiscal data on a cash basis though MOF compiles cash and accrual data. - National accounts classify pension schemes as financial institutions, but GFS and monetary accounts include them in the nonfinancial public sector. - Monetary accounts and GFS are not regularly reconciled; changes in nonfinancial public sector deposits are not cross-checked with depositary institutions. - Domestic debt produced by MOF is not reconciled with CBP. - No formal reconciliation between BOP and GFS although both use ISFMED; key variables to reconcile include external transfers and capital and external financing. ### Accessibility, metadata, and user assistance - Dissemination formats: - Main dissemination vehicle: Fiscal Stance Report with charts and tables; financial reports and time series of GFS; occasionally press releases. - Paraguay reports central administration GFS data to the IMF for publication in the GFS Yearbook. - Data presentation: - Disseminated GFS permit identification and comparison of major aggregates of flows and stocks; detailed underlying data and time series are presented. - Data on the MOF website present coverage and detail set out in the GFSM 1986. - Release practices: - GFS are not disseminated according to a pre-announced calendar. - Fiscal data are made available to all users simultaneously. - Nonpublished, nonconfidential, disaggregated data are made available upon request; terms and conditions for access are not publicized. - Metadata: - Detailed metadata are posted only on the IMF’s DSBB and an electronic link to this information is provided on the MOF website. - Bridge tables showing links between source data and GFS are not prepared; differences from internationally accepted standards are not identified in documentation. - GFS metadata on the DSBB provides enough detail for the intended audience and can be accessed through the MOF website at http://www.hacienda.gov.py/sseei/sectorfiscal/SituacionFinanciera.htm. - User assistance: - A contact person with name, email, and telephone number is provided on the MOF website. - The MOF provides technical support to users requesting assistance. - The MOF website provides a list of available publications. ### Findings, shortcomings, and recommended improvements - Findings and shortcomings: - Primary data quality control is weak; GDPA has not assessed accuracy or degree of underreporting/misreporting. - Important data (municipalities, ESSAP, COPACO, local governments) are excluded from AS and awaited inclusion during 2006 budget execution. - Financing and debt series are not fully reconciled across AS, ISFMED, CBP, and BOP datasets. - No formal revision studies documented or made public; limited use of assessment results to guide planning. - Lack of bridge tables linking source data to GFS; differences from international standards not annotated in documentation. - Short-term plans for improvement (as indicated in assessment table excerpt): - Establish working group with staff of MOF and BCP to reconcile GFS data classified above-the-line with those below-the-line. - Establish a working group in the MOF, including staff of the FPD, accounting, and public credit and debt units to improve data sharing and coordination. *Source: _cr06243 - 3. Accuracy and reliability.* ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources ### Government Finance Statistics (GFS) — Resources (assessment: LO) - Additional and more qualified personnel, computing, and financing resources is required to improve the GFS compilation and to perform new compilation tasks, especially if the MOF decides to migrate to the GFSM 2001 analytical framework. - The MOF has not calculated costs or carried out budgeting exercises associated to the GFS compilation. Short-term plans and measures: - Two economists, one from the MOF and other from the CBP, will participate in the IMF 2006 GFS course based on the GFSM 2001 methodology. - The MOF will review and revise the policy promotion and the merit increases and implement measures to encourage the retention of experienced staff. ### GFS related quality-management actions (linked to resources) - Establish mechanisms to obtain feedback from GFS users regarding relevance and practical utility of fiscal data. (short-term) - Establish mechanisms, legal and technical, to audit data reporting and to improve cross-checking in the compilation of GFS. (short-term) - Create working groups (those recommended in 0.1 and 3.4) to promote internal consistency of GFS and their consistency with other datasets. (short-term) ### Monetary Statistics — Resources (section 0.2) 0.2.1 Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing are commensurate with statistical programs - At end-2005, the Monetary and Financial Studies Department (MFSD), within the MES, had 15 staff in its three divisions and the front office. - The MSD had three persons engaged full-time in the compilation of monetary statistics and another three responsible for analysis and monetary programming. - All six staff of the MSD have a university degree, and three of them have pursued postgraduate studies. - All have a long experience in the subject, having worked continuously at the MSD from ten to fifteen years. - Four staff have also participated in the IMF’s Monetary and Financial Statistical Course. - IMF courses are almost the sole source of external training on monetary statistics available to staff of the MSD. - Salary levels at the CBP are approximately one half of the salary for similar positions in the banking sector. - Turnover is, nevertheless, low at the MSD, in part due to job specialization, job security, and incentives such as participation in international courses. - The CBP is experiencing an important loss of personnel, triggered by low salaries and an early retirement program. - Individual performance was formerly assessed twice a year, normally by the department director; lately, the assessment cycle was reduced to once a year. - In 2005, the assessments were restricted only to staff considered for special promotion. - Within the promotion criteria for professional staff, training and publication of research articles had a weight of almost half of the evaluation. - Computer resources are adequate for the compilation of monetary statistics: each staff has a personal computer connected to the bank’s network, with office software, econometric packages, and broadband internet access. 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources are implemented - The statistical process at the MSD is basically a repetition of what has been done in previous years, lacking long-term planning. - Last-minute “urgent” requests from the senior management force the postponement of already planned work. - Some longer term planning took place as a result of the two IMF’s monetary and financial statistics missions in 2000, to implement their recommendations. - Transmission of data from the BS and the AD to the MSD needs to be improved; currently data are transmitted in hardcopy and the MSD must enter them manually in an Excel format. - Some incompatibilities in the systems used by different departments have hampered electronic transmission of data. - The CBP has launched a project to interconnect the different areas of the CBP involved in the collection and compilation of monetary data, allowing electronic transmission of data between among and between the CBP and outside sources. - Expected products of this project include: - an operative database containing the daily trial balance of the CBP and the balance sheets of commercial banks, finance companies, and credit unions; - software that allows transfer of the information to the database from different storage systems; - software that interconnects the database with the BS, the Ministry of Finance, and other operative areas of the CBP; - software that allows on-line access to staff of the MES to this database. - Professional staff of the MSD is involved in routine technical work. - The hiring of a research assistant at the MFSD would increase the productivity of the professional staff of the division, freeing them to perform more analytical work. *Source: _cr06243 - 0.2 Resources* ### 0.4 Other quality management ### 0.4 Other quality management ### Processes to focus on quality - Staff of the MES, and the MSD in particular, are fully conscious of the importance of quality in building trust among monetary statistics users, and are sensitive to different dimensions of data quality. - Monetary statistics are normally of a definite nature and based on balance sheet data; the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy generally does not arise. - Data are published on a final basis, and very few revisions have occurred in the past. ### Processes to monitor quality of the statistical program - The CBP does not have an established process of systematically monitoring the quality of the statistical program. - For external advice on monetary statistics, the CBP relies almost exclusively on technical assistance provided by the IMF. ### Processes to deal with quality in planning the statistical program - The CBP has not implemented formal processes to deal with quality considerations in planning the statistical program. - Because monetary statistics are based on accounting records, accuracy can only marginally be affected by the timeliness of dissemination. ### Assurances of integrity — Professionalism - Monetary data are compiled following only technical criteria despite lack of clear dispositions ensuring full operational autonomy to the CBP. - Public employees in Paraguay become permanent staff after two years working continuously in the institution (art. 47, Law 1626/00), which protects staff against undue pressures or interference. - Source data for monetary statistics: balance sheets of the 13 commercial banks, the 14 finance companies, and the CBP; other financial statistics (e.g., interest rates) use responses from all institutions of the system. - The MSD follows the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM) for classification of financial instruments and sectorization. - Dissemination follows an established internal procedure with internally set deadlines (not publicly announced) that are consistently met; periodicity and timing are not hampered by other government agencies. - The CBP provides comments through the Manager of Economic Studies in cases of misinterpretation; last known cases occurred more than two years ago and were addressed. ### Assurances of integrity — Transparency - Paraguay participates in the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS); metadata on monetary statistics are accessible on the IMF’s DSBB but have not been updated since November 2004. - The CBP website links to the IMF’s DSBB. Law 489/95, posted on the CBP website, contains legal terms for collecting monetary information, though relevant provisions are scattered. - The CBP’s monthly Informe Económico (on the Bank’s website) contains explanatory notes on terms and conditions for compiling monetary statistics. - The CBP holds seminars twice a year with the press to explain methodology and concepts used in compiling monetary statistics. - Internal governmental access prior to release: Ten days before the first draft of Informe Económico is due, the MES presents an advance to the Presidency and the Board with preliminary data. The first draft (containing monetary tables) is finalized once banking and final fiscal data are available; draft is sent to the Board and Presidency; the President reviews and approves posting of the final version on the Internet. - Informe Económico is identified as a product of the MES on its first page; all tables contain the source. The CBP does not require attribution when its statistics or comments are reproduced elsewhere. - Advance notice of major methodological changes is not given to the public; past revisions following IMF recommendations have included a note explaining breaks in series. - MSD is expanding coverage of the other depository corporations (ODC) survey to include largest credit unions and production cooperatives; this expansion is identified as an opportunity to inform the public in advance about methodological change. ### Assurances of integrity — Ethical standards - Law 1626/00, Of the Public Function, and the CBP Personnel Statute (1989) provide rights, obligations, and incompatibilities for staff; statutes prohibit outside work except as university professor, limit personal debt, and restrict disclosure of official documents without authorization. - The CBP’s Information Security Regulations (Board’s Resolution Nº 5 from July 1997) establish rules of conduct to minimize risk of human error, theft, fraud, or misuse of information. - These laws and decrees are made known to staff. ### Methodological soundness — Concepts and definitions - MSD’s methodological framework for the central bank survey and the ODC survey is consistent with the MFSM; some discrepancies were resolved following 2000 IMF missions. - A depository corporations survey (DCS) consolidates the central bank survey with the ODC survey. - Main aggregates identified: monetary base (currency issued plus bank reserves at the CBP), M1 (currency outside banks plus current account deposits of the private sector), M2 (M1 plus savings deposits, term deposits, and savings deposit certificates of the private sector), M3 (M2 plus foreign currency deposits of the private sector), CBP’s net international assets, CBP’s net credit to the public sector, CBP’s net credit to the banking sector, and banking sector’s credit to the private sector. ### Methodological soundness — Scope - At end-January 2006, Paraguay’s depository corporations sector comprised the CBP, 13 commercial banks, 14 finance companies, and around 500 credit unions (of which approximately 200 had liabilities in the form of deposits). - All commercial banks and finance companies submit balance sheets to the BS on a regular monthly basis covering headquarters and domestic branches. BS transmits a hardcopy of aggregated balance sheets to the MSD for the ODC survey; central bank survey is prepared from the CBP’s end-of-month trial balance transmitted as a hardcopy by the AD to the MSD. - Credit unions account for around 25 percent of deposits and loans of the banking sector; they are supervised by INCOOP and do not report to the BS, so their data are missing from the ODC survey—identified as a significant shortcoming. - MSD and INCOOP are incorporating cooperatives into the ODC survey initially by collecting data from the 20 largest credit unions and the 20 largest production cooperatives, three times a year in a format compatible with commercial banks; these would cover around 90 percent of assets and liabilities of deposit-taking cooperatives. A comprehensive ODC survey requires monthly data from all deposit-taking institutions. ### Methodological soundness — Classification and sectorization - Sectorization improved after the 1995 introduction of a common chart of accounts for commercial banks and finance companies; the chart follows international accounting standards and contains enough detail for MFSM-consistent classification and sectorization. - Financial instruments are classified by type, maturity, and currency denomination; account holders are separated into residents and nonresidents in line with BPM5. - Exception: lack of distinction among resident nonfinancial corporations, households, and nonprofit institutions serving households (NPISHs); the chart of accounts provides only an “Other resident sectors” category combining these subsectors—this does not affect net domestic credit but will be a problem when producing financial accounts. - Shortcoming: lack of sectorization of accrued interest by ODCs—ODCs report accrued interest but not together with underlying instrument, forcing MSD to impute accrued interest across instruments and sectors. - CBP treats two binational entities (Itaipú and Yacyretá) as extraterritorial enterprises (nonresidents) consistent with balance of payments approach, but the national component should be classified as residents (public nonfinancial corporations). ### Methodological soundness — Basis for recording - Foreign-currency-denominated assets and liabilities: converted first into U.S. dollars, then into local currency using an “accounting” exchange rate (average of the buying exchange rates at the closing of the previous day). - CBP has no gold holdings. SDR holdings and other IMF SDR accounts are revalued by the AD once a year in April using IMF-provided exchange-rate information; monthly central bank survey adjusts SDR balances using end-of-month market exchange rate provided by STA. - Securities and financial instruments are valued at market prices or fair values by the CBP and ODCs, except some government securities and U.S. Treasury bonds held by the CBP (received under Laws 1093/97, 1186/97, and 1606/00) are valued at amortized cost (effective interest method) consistent with IAS 39. - Shares of BLADEX held by the CBP are valued at the reference price informed by BLADEX. - Recording is on an accrual basis. Accrued interest is reported with its underlying instrument in the CBP’s trial balance but not disaggregated by instrument or sector in commercial banks’ and finance companies’ balance sheets. - Assets and liabilities are presented on a gross basis with no netting; accounts in overdraft recorded as loans; loan provisions reported as a negative asset subtracting from total loans. MSD reclassifies provisions to the liability side as part of capital accounts (noted as incorrect—provisions should be classified as Other accounts payable). - In the “banking survey,” MSD consolidates commercial banks’ accounts in other items net; MSD produces a “nonmonetary depository corporations” survey consolidating finance companies; MSD consolidates both into an ODC survey, netting accounts of commercial banks and finance companies. ### Accuracy and reliability — Source data - Commercial banks and finance companies transmit electronic balance sheets to the BS on a weekly and monthly basis, 10 calendar days after the reference month. - A 12-digit code identifies each account in the chart of accounts, indicating grouping, chapters, liquidity, risk, residency, and subaccounts; accompanying manual contains detailed instructions. CBP conducted seminars and issued circulars (SG Nº 69/2001 and SG Nº 70/2001) defining resident/nonresident units and listing the nonfinancial public sector. - After electronic submission, the BS performs more than 100 automatic consistency checks (incorrect codes, missing information, differences between assets and liabilities, incorrect additions, etc.); if submissions fail checks they are returned to reporting institutions. Complete and correct data must be received by the 10th calendar day after the reference month. - The CBP’s financial statements are audited by an international accounting firm (rotating every year but can be retained up to two years), internal auditors, and the General Comptroller of the Republic. The 2004 annual balance sheet was approved by external auditors with a qualified opinion referring to a pending dispute for CBP’s claims on the Finance Ministry. - The DC survey is based on actual accounting records (except missing credit unions); no sampling or estimations are employed by the MSD. The balance sheet structure permits adequate sectorization and identification of resident and nonresident accounts (except the “other resident sectors” distinction noted). - Timeliness: AD prepares the CBP’s trial balance daily and transmits a hard copy of the end-of-month trial balance to the MSD. BS receives all balance sheets by the 10th of the following month and five days later transmits a hard copy of the aggregated balance sheets to the MSD. The lack of electronic transmission adds an additional day for data inputting, still allowing the MSD to finish the compilation process 20 days after the end of the reference month. *Source: _cr06243 - 0.4 Other quality management* ### 3.2 Assessment of source data ### 3.2 Assessment of source data ### Assessment practices and controls - Source data (censuses, sample surveys, administrative records) are routinely assessed for coverage, sample error, response error, and nonsampling error; results of assessments are monitored and made available to guide statistical processes. - The Monetary Statistics Department (MSD) performs visual checks on aggregated balance sheets to detect significant month-to-month changes or confirm capture of new instruments/institutions. - When MSD detects inconsistencies in aggregated data, it investigates with the Banking Supervision (BS) and contacts the reporting institution for clarification. - Aggregated balance sheets of Other Depository Corporations (ODCs) and the Central Bank of Paraguay (CBP) are input manually by the MSD; manual entry introduces potential errors, which MSD controls through careful processing. - Data reported by ODCs are complete; the MSD does not estimate missing information. ### Statistical techniques and adjustments - Automatic checks by BS focus on conversion of foreign-currency-denominated assets and liabilities into local currency. - The MSD does not seasonally adjust the monetary series. - MSD follows informal, visual-only procedures to check accuracy of ODC-reported data; no formal documentation/file is kept listing common detected mistakes. - MSD conducted seminars after the introduction of the new chart of accounts in 1995, and also in 2001 to explain MFSM concepts, but it does not organize regular courses for banks and finance companies on reporting to the CBP. ### Validation of intermediate data and outputs - International reserves and foreign assets and liabilities of the CBP are systematically checked against balance of payments data. - MSD does not check: - consistency of credit to government in the CBP’s balance sheet with Ministry of Finance data; - consistency of the CBP’s debt registry with banks’ reported government securities holdings; - interbank positions, because MSD does not receive individual banks’ data. - When MSD observes important changes in aggregated ODC data, it contacts the institution and, if needed, asks BS to instruct the institution to introduce revisions. ### Revisions and revision studies - The main source of monetary data revision was IMF technical assistance through two monetary and financial statistics missions in 2000. - MSD revised data from January 1995 onwards; the revision in the time series was indicated in explanatory notes accompanying Informe Económico tables. - Findings of revision studies are used internally to improve the compilation process. - Studies and analyses of revisions are not made public. ### Serviceability: periodicity, timeliness, consistency, and revision policy - Periodicity: broad money survey and other monetary data (monetary base, interest rates) are published monthly in Informe Económico and Indicadores Financieros, as recommended by the GDDS. - Timeliness: monetary statistics usually disseminated with less than one month lag; monetary tables included in Informe Económico are available by the 20th of the month after the reference month. - Exception: December 2005 issue of Informe Económico was posted in a preliminary version with analytical section but without statistical tables. - Publication is delayed by approximately five days because tables cannot be disseminated until the analytical section is prepared. - Consistency within dataset: although the MSD does not perform consistency checks, the ROSC mission verified internal consistency, including CBP position vis-à-vis individual banks and aggregated interbank position. - The mission detected inconsistencies between commercial banks’ and finance companies’ aggregated intersectoral positions. - Consistency over time: time series in Informe Económico are consistent; revisions following IMF missions’ recommendations were highlighted in explanatory notes. - Consistency with other sources: international reserves and foreign assets/liabilities of CBP and commercial banks are consistent with balance of payments data. - Monetary data on credit to government are not consistent with Ministry of Finance information, in part due to CBP claims on government for the Treasury Bonds Law 1093/97 not recorded by the Ministry of Finance. - Discrepancies also exist in government deposits due to Ministry of Finance’s misclassification of pension funds as part of central government. - Revision policy and practice: - Monetary data in Informe Económico are generally final and only exceptionally revised. - The annual balance sheet of the CBP is published on a preliminary basis and subject to revisions; the public is informed that these data are preliminary. - International reserves of the CBP are another example of preliminary data subject to revision. - Preliminary and revised data are identified through corresponding notes. - Studies and analyses of revisions are not made public. ### Accessibility, dissemination, metadata, and user assistance - Dissemination media and format: - Informe Económico and Indicadores Financieros are posted on the CBP website; no hardcopies are published. - MSD provides copies on CDs upon request. - Data presentation: - Tables present information clearly with adequate level of detail; explanatory notes and macroeconomic trend analysis accompany monetary data. - Time series in Excel format are available on the CBP website at users’ request; these tables are posted only twice a year and the latest available data correspond to October 2004. - Recommendation: CBP should update these time series on a monthly basis to improve data accessibility. - Release schedule: - MSD has an internal production cycle with deadlines aiming to post Informe Económico by the 25th of the month after the reference month; this internal deadline is not publicly preannounced. - Informe Económico and Informe de Inflación are presented monthly in a press conference; a couple of hours after the press conference the bulletins and presentation are posted on the CBP website. - Data are not made available to external agencies prior to public release. - Metadata accessibility: - Metadata on monetary statistics are available through the IMF’s DSBB, but DSBB metadata have not been updated since November 2004. - CBP website provides a link to the IMF’s DSBB; Informe Económico contains explanatory notes and Law 489-95 is posted on the CBP’s website. - Assistance to users: - Informe Económico does not contain names and telephones of persons to contact for monetary statistics but identifies the product as from the MES; telephone numbers are available on the CBP homepage. - CBP offers a free subscription service; subscribers receive monthly email notification with a link to download the pdf version of Informe Económico. - Upon request, MSD provides nonpublished but nonconfidential information; there is no public catalog of publications or prices because CBP does not print hardcopies. ### Summary assessments and identified weaknesses (from Table 5) - Identified needs and plans: - Data transmitted in hardcopy from BS and AD to MSD; need for a research assistant at MFSD. - Project planned to interconnect CBP areas to allow electronic transmission of data. - No formal consultation process with users of monetary statistics. - Only informal quality management processes in place. - Deposit-taking cooperatives not included in ODC survey; plan to collect data from the 20 largest credit unions and the 20 largest production cooperatives in coordination with INCOOP. - No breakdown between other nonfinancial corporations, households, and NPISHs; binational entities Itaipú and Yacyretá classified as nonresident units. - No sectorization of accrued interest in the ODC survey. - No validation procedures for government debt to the central bank and ODCs; no cross-checking of interbank positions. - No systematic revision studies; improvements introduced at the request of users. - Internal production cycle exists with deadlines but no preannounced release calendar; CBP plans to prepare a preannounced release calendar. - Only a reference to MSD as producer of monetary data in publications; no contact person listed. ### Balance of payments statistics: prerequisites and institutional arrangements - Legal framework and responsibilities: - Central Bank of Paraguay Law, 489 of July 3, 1995, assigns primary responsibility and authority to the CBP for compilation, processing, and dissemination of balance of payments statistics. - Article 82: CBP “shall prepare and publish statistics on monetary and financial issues, external payments, domestic prices, output and income, and on credit institutions subject to its supervision.” - Article 72: CBP “shall keep the Executive Branch and the Legislative Branch constantly informed of the behavior of prices, employment, external trade, balance of payments, and other economic indicators.” - Article 118: CBP “shall publish an annual report, approved by its Board of Directors, that shall contain an analysis of the monetary, financial, and economic performance of the past fiscal year.” - Data sharing and coordination: - Sharing of balance of payments data among official institutions is adequate; procedures exist for effective and timely flow of source administrative data. - CBP has full on-line access (although not formally established) to primary foreign trade documentation from the National Directorate of Customs (NDC). - CBP and the Ministry of Finance share the Debt Management and Financial Analysis System (DMFAS) for medium- and long-term external public debt. - CBP uses databases from the Superintendence of Banks (SB) and the Superintendence of Insurance (SI) for external assets/liabilities and yields. - MOF’s Vice ministry of Tax Revenues (VTR), by Resolution 115/03, provides CBP with annual balance sheets, income statements, and related documents reported by nonfinancial private enterprises to support compilation of balance of payments and national accounts statistics. - Regular contacts are maintained with these agencies, but no provision exists for regular meetings to coordinate and evaluate statistics. - Confidentiality and legal mandate: - CBP Law guarantees confidentiality (Articles 6, 7, 8); statistics published in aggregate form with no individual references except certain accounting data published by banks, finance companies, and other credit institutions. - Information Security Regulations (approved July 1997) and Code of Conduct for CBP Staff (approved September 1989; Regulation February 1990) establish confidentiality and staff responsibilities. - Annual letter to reporters references legal framework and confidentiality; quarterly questionnaires do not reference these issues. - Article 80 establishes obligation for public institutions, banks, finance companies, other financial intermediaries, and private sector enterprises to provide data requested by CBP; legal sanctions and fines exist for noncompliance by financial institutions but not for nonfinancial private sector units. - CBP seeks to reduce response burden by pre-filling surveys with previously submitted data and adapting questions to reporters’ terminology and accounting codes. *Source: _cr06243 - 3.2 Assessment of source data* ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2.1 Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing are commensurate with statistical programs - The Balance of Payments Division of the CBP’s International Economic Department is responsible for collecting, processing, and disseminating balance of payments statistics and the international investment position (IIP) data. - Division composition: - Total staff: eight professionals (including the division chief). - Sections: Balance of Payments Section (two staff), Surveys Section (three staff), Exchange Balance Section (two staff). - Staff qualifications and training: - Most professionals have a bachelor degree in economics. - Most staff have participated in training in balance of payments courses organized by the IMF (both at headquarters and at the Brazilian Regional Training Center) and by the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA). - Human resource constraints: - Human resources available for working with surveys are insufficient. - Remuneration: - Salaries and benefits are above those offered by the central government, but in line with other public sector institutions. - International Economics Department other divisions: - External Trade Division (four staff). - Economic Integration and External Debt Division (three staff). - Facilities and IT: - Working space, computer resources, and equipment are adequate to perform required tasks (although computer equipment and software need to be upgraded). - Each staff member has his/her own computer connected to a main server with backup and system protection procedures. - All staff has access to email and Internet. - The CBP’s IT Department provides good support on technical matters. - Financing limitations: - Financial resources allocated to the compilation of balance of payments statistics are not sufficient for supporting developmental work. - Since 2001, travel surveys and specialized studies (e.g., on unrecorded trade) have not been conducted. ### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources are implemented - Staff competence and practices: - Staff responsible for compiling balance of payments statistics have a good understanding of the concepts, procedures, and methods recommended by the BPM5. - Staff demonstrate dedication and initiative. - The CBP encourages staff to keep up-to-date with international data recording and processing practices. - External assistance: - When possible, the CBP has sought outside expert assistance (mainly from CEMLA, European Union, IDB, and IMF) to evaluate statistical methodologies and compilation systems. - Performance evaluation: - Currently, the CBP evaluates staff performance only for promotion purposes. ### 0.3 Relevance - 0.3.1 The relevance and practical utility of existing statistics in meeting users’ needs are monitored: - Data users are not consulted or kept informed on the relevance and practical utility of existing data (e.g., usefulness in terms of detail, periodicity, and timeliness). - The CBP does not have established procedures to consult with users (e.g., user surveys, seminars, advisory committees); informal contacts with data users take place. - CBP officials participate from time to time in regional and international statistics meetings and seminars hosted by international institutions such as CEMLA, European Union, IMF, and the UNDP. ### 0.4 Other quality management - 0.4.1 Processes are in place to focus on quality: - CBP authorities are aware that continued efforts are needed to improve the quality of statistics. - Management recognizes and promotes that quality builds trust and is the cornerstone of statistical work. - CBP conducts special seminars on the importance of quality for CBP staff qualified for promotion. - 0.4.2 Processes are in place to monitor the quality of the statistical program: - Monitoring processes (although no systematic) are conducted to inform managers on quality for ongoing activities (for example, surveys’ response rates, timeliness evaluations, intersectoral consistency). - CBP has recently initiated the preparation of a comprehensive on-line database that would also produce automated report forms on balance of payments and international investment position. - 0.4.3 Processes are in place to deal with quality considerations in planning the statistical program: - Some quality issues are addressed in the work program planning process (for example, trade-offs among timeliness and accuracy/reliability). ### 1. Assurances of integrity #### 1.1 Professionalism - 1.1.1 Statistics are produced on an impartial basis: - Professionalism is promoted via recognition of authors of methodological papers, peer review, and organization of lectures and conferences. - Professionalism is promoted by encouraging formal training and on-the-job training in balance of payments methodology and compilation methods. - The CBP does not have internal rules that ensure an impartial selection of managers, nor prevent external interferences during the compilation process; according to CBP officials no such interferences have occurred. - CBP has encouraged publication of methodological research and economic analysis documents. Publications cited: Documents on the Commercial and Financial Movement of Ciudad del Este; International Transmission of Instability: Exchange Market Pressures in Brazil and their Effects on Paraguay; Managing the Export Sector: the Challenge of Integration; and Paraguayan Workers' Remittances from Argentina and the United States have been published by the CBP during 1998–2000. - 1.1.2 Choices of sources and statistical techniques as well as decisions about dissemination are informed solely by statistical considerations: - Choice of data sources, methodologies, and statistical techniques are made solely on the basis of strict technical criteria consistent with BPM5 recommendations. - Decisions about data dissemination are based solely on statistical considerations. - 1.1.3 The appropriate statistical entity is entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics: - CBP attempts to avoid misinterpretation by holding press conferences and providing comments and clarifications when statistics are erroneously interpreted. - There is a well-established practice to deal with data misinterpretation or misuse. #### 1.2 Transparency - 1.2.1 Terms and conditions under which statistics are collected, processed, and disseminated are available to the public: - The CBP discloses conditions under which it compiles and disseminates statistics. - The CBP Law, available on the Internet, establishes obligation to compile and disseminate balance of payments statistics, confidentiality of individual reporter’s data, and other key features. - 1.2.2 Internal governmental access to statistics prior to their release is publicly identified: - In general, national authorities have no access to statistics before public release. - The CBP, as adviser to the government, may provide prior information to members of the Executive Branch, the Judiciary, and the Legislature, when requested. - This provision is identified in the Fund’s DSBB, which is hyperlinked to the CBP website. - 1.2.3 Products of statistical agencies/units are clearly identified as such: - CBP statistical publications are clearly identified with the name and logo of the institution. - The CBP does not require users to identify it as the source before reproducing these statistics. - 1.2.4 Advance notice is given of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques: - No major changes have been introduced in recent years. - Good documentation is available on methodology, source data, and statistical techniques for balance of payments compilation. #### 1.3 Ethical standards - 1.3.1 Guidelines for staff behavior are in place and are well known to the staff: - The Code of Conduct for CBP Staff and its Regulation, approved by the CBP Board in September 1989 and February 1990, respectively, establish rights and responsibilities of CBP staff, including hiring, selection process, promotions, performance evaluation, and confidentiality (Articles 44-47, 48-52, 58, and 101). - The Information Security Regulations approved by the CBP’s Board of Directors by Resolution No. 5 of July 1997 establish rules of conduct to reduce risk of human error, theft, fraud, or misuse of information and foresee disciplinary sanctions against staff that fail to comply. - Staff are aware of the existence of these regulations. ### 2. Methodological soundness #### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - 2.1.1 The overall structure in terms of concepts and definitions follows internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices: - Concepts and definitions used are largely consistent with the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual (BPM5). - In 1997, the CBP converted the balance of payments statistics since 1985 to the BPM5 formats. - Balance of payments transactions and accounts (current, capital, and financial) are defined according to BPM5. - Directional basis is employed when compiling and recording foreign direct investment components. - Resident institutional units are defined in broad conformity with BPM5; Paraguay considers as residents the government and its embassies abroad, individuals and legal entities whose center of economic interest is in Paraguay, and those who engage in economic activities in the country for more than one year. #### 2.2 Scope - 2.2.1 The scope is broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices: - In principle, all resident-nonresident transactions are covered, including estimates on foreign trade not recorded by Paraguayan customs (energy, smuggling, and shuttle trade), workers remittances, reinvested earnings and profit remittances, nonfinancial private sector deposits abroad, debt arrears, and noncash transactions. - Data on some services (computer, construction, and professional), direct investment and portfolio investment abroad, and real estate (most of which are assumed to be of relatively minor importance) are not estimated. - All resident institutional units engaged in transactions with nonresidents are in principle covered (for example, affiliates of nonresident companies). - Two binational hydroelectric enterprises (Itaipú and Yacyretá) are considered nonresidents in the economy. #### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - 2.3.1 Classification/sectorization systems used are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices: - Balance of payments classification broadly follows BPM5. - Current account includes goods; services (transportation, travel, royalties, and other services); income (labor income and investment income); and current transfers (grants and workers' remittances). - Goods are further disaggregated: general merchandise, goods for processing, repairs on goods, goods procured in ports by carriers, and nonmonetary gold. - Exports and imports of the maquila sector (US$30 million and US$17 million in 2005, respectively) are recorded under general merchandise rather than in goods for processing. - Capital and financial account includes capital transfers; direct investment (equity, reinvested earnings and undistributed profits, and other capital); portfolio investment (equity securities and debt securities); other investment; and reserve assets. - Other investment is classified into trade credits, loans, currency and deposits, and other assets and liabilities; further divided into long-term and short-term—due to lack of information, most private sector liabilities are classified as long-term. - Reserve assets are classified into monetary gold, special drawing rights, reserve position in the Fund, foreign exchange, and other claims. - Sectorization disaggregation: monetary authorities, general government, banks, and other sectors. Nonbank public enterprises’ claims and liabilities are attributed to other sectors; external debt transactions are attributed to the institutional sector of the borrower. - Deviations from these classification systems are kept under review. #### 2.4 Basis for recording - 2.4.1 Market prices are used to value flows and stocks: - For the most part, transactions are valued at market prices; where information is not available, at nominal or book value. - Foreign trade flows are recorded on a f.o.b. basis. - No adjustments are made to correct for possible over- or under-valuation on customs forms. - Public sector external debt data mostly comprise nontradable instruments. No major tradable private sector debt liabilities have been identified. - All transactions are recorded in United States dollars. - Transactions in different currencies are converted using the mid-point exchange rate prevailing in the market on the transaction date; otherwise, the average exchange rate for the period is used. - Due to lack of stock data in original currencies, transactions—calculated as the difference between fiscal year beginning and ending balances—are converted into U.S. dollars at the average exchange rate for the period; therefore, transactions may include exchange rate variations. - Deviations from the above valuation principles are kept under review. - 2.4.2 Recording is done on an accrual basis: - Change of ownership as specified in the BPM5 is the principle governing recording. - Time of recording of foreign trade transactions is the customs clearance date. - Services are recorded when rendered; dividends are recorded when declared payable; reinvested earnings on direct investment are recorded in the period when earned with corresponding financial account entries. - Public sector loan drawings are recorded at the time of actual disbursement and loan repayments entered when due for payment; if debt service payments are not made when due, entries are recorded as if they were made and new short-term liabilities are created (arrears). - Two main departures from accrual basis: (i) interest on public sector debt is recorded on a due-for-payment basis (contractually established payment dates) and (ii) recording of interest on reserve assets may exclude interest due and not yet received. The CBP keeps this under review. - 2.4.3 Grossing/netting procedures are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices: - Most current and capital account transactions are recorded on a gross basis, while financial account transactions are recorded on a net basis, separately for individual asset and liability components. - Due to lack of information, some services (e.g., telecommunication) are recorded on a net basis. *Source: _cr06243 - 0.2 Resources* ### 3.1 Source data ### _cr06243 - 3.1 Source data ### Source data architecture and main providers - Source data used by the CBP are obtained from several data collection programs that are broadly adequate to compile Paraguay’s balance of payments statistics, but customs and surveys on services and private sector financial transactions are insufficient. - Main source categories: - Administrative data from government agencies (some accessed on-line or jointly maintained). - Enterprise surveys. - Direct reporting mainly from nonfinancial enterprises. - Supplementary information from some foreign and international financial institutions. - Key administrative providers and datasets: - NDC provides on-line access to SOFIA (fiscal database on customs tariffs) with detailed goods import/export information at a national level. A formal agreement with the NDC would facilitate access to other relevant data (e.g., freight by carriers’ residency). - MOF’s Directorate of Credit and Public Debt (DCP) and the CBP share UNCTAD’s DMFAS producing flow and stock data on medium- and long-term public sector external debt; disbursements and debt service are recorded transaction-by-transaction. - Superintendence of Banks (SB) provides electronic monthly financial data of resident banks, other financial institutions, and foreign exchange houses for financial services and investment flows/stocks. - Superintendence of Insurance Companies (SI) provides annual insurance services, quarterly direct investment, and annual other investment assets/liabilities of insurance companies. - MOF’s VTR provides balance sheets, income statements, and related documents of nonfinancial private enterprises (used to estimate direct investment, portfolio investment, and other external assets/liabilities) and quarterly information on expenditures of Paraguayan embassies and consulates abroad (government services). - Directorate of Tourism prepares monthly incoming and outgoing traveler counts. ### Surveys, direct reporting, and discontinued collections - CBP conducts a quarterly enterprise survey covering foreign direct investment, equity and debt securities, deposits, loans, and other external assets/liabilities of the nonfinancial private sector: - Questionnaires sent to about 140 enterprises. - Initial average response rate of about 70 percent, increasing to over 90 percent in following quarters. - Since 2000, the CBP has not conducted a survey on travel services. - In 2004 several annual surveys collecting services and current transfers from about 90 institutions were discontinued due to lack of human resources and very low response rates. - Direct reporting from specific enterprises and entities: - Itaipú and Yacyretá provide official reports on energy sold to Paraguay, compensation for energy ceded, purchases from Paraguay, payments to government (royalties), labor income to Paraguayan residents, undistributed profits, and arrears and interest on arrears. - ANDE provides data on (1) exports and imports of energy, (2) loan liabilities to nonresident banks from financing its capital share in binational enterprises (not recorded in DMFAS), and (3) short-term debt liabilities to these enterprises arising from energy imports (not recorded in DMFAS). - PETROPAR provides data on short-term debt liabilities to nonresident suppliers (not recorded in DMFAS). - Other CBP departments provide data mainly on official reserve assets and yields. ### External institutional data supplements - DOTS: Data on merchandise imports and exports with Paraguay’s trading partners based on IMF’s Direction of Trade Statistics. - United States Federal Reserve Board: Data on Paraguay’s deposits held in the United States. - BIS: Data on deposits of the Paraguayan nonfinancial private sector held in major BIS reporting countries other than the United States. ### Conformity with international guidance - International standards, guidelines, and practices are monitored for changes that need to be taken into account in the balance of payments compilation system. - Source data (administrative records, enterprise surveys, and direct reporting) are broadly consistent with BPM5 guidelines; CBP applies procedures to adjust for coverage, classification, valuation, and timing differences. ### Timeliness and coverage issues - Most source data are timely, but surveys and direct reporting could employ more rigorous follow-up to improve timely receipt; coverage of the initial release of quarter data for surveys is limited. - There is no comprehensive and up-to-date business register as a basis for sample surveys; CBP uses frames developed for other administrative purposes. - CBP does not use sample techniques nor extrapolate survey data. ### Routine assessment of source data - Accuracy of public sector debt data, international merchandise trade, and other supplementary sources is routinely assessed. - Survey data are regularly analyzed for temporal consistency and consistency with related sources such as nonfinancial private sector balance sheets. ### Statistical techniques and data adjustments - Compilation procedures minimize processing errors (coding, editing, tabulation). - Procedures for imputation and adjustment for nonresponse are used. - CBP developed procedures, in line with BPM5 guidelines, to estimate: - Unrecorded activities (including energy, shuttle trade, and smuggling). - Travel, transportation, and several other services. - Workers’ remittances and other current transfers. - Some estimation procedures are not updated periodically and may be less informative. ### Goods: estimation methods and magnitudes (2005 figures) - A large portion of Paraguay’s external trade in goods is not recorded by the NDC. Reexported goods (goods that enter Paraguay and subsequently leave mainly for Brazil and to a lesser extent for Argentina without being recorded by the NDC) are estimated at US$950 million in 2005. - Re-export components and estimation approach: - Re-export of recorded imported goods: - About 1,400 tariff items identified in 1998, corresponding to 70 categories (mainly imported consumer goods used in CPI). - Based on the 1991 household survey, the proportion of income spent on these categories was identified. - It was found that 52 percent of the imported value of these 1400 tariff items represented reexports of registered imports. - Given lack of a more recent household survey, CBP assumes this percentage still applies and increases the resulting amount by estimates for freight and insurance, tariffs, value added tax, and sales markup. - Re-export of unrecorded imported goods: - Assume DOTS imports constitute Paraguay's total imports of goods. - Difference between DOTS and NDC figures represents unrecorded imports. - Assume all unrecorded imports are re-exported goods and increase amount by freight and insurance and sales markups. - ANDE energy flows not in NDC: exports estimated at US$7 million and imports at US$148 million in 2005. - Goods procured in ports by carriers and repairs on goods: exports estimated at US$7 million and imports at US$4 million in 2005 (estimated by extrapolating previous periods). ### Services: estimation methods and magnitudes (2005 figures) - Communications services recorded on a net basis, estimated at US$16 million in 2005 (not disaggregated into credit/debit). - Goods transportation (freight): - Exports estimated at US$60 million and imports at US$115 million in 2005 (calculated as a percentage of NDC foreign trade database). - Passenger transportation: - Exports estimated at US$17 million and imports at US$50 million in 2005 (based on Migrations Department and average market price of tickets). - Travel: - Incoming traveler expenditures estimated at US$67 million and outgoing traveler expenditure at US$72 million in 2005 (based on Migrations Department and traveler expenditure surveys conducted in 2000). - Freight insurance: credit estimated at US$19 million in 2005 (calculated as a percentage of NDC foreign trade database). - Computer and information services: exports estimated at US$0.4 million and imports at US$ million in 2005 (calculated by extrapolating previous available information). - Government services: expenditures of nonresidents in Paraguay estimated at US$30 million and Paraguay’s expenditures abroad at US$15 million in 2005 (based on number of foreign embassies and consulates accredited in Paraguay). ### Income, transfers, and reserve assets (2005 and methodological notes) - Income: - Nonfinancial private sector interest estimated using quarterly CBP surveys of the largest resident enterprises. - Quarterly balances deposited abroad by residents (based on BIS and U.S. Federal Reserve Board) are multiplied by the quarterly average LIBOR. - Distributed and undistributed profits estimated for: - Direct investment financial enterprises using SBF information. - Direct investment insurance companies using SI information. - Private nonfinancial enterprises using CBP surveys and enterprises’ balance sheets. - Transfers: - Workers' remittances estimated at about US$130 million in 2005; calculated estimating amounts sent to Paraguay by Paraguayan citizens residing in Argentina and the United States based on a CBP study in 2000 (results incorporated back to 1995). CBP has initiated partial compilation/dissemination via direct reporting of money carriers and private financial intermediaries; transport enterprise data and other sources yet to be included. - Grants and other current transfers from official donors estimated at US$65 million in 2005 (extrapolated from previous periods). - Capital transfers estimated at US$15 million in 2005 (extrapolated from previous periods). - Reserve assets: - Transactions calculated from CBP accounting records as the difference in original currencies between period beginning and ending balances and converted into U.S. dollars at the average exchange rate for the period. ### Validation, reconciliation, and error monitoring - Intermediate results are generally validated against other sources: - Foreign direct investment and other external assets/liabilities are verified with MOF’s VTR balance sheets and income statements. - Workers’ remittances plausibility checked with quarterly bank and moneychanger information to crosscheck cash transfers. - Financial press used to verify high-value direct investment and other transactions where appropriate. - Statistical discrepancies: - A few series are routinely assessed against related series (e.g., freight vs goods trade flows); not systematic across all series. - Staff monitor errors and omissions and assess consistency between current, capital, and financial accounts. - Bilateral data reconciliation with partner countries and international organizations is not regularly conducted (except goods trade within MERCOSUR). - Selected portfolio and other investment flows/stocks may be compared with CPIS, Joint BIS-IMF-OECD-World Bank external debt statistics, and BIS locational international banking statistics. - Reconciliation on direct investment data may be conducted with major partner countries. ### Revisions and documentation - Revisions of balance of payments data are studied and inform statistical processes, but formal revision studies are not conducted. - CBP staff revise data periodically, but revisions are not documented. ### Serviceability: periodicity, timeliness, and consistency - Periodicity: - Quarterly periodicity of balance of payments and IIP data meets highest international standards. - Quarterly balance of payments and IIP data are disseminated since 2002. - Timeliness: - Timeliness meets GDDS recommendations. - Quarterly data are disseminated 6-7 months after the end of the reference period. - Quarterly data are reported to STA on a yearly basis for IMF publication. - Internal consistency: - Balance of payments data are consistent within the dataset; financial transactions consistent with changes in the IIP with a reconciliation table (transactions and other changes) regularly disseminated by the CPB. - Consistent series available since 1995; annual BOP data equal sum of quarterly data. - Historical consistency and errors and omissions (1998-2004 averages): - Net errors and omissions item (in absolute values) averaged 1.2 percent of GDP (compared to 0.3 percent in other countries in MERCOSUR). - Averaged 1.6 percent of total goods exports and imports (compared to 1.4 percent in other countries in MERCOSUR). - On average, net errors and omissions are equivalent to the current account of the balance of payments (compared with 9.2 percent in other countries in MERCOSUR). - Errors and omissions have been relatively unstable and in some years sizeable, reflecting limitations in estimating unrecorded goods trade by customs and lack of coverage for certain services and financial transactions—particularly short-term—with nonresidents. - Cross-framework consistency: - Broad consistency with merchandise trade (including estimates of unrecorded trade), monetary statistics (reserve assets), and national accounts (where national accounts use BOP data and unrecorded trade estimates). - BOP external debt data differ from fiscal sector statistics due to different recording criteria (debtor criterion in external accounts vs executor/payer criteria in fiscal accounts); CPB external debt includes some short- and medium-term public enterprise liabilities not in DMFAS. - CBP lacks regular, well-established procedures for evaluating BOP consistency with statistics for other economic sectors. *Source: _cr06243 - 3.1 Source data* ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice ### Revision policy and schedule - The revision cycle of the balance of payments and IIP statistics is predetermined but not made known to the public. - Data for a new quarter are preliminary and subject to revisions during seven consecutive quarters. - The revision cycle is associated with the availability of the source data; it is part of the normal statistical process for incorporating new data. - Policies and practices governing the revision of data are not disseminated nor documented in the balance of payments publications. - Table 6 assessment comment: "Revision cycle is predetermined but not preannounced to the public. Revision cycle need to be reviewed. Assess whether the current revision cycle may be improved." ### Identification of preliminary and revised data - At the time of data dissemination, users are informed whenever data are preliminary or revised. - New quarter data are always preliminary. ### Revision studies and documentation - Analysis of differences between the revised and preliminary data are not published. - Formal studies of revisions are not conducted. - Table 6 assessment comment: "Revisions inform statistical process but formal studies are not conducted. Data revisions will be documented." --- ### 5 Accessibility ### 5.1 Data accessibility — presentation and dissemination - Paraguay's balance of payments statistics are mainly disseminated in three CBP publications: (a) Annual Report; b) Economic Report (monthly); and (c) Bulletin of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position of Paraguay (published in 2003). These publications are also available on the CBP website (http://www.bcp.gov.py). - The CBP holds regular press conferences for the monthly Economic Report to provide additional explanatory information of a technical nature. - Balance of payments statistics are published in formats fully consistent with the standardized components of the BPM5, but additional summary tables are needed. - Data include the analytical presentation of the balance of payments and a reconciliation table between balance of payments and IIP data (flows and stocks). - The balance of payments statistics are disseminated in a clear manner, but neither charts nor tables are prepared to facilitate analysis. - CBP publications do not include commentaries on current-period balance of payments developments. - Quarterly balance of payments and IIP data are disseminated in the annexes of most CBP publications (pdf. format). - The CBP does not disseminate electronic tables or an electronic database with balance of payments data. Longer time series are not currently available. - No advance release calendars are published although quarterly balance of payments and IIP data follow a regular dissemination path. Data are included in the relevant CBP monthly publication. - The balance of payments data are released simultaneously to the public on the CBP website and through a reduced number of CBP hard copy publications. - The CBP provides available unpublished balance of payments data series to users who so request, with due regard to confidentiality rules. - No specific reference is made in balance of payments publications on the availability of unpublished subaggregates and the terms under which they are made available. However, the CBP may prepare customized reports to meet specific requests. - Table 6 assessment comments related to accessibility: - "Formats are in line with BPM5 but additional summary tables are needed. No preannounced scheduled. The CBP will publish data release schedules according to GDDS recommendations." ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - The CBP disseminates methodological notes on balance of payments compilation in national publications, e.g., in the monthly Economic Report. - A comprehensive sources and methods document "Bulletin of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position of Paraguay" was published by the CBP in 2003. An update is intended to be published during 2006. - Paraguay’s balance of payments methodology is posted on the Fund’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB)—currently hyperlinked to the CBP webpage—and in the Fund’s Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook (BOPSY, Part 3). - The metadata allow users with different needs for detailed data to obtain information on balance of payments sources, compilation methods, and statistical techniques. ### 5.3 Assistance to users - Contact information (telephone, fax, and email addresses) is provided in the balance of payments publications, including quarterly specialized reports on external debt statistics and foreign direct investment. These documents are available on the CBP website. - The CBP staff are available to answer queries from users, as stated in the CBP publications, albeit in an unsystematic way. - No processes are conducted periodically to monitor and review assistance to users. - The CBP website contains a list of publications (monthly, quarterly, and annual) that include balance of payments statistics and related external sector data. - Special documents (work documents and research papers) prepared by CBP staff related to balance of payments statistics are included on the CBP website. - All these publications may be obtained free of charge. --- ### Key findings from the Data Quality Assessment Framework (July 2003) — selected items - Prerequisites of quality - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: NO — "No penalties established for nonfinancial enterprises. Institutional agreements to improve data collection." - 0.2 Resources: NO — "Insufficient staff for surveys and updating statistical techniques. Increasing staffing, particularly for the work involved in conducting surveys on services and investment." - 0.3 Relevance: NO — "Data users are not consulted on practical utility of existing data and rising needs. Users’ survey to be available on the CBP webpage." - 0.4 Other quality management: NO — "More systemic processes to monitor quality are needed. Monthly monitoring to the survey process." - Methodological soundness - 2.2 Scope: NO — "Lack of coverage for some services, direct investment, and other private sector external assets/liabilities. Research on financial flows based on derivatives and direct investment, real estate, and nonfinancial private sector deposits." - 2.3 Classification/sectorization: NO — "Goods for processing are included within merchandise goods rather than in a separate goods category. Identification of goods for processing, and classify data in line with BPM5 guidelines." - 2.4 Basis for recording: NO — "Public sector external debt recorded in a due-for-payment basis." - Accuracy and reliability - 3.1 Source data: NO — "Data from customs and surveys are insufficient. Improvement of the survey system. Conduct quarterly surveys on services. Work in well designed, timely, and reliable surveys on services and investment. Improvement in private current and capital transfers." - 3.3 Statistical techniques: NO — "Some statistical techniques need to be reviewed (e.g., unrecorded trade). Revision of the methodology used to calculate unrecorded exports and imports. Training in sampling techniques and other statistical techniques." - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs: NO — "Data reconciliation with partner countries and international organizations is limited. Compare relevant data with available data in international organizations (BIS, OECD, and IMF)." - 3.5 Revision studies: NO — "Revisions inform statistical process but formal studies are not conducted. Data revisions will be documented." - Serviceability - 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness: O - 4.2 Consistency: NO — "BOP and IIP data are consistent/reconcilable with other datasets but not with the GFS. Periodic review of data consistency with other datasets (national accounts, monetary, and fiscal accounts)." - 4.3 Revision policy and practice: NO — see section above. - Accessibility - 5.1 Data accessibility: LO — see 5.1 findings above. - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: O - 5.3 Assistance to users: LNO --- *Source: _cr06243 - 4.3 Revision policy and practice* ### 0.1 Legal and institutional ### 0.1 Legal and institutional ### Prerequisites of quality - Legal and institutional environment: "The environment is supportive of statistics." - Statistical reporting: "Statistical reporting is ensured through legal mandate and/or measures to encourage response." - Resources: "Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing are commensurate with statistical programs." - Resource efficiency: "Measures to ensure efficient use of resources are implemented." ### Assurances of integrity (Professionalism, Transparency, Ethical standards) - Professionalism - "Statistics are produced on an impartial basis." - "Choices of sources and statistical techniques as well as decisions about dissemination are informed solely by statistical considerations." - "The appropriate statistical entity is entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics." - Transparency - "The terms and conditions under which statistics are collected, processed, and disseminated are available to the public." - "Internal governmental access to statistics prior to their release is publicly identified." - "Products of statistical agencies/units are clearly identified as such." - "Advance notice is given of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques." - Ethical standards - "Guidelines for staff behavior are in place and are well known to the staff." - Overarching principle: "The principle of objectivity in the collection, processing, and dissemination of statistics is firmly adhered to." ### Methodological soundness - Concepts and definitions - "The overall structure in terms of concepts and definitions follows internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices." - Scope and classification - "The scope is broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices." - "Classification/sectorization systems used are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices." - Basis for recording - "Market prices are used to value flows and stocks." - "Recording is done on an accrual basis." - "Grossing/netting procedures are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices." ### Accuracy and reliability - Source data - "Source data are obtained from comprehensive data collection programs that take into account country-specific conditions." - "Source data reasonably approximate the definitions, scope, classifications, valuation, and time of recording required." - "Source data are timely." - Assessment of source data - "Source data—including censuses, sample surveys, and administrative records—are routinely assessed, e.g., for coverage, sample error, response error, and nonsampling error; the results of the assessments are monitored and made available to guide statistical processes." - Statistical techniques and validation - "Data compilation employs sound statistical techniques to deal with data sources." - "Other statistical procedures (e.g., data adjustments and transformations, and statistical analysis) employ sound statistical techniques." - "Intermediate results are validated against other information where applicable." - "Statistical discrepancies in intermediate data are assessed and investigated." - "Statistical discrepancies and other potential indicators or problems in statistical outputs are investigated." - Revisions - "Studies and analyses of revisions are carried out routinely and used internally to inform statistical processes." ### Serviceability (Periodicity, Consistency, Revision policy) - Periodicity and timeliness - "Periodicity follows dissemination standards." - "Timeliness follows dissemination standards." - Consistency - "Statistics are consistent within the dataset." - "Statistics are consistent or reconcilable over a reasonable period of time." - "Statistics are consistent or reconcilable with those obtained through other data sources and/or statistical frameworks." - Revision policy and practice - "Revisions follow a regular and transparent schedule." - "Preliminary and/or revised data are clearly identified." - "Studies and analyses of revisions are made public." ### Accessibility (Presentation, Metadata, User assistance) - Data presentation and dissemination - "Statistics are presented in a way that facilitates proper interpretation and meaningful comparisons (layout and clarity of text, tables, and charts)." - "Dissemination media and format are adequate." - "Statistics are released on a preannounced schedule." - "Statistics are made available to all users at the same time." - "Statistics not routinely disseminated are made available upon request." - Metadata - "Documentation on concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques is available, and differences from internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices are annotated." - "Levels of detail are adapted to the needs of the intended audience." - Assistance to users - "Contact points for each subject field are publicized." - "Prompt and knowledgeable support service is available." - "Catalogs of publications, documents, and other services, including information on any charges, are widely available." ### Users’ survey — methodology and participation - Survey context: "In order to complement the IMF’s assessment of the quality of official statistics produced by Paraguay, with assistance from the authorities, the mission conducted an informal survey of key users of macroeconomic statistics." - Target and response rate - Targeted users: 80 - Responses received: 40 - Response rate: 50% - Main datasets most used by respondents: "consumer price indices, monetary statistics, and national accounts." - Primary use of statistics: "short-term decisions based on current economic developments" with "the vast majority relying on first-hand information from official sources." ### Users’ survey — key quantitative findings (preserve values exactly) - Overall ratings and perceptions - Average rating for overall quality (on five point scale, 1 = poor and 5 = excellent): 3.0 - 80 percent of all respondents felt that Paraguay’s statistics were of comparable quality to those disseminated by neighboring countries. - 38 percent of respondents felt that the statistics were not entirely reliable. - Satisfaction with coverage, periodicity, timeliness, and accessibility - Approximately 75 percent of respondents appeared to be satisfied with the levels of coverage and detail of the statistics. - 78 percent of users seemed to be content with the periodicity of published data. - Satisfaction with timeliness: 68 percent. - Overall accessibility to official information: highly satisfactory. - 72 percent of respondents stated they could access data and related methodological/explanatory information on a regular basis. - 30 percent felt the available information was sufficiently clear or detailed enough to be of any value. - Access channels - 75 percent of respondents relied on official websites to access statistics. - The next most popular means was hard copy publications. - Dissemination practices and calendars - 82 percent of respondents indicated they were unaware of the existence of any official calendar of release dates. - 60 percent of users felt that sufficient information was provided with newly released statistics regarding revisions. - Selected additional user requests and suggestions (summarized categories) - Interest in receiving statistics on tourism and short-term indicators of economic activity. - Implementation of more frequent economic censuses. - Access to more accurate metadata for all sectors. - Publication of more frequent labor statistics. - Need for measuring inflation for the country as a whole. ### Users’ survey — tabulated summary (selected items and averages) - Table 8: Respondent counts by type (Sent / Received / Percent Received Within Each Group) - Public sector (central bank, ministries, agencies, nonfinancial corporations): 14 sent; 10 received; 71% - Financial sector: 26 sent; 14 received; 54% - Private nonfinancial corporations: 17 sent; 8 received; 47% - Embassies and international organizations: 13 sent; 5 received; 38% - Universities: 3 sent; 1 received; 33% - Media: 7 sent; 2 received; 29% - Total: 80 sent; 40 received; 50% - Table 9: General usages of official macroeconomic statistics (in percentage of total responses) - National accounts (NA): 75% - Prices (CPI & PPI): 83% - Government finance statistics (GFS): 38% - Monetary statistics (MS): 78% - Balance of payments (BOP): 45% - Other listed uses (selected): Production indices 33%; Labor market 15%; Merchandise trade 35%; International reserves and foreign currency liquidity 58%; External debt 35%; International investment position 25%; Other 5% - Table 9: Sources used for official statistics - Official press releases and publications on macroeconomic statistics: 85% - Private sector summaries and analyses: 40% - Official policy papers: 43% - Publications from international organizations about the country: 58% - Other sources: 18% - Table 9: Reference to official descriptions of sources and methods - Yes: 53% - No: 47% - Table 9: Purpose of using official statistics (multiple responses) - Analysis of current developments for short-term decision making: 65% - Analysis of trends for longer-term policy formulation: 35% - Econometric model building and forecasting: 25% - Economic research: 50% - Comparison with economic developments in other countries: 35% - General economic background: 45% - Other: 13% - Table 9: Aggregated satisfaction and dissemination indicators (average column) - Coverage satisfaction (average): 73% - Level of detail satisfaction (average): 75% - Satisfaction with frequency of compilation (average): 78% - Satisfaction with timeliness (average): 68% - Awareness of a publicly disseminated release calendar (average Yes): 18% - Experience that official statistics are released on announced dates (average Yes): 41% - Enough information about revisions (average Yes): 60% - Easy access to official statistics (average Yes): 90% *Source: _cr06243 - 0.1 Legal and institutional (PDF chapter/section).* ### 8.2 Can you easily access information pertaining to the official statistics you use (explanatory notes, ### _cr06243 - 8.2 Can you easily access information pertaining to the official statistics you use (explanatory notes, methodological descriptions, reference concerning concepts, classification, statistical practice)? ### Accessibility of methodological information (Section 8.2) - Yes: 77% 75% 61% 78% 64% 100% 72% - No: 23% 25% 39% 22% 36% 0% 28% ### Clarity and detail of methodology (Section 8.3) - Yes: 30% - No: 18% - No Opinion: 53% ### Channels used to access official statistics (Section 8.4) - Official releases: 45% - Hard copy publications: 65% - Data specifically requested: 35% - Official website: 75% - Other: 5% - E-mail requests: 33% ### Overall assessment — methodological soundness and quality (Section 9) - 9.1 In your opinion, is the underlying methodology of official statistics sound and appropriate? - Yes: 77% 85% 63% 86% 70% 100% 78% - No: 23% 15% 37% 14% 30% 0% 22% - 9.2 In general, do you consider the official statistics to be unbiased and accurate? - Yes: 54% 56% 61% 83% 60% 0% 63% - No: 46% 44% 39% 17% 40% 100% 38% - 9.3 How would you compare the quality of official statistics with those of other countries in the region? - Better: 0% 0% 5% 4% 0% 0% 2% - Same: 68% 89% 74% 85% 80% 100% 80% - Worse: 32% 11% 21% 11% 20% 0% 18% - 9.4 How do you assess the overall quality of the official statistics? (1 = poor; 5 = excellent) - 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.5 2.5 3.2 ### Abbreviations used in tables - NA = National Accounts - Prices refers to: CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) - GFS = Government Finance Statistics - MS = Monetary Statistics - BOP = Balance of Payments Statistics ### Users’ comments on Macroeconomic Statistics — Paraguay (Appendix V) - Methodological soundness - The base year for the CPI should be updated. - Include unregistered trade in the balance of payments and national accounts due to informal economy and non-registered trade. - Need for more surveys and censuses, particularly economic censuses. - Financial sector data excludes the informal economy and cooperatives, which make up to 40 percent of the sector; private moneylenders also make up a large portion. - Improve export registries to include real final destination using certificates of origin, not only customs information. - Quantify inflation for the entire country, not only the metropolitan area of Asuncion. - National Accounts should be published on a quarterly basis. - Government lacks consolidated information; statistics omit items such as floating debt data for the nonfinancial public sector. - Accuracy and reliability - Concern that the index of quality of life is not reflected in macroeconomic data. - Official statistics are generally accurate, though outdated base years may create bias. - Statistics describe trends adequately. - Some data (inflation, consumer basket composition) may not adequately reflect reality. - Monetary statistics are limited to deposits, credit, and money in circulation. - Relative to other countries, statistics are considered good but not better. - Serviceability (timeliness and usability) - Publication of statistics on websites is oftentimes delayed. - Need for short-term employment indicators; MOF disseminates but not on a short-term basis; CBP should coordinate with MOF. - CBP should regularly publish an official calendar of release dates. - Need for a release-date calendar and more timely statistics. - Recommend a platform to manage the database with explanatory guides describing data nature, methodology, uses, limitations, and interactive features for users and institutions. - Debt of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance are not reconciled. - Accessibility (availability of methodological detail and dissemination) - It is not easy to access information at the MOF. - Difficult to access methodological descriptions and concept references. - CBP website is very slow and difficult to use. - Only 2 percent of the population has access to the Internet; need systems for accessing and soliciting information, especially for students, and expert personnel for management and dissemination. - Fiscal data are good quality but not very accessible; MOF’s monthly report is no longer published. - In many cases, additional methodological detail is not accessible. - In the majority of cases methodology is insufficiently clear and detailed. - General comments and additional needs - Improve availability of sectoral statistics, including tourism (number of tourists, average expenditure). - Need statistics on microeconomic aggregates. - Need for: (a) short-term employment statistics; (b) GDP compiled from the expenditure side; (c) better use of price information through household budget surveys; (d) different presentation format for GDP to aid business decisions; (e) economic censuses (last one took place between 1960 and 1970). - Government does not seem to value statistics highly. - Employment statistics are necessary. - Data should more accurately reflect reality and not be manipulated to fulfill needs of international organizations. - Paraguay’s statistics have a greater time lag compared to neighboring countries like Argentina and Uruguay. - Approval of the statistics law is important. - Need to homogenize the plan of accounts of public enterprises and improve the budgetary process. - Some statistics are complex with extraneous information, hindering analysis. - Paraguay’s statistics could match neighbors’ if GDP were compiled by the expenditure approach and CPI base year updated. - Corruption inside and outside the country has affected balance of payments data. *Source: _cr06243 - 8.2 Can you easily access information pertaining to the official statistics you use (explanatory notes,* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/_cr06243.pdf_