## _cr06324

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---

### Overview / Background
- Economy recovering from shocks beginning in late 2004: real GDP grew 2.4 percent in Q4 2005, raising calendar-year growth to 1.4 percent (from 0.9 percent in 2004).
- Headline inflation: 8½ percent in May 2006, down from a peak of 19 percent in September 2005.
- Public debt: staff estimate fell from 144 percent (end-FY 2003/04) to about 133 percent of GDP currently; includes about 2½ percent of GDP in pre-financing for FY 2006/07.
- Authorities’ medium-term strategy initiated in 2004 to reduce public debt from about 144 percent of GDP to around 100 percent of GDP by 2009; Executive Board supported intensified surveillance.
- Recent higher-than-expected debt reflects lower-than-expected GDP and higher fiscal deficits due to natural disasters and revenue shortfalls.

### Recent Economic Developments
- Growth and labor:
  - Real GDP: 2.4 percent (year-on-year) in Q4 2005; calendar-year growth 1.4 percent in 2005 (up from 0.9 percent in 2004).
  - Unemployment: fell by 0.4 percentage points to 11.3 percent in 2005.
  - Recovery driven by agriculture and tourist arrivals; manufacturing and mining declined in Q4 2005.
- External sector and reserves:
  - Current account deficit deteriorated by 3 percentage points of GDP during FY 2005/06 to approximately 10 percent of GDP, mostly due to higher fuel prices (fully passed on to retail consumers).
  - Net international reserves regained mid-2005 highs; exchange rate broadly stable.
- Inflation and prices:
  - Annual consumer price inflation peaked at 19 percent in September 2005.
  - Food prices (over half the consumer basket) fell by 1½ percent during Q1 2006 compared to an 11 percent increase during April–December 2005.
  - Fuel prices rose 18 percent (year-on-year) during FY 2005/06; headline inflation at end-year was 11½ percent; inflation fell to 8½ percent in May 2006.
- Monetary conditions:
  - Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) removed a special reserve requirement on May 1 and reduced OMO interest rates by 15–20 basis points on May 12; eliminated 270-day and 365-day OMOs.
  - Broad money and credit extension recently picked up.
- Fiscal outcomes FY 2005/06:
  - Balanced budget target missed by 2.7 percent of GDP, mainly due to a tax revenue shortfall of 2½ percent of GDP.
  - Nearly three-quarters of the tax shortfall occurred in consumption taxes despite statutory rate increases in April 2005.
  - Intensified arrears collection in January–March 2006 generated nearly 1 percent of GDP.
- Financial markets:
  - Jamaican Eurobond spreads tightened early 2006; authorities issued a 30-year Eurobond in late February at a yield of 8.55 percent (403 basis point spread), pre-financing external financing needs for FY 2006/07.
  - Spreads widened recently amid global volatility but remain, on average, about one fifth below 2005 peaks.

### Macroeconomic Outlook and FY 2006/07 Budget
- Short-term outlook:
  - FY 2006/07 real GDP growth expected at about 3 percent (up from estimated ~2 percent in FY 2005/06).
  - Inflation expected to end the year under 10 percent (year-on-year).
  - External current account deficit likely to widen to over 13 percent of GDP due to higher oil prices and increased imports related to FDI; BOJ considers FDI and imports likely to be even higher.
  - If global financial markets remain stable, the current account deficit for FY 2006/07 likely financed mostly by private capital inflows (including FDI), with reserves declining only moderately.
- FY 2006/07 budget aggregates and assumptions:
  - Target central government deficit: 2.7 percent of GDP (improvement of 0.9 percentage points of GDP over FY 2005/06 outturn on a comparable basis).
  - Targeted primary surplus: 10.1 percent of GDP (weakening of 0.9 percentage point of GDP from FY 2005/06).
  - Revenues and grants projected to rise to 30⅓ percent of GDP (from 29 percent of GDP in FY 2005/06); no new tax policy initiatives included.
    - Projection hinges on envisaged yield of about 2½ percent of GDP from strengthened tax administration (improved processes and stepped-up arrears collection).
  - Total expenditures expected to increase to 33 percent of GDP (up by ½ percentage points of GDP versus FY 2005/06), concentrated on wages and capital spending.
    - Wages: an MOU with most unions provides for a 13 percent nominal wage increase during FY 2006/07 and a further 5 percent the following year; two major unions have yet to sign.
    - Capital spending: budgeted to double to 3¾ percent of GDP in FY 2006/07, including provisions for one-off expenditures and new programs (housing for the poor and sugar and tourism workers; increased allocations for early childhood education).
  - Decline in debt stocks and fall in domestic interest rates since 2003 expected to reduce the FY 2006/07 interest bill by 1.8 percentage points of GDP compared to FY 2005/06 outturn.

### Fiscal Policy Discussions and Mission Views
- Mission view:
  - Preferred a stronger fiscal effort in FY 2006/07 to claw back deviations from targets in recent years.
  - Noted Jamaica’s recent record of double digit primary surplus to GDP ratios was remarkable, but the nearly 1 percentage point of GDP decline in the primary surplus planned for FY 2006/07 would slow debt reduction.
- Authorities’ view:
  - Emphasized that Jamaica’s primary surplus remains extraordinarily high by international standards; overall deficit expected to continue improving by close to 1 percent of GDP relative to FY 2005/06 outturn.
  - Highlighted active and aggressive tax administration strategy to widen the tax base; mission cautioned that 2½ percent of GDP yield may be optimistic.
- Mission recommended:
  - Introduce revenue measures and reduce entrenched primary expenditure pressures.
  - Consider revenue measures including widening the tax net through presumptive taxation, expanding the tax on motor vehicles, and introducing a capital gains tax.
  - Expenditure-side: civil service reform to rationalize the wage structure and allow attraction and retention of qualified personnel within a leaner overall envelope.
- Operational advice:
  - Underexecute this year’s expenditure program to the extent possible until revenues improve substantially; prepare contingencies if revenues fall short or natural disasters strike.
  - Avoid replacing one-off capital expenditures in this year’s budget with new spending in the medium term; contain recurrent program spending in line with inflation; sustain revenue gains from improved tax administration.

### Fiscal Consolidation, Public Entities, and PetroCaribe Funds
- Pace of fiscal consolidation somewhat slower than envisaged; adverse natural events increased capital repair and rehabilitation costs.
- FY 2006/07 contains one-off expenditures: Cricket World Cup (1 percent of GDP) and Education Transformation Project (0.5 percent of GDP).
- Nonwage primary spending described as "already severely squeezed."
- Mission urged vigilance to ensure public entities do not expand overall spending envelope, including through use of PetroCaribe funds.
  - Public entities’ underlying balances appeared to be weakening.
  - Activities by some entities (e.g., National Insurance Fund plans to extend loans to small enterprises) raised questions about adherence to core mandates.
- Mission recommendation on PetroCaribe:
  - Regularly monitor and disseminate data on all borrowing by public entities.
  - Use concessional PetroCaribe funding to offset more expensive borrowing of the central government.
  - Fully reflect receipts and uses of PetroCaribe funds in government accounts and integrate its administration into the budget process to ensure transparency, efficiency and accountability.
- Authorities’ explanation:
  - Intend to use PetroCaribe cashflow savings to replace already planned but more expensive borrowing by public entities; a PetroCaribe Development Fund (off-budget) to be established, with a committee headed by the Financial Secretary to vet requests.

### Public Enterprises, Sugar Sector, and Reform Guidance
- Public sector entities (selected consolidated balances, percent of GDP or J$ where indicated):
  - Public sector entity balance: 2004/05 Act.: -3.9 ; 2005/06 Bgt proj.: -2.8 ; 2005/06 Prel.: -0.5 ; 2006/07 Bgt proj.: -13.9
  - Three large loss-makers: 2004/05 Act.: -8.4 ; 2005/06 Bgt proj.: -6.8 ; 2005/06 Prel.: -9.2 ; 2006/07 Bgt proj.: -5.6
  - Air Jamaica losses before government transfers: US$136 million (1.3 percent of GDP) last year, up from US$113 million in 2004.
- Mission guidance:
  - First-best principle: ensure commercial viability of public enterprises.
  - If Air Jamaica restructuring fails to improve finances, reconsider the merits of maintaining a flag carrier.
  - Sugar sector: sector accounts for over 6 percent of goods exports, 1 percent of GDP, employs up to 38,000 people; five public sugar estates account for around 60 percent of cane cultivation land.
- Sugar sector costs and strategy:
  - Estimated average cost of production for raw sugar: public estates US$28 cents per pound; private producers US$19 cents per pound.
  - Under WTO ruling, EU price reductions cumulate to 36 percent by 2009.
  - Government medium-term adaptation strategy aims to base industry on raw sugar, molasses, and ethanol; reduce costs to below US$18–19 cents per pound; increase private participation and productivity.
  - Investment costs estimated at €556 million (6½ percent of current GDP) over 2006–15; financing sources not clearly identified.
  - Government announced intended divestment of the SCJ and invited expressions of interest.
  - Suggested priority: help sugarcane farmers transition to other activities and maintain a social safety net.

### Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy
- BOJ policy geared to realizing the inflation objective while ensuring credit grows with recent trends.
- BOJ plans to issue OMO instruments this fiscal year to limit impact on net domestic assets of an expected drawdown of government deposits and continuation of central bank losses.
- Base money programmed to grow by about 12 percent, broadly in line with nominal GDP; expected broad money growth about the same with no change in money multiplier.
- Expected room for credit growth to the economy of about 15 percent, coupled with a small decline in commercial banks’ net foreign assets.
- Mission caution: remain vigilant against capital account pressures from BOJ lowering interest rates while U.S. rates rise; be ready to increase interest rates at the earliest signs of pressures by more than enough to compensate for recent U.S. rate increases.
- Authorities monitor markets daily and allow for exchange rate flexibility as well as changes in interest rates in either direction.

### Financial Sector Reforms
- Strengthening regulation and supervision over security dealers is beginning to increase capital-asset ratios.
- Preparatory work for a consolidated survey of the financial sector, incorporating security dealers, to strengthen monitoring, supervision and analysis.
- Implementation of recently approved Pension Acts will strengthen supervision over private pension companies.

### Medium-Term Outlook, Debt Dynamics, and Risks
- Absent further shocks, medium-term outlook broadly favorable.
- External current account deficit expected to improve starting FY 2008/09 as investment programs come on stream and associated imports fall while earnings rise.
- Barring shocks (in particular hurricanes), annual real GDP growth projected around 3 percent.
- Staff projections: public debt declining to 106 percent of GDP by FY 2010/11 under assumptions:
  - Authorities achieve their deficit target for this year;
  - Realize and maintain planned reductions in expenditures in relation to GDP during FY 2007/08;
  - Limit debt takeovers and guarantees to below recent levels.
- PetroCaribe assumptions: projections assume PetroCaribe savings are fully utilized in a manner that adds on to the public debt (i.e., replace non government-guaranteed borrowings currently undertaken by off-budget entities). Debt would be lower to the extent PetroCaribe savings reduce central government obligations instead.
- Debt dynamics sensitive to external factors: capital inflows (in particular FDI), real exchange rate movements, exogenous declines in international travel and tourism, higher foreign interest rates.

### Key Macroeconomic Projections and Selected Indicators (selected figures preserved)
- Real GDP (annual percentage changes): 2003/04: 1.9 ; 2004/05: 0.4 ; 2005/06: 2.0 ; 2006/07 (Proj.): 2.9 ; 2007/08 (Proj.): 3.0 ; 2008/09 (Proj.): 3.1 ; 2009/10 (Proj.): 3.1 ; 2010/11 (Proj.): 3.1
- Consumer price index (end of period): 2003/04: 16.8 ; 2004/05: 13.2 ; 2005/06: 11.4 ; 2006/07 (Proj.): 9.6 ; 2007/08 (Proj.): 8.0 ; 2008/09 (Proj.): 6.5 ; 2009/10 (Proj.): 5.5 ; 2010/11 (Proj.): 5.5
- Public debt (percent of GDP): 2003/04: 143.7 ; 2004/05: 137.9 ; 2005/06: 132.6 ; 2006/07 (Proj.): 126.1 ; 2007/08 (Proj.): 122.2 ; 2008/09 (Proj.): 117.6 ; 2009/10 (Proj.): 112.3 ; 2010/11 (Proj.): 105.8
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2003/04: -6.8 ; 2004/05: -6.7 ; 2005/06: -9.7 ; 2006/07 (Proj.): -13.2 ; 2007/08 (Proj.): -14.0 ; 2008/09 (Proj.): -11.8 ; 2009/10 (Proj.): -8.9 ; 2010/11 (Proj.): -7.5
- Net international reserves (in millions of US$): 2003/04: 1,569 ; 2004/05: 1,902 ; 2005/06: 2,078 ; 2006/07 (Proj.): 2,000 ; 2007/08 (Proj.): 2,000 ; 2008/09 (Proj.): 2,100 ; 2009/10 (Proj.): 2,200 ; 2010/11 (Proj.): 2,300
- Selected central government levels (in billions of Jamaican dollars): Budgetary revenue: 2003/04: 145.5 ; 2004/05: 171.5 ; 2005/06: 186.7 ; 2006/07 (Budget): 219.2. Budgetary expenditure: 2003/04: 182.4 ; 2004/05: 201.8 ; 2005/06: 210.0 ; 2006/07 (Budget): 238.7.
- Public debt stock (in billions of J$): 2003/04: 712 ; 2004/05: 767 ; 2005/06: 855 ; 2006/07 (Proj.): 911 ; 2007/08 (Proj.): 989 ; 2008/09 (Proj.): 1,052 ; 2009/10 (Proj.): 1,098 ; 2010/11 (Proj.): 1,125
- Government debt (percent of GDP): 2003/04: 136.6 ; 2004/05: 130.6 ; 2005/06: 123.8 ; 2006/07 (Proj.): 114.5 ; 2007/08 (Proj.): 108.0 ; 2008/09 (Proj.): 101.2 ; 2009/10 (Proj.): 94.7 ; 2010/11 (Proj.): 87.7

### Vulnerabilities, Stress Tests, and Explicit Policy Imperatives
- Risks highlighted:
  - Large gross fiscal financing needs and substantial current account deficit require sustained progress in rapidly reducing debt.
  - Sovereign vulnerability amplified by Jamaica’s location in the Caribbean hurricane belt.
  - Political timing (possible election year) complicates achieving difficult fiscal measures.
- Mission explicit policy imperatives:
  - "Make every effort to achieve their revenue objectives."
  - "Strictly avoid undertaking new spending commitments without first identifying additional revenue sources."
  - "Guard against erosion by off-budget entities of the gains made in the budget."
  - Maintain flexibility on monetary policy and "stand ready to increase interest rates if conditions warrant."
  - Continue to "strengthen the resilience of the financial system."

### Appendix I — Fund Relations (selected facts as of May 31, 2006)
- Membership: Joined February 21, 1963; Article VIII.
- Quota and holdings: Quota: 273.50 (SDR Million) — 100.00 percent of quota; Fund holdings of currency: 273.55 (SDR Million) — 100.02 percent of quota.
- Latest financial arrangements: EFF approved Dec. 11, 1992 (Amount Approved: 109.13 (SDR Million); Amount Drawn: 77.75 (SDR Million)); Stand-By arrangements in 1991 and 1990 (amounts approved and drawn listed).
- Projected payments to Fund (SDR Million): 2006 Principal Charges/Interest: 0.73 ; 2007–2010 Principal Charges/Interest: 1.46 each year.
- Exchange rate arrangements: Jamaican dollar determined in an interbank market since September 17, 1990; trading at around J$65 to the U.S. dollar at January 31 (year not specified in the excerpt).
- Technical assistance and last Article IV: Last Article IV consultation completed March 24, 2006 (IMF Country Report No. 06/158); Financial Sector Assessment Program completed and reviewed same date.

*Source: IMF staff report content as provided in the supplied document excerpt.*

### Executive Summary  .....................................................................................................

### Executive Summary

### Overview / Background
- The economy is making a gradual recovery from shocks that began in late 2004; real GDP grew 2.4 percent in Q4 2005, raising calendar-year growth to 1.4 percent (from 0.9 percent in 2004).  
- Headline inflation was 8½ percent in May 2006, down from a peak of 19 percent in September 2005.  
- Public debt is estimated by staff to have fallen from 144 percent (end-FY 2003/04) to about 133 percent of GDP currently; this includes about 2½ percent of GDP in pre-financing for FY 2006/07.  
- The authorities initiated in 2004 a medium-term strategy to reduce public debt from about 144 percent of GDP to around 100 percent of GDP by 2009; the Executive Board supported intensified surveillance of the strategy.  
- Recent higher-than-expected debt reflects lower-than-expected GDP and higher fiscal deficits due to natural disasters and revenue shortfalls.

### Recent Economic Developments
- Growth and labor:
  - Real GDP: 2.4 percent (year-on-year) in Q4 2005; calendar-year growth 1.4 percent in 2005 (up from 0.9 percent in 2004).  
  - Unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage points to 11.3 percent in 2005.
  - Recovery driven by agriculture and tourist arrivals; manufacturing and mining declined in Q4 2005.
- External sector and reserves:
  - Current account deficit estimated to have deteriorated by 3 percentage points of GDP during FY 2005/06 to approximately 10 percent of GDP, mostly on account of higher fuel prices (fully passed on to retail consumers).
  - Net international reserves have recently regained mid-2005 highs; exchange rate broadly stable.
- Inflation and prices:
  - Annual consumer price inflation peaked at 19 percent in September 2005; food prices (over half the consumer basket) fell by 1½ percent during Q1 2006 compared to an 11 percent increase during April–December 2005.
  - Despite an 18 percent (year-on-year) rise in fuel prices during FY 2005/06, headline inflation at end-year was 11½ percent; inflation fell to 8½ percent in May 2006.
- Monetary conditions:
  - Bank of Jamaica removed a special reserve requirement on May 1 and reduced OMO interest rates by 15–20 basis points on May 12; it eliminated 270-day and 365-day OMOs.
  - Broad money and credit extension have recently picked up.
- Fiscal outcomes FY 2005/06:
  - The FY 2005/06 balanced budget target was missed by 2.7 percent of GDP, mainly due to a tax revenue shortfall of 2½ percent of GDP.
  - Nearly three-quarters of the tax shortfall occurred in consumption taxes despite statutory rate increases in April 2005.
  - Intensified arrears collection in January–March 2006 generated nearly 1 percent of GDP.
- Financial markets:
  - Jamaican Eurobond spreads tightened early 2006; authorities issued a 30-year Eurobond in late February at a yield of 8.55 percent (403 basis point spread), pre-financing external financing needs for FY 2006/07.
  - Spreads have widened recently amid global volatility but remain, on average, about one fifth below 2005 peaks.

### Macroeconomic Outlook and the Budget for FY 2006/07
- Short-term outlook:
  - For FY 2006/07, real GDP growth of about 3 percent is expected (up from an estimated outturn of around 2 percent in FY 2005/06).
  - Inflation is expected to remain moderate, ending the year under 10 percent (year-on-year).
  - External current account deficit likely to widen to over 13 percent of GDP due to higher oil prices and increased imports related to FDI; BOJ considers FDI and imports likely to be even higher.
  - If global financial markets remain stable, the current account deficit for FY 2006/07 is likely to be financed mostly by private capital inflows (including FDI), with reserves declining only moderately relative to the start of the fiscal year.
- FY 2006/07 budget aggregates and assumptions:
  - Target central government deficit: 2.7 percent of GDP (an improvement of 0.9 percentage points of GDP over the FY 2005/06 outturn on a comparable basis).
  - Targeted primary surplus: 10.1 percent of GDP (a weakening of 0.9 percentage point of GDP from FY 2005/06).
  - Revenues and grants projected to rise to 30⅓ percent of GDP (from 29 percent of GDP in FY 2005/06); no new tax policy initiatives included.
    - The revenue projection critically hinges on an envisaged yield of about 2½ percent of GDP from strengthened tax administration (improved processes and stepped-up arrears collection).
  - Total expenditures expected to increase to 33 percent of GDP (up by ½ percentage points of GDP versus FY 2005/06), concentrated on wages and capital spending.
    - Wages: an MOU with most unions provides for a 13 percent nominal wage increase during FY 2006/07 and a further 5 percent the following year; two major unions have yet to sign.
    - Capital spending: budgeted to double to 3¾ percent of GDP in FY 2006/07, including provisions for one-off expenditures and new programs (housing for the poor and sugar and tourism workers; increased allocations for early childhood education).
  - The recent decline in debt stocks and a fall in domestic interest rates since 2003 are expected to reduce the FY 2006/07 interest bill by 1.8 percentage points of GDP compared to the FY 2005/06 outturn.

### Policy Discussions — Fiscal Policy
- Mission view:
  - The mission preferred a stronger fiscal effort in the FY 2006/07 budget to claw back deviations from targets in recent years.
  - Noted that Jamaica’s recent record of double digit primary surplus to GDP ratios was remarkable, but the nearly 1 percentage point of GDP decline in the primary surplus planned for FY 2006/07 would slow debt reduction.
- Authorities’ view:
  - Argued that Jamaica’s primary surplus remains extraordinarily high by international standards; emphasized that the overall deficit is expected to continue improving by close to 1 percent of GDP relative to the FY 2005/06 outturn.
  - Highlighted an active and aggressive tax administration strategy to widen the tax base and strengthen the fiscal position; mission cautioned that expectations of 2½ percent of GDP yield from these efforts may be optimistic.
- Structural concerns:
  - Structural reforms and commitments to fiscal discipline by public entities and reform of loss-making enterprises are crucial to prevent off-budget erosion of fiscal gains and to influence debt dynamics.

*Source: Executive Summary (IMF staff report).*

### 13.      While acknowledging that the pace of fiscal consolidation was now somewhat

### _cr06324 - 13.      While acknowledging that the pace of fiscal consolidation was now somewhat

### Fiscal consolidation and near-term outlook
- Pace of fiscal consolidation was somewhat slower than envisaged earlier, but authorities noted substantial progress.
- Adverse natural events from the last two years increased capital repair and rehabilitation costs.
- FY 2006/07 budget contains one-off expenditures: Cricket World Cup (1 percent of GDP) and Education Transformation Project (0.5 percent of GDP).
- Nonwage primary spending was described as "already severely squeezed."
- Authorities emphasized a primary surplus of over 10 percent of GDP as a very considerable fiscal effort.
- Authorities view: budget moving in the right direction, overall deficit improving, debt ratio expected to decline again this year.

### Revenue and expenditure policy recommendations
- Mission advocated revenue or expenditure measures to place fiscal position on a more sustainable footing.
- Cited risk: recent upward trend in global interest rates and increased volatility could create a more difficult environment for highly indebted economies like Jamaica.
- Interest savings could not be relied upon to improve the overall fiscal balance going forward.
- Mission recommendation: consider introducing revenue measures and reducing entrenched primary expenditure pressures.

### Suggested fiscal measures (mission)
- Revenues:
  - Widen the tax net through presumptive taxation.
  - Expand the tax on motor vehicles.
  - Introduce a capital gains tax.
- Expenditures:
  - Civil service reform to rationalize the wage structure and allow the government to attract and retain qualified personnel within a leaner overall envelope.
  - Recognized constraint: FY 2006/07 wage increases notwithstanding, civil servants’ real incomes had declined sharply due to earlier across-the-board wage freezes; overall wage bill remained high after 1990s expansion of public sector employment.

### Authorities' stance on reforms and tax administration
- Authorities: may consider measures if revenue collection efforts falter, but priority is to strengthen tax administration.
- Political economy constraint: major new taxes and civil service reform require political and social consensus that is difficult at current point of electoral cycle.
- Experience in FY 2005/06: tax collections fell in real terms despite increased rates—suggesting limited capacity to generate additional revenues from the tax compliant segment.
- Priority: improve compliance as part of an active and aggressive strategy to widen the tax base and strengthen the fiscal position.

### Tax administration progress and caution
- Commended direction and preliminary results of tax administration efforts, but cautioned expectations may be optimistic.
- Weakness in revenue collections last fiscal year and large stock of outstanding tax arrears suggest further room to improve administration and compliance.
- Recent steps taken: bringing in new expertise, improving taxpayer education and information, easing burden of tax compliance, increasing collaboration between tax authorities and other entities.
- These steps appeared to have discernible effects on collections, but mission judged it optimistic to assume they would yield the full budget projection of a 2½ percent of GDP increase in revenues.
- Total stock of arrears excluding penalties and interest amounted to only 4¾ percent of GDP; likely decreasing returns to arrears recovery.

### Expenditure control and contingency planning
- Agreement that the budget would remain very constrained in the period ahead.
- Mission advised underexecuting this year’s expenditure program to the extent possible until revenues have improved substantially, and preparing contingencies if revenues fell short or natural disasters struck.
- Beyond this year, meeting FY 2007/08 fiscal plans implied:
  - Not replacing one-off capital expenditures in this year’s budget with new spending.
  - Containing spending on other recurrent programs in line with inflation (implying a relative shrinking of government expenditures in relation to GDP).
  - Sustaining much of the revenue gains from improved tax administration expected this year.
- Authorities reiterated difficulties in delaying budgeted expenditures and stated one-time capital expenditures from FY 2006/07 would not be carried forward into the medium term.

### Public entities, PetroCaribe funds, and transparency
- Mission urged vigilance to ensure public entities do not expand the overall spending envelope, including through the use of PetroCaribe funds.
- Public entities’ underlying balances appeared to be weakening (see Box 1).
- Activities by some entities (e.g., National Insurance Fund plans to extend loans to small enterprises) raised questions about adherence to core mandates.
- Concern: authorities’ intentions to use some cashflow savings from the PetroCaribe agreement to finance public entities’ spending.
- Mission recommendation:
  - Regularly monitor and disseminate data on all borrowing by public entities.
  - Use concessional funding from PetroCaribe to offset more expensive borrowing of the central government instead.
  - Fully reflect any receipts and uses of PetroCaribe funds in government accounts and integrate its administration into the budget process to ensure transparency, efficiency and accountability.

### Authorities' explanation on PetroCaribe use
- Authorities intend to use PetroCaribe cash flow savings to replace already planned but more expensive borrowing (including domestic borrowing) by public entities.
- Savings would not be used to increase public entities’ spending relative to current plans.
- A PetroCaribe Development Fund (off-budget) to be established shortly; a committee headed by the Financial Secretary would vet funding requests and the Fund would operate fully in line with legal and constitutional requirements.

### Monetary and exchange rate policy
- Monetary policy geared toward realizing the inflation objective while ensuring credit continues to grow in line with recent trend.
- Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) plans to issue open market operations (OMO) instruments this fiscal year to limit impact on net domestic assets of an expected drawdown of government deposits (associated with the February Eurobond) and continuation of central bank losses.
- Base money programmed to grow by about 12 percent, broadly in line with nominal GDP.
- With no change expected in the money multiplier, expected broad money growth of about the same rate.
- Coupled with a small decline in commercial banks’ net foreign assets, expected room for growth in credit to the economy of about 15 percent.
- Mission caution: remain vigilant against pressures on the capital account due to BOJ lowering interest rates combined with U.S. rate hikes narrowing the Jamaican-U.S. interest differential.
- Authorities should be ready to increase interest rates at the earliest signs of emerging pressures by more than enough to compensate for recent increases in U.S. interest rates.
- Authorities monitor markets daily and allow for exchange rate flexibility as well as changes in interest rates in either direction; reiterated commitment to increase rates if conditions warrant.

### Public sector entities (Box 1) — key figures and dynamics
- Consolidated Balance of Public Sector Entities (selected figures as presented):
  - Public sector entity balance (2004/05 Act.): -3.9
  - Public sector entity balance (2005/06 Bgt proj.): -2.8
  - Public sector entity balance (2005/06 Prel.): -0.5
  - Public sector entity balance (2006/07 Bgt proj.): -13.9
- Selected public entities (2004/05 Act.): 0.7 ; (2005/06 Bgt proj.): 2.0 ; (2005/06 Prel.): 7.5 ; (2006/07 Bgt proj.): -9.9
- Three large loss-makers (2004/05 Act.): -8.4 ; (2005/06 Bgt proj.): -6.8 ; (2005/06 Prel.): -9.2 ; (2006/07 Bgt proj.): -5.6
- Air Jamaica (2004/05 Act.): -6.9 ; (2005/06 Bgt proj.): -5.7 ; (2005/06 Prel.): -7.1 ; (2006/07 Bgt proj.): -5.0
- Memorandum item: Change in net payables (in percent of GDP): -0.8 ; 0.0 ; 1.0 ; 0.1
- Public sector entity balance, adjusted for changes in net payables (in percent of GDP): 0.1 ; -0.4 ; -1.1 ; -2.1
- Notes: figures reported in billions of Jamaican dollars and in percent of GDP where indicated; sources: Jamaican authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

### Structural reforms and loss-making public enterprises
- Mission recommended steps to limit losses of public enterprises.
- Air Jamaica losses before government transfers: US$136 million (1.3 percent of GDP) last year, up from US$113 million in 2004, despite restructuring plan.
- Losses financed through government transfers and commercial loans under government guarantee, adding to government debt burden.
- Sugar Company of Jamaica (SCJ) continues recurring operational losses; long-term prognosis worsened by erosion of preferential trading arrangement with the European Union.
- Authorities noted reform plans provide hope: for Air Jamaica, some losses attributed to one-off fleet rehabilitation and expected future losses to be significantly lower; for sugar, a comprehensive adaptation strategy prepared though financing not fully identified.

### Mission guidance on public enterprise reform
- First-best principle: ensure commercial viability of public enterprises.
- If Air Jamaica’s restructuring fails to steadily improve finances, authorities may need to reconsider merits of maintaining a flag carrier.
- Sugar sector complexities: need to protect vulnerable populations dependent on the sector; current cost-price structure makes global competitiveness in sugarcane farming difficult.
- Diversification of sugar into other cane-based products (rum, ethanol, power co-generation) may not be cost effective.
- Potential: rural areas could supply expanding hotel sector with local produce; priority should be helping sugarcane farmers transition to other activities while ensuring a social safety net.

### Sugar sector prospects (Box 2) — key figures and strategy
- Sugar sector accounts: over 6 percent of goods exports, 1 percent of GDP, and employs up to 38,000 people.
- Five public sugar estates account for around 60 percent of total land area in cane cultivation.
- Estimated average cost of production for raw sugar in public estates: US$28 cents per pound; private Jamaican producers: around US$19 cents per pound.
- Under a WTO ruling, EU price reductions begin this year, cumulating to 36 percent by 2009.
- Government’s medium-term adaptation strategy aims to base future of industry on raw sugar, molasses, and ethanol.
- Strategy: increase private sector participation, reduce costs of production (to below US$18–19 cents per pound), increase productivity, and provide supporting services (human resource development, rural infrastructure, R&D).
- Investment costs estimated in strategy document: €556 million (6½ percent of current GDP) over 2006–15.
- Financing sources not clearly identified; envisaged to include private sector investors and the EU.
- Government announced intended divestment of the SCJ and has invited expressions of interest.
- Suggested priority: help sugarcane farmers transition to other activities and maintain a social safety net.

### Financial sector reforms
- Efforts to strengthen regulation and supervision over security dealers are beginning to increase capital-asset ratios.
- Preparatory work to compile a consolidated survey of the financial sector, incorporating security dealers, to strengthen monitoring, supervision and analysis.
- Implementation of recently approved Pension Acts will help strengthen supervision over private pension companies.

### Medium term outlook and debt dynamics
- Absent further shocks, medium-term outlook is broadly favorable.
- External current account deficit expected to improve starting in FY 2008/09 as large ongoing investment programs come on stream, with currently associated imports falling and earnings rising.
- Barring shocks (in particular hurricanes), annual real GDP growth should remain at about 3 percent, with further improvements contingent on bringing debt down more rapidly than currently envisaged.
- Under current plans, debt/GDP ratio projected to continue to decline steadily.
- Staff projections: debt declining to 106 percent of GDP by FY 2010/11—assume:
  - Authorities achieve their deficit target for this year;
  - Realize and maintain all planned reductions in expenditures in relation to GDP during FY 2007/08;
  - Limit debt takeovers and guarantees to below recent levels.
- If assumptions do not hold, debt will be higher.
- Projections assume PetroCaribe savings are fully utilized in a manner that adds on to the public debt (i.e., that they replace the non government-guaranteed borrowings currently undertaken by off-budget entities, which are not counted as part of the public debt under existing definitions).
- Debt would be lower to the extent PetroCaribe savings reduce central government obligations instead of those of off-budget entities.
- Medium-term projections and debt dynamics also influenced by external sector developments and risks:
  - Sizeable current account deficits projected over the medium term expected to be financed by capital inflows, in particular foreign direct investment.
  - Capital flows influenced by Jamaica’s fundamentals (fiscal and current account balances) and affect real exchange rate movements.
  - Given sizeable share of foreign-currency debt, real exchange rate movements have bearings on debt dynamics.
  - Debt projections sensitive to nonpolicy external risks such as exogenous declines in international travel and tourism and higher foreign interest rates.

*Italic: IMF staff appraisal excerpt from the supplied content unit.*

### 30.      The authorities have deftly charted the economy through a difficult patch. Over

### _cr06324 - 30.      The authorities have deftly charted the economy through a difficult patch.

### Recent economic performance and context
- Over the past two years, Jamaica has had to withstand a series of natural disasters, as well as very large hikes in petroleum prices.
- Authorities’ efforts to limit the deterioration of the government budget deficit and skillfully conduct monetary policy have contributed to current favorable outcomes:
  - Inflation has come down.
  - Economic growth has picked up.
  - International reserves have increased.
  - Borrowing terms have improved.
- The public debt ratio, while still very high and Jamaica’s fundamental challenge, continues to decline.

### Fiscal challenges and policy implications
- This year poses further challenges, requiring intensified fiscal efforts to stay the course and continue to reduce debt rapidly.
- In formulating their medium-term strategy, the authorities had envisaged raising and then maintaining budgetary primary surpluses at levels, and for periods, that have not been replicated elsewhere.
- Recent shocks help explain why recent outcomes have fallen somewhat short of targets.
- Concern: even with the economy improving, the FY 2006/07 budget envisages a further decline in the primary surplus.
  - Consequence: debt will remain higher for a longer period than envisaged during the last Article IV consultation.
- It should be noted that Jamaica’s fiscal primary surplus remains, at 10 percent of GDP, extraordinarily high (including among countries with high debt) by international standards.
- Pressures arising outside of the budget underscore the importance of keeping primary surpluses high if the authorities are to achieve their medium-term objectives.

### Key statistics and time references
- Timeframe: Over the past two years.
- Fiscal year mentioned: FY 2006/07.
- Fiscal metric: primary surplus of 10 percent of GDP.
- Reference benchmark: last Article IV consultation.

*Source: _cr06324 - 30.      The authorities have deftly charted the economy through a difficult patch.*

### 32.      Room for maneuver remains severely limited. The large gross fiscal financing

### _cr06324 - 32.      Room for maneuver remains severely limited.

### Fiscal constraints and risks
- Statement of risk:
  - "The large gross fiscal financing needs and substantial current account deficit represent important risks, whose mitigation requires sustained progress in rapidly reducing debt."
- Sovereign vulnerability to external shocks and natural disasters:
  - "Policymaking is further complicated by Jamaica’s location in the Caribbean hurricane belt."
- Fiscal policy imperatives given limited space:
  - "The absence of fiscal space requires that the authorities make every effort to achieve their revenue objectives, strictly avoid undertaking new spending commitments without first identifying additional revenue sources, and guard against erosion by off-budget entities of the gains made in the budget."
  - Political timing risk: "During a period that could prove to be an election year, these are formidable challenges."

### Monetary and financial sector policy
- Monetary and exchange rate flexibility:
  - "It is comforting that the authorities remain flexible regarding their policy options; in particular, that they stand ready to increase interest rates if conditions warrant."
- Financial system resilience:
  - "They are also encouraged to continue to strengthen the resilience of the financial system."

### Key macroeconomic indicators (selected historical and projected figures)
- Real GDP (annual percentage changes):
  - 2003/04: 1.9
  - 2004/05: 0.4
  - 2005/06: 2.0
  - 2006/07 (Proj.): 2.9
  - 2007/08 (Proj.): 3.0
  - 2008/09 (Proj.): 3.1
  - 2009/10 (Proj.): 3.1
  - 2010/11 (Proj.): 3.1
- Consumer price index (end of period):
  - 2003/04: 16.8
  - 2004/05: 13.2
  - 2005/06: 11.4
  - 2006/07 (Proj.): 9.6
  - 2007/08 (Proj.): 8.0
  - 2008/09 (Proj.): 6.5
  - 2009/10 (Proj.): 5.5
  - 2010/11 (Proj.): 5.5
- Budgetary and fiscal balances (percent of GDP):
  - Budgetary revenue: 2003/04: 29.4; 2004/05: 30.8; 2005/06: 29.0; 2006/07 (Proj.): 30.3; 2007/08 (Proj.): 28.6; 2008/09 (Proj.): 28.4; 2009/10 (Proj.): 28.0; 2010/11 (Proj.): 28.0
  - Budgetary expenditure: 2003/04: 36.8; 2004/05: 36.3; 2005/06: 32.6; 2006/07 (Proj.): 33.0; 2007/08 (Proj.): 30.0; 2008/09 (Proj.): 28.9; 2009/10 (Proj.): 28.0; 2010/11 (Proj.): 26.9
  - Interest payments: 2003/04: 18.5; 2004/05: 17.1; 2005/06: 14.6; 2006/07 (Proj.): 12.8; 2007/08 (Proj.): 11.9; 2008/09 (Proj.): 10.9; 2009/10 (Proj.): 9.9; 2010/11 (Proj.): 8.9
  - Budget balance: 2003/04: -7.4; 2004/05: -5.4; 2005/06: -3.6; 2006/07 (Proj.): -2.7; 2007/08 (Proj.): -1.4; 2008/09 (Proj.): -0.5; 2009/10 (Proj.): 0.0; 2010/11 (Proj.): 1.1
  - Overall fiscal balance: 2003/04: -9.9; 2004/05: -7.1; 2005/06: -5.2; 2006/07 (Proj.): -3.9; 2007/08 (Proj.): -2.7; 2008/09 (Proj.): -1.3; 2009/10 (Proj.): -0.5; 2010/11 (Proj.): 0.9
- Public debt (percent of GDP):
  - 2003/04: 143.7
  - 2004/05: 137.9
  - 2005/06: 132.6
  - 2006/07 (Proj.): 126.1
  - 2007/08 (Proj.): 122.2
  - 2008/09 (Proj.): 117.6
  - 2009/10 (Proj.): 112.3
  - 2010/11 (Proj.): 105.8
- External sector and reserves:
  - Current account balance (percent of GDP):
    - 2003/04: -6.8
    - 2004/05: -6.7
    - 2005/06: -9.7
    - 2006/07 (Proj.): -13.2
    - 2007/08 (Proj.): -14.0
    - 2008/09 (Proj.): -11.8
    - 2009/10 (Proj.): -8.9
    - 2010/11 (Proj.): -7.5
  - Net international reserves (in millions of US$):
    - 2003/04: 1,569
    - 2004/05: 1,902
    - 2005/06: 2,078
    - 2006/07 (Proj.): 2,000
    - 2007/08 (Proj.): 2,000
    - 2008/09 (Proj.): 2,100
    - 2009/10 (Proj.): 2,200
    - 2010/11 (Proj.): 2,300

### Fiscal operations—detailed central government figures (selected levels, in billions of Jamaican dollars)
- Budgetary revenue and grants (levels):
  - 2003/04: 145.5
  - 2004/05: 171.5
  - 2005/06: 186.7
  - 2006/07 (Budget): 219.2
  - 2007/08 (Proj.): 231.5
  - 2008/09 (Proj.): 254.0
  - 2009/10 (Proj.): 273.7
  - 2010/11 (Proj.): 297.8
- Budgetary expenditure (levels):
  - 2003/04: 182.4
  - 2004/05: 201.8
  - 2005/06: 210.0
  - 2006/07 (Budget): 238.7
  - 2007/08 (Proj.): 242.8
  - 2008/09 (Proj.): 258.5
  - 2009/10 (Proj.): 273.4
  - 2010/11 (Proj.): 286.3
- Interest (levels):
  - Total interest: 2003/04: 91.4; 2004/05: 95.4; 2005/06: 94.4; 2006/07 (Budget): 92.4; 2007/08 (Proj.): 96.5; 2008/09 (Proj.): 97.7; 2009/10 (Proj.): 97.2; 2010/11 (Proj.): 94.1
  - Domestic interest: 2003/04: 74.7; 2004/05: 75.3; 2005/06: 71.5; 2006/07 (Budget): 66.3; 2007/08 (Proj.): 67.5; 2008/09 (Proj.): 68.1; 2009/10 (Proj.): 65.9; 2010/11 (Proj.): 61.7

### Debt composition highlights (selected)
- Public debt stock (in billions of J$):
  - 2003/04: 712
  - 2004/05: 767
  - 2005/06: 855
  - 2006/07 (Proj.): 911
  - 2007/08 (Proj.): 989
  - 2008/09 (Proj.): 1,052
  - 2009/10 (Proj.): 1,098
  - 2010/11 (Proj.): 1,125
- Government debt (in percent of GDP):
  - 2003/04: 136.6
  - 2004/05: 130.6
  - 2005/06: 123.8
  - 2006/07 (Proj.): 114.5
  - 2007/08 (Proj.): 108.0
  - 2008/09 (Proj.): 101.2
  - 2009/10 (Proj.): 94.7
  - 2010/11 (Proj.): 87.7
- Foreign currency / US$ linked exposure:
  - US$ linked debt (percent of GDP): 2003/04: 19.5; 2004/05: 15.2; 2005/06: 12.0; 2006/07 (Proj.): 11.2; 2007/08 (Proj.): 10.5; 2008/09 (Proj.): 9.9; 2009/10 (Proj.): 9.3; 2010/11 (Proj.): 8.8

### External sector and balance of payments (selected US$ figures and projections)
- Current account (in millions of US$):
  - 2003/04: -562
  - 2004/05: -606
  - 2005/06: -995
  - 2006/07 (Proj.): -1,431
  - 2007/08 (Proj.): -1,611
  - 2008/09 (Proj.): -1,433
  - 2009/10 (Proj.): -1,149
  - 2010/11 (Proj.): -1,016
- Trade balance (in millions of US$):
  - 2003/04: -1,832
  - 2004/05: -2,125
  - 2005/06: -2,573
  - 2006/07 (Proj.): -2,935
  - 2007/08 (Proj.): -3,242
  - 2008/09 (Proj.): -3,190
  - 2009/10 (Proj.): -3,058
  - 2010/11 (Proj.): -3,102
- Tourism receipts (part of travel, in millions of US$, implied series):
  - Tourism receipts (table row labeled): 2003/04: 1,401; 2004/05: 1,457; 2005/06: 1,590; 2006/07 (Proj.): 1,749; 2007/08 (Proj.): 2,036; 2008/09 (Proj.): 2,214; 2009/10 (Proj.): 2,448; 2010/11 (Proj.): 2,616

### Vulnerability indicators and stress-test insights
- Key indicators (selected):
  - Short-term interest rate (in percent): 2003/04: 33.4; 2004/05: 16.0; 2005/06: 13.5; 2006/07 (Proj.): 13.0; 2007/08 (Proj.): 12.8
  - Gross international reserves (GIR) in US$ billion: 2003/04: 1.4; 2004/05: 1.6; 2005/06: 1.9; 2006/07 (Proj.): 2.1; 2007/08 (Proj.): 2.0
  - Total gross external debt (percent of GDP): 2003/04: 54.8; 2004/05: 54.5; 2005/06: 55.7; 2006/07 (Proj.): 54.6; 2007/08 (Proj.): 53.8
- Public sector sustainability metrics:
  - Public sector gross debt (PSGD, percent of GDP): 2001/02: 146; 2002/03: 144; 2003/04: 138; 2004/05: 133; 2005/06: 126 (projected)
  - Gross financing requirement (percent of GDP): 2001/02: 32; 2002/03: 30; 2003/04: 31; 2004/05: 27; 2005/06: 20
- Stress tests and bound tests (summary):
  - Public debt and external debt bound tests include scenarios for growth shock, primary balance shock, interest rate shock, real depreciation, combined shocks, and contingent liabilities. Examples of scenario averages shown in figures (text boxes) include baseline and scenario averages for variables such as public debt, with baseline public debt percent averages and scenario deviations illustrated (figures and captions provide detailed shock definitions).

### Policy recommendations (explicitly stated)
- Fiscal:
  - "Make every effort to achieve their revenue objectives."
  - "Strictly avoid undertaking new spending commitments without first identifying additional revenue sources."
  - "Guard against erosion by off-budget entities of the gains made in the budget."
- Monetary and financial:
  - Maintain policy option flexibility and "stand ready to increase interest rates if conditions warrant."
  - Continue to "strengthen the resilience of the financial system."

*Source: IMF staff report content as provided in the supplied document excerpt.*

### Appendix I. Jamaica—Fund Relations

### Appendix I. Jamaica—Fund Relations (As of May 31, 2006)

### I. Membership Status
- Joined: February 21, 1963
- Article VIII

### II. General Resources Account
- Quota: 273.50 (SDR Million) — 100.00 percent of quota
- Fund holdings of currency: 273.55 (SDR Million) — 100.02 percent of quota
- Reserve position: 0.00 (SDR Million) — 0.00 percent of quota
- Holdings exchange rate: (no numeric value provided)

### III. SDR Department
- Net cumulative allocation: 40.61 (SDR Million) — 100.00 percent allocation
- Holdings: 0.00 (SDR Million) — 0.01 percent allocation

### IV. Outstanding Purchases and Loans
- None

### V. Latest Financial Arrangements
- EFF
  - Approval Date: Dec. 11, 1992
  - Expiration Date: Mar. 16, 1996
  - Amount Approved: 109.13 (SDR Million)
  - Amount Drawn: 77.75 (SDR Million)
- Stand-By
  - Approval Date: Jun. 28, 1991
  - Expiration Date: Sep. 30, 1992
  - Amount Approved: 43.65 (SDR Million)
  - Amount Drawn: 43.65 (SDR Million)
- Stand-By
  - Approval Date: Mar. 23, 1990
  - Expiration Date: May 31, 1991
  - Amount Approved: 82.00 (SDR Million)
  - Amount Drawn: 82.00 (SDR Million)

### VI. Projected Payments to Fund
- (SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs)
- Forthcoming
  - 2006 Principal Charges/Interest: 0.73 (SDR Million)
  - 2007 Principal Charges/Interest: 1.46 (SDR Million)
  - 2008 Principal Charges/Interest: 1.46 (SDR Million)
  - 2009 Principal Charges/Interest: 1.46 (SDR Million)
  - 2010 Principal Charges/Interest: 1.46 (SDR Million)
- Total (each year equals Principal Charges/Interest above)
  - 2006 Total: 0.73 (SDR Million)
  - 2007 Total: 1.46 (SDR Million)
  - 2008 Total: 1.46 (SDR Million)
  - 2009 Total: 1.46 (SDR Million)
  - 2010 Total: 1.46 (SDR Million)

### VII. Implementation of HIPC Initiative
- Not Applicable

### VIII. Exchange Rate Arrangements
- The external value of the Jamaican dollar has been determined in an interbank market operated by commercial banks beginning September 17, 1990.
- The Jamaican dollar has depreciated significantly since then, though not in a uniform trend.
- At January 31, it was trading at around J$65 to the U.S. dollar.
- Surrender requirement:
  - Authorized foreign exchange dealers and cambios are required to surrender at least 5 percent–but not more than 10 percent–of their purchases of U.S. dollars, Canadian dollars and pound sterling to the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ).
  - The surrender requirement is effected based on the previous day’s average selling rate for the U.S. dollar, the Canadian dollar and the pound sterling, respectively (referred below as “surrender rates”).
  - In 2004, the surrender rates resulted in cross rates between the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar and between the U.S. dollar and the pound sterling to differ periodically (for more than 5 days) by more than 1 percent from the midpoint spot exchange rates for those two currency pairs in their principal markets.
  - While such differences were observed in 2004 leading to a finding that a multiple currency practice arose, the previously identified broken cross rate arising from the currency surrender requirement is no longer apparent since this time.
  - Therefore, there is no evidence that a multiple currency practice arises from the surrender requirement.

### IX. Last Article IV Consultation and Program Relations
- Jamaica is on the standard 12-month consultation cycle.
- The last Article IV consultation was completed by the Executive Board on March 24, 2006 (IMF Country Report No. 06/158).
- A Financial Sector Assessment Program was completed and reviewed by the Executive Board on the same date.
- Two interim staff reports were prepared for information of the Executive Board in-between Article IV consultations (IMF Country Report No. 05/61 and IMF Country Report No. 05/219).

### X. Technical Assistance
- MAE
  - May 1995: Review of deposit insurance scheme
  - October–December 1995: Banking supervision
  - February–June 1996: Banking supervision
  - September 1996: Banking crisis and restructuring
  - October 1996: Banking supervision
  - February 1997: Central bank accounting
  - May 1997: Banking supervision
  - August 1997: Banking supervision
  - January 1998: Banking supervision
  - April 1998: Public debt management
  - May 1998: Financial sector restructuring
  - April 2001: Banking supervision
  - January 2002: Banking supervision
- STA
  - September 1996: Multisector statistics assessment
  - July 2002: Organization of Statistics Office
  - April–May 2006: Monetary and financial statistics

### XI. Resident Representative
- The post of the resident representative was closed on August 1997.

*Appendix I. Jamaica—Fund Relations (As of May 31, 2006)*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/_cr06324.pdf_