## 1. Data Quality Assessment Framework—Summary Results (_cr09286) ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [1. Data Quality Assessment Framework—Summary Results (_cr09286)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2009/_cr09286.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2009/_cr09286.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2009/_cr09286.pdf.json) --- ### I. OVERALL ASSESSMENT — Principal findings - Macroeconomic statistics are generally of high quality and broadly conform to international standards; substantial improvement since the 2001 data ROSC. - Remaining scope for improvement includes: - accuracy and reliability of the national accounts and the government finance statistics (GFS); - coverage of the consumer and producer price indices (CPI, PPI); - timeliness of the accounts of the banking sector; and - ease of access to documentation for fiscal and monetary data. - Many remedial actions are underway or envisaged in the Official Statistics Program 2007-11 following the 2005 Statistics Law (No. 5429). ### Institutional and legal framework - Statistics Law of Turkey (No. 5429) of November 2005: - assigned compilation responsibilities for a broad range of official data, including macroeconomic statistics; - endowed Turkstat with a lead role and enshrined principles to sustain transparency and integrity; - created the Statistical Council and devices to guide and monitor progress (Official Statistics Program (OSP) and Strategic Plan). - GFS institutional complexity: - MOF compiles general government data; Treasury compiles financing and debt; OSP assigns SPO responsibility for consolidated public sector operations. - CBRT: - 1970 Law amended in 2001 strengthened independence; CBRT adopted inflation targeting regime in early 2006; - data production assigned to a department dedicated exclusively to statistics. ### Methodological and technical progress - National accounts: - conform to 1995 ESA; use annual chain volume measures; - work underway to extend scope to sequence of accounts, annual supply and use tables, and institutional sector accounts. - BOP: - follows BPM5 more closely; some transactions still recorded on a cash basis. - MFS: - adhere to MFSM; SRFs submitted to STA since November 2005. - GFS: - in transition toward GFSM 2001; MOF compiling central government GFSM 2001-consistent data; local government and social security not yet fully incorporated. - CPI and PPI: - converted to annual chain indices; - CPI lacks owner-occupied housing component; - PPI compiled only by product (not by economic activity); scope could expand to exports and services. ### Data sources, accuracy, and reliability - BOP accuracy improved; CBRT progressed from banking records to substantial use of surveys. - National accounts needs: - incorporation of annual collections; - independent household consumption estimates; - quarterly inventory change data; - enhanced estimates for the non-observed economy. - GFS main challenge: effective use of say2000i centralized automated information system and transformation of source data with appropriate adjustments for general government statistics. - MFS source data high quality but extensive reporting requirements cause long lags (banks’ data often available only after 23 business days). - Revision studies seldom prepared and generally not published for some datasets. ### Serviceability and accessibility - Serviceability very good in most cases: - CBRT data service excellent; weekly periodicity for some MFS; - BOP timeliness and periodicity exceed SDDS prescriptions; - annual IIP dissemination starting in 2002 and monthly IIP indicators published since April 2008. - Gaps: - no seasonally adjusted national accounts or BOP estimates; - need more detail (quarterly income components of GDP, GDP per capita, GDP per person employed, implicit price deflators); - insufficient guidance on multiple fiscal aggregates (MOF central/local, SPO consolidated). - Positive practices: - detailed data and good metadata readily available in various formats; - statistics disseminated according to a pre-announced calendar; - unpublished nonconfidential data generally made available on request; - weekly monetary data provided with ample detail (including in “the framework of the Stand-By-Agreement with the Fund”). ### Observance of the SDDS - Turkey subscribed to SDDS on August 8, 1996; started posting metadata on IMF’s DSBB on July 20, 2001. - Turkey is in observance of the SDDS, meeting coverage, periodicity, timeliness, and advance release calendar specifications; exceeds specifications in some areas. - Flexibility option used for timeliness of analytical accounts of the banking sector. - Summary methodological statements for all datasets are posted on DSBB. ### IMF DQAF-based conclusions (summary) - Prerequisites and assurances of integrity: Turkstat’s new law and Statistical Council promote OSP objectives; MOF/Treasury/SPO environment complex but supportive; CBRT legal amendments support effective data production. - Methodological foundations generally sound and improved since 2001 ROSC. - Remaining challenges in national accounts, price statistics, and GFS appear manageable with remedial action planned or underway. - MFS and BOP underpinned by international best practice though some BOP transactions remain on cash basis and asset classification in MFS needs further improvement. --- ### User survey and interviews — summary findings - Survey responses and interviews: "13 survey responses and six additional interviews". - Users confirmed prior assessments from 2001 ROSC and Turkstat 2004 User Satisfaction Survey. - Overall sentiment: - "Overall satisfaction with the macroeconomic statistics"; - requests for "more detail, better timeliness, and more robust inter-dataset consistency". - Relative satisfaction by dataset: - Higher satisfaction: "price, monetary, and balance of payments statistics". - Greater scope for improvement: "national accounts (coverage and detail) and GFS (local governments and social security funds, metadata)". - Frequency and timeliness preferences: - Interest in more frequency for GFS and better timeliness for national accounts, BOP, and GFS. - Users willing to accept more revisions if under a clear revisions policy. - Accessibility and metadata: - Users aware of advance release calendars except for GFS; - all users obtained data via websites; - "virtually all were satisfied with data accessibility, except for a fifth of the users of the national accounts"; - need for better access to metadata and improved user support. ### Users’ survey selected numeric results - Total responses: 13 survey responses. - Regular use (number of respondents): National accounts 13; Prices 13; GFS 11; Monetary 12; BOP 11. - Overall quality rating (1 poor to 5 excellent): NA = 3.50; Prices = 4.25; GFS = 3.10; Monetary = 4.10; BOP = 4.18. ### DQAF — Table 1 highlights (selected assessments) - 0. Prerequisites of quality: 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: O across all datasets. - 1. Assurances of integrity: 1.1 Professionalism: O across all datasets. - 2. Methodological soundness: 2.1 Concepts and definitions: O for most datasets; LO for Producer Price Index. - 3. Accuracy and reliability: 3.1 Source data: LO for National Accounts; O for others. - 4. Serviceability: 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness: LO for Monetary Statistics. - 5. Accessibility: 5.1 Data accessibility: LO for National Accounts and GFS; O for CPI, PPI, BOP, Monetary. --- ### Agency-specific assessments — Turkstat (selected) - Turkstat compiles national accounts, CPI, PPI; strengthened by Statistics Law (No. 5429 of November 2005). - Resources: "Over 50 percent of staff are permanent and well-qualified"; ratio of personal computers to staff slightly exceeds unity. - Quality management: Data Quality Control Unit; Strategic Plan 2007-2011; user surveys and web-based user survey. - Professionalism/transparency: President of Turkstat reports to Prime Minister, appointed to renewable five-year term with two-term limit; Article 4 and Article 13 of Statistics Law require methods and confidentiality to be public and observed. ### Turkstat — National Accounts (selected) - Methodological soundness: compiled according to 1995 ESA; GDP series 1998–2007 published; quarterly GDP series fully revised. - Scope gaps: sequence of accounts for total economy not produced; supply and use tables produced only for benchmark years; plans to produce annual SUT for 2002 onwards. - Source data/timeliness: lack of timeliness major issue for annual business survey; no quarterly enterprise collections for capital formation or inventory changes. - Revisions: no traditional revision studies; periodicity and timeliness meet SDDS; no seasonally adjusted quarterly estimates. - Accessibility: release schedule preannounced; metadata on Turkstat website and IMF DSBB; detailed sources and methods publication (1994) being updated. ### Turkstat — CPI (selected) - Concepts/scope: follow 1993 SNA and CPI Manual; index covers monetary expenditures of resident households; weights exclude owner-occupied housing. - Data collection: HBS continuous covering approximately 25,000 private households; about 360,000 prices collected monthly from 25,000 outlets in 26 regions and 81 cities. - Timeliness: CPI published on the third business day after the reference month; published CPI is final when released (no revisions). - Accessibility: full historical data and metadata on Turkstat website; press release includes analysis and tables. ### Turkstat — PPI (selected) - Concepts/scope: follows PPI Manual though compiled only by product and not by economic activity; covers agriculture, fishing, mining, manufacturing and electricity, gas and water production; does not cover exports and services. - Data collection: approximately 13,200 monthly price quotations for 756 items from 1,725 firms; coverage ~70-80 percent of nationwide production. - Timeliness: PPI published on the third business day after the reference month; PPI final when released. ### MOF / Treasury / SPO — Government Finance Statistics (selected) - Methodological soundness: budgetary data broadly consistent with GFSM 1986; MOF started implementing ESA95 and GFSM 2001 including accrual recording. - Scope gaps: MOF compiling central government GFSM 2001 data; local governments and social security institutions not yet fully incorporated for general government. - Source systems: say2000i centralized accounting system enhances feasibility of higher frequency compilation. - Publication issues: separate central and local government datasets published by MOF risk misinterpretation (double-counting); English MOF website less comprehensive than Turkish version. - Timeliness: MOF monthly budgetary central government data published within 15 days after reference period; Treasury monthly central government debt published within three weeks. ### CBRT — Monetary and Balance of Payments (selected) - Legal framework: CBRT Law of 1970 (Law No. 1211) amended by Law No. 4651 of April 2001; Article 43 authorizes CBRT to request/collect statistical information and protects confidentiality. - BOP sources: trade data (Turkstat), banks’ foreign exchange records, CBRT and Turkstat surveys (shuttle trade, travel, inward FDI, portfolio assets, services), administrative data. - MFS: concepts broadly consistent with MFSM; SRFs compiled and submitted since November 2005; monthly monetary survey disseminated; some deviations (accrued interest not included in published instrument values; monetary gold revalued quarterly). - Timeliness/serviceability: - Monthly BOP data published with six weeks timeliness (exceed SDDS prescriptions). - CBRT disseminates annual IIP with six months timeliness and monthly IIP indicators with seven weeks timeliness (since April 2008). - Analytical accounts of banking sector published with a flexibility option: timeliness NLT two months (with year-end exceptions: data for February NLT three months; December and January NLT four months). --- ### Staff recommendations — cross-cutting (selected) - Conduct regular inter-agency consultation to verify consistency among macroeconomic datasets (e.g., reconcile fiscal data with monetary data and national accounts estimates of public consumption and investment). - Give greater priority to periodic conduct of revision studies. ### National accounts — staff recommendations (high priority) - Integrate a regular annual estimation process into the extrapolation system; construct annual supply and use tables in current and constant prices using annual structural business survey and other sources. - Compile a more independent measure of household final consumption expenditure annually and quarterly using business surveys, new quarterly service industry collection, and other sources. - Collect quarterly information on changes in inventories for major stock-holding industries. - Produce results from the annual structural business survey more timely. - Compile and publish the sequence of accounts for the total economy annually and preferably quarterly. - Seasonally adjust all published quarterly national accounts estimates. ### Prices — CPI and PPI (high priority) - CPI: estimate durable goods weights using households’ net purchases; expand CPI coverage to include housing costs for owner-occupants (e.g., separate index using rental equivalence). - PPI: expedite planned expansion to compile export indices; include PPI by economic activity in medium-term plans; expand coverage to services (begin with public transportation and communication). ### Government Finance Statistics (high priority) - Disseminate (MOF, Treasury, SPO) a clear roadmap on the nature and inter-relationships of published fiscal datasets; provide hyperlinks and guidance. - Compile and disseminate consolidated accounts of the general government (MOF); expedite use of available accrual source data to produce timely estimates for local governments and social security entities. - Intensify MOF/Treasury/SPO collaboration to implement a single chart of accounts and uniform economic and functional classifications across all government levels. ### Balance of Payments — staff recommendations (high priority) - Improve coverage of noncash disbursements for government loans and nonbank external deposit assets; record bonds issued abroad held by residents, financial derivatives, and equity/debt security assets more completely; further develop quarterly FDI and services surveys. - Extend market valuation to all tradable debt instruments and record investment income on an accrual basis in BOP and external debt in IIP. - Compile and publish detailed BOP/IIP reconciliation tables (publish summary reconciliation table in 2009). - Allocate more staff resources to BOP and IIP to expand surveys and implement BPM6. ### Monetary statistics — staff recommendations (high priority) - Bring timeliness of the monetary survey and analytical accounts of the banking sector in line with SDDS by streamlining reporting system with BRSA without loss of necessary detail. - Identify and report financial derivatives separately in sectoral accounts. - Address discrepancies in inter-bank data. --- ### Authorities’ response — summary of ongoing work and planned improvements (dated September 3, 2009) - National accounts: - National Accounts Group: 7 teams and 53 staff (Production Approach-10; Expenditure Approach-5; Income Approach-4; Annual Accounts (SUT)-9; Institutional Sector Accounts-15; Regional Accounts-5; Methodology Team-5). - Major revision released March 2008; GDP by income approach to be published in 2009. - New quarterly survey of service industries: first results published December 2008 including four years of data. - Seasonal Adjustments Working Group established; draft GNI inventory completed. - Price statistics: - New chained CPI calculated in 2009; new CPI covers owner-occupied housing, commodities produced by households for own consumption, and in-kind payments; market basket: 449 items and 845 sub-items (previous: 454 items and 851 sub-items); uses 2005-2006-2007 HBS. - PPI to include export and services components under OSP; PPI by economic activity not foreseen in near term. - GFS: - “Communiqué on General Public Sector Statistics” published February 04, 2009 to align classification with GFSM 2001. - Expenditure and revenue data of social security institutions for 2006-2008 on a cash basis received; preparation of general government tables for EUROSTAT begun. - BOP/IIP: - CBRT added contact information, revision policy, and announcements on methodological changes (mid-November 2008). - Ongoing studies and working groups to address coverage gaps (bonds issued abroad held by residents, financial derivatives, equity/debt security assets, noncash disbursements). - Plan to prepare detailed reconciliation tables internally and disseminate annual summary reconciliation table; comprehensive IIP metadata to be posted. - Quarterly IIP dissemination depends on conducting quarterly inward FDI survey (constrained by staff). - Monetary statistics: - Contact information and methodology added to CBRT website (mid-December 2008). - Cooperation with BRSA planned to improve timeliness despite branch banking reporting constraints (23 business days reporting deadline). - Working group to identify and report financial derivatives in sectoral accounts in 2009. - MMFs issuing “Type B Liquid Funds” to be separately identified in the Institutional Sector List in 2009. --- ### Appendix I — Selected SDDS periodicity and timeliness (exact entries preserved) - National accounts: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = Q; Periodicity (Turkey) = Q; Periodicity detail = 1 Q; Timeliness = NLT 3 M - Production index: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = M; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Periodicity detail = 6 W (1 M); Timeliness = NLT 6 W - Employment: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = Q; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Periodicity detail = 1 Q; Timeliness = NLT 80 D - Consumer prices: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity = M; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Periodicity detail = 1 M; Timeliness = 3 D - Producer prices: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity = M; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Periodicity detail = 1 M; Timeliness = 3 D - Central government operations: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity = M; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Periodicity detail = 1 M; Timeliness = 1 M - Analytical accounts of the banking sector: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = M; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Periodicity detail = 1 M; Timeliness = NLT 2 M (flexibility option; December/January/February exceptions: data for February NLT three months and for December and January NLT four months) - Balance of payments: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = Q; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Periodicity detail = 1 Q; Timeliness = 6 W - Official reserve assets: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = M (W); Periodicity (Turkey) = W; Periodicity detail = 1 W; Timeliness = 6 D - International investment position: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = A (Q); Periodicity (Turkey) = A; Periodicity detail = 3 Q (1 Q); Timeliness = 2 Q --- *IMF staff summary contained in the PDF chapter "1. Data Quality Assessment Framework—Summary Results."* ### 1. Data Quality Assessment Framework—Summary Results ...............................................9 ### 1. Data Quality Assessment Framework—Summary Results ### I. OVERALL ASSESSMENT — Principal findings - The macroeconomic statistics are generally of high quality, broadly conforming to international standards for compilation and dissemination, and reflecting considerable improvement since the 2001 data ROSC. - Remaining scope for improvement includes: - accuracy and reliability of the national accounts and the government finance statistics (GFS); - coverage of the consumer and producer price indices (CPI, PPI); - timeliness of the accounts of the banking sector; and - ease of access to documentation for fiscal and monetary data. - Many needed actions are already underway or envisaged in the Official Statistics Program 2007-11, following the new statistics legislation enacted in 2005. ### Institutional and legal framework - The Statistics Law of Turkey (No. 5429) of November 2005: - assigned compilation responsibilities for a broad range of official data, including macroeconomic statistics; - endowed the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat) with a lead role and enshrined principles to sustain transparency and integrity; - created a coordinating mechanism (the Statistical Council) and devices to guide and monitor progress (the Official Statistics Program (OSP) and the Strategic Plan). - Turkstat coordinates planning for data improvement within a disciplined timetable and its boards on Data Quality Control and Publication and Dissemination promote systematic best practices. - The legal and institutional environment for GFS compilation is complex but supportive: - MOF has responsibility for compiling data on the general government; - Treasury is responsible for data on financing and debt; - OSP assigns SPO responsibility for consolidated operations of the public sector. - The 1970 Law of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) was amended in 2001 to strengthen independence; the 2005 Statistics Law further buttressed the CBRT’s effective data production framework. - The CBRT adopted an inflation targeting regime in early 2006. - Data production is assigned to a department dedicated exclusively to statistics. - Resources are commensurate with current tasks, though some supplementation may be needed for ambitious plans. ### Methodological and technical progress - National accounts: - now conform to 1995 European System of Accounts (1995 ESA); - compilation uses annual chain volume measures; - work is underway to extend scope to sequence of accounts for the total economy, annual supply and use tables, and institutional sector accounts. - Balance of payments (BOP): - more closely observes the 5th Edition of the Balance of Payments Manual (BPM5); - some transactions continue to be recorded on a cash basis. - Monetary and financial statistics (MFS) adhere to the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM). - Government finance statistics (GFS) are in transition toward GFSM 2001: - MOF has begun compiling GFSM 2001-consistent data for the central government; - local government units and social security institutions have yet to be fully incorporated for general government data. - CPI and PPI: - converted to annual chain indices; - CPI lacks a component to represent owner-occupied housing; - PPI is compiled only by product (not by economic activity); scope could be expanded to include exports and services. ### Data sources, accuracy, and reliability - Improvements in BOP accuracy and reliability in recent years; CBRT has progressed from heavy reliance on banking records to substantial use of surveys. - National accounts would benefit from: - incorporation of data from annual collections; - development of independent estimates of household consumption; - collection of quarterly information on inventory changes; - further enhancement of estimates for the non-observed economy. - GFS main challenge: effective use of timely data from the centralized automated say 2000i information system that records financial transactions of the central government; transforming these source data with appropriate adjustments would facilitate compilation of general government statistics. - MFS source data are of high quality, but extensive and rigorous reporting requirements on banks give rise to a long lag in data submission to the CBRT. - Revision studies are seldom prepared and generally not published for some datasets. ### Serviceability and accessibility - Serviceability is very good in most cases: - CBRT data service is excellent, with weekly periodicity for the MFS; - timeliness and periodicity of the BOP statistics exceed SDDS prescriptions; - reconciliation of BOP data with stocks aided by annual IIP dissemination starting in 2002 and monthly IIP indicators published since April 2008. - Publication of data on depository corporations falls short of SDDS timeliness but an entitled flexibility option is applied. - Macroeconomic data are consistent within datasets and over time, but most compiling units make insufficient efforts to ensure inter-dataset consistency. - Gaps in dissemination and detail: - no seasonally adjusted national accounts or BOP estimates; - need for more detail such as quarterly income components of GDP, GDP per capita, GDP per person employed, and implicit price deflators; - insufficient guidance to GFS users on the various aggregates produced for similar concepts (MOF disseminates separate central and local government datasets; SPO publishes consolidated general government and public sector data). - Positive dissemination practices: - detailed data and good metadata readily available in various formats; - statistics disseminated according to a pre-announced calendar; - unpublished nonconfidential data generally made available upon request; - weekly monetary data provided with ample detail and multiple formats (including in “the framework of the Stand-By-Agreement with the Fund”). ### Observance of the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) - Turkey subscribed to the SDDS on August 8, 1996 and started posting metadata on the IMF’s DSBB on July 20, 2001. - Turkey is in observance of the SDDS, meeting specifications for coverage, periodicity, timeliness, and dissemination of advance release calendars, and exceeding specifications in some areas. - Flexibility options used for the timeliness of analytical accounts of the banking sector. - Summary up-to-date methodological statements for all datasets are posted on the DSBB. - Appendix I provides an overview of dissemination practices compared with the SDDS. ### IMF DQAF-based conclusions (summary) - Prerequisites of quality and assurances of integrity: - Turkstat’s activities are supported by the new law and the Statistical Council, promoting priority to OSP objectives; - MOF, Treasury, and SPO environment is complex but supportive; intensified collaboration could expedite an integrated fiscal data compilation approach; - CBRT’s legal amendments and statistical arrangements support effective data production, transparency, and integrity. - Methodological foundations are generally sound and substantially improved since the 2001 ROSC. - Remaining challenges in national accounts, price statistics, and GFS appear manageable with remedial action already planned or underway in most cases. - Both MFS and BOP are underpinned by international best practice, though some BOP transactions remain on a cash basis and asset classification in MFS needs further improvement. ### Structure of report and next steps - Section II provides summary assessment of data quality by agency and dataset (national accounts, CPI, PPI, GFS, monetary, BOP) using the DQAF (July 2003) and a four-point rating scale. - Assessments of prerequisites and assurances of integrity are presented in Tables 2a–d; for each dataset, methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility are shown in Tables 3a–f. - Section III contains staff recommendations (not included in this summary). - The authorities’ response and a volume of detailed assessments are presented in separate documents. *IMF staff summary contained in the PDF chapter "1. Data Quality Assessment Framework—Summary Results."* ### 14. To inform its assessment, the mission conducted a user survey and interviewed ### _cr09286 - 14. To inform its assessment, the mission conducted a user survey and interviewed ### User survey and interviews — summary findings - Survey responses and interviews: "13 survey responses and six additional interviews". - Findings confirmed prior assessments: aligned with the 2001 data ROSC mission and the User Satisfaction Survey conducted by Turkstat in 2004. - Overall user sentiment: - "Overall satisfaction with the macroeconomic statistics". - Users desired "more detail, better timeliness, and more robust inter-dataset consistency". - Relative satisfaction by dataset: - Higher satisfaction with: "price, monetary, and balance of payments statistics". - Greater scope for improvement in: "the national accounts (particularly coverage and detail) and in the GFS (data on local governments and social security funds as well as metadata)". - Frequency and timeliness preferences: - Users were "interested in more frequency for the GFS and better timeliness for the national accounts, balance of payments, and government finance statistics". - Interest in "greater timeliness came with readiness to accommodate more revisions under a clear policy of revisions", with respondents noting "the need for more information on such policies". - Accessibility and metadata: - Users were aware of advance release calendars, "except in the case of the GFS". - All users obtained data through websites. - "Virtually all were satisfied with data accessibility, except for a fifth of the users of the national accounts." - Many respondents pointed to a "need for better access to metadata and improved user support". ### Data Quality Assessment Framework — Table 1 highlights - Key to symbols provided: O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO = Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not Observed; NA = Not Applicable. - Datasets covered in the table: "National Accounts", "Consumer Price Index", "Producer Price Index", "Government Finance Statistics", "Balance of Payments", "Monetary Statistics". - Selected dimension results (as presented): - 0. Prerequisites of quality - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment: O across all datasets. - 0.2 Resources: O across all datasets. - 0.3 Relevance: O across all datasets. - 0.4 Other quality management: O across all datasets. - 1. Assurances of integrity - 1.1 Professionalism: O across all datasets. - 1.2 Transparency: O across all datasets. - 1.3 Ethical standards: O across all datasets. - 2. Methodological soundness - 2.1 Concepts and definitions: O for National Accounts, CPI, Government Finance Statistics, Balance of Payments, Monetary Statistics; LO for Producer Price Index. - 2.2 Scope: LO for National Accounts, CPI, PPI, GFS; O for Balance of Payments and Monetary Statistics. - 2.3 Classification/sectorization: O for most datasets; LO for Monetary Statistics. - 2.4 Basis for recording: O for National Accounts, Producer Price Index, Government Finance Statistics, Monetary Statistics; LO for CPI and Balance of Payments. - 3. Accuracy and reliability - 3.1 Source data: LO for National Accounts; O for other datasets. - 3.2 Assessment of source data: O across all datasets. - 3.3 Statistical techniques: LO for National Accounts and Government Finance Statistics; O for CPI, PPI, Balance of Payments, Monetary Statistics. - 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs: O across all datasets. - 3.5 Revision studies: LO for National Accounts and Government Finance Statistics; O for other datasets. - 4. Serviceability - 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness: O for National Accounts, CPI, PPI, GFS, Balance of Payments; LO for Monetary Statistics. - 4.2 Consistency: O for National Accounts, CPI, PPI; LO for GFS, Balance of Payments, Monetary Statistics. - 4.3 Revision policy and practice: O for National Accounts, CPI, PPI, Balance of Payments, Monetary Statistics; LO for Government Finance Statistics. - 5. Accessibility - 5.1 Data accessibility: LO for National Accounts and GFS; O for CPI, PPI, Balance of Payments, Monetary Statistics. - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: O for National Accounts, CPI, PPI, Balance of Payments, Monetary Statistics; LO for GFS. - 5.3 Assistance to users: O across all datasets. - Definitions of practice ratings as provided in the table: - "Practice observed: current practices generally in observance meet or achieve the objectives of DQAF internationally accepted statistical practices without any significant deficiencies." - "Practice largely observed: some departures, but these are not seen as sufficient to raise doubts about the authorities’ ability to observe the DQAF practices." - "Practice largely not observed: significant departures and the authorities will need to take significant action to achieve observance." - "Practice not observed: most DQAF practices are not met." - "Not applicable: used only exceptionally when statistical practices do not apply to a country’s circumstances." ### Agency-specific assessments — Turkstat - Legal and institutional environment: - Turkstat compiles "the national accounts, the CPI, the PPI, and a range of other statistics". - Supported by the Statistics Law "(No. 5429) of November 2005", which "strengthened the coordinating role of Turkstat within the national statistical system" and created "the Statistical Council chaired by the President of Turkstat". - The Official Statistics Program (OSP) and a five-year Strategic Plan support discipline in dissemination and emphasize data quality. - The 2005 law "facilitated access to administrative data, and reiterated the obligation to submit data for statistical purposes and the confidentiality of individual data (with sanctions for noncompliance)." - Inter-institutional coordination is "broadly adequate"; intra-Turkstat coordination is "robust" for national accounts, CPI, and PPI. - Resources: - "A sustained effort to strengthen Turkstat has resulted in a substantial increase in material resources since 2001." - "Over 50 percent of staff are permanent and well-qualified." - "The ratio of personal computers to staff slightly exceeds unity." - Relevance and quality management: - User engagement: "User surveys are conducted periodically", plus "an ongoing web-based user survey, an annual research symposium, and an annual national statistics congress". - Quality Control Board examines and evaluates statistical work and oversees compliance with international standards; "annual monitoring reports on OSP implementation" are prepared. - Professionalism: - President of Turkstat "reports directly to the Prime Minister, is appointed to a renewable five-year term by the Council of Ministers (with a two-term limit), and may not be removed from office (except for a disabling health condition)." - Recruitment and promotion "decided on credentials, ability, and performance"; the 2005 law introduced guidance on recruitment, promotion, and performance appraisal. - Examples of outreach: "two press conferences" and presentations to the Prime Minister and the Council of Ministers at the time of the release of revised GDP data in March 2008. - Transparency and ethics: - The 2005 Statistics Law requires "all relevant information and methods used to compile official statistics be made public" (Article 4). - The Information Access Law "(No. 4982) of 2003" requires provision of requested information within "15 business days". - Turkstat provides information on its website about legal framework, organization, output, and staff; "Data are released simultaneously to the public, as well as policymakers." - Ethical standards mandated: Staff required by the Statistics Law "(Article 13)" to observe ethical standards; "severe penalties may be imposed" (Articles 53 and 54). ### Agency-specific assessments — Ministry of Finance (MOF) - Legal and institutional environment: - MOF authority from "Public Financial Management and Control Law (PFMCL) No. 5018, enacted in December 2003", including Articles "30 and 53", authorizes compilation and sanctions for noncompliance. - Official Statistical Program assigns MOF responsibility for compiling budget statistics; financing and debt data assigned to the Treasury. - Establishment Law No. 540 Article 23 authorizes the SPO to collect data for macroeconomic statistics. - Need to "intensify interagency collaboration" to expedite integrated compilation and uniform classifications across all levels. - Resources: - "Number, qualifications, and training of staff are adequate to perform current tasks." - 2006 introduction of a "standard chart of accounts" and the "say2000i government accounting system" enhanced compilation efficiency and facilitated incorporation of GFSM 2001 and 1995 ESA standards. - Action needed to "encourage a higher degree of retention of trained staff." - Relevance and other quality management: - Datasets meet specific user needs, including IMF reporting; contact details published and "users’ feedback is monitored." - Staff attend OECD and EUROSTAT meetings to keep up with standards. - Continued efforts needed "to further improve data quality, in particular, those on the local government and social security operations." - MOF "would need to take the initiative" to intensify consultation with the SPO to compile consolidated general government in line with GFSM 2001. - Professionalism, transparency, ethics: - "Professional qualifications and competence of compilers are high." - Detailed data on revenue, expenditure, assets, and liabilities are published on the MOF website. - Only compilers and senior officials have access prior to public release; the public is informed of major methodological changes at introduction. - Compilers obligated to observe the "Regulations on Public Ethical Principles issued by the Public Officials Ethical Commission." ### Agency-specific assessments — Treasury and SPO (Office of the Prime Minister) - Legal and institutional environment: - SPO authorized under "Establishment Law No. 540 Article 23" to collect data required for macroeconomic statistics and compiles government finance data. - Treasury responsibilities under "Law on Regulating Public Finance and Debt Management (No:4749)" and "Law on the Structures and Duties of the Undersecretariat of Treasury (No:4059)" include compiling financing data for budgetary central government and central government debt statistics. - Treasury is the sole agency for central government debt and long-term external debt of the public sector. - Resources: - "Number, qualifications, and training of staff are adequate." - Treasury maintains a "comprehensive database and an accountancy system" with robust IT backup; central government accountancy database feeds MoF’s say2000i system. - SPO collects data on "extrabudgetary funds, local governments, social security institutions, and state-owned enterprises." - Relevance and quality management: - Datasets compiled for user needs including "EU accession reporting purposes"; contact information published and "users’ feedback is monitored." - Staff attend OECD and EUROSTAT meetings to track methodological developments. - Professionalism, transparency, ethics: - High professional qualifications; Treasury provides "explanatory materials/briefings" to prevent misinterpretation. - Treasury publishes central government financing and debt data on its website "both in English and in Turkish." - "Only relevant Treasury staff has access to the data prior to their release to the public." - Changes in methodology are rare and noted on the Treasury's website when revisions occur. - Compilers obliged to follow "Regulations on Public Ethical Principles"; new staff are made aware and current staff are periodically reminded. _Italic: Extracted content from the supplied IMF PDF chapter/section._ ### 0. Prerequisites of quality ### 0. Prerequisites of quality ### 1. Assurances of integrity — Monetary and Balance of Payments statistics (CBRT) - Legal and institutional environment: - Compilation and dissemination of monetary and balance of payments statistics are the responsibility of the CBRT, governed by the CBRT Law of 1970 (Law No. 1211) as amended by Law No. 4651 of April 2001. - Article 43 of the CBRT Law authorizes the CBRT to directly request/collect all statistical information needed to exercise surveillance over financial and external developments from banks, other financial institutions, and persons (both legal persons and households). - Article 43 protects the confidentiality of collected data. - The OSP for 2007-2011 establishes that the CBRT is responsible for the compilation, processing, and dissemination of monetary and balance of payments, IIP, international reserves, private external debt, and short-term debt data. - Working arrangements among agencies for the provision of statistical data to the CBRT are adequate (example: CBRT uses surveys conducted by Turkstat to gather BOP data on shuttle trade and travel services). - Total external debt are compiled/disseminated by the Treasury based on the CBRT data on long-term private external debt and short-term external debt. - Resources: - Human resources dedicated to compiling monetary and BOP statistics are adequate to perform existing tasks. - Further expanding supporting surveys and implementing upcoming methodological upgrades (BPM6) will require some supplementation in due course. - Staff are well qualified and staff turnover is low. - Data processing equipment are adequate. - Efforts are devoted to continued improvement in data quality. - Relevance: - Users’ data needs are monitored on an ongoing basis, based on monitoring of users’ comments and questions. - The number of users of BOP/IIP data has doubled since 2001. - CBRT participates actively in international statistical workshops and seminars. - Other quality management: - Continued efforts are needed to maintain/improve the quality of statistical production. - CBRT compiles and disseminates high-frequency data on balance of payments (monthly), private external debt (monthly), and IIP (annual, included monthly IIP indicators). - Professionalism: - Monetary and BOP statistics are compiled on an impartial basis and the terms and conditions promote professional independence. - CBRT enjoys autonomy in carrying out duties defined in its law. - The CBRT Law is available on the CBRT website. - Recruitment and promotion are based on aptitude and expertise; staff are exclusively dedicated to compilation and dissemination responsibilities. - Staff participate regularly in methodological courses, seminars, meetings, and conferences centered on monetary, BOP and other external sector statistics. - Transparency: - Laws and regulations under which monetary and BOP statistics are compiled/disseminated are posted on the websites of the CBRT and Turkstat (both in Turkish and English). - There is no internal government access to monetary and BOP statistics prior to their release to the public. - Monetary and BOP statistics are clearly identified as CBRT products in CBRT publications and the CBRT website, as well as in the OSP. - Since 2002, the CBRT website includes a section with announcements about recent methodological changes for BOP statistics, and starting in mid-November 2008, also on future such changes. - Recent and upcoming methodological and other changes, including for monetary statistics, are on the CBRT website starting from mid–December 2008. - Ethical standards: - The CBRT Law and the CBRT Code of Conduct provide broad ethical guidelines for CBRT staff. - The Code of Organization and Duties determines the area of work and responsibilities of each Department and Division of the CBRT. - These guidelines are fully available to staff. ### National Accounts — Assessment highlights - Methodological soundness: - National accounts estimates are prepared in accordance with the recommendations of the 1995 ESA. - Turkstat has published GDP series according to 1995 ESA for the period 1998–2007, including a full scale revision of the corresponding quarterly GDP series. - Scope and classifications: - Turkstat compiles and disseminates the range of annual and quarterly national accounts tables recommended by ISWGNA except that: - (i) the sequence of accounts for the total economy (up to the financial accounts) is not produced; - (ii) supply and use tables have been produced only for benchmark years. - Plans are in place for producing supply and use tables annually for 2002 onwards. - Economic territory, production and asset boundaries are generally in accordance with 1995 ESA; illegal activities are not explicitly included in GDP. - Institutional units, transactions, and other flows are classified according to 1995 ESA. - Basis for recording and source data: - Market prices used for valuation of stocks and flows; recording generally on an accrual basis. - Annual and quarterly surveys are based on a business register developed and maintained by Turkstat. - New quarterly surveys for service industries and construction are being developed. - Lack of timeliness has been a major issue for the annual business survey; there are no quarterly collections from enterprises for capital formation or changes in inventories. - Statistical techniques and assessment: - Production and expenditure estimates compiled at sufficient detail; change in inventories derived as a balancing item. - Base year for constant price estimates is 1998 and chain volume measures are compiled. - Data from the annual business survey need to be incorporated into the system as soon as feasible. - Household consumption expenditure for goods items derived using a commodity flow approach are significantly higher than corresponding estimates from the annual household budget survey. - Revision and consistency: - No traditional revision studies have been undertaken due to limited utilization of independent annual data sources; comparisons between old and new estimates are made when historical revisions are undertaken. - Periodicity and timeliness meet SDDS requirements. - Consistent annual time series generally available from 1968, and quarterly from 1987; following the historical revision in March 2008, there is a break in all series at 1998. - Consistency is maintained between quarterly and annual national accounts series; Turkstat uses BOP data provided by the CBRT. - Revisions are generally limited to recent quarters, while in the second quarter release quarters of the previous year may also be revised. A more appropriate revisions policy allowing revisions to go back three or four years is envisaged. - Accessibility: - Data initially disseminated via a press release and on the Turkstat website; time series also published in various hardcopy publications. - Release schedule for national accounts is preannounced. - No quarterly estimates are seasonally adjusted. - Metadata are available on the Turkstat website and on the IMF’s DSBB. A detailed sources and methods publication was released in 1994; an updated version is being produced as the GNI Inventory. - Contact information is provided in the press release and on the website. ### Consumer Price Index — Assessment highlights - Concepts and scope: - Concepts and definitions broadly follow international standards given in 1993 SNA and the Consumer Price Index Manual: Theory and Practice. - Index covers monetary expenditures relating to consumption of all resident households; weights exclude own-produced goods, including housing services for owner occupied dwellings. - Deviating from international standards, sales of durable goods (such as vehicles) are not netted out from purchases for constructing market basket weights. - Classification and source data: - Market basket items classified according to a national classification system, a ten-digit extended version of COICOP. - Items and weights derived from a continuous Household Budget Survey (HBS) covering approximately 25,000 private households. - Weights are updated every year. - About 360,000 prices are collected each month from 25,000 outlets in 26 regions and 81 cities. - Methods and validation: - Prices collected are verified according to strict procedures; weights assessed against other source data (PPI, retail trade, imports). - Statistical techniques are in line with recommended practice; treatment of missing prices, disappearing goods, and quality adjustments is adequate. - Validation using PPI as well as agricultural and import price data. - Revision studies are carried out each year prior to updating weights, sample of outlets, list of items, and product specifications. - Timeliness and consistency: - CPI is published on the third business day after the reference month. - Time series data are consistent and available without breaks; index aggregation procedures are internally consistent. - Published CPI is not subject to revision; it is final when released. - Accessibility and user assistance: - Principal results disseminated every month on the Turkstat website and in hardcopy “Press Release: Consumer Price Index Month/Year.” - Press release includes brief analysis, chart comparing 12-month percent changes for current and previous year, and tables presenting percent changes for one month, 12 months, current month to December of the previous year, and a 12 month moving average. - Tables cover 12 major COICOP groups, 26 regions, historical indices for four years and special indices such as core inflation indices. - Complete historical data and metadata available on the Turkstat website. - Contact person and contact information (telephone and e-mail) available on the Turkstat website. ### Producer Price Index — Assessment highlights - Concepts and scope: - Concepts and definitions broadly follow international standards in 1993 SNA and the Producer Price Index Manual: Theory and Practice, although the PPI is compiled only by product and not by economic activity. - PPI covers agriculture, fishing, mining, manufacturing and electricity, gas and water production; it does not cover exports and the service sector. - Enterprises and commodities accounting for the largest value of domestic sales from production are chosen for the index. - Classification and source data: - Economic activities classified using NACE Rev. 1.1; products classified using a 10-digit system associated with PRODCOM, with three extra digits in the national system. - Prices are recorded net of excises, VAT, and other taxes on products. - Weights based on industrial production data for 2005 and agricultural and mining and energy censuses of 2005. - Approximately 13,200 monthly price quotations collected for 756 items from a survey of 1,725 firms. - Coverage represents approximately 70-80 percent of nationwide share in total production. - Methods and validation: - Prices verified according to strict procedures; weights assessed against other source data (CPI, retail trade, imports). - Statistical techniques in line with recommended practice; treatment of missing prices, disappearance of products, and quality adjustments adequate. - Validation of PPI indices using CPI as well as import and export price data. - Revision studies carried out each year prior to updating weights, sample of establishments, list of items and product specifications. - Timeliness and consistency: - PPI is published on the third business day after the reference month. - Time series data are consistent and available without breaks; aggregation procedures internally consistent. - PPI weights updated each year; published PPI is not subject to revisions since it is final when released. - Accessibility and user assistance: - Main aggregates disseminated every month on the Turkstat website and in hardcopy “Press Release: Producer Prices Index Month/Year.” - Press release includes analysis, chart comparing 12-month percent changes for current and previous year, and tables presenting percent changes for one month, 12 months, current month to December of the previous year, and a 12 month moving average. - Tables cover NACE categories at the two-digit division level and historical indices for four years. - Complete historical data and metadata available on the Turkstat website. - Contact person and contact information (telephone and e-mail) available on the Turkstat website. ### Government Finance Statistics — Assessment highlights - Methodological soundness: - Concepts and definitions of budgetary data are broadly consistent with GFSM 1986. - MOF has started to implement guidelines in ESA 95 and GFSM 2001, including accrual recording of transactions. - Scope and comprehensiveness: - SPO publishes consolidated public sector finances on an annual basis. - MOF has begun work to produce and disseminate central government data consistent with GFSM 2001. - MOF has yet to compile data on local government units and social security institutions to allow production of general government data. - Some room exists to expand comprehensiveness of data on total debt of local governments. - Classification and recording: - 2005 Public Financial Management and Control Law has defined general government sector and subsectors. - National classifications bridged to GFSM 2001; MOF and other agencies finalizing national sectorization consistent with GFSM 2001. - Data generally recorded on a mixed basis: revenue on a cash basis; expenditure on a commitment basis. - All central government entities adopted modified accrual accounting rules since 2006; extension to local governments and social security institutions is underway. - Source data and systems: - Major data sources: revenue and expenditure data compiled by the MOF and financing and debt data by the Treasury; automated say 2000i provides a centralized information system. - SPO collects data on local government entities for Turkey’s Annual Programs and other policy-oriented publications. - Assessment, validation and revisions: - Some procedures in place to assess source data; corrections made when reporting errors detected. - MOF has yet to deploy appropriate adjustments to newly available source data to derive general government statistics. - Computerization has enhanced feasibility of compiling higher frequency data. - Data checked against accounting and budget data; Court of Accounts audits aggregate data at end of each budget cycle. - Budget realizations subject to validation assessments by the SPO. - Revisions are tracked by SPO, but studies and analyses of revisions are not regularly conducted by all agencies. - Periodicity, consistency and accessibility: - Periodicity and timeliness prescribed by the SDDS are observed and exceeded in some areas. - Due to recent modifications of concepts and classifications, consistent time series are being developed. - Regular consistency checks with other data sets are seldom conducted. - Major revisions disseminated with explanatory notes, but a well-specified revision policy is lacking. - Publication by MOF of unconsolidated accounts of central and local government operations creates risk of misinterpretation due to some inter-governmental transactions not netted out (double-counting problems). - Detailed data accessible on Turkish versions of MOF and Treasury websites; English MOF website is less comprehensive than Turkish version. - Turkey’s Annual Programs, Pre-Accession Economic Program, and Medium-Term Program accessible on the SPO website in Turkish and English. Only summary data on extrabudgetary funds are published in SPO documents. - Data released on a regular schedule to all users simultaneously, and in excel format. - Advance release calendars disseminated on Turkstat’s Economic Indicators and on the Treasury website. - MOF intends to develop additional ARCs for higher frequency data. - Metadata: brief explanatory notes on definitions, methodology, sources, and contact information accompany published data; published metadata have insufficient detail relative to user needs and there is a lack of a roadmap guiding users through datasets. - Assistance to users: Email addresses and telephone numbers of contact persons disseminated with released data. ### Balance of Payments — Assessment highlights - Balance of Payments content appears in Table 3e heading but source text for Table 3e is not included in the supplied content unit. *Source: _cr09286 - 0. Prerequisites of quality* ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2. Methodological soundness ### Balance of Payments: concepts, scope, and recording - Concepts and definitions broadly follow BPM5, including for resident units (enterprises operating in free trade zones and offshore entities) and direct investment. - Foreign currency deposits held with the CBRT by Turkish citizens residing abroad are adequately recorded in Turkey’s template on international reserves and foreign currency liquidity. - Scope is broadly consistent with BPM5. Transactions between residents and nonresidents are broadly covered, including shuttle trade, reinvestment earnings, debt securities issued abroad held by residents, and domestic securities held by nonresidents. - Tracking weaknesses noted: - Certain transactions on external deposits of the nonbank private sector and noncash loan disbursements to the public sector could be strengthened. - Equity assets are not separately identified from debt security assets, and financial derivatives are commingled with portfolio investment. - Basis for recording: - Most data are valued at market prices and converted into U.S. dollars using the recommended procedures. - Some transactions are recorded on cash basis (rather than on accrual basis). ### Balance of Payments: sources, validation, and timeliness - Key source data and surveys (since 2001) include: - Trade data compiled by Turkstat. - Banks’ foreign exchange records. - Surveys by Turkstat (shuttle and travel) and CBRT (inward FDI, portfolio investment assets, and various services). - Administrative data. - Assessment of source data: - Routine assessments, including banks’ foreign exchange records and surveys; survey response rates are very high. - Statistical techniques: - Adequate procedures used to minimize errors and adjust for missing information; sound procedures used to improve coverage and classification (adjustments to trade data; estimations of some services, income, and trade credits). - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs: - Statistical discrepancies are assessed and data validated; errors and omissions are monitored (around ½ percent of GDP for 2002-2007). - Suggested improvements: comparisons with trading partner trade data (DOTS) and creditors’ data (JEDH), and regular detailed BOP/IIP reconciliation (in tabular form). - Revision policy and practice: - Data revisions carried out routinely; monthly data provisional when first released and revised monthly subject to data availability. - Starting in mid-November 2008, the CBRT publicizes its revision policy; when major revisions are made, the revision is announced on the CBRT website. - Periodicity and timeliness: - Monthly BOP data published with six weeks timeliness (exceed SDDS prescriptions). - CBRT disseminates annual IIP data with six months timelines and, since April 2008, IIP monthly indicators with seven weeks timeliness. - Consistency and reconciliation: - BOP data broadly consistent internally and over time; generally consistent or reconcilable with merchandise trade, IIP, external debt, and MFS. - Limited regular reconciliation exercises with GFS and national accounts. - Data dissemination and metadata: - BOP data disseminated according to BPM5 standard components with annual series since 1987 and monthly data since 1992. - Comprehensive and detailed data disseminated with charts and tables; data made available to all users at the same time on the CBRT website and released on a preannounced schedule. - Metadata: comprehensive and updated documentation on conceptual framework, sources, and methods for BOP compilation available at the CBRT website; metadata included in BOP publications and at Fund’s DSBB. IIP metadata included in IIP publications and posted on IMF website, but no comprehensive document on IIP metadata is produced. - Assistance to users: - Adequate; contact points for BOP/IIP data on CBRT website and Fund’s DSBB; prompt assistance provided in line with the 2003 Information Access Law. ### Monetary statistics: concepts, scope, and recording - Concepts and definitions broadly consistent with the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM), though some different terminologies are used. - CBRT disseminates the monetary survey, similar to the depository corporations survey as defined in the MFSM. - Scope consistent with MFSM: covers CBRT and other depository corporations (commercial banks, participation banks, investment and development banks, and money market funds (MMFs) issuing “Type B” liquid funds). - Classification/sectorization largely in line with MFSM, though: - Each published individual table does not cover all details as presented in MFSM formats, but published tables combined provide most details. - Financial derivatives and positions vis-à-vis MMFs are not separately identified. - Basis for recording: - Valuation broadly consistent with MFSM except monetary gold is valued only on a quarterly basis and accrued interest is not included in the value of the underlying instruments. ### Monetary statistics: sources, processing, and dissemination - Source data: - Data for CBRT and banks obtained electronically via a comprehensive system. - Due to extensive reporting requirements, data for banks often available only after 23 business days. - MMFs’ liabilities assumed to be to households as sectoral breakdown not available. - Assessment of source data: - Reporting forms occasionally revised; data processing and production fully computerized; problems resolved directly with reporting banks. - Statistical techniques and validation: - Monetary statistics derived electronically, minimizing errors. - If data for some banks not available on time, previous month's data are used; generally source data are not adjusted. - Quality controlled through a computerized cross-check program; accuracy checked against supervisory and other CBRT departmental data. - Revision studies and policy: - Revision studies conducted occasionally; revised data archived. - Starting in mid–December 2008 revision practices are made public. - Periodicity and timeliness: - Turkey meets SDDS requirements on periodicity, but takes a flexibility option on timeliness of banking sector data, which are published with a lag of over two months. - Data disseminated according to an advance release calendar. - Consistency: - Consistent time series available for a long period; changes explained in footnotes. - Consistency checks with government finance statistics are rarely conducted; some inconsistencies exist between published fiscal data and monetary data on government accounts; transactions between CBRT and ODCs not fully consistent. - Data and metadata accessibility: - Monthly monetary statistics disseminated on CBRT website and Quarterly Bulletin (Turkish and English); weekly data in “Weekly Press Bulletin.” - Users can download data series from website back to January 1986. - SDDS metadata and summary methodologies on DSBB updated regularly; methodology information on monetary statistics available at CBRT website starting in mid–December 2008. - Assistance to users: - Contact person and e-mail provided on CBRT website; subscription form available. ### Assessment of data quality: general findings - Source data are broadly adequate to compile BOP data; several new or improved surveys since 2001 have supplemented banks’ foreign exchange records. - Assessment of source data is routine; survey response rates are very high. - Adequate statistical techniques used to minimize errors and adjust data; sound procedures to improve coverage and classification. - Errors and omissions around ½ percent of GDP for 2002-2007. - Data revisions are routine and considered in compiling subsequent periods. ### Staff’s recommendations — cross-cutting - Conduct regular inter-agency consultation to verify consistency among macroeconomic datasets (e.g., reconcile fiscal data with monetary data and national accounts estimates of public consumption and investment). - Give greater priority to periodic conduct of revision studies to better inform compilation and users. ### Staff’s recommendations — national accounts (high priority) - Integrate a regular annual estimation process into the existing—mainly quarterly based—extrapolation system for compiling the national accounts; construct annual supply and use tables in current and constant prices using data from the annual structural business survey and other sources. - Compile a more independent measure of household final consumption expenditure, both annually and quarterly, using annual business survey for retail and service industries, the new quarterly service industry collection, and other sources. - Collect information on changes in inventories (at least for major stock holding industries—mining, manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade) on a quarterly basis. - Produce results from the annual structural business survey on a more timely basis. - Compile and publish the sequence of accounts for the total economy on an annual—and preferably quarterly—basis. - Seasonally adjust all published quarterly national accounts estimates. ### National accounts — other recommendations - Reconstruct the GDP series on the new 1995 ESA basis as far back as possible. - Publish a series for gross national income in the next quarterly national accounts release (necessary data are available from the BOP), ensuring that migrant transfers are not taken into account. - Publish estimates for the income components of GDP and compensation of employees by industry as part of the quarterly national accounts release. - Publish more components of gross fixed capital formation (such as software, mineral exploration expenditure) in the quarterly national accounts. - Calculate explicit adjustments for the non-observed economy on an annual basis, rather than extrapolating the 2002 benchmark estimates. - Develop a methodology for adjusting value-added for the understatement of income and overstatement of expenses in data collected from businesses. ### Consumer and Production Price Indices (high priority) - Estimate CPI market basket weights for durable goods using households’ net purchases. - Expand CPI coverage to include housing costs for owner-occupants, possibly by compiling a separate index similar to those used to measure core inflation. - Expedite planned expansion of PPI coverage by compiling export indices. ### Consumer and Production Price Indices — other - Include compilation of PPI by economic activity in medium-term plans. - Move forward with plan to further expand PPI coverage to include the service sector, possibly on a flow basis, beginning with public transportation and communication. ### Government Finance Statistics (high priority) - Disseminate (MOF, Treasury, and SPO) a clear roadmap on the nature and inter-relationships of the various published fiscal datasets to guide users and direct them to appropriate website locations via hyperlinks. - Compile and disseminate (MOF) consolidated accounts of the general government, specifying consolidated accounts of components; expedite efforts to use available source data (on accrual basis) to produce timely estimates of finances of local governments and social security entities. - Further intensify collaboration (MOF, Treasury, and SPO) to expedite an integrated approach to compiling fiscal data coordinated by one agency and accelerate implementation of a single chart of accounts and the same economic and functional classifications by all levels of government and public entities. ### Government Finance Statistics — other - Disseminate (Treasury) additional data on public debt, based on the residency criterion. - Collaborate (all agencies) for publication of comprehensive statistics on the total debt of local governments. - Publish (SPO) a study of experience in preparing fiscal data to inform the public on statistical processes for compiling consolidated public sector data covering budgetary central government, extrabudgetary funds, social security institutions, local governments, and state-owned enterprises. ### Balance of Payments — staff recommendations (high priority) - Improve coverage of noncash disbursements for government loans and nonbank external deposit assets; recording of bonds issued abroad held by residents, financial derivatives, and equity/debt security assets; and further develop/improve surveys on FDI (quarterly) and services. - Extend market valuation to all tradable debt instruments, and record on an accrual basis investment income in the BOP and external debt in the IIP. - Compile regularly a detailed BOP/IIP reconciliation table and publish a summary reconciliation table in 2009. - Allocate more staff resources to compilation of BOP and IIP to expand supporting surveys and implement upcoming BPM6 in due course. ### Balance of Payments — other - Disseminate quarterly IIP data (as encouraged by SDDS) and comprehensive IIP metadata. - Assess regularly the consistency of BOP/IIP statistics, including with data from trading partners (DOTS) and creditors’ data (JEDH). ### Monetary statistics — staff recommendations (high priority) - Bring the timeliness of the monetary survey and the analytical accounts of the banking sector in line with the SDDS prescription by streamlining the reporting system in collaboration with the BRSA without loss of necessary detail. - Identify and report separately financial derivatives in the “sectoral accounts.” - Address discrepancies in inter-bank data. ### Monetary statistics — other - Identify separately the MMFs that issue “Type B Liquid Funds” in the “Institutional Sector List” to facilitate appropriate classification by reporters. - Adhere more closely to the terminology in the MFSM, particularly to describe financial instruments, and explain in footnotes any deviations when warranted. *Source: 2. Methodological soundness, _cr09286_* ### Appendix I. Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness—Practices Compared with the SDDS ### Appendix I. Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness—Practices Compared with the SDDS ### SDDS Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness — Key Observations - The matrix of SDDS categories shows whether Turkey meets SDDS coverage and indicates periodicity and timeliness for each data category; periodicity codes: D, W, M, Q, A; timeliness label: NLT (Not later than). - Selected entries from the table (exact periodicity and timeliness as presented): - National accounts: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = Q; Periodicity (Turkey) = Q; Periodicity detail = 1 Q; Timeliness = NLT 3 M - Production index: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = M; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Periodicity detail = 6 W (1 M); Timeliness = NLT 6 W - Forward-looking indicators: Coverage = ...; Periodicity (SDDS) = M or Q; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Periodicity detail = 1 M or 1 Q; Timeliness = NLT 2 W - Employment: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = Q; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Periodicity detail = 1 Q; Timeliness = NLT 80 D - Unemployment: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = Q; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Periodicity detail = 1 Q; Timeliness = NLT 80 D - Wages/earnings: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = Q; Periodicity (Turkey) = Q; Periodicity detail = 1 Q; Timeliness = NLT 3 M - Price index: Consumer prices: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity = M; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Periodicity detail = 1 M; Timeliness = 3 D - Price index: Producer prices: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity = M; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Periodicity detail = 1 M; Timeliness = 3 D - General government or public sector operations: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity = A; Periodicity (Turkey) = A; Periodicity detail = 2 Q; Timeliness = 6 M - Central government operations: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity = M; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Periodicity detail = 1 M; Timeliness = 1 M - Central government debt: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = Q; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Periodicity detail = 1 Q; Timeliness = NLT 3 W - Analytical accounts of the banking sector: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = M; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Periodicity detail = 1 M; Timeliness = NLT 2 M - Note on flexibility: Turkey is availing itself of a flexibility option on the timeliness of the Analytical accounts of the banking sector data; under this flexibility option the timeliness is NLT two months after the reference period. Due to year-end delays, data for February are disseminated NLT three months and data for December and January NLT four months after the reference period. - Analytical accounts of the central bank: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = M (W); Periodicity (Turkey) = W; Periodicity detail = 2 W (1 W); Timeliness = 1 W - Interest rates: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity = D; Periodicity (Turkey) = D; Timeliness note: 1/ - Stock market: Share price index: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity = D; Periodicity (Turkey) = D; Timeliness note: 1/ - Balance of payments: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = Q; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Periodicity detail = 1 Q; Timeliness = 6 W - Official reserve assets: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = M (W); Periodicity (Turkey) = W; Periodicity detail = 1 W; Timeliness = 6 D - Reserves template: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = M; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Periodicity detail = 1 M; Timeliness = (1 W) 1 M - Merchandise trade (exports: f.o.b.; imports: f.o.b.): Coverage = Yes; Periodicity = M; Periodicity (Turkey) = M; Timeliness = 8 W (4-6 W) 1 M - International investment position: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity (SDDS) = A (Q); Periodicity (Turkey) = A; Periodicity detail = 3 Q (1 Q); Timeliness = 2 Q - External debt: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity = Q; Periodicity (Turkey) = Q; Periodicity detail = 1 Q; Timeliness = 1 Q - Exchange rates: Coverage = Yes; Periodicity = D; Periodicity (Turkey) = D; Timeliness note: 1/ - Population (Socio-demographic data): Coverage = Yes; Periodicity = A; Periodicity (Turkey) = A; Timeliness = NLT 3 M - Footnotes and definitions preserved exactly: - D = Daily; W = Week(ly); M = Month(ly); Q = Quarter(ly); A = Annually; NLT = Not later than; (...) = not applicable - 1/ Given that the data are broadly disseminated by private means, the timeliness with which official data are disseminated is not critical. ### Authorities’ Response — Summary of Ongoing Work and Planned Improvements - General: - The document contains the authorities’ response to the IMF’s data quality assessment (Volumes I and III), dated September 3, 2009. - The Authorities welcome the ROSC recommendations and present ongoing work against those recommendations. #### I. National Accounts — Key Actions and Developments - Staffing and organization: - National Accounts Group: 7 teams and 53 staff in total. - Team breakdown: Production Approach-10 staff-, Expenditure Approach-5 staff-, Income Approach-4 staff-, Annual Accounts (SUT)- 9 staff-, Institutional Sector Accounts -15 staff-, Regional Accounts-5 staff- and Methodology Team-5 staff-. - Revisions and publications: - A major revision of the national accounts by recommendation of the 1995 ESA was released in March 2008; covers annual and quarterly estimates by the production and expenditure approach. - The revised series for GDP by income approach will be published in 2009. - Classification and surveys: - Household final consumption expenditure, external trade and investment in machinery and equipment are compiled according to COICOP. - The new quarterly survey of service industries: first results published in December 2008 including four years data. - Methodological work: - Seasonal Adjustments Working Group established; conducted training on seasonal adjustment. - Draft GNI inventory (chapters 1, 3, 7 and 9) completed. - Studies on institutional sector accounts ongoing; working group established with CBRT, Ministry of Finance, and Undersecretariat of Treasury to prepare general government accounts and EDP Notification Tables. - Regional GDP data to be estimated at NUTS 2 level in current values by mixed methods. - Misreporting by businesses: draft misreporting questionnaire designed; advice being sought from professional accountants. #### II. Price Statistics — Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Methodology and basket: - A new chained CPI was calculated in 2009. - Weighting structure uses net sales of durable goods; added a component for the price of fire insurance to facilitate HICP compilation. - New CPI covers owner-occupied housing, commodities produced by households for own consumption, and expenditures on commodities obtained through in-kind payments. - The results of 2005-2006-2007 HBS are used for the 2009 CPI calculations. - New market basket: 449 items and 845 sub-items (previous CPI had 454 items and 851 sub-items). - Quality control: - Additional quality control systems and improved techniques being developed annually. #### III. Price Statistics — Producer Price Index (PPI) - Planned updates: - Updated PPI will include components for export and services in accordance with the official statistics program. - The current PPI is compiled based on product aggregations for domestic sales; development of a PPI compiled by economic activity or industry is not foreseen in the near future. #### IV. Government Finance Statistics (GFS) - Institutional and compilation changes: - “Communiqué on General Public Sector Statistics” published in the Official Gazette on February 04, 2009 to align classification with GFSM 2001 and eliminate coverage differences. - Expenditure and revenue data of social security institutions for 2006-2008 on a cash basis were received; preparation of general government sector tables required by EUROSTAT has commenced. - Responsibilities for debt statistics: - Treasury responsible for long term public external debt statistics, including local government external debt; for domestic debt, Treasury responsibility limited to central government domestic debt statistics. - For general government and local government subsector, Ministry of Finance responsible for compilation and dissemination of financial accounts including debt accounts under public financial management and control law. #### V. Balance of Payments (BOP) and International Investment Position (IIP) - Dissemination improvements made during IMF mission in November 2008: - Contact information, revision policy, announcements about methodological changes, and announcements about future changes added to CBRT’s website for BOP and IIP. - Specific data adjustments: - ‘Embassies and Consulates’ data moved from banks’ records to administrative-record-based estimates; study results revised for 2007 and January-September 2008 on December 19, 2008. - High Priority actions (authors’ status and planned work): - Improve coverage of noncash disbursements for government loans and nonbank external deposit assets; recording of bonds issued abroad held by residents, financial derivatives, and equity/debt security assets; further develop/improve surveys on FDI (quarterly) and services. - Ongoing studies by working groups accelerated for recording bonds issued abroad held by residents, financial derivatives, and equity/debt security assets. - Work on noncash disbursements for government loans started by Undersecretariat of Treasury and CBRT. - Stock figures for nonbank external deposit assets obtained from BIS and used in IIP with a time lag; use of flow figures under consideration. - “Embassies and Consulates” administrative-record-based data included in “Government Services”; a construction services survey for 2007 conducted and questionnaires for 2008 to be sent shortly. - Quarterly inward FDI survey constrained by staff resources. - Extend market valuation to all tradable debt instruments, and record on an accrual basis investment income in the BOP and external debt in the IIP. - Detailed work and close cooperation with the Treasury required; a working plan to be formed. - Compile regularly a detailed BOP/IIP reconciliation table and publish a summary reconciliation table in 2009. - Detailed reconciliation table currently prepared for internal use; plan to work on monthly reconciliation tables internally and disseminate an annual summary reconciliation table. - Allocate more staff resources to compilation of BOP and IIP for expanding surveys and implementing BPM6. - Authorities agree and note ongoing studies require more staff. - Other actions: - Disseminate quarterly IIP data (as encouraged by SDDS) and comprehensive IIP metadata. - Dissemination of quarterly IIP depends on conducting a quarterly inward FDI survey; constrained by staff resources. - Comprehensive IIP metadata prepared and to be posted on the CBRT website in coming months. - Assess regularly the consistency of BOP/IIP statistics, including with DOTS and JEDH. - Review studies on international data sources (DOTS, JEDH) to be conducted once a year based on year-end figures. #### VI. Monetary Statistics - Dissemination and metadata: - Contact information corresponding to each data series added to EDDS on CBRT website. - Separate section for Money and Banking Statistics prepared in mid-December 2008 including methodology, revision policy, and announcements on methodological changes and revisions. - High Priority actions: - Bring timeliness of monetary survey and analytical accounts of the banking sector in line with SDDS; streamline reporting system in collaboration with BRSA. - CBRT: Extensive branch banking system prevents banks from completing the whole Reporting Package in less than 23 business days; Reporting Package used for supervisory purposes by BRSA contains many interlinked forms reported as a block; CBRT plans cooperation with BRSA to improve timeliness. - BRSA: Under Banks’ Supervisory Package, banks report forms within 23 business days to BRSA and CBRT via electronic control systems; penalty system applied for delays and errors; trial balance form is base form and should be reported simultaneously with other forms; given reporting infrastructure it seems difficult to shorten the reporting lag in the short period. - Identify and report separately financial derivatives in the “sectoral accounts.” - Study initiated; working group analyzing classification from Banks’ Uniform Chart of Accounts into Monetary and Financial Statistics (MFS); plan for financial derivatives to be identified and reported separately in sectoral accounts in 2009. - Address discrepancies in inter-bank data. - Studies will continue to investigate and diminish discrepancies arising from time differences and misclassifications. - Other actions: - Identify separately the MMFs that issue “Type B Liquid Funds” in the “Institutional Sector List” to facilitate appropriate classification by reporters. - MMFs that issue “Type B Liquid Funds” to be separately identified in the “Institutional Sector List” in 2009. - Adhere more closely to MFSM terminology for financial instruments and explain deviations in footnotes when warranted. - Study to improve sectoral and financial instrument breakdown in disseminated data in a format and terminology closer to the MFSM to be initiated in 2009. ### DQAF / Volume III — Document Scope and Structure - Volume III title: Detailed Assessments Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). - Prepared by the Statistics Department; approved September 3, 2009. - Content coverage (contents list preserved): - Detailed assessments for: I. National Accounts; II. Consumer Price Index; III. Producer Price Index; IV. Government Finance Statistics; V. Balance of Payments Statistics; VI. Monetary Statistics. - Tables summarizing DQAF results for each dataset (Table 1 through Table 6). - Appendices include: I. Summary of the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); II. Data Quality Assessment Framework—Generic Framework; III. Users’ Survey. - Acronyms and definitions section provided (selected examples preserved): - 1995 ESA European System of Accounts 1995 - BPM6 Balance of Payments and International Investment Statistics Manual, Sixth edition - BRSA Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency - CBRT Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey - DQAF Data Quality Assessment Framework - HBS Household Budget Survey - IIP International investment position - MFSM Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual - SDDS Special Data Dissemination Standard *Document: _cr09286 - Appendix I. Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness—Practices Compared with the SDDS; Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module; Authorities’ response and Volume III assessments; September 3, 2009.* ### Appendix II), was used to prepare the summary assessment of data quality elements, based ### I. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS ### 0. Prerequisites of quality — Legal and institutional environment - Existence and evolution of official statistical bodies: - Official statistical agency dates back to 1926; centralized statistical system established in 1930. - Former agency reorganized as the State Institute of Statistics (SIS) under the Law on Statistics, Law No. 53, of June 1962. - Decrees No’s 219, 357 and 403 issued in 1984, 1989, and 1990 respectively supplemented the law. - Statistics Law of Turkey No. 5429 enacted on November 10, 2005, totally replaces previous legislation and provides for creation of the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat). - Mandate and oversight: - Article 1: Turkstat to collect, assess and disseminate statistics relating to economic, social, and cultural activities and to ensure coordination among institutions under the Official Statistics Program (OSP). - OSP: detailed rolling five year plan prepared by Turkstat with advice from the Statistical Council; requires approval by the Council of Ministers; Turkstat produces an annual report on implementation (Article 3). - Article 17: technical independence of Turkstat; no external instructions on data sources, methods, dissemination, or confidentiality. - Article 18: Turkstat responsible for preparing and monitoring the OSP and for determining statistical methods, definitions, classifications and standards. - Confidentiality and access: - Article 13: individual reporters’ data not to be provided to administrative, judiciary or military authority, or person. - Article 53 and Article 258 of the Turkish Penal Code no. 5237: staff violating confidentiality liable to imprisonment and a (nominal) fine. - Article 14: unit record data may be provided for research if identifying information removed. - Special aggregation rules, premises security, password protection, and restricted access to individual data are implemented. - Legal mandate for reporting and compliance measures: - Articles 7 and 9: Turkstat authorized to request information from all public institutions and real and legal entities; must be furnished accurately and in required format/time. - Article 54: noncompliance can result in an administrative fine; fines seldom applied for households, more commonly applied to businesses after repeated requests. - Practical measure: inclusion of commonly used commercial accounting codes in annual business survey questionnaires (introduced for reference year 2005 and continued). ### 0.2 Resources - Staff and infrastructure: - Management considers staff resources commensurate with operational needs; many staff have more than 15 years experience in national accounts. - All staff have individual PCs; national accounts data files backed up locally and in the data processing centre. - National accounts data are not stored in a time series database. - Efficiency and performance management: - Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing technology being introduced progressively. - No formal staff appraisal scheme currently; performance criteria are being developed for measuring staff performance and for career planning. ### 0.3 Relevance - User engagement and assessment: - Statistical Council (Article 20) is a high level advisory body including Undersecretaries of Ministries, the Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), and representatives from the Union of Chambers and Stock Exchanges, and academia. - Web-based “User Satisfaction Survey” conducted every six months; results used internally (not published). - Additional user input via Annual Research Symposium (May each year), National Statistics Congress (biennial; first held in 1999), advisory committees, and ad hoc meetings. - Turkstat assigns a contact person for user requests and makes unpublished but non-confidential information available on demand. - Turkstat participates in regional and international meetings examining statistical program content. ### 0.4 Other quality management - Institutional quality focus: - Data Quality Control Unit established within Turkstat to monitor quality of statistical series. - “Strategic Plan, 2007-2011” developed and available on Turkstat website; includes strategic goals and objectives for all statistics produced. - Strategic Plan proposes adoption of the Total Quality Management System from 2008. - Article 41: Data Quality Control Committee established; Quality Reports intended to be prepared for statistical surveys from 2010. - Planning and tradeoffs: - Statistical Council plays an important role in planning; emerging data needs gauged through user surveys, symposia, congress, and advisory boards, with emphasis on meeting EU accession requirements. ### 1. Assurances of integrity — Professionalism and transparency - Professional independence and staffing: - National accounts compiled impartially; no external pressure on content or release schedule. - Article 23: President of Turkstat reports directly to the Prime Minister, appointed to a renewable five-year term by the Council of Ministers (two-term limit), and may not be removed except for disabling health condition. - Staff recruitment via Public Service wide competition (written and oral exams); two-month induction training; cross-departmental rotations for recruits. - Recent recruits participated in Eurostat-sponsored six month postings to other central statistical offices. - Promotion to expert level requires oral and written examination and publication of a professional paper. - Internet based training facility introduced in 2005; employees required to complete approximately 100 hours of technical training in their statistical area; participation monitored randomly and exams required. - Statistical decision-making and dissemination: - Choices of sources, techniques, and dissemination timing/format guided solely by statistical considerations within resource and response-burden constraints. - Advance release calendar for the coming year issued in September each year. - Under previous law SIS had authority to comment on misinterpretation; new law does not explicitly address this, but national accounts staff continue to check media references and request corrections when warranted. - Transparency: - Statistics Law publicly available on Turkstat website in Turkish and English. - Survey forms reference the Statistics Law and confidentiality; contact person information provided in dissemination media. - Article 12: statistical information cannot be given to any person or authority before public release. - Quarterly national accounts released to all users through a press release, on the website and on Turkey’s National Summary Data Page, at 10.00 a.m. on the pre-announced release date. - All data products prepared under the law must be identified as such; name, logo and insignia of the agency appear in publications and other media; third-party reproductions are attributed to Turkstat. - Advance notice: prior to release of upgraded quarterly national accounts in March 2008, Turkstat provided advice on its website concerning proposed changes. ### 1.3 Ethical standards - Staff conduct and guidance: - Statistics Law provisions on confidentiality and penalties, and the Law on Public Servants, guide staff behavior. - New staff made aware of guidelines and Turkstat mission during the initial two-month training period. ### 2. Methodological soundness — Concepts, scope, and boundaries - Concepts and standards: - Revised Turkish national accounts series for the period from 1998 forward are compiled according to the 1995 European System of Accounts (1995 ESA) and are consequently consistent with the 1993 System of National Accounts (1993 SNA). - Scope and coverage: - Regular compilation: annual since 1968 (with rough estimates going back to 1923), quarterly since 1987. - Elements compiled (prior to latest revision and where applicable): - Value added and gross domestic product (GDP) by activity, at current and constant prices (1987 = 100), annual and quarterly; - Expenditure on GDP at current and constant prices (1987 = 100), annual and quarterly; - GDP by income component, annual and quarterly, released once a year; - Compensation of employees by activity, annual and quarterly, released once a year; - Rest of the world accounts on an annual basis; - Occasional square input-output tables (most recently 1990, and 1998); - Provincial GDP for the period 1987 to 2001. - March 2008 revisions: - Revised annual and quarterly estimates released for the period from 1998 following implementation of 1995 ESA. - Revised series cover the elements above except GDP by income components, compensation of employees by activity and provincial GDP have not yet been released. - Base year for constant price estimates moved to 1998 and chain volume measures introduced using the “over the year” annual chaining technique. - Input-output tables (including supply and use tables) for 2002 released on a 1995 ESA basis. - Accounts not yet compiled or under development: - Income and capital accounts for the total economy and for institutional sectors are not compiled; financial accounts are not compiled. - Project commenced within the National Accounts Group to develop institutional sector accounts. - Working Group including Turkstat, CBRT, MOF and the Treasury established to develop financial accounts. - Further work planned to compile estimates for regional GDP (NUTS level 2) on a 1995 ESA basis. - Detailed rest of the world accounts produced and published for the period 2000 to 2005 showing data in $US on a monthly basis. - Production and asset boundaries: - Delimitation of constituent units and production boundary in accordance with the 1993 SNA. - Territorial enclaves in the rest of the world and free trade zones included. - Own-account production, computer software, mineral exploration, entertainment/literary/artistic originals, and informal sector production included (informal sector included indirectly via under-coverage adjustments in the 2002 benchmark year). - No explicit attempt to include illegal activities within the production boundary. - Asset boundary generally in agreement with the 1993 SNA with minor departures: - All expenditure on military equipment and structures treated as government final consumption expenditure except expenditure on construction of dwellings provided to families of military personnel which is included in gross fixed capital formation. - Historical monuments included in gross fixed capital formation. - Valuables included in benchmark estimates of capital formation for 2002 but not separately identified on a quarterly basis. *Appendix II — summary assessment of data quality elements (excerpts).* ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization ### Classification systems and sectorization - Institutional units and transactions are classified according to the 1993 SNA. - Industry classification: Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE Rev 1.1). - Product classification for the 2002 Supply and Use Tables: Statistical Classification of Products by Activity in the European Economic Community (CPA). - Household final consumption expenditure classification: Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP). - General government aggregates are not classified by Classification of Functions of Government (COFOG) in the national accounts release. - Ministry of Finance responsibilities and COFOG publication: - Ministry of Finance now has responsibility for producing government finance statistics (GFS). - Publishing data classifying according to COFOG for central government from 2004 and for local government from 2007. ### Basis for recording — valuation and exchange rate treatment - Valuation rules are in accordance with the 1993 SNA. - Market output valued at basic prices. - Agricultural output for own-use valued at equivalent market prices. - Other non-market output valued at cost. - Only the non-deductible part of value added tax (VAT) is included in valuation of intermediate consumption. - Total exports and imports valued on an f.o.b. basis. - Information on insurance and freight for merchandise imports is available. - Foreign trade statistics conversion to new Turkish Lira: - Daily exchange rates used. - For imports of goods the selling rate is used. - For exports of goods the buying rate is used. ### Basis for recording — time of recording and accruals - Transactions recorded in accordance with the 1993 SNA, as far as possible on an accrual basis. - Work in progress is generally recorded in the period in which it is produced. - In principle, work-in-progress on construction is recorded in the period produced. - Work in progress is not recorded for rearing of cattle or cultivation of trees and orchards. - General government transactions: - Most general government transactions are initially recorded on a cash basis. - Explicit adjustments are made where possible to record general government transactions on an approximate accrual basis. - Compensation of employees is recorded on an approximate accrual basis due to monthly pay and limited retroactive payments. - Legal and institutional developments: - Public Financial Management and Control Law (Law no. 5018) assigns Ministry of Finance responsibility for preparation of GFS consistent with GFSM 2001 and the 1993 SNA. - From 2004, data for central government are being compiled by the Ministry of Finance in accordance with GFSM 2001 and hence should be on an accrual basis. - From 2007, data for local government are being compiled by the Ministry of Finance in accordance with GFSM 2001. ### Grossing/netting procedures - Transactions between establishments within the same enterprise are recorded on a gross basis. ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### Source data — coverage, registers, and surveys - Business register: - Major project with Eurostat assistance to establish reliable business register. - Register covers all industries except agriculture, fishing and defense. - Administrative records from Revenue Administration used to update the register at the end of April each year for the previous calendar year. - Annual updates account for ceased businesses; register includes enterprises and establishments. - Coverage significantly expanded by field enumeration for the 2002 Census of Industry and Business Establishments. - Dwellings and housing: - 2000 Building Census provided enhanced benchmark for stock of dwellings and for estimates of actual and imputed dwelling rent. - Number of electricity subscribers used to extrapolate number of dwellings for subsequent years. - Average rents data from CPI on a monthly basis, classified by type of house and heating system. - Agriculture and fishing: - Agriculture census every ten years; comprehensive production, sales and price data collected by product and region via Ministry of Agriculture network. - Eurostat-assisted projects to improve agricultural statistics; fairly comprehensive fishing statistics exist. - Business and industry surveys: - Annual Structural Business Statistics survey covers most industries except agriculture and fishing. - New annual Survey of Industrial Production (PRODCOM) commenced in 2004 for mining and manufacturing product quantity and value. - Monthly survey of manufacturing production is an important source for quarterly national accounts. - New quarterly survey of service industries commenced in 2005; first results expected after about four years of data. - New quarterly construction industry survey introduced in 2006 for production, orders, employment, wages and working hours. - Construction measurement: - Turkstat collects building permits and occupancy permits from municipalities with population over 2,000. - Commodity flow approach adopted in recent historical revision to capture construction activity not covered by permit system. - Commodity flow approach resulted in a significant adjustment to private gross fixed capital formation on construction in 2002 (up 33.5%). - Commodity flow approach used for subsequent years; permit-based measure still calculated as a consistency check. - Survey methodology and household surveys: - Turkstat surveys rely on scientific random sampling, automated editing, proper imputation, and scientifically derived expansion factors. - Annual structural business survey data sufficiently detailed to derive key national accounts aggregates. - Household surveys comprehensive across urban and rural areas; Labor Force Survey (LFS) conducted monthly since 2000 with dissemination quarterly; sample size increased to 13,000 households each month. - Household Budget Survey (HBS) moved from seven-year intervals to annual from 2002; collects purchases of consumption goods and durable goods, production for own-consumption, and purchases of valuables. - Government finance statistics: - Law no. 5018 makes Ministry of Finance responsible for GFS consistent with GFSM 2001 and 1993 SNA; Ministry has not yet fully taken over all aspects of GFS compilation. - Comprehensive government finance statistics available monthly and annually for budgetary central government; annual information on extra-budgetary activities and local government units available. - Turkstat conducting quarterly survey of 600 local government units; expected to discontinue in 2009 when Ministry of Finance provides necessary GFS data. - Detailed data available to measure output, intermediate consumption, gross fixed capital formation and final consumption expenditure of general government. ### Source data — consistency with national accounts - Source data generally consistent with national accounts definitions, scope, classifications, valuation and time of recording. - Taxes on production and imports estimated on an assessment basis; VAT data adjusted to approximate accrual basis. - Fiscal year of the State and enterprises is the calendar year, limiting inconsistencies between quarterly and annual estimates. - Compilers make necessary adjustments where source concepts differ from national accounts requirements. - From 2004, general government data compiled by Ministry of Finance in accordance with GFSM 2001 and hence should be on an accrual basis. - Coverage of economic activities in terms of value added for most industries is very good. ### Timeliness of source data - Sub-annual surveys, annual and sub-annual administrative data, and other major statistics used for quarterly accounts are timely. - Quarterly production data published 60 to 70 days after the reference quarter. - Lack of timeliness in annual surveys (particularly annual structural business survey) means many are not used in annual national accounts compilation. - National accounts compilers rely on extensive, detailed and reliable monthly or quarterly data from surveys and administrative sources. - Annual compilation mainly incorporates annual revenue and expenditure data for general government and public corporations and revisions to quarterly source data. - The 2002 Census of Industry and Business Establishments took many years to process, causing delays; results for the 2003 and 2004 annual business surveys were published in 2008. ### Main estimation methods by activity and expenditure (selected highlights) - Table A. GDP in Terms of Production — Main methods and sources (selected entries): - Agriculture: direct; good quarterly source data. - Mining: direct; good quarterly sources for output. - Manufacturing: direct; good quarterly sources for output. - Construction: commodity flow compared with building permit based estimate as a check. - Wholesale and retail trade: indirect (margin); new quarterly survey of service industries published in December 2008. - Transportation and storage: direct and indirect (margin); good quarterly sources for rail and air, none for road. - Rent (paid and imputed): indirect (demand side); good quarterly sources for output. - Personal and business services: indirect input indicator from LFS times CPI. - Education and health: indirect input indicator from LFS times CPI. - Public administration and defense / Public education and health: direct; good quarterly source data for central and local government. - Taxes less subsidies on products: direct; good quarterly source data. - Table B. GDP in Terms of Expenditure — Main methods and sources (selected entries): - Household consumption components: - Food, beverages and tobacco: commodity flow; no direct source. - Clothing and footwear: commodity flow; no direct source. - Housing, water electricity etc: direct; good quarterly sources. - Furnishings, h/h equipment etc: commodity flow; no direct source. - Health: production side indicators; no direct source. - Transport & communication: mostly direct, production side indicators; direct information is annual only. - Recreation and culture; Education; Restaurants and hotels; Miscellaneous goods & services: production side indicators; no direct source. - Government consumption: direct; good quarterly source data for central and local government. - Gross fixed capital formation: - Public sector machinery and equipment: direct; good quarterly sources at current prices. - Public sector construction and public works: direct; good quarterly sources at current prices. - Private sector machinery and equipment: commodity flow; no direct source. - Private sector construction: commodity flow; quarterly source data used as a check. - Change in inventories: balancing item GDP – Other Expenditure components. - Exports and imports: - Goods: direct; good monthly data. - Services: direct from BOP. ### Assessment and limitations - Commodity flow approach used for household consumption, private machinery and equipment, and construction: - Household consumption, investment in machinery and equipment and private construction on expenditure side rely largely on commodity flow, carried out largely on a quarterly basis with annual estimates by summation. - Household consumption split between intermediate consumption and value added, and between intermediate and final consumption of households with unincorporated businesses, largely based on fixed coefficients from the 2002 supply and use tables. - Use of commodity flow without information on inventory changes and limited crosschecks is problematic for household consumption measurement, especially without independently derived annual estimates. - Desirable to develop direct estimates for household consumption expenditure on goods; available sources include new quarterly service industries survey, annual structural service industries surveys and HBS; possible use of bar coding system data from retailers envisaged by NAG. - Public sector coverage: - State and large (especially public) corporations account for significant share of output for some activities; coverage of these entities is excellent annually and very good quarterly, especially for public sector establishments. ### Source data assessment practices - Sampling errors information available where applicable. - Nonsampling errors (coverage, misclassification, measurement problems, nonresponse) regularly reviewed; adjustments and corrections made where warranted. - High-value transactions usually confirmed with respondents by post or phone. - NAG provides feedback to source data areas when concerns arise about statistics quality. - Accuracy of administrative data and secondary sources routinely assessed, including budgetary data, international trade, price statistics, and other sources used in compiling accounts. - Source data scrutinized for consistency with related data and with national accounting concepts, definitions and classifications. *Source: _cr09286 - 2.3 Classification/sectorization.* ### 3.3 Statistical techniques ### 3.3 Statistical techniques ### Data compilation and general procedures - Survey division procedures are sound: computerized edits identify errors and imputation techniques are used for nonresponse. - Output estimates: - Compiled at a sufficient level of industrial detail in the benchmark year (2002). - In other years, estimates are prepared for about 30 economic activities, at the one- or two-digit level of the NACE classification. - For manufacturing, the commodity flow system (significantly enhanced during the historical revision) is used to adjust the ratio of intermediate consumption to output for the non-census years. - Estimates of intermediate consumption: - Compiled for the benchmark year at a sufficiently detailed level. - Fixed ratios corresponding to the overall ratio of intermediate consumption to output at the one- or two-digit level in 2002 have been applied for a number industries. - Owner-occupied dwellings: output valued as the estimated rent tenants would pay for similar accommodation; benchmark extrapolated as product of stock of dwellings times the average rent. - Growing crops and rearing of livestock recorded when harvested or slaughtered. - Output and intermediate consumption in mining and manufacturing adjusted for holding gains and losses on inventories. - Construction: commodity flow approach at constant prices used to estimate output using the input output ratio in 2002; construction materials used in dwelling repairs are first deducted; cement assumed used in production of concrete is deducted. - Consumption of fixed capital: perpetual inventory method is the conceptual basis for all asset types. - Government expenditure: - Generally available on a cash basis; where possible adjustments approximate an accrual basis. - Taxes on production and imports initially valued on an assessment basis using MOF estimates; assessment basis is intermediate between cash and accrual. - An explicit adjustment is made to put VAT data on an accrual basis. - Subsidies are valued on an accrual basis. - From 2004, general government sector data are compiled by the Ministry of Finance in accordance with GFSM 2001 and hence should be on an accrual basis. - Price indices: - Compiled at a detailed level and largely meet national accounts requirements for concepts, coverage, and reference periods. - Double-deflation used for agriculture and manufacturing. - Output volume indicators used to extrapolate value added in mining, electricity, construction, wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants, part of transport and storage, communications, and financial services. - Single deflation of value added employed for communications, and part of transport. - Labor input measures from the LFS used for business services, personal services, education, health and public administration and defense. - Volume measures of taxes/subsidies on products estimated by applying base-year tax rates to the volume of transactions subject to a specific tax/subsidy. - Output volume of trade margins estimated by applying base-year margin rates to corresponding volume of sales. - The base year for constant price estimates is 1998 and chain volume measures are compiled using the “over the year” annual chaining technique. - None of the quarterly national accounts series are seasonally adjusted. ### Expenditure approach procedures - Among GDP expenditure components, the following are estimated independently: - government final consumption, - public gross fixed capital formation, - external trade, - a portion of household consumption (rents, nonprofit institutions, most spending on energy, transportation and communications). - The rest of household consumption and private investment in machinery and equipment and construction are derived using the commodity flow approach. - Classification and compilation: - Household final consumption expenditure, external trade and investment in machinery and equipment compiled according to Classification of Broad Economic Categories, United Nations, 1989 (BEC), an aggregation of SITC, Rev. 3. - BEC comprises some 20 categories covering intermediate consumption, final consumption and capital goods. - Government final consumption expenditure compiled according to COFOG. - Gross fixed capital formation compiled by type of asset. - Volume measurement and deflation: - Specific price indices/deflators used to deflate expenditure on GDP components. - Deflation at a detailed level for household final consumption expenditure using COICOP categories. - Gross fixed capital formation deflated using the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) classification. - Household final consumption expenditure deflated indirectly by deflating independently commodity flow components (imports, exports, trade margins, taxes). - Recommended alternative: deflate current price household consumption using detailed CPI components (would require reworking Turkstat's compilation system). - Exports and imports of goods deflated using unit value indices calculated by International Trade section of Turkstat; in some instances volume measures extrapolated and deflators calculated implicitly. - Household consumption implicit deflator broadly consistent with the CPI. - Government final consumption expenditure obtained by deflating cost components of output for final use (employee compensation and “goods and services”). - The base year for constant price estimates is 1998 and chain volume measures compiled using the “over the year” annual chaining technique. ### Other statistical procedures and exhaustiveness - Adjustments made when source data concepts are not consistent with national accounting principles. - Systematic effort in the benchmark year to achieve an exhaustive measure of GDP, including informal and hidden legal activities. - Historical revision released March 2008 made significant improvements to exhaustiveness in benchmark year 2002. - Undercoverage adjustments for several industries (manufacturing, hotels and restaurants, other business services, recreation and cultural services and other services) obtained by comparing LFS employment with employment from the 2002 Census of Industry and Business Establishments (“labor input method”). - This method is recommended in Measuring the Non-Observed Economy – A Handbook. - The undercoverage adjustment has been moved forward from 2002 using the level of activity in each industry rather than being calculated using LFS data for subsequent years. - Construction: previously compiled estimates compared with commodity flow estimates for construction materials; comparison indicated a significant understatement in traditional sources; commodity flow method used to estimate construction output for all years covered by the historical revision. - Small-business misreporting: - Believed that small businesses understate income and overstate operating expenses for taxation purposes. - Investigations and surveys to accountants are being undertaken to estimate the understatement of value added. - At this stage no explicit adjustments are being made to value added for this misreporting. ### Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - Intermediate results are validated against other independent data to the extent possible. - Statistical discrepancies: - Household final consumption expenditure estimates are compared with annual HBS; this revealed a puzzling difference with national accounts estimates much higher for most categories. - Differences increased following the historical revision; a satisfactory explanation has not been found. - Part of the explanation is believed to be cultural behavior in Turkey not to reveal full extent of one's income and expenditure, even to other family members. - Discrepancy between GDP by activity and GDP by expenditure: - Investigated, but supply and use framework has limited usefulness because estimates of supply and demand are not entirely independent due to extensive use of commodity flow approach. - The discrepancy between production and expenditure GDP is allocated entirely to the expenditure side, assuming production estimate is more reliable. - In quarterly national accounts, changes in inventories are derived as a balancing item at both current and constant prices (changes in inventories therefore also includes the statistical discrepancy). - Supply and use: - Supply and use framework used to compile benchmark estimates of GDP for 2002. - Work in progress on compilation of balanced SUT for 2003 and 2004. - Intention is that SUT will be compiled on an annual basis. ### Revision studies - Revisions: - Except for major historical revisions, revisions are generally quite small due to the current revision cycle of only one year. - Systematic revision studies have not been undertaken. ### Serviceability — Periodicity and timeliness - Periodicity: - Turkstat meets the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) for GDP periodicity. - Estimates of GDP published quarterly at current and constant prices. - Timeliness: - Turkstat meets or exceeds the SDDS for timeliness. - Estimates for the first and fourth quarters are released 90 days after the reference quarter. - Estimates for the second and third quarters are released 70 days after the reference quarter. ### Serviceability — Consistency - Internal consistency: - Estimates of GDP by activity and by expenditure component are internally consistent conceptually. - Production measure regarded as the official measure of GDP. - Following the historical revision (covering the period from 1998), an independent expenditure measure of GDP is not produced in the quarterly national accounts because no estimate is derived for changes in inventories; changes in inventories and implicit statistical discrepancy combined as a single item. - On an annual basis the same applies except for years with balanced SUT (to date only 2002). - GDP at current prices, at constant prices, and implicit deflators consistent within “value = volume × price” framework. - Quarterly and annual GDP estimates consistent conceptually and are quite close prior to any proration; annual figures obtained by summation to a large extent. - Reconcilability over time: - Historical revision released March 2008 implemented 1995 ESA and moved base year for constant price estimates from 1987 to 1998; revision resulted in a major discontinuity. - Revised series cover period from 1998 forward. - Previously published series still available on Turkstat website up to 2007, third quarter: annual series commence in 1923; quarterly series start in 1987. - Generally, historical series reconstructed when source data, methodology or techniques change, but no specific plans yet to reconstruct series prior to 1998. - Reconciliation with other frameworks: - External trade data used to compile expenditure measure of GDP are totally consistent with those shown in the balance of payments; consistency confirmed each quarter as part of regular editing. ### Revision policy and practice - New revisions policy announced with release of 1998-2006 historical revision: - Preliminary quarterly GDP estimates proposed to be published approximately 70-90 days after the reference quarter. - Revise quarters of the current year while data for previous years remain frozen until next annual revision. - Revisions conducted once a year for the most recent three or four years based on availability of annual supply and use tables. - Historical revisions conducted from time to time for major updates of international standards or availability of new data sources; it will take time before new policy is fully operational. - Current revision policy (in effect since early 1990s): - Estimates of the first three quarters of the current year revised at time of first estimation for the fourth quarter; all quarters of that year revised once more six months later. - Estimates for earlier years and quarters not revised until a new benchmark year is estimated, every five to ten years. - New source data tend to be incorporated at time of major historical revisions to avoid breaks in the series. - Identification of preliminary and revised data: - Preliminary and revised data are identified; users informed that data are preliminary and subject to revision. - Revised data disseminated with same level of detail as previously published. - Publicization of revision studies: - Revisions to national accounts series are mentioned in the press release and on the website. ### Accessibility — Data accessibility - Presentation: - Estimates, growth rates and shares displayed in press release by (i) activity at the one-digit level; and (ii) by major expenditure category, with additional detail for household consumption by major COICOP category, along with a short analytical commentary. - Suggested additional information beneficial to users: - Income components of GDP; - Compensation of employees by industry; - Gross national income; - The sequence of accounts for the total economy; - More detailed components of gross fixed capital formation; - Implicit price deflators. - Interpretation would be enhanced if all series were seasonally adjusted. - Dissemination media and format: - Data first released via press release and electronic means. - Longer time series appear in Monthly Bulletin of Statistics of Turkstat, Main Economic Indicators of the State Planning Organization (SPO) (monthly), the annual national accounts publication (last issue 2000), and on Turkstat, Central Bank of Turkey and SPO websites. - More detailed series available on demand; designated contact person in national accounts handles enquiries. - Release schedule: - Advance Release Calendar posted on Turkstat website in September; notice published in Monthly Bulletin of Statistics; release calendar included in each national accounts press release. - Simultaneous availability: - Statistical series released simultaneously to all users on date/time specified in advance release calendar; press not briefed in advance. - Non-routinely disseminated statistics: - Non-published but non-confidential detailed data made available upon request; users no longer advised of this service in the quarterly national accounts release. ### Accessibility — Metadata accessibility - Documentation: - Documentation on national accounts concepts and methodology published in Gross National Product; Concepts, Sources, and Methods 1994. - Metadata page on national accounts and other SDDS categories posted on IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board in September 1996; summary methodologies regularly reviewed and updated. - NAG producing the GNI Inventory required by Eurostat; this document will provide detailed information on concepts, sources and methods used to compile Turkey’s national accounts. - Levels of detail: - Metadata available at different levels of detail. *Source: _cr09286 - 3.3 Statistical techniques* ### 5.3 Assistance to users ### 5.3 Assistance to users ### Contact points and ordering - All statistical releases and publications indicate the mailing address, telephone and fax numbers, and e-mail address of the specific divisions of the National Accounts Department that are responsible for the compilation of the statistics, as well as contact information for ordering the hardcopy publication. - Provide contact details for the National Accounts Group on the national accounts press release and on the website (in addition to the general contact detail already shown). ### Catalogs and pricing - The list of Turkstat publications is updated daily on the Turkstat website. - The price of various statistical products is clearly disclosed and assistance is provided in placing orders. - Advise users of the availability of unpublished national accounts series through the press release and the website. ### Recommendations — High priority - Integrate a regular annual estimation process into the existing—mainly quarterly based—extrapolation system for compiling the national accounts. To this end, construct annual supply and use tables in current and constant prices using data from the annual structural business survey and other available sources. - Compile a more independent measure of household final consumption expenditure, both annually and quarterly, using data from the annual business survey for retail and service industries, the new quarterly service industry collection, and other sources. - Collect information on changes in inventories (at least for the major stock holding industries–mining, manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade) on a quarterly basis. - Produce results from the annual structural business survey on a more timely basis. - Compile and publish the sequence of accounts for the total economy on an annual—and preferably quarterly—basis. - Seasonally adjust all published quarterly national accounts estimates. ### Recommendations — Other - Reconstruct the GDP series on the new 1995 ESA basis as far back as possible. - Publish a series for gross national income in the next quarterly national accounts release (necessary data are available from the BOP), ensuring that migrant transfers are not taken into account. - Publish estimates for the income components of GDP and compensation of employees by industry as part of the quarterly national accounts release. - Publish more components of gross fixed capital formation (such as software, mineral exploration expenditure) in the quarterly national accounts. - Calculate explicit adjustments for the non-observed economy on an annual basis, rather than extrapolating the 2002 benchmark estimates. - Develop a methodology for adjusting value-added for the understatement of income and overstatement of expenses in data collected from businesses. - Develop and publish institutional sector accounts. - When available, use export and import price indices for goods for deflation purposes instead of unit value indices. - Conduct and publish periodic analyses of revisions to inform compilers and users of the national accounts. - Implement the new revisions policy announced in the document “Implementation of the ESA-95 in Turkey and the 1998-2006 Historical Revision” (included with the quarterly national accounts release on the Turkstat website). - Publish additional analytical series in the quarterly national accounts, including GDP per capita, GDP per person employed, and implicit price deflators. - Make the quarterly national accounts publication more user-friendly by: - (i) publishing series in millions rather than thousands of YTL; - (ii) avoiding percentage changes for “changes in inventories plus statistical discrepancy,” as these are not meaningful; and - (iii) publishing shares of GDP in current prices only. - Provide contact details for the National Accounts Group on the national accounts press release and on the website (in addition to the general contact detail already shown). ### Accessibility and user assistance (DQAF summary points) - DQAF Assessment for 5.3 Assistance to users: Practice Observed (O). - Identified limitations in accessibility from adjacent DQAF comments: - No seasonally adjusted estimates. - Limited analyses of results. - Publish more components of gross fixed capital formation. ### Institutional and legal provisions relevant to user assistance (selected points) - The Statistics Law of Turkey No. 5429, enacted on November 10, 2005, establishes TURKSTAT, its duties, and specifies technical independence (Article 17). - Article 13: individual reporters’ data should not be provided to any administrative, judiciary or military authority, or person; breaches may be subject to penalties under Article 258 of the Turkish Penal Code no. 5237. - Article 14: unit record data may be provided for research purposes provided identifying information is removed. - TURKSTAT issues an advance release calendar for all official statistics each year. - A contact person is assigned to deal with requests or questions from users, and unpublished, but non-confidential information, is made available on demand. - A web-based “User Satisfaction Survey” is conducted every six months (results are not published but used internally). ### Resources and operations supporting assistance to users (selected operational facts) - The Price Statistics Group consists of two teams, the CPI Team and the PPI Team. - The CPI Team is composed of one supervisor and 13 other professionals who review price data collected by the 26 TURKSTAT regional offices and analyze indices for all 26 regions and the national level. - There are approximately 200 TURKSTAT employees in the regional offices involved in the collection and processing of price data for the CPI, the PPI, the Construction Cost Index and the International Comparison Program (ICP). - Many regional employees are contract employees with one-year contracts. - Information technology: individual computers for staff; an Oracle database is used for data capture and index processing; price data are entered via a direct internet link to Ankara; compiled price series are stored in the database; backup and security measures are in place. - Measures to ensure efficient use of resources include monthly reviews of Department activities and budgets, performance tracking against a critical path for tasks, random audits of price collection effort, and monitoring of processing errors and extreme values. _Italic: Source: _cr09286 - 5.3 Assistance to users_ (PDF chapter) provided content._ ### 1. Assurances of integrity ### 1. Assurances of integrity ### Professionalism - CPI is compiled on an impartial basis; no external pressure on content or release schedule. - Technical independence of TURKSTAT is enunciated in Article 17 of the Turkish Statistical Law; no external person or organization can instruct TURKSTAT staff on data sources, statistical methods and procedures; form, content and time of dissemination; or statistical confidentiality. - Staff recruitment: - Through a Public Service wide competition including written and oral examinations. - New recruits take a one-month training course explaining the mission and responsibilities of TURKSTAT. - Recruits rotate through various departments before permanent assignment. - Recent recruits participated in a Eurostat training scheme involving a six month posting to a central statistical office in another country. - Promotion to expert level requires an oral and written examination and publication of a professional paper. - Ongoing training: - An internet based training facility introduced in 2005 is used each Friday throughout the year. - Each employee is required to complete approximately 100 hours of technical training in his statistical area; participation is monitored randomly and participants must complete an exam over course material. - Every December two or three staff members from regional offices are brought to the central office for face-to-face technical training; training sessions use teleconferencing with regional staff; participants provide training upon return. - Staff can attend lectures, conferences and professional meetings. ### Choices of sources, techniques, and dissemination - Choice of data sources and statistical techniques is guided solely by statistical considerations, within resource and response burden constraints. - Price Statistics Group refers to latest internationally accepted methods; implementations are discussed internally and final decisions are made public in advance. - Timing and format of dissemination are determined by TURKSTAT on statistical grounds; an advance release calendar for the coming year is issued in September each year. ### Commenting on erroneous interpretation and misuse - Under the previous Law on Statistics, SIS had authority to comment on misinterpretation and misuse; the new Statistics Law does not explicitly address this. - Prices staff continue to check media references to price index data and request clarification or correction when warranted. - Practice: Price Index Group drafts a letter to the agency involved correcting errors; letter is signed by the President of TURKSTAT and the agency is asked to publish it. - The President regularly invites journalists for briefings on new developments and data problems. ### Transparency and ethical standards - Statistics Law of Turkey is publicly available on TURKSTAT website in Turkish and English. - All TURKSTAT survey forms reference the Statistics Law and data confidentiality. - Contact information (contact person, postal address, telephone number, e-mail) is identified in dissemination media. - No outside access to the CPI prior to its release. - Data products prepared under the Statistics Law must be identified as such; TURKSTAT name, logo and insignia appear on all publications, press releases and website; CPI data reproduced by other institutions are attributed to TURKSTAT. - Major changes in CPI methodology, source data, and techniques are discussed in advance with important user groups before release. - Staff conduct is guided by the Law on Public Servants; new staff are informed of guidelines during the initial one-month training. *Source: _cr09286 - 1. Assurances of integrity* ### 2. Methodological soundness ### Concepts and definitions - CPI market basket items and weights are based on household expenditure concepts consistent with the 1993 SNA and the new CPI Manual. - Expenditure data on services and commodities are tabulated to permit analysis at five-digit COICOP-HBS detail. ### Scope - CPI covers all private households residing in the country irrespective of income, nationality, and social or residential status, including persons in institutional households (e.g., students in dormitories and military families). - Only monetary expenditures related to household consumption are included; own-produced goods and imputed rent are excluded from the CPI market basket. - Gifts are included for purchasing households but not for consuming households. - Historical change: up until the 2005 CPI revision, Turkish CPI had rental equivalence for urban households and own produced food for rural households; starting in 2005 the two series were combined into one national CPI and both rental equivalence and own produced food were excluded so the CPI reflects only monetary expenditures related to consumption. - Imputed values for own-produced goods and imputed rent are available from the HBS, but the CPI lacks an alternative component to cover owner-occupied housing. - Owner-occupants are estimated to constitute 70 percent of households in Turkey; lack of a homeowner housing component is identified as a significant deficiency. - Recommendation: compile a separate CPI including rental equivalence for homeowners, with market basket weight derived from HBS tabulations on imputed rent and moved by the rent index from the current CPI; data for compiling this index are already available. ### Classification/sectorization - All classification and coding for HBS expenditure data, CPI market basket, monthly price survey, and index dissemination use a ten-digit national classification system based on the five-digit COICOP-HBS. ### Valuation, recording, and grossing/netting - Market prices are used to value flows and stocks, including VAT and applicable discounts. - Detailed product characteristic data including terms of transactions are part of monthly price collection specifications. - Recording is done on an accrual basis for both HBS expenditure data and monthly price data. - Grossing/netting: durable goods weights (including vehicles) should be based on net purchases; current CPI weights for durables were estimated using total purchases only. Turkstat indicates 2009 weights for durable goods will be estimated using net purchases from continuous HBS. *Source: _cr09286 - 1. Assurances of integrity* ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### Source data collection design and coverage - Since January 2005 TURKSTAT compiles a new CPI based on the 2003 Household Budget Survey (HBS) covering all household types in the economic territory. - The new national CPI replaced separate urban and rural CPIs (previous weights from 1994 Household Income and Consumption Expenditure Survey). - Current CPI comprises a national index and 26 regional indices based on 26 separate regional market baskets. - Coverage expanded from 34 provinces under the old CPI to all 81 provinces. - HBS administration: - Beginning in 2003, HBS conducted on a continuous basis. - In 2003 the entire sample of 25,000 households were surveyed; starting in 2004 one third of the 25,000 households is interviewed each year. - CPI market basket weights are estimated annually using expenditure tabulations for the last three years of data available; current weights are based on HBS for 2004-2006. - Reference base for the new index is calendar year 2003=100. - Households complete 5 six-day diaries where all expenditures are recorded; during the diary month households provide demographic information, income data and recall data on durable goods and services expenditures for the previous eleven months. - Household sample selected using Census of Population data; starting in 2007 the Address Based Population Registration System is used to construct sampling frame. - HBS household sample selection uses a three-stage probability sampling procedure; response rate is approximately 70 percent. - Substitute households with similar demographic and housing characteristics are used for non-respondents. - As additional information: HBS sample is selected by stratified two-stage cluster sampling; starting in 2009 sample size to be increased to about 12,500 and the principle of replacing non-respondents with substitute households is to be discontinued. - Price survey: - Approximately 360,000 price quotations collected for 454 basic items, consisting of 851 sub-items or specifications, from approximately 25,000 outlets in 81 provinces for the monthly price survey. - Prices mostly collected by personal visits from price collectors in Ankara and 26 regional offices. - Fresh fruits and vegetables and fuels priced on a weekly basis; most other items priced twice monthly during weeks including the 10th and the 20th of the month. - Rents priced monthly from a sample of 3945 rental units. - Outlets selected based on price collectors' local market knowledge; sample reviewed and updated once each year, usually in November and December. - Outlet sample covers market stalls, craft shops, traditional shops, single-line retail shops, big shopping centers, restaurants, hotels and catalogues. - Prices for fresh fruits and vegetables and fish are collected from market stalls as well as supermarkets and traditional shops. - Turkstat staff attend international seminars and monitor international publications to ensure up-to-date procedures. ### Timeliness and processing - HBS continuous design uses three years of data for weights; current weights based on 2004-2006 allow only one year for processing the HBS for the last year before use. - Monthly price survey is conducted and processed to allow compilation and dissemination of the index on the third business day of the month following the reference month. - Collected price data are processed on a flow basis to allow processing of 360,000 prices per month. ### Assessment and quality assurance of source data - Annual review of expenditure tabulations from continuous HBS for geographic consistency across 26 regions and for atypical values. - New weights assessed against national accounts, PPI, retail trade, export trade, and imports. - Underreporting identified for alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and some durable goods; weights adjusted using other sources. - Overall HBS expenditures understate actual expenditures relative to national accounts; considered not critical for CPI weights since weights are proportions, but potential bias if underreporting varies by type of expenditure. - Turkstat implements several controls to mitigate underreporting: - Supervisors hold lists of substitute households to prevent interviewer selection bias. - Individual diaries given to all household members. - Internal edits check consistency (e.g., households with automobiles checked for fuel expenditures; smokers checked for tobacco expenditures). - Comparisons between reported income and total household expenditures are used to detect omissions. - Non-response: - HBS non-response rate approximately 30 percent; substitute households used, so non-response per se is not present, but potential self-selection bias among non-participants may remain. - No obvious solution short of greatly expanding sample and using extensive non-interview adjustment factors. - Price data verification: - Prices verified in regional and central offices; atypical prices verified with respondents. - Cross-regional checks performed for all price and index data. - Independent audits of price collection performed on a random basis; audit reports are given to price collector supervisors for explanation. *Source: _cr09286 - 1. Assurances of integrity* ### 3.3 Statistical techniques ### 3.3 Statistical techniques ### Data compilation and imputation - Methodologically sound procedures are employed in estimating CPI market basket weights, processing monthly price data, and compiling the monthly CPI. - Strict procedures are in place for reviewing monthly price data to avoid coding, editing and tabulation errors. - Atypical values are verified with the respondent and only changed when it is determined that an error has occurred. - Market basket weights, the outlet sample, and the list of products and specifications are reviewed and updated each year. - When a specified product is not available in a given outlet, an imputed price is calculated using: - the price change of another comparable product, or - the average price change of similar products, or - the index change of the subgroup to which the product pertains. - If the product specification continues to be unavailable a substitute specification is priced. - For items permanently unavailable in a particular location, either a replacement outlet that carries the same item is selected or a new variety that is similar in quality is selected. - Appropriate quality adjustments are made using a variety of internationally recommended techniques. - For seasonally unavailable items (e.g., fresh fruits and vegetables and some clothing items): - monthly weights are used; - missing prices are carried forward while their weights are shifted to similar items until the items are again available for pricing; - the process is carefully monitored to identify any shift in the seasonal availability of these items. ### Weights, valuation, and scope - Weights for the CPI are estimated using the concept of monetary expenditures associated with personal consumption. - In most cases this conforms to the concepts of consumption expenditures outlined in the 1993 SNA and the CPI Manual; however, differences exist in some cases. - Own produced consumption goods and services such as home grown food and imputed rent for homeowners are excluded from the CPI market basket weights in Turkey, since they are not monetary expenditures. - It is noted that 70 percent of the households are owner-occupants in Turkey; neither rental equivalence nor net purchases of residential dwellings are used to represent housing costs for homeowners in the CPI market basket. - Purchases of goods and services are valued at the actual prices paid by households regardless of the method of payment. ### Index compilation methods - Elementary aggregates are compiled using geometric means. - Higher-level aggregates are compiled using the Laspeyres index formula that compares prices in the current period with prices in December of the previous year. - New market basket weights based on three years of HBS expenditure data are introduced each year. - Weights are updated for price change between the HBS survey years and the December in which they are linked into the index. - The reference base for the CPI continues to be 2003=100. - For the current CPI, the weights are estimated using expenditure data from the HBS surveys of 2004-2006. ### Validation, consistency, and discrepancies - Validation of CPI indices is carried out regularly by comparing with corresponding price and index data from the PPI, including agricultural price data, and export and import price data. - Atypical index behavior is assessed continuously. - Each month, the behavior of the CPI indices at all levels is compared across the 26 regions to help detect errors in data collection and/or index processing. - Geographical aggregation of indices to obtain the national index and imputation procedures for missing prices are carried out so they do not produce inconsistent aggregate results regardless of the order of aggregation. - When a major index revision takes place: - the old index is carried forward using price changes from the new series and weights from the old series; - the new index is also compiled with the new weights going backward to the reference base for the new series. - Continuous CPI data at the national level are available since 1980. - CPI data are consistent with corresponding data from other national statistical series such as the RPI, the PPI, agricultural price statistics, and the national accounts. ### Revision studies and practice - Each year thorough studies are conducted regarding revision of market basket weights, the outlet sample, the list of market basket items, and product specifications for price collection. - Basic source data for these studies include expenditure tabulations for each of the 26 regions from the continuous HBS, the annual tourism survey, and a special annual survey for the institutional population. - Additional sources, including retail sales data and industrial production data, are used for certain items (e.g., alcohol and tobacco products) that tend to be underestimated by the HBS. - Reports are written to inform the authorities of the results and are distributed to regional offices so that the index can be updated. - The HBS household sample is being expanded due to insufficient expenditure data in some geographic areas. - All CPI indices are final when published; there are no preliminary indices and published indices are not subject to revision and/or correction. ### Serviceability: periodicity, timeliness, and dissemination - The CPI is compiled and published monthly, meeting SDDS standards. - The CPI is published on the third work day of the month following the reference month, thus exceeding SDDS standards. - The CPI is released on the third business day of the month following the reference month of the index. - The CPI is simultaneously released to all users on the Turkstat website and at a press conference held at Turkstat headquarters each month; no advance information is provided to anyone outside of Turkstat. - Monthly index data are available starting in 1980 for the national CPI. - Detailed index data are available at both national and regional levels on reference bases of 1994 and 2003, with many series extended forward and backward on these bases. - Turkstat provides a hardcopy “Press Release: Consumer Price Index Month/Year” that includes: - a brief analysis of the important changes in the index; - a chart comparing the 12-month percent changes for the current and previous year; - tables presenting percent changes for one month, 12 months, current month to December of the previous year, and a 12 month moving average of percent changes covering the 12 major COICOP groups, the 26 regions, historical indices for four years and special indices such as core inflation indices. - Complete historical data are available on the TURKSTAT website; users can determine the content/format of tables and download data without charge for most products. ### Metadata and user assistance - Metadata on the CPI are available in both Turkish and English on the Turkstat website, including metadata on historical index series. - It is desirable to have a separate document giving a complete formal documentation of the methods employed for compiling the CPI. - Turkstat provides information adapted to different users, including a brochure on frequently asked questions concerning the CPI and the PPI. - Contact persons by each statistical dataset, with telephone numbers and e-mail addresses, are listed on the Turkstat website. - The Turkstat website contains exhaustive lists of databases, index series, publications, and research documents; pricing and ordering information is provided for statistical products that are sold. ### Key figures and exact references - 26 regions - 70 percent of the households are owner-occupants - Reference base: 2003=100 - Weights based on HBS surveys of 2004-2006 - Continuous CPI data at the national level available since 1980 - CPI published on the third work day / third business day of the month following the reference month ### Recommendations - Estimate the CPI market basket weights of durable goods using households’ net purchases. - Expand CPI coverage to include housing costs for owner-occupants, possibly by compiling a separate index similar to those used to measure core inflation. - Continue research to determine the cause of the underestimation of personal consumption expenditures by the HBS. - Prepare a detailed formal documentation of the methodology employed for compiling the CPI. *Source: _cr09286 - 3.3 Statistical techniques (Price Statistics: Consumer Price Index).* ### 0.2 Resources ### _cr09286 - 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources — staffing, facilities, computing, and financing - The PPI Team is part of the Price Statistics Group within the Department of National Accounts and Economic Indicators; the Price Statistics Group consists of two teams, the CPI Team and the PPI Team. - PPI Team composition: one supervisor, three statisticians, one civil engineer, and one assistant expert. - The PPI Team reviews price data collected by the 26 TURKSTAT regional offices and reviews and analyzes producer price indices compiled at a national level. - Regional offices: approximately 200 TURKSTAT employees in the regional offices are involved in collection and processing of price data for the CPI, the PPI, the Construction Cost Index and the International Comparison Program (ICP). - Employment terms: regional directors, supervisors and some other regional staff are permanent; a large number of regional employees are contract employees with one-year contracts. - Authorities indicate adequate funding is available for the price statistics programs. - Staff experience and qualifications: for permanent staff turnover is not a problem; most Price Statistics Group staff have more than ten years experience and no staff member has less than two years experience. All permanent staff and most contract staff hold college degrees both in Ankara and in the regional offices. - Information technology: all staff members have individual computers adequate for work requirements; a state of the art Oracle database is used for data capture and index processing; price data are entered into the database in the regional office via a direct internet link to Ankara; compiled price series are stored in the database; backup and security measures are in place for all basic data and compiled indices. - Facilities: excellent facilities are available for teleconferencing and internet-based training. ### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources - Monthly review: activities of the Department of National Accounts and Economic Indicators and budgetary implications are reviewed each month against TURKSTAT work plan targets. - Reporting: after consultations with Group Leaders, the Department Head sends a report to management each month tracking performance of staff against a critical path for each task and monthly use of budgetary allocations. - Finance Department informs departments regularly regarding budget developments and possible additional allocations from unspent resources. - Quality and monitoring programs: programs are in place to minimize processing errors and improve monitoring of price data for extreme values due to data collection and data entry errors; the data processing system allows for comparison of price and index data over time. - Measurement and audits: time spent by price collectors to obtain monthly price data is measured and compared to standards set through surveys by experts in the field; the price collection effort is subject to random audits. ### 0.3 Relevance — monitoring user needs and relevance - Legal/advisory framework: under the Statistics Law of Turkey (Article 20) the Statistical Council advises on the Official Statistics Program and includes Undersecretaries of Ministries, the Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey, and representatives from the Union of Chambers and Stock Exchanges, and academia. - User feedback: a web-based “User Satisfaction Survey” is conducted every six months; results are not published but used by TURKSTAT to assess how well user needs are being met. - Historic surveys: major user surveys were conducted in 1996, 2001, and 2004. - Consultation mechanisms: relevance assessed through the Annual Research Symposium, the National Statistics Congress, advisory committees and other ad hoc meetings with government officials. - Annual Research Symposium: organized in May each year focusing on methodology issues and statistical techniques; employees, academics and other experts from Turkey are invited; foreign speakers may be invited for special sessions. - National Statistics Congress: TURKSTAT assists in organizing the biennial National Statistics Congress in cooperation with the Turkish Statistical Association and the Association of Statistics Graduates; the first congress was held in 1999. - User contact: a contact person is assigned to deal with requests or questions from users; unpublished but non-confidential information is made available on demand. - External engagement: TURKSTAT sends participants to meetings and seminars of regional and international organizations that examine statistical program content. ### 0.4 Other quality management - Data Quality Control Unit: a special unit has been established within TURKSTAT to monitor the quality of statistical series. - Strategic Plan: TURKSTAT developed a “Strategic Plan, 2007-2011” available on its website with detailed strategic goals and objectives; progress towards meeting strategic goals and objectives is being monitored. - Total Quality Management: the Strategic Plan proposes adoption of the Total Quality Management System from 2008. - Data Quality Control Committee: under Article 41 of the Statistics Law of Turkey a Data Quality Control Committee has been established to review all aspects of statistical work; Quality Reports are intended to be prepared for statistical surveys from 2010. - Planning tradeoffs and emerging needs: TURKSTAT is aware of tradeoffs in production of statistics, especially in meeting EU statistical requirements; emerging data needs are gauged through user surveys, the Annual Research Symposium, the National Statistics Congress, advisory boards and ad hoc meetings; emerging data needs are at present considered to be largely those to meet EU accession. ### 1. Assurances of integrity — professionalism, transparency, and ethics - Impartiality and legal independence: the PPI is compiled on an impartial basis with no external pressure on content or release schedule; technical independence of TURKSTAT is enunciated in Article 17 of the Turkish Statistical Law; no person or organization outside TURKSTAT can give instructions regarding data sources, statistical methods and procedures, form, content and time of dissemination, or statistical confidentiality. - Recruitment and professional development: staff recruitment is through a Public Service wide competition including written and oral examinations; new recruits take a one-month training course; recruits are given opportunities to work in various departments before assignment to permanent jobs; promotion to expert level requires an oral and written examination and publication of a professional paper. - Internet-based training: an internet based training facility was established in 2005, conducted each Friday throughout the year; each employee is required to complete approximately 100 hours of technical training in his statistical area; participation is monitored randomly and participants are required to complete an exam. - Regional training: every December two or three staff members from regional offices are brought to the central office for face-to-face technical training, conducted using teleconferencing with regional staff; upon return they conduct face-to-face training in the regional offices. - External engagement: staff have opportunities to take part in lectures, conferences and professional meetings. - Statistical decisions guided by statistics: choices of data sources and statistical techniques are guided solely by statistical considerations within resource and response-burden constraints; the Price Statistics Group refers to latest internationally accepted methods; implementation and adoption are thoroughly discussed among staff and final decisions are made public in advance; an advance release calendar for the coming year is issued in September each year. - Commenting on misuse: under the previous Law on Statistics SIS had authority to comment on misinterpretation and misuse; the new Statistics Law does not explicitly address this, but prices staff continue to check media references to price index data and request clarification or correction when warranted; the Price Index Group drafts letters signed by the President of TURKSTAT requesting publication of corrections; the President regularly invites journalists for briefings on new developments and data problems. - Transparency of conditions: the Statistics Law of Turkey is publicly available in both Turkish and English on the TURKSTAT website; all TURKSTAT survey forms reference the Statistics Law and data confidentiality; contact persons with postal address, telephone number and e-mail are identified in dissemination media. - Pre-release access: there is no outside access to the PPI prior to its release. - Product identification and attribution: under the Statistics Law any data product prepared under that law must be identified as such; the name, logo and insignia of TURKSTAT appear in all publications, press releases and on the TURKSTAT website; PPI data reproduced by other institutions are attributed to TURKSTAT. - Advance notice of changes: major changes in PPI compilation are discussed in advance with important user groups prior to release. - Staff conduct: staff conduct is guided by the Law on Public Servants and the provisions of the Statistics Act prohibiting disclosure of confidential information; new staff are made aware of these guidelines during initial training. ### 2. Methodological soundness - Concepts and definitions: definitions, item determination for monthly price collection, and weight estimation for the PPI are based on concepts consistent with the 1993 SNA and the PPI Manual; index compilation is done exclusively by commodity aggregation; the PPI is not compiled by economic activity or industry. - Scope: the PPI covers agriculture, mining and manufacturing, and energy, fuel and water; the PPI covers all sales of production to the domestic market but excludes sales of production for export; the service sector is excluded. - Expansion plans: Turkstat plans to expand the coverage of the PPI to include exports and services in 2011. - Weights and coverage: weights for the PPI at the two-digit NACE level (for some sectors at the three or four-digit NACE level) are based on national accounts data; all industrial sales turnover estimated in the national accounts, except production sold for export, is included in weights; coverage reflects sales from all enterprises, including those estimated/imputed for non-reporting enterprises in industrial surveys. - Classification systems: economic activities classified using NACE, Rev 1.1; product classification based on PRODCOM; the eight-digit PRODCOM List is used except national classification includes three extra digits for additional detail. - Basis for recording: weights and prices are generally valued at basic prices, factory-gate prices including VAT in accordance with the 1993 SNA; for agricultural products, prices used are sometimes prices obtained at farmers’ markets, usually the first point of sale. - Accrual recording: producer prices and weights are valued on an accrual basis. - Grossing/netting: transactions between establishments within the same enterprise are recorded on a gross basis for determination of PPI derived from national accounts data. ### 3. Accuracy and reliability — source data, timeliness, sample coverage - New PPI system: beginning in January 2005 TURKSTAT began compilation and dissemination of a new annually chained PPI with weights from two years prior to the current year. - Historical weights: for the 1995 index weights were estimated using data from annual tabulations of sales data from industrial and agricultural surveys conducted in 2003. - Current weights and reference base: for the current year the weights were derived from calendar year 2006 data; however, the reference base for the current PPI is still 2003. - Source datasets: primary sources include the monthly Industrial Production Survey for Manufacturing and Mining covering directly approximately 80 percent of the value of production; for each 10 digit PRODCOM code establishments are presented in descending order of value of total domestic sales and establishments accounting for approximately 80 percent of sales of the product are included in the PPI establishment sample. - Utilities and agriculture data: electricity factory-gate sales are determined using data from the Electricity Generation Corporation, Inc., the Turkish Electricity Trade and Contracting Corporation, and the Electricity Distribution Corporation for Turkey accounting for 100 percent of electricity sales; water data are obtained directly from municipalities and the Agricultural and Environment Department; agricultural sales data are obtained from the monthly Survey of Agricultural Production and average price data are obtained monthly from the Agricultural and Environmental Department. - Sampling frame: the sampling frame for the monthly Industrial Production Survey for Manufacturing and Mining is the new Business Register constructed using establishment data from Ministry of Finance tax registry revenue reports. - Weight aggregation: since weight data for the PPI come from GDP estimates from the national accounts for higher aggregation levels (NACE two-digit, sometimes three and four-digit), the PPI covers all product sales to the domestic market. - Sample size and scope: approximately 13,200 price quotations are collected from approximately 1,725 establishments for 756 COICOP products; the number of monthly price quotations and establishments surveyed was increased significantly with the 2005 revision of the PPI. - Consistency of concepts: since PPI, industrial and agricultural surveys, and national accounts are compiled using Eurostat recommendations including NACE, Rev 1 and PRODCOM, concepts, definitions, valuations and time of recording are consistent for source data and the PPI. - Timeliness of weights: current weights for the PPI are for calendar year 2006; sales data from industrial and agricultural surveys are processed in one year allowing weights to be derived from calendar year 2006 data processed and tabulated during 2007 to determine weights and new samples in December 2007 for compilation of the PPI for 2008. - Timeliness of index dissemination: the monthly price survey is conducted and processed to allow compilation and dissemination of the index on the third business day of the month following the reference month. - Price collection schedule and channels: a monthly form collects prices referring to the 5th, 15th and 25th of each month by mail, fax, or e-mail. - Data processing volume: approximately 13,000 price quotations collected from 1725 establishments are entered into the database and reviewed monthly; TURKSTAT is commended for the timeliness and thoroughness of the monthly PPI compilation process. *Price Statistics (Producer Price Index) — _cr09286 - 0.2 Resources* ### 3.2 Assessment of source data ### _cr09286 - 3.2 Assessment of source data ### 3.2 Assessment of source data - Source data—including censuses, sample surveys, and administrative records—are routinely assessed for coverage, sample error, response error, and nonsampling error; assessment results are monitored and made available to guide statistical processes. - Product weights, lists of products, and establishments selected for price collection for the PPI are evaluated on a regular basis. - Irregularities are verified against source data including the monthly industrial and agricultural surveys and the national accounts weight data provided for PPI compilation. - This verification process serves as feedback to improve the monthly industrial and agricultural surveys. - Price data from the monthly price survey are verified in regional offices and the central office. - Atypical prices are verified with respondents. - Consistency checks are made with corresponding price data from the CPI and export and import unit values. ### 3.3 Statistical techniques - 3.3.1 Data compilation employs sound statistical techniques. - Methodologically sound procedures are employed in estimating PPI weights, processing monthly price data, and compiling the monthly PPI. - Strict procedures exist for reviewing monthly price data to avoid coding, editing and tabulation errors. - Atypical values are verified with respondents and changed only when determined to be errors. - Index maintenance and handling of unavailable products: - The index weights, the establishment sample, and the list of products and specifications are reviewed and updated each year. - When a specified product is not available in an establishment, an imputed price is calculated using: - the price change of another comparable product, or - the average price change of similar products, or - the index change of the subgroup to which the product pertains. - If a product specification continues to be unavailable a substitute specification is priced. - For items permanently unavailable in a location, a replacement establishment or a new variety similar in quality is selected. - Appropriate quality adjustments are made using a variety of internationally recommended techniques. - For seasonally unavailable items (e.g., fresh fruits and vegetables), monthly weights are used; missing prices are carried forward while their weights are shifted to similar items until pricing resumes. This process is carefully monitored to identify any shift in seasonal availability. - 3.3.2 Other statistical procedures: - Methodological techniques generally follow international recommendations. - Weighted arithmetic means are used to combine basic price observations at the first level of aggregation; weights at this level are based on volume of sales data obtained from the establishments where prices are collected. - Higher-level aggregates are compiled using the Laspeyres index formula that compares prices in the current period with prices in December of the previous year. - New weights based on tabulations of industrial and agricultural surveys, and GNP data from the national accounts, are introduced each year. - Weights are updated for price change between the survey year and the December in which they are linked into the index. - The reference base for the PPI remains 2003=100 even though the real base changes each year. - For the current PPI, the weights are estimated for calendar year 2006. ### 3.4 Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - 3.4.1 Intermediate validation: - Validation of PPI indices is carried out regularly by comparing with corresponding price and index data from the CPI, and export and import price data. - 3.4.2 Investigation of discrepancies: - Unusual movements in the monthly index are investigated and either corrected or explained in the monthly press release. - 3.4.3 Imputation and consistency: - Imputation procedures for missing prices are carried out in a manner that does not produce inconsistencies in the aggregate index over time. ### 3.5 Revision studies - 3.5.1 Routine revision studies: - Each year thorough studies are conducted regarding revision of PPI weights, the establishment sample, the list of products, and product specifications. - Basic source data for these studies are annual tabulations of sales by product and establishment derived from monthly industrial and agricultural surveys. - Reports are written to inform the authorities and distributed to regional offices so the index can be updated. ### 4 Serviceability (Periodicity, Timeliness, Consistency, Revisions) - 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness: - The PPI is compiled and published monthly, meeting SDDS standards. - The PPI is published on the third work day of the month following the reference month, thus exceeding SDDS standards. - 4.2 Consistency: - PPI tabulations are made only by product aggregation, not by industry (economic activity); aggregation procedures employed are consistent. - When a major index revision occurs, the old index is carried forward using price changes from the new series and weights from the old series; the new index is compiled with the new weights going backward to the reference base for the new series. - PPI data are consistent with corresponding data from the CPI, the national accounts, and certain components of the export and import unit value indices. - 4.3 Revision policy and practice: - The PPI weights, the establishment sample, the list of products and the product specifications are updated annually based on annual tabulations from the monthly industrial and agricultural surveys. - Current PPI weights are based on value of sales data for 2006. - Although new weights are linked into the index each year, the reference base is maintained as calendar year 2003=100. - Transition to an annual chained PPI eliminates the need for costly periodic major revisions and allows improvements to be introduced on a flow basis each year. - All PPI indices are final when published; there are no preliminary indices and they are not subject to revision and/or correction. - Revision studies are technical and distributed to authorities and regional offices rather than widely disseminated. ### 5 Accessibility (Data, Metadata, Assistance) - 5.1 Data accessibility: - Principal PPI results are disseminated monthly on the Internet and in the hardcopy “Press Release: Producer Price Index Month/Year.” - The press release includes: (1) A brief analysis of important changes in the index; (2) A chart comparing the 12 month percent changes for the current and previous year; (3) Tables presenting percent changes for one month, 12 months, current month to December of the previous year, and a 12 month moving average of percent changes. - These tables cover NACE categories at the two-digit level and historical indices for four years. - Complete historical data are available on the TURKSTAT website. - The PPI is released on the third business day of the month following the reference month. - The PPI is simultaneously released to all users on the Turkstat website and at a press conference held at Turkstat headquarters each month; no advance information is provided outside Turkstat. - Turkstat’s website allows users to download detailed historical price statistics data with customizable content/format: - Monthly historical index data are available for the national PPI at the two-digit and three-digit NACE levels. - Historical index data are also available on the 1994 reference base. - Historical average price data are available at the ten-digit COICOP List level. - There is no charge for this service. - 5.2 Metadata accessibility: - Metadata on the PPI are available in Turkish and English on the Turkstat website, including metadata on historical index series. - Although relatively complete, a separate formal documentation of methods employed for compiling the PPI is desirable. - 5.3 Assistance to users: - Contact persons by statistical dataset, with telephone numbers and e-mail addresses, are listed on the Turkstat website for queries and data requests. - The Turkstat website contains exhaustive lists of databases, index series, publications, and research documents; an effective site map aids navigation. - Most documents and index series can be downloaded without charge; for sold products the information and prices are well presented. ### Recommendations (explicit) - In addition to compiling a PPI by product aggregations, develop a PPI compiled by economic activity or industry that takes into account secondary products. - Expedite planned expansion of PPI coverage by compiling export indices. - Move forward with plans to further expand PPI coverage to include the service sector, possibly on a flow basis, beginning with public transportation and communication. - Prepare a detailed formal documentation of the methodology employed for compiling the PPI in Turkey. *Source: _cr09286 - 3.2 Assessment of source data.* ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Resources ### 0.2 Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing - Existing staff resources are sufficient to carry out current responsibilities. - The MOF’s implementation in 2006 of a standard chart of accounts and the establishment of the say2000i government accounting system have: - enhanced the efficiency of the MOF’s compilation of government finance statistics; - contributed to significant progress in improving coverage and periodicity of government finance statistics; - facilitated incorporation of IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001) and the European System of Accounts 1995 (ESA 1995) in compilation. - Staff involved in compiling government finance statistics have improved their skills through training; specific measures are not in place to encourage retention of such trained staff. - Computer and other technology resources are adequate to meet current needs. ### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources - There is no separate cost information on compilation of government finance statistics. - The allocation of resources is part of the overall fiscal management process. ### 0.3 Relevance - The relevance and practical utility of existing statistics in meeting users’ needs are monitored. - The SPO compiles and publishes data on the public sector as part of Turkey’s Annual Programs and other policy-related documents and contributes to budget preparation. - The MOF compiles and publishes detailed data on revenue and expenditure separately for the central government and the local government; these data inform on the impact of fiscal policy on various government sectors. - The MOF reports data in the GFSM 2001 presentation to the IMF for publication in the IMF Government Finance Statistics Yearbook. - The Treasury compiles financing and debt data to inform policymakers on borrowing requirements. - Turkstat periodically undertakes users’ surveys to monitor the relevance of Turkey’s official macroeconomic statistics (including fiscal data) in meeting users’ needs. ### 0.4 Other quality management #### 0.4.1 Processes to focus on quality - Statistical production is an integral part of normal operations of responsible agencies. - The focus is on application of appropriate accounting rules, since accounting records represent primary source data for various fiscal datasets. #### 0.4.2 Processes to monitor quality of the statistical program - The Court of Accounts audits aggregate budgetary government financial data against data of individual government accounting offices at the end of the year (except for the parliament and the presidency). - The Treasury and the MOF check the consistency of data on revenue, expenditure, and financing on an ongoing basis. - The PFMCL mandates application and publication of uniform accounting standards, in line with international standards. - Government finance statistics are based on accounting records; data reported to the IMF in the GFSM 2001 format are produced through the use of a bridge table drawing data from national presentations. #### 0.4.3 Processes to deal with quality considerations - Steps taken to enhance data quality include improved coverage, periodicity, and timeliness. - Data requirements for (previous) IMF programs and accession to the European Union have provided impetus for improvements in data quality. - A national rolling five-year statistical plan is in place to guide further developments, including government finance statistics; the plan calls for improving data quality and addressing new and emerging data needs. - Three major targets set for government finance statistics: - the implementation of the PFMCL, which, among other items, authorizes the MOF to set government accounting rules in line with the International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSASs) and to collect data from relevant entities to compile government finance statistics at the general government level on a frequent and timely basis; - the introduction of accrual accounting and the migration to GFSM 2001 compilation framework; and - the introduction of the say2000i computerized accounting system at the central and local government levels to facilitate the collection of data over the Internet from government accounting entities and tax collection offices. ### 1 Integrity #### 1.1 Professionalism - Government finance statistics have traditionally been compiled and disseminated on an impartial basis. - The PFMCL establishes the professional independence of the departments responsible for these statistics. - Staff continue to need substantial training to compile government finance statistics in the GFSM 2001 framework. #### 1.1.2 Source and method choices - Staff are, in practice, free from political or other influence in choosing sources and methods for compiling government finance statistics. #### 1.1.3 Right to comment on misuse - Compilers are allowed to explain technical aspects and to respond publicly to misinterpretations of the statistics. - Explanatory material is provided on a regular basis; additional information is provided upon request. #### 1.2 Transparency - Terms and conditions for collection, processing, and dissemination are governed by laws and regulations related to government financial policy and planning. - Article 53 of the PFMCL stipulates periodicity of compilation: quarterly for general government data, monthly for central government data, and quarterly for social security institutions and the local government. - The Official Statistics Program issued by the Cabinet of Ministers sets forth responsibilities of agencies, periodicity, and advance release calendars. - Using authorized passwords, officials of the SPO and the Treasury have access to the say2000i database maintained by the MOF; this information is being posted among Turkey’s metadata for the SDDS. - Most government finance statistics are disseminated in agency-specific publications or websites; the Official Statistics Program defines roles of agencies. - Advance notice has been given of some major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques, including updates in Turkey’s metadata for the SDDS. - Timeline of MOF GFSM 2001 reporting: - Beginning with data for 2006 for the budgetary central government, the MOF started compiling and reporting data in the GFSM 2001 framework to the IMF. - Beginning with data for 2007, the MOF expanded compilation and reporting to cover data on the central government. - The MOF plans to expand compilation and reporting to cover central and local governments for the year 2009, and to cover the general government (including social security) for the year 2010. #### 1.3 Ethical standards - Staff are bound by Government Staff Code 657. - Article 52 of the PFMCL defines responsibilities of accounting and statistical staffs, requiring adherence to international standards and principles of integrity and reliability. - There are no specific guidelines for behavior of staff involved in compiling and disseminating government finance statistics. ### 2 Methodological soundness #### 2.1 Concepts and definitions - Concepts and definitions of budgetary data are broadly consistent with GFSM 1986. - The MOF has started to implement ESA 95 and GFSM 2001 guidelines, including accrual recording of transactions. - Migration to the GFSM 2001 framework is included in Turkey’s rolling five-year statistical plan. - A bridge table has been developed aligning national classifications to GFSM 2001. - Coverage of the general government and its subsectors has been delineated in conformance with ESA 1995 and GFSM 2001. - The MOF introduced a new chart of accounts and standard accounting rules, including accrual recording, for central and local government entities. - The say2000i automated accounting system provides a central data source for government finance statistics. - The MOF has started applying GFSM 2001 framework in compiling and reporting to the IMF for publication in the IMF’s GFSY data on the budgetary central government; it is in the process of reporting GFSM 2001 data on the central government for the year 2007. - The MOF plans to expand compilation and reporting on the local government beginning with data for 2009 and to include social security institutions to cover the whole general government beginning with data for 2010. - The MOF has initiated compilation of an inventory of the government’s nonfinancial assets beginning with acquisitions made in 2007; a partial balance sheet for the central government is being developed. #### 2.2 Scope - Data coverage meets requirements of the Special Data Dissemination Standard for general government operations, central government operations, and central government debt. - SPO annual public sector data are comprehensive: general government covers central government, local administrations, extrabudgetary funds, social security institutions, and revolving funds; public sector covers general government and state-owned enterprises. - MOF revenue and expenditure data for central government and local government are comprehensive. - Separate datasets for central and local government without consolidated accounts pose risk of user misinterpretation where intergovernmental transactions are not consolidated; consolidated accounts of the general government need to be compiled and disseminated. - The MOF has started compiling central government data in GFSM 2001 presentations but has yet to incorporate local government and social security to compile general government data in GFSM 2001. - The MOF has yet to disseminate on its website data compiled in GFSM 2001 presentations and to provide such data to Turkstat for national accounts. - The Treasury publishes regular data on central government debt and public debt with disaggregation by location of issuance, maturity, instrument, currency, and key creditors. - The Treasury can enhance coverage by disseminating an additional dataset on public debt compiled on a residency basis, collaborating with the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT). - SPO data in Turkey’s annual programs represent the main source of consolidated finance data on the general government and the public sector. #### 2.3 Classification/sectorization - The PFMCL defines coverage of the general government and authorizes the MOF to develop an institutional list for statistical compilation to meet EU accession requirements; the list is to be finalized at year end of 2008 and used for compiling GFS in 2009. - Turkey treats social security funds as a separate subsector of the general government, following EU practice. - Tax revenues received by the budgetary central government but earmarked for local governments are included in budgetary central government revenue; transfers to local government are recorded accordingly when made. - Expenses are recorded on an accrual basis in accordance with GFSM 2001. #### 2.4 Basis for recording - Market prices are generally used to value flows and stocks; where transactions are recorded on a due for payment basis, market valuation or the nearest proxy is used. - Consistent with Government Finance Statistics 1986 (GFS 1986), debt liabilities are recorded at face value. - All central government entities have adopted modified accrual accounting rules since 2006; introduction in local government and social security institutions is in process and not completed. - Revenue and expenses (including interest payments) are recorded on an accrual basis, as well as on a cash basis. - Generally, government finance transactions are shown on a gross basis. - Tax refunds and rebates are correctly classified as (negative) revenue transactions. ### 3 Accuracy and reliability #### 3.1 Source data - The MOF’s say2000i automated accounting system collects comprehensive budgetary information on the central and the local governments, providing timely source data for monthly data on revenue and expenses. - The Treasury compiles public sector debt statistics based on its debt management database. - Combining the Treasury debt database and the MOF’s say2000i database, the Treasury compiles financing data for the central government. - Before 2008, the SPO conducted an annual survey on the local government covering 905 municipalities (including all municipalities with population greater than 20,000 and a sample of ones with population fewer than 20,000), all special provincial administrations (SPAs), all utilities and the Ilbank. - For 2008, the SPO collects data via the Internet from all municipalities (3205 plus 16 metropolitan areas), all SPAs, all utilities, local administration units, and the Ilbank. - The SPO’s practice of collecting local government data reflects Turkstat’s two-year publication lag and the SPO’s need for timely data for Turkey’s Annual Programs and policy contributions. #### 3.1.2 Source data alignment with standards - The PFMCL authorizes the MOF to align definitions, scope, classifications, valuation methods, and time of recording to international standards; the MOF has started applying the GFSM2001 framework. - The MOF developed a bridge table linking budgetary items to GFSM 2001 classifications and used it to derive central government GFSM 2001 data reported to the IMF beginning with the data for the year 2006. - The MOF introduced accrual-based recording for compiling government finance statistics. - The accrual accounting system was developed under an agreement—Programmatic Financial and Public Sector Adjustment Loan—with the World Bank and follows international public accounting standards. #### 3.1.3 Timeliness of source data - The say2000i system provides a timely and comprehensive data source by gathering information on financial transactions of the general government. - The availability of comprehensive and timely source data has facilitated the MOF’s compilation and dissemination of monthly data on the budgetary central government and quarterly data on the local government. *Government Finance Statistics* ### 3.2 Assessment of source data ### 3.2 Assessment of source data ### Source-data validation and routine assessments - Source data (censuses, sample surveys, administrative records) are routinely assessed for coverage, sample error, response error, and nonsampling error; results are monitored and made available to guide statistical processes. - Main validation of all government finance data is via benchmarking preliminary data to audited data for all agencies. - No special assessments are made of the relationship between preliminary and final data. - Budget realizations are subject to validation assessments undertaken by the SPO as part of its work in preparing for the Annual Programs. ### Statistical techniques (section 3.3) - Data compilation employs sound statistical techniques; comprehensive information is gathered by the MOF, the Treasury, and the SPO. - For 2008, the SPO collects data on the local government via the Internet covering all municipalities, replacing prior sampling techniques used to derive local government estimates. - With introduction of accrual recording beginning with budgetary central government data for 2006, the MOF revised its budgetary central government data for years 2000 through 2005 and disseminated them on its website. - The MOF has not revised data on the local government and social security funds. - Other statistical procedures (data adjustments, transformations, statistical analysis) employ sound statistical techniques in principle. - The MOF’s separate presentations of central government and local government data, unaccompanied by consolidated accounts to reflect intergovernmental transactions, can cause misinterpretations including apparent double-counting. - The MOF is developing procedures for data adjustments and transformations to: - properly reflect intergovernmental transactions to produce consolidated accounts of central and local government; - develop procedures to incorporate social security operations to derive general government data. ### Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs (section 3.4) - Intermediate results are not validated against other information; specifically, no validations of intermediate government finance data are carried out. - Statistical discrepancies in intermediate data: Not applicable (no assessment undertaken). - Statistical discrepancies between the deficit/surplus and financing, and between financing and changes in gross debt, are investigated and resolved. ### Revision studies (section 3.5) - The SPO routinely reviews coverage and accuracy of datasets on government finance and uses analyses to inform statistical processes that feed Turkey’s Annual Programs, Pre-Accession Economic Programs, and Medium-Term Program. - The SPO could leverage its expertise to assist other agencies in strengthening coverage and accuracy of their datasets. - No public time series or analyses of revisions, or of the relationship between preliminary and final data, are published. ### Periodicity and timeliness (section 4.1) - Periodicity follows the SDDS and exceeds it in some areas: - The MOF’s data on budgetary central government operations are published monthly. (In addition, Turkey publishes annual data on central government operations.) - The Treasury’s data on central government debt are published monthly, exceeding the SDDS prescription for quarterly data. - The SPO’s data on general government operations are published annually. (Turkey’s data go beyond the general government to cover the public sector, including state-owned enterprises.) - Timeliness follows SDDS and exceeds SDDS prescriptions in a number of areas: - The MOF’s monthly data on budgetary central government operations are published within 15 days after the reference period (exceeding the 30-day lag prescribed in the SDDS). - The MOF’s quarterly data on the local government are published within one quarter after the reference period (the SDDS does not require dissemination of quarterly local government data). - The Treasury’s monthly data on central government debt (both domestic and external6) are published within three weeks after the reference period, exceeding the SDDS prescribed quarterly data with a quarterly lag. - The SPO’s annual data on general government operations are published within two-quarters after the reference period. - The Official Statistics Program provides detailed information on timeliness and periodicity and advance release calendars. ### Consistency (section 4.2) - Internal consistency: - Government finance statistics are internally consistent. - The SPO makes adjustments and supplements datasets to compile comprehensive consolidated data on the general government and the public sector. - The SPO could help the MOF and other agencies compile and disseminate consolidated data in addition to subsector datasets, reducing the SPO’s burden of additional data collection and review. - Debt and financial asset consistency: - Government domestic and foreign borrowing and amortization data are derived from the Treasury’s debt management system, which records all debt contracts and transactions (borrowing, amortization, interest, fees and charges). - Data on general government financial assets are derived from accounting records of cash holdings, ensuring consistency between changes in liabilities, financial assets, and financing transactions. - Annual data are compiled by summing sub-annual data—no benchmarking adjustments required. - Time consistency: - Time series on government finance statistics are consistent over time; divergences can be explained by the MOF, the Treasury, or the SPO. - With GFSM 2001 introduction, the MOF produced accrual-basis time series on budgetary central government back to year 2000. - The MOF plans to develop accrual-basis time series on the central government but does not plan to do so for local government. - Cross-source consistency: - There are no general government national (sectoral) accounts for Turkey; Turkstat collects data from the MOF and the SPO and modifies them for national accounts input, but no reconciliation is carried out between government finance and national accounting aggregates. - Domestic debt statistics are compiled and disseminated on a net basis excluding interest; banking statistics show domestic debt stock in market prices from bank balance sheets. - Fiscal data are not fully reconciled with monetary data on government accounts with the banking system and with balance of payments data (external debt). Consistency checks among fiscal data, monetary statistics, and balance of payments statistics are seldom undertaken by the MOF and the CBT. ### Revision policy and practice (section 4.3) - Revisions follow a regular schedule: initial data are preliminary and subsequently replaced by final data; final data are subject to subsequent revisions but this does not occur routinely. - Preliminary data are not clearly identified; they are notified by a general comment such as “Unless otherwise indicated, data are preliminary when first released.” - No public studies or analyses of revisions or of the relationship between preliminary and final data are published. - The SPO’s internal reviews of other agencies’ data could be made public to guide users on how such analyses inform statistical processes. ### Accessibility (section 5) - Data accessibility and presentation: - Government finance statistics are disseminated across the SPO, the Treasury, and the MOF with no single publication or central database that provides an overview of a complete set; users must navigate multiple publications/websites and linkages among datasets are not apparent. - Recommendation: MOF could develop a central electronic fiscal data dissemination bulletin board with salient features, differences, linkages, guidance for reconciliations, and responsible agency contacts. - The English version of the MOF website is less comprehensive than the Turkish version; Treasury and SPO websites have equally comprehensive English and Turkish versions. - Dissemination media and formats: - Data are posted on respective websites and published in documents including the Public Accounts Monthly Bulletin, Government Gazette, budget documentations, the SPO’s Monthly Main Economic Indicators and Annual Programs, and the Treasury’s Public Debt Management Report. - GFSM 2001 presentation data compiled by the MOF beginning with data for 2006 are not posted on the MOF website; they are published in the IMF Government Finance Statistics Yearbook. The MOF plans to post GFSM 2001 data on its website in due course. - Advance release calendars: - An advance release calendar (a year ahead) giving precise release dates for key fiscal datasets is disseminated on Turkstat’s website (www.die.gov.tr/turcat/sdds/sdds.htm). - The MOF is developing additional advance release calendars for high-frequency GFSM 2001 data planned for IMF reporting. - Equal access and simultaneous release: - Budgetary central government data are released simultaneously to all in the MOF press release Central Government Budget Realization. - Central government debt statistics are released simultaneously by the Treasury in monthly and quarterly press releases on Outstanding Domestic Debt and External Debt Stock and in its monthly Public Debt Management Report. - General government statistics are released simultaneously by the SPO in Monthly Main Economic Indicators and Annual Programs. - Non-routine data availability: - Nonpublished (but nonconfidential) sub-aggregates are made available upon request. - Freedom of information via Information Access Law No. 4982 provides public access to unpublished data. ### Metadata accessibility (section 5.2) - Documentation: - Explanatory notes accompany data published by MOF, Treasury, and SPO. - MOF website metadata are more comprehensive on the Turkish version than the English version. - Summary methodology/classification descriptions for SDDS-covered data are available on the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board. - More detailed metadata are needed to inform policymakers and market participants on major differences among datasets. - Recommendation: publish a user guide to Turkey’s government finance statistics explaining scope, concepts, definitions, classifications, methodology, linkages, differences, and reconciliation methods—postable on the proposed electronic bulletin board. - Levels of detail: - More data and metadata should be made available on the English version of the MOF website. ### Assistance to users (section 5.3) - Contact points: - Contact information for each SDDS data category (telephone, facsimile, e-mail) is posted on the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board and other datasets. - Catalogues: - Detailed lists of respective datasets are shown on the websites of the MOF, the Treasury, and the SPO. ### Recommendations (prioritized) High priority - The MOF needs to compile and disseminate consolidated accounts of the general government on a priority basis in the near term to properly adjust for intergovernmental transfers and eliminate apparent double-counting; close coordination with the SPO is recommended. - The MOF needs to incorporate data on social security institutions to compile and disseminate data on the general government; existing revenue and expenditure data on social security institutions available to the MOF provide key source data. - To address disparate datasets, a clear mapping of linkages of various datasets is needed, with explanations and hyperlinks; the MOF can establish a fiscal data dissemination bulletin board on its website and make English-version datasets comparable to the Turkish version. - To enhance data consistency, the Treasury, in collaboration with the CBT, could compile and disseminate an additional data series on the public sector’s external debt based on the residency concept to reconcile with international investment position data compiled by the CBT. Other - The SPO could leverage its review expertise to inform statistical processes of other agencies. - The MOF could share GFSM 2001 presentation data with Turkstat so they can be incorporated into Turkstat’s national accounts data. - The SPO could publish its experiences reviewing and analyzing data used to compile consolidated public sector data (budgetary central government, extrabudgetary funds, local government, social security institutions, state-owned enterprises) to assist users in understanding differences and reconciliation. *Source: 3.2 Assessment of source data — _cr09286 - 3.2 Assessment of source data (PDF).* ### 0. Prerequisites of quality 0.1 Legal and institutional environment ### _cr09286 - 0. Prerequisites of quality 0.1 Legal and institutional environment ### 0. Prerequisites of quality — Government Finance Statistics (GFS) summary - The MOF has not incorporated data on the local government and those on social security institutions to compile general government data in the GFSM 2001 presentations, which the MOF reports to the IMF for publication in the IMF Government Finance Statistics Yearbook. - The MOF is working on developing procedures on data adjustments and transformations to reflect properly intergovernmental transactions to produce consolidated accounts of the central government and the local government; it also needs to develop similar procedures to incorporate data on social security operations to develop data on the general government. - The SPO routinely reviews the coverage and accuracy of various datasets on government finance; it uses these analyses to inform its statistical processes to compile data on the public sector finance, which appear in Turkey’s Annual Programs, Pre-Accession Economic Programs, and Medium-Term Program. The SPO could leverage its expertise in this area to other responsible agencies to strengthen the coverage and accuracy of their datasets. - Fiscal data and monetary data on government accounts with the banking system are not fully reconciled. Consistency checks with monetary statistics and balance of payments statistics are rarely done. - The SPO’ studies and analyses of revisions could be made public to guide users in understanding how such analyses inform statistical processes. - The MOF’s separate presentations on its website of data on the central government and on the local government, unaccompanied by consolidated accounts to take account of intergovernmental transactions, has subjected the data to misinterpretations, including the appearance of double-counting of expenses, when certain expenses appear in both the central government and the local government data. - The English version of the MOF website is less comprehensive than its Turkish version. - There is a need to document linkages of different datasets, noting their salient features and differences (including concepts, scope, classifications, etc.) to guide users in properly interpreting the data and reconciling them. Such documentation could be posted on the websites of the MOF, the Treasury, and the SPO, along with hyperlinks to the various datasets. ### 1. Assurances of integrity — Government Finance Statistics - References to professionalism, transparency, and ethical standards are indicated but specific content in this unit is marked with symbol X (practice observed or assessed in the source table). ### 2. Methodological soundness — Government Finance Statistics - The MOF has not incorporated local government and social security institution data into GFSM 2001 presentations for general government reporting to the IMF. - The MOF is developing procedures for adjustments and transformations to properly reflect intergovernmental transactions for consolidated central and local government accounts and to incorporate social security operations into general government data. ### 3. Accuracy and reliability — Government Finance Statistics - The MOF and SPO activities include review of coverage and accuracy; SPO expertise could be shared to improve datasets across agencies. - Revision studies: SPO routinely reviews datasets; potential to make studies public to guide users. ### 4. Serviceability — Government Finance Statistics - Periodicity and timeliness are noted as assessed (symbol X). - Consistency: fiscal and monetary accounts are not fully reconciled; consistency checks with monetary statistics and balance of payments statistics are rarely done. - Revision policy and practice: SPO analyses could be published for user guidance. ### 5. Accessibility — Government Finance Statistics - Data accessibility: Separate MOF presentations for central and local government without consolidated accounts have caused misinterpretations, including apparent double-counting. - Metadata accessibility: Need to document linkages, differences, and salient features of datasets; recommend posting documentation and hyperlinks on MOF, Treasury, and SPO websites. - Assistance to users: assessed (symbol X). *Italic: Table and assessment entries derived from the Data Quality Assessment Framework (July 2003) summary for Government Finance Statistics in source document.* --- ### V. Balance of Payments Statistics — 0. Prerequisites of quality (CBRT responsibilities and arrangements) - Responsibility and legal framework - The compilation and dissemination of the balance of payments (BOP) statistics are the responsibility of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) and are governed by the terms and conditions of the CBRT Law of January 1970 (Law 1211), as amended by Law 4651 of April 2001. - Article 43 of the CBRT Law authorizes the CBRT to directly request and collect all statistical information relating to the financial system and other statistical information necessary for surveillance of developments in the economy and the BOP, from banks, other financial institutions, and persons (including legal persons and households); to investigate and supervise the accuracy of such information; to request additional information and documents; and to publish statistical information. - Within the CBRT, the BOP Division of the Statistics Department is responsible for compilation and dissemination of BOP and international investment position (IIP) statistics, as well as the reserves template, private sector’s long-term external debt, and total short-term external debt. - The Statistics Law of Turkey (Law 5429) of November 2005 reinforces the CBRT’s responsibility for compiling and disseminating BOP and the above-mentioned statistics; the five-year Official Statistics Program (OSP) created by this Law identifies frequency and periodicity for data collection and dissemination, main data sources, and the methodological framework. - Data sharing and coordination - Procedures and working arrangements among agencies for timely provision of data to the CBRT for BOP compilation are adequate. - CBRT’s BOP compilation draws on: foreign currency transactions data through resident banks; surveys conducted by the CBRT and Turkstat; foreign trade data provided by Turkstat; and administrative data sources. - Working arrangements with Turkstat assure timely flow of foreign trade data and surveys on travel and shuttle trade (since 2003). - Treasury consolidates and disseminates total external debt data quarterly; Treasury compiles long-term public external debt under the 1994 Treasury Establishment Law; CBRT provides data on private sector’s long-term external debt since October 2001 and total short-term external debt. - In implementing OSP 2007-2011, CBRT holds regular meetings with other agencies to avoid duplication and consider reporting burden. - Confidentiality and legal protections - Article 43 of the CBRT Law and Article 35 impose confidentiality obligations on CBRT and staff; collected statistical information shall not be used for non-statistical purposes and shall not be considered as evidence. - Statistics Law (Law 5429) Article 13: confidential data access limited to production staff; data considered confidential if number of respondents < three or if dominance by one or two respondents; confidential data cannot be delivered to administrative, judiciary, or military authorities or used as instrument of proof; personnel must comply even after leaving duty. Article 53 establishes penalties for violating confidentiality per Article 258 of Turkish Penal Code 5237 and judiciary fines. - “Regulation of Procedures and Principles of Data Confidentiality and Confident Data Security in Official Statistics” issued June 2006. - Surveys for BOP compilation state collected information is confidential; only authorized Statistics Department staff access individual respondent data; computer systems use password protection to prevent unauthorized access. - Legal mandate for reporting and enforcement - Article 43 authorizes CBRT to request statistical information and to investigate accuracy; banks and financial corporations must submit annual balance sheets, income statements, and reports of boards and auditors to the CBRT. - CBRT circulars/guidelines require reporting forms to be submitted within one month after the end of the reference month. - Article 68 (III.b) of the CBRT Law stipulates penalties for noncompliance: fines from 500 to 1,000YTL (equivalent to 330 to US$670), and possible suspension or restriction of operations authorized by the CBRT Law. Statistics Law also establishes obligations and sanctions. - Response rates have been high; CBRT has not enforced penalties. BOP Division encourages response via goodwill, prompt answers, emphasizing BOP importance, assistance with forms, and pilot studies before new requests. ### 0.2 Resources — BOP Division staffing, expertise, and systems - Staffing and capacity - The BOP Division comprises 23 professionals responsible for compiling the BOP, IIP, reserves template, private sector’s long-term external debt, and short-term external debt. - Staffing is assessed as adequate for existing tasks, but increasing in five the number of qualified staff of the BOP Division is of great importance for expanding surveys and implementing upcoming methodological guidance (BPM6). - Professional expertise: high level; staff qualifications adequate; staff turnover is not high. - Twenty staff members are university graduates, and nine have a Masters degree in economics; some Masters were fully financed by the CBRT. - Eight staff members participated in BOP courses and three staff members in external debt courses organized by the IMF in Washington, D.C. and the Joint Vienna Institute. - Computing resources and systems - BOP Division staff each have a computer; LAN connected. Excel datasheets are the main software used for compiling BOP and IIP statistics. - The CBRT database (DB2) is used for compiling private sector’s long-term external debt, short-term external loans, and annual inward FDI survey data. - CBRT is working toward transferring the quarterly portfolio investment assets survey and the BOP from Excel files to the CBRT database. - Resource planning and cost-effectiveness - In September of each year, the CBRT reviews resources in the context of budgetary planning for the next three years. - The Accounting Department conducts a quarterly review to assess cost-effectiveness in each unit. Human Resources conducts reviews to improve work. Departments prepare budgets for the next three years. - New technology is tested by computer and systems analysis experts. - CBRT requests guidance from the Fund and OECD on methodology and compilation when necessary; country experiences are considered. ### 0.3 Relevance — Monitoring and user engagement - User monitoring and responsiveness - CBRT monitors users’ needs via questions and requests; Information Access Law of October 2003 requires public institutions to respond to queries within 15 days. - Foreign and domestic users may send queries about BOP statistics directly to CBRT and generally receive responses within 15 days. - BOP Division intends to conduct a users’ survey among subscribers to BOP and IIP statistics. - External engagement - Staff participate in regional and international meetings: OECD Working Group on International Investment Statistics; Working Party on International Trade in Goods and Trade in Services Statistics; CDIS seminar; Eurostat BOP Working Party and Travel Technical Group; BIS meetings on locational/consolidated banking statistics; Handbook on Debt Securities Statistics. - Occasional lectures and press conferences with outside experts and media. ### 0.4 Other quality management — Processes and planning - Quality control and validation - CBRT exercises quality control during data production and dissemination; validation procedures assess plausibility and are reviewed with reporting institutions for misclassifications and miscalculations. - All levels of the Statistics Department participate in data review prior to publication. - Data are checked for misreporting; CBRT reverts to reporting institutions when necessary. BOP Division staff visit reporting institutions once or twice a year to review data provision processing. - Training programs and workshops provided to reporting institutions; example: a two day workshop in Istanbul in early 2008 with staff from research departments of about twenty commercial banks. - Monitoring of statistical program and audits - The Statistics Department verifies reporting practices are consistent with regulations, and crosschecks are conducted and discrepancies investigated. - In early 2008, the BOP Division was subject to an internal audit by the CBRT’s Internal Audit Department. - For problems in data collection, reporting institutions are informed and guided by Statistics Department staff. CBRT uses media to monitor large external debt transactions and large-scale direct investment operations. - The Statistical Council established by the Statistics Law monitors implementation of the five-year Official Statistics Program and provides advice; the Governor of the CBRT is a member. The Council meets at least once a year. - Quality considerations in planning - The five-year Official Statistics Program (prepared and reviewed annually by Turkstat in consultation with CBRT) monitors consistency with international standards, future plans, and advance release calendars. - CBRT management recognizes tradeoffs among different dimensions of data quality; timeliness is regarded as one of the most important dimensions. - Monthly BOP statistics and annual IIP data are compiled and disseminated; monthly IIP indicators have been produced since early 2008. Some data are published as provisional to accommodate reporting delays. - Subscribers to BOP and IIP statistics automatically receive data via links to CBRT website. Number of subscribers increased from about 2,000 in 2001 to 3,850 subscribers in November 2008. - Improvements since 2001 include collection of annual inward FDI and quarterly portfolio investment assets through surveys by the BOP Division, and enhanced coverage of services through implementation of surveys. *Italic: Content extracted verbatim from the source document _cr09286 (PDF) covering GFS and Balance of Payments prerequisites of quality.* ### 1. Assurances of integrity ### 1. Assurances of integrity ### Professionalism - Article 4 of the CBRT Law establishes that the CBRT shall enjoy absolute autonomy in exercising the powers and carrying out the duties granted by the Law under its own responsibility. - The terms and conditions under which the BOP statistics are produced promote the professional independence of the CBRT. - Professional competence plays a key role in recruitment and promotion policies. - When major changes in methodology occur, the CBRT publishes methodological notes on the CBRT website and/or in regular quarterly publications. - Staff participates regularly in regional and international meetings and conferences related to their technical work responsibilities (see 0.3.1). - The choice of source data and statistical techniques for BOP compilation is based solely on statistical considerations made by the CBRT staff. - The Statistics Department comments on erroneous interpretation of its statistics if deemed truly significant and seeks to prevent misinterpretation or misuse of statistics by providing explanatory notes in its publications, website and in press releases. ### Transparency - The laws and regulations under which BOP statistics are collected, processed, and disseminated are available to the public, including the references to the obligation to compile and disseminate statistics, and the confidentiality of individual responses. - The CBRT Law is available on the CBRT website, and both the Statistics Law of Turkey and the 5-year Official Statistics Program are available on the Turkstat website, as well as in hardcopy formats. These documents are published in Turkish and English. - As indicated in Turkey’s BOP metadata on the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB), a limited number of senior CBRT staff have access to data prior to their publication. No one outside the Statistics Department of the CBRT has access to the data before their release to the public. - Article 12 of the Statistics Law establishes that all institutions participating in the OSP shall take measures to ensure easy and equal access to all users and to assure that no person or authority have access to this information before its public release. - Statistical products of the CBRT, including BOP statistics, are well identified in the OSP 2007–2011 (see 0.4.3). - BOP publications, such as the monthly Balance of Payments Statistics and the quarterly Balance of Payments Report, are clearly identified as a CBRT product, acknowledging Turkstat and the Treasury, among other institutions, as data sources through footnotes that accompany the relevant tables. - In mid-November 2008, the CBRT included a separate section of “Announcement about future changes” in the CBRT website to provide users with advance notice of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques for BOP and IIP data (http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/odemedenge/odmainengyeni.html). Previously, the CBRT informed of major changes in methodology and compilation methods of BOP and IIP when implemented. ### Ethical standards - The Code of Conduct for CBRT Staff provides broad ethical guidelines for CBRT staff. It regulates recruitment of personnel, their rights, duties and responsibilities, as well as disciplinary rules and rewards. - The Code of Organization and Duties determines the area of work and responsibilities of each department and division of the CBRT. - These guidelines are fully available to staff. When new staff join the CBRT, they participate in an orientation course that covers these guidelines thoroughly. ### 2. Methodological soundness ### Concepts and definitions - Concepts and definitions used to compile the BOP statistics are in broad conformity with the guidelines of the BPM5. - Resident institutional units are defined in conformity with the BPM5; including the residency of offshore entities and enterprises operating in free trade zones, which is attributed to the economy where they are located. - BOP transactions are defined according to the guidelines of the BPM5, including (i) the definition of direct investment following the 10 percent ownership rule, (ii) the definition of goods according to the recommended breakdown; and (ii) the recording of financial leasing as loans in the financial account. - Foreign currency deposits held with the CBRT by nonresident Turkish citizens (“Dresdner deposits”) and commercial banks deposits at the CBRT from reserve requirements denominated in foreign currency are treated in line with the requirements of the template on international reserves and foreign currency liquidity (reserve template). ### Scope - Turkey’s BOP statistics broadly cover all resident-nonresident transactions according to the BPM5; including transactions of free trade zones located in Turkish territory, shuttle trade, reinvested earnings and intercompany lending, portfolio investment assets of the private sector, and trade credit. - The CBRT includes in the BOP and IIP statistics the transactions and stock data of debt securities, respectively, according to the residency of the instrument holder rather than to the economy where the securities were issued, in accordance with the guidelines of the BPM5 and the External Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users. - The scope of the following transactions in the BOP could be further strengthened: (i) external deposits of the nonbank private sector, (ii) equity and debt securities external assets, (iii) noncash loans disbursements to the public sector, and (iv) capital transfers. These areas are not considered significant and are being kept under review. ### Classification/sectorization - Institutional units are classified in four sectors (monetary authority, general government, banks, and other sectors). - The monetary authority corresponds to the CBRT. Other sectors covers nonbank financial corporation, nonfinancial corporations (both public and private), and households. - Government guaranteed external debt transactions are attributed to the institutional sector of the borrower, and public enterprises’ claims and liabilities are attributed to other sectors. - Some deviations from the guidelines of BPM5 include (i) goods for processing and repairs on goods are classified under services on a net basis, rather than as goods, (ii) financial derivatives are commingled in portfolio investment; and (iii) general government debt securities issued abroad and held by residents are recorded as an increased in external assets rather than as a decrease in external liabilities. These areas are not considered significant and are being kept under review. ### Basis for recording - Turkey’s BOP statistics are compiled in U.S. dollars. Transactions in other currencies are converted into U.S. dollars following guidelines outlined in the BPM5. - When appropriate, transactions are valued at the exchange rate prevailing on the day of transaction; otherwise, at the correspondent weighted average exchange rates for the reference period. Stocks in other currencies are converted into U.S. dollars at the end-month correspondent exchange rate. - Where transaction estimates are derived from stock data, the stock data are revalued into their original currencies, when available, and then the change in original currency is converted into U.S. dollars at the average exchange rate for the reference period. - Valuation rules follow market valuation as recommended by the BPM5: goods are valued on a f.o.b. basis, services are valued at the price paid for the services provided, tradable financial instruments are valued using the price quotation from markets, and nontradable instruments are recorded at nominal value. - Some deviations from the BPM5 valuation rules include (i) general government’s bonds issued abroad are valued at nominal value rather than at market value; nevertheless, adjustments based on the residency of the instrument holder rather than to the economy where the securities were issued are made at market value; and (ii) monetary gold is not valued at current market prices but a fixed price at the end of each quarter for the subsequent three-month period. - BOP accounting, where possible, is done on an accrual basis. However, some BOP transactions are recorded on a cash basis. - Transactions of goods are recorded according to customs documents, i.e., at the time they legally enter the country. - Interest, dividends, and profits are recorded on a cash basis. - Reinvested earnings on FDI are recorded in the periods when earnings are accrued to the direct investor in proportion to participation in the equity of the enterprise. - Services are recorded when paid not when provided. - Most transactions in the financial account are recorded when foreign exchange is paid or received. - No adjustments are made to approximate accruals; for example, by applying income yields to the value of assets and liabilities using various types of the extrapolation techniques. - Grossing/netting procedures are broadly consistent with BPM5. Most current account items are recorded on a gross basis. Financial account items are mainly recorded on a net basis, separately for the individual asset and liability components. ### 3. Accuracy and reliability ### Source data - The data sources are broadly sufficient to compile major items of the BOP statistics. - Since 2001, the CBRT has made significant progress in developing new/improved surveys to replace/supplement the banks’ foreign exchange records for a number of BOP items. - Banks’ foreign exchange records are collected from commercial banks and the CBRT. The Monthly Foreign Exchange Position Report submitted by the banks to the CBRT consists of codes established to classify all foreign exchange transactions, both for inflows and outflows. - Transactions for a number of services, income, and current transfers are not identified and/or classified appropriately in the banks’ foreign exchange records. Therefore, surveys are conducted for some of these items to overcome this drawback. Box 1. Balance of payments statistics—Main data sources - Foreign trade data compiled by Turkstat - Banks’ foreign exchange records - Surveys conducted by Turkstat: 1. Shuttle trade (since 2003) 2. Departing nonresident visitors—Travel receipts (since 2003) 3. Arriving citizens—Travel expenditures (since 2003) - Surveys conducted by the CBRT: 1. Annual inward FDI survey (since 2001) 2. Quarterly portfolio investment assets survey (since 2006) 3. Surveys on services a. Air transportation—Resident operators (since 2005) b. Air transportation—Nonresident airlines (since 2005) c. Insurance services (since 2006) d. Telecommunication services (since 2003) e. News agencies services (since 2006) f. Catering (since 2005) g. Ground handling (since 2005) h. Construction services in 2008 - Survey conducted by the Treasury 1. Annual outward FDI survey in 2008 - Administrative sources: 1. FDI data compiled by the Treasury to cross check FDI data from banks’ records 2. Public sector debt stock data provided by the Treasury 3. Debt securities held by nonresidents provided by custodian banks 4. Equity securities held by nonresidents provided by Central Registry Agency 5. Ministry of Labor and Social Security for compensation of employees (debit). 6. General Directorate of Land Registry and Cadastre for real estate bought by nonresidents (recorded in FDI). - The financial press is closely monitored for information on international transactions, especially for financial account transactions such as FDI and portfolio investment. - Goods: The main source of information for imports c.i.f. and exports f.o.b. is the monthly data on foreign trade flows compiled by Turkstat from customs documents and from major enterprises when customs documents are not available. The CBRT makes coverage and classification adjustments to goods trade data compiled by Turkstat to comply with BPM5 (see 3.3.2). - Transportation: Data for passenger fares, excess baggage, and other transportation receipts and expenditures regarding air transportation are collected through surveys from domestic and foreign airline operators. Turkstat provides freight and freight insurance expenses, disaggregated by the residency of operations and means of transportation, from customs declarations, rather than using a fixed coefficient based on previous periods. - Travel: Data are based on sample quarterly surveys conducted by Turkstat, in cooperation with the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the CBRT. The surveys cover the average expenditure of nonresident foreign visitors and nonresident Turkish citizens (deemed as “tourism revenues”) and the average expenditure of residents on their trips abroad (deemed as “tourism expenditures”). The expenditures of nonresident Turkish citizens are included in the BOP since 2003. Business and personal travel are identified separately. - Other services: The CBRT surveys on services are the main source data for aircraft operational leasing, telecommunication, insurance and reinsurance other than freight insurance, and news agencies services. For the remaining other services, the banks’ foreign exchange records are the main data source. Currently, the CBRT is conducting a survey on construction services, and a study on embassies and consulates, which results have not yet been included in the BOP statistics. - Income: Income data on FDI, portfolio investment, and other investment are derived from the banks’ foreign exchange records. Data on wages earned by nonresidents working in Turkey for one year or less have been recorded under compensation of employees since 2005. Data on reinvested earnings from FDI in Turkey are obtained from the annual inward FDI survey conducted by the CBRT. Data on reinvested earnings from FDI abroad are not included in BOP/IIP statistics (authorities consider that these figures are not material). - Current transfers: The general government item includes cash grants received by the government through the banks’ foreign exchange records, and payments of Turkish citizens residing abroad to the government in order to be exempted from the compulsory military service. Noncash grants to the government are not regularly recorded in the BOP. In case of natural disasters, data on noncash grants were obtained from the Turkish Red Crescent (as it was the case in 1999). Data on workers’ remittances are derived from banks’ foreign exchange records and comprise the foreign exchange remittances by nonresident Turkish citizens sent through resident banks and converted into domestic currency. Earned premiums and claims received vis-à-vis paid premiums and claims incurred for nonlife insurance are recorded under the credit and debit items in current transfers of other sectors, respectively. - Direct investment: Data on equity capital are obtained from bank's foreign exchange records and data on reinvested earning from the FDI survey (for inward investment). Since January 2003, FDI data include real estate investment transactions of nonresidents, based on records of the General Directorate of Land Registry and Cadastre, which shows the figures of traded real estate with a country breakdown. Intercompany loans from direct investors abroad to the resident FDI enterprises are included under the other capital component. The Treasury is currently conducted an annual survey on outward FDI, which results have not yet been included in the BOP statistics. Stock data for inward FDI are compiled by the CBRT through an annual survey and stock data for outward FDI are compiled from banks’ accounting records for banks and from Treasury’s records for the nonbank sector. - Portfolio investment: Data on equity and debt securities are derived from the banks’ foreign exchange records and the CBRT, without a separate identification for security assets, but with a breakdown into assets and liabilities and a further breakdown by sectors. Bonds issued abroad by the Treasury are obtained from the CBRT records. Data on domestic debt securities held by nonresidents are derived from stocks data provided by custodian banks on security-by-security basis, and adjusted for foreign exchange and market price changes. Since 2005, data on nonresidents’ equity security investments in Turkey are obtained from the Central Registry Agency Inc. of Turkey (CRA). Previously, these data were obtained from the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). In contrast with flow data recorded in the BOP, stock data on portfolio investment assets separately identify equity and debt securities. Since 2006, these data are obtained from end-investors through a quarterly survey conducted by the CBRT; this survey was conducted annually during 2001-2005. This quarterly survey is also used for the CPIS conducted by the IMF. - Financial derivatives: These instruments are not adequately compiled in BOP statistics. - Other investment: Data on loans, currency and deposits, and other assets/liabilities are obtained from banks’ foreign exchange records. Data on short-term trade credit for imports and exports are provided by Turkstat, and their payments are estimated by using a moving average method. Data on disbursements and repayments of loans are received from banks in their Monthly Foreign Exchange Position Report along with detailed credit information forms. The coverage of public external debt disbursements in the BOP statistics is mainly limited to information on cash drawings provided by banks’ foreign exchange records. - Reserve assets: Changes in reserve assets are derived from the CBRT’s foreign exchange records. The Monetary and Financial Division of the Statistics Department is responsible for compiling the Central Bank reserves data on a weekly basis. The BOP Division is responsible for the compilation and dissemination of the reserve template on a monthly basis. - In general, data collection based on surveys is adequate. Table 2 below presents information on the surveys currently used to compile BOP and IIP statistics, including the agency that conducts the survey, the year when the survey was first conducted, the periodicity and coverage, the sample size, and the surveys’ responses. In general, the response rate is quite high. - Currently, there are two additional ongoing surveys, which results have not been yet included in the BOP/IIP statistics: (i) the annual survey on outward FDI conducted by the Treasury and (ii) the quarterly survey on construction service conducted by the CBRT. - The coverage of inward FDI surveys may be expanded in order to include information on direct investment-intercompany lending. *Source: _cr09286 - 1. Assurances of integrity* ### Box 2. Surveys for Compiling BOP and IIP Statistics in Turkey ### Box 2. Surveys for Compiling BOP and IIP Statistics in Turkey ### Surveys and response rates - Turkstat surveys (sample size corresponds to 2008Q3; sample size varies due to seasonality): - Shuttle trade (since 2003, quarterly, monthly reporting frequency noted as M): sample size 958; response 958; 100%. - Departing nonresident visitors (2003, quarterly, M): sample size 2,115; response 2,115; 100%. - Arriving resident citizens (2003, quarterly, M): sample size 48,070; response 48,070; 100%. - CBRT surveys and coverage (periodicity: A = Annual, Q = Quarterly, M = Monthly): - FDI (inward) (2001, A): sample size A; response A; numbers: 2,576; 1,418; 55%; 90%. - Portfolio investment assets (2006 Q, Q): sample size 1,287; response 759; 59%; 83%. - Air transport - Resident airlines (2005 Q, M): sample size 13; response 9; 69%. - Air transport - Nonresident airlines (2005 M, M): sample size 35; response 16; 46%; 90%. - Insurance service (2006 Q, M): sample size 42; response 39; 93%. - Telecommunication (2003 M, M): sample size 5; response 5; 100%. - News agency services (2006 M, M): sample size 8; response 8; 100%. - Catering (2005 M, M): sample size 2; response 1; 50%. - Ground handling (2005 M, M): sample size 2; response 2; 100%. - Construction (ongoing) (2008 Q, Q): sample size 137. - Treasury: - FDI (outward) (ongoing) (2008 A, A). - Notes: - These surveys were previously conducted by private enterprises on behalf of the CBRT. - For Turkstat surveys, sample size corresponds to 2008Q3. - Considering only largest companies and for portfolio investment excluding nonfinancial enterprises. - Survey conducted annually by the CBRT for 2001-2005. - Ongoing surveys. ### Assessment of source data: definitions, scope, timeliness, and routine assessments - Definitions and scope: - Source data are to a large extent in line with BPM5. - IT Registration System (ITRS) provides data on a cash basis, although BPM5 requires accrual basis for BOP statistics. - Timeliness: - Monthly foreign trade statistics disseminated by Turkstat within four weeks after the reference month. - Commercial banks submit Monthly Foreign Exchange Position Report to the CBRT within 21 days after the reference month. - Enterprise survey data are timely; CBRT notifies reporters promptly in case of exceptional delays. - Routine assessment practices: - Administrative records of banks’ foreign exchange transactions are periodically assessed for coverage and misclassification, particularly services, income, and current transfers. - Surveys on travel services and shuttle trade are assessed periodically. - Survey data collection has increased in importance since 2001. - Survey accuracy is routinely assessed for nonresponse and sample errors. - CBRT confirms high-value transactions with individual respondents through reporting banks and/or directly. - Reporting threshold exists for requiring verification of correct classification by banks. - Large fluctuations in reported transaction values are investigated by the CBRT. ### Statistical techniques and data adjustments - Data management and validation: - CBRT uses computerized edit checks, macros within excel files to check monthly banks’ foreign exchange records on original currency and U.S. dollar equivalents. - Discrepancies linking to other reporting forms are immediately notified to the reporting bank. - Monthly crosschecks performed for database frames (e.g., private external debt, intercompany debt liabilities). - Once corrections are made, data are consolidated into monthly BOP statistics. - Specific adjustment methods employed: - Imports c.i.f. adjusted to f.o.b. using freight and insurance information from Turkstat. - Shuttle trade: quarterly Turkstat surveys at border gates; average expenditure for products to be sold abroad multiplied by number of foreign visitors involved in shuttle trade (estimated using percentage of foreign visitors who declare bulk purchases in departing nonresident visitors survey). - Freight credit and debit: revised based on customs declarations from Turkstat since 2003; freight and insurance expenses disaggregated by residency of operators and means of transportation. - Travel revenues: estimated by expanding average expenditures of departing visitors by population of nonresident foreign visitors and nonresident Turkish citizens; resident travel expenditures estimated by expanding average expenditure of residents traveling abroad by population of resident Turkish citizens. - Trade credit for exports and imports: estimated using a moving average method for repayments based on customs documents from Turkstat. - Securities (debt and equity) issued domestically and bought/sold by nonresidents: estimated from custodian banks for debt securities and from CRA for equity securities; debt securities provided weekly for Government Domestic Debt Instruments (GDDI); equity securities provided daily; flows calculated from positions by eliminating price and foreign exchange rate changes. - Compensation of employees: estimated based on number of nonresidents granted working permits for one year or less by the Ministry of Labor and Social Security. - Coverage and classification adjustments by CBRT: - Coverage: (i) goods purchased in Turkey by shuttle traders for resale abroad (estimated via Turkstat surveys); (ii) goods purchased from/sold to nonresidents by enterprises operating in foreign trade zones. - Classification: (i) nonmonetary gold; (ii) goods procured in ports by carriers; (iii) freight and freight insurance. ### Box 3: Foreign Trade Adjustments (Million of US dollars) - Exports of goods in trade statistics 1/: - 2006: 85,535 - 2007: 107,272 - Jan.-Jun. 2008: 68,874 - Adjustments (2a)+(2b)+(2c)+(2d) 2/: - 2006: 7,382 - 2007: 7,060 - Jan.-Jun. 2008: 1,749 - a. Shuttle Trade (Coverage): 2006: 6,409; 2007: 6,001; Jan.-Jun. 2008: 2,853 - b. Free Trade Zones Net (Coverage): 2006: 1,668; 2007: 2,092; Jan.-Jun. 2008: 1,249 - c. Nonmonetary gold (Classification): 2006: -637; 2007: -974; Jan.-Jun. 2008: -2,321 - d. Goods procured in ports by carriers (Classification): 2006: -59; 2007: -59; Jan.-Jun. 2008: -31 - Exports FOB (1)+(2) 2/: - 2006: 92,916 - 2007: 114,331 - Jan.-Jun. 2008: 70,624 - Adjustments in exports in percent (2)/(3): 2006: 7.9%; 2007: 6.2%; Jan.-Jun. 2008: 2.5% - Imports of goods in trade statistics 1/: - 2006: -139,576 - 2007: -170,063 - Jan.-Jun. 2008: -105,844 - Adjustments (5a)+(5b)+(5c)+(5d) 2/: - 2006: 9,491 - 2007: 13,923 - Jan.-Jun. 2008: 6,896 - a. Freight and freight insurance (Classification): 2006: 6,793; 2007: 9,960; Jan.-Jun. 2008: 5,659 - b. Free Trade Zones Net (Coverage): 2006: -1,284; 2007: -1,362; Jan.-Jun. 2008: -1,046 - c. Nonmonetary gold (Classification): 2006: 3,982; 2007: 5,325; Jan.-Jun. 2008: 2,283 - Imports FOB (4) + (5) 2/: - 2006: -130,085 - 2007: -156,140 - Jan.-Jun. 2008: -98,948 - Adjustments in exports in percent (5)/(6): 2006: -7.3%; 2007: -8.9%; Jan.-Jun. 2008: -7.0% - Trade Balance—Turkstat (1)+(4): - 2006: -54,041 - 2007: -62,791 - Jan.-Jun. 2008: -36,969 - Trade Balance—CBRT (3)+(6): - 2006: -37,168 - 2007: -41,809 - Jan.-Jun. 2008: -28,324 - Difference (7)-(8): - 2006: -16,873 - 2007: -20,982 - Jan.-Jun. 2008: -8,645 - Reclassification of freight and insurance: - 2006: -3,448 - 2007: -5,576 - Jan.-Jun. 2008: -3,278 - Impact current account (2a)+(2b)+(5a)+(5b)+(10): - 2006: 10,139 - 2007: 11,114 - Jan.-Jun. 2008: 5,437 - Current account (CBRT) 2/: - 2006: -31,896 - 2007: -37,679 - Jan.-Jun. 2008: -27,381 - Memorandum: - Exports (DOTS) 3/: 2006: 87,484; 2007: 111,128 - Imports (DOTS) 3/: 2006: -126,911; 2007: -152,889 - Trade Balance—DOTS (13)+(14): 2006: -39,427; 2007: -41,761 - Difference with CBRT data (8)-(15): 2006: 2,259; 2007: -48 - Note: Data on reinvested earning for the current year are estimated based on the FDI survey for the previous year until current-year data are obtained. ### Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs - Validation practices: - Banks’ foreign exchange records checked against independent sources: - financial press for high-value transactions; - public external debt stock data from the Treasury; - imports of gold from the Istanbul Gold Exchange Market; - banks’ balance sheets; - CBRT database for debt and equity securities. - Crosschecks and investigations: - Interest payments/receipts assessed relative to corresponding stock data. - Discrepancies between merchandise trade and associated financial flows from ITRS reviewed. - Freight earnings assessed relative to value/volume of trade flows. - Annual IIP compilation since 2002 facilitated reconciliation of BOP with stock changes. - Recommendation: regular detailed BOP/IIP reconciliation (tabular) could further strengthen validation. - Discrepancy monitoring: - CBRT monitors net errors and omissions via crosschecks between BOP and monetary statistics and between current and financial account. - No regular reconciliations conducted with foreign trade data reported by Turkey’s trading partners to IMF DOTS or creditors’ data in JEDH. ### Revision studies - Revisions are routine due to strict timetables for monthly BOP delivery. - Preliminary estimates used when periodicity/timeliness of some sources is insufficient or reporters miss deadlines. - Monitoring revisions considered normal practice; results of statistical adjustments considered in subsequent compilations. - Major revisions are well documented, including causes, methods to incorporate new data, and magnitude estimates. ### Serviceability: periodicity, timeliness, and consistency - Periodicity: - CBRT disseminates monthly BOP data on its website, exceeding the SDDS quarterly requirement. - IIP statistics disseminated annually by CBRT; Treasury disseminates external debt quarterly; Turkstat and CBRT disseminate merchandise trade and reserve template data monthly. - International reserves disseminated weekly by CBRT, exceeding monthly SDDS requirement. - In April 2008, CBRT initiated dissemination of a monthly IIP indicator with the same disaggregation as annual IIP data (seven-week timeliness for the monthly IIP indicator). - Timeliness: - Monthly BOP statistics disseminated six weeks after the reference month (SDDS prescribes three months). - IIP timelines: two quarters (rather than three quarters). - Merchandise trade timeliness: one month (rather than eight weeks). - Consistency within datasets: - Concepts, definitions, and classifications are the same across monthly, quarterly, and annual BOP statistics. - Net errors and omissions averaged 0.5 percent of GDP and 1.1 percent of total goods’ exports and imports over the past eight years, but have been unstable. - Consistency over time: - Detailed annual BOP available from 1984; historical series reconstructed when changes in sources/methods occur. - Major changes in economic trends announced and explained in monthly and quarterly CBRT reports. - Consistency with other frameworks: - BOP and IIP broadly consistent; minor differences mainly due to recording of equity and debt security assets and government bonds issued abroad and held by residents. - BOP and monetary statistics broadly consistent with regular reconciliation processes (official reserve assets and banks’ foreign assets/liabilities). - CBRT follows residency criteria (BPM5 and External Debt Guide); Treasury records general government debt securities by place of issuance. - End-2007 totals: - Total external debt based on residency: US$ 264.7 billion. - Total external debt based on place of issuance: US$ 247.1 billion. - Difference (US$ 17.7 billion) = government debt securities domestically issued but held by nonresidents (US$ 32.2 billion) minus government debt securities issued abroad and held by residents (US$ 14.5 billion). ### Box 4: Turkey—Total External Debt Position (Million of US dollars) - 1. According to Treasury (place of issuance) 1/: - 2006: 205,156 - 2007: 247,120 - June 08: 284,403 - 2. According to the CBRT (residency) 2/: - 2006: 219,366 - 2007: 264,712 - June 08: 300,560 - 3. Difference (CBRT-Treasury) (2-1): - 2006: 14,210 - 2007: 17,592 - June 08: 16,157 - a. Due to secondary market transactions (market value): 2006: 14,247; 2007: 17,684; June 08: 15,773 - b. Due to higher periodicity/timelines in IIP data: 2006: -37; 2007: -93; June 08: 384 - Additional total external debt (in%): 2006: 6.5%; 2007: 6.7%; June 08: 5.2% - Table 4a: External Debt - General Government - Bonds: - 4. Treasury data 1/: 2006: 36,347; 2007: 38,744; June 08: 39,203 - 5. CBRT adjustments: 2006: 14,247; 2007: 17,684; June 08: 15,773 - a. Issued abroad but held by residents 3/: 2006: -12,474; 2007: -14,482; June 08: -13,714 - b. Issued domestically but held by nonresidents 4/: 2006: 26,721; 2007: 32,166; June 08: 29,487 - 6. CBRT data 4/: 2006: 50,594; 2007: 56,428; June 08: 54,976 - Additional general government external debt (in %): 2006: 39.2%; 2007: 45.6%; June 08: 40.2% - Memorandum: - Bonds issued abroad held by resident / bonds issued abroad: 2006: 34.3%; 2007: 37.4%; June 08: 35.0% - Domestic bonds held by nonresident / total domestic bonds: 2006: 13.8%; 2007: 13.3%; June 08: 12.8% - Table 4b. Government Bonds Issued Abroad: - 1. Total issued abroad 1/: 2006: 36,347; 2007: 38,744; June 08: 39,203 - 2. Held by nonresidents: 2006: 23,873; 2007: 24,262; June 08: 25,489 - 3. Held by residents 2/ 3/: 2006: 12,474; 2007: 14,482; June 08: 13,714 - In percent (3)/(1): 2006: 34.3%; 2007: 37.4%; June 08: 35.0% - Note: Recorded as government's external debt by Treasury; excluded from government's external debt in IIP statistics (compiled by the CBRT-market value); data disseminated at the CBRT website (IIP dataset, Table 10). *Source: CBRT information provided to the 2008 ROSC mission.* ### 1. Banks na. 16,762 16,630 ### Balance of Payments Statistics ### Nonresident holdings and GDDI stock - Holdings by sector (values as presented): - 1. Banks: na. 16,762 16,630 - Other banks: na. 14,595 12,182 - Branches abroad: na. 2,167 4,448 - 2. Other financial sector: na. 14,904 11,424 - 3. Manufacturing, trade, and services: na. 205 1,079 - 4. Households: na. 295 354 - Total held by nonresidents: - 26721 32,166 29,487 - In percent (I)/(II): - 13.8% 13.3% 12.8% - Memorandum: - Total GDDI Stock (Million of TL) - Market Value: 273,489 280,658 282,412 - Total GDDI Stock (Million of USD): 193,538 240,970 230,785 ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - 4.3.1 Revisions follow a regular and transparent schedule. - In mid-November 2008, the CBRT publicized its revision policy for BOP and IIP data at the CBRT website. - When disseminating the current month data, BOP statistics for the current year and previous year are revised. - At the end of the current year, previous five years’ BOP data are subject to revision. - When large-scale revision is needed in any data that compose the BOP statistics, previous years' statistics would be revised by informing the public. - The revision policy for IIP data has also been recently publicized by the CBRT. - 4.3.2 Preliminary and/or revised data are clearly identified. - Preliminary data are identified in BOP data releases; however, better identification is needed when data are revised. - Revised data are disseminated with the same level of detail as previously published for the preliminary data. - 4.3.3 Studies and analyses of revisions are made public. - When major revisions to BOP statistics are made, the revisions are announced on the CBRT website. - Example (early 2004 revisions): - (i) changes in the recording of travel revenues and workers remittances due to the inclusion of survey data on expenditures made by Turkish citizens residing abroad with the corresponding adjustment in workers’ remittances; - (ii) the estimation of freight revenues and expenditures due to the identification of the residency of the operator and means of transportation. - A brief document explaining these revisions and identifying their impact in the current account of the BOP and in their corresponding components was posted on the CBRT website simultaneously. ### 5. Accessibility - 5.1 Data accessibility - 5.1.1 Presentation and comparability - BOP statistics are published according to the standard components of the BPM5, and with time series. - Data are published with various levels of detail, and presented in a clear manner, with charts and tables. - BOP data are disseminated on the CBRT website through the monthly report on Balance of Payment Developments, which includes 37 predefined Excel tables. - The CBRT Quarterly Bulletin includes time series data for BOP statistics (monthly data for the current and previous years and annual data for the previous 11 years) with a detailed breakdown of the BOP standard components. - Analyses of current period developments are included in: - monthly report Balance of Payments Developments (Statistics Department), - annual International Investment Position Report (Statistics Department), - quarterly Balance of Payments Report (Research Department). - 5.1.2 Dissemination media and format - Monthly BOP data releases that facilitate re-dissemination in the media. - Detailed and summary monthly data on the major components of the balance of payment are available, in both Turkish and English. - Current statistics and longer time data series accessible through the CBRT Electronic Data Delivery System (EDDS). - 5.1.3 Release schedule - An Advance Release Calendar (ARC) for the next 12 months is disseminated on the CBRT website and on Turkstat website. - The ARC is updated once a year in September. - 5.1.4 Equal access - BOP data are released simultaneously to all interested parties by posting them on the CBRT website. - The data available on the website are monthly and cumulative and are released punctually according to the preannounced schedule. - 5.1.5 Non-routine data - Nonpublished but nonconfidential sub-aggregated data are promptly made available upon request. - 5.2 Metadata accessibility - 5.2.1 Documentation on concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques - Document: Balance of Payments Methodology and Compilation Practice in Turkey available in Turkish and English on the CBRT website. - Document provides detailed explanation of concepts, definitions, recording principles, and description of main data sources and compilation practices for main BOP components. - CBRT disseminates a document for the compilation of IIP statistics, but it is less comprehensive than the BOP document. - Turkey’s BOP and IIP metadata are also posted on the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). Metadata on BOP and IIP statistics are updated regularly. - 5.2.2 Levels of detail - Explanatory notes on methodology are included in BOP and IIP publications prepared by the Statistics Department. - More specialized information notes have been prepared and made public, particularly when significant changes in methodology and compilation practices have occurred. - 5.3 Assistance to users - 5.3.1 Contact points - In line with the Information Act of 2005, the CBRT provides prompt and knowledgeable service and support to users of BOP statistics. - In mid-November 2008, the CBRT included on its website a contact point (e-mail, telephone, and address) for users of BOP and IIP statistics. - A contact point for IIP statistics has also been included in mid-November 2008. - Contact persons, address, telephones, facsimiles, and e-mails are also identified for BOP and IIP statistics on the IMF’s DSBB. - 5.3.2 Catalogs and charges - The CBRT website contains a list of publications and documents related to BOP statistics, including research papers (only in Turkish) written by staff of the BOP Division, that can be obtained free of charge. - All dissemination formats are also identified on the IMF’s DSBB. ### Recommendations - High priority - Improve the coverage of noncash disbursements for government loans and nonbank external deposit assets; the recording of bonds issued abroad held by residents, financial derivatives, and equity/debt security assets; and further develop/improve surveys on FDI (quarterly) and services. - Extend market valuation to all tradable debt instruments, and record on an accrual basis investment income in the BOP and external debt in the IIP. - Compile regularly a detailed BOP/IIP reconciliation table and publish a summary reconciliation table in 2009. - Allocate more staff resources to compilation of BOP and IIP for further expanding the set of supporting surveys and implementing the upcoming BPM6 in due course. - Other - Disseminate quarterly IIP data (as encouraged by SDDS) and comprehensive IIP metadata. - Assess regularly the consistency of BOP/IIP statistics, including with data from trading partners (DOTS) and creditors’ data (JEDH). ### Box: Progress in Implementing the 2001 ROSC Recommendations on BOP Statistics (selected achievements) - Recommendation 1: Compile and disseminate monthly BOP and annual IIP data according to BPM5 presentation. - Implementation: Fully Implemented in 2002. The CBRT is also publishing IIP monthly indicators in line with BPM5 since early 2008. - Recommendation 2: Provide advance notice of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques. - Implementation: Fully. Since 2002, the CBRT website includes “Announcements about methodological changes”; since mid-November 2008, includes “Advance notice”. - Recommendation 3: Disseminate the reserves data template including Dresdner deposits and contingent liabilities; record commercial banks’ deposits at the CBRT from reserve requirements denominated in foreign-currency as contingent liabilities. - Implementation: Fully Implemented in 2002. - Recommendation 4: Conduct surveys to supplement available data based on banks’ foreign exchange records. - Implementation: Fully. Several surveys developed and/or improved; scope for new/more frequent surveys subject to staff availability. - Recommendation 6 (selected subitems): - c. Financial derivatives: None. Partially included as portfolio investment. Work to be initiated in 2009. - d. Income transactions on accrual basis: None. Work to be initiated in 2009. - e. The c.i.f./f.o.b. factors for valuing imports: Fully. Data compiled monthly by Turkstat based on import documents rather than CBRT estimates. - Other progress highlights (selected): - a. Define direct investment according to the 10 percent ownership rule: Fully Implemented in 2004. - b. Record the financing of goods included in imports’ data subject to financial leasing as loans: Fully Implemented in May 2007. - i. Record reinvestment earnings for direct investment: Fully Implemented for inward FDI in 2003, through estimates based on FDI survey. - j. Record domestic debt securities held by nonresidents: Fully Implemented in 2001, through estimates based on stock data provided by custodian banks and adjusted for foreign exchange changes and market valuation. - k. Record equity securities issued by residents held by nonresidents: Fully. Since 2005, data obtained from the CRA; and from the ISE for 2001-2004. - l. Record real estate transactions of nonresidents in Turkey: Fully. Since 2003, data are recorded under direct investment (liability). ### Data Quality Assessment Framework (Table 5) — Summary of Results (July 2003) - Compiling Agency: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey - Key to symbols: NA = Not Applicable; O = Practice Observed; LO = Practice Largely Observed; LNO = Practice Largely Not Observed; NO = Practice Not Observed; SDDS = Complies with SDDS Criteria - Selected assessment comments: - 2.4 Basis for recording: Most items, incl. investment income, compiled on cash basis. - 4.2 Consistency: No regular data reconciliation with GFS/national accounts. - Various elements across prerequisites, assurances of integrity, methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility are assessed with the symbol key as presented in Table 5. *Source: CBRT, Statistics Department.* ### 0.1 Legal and institutional environment ### 0.1 Legal and institutional environment ### 0.1.1 Responsibility for collecting, processing, and disseminating statistics - Monetary statistics are collected, compiled, and disseminated by the Statistics Department (SD) of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) under the terms and conditions set out in the 1970 CBRT Law No. 1211 (amended on April 25, 2001 by Law No. 4651). The Law can be accessed at http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/banka/law.html. - Article 4 (II.g) of the CBRT Law: responsibility to monitor financial markets, request necessary information, and gather statistical information from banks, other financial institutions, and organizations authorized to regulate and supervise these institutions. - Article 43 of the CBRT Law authorizes the CBRT to: - (i) directly request and collect all statistical information relating to the financial system and other statistical information necessary for the surveillance of developments in the economy and the balance of payments, from banks, other financial institutions, and persons; - (ii) directly request information, balance sheets, and reports of banks, other financial institutions, and persons, as well as to investigate and supervise the accuracy of this information; - (iii) publish statistical information. - The Statistical Law No. 5429 of November 10, 2005 reinforces CBRT’s responsibility for compiling and disseminating monetary statistics and places official statistics under Turkstat supervision. The 5-year Official Statistical Program defines monetary statistics as official statistics under the responsibility of the CBRT and monitors consistency with international standards, future plans, and the advance release calendar. - Organizational responsibilities: - The Monetary and Financial Data Division (MFDD) in the SD: research on statistical methodology; data collection, verification, processing, compilation, and dissemination of balance of payments and monetary and financial statistics; maintaining harmonization with international standards and the Official Statistical Program. - Source forms: “Banks’ Supervisory Reporting Package” developed by the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA); all report forms are based on the Uniform Chart of Accounts for Banks (UCA). - For monetary statistics compilation, trial balance form “MZ600A” and two additional forms (ST400A and VK100A) are collected from banks and verified by the MFDD. - Source data for MMFs issuing “Type B Liquid Funds” are obtained from the Capital Market Board's website (www.spk.gov.tr). - CBRT data are obtained from the CBRT’s Accounting Department. ### 0.1.2 Data sharing and coordination among data-producing agencies - CBRT is solely responsible for compiling and disseminating monetary statistics; source data collected from the “Supervisory Reporting Package.” - Collaboration with BRSA when changes to report forms or instructions are needed. - In preparing and disseminating SDDS-related data, Turkstat, the State Planning Organization, and the Treasury are also involved; meetings held between agencies when necessary. - Internal CBRT arrangements ensure information flow between Accounting, Markets, Banking and Financial Institutions, and the SD; timely information provided to MFDD. - Specific compilation responsibilities: - Money market interest rates and government securities statistics: Markets Department. - International reserves: Markets and Accounting Departments. - Reserve requirements and deposit and lending rates: Banking and Financial Institutions Department. ### 0.1.3 Confidentiality of individual reporters’ data - Confidentiality established in the CBRT Law, the Statistics Law, and the Official Statistical Program. - Article 43 of the CBRT Law: forbids publication or disclosure by the CBRT of any statistical information having a private and personal nature to an official authority or private body other than the BRSA; statistical information shall not be used for purposes other than statistics and shall not be considered as evidence. - Article 13 of the Statistics Law reinforces confidentiality. - Section 3 in Chapter 1 of the 5-year Official Statistical Program requires institutions producing official statistics to perform duties in accordance with statistical confidentiality. - Article 35 of the CBRT Law: CBRT staff obliged to observe secrecy of matters pertaining to the CBRT or persons and institutions dealing with the CBRT; obligation continues after staff leave the CBRT. CBRT staff are subject to the Code of Obligations and liable for damages they cause to the CBRT in connection with their duties. - Access controls: - Only authorized SD staff access individual banks’ data prior to aggregation and publication. - Procedures in place to consolidate and aggregate data to prevent individual disclosure. - Internal database access limited to authorized staff; computers are password protected. ### 0.1.4 Statistical reporting mandate and measures to encourage response - Legal authority to collect source data emanates from 1970 CBRT Law, Article 43: persons requested to provide statistical information are obliged to submit it accurately within the period and in the forms determined by the CBRT; CBRT authorized to investigate and supervise accuracy and request additional information/documents. - CBRT instructions and guidelines of November 16, 2007: monthly report forms required to be submitted to the CBRT within 23 business days after the end of the reference month. - Article 68 (III.b) of the CBRT Law: failure to furnish documents/information as described is punishable by a fine. Sanction reinforced by the Statistics Law (Article 54). - In practice: no notable problems in collecting data from banks and other financial institutions; reporting banks contact SD for technical support. - The Banking Association of Turkey used to request detailed monetary data formats; MFDD provided data in those formats, enhancing banks’ understanding of monetary statistics. These detailed-format data are also published in the CBRT’s Weekly Press Bulletin. ### 0.2 Resources #### 0.2.1 Staffing, facilities, computing resources, and financing - MFDD staffing and roles: - Total MFDD staff: 24. - 10 professionals exclusively devoted to the compilation of monetary statistics. - 11 staff responsible for checking data and maintaining report flow. - 3 professionals focused on statistical concepts and methodology and improving coverage and accuracy of monetary data. - Training and experience: - Since 2001, 7 CBRT staff attended IMF training courses on monetary statistics—4 attended courses in Washington, D.C. and 3 at Joint-Vienna Institute. All trained staff have been involved in monetary statistics work in MFDD. - Employment in SD is competitive; most staff have university degrees in economics and 6 staff have postgraduate degrees in economics and/or finance from overseas universities. - Opportunities provided for on-the-job and external training (IMF, Bank for International Settlements, OECD, Eurostat, ECB, seminars by other central banks); staff turnover is low; qualified staff can attend postgraduate courses overseas. - Computing resources and data collection: - Data collection system is highly computerized. - All reporting financial institutions submit returns through the Electronic Data Transfer System (EDTS), which performs validation checks before releasing data to the next production stage. - Daily and weekly data are sent directly to the CBRT through e-mail. - Financing: - Funding for monetary statistics is included in the overall CBRT budget and is not separately identified. - Funding has been broadly adequate to perform required tasks. - CBRT budget prepared and executed on an annual basis. #### 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources - CBRT programs subject to budget considerations and performance assessments; budgeting done annually by the Board of Directors every December. - Departments identify budget needs; Board allocates budgets. - Accounting Department measures cost-effectiveness quarterly for each unit. - Human Resources Department (HRD) conducts regular reviews to improve work within units. - New technology tested by computer and system analysis experts. - SD management conducts meetings to enhance policy vision and staff understanding. - Project in place to measure staff efficiency and verify job descriptions; staff performance reviewed once a year by immediate supervisor and submitted to HRD. - Job descriptions defined by HRD; SD reports activities monthly to HRD. - Training needs projected and submitted annually to HRD; staff provided opportunities to attend available training. - Staff’s knowledge of the new methodology considered adequate for compiling monetary statistics based on the IMF’s Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM). ### 0.3 Relevance #### 0.3.1 Monitoring relevance and practical utility of statistics - CBRT invites user comments and questions via its website; evaluates reasonable comments for data availability and cost-benefit analysis; may update or add new data series. - Information Access Law (approved October 9, 2003): public institutions required to respond to user queries within 15 days. - Foreign and domestic users can send queries about monetary statistics directly to MFDD or CBRT’s Public Relations Department and will receive responses within 15 days. - MFDD staff participate in meetings and seminars organized by international organizations to stay abreast of developments in monetary statistics and assess compliance with international standards. ### 0.4 Other quality management #### 0.4.1 Processes to focus on quality - Statistical Council (established by the Statistical Law under Turkstat supervision) monitors implementation of the 5-year Official Statistical Program; the governor of the CBRT is a Council member; Council meets at least once a year. - CBRT exercises quality control at every stage of data collection, production, and dissemination; staff responsibility for quality is made clear; data quality emphasized during new staff training. - Verification and validation: - All SD levels participate in review of data during processing and prior to publication. - Source data submitted to MFDD are crosschecked for accuracy; discrepancies investigated. - Data reporting practices set by MFDD in line with UCA sector and asset classification and international standards. - Validation procedures include visual bank-by-bank plausibility checks; MFDD consults reporting institutions to verify misclassifications. - External auditing company audits CBRT financial statements. - MFDD monitors developments in financial markets and improves methodological soundness of data; MFDD staff participate in OECD’s Financial Statistics Working Group (member) and Eurostat’s Working Party on Financial Accounts (observer) to keep abreast of developments. - Turkey became a SDDS subscriber on August 8, 1996. #### 0.4.2 Processes to monitor the quality of the statistical program - MFDD and BRSA routinely verify that ODCs’ data reporting practices are consistent with established guidelines and UCA classifications. - MFDD reviews data submissions and informally contacts reporting institutions in case of errors or nonreceipt; written communications used depending on gravity. - No formal user surveys undertaken; users can contact MFDD via website or phone and will receive responses within 15 days. - No external body outside CBRT provides guidance on quality of monetary statistics or improvement strategies; staff participation in training has strengthened capacity and contributed to data quality improvement. #### 0.4.3 Processes to deal with quality considerations in planning the statistical program - SD working group monitors financial market developments and improves methodological soundness considering new initiatives and financial system developments. - Recognition of tradeoffs between data quality and timeliness; production fully automated with checks and validations at every production stage. - Timeliness prioritized in line with SDDS; some data (particularly weekly data) may be published as provisional in event of reporting delays. - Users’ comments on relevance/usefulness taken into account via website. - Official Statistical Program prepared by Turkstat in consultation with CBRT for monetary, financial, and balance of payments statistics; Program monitors consistency with international standards, future plans, and advance release calendar. ### 1. Assurances of integrity #### 1.1 Professionalism - Independence and impartiality: - 1970 CBRT Law provides for CBRT independence. Article 1: CBRT established in the form of a joint stock company with the exclusive privilege of issuing banknotes in Turkey and vested with powers/duties in the Law. - Article 4 (III.c): CBRT shall enjoy absolute autonomy in exercising powers and carrying out duties under its own responsibility. - Statistics Law (Article 4) and the Official Statistical Program reinforce impartiality. - Articles 25: CBRT governor appointed for a term of five years by decree of the Council of Ministers; appointment may be renewed. - Article 43: CBRT authority to publish necessary statistical information. - Article 63: CBRT shall issue a bulletin announcing a brief statement of accounts as of the end of each week and shall also publish it in the Official Gazette. - In practice, provisions support statistical work and statistics are found to follow strict technical criteria and be free of interference from other agencies. - Professional hiring and promotion: - Technical expertise, educational background, experience, and knowledge of monetary themes are prerequisites for employment. - Staff promotion based on professional competence determined in annual performance review. - Professionalism promoted via training courses, conferences, and meetings with other compilers and international organizations. - Since 2001, 7 CBRT staff attended IMF training courses on monetary statistics; all involved in MFDD compilation work. - Source data and methodological choices: - Choices of sources and techniques informed solely by statistical considerations and in line with MFSM and 1995 ESA. - Principal sources: monthly accounting records of CBRT; monthly report forms from the “Supervisory Reporting Package”; source data for “Type B Liquid Funds” MMFs from the Capital Market Board's website. - Source data broadly adequate for compiling monetary statistics based on MFSM methodology. - Right to comment on misuse: - SD monitors press and other publications relating to monetary statistics and comments on erroneous interpretations if deemed significant. - SD provides explanatory notes in publications, website, and press releases to prevent misinterpretation. - Footnotes in statistical tables indicate changes in compilation methodology to aid users. *Source: _cr09286 - 0.1 Legal and institutional environment* ### 1.2 Transparency ### 1.2 Transparency ### Availability of terms and statistical dissemination - The CBRT Law, which constitutes the base for the compilation and dissemination of monetary statistics, is available in Turkish and English on the CBRT website. - A data dissemination calendar is posted on the CBRT’s website at http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/veriyay/takvimeng.html and on Turkstat’s webpage in the context of the 5-year Official Statistical Program. - An advance release calendar for SDDS data categories is disseminated at Turkstat’s website at http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/arastirmaveprojeler/turcat/body/sdds.htm. - The notice to this effect is also provided in the CBRT’s Quarterly Bulletin. - The CBRT’s statistical publications and website provide address and telephone numbers of the respective CBRT department for additional information. ### Internal governmental access prior to release - No officials outside the CBRT have access to monetary data prior to their release to the public. ### Identification of statistical products - The SD is identified as the source of the monetary statistics published in the CBRT’s Quarterly Bulletin and in the monthly “Money and Banking Statistics” electronic publication. - The CBRT requests attribution when its statistics are used or reproduced. ### Advance notice of methodological changes - Major changes in methodology are announced in the "Announcement" section of the CBRT’s website at the time the changes are introduced. - Notices about changes are also disseminated in the Weekly Press Bulletin and in the Electronic Data Delivery System (EDDS) section of the CBRT’s website under “What's New.” - “Announcements on Methodological Changes” are disseminated through the website under Money and Banking Statistics in the publications section. - If changes are minor, footnotes or explanatory notes are provided in the relevant table or section of the Quarterly Bulletin and the monthly Money and Banking Statistics electronic publication. - Advance notice is given only in the case of major changes. *1.3 Ethical standards* ### Staff conduct and ethics guidance - The Code of Conduct for the Staff of the CBRT provides broad ethical guidelines for employees of the CBRT. - Every new CBRT staff joins a one-week training program about the fundamental duties and powers of the CBRT and each department. - New staff members are informed about the guidelines for staff behavior, including cases that lead to disciplinary actions ranging from warning to dismissal. - Guidelines regarding secrecy and responsibility for staff are provided in the CBRT Law (Article 35). ### 2. Methodological soundness ### 2.1 Concepts and definitions — conformity with international standards - The concepts and definitions used by the CBRT in the compilation of monetary statistics are broadly based on the MFSM as well as the 1995 ESA. - This represents significant progress compared with the findings of the 2001 data ROSC, which found that the monetary statistics were compiled, in general, based on the IMF’s Draft Guide to Money and Banking Statistics in International Financial Statistics (December 1984). - Three measures of money (M1, M2, M3) are calculated and used by the CBRT for policy purposes. - M1 consists of currency in circulation and demand deposits in domestic and foreign currencies of resident other financial corporations, public nonfinancial corporations, and private sector with the CBRT and ODCs. - M2 equals M1 plus time deposits in domestic and foreign currencies of resident other financial corporations, public nonfinancial corporations, and private sector. - M3 equals M2 plus funds received from Repo transactions that the DCs conduct with resident other financial corporations, public nonfinancial corporations, and private sector, plus “Type B Liquid Funds” issued by MMFs. - The ODCs defined by the CBRT include DMBs, investment and development banks (IDBs), participation banks (PBs), and MMFs, which issue “Type B Liquid Funds” with a residual maturity of less than 90 days and can be liquidated at any time without fees. - The CBRT compiles and disseminates the monetary survey, which is the consolidation of the sectoral balance sheets (SBS) for the monetary authorities and the ODCs. - The SBS for the monetary authorities covers the CBRT’s accounts and two accounts rerouted from the Treasury—coin issue and IMF loans to the Treasury. - The SBS of the monetary authorities is similar in scope to the SBS for the central bank as defined in the MFSM. - The CBRT compiles and disseminates the SBS for the DMBs, IDBs, PBs, and “Type B Liquid Funds” MMFs as well as an aggregated SBS for the ODC subsector as defined above, but excluding “Type B Liquid Funds” MMFs. - The CBRT compiles and disseminates a number of detailed tables of major balance sheet items with breakdown by instrument and by sector; individual tables do not cover all MFSM details but combined they provide most details though some different terminologies are used. - The CBRT has implemented the Standardized Report Forms (SRFs) for MFS, which have been submitted to STA on a monthly basis since November 2005. - The SRFs have been compiled from the existing source data; no additional source data or report forms were necessary. - As a result, Turkey has been included in International Financial Statistics Supplement from March 2007. - The SRFs contain sectoral and financial instrument breakdown fully consistent with the MFSM. - The CBRT is working to derive the sectoral balance sheets and surveys for the central bank, the ODC subsector and each subgroup of the ODCs, as well as the DC survey from the SRF-based data. - The SRF-based monetary statistics are not disseminated in the CBRT’s publications; the CBRT plans to improve the sectoral and financial instrument breakdown in published data to present formats closer to the MFSM. ### 2.2 Scope — coverage consistency - According to the Banking Law of November 1, 2005 No.5411, DMBs, IDBs, and PBs meet the definition of “bank” as prescribed in the Law. - DMBs are financial institutions operating primarily for the purpose of accepting deposits and providing loans on their own accounts. - PBs are financial institutions operating primarily for the purpose of raising funds through “special current accounts” and “participation accounts” as well as providing loans. - IDBs are financial institutions operating primarily for the purpose of providing loans and/or to fulfill the duties assigned thereto by their special laws; IDBs can raise funds by issuing debt securities as well as conducting Repo transactions; they are not allowed to accept deposits or participation funds. - MMFs issuing “Type B Liquid Funds” are entities that acquire money market instruments with a residual maturity of less than 90 days and which can be liquidated at any time without fees. - Branches of foreign banks operating in Turkey are also defined as banks. - In the MFSM, the ODCs subsector consists of all resident financial corporations (except the central bank) and quasi-corporations mainly engaged in financial intermediation; their liabilities consist of deposits or financial instruments that are included in the national definition of broad money. - In Turkey: - DMBs, PBs, IDBs, and “Type B Liquid Funds” MMFs issue liabilities—demand deposits, time deposits, “Type B Liquid Funds”, and funds received from Repo transactions—that are included in the national definition of broad money (M3). - Hence, DMBs, PBs, IDBs, and “Type B Liquid Funds” MMFs comprise the ODC subsector as defined in the MFSM. - No other financial institutions operating in Turkey issue liabilities included in the measure of M3. - The DCs sector comprises the CBRT, 50 banks—33 DMBs, 13 IDBs, and 4 PBs—and 51 “Type B Liquid Funds” MMFs. - Of the 50 banks, 22 are resident branches or subsidiaries of foreign banks. - The monetary survey disseminated by the CBRT is the consolidation of the SBS of the monetary authorities and the ODCs and is similar in scope to the DC survey as defined in the MFSM. - Data for the ODCs and the CBRT, covering their headquarters and all domestic branches, are included in the monetary statistics. - A bank currently in liquidation continues to be included in monetary statistics. - The scope of the monetary statistics compiled by the CBRT is complete and consistent with the guidelines set out in the MFSM; this complete coverage is also used in compiling the SRFs. ### 2.3 Classification/sectorization — alignment and issues - The residency criterion is used to distinguish between residents and nonresidents in line with the BPM5, and is consistent with the concept of residence recommended in the MFSM. - Branches of foreign banks in Turkey are regarded as residents; branches of domestic banks abroad are classified as nonresidents. - The sectorization used in the source data for the ODCs—Forms ST400A and VK100A—is based on the “Institutional Sector List” (ISL) prepared by the CBRT. - Form MZ600A issued by the BRSA and the source data for the CBRT have breakdowns in line with the ISL. - The ISL was updated in March 2007 in consultation with Turkstat, MOF, and Treasury. - The updated ISL is broadly in line with the classification in the 1995 ESA and the MFSM and was transmitted to the reporting ODCs as guidance. - According to the ISL, resident institutional units are classified into: - general government disaggregated into central government; local governments, and social security institutions; - central bank; - DMBs; - IDBs; - PBs; - nonbank financial institutions disaggregated into insurance companies and pension funds, other financial intermediaries, and financial auxiliaries; - nonfinancial public enterprises; and - private sector disaggregated into nonfinancial companies, individual corporations, households, and non-profit institutions serving households. - Identification challenges and adjustments: - For deriving the ODC subsector from the ISL, there is a need to identify “Type B Liquid Funds” MMFs, which are classified together with other mutual funds under other financial intermediaries. - Although “private sector” in the source data is broken down into “private nonfinancial corporations” and “households” as recommended in the MFSM, such breakdown is not provided in the monetary survey and the sectoral accounts (similar to SBS) of DMBs, IDBs, and PBs published by the CBRT. The CBRT disseminates detailed tables that include the private sector breakdown. - To facilitate reporting of transactions with public nonfinancial corporations (PNFCs), a list of PNFCs was prepared by the MFDD and included in the ISL and circulated to reporting entities as guidance. - The MFDD acknowledged that the coverage of central government is not fully consistent with the definition used by the MOF (e.g., MFDD classifies revolving fund administrations (RFAs) as PNFCs, while the MOF includes them in the central government). - A working group of CBRT, Treasury, MOF, SPO, and Turkstat developed a common list of general government disaggregated into central government, local governments, and social security institutions; the list was published in February 2009 as a Communiqué and will be used by all data producing agencies. - The list of PNFCs is maintained by the Treasury and any changes made by the Treasury will be reflected in the CBRT’s ISL to ensure consistency. - Instrument classification differences and data gaps: - In the MFSM, financial assets are classified into (i) monetary gold and SDRs (for central bank only), (ii) currency, (iii) deposits disaggregated into transferable and other deposits, (iv) securities other than shares, (v) loans, (vi) shares and other equity, (vii) insurance technical reserves, (viii) financial derivatives, (ix) other accounts receivable/payable. - In the source data used by the CBRT, assets and liabilities are classified into (i) currency, (ii) deposits, (iii) credit, (iv) securities disaggregated into (a) bonds and bills, (b) share, and (c) “Type B Liquid Funds” issued by MMFs. - Financial derivatives are not separately identified; banks report financial derivatives under “unclassified assets” or “unclassified liabilities”, hence they are included in other items (net) in the monetary survey. - Banks’ positions vis-à-vis “Type B Liquid Funds” MMFs are not separately available as the current report forms do not have separate lines for these MMFs; positions with “Type B Liquid Funds” MMFs and other mutual funds are reported under the same subsector (other financial intermediaries). - The term “credit” is used instead of “loan”. - Shares and “Type B Liquid Funds” issued by MMFs are separately reported, but classified under securities. - In the SRFs, shares are reclassified as “share and other equities” and “Type B Liquid Funds” are classified as part of broad money in the monetary statistics, consistent with the MFSM. - Published data limitations: - In the data published by the CBRT, a more limited instrument breakdown is used (e.g., only “credit”, “bonds and bills”, and “participations” are separately identified in the sectoral accounts of the DMBs, PBs, and IDBs). - Some major aggregates—such as foreign assets, foreign liabilities, domestic interbank claims and liabilities, claims on other financial institutions and nonbank financial institutions—are not disaggregated by financial instrument in the main published tables; instrument breakdowns of some of these aggregates are available in the detailed tables of balance sheet items published by the CBRT. - Treatment of Repo and repurchase operations: - Securities repurchase operations conducted by the CBRT are recorded as outright sales of securities in the CBRT balance sheet. - For statistical purposes, the MFDD treats securities repurchase operations as collateralized loans and makes adjustments accordingly; this treatment is consistent with the MFSM recommendations. - Repo transactions are treated as collateralized loans consistent with the MFSM. *Source: _cr09286 - 1.2 Transparency* ### 2.4 Basis for recording ### _cr09286 - 2.4 Basis for recording ### 2.4.1 Market prices are used to value flows and stocks - General recommendation of the MFSM: valuation of financial assets and liabilities on the basis of market prices or market-price equivalents (fair values). - Exception: valuation of loans based on creditors’ outstanding claims without adjustment for expected loan losses (outstanding principal plus any accrued interest = book value of a loan). - Monetary gold and nonmonetary gold: valued on the basis of the market price of gold. - Holding gains and losses from changes in market values (or fair values) recorded separately in a revaluation account. - All stocks and flows denominated in foreign currency: converted to national currency values at the midpoint between the buying and selling rates of exchange. - CBRT statutory financial statements prepared under Turkish Commercial Code, Tax Legislation, and CBRT Law: - Acquisition costs used for initial recognition. - Subsequent valuation: securities other than shares and assets in the form of shares and other equities recorded at fair value. - Loans and deposits: valued at nominal value. - Foreign-currency denominated accounts: converted into local currency using the CBRT’s end-period buying exchange rate. - CBRT’s exchange rates: determined based on the average of rates as quoted by banks in the interbank foreign exchange market (market-based rates). - Gold holdings (monetary and nonmonetary): revalued quarterly (instead of monthly) using the averaged international gold prices. - ODCs: IFRS rules used since November 2006; valuation generally consistent with MFSM with exceptions: - Under IFRS, securities other than shares in held-to-maturity and equity shares in available-for-sale can be valued at amortized cost, but in Turkey these two types are valued at fair value in line with MFSM. - Foreign-currency denominated accounts converted using the market buying exchange rate. - Loan valuation and provisions: - In line with MFSM, loan valuation is not adjusted for expected loan losses. - Provisions for expected loan losses recorded as separate negative entries on the asset side of the CBRT’s balance sheet. - For compiling monetary statistics, gross data on loans are used in line with MFSM. - Inconsistent with MFSM: value of loans and deposits in monetary statistics comprise only the outstanding principal amount; accrued interest is not included. - Accrued interest is included in the value of loans and deposits in the SRFs. - Revaluation accounting: - For the CBRT, unrealized gains and losses from currency revaluation and from price and currency revaluation of gold recorded as unrealized gains and losses in the “Revaluation Account” as per Article 61 of the CBRT Law, in line with MFSM recommendations. - When gains and losses become realized, they are transferred to the income statement. - For ODCs, IFRS rules on recording unrealized gains and losses are followed. - MFSM recommendation: compile data on stocks and on each of the three flow components: transactions, revaluations, and other changes in the volume of assets. - In Turkey, banks do not provide financial information on flows; MFDD derives flow data from stock data on the CBRT and the ODCs for 1995 ESA Financial Accounts purposes. ### 2.4.2 Recording is done on an accrual basis - Source data for compiling monetary statistics are recorded on accrual basis in accordance with MFSM accrual accounting principles. - Accounting standards in Turkey require interest be accrued on a monthly basis. - Accrued interest due but not yet paid on financial instruments are not incorporated into the outstanding amount of the financial asset or liability. - Accrued interest on both assets and liabilities (except financial instruments shown at fair value) recorded into separate accrual accounts under “other assets” and “other liabilities,” respectively. - For compiling the SRFs, accrued interest is incorporated in the outstanding value of the underlying instruments in line with the MFSM. - Transactions generally recorded at the time the transaction occurs in line with MFSM; recorded by simultaneous electronic recording. ### 2.4.3 Grossing/netting procedures are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices - In line with MFSM, assets and liabilities of the CBRT, banks, and other financial institutions are collected and compiled on a gross basis. - Claims on particular transactors are not netted against liabilities to those transactors. - Data presented on a net basis (e.g., “Foreign assets (net)” and “Claims on central government (net)” in the monetary survey) are also shown with the underlying gross data. - For sectoral balance sheets of the CBRT and the ODCs: - Financial assets and liabilities aggregated into major categories (e.g., claims classified by debtors and deposits classified by creditors). - Monetary survey obtained by canceling out all outstanding claims and liabilities between the CBRT and ODCs and between the ODCs. - Interbank claims and liabilities are netted in the monetary survey. *Italicized source: _cr09286 - 2.4 Basis for recording* ### 4. Serviceability ### 4. Serviceability ### 4.1 Periodicity and timeliness - The analytical accounts of the monetary authorities are disseminated on a weekly basis and monthly basis, and those of the banking sector on a monthly basis, in line with SDDS requirements. - The monetary survey, which is similar to the depository corporations survey is monthly. - The weekly and monthly analytical accounts of the CBRT are disseminated within one week and one month, respectively, following the end of the reference period, in line with the specifications of the SDDS. - Turkey has taken a flexibility option on the timeliness of the analytical accounts of the banking sector due to a delay in producing data on the ODCs. - Turkey has an extensive branch banking system (8672 domestic bank branches, as of June 2008), which makes it very difficult to meet the timeliness requirement. - Banks must complete all 37 monthly report forms in the “Supervisory Reporting Package” before they can submit them to the BRSA and the CBRT. - Under the flexibility option: - The analytical accounts of the banking sector are disseminated within two months (except December, January, and February) after the end of the reference period. - Data for December and January are disseminated no later than 4 months after the end of the reference period. - Data for February are disseminated no later than 3 months after the end of the reference period. ### 4.2 Consistency - CBRT’ and ODCs’ records for claims on, and liabilities to, each other show discrepancies due to differences in the time of recording financial transactions and possible misclassification of “Type B Liquid Funds” MMFs by banks as other financial corporations. - Example: The total of required reserves reported in the sectoral accounts of the DMBs, IDBs and PBs was considerably larger than that reported in the sectoral accounts of the monetary authorities—by almost TRY 2 billion (12.7 percent) for June 2008. - SRFs and the monetary statistics published by the CBRT show discrepancies mainly due to different treatment of accrued interest: - SRFs: value of the underlying instruments, where applicable, includes accrued interest. - CBRT monetary statistics: value of the underlying instruments does not include accrued interest. - Presentation differences hinder reconciliation: - Components under “Claims on Banks” in the sectoral accounts of the monetary authorities have different descriptions from “Liabilities to Central Bank” in the sectoral accounts of the commercial banks. - Deposit liabilities in the sectoral accounts of the commercial banks and in the table “DMB Deposits by Type” are not reconcilable. - Time series consistency and revisions: - The monetary statistics database is maintained by the SD. - Consistent time series are available from the EDDS of the CBRT website as far back as January 1986. - When changes in source data, methodology or statistical techniques are introduced, all time series are revised. - Main breaks and discontinuities in the time series are explained in attached notes/footnotes. - Discontinued series are presented in the “Archives” section of the EDDS. - Cross-framework consistency: - The MFDD often checks consistency with balance of payments statistics (international investment position and international reserves). - In general, data on official international reserves are consistent with data on monetary gold and convertible foreign assets reported in the sectoral accounts of the monetary authorities. - There are some inconsistencies between published fiscal data and monetary data on government accounts with the banking system. - Consistency checks with GFS are rarely done. - Institutional response: - “The Working Group on 1995 ESA Financial Accounts” established in 2008 by the SD in coordination with the MOF, Treasury, and Turkstat experts is analyzing methodology for reporting data on general government and classifications used in government finance and monetary statistics to improve data consistency. ### 4.3 Revision policy and practice - Weekly data for banks are provisional; monthly data are final subject to revision. - Banks may send revisions in their subsequent return in case errors are made; such revisions are rare. - If revisions to the weekly data are large, the published weekly data will be replaced with the revised data; otherwise no revisions will be made to the published weekly data. - Weekly provisional data are disseminated on the website of the CBRT with appropriate footnotes and on a predetermined schedule. - Revisions due to major changes in statistical methodology are explained in the related publication. - Monthly data on the CBRT are final. - Identification of preliminary/revised data: - Weekly published data for banks are provisional and marked with asterisk (*). - Monthly data are final, but subject to revision. - Revised data are disseminated in the same way, and at the same level of detail, as the data first published. - Studies and analyses of revisions: - In case of major revisions, the MFDD undertakes studies to measure the magnitude of the revisions and to analyze the source of revisions. - Some of this information is provided in footnotes under the statistical tables and under “What’s New” in the EDDS of the CBRT’s website. - The MFDD has made public comprehensive studies and analyses of revisions beginning in mid–December 2008 under the Publications section of the website for “Money and Banking Statistics.” ### 5. Accessibility #### 5.1 Data accessibility - Presentation and comparability: - CBRT presentation facilitates interpretation. - On the CBRT’s website, monthly data for the monetary survey with breakdown by subsectoral or subgroup components—the CBRT, commercial banks, PBs, and IDBs—as well as detailed tables of major balance sheet items are presented in a time series format beginning January 1986 (except data for the PBs that are available beginning December 2005). - In the Quarterly Bulletin, the same data series are available on a monthly basis, and on an annual basis beginning in 2002. - Money and Banking Statistics are available on the website on a monthly basis in the same format as in the Quarterly Bulletin. - Each individual table published by the CBRT does not cover all the details as presented in the MFSM-based SBS, but combined tables provide most details albeit with some different terminologies. - Users can derive surveys for the CBRT and for the ODC subsector from either the published monetary survey or monetary sector analytical accounts. - Notes accompany tables to explain changes to methodology. - Some breakdowns do not allow easy comparison of related data in different tables (example provided regarding “Claims on Banks” vs “Liabilities to Central Bank” breakdowns). - Dissemination media and format: - Monetary statistics are disseminated in hardcopy publication as well as on the CBRT website. - Weekly Press Bulletin is available as a bilingual publication (Turkish and English) every Thursday afternoon; hard copies in limited quantity are sent free of charge to some public institutions and media. - Subscription requests addressed to Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi, İletişim ve Dış İlişkiler Genel Müdürlügü, Kamuoyu ile İlişkiler Müdürlügü, İstiklal Cad. No:10 06100 Ulus, Ankara, Turkey. - Disseminated data and websites (as stated in the source): - Weekly data for monetary aggregates and total domestic credit and at the EDDS are released simultaneously to all interested parties by issuing the Weekly Press Bulletin at http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/basin/bbultmainyeni.html - Daily analytical accounts of the CBRT are disseminated at CBRT website and weekly data are released in the "Weekly Press Bulletin". - The time series of weekly data are simultaneously disseminated at the CBRT website in the EDDS http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/cbt-uk.html. - The monthly data covering all the prescribed components are published in the EDDS under Periodic Publications at http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/evds/yayin/parabank/parabankanamenuing.html and Quarterly Bulletin at http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/ucaylik/ucayanamenuing.html - Release schedule: - Monetary statistics are released according to an advance release calendar giving a year-ahead notice of release dates. - The calendar is posted on the CBRT’s website http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/veriyay/takvimeng.html and is disseminated on Turkstat’s webpage in the context of the Official Statistical Program. - It is also available on the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). - A notice is published in the CBRT’s Quarterly Bulletin. - Simultaneous availability: - Data are disseminated simultaneously to all interested parties, first on the CBRT's website, then in the CBRT’s publications. - The CBRT’s EDDS is a dynamic and interactive data dissemination system; data are presented in Turkish and English and require no additional hardware or software. - Unpublished data on request: - Unpublished and nonconfidential data are made available upon request free of charge with the authority of senior staff of the MFDD. - If there is substantial demand, unpublished data may be disseminated in publications with the permission of the Vice-Governor, who is responsible for the SD. #### 5.2 Metadata accessibility - Documentation: - Summary methodology for the analytical accounts of the banking sector and the central bank, including concepts, classifications, data sources, characteristics, and definitions are available in the SDDS framework posted on the IMF’s DSBB. - Metadata pages are scrutinized and updated regularly. - Most statistical tables published by the CBRT contain footnotes that explain changes to the data series. - Brief explanations of major methodology changes are disseminated in the EDDS under "What’s New" and in footnotes of statistical tables in both the EDDS and the Quarterly Bulletin. - Comprehensive metadata describing concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques are available from the CBRT’s website starting in mid–December 2008 at http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/evds/yayin/parabank/methodology.pdf. - Levels of detail: - The summary methodology in the SDDS framework and the notes accompanying tables provide various levels of detail for the intended audience. - This summary methodology is accessible through Turkstat’s website. - CBRT has disseminated comprehensive metadata to the public since mid-December 2008. - A link from the CBRT’s website to the summary methodology in DSBB will be established. #### 5.3 Assistance to users - Contact points: - Data users can reach contact persons for monetary statistics identified in the SDDS metadata through the IMF’s DSBB. - Queries on monetary data can be addressed to the MFDD via e-mail (iletisimbilgi@tcmb.gov.tr). - Queries can also be sent via e-mail (evds@tcmb.gov.tr) under EDDS. - Users can contact the head of the SD using phone number and email address in the “General Information” section of CBRT’s website. - Contact points are disseminated in Weekly Press Bulletin, Quarterly Bulletin, and on the CBRT’s website. - No brochures have been developed to educate users. - User surveys are produced occasionally. - Catalogs and availability: - A catalogue of the CBRT’s publications is not available. - Lists of the data published by the CBRT and the CBRT’s publications, as well as a data release calendar are posted on the CBRT’s website. - The CBRT has a subscription form which can be completed and submitted electronically through the CBRT’s EDDS. - Publications, documents, and other services are free of charge. ### Recommendations High priority - Bring the timeliness of the monetary survey and the analytical accounts of the banking sector in line with the SDDS prescription. To this end, move expeditiously, in collaboration with the BRSA, to streamline the reporting system without loss of necessary detail. - Identify and report separately financial derivatives in the “sectoral accounts.” - Address discrepancies in interbank data. Other - Identify separately the MMFs that issue “Type B Liquid Funds” in the “Institutional Sector List” to facilitate appropriate classification by reporters. - Adhere more closely to the terminology in the MFSM, particularly to describe financial instruments, and explain in footnotes any deviations, when warranted. *Source: _cr09286 - 4. Serviceability* ### Appendix II. Data Quality Assessment Framework—Generic Framework ### Appendix II. Data Quality Assessment Framework—Generic Framework (July 2003 Framework) ### Prerequisites of quality - Legal and institutional environment - 0.1.1 The responsibility for collecting, processing, and disseminating the statistics is clearly specified. - 0.1.2 Data sharing and coordination among data-producing agencies are adequate. - 0.1.3 Individual reporters’ data are to be kept confidential and used for statistical purposes only. - 0.1.4 Statistical reporting is ensured through legal mandate and/or measures to encourage response. - Resources - 0.2.1 Staff, facilities, computing resources, and financing are commensurate with statistical programs. - 0.2.2 Measures to ensure efficient use of resources are implemented. - Relevance - 0.3.1 The relevance and practical utility of existing statistics in meeting users’ needs are monitored. - Other quality management - 0.4.1 Processes are in place to focus on quality. - 0.4.2 Processes are in place to monitor the quality of the statistical program. - 0.4.3 Processes are in place to deal with quality considerations in planning the statistical program. ### Assurances of integrity - Professionalism - 1.1.1 Statistics are produced on an impartial basis. - 1.1.2 Choices of sources and statistical techniques, as well as decisions about dissemination, are informed solely by statistical considerations. - 1.1.3 The appropriate statistical entity is entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics. - Transparency - 1.2.1 The terms and conditions under which statistics are collected, processed, and disseminated are available to the public. - 1.2.2 Internal governmental access to statistics prior to their release is publicly identified. - 1.2.3 Products of statistical agencies/units are clearly identified as such. - 1.2.4 Advance notice is given of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques. - Ethical standards - 1.3.1 Guidelines for staff behavior are in place and are well known to the staff. ### Methodological soundness - Concepts and definitions - 2.1.1 The overall structure in terms of concepts and definitions follows internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - Scope - 2.2.1 The scope is broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - Classification/sectorization - 2.3.1 Classification/sectorization systems used are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. - Basis for recording - 2.4.1 Market prices are used to value flows and stocks. - 2.4.2 Recording is done on an accrual basis. - 2.4.3 Grossing/netting procedures are broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices. ### Accuracy and reliability - Source data - 3.1.1 Source data are obtained from comprehensive data collection programs that take into account country-specific conditions. - 3.1.2 Source data reasonably approximate the definitions, scope, classifications, valuation, and time of recording required. - 3.1.3 Source data are timely. - Assessment of source data - 3.2.1 Source data—including censuses, sample surveys, and administrative records—are routinely assessed, e.g., for coverage, sample error, response error, and nonsampling error; the results of the assessments are monitored and made available to guide statistical processes. - Statistical techniques - 3.3.1 Data compilation employs sound statistical techniques to deal with data sources. - 3.3.2 Other statistical procedures (e.g., data adjustments and transformations, and statistical analysis) employ sound statistical techniques. - Assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs - 3.4.1 Intermediate results are validated against other information, where applicable. - 3.4.2 Statistical discrepancies in intermediate data are assessed and investigated. - 3.4.3 Statistical discrepancies and other potential indicators or problems in statistical outputs are investigated. - Revision studies - 3.5.1 Studies and analyses of revisions are carried out routinely and used internally to inform statistical processes (see also 4.3.3). ### Serviceability (periodicity, timeliness, consistency, revisions) - Periodicity and timeliness - 4.1.1 Periodicity follows dissemination standards. - 4.1.2 Timeliness follows dissemination standards. - Consistency - 4.2.1 Statistics are consistent within the dataset. - 4.2.2 Statistics are consistent or reconcilable over a reasonable period of time. - 4.2.3 Statistics are consistent or reconcilable with those obtained through other data sources and/or statistical frameworks. - Revision policy and practice - 4.3.1 Revisions follow a regular and transparent schedule. - 4.3.2 Preliminary and/or revised data are clearly identified. - 4.3.3 Studies and analyses of revisions are made public (see also 3.5.1). ### Accessibility - Data accessibility - 5.1.1 Statistics are presented in a way that facilitates proper interpretation and meaningful comparisons (layout and clarity of text, tables, and charts). - 5.1.2 Dissemination media and format are adequate. - 5.1.3 Statistics are released on a preannounced schedule. - 5.1.4 Statistics are made available to all users at the same time. - 5.1.5 Statistics not routinely disseminated are made available upon request. - Metadata accessibility - 5.2.1 Documentation on concepts, scope, classifications, basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques is available, and differences from internationally accepted standards, guidelines, or good practices are annotated. - 5.2.2 Levels of detail are adapted to the needs of the intended audience. - Assistance to users - 5.3.1 Contact points for each subject field are publicized. - 5.3.2 Catalogs of publications, documents, and other services, including information on any charges, are widely available. *Appendix II. Data Quality Assessment Framework—Generic Framework (July 2003 Framework).* --- ### Appendix III. Users’ Views — Summary of survey of data users ### High-level user-survey summary - Survey and interviews - 13 survey responses and six additional interviews. - Responses confirmed findings of the 2001 data ROSC mission and the User Satisfaction Survey conducted by Turkstat in 2004. - Overall impressions - Overall satisfaction with macroeconomic statistics, with aspirations for more detail, better timeliness, and more robust inter-dataset consistency. - More satisfaction reported for price, monetary, and balance of payments statistics. - More scope for improvement in national accounts (particularly coverage and detail) and in GFS (data on local governments and social security funds as well as metadata). - Users wanted more frequency for the GFS and better timeliness for national accounts, balance of payments, and government finance statistics. - Interest in greater timeliness was accompanied by readiness to accommodate more revisions under a clear policy of revisions, with respondents noting the need for more information on such policies. - Accessibility and metadata - Users were aware of advance release calendars, except in the case of the GFS. - All users obtained data through websites and virtually all were satisfied with data accessibility, except for a fifth of the users of the national accounts. - Many respondents pointed to a need for better access to metadata and improved user support. ### Selected findings from interviews with six key users - General improvements and remaining gaps - Significant improvement in quality of statistics since 2001 driven by authorities’ pursuit of EU accession and desire to achieve international standards. - New GDP estimates are significantly better, but there are no long data series; no regional GDP figures since 2001. - Good metadata and explanation of data revisions for national accounts are now available (previously none). - CPI data are good; Turkstat open to disseminate additional data for a reasonable fee, but household survey information deemed sensitive/confidential. - CBRT is a leading producer of macroeconomic data: reliable, excellent electronic database, user-friendly, very detailed, easily downloaded. - Considerable progress on GFS, but more is needed. General government data improved significantly (and will probably be comprehensive in 2-3 years), but progress on data on state-owned enterprises is pending. - BOP data are the only dataset with single-source estimates. - Lack of clear explanations of differences among similar published fiscal data. - Since 2006 improved central government data available, but insufficient data on social security institutions and local administrations; SPO remains essential source of annual estimates of local administrations. - Treasury data on SOEs are too aggregated and difficult to use/analyze. - Improved data on government guarantees are needed. - More detail needed in the BOP, particularly capital flows; certain inflows (including privatization-related) cannot be identified. - Explanations on GFS are somewhat superficial and do not focus on main changes of released data. - Need to explain differences among similar aggregates published by CBRT and BRSA; differences between Treasury estimates on external debt and those prepared by CBRT need explanation. - Volume and timeliness of official data improved immensely in recent years, particularly CBRT publications. - CBRT data quality is excellent with best access to users, but further detail is needed and timeliness of the current account balance and external debt should be improved without delay. - Inter-agency collaboration needed to speed up processing of external trade data; Turkish Exporters Association publishes export data with a delay of a few days, Turkstat takes 30 days. - CBRT previously introduced a database on foreign debt of the corporate sector; now need to expand detail to identify debt and debt service by type of creditor (particularly parent company vs. banks). Current timeliness lag of 5-6 months is insufficient. - Faster dissemination needed along with a clear policy on revisions and clear explanations when revisions exceed a reasonable threshold; would permit reducing the excessive lag of three months in publication of quarterly GDP data. - Data quality by agency: CBRT good, Turkstat satisfactory, MOF needs improvement in coverage and transparency; MOF metadata and explanations insufficient. - Treasury statistics: satisfied with timeliness, frequency and accessibility, but need more clarity on borrowing by municipalities and development banks and more information on government guarantees issued on debt of these entities. ### Results of Turkey’s User Survey—November 2008 (selected tabulated results) - Total number of responses: 13 - Regular use of official statistics (number of respondents) - National accounts (NA): 13 - Prices: 13 - Government finance statistics (GFS): 11 - Monetary statistics (Monetary): 12 - Balance of payments (BOP): 11 - Other: Production indices 10; Labor market 13; Merchandise trade 9; International reserves and foreign currency liquidity 10; External debt 11; International investment position 8 - Sources of official statistics (number of respondents) - Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat): 13 - Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT): 12 - Ministry of Finance (MOF): 12 - Undersecretary of Treasury: 11 - State Planning Organization (SPO): 8 - Other sources: 7 - Reference to official descriptions of sources and methods - Yes: 11 - No: 1 - Purposes for using official statistics (number of respondents) - Analysis of current developments for short-term decision making: 11 - Analysis of trends for longer-term policy formulation: 10 - Econometric model building and forecasting: 6 - Economic research: 13 - Comparison with economic developments in other countries: 11 - General economic background: 11 - Other: 2 ### Survey responses on coverage, detail, periodicity, timeliness, dissemination, accessibility, and overall assessment (selected highlights) - Coverage and detail (NA, Prices, GFS, Monetary, BOP) - 5.1 In general, are you satisfied with the coverage of official statistics? - NA: Yes 5, No 6 - Prices: Yes 12, No 0 - GFS: Yes 6, No 2 - Monetary: Yes 12, No 0 - BOP: Yes 6, No 2 - 5.2 In general, are you satisfied with the official statistics in terms of available detail? - NA: Yes 5, No 7 - Prices: Yes 12, No 0 - GFS: Yes 5, No 4 - Monetary: Yes 12, No 0 - BOP: Yes 12, No 0 - 5.4 Do you find statistical series to be consistent over time? - NA: Yes 4, No 7 - Prices: Yes 9, No 2 - GFS: Yes 5, No 3 - Monetary: Yes 9, No 1 - BOP: Yes 6, No 3 - 5.5 Do you find the official statistics objective? - NA: Yes 7, No 2 - Prices: Yes 11, No 1 - GFS: Yes 7, No 1 - Monetary: Yes 12, No 0 - BOP: Yes 11, No 0 - Periodicity and timeliness - 6.1 Are you satisfied with the frequency of compilation? - NA: Yes 9, No 3 - Prices: Yes 12, No 0 - GFS: Yes 6, No 4 - Monetary: Yes 11, No 0 - BOP: Yes 11, No 1 - 6.2 Are official statistics disseminated with appropriate timeliness? - NA: Yes 5, No 6 - Prices: Yes 11, No 1 - GFS: Yes 7, No 2 - Monetary: Yes 8, No 1 - BOP: Yes 5, No 5 - Dissemination practices - 7.1 Do you know if there is a publicly disseminated release calendar? - NA: Yes 11, No 0; Prices: Yes 12, No 0; GFS: Yes 7, No 2; Monetary: Yes 9, No 0; BOP: Yes 10, No 1 - 7.2 Are official statistics released on pre-announced dates? - NA: Yes 11, No 0; Prices: Yes 13, No 0; GFS: Yes 7, No 1; Monetary: Yes 8, No 0; BOP: Yes 9, No 0 - 7.3 Is there enough information about revisions to satisfy your needs? - NA: Yes 4, No 7; Prices: Yes 8, No 2; GFS: Yes 2, No 6; Monetary: Yes 6, No 2; BOP: Yes 6, No 6 - 7.4 Do you find the policy and procedure for revisions adequate? - NA: Yes 1, No 9; Prices: Yes 6, No 3; GFS: Yes 1, No 6; Monetary: Yes 7, No 3; BOP: Yes 5, No 6 - Accessibility - 8.1 Can you easily access the official statistics? - NA: Yes 11, No 2; Prices: Yes 13, No 0; GFS: Yes 11, No 1; Monetary: Yes 13, No 0; BOP: Yes 12, No 0 - 8.2 Can you easily access information pertaining to official statistics (explanatory notes, methods)? - NA: Yes 6, No 5; Prices: Yes 10, No 2; GFS: Yes 5, No 5; Monetary: Yes 11, No 2; BOP: Yes 8, No 4 - 8.3 Is the methodology information sufficiently clear and at an adequate level of detail? - Yes 9, No 3 - 8.4 Formats of access (number of respondents) - Official releases: 8; Hard copy publications: 8; Data specifically requested: 4; Official website: 13; Other: 7; E-mail requests: 6 - Overall assessment - 9.1 Is the underlying methodology sound and appropriate? - NA: Yes 8, No 4; Prices: Yes 10, No 2; GFS: Yes 6, No 2; Monetary: Yes 11, No 0; BOP: Yes 9, No 1 - 9.2 Are the official statistics reliable? - NA: Yes 9, No 1; Prices: Yes 11, No 1; GFS: Yes 6, No 1; Monetary: Yes 11, No 0; BOP: Yes 11, No 0 - 9.3 How compare with other countries in region? - NA: Better 4, Same 5, Worse 0 - Prices: Better 6, Same 4, Worse 0 - GFS: Better 3, Same 4, Worse 0 - Monetary: Better 5, Same 2, Worse 0 - BOP: Better 5, Same 3, Worse 0 - 9.4 Overall quality rating (1 poor to 5 excellent) - NA = 3.50 - Prices = 4.25 - GFS = 3.10 - Monetary = 4.10 - BOP = 4.18 ### Additional user comments (Box 1 highlights) - National accounts: March 2008 methodological/content changes consistent with ESA improved the national accounts but more work needed for complete harmonization with ESA; GDP figures not revised according to income method; details of investment not provided; link between industry output and value added not properly established. - GDP per capita: With March 2008 revision, Turkstat could have calculated GDP per capita since 1998 according to new method; users cannot calculate GDP per capita without knowing population prior to 2007 (date of last census). - Industrial production: Statistics by sector not published, only percentage changes. - Base year changes: Turkstat should do more work linking series with base year change. - Need for seasonally adjusted series: GDP, industrial production, trade, etc. - CPI: Analytical breakdown needed (services, goods, etc.); CPI basket does not represent actual consumption practices; divergence with Istanbul Chamber of Commerce calculations leads some to evaluate inflation statistics as "not reliable". - GFS: Central government budget GFS timely but not for rest of public sector, especially local governments. - SPO data comes a bit late. - BOP: Doubts about change in IIP stocks in 2006-07; need explanation for apparent inconsistencies (example: French stocks increased by almost US$5 billion but France rated 10th at end of 2007 in terms of flow). - BOP real estate: Lack of precision; CBRT not publishing buyers' nationalities. - Preference to use Turkish statistics because more up-to-date compared to IMF, WB, or UN statistics despite some reliability concerns. - Need faster availability of English updates. - CBRT data retrieval system needs updating; it often stops during working hours. *Source: Survey of Users of Macroeconomic Data in Turkey, November 2008.* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2009/_cr09286.pdf_