## _cr07339

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---

### Poverty as a multidimensional phenomenon
- Poverty defined as privations hindering access to basic needs: nutrition, health, education, housing, drinking water, basic sanitation, primary healthcare and education; limitation of choice and dignity; extreme poverty exposes to hunger, disease and environmental catastrophes.
- Government diagnostic combined:
  - qualitative/subjective participatory perceptions (majority view: poverty = material incapacity and moral powerlessness);
  - quantitative/objective ILAP survey (March–May 2002) to determine poverty indicators, incidence, depth, severity, inequality and main determinants.

### Extent, human indicators, and health environment
- Two out of three Guineans are still below the absolute poverty line.
- Life expectancy at birth: 45 years.
- Child mortality: one out of five children dies.
- Maternal mortality described: “a great number of women still lose their lives giving birth.”
- Health challenges explicitly mentioned: HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis continue to advance.
- Basic services shortages: limited access to drinking water, sanitation and decent housing.

### Poverty measurements (ILAP, population 1,181,641) — exact figures
- Absolute poverty (< $2/day):
  - Incidence ≈ 64.7 percent → 764,672 people.
- Extreme poverty (< $1/day):
  - Incidence 20.8 percent → 245,965 people.
- Poverty lines: 108,000 FCFA ($1) and 216,000 FCFA ($2).
- Incidence (%) at $1: Bissau 9.3; Other regions 24.8; Total 20.8.
- Incidence (%) at $2: Bissau 51.6; Other regions 69.7; Total 64.7.
- Number of poor people at $1: Bissau 28,414; Other regions 217,551; Total 245,965.
- Number of poor people at $2: Bissau 157,612; Other regions 607,060; Total 764,672.
- P1 Depth at $1: Bissau 0.018; Other regions 0.065; Total 0.053.
- P1 Depth at $2: Bissau 0.169; Other regions 0.278; Total 0.250.
- Average gap between threshold income of the poor at $1: Bissau 21,419; Other regions 28,493; Total 27,668.
- Average gap between threshold income of the poor at $2: Bissau 71,509; Other regions 87,276; Total 84,032.
- P2 Severity at $1: Bissau 0.006; Other regions 0.026; Total 0.021.
- P2 Severity at $2: Bissau 0.073; Other regions 0.142; Total 0.124.
- Additional ILAP findings:
  - Poor people’s consumption was 25 percent below the poverty line of $2 per day.
  - Consumption gaps: interior regions 27.8 percent; Bissau 16.9 percent.
  - For extreme poverty (< $1), consumption deficit 5.3 percent overall; depth at $1: Bissau 1.8 percent; regions 6.5 percent.
  - Average shortfalls: 84,032 FCFA per person per year to reach the $2 line (216,000 FCFA); 27,688 FCFA for the $1 line.

### Comparability and demographic patterns
- HCBS (1991) vs ILAP (2002):
  - HCBS (1991) at $2/day → poverty rate 49 percent; ILAP (2002) → 64.7 percent.
  - HCBS (1991) at $1/day → 26 percent; ILAP (2002) → 20.8 percent.
- World Bank (2005) revised ILAP estimates:
  - $2/day poverty rate: 65.7 percent.
  - Extreme poverty rate: 21.7 percent.
- Age and gender patterns:
  - Poverty more prevalent among people 45 years and older, particularly those over 66 years; lowest prevalence for people 31 to 45 years.
  - Women and men similar as groups: at $2/day incidences 65.6 percent (women) and 65.9 percent (men); at $1/day 21.1 percent (women) and 22 percent (men).
  - For age groups up to 31 and beyond 65, incidence of poverty is much higher for women than men.
  - Women fare better as a group because of activities in the informal sector.

### Poverty decomposition by activity, location and inequality
- Labor and employment (population 15+; ILAP, 2002):
  - More than 60 percent are active.
  - Unemployment rate (15+): nationwide 12.4 percent; Bissau 19.3 percent; other regions 10.2 percent.
  - Employment by sector (15+): agriculture 63.5 percent; industry 8.9 percent; public administration 6.1 percent.
  - Employment type: 58.4 percent self-employed/freelance; wage earners represent 42 percent in Bissau.
  - People employed in agriculture are poorer than those in other sectors.
  - Poverty increases with household size and location; decreases with education level of household head; secondary and higher education reduce poverty risk.
- Regional poverty (less than $2 per day) — poverty rate / regional contribution:
  - BAFATA: 72.4%; 13.6%.
  - BIOMBO/BOLAMA: 62.6%; 9.1%.
  - CACHEU: 63.8%; 14.2%.
  - GABU: 65.8%; 12.3%.
  - OIO: 79.6%; 18.0%.
  - QUINARA/TOMBALI: 69.1%; 12.2%.
  - BISSAU: 51.6%; 20.6%.
  - Regions other than BISSAU: 69.1%; 79.4%.
  - Total: 64.7%; 100%.
- Inequality:
  - GINI index (ILAP): total 0.36; Bissau 0.37; other regions 0.33.
  - Approximately 30 percent of Bissau population control 60 percent of consumption or income; 40 percent in other regions control 60 percent.
  - Annual per inhabitant spending: Bissau 216,409; Other regions 145,793; Total 164,061.
  - POVERTY LINE $1: Poor people (1): Bissau 68,509; Other regions 60,360; Total 61,311. Non-poor people (2): Bissau 231,566; Other regions 173,579; Total 190,715. Ratio (2)/(1): Bissau 3.1; Other regions 2.9; Total 3.1.
  - POVERTY LINE $2: Poor people (1): Bissau 113,104; Other regions 96,998; Total 100,312. Non-poor people (2): Bissau 324,182; Other regions 253,282; Total 278,352. Ratio (2)/(1): Bissau 2.9; Other regions 2.6; Total 2.8.

### Macroeconomic shocks, performance and structural constraints
- War and shocks:
  - 1998 real GDP decline: 28 percent.
  - Agricultural production decline: 17 percent.
  - From 2000 to 2004 real GDP grew only 1 percent (noted elsewhere as “nearly 1 percent from 2000 to 2004”).
  - Estimates for 2005 growth around 3.5 percent.
  - PRGF program for 2000-03 targeted 8 to 9 percent growth; suspension in 2001 followed a 30 percent decline in cashew nut prices and mismanagement linked to political interference.
  - Private sector losses assessed at approximately USD 90 million.
- Long-term macro trends and vulnerabilities:
  - Period 1990-2001: standard of living declined 1.3 percent per year.
  - 2002: GDP growth rate -7.2 percent.
  - Investment/GDP: 21.8 percent in 1997 → 11 percent in 2003.
  - Local savings rate negative from 1998 to the present (as reported).
  - Government aid for development: 74.2 percent of GDP in 1994 → nearly 29.2 percent in 2002.
  - Per capita government aid: 133.8 dollars in 1994 → 40.4 dollars in 2002.
- Economic structure (2004):
  - Primary agricultural sector contribution to GDP: 59.6 percent.
  - Industrial sector: 12 percent.
  - Services sector: 28.4 percent.
  - Cashew exports: more than 93,000 tons exported in 2004 and 2005; since 2000 cashew nuts represented nearly 90 percent of the value of exports.

### Public finance and external debt pressures — selected figures (exact)
- Primary current balance (percentage of GDP): -4.7 percent in 2001; -6.9 percent in 2005.
- Global budgetary balance including donations: -11.7 percent in 2001; -15.6 percent in 2003; -12.1 percent in 2005.
- Tax pressure rate: 8.3 percent in 2004; 11.5 percent in 2005; WAEMU recommendation: 17 percent.
- Wage bill as percentage of tax revenues: 111.9 percent in 2003; 155.0 percent in 2004; 108.9 percent in 2005; recommended maximum 35 percent of revenues.
- Investments (percentage of GDP): rose from 9.6 percent to 14.6 percent in 2005; WAEMU convergence criterion: 20 percent.
- Domestic savings: negative from 2001 to 2005.
- External debt outstanding (2004): 540.1 billion FCFA.
  - Debt service representing 364.9 percent of GDP and 43.9 percent of exports in 2004.
  - Foreign debt as of late 2004: 540.1 billion FCFA, of which 129.9 billion FCFA were arrears (excluding IDA, ADB and IMF).
  - Paris Club arrears end-2004: 82.1 billion FCFA; non-Paris Club creditors arrears: 342.8 million FCFA; multilateral creditors arrears: 12.6 billion FCFA.
- Paris Club (2003): total owed 324.4 billion FCFA; 71.7 percent pre cut-off date; 28.3 percent post cut-off date. Negotiations: Italy will offer 100 percent forgiveness at the completion point; Spain comparable on case by case basis.

### NPRSP participatory process and ownership
- Three-level institutional participation framework: (i) political and institutional, (ii) technical, (iii) popular and community.
- Consultations and participation:
  - Nine discussion meetings March–April 2002 in nine regions; average 120 participants per meeting; overall 1,080 representatives.
  - Second round: five provincial meetings in August 2004: approximately 300 participants.
  - Eleven specialized workshops: average 30 participants; some 350 specialists involved.
  - Last seminar July 2006 sponsored by Prime Minister to incorporate defense and security sector reform priorities.
- Participatory instruments: ILAP, participatory studies on perceptions of poverty, surveys, meetings, workshops and seminars.

### NPRSP strategic emphases and pillars (2005–2008)
- NPRSP positioned as instrument to significantly reduce poverty and achieve the MDGs.
- Cross-cutting themes: gender, HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, decentralization and infrastructure; Security Sector Reform (SSR) presented as prerequisite for peace and development.
- Strategic pillars (NPRSP 2005–2008):
  - Pillar I: modernize public administration, strengthen governance, ensure macroeconomic stability.
  - Pillar II: foster economic growth and job creation.
  - Pillar III: increase access to social services and basic infrastructure.
  - Pillar IV: improve the living conditions of vulnerable groups.
- Immediate (first) phase 2006–2008: concentrate on measures with immediate, visible effects for poor people; key sectors: agriculture, fishing, basic infrastructures, microfinance, social services supply improvement.
- Security Sector Reform (SSR) focus: demobilization, transformation of armed forces, incentive-based demobilization and reintegration.

### Medium- and long-term targets and macroeconomic objectives (exact projections and targets)
- Poverty projections:
  - Poverty rate projected: 68.5% in 2005 → 65.9% in 2008 → 64.1% in 2010 → 59.7% in 2015.
  - Extreme poverty: 22% in 2005 → 21.2% in 2008 → 20.6% in 2010 → 19.2% in 2015.
- Macroeconomic and growth objectives:
  - Ensure average annual growth rate of at least 5% over the period.
  - Limit average annual inflation rate to 3%.
  - Real GDP growth rate projected for 2006-2008: 5% with real growth rate per capita of approximately 2.5% per year on average (2004 SMP and Multiyear Convergence Program).
- Underlying assumptions:
  - Average real GDP growth rate for 2006-2008: at least 5%; demographic growth rate approximately 2.2%; per inhabitant growth between 2% and 2.8%.
  - Assuming income inequality remains low and stable, each 1% increase in real GDP per capita translates into at least 0.5% reduction in incidence of poverty.
  - Average investment rate to generate 5% growth estimated at approximately 20% per year.
  - Strong mobilization of external resources envisaged; continued transfers from emigrants assumed to support positive national savings.

### MDG scoreboard — selected indicators and targets (Table 7 exact values)
- Absolute poverty rate / Extreme poverty rate (%) — 64.7 / 20.8 (2002); 68.5 / 22.0 (2005); 67.8 / 21.8 (2006); 66.8 / 21.5 (2007); 65.9 / 21.2 (2008); 64.1 / 20.6 (2010); 59.7 / 19.2 (Target for 2015).
- Net enrolment rate (%) — 50.6 (2002); 62.8 (2005); 66 (2006); 69.4 (2007); 72.6 (2008); 80.5 (2010); 100 (Target for 2015).
- Net girl-to-boy primary enrolment ratio — 0.5 (2002); 0.57 (2005); 0.62 (2006); 0.67 (2007); 0.72 (2008); 0.82 (2010); 1 (Target for 2015).
- Mortality rate for children under 5 years old (per 1,000) / Child mortality rate (per 1,000) — 203 / 122 (2002); 197.4 / 117.4 (2005); 189.9 / 112.9 (2006); 182.7 / 108.6 (2007); 175.7 / 104.5 (2008); 161.1 / 96.7 (2010); 134.0 / 79.7 (Target for 2015).
- Maternal mortality rate (per 100,000 women) — 822 (2002); 809 (2005); 800.1 (2006); 791.3 (2007); 751.7- (2008); 678.4 (2010); 525 (Target for 2015).
- AIDS prevalence rate (%) — 7.0 (2002); 2.5 (Target for 2015).
- Percentage of the population with sustainable access to drinking water supply — 54.6 (2002); 35.0 (2005); 80.0 (Target for 2015).

### NPRSP cost, composition and financing (exact figures)
- Funding requirements for 2006–08: CFAF 227.2 billion, or USD 441.2 million.
  - Investments: CFAF 148.4 billion (65.3% of budget).
  - Other interventions (direct for poor populations, structural/sector reforms, institutional support, human resources): 34.7% of budget.
- Annual planned investment shares of GDP:
  - 26.8% of GDP in 2006.
  - 32.5% in 2007.
  - 21.9% in 2008.
- NPRSP TOTAL (2006–08): CFAF 67,555,199,714 (2006); CFAF 89,044,709,344 (2007); CFAF 70,621,060,760 (2008) — Total CFAF 227,220,969,818 — 100%.
- NPRSP in USD: 2006: 131,175,145; 2007: 172,902,348; 2008: 137,128,273; Total: 441,205,767.
- Financing acquisition status:
  - Total financing acquired: 44,741,814,152 F CFA (19.7%).
  - Financing to be raised: 182,479,155,666 F CFA (80.3%).
  - NPRSP in USD: acquired 86,877,309; to be raised 354,328,458.
- Financing by pillar (selected acquisition shares):
  - Pillar I total: 30,784,399,000 — financing acquired 2,123,000,000 (6.9%); to be raised 28,661,399,000 (93.1%).
  - Pillar II total: 104,632,435,371 — financing acquired 15,278,262,705 (14.6%); to be raised 89,354,172,666 (85.4%).
  - Pillar III total: 75,346,919,447 — financing acquired 25,280,335,447 (33.6%); to be raised 50,066,584,000 (66.4%).
  - Pillar IV total: 16,457,216,000 — financing acquired 2,060,216,000 (12.5%); to be raised 14,397,000,000 (87.5%).
- Monitoring and evaluation (not included in total): CFAF 250,000,000 (485,437 dollars) — breakdown by training, data collection, impact studies and dissemination.

### Priority policy measures and structural reforms (explicit items)
- Fiscal and public finance:
  - Fiscal consolidation given large primary deficits and high wage bill relative to revenues.
  - Raise tax-to-GDP ratio toward WAEMU target: transition from GST to VAT to increase tax-to-GDP from current 10% to 17%.
  - Create a Large Taxpayer Unit and modernize revenue collection; rehabilitate private sector and SMEs to broaden tax base.
  - Limit current spending and downsize public sector; bring wage bill below 35% of tax revenues; computerized payroll and remove ‘ghost’ workers.
- Debt management:
  - Continue negotiations for HIPCI relief; take advantage of MDRI “as soon as possible.”
  - Audit domestic debt through end-2005; convert arrears into formal debt and establish payment plans; seek financing and negotiate discounts.
- Macroeconomic and structural:
  - Diversify exports beyond raw cashew nuts; increase cashew processing (target production: annual average 125,000 tons, 24% processed and exported locally by 2007).
  - Develop small-scale fishing: training, modern equipment, organization, sanitary/laboratory control and conservation structures.
  - Improve business environment and judicial reform; privatize or partially sell government-owned enterprises; create Economic Promotion Fund.
  - Improve infrastructure: roads (identify key networks and rehabilitate), port dredging and equipment, airport renovation, expand electricity access, liberalize and expand telecommunications.
- Social sectors:
  - Education: increase net enrolment, reduce gender gaps, increase teacher training and classroom capacity, expand preschool coverage, increase adult literacy (target adult literacy +50% by 2015 for women).
  - Health: strengthen primary health care, malaria control (RBM), TB and HIV/AIDS programs, safe maternity, vaccination coverage, expand access to drinking water and sanitation.
  - Social protection: Social Action Fund to finance income-generating activities; microlending expansion; targeted programs for children, handicapped, victims of mines/explosives, war veterans, elderly, youth.
- Agriculture, natural resources and environment:
  - Increase investment in agriculture and livestock; double budget shares for agriculture initially and reach at least 20% of the budget by 2008.
  - Forest policy: assess and plan resources; revise taxes to fund reforestation and encourage local processing; regulate charcoal exports; community management and enforcement.
  - Promote agro-processing, storage, seeds research, irrigation, and market access; promote short-cycle livestock production and genetic improvement.
- Governance, decentralization and security:
  - Strengthen rule of law and judiciary; reform security sector with demobilization, reintegration and transformation of armed forces.
  - Implement decentralization: legal framework, capacity-building for local institutions, social mobilization and consensus-building.

### Implementation, monitoring, capacity-building and risks
- Institutional setup:
  - IMU (Implementation and Monitoring Unit) coordinated by Ministry of the Economy with Steering Committee chaired by the Prime Minister; IMU permanent with competitively hired staff.
  - Local communities and civil society to participate in programming, auditing and monitoring.
- Monitoring methodology:
  - Monthly/quarterly/semi-annual sequencing for activities and budget execution; periodic monitoring tables with budgetary and performance indicators by pillar; mid-term and final evaluations; general population census planned mid-term.
- Statistical strengthening:
  - Strengthen INEC to produce and disseminate official statistics; focus on national accounts and social scoreboard; conduct surveys in poorest areas; quantitative survey at NPRSP conclusion.
- Risks to implementation (identified):
  - Institutional risk: need for institutional stability.
  - Technical risk: absorption capacity and monitoring challenges.
  - Financing risk: large share of funding (80.3%) not secured; proposals ambitious relative to absorption capacity.
  - External risk: vulnerability to oil price changes, dollar/euro/F CFA fluctuations, terms of trade deterioration and external shocks.
- Risk mitigation measures:
  - Create legal and institutional environment promoting stability and funding.
  - Strengthen coordination and participation of stakeholders; cooperate closely with private sector and development partners; seek untied aid consistent with Paris declaration.

*Excerpt from IMF staff report / NPRSP preparatory sections and implementation chapters as provided in source content.*

### 2.1    Poverty is a multidimensional phenomenon

### _cr07339 - 2.1    Poverty is a multidimensional phenomenon

### Introduction and overview
- Since the end of the 1998-99 war, Guinea-Bissau’s economic, political and social situation has been difficult and has had a negative impact on living conditions.
- The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew only 1 percent from 2000 to 2004.
- The transition institutions finalized the National Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (NPRSP) in August 2004; a partial revision was undertaken in 2005 to reflect new governmental priorities, including security sector reform.
- The NPRSP treats the fight against poverty as a long-term objective and emphasizes population participation and ownership.

### Poverty dimensions, extent and human indicators
- Two out of three Guineans are still below the absolute poverty line (phrase from source).
- Life expectancy at birth: 45 years.
- Child mortality: one out of five children dies.
- Maternal mortality: “a great number of women still lose their lives giving birth” (phrase preserved).
- Health challenges explicitly mentioned: HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis continue to advance.
- Basic services shortages: limited access to drinking water, sanitation and decent housing.

### Historical poverty measurements and surveys
- 1991 Household Consumption and Budget Survey (HCBS), reevaluated in 1994: poverty rate of 49 percent at the poverty line of $ 2 per day.
- Small Poverty Assessment Survey (ILAP) conducted in 2001-2002:
  - Absolute poverty rate: 64.7 percent for people living on less than two dollars per day.
  - Extreme poverty rate: 20.8 percent for those living on less than one dollar per day.
- The decline in real GDP per capita from 2001 to 2004 broadened the extent of poverty.

### Macroeconomic shocks and economic context
- PRGF (IMF Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility) program for 2000-03 called for a real GDP growth rate of 8 to 9 percent for the period 2000-03.
- Suspension of the PRGF in 2001 followed a 30 percent decline in cashew nuts prices and mismanagement of public resources due to political interferences, leading to economic recession and suspension of major externally financed assistance.
- War impacts:
  - 1998 real GDP decline: 28 percent.
  - Agricultural production decline: 17 percent.
- From 2000 to 2003, government instability weakened institutions and disrupted coherent economic and social policymaking.
- Financial intermediation was limited; the banking system comprised just one commercial bank until end-2005, when two new banks were established.

### Structural constraints and development priorities
- Identified structural constraints:
  - Weak economic diversification and competitiveness.
  - Weak mobilization of internal resources.
  - Lack of private sector dynamism.
  - Weak development of human capital.
  - Declining infrastructure and severely affected education system.
  - Reduced human and institutional capacities requiring sustained strengthening.
- Development priorities implied by the diagnostic:
  - Broad, multidimensional approach to poverty that includes economic, social, human, environmental and institutional dimensions.
  - Emphasis on good governance, battling corruption, respect for human rights, equality of the sexes, strengthening institutional capacities, improving social services supply, increasing productive capacity in agriculture and fishing, and environmental conservation.

### Participatory process in NPRSP preparation
- Participation objectives: mobilize qualified human resources, in-depth stakeholder consultation, constant interaction across stakeholder levels, formation of consensus, ownership and commitment to solutions.
- Three-level institutional participation framework: (i) political and institutional, (ii) technical, (iii) popular and community.
- Discussion meetings:
  - Nine discussion meetings held during March-April 2002 in Gabu, Bafatá, Oio, Cacheu, Quínara, Tombali, Biombo, Bolama-Bijagós and Bissau.
  - On average, 120 people participated in each of the 9 meetings.
  - Overall participation: 1,080 representatives from all regions and socioeconomic groups.
- Second round of five provincial meetings in August 2004 to present proposed solutions: approximately 300 people participated.
- Specialized workshops:
  - Eleven specialized workshops organized throughout the process.
  - Average of 30 participants per session.
  - Involvement of some 350 specialists across government, private and association sectors.
- Last seminar held in July 2006 and sponsored by the Prime Minister to incorporate new government priorities, particularly defense and security sector reform.
- Participatory instruments used: ILAP, participatory studies on perceptions of poverty, surveys, discussion meetings, workshops and seminars.

### Strategic emphases reflected in the NPRSP
- The NPRSP is positioned as the instrument to significantly reduce poverty in all its forms and to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
- Cross-cutting themes in the strategy:
  - Gender is treated as a cross-cutting factor and integrated into sectoral and global diagnostics and the priority actions matrix.
  - HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis are addressed as epidemics whose progression must be halted.
  - Decentralization and infrastructure development were explicitly shaped by population concerns gathered during consultations.
- Security Sector Reform (SSR) is presented as a prerequisite for peace and development, and incorporated among new government priorities.

*Source: Excerpt from the NPRSP preparatory sections and Box 1 (participatory process) in the document.*

### 2.         THE

### THE PHENOMENON OF POVERTY

### A. 2.1 Poverty is a multidimensional phenomenon
- Poverty reflects privations that hinder a person’s access to basic means to satisfy basic needs of nutrition, health, education and housing and to live longer.
- Defined as a state of great need and the incapacity to satisfy basic needs for food, clothing, drinking water, housing, basic sanitation, primary healthcare and education.
- Also a limitation of possibilities for choice and inability to benefit from opportunities enabling life in decent conditions, with liberty and dignity.
- Extreme poverty exposes populations to hunger, disease and environmental catastrophes.
- For the NPRSP diagnostic, the government carried out:
  - a qualitative/subjective survey (perceptions and participatory diagnostic) showing the majority view poverty as material incapacity and moral powerlessness; and
  - a quantitative/objective survey (Small Poverty Assessment Survey — ILAP, March to May 2002) to determine poverty indicators, incidence, depth, severity, inequality and main determinants via a poverty profile analysis.

### B. 2.2 Measuring poverty
- Prevalence (ILAP estimates, population 1,181,641):
  - 764,672 people live in poverty, with less than two dollars per day → incidence ≈ 64.7 percent.
  - 245,965 people live in extreme poverty, with less than one dollar per day → 20.8 percent.
- Box 2: Definitions
  - Incidence (prevalence): percentage of population with consumption or income below poverty threshold.
  - Depth: poverty gap — distance separating average spending for the poor from the poverty line.
  - Severity: extent of the average gap from the poverty line; indicates situation of the poorest of the poor.
- Table 1 highlights (preserve exact reported values):
  - Poverty line: 108,000 FCFA ($1) and 216,000 FCFA ($2).
  - Incidence (%) at $1: Bissau 9.3; Other regions 24.8; Total 20.8.
  - Incidence (%) at $2: Bissau 51.6; Other regions 69.7; Total 64.7.
  - Number of poor people at $1: Bissau 28,414; Other regions 217,551; Total 245,965.
  - Number of poor people at $2: Bissau 157,612; Other regions 607,060; Total 764,672.
  - P1 Depth at $1: Bissau 0.018; Other regions 0.065; Total 0.053.
  - P1 Depth at $2: Bissau 0.169; Other regions 0.278; Total 0.250.
  - Average gap between threshold income of the poor at $1: Bissau 21,419; Other regions 28,493; Total 27,668.
  - Average gap between threshold income of the poor at $2: Bissau 71,509; Other regions 87,276; Total 84,032.
  - P2 Severity at $1: Bissau 0.006; Other regions 0.026; Total 0.021.
  - P2 Severity at $2: Bissau 0.073; Other regions 0.142; Total 0.124.
  - Source: INEC/ILAP
- Additional ILAP findings:
  - Poor people’s consumption was 25 percent below the poverty line of $2 per day.
  - Consumption gaps: interior regions 27.8 percent; Bissau 16.9 percent.
  - For extreme poverty (< $1), consumption deficit 5.3 percent overall; depth at $1: Bissau 1.8 percent; regions 6.5 percent.
  - Average difference between poverty line and poor people’s income:
    - 84,032 FCFA for people at 2 USD per day (shortfall versus 216,000 FCFA).
    - 27,688 FCFA for those at 1 USD per day.
  - "84,032 FCFA per person per year is required for all poor people to reach the poverty line."
- Comparability and revisions:
  - HCBS (1991) vs ILAP (2002): methodologies differ.
    - HCBS (1991) at $2/day → poverty rate 49 percent; ILAP (2002) → 64.7 percent.
    - HCBS (1991) at $1/day → 26 percent; ILAP (2002) → 20.8 percent.
  - World Bank assessment (2005) revised ILAP estimates:
    - $2/day poverty rate revised upward to 65.7 percent.
    - Extreme poverty rate revised upward to 21.7 percent.
    - Poverty more prevalent among people 45 years and older, particularly those over 66 years.
    - People 31 to 45 years had the lowest prevalence.
    - Women and men similar as groups: at $2/day incidences 65.6 percent (women) and 65.9 percent (men); at $1/day 21.1 percent (women) and 22 percent (men).
    - For age groups up to 31 and beyond 65, incidence of poverty is much higher for women than men.
    - Women fare better as a group because of activities in the informal sector.

### C. 2.3 Analysis of poverty by category and region
- Methodological note:
  - ILAP decomposed poverty by Bissau versus other regions (not rural/urban), limiting detailed rural analysis.
  - ILAP provides data by age, activity, gender, etc.
- Poverty and economic activity:
  - Of people over 15 years, more than 60 percent are active (ILAP, 2002).
  - Unemployment rate (15+): nationwide 12.4 percent; Bissau 19.3 percent; other regions 10.2 percent.
  - Employment by sector (15+): agriculture (including forestry and fishing) 63.5 percent; industry 8.9 percent; public administration 6.1 percent.
  - Employment type: 58.4 percent are self-employed/freelance; wage earners represent 42 percent in Bissau.
  - People employed in agriculture are poorer than those in other sectors.
  - Poverty increases with household size and location of residence; decreases with education level of household head. Secondary and higher education reduce poverty risk.
- Poverty and location:
  - Poverty prevalence higher in rural than urban areas.
  - Table 2: Poverty rate by region and regional contribution to poverty (less than $2 per day):
    - BAFATA: Absolute poverty rate 72.4%; Regional contribution 13.6%.
    - BIOMBO/BOLAMA: 62.6%; 9.1%.
    - CACHEU: 63.8%; 14.2%.
    - GABU: 65.8%; 12.3%.
    - OIO: 79.6%; 18.0%.
    - QUINARA/TOMBALI: 69.1%; 12.2%.
    - BISSAU: 51.6%; 20.6%.
    - Regions other than BISSAU: 69.1% (absolute rate); 79.4% (regional contribution? — as presented).
    - Total for the country: 64.7%; 100%.
    - Source: INEC, December 2002.
  - Bissau has the largest contribution to national poverty because of demographic weight, though each region’s contribution is considerable.
  - Depth of poverty greater in other regions than in Bissau for both $1 and $2 lines.
    - Monetary value to raise poor to poverty line (216,000 FCFA): national 84,032 FCFA; Bissau 71,509 FCFA; other regions 87,276 FCFA.
- Inequality:
  - GINI index (ILAP): total 0.36.
    - Indicates lower concentration of spending and less inequality compared to some neighbors (e.g., Senegal 0.40).
    - GINI by area: Bissau 0.37; other regions 0.33.
  - Estimated concentration:
    - Approximately 30 percent of Bissau population control 60 percent of consumption or income.
    - 40 percent of population in other regions control 60 percent of consumption.
  - Level of spending by poor people is virtually one third that of non-poor people; gap greater in Bissau.
  - Table 3 highlights (preserve reported values):
    - GINI Index: Bissau 0.37; Other regions 0.33; Total 0.36.
    - Annual per inhabitant spending: Bissau 216,409; Other regions 145,793; Total 164,061.
    - POVERTY LINE $1:
      - Poor people (1): Bissau 68,509; Other regions 60,360; Total 61,311.
      - Non-poor people (2): Bissau 231,566; Other regions 173,579; Total 190,715.
      - Ratio (2)/(1): Bissau 3.1; Other regions 2.9; Total 3.1.
    - POVERTY LINE $2:
      - Poor people (1): Bissau 113,104; Other regions 96,998; Total 100,312.
      - Non-poor people (2): Bissau 324,182; Other regions 253,282; Total 278,352.
      - Ratio (2)/(1): Bissau 2.9; Other regions 2.6; Total 2.8.
  - Lorenz curves show inequality slightly higher in Bissau.

### D. 3.1 Political and macroeconomic performance
- Political and institutional instability and endogenous shocks have significantly affected poverty.
  - Fragile governance → deficient functioning of institutions → negative chains in economic and social sectors.
  - 1998-99 war allegedly triggered by bad governance; conflict claimed thousands of lives and destroyed economic, social and administrative infrastructures.
- Consequences of armed conflict:
  - Increased poverty, deterioration of basic services, destruction of housing and infrastructure, decline in security and rule of law.
  - World Bank household perceptions survey (2005): 76.6 percent reported deterioration of living conditions compared to pre-war; urban 80.8 percent; rural 74.1 percent.
  - Real GDP deteriorated approximately 28 percent from 1998 to 1999.
  - Agricultural production fell approximately 17 percent during the same period.
  - Private sector losses assessed at approximately USD 90 million.
  - Public administration weakened; most vulnerable populations suffered greatest consequences.
- Continued instability episodes:
  - Armed confrontation in late 2000, coalition failures, dissolution of parliament in late 1999, coup d’état of September 2003 — illustrating difficulties in establishing rule of law.
  - Instability hindered implementation of economic and social policies for recovery and poverty reduction.
- Macroeconomic performance and structural constraints:
  - Weak growth linked to inadequate macroeconomic and sectoral policies over decades.
  - Corrective measures in recent years were insufficient.
  - Weak sectoral potential (agriculture, fishing, tourism) limits their contribution to growth.
  - Comparative advantages exist beyond cashew nuts, but weak private investment due to weak savings and poor business environment limits development, employment creation and external competitiveness.
- Key macroeconomic figures and trends:
  - Period 1990-2001: standard of living declined 1.3 percent per year.
  - 2002: GDP growth rate -7.2 percent.
  - Investment/GDP: 21.8 percent in 1997 → 11 percent in 2003.
  - Local savings rate has been negative from 1998 to the present (as reported).
  - Government aid for development: 74.2 percent of GDP in 1994 → nearly 29.2 percent in 2002.
  - Per capita government aid for development: 133.8 dollars in 1994 → 40.4 dollars in 2002.
- Economic structure (2004):
  - Primary agricultural sector (agriculture, livestock and fishing) contribution to GDP: 59.6 percent.
  - Industrial sector: 12 percent.
  - Services sector: 28.4 percent.
  - Exports concentrated in cashew nuts:
    - More than 93,000 tons of cashew nuts were exported in 2004 and 2005.
    - Since 2000 cashew nuts have represented nearly 90 percent of the value of the country’s exports.

*Source: INEC/ILAP and related text in the provided chapter.*

### 31.  The  state  of  the  Guinea-Bissau  economy  in  recent  years  has  been  characterized  by  a

### The state of the Guinea-Bissau economy in recent years

### Macroeconomic performance and inflation
- Real GDP growth:
  - "nearly 1 percent from 2000 to 2004"
  - "estimates for 2005 are around 3.5 percent"
- Inflation:
  - Joined WAEMU and adopted FCFA as currency, with inflation dropping from double digits to "an average of less than 4 percent"
  - "0.8 percent in 2004 and 3.4 percent in 2005"

### Public finances and fiscal indicators
- Primary current balance (percentage of GDP):
  - "-4.7 percent in 2001"
  - "-6.9 percent in 2005"
- Global budgetary balance including donations:
  - "-11.7 percent in 2001"
  - "-15.6 percent in 2003"
  - "-12.1 percent in 2005"
- Tax pressure rate:
  - "8.3 percent in 2004"
  - "11.5 percent in 2005"
  - WAEMU recommendation: "17 percent"
- Wage bill as percentage of tax revenues:
  - "111.9 percent" in 2003
  - "155.0 percent" in 2004
  - "108.9 percent" in 2005
  - Recommended maximum: "35 percent of revenues"
- Investments (percentage of GDP):
  - rose "from 9.6 percent to 14.6 percent in 2005"
  - WAEMU convergence criterion: "20 percent"
- Savings:
  - Domestic savings rate: "negative from 2001 to 2005"
  - National savings rate: "9.8 percent, 16.2 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively, in 2003, 2004 and 2005"
  - Drivers: "Transfers from emigrants were the basis for this positive national savings performance."

### External debt and debt service
- Aggregate foreign debt and service (2004):
  - Foreign debt outstanding: "540.1 billion FCFA"
  - Debt service representing "364.9 percent of GDP and 43.9 percent of exports in 2004"
  - Foreign debt service should represent "103.4 percent of total revenues excluding grants in 2004 and 43.9 percent of exports"
- Composition and arrears:
  - Foreign debt as of late 2004: "540.1 billion FCFA, of which 129.9 billion FCFA were arrears accrued vis-à-vis all foreign creditors except IDA, the ADB and the IMF."
  - Bilateral portion largest at "57.4 percent" of total; when arrears excluded multilateral share largest at "52.8 percent"
  - Paris Club arrears as of end-2004: "82.1 billion FCFA"
  - Non-Paris Club creditors arrears: "342.8 million FCFA"
  - Multilateral creditors arrears: "12.6 billion CFA"
- Paris Club debt (2003):
  - Total owed to Paris Club: "324. 4    billion FCFA in 2003"
  - Classification: "71.7 percent was pre cut-off date, 28.3    percent was classified as post cut-off date"
  - Negotiations outcome: "Italy will offer 100  percent forgiveness at the completion point," "Spain will offer comparable treatment on a case by case basis"
  - Expectation of substantial relief under HIPCI and potential additional relief under MDRI
- Non-Paris Club and other creditors:
  - Non-Paris Club creditors represent "nearly 30.2 percent of the bilateral debt"
  - Some forgiveness obtained from "Cuba and the People’s Republic of China"
  - Negotiations with other creditors, "particularly the three Arab funds, have not yet been successful"

### Domestic debt and arrears
- Preliminary domestic debt estimate: "62.7 billion CFA as of end-2003"
  - "Approximately 82 percent of this total represents domestic arrears."
- Government revenues and GDP context:
  - Government revenues: "approximately 30 billion FCFA for the year"
  - GDP: "150 billion FCFA"
  - Assessment: "the sum of 80 billion in domestic arrears seems enormous and beyond Guinea-Bissau’s absorption capacity"
- Table summary (selected years, totals in million CFA as presented):
  - Total (selected rows from table): 
    - 1999 total: "20.300,0"
    - 2000 total: "28.738,8"
    - 2001 total: "31.588"
    - 2002 total: "35.907,2"
    - 2003 total: "62.745,2"

### External sector and balance of payments
- Export coverage of imports:
  - "covered imports in 2000 and 2001 in their entirety"
  - 2002: "93.1 percent"
  - 2003: "99.8 percent"
  - 2004: "94.1 percent"
- Balance of services as share of GDP:
  - "-14.3 percent in 2003"
  - "-16.9 percent in 2004"
- External current account deficit:
  - "-14.3 percent in 2002"
  - "-10.2 percent in 2003"
  - "-15 percent in 2004"
- Overall balance:
  - "The flows of aid and the accumulation of external arrears resulted in an overall balance of payment surplus during the period 2000-2004."

### Sectoral policies: infrastructure, agriculture, fishing, environment
- Infrastructure constraints:
  - Roadway: "2755 km of which only 755 km are paved"
  - Telecommunications (yearend 2001): "7000 operational lines out of a total of only 10,500 installed lines"
  - Electricity access: "Only 5.7 percent of the population has access to electricity" (Bissau: "12.9 percent")
  - Port: "silting problems and a lack of equipment"
- Agriculture and fishing:
  - Agriculture: "excellent natural conditions" but hindered by "technical and organizational constraints, low productivity and the isolation of production sites"
  - Fishing sector: "ill structured", "artisanal nature", "lack of capacity to efficiently manage the issuance of fishing licenses", "poorly controlled exploitation" threatening marine ecosystems
- Environment:
  - Guinea-Bissau "serves as a climatic buffer against the encroachment of Sahara desertification"
  - Biodiversity protection measures "have been insufficient"
  - "Anti-environmental practices are prevalent, promoted by poverty"

### Education and poverty
- Government budget allocation to education:
  - Declined from "15 percent in 1987 to 10 percent in 1995"
  - Equivalent to "0.9 percent of GDP" (compared to "4 percent" average for sub-Saharan Africa)
  - Recent share: "11.2 percent in 2001 and 13.1 percent in 2004 (2.2 percent and 2.5 percent of GDP, respectively)"
- Enrollment rates and gender:
  - Net enrollment rate (NER) age 7–12 (1999/2000): "53.5 percent for boys and 36.3 percent for girls"
  - National totals (Table 6): Net primary enrollment rate (National Total)
    - 1999/00: "M 51.7 F 38.5 MF 45.3"
    - 2003/04: "M 58.0 F 55.9 MF 56.9"
  - Girl/boy ratio improved "from 0.7 in 1999-00 to 0.8 in 2003-05"
- Expected years of enrollment:
  - "3.6 years" nationally; regional low points: "Gabú, 1.8 ; Bafatá. 2.1 ; Oio. 3.1 ; Tombali. 3.3"
- Early childhood and school infrastructure:
  - Preschool coverage: "2.3 percent"
  - Student/classroom ratio: "64" in 1999/2000; "90" in 2001/2002
  - "Nearly 52 percent of the students in primary education are concentrated in the first and second years"
  - "Only 56.6 percent of schools offer a cycle of four classes"
- Teacher qualifications and ratios:
  - "Only 40.5 percent of teachers of basic education have diplomas"
  - Student/teacher ratio: "39"
  - Students per trained teacher: "96"
- Secondary and vocational education:
  - 1999: "27" secondary establishments (17 public and 10 private) serving "26,000 students"
  - Professional training: out of "approximately 305,000 adolescents and adults 15 to 29 years of age, 1,332 attend the 4 teacher training schools, 8,783 continue their secondary studies"
- Adult illiteracy:
  - "63.4 percent" overall; "76.2 percent for women and 47.4 percent for men"

### Health and poverty
- Malaria:
  - "More than 50% of the reasons for consultation, 15% of the causes of mortality and more than 64% of the causes of death in the pediatric ward of 'Hôpital National Simão Mendes'"
  - Treatment in health care centers: "only 38% of children suffering from simple malaria and 29% with cases of serious malaria are treated properly"
  - Mosquito net usage: "Only 5% [of children under 5] sleep under impregnated mosquito netting" (DHE-PNLP 2002)
- Vaccination:
  - Measles vaccination coverage among children under one year: "19% in 1999, and the highest rate, 82%, in 1995"
- STDs and TB:
  - STDs: "represented 9% of adult consultations in 2001, versus 4% in 2000"; "Each year 120,000 people are exposed to STDS due to unprotected sexual relations" (DHE-SIS)
  - Tuberculosis: annual incidence "estimated at 1.25 new cases with BK+", detection rate "around 85%"; incidence in 1991-01 rose "from 80 to 130/100,000 inhabitants"
  - TB–HIV interaction: "40 to 50% of patients being HIV-positive"
- HIV/AIDS:
  - PNLS 2001 estimates: HIV1 prevalence "4% among adults", HIV2 "2.7%"; "The number of persons infected with HIV would be 33,900"
  - Regional prevalence examples: Bafatá "5.8%", Bissau "4.7%", Gabú "3.9%"
  - Projection if response not improved: "HIV1 could afflict 100,000 people in 2008"
- Social and systemic consequences:
  - "Impoverishment of the persons afflicted and of their families", "an increase in AIDS orphans", "an additional burden on elderly persons", "the inability of the healthcare system to handle the growth in demand"
  - Government lacks financial resources; "populations are already so poor that they cannot bear the cost of caring for their loved ones or for children orphaned by AIDS"
  - Recommended approach: "A multidimensional approach is required to define the specific interventions for each of the aspects and sectors."
  - Need for further analysis: "All of these issues will require in-depth study in order to offer appropriate responses."

### Policy implications and priorities highlighted in the text
- Fiscal consolidation needed given large primary deficits, high wage bill relative to revenues, and low tax pressure versus WAEMU target.
- Investment and savings gap: raise investment toward WAEMU target "20 percent" of GDP and improve domestic savings.
- Debt relief and restructuring priorities:
  - Continue negotiations and obtain HIPCI relief; take advantage of MDRI "as soon as possible."
  - Address bilateral arrears, especially to Paris Club and non-Paris Club creditors.
- Structural reforms to boost export capacity and reduce current account deficits.
- Infrastructure upgrades: roads (paving), port dredging/equipment, electricity access expansion, and telecommunications improvement.
- Agricultural and fisheries sector reforms: increase technical capacity, organizational improvements, regulation and enforcement of fishing licenses to protect marine ecosystems.
- Education and health sector investments: expand access and quality (teachers, classrooms, preschool coverage), address adult illiteracy, strengthen malaria control, vaccination, TB and HIV/AIDS programs.
- Social protection and poverty-focused measures to mitigate impacts of health shocks and indebtedness.
- Analytical and programmatic work: "in-depth study" and "multidimensional approach" to design targeted interventions across sectors.

*Italic line: IMF country report excerpt provided in source content.*

### 57. Infant and infant-juvenile mortality are high. Nonetheless, a relative reduction of the infant

### _cr07339 - 57. Infant and infant-juvenile mortality are high. Nonetheless, a relative reduction of the infant

### Infant and under-5 mortality; malnutrition
- Infant mortality rate (IMR) declined from 142% in 1990 to 124% in 1999.
- Under-5 Child Mortality Rate (TMM5) declined from 246% in 1990 to 203% in 1999.
- Malnutrition among children under 5:
  - 1991: 33% malnutrition; serious malnutrition 25% (source: ILADAP/MINSAP).
  - MICS 2000: some 25% of children under t are underweight for their age, and 30% suffer from retarded growth.
  - Low-weight births have risen from 20 to 27.5%.

### Maternal mortality and maternal health services
- Maternal mortality estimates:
  - 1990: 914/100,000 live births (l.b.).
  - 1990-1996: 822/100,000 (l.b.).
  - Current official figures based on PSB monographs: 700/100,000 l.b.
  - MICS 2000 reported 348 per 100,000 l.b. but noted under-estimation due to many unrecorded home births.
- Direct causes of maternal death (percentages):
  - Hemorrhages 42%
  - Dystocias 19%
  - Infections 16%
  - Abortions 9%
  - Eclampsies 6%
- Other frequent contributors: Malaria, anemia and malnutrition.
- Service usage and assisted births:
  - CPN usage rate observed among 255,791 pregnant women: frequency 59%.
  - Assisted births: 18% in 1999; 27% in 2003 (source: DHE-SIS/MINSAP).

### Health infrastructure, human resources, and service functioning
- Access to healthcare infrastructures weak, especially in Oio and Gabú, whose rates are lower than average (35% in 2001).
- BISSAU, with more than 300,000 inhabitants, has a weak network of health centers leading to overload on the HNSM, which lacks equipment and supplies.
- The four regional hospitals have similar needs; access to complete reproductive healthcare is still weak.
- Service functioning is affected by:
  - Lack of qualified human resources.
  - Shortage of drugs.
  - Weaknesses in implementation of advance strategies.
  - Demoralization due to precarious working conditions and low pay.
  - Result: low user confidence and low rate of usage.
- Sector data limitations:
  - Situation not well-known because of lack of sufficient, adequate indicators.
  - Weak healthcare system indicators partly due to destruction of major healthcare structures and heavy flight of human resources abroad during the 1998 political-military conflict.
- Human resource distribution:
  - Ratios of various professional categories to inhabitants are high.
  - Distribution unequal with strong attraction to urban centers.
  - More than half of qualified personnel are in Bissau.
  - Great lack of specialists; some services have no specialist (source: MINSAP/DRH, 2001).

### Access to water and basic sanitation
- ILAP survey: more than 95% of people journey on average 30 minutes for access to drinking water.
- National access to drinking water: only 54.6% (piped, public faucet or fountain, protected well or cistern).
- Share using unprotected water (wells and rivers, etc.): 45.5%.
- Connection breakdown nationally:
  - 5.1% of the population connected to the public drinking water system.
  - 49.5% use public faucets or fountains, protected wells or cisterns for drinking water supply.
- Sanitation:
  - Approximately 35% of households nationally have no toilets.
  - Heavy use of poorly conceived latrines/pits representing a serious danger to public health.
  - No organized system for urban waste removal and treatment.

### Priority goals — long- and medium-term outlook (Djitu ten alignment)
- Vision components for Guinea-Bissau to 2025 include:
  - (i) well-governed country with institutions for balance and control of powers, decentralized administration valuing merit;
  - (ii) environment favorable to sustainable economic growth, good distribution of income and subregional integration;
  - (iii) well-trained human resources adapted to needs;
  - (iv) self-sufficiency in food and exporter of grains in the sub region;
  - (v) rational management of natural resources and greater environmental awareness;
  - (vi) peaceful country valuing cultural patrimony and ensuring equality of opportunities between sexes;
  - (vii) strong, economically independent country with good infrastructures;
  - (viii) democratic system stimulating citizen participation and rule of law.
- Strategic pillars (Djitu ten):
  - Governance facilitating a climate favorable to development and transparent use of public assets and human resources with accountability.
  - Good education and training of human resources.
  - Democratic, pluralist, participatory, stable system.
  - Mobilization and rational use of natural, human and financial resources for sustainable growth.
  - Construction of social and infrastructural bases for sustainable development.

### NPRSP phased approach and immediate priorities (2005–2008)
- First phase (2006-2008; post-conflict rebuilding): concentrate on measures with immediate, visible effects for poor people; key sectors: agriculture, fishing, basic infrastructures, microfinance, social services supply improvement.
- Second phase: define medium-term actions based on assessment of the first phase.
- Security sector reform focus:
  - Demobilization and improvement of living conditions in military barracks.
  - Transformation of armed forces into stakeholders for pacification and rule of law.
  - Reform to be consensual with transparent assessment and implemented with an incentive-based demobilization and reintegration effort.

### Medium- and long-term poverty and social targets
- Poverty projections and targets:
  - Poverty rate projected for 2005: 68.5% (projection of 2002 rate).
  - Reduce incidence of generalized poverty:
    - 68.5% in 2005 → 65.9% in 2008 → 64.1% in 2010 → 59.7% in 2015.
  - Reduce extreme poverty:
    - 22% in 2005 → 21.2% in 2008 → 20.6% in 2010 → 19.2% in 2015.
  - Accelerate achievement of the millennium goals for development.
  - Develop infrastructure to support production.
- Education sector targets:
  - Make basic education universal: achieve 83% in 2007 and approximately 98% in 2015 for children with current admission rate 77.8% (RPF/2000).
  - Raise ratio of children who finish primary school to 25%.
  - Improve rate of girls who finish basic education and eliminate disparities by 2015.
- Health and drinking water targets:
  - Reduce infant mortality rate:
    - 122 per thousand in 2004 → 112.9 in 2006 → 104.5 in 2008 → 79.7 deaths per thousand in 2015.
  - Reduce under-5 child mortality rate (infant-juvenile):
    - 205.2 deaths per thousand in 2004 → 189.9 in 2006 → 169.1 in 2008 → 134 deaths per thousand in 2004, 800 in 2006, 752 in 2008 to 525 in 2015. 
      - (Text contains inconsistent sequence for later figures.)
  - Substantially increase access to drinking water through connection to piped water and public fountains in cities and protected wells in villages.
- Macroeconomic and growth objectives (multiyear action plan):
  - Ensure average annual growth rate of at least 5% over the period.
  - Limit average annual inflation rate to 3%.
  - Reduce nationwide poverty incidence as stated above and extreme poverty as stated above.
  - Real GDP growth rate projected for 2006-2008 was 5% with a real growth rate per capita of approximately 2.5% per year on average (2004 SMP and Multiyear Convergence Program).
  - NPRSP macroeconomic framework expects mobilization of resources to accelerate growth.

### Underlying assumptions for the NPRSP (selected)
- Average real GDP growth rate for 2006-2008: at least 5% with demographic growth rate of approximately 2.2%; average growth rate per inhabitant established between 2% and 2.8 %.
- Assuming income inequality remains low and stable, each 1% increase in real GDP per capita would translate into at least 0.5% reduction in incidence of poverty.
- New job creation is the main transmission channel for poverty reduction.
- Average investment rate expected to generate 5% growth per year estimated at approximately 20% per year.
- Strong mobilization of external resources envisaged to strengthen capacity to mobilize internal resources.
- Transfers from emigrants assumed to continue at levels facilitating positive domestic savings to finance domestic private sector investments.
- Government intends to broaden tax base and reduce budget deficits during NPRSP implementation.
- Guinea-Bissau hopes to benefit from HIPC initiative, G8 decisions to forgive multilateral debt of poor countries, and post-conflict reconstruction support.

### Sociopolitical prerequisites and security sector reform
- Key determinant of poverty: instability and recurrence of violence (repeated coups d'etat and armed conflicts) that hinder development programs and weaken institutions and infrastructure.
- Prerequisites for NPRSP viability: fostering stability, good governance, reconciliation and peace consolidation to prevent return to armed conflicts.
- Political transition accomplishments:
  - Free and transparent legislative elections in March and April 2004.
  - Constitutional government since May 2004.
  - Presidential elections in third quarter of 2005; investiture of newly elected President on October 1.
  - Government program envisions holding local elections to complete democratic cycle.
- Reconciliation and RSS approach:
  - Foster reconciliation among former factions and social forces involved in past crises, extend to all society components.
  - Build consensus of political and social forces on vital national questions.
  - Reform of the security sector (RSS) through large consensus to rebuild lasting peace.
  - Continue demobilization and social reinsertion of former combatants to restructure armed forces based on needs and financial capacity, and to transform armed forces into a republican army subordinate to democratic institutions.
- Expected regional impact:
  - Pacification policy aims to reduce risk of return to violence and contribute to subregional stabilization, given Guinea-Bissau's role in subregional peace processes.

*IMF staff report content as provided.*

### 82.  In  positioning  itself  as  a  stakeholder  in  domestic  and  sub  regional  pacification  and

### 82.  In  positioning  itself  as  a  stakeholder  in  domestic  and  sub  regional  pacification  and  stabilization, Guinea-Bissau will learn to value the fact that it is a melting pot at the crossroads of people, civilizations and cultures in the sub region. Thus, the country will be able to serve as a source of union, a source of balance and a catalyst for the process of regional integration.

### The main stakeholders

- The role of the State
  - Missions evolved through reforms since the mide-80s that produced a substantial reduction of the State’s role and sphere of economic action.
  - Core exclusive missions remain: conceiving policies and strategies for development; producing rules and regulations for economic activities; arbitration, regulation, and fostering an environment favorable to investment.
  - Remaining administrative reform deficiencies: not yet permitted improving public efficiency in response to social demand; ensuring transparent, efficient management of human resources; keeping the wage bill and public administration staff in check; continually strengthening the capacities of the public administration.
  - The reduced State economic role should foster greater efficiency in sectors directly impacting poverty reduction: education, healthcare and infrastructures, particularly the provision of care for people with AIDS.

- The role of the private sector
  - Since economic liberalization in the 1980s, the private sector has played an ever-greater role and is the engine of economic growth despite weak private investment volumes.
  - Creation of an environment favorable to direct foreign investment expected to consolidate the private sector’s role in employment creation, technology transfer, and broadening the tax base.
  - Development of the private sector should be accompanied by strengthening the judiciary to foster respect of business rights and provide rules for commercial, industrial, and labor litigation.

- The role of civil society
  - Civil society is young, dynamic and increasingly diversified; NGOs and grassroots organizations are essential and dynamic components in the fight against poverty.
  - Comparative advantages of NGOs: strong organizational dynamic; great capacity for action and intervention; broad field knowledge; capacity to conceive and implement context-appropriate strategies; capital of confidence and collaboration with other civil society components.
  - Despite weaknesses from youth and expansion insufficiencies, NGOs have been key government partners in basic intervention sectors and poverty reduction and will be involved in NPRSP implementation.
  - Academic and research institutions, intellectuals, opinion leaders and the media are identified as key stakeholders to foster good governance supporting effective poverty reduction.

- The role of the populations
  - Populations, while targets of poverty reduction, have a central role in strategy implementation.
  - Participatory processes show populations aware of problems and appropriate solutions; participation in execution will be based on ownership of solutions.
  - Population roles include execution, management and maintenance of infrastructures; internalization of social changes from interventions in education, healthcare and HIV/AIDS; consolidation and oversight of good governance.

### Operational strategies and action plans (NPRSP 2005-2008)

- Strategic pillars (paragraph 87)
  - The NPRSP for 2005-2008 is articulated around four main pillars:
    - 1) modernizing the public administration, strengthening governance, and ensuring macroeconomic stability;
    - 2) fostering economic growth and job creation;
    - 3) increasing access to social services and basic infrastructure;
    - 4) improving the living conditions of vulnerable groups.

- Pillar 1: Governance, public administration modernization, and macroeconomic stability (paragraphs 88, 93–94)
  - Focus areas and measures:
    - Improve efficiency in public administration.
    - Sanction practices of misconduct and graft.
    - Increase citizen participation in public affairs.
    - Reform the justice system, civil service and the security sector.
    - Improve mechanisms for economic and financial management of public resources.
    - Create a legal framework for decentralization and local development.
    - Establish a framework conducive to rule of law, respect for democracy, good governance, and submission of all stakeholders (particularly the armed forces) to the Constitution and laws.
  - Structural transformation goals:
    - Diversify the economy through promotion of other exportable goods.
    - Increase agricultural productivity.
    - Modernize small-scale fishing.
    - Improve product quality and conservation.
    - Promote processing of local products and tourism.

- Pillar 2: Accelerating economic growth (paragraphs 89, 95–96)
  - Objectives and sectoral focuses:
    - Create conditions for economic recovery after military crisis and political instability.
    - Position the private sector as the main actor, prioritizing:
      - Agro-industry: incite private sector to transform cashew nuts and fruits locally and for export.
      - Livestock: creation of short-cycle species.
      - Fishing: favor small-scale fisheries with modernization of equipment, organization of the industry, creation of structures for conservation of fishery products.
      - Tourism.
    - Enhance job creation and increased income.
    - Broaden the tax base to impact Government fiscal revenues.
    - Use resources and anticipated HIPC assistance to support social and poverty reduction programs.
    - Rehabilitate basic economic infrastructures, particularly transportation and communication.
  - Macroeconomic program context:
    - Suspension of the PRGF program led to short-term programs and abandoning the three-year program, but Government anticipates post-conflict status will enable a new three-year agreement with IMF and World Bank supported by the PRGF.
    - Government hopes to achieve a real annual GDP growth rate of 5% at minimum with partners’ support.

- Pillar 3: Increasing access to social services and infrastructure (paragraph 90)
  - Implement programs to directly improve poor people’s access to basic social services and assess natural potential to improve living conditions.
  - Ensure equitable access to social services.

- Pillar 4: Improving living conditions of vulnerable groups (paragraph 91)
  - Goals and targeted interventions:
    - Reduce disparities between the sexes and foster social equality.
    - Halt intergenerational transmission of poverty via direct transfers to vulnerable populations.
    - Address consequences of disease, especially AIDS, which impoverishes sufferers and families.
    - Target AIDS orphans, persons suffering from deficiency, the elderly, women (particularly female heads of households) with actions addressing illiteracy, lack of professional training, early marriage, poor access to reproductive healthcare.
    - Address victims of mines and other explosives, noting land and fishing zones used by the poorest were affected by landmines and other explosive devices; pursue landmine removal as essential.

- MDG acceleration and PIP revision (paragraph 92)
  - Government committed to preparing a specific and effective implementation plan for the MDGs as recommended in Resolution 22 of the UN General Assembly in September 2005.
  - Seek UN System support to strengthen capacities and prepare a national MDG implementation plan.
  - Revise the public investment program (PIP) to reflect costing performed during this process.
  - Prioritize MDG achievement considering absorption capacity; financing requirements for accelerated MDG implementation will be submitted to development partners.

### Strengthen governance, modernize public administration and ensure macroeconomic stability (Section 5.1 and subsections)

- Governance and macroeconomic stability — context and targets (paragraphs 93–96)
  - Post-conflict context requires creation of basic conditions.
  - Economic performance cited:
    - –7.1% decline in activity in 2002.
    - Real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2004.
    - Real GDP growth of 3.5% in 2005.
  - Government envisages a reasonable 5% average growth rate over the NPRSP implementation period.
  - Planned structural transformation aims at economic competitiveness and transparent, efficient government to foster macroeconomic stability.

- Medium-term economic growth drivers (paragraph 94)
  - Sector development should be accompanied by sectoral policy strategies promoting investments, exports and employment under a healthy macroeconomic framework.
  - Low inflation from prudent macroeconomic policies intended to preserve incomes and purchasing power, and reinforce investor confidence.
  - Government commitment to reducing fiscal and external deficits and improving export capacity and diversification of agricultural exports and small-scale fishing.

- Growth prerequisites (paragraph 96)
  - Achieving 5% real annual GDP growth requires:
    - (i) increasing government aid for development and direct foreign investments;
    - (ii) improving the contribution of the agro-industrial sector through diversification and modernization, especially cashews and small-scale fishing products, and processing via SMEs.

- Consumption and savings dynamics (paragraph 97)
  - Final consumption of administrations should be monitored focusing on results improving quantity and quality of public services and public administration functioning.
  - Private consumption will increase faster than economic growth.
  - Income increases should lead households to gradually build savings that could be channeled to the financial and microfinance sector.

- Medium-term tax and budget policy (paragraph 98)
  - Macroeconomic stability is the Government’s first medium-term policy priority, requiring:
    - (i) effective implementation of budgetary policy in line with WAEMU norms;
    - (ii) achieving and maintaining convergence criteria under WAEMU multilateral supervision;
    - (iii) implementing fiscal reforms to broaden the tax base, primarily through rehabilitation of private sector and small businesses, and transition from the General Sales Tax (GST) to the VAT (Value Added Tax) to increase the tax-to-GDP ratio from the current rate of 10% to 17% as in other WAEMU member countries;
    - (iv) creation of a large taxpayer unit under the Tax Department (DGCI) to simplify SME taxation and improve revenue collection;
    - (v) intensify and spark diffusion of the WAEMU accounting system (SYSCOA) to diminish random taxation of enterprises without accounting systems;
    - (vi) installation of a maritime surveillance device to increase non-tax revenues.

- Public expenditure policy (paragraph 99)
  - Government will:
    - (i) implement a policy of limiting current spending to generate primary fiscal surpluses, emphasizing social sector spending primarily through HIPC resources;
    - (ii) improve the pay system in the public sector by implementing a new and more balanced pay rates;
    - (iii) downsize the public sector through a census of the public administration and retrenchment of ‘ghost’ and redundant workers to bring the wage bill below the ratio of 35% of tax revenues, as set forth in the Convergence, Growth and Solidarity Pact of WAEMU;
    - (iv) introduce a transparent computerized payroll management system;
    - (iv) increase the public investment program at levels consistent with poverty reduction priorities and higher productivity for the economy and private sector;
    - (v) ensure domestic arrears do not accrue at levels harming private sector functioning.
  - Investment trajectory:
    - Level of investment will increase significantly in 2006 as compared to the average for the past 7 years, and then will remain flat for the remaining years covered by the NPRSP.

- Foreign and domestic debt management (paragraphs 100–101)
  - Foreign debt management improvements:
    - (i) creation of a debt monitoring committee;
    - (ii) strengthening the External Debt Unit in human and material resources.
  - Hopes and strategies:
    - Government expects HIPC treatment to make debt sustainable and allow benefiting from significant support for financing the poverty reduction strategy.
    - Forgiveness of multilateral debt following G8 decision ratified by IMF and World Bank General Assemblies is a major change; Guinea-Bissau intends to implement measures to reap benefits as soon as possible.
    - Engage non-Paris Club partners to agree on similar terms as Paris Club for treatment of their debt.
  - Domestic debt treatment:
    - Government will carry out an audit to record all arrears through end of 2005.
    - Upon audit completion, transform outstanding arrears into formal debt and establish a payment plan aiming to eliminate all arrears.
    - Seek financing from domestic (sub-regional) and external partners while negotiating potential discounts and new repayment terms.
    - Recognizes need to strengthen human and institutional capacities for debt management; better budget execution and obedience of procurement and borrowing rules necessary to control indebtedness.

*Source: _cr07339 - 82.  In  positioning  itself  as  a  stakeholder  in  domestic  and  sub  regional  pacification  and  stabilization, PDF chapter content.*

### 102.     The economy’s dependence on the exterior is a concern for the Government. This situation

### _cr07339 - 102.     The economy’s dependence on the exterior is a concern for the Government. This situation

### External dependence, trade balance, and government intentions
- The economy’s dependence on the exterior will persist at least over the medium-term due to structural difficulties deriving to a large extent from the trade balance deficit.
- The trade balance deficit will be aggravated by the increase of import activities under the government investments related to the NPRSP.
- Government intentions:
  - develop small-scale fishing by providing training and modern equipment for small-scale fishermen, better organize industries and provide export-oriented support for product conservation and for sanitary and laboratory control;
  - train large-scale cashew nuts producers (ponteiros) and small cashew growers in the use of new techniques to increase the per hectare yield and improve the quality of the nuts; it is expected that the level of production of cashew nuts will reach during this period an annual average of 125,000 tons, of which 24% will be processed and exported locally by 2007;
  - implement structural reforms to strengthen institutional and human capacities necessary for attracting the much needed financial flows through the HIPC and the MDRI initiatives.

### Foreign trade perspectives and current account
- Perspectives for foreign trade described as promising.
- Exports expected to benefit from better training of the various operators in the export chain.
- Imports expected to slightly increase due additional investments in basic and social infrastructure.
- These developments are expected to gradually improve the current account balance.
- Agriculture and fisheries (given a predominantly rural economy) are expected to drive exports and gradually lead a positive resource balance.

### Monetary and financial sector policy
- Guinea-Bissau benefited from adhesion to the WAEMU through adopting the CFA franc (a stable, convertible currency).
- Government intends to:
  - pursue the implementation of a prudent monetary policy in harmony with the WAEMU goals;
  - create the conditions appropriate for the diversification of the banking sector;
  - diversify export products to reduce vulnerability to external shocks deriving from the fluctuation of World prices of raw cashew nuts.

### Structural reforms (2006-08 priorities)
- During the period 2006-08, the Government will continue to implement structural reforms in particular in:
  - taxation: create a Large Taxpayer Unit and strengthen the taxpayer registration system;
  - transparent expenditure management: improve budget execution, strengthen financial control and the external control of the Court of Accounts;
  - decentralize public finance: prepare, approve and implement local budgets;
  - manage the foreign public debt: create a National Foreign Debt Monitoring Committee;
  - manage the domestic debt: audit the domestic debt, convert past due amounts into a formal debt, establish an order of priority among the different types of creditors, build human and institutional debt management capacities, raise awareness for compliance with procurement and borrowing rules;
  - Demobilization, Reintegration and Reinsertion Program (PDRRI): pursue and consolidate the reintegrating phase for demobilized and reintegrated war veterans;
  - privatize government-owned enterprises and/or partially sell government-owned assets;
  - develop the private sector; eliminate bureaucratic and administrative barriers for doing business in strategic areas such as fish, cashews, fruits, etc.;
  - create an economic development fund.
- Civil service reform measures to be taken:
  - remove former civil servants and ‘ghost workers’ from the payroll;
  - establish a computerized census system and create a central payroll database;
  - computerize the payroll held at he Ministry of Finances and harmonize it with the one managed by the Ministry of Labor, and issue monthly wage statements for workers;
  - identify and eliminate redundant civil servants, revise hiring policies and prepare a hiring and redeployment program;
  - prepare a medium-term plan to build capacities; create a school for training new civil servants and for continued education;
  - privatize some government agencies.

### Private sector recovery and support strategy
- Government policy to support and develop the private sector to recover from losses during the 1998-99 conflict.
- Strategy components:
  - payment of domestic arrears;
  - revision of the investment code to be more simple and flexible in line with government commitments under WAEMU;
  - build capacity at the General Directorate of the Public Investment Program (DGPIP) by establishing a support and monitoring system for businesses;
  - effectively exploit opportunities offered by regional integration, including NEPAD, and cooperation with peer countries;
  - promote and diversify SMEs (more focused on agribusiness) and develop a lending program for them;
  - adopt a tax incentive and tax policy system that helps small enterprises and fosters foreign direct investment;
  - allocate public investments in areas that would allow increasing productivity in the private sector.

### Modernizing public administration and building capacities
- Reform goals: discharge the State from productive and business activities; redesign structure and personnel based on the State’s real needs and financial capabilities; improve efficiency of public services.
- Strategic objectives:
  - redefine and redesign the functions of the State’s administrative apparatus by adjusting its role to accomplish the public-service missions it was assigned;
  - reverse the current job creation structure by lowering the role of the State and significantly increasing the role of private initiative in creating and strengthening jobs;
  - build capacity and improve effectiveness within the public administration;
  - decentralize and deconcentrate the public administration by bringing public services at the local level through effective participation of citizens.
- Central themes for achieving objectives:
  - carrying out detailed legislative reform;
  - reforming and strengthening institutional;
  - building capacity for oversight and control institutions;
  - building human resources capacities;
  - building analysis and macroeconomic forecasting capacities;
  - building policy-formulation and strategic-planning capacities;
  - reforming the legal and institutional strategic planning framework;
  - improving aid coordination and international cooperation;
  - promoting interconnection between the public and private sectors;
  - reorganizing and strengthening the national statistics system.

### Strengthening rule of law and judiciary; security sector reform
- Main judiciary and rule-of-law interventions:
  - institutional reform to make an effective and viable judiciary system operating in full compliance with the separation of powers and a legal system aligned with the country’s own situation;
  - build human resource capacities and provide equipments necessary to administer justice properly;
  - promote knowledge of the law, and access to justice;
  - build capacity for Members of Parliament (MPs);
  - create an environment that fosters the development of a multiparty system.
- Security sector reform plans to improve political stability:
  - rehabilitate the headquarter of the army Joint Chief of Staff;
  - build capacity in human resources and equipment at the Ministry of Defense;
  - perform a study to evaluate and formulate a national security sector reform strategy;
  - establish a cooperation and coordination system among the different security and law-enforcement agencies (armed forces and police), primarily through the National Justice and Security Council, which has already been created.

### Decentralization and social consensus-building
- Decentralization to be implemented at political, administrative and economic levels to involve populations in local affairs, promote local development, fight poverty, and preserve social peace.
- Decentralization program focus:
  - social mobilization and management of information for a national consensus around decentralization;
  - strengthening civil society and the role of women;
  - creating a legal framework for decentralization;
  - mobilizing and managing human, physical and financial resources.
- Main objectives of decentralization:
  - build the institutional capacity of the various components of civil society;
  - sustain institutions that can play the role of intermediaries with NGOs, associations, social groups, the State and international partners;
  - develop efficiency by entrenching professionalism through high-quality human resources.
- Social dialogue necessities:
  - create and sustain appropriate legal framework for developing social consensus-building and establish a permanent consultation mechanism that promotes peace in social and business relationships;
  - disseminate the legislation on social consensus-building;
  - build capacity in labor-management dialogue within the Government, organizations of employers, and trade unions.

### Promote economic growth and job creation — business climate
- Developing the private sector is central for promoting rapid and sustained growth; the Government recognizes the private sector as the engine of growth and poverty reduction.
- The PRDSP (project to rehabilitate and develop the private sector) objective: improve competitiveness of local industries and increase productivity for smooth integration in WAEMU.
- Main areas of intervention: infrastructure, privatization, improving the business environment, and reforming the judicial system.
- Growth to benefit from reform of infrastructure, telecommunication, port and airport.
- Emphasis on disengagement of the State from economic activities and making business laws consistent with OHADA.
- Implementation includes pursuing privatization of government-owned enterprises to enhance economic growth and social development.

### PRDSP pilot program and capital rebuilding
- PRDSP includes a pilot program to rebuild capital in the current post-conflict context.
- Pilot program principles:
  - assistance to private enterprises initially owned by the Government or being privatized/liquidated or private SMEs;
  - support for enterprises that attract supplemental private investment;
  - selection by investors in viable enterprises.
- The pilot aims to avoid subsidizing non-viable government-owned enterprises and ensure assistance is aligned with private business principles.
- Given current lack of capital in the private sector, the USD 2 million made available under the program to support the private sector will be sufficient for the pilot phase.
- After successful pilot implementation, the Government will raise additional funds to create an Economic Promotion Fund (lending instrument).

### Business costs, competitiveness, and judicial reform
- As the project is implemented, the cost of doing business in Guinea-Bissau should be lowered to increase competitiveness and attract more domestic and foreign investments, thereby increasing sustainable jobs and reducing poverty.
- Reform will standardize the judicial system and launch legal and judicial framework reform for business as part of OHADA requirements.

### Stimulating productive sectors, agriculture, and budget priorities
- Policy directives to address the economic crisis:
  - effective implementation of a liberalization policy;
  - improved responsibility sharing among development stakeholders;
  - gradual disengagement of the State and promotion of the private sector;
  - redefinition of jurisdictions of public services and rural institutions in accordance with principles of effective administrative decentralization.
- Budgetary requirements:
  - budgetary shares for agriculture, livestock and must initially be at least doubled compared to the current amount, and progressively increased to at least 20% of the budget by 2008.
- Strategic priorities for investments and programs to improve food security and reduce poverty:
  - intensify grain production, particularly rice, by research and reproduction of seeds, rehabilitation, development and maintenance of fresh- and salt-water rice paddies;
  - develop base-level counseling/outreach and technical training for producers and associations of farmers;
  - develop exports;
  - improve road and river infrastructures;
  - bolster the private sector’s organization and initiatives;
  - intensify and modernize small-scale fishing and make stakeholders in the fisheries sector accountable.

### Agrarian policy and food security
- Agrarian sector policy objectives:
  - ensuring food security;
  - increasing and diversify agricultural exports;
  - rationally managing and preserving agricultural, forest and pastoral resources;
  - improving the lifestyle of rural populations.
- Ensuring food security commitments:
  - availability of food products throughout the entire country all year long;
  - promoting creation and distribution of income so the poor have access to sufficient quantities of quality food at all times;
  - improve storage and preservation conditions for grains, fresh fish and meat products.
- Emphasized strategies:
  - diversify the productive base;
  - develop income-generating activities;
  - improve competitiveness, productivity and sales of local food products, including livestock products;
  - diversify farm exports through products such as fruits and vegetables;
  - promote greater added value for cashew nuts through kernel processing.

### Cashew sector strategy and export diversification
- Cashews represent a comparative advantage and remain essential for rural incomes, but dependence on raw cashew nuts should be avoided by diversifying farm exports (mangos, citrus, wild fruits, treated wood, etc.).
- Government strategy points for cashews and related sectors:
  - create a consensus-building and marketing policy management framework for cashews among producers, sellers and the Government;
  - bring the production areas out of isolation;
  - provide loans to operators in the cashew chain;
  - jointly develop fruit industries, including mangos, citrus and fruit from the forest;
  - support development of upstream industry, with private firms and SMEs processing products using appropriate machinery;
  - build storage capacities with refrigeration facilities and produce packaging materials.

*Italic: IMF staff report content as provided in the source document.*

### 127.      Rationally  manage  and  preserve  agricultural,  forest  and  pastoral  resources.  This  objective

### Rationally manage and preserve agricultural, forest and pastoral resources. This objective

### Natural-resources management and awareness
- Objective: maintain the balance of the national natural resources capital, including forests, the earth, water and biodiversity, through an acceptable level of use and by implementing appropriate preservation and conservation programs.
- Government intends to:
  - develop inter-sectorization among the different partners.
  - the Ministry of Agriculture will develop a communication capacity to prepare and disseminate information, technical messages and educational materials that promote awareness, training and the mobilization of all stakeholders, and the rural communities in particular.

### New forest policy and forest-use measures
- Rationale: substantial changes introduced by the Land Act generated the necessity of developing a new forest policy that will provide greater economic and financial incentives for rural communities (villages) in the use, distribution and management of forest resources.
- Forest-use streamlining measures:
  - (i) assessing and planning forest resources;
  - (ii) effectively implementing taxes (strengthening control mechanisms);
  - (iii) revising taxes on cutting down species of trees with high demand, and export taxes to cover the costs of reforestation and maintaining new forest plantings, and to encourage local processing of wood;
  - (iv) improving forest management by allocating resources to reforestation programs that will help hire rural workers or rural communities;
  - (v) regulating and controlling wood charcoal exports and promoting the use of alternative energy sources;
  - (vi) developing pilot community forest fire management programs to fight wild fires;
  - (vii) updating forest inventories and implementing agricultural ecological zoning;
  - (vii) promoting community management systems.

### Improving rural living standards
- Development of the rural sector must go hand in hand with raising standard of living in areas of health, education, housing, water resources for agriculture, sanitation, and recreation activities.
- The Ministry of Agriculture will study the best way to carry out these programs with other ministries and development partners (many are not the Ministry’s direct responsibility).

### Livestock-sector medium-term programs
- Programs include actions in health, food and improving breeding of short-cycle animals to quickly increase production:
  - (i) improving healthcare in the country;
  - (ii) availing means to fight diseases that deplete herds;
  - (iii) improving animal feed (in conjunction with programs to increase corn production);
  - (iv) encouraging the production of short-cycle animals to contribute to increasing animal products in the diet of rural and urban populations, which would help to reduce poverty and improve quality of life.
- Emphasis on the necessity of greater involvement of beneficiaries, and women in particular, given their important role in short-cycle animal production, and greater accountability of the private sector in livestock activities, particularly in marketing and processing.

### State withdrawal and privatization in animal production
- State will withdraw from productive activities in the animal production sector.
- Beginning of the privatization of some veterinary services and veterinary pharmacies is planned for Bissau and in the interior of country.

### Research, feeding, and breed-improvement measures
- Experiments and pilot programs:
  - experiments with feeding livestock using natural pastures and agricultural byproducts on a complementary basis;
  - wider use of fodder and manure stables, especially in eastern and Northern provinces (based on pilot results).
- Necessary actions:
  - (i) genetically improve local breeds by selecting animals with good genetic potential;
  - (ii) introduce simple and appropriate short-cycle animal production techniques;
  - (iii) introduce improved breeds into villages and outlying urban areas;
  - (iv) implement a health protection program;
  - (v) develop a lending system adapted to purchasing improved animals and animal feed.

### National forestry policy: preservation, accountability, and enforcement
- Policy goals: preserve existing potential and socioecological balances, meet population needs, and make populations accountable for resource management.
- Urgent actions:
  - (i) train, raise the awareness of and organize the populations to define the natural environment through rational balanced use and monitoring of anti-environmental practices;
  - (ii) introduce, strengthen and implement the penalty system for environmental violations for: failing to have formal licenses for using natural resources, failing to comply with established standards and procedures, failing to comply with usage quotas, failing to observe the ban on the use of protected species and poaching periods, as well as the violation of certain prohibited sectors;
  - (iii) clearly identify authority and delegate authority to the regional and local administrative authorities in their jurisdiction for effective administration.

### Sahelian role and subregional environmental strategy
- Guinea-Bissau is a Sahelian country and serves as a climatic buffer against the advance of Sahara desert to countries such as the Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Ghana, etc.
- Strategic and protective environmental policies must be adopted in the context of subregional integration to avoid spillover costs that could jeopardize the subregional ecological balance.

### Revitalizing extra-agricultural activities and agricultural stores
- Revitalize extra-agricultural activities to improve agricultural performance and reduce poverty by increasing revenue:
  - professionalize youth by revitalizing local trade and developing small-scale fishing;
  - revitalize agricultural stores to decrease the amount of time families are short of food, develop farm fairs and markets and increase producer capacities.
- Agricultural stores, managed by rural women’s associations, will:
  - use production surpluses (rice, millet, and commercial products such as cashews, palm oil, honey, wax and groundnuts) to foster greater food security in villages and stimulate sales on regional and central markets;
  - enable farmers to become involved in setting farm prices and increase political leeway;
  - permit purchase of small agricultural equipment in villages (machetes, hoes, scythes, etc.), horticultural seeds and other inputs to improve productivity.
- Sales of inputs will enable stores to acquire new inventory for the following year.
- Entry of such stores in the cashew marketing system will enable farmers to determine the selling price of cashews directly while protecting them from current speculation.

### Rural youth and microlending for service activities
- Enable rural youth to develop regular community service activities.
- Rural youth of both genders will benefit from access using the microlending system to equipment to build or upgrade shops in areas such as mechanics, carpentry, civil construction, locks, woodwork, radio repair, dry cleaning, tailoring, etc., enabling them to generate financial resources and incentivize staying in rural areas.
- Regular training courses will ensure improved quality of services to meet local demand.

### Fishing sector strategic themes
- Central themes for improving fishing:
  - (i) reform to clarify the State’s roles and the duties and authority of those involved in the fisheries sector;
  - (ii) building human resources capacities to create a critical mass of professionals in each sector of intervention, including:
    - implementing local training organizations in monitoring and research;
    - raising the professional level of personnel, especially fishermen-sailors on fishing boats, workers in boat repair shops, supervisory workers and fisheries observers;
    - raising managers’ level so they can be professionally promoted to assume managerial duties (captain, foreman and mechanic), particularly for personnel assigned to industrial fishing vessels that fly the Guinean flag, and fish processing industries (cold sector) and in preservation;
    - training specialized managers, scientific personnel, administrative managers, sector business managers, and boat repair specialists.

### Forestry and environment policy program approach (six priority themes)
- The strategy adopts a program approach centered on six priority central themes:
  - (i) real estate ownership: statutory definition of forest areas, regardless of their real estate status and boundaries;
  - (ii) implementation of a master forest development plan, done on a community, participatory and decentralized basis for the rural communities;
  - (iii) decrease pressure on forests from the intensification of agriculture (agroforests) and livestock;
  - (iv) better management of forests to preserve them, increase their value and regenerate them;
  - (v) forest and pastoral training at various levels;
  - (vi) a long-term research program on fragile tropical ecosystems.

### National environmental management policy and programs
- Policy seeks to contribute to sustainable socioeconomic development and assist in finding solutions to:
  - ensure food security;
  - eradicate poverty;
  - control pollution and clean up the environment;
  - preserve natural resources and control the advance of desertification;
  - minimize anthropic impacts that influence climate change.
- Programs to implement this policy:
  - (i) promote the development of the national territory;
  - (ii) ensure food security and supply surplus products to the market, in sufficient quality and quantity, through sustainable and lasting natural resources management;
  - (iii) protect, preserve and improve the population’s quality of life by fighting hunger, disease and illiteracy;
  - (iv) develop national capacities for technology, science and finance at different levels - local, national, regional and international;
  - (v) promote the participation of every component and organization of society in environmental management and protection;
  - (vi) promote the creation of alternative jobs in the area of environmental protection and safeguarding natural resources;
  - (vii) contribute actively to developing subregional and international cooperation in the area of environmental management.

### Basic infrastructure development (cornerstone for poverty reduction)
- Infrastructure is the structure on which productive and social sector approaches are based; insufficient or deficient preservation of infrastructures is identified as the greatest obstacle to improving the country’s potential and human development.
- Key actions to increase mobility through improved transportation infrastructures:
  - (i) identify and select key road networks and in priority those interconnecting regional capital cities, sea and ports and river port access;
  - (ii) upgrade and maintain rural roads to access production areas by establishing road rehabilitation and maintenance programs with the participation of local community (e.g Buba Model) by promoting small- and medium-sized enterprises, and local consulting and control firms;
  - (iii) upgrade and maintain roads that connect with neighboring countries, especially Senegal and Guinea, in accordance with the international transportation plans adopted by the subregional organizations (WAEMU and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS));
  - (iv) coordinate and connect the development of the road network with the maritime and river transportation systems to assure a continuous flow in the traffic for shipping goods to markets and export centers;
  - v) improve road safety.

### Ports, aviation, telecommunications, and power priorities
- Ports priorities:
  - (i) improve maritime shipping safety by dredging the ports and canals, signage, beaconing, and acquiring more appropriate communication and information equipment and lighting the wharf;
  - (ii) begin the process of concession or private management for the ports;
  - (iii) create synergies between ocean and river shipping with surface shipping;
  - (iv) create conditions for storing and preserving goods (warehouses and refrigerators) in the inland ports;
  - (v) establish a Master Plan to develop the national port system;
  - (vi) strengthen the intervention agencies in the sector.
- Aviation priorities:
  - (i) renovate the “Bissalanca” airport infrastructure to provide international air traffic and to create conditions for increased private;
  - (ii) ensure the safety of air traffic, by meeting the requirements of the National Civil Aviation Safety and Control Authority (ASECNA).
- Telecommunications priorities:
  - (i) promote the creation and strengthening of a statutory and legal framework for free competition;
  - (ii) liberalize the various segments, and in particular cellular telephones, the Internet, import of equipment, and gradually limit residual exclusivity;
  - (iii) cover the entire country in urban areas with a population equal to or greater than 500 inhabitants.
- Power facilities strategy:
  - (i) improving the generation , distribution and management of electricity by rehabilitating the infrastructure, promoting a new rate system with the introduction of prepayment;
  - ii) promoting and developing other sources of renewable energy, such as solar and wind, or alternatively, through research activities to develop a domestic technological capability based on the use of local energy resources
  - iii) increasing national coverage;
  - (iv) promoting the reform and institutional development of the sector by adopting a national electrification plan that takes national and subregional potentials into account.

### Increase access to social services and basic infrastructure — Education and training
- Education objectives:
  - (i) improve access and success in mandatory and free primary education by 2015 for all children, with special attention paid to girls and children from the poorest families;
  - (ii) improve all aspects of the quality of education;
  - (iii) eliminate the gender disparities in primary and secondary education beginning in 2005 and establish gender equality by 2015;
  - (iv) develop education for young children;
  - (v) increase adult literacy by 50%, in particular for women, by 2015, and give adults equitable access to basic and continuing education programs.
- Strategic programs for expanding access to education:
  - (i) fostering universal basic education;
  - (ii) building, rehabilitating, outfitting and maintaining classrooms, by progressively balancing supply and demand;
  - (iii) providing school cafeterias;
  - (iv) creating incentives for the best students;
  - (v) promoting and encouraging partnerships with several social stakeholders: parents, communities, local associations and NGOs to promote education and schooling for girls.
- Strategic programs to improve quality of education:
  - (i) promoting continuing education and in-service training for teachers, inspectors and coordinators;
  - (ii) reformulating the initial and continuing education curriculum for teachers and programs, by adapting them to the cross-cutting nature of gender, education for peace and tolerance, preventive health and environmental education;
  - (iii) support for improving the quality, production and distribution of textbooks, including other teaching aids such as exercise workbooks for students and orientation guides for teachers;
  - (iv) creating sustainable conditions to provide educational materials to students on a permanent basis;
  - (v) support to improve materials, methods and techniques for teaching Portuguese as a non-native language;
  - (vi) strengthening teacher training for teachers of the Portuguese language;
  - (vii) creating and implementing awareness and mobilization programs for young children;
  - (viii) supporting innovative programs to develop basic education at the NGO, private and community organization levels in methodologies that improve classroom conditions, school management, schooling for young girls and education for children and preschool;
  - (ix) redesigning education for young children in a cross-cutting perspective: development, protection and education.

*Source: _cr07339 - 127. Rationally manage and preserve agricultural, forest and pastoral resources. This objective*

### 153.     The   following   strategic   programs   are   indicated   for   improving   equity:   (i)   promoting

### _cr07339 - 153–172

### Improving equity (education)
- Strategic programs to improve equity:
  - (i) promoting schooling and education for girls;
  - (ii) providing equal opportunities for children of both sexes;
  - (iii) implementing awareness, and community social mobilization programs for parents and educators, girls for changing mentality and attitude toward schooling for girls;
  - (iv) giving children with minor handicaps the opportunity to go to school and be treated appropriately;
  - (v) promoting the hiring of at least 40% female teachers newly hired;
  - (vi) promoting the creation of systems to make female labor easier, especially in rural areas;
  - (vii) creating literacy centers and reception centers for young children.

### Strengthening management (education sector)
- Strategic programs to strengthen management:
  - (i) improving working conditions and wages with special attention paid to isolation compensation for teachers assigned to the most remote areas;
  - (ii) improving financial management and human resources procedures;
  - (iii) making operational an information system to plan and manage the education sector on a decentralized basis;
  - (iv) training personnel with the purpose of: eliminating distortions by also paying attention to the gender issue, improving worker performance, making services more dynamic and efficient, building the Ministry of Education’s institutional capacity;
  - (v) creating conditions for a genuine decentralization and deconcentration of services, while also fostering an effective communication and information system;
  - (vi) performing sector studies and studies to evaluate educational programs to obtain reliable data that support the preparation of an action plan for the educational sector;
  - (vii) assisting with the implementation of the National Education for All Program and other education-related programs in the context of poverty reduction.

### Ensuring qualified education for youth (vocational and community education)
- Strategic programs:
  - (i) revising the vocational education policy;
  - (ii) diversifying vocational educational programs in accordance with local and national development priorities, by fostering equal training opportunities for the sexes;
  - (iii) expanding the network of community vocational education centers by placing priority on short-term training for youth and adults;
  - (iv) retraining of traditional educators for a geographically more comprehensive educational system so that the poorest areas may benefit from it;
  - (v) promoting a dynamic partnership with the private sector;
  - (vi) liaising between vocational education and education for peace, tolerance, preventive health and environmental education;
  - (vii) for underprivileged youth and adults, providing basic education and vocational education that is appropriate for their personal needs and the socioeconomic circumstances of the area.

### Health and nutrition — strategic framing and priorities
- Context and guiding principles:
  - The National Health Development Program (PNDS) is a comprehensive framework contributing to fighting poverty.
  - National policy principles include: (i) strengthening primary health care through a minimum package of activities; (ii) effectively involving communities in financing, management and decision-making for health issues and programs; (iii) greater access to health services through well-designed strategies; (iv) equitably distributing human, physical and financial resources; (v) improving operation and quality of health services; (vi) gradually decentralizing management; (vii) developing and implementing a policy for human resources, including a training plan and comprehensive strategies to improve working conditions; (viii) developing better intersector cooperation and strengthening the Information, Education and Communication (IEC) strategy.
- Sector vision:
  - Health sector objectives: to "contribute to improving the socioeconomic status of the people of Guinea-Bissau." Strengthening the national health system at every level, including service delivery and management organizations, to appropriately respond to population needs.

### Primary health care service coverage and disease control strategies
- Strategies to increase coverage and improve quality of primary health care with emphasis on reducing child-mother mortality:
  - (i) consider vulnerability of children and pregnant women, improve treatment quality for malaria, implement the Malaria Strategic Plan as part of the “Roll Back Malaria” (RBM) Initiative and the accelerated strategy for child development and survival;
  - (ii) identify and implement strategies to build capacities in emergency and basic obstetric care at the primary level and referral hospitals through RH;
  - (iii) adopt appropriate strategies to redistribute, motivate and place managers, with priority on the periphery.
- Intensification of fight against HIV/AIDS/STDs, malaria and tuberculosis:
  - Concentrate on: (i) building institutional capacity in resource management and improving access to drugs, including ARVs; (ii) disseminating knowledge on disease prevention through intersector and IEC activities for behavior change.
  - Cross-cutting HIV/AIDS actions required: studies and steps to foster the link between prevention and treatment and access to care including outpatient treatment; provision of care to return people with AIDS to work and develop income-generating activities; provision of care for AIDS orphans; accelerated training for health care workers; including the gender dimension; training of teachers with a strong HIV/AIDS prevention component.
  - Essential investments in the health sector (controlling HIV/AIDS, equipment, operation of health facilities, provision of care for AIDS patients) must be considered in the context of a specific program.

### Priority intervention programs for 2005-08 (health)
- Identified priority interventions for the 2005-08 period:
  - (i) implement a set of priority and health services interventions (MPA) at peripheral level (HS, Advanced Strategy) and referral areas (RH, NH), considering main causes of morbidity and mortality among the most disadvantaged;
  - (ii) provide health establishments with necessary and appropriate infrastructure, equipment and materials, including drugs, vaccines and reagents, and necessary qualified human resources to ensure quality care;
  - (iii) carry out specific interventions including:
    - (a) intensifying control of diseases affecting poor populations: malaria, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, childhood diseases, eradication of polio; develop safe maternity programs; awareness of hazardous practices through reproductive health; build capacities (training) in RBM Initiative; training to apply “Integrated Attention to Childhood Diseases, Emergency Obstetric Care and Antiretroviral Treatment” approach;
    - (b) promoting preventive programs through vaccination, IEC with extension to strengthen social marketing in public and environmental health; improving nutrition status by strengthening nutritional rehabilitation component in the minimum package of activities in health centers and NGOs or specialized nutritional recovery centers;
    - (c) instituting appropriate services and contributing to establishment of solidarity mechanisms for senior citizens, prolonged-disease patients (e.g., tuberculosis), people who are HIV-positive and AIDS patients, mental patients, and the physically handicapped to reduce barriers to access to health services;
  - (iv) stimulate greater intersector cooperation, particularly with NGOs, private organizations and other sectors, and encourage advocacy with sectors related to health such as education, finances, information, water and sanitation, infrastructures and research; promote the four functions of the health system (delivery of services, financing, resource production and general administration).

### Improving access to drinking water and sanitation
- Drinking water strategy (as identified in the Water Sector Master Plan):
  - Implement a strategy to give rural and urban communities access to quality water in sufficient amounts.
  - Expected results and actions:
    - (i) increase production and supply of water by building new protected wells (wells with manual pumps) and boreholes with storehouses and pumps using alternative energy sources (solar or wind);
    - (ii) expand the drinking water network by building a new network and public fountains to increase home connections, closing off and protecting springs and boreholes; water chlorination, mainly in the Bissau urban network to avoid contamination or pollution.
  - Proper management of drinking water together with improved sanitation will help stop new epidemics of cholera and other water-related disorders.
- Sanitation priorities:
  - i) improve environmental sanitation by creating special programs to build upgraded latrines in cities and rural areas, associated with awareness and management campaigns;
  - ii) create a reliable system to collect, remove and treat waste, including construction of a landfill, primarily for the City of Bissau; drain rainwater and, in the medium term, build a central wastewater system for the City of Bissau;
  - iii) reform and institutional development of the water and sanitation sector.

### Housing policy priorities
- Required actions:
  - i) preparation and implementation of land use and urban planning laws; statutory standards and urban land use plans;
  - ii) regulation for the Land Act;
  - iii) regulation on construction and housing, and adopting a National Housing Plan;
  - iv) improving access to housing;
  - vi) improving road infrastructure and urban community support systems.

### Improving living conditions of vulnerable groups
- Definition and target groups:
  - Vulnerable groups include people lacking means to meet basic needs and those in situations endangering life or physical integrity (e.g., victims of landmines and other explosives). Categories include children, women, the handicapped (especially victims of landmines and other explosives), youth, war veterans and the elderly; many live in rural and outlying urban areas.
- Policy aims:
  - (i) increase access to social services;
  - (ii) develop programs to assist with income-generating activities mainly through microlending and community development.
- Implementation assumptions:
  - Expanding infrastructure in education and health and improving operations of health and educational systems.
  - Develop a Social Action Fund, implement monitoring and evaluation systems for project impacts on target groups, and build capacities of base communities, groups and associations.

### Programs for specific vulnerable groups
- Children:
  - Priorities: (i) provide schools with school cafeterias for rural and outlying urban areas; (ii) develop programs to fight malnutrition; (iii) strengthen intervention programs for street children and working children and eliminate the worst types of labor; (iv) improve enforcement of agreements on protection of children’s rights; (v) build capacities of institutions that protect children, in particular the Women’s and Children’s Institute (Institut de la Femme and de l'Enfant).
- Handicapped and landmine/explosive victims:
  - Interventions include: (i) improving legislation and protection from discrimination or aggression; (ii) providing health assistance; (iii) promoting education and training; (iv) fostering economic and social integration.
  - For victims of mines/other explosives: plan specific programs for physical and psychological rehabilitation and community integration, including: (i) support health system to increase emergency first-aid capacity for accidents caused by landmines and other explosives; (ii) train specialists in psychological, physical and social rehabilitation; (iii) strengthen rights of victims, including treatment and potential compensation; (iv) prevent accidents by raising awareness and educating rural populations (particularly children) on risks. The border region with Senegal and Guinea will need to be cleaned of all landmines.
- War veterans and senior citizens:
  - Emphasize: (i) identifying and implementing social protection systems; (ii) increasing the income of retirees by revising the pension system.
- Youth:
  - Strategic objective to reduce rural exodus and improve living conditions in rural areas through: (i) creating youth and adult training and qualification centers equitably; (ii) supporting farming and farming-related activities; (iii) creating infrastructures to end isolation; (iv) upgrading education, health and water resources; (v) creating an adequate lending system for youth; (vi) raising awareness, particularly among local officials, of the necessity of giving youths access to land so they can grow cash crops.

### Social Action Fund and SME/job promotion
- Social Action Fund objectives and design features:
  - (i) make financing available to developers of income-generating activities to develop productive and profitable businesses;
  - (ii) institute a responsible, effective and transparent service to enable domestic and international partners to contribute to the lending system;
  - (iii) stimulate savings to ensure stable development and autonomy of the system;
  - (iv) adopt strict, transparent and effective standards for managing the available resources of the system as essential components for sustainability of the Fund Management Commission;
  - (v) involve civil society in selection of programs and projects to be financed out of the Fund’s budget;
  - (vi) allocate 3 to 5% of the budget to supervising the impact of disbursements from the Social Action Fund.
- SMEs and job promotion:
  - Promotion of SMEs and jobs is a component of accelerated growth and poverty reduction to lower unemployment, especially among women and youth, through self-employment and assistance for private or association initiatives for the poor.
  - Existing institutions (NGOs) are dedicated to lending and savings; the Ministry of Finance has a department known as Parmec to coordinate and support decentralized financial organizations.

*Source: Excerpt from _cr07339 (pages 39–43) — strategic social sector programs and priorities.*

### 173.     By  acknowledging  that  small  operators  find  it  difficult  to  access  loans,  and  operate

### 173–189. By acknowledging that small operators find it difficult to access loans, and operate

### Access to finance and lending systems
- Small operators rely on individual savings or informal loans at exorbitant rates, negatively impacting job creation.
- It is necessary to stimulate savings and lending through effective and sustainable lending systems.

### Priority measures to promote employment and microfinance (paragraph 174)
- Development of labor-intensive programs in urban and rural areas.
- Vocational education.
- Intensification of youth integration programs in coordination with the private sector.
- Upgrading the job information system.
- Institutionalization, in coordination with NGOs, of microlending programs.
- Strengthening the microlending coordination organization so that it is able to carry out its role.

### Women’s participation and empowerment (paragraphs 175–177)
- Objectives to reverse negative trends in female participation and improve women’s involvement in development activities:
  - (i) make it easier for women to carry out tasks, especially in rural areas;
  - (ii) shorten working time for women and raise their incomes;
  - (iii) develop programs for women while preserving family and community balance.
- Specific objectives to enable women to significantly contribute to reducing poverty:
  - (i) develop awareness-raising and mobilization programs to change mentalities and attitudes regarding women;
  - (ii) improve the socioeconomic status of women;
  - (iii) give women easier access to resources;
  - (iv) raise education and training levels for women;
  - (v) improve health conditions for women by fighting morbidity and mortality related to reproduction;
  - (vi) harmonize domestic legislation in accordance with ratified international conventions;
  - (vii) improve the representation of women in every sector of public life.
- Strategies:
  - (i) simultaneously build women’s productive and organizational capacities;
  - (ii) increase the level of information, training and participation for women;
  - (iii) improve the status of women in the statutes and in society, and integrate them into national development programs.
- Strategies target women in both rural and urban areas in a context of decentralization and capacity-building for governance.

### Implementation principles and monitoring overview (paragraph 178)
- NPRSP implementation guided by principles: effective participation of all stakeholders; improving knowledge and local potential; transparency and accountability; effectiveness and synergy; equity.
- Monitoring effectiveness depends on:
  - i) institutional framework enabling technical monitoring by ministerial departments, representatives of local institutions, and representative components of civil society through locally-elected institutions and organizations;
  - ii) sequencing of monitoring on a monthly, quarterly, twice-yearly basis based on activity implementation, revenue collection, and budget execution; twice-yearly and yearly basis for mid-term and final results;
  - iii) monitoring methodology based on periodic monitoring tables providing budgetary and performance indicators (monitored by pillar and objective), and targets or benchmarks showing expected change and responsible institutions;
  - iv) information system capacity to collect general economic and social data and program-specific impact data; reporting through periodic reports, economic and social scoreboards and surveys.

### Institutional monitoring framework (paragraphs 179–180)
- Ministry of the Economy provides technical coordination for the NPRSP Implementation and Monitoring Unit (IMU).
- A Steering Committee chaired by the Prime Minister will oversee monitoring; will prepare quarterly and annual reports and meet with Government and development partners.
- IMU coordinated by Ministry of the Economy in partnership with the Ministry of Social and Family Solidarity and Poverty Alleviation; includes state, private, and civil society institutions (trade unions, NGOs, local associations).
- Ministry of the Economy will submit a twice-yearly monitoring report to the Management Committee chaired by the Prime Minister.
- IMU is a permanent organization, serving as liaison with implementing organizations, national and development partners, focal points, regional and sectoral committees, and local communities.
- IMU staff will be hired by competition and enjoy stable civil servant employment conditions.
- Local communities and elected representatives or civil society leaders will actively participate in the IMU and decision-making, programming, and auditing expenditures.
- Principles emphasized: improving knowledge and local potential, transparency and accountability, efficiency and synergy (cost-benefit focus), equity (gender differences and regional asymmetries considered).

### Monitoring-evaluation content and reporting (paragraphs 181–185)
- Monitoring based on a multiyear action plan for 2006-08; 2005 treated as a transitional phase with a priority program plan.
- Each Activity Implementation Unit prepares periodic quarterly reports reviewed by the ministry’s Research and Planning Department (GEP) before transmission to IMU technical secretariat.
- IMU feedback allows corrective measures discussed with Government and Steering Committee.
- Monitoring via progress reports of the multiyear program plan and data collection to generate monitoring indicator tables by pillar.
- Analysis of indicators to evaluate NPRSP mid-term implementation results.
- Expected effects reflected by specific indicators in Table 7 for MDG monitoring; economic and financial performances monitored using indicators in Table 7 projecting main macroeconomic results during implementation phase.
- Production of a detailed report on the implementation of the 2006-08 multiyear action plan; mid-term results by pillar and annual activities are important parts of monitoring reports.
- Monitoring instruments: quarterly, twice-yearly and annual reports; sectoral quarterly reports compiled by IMU into comprehensive quarterly reports for the Management Committee.
- The IMU will submit quarterly and annual reports to the Monitoring Committee and external partners including the World Bank, the ADB, the UNDP, the European Union, the WAEMU, and other bilateral and multilateral cooperation agencies.

### Statistical information, capacity-building and surveys (paragraphs 184–188)
- Monitoring and evaluation information will be collected from producers of basic statistics: ministries, regional departments, Central Bank (BCEAO), National Statistics and Census Institute (INEC).
- Supplementation by general surveys or surveys in poorest areas to monitor poverty dynamics; appropriate methodologies identified per survey.
- Guinea-Bissau plans a general population census at the mid-term point of NPRSP implementation to obtain baseline statistics.
- A quantitative survey of poverty will be conducted as the NPRSP concludes to measure general impact and prepare the post-2008 revision/strengthening.
- Main monitoring instruments: reports, surveys and studies.
- Statistical capacity-building priorities:
  - Strengthen INEC’s ability to produce and disseminate official statistical information to meet needs for NPRSP and MDG monitoring.
  - Bolster INEC’s capacities to coordinate organizations that produce sector statistics through legislation, training and equipment.
  - Strengthen statistical production centered on national accounts and social scoreboard; national accounts to integrate economic statistics, social scoreboard to be central for social analyses and policies.

### Scoreboard for monitoring the Millennium Development Goal indicators (Table 7 — selected indicators as presented)
- 1. Lower extreme poverty and food insecurity
  - Absolute poverty rate (%) / Extreme poverty rate (%) — 64.7 / 20.8 (2002); 68.5 / 22.0 (2005); 67.8 / 21.8 (2006); 66.8 / 21.5 (2007); 65.9 / 21.2 (2008); 64.1 / 20.6 (2010); 59.7 / 19.2 (Target for 2015)
  - Underweight (children less than 5 years old) (%) — 27 (2002); -- (2005); -- (2006); -- (2007); -- (2008); -- (2010); -- (Target for 2015)
- 2. Ensure primary education for all
  - Net enrolment rate (%) — 50.6 (2002); 62.8 (2005); 66 (2006); 69.4 (2007); 72.6 (2008); 80.5 (2010); 100 (Target for 2015)
  - Percentage of children that complete the primary cycle (%) — 33 (2002); 35 (2005); -- (2006); -- (2007); 85 (2008); 90 (2010); 100 (Target for 2015)
  - Average duration of studies for students that complete the cycle — 8.5 (2002); 8 (2005); 7.5 (2006); 7.3 (2007); 7.1 (2008); 6.7 (2010); 6 (Target for 2015)
- 3. Promote gender equality and women’s empowerment
  - Net girl-to-boy primary enrolment ratio — 0.5 (2002); 0.57 (2005); 0.62 (2006); 0.67 (2007); 0.72 (2008); 0.82 (2010); 1 (Target for 2015)
  - Net girl-to-boy secondary enrolment ratio — 0.44 (2002); 0.49 (2005); 0.54 (2006); 0.59 (2007); 0.64 (2008); 0.69 (2010); 1 (Target for 2015)
  - Illiteracy rate for women (Women/men) 15-24 years old (%) — 71.3 (2002); 65.1 (2005); 63.3 (2006); 61.6 (2007); 60 (2008); 56.8 (2010); 38 (Target for 2015)
  - Rate of women in the government (%) — 7.8 (2002); 11 (2005); -- (2006); -- (2007); -- (2008); -- (2010); -- (Target for 2015)
- 4. Reduce mortality for children under 5 years old
  - Mortality rate for children under 5 years old (per 1,000 children) / Child mortality rate (per 1,000 children) — 203 / 122 (2002); 197.4 / 117.4 (2005); 189.9 / 112.9 (2006); 182.7 / 108.6 (2007); 175.7 / 104.5 (2008); 161.1 / 96.7 (2010); 134.0 / 79.7 (Target for 2015)
  - Vaccination coverage against measles — 95 (2002); -- (2005); 80 (2006); 85 (2007); 90 (2008); 100 (2010); 100 (Target for 2015)
  - Complete vaccination coverage rate for children — 87.5 (2002); -- (2005); 86.2 (2006); -- (2007); 90 (2008); 90 (2010); 100 (Target for 2015)
- 5. Improve maternal health
  - Maternal mortality rate (per 100,000 women) — 822 (2002); 809 (2005); 800.1 (2006); 791.3 (2007); 751.7- (2008); 678.4 (2010); 525 (Target for 2015)
- 6. Fight HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
  - AIDS prevalence rate (%) — 7.0 (2002); -- (2005); -- (2006); -- (2007); -- (2008); -- (2010); 2.5 (Target for 2015)
  - Trend in malaria cases (prevalence) — 15.0 (2002); 18.1 (2005); -- (2006); -- (2007); -- (2008); -- (2010); 15.0 (Target for 2015)
  - Trend in the incidence of tuberculosis (per 100.000) — 54.4 (2002); 87 (2005); -- (2006); -- (2007); -- (2008); -- (2010); 50 (Target for 2015)
- 7. Ensure a sustainable environment
  - Percentage of forest areas (%) — 55.0 (2002); -- (2005); -- (2006); -- (2007); -- (2008); -- (2010); -- (Target for 2015)
  - Units of energy consumed per capita (Kep) — 300 (2002); -- (2005); -- (2006); -- (2007); -- (2008); -- (2010); -- (Target for 2015)
  - Percentage of the population with sustainable access to drinking water supply — 54.6 (2002); 35.0 (2005); -- (2006); -- (2007); -- (2008); -- (2010); 80.0 (Target for 2015)
  - Percentage of the population with access to water supply in the home — 5.1 (2002); -- (2005); -- (2006); -- (2007); -- (2008); -- (2010); -- (Target for 2015)

### Financial management and medium-term public expenditure framework (paragraph 183)
- Implementing the strategy involves financial and human resources management monitored through Government annual budgets and the Public Investment Program (PIP).
- Emphasis on efficient use of resources, building absorption capacity, and impact of funds spent in the field.
- Medium-term aim: develop strategic instruments to manage public expenditures through an initiation to the medium-term public expenditures framework.
- Strengthen human resources to master instruments for efficiently and strategically managing expenditures and public resources.

### Monitoring-evaluation methodology and report production (paragraph 184–185)
- Information collected from basic statistics producers; supplement with surveys in poorest areas; mid-term population census planned.
- As NPRSP concludes, quantitative poverty survey to measure impact and inform post-2008 revisions.
- Main monitoring instruments: quarterly, twice-yearly and annual sectoral reports compiled by IMU for Management Committee and international partners.

### Statistical system strengthening and coordination (paragraphs 186–188)
- Necessity to build long-term poverty monitoring/evaluation capacities to ensure system continuity, sustainability and survivability.
- Develop national capacities to evaluate impacts of development policies and ensure autonomy, objectivity and credibility of monitoring organizations.
- Strengthen INEC to produce and disseminate official statistical information and coordinate sector statistics via legislation, training and equipment.
- Focus statistical production on national accounts and social scoreboard: national accounts for economic policies; social scoreboard as central theme for social analyses and policies.

### Risks to NPRSP implementation (paragraph 189)
- Institutional risk: institutional stability required for successful implementation.
- Technical risk: absorption capacity and monitoring present a major challenge.
- Financing risk: obtaining funding to implement planned programs; proposals considered ambitious but feasible through consensus-driven process.
- External risk: impacts from changes abroad, particularly changes in the price of oil, depreciation of the dollar against the euro and the F CFA reference currency, deterioration of terms of trade, damage to microeconomic balances and decreased growth essential for poverty alleviation.

*Source: Excerpt from NPRSP implementation and monitoring section (paragraphs 173–189).*

### 190.     These  risks  may  be  decreased,  in  particular  by:  (i)  creating  a  legal  and  institutional

### _cr07339 - 190.     These  risks  may  be  decreased,  in  particular  by:  (i)  creating  a  legal  and  institutional

### Risk mitigation measures
- Create a legal and institutional environment that promotes stability and raises domestic and foreign funding to finance the strategy.
- Strengthen the organization in charge of coordinating the NPRSP implementation and ensure the coordination and participation of all stakeholders involved; strengthen the organizations involved in carrying out and monitoring the multiyear action plan.
- Ensure close cooperation with the private sector and other social partners to guarantee a stable environment that promotes the sustainable development of growth.
- Cooperate with development partners to guarantee the aid necessary to absorb impacts from abroad that could jeopardize growth.

### 7. COST AND FINANCING STRATEGY — Overview
- Budgeting for the NPRSP is based on priority programs in the 2006-08 multiyear action plan, regardless of whether financing has been secured. Timeframe for implementing programs is three years but may change with economic and social context.
- Expenditures classified by objective: direct interventions for poor populations and institutional support, human resources development, structural reforms and sector development, and investments (equipment, construction, renovation of economic and social infrastructures).
- Exercise carried out by the General Directorate of Planning of the Ministry of Economy with sectoral departments; evaluations to be supplemented by MDG planning covering 2006 to 2015 (and perhaps beyond) as recommended by the United Nations General Assembly in September 2005.

### Funding requirements (2006–08 aggregate and composition)
- Funding requirements for the NPRSP for the period 2006-08 are estimated at CFAF 227.2 billion, or USD 441.2 million.
- Of this amount, 148.4 billion F CFA, or 65.3% of the entire budget, will go toward investments throughout the entire period.
- Interventions intended directly for the poor populations, structural and sector reforms, institutional support and human resources development will account for the remainder, or 34.7% of the NPRSP’s budget.
- Annual planned investment amounts:
  - 26.8% of GDP in 2006
  - 32.5% in 2007
  - 21.9% en 2008
- Government target: raise public investment to 20% of tax revenue as planned in the convergence, growth and solidarity pact.
- Expected multiplier and supply constraints:
  - Implementation expected to stimulate production via increased capital and non-capital spending, but multiplier effect limited by poor ability of the economy to supply necessary goods and services.
  - Significant demand for imported goods and services anticipated.
  - Some investments aimed at renovating infrastructures destroyed in the 1998-99 conflict and increasing long-run production capacity.

### Table highlights — NPRSP Financing by Pillars, themes and subthemes (F CFA)
- Pillar I) Strengthen governance, modernize the public administration and ensure macroeconomic stability: CFAF 30,784,399,000 — 13.6%
  - 1.1 Strengthen governance and ensure macroeconomic stability: CFAF 6,533,000,000 — 2.9%
    - 1.1.1 Continue with improvements in budget management: CFAF 323,000,000
    - 1.1.2 Strengthen macroeconomic management: CFAF 6,210,000,000
  - 1.2 Modernize the administration and build capacities: CFAF 4,876,399,000 — 2.2%
    - 1.2.1 Reform the public administration: CFAF 3,505,000,000
    - 1.2.2 Build capacities: CFAF 1,371,399,000
  - 1.3 Strengthen the Rule of Law/judicial apparatus and support decentralization/social consensus-building: CFAF 4,840,000,000 — 2.1%
    - 1.3.1 Promote rapid, transparent, accessible and independent justice and strengthen the National People’s Assembly: CFAF 4,540,000,000
    - 1.3.2 Promote local development and social consensus-building: CFAF 300,000,000
  - 1.4 Reform the security sector: CFAF 14,535,000,000 — 6.4%
    - 1.4.1 Demobilize, convert and improve living conditions in the barracks: CFAF 7,260,000,000
    - 1.4.2 Transform the defense and security forces into stakeholders for re-establishing peace and strengthening the Rule of Law: CFAF 7,275,000,000

- Pillar II) Promote economic growth and job creation: CFAF 104,632,435,371 — 46.1%
  - 2.1 Improve the business environment and stimulate sectors employing the poor: CFAF 23,991,005,000 — 10.6%
    - 2.1.1 Improve the business environment and investment: CFAF 827,925,000
    - 2.1.2 Stimulate productive sectors and promote diversification and economic competitiveness: CFAF 23,163,080,000
  - 2.2 Develop infrastructures that support production: CFAF 80,641,430,371 — 35.5%
    - 2.2.1 Rehabilitate the energy sector: CFAF 18,429,883,514
    - 2.2.2 Develop road infrastructures: CFAF 43,145,545,327
    - 2.2.3 Support development of surface and river infrastructures: CFAF 11,891,447,500
    - 2.2.4 Support air, meteorology and telecommunications sectors: CFAF 7,174,554,030

- Pillar III) Increase access to basic social services and social infrastructures: CFAF 75,346,919,447 — 33.1%
  - 3.1 Improve access to quality education: CFAF 17,997,669,447 — 7.9%
    - 3.1.1 Increase access to primary, secondary and higher education: CFAF 12,268,031,097
    - 3.1.2 Provide universal high-quality schooling: CFAF 5,729,638,350
  - 3.2 Improve the population’s health status: CFAF 24,616,250,000 — 10.8%
    - 3.2.1 Improve the supply and quality of health services: CFAF 15,922,650,000
    - 3.2.2 Fight HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and other diseases: CFAF 1,936,100,000
    - 3.2.3 Improve the status of mothers and children: CFAF 6,757,500,000
  - 3.3 Improve the lifestyle of the populations: CFAF 32,733,000,000 — 14.4%
    - 3.3.1 Improve access to drinking water and sanitation: CFAF 15,823,000,000
    - 3.3.2 Improve social housing: CFAF 16,910,000,000

- Pillar IV) Improve the living conditions of vulnerable groups: CFAF 16,457,216,000 — 7.2%
  - 4.1 Promote the socioeconomic integration of vulnerable groups: CFAF 8,046,500,000 — 3.5%
    - 4.1.1 Improve the social protection of vulnerable groups: CFAF 1,735,000,000
    - 4.1.2 Promote income-generating activities: CFAF 6,311,500,000
  - 4.2 Develop specific programs to support vulnerable groups: CFAF 8,410,716,000 — 3.7%
    - 4.2.1 Promote creation of reception and monitoring centers and fight illiteracy in women: CFAF 3,684,500,000
    - 4.2.2 Promote practice of sports and renovate poor areas (shantytowns): CFAF 4,726,216,000

- NPRSP TOTAL (2006–08): CFAF 67,555,199,714 (2006), CFAF 89,044,709,344 (2007), CFAF 70,621,060,760 (2008) — Total CFAF 227,220,969,818 — 100%
- NPRSP in USD (by year and total):
  - 2006: 131,175,145
  - 2007: 172,902,348
  - 2008: 137,128,273
  - Total: 441,205,767

### Pillar-by-pillar summaries and priorities
- Pillar I (governance, administration, macroeconomic stability):
  - Government plans to spend CFAF 30.9 billion, or 13.6% of NPRSP resources for this pillar.
  - CFAF 24.97 billion of this amount will go toward structural reforms to pay domestic debt and modernize civil service and security sector via retrenchment.
- Pillar II (economic growth and job creation):
  - Spending of CFAF 104.6 billion, or 46.1% of the NPRSP budget.
  - CFAF 23.99 billion to improve business framework and promote diversification.
  - CFAF 80.6 billion for infrastructure supporting production (electricity, water, roads, ports, telecommunications).
  - 79.1% of second pillar budget are investments; remainder for institutional support, sector reform, and capacity building.
  - Emphasis on vocational education and management programs in farming, processing, and fisheries to help trainees access created jobs.
- Pillar III (social services and infrastructures):
  - CFAF 75.347 billion over three years, or 33.1% of NPRSP budget.
  - Education: CFAF 17.998 billion (7.9% of total).
  - Health: CFAF 24.616 billion (10.8% of total).
  - Social services/basic infrastructures investments: CFAF 32.733 billion (14.4% of total).
  - 70.3% of pillar’s budget allocated to investments; remainder to reforms and capacity building.
- Pillar IV (vulnerable groups):
  - Pillar represents 7.2% of entire NPRSP budget.
  - Socioeconomic integration programs: CFAF 8.046 billion (3.5% of NPRSP).
  - Specific support programs: CFAF 8.410 billion (3.7% of NPRSP).
  - Investments represent 48.9% of this pillar.
  - Note: poverty-fighting programs span the entire NPRSP, not limited to this pillar.

### Monitoring and evaluation (not included in total NPRSP funding)
- NPRSP monitoring and evaluation requires CFAF 250,000,000, or 485,437 dollars. This sum is available but not incorporated into total NPRSP funding.
- Intended uses: training staff for monitoring, data collection, impact studies, monitoring reports, and public/partner information.
- Table 10 (monitoring and evaluation in F CFA):
  - Training: 15,000,000 (2006), 19,250,000 (2007), 15,000,000 (2008) — Total 49,250,000
  - Data collection: 25,000,000 (2006), 27,500,000 (2007), 25,000,000 (2008) — Total 77,500,000
  - Impact studies: 20,000,000 (2006), 33,250,000 (2007), 20,000,000 (2008) — Total 73,250,000
  - Reports, dissemination/communication: 15,000,000 (2006), 20,000,000 (2007), 15,000,000 (2008) — Total 50,000,000
  - Total M&E: 75,000,000 (2006), 100,000,000 (2007), 75,000,000 (2008) — Total 250,000,000

### Financing by type of expense (aggregates in F CFA)
- For all NPRSP pillars, totals by category (2006–08):
  - Build human capacities: 1,778,604,785 (2006), 1,934,649,785 (2007), 1,721,849,785 (2008) — Total 5,435,104,355 — 2.4%
  - Structural and sector reform: 9,165,163,000 (2006), 20,074,684,000 (2007), 18,216,958,000 (2008) — Total 47,456,805,000 — 20.9%
  - Institutional support and current expenditures: 7,484,615,420 (2006), 9,183,855,339 (2007), 9,242,364,243 (2008) — Total 25,910,835,002 — 11.4%
  - Investments: 49,126,816,509 (2006), 57,851,520,220 (2007), 41,439,888,732 (2008) — Total 148,418,225,461 — 65.3%
- Total per year:
  - 2006: 67,555,199,714
  - 2007: 89,044,709,344
  - 2008: 70,621,060,760
  - Total: 227,220,969,818 — 100.0%

*IMF staff report content as provided in the source PDF.*

### 7.2 NPRSP financing strategy

### 7.2 NPRSP financing strategy

### Overview
- Financing for the NPRSP is based on domestic contributions from the Government and the private sector, as well as on external assistance.
- Out of a total budget of CFAF 227.221 billion, 80.3%, or CFAF 182.479 billion (USD 354.328 million) will depend on donor support.
- The NPRSP emergency program requires raising financial resources estimated at USD 441.206 million, of which only 19.7% has been secured.

### Domestic revenue measures and obligations
- Current fiscal revenue is about 10% of GDP; the WAEMU stability and growth pact recommends increasing it to 17%.
- Planned measures to raise domestic funding:
  - Improve management of public finances and effectiveness of tax authorities.
  - Introduce the value-added tax to replace the sales tax.
  - Modernize revenue collection departments.
  - Implement appropriate reforms for using natural resources, particularly fisheries, to obtain substantial revenues while paying attention to environmental conservation.
- Expected effects:
  - Implementation of the strategy is expected to generate additional enterprises and hence additional revenue and income for all stakeholders, including the State.
  - The NPRSP should make it possible to quickly lower the budget deficit and find additional funds for investment.
  - The Government does not intend to increase its foreign and domestic debt under the NPRSP and aims to eliminate foreign debt under the HIPC Initiative as quickly as possible to be eligible for the MDRI approved by the IMF and World Bank in September 2005.
  - The Government seeks untied aid in line with the Paris declaration of April 2005 so partner support does not increase foreign debt.

### External assistance and debt stance
- Many development partners have stated the intention of supporting NPRSP priority programs in the amount of 44.742 billion F CFA, or 19.7% of the total.
- The remaining 80.3%, which amounts to 354.328 million dollars, has yet to be secured.
- The Government emphasizes that support from partners should not be a source of increasing its foreign debt.

### Financing acquired and financing to be raised by Pillar (in F CFA)
- Total NPRSP: 227,220,969,818
  - Financing acquired: 44,741,814,152 (19.7%)
  - Financing to be raised: 182,479,155,666 (80.3%)
  - NPRSP in USD: 441,205,767 total; 86,877,309 acquired; 354,328,458 to be raised
- Pillar I — Strengthen governance, modernize the administration and ensure macroeconomic stability:
  - Total: 30,784,399,000
  - Financing acquired: 2,123,000,000 (6.9%)
  - Financing to be raised: 28,661,399,000 (93.1%)
- Pillar II — Promote economic growth and job creation:
  - Total: 104,632,435,371
  - Financing acquired: 15,278,262,705 (14.6%)
  - Financing to be raised: 89,354,172,666 (85.4%)
- Pillar III — Increase access to basic social services and social infrastructures:
  - Total: 75,346,919,447
  - Financing acquired: 25,280,335,447 (33.6%)
  - Financing to be raised: 50,066,584,000 (66.4%)
- Pillar IV — Improve the living conditions of vulnerable groups:
  - Total: 16,457,216,000
  - Financing acquired: 2,060,216,000 (12.5%)
  - Financing to be raised: 14,397,000,000 (87.5%)

### Conclusion and financing summary
- The Government, in coordination with development partners, identifies urgent difficulties to prevent a collapse of weak economic and social structures.
- The NPRSP presents a multidimensional and gradual emergency program aligned with country difficulties and priorities.
- Total financing requirement: USD 441.206 million.
  - Secured: 19.7% (44.742 billion F CFA / 86,877,309 USD).
  - Unsecured: 80.3% (CFAF 182.479 billion / USD 354.328 million).

*Source: _cr07339 - 7.2 NPRSP financing strategy.*

### 205.     The deprivations that the population has endured over the past years must come to an end.

### _cr07339 - 205.     The deprivations that the population has endured over the past years must come to an end.

### National social policy commitment and external support
- "The deprivations that the population has endured over the past years must come to an end."
- Government commitment:
  - Curb factors leading to a "critical social and humane situation."
  - NPRSP developed in a participatory manner.
  - "The effective implementation of the NPRSP will be a step toward reducing extreme poverty and achieving the MDGs in the country."
- External support required:
  - "Domestic efforts, however, will not be sufficient to accelerate the pace of reducing extreme poverty or achieving the MDGs."
  - "The support of the development partners will be essential to accompany the Government’s efforts and those of the entire society along the path to sustainable human development."

### Projections for main macroeconomic indicators (selected figures)
- GDP in billions of current F CFA: 158.641 171.8178.237188.832 200.057
- Real GDP growth rate at market prices: 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.0 5.0
- Real GDP growth rate per inhabitant: 0.2 1.6 2.2 2.8 2.7
- Consumer price index: 1.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0
- Investments/GDP: 14.6 17.2 18.7 20.6 20.5
- Public investments /GDP: 10.0 11.6 12.6 12.6 12.6
- Gross domestic savings/GDP: -2.9 -0.3 0.6 3.3 3.9
- Public savings/GDP: -16.7 -10.2 -8.2 -6 -2.1
- National savings/GDP: 7.5 12.1 10.8 13.9 14.5
- Budget revenues/GDP: 17.6 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.3
- Tax receipts/GDP: 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.0
- Primary public expenditures/GDP: 24.5 24.0 23.4 22.9 21.2
- Total budget balance including donations: -12.1 -6.1 -8.1 -6.8 -4.8
- Total budget balance excluding donations: -20.5 17.6 -17.1 -15.7 -13.6
- Current account balance (CAB)/GDP official transfers included: -7.1 -5.1 -8.0 -6.8 -6.0
- CAB official transfers excluded: -10.3 -14.1 14.4 -13.2 -12.3

### Pillar I: Strengthen governance, modernize the public administration and ensure macroeconomic stability (selected program totals and key items)
- Major subcategory and program cost examples (in F CFA):
  - Subtotal category 1.1: 1,135,000,000 (2006); 2,298,000,000 (2007); 3,100,000,000 (2008); Total 6,533,000,000
  - Subtotal category 1.2: 720,139,500 (2006); 2,382,609,500 (2007); 1,773,650,000 (2008); Total 4,876,399,000
  - Subtotal category 1.3: 275,000,000 (2006); 1,160,000,000 (2007); 3,405,000,000 (2008); Total 4,840,000,000
  - Subtotal category 1.4: 405,000,000 (2006); 7,030,000,000 (2007); 7,100,000,000 (2008); Total 14,535,000,000
- Total Pillar I:
  - 2,535,139,500 (2006)
  - 12,870,609,500 (2007)
  - 15,378,650,000 (2008)
  - Total 30,784,399,000
- Total Pillar I in USD:
  - 4,922,601 (2006)
  - 24,991,475 (2007)
  - 29,861,456 (2008)
  - Total 59,775,532

### Pillar II: Promote economic growth and job creation (selected program totals and key items)
- Subtotal category 2.1 (business environment and productive sectors):
  - 6,818,413,000 (2006)
  - 9,906,684,000 (2007)
  - 7,265,908,000 (2008)
  - Total 23,991,005,000
- Selected major subcomponents:
  - 2.1.2. Stimulate the productive sectors subtotal: 6,190,488,000 (2006); 9,806,684,000 (2007); 7,165,908,000 (2008); Total 23,163,080,000
- Subtotal category 2.2 (production support infrastructures):
  - 24,526,816,929 (2006)
  - 33,365,426,295 (2007)
  - 22,749,187,147 (2008)
  - Total 80,641,430,370
- Total Pillar II:
  - 31,345,229,929 (2006)
  - 43,272,110,295 (2007)
  - 30,015,095,147 (2008)
  - Total 104,632,435,370
- Total Pillar II in USD:
  - 60,864,524 (2006)
  - 84,023,515 (2007)
  - 58,281,738 (2008)
  - Total 203,169,777

### Pillar III: Increase access to basic services and infrastructures (selected program totals and key items)
- Category 3.1 (education) subtotal:
  - 6,923,208,285 (2006)
  - 6,679,267,549 (2007)
  - 4,395,193,613 (2008)
  - Total 17,997,669,446
- Category 3.2 (health) subtotal:
  - 8,850,350,000 (2006)
  - 9,010,100,000 (2007)
  - 6,755,800,000 (2008)
  - Total 24,616,250,000
- Category 3.3 (water, sanitation, housing) subtotal:
  - 12,686,700,000 (2006)
  - 10,989,000,000 (2007)
  - 9,057,300,000 (2008)
  - Total 32,733,000,000
- Total Pillar III:
  - 28,460,258,285 (2006)
  - 26,678,367,549 (2007)
  - 20,208,293,613 (2008)
  - Total 75,346,919,446
- Total Pillar III in USD:
  - 55,262,637 (2006)
  - 51,802,655 (2007)
  - 39,239,405 (2008)
  - Total 146,304,698

### Pillar IV: Improve les conditions de vie des vulnerable groups (selected program totals and key items)
- Category 4.1 (socioeconomic integration and income-generating activities) subtotal:
  - 2,520,250,000 (2006)
  - 2,891,250,000 (2007)
  - 2,635,000,000 (2008)
  - Total 8,046,500,000
- Category 4.2 (programs for vulnerable groups) subtotal:
  - 1,047,250,000 (2006)
  - 1,385,300,000 (2007)
  - 1,251,950,000 (2008)
  - Total 3,684,500,000
- Total Pillar IV:
  - 5,214,572,000 (2006)
  - 6,223,622,000 (2007)
  - 5,019,022,000 (2008)
  - Total 16,457,216,000
- Total Pillar IV in USD:
  - 10,125,383 (2006)
  - 12,084,703 (2007)
  - 9,745,674 (2008)
  - Total 31,955,759

*Source: _cr07339 - 205.     The deprivations that the population has endured over the past years must come to an end.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2007/_cr07339.pdf_