## _cr1084

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---

### Macroeconomic developments — background and outlook
- Economy has bottomed out and is set to recover strongly in 2010, driven mainly by investment in the Oyu Tolgoi mine projected to amount to nearly 20 percent of GDP in 2010.
- Copper prices have been strong and are projected to remain strong.
- Severe winter increased hardship for herdsmen and drove up meat prices; inflation could reach 8 percent by year-end.
- All end-December performance criteria have been met and the indicative limit on the fiscal deficit was met with a comfortable margin.
- Fiscal responsibility law submitted to parliament on January 12 (an end-December structural benchmark); social transfer law submitted in January but passage delayed by parliamentary recess (originally a December 1, 2009 structural benchmark); authorities aim to secure passage in the spring session.

### Fiscal policy — stance, measures, and structural reforms
- 2009 fiscal outturn: fiscal deficit was 1 percent of GDP less than projected, driven largely by spending restraint.
- 2010 outlook: similar fiscal overperformance likely due to improved copper price outlook; authorities committed to saving any revenue overperformance or, if necessary, lowering spending to offset revenue shortfalls to meet program deficit target.
- 2011 challenge: fiscal adjustment on the order of 5 percent of GDP needed to offset revenue loss from planned elimination of a distortionary mining tax.
- 2010 budget measure: increase in universal transfers via creation of the Human Development Fund with earmarked mineral revenues will further reduce fiscal flexibility.
- Authorities exploring measures to improve public finances and efficiency:
  - strengthen tax administration of the largest taxpayers;
  - modernize the mineral taxation regime;
  - potential options include partly reversing previous cuts in the VAT and social security contribution rates and reducing untargeted transfers (no decision yet).
- Structural reforms and timing:
  - Fiscal responsibility and social transfer laws submitted to parliament; intent to pass both during the spring session (June 15 structural benchmarks).
  - Social transfer reform: phase-in a targeted poverty benefit which when fully operational could cost around 1 percent of GDP per year; World Bank and Asian Development Bank assisting with means-testing capacity; targeted benefit to prioritize transfers to the very poorest.
  - Fiscal responsibility law: passage will help entrench fiscal discipline and reduce procyclicality; strictly adhering to law’s provisions in the 2011 budget is critical.

### Key fiscal statistics (in percent of nonmineral GDP) — selected series (2006–2014)
- Overall balance (in percent of GDP): 8.2, 2.8, -4.9, -5.4, -4.0, -4.5, -2.3, -1.3, 2.0.
- Structural balance (in percent of GDP) 1/: 4.8, -2.2, -6.9, -3.4, -4.2, -5.0, -3.1, -1.9, 1.9.
- Nonmineral balance: -3.2, -14.9, -19.4, -16.5, -15.6, -9.4, -7.1, -11.4, -10.9.
- Nonmineral revenue: 37.3, 38.7, 33.2, 32.7, 33.7, 34.7, 34.8, 34.8, 34.7.
- Total expenditure: 40.5, 53.6, 52.6, 49.2, 49.3, 44.0, 41.9, 46.3, 45.6.
- Fiscal effort (change in cyclically adjusted) 2/: -1.0, -12.7, -6.6, 7.0, -0.7, 5.4, 2.4, -3.6, 0.5.
- Real expenditure growth: 25.8, 48.5, 9.6, -9.0, 8.1, -4.4, 1.0, 15.8, 4.4.
- Memorandum items:
  - Real nonmineral GDP (growth in percent): 9.2, 12.2, 11.9, -2.8, 7.9, 7.1, 6.1, 4.9, 6.1.
  - Output gap of nonmineral GDP: -2.0, 0.3, 4.3, -3.7, -0.6, 1.2, 1.0, -0.8, -0.6.
- Sources noted: Mongolian authorities; and IMF staff calculations.
- Notes: 1/ Staff estimate of the structural balance as defined in the current draft of the Fiscal Responsibility Law. 2/ In percent of potential nonmineral GDP. The elasticity assumptions are 1 for revenue and 0 for spending.

### Monetary and exchange rate policies
- Monetary policy:
  - Authorities recognize monetary policy lags of 6–12 months; central bank will need to be forward-looking and proactive in tackling signs of rising inflation.
  - Monetary policy moved to a neutral bias and it is likely interest rates will need to be increased during the course of the year.
  - Authorities share staff concerns on inflation risks and are watching for signs of broader inflationary dynamics from meat price increases.
- Exchange rate policy:
  - Flexible exchange rate regime working well; authorities committed to allowing exchange rate to move with market conditions.
  - Central bank intervened sparingly and intends to limit intervention to smoothing excess volatility and opportunistically building reserves.
  - Screen-based system for interbank foreign exchange transactions being piloted and expected to be rolled out by the second quarter.
- Consultation trigger:
  - Will consult with Fund staff if, during any 28 day period, net sales in the foreign exchange auctions exceed US$30 million.

### Banking system — restructuring, supervision, and legal framework
- Bank restructuring strategy (principles):
  - existing owners must bear losses before receiving public money;
  - uniform treatment for all banks and credible commitment to actions up to government intervention;
  - make public money sufficiently unattractive to incentivize private recapitalization;
  - budget, not the central bank, should bear restructuring costs.
- Bank-by-bank actions:
  - System-wide nonperforming loan and capital adequacy ratios have improved, but significant variation across banks persists.
  - Government will categorize banks into: unviable nonsystemic banks to be intervened; unviable but systemic banks to be nationalized; undercapitalized banks to submit restructuring plans with timetables for meeting regulatory capital standards.
  - Decision on approving a pending merger between two weak, mid-sized banks should be delayed until comprehensive strategy and clear financial information available.
- Supervision enhancements and legal changes:
  - Strengthen supervision and formulate time-bound plans to unwind existing forbearance (single-borrower limits, connected party loans, provisioning).
  - Improve loan classification for restructured loans and strengthen monitoring of banks offering deposit rates well above market.
  - New banking law passed January 2010 introduces consolidated supervision, strengthens fit-and-proper tests, defines connected parties more clearly, and improves the resolution framework.
  - Legal protections for bank supervisors remain insufficient and should be redressed.
- Audit and timing:
  - External audits started at several banks; complete ten audits by end-March.
  - Comprehensive bank restructuring plan to be submitted to Parliament in early April.

### Other policy and external issues
- External financing:
  - Authorities cleared bilateral official arrears to Russia and signed a rescheduling agreement with Finland.
  - Agreed to be cautious with new nonconcessional external borrowing and plan to keep prohibition on government guarantees in place.
- Safeguards and audit:
  - External auditors given access to central bank vaults to pave way for completion of the 2009 audit; authorities intend to have the audit finalized by end-April and share it with staff.

### Balance of payments and external sector — selected figures (exact strings preserved)
- Current account balance (including official transfers): -722-235-566-1,302-167-772-1,176.
  - (In percent of GDP): -14.0-5.6-11.0-21.0-3.8-16.1-21.2.
- Trade balance: -613-158-456-1,341-91-841-1,401.
- Exports: 2,5341,9022,2332,4311,8331,9952,183.
- Imports: -3,147-2,060-2,689-3,772-1,924-2,836-3,584.
- Foreign direct investment: 836426422849305609768.
- Gross official international reserves (end-period): 6581,3271,4921,6461,0501,2521,368.
  - (In months of next year's imports of goods and services): 3.04.94.04.43.93.84.2.
- Memoranda:
  - Copper price (US$ per ton): 6,9635,1006,5007,0005,0005,8006,000.
  - Oyu Tolgoi-related imports highlighted series: -190-143-576-1,326-143-791-1,326.
  - Copper concentrate: 836502667749600667734.
  - Gold: 600336353365381382398.
  - Other exports: 1,0991,0641,2131,3178529461,050.

### Key macroeconomic and fiscal indicators — selected exact figures and series (preserved)
- Nominal GDP (2008): US$5,243 million 1/.
- Population, end-year (2008): 2.68 million.
- Per capita GDP (2008): US$1,972 2/.
- Poverty incidence (2007/08): 35.2 percent 3/.
- Quota: SDR 51.1 million.
- Real sector (row excerpt): Real GDP growth8.9-1.67.37.1-1.08.66.5.
- Consumer prices (period average): 26.86.37.15.56.34.96.0.
- Consumer prices (end-period): 23.21.97.55.52.06.06.0.
- GDP deflator: 20.22.211.24.27.56.05.6.
- Gross national savings (in percent of GDP): 29.634.036.539.934.333.735.5.
- Gross national investment (in percent of GDP): 40.336.844.758.435.147.154.2.
- General government (selected lines):
  - Revenue and grants36.132.934.530.630.733.029.5.
  - Expenditure and net lending41.038.338.535.037.238.032.2.
  - Current balance6.52.92.82.71.42.34.5.
  - Primary balance-4.6-4.9-2.7-3.2-6.0-3.6-1.2.
  - Overall balance (including grants)-4.9-5.4-4.0-4.5-6.5-5.0-2.7.
  - Nonmineral overall balance-15.1-12.9-12.2-7.5-12.7-12.2-5.2.
- Money and credit (selected lines):
  - Broad money-5.126.919.917.220.025.418.3.
  - Net foreign assets (contribution to BM growth)-27.843.01.06.028.76.41.1.
  - Net domestic assets (contribution to BM growth)22.7-16.118.911.1-8.618.917.2.
  - Claims on non-banks, adjusted for bank restructuringn.a.1.213.813.32.97.5...
- Balance of payments (selected lines):
  - Current account balance (including official transfers) -722-235-566-1,302-167-772-1,176.
  - Exports2,5341,9022,2332,4311,8331,9952,183.
  - Imports-3,147-2,060-2,689-3,772-1,924-2,836-3,584.
  - Gross official international reserves (end-period)6581,3271,4921,6461,0501,2521,368.
- Public and publicly guaranteed debt (selected lines):
  - Total public debt 33.853.466.270.851.670.869.0.
  - Domestic debt 5/0.06.322.730.46.326.632.7.
  - External debt 6/33.747.143.540.445.344.236.3.
    - (In millions of US$) 1,6021,9772,1762,2521,9372,0822,120.
- Exchange rate and nominal GDP:
  - Togrogs per US$ (end-period)  1,2681,443...............
  - Togrogs per US$ (period average) 1,1691,441...............
  - Nominal GDP (In billions of togrogs)6,0206,0567,2218,0556,4077,3738,291.

### Fund engagement, program reviews, and financing schedule (exact strings)
- Stand-By Arrangement purchase schedule (Table 6 excerpt):
  - April 1, 2009: 100% of quota / SDR 51,100,000 — Approved Stand-by Arrangement.
  - June 23, 2009: 50% / 25,550,000 — Completion of the first review and observance of end-April 2009 performance criteria.
  - September 21, 2009: 30% / 15,330,000 — Completion of the second review and observance of end-June 2009 performance criteria.
  - December 22, 2009: 30% / 15,330,000 — Completion of the third review and observance of end-September 2009 performance criteria.
  - March 19, 2010: 30% / 15,330,000 — Completion of the fourth review and observance of end-December 2009 performance criteria.
  - June 15, 2010: 30% / 15,330,000 — Completion of the fifth review and observance of end-March 2010 performance criteria.
  - September 15, 2010: 30% / 15,330,000 — Completion of the sixth review and observance of end-June 2010 performance criteria.
  - Total300153,300,000.

### Program performance, authorities’ commitments, and conditionality
- Authorities’ performance under the program described as exemplary; staff recommends completion of the fourth review.
- Request: completion of the fourth review and observance of end-December 2009 performance criteria; fifth review scheduled on or after June 15, 2010 and sixth review on or after September 15, 2010.
- Government intentions and commitments (Letter of Intent, February 24, 2010):
  - Macroeconomic policy achievements to date: stabilized market conditions, boosted international reserves, and lowered inflation.
  - Outlook: favorable, with growth boosted by Oyu Tolgoi investment.
  - Policy priorities for remainder of 2010:
    - Strengthen the banking system.
    - Improve public finances.
    - Maintain a flexible exchange rate.
    - Alleviate poverty.
  - Undertakings:
    - Press ahead with key reforms described in the attached Memorandum of Economic Policies (MEP).
    - Maintain close policy dialogue with the Fund and consult before modifying measures contained in the letter or adopting new measures.
    - Continue to provide necessary information for program monitoring and authorize IMF publication of the letter and the attached MEP.
  - Signatories: S. Bayartsogt (Minister of Finance) and L. Purevdorj (Governor of Bank of Mongolia).

### Policy recommendations (staff appraisal and consolidated actions)
- Fiscal:
  - Achieve sizeable fiscal adjustment needed in 2011 through structural measures that strengthen public finances and protect the poor:
    - reduce universal transfers while introducing a targeted poverty benefit;
    - strengthen tax administration of largest taxpayers;
    - unwind reductions in VAT and social security contributions where appropriate.
  - Passage of fiscal responsibility and social transfer laws is critical.
- Exchange rate:
  - Maintain flexible exchange rate to facilitate adjustment to mining sector expansion and allow real appreciation pressures to feed through the nominal exchange rate rather than inflation.
- Monetary:
  - Maintain neutral bias and tighten if inflation pressures continue; build public consensus on central bank focus on fighting inflation to facilitate movement toward inflation targeting and guard against political pressures to lower interest rates.
- Banking system:
  - Proceed expeditiously with bank restructuring; be willing to take enforcement actions when necessary (intervening, changing management, or limiting operations); strengthen supervision and unwind forbearance.
- Other:
  - Be cautious with new nonconcessional external borrowing and keep prohibition on government guarantees in place.

### Risks
- Main remaining risks:
  - Need to secure parliamentary passage of key structural reforms (fiscal responsibility law and social transfer reform).
  - Need to move ahead with bank restructuring.
  - Both require significant political commitment.
- Authorities are committed to securing parliamentary passage of the fiscal responsibility and social transfer laws during the spring session.

*Source: IMF staff report section "1. Macroeconomic Developments."*

### 1. Macroeconomic Developments ..........................................................................................

### 1. Macroeconomic Developments

### Background
- The economy has bottomed out and is set to recover strongly in 2010.  
- Main driver of the recovery: investment in the Oyu Tolgoi mine, projected to amount to nearly 20 percent of GDP in 2010.  
- Copper prices have been strong.  
- Severe winter creating hardship for herdsmen and driving up meat prices; inflation could reach 8 percent by year-end.  
- All end-December performance criteria have been met and the indicative limit on the fiscal deficit was met with a comfortable margin.  
- The fiscal responsibility law was submitted to parliament on January 12 (an end-December structural benchmark).  
- The social transfer law was submitted to parliament in January, but passage will be delayed because parliament began its winter recess before discussing the law (December 1, 2009 structural benchmark). Authorities aim to secure passage in the spring session.

### Fiscal policy
- 2009 fiscal outturn: the fiscal deficit was 1 percent of GDP less than projected, driven largely by spending restraint.  
- Outlook: similar fiscal overperformance likely for 2010 due to improved copper price outlook. Authorities committed to saving any revenue overperformance or, if necessary, lowering spending to offset revenue shortfalls to meet program deficit target.  
- 2011 budget challenge: fiscal adjustment on the order of 5 percent of GDP will be needed to offset revenue loss from the planned elimination of a distortionary mining tax.  
- The increase in universal transfers adopted as part of the 2010 budget (creation of the Human Development Fund with earmarked mineral revenues) will further reduce fiscal flexibility.  
- Authorities exploring high-quality measures to achieve durable improvement in public finances while enhancing economic efficiency: strengthen tax administration of the largest taxpayers; modernize the mineral taxation regime; potential options include partly reversing previous cuts in the VAT and social security contribution rates and reducing untargeted transfers. No decision yet among options.  
- Structural reform: authorities submitted the fiscal responsibility and social transfer laws to parliament and intend to pass both during the upcoming spring session (June 15 structural benchmarks).  
- Social transfer reform: would phase-in a targeted poverty benefit, which when fully operational could cost around 1 percent of GDP per year. World Bank and Asian Development Bank assisting with means-testing capacity. Targeted benefit to prioritize transfers to the very poorest.  
- Fiscal responsibility law: passage will help entrench fiscal discipline and reduce procyclicality; strictly adhering to the law’s provisions in the 2011 budget is critical for building credibility. Complementary organic budget law may take more time due to complex fiscal federalism issues.

### Key fiscal statistics (in percent of nonmineral GDP) — Mongolia: Fiscal Indicators (2006–2014)
- Overall balance (in percent of GDP): 8.2, 2.8, -4.9, -5.4, -4.0, -4.5, -2.3, -1.3, 2.0 (years 2006–2014).  
- Structural balance (in percent of GDP) 1/: 4.8, -2.2, -6.9, -3.4, -4.2, -5.0, -3.1, -1.9, 1.9.  
- Nonmineral balance: -3.2, -14.9, -19.4, -16.5, -15.6, -9.4, -7.1, -11.4, -10.9.  
- Nonmineral revenue: 37.3, 38.7, 33.2, 32.7, 33.7, 34.7, 34.8, 34.8, 34.7.  
- Total expenditure: 40.5, 53.6, 52.6, 49.2, 49.3, 44.0, 41.9, 46.3, 45.6.  
- Fiscal effort (change in cyclically adjusted) 2/: -1.0, -12.7, -6.6, 7.0, -0.7, 5.4, 2.4, -3.6, 0.5.  
- Real expenditure growth: 25.8, 48.5, 9.6, -9.0, 8.1, -4.4, 1.0, 15.8, 4.4.  
- Memorandum items: Real nonmineral GDP (growth in percent): 9.2, 12.2, 11.9, -2.8, 7.9, 7.1, 6.1, 4.9, 6.1.  
- Output gap of nonmineral GDP: -2.0, 0.3, 4.3, -3.7, -0.6, 1.2, 1.0, -0.8, -0.6.  
- Sources: Mongolian authorities; and IMF staff calculations.  
- 1/ Staff estimate of the structural balance as defined in the current draft of the Fiscal Responsibility Law.  
- 2/ In percent of potential nonmineral GDP. The elasticity assumptions are 1 for revenue and 0 for spending.  
- (Table labeled “Projected” for later years.)

### Monetary and exchange rate policies
- Monetary policy: authorities recognize monetary policy lags of 6–12 months; central bank will need to be forward-looking and proactive in tackling signs of rising inflation. Monetary policy has moved to a neutral bias and it is likely interest rates will need to be increased during the course of the year. Authorities share staff concerns on inflation risks and are watching for signs of broader inflationary dynamics from meat price increases.  
- Exchange rate policy: flexible exchange rate regime is working well; authorities committed to allowing exchange rate to move with market conditions. Central bank has intervened sparingly and intends to continue limiting intervention to smoothing excess volatility and opportunistically building reserves. Screen-based system for interbank foreign exchange transactions is being piloted and expected to be rolled out by the second quarter.

### Banking system
- Bank restructuring strategy: authorities, with MCM and World Bank technical assistance, are preparing a comprehensive bank restructuring plan to be submitted to parliament in early April. Main principles: (i) existing owners must bear losses before receiving public money; (ii) uniform treatment for all banks and credible commitment to actions up to government intervention; (iii) make public money sufficiently unattractive to incentivize private recapitalization; (iv) the budget, not the central bank, should bear restructuring costs. Upfront recapitalization costs may be high, though some recovery of government investment is expected over time. Cost of delay or inaction would be greater.  
- Bank-by-bank plans: system-wide nonperforming loan and capital adequacy ratios have improved, but significant variation across banks persists. Government will categorize banks into: unviable nonsystemic banks to be intervened; unviable but systemic banks to be nationalized; undercapitalized banks to submit restructuring plans with timetables for meeting regulatory capital standards. Decision on approving a pending merger between two weak, mid-sized banks should be delayed until comprehensive strategy and clear financial information are available.  
- Supervision: strengthening supervision is critical. Central bank will formulate time-bound plans to unwind existing forbearance (single-borrower limits, connected party loans, provisioning). Central bank will improve loan classification for restructured loans and strengthen monitoring of banks offering deposit rates well above market. New banking law passed January 2010 introduces consolidated supervision, strengthens fit-and-proper tests, defines connected parties more clearly, and improves the resolution framework. Legal protections for bank supervisors remain insufficient and should be redressed.

### Other policy and external issues
- External financing: authorities cleared bilateral official arrears to Russia and signed a rescheduling agreement with Finland. Authorities agreed to be cautious with new nonconcessional external borrowing and plan to keep prohibition on government guarantees in place.  
- Safeguard assessment: external auditors were given access to central bank vaults to pave the way for completion of the 2009 audit. Authorities intend to have the audit finalized by end-April and share it with staff.

### Staff appraisal and recommendations
- Overview: macro outlook encouraging; turnaround due to strong policy implementation, international financial support, and recovery in copper prices. Progress on structural reforms: passage of new banking law and submission of two key fiscal laws; social transfer reform passage delayed by parliamentary recess. Quantitative targets recalibrated: net international reserve floors raised to partly lock-in recent overperformance; net domestic asset targets adjusted to exclude foreign currency time deposits from reserve money per MCM advice; fiscal targets realigned with seasonal spending pattern in approved budget.  
- Fiscal policy recommendation: achieve sizeable fiscal adjustment needed in 2011 through structural measures that strengthen public finances and protect the poor—reduce universal transfers while introducing a targeted poverty benefit, strengthen tax administration of largest taxpayers, and unwind reductions in VAT and social security contributions. Passage of fiscal responsibility and social transfer laws is critical.  
- Exchange rate recommendation: maintain flexible exchange rate to facilitate adjustment to mining sector expansion and allow real appreciation pressures to feed through the nominal exchange rate rather than inflation.  
- Monetary recommendation: maintain neutral bias and tighten if inflation pressures continue; build public consensus on central bank focus on fighting inflation to facilitate eventual movement toward inflation targeting and guard against political pressures to lower interest rates.  
- Banking system recommendation: proceed expeditiously with bank restructuring; be willing to take enforcement actions when necessary (intervening, changing management, or limiting operations); strengthen supervision and unwind forbearance.

### Risks
- Main remaining risks: need to secure parliamentary passage of key structural reforms (fiscal responsibility law and social transfer reform) and to move ahead with bank restructuring. Both require significant political commitment. Authorities are committed to securing parliamentary passage of the fiscal responsibility and social transfer laws during the spring session.

*Source: IMF staff report section "1. Macroeconomic Developments."*

### 19.      The authorities’ performance under the program has been exemplary and staff

### _cr1084 - 19.      The authorities’ performance under the program has been exemplary and staff recommends completion of the fourth review.

### Program performance and recommendation
- The authorities’ performance under the program has been exemplary and staff recommends completion of the fourth review.
- Request for completion of the fourth review: completion of the fourth review and observance of end-December 2009 performance criteria is requested; the fifth review is scheduled on or after June 15, 2010 and the sixth review on or after September 15, 2010.

### Macroeconomic developments — main messages and outlook
- Main Message: The economy has bottomed out and is set to rebound strongly in 2010.
- Real GDP growth: "Real GDP growth is bottoming out and is expected to recover strongly this year, spurred by Oyu Tolgoi related investment."
- Copper prices: "Copper prices have recovered and are projected to remain strong."
- Inflation: "Inflation, which had fallen rapidly, is expected to rise to around 8 percent, driven in part by higher meat prices."
- Exchange rate: "Real exchange rate appreciation has been largely unwound by the togrog depreciation and low inflation."
- Banking and demand indicators:
  - "Bank lending to the private sector is recovering...  ...as are imports, underscoring the recovery in demand."
  - Net New Lending, Constant Dec-09 Prices (Change in claims on nonbanks, deflated by CPI) and Imports (seasonally adjusted trend components) show recovery trends (figures presented in source charts).

### Policy developments — main messages and actions
- Main Message: The economy stabilized quickly thanks to the authorities’ strong policy implementation.
- Monetary policy: "As market conditions stabilized, the central bank appropriately began to unwind the earlier hike in interest rates."
  - CBBs outstanding and 7-day/84-day CBBs rates illustrated in source charts.
  - Bank and Auction Rates (Tog/US$) series shown (sell avg., buy avg., average rate).
- Reserves and money:
  - "International reserves have been rebuilt."
  - "Broad money growth is recovering as the economy remonetizes and confidence returns."
  - Deposits: "Deposits starting to come back to the banking system and holding up despite risks in the banking system."
  - Banks building excess reserves rather than lending while strengthening balance sheets.
  - Excess Reserves series and Commercial Banks: Deposits (Foreign currency / Domestic currency) shown in source charts.

### Key macroeconomic and fiscal indicators (selected exact figures from tables)
- Nominal GDP (2008): US$5,243 million 1/
- Population, end-year (2008): 2.68 million
- Per capita GDP (2008): US$1,972 2/
- Poverty incidence (2007/08): 35.2 percent 3/
- Quota: SDR 51.1 million

Selected table excerpts (preserve exact numeric strings as in source):
- Real sector (row excerpt): Real GDP growth8.9-1.67.37.1-1.08.66.5
- Mineral-2.93.74.77.10.36.06.6
- Nonmineral11.9-2.87.97.1-1.29.26.4
- Consumer prices (period average)26.86.37.15.56.34.96.0
- Consumer prices (end-period)23.21.97.55.52.06.06.0
- GDP deflator20.22.211.24.27.56.05.6
- Gross national savings (in percent of GDP)29.634.036.539.934.333.735.5
- Gross national investment (in percent of GDP)40.336.844.758.435.147.154.2

General government (selected lines):
- Revenue and grants36.132.934.530.630.733.029.5
- Expenditure and net lending41.038.338.535.037.238.032.2
- Current balance6.52.92.82.71.42.34.5
- Primary balance-4.6-4.9-2.7-3.2-6.0-3.6-1.2
- Overall balance (including grants)-4.9-5.4-4.0-4.5-6.5-5.0-2.7
- Nonmineral overall balance-15.1-12.9-12.2-7.5-12.7-12.2-5.2

Money and credit (selected lines):
- Broad money-5.126.919.917.220.025.418.3
- Net foreign assets (contribution to BM growth)-27.843.01.06.028.76.41.1
- Net domestic assets (contribution to BM growth)22.7-16.118.911.1-8.618.917.2
- Claims on non-banks, adjusted for bank restructuringn.a.1.213.813.32.97.5...

Balance of payments (selected lines):
- Current account balance (including official transfers) -722-235-566-1,302-167-772-1,176
  - (In percent of GDP)-14.0-5.6-11.0-21.0-3.8-16.1-21.2
- Trade balance-613-158-456-1,341-91-841-1,401
- Exports2,5341,9022,2332,4311,8331,9952,183
- Imports-3,147-2,060-2,689-3,772-1,924-2,836-3,584
- Foreign direct investment836426422849305609768
- Gross official international reserves (end-period)6581,3271,4921,6461,0501,2521,368
  - (In months of next year's imports of goods and services)  3.04.94.04.43.93.84.2

Public and publicly guaranteed debt (selected lines):
- Total public debt 33.853.466.270.851.670.869.0
- Domestic debt 5/0.06.322.730.46.326.632.7
- External debt 6/33.747.143.540.445.344.236.3
  - (In millions of US$) 1,6021,9772,1762,2521,9372,0822,120

Exchange rate and nominal GDP:
- Togrogs per US$ (end-period)  1,2681,443...............
- Togrogs per US$ (period average) 1,1691,441...............
- Nominal GDP (In billions of togrogs)6,0206,0567,2218,0556,4077,3738,291

Memoranda:
- Copper price (US$ per ton)6,9635,1006,5007,0005,0005,8006,000

Notes and projections:
- Sources: Mongolian authorities; and IMF staff projections.
- Footnotes in source tables retained (e.g., 1/, 2/, 3/, etc.) with their attached text in source.

### Balance of payments and external sector (highlights)
- Current account balance (including official grants)-722-235-566-1,302-167-772-1,176
- Exports and imports series and subcomponents (Copper concentrate, Gold, Other) are detailed in source tables:
  - Copper concentrate836502667749600667734
  - Gold600336353365381382398
  - Other1,0991,0641,2131,3178529461,050
- Oyu Tolgoi-related imports highlighted: -190-143-576-1,326-143-791-1,326
- Capital and financial account: 5467456621,4464029071,296
- Gross official reserves (end-period)6581,3271,4921,6461,0501,2521,368
- Copper price (in US$ per ton)6,9635,1006,5007,0005,0005,5006,000
- Oil price (in US$ per barrel)97627682627780
- Gold price (in US$ per troy oz.)8729731,1361,150933955975

### Fund engagement, reviews, and financing
- Stand-By Arrangement timeline and purchase schedule (Table 6 excerpt):
  - April 1, 2009: 100% of quota / SDR 51,100,000 — Approved Stand-by Arrangement.
  - June 23, 2009: 50% / 25,550,000 — Completion of the first review and observance of end-April 2009 performance criteria.
  - September 21, 2009: 30% / 15,330,000 — Completion of the second review and observance of end-June 2009 performance criteria.
  - December 22, 2009: 30% / 15,330,000 — Completion of the third review and observance of end-September 2009 performance criteria.
  - March 19, 2010: 30% / 15,330,000 — Completion of the fourth review and observance of end-December 2009 performance criteria.
  - June 15, 2010: 30% / 15,330,000 — Completion of the fifth review and observance of end-March 2010 performance criteria.
  - September 15, 2010: 30% / 15,330,000 — Completion of the sixth review and observance of end-June 2010 performance criteria.
  - Total300153,300,000

### Government intentions and commitments (from Letter of Intent, February 24, 2010)
- Macroeconomic outcomes to date: "Our macroeconomic policies, supported by the Stand-By Arrangement with the International Monetary Fund, have successfully stabilized market conditions, boosted international reserves, and lowered inflation."
- Outlook: "The outlook for this year is favorable and growth, boosted by the investment in the Oyu Tolgoi mine, is expected to rebound."
- Policy priorities for remainder of 2010:
  - Strengthen the banking system.
  - Improve public finances.
  - Maintain a flexible exchange rate.
  - Alleviate poverty.
- Undertakings:
  - Press ahead with key reforms described in the attached Memorandum of Economic Policies (MEP).
  - Maintain close policy dialogue with the Fund and consult before modifying measures contained in the letter or adopting new measures.
  - Continue to provide necessary information for program monitoring and authorize IMF publication of the letter and the attached MEP.
- Signatories: S. Bayartsogt (Minister of Finance) and L. Purevdorj (Governor of Bank of Mongolia).

*Sources: Mongolian authorities; IMF staff estimates and projections as presented in the source document.*

### 1.      Growth and inflation. We expect the economy to rebound this year and to grow

### _cr1084 - 1.      Growth and inflation. We expect the economy to rebound this year and to grow

### Growth and inflation
- Growth projection: around 7 percent, spurred by investments accompanying the development of the Oyu Tolgoi mine.
- Inflation: was 4½ percent in January and is projected to pick up this year, due in part to rising meat prices, and stabilize at around 6 percent for 2011.

### Fiscal policy: stance and rules
- 2010 budget deficit commitment: limit to less than 5 percent of GDP; any revenue shortfall will be fully offset by a reduction in spending to ensure program deficit targets are achieved.
- Revenue upside treatment: if revenues exceed budget forecasts, additional revenues will be saved to help meet future financing needs and limit pro-cyclicality of spending.
- Fiscal Responsibility Law:
  - Passage date: will pass by June 15.
  - Objectives: enhance transparency, strengthen accountability, establish numerical rules limiting the fiscal balance, government debt, and spending growth.
  - Structural budget deficit limits: limit the structural budget deficit to 4 percent of GDP in 2011, falling to 2 percent of GDP by 2013.
- Fiscal measures to achieve adjustment:
  - Strengthen tax administration by significantly expanding the large taxpayer office and doubling the audit staff devoted to large taxpayers (by end-July).
  - Plan to modernize the mineral taxation regime to boost revenue and facilitate development of the mining sector.
  - An organic budget law complementary to the Fiscal Responsibility Law is under preparation and expected to be passed later this year.

### Social protection
- Social transfer reform law:
  - Submission status: submitted to parliament.
  - Passage date: will be passed by June 15.
  - Aim: better assist Mongolia’s most vulnerable citizens by increasing benefits to low income households; phase-in implementation as capacity to carry-out effective means-testing is improved.
  - Donor coordination: continued work with the World Bank and Asian Development Bank on implementation.

### Monetary and exchange rate policies
- Exchange rate policy:
  - Commitment to a flexible exchange rate to provide a shock absorber against terms of trade volatility and to safeguard international reserves.
  - Intervention strategy goals: rebuild international reserves; allow the exchange rate to move with market conditions while smoothing excess volatility from temporary imbalances.
  - Consultation trigger: will consult with Fund staff on the appropriate policy response if, during any 28 day period, net sales in the foreign exchange auctions exceed US$30 million.
- Monetary policy:
  - Primary objective: achieving and maintaining low inflation and macroeconomic stability.
  - Recent stance: inflation decelerated sharply and turned negative last year, but has started to pick up; monetary policy has switched to a neutral stance.
  - The central bank will closely monitor the inflation outlook and the strength of the economic recovery to assess whether to adjust interest rates.

### Banking system reforms and supervision
- Banks: decisive actions to bolster confidence and ensure financial stability.
  - External audits: started at several banks; complete ten audits by end-March of this year.
  - Using audit results to develop plans ensuring all banks have strong capital bases and viable business plans.
  - Submit a comprehensive bank restructuring strategy to Parliament in early April.
  - Public funds: may be needed for restructuring; any injection of public funds will be tied to governance and structural reforms at the recipient bank (changes in management; ensuring transparent, fit, and proper owner/managers; improving risk management; strengthening lending practices).
- Supervision enhancements:
  - Revised Banking Law passed by Parliament reinforcing prudential requirements, more clearly defining connected parties, and strengthening the resolution framework.
  - Planned measures:
    - Improve loan classification system for restructured loans (clarify definition, tighten rules for upgrading, require monthly reporting).
    - Establish a separate unit within the central bank to handle on-site examination.
    - Strengthen monitoring and supervision of banks offering deposit rates above the market rate.
    - More strictly enforce prudential rules on single-borrower limits, connected party loans, and provisioning requirements.

### Other policies
- External financing: commitment to prudently manage any further nonconcessional borrowing within program ceilings and maintain the current prohibition on government guarantees.

### Quantitative performance criteria, indicative targets, and technical definitions (selected items)
- Consultation threshold for foreign exchange auction net sales: US$30 million over any 28 day period.
- Valuation and program exchange rates/prices:
  - Program exchange rate: Tog 1,443 per U.S. dollar.
  - SDR valuation: SDR 1 = US$1.56.
  - Monetary gold price for valuation: US$1,096 per ounce.
- Reserve and monetary definitions and adjustors:
  - Floor applies to net international reserves (NIR) of the Bank of Mongolia (BOM); NIR adjusted upward (downward) by support from bilateral and multilateral donors (excluding IMF) in excess (short) of the programmed level cumulative since April 2009; adjusted for disbursed nonconcessional borrowing in excess of program level (except swaps with China) and for Oyu Tolgoi tax prepayment loans disbursed in excess (short) of the programmed level.
  - Ceiling applies to net domestic assets (NDA) of the BOM; NDA adjusted downward (upward) by donor support in excess (short) of the programmed level and by nonconcessional debt disbursed in excess of the program level (except swaps with China); also adjusted for Oyu Tolgoi tax prepayment loans.
- Net domestic credit to the general government (NCG): ceiling applies to cumulative flows from the beginning of the year; adjustors include donor support and nonconcessional debt disbursements.
- Fiscal deficit:
  - An indicative ceiling target applies to the general government fiscal deficit measured cumulatively from the beginning of the year.
  - Fiscal deficit defined as total general government revenue and grants minus total general government expenditure and net lending; principal costs of bank restructuring approved by Parliament excluded from expenditure and net lending (corresponding interest payments are included).
- Domestic payment arrears:
  - Domestic arrears measured as government payables/liabilities overdue by more than 60 days.
  - If this stock is equal or smaller than Tog 3.5 billion, the program considers domestic arrear accumulation to be zero; any excess over Tog 3.5 billion is considered domestic arrear accumulation.
  - The program aims for zero domestic arrear accumulation under this definition.
- External debt ceilings:
  - Ceiling applies to contracting and guaranteeing by the public sector of nonresidents’ debt with original maturities of one year or more; applies to debt/commitments contracted or guaranteed for which value has not yet been received.
  - Swap arrangements with the People’s Bank of China: only amounts actually drawn count toward the ceiling; all such drawings are considered to have an original maturity of more than one year.
  - Secondary market transactions of Oyu Tolgoi tax prepayment loans with nonresidents are not considered external financing for the program.

### Structural benchmarks and deadlines (selected items)
- Revise relevant laws to require Erdenet to pay taxes in togrog — target 6/30/2009 — Completed on July 9.
- Announcement of a resolution plan for Anod bank based on external auditor diagnostics — target 6/30/2009 — Completed; Anod bank put into receivership on November 30, 2009.
- Comprehensive review of transfer programs and revision of relevant laws to streamline transfer programs and safeguard the social safety — target 6/30/2009 — Completed late June; reform plan approved by Cabinet-level Working Group.
- Submission to parliament of a revised banking law with strengthened prudential and resolution provisions — target 6/30/2009 — Completed on July 24.
- Pass a 2010 budget consistent with the IMF supported Stand-By Arrangement — target 12/1/2009 — Completed November 27.
- Submission to parliament of Fiscal Responsibility Law consistent with Fund technical assistance — target 12/31/2009 — Completed; submitted to Parliament on January 12.
- Passage of a comprehensive social transfer reform that saves money and protects the poor through better targeting — original target 12/1/2009 — Delayed; reset target: Passage of a comprehensive social transfer reform by 6/15/2010.
- Parliamentary passage of Fiscal Responsibility Law consistent with Fund technical assistance — target 6/15/2010.

*Source: IMF staff report content provided in the supplied PDF chapter.*

### 22.      The definition of debt, for the purposes of the program, is set out in Executive Board

### _cr1084 - 22.      The definition of debt, for the purposes of the program, is set out in Executive Board

### Definition of debt (program purpose)
- The definition of debt for program purposes is set out in Executive Board Decision No. 12274, Point 9, as revised on August 31, 2009 (Decision No. 14416-(09/91)) (see Annex I).
- Under point 9(a), “debt” is a current (not contingent) liability created under a contractual arrangement through the provision of value in the form of assets (including currency) or services, which requires the obligor to make one or more payments in assets (including currency) or services at some future point(s) to discharge principal and/or interest.
- Primary forms of debt identified:
  - (i) loans (including deposits, bonds, debentures, commercial loans, buyers’ credits, repurchase agreements, and official swap arrangements);
  - (ii) suppliers’ credits (deferral of payments after delivery of goods or services);
  - (iii) leases (debt equals the present value at lease inception of all lease payments expected during the agreement, excluding payments covering operation, repair or maintenance).
- Under point 9(b), arrears, penalties, and judicially awarded damages arising from failure to make payment under a contractual obligation that constitutes debt are debt. Failure to make payment on an obligation not considered debt under this definition (e.g., payment on delivery) will not give rise to debt.

### Exclusions from debt ceilings and short-term debt ceilings
- Excluded from the (general) ceiling are:
  - (i) the use of Fund resources;
  - (ii) lending from the World Bank Group, the Asian Development Bank, and the International Fund for Agricultural Development;
  - (iii) debts incurred to restructure, refinance, or prepay existing debts, to the extent such debt is incurred on more favorable terms than the existing debt;
  - (iv) concessional debts;
  - (vi) any togrog-denominated treasury bill and government bond holdings by nonresidents.
- Short-term external debt (section B) — ceiling applies to contracting and guaranteeing by the public sector of new nonconcessional borrowing with nonresidents with original maturities of less than one year; applies to debt and commitments contracted or guaranteed for which value has not yet been received.
- Excluded from the short-term debt ceiling:
  - (i) debts classified as international reserve liabilities of the BOM;
  - (ii) debts to restructure, refinance, or prepay existing debts;
  - (iii) togrog-denominated treasury bills, government bonds, and BOM bills held by nonresidents;
  - (iv) normal import financing (a financing arrangement for imports is “normal” when the credit is self-liquidating);
  - (v) amounts drawn under any swap arrangements with People’s Bank of China.

### Guarantees (program purpose)
- A guarantee of a debt arises from any explicit legal obligation of the public sector to service a loan in the event of nonpayment by the recipient (involving payments in cash or in kind), or indirectly through any other obligation of the public sector to finance partially or in full any shortfall incurred by the loan recipient.

### Concessional debt: quantitative definition and discounting
- A debt is concessional for program purposes if it includes a grant element of at least 35 percent.
- Grant element calculation:
  - Grant element = (nominal value − present value (PV)) / nominal value, expressed as a percentage of nominal value.
  - The PV of debt at contracting is calculated by discounting the future stream of payments of debt service due on the debt.
- Discount rates:
  - Currency-specific commercial interest reference rates (CIRRs) published by the OECD are used.
  - For debt with maturity of at least 15 years: the ten-year-average CIRR is used.
  - For debt with maturity of less than 15 years: the six-month average CIRR is used.
  - Margins for differing repayment periods, added to the averages as used by the OECD:
    - 0.75 percent for repayment periods of less than 15 years,
    - 1 percent for 15 to 19 years,
    - 1.15 percent for 20 to 29 years,
    - 1.25 percent for 30 years or more.
- Loans from private entities are not considered concessional unless accompanied by a grant or grant element provided by a foreign official entity, and both components constitute an integrated financing package with combined grant element ≥ 35 percent.

### External payment arrears (performance criterion)
- A continuous performance criterion applies to the nonaccumulation of external payments arrears on external debt contracted or guaranteed by the general government or the BOM.
- External payments arrears are external debt-service obligations (principal and interest) not paid when due as specified in contractual agreements.
- Overdue debt and debt service obligations that are in dispute will not be considered external payments arrears for program monitoring.

### Data provision commitments and reporting requirements
- Authorities committed to using the best available data so that subsequent data revisions will not lead to a breach of a performance criterion; all revisions will be promptly reported to the Fund’s Resident Representative. Likelihood of significant data changes will be communicated to Fund staff as soon as the risk becomes apparent.
- Data for monitoring performance (including performance criteria and indicative targets) to be provided electronically or in hard copy to the Fund’s Resident Representative by the 20th day of each month, unless otherwise indicated.
- Reporting responsibilities by agency and selected required data:
  - A. Monetary Data (BOM):
    - Monetary survey, BOM balance sheet, consolidated balance sheet of commercial banks: monthly; BOM balance sheet weekly within five working days of the end of the respective week.
    - Net international reserves and BOM foreign exchange market interventions on a daily basis.
    - Interest rates and volume on standing facilities and market operations weekly within five working days of week end.
    - Detailed breakdown of net credit to government from BOM and commercial banks.
    - Stock of monetary gold in both thousands of fine troy ounces and U.S. dollars; report monetary gold transactions, accounting rates, increases through domestic purchases and refining (prices and volumes), and any liabilities guaranteed or backed by gold.
    - Detailed breakdown of “other items net” for BOM and commercial banks, including valuation changes in net international reserves and net other foreign assets from exchange rate changes/revaluation of gold.
    - Outstanding balances of all deposit accounts of the general government in commercial banks, including extrabudgetary funds.
    - Outstanding balances of any new deposit accounts for grants and loans received from multilateral or bilateral donors, including associated counterpart funds.
    - Bank-by-bank list of required reserves and actual reserves.
    - Results of each central bank bills auction within five working days (amount offered, amount demanded, amount sold to each bank, announced rates, cut-off rates).
  - B. Fiscal Data (Ministry of Finance (MOF)):
    - Consolidated accounts of central, local, and general government: detailed tax, nontax, capital revenues; current and capital expenditures; net lending; financing separated into foreign (cash, project, program loans) and domestic (bank and nonbank).
    - Classified transactions of all social insurance funds.
    - Domestic payment arrears of the general government.
    - Noninterest outstanding payables by each subsector with detailed breakdown by major categories and remaining maturity.
    - Results of each treasury bills auction within five working days (amount offered, amount demanded, amount sold to each bank and nonbanks, average yield in percent per month).
  - C. External Sector Data (BOM and MOF):
    - Complete list of new contracts for public investment projects (signed or under negotiation) with foreign or domestic entities, including amounts, terms, and conditions of current or future debt or nondebt obligations from these contracts.
    - Outstanding stock, disbursements, amortization, and interest payments of short-term external debt contracted or guaranteed by government or BOM by creditor in original currency and U.S. dollars.
    - Outstanding, disbursements, amortization, and interest payments of medium- and long-term external debt contracted or guaranteed by government or BOM by creditor in original currency and U.S. dollars.
    - Daily midpoint exchange rates of the togrog against the U.S. dollar, including official, interbank, and parallel market exchange rates (BOM).
    - Arrears on external debt contracted or guaranteed by government or BOM by creditor in original currency and U.S. dollars.
  - D. Other Data (National Statistical Office (NSO)):
    - Monthly consumer price index and detailed breakdown by major categories of goods and services in the consumer basket.
    - NSO’s monthly statistical bulletin, including monthly export and import data.

### Program context, performance, and key macro figures (Press Release No. 10/99 and Authorities’ statement)
- IMF Executive Board completed the fourth review under an 18-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with Mongolia and approved disbursement equivalent to SDR 15.33 million (about US$23.4 million), bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 122.64 million (about US$187.4 million).
- The SBA was approved on April 1, 2009 for an amount equivalent to SDR 153.3 million (about US$234.3 million) or 300 percent of Mongolia’s quota.
- Authorities’ macroeconomic projections and outcomes stated:
  - Real growth projected at around 7.3 percent for the rebound year (after – 1.6 percent in 2009).
  - Inflation projected to rise around 7.1 percent by end-2010 and stabilize at around 5.5 percent for 2011.
  - Fiscal deficit in 2009 was –5.4 percent of GDP (below program target of –6.5 percent).
  - Authorities’ structural budget deficit targets under the planned fiscal responsibility law: 4 percent of GDP in 2011 and 2 percent by 2013.
- Policy priorities and recommendations highlighted by IMF and authorities:
  - Continue expenditure restraint and revenue measures to strengthen public finances.
  - Passage of comprehensive social transfer reform law with a targeted poverty benefit and passage of a fiscal responsibility law to institutionalize fiscal discipline.
  - Review monetary policy stance if inflationary pressures persist; maintain low and stable inflation to support poverty reduction and sustained growth.
  - Implement a comprehensive bank restructuring plan and strengthen bank supervision to ensure banks can support sustained growth in lending to the private sector.
  - Authorities plan to pursue tax administration strengthening, mineral taxation modernization, reduction of untargeted transfers, and seek technical assistance (TA) in tax policy and budget reform, including fiscal relations between central and local government.

*Excerpt and materials as provided in the source content unit.*

### 8.      At this moment, key objectives for monetary policy remain unchanged at maintaining

### _cr1084 - 8.      At this moment, key objectives for monetary policy remain unchanged at maintaining

### Monetary policy
- Key objectives remain: maintaining low inflation and contributing to macroeconomic stability.
- Authorities are vigilant about recently-evolving inflation risks, with focused monitoring of recent increases in meat prices.
- Authorities are committed to "investing sufficient caution" in assessing whether to adjust interest rate, balancing:
  - the strength of the economic recovery, and
  - the extent of inflation pressures.
- Toward the medium-term goal of an inflation targeting framework, the central bank will continue laying the technical foundation, including:
  - improving inflation forecasting, and
  - advancing monetary transmission channel.

### Exchange rate policy
- Authorities are strongly committed to a flexible exchange rate, acknowledging its advantage in relieving terms of trade volatility and preventing higher inflation mainly arising from OT mining income in 2013.
- Foreign exchange intervention policy:
  - Limited to smoothing excess volatility caused by temporary imbalances.
  - Greater focus on rebuilding international reserves and aligning the exchange rate with evolving market conditions.

### Banking system — findings and reform program
- The banking sector remains described as "the Achilles’ heel of the Mongolian economy" and requires continuous proactive and comprehensive efforts.
- Recent progress:
  - A new banking law was passed on January 2010 and is now in effect.
  - Authorities express eagerness to bolster banking system integrity and public confidence.
- Bank restructuring steps and timeline:
  - External audits of several banks initiated; ten audits to be completed by end-March 2010.
  - A comprehensive bank restructuring plan to be developed and submitted to Parliament no later than its April session.
    - The plan will include principles for the restructuring process, including use of public funds tied to recipient banks’ governance reform.
  - Bank-by-bank plans to be established using supervisory data and external audit findings.
  - Authorities will proactively respond to emerging problems in individual banks and work to strengthen system-wide stability and public confidence.
- Banking supervision:
  - The new banking law will serve as the main foundation for prudential requirements, consolidated supervision, and improved resolution framework.
  - The Bank of Mongolia and the Financial Regulation Committee are committed to redoubling efforts to strengthen financial supervision, as described in the attached Memorandum of Economic Policies.

### Other issues
- External financing:
  - Authorities will keep non-concessional debt within program ceiling through prudent management and will maintain the current prohibition on government guarantees.
- Official arrears:
  - Progress includes reaching a rescheduling agreement with Finland and paying off 18.0 million USD for Russian debt.

### Conclusion and policy direction
- Recent positive signs (strong policy implementation and copper price recovery) must not lead to complacency.
- Authorities will continue comprehensive reform policies, prioritizing passage of two pending important laws to entrench sound macroeconomic policies and create a more enabling environment for growth.
- Authorities express appreciation to the Fund and its staff for policy advice and to the Fund’s mission chief, Mr. Steven Barnett, and his team for their work and advice in developing Mongolia’s economic reform program.

*Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2010/_cr1084.pdf*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2010/_cr1084.pdf_