## _cr0810 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [_cr0810](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2008/_cr0810.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2008/_cr0810.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2008/_cr0810.pdf.json) --- ### I. Overview - National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (MKUKUTA) period: 2005–2010; issued in June 2005. - Second MKUKUTA Annual Implementation Report (MAIR) covering 2006/2007 issued in November 2007. - MAIR coordinated by the Poverty Eradication Division of the Ministry of Planning, Economy, and Empowerment (MPEE) with MDAs, LGAs, research and academic institutions, and non-state actors (NSAs). MKUKUTA Technical Committee provided oversight. - Information sources used in MAIR preparation included: public expenditure review (PER) studies, MKUKUTA Status Report (2006), Bank of Tanzania’s Economic Survey, sector reviews, and ministry reports. - MAIR discussion forums: Annual Review of General Budget Support (late October) and Poverty Policy Week (November). - Limitations noted in MAIR: - MAIR does not provide budget outturn information classified according to MKUKUTA because budget execution reporting is not fully aligned with MKUKUTA strategic goals and outcomes. - Data from the 2006/07 Household Budget Survey (HBS) will not be available until 2008. - JSAN objective: provide focused, frank, and constructive feedback on MKUKUTA implementation. - Document approval and date: Approved by David Nellor and Michael T. Hadjimichael (IMF) and Obiageli K. Ezekwesili (IDA) on December 18, 2007. - Publication identifiers: © 2008 International Monetary Fund January 2008; IMF Country Report No. 08/10. ### II. Implementation of Poverty Reduction Strategy #### A. Growth and Reduction of Income Poverty - Macroeconomic performance and external sector - Real GDP growth described as robust. - Inflation trended slightly higher—exceeding the MKUKUTA target of 4 percent; inflation held to single digits. - External position improved through debt cancellations under the HIPC and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiatives; international reserves further built up. - Import growth outpaced exports, reflecting higher fuel costs and strong demand for capital goods, resulting in a widening of the external current account deficit. - The external current account deficit was more than financed by donor support, foreign direct investment, and other capital inflows. - Monetary and liquidity management - Supply shocks contributed to price increases; strengthened implementation of monetary policy by the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) is needed to return inflation to a downward trajectory. - Sterilization challenge: large amounts of liquidity generated by donor-financed government spending pose a significant challenge for monetary policy. - BoT intends to rely more on sales of foreign exchange obtained from budget support rather than issuing government securities for sterilization. - Need to improve liquidity management to enhance stability in domestic financial markets, particularly the T-bill market. - Growth strategy and supply-side constraints - Need to diversify the economy and further strengthen the supply side to underpin long-term macroeconomic stability and create employment opportunities outside agriculture. - Key focus areas: enhance agriculture sector performance through commercialization and value-addition; address impediments via improved mobilization and efficient use of public resources, sustained financial sector reform, and improving the business environment including infrastructure development. - A coherent and integrated operational growth strategy identifying lead sectors, sequencing of public sector interventions, and corresponding private sector and civil society responses is still missing. - Fiscal stance and risks - Sound fiscal stance credited as bedrock for recent macroeconomic stability. - Impressive increases in government revenues together with substantial donor support allowed strong increases in government spending without excessive recourse to domestic borrowing. - Staffs support authorities’ plan to continue to limit domestic borrowing and contain aggregate demand pressures from fiscal operations. - Fiscal risks to contain: - Public-private partnerships (PPPs) should be contingent on adequate value-for-money and careful assessment of potential fiscal obligations; require strong institutional and regulatory frameworks. - Increases in the wage bill must balance retention of adequate civil servants with preserving macroeconomic stability. - Increasing the share of infrastructure spending needs to account for future recurrent costs. - Revenue, aid unpredictability, and cash management - Need to continue expanding domestic revenue via improved tax administration and broadening the tax base; emphasize collection of non-tax revenue. - Staffs welcome initiative to develop scenario analyses to cope with unpredictability of foreign assistance and recognition that further work is needed to capture all foreign assistance flows for strategic budget preparation. - Creation of Cash Management Committee and Cash Management Units welcomed; challenge is to operationalize them to strengthen cash management. - Critical need to improve monitoring and reporting on MKUKUTA through better performance indicators and institutionalized routine monitoring, evaluation, and reporting mechanisms. - Decentralization and local government capacity - Translating macro achievements into grassroots sustainable development requires strengthening fiscal intergovernmental relations and LGA capacity. - Devolution of spending functions requires adequate definition of responsibilities and capacity. - Progress noted: further rolling out IFMS to LGAs, simplifying intergovernmental transfer system, and improving reporting on LGA finances; but significant improvement still needed. - Local government budget planning and execution remains weak and needs strengthening. - Infrastructure sectors - Energy sector response to 2006 crisis: change in management of TANESCO, development of a Financial Recovery Plan, and rollout of an investment plan to expand capacity and enhance service delivery. - Staffs encourage adoption of a new Electricity bill to provide sound institutional framework and opportunities for private investment. - Transport sector achievements: approval of a new road bill, full funding of road maintenance, and completion of preliminary work to prioritize and align the Transport Infrastructure Investment Plan (TIIP) with the medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF). - Remaining concerns: management and autonomy of TANROADS, ministry capacity to prioritize TIIP, and smooth budget execution. - Poverty indicators and rural growth - MAIR does not provide information on evolution of poverty indicators due to lack of recent household income and consumption data. - Despite relatively high GDP growth, MAIR notes reduction of income poverty might have been marginal due to relatively modest growth in the agricultural sector. - Need to foster rural sector growth; develop agricultural policy focused on small-scale low productivity farms as part of poverty reduction strategy. - Critical measures: improve availability, distribution and affordability of agro-inputs and extension services. - Natural resources governance: need to curb illegal timber harvesting, enforce revenue collection targets, strengthen forest surveillance units, and improve data collection and analysis on contribution and sustainability of the natural resources sector. #### B. Improved Quality of Life and Social Wellbeing - General progress - Most indicators of social wellbeing and quality of life recorded significant improvement during the period under review. - Education - Good progress toward achieving universal primary education; significant increase in primary enrollment. - Need to expand secondary and tertiary education. - Challenges from enrollment surge: safeguarding education standards and quality at all levels; managing expansion of school facilities. - Authorities need to improve monitoring and evaluation procedures and data reliability. - Better planning and budgeting processes needed, including projections on expansions to identify sector financing gaps. - Staffs concur with need to address significant gender disparities in enrollment at upper secondary and tertiary levels. - Health and social protection - Need to reverse negative trend in maternal mortality and scale up implementation of National HIV/AIDS strategy. - Increase in maternal mortality attributed in part to slow progress in improving referral care and hospital reforms, high levels of malnutrition, and HIV/AIDS complications. - Under-five mortality declined from 155 to 112 between 1999 and 2005. - External evaluation of health reforms (1999–2006) indicates reforms are impacting health outcomes and system performance and efficiency through better management of domestic and external financing. - Social protection mechanisms remain limited; authorities developing a national social protection strategy, but no timeframe for adoption given. - Staffs commend development of the strategy and note challenge of realism given deep and widespread social vulnerability and poverty; suggest leveraging synergies with existing social programs as a possible approach. - Human resources in social sectors - Need to ensure availability of skilled and motivated staff across social services sectors. - Government intends to pilot a new human resources strategy on remuneration package and recruitment in one sector, possibly health, where the human resources gap is estimated at 67 percent. #### C. Governance and Accountability - Reform progress and remaining challenges - MAIR details sustained efforts on comprehensive governance reforms and identifies main challenges: weak domestic accountability, corruption, uneven implementation and weak coordination of core reforms, and wavering commitment to decentralization. - Public service reforms and pay - Public service reforms have created more transparent management systems and better remuneration, particularly for professional, managerial, and technical staff who have been leaving public service at a faster pace than other groups. - Impact of reforms in executing agencies has yet to be fully felt. - Staffs welcome measures to improve public service salaries and encourage authorities to closely monitor their impact. - Staffs urge careful evaluation of impact on government finances, including unfunded pension liabilities, of any further pay reform measures while continuing efforts to establish an effective and fully transparent remuneration system (pay and allowances). - Audit, legislature capacity, and investigations - Substantial improvement in the National Audit Office (NAO) after investment in external audit capacity: external audit reports for 2006 were produced in a timely manner, discussed in Parliament, and published. - Key remaining challenge: follow-up on audit recommendations. - Domestic accountability would be strengthened by enhancing legislature capacity. - MAIR could have noted ongoing investigations into highly visible possible wrongdoing, such as alleged improprieties with management of the external payments arrears (EPA) account by the BoT; appropriate follow-up to these investigations is critical. - Anti-corruption measures - New Prevention and Combating of Corruption Act enacted in 2007 expanded number of corruption offenses. - Strengthening of the Prevention and Combating of Corruption Bureau and enactment of the Public Procurement Act resulted in significant increase in number of cases reported. - Audits by PPRA of procurement practices at 20 spending agencies were published, highlighting need for additional progress. - National Anti-corruption Strategy and Action Plan (NACSAP II) launched in December 2006. - Government invited consultants to carry out a first-ever National Governance and Corruption Survey to assess extent of corruption in public and private sectors. - Initiative to establish a National Anti-corruption Forum welcomed; forum to bring together government, civil society, private sector, and donors to discuss policies, progress, and outcomes of anti-corruption initiatives. ### III. Monitoring and Evaluation - Tanzania has put in place an elaborate Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) architecture to follow MKUKUTA implementation. ### Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) System Assessment (Section 2) - The system includes "specific institutions, procedures and outputs, which cover the whole budget cycle, from planning to execution." - Emerging view: the system "fails to deliver in a satisfactory way for at least two key reasons: (i) the quality and timeliness of the underlying information are weak, and (ii) the lack of the necessary incentives to integrate the outputs in the domestic budget and accountability systems." - As a result, "the MKUKUTA M&E has remained a mainly donor-oriented system, producing M&E outputs of mixed relevance." - The MAIR highlights "the need to furthering the harmonization of M&E system in government institutions – including at the LGA level – to foster quality reporting and enable better decision making." - Footnote: "The special audit of EPA account transactions during 2005/06 was completed in late November 2007 and the report is expected to be finalized shortly." ### Opportunities to Strengthen Data Production and Reporting - Two initiatives provide opportunities to strengthen economic and social data production and rationalize reporting: - "The preparation of the Tanzania Statistical Master Plan led by the National Bureau of Statistics which sets out how data needs for performance monitoring at national and sub-national level can be met." - "The requirement included in the 2007 Budget Guidelines and originating from the Task Force to Harmonize MKUKUTA, Strategic Planning and MTEF for every institution to produce annual performance reports." - Staffs welcome efforts to: - "strengthen and rationalize domestic systems and anchor the MKUKUTA M&E firmly within the government processes, including the reporting of expenditure outturns classified according to MKUKUTA activities." - The MTEF is noted as "an appropriate framework for costing various poverty-related targets and analysis of alternative scenarios," which "were previously recommended in the JSAN for the MKUKUTA, but have yet to be implemented." - A critical action: "the finalization and implementation of the statistical strategy currently under preparation and emphasis to the importance of preparing adequate performance reports." ### Conclusions and Priority Actions - "The staffs commend the authorities for their sustained efforts with MKUKUTA implementation." - The MAIR "provides a comprehensive assessment of the results achieved and identifies areas for further improvement." - Staffs particularly stress the importance of: - "Strengthening monitoring and evaluation systems and budgeting and planning processes, including the MTEF and analysis of alternative scenarios;" - "Sustaining the efforts to tackle corruption and enhance governance;" - "Focusing efforts on drivers of economic growth, notably by enhancing agricultural sector performance, addressing identified weaknesses in the investment climate - including public infrastructure -, and improving natural resources management;" - "Strengthening fiscal intergovernmental relations and LGAs capacity;" - "Addressing the human resources shortages in key services sectors;" and - "Implementing prudent macroeconomic policies that achieve stated objectives for economic stability." *Prepared by the Staffs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Development Agency (IDA); Joint Staff Advisory Note on the National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (MKUKUTA) - Annual Implementation Report 2006/07 (December 18, 2007).* ### Section 1 ### _cr0810 - Section 1 ### I. Overview - National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (MKUKUTA) period: 2005–2010; issued in June 2005. - Second MKUKUTA Annual Implementation Report (MAIR) covering 2006/2007 issued in November 2007. - MAIR coordinated by the Poverty Eradication Division of the Ministry of Planning, Economy, and Empowerment (MPEE) with MDAs, LGAs, research and academic institutions, and non-state actors (NSAs). MKUKUTA Technical Committee provided oversight. - Information sources used in MAIR preparation included: public expenditure review (PER) studies, MKUKUTA Status Report (2006), Bank of Tanzania’s Economic Survey, sector reviews, and ministry reports. - MAIR discussion forums: Annual Review of General Budget Support (late October) and Poverty Policy Week (November). - Limitations noted in MAIR: - MAIR does not provide budget outturn information classified according to MKUKUTA because budget execution reporting is not fully aligned with MKUKUTA strategic goals and outcomes. - Data from the 2006/07 Household Budget Survey (HBS) will not be available until 2008. - JSAN objective: provide focused, frank, and constructive feedback on MKUKUTA implementation. - Document approval and date: Approved by David Nellor and Michael T. Hadjimichael (IMF) and Obiageli K. Ezekwesili (IDA) on December 18, 2007. - Publication identifiers: © 2008 International Monetary Fund January 2008; IMF Country Report No. 08/10. ### II. Implementation of Poverty Reduction Strategy #### A. Growth and Reduction of Income Poverty - Macroeconomic performance and external sector - Real GDP growth described as robust. - Inflation trended slightly higher—exceeding the MKUKUTA target of 4 percent; inflation held to single digits. - External position improved through debt cancellations under the HIPC and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiatives; international reserves further built up. - Import growth outpaced exports, reflecting higher fuel costs and strong demand for capital goods, resulting in a widening of the external current account deficit. - The external current account deficit was more than financed by donor support, foreign direct investment, and other capital inflows. - Monetary and liquidity management - MAIR notes supply shocks contributed to price increases; strengthened implementation of monetary policy by the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) is needed to return inflation to a downward trajectory. - Sterilization challenge: large amounts of liquidity generated by donor-financed government spending pose a significant challenge for monetary policy. - BoT intends to rely more on sales of foreign exchange obtained from budget support rather than issuing government securities for sterilization. - Need to improve liquidity management to enhance stability in domestic financial markets, particularly the T-bill market. - Growth strategy and supply-side constraints - MAIR emphasizes the need to diversify the economy and further strengthen the supply side to underpin long-term macroeconomic stability and create employment opportunities outside agriculture. - Key focus areas: enhance agriculture sector performance through commercialization and value-addition; address impediments via improved mobilization and efficient use of public resources, sustained financial sector reform, and improving the business environment including infrastructure development. - A coherent and integrated operational growth strategy identifying lead sectors, sequencing of public sector interventions, and corresponding private sector and civil society responses is still missing. - Fiscal stance and risks - Sound fiscal stance credited as bedrock for recent macroeconomic stability. - Impressive increases in government revenues together with substantial donor support allowed strong increases in government spending without excessive recourse to domestic borrowing. - Staffs support authorities’ plan to continue to limit domestic borrowing and contain aggregate demand pressures from fiscal operations. - Fiscal risks to contain: - Public-private partnerships (PPPs) should be contingent on adequate value-for-money and careful assessment of potential fiscal obligations; require strong institutional and regulatory frameworks. - Increases in the wage bill must balance retention of adequate civil servants with preserving macroeconomic stability. - Increasing the share of infrastructure spending needs to account for future recurrent costs. - Revenue, aid unpredictability, and cash management - Need to continue expanding domestic revenue via improved tax administration and broadening the tax base; emphasize collection of non-tax revenue. - Staffs welcome initiative to develop scenario analyses to cope with unpredictability of foreign assistance and recognition that further work is needed to capture all foreign assistance flows for strategic budget preparation. - Creation of Cash Management Committee and Cash Management Units welcomed; challenge is to operationalize them to strengthen cash management. - Critical need to improve monitoring and reporting on MKUKUTA through better performance indicators and institutionalized routine monitoring, evaluation, and reporting mechanisms. - Decentralization and local government capacity - Translating macro achievements into grassroots sustainable development requires strengthening fiscal intergovernmental relations and LGA capacity. - Devolution of spending functions requires adequate definition of responsibilities and capacity. - Progress noted: further rolling out IFMS to LGAs, simplifying intergovernmental transfer system, and improving reporting on LGA finances; but significant improvement still needed. - Local government budget planning and execution remains weak and needs strengthening. - Infrastructure sectors - Energy sector response to 2006 crisis: change in management of TANESCO, development of a Financial Recovery Plan, and rollout of an investment plan to expand capacity and enhance service delivery. - Staffs encourage adoption of a new Electricity bill to provide sound institutional framework and opportunities for private investment. - Transport sector achievements: approval of a new road bill, full funding of road maintenance, and completion of preliminary work to prioritize and align the Transport Infrastructure Investment Plan (TIIP) with the medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF). - Remaining concerns: management and autonomy of TANROADS, ministry capacity to prioritize TIIP, and smooth budget execution. - Poverty indicators and rural growth - MAIR does not provide information on evolution of poverty indicators due to lack of recent household income and consumption data. - Despite relatively high GDP growth, MAIR notes reduction of income poverty might have been marginal due to relatively modest growth in the agricultural sector. - Need to foster rural sector growth; develop agricultural policy focused on small-scale low productivity farms as part of poverty reduction strategy. - Critical measures: improve availability, distribution and affordability of agro-inputs and extension services. - Natural resources governance: need to curb illegal timber harvesting, enforce revenue collection targets, strengthen forest surveillance units, and improve data collection and analysis on contribution and sustainability of the natural resources sector. #### B. Improved Quality of Life and Social Wellbeing - General progress - Most indicators of social wellbeing and quality of life recorded significant improvement during the period under review. - Education - Good progress toward achieving universal primary education; significant increase in primary enrollment. - Need to expand secondary and tertiary education. - Challenges from enrollment surge: safeguarding education standards and quality at all levels; managing expansion of school facilities. - Authorities need to improve monitoring and evaluation procedures and data reliability. - Better planning and budgeting processes needed, including projections on expansions to identify sector financing gaps. - Staffs concur with need to address significant gender disparities in enrollment at upper secondary and tertiary levels. - Health and social protection - Need to reverse negative trend in maternal mortality and scale up implementation of National HIV/AIDS strategy. - Increase in maternal mortality attributed in part to slow progress in improving referral care and hospital reforms, high levels of malnutrition, and HIV/AIDS complications. - Under-five mortality declined from 155 to 112 between 1999 and 2005. - External evaluation of health reforms (1999–2006) indicates reforms are impacting health outcomes and system performance and efficiency through better management of domestic and external financing. - Social protection mechanisms remain limited; authorities developing a national social protection strategy, but no timeframe for adoption given. - Staffs commend development of the strategy and note challenge of realism given deep and widespread social vulnerability and poverty; suggest leveraging synergies with existing social programs as a possible approach. - Human resources in social sectors - Need to ensure availability of skilled and motivated staff across social services sectors. - Government intends to pilot a new human resources strategy on remuneration package and recruitment in one sector, possibly health, where the human resources gap is estimated at 67 percent. #### C. Governance and Accountability - Reform progress and remaining challenges - MAIR details sustained efforts on comprehensive governance reforms and identifies main challenges: weak domestic accountability, corruption, uneven implementation and weak coordination of core reforms, and wavering commitment to decentralization. - Public service reforms and pay - Public service reforms have created more transparent management systems and better remuneration, particularly for professional, managerial, and technical staff who have been leaving public service at a faster pace than other groups. - Impact of reforms in executing agencies has yet to be fully felt. - Staffs welcome measures to improve public service salaries and encourage authorities to closely monitor their impact. - Staffs urge careful evaluation of impact on government finances, including unfunded pension liabilities, of any further pay reform measures while continuing efforts to establish an effective and fully transparent remuneration system (pay and allowances). - Audit, legislature capacity, and investigations - Substantial improvement in the National Audit Office (NAO) after investment in external audit capacity: external audit reports for 2006 were produced in a timely manner, discussed in Parliament, and published. - Key remaining challenge: follow-up on audit recommendations. - Domestic accountability would be strengthened by enhancing legislature capacity. - MAIR could have noted ongoing investigations into highly visible possible wrongdoing, such as alleged improprieties with management of the external payments arrears (EPA) account by the BoT; appropriate follow-up to these investigations is critical. - Anti-corruption measures - New Prevention and Combating of Corruption Act enacted in 2007 expanded number of corruption offenses. - Strengthening of the Prevention and Combating of Corruption Bureau and enactment of the Public Procurement Act resulted in significant increase in number of cases reported. - Audits by PPRA of procurement practices at 20 spending agencies were published, highlighting need for additional progress. - National Anti-corruption Strategy and Action Plan (NACSAP II) launched in December 2006. - Government invited consultants to carry out a first-ever National Governance and Corruption Survey to assess extent of corruption in public and private sectors. - Initiative to establish a National Anti-corruption Forum welcomed; forum to bring together government, civil society, private sector, and donors to discuss policies, progress, and outcomes of anti-corruption initiatives. ### III. Monitoring and Evaluation - Tanzania has put in place an elaborate Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) architecture to follow MKUKUTA implementation. *Prepared by the Staffs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Development Agency (IDA); Joint Staff Advisory Note on the National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (MKUKUTA) - Annual Implementation Report 2006/07 (December 18, 2007).* ### Section 2 ### _cr0810 - Section 2 ### Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) System Assessment - The system includes "specific institutions, procedures and outputs, which cover the whole budget cycle, from planning to execution." - Emerging view: the system "fails to deliver in a satisfactory way for at least two key reasons: (i) the quality and timeliness of the underlying information are weak, and (ii) the lack of the necessary incentives to integrate the outputs in the domestic budget and accountability systems." - As a result, "the MKUKUTA M&E has remained a mainly donor-oriented system, producing M&E outputs of mixed relevance." - The MAIR highlights "the need to furthering the harmonization of M&E system in government institutions – including at the LGA level – to foster quality reporting and enable better decision making." - Footnote: "The special audit of EPA account transactions during 2005/06 was completed in late November 2007 and the report is expected to be finalized shortly." ### Opportunities to Strengthen Data Production and Reporting - Two initiatives provide opportunities to strengthen economic and social data production and rationalize reporting: - "The preparation of the Tanzania Statistical Master Plan led by the National Bureau of Statistics which sets out how data needs for performance monitoring at national and sub-national level can be met." - "The requirement included in the 2007 Budget Guidelines and originating from the Task Force to Harmonize MKUKUTA, Strategic Planning and MTEF for every institution to produce annual performance reports." - Staffs welcome efforts to: - "strengthen and rationalize domestic systems and anchor the MKUKUTA M&E firmly within the government processes, including the reporting of expenditure outturns classified according to MKUKUTA activities." - The MTEF is noted as "an appropriate framework for costing various poverty-related targets and analysis of alternative scenarios," which "were previously recommended in the JSAN for the MKUKUTA, but have yet to be implemented." - A critical action: "the finalization and implementation of the statistical strategy currently under preparation and emphasis to the importance of preparing adequate performance reports." ### Conclusions and Priority Actions - "The staffs commend the authorities for their sustained efforts with MKUKUTA implementation." - The MAIR "provides a comprehensive assessment of the results achieved and identifies areas for further improvement." - Staffs particularly stress the importance of: - "Strengthening monitoring and evaluation systems and budgeting and planning processes, including the MTEF and analysis of alternative scenarios;" - "Sustaining the efforts to tackle corruption and enhance governance;" - "Focusing efforts on drivers of economic growth, notably by enhancing agricultural sector performance, addressing identified weaknesses in the investment climate - including public infrastructure -, and improving natural resources management;" - "Strengthening fiscal intergovernmental relations and LGAs capacity;" - "Addressing the human resources shortages in key services sectors;" and - "Implementing prudent macroeconomic policies that achieve stated objectives for economic stability." *Source: _cr0810 - Section 2.* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2008/_cr0810.pdf_