## _cr10190 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [_cr10190](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2010/_cr10190.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2010/_cr10190.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2010/_cr10190.pdf.json) --- ### PREFACE — Purpose, diagnostic basis, and government commitment - Presents the Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy (PRGS) for the Union of the Comoros covering the next five years. - Diagnostic basis: six core strategies and 32 priority programs identified from a comprehensive assessment and validated in workshops. - Government commitment: - Support priority programs as resources allow and implement institutional reforms to restore growth and reduce poverty. - Aim to reach the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). - Sign-off: The President of the Union of the Comoros, Moroni, September 10, 2009. ### CHAPTER II — Analysis of living conditions and poverty: key findings - Macroeconomic and social trends (recent) - Real GDP growth: approximately 0.2 percent in 2008 vs. 0.8 percent in 2007. - Inflation: 6.5 percent in 2008 vs. 4.5 percent in 2007. - Post-conflict IMF program: CF 1.8 billion released in December 2008. - Fiscal and balance of payments: domestic revenue improved but current expenditure rose; overall deficit (excluding grants) deteriorated; current account deficit worsened. - Household impacts and remittances - Heavy dependence on transfers from Comorian expatriates; anticipated drop in short- to medium-term transfers, especially affecting Ngazidja. - Export crops: ylang-ylang stable/slightly improved in 2008; cloves and vanilla declined substantially. - Perceptions and priorities (qualitative) - Well-being defined by basic needs: housing, education, clothing, food, health, hygiene, sanitation. - Population-identified priorities to improve well-being: (i) access to quality health care; (2) access to drinking water; (iii) education (57 percent of population); (iv) housing (55 percent); (v) religion; (vi) employment; (vii) credit; (viii) capital goods; (ix) trade; (x) cash crops; (xi) electricity; (xii) telecommunications; (xiii) roads. - Monetary poverty (EIM 2004) - Household-level incidence (2004): 36.9 percent. - Individual-level incidence (2004): 44.8 percent. - Island individual poverty rates (2004): Ndzouani 46.4 percent; Mwali 49.1 percent; Ngazidja 42.7 percent. - Real per capita Consumption (000 FC) — Total: 698.5. - Weighted N — Total: 2,987. - Poverty line: CF 285,144 per capita, per annum. - Poverty profile and inequality (1995–2004) - Gini index increased 25.7 percent (from 0.443 to 0.557). - Elasticities: A 1 percent increase in per-capita expenditure reduces poverty intensity ratios by 1.64 percent and 1.87 percent (two reported measures). - Poverty is sensitive to inequality; poverty decline 1995–2004 would have been higher with less inequality. - Key socioeconomic subgroup incidences - Households headed by unprotected wage earners, informal independent workers, or family assistant-apprentices: 30-35 percent. - Households headed by subsistence/commercial farmers, unemployed/inactive persons: 38-39 percent. - Households headed by micro-entrepreneurs, stockbreeders, or fishermen: 46-54 percent. - Three groups account for nearly two-thirds of national poverty: farmers' households 30.2 percent; unprotected wage earners' households 15.8 percent; households headed by inactive persons 19.6 percent. - Non-monetary poverty and human capital - Electricity as lighting source: Ngazidja 53.6 percent; Ndzouani 22.6 percent; Mwali 28.4 percent; affluent houses 48.9 percent; poor houses 27.0 percent. - Three fourths of households use wood for cooking. - Returns to education (estimated): - Women with upper secondary education earn 89.6 percent more than uneducated women. - Men with upper secondary education: 52.1 percent marginal rate of return. - Higher education returns: Women 403.5 percent; Men 131.9 percent. - Annual education expenditure per child enrolled: CF 44,000 (wealthy households CF 86,000; poor households CF 20,000). - Adult literacy rate (15+): 56.5 percent. - Net literacy rates: Primary (6-11) 68.8 percent; Secondary (12-18) 66.2 percent. - Child malnutrition (national): growth retardation 44 percent; emaciation 7.9 percent; underweight 24.9 percent. - Labor market and income - Activity rate (7+ years): 37.5 percent (49.7 percent for 15-65 years). - Employment structure: agricultural sector (including fishing/stockbreeding) 57.4 percent of jobs. - Average household income: CF 699,000; Current annual expenditure: CF 698,600. - Income from transfers: 2.5 percent of household income; per capita transfers: Ngazidja CF 95,400; Ndzouani CF 31,100. - Unemployment (7+ years) 13.5 percent (Ngazidja 14.9 percent; Mwali 15.0 percent; Ndzouani 12.1 percent). - Youth unemployment severe: for persons under 24 years, unemployment affects one fourth to one third of active population. ### CHAPTER III — Sector diagnostics and priority interventions - Agriculture, stockbreeding, fishing (overview) - Agriculture: approximately 49 percent of GDP, 80 percent of jobs, nearly 90 percent of export revenue. - Food crops represent 80 percent of agricultural production and ~47 percent of agricultural value added. - Sector weaknesses include water management, land access/security, isolation of production areas, insufficient marketing/processing, limited credit, and weak extension capacity. - Priority interventions: land reform; capacity building for farmers’ organizations; intensification (irrigation, mechanization, inputs, credit, extension); promotion of agrofood industry; Comoros product branding. - Stockbreeding - Stockbreeding: 11 percent of agrofood value added in 2007. - Current dependence on imports: ~80 percent of red meat and ~80 percent of white meat requirements are imported. - Strengths: progress in dairy intensification; positive genetic improvement responses. - Constraints: health controls at borders, lack of organized dairy marketing, insufficient credit and extension, high production costs. - Proposed actions: intensify milk and goat breeding, support semi-industrial poultry, strengthen border health controls, capacity building. - Fishing - Maritime zone >160,000 sq km; potential resources estimated 33,000 tons per annum (64 percent exploited). - Sector employs 6 percent of population; fishing accounted for 12 percent of GDP in 2008. - Targets with improved environment: increase production by >50 percent; create >5,000 new jobs; raise sector contribution to GDP to ~16 percent by 2014. - Constraints: weak support services, lack of data, limited private participation, absence of maritime safety, inadequate offloading/processing/cold chain. - Tourism - Current hotel supply ~472 beds; ~490 persons employed in tourism. - Historical arrivals: peak 27,474 in 1998; ~14,000 current arrivals (~45 percent of residual hotel capacity). - Government tourism strategy (2005 updated 2008): ecotourism focus; targets include increasing hotel capacity to 2,000 beds by 2014 and creating 2,500 direct jobs. - Constraints: insufficient infrastructure (roads, ports, airports, energy), high air ticket prices, lack of marketing and training, absence of tourism office. - Economic and communications infrastructure - Roads: total 849 km (665 km asphalted; 184 km unpaved). Distribution: Ngazidja 58.3 percent (495 km); Ndzouani 33.2 percent (256 km); Mwali 11.5 percent (98 km). - Ports: Ngazidja concentrates 80 percent of commercial activities but has only one deepwater port; Mutsamudu silted; maritime access in Mwali problematic. - Airports: international AIMPSI (Moroni Hahaya) plus Ouani and Bandar-Salama; problems include deteriorated runways, lack of safety equipment, absence of fences. - Telecommunications: rapid mobile expansion; liberalization and submarine cable (EASSY) noted; constraints include obsolete wiring and high costs. - Energy, drinking water, sanitation - Energy: wood 78 percent of energy requirements; hydrocarbons 20 percent; other sources ~2 percent. Electricity installed power 24 MW; overall system efficiency <45 percent; production capacity losses ~55 percent due to fraud/technical issues. - Near-term renewable target: increase from <1 percent to ~20 percent of produced energy/installed power. - Drinking water (2004): public standpipes 30.6 percent; cistern rainwater 24.2 percent; home hook-ups 15 percent. No national water quality policy. - Sanitation: major gaps in waste collection/treatment; urban wastewater and solid waste disposal problems. - Environment - Land degradation affects 57 percent of agricultural land; deforestation ~500 hectares per year. - Climate risk: potential displacement of more than 10 percent of coastal population; coastal erosion, contamination of coastal water tables. - Opportunities: high biodiversity, classification as a global “Hot Spot,” renewable energy potential, carbon sink potential. - Governance and social cohesion - Social security virtually nonexistent; less than 5,000 beneficiaries in 2003 (<1 percent of population). - Wage bill absorbs more than 70 percent of real revenue (85 percent per IMF mission estimates). - Weak judiciary, mixed legal sources, incomplete decentralization, endemic corruption. - Priorities: complete decentralization, anticorruption measures, strengthen judiciary, establish National Commission on Human Rights and Liberties. - Education - Total enrollment 2006-2007: 151,335 students (+0.9 percent from 2003). - Gross admission rate observed in 2007: 34.9 percent vs. 40.5 percent in 2003. - Classrooms: nearly 78 percent of 1,735 existing classrooms used in double shifts. - Primary student-per-teacher ratio decreased from 37.7 to 30.2 (2003–2007); secondary from 23.6 to 21.9. - Challenges: dilapidated infrastructure, insufficient qualified teachers, high share of wage spending (>80 percent of education budget), low technical and vocational training coverage. - Health - PNDS (National Health Development Plan) — targets to 2015. - Geographic accessibility: health center within 5-km radius estimated at 63 percent. - Immunization coverage declined from 90 percent in 1990s to <70 percent in 2004. - Malaria major cause of morbidity/mortality in children under five. - Maternal mortality rate reported: 381 per 100,000 live births (2003). - Strengths: national plan exists, PNDSIS being prepared, donor interest; weaknesses: insufficient financing (<15 percent recommended), shortages of qualified staff, drug stockouts. ### Private and financial sector - Estimated 49,000 private enterprises; >93 percent microenterprises; ~6 percent SMEs; <1 percent large enterprises. - Sectoral enterprise shares: agrofood 63 percent; fishing 18 percent; trade 11 percent. - Modern private sector employs ~8,000 persons (~30 percent fewer than public sector). - Financial sector developments: - BIC >60 percent of savings/credit market. - Meck and Sanduk microfinance networks expanding (Meck members 25,351 at Dec 31, 2004; Sanduk network 22,070 members in 2004). - Share of savings increased from 15 percent in 2001 to 27 percent in 2004; share of credit from 12 percent to 28 percent (2001–2004). - Constraints: limited bank financing for productive investment, concentration of financial services, judicial inefficiencies, high interest rates relative to returns. ### PRGS core strategies and priority programs (2010–2014) - Six core strategies and 32 priority programs: - Core strategy 1: Stabilize the economy and lay groundwork for strong and equitable growth (Programs 1.1–1.5). - Core strategy 2: Strengthen key sectors and broaden private sector role (Programs 2.1–2.9). - Core strategy 3: Strengthen governance and social cohesion (Programs 3.1–3.4). - Core strategy 4: Improve public health (Programs 4.1–4.4). - Core strategy 5: Promote education and vocational training (Programs 5.1–5.4). - Core strategy 6: Promote environmental sustainability and civilian security (Programs 6.1–6.6). - Priority emphases include fiscal reforms, energy supply improvement, infrastructure (roads, ports, airports, telecom), water/sanitation, institution building, agriculture/fisheries/tourism revival, vocational training, governance, health (malaria, reproductive health, HIV), and climate adaptation. ### Macroeconomic framework and scenarios (Chapter V) - Recent developments (2007–2008) - Real GDP growth: 0.8 percent in 2007; ~0.2 percent in 2008. - Basic budget deficit: ~3.5 percent of GDP in 2008 vs. ~2.9 percent in 2007. - Overall deficit (not including grants): >13 percent of GDP in 2008 vs. 10 percent in 2007. - Outstanding debt end-2008: 68.5 percent of GDP vs. 65.7 percent in 2007. - Exports declined: CF 2.2 billion in 2008 vs. CF 4,964 million in 2007 (decline >55 percent). - Trade deficit: CF 62 billion in 2008 vs. CF 44.8 billion in 2007 — 9.5 percent of GDP in 2008 vs. 6.7 percent in 2007. - Three scenarios for 2010–2014 1. PRGS scenario (benchmark for PRGS implementation) - Targets: real GDP growth 2.5 percent in 2010 moving to 5.6 percent by 2014; average 2010–2014 ~4.3 percent. - Sectoral average annual growth 2010–2014: primary 4.6 percent; secondary 2.18 percent; tertiary 3 percent. - Sector assumptions: agriculture production increase targeted 15 percent; fishing real growth target 15 percent; stockbreeding 6 percent. - Fiscal path (Table 5.6 in CF billions): GDP at market prices: 2009 184.20; 2014 262.76. Real GDP growth: 2009 1.2; 2010 2.5; 2011 3.6; 2012 4.4; 2013 5.5; 2014 5.6. - Budget and balance indicators (Table 5.6): - Budget revenue (CF billions): 2009 23.95; 2014 39.41. - Total expenditure (CF billions): 2009 40.7; 2014 70.67. - Primary balance (CF billions): 2009 -4.0; 2014 3.6. - Wages / Total revenue (percent): 2009 68.1%; 2014 45.6%. - Financing gap (CF billions): 2009 4.42; 2014 14.76. 2. MDG scenario - MDG costing (2008–2015) total approximately US$29,524,465,912 (2008–2015 total). - MDG total (CF operations) 2008–2015: CF 8,287,692,021,876. - MDG sector costs examples (US$ operations, 2008–2015 totals): - ENERGY: 6,492,540,681. - ROADS/TRANSPORTATION: 4,301,153,139. - HEALTH: 3,121,417,829. - SANITATION (operations 2008–2015): 13,403,337,481. - The PRGS scenario covers only 3 percent of MDG financing needs. 3. IMF scenario - Lower growth: average 3.6 percent for 2010–2014 vs. 4.3 percent in PRGS scenario. - IMF projected real GDP growth rates: 2010 1.0; 2011 2.0; 2012 3.0; 2013 3.50 (Table 5.9/Table 5.10 excerpts show variant presentations). - IMF fiscal projections (Table 5.9): Primary balance (CF billions) 2009 -3.20; 2013 0.60. Financing gaps smaller than PRGS scenario (e.g., financing gap 2009 CF 9.22 vs PRGS 4.42 in 2009 in differing tables — consult tables for exact cross-scenario comparisons). - Medium-term macro targets and fiscal requirements - Investment path: investment rate 6.9 percent in 2009, 14.3 percent in 2012, 13.3 percent in 2014. - Budget revenue target: increase from 13.6 percent of GDP in 2010 to 15 percent of GDP in 2014. - Key fiscal imperatives: wage bill containment; mobilize more tax revenue; obtain debt relief via HIPC; expand money supply to accompany growth while controlling inflation. ### CHAPTER VI — PRGS financing requirements (2010–2014) - Overall PRGS financing totals - Total required (including acquired): CF 463,349 million for 2010–2014. - Financing acquired for period: CF 45,190 million (resources currently available CF 46.1 billion referenced elsewhere). - Financing required (additional): CF 418,159 million. - Average per annum required: CF 83 billion (resources to be obtained). - Key totals by core strategy (Table 6.1, millions of CF) - Core strategy I: Acquired 20,389; Required 234,285; Total 254,674 (55.0%). - Core strategy II: Acquired 802; Required 55,025; Total 55,826 (12.0%). - Core strategy III: Acquired 6,560; Required 14,817; Total 21,377 (4.6%). - Core strategy IV: Acquired 8,406; Required 62,234; Total 70,641 (15.2%). - Core strategy V: Acquired 4,020; Required 28,768; Total 32,788 (7.1%). - Core strategy VI: Acquired 5,013; Required 23,030; Total 28,043 (6.1%). - Total (all strategies): Acquired 45,190; Required 418,159; Total 463,349. - Key totals by major sector (Table 6.2, millions of CF) - Energy: Acquired 850; Required 70,154; Total 71,004 (15.3%). - Economic and communication infrastructure: Acquired 3,616; Required 67,025; Total 70,641 (15.2%). - Health: Acquired 8,406; Required 62,234; Total 70,641 (15.2%). - Drinking water and sanitation: Acquired 14,190; Required 26,445; Total 40,635 (8.8%). - Agriculture: Acquired 471; Required 5,808; Total 15,854 (3.4%). - Fishing: Acquired 558; Required 18,607; Total 19,165 (4.1%). - Education: Acquired 4,020; Required 28,768; Total 32,788 (7.1%). - Fiscal reform and commercial policy (listed as sector): Acquired 1,733; Required 70,661; Total 72,394 (15.6%). - Program-level financing examples (2010–2014, millions of CF) - Program 1.1 Enhance state and fiscal operations: Acquired 1,391; Required 68,583. - Program 1.3 Improve energy supply at low cost: Acquired 850; Required 70,154. - Program 1.4 Improve communication infrastructure: Acquired 3,616; Required 67,025. - Program 2.5 Restore agricultural and agrofood production: Acquired 0; Required 8,224. - Program 2.8 Develop conservation, processing, and marketing for fish products: Acquired 513; Required 18,298. - Program 4.1 Fight malaria and priority diseases: Acquired 5,126; Required 11,211. - Program 4.4 Strengthen health system efficacy: Acquired 3,174; Required 44,083. - Program 5.2 Improve access and quality of basic and secondary education: Acquired 1,258; Required 19,246. - Program 6.3 Adapt to climate change: Acquired 3,312; Required 10,500. - Projected external assistance and major donor projects (selected) - Fragile States Facility (AfDB) budget support: CF 1,103 (2009–2010). - EU 10th EDF transportation infrastructure: CF 13,257 (2010–2013). - World Fund malaria program: CF 5,303 (2009–2014). - AFD PASCO health support: CF 4,910 (2009–2013). - IFAD PNDHD and AFD PREDIVAC agriculture projects: CF 1,905 and CF 1,841 respectively. - UNDP microfinance and youth programs (PAFIC and FCP): CF 982 and CF 1,964 respectively. ### Monitoring, evaluation, and implementation arrangements - Monitoring and evaluation system objectives - Gradual adoption of results-based management; accountability of ministries and islands; strengthening of statistical system (SNDS validated 2007). - Monitoring components: (1) performance indicators; (2) program/project execution monitoring; (3) policy and program evaluations (ex ante, midterm, completion, ex post impact). - Institutional framework (seven structures) - Interministerial Monitoring and Coordination Committee (chaired by Secretary-General of government). - Strategic Committee for Coordination of Development Assistance (chaired by head of state). - PRGS Technical Steering Committee (Office of the General Commissioner for Planning). - Permanent Technical Secretariat for PRGS Monitoring and Evaluation. - National Statistics Directorate and decentralized island units. - Sectoral Technical Groups (GTS) chaired by secretaries-general. - Committees for Development Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation (COPSED) in the three islands. - Reporting and outputs - Annual PRGS progress report; annual program/project performance reports; beneficiary satisfaction surveys; ad hoc evaluations. - Timetable: joint annual sectoral reviews and joint annual PRGS review in first half of each year to inform budgeting. - Key performance indicator targets (selected) - Real GDP growth: benchmark 0.8% (2007); targets 2010 2.5; 2011 3.6; 2012 4.4; 2013 5.5; 2014 5.8. - Electrification rate: benchmark 40% (2005); targets 2010 50; 2011 60; 2012 70; 2013 85; 2014 90. - Proportion of population below poverty line (P0): 44.8% (2004); 2014 target 35. - Net primary school enrollment rate: 73.0% (2007); 2014 target 95.0. - Population with regular access to improved water source: 25% (2008); 2014 target 80. *IMF Country Report _cr10190 — extracted PDF chapter and annex content as provided.* ### PREFACE ### PREFACE ### Purpose and scope - Presents the Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy (PRGS) for the Union of the Comoros. - Outlines the country’s development priorities for the next five years, that are supported by all Comorians. - The vision reflects: - the hopes of the population and the current socioeconomic situation; - the medium-term macroeconomic outlook; - the most recent findings from quantitative and qualitative studies of household living conditions, poverty, and various forms of inequality; - a review of the performance, strengths, and weaknesses of the country’s key social and economic sectors. ### Diagnostic basis for the PRGS - The PRGS is based on a comprehensive diagnostic assessment. - From this assessment, six core strategies and 32 priority programs were identified. - These strategies and programs were addressed in several discussion and validation workshops, which confirmed their relevance and priority status for the country's development. ### Government commitment and objectives - The Government of the Union of the Comoros intends to support these priority programs, as its resources allow, and to implement the institutional reforms required for true recovery of growth and reduction of poverty. - Through practical implementation of this strategy, the government intends to spare no effort to reach the Millennium Development Goals (MGDs). - The Comorian people believe that, with the support of the international community, the many challenges impeding the country's development process can be addressed. - This strategy is presented as the first step to restore the Comoros to the path of robust economic growth and sustainable poverty reduction. ### Sign-off - /s/ The President of the Union of the Comoros - Moroni, September 10, 2009 *IMF Country Report _cr10190 - PREFACE* ### 1.1 O ### 1.1 O RIGIN AND BASIS OF THE PRGSP ### Origin and guiding principles of the IPRGSP/PRGSP - In 2003 the Comoros established an Interim Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy Paper (IPRGSP) prepared in a highly participative, inclusive process with all national players and international development partners. - The adopted approach was based on the following four principles: - A strategy devised with a participative approach designed to involve the public, key players in civil society, and the private sector in poverty reduction; - A gradually developed strategy, starting with existing information and limiting the collection of new information to a strict minimum, focusing instead on dialog and exchange through regional and national workshops and roundtable discussions. The strategy will be improved and updated as the data on household living conditions are collected and the impact studies are conducted; - A strategy targeting potential growth areas, and particularly the economic sectors comprising the vulnerable and poor groups, to achieve sustainable poverty reduction while being mindful of the essential social dimensions identified; - A cross-cutting strategy to ensure that the macroeconomic environment and sectoral programs and policies are effectively integrated, to reflect more effectively the dimensions characterizing poverty, and to propose innovative operations to address the multiple factors impeding growth and poverty reduction. ### Updates, sequencing, and relation to IMF program - The IPRGSP was updated in 2005 and accompanied by an action plan covering the period 2006-2009 for the December 2005 Comoros Donors’ Conference. - The IPRGSP remained interim pending conclusion of a formal program with the IMF. - When relations resumed with the IMF, the government decided in 2008 to prepare the final PRGSP. Key preparatory tasks were established: - To update the sectoral diagnostic study and profile of poverty and adjustment to reflect the core strategies, programs, and operations adopted; - To reflect more effectively the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals; - To integrate trade more accurately by taking into account the Diagnostic Study on Trade Integration (EDIC); - To take better account of human rights and gender issues; - To reflect decentralization more effectively. - Comprehensive studies were conducted, including an evaluation of the costs of the requirements to reach the MDGs. ### Institutional arrangements and participatory process - The government strengthened the institutional steering mechanism, reinforced sectoral working groups, and ensured sectoral groups are chaired by the secretaries-general of the ministerial departments involved. - Committees for Development Planning, Monitoring, and Evaluation (COPSED) replaced the steering committees and contributed to preliminary studies, MDG cost assessments, and sectoral working groups. - COPSEDs are chaired by representatives from civil society and the private sector; Island Planning Directorates provide technical secretariat functions. ### Contents of the PRGSP document - The paper comprises seven chapters: - Chapter Two: qualitative and quantitative analysis of living conditions and poverty in the Comoros. - Chapter Three: diagnostic assessment of the different sectors involved in the PRGS. - Chapter Four: objectives, core strategies, and priority programs adopted in connection with the strategy. - Chapter Five: macroeconomic environment and macro-financial framework. - Chapter Six: estimated costs of the PRGS. - Chapter Seven: framework for monitoring and assessment of the strategy. --- ### CHAPTER II — ANALYSIS OF LIVING CONDITIONS AND POVERTY ### Macroeconomic and social context (recent trends and crises) - The Union of the Comoros endured repeated political, institutional, and economic crises during the past 10 years, aggravating poverty and deteriorating the social climate and international relations. - The government concluded a post-conflict program with the IMF in October 2008, and CF 1.8 billion in financial support was released in December 2008. - Real GDP growth: approximately 0.2 percent in 2008 as against 0.8 percent in 2007 (10-year lows). - Inflation: 6.5 percent in 2008, as against 4.5 percent in 2007. - The energy crisis in the latter half of 2008 paralyzed economic sectors and worsened the economic crisis; shortages of certain commodities such as rice and petroleum products were observed. - Fiscal situation: despite improved domestic revenue, increases in current expenditure led to deterioration in key budget balances and the overall deficit (not including grants); arrears to staff and enterprises remain substantial. - Balance of payments: current account deficit registered sharp deterioration associated with erosion of the balance of trade. - External financing: financial commitments from the international community following the Mauritius Conference had yet to materialize; very few new resources had been injected into the economy in recent years. ### Impacts on households, remittances, and exports - Many households survive largely on transfers from Comorian expatriates; a drop in short- to medium-term transfers is anticipated, implying a decline in household income, particularly in Ngazidja. - Rural areas affected by production and price declines for key export products: - Ylang-ylang production and prices: seem to have remained stable or improved slightly in 2008; - Cloves and vanilla: prices and quantities produced and exported declined substantially. ### Perceptions of well-being and poverty (qualitative findings) - A 2002 qualitative study on perceptions of well-being and poverty was confirmed by the 2004 comprehensive household survey (EIM); no recent data are available to establish a current profile. - Well-being is defined primarily by satisfaction of basic requirements: housing, education, clothing, food, health, hygiene, and sanitation. Poverty is defined as the absence of these requirements. - Food security concerns: many households indicated they did not eat sufficient quantities or a high quality diet; products such as meat, fish, rice, bananas, chicken, and cassava are not accessible to a substantial proportion of the population. - Social problems such as theft and delinquency are associated with growing poverty. - Employment, road infrastructure, commercial activities, access to energy and telecommunications perceived as mechanisms to improve household living conditions; deterioration in energy supply identified as a major obstacle to economic development and poverty reduction. - Signs of improved quality of life include owning furniture, a radio or television, or having a grand wedding. - Some island-specific perceptions: - In Ngazidja, road infrastructure and grand weddings are more important than in the two other islands; - In Ndzuwani, trade is a more important factor in well-being than on the other two islands. - Perceived causes of poverty: insufficiency of physical and human capital, weak institutional performance, external factors, and individual/household/community behavior; specific reasons cited include laziness, lack of education, unemployment, lack of occupational training, and not being remunerated for work. - Household strategies to escape poverty: self-employment, education, credit and savings, development of income-generating activities, occupational training, trade, and investment. ### Population-identified priorities to improve well-being - Factors perceived as key to improve well-being (listed as in source): (i) access to quality health care; (2) access to drinking water in sufficient quality and quantities; (iii) education (important to 57 percent of the population, and specifically occupational training); (iv) housing (55 percent); (v) religion (particularly in rural areas); (vi) employment; (vii) credit; (viii) capital goods; (ix) trade; (x) cash crops; (xi) electricity; (xii) telecommunications; and (xiii) roads. - Proposed actions to improve access to basic services: - Health: increase the number of health workers, reduction in costs of health care to a minimum or providing care free of charge; job creation; reduction in the costs of medicine; construction of health centers. - Primary education: financial aid for education, free school supplies, child minding at school, better public education, and children’s awareness of the importance of school. - Drinking water: implementation of water systems, construction of wells, and financial assistance. - Health infrastructure: development of waste disposal sites, waste incineration, technical assistance, construction of water drainage conduits, and studies to identify landfill sites. ### Economic activities and constraints (population view) - Main economic activities in order of importance: (i) agriculture, (ii) fishing, (iii) small business, (iv) small-scale works, (v) stockbreeding, (vi) masonry, (vii) civil service, (viii) artisanal industry, (ix) unskilled labor, and (x) domestic service. Stockbreeding more prevalent in Mwali. - Constraints cited for agriculture and fishing: - Agriculture: lack of equipment, theft of crops and animals, low prices for products, insufficient inputs, insufficient market outlets for agro-food products, crop destruction by slugs and snails, poor yields; substantial drought in Ngazidja and Mwali. - Fishing: insufficient fishing equipment (particularly boats), lack of safety at sea for fishermen, low market prices for fish (particularly in Ndzuwani and Mwali). - Other problems affecting economic activities: insufficient training, wage payment delays for civil servants, electricity and drinking water shortages, high taxes, transportation costs, insufficient pastures for animals. - Access to production equipment and land: - Proposed means to improve access to equipment: technical assistance, financial aid, equipment grants, credits for purchase of equipment, equipment loans, and employment. - Access to agricultural land is an important problem, particularly in Ndzuwani; proposed mechanisms include land redistribution, upgrading of land quality, and job creation for the purchase of agricultural land. - Access to financial services is quite limited, particularly in Mwali; suggested remedies include easier credit terms, creation of savings and loan associations, job creation, and lower interest rates. ### Scope of monetary poverty (EIM 2004 results) - Household-level incidence of monetary poverty (2004): 36.9 percent. - Individual-level monetary poverty (2004): 44.8 percent. - Island-level individual poverty rates (2004): Ndzouani 46.4 percent, Mwali 49.1 percent, Ngazidja 42.7 percent. - Poverty is higher in rural areas; Ndzouani reportedly accounted for 78.8 percent of household poverty in the Comoros. - Key table figures (EIM 2004): - Total household P0: 0.369 - Total individual P0: 0.448 - Real per capita Consumption (000 FC) — Total: 698.5 - Weighted N — Total: 2,987 - The poverty line is CF 285,144 per capita, per annum. *Source: _cr10190 - 1.1 O (PRGSP chapter/section content as provided).* ### 25.5 percent); (ii) households headed by an unprotected wage earner, an independent worker in ### _cr10190 - poverty, inequality, and labor-market findings (excerpt) ### Poverty profile and socioeconomic groups - Poverty incidence by subgroup: - Households headed by an unprotected wage earner, an independent worker in the informal sector, or a family assistant-apprentice: 30-35 percent. - Subgroups headed by a subsistence farmer, commercial farmer, unemployed person, or inactive person: 38-39 percent. - Households headed by a micro-entrepreneur, stockbreeder, or fisherman: 46-54 percent. - Three socioeconomic groups account for nearly two-thirds of national poverty: - Farmers' households: 30.2 percent. - Unprotected wage earners' households: 15.8 percent. - Households headed by an inactive person: 19.6 percent. ### Effect of inequalities - Per-capita expenditure inequality increased substantially at the national level during 1995-2004. - Gini index increased 25.7 percent (from 0.443 to 0.557). - Inequality increased particularly in Ndzouani; to a lesser extent in Ngazidja; Mwali experienced the reverse. - Key contributors to inequality: household demography (particularly number of children 5-14 years), education level of head of household, proportion of employees per household, and spatial location. - External transfers are associated with increased expenditure inequalities, particularly in Ngazidja. - Elasticities of poverty indices (2004): - Absolute value of inelasticities with respect to per-capita expenditure is substantially higher than 1 for all poverty measurements. - A 1 percent increase in per-capita expenditure leads to a reduction in the poverty intensity ratio by 1.64 percent and 1.87 percent (two reported measures). - Expenditure elasticities show an upward trend during 1995-2004. - Poverty response to inequality and growth: - Poverty tends to increase if expenditure inequality is accentuated during growth. - Greater social fragility in 2004 than in 1995 with regard to economic growth and change in income inequality. - The decline in poverty between 1995 and 2004 would have been higher had inequalities been less substantial. - Recent context (post-2004): - Although trends through 2009 cannot be verified with available information, low economic growth combined with substantial inflation imply accentuated inequalities with serious growth in poverty during recent years in the Comoros. ### Determinants of poverty (sensitivity / probability analysis) - Occupation: - Households headed by stockbreeders (particularly in Ngazidja), fishermen (particularly in Ndzouani), or micro-entrepreneurs (particularly in Mwali) are more likely to be poor rather than affluent. - Education: - Households headed by uneducated persons are at least twice as likely to be in the poor segment as those headed by a person with secondary education. - Access to primary and lower secondary education, compared with no education, only moderately reduces probability of belonging to the poorest group. - Demography and household composition: - Age of head of household is directly related to higher probability of being poor (for the poor segment). - Households managed by a woman are less likely to be exposed to poverty (findings valid for all islands). - Household size effects (national level): - One to two-person households are about four and one half times less likely to be poor than six to nine person households. - One to two-person households are three and one half times more likely to be affluent than six to nine person households. - Employment and transfers: - Increasing productive employment reduces poverty, but effect is non-linear and varies by island: - Fairly insignificant in Ndzouani, moderate in Ngazidja, substantial in Mwali. - External transfers substantially reduce probability of poverty: - Impact in Ngazidja: probability with transfers 0.29 and without fund transfers 0.37. - Impact in Mwali: probability with transfers 0.24 and without 0.39. - Intra- or inter-island transfers have no impact in Ngazidja; they increase probability of poverty in Ndzouani and decrease it in Mwali. - Spatial dimension: - Households located in rural areas are more likely to be poor, particularly in Ndzouani. ### Non-monetary poverty (human capital, living conditions, and services) - Housing and utilities: - Housing is more informal in Ndzouani and Mwali compared with Ngazidja (rammed clay or coconut palm leaves for walls, straw/leaf roofs, compacted earth floors). - Electricity as source of lighting: - Ngazidja: 53.6 percent. - Ndzouani: 22.6 percent. - Mwali: 28.4 percent. - Affluent houses: 48.9 percent; poor houses: 27.0 percent. - No indication of recent improvement in electricity supply; consequences for investment, enterprise profitability, and household well-being. - Energy for cooking: - Approximately three fourths of households use wood for meal preparation. - Returns to education (estimated earnings functions): - Women with upper secondary education earn 89.6 percent more income than uneducated women. - Men with upper secondary education: marginal rate of return 52.1 percent. - Higher education returns: - Women: 403.5 percent. - Men: 131.9 percent. - Education spending and enrollment: - Annual education expenditure per child enrolled in school averages CF 44,000. - Wealthy households spend four times more than poor ones per child enrolled (CF 86,000 and CF 20,000 per year respectively). - Level of education among employed persons 7 years and over: - Nearly half have no education. - 29.4 percent have no more than a primary education. - Adult literacy rate (15 years and older): 56.5 percent (substantial decline compared with 1995). - Net literacy rates: - Primary (6-11 years): 68.8 percent. - Secondary (12-18 years): 66.2 percent. - Ministry of National Education reported 73.0 percent in 2004 (slightly higher). - Girls lag behind boys in school enrollment, and the lag increases with education level. - Institutional attendance: - Three fourths of school children enrolled in public institutions. - School drop-out: less than 1 percent before completing primary; 5.2 percent at secondary level. - Health and nutrition: - Share of state budget devoted to health declined from 5 percent to 3 percent between 2000 and 2003. - Annual household expenditure on health: CF 27,300 (CF 23,000 for poor households; CF 25,000 for affluent households). - 17.6 percent of persons surveyed had a disease or injury in the 15 days prior to the survey. - Personnel consulted: physicians 65.3 percent, nurses 21.0 percent, healers 6.0 percent. - Child malnutrition (national level): - Growth retardation: 44 percent. - Emaciation: 7.9 percent. - Underweight prevalence: 24.9 percent. - Comparison with 1996 demographic and health survey: 33.8 percent, 8.3 percent, and 25.8 percent respectively. - Immunization coverage for children seven years and under: 81.3 percent (disparities between islands). - Postnatal care: 39 percent of children five years and under have been taken to a medical facility for postnatal care (particularly low in Ngazidja). - Proportion of women with pregnancies ending in still births: 23.0 percent (rural areas 44.2 percent; urban areas 20 percent). - 75 percent of women have had access to prenatal care; in two thirds of cases consultations are with midwives. - Mosquito net ownership: 72.0 percent of households (disparities between islands); use of impregnated nets much less widespread, particularly in poor households; one fifth of the population is not aware that impregnated mosquito nets exist. - HIV/AIDS awareness: 90 percent; three fourths know there are ways to prevent contracting the virus. - Child mortality and malnutrition spatial patterns: - Inverse relationship between household standard of living and child malnutrition, except for growth retardation. - Child malnutrition less prevalent in Ngazidja, more prevalent in Ndzouani. - EIM registers a mortality rate in children of women 15-49 years of age of 70.7 per thousand live births (mortality increases with mother’s age). ### Impact of unemployment and under-employment - Household structure and labor supply: - Average household size declined from 6.3 persons in 1995 to 5.8 persons in 2004. - Dependency rate: 3.4 (one active employed individual supports an average of 3.4 inactive or unemployed persons). - Activity rate for persons 7 years and older: 37.5 percent (49.7 percent for persons 15-65 years). - Labor supply by gender and condition: - Males (7+ years): 43.2 percent participation. - Females (7+ years): 32.0 percent participation. - Labor supply increases with age and then decreases. - Supply rates by level of education move in a U-shaped curve. - Labor supply for poor households: 32.7 percent; affluent: 46.5 percent. - Economic structure and employment shares: - Agricultural sector (including fishing and stockbreeding, urban activities, apprentices, family helpers): 57.4 percent of jobs. - Agricultural sector jobs by gender: 66.9 percent of jobs for women; 51.2 percent for men. - 46.9 percent of agricultural jobs are held by women. - Non-agricultural informal sector (including independent workers and micro-entrepreneurs): 16.2 percent of national employment. - Non-agricultural informal sector jobs held by women: 48.6 percent. - Accounts for 19.5 percent of female employment (particularly marginal activities). - Modern productive system (if all wage earners included): 26.3 percent of national employment. - Unprotected wage earners account for approximately two-thirds of jobs in modern sector. - Wage earners account for only 13.7 percent of women's jobs; 69.2 percent of which are unprotected (71.4 percent for men). - Only 28.4 percent of individuals working in modern sector are located in affluent households. - Youth and gender dynamics in labor market: - For young girls (24 years and under): nearly 70 percent of activities are in agriculture and informal sector; wage earning 9.2 percent. - Young men have more diversified access and wage earning occupies a substantial place. - Low education correlates with concentration in certain labor market segments: 80.1 percent of employed women are uneducated, as against 63.9 percent of men. - Income levels and determinants: - Women's annual income: CF 834,400. - Men's annual income: CF 1,302,000. - Female-to-male income ratio: 0.64. - Earning function findings: - Education substantially determines income; marginal yields increase with education level. - Being a man increases annual income by an average of 116.3 percent. - Unprotected wage earners, farmers, and stockbreeders receive less income than protected wage earners. - Geographic location and environment affect individual income; workers in rural areas and in urban areas in Mwali earn less than those in Moroni. - When the father has a secondary education, this has positive effects on income from work. - Household income composition and levels: - Major sources of household income: - Earnings from main activity: 36.9 percent. - Consumption of home-grown food: 27.7 percent. - Imputed housing value: 23.9 percent. - Average household income: CF 699,000. - Current annual expenditure: CF 698,600. - Low level of savings reflected by income nearly equaling expenditure. - Income from domestic and external transfers: 2.5 percent of all household income. - Funds transferred per capita: - Ngazidja: CF 95,400. - Ndzouani: CF 31,100. - Household transfer resources by gender of household manager: - Female-managed: CF 50,800. - Male-managed: CF 88,600. - Unemployment prevalence and youth unemployment: - 13.5 percent of active persons 7 years or more were unemployed in 2004. - Unemployed population composition: 47.6 percent have never worked (commonly young people). - Unemployment rates by island: - Ngazidja: 14.9 percent. - Mwali: 15.0 percent. - Ndzouani: 12.1 percent. - Youth unemployment specifics: - For persons under 24 years, unemployment strikes one fourth to one third of the active population. - Ratio of unemployment rates for persons 15-19 years to 30-49 years is approximately five; declines to approximately four for 20-24 year bracket. - 64.9 percent of unemployed persons are between 7 and 29 years of age. - 44.6 percent belong to the 15-24 year age group (42.4 percent boys and 46.1 percent girls). - Proportion of young unemployed females as a share of total unemployed girls is nearly twice as high as for young boys. - Unemployment has pronounced effect on young persons regardless of education level. - Child labor and schooling determinants: - Probability of attending school for children aged 7-17 declines with: - Poverty. - Head of household being a farmer vs. a protected wage earner. - Head of household being a man. - Household located in Ndzouani. - Probability of attending school increases when: - Head of household is educated. - Head of household is of a certain age. - Households have numerous children, particularly aged 5-14, and adults over 60. - Children belong to the head of household. - Girls have a lower probability of attending school than boys; marginal effect is fairly high. ### Restoring growth and reducing poverty (policy emphasis) - Priority to restore growth and address causes of poverty in the Comoros. - Importance of private sector recovery, particularly in agro-food areas, to ensure robust economic growth and achieve significant poverty reduction. - Growth must extend to other growth sectors (tourism, trade, works and construction) which can make necessary investments to restore growth, create jobs, and reduce poverty. - Caveat: Growth alone is insufficient if inequalities worsen, access to education and health does not improve, and the environment deteriorates. - Government priorities within the PRGS to improve living conditions: - Access to education. - Quality health care, particularly in reproductive health. - Environmental conservation. *Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2010/_cr10190.pdf* ### CHAPTER III ### CHAPTER III ### 3.0. INTRODUCTION - Presents a diagnostic assessment of the key economic and social sectors impacting poverty reduction and growth. - Nine sectoral studies produced sectoral diagnostic assessments summarized in this chapter. - Each sectoral diagnostic covers: (1) presentation of the sector; (2) sector performance and strengths; (3) weaknesses and constraints; and (4) outlook for the sector. - Sectors and subsectors analyzed: - Agriculture, fishing, and stockbreeding - Tourism - Energy, drinking water, and sanitation - Economic and communication infrastructure - Environment and public security - Governance and social cohesion - Education - Health - Private and financial sector ### 3.1. AGRICULTURE, STOCKBREEDING, AND FISHING — Overview - The agrofood sector is the foremost engine for the Comorian economy: employs the majority of the population, contributes significantly to household income, is the leading source of foreign exchange, and provides the bulk of products consumed by the population, although food imports remain substantial. - Sectoral diagnostics identify endogenous and exogenous factors affecting performance; island-specific features noted when data permit. ### 3.1.1. AGRICULTURE SUBSECTOR — Presentation and performance - Agriculture generates approximately 49 percent of the country’s GDP, 80 percent of its jobs, and nearly 90 percent of its export revenue. - Main crop categories: subsistence crops (bananas, taro, cassava, coconut); commercial vegetable crops (tomatoes, lettuce, potatoes, onions); export crops (vanilla, cloves, ylang-ylang, coffee, pepper); orchard production (citrus, avocados, mangoes, jackfruit, guava); forestry. - Vanilla is the main agricultural export product and main source of foreign exchange in the sector. - The Union of the Comoros is the world's leading producer of ylang-ylang essence. - Food crops represent 80 percent of agricultural production and account for approximately 47 percent of value added in the agricultural sector. - Storage and processing of agricultural products remain limited. - Fruit crops are highly diverse and harvested year round—potential supply for fresh fruit juice or concentrate processing. Sector strengths (selected) - Successful introduction of high-yield and disease-resistant varieties for food and commercial vegetable crops; growing farmer mastery of technical production routes. - Established, operational supply network for agricultural inputs. - Government willingness to resume investments via medium-term public investment programs (PIP). - Establishment of development funds (for food crops, fishing, etc.). - Existence of growing domestic demand and potential for diversification of cash crops. - Small-scale spice and fruit processing and preservation; fine species (spices and perfume) coexisting with other crops on same plots. Sector weaknesses and constraints (selected) - Food/commercial/fruit crops: water management; property access and security; isolation of production areas; insufficient marketing, processing, preservation, and supply structures; insufficient access to credit; lack of appropriate resources for extension units. - Export crops: isolation and fragmentation leading to high production and labor costs; insufficient diversification; absence of raw materials upgrading and marketing policies. - Problems in active population renewal: rural flight of young people; absence of attractive, immediate income; lack of appropriate mechanization. - Farmers’ organizations are nascent and lack means and human resources following government divestiture of service, management, production, and marketing functions. Priority interventions proposed - Definition and implementation of an appropriate land reform. - Capacity building for farm and professional organizations. - Intensification of agricultural production (investments in irrigation, mechanization, secure supplies of inputs, fertilizers, access to credit, extension, training, research). - Promotion of the agrofood industry. - Development of Comorian products through a Comoros brand. - Establishment of an institutional framework to promote balanced agricultural development. - Promotion of an agricultural entrepreneur class. ### 3.1.2. STOCKBREEDING SUBSECTOR — Presentation and performance - Stockbreeding represented 11 percent of the agrofood sector value added in 2007, behind agriculture (49 percent), fishing (31 percent), and forestry (9 percent) (National Accounts, 2008). - The subsector offers an essential poverty-reduction role as a savings means (small ruminants and poultry) and has development potential demonstrated by progress in dairy intensification over the past 20 years. - Composition: primarily ruminants and poultry; other species insignificant. Ruminant breeding — key observations and strengths - Small numbers per capita; dominated by goats and cattle; numbers higher in Nzwani than Ngazidja (substantial herd losses in 2003-2004 due to epizootic theileriosis). - Herds highly dispersed; mainly stall breeding to prevent crop destruction; animals owned by farmers; few pastures and poor pasture quality. - Feeding predominantly grass fodder and harvested tree leaves; fodder crop areas small except in Nioumakélé. - Insufficient production: country imports approximately 80 percent of its red meat requirements. - Positive developments: increase in cow's milk production per animal (from 2 liters to more than 10 liters per day) via crosses and artificial insemination in Nzwani and introduction of purebred dairy cows (from Tanzania) in Ngazidja. - Increase in goat meat production through crosses with Boer bucks in Mwali and Nzwani. - Development of fodder crops in dairy production development centers. - Local breeds respond well to genetic improvement; farmers receptive to technical changes. - Existence of NGOs providing veterinary care, artificial insemination, and advisory services. - Rehabilitation of the national livestock laboratory and two regional laboratories in Nzwani and Mwali, and establishment of a quarantine site in Moroni. - Existence of a dairy in Nzwani (SNAC-affiliated) though with operating difficulties. Ruminant breeding — constraints - Insufficient health control at borders; introduction of new tick-borne and viral diseases from imported cattle and goats. - No organized dairy marketing. - Insufficient production credit and extension activities. - Insufficient support for veterinary inputs; vaccines not subsidized by the state (theileriosis and Rift Valley fever). - Very high production costs compared with ruminants imported from neighboring countries such as Tanzania or Madagascar. Poultry breeding — key observations and strengths - Low total numbers and low per capita headcounts; dominated by village and semi-intensive poultry farming; semi-intensive farming declined over past 10 years due to chick and fodder supply problems. - Reliance on imported feed and chicks for semi-intensive poultry farming. - Low production levels: country imports approximately 80 percent of its white meat consumption. - Health losses dominated by Newcastle disease. - Positive developments: attempts to implement animal feed production in Nzwani; attempts to establish a one-day-old chick production unit in Ngazidja; existence of a nursery with motivated professional poultry farmers; attractive market for white meat. Poultry breeding — constraints - Chick and feed supply problems. - Insufficient production credit and extension activities. - Very high production costs due to competition from imported chicken wings and thighs. - Farmers' groups present in Ngazidja (SNAC member) and Nzwani but insufficiently organized. Stockbreeding sector outlook and proposed actions - Intensification of milk cow breeding via natural covering and artificial insemination with highly productive, easily adaptable blood. - Intensification of goat breeding for meat via natural covering and artificial insemination with highly productive and adaptable blood. - Support for semi-industrial poultry farming. - Enhanced health controls at borders and strengthened legislation governing imports of live animals. - Support for players in the livestock subsector. - Human resource capacity building. - Goal to reduce dependence on imports (currently approximately 80 percent of red meat and 80 percent of white meat requirements are imported). ### 3.1.3. FISHING SUBSECTOR — Presentation and performance - Fishing remained primarily traditional until 1985; improvements through agreements with Japan and the EU included fleet and technique improvements, fishing school development, conservation units. - Maritime zone: estimated more than 160,000 square kilometers; 900 square kilometers of continental shelf; 427 kilometers of coastline. - Potential resources estimated at 33,000 tons per annum, 64 percent of which is now exploited. - The sector employs 6 percent of the population (equivalent to 8,500 direct jobs and 24,000 indirect jobs). - Fishing accounted for 12 percent of GDP in 2008 and 5 percent of foreign exchange revenue through exports. - National fish production increased from 6,000 tons in 1985 to 16,200 tons in 2004, leading to discontinuation of fish imports for normal consumption. Fishing subsector strengths - Existence of professional artisan fishing operations. - Extensive motorization: 30 percent of a fleet of 5,000 boats. - More or less functional support and advisory agencies. - Possibility of increasing catches by expanding the fishing zone. - Strong demand for fishing products on national, regional, and international markets. - Unexploited niches: octopuses and squids (cephalopods), lobster, shrimp. - Existence of fishing development strategies (FAO, AAIDA, EU). Fishing subsector weaknesses and constraints - Weak support services and management and planning skills. - Lack of data and information on resources. - Low private participation in fishing activities. - Lack of access to credit. - Absence of a maritime safety system. - Production capacity constraints and overfishing off the coast. - Absence of unloading facilities; lack of electricity and water at fishery sites. - Absence of an organized marketing system; failure to upgrade fishing products destined for external markets. - Discontinuation of support programs revealed human, technical, material, and commercial weaknesses. Fishing subsector outlook and targets - With improved technical and economic environment (improved port infrastructure, land processing, subsidies, other facilities) and implementation of fishing development plans, objectives include: - Increase current level of production by more than 50 percent. - Create more than 5,000 new jobs. - Achieve a substantial increase in the sector's contribution to GDP to approximately 16 percent by 2014. ### 3.2. TOURISM SECTOR — Presentation and performance - Tourism acknowledged to have substantial economic growth and employment potential and linkages to transportation, hotels, trade, building and public works, energy, agriculture, fishing, artisanal industry, telecommunications, cultural events. - Current hotel supply: approximately 472 beds. - Estimated 490 persons employed in the tourism sector. - No domestic hotel training facilities; COI/EU regional tourism program provided specialized seminars to more than 100 hotel sector employees; Tourism Directorate supported training for 150 young persons during the last four years of secondary school. Tourism historical performance - Prior to 1989: business tourism, missions, visits by Comorian expatriates. - Pleasure tourism began in 1989 with opening of Galawa; arrival peak: 27,474 in 1998. - Decline in incoming tourism began in 2000; visits fell from 27,474 in 1998 to approximately 18,900 in 2003. - After closure of Galawa and political instability, current arrivals: 14,000, equivalent to 45 percent of the residual hotel capacity. - Tourism revenue varied from CF 5 billion (4.1 percent of GDP) in 2000 to CF 3 billion in 2005. - Jobs declined from 960 to 490. Tourism sector strengths - Forty-five sites of tourism interest already surveyed. - Abundant natural species; flora including more than one hundred species of orchids. - Remarkable marine fauna species: coelacanths, sea turtles, dugongs. - Rich historical resources: archaeological sites, religious buildings, ancient sultans’ buildings, fortifications, tombs. - Rich and developing craft industries: wood carving, traditional jewelry; skilled labor in cabinet making, wicker work, embroidery. - Cultural wealth: grand wedding ceremonies, songs, dances, Comorian cuisine, CNDRS museum in Moroni, traditional medicine, games, village activities. - Sport activities: diving, deep-sea fishing, mountain hiking. - An attractive investment code. Tourism sector weaknesses and constraints - Insufficient basic infrastructure: roads, ports, airports, energy supplies. - Insufficient city and village sanitation. - Insufficient regional and international air service and very high ticket prices. - Prohibitive rates for water, energy, telecommunications; high interest rates; deficient air, sea, and land transportation. - Insufficient hotel capacities and national and international investments. - Insufficient port and airport accommodation facilities. - Virtually nonexistent legal framework to protect investments; lack of transparency in granting national heritage concessions to the private sector. - Very high cost of visas to enter the country. - Insufficient promotion of Comorian crafts. - Insufficient hotel, restaurant, and guide training. - Absence of a tourism office; no marketing or promotion of the Comoros as a destination. Tourism outlook and strategic aims (government strategy) - Government adopted a sector development strategy in 2005, updated in 2008, aiming to preserve natural and cultural resources, engage local populations, and reduce poverty (ecotourism focus). - Strategy components: - Creation of ecotourism relays and heritage centers of tourism interest. - Marking of hiking paths. - Upgrading of maritime links between the islands. - Improvement in basic infrastructure. - Human resource training. - Promotion and marketing of tourism products. - Creation of a tourism data observatory. - Development of combined regional systems. - Government designated tourism as one of the key growth sectors in the coming years. *Source: CHAPTER III — ANALYSIS OF SECTORAL PERFORMANCE AND CONSTRAINTS (from the provided PDF content).* ### 1. Improve the population's living conditions through: ### _cr10190 - 1. Improve the population's living conditions through: ### Direct local employment - Direct local job creation (lodging, restaurants, and guides); ### Indirect employment and local production - Indirect local job creation (transportation, crafts, agriculture, and fishing); - Creation of a market to stimulate local production such as commercial vegetable growing, stockbreeding, fishing, and crafts; ### Skills and training - Development and diversification of training in the trades; ### Connectivity, accessibility, and public inclusion - Increased passenger and commercial connections between the islands through the establishment of reliable, rapid, and frequent connections; - Making the national tourism area accessible; - Access for the Comorian public to tourism accommodations and leisure activities. * _cr10190 - 1. Improve the population's living conditions through:_ ### 2. Activities respectful of the natural and cultural environment through: ### 2. Activities respectful of the natural and cultural environment through: ### Tourism and cultural preservation - Preservation and development of natural sites. - Organization of cultural activities: - (1) restoration and development of the country’s cultural and historical resources; - (2) development of traditional shows; - (3) development of craft activities. - Role of beneficiaries: village organization movements, local receiving agencies, hotel and restaurant operators, diving clubs, craftspersons, rural communities, fishermen, and natural essence distillers. - Target hotel capacity and employment impact: - Increase hotel capacity to 2,000 beds by 2014. - Intention of creating 2,500 direct jobs. ### Linkage with PRGS - Importance for government that development partners support restoration of the tourism sector in connection with the PRGS. - Emphasis on ecotourism leveraging rich cultural and natural resources. --- ### 3.3. ECONOMIC AND COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE ### Overview - Economic infrastructure includes roads, telecommunications, ports, and airports. - Lack of economic infrastructure is a main obstacle to private sector recovery and poverty reduction. ### 3.3.1. ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE — Road infrastructure Key statistics and distribution: - Total national and regional road system: 849 km. - 665 km asphalted. - 184 km unpaved. - Distribution: - Ngazidja: 58.3 percent (495 km). - Ndzouani: 33.2 percent (256 km). - Mwali: 11.5 percent (98 km). Current characteristics and problems: - Deterioration due to insufficient maintenance. - Uncontrolled increases in heavy truck traffic, primarily in Ngazidja. - Insufficient structure to accommodate use. - Need to make agricultural and fishing production areas more accessible. - Unpaved roads unusable for substantial periods during the year. - Absence of signing. Performance and strengths: - Programmed implementation of a toll to support the road fund to replace the fee now charged under the current law. - Resources generated under the convention on economic citizenship. - Recent establishment of new road companies. - Technical studies/documentation from past consultations; financing obtained for some works. Weaknesses and constraints: - Insufficient national capacity to manage and control road maintenance. - Delays in implementing coordination of new administrative structures (governorates-Union). - Lack of maintenance and failure to comply with road legislation. - Ongoing deterioration from ageing, uncontrolled traffic, and insufficient drainage. - Lack of load controls on the road per axle. - Lack of a road database. - Lack of appropriate logistics for maintenance works. Outlook and expected impacts: - Road construction and maintenance as a source of job creation if labor-intensive technologies are emphasized. - Improved access and reduced transportation costs will impact production costs and prices of consumer goods by increasing circulation of goods and persons. - Well-maintained roads enhance access to government services, health centers, schools, and promote tourism. - Government intends improvement, expansion, and upgrading of platforms and roadways, including village bypasses. - Rehabilitation and extension should promote: - Improved circulation of goods and persons; - Enhanced tourism development; - Reduced maintenance costs for current fleet; - Improved safety conditions; - Access to markets for agricultural and food products; - Job creation. ### 3.3.2. PORT INFRASTRUCTURE Current situation: - Port infrastructure facilitates foreign trade and inter-island commerce but the country is under-equipped. - Occupation rate for berths/docks substantial considering time at dock and increased inter-island traffic. - Ngazidja concentrates 80 percent of commercial activities but has only one deepwater port. - Union signed fishing agreements with the European Union approximately 12 years ago but absence of adequate port structure and stable energy supply prevent full benefit. - Ndzuwani: deepwater port of Mutsamudu (built in 1982) used as transshipment port; silting from river reduces drafts. - Mwali: maritime access established 1999-2001 (Bwangoma) under EDF; project failed to reach specific objective; maritime access use varies 50-70 percent during the year; transferring passengers by canoe is dangerous in rough seas. Operators: - Port facilities operated by private handling companies such as Golf Com (Port of Moroni) and ASC (Port of Mutsamudu). Weaknesses and constraints: - Insufficient organization of harbormaster's office for the Port of Mwali. - Lack of marking for all ports. - Insufficient draft in the Port of Moroni requiring anchorage for most international coastal navigation. - Silting of the Port of Mutsamudu from river sediment. - Lack of protection for Mwali maritime access dock. - Absence of offloading and lifting equipment in Mwali. - Flooding of docks and platforms. - Inability of ports to supply high-quality services to reduce lags in inputs, spare parts, and raw materials. - Numerous breakdowns in maritime traffic system between islands, including absence of designated secondary ports. - Security problems for goods stored in warehouses. - Deficient maritime security system. Outlook and planned works: - Re-examine roles of participants to encourage honoring contractual commitments and reduce port service costs. - Ngazidja: intend to equip with a deepwater port comprising: - A commercial dock; - A transshipment dock for fish, including appropriate refrigeration facilities. - Ndzuwani (Port of Mutsamudu) proposed works: - Construction of a dam upstream from the city of Mutsamudu to retain sediments/materials carried by the river; - Dredging to restore original drafts; - Bypass of the Mutsamudu river from a point upstream from the south platform access dock to the outside of the basin. - Mwali maritime access improvements: - Make maritime access similar to port access and reduce swells that hinder approaches; - Protect breakwater from swells exceeding 0.5 meter and as much as 6 meters or more reaching the bay delta. ### 3.3.3. AIRPORT INFRASTRUCTURE Infrastructure and airports: - Moroni Prince Said Ibrahim Airport (AIMPSI) in Hahaya, Ngazidja (international). - Secondary airports: Ouani in Ndzuani and Bandar-Salama in Mwali. - Airports service international and inter-island air links; traffic fairly limited. Current problems: - Deteriorated runways at secondary airports. - Absence of safety (fire and rescue) equipment. - Lack of fences in all three airports. - Issues compromise the security of inter-island air transport. Performance and strengths: - Membership in the Air Navigation Safety Agency (ASECNA) improves air safety and navigation. - Construction of a new AIMPSI air terminal, rehabilitation of the runway, and extension of gates. Weaknesses and constraints: - Ageing landing strip at the international airport can compromise air safety for large aircraft. - Limited space in passenger arrival hall. - Insufficient organizational system. - Secondary airports characterized by: - Limited accommodation capacity for planes and passengers; - Insufficient air navigation equipment (weather and radio communication); - Absence of runway markings; - Insufficient fences to protect runways and hangar; - Absence of a fire safety system. Outlook: - Efficient, secure airports required for tourism sector growth and air freight development. ### 3.3.4. TELECOMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE Evolution and services: - Telecommunications diversified in 2004 with SNPT establishing a mobile telephone network. - 2005 split of SNPT into Comores Télécom and Société Nationale des Postes et des Services Financiers (SNPSF) led to CDMA, ADSL, and GSM extension. Performance and strengths: - Rapid growth in installed lines owing to demand from new customers. - Installation of telephone booths in rural areas. - Gradual improvement in telephone coverage with micro-centers. - Improvement and reinforcement of the institutional framework. - Existence of a sectoral information and communication technology (ICT) policy. Weaknesses and constraints: - Accidented relief making coverage difficult in certain regions. - Obsolete wiring system. - Inefficient telecommunication services at costs deemed high. - Institutional and legal framework not observed. - Nonconformity with public contracting regulations. - Excessive maintenance intervention time (faults). Outlook and government intentions: - Rehabilitation of existing fixed telephone system to enhance access. - Focus on increasing capacity of networks to ensure: - Greater access to services at reasonable prices for all islands; - More fluid connections with the rest of the world; - Effective promotion of tourism through websites; - Easier communications within the Comoros and with Comorian expatriate community; - Liberalization of the telecommunication sector. --- ### 3.4. ENERGY, WATER, AND SANITATION SECTOR ### 3.4.1. ENERGY SUBSECTOR Energy balance and usage: - Main energy source: wood — 78 percent of energy requirements. - Hydrocarbons: 20 percent. - Other sources (electricity, butane gas, etc.): approximately 2 percent of household consumption. Characteristics and key figures: - Low levels of energy consumption: 122 ktep in 2001, equivalent to 0.2 tep per capita. - Electricity production based essentially on thermal power plants with total installed power of 24 MW. - Low overall efficiency in the electrical system: less than 45 percent for the overall country. - Electricity production capacity losses of approximately 55 percent attributable to fraud, illegal hook-ups, technical network deficiencies, and low recovery rates. - Available power of 7 MW falls short of the balance of 15 MW. - The most recent rate study dates back more than 20 years. Strengths and opportunities: - Community participation in village electrification projects. - Government policy makes energy sector a national priority. - Substantial demand for electricity in rural and urban areas. - Willingness of strategic partners to accompany development. - Execution of studies to expand capacities to store petroleum products, development studies for electrical network, and preliminary production studies for hydroelectric, thermal, and geothermal energy. - Real renewable potential (hydroelectric, solar, biomass, wind, geothermal). Weaknesses and constraints: - Absence of a sectoral energy policy and strategy. - Failure to clarify institutional and regulatory framework. - Absence of a sectoral master plan for energy. - Narrow energy market limits economies of scale. - Lack of financing to increase production capacity and rehabilitate power plants. - Difficulties experienced by state companies in public service; ongoing recovery problems. - Low energy autonomy: supply problems and insufficient storage capacities for hydrocarbons. - Very high costs per kilowatt hour compared with current rates. - Very high consumer prices. - Failure to exploit new and renewable energy sources. - Insufficient capacity building for human resources and technology transfer. - Lack of energy response in emergency situations. - Disorganized biomass exploitation (wood-energy). Outlook and policy actions: - Devise an energy sector policy and strategy. - Clarify institutional and regulatory framework. - Prepare a master plan for the energy sector. - Establish an energy control program (control consumption of wood fuels for environmental conservation). - Strengthen and secure energy production and distribution (increase electricity access rates by extension). - Update existing studies. - Promote substitute energy sources. - Near-term target: upgrading renewable energy sources should lead to an increase from less than 1 percent to approximately 20 percent of produced energy or installed power. - Goals: - Use energy resources other than diesel fuel; - Build human capacities and strengthen technology transfers. ### 3.4.2. DRINKING WATER SUBSECTOR Water sources and historical systems: - Three water sources: (1) surface water; (2) groundwater; (3) rainwater collection. - Nzwani and Mwali depend on surface flows; Ngazidja primarily on rainwater collection and groundwater. - First water systems in Nzwani and Mwali during the 1960s; Ngazidja had first water system in Moroni from a well six kilometers south of the capital about 15 years later. - 1980s UNDP project equipped Ngazidja with 22 exploitable wells on the island belt. Household access statistics (2004 comprehensive survey): - Public standpipes: 30.6 percent. - Collection of rainwater in cisterns: 24.2 percent. - Home hook-ups: 15 percent. - More than half of households in Ngazidja use rainwater collected in cisterns. Public health concern: - No national water quality policy; sources often unhealthy, reflecting prevalence of waterborne diseases such as diarrhea and typhoid. Performance and strengths: - Existence of UNDP wells on Ngazidja coast to increase access. - Favorable rainfall levels countrywide. - Permanent rivers and waterways in Ndzani and Mwali. - Willingness of communities to help finance and support projects. - Technical expertise at national water and electricity company to accompany implementation. - Studies on expansion of water networks countrywide. - Beneficiary communities prepared to gradually take charge of their water systems. - Availability of development partners and NGOs. Weaknesses and constraints: - Absence of a sectoral water policy and strategy. - Failure to clarify institutional and regulatory framework. - Absence of a sectoral master plan for water. - Lack of databases on water access. - High costs of groundwater projects requiring substantial modern technologies. - Lack of coordination and communication between actors. - Insufficient technical capacities in management of water systems. - Lack of equipment and support mechanisms for water systems. - Water from different networks not systematically treated. - Lack of adequate maintenance for water systems. - Water is free and water system operating costs are not recovered. Outlook and priorities: - Preparing a master plan for water is an absolute priority. - Redefine institutional and regulatory framework. - Institutionalize sectoral approach to water in the Comoros. - Promote human resource capacity building and technology transfer. - Regulate water treatment and make it compulsory. - Strengthen water production, transportation, and distribution infrastructure. - Upgrade existing sources. - Increase user awareness that water system operating costs must be recovered. ### 3.4.3. SANITATION SUBSECTOR Current situation and problems: - Accelerated demographic growth and urban development increased household waste (approximately 1 cubic meter per person). - Increase in untreated hospital waste and transport-related waste (drained motor oil, vehicle bodies). - Waste production not covered by appropriate organized collection or treatment; major public health problem. - Wastewater and rain management major concern in urban and rural areas; unresolved in most cities. - Rubbish piles in city centers produce fetid odors and visual pollution. Performance and strengths: - Substantial community involvement in rehabilitation works for wastewater drainage pipes and gutters. Weaknesses and constraints: - Uncontrolled growth of conurbations and proliferation of informal dwellings. - Absence of an urban development plan and urban planning scheme. - Absence of regulatory framework for solid and liquid waste management. - Lack of latrines in community areas. - Lack of waste management and available landfill sites. - Absence of sanitation policy and tools. - Increasing production of natural and human waste materials. - Intense degradation of ecosystems. - Nonexistence of waste management systems. Outlook and planned activities: - Improve quality of life and hygiene in urban areas and end runaway development of conurbations. - Develop technical, material, and organizational capacities to implement a waste collection and disposal system. - Promote sustainable planning of conurbations while protecting resources and limiting environmental pollution. - Mobilize resources to implement national policy on environment and the environmental action plan enabling: - Complete the master plan for development of urban areas; - Provide effective sanitation in residential areas; - Implement a system to improve waste management; - Assign priority to establishment of landfill sites for solid waste materials; - Plan construction of appropriate latrines in community and urban areas. --- ### 3.5. ENVIRONMENT ### Context and trends - Environmental degradation affecting all natural resources and undermining production base. - Observed forms: land degradation (57 percent of agricultural land), deforestation (500 hectares per year), and poor natural resource management. - Lack of management tools for urban areas and coastal zones and absence of integrated policies reflecting cross-cutting environmental issues. - Erosion of biological diversity in marine/coastal areas and forests reduces self-renewal of land and water ecosystems. - Potential impacts of climate irregularities include accelerated loss of coastal land strips, reduction of agricultural and fish production, contamination of coastal water tables with seawater, and displacement of more than 10 percent of the coastal population. SIDS parallels: - Environmental constraints mirror Small Island Developing States (SIDS) under Agenda 21 and the Barbados Plan of Action: ecological and economic fragility; vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters; insufficient response and management capacity; narrow resource base; high energy costs. ### Strengths and opportunities - Archipelago and territorial waters house ecosystems of remarkable scientific and esthetic value, with high levels of endemism and emblematic species. - Comoros ranks high for biodiversity conservation globally and is classified as a “Hot Spot” for world diversity. - Substantial genetic resources: medicinal, aromatic, fodder, and farming species; preserved genotypic characteristics (e.g., vanilla). - Eligibility for international/regional fair trade networks to support farmer incomes. - Traditional agroforestry practices provide conservation and production strengths: permanent soil cover, reduced erosion, water supply promotion, habitat and biodiversity sustainment. - Opportunities in eco-services due to abundant rainfall, renewable energy potential, and fertile unpolluted land. - Classification as a Carbon Sink offers avenues for sustainable financing. - Karthala Volcano offers geothermal and ecotourism potential. ### Key challenges and obstacles - Environmental management challenges: adaptation to climate change; preservation of biodiversity; biological security; integrated coastal management; access to basic sanitation and urban environmental management; sustainable natural resource management; disaster risk preparation/response. - Ecosystem constraints include: clearing/deforestation; lack of land regulation and security policies; absence of mechanisms to update/implement regulatory texts; unclear institutional responsibilities; extraction of coastal resources (sand, pebbles, coral, mangroves); inappropriate occupation of arable land; unsustainable fishing practices (dynamite, small mesh nets, coral-based fishing, toxic/chemical substances); absence of sanitation and integrated waste management systems. - Tensions from overexploitation and poor management reflect failure to define natural resource ownership rights and to assess ecological services. ### Climate disturbances and disaster risks - Climate disturbances worsen pressures on soils, forests, and ecosystems, especially coastal/sea environments. - Climate manifestations: elevated sea levels, floods, storms, tidal waves, accentuated seasonal phenomena leading to: - Coastal erosion destroying infrastructure (roads, seawalls, habitats, loss of land); - Reduced agricultural and fishing production; - Contamination of coastal water tables with seawater; - Increased risks of pandemics (malaria, cholera, typhoid, etc.); - Displacement of 10 percent of the coastal population. - Disaster risks include cyclones, drought, epidemics, tornadoes, brush fires, tidal waves, floods, major accidents, landslides, volcano eruptions, and earthquakes; vulnerability aggravated by insufficient capacity to prepare/prevent/respond. ### Key stakes and principles for action - Three general stakes: - Include environmental protection measures in adaptive, regulated development, emphasizing economy-ecology symbiosis; - Use environmental solutions to contribute to poverty reduction via sustainable solutions to inappropriate development impacts; - Confirm cross-cutting, multidimensional nature of environmental problems beyond sectoral views. - Premises guiding priority actions: - Reconcile poverty reduction and respect for the environment; - Support rational use of natural resources and development of alternative solutions; - Promote sustainable management and reconstitution of forest resources and degraded land; - Promote decentralized management of natural resources and voluntary community involvement. --- ### 3.6. GOVERNANCE AND SOCIAL COHESION ### Context and systemic issues - Governance defined as values, policies, institutions for managing economic, political, and social affairs across government, civil society, and private sector. - Political instability since independence undermined governance, social dialog, and rule of law, producing weakened government authority, dysfunctional institutions, undermined national cohesion, nonobservance of legal/regulatory texts, and entrenchment of poverty. - Public solidarity relies on village/region/island identity more than the Union due to perception of uneven resource distribution, incomplete decentralization, insufficient dialog mechanisms, and limited opportunities for youth. ### Social protection and labor market - Social security system virtually nonexistent; collective provident schemes rudimentary. - ILO report: in 2003 less than 5,000 beneficiaries, representing under 1 percent of population. - Legal framework for social security dates to colonial era; limited coverage for government employees and claimants regarding occupational risks, illness, disability, death, family support. - Job market dominated by informal sector: - Non-agricultural informal economy accounts for approximately 16.2 percent of national employment (EIM 2004). - Unemployment rate increased from 10.4 percent in 1995 to 13.5 percent in 2004. - Urban unemployment: 14.7 percent; rural unemployment: 13.1 percent. - Youth unemployment (15-24 years): 44.6 percent. - Women’s unemployment: 19.2 percent versus 9.2 percent for men. ### Public administration and fiscal pressures - Government remains leading employer with problems: bloated workforce, delays in wage and service payments leading to reduced purchasing power, absenteeism, permissiveness, corruption, saturation, and abusive recruitment. - Wage bill absorbs more than 70 percent of real revenue (85 percent according to the IMF mission estimates), constraining state ability to cover expenses. - Centralization in capital penalizes peripheral populations; decentralization initiated by Constitution of December 23, 2001 provides four levels of power: federal, island, regional, local—but decentralization incomplete. ### Vital statistics and legal system - Vital statistics system characterized by insufficient use, incomplete/unsatisfactory data, suspected fraud, and virtually no information on expatriate communities. - Legal system combines French law, ancestral customs, and Islamic law causing juridical uncertainties and contradictions; Comorian law not always aligned with ratified conventions. - National Assembly tasked with reforming legislation but lacks material and human resources. - Judiciary characterized by insufficient institutional organization; shortage of qualified staff; lack of operating resources; incomplete organization of basic courts; shortage of magistrates and associate personnel; weak supervision and motivation of clerks, bailiffs, and judicial police. - Execution of court decisions hampered by absence of an executive body; penitentiary system inadequate with remand homes in disrepair, noncompliant with international human rights standards; lack of separate quarters for women and juveniles; penitentiary staff undertrained and ill-equipped. ### Human rights, gender, and elections - Human rights issues not prominent despite legislation; gap between law and reality with violations by those supposed to uphold them. - Children and women’s rights often not respected; juveniles subject to sexual exploitation, violence, neglect; few care or psychosocial support schemes. - Early marriages persist despite legal age established at 18. - Low participation of women in public decision-making; women concentrated in informal economy: 17 percent in trade and 49.9 percent in agriculture. - Government drafted documents to improve women and children’s conditions: ratification of international instruments, adoption of Family Code, national policy on gender equity and equality, national strategy to protect vulnerable children; national commission on human rights and liberties law passed in 2006 but yet to be promulgated. - Electoral framework: - Direct universal suffrage introduced in Constitutions. - Electoral law adopted/amended in January 2007 establishing CENI, CIE, SAP, SNAP, SIAP. - Election structures lack technical capacities and resources; electors have insufficient knowledge of rights/obligations. - Constitutional Court (established 2004) oversees constitutionality and electoral operations. ### Security and international obligations - Increase in criminal activity; need to strengthen national security. - Security Council Resolution 1373 (September 28, 2001) links terrorism with organized crime and has implications on legal systems, financial control, and justice administration. ### Strengths and progresses - Introduction by Constitutions of direct universal suffrage at all levels. - Establishment of Constitutional Court. - Ratification of several international conventions on human rights and business law. - Adoption of national laws/acts on social security, decent work, gender, family, vulnerable children, judiciary organization, national statistics, emergency preparation/response. - Compilation of legislative and regulatory texts on civil rights and business law. - Compilation of national and international texts on protection of women and children. - Availability of projects/strategies: vital statistics rehabilitation project, national statistics development strategy, demographic and health survey project paper, national policy on gender equity and equality and action plan, national disaster preparation and response plan. - Existence and involvement of public agencies and NGOs in defense/promotion of human rights. ### Weaknesses and constraints (selected) - Political instability preventing adoption of legislative/regulatory texts. - Conflicts of authority impeding institutions. - Execution of certain revenue/expenditure outside budget/control procedures. - Abuses: overbilling, acquisition of assets at high prices, transfers at nominal prices. - Absence of parliamentary control of budget execution. - State inability to honor commitments (irregular wage payments, debt to private sector). - Inappropriate civil service recruitment burdening the wage bill. - Failure to complete decentralization. - Inefficient vital statistics and national statistics systems. - Endemic corruption. - Rudimentary social security mechanisms and limited job supply. - Dysfunctional judiciary; failure to enforce judgments; insufficient tribunal resources. - Failure to promulgate law on national human rights and liberties commission. ### Outlook and policy recommendations - Prior conditions for governance effectiveness in PRGS: - Strengthen social cohesion, consolidate peace, establish social security, fight corruption, respect human rights, and establish a sound justice system. - Complete decentralization to bring government closer to people. - Justice and security as key instruments to ensure fundamental liberties and reduce poverty. - Establish transparent anticorruption systems and comprehensive application of laws/regulations (independent audits, civil society and media involvement, competent jurisdictions). - Integrate promotion of human rights into implementation of all development and poverty reduction programs. - Establish a National Commission on Human Rights and Liberties. - Base PRGS on positive developments in institutional framework to propose mechanisms to restore good governance and strengthen political, economic, and social dimensions to restore growth and reduce poverty. --- ### 3.7. EDUCATION SECTOR ### Rationale and systems - Education essential for socioeconomic development at macro and micro levels. - Education sector comprises formal and informal systems. Formal education levels: - Preschool education; - Elementary education; - Secondary education; - Technical education and occupational training; - Higher education and research. Informal education: - Education for young people and adults; - Trade apprenticeship and literacy. Key structural notes: - National scholastic charter divides system into 18 regional academic inspection districts (CIPR): two in Mwali, five in Ndzouani, and 10 in Ngazidja. - CIPRs managed by primary school education inspectors assisted by academic advisors. Institutional composition (schools and higher education): - Public elementary schools: 308 (24 in Mwali, 111 in Ndzouani, 183 in Ngazidja). - Private elementary schools: 85. - Lower secondary (public): 53 colleges (6 in Mwali, 14 in Ndzouani, 27 in Ngazidja) plus 89 private colleges (4 in Mwali, 27 in Ndzouani, 58 in Ngazidja). - Upper secondary (public): 10 secondary schools (1 in Mwali, 5 in Ndzouani, 4 in Ngazidja) and 62 private institutions (2 in Mwali, 17 in Ndzouani, 43 in Ngazidja). - Higher education: University of the Comoros with Faculties, Institutes, and Schools including Faculty of Arts and Humanities; Faculty of Law and Economics; Faculty of Science and Technology; Imam Chafiou Faculty; Teacher Training and Education Research Institute (IFERE); University Institute of Technology (IUT); School of Medicine and Public Health (EMSP). ### Enrollment and trends (2003 and 2007) - Total enrollment (2006-2007): 151,335 students, up 0.9 percent from 2003 (145,969). - Distribution by level (table reflected in source): - Pre-elementary education (community and private): Persons 2003 = 1,618; 2007 = 2,720; Increase = 13.9. - Elementary education, public and private: Persons 2003 = 104,274 (% 71.4); 2007 = 104,418 (% 69.0); Increase = 0.0. - Lower secondary education, public and private: Persons 2003 = 25,689 (% 17.6); 2007 = 27,256 (% 18.0); Increase = 1.5. - Upper secondary education, public and private: Persons 2003 = 11,962 (% 8.2); 2007 = 13,862 (% 9.2); Increase = 3.8. - Higher and technical education, public: Persons 2003 = 2,426 (% 1.7); 2007 = 3,079 (% 2.0); Increase = 6.1. - Total 2003: 145,969 (100); 2007: 151,335 (100.0); Increase = 0.9. - Source: Ministry of National Education, Management Indicators 2002/2003, 2004, and 2006/2007. - Note: Latest school census in 1999 registered 2,500 Koranic schools (Palashio) comprising 96,752 students, all ages combined. Key observations: - Preschool: Koranic schools widespread; pilot restructuring in 2003 integrated 12 rural pilot schools and one reference school into formal system in May 2009; preschool enrollment rose from 1,618 (2003) to 2,720 (2007) — average increase 13.9 percent per annum. Share of school enrollment in community schools: 53.2 percent. - Elementary: Enrollment remained ~104,000 (2003–2007). Girls’ enrollment increased from 46,225 to 48,582 (+1.3 percent nationally). Proportion of girls rose from 44 percent (2003) to 47 percent (2007). Enrollment expanded at ~2.4 percent per annum (matching demographic growth). Private sector share stable at 10 percent. - Gross school enrollment rate declined approximately 6.7 points between 2003 and 2007 (94.8 percent in 2007 vs. 101.5 percent in 2003) nationally. - Girls’ school enrollment grew faster than boys’: girls’ average growth rate 1.3 percent per annum; enrollment rate for girls increased from 66.4 percent (2003) to 70.9 percent (2007). Trend toward equal gross admission rates between boys and girls noted particularly in Ndzuani. Elimination of school enrollment fees appears to yield results. - Gap between primary school enrollment rate for boys and girls declined from 13.24 to 4.07 points nationally (2003–2007), though gaps remained wider in Ngazidja and Mwali and more pronounced in rural/poor households. Systemic issues and programmatic notes: - 2002-2003 primary subsector provision of one textbook per student for French, mathematics, and science; subsequent management failures limited continuation. - Textbook rental policy led to payment problems and dropouts; poor school-board management of funds caused operating problems in some schools. - Supervision: CIPRs have educational advisors and inspectors to improve teacher training and continuing education; however, rehired teacher trainers lacked proper profiles and sector faces resource shortages (teaching materials, logistics). - Secondary enrollment increased from 37,651 to 41,118 (2003–2007), equivalent to 2.2 percent increase per year with 45 percent girls. Upper secondary slight increase in proportion of girls (46.7 percent in 2007 vs. 44.1 percent in 2003). - Share of private sector in secondary education declined slightly (source text cuts off mid-sentence). *Document: _cr10190 - 2. Activities respectful of the natural and cultural environment through:* ### 41.1 percent to 36.8 percent during the period. The gross admission rate observed in 2007 was ### _cr10190 - 41.1 percent to 36.8 percent during the period. The gross admission rate observed in 2007 was ### Education sector — Current situation and performance - Gross admission and enrollment - Gross admission rate observed in 2007 was 34.9 percent, as against 40.5 percent in 2003. - Gross admission rate declined from 41.1 percent to 36.8 percent during the period (contextual period in source). - Infrastructure and access - Most institutions, particularly at the secondary level, are in an advanced state of disrepair. - Accommodation capacities are quite limited; some schools, particularly at the primary and secondary levels, are forced to turn enrollment-aged children away. - Nearly 78 percent of the 1,735 existing classrooms are used in double shifts. - Subsector attendance - Technical education and vocational training remain the least attended subsectors owing to insufficient facilities and little investment. - Human resources and teacher supply - Primary level teachers increased from 2,488 to 3,069 between 2003 and 2007, equivalent to an increase of 5.4 percent. - Secondary level public school teachers increased by approximately 6.0 percent per year (equivalent to 1,184 in 2007, as compared with 938 in 2003). - Student-per-teacher ratios decreased during 2003-2007: - Primary level: from 37.7 to 30.2. - Secondary level: from 23.6 to 21.9 (all levels combined). - Learning outcomes and retention - Promotion rates between levels are very low; repeater and dropout rates remain high at all levels. - Primary level repeater rate varies between 22 percent and 29 percent between the islands. - Primary level dropout rate is in the range of 2-15 percent. - Many children leave primary school without acquiring essential knowledge and skills for day-to-day life. - Informal and adult education - Estimated total illiteracy rate of 40.9 percent per the MICS 2000/GCP 2001. - Education for youth dropouts and adults is neglected; no coherent policy and very few programs; virtually no literacy and training centers. - Fiscal and management constraints - While the budget allocated to education occupies a substantial share of the state budget, more than 80 percent of this budget is devoted to wages. - Management and administration register insufficient human, technical, and financial resources. - Problems compounded by school management in the context of decentralization since 2002. - Quality impediments and classroom inputs - Insufficient motivation for supervisors (status), insufficient training time (particularly at the primary level), limited access to textbooks, and lack of educational and didactic support for teachers. - Insufficient knowledge of the teaching languages, particularly French, by teachers and students at all levels. ### Education sector — Weaknesses and constraints (enumerated) - Mismatch between demand for enrollment and public supply; limited accommodation capacity forcing schools to turn away children. - School environments that are not motivating or safe; many schools dilapidated; most schools have no water or latrines. - Formal system lacks organizations to cover and protect early childhood education; Koranic schools operate at the margin without administrative or educational control. - Most teaching staff, especially at the primary level, lack required qualifications or educational training. - Insufficient initial and continuing training for secondary level teachers; weaknesses in training institutions. - Insufficient current resources for primary education and virtually no inspections at the secondary level. - Increase in private institutions without accompaniment or supervision measures. - Absence of an active, adequate technical education and occupational training network. - Persistent enrollment disparities between boys and girls, urban and rural areas, and wealthy and poor households. - Non-diversified higher education with limited supply and quality. - Nonexistence of an appropriate structure and policy for youth dropouts, non-enrolled persons, and illiterate adults. - Insufficient steering of the education system (design, planning, management, monitoring and assessment, resource mobilization and management). - School charter not observed, causing imbalance between supply and demand and inefficient resource use. - Absence of specialized child school health monitoring services contributing to absenteeism and dropping out. - Decline in annual time schedule due to frequent strikes. - Insufficient coverage of education in emergency situations. ### Education sector — Outlook and policy priorities - Integrate early childhood education into the formal system by restructuring the subsector, harmonizing programs and teacher training methods, generalizing discovery and play activities, and promoting active learning mechanisms (drawing from DIJEC and pilot phase with UNICEF). - Intensify efforts to reach Education for All (EFA) objectives by horizon 2015 in accordance with the National Education for All Plan (NAP/EFA), particularly to: - Develop and innovate in early childhood education and protection. - Ensure free, universal, compulsory school enrollment, providing quality education at the primary level. - Eliminate all forms of inequalities in primary and secondary school enrollment, particularly strengthening education for girls. - Strengthen access to and quality of secondary education and diversify education supply. - Promote technical education and occupational training and offer young people opportunities to acquire practical skills. - Improve literacy levels of young people and adults. - Develop, diversify, and strengthen quality higher education at the University of the Comoros. - Strengthen capacities in planning, administration, and management of the education system; establish an efficient strategy to optimize and rationalize use and allocation of human, material, and financial resources. ### Health sector — System structure and access - National Health Development Plan (PNDS) – 2015 Outlook is the benchmark under the National Health Plan (PNS); community participation and health districts are central. - Pyramid structure with three levels of organizational competence: central (Union), intermediary (island), and peripheral (Health Districts). - Health Districts: seven in Ngazidja, seven in Ndzouani, and three in Mwali. - Network supplemented by clinics (Armed Forces, CARITAS, private sector) and 49 peripheral community health units. - Geographic accessibility: geographic accessibility to a health center in a 5-kilometer radius is estimated at 63 percent. - Recommended efforts: staff training, rehabilitation and re-equipment of certain health units, low-cost availability of essential medicines to raise utilization. ### Health sector — Performance, morbidity, and service gaps - Quality and quantity of health services have deteriorated due to: - Insufficient technology level, obsolete biomedical and medical technology equipment, inadequate maintenance. - Inadequate performance of the pharmaceutical sector. - Shortage of qualified personnel and poor management and motivation. - Weak partnership with NGOs and civil society; disorganized community-built infrastructure; facilities not meeting quality standards. - Partial application of the health development plan and insufficient coordination and steering. - Population-related factors: increasing impoverishment, insufficient public awareness, high costs of health services, inadequate accommodation in health units, shortage/absence of doctors and medical technicians. - Anarchic private sector development has undermined quality and accessibility; no national policy to care for indigents; network of mutual health associations is being developed. - Disease burden and indicators: - Malaria is the number one cause of morbidity and mortality in children under five. - Other persistent diseases: intestinal parasites, lymphatic filariasis, acute respiratory infections, diarrhea; potential epidemic diseases include arboviroses (dengue fever and Chikungunya virosis). - Noncommunicable disease concerns: mental illness, blindness, cancer, sugar diabetes, cardiovascular disease, hypertension; data are essentially nonexistent. - Immunization and life expectancy: - Immunization coverage for the six EPI illnesses declined from 90 percent during the 1990s to less than 70 percent in 2004. - Life expectancy at birth increased from 55 years of age in 1991 to 63 in 2002. - Maternal and child health indicators (Table of reproductive health monitoring indicators) - Mortality rate of children less than five years old (per 1,000 live births): 1991 = 130; 1996 = 104; 2000 = 74. - Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births): 1991 = 86.3; 1996 = 77.3; 2000 = 59; 2003 = 79.3. - One year-old children effectively immunized against measles (percent): 1996 = 48; 2000 = 56.3; 2003 = 71.08. - Maternal mortality rate (per 100,000 live births): 1991 = 570; 2000 = 517; 2003 = 381. - Proportion of births assisted by qualified personnel (percent): 1996 = 52; 2000 = 62. - HIV/AIDS and STIs - HIV prevalence in 2003 was 0.025 percent. - Surveys show little knowledge of HIV transmission and prevention; frequency of other STIs in symptomatic men and sex workers may contribute to spread. ### Health sector — Strengths and weaknesses - Strengths - Existence of a national health program (PNS). - A national plan to develop the health information system (PNDSIS) is being prepared. - Decision-making agencies established (CNS, CTNS, CCM, CNLS, etc.). - Office of the Inspector General for Health established; a new health code adopted. - Authorities expressed willingness to harmonize state institutions under the new Fundamental Law of May 17, 2009. - Primary and secondary health facilities are geographically accessible; community involvement; Master Plan for Health Information Sector adopted. - Capacity building in progress for health workers; National Order of Physicians, Pharmacists, and Medical Biologists exists; PNAC (essential drug purchasing center) exists. - Development partners show interest; associative dynamics and diaspora involvement in health financing. - Weaknesses and constraints - Absence of clarification in official texts defining functional relations between central government and autonomous islands following the Fundamental Law of May 17, 2009. - Insufficient financial contribution from the state, which is below the recommended 15 percent. - Absence of innovative mechanisms; insufficient technical level; qualitative and quantitative shortage of health personnel. - Absence of care for indigents; no generalized social security policy. - Human resource problems: lack of career plans; limited managers for certain personnel categories; poor distribution; high mobility; low motivation. - Insufficient health information system and inadequate use of services by the population. - Conflicts between community management bodies and health personnel; insufficient dissemination and application of regulatory texts. - Frequent depletion of essential drug supplies; high cost of medicines. - Failure of the National Order to function fully; district pharmacies not operational; brain drain increased. - Personnel insufficiently motivated due to irregular wage payments and poor working conditions. ### Private sector and microenterprise overview - Structure and scale - Estimated 49,000 private enterprises in the Comoros (formal and informal sectors). - More than 93 percent of these are microenterprises; approximately 6 percent small and medium-scale enterprises; less than 1 percent large enterprises. - Sectoral composition by number of enterprises: - Agrofood: 63 percent. - Fishing: 18 percent. - Trade: 11 percent. *Italicized source attribution: IMF staff report content as provided in the source PDF.* ### 0.1 percent and tourism 0.4 percent of the total number of private enterprises. ### _cr10190 - 0.1 percent and tourism 0.4 percent of the total number of private enterprises. ### Private sector structure and employment - 0.1 percent and tourism 0.4 percent of the total number of private enterprises. - The modern, organized private sector employs approximately 8,000 persons, equivalent to 30 percent fewer persons than the public sector. - The private sector remains largely unstructured, historically dominated by a few cash crop processing and import-export companies. - Since the 1980s a new generation of modern enterprises has emerged seeking import substitution through locally-produced goods. - Many small-scale enterprises and industries (SME-SMI) in manufacturing and processing are scarce; more such enterprises operate in the informal sector, particularly in the grocery trade. - Recent institutional changes: - In 2007, The Comoros Employers’ Organization (OPACO) reorganized with more professional management. - Transfer of the Chamber of Commerce to private transactors. - Emergence of new organizations: Comorian private sector federation and national federation of Comorian farmers. - In 2009 plans for the Chamber of Commerce, Industry, and Agriculture of Ngazidja to implement the Professional Organizations House with trade services capacity building program support. - Public-private dialogue is insufficient; public sector activities sometimes conflict with private sector promotion, and lack of a cooperation framework and suspicion towards the private sector limit investment willingness and capacity. - Some encouraging signs from the National Agency for Investment (ANPI): potential joint ventures between Comorian private enterprises and major international groups for major works and property investments. ### Private sector strengths - The main strengths for private sector promotion: - The Comoros’ membership in the euro/franc area ensures that the Comorian currency is relatively stable. - Membership in subregional groups: Indian Ocean Commission—COI, Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa—COMESA, Community of Sahel-Saharan States—CEN-SAD, Greater Arab Free Trade Area—GAFTA, Organization of the Islamic Conference—OCI, Islamic Development Bank—IsDB, Union of Chambers of Commerce and Industry of the Indian Ocean—UCCIOI. - Future economic partnership agreement between the EU and COMESA under the Cotonou agreements offering access opportunities to the European market and the free trade area (ZLE). - Membership/participation advantages: African Growth and Opportunity Framework (AGOA), Uniform Acts of OHADA, Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) Convention; SID and SIASE (IsDB investment insurance), Integrated Framework. - Membership in the League of Arab Nations providing access to the Arab market and a platform to access the Gulf States. - Membership has been undertaken in the World Traded Organization. - Enlargement of Saïd Ibrahim International Airport and alignment with international standards. - Integration in globalization and liberalization: liberalization and opening of the telecommunication market. - Implementation of the submarine fiber optics cable in connection with the East Africa Submarine Cable System (EASSY) Project. - Government commitment to implement a framework favorable to private sector expansion through state divestiture from trade sector to focus on customary public services. - Strengthening of employment and social security policies. - Existence of a new, modern, and attractive investment code based on performance-oriented incentives and operation of the ANPI. - Program to strengthen trade services and availability of sectoral studies (vanilla, ylang ylang, and other spices). ### Private sector weaknesses and constraints - Key constraints facing private sector development: - The absence of follow-up on commitments undertaken reduces investor visibility. - An inflated tertiary sector dominated by the informal sector. - A virtually nonexistent secondary sector limited to a few small and medium-scale enterprises. - Limited opportunities for bank financing. - Absence of foreign trade promotion structures. - Insufficient commercial representative offices abroad. - Absence of a clear policy on enterprises. - The legal system does not provide effective support for rapid litigation processing and elimination of arbitrary practices in certain tax services. - Insufficient skilled labor. - Absence of corporate and management culture. ### Financial and microfinance subsector composition and recent developments - The financial sector registered substantial growth during the past five years; in 2007 the banking system had only one commercial bank, and by 2009 new banks and microfinance institutions had opened. - Financial sector components: - Banque pour l’Industrie et le Commerce (BIC) accounts for more than 60 percent of the savings and credit market. - Banque de Développement des Comores (BDC) serves a limited number of SMEs due to substantial transaction procedures and costs; it does not take deposits and draws borrowing resources from foreign institutions. When BDC resumed operations in 2008, it began to focus on microfinance activities; new enterprise financing activities were suspended to strengthen existing enterprises and finance their development. - The National Postal and Financial Services Company (SNPSF), established in 2005, introduced postal checks in 2006. - Two microfinance institution networks (Sanduk and Meck) are developing quickly; Meck was licensed by the BCC in November 2005. - In 2009 the establishment of two new commercial banks is observed: Exim Bank (operating as a representative office) and Banque Fédérale du Commerce; two postal service offices were opened in France to facilitate transfers from Comorian expatriates. - Western Union’s monopoly on fund transfers faces competition from Travelex and Money Gram since 2008. - UNDP AMIE program provides microcredit in the range of CF 50,000-500,000 based initially on a credit facility provided by UNDP; AMIE is now an independent association working closely with the Mecks network. ### Financial and microfinance performance, strengths, and statistics - Formal financial intermediation is ineffective: some savings are reinjected into the economy through loans and productive investments, which register a sharply declining trend; formal institutions mainly finance commercial and seasonal cash crop activities. - The financial system has long been in a position of excess liquidity, although the economic cycle has led to credit tightening; currently the financial system is facing a liquidity shortage and savings must be stimulated to ensure civil service wages can be paid. - Banks are no longer investing in the productive sector due to perceived substantial risks and pessimistic enterprise profitability outlook. - Microfinance emergence and coverage: - Caisses Sanduk: network of 55 banks covering all islands. - Mutuelle d’Épargne et de Crédit des Komor (Meck): 13 branches across the three islands. - Growth indicators and figures: - The share of savings increased from 15 percent in 2001 to 27 percent in 2004, and the share of credit from 12 percent in 2001 to 28 percent in 2004. - Developments promoted through an estimated CF 35 billion in transfers from the Comorian emigrant community. - At December 31, 2004, the Meck network registered 25,351 members, as against 19,105 in December 2003; outstanding savings of more than CF 5 billion, up 13 percent; and outstanding loans of CF 2.5 billion, as against CF 1.7 billion in December 2003. - Sanduk network in 2004: 22,070 members, as compared with 20,355 in December 2003; deposits increased from FC 2 billion to CF 2.4 billion; outstanding credit increased from CF 1.2 billion to CF 1.4 billion. ### Financial and microfinance weaknesses and constraints - Major weaknesses and constraints in the financial and microfinance sector: - A lack of real competition in the credit market. - An absence of diversification in microfinance products and agencies. - Substantial dependence on credit from donors and lenders. - Insufficient follow-up of credit cases in certain institutions. - Difficulty in effectively channeling savings from Comorian expatriates. - Low level of remuneration on savings. - The judiciary system is not efficient or organized enough to provide valid support for the financial sector. - Confusion of supervision and financing roles. - The supply of financial services is not adapted to the specific features of certain activities. - DFI management lacks sufficient professional standing. - Insufficient financial instruments for effective risk management. - Interest rates are often deemed excessive compared with returns on investments. - Microfinance institutions reach an insufficient proportion of the population in rural areas. ### Financial and microfinance outlook and initiatives - Initiatives in progress: - Proposals for Banque de l’Habitat, an investment bank, and a bank for emigrants. - DFIs have become more aware of their preponderant role in local economic development and efforts to fight instability; support to enhance professional standing of DFIs is essential. - Risk factors: - Changes in the composition of the Comorian expatriate community could lead to a drastic reduction in transfers in the medium term. ### Core strategies and priority programs: economic growth and sector priorities - Poverty reduction strategy rests on three principles: (i) robust economic growth; (ii) human and institutional capacity building; and (iii) strengthened governance and public management, including clarification of roles between the Union and the islands and civil service reorganization. - Sectoral approach to poverty reduction: - Two options: promote growth in sectors with comparative advantage and redistribute benefits; or adopt a “pro-poor policy” to boost incomes where the poor are concentrated. - Government intends a combined approach: target sectors where the poor are concentrated for quick income gains, and stimulate medium-term development of new growth sectors whose benefits can be redistributed through taxation and equitable, incentive-based public expenditure. - Short-term focus: micro and small-scale enterprise sector and the agro-food sector (agriculture, fishing, stockbreeding). - Agriculture: - Comorian agriculture lost domestic market share; increasing fruit, vegetable, and food imports. - International rice prices doubled in one year, and increased sea transportation costs make local products more competitive if trade circuits reduce production and transaction costs. - Medium- and long-term agricultural objectives: stabilize or improve vanilla, cloves, ylang ylang production; develop new crops and export niches (e.g., lychees, algae growing, lobster and shrimp farming, cultured pearl production). - Tourism: - Tourism development is the country’s medium-term economic engine and centerpiece of the government strategy. - Financing agreements signed for over US$250 million with international tourism groups to develop high-end seaside beach complexes; work has begun on the old Galawa hotel site. - Tourism is job-intensive, creates knock-on effects across sectors, and can rapidly generate skilled jobs requiring short training periods. - Challenge: optimize revenue and benefits by developing multiple services related to tourism (supply of fishing, stockbreeding, agricultural products); risk that imports could replace local supply and reduce knock-on effects. - Strategy: implement tourism development and public private partnership (PPP) poles; define win-win conditions for Comorian participation and skill transfer alongside international investors. - Technology and labor intensity: - Prioritize labor-intensive, unskilled-labor technologies (e.g., road construction and maintenance, construction, agrofood) for greater poverty reduction impact. - Conduct serious feasibility and market studies to identify technical feasibility, market potential, comparative advantages, strategic niche positioning, and labor-intensive technologies to ensure product quality and competitiveness. ### Human capital and demographic considerations - Human capital priority: - The PRGS emphasizes vocational training in addition to formal education; allocate resources to occupational training and functional literacy for youth and adults. - Promote short-term training activities: agrofood technology institutes and hotel and tourism schools to supply specialized labor for targeted growth niches. - Demographic constraint: - Strong demographic growth rate was approximately 2.1 percent according to the 2003 RGPH; no reason to believe it has declined. - Government intends to reduce demographic growth through strengthened family planning programs. *Source: _cr10190 - 0.1 percent and tourism 0.4 percent of the total number of private enterprises.* ### introduction of relevant training modules into training curricula, in the public and private sectors, ### _cr10190 - introduction of relevant training modules into training curricula, in the public and private sectors, ### Priority human-capital and education measures - Introduction of relevant training modules into training curricula, in the public and private sectors, is a priority. - Broad education is required to reduce the demographic growth rate, with a focus on education for girls and adult literacy. - Activities in education for girls and adult literacy will receive special attention. - Core strategy 5 (2010-2014 PRGS): Promote education and vocational training with the aim of developing human capital. - Program 5.1. Develop education, technical instruction, and occupational training, to reflect the requirements of the job market - Program 5.2. Improve access to and quality of basic (preschool and elementary) and secondary education - Program 5.3. Develop competent human resources and the sectoral (SWAP) approach in education - Program 5.4. Promote literacy, sports, and cultural activities - Emphasis on shifting ministry efforts to technical and vocational training, and supporting informal training through literacy activities targeting young people and adults. ### Governance, decentralization, and civic education - Good governance is framed as a necessary condition for poverty reduction in the Comoros. - Government intentions: - Continue national reconciliation, democratization, and decentralization to enable greater island autonomy and civil society involvement. - Clarify responsibilities between the Union and island governments and establish appropriate instruments for rights exercise. - Anchor power sharing in democratic practices to reduce secessionist risk. - Civic education measures: - Schools will begin at the primary level to provide civic training in the principles of democracy. - Public communications and media development should receive more attention to inform citizens and strengthen democracy. - Governance objectives include: - Sound management of fiscal resources. - Ensuring markets operate efficiently and removing distortions and sources of illegal enrichment. ### PRGS (2010-2014) core strategies and priority programs - The 2010-2014 PRGS adopted six core strategies and 32 priority programs to be implemented during the next five years. - Core strategy 1: Stabilize the economy and lay the groundwork for strong and equitable growth - Program 1.1. Enhance government and fiscal operations - Program 1.2. Integrate and facilitate domestic and international trade - Program 1.3. Improve the energy supply at a low cost - Program 1.4. Improve basic economic infrastructure and communication services - Program 1.5. Increase access to drinking water, sanitation, and sustainable resource management - Core strategy 2: Strengthen key sectors by focusing on institution building and ensuring a broader role for the private sector - I. Strengthening the private sector - Program 2.1. Support private sector organization - Program 2.2. Financial intermediation and microcredit - II. Restore growth through key sectors - Agriculture and stockbreeding subsector - Program 2.3. Enhance security of property resources - Program 2.4. Support the creation of a favorable environment for agriculture sector development - Program 2.5. Restore agricultural and agrofood production - Program 2.6. Protect livestock against exotic infectious diseases and intensify the animal production sector - Fishing subsector - Program 2.7. Create an environment favorable to the balanced development of the sector - Program 2.8. Develop a conservation, processing, and marketing system for fish products - Tourism subsector - Program 2.9. Support tourism development - Core strategy 3: Strengthen governance and social cohesion - Program 3.1. Promote good governance, social cohesion, solidarity, and consolidation of peace - Program 3.2. Improve the legal framework, promote anticorruption measures, and strengthen transparency in fiscal management - Program 3.3. Strengthen the capacities of the judiciary institution - Program 3.4. Fight terrorism and transnational crime, and strengthen civil security - Core strategy 4: Improve the health status of the general public - Program 4.1. Fight malaria and priority diseases - Program 4.2. Integrated sexual and reproductive health development - Program 4.3. Fight HIV/AIDS and sexually transmissible infections - Program 4.4. Strengthen the efficacy of all aspects of the health system - Core strategy 5: Promote education and vocational training with the aim of developing human capital (see subsection above for programs) - Core strategy 6: Promote environmental sustainability and civilian security - Program 6.1. Conserve biodiversity and equitably share its advantages - Program 6.2. Conserve and upgrade agro-biodiversity - Program 6.3. Adapt to climate change - Program 6.4. Fiscal rehabilitation with an ecological focus - Program 6.5. Capacity building for multisector environmental management and coordination - Program 6.6. Establish prevention and management mechanisms for risks related to natural and climate disasters ### Core strategy implementation priorities and sectoral focus - Core strategy 1 priorities: - Major fiscal reforms and administrative reorganization. - Incentive commercial policies to integrate the Comoros into regional and world economies. - Reforms and investments to guarantee a regular energy supply at reasonable costs. - Building and improving basic economic infrastructure (roads, ports, airports, telecommunications). - Access to drinking water and sanitation services. - Core strategy 2 priorities: - Institutional support and regulatory framework for growth sectors. - Intensification, productivity improvement, competitiveness strengthening, and capacity building for commercial activities and marketing circuits. - Strengthen financial intermediation and access to microcredit; support nonfinancial services to promote private sector development and improve the business climate. - Core strategy 3 priorities: - Construct democratic and administrative institutions of the Union and the islands. - Clarify responsibilities, roles, and scope of authority of national institutions. - Implement decentralization at rural community and municipality levels; improve access to transparent, equitable justice; fight transnational crime; strengthen civilian security. - Core strategy 4 priorities: - Improve access to quality health services for vulnerable groups and rural populations. - Focus on reducing malaria and priority diseases, improving mother and child health, preventing HIV/AIDS, and improving health system management and hospital environment. - Core strategy 6 priorities: - Protect the environment and ensure regeneration, conservation, and rational sustainable exploitation. - Establish risk and disaster prevention and management mechanisms in connection with global warming. - Address vulnerability to cyclones, droughts, epidemics, tornadoes, brush fires, tidal waves, floods, major accidents, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes. ### Cross-cutting issues and institutional capacity - Improved production and access to statistical information are essential for preparation and monitoring of development programs. - A national statistical development strategy (SNDS) was validated in 2007 and its implementation is a priority. - Priority areas include the computerized public expenditure system and a more powerful information system linking the central and island levels. - Absence of disaggregated data by island poses a problem; the information system is imprecise or nonexistent between central and island levels. - Institutional capacity building at Union and island levels is required for results-based public management and more effective, efficient fiscal management. - Development of and access to new production and communication technologies is a major challenge to increase productivity, competitiveness, and attractiveness. - Technology access is particularly important in the agrofood sector and tourism sector, and for potential in the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector. - The National Investment Promotion Agency (ANPI) is being established to study BPO conditions and inform national operators. - Gender and human rights integration: - Priority to incorporate gender and human rights issues into the implementation of all programs. - Women and girls prioritized for access to social services (education, health, and family planning), economic services (financial services and microenterprise development), and justice. - Strengthening women’s roles in public sector senior levels and decentralized decision-making centers will be encouraged. - Human-rights related recommendations validated in 2007 include identifying vulnerable groups; capacity building in civil society; expanding participative approaches; adopting legislation respectful of vulnerable persons; capacity building for lawful claimants and obligated parties; adoption of legislative texts to establish an obligatory accountability mechanism. ### Trade integration and MDG financing - Integration of trade into the PRGS is presented as necessary for growth, wealth creation, and socioeconomic development. - A 2007 diagnostic study under the Integrated Framework highlighted: - Organizational weaknesses in the private sector and deficiencies in the business and investment climate. - Need to strengthen competitiveness, including tax reforms, infrastructure improvements, and energy production to reduce excessive factor costs. - Strengthening rule of law and legal system; strengthening trade and investment institutions; improved operation of domestic markets (implementing decrees for public contracting code, legislation on competition, contracting surveillance agency). - Reforms required for participation in COMESA agreements, alignment for the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) and entry into the WTO. - Targeted actions to remove bottlenecks in productive sectors and reduce inter-island transportation costs. - A matrix of priority actions was prepared and validated; the trade diagnostics and priority action matrix were endorsed by the Council of Ministers in January 2008 and a project implementation unit has recently been established. - Millennium Development Goals (MDG) financing: - Operations to reach the MDG must receive priority as unifying stakes to improve the socioeconomic situation. - In 2006, the government requested support to study the country’s status in respect of the MDGs. - The cost of reaching the MDGs by 2015 was estimated in June 2008. - The total cost is approximately US$29 billion during an eight-year period, more than half of which is earmarked for improved access to energy, infrastructure construction, and transportation. *Source: _cr10190 - introduction of relevant training modules into training curricula, in the public and private sectors,* ### 4.3 P ### _cr10190 - 4.3 P ### Overview: PRGS priority programs and organization - The PRGS adopted a total of 32 priority programs. - Programs are organized according to the six core strategies of the PRGS. - Implementation will largely follow a sectoral approach with coordination and oversight by relevant ministerial departments; some programs require an inter-sectoral approach. - A detailed action plan will cover the period 2010-2014. ### Core Strategy 1. Stabilize the economy and lay the groundwork for strong and equitable growth - Fourteen program statements (Program 1.1 through Program 1.5 listed under this core strategy) focus on macroeconomic management, structural reforms, competitiveness, and investment in infrastructure and communications. Key programs and their objectives: - Program 1.1 Enhance government and fiscal operations - Context: government faced a threefold challenge: (1) an unprecedented economic crisis at world and national levels; (2) alarming fiscal and public sector deterioration; and (3) persistent political and institutional crisis. - The 2008 PEFA report identified weaknesses and dysfunctions in fiscal management; fiscal deterioration accelerated in recent years. - IMF approved EPCA in October 2008; subject to effective management, the country could become eligible in 2009 for the Heavily-Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative and ultimately for the MDRI. - Planned reforms and instruments: results-based public management, medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF), program budgets, strengthened planning/monitoring/evaluation, improved information flows between the Union and the islands, improved statistics. - Fiscal and institutional measures: contain public deficits, reduce the size of government, reallocate public resources to priority sectors, reorganize civil service, continue privatization of state enterprises, harmonize customs and fiscal practices with COMESA obligations. - Program 1.2 Integrate and facilitate domestic and international trade - Commercial policy anchored in multilateral trade framework and COMESA regional integration. - Objectives: reduce rent-seeking, reduce factor costs, facilitate trade, improve business and investment climate. - Accompanying measures: training, strengthened professional organizations, access to information and financing, stimulate domestic trade, promote inter-island trade flows. - Program 1.3 Improve the energy supply at a low cost - Diagnostics: need for rational biomass management, greater autonomy for imported petroleum products, more effective production and distribution, diversification to solar, hydraulic, aeolian, geothermal. - Constraints: narrow market, high electricity production costs driven by high petroleum prices, absence of sectoral strategy, unclear institutional framework, insufficient human resources. - Objectives: (i) clarify/strengthen institutional and organizational framework and national energy strategy; (ii) strengthen energy storage, production, and distribution infrastructure; (iii) reduce technical and non-technical losses via a national energy management and efficiency program. - Additional aims: substitute firewood with improved cooking technologies and modern fuels; diversify energy sources; promote clean energy; social impacts especially for women. - Program 1.4 Improve basic economic infrastructure and communication services - Problem statement: high factor costs due to insularity, small market size, division into islands, aged/inadequate infrastructure built ~20 years ago. - Sectors and planned measures: - Roads: 2007 study to establish a sectoral road transportation policy to 2030; Road Maintenance Fund (FER) created in 2007 Budget Law to receive 15 percent of TUPP proceeds; ensure FER transfers used for road maintenance. - Ports: dredge Mutsamudu, build floating pier at Moroni as interim, identify site and conduct feasibility for deepwater port, expand container storage in Moroni, improve Port of Mwali management, consider transport price subsidy, construct small fishing ports with minimal cold chain/storage, improve port management/security and strengthen Comoros Port Authority. - Airports: complete airport fencing in Moroni, equip with freight scanner, resurface runways and install markers at Mwali and Nzwani, improve terminals and fire protection, rationalize coordination of airport services, build gangways to integrate road/port/airport transfers. - Telecommunications: rapid mobile expansion (mobile units surpass fixed in <5 years), introduction of Internet and high-speed ADSL; liberalization to a second mobile operator expected to introduce competition and reduce prices. - Program 1.5 Increase access to drinking water, sanitation, and sustainable resource management - Current situation: less than 15 percent of the population reportedly has access to drinking water according to accepted standards; virtually no sanitation system; wastewater and solid waste discharged into the sea. - Institutional gap: no national water strategy or master plan; activities conducted without institutional or regulatory framework. - Health and environmental impacts: high prevalence of waterborne diseases (diarrhea, typhoid); poor waste management leading to public health problems; lack of well protection and water quality monitoring. ### Core Strategy II. Strengthen key sectors by focusing on institution building and ensuring a broader role for the private sector - Nine priority programs grouped into: - I. Strengthening the private sector (Program 2.1, Program 2.2) - II. Restoring growth through key sectors (Programs 2.3–2.9) across agriculture/stockbreeding, fishing, and tourism I. Strengthening the private sector - Program 2.1 Support private sector organization - Problems: Chambers of Commerce, Industry, and Agriculture recently faced crisis; professional organizations do little for members; substantial informal sector; undeveloped consulting sector. - Actions: strengthen capacities of Chambers and professional associations; improve investment climate; reduce rent-seeking/taxes; strengthen judiciary with magistrates specialized in financial/commercial matters; establish Supreme Court; implement OHADA chart of accounts; develop arbitration assistance; adopt implementing decrees for new investment code; “Invest in Comores” to simplify enterprise creation and foster foreign investment. - Program 2.2 Financial intermediation and microcredit - Financial landscape: until last year only one private bank (BIC) plus two decentralized financial institutions (Meck and Sanduck); in 2008 two new banks (Eximbank of Tanzania and a Kuwaiti bank) were licensed; Banque de Développement des Comores recapitalized and opened a microfinance window. - Issues: excess liquidity but costly credit; need for new instruments (venture capital, etc.) and competition; women constitute more than 50 percent of DFI clients. - Planned actions: organize governance for DFIs, build internal audit/supervision capacity, obtain central bank license for Union régionale des Sanduck de Mohéli et de Ngazidja, consult on new financial instruments, adopt strengthened prudential measures, implement compulsory savings insurance for DFIs, develop targeted activities for poor women. II. Restoring growth through key sectors Agriculture and stockbreeding subsector - Program 2.3 Enhance security of property resources - Problems: physical access to land and unclear legal ownership; small fragmented farms; high costs of registration. - Actions: ongoing AFD-funded property registry (initiated in 2007); reduce registration costs drastically; clarify law on land ownership and sharecropping; organize real property market. - Program 2.4 Support the creation of a favorable environment for agriculture sector development - Approach: reinforce participative community development, strengthen farmers’ organizations, enhance coordination among stakeholders, focus on technical, administrative, financial management capacity building. - Program 2.5 Restore agricultural and agrofood production - Context: 70 percent of population rural; domestic production insufficient for market demand; imports include rice, wheat flour, oil, sugar, milk, powdered milk; local production constrained by small subsistence farms, low investments, poor marketing circuits, low productivity, and exchange rate disadvantages. - Objectives: intensify and improve agricultural productivity through better access to inputs/technologies, sector organization/structuring, investments to facilitate marketing and exporting. - Program 2.6 Protect livestock against exotic infectious diseases and intensify animal production sectors - Issues: limited pasture land; recent epidemics from diseased imported animals decimated herds. - Actions: strengthen health inspections on imported animals; establish advisory services to support small-scale producers, especially women. Fishing sector - Program 2.7 Create an environment favorable to balanced sector development - Priorities: establish knowledge base on exploitable resources, strengthen professional and fishermen’s organizations, promote responsible resource management. - Program 2.8 Develop conservation, processing, and marketing system for fish products - Evolution: traditional to artisanal fishing using fiberglass boats; artisanal fishing meets domestic demand. - Needs: modernize artisanal fishing (new techniques, larger boats, preservation techniques, cold chain, marketing organization); expand small fishing ports, storage facilities, cold chambers, and roads to reduce losses and access export markets. Tourism sector - Baseline data: - Incoming tourists in 2007: Mauritius 906,000; Seychelles 161,000; Comoros just over 20,000. - Accommodation (2005): 238 rooms or 472 beds; geographic distribution: 83 percent of rooms in Ngazidja, 9 percent in Mwali, 8 percent in Ndzouani; one third at three-star level; no seaside tourism capacity. - Projected regional growth: World Tourism Organization projected a growth rate of 6.3 percent per year for 1995-2020 in the Indian Ocean Region. - Constraints: lack of hotels, high air transport costs, high credit costs. - Major investments: 2007 financing agreements for northern Ngazidja—projects with Dubai World and Comores Gulf Corporation. - Program 2.9 Support tourism development - Strategy: attract international investors for large-scale projects (focus on Mwali and Nzwani to balance development); create tourism development centers including land improvement, infrastructure upgrades (airports, ports, roads, electricity), liberalize skies, supply contracts between hotels and rural communities, support microenterprises and PPPs, promote business hotels and micro-hospitality in rural areas. - Marketing and training: promote Comorian tourism via Internet, CD-ROM, brochures; participate in tourism fairs; develop hiking paths, rehabilitate historical sites, support artisanal production; create plant and animal preserves on the three islands and reinforce Mwali sea park anti-poaching; strengthen professional training (hotel/restaurant trades), language training (Arabic and English); reinforce Tourism Directorate and establish a Tourism Office in the medium term; expect intermediate coverage of functions until 2010/2011 with opening of two major complexes. ### Core Strategy III. Strengthen governance and social cohesion - Rationale: prolonged political instability undermines governance, institutions, rule of law, national cohesion, and increases poverty. - Approach: consolidate national reconciliation, social dialog, democratization, and decentralization to give islands and civil society greater responsibility. - Implementation: involve island political/technical authorities and communities; collect disaggregated statistical information; substantial training and supervision at municipal and grassroots levels. - Four priority programs: - Program 3.1 Promote good governance, social cohesion, solidarity, and consolidation of peace - Actions: implement decentralization at municipal level; civil service reform (workforce containment, clarify island relations, reorganize ministries, training, procurement, large-scale computerization); strengthen civil society organizations. - Program 3.2 Improve the legal framework, promote anticorruption measures, and strengthen transparency - Diagnosis: corruption perceived as widespread; audits confirm corruption in domestic debt and public enterprises; corruption undermines competitiveness and raises costs for poor consumers. - Actions: enhance transparency and accountability in public management; implement anti-corruption measures. - Program 3.3 Strengthen the capacity of judicial institutions - Problems: limited access to justice, high costs of proceedings, legal assistance shortages, overlapping legal sources (Islamic, statutory, traditional). - Actions: finalize judiciary architecture (establish Supreme Court), implement pending laws, train/specialize judges, capacity building for lawyers/clerks/judiciary police, promote OHADA commercial law, ratify international conventions, develop arbitration/conciliation to relieve court backlog, improve prison conditions. - Program 3.4 Fight terrorism and transnational crime, and strengthen civil security - Context: global linkages between terrorism, organized crime, trafficking, money laundering (UNSCR 1373); Comoros vulnerable given exclusive maritime area of 240,000 square kilometers and limited technological capacities. - Actions: equip airports with merchandise scanners; provide customs and police with two speedboats and communication equipment for territorial waters security. ### Core Strategy IV. Improve the health status of the general public - Health as a driver of productivity and poverty reduction; constraints: insufficient access to quality care, inadequate health/hygiene/sanitation infrastructure, resurgence of malnutrition. - National policy: National Health Development Plan (PNDS) updated; policy adopted on April 8, 2005; WHO support for PNDS update. - Four priority programs: - Program 4.1 Fight malaria and priority diseases - Malaria: major public health problem; children under five and pregnant women most vulnerable; higher prevalence in rural areas; other priority diseases include tuberculosis, leprosy, neonatal tetanus, filariasis, and poliomyelitis. - Malaria strategy: joined “Roll Back Malaria”; first strategic plan 2001-2006; revised plan 2007-2012 aligned with Abuja Declaration and MDGs. - Target: reduce malaria prevalence, mortality, and morbidity by at least 50 percent. *Source: _cr10190 - 4.3 P* ### 2012. The main activities are prevention through large-scale use of long-lasting insecticide ### _cr10190 - 2012. The main activities are prevention through large-scale use of long-lasting insecticide ### Malaria and vector-borne disease control - Main activities described: - Prevention through large-scale use of long-lasting insecticide impregnated bed nets. - Targeted use of intradomicile insecticide sprays (PID). - Intermittent preventive treatment (TPI) for pregnant women. - Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for malaria. - Promotion of antilarval measures with larvivorous fish. - Public health system vulnerabilities increasing outbreak risk: - Degradation in hygiene and sanitation conditions. - Deficiencies in national epidemiological surveillance: absence of a national health laboratory and absence of health inspection and control services. - Exposure to vector-borne diseases such as arbovirus infection and yellow fever. ### Control and elimination programs for other communicable diseases - Diseases targeted: tuberculosis, leprosy, neonatal tetanus, filariasis, poliomyelitis. - Strengthened and supported actions: - (i) Early detection and treatment of leprosy and tuberculosis. - (ii) Mass preventive treatment campaign for lymphatic filariasis. - (iii) Expanded program on immunization for prevention of poliomyelitis, tetanus, and other vaccine-preventable diseases. - (iv) Epidemic surveillance and alert services. - Specific plan element: authorities plan to adopt measures to address acute malnutrition. ### Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) - NCDs of concern: sugar diabetes, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, cancer, blindness, mental psychoses. - Key issues: - Increasingly frequent sources of deaths in the country. - Relevant data are to all intents and purposes nonexistent. - Urgent need for research to assess prevalence and develop appropriate programs. - Planned response: steps will be taken to treat noncommunicable diseases. ### Integrated sexual and reproductive health (Program 4.2) - Current outcomes and constraints: - Fertility: 5.1 children per woman. - Maternal mortality: 381 per 100,000 live births. - Child mortality: 74 per 1,000. - Peripheral units understaffed with qualified personnel (almost exclusively staffed by nurses and medical assistants), run down buildings, shortage of adequate equipment. - Additional travel and costs for patients due to lack of local quality services; cost is a major obstacle for low-income women with repeated pregnancies. - Low demand for SRH and family planning services among rural and disadvantaged households. - Planned measures: - Focus on improving reproductive health services in peripheral health units. - Reinforce staff training, equipment, and supplies of consumables. - Equip services with transportation means for obstetric emergencies. - Rehabilitate 49 health units and 15 district health centers. - Subcontract social communication activities with rural radio services and NGOs to sensitize populations, particularly young people. ### HIV/AIDS and sexually transmissible infections (Program 4.3) - Epidemiological context and risks: - HIV positive prevalence estimated at 0.09 in 1999 and 0.025 in 2003. - Confirmed predominance in women and adults 15- 49 years of age (0.13 percent). - Contributing risk factors: poverty, infrequent condom use, increasing prostitution (particularly clandestine), rapidly increasing exchange with heavily affected countries, massive returns of very young Comorian expatriates, substantial prevalence of STIs, insufficient public knowledge of HIV transmission and prevention, discrimination against persons living with HIV/AIDS. - Planned measures: - Construction of two new diagnostic centers. - Construction and equipment of a national blood transfusion center. - Public awareness targeting young people and high-risk groups; distribution of condoms. - Clinics to be supplied with anti-retroviral drugs and staff training. - Public communication activities in schools; organization of young people into mutual support groups. - Conduct a national survey to assess developments in spread of the pandemic. ### Strengthening the efficacy of the health system (Program 4.4) - National Health Policy (February 2005) seven implementation points reiterated; little progress since 2005. - Key commitments and measures: - State’s political commitment to increase the share of health in the national budget to 15 percent. - Use of “simulated participation” technique to negotiate community contributions to health service management and financing. - Promote equality and equity in health facilities to improve management, responsibility, and quality of care. - Training for health professionals, review of the human resource development plan, and establishment of a computerized system. - Creation and management of an environment to promote good health: access to drinking water and sanitation, healthy and safe environment, appropriate diets, and healthy lifestyles. - Contractual approach for health care workers while maintaining state involvement in health finance. - Diversification of health finance mechanisms: - (i) Reinforcement of the mutual system. - (ii) Creation of a health insurance system initially covering state-owned companies, large private companies, and civil servants (noting some companies such as SNPT, MAMWE already provide some staff health care coverage). - (iii) Gradual implementation of insurance in communities relying on Meck networks in urban centers and Sanduk networks in villages. ### Education and vocational training (Core Strategy V and Programs 5.1–5.4) - Rationale: education as strategic for human capital, social values, skills, and reducing poverty. - Fiscal and institutional context: - Share of education in total state expenditure increased from 19.6 percent in 2004 to 39 percent in 2007 (Indian Ocean Child Rights Observatory (ODEROI) 2008 report). - Total public education expenditure represented 3.1 percent of GDP in 2004. - Internationally-recommended target: 6 percent of GDP. - Wage payment delays of several months undermining teacher morale. - Identified shortcomings and priorities: - Excess demand for technical and occupational education graduates. - Technical and occupational education receive very little investment despite importance for employment and economic development. - Need to improve teacher training, monitoring, and eliminate double-shift schemes gradually. - Four priority education programs: - Program 5.1: Develop education, technical instruction, and occupational training to reflect job market requirements. - Promote technical education in lower secondary school. - Develop voluntary occupational training for young drop-outs, never-attended, and uneducated adults. - Reorganize subsector, rehabilitate existing schools, build and equip new facilities, diversify training, and train instructors. - University role: strengthen national identity, social cohesion, and provide diverse training for mid-level and senior managers. - Program 5.2: Improve access to and quality of basic (preschool and elementary) and secondary education. - Preschool formal education currently does not exist; early childhood coverage partly by Koranic schools and western nurseries in urban areas. - Plans to rehabilitate, build, and equip classrooms; update programs and methods; strengthen scientific disciplines and teaching languages (particularly French); train inspectors and teachers; improve access to textbooks and didactic materials; build public-private partnerships. - Program 5.3: Develop competent human resources and the sectoral (SWAP) approach in education. - Strengthen planning, management, monitoring and evaluation capacity; ensure teacher training at all levels; address irregular wage payments and strikes. - Institutional strengthening to be included in budget reform and improved fiscal management. - Program 5.4: Promote literacy, sports, and cultural activities. - Total illiteracy rate estimated at 40.9 percent (MICS 2000), especially among economically productive populations and women. - Need for education policy for youth not enrolled in school and for adult literacy initiatives. ### Environmental sustainability and disaster risk management (Core Strategy VI and Programs 6.1–6.6) - Overall constraints: ecological and economic instability, substantial vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters, insufficient response and management capacity, narrow high-cost energy resource base. - Institutional and legal gaps: - Organic framework does not define sharing between the Union and the Islands for environmental management. - Many implementing texts for the Framework Law on environment yet to be drafted. - National legal framework not revised to allow implementation of ratified conventions. - No institution responsible for drafting, revision, and harmonization of legal texts across sectors. - Mismatch between human resources provided and institutional requirements; financial resources for directorates essentially nonexistent. - Six priority environmental programs: - Program 6.1: Conserve biodiversity and equitably share its strengths. - Promote protected areas co-managed with village communities to conserve biodiversity and attract eco-tourism. - Program 6.2: Conserve and upgrade agro-biodiversity. - Preserve traditional agro-forestry systems; protect endemic varieties; limit deforestation and expansion of cultivated lands into natural forests. - Program 6.3: Adapt to climate change. - Identified effects: accelerated losses of coastal strips of land, reduced agricultural and fish production, contamination of coastal water tables with seawater, displacement of more than 10 percent of the coastal population. - Policy directions: diversify energy sources (wind, solar, hydroelectricity), community reforestation parcels for firewood, pilot projects for alternative energy. - Climate change impacts on health, food security, economic activity, water resources, and physical infrastructure; risk of reversing food security and poverty reduction efforts. - Program 6.4: Fiscal consolidation with an ecological focus. - Current fiscal system does not reflect pollution-fighting or natural resource conservation concerns. - Public contracting code lacks mandatory environmental clauses; impact study decree not applied due to implementation gaps. - Lack of joint guarantee mechanisms and partnership structures for ecologically and socially responsible loans. - AMIE project testing joint guarantee systems through women’s associations and Meck Moroni for agricultural loans in partnership with SNAC. - IUCN/UNDP study recommends establishing a trust fund for biodiversity conservation and exploring alternative financing including debt-for-nature swaps. - Program 6.5: Capacity building for multisector environmental management and coordination. - Priority: systemic, institutional strengthening at island and national levels; introduce regional sustainable development planning; train specialists and inform the public; develop legislative, regulatory, and management tools. - Program 6.6: Establish prevention and management mechanisms for risks related to natural and climate disasters. - Major natural risks: tropical cyclones, floods, tidal waves, eruption of the Karthala Volcano (Ngazidja), landslides and fallen earth from abundant precipitation. - Emphasis on disaster risk preparation, response, and management schemes. *Source: _cr10190 - 2012. The main activities are prevention through large-scale use of long-lasting insecticide* ### CHAPTER V ### CHAPTER V ### 5.0. INTRODUCTION - Government economic policies directly and indirectly affect resource allocation, value added creation, income distribution from production/processing/marketing/consumption, macroeconomic equilibria, price levels, and economic growth rates. - A stable macroeconomic environment is necessary for enterprise performance, purchasing power, and government capacity to provide basic education and primary health care. - Macroeconomic objectives linked to the PRGS: - observance of major economic equilibria: level of state expenditure and public deficit, balance of payments, general price level; - establishment of an environment conducive to robust, sustainable growth through promotion of the private sector and growth sectors (tourism, agriculture, fishing, stockbreeding). - Policy instruments: budget and fiscal policies, trade policy, monetary policy, legal and institutional reform. - Chapter structure: - recent developments and short-term outlook; - macroeconomic and financial framework under three scenarios: (1) “PRGS” scenario (benchmark used for PRGS implementation), (2) “MDG” scenario (accelerated growth with major donor investment to achieve MDGs by 2015), (3) “IMF” scenario (IMF projections). PRGS implementation strategy is based on the “PRGS” scenario. ### 5.1. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE COMOROS - Growth and output: - Real GDP growth: 0.8 percent in 2007; approximately 0.2 percent projected in 2008 (lowest in 10 years). - Slowdown attributed to restricted banking sector credit to public enterprises, commodity shortages (rice, petroleum products), and an energy crisis since the latter half of 2008. - Fiscal balances and revenues: - Tax revenue increased by 9.7 percent compared with 2007. - Current expenditure up 22 percent. - Basic budget deficit: approximately 3.5 percent of GDP in 2008 vs. approximately 2.9 percent in 2007. - Basic budget deficit in nominal value: CF 4.7 billion in 2007 to CF 6.1 billion in 2008. - Overall deficit (not including grants) widened to more than 13 percent of GDP in 2008 vs. 10 percent in 2007; overall deficit improved slightly at -2.5 percent of GDP in 2008 vs. -3.2 percent in 2007. - Revenue levels (provisional DGB figures, December 2008 vs December 2007): - Tax revenue: CF 18.3 billion (Dec 2008) vs CF 16.7 billion (Dec 2007). - Non-tax revenue increased by 13.6 percent to CF 5.1 billion from CF 4.5 billion in 2007. - Tabled government budget revenue (millions of CF; provisional where indicated): - Tax revenue: 2006: 17,260; 2007*: 16,678; 2008*: 18,288 - Tax on revenue and profits: 2006: 3,804; 2007*: 4,555; 2008*: 4,159 - Countervailing charge (TC) and similar taxes: 2006: 980; 2007*: 2,592; 2008*: 2,631 - International trade: 2006: 8,533; 2007*: 5,984; 2008*: 9,169 - Non-tax revenue: 2006: 4,296; 2007*: 4,482; 2008*: 5,091 - Total revenue: 2006: 21,556; 2007*: 21,160; 2008*: 23,379 - Expenditure: - Total expenditure and net lending increased by 22 percent to represent 26 percent of GDP in 2008. - Increases linked to current expenditure and capital expenditure on road rehabilitation (capital increase of 55 percent in the capital). - Tabled current government budget expenditure (millions of CF; *Provisional): - Wages and salaries: 2006: 13,205; 2007: 15,392; 2008*: 15,690 - Goods and services: 2006: 5,568; 2007: 5,122; 2008*: 8,122 - Transfers: 2006: 3,392; 2007: 3,382; 2008*: 2,678 - Debt interest: 2006: 1,144; 2007: 778; 2008*: 1,217 - Other current expenditure: 2006: 2,457; 2007: 2,624; 2008*: 2,092 - Total expenditure: 2006: 25,766; 2007: 27,298; 2008*: 29,799 - Public debt and external assistance: - Settlement of AfDB arrears after December 2007 Paris Donors’ Conference improved debt situation. - Post-conflict IMF program signed December 2008 led to CF 1.8 billion (US$5.5 million) in disbursements. - Outstanding debt at end-2008: 68.5 percent of GDP vs. 65.7 percent in 2007. - Development partners accepted postponing maturities of main government debt service obligations. - 2009 state budget projections (main items, in millions of CF): - Tax revenue: 18,145 - Non-tax revenue: 6,239 - External revenue: 11,426 - Total revenue: 29,571 - Current expenditure: 30,069 - Staff remuneration: 17,125 - Goods and services: 6,308 - Transfers: 3,512 - Debt interest: 758 - Current expenditure, external financing: 2,366 - Capital expenditure: 11,007 - Own financing: 1,006 - External financing: 9,465 - Financed with counterpart funds: 536 - Total expenditure: 41,076 - Primary balance: 3,566 - Sectoral and external environment: - Energy crisis and restricted bank credit in 2009 continued to interrupt activity through blackouts. - Key productive sectors (transportation, trade) declined in 2008; agriculture for local market and building/public works performed relatively better. - Real GDP growth was below 1 percent due to substantial inflation (approximately 7 percent) driven by higher fuel and transportation costs. - External sector: - Key exports (vanilla and cloves) declined substantially due to lower world prices, strong Comorian franc, and low productivity. - Exports: CF 2.2 billion in 2008 vs nearly CF 5 billion in 2007 — a decline of more than 55 percent. - Tabled export trends (quantities in tons; values in millions of CF; *Provisional BCC estimates): - Vanilla quantities: 2006: 60; 2007: 743; 2008*: 521 — values: 2006: 1,009; 2007: 1,274; 2008*: 643; Var (val) 08/07 in %: -50 - Cloves quantities: 2006: 1,670; 2007: 2,722; 2008*: 915 — values: 2006: 2,054; 2007: 2,866; 2008*: 679; Var (val) 08/07 in %: -76 - Ylang ylang quantities: 2006: 40; 2007: 314; 2008*: 79 — values: 2006: 137; 2007: 117; 2008*: 96; Var (val) 08/07 in %: +12 - Other essences value Var (val) 08/07 in %: -64 - Other products value Var (val) 08/07 in %: +23 - Total quantities: 2006: 2,457; 2007: 3,514; 2008*: 1,939 — Total values: 2006: 4,089; 2007: 4,964; 2008*: 2,212; Var (val) 08/07 in %: -55 - Imports: - Value of imports increased by 27 percent, driven by higher petroleum and food prices despite shortages (rice imports halved). - Remittances from expatriates (~25 percent of GDP) supported construction and household consumption, increasing imports of cement, construction materials, and automobiles; petroleum bill also increased. - Tabled import trends (quantities in tons; values in millions of CF; *Provisional BCC estimates): - Rice quantities: 2006: 32,137; 2007: 32,281; 2008: 19,404 — values: 2006: 4,037; 2007: 5,871; 2008: 5,114; Change (%) 08/07: +13 - Petroleum products quantities: 2006: 55,132; 2007: 35,837; 2008: 36,460 — values: 2006: 9,888; 2007: 10,649; 2008: 12,505; Change (%) 08/07: +17 - Cement values Change (%) 08/07: +34 - Vehicles values Change (%) 08/07: +219 - Total quantities: 2006: 202,955; 2007: 164,949; 2008: 220,796 — Total values: 2006: 45,189; 2007: 49,716; 2008: 63,213; Change (%) 08/07: +27 - Trade balance and competitiveness: - Trade deficit: CF 62 billion in 2008 vs CF 44.8 billion in 2007 — equivalent to 9.5 percent of GDP in 2008 vs 6.7 percent of GDP in 2007. - Import coverage by exports deteriorated from 10 percent in 2007 to 3.5 percent in 2008. - EDIC data indicate the Comorian Franc appreciated substantially against other Indian Ocean country currencies, reducing comparative advantage in traditional export sectors. ### 5.2. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - Government macroeconomic objectives for 2009: - real GDP growth rate of 0.8 percent; - average inflation rate of less than 5 percent; - recurrent budget deficit limited to 8.5 percent of GDP; - investments equivalent to 12.3 percent of GDP; - a primary budget balance improvement of 1 percent of GDP (reflecting reduced expenditure, primarily wage bill); - slight decline in net bank claims on government to enable sustained increase in bank credit to private sector. - Fiscal management and 2009 budget (aims and figures): - Reduce primary budget deficit (excluding grants) to 1.6 percent of GDP (vs 2.7 percent in 2008) via savings on security, wage bill, and energy crisis measures. - Expected total public revenue: CF 24.4 billion (13 percent of GDP). - Expected total expenditure: CF 40.5 billion (21.5 percent of GDP). - Program and project grants identified: CF 13.8 billion, or 7.3 percent of GDP (IMF report). - Reduction in payment arrears: approximately CF 2.5 billion, equivalent to 1.3 percent of GDP. - Overall budget deficit (cash basis) expected to amount to CF 2.5 billion in 2009 (as compared with 1.3 percent in 2008). - Structural constraints and financing gap: - Economy characterized by two gaps: substantial external deficit (insufficient exports of goods and services) and domestic deficit (poor economic performance reducing enterprise/household/government revenue). - Debt accelerating; debt service at unsustainable levels leading to net negative transfers and ruling out financing for development and poverty reduction. - State net financing requirement for 2009 assessed at approximately CF 8.5 billion, equivalent to 4.5 percent of GDP. - This financing gap reflects CF 4.5 billion in external debt service, including CF 3.3 billion in current debt service and CF 1.2 billion in arrears. - Government must address negative net transfers of CF 3.7 billion, equivalent to 2 percent of GDP. - Substantial, sustained growth is essential to break the vicious cycle impeding development. - Financial intermediation and FDI prospects: - Two new foreign banks began operations in 2008: Eximbank of Tanzania and Banque Fédérale des Comores. - EDIC diagnostic highlights tourism potential; incoming FDI could increase from an average of 0.4 percent of GDP per annum (2000-07) to approximately 2 percent of GDP in the medium term, primarily from Gulf States (Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates). - Investment climate improvements (draft Investment Code approved by Parliament in 2007, single window for investors, National Agency for Investment Promotion (ANPI)) expected to attract FDI and channel remittances into productive investments. - Trade policy: - Ongoing liberalization: conversion of specific customs duties into indirect domestic taxes on key products; ad valorem customs duties adjusted to a maximum level of 20 percent. ### 5.3. MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK - The macroeconomic framework specifies conditions to be achieved, sector growth contributions, and expected technical and financial partner financing for PRGS implementation and MDG costs. - Forecasts are based on investment in sectors and each sector’s contribution to national growth. - Three scenarios used for projections: 1. “PRGS” scenario — benchmark reflecting quantitative incidence of sector strategies under the PRGS, medium-term growth profile, and macroeconomic framework (used for PRGS implementation strategy). 2. “MDG” scenario — costs to reach Millennium Development Goals with massive partner investment and improved aid absorption. 3. “IMF” scenario — IMF simulations from 2008 Article IV Joint Consultations; IMF projections stop at 2013 and were extended to 2014 by replicating 2013 figures for comparability. #### 5.3.1. PRGS SCENARIO - Growth drivers during 2010-2014 under the PRGS scenario: - sustained evolution in agricultural sector activities; - development in the tourism sector; - new impetus and growth in banking and financial intermediation; - resolution of the energy crisis to enhance productivity across sectors; - induced effects from new investments inherent in PRGS implementation. - Short-term projection: - Real GDP growth in 2009 expected to be approximately 1.2 percent, slightly above the government’s 0.8 percent target. - Effective PRGS implementation is expected to put the Comorian economy back on track toward more sustained real growth through 2010-2014 (detailed numeric projections beyond 2009 not provided in the supplied content). *Source: CHAPTER V — ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK 2010 – 2014 (provisional figures and tables as provided in the chapter).* ### 2.5 percent real GDP growth by 2010, and to move towards 5.6 percent by 2014. During the ### _cr10190 - 2.5 percent real GDP growth by 2010, and to move towards 5.6 percent by 2014. During the ### Medium-term growth objectives and aggregate outlook - Target real GDP growth: 2.5 percent in 2010, moving towards 5.6 percent by 2014. - Projected average real GDP growth for 2010-2014: approximately 4.3 percent. - Drivers: combined improvement in primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors. ### Required policy actions to achieve objectives - The government must observe substantial budget discipline and fiscal restraint to generate a minimum of resources required to finance the PRGS. - The wage bill must remain constant or contract following implementation of the public sector reforms. - Additional resources must be allocated to PRGS implementation through increased investments, particularly in the key sectors of agriculture, stockbreeding, fishing, and tourism. - Substantial investment is particularly important in the agricultural sector owing to its importance in GDP formation and its preponderant role in the economy as the key source of wealth, revenue, and job creation. - Reforms aiming to improve the investment climate must be executed to attract further foreign direct investment to support tourism sector development. - The government must emphasize promotion of tourism sector activities to exploit the enormous potential this sector offers. - More tax revenue must be mobilized and collected. - The government must take the steps required to reduce external debt service under the HIPC Initiative. - The money supply must increase substantially to accompany economic growth, and inflation levels must be controlled. - Dynamic performance in the banking sector must lead to easier access to credit for the poor to support the development of income-generating activities, and for the private sector. ### Sector growth assumptions 2010-2014 — key figures - Primary, secondary, tertiary average annual growth rates for 2010-2014: 4.6 percent, 2.18 percent, and 3 percent respectively. - Primary sector: - Expected growth: 2.5 percent in 2010 to reach 5.9 percent by 2014. - Agricultural production increase targeted: 15 percent (driven by modernization, productivity increases, improved marketing and road construction). - Fishing sector real growth target: 15 percent (via acquisition of new boats, increased processing and storage, more cold chambers and export facilities, rationalized licensing). - Stockbreeding growth target: 6 percent. - Forestry subsector growth target: 6 percent (with consolidation as world’s number one producer of ylang ylang). - Secondary sector: - Projected growth: 0.5 percent in 2010 and 1.7 percent in 2014. - Manufacturing industry medium-term growth: 6.5 percent (driven by possible launch of processing activities in the fishing subsector). - Energy and water subsector average growth: 12 percent (with modernization investments). - Building and public works subsector growth: 7.5 percent (supported by EU road construction investments and private property construction), though its contribution to national wealth formation should remain modest. - Tertiary sector: - Hotel subsector anticipated average growth: 15.5 percent during 2010-2014 (driven by tourism development). - Financial sector average growth: 15 percent (from revitalization of banking and microfinance). - Transportation and telecommunications average growth: 15 percent per annum for 2010-2014 (from mobile telephony and telecommunications investments, sector liberalization, submarine cable connection, improved roads, new airlines, and construction of an international airport in Nzwani). ### Demand, investment, and financing assumptions - External demand: exports expected to increase by 4 percent on average for 2010-2014 (driven by world recovery beginning in 2010). - Domestic financing investment rate: increasing from 1 percent in 2010 to approximately 2.3 percent in 2014. - Investment with external financing: average increase of approximately 12 percent for 2010-2014. - Investment rate path: - 6.9 percent in 2009, - 14.3 percent in 2012, - 13.3 percent in 2014. ### Fiscal framework targets - Budget revenue: increase from 13.6 percent of GDP in 2010 to 15 percent of GDP in 2014. - Emphasis on fiscal consolidation and special effort to control current expenditure, particularly the wage bill, to reduce its share of GDP. *Source: _cr10190 - 2.5 percent real GDP growth by 2010, and to move towards 5.6 percent by 2014. During the (PDF excerpt).* ### 15.2 percent in 2010 to 13.5 percent in 2014. The primary balance of GDP should therefore be ### _cr10190 - 15.2 percent in 2010 to 13.5 percent in 2014. The primary balance of GDP should therefore be ### PRGS scenario: key macroeconomic aggregates (Table 5.6 — in billions of Comorian francs, unless otherwise indicated) - Projections by year (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014) - GDP at market prices (billions of CF): 184.20, 194.88, 208.01, 223.27, 242.13, 262.76 - Budget revenue: 23.95, 26.50, 28.71, 32.37, 35.59, 39.41 - Tax revenue: 18.97, 21.24, 23.09, 26.35, 29.06, 32.32 - Nontax revenue: 4.97, 5.26, 5.62, 6.03, 6.54, 7.09 - Total expenditure: 40.7, 57.24, 61.1, 65.26, 69.02, 70.67 - Capital expenditure: 12.71, 27.1, 29.3, 31.9, 33.3, 34.90 - Current expenditure: 27.99, 30.14, 31.80, 33.36, 35.72, 35.77 - Wages: 16.30, 16.79, 16.95, 17.46, 17.63, 17.98 - Wages / Total revenue (in percent): 68.1%, 63.3%, 59.1%, 53.9%, 49.5%, 45.6% - Internally-financed capital expenditure: 1.01, 2, 3.1, 4.2, 5.1, 6.1 - Externally-financed capital expenditure: 11.7, 25.1, 26.2, 27.7, 28.2, 28.8 - External financing: 12.34, 12.12, 13.20, 14.58, 16.17, 16.5 - Project grants: 11.04, 12.12, 13.20, 14.58, 16.17, 16.5 - Nonproject grants: 1.30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 - Primary balance: -4.0, -3.6, -3.1, -1.0, -0.1, 3.6 - Overall balance (not including grants): -16.8, -30.7, -32.4, -32.9, -33.4, -31.3 - Financing gap: 4.42, 18.61, 19.19, 18.31, 17.25, 14.76 - Real GDP growth (in percent): 1.2, 2.5, 3.6, 4.4, 5.5, 5.6 ### PRGS scenario: key macroeconomic aggregates (Table 5.7 — as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) - Projections by year (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014) - GDP at market prices (billions of CF): 184.20, 194.88, 208.01, 223.27, 242.13, 262.76 - Budget revenue: 10.3, 10.9, 11.1, 11.8, 12, 12.3 - Tax revenue: 2.7, 2.7, 2.7, 2.7, 2.7, 2.7 - Nontax revenue: 13, 13.6, 13.8, 14.5, 14.7, 15 - Total expenditure: 19.5, 29.1, 29.1, 28.9, 28.4, 26.8 - Capital expenditure: 6.9, 13.9, 14.1, 14.3, 13.8, 13.3 - Current expenditure: 12.6, 15.2, 15, 14.6, 14.6, 13.5 - Wages: 8.9, 8.8, 8.3, 8, 7.6, 7.1 - Wages/Total revenue (in percent): 68.07, 63.35, 59.05, 53.93, 49.53, 45.63 - Internally-financed capital expenditure: 0.5, 1, 1.5, 1.9, 2.1, 2.3 - Externally-financed capital expenditure: 6.4, 12.9, 12.6, 12.4, 11.6, 11 - External financing: 6, 6.2, 6.3, 6.5, 6.7, 6.3 - Project grants: 6, 6.2, 6.3, 6.5, 6.7, 6.3 - Nonproject grants: 0.7, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 - Primary balance: -2.2, -1.9, -1.5, -0.4, -0.1, 1.4 - Overall balance not including grants: -9.1, -15.8, -15.6, -14.7, -13.8, -11.9 - Financing gap: 2.4, 9.6, 9.2, 8.2, 7.1, 5.6 - Real GDP growth (in percent): 1.2, 2.5, 3.6, 4.4, 5.5, 5.6 ### MDG scenario: scope and financing assumptions - The PRGS scenario reflects only a small share (3 percent) of financing requirements to achieve the MDGs, estimated at US$29.5 billion during the period 2008-2015. - The MDG scenario reflects all costs related to MDG achievement based on the MDG costing study by ministerial departments. - It involves substantial investments from technical and financial partners in agriculture, education, gender, health, water and sanitation, energy, and transportation, with an assumption of a significant improvement in government capacity to absorb external resources. - The tables indicate required investments by MDG sector in Comorian francs and U.S. dollars for comparative purposes. ### MDG sector costs (selected sector totals and aggregates from Table 5.8 — US$ operations) - ENERGY (operations, 2008–2015): 163,015,550; 331,607,986; 508,168,904; 692,998,463; 886,406,915; 1,088,715,279; 1,300,255,710; 1,521,371,875; 6,492,540,681 (2008-2015) - ROADS/TRANSPORTATION (operations, 2008–2015): 426,421,681; 458,587,287; 490,129,780; 522,283,305; 553,285,077; 585,408,133; 617,144,573; 647,893,304; 4,301,153,139 (2008-2015) - GENDER (operations, 2008–2015): 825,397; 991,336; 1,159,045; 1,327,845; 1,491,696; 1,665,176; 1,843,170; 2,026,367; 11,330,033 (2008-2015) - RURAL DEVELOPMENT (operations, 2008–2015): 26,407,782; 93,205,592; 119,776,232; 146,134,501; 407,153,593; 221,609,097; 263,280,812; 314,690,688; 1,592,258,296 (2008-2015) - HEALTH (operations, 2008–2015): 178,406,486; 176,794,749; 189,353,139; 273,534,096; 362,542,415; 544,197,670; 645,308,207; 751,281,066; 3,121,417,829 (2008-2015) - EDUCATION (operations, 2008–2015): 54,205,513; 49,902,781; 61,664,132; 74,941,404; 79,053,431; 85,780,708; 93,920,399; 102,960,084; 602,428,452 (2008-2015) - SANITATION (operations, 2008–2015): 1,378,942,486; 1,463,649,543; 1,548,356,600; 1,633,063,657; 1,717,770,714; 1,802,477,770; 1,887,184,827; 1,971,891,884; 13,403,337,481 (2008-2015) ### MDG total costs (aggregate totals) - Total cost (US$ operations) by year and 2008-2015: - 2008: 2,228,224,896 - 2009: 2,574,739,274 - 2010: 2,918,607,831 - 2011: 3,344,283,270 - 2012: 4,007,703,840 - 2013: 4,329,853,834 - 2014: 4,808,937,698 - 2015: 5,312,115,269 - 2008-2015 total (US$): 29,524,465,912 - Total cost (Comorian francs operations) by year and 2008-2015: - 2008: 588,404,212,040 - 2009: 692,761,858,755 - 2010: 797,064,551,133 - 2011: 927,160,282,982 - 2012: 1,131,980,963,285 - 2013: 1,231,388,350,760 - 2014: 1,380,415,791,792 - 2015: 1,538,516,011,129 - 2008-2015 total (CF): 8,287,692,021,876 ### Observations on fiscal stance and MDG financing - The PRGS scenario implies an improving primary balance, moving from negative balances in early years to a surplus beginning in 2013 in Table 5.6 (Primary balance: -4.0 in 2009 to 3.6 in 2014). - The MDG scenario requires substantially larger investment flows than those reflected in the PRGS scenario; the PRGS covers only 3 percent of the MDG financing requirements (US$29.5 billion total 2008-2015). - Achieving the MDG scenario presumes substantial external partner funding and a significant improvement in the government’s capacity to absorb external resources. ### IMF scenario (introductory note) - With reference to recent trends and IMF Emergency Post Conflict Assistance, the Comoros can be expected to experience a decline in real GDP growth compared with the previous scenario. The growth rate should be situated at an average of *Source: Ministry of Finance, Budget, and Planning, Office of the General Commissioner for Planning.* ### 3.6 percent for the period 2010-2014, as against 4.3 percent in the PRGS scenario. ### _cr10190 - 3.6 percent for the period 2010-2014, as against 4.3 percent in the PRGS scenario. ### Macroeconomic projections (IMF scenario) - Real GDP growth rate (in percent): 2010: 1.0; 2011: 2.0; 2012: 3.0; 2013: 3.50; (Table 5.9) - Real GDP growth rate (in percent) (alternate presentation, percent of GDP table): 2009: 1; 2010: 2; 2011: 3; 2012: 3.5; 2013: 4 (Table 5.10) - GDP at market prices (billions of CF): 2009: 192.82; 2010: 199.45; 2011: 211.84; 2012: 226.96; 2013: 244.36 (Table 5.9) - Investment rate: average of 14.5 percent per annum (text) - Domestic savings: peak at 5.2 percent in 2013 (text) ### Fiscal outlook and balance indicators - Budget revenue (billions of CF): 2009: 24.48; 2010: 25.94; 2011: 28.39; 2012: 31.55; 2013: 34.94 (Table 5.9) - Tax revenue (billions of CF): 2009: 18.31; 2010: 19.62; 2011: 21.68; 2012: 24.36; 2013: 27.20 (Table 5.9) - Nontax revenue (billions of CF): 2009: 6.17; 2010: 6.32; 2011: 6.71; 2012: 7.19; 2013: 7.74 (Table 5.9) - Total expenditure (billions of CF): 2009: 40.80; 2010: 42.48; 2011: 45.40; 2012: 49.04; 2013: 52.84 (Table 5.9) - Capital expenditure (billions of CF): 2009: 12.30; 2010: 13.30; 2011: 14.60; 2012: 16.26; 2013: 18.36 (Table 5.9) - Current expenditure (billions of CF): 2009: 28.50; 2010: 29.18; 2011: 30.80; 2012: 32.77; 2013: 34.49 (Table 5.9) - Wages (billions of CF): 2009: 16.90; 2010: 17.09; 2011: 17.60; 2012: 18.48; 2013: 19.13 (Table 5.9) - Wages/Total revenue (in percent): 2009: 69%; 2010: 66%; 2011: 62%; 2012: 59%; 2013: 55% (Table 5.9) - Internally-financed capital expenditure (billions of CF): 2009: 1.03; 2010: 1.25; 2011: 1.41; 2012: 1.71; 2013: 2.23 (Table 5.9) - Externally-financed capital expenditure (billions of CF): 2009: 10.74; 2010: 11.47; 2011: 12.57; 2012: 13.88; 2013: 15.39 (Table 5.9) - External financing (billions of CF): 2009: 16.79; 2010: 6.20; 2011: 6.30; 2012: 6.50; 2013: 6.70 (Table 5.9) - Project grants (billions of CF): 2009: 11.33; 2010: 6.20; 2011: 6.30; 2012: 6.50; 2013: 6.70 (Table 5.9) - Nonproject grants (billions of CF): 2009: 5.46; 2010: 0; 2011: 0; 2012: 0; 2013: 0 (Table 5.9) - Primary balance (billions of CF): 2009: -3.20; 2010: -2.60; 2011: -1.80; 2012: -0.60; 2013: 0.60 (Table 5.9) - Primary balance (% of GDP): 2009: -1.6; 2010: -1.3; 2011: -0.8; 2012: -0.3; 2013: 0.3 (Table 5.10) - Overall balance not including grants (billions of CF), Table 5.9: -16.3; -16.5; -17.0; -2.8; -1.6 (2009–2013) - Overall balance not including grants (% of GDP), Table 5.10: 2009: -8.5; 2010: -8.3; 2011: -8; 2012: -1.2; 2013: -0.7 - Financing gap (billions of CF), Table 5.9: 2009: 9.22; 2010: 6.97; 2011: 6.50; 2012: 6.49; 2013: 5.15 - Financing gap (percent of GDP), Table 5.10: 2009: 4.8; 2010: 3.5; 2011: 3.1; 2012: 2.9; 2013: 2.1 ### Public finance management measures and outcomes (text) - Fiscal control measures: efforts to control the wage bill and public expenditure are expected to reduce the financing deficit to 2.1 percent of GDP by 2013, compared with 4.8 percent in 2009 (text). - Domestic primary balance trajectory: improves to a slight surplus of 0.3 percent of GDP in 2013, as against -1.6 percent in 2009 (text). ### Comparative scenarios (extracts from Table 5.11) - IMF scenario vs PRGS and MDG scenarios (selected comparisons for 2010–2014): - GDP at market prices (CF billions) (example entries): 2010: PRGS 194.88; IMF scen. 199.5; 2011: PRGS 208.01; IMF scen. 211.8; 2012: PRGS 223.27; IMF scen. 226.96; 2013: PRGS 242.13; IMF scen. 244.4; 2014: PRGS 262.76; IMF scen. 244.4 (Table 5.11) - Budget revenue (% of GDP) (selected entries): 2010: PRGS 13.6; IMF scen. 13; 2011: PRGS 13.8; IMF scen. 13.4; 2012: PRGS 14.5; IMF scen. 13.9; 2013: PRGS 14.7; IMF scen. 14.3; 2014: PRGS 15; IMF scen. 14.3 (Table 5.11) - Total expenditure (% of GDP) (selected entries): 2010: PRGS 29.1; IMF scen. 21.3; 2011: PRGS 29.1; IMF scen. 21.4; 2012: PRGS 28.9; IMF scen. 21.6; 2013: PRGS 28.4; IMF scen. 21.6; 2014: PRGS 26.8; IMF scen. 21.6 (Table 5.11) - Capital expenditure (% of GDP) (selected entries): 2010: PRGS 13.9; IMF scen. 6.7; 2011: PRGS 14.1; IMF scen. 6.9; 2012: PRGS 14.3; IMF scen. 7.2; 2013: PRGS 13.8; IMF scen. 7.5; 2014: PRGS 13.3; IMF scen. 7.5 (Table 5.11) - Wages / total revenue (in percent) (selected entries): 2010: PRGS 63.3; IMF scen. 65.87; 2011: PRGS 59.1; IMF scen. 62.0; 2012: PRGS 53.9; IMF scen. 58.6; 2013: PRGS 49.3; IMF scen. 54.75; 2014: PRGS 45.6; IMF scen. 54.75 (Table 5.11) - Financing gap (CF billions) (selected entries): 2010: PRGS 18.6; IMF scen. 6.97; 2011: PRGS 19.2; IMF scen. 6.50; 2012: PRGS 18.3; IMF scen. 6.50; 2013: PRGS 17.3; IMF scen. 5.15; 2014: PRGS 14.8; IMF scen. 5.15 (Table 5.11) - Real GDP growth rate (selected entries): 2010: PRGS 2.5; MDG scen. 2; IMF scen. 3.6; 2011: PRGS 3.6; MDG scen. 3; IMF scen. 4.4; 2012: PRGS 3.5; MDG scen. 5.5; IMF scen. 4; 2013: PRGS 5.6; MDG scen. 4; IMF scen. 5.6? (Table 5.11 — table formatting in source is disaggregated) Sources: Comorian authorities and IMF staff estimates and forecasts. (*) In billions of Comorian francs unless otherwise indicated. *Italics: Extracted from the provided IMF PDF content.* ### CHAPTER VI ### CHAPTER VI ### 6.0. Introduction — Overall PRGS financing requirements (2010–2014) - The strategy includes a total of 32 priority programs. - Required financial resources (including those already mobilized): CF 463 billion for the period, equivalent to an average of CF 92 billion per annum. - Financial resources to be obtained during the period: CF 418 billion, equivalent to an average of CF 83 billion per year. - Resources currently available for the period amount to CF 46.1 billion, equivalent to 9.2 billion per annum. - The PRGS budgeting exercise indicates financing gaps far exceeding the estimates in the PRGS macroeconomic framework scenario, but much lower than the requirements assessed in the MDG budget exercise. Key totals by core strategy (Table 6.1, millions of CF) - Core strategy I. Stabilize the economy and lay the groundwork for strong and equitable growth - Financing acquired: 20,389 - Financing required: 234,285 - Total (CF millions): 254,674 - %: 55.0 - Core strategy II. Strengthen key sectors by focusing on institution building and ensuring a broader role for the private sector - Financing acquired: 802 - Financing required: 55,025 - Total (CF millions): 55,826 - %: 12.0 - Core strategy III. Strengthen governance and social cohesion - Financing acquired: 6,560 - Financing required: 14,817 - Total (CF millions): 21,377 - %: 4.6 - Core strategy IV. Improve the health status of the general public - Financing acquired: 8,406 - Financing required: 62,234 - Total (CF millions): 70,641 - %: 15.2 - Core strategy V. Promote education and vocational training with the aim of developing human capital - Financing acquired: 4,020 - Financing required: 28,768 - Total (CF millions): 32,788 - %: 7.1 - Core strategy VI. Promote environmental sustainability and civilian security - Financing acquired: 5,013 - Financing required: 23,030 - Total (CF millions): 28,043 - %: 6.1 - Total (all core strategies) - Financing acquired: 45,190 - Financing required: 418,159 - Total (CF millions): 463,349 - %: 100 Key totals by major sector (Table 6.2, millions of CF) - Agriculture - Financing acquired: 471 - Financing required: 5,808 - Total (CF millions): 15,854 - %: 3.4 - Fishing - Financing acquired: 558 - Financing required: 18,607 - Total (CF millions): 19,165 - %: 4.1 - Stockbreeding - Financing acquired: 0 - Financing required: 9,781 - Total (CF millions): 9,781 - %: 2.1 - Tourism - Financing acquired: 0 - Financing required: 6,025 - Total (CF millions): 6,025 - %: 1.3 - Energy - Financing acquired: 850 - Financing required: 70,154 - Total (CF millions): 71,004 - %: 15.3 - Drinking water and sanitation - Financing acquired: 14,190 - Financing required: 26,445 - Total (CF millions): 40,635 - %: 8.8 - Economic and communication infrastructure - Financing acquired: 3,616 - Financing required: 67,025 - Total (CF millions): 70,641 - %: 15.2 - Environment and public security - Financing acquired: 5,013 - Financing required: 23,030 - Total (CF millions): 28,043 - %: 6.1 - Education - Financing acquired: 4,020 - Financing required: 28,768 - Total (CF millions): 32,788 - %: 7.1 - Health - Financing acquired: 8,406 - Financing required: 62,234 - Total (CF millions): 70,641 - %: 15.2 - Private and financial sector - Financing acquired: 197 - Financing required: 4,804 - Total (CF millions): 5,001 - %: 1.1 - Governance and social cohesion - Financing acquired: 6,560 - Financing required: 14,817 - Total (CF millions): 21,377 - %: 4.6 - Fiscal reform and commercial policy - Financing acquired: 1,733 - Financing required: 70,661 - Total (CF millions): 72,394 - %: 15.6 - Total (all sectors) - Financing acquired: 45,190 - Financing required: 418,159 - Total (CF millions): 463,349 - %: 100 ### 6.1. Core Strategy I — Stabilize the economy and lay the groundwork for strong and equitable growth (2010–2014) - Total budget by program for Core Strategy 1: approximately CF 255 billion, of which CF 234 billion must be acquired. - Total Core Strategy 1 (2010–2014) - Financing acquired: 20,389 - Financing required: 234,285 - Total (CF millions): 254,674 Selected program-level totals (2010–2014, millions de CF) - Program 1. Improve state and fiscal operations - Acquired (2010–2014): 1,391 - Required (2010–2014): 68,583 - Program 1.2 Integrate and facilitate domestic and international trade - Acquired (2010–2014): 342 - Required (2010–2014): 2,078 - 1.3. Improve energy supply at low cost - Acquired (2010–2014): 850 - Required (2010–2014): 70,154 - 1.4. Improve communication infrastructure - Acquired (2010–2014): 3,616 - Required (2010–2014): 67,025 - 1.5. Increase access to drinking water, sanitation, and sustainable resource management - Acquired (2010–2014): 14,190 - Required (2010–2014): 26,445 ### 6.2. Core Strategy II — Strengthen key sectors; broaden private sector role (2010–2014) - Total budget for the period: CF 55.8 billion, of which CF 55 billion is required. - Total Core Strategy 2 (2010–2014) - Financing acquired: 802 - Financing required: 55,025 - Total (CF millions): 55,826 Selected program-level totals (2010–2014, millions de CF) - Program 2.1. Support private sector organization - Acquired: 287 - Required: 2,224 - Program 2.2. Financial intermediation and microcredit - Acquired: 10 - Required: 2,580 - Program 2.3. Support property restructuring and consolidation - Acquired: 20 - Required: 1,610 - Program 2.4. Support the creation of a favorable environment for agriculture sector development - Acquired: 27 - Required: 5,974 - Program 2.5. Restore agricultural and agrofood production - Acquired: 0 - Required: 8,224 - Program 2.6. Protect livestock against exotic infectious diseases and intensify animal production sectors - Acquired: 0 - Required: 9,781 - Program 2.7. Create a favorable environment for balanced sectoral development - Acquired: 45 - Required: 309 - Program 2.8. Develop the conservation, processing, and marketing system for fish products - Acquired: 513 - Required: 18,298 - Program 2.9. Support tourism development - Acquired: 0 - Required: 6,025 ### 6.3. Core Strategy III — Strengthen governance and social cohesion (2010–2014) - Total budget for the period: CF 21.7 billion, of which CF 14.8 is required. - Total Core Strategy 3 (2010–2014) - Financing acquired: 6,560 - Financing required: 14,817 - Total (CF millions): 21,377 Selected program-level totals (2010–2014, millions de CF) - Program 1. Promote social cohesion, solidarity, and consolidation of peace - Acquired: 2,247 - Required: 4,857 - Program 2. Promote anticorruption measures and enhance fiscal transparency - Acquired: 2,008 - Required: 2,282 - Program 3. Strengthen the capacities of the judiciary institution - Acquired: 1,660 - Required: 4,186 - Program 4. Fight terrorism and transverse crime and strengthen civilian security - Acquired: 645 - Required: 3,495 ### 6.4. Core Strategy IV — Improve the health status of the general public (2010–2014) - The budget by program for the period: CF 70.6 billion, CF 62.2 of which is required. - Total Core Strategy 4 (2010–2014) - Financing acquired: 8,406 - Financing required: 62,234 - Total (CF millions): 70,641 Selected program-level totals (2010–2014, millions de CF) - Program 4.1. Fight malaria and priority diseases - Acquired: 5,126 - Required: 11,211 - Program 4.2. Integrated sexual and reproductive health development - Acquired: 6 - Required: 6,245 - Program 4.3. Fight HIV/AIDS and sexually-transmissible infections - Acquired: 100 - Required: 696 - Program 4.4. Strengthen the efficacy of all aspects of the health system - Acquired: 3,174 - Required: 44,083 ### 6.5. Core Strategy V — Promote education and vocational training (2010–2014) - The budget for Core Strategy 5 for the period 2010–2014 amounts to CF 32.8 billion, CF 4,020 of which is required. - Total Core Strategy 5 (2010–2014) - Financing acquired: 4,020 - Financing required: 28,768 - Total (CF millions): 32,788 Selected program-level totals (2010–2014, millions de CF) - Priority Program 1. Develop education, technical instruction, and occupational training to reflect job market requirements - Acquired: 2,718 - Required: 2,711 - Priority Program 2. Improve access to quality basic (preschool and elementary school) and secondary education - Acquired: 1,258 - Required: 19,246 - Priority Program 3. Develop competent human resources and the sectoral (SWAP) program in education - Acquired: 45 - Required: 3,822 - Priority Program 4. Promote literacy, sports, and cultural activities - Acquired: 0 - Required: 2,989 ### 6.6. Core Strategy VI — Promote environmental sustainability and civilian security (2010–2014) - The budget by program for the period 2010–2014 amounts to CF 28 billion, CF 23 billion of which is required. - Total Core Strategy 6 (2010–2014) - Financing acquired: 5,013 - Financing required: 23,030 - Total (CF millions): 28,043 Selected program-level totals (2010–2014, millions de CF) - Program 6.1. Conserve biodiversity and equitably share its advantages - Acquired: 192 - Required: 1,535 - Program 6.2. Conserve and upgrade agro-biodiversity - Acquired: 0 - Required: 5,240 - Program 6.3. Adapt to climate change - Acquired: 3,312 - Required: 10,500 - Program 6.4. Fiscal rehabilitation with an ecological approach - Acquired: 1,300 - Required: 4,350 - Program 6.5. Capacity building for multisector environmental management and coordination - Acquired: 0 - Required: 1,180 - Program 6.6. Implement a preparation, response, and management systems for natural and climate risks and disasters - Acquired: 209 - Required: 225 - The financial resources required from 2015 will be determined to reflect progress in priority programs and in the overall strategy. Based on these assessments, a new program for the period 2015-2019 should be developed to reflect achievements. *Source: CHAPTER VI — ESTIMATED PRGS FINANCING REQUIREMENTS (2010–2014), _cr10190 - CHAPTER VI* ### 1. Consolidation of existing progress; ### _cr10190 - 1. Consolidation of existing progress; ### Objectives and implementation approach - Consolidation priorities: - 1. Consolidation of existing progress; - 2. Promotion of the participative approach and national ownership; - 3. Gradual adoption of the results-based management approach at the national and sectoral levels; - 4. Accountability of the technical ministries and islands in the execution and monitoring of different priority programs in their respective areas of authority; - 5. New impetus for and strengthening of the statistical system at the central, sectoral, and decentralized levels; - 6. Involvement of civil society in the monitoring and evaluation process. - Implementation principles: - Gradual implementation reflecting resource and capacity constraints, with institutional and human capacity building activities, and intermediate outputs at each stage. - Begin with a pragmatic approach of rapid actions designed to produce short-term results considered useful by decision makers and users; then expand and enhance the system through gradual development of strategic partnerships between involved structures. ### Design objectives and required characteristics of PRGS monitoring and evaluation data - The PRGS monitoring and evaluation system is designed to provide data and analyses meeting these characteristics: - 1. Relevant in PRGS monitoring and useful in decision making. Coordinate players and operations to collect, analyze and disseminate data, and prepare progress and performance reports. - 2. Representative of and faithful to the islands and socioeconomic sectors. Ensure rigorous application of data collection and processing tools and conduct disaggregated analyses useful in decision making. - 3. Regular, useful, and timely. Effective coordination to observe schedules for collection, analysis, production of reports, and dissemination to users. - Expected contributions of the monitoring and evaluation system: - 1. Reduce data duplications to save substantial financial, human, and material resources and to reduce confusion when different values are registered for the same indicator; - 2. Make the data and analyses available to all users, requiring an effective information management system and communication strategy. An integrated information management system must be implemented gradually for effective public management of programs and adequate monitoring. ### Institutional framework for monitoring and evaluation (structures) - The institutional framework is based on seven structures and involves sectoral ministries and institutions participating in development programs and projects: - 1. Interministerial Monitoring and Coordination Committee; - 2. Strategic Committee for Coordination of Development Assistance; - 3. PRGS Technical Steering Committee (Office of the General Commissioner for Planning); - 4. Permanent Technical Secretariat for PRGS Monitoring and Evaluation; - 5. National Statistics Directorate, decentralized agencies of the Ministry of Planning in the three islands; - 6. Sectoral Technical Groups; - 7. Committees for Development Planning and Monitoring and Evaluation (COPSED) in the three islands. ### Roles and responsibilities of key bodies - Interministerial Committee on Monitoring and Coordination: - Government body responsible for policy decisions and dialog with development partners. - Coordinates ad hoc meetings to keep abreast of PRGS implementation progress. - Responsible for decisions to improve coordination and efficacy in implementing development policies, programs, and projects related to the PRGS. - Chaired by the Secretary-General of the government; comprised of all members of the Council of Ministers; secretariat covered by the Office of the General Commissioner for Planning. - Strategic Committee for Coordination of Development Assistance: - Responsible for effective coordination and optimization of development aid. - Chaired by the head of state; comprised of members of the Extraordinary Council of Ministers and representatives from technical and financial partners; secretariat by the Office of the General Commissioner for Planning. - May request PRGS Steering Secretariat reports on PRGS status or specific programs/projects. - PRGS Technical Steering Committee and Permanent Technical Secretariat: - Technical Steering Committee: supervises, coordinates, and steers PRGS monitoring and evaluation; at the heart of the system. - Permanent Technical Secretariat: supports the Committee, covers secretariat functions, ensures system functioning and adherence to monitoring and reporting timetables. - Office of the General Commissioner for Planning, through the Steering Committee and Permanent Secretariat, reports PRGS progress to the Interministerial Committee and to the Strategic Committee on execution of priority programs and projects. - Specific responsibilities of the PRGS Technical Steering Secretariat: - 1. To coordinate the PRGS monitoring and evaluation system and implementation; - 2. To ensure that the adopted performance indicators are consistent with the PRGS core strategies and MDGs, and that they are useful in assessing progress in the area of growth and poverty reduction; - 3. To propose a working program to monitor changes in living conditions and poverty, coordinate studies on the causes of poverty and impact assessments for certain operations that have been implemented; - 4. To coordinate and contribute to the preparation of annual reports on the progress of PRSP implementation; - 5. To execute and coordinate execution of topical studies in connection with the PRGS and reflecting the requirements of decision makers and monitoring and evaluation system users. - Additional tasks: disseminate study results and progress reports, publish studies and reports, organize workshops, disseminate information to civil society and the public, and develop a communication network with sectoral ministries and island representatives. - Committee composition: members of the Strategic Committee for Coordination of Development Assistance instituted under Decree 09_062/PR, plus all ministry secretaries-general and island planning directors; chaired by the General Commissioner for Planning. - Permanent Technical Secretariat and Sectoral Technical Groups (GTS): - Secretariat prepares the annual strategy implementation report; works with GTS which prepare annual performance reports for programs and projects. - GTS responsibilities: planning, implementation, management of programs and projects; monitoring execution; collection of sectoral data; monitor priority program execution status; implementation of Medium-Term Sectoral Expenditure Frameworks (CDS-MT) and preparation of the Annual Working Plan (PTA) as operational basis for implementation and monitoring of PRGS priority program execution. - GTS chaired by secretaries-general of sectoral ministries; comprised of technical staff of ministries and technical and financial partners; participate under Presidential Decree 09_062/PR. - Committees for Development Planning and Monitoring and Evaluation (COPSED): - Produce fundamental information at island level; work closely with GTS on planning, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation of development programs and projects. - COPSEDs work directly with beneficiaries and are front-line structures in monitoring and evaluation. - National Statistics Directorate and decentralized units: - Agency responsible for statistical data collection and analysis. - In the PRSP monitoring and evaluation system, responsible for coordination of the collection system in close collaboration with decentralized Ministry of Planning units in the islands, through implementation of the National Strategy for Statistical Development (SNDS). - Responsible for conducting and supervising national data collection activities, producing reports on socioeconomic development and household living conditions, and contributing to PRGS progress and performance reports. - Supported by Statistics Services of decentralized Ministry of Planning units in the islands; these structures will be technically strengthened for field data collection. - Major national surveys to be carried out: the census, the Health and Demographic Survey (enquête Démographie et Santé—DHS), and the comprehensive household survey (enquête intégrée auprès des ménages--EIM). - National Statistics Directorate roles with the Permanent Secretariat: - 1. To identify users’ information requirements for the monitoring and evaluation system and indicators for which information is required; - 2. To collect and format the secondary data required for PRGS monitoring; - 3. To conduct surveys on household living conditions; - 4. To analyze the data on household living conditions and poverty; - 5. To participate in conducting ad hoc surveys in connection with PRGS program and project monitoring and evaluation. - Other partners: - Ministry of Finance/Budget Directorate, Ministry of Economy, and the central bank: produce studies and information on the economy, government revenue and expenditure, and on macroeconomic and financial indicators; data used to assess overall and sectoral performance and to draft certain sections of the annual PRGS progress report. - Civil society: - Participate at several levels: provide assessments as direct beneficiaries, participate in surveys, provide information for assessing results and future requirements, participate directly in monitoring and evaluation activities including organization, promotion, and reporting of public perceptions, and participate in awareness meetings on results and conclusions. Lessons and recommendations will be shared with civil society to improve project efficiency and effectiveness. ### Features and components of the monitoring and evaluation system - The monitoring and evaluation system is designed to produce information useful in decision making and includes three complementary components: - 1. Monitoring of selected PRGS performance indicators; - 2. Monitoring of the execution of programs and projects to be implemented in the PRGS framework; - 3. Evaluation of policies and programs implemented in the PRGS framework. - Monitoring of performance indicators: - Assesses changes in population living conditions and the performance of the Comorian economy through measurement of selected performance indicators (effects and impacts). - Essentially involves annual or biennial monitoring and measurement of the performance indicators presented in Annex I to this paper to prepare an annual PRGS progress report. - Systematic production of baseline indicators for each priority area identified in the PRGS; provides data on: - (i) trends in poverty; - (ii) overall economic and sectoral growth and the macroeconomic framework; - (iii) infrastructure development; - (iv) private sector development; - (v) social sector (education, health, and social security); - (vi) governance. - Monitoring of PRGS priority program execution: - Monitors use of financial resources and attainment of annual results targets established by agencies in their annual working plans. - Each sector must produce an annual performance report establishing linkages between use of resources and results achieved vs. targets envisaged for the period; these reports serve as benchmark documents for the annual PRGS progress report. - Execution monitoring involves collection and analysis of information on finance, use of resources, and indicators on process, activities, outputs, and effects of programs and projects. - The annual program and project performance reports will more specifically cover: - 1. Measurement of performance in the area of financial management (input indicators); - 2. Measurement of institutional performance and governance in management of processes and execution of activities according to the adopted timetables and budgets (process and activity indicators); - 3. Measurement and monitoring of performance in accordance with the adopted targets to determine any discrepancies between projections and performance (output indicators). *Source: _cr10190 - 1. Consolidation of existing progress;* ### 4. Measurement of perceptions, satisfaction, and use of services by the target populations ### 4. Measurement of perceptions, satisfaction, and use of services by the target populations ### Role of beneficiary surveys and effect indicators - Surveys of beneficiaries are a core component of the monitoring and evaluation system to provide users’ assessments of services delivered by administrative agencies, project supervisors, and public enterprises. - Information from surveys will be used to analyze discrepancies between forecasts and physical and budget outputs in execution of priority programs and activities and to recommend adjustments in execution of operations or programs, or budgets reallocated to optimize efforts to reach adopted objectives. ### Policy analysis, program, and project evaluation - Evaluations will be carried out on an ad hoc basis according to decision makers’ requirements and resource availability. - Types of evaluations: - Ex ante assessments of potential projects - Midterm and completion evaluations - Ex post impact assessments measuring impacts on socioeconomic players or target populations - Data sources for evaluations: - Administrative data - Sectoral department surveys - Specific surveys of target groups - Primary data from household surveys conducted by the National Statistics Directorate - Evaluation objectives: - Measure effects of policies, programs, and projects on target groups and on PRGS development goals (growth, poverty, and social development) - Establish linkages between program/project execution and development/well‑being outcomes - Program evaluations to align with sector project timetables and decision makers’ needs so sectoral programs, strategies, and PRGS can be revised accordingly - Assess efficacy of priority programs relative to long‑term PRGS objectives - Institutional responsibilities: - The Permanent Technical Secretariat for PRGS Monitoring and Evaluation will identify/select problem scenarios for analysis, identify service providers (internal or external: research centers, consulting firms, consultants, etc.), allocate resources, supervise execution and dissemination, and use results to improve policies, programs, and intervention strategies. ### Monitoring outputs and reporting cadence - The monitoring and evaluation system will provide: - Annual PRGS progress reports to decision makers - Annual performance reports on programs and projects implemented by agencies involved - Satisfaction reports where target groups assess services offered under implemented programs and projects - Ad hoc comprehensive analyses based on assessment results ### 7.4. Progress reports and output timetable - The PRGS progress report: - Prepared annually with a participative approach, coordinated by the Office of the General Commissioner for Planning - Components to include: - Summary of cyclical factors, recent developments, and achievements in PRGS implementation structured by PRGS core strategy, and a summary of action plan execution - Performance reports on priority program implementation prepared annually by ministries involved - Statistical annex consolidating information on living conditions and poverty, economic growth, the macro framework, infrastructure, private sector, social sector (health, education, and social security), and governance — key output for monitoring performance indicators - Annex of programs and projects summarizing annual working plans organized by sector - To meet the timetable, the system must maintain, supply, and centralize: - (i) the indicators in Annex 1; and - (ii) technical and financial execution of programs and projects - Dissemination: - Monitoring and assessment reports and studies can be archived on a website for dissemination and consultation - Outputs should be highly visible and additional communication channels envisaged to promote support and exchange of good practices ### 7.5. Implications for the National Strategy on Statistical Development - Effective monitoring and evaluation requires a critical mass of information → national statistics system must be strengthened. - Implementing the national statistics development strategy aims to: - Meet statistics users’ requirements - Develop key areas in data collection - Invest in basic infrastructure for effective information collection and management - Build analytical capacities - Strengthen data dissemination - Enhance coordination with other system components - These actions will consolidate the monitoring and evaluation system. ### 7.6. Implications on capacity building - System players require: - Collection and analysis tools and standard guides for preparing progress and performance reports - A precise production timetable for report production to be observed by all parties - Capacity building needs: - Training and accompaniment across the overall cycle of programming, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation for players in national planning, program management, and monitoring and evaluation - Strengthening upstream national planning systems, especially within civil society sectors and implementing agencies - Skills to use logical framework tools, define and document relevant performance indicators, design budgets and realistic timetables, prepare contracting plans, manage government contracting cycles, oversee implementation, and implement rigorous controls and audits - Institutional corrections: - Correct problems observed during the interim phase to promote effective circulation of information, improve cooperation and steering structures, and prepare precise specifications for all agencies involved in PRGS monitoring and evaluation ### 7.7. Implications on efficacy and harmonization of Official Development Assistance (ODA) - The PRGSP is the reference document for national priorities and for steering operations of technical and financial partners. - Consultations with technical and financial partners highlighted the need to continue mutual coordination to enhance assistance effectiveness. - The 2010-2014 action plan (to be validated jointly by government and partners) aims to: - (i) strengthen assistance coordination based on national priorities and affirm government leadership; - (ii) enhance transparency, efficacy, and responsibility in management of development resources; - (iii) consolidate program approaches and common assistance implementation mechanisms; - (iv) harmonize management of partners’ missions and analytical activities to reduce costs. - Strengthening dialogue with partners via consolidation of joint sectoral technical groups and organizing: - (i) joint annual sectoral reviews; and - (ii) a joint annual PRGS review - Timing: Government intends these reviews to be conducted within the first half of each year so recommendations can be taken into account in preparing program budgets and the general state budget. ### Conclusion — operationalizing the PRGS (2010–2014) - The PRGS is the unifying framework and reference document for government interventions during 2010-2014, prepared with participation across Comorian society. - Success conditions identified: - Effective support from agencies responsible for implementation, central and island governments, and local governments - Sustained government efforts to mobilize and effectively use resources, prioritizing effective implementation of priority programs - Institutional and human capacity building at all levels for effective PRGS monitoring and assessment - Greater harmonization of assistance from technical and financial partners in accordance with the Paris Declaration - Risk mitigation: - Strengthen steering mechanisms and institute a coordination mechanism involving all players, including a powerful monitoring and evaluation system to monitor progress and propose corrective measures - Implementation step: - Government will prepare a PRGS action plan specifying medium‑term priority programs and investments to accelerate growth and achieve sustainable poverty reduction, linking PRGS, sectoral strategies, and required resources ### Key performance indicators and targets (selected figures from Annex 1) - Real growth rate — GDP: benchmark 0.8 % (2007); targets 2010: 2.5, 2011: 3.6, 2012: 4.4, 2013: 5.5, 2014: 5.8 - Agriculture, fishing, stockbreeding growth: benchmark 4.0 % (2007); targets 2010: 6.8, 2011: 9.2, 2012: 10.2, 2013: 11.3, 2014: 11.3 - Tourism sector growth: benchmark 5.2 % (2007); targets 2010–2014: 3.1 each year - Outstanding external debt: 2,041 Millions of CF (2008); targets include 2204, 2094, 5691, 6364 (subsequent years listed) - External debt services: 706 Millions of CF (2008); subsequent values include 659, 634, 608, 575 - Annual growth rate, tax revenue: CF 22 billion (benchmark 2008); targets 2010: 5, 2011: 5, 2012: 4, 2013: 3, 2014: 3 - Electrification rate: 40 % (2005); targets 2010: 50, 2011: 60, 2012: 70, 2013: 85, 2014: 90 - Proportion of population below poverty line (P0): 44.8 % (2004); 2014 target: 35 - Depth of poverty (P1): 12.8 % (2004); 2014 target: 10 - Severity of poverty (P2): 6.2 % (2004); 2014 target: 5 - Net primary school enrollment rate: 73.0 % (2007); targets 2010: 80.0, 2011: 83.0, 2012: 87.0, 2013: 90.0, 2014: 95.0 - Literacy rate (12–24 years): 70.8 % (2008); targets 2010: 76.3, 2011: 79.1, 2012: 81.8, 2013: 84.5, 2014: 87.3 - Neonatal mortality rate: 29 /1,000 (2007); targets 2010: 25, 2011: 22, 2012: 21, 2013: 20, 2014: 19 - Maternal mortality rate: 400 /100,000 (2005); targets 2010: 380, 2011: 338, 2012: 295, 2013: 255, 2014: 215 - Proportion of births in health facilities: 13.9 % (2005); targets 2010: 40, 2011: 50, 2012: 55, 2013: 60, 2014: 65 - Population with regular access to improved water source: 25 % (2008); targets 2010: 35, 2011: 45, 2012: 60, 2013: 70, 2014: 80 - Rate of increase in tourism arrivals: 14,000 Tourists (2006); targets 2010–2014: 10%, 20%, 25%, 25%, 25% *Source: _cr10190 - 4. Measurement of perceptions, satisfaction, and use of services by the target populations* ### 1.1 billion, financed by AfDB. The project focuses on strength ### _cr10190 - 1.1 billion, financed by AfDB. The project focuses on strength ### Program 1.1 — Fragile States Facility (Budget support): Strengthening the public sector - Priority focus: Strengthening of the macroeconomic framework and effective fiscal management. - Country-level financing: 1,103 (in CF). - Donor: AfDB. - Period covered: 2009-2010. - Type of activities: Budget support. - Key activities: - Adoption of key reforms; - Effective implementation of reforms in the medium term. ### Program 1.2 — Integrate and facilitate domestic and international trade - Only one program under UNDP financing. - Total financing: 491 (in CF). - Donor: UNDP. - Period covered: 2008-2012. - Project: Trade integration (Diagnostic study on trade integration--EDIC). - Priority activities: 1. Integrate trade policy into the national development and poverty reduction plans (PRSP); 2. Facilitate coordinated provision of technical assistance in the area of trade to meet requirements identified by least developed countries for world economic integration. ### Program 1.3 — Improve the energy supply at a low cost - No projects have obtained financing under this program for 2010. ### Program 1.4 — Improve basic economic infrastructure and communication services - One EU-financed project: Transportation infrastructure. - Total financing: 13,257 (in CF). - Donor: EU 10th EDF. - Period covered: 2010-2013. - Type of activities: Establishment of sector policy on transportation infrastructure and construction of infrastructure. ### Core Strategy II — Strengthen key sectors by focusing on institution building and a broader role for the private sector - Nine priority programs identified across institution building and sectoral restoration (agriculture, stockbreeding, fishing, tourism, microfinance). Program 2.1–2.2 (Institution building; Financial intermediation and microcredit) - Microfinance subsector: - Two UNDP-financed projects, total financing: 2,946 (in CF). - Program to support inclusive financing in the Comoros (PAFIC): - Total financing: 982 (in CF). - Donors: United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF) / UNDP. - Period covered: 2009-2012. - Priority activities: national policy and strategy for coordination and monitoring; strengthen central bank supervision; examine legal/regulatory framework; establish financial infrastructure; improve and expand decentralized financial institutions. - Economic revitalization component focusing on young people (FCP): - Total financing: 1,964 (in CF). - Donor: UNDP. - Period covered: 2009-2011. - Priority activities: job creation programs and financing mechanisms for young people and women; training and microcredit support; special priority operation in Mwali. Program 2.* (Agriculture, stockbreeding, fishing, tourism) - Agriculture subsector: - Two projects in progress: - PNDHD: 1,905 (in CF), IFAD, 2008-2013. Objective: contribute to poverty reduction by establishing community systems for management and sustainable exploitation of natural resources; increase agricultural productivity, income, food security, and improve household living conditions. - PREDIVAC: 1,841 (in CF), AFD, 2007-2011. Objective: diversification of agricultural sectors; strengthening of SNAC; increased access to the village of Jimilimé. - Sector subtotal: 3,746 (in CF). - Stockbreeding subsector: - No financing acquired for 2010. - Fishing subsector: - One state-financed project (Exim Bank loan): - Total financing: 3,500 (in CF). - Donor: State. - Period covered: 2009-2012. - Objective: strengthen all fishing sectors and contribute to sustainable use of fish resources. - Sector subtotal: 3,500 (in CF). - Tourism subsector: - No financing acquired for 2010. ### Core Strategy III — Strengthen governance and social cohesion - Four programs: good governance and social cohesion; legal framework/anticorruption; judiciary capacity; fight terrorism/transnational crime and civil security. Program 3.1–3.2 — Promote good governance; Improve legal framework and transparency - Three projects support good governance, capacity building, and social cohesion: - Good governance in public affairs: - Total financing: 3,314 (in CF). - Donor: 10th EDF. - Period covered: 2009-2013. - Activities: capacity building for public sector officers; technical assistance for planning; support for justice and nongovernment players; water management plan accompaniment. - Capacity building in planning: - Total financing: 2,800 (in CF). - Donor: AfDB. - Period covered: 2009-2011. - Activities: improved fiscal, debt, and statistics management; support for macroeconomic management; preparation of national accounting records; preparation of price statistics; strengthen public-private dialogue. - Governance and social cohesion (FCP): - Total financing: 246 (in CF). - Donor: UNDP. - Period covered: 2009-2011. - Activities: inter-Comorian dialog and national reconciliation; civic education; infrastructure rehabilitation; training and specialization of judges; establishment of judiciary units. - Sector subtotal: 6 317 (in CF). Program 3.3 — Strengthen capacities of the judiciary institution - One UNDP project: - Total financing: 344 (in CF). - Donor: UNDP. - Period covered: 2009-2011. - Activities: justice reform and human rights promotion; rehabilitation of penitentiary infrastructure; operationalize national consultative committee on human rights; capacity building; develop national human rights policy. - Sector subtotal: 344 (in CF). Program 3.4 — Fight terrorism and transnational crime; strengthen civil security - One UNDP project (Peace consolidation fund): - Total financing: 1,719 (in CF). - Donor: UNDP. - Period covered: 2009-2011. - Activities: security reforms (command and control strengthening; rehabilitation of infrastructure; equipment for police; human rights training; maritime border patrol/logistics); Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR) program: public disarmament and socioeconomic reintegration support. - Sector subtotal: 1,719 (in CF). ### Core Strategy IV — Improve the health of the general public - Five priority programs identified: malaria and priority diseases; integrated sexual and reproductive health; HIV/AIDS; strengthen health system efficacy; hygiene and sanitation in hospitals. Program 4.1 — Fight malaria and priority diseases - One project financed by World Fund: - Total financing: 5,303 (in CF). - Donor: WF (World Fund). - Period covered: 2009 - 2014. - Activities: active detection of large-scale cases; surveillance and response for imported malaria cases; maintenance of stocks for epidemics; human resource capacity building. - Sector subtotal: 5 303 (in CF). Program 4.2 & 4.3 — Integrated sexual and reproductive health; Fight HIV/AIDS and STIs - No project finance acquired for 2010. Program 4.4 — Strengthen efficacy of all aspects of the health system - One AFD-financed project (PASCO): - Total financing: 4,910 (in CF). - Donor: AFD. - Period covered: 2009-2013. - Activities: strengthen institutional framework for health strategy implementation; improve accessibility and quality of basic health services in Nzwani and Mwali; build medical and surgical capacities in five reference hospitals (Hombo Hospital Research Center (CHR), Fomboni CHR, Domoni CSD, Mitsamiouli Medical and Surgical Center (CMC) and Maarouf National Hospital Center (CHN)). - Sector subtotal: 4,910 (in CF). Program 4.5 — Improve hygiene and sanitation in hospitals - No project finance acquired for 2010. ### Core Strategy V — Promote education and vocational training to develop human capital - Four priority programs: vocational/technical training; access and quality of basic and secondary education; competent human resources and SWAP approach; literacy, sports, cultural activities. Priority Program 5.1 — Develop education, technical instruction, and occupational training - One EU project: - Total financing: 6,500 (in CF). - Donor: 10th EDF. - Period covered: 2009-2013. - Activities: diversify technical and occupational training supply; strengthen training system management; create conducive environment for quality higher education; strengthen education-labor partnerships; promote basic education and preparation for active life. - Sector subtotal: 6,500 (in CF). Priority Program 5.2 — Improve access and quality of basic and secondary education - One project (9th EDF / UNICEF): - Total financing: 2,300 (in CF). - Donors: 9th EDF / UNICEF. - Period covered: 2006-2011. - Activities: capacity building in accommodation and supervision; production of reference materials; integrated early childhood development; improve supply in primary and secondary education; eliminate school disparities; enhance quality of teaching and learning; strengthen languages used in education system. - Sector subtotal: 2,300 (in CF). Priority Program 5.3 — Develop competent human resources and SWAP approach in education - One program (9th EDF / UNICEF): - Total financing: 57 (in CF). - Donors: 9th EDF / UNICEF. - Period covered: 2006-2012. - Activities: capacity building for education management, planning and evaluation units; enhance school governance and staff skills; promote SWAP approach; strengthen research on the Comorian language. - Sector subtotal: 57 (in CF). Priority Program 5.4 — Promote literacy, sports, and cultural activities - One France-financed project (Social Development Fund - FSD): - Total financing: 737 (in CF). - Donor: France. - Period covered: 2009-2011. - Activities: rehabilitation of sports infrastructure; capacity building for associations and municipalities; implement functional literacy policy for youth and adults; promote sports and cultural activities; support village communities and local dynamics. - Sector subtotal: 737 (in CF). ### Core Strategy VI — Promote a healthy environment and ensure sustainable development - Environment: controlled exploitation, preservation, and regeneration. - One UNDP project for capacity building in management of natural and climate disaster risks: - Total financing: 367 (in CF). - Donor: UNDP. - Period covered: 2009_2011. - Activities: draft, adopt, and promulgate a law; analytical capacity building; implement and strengthen risk prevention and management structures; pilot mangrove regeneration operations; implement cartographic information system in high-risk areas; equipment and supplies. - Sector subtotal: 367 (in CF). *Source: _cr10190 - 1.1 billion, financed by AfDB. The project focuses on strength (PDF).* ### ANNEX 3 ### ANNEX 3 ### Core Strategy 1. Stabilize the economy and lay the groundwork for strong and equitable growth - Total Core Strategy 1 financing: 20,731 CF millions - Annual financing (2010–2014): - 2010: 4,206 - 2011: 6,058 - 2012: 6,058 - 2013: 3,314 - 2014: 0 - 2010-2014 total: 19,637 - Key programs and financing: - Support fiscal reform: 1,103 CF millions — AfDB: 735 (period covered: 735) - International trade reform and facilitation of domestic trade: Capacity building, research: 491 CF millions — UNDP/EDIC: 98 (2010: 98; 2011: 98; 2012: 98; 2010-2014: 295) - Improve the energy supply at a low cost, access to drinking water and sanitation: Institutional support for the drinking water sector; research; works: 5,880 CF millions — AfDB: 58 (2010: 58; 2011: 2,646; 2010-2014: 5,350) - Improve basic economic infrastructure and communication services: Support for the development of transportation infrastructure: 13,257 CF millions — 10th EDF: 3,314 (2010: 3,314; 2011: 3,314; 2012: 3,314; 2013: 3,314; 2010-2014: 13,257) ### Core Strategy 2. Strengthen key sectors by focusing on institution building and ensuring a broader role for the private sector - Total Core Strategy 2 financing: 10,192 CF millions - Annual financing (2010–2014): - 2010: 3,059 - 2011: 2,568 - 2012: 1,449 - 2013: 191 - 2014: 0 - 2010-2014 total: 7,266 - Key programs and financing: - Private microfinance sector — PAFIC: Inclusive finance support program for the Comoros: 982 CF millions — UNEF/UNDP: 327 (2010: 327; 2011: 327; 2012: 164; 2010-2014: 818) - Economic revitalization component focusing on young people (FCP): 1,964 CF millions — UNDP: 982 (2010: 982; 2011: 491; 2010-2014: 1,473) - Agriculture and stockbreeding — PREDIVAC: 1,841 CF millions — AFD: 368 (2010: 368; 2011: 368; 2010-2014: 737) - Strengthen property security — PNDHD: National program for sustainable human development: 1,905 CF millions — IFAD: 381 (2010: 381; 2011: 381; 2012: 286; 2013: 191; 2010-2014: 1,238) - Fishing — Capacity building for fishing: 3,500 CF millions — State loan – Eximbank: 1,000 (2010: 1,000; 2011: 1,000; 2012: 1,000; 2010-2014: 3,000) - Other sector lines (items 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9): listed with 0 financing in the table ### Core Strategy 3. Strengthen governance and social cohesion - Total Core Strategy 3 financing: 8,379 CF millions - Annual financing (2010–2014): - 2010: 3,295 - 2011: 2,823 - 2012: 795 - 2013: 663 - 2014: 0 - 2010-2014 total: 7,575 - Key programs and financing: - Enhance the legal framework, promote anticorruption measures and strengthen transparency and management of public affairs — Good governance in public affairs: 3,314 CF millions — 10th EDF: 762 (2010: 762; 2011: 762; 2012: 795; 2013: 663; 2010-2014: 2,983) - Capacity building in planning; institutional support for budget, treasury, debt, and statistics; private sector organizations; Governance and social cohesion (FCP): Inter-Comorian dialog and national reconciliation: 2,757 CF millions — AfDB/UNDP: AfDB 1,378; UNDP 246; UNDP 123; totals reflected as 2,481 (2010-2014 entries include 221) - Capacity building for the judicial institution — Governance and social cohesion (FCP): justice reforms and promotion of human rights: 344 CF millions — UNDP: 172 (2010: 172; 2011: 172; 2010-2014: 344) - Fight against terrorism, transnational crime, and strengthening of civil security — Security and stability (FCP): 1,719 CF millions — UNDP: 859 (2010: 859; 2011: 687; 2010-2014: 1,547) ### Core Strategy 4. Improve the health status of the general public - Total Core Strategy 4 financing: 10,213 CF millions - Annual financing (2010–2014): - 2010: 2,897 - 2011: 2,062 - 2012: 2,062 - 2013: 2,504 - 2014: 687 - 2010-2014 total: 10,213 - Key programs and financing: - Fight malaria and priority diseases — Program to fight malaria (World Fund): 5,303 CF millions — WF: 1,768 (2010: 1,768; 2011: 589; 2012: 589; 2013: 1,669; 2014: 687; 2010-2014: 5,303) - Enhance efficacy and efficiency of all aspects of the health system — PASCO: Program to support the health sector in the Comoros: 4,910 CF millions — AFD: 1,129 (2010: 1,129; 2011: 1,473; 2012: 1,473; 2013: 835; 2010-2014: 4,910) - Other health items (Develop comprehensive sexual and reproductive health services; Fight against HIV/AIDS and sexually transmissible infections; Improve hygiene and sanitation in the hospital environment): listed with 0 financing in the table ### Core Strategy 5. Promote education and vocational training with the aim of developing human capital - Total Core Strategy 5 financing: 9,594 CF millions - Annual financing (2010–2014): - 2010: 1,306 - 2011: 1,728 - 2012: 795 - 2013: 878 - 2014: 1,887 - 2010-2014 total: 6,593 - Key programs and financing: - Develop education, technical instruction, and occupational training to reflect market requirements: 6,500 CF millions (2010: 458; 2011: 732; 2012: 773; 2013: 878; 2014: 1,856; 2010-2014: 4,696) - Enhance access to quality basic (preschool and elementary) and secondary education: 2,300 CF millions (2010-2014 entries: 2010: 538; 2011: 690; 2012: 5; 2013: 0; 2014: 31; 2010-2014: 1,263) - Develop competent human resources and the sectoral (SWAP) approach in education: 57 CF millions (2010: 17; 2011: 12; 2012: 17; 2010-2014: 45) - Promote literacy, sports, and cultural activities — Social Development Fund: Development of sports activities, integration of young people, support for village communities, and local dynamics: 737 CF millions — France: 295 (2010: 295; 2011: 295; 2010-2014: 589) ### Core Strategy 6. Promote a healthy environment and ensure sustainable development - Total Core Strategy 6 financing (table entries show discrepancy): - Line item: Capacity building in managing the risks of natural and climate disasters in the Union of the Comoros: 362 CF millions — UNDP: 163 (2010: 163; 2011: 36; 2010-2014: 199) - Table row labeled "Total Core Strategy 6" shows: 262 (followed by annual and subtotal entries of 163, 36, 0, 0, 0, 199) — note both the project line and the total row are included in the table ### Aggregate totals - Total available (table bottom line): 60,156 CF millions - Annual totals (2010–2014): - 2010: 14,932 - 2011: 15,583 - 2012: 11,468 - 2013: 7,550 - 2014: 2,574 - 2010-2014 total: 52,106 *Annex 3 — _cr10190* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2010/_cr10190.pdf_