## _cr0856 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [_cr0856](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2008/_cr0856.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2008/_cr0856.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2008/_cr0856.pdf.json) --- ### I. Overall assessment — key findings - Kazakhstan subscribed to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) on March 24, 2003 and posted metadata on the DSBB on March 24, 2003. - ROSC data module covers: national accounts, consumer price, producer price, government finance, monetary, and balance of payments (BOP) statistics; assessed against the July 2003 DQAF. - Reassessment versus 2002 ROSC: practices strengthened in transparency, scope, source data, relevance, cross-dataset consistency, and data/metadata accessibility; however, applying July 2003 DQAF produced lower assessments in price statistics and basis for recording for GFS. - Strengths: - Legal and institutional environment provides a solid foundation. - Professionalism, assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs, and assistance to users are strong. - High cross-dataset consistency in many areas. - Risks and weaknesses: - Incomplete implementation of concepts in one dataset can propagate across datasets. - ASRK faces staff capacity risks: reorganization scheduled end-2006 through Q2 of 2007 includes relocation to Astana of about 30 percent of current Almaty staff. - MOF GFS remain on a cash basis; MOF statements do not consolidate the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK) with central and general government. - NBRK classifies subsidiaries of foreign construction and drilling companies expected to operate in Kazakhstan for more than one year as nonresidents; contributes to inconsistencies between GDP by production and GDP by expenditure through overstatement of imports and understatement of GDP by expenditure. - Securities held for investment purposes are valued at historic or amortized cost rather than market prices, partially inconsistent with MFSM guidance. - National accounts source data still include cumulatively reported components; first differences used to approximate quarterly data. - Serviceability and timeliness relative to SDDS: - Kazakhstan takes a flexibility option for periodicity and timeliness of monthly central government operations. - Exceeds SDDS requirements in several areas: - GFS: general government operations monthly estimates within five weeks on a cash basis (SDDS requirement: annual estimates within two quarters). - CPI and PPI: timeliness of one day (SDDS requirement: 30 days). - Monetary statistics: timeliness of 25 days (banking sector accounts requirement: one month) and 7 days (central bank accounts requirement: two weeks). - Remaining inconsistencies: - Internal national accounts discrepancy between GDP by production and expenditure (linked to BOP residency criteria). - Inconsistencies between monetary and GFS on bank financing of government. - Inconsistency between external debt statistics disseminated by the NBRK and the MOF, and the IIP statistics disseminated by the NBRK. - Revision practices needing improvement: revising monetary series, providing advance notice of methodological changes for GFS, monetary, and BOP revisions, and revising published GFS on the basis of audited figures. - Accessibility: - All six datasets are readily available to the public with comprehensive documentation on concepts, scope, classification, basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques. - Users of GFS data should be informed of early access afforded to certain government officials. ### II. DQAF dimension ratings — selected summary (symbols preserved) - Rating scale: O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO = Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not Observed; NA = Not Applicable. - Dimension 0. Prerequisites of quality (selected) - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: National Accounts O; CPI O; PPI O; GFS O; Monetary Statistics O; BOP O - 0.2 Resources: National Accounts LNO; CPI LO; PPI LO; GFS O; Monetary Statistics O; BOP O - 0.3 Relevance: National Accounts O; CPI O; PPI O; GFS LO; Monetary Statistics O; BOP O - 0.4 Other quality management: All datasets O - Dimension 1. Assurances of integrity (selected) - 1.1 Professionalism: All datasets O - 1.2 Transparency: National Accounts O; CPI O; PPI O; GFS LO; Monetary Statistics LO; BOP LO - 1.3 Ethical standards: All datasets O - Dimension 2. Methodological soundness (selected) - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: National Accounts O; CPI O; PPI O; GFS O; Monetary Statistics O; BOP LO - 2.2 Scope: National Accounts O; CPI O; PPI O; GFS LO; Monetary Statistics O; BOP O - 2.3 Classification/sectorization: National Accounts O; CPI O; PPI O; GFS LO; Monetary Statistics LO; BOP O - 2.4 Basis for recording: National Accounts LO; CPI O; PPI O; GFS LO; Monetary Statistics LO; BOP O - Dimension 3. Accuracy and reliability (selected) - 3.1 Source data: National Accounts LO; CPI O; PPI O; GFS O; Monetary Statistics O; BOP O - 3.2 Assessment of source data: All datasets O - 3.3 Statistical techniques: National Accounts LO; CPI LO; PPI LO; GFS O; Monetary Statistics O; BOP O - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs: All datasets O ### III. Agency-specific operational issues and findings - ASRK (Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan) - Legal mandate: full professional independence (Law on Official Statistics Articles 3,4,8); duty to maintain relevance and quality. - Resources and staffing: - ASRK central office total staff: 186. - National Accounts Department staff: 19. - Price and Labor Statistics Department staff: 23. - Full-time staff working on CPI and PPI: 15 (excludes regional price staff). - Vacancies: five in the National Accounts Department and four in the Price and Labor Statistics Department. - About 15 percent of budgeted ASRK headquarters positions currently vacant (agency-level note). - Proposed relocation to Astana will move about 30 percent of current Almaty staff; continuity requires filling vacancies and training new staff. - National accounts specifics: - Follow 1993 SNA; statistical discrepancy shown explicitly and equals one percent of GDP (statistical discrepancy noted elsewhere as "one percent of GDP"). - Quarterly and annual GDP compiled; consistent GDP estimates available from 1998. - Source data: SSR covers 244,855 registered legal entities (as of October 2006): 230,638 small enterprises (including 11,725 foreign enterprises); 12,071 medium enterprises (236 foreign); 2,146 large enterprises (78 foreign). - Unrecorded activities estimated at about 21 percent of GDP; retail trade about 3.12 percent of GDP; construction about 3.38 percent of GDP. - Recommended: allocate more resources to quarterly national accounts; exploit administrative data and conduct small-scale surveys for small businesses; adopt double deflation where feasible. - CPI and PPI: - CPI: HIES sample now includes about 12,000 households (0.3 percent of total households); monthly CPI disseminated on first day following reporting period; weights revised annually; CPI final at first release and not revised. - PPI: covers some 230 commodity groups; monthly PPI estimates disseminated on first day following reporting period; weights revised annually; PPI estimates final at first release and not revised. - Recommendation: change elementary aggregation formula to geometric mean for CPI and PPI; change CPI seasonal imputation to capture beginning-of-season price changes. - Ministry of Finance (MOF / RSD) - Institutional role: RSD primary for GFS; Treasury Committee and State Borrowing Department for debt. - GFS methodological stance: - Methodology broadly consistent with GFSM 1986; data recorded on cash basis; gross debt at face value. - No current program to transition to GFSM 2001. - Monthly republican budget execution data provided to several government bodies prior to public dissemination; prior access is not publicized. - MOF position: cash-basis reporting is final at initial publication and not subject to revision under existing legal framework. - Serviceability: - General government operations: Kazakhstan disseminates monthly (Kazakhstan = M) with timeliness Kazakhstan = 5W (Appendix I entries). - Recommendation: disseminate payables/receivables settled in current period to permit ASRK accrual adjustments; disclose prior access arrangements; consider compiling accrual-based financial balance sheets as first step to GFSM 2001 transition; include NFRK in consolidated government statements. - National Bank (NBRK) - Legal mandate: authorized to collect monetary, BOP, IIP, and external debt statistics (Law No. 2155 and Law on Banks and Banking). - Monetary statistics: - Analytical framework largely in line with MFSM. - Exception: deposit liabilities of NBRK to NFRK are not identified as central government sector. - Securities held for investment purposes not valued at market prices. - Revision practices: follow BOP/IIP cycle; studies of revisions not made public. - Recent improvements: narrow reserve money (NRM) series published from April 2006; NBRK intends to publish holders of NBRK notes by sector within the year. - Recommendation: revalue securities held for investment at market prices; publish additional NBRK notes by sector and definitions of required reserves; resume collection/coverage of credit partnerships if material. - Balance of Payments: - Compiled according to BPM5 but residency treatment of local branches of foreign construction and drilling companies deviates from BPM5; these are not treated as residents, causing misclassification of output as imports. - BOP statistics revised twice a year (October and April) covering two preceding years; no clear distinction published between preliminary, revised, and final data. - Recommendation: treat subsidiaries/local branches of foreign construction and drilling companies as resident for statistical purposes; include revision status (initial, revised, final) in publications. ### IV. Cross-cutting recommendations (priority actions preserved verbatim) - Reconcile MOF data on bank financing of general government with the NBRK’s Statistical Bulletin; MOF could consider taking data on bank financing of general government from the NBRK. - Disseminate sufficient information on payables and receivables from past periods, and settled in the current period, to permit users (for example, ASRK in compiling accounts for the central and general government institutional sectors) to adjust cash basis GFS statistics to an accrual basis. - NBRK should compile and disseminate external debt statistics that are consistent with its IIP statistics; MOF is encouraged to disseminate data on public external debt in line with the NBRK’s statistics. - Treat subsidiaries of foreign construction and drilling companies as resident statistically, subject to NBRK surveys; incorporate survey data from these units when reliable. Note: this methodological change will result in significant revisions to time series, in particular for the current account, and will need careful management (backward revision of time series, preparation of information for users). Expected benefits: improved adherence to internationally-standard concepts of the BOP and reduced discrepancy between GDP by production and GDP by expenditure. - ASRK staffing: fill vacancies and provide training to ensure continuity during Astana reorganization (end-2006 through Q2 2007); pay particular attention to National Accounts and Price programs. - CPI/PPI: consider changing elementary aggregate formula to geometric mean; change CPI imputation for seasonal goods to capture beginning-of-season price changes. - GFS specific: - Advise users in the Statistical Bulletin and on the MOF website that certain officials have prior access to budget execution data. - Provide users with advance notification of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques. - MOF encouraged to re-establish implementation of GFSM 2001 in its statistical plan; as first step compile government financial balance sheets (move toward accrual). - Consider including NFRK operations in consolidated central/general government statements; if included, NBRK should classify liabilities to NFRK as belonging to central government. - When a debtor defaults on government guaranteed debt, the debt should be assumed by the guarantor and shown as government debt; record creditor agreement as a government financial asset to offset assumed liability. - Compile debt data on current residency and sector of debtholder basis to reconcile with NBRK monetary and IIP data. - Establish formal reconciliation process between MOF and NBRK to explain inconsistencies among fiscal, monetary, and IIP data. - Disclose MOF’s revision policy in its statistical publications. - Replace published cumulative budget execution statistics with audited annual data. - Monetary statistics: - Introduce NBRK Statistical Bulletin series “narrow reserve money” (already introduced) and provide definition/data for required reserves. - Resume collection and coverage of credit partnerships in banking survey. - Revalue banks’ holdings of securities for investment purposes at market prices. - Publish additional data on NBRK notes by sector collected by the Central Securities Depository when available. - Balance of payments: - NBRK should include in its publications information on revision status: initial (or preliminary), revised, and final. ### V. Revision and revision-study practices - National accounts: - Revision policy for annual and quarterly accounts is clearly established and published; schedules for flash and subsequent revisions are specified (annual flash not later than two months for production approach; quarterly flash not later than two months for production approach; subsequent first/second/etc. revised estimates with exact timing preserved in source). - CPI and PPI: - Weights revised annually; CPI and PPI estimates described as final when first released and not subject to revision. - Revision studies carried out when weights are revised annually; internal revision analyses used to improve compilation. - Monetary statistics and BOP: - Monetary revisions follow BOP/IIP revision cycle; studies of revisions are not public for monetary statistics. - BOP revisions: data revised twice a year (October and April) covering the two preceding years; full explanations for significant revisions published; no distinction currently made between preliminary, revised, and final data in publications. ### VI. SDDS coverage, periodicity, and timeliness — selected entries (preserved) - National accounts: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = Q; Timeliness SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = NLT 1Q. - Production Index/indices (PPI): Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = M; Kazakhstan = M; Timeliness SDDS = 6W (1M encouraged); Kazakhstan = 12D. - Employment: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = Q; Timeliness SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = 45D. - Wages/earnings: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = M; Timeliness SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = 40D. - Consumer price index: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = M; Kazakhstan = M; Timeliness SDDS = M; Kazakhstan = 1D. - Producer price index: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = M; Kazakhstan = M; Timeliness SDDS = M; Kazakhstan = 1D. - General govt. Operations: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = A; Kazakhstan = M; Timeliness SDDS = 2Q; Kazakhstan = 5W. - Central govt. debt: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = Q; Timeliness SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = 5W. - Analytical accounts of the banking sector: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = M; Kazakhstan = M; Timeliness SDDS = M; Kazakhstan = 25D. - Analytical accounts of the central bank: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = M (1W recommended); Kazakhstan = M; Timeliness SDDS = 2W (1W encouraged); Kazakhstan = 7D. - International Investment Position: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = A (Q recommended); Kazakhstan = Q; Timeliness SDDS = 3Q (1Q encouraged); Kazakhstan = Q. - External debt: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = Q; Timeliness SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = Q. - Exchange rates: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = D; Kazakhstan = D; Timeliness SDDS = ...; Kazakhstan = Same day. - Addendum: Population: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = A; Kazakhstan = A; Timeliness SDDS = ...; Kazakhstan = A. ### VII. Response by the authorities — selected points (Date: January 24, 2008) - ASRK consents to publication of ROSC—Data Module and Detailed Assessments for national accounts, CPI, and PPI. Signed by Zulfiya Medetovna Sultanova, Director, Coordination Department. - MOF reviewed ROSC—Data Module (DQAF of August 17, 2007) and has no objections to publication but requests clarifications: - MOF compiles budget execution on a cash basis in accordance with budget legislation and forwards breakdowns; ASRK has not requested additional data to enable accrual compilation. - Changes to budget execution methodology are effected via legislative acts; legislative acts enter into force ten calendar days following first official publication; users are notified of methodology changes ten days prior to entry into force per MOF comment. - NBRK responses: - NBRK has included reserve deposits series and methodological commentary; intends to publish holders of NBRK notes by sector this year. - Discrepancy between gross external debt and IIP resolved; since April 2007 NBRK publishes fully comparable external debt and IIP data. - Reclassification of subsidiaries of foreign construction and drilling companies as residents planned in line with BOP6 implementation. *Italicized source attribution preserved below.* *Source: Data Quality Assessment Framework—Summary Results (ROSC data module for Kazakhstan); Detailed assessments and agency responses as provided in the _cr0856 PDF.* ### 1. Data Quality Assessment Framework—Summary Results ...............................................8 ### Data Quality Assessment Framework—Summary Results ### I. OVERALL ASSESSMENT - Kazakhstan subscribed to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) on March 24, 2003 and started posting its metadata on the Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) on March 24, 2003. - The ROSC data module covers national accounts, consumer price, producer price, government finance, monetary, and balance of payments (BOP) statistics and assesses these datasets against the July 2003 version of the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). - This report is a reassessment of the 2002 data ROSC (based on the July 2001 DQAF); since 2002 practices have been strengthened in transparency, scope, source data, relevance, cross-dataset consistency, and data and metadata accessibility. - Applying the July 2003 DQAF to largely unchanged statistical techniques led to lower assessments in price statistics and basis for recording for government finance statistics (GFS) than in 2002. - Strengths of Kazakhstan’s statistical system: - Legal and institutional environment provides a solid foundation. - Professionalism, assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs, and assistance to users are strong. - High cross-dataset consistency. - Risks and weaknesses: - Incomplete implementation of concepts in one dataset can propagate across datasets. - The ASRK faces staff capacity risks: a major reorganization scheduled for end-2006 through the second quarter of 2007 includes relocation to Astana of about 30 percent of the current Almaty staff; continuity of national accounts and price programs requires filling vacancies and training new staff. - MOF GFS remain on a cash basis; scope is nonstandard because MOF statements do not consolidate the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK) with central and general government. - NBRK classifies subsidiaries of foreign construction and drilling companies expected to operate in Kazakhstan for more than one year as nonresidents in the BOP (not internationally standard); this contributes to inconsistencies between GDP by production and GDP by expenditure through overstatement of imports and understatement of GDP by expenditure. - Securities held for investment purposes are valued at historic or amortized cost rather than market prices, creating partial inconsistency with MFSM guidelines. - National accounts source data still include cumulatively reported components whose first differences are used to approximate quarterly data; incorporation of new ASRK survey sources has been slowed by staff constraints. - Serviceability and timeliness relative to SDDS: - Kazakhstan takes a flexibility option for periodicity and timeliness of monthly central government operations. - Kazakhstan exceeds SDDS requirements for several datasets: - GFS: general government operations monthly estimates within five weeks on a cash basis (SDDS requirement: annual estimates within two quarters). - CPI and PPI: timeliness of one day (SDDS requirement: 30 days). - Monetary statistics: timeliness of 25 days (banking sector accounts requirement: one month) and seven days (central bank accounts requirement: two weeks). - Remaining data inconsistencies: - Internal national accounts discrepancy between GDP by production and expenditure (linked to BOP residency criteria). - Inconsistencies between monetary and GFS on bank financing of government. - Inconsistency between external debt statistics disseminated by the NBRK and the MOF, and the IIP statistics disseminated by the NBRK. - Revision practices needing improvement: revising monetary series, providing advance notice of methodological changes for GFS, monetary, and BOP revisions, and revising published GFS on the basis of audited figures. - Accessibility: - All six datasets are readily available to the public with comprehensive documentation on concepts, scope, classification, basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques. - Users of GFS data should be informed of early access afforded to certain government officials. ### II. ASSESSMENT BY AGENCY AND DATASET (KEY DIMENSIONS AND RATINGS) - The assessment uses the DQAF four-point rating scale: O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO = Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not Observed; NA = Not Applicable. - Summary of selected DQAF dimension ratings from Table 1 (exact symbols preserved): - Dimension 0. Prerequisites of quality - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: National Accounts O; CPI O; PPI O; GFS O; Monetary Statistics O; BOP O - 0.2 Resources: National Accounts LNO; CPI LO; PPI LO; GFS O; Monetary Statistics O; BOP O - 0.3 Relevance: National Accounts O; CPI O; PPI O; GFS LO; Monetary Statistics O; BOP O - 0.4 Other quality management: All datasets O - Dimension 1. Assurances of integrity - 1.1 Professionalism: All datasets O - 1.2 Transparency: National Accounts O; CPI O; PPI O; GFS LO; Monetary Statistics LO; BOP LO - 1.3 Ethical standards: All datasets O - Dimension 2. Methodological soundness (selected elements) - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: National Accounts O; CPI O; PPI O; GFS O; Monetary Statistics O; BOP LO - 2.2 Scope: National Accounts O; CPI O; PPI O; GFS LO; Monetary Statistics O; BOP O - 2.3 Classification/sectorization: National Accounts O; CPI O; PPI O; GFS LO; Monetary Statistics LO; BOP O - 2.4 Basis for recording: National Accounts LO; CPI O; PPI O; GFS LO; Monetary Statistics LO; BOP O - Dimension 3. Accuracy and reliability (selected elements) - 3.1 Source data: National Accounts LO; CPI O; PPI O; GFS O; Monetary Statistics O; BOP O - 3.2 Assessment of source data: All datasets O - 3.3 Statistical techniques: National Accounts LO; CPI LO; PPI LO; GFS O; Monetary Statistics O; BOP O - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs: All datasets O ### III. STAFF OBSERVATIONS AND IMPLICATIONS (synthesized from report) - Improvement priorities: - Address ASRK staffing vacancies and training to integrate new survey sources into quarterly national accounts and maintain continuity during the Astana reorganization scheduled end-2006 through the second quarter of 2007. - MOF to consider publishing breakdowns of cash-based statistics to enable ASRK to compile accrual-based sector accounts for general government. - MOF should inform users of officials with pre-release access to GFS and provide advance notice of methodological changes. - NBRK should align residency criteria for subsidiaries of foreign construction and drilling companies with international standards to resolve GDP discrepancies. - Move valuation of securities held for investment toward market prices consistent with MFSM guidance. - Resolve outstanding inconsistencies between external debt statistics (NBRK and MOF) and IIP statistics (NBRK); reconcile monetary and GFS data on bank financing of government. - Enhance revision practices: provide advance notice of methodological changes, revise published GFS using audited figures, and improve revision protocols in monetary statistics. - Continued strengths to build on: - Legal/institutional framework, transparency improvements since 2002, comprehensive public documentation for datasets, and frequent user outreach including ASRK Public Council user group for national accounts. *Source: Data Quality Assessment Framework—Summary Results (ROSC data module for Kazakhstan).* ### 3.5 Revision studies ### 3.5 Revision studies ### Practice classifications and definitions - Practice observed: current practices generally in observance meet or achieve the objectives of DQAF internationally accepted statistical practices without any significant deficiencies. - Practice largely observed: some departures, but these are not seen as sufficient to raise doubts about the authorities’ ability to observe the DQAF practices. - Practice largely not observed: significant departures and the authorities will need to take significant action to achieve observance. - Practice not observed: most DQAF practices are not met. - Not applicable: used only exceptionally when statistical practices do not apply to a country’s circumstances. ### Agency of Statistics (ASRK): key findings and operational issues - Legal/institutional mandate: - ASRK ensures the functioning and improvement of a unified statistical information system and prepares and implements a program of official statistics after government approval. - Article 3 of the Law on Official Statistics requires maintaining relevance and practical utility of statistics. - Article 4 supports a strong focus on quality; Article 8 guarantees full professional independence; Law obliges adherence to integrity, neutrality, and objectivity. - Resources and staffing: - ASRK is undergoing reorganization and relocation to Astana. - About 15 percent of budgeted ASRK headquarters positions are currently vacant. - Staff attrition has resulted in an acute staff shortage in the National Accounts Department. - Need to allocate more resources to the quarterly national accounts program and to maintain adequate staff levels and a tight monthly compilation schedule in Price and Labor Statistics during organizational change. - User engagement and relevance: - ASRK holds 10 media conferences through the year and issues numerous publications and electronic disseminations, most including a feedback form. - An ASRK Analysis and Publication Department and Coordination Department systematically collect user feedback and route it for follow up. - A national accounts user group established within the Public Council framework is expected to improve outreach and help reduce respondent burden (e.g., collecting discrete rather than cumulative data). - Transparency and confidentiality: - Website disseminates the Law on Official Statistics and documentation on the legal and institutional environment. - Survey forms reference the Law on Official Statistics and data confidentiality. - Data are released simultaneously to all users. - Quality management: - Continuity of national accounts and price programs during reorganization will require close attention to recruiting and training qualified staff. ### Ministry of Finance (RSD/MOF): key findings and limitations - Institutional responsibilities: - Reporting and Statistics Department (RSD) has primary responsibility for government finance statistics (GFS); Treasury Committee and State Borrowing Department cover government debt and borrowing. - Powers and responsibilities defined in Budget Code No. 548 of April 24, 2004 (amended July 5, 2006). - Data sharing via execution of data provision agreements specifying lists and reporting formats. - Resources and systems: - RSD has sufficient staff and computing resources for existing tasks. - Treasury Integrated Information System (TIIS), implemented in 2004, improved budget operations efficiency. - If government migrates to GFSM 2001, additional staff training and possibly more staff would be needed; MOF has no current plans to transition to GFSM 2001. - Relevance and methodological limits: - Methodological Council (chaired by the Minister) reviews methodology, accuracy, and serviceability and meets at least once per quarter. - Published MOF statistics do not identify payables and receivables from past periods and settled in the current period, which would permit users (e.g., ASRK) to adjust cash-basis statistics to an accrual basis. - Transparency and prior access: - Laws and practices governing budget data collection, compilation, and dissemination are available on the MOF website and in the Statistical Bulletin. - GFS/SDDS metadata are posted on ASRK’s website and the IMF DSBB. - Monthly republican budget execution data are provided to several government bodies before public dissemination; this prior access is not publicized and there is no formal advance notification process to all users. - Ethical standards: - MOF staff governed by civil service codes of ethics. ### National Bank (NBRK): institutional and quality assessments - Legal/institutional framework: - Law on the Republic of Kazakhstan National Bank (1995; Articles 8, 61) and Law on Banks and Banking (Article 54) authorize NBRK to collect monetary, financial, BOP, and IIP statistics. - Data sharing with ASRK and other agencies is adequate; confidentiality protected by law; legal mandates encourage response. - Resources and staffing: - Staff, financial, and computing resources are adequate; staff retention in the Statistics Division has been good since 1995. - Training provided on an ongoing basis; staff organized efficiently across collection, compilation, and dissemination. - Methodological orientation and user outreach: - NBRK consistently aims to adopt international standards in monetary, financial, and BOP statistics. - No formal user surveys, but active consultation with users via outreach programs, seminars, and press conferences. - Quality management and validation: - Management strongly supports statistical departments’ budget and resource requests; regular internal reviews identify problems in collection, processing, and dissemination. - Quality issues assessed in coordination with ASRK; trade-offs between accuracy and timeliness are considered. - Transparency and prior access: - Laws and codes published on the NBRK website; SDDS metadata available. - Users outside NBRK do not have prior access to data; users are notified of major changes when they occur but not prior to their introduction. - Ethical standards: - NBRK staff follow the civil service code of honor. ### National accounts: methodological soundness, accuracy, serviceability, accessibility - Concepts, scope, classification, and valuation: - National accounts follow System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA). - Scope meets minimum requirements established by the Intersecretariat Working Group on National Accounts, and includes several recommended accounts. - Classifications broadly follow international practice with national extensions. - Valuation rules follow 1993 SNA; transactions are recorded in principle on an accrual basis except general government data, which are on a cash basis. - Source data and statistical techniques: - Data collection program is sound except for newly-established sample surveys; supplementary surveys needed to improve estimates of small business activity. - Need to eliminate collection of cumulative data when discrete data are already collected. - Imputation and adjustment methods are appropriate; available data should be used to compile volume estimates via double deflation. - Assessment, validation, and revisions: - Source data routinely assessed for coverage and errors; validation procedures are appropriate; statistical discrepancy is small and shown explicitly. - Revisions are studied regularly and lessons applied to improve estimates. - Periodicity, timeliness, and consistency: - GDP estimates compiled annually and quarterly; timeliness meets SDDS requirements. - Consistent GDP estimates available from 1998. - Statistical discrepancy is one percent of GDP. - Differences exist between national accounts and BOP because output of certain foreign construction companies is incorrectly treated as imports in the BOP. - Revision policy and dissemination: - Revision policy for annual and quarterly national accounts is clearly established, punctually followed, and published in the annual statistical plan. - National accounts data are released simultaneously to all users following the advance release calendar; disseminated electronically and in publications at disaggregated levels with charts, tables, and explanatory commentary. - Metadata disseminated at different levels: methodological notes, SDDS metadata, and a comprehensive methodological guidebook (2006). - ASRK provides knowledgeable user support; publications identify contact individuals and a comprehensive catalog of publications is published in print and online. ### Consumer Price Index (CPI): methodology, accuracy, serviceability, accessibility - Concepts, scope, and coverage: - CPI concepts and definitions for household consumption expenditures are consistent with 1993 SNA and determine CPI weights. - Weights determined at the most detailed COICOP level and include expenditure on owner-occupied housing services. - CPI covers all resident households, urban and rural; geographically covers 14 oblasts, 27 districts, Almaty, Astana, and three other large cities. - CPI includes housing costs such as rents and, since 2004, owner-occupied housing; illegal market transactions are not included. - Source data and sampling: - HIES for index weights and a monthly price survey follow international good practices; sample design and estimation procedures represent the survey universe. - ASRK collects regularly reviewed information on sampling and nonsampling errors for all surveys. - Statistical techniques and potential issues: - Overall use of sound statistical techniques to ensure accuracy and reliability. - International guidance recommends the geometric mean rather than the ratio of average prices for elementary aggregation of price relatives. - Imputation method for some seasonal items in long time series has a potential flaw. - Validation, revisions, and consistency: - CPI compared with other major price indices such as the producer price index. - Revision study carried out when weights are revised annually. - CPI estimates are internally consistent across classifications; CPI estimates are consistent with national accounts and other price statistics systems. - Periodicity, timeliness, and dissemination: - Periodicity and timeliness meet SDDS requirements. - Monthly CPI estimates are disseminated on the first day following the reporting period. - CPI weight revision cycle is predetermined and stable year to year; weights revised annually and CPI estimates are final when first released and are not subject to revision. - Metadata and user assistance: - Comprehensive methodological publications accessible via the ASRK website provide compilation details. - ASRK provides strong and knowledgeable user support; publications identify contact individuals and a comprehensive catalog of publications is available in print and online. *Source: _cr0856 - 3.5 Revision studies (IMF assessment excerpts).* ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2. Methodological soundness ### Producer Price Index (PPI) - Concepts and definitions - Concepts and definitions used to compile the producer price index (PPI) follow international guidelines. - Output PPI weights are based on the market value of industrial output following the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA). - Transaction specifications for individual goods to be priced follow the guidelines given in the Producer Price Index Manual. - Scope - The PPI covers core industrial activities and selected energy and production services and covering some 230 commodity groups. - Enterprise coverage of the statistical enterprise register, used for the PPI establishment sample, and the product coverage broadly follows the 1993 SNA including all resident enterprises. - Classification/sectorization - The PPI is based on European NACE- and CPA-derived activity and product classifications. - Basis for recording - The output PPI uses weights valued at basic prices, whereas purchaser’s prices are used to value the input PPI weights. - Source data - Source data for the PPI weights and prices are collected from comprehensive data programs. - Up-to-date State Statistical Register and a sectoral catalog of enterprises are used for the establishment sample frame. - Source data for weights and prices are consistent with the definitions, scope, and classification of the PPI. - Assessment of source data - The Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan (ASRK) collects regularly reviewed information on both sampling and nonsampling errors for all surveys. - Regional offices analyze price movements of same products from different enterprises to identify nontypical price movements. - Statistical techniques - Overall, the ASRK utilizes sound statistical techniques to ensure the accuracy and reliability of PPI compilation. - Current international guidance recommends the geometric mean rather than the ratio of average prices for elementary aggregation of price relatives. - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - Changes in the sub-level PPI are compared with the prices of agricultural products, the input producer prices, and export prices. - Revision studies - A revision study is carried out when weights are revised annually. - Periodicity and timeliness - Periodicity and timeliness meet the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) requirements. - The monthly PPI estimates are disseminated on the first day following the reporting period. - Consistency - The PPI estimates for the different classifications are internally consistent in that the all-item aggregate is invariant to aggregation by products or industries. - The PPI estimates are consistent with the national accounts and with other price statistics systems. - Revision policy and practice - The PPI weight revision cycle is predetermined and stable from year to year and the users are well aware of this schedule. - The weights are revised annually but the PPI estimates are final when first released and are not subject to revision. - Data accessibility - The ASRK produces a wide range of publications where the PPI is included in a clear manner with accompanying charts, tables, and analysis of current-period developments to facilitate user understanding. - Metadata accessibility - A comprehensive set of methodological publications, all accessible through the ASRK website, provide information on the PPI compilation at various levels of detail. - Assistance to users - The ASRK provides knowledgeable user support for its statistical output. - All statistical publications identify individuals who may be contacted by mail, telephone, facsimile, or by e-mail. - The ASRK publishes a comprehensive catalog of publications in print and on the Internet. ### Government Finance Statistics - Concepts and definitions - Methodology for compiling fiscal data is broadly consistent with the IMF’s A Manual on Government Finance Statistics (GFSM 1986). - Scope - Institutional coverage comprises the units of the State budget, which consolidates the Republican (central) and local government budgets. - Data on the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK), an extrabudgetary fund that is conceptually part of the Republican (central) government, are concurrently published but are not consolidated in the presentation of Republican or State (general government) budget data. - Classification/sectorization - The budget classification is broadly consistent with GFSM 1986 principles. - Under Chapter 5 of the Budget Code, a uniform budget classification is used to record the budget receipts and expenditure for all levels of government. - Debt assumption under government guarantees and strict residency basis do not follow GFSM methodology. - Basis for recording - Data are recorded on a cash basis. - Gross debt is recorded at face value. - The authorities have no program for transition to the accrual methodology of the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001. - Source data - Source data are based on accounts kept by the Ministry of Finance Treasury Committee in its Integrated Information System. - Debt data are based on the entries of the Treasury Committee. - Assessment of source data - Statistics on budgetary operations (other than data on foreign financed investment projects submitted by the implementing agencies) are compiled from administrative records on government transactions and the stock of public debt. - Statistical techniques - Data are compiled using software systems conforming to methodology prescribed by the Budget Code. - Data on nonbank financing is estimated using methodology recommended by the IMF. - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - Daily reconciliation of Treasury Committee and National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NBRK) data validate revenue and expenditure transactions against financing data. - Revision studies - Budget execution data are not normally replaced by audited data to allow revision studies. - Periodicity and timeliness - Data on the execution of the State and Republican budgets are disseminated monthly. - Breakdown of domestic financing into bank and nonbank financing is compiled quarterly. - Debt data for the Republican (central) and local governments and the NBRK are disseminated quarterly. - Consistency - Budget data processing procedures ensure that the monthly data link consistently to annual data. - 2003 and 2004 data were adjusted to account for discontinuities arising from changes to methodology. - The Treasury Committee maintains a record of all borrowing in foreign currencies and is able to reconcile financing data with changes in debt. - Although revisions of budget execution due to auditing are approved by the Parliament of the Republic of Kazakhstan and made public, their implications for government finance statistics are not analyzed. - There are inconsistencies in the level of bank financing in the government finance and monetary statistics. - Revision policy and practice - Due to a policy of not revising published statistics, published cumulative budget execution statistics are not replaced by audited annual data. - The policy of nonrevision is not disclosed in statistical publications. - Data accessibility - Statistics on budgetary government operations are presented in a way that allows major aggregates and balancing items to be identified and related to detailed underlying data. - The information presented is suitable for use in budget development and monitoring. - Statistics provided approximate the detail and coverage set out in the GFSM 1986 tables. - Monthly data on the operations of the NFRK are disseminated concurrently with the budget data. - In the monthly Statistical Bulletin, discrete quarterly data are presented for the latest year and the previous year. - Although release dates are provided in advance on the IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) website for government operations and debt, the MOF does not issue an advance calendar for its own releases of budget execution and debt data. - Metadata accessibility - A summary of the methodology, explanatory notes, and concepts and definitions used is published in the monthly Statistical Bulletin and on the websites of the Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan (http://www.stat.kz) and the IMF (http://www.dsbb.imf.org). - Certain officials have prior unpublicized access to data. - Assistance to users - The MOF Statistical Bulletin and website provide contact persons for statistics on government operations. - The MOF provides reasonably timely responses to queries, as required by the Budget Code. ### Monetary Statistics - Concepts and definitions - Analytical framework used in compiling monetary statistics is largely in line with the IMF’s Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM). - Scope - Scope of monetary statistics is generally in line with MFSM guidelines. - Credit partnerships have been excluded from monetary statistics because of a change in their regulatory status as financial institutions; credit partnerships are presently a very small part of the banking system. - Classification/sectorization - Classification of instruments and sectorization of institutional units largely conform to MFSM guidelines. - Exception: deposit liabilities of the NBRK to the NFRK are not identified as belonging to the central government sector. - Basis for recording - Basis for recording is broadly in line with MFSM guidelines. - Market exchange rates are now used to convert foreign currency accounts into domestic currency. - Securities held for investment purposes are still not valued at market prices. - Source data - Source data from the NBRK and banks’ charts of accounts provide sufficiently detailed information for compiling monetary statistics. - A problem involving the residency status of source data has been resolved by collecting supplementary data. - Assessment of source data - Automated cross-checking of data on a bank-by-bank basis against other data sources is routinely done. - Statistical techniques - Statistical techniques are sound. - Electronic reporting, data processing procedures, and data compilation practices enable the production of accurate and timely monetary statistics. - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - The NBRK’s computer system checks balance sheet data against supplementary information and automatically generates error reports of data inconsistencies. - Revision studies - Revision studies are undertaken by examining banks’ explanations of reclassifications in the source data to highlight reporting issues that may warrant clarification. - Periodicity and timeliness - Data periodicity and timeliness follow Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) standards. - Consistency - Statistics are largely consistent within the dataset and over time. - Inconsistencies between monetary and IIP data have been resolved but inconsistencies between monetary and government finance statistics data on bank financing of the government sector remain unresolved. - Revision policy and practice - Revisions implicitly follow the balance of payments/international investment position (IIP) revision cycle because they are made whenever inconsistencies with IIP data suggest a problem on the monetary side. - Revisions are also made when changes occur in the compilation methodology. - Data on NBRK notes by sector are not published when they become available. - Studies of revisions are not made public. - Data accessibility - Monetary statistics are presented in a clear manner using tables. - Methodological notes and definitions of indicators are included in the Russian and Kazakh versions of the NBRK’s Statistical Bulletin. - Statistics are released on a pre-announced schedule, made available to users at the same time, and the NBRK’s website has been significantly enhanced in recent years. - Metadata accessibility - SDDS metadata describes the broad scope, main concepts, and definitions used in compiling monetary statistics. - Methodological notes are also presented on the NBRK’s website. - The NBRK’s paper publications, website, and SDDS metadata provide alternative levels of detail on compilation methodology. - Assistance to users - Contact information on monetary statistics is available on the SDDS webpage and in the Statistical Bulletin. - Major NBRK publications can be downloaded free of charge from the NBRK website. ### Balance of Payments (BOP) Statistics - Concepts and definitions - BOP is compiled in concordance with the Balance of Payments Statistics Manual, fifth edition (BPM5). - Local branches of foreign construction and drilling companies are not considered resident entities, which is not in accordance with the residency concept of the BPM5 and the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA). - Scope - All types of transactions between resident and nonresident units are covered. - Unrecorded transactions are estimated, with the exception of foreign currencies in cash held by individuals which are not subject to any evaluation. - Geographical coverage comprises the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan. - Classification/sectorization - Compilation and presentation of the BOP meet BPM5 recommendations for classification and sectorization. - Basis for recording - Transactions are valued at market prices and converted at the exchange rate at the date of the transaction. - Stocks of assets and liabilities are recorded on the basis of market value. - BOP flows are on an accrual basis, except for dividends on direct and portfolio investment which are recorded at the time they are paid. - Source data - Compilation of the BOP is essentially based on two series of data sources: general merchandise trade statistics from customs data, and other transactions compiled from surveys carried out by the NBRK. - Coverage is very comprehensive and data are reported on a timely fashion. - Assessment of source data - Verification pertains to consistency checks within the survey form, ensuring the quality and reliability of the information provided and further enhanced by linking the data at subsequent levels. - Statistical techniques - Statistical techniques are used to complete or adjust the source data in several items of the BOP, in particular the current account (adjustments to trade data to account for shuttle trade, estimates of travel, and compensation of employees, migrant transfers). - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - Data reported by banks for monetary statistics are reconciled with BOP transactions. - Data reported by enterprises are checked against data received within the currency regulation regimes. - Revision studies - Although BOP statistics are constantly revised, no studies are carried out to assess the initial estimates against revised or final estimate for a given period of time. - Periodicity and timeliness - BOP statistics are disseminated quarterly, within one quarter after the reference period, which meets the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) requirements. - Consistency - Statistical series are sufficiently detailed to check that data are internally consistent. - Time series are not completely consistent since the shift in responsibility for collecting data of enterprises from the Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the NBRK in 1999. - Users cannot completely reconcile BOP/IIP statistics with other data sets such as external debt and national accounts statistics. - Revision policy and practice - Data are revised twice a year, in October and April. - Revisions of data are made for the two preceding years, and full BOP series are published for these two years. - Particularly with regard to significant revisions, full explanations of the underlying reasons are published. - No distinction is made between preliminary, revised, and final data. - Data accessibility - BOP statistics are published in their standard (detailed) and analytic (short) presentations. - Data are released on the NBRK’s Internet website. - Hard copies of BOP statistics are available monthly in the Statistical Bulletin, quarterly in The Balance of Payments and External Debt of the Republic of Kazakhstan, and in the Annual Report of the NBRK. - An advance release calendar that gives the precise release dates for the next twelve months is disseminated on the NBRK’s Internet website. - Metadata accessibility - Methodological notes are disseminated on the NBRK’s website, and details on the methodology are published in The Balance of Payments and External Debt of the Republic of Kazakhstan. - Assistance to users - The NBRK’s publications and website indicate the names and references of contact points for each subject field. *Source: _cr0856 - 2. Methodological soundness* ### 12. Based on the review of Kazakhstan’s statistical practices, discussions with the data ### _cr0856 - 12. Based on the review of Kazakhstan’s statistical practices, discussions with the data ### Cross-cutting recommendations - Reconcile MOF data on bank financing of general government with the NBRK’s Statistical Bulletin; MOF could consider taking data on bank financing of general government from the NBRK. - Disseminate sufficient information on payables and receivables from past periods, and settled in the current period, to permit users (for example, ASRK in compiling accounts for the central and general government institutional sectors) to adjust cash basis GFS statistics to an accrual basis. - NBRK should compile and disseminate external debt statistics that are consistent with its IIP statistics; MOF is encouraged to disseminate data on public external debt in line with the NBRK’s statistics. - Treat subsidiaries of foreign construction and drilling companies as resident statistically, subject to NBRK surveys; incorporate survey data from these units when reliable. Note: this methodological change will result in significant revisions to time series, in particular for the current account, and will need careful management (backward revision of time series, preparation of information for users). Expected benefits: improved adherence to internationally-standard concepts of the BOP and reduced discrepancy between GDP by production and GDP by expenditure. ### National accounts - In view of staff attrition on the eve of the ASRK headquarters reorganization, give close attention to filling vacancies with qualified applicants and providing training to new staff to ensure program continuity of national accounts and price statistics. - ASRK is encouraged to use the recently established users’ group to monitor users’ needs systematically and periodically (for example biannually), to provide feedback on data quality, detail, and possible future developments, and to inform users on specific aspects of current data—particularly compilation and dissemination of national accounts data by discrete (quarterly) periods rather than cumulatively. - Investigate options for streamlining the statistical program by focusing resources on collecting and disseminating data by discrete time periods and providing more resources to quarterly national accounts to make greater use of such data. - Exploit administrative data sources and, as needed, conduct small-scale supplementary surveys to improve coverage of small businesses in activities such as retail trade and construction. - Use available data to compile volume estimates via double deflation. ### Consumer and producer price indices - Consider changing the elementary aggregate formula of both indices to a geometric mean, as recommended by the CPI Manual and PPI Manual. - Change the imputation method for seasonal goods in the CPI so the index picks up the price change at the beginning of a new season. The price change should be based on the imputed value and the new season price at the time the seasonal item appears in the price collection. ### Government finance statistics - Advise users in the Statistical Bulletin and on the MOF website that certain officials have prior access to budget execution data. - Provide users with advance notification of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques. - MOF is encouraged to re-establish implementation of the GFSM 2001 in its statistical plan; despite being part of the MOF’s forward program in the 2002 data ROSC, the mission was informed that the MOF has no current plans to undertake this work. - As a first step toward GFSM 2001 transition, MOF could compile government financial balance sheets, bringing the basis for recording to the accrual standard. Expected benefit: improved fitness for policy use of GFS and national accounts. - Consider including operations of the NFRK in coverage of central and general government when compiling consolidated statements of government operations. - If MOF includes the NFRK in consolidated statements, NBRK should classify its liabilities to the NFRK as belonging to the central government sector, in line with recommended GFS treatment. - When a debtor defaults on government guaranteed debt, the debt should be assumed by the guarantor and shown as government debt; the creditor agreement with the borrower should be recorded as a government financial asset to offset the assumed government debt liability in the government’s balance sheet. This presentation enhances transparency but requires dissemination of government financial balance sheets. - Compile debt data on a current residency and sector of debt holder basis that reconciles with NBRK monetary and IIP data. - Establish a formal reconciliation process between MOF and NBRK to explain inconsistencies among fiscal, monetary, and IIP data. - Disclose MOF’s revision policy in its statistical publications. - Replace published cumulative budget execution statistics with audited annual data. ### Monetary statistics - Introduce a new NBRK Statistical Bulletin series “narrow reserve money” to supplement existing reserve money; also provide definition of and data for required reserves to allow users to better understand relationship among the three measures of reserve money. - Resume collection of data on and coverage of credit partnerships in the banking system survey; although currently a small part of the banking system, as unsupervised financial institutions they may grow to become material. - Revalue banks’ holdings of securities for investment purposes at market prices, not historic or amortized cost. - Publish additional data on NBRK notes by sector collected by the Central Securities Depository when available. ### Balance of payments statistics - NBRK should include in its publications information on the revision status of the data disseminated: initial (or preliminary), revised, and final. ### Appendix I — SDDS Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness (selected entries preserved as in source) - National accounts: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = Q; Timeliness SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = NLT 1Q. - Production Index/indices: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = M; Kazakhstan = M; Timeliness SDDS = 6W (1M encouraged); Kazakhstan = 12D. - Employment: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = Q; Timeliness SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = 45D. - Unemployment: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = Q; Timeliness SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = 45D. - Wages/earnings: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = M; Timeliness SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = 40D. - Consumer price index: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = M; Kazakhstan = M; Timeliness SDDS = M; Kazakhstan = 1D. - Producer price index: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = M; Kazakhstan = M; Timeliness SDDS = M; Kazakhstan = 1D. - General govt. Operations: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = A; Kazakhstan = M; Timeliness SDDS = 2Q; Kazakhstan = 5W. - Central govt. debt: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = Q; Timeliness SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = 5W. - Analytical accounts of the banking sector: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = M; Kazakhstan = M; Timeliness SDDS = M; Kazakhstan = 25D. - Analytical accounts of the central bank: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = M (1W recommended); Kazakhstan = M; Timeliness SDDS = 2W (1W encouraged); Kazakhstan = 7D. - Official reserve assets (Reserves template): Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = M (W recommended); Kazakhstan = M; Timeliness SDDS = M; Kazakhstan = 7D. - Merchandise trade: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = M; Kazakhstan = M; Timeliness SDDS = 8W (4–6W encouraged). - International Investment Position: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = A (Q recommended); Kazakhstan = Q; Timeliness SDDS = 3Q (1Q encouraged); Kazakhstan = Q. - External debt: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = Q; Timeliness SDDS = Q; Kazakhstan = Q. - Exchange rates: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = D; Kazakhstan = D; Timeliness SDDS = ...; Kazakhstan = Same day. - Addendum: Population: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity SDDS = A; Kazakhstan = A; Timeliness SDDS = ...; Kazakhstan = A. ### Response by the Authorities (selected points) - Document heading: Response by the Authorities; Date: January 24, 2008. - Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan (ASRK) consents to publication of the ROSC—Data Module and Detailed Assessments for national accounts, CPI, and PPI. Signed: Zulfiya Medetovna Sultanova, Director, Coordination Department, Coordinator for Kazakhstan, Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. - Ministry of Finance (MOF) reviewed the ROSC—Data Module and Detailed Assessments Using the DQAF of August 17, 2007, and on the whole has no objections to their publication, but requests inclusion of clarifying information in the authorities’ response. - MOF comment on item 6: MOF compiles budget execution reporting on a cash basis in accordance with the budget legislation and forwards it to ASRK with requested breakdowns; ASRK has not requested additional data to enable compilation of accrual-based sector accounts for general government. - MOF comment on item 7 and IMF recommendations: Changes and additions to budget execution methodology are made through approval of a special legislative act. In accordance with Republic of Kazakhstan Law No. 213 of March 24, 1998 “On Regulatory Legal Acts,” legislative acts enter into force ten calendar days following their first official publication. Therefore, government finance statistics users are notified of changes in budget execution methodology ten days prior to entry into force. Experts and public discussion mechanisms may be involved in draft law preparation. *International Monetary Fund — REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module (Volume I and Response by the Authorities, January 24, 2008)* ### Section II. Assessment by Agency and Dataset ### _cr0856 - Section II. Assessment by Agency and Dataset ### Government finance statistics: Ministry of Finance responses and practices - Ministry position on cash-basis budget reporting: - Reporting on budget execution must be reliable and represent the true nature of operations; budget execution data compiled on a cash basis are final at initial publication and are not subject to revision. - IMF recommendations regarding the revision of reporting data cannot be followed because of the legal status of cash-basis data. - Provision of supplementary information: - Ministry is prepared to provide data on payables and receivables from past periods settled in the current period to the Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan (ASRK) upon request to assist adjustments from cash to accrual basis. - Dissemination timing and periodicity: - Data on execution of the state, republican, and local budgets (summaries and broken down by oblasts and the cities of Almaty and Astana) are posted by the Ministry in aggregate form before the 25th of the month following the reporting month on the “State Budget and National Fund” page of the Republic of Kazakhstan Ministry of Finance website. - Consequently, periodicity and timeliness for general government sector and central government operations are monthly, rather than every five weeks. - The monthly periodical Statistical Bulletin is released once a month, before the 15th of the second month following the reporting month. - Audit and revisions: - Under the RK Budget Code, reporting on budget execution is subject to internal and external controls; however, after being audited, reporting data may not be changed because they are supposed to reflect the true nature of operations. - Institutional changes and program administrators: - Decree No. 302 of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan of March 27, 2007 established the National Space Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan. - Number of administrators of republican budget programs is now 37, of which 17 are ministries and 21 [sic] are central agencies. - Other procedural points: - In addition to the Statistical Bulletin, the Ministry posts a report on republican budget execution in aggregate form before the 25th of the month following the reporting month. - The Ministry has taken IMF recommendations into account and will review and incorporate them into relevant amendments to the legislation. ### Responses to DQAF items and cross-cutting comments - Scope and classification: - Government finance statistics include expenditures whose classification is provided under item 5.1.1 (page 108 [90]); the Ministry notes ambiguity where a version of this item refers only to defense-related expenditure. - Access and user notification: - On gaining access to republican budget execution data: the Ministry reiterates publication timing (aggregate form before the 25th of the month following the reporting month). - Advance notification of users of major changes in methodology is addressed in the Ministry's earlier responses. - Analysis of revisions and timeliness: - The Ministry’s opinion regarding analysis of data revisions (item 3.5.1) is that cash-basis data are final and not subject to revision (see above). - Comments regarding timeliness of dissemination of budget execution data (item 4.1.2) are provided above. - Replacement of cumulative data by audited annual data: - Item 4.3.3: audited annual data cannot replace cumulative budget execution data because audited reporting data may not be changed under the RK Budget Code. - Publication frequency: - Item 5.1.3: Statistical Bulletin released once a month, before the 15th of the second month following the reporting month. ### Monetary statistics: National Bank actions and intentions - Publications and methodological changes: - A data series for reserve deposits of banks at the National Bank has been included in the Statistical Bulletin of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan; definitions of narrow base money and reserve deposits were added to the “Methodological Commentary” section. - The National Bank intends to begin publication this year of data on holders of NBRK notes with a breakdown by sectors of the economy. - Classification coordination with Ministry of Finance: - If the Ministry of Finance includes National Fund resources in the consolidated report on government operations, the National Bank is prepared to classify its liabilities to the National Fund as liabilities to central government. ### Balance of payments and external debt statistics: reconciliations and coverage improvements - Resolution of discrepancies: - The discrepancy between gross external debt and the international investment position has been resolved. - Since April 2007, the National Bank has been including money market instruments issued by the Ministry of Finance and the National Bank in the domestic market and acquired by nonresidents in the secondary market as part of external debt; it has been publishing fully comparable external debt statistics and international investment position data since April 2007. - Resident classification and BOP6: - Reclassification of subsidiaries of foreign construction and drilling companies as residents is planned as the new sixth edition of the IMF Balance of Payments Manual (BOP6) is put into practice; following this, these units will be covered by NBRK surveys in the same way as other resident units engaged in foreign economic operations. - Labor migrants and compensation of employees: - A 2006 effort to legalize labor migrants from CIS countries produced data used to add an estimate of wages paid to unregistered labor migrants from CIS countries to debit entries for compensation of employees compiled on the basis of statistical reporting by enterprises. - Oil sector coverage: - Since 2007 the National Bank has worked to revise the coverage of enterprises included in the oil sector for balance of payments compilation; results are expected to be published for the first time in late 2008. ### DQAF and ROSC materials: document context and organization - Document purpose and provenance: - Detailed assessments by dataset of elements and indicators underlying data quality dimensions for Kazakhstan’s ROSC—Data Module. - Prepared by the Statistics Department; Approved by Robert W. Edwards and Mohsin S. Khan; January 24, 2008. - Contents overview (selected items and page indicators preserved): - Sections include National Accounts, Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, Government Finance Statistics, Monetary Statistics, Balance of Payments Statistics. - Tables of summarized DQAF results for each dataset are included (e.g., Table 4: Government Finance Statistics; Table 5: Monetary Statistics; Table 6: Balance of Payments). - National accounts: legal and institutional prerequisites (high-level findings) - ASRK is identified as the central executive agency on statistics per Government Resolution No. 1460 of December 31, 2004 and Law on Official Statistics (No. 98-1 dated May 7, 1997, supplemented by amendments No. 280-II in January 2002, and No. 14-III in 2004). - The current statistical program includes a three-year program for developing statistics (2006−2008) and an annual operational Plan of Statistical Activities embedded in the budgetary process. - Data sharing and coordination are supported by Article 10 of the Law on Official Statistics and cooperation agreements among ASRK, MOF, and NBRK; major coordination may be raised in the Council on Economic Policy (established October 25, 2003 by Government Resolution No. 202). - Confidentiality protections: Articles 11−13 of the Law on Official Statistics, ASRK rules, Order No. 72 dated July 10, 2002; punitive provisions referenced in Article 383 of the Code of Administrative Violations (effective January 30, 2001). - Legal basis for compulsory reporting: Articles 3 and 10 of the Law on Official Statistics; Government Resolution No. 1460 (December 31, 2004) requires accuracy and compliance with formats and deadlines; noncompliance punishable under the Administrative Code. - Reporting practice: response from large- and medium-size reporters is adequate; small-business reporting often inaccurate and being addressed via random sampling and reduced respondent burden; outreach to foreign oil and gas companies continues to improve compliance. *Source: _cr0856 - Section II. Assessment by Agency and Dataset* ### 0.2 Resources ### _cr0856 - 0.2 Resources ### 0.2.1 Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing are commensurate with statistical programs - ASRK central office total staff: 186. - National Accounts Department staff: 19. - Price and Labor Statistics Department staff: 23. - Full-time staff working on CPI and PPI: 15 (including information technology staff assigned to the price programs). Note: this excludes regional offices’ price staff undertaking a major part of the collection and validation tasks. - National accounts staff organized in four divisions covering: - gross domestic product (GDP) by Production and Expenditure Approach—compilation of annual and quarterly GDP estimates, as well as by income approach on an annual basis; - integrated Economic Accounts—the full sequence of accounts and accounts by institutional sectors; - supply-use tables; - financial Statistics Data—design and processing of data from the annual report of enterprises (balance sheet and profit-loss statement). - Satellite accounts of tourism and accumulation accounts compiled but presently not disseminated. - Accounts for 2005 are being finalized for publication in early 2007. - All staff members have a university degree. - National accounts staff received training in national accounts in the early 1990s from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. - Key price statistics staff received training in price statistics from various European, American, and international statistical agencies in the early 1990s. - Price statistics staff have periodically participated in international conferences and seminars; staff are being introduced to the new Consumer Price Index Manual (CPI Manual) and Producer Price Index Manual (PPI Manual). - Computer resources: - Each expert in the National Accounts Department has a personal computer. - Computers are connected by a network. - Hardware and software facilities are adequately up-to-date. - Backup procedures are adequate for the national accounts and prices programs with multiple backups in hard copy as well as electronic. - Proposed reorganization: - Relocation to Astana of agency and departmental management, as well as senior professionals, comprising about 30 percent of the current Almaty staff. - Remaining staff of the new Astana headquarters will be recruited in part from existing ASRK staff and in part from new hires. - ASRK has received funds for the logistics of the move to Astana; management sees training of new and existing staff as a priority. - Continuity of national accounts and price statistics programs will require close attention during the transition period to filling vacancies with qualified applicants and providing training for new staff. - Staffing constraints and vacancies: - Number of staff in national accounts program is inadequate to maintain current volume and timeliness. - Both Departments have experienced staff declines in recent months because of staff attrition on the eve of the ASRK headquarters reorganization. - Vacancies: five in the National Accounts Department and four in the Price and Labor Statistics Department. - A further reduction of eight staff is expected in the National Accounts Department in the context of upcoming administrative reforms. - Training and workload issues: - Only three members of the present staff have received training in the IMF’s national accounts courses. - Staff workload is very heavy. - Pressure exists to increase scope and improve timeliness of national accounts statistics. - Challenge: hire and retain qualified young staff to ensure succession and continuity, and make greater use of available discrete data to compile quarterly national accounts. - Urgent actions recommended: - Fill current vacancies. - Provide adequate training to new staff. - Ensure sufficient skilled staff are available to successfully implement the national accounts and price statistics programs, most acutely for the national accounts program. ### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources are implemented - Resources allocated through the Plan of Statistical Activities, which: - avoids duplication in the collection of primary data through unification of the surveys; - ensures concepts and classifications are consistent across datasets. - Efficiencies achieved through greater use of sample surveys and administrative data. - The Plan of Statistical Activities defines expected outputs of the National Accounts Department and the Price and Labor Statistics Department including completion dates. - Progress monitored at meetings of ASRK senior staff. - ASRK seeks outside evaluations/advice and assistance from international agencies (e.g., European Union, IMF) and bilaterally with Norway, Sweden, and Turkey to enhance resource efficiency. ### 0.3 Relevance - Legal and advisory framework: - Maintaining relevance and practical utility of statistics required by Article 3 of the Law on Official Statistics. - Public Council to Improve State Statistics (established April 18, 2005 by Order No. 63 of the Chairman of the ASRK) ensures legal requirement is reflected in the Plan of Statistical Activities. - Public Council’s primary function: implement the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics adopted by the United Nations (UN); determine whether ASRK statistics meet users’ needs; safeguard interests of reporters and ensure no unnecessary reporting burden; review the Plan of Statistical Activities; provide overall guidelines for statistical development and their implementation. - Users’ engagement: - A statistics Users’ Group on national accounts statistics established within the Public Council framework to institutionalize interaction between ASRK and users, regularly and systematically monitor user needs, and inform users on specific aspects of current data. - State policy aims: - Fully adopt international standards that meet users’ needs; ensure official data are comparable and adhere to international statistical standards, methodologies, and classifications. - Potential improvement: - Users’ Group could advocate reducing respondent burden by collecting information by discrete time period, rather than both by discrete period and cumulatively from the beginning of the year. ### 0.4 Other quality management - Legal basis and governance: - Article 4 of the Law on Official Statistics requires statistics to have “integrity,” be “reliable,” “comprehensive,” and comparable with “statistical standards used in international practice.” - Public Council (established 2005) focuses on achieving compliance with international standards and best international statistical practices. - Coordination Department is responsible for implementing Public Council recommendations and overall improvement of quality. - Staff responsibility: - National accounts staff aware of responsibilities as civil servants to produce high quality national accounts statistics. - Quality monitoring processes: - Public Council monitors quality routinely while reviewing annual program of statistical activities. - Quality issues addressed at ASRK senior staff meetings. - Three processes to monitor national accounts program quality: - Interaction between headquarters and regional staff to review problems in collecting and processing primary and intermediate data. - Users’ feedback via questionnaires available in publications; users given publication catalogs to provide feedback. - Dialogue with users during annual “Open Day” organized by ASRK. - Participation of national accounts staff in international statistical forums encourages better quality. - Quality in planning: - Public Council ensures quality considerations are reflected in the Plan of Statistical Activities. - Plan addresses trade-offs between timeliness and accuracy of national accounts statistics given need for additional primary data sources and limited budgetary resources. - Medium-term program of improving statistical activities (2006−2008), developed in consultation with users, business, and researchers and approved by the government in 2005, aims to bring statistics fully in line with international standards and best international statistical practices. ### 1. Assurances of integrity #### 1.1 Professionalism - Independence and legal framework: - Article 8 of the Law on Official Statistics guarantees full professional independence to the ASRK in its statistical work. - ASRK chairman and deputy chairpersons appointed by the Prime Minister. - ASRK financed through the government budget. - ASRK prepares an annual Plan of Statistical Activities, without binding instructions, in coordination with other data-producing agencies and implements it after government approval. - Law on Official Statistics (Article 4) obliges ASRK to adhere to principles of integrity, neutrality and objectivity. - Public service and conduct: - Professionalism promoted by the Public Service Law, Administrative Code and Code of Honor of Public Servants which include penalties for misuse of public property and confidential information and set qualifications for statistical job series. - Professional skills in statistics and economics considered in compensation and promotion. - ASRK national accounts staff have been invited to conduct training in national accounts concepts and definitions for staff of other government institutions. - Source and method choices: - Independence in selection of sources, statistical techniques, and dissemination guaranteed by Article 8 of the Law on Official Statistics. - Compilers determine data sources based solely on statistical considerations with regard to measurement objectives, data requirements, quality, timeliness, costs, respondent burden, and compliance with international standards and good practices. - Dissemination complies with the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). - Commenting on misuse: - ASRK responds publicly when it disagrees significantly with technical merits of public statements about disseminated statistics. - ASRK successfully defended accuracy of GDP statistics at the highest level against allegations by another government agency. - Releases of quarterly and annual data usually supplemented by explanatory material and press briefings to avoid misunderstanding or misuse. #### 1.2 Transparency - Public availability: - ASRK website disseminates the Law on Official Statistics and documentation on the legal and institutional environment for producing and disseminating statistics; provides information about how ASRK products may be found on the website. - ASRK provides information on all statistical products and identifies a contact person (postal address, telephone number, and e-mail) in hard copy publications and on the website. - Survey forms reference the Law on Official Statistics and data confidentiality. - Pre-release access: - Data are released simultaneously to all users. - No officials outside the ASRK have access prior to release. - Some ministerial commentary is attached to releases, confined mainly to describing movement of variables. - Identification of products: - ASRK products clearly identified by its name and logo. - Official publication of ASRK data by other agencies are attributed to ASRK. - Advance notice of changes: - Advance notice of methodological changes provided in the medium-term program for developing statistics. - Changes to be implemented in the current year identified in the annual statistical plan. #### 1.3 Ethical standards - Staff conduct guidance: - Law on Official Statistics prohibits disclosure of confidential information. - Staff conduct guided by the Code of Honor for public servants. - Law on Public Service and departmental statutes prohibit public servants holding paid positions in business (excluding research and development) that might create conflicts of interest. - Staff provided with relevant job descriptions specifying major tasks, functions, duties, and norms of conduct. ### 2. Methodological soundness #### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - Overall structure follows internationally accepted standards: - ASRK compiles annual and quarterly national accounts statistics following the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA). #### 2.2 Scope - Scope consistency: - Meets minimum requirements of tables and accounts established by the Inter-secretariat Working Group on National Accounts (ISWGNA). - Includes several accounts recommended by ISWGNA. - Transactions coverage, production and asset boundaries in line with the 1993 SNA. - Disseminated national accounts and aggregates: - Annual value added and GDP by activity at current and constant prices (prices of previous year); - Annual expenditure components of GDP at current and constant prices (prices of the previous year); - Annual accounts of the institutional sectors and the total economy (including financial accounts on experimental basis); - Annual rest of the world accounts (until net lending). - Additional disseminated accounts recommended by ISWGNA: - Quarterly GDP by economic activity at current and constant prices (prices of the previous year); - Quarterly expenditures of GDP at current and constant prices (prices of the previous year); - Annual supply-use tables since 2000. - Residence concept: - Broadly follows the 1993 SNA; territorial enclaves in the rest of the world and free zones are included as part of the economy. - Production boundary includes: - own-account production of goods for own-final consumption; - output of goods for own-account fixed capital formation; - research and development on own account; - mineral exploration; - production of computer software; - production of entertainment, literary and artistic originals. - Illegal activities are not included in output measurement. - Assets boundary: - Accords with the 1993 SNA; includes defense-related assets usable for civilian purposes, agricultural work-in-progress, and intangible assets. - Oil and gas: - Production of petroleum, natural gas, and related products is included in the production boundary for GDP. - Expenditures on oil and gas activities and products are reflected in intermediate consumption, personal consumption, exports and fixed capital formation. - Oil and gas sector includes a list of enterprises from the State Statistics Register (SSR), including construction enterprises engaged in oil and gas extraction and related activities that contribute significantly to total output of the sector. #### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - Classification systems: - Classification of institutional units, transactions and other flows follow the 1993 SNA. - Activities classified according to the National Classification of Economic Activities (NCEA), equivalent to NACE Rev. 2, extended by additional digits for national purposes. - Products classified using the Combined Nomenclature, equivalent to the Classification of Products by Activities (CPA) extended to nine digits for national purposes. - Household consumption classified by COICOP. - Government functions classified by COFOG. - International merchandise trade transactions classified using the Harmonized System (HS) at the nine-digit level. *Source: _cr0856 - 0.2 Resources (extracted from provided PDF content).* ### 2.4 Basis for recording ### _cr0856 - 2.4 Basis for recording ### Valuation rules (2.4.1) - The valuation rules follow the 1993 SNA. - Market output is valued at basic prices. - Output for own-use is valued at equivalent market prices. - Sales and excise taxes are included in the valuation of intermediate consumption. - Value added taxes (VATs) are included in the valuation of intermediate consumption, excluding the deductible part of the VATs. - Imports and exports are valued on an f.o.b. basis. - Transactions in foreign currency are converted using the mid-point exchange rate prevailing in the market at the moment they take place. ### Recording basis (2.4.2) - Transactions are recorded, in general, on an accrual basis. - Exception: general government sector data are recorded on a cash basis. - Government-related transactions that need accrual recording include taxes and subsidies on products; expenditures; and revenues. ### Grossing/netting procedures (2.4.3) - Transactions between establishments within the same enterprise are recorded on a gross basis. - Grossing/netting procedures are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. ### Source data collection and coverage (3.1) - The data collection program includes: - an up-to-date register and subregisters; - annual and quarterly surveys of enterprises/establishments and households based on these registers; - adequate sample designs that allow disaggregated estimates by area and industry; - detailed survey questionnaires reviewed periodically; - administrative data; and - supplementary collections when needed. - The ASRK uses the State Statistics Register (SSR), four agricultural subregisters, and a housing register for economic surveys. - Legal and register coverage: - SSR established in 1994; legal support in Article 9 of the Law on Official Statistics. - SSR covers 244,855 registered legal entities (as of October 2006). - 230,638 are small enterprises, including 11,725 foreign enterprises. - 12,071 are medium enterprises, of which 236 are foreign enterprises. - 2,146 are large enterprises, of which 78 are foreign enterprises. - SSR includes over 400,000 individuals (maintained by the Tax Committee). - Agricultural data collection: - Collected from all 1,100 large and medium-sized agricultural enterprises. - Sample of 11,173 small farms. - Registers: PCX-1 (Register of Agricultural Enterprises); PCX-2 (Register of Peasant Farms) with 190,599 peasant farms; PCX-3 (Register of Agricultural Households) with over 2.17 million households; PCX-4 (Register of Fruit Farming and Cooperatives) with 569,374 units. - Nonfinancial (nonagricultural) enterprises: - Large and medium enterprises surveyed by complete enumeration. - Small enterprises surveyed by sampling; sample is about 25 percent of the registered enterprises and drawn from the SSR using simple random sampling. - Reporting by small businesses is noted as not always accurate (for example, wage data may exceed gross value added). - Financial sector and other sources: - Aggregated data for central bank and commercial banks obtained from the NBRK on special report forms. - Insurance companies and pension funds data from the Agency for Supervising Financial Institutions. - Microcredit institutions (over 1,500 units) data collected directly by the ASRK. - Household budget survey: - Continuous survey with rotation covering 3,000 households in each rotation. - Sample drawn from the household register (based on the 1999 population census) using stratified random sampling across six strata: (i) urban areas with more than 30,000 households, (ii) urban areas with 10,000–30,000 households, (iii) urban areas with less than 10,000 households, (iv) Almaty, (v) Astana, and (vi) rural areas. - Expenditure items based on COICOP (over 500 items). - Government finance statistics (GFS) are available on a monthly and annual basis for: - central government, regional governments, local governments, and non-profit institutions financed by the government. - MOF provides data on all defense-related expenditures. - External trade: - ASRK foreign trade division compiles data on imports and exports using aggregated data from the Customs’ Control Committee. ### Timeliness and frequency (3.1.3) - Source data for production, intermediate consumption, GDP expenditure components, foreign trade, balance of payments, monetary and financial, and GFS are obtained on a timely basis. - Price statistics used for GDP at constant prices (PPI, CPI, import and export price indexes, price indexes of agricultural products and inputs, and price indexes of intermediate inputs) are available on a timely basis. - Enterprises engaged in oil and gas activities provide source data monthly, quarterly and annually on a timely basis. ### Assessment of source data and quality control (3.2) - Source data are routinely assessed for coverage, sample error, response error, and nonsampling error; however, sampling error information is not published. - National Accounts Department staff analyze source data to identify problem areas, review extreme values with respondents, adjust for under-reporting and nonresponse, and check temporal consistency. - The two main survey sources (surveys of output and surveys of intermediate consumption) are continuously checked for consistency at the enterprise level. - Administrative data (GFS, balance of payments, monetary statistics) are assessed; when discrepancies exist between ASRK source data and administrative data, national accounts staff use the unadjusted administrative data. ### Noted deficiencies and recommendations (summary) - Exceptions and potential problems: - Changes in inventories are directly reported by enterprises; ASRK may lack insight into enterprise valuation systems. - General government transactions are recorded on a cash basis (exception to accrual recording). - Outstanding quality issues and recommended actions: - Strengthen orientation of the statistical program toward collecting and disseminating data by discrete time periods—most data are currently collected cumulatively as well as by discrete time periods. - Allocate more resources for the quarterly national accounts program to fully use discrete-period data; cumulative quarterly GDP data and rates of change between cumulative periods are not suitable for business cycle analysis. - Exploit administrative data and, as needed, conduct small-scale supplementary surveys to improve coverage of small businesses, particularly in retail trade and construction. - Investigate streamlining the statistical program to focus on compiling and disseminating data by discrete time periods and provide more resources to quarterly national accounts. - Sector-specific counts: - There are 1,428 enterprises engaged in oil and gas related activities: - 68 enterprises involved in extraction of oil and gas. - 16 enterprises producing oil products. - 99 enterprises providing support services for oil and gas extraction. *Source: _cr0856 - 2.4 Basis for recording* ### 3.3 Statistical techniques ### 3.3 Statistical techniques ### Data compilation procedures - Regional statistical offices collect and forward source data to the ASRK headquarters. - Automated procedures in the ASRK identify outliers; regional offices follow up. - Data validation software (for checking, coding, editing, and tabulation errors) is used for each survey questionnaire to identify outliers. - For sample surveys the grossing-up factors are derived scientifically. - Data are further validated for processing errors in the information technology center at headquarters. - Individual data are stored in a database. ### Unrecorded activities and other adjustments - Unrecorded activities are estimated and included in GDP; presently about 21 percent of GDP. - Unrecorded activities are mainly in the small business sector and include underreporting in source data collection. - Retail trade unrecorded activities: about 3.12 percent of GDP; derived by comparing total wages from the enterprise survey with wages obtained by multiplying number of employees in trade (from the Labor Force Survey) with average wages of small enterprises. - Construction unrecorded activities: about 3.38 percent of GDP; enterprise survey estimates are compared with commodity flow technique estimates using imports and domestic production of construction goods, and survey data are adjusted accordingly. - Appropriate adjustments are made to observed value added and output to reflect these estimates. - Output of owner-occupied dwellings is valued as estimated rentals tenants pay for similar accommodation; rents applied to dwelling stock data expressed as areas in square meters by urban and rural areas (dwelling stock from ASRK register). - National Accounts Department records work-in-progress in agriculture and construction in the quarter produced; included items: growing crops, standing timber, stocks of fish, livestock reared for purposes of food, and large construction projects. - Output estimates are adjusted for holding gains/losses accruing on inventories; inventory estimates are being compiled by type of inventories. - Intermediate consumption is adjusted for holding gains/losses of raw materials. - Perpetual inventory method used as conceptual basis for estimating consumption of fixed capital. - Constant price estimates of changes in inventories compiled from opening and closing balances. ### Production approach — constant price compilation - Estimates of output and intermediate consumption compiled by economic activities at the five/six-digit level of the NCEA. - Constant price estimates by industry compiled using the single indicator method; double-deflation method could be adopted if resources permit using detailed ASRK data (output, inputs, price indices, input/output tables). - With exception of construction and trade, production indexes are used to extrapolate value added. - Indexes are considered representative. - Volume measures for taxes less subsidies on products compiled by extrapolating base-year tax/subsidy shares by sector using a volume extrapolator of transactions subject to a specific tax/subsidy. - Output volume of trade margins estimated by deflating current values using detailed CPI subcomponents. - Main techniques by NACE Rev. 1 Section: - Agriculture, hunting and forestry, fishing: Extrapolation using Industrial Production Index (IPI) - Mining and quarrying: Extrapolation using IPI - Manufacturing: Extrapolation using the IPI - Electricity, gas, and water supply: Extrapolation using the IPI - Construction: Deflation using the construction volume index - Wholesale and retail trade: Deflation using the wholesale and retail price index - Hotels and restaurants: Extrapolation using sectoral employment index - Transport, storage: Extrapolation using the volume index - Communications: Extrapolation sectoral employment index - Financial intermediation: Extrapolation using the sectoral employment index - Real estate, renting and business, other services: Extrapolation using employment index - Public administration and defense; Education/health and social work: Extrapolation using employment index - FISIM: Extrapolation of the base-year value with the volume index of the interest rates - Taxes and subsidies on products: Extrapolation ### Expenditure approach — compilation and deflation - Independent estimates compiled for: - Household final consumption expenditure (based on household budget survey and other sources such as imports statistics, turnover of retail trade, government final consumption expenditure at one-digit COFOG, and agricultural balances). - Gross fixed capital formation (by activities and types of assets). - Changes in inventories (by activities and type of inventories). - Treatment of resident and nonresident consumption: - Expenses of residents abroad included in household final consumption expenditure and in imports. - Expenses of nonresidents excluded from household final consumption expenditure and included in exports. - Constant price estimates compiled by deflating expenditure components at disaggregated level: - Household final consumption expenditure: Deflation using CPI (at detailed levels). - Government final consumption expenditure: Goods deflated using CPI; Services extrapolated using volume index of government employment and index of average wages of government employees. - Gross fixed capital formation: Deflation using capital goods price indices and PPIs. - Change in inventories: Deflation using PPIs for industry and agriculture. - Exports and imports of goods and services: Deflation using price indices of exports and imports. - National Accounts Department has begun deflating household final consumption expenditure using CPI subindexes at a detailed product level. - Inventories deflated by detailed PPI subindexes. - Volume measures of components of imports and exports compiled separately. - Recommendation noted: adopt double-deflation method using detailed ASRK data (output, inputs, price indices, input/output tables) to improve estimates. ### Quarterly estimates and timing methods - Denton benchmarking technique used to combine annual estimates with quarterly indicators. - Quarterly compilation system derives quarterly series from seasonally unadjusted source data. - Seasonal adjustment of quarterly national accounts estimates done using the X-12 software. ### Validation, discrepancies, and investigations - Intermediate results validated against related indicators (volume and price trends) for major activities. - Assessments of potential discrepancies of major intermediate data undertaken; adjustments made to remove discrepancies. - Ratios checked carefully: intermediate consumption/gross output; gross value added/gross output; consumption of fixed capital/gross output. - Value-added structure by industry checked for temporal consistency and adjusted as needed. - Statistical discrepancy between GDP by production and GDP by expenditure is shown explicitly and investigated. - Identified source of bias: incorrect treatment in balance of payments of subunits/representation offices of foreign construction companies as nonresidents, resulting in incorrect treatment of their output as imports; these subunits often have few employees but handle significant construction activity using foreign labor and inputs. - Internal consistency issue: GDP from the expenditure side needs adjustment for over valuation of imports due to incorrect treatment of output of certain foreign companies in balance of payments. ### Revisions, periodicity, and timeliness - Magnitude of revisions is always investigated; significant revisions are commented and explained when published. - Revision policy for annual and quarterly GDP accounts is clearly established, published in the annual statistical plan, and punctually followed. - Annual estimates schedule: - Flash estimate — not later than two months after the reference period for the production approach estimate, and four months for the expenditure approach estimate; - First revised estimate — not later than four months after the reference period; - Second revised estimate — not later than nine months after the reference period; - Third revised estimate — not later than one year after the reference period; and - Fourth revised estimate — not later than two years after the reference period. - Quarterly estimates schedule: - Flash estimate — not later than two months after the reference period (only the production approach estimate); - First revised estimate — not later than three months after the reference period; and - Second revised estimate — not later than nine months after the reference period. - Preliminary and revised data are clearly identified; users are made aware data are preliminary and subject to revision. - Revised data are disseminated with the same level of detail as previously published. - Revisions are measured and explained in press releases when revised data are disseminated, including analysis of preliminary versus revised data for major aggregates. ### Availability, metadata, and user guidance - GDP estimates compiled with annual and quarterly periodicity following SDDS requirements. - Timeliness of annual and quarterly estimates meets SDDS requirements. - Discrepancy between GDP by activity and by expenditure for 2005: less than one percent in annual data. - Annual national accounts estimates available since 1990; quarterly since 1994. - Breaks in annual accounts: - (i) expressed in rubles from 1990 to 1992, and in tenge thereafter; - (ii) compiled according to old classification until 1997 and according to NCEA since 1998. - Consistent annual time series available since 1998; consistent quarterly time series available since 1994 after reconstruction for classification changes. - Methodology described in Methodological Guidelines on the System of National Accounts (in Russian) prepared in 2006 by ASRK; summary metadata provided in national accounts publications. - SDDS metadata page on national accounts posted on the IMF’s DSBB and on the ASRK’s website (in English and Russian). - National accounts published with charts and tables and commentary; both GDP by production and expenditure approaches published at disaggregated level. - Quarterlies published as seasonally adjusted time series using X-12. - Dissemination media: dedicated national accounts publications, statistics yearbook, news releases, electronic posting on ASRK website. - Data related to oil and gas activities published in press releases and supply-use tables and disseminated on ASRK website. - Annual and quarterly estimates released according to an advance release calendar on ASRK’s website and simultaneously to all users. - Unpublished but nonconfidential detailed data are made available upon request. - Documentation and methodological articles disseminated (ASRK’s journal Economics and Statistics). - Contact person for national accounts data publicized in publications and on ASRK website; ASRK catalog of publications contains availability information and costs. _3.3 Statistical techniques — _cr0856 - 3.3 Statistical techniques_ ### 1.2 Transparency ### 1.2 Transparency ### Key findings on transparency and data compilation - Government-related transactions are recorded on a cash basis and not adjusted. - Several data are still collected on a cumulative basis. - The estimates of the contribution to GDP of small businesses, in particular in retail trade and construction, need to be improved through supplemental surveys. - Volume estimates are compiled via single deflation. - A statistical discrepancy arises because of incorrectly including in imports the output of certain foreign construction companies that are treated incorrectly in the balance of payments as nonresidents. ### Metadata, accessibility, and user assistance - Data accessibility: X - Metadata accessibility: X - Assistance to users: X --- ### Consumer Price Index — II. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ### 0.1 Prerequisites of quality — Legal and institutional environment - The Agency on Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan (ASRK) is identified by Government Resolution No. 1460 of December 31, 2004, as the central executive agency on statistics. - The Law on Official Statistics (No. 98-1 dated May 7, 1997; amendments No. 280-II in January 2002, and No. 14-III in 2004) governs collection and dissemination of official statistics and reinforces ASRK’s mandate. - The ASRK: (i) ensures the functioning and improvement of a unified statistical information system; and (ii) prepares and implements a program of official statistics, including a three-year program for developing statistics (2006−2008) and an annual operational Plan of Statistical Activities embedded in the budgetary process. - The Plan of Statistical Activities includes compilation and improvement of national accounts and price statistics. ### 0.1.2 Data sharing and coordination - Legal support for data sharing: Article 10 of the Law on Official Statistics and Government Resolution No. 1460 (December 2004). - Article 10 empowers ASRK to request data from government agencies; Articles 3 and 8 obligate ASRK to coordinate statistical activities. - Major coordination occurs via the Council on Economic Policy (chaired by the Prime Minister) and through agreements between ASRK, Ministry of Finance (MOF), and National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NBRK). - The Inter-Agency Council for Improving Government Statistics (established July 29, 1997 by Government Order 1184) was abolished March 4, 2005 (Government Resolution No. 206); its functions have been appropriated by the Council on Economic Policy and the ASRK. - ASRK may access aggregated registers and administrative data; under an Interagency Task Force terms of reference, ASRK receives sales/expense/balance-sheet data on small and medium businesses from the Tax Committee of MOF. ### 0.1.3 Confidentiality of reporters’ data - Confidentiality safeguarded by Articles 11−13 of the Law on Official Statistics and ASRK rules. - Order of the Chairman of ASRK (No. 72 dated July 10, 2002) states disclosure of reporters’ data is punishable under the Administrative Code. - Violations may incur punitive actions under Article 383 of the Code of Administrative Violations (effective January 30, 2001): “sale, transfer to anyone, or other disclosure of statistics that are commercial secrets by an official without the consent of their lawful possessor shall incur a fine.” - ASRK measures to protect data include: (i) staff instructions on legal obligations; (ii) restricted access to staff who require information; (iii) aggregation rules to prevent disclosure through dissemination (note: confidentiality provisions do not apply to state-owned enterprises); and (iv) punitive measures against staff who disclose confidential data. ### 0.1.4 Legal mandate for reporting and response encouragement - Articles 3 and 10 of the Law on Official Statistics provide legal basis to obtain information “on compulsory basis” and “free of charge.” - Government Resolution No. 1460 requires requested information to be accurate and comply with Plan of Statistical Activities formats and deadlines; ASRK normative acts are obligatory for reporting units. - Noncompliance, including misreporting, is punishable under the Administrative Code. - National accounts and price statistics central office staff may contact and visit business units for accuracy checks; inspections are selective and sector-specialist–led. - Reporting performance: - Large- and medium-size reporters: response is adequate; national accounts staff meet regularly to encourage response and reduce reporting burden. - Small businesses: information often inaccurate; ASRK now collects information from small businesses using random sampling techniques to focus on quality while reducing respondent burden. - Foreign oil and gas companies: national accounts staff has regular contact; response has improved, but some firms do not fully comply with legal reporting requirements and are being engaged to improve reporting. ### 0.2 Resources — Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing - ASRK central office total staff: 186. - National Accounts Department staff: 19. - Price and Labor Statistics Department staff: 23. - Full-time staff working on CPI and PPI: 15 (including IT staff assigned to price programs); excludes regional price collection and validation staff. - National accounts staff organized in four divisions covering: - GDP by Production and Expenditure Approach; - integrated Economic Accounts; - supply-use tables; - financial Statistics Data (annual report of enterprises). - Satellite accounts (tourism and accumulation accounts) compiled but presently not disseminated; accounts for 2005 being finalized for publication in early 2007. - Staff qualifications: - All staff have a university degree. - National accounts staff received training in national accounts in the early 1990s from OECD; key price statistics staff received training in the early 1990s from various international agencies. - Only three members of present national accounts staff have received training in the IMF’s national accounts courses. - Computing resources: adequate; each National Accounts Department expert has a personal computer; networked; hardware and software up-to-date; multiple hard copy and electronic backups. ### 0.2 Resources — Reorganization, vacancies, and staffing risks - Proposed ASRK reorganization includes relocation to Astana; relocation and recruitment will involve about 30 percent of current Almaty staff moving. - ASRK has funds for logistics of the move; management prioritizes training of new and existing staff. - Staffing shortfalls and attrition: - Number of staff in national accounts program is inadequate to maintain current volume and timeliness. - Recent declines in Department staff due to attrition on the eve of reorganization. - Vacancies: five in the National Accounts Department and four in the Price and Labor Statistics Department. - A further reduction of eight staff is expected in the National Accounts Department in the context of upcoming administrative reforms. - Consequences: further reductions, especially of experienced staff providing continuity and institutional memory, will affect volume and timeliness of statistics. - Urgent actions needed: fill current vacancies, provide adequate training to new staff, ensure sufficient skilled staff to implement national accounts and price statistics programs—most acutely for national accounts. ### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources - Resources allocated via the Plan of Statistical Activities to avoid duplication and ensure consistency. - Efficiencies achieved through increased use of sample surveys and administrative data. - Progress monitored at ASRK senior staff meetings. - ASRK seeks external evaluations and assistance from international agencies (e.g., European Union, IMF) and bilateral partners (Norway, Sweden, Turkey). ### 0.3 Relevance - Article 3 of the Law on Official Statistics requires maintaining relevance and practical utility of statistics. - The Public Council to Improve State Statistics (established April 18, 2005 by Order No. 63) ensures legal requirements are reflected in the Plan of Statistical Activities. - Functions of the Public Council: - Implement the UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics. - Determine whether ASRK statistics meet users’ needs. - Safeguard reporters’ interests (reduce unnecessary reporting burden). - Review the Plan of Statistical Activities. - Provide guidelines for statistical development and implementation. - A Users’ Group on national accounts statistics has been established within the Public Council to institutionalize ASRK-user interaction and monitor user needs; it also informs users on specific aspects of current data. - State policy aims to fully adopt international standards to ensure comparability and adherence to international methodologies and classifications. - The Users’ Group could advocate reducing respondent burden by collecting information by discrete time period rather than both discrete period and cumulative year-to-date reporting. ### 0.4 Other quality management — Processes for quality - Article 4 of the Statistics Law requires statistics to have “integrity,” be “reliable,” “comprehensive,” and comparable with “statistical standards used in international practice.” - The Public Council focuses on compliance with international standards and best practices; its recommendations are implemented by ASRK’s Coordination Department. - National accounts staff acknowledge responsibility to produce high-quality national accounts statistics. ### 0.4.2 Processes to monitor quality - The Public Council routinely monitors quality while reviewing the annual program. - Quality issues addressed at ASRK senior staff meetings. - Additional quality monitoring processes: - Interaction between headquarters and regional staff to review primary and intermediate data collection/processing problems. - Users’ feedback via questionnaires available in publications and publication catalogs. - Annual “Open Day” dialogue with users. - Participation of national accounts staff in international statistical forums. ### 0.4.3 Quality considerations in planning - The Public Council ensures quality considerations are reflected in the Plan of Statistical Activities, addressing trade-offs between timeliness and accuracy and setting priorities within limited budgets. - Quality improvement is also addressed in the medium-term program of improving statistical activities (2006−2008), developed in consultation with users, business, and researchers and approved by the government, with the aim of aligning statistics with international standards and best practices. *Source: _cr0856 - 1.2 Transparency* ### 1. Assurances of integrity ### 1. Assurances of integrity ### Professionalism - Article 8 of the Law on Official Statistics guarantees full professional independence to the ASRK in its statistical work. - The ASRK chairman and deputy chairpersons are appointed by the Prime Minister. - The ASRK is financed through the government budget. - The ASRK prepares an annual Plan of Statistical Activities, without binding instructions, in coordination with other data-producing agencies and implements it after government approval. - The Law on Official Statistics (Article 4) obliges the ASRK to adhere to the principles of integrity, neutrality and objectivity. - Professionalism is promoted by the Public Service Law, Administrative Code and Code of Honor of Public Servants; these include penalties for misuse of public property and confidential information and set qualifications for the statistical job series. - Professional skills in statistics and economics are considered in determining compensation level and eligibility for promotion. - The ASRK national accounts staff have been invited to conduct training in national accounts concepts and definitions for the staff of other government institutions. - Independence in selection of sources, statistical techniques, and dissemination is guaranteed by Article 8 of the Law on Official Statistics. - National accounts compilers determine data sources based solely on statistical considerations: measurement objectives, data requirements, quality, timeliness, costs, burden on respondents, and compliance with international standards and good practices. - The dissemination of the national accounts statistics complies with the requirements of the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). - The ASRK responds publicly when it disagrees significantly with the technical merits of public statements about disseminated statistics and has successfully defended the accuracy of GDP statistics against allegations by another government agency. - Quarterly and annual releases are usually supplemented by explanatory material and press briefings to avoid misunderstanding or erroneous interpretation and misuse. ### Transparency - The ASRK website disseminates the Law on Official Statistics and documentation on the legal and institutional environment for producing and disseminating statistics. - The ASRK provides information on all statistical products and identifies a contact person (with postal address, telephone number, and e-mail) in hard copy publications and on the website. - Survey forms reference the Law on Official Statistics and data confidentiality. - Data are released simultaneously to all users; no officials outside the ASRK have access prior to release. - Some ministerial commentary attached to releases is confined mainly to describing movement of variables. - ASRK products are clearly identified by its name and logo; official publication of ASRK data by other agencies are attributed to the ASRK. - Advance notice of methodological changes is provided in the medium-term program for developing statistics; changes to be implemented in the current year are identified in the annual statistical plan. ### Ethical standards - The Law on Official Statistics prohibits disclosure of confidential information. - Staff conduct is guided by the Code of Honor for public servants. - The Law on Public Service and departmental statutes prohibit public servants from holding any paid position in business (excluding for research and development) that might create conflicts of interest. - Staff are provided with a relevant job description specifying major tasks, functions, duties, and norms of conduct. ### Methodological soundness - Concepts and definitions for household consumption expenditures are consistent with the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA) and determine the weights for the CPI. - Goods and services with regular price quotations are based on specifications in the CPI Manual. - Weights are determined independently for the regions and aggregation is done over the regions. - The ASRK reviews deviations from these concepts and definitions regularly. - Weights are determined at the most detailed level of the Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) and include service expenditure of owner occupied housing using imputed rent to measure price changes. - Scope of CPI: - All resident households, urban and rural, are included. - Geographic coverage: 14 oblasts, 27 districts, Almaty, Astana, and three other large cities. - Sampling techniques include families of all sizes and income levels; households that operate businesses are included with business activity separated from own consumption. - Rural households include those mainly engaged in farming. - CPI includes housing costs such as rents and since 2004 includes owner occupied housing. - Illegal market transactions are not included. - Estimates account for own-account production and consumption of market goods. - Oil and gas related consumer expenditures: - Gasoline, diesel and other fuels and lubricants, gas as well as other refined oil and gas products cover some 4.6 percent of consumer expenditure weights in the CPI. - CPI excluding energy is compiled and disseminated separately. - Classification and sectorization conform to 1993 SNA and COICOP. - Basis for recording: - CPI weights derived from consumption expenditures valued at market prices in accord with 1993 SNA; include trade and transport margins and all applicable taxes but not subsidies. - CPI does not include housing purchase expenditures; uses imputed rent for owner-occupied housing. - Recorded prices are based on arms-length and free market transactions. - Price guidelines by state anti-monopoly agencies apply only to a limited number of services (e.g., electricity, water); recorded prices for these services are prices actually paid by households. - Prices are recorded in the period they are purchased (accrual basis). - CPI includes purchases in secondary markets with weights based on “acquisitions less disposal” consistent with 1993 SNA grossing/netting procedures. ### Accuracy and reliability - Source data: - Main sources: household income and expenditure survey (HIES) for weights and a monthly price survey. - Sampling frame for HIES is based on the 1999 census and updated regularly. - HIES sample size has been steadily increasing and now includes some 12,000 households, representing 0.3 percent of the total number of households in the country. - Scientific sampling techniques select families representing each income level from each region; geographic coverage includes representative urban and rural samples. - Weights are revised every year based on a new HIES. - Oblasts report prices for selected items using modems to assure timely processing. - The monthly price collection includes 508 types of headings in 12 sections, 40 groups and 86 classes. - Other data sources for assessment are actively sought; press and research papers are monitored for price information. - Weights for oil and gas related goods and services are derived from HIES and adjusted with additional retail market sales data; monthly price collection includes filling stations, service and delivery providers, refineries and other relevant outlets. - For a separate monthly publication, additional end-of-month average prices by product type are gathered. - Assessment of source data: - The ASRK collects regularly reviewed information on sampling and nonsampling errors for all surveys. - Sample selection is adjusted when sampling errors become large. - Source data are routinely analyzed to correct for underreporting/misreporting, inter-temporal consistency, and consistency with related data sources (such as the PPI and agricultural prices). - High-value transactions are double checked with respondents; surveys/censuses are audited. - Regional staff analyze price movements by outlet; central office and country-level logical controls identify suspect price quotes and clarify individual quotes; adjustments are made when needed. - Statistical techniques and compilation: - CPI includes 508 types of headings—167 food products, 256 nonfood items, and 85 paid services. - Each representative commodity or service includes item varieties in each region from at least 8−10 commercial outlets. - Number of price quotes is over 120,000 (90,000 at regional and 30,000 at district level). - Weights are calculated on basis of the previous year’s HIES; prices prevailing in December of the previous year are taken as base prices and mean annual weights are adjusted in line with base prices. - Calculation is based on a chain-linked Laspeyres index whereby a relative index of price change is based on weights of December of the previous year. - Goods and services produced for own final consumption, when included, are valued at market prices at time produced. - Prices for temporarily unavailable items are imputed with reference to index movements for the commodity group that includes the missing item; permanently unavailable products are replaced with similar products. - Price data are adjusted for quality changes using explicit and implicit adjustment methods; quality change sources include consumer magazines and discussions with wholesalers. - Seasonal food item treatment (e.g., watermelon, apricots, cherries) may potentially cause a downward bias in long-term series due to high introductory prices at beginning of new season being under-captured; offsetting elements include: end-of-season price increases, very small combined weight of such items, and imputor inclination during off-season. - Recommended change: imputation method should be changed so the index picks up the price change at the beginning of new season; price change should be based on imputed value and the new season price at the time the seasonal item appears in the price collection. - Elementary aggregate indices: - An unbiased formula is used to calculate basic level price indexes; Dutot index (relative of average prices) is used at the elementary aggregate level for items at each region. - These indices are aggregated using the short-term Laspeyres formula and chaining to the previous period’s index. - When new weights are introduced every year, the new index is linked to the old index using a monthly overlap period to calculate linking factors. - Dutot index requires very homogeneous items and is not invariant to changes in unit of measurement (fails commensurability test); geometric mean is preferred. - Consider changing the elementary aggregate formula to a geometric mean, as currently recommended by the new CPI Manual. - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs: - CPI is compared with PPI, export price indexes, import price indexes, and a price index for agricultural products. - Press is monitored for relevant price information in the validation process. - Unusual movements from large sectoral movements or particular reporters are investigated. - Statistical discrepancies between CPI for geographical areas and CPI for products are investigated and measures taken to remove or explain them. - Errors in imputation of missing prices are routinely assessed. *Source: _cr0856 - 1. Assurances of integrity* ### 3.5 Revision studies ### 3.5 Revision studies ### Revision studies and internal use - Studies and analyses of revisions are carried out routinely and used internally to inform statistical processes. - Internal ASRK studies investigate the sources of errors, omissions, and unusual fluctuations in the CPI input data prior to publication. - A revision study is carried out when weights are revised annually. ### Serviceability — Periodicity and timeliness - Periodicity meets the SDDS requirements. - The CPI is compiled monthly. - Timeliness meets the SDDS requirements. - The monthly CPI estimates are disseminated on the first day following the reporting period. ### Consistency - The CPI estimates for the different classifications are internally consistent in that the all-item aggregate is invariant to aggregation. - The republic level headline CPI is aggregated from the regional item indices using regional weights. - The ASRK started compiling the CPI in 1993. - Consistent data for all sections, classes, and groups are available from that time, with disaggregation by oblasts. - The CPI estimates are consistent with the national accounts and with other price statistics systems. - Consistent data for all sections, classes, and groups are available for the past 13 years, with disaggregation by oblasts. ### Revision policy and practice - The annual CPI weight revision cycle is predetermined and stable from year to year, and the users are well aware of this schedule. - Detailed documentation on revisions are included in the ASRK’s publications. - There is a clear policy to include new source data (such as new products, changes in quality, etc.) as early as possible. - The ASRK follows an established and transparent procedure to make such improvements while maintaining the consistency of the CPI series over a reasonable period of time. - The data are final when first released and are not subject to revision. - Revisions are clearly identified and explained in statistical publications. - A number of monthly, quarterly, and annual analytical papers, some of which explain and analyze the weight revisions, are available on the ASRK website. - Revisions are clearly identified and explained in statistical publications. ### Accessibility — Data accessibility - The ASRK produces a wide range of publications where the CPI is included in a clear manner with accompanying charts, tables, and analysis of current-period developments to facilitate analysis by users. - The CPI estimates and accompanying analysis are presented at various levels of aggregation. - The press release gives a quick overview of recent developments. - Other monthly and quarterly publications provide more detailed breakdown and analysis of index components. - The data are presented in short- and long-term change form, as well as in long time-series format using different base periods. - Breakdown for oil and gas related products and services are presented at national and regional level. - The CPI excluding energy is included in the regular CPI publication and a separate monthly publication on prices of oil and refined products is also disseminated. - Publication schedule and media: - The CPI is first published as a press release “On Inflation,” followed by an express information release “On the Level of Inflation in the Republic of Kazakhstan,” both posted on the ASRK website on the same day. - On the fourth day of the month a more detailed publication “Consumer Prices Index in the Republic of Kazakhstan” is published with further analysis and more detailed breakdown. - Quarterly additional analytical materials are disseminated on changes in prices on the markets of critical goods and services in the Republic and the regions. - All publications are available through the ASRK website and also in print form. - Recent data as well as longer time series on the CPI can be accessed through a computer database. - The preannounced schedule for release of the CPI data follows a set and stable pattern. - The ASRK has a clear policy of simultaneous release of statistics to all users. - Nonconfidential, unpublished specialized tabulations are provided for a charge; the availability, and the terms and conditions under which they are made available, are made public. ### Accessibility — Metadata and user assistance - A comprehensive set of methodological publications, all accessible through the ASRK website, provide information on the CPI compilation at various levels of detail. - Short methodological explanations are placed on the first page of every bulletin and other publications, such as the “Statistical Yearbook of Kazakhstan.” - Main publications describing definitions and compilation practices include “Methodological Principles for Price Statistics” and “Methodological Principles for Statistics.” - Quarterly and annual analytical publications are compiled. - The SDDS metadata are kept under review. - The ASRK prepares various brochures, bulletins, and notes to inform general users about different statistical series. - Reference books are prepared annually analyzing price developments over the past five years. - The ASRK’s website provides information on the methodology underlying the compilation of the CPI. - Contact points: - All statistical publications identify individuals who may be contacted by mail, telephone, facsimile, or by e-mail. - The effectiveness and efficiency of user support is monitored periodically by the ASRK. - Catalogs: - The ASRK produces a catalog of publications, documents, and other services that is widely circulated. - The prices charged for its statistical services and products are clearly disclosed and assistance is provided in placing orders. *Source: _cr0856 - 3.5 Revision studies* ### 0.2 Resources ### _cr0856 - 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources — staffing, facilities, computing, financing - ASRK central office total staff: 186. - National Accounts Department staff: 19. - Price and Labor Statistics Department staff: 23. - Full-time staff working on CPI and PPI (including IT staff assigned to price programs): 15 (excludes regional offices' price staff). - National accounts staff organized in four divisions: - GDP by Production and Expenditure Approach—compilation of annual and quarterly GDP estimates, and by income approach on annual basis. - Integrated Economic Accounts—the full sequence of accounts and accounts by institutional sectors. - Supply-use tables. - Financial Statistics Data—design and processing of data from the annual report of enterprises (balance sheet and profit-loss statement). - Satellite accounts of tourism and accumulation accounts are compiled but presently not disseminated. - Accounts for 2005 are being finalized for publication in early 2007. - All staff members have a university degree. - Training history: - National accounts staff received training in national accounts in the early 1990s from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. - Key price statistics staff received training in the early 1990s from various European, American, and international statistical agencies. - Price statistics staff periodically participate in international conferences and seminars. - Staff being introduced to the new Consumer Price Index Manual (CPI Manual) and Producer Price Index Manual (PPI Manual). - Computer resources: - Each National Accounts Department expert has a personal computer. - Computers are connected by a network. - Hardware and software facilities are adequately up-to-date. - Backup procedures: multiple backups in hard copy as well as electronic. - Proposed reorganization and relocation: - Relocation to Astana includes agency and departmental management and senior professionals comprising about 30 percent of the current Almaty staff. - Remaining staff of new Astana headquarters to be recruited partly from existing ASRK staff and partly from new hires. - Funds received for logistics of move to Astana; management prioritizes training of new and existing staff. - Staffing shortfalls and risks: - Number of staff in national accounts program inadequate to maintain current volume and timeliness. - Recent declines due to attrition ahead of ASRK headquarters reorganization. - Vacancies: five in the National Accounts Department and four in the Price and Labor Statistics Department. - Further reduction of eight staff is expected in the National Accounts Department in context of upcoming administrative reforms. - Only three members of present national accounts staff have received training in the IMF’s national accounts courses. - Work load is very heavy; pressure to increase scope and improve timeliness. - Urgent actions recommended: - Fill current vacancies. - Provide adequate training to new staff. - Ensure sufficient skilled staff particularly for the national accounts program. - Hire and retain qualified young staff to ensure succession and continuity. - Make greater use of available discrete data to compile quarterly national accounts. ### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources - Resources allocated via the Plan of Statistical Activities to achieve efficiency. - Plan avoids duplication by unification of surveys and ensures consistent concepts and classifications across datasets. - Efficiencies achieved through increased use of sample surveys and administrative data. - Plan of Statistical Activities defines expected outputs and completion dates for National Accounts Department and Price and Labor Statistics Department. - Progress monitored at ASRK senior staff meetings. - ASRK seeks external evaluations, advice, and assistance from international agencies (including the European Union and IMF) and bilateral partners (Norway, Sweden, and Turkey). ### 0.3 Relevance - Relevance and practical utility of statistics required by Article 3 of the Law on Official Statistics. - Public Council to Improve State Statistics (established April 18, 2005 by Order No. 63 of the Chairman of the ASRK) functions to implement the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics and: - Determines whether statistics meet users’ needs. - Safeguards reporters’ interests to avoid unnecessary reporting burden. - Reviews the Plan of Statistical Activities to ensure it meets users’ needs. - Provides overall guidelines for statistical development and implementation through the Plan. - A statistics Users’ Group on national accounts established within Public Council to institutionalize ASRK-user interaction and to monitor user needs. - State policy aims to fully adopt international standards to ensure comparability and adherence to international methodologies and classifications. - Users’ Group could advocate reducing respondent burden by collecting information by discrete time period rather than both discrete period and cumulatively from the beginning of the year. ### 0.4 Other quality management - Article 4 of the Law on Official Statistics requires statistics to have “integrity,” be “reliable,” “comprehensive,” and comparable with “statistical standards used in international practice.” - Public Council’s main task includes implementing the United Nations’ Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics; recommendations implemented by ASRK’s Coordination Department. - National accounts staff aware of responsibilities to produce high quality statistics. Processes to monitor and plan for quality: - Public Council monitors quality routinely while reviewing the annual program of statistical activities. - Quality issues addressed at ASRK senior staff meetings. - Three monitoring processes for national accounts program: - Interaction between headquarters and regional staff to review problems in collection and processing of primary and intermediate data. - Users’ feedback via questionnaires available in publications and publication catalogs. - Annual “Open Day” dialogue with users. - Participation of national accounts staff in international statistical forums encourages quality improvements. - Quality considerations are reflected in the Plan of Statistical Activities, considering trade-offs between timeliness and accuracy given need for additional primary data. - Medium-term program of improving statistical activities (2006−2008) developed in consultation with users, business, and researchers and approved by the government in 2005 to align statistics with international standards and best practices. ### 1. Assurances of integrity — professionalism, transparency, ethics - Article 8 of the Law on Official Statistics guarantees full professional independence to the ASRK; chairman and deputy chairpersons appointed by the Prime Minister; ASRK financed through the government budget. - ASRK prepares an annual Plan of Statistical Activities without binding instructions, coordinated with other data-producing agencies and implemented after government approval. - Law on Official Statistics (Article 4) obliges adherence to principles of integrity, neutrality and objectivity. - Professionalism promoted by Public Service Law, Administrative Code and Code of Honor of Public Servants, which include penalties for misuse of public property and confidential information and set qualifications for statistical job series. - Professional skills in statistics and economics considered in compensation and promotion eligibility. - National accounts staff have been invited to conduct national accounts training for other government institutions. - Independence in source selection, statistical techniques, and dissemination is guaranteed by Article 8; compilers decide based solely on statistical considerations balancing quality, timeliness, costs, respondent burden, and international standards. - Dissemination complies with IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). - ASRK can publicly respond to significant technical disputes over interpretation or misuse of statistics; has defended GDP accuracy against contrary allegations from another government agency. - Releases of quarterly and annual data usually supplemented by explanatory material and press briefings. - Transparency measures: - ASRK website disseminates the Law on Official Statistics and documentation on legal/institutional environment. - ASRK provides information on all statistical products and identifies a contact person (with postal address, telephone number, and e-mail) in hard copy publications and on the website. - Survey forms reference the Law on Official Statistics and data confidentiality. - Internal governmental access prior to release: data released simultaneously to all users; no officials outside ASRK have access prior to release; ministerial commentary may be attached but confined mainly to describing movements. - Products are clearly identified by ASRK name and logo; publications by other agencies attribute ASRK. - Advance notice of major methodological changes provided in medium-term program; changes to be implemented in current year identified in annual statistical plan. - Ethical standards: - Staff conduct guided by Code of Honor for public servants and Law on Public Service and departmental statutes prohibit paid positions in business that might create conflicts (excluding research and development). - Staff provided with job descriptions specifying tasks, functions, duties, and norms of conduct. ### 2. Methodological soundness — concepts, scope, classification, recording - PPI concepts and definitions follow international guidelines. - Output PPI weights based on market value of industrial output of Kazakhstan enterprises following the 1993 SNA. - Input PPI weights refer to value of intermediate consumption definition. - Transaction specifications for individual goods to be priced follow guidelines in the PPI Manual. - Output estimates compiled at one- to four-digit industry levels and at several group and class levels down from nine-digit product level; estimates and definitions reviewed annually. - Oil and gas related activities and products included in PPI scope: extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas, manufacturing of relevant refined chemical and petroleum products, manufacturing of gas, distribution of gaseous fuels, transportation via pipelines, and other supporting services. Scope and coverage: - PPI covers core industrial activities and selected energy and production services—including mining, manufacturing, generation and distribution of electric power, gas, and water—covering some 230 commodity groups. - Starting with 2006, mainly comparable wholesale price indices for forestry products and for construction are built separately based on same PPI methodology. - Separate PPIs compiled for transportation and communication services rendered to public and private entities; plans to extend service sector coverage under review. - Main PPI incorporates services of the production type but excludes transportation and communication. - Enterprise coverage of statistical enterprise register used for PPI establishment sample, and product coverage, broadly follows the 1993 SNA including all resident enterprises; small establishments are being added to the register. - Deviations from 1993 SNA product output coverage (mainly exclusion of illegal market goods and services) are explained to the public. Classification and recording: - PPI based on European NACE and CPA-derived activity and product classifications (available on ASRK website). - 1993 SNA followed to classify institutional units and product transactions. - Output PPI uses weights valued at basic prices, excluding the VAT, excise taxes, supply-and-sales and transportation costs. - Input PPI weights use purchaser’s prices, including sales taxes and transportation margins. - Monthly price collection follows same valuation rules. - Priced product specifications include transaction specifications so quality-determining attributes can be kept constant and like compared with like. - Recording basis: all output of included services, finished goods, and work-in-progress is recorded in the period in which they are produced (accrual basis). - For stage of processing indices, net product weights are used to aggregate product PPIs to higher levels to ensure internal consistency and avoid double-counting. *Source: _cr0856 - 0.2 Resources (IMF content unit).* ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### 3.1 Source data - Source data for PPI weights and prices are collected from comprehensive data programs using a State Statistical Register and a sectoral catalog of enterprises as the sample frame; these are regularly updated to reflect the structure of the Kazakhstan economy. - The enterprise survey is carried out annually and used to derive output weights, intermediate input weights, and product weights. - Mining industry: complete coverage where the number of enterprises is small. - Other activities: random sampling to select core enterprises; small enterprises are included in the registry and sampling of small establishments has been initiated in the price survey. - Statistical Reporting Form No.1-CP “Prices of Enterprises—Producers of Industrial Products and Production Services” is revised virtually every year and necessary changes implemented. - Monthly price survey details: - Collects some 4,000 price quotations from about 1,000 establishments. - Survey is carried out for a selected network of core enterprises (mostly large and medium-sized) of all forms of ownership and legal forms. - Large enterprises: all covered by price collection. - Medium-sized enterprises: selected based on scientific sampling. - Geographical coverage: 14 regions, three large cities, as well as the cities of Almaty and Astana. - Producer prices are recorded on a monthly basis between the 15th and 20th days of the reporting month. - Prices recorded for more than 700 types of products and production services accounting for more than 80 percent of the output. - The survey coverage within each main industrial group is also more than 80 percent. - Total of some 4,000 prices are collected on a monthly basis with breakdown by type of activity, product, and stage of processing. - Market environment is studied regionally; product lists are updated regionally and annual specialized surveys of core enterprises are undertaken. Press and research papers monitored for price information. - Weights and price data for oil and gas related activities and products are gathered from all companies operating in the industry through annual survey and monthly price collection, with detail for all main products at all levels of processing. ### 3.1.2 Conformity with definitions, scope, valuation, and timing - Source data are consistent with PPI definitions, scope, and classification, and follow international standards for time of recording, reference periods, and valuation of PPI estimates. ### 3.1.3 Timeliness of source data - Monthly price collection enables timely compilation; producer price data collected between the 15th and 20th days. - Customs price data for import and export unit price indices are provided with a one month lag. - Prices of agricultural products, forestry products and services, construction, cargo transportation, foreign trade and wholesale prices are collected separately. ### 3.2 Assessment of source data - ASRK routinely collects reviewed information on both sampling and nonsampling errors for all surveys; sample selection is adjusted when sampling errors become large. - High-value transactions with abrupt price changes are confirmed with producers; surveys and censuses are audited to verify accuracy. - Regional office staff regularly analyze producer price movements across enterprises and related economic segments to identify nontypical movements; staff visit core enterprises to check reliability. - Logical control steps at country level identify suspect price quotas and clarify individual price quotes; adjustments are made when necessary. ### 3.3 Statistical techniques - ASRK utilizes sound statistical techniques to minimize processing and compilation errors; includes internal data consistency and accuracy checks. - Suspect price records are confirmed with reporting units; nonresponse is kept low by frequent communication. - Unit records are only changed due to attrition or quality and other changes in the transaction or establishment sample. - Missing prices are imputed using different techniques best suited to each situation; main method is to use change in prices of similar products. - Products are added/dropped at the beginning of each year; during the year new transactions may be introduced. If production of a representative product is discontinued, a similar product is selected as replacement. - Quality adjustment: - Both explicit and implicit quality adjustment techniques are used, depending on the product. - Judgmental adjustments based on differences in production costs are used with quantity adjustments. - Index formulae and aggregation: - An unbiased formula is used to calculate basic level price indexes. - The relative of average prices, the Dutot index, is used at the elementary aggregate level for items at each region. - These indices are aggregated using the short-term Laspeyres formula and chaining to the previous period’s index. - When new weights are introduced every year, the new index is linked to the old index using a monthly overlap period to calculate linking factors. - Methodological note and recommendation: - Although the Dutot formula is acceptable as an elementary aggregate index, it requires very homogeneous items and is not invariant to changes in the unit of measurement (fails the commensurability test). - The geometric mean is preferred; "Consider changing the elementary aggregate formula to a geometric mean, as currently recommended by the PPI Manual. In consultation with users, introduce this into the statistical plan over the medium term." ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs - Intermediate results are validated against other information where applicable: - Changes in sublevel PPI are compared with prices of agricultural products, input producer prices, and export prices. - International commodity market price information is also used for validation. - Statistical discrepancies in intermediate data: - Comments on price deviations are provided in the bulletin called “Industrial Producer Price Index” and a similar press release. - Statistical discrepancies and other indicators of problems: - No adjustments are made to the data published as express information and in bulletins. ### 3.5 Revision studies - Studies and analyses of revisions are carried out routinely and used internally to inform statistical processes. - Based on analytical studies, changes are made to instructions regarding the organization of price surveillance and index compilation. - The PPI estimates are not revised; effects of annual weight revisions are explained in annual analytical papers. --- ### 4. Serviceability ### 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - Periodicity meets the SDDS requirements: PPI is compiled monthly. - Timeliness meets the SDDS requirements: monthly PPI estimates are disseminated on the first day following the reporting period. ### 4.2 Consistency - Internal consistency: - PPI estimates for different classifications are internally consistent; the all-item aggregate is invariant to aggregation. - Time consistency: - Consistent time series exist from the beginning of the PPI compilation from year 1992. - The PPI compilation methodology has not been altered since; annual weight updates and accompanying chaining methodology are explained in detail. - Monthly, quarterly, and annual analytical papers, accessible through the ASRK website, explain price index movements in detail. - Consistency with other frameworks: - PPI is consistent with comparable components of the CPI, export price indexes, and the national accounts deflators. ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - Revisions follow a regular and transparent schedule: - Annual PPI weight revision cycle is predetermined and stable from year to year; users are aware of this schedule. - Detailed documentation on revisions is included in ASRK publications. - Clear policy to include new source data as early as possible and established transparent procedures to make improvements. - Actual PPI estimates are not revised. - Preliminary/revised data identification: - Not applicable, as ASRK does not publish preliminary data and PPI estimates are not revised. - Studies and analyses of revisions: - Revisions are clearly identified and explained in statistical publications. - Monthly, quarterly and annual analytical papers, some explaining and analyzing weight revisions, are available on the ASRK website. --- ### 5. Accessibility ### 5.1 Data accessibility - Presentation and interpretation: - ASRK produces a wide range of publications where the PPI is included with accompanying charts, tables, and analysis of current-period developments. - PPI estimates and analysis are presented at various aggregation levels. - Press release gives a quick overview; later same-day express information release “Industrial Producer Price Index”; a few days later "Prices Indices in the Real Sector" provides further analysis; quarterly and annual analytical publications follow. - Data are presented in short- and long-term change form, and in long time series format using different base periods. - ASRK does not seasonally adjust the PPI data. - Series for all oil and gas related products and services are presented separately; a separate monthly publication on prices of oil and refined products is disseminated and includes stage of processing series for oil and gas activities. - Dissemination media and formats: - Publications are available free of charge through the ASRK website or in print by contacting the ASRK office. - Recent data and longer time series can be accessed through a computer database. - Release schedule and equal access: - Preannounced schedule follows a set and stable pattern. - ASRK policy provides simultaneous release of statistics to all users. - Nonroutine data: - Nonconfidential, unpublished specialized tabulations are provided for a charge; availability and terms are made public. ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - Documentation availability: - Comprehensive methodological publications accessible through the ASRK website provide PPI compilation information at various levels of detail. - Short methodological explanations are placed on the first page of every bulletin and other publications such as the “Statistical Yearbook of Kazakhstan.” - Main publications describing PPI definitions and compilation practices: “Methodological Principles for Price Statistics” and “Methodological Principles for Statistics.” - Quarterly and annual analytical publications are compiled. - SDDS metadata are kept under review. - Levels of detail: - ASRK prepares brochures, bulletins, and notes for general users; level of detail varies with the data series. - Reference books are prepared annually analyzing price developments over the past five years. - ASRK website provides methodology information underlying PPI compilation. ### 5.3 Assistance to users - Contact points: - All statistical publications identify individuals who may be contacted by mail, telephone, facsimile, or by e-mail. - Effectiveness and efficiency of user support is monitored periodically. - Catalogs and charges: - ASRK produces a catalog of publications, documents, and services that is widely circulated; prices charged for statistical services and products are clearly disclosed and assistance is provided in placing orders. *Source: _cr0856 - 3. Accuracy and reliability* ### 0. Prerequisites of quality ### 0. Prerequisites of quality ### 0.1 Legal and institutional environment - 0.1.1 The responsibility for collecting, processing, and disseminating statistics is clearly specified - The only agency responsible for collecting, processing, and disseminating government finance statistics (GFS) is the Ministry of Finance (MOF). - The Reporting and Statistics Department (RSD) has the main responsibility for the compilation and dissemination of GFS. - The Treasury Committee compiles and disseminates data on government debt and government guaranteed debt, and the Government Borrowing Department compiles and disseminates data on borrowing. - All aspects of the MOF’s powers and responsibilities are defined in the Budget Code, No. 548 of April 24, 2004 (most recently amended July 5, 2006). Article 4 (36) and (61) state MOF responsibilities for the republican (central government) budget and, within its terms of reference, local budgets and the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK). - The Law on Official Statistics, N 98-1 of May 7, 1997 (amended January 2002 and December 2004) defines powers, functions, and relationships among government agencies performing statistics-related activities. - 0.1.2 Data sharing and coordination among data producing agencies are adequate - Coordination is assured by data provision agreements among agencies and departments specifying lists and reporting formats. - Execution of data provision agreements is provided for under the Law on Official Statistics and government regulatory and working instructions, registered with the Ministry of Justice. - The Law on Official Statistics (Articles 3, 8, and 10) requires full cooperation among state agencies in compilation and dissemination of state statistics. - The effectiveness of data sharing with other agencies is sufficient for the compilation and dissemination of GFS. - 0.1.3 Individual reporters’ data are to be kept confidential and used for statistical purposes only - Statistics compiled and disseminated by the MOF are derived from public records, safeguarded under the Budget Code, the Tax Code, the Law on State Secrets, and the Law on Official Statistics. - The Law on Official Statistics (Article 13) guarantees confidentiality of primary statistical information on individuals and legal entities; primary information may only be disseminated with consent. - Electronically stored data are protected by password access and system access rights. - 0.1.4 Statistical reporting is ensured through legal mandate and/or measures to encourage response - The Budget Code specifies types of reporting, timeliness, and frequency for budget data compilation and dissemination. - Budget Code Article 121(3) specifies formats and Article 123(1) specifies timeliness: monthly and annual for transactions. Article 197 specifies that government and government guaranteed debt data will be disseminated quarterly. - The Law on Official Statistics (Articles 3 and 10) grants rights to authorized agencies to obtain statistical reports based on the schedule in the Statistical Plan prepared by the ASRK. - The Law addresses reporting burden by stipulating confinement to approved forms and close cooperation among statistics collecting agencies. The ASRK runs seminars to assist users and explain statistical needs. ### 0.2 Resources - 0.2.1 Staff, financial, and computing resources are commensurate with statistical programs - The RSD’s budget statistics division has 13 staff; four of whom are dedicated to statistical (budget reporting) compilation. - The MOF Human Resources and Document Control Department provides in-house training programs; attendance is encouraged. - The Treasury Integrated Information System (TIIS) was implemented in full on April 1, 2004, and is used in reporting on republican budget execution and the operation of the Treasury Single Account. - A separate processing system, the Budget Process Monitoring System (BPMS), is still used for local government data processing and compilation of consolidated general government reports. - The RSD has sufficient staff and computing resources for existing responsibilities, but more staff training in GFS methodology is required for transition to the methodology of the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001). - Additional staff resources may be required for implementation of the GFSM 2001. - All staff have tertiary qualifications in economics. - In the last two years, the RSD staff have not attended any training courses provided by international institutions, mainly due to lack of awareness of such courses. - 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources are implemented - Separate costing on the compilation of GFS is not available. - Resource allocation is part of overall management and budgetary control processes, which sets ceilings on departmental expenditure; weekly ministerial meetings raise resource efficiency issues. - The introduction of TIIS has produced significant efficiencies in data recording, collection, and processing, and significantly reduced the time required for data compilation and distribution. ### 0.3 Relevance - 0.3.1 The relevance and practical utility of existing statistics in meeting users’ needs are monitored - The Methodological Council, chaired by the Minister with deputy ministers and heads of various MOF departments and committees, is the main mechanism for monitoring user needs and reviewing methodology, accuracy, and serviceability. The Council meets as necessary, but at least once every quarter. - The Law on Official Statistics (Article 11) recognizes compilation of high quality statistics based on international standards; Article 3 aims for a unified statistical information system based on scientific methodology and international standards. - Fiscal data compilation broadly follows the IMF’s A Manual on Government Finance Statistics (GFSM 1986). - No explicit user survey is conducted by the MOF. User feedback can be provided via the Questions and Answers section of the MOF website, by telephone, and e-mail; comments and suggestions are published in the MOF’s monthly Statistical Bulletin. - Payables and receivables data are not provided to the ASRK to facilitate compilation of government accounts on an accrual basis. - Recommendation: The MOF should consult with the ASRK on supplying information the ASRK can use to produce accrual based institutional sector accounts for general government. ### 0.4 Other quality management - 0.4.1 Processes are in place to focus on quality - Issues of data quality are addressed in the Budget Code and the Law on Official Statistics. - Budget execution data are subjected to internal audit and external review by the parliament and the government of the Republic of Kazakhstan. - The Law on Official Statistics requires implementing measures to ensure collection, processing, and dissemination of high quality statistics; Article 11 requires adoption of statistical methodology in accordance with international statistical standards. - The Budget Code (Article 3) lists desired characteristics of quality. Article 140 establishes the auditing authority of the central executive agency; Article 141 defines functions of the government internal control service; Article 145-2 specifies structure and reporting procedures of audit results. - Parliamentary review: After the Majilis and the senate review the annual report on budget execution, it is approved at a joint session of the houses of Parliament; at approval, the parliament may issue decisions requiring government measures based on results. Local governments submit annual reports on budget execution before the 1st of May each year for review and approval by the maslikhat. The report on budget execution is reviewed by the parliament and maslikhat within about two months and released to the mass media in July or August. - 0.4.2 Processes are in place to monitor the quality of the statistical program - Quality and timeliness of fiscal data are discussed in the MOF’s Methodological Council when developing and approving the GFS work program. - The time required to produce GFS monthly data has significantly reduced and is now 12 days for the republican (central) government budget and 20 days for the state (central and local) government budgets. - 0.4.3 Processes are in place to deal with quality considerations in planning the statistical program - Quality and statistical reporting considerations are integral to the Budget Code governing budget formulation, execution, and reporting. - The 2002 ROSC mission noted a government plan to migrate to GFSM 2001 methodology. With the Budget Code in force as of January 1, 2005, certain GFSM provisions were implemented: operations of the current fiscal year related to recording budget revenues and payments begin on January 1 and end on December 31 of the current calendar year; the structure of the budget has been brought closer into line with the GFSM 2001. ### 1. Assurances of integrity - 1.1 Professionalism - 1.1.1 Statistics are produced on an impartial basis - Legislative provisions under the Budget Code and the Law on Official Statistics, together with adherence to international statistical practices, lay foundations for impartial production of fiscal data. - The Law on Official Statistics (Article 4) requires “integrity, reliability, and sufficiency of statistical indicators” and comprehensiveness and objectivity of analysis. Article 8 states authorized statistical institutions are “independent in issues related to statistical methodology and methods.” - GFS are compiled and disseminated on an impartial basis. - There is no specific training to promote a culture of professional independence and impartiality. - 1.1.2 Choices of sources and statistical techniques as well as decisions about dissemination are informed solely by statistical considerations - Statistical techniques and dissemination decisions are defined in legislative provisions under the Budget Code, adoption of international statistical practices, and principles in the Law on Official Statistics. - The Law on Official Statistics (Article 8) addresses that data sources and statistical techniques are selected on the basis of statistical consideration and objectivity. - 1.1.3 The appropriate statistical entity is entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics - The leadership of the MOF is responsible for responding to erroneous information on budget matters. - The MOF press service prepares comments handled through press releases. - 1.2 Transparency - 1.2.1 The terms and conditions under which statistics are collected, processed, and disseminated are available to the public - Information about laws and practices governing collection, compilation, and dissemination of budget data are available on the MOF’s website and in the Statistical Bulletin. - GFS/SDDS metadata are posted on the ASRK’s website and the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). - Methodological commentary does not disclose that treasury ledger accounts are reconciled with bank balances, although such reconciliation is done daily. - 1.2.2 Internal governmental access to statistics prior to their release is publicly identified - Budget execution data are not released simultaneously to all users. - Monthly republican (central) government budget execution data are made available to the Administration of the President, the government, the Audit Committee for the Supervision over the Execution of the Republican Budget, and the Ministry of the Economy and Budget Planning within 12 days. Other users see the data when published on the MOF website and the Statistical Bulletin, on the first day of the second month following the reporting month. - The mission recommended that users be advised, in the Statistical Bulletin and on the MOF website, that certain users have prior access to budget execution data. - 1.2.3 Products of statistical agencies/units are clearly identified as such - Information published by the MOF on its website and in the Statistical Bulletin is clearly identified. - 1.2.4 Advance notice is given of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques - Major changes affecting budget data production are publicized during budget formulation and in budget documents, but there is no formal advance notification process advising all users. - Major methodological changes are provided with data in the monthly Statistical Bulletin and on the MOF website, after the fact. Occasionally advance notices are disseminated as parts of regulatory legal acts and news releases. - Changes that cause breaks in the time series are clearly identified; explanations and guidance are made through footnotes or detailed notes. Notes on summary methodology are published in all issues of the MOF Statistical Bulletin. - The mission recommended that users be provided with advance notification of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques. - 1.3 Ethical standards - 1.3.1 Guidelines for staff behavior are in place and are well known to the staff - MOF staff are informed of codes of ethics for civil servants prescribing behavior standards; emphasis is on managers’ leadership roles. - Norms and rules for civil servant behavior are contained in the Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan No. 453 of July 23, 1999 (most recently amended July 8, 2005) and in the Code of Honor of Civil Servants approved by Presidential Decree No. 1567 of May 3, 2005. ### 2. Methodological soundness - 2.1 Concepts and definitions - 2.1.1 The overall structure in terms of concepts and definitions follows internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices - The methodology for compiling fiscal data is broadly consistent with the analytical framework set out in the IMF’s GFSM 1986. - With the introduction of the Budget Code, in the 2005 budget, the republican and provincial government budgets adopted a unified legal framework and classification system; the revised budget classification adopted much of the structure and detail of the GFSM 1986 framework. - The calculation of the deficit/surplus in the summary statement on budget execution now takes into account operations in financial assets—above-the-line. Receipts from privatization are included under operations in financial assets. The use of the complementary period was discontinued. - The government has joined the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI); audited accounts under the EITI will be published next year. - Currently, receipts of the NFRK separately identify revenue items derived from oil, gas, and mineral extraction: Corporate income tax; Tax on excess profits; Bonuses (receipts from exploration licenses and one-time payments of 0.01 percent of the value of proven reserves); Royalties; Revenue from production sharing agreements; Rent tax on export of raw oil and gas. - Pollution payments by oil and gas producers are shown in budget revenue as nontax receipts of the Republic of Kazakhstan Ministry of Environmental Protection. - Cross-classification of departmental (functional) classification for the mining, fuel, and energy category and the economic classification could provide information on subsidies, grants, and acquisition of fixed and financial assets, but this information is not disseminated. - Changes in oil reserves are not reflected in central and general government operations. - The GFSM 2001 recommends that transactions in financial assets and net lending should be included under financing—below-the-line. *Source: _cr0856 - 0. Prerequisites of quality* ### 2.2 Scope ### 2.2 Scope ### Institutional coverage and scope of the data - Institutional coverage comprises the units of the state budget, which is the consolidation of the republican (central) and local budgets. Institutional sectors are defined in accordance with the 1993 SNA. - The state budgetary system comprises: - 17 ministries, 20 central agencies and their subordinate institutions (covering around 3,000 institutions); - 14 oblasts (provinces) plus the city of Almaty which has a republican status and the capital city of Astana; - oblasts are divided into rayons—of which there are 159 rural rayons and 37 towns with oblast status—and there are approximately 13,000 government institutions. - The NFRK (National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan) is an extrabudgetary fund of the republican (central) government and is conceptually part of general government. However, it is not consolidated in the coverage of state and republican budget reporting. - Exceptions to coverage: - The data on general and central government operations do not include data on operations of the NFRK. - The mission recommended that the operations of the NFRK be included in the coverage of consolidated central and general government with their mutual commitments netted out. ### Central government operations and the NFRK - The republican budgetary system comprises the operations of the 17 central government ministries and the 20 central agencies and authorities (covering around 3,000 spending units). - The NFRK: - was established in 2000 and is fully owned and controlled by the government; - has been operating as a saving and stabilization fund since May 18, 2001. - NFRK sources (in accordance with the Mid-Term Concept and Budget Code provisions): - direct taxes of oil sector enterprises (with the exception of taxes applied to local budgets): corporate income tax, and tax on excess profits; royalty, bonuses and revenue from production sharing agreements; rent tax on exported crude oil and gas condensate; - proceeds from privatization of government property held as republican property in the mining and processing sectors; - revenue from the sale of agricultural lands; and - other receipts and income not prohibited by legislation of the Republic of Kazakhstan. - Legislative/administrative details: - Changes in 2006 introduced a list of 55 oil sector enterprises which pay direct taxes (excluding taxes paid into local budgets) to the NFRK; the same provisions defined 2006 budget allocations to the NFRK and the size of the guaranteed transfer from the NFRK to finance budgetary development programs. - Reporting and transparency of the NFRK: - Revenue and expense of the fund is reported monthly on the MOF website and in the Statistical Bulletin. - By April 1 following the reference year, the government together with the NBRK compile an annual report on the generation and use of assets of the NFRK, including the audit report. - The annual report is submitted to the President before the 1st of May of each year; information on the annual report is published in the mass media, including the MOF website, within 10 days after the President signs the annual report. - Annual balance sheet items shown on the MOF website: - Assets: Cash and equivalents; Financial assets, at fair value; Derivatives; Debtors. - Liabilities: Derivatives; Creditors; Unspecified item. - Net worth included in the accounts of the government. - Other points: - Revenues and other receipts derived from the oil and gas sector are included in the revenues of the NFRK, which is reported on separately and included in the report on the execution of the consolidated budget (which also includes operations of central and local governments netted out of their mutual commitments). - The NFRK is a saving and stabilization fund and its resources are used in the budget only as guaranteed transfers to finance budgetary development programs. - Exploitable oil reserves are not included in government assets. - The government does not compile a balance sheet. - The government has no direct participation in oil and gas activities. - Budget subsidies to the agriculture sector are included in budget outlays. ### Classification and sectorization - The budget classification is broadly consistent with the classification principles of the GFSM 1986. - Under Chapter 5 of the Budget Code, a uniform budget classification is specified for the recording of budget receipts and expenditure for all levels of government. - The uniform budget classification comprises: - Receipts: tax revenue; nontax revenue; sale of nonfinancial assets; transfers received; receipts from repayment budget lending; receipts from sale of financial assets; government loans. - Expenditures by economic type: expenses; budget lending; acquisition of financial assets; amortization of borrowing. - Expenditures by economic type: current expenses; capital expenditure; budget lending; acquisition of financial assets; amortization of government borrowing. - Expenditures by departmental (functional) classification: by spending unit. - Financing by sector of creditor: domestic; foreign; by sector. - Financing by debt instrument: domestic; foreign; by debt instrument. - The calculation of budget deficit/surplus differs from the GFSM 1986 standard because net acquisition of financial assets is excluded from the GFSM 1986 framework. - Central government operations: - Operations of the republican (central) budget are presented in the same format as those of the state budget, with additional information on outlays classified by economic type. - Central government debt classification and presentation: - Debt data are classified on a residence basis at issuance, with certain assumptions. All debt securities, other than Euronotes, are assumed to be domestic debt. - Bonds purchased by foreigners through government bond dealers are classified as domestic borrowing and debt. The residence basis is not updated to reflect changes in residence status of debtholders resulting from secondary market trading. - Official end-of-period exchange rates for conversion of foreign debt to national currency are provided by the NBRK. - Government guaranteed debt is considered contingent liabilities and is recorded at face value, including balances of all government guaranteed borrowing regardless of whether the guarantee was called. There is no assumption of government guaranteed debt by the budget sector when the borrower defaults; the debt continues to be classified as government guaranteed debt and government repayments of both interest and principal are classified as budget outlays. - If funds are diverted from the republican budget for guaranteed loans, the guarantor (the Republic of Kazakhstan government in the person of the MOF) signs a credit agreement with the borrower for the repayment of loan funds to the republican budget following the procedure established by the legislation. - No market related oil and gas activity units are recorded as components of the central or general government. - Mission recommendations: - When a debtor defaults on government guaranteed debt the debt should be assumed by the guarantor, and shown as government debt. - The creditor agreement with the borrower should be recorded as a government financial asset, which will offset the assumed government debt liability in the government’s balance sheet. This presentation assists transparency, however it requires the dissemination of government financial balance sheets. - Debt data should be compiled on current residence and sector of debtholder basis to reconcile with NBRK monetary and international investment position (IIP) data. ### Basis for recording and valuation - Market prices are used to value flows and stocks where applicable. - General and central government operations: - External government loan receipts and payments are recorded in tenge, using the exchange rate established by the NBRK as of the date the transaction takes place. - Central government debt: - Gross debt is recorded at face value according to the government’s payment obligation on debt maturity. - Recording basis: - Data are based on actual accounting entries of the budgetary units and are recorded on a cash basis. - Expenditures are recorded at the moment when the Single Treasury Account is debited, and revenues are recorded when the Single Treasury Account is credited. - Receipts and payments related to government external loans are recorded on the basis of monthly reports; borrowing is recorded on the date of withdrawal of funds from the creditors’ accounts; settlement and servicing of debt are recorded on the date of crediting the funds to the creditor’s account. - The double entry general ledger system is used to automatically track bank account balances against receipts and payments. - The NBRK provides daily cash balance reports and monthly reports on the Single Treasury Account. - Transition to GFSM 2001: - Currently, the authorities have no program for transition to the methodology of the GFSM 2001. - The Ministry of Economy and Budget Planning; Department of Methodology, Budget Processes, and Analysis is responsible for development of budget methodologies and systems. - Mission recommended that the authorities resume the transition to the methodology of the GFSM 2001 and that, given the ready availability of data on financial assets and liabilities, the first step could be the compilation of government financial balance sheets. ### Grossing/netting procedures - Budget transactions are recorded on a gross basis. - Revenue and expenditure repayments are considered adjustment transactions and are subtracted from the appropriate category of revenue or expenditure. - Data for the general government sector are a consolidation of the republican and local budget data, excluding the NFRK. - Taxes paid by spending agencies are not excluded from the data on revenue when consolidating data for the state budget. - The “consolidated” presentation of general government data on the MOF website and in the Statistical Bulletin, covering the republican and local budgets and the operations of the NFRK, does not provide a consolidated total that accords with the consolidation methodology of the GFSM. - Recommendation: - The consolidated data on general government, which includes the NFRK, should be presented in accordance with the methodology of the GFSM 2001. ### Accuracy and reliability — source data and compilation systems - Source data: - Based on accounting records of actual transactions kept by the Treasury Committee of the MOF in its TIIS. - Data are sufficiently complete for aggregation and consolidation of republican (central) and state (general) government operations. - Data on investment projects completed out of external government loans correspond to monthly reports submitted to the MOF by implementing agencies. - Provincial government operations are reported by financial departments of provinces directly to the RSD and processed on the BPMS. - Central government debt data: - Based on actual bookkeeping entries of the Treasury Committee. - Compiled using statements on creditors’ drawing of funds, confirmations from creditors, and reports of servicing banks (agent banks). - Compiled on a quarterly basis using the computerized Debt Management System. - Transactions on central and general government oil and gas revenue are obtained from administrative records held by the Treasury Committee and published in monthly reports on the operations of the NFRK. - No data are available on other economic flows and nonfinancial assets (including subsoil assets). - Source data assessment: - Source data approximate GFSM 1986 methodology and are timely; RSD has timely access to required data and most data are obtained electronically in agreed formats under Budget Code edicts and data sharing agreements. - Statistical techniques and processing systems: - Data are compiled on the TIIS, the BPMS, and the Debt Management System programmed to process data in accordance with the Budget Code. - The complementary period adjustment was replaced with a provision for construction projects to carry over 10 percent of the project cost funding to the next period (administrative arrangement; does not affect cash-basis measures). - Data on nonbank financing is estimated using methodology recommended by the IMF. - Validation and cross-checks: - No validations of intermediate revenue and expenditure budget data are required; double entry recording and daily reconciliation of Treasury Committee and NBRK data validate above-the-line transactions against financing data. - Statistical discrepancies between the deficit/surplus and financing, and between financing and changes in gross debt are investigated. - The only cross-sectoral data checks are daily reconciliations of Treasury Committee budget financing and NBRK government bank accounts. - MOF compiles debt data and provides them to the NBRK, making those series consistent. No cross checks are made with IIP and national accounts data. - Revision practices: - No routine revision studies and analyses are conducted. - Budget execution reports are subject to external audit by the Accounting/Comptroller Committee. - Budget execution data are not normally replaced by audited data to allow revision studies; data posted on the MOF and SDDS websites and published in the Statistical Bulletin are not normally revised—errors in past periods are adjusted in the current period. - Data for 2003 and 2004 were revised (reclassified) when the new classification system and reporting formats were introduced in the 2005 budget. - The complementary period is no longer used and revisions for that reason are no longer necessary. ### Serviceability — periodicity and timeliness - Periodicity: - Data on the execution of the state budget are disseminated monthly. - Data on the execution of the republican (central) budget are disseminated monthly. - Breakdown of domestic financing into bank and nonbank financing is compiled quarterly. - Data on nonbank financing are estimated using methodology recommended by the IMF. - Kazakhstan is availing itself of a flexibility option on the periodicity of the central government operations financing data. - Central government debt data for the central and local governments and the NBRK are disseminated quarterly. - Timeliness: - Monthly data on state budget operations are published on the MOF website and in the Statistical Bulletin by the first or second day of the following month. - Monthly data on republican (central) government operations are also published on the MOF website and in the Statistical Bulletin by the first or second day of the following month. - The breakdown of domestic financing into bank and nonbank financing is compiled quarterly and provided to the ASRK for publication on the DBBS website, under the SDDS flexibility option. - Central government debt data are disseminated on the MOF website and in the Statistical Bulletin within one month after the reference period. - Dissemination of GFS exceeds the periodicity and timeliness requirements recommended by the SDDS for central government and general government operations; central government debt dissemination also exceeds SDDS requirements. *Source: _cr0856 - 2.2 Scope* ### 4.2 Consistency ### 4.2 Consistency ### 4.2.1 Statistics are consistent within the dataset - Monthly budget data processing procedures ensure that the monthly data link consistently to annual data. - Time series may not be consistent over time due to allocation of adjustments to past periods to the latest period. - Earlier series, for 2003 and 2004, were adjusted to account for discontinuities arising from changes to methodology. - Major breaks in time series are clearly identified and explanations are provided. - Appropriate notes accompany the data table and, if changes are significant, the MOF Statistical Bulletin provides a summary methodology that explains methodology changes. - The Treasury Committee maintains a record of all borrowing in foreign currencies and is able to reconcile financing data with changes in debt. ### 4.2.2 Statistics are consistent or reconcilable over a reasonable period of time - Budget data are reconcilable back to and including data for 2003. ### 4.2.3 Statistics are consistent or reconcilable with those obtained through other data sources and/or statistical frameworks - Fiscal data are not consistent with the monetary and external sector statistics, indicating a need for further validation of the data. - Financing and debt data classified by debtholder are not classified with regard to current residency status and differ from monetary and IIP data (see 2.3.1). - Under the Resolution of the government of the Republic of Kazakhstan No. 941 of September 8, 2004, government securities sold through authorized dealers are classified as domestic financing and debt. - The mission recommended that the MOF establish a formal reconciliation process with the NBRK to explain the differences among fiscal, monetary, and IIP data. ### 4.3 Revisions policy and practice - 4.3.1 Revisions follow a regular and transparent schedule - Monthly and annual statistics based on budget execution data are normally not revised. - 4.3.2 Preliminary and/or revised data are clearly identified - The statistics published in the MOF Statistical Bulletin and on its website are not revised. - 4.3.3 Studies and analyses of revisions are made public (see also 3.5.1) - No studies or analyses of budget data revisions are undertaken. - The mission recommended that arrears transactions in current period cash data be identified and explained. - The mission recommended that published cumulative budget execution data should be replaced by audited annual data. ### 5 Accessibility #### 5.1 Data accessibility - 5.1.1 Statistics are presented in a way that facilitates proper interpretation and meaningful comparisons (layout and clarity of text, tables, and charts) - Statistics on budgetary government operations are presented in a way that allows major aggregates and balancing items to be identified and related to detailed underlying data. - The information presented is suitable for use in budget development and monitoring. - Statistics that are provided approximate the detail and coverage set out in the GFSM 1986 tables. - Time series can be obtained from archived issues of the Statistical Bulletin available on the MOF website. - Data are disseminated separately for the republican government, the consolidated provincial governments, and the state government (consolidation of republican and provincial government budgetary operations). - The MOF Statistical Bulletin publishes monthly data on the flows of funds of the NFRK, which would allow its consolidation with the budget sector. - The “consolidated” presentation of general government data on the MOF website and in the Statistical Bulletin, covering the republican and local budgets and the operations of the NFRK, does not provide a consolidated total that accords with the consolidation methodology of the GFSM. - Monthly data on the operations of the NFRK are disseminated concurrently with the budget data—as described in 2.2.1. - State (general) and republican (central) government budget execution data include detailed revenue and outlay categories and balancing items as listed below: - Revenue: - Corporate income tax - Personal income tax - Social tax - VAT - Excises - Nontax revenue - Sale of fixed assets - Official transfers - Outlays: - General public services - Defense - Public order and safety - Education - Health - Social protection - Housing and community amenities - Culture, sport, tourism, and media - Fuel, energy, and mining - Environmental protection - Manufacturing and construction - Transport and communication - Other - Debt servicing - Official transfers - Balances and financial operations: - Operating balance - Net budget lending - Budget lending - Repayments - Net operations in financial assets - Acquisition of financial assets - Sale of financial assets - Budget deficit/surplus - Budget financing - Domestic - Foreign - Central government debt—quarterly debt data published on the MOF website and in the Statistical Bulletin show the following detail: - Government debt (total of the debt of central government, local governments and the NBRK netted out of mutual commitments (consolidated in GFSM terminology)) - Central government debt - Internal debt - Government short-term treasury securities - Government medium-term treasury securities - Government long-term treasury securities - Government medium-term indexed treasury securities - Government long-term indexed treasury securities - Government long-term savings treasury securities - External debt - International Bank for Reconstruction and Development - Asian Development Bank - EBRD - Islamic Development Bank - Saudi Development Fund - Kuwait Fund - Abu Dhabi Fund - Japan Bank for International Cooperation - German government - Foreign commercial banks - Euronotes - NBRK debt - Internal - External - Local government debt - To central government - To other creditors - Government guaranteed debt - Internal - External - The following data items pertaining to the oil and gas sector are disseminated separately: - revenues generated from direct taxes, including income taxes and royalty payments; and - revenue from one-time “bonuses” on granting of exploration licenses and right to proven reserves. - 5.1.2 Dissemination media and formats are adequate - In the monthly Statistical Bulletin, cumulative data are presented for the latest year and the two previous years. - Discrete quarterly data are presented for the latest year and the previous year. - Cumulative data for the latest month are presented for all categories of revenue and outlays. - Detailed cumulative data on financing, classified by creditor and debt instrument, are shown for the latest month with annual data for the two previous years. - Budget execution data published in the monthly Statistical Bulletin and the MOF website are presented in the following format: I. Revenue II. Outlays III. Operating balance IV. Net budget lending V. Net acquisition of financial assets VI. Budget deficit (surplus) VII. Financing - The monthly Statistical Bulletin is available in Kazakhstani and Russian by paid subscription through any post office outlet of Kazpochta joint stock company, referring to the current subscription index number 35663 or the annual subscription index number 45663; it may also be purchased at the Shok Department Store, 134 Muratbaeva St., Almaty. - The same data are available on the internet at http//:www.minfin.kz. - 5.1.3 Statistics are released on a preannounced schedule - No advance release calendar is provided for budget execution and debt data; however, users are advised in the Statistical Bulletin that the bulletin is published between the 1st and 15th of each month. - An SDDS advance release calendar (in English and Russian), which gives advance notice of the approximate data release dates at the beginning of the year, is posted on the website of the ASRK (http://www.stat.kz). - 5.1.4 Statistics are made available to all users at the same time - Monthly republican (central) government budget execution data are made available to the Administration of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the government of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Audit Committee for the Supervision over the Execution of the Republican Budget and the Ministry of the Economy and Budget Planning within 12 days. - The data are disseminated to all other users when they are published on the MOF website and the Statistical Bulletin, usually on the second day of the following months. - 5.1.5 Statistics not routinely disseminated are made available upon request - Except for information classified as state secrets, budget data are compiled from public records and users can request further details. - The MOF website and the MOF Statistical Bulletin provide clear contact information for users. #### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - 5.2.1 Documentation on concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques is available, and differences from internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices are annotated - A summary of the methodology, explanatory notes, and concepts and definitions used is published in the monthly Statistical Bulletin and on the websites of the ASRK (http://www.stat.kz) and the IMF (http://www.dsbb.imf.org). - 5.2.2 Levels of detail are adapted to the needs of the intended audience - The government is both the compiler and principal user of budget execution data. - The detail of the required data is constantly monitored and amended during the budget formulation process. #### 5.3 Assistance to users - 5.3.1 Contact person for each subject field is publicized - The contact persons for statistics on government operations, and their contact details, are publicized in the MOF Statistical Bulletin, and on the MOF and IMF’s websites. - The MOF provides reasonable timely responses to queries, as required by the Budget Code. - 5.3.2 Catalogs of publications, documents, and other services, including information on any charges, are widely available - The MOF’s website provides information regarding statistical publications, budget documents, and government legislation affecting budget matters. *Source: _cr0856 - 4.2 Consistency (IMF Staff Report content provided).* ### 0.3 Relevance ### 0.3 Relevance ### 0.3.1 The relevance and practical utility of existing statistics in meeting users’ needs are monitored - The NBRK consistently aims to adopt international standards in monetary statistics that meet users’ needs. - Almost all staff of the NBRK’s statistics division have attended regional IMF training courses in monetary and financial statistics. - The head of the statistics division participates in international and regional seminars. - A December 2001 change: banks’ transactions with central government and nonfinancial public enterprises were separately identified. - Formal user surveys are not in place; user feedback is considered when preparing the statistical program. - The NBRK conducts active consultations and outreach (press conferences, press releases, television programs) to identify emerging information needs. *Source: _cr0856 - 0.3 Relevance* --- ### 0.4 Other quality management ### 0.4.1 Processes are in place to focus on quality - The ASRK coordinates state bodies producing statistics to improve official statistics quality. - Budget and resource requests of the Research and Statistics Department of the NBRK attract strong support from the NBRK Governor. - Management’s efforts to meet Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) requirements demonstrate a commitment to high-quality data. ### 0.4.2 Processes are in place to monitor the quality of the statistical program - Regular reviews by staff of the NBRK’s Research and Statistics Department identify problems during data collection, processing, and dissemination. - Efforts to enhance user access via the NBRK’s website and to improve the NBRK’s Statistical Bulletin indicate monitoring of dissemination quality. - No independent review body exists to provide guidance on the quality of statistics disseminated by the NBRK. - Recommendation: The NBRK could set up regular user surveys on monetary statistics itself or have such surveys done through the ASRK, which conducts regular user surveys on national accounts statistics. ### 0.4.3 Processes are in place to deal with quality considerations in planning the statistical program - The NBRK’s annual statistical program is formulated in the context of the medium term work program for statistics prepared by the ASRK in consultation with other data producers. - The medium-term framework helps establish data priorities and address trade-offs between accuracy and timeliness given available budgetary resources. - Formation of a working group of the NBRK and AFO indicates appreciation of tradeoffs between resource availability and timeliness for source data collection. - While no formal mechanism exists for soliciting user feedback, the NBRK’s outreach programs actively consult users to identify needs. *Source: _cr0856 - 0.3 Relevance* --- ### 1 Integrity ### 1.1 Professionalism #### 1.1.1 Statistics are compiled on an impartial basis - Government officials do not comment on or regulate the release of data by the NBRK. - Monetary statistics are made available to all users at the same time. - The appointment of the head of the NBRK’s Research and Statistics Department is not subject to governmental approval. - Compilers are hired on a competitive basis; vacancies are publicly advertised and staff are expected to adhere to civil service standards. #### 1.1.2 Choices of sources and statistical techniques are informed solely by statistical considerations - Data processing and validation technique choices are based solely on statistical considerations. #### 1.1.3 The appropriate statistical entity is entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics - Compilers actively monitor financial press and media; when erroneous interpretations occur the NBRK provides its interpretation. ### 1.2 Transparency #### 1.2.1 Terms and conditions under which statistics are collected, processed, and disseminated are available to the public - Laws and codes governing collection of monetary statistics in Kazakhstan are posted on the NBRK’s website. - Kazakhstan’s SDDS metadata provide information on processing and dissemination of monetary statistics and identify a contact person at the NBRK. #### 1.2.2 Internal governmental access to statistics prior to their release is publicly identified - Prior government access to monetary statistics is identified in Kazakhstan’s SDDS metadata. #### 1.2.3 Products of statistical agencies/units are clearly identified as such - NBRK publications clearly identify the NBRK as the publisher. - Attribution is required if the NBRK’s monetary statistics are publicly quoted by other entities. #### 1.2.4 Advance notice is given of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques - Users are notified of major changes when they occur and not prior to their introduction. - Recommendation: Users should be given advance notice of major changes in methodology, data sources, and statistical techniques. ### 1.3 Ethical standards #### 1.3.1 Guidelines for staff behavior are in place and are well known to the staff - NBRK staff are required to follow the civil service Code of Honor, which specifies ethical and professional standards. *Source: _cr0856 - 0.3 Relevance* --- ### 2 Methodological soundness ### 2.1 Concepts and definitions #### 2.1.1 The overall structure in terms of concepts and definitions follows internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices - The analytical framework used by the NBRK in compiling surveys of the NBRK and “second-level banks” reflects concepts and principles based on the IMF’s Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual 2000 (MFSM). - The banking system survey is analogous in scope and concept to the depository corporations survey recommended in the MFSM and largely provides the full range of instrument and sector detail recommended by the MFSM. - The banking system survey consolidates accounts of the NBRK and second-level banks and, for transparency, includes assets of the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK) managed by the NBRK, together with related NBRK liability items to the NFRK. - Key aggregates identified in the banking system survey: - Broad money, M3: comprises currency in circulation (M0) and domestic and foreign currency denominated deposits of nonbank financial institutions, nonfinancial corporations, regional and local governments, nonprofit institutions serving households, and households. M0 and M3 are identified; M1 and M2 are also presented in a separate monetary aggregates table. M1 = M0 plus transferable deposits of nonbank entities and households in national currency; M2 = M1 plus other deposits in national currency and transferable deposits in foreign currency of nonbank entities and households. - Domestic credit disaggregated by sector: net claims on central government; claims on local and regional governments (prior to December 2001 data were submitted for general government as a whole); claims on nonbank financial institutions; claims on public and private nonfinancial institutions (prior to December 2001 data were submitted for nonfinancial institutions as a whole); claims on nonprofit institutions serving households; claims on households. Net claims on central government nets gross claims on central government (broken down into credits, securities, and other receivables) against gross liabilities to government (broken down into deposits, securities, credits, and other payables). - Net foreign assets (NFA) of the banking system: gross claims on nonresidents in freely convertible currency (with a detailed breakdown by instruments); gross liabilities to nonresidents in freely convertible currency (with a detailed breakdown by instruments); other net foreign assets in nonconvertible currencies (with a breakdown by gross claims and liabilities). - Two measures of reserve money (monetary base) are presented in the Statistical Bulletin: - Reserve Money (RM): includes currency in circulation, transferable deposits and other (interest-bearing) deposits of banks, and transferable deposits of nonbank financial institutions and public and private nonfinancial institutions. - Narrow Reserve Money (NRM): published from April, 2006; consists of currency in circulation and noninterest-bearing deposits of banks (correspondent accounts) at the NBRK. NRM was introduced to better track the NBRK’s efforts to affect liquidity in the banking system. - Recommendation: Provide the definition of and data for required reserves (RR) in the NBRK’s Statistical Bulletin to better facilitate users’ understanding of the relationship between RR, NRM, and RM. (See Section 5.1.1.) *Source: _cr0856 - 0.3 Relevance* ### 2.2 Scope #### 2.2.1 The scope is broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices - No single definition of broad money is prescribed in the MFSM; national definitions vary. - In Kazakhstan, all financial institutions issuing liabilities meeting the definition of broad money, M3, are included in the banking system survey. - The banking system survey includes coverage of all active financial institutions issuing broad money liabilities, based on balance sheets of the NBRK and commercial banks (34, as of November, 2006), covering head offices and branches located in Kazakhstan. - Prior treatment: banks’ claims on and liabilities to foreign-owned entities operating in Kazakhstan were reported as claims on and liabilities to nonresidents, while operations of two foreign branches of two domestic banks were treated as resident; this legal residency treatment was inconsistent with MFSM and BPM5. - In June 2004, an additional report form was introduced to collect data allowing monetary statistics to be compiled in accordance with MFSM and BPM5 residency concepts. As a result, monetary and IIP data from June 2004 now fully incorporate the MFSM and BPM5 concept of residency and are consistent with each other. - Central bank survey covers the consolidated accounts of the NBRK’s head office in Almaty, its 16 branches, and two subsidiaries. - The NFRK’s holdings of foreign assets are not included on the NBRK accounting balance sheet but are included in the NBRK survey as a separate line item under NFA, together with a liability counterpart under net domestic assets (NDA). - Credit partnerships (CPs): - For December 2003 through December 2005, CPs were included in the banking system survey. - Since January 2006, CPs have been excluded due to a legal modification redefining CPs as entities outside AFS supervision. - NBRK retains legal jurisdiction to collect reports from CPs but stopped data collection because: (1) without AFS supervision, concerns about reliability of CP data; (2) without AFS licensing, NBRK could not track how many new CPs were being created. - Presently, 2005 data show assets of CPs are 0.7 percent of total banking system assets. - Recommendation: Resume collection of data on CPs and their coverage in the banking system survey; liaise with the Ministry of Justice to keep track of the number of new CPs being created. - Balance sheets of banks in liquidation are not included; deposits held with these institutions represent less than 0.03 percent of the stock of broad money, so exclusion is not material at this time. - The NBRK began publishing the financial sector survey in 2003 to expand coverage to mortgage companies (eight as of November 2006) and the Bank of Development; steps underway to further expand coverage to insurance and reinsurance companies. - Note on CPs: exclusion currently not material, but if CPs grow rapidly they may become material for monetary and credit activities. *Source: _cr0856 - 0.3 Relevance* ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization #### 2.3.1 Classification/sectorization systems used are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices - Banks’ balance sheet counterparty sector information permits grouping into mutually exclusive sectors largely in accordance with the MFSM: - (i) central bank (NBRK), (ii) banks (second-level banks), (iii) nonbank financial institutions, (iv) public nonfinancial institutions, (v) private nonfinancial institutions, (vi) central government, (vii) regional and local government, (viii) households, (ix) nonprofit institutions serving households. - Exception: NBRK “notes held by banks” include some NBRK notes held by institutional units other than banks; fully sectorized data are collected but not disseminated due to timeliness. - NFRK assets managed by the NBRK are included under foreign assets in the NBRK survey and classified as nonreserve assets for transparency; the deposit liabilities of the NBRK to the NFRK are presented as a separate line item under NDA and are not identified as belonging to the central government sector. - Timing differences mean deposits and foreign assets of the NFRK shown in the NBRK survey are not always equivalent. - The NBRK views the NFRK as not a legal entity in its own right and thus not needing sectorization; however, under international standards, if the NFRK is classified as an extrabudgetary unit of the central government in GFS, then NBRK liabilities to the NFRK should be classified as belonging to the central government sector. - The NBRK stands ready to classify liabilities of the NBRK to NFRK as liabilities to the central government sector if GFS determines the NFRK should be treated as an extrabudgetary fund of central government. - Classification of financial instruments is largely in line with MFSM guidelines; minor exception: insurance technical reserves are not separately identified (not currently relevant for banking institutions in Kazakhstan). - Financial derivatives with nonresidents are separately identified; recent improvement: derivatives with resident units are now fully sectorized. - Repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements: - Recorded as separate items on reported balance sheets. - Repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements with resident institutions are classified as credit liabilities and credit assets, respectively, in NBRK and second-level banks survey; at banking system survey level they are classified as other liabilities and loans, respectively. - Repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements with nonresidents are classified as foreign liabilities and foreign assets, respectively, in accordance with international guidelines. - Gold swaps are treated as collateralized loans in line with international guidelines. - Recommendation: Classify the liabilities of the NBRK to NFRK as belonging to the central government sector, in line with the recommended treatment of NFRK in GFS. *Source: _cr0856 - 0.3 Relevance* ### 2.4 Basis for recording ### _cr0856 - 2.4 Basis for recording ### 2.4 Basis for recording — valuation and recording principles - Market prices are used to value flows and stocks. The NBRK revalues its holdings of securities at market prices on a monthly basis in accordance with international statistical guidelines. - Commercial banks’ chart of accounts guidance: holdings of securities are valued at market prices, except for securities intended to be held to maturity or held for investment purposes; these are valued at their amortized cost/purchase price, except where the issuing institutions have negative equity. - Financial derivatives are valued at market prices. - Foreign currency-denominated securities are revalued according to quotations (prices) set at the close of trading on external financial markets on the next-to-last business day of the calendar month or the day preceding the day the securities are sold. With automation the revaluation can be performed on a daily basis; in practice the NBRK undertakes revaluation on a monthly basis. - Both the NBRK and banks translate foreign currency-denominated assets and liabilities to the national currency on a daily basis using the weighted average market exchange rate for the tenge. - Equities: valued on the basis of prices at the close of trading on the domestic stock exchange on the last business day of the calendar month or the day on which the given securities are sold. - Monetary gold held by the NBRK is revalued daily using the morning fixing on the London Bullion Metal Auction (LBMA) and the average weighted market tenge/U.S. dollar exchange rate. - Loans in the NBRK survey and second-level banks survey are valued at current book value—the outstanding principal amount at its original cost plus any accrued interest18—without adjustment for expected loan losses or provisions arising from anticipated defaults by borrowers. - Valuation adjustments (including holding gains and losses on financial instruments) are separately identified in the reported balance sheets, but not separately identified in the banking system survey and related surveys. - Under international standards, securities held for investments should also be valued at market prices. - Recommendation from source text: "Revalue securities held for investment purposes at market prices, not historic or amortized costs." - Accrual accounting is used: interest due but not paid is incorporated into the outstanding amount of the financial asset or liability, except accrued interest on loans and other assets more than 30 days overdue is not incorporated into the underlying instrument in the creditor’s balance sheet. Arrears for payments or other charges associated with off-balance sheet accounts are not included in the balance sheet. - Transactions in financial instruments are recorded at the time of the transaction, not at the time of receipt and payment of funds. - Grossing/netting: monetary statistics are generally presented on a gross basis in line with international standards. However, the banking system survey and related surveys present data on a net basis for foreign assets and foreign liabilities, and for claims on and liabilities to central government; underlying gross data are also shown in accordance with the MFSM. The banking system survey is obtained by canceling appropriate bilateral claims and liabilities. ### 3 Accuracy and reliability — source data, assessment, and statistical techniques - Source data: - The accounting records of the NBRK and commercial banks are maintained in accordance with separate plans of accounts. - The NBRK’s Accounting Department and Monetary Operations Department provide a complete set of detailed accounting balances to the NBRK’s statistics division together with supplementary information on the assets of the NFRK for use in compiling the NBRK survey. - Commercial banks report balance sheet accounts on the report form 700N at a seven-digit level; the last three digits relate to residency of the counterparty, sector of counterparty, and currency denomination. No sampling or estimation is applied. - The NBRK’s statistics division maintains close contact with the AFS and its Monetary Operations Department to monitor developments in the financial sector and identify new financial instruments and institutions. - Source data approximate required definitions and classifications: - Banks are instructed to use the sector of the original purchaser of securities when it is not possible to identify the sector of the current holder. - NBRK statistics division staff review classification on a bank-by-bank basis and provide guidance notes on sector classification; banks may be consulted directly when difficult classification issues arise. - Staff are aware of differences in classification between primary and secondary data sources (e.g., reverse repos and financial leases classified with loans in monetary accounts while some secondary sources provide information on bank loans only). - Timeliness of source data: - Balance sheet reports of commercial banks are filed with the AFS within five working days after the reference month. - After checking and validation, balance sheet reports are made available to the NBRK’s statistics division within 11 working days after the reference month. - The accounts of the NBRK are made available to the NBRK’s statistics division on the first working day after the reference month. - Compilation of the NBRK survey and the second-level banks survey is usually completed the day after the accounts of the NBRK and the second-level banks are made available to the statistics division. - Final end-December data for the NBRK and commercial banks are usually delayed because of end-year auditing obligations; preliminary end-December data are used until final data are available. - Banks in the process of liquidation file balance sheet reports on a quarterly basis to the AFS. - Assessment of source data: - AFS undertakes initial validation of banks’ reported balance sheet accounts; the NBRK’s statistics division undertakes additional intertemporal consistency checks on aggregated bank balance sheet data. - Automated cross-checking on a bank-by-bank basis is done using the NBRK’s Statistics Automated Information system (‘Statistics’ AIS). - Statistics division staff have on-line access to individual bank returns and NBRK detailed accounts; any proposed changes to accounting and classification guidelines are coordinated with the statistics division to ensure conformity with international statistical standards. - Statistical techniques: - Detailed charts of accounts provide a structured framework approximating the sectoral balance sheets specified in the MFSM; electronic reporting and detailed documentation minimize processing errors. - Separate data on accrued interest on the NBRK’s claims and liabilities are further sectorized using supplementary information from the NBRK’s Accounting Department. - Treatment of the assets of the NFRK in the NBRK survey includes making counterpart liability entries to maintain balance sheet integrity. - Statement from source: "The statistical procedures for treatment of NFRK assets and liabilities are sound." - Validation and discrepancies: - Reported balance sheet data in AIS are subjected to automated cross-checks against supplementary information on credits and deposits; AIS produces an error report highlighting inconsistencies. - Any statistical discrepancies in reported balance sheet data are investigated by staff of the statistics division and AFS. - Large or unexplained fluctuations in monetary or credit aggregates are traced back to individual bank(s) and explanations are sought. - Revisions: - Misclassifications of accounts identified in reports submitted by banks five days or more after the reporting period are corrected in the report for the next reporting period. - Statistics division staff provide explanations to banks on proper classification; in the event of material revisions, misclassifications are examined carefully. - Revisions are made whenever inconsistencies with IIP statistics suggest a problem on the monetary side; monetary revisions implicitly follow the quarterly cycle used by the BOP/IIP division. - An identified area not revised: notes issued by the NBRK are treated in the NBRK survey as being held fully by banks even though some are held by other institutional units (see Section 2.3.1). Banks do not submit revised historical data in case of misclassification identified in the current period. - Recommendation from source text: "The data on NBRK 'notes held by banks' should be revised when fully sectorized data on the notes become available. Alternatively, total NBRK notes can first be shown as a separate item on the liability side of the NBRK survey and the data on holdings by sector provided as components when they become available." - Preliminary and final end-December data are identified as such; studies and analyses of revisions are not made public. ### 4 Serviceability — periodicity, consistency, and revision practice - Periodicity: - The surveys of the NBRK, second-level banks, and the banking system are disseminated on a monthly basis, consistent with the SDDS. - Timeliness: - The banking system survey, broad money, credit aggregates, and net foreign assets are disseminated on the NBRK’s website 25 days after the end of the reference month. - Central bank aggregates are disseminated one week after the reference month. - Both meet SDDS requirements. - The same data are published in the NBRK’s monthly Statistical Bulletin approximately five−six weeks after the end of the reference month. - Internal consistency: - Source data are collected in a balance sheet framework ensuring accounting identities are maintained; published data are presented in a balance sheet framework ensuring identity between NFA, NDA, and broad money. - Exclusion of balance sheets of banks in liquidation complicates interbank position consistency. - Some differences exist between data on credit advanced by the NBRK to commercial banks and corresponding data on commercial banks’ credits received from the NBRK. Bilateral positions between commercial banks are reasonably consistent. - Time consistency and historical availability: - Monetary statistics compiled from the current chart of accounts are available from 1997 onwards. - Brief footnotes to published data describe some methodological changes (for example the delineation of central government accounts from accounts of other levels of government), but breaks in series arising from changes in the number of reporting banks or other reasons (aside from changes in methodology) are not routinely identified. - Reconciliation with other frameworks: - Kazakhstan’s monetary statistics and IIP data are fully consistent (see Section 2.2.1). - Differences continue to exist between changes in net credit to central government in monetary statistics and bank financing of the central government in the fiscal accounts. - The NBRK’s statistics division provides financial sector statistics to the ASRK for development of flow of funds and the financial account of Kazakhstan; flow of funds and the financial account of Kazakhstan are not published to date. The data for commercial banks are provided for stocks only. - Recommendation from source text: "Discrepancies between monetary and GFS data should be reconciled in consultation with the compilers in the MOF and the reconciliation disseminated." ### 5 Accessibility — presentation, dissemination, and user access - Presentation and metadata: - Monetary statistics are presented in a generally clear manner in the NBRK’s Statistical Bulletin using tables. - No commentary is provided in the English version of the Bulletin; methodological notes and descriptions of certain indicators are provided in the Russian and Kazakh versions. - Commentary and analysis of trends are provided in the NBRK’s Economic Review. - Suggestion from source text: with publication of a new data series like NRM to supplement RM, "it would be useful to include an accompanying definition and data for RR, in order to allow users to better understand the relationship between RR, NRM, and RM." - Inclusion of the same methodological information in the English version as in the Russian and Kazakh versions of the Statistical Bulletin would be helpful to international users. - Dissemination media and formats: - Key monetary and credit aggregates are made available in press releases and/or the NBRK’s website. - More detailed data are provided in the NBRK’s Statistical Bulletin together with recent historical data; longer time series data are made available upon request. - The NBRK’s website has been enhanced with more publications, more data series, in greater detail and timeliness, and metadata; visitor numbers have increased and feedback has been excellent. - Release schedule and access: - The NBRK disseminates an advance release calendar (ARC) for monetary statistics on its website; the ARC gives one-quarter-ahead notice of precise release dates. - Monetary statistics are posted on the NBRK website and available to all users at the same time. - Additional statistics not routinely disseminated are made available upon request. *Source: _cr0856 - 2.4 Basis for recording* ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility ### 5.2 Metadata accessibility ### 5.2.1 Documentation and standards - Kazakhstan’s SDDS metadata describes the broad scope, main concepts, and definitions used in compiling the banking system and related surveys. - The metadata are updated quarterly via the ASRK. - Methodological notes are provided in Kazakh and Russian on the NBRK’s website. - Key differences from international standards are highlighted in the SDDS metadata. - The NBRK website provides a hyperlink to the SDDS metadata. ### 5.2.2 Levels of detail - The NBRK’s paper publications, website, and SDDS metadata provide alternative levels of detail on the methodology employed in compiling Kazakhstan’s monetary statistics. ### 5.3 Assistance to users - Contact information on monetary statistics is available in the SDDS webpage. - The NBRK’s Statistical Bulletin provides a telephone number for the contact person in monetary statistics. - The NBRK does not disseminate a catalog of publications but a list of NBRK publications and charges is available from the publishers of NBRK documents. - Major NBRK publications are available on the NBRK website for downloading free of any charges. *Table: Data Quality Assessment Framework (July 2003): Summary of Results for Monetary Statistics (Compiling Agency: National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan)* ### Data quality assessment: selected findings (as presented) - Prerequisites of quality - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: O - 0.2 Resources: O - 0.3 Relevance: O - 0.4 Other quality management: X - Assurances of integrity - 1.1 Professionalism: O - 1.2 Transparency: X — "No advance notice of major changes in methodology, data sources, and statistical techniques." - 1.3 Ethical standards: O - Methodological soundness - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: O - 2.2 Scope: O - 2.3 Classification/sectorization: LNO — "NBRK deposit liabilities to NFRK not identified as belonging to the government sector." - 2.4 Basis for recording: LNO — "Securities held for investment purposes not market valued." - Accuracy and reliability - 3.1 Source data: O - 3.2 Assessment of source data: X - 3.3 Statistical techniques: O - 3.4 Assessment and validation of source data: X - 3.5 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs: X - 3.6 Revision studies: X - Serviceability - 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness: O - 4.2 Consistency: LNO — "Inconsistencies with GFS data on bank financing of the government sector." - 4.3 Revision policy and practice: LNO — "Revisions policy and practice not made public; data on NBRK notes held by banks not revised." - Accessibility - 5.1 Data accessibility: O - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: O - 5.3 Assistance to users: O --- ### VI. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS ### 0. Prerequisites of quality — Legal and institutional environment - Legal responsibilities - Law “On the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan” (No. 2155 of March 30, 1995): NBRK functions include collection of statistical reports on the balance of payments (BOP) and external debt (Article 8, item “1-1”) and compiling the BOP, the international investment position (IIP), and the gross external debt statistics (Article 8, item “r”). - Republic of Kazakhstan Government Resolution No. 71 of January 29, 1999: NBRK is the official body responsible for developing and disseminating BOP statistics. - Reporting frameworks - A list, formats, and timeframes for provision of statistical reporting on the BOP and external debt are established by the NBRK in coordination with the Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan (ASRK). - Article 3 of the Law “On the State Statistics” (No. 98 of May [ ], 1997): all statistical requirements included in the Statistical Work Program are obligatory for all legal entities and individuals; BOP, IIP and external debt reports are included in the annual Statistical Work Program. ### 0.1.2 Data sharing and coordination - NBRK can collect information directly from any public agency involved in data collection for BOP and IIP compilation. - Customs data - Article 41 of the Custom Code (No. 401 of April 5, 2005): the Custom Supervision Committee (CSC) compiles and disseminates official foreign trade statistics and submits to the NBRK, on a monthly basis, foreign trade statistics based on customs declarations, with a breakdown by countries and categories of goods, and quarterly data on exports and imports with a separate breakdown for the CIS region. - Other sources - All other BOP data, including reports of banks, financial and nonfinancial organizations, and external debt transactions from the State Debt Department of the Ministry of Finance (MOF), are collected directly by the NBRK. - Coordination mechanism - Under the Law on Official Statistics, statistical activity is coordinated by the ASRK; all statistical report forms become effective only after ASRK approval and inclusion in the Statistical Work Program, promoting methodological unity and avoiding duplicate respondent reporting. ### 0.1.3 Confidentiality and statistical use - Law on Official Statistics: “individuals and legal entities shall be guaranteed confidentiality of statistical source data and access to the statistical work plan. Statistical source data may be disseminated only with the consent of the individuals and legal entities supplying the information, or anonymously” (Article 13). - Code of Administrative Violations (effective January 30, 2001): Article 383 penalizes unauthorized disclosure of statistics that are commercial secrets. - Law on Banks and Banking: Articles 50 and 54 extend protections to bank statistical reports classified as bank secrets; National Bank employees prohibited from disclosing information obtained in official duties. - Standard ASRK form practice: detachable title-page part with name and address removed after verification to preserve confidentiality. - Internal procedures - BOP and Collection and Processing of Balance of Payments Data Subsystems: data aggregated into consolidated Excel files with no link to source data. - Access authorized and password-protected; access rights determined by report lists and job descriptions. - Access to individual respondent data restricted to staff with need; staff bear personal liability for disclosure. ### 0.1.4 Legal mandate and response enforcement - Article 61 of the Law on the Republic of Kazakhstan National Bank: NBRK has the right to obtain statistical reports and additional information from government agencies, financial and other organizations. - Law on Official Statistics: NBRK rights to obtain statistical information at specified times and without compensation. - Code of Administrative Violations: Article 381 penalizes refusal or failure to submit required government statistical reports and deliberate submission of inaccurate data. - BOP report submission dates set with consideration of respondents’ financial reporting dates. - All BOP report forms include detailed instructions and designate a contact person for assistance to first-time respondents. ### 0.2 Resources - Organizational resources - The NBRK’s Balance of Payments and Currency Regulation Department is organized into two divisions comprising 25 professional staff, all with advanced degrees. - About 60 employees in the 16 regional branches of the NBRK are involved in BOP data collection. - Capacity building - Most staff have participated in IMF-sponsored regional training courses on BOP and external debt statistics, and macroeconomic analysis. - Computing and data flow - Computing resources are adequate and periodically upgraded. - Primary statistical data entry: banks enter directly via the Statistics Subsystem; enterprises’ data entered by regional branches using the BOP Data Collection and Processing System. - Data transmitted to the NBRK server through electronic networks and made available to relevant divisions via electronic subsystems. - Budget - So far, the allocation of budgetary resources has matched the needs for preparing the BOP. ### 0.2.2 Measures for efficient resource use - Three mechanisms: 1. Regular internal auditing procedures checking budget implementation, Subsystem utilization, data collection/storage conditions, and compliance with dissemination schedules including the Statistical Work Program and SDDS requirements. 2. Annual department report to NBRK management used to develop a work plan defining budget, staffing, and other needs. 3. Ongoing cost/benefit reflection to assess compilation costs relative to statistical objectives aimed at reducing reporting burden and processing costs. - Planned improvements and projects - Consider focusing reporting on main respondents (quarterly reporters), with simplified forms and annual reporting for minor respondents. - Current project: develop a monthly BOP in a simplified format based essentially on monthly-available information: customs data and information provided by the financial sector (banking sector and the Ministry of Finance (MOF)). ### 0.3 Relevance - User needs - BOP statistical needs are essentially driven by international requirements and standards. - Coordination for official needs ensured by ASRK via the annual Statistical Work Program. - No regular mechanism for consulting the general public users of BOP statistics; private users contact the NBRK directly through website-referenced addresses. - Suggested options to improve user consultation - The NBRK could consider surveying users of BOP statistics itself, or contracting the ASRK Coordination Department to conduct user surveys. - Alternatively, authorities could consider assigning user-survey functions to the ASRK with commensurate allocation of staff, information technology, and financial resources. ### 0.4 Other quality management - Processes to focus on quality - Quality aims: comply with international methodology and produce timely BOP with adequate coverage. - Quality ensured via continuous interaction between headquarters and regional branches responsible for primary treatment of enterprise data. - On detection of inconsistencies, ambiguities, or mistakes in forms, compilers contact respondents by telephone or in writing and provide methodological advice; face-to-face meetings occur on respondents’ initiative. - The list of respondents is checked against the ASRK Statistical Registry and updated quarterly through enterprise and bank submissions on capital movement operations within currency regulation regimes. - NBRK maintains close contact with the Association of Financiers regarding banks’ reporting obligations. - Monitoring quality of the statistical program - ASRK routinely reviews the quality of the annual statistical program. - NBRK management continuously monitors BOP data quality and periodically initiates measures to bolster quality. - Internal auditing checks compliance with the statistical program. - Planning quality considerations - ASRK ensures conceptual and methodological coordination between government statistics agencies. - Efforts to improve foreign sector statistics included in the 2006−2008 Plan to Improve State Statistics. --- ### 1. Assurances of integrity ### 1.1 Professionalism - Impartiality and independence - Impartiality ensured principally by the Law on Statistics granting independence to the NBRK for statistical activities. - "At no time in the past have revisions been requested by any government official." - Information collected for statistical purposes may not be used by other agencies to achieve other goals. - Staffing and recruitment - Compilers hired via competitive examination and expected to adhere to civil service professional conduct; vacancies are publicly advertised and filled competitively. - Source and method choices - Choices of source data and processing/validation techniques are based solely on statistical considerations to meet standards recommended by the Balance of Payments Manual, fifth edition (BPM5). - Choice of data sources is explained to the public in SDDS metadata, press releases, and seminars. - Commenting on misuse - Compilers actively follow the financial press; when media publish erroneous commentaries, the NBRK issues notices with correct interpretation. - Monthly news conferences are held for the financial press; public questions are answered in detail. *Source: Excerpts from the IMF staff report chapter on Data Quality and Balance of Payments Statistics for Kazakhstan (as provided in the supplied content).* ### 1.2 Transparency ### _cr0856 - 1.2 Transparency ### 1.2 Transparency — access, identification, and advance notice - The NBRK website includes significant links, one of which is via the site of the ASRK to the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB), which presents the current SDDS metadata on official statistics. - The metadata summarize the legal authorities under which BOP statistics are collected, compiled, and disseminated, as well as the significant features of compilation techniques. - The NBRK publishes a special publication, Balance of Payments and External Debt of the Republic of Kazakhstan, which publishes quarterly articles accompanying the standard presentation of the data that give more detailed explanations than the metadata on sources, compilation procedures, adjustments, and reasons for revisions. - There is no governmental access to statistics prior to dissemination. - Data compiled by the NBRK and released to the public are clearly identified by the NBRK’s name and logo; the NBRK requests attribution when its statistics are used or reproduced. - There is no early announcement of the introduction of a new survey or a new statistical technique, but users of BOP statistics are advised at the time of release of new survey data or statistical technique used in compiling statistics; this has been included in the metadata published by the NBRK. - Recommendation: The NBRK should consider early announcement in changes in methodology, source data and statistical technique surveys. The upcoming changes in methodology resulting from the new revised edition of the BPM5 could be an opportunity to introduce this practice. ### 1.3 Ethical standards — staff guidelines and institutional independence - NBRK staff are required to follow behavioral rules for civil servants specified in the Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan “On Civil Service” and the Civil Servant Code. - Management of the NBRK guards its independence from political influence; all employees are expected to support the institution’s objectivity in data collection, compilation, and analysis. - NBRK staff are made aware, in particular through the Corporate Code, of ethical guidelines and professional standards when joining the institution. ### 2. Methodological soundness — concepts, scope, classification, and recording - Concepts and definitions - In general, the BOP of the Republic of Kazakhstan is compiled in concordance with the BPM5. - The legal definition of residency in Kazakhstan is not in accordance with the concept of residency adopted in the BPM5 and the 1993 SNA. - According to the Law on Currency regulation and Currency Control, a local branch of a bank or a nonfinancial enterprise located abroad is considered a nonresident entity. - BOP compilers in Kazakhstan treat all branches of foreign non financial enterprises as residents except for branches providing drilling construction and services. - Banks submit data according to the legal definition, and additional data on the branches of foreign companies. The only exception to the residency criterion at this time concerns local branches of foreign construction and drilling companies. - Recommendation: Local branches of foreign construction and drilling companies should be considered as resident entities for statistical purpose and therefore subject to surveys; this change will result in a significant discrepancy in time series (in particular for the current account) and will need careful management (backward revision of time series, information of users). - Scope - The BOP covers in principle all types of transactions between resident and nonresident units, except local branches of foreign construction and drilling companies noted above. - Nonregistered international transactions of individuals are estimated, with the exception of foreign currency in cash held by individuals which is not subject to any evaluation. - Geographical coverage includes the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan. - Exports and imports of petroleum, natural gas, and related products are covered in trade data statistics using the Commodity Nomenclature for Foreign Economic Activity of CIS Countries classification (TN VED CIS), and can be classified under the nine-digit classification of products. - Oil imported for processing and then reexported is not recorded separately from other exports and imports, although the information is available to the Customs administration. - Oil imported and exported by pipeline is included in trade statistics. - In principle, oil/gas drilling rigs and production platforms entering/leaving the territory for one year or more should not be included in trade statistics as these imports are deemed to be made by nonresident entities; the NBRK believes that until 2002 these entries were recorded in customs statistics as imports. - Other transactions of the oil and gas sector in the service, income and financial accounts are included in the BOP but are not specifically identified, as the NBRK does not compile a BOP of the oil sector. - Classification/sectorization - The classification/sectorization system in Kazakhstan’s BOP presentation is in accordance with the BPM5. - Presentation comprises: (i) current account (goods, services, income, current transfers), (ii) capital account, and (iii) financial account (direct investment, portfolio investment, other investments, reserve assets). - Four sectors are clearly identified: monetary authorities (NBRK and NFRK), government sector (central government and local councils), banks (commercial second tier banks), and other sectors (nonbank financial institutions, enterprises, individuals). - Goods: repairs of goods and goods procured in ports by carriers from enterprise surveys are added to customs data; classification adjustments bring imports to a f.o.b. basis. - Services: includes transportation, travel, and other services (communications, construction, insurance, business services, government services); transportation account estimates earnings of resident truck and air carriers and deducts nonresident carriers and insurers from imports (c.i.f.). - Income: compensation of employees, direct investment income, and other investment income identified separately; reinvestment of earnings in direct investment income is identified. - Current transfers: withholding tax, cash grants to government, contributions to international organizations, pensions paid abroad, workers’ remittances, other transfers. - Capital transfers: main components are migrants’ capital transfers; also technical assistance and humanitarian aid in form of capital goods. - Financial account: divided into direct investment, portfolio investment, other investment, reserve assets; portfolio and other investment further sectorized between NBRK, general government, banks, and other sectors. - Direct investment: distinguishes between direct investment abroad and direct investment in Kazakhstan; recorded following the directional principal. - Portfolio investment: follows BPM5 components; starting from 2003 gross and net payments on derivatives are recorded under this heading in the financial account instead of under portfolio investment within money-market instruments; portfolio investment assets of the NFRK are reflected as held by the monetary authority. - Other investment: covers trade credits, loans (including the use of Fund credit), currency and deposits, other accounts receivable and payable. - Reserve assets: reflect changes in gold, Special Drawing Rights, Reserve Position in the IMF, and foreign exchange holdings (deposits of the NBRK with foreign banks, foreign exchange cash, checks, bills of exchange and securities). - Basis for recording - Market prices are used to value flows and stocks; if market price is not known, a proxy is used. - The BOP is compiled in U.S. dollars. Transactions are converted from other currencies into the unit of account using the exchange rate at the date of the transaction; when the actual date of the transaction is not available, the average exchange rate for the reporting period is used. Data on stocks of assets and liabilities are converted using the exchange rate at the end of the reporting period. - Trade data on petroleum, natural gas, and related products are recorded by customs at market value on the basis of contract of imports or reexports. Transfer prices on exports of petroleum products are monitored by the MOF and are currently considered as a minor issue. - The market value is in principle enforced for oil imported for processing and reexported without change of ownership. There is some doubt that market value is applied for imports without change of ownership of oil/gas drilling rigs and production platforms. The cost of transport by pipeline is separated from the cost of goods. - Transactions in equity capital of direct investment enterprises involved in petroleum, natural gas, and petroleum related are recorded at market value. In general, stocks in equity are recorded at book value and are at market value only when the shares are quoted in the stock markets. - Recording on an accrual basis: income on reserve assets of the NBRK and interest income on commercial bank assets and liabilities are recorded on an accrual basis, as are income on government and enterprise loans and bonds. Reinvested earnings are recorded in the period when they are earned. Dividends on direct and portfolio investment are recorded at the time they are paid (not on an accrual basis). - Grossing/netting: current account items, including insurance, are recorded on a gross basis while financial items are recorded on a net basis separately for assets and liabilities, following BPM5 guidelines. ### 3. Accuracy and reliability — source data, timeliness, and coverage - Source data and data collection programs - BOP compilation is essentially based on two series of data sources: general merchandise data from customs and other transactions from NBRK-conducted surveys. - Three main surveys: transactions in services, compensation of employees, other current and capital transfers of enterprises (form 10-PB); investment income and financial transactions of enterprises (form 1-PB); current and financial transactions of the banking sector (Form 9-PB). In total, 15 different forms are used. - Additional sources include external debt data from the MOF and data from the Border Service used to estimate shuttle trade. - Transportation services: freight estimated from foreign trade statistics and yearly NBRK surveys and reports of transportation companies; passenger and other transportation services from transportation companies. - Travel: estimated from Border Service data and special surveys. - Insurance, construction, communications and other services: obtained from enterprise reports and banks. - Expenses of Kazakhstan foreign representations: based on data from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; NBRK estimates expenditures of foreign representations located in Kazakhstan. - Ministry of Economy and Budget Planning provides data on services associated with technical assistance. - Compensation of employees: data on compensation of nonresident employees from enterprise surveys; data on resident and nonresident workers of international organizations and foreign diplomatic representations, and residents working abroad, are estimated. - Investment income: NBRK quarterly surveys from enterprises, banks, and security market intermediaries provide most information; NBRK and NFRK records provide income of those funds; MOF provides information on interest on public and public guaranteed debt. - Current transfers: technical assistance data from Ministry of Economy and Budget Planning; humanitarian aid from customs statistics; other transfers from government institutions, enterprises and banks. - Capital account: transfers provided via statistical reporting and customs statistics; numbers of migrants provided by the ASRK. - Direct investment: sources include NBRK enterprise quarterly surveys, quarterly reports by commercial banks, enterprise reports on capital movement operations within currency regulation regimes, and MOF information on nonresident participations in privatization. - Portfolio investment: NBRK quarterly surveys from enterprises, banks, security market intermediaries and Central Depository; MOF provides public debt related portfolio information; National Fund transactions from central bank records. - Financial derivatives: quarterly surveys on external position of commercial banks and enterprises and NBRK records; supplemented by data submitted under currency regulation regimes. - Other investment: enterprise quarterly survey, quarterly reports by commercial banks, MOF information on external assets and liabilities of government sector; supplemented by data from currency regulation regimes. - Reserves: NBRK records on transactions in foreign assets. - The Customs administration is the only data source on exports and imports of petroleum, natural gas, and related products. - All other BOP transactions (services, income, direct and other financial transactions), including those associated with pipelines, are directly collected by the NBRK as part of statistical reporting by enterprises. - Quality of source data - Source data, essentially based on direct reporting to the NBRK, correctly approximate the desired definitions, classifications, valuations, and time of recording. - Source data are reported in a timely manner. Timeliness is facilitated by report forms being sent to the NBRK only after enterprises have fulfilled their own reporting obligations for taxation purposes. - Reporting deadlines: banks and other financial institutions submit the quarterly BOP report on the 20th day after the end of the reporting period; other organizations submit on the 30th day (international services report forms) and on the 40th day after the end of the reporting period (financial assets and liabilities report form)—that is, after the financial report submission dates. *Source: _cr0856 - 1.2 Transparency* ### 3.2 Assessment of source data ### _cr0856 - 3.2 Assessment of source data ### Assessment of source data and verification - Source data (censuses, sample surveys, administrative records) are routinely assessed for coverage, sample error, response error, and nonsampling error; results are monitored and made available to guide statistical processes. - Coverage: - Above 7000 enterprises are surveyed quarterly, which should ensure a very good coverage of BOP statistics. - The population of enterprises surveyed is updated on a regular basis. - Verification and validation: - Verification includes consistency checks within survey forms and linking data at subsequent levels. - Accuracy checks require that stock at end-period = beginning-period stock + transactions + other changes in valuation and reclassification. - Banks report in electronic format, eliminating data entry errors at the NBRK and facilitating electronic checking, validation and editing. - High-value or unusual transactions are investigated and confirmed with respondents. - Preliminary checking and validation are performed at NBRK regional branches; additional consistency checks are performed at NBRK headquarters in Almaty, including comparisons with banking transactions submitted under the Common Classification of Payments System and with bank balance sheets and bank supervision reports—discrepancies are investigated. - Use of surveys: - Annual NBRK surveys estimate parameters for c.i.f. to f.o.b. adjustments. - Occasional surveys adjust coverage to include shuttle trade and gather business/accounting practice information for firms transacting with nonresidents. - Revisions to reporting: - When revisions of published BOP reports are necessary, source data are analyzed and report forms revised and/or the pool of respondents enlarged/altered appropriately. ### Statistical techniques (compilation, adjustments, transformations) - Automated checks: - When primary data are entered in electronic reporting subsystems, codes and data types are automatically checked; built-in logical controls check form completeness. - Subsystem checks bank reports against bank balance sheets and supervisory reports. - Reconciliation design: - Most forms require reconciliation of transactions during the reporting period with opening and closing balances. - Reports by major firms may be checked against bank-submitted data; primary data are checked against registration/notification data for capital movement operations within currency regulation regimes. - Specific techniques by account: - Goods: - Customs statistics collected at c.i.f. valuation; imports adjusted to f.o.b. using coefficients estimated by NBRK from foreign trade statistics and yearly surveys. - Shuttle trade adjustment: based on number of “shuttle traders” and average value per trader; number estimated from Border Service traveler counts; average value determined from special surveys in Kazakhstan. - Services: - Part of c.i.f.-f.o.b. adjustment corresponding to nonresident carriers and insurers added to freight and insurance services. - Travel credits/debits estimated from number of travelers, average length of stay, and average daily expenditure (from special surveys and standard travel allowances). - Income: - Salaries of residents working abroad estimated on average compensation basis; number of residents working abroad from the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection. - Compensation of nonresident employees relies solely on company surveys, which do not cover nonresident workers of border countries; NBRK is working on solutions to eliminate this coverage gap. - Capital account: - Main entries: value of assets moved by migrants; number of migrants and average migrating family size provided by the ASRK; asset values based on regional average ownership ratios and regional average prices recorded by NBRK branches. - Financial account: - No statistical technique currently used to estimate foreign currency held by residents. - Recent NBRK investigations suggest correlation between activity of foreign exchange courtiers and variation in the errors and omissions item of the BOP. - Assessment: - Statistical techniques are used mainly to improve goods coverage, calculate freight and insurance adjustments, and estimate travel, compensation of employees, and migrant transfers; techniques used appear to be adequate. ### Assessment and validation of intermediate results and statistical outputs - Validation: - Intermediate results are validated against other information where applicable. - Bank data for monetary statistics are reconciled with bank-reported BOP transactions. - Registration and notification data for capital movement operations provide additional information to ensure accurate classification and to identify unrecorded foreign assets/liabilities. - Investigation of discrepancies: - Any statistical discrepancies or inconsistencies in intermediate results are investigated by BOP division staff. - NBRK works with compilers in the central bank of the Russian Federation to reconcile trade flows and analyze trade content to reveal discrepancy sources. - NBRK uses statistics from other central banks of partner countries to better assess unrecorded transactions. ### Revision studies and revision policy - Revision practice: - Revisions are introduced twice a year, in October and April. - Revisions cover the two preceding years; full revised BOP series are published for these two years. - Particularly for significant revisions, full explanations of underlying reasons are published in The Balance of Payments and External Debt of the Republic of Kazakhstan. - Gaps in revision analysis: - Although BOP statistics are constantly revised and reasons analyzed, no studies assess initial estimates against revised or final estimates over a given period. - No studies of long-term trends in the revision pattern are carried out. - Policy on identification: - Users are alerted that initially published data are subject to revision for up to two years. - Revised data are disseminated with same level of detail. - The preliminary status is not clearly identified in dissemination; no distinction is made between preliminary, revised and final data. - Recommendation explicitly stated: - The NBRK should include in its publications information on the revision status of the data disseminated: initial (or preliminary), revised and final. ### Serviceability: periodicity, timeliness, and consistency - Periodicity and timeliness: - BOP statistics are disseminated quarterly, conforming to SDDS requirements. - Quarterly BOP statistics are disseminated within one quarter after the end of the reference period, conforming to SDDS requirements. - Consistency within and across datasets: - Series are sufficiently detailed to check internal consistency. - Data available from 1995 compiled on BPM5 throughout this period. - Gaps exist from the 1999 shift in responsibility for collecting enterprise data from ASRK to NBRK; NBRK efforts to extend business register coverage result in revisions carried backwards for up to two years. - Quarterly bulletin includes analytic presentation, notes on methodology, and explanations of reasons for revision. - Reconciliation with other frameworks: - Same source data for BOP and IIP compilation ensures full correspondence between financial flows and stocks; IIP report published in form allowing reconciliation of transactions with nontransactional valuation changes. - Differences exist between BOP and (i) external debt statistics compiled by the MOF, and (ii) national accounts. - External debt specifics: - General government external debt (compiled by MOF and added by NBRK to gross external debt) encompasses total volume of Eurobonds issued on the international market, including portion held by residents (which currently represents about 90 percent of the total issue, held by commercial banks and pension funds). - NBRK excludes from external debt statistics the portion of money market instruments issued by the NBRK acquired by nonresidents on the secondary market. - As a result, gross external debt statistics differ from positions on corresponding liabilities recorded in the IIP. - Goods trade: - BOP exports and imports consistent with merchandise trade data after adjustments (c.i.f. to f.o.b., and upward adjustments for shuttle trade). - National accounts discrepancy: - ASRK treats branches of foreign companies in construction and drilling as resident entities, whereas NBRK treats their activities as imports of construction services in the BOP; this causes a statistical discrepancy in GDP by production vs expenditure approaches. - Recommendation explicitly stated: - The MOF and the NBRK should exclude from external debt statistics the part of the Eurobond issue held by residents, and include money market instruments issued by the NBRK on the domestic market that are currently held by nonresidents, to align with the IIP. ### Accessibility, metadata, and user assistance - Presentation and documentation: - BOP presentation includes all components of the BPM5 standard presentation; analytic presentation and analytic tables are published in The Balance of Payments and External Debt of the Republic of Kazakhstan. - Published data are accompanied by analytical commentary and detailed methodological commentary, including source data descriptions. - Oil and gas: - NBRK does not compile a BOP of the oil sector, but some specific indicators are available. - Oil and gas trade data are identified separately in additional analytical tables; pipeline transportation receipts/payments indicated in service account. - Financial accounts distinguish FDI in the country and direct investment abroad by oil and gas sector importance; assets/liabilities of oil and gas companies are distinguished in analytical tables. - Assets of the NFRK, included in monetary authorities sector, are clearly distinguished from other NBRK assets. - Dissemination media and formats: - Data released on NBRK’s internet website (in Kazakh, Russian and English) with standard (detailed) and analytic (short) presentations. - Hard-copy BOP publications available in four forms: press release; Monthly Statistical Bulletin; Quarterly The Balance of Payments and External Debt of the Republic of Kazakhstan (in Kazakh and Russian) and the Statistical Bulletin (in Kazakh, Russian and English); Annual Report (in Kazakh, Russian and English). - The press release is free of charge; the other three publications are available for a fee. - Release schedule and access: - An advance release calendar gives precise release dates for the next twelve months and is disseminated on the NBRK’s internet website. - Data are released simultaneously on the NBRK’s internet website in three languages. - Detailed quarterly time-series tables are published in The Balance of Payments and External Debt of the Republic of Kazakhstan. - Additional data series not containing confidential information are provided upon request. - Metadata and user assistance: - Methodological notes are disseminated on the NBRK’s website; methodology details are published in The Balance of Payments and External Debt of the Republic of Kazakhstan. - Two levels of detail are made available to the public: detailed (standard) and short (analytical). - Contact points for each subject field are publicized in NBRK publications and website. - A list of NBRK publications and charges is available from NBRK publishers, but the NBRK does not disseminate a catalog of publications. *Source: _cr0856 - 3.2 Assessment of source data* ### 1.2 Transparency ### 1.2 Transparency ### Findings - 1.2 Transparency: X - "No advance notice is given to users for major changes in the methodology, data sources, and statistical techniques." - 1.3 Ethical standards: X - Methodological soundness - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: X — "The residence criterion does not conform to international accepted standards for local branches of foreign firms (e.g., construction and drilling services)." - 2.2 Scope: X - 2.3 Classification/sectorization: X - 2.4 Basis for recording: X - Accuracy and reliability - 3.1 Source data: X - 3.2 Assessment of source data: X - 3.3 Statistical techniques: X - 3.4 Assessment and validation of source data: X - 3.5 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs: X - 3.6 Revision studies: X - Serviceability - 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness: X - 4.2 Consistency: X — "BOP statistics are not consistent with national accounts (based on the residence of local branches of foreign firms providing construction and drilling services) and external debt statistics (treatment of sovereign Eurobonds and money market instruments issued by the NBRK)." - 4.3 Revision policy and practice: X - Accessibility - 5.1 Data accessibility: X - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: X - 5.3 Assistance to users: X ### Implications and analysis - Lack of advance notice for major methodological changes impairs the Transparency indicator and contravenes DQAF indicator 1.2.4: "Advance notice is given of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques." - The residence criterion divergence affects comparability with international standards and contributes to inconsistencies between BOP statistics and national accounts. - Inconsistencies in treatment of sovereign Eurobonds and money market instruments issued by the NBRK cause BOP statistics to be "not consistent with national accounts ... and external debt statistics." ### SDDS-prescribed practices (as stated in the source) - Data dimension (coverage, periodicity, and timeliness) - "the dissemination of 18 data categories, including component detail, covering the four main sectors (real, fiscal, financial, and external) of the economy, with prescribed periodicity and timeliness." - Access dimension - "the dissemination of advance release calendars providing at least one-quarter advance notice of approximate release dates, and at least a one-week advance notice of the precise release dates; and" - "the simultaneous release of data to all users." - Integrity dimension - "the dissemination of the terms and conditions under which official statistics are produced and disseminated;" - "the identification of internal government access to data before release;" - "the identification of ministerial commentary on the occasion of statistical release; and" - "the provision of information about revision and advance notice of major changes in methodology." - Quality dimension - "the dissemination of documentation on statistical methodology and sources used in preparing statistics; and" - "dissemination of component detail and/or additional data series that make possible cross-checks and checks of reasonableness." - SDDS subscribers are required to: - "post descriptions of their data dissemination practices (metadata) on the IMF’s DSBB. Summary methodologies, which describe data compilation practices in some detail, are also disseminated on the DSBB; and" - "maintain an internet website, referred to as the National Summary Data Page (NSDP), which contains the actual data described in the metadata and to which the DSBB is electronically linked." - "The IMF staff is monitoring observance of the standard through NSDPs maintained on the internet. Monitoring is limited to the coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of the data and to the dissemination of advance release calendars." ### Relevant DQAF indicators (July 2003 Framework) cited in the source - Prerequisites of quality - 0.1.1–0.1.4: legal and institutional environment, confidentiality, and statistical reporting mandate - 0.2.1–0.2.2: resources and efficiency measures - 0.3.1: monitoring relevance and utility of statistics - 0.4.1–0.4.3: processes to focus on and monitor quality - Assurances of integrity - 1.1.1–1.1.3: professionalism and safeguarding objectivity - 1.2.1–1.2.4: transparency elements including "Advance notice is given of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques." - 1.3.1: ethical standards and staff guidelines - Methodological soundness - 2.1.1: adherence to internationally accepted standards - 2.2.1–2.3.1: scope and classification conformity - 2.4.1–2.4.3: basis for recording (market prices, accrual basis, grossing/netting procedures) - Accuracy and reliability - 3.1.1–3.1.3: source data adequacy and timeliness - 3.2.1: routine assessment of source data - 3.3.1–3.3.2: use of sound statistical techniques and procedures - 3.4.1–3.4.3: validation of intermediate and final outputs and investigation of discrepancies - 3.5.1: routine studies and analyses of revisions - Serviceability - 4.1.1–4.1.2: periodicity and timeliness follow dissemination standards - 4.2.1–4.2.3: internal consistency and reconcilability over time and with other datasets - 4.3.1–4.3.3: transparent revision schedules and publication of revision analyses - Accessibility - 5.1.1–5.1.5: presentation, dissemination formats, preannounced schedules, impartial availability, and access upon request - 5.2.1–5.2.2: metadata documentation and audience-appropriate detail - 5.3.1–5.3.2: publicized contact points and catalogs of services *Source: _cr0856 - 1.2 Transparency* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2008/_cr0856.pdf_