## _cr07140 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [_cr07140](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2007/_cr07140.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2007/_cr07140.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2007/_cr07140.pdf.json) --- ### MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION — executive-summary findings and outcomes - Context (2005): inadequate external financial assistance; inflation of 29.7 percent resulting from steep depreciation of the Guinean franc. - Real GDP growth: - 2005: 3.3 percent - 2004: 2.7 percent - Average 2002–2005: 2.9 percent - Population growth rate: 3.1 percent - Monetary and external position: - Foreign exchange reserves: 1.1 months of imports in 2005 (PRSP goal: 6 months) - Factors for weak reserves: lack of budgetary aid, unsustainable external debt service, unification and liberalization of the foreign exchange market in March 2005, non-repatriation of export revenues - IMF staff-monitored program (April 2005–March 2006) quantitative objectives included: - Real GDP growth of 3 percent in 2005 - Year-on-year inflation target of 28 percent in 2005 - GNF/USD exchange rate target: 3,200 - Current account deficit reduction from 5.5 percent of GDP in 2004 to 3.8 percent in 2005 - Overall balance improvement from -2.5 percent of GDP in 2004 to +0.1 percent of GDP in 2005 - Increase gross foreign exchange reserves from 0.8 to 1.3 months of imports during 2005 - Maintain overall public financing deficit (cash basis) at 1 percent of GDP during H1 2005 - Monetary expansion held at 32.1 percent by end-2005 - Primary surplus of 0.5 percent of GDP in 2005 - Macro outcomes (2005 evaluation): - Economic growth: 3.3 percent (2005) vs 2.7 percent (2004) - Per capita GDP growth per annum (2002–2005 average): -0.3 percent (targets not met) - Achievement statement: all quantitative objectives of the staff-monitored program were achieved ### MACROECONOMIC POLICY AND MEDIUM-TERM OBJECTIVES (2006–2008) - Government action: implementation of staff-monitored program with IMF; program-budget reforms initiated (program budget approach; June 2005 training; pilot in six ministerial departments) - Medium-term macroeconomic objectives: - Average real GDP growth of 5.5 percent per annum - Reduce inflation from annual average of 24 percent in 2006 to 6 percent by 2008 - Increase Central Bank foreign exchange reserves from 1.5 months of imports in 2006 to 2.3 months by 2008 - Maintain budget deficit (excluding grants) at 0.3 percent of GDP in 2006 - Achieve a positive budget balance (excluding grants) from 2007 onward - Increase tax ratio from 13.8 percent in 2006 to 14.8 percent in 2008 - Limit total expenditures to around 14.5 percent of GDP during 2007 - Limit money supply expansion to restrain inflationary pressures ### PUBLIC FINANCE, PRIORITY INVESTMENT, AND PRIVATIZATION - Priority sectors share of National Development Budget (NDB) investment expenditures: - 2002: 50.5 - 2003: 49.1 - 2004: 73.0 - 2005: 58.6 - Sectoral NDB shares (selected; 2002–2005): - Education: 12.6, 6.6, 5.8, 13.5 - Public health: 4.5, 3.4, 1.7, 5.6 - Agriculture, Forestry and Livestock: 25.6, 24.7, 20.0, 20.4 - Explanatory factors for 2005 decline in priority-sector allocations: poor MTEF unit management, failure to monitor funding, low level of budgetary aid - Privatization/divestiture (2005 accomplishments): - Realized privatization receipts: SIPL real estate assets GNF 1.3 billion; other assets including SIPECO GNF 257.3 million - Privatization Unit mobilized GNF 14.2 billion vs forecast GNF 14.6 billion (realization rate ~97 percent) - Selected company transactions and share transfers preserved as reported (e.g., BICIGUI: encashed value "GNF 13 billion"; SOPRAG: Govt. share 10% -> transferred 10% -> remaining 0%) - Public finance aggregates (percent of GDP, 2003–2005): - Revenue and grants: 13.7 (2003), 11.4 (2004), 14.4 (2005) - Revenue: 10.4 (2003), 10.5 (2004), 13.2 (2005) - Grants (of which HIPC): 3.2 (2003), 0.9 (2004), 1.0 (2005); HIPC: 0.5 (2003), 0.2 (2004), 0.8 (2005) - Total expenditures: 18.8 (2003), 16.2 (2004), 14.4 (2005) - Current expenditures: 12.8 (2003), 11.4 (2004), 10.3 (2005) - Investments: 5.4 (2003), 5.0 (2004), 4.2 (2005) - Debt service: 3.4 (2003), 5.4 (2004), 3.4 (2005) - Overall fiscal balance (excluding grants): -7.9 (2003), -5.9 (2004), -1.4 (2005) - Noted improvements: non-mining revenues increased due to enforcement of structural measures and adoption of WAEMU CET; grants and HIPC funds fluctuated as reported ### SECTORS WITH GROWTH POTENTIAL — agriculture, fisheries, mining, tourism - Agriculture, livestock, water, forestry — production (2004 -> 2005): - Rice: 900,000 metric tons -> 972,000 metric tons (increase of 8 percent) - Fonio: (table values) 219,000 metric tons in 2005 (increase of 10 percent over 2004) - Groundnuts: 183,000 metric tons in 2005 (increase of 9 percent over 2004) - Rice imports: 333,236 metric tons in 2004 -> 282,298 metric tons in 2005 - Agricultural sector contribution to GDP: about 25.2 percent - Fisheries and aquaculture — 2005 achievements: - Two research campaigns; observations of 1,567 cetacean individuals and 5 species identified - Strategic development plan for fisheries research prepared; national plan for ray and shark conservation; study identifying new fisheries (e.g., crabbing) - Training of 533 fish farmers operating 482 ponds producing about 35 metric tons/year - Credit and funds established: credit for artisanal fishermen USD 112,500; fund of USD 500,000; microcredit GNF 39 million to women, GNF 238.10 million to fishermen - Coastal surveillance: 341 ocean surveillance missions; boarding of eighteen (18) vessels for infractions - 2005 landings: 61,000 metric tons frozen fish; 40,000 metric tons fresh fish; 8,000 metric tons river-caught fish - Sector GDP growth fell from 2.4 percent in 2004 to 1.6 percent in 2005 (text indicates loss) - Mining and geology — performance and expansion: - Mining sector growth: 1.1 percent (2004) -> 3.6 percent (2005) - Mining titles issued: 81 in 2004; 248 prospecting permits in 2005 (increase over 310 percent) - Government signed Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI); pledged two revenue reports (unaudited June 2006; audited September 2006) - Megaprojects and expected impacts: Sangarédi and Kamsar aluminum projects; Integrated Complex at Dian-Dian; potential nearly 22,000 permanent jobs and over 50,000 indirect jobs - Tourism and handicrafts — 2005 normative work and constraints: - Reviewed Handicrafts Code implementing provisions; feasibility studies and Pilot Artisans’ Center Phase 1 in progress - Constraints: scarcity/high cost of water and electricity, poor site accessibility, high cost of air travel ### BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE — energy, water, transport, telecommunications - Energy (2005–2006 reporting): - On-site interventions in Conakry and secondary cities continued - Completion of works for connections to three thermal plants at Kankan, N’Zérékoré and Faranah - Master Plan for electrification finalized; electrification project for 24 localities prepared and presented March 2006 - Policy emphasis: private operator reforms, restore financial viability, strengthen regulatory framework, pricing policy aligned with social welfare and enterprise viability; envisaged 20-percent power and water rate adjustment for large industrial consumers; overall pricing policy for power and water to be approved by January 2007 - Water subsector (SNAPE activity and outcomes): - Annual boreholes developed by SNAPE: 2002: 749; 2005: 252 (39 fewer than in 2004) - SNAPE 2005 outputs: 949 positive boreholes; 16 simplified solar-powered water systems; 43 large-bore wells; 2,675 latrines; rehabilitation of 8 solar systems with HIPC financing - SNAPE cumulative objective for 2005: 15,000 water points; implementation rate reported as 82 percent with cumulative totals ~12,814–12,840 - Access to safe water: 64.3 percent in 2002 (EIBEP 2002/2003); disparity urban/rural reported as 53 percent and 85.6 percent in 2002 - Main problems: financial viability, need for payment culture, production/distribution capacity shortfalls - Transportation and public works (2002–2005 results vs PRSP objectives): - Rehabilitation of rural roads, maintenance, crossing structures, paving and targeted urban works reported with partial completion (selected examples preserved as reported) - Telecommunications (2005): - Expansion of SOTELGUI GSM network: cities served increased from 21 to 22 out of 33 (service coverage rate 67 percent); Dabola added - Other operators Intercel and Spacetel serve only Conakry; granting a fourth license to InvestCom expected to improve coverage - Telecom service density targets: from 0.5 (2002) to 1 (2004) and planned 1.5 by 2010; SOTELGUI GSM subscribers: 90,000 (2003), 150,000 (2004), n.d. (2005) - Main challenge: quality of service remains poor; planned regulatory actions include ARPT operationalization and licensing under new law with action plan by December 2006 ### SOCIAL SECTORS — health, education, social protection - Health sector (2004–2005 achievements and constraints): - DTCP3 vaccination coverage improved from 63 percent to 89 percent between 2004 and 2005; 30 out of 33 prefectures exceed 80 percent DTCP3 coverage - VAR antigen: 60 percent -> 82 percent (2004 -> 2005) - VAA antigen: 77 percent -> 84 percent (2004 -> 2005) - Integrated health posts: 604 -> 623 (about 3 percent increase) - Integrated health centers: 395 -> 399 (4 percentage points increase) - Infant mortality: 98 per thousand (1999) -> 91 per thousand (2005) - Child mortality: 88 per thousand -> 79 per thousand - Infant/child mortality combined: 177 per thousand -> 163 per thousand - Malnutrition among under-5: 26 percent growth deficiency in 2005 vs 23 percent in 1999; 35 percent underweight in 2005 vs 26 percent in 1999 - HIV/AIDS (2005): of 5,002 women tested, 1,550 placed on ARV treatment (1,295 free); national seroprevalence 1.5 percent (women 1.9 percent; men 0.9 percent); 7,800 AIDS orphans covered (1,078 girls) - Constraints: drug stockouts due to currency devaluation and supply chain issues; underequipment; high service costs; informal pharmaceutical market (fraudulent imports ~45 percent) - Planned 2006 interventions: decentralize HIV services, strengthen malaria/tuberculosis IEC (Global Fund), pilot subcontracting with private providers, finalize pharmaceutical policy, human resource development plan, create midwifery track at Donka - Education sector (2004–2005 outcomes and financing): - Gross primary enrollment ratio (GPER): 77 percent (2004) -> 79 percent (2005); GPER for girls 73 percent (2005) - Girl/boy ratio primary: 0.76 -> 0.79 (2004 -> 2005); secondary: 0.47–0.49 - Access rates: national 73.3 percent; Conakry ~89 percent; other urban interior 87 percent; rural 67.4 percent - Government current expenditures: total current expenditures GNF 671.76 billion (2004) -> GNF 1,221.49 billion (2005) - Education current expenditures: GNF 165.46 billion (2004) -> GNF 197.92 billion (2005); education accounted for 1.7 percent of expenditures in 2005 (low vs Sub-Saharan Africa average ~4 percent) - Education current expenditure by subsector (2002–2005): - Pre-University: 93.0, 99.9, 111.4, 125.16 GNF billion (shares 68.5%, 67.1%, 67.3%, 63.2%) - Technical and Vocational: 11.8, 12.4, 14.0, 12.29 GNF billion (shares 8.7%, 8.3%, 8.4%, 6.2%) - Higher Education: 30.9, 36.5, 40.1, 60.49 GNF billion (shares 22.8%, 24.5%, 24.2%, 30.6%) - Concern: technical and vocational current share below EFA goal of 8 percent; only Higher Education received increased allocation in 2005 - Social welfare, women and children (2005 results and 2006 plans): - 19 Financial Service Associations established; mobilized 101,793 shares; mobilized capital GNF 101.8 million (real terms) and obtained credit GNF 331.4 million - Women’s Literacy Program targeting 300,000 women launched - CNSS: actuarial report reviewed; government debt to CNSS a little over GNF 14 billion as of December 31, 2005; measures under consideration include raising floor/ceiling salary levels subject to withholding and raising retirement age - 2006 social plans: review sectoral policies, monitor utilization of facilities and funds, strengthen coordination of Women’s Literacy Program, implement study results on street children and child labor, finalize analysis and action plan for orphans and vulnerable children ### GOVERNANCE, ANTI-CORRUPTION, AND SECURITY - Governance actions (2005): - Creation by decree of a National Electoral Commission (CENA) - Finalization of draft Code of Decentralized Collectivities merging 87 texts - Training of 48 officials at Sérédou in administration and election management - Two laws promulgated regulating associations, groups, mutuals, cooperatives - ANLC anti-corruption activity (2005): - Received/examined 16 complaints: 2 resolved to parties’ satisfaction; 4 referred to jurisdictions; 10 require travel to interior - Reporting workshops held July–August 2005; IEC activities planned (documentary, cartoons, billboards) - Corruption prevalence from 2003 ENCOG: 36 percent; continued outreach, whistleblower protection, oversight, and sanctions recommended - ANLC minimum program planned: establish anti-corruption focal points in ministries; reorganize ANLC; prepare anti-corruption law - Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI): - Steering Committee established by Decree 2858/MMG/SGG2005; tasked with compiling statistics and publishing mining revenue data; Permanent Committee restructured into subcommissions (statistics, audits, communication) - Security and justice: - Police recruitment: 1,500 police officers recruited in 2005; additional planned 315 officers for civil security in 2006 - Seizures and anti-drug actions: 5 metric tons cannabis; 1,121 kilograms heroin; 2.1 kilograms cocaine incinerated December 29, 2005 - Judicial outputs: courts rendered 2,260 final criminal verdicts and 2,129 final civil verdicts - Persisting problems: inadequate staffing and training; poor infrastructure; concentration of legal personnel in Conakry; interference by administrative authorities ### POVERTY MONITORING, EVALUATION, AND PRSP TARGETS - PRSP medium-term goals and targets (selected): - Reduce national poverty incidence from 62.6 percent in 1994/95 to 30 percent by 2010 - Reduce rural incidence from 82.1 percent to 38 percent by 2010 - Increase gross primary enrollment ratio (GER) from 56.7 percent in 1999/00 to 100 percent by 2012 (girls from 44.3 percent to 100 percent) - Reduce infant mortality rate from 98 per thousand in 1999 to 70 per thousand by 2005 and 50 per thousand by 2010 - Increase access to safe water from 49 percent in 1999 to 80 percent in 2005 and 100 percent in 2010 - 2005 implementation context and constraints: - Inflation: 29.7 percent year-on-year in 2005; money supply 17.1 percent of GDP vs objective 15.6 percent - Staple food prices: rice GNF 2,472/kilo (Dec 2005; +37 percent vs 2004); potatoes GNF 1,507/kilo (Dec 2005; +33 percent vs 2004) - Refugees and migration pressures: 63,264 refugees present (51,428 Liberians; 5,121 Sierra Leoneans) - Political developments: municipal/community elections Dec 18, 2005; opposition obtained 7 of 38 municipalities (18 percent) and 62 of 303 CRDs (20 percent) - Poverty trends and drivers: - Poverty prevalence: 53.6 percent (2005); 50.1 percent (2004); 49.2 percent (2002) — deterioration of 4.4 percent over 2002–2005 - World Bank–based calculation cited: average growth discrepancy 2.3 percent over 2002–2005; poverty/growth elasticity -1.19 percent; implied increase in poverty 2.74 percent - Demographic pressure: population growth 3.1 percent outstripping average economic growth - Poverty monitoring and evaluation actions (2005): - Work on 56 core PRS indicators; metadata and trend report prepared (SP-SRP, GTZ) - Processing of EIBEP and ESB baseline survey; preliminary results of third Health and Population Survey published - Capacity building in PRS Secretariat for PAMS models - PRS-2 to be prepared participatorily using thematic reports, regional PRS inputs, and evaluations - Remaining monitoring challenges and planned actions: - Problems: weak statistical capacities; unreliable national data; poor capacities at decentralized levels; procurement irregularities - Planned 2006 actions: develop SNDS; continue evaluations; prepare RGPH; capacity building for decentralized monitoring; fine-tune regional strategies ### SELECTED KEY INDICATORS (as reported) - Incidence of poverty at national level: 62.6% (1995); 50.0 (2003); 50.1 (2004); 53.6 (2005). PRSP target: 30% (2010) - GDP growth (% p.a.): 3.7 (1996/00); 5.2 (2002/05 PRSP target); 1.2 (2003); 2.7 (2004); 3.3 (2005) - GDP growth per capita (%): 1.01 (1996/00); 1.9 (2002/05); -1.8 (2003); -0.4 (2004); 0.1 (2005) - Investment rate (% of GDP): 16.2 (1996/00); 18 (2002/05); 16.1 (2003); 8.9 (2004); 13.2 (2005) - Inflation (% y/y): 14.8 (2003); 27.6 (2004); 29.7 (2005) - Global budget balance (commitment basis, excl. grants, % of GDP): -7.9 (2003); -5.9 (2004); -0.8 (2005) - Gross primary enrollment ratio (%): 74.0 (2003); 77.0 (2004); 79.0 (2005) - Infant mortality rate (‰): 98 (1999 baseline); 91 (2005) - HIV seroprevalence rate (%): 1.5 (2005) - Number of water points developed annually: planned 800; completions: 658 (2003); 291 (2004); 252 (2005) - Number of integrated health posts: 384 (2002); 515 (2003); 604 (2004); 623 (2005) - Number of integrated health centers: 371 (2002); 391 (2003); 395 (2004); 399 (2005) *Source: PART I–III and 4.1: Excerpts from the PRS implementation report (2005) as provided in content unit _cr07140.* ### PART I: ECONOMIC GROWTH ................................................................................................ ### PART I: ECONOMIC GROWTH ### MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION — Executive summary findings - The report reflects PRS implementation in 2005 and assesses progress relative to 2004. - Economic context in 2005: inadequate external financial assistance and high inflation of 29.7 percent resulting from steep depreciation of the Guinean franc. - Real GDP growth: - 2005: 3.3 percent - 2004: 2.7 percent - Average economic growth over 2002-2005: 2.9 percent - Population growth rate: 3.1 percent - Monetary and external position: - Foreign exchange reserves: 1.1 months of imports in 2005 (PRSP goal: 6 months) - Factors cited for weak reserve performance: lack of budgetary aid, unsustainable external debt service, unification and liberalization of the foreign exchange market in March 2005, and non-repatriation of export revenues. - Poverty indicators: - Population below the poverty threshold: 53.6 percent in 2005 - 50.1 percent in 2004 - 49.2 percent in 2002 - Reported deterioration of 4.4 percent in four years (2002–2005), attributed to poor macroeconomic performance and low economic growth. ### MACROECONOMIC POLICY AND MEDIUM-TERM OBJECTIVES - The Government implemented a staff-monitored program with the IMF; overall implementation results described as satisfactory. - Recent budgetary management reforms: - Introduction of the ‘program budget’ approach to resource allocation. - Training workshop in June 2005 on program budget concepts. - Planned pilot testing in six ministerial departments following the workshop. - Medium-term macroeconomic objectives (2006–2008): - Average real GDP growth of 5.5 percent per annum. - Reduction of inflation from its annual average of 24 percent in 2006 to 6 percent by 2008. - Increase in the Central Bank’s foreign exchange reserves from the equivalent of 1.5 months of imports in 2006 to 2.3 months by 2008. - Maintenance of the budget deficit (excluding grants) at 0.3 percent of GDP in 2006. - A positive budget balance (excluding grants) from 2007 onwards. ### PUBLIC FINANCE AND INVESTMENT IN PRIORITY SECTORS - Priority sectors accounted for 58.6 percent of investment expenditures under the National Development Budget (NDB) in 2005, down from 73.0 percent in 2004. - Social sectors increased their share of NDB: - Education: 5.8 percent of the NDB in 2004; 13.5 percent in 2005. - Health: 1.7 percent of the NDB in 2004; 5.6 percent in 2005. - Reported reasons for decline in allocations to priority sectors in 2005: - Poor management of the MTEF units. - Failure to monitor funding. - Low level of budgetary aid. - Expected fiscal effects of program-budget approach: - Align government budget with PRSP priorities. - Likely decrease in extra-budgetary expenditures in security and defense sectors. ### SECTORS WITH GROWTH POTENTIAL — Agriculture, Fisheries, Mining, Tourism - Agriculture, livestock, water, and forestry — production increases in 2005: - Rice: from 900,000 metric tons in 2004 to 972,000 metric tons in 2005 (increase of 8 percent). - Fonio: 219,000 metric tons in 2005 (increase of 10 percent over 2004). - Groundnuts: 183,000 metric tons in 2005 (increase of 9 percent over 2004). - Fisheries and aquaculture — achievements in 2005: - Progress in scientific research and improved knowledge of fisheries resources. - Preparation of a strategic development plan for fisheries research. - Establishment of a national plan for ray and shark conservation. - Completion of a study to identify new fisheries (e.g., crabbing). - Creation of a Scientific Committee within the National Center for Fisheries Science at Boussoura (CNSHB). - Mining and geology — performance: - Growth rate increased from 1.10 percent in 2004 to 3.6 percent in 2005. - Attributed to Government promotional efforts: strengthen mining administration, train human resources, and support megaprojects. - Government has signed the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). - Tourism and handicrafts — normative work in 2005: - Review and updating of implementing provisions of the Handicrafts Code at a workshop in Mamou in April. - Provisions relate to improved maintenance of the Artisans’ Registry and Enterprise Registry and to the functioning of the handicrafts trade. ### BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE — Energy and Water (selected findings) - Energy sector activities (2005–2006 reporting): - Continued on-site interventions in Conakry and secondary cities. - Completion of works to install three thermal power plants at Kankan, N’Zérékoré and Faranah. - Preparation of a final version of the Master Plan for electrification. - Development of an electrification project involving 24 localities; presented to a national workshop in March 2006 by the Department of Energy. - Water subsector observations: - Most interventions carried out by SNAPE. - Number of boreholes developed annually by SNAPE declined: - 2002: 749 boreholes - 2005: 252 boreholes - The 2005 figure represents 39 fewer water points in 2005 than in (text cut off). ### SOCIOECONOMIC CONTEXT AND OTHER CONSTRAINTS - Chronic delivery problems in water and power hamper SME/SMI expansion, limiting wealth- and job-creation and depriving thousands of people of income. - Regional security and humanitarian context: - Although peace has been restored to Sierra Leone and Liberia, securing borders with these countries remains imperative and expensive, weighing heavily on the national budget. - Refugee presence: 63,264 refugees still present on Guinean soil (date context: report covering 2005), with economic, social, and environmental impacts. ### POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND PRIORITIES (as reflected in the report) - Continue implementation of IMF staff-monitored program to stabilize macroeconomy. - Advance program-budget reforms and capacity-building to align budget allocation with PRSP priorities and reduce extra-budgetary spending. - Mobilize external financing and budgetary aid to rebuild foreign exchange reserves and support priority sectors. - Strengthen sectoral strategies and institutional capacity in agriculture, fisheries, mining, energy, and water to support sustained growth and poverty reduction. - Address infrastructure bottlenecks (power and water) to enable SME/SMI growth and job creation. - Maintain humanitarian and security-related expenditures while seeking cost-effective approaches to border and refugee management. *Source: PART I: ECONOMIC GROWTH (Executive Summary and selected sections) — PRS implementation report, 2005.* ### 2004. Well construction numbers have fallen each year (by 7 wells on ### _cr07140 - 2004. Well construction numbers have fallen each year (by 7 wells on ### Telecommunications - In 2005 the main activities involved expansion of the SOTELGUI telephone network. - Number of cities served by the GSM network went from 21 to 22, out of a total of 33, for a service coverage rate of 67 percent. - The city of Dabola was incorporated into SOTELGUI’s GSM network in 2005. - The two other operators, Intercel and Spacetel, serve only the city of Conakry. - Granting of a fourth license to InvestCom should improve telephone service coverage. - Main challenge: quality of services provided by operators “leaves much to be desired.” - Planned measures (2006): negotiation of operating licenses for operators in accordance with the new regulatory framework; preparation of an action plan, to be adopted in December 2006, for establishing the independent regulatory agency provided for under the new telecommunications law. ### Health sector: achievements (2004–2005) and challenges - DTCP3 vaccination coverage improved from 63 percent to 89 percent between 2004 and 2005. - Coverage by prefecture: 30 out of 33 prefectures have a DTCP3 coverage rate exceeding 80 percent; the 8 others have a coverage rate below 80 percent. - VAR antigen coverage improved from 60 percent to 82 percent between 2004 and 2005. - VAA antigen coverage improved from 77 percent to 84 percent between 2004 and 2005. - Number of integrated health posts rose from 604 to 623 (an increase of about 3 percent). - Number of integrated health centers increased from 395 to 399 (an increase of 4 percentage points). - Infant, child, and infant/child mortality rates dropped between 1999 and 2005: - Infant mortality: from 98 per thousand to 91 per thousand. - Child mortality: from 88 per thousand to 79 per thousand. - Infant/child mortality: from 177 per thousand to 163 per thousand. - Stated goal: infant mortality rate of 70 per thousand (not yet achieved). - Malnutrition among children under five: - 26 percent of children manifested growth deficiency in 2005, compared to 23 percent in 1999. - 35 percent of children are underweight in 2005, compared to 26 percent in 1999. - HIV/AIDS interventions and outcomes (2005): - Of 5,002 women tested, 1,550 were placed on antiretroviral (ARV) treatment, 1,295 of them free of charge. - Seven thousand eight hundred (7,800) AIDS orphans, including 1,078 girls, were taken into financed care. - National HIV/AIDS seroprevalence held below the PRSP target of 5 percent. - Prevalence rates: 1.5 percent nationally; 1.9 percent among women; 0.9 percent among men. ### Health sector: planned 2006 interventions (NDPH-guided) - Decentralization of health care coverage of HIV in all administrative regions, including ARV treatment activities, psychosocial services, information to promote behavioral change, prevention of mother-to-child transmission, and support to associations of persons living with HIV. - Strengthening of efforts to combat malaria and tuberculosis through IEC activities financed by the Global Fund. - Pilot experiments to establish a subcontracting system between the administration and the private sector to better integrate private providers and foster ownership of health centers by Rural Development Communities. - Finalization and validation of the new pharmaceutical policy to improve regulation, combat the illegal market, and promote establishment of private pharmacies in the interior. - Preparation of a human resource development plan for recruitment planning, career management, staff training and incentives to work in poor areas. - Creation of a midwifery track at the paramedical professions institute (Institut de formation et de spécialisation des professions paramédicales) at Donka; decentralization of training programs for candidates seeking the specialized certification (certificat d’études spécialisées) for regional hospitals. ### Education sector: outcomes and financing (2004–2005) - Gross primary enrollment ratio (GPER) rose from 77 percent in 2004 to 79 percent in 2005. - GPER for girls reached 73 percent in 2005. - Girl/boy ratio at primary level increased from 0.76 to 0.79 from 2004 to 2005. - Girl/boy ratio at secondary level ranges from 0.47 to 0.49. - School access rates: - Country overall: 73.3 percent. - Conakry (urban): nearly 89 percent. - Other cities of the interior (urban): 87 percent. - Rural areas: 67.4 percent. - Government current expenditures: - Total current government expenditures rose from GNF 671.76 billion in 2004 to GNF 1,221.49 billion in 2005. - Education sector current expenditures rose from GNF 165.46 billion to GNF 197.92 billion. - Education sector current expenditures account for 1.7 percent of expenditures (noted as low compared to Sub-Saharan Africa average of about 4 percent). ### Social welfare and women/children promotion (2005 results and 2006 plans) - 2005 results: - Updating of national policy on the promotion of women. - Training of officials of the National Directorate for Women’s Affairs in management and public administration and development project management. - Training of outreach workers of CAAFs and “NAFA” Centers at Kaloum, Fria, Labé, and Lélouma in family life and birth control; provision of equipment to these centers. - Establishment of 19 Financial Service Associations (FSA) in named prefectures; through placement of 101,793 shares mobilized capital valued at GNF 101.8 million in real terms and obtained credit totaling GNF 331.4 million. - Positive assessment at Lorombo (Cisséla sub-prefecture) of first round of reinsertions involving 97 residents of the Cité de Solidarité. - Government examined, during April 2005, the actuarial evaluation report of the National Social Security Fund (Caisse Nationale de Sécurité Sociale, CNSS) to enforce measures concerning: - Raising of floor and ceiling salary levels subject to withholding; - Raising of the retirement age; - Improving registration and coverage of contribution; - Reorganization of the financial relationship between the CNSS and the Government. - 2006 planned activities (social safety net / women & children): - Review of sectoral policies of the Ministry of Social Welfare, including those related to the promotion of Women and Children. - Monitoring of facilities utilization and of funds to support targeted population segments. - Strengthening of coordination capacities of the Three-Year Women’s Literacy Program. - Implementation of results of the qualitative and quantitative study of Guinea’s street children and child labor. - Organization of a subregional meeting on children in trouble with the law. - Finalization of the analysis on the situation of orphans and vulnerable children, followed by development of an action plan. - Efforts to combat begging by children. ### Governance, anti-corruption, and capacity building - 2005 governance progress: - Creation, by decree, of a National Electoral Commission (Commission Electorale Nationale Autonome, CENA). - Finalization of the draft Code of Decentralized Collectivities merging 87 legislative and regulatory texts. - Training of 48 officers at the Sérédou training center in administration, management of collectivities, and election management techniques. - Preparation and promulgation of two laws regulating activities of associations, groups, mutuals, and cooperatives. - Anti-corruption agency (ANLC) activity in 2005: - Despite scant resources, the ANLC received and examined 16 complaints. - Two were resolved to the parties’ satisfaction. - Four were referred to relevant jurisdictions. - Ten require travel to the interior of the country. - ANLC held reporting workshops in July and August 2005 in administrative regions and Conakry to discuss results of the corruption and governance survey; Faranah workshop scheduled for July 2006. - IEC activities included planned showing of a documentary film, cartoons, and installation of billboards concerning corruption and governance. - Planned anti-corruption minimum program (ANLC): - Establishment of anti-corruption focal points within ministerial departments. - Reorganization of the ANLC to add some authority on governance issues to its mandate. - Preparation of an anti-corruption law. ### Extractive industries transparency - Government and the World Bank agreed to establish a steering committee on transparency in the extractive industries. - Steering Committee created by Decree 2858/MMG/SGG2005. - Tasked with compiling available statistics (on the basis of commitment or disbursement data from audits) and publishing data on mining revenues. ### Power, water, mining, fisheries, tourism, and urban development outlooks and priorities - Power and water: - Policies needed to restore financial viability of public utility companies, strengthen regulatory framework, and establish a pricing policy aligned with social welfare objectives. - Mining sector: - Reforms aim to increase transparency and strengthen the legal framework applicable to private investors. - Fisheries and aquaculture (2006 priorities): - Finalization of the Letter of Development Policy on Fisheries and Aquaculture and continued reorganization of the Ministry. - Intensification of surveillance and efforts to combat illegal fishing. - Increase in the number of research programs from 2 to 3. - Tourism and handicrafts (2006 goals): - Improve institutional framework by preparing a Code of Tourism to incentivize private investment. - Conduct studies for creation of a Pilot Artisans’ Center, crafts villages, and a bamboo center. - Enhance technical and professional capacities of stakeholders; strengthen partnerships for construction of tourist encampments. - Urban development and housing programs to be implemented within the framework of specified national and regional programs, including PNADH, PNAT, Integrated Koba Tatéma-Bamako Subregional Development Program, Urban Technical Support Program, Integrated Development Program for Mining Regions of Guinea, and Technical Study and Development Program for the Koloma Plateau. ### Security sector plans (2006) - Institutional framework improvements. - Recruitment and capacity building of police officers: 315 additional officers to increase civil security staff. - Enhancement of facilities and infrastructures at the police academy in Boffa. - Construction of 10 urban police commissariats in Conakry. - Renovation of the central commissariats in Conakry and Dubréka. - Second phase of construction of the DGPN in Coléah. ### Outlook: macroeconomic and reform priorities (2006) - Accelerating economic growth is a central government concern. - Key objectives for efforts in 2006: - (i) Strengthening of governance and anti-corruption efforts, including strengthening ANLC and promulgation of new laws to combat corruption and money-laundering. - (ii) Expansion of the government divestiture program. - (iii) Intensification of the structural reform program. - (iv) Consolidation and strengthening of macroeconomic policies to ensure sustained macroeconomic stability. ### Summary: PRSP objectives and targets - PRSP adopted by the Government in January 2002; endorsed by the IMF and World Bank in July 2002. - Overall objective: reduce poverty significantly and sustainably by boosting incomes and improving well-being, particularly of the most vulnerable. - Specific objectives: - Medium term (2002-2005): - Achieve average annual GDP growth of 5.2 percent in real terms between 2002 and 2005. - Boost the average annual per capita GDP growth rate to 1.9 percent between 2002 and 2005. - Long term (2010): - Reduce the incidence of monetary poverty at the national level from [text ends]. *Content extracted from the supplied IMF PDF section.* ### 62.6 percent in 1994/95 to 30 percent by 2010, and the incidence in ### _cr07140 - 62.6 percent in 1994/95 to 30 percent by 2010, and the incidence in ### PRS medium-term goals and targets - Reduce national poverty incidence from 62.6 percent in 1994/95 to 30 percent by 2010, and rural incidence from 82.1 percent to 38 percent over the same period. - Increase the gross primary enrollment ratio (GER) from 56.7 percent in 1999/00 to 100 percent by 2012 and increase the GER for girls from 44.3 percent to 100 percent over the same period. - Reduce the infant mortality rate from 98 per thousand in 1999 to 70 per thousand in 2005 and 50 per thousand by 2010. - Increase the rate of access to safe water from 49 percent in 1999 to 80 percent in 2005 and 100 percent in 2010. ### Strategic pillars for achieving goals - Acceleration of economic growth, with ample income-earning opportunities for the poor; - Expansion of basic social services and of equitable access to them; - Improved governance and strengthening of institutional and human capacities. ### 2005 implementation context and constraints - Macroeconomic environment: - High inflation: 29.7 percent year-on-year in 2005. - Money supply reached 17.1 percent of GDP, compared to an objective of 15.6 percent. - Steep depreciation of the Guinean franc (see depreciation figures below). - Development financing: scarcity of external financial assistance and decline in bilateral and multilateral Public Aid for Development (PAD). - Prices of staple goods: rice at GNF 2,472/kilo in December 2005, a 37 percent increase over 2004; potatoes at GNF 1,507/kilo in December 2005, a 33 percent increase over 2004. - Infrastructure shortages: routine shortages in water and power delivery negatively impacting SME/SMI activities and wealth- and job-creation opportunities. - Humanitarian and migration pressures: - Presence of over 63,264 other refugees (51,428 Liberians and 5,121 Sierra Leoneans). - Repatriation of 1,416 Guineans living illegally abroad and 107,719 others from Côte d’Ivoire. - Political developments: - Creation of the National Electoral Commission (Commission Electorale Nationale Autonome, CENA) and organization of municipal and community-level elections. - Opposition obtained 7 of 38 municipalities (18 percent) and 62 out of 303 CRDs (20 percent). ### IMF staff-monitored program (April 2005–March 2006): quantitative objectives - 1. Real GDP growth of 3 percent in 2005; - 2. Targeting a year-on-year inflation rate of 28 percent in 2005; - 3. Targeting of the GNF/USD exchange rate to 3,200; - 4. Reduction of the current account deficit from 5.5 percent of GDP in 2004 to 3.8 percent in 2005; - 5. Improvement of the overall balance, from a deficit of 2.5 percent of GDP in 2004 to a surplus of 0.1 percent of GDP in 2005; - 6. Increase in gross foreign exchange reserves from the equivalent of 0.8 months of imports to 1.3 months of imports during 2005; - 7. Maintenance of the overall public financing deficit (cash basis) at 1 percent of GDP during the first half of 2005; - 8. Holding monetary expansion at 32.1 percent by end 2005; - 9. Reaching a primary surplus of 0.5 percent of GDP in 2005. ### Macro outcomes and evaluation (2005) - Overall growth: - Economic growth rate reached 3.3 percent in 2005, compared to 2.7 percent in 2004. - Average real GDP growth rate of 2.9 percent per annum over 2002–2005 (below PRSP projected 5.2 percent). - Per capita GDP: - Average per capita GDP growth per annum was -0.3 percent (target was 1.9 percent). - Per capita growth: 1.1 percent in 2002; -1.8 percent in 2003; -0.4 percent in 2004; 0.1 percent in 2005. - Achievement: all quantitative objectives of the staff-monitored program were achieved. ### Sectoral performance (2002–2005 highlights) - Primary sector: - GDP growth in primary sector: 2.8 percent in 2005 versus 3.3 percent in 2004 (drop of 0.5 percentage points). - Subsector changes: livestock 2.7 percent in 2004 to 2.6 percent in 2005; fisheries 2.4 percent to 1.6 percent; sylviculture/forestry 3.2 percent to 2.5 percent. - Secondary sector: - Sector growth: 2.9 percent in 2004 and 4.1 percent in 2005. - Subsector details: - Manufacturing: 3.0 percent in 2004 to 1.5 percent in 2005; - Mining: 1.1 percent in 2004 to 3.6 percent in 2005; - Water and electricity: 0.9 percent in 2004 to 1.0 percent in 2005; - Construction and public works: 6 percent in both 2004 and 2005. - Note: Difficulties with water and electricity delivery hamper SME/SMI development and the business climate. - Tertiary sector: - Sector growth: 2.6 percent in 2004 to 1.4 percent in 2005 (decline of 1.2 percentage points). - Subsector growth: - Trade: 2.8 percent in 2004 to 1.2 percent in 2005; - Transportation: 1.6 percent to 1.3 percent; - Administration: 2.5 percent to 1.0 percent; - Other services: 2.5 percent to 2.2 percent. - Value-added (financial resources, 2004): - Construction/public works: GNF 37 billion; - Mining: GNF 18 billion. ### Fiscal outcomes (public finances trends, 2003–2005, as % of GDP) - Revenue and grants: 13.7 (2003), 11.4 (2004), 14.4 (2005) - Revenue: 10.4 (2003), 10.5 (2004), 13.2 (2005) - Grants (of which HIPC): 3.2 (2003) / 0.9 (2004) / 1.0 (2005) - HIPC: 0.5 (2003), 0.2 (2004), 0.8 (2005) — note: table formatting shows interrelated entries; final text states HIPC as percentage fell from 0.5 percent to 0.2 percent between 2004 and 2005. - Total expenditures: 18.8 (2003), 16.2 (2004), 14.4 (2005) - Current expenditures: 12.8 (2003), 11.4 (2004), 10.3 (2005) - Investments: 5.4 (2003), 5.0 (2004), 4.2 (2005) - Debt service: 3.4 (2003), 5.4 (2004), 3.4 (2005) - Overall fiscal balance (excluding grants): -7.9 (2003), -5.9 (2004), -1.4 (2005) - Explanatory factors for improved revenues: - Increase in non-mining revenues due to strict enforcement of structural measures and new customs tariff based on WAEMU’s Common External Tariff (CET). - Government revenues represented 13.1 percent of GDP (increase of 2.6 percentage points over 2004). - Grants fell from 1.0 percent of GDP in 2004 to 0.8 percent of GDP in 2005. - Funds mobilized under the HIPC Initiative fell from 0.5 percent to 0.2 percent of GDP over the same period. ### Monetary aggregates and foreign reserves (2005) - Reserve money: - 2005 forecast: GNF 959.6 billion; - 2005 performance: GNF 954.3 billion; - Discrepancy: GNF -5.3 billion. - Foreign assets of BCRG: - 2005 forecast: USD 3.2 million; - 2005 performance: USD 5.1 million; - Discrepancy: USD +2.9 million. - Broad money: - 2005 forecast: GNF 1,855.7 billion; - 2005 performance: GNF 2,036.8 billion; - Discrepancy: GNF 181.1 billion. - Credit to private sector: - 2005 forecast: GNF 617.3 billion; - 2005 performance: GNF 699.6 billion; - Discrepancy: GNF 82 .3 billion. - Foreign assets of commercial banks: - 2005 forecast: GNF 173.1 billion; - 2005 performance: GNF 277.5 billion; - Discrepancy: GNF 104.4 billion. - Foreign exchange reserves: 1.1 months of imports in 2005 (PRSP-defined goal: 6 months). ### Monetary effects and price/ exchange developments - Money supply increase to 17.1 percent of GDP (target 15.6 percent) contributed to: - Steep depreciation of the Guinean franc at the official average rate: - USD: GNF 3,646.59 in December 2005 compared to GNF 2,466.67 in December 2004 (depreciation of 47.8 percent). - Euro: from GNF 3,099.44:1 in 2004 to GNF 4,505.79:1 in 2005 (depreciation relative to the Euro of 45.4 percent). - Increased lending to the private sector: GNF 82.3 billion over 2004. - Greater-than-expected increase in external assets of commercial banks: GNF 104.4 billion for 2005. - Year-on-year inflation rate of 29.7 percent in 2005. *Source: _cr07140 - 62.6 percent in 1994/95 to 30 percent by 2010, and the incidence in — https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2007/_cr07140.pdf* ### 27.6 percent in 2004. ### _cr07140 - 27.6 percent in 2004. ### Inflation and Poverty - Inflation "has reached worrisome levels" and is "responsible for the substantial decline in consumers’ purchasing power and is aggravating the level and extent of poverty." - Poverty prevalence: - "53.6 percent of the population was living below the poverty threshold in 2005" - "50.1 percent in 2004" - "49.2 percent in 2002" - "a deterioration of 4.4 percent over four years." - World Bank–based calculation: - "average growth discrepancy (2.3 percent) observed over the 2002-2005 period" - "poverty/growth elasticity rate of -1.19 percent" - implied increase in poverty: "2.74 percent" (calculated by multiplying 1.19 by 2.3%) - Demographic pressure: "population growth (3.1 percent) is outstripping average economic growth." ### Privatization and Government Divestiture - Objective: "Government disengagement from industrial and commercial activities ... aimed at promoting development of the private sector." - Sale approach: gradual sale of government-owned enterprise assets and shares ("in proportions ranging from 10 percent to 100 percent"), based on transferability and strategic importance. - Completed 2005 transactions and receipts: - Sale of SIPL real estate assets brought the Government "GNF 1.3 billion." - Sale of other company assets, including SIPECO, brought "GNF 257.3 million." - Out of a revenue forecast of "GNF 14.6 billion" budgeted for 2005 ("i.e., 0.12 percent of GDP"), the Privatization Unit mobilized "GNF 14.2 billion" — "a realization rate of about 97 percent." - Social mitigation: with World Bank help (social fund under CAS IV), "benefit and retirement contributions were paid for 1,782 dismissed workers" from named enterprises, protecting them from economic insecurity. - Table 3 (sale of assets and shares, 2005) — selected entries (preserve values as presented): - BICIGUI: Govt. share 38% -> share % transferred 23% -> Remaining share 15% -> Encashed value "GNF 13 billion" - BPMG: Govt. share 41,66% -> share % transferred 21,66% -> Remaining share 20%; negotiated reduction noted - UGAR: Govt. share 18% -> share % transferred 8% -> Remaining share 10%; "Reconciliation of past operations prior to sale of shares." - SOMCAG: Govt. share 34% -> share % transferred 20% -> Remaining share 10%; "Sale not carried out." - SOGUIRUSSE: Govt. share 15% -> share % transferred 15% -> Remaining share 0%; "Sale did not occur due to legal liquidation of the company." - SOPRAG: Govt. share 10% -> share % transferred 10% -> Remaining share 0%; "Company has been inactive ... liquidation is envisaged." - SOPROCHIM: Govt. share 33% -> share % transferred 33% -> Remaining share 0%; "Resumption of operation ... prior to sale of shares." ### Public Investment and Priority Sectors (2002–2005) - Share of investment expenditures in priority sectors (NDB): - 2002: "50.5" - 2003: "49.1" - 2004: "73.0" - 2005: "58.6" - Sector shares in 2002–2005 (percentages reported per year): - Agriculture, Forestry and Livestock: "25.6", "24.7", "20.0", "20.4" - Fisheries and Aquaculture: "1.2", "2.3", "1.8", "3.5" - Public works: "3.1", "6.8", "17.0", "9.9" - Urban development and Housing: "2.3", "4.2", "25.3", "4.5" - Public heath: "4.5", "3.4", "1.7", "5.6" - Education: "12.6", "6.6", "5.8", "13.5" - Social welfare: "1.2", "1.0", "1.5", "1.5" - Observations: - "The share of investment expenditures accounted for by the priority sectors in the NDB was 58.6 percent in 2005, a decrease relative to the 2004 level of 73 percent." - Social sectors increased: Education from "5.8 percent in 2004" to "13.5 percent of the NDB in 2005"; Health from "1.7 percent in 2004" to "5.6 percent in 2005." - Causes of 2005 decline in priority-sector allocations: poor MTEF unit management, weak monitoring, and "drastic decline in budgetary aid." - Reform: introduction of a program budget approach in 2005; a training workshop in June 2005; selection of six ministerial departments to pilot the approach. ### Public Expenditure Management Improvements (measures taken in 2005) - Establishment of a strict budget accompanied by a restrictive monetary policy. - Further reform in public enterprise sectors: water, power, and telecommunications. - Improved governance and intensified anti-corruption efforts via structural measures on public expenditures and justice administration. - Strengthening institutional and human capacities for oversight and audits. - Development of economic and social infrastructures to improve the business climate. ### Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework (2006–2008) - Primary macroeconomic objectives: - "Average annual GDP growth rate, in real terms, of 5.5 percent;" - "Reduction of inflation from the annual average of 24 percent in 2006 to 6 percent in 2008;" - "Increase in the foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank from the equivalent of 1.5 months of imports in 2006 to 2.3 months by 2008;" - "Limiting of the budget deficit (excluding grants) to 0.3 percent of GDP in 2006, and realization of a positive overall budget balance, grants excluded, from 2007 onward;" - "Increasing the tax ratio from 13.8 percent in 2006 to 14.8 percent in 2008 and limiting total expenditures relative to GDP to around 14.5 percent during 2007;" - "Limiting expansion of the money supply to restrain inflationary pressures." - Policy context: adherence in 2005 to restrictive budgetary and monetary policies, unification and liberalization of the foreign exchange market, commitments to transparency in mining, improved governance in public finance, banking oversight, anti-corruption, plans to enhance water and power distribution, and privatization. ### Agriculture, Livestock, Water and Forestry — Performance and Constraints - Objectives under LPDA1: increased food crop production, greater agricultural competitiveness, higher rural incomes; access for export crops to subregional and international markets; rational management of natural resources. - Notable 2005 production increases (Table 5 data as presented): - Rice: "900,000 metric tons in 2004" -> "972,000 metric tons in 2005", "an increase of 8 percent." (2003: "845") - Fonio: "188" (2003) "1996%" "219" "10%" — (table formatting preserved as in source) - Maize: "389" (2003) "423" "9%" "465" "10%" - Unshelled groundnuts: "157" (2003) "1687%" "183" "9%" - (Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry) - Rice import changes: imports fell from "333,236 metric tons in 2004" to "282,298 metric tons in 2005." - Dependency: imports "offset 28 percent of the food supply deficit overall, and 25 percent of the rice deficit." - Agricultural GDP growth: "low rate of agricultural GDP growth (3.3 percent in 2005 compared to an annual average of 10 percent forecast in the PRSP)." - Sector contribution to GDP: "about 25.2 percent to national GDP formation." - Constraints limiting sector performance: - Problems transporting harvests to urban centers; - Poor promotion of products; - Lack of selected seed; - Low level of foreign investment and lack of crucial infrastructures; - Irregular rainfall; - Low productivity of local animal breeds/varieties; - Poor fodder quality during the dry season; - Lack of competitiveness and difficulty accessing international markets. ### Fisheries and Aquaculture — Results, Targets, and Constraints - Sector objectives include development of coastal and inland fishing villages, sustainable rural fish farming, sustainability of ocean and freshwater fisheries, and development of national fishing industry meeting international quality standards. - PRSP consumption target: increase per capita fish consumption from "13 kilograms per year to 17 kilograms per year by 2010." - 2005 research and resource assessment: - Two research campaigns: assessment of demersal fish stocks; observation of cetaceans supporting Guinea’s position within the International Whaling Commission — "observations in our waters of 1,567 individuals and the identification of 5 different species of cetacean." - Preparation of a strategic plan for fisheries research and a national plan for ray and shark conservation. - Study identifying new fisheries (e.g., crabbing); creation of a Scientific Committee at CNSHB. - Aquaculture and community results: - Training and installation: "Training of 533 fish farmers operating 482 ponds for production of about 35 metric tons/year." - Inland fisheries: support to "179 fish farmers" (103 producing, 76 setting up) in "24 villages"; identification of "90 new candidates," 52 with prospective sites examined; "operating 101 open dams and 28 closed dams" totaling "33.24 hectares"; "124 ponds under construction for a total surface area of 25.68 hectares." - Credit and funds: establishment of a credit for artisanal fishermen (USD "112,500"); establishment of fund of "USD 500,000, 39 million for women." - Microcredit allocations: "GNF 39 million to women" fish smokers; "GNF 238.10 million to fishermen" for nets and motors. - Infrastructure: completion of Kenyen fish market; provision of depots and markets for women wholesalers; preparatory work for Siguiri and Mandiana markets. - Coastal surveillance: "341 ocean surveillance missions" leading to boarding of "eighteen (18) vessels" committing fishing infractions, reducing illegal deep-water fishing. - 2005 landings: "61,000 metric tons of frozen fish, 40,000 metric tons of fresh fish, and 8,000 metric tons of river-caught fish" — "well below the requirements of the population." - Sector GDP growth: "fell from 2.4 percent in 2004 to 1.6 percent in 2005, i.e., a loss of" (text ends). - Constraints identified: - Inadequate equipment for fisheries surveillance; - Inadequate reception, processing and storage facilities; - Lack of suitable credit arrangements; - Weak infrastructure in industrial fishing limiting value-added; - Scarcity of funding as the main obstacle to sector development. *Source: _cr07140 - 27.6 percent in 2004.* ### 0.8 percentage points. ### _cr07140 - 0.8 percentage points. ### Fisheries and income outcomes - The objectives set for 2005 were fully achieved in terms of income. - Forecast revenues of GNF 21 billion were earned and deposited in the public treasury. - Recovery measures carried out in 2005 produced the bottom-line result reported. - Fisheries development could add value to the economy and contribute to poverty reduction if constraints are removed. - Over 80 percent of the poor are living in rural areas in the interior of the country or on the coast; investment in the rural economy can create jobs and increase incomes. ### Mining and Geology — objectives, performance, and projects - Sector objective: accelerate economic growth by exploiting the country’s mining potential. - Annual growth rate of the sector: 3 (PRSP indicator), 2.7% (en 2003), 1.1% (2004), 3.6% (2005). - Number of titles issued per year: - 2002-2003: 65 mining titles, of which 50 prospecting permits and 15 mining reconnaissance permits - 2004: 81 mining titles, of which 73 prospecting permits; 2 concession permits and 6 mining reconnaissance permits - 2005: 248 prospecting permits - Rate of processing of raw materials into semi-finished or finished products: 4.4% (2003); n.d. (2004); n.d. (2005). - Contribution to community development: USD 1,840,000 (2003); USD 1,546,800 (2004); n.d. (2005). - For exploitation efforts, 602 national operators and 475 foreigners contacted the Mining Promotion Center (CPDM) to carry out prospecting and resource valorization activities (bauxite, iron, gold, diamonds, etc.). - Government joined the Extract Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI); pledged to prepare two reports on payments and revenues in the mining sector: - First report (unaudited revenue figures) to be published in June 2006. - Second report (audited income figures) due in September 2006. - Permit issuance: 81 permits for 2004 and 248 for 2005, an increase of over 310 percent. - Major implemented or planned megaprojects: Sangarédi Aluminum Plant Project (amendment to the Global Alumina Agreement signed and ratified), Kamsar Aluminum Plant Project (basic agreement signed with partners of ALCOA/ALCAN), Integrated Complex at Dian-Dian. - Medium-term role: mining sector expected to be the actual motor of growth through new installations and expansion, notably integration of the bauxite/alumina/aluminum sector, contributing greater value-added to the national economy. - Energy linkage: processing of alumina and smelting of aluminum require abundant, reliable, and cheap energy; megaprojects present an opportunity for power sector development and vice-versa. - Employment and revenue potential from megaprojects: nearly 22,000 permanent jobs and over 50,000 indirect jobs; could generate substantial revenues for the Government and rural communities. ### Tourism and Handicrafts — 2005 objectives, activities, and constraints - Tourism objectives for 2005 included: - Production of regulatory texts on game-hunting tourism and professional tourist guide practice terms. - Production of a geographic atlas on tourism in Guinea. - Partnerships with Tetarkys and Red International for construction of village-based tourist encampments, particularly in Labé and Mali. - Studies of organization of tourism activities in the bay of Sangaréah and the Dominyah tourism development project. - Participation in training workshops, conventions, fairs, and expositions on tourism. - Handicrafts 2005 activities were chiefly normative: examination and updating of enforcing legislation of the Handicrafts Code (workshop in Mamou, April), improvement of the maintenance of the Artisans’ Registry and Business Registry, functioning of the handicrafts sector. - Terms of reference drawn for feasibility studies on: - “Pilot Artisans” interventions/projects/programs, - National census of artisans, - Creation of handicrafts villages in Conakry and chief towns of administrative regions, - Child labor in the handicrafts industry, - Handicrafts practiced by women in Guinea. - Phase 1 feasibility study for the Pilot Artisans’ Center in Conakry in progress; draft report on technical/architectural studies and economic/financial analysis submitted to stakeholders including the National Federation of Guinean Artisans. - Main sector constraints: - Scarcity and very high cost of production factors, i.e., water and electricity. - Inadequate promotion abroad of Guinea as a tourism destination, and scant attendance at commercial events (e.g., fairs, expositions). - High and uncompetitive cost of air travel to Guinea, and the total absence of charter flights. - Government-planned investments to improve accessibility and viability of tourism sites have not been realized due to financial constraints. - Most tourism sites remain difficult to reach and underdeveloped, deterring national and foreign private investment. ### Basic infrastructure — Energy and Water - Energy sector objective: improve framework for economic development and population living conditions by ensuring affordable access to energy. - Reforms involving private operators need to be initiated to achieve sector objectives. - 2005 energy activities included continuation of on-site interventions in Conakry and secondary cities; completion of work required for connections to 3 thermal plants at Kankan, N’Zérékoré and Faranah; final preparation of a Master Plan for Electrification; negotiation of financing for an electrification project involving 24 localities. Master Plan presented by the Minister of Energy at a national workshop in March 2006. - Entry into production of new mining areas expected to incentivize improvements in electrical network quality and power supply. - Water subsector objective: improve living conditions and competitiveness by ensuring an adequate supply of good quality and affordable water. - SNAPE 2005 goals and activities: - 949 positive boreholes; - 16 simplified solar-powered water supply systems; - 43 large-bore wells; - 2,675 latrines; - Rehabilitation of 8 solar-powered water supply systems with HIPC financing. - Table 8 (results as of end 2005) data and summary: - Annual completions and cumulative objectives for water points show shortfalls. - In 2002: cumulative total 11,613 (annual completions 741/874/911? table formatting indicates 12,600 objective). - In 2003: cumulative total 12,271 (objective 13,400). - In 2004: cumulative total 12,562 (objective 14,200). - In 2005: objective 15,000; cumulative total reported as 12,814; annual water points developed in 2005 were 252. - SNAPE’s cumulative objective was to produce 15,000 water points in 2005; implementation rate reported as 82 percent, or 12,840 water points (table reconciliation notes cumulative total 12,814 and implementation rate 82 percent). - Number of water points developed annually by SNAPE fell from 749 in 2002 to 252 in 2005; relative to 2004, 39 fewer water points were developed in 2005. - Well construction (averaging 7 wells) has declined each year since 2002. - SNAPE conducted surveys to determine village eligibility for boreholes and initiated sanitation education campaigns on maintenance and hygienic practices. - Access to safe water indicators: - 2002/2003 EIBEP: rate of access to safe water stood at 64.3 percent in 2002, compared to 51.5 percent in 1994/95. - Disparity between urban and rural areas reported as 53 percent and 85.6 percent, respectively, in 2002. - Despite national progress, water supply conditions have deteriorated considerably in Conakry; no connection can be drawn to the PRSP indicators. - Summary assessment: Government quantitative objectives in the PRSP for hydraulics and electricity have not been fulfilled; attainment of MDGs in this sector will be compromised without urgent measures. - Main problems to resolve: - Financial viability of subsectors requires improvement in commercial returns (especially through vigorous anti-corruption efforts) and more rational management of resources. - Development and sustainability of the concept of paying for public utilities. - Strengthening of production and distribution capacities to meet population needs, including in rural areas. - Priority cooperation areas to achieve access to safe water: - Rehabilitation and expansion of the distribution network and improvement of management in the sector. - Strengthening of production capacities at all levels: large urban centers (water supply networks) and rural areas (boreholes and improved wells). ### Basic infrastructure — Transportation and Public Works - Overall objective: enhance mobility of people, goods, and services. - Government strategy aims to reenergize urban transportation by making assets of former transport company Société Générale des Transports de Guinée (SOGETRAG) available to private investors for urban and inter-city transportation; preparation of strategy to rehabilitate railroad transportation is planned. - Table 9 highlights public works completed in 2004 and 2005 versus PRSP objectives: - Rehabilitation of 1,000 kilometers of rural roads (2002–2004): 689 kilometers rehabilitated. - Maintenance of 5,750 kilometers of rural roads, including 1,250 kilometers using labor-intensive methods (2002–2003): 770 kilometers of roads maintained. - Construction of 1,600 linear meters of crossing structures (2002–2004): 320 lm on the Fatala - Boffa road. - Periodic maintenance of 3,950 kilometers of dirt roads (2002–2003): 689 kilometers maintained nationwide. - Completion of maintenance work on Doumbafè-Faranah and Sankarani-Mandiana ferries: (status implied in table). - Paving of 1,169 kilometers of roads (2002–2007): 302 kilometers paved, Kankan-Kourémalé. - Within each administrative capital: earthworks, sewer installation, resurfacing of 5 kilometers of main roads; works underway in Conakry (6.775 kilometers), Kindia (2.65 kilometers), Labé (4.75 kilometers). - Continued improvement of Tombo-Gbessia four-lane road; works underway in Conakry (6,775 kilometers) [table text uses both 6.775 and 6,775 kilometers—preserve as presented]. - Efforts focused on improvement of roads such as Conakry’s Tombo-Gbessia four-lane highway (in progress) to improve traffic flow and circulation of people and freight. ### Telecommunications - Objective: supply adequate and high-quality post and telecommunication services at competitive prices. - 2005 telecommunications activities: - Expansion of SOTELGUI’s telephone network. - Number of cities served by the GSM network increased from 21 to 22, out of a total of 33, for a service coverage rate of 67 percent. Dabola was the most recent city included. - Intercel and Spacetel cover only the city of Conakry. - InvestCom issuance of a fourth license expected to improve telephone service coverage; license obligations: - Cover all main urban areas and main road and rail arteries, in terms of territory and population, within economic/commercial feasibility limits. - Phase 1: cover all chief towns of prefectures with populations of about 100,000 during the first year following commercial opening. - Phase 2: cover all chief towns of prefectures with populations under 100,000 within two years of the end of the first phase. - Table 10 (telecommunications results, 2002-2005): - Increase in telecom service density from 0.5 in 2002 to 1 by 2004, and to 1.5 by 2010: 0.5 (2002-2003), 0.8 (2004), n.d. (2005). - Total number of subscribers to SOTELGUI’s GSM network: 90,000 (2003), 150,000 (2004), n.d. (2005). - Number of cities covered by GSM: 18 (2002-2003), 21 (2004), 22 (2005). - Main challenge: service quality offered by operators remains poor — many attempts to call end in failure and connections are sometimes poor. - Causes identified: poor management, outmoded installations, lack of trained staff, difficulties with power supply. - Government legal/regulatory action: Law L/2005/018/AN modifying provisions of Law L/92/016/CTRN of June 2, 1992 created the Autonomous Post and Telecommunications Agency (Autonome de Régulation des Postes et Télécommunications, ARPT). ### Economic performance and poverty reduction - Consensus: poverty cannot be reduced without strong and sustainable growth; PRS implementation has suffered from slow growth despite progress in macroeconomic management in 2005. - Growth rate: 2.7 percent in 2004; 3.3 percent in 2005; PRSP goal was 5 percent. - Average annual inflation rate: about 31.4 percent; year-on-year inflation as of end December 2005: 29.7 percent; PRSP overall objective: 5 percent. - Unemployment: reported as stable at 3.0 percent according to the 2002/2003 EIBEP. - Factors aggravating poverty: weakness of economic growth relative to population growth (3.1 percent), steep increase in the inflation rate, precariousness of employment, lack of water and electricity in most cities (especially Conakry). - Strategic document “Guinea: Vision 2010” target: a 30 percent poverty rate by 2010. - Estimated poverty rate: 53.6 percent in 2005, compared to 49.2 percent in 2002/2003. - Urgency: measures under the second PRSP needed to consolidate 2005 performance to achieve growth capable of significantly reducing poverty, especially in rural areas. *Source: _cr07140 - 0.8 percentage points.* ### 0.1 percent between 1994 and 2002. However, although the unemployment rate for men stayed ### _cr07140 - 0.1 percent between 1994 and 2002. However, although the unemployment rate for men stayed ### Unemployment and regional/labor findings - Overall unemployment change cited as 0.1 percent between 1994 and 2002. - Unemployment by sex: - Men: 4.6 percent (stayed the same over the period). - Women: rose from 1.7 percent to 2 percent. - Rural versus urban: - Rural areas: decreased from 0.9 percent to 0.4 percent. - Cities in the interior: increased from 6.1 percent to 6.7 percent. - Conakry: increased by 4.8 percent between 1994 and 2002 (from 10.2 percent to 15 percent). - Regional concentrations of high unemployment after Conakry (15 percent): - Lower Guinea, specifically the administrative region of Kindia: 3.3 percent. *Source: EIBEP 2002 -2003 DNS/MP/Excerpt from the final report.* ### 1-5. Outlook — Government priorities for 2006 - Immediate objectives for 2006: - Strengthening of governance and anti-corruption efforts, including: - Strengthening of the national anti-corruption agency ANLC. - Promulgation of new laws combating corruption and money laundering. - Expansion of the Government’s divestiture program. - Intensification of the structural reform program. - Consolidation and strengthening of macroeconomic policies to ensure sustained macroeconomic stability. ### Enterprise reform and privatization objectives for 2006 - Activities projected: sale of enterprise shares; projected revenues and asset sales. - Table of privatization objectives (Government share, Share to be transferred, Share remaining): - BPMG — Banking — Govt. share (%): 41.66216 — Share to be transferred (%): 20 — Share remaining (%): (not explicitly given) - UGAR — Insurance — Govt. share (%): 18 — Share to be transferred (%): 10 — Share remaining (%): 8 - SOMCAG — Petroleum — Govt. share (%): 34 — Share to be transferred (%): 20 — Share remaining (%): 10 - SOPROCHIM — Manufacturing — Govt. share (%): 33 — Share to be transferred (%): 23 — Share remaining (%): 10 - Ciments de Guinée — Manufacturing — Govt. share (%): 38 — Share to be transferred (%): 23 — Share remaining (%): 15 - SOGUILUBE — Manufacturing — Govt. share (%): 30 — Share to be transferred (%): 15 — Share remaining (%): 15 - SALGUIDIA — Manufacturing — Govt. share (%): 25 — Share to be transferred (%): 15 — Share remaining (%): 10 - Source: Privatization Unit/MEF - Financial projections and asset sales: - Revenues projected from share sales: about GNF 8 billion. - Sale of assets (movie theaters) valued together at about GNF 6.3 billion. - Reinsertion measures: - Two outreach workshops planned to train 200 workers in enterprise creation and microfinance. ### Support to sectors with growth potential — planned measures - Tourism and handicrafts: - Development of a Tourism Code to provide more incentives to private enterprises investing in the sector. - Studies for creation of a Pilot Artisans’ Center, handicrafts villages, and a bamboo center. - Strengthening technical and professional capacities of sector actors. - Strengthening partnerships for the construction of tourist encampments. - Fisheries and aquaculture — priority actions: - Finalization of the Letter of Development Policy for Fisheries and Aquaculture (LPDPA) and continuation of Ministry reorganization. - Intensification of surveillance and anti-illegal fishing activities. - Increase research campaigns from 2 to 3. - Continued development of basic infrastructures and interventions to promote fresh-water fishing and fish farming. - Completion of study on options for stocking ponds and water retention structures with fish. - Inventory and rehabilitation of the fleet of fishing canoes. - Development and implementation of a program to raise public awareness of fisheries resource status and responsible exploitation. - Improve supply of fisheries products and working conditions of fishermen. - Improve sanitary quality of fisheries products, equipment, transportation and conservation (refrigerated vehicles, cold storage), and processing facilities. - Development of basic infrastructures and support for artisanal fishing at the fishing port of Boulbinet. - Mobilization of partners for financing of the fisheries sector. - Power and water sector reforms: - Policies to reestablish financial viability of public utility companies, improve operational efficiency, strengthen regulatory framework, and set pricing policy aligned with social welfare objectives while ensuring enterprise viability. - All debts owed by public utility companies to the Government were subject of an agreement in September 2005 and a timetable for their settlement was approved. - Government envisaging a 20-percent power and water rate adjustment for large industrial consumers. - An overall pricing policy for the power and water sectors will be approved by January 2007. - World Bank assisting in electricity sector reform; a bilateral donor assisting in the water sector. - Telecommunications sector measures: - Publication of enforcing decrees and technical orders by end of December 2006. - Negotiation of operating licenses in accordance with the new regulatory framework specifying operators’ financial, contractual, and technical obligations. - Development of an action plan, to be approved in December 2006, for establishing an independent regulatory body as provided under the new Telecommunications Law (in collaboration with development partners). - Mining sector reforms: - Aim to enhance transparency and strengthen legal framework for private investors. - Development of a new standard investment agreement with World Bank help; expected approval by decree in September 2006 (structural benchmark for the PRGF). - Review of the Mining Code to adapt to new sector requirements, including elements of the new standard agreement. ### PART 2: Development and access to basic social services — overview - PRSP second theme: achieve equitable health care, address HIV/AIDS, education for all, protection and promotion of vulnerable groups (women, children, elderly, handicapped), and access to secure land tenure and decent housing. ### 2-1. Health sector — objectives and 2005 execution highlights - Sector objective: improve health status of the population through prevention/treatment of priority diseases; improved access for the poor to essential services; combat nutritional deficiencies. - Rehabilitation and equipment upgrades: - Planned rehabilitation of hospitals at Gaoual, Koundara, Boké, Yomou, NZérékoré, and Mandiana. - Commencement of works with EU and AfDB financing in all locations except Gaoual. - Specific rehabilitations underway: Buruli Ulcer Treatment Center at NZérékoré; Health Centers at Fello Koundoua, Kouratongo (Tougué), and Yimbaya (Ratoma); teacher housing center at Rural Health Training Center in Maférinyah; In-Service Training Center at Donka; central maternity clinic in Koundara. - Eleven conventional x-ray and sonogram machines installed in hospitals of Dubréka, Kindia, Boké, Télémilé, Mali, Kankan, Siguiri, Labé, Dinguiraye, Ignace Deen, and Donka. - Pharmaceutical availability and health services constraints: - Drugs out of stock due to currency devaluation, poor supply chain performance, inappropriate pricing practices, exorbitant service costs, lack of professionalism in CHUs, non-functioning centers due to lack of funding, and breakdown of two generators. - Professional ethics and capacity building: - Training and outreach workshops in Conakry for professional associations of pharmacists and physicians. - Mobilization and use of funds: - Revision of national pharmaceutical policy to formulate new drug supply strategy and pricing policy. - Signature of a credit agreement on September 29, 2005 with the World Bank for financing APNDS to reduce maternal and child mortality in 18 prefectures (listed). - Discussions with World Bank on development of a health care financing policy to establish risk-sharing mechanisms. - Human resources deployment: - 674 recruited employees assigned to the interior, with priority to poor prefectures. - Health information systems: - Preparation of a statistical yearbook for 2004 and updating SNIS with new indicators for HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis (in progress). - Vaccination and immunization performance (2004 to 2005 improvements): - DTCP3 vaccination coverage improved from 63 percent to 89 percent between 2004 and 2005. - 30 out of 33 prefectures had DTCP3 vaccination rate exceeding 80 percent; 8 prefectures had coverage below 80 percent. - VAR antigen vaccination: from 60 percent to 82 percent between 2004 and 2005. - VAA antigen vaccination: from 77 percent to 84 percent between 2004 and 2005. - At Faranah, vaccination rate of 87 percent for both antigens achieved. - VAT2+ vaccination coverage: from 69 percent in 2004 to 75 percent in 2005. - Regional lowest VAT2+ coverage: Mamou 56 percent, Labé 60.4 percent, relative to goal of 80 percent. - Table 12 (Vaccination coverage rates by antigen, 2002 - 2005) — Rate of coverage (%) 2002 2003 2004 2005: - BCG: 71 83 71 - (values presented as columns; source: EPV Directorate/MSP) - DTCP3: 58 65 63 89 - VAR: 61 70 60 82 - VAA: 17 33 77 84 - VAT-2+: 53 56 69 75 - Service delivery and infrastructure outcomes: - Vaccination of 2,257,963 children and 478,495 women against measles and polio. - Provision of generators (40 KVA power) to Regional Directorates of Kindia and N’Zérékoré. - Development of a road map for reduction of maternal and neonatal mortality; organization of a week-long seminar on reproductive health. - Increase in integrated health posts from 604 to 623 over 2004-2005 (about 3 percent increase). - Increase in integrated health centers from 395 to 399 over 2004-2005 (4 percent increase). - Child mortality and malnutrition indicators: - Infant mortality rate: declined from 98 per thousand to 91 per thousand between 1999 and 2005. - Child mortality rate: declined from 88 per thousand to 79 per thousand between 1999 and 2005. - Infant/child mortality combined: declined from 177 per thousand to 163 per thousand between 1999 and 2005. - Desired infant mortality target: 70 per thousand (current rates still short of this goal). - Malnutrition among children under 5: - 26 percent suffered growth delays in 2005, compared to 23 percent in 1999. - 35 percent of children are underweight in 2005, compared to 26 percent in 1999. - HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment (2005): - Of 5,002 women tested, 1,550 were placed under antiretroviral treatment; 1,295 of them received free ARV treatment. - Purchases: seven (7) fluoroscopic microscopes and three (3) CD4 counters. - Rehabilitation: seven (7) voluntary screening centers and six (6) ambulatory treatment centers rehabilitated in Matam, Donka, Mamou, Labé, Faranah, and Guéckédou. - Renovation: four (4) regional blood transfusion centers in Labé, Kindia, Kankan, and NZérékoré. - Distribution: 100,000 mosquito nets. - Care coverage for orphans: 7,800 AIDS orphans, including 1,078 girls, were given care coverage. - National HIV/AIDS prevalence rates: - Overall national prevalence: 1.5 percent. - Women: 1.9 percent. - Men: 0.9 percent. - Regional seroprevalence (2005) — Seroprevalence rate in 2005 (%) Region — Men — Women: - Boké: 0.8 — 1.4 - Conakry: 0.6 — 3.4 - Faranah: 1.1 — 2.0 - Kankan: 1.3 — 1.2 - Kindia: 0.9 — 1.0 - Labé: 2.1 — 1.7 - Mamou: 0.0 — 1.1 - NZérékoré: 0.9 — 2.2 - Overall: 0.9 — 1.9 - Noted health sector constraints and problems: - Underequipment of hospitals and health centers (lack of x-ray machines, reanimation devices, sonograms, etc.). - Unavailability of drugs due to fluctuating supply capacities and rising cost, making drugs unaffordable. - High cost of health care services in hospital facilities, particularly in private sector, relative to financial capacities of most of the population. - Unfair competition from the informal sector in supply and sale of pharmaceutical products; fraudulent imports accounting for about 45 percent of the pharmaceutical market. - Inappropriate cost recovery system failing to cover population’s health care requirements. - Low level of current Government expenditures in the health sector and low recovery of Guinean counterpart funds in implementation of health projects. ### 2-2. Education sector — objectives and performance - Education objectives: ensure broad access to basic education; improve access and equity at all levels; improve quality and efficacy of teaching; enhance non-formal education for girls and disadvantaged adults. - Gross primary enrollment ratio (GPER): - 2004: 77 percent. - 2005: 79 percent. - Girl GPER: 2005 = 73 percent. - Observation: at current pace, MDGs in education likely to be achieved by 2012. - Regional variations: - N’Zérékoré GPER: 66 percent. - Conakry GPER: 127 percent. - Faranah (interior): 82 percent (exceeds national average). - Grade repetition and entry exam: - Repetition rate at entry into 7th year: from 28 percent in 2004 to about 35 percent in 2005. - Faranah repetition at 7th year entrance: 48 percent. - Girl/boy ratios: - Primary level: improved from 0.76 to 0.79 from 2004 to 2005. - Secondary level: ranges from 0.47 to 0.49. - Access rate: - National overall access rate: 73.3 percent. - Urban: nearly 89 percent in Conakry and 87 percent in other cities in the interior. - Rural: 67.4 percent. - Lowest regional access rates: Mamou 50.6 percent, Labé 59.3 percent, Boké 70 percent. - Faranah access rate: 71 percent (below national average). - Infrastructure and teachers: - Classrooms: 25,863 in 2004; 27,018 in 2005 for 6,429 schools (1,115 new classrooms built). - Teachers: 26,897 total; 6,540 women. - Education sector indicators table (PRSP indicators — Performance 2004 — Performance 2005): - Overall gross enrollment ratio of 100% by 2012: 77% — 79% - Gross enrollment ratio for girls: 70% — 73% - Girl/boy ratio at the primary level (ensure gender equity): 0.76 — 0.79 - Girl/boy ratio at the secondary level (ensure gender equity): 0.47 — 0.49 - Overall rate of middle school admission: 72% — 64.8% - Girls’ rate of middle school admission: 69% — 60.7% - Source: Statistics and Planning Department (SSP)/MEPUEC - Government funding and expenditures (development funding efforts): - Government current expenditures (overall): from GNF 671.76 billion in 2004 to GNF 1,221.49 billion in 2005. - Education expenditures (partial line cut off in source; final figure not provided in supplied content). *Italic source: Excerpt from the IMF staff report content unit _cr07140 (EIBEP 2002 -2003 DNS/MP/Excerpt and PRSP sections as provided).* ### 197.92 billion. Although current expenditures for education are increasing ### _cr07140 - 197.92 billion. Although current expenditures for education are increasing ### Education expenditures (2002-2005) - Current expenditure, education: - 2002: 135.81 GNF billion; 2.15 percent of GDP - 2003: 148.80 GNF billion; 2.24 percent of GDP - 2004: 165.46 GNF billion; 2.37 percent of GDP - 2005: 197.92 GNF billion; 1.70 percent of GDP - Current Government expenditure: - 2002: 588.21 GNF billion; 9.30 percent of GDP - 2003: 613.30 GNF billion; 9.30 percent of GDP - 2004: 671.76 GNF billion; 9.6 percent of GDP - 2005: 1,221.49 GNF billion; 10.21 percent of GDP - GDP (levels): - 2002: 6,325 GNF billion; 100 percent - 2003: 6,644.43 GNF billion; 100 percent - 2004: 6,979.98 GNF billion; 100 percent - 2005: 11,954.00 GNF billion; 100 percent - Key finding: Although current expenditures for education are increasing as a percentage of GDP, they only account for 1.7 percent of such expenditures in 2005. This share is low compared to the Sub-Saharan African average, which stands at about 4 percent. ### Intrasectoral distribution of the education budget (2002-2005) - Pre-University: - 2002: 93.0 GNF billion; 68.5 percent - 2003: 99.9 GNF billion; 67.1 percent - 2004: 111.4 GNF billion; 67.3 percent - 2005: 125.16 GNF billion; 63.2 percent - Technical and Vocational: - 2002: 11.8 GNF billion; 8.7 percent - 2003: 12.4 GNF billion; 8.3 percent - 2004: 14.0 GNF billion; 8.4 percent - 2005: 12.29 GNF billion; 6.2 percent - Higher Education: - 2002: 30.9 GNF billion; 22.8 percent - 2003: 36.5 GNF billion; 24.5 percent - 2004: 40.1 GNF billion; 24.2 percent - 2005: 60.49 GNF billion; 30.6 percent - Total current expenditure, education: - 2002: 135.8 GNF billion; 100 percent - 2003: 148.8 GNF billion; 100 percent - 2004: 165.5 GNF billion; 100.0 percent - 2005: 197.92 GNF billion; 100.0 percent - Key finding: Only the Department of Higher Education received an increase in its allocation in 2005. ### Technical and vocational education - Performance: current expenditures declined by 8.4 percent in 2004 and by 6.2 percent in 2005. - Policy gap: current share for technical and vocational training is significantly below the 8 percent goal set by the EFA program. ### Higher education - Share of current expenditures rose from 24.2 percent in 2004 to 30.6 percent in 2005. - Recommendation: Consolidate achievement through policy reforms on awarding of scholarships and optimization of teaching staff resources. ### Primary and secondary education - Volumetric change: expenditures increased by GNF 13.76 billion (absolute increase). - Relative change: share fell by 4 points compared to 2004. - Context: Transition rate from primary to secondary improved from 50 percent to 70 percent over the 2002-2004 period. - Risk: Inadequate expenditures may cause operating conditions of establishments to deteriorate. ### Urban planning, housing, and sanitation (sector objectives and 2005 activities) - Sector objectives: - Sewer installation in residential areas and environmental protection. - Access to adequate housing and related services. - Reduction of regional disparities and underequipment at the regional level. - 2005 programs: activities within World Bank-supported Third Urban Development Project and Third Water and Sanitation Project (sanitation component). - Institutional: Ministry reorganized (D/2003/015/PRG/SGG of March 24, 2004); creation of decentralized Technical Departments in Conakry, Kindia, Kankan, Labé, and N’Zérékoré. - Table 17 highlights (2004 vs 2005 performance): - Low-cost housing sites: - 2004: Completion of development of 250 hectares in Sonfonia for 2,500 parcels; Marketing of parcels in 150 hectares; Technical studies for 200-hectare perimeter in Kéitayah. - 2005: Development of 200-hectare perimeter in Kéitayah for 1,800 parcels. - Sanitation works: - 2004: Continuation of sanitation works in Kaloum, Dixinn, Matam, and Ratoma. - 2005: Completion and reception of 2,535 autonomous sanitation works in 520 households; completion of 60 public latrines; completion and reception of composting sewage treatment station at Sonfonia (capacity: 50 m3/day); natural sedimentation station at Yimbaya (capacity: 100 m3/day); completion and reception of 5 mini treatment stations (intermittent filtration, total capacity of 300 m3/day) at Dixinn (University, Donka CHU and three teachers’ housing blocks). - Roads: - 2004: Construction of 70 kilometers of paved roads in Conakry; 15 kilometers in Kindia and Dubréka; 4 kilometers in Kankan, Kindia, Labé and Kissidougou. - 2005 rehabilitation and paving progress: - 42.70 kilometers in Conakry and Dubréka, 50 percent completed; - 19.5 kilometers on the Corniche Sud and in Kipé, projected to take 15 months, 75% completed; - 13 kilometers in Kindia, projected to take 12 months, 89% completed; - Topographic work and road opening in Guéckédou, 90% completed; - Signing of contracts for construction of offices and housing for police, gendarmerie, and customs departments. ### Social safety net, promotion of women and children (2005 results) - Capacity building: - Updating of the national policy on promotion of women. - Training of officers of the National Directorate for the Promotion of Women in management and public administration and project management. - Training and equipment of male and female outreach workers of CAAF and NAFA Centers in Kaloum, Fria, Labé, and Lélouma in family life and birth control. - AfDB-financed PAAEF outcomes: - 19 Associations de Service Financier (ASF) established in Dabola, Dinguiraye, Faranah, Kankan, Kouroussa, Kérouané, and Mandiana. - Mobilized 101,793 investment shares; mobilized capital valued in real terms at GNF 101.8 million; obtained credit totaling GNF 331.4 million. - Women’s Literacy Program: - Nationwide three-year program targeting 300,000 women; courses began in partnership with the Ministry of Pre-University and Civic Education and with help from the World Bank. - Legal and rights progress: - Adoption by the National Assembly of the Women’s Rights Protocol of the African Charter on Human Rights; dissemination of regional and international instruments for protection and promotion of equal rights and gender equity. - Health/HIV/AIDS: - Workshop preparing a national strategy and strategic action plan to combat feminization of HIV/AIDS and mother-to-child transmission. - Major challenges for women identified: - The troubling extent of illiteracy, the feminization of poverty and the spread of HIV/AIDS among women; - Persistence of gender inequality due to cultural practices and sociocultural traditions; - Lack of acknowledgement of gender issues by decision-makers and communities; - Small percentage of women in decision-making bodies and positions at all levels, and the high maternal mortality rate. - Social promotion and protections outputs: - Draft Law for the Promotion and Protection of the Handicapped. - Study of the status of the family in Guinea financed by UNPFA; first draft submitted. - Positive assessment in Lorombo of social reinsertion of 97 residents of the Cité de Solidarité. - 315 case consultations at the National Orthopedic Center; production of 123 orthopedic devices. - Child protection: - Sexual violence, juvenile delinquency and HIV/AIDS initiatives; coordination of a workshop in Dakar in November 2005. - Under EFA program, 70 Community Outreach Centers (Centres d'Encadrement Communautaires, CEC) being built in Télimélé, Dabola, Mamou, Kouroussa, and Mandiana. - Social security (CNSS): - Government examined actuarial assessment report in April 2005 to consider measures to: - Raise the floor and ceiling salary levels subject to withholding; - Raise the retirement age; - Improve registration and coverage of contribution; - Clarify financial relationship between CNSS and Government. - CNSS developments in 2005: adoption of Personnel Statutes and Internal Regulations. - Need: reorganization of financial relationship between Government and CNSS through settlement of debt owed by the Government. - Debt owed by Government to CNSS: a little over GNF 14 billion as of December 31, 2005. - Obstacles facing the Ministry of Social Welfare and Promotion of Women and Childhood: - Inadequate funding relative to sector challenges; - Inadequate human resources at central and regional levels; - Lack of skills among personnel; - Lack of disbursement of subsidies for certain parts of the Department; - Difficulty in recovering debt owed to the CNSS by the public treasury. ### Outlook (planned actions for 2006) - Health sector (PNDS orientations): - Decentralization of health care services for HIV in all administrative regions, including ARV treatment activities, psychosocial support, information dissemination for behavioral change, prevention of mother/child transmission, and support to associations of persons living with HIV. - Strengthening of efforts to combat malaria and tuberculosis through IEC activities financed by the Global Fund. - Pilot experiments to establish contractual systems between the administration and the private sector to integrate overall supply of care and encourage rural communities’ ownership of Health Centers. - Finalization and validation of the new pharmaceutical policy to regulate the sector, combat illegal market in pharmaceuticals, and promote establishment of private pharmacies in the interior of the country. - Preparation of a human resource development plan covering recruitment planning, career management, training, and incentives for staff to work in poor areas. - Creation of a midwifery track at the Donka paramedical training institute (Institut de formation et de spécialisation des professions paramédicales de Donka) and decentralization of training courses for the certificat d’études spécialisées dans les hôpitaux régionaux to encourage work in rural areas. - Urban planning, housing, and sanitation programs to be implemented in 2006: - National Housing Program (Programme National d’Aménagement et de Développement de l’Habitat): - Make viable 80,000 hectares of urban sites; - Restructure 40,000 hectares of sites in old neighborhoods; - Production of 1,400,000 decent housing units with least-cost investment. - National Regional Planning Program (Programme National d’Aménagement du Territoire): decrease regional disparities, regional underequipment, rural exodus, and underemployment; improve spatial distribution of investment. - Integrated Development Program for Koba Tatéma – Bamako (Programme d’Aménagement Sous- régional Intégré de Koba Tatéma – Bamako): guide regional planning toward subregional economic integration. - Urban Support Program (Programme d’Appui Technique aux Villes): provide technical assistance to the 33 prefectures in administration and management of urban networks and services. - Integrated Development Program for Mining Areas (Programme de Développement Intégré des Régions Minières de la Guinée): rational management of economic and financial potential for spatially balanced development of mining regions. - Technical studies for Koloma Plateau (Programme relatif à la réalisation d’études techniques et de travaux d’aménagement du Plateau de Koloma): promote more rational urban development in the capital. - Social protection, promotion of women and childhood (2006 outlook): - Revision of sectoral policies of the Ministry of Social Welfare, Promotion of Women and Childhood. - Monitoring of facilities utilization and of funds used to support targeted population groups. - Strengthening coordination capacities of the Three-Year Women’s Literacy Program. - Continued renovation and equipment of Centres d’Appui à l'Autopromotion Féminine and Centres de Métiers. - Preparation of the annual preschool statistical yearbook 2005/2006. - Continued pedagogical inspection of administrative personnel involved in preschool outreach activities. - Organization of regional workshops for training and pedagogical monitoring of this personnel. - Implementation of results of the qualitative and quantitative study of the status of Guinea’s street children and child labor. - Organization of a subregional meeting on the situation of children in trouble with the law. - Continuation of evaluation visits to children in foster institutions, prisons and holding facilities to improve and update databases on children and women in trouble with the law. - Continuation of workshops to prepare and implement alternative incarceration options for minors and organization of a national workshop to harmonize prefectural declarations. - Preparation of a report on analysis of the status of orphans and vulnerable children, followed by development of a plan of action. - Efforts to combat begging by children. *Source: SSP/MEPUEC and calculations of the authors; Ministry of Urban Planning and Housing; Ministry of Social Welfare, Promotion of Women and Childhood (content as provided in the PDF).* ### PART III: GOVERNANCE ### PART III: GOVERNANCE ### Objectives - i. Greater decentralization and regionalization of public administration; - ii. Reduction of the impact of corruption on economic and social development; - iii. Greater participation and ownership on the part of the population; - iv. Greater stability and security; - v. Improvement of the country’s institutional and human capacities; - vi. Promotion of responsibility and transparency; - vii. Improved knowledge of monitoring and analysis. ### 3-1. DEMOCRATIC MANAGEMENT AND DECENTRALIZATION - 3-1-1 Democratic management — key events and findings: - Municipal and community elections were prepared and organized in 2005 to replace municipal and community councils as set out by law. - Sixteen political parties took part in these elections, which occurred on December 18, 2005, with results announced on December 29. - Preparatory work was conducted by the Department of Territorial Administration and Decentralization and supported by financial and technical assistance from development partners. - Upstream work included revision of the voter rolls and compilation of electoral lists, and a series of consultative “dialogues” between the administration and party representatives on election preparation and organization. - Introduction of transparent ballot boxes and of a single ballot sheet noted as important steps forward. - Dialogue shortcomings: responsibility shared between the Ministry of Territory Administration and Decentralization (MATD) and parties grouped under the hard-line opposition Front Républicain pour l’Alternance Démocratique (FRAD), which were not regular participants in working sessions. - Creation by decree in November of a national electoral commission (Commission Electorale Nationale Autonome, CENA) intended to ensure fairness; delays in establishing CENA’s structures prevented it from fulfilling its role effectively. - A national electoral observatory consisting solely of representatives of civil society was created for the first time with partner support. - Partners financed training of over 40,000 inspectors to oversee voting offices and the electoral system. - Anomalies in enforcement of laws by local authorities regarding reception and validation of parties’ candidate slates, and rejection of candidate lists in a large number of voting districts, cast doubt on democratic management and led to challenges to election results. - 3-1-2 Decentralization — legislative and program actions: - Finalization of the draft Code of Decentralized Collectivities, merging 87 legislative and regulatory texts into one document. - Training at the Sérédou Training Center of 48 officials in administration, management of collectivities, and election management techniques. - Preparation and promulgation of two laws regulating activities of associations, groups, mutuals, and cooperatives. - Decentralization-focused projects: Village Community Support Program (Programme d’Appui aux Communautés Villageoises, PACV) and Social Development Program for Upper and Middle Guinea (Programme de Développement Social durable de la Haute et Moyenne Guinée, PDSD/HMG). - PACV activities: - Organization of a workshop to validate studies of tax regimes and on capitalization and harmonization of tools for monitoring and planning of CRD management structures. - Establishment of the Association of Presidents of CRDs in Guinea within the CRD of Sarékaly (Télimélé prefecture). - Information and outreach campaign targeting population, local elected officials, and officials of decentralized and regionalized departments about municipal and community election stakes. - PDSD/HMG activities and outputs: - Training of 3,423 individuals in Upper Guinea and of 3,027 others in Middle Guinea in administrative techniques and practices, purchasing and procurement procedures, and local governance. - Assistance to collectivities for participatory diagnostic, preparation of development plans, and determination of local investment programs; similar assistance provided to prefectures for prefectural development plans. - Provision of computers, photocopiers, typewriters, radio communications, office furnishings, miscellaneous supplies, and computer training to the eight prefectures and eight municipalities covered by the project. ### 3-2. ANTI-CORRUPTION EFFORTS - ANLC activities in 2005: - Reception and examination of 16 complaints from citizens: two resolved to the satisfaction of the parties, four referred to relevant jurisdictions, and ten require travel within the country. - Reporting workshops in July and August 2005 in administrative regions and in Conakry on results of the corruption and governance survey. - IEC activities including scheduled distribution of a documentary film and cartoons, and installation of billboards with messages about corruption and governance. The workshop at Faranah, scheduled for July 2006, remained the only one outstanding. - A report on all regional workshops is available and has been published. - Participation in governance-related work organized by public agencies, institutions, and partners. - Corruption prevalence and implications: - The 2003 ENCOG revealed a prevalence rate of 36 percent. - Given that finding, it is not possible to assert that corruption has diminished; continued efforts must focus on: - Outreach and information on corruption; - Promotion of an environment where people report corruption and establishment of measures to protect whistleblowers from reprisals; - Rigorous oversight of public funds management; - Severe sanctions against offenders and effective enforcement of those sanctions; - Establishment of incentives to resist corruption for public administrators at all levels. - Coordination and program design recommendations: - Development partners and non-governmental actors recommended establishing a coordinating body for the good governance program that includes representatives of civil society and the private sector. - Recommended that the program’s cross-sectoral and multidisciplinary aspects be taken into account, and that design strategies adopt a participatory and iterative approach with major roles for non-governmental actors. - An international consultant was recruited by the World Bank Institute to assist from survey conduct to formulation and implementation of an action plan. - Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) actions: - Government and the World Bank agreed to establish a steering committee on transparency in extractive industries. - A provisional committee of public administration, republican institutions, civil society, and private sector representatives was set up to define job descriptions, mandates, and composition of the Permanent Steering Committee (Comité Permanent de Pilotage, CPP). - By Decree 2858/MMG/SGG2005, the Steering Committee was created, members appointed, and given the mandate of compiling available statistics (based on commitments or disbursements), conducting audits, or publishing mining revenue data in an accessible format. - The Permanent Committee carried out first data gathering for 2004 and the first half of 2005 via two consultants (one local, one expatriate) recruited by the World Bank; terms of reference of the audit were approved by the Permanent Steering Committee. - Internal regulations governing Steering Committee activities were being approved, and a strategy and action plan were being drawn up and to be validated shortly. - The Permanent Committee reorganized into three subcommissions: statistics, audits, and communication and information. - Sector-specific anti-corruption investigation: - ANLC continued in-depth investigations initiated in August 2000 by the National Anti-Corruption Committee (Comité National de Lutte contre la Corruption, CNLC) concerning management of fishing licenses and boarding of vessels. - An independent firm was recruited on the basis of limited competitive bidding to continue investigations at the Ministry of Justice’s request. - The independent auditing firm submitted a draft report in February 2006 on the mission to assess fisheries resources; despite administrative difficulties being addressed by the ANLC, the mission continued and a final report was anticipated in September 2006. ### 3-3. SECURITY - Mandate and capacity challenges: - Security departments are assigned protection of people and property, assistance in disasters (e.g., fire, livestock theft), and combating crime, drug use, and economic and financial malfeasance. - Current capacity constraints include small staff numbers, poor training, inadequate infrastructures, and facilities in decrepit condition. - Coverage ratios: one police officer for 2,000 residents of Conakry, and 1:6,000 in the interior of the country. - Security activities in 2005 — public safety: - Preparation of a strategy document diagnosing the current security situation and actions to improve it. - Arrest of several armed robbers and malefactors by the BRB, BAC, and CMIS departments. - Seizure and incineration (on December 29, 2005) of: - 5 metric tons of cannabis; - 1,121 kilograms of heroin; - 2.1 kilograms of cocaine. - Development of an anti-drug action plan based on an EU-financed study. - Recruitment of 1,500 police officers. - Security activities in 2005 — civil security: - Extinction of 139 fires. - 87 body transports. - 16 transports of sick individuals. - 4 miscellaneous interventions. - Average of 3 daily expeditions, during the period of low water pressure in the hydraulic system, to provide safe water to administrations and people in Conakry. ### 3-4. LEGAL AND JUDICIAL ENVIRONMENT - Reforms and oversight: - Several decrees issued in 2005 concerning reorganization of the Ministry of Justice, operationalization of the Council of the Magistrature, and status of clerks of judicial services. - An oversight mission to all jurisdictions occurred in May-June to determine the status of operations in courts, tribunals, holding facilities, and civilian prisons. - Judicial activity statistics: - Courts and tribunals rendered 2,260 final verdicts in criminal cases, and 2,129 in civil cases. - Persisting problems hampering justice sector operations: - Inadequacy or absence of legal documents and tools (e.g., codes, decrees) in departments and jurisdictions. - Poor training of magistrates in some areas of jurisprudence. - Poor working conditions due to inadequate infrastructures and facilities. - Failure of magistrates to adhere to document processing deadlines; corruption among some magistrates. - High concentration in Conakry of auxiliary judicial personnel (attorneys and bailiffs), preventing adequate legal assistance to the interior. - Interference by administrative authorities in the judicial process, preventing proper law enforcement and rendering of judicial decisions in accordance with professional standards. ### 3-5. OUTLOOK (planned activities for 2006) - For the Department of Territorial Administration and Decentralization and the PACV: - Help municipalities prepare their development plans. - Complete construction of headquarters of certain CRDs and municipalities. - Encourage and expand decentralized cooperation for benefit of local collectivities. - Train officials of decentralized and regionalized departments and elected officials in the new budgetary nomenclature and new fiscal provisions. - Organize national and regional seminars on results of, and trends in, organizations of civil society to gauge annual impact of their interventions. - Construct new housing units to enable the Sérédou Training Center to accommodate more trainees and house trainers and permanent staff. - For the PDSD/HMG: - Train officials of regionalized and decentralized structures and civil society in participatory approaches, preparation and management of community microprojects, and mobilization of internal and external funds in Upper and Middle Guinea. - Prepare and update local development plans and draw up development plans for the prefectures of Mali and Kouroussa. - Inform the population and raise awareness, through rural radio broadcasts, of project objectives and PRS implementation strategies. - Anti-corruption minimum program defined by ANLC: - Establishment of anti-corruption focal points within ministerial departments. - Reorganization of ANLC to add good governance interventions to its mandate. - Preparation of an anti-corruption law. - Security planned activities: - Improvement of the institutional framework. - Recruitment and skill enhancement for police officers (in particular 315 officers intended to supplement the civil security personnel). - Improvement of facilities and infrastructures at the policy academy in Boffa. - Construction of 10 urban commissariats in Conakry. - Renovation of the central commissariats in Conakry and Dubréka. - Second phase of construction of the DGPN in Coléah. *Source: PART III: GOVERNANCE (content unit _cr07140 - PART III: GOVERNANCE).* ### 4.1 POVERTY MONITORING AND ANALYSIS ### 4.1 POVERTY MONITORING AND ANALYSIS ### Objectives - Overall objective: monitor and report on trends in poverty and the impact of poverty reduction policies and programs. - Specific objectives: - (i) create a Poverty Reduction Statistics System (Système d’Informations Statistiques pour la Réduction de la Pauvreté, SISRP); - (ii) improve the body of knowledge concerning HIV/AIDS; - (iii) ensure effective participation by all stakeholders in PRS monitoring/evaluation. ### 2005 activities to support objectives - Continued discussion of the 56 core indicators selected for PRS monitoring and evaluation; prepared an improved version of the metadata and a report on trends in the 56 indicators (SP-SRP, with GTZ). - Training in monitoring/evaluation techniques for about 30 officials of the Thematic Working Group on Growth (assistance from GTZ and AGEVAL). - Preparation of a second progress report on PRS implementation in 2004. - Continued processing and analysis of EIBEP data to update the poverty database and establish a baseline for PRS monitoring and evaluation. - Finalization of processing and analysis of baseline survey (ESB) for the Social Development Project zone (Projet de Développement Social Durable de la Haute Guinée et de la Moyenne Guinée) to assess baseline situation. - Preparation, processing, and publication of preliminary results of the third Health and Population Survey to update health and population data. - Enhancement of human capacities in the Ministry of Planning and the PRS Permanent Secretariat for poverty analysis techniques using Macroeconomic Simulation and Poverty Analysis Models (PAMS). ### Evaluation of PRS implementation (Dec 2005–Mar 2006) - Evaluation led by four teams (governance, health, education, economic growth) with financial support from the European Union and the French Cooperation; completed in March 2006. - Purpose: inform efficient and sustainable implementation of Guinea’s poverty reduction strategy by identifying strengths and weaknesses. Findings from thematic reports: - Inadequacy of funding for further regionalization of public administration. - Poor functioning of collectivities despite legal and regulatory foundations. - Failure to pay out funding allocations to regionalized structures despite announcements during PRSP validation visits. - Diminished operating capacity of prefectures, resulting in higher indebtedness of the administration. - Poor planning and poor cooperation among partners, resulting in regional disparities in public investment and unbalanced national development. - Uneven distribution of health care personnel, scarcity of staff at health facilities, and low health service coverage. - Evacuation of sick patients to referral centers under poor conditions that do not ensure patient safety. - Improvement of gross enrollment ratio (GER) at primary and national levels, amply exceeding the PRSP goal of 70 percent. - Improvement of GER for girls by 10 points over PRSP goals (PRSP aimed at 63 percent). - Low level of reading capacity in schools; authorities declared 2006 the Year of Reading. - Inadequate training infrastructures for technical and vocational education. - High demand for access to higher education. - Failure to apply prevailing legal and regulatory procedures in procurement. ### Improvement of regional PRS and preparation of PRSP-2 - Participatory consultations began in August 2005 to gather regional information for workshops. - Two workshops (process launch and thematic) held in regional capitals and Conakry, resulting in: - (i) better definition of priority objectives; - (ii) clear identification of activities; - (iii) clarification of roles of various actors. - The second PRSP (PRS-2) to be prepared in a participatory manner with greater civil society involvement and stronger interfacing with the MDGs. - Revision will rely on: - a) Results of studies on sectoral policies and funding required to achieve MDGs in Guinea by 2015; - b) Conclusions of PRS implementation evaluation (four thematic reports and one summary report); - c) Six regional Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (being finalized); - d) Contributions from Thematic Working Groups (“Thematic Reports”); - e) Three PRS implementation progress reports (2003, 2004, 2005). ### Outlook: unresolved problems hampering monitoring and evaluation - Remaining problems: - (i) poor human, logistical, and technical capacities of statistical departments in priority sectors; - (ii) poor capacities of regional and prefectural bodies charged with PRS monitoring and evaluation; - (iii) lack of standards for assessing poverty reduction projects and programs; - (iv) flaws in organization of a superficial household survey intended to determine trends in well-being; - (v) weakness of human and logistical capacities of the Technical Unit of the PRS Permanent Secretariat; - (vi) unreliability of data produced by the national statistical system. Planned actions in 2006 to address problems: - Development of a national strategy for statistics development (Stratégie Nationale de Développement de la Statistique, SNDS). - Continuation of evaluation activities. - Preparation of an RGPH. - Capacity building for decentralized/regionalized departments in monitoring and evaluation. - Continued fine-tuning of regional strategies. ### Conclusion and key 2004–2005 developments - PRS overall objective: reduce poverty significantly and sustainably by increasing incomes and improving well-being, particularly of the poorest. - Government efforts in 2005 relative to 2003 and 2004 focused on improving macroeconomic situation and increasing access to basic social services. Key macro and social outcomes reported: - GDP growth increased from 2.7 percent in 2004 to 3.3 percent in 2005. - Per capita GDP growth rate: 0.1 percent in 2005, compared to -0.8 in 2004. - Deficit shrunk and stood at -0.8 percent of GDP. - Gross enrollment rate rose from 77 percent to 79 percent nationally; rate for girls reached 73 percent (up 3 percentage points from 2004). - Number of integrated health posts increased from 604 to 623 between 2004 and 2005. - Number of integrated health centers increased from 395 to 399 between 2004 and 2005. - Number of water points developed totaled 12,814 in 2005. - Access rate to safe water in 2002 was 64.3 percent (2002/2003 EIBEP). Poverty and constraints: - Incidence of population living below poverty threshold increased from 49.2 percent in 2002 to 53.6 percent in 2005. - Contributing factors: low economic growth, very high inflation (29.7 percent year-on-year), rising petroleum prices, poor management of public funds, corruption, lack of accountability, poor interfacing between the budget and the PRSP. - Recommended government actions: concrete anti-corruption measures, effective monetary policy, better monitoring of public expenditures to restore economic growth and improve economic governance. ### Selected key indicators (as reported) - Incidence of poverty at national level: 62.6% (1995) baseline; 50.0 (2003); 50.1 (2004); 53.6 (2005). PRSP target: 30% (2010). - GDP growth (in % per annum): 3.7 (1996/00); 5.2 (2002/05); 1.2 (2003); 2.7 (2004); 3.3 (2005). - GDP growth per capita (%): 1.01 (1996/00); 1.9 (2002/05); -1.8 (2003); -0.4 (2004); 0.1 (2005). - Investment rate (% of GDP): 16.2 (1996/00); 18 (2002/05); 16.1 (2003); 8.9 (2004); 13.2 (2005). - Inflation (% year-on-year): 14.8 (2003); 27.6 (2004); 29.7 (2005). - Global budget balance (commitment basis, excl. grants, % of GDP): -7.9 (2003); -5.9 (2004); -0.8 (2005). - Gross primary enrollment ratio (%): 74.0 (2003); 77.0 (2004); 79.0 (2005). PRSP goal: 70 (2004/05). - Gross enrollment rate of girls (%): 67.0 (2003); 70.0 (2004); 73.0 (2005). PRSP goal for girls: 63 (2004/05). - Infant mortality rate (‰): 98 (1999) baseline; 91 (2005). - Maternal mortality rate (per 100,000): 528 (1999) baseline. - HIV seroprevalence rate (%): 1.5 (2005). Historical: 2-4 (1998). - Vaccination coverage (selected): - BCG: 71 (2003); 83 (2004); 71 (2005). - DTCP: 58 (2003); 65 (2004); 63 (2005); 89 (2005 entry in Table 20). - VAR: 61 (2003); 70 (2004); 60 (2005); 82 (2005 entry in Table 20). - VAA: 17 (2003); 33 (2004); 77 (2005); 84 (2005 entry in Table 20). - VAT-2+: 53 (2003); 56 (2004); 69 (2005); 75 (2005 entry in Table 20). - Population with access to safe water (%): 49 (1999) baseline; 64,3 (2002); target 80 (2005). - Number of water points built annually: planned 800; completions: 658 (2003); 291 (2004); 252 (2005). - Number of integrated and operating health centers: 371 (2002); 391 (2003); 395 (2004); 399 (2005). - Number of integrated and operational health posts: 384 (2002); 515 (2003); 604 (2004); 623 (2005). *IMF country report section: 4.1 POVERTY MONITORING AND ANALYSIS* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2007/_cr07140.pdf_