## _cr11353 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [_cr11353](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/_cr11353.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/_cr11353.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/_cr11353.pdf.json) --- ### Executive Summary — Progress and new challenges - Economic growth: - Average real growth rate averaged 3.1 percent between 2008 and 2009; 1.2 percent in 2006 and 2007; growth rate was 3.5 percent in 2010. - The 5-percent growth target set in the first PRSP was not met. - Sectoral drivers: - Agriculture growth of 6.3 percent in 2009, notably the cashew industry. - Export price of cashew nuts fell by almost 30 percent in 2009; export revenue offset by a considerable increase in export volumes. - Public finances: - Budget deficit averaged 10 percent of GDP between 2005 and 2007; reduced to 3.2 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent in 2009 through increased domestic revenue collection and expenditure control. - Civil service salaries accounted for over 75 percent of government revenue; civil servants’ salaries represented more than 75 percent of government revenue in fiscal action notes. - Infrastructure and PRSP I achievements: - Road building and repairs in Bissau; preliminary studies for 500 km of roadways linking Guinea-Bissau to Guinea-Conakry and Senegal; routine maintenance on 400 km of dirt roads. - Constraints: - Availability of financing, institutional instability, and limited institutional and human capacity to implement development projects on schedule. ### Macroeconomic performance and fiscal framework (selected figures and trends) - Macroeconomic indicators (2005–2009): - GDP growth rate (percent): 2005: 4.3; 2006: 1.8; 2007: 3.2; 2008: 3.2; 2009: 3.0 - Per capita GDP growth rate (percent): 2005: 0.3; 2006: -1.1; 2007: -0.3; 2008: 1.3; 2009: 0.8 - Inflation rate: 2005: 3.3; 2006: 2.2; 2007: 4.6; 2008: 10.4; 2009: -1.6 - Budget balance, including grants (percent of GDP): 2005: -11.9; 2006: -8.3; 2007: -10.9; 2008: -3.2; 2009: -2.9 - Balance of payments current account, including transfers (percent of GDP): 2005: -5.1; 2006: -10.2; 2007: -9.4; 2008: -2.8; 2009: 1.6 - Gross domestic saving (percent of GDP): 2005: 9.5; 2006: -0.3; 2007: 16.5; 2008: 8.9; 2009: 10.0 - Structural vulnerabilities: - Agriculture accounts for almost 60 percent of GDP (National Accounts – 2008/INE); cashew industry: over 90 percent of total exports and about 17 percent of government revenue. - Private sector: in 2009 there were no more than 75 registered firms. - Financial inclusion: access to banking and financial services restricted to 2-3 percent of the population. - World Bank Doing Business ranking (2010): 181st of 183 countries. - Public financial management reforms: - Biometric census of civil servants—identified 4,000 fictitious workers. - Adoption of WAEMU-harmonized budget nomenclature and introduction of SIGFIP. - Centralization of revenues at the Treasury via creation of a single account at the BCEAO. ### Human development and social indicators — status and trends - Human Development Index and ranking: - HDI: 0.289 (2010); ranking: 164th of 169. - Average annual HDI growth rate (2000–2010): 0.9 percent (sub-Saharan Africa: 2.1 percent; very low HDI countries: 1.68 percent). - Poverty and nonmonetary deprivation: - Incidence of absolute poverty: 64.7 percent (2002); 69.3 percent (2010). - Incidence of extreme poverty: 20.8 percent (2002); 33.0 percent (2010). - Nonmonetary poverty: 39.9 percent nationally; rural: 60.3 percent; urban: 8.4 percent. - Depth of poverty: national 5.7 percent; rural 8.8 percent; urban 0.9 percent. - Child labor (2010): 57 percent of children aged 5-14 worked (rural: 65 percent; urban: 45 percent). - Health and demographic indicators: - Life expectancy: 48.6 years (2009–2010). - Maternal mortality rate: 822 (2005–2007) reduced to 800 (2009–2010) per 100,000. - Infant mortality rate (per 1,000): 2000–2003: 122; 2009–2010: 104. - HIV/AIDS prevalence estimates: 3.6 percent (2010 sentinel); UNAIDS SPECTRUM 2009 total prevalence 2.6 percent; INASA/IHM study average 5.8 percent. - Education: - GER primary: 2009–2010: 107.8; NER primary: 2009–2010: 67.4. - Adult literacy rate: 56 percent (2009 RGPH data); women nationally: 39.9 percent (2010); rural women: 9.7 percent. - Net primary enrollment rate (2010): national 67.4 percent; urban 83.5 percent; rural 56.5 percent; girls 65.4 percent; boys 69.3 percent. - Access to services: - Access to safe drinking water improved to 40 percent (2009–2010); urban improved water sources: 84 percent; rural: 53 percent. - Improved sanitation use: urban households 35 percent; rural households at least 5 percent. ### PRSP II: Strategic guidelines, objectives and targets (2011–2015) - Overarching objective: significantly reduce poverty, create opportunities for income and employment, and improve access to quality basic public services under rule of law. - Specific objectives (verbatim highlights): - Reduce incidence of poverty nationally from 69.3 percent in 2010 to 59 percent in 2015; extreme poverty from 33 percent to 20 percent by 2015. - Reduce food insecurity index from 32 percent to 16 percent in 2015. - Achieve an economic growth rate averaging 5 percent per annum between 2011 and 2015. - Stabilize security via harmonized reform of defense and security forces. - Minimize structural inequalities between men and women. - Baseline/target table (selected entries): - Incidence of monetary poverty (%) — Status 2010: 69.3; Status 2015: 59.0 - Malnutrition rate — Status 2010: 32%; Status 2015: 16% - Real GDP growth rate (2011–2015 average) — Status 2010: 3.5; Status 2015: 5 - Net primary-education enrollment rate (%) — Status 2010: 67.4; Status 2015: 100 - Access to drinking water national (%) — Status 2010: 40; Status 2015: 65 - Wage bill/fiscal revenues — Status 2010: 63.2; Status 2015: 40 ### Four core areas (priorities and key actions) - Core area 1 — Strengthen the rule of law and republican institutions: - Reform defense and security sector: downsizing, professionalization, legal/regulatory framework, demobilization and reintegration (targets include reducing workforce to (3,430) and supporting reassignment of 2,300 on their way to retirement plus about 1000 [ineligible] individuals). - Reform justice system, improve access to justice, and human rights promotion. - Decentralization and local development; pilot communities and first local authority elections. - Core area 2 — Guarantee stable and stimulating macroeconomic environment: - Strengthen revenue mobilization and public expenditure quality; migrate to MTEF and program-based budgets. - Promote private sector: new investment code, one-stop-shop, OHADA enforcement, SME support, improve Doing Business constraints. - Macroeconomic targets: budget deficit below 3 percent of GDP; balance of payments current account deficit below 5 percent of GDP; annual inflation below 3 percent. - Core area 3 — Promote sustainable economic development: - Priorities: support agriculture, fisheries, livestock and tourism; accelerate energy and transport infrastructure; build climate-disaster response capacity. - Strategic sectors: cashew, rice, horticulture, fisheries, tourism, and emerging mining. - Agri-food and processing emphasized: local processing of cashew (only 4 percent processed locally now); fisheries potential 250,000 metric tons per year. - Core area 4 — Raise level of human capital: - Education: achieve universal primary education by 2015 (targets include net primary enrollment 100 percent by 2015); build average 365 classrooms per year and hire an average roughly 635 teachers per year. - Health: implement PNDS; expand immunization and maternal-child health; targets include reducing infant mortality from 103 (2010) to 80 by 2015, under-five mortality from 158 to 120 by 2015, and maternal mortality from 800 to 600 per 100,000 births by 2015. - Water and sanitation: increase access to drinking water from 40 percent (2010) to 65 percent (2015); build 3,291 water points and 125,078 latrines by 2015. ### Monitoring, evaluation and indicators - Institutional M&E framework: - Steering Committee chaired by the Prime Minister (political dialogue and steering). - Technical Committee for technical and administrative monitoring (minister responsible for planning chairs; quarterly meetings). - Sectoral Programming and Monitoring Committees coordinated with GEPs. - Information system components: - (i) monitoring poverty, living conditions, aggregates, gender disparities, inequities, and inequalities; coordinated by INE. - (ii) monitoring implementation; coordinated by the Directorate-General of Planning. - Indicator system panels: - First panel: impact and performance indicators (survey-based, every 3–5 years) including MDG indicators. - Second panel: annually measurable indicators for PRSP II implementation and performance. - Selected indicator benchmarks (exact figures preserved): - Poverty incidence 2010: 69.3% — Target 2015: 34.6% (Annex table entries retain ILAP source and periodicity). - Real GDP growth rate 2010: 3.5% — Target 2015: 5.5% (CRESMIC Code 3). - Wage bill/budget revenue 2009: 75.6% — Target: 35% (Min. Finance). - Time required to establish an enterprise 2010: 213 days (Doing Business). - Net primary school enrollment rate 2009: 67% — Target 2015: 100% (Min. National Education). ### Financing PRSP II — Scenarios and costing - Overall assessed cost of PRSP II (Optimistic scenario): CFAF 227.22 billion for 2011–2015 (capital expenditure total CFAF 215.86 billion; operating expenditure total CFAF 11.36 billion). - Financing composition in Optimistic scenario: - Financing with own resources (TOTAL): CFAF 128.43 billion. - External financing (TOTAL): CFAF 98.79 billion. - Financing gap (own resources minus cost) TOTAL: -98.79 (offset by external financing in the optimistic case). - Macro projections (Optimistic scenario highlights, averages 2011–2015): - Real GDP growth rate average: 7.54% (annual values: 5.62% in 2011; 6.58% in 2012; 7.50% in 2013; 8.50% in 2014; 9.48% in 2015). - Tax burden average: 10.5 (percent) (2011: 9.0; 2015: 12.1). - Wage bill/budget revenue average: 48.41% (2011: 57.80%; 2015: 40.25%). - Capital expenditure average: 49.8 (percent of fiscal resources/indicator context in table). - Baseline and alternative scenarios: - Baseline (trend) scenario: real growth expected at 5.3 percent per year during 2011–2015 (assumes additional capital resources are not mobilized or absorbed). - "Moderate" scenario: 50 percent absorption of additional capital resources → expected average growth 6.5 percent. - "Optimistic" scenario: 100 percent mobilization/absorption → higher growth trajectory as shown above. - Financing risks: - Political and institutional risks affecting partner support and defense/security reform. - Natural risks (rainfall variability affecting cashew production). - Economic risks (international cashew and crude oil price trends). - Failure to mobilize external resources would produce a substantial financing deficit (example: excluding external support in baseline, deficit could exceed CFAF 98 billion during 2011–2015). ### Sectoral priorities and quantified requirements (selected) - Education (requirements to achieve MDG 2 / universal primary education): - Classrooms to be built (Primary, academic years 2010/11–2014/15): annual figures include 304; 907; 972; 987; 971 (average: 828). - New teachers to be hired (Primary, academic years 2010/11–2014/15): 1,360; 1,459; 1,575; 1,615; 1,615 (average: 1,525). - Textbooks distribution targets (2010–2015): 941,727; 969,234; 997,578; 1,026,786; 1,056,294. - Health (infrastructure and human resources by year 2011–2015 highlights): - Community health units to be renovated annually: 60; 60; 60; 60; 61. - Community health workers (CHW) target each year 2011–2015: 4,206. - Nurses/partners (2011–2015): 637; 685; 685; 685; 685. - Physicians and specialized staff increments listed by category and year (exact annual figures preserved in source tables). - Agriculture and cashew sector: - Cashew exports: 1970: 1,200 mt; 2005: almost 100,000 mt; 2009: 135,500 mt; 2010: 122,300 mt. - Only 4 percent of cashew output is processed locally. - Rice production: average annual consumption estimated 190,000 tons; domestic production covers 47 percent of consumption (2009/2010 context); objective to raise production by 158,000 tons of paddy rice under PNIA. - Fisheries: - EEZ fish production potential estimated at 250,000 metric tons per year. - Total value of licenses in 2010: about US$4.2 million; EU annual compensation about US$9.5 million; sector generated no less than US$14 million in revenue for the government in 2010. - Energy and infrastructure (targets and figures): - Power generation (MW) table: 2010: 5.5; 2015: 15.5 (planned). - Increase power use recovery rate from 40 to 70 (percent invoiced and actually paid). - National electrification goals: 60-percent country-wide electricity coverage and 80-percent urban coverage (PRSP II targets for 2015 in objectives list). - Road network: classified length 2,755 km; paved 770 km (27.5 percent). - Social protection and gender: - Social protection coverage estimated at about 2 percent of the population (civil servants and a few private sector employees). - PRSP II targets include reducing structural inequalities between men and women and achieving specified gender benchmarks (e.g., proportion of seats held by women in national parliament: 2010: 10; 2015 target: 30). ### Monitoring and institutional implementation sequencing - PRSP II M&E development stages: - Minimum system 2011–2012: annual PRSP II implementation report (preparation begins in January of N+1, validated and published by April), annexed with PAP execution physical/financial data and monitoring indicators. - Reinforced system 2013–2015: quarterly synthetic reports, sectoral monitoring reports, annual ministerial program performance reports; program budgets developed and consolidated in sectors (education, health, agriculture, infrastructure) in 2011–2012 with annual progress reporting beginning in 2013. - Data and capacity improvements leveraged: - 2009 RGPH, MICS4/2010, ILAP II/2010 provide updated statistical base. - Public financial management systems: SIGFIP functional modules (since 2009), SYGADE deployed (2010), ASYCUDA++ installed (August 2010), aid management platform planned (PGA). - Joint Framework for Aid Coordination (QCAO) signed February 2009 as donor-government coordination forum. *Source: Consultant’s Mission Report, IMF — _cr11353* ### Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... ### Executive Summary ### Progress made and new challenges - After a long recession since the beginning of 2000 followed by a slight recovery in 2007, the economy entered a new growth spurt in 2008. - The average real growth rate averaged 3.1 percent between 2008 and 2009, compared with 1.2 percent in 2006 and 2007. - Growth rate was 3.5 percent in 2010. - The 5-percent growth target set in the first PRSP was not met. - Growth was propelled mainly by agriculture (6.3 percent in 2009), notably the cashew industry. - The export price of cashew nuts fell by almost 30 percent in 2009, but export revenue was offset by a considerable increase in the volume of exports. - Budget deficit averaged 10 percent of GDP between 2005 and 2007; reduced to 3.2 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent in 2009 through increased domestic revenue collection and expenditure control. - Civil service salaries accounted for over 75 percent of government revenue. - With partner support, the government resumed investment and payment of arrears to the private sector. - Infrastructure initiatives under PRSP I included: - Road building and repairs on major arteries in Bissau. - Preliminary studies for building 500 km of roadways linking Guinea-Bissau to neighboring countries (Guinea-Conakry and Senegal). - Routine maintenance on 400 km of dirt roads. - Constraints limiting expected outcomes: availability of financing, institutional instability, and limited institutional and human capacity to implement development projects on schedule. ### Economic and financial reforms in progress - Reforms over the last three years produced concrete results in macroeconomic stabilization and public finance improvements. - Key fiscal statistics: - Budget deficit: averaged 10 percent of GDP (2005–2007); 3.2 percent in 2008; 3.0 percent in 2009. - Civil service salaries: over 75 percent of government revenue. - Macroeconomic context included an unfavorable environment: political and institutional instability, serious deficiencies in basic economic infrastructure (energy and transport), and the international economic and oil crises. ### Weak and precarious human development - Human Development Index (HDI) of 0.289; ranked number 164 of 169 countries (UNDP World Development Report). - Between 2000 and 2010, average annual HDI growth rate was 0.9 percent versus 2.1 percent for sub-Saharan Africa and 1.68 percent for low-HDI countries. - Contributing factors to low HDI: - Widespread poverty with very low monetary incomes. - Life expectancy of 48.6 years due to problems with access to good quality health services. - Population growth rate: 2.5 percent. - Economic growth rate rarely exceeded a 3-percent average between 2000 and 2010. - Gender inequality: - Gender inequality gap of 0.381 in 2007; ranked 148th of 155 countries considered. - Employment and youth: - Unemployment rate for 15-24 age group: 10.6 percent in 2009. - Unemployment rate for women: 4.6 percent in 2009. - Including youth underemployment and unemployment, true unemployment rate likely closer to 30 percent. - Youth unemployment is a central strategic concern for PRSP II in agriculture, fisheries, and processing industries. ### Social development indicators: progress and setbacks - Improvements recorded despite limitations: - 4-10-point increase in the enrolment rate by level of education between 2004 and 2010 (MICS/IDSR-2010). - Reduction in maternal mortality rate from 822 to 800 per 100,000 pregnancies between 2006 and 2010. - Increase in life expectancy from 43 years in 1989 to 48.6 years in 2009. - MDG prospects: - It is highly unlikely that Guinea-Bissau will achieve the MDGs, except in the education sector. - Poverty trends (ILAP 2/2010): - 69.3 percent of Guineans are poor in 2010. - 33 percent are extremely poor in 2010. - These figures represent increases of 5 and 13 points, respectively, compared with 2002. - In Bissau, poverty held steady at 51 percent between 2002 and 2010. - Poverty increased in other regions: 3 out of every 4 persons are currently affected as opposed to 7 out of 10 in 2002. - Regions most afflicted by poverty in 2010: Oio, Bafatá, Tombali/Quinara, and Gabú. - Extreme poverty mainly affects Oio, Cacheu, Bafatá, Tombali, and Quinara. - Child labor and household impacts: - For the country as a whole in 2010, 57 percent of children aged 5-14 worked. - Child labor prevalence higher in rural areas: 65 percent; urban areas: 45 percent. - Nonmonetary poverty: - Affects 40 percent of the population nationally. - Affects 60.3 percent of the rural population and 8.4 percent of the urban population. - Depth/severity (average gap relative to the poverty line) is 5.7 percent at the national level; 8.8 percent in rural areas. *Executive Summary — _cr11353* ### 0.9 percent in urban areas). This result indicates that even limited improvements in living ### _cr11353 - 0.9 percent in urban areas). This result indicates that even limited improvements in living ### Main Strategic Guidelines of the PRSP II — Participatory process of drafting the PRSP II - PRSP II will incorporate lessons learned and adopt a holistic vision of national development with a participatory planning exercise involving all stakeholders. - Commitments incorporated: MDGs, CEDAW, ACHPR additional protocol on women’s rights, and Action Plan for Sexual and Reproductive Health Rights. - Emphasis on recovery of pro-poor economic growth and diversification through agriculture and livestock, fisheries, development of processing activities and marketing. - Improvement in national and local governance within the national strategy for consolidating peace and economic development. - Sectoral and geographic guidelines for action on the core areas of the PRSP. - Reduction in disparities between men and women and elimination of inequalities and forms of discrimination against women. - Strong link between PRSP II priorities and the state budget through the MTEF and program budgets in strategic sectors (agriculture and social sectors). - Dynamic monitoring and evaluation system that is comprehensive (breakdowns by sector, geographic area, gender, etc.) and efficient (easy to use and harmonized). - To correct PRSP I shortcomings, PRSP II preparation involved all development stakeholders and efforts to involve women and relevant institutions. - PRSP II preparation stages: - (i) official launch of the process in April 2010; - (ii) seminar on technical validation of the methodological documents (May 2010); - (iii) establishment of thematic groups (nine groups in all); - (iv) organization of specific seminars on various themes (four seminars); - (v) organization of regional and national consultations (October 2010 and May 2011); - (iv) validation by the entities created (Technical Committee and Steering Committee). ### Strategic guidelines and specific targets (2011–2015) - Main objective: significantly reduce poverty in all its dimensions, create greater opportunities for income generation, employment, and improved access to quality basic public services in a state where the rule of law is entrenched. - Specific objectives: - i. Reduction in the incidence of poverty at the national level from 69.3 percent in 2010 to 59 percent in 2015 and of extreme poverty from 33 percent to 20 percent during the same period, taking into account the disparity between men and women; - ii. Reduction in the food insecurity index from 32 percent to 16 percent in 2015; - iii. An economic growth rate that averages 5 percent per annum between 2011 and 2015; - iv. Stabilization of security in the country through the harmonized reform of the defense and security forces; - v. Minimization of structural inequalities between men and women. ### Four pillars of the PRSP II — Core areas - Core area 1: Strengthen the rule of law and the institutions of the republic - Build state capacity, structures, and authority for new political and administrative governance practices. - Accelerate and guide reforms in the defense and security sectors. - Support respect for human rights and development of the judicial system. - Public administration reform prioritized to guarantee success of new public policies and the rule of law. - Resume decentralization and local development with progressive transfer of powers and resources. - Core area 2: Guarantee a stable and stimulating macroeconomic environment - Improve macroeconomic fundamentals and public financial management to recover economic growth and attract foreign investment. - Promote private sector development by enhancing legal and administrative business frameworks and developing the financial system to better support economic operators. - Core area 3: Promote sustainable economic development - Strategic selection of productive sectors to create employment and diversify the production base. - Priorities include: - Support and assist development of promising industries in agriculture (agriculture, fisheries, livestock) and in tourism; - Accelerate development of basic economic infrastructure, particularly in energy (expansion of production and distribution infrastructure) and transport (road, marine, river, and air), within new sectoral policies and institutional reforms, and in keeping with environmental requirements, including those related to climate change; - Build institutional, technical, and financial capacity to enable Guinea-Bissau to take urgent measures to address natural disasters (floods, drought, soil and forest degradation, disruptions in rainfall cycles, outbreaks and epidemics, etc.). - Core area 4: Raise the level of development of human capital - Accelerate achievement of the MDGs, develop human capital, improve living standards, and address gender issues. - Priorities: - Enhance development of human capital, continue efforts to improve education, health, and literacy systems; - Improve access to safe drinking water and enhance living standards by creating programs to make water more available, mainly in rural areas, and develop proper sanitation infrastructure; - Advance gender issues to reduce gender inequality across the board. ### Monitoring and evaluation system - Institutional framework organized around a simplified system: - Steering Committee for guiding political dialogue; - Technical Committee for technical and administrative monitoring; - Sectoral programming and monitoring committees based on sectoral research and planning offices (GEP) and existing (or planned) mechanisms for monitoring strategies and action plans. - Monitoring information system components: - (i) Component for monitoring poverty, living conditions, aggregates, gender disparities, inequities, and inequalities; - (ii) Component for monitoring implementation. - Component for monitoring poverty, living conditions, aggregates, gender disparities, inequities, and inequalities — activities: 1. Planning the production of research data (planning surveys, mobilizing financial resources, preparing terms of reference, etc.); 2. Systematic breakdown by sex and age of all information provided; 3. Development of routine information systems to produce annual administrative data (focusing on agriculture, education, health, water and sanitation, infrastructure, social solidarity, employment, and the security and justice sectors) and promotion of projects to support these systems that target primary data producers/gatherers (school directors, health center directors, etc.); 4. Promotion of quantitative and qualitative sectoral studies on gender. - Component for monitoring implementation — coordinated by the Directorate-General of Planning; activities: 1. Production of reports on budget execution based on the SIGFIP (the organic, functional, and economic classification of expenditure); 2. Production of an annual report on PIP execution based on the transmission of GEP information, monitoring external assistance, and collecting specific data on pre-selected strategic projects; 3. Production of a mid-term and a final progress report on gender disparities, inequities, and inequalities; 4. Implementation of an external assistance management platform. ### Introduction — summary of PRSP I outcomes and rationale for PRSP II - Under PRSP I, Guinea-Bissau made significant progress in stabilizing macroeconomic management, reforming public administration, and improving provision of public services (education and health). - Economic growth averaged 3.1 percent over 2007-2009, below the initial target of 5 percent. - Poverty level remained high: 69.3 percent in 2010, up from 64.7 percent in 2002, limiting chances of attaining the MDGs by 2015. - PRSP II covers 2011-2015 and aims to consolidate peace and the rule of law, accelerate sustainable economic growth and human resource development, and accelerate achievement of the MDGs. - PRSP II aligns with “Guinea-Bissau 2025 Djitu Ten,” adopted in 1996, and is organized into three parts (recent developments; guidelines, objectives, priority interventions and macroeconomic framework; framework for implementation, monitoring and evaluation). ### I. Political, economic, and social context — Governance and security - 2000s marked by persistent political instability, a weak state, and failure to ensure military submission to civilian authority. - Indicators of instability: - (i) the average term of successive governments between 2004-2009 did not exceed six months; - (ii) the military continually interfered in political affairs and governance; - (iii) the international community imposed conditionalities and development partners deferred assistance. - Use of the national territory for drug trafficking increased since 2006, infiltrating public life and institutions and generating political instability and corruption. - 2006–2009 political developments: - 2005 presidential elections and return to constitutional normalcy, followed by government fall in 2006 and renewed instability; - 2007 “Pact for National Political Stability” and “Agreement for Governmental and Parliamentary Stability” introduced new governance arrangements and led to a new government; - An international donor conference was organized in Geneva in late 2006 based on PRSP I but commitments did not materialize; - 2008 dissolution of the People’s National Assembly (ANP) and resignation of the Government of National Consensus; legislative elections in November 2008 resulted in a parliamentary majority favoring a single party, the ANP; - January 2009 initiated a new governance cycle implementing fiscal consolidation and reforms in defense, security, civil service, and justice; - 2009 presidential election reinforced governance cycle; - August 2010 ANP launched a national reconciliation program sponsored by the President with broad civic support. - Recent positive signs: improved relationship with development partners, reaching completion point under the HIPC Initiative, execution of an aid program financed by Angola and partnerships with ECOWAS, CPLP, and EU. - Women participated actively in civil society but face constrained representation on the National Steering Committee for consolidating peace and scarce resources. ### 1.2 Economic Performance - After recession and a slight recovery in 2007, the economy entered a new growth spurt in 2008. - Real growth rate averaged 3.1 percent in 2008 and 2009; average for 2006 and 2007 was 1.2 percent. - 2010 growth rate is expected to rise to 3.5 percent. - Growth drivers: - Agriculture growth of 6.3 percent in 2009, including cashew nuts production and export chain. - Despite a fall in export price of cashews by almost 30 percent in 2009, export revenue impact was offset by a considerable increase in export volumes. - Women’s economic contribution: - ILAP II/2010: 77.1 percent of working women employed in the primary sector and close to 23.0 percent in the tertiary sector (services), 12 percent of whom were in the trade subsector. - Women’s activities improved family living standards and raised GDP but production and productivity levels remain low due to difficulties accessing factors of production. - Reforms in last three years produced concrete results in macroeconomic stabilization and public financial management. - The budget deficit, which had risen to 10 percent of GDP between 2005 and 2007, was reduced to *Source: _cr11353 - 0.9 percent in urban areas). This result indicates that even limited improvements in living* ### 3.2 percent in 2008 and to 3.0 percent in 2009 thanks to greater mobilization of domestic ### _cr11353 - 3.2 percent in 2008 and to 3.0 percent in 2009 thanks to greater mobilization of domestic ### Macroeconomic performance (2005–2009) - GDP growth rate (percent): 2005: 4.3; 2006: 1.8; 2007: 3.2; 2008: 3.2; 2009: 3.0 - Per capita GDP growth rate (percent): 2005: 0.3; 2006: -1.1; 2007: -0.3; 2008: 1.3; 2009: 0.8 - Inflation rate: 2005: 3.3; 2006: 2.2; 2007: 4.6; 2008: 10.4; 2009: -1.6 - Budget balance, including grants (in percent of GDP): 2005: -11.9; 2006: -8.3; 2007: -10.9; 2008: -3.2; 2009: -2.9 - Balance of payments current account, including transfers (in percent of GDP): 2005: -5.1; 2006: -10.2; 2007: -9.4; 2008: -2.8; 2009: 1.6 - Gross domestic saving (in percent of GDP): 2005: 9.5; 2006: -0.3; 2007: 16.5; 2008: 8.9; 2009: 10.0 - Fiscal actions and outcomes: greater mobilization of domestic revenue and expenditure control (including civil servants’ salaries, which represented more than 75 percent of government revenue) supported a program to resume public investment and partial payment of domestic debt to the private sector. - Balance of payments shift: deficit of 5.1 percent of GDP in 2005 to a surplus of 1.6 percent of GDP in 2009. - Inflation trajectory: generally low except a peak of 10.4 percent in 2008; fell to -1.6 percent in 2009. ### Structural reforms and public financial management - Reforms implemented: - Biometric census of civil servants—with identification of 4,000 fictitious workers. - Adoption of a budget nomenclature harmonized with WAEMU directives. - Introduction of an Integrated Public Financial Management System—SIGFIP. - Measures to improve the business climate: adoption of a new investment code and OHADA regulations, establishment of a one-stop-shop to facilitate business establishment, creation of a Commercial Court. - Public investment program: resumed public investment with partner support; partial payment of domestic debt to private sector. ### Structural constraints and economic vulnerabilities - Sectoral dependence: - Agriculture accounts for almost 60 percent of GDP (National Accounts – 2008/INE). - Cashew industry: over 90 percent of total exports and about 17 percent of government revenue. - Private sector: weak and mainly informal; in 2009 there were no more than 75 registered firms. - Financial inclusion: access to banking and financial services restricted to 2-3 percent of the population. - Competitiveness and infrastructure: - Serious shortage of basic infrastructure (energy, transport). - Limited public sector capacity to provide support. - World Bank Doing Business ranking (2010): 181st of 183 countries. - Gender and labor constraints: - Lack of visibility of women’s contributions in informal urban business sector and in the home; not counted in GDP computation. - Skill mismatch: level of development of human capital and labor market needs create structural problems finding skilled workers. - Investment levels: - Investment improved but remains low: average 24.1 percent of GDP between 2006 and 2008 versus 13.0 percent of GDP between 2001 and 2003. - Total public investment represented 53 percent of total investment in 2006-2008; less than 10 percent applied to productive infrastructure sectors. - Foreign direct investment is virtually nonexistent. ### Infrastructure and PRSP I implementation - Achievements reported: - Rehabilitation and extension of the power grid completed. - Construction and rehabilitation started on some major arteries in Bissau. - Studies for building 500 km of roads linking Guinea-Bissau to Guinea and Senegal completed. - 180 km of roadways in the national network rehabilitated. - Routine maintenance performed on 400 km of dirt roads. - Implementation constraints: insufficient financing, political-institutional instability, and limited institutional capacity led to performance far short of objectives. ### Human development profile and social indicators - Human Development Index (HDI) and ranking: - HDI: 0.289 (2010). - HDI ranking: 164th of 169. - Average annual HDI growth rate (2000–2010): 0.9 percent (sub-Saharan Africa: 2.1 percent; very low HDI countries: 1.68 percent). - Key human development factors: - Widespread poverty with very low monetary income. - Limited life expectancy: 48.6 years. - Population growth rate: 2.5 percent. - Economic growth rate: little more than 3 percent on average between 2000 and 2010. - Gender inequality index: 0.381 (2007); GII rank: 148th of 155. - Employment and labor: - Potential labor force (15 years and older): 37.7 percent of total population; almost 61 percent of this age group are working. - Women working for 6 years or more comprise more than 65 percent of the resident female population; less than 2 percent considered nonworking. - Employment rate reported at 89 percent but underemployment is prevalent, especially in rural areas. - Youth employment rate (15-24 age group) in 2009: 10.6 percent; employment rate for women in that group: 4.6 percent. - Unemployment rate (factoring in youth underemployment and unemployment) probably close to 30 percent. - Children and vulnerability: - National social protection of children categories: (i) structural vulnerability with limited access to basic services; (ii) acute vulnerability without proper family care; (iii) vulnerability due to HIV/AIDS. - Notable social progress (selected): - 4 to 10-point increase in school enrolment rates depending on education level between 2004 and 2010 (MICS-4/IDSR-2010). - Maternal mortality reduction from 822 to 800 per 100,000 pregnant women between 2006 and 2010. - Increase in life expectancy from 43 years in 1989 to 48.6 years in 2009. ### Changes in main social indicators (selected table figures) - Incidence of absolute poverty (in percent): 64.7 (2002); 69.3 (2010) - Incidence of extreme poverty (in percent): 20.8 (2002); 33.0 (2010) - GER at the primary level (in percent): 2000-2003: 70.0; 2005-2007: 101.0; 2009-2010: 107.8 - NER at the primary level (in percent): 2000-2003: 45.3; 2005-2007: 56.9; 2009-2010: 67.4 - GER at the secondary level (in percent): 2000-2003: 19.0; 2005-2007: 30.0; 2009-2010: 46.6 - Infant mortality rate (per 1,000): 2000-2003: 122; 2005-2007: 138; 2009-2010: 104 - Infant-juvenile mortality rate (per 1,000): 2000-2003: 205; 2005-2007: 223; 2009-2010: 155 - Assisted delivery rate (in percent): 2005-2007: 38.8 (2006); 2009-2010: 43.0 (2010) - Maternal mortality rate (per 100,000): 2005-2007: 822; 2009-2010: 800 - Access to safe drinking water (in percent): 2005-2007: 35; 2009-2010: 40 - Life expectancy at birth (years): 2009-2010: 48.6 - HDI: 0.289 (2010); HDI ranking: 164th of 169 - Gender inequality index (GII): 0.381 (2007); GII rank: 148th of 155 ### Access to basic services and remaining challenges - Health services access: in 2005 only 38 percent of the population had access to quality health services. - Disease burden: persistent malaria, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and frequent cholera outbreaks. - Education access disparities: - Net primary school enrolment rate national: 67.4 percent; rural: 56.5 percent; urban: 83.5 percent. - Eastern region school-age enrolment: 52.6 percent. - Approximately one in three children (32.6 percent) of school age have no access to primary education. - Child and maternal health: - Infant mortality: 104 per 1,000 deaths before first birthday (reported as 104 per mil). - Maternal mortality remains among highest in region: 818 per 100,000 births cited in comparative context. - Water: approximately half of the population does not have access to safe drinking water. ### Progress drivers and sectoral actions - Education actions: construction/renovation of infrastructure with private sector, local community, and NGO contributions; recruitment, teacher training and development; policy reform. - Health actions: construction/rehabilitation of health infrastructure; training of doctors, nurses, and health technicians; introduction of new vaccines and greater immunization coverage; strengthening programs against AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria. - Water and sanitation actions: construction of public water fountains and training for management committees; construction of more than 3,000 latrines and water distribution networks in main urban centers. ### Strategic implications noted in source - Employment will be central to PRSP II strategic options, focusing on agriculture, fisheries, processing activities, and public investment policies intended to create skilled employment rather than unskilled jobs. - Key constraints to address: diversification away from cashew dependence, strengthening the private sector, expanding financial inclusion, improving infrastructure (energy, transport), building institutional and implementation capacity, and increasing investment in productive infrastructure. *Source: Consultant’s Mission Report, IMF* ### 14.2 percent. ### 14.2 percent. ### Health: recent disbursements, maternal & child health, immunization, malaria, nutrition, and harmful practices - Considerable resources have been disbursed in recent years, particularly during the implementation of the PNDS; these resources have been used to improve the health status of the population to some extent. - Maternal and child health: - 93 percent of women between the ages of 15 and 49 years old had a live birth during the two years preceding the survey and received prenatal care at least once from qualified personnel. - 70 percent received prenatal care at least four times from qualified personnel. - 44 percent of pregnant women were assisted by qualified personnel (doctor, nurse, or midwife). - 42 percent of deliveries took place in health care establishments. - Immunization coverage (MICS-4/IDS-2010): - 93 percent of children received the BCG vaccine. - 76 percent received the three DTP doses. - 73 percent received the three doses of the poliomyelitis vaccine. - 61 percent were vaccinated against measles. - 49 percent received the yellow fever vaccine. - Malaria: - 64 percent of households have at least one insecticide treated mosquito net (ITN). - 35 percent of children under five years of age sleep under an ITN. - 32 percent of pregnant women sleep under an ITN. - Nutrition and anemia: - Malnutrition affects the growth of over one third of children under five years old. - Severe anemia continues to affect pregnant women frequently. - Female genital mutilation and obstetric fistula: - Almost 50 percent of women between the ages of 15 and 49 have been circumcised. - The prevalence rate is 40 percent among girls 0-14 years old. - Women may contract fistula as early as age 15. - Main health sector bottlenecks: - Lack of training of medical and paramedical personnel. - Low level of investment in certain regions. - Public’s lack of geographic and financial access to health services, particularly for pregnant women and adolescents. ### Education: enrolment, repetition, literacy, and key challenges - Schooling remains difficult despite progress; high repetition and dropout rates persist. - Transition and completion: - According to MICS 2000, 43.6 percent of children enrolled in the first year of school will complete the sixth year. - Net enrolment rate rose by 7.6 percent a year between 1994 and 2000. - MICS-4/IDSR-2010 trends: - Net enrollment rate increased from 56.9 percent in 2003/2004 to 67.4 percent in 2010 (an improvement of 10.5 percent in six years). - For girls, the rate was 65.4 percent in 2010 compared with 55.9 percent in 2003/2004. - Girls accounted for 57 percent of the dropouts in 2009 (43.6 percent were boys). - Net enrolment rate for girls at the secondary level was less than 15 percent in 2010 compared with 23 percent for boys. - A decade ago, repetition rates at secondary and higher levels were 33.8 percent for girls and 65.9 percent for boys, with a ratio of 51 girls to every 100 boys. - Literacy: - Adult literacy rate: 56 percent (2009 RGPH data). - Literacy rate in the 15-24 age group: 65 percent. - 2010 literacy rate for women nationally: 39.9 percent. - Literacy rate for women in Bissau: 50.4 percent. - Literacy rate for women in rural areas: 9.7 percent. - Outside Bissau, Bolama-Bijagós, and Cacheu, literacy is very low, particularly in Oio and Tombali. - Main education challenges (summarized): - Enhanced performance to reduce failure and dropout rates, particularly for girls. - Increased enrolment, in particular in rural areas. - Improved parity to reduce inequalities, particularly at secondary and higher levels. ### Safe drinking water and sanitation - 2010 MICS-4/IDSR-2010 findings: - More than half (two-thirds) of the population uses an improved water source. - Urban-rural gap in improved water sources: 84 percent in urban areas, 53 percent in rural areas. - Improved sanitation use: 35 percent of households in urban areas use improved sanitation facilities; at least 5 percent of households in rural areas use improved sanitation facilities. - Impacts noted: - Working women and children, hours worked and travel distances (particularly in rural areas), directly affect girls’ school enrolment, women’s literacy, health status, and productive capacity. ### HIV/AIDS: prevalence, testing, knowledge, and sexual behavior - Prevalence: - HIV/AIDS prevalence estimated at 3.6 percent in 2010 based on sentinel operations. - Higher rate for pregnant women: 5 percent. - Virus types: - Circulation of HIV-1 is increasing while HIV-2 is trending downwards. - PMTCT/PVT activities: - PMTCT(PVT) activities have come to a standstill. - 16 percent of pregnant women were tested for HIV during prenatal visits in 2008; this proportion remained unchanged in the first half of 2009. - Number of PMTCT/PVT centers increased from 18 in 2008 to 55 in 2009. - Knowledge and behavior (MICS-4/IDSR-2010): - All women have already heard about HIV/AIDS. - Only 15 percent of young women aged 15-24 have sufficient knowledge about HIV prevention. - 43 percent correctly identified the three forms of mother-to-child transmission. - 80 percent of young girls aged 15-24 have already had sexual relations. - 39 percent had casual sexual relations with an occasional partner within the 12 months preceding the survey. - Of those with casual partners, 47 percent stated they had used a condom during their most recent sexual encounter. - NGOs report male partners often refuse to use condoms, particularly in conjugal relationships, even if they know they are HIV-positive. - Social impacts: - The epidemic is becoming feminized, affecting young girls aged 15-18. - Repercussions include children born to HIV-positive mothers, children unable to attend school because mothers cannot pay, and orphaned or abandoned children. ### Human rights: structural challenges, recent improvements, and priorities - Ratification gaps: - Guinea-Bissau has not yet ratified several international instruments including the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination, Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman, or Degrading Treatment or Punishment, and the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, which applies to 13.5 percent of the Guinean population (RGPH/2009). - Current human rights concerns: - Weak judicial and security systems encourage dangerous sociocultural practices, including gender-based violence and female genital mutilation. - 44.5 percent of women in the 15-49 age group were subject to the practice of excision (MICS-4/IDSR-2010). - Early and forced marriages: national average of 27 percent of girls under 18 years of age. - Dysfunctional judicial institutions undermine access to justice and give rise to vigilantism and social conflict. - Prison system not designed for reintegration; no effective criminal policy to end official lawlessness and guarantee public safety. - Economic, social, and cultural rights: - ILAP II (2010) showed poverty was worse than in 2002 and unemployment had increased. - Gender-based violence cases (2010 survey by IMC and Interior Ministry): - 22,598 cases nationwide. - 40 percent involved physical violence. - 60 percent involved sexual violence. - Progress and initiatives: - Ratified CEDAW (1979), Resolutions 1325 (2000) and 1820, and the Additional Protocol to the African Charter on the Rights of Women in Africa (Maputo, 2003). - Began to implement CEDAW and the Convention on the Rights of the Child in May 2010. - Submitted an initial report on human rights to the United Nations Human Rights Council. - Justice sector reforms: rehabilitation and operation of prisons in Mansoa and Bafatá; approval of the law governing access to the justice system; recruitment of new prison guards; legislative reform; restructuring and modernization of the police force; adoption of a national policy for the justice sector by the government on January 13, 2010. - Coordination structures created: Mother and Child Institute, National Human Rights Commission, National Commission to Abandon Harmful Practices. - Policy priorities: - Public policy must focus on economic development that promotes human rights by increasing opportunities for wealth creation and employment. - Consolidation of the rule of law, cultivation of citizenship, and protection and effectiveness of human rights, including the right to development. - Improve coordination between existing institutions to avoid duplication, overlapping, fragmentation, and inconsistencies. - Change regulations, attitudes, and practices and honor international obligations to combat social inequality and reduce poverty. - Social protection: - No social safety net to protect against social marginalization and extreme poverty. - Lack of a system for civil protection of citizens and to restore civil defense. ### Gender inequality: structural inequalities and setbacks - Demographics and contribution: - Women number 746,404, representing 51.5 percent of the total population (2009 census). - Women contribute significantly to economic activity, child rearing, health of families, and domestic work. - Disparities and constraints: - Women suffer more from subpar health, low school enrolment, poor literacy rates, and reduced incomes compared with men. - Women face higher unemployment and difficulties accessing basic social infrastructures. - Women seek remedy through the justice system in insignificant numbers compared to men. - Employment (ILAP II, 2010): - 3.9 percent of working women were employed in the private sector compared with 10.4 percent of men. - Government commitments: - Government ratified most declarations, conventions, and resolutions on women’s advancement and protection. - National Policy on Gender Equality and Equity (PNIEG) being finalized as the framework for promoting, coordinating, and following up actions. ### Economic development and infrastructure: primary sector, energy, transport, and private sector - 1.4.1 Primary sector: little development of potential - Primary sector (agriculture, livestock, forestry, and fisheries) accounted for the formation of 62 percent of GDP in 2008. - Agriculture: - Agriculture is dominated by cashew growing and is the mainstay of the economy. - Source of income for 85 percent of the population. - Accounts for 65 percent of total employment. - Agricultural exports represent 98 percent of total merchandise exports. - Fresh water rice production could be increased fourfold (from 600 kg/ha to 2.5 metric tons/ha). - Between 2000 and 2008, grain production was the most dynamic activity and recorded the highest growth after cashew nuts and livestock. - Cashew nuts: - Exports: 1,200 metric tons in 1970; almost 100,000 metric tons in 2005; 135,500 mt in 2009; 122,300 mt in 2010. - Only 4 percent of output is processed locally; the rest is exported unprocessed. - Cashew crops occupy 47 percent of farmland and employ 80 percent of the rural farming population. - Competitive yields: 500–600 kg/ha. - High internal rate of return (IRR) on investment in cashew nut processing. - Livestock: - Total of 1.3 million heads of cattle. - Subsector underdeveloped; country imports meat, milk, and derivatives. - Constraints: poor genetic quality of breeds, animal diseases, feeding conditions, lack of basic processing facilities. - Fisheries: - Fish production potential in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) estimated at 250,000 metric tons per year. - Guinea-Bissau issued fishing licenses to about 200 industrial fishing vessels for periods ranging from 3 to 12 months in 2004-2006. - Total value of licenses in 2010 was about US$4.2 million. - European Union annual compensation about US$9.5 million for access to fisheries. - In 2010, sector generated no less than US$14 million in revenue for the government, paid mainly by foreign fleets for fishing rights. - Sector contributes 25-40 percent of the government’s annual revenue. - Processing activities are virtually nonexistent. - Policy actions needed: - Restructure the administration and operationalize the legal and regulatory framework for business. - Implement a fishery management system based on knowledge of resource status and regular monitoring. - Regulate and develop industrial fishing rights. - Promote a system of coastal surveillance and monitoring with an efficient judicial system. - Constraints for the primary sector: - Political and institutional instability preventing medium-term strategy adoption. - Financial system’s inability to cater to primary sector activity. - Degraded economic infrastructure, especially ports. - Government response: - National Agricultural Investment Program (PNIA) prepared, setting priority objectives for the next 15 years. - Priority investments to be channeled into: (i) cashew nuts and rice; (ii) livestock; (iii) mango; (iv) horticulture; (v) fisheries; (vi) development of financial services; and (vii) strengthening of support and advisory services in all subsectors. - Special attention to building the productive capacity of the entire rural population, including women. - 1.4.2 Infrastructure development: energy and transport lags - Energy sector: - Electrification rate very low, especially in rural areas. - Urban power is frequently cut and not available to all households. - Since 2000, production declined drastically: capacity exceeded 20 MW at the beginning of the decade; in 2010 power production capacity was no more than 2 MW while demand was close to 30 MW. - Contract signed with private enterprise to supply an additional 2.5 MW, resulting in a total current output of 5.5 MW; in reality only 2 MW are produced on average owing to lack of liquidity to purchase fuel. - Obtention of a US$10 million subsidy from ECOWAS and WAEMU to purchase fuel for the power company EAGB. - Main challenges: - Restoring solvency. - Reducing excessive dependence on imported fuel by maximizing potential for subregional production. - Protecting private investment and mobilizing financing to modernize the sector. - Improving knowledge and consideration of alternative energy sources regarding income and environmental impact. - Port of Bissau: - Main port; accounts for 85 percent of trade flows. - Port is seriously dilapidated; rates are high compared with quality of service. - Port management entity has no managerial autonomy or funding; APGB faces operational, human resource, and financial challenges. - Government strategy: public-private partnership model where National Port Authority retains regulatory role and operations transferred to a private contractor; plan includes financial model and bidding process for procurement. - Medium- to long-term needs: rehabilitate main port infrastructure, human resource development, clarify legal status, create warehousing and handling space for containers and conventional cargoes. - Roads: - Classified road network length: 2,755 km; two thirds not paved. - Main road network is in good condition due to projects supporting Bissau–Ziguinchor segment (including two bridges in 2004 and 2009) with access to Banjul in Gambia. - Southern part of the country remains difficult to access requiring long detours. - Main problem: state of secondary roads during the rainy season impacting flow of agricultural goods, particularly cashew nuts. - Road maintenance is a major unresolved issue. - Road improvements affect women’s work conditions and survival of pregnant women and children via access to health care. - 1.4.3 Private sector: development needs and reforms - Private sector critical for economic growth and job creation; investment climate needs improvement. - Constraints: complexity of regulations, lack of transparency, limited government capacity, conducive to corruption. - Women in the workforce: - Women remain underrepresented and in subordinate positions. - ILAP II (2010): only 3.9 percent of working women employed in the private sector versus 10.4 percent of men. - Reforms and improvements: - Simplifying procedures for establishing a business via a one stop shop. - Two decrees in March 2010 laid legal bases for creating enterprises. - Lag time for registering a business reduced from 213 to 11 days. - Modernizing the tax administration and simplifying/streamlining for SMEs are priorities (more than 30 percent of enterprises consider the tax administration a hindrance). - Remaining constraints to private sector development: - Negative externalities, parasitism, inadequate financing, inadequate training, lack of support and advisory assistance to enterprises. *Source: _cr11353 - 14.2 percent.* ### 1.5 Analysis of poverty and MDG trends ### 1.5 Analysis of poverty and MDG trends ### 1.5.1 Profile of monetary poverty: worsening poverty - Absolute poverty (income of less than US$2 per day): 64.7 percent of the population (Rapid Poverty Assessment Survey). - Extreme poverty (income of less than US$1 per day): 20.8 percent of the population (Rapid Poverty Assessment Survey). - Regional differences: - Intensity of extreme poverty: 19.8 percent for Bissau and 26.4 percent for other regions. - Absolute and extreme poverty more prevalent in the interior than in Bissau; gap much greater for absolute poverty than for extreme poverty. - Demographic and household correlates (2002 assessment and 2010 updates): - 80 percent of the poor are between the ages of 15 and 35 (2002). - Unemployment represents 6.5 percent of the population (2002). - Poverty affects more women than men; probability of being poor increases with household size and decreases with head-of-household education; secondary education provides opportunity to emerge from poverty. - Trend 2002 to 2010 (ILAP II): - Overall poverty: 69.3 percent in 2010 (increase of 5 percentage points over 2002). - Extreme poverty: 33.0 percent in 2010 (increase of 13 percentage points over 2002). - Poverty in Bissau remained at 51 percent; poverty worsened outside Bissau affecting 3 out of 4 people (versus 7 out of 10 in 2002). - Most affected regions in 2010: Oio, Bafatá, Tombali/Quinara, and Gabú. - Extreme poverty concentrated in Oio, Cacheu, Bafatá, Tombali, and Quinara. - Child labor and gender: - In 2010, 57 percent of children aged 5-14 were working nationally; 65 percent in rural areas and 45 percent in urban areas. - Increase in poverty affected both sexes; women suffered more than men. - Female-headed households (absolute poverty, US$2/day per person): 56.3 percent in Bissau and 70 percent in other regions. - Male-headed households (absolute poverty): 48.8 percent in Bissau and 76.5 percent in other regions. - Female-headed households (extreme poverty, US$1/day per person): 15.5 percent in Bissau and 38.7 percent in other regions. - Male-headed households (extreme poverty): 12.2 percent in Bissau and 40.0 percent in other regions. - In the regions overall, incidence of poverty and extreme poverty is higher in male-headed households than in female-headed households. - Education and literacy: - In 2010 (MICS-4/IDSR), only 12 percent of women in the poorest households were literate. - Women in wealthier households had a 73-percent literacy rate. ### 1.5.2 Profile of nonmonetary poverty: precarious living conditions - Overall nonmonetary poverty (2009 RGPH / 2010 analysis): 39.9 percent of the population affected. - Urban/rural breakdown: - Rural nonmonetary poverty: 60.3 percent. - Urban nonmonetary poverty: 8.4 percent. - Depth of poverty: - National depth: 5.7 percent. - Rural depth: 8.8 percent. - Urban depth: 0.9 percent. - Interpretation: many poor are relatively close to the poverty line; modest improvements in housing, sanitation, water, and durable goods can shift incidence significantly. - Spatial distribution (regions with highest incidence/severity/depth): - Tombali: highest incidence at 68.9 percent. - SAB (Autonomous Sector of Bissau): lowest incidence at 2.6 percent. - Other high-incidence regions: Oio (68.2 percent), Bafatá (37.2 percent), Cacheu (61.1 percent), Bolama/Bijagós (depth 12.9 percent; severity 3 percent). - Five regions accounting for most national nonmonetary poverty: Oio (25.4 percent of national poverty), Cacheu (16.2 percent), Gabú (13.9 percent), Bafatá (12.9 percent), Tombali (10.9 percent) — totaling 79.3 percent of national nonmonetary poverty. - Key deficits driving nonmonetary poverty: - Durable floors, walls, and roofing. - Access to safe drinking water and modern sanitary facilities (bathroom, latrine). - Access to sanitation services. - Access to key sources of energy (oil, gas, electricity). - Urban problems: electrical lighting, basic sanitation, drinking water, durable modern housing. - Rural problems: makeshift housing, safe drinking water, sanitation. - Access to services: - 61.5 percent of poor families live more than one hour from a health center. - 74.6 percent of poor families live more than one hour from a school. - 24 percent of poor families live between 15 minutes and one hour from a source of safe drinking water. - 23 percent of students from poor families spend at least one hour commuting to school. - Sectoral concentration and employment: - Agriculture concentrates 75 percent of families and individuals who are poor in nonmonetary terms; agriculture is heavily dominated by unskilled labor. - Lower risk of nonmonetary poverty in business, services, transport, and construction. - Determinants that significantly reduce probability of nonmonetary poverty (marginal impacts): - Having a secondary education reduces probability by 0.10. - Having a higher education reduces probability by 0.099. - Emerging from extreme monetary poverty reduces probability by 0.092. - Presence of a literate female household member aged 15-24 reduces probability by 0.052. - Location of a health center within less than 30 minutes reduces probability by 0.046. - Head of household completing primary school decreases probability by 0.038. - Location of a primary school less than 30 minutes away reduces probability by 0.028. - Regional odds of being poor in nonmonetary terms (relative reductions): - SAB: -0.444 - Gabú: -0.112 - Bafatá: -0.109 - Cacheu: -0.108 - Quinara: -0.075 - Oio: -0.059 - Biombo and Bolama/Bijagós: opportunities statistically no better. - Policy implication: - Targeted social policies emphasizing secondary education, proximity to schools and health centers, literacy among young women, and investments in basic infrastructure (water, sanitation, durable housing, energy, durable goods) will be most effective in reducing nonmonetary poverty. - Need to address regional disparities to reduce domestic migration towards regions with greater potential to reduce poverty. ### 1.5.3 MDG status and trends: sectoral comparison - General MDG progress overview: - Significant advances: education (reduction of gender disparities at secondary level) and access to safe drinking water. - Worsening: poverty — absolute poverty rose from 49 percent in 1990 to 69.3 percent in 2010. - Health: maternal mortality rate persistently high at 800/100,000 births compared with a target of 229 in 2015; under-five and infant mortality similarly problematic. - Education: net enrolment rate tripled from 23 percent in 1990 to 67.4 percent in 2010. - Overall assessment: MDGs for poverty, infant health, maternal mortality, and access to safe drinking water will not be achieved by 2015; other MDGs may come close to targets. - Table of selected MDG indicators and trends (1990 / 2000 / 2010 / 2015 target) - Objective 1 — Reduce poverty and extreme poverty: - Absolute poverty ratio (percent): 49 (1990); 64.7 (2002 data cited for 2010 baseline); 69.3 (2010). - Extreme poverty ratio (percent): 26 (1990); 20.8 (2002 data cited for 2010 baseline); 33.0 (2010). - 2015 target listed as: Absolute poverty 24.5; Extreme poverty 13. - Objective 2 — Achieve universal primary education: - Net enrolment rate: 23 (1990); 45.3 (2000); 67.4 (2010); 100 (2015 target). - Objective 3 — Promote gender equality and empower women: - Ratio of girls to boys in primary education: 0.56 (1990); 0.67 (2000); 0.93 (2010); 100 (2015 target). - Objective 4 — Reduce under-five child mortality: - Under-five child mortality rate (per 1000 children): 240 (1990); 239 (2000, footnote indicates 1990 data used for 2000 column); 158 (2010); 80 (2015 target). - Infant mortality rate (per 1000 children): 142 (1990); 124 (2000, footnote indicates 1990 data used); 103 (2010); 47.3 (2015 target). - Objective 5 — Improve maternal health: - Maternal mortality rate (per 100,000 women): 914 (1990); 822 (2000); 800 (2010); 229 (2015 target). - Objective 6 — Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases: - AIDS prevalence rate: 5.9 (1990); 7.8 (2000); 3.4 (2010); 2.0 (2015 target). - Objective 7 — Ensure environmental sustainability (safe drinking water): - Percentage with sustainable access to safe drinking water: 29 (2002 data cited); 40 (2000); 65 (2010); (2015 target not explicitly stated in table). - Data sources noted: 2004 Report on the MDGs, 2009 population census, and 2010 ILAP, 2010 MDG-WSSD plan. Footnotes: (1) Data for 2002; (2) Data for 1990. - Education sector planned measures to reach MDG goal 2: - Mass enrolment of children in the first year of primary school. - Construction and outfitting of classrooms. - Recruitment of sufficient quality and quantity of teachers. - Training and retraining of teachers and instructors. - Complementary measures to retain students until completion. - Government commitments and targets: - Reduce repeater rate to 10 percent by 2015. - Reduce multi-classes from 71 percent to 25 percent by 2015. - Reduce student/teacher ratio from 48 to 44:1 by 2015. - Achieve a 100-percent primary school graduation rate. - Achieve a 10-percent preschool enrolment rate. - Build the maximum number of school infrastructures. - Health sector programs and targets: - Second National Health Development Plan (PNDS) 2008-2017 aligns with MDGs. - National programs: National Anti-Malaria Program (PNLP); National Program to Combat AIDS (PNLS); National Visual Health Program; National Program to Combat Leprosy and Tuberculosis; Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI); National Family Health Program. - Operational measures to reduce maternal and child mortality: implement guidelines and measures identified in the April 2010 Operational Plan to ramp up high-impact interventions. - HIV/AIDS specific objectives for 2015: - Increase proportion of sexually active population that knows its HIV status from 2 to 6 percent by 2015. - Guarantee that 15-32 percent of pregnant women receive the integrated vertical transmission prevention package at prenatal consultations. - Guarantee that blood transfusions are 100-percent safe and up to standard by 2015. - Guarantee access to antiretroviral and opportunistic infection treatments for 8-43 percent of persons living with HIV (PLHIV) by 2015. - Required actions for implementation: - Communication with vulnerable groups for behavioral change. - Implementation of plan to expand the CDV (Voluntary Screening Center). - Implementation of the Integrated PMTCT Program. - Promotion of communication for change activities targeting blood donors. - Consolidation of services offered by antiretroviral treatment centers. _Excerpted from: 1.5 Analysis of poverty and MDG trends (chapter text)._ ### 65.9 percent in 2008 and 64.1 percent in 2010; (v) expanding and improving the access to ### Guinea-Bissau: Assessment and Preparation of the Second PRSP (excerpts) ### Evaluation of outcomes under the first PRSP and contextual constraints - Key reported figures: - "65.9 percent in 2008 and 64.1 percent in 2010." - Infant mortality: "122 per thousand in 2004 to 104.5 in 2008." - Maternal mortality per 100,000 live births: "818 in 2004, to 800 in 2006, and 752 in 2008." - In 2009, the country spent "nearly US$50 million on food imports and over US$30 million in petroleum products, compared to US$30 million and US$22 million, respectively, in 2007." - Export receipts decreased "10 percent, despite a 30 percent increase in the exported volume of cashew nuts." - Principal constraints and adverse factors that limited achievement: - Political, institutional, and security fragility stemming from the 1998/1999 armed conflict, recurrent military interference, and growing influence of international drug trafficking and organized crime. - Limited institutional capacity and human resources for planning and implementing development policies and programs. - Limited capacity to incorporate the gender dimension into planning, resulting in women’s strategic needs being insufficiently reflected. - External shocks: global oil, food, and economic crises magnified by heavy dependence on cashew. - Weak government financial capacity and continued dependence on foreign aid to finance public expenditure, including operating expenses. - Debt service burden; decision point under the HIPC Initiative reached in 2000 and completion point achieved in late 2010. - Achievements and improvements cited: - Stabilizing the macroeconomic framework and implementing ambitious reforms in public financial management and public administration, leading to a new three-year IMF program in 2010. - Improving key education and health indicators. - Start of several partner-supported projects that may help reverse trends and foster economic growth and MDG progress. - Public financial management reforms: new nomenclature aligned with WAEMU directives adopted by Council of Ministers (August 2008) and translated into Portuguese. - Creation in March 2008 of an IT department in the Ministry of Finance and deployment of an integrated public financial management system (SIGFIP); production, starting in 2009, of quarterly reports on national budget execution. - Implementation of a procurement plan in five ministries (Education, Health, Finance, Agriculture, and Infrastructure); considerable reduction in clearing and arrears. - Centralization of revenues at the Treasury via creation of a single account at the BCEAO. - Ministry of Finance’s Research Department benefited from technical assistance and training; improvements in preparing economic analysis notes and the Table of State Financial Operations (TOFE). - Creation of a debt monitoring committee for domestic debt audits and rollout of an external debt management system (SYGADE) in 2010. ### Lessons learned from PRSP I (summarized) - Very optimistic assumptions and very ambitious goals: - PRSP assumed "annual economic growth around 5 percent" and planned public investments to represent "at least 20 percent of GDP" without alternative scenarios or contingency measures. - Underestimated risks: - Insufficient identification of constraints linked to drug trafficking and organized crime; failure to explicitly incorporate these risks into PRSP I. - Poor ranking of priorities: - Numerous priorities not properly ranked; new PRSP will use the Plan of Priority Actions (PPA) to make the strategy operational and clarify hierarchy. - Outcome indicators: - Indicators were "not sufficiently precise and measurable"; second PRSP will define appropriate, easily measurable indicators. - Absence of objective-based budgeting: - PRSP remained disconnected from the National Budget; implementation of the medium term expenditure framework (MTEF) and program-based budget intended to address this. - Unpredictability, poor absorption capacity and lack of coordination of aid: - Unpredictable aid, multiplicity of procedures, poor aid absorption capacity, institutional instability, insufficient human resources, poor organization and coordination, and lack of country ownership will be addressed in the second PRSP. - Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) failures: - M&E mechanism was not made operational; low quality and scarce human resources for data production and dissemination; lack of effective coordination among ministries and partners. - Lack of attention to economic growth and living conditions: - Little attention given to promoting economic growth and developing basic social sectors; preference for actions addressing political instability and poor governance. - Poor integration of cross-cutting issues: - HIV/AIDS, environmental protection, emergency preparedness and response, youth and gender issues were insufficiently addressed. - Late adherence to trade integration initiatives: - Guinea-Bissau’s late adherence to the Trade Integration Program initiative (CIR) in 2007 and absence of a DTIS at PRSP I preparation. - Low priority on growth-conducive areas: - Trade-related issues and export diversification received low priority. - Lack of country ownership: - Degree of country ownership and public engagement with PRSP I was insufficient; limited platforms for dialogue and dissemination across political, military, civil society, local government, religious leaders, and media. ### Orientation and objectives of the second PRSP - Strategic focus and intended corrective measures: - Gradual ownership of a holistic, participatory strategic approach to poverty reduction involving all stakeholders. - Integration of Guinea-Bissau’s international and continental commitments: MDGs, CEDAW, the ACHPRs Protocol on the Rights of Women, and the Action Plan for Health and Sexual and Reproductive Rights. - Boost pro-poor economic growth and diversify the production base through actions in agriculture, livestock, fisheries, development of manufacturing and trade activities. - Improve national and local governance within a national strategy to promote peace and economic development. - Sectoral and geographical orientation of actions across core PRSP areas. - Reduction of disparities between men and women and elimination of discrimination and inequity toward women. - Meaningful linkage between second PRSP priorities and the National Budget via the MTEF and program-based budgets for strategic sectors (agriculture and social sectors). - Establish a dynamic, comprehensive, and efficient monitoring and evaluation mechanism providing information broken down by sector, geographical area, gender, etc., harmonized and easy to use. ### Forward-looking vision: Guinea-Bissau 2025 and MDGs to 2020 - Guinea-Bissau 2025 aspirations (as adopted in 1996 "Guiné-Bissau 2025 Djitu ten"): - A well-governed country with social peace and transparent separation of powers. - An economically strong, regionally integrated country with sustainable population growth consistent with economic growth. - Reduced social inequality and poverty through improved income redistribution. - Equal rights and opportunities for men and women recognized and enforced. - A democratic country with people’s participation in public affairs as cornerstone of rule of law. - Second PRSP period: 2011–2015 objectives summarized as: - Reducing poverty by strengthening the rule of law, increasing economic growth and achieving the MDGs. - MDGs outlook and interim strategy: - Guinea-Bissau is "poorly poised to meet the MDGs by 2015" and intends to postpone achievement of the MDGs to 2020 while adopting strategies to accelerate certain MDGs by 2015. - Immediate gain sectors prioritized for accelerated actions: Primary and secondary education; Health and HIV/AIDS; Water and sanitation; Development of agriculture and promotion of local products for food security. - Cost assessment and financing needs (first findings): - Overall assessed financial effort required: "US$210 per capita per year, that is, three times the amount currently allocated to sectoral activities of the MDGs." - Education sector: "about US$42 million a year" needed at the level of primary education to meet universal primary education (3rd MDG), requiring "massive enrollment in first grade, or about 70,000 children on average, 1,500 teachers a year, and building nearly 800 new classrooms on average." - Health sector resources needed to achieve the MDGs by 2015: "about US$409 million, that is US$40.62 per person per year." - Composition of direct health costs: Child health and HIV/AIDS "44 percent" of direct costs; maternal health "6 percent"; malaria "5 percent"; tuberculosis "less than 1 percent." - Required government actions and conditions: - Efficient public spending effort and increase in national budget own revenues. - Strong advocacy to mobilize additional resources; channel official development assistance toward strategic sectors to alleviate bottlenecks hindering growth and structural transformation. - Necessary conditions for a qualitative leap: i) consistent and well-coordinated sectoral policies and programs; ii) a budgetary allocation system based on the MDGs; iii) increased responsibility of local authorities and grassroots communities in providing and managing basic infrastructure; iv) better prepared institutional and human capacities to implement and monitor sectoral policies and take into account the gender dimension; and v) greater involvement of civil society in all stages of the MDGs. ### Methodology and participatory PRSP preparation process (2010–2011) - Inclusion and process improvements: - Preparation sought broad participation of all development stakeholders and specific efforts to involve women at all stages. - Chronology of key steps: 1. Official launch of the process on "April 23, 2010" under the auspices of the Prime Minister; publication of the first PRSP monitoring and evaluation report prepared in 2009. 2. Seminar to validate and adopt methodological documents on "May 13–14, 2010"; 36 participants (six female); validation of organizational framework. 3. Establishment of nine thematic working groups (May–September 2010) covering: - (1) reform of the defense and security sector; - (2) reform of the public administration, institutional capacity and decentralization; - (3) agriculture and food security; - (4) macroeconomic management and growth-generating sectors; - (5) population, human capital and social sectors; - (6) poverty, vulnerability and inequality; - (7) economic infrastructure, energy and telecommunications; - (8) private sector and employment; - (9) monitoring and evaluation. - One group (the sixth) chaired by the Ministry of Women overseeing the Institute for Women and Children (IMC). - Women’s participation in working groups was "13.6 percent," an improvement over the first PRSP. - Outputs of thematic groups: - Diagnostic of themes, identification of bottlenecks, and strategies to buttress the core areas of the second PRSP. *Source: Excerpts from the Second PRSP preparatory documentation (Guinea-Bissau) as presented in the provided content unit.* ### 4. Specific seminars on various themes ### 4. Specific seminars on various themes ### Seminars and capacity building - Four specific seminars were held between July and December 2010 to train staff involved in the second PRSP preparation on: HIV/AIDS, gender, environment, monitoring and evaluation, and human rights. - Purpose: remedy the first PRSP’s poor approach to cross-cutting issues. ### Regional and national consultations - Two regional consultations in each of the eight regions and two national consultations were conducted between October 2010 and May 2011. - Aims: - Hear aspirations of the populations and better frame their concerns. - Ensure greater ownership of strategy content. - Provide forums for private sector and civil society to express views and expectations on partnerships with government. - Greater participation of women improved understanding of needs, priorities and different perspectives of men and women regarding poverty reduction and development planning. ### Governance of the PRSP preparation process - Technical Committee - Composed of representatives from government, private sector, and development partners. - Met in three sessions to assess successive versions of the second PRSP, including final validation before presentation to the Steering Committee. - Steering Committee - Chaired by the Prime Minister; highest-level body in PRSP preparation and validation, including government, other state institutions, private sector, civil society and development partners. - Met in two sessions: - November 8, 2010: assess progress in preparation of the second PRSP; second report on implementation of the first PRSP presented. - May 2011: final validation of the document. ### Evidence base and coordination - The second PRSP synthesis, analysis and harmonization drew on: - Sectoral Plans (Health, Education, Planning, MDGs/WSDD 2010, etc.). - Statistical operations: (i) General Population and Housing Census – RGPH (2009); (ii) Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, MICS4/IDS (2010); (iii) second Rapid Poverty Assessment Survey – ILAP II (2010); (iv) national institutional capacities in gender – IMC (2008); (v) investigation of fairness and equality in gender – INEP (2010). - Studies prepared for the second PRSP: (i) origins of economic growth (2010); (ii) non-monetary poverty; (iii) assessment of needs and costs to achieve the MDGs. - Other validated studies: Diagnostic Trade Integration Study – DTIS (2009); National Agriculture Investment Plan – NAIP (2010). - Coordination with subregional policy orientation tables and other framework documents agreed with development partners. ### Strategic guidelines and baseline for programming - Time horizon: five years; operational framework: MTEF and program-based budgeting. - A new monitoring and evaluation mechanism to be introduced, articulated with monitoring of program-based budgets. - Recent planning and programming exercises launched by government include: - Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS); - National Agriculture Investment Plan (NAIP); - Second National Health Development Plan (NHDP II) for National Health for 2008–2017; - National Strategy to Combat HIV/AIDS; - Study on the origins of economic growth, conducted in 2010; - National Gender Strategy (being finalized); - Education Sector Policy Paper, 2009–2020; - Three-Year Plan for the Development of Education, covering 2011–2013; - Master Plan for Water and Sanitation, 2010–2020; - Multiyear programming tools under development (MTEF, program-based budget; etc.); - Platform for managing official development assistance (being implemented). - Climate change: planning exercises incorporate climate change risks and adaptation strategies to increase resilience. ### Objectives (main objectives of the second PRSP) - Overarching aim: achieve significant reductions in poverty in its many dimensions, create more opportunities for income and employment, improve access to quality basic public services under strengthened rule of law. - Specific objectives (verbatim): i. Reducing the incidence of poverty at the national level from 69.3 percent in 2010 to 59 percent by 2015 and extreme poverty from 33 percent to 20 percent over the same period, taking into account the disparities between men and women; ii. Reducing the rate of food insecurity from 32 percent to 16 percent by 2015; iii. Attaining an annual economic growth rate of 4.3 percent in 2011, 4.5 percent in 2012, and 5 percent on average between 2013 and 2015; iv. Stabilizing the country’s security by implementing a harmonized reform of Defense and Security Forces, reducing their workforce to (3,430), improving their intervention capacity, supporting the reassignment and reintegration of separated staff (2,300 on their way to retirement) and about 1000 [ineligible] individuals, and demobilizing and reintegrated personnel into civilian life; v. Reducing the wage bill vis-à-vis fiscal revenues from 63 percent in 2010 to 59 percent by 2015; vi. Reducing public service costs by restructuring and modernizing public institutions, including those related to Defense and Security Forces; vii. Eliminating structural inequalities between men and women; viii. Achieving universal primary education by 2015; ix. Reducing the rate of infant and child mortality, respectively, from 113 and 158 per thousand live births in 2010 to 90 and 120 per thousand births by 2015; x. Reducing the maternal mortality ratio from 800 to 600 per 100 thousand births between 2010 and 2015; xi. Reducing the prevalence of HIV/AIDS from 7.8 percent to 5.9 percent between 2010 and 2015; xii. Expanding access to safe drinking water, attaining an access rate of 65 percent by 2015 compared to 40 percent in 2010; xiii. Providing the country with operational legal and judicial institutions, accessible to the public at central and regional level; xiv. Transforming international and continental commitments ratified by Guinea-Bissau into national law with a view to their enforcement; xv. Ensuring 60-percent country-wide electricity coverage and 80-percent coverage in urban areas; xvi. Providing the country with programs and projects to enhance ecosystem services in local communities and strengthen their ability to adapt to the effects of climate change; xvii. Providing the country with an effective Territorial Management Plan in line with WAEMU’s requirements and an operational national geographical information system; xviii. Increasing investment in sustainable land management by adopting a Strategic Investment Plan for the sector, aimed at addressing the increasing degradation of land, including flora, fauna and water resources; xix. Diversifying exports with a view to reducing vulnerability and improving food security; xx. Increase the coverage of protected areas under improved management. ### Baselines and indicators (selected figures extracted from Table 6) - Monetary poverty and food security - Incidence of monetary poverty (%) — Status in 2010: 69.3; Status in 2015: 59.0 - Incidence of monetary poverty in rural areas — Status in 2010: 79.5; Status in 2015: 68.0 - Malnutrition rate — Status in 2010: 32% ; Status in 2015: 16% - Growth - Real GDP growth rate (%, 2011–2015 average) — Status in 2010: 3.5 ; Status in 2015: 5 - GDP per capita growth rate (%) — Status in 2010: 1 ; Status in 2015: 2.7 - Macroeconomic stabilization - Fiscal burden (%, 2011–2015 average) — Status in 2010: 6.7 ; Status in 2015: 10 - Inflation rate (%, 2011–2015 average) — Status in 2010: 2.3 ; Status in 2015: 3 - Fiscal balance, including grants (% of GDP) — Status in 2010: -2.9 ; Status in 2015: 0 - Wage bill/fiscal revenues — Status in 2010: 63.2 ; Status in 2015: 40 - Education - Net primary-education enrollment rate (%) — Status in 2010: 67.4 ; Status in 2015: 100 - Net secondary-education enrollment rate (%) — Status in 2010: 23.5 ; Status in 2015: 40 - Adult illiteracy rate (> 15 year-olds) (%) — Women Status in 2010: 64.1 ; Men Status in 2010: 47.9 ; Women Status in 2015: 43 ; Men Status in 2015: 27 - Gender - Ratio of girls to boys in primary education — Status in 2010: 0.93 ; Status in 2015: 0.98 - Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament — Status in 2010: 10 ; Status in 2015: 30 - Proportion of girls victims of gender-based violence (all types), who filed a complaint with a competent authority — Status in 2010: 28.6 ; Status in 2015: 50 - Health - Infant mortality rate (%) — Status in 2010: 103 ; Status in 2015: 80 - Infant and child mortality rate (%) — Status in 2010: 158 ; Status in 2015: 110 - Maternal mortality rate (%) — Status in 2010: 800 ; Status in 2015: 600 - Female genital mutilation rate (0–14 years of age) — Status in 2010: 38.7 ; Status in 2015: 28 - Drinking water and sanitation - Access to drinking water at the national level (%) — Status in 2010: 40 ; Status in 2015: 65 - Access to drinking water in urban areas (%) — Status in 2010: 53 ; Status in 2015: 75 - Access to drinking water in rural areas (%) — Status in 2010: 40 ; Status in 2015: 55 - Percentage of households with toilet facilities in urban areas — Status in 2010: 35 ; Status in 2015: 50 - Percentage of households with toilet facilities in rural areas — Status in 2010: 5 ; Status in 2015: 25 - HIV/AIDS - HIV prevalence rate, 15–44 years of age (%) — Status in 2010: 2.6 ; Status in 2015: 1.0 - Proportion of orphans and vulnerable children identified and under a program — Status in 2015: 60 - Environment - Ration of protected areas (%) — Status in 2010: ... ; Status in 2015: ... ### Strategic core areas (four core areas chosen) - Core area 1: Strengthen the rule of law and republican institutions - Focus: government capacity building, separation of powers, security, defense and security sector reforms, human rights integration into legal texts and practice, access to justice for women and youth, resources for judiciary/prison systems, public administration reform, decentralization and local development. - Challenges for 2015 include: i) downsize functions of administrative apparatus and review size of public administration; ii) strengthen institutional capacity; iii) improve human resources management. - Core area 2: Ensure a stable, stimulating macroeconomic environment - Priorities: - Improve macroeconomic fundamentals and public finance management (tax and customs regime, increase fiscal revenues and the tax burden, contain public spending), migration to MTEF, reform statistical system. - Promote private sector development: i) improve legal and administrative framework for business; ii) develop financial system with attention to gender differences; iii) develop public-private partnerships for economic services (port, airport, urban development). - Encourage private sector investment in low-carbon energy, particularly decentralized renewable energy. - Core area 3: Promote inclusive, sustainable economic development - Priorities: - Support development of promising productive sectors (agriculture, fisheries, livestock, tourism) including processing industries for local products. - Speed up development of basic economic infrastructure (energy, transport) with environmental and climate-change considerations; prioritize low greenhouse-gas-emission solutions and access mitigation finance. - Foster employment, particularly youth, through national employment and vocational training policy and targeted multiyear action plan; strengthen vocational training; implement highly labor-intensive approach (HIMO) for urban works and road maintenance. - Develop institutional, technical, and financial capacities for climate-related disaster response and incorporate climate risks into policies, planning and investment decisions. - Core area 4: Raise the level of human capital development - Priorities: - Improve education and health systems and literacy rates to meet MDGs (enrollment rate of 100 percent and gender parity in primary and secondary education; full vaccination coverage and reduced maternal mortality). - Improve access to drinking water and sanitation, especially in rural areas; integrate domestic waste management into urban development programs; revitalize housing sector in large urban centers. - Promote gender equality to reduce inequalities in all areas, implement the 3rd MDG, CEDAW principles, Security Council Resolutions 1325 and 1820, and the Additional Protocol to the ACHPR; improve women’s access to basic services, economic opportunities and decision-making; enhance legal status and rights; combat gender-based violence (GBV). *Source: _cr11353 - 4. Specific seminars on various themes* ### 1. Adopting a stance geared toward development under the rule of law ### 1. Adopting a stance geared toward development under the rule of law ### Development stance: lessons from PRSP1 and vision for PRSP2 - Peace, development and the law are the cornerstones of the second PRSP. - The ILAP/2010 found that poverty had worsened, affecting two thirds of the population, particularly the female population. - The first PRSP placed much emphasis on governance and security to the detriment of development priorities. - PRSP2 shifts to a development perspective that: - Provides support to productive sectors and infrastructure in the context of sustainability; - Treats peace, security and legal rights as preconditions for development. - Forward-looking planning instruments: - Guinea-Bissau’s 2025 Forward-Looking View; - Sectoral plans and MTEF under development to provide a coherent framework for priority sequencing of poverty-reducing policies and programs in the short, medium and long term. - PRSP2 guidelines should reflect an ambitious vision of high impact growth to create jobs and a community of small and medium enterprises. ### Respect for and promotion of human rights - Close link between poverty reduction, development and human rights: economic development that respects social and economic rights is likely to lift people out of poverty and insecurity. - Human development aims at improving welfare and ensuring full respect for human dignity. - Poverty denies human rights and severely limits the scope of freedoms of the poorest citizens. - Policy direction: - Human rights must be developed across all levels to reverse current trends and ensure each individual enjoys economic, social and legal rights. ### Gender dimension - Evaluation of PRSP1 showed limited effects from failing to consider gender issues. - Studies over the past five years enabled PRSP2 to identify sex differences and better reflect women’s contribution to economic growth, social development and governance. - Two-level approach: - Cross-cutting level; - Sectoral level. - Objectives for gender mainstreaming: - (i) combating all forms of discrimination against women; - (ii) equitable access to employment and income opportunities; - (iii) improving access to leadership and decision-making positions. - Constitutional commitment: men and women “are equal before the law in all levels of political, economic, social and cultural life” as specified in Article 25 of our Constitution. ### Capacity building - PRSP1 lessons: poor performance of management structures due to insufficient ownership of programs and lack of professional skills and support. - Capacity building is holistic, integrating institutional dimension, training, professional attitudes and practices, logistics, and motivation. - Current partner support (public administration, National School of Public Administration – ENA, etc.) is a primary element of a broader capacity building strategy for PRSP2. - Government objectives for capacity building: - Raising the level of human capital development through massive investment in the educational and health systems; - Seizing opportunities from Guinea-Bissau’s participation in the WAEMU to exchange experiences and certain economic benefits; - Strengthening the capacity for coordination of official development assistance; - Developing vocational training and higher education centers; - Strengthening the national statistical system to attain four goals: monitor poverty and social development, develop policies for setting quantitative targets, make projections and identify progress made, and follow up on policy implementation. ### Climate change and sustainable development - Climate change recognized as one of the most important development challenges of the 21st century. - IPCC finding cited: the world is currently facing an increase in average temperatures that will reach 2°C in 2050. - Human Development Report 2007/2008: some Millennium Development Goals, including poverty reduction, will be compromised because of five human development factors affected by climate change (decline in agricultural productivity, increased water insecurity, exposure to extreme weather events/conditions, disruption of ecosystems and increased health risks). - Guinea-Bissau’s PANA: gradual increases in temperature and reductions in precipitation will significantly reduce agricultural productivity and exacerbate water shortages. - Priority adaptation/mitigation initiatives: - Developing new, more resistant crops; - Changing agricultural systems to increase resiliency to climate change; - Protecting coastal ecosystems; - Mainstreaming climate change into local development plans, forest management and land use plans, and development policies and strategies. - Strategic approach: integrate climate-related development policies across national, regional, and local planning; involve all sectors; integrate biodiversity conservation and sustainable management of land and water. ### New partnership with technical and financial partners - PRSP2 success requires a new partnership based on open and fair policy dialogue and Paris Declaration principles. - Government responsibility: defining development strategies and policies. - Partners’ responsibility: committing support for implementation. - Partnership prerequisites: affirmation of the rule of law, security, professionalism and effectiveness of public administration; credible national leadership; new governance practices; implementation of PRSP2 objectives. - Concerns to be taken into account: - Ensuring consistency between PRSP2 and choices confirmed in the National Aid Policy Document (being finalized); - Reaffirming alignment of partners’ interventions with PRSP2 objectives; - Reaffirming alignment of development partners, subject to principles of the fragile situation; - Strengthening inclusive participation of different governmental and nongovernmental players in the process of development and development aid. ### Strategic core area I: Strengthen the rule of law and republican institutions - Context and challenge: - Successive attempts upon constitutional order, crisis in the justice system, failures in public order and security, and failure of military power to submit to civilian rule have weakened government authority, democracy, rule of law and republican institutions. - Emergence of drug trafficking and organized crime poses threats to democracy, governance, security, the country’s external image and mobilization of development partnerships. - Priority: consolidate peace and stability and lay foundations for sustainable development and welfare for all. - Six key focus areas: - (i) reform of the defense and security sector; - (ii) reform of the justice system and affirmation of the rule of law; - (iii) capacity building at the National Assembly as a legislative and control body; - (iv) fostering reconciliation and national dialogue; - (v) promoting participatory development through decentralization and local development; - (vi) emergency prevention and management. #### 1. Reform of the defense and security sector - Problem drivers: - Repeated interference by Defense and Security Forces contributed to political instability and worsening security. - Historical ties between political system and armed forces; failure to transform into truly civilian forces. - Structural weaknesses: (i) an inversion of the armed forces pyramid; (ii) inadequate levels of training; (iii) a deficient legal and regulatory framework governing armed forces operations; (iv) strong resistance to change, innovation and the application of law. - Security forces share these weaknesses. - Constraints to reform: - Resistance to reform within Defense and Security Forces; - Weak organizational and operational capacities within the public sector; - Inadequate levels of training; - Proliferation of small arms and light weapons; - Precarious living conditions within Defense and Security Forces; - Weak financial capacity of the state. - Reform goals: - (i) modernizing the sector by improving the legal framework and building material and human capacities; - (ii) creating defense and security republican institutions that are law-abiding and respectful of public service and citizenship. - Strategic components: - Downsizing the Defense and Security Forces in light of actual needs and economic capacities of the country; - Modernizing defense and security; - Safeguarding the dignity of homeland freedom fighters (HFF); - Participating in consolidation of subregional security. - Seven lines of action: 1. Implementation of a regulatory framework for the Defense and Security Forces; 2. Implementation of the new legal framework to make operational the laws adopted by the People’s National Assembly: (i) Law on Compulsory Military Service; (ii) Basic Organic Law of the Organization of the Armed Forces; (iii) Law on National Defense and the Armed Forces; (iv) Law on the Right to National Defense and Armed Forces; and (iv) Statutory Regime of the Armed Forces. 3. Demobilization and recruitment to downsize the armed forces based on its actual capabilities and national development challenges; 4. Professionalization of the Defense and Security Forces by increasing levels of education and training (continued education, requirement for higher education for new recruits), particularly to ensure public order, the security of people and goods, and the fight against drug trafficking and organized crime across the country; 5. Improving living conditions of soldiers in the barracks and modernizing infrastructure and equipment; for paramilitaries, rehabilitating and equipping police stations and security forces buildings; 6. Implementing options for following the military, demobilized agents (men and women) separated the Defense and Security Forces (access to the Pension Fund; establishment and operation of a pension fund for the Defense and Security Forces, rehabilitation and socioeconomic reintegration of demobilized personnel and of those who are yet to reach retirement age); 7. Improving living conditions and status of military women and of those integrated in the police force, so that they may in practice enjoy the same rights as men to protection against gender-based violence at work. - Implementation progress to date: - Biometric census of the military in 2008; - Census of homeland freedom fighters and of security forces in 2009; - Assessment of needs for rehabilitation of 33 barracks in 11 military installations. - Actions regarding homeland freedom fighters (HFF): 1) Improving the living conditions of the HFF by better matching services to the economic and social situation. 2) Adopting a new pension scale to end precarious material condition of the HFF, honor their service to the country, and contribute to social justice. 3) Implementing a comprehensive and realistic program of rehabilitation of HFF through engagement and accountability of beneficiaries and allocation of a sufficiently attractive and compensatory allowance to ensure successful economic and social reintegration; include capacity building of former fighters. - Pension example from source: - A retired captain earns CFAF 16,370, while his immediate superior, a retired major, earns CFAF 192,152, or about 12 times more. - About 97 percent of the HFF receives a pension of less than CFCF 16,000. - Program components to be part of implementation: 1. An operating plan for reform of the defense and security sector, coordinated with roadmap orientations of Heads of the General Staffs of ECOWAS and CPLP nations; 2. A revised regulatory framework for the Defense and Security Forces; 3. Choices on retirement/pension fund consistent with retirement under the public administration regime or economic reintegration, coordinated with economic development objectives. - Subregional security participation: support peacekeeping efforts (creation of a peacekeeping battalion); promote exchanges between security and defense forces under UN Security Council Resolution 1325. - Expected contributions of reform: 1) Political stability and security of the country; 2) Structural reform of public institutions; 3) Providing the country with quality government agencies capable of combating national and regional crime. #### 2. Combating proliferation of small arms and light weapons and drug trafficking - Regional context: insecurity and organized crime have reached unsustainable levels in West Africa, boosted by armed conflict, trafficking of small arms and light weapons, and weaknesses of poorly trained and insufficiently equipped public institutions. - Guinea-Bissau vulnerabilities: - Difficulties in controlling borders; - Strategic position close to Europe and porous coast (a maze of islands) make it attractive to criminal organizations for storage and transport of illegal products, particularly drug trafficking. - Networks are often foreign and well-resourced, able to destabilize fragile government institutions. - Government actions to date: - Institutionalized the National Commission to Combat the Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons in 2006; - Prepared and introduced a plan to combat drugs in 2007. - Subregional measures: ECOWAS “Convention on Small Arms and Light Weapons in the ECOWAS zone” (prohibits arms transfers to member countries, strengthens law enforcement and peacekeeping participation, bans transfers of weapons to non-governmental organizations without approval of importing country). - Assessment: results so far are mixed. - Needed interventions: - National level: capacity building through reform of legislation; reorganization, training and equipping of security services, including the government information service. - Subregional/international level: reinforce regional and international cooperation (sharing information and experiences, developing subregional approaches to border control). - Resource implication: sustained international financial and technical assistance required given the country’s limited resources. *Source: _cr11353 - 1. Adopting a stance geared toward development under the rule of law* ### 3. Promoting human rights ### 3. Promoting human rights ### Promoting human rights — planned measures and actions - Revising the By-laws of the National Commission on Human Rights, adapting them to the Paris Principles as guidelines for implementation and operation of the national human rights body for monitoring, early warning, counseling, research, advocacy and promotion of human rights. - Introducing a national policy for the promotion and protection of human rights and citizenship to harmonize public policies geared toward: (i) developing integrated strategies and sectoral plans to promote human rights; and (ii) promoting the fundamental rights of vulnerable groups, women, children and people with disabilities. - Implementing measures to fight official lawlessness and promote a culture of dialogue and tolerance through the introduction of human rights in the national educational system. - Reforming the welfare and social security system to direct greater attention to the most vulnerable, including by providing social support, assistance and protection, and monitoring populations and their efforts to reduce poverty and social exclusion. - Ratifying international conventions related to human rights, including the Rome Statute, which governs the International Criminal Court, and a specific piece of legislation to protect human rights in accordance with Resolution No. 53/144 of December 9, 1998 of the UN General Assembly. - Reaffirming and aligning with international human rights instruments through their implementation or incorporation into national legislation, and intensifying efforts to submit overdue reports to specialized agencies. - Designing a strategy to eliminate discriminatory practices and cultural stereotypes, repeal all discriminatory laws against women, and introduce a law to penalize female genital mutilation and trafficking in persons, particularly women and children. - Intensifying efforts to reform the justice sector with a particular focus on humanization of the prison system, separation of prisoners, and introduction of legislation requiring full implementation of the infrastructure and justice system for minors, in accordance with the provisions of the Convention on the Rights of the Child. - Revising national legislation to harmonize national legal standards with international standards on human rights, particularly the Constitution. ### Strengthening justice and the rule of law — context and objectives - Identified problems: precarious living and working conditions of judges; high costs of access to justice for the poor; lack of respect for professional ethics; challenges against Judiciary decisions causing a sense of impunity and distrust. - Constraints on women’s access to justice: early and forced marriages, female circumcision, domestic violence; difficulty enforcing sentences; lack of access to information on appeals; difficult access to judiciary bodies; insufficient facilities to accommodate and protect women in distress. - These weaknesses contribute to lack of respect for basic civil, economic and social rights in Guinea-Bissau. - Justice sector reform is treated as a priority under the second PRSP and is positioned to pave the way for sustainable economic and social development. - The government introduced in 2010 a new national policy for the justice sector for the period 2010–2015, with a three-year action plan. The national strategy defines the sector’s strategic mission as guaranteeing democracy and the rule of law, social and political peace, and preservation of constitutional values. - Five-year sector goal: create adequate infrastructure to meet society’s demands by providing qualified legal professionals and enabling universal access to justice and citizenship. - Conditions required: (i) sound legal training of legal system participants; (ii) an active civil society; (iii) political will to improve the system. ### Strengthening justice and the rule of law — recommended strategies - Establishing an adequate infrastructure to perform institutional functions. - Conducting a coherent legislative reform and enacting legislation. - Professional training of all participants in the judicial system. - Promoting access to justice and citizenship. ### Justice reform focus areas (detailed) - Revising the legal and institutional framework to clarify roles and responsibilities of participants. - Rehabilitating and building adequate infrastructure and providing courts with necessary human resources to create a modern judicial system accessible to the population. - Establishing an adequate prison system by introducing an appropriate legislative and institutional framework, including infrastructure and personnel needed for effective operation. - Revising different codes (criminal, civil, etc.) to adapt them to ratified conventions, charters and resolutions. - Developing skills of justice personnel through training on national, regional, and international legal instruments, including those related to human rights. - Adapting the judicial system to the national context by considering the traditional system of conflict resolution, the population’s low level of education, and difficulties vulnerable people face accessing justice; addressing corruption, drug trafficking and organized crime. - Developing a training partnership with national and international institutions to train future judges, prosecutors, lawyers and other legal professionals. ### Capacity building at the People’s National Assembly — problems and measures - Problems identified: (i) meager qualifications of members of the National Assembly, including in specialized committees; (ii) insufficient financial and material resources. - Measures envisaged: - Redefining criteria for election to the office of member of the National Assembly, placing emphasis on the academic background of the candidate. - Strengthening the capacity of parliamentarians and specialized committees. - Strengthening the National Assembly’s administrative and financial management capacity to ensure greater independence and quality in the performance of their functions. - Laying the foundation for creating a state structure that represents local authorities at the national level. ### Civic participation, national dialogue and reconciliation — challenges and initiatives - Challenges: lack of dialogue, tolerance and understanding between major groups leading to social upheavals and violent conflicts; difficulties disclosing information on development and governance despite multiple media; insufficient resources for long-term efforts to ensure population’s access to the media. - Noted initiative: in August 2010 the Presidency of the Republic and Parliament launched a large-scale dissemination and sharing of information in the context of the national dialogue for reconciliation, involving all stakeholders, building on previous initiatives such as General States and Voice for Peace [Estados Gerais e a VOZ DI PAZ], which gathered over 6,000 participants. - Over the next five years the government intends to sustain and increase momentum by: - Promoting fora, mechanisms and opportunities for dialogue including at community level to build consensus around major national issues. - Promoting sound dialogue and concertation practices, including political exiles. - Building the capacity of governments, employers, trade unions, civil society and media to promote social dialogue and freedom of expression in a responsible and constructive manner. - Strengthening national capacities for managing and monitoring electoral processes and ensuring participation of civil society in preparation of national development strategies. - Strengthening national capacities for conflict prevention and management, particularly at the local level. - Promoting participation of women at all levels and bodies involved in making decisions relating to peace negotiations and conflict prevention and resolution. ### Public administration reform and modernization — core areas and outcomes - Reform must address: streamlining structures and staffing of the administration; improving effectiveness of public services. - Program launched in 2008 will be continued through three core areas: (1) downsizing state administrative functions and gradually adapting structure and size of public service; (2) building institutional and human capacity; (3) improving human resources management. ### Public administration reform — downsizing and savings - A biometric census of public servants held in 2009 determined the actual number of public servants as 22,236 and identified about 4,000 “ghost” workers. - Annual savings from removing “ghost” workers amount to nearly CFAF 2.5 billion, or about 12 percent of current expenditure. - Planned measures will focus on: (i) revising and improving the legal and regulatory framework of public administration; (ii) further disengagement of the state from productive and commercial activities; (iii) streamlining public service recruitment. ### Public administration reform — building institutional and human capacity - Actions include: - Revising the organic framework of government structures according to their missions. - Improving and modernizing working instruments and methods (clear mandates and responsibilities, introduction of performance evaluations, interconnection of government structures to facilitate information sharing and access to knowledge). - Promoting human resource development through training and skills enhancement while ensuring equity between the sexes. - Deconcentrating public services and providing means for effective field operation, including motivation to move qualified staff. ### Public administration reform — human resources management priorities - Goals for human resources policy and reform: - Recruiting on the basis of skills to match administration needs. - Introducing and effectively implementing a career plan for staff. - Introducing a transparent system of promotion based on merit. - Improving conditions and treatment of staff, including better salaries and the reorganization of the social security and pension regime. - Systematically observing gender equality across human resources policy dimensions. - HIV/AIDS strategy as part of HR policy with objectives: - (1) Reducing the spread of HIV/AIDS and mitigating its impact on people infected and affected. - (2) Improving the quality of life for people living with HIV/AIDS. - (3) Protecting the rights of people living with HIV (PLWHA), including fighting discrimination and prejudices associated with the HIV/AIDS pandemic and other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). ### Decentralization and Local Development — context and objectives - Administrative structure: Guinea-Bissau divided into eight administrative regions; the capital Bissau has special status; regions divided into sectors. Despite laws on decentralization, no local government headed by elected officials exists; administration remains under government employees and governors supervised by the Ministry of Territorial Administration. Traditional structures (régulos, Councils of Elders, village tabanca chiefs) remain central to local conflict resolution. - Government goal: promote development of local and regional organizations by revising 1995 texts and providing organizations with financial and human resources according to a realistic implementation strategy that accounts for institutional and financial capacities. - Decentralization is positioned as a key factor in improving basic public services, boosting local economies, coordinating public and private initiatives to create local wealth, employment and income opportunities, supporting the poverty reduction strategy and pursuit of the MDGs, regionalization of the MDGs, and emergence of regional development centers. ### Decentralization and Local Development — planned actions - Making the reform operational by establishing pilot communities before extending the process nationally. - Preparing and implementing a decentralization plan that accounts for needs in human, financial, and organizational resources, including holding the first local authority elections [eleições autárquicas]. - Strengthening local capacities for development planning and management with direct participation of communities; mobilizing decentralized/deconcentrated services and civil society organizations. - Implementing a decentralized financing mechanism at regional level to enable regions to prepare local development plans and acquire local programming and development management skills. - Implementing adequate financial management and control mechanisms at the local level (centralization of regional revenues at financial [offices]) to combat widespread corruption and improve transparency and accountability of local elected officials. - Mobilizing resources and holding the first municipal elections, ensuring conditions are in place for female candidacies. - Building national and regional capacities to provide support and advice to local organizations in different regions. - Strengthening local capacities for planning, natural resources and development management; updating and harmonizing official maps with traditional ones; engaging decentralized services and civil society organizations. - Developing legislative mechanisms to promote decentralized and community management of natural resources. - Establishing municipal police forces to control exploitation of natural resources based as much as possible on co-management principles. - Empowering local communities to promote and manage their natural resources. - Promoting local residents’ reserved right of access to natural resources. *Source: _cr11353 - 3. Promoting human rights* ### 9. Natural disaster risk prevention and management ### 9. Natural disaster risk prevention and management ### Vulnerability and recent impacts - Guinea-Bissau is vulnerable to: tropical storms, floods, locust attacks, droughts, coastal erosion, fires, etc. - Between 1987 and 2009: - droughts affected 132,000 people; - floods affected 1,750 people; - tropical cyclones caused 2,712 casualties. - Epidemics affected 105,380 people, causing 3,032 deaths. - Man-made accidents led to 7,000 casualties (OFDA/CRED). - A 2010 study on monetary and non-monetary poverty finds many people in very deep poverty living in conditions almost identical to those after natural disasters and/or epidemics. - Disasters often push families into poverty and negatively affect economic activities and the National Budget, at the expense of development efforts. - Capacity building for prevention, preparedness, response, and post-disaster rehabilitation and mitigation is a major concern for the second PRSP and will be largely conditional on external financial and technical assistance. ### National framework and institutional development - The national political, strategic, institutional and programmatic framework for disaster risk reduction (DRR) remains very weak. - In August 2009 a national committee was established to consider creation of a National Civil Protection Authority; the committee, co-chaired by the General Directorates of Geology and Mines and Energy, undertook: - preparing the basic law on the creation of a national civil protection service; - identifying, at a workshop, the principal disaster risks; - establishing ways to mobilize funds enabling the national protection authority to carry out its mandate. - Short run action: - The basic law must be submitted for approval and enactment by the People’s National Assembly by end-2011. - Subsequently, a national authority in charge of civil protection will be appointed to ensure national coordination of disaster risk management activities. - Medium run action: - Drafting and finalizing texts for implementation of the institutional framework at the national level. - Preparing a national strategy for disaster risk management accompanied by a multiyear program. ### Disaster risk reduction priorities and actions (five areas) - 1. Disaster risk reduction (national framework) - Strengthen national civil protection authority and legal basis. - Mobilize funds for the national protection authority’s mandate. - 2. Identify risks and take action - Improve information systems: national weather service and epidemic monitoring. - Conduct an in-depth vulnerability profile study scheduled for 2012. - Involve women to reflect specific risks, capacities, needs, priorities and perspectives. - Update study outcomes periodically to feed a dynamic disaster emergency database. - Long-term goal: put in place an early warning system accessible to communities, including vulnerable groups and women. - 3. Ensure risk understanding and awareness - Integrate the DRM dimension into basic education curriculum and training modules. - Create an information mechanism to raise awareness across at-risk communities. - Create a network of journalists specialized in DRM. - 4. Reduce the underlying risk factors - Main finding: vulnerability of housing. - Define and disseminate risk-reducing building standards, especially for the poorest. - Encourage access to safe housing through social housing programs that follow risk-reducing building standards. - Integrate DRM in land management, urban planning, and ban construction in areas underwater or prone to flooding. - 5. Prevention and action at all levels - Prepare a national contingency plan reflecting exposure to disaster risks by region. - Conduct simulation and feedback exercises (RTEX) to improve performance and operation. - Create a strategy and mechanism for rapid mobilization of resources in emergency situations. - Strengthen relief and rescue capacity of emergency teams (firemen). ### Cross-cutting implementation conditions - Implementation of the five areas of the Hyogo Framework for Action ratified by Guinea-Bissau is a focus. - For fragile countries like Guinea-Bissau, required actions will be essentially conditional on external financial and technical assistance. - Actions range from prevention to assistance to people affected. ### Linkages to broader PRSP objectives - Strengthening DRM capacities is explicitly integrated into the second PRSP as part of poverty reduction and resilience-building. --- ### 2.4.2 Core area II: Ensure a stable, stimulating macroeconomic environment - Evaluation of first PRSP found: - (i) the political and security climate was not conducive to reform implementation; - (ii) economic performance was limited (average annual growth of about 3 percent compared to a target of 5 percent) and largely dependent on the cashew sector; - (iv) the country is far from reaching the MDGs in 2015. - Government intentions and targets: - Raise economic growth rate to 5 percent on average between 2013 and 2015. - Diversify exports and reduce dependency on cashews. - Priorities: (i) consolidating macroeconomic stability; (ii) developing basic infrastructure, including energy; (iii) improving the business environment and promoting the private sector; (iv) supporting growth-generating sectors including agriculture, livestock, fisheries, industry and tourism. - Particular attention to development of the emerging mining sector. - Stabilization and capacity-building status and targets: - Progress in public financial management: improved revenue mobilization and expenditure control allowed reduction of the budget deficit and accumulated arrears. - Tax revenues remain below the target of 17 percent of GDP set in the context of the WAEMU convergence criteria. - National Budget heavily dependent on foreign aid. - Wage bill to own revenues ratio: - 75.6 percent in 2009 vis-à-vis 90.3 percent in 2006; - Standard set by WAEMU: ≤ 35 percent. - First-tier WAEMU criteria summarized: - (i) basic budget balance to GDP ratio ≥ 0 percent; - (ii) inflation below 3 percent; - (iii) nonaccumulation of domestic and external arrears by the government in the current period; - (iv) internal and external debt to GDP ratio ≤ 70 percent. - Second-tier WAEMU criteria summarized: - (i) wage bill ≤ 35 percent of fiscal revenues; - (ii) public investment financed by own resources ≥ 20 percent of fiscal revenues; - (iii) current external deficit (excluding grants) to GDP ratio ≤ 5 percent; - (iv) tax burden reaches at least 17 percent of GDP. - Government intends to keep: - budget deficit below 3 percent of GDP; - balance of payments current account deficit below 5 percent of GDP; - annual inflation below 3 percent. - Policies to achieve macroeconomic objectives: - Strengthen revenue mobilization. - Improve quality of public expenditure. - Promote foreign direct investment (FDI) and emigrant remittances by implementing new investment code and reinforcing licensing/formalization structures. - Mobilize external resources for investment needs and balance of payments support. - Capacity-building and planning tools to be developed: - Forecasting models and macroeconomic framework, Priority Action Plan (PPA), Public Investment Program (PIP). - Improve institutional framework and aid coordination in accordance with the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness. - Strengthen monitoring and evaluation of the PRSP, including indicators to better understand the situation of women and ensure their access to benefits. - Develop a system to monitor and evaluate performance of policies and strategies, including preparation and implementation of the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS). - Public financial management reforms and immediate measures: - Merging biometric census database of the Ministry of Civil Service with Ministry of Finance database. - Payment of public servants’ salaries in person in some ministries. - Implement public accounting system in accordance with SIGFIP. - Revenue mobilization measures (planned/underway): - Strict enforcement of tax and customs regime. - Broadening the tax base, including integrating real estate and property assessments or assigning DGCI role of registering property titles. - Streamlining and tracking tax and customs exemptions. - Centralizing collection at the DGCI. - Developing mechanisms to expedite IGV/value-added tax and ACI refunds. - Including tax issues in dialogue with the private sector. - Measures to improve quality and transparency of public spending: - Align budget to second PRSP priorities to reduce disparities and ensure gender equity. - Effectively implement the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF). - Improve management of public tenders and supervise exceptional budget execution procedures. - Publish regularly information on budget execution, management accounts, and National Budget Law. ### Business climate and private sector promotion - World Bank “Doing Business” rankings: - 173rd out of 175 in 2005/2006; - 181st out of 183 in 2008/2009 (2010 Report). - Constraints for investors: - Lack of information for new investors; - Complex, cumbersome procedures and high cost of setting and registering a business; - Multiplicity of institutions interfacing with the private sector. - Time and cost to establish a company: - 213 days on average; - 250 percent of GDP per capita. - Government actions to improve business climate: - Creation of a one-stop-shop Business Registration Center. - Creation of a court and a commercial arbitration center. - Legislative reforms under discussion: Labor Code, implementation of the Land Law, new Investment Code. - Priorities under the second PRSP for private sector: - Improve basic infrastructure—particularly energy and transport. - Reinforce legal framework and judicial system for private investment (new investment code, OHADA enforcement, updating Land Code, revising civil and commercial codes). - Simplify and streamline processes for business establishment (strengthen licensing/registering services, decentralize/privatize notary services). - Improve information systems between public administration and private sector (website for legislation dissemination, consultation framework). - Continue repaying domestic debt. - Strengthen financial system to support productive sector investments (update legislation on MFIs, capacity building, introduce new financing models, create SME support funds). - Apply trade policies harmonized with WAEMU directives; improve cross-border trade to combat illegal trafficking of cashew nuts and other products. - Skills and governance measures: - Build human resource skills: technical and vocational training and entrepreneurship development. - Intensify fight against corruption via information, awareness, reduction of opportunities for corruption, and legal action. - Emigration and remittances: - Institute for Supporting Emigrants (IAE) created to encourage and facilitate emigrants’ remittances and investments. - Measures: legal framework for transfers, streamline land access, facilitate building materials import, simplify business registration procedures. - Remittances: around CFAF 15 billion or 4% of GDP in 2008 (Balance of Payments data). - Corruption perception: - Guinea-Bissau ranked 154th place with 2.1 points in Transparency International CPI (latest report cited). - 2009: 158th place, 1.9 points. - Government target: attain a 2.5 index by 2015 through measures focused on corruption, money laundering, embezzlement and lack of transparency. - Governance reform actions envisaged: - Strengthen policymaking and strategic planning. - Reform legal and institutional planning framework. - Introduce ongoing collaboration mechanism with development partners for aid coordination. - Reorganize and strengthen the national statistical system. - Reorganize and strengthen the Court of Auditors and the Office for the Fight against Corruption. - Train members of the People’s National Assembly in public finance management. - Improve economic and financial management mechanisms across public administration institutions. *Source: _cr11353 - 9. Natural disaster risk prevention and management* ### 1. Support for growth-generating sectors ### 1. Support for growth-generating sectors ### Growth performance and objective - Real growth of Guinea-Bissau’s economy has varied between 4 percent and 1.5 percent in recent years, if taken into account a population growth rate of 2.5 percent per year. - The government’s benchmark objective is to attain a growth rate over 5 percent by 2015. - Factors noted as conducive to strong and sustainable growth: macroeconomic stability, improved conditions for private sector development, gradual restoring of confidence among domestic and foreign investors, and political will to push forward reforms in the public administration and in the Defense and Security Forces. - Concern that nearly two thirds of the population remain poor; strong, sustainable growth must have real effects on the poor by enabling stable jobs and money income. ### Pro-poor growth approaches - The strategy calls for growth that is "more pro-poor" and comprises two complementary approaches with particular attention to vulnerable groups, among which women: - First approach: involve poor farmers to create more wealth by establishing or strengthening promising activities or sectors, ensuring food security and diversification of production bases, and developing SMI/SME that can serve as intermediate networks for exports of cashew nuts. Required actions include expediting the process of securing land tenure and improving farmers’ access to production means such as credit, markets and training opportunities. - Second approach: a set of measures designed to develop urban economies in order to reduce urban poverty. ### Private sector, diversification and targeting priorities - Government will provide increased support to private sector development, with special emphasis on small and medium enterprises, including microenterprises that are on the edge of the informal sector. - Support applies to all productive activities: agriculture, livestock, fisheries, crafts, industry, and services, regardless of targeting the domestic, regional or international market. - To prioritize actions, the government will concentrate on targeted interventions in a limited number of sectors considered priorities, focusing on: - partnerships with the financial sector to support and stimulate the private sector; - mobilizing contributions from the Diaspora; - investing in infrastructure and vocational training. ### Priority sectors identified - Sectors identified after consultations and specific studies (DTIS, EPA, study on origins of economic growth): cashew sector, fisheries, tourism, and mining (emerging). - A simulation study revealed that all these sectors (except, for the time being, the emerging mining sector) have multiplier effects on household income and strong links with the rest of the economy. - The sectors considered strategic are listed as: - (i) cashew crop - ii) rice crop - iii) horticulture - iv) fisheries - v) tourism (at an infant stage) - and (vi) mining (emerging sector) ### Agri-food sector centrality and related activities - Development of the agri-food sector, with greater emphasis on cereals (including rice), cashew nuts, fisheries and livestock, should be at the heart of the development strategy. - Around this sector, activities will be carried out in tourism, transport, trade, construction and public works, and mines. - Expected outcomes: leveraging comparative advantages, increasing export and tourism receipts, enhancing food security and employment. - Strategy aims to buttress growth by priority investments in the rural sector, laying foundations for a "true green revolution" given untapped agro-pastoral potential. - Mining sector included to ensure socioeconomic impacts on local economies are more diffuse and sustainable. ### Social, environmental safeguards and climate change - Government will ensure social and environmental safeguard issues are integrated into all sectoral policies. - Challenges and problems posed by climate change will be integrated into investment programs and projects across sectors, particularly: rural sector (agriculture, livestock, forestry), fisheries, water resources, tourism, energy, housing, and public works (roads and bridges) to strengthen capacity to respond and adapt to climate change. ### Two strategies to address poverty among the poor and very poor - Strategy 1: revitalization of the agricultural sector. - Strategy 2: creation of income-generating jobs for the poor through helping farmers develop processing techniques for cashew nuts and fruit and horticultural products (to reduce forced sales at low prices). - Additional elements of revitalization: - promoting diversification and encouraging cultivation of other competitive agricultural products; - mechanization of the sector and dissemination of fertilizers to move toward continuous production throughout the year; - special emphasis on resource mobilization (both financial and human) to establish microfinance management structures and micro-finance supervision, and to integrate and monitor beneficiaries in the field. ### Five strategic areas to be developed 1. Ensuring food security: - Offensive aspect: increasing production of strategic foods such as rice, cassava, maize, and “bacil” maize. - Defensive aspect: acquiring resilience to shocks (climatic, economic) via rapid post-disaster response. 2. Improving farmers’ incomes: - Requires sound market information, high degree of organization of the agricultural economy (collaboration between stakeholders in the production chain), and opening to exports. - Agro-industry is emphasized as a source of foreign currency; demands organization of product segments, quality policies, and effective control services. 3. Develop activities to promote local products: - Driven by small and medium enterprises supported under the private sector development framework. - Priority products: cashew nuts, rice, animal products, and fish as well as some tourism-oriented products. 4. Promote some regional growth centers to enhance the value of regional resources and develop regional economies, including by: - Managing agricultural activity areas and improving road and communication infrastructure in tourist areas; - Developing a new development partnership between the state and the private sector; - Expediting implementation of electrification projects in certain regions to attract investors to sectors such as agricultural product processing and tourism; - Implementing specific programs for the development of local economies through local development funds and regional funds for economic development. *Source: _cr11353 - 1. Support for growth-generating sectors* ### 5. Integrating climate change into policy ### 5. Integrating climate change into policy ### Overview - Integrate climate change into policy, planning and investment decisions in growth-generating sectors to increase resilience to climate change. - Taking climate risks into account allows development of agriculture, housing, tourism and coastal areas and the designing of road and communication infrastructure able to face climate-related disasters. - Integration also covers aspects related to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, including greater attention to energy efficiency and renewable energy sources in all policy and investment decisions and energy strategies. - Development strategies for growth sectors should become low-carbon and resilient to climate change to promote sustainable development. ### a. Development and enhancement of the cashew sector - Historical performance and scale: - Production began in 1970. - Exports: 10,000 tons in the mid-1980s; 57,000 tons in 1997; 135,500 tons in 2009. - Guinea-Bissau is currently the sixth largest exporter of cashew nuts. - The sector employs more than 85 percent of households in the country. - Poverty impact: - A 15-percent increase in producer prices would increase consumption of the “extremely poor” by 9.5 percent and of “the poor” by 3.3 percent. - Constraints and status: - Sector has received little special attention from the State or external partners. - Local processing units (number surpasses 20) are virtually idle due to lack of financial capacity to build up stocks of raw material. - Three new processing units with foreign partners expected to be operational in 2011. - Institutions and coordination: - Government created the National Cashew Board and intends to create the National Cashew Institute. - The Cashew Board, in collaboration with the National Institute for Agricultural Research (INPA), will coordinate development of cashew plantations and promotion of byproducts. - Interventions under the second PRSP (priorities): - Conduct research to support agro-technical parameters to increase productivity, including pest control. - Strengthen quality control and standards to maximize international market opportunities. - Promote local processing of cashew nuts as foundation for the emergency plan to revive processing industry (approved in 2010); processing includes production of pulp for juices, biscuits, jams and biofuel. - Facilitate access to tax credits and incentives. ### b. Development of the rice sector - Importance and consumption gap: - Rice is staple food of more than 95 percent of the population. - Average annual consumption estimated at 190,000 tons. - Growing deficit for over ten years; deficit estimated at over 100,000 tons in 2009/2010. - Domestic production covers only 47 percent of consumption (as of 2009/2010 context). - Production structure and yields: - Family farmers: nearly 90,000 farmers, accounting for about 90 percent of production. - Low yield: 1.7 ton/ha. - Modern “elite” farmers: around 1,200, hold land grants ranging from 20 to 2,500 ha, covering about 27 percent of arable land (9 percent of the total area of the country). - Constraints to production: - Preference for cash crops (such as cashew), lack of manpower, low intensification. - Insufficient investment in research and dissemination of practices; lack of improved seeds; poor use of chemical and organic fertilizers and pesticides; low level of irrigation (out of more than 250,000 ha of rice fields that could be potentially irrigated, less than one fourth is irrigated). - Lack of access to medium- and long-term financing and extremely poor condition of rural and access roads. - Government objective under Agriculture Investment Plan (PRSP) for 2015: - Raise production by 158,000 tons of paddy rice, with approximately 95,000 tons of paddy being the deficit reduction, to meet 80% of consumption through domestic production, compared to 45 percent. - Planned measures to achieve objectives: - Control water through drainage and efficient management of rivers used for agriculture. - Provide inputs and improved seeds: support distribution of 1,000 liters of pesticides, 3,000 tons of fertilizers and 2,500 tons of improved cereal seeds in rural areas (over 5 years). - Introduce more productive varieties, including quick-growing ones, and monitor peasants. - Gradual mechanization and equipment targets: acquire 100 tractors, 1,000 pumps and accessories for small irrigation, and 1,500 cultivators; support access to 5,000 animal-traction ploughs. - Post-harvest equipment targets: add more than 300 harvesters, 600 threshing machines and 200 mills over the same period. - Land cultivation target: 46,368 ha of rice fields (27,088 ha of mangrove areas, plus 19,280 ha in rice paddy areas) to be cultivated over the next five years. - Account for opportunity costs of preserving mangroves versus converting them to rice cultivation; identify and demarcate areas to be converted and those to be preserved in light of climate change risk. - Envisaged land use zoning to entail labor-intensive works to create jobs during “dead” time, generate rural income, curb rural exodus, and boost local incomes. - Private companies in zoning and irrigation to play important role in implementing hydro-agricultural projects. - Related crops and institutional support: - Maize, grain maize and “bacil” maize to benefit from interventions targeted at farmers. - Horticulture (largely female activity) to be enhanced for MDG impact. - Revitalize National Institute for Agricultural Research (INPA) and National Plant Protection Service. ### c. Livestock and other crops - Economic contribution: - Livestock products account for about 17.0 percent of national GDP and 32 percent of agricultural GDP. - Production characteristics: - Women primarily responsible for breeding short-cycle animals (poultry, goats, sheep, pigs). - Semi-industrial egg and broiler units developed only in Bissau; milk production very underdeveloped. - Urban demand for meat, poultry and dairy often met by imports (often frozen products). - Medium-term challenges and measures: - Improve and increase animal production, focusing on short-cycle animals through research/dissemination to develop improved breeds adapted to local environment and improved animal health via promotion of veterinary services. - Other agricultural products: - Favorable conditions for palm oil, groundnuts, roots and tubers, fruit and vegetables. - Sugar cane brandy produced for export but with decreasing trend. - Women involved in harvesting and marketing; interventions to promote private-sector skills and Ministry of Agriculture support. - Implement organizational mechanisms to assure harvesting and export, improving nutrition of children and pregnant women and contributing to MDG attainment. ### d. Fisheries - Natural assets and potential: - Extended continental shelf: 45,000 km^2. - Annual catch: 250–350 thousand tons (including shrimp). - Sector could create jobs, improve diets, increase and diversify exports and tax receipts if well managed and promoted. - Constraints: - Absence of clear, effective policy to boost the sector. - Insufficient knowledge of fishery resources and marine ecosystems. - Poor institutional and human capacity for planning, monitoring and control, and promotion of private investment. - Insufficient infrastructure for conservation and processing. - Weak organizational capacity of entrepreneurial fabric and lack of economic environment to attract private investment. - Financing gap; weak institutional cooperation between fisheries, finance, and navy. - Insufficient means to supervise and control fishing vessels and combat illegal activities in the EEZ. - Ongoing and planned improvements: - Fishing port of Bandim to be operational in 2011, followed by a quality control laboratory. - Strategic measures to implement: - Improve fisheries management: prepare and introduce fisheries development policy, revise regulatory framework, improve information systems, provide training, and implement institutional reforms. - Promote private investment in the sector. - Develop infrastructure: landing ports, processing and storage facilities, maintenance and repair shipyards. - Acquire two large vessels and two aircraft to ensure effective presence in the EEZ to combat illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. - Improve quality of fishery products to meet health and international standards. - Improve knowledge of fisheries resources and ecosystems; define period of biological recovery for major fisheries. - Establish a credit system for small-scale fishermen and women street vendors to finance production, processing, and marketing. - Prepare a Strategic Plan for Aquaculture Development in Guinea-Bissau. - Dismantle fishermen camps in sensitive reproduction/growth areas; identify degraded areas for repopulation (mangroves); assess impact of conservation measures in marine protected areas. - Register artisanal canoes and consider mechanisms to reduce fishing effort in estuaries and inland waters. - Special attention to organization and development of small-scale in-shore fishing and processing because of contribution to poverty reduction and food security. ### e. Tourism - Potential and current data: - Tourism potential includes cultural diversity, landscapes and natural resources: Bijagós Archipelago, Varela beach, Cantanhez forest reserve, island of Bolama, hills and mountains of Boé. - Some destinations not feasible during the rainy season. - No recent data on tourist numbers, visitor profiles, beds/rooms and occupancy rates. - Latest available estimates (2006): less than 12,000 registered visitors, of which 3,000 were leisure or vacation travelers. - Constraints: - Absence of strategy for the sector; lack of basic infrastructure; lack of qualified personnel; negative image due to political instability and insecurity. - First PRSP identified tourism as employment-generating but almost none of planned activities were carried out; some niches (ecotourism, fishing and hunting tourism) explored. - Government intent and realistic expectations: - Government intends to boost the sector as strategic with potential to create direct and indirect jobs (particularly in rural areas). - Unrealistic to expect rapid evolution or significant foreign currency inflows for poverty reduction during the second PRSP period. - Main proposed interventions: - Formulate and introduce strategic vision incorporating economic progress, well-being and natural resource preservation; preparatory activities in 2011 to process and disseminate basic information (visitor arrivals, accommodation); focus on niche eco-tourism rather than mass tourism. - Strengthen stakeholder capacities through institutional reforms and adapted vocational training programs. - Invest in youth training through tourism schools to prepare for employment in eco-tourism. - Develop information services to create hosting and Internet access facilities and prepare a tourism development roadmap. - Prepare a tourism code of conduct. - Support development of a financing system for investments focusing on national wealth generation, human resource reinforcement and community infrastructure. - Implement community projects and incorporate gender issues in eco-tourism development. - Involve grassroots communities in running tourism businesses to ensure feasible use of natural resources, preserve cultural aspects, reduce poverty and protect the environment. - Parallel preparatory activities: develop lodging and hosting facilities; conserve historical sites and better equip areas of tourism potential (Bijagós Islands, Boé, Cantanhez, Varela); increase accessibility; organize tours and promote diversified products. - Encourage existing institutions that promote private sector, investment funding, and tourism projects. *Source: _cr11353 - 5. Integrating climate change into policy* ### 2. Develop basic economic infrastructure ### 2. Develop basic economic infrastructure ### Energy - Current situation and constraints - Energy use in Guinea-Bissau is roughly 0.3 TOE per person per year. - National electrification: 20 percent; capital city (Bissau): 40 percent (access highly irregular). - Empresa Pública de Electricidade e Águas (EAGB) suffers technical and commercial losses that account for more than 50 percent of the actual power generated. - Most equipment is obsolete, outdated and not in use. - Wood-based fuel accounts for roughly 90 percent of domestic energy consumption. - Estimated demand: 550,000 tons of wood per year (including about 137,000 for the supply of charcoal in Bissau), amounting to 1.2 million m3, or over 80 percent of forest production. - Forest coverage has declined considerably. - Major reforms approved in 2010 (Sector Development Policy Paper) - Improve access to electrical energy by extending the distribution grid and by implementing a policy with prices that are accessible for the majority of the population. - Give incentives for private investment for power generation and distribution, including renewable energy, by implementing the public-private partnership law enacted in 2010. - Implement a policy of innovative and differentiated rates that takes the different consumer categories into account, as well as periods for amortizing investments and for economic competitiveness. - Mobilize massive public and private financial resources to be invested in the energy sector to ensure 80 percent average coverage in urban areas and 60 percent at the national level by 2015. - Launch the interconnection of the sub-regional grids and accelerate the implementation of the OMVG program. - Bolster training and retraining activities at all levels to improve the sector’s technical and technological competencies. - Carry out an institutional and legal restructuring of the sector. - Liquidate the EAGB and create a new entity for providing energy supply services. - Create an entity to regulate the electricity and water sector. - Adopt a strategy to optimize the various initiatives in progress in the sector, such as the PMRI, White Paper, OMVG, make feasible the project to build the Saltinho Dam, etc. - Medium- and long-term objectives - Continue to develop the country’s energy capacities, including as part of sub-regional initiatives to foster access to more low-cost hydropower. - Encourage alternative energy sources to reduce dependence on petroleum products. - Promote access to modern energy services in rural and semi-urban areas. - Commit to promoting renewable energy by adopting a national policy to promote renewable energy, including wind, solar, and small and micro-hydroelectricity (from biomass) under its master plan. - Accelerate CILSS programs: solar panels for lighting and small-scale domestic and community needs. - Targets and projections - In 2020, expected power grid coverage: 80 percent of urban centers, as opposed to current 60 percent coverage in the country. - For 2015, targets are 60 percent (urban?) and 35 percent (national?) respectively. - Planned sector performance indicators (Table 7): - Power generation (MW): 2010 5.5 2015 15.5 - Percentage of generation invoiced and actually paid: 40 70 - Government focus to remedy situation - Increase power generation infrastructure and distribution systems, particularly for Bissau, including implementation of current projects or those in negotiation. - Strengthen EAGB’s technical and operating capacities and implement required institutional reforms. - Upgrade commercial management by raising the power use recovery rate from 40 to 70 percent or more to financially stabilize the EAGB; prioritize controlling illegal connections by strengthening the legal framework and bolstering control capabilities. - Revise the rate structure and introduce a prepayment system. - Plan sector development to meet future requirements, incorporating opportunities for development and grid interconnection under the Rio Gambia Development Organization (OMVG). - Promote alternative domestic energy systems with greater efficiency to reduce per capita use of firewood and charcoal. - Promote energy efficiency: (i) in buildings, houses and industry to lower oil expenditures and meet growing electricity demand; (ii) in production and use of charcoal to preserve forestry resources. - Implement a strategy for supplying family units with fuel to safeguard forestry resources, public finances and the balance of payments. ### Transport infrastructure (road, sea, river and air) - Current status and constraints - Total road network: 2,755 km; paved: 770 km (27.5 percent). - More than 75 percent of national and regional roads are in poor condition. - 45 percent of local streets are paved; at the national level, 75 percent of streets are unpaved. - Islands: 79 km of roads, of which 13 km are paved. - Deterioration of the road network limits access to production areas, especially in the South. - Port of Bissau: initially planned for 5,000 containers per year, currently handling about 20,000 containers per year (leading to ship waiting, worsened access conditions, and the highest port operation costs in the sub-region). - More than 85 percent of imports and 95 percent of Guinea-Bissau’s exports go through the Port of Bissau. - Achievements - Significant progress upgrading the primary road network and building crossings with external partner support. - Most regional networks brought out of isolation and connected to Senegal and Guinea Conakry; nearly passable year-round. - Priority actions planned — road sector - Upgrade access to production areas by implementing the program to rehabilitate rural trails, with emphasis on the South. - Maintain and expand the national road network via programs to maintain, rehabilitate and/or build streets and crossings. - Pursue permanent interlinking of Senegal, Guinea-Bissau and the Republic of Guinea with Transwest African and interconnection roads (intercommunity corridor under the Regional Economic Program (PER)). - Priority actions planned — maritime and river transport - Rehabilitation and expansion of the Port of Bissau (strategic for imports and exports of cashew nuts). - Improve security at sea: provide support equipment for ships (beacons, buoys, other equipment). - Conduct hydrographic surveys to update small-scale nautical maps. - Build a second deepwater port at the Port of Buba as part of integrated agricultural and mineral development following environmental impact study. - Revitalize river and maritime transport to bring southern islands out of isolation: establish a river fleet, dredge navigable waterways, acquire communication and safety equipment. - Strengthen institutional capacities (Merchant Marine General Directorate) to regulate, supervise and set up a maritime transport meteorological center. - Priority actions planned — air transport - Upgrade Osvaldo Vieira International Purpose to meet International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) standards and standardize the air navigation system. ### Telecommunications - Current status and challenges - Three cellular operators: Guinetel, MTN and Orange. - 39.3 percent of the population has cellular phones. - Internet access rate is limited to less than 1 percent. - Landline development remains problematic; switch to mobile phones affects high-speed data transfer needs. - Legal and regulatory measures enacted - Framework law on the administration of telecommunications covering: interconnection and network access; providing network and information and communications services; projects, penalties, dispute resolution; and public consultation. - Government policy actions - Strengthen the legal framework to promote private investment, strengthen free competition and improve service quality. - Strengthen capacities of the Guinea-Bissau Communication Institute (ICGB) as regulator. - Prepare and implement a plan for government divestiture of Guiné-Telecom. - Promote rural telephony, including creation of a universal access fund for telecommunications services. - Promote development of a national fiber optic network by encouraging private investment given required investment volumes. ### Urban development, housing, mapping and regional planning - Institutional and legal measures adopted - Adopted the General Civil Construction and Urban Housing Regulation. - Created the Real Estate Development Agency. - Enacted the Regional Planning and Urban Development Law. - Established the National Regional Planning Policy. - PRSP II measures to implement - Develop and implement regional development plans. - Develop coherent instruments for maintaining national physical spaces and natural resources (National Regional Development Plan and map updates). - Regulate land rights (the Land Law). - Adopt national housing and urban development policies. - Begin urban restructuring and rehabilitation in the cities of Guinea-Bissau. - Renovate and build urban infrastructure: markets, slaughterhouses, public latrines, recreational facilities, etc. - Update topographical maps of the country and urban centers. - Strengthen national capacities in urban planning, geographical information systems, mapping and planning. - Create green spaces in urban areas. - Gender and social considerations - Women (especially heads of family units, widows, divorced or single) face more difficulty than men in owning real estate and accessing financial resources; PRSP II will integrate and respond to these specific needs. ### 3. Improve governance in the emerging sectors of mining and oil - Resource potential and challenges - Considerable deposits identified: bauxite, phosphate and other minerals of economic interest. - Major challenges: (i) difficulty mobilizing necessary investments; (ii) poor national capacities for negotiating and monitoring legal instruments; (iii) controlling environmental impacts of mining activities. - Recommended core interventions and timelines - Improve the investment framework by revising the Mining and Hydrocarbons Law (revision to be completed in 2012). - Strengthen technical and administrative capacities of the entity responsible for mines and hydrocarbons so that a national mining and oil policy can be prepared in 2011-2012; train staff; equip entities; improve transparency of agreement negotiation and approval. - Plan measures to optimize mining resource fluctuations: revise and adjust mining and oil taxation to meet international standards; involve mining companies more in local development; join the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI + +) in 2011. - Implement environmental preservation measures: require operators to perform environmental impact studies; rehabilitate mined or affected areas; institutionalize fees for restoring and preserving the environment; strengthen government control and monitoring capacities and civil society involvement; strengthen capacities and evaluate monitoring of extractive industries’ environmental impacts. - Pay special attention to preventing risks of spreading HIV/AIDS and GBV in mining operating areas; protect women to prevent and mitigate acts of sexual violence and related health impacts. - Interim constraints on new activity - Pending institutional framework implementation, the government will not award new concessions or begin new large-scale projects, with exception: - Boé deposits: resumption of work authorized in accordance with environmental standards, including repairing damage already caused. - Existing concessions for precious metals in Varela and phosphate deposits in Farim should be revised per international environmental protection standards. ### 4. Develop the processing industry - Current assessment and constraints - Industrial sector is embryonic and sluggish, constrained beginning with supply and high cost of electricity. - Studies and consultations do not consider this sector a vehicle for growth in the next five years; no specific program proposed under PRSP II for general industry. - Existing potentials and government approach - Existing potential for processing cashew nuts and fish products addressed and authorized for corresponding industries. - Potential for agro-industry (e.g., fruit juice) will be considered along with general measures to improve the business environment. - Government will begin a detailed study of the type of industrialization feasible in the medium and long run based on comparative advantages, sub-regional competition, and environmental impact studies. *Source: _cr11353 - 2. Develop basic economic infrastructure* ### 5. Improve and develop the job market ### 5. Improve and develop the job market ### Employment: initial diagnosis and priority levels - Pending a more detailed and updated analysis of the job situation in Guinea-Bissau, the initial results of the 2009 census of the population and the 2010 poverty survey, as well as the study of non-monetary poverty in February 2011, show at least six (6) levels of priorities: - The cross-cutting dimension of employment through certain arbitrations of macroeconomic policies and strategies for implementing investment programs that address job market concerns and social pressure on people looking for dignified and sustainable jobs; - Implement a job observatory with information disaggregated by gender, so that the measures that are taken are appropriate and benefit women and men alike; - Specific programs to solve underemployment problems in rural areas and unemployment in urban areas; - Prepare a strategy for jobs for youth, incorporating the government social welfare and environmental policy; - The legal framework for incentives and protecting workers’ rights; - Create a job program based on urban and road investments so that the question of employment is the crux of the strategy by using high-intensity techniques for manpower, training and growing small- and medium-sized businesses. ### Government emphasis for the next five years - For the next five years, the government will stress the following aspects: - Developing a national employment and vocational training policy; - Developing employment indicators to better grasp the unemployment situation and target its interventions based on housing location (urban and rural); - Establishing a youth job program that incorporates the gender equality issue in terms of access and training opportunities; - Establishing a regionalized program for creating jobs, using high-intensity manpower techniques in implementing certain types of projects in the Public Investment Program. --- ### 6. Environmental management and protection ### Current status and threats - In comparison with other countries in the sub-region, Guinea-Bissau seems to have preserved its environmental balance. - The intensification of economic activities in certain areas such as agriculture and fishing, and in the extractive industries in particular, may be a real threat to the ecosystem and the sustainability of natural resources. - Several practices developing soil resources, water and the forests are among the main causes of: - increase in types of soil deterioration, - fragmentation of habitats, - soil erosion, - fewer available water resources, - a loss of ecosystem services, - rapid drop-off in biological diversity. - Specific threatening practices listed: - slash-and-burn agriculture practices, - subsistence hunting, - charcoal and small livestock production, - general herding of livestock, - indiscriminate cutting of forestry resources to extract the last cuttings of wood, - rapid expansion of cashew nut plantations, - unsustainable hunting and burning (fire is often used as a hunting technique). - Climate change may gradually exacerbate negative effects of forest losses and jeopardize subsistence and survival capacity of rural communities. ### Adopted solution pillars (national natural resource management papers: NBSAP, NAPA, PAN, LCD, national messages, etc.) - (a) building institutional, technical and financial capacities to manage natural resources; - (b) strengthening the regulatory framework; - (c) incorporating environmental and natural resource management into economic development policies; - (d) making people in rural areas aware of the role of ecosystem development services; - (e) engaging the interested parties, including communities, in ecosystem management. ### Steps to achieve PNGA objectives - i) revise the PNGA; - ii) develop consistent instruments for managing national physical spaces and natural resources (National Regional Planning); - iii) design a national strategy to properly manage water resources and ensure rational access for all users; - iv) encourage renewable energy to ensure that energy requirements can be met sustainably, thereby reducing pressure on forestry resources (firewood); - v) establish a reliable information system accessible to all users for better environmental management; - vi) develop environmental research; - vii) implement a reforestation program to curb or reverse the deterioration of natural resources; - viii) implement conventions and protocols that are directly or indirectly related to the environment and sign others considered relevant; - ix) modernize economic activities, in particular by intensifying agriculture for food security through sustainable natural resources development; - x) develop the national plan to mitigate greenhouse gases (NAMA), the National Zero Carbon Development Strategy in the Strategy Investment Plan for the Sustainable Management of Land; - xi) strengthen the operational capacities of institutions in charge of monitoring, evaluating and protecting the environment; - xii) mobilize financial resources to implement the aforementioned strategy plans. --- ### 2.4.4. Core area IV: Raise the level of human capital development ### Objective and scope - This core area establishes the priority measures for education, health, water, and sanitation, taking into account the necessity of accelerating the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). - Special attention will continue to be paid to the poor and vulnerable groups, and to women and children in particular from the poorest units and people who require special treatment, with the challenge of ensuring that everyone has equal access to basic social services. - Measures aim to accelerate the development of quality of living and human resources by developing and upgrading the quality of education, health, drinking water supply, and sanitation services. ### 1. Develop and improve the quality of the education system — assessment - Considerable progress in access to education at all levels over the last seven years, partly due to community contributions at the primary level. - According to provisional results of the 2010 Multiple Indicator Cluster/Reproductive Health Demographic Survey (MICS/IDSR): - Net enrollment rate at the primary level was 67.4 percent at the national level, versus 56.9 percent in 2003/2004 (an increase of 10.5 percentage points in six years). - Primary net enrollment rate by area: - 87.1 percent in Bissau, - 83.5 percent in all urban areas combined, - 56.5 percent in rural areas. - Primary net enrollment by gender: - 65.4 percent for girls, - 69.3 percent for boys. - Secondary level net enrollment rate is 23.5 percent at the national level, while the rate for girls is 19.9 percent. - Retention and completion: - Of every 100 children that enroll for the first year, just 40 reach the sixth year of school. - In rural areas, boys have twice as many chances of completing primary education as girls; in urban areas the difference is 1.4. - Literacy and quality constraints: - Adult literacy rate: 42 percent of the adult population is literate (estimated based on the 2000 MICS). - Quality is constrained by insufficient infrastructure, practically nonexistent teaching resources (few or no textbooks), lack and poor qualifications of faculty, and structural disturbances observed over recent years. ### Education Sector Policy Paper 2009–2020 expected results - i) raise the preschool registration rate to 11 percent in 2020 versus 5 percent in 2006; - ii) provide primary education to all children; - iii) improve access to primary education (7th to 9th grades), to give most youths the nine years of education; - iv) upgrade higher education and promote scientific research; - v) improve the quality of education at all levels. ### PRSP II implementation measures for education Preschool level: - i) develop community and madrassa models; - ii) promote private centers to raise acceptance capacity to 10 percent per year; - iii) improve the public supply by streamlining the resources allocated to kindergartens. Primary school level: - Goal: 100 percent of children in an age group registered in first grade in a given year and to give them a complete education of six years in 2020. - Interim targets while PRSP II is implemented: - 68.8 percent in 2011; - 81.6 percent in 2015. Support for vulnerable groups — specific programs: - Provide equipment and materials for teaching and strengthening educator capacity; - Lower the costs of educating children with the goal of implementing the free education policy; - Provide free education for children who are in extremely vulnerable situations; - Increase the number of and diversify school cafeterias; - Develop adult literacy and instructional programs as a way to contribute to alleviating poverty in family units. Required measures to achieve objectives: - i) lower the failure rate to 10 percent starting in 2015 versus 14.8 percent in 2010; - ii) gradually have the government take over the community and madrassa schools; - iii) promote the supply of private schools through incentives (10 percent of the unit cost of a public sector student for each private sector student); - iv) eliminate disparities in access to education; - v) with community support, establish school cafeterias, with priority given to areas with low demand for education and high dropout rates; - vi) systematically use classes with more than one grade in areas with low school enrollment; - vii) build and renovate an average of 365 classrooms per year; - viii) hire an average of roughly 635 teachers per year. - Impact if implemented: educate 546,000 children by 2020, as opposed to 362,000 in 2010. ### Primary level targets and indicators (table data preserved) - Number of textbooks to be distributed: - 2010-2011: 941,727 - 2011-2012: 969,234 - 2012-2013: 997,578 - 2013-2014: 1,026,786 - 2014-2015: 1,056,294 - Course completion rate: - 2010-2011: 66.8% - 2011-2012: 70.5% - 2012-2013: 74.2% - 2013-2014: 77.9% - 2014-2015: 81.6% - Ministry of Education/Education System Statistics and Planning Office, simulation model, June 2009 edition ### Measures to improve quality - i) strengthening initial and continuing training of faculty; - ii) gradually decreasing the number of classrooms with more than one grade; - iii) lower the student-teacher ratio; - iv) distribute textbook and educational materials to schools free of charge; - v) beginning in 2012, prepare and adopt new school programs appropriate for the country’s economic and social realities; - vi) strengthen the administrative and educational management of schools. - The Fast-Track Initiative is identified as an opportunity for mobilizing additional financing necessary for the primary education initiative for all. ### Secondary education targets and measures - Goals and planned interventions: - Raise public secondary school enrollment capacity to 28,000 students in 2020 versus 13,000 in 2006; - Hire an average of about 115 teachers per year; - Build an average of roughly 35 classrooms per year; - Have the government pay tuition and purchase textbooks for the most disadvantaged students. - Additional steps: - i) gradually increase actual time students spend in school, from 20 weeks currently to 25 weeks in 2020; - ii) raise the number of weekly hours per teacher from 17 to 25 hours by 2020; - iii) revise initial training of teachers and implement appropriate continuing education; - iv) strengthen the teaching of scientific disciplines by building and outfitting laboratories; - v) strengthen administrative and educational management of schools; - vi) reorganize the academic year by introducing the twelfth year to harmonize with sub-regional practices, including the revision of program and curriculum. ### Primary school targets and indicators (additional table data) - Enrollment capacity: - 2010-2011: 17,303 - 2011-2012: 18,033 - 2012-2013: 18,701 - 2013-2014: 19,301 - 2014-2015: 19,825 - Retention rate in the 10th and 11th grades: - 2010-2011: 89.5% - 2011-2012: 90.1% - 2012-2013: 90.7% - 2013-2014: 91.3% - 2014-2015: 91.9% - Ministry of Education/Education System Statistics and Planning Office, simulation model, June 2009 edition ### BOX 1 — Requirements for achieving universal education by 2015: MDG 2 (selected quantified requirements) - Classrooms to be built (Academic year): - Primary: - 2010/11: 304 - 2011/12: 907 - 2012/13: 972 - 2013/14: 987 - 2014/15: 971 - Average: 828 - Secondary 1: - 2010/11: 1 - 2011/12: 15 - 2012/13: 128 - 2013/14: 196 - 2014/15: 354 - Average: 505 - Secondary 2: - 2010/11: 2 - 2011/12: 7 - 2012/13: 38 - 2013/14: 84 - 2014/15: 62 - Average: 69 - New teachers to be hired (Academic year): - Primary: - 2010/11: 1,360 - 2011/12: 1,459 - 2012/13: 1,575 - 2013/14: 1,615 - 2014/15: 1,615 - Average: 1,525 - Secondary 1: - 2010/11: 364 - 2011/12: 529 - 2012/13: 852 - 2013/14: 1,607 - 2014/15: 1,608 - Average: 992 - Secondary 2: - 2010/11: 97 - 2011/12: 115 - 2012/13: 175 - 2013/14: 42 - 2014/15: 67 - Average: 99 ### Technical education and vocational training (ETFP) - Objectives: - i) increase access to technical and vocational training; - ii) improve the quality of and diversify training programs; - iii) improve the monitoring of technical and vocational training. - Measures to implement: - i) build capacities of the Technical and Vocational Training Institute; - ii) restructure the management system as a framework for dialogue and cooperation between training institutions and responsible companies; - iii) institutionalize a management system based on the permanent revision of matching training with jobs; - iv) require initial and continuing training of trainers; - v) prepare and implement suitable training programs, including entrepreneurship; - vi) rehabilitate teaching equipment and materials; - vii) promote work-linked training; - viii) strengthen monitoring-evaluation and quality control; - ix) implement systems to support socio-occupational integration of trained youths, in particular through facilities for accessing basic equipment as well as initial coaching. - Capacity target by 2020: - Vocational training schools able to accommodate 15 percent of the youths who complete the primary and secondary courses and the traditional ETFP can be expanded. - Specific requirements: - i) strengthen enrollment capacities of existing establishments and create new facilities to accommodate 447 students in 2010 and 604 in 2020; - ii) pay some of the costs of vocational education and integration to make it accessible to the largest possible number of youths; - iii) diversify the specializations directed to the priority sectors of the economy; - iv) hire trainers. ### Higher education and scientific research priorities - i) diversification and professionalization of training; - ii) implementation of an observation and job market search system; - iii) promotion of private education and distance learning to enhance public sector weak capacities; - iv) continuing education for teachers; - v) improvements in teaching resources, such as laboratories, libraries, electronic networks, NICT; - vi) develop partnerships between the Public University and foreign universities. ### Adult literacy targets and approach - Policy aims: - i) expand opportunities for accessing knowledge for persons between 15 and 35 years of age; - ii) lower the illiteracy rate to 21 percent in 2015 versus 42 percent in 2010; - iii) have a functional approach to literacy oriented to literacy activities; - iv) develop the intensive literacy program through audiovisual ALFA-TV. - Implementation steps: - i) identify the target population (using census results); - ii) mobilize all actors to fight illiteracy; - iii) develop literacy training programs and guides; - iv) train facilitators/literacy trainers; - v) strengthen the monitoring-evaluation system; - vi) implement literacy programs for parents of students with the support of primary education teachers. ### Gender-specific education actions (seven (7) priority actions) - (i) pay special attention to girls so that their enrollment, retention and course completion rate targets will be achieved at every level; - (ii) ensure that girls register for school and remain in the education system during the legal age; - (iii) at every level, create the administrative, social and legal conditions to protect female and male pupils and students from sexual harassment; - (iv) facilitate and promote the enrollment and retention of women in the literacy facilities and support them in post-literacy; - (v) strike a gender balance in retaining and hiring teachers; - (vi) include gender issues in cross-cutting training programs for teachers and students starting at the primary level. _ Source: _cr11353 - 5. Improve and develop the job market_ ### 2. Develop the health sector and upgrade the quality of services ### 2. Develop the health sector and upgrade the quality of services ### Health situation and main constraints - Low level of use of health services: fewer than 0.4 visits to health facilities per inhabitant per year. - Vulnerable groups: children under five and mothers. - Mortality indicators: - One in ten children (104 per thousand) dies before the age of one. - The risk of a woman of childbearing age dying in Guinea-Bissau is 184 times greater than the risk of women who live in developed countries. - Coverage and demand pressures: - Demographic growth: 2.47 percent (according to the results of the 2009 census of the population / RGPH-2009). - Rising demands for coverage, availability and quality of health services. - Main causes of morbidity and mortality: - Communicable diseases (including HIV/AIDS), obstetrical and neonatal complications. - Malaria: endemic, stable transmission, high prevalence; most vulnerable groups are children under five and pregnant women. - Tuberculosis (National Tuberculosis Control Program, PNLT, 2005): incidence 206 per 100,000 persons per year (WHO, SD); 19 percent of new cases in adults were HIV+ (WHO, SD); prevalence 293 cases per 100,000 persons (WHO, SD). - Malnutrition: leading public health issue among noncommunicable diseases, significant contributor to infant-child and maternal mortality. - Noncommunicable clinical context: cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, diabetes, cancer. - Gender and social determinants: - Social status of women (dependence on men’s decisions, inability to refuse sexual acts, victim-blaming in cases of violence) increases structural vulnerability to disease and exacerbates physiological vulnerability to STDs including HIV/AIDS. - Geographic inequality: national coverage remains low, especially in rural areas. ### National strategy and policy responses - Adoption of the National Health Development Program II (PNDS) with objectives fully in line with MDGs 4, 5 and 6 (lower maternal-child mortality, promote reproductive health, fight HIV/AIDS). - PNDS primary goal (Operationalization Instrument): improve the people’s health status by strengthening the national health system, including care services, management entities and their functional connections. - Sector strategic measures expressed in PRSP II: - Build, renovate and outfit health infrastructures. - Develop and upgrade human resources. - Supply pharmaceuticals and nonpharmaceuticals. - Promote expanded programs to control infectious and contagious diseases such as tuberculosis and hepatitis. - Launch the referral and counter-referral system. - Ensure supervision, monitoring, assessment and development of operational research. - Strengthen governance, leadership, partnerships and quality control. - Develop intersectoral cooperation and health promotion. - Adopt and implement obstetric care. - Support the expanded program on immunization for children. - Prevent and mitigate cholera epidemics and support authorities in preventing and fighting HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted and endemic diseases. - Distribute malaria treatment kits to children. - Service delivery orientation: - Strengthen primary health care through a minimum package of activities (MPA) to all health centers. - Promote community-level financial and budget management partnership in accordance with the Bamako Initiative. - Ensure complementarity between central, regional and local facilities for curative, preventive and promotional services. - Additional government guidelines: - Strengthen the expanded program by implementing cost-recovery mechanisms and facilitating access for vulnerable groups. - Equitably distribute human, material and financial resources. - Improve the operation of health services and the quality of care. - Gradually decentralize the health system and upgrade management capacities. - Develop a human resources policy, including a training plan and a plan to improve working conditions for health professionals. - Develop better programmatic and operational cooperation and coordination. - Targeted poverty response: - Create a system of partial coverage of health care costs for poor and very poor families with identification and coupon books providing partial support for medical care covering between 80 and 90 percent. - Care centers contracted to assist the poor and very poor will obtain assistance in the form of drugs, equipment and personnel training. ### Requirements for achieving MDGs 4, 5 and 6 — main interventions - Identified main interventions: - Develop infrastructure. - Hire, train and assign personnel. - Meet other requirements for managing the health system (cost management, M&E, etc.). - Provide health care to children (primary, hospital care and immunization) and mothers (family planning and antenatal and postnatal care). - Control malaria (distribute ITNs and use IPT for pregnant mothers). - Control HIV/AIDS (youth awareness, complete PMTCT services for pregnant women, full screening services and the cost of ARV treatment). - Recommended strategies: - Subsidize certain drugs, vaccines and consumables. - Promote essential generic drugs. - Pay emergency costs, including for disadvantaged persons. - Promote solidarity mechanisms, streamline care, standardize prices. - Identify and apply criteria for the allocation and use of resources and promote risk-sharing systems for health (government, TFPs and families). ### Infrastructures to be renovated (by year) - Community health units: 2011 60 2012 60 2013 60 2014 60 2015 61 - "C" health center: 2011 17 2012 17 2013 17 2014 17 2015 17 - "B" health center: 2011 4 2012 3 2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 - "A" health center: 2011 2 2012 2 2013 2 2014 2 2015 0 - Regional hospital: 2011 1 2012 1 2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 - National referral clinic: 2011 0 2012 0 2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 - National hospital: 2011 0 2012 0 2013 0 2014 0 2015 0 ### Human resources requirements (by year) - General clinic physician: 2011 68 2012 68 2013 68 2014 68 2015 68 - General Practitioner [Médico integrado]: 2011 8 2012 8 2013 8 2014 8 2015 8 - Surgeon: 2011 18 2012 20 2013 20 2014 20 2015 20 - Obstetrician-Gynecologist: 2011 16 2012 16 2013 16 2014 16 2015 16 - Pediatrician: 2011 22 2012 24 2013 24 2014 24 2015 24 - Nurses/partners: 2011 637 2012 685 2013 685 2014 685 2015 685 - Public health worker: 2011 43 2012 43 2013 43 2014 43 2015 43 - Nurses’ assistants: 2011 459 2012 459 2013 459 2014 459 2015 459 - Laboratory assistants: 2011 145 2012 153 2013 153 2014 153 2015 153 - Laboratory technicians: 2011 53 2012 53 2013 53 2014 53 2015 53 - Ophthalmology technicians: 2011 22 2012 24 2013 24 2014 24 2015 24 - Community ophthalmology technicians: 2011 8 2012 8 2013 8 2014 8 2015 8 - Optometry technicians: 2011 14 2012 16 2013 16 2014 16 2015 16 - Pathology anatomy technicians: 2011 2 2012 2 2013 2 2014 2 2015 2 - Physical therapists: 2011 14 2012 16 2013 16 2014 16 2015 16 - Radiology technicians: 2011 36 2012 40 2013 40 2014 40 2015 40 - Optometry technicians (duplicate line in source): 2011 10 2012 10 2013 10 2014 10 2015 10 - Optometry assistants: 2011 14 2012 16 2013 16 2014 16 2015 16 - Stomatology technicians: 2011 14 2012 16 2013 16 2014 16 2015 16 - Anesthesia technicians: 2011 44 2012 48 2013 48 2014 48 2015 48 - Instrument technicians: 2011 58 2012 64 2013 64 2014 64 2015 64 - Surgical technicians: 2011 36 2012 40 2013 40 2014 40 2015 40 - Pharmacy technicians: 2011 44 2012 48 2013 48 2014 48 2015 48 - Social workers: 2011 14 2012 16 2013 16 2014 16 2015 16 - Senior administrators: 2011 23 2012 23 2013 23 2014 23 2015 23 - Secretaries: 2011 20 2012 20 2013 20 2014 20 2015 20 - Mid-level administrators: 2011 22 2012 22 2013 22 2014 22 2015 22 - Dieticians: 2011 5 2012 5 2013 5 2014 5 2015 5 - Cooks: 2011 23 2012 23 2013 23 2014 23 2015 23 - Laundry workers: 2011 45 2012 45 2013 45 2014 45 2015 45 - Drivers: 2011 45 2012 45 2013 45 2014 45 2015 45 - Janitors: 2011 486 2012 486 2013 486 2014 486 2015 486 - Statisticians: 2011 27 2012 27 2013 27 2014 27 2015 27 - Electricians: 2011 9 2012 9 2013 9 2014 9 2015 9 - Community health workers (CHW): 2011 4,206 2012 4,206 2013 4,206 2014 4,206 2015 4,206 ### 3. Intensify and expand HIV/AIDS programs — epidemiology and strategy - HIV/AIDS prevalence: - UNAIDS SPECTRUM 2009: total prevalence of HIV/AIDS in Guinea-Bissau is 2.6 percent. - INASA and IHM study: average prevalence rate 5.8 percent. - Epidemiological profile: - Coexistence of HIV1 and HIV2; reversal of the epidemiological profile: HIV1 dominated up to early 1990s, HIV2 became more frequent especially among young pregnant women under 25. - Sentinel study: rates in young women were twice as high as the prevalence of HIV1 compared to rates of women over 30 years old. - Higher prevalence in regional capitals. - Government program focus: - Information, education and communication (IEC) for understanding HIV/AIDS and transmission. - Behavior change awareness. - Expanding access to antiretrovirals (ARVs) and psycho-social support. - Assistance for PLWHIV and their families, including AIDS orphans. - Strengthening national capacities to respond to HIV/AIDS. - Deconcentration and decentralization of interventions and involvement of PLWHIV in campaigns. - Partner support required; government will contribute substantial resources despite financial limitations. - Special attention to women and young girls (15–24 years old) due to increasing impact of the epidemic and gender-based vulnerabilities. - PEN (National Strategy Plan) 2011–2013: four goals and five intermediate objectives 1. Lower HIV infection trends in the population by: - Strengthening counseling and voluntary screening capacities and behavior change communication capacities. - Providing an integrated PMTCT prevention package to 50 percent of women who use antenatal care. - Ensuring 100 percent safety for blood or its derivatives in blood transfusion facilities. 2. Improve living conditions for people living with HIV/AIDS by improving the quality of life for more than 80 percent of PLWHIV eligible for ARV and OI treatment, including orphans and vulnerable children. 3. Provide complete and reliable information on strategic trends for decision-making and resource allocation. 4. Involve all actors/partners to obtain an appropriate national response and strengthen institutional and program coordination at local, regional and central levels. - PEN II (2007–2011) recommended objectives across four intervention areas: - Intervention area 1: universal access to STD/HIV/AIDS prevention - Increase from 7 percent to 60 percent the percentage of the population who should know and be able to correctly identify at least three ways HIV/AIDS is transmitted (with emphasis on youths). - Increase from 33 percent to 60 percent the use of condoms in occasional sexual relations during the last 12 months. - Decrease from 8 percent to 4 percent the percentage of the sexually active population that had an STD in the last 12 months. - Increase by at least 30 percent the number of sexually active people who know their HIV status. - Ensure 100 percent of blood transfusions performed in accordance with safety standards. - Ensure 100 percent of minimal conditions are met for preventing infection by blood transfusion and sharps in health facilities. - Area 2: reduce the impact of HIV/AIDS - Ensure access to treatment for OIs and antiretroviral therapy (ARVT) for 80 percent of the costs of treating PLWHIV. - Provide access to care and community support for persons infected and affected by HIV/AIDS. - Reduce vulnerability of OVCs infected and affected by HIV/AIDS. - Reduce stigma against persons infected and affected by HIV/AIDS. - Area 3: bolster epidemiological vigilance, M&E, and promote operational research - Determine prevalence and trends in epidemic and at-risk behaviors among general and priority groups. - Monitor sensitivity of microbes responsible for STDs, resistance to antibiotics and ARVs, and coinfection with HIV/tuberculosis. - Determine burden of epidemics on health services and other sectors. - Implement national unified monitoring and evaluation of AIDS in Guinea-Bissau. - Strengthen national operational research capacities. - Area 4: reform coordination to improve partnership and mobilize resources - Obtain political and institutional commitment at all levels. - Ensure each sector takes ownership of the fight against AIDS as a national emergency. - Upgrade capacity to mobilize additional resources and financial management to reach PEN objectives. - Build technical capacities for implementing activities to fight AIDS. - Implement a system to mobilize resources to fight AIDS at all levels. ### 4. Improve access to water and sanitation services — status, targets and priority actions - Current access (2010 MDG-WSSD Plan): - 40 percent of the population has access to drinking water (from a tap or public fountains, protected wells, or reservoirs). - Roughly 35 percent of families have no latrines that meet minimum requirements for protecting public health. - No organized system to remove or treat urban waste. - Gender dimension: supply of drinking water to families and waste removal are socially codified as women’s domestic duties, particularly in rural areas. - Recent progress examples: - Expand water main network to more than 3,000 families. - Build public fountains in Bissau neighborhoods. - Drill wells and install modern pumps in regions. - Build 300 water points in rural areas. - Build many family and school latrines. - PRSP II challenge and Master Plan 2010–2020 targets: - Increase access rate for drinking water from 40 percent to 65 percent by 2015. - Increase access to improved latrines from 22 percent to 61 percent by 2015. - Priority actions: - Approve the policy paper and the national strategy to develop the sector, and the water code. - Expand capacities for producing, treating and controlling water quality; build new large-capacity reservoirs for major urban centers, especially Bissau. - Upgrade and expand the water network in the city of Bissau. - Build 3,291 water points nationally, particularly in neediest areas, by 2015. - Build 125,078 latrines in the country, especially in disadvantaged areas. - Implement and/or strengthen capacities of management entities to promote sustainable sector development at central and regional levels, mainly by training parties involved. - Establish a vocational training center for water supply and sanitation and integrated management of hydrographic basins and wetlands. - Promote civic education in sanitation. - Build markets under acceptable sanitary conditions. - Establish partnerships between authorities, NGOs and communities in this area. *Source: _cr11353 - 2. Develop the health sector and upgrade the quality of services* ### 5. Improve and expand social protection ### 5. Improve and expand social protection ### Social protection coverage and population vulnerabilities - Access to a social protection system is quite limited and reserved for about 2 percent of the population (civil servants and a few private sector employees). - Much of the population faces danger and vulnerability due to poverty and lack of formal protection mechanisms. - Vulnerable groups identified: disabled persons; the elderly without resources; youths of school age looking for jobs; children; pregnant women. - According to the 2010 MICS, 57 percent of children from 5 to 14 years old are subjected to child labor (655 in the rural areas versus 455 in urban areas). - Many people, including pregnant women, die from a lack of access to quality social services. ### Strategic priorities and policy measures under PRSP II - Principal aim: contribute to fairness and human development by improving access—especially for the most vulnerable—to rights and essential services: food; education; health; drinking water and sanitation. - Strategic priorities listed by the government: - i) create viable and reliable mechanisms to define, structure and implement a more just and real social protection system; - ii) standardize the different social protection systems and lessen inequalities to guarantee that the civil servants have these rights; - iii) prevent social marginalization through efforts to promote a sense of collective responsibility and to ensure that the social protection system can truly adapt to the new realities (including poverty, drug dependence, gender, HIV/AIDS, major vulnerabilities, etc.); - iv) set up improved pension funds for civil servants and give them medical care and better treatment; - v) determine and implement appropriate legislation and inclusive social policies for children in vulnerable situations (for inclusion in the general government budget of funds channeled into the implementation of policies and action plans to support vulnerable groups, and especially women, children and the disabled); - vi) promote supporting the implementation of programs to strengthen community involvement to protect children and to provide access to basic social services; - vii) strengthen institutional mechanisms for protecting women and children at risk of violence and abuse, including child labor, and create a response coordination and management system; - viii) improve access to basic social services for children, the elderly, and people with special needs and or in vulnerable or at-risk situations; - ix) improve nutrition assistance for children. ### Labor, education, and community-level measures - Strengthen capacities and effectiveness of the labor agency; propose strict enforcement of statutory provisions on labor rights, including hiring and purchasing insurance under the system. - Plans to: - i) promote education, literacy and vocational training for women and youth and their income-generating activities; - ii) provide legal assistance for women to fight violence and demeaning treatment. ### Develop advocacy actions for gender equality and justice (Section 6) - Guinea-Bissau has ratified international, continental and regional instruments promoting women’s rights and has translated commitments into national laws and action plans (institutional analysis of national gender capacities, surveys on GBV, living conditions for women and men; draft law on female genital mutilation (FGM); action plan to implement Resolution 1325; cumulative report on CEDAW). - Institutional arrangements: - Ministry in charge of women’s issues (family, social cohesion and poverty alleviation); - Women’s and Children’s Institute (IMC); - numerous civil society associations and NGOs specializing in microcredit, GBV, mutual health systems, education, and HIV/AIDS. - The country is finalizing the National Equality and Gender Equity Policy (PNIEG) to provide a framework for orientation, dialogue and coordination for gender issues. - Shortcomings and challenges: - Data seldom disaggregated by sex; - “Women and development” approach persists; - Gender skills are in short supply; - Actions sometimes poorly coordinated; - Parties involved lack resources to carry out or monitor activities. - PRSP II gender challenge is fourfold: - (i) ensure that the contribution of women is used to advantage in sectoral activities; - (ii) ensure women and men enjoy expected benefits to pull them out of poverty; - (iii) allow parents to fulfill commitments regarding women’s rights; - (iv) forge ahead in the next five years to achieve all the MDGs. - Two objectives to meet the challenge: - i) curb economic and social disparities between men and women; - ii) eliminate the inequalities and injustices that women face. - A cross-cutting approach to gender issues will integrate gender as a dimension in design, budget, institutional framework, management, monitoring and evaluation across sectors. ### Macroeconomic context, PRSP II financing, and key risks (Section 2.5) - May 2010: Guinea-Bissau signed a medium-term program with the IMF for 2010-2012 supported with the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). - Reached the HIPC Initiative completion point in December 2010. - These developments reflect efforts toward fiscal rehabilitation, improving attractiveness of the economy, advancing government operations, and addressing defense and security problems. - Macroeconomic outlook for PRSP II expected to be more favorable due to consolidation of progress and expansion of economic and financial reforms. ### Key trends and lessons from macroeconomic developments 2006-2010 - Real GDP growth: - Average real GDP growth rate averaged 3.2 percent during 2006-2010. - Tertiary sector real growth averaged 4.4 percent; secondary sector averaged -0.4 percent; primary sector averaged 2.4 percent. - In 2010, real GDP growth amounted to 3.5 percent; projected at 4.3 percent in 2011. - Sectoral composition and outputs: - Primary sector: average of 44 percent of real GDP during 2006-2010; agriculture accounts for an average of 72 percent of production in the sector; livestock 11 percent; fishery 12 percent. - Average cashew production estimated at 136,000 tons during 2006-2010. - Secondary sector regressed with average real growth rate of -0.4 percent; agrofood subsector average -1.4 percent and accounts for 75 percent of secondary sector production. - Water and electricity subsector productivity registered 3.2 percent increase. - Tertiary sector average annual growth rate of 4.4 percent; transportation and telecommunications registered increases of 10.3 percent and 10 percent respectively; commercial sector averaged 7.4 percent and accounted for 53.8 percent of tertiary sector production. - Financial services subsector averaged -3.7 percent; public services averaged -2.6 percent and account for 22 percent of the sector. - Investment and demand: - Investment increased an average of 24.6 percent, driven by public investment (35.9 percent). - Nominal domestic demand grew 5.7 percent. - Exports increased 7.45 percent; imports increased 7.5 percent. - Average inflation was 4 percent during the period, with inflationary pressure in 2008. ### Government finance (2006-2010) - Average tax burden of 6.3 percent during 2006-2010 (WAEMU requirement: 17 percent). - Tax revenue (excluding grants) nominally increased from 18.5 billion in 2006 to 32.4 billion in 2010. - Grants represented an average of more than 50 percent of budget revenue, increasing from 19.1 billion in 2006 to 50.4 billion in 2010. - Total expenditure increased from 58.7 billion in 2006 to 97.1 billion in 2010. - Expenditure financed with external resources increased from 17 billion in 2006 to 35.4 billion in 2010. - Ratio of wage bill to tax revenue declined from 96 percent to 65 percent in 2010. - Basic budget balance in respect of GDP registered an average deficit of -4 percent during the period. - Overall balance excluding net loans and grants widened from -27.2 billion in 2006 to -51.8 billion in 2010. ### External payments and debt - Average overall balance of payments surplus of CFAF 9.5 billion during 2006-2010; overall surplus declined to CFAF 5 billion in 2010 (previous years CFAF 12-14 billion). - Capital account averaged 23.7 billion; financial transactions averaged 5.8 billion; current account averaged -19.6 billion. - Persistent trade deficit averaged (-32.2 billion); services balance deterioration averaged (-18.5 billion); balance of transfers positive at an average of 36.9 billion. - At end-2009 public debt amounted to US$1,65.1 million, of which US$427.5 million in arrears. - Multilateral debt represented US$528.3 million (49.6 percent of total debt stock); bilateral debt represented 5.4 percent (including 30.11 percent with Paris Club creditors); commercial debt represented 0.02 percent of total debt stock. - Key multilateral donors: IDA, IMF, AfDB, ABEDA, IsDB, ECOWAS, EIB, OFAD, and OPEC. - IDA share: 57.49 percent of total multilateral debt; AfDB: 29.05 percent. - No arrears with IDA, AfDB, or the IMF reported. - HIPC completion point in December 2010 entailed forgiveness of more than 86.5 percent of debt; projected level to be just under CFAF 120 billion in 2015. ### Macroeconomic outlook 2011-2015 and assumptions - Projections based on: recent economic developments; ongoing/planned reforms; ECF with the IMF; strategic objectives under PRSP II. - Assumptions include: - (i) strengthening sociopolitical stability with tangible results from reforms in government, defense, and security; - (ii) continuation of efforts to modernize government finance management and improve revenue collection (increase in benchmark price of cashews from US$600 to US$750 per ton; increase in benchmark prices used by customs administrations to calculate import duties on rice, sugar, and wheat flour; reintroduction of taxes on alcoholic beverages; implementation of ASYCUDA ++ and harmonization with tax return systems for large importers) and containment of expenditure (specifically wages); - (iii) strengthening contribution of growth sectors (agriculture, agro-industry, fishery, and tourism) and diversification beyond cashews, rice, and cereals; - (iv) increase in public and private investment with more public development assistance, FDI, and additional resources expected from debt cancellation and improved business environment (opening of the Business Procedures Center and simplification of enterprise creation procedures); - (v) enhanced electricity production and distribution. ### Forecast scenarios for 2011-2015 - Baseline (trend) scenario: - Assumption: additional capital resources provided under PRSP II will not be mobilized or absorbed. - Real growth expected to remain at of 5.3 percent per year during 2011-2015. - "Moderate" scenario: - Assumption: only 50 percent of the additional capital resources provided under PRSP II would be absorbed or mobilized. - Expected average growth rate for the period: 6.5 percent. - "Optimistic" / best-case scenario: - Assumption: substantial growth in promising sectors and sustained fiscal performance, combined with mobilization of 100 percent of additional capital resources provided under PRSP II. *Source: _cr11353 - 5. Improve and expand social protection* ### 1. Baseline scenario ### 1. Baseline scenario ### Growth objective and overview - Growth objective for 2011-2015: achieve an average annual rate of 5 percent. - General price level projection: average of 3 percent during the period. - Investment expected to remain dynamic on average: 9.3 percent. - Final consumption expected to register a slight increase: 4 percent. - Exports of goods and services average growth in real terms: 6.1 percent (dominated by cashew exports (90 percent)). - Imports of goods and services real growth: 4.5 percent. - Direct investments increasing from 5 billion in 2011 to 9 billion in 2015. ### Primary sector projections - Sector overall average growth: increase by approximately 4.4 percent (agriculture 4.4 percent). - Expected subsector growth (annual rates and comparisons where given): - Agriculture: influenced by programs to diversify agricultural production and to improve cashew production. - Cattle breeding: target growth 5.2 percent (against average annual rate of 4.6 percent during 2006-2010). - Fishery: target growth 2.7 percent (against -0.3 percent during 2006-2010); fishery to benefit from construction works on the Port of Alto Bandim. - Forestry: average growth rate expected 3.5 percent per annum. - Table 10: Real growth rate in the sectors during the period 2011-2015 (selected rows) - Primary sector: 2011 3.8%; 2012 4.1%; 2013 4.4%; 2014 4.6%; 2015 4.9%. - Agriculture: 2011 4.0%; 2012 4.3%; 2013 4.5%; 2014 4.8%; 2015 5.1%. - Cattle breeding: 2011 4.9%; 2012 4.9%; 2013 5.2%; 2014 5.5%; 2015 5.6%. - Fishery: 2011 2.1%; 2012 2.3%; 2013 2.6%; 2014 3.1%; 2015 3.5%. - Forestry: 2011 3.1%; 2012 3.1%; 2013 3.4%; 2014 3.7%; 2015 3.9%. ### Secondary sector projections - Sector rebound anticipated: average growth rate 4 percent (against -0.4 percent during 2006-2010). - Drivers: agrofood subsector (accounts for 75 percent of production in the sector), construction, water and electricity, improved electricity distribution, major public works, elimination of productivity barriers due to insufficient energy production. - Table 10: Secondary sector details - Secondary sector: 2011 3.1%; 2012 3.5%; 2013 4.0%; 2014 4.5%; 2015 4.7%. - Mining activities: 2011 5.8%; 2012 6.4%; 2013 6.8%; 2014 7.0%; 2015 7.1%. - Agrofood: 2011 2.6%; 2012 2.9%; 2013 3.5%; 2014 4.0%; 2015 4.2%. - Other industries: 2011 4.4%; 2012 4.9%; 2013 5.2%; 2014 5.6%; 2015 5.8%. - Construction: 2011 5.2%; 2012 5.7%; 2013 6.2%; 2014 6.5%; 2015 6.7%. - Water and electricity: 2011 4.7%; 2012 4.9%; 2013 5.2%; 2014 5.4%; 2015 5.7%. ### Tertiary sector projections - Tertiary sector average growth: approximately 6.4 percent during 2011-2015. - Main contributors: transportation and telecommunications, trade, recovery of financial services, enhanced public administration execution through government reforms. - Table 10: Tertiary sector details - Tertiary sector: 2011 5.6%; 2012 6.1%; 2013 6.4%; 2014 6.9%; 2015 7.2%. - Transport and telecommunications: 2011 10.8%; 2012 10.9%; 2013 11.3%; 2014 11.4%; 2015 11.6%. - Trade: 2011 7.6%; 2012 7.9%; 2013 8.0%; 2014 8.5%; 2015 8.7%. - Financial services: 2011 1.3%; 2012 1.6%; 2013 2.1%; 2014 2.4%; 2015 2.8%. - Public administration services: 2011 -2.1%; 2012 -1.8%; 2013 -1.5%; 2014 -1.4%; 2015 -1.3%. - Other services: 2011 4.1%; 2012 4.2%; 2013 4.5%; 2014 4.7%; 2015 4.9%. ### Balance of payments and external sector - Balance of current account transactions expected to improve from -4.6 percent of GDP in 2011 to -1.9 percent of GDP in 2015. - Improvement components: - Balance of transfers: average growth of 9.8 percent. - Balance of trade: -8 percent of GDP in 2011 as against 6 percent in 2015. - Exports average: sustained increase of an average of 6 percent (with increased cashew performance). - Imports average: 3.5 percent. - Overall balance improvement: from 2.7 percent of GDP in 2011 to 4.6 percent of GDP in 2015, owing to sound capital account performance and financial operations. - Direct investments increasing: from 5 billion in 2011 to 9 billion in 2015. ### Government finance — revenue and expenditure - Total revenue projection: increase from 83.9 billion in 2011 to 120.7 billion in 2015; equivalent to an average increase of 5.3 percent during the period. - Average tax burden: should remain at 8.3 percent throughout the period. - Table 11: Projected Revenue 2011-2015 (in billions of CFA francs) - Total and grant revenue: 2011 83.9; 2012 100.1; 2013 107.4; 2014 113.9; 2015 120.7. - Budget revenue: 2011 47.0; 2012 49.8; 2013 53.3; 2014 57.2; 2015 61.1. - Tax revenue: 2011 35.0; 2012 37.4; 2013 40.1; 2014 43.0; 2015 46.0. - Non-tax revenue: 2011 11.9; 2012 12.4; 2013 13.2; 2014 14.1; 2015 15.1. - Grants: 2011 36.9; 2012 50.3; 2013 54.1; 2014 56.8; 2015 59.6. - Project grants: 2011 25.7; 2012 32.7; 2013 34.9; 2014 37.2; 2015 39.7. - Program grants: 2011 11.2; 2012 17.6; 2013 19.2; 2014 19.5; 2015 19.8. - Total expenditure projection: increase from CFAF 92.8 billion in 2011 to CFAF 123.0 billion in 2015. - Table 12: Projected Expenditure 2011-2015 (in billions of CFA francs) - Total expenditure and net borrowing: 2011 92.8; 2012 99.5; 2013 106.3; 2014 115.2; 2015 123.0. - Current expenditure: 2011 52.2; 2012 58.6; 2013 61.4; 2014 66.6; 2015 70.4. - Debt expenditure: 2011 2.2; 2012 2.0; 2013 2.0; 2014 1.8; 2015 1.7. - Capital expenditure: 2011 38.3; 2012 40.9; 2013 44.9; 2014 48.5; 2015 52.7. - Domestically financed: 2011 3.2; 2012 3.4; 2013 4.9; 2014 5.8; 2015 7.1. - Externally financed: 2011 35.1; 2012 37.5; 2013 40.0; 2014 42.7; 2015 45.6. ### Budget balances and fiscal outcomes - Primary balance: deficit widening from -3 billion in 2011 to -7.5 billion in 2015. - Overall balance (including grants): improves from -9 billion in 2011 to -2.3 billion in 2015. - Overall balance excluding grants and loans: remains negative and substantial as share of GDP, increasing from -10.5 percent in 2011 to -11.3 percent in 2015. - Table 13: Budget Balances 2011-2015 - Primary balances: 2011 -3.0; 2012 -6.8; 2013 -6.1; 2014 -7.7; 2015 -7.5. - Overall balance (commitment basis) including grants: 2011 -9.0; 2012 0.6; 2013 1.1; 2014 -1.3; 2015 -2.3. - Overall balance (commitment basis) not including net borrowing and grants / excluding grants: 2011 -45.9; 2012 -49.7; 2013 -53.0; 2014 -58.0; 2015 -61.9. - Overall balance (cash basis): 2011 -9.0; 2012 0.6; 2013 1.1; 2014 -1.3; 2015 -2.3. ### WAEMU convergence criteria assessment - First-order criteria: - Basic budget balance in respect of nominal GDP: 2011 -1.94%; 2012 -2.68%; 2013 -2.68%; 2014 -2.98%; 2015 -2.99% (only this criterion will not be reached, registering an average of -2.65 percent). - Non-accumulation of payment arrears: 0.0 (2011–2015). - Average annual inflation rate: 3.0 (2011–2015). - Ratio of total public debt stock/GDP: 2011 34.33; 2012 31.27; 2013 28.10; 2014 23.71; 2015 20.95 (debt-to-GDP ratio will be reached as the country has achieved the HIPC Initiative completion point). - Second-order criteria (none achieved despite some improvement): - Wage bill/budget revenue (in percent): 2011 65.43%; 2012 63.15%; 2013 61.57%; 2014 60.54%; 2015 59.95%. - Investments financed with internal resources /tax revenue (in percent): 2011 9.24%; 2012 9.22%; 2013 12.13%; 2014 13.57%; 2015 15.38% (substantial progress possible from 9.2 percent in 2011 to 15.3 percent in 2015). - Current account deficit excluding grants/GDP: 2011 -7.14%; 2012 -7.71%; 2013 -7.12%; 2014 -6.22%; 2015 -5.52% (current account deficit excluding grants as a share of GDP estimated at 5 percent in 2011, and -5.5 percent in 2015). - Tax burden: 2011 8.0%; 2012 8.2%; 2013 8.3%; 2014 8.4%; 2015 8.4% (average 8 percent during 2011-2015; falls short of WAEMU minimum of 17 percent). ### Key policy and implementation drivers (implied from projections) - Implement programs to diversify agricultural production and improve cashew production to meet primary sector targets. - Continue efforts to improve electricity distribution system and pursue major public works policy to support secondary sector rebound. - Leverage construction of Port of Alto Bandim to boost fishery subsector. - Protect social sectors (education and health) while controlling wage trends under government reform program. - Mobilize external resources and direct investments to support capital expenditure and overall balance improvements. *Source: _cr11353 - 1. Baseline scenario* ### 6.4 percent of GDP, enabling substantial financing with domestic resources for strategy ### 6.4 percent of GDP, enabling substantial financing with domestic resources for strategy expenditure ### Macroeconomic framework for PRSP II — Optimistic Scenario (table highlights) - Tax burden: 9.0 (2011); 9.8 (2012); 10.5 (2013); 11.1 (2014); 12.1 (2015); Average 2011-2015: 10.5 - Wage bill/budget revenue (in percent): 57.80% (2011); 51.91% (2012); 47.71% (2013); 44.36% (2014); 40.25% (2015); Average 2011-2015: 48.41% - Capital expenditure: 40.4 (2011); 45.0 (2012); 49.2 (2013); 54.3 (2014); 60.2 (2015); Average 2011-2015: 49.8 - Investments financed with own resources: 5.3 (2011); 7.6 (2012); 9.2 (2013); 11.6 (2014); 14.6 (2015); Average 2011-2015: 9.7 - Investments financed with external resources: 35.1 (2011); 37.5 (2012); 40.0 (2013); 42.7 (2014); 45.6 (2015); Average 2011-2015: 40.2 - PRSP II capital expenditure: 32.38 (2011); 32.38 (2012); 43.17 (2013); 43.17 (2014); 64.76 (2015); Average 2011-2015: 43.2 - Real GDP growth rate: 5.62% (2011); 6.58% (2012); 7.50% (2013); 8.50% (2014); 9.48% (2015); Average 2011-2015: 7.54% - Nominal GDP: 441.1 (2011); 468.0 (2012); 505.4 (2013); 551.3 (2014); 602.9 (2015); Average 2011-2015: 513.7 - Basic budget balance in respect of nominal GDP: -6.92% (2011); -7.02% (2012); -6.60% (2013); -6.14% (2014); -5.38% (2015); Average 2011-2015: -6.41% - Overall balance (commitment basis) - Including grants: -31.0 (2011); -20.0 (2012); -19.3 (2013); -19.8 (2014); -18.4 (2015); Average 2011-2015: -21.7 - Not including net borrowing and grants: -78.2 (2011); -79.3 (2012); -91.3 (2013); -92.2 (2014); -112.6 (2015); Average 2011-2015: -90.7 ### PRSP II financing — Optimistic scenario (narrative) - Overall assessed cost of the strategy: more than CFAF 227 billion for the period 2011-2015. - Expenditure distribution assumptions by year: 15 percent per annum during the first two years (2011–2012), 20 percent per annum during 2013 and 2014, and 30 percent in 2015. - Overall investment cost during 2011-2015: CFAF 216 billion. - Additional operating expenditure in connection with PRSP II: CFAF 11 billion. - Financing composition: 56.5 percent with own resources and 43.5 percent with external resources. - Theoretical financing deficit: zero under the assumption that 100 percent of requirements are financed through mobilization of external financing. - Actual financing deficit conditionality: the financing deficit will be proportional to the absence of external resources mobilized; excluding external support in the baseline and if no further external resources are mobilized, the deficit will exceed CFAF 98 billion during 2011-2015. ### Financing for the Optimistic Scenario (table highlights, in billions of CFA francs) - Overall cost of PRSP II (A): 34.08 (2011); 34.08 (2012); 45.44 (2013); 45.44 (2014); 68.17 (2015); TOTAL: 227.22 - Operating expenditure: 1.70 (2011); 1.70 (2012); 2.27 (2013); 2.27 (2014); 3.41 (2015); TOTAL: 11.36 - Capital expenditure: 32.38 (2011); 32.38 (2012); 43.17 (2013); 43.17 (2014); 64.76 (2015); TOTAL: 215.86 - Financing with own resources (B): 22.05 (2011); 23.40 (2012); 25.27 (2013); 27.57 (2014); 30.14 (2015); TOTAL: 128.43 - Financing gap (C = B − A): -12.03 (2011); -10.68 (2012); -20.17 (2013); -17.88 (2014); -38.02 (2015); TOTAL: -98.79 - External financing (D): 12.03 (2011); 10.68 (2012); 20.17 (2013); 17.88 (2014); 38.02 (2015); TOTAL: 98.79 - Investments (project loans and grants): 40.36 (2011); 46.94 (2012); 50.02 (2013); 54.25 (2014); 61.80 (2015); TOTAL: 253.37 - Additional gap (C + D): 0.00 (2011); 0.00 (2012); 0.00 (2013); 0.00 (2014); 0.00 (2015); TOTAL: 0.00 ### PRSP II financing risks - Political and institutional risks: - Changes in the political situation affecting a stable operating framework for partners. - Risks primarily connected with reform in the defense and security sector, potentially affecting implementation of investments. - Insufficient capital expenditure may significantly affect growth and compromise achievement of 2015 goals. - Natural risks: - Rainfall is the key factor affecting agricultural production. - Insufficient rainfall can lead to poor cashew production and seriously reduce external revenue. - Economic risks: - Price trends on international markets, specifically cashews and crude oil. - Energy subsector vulnerability to international oil price fluctuations. - Financing mobilization risk: - Failure to mobilize all expected external resources is a considerable risk; strategy success relies on the assumption that all required resources will be mobilized. - Recommended approach: - Mechanisms to minimize these risks should be incorporated into PRSP II implementation strategies. ### Assessment and lessons from PRSP I monitoring and evaluation — Key findings - Intended monitoring and evaluation framework components (PRSP I): - Institutional framework for regular, inclusive participation. - Operational programming framework (priority program for 2005 and priority action plan 2006-2008). - Information system based on: (i) quarterly reports by research and planning offices (GEP) of ministries, and (ii) an annual consolidated monitoring report. - A base of key indicators for monitoring, by core area. - Implementation shortfalls six years after PRSP I adoption: 1. Institutional framework: - Steering Committee intended semiannual meetings met only once. - PRSP implementation and monitoring unit (CISD) has yet to become operational. - Sectoral (GEP) and regional linkages, when active, do monitoring not included in general PRSP framework. - Causes: technical (undefined missions/tasks), institutional (absence of monitoring culture, intra-ministerial instability, insufficient engagement), human resources shortage (qualified personnel), and lack of financial incentives. - Participation and ownership in PRSP execution failed to materialize due to no operational institutional framework. 2. Operational programming framework: - Pluriannual action plan (PAP 2006-2008) adopted with delays; insufficiently realistic; failed to prioritize activities and financing. - Available financing represented approximately 20 percent of the total. - PAP did not identify indicators for monitoring. 3. Statistical information and database: - National statistics system fragility: limited availability and questionable reliability of government statistics. - Lack of capacities to verify and control quality of data collection; inadequate training for primary data production personnel. - Weaknesses affect product, performance, and impact indicators and data on human and financial resources. - Ineffective staff distribution by region/subarea; absence of reconciliation between Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Civil Service, and sectoral ministries. - Expenditure monitoring problems: comprehensiveness, reliability, and alignment with PRSP objectives, especially for external assistance. - Project to establish database for public investment projects produced no tangible results. 4. Monitoring information system: - Two outturn reports produced: final report on PRSP assessment and monitoring (adopted August 2009) and second report on the 2009 fiscal year (August 2010). - Ownership limited; midterm reports (sectoral and regional research offices) were not produced; no permanent information system implemented. 5. Monitoring and evaluation indicators: - Indicator construction occurred with delays (2010 Priority Action Plan). - Production of performance and impact indicators largely dependent on surveys conducted only in 2010. - Neither MEPIR nor sectoral ministries identified appropriate intermediate indicators for annual sectoral monitoring. ### Proposed approach for PRSP II monitoring and evaluation - Core principles to address constraints: - Pragmatism: focus first on operational monitoring and evaluation indicators. - Accuracy: define terms of reference for monitoring and evaluation players; agree on a stable set of indicators; identify clear targets for 2015. - Realism: reflect structural constraints and focus on simple, low-cost mechanisms and tools. - Expectation: PRSP II monitoring and evaluation should benefit from recent progress and available data sources. ### Main advantages and new opportunities for an operational monitoring and evaluation system - Renewable statistical base on population living conditions: - Current, broad information base available from 2009 general population census, MICS4, and ILAP 2. - Further studies (nutritional survey, survey on border flows, topical studies) can support the PRSP II benchmark scenario. - Expectation that statistical tables will be broken down by gender and age categories. - Adoption of sectoral strategies and action plans: - Sectoral reference frameworks adopted or in preparation in 2009-2010 to define priorities and goals for PRSP. - Improvement of government finance monitoring instruments: - Integrated government finance management system (SIGFIP) budget preparation and execution modules functional since 2009; accounting module implementation in progress. - Integrated Debt Management System—SYGADE installed during third-quarter of 2009. - Automated System for Customs Data—AYSCUDA++ installed in August 2010. - New payment information management system under study. - Aid management platform (PGA) expected to be implemented from 2011 with support from Development Gateway. - Emergence of projects to reorganize sectoral information systems: - Ministry of Health/INASA assigned to establish essential indicators for annual sectoral monitoring. - Education sector work in progress to benefit from the Fast Track Initiative, leading to definition of essential indicators. - Information, Planning, and Assessment Office for the Basic Education System expected to establish a new model sectoral information system in 2011. - Coordination of budget support: - Joint Framework for Aid Coordination (QCAO) signed in February 2009 by the Ministry of Finance and six technical and financial partners (Spain, France, Portugal, the European Union, IMF, and World Bank). - QCAO provides a joint forum with quarterly meetings (April, July, October, and January). - Planning for development of the national statistics system: - June 2010 inventory completed; national statistical development strategy (ENDE) prepared to cover the period 2011- (text truncated in source). *Source: _cr11353 - 6.4 percent of GDP, enabling substantial financing with domestic resources for strategy* ### 2015. This strategy should lead to an operational action plan and budget for priority actions. ### _cr11353 - 2015. This strategy should lead to an operational action plan and budget for priority actions. ### Adoption of WAEMU harmonized framework for public financial management - The new March and June 2009 directives applicable to all eight WAEMU countries have been transposed to Guinea-Bissau’s legislation. - A new organic law on finance laws was adopted in March 2010. - Plans to migrate from resource-based budgeting to performance-based budgeting: - All ministries and institutions will be required to adopt program budgets by 2017. - Annual execution plans will be prepared for each program, based on a selection of performance indicators for each objective. - Under the law, annual progress reports will be prepared to assess the results in connection with the established goals for each program, which will subsequently be appended to the regulating law submitted to the Peoples' National Assembly. - Expected benefits: - Establish a mechanism to monitor ministerial policies structured on predefined objectives and linked with clearly identified budget allocations. - Gradual implementation of new arrangements. ### Sector strategies and programming frameworks (selected) - Security: - Strategy for restructuring and modernization of the defense and security sector (2006). - Priority plan for defense and security reform (PPRSDS) (approved in January 2010). - Justice: - National justice policy (March 2010). - Agriculture: - National program for agricultural investment (PNIA) 2011-2015 (2010). - Fishery: - Strategic plan 2011-2015 for the fishery sector (prepared in 2009). - Electricity / water: - Sectoral electricity policy (draft submitted to the CM; March 2010). - Water and electricity reform program (March 2010). - Education: - Political charter for the education sector 2010-2010. - Three-year development plan for the education sector 2011-2013 (completed in June 2010). - Health: - Second National health development plan 2011-2017 (adopted in May 2010). - Gender: - National policy on gender equality and equity (PNIEG). - Note: There is a charter on agricultural policy prepared in 1997 and revised in 2002 (not current). ### PRSP II monitoring and evaluation system — Institutional framework - The reformulated institutional framework is organized on a simplified system including: - A political dialog and steering structure (Steering Committee, CP). - A technical and administrative monitoring structure (Technical Validation Committee). - Sectoral Programming and Monitoring Committees coordinated with Sectoral Research and Planning Offices (GEPs). - Steering Committee (CP): - Functions: (i) provide major thrusts for PRSP implementation; (ii) approve priority action plans (PAP) and revisions; (iii) validate annual PRSP progress reports and monitoring and evaluation reports; (iv) make recommendations to improve implementation, monitoring, and assessment. - Composition: chaired by the Prime Minister; includes government, People’s National Assembly, private sector, civil society, development partners; donors present to facilitate high-level cooperation. - Meetings: regular semiannual meetings; extraordinary meetings when justified; end-of-year meeting to take stock of 12 months of execution. - Responsibilities include monitoring MDGs and aid efficiency; twofold representation of the Ministry of Economy, Planning, and Regional Integration (MEPIR) and the Ministry of Foreign Business on the Technical Committee to facilitate joint monitoring of PRSP and development assistance. - Commission must include women and organizations operating in gender and women’s issues to ensure cross-cutting issues are monitored. - Technical Committee: - Operational structure providing technical coordination for PRSP implementation, monitoring, and evaluation. - Meets quarterly; chaired by the minister responsible for planning. - Composition: strategic MEPIR directorates (Planning and National Statistics Institute), Ministry of Finance (Budget), Ministry responsible for poverty reduction, and representatives from implementing ministries. - Sectoral Programming and Monitoring Committees (CSPS): - Serve as monitoring and evaluation centers for sectoral programs, policies, and strategies. - Centralize information on monitoring of each sector and region; benchmark structures for the Technical Committee and its secretariat. - To be established by Research and Planning Offices and the Administrative and Financial Directorate of ministries involved. - Emphasis on a pragmatic approach with simple mechanisms to optimize existing resources. - Capacity building: - Training seminars on diagnostics, planning, and monitoring and assessment by gender will be carried out during and after preparation of the PRSP II priority action plan. ### PRSP II monitoring and evaluation system — Rationale and linkages - Architecture objectives: - (i) simplify the institutional framework; (ii) avoid dispersion of monitoring and evaluation responsibilities at the central level; (iii) strengthen responsibilities of sectoral ministries in PRSP monitoring and evaluation; (iv) involve technical and financial partners in high-level dialog; (v) ensure PRSP Implementation and Monitoring Unit (CISD) is effectively operational within MEPIR. - System is supported de facto by other cooperation or operational management organizations: - (i) QCAO (Joint Framework for Budget Aid Coordination) as essential framework for coordination between government and donors to monitor certain PRSP components; - (ii) structures prepared to stimulate regional and municipal development. ### PRSP II monitoring and evaluation system — Information system organization - System operation will reflect: - (i) strengthening upstream production of information and development of databases; (ii) current procedures to ensure circulation, control, and analysis of data. - Two main PRSP components in the information system: - (i) monitoring of poverty and household living conditions (coordinated by INE); - (ii) monitoring of PRSP implementation (coordinated by the Directorate-General of Planning). - Activities for monitoring of poverty and household living conditions: 1. Production planning for data from surveys (planning of surveys, mobilization of financial resources, preparation of specifications). 2. Systematic breakdown of all data and information by age and gender. 3. Development of routine information systems to produce annual administrative data (agriculture, education, health, water and sanitation, social solidarity infrastructures, employment, security and justice); promote projects supporting primary data collectors and producers (directors of schools, health center managers, etc.). 4. Quantitative and qualitative sectoral studies on gender. 5. Consolidation of the DevInfo database, a central storage instrument for social statistics. 6. Production of an annual monitoring framework for indicators (key impact and performance indicators). 7. Impetus for mechanisms to check the reliability of information. 8. Reorganization and development of institutional capacities of services in the national statistics system. 9. Continuing education of statistics services professionals. - Activities for monitoring of PRSP implementation: 1. Production of quarterly budget outturn statements based on Integrated Public Finance Management System (administrative, functional, and economic classification of expenditure). 2. Production of an annual report on PIP execution based on information from research and planning offices, information on external aid, and specific data collected for selected strategic projects. 3. Production of a midterm and final report on gender disparities, inequalities, and disparities in trends. 4. Establishment of a management platform for external aid. 5. Gradual introduction of program budgets (pluriannual expenditure programming documents) based on a roadmap covering the period 2011-2017. 6. Development of a management system of ministerial program budgets to provide a model instrument for processing information on budget programs (2012/2013). 7. Accompanying activities: management training, restructuring of services in departments related to WAEMU directives implementation, availability of information and equipment, etc. - Transition arrangements: - Considering time required for the external aid management platform to become fully operational, a provisional database will be fed with data collected quarterly from state institutions (MEPIR, Ministry of Finance, National Election Commission, etc.) and development partners (including key international NGOs). ### PRSP II evaluation component and sequencing - Evaluation component (third subsystem of CRESMIC) to be developed when sound monitoring capacities established: - Initial objective: collect and explore midterm and final assessments of projects financed by development partners. - Potential supplementation by end of the period with assessment activity structured on national assessment policy, annual assessment plan, and operational research by an observatory-type organization, if first two subsystems function effectively. ### PRSP II monitoring system development stages - Minimum system (2011-2012): - Monitoring based on annual PRSP II implementation report. - Preparation of the report for fiscal year N begins in January of N+1 and will be validated and published on the website no later than April. - Synthetic report supplemented with: - An annex detailing physical and financial execution of the Priority Action Plan. - A panel of monitoring indicators divided into two components: key impact and performance indicators; and annual intermediate sectoral monitoring indicators. - Reinforced system (2013-2015): - Once minimum system functional, reinforce with sectoral monitoring reports (for at least key PRSP II sectors) and quarterly reports. - Annual performance report supplemented with: - Quarterly synthetic reports containing: (i) a summary page (main points), (ii) a map on execution of major programs and projects, and (iii) a map on ministry expenditure execution (administrative, functional, and economic classification). - An annual performance report on ministerial programs, in terms of budget reform inspired by the 2009 WAEMU directives; a roadmap will cover procedures and timetable for development of ministry programs. - In 2011-2012, program budgets may be developed and consolidated in four sectors (education, health, agriculture, and infrastructure). - Preparation of annual progress reports will begin in 2013. * _cr11353 - 2015. This strategy should lead to an operational action plan and budget for priority actions._ ### 4. System of indicators ### 4. System of indicators ### Overview of the proposed system - The system is based on two panels: - First panel: impact and performance indicators (majority measurable with surveys every three to five years). - Contains key indicators on monetary poverty, income inequality, and deterioration of living conditions. - Includes all of the country’s potentially measurable MDG indicators. - Updating depends on household surveys (Rapid Poverty Assessment Survey—ILAP, MICS, and 123 Survey [inquérito 123]) and may be carried out every 3-5 years as resource mobilization permits. - Second panel: supports annual monitoring of PRSP II policy implementation (Annual Progress Report). - Focuses on a selection of annually measurable indicators based on information already available or to be made available with minimal investment to strengthen routine data collection. - Preparation of the priority action plan provides an opportunity to supplement this panel if required. - For difficult-to-measure areas, international benchmarks will be used for certain indicators (Human Development Index—IDH, World Governance Indicators, and Doing Business). - Respective tables will be provided in an annex. ### MPEIR information-sharing platform - The MPEIR has established a website (www.mepir-gov.org) where PRSP II documents and related reports will be uploaded, including: - Available strategy papers (PRSP II, sectoral political charters, and sectoral action plans); - Documentation related to PRSP II implementation and monitoring: regulations and timetables; organizational texts; monitoring and evaluation plan; and annual implementation reports; - Tables of the key indicators and annual sectoral performance indicators; - Monitoring report on the MDGs and the Paris Declaration; - PAP/program budgets for the sectoral ministries. ### Table 19: List of PRSP Impact Indicators (selected entries) - Human development - HDI — Human Development Report (HDR) — Annual — UNDP - HDI ranking — HDR — Annual — UNDP - Poverty and social inequality (sources, periodicity, manager, CRESMIC and MDG codes preserved as in source) - Poverty incidence (a) — ILAP — 3 years — INS — CRESMIC Code 10 - Depth of poverty (a) — ILAP — 3 years — INS — CRESMIC Code 11 - Severity of poverty (a) — ILAP — 3 years — INS — CRESMIC Code 12 - Proportion of the population living on less than one PPA dollar per day — ILAP — 3 years — INS — CRESMIC Code 13 — MDG Code 1 - Poverty deviation index — ILAP — 3 years — INS — CRESMIC Code 14 — MDG Code 2 - Share of the poorest quintile in national consumption — ILAP — 3 years — INS — CRESMIC Code 15 — MDG Code 3 - Gini index — ILAP — 3 years — INS — CRESMIC Code 16 ### Annex IV — 4.1 List of key PRSP II monitoring indicators (selected benchmarks, targets, sources) - Poverty indicators (benchmarks and targets) - Poverty incidence (a): - Year 2010 Value 69.3% — Target 2013 52.0% — Target 2015 34.6% — Source ILAP — Periodicity 3 years — Responsible agency INE — CRESMIC Code 10 - Cut the proportion of people living on less than one PPA dollar per day in half: - Year 2010 Value 33% — Target 2013 24.75% — Target 2015 16.5% — Source ILAP — Periodicity 3 years — Responsible agency INE — CRESMIC Code 13 — MDG Code 1 - Poverty deviation index: - Source ILAP — Periodicity 3 years — Responsible agency INE — CRESMIC Code 14 — MDG Code 2 - Share of the poorest quintile in national consumption: - Source ILAP — Periodicity 3 years — Responsible agency INE — CRESMIC Code 15 — MDG Code 3 ### Indicators by core area and subarea (selected indicators and exact numeric benchmarks) - CORE AREA 1: Strengthening the rule of law and republican institutions - 1.1 Defense and security sector reform (RSDS) - Political stability and absence of violence — 2009 - 0.49 — World Governance Indicators (WGI) — World Bank — Annual - 1.2 Fight proliferation of light and small caliber weapons and drug trafficking - Percentage of weapons held by the security forces registered and stored under internationally recognized standards — ND — Administrative registers — Ministry of Defense — Annual - 1.3 Strengthen justice and the rule of law - Index of public satisfaction with the legal system — ND — Specific survey or satisfaction survey/public services or Standardized Questionnaire on Basic Well-Being Indicators (QUIBB) module — INE, Min. of Justice — 3 years — CRESMIC Indicator 57 noted in source - Percentage of cases tried on matters filed with the regional courts — AR — Judiciary statistics — Min. Justice — Annual — Target 60 - 1.4 Civic participation, dialog, and national reconciliation - Rate of participation in elections — Legislative 2008 82%; Presidential 2009 60% — Electoral statistics — Electoral commission / Min. of Interior — Each election - Percentage of women deputies — 2008 10% — Parliamentary statistics — National Assembly — Annual — CRESMIC 56 then 12 in table - 1.5 Decentralization and local development - Percentage of public resources allocated to local governments — AR — Budget statistics — Min. Finance — Annual — Target 61 - CORE AREA 2: Streamlining and improvement of government finance management - 2.1 Reform of public administration and capacity building - Wage bill/budget revenue (percent) — 2009 75.6% — Target 35% — State budget outturn statement — Ministry of Finance — Annual - Proportion of public administration recruitment carried out by competitive examination — ND — Administrative registers — MRAFPT, Sectoral ministries — Annual - 2.2 Government finance management reforms - Overall budget execution rate — AR — Government finance statistics — Ministry of Finance — Annual - Non-accumulation of domestic payment arrears (in thousand million CFA francs) — 2008 11 — Government finance statistics — Ministry of Finance — Annual - Tax burden as a percentage of GDP (WAEMU convergence criterion) — 2010 7% — Government finance statistics / National Accounts — Ministry of Finance / INE — Annual — CRESMIC Code 7 - Current expenditure as a percentage of GDP — 2009 23.04% — Government finance statistics — Ministry of Finance — Annual - CORE AREA 3: Promote sustainable economic development - 3.1 Stabilization of the macroeconomic framework - Real GDP growth rate — 2010 3.5% — Target 2013 4.7% — Target 2015 5.5% — National Accounts — INE — Annual — CRESMIC Code 3 - Inflation rate (WAEMU convergence criterion) — 2010 2.3% — Price statistics (IHPC) — INE — Annual — CRESMIC Code 1 - Basic budget balance as a percentage of GDP (WAEMU convergence criterion) — 2009 - 10.66% — Government finance statistics — Ministry of Finance — Annual — CRESMIC Code 9 - 3.2 Development of basic economic infrastructures - Kilometers of asphalt roads — 2010 770 km — Infrastructure statistics — Ministry of Infrastructure — Annual — CRESMIC Code 49 - Kilometers of rehabilitated or repaired roads — 2009 400 km — Infrastructure statistics — Ministry of Infrastructure (DGPE) — Annual — CRESMIC Code 50 - Electricity coverage ratio — 2010 16% — General Population and Housing Census (RGPH); ILAP/QUIBB — INE — 3 years — CRESMIC Code 38 - Number of fixed and mobile telephone clients per population of 1,000 — AD — Administrative excerpts / Telephone operators — Annual — CRESMIC Code 43.44 / 47 in table - 3.3 Improve the climate for business and private sector promotion - Time required to establish an enterprise (in days) — 2010 213 — Doing Business — World Bank — Annual - Number of private enterprises created and registered with the one-stop window — 2010 144 — Administrative registers — Enterprise Formation Center (One-stop window) — Annual - 3.4 Support for growth sectors - Productivity increase in the agriculture sector — Production (National Accounts) — INE, Min. Agriculture — Annual — CRESMIC Codes 45, 46, 47 - Maize 2010 10,540 - Rice 2010 154,240 - Cassava 2010 75,326 - Cashews 2010 135,275 - Share of subsectors of agriculture, livestock, and fishery in GDP — 2010 39.8% — Target 2013 33.9% — Target 2015 30.2% — National Accounts — INE — Annual — CRESMIC Code 48 - Changes in exports in value terms (millions of CFAF) and in percentage of total: - Cashews (processed and unprocessed) 2010 32,085 — Foreign trade statistics — INE — Annual - Other agricultural products 2010 407 - Mining products 2010 54 - Promote tourism — Number of incoming tourists — ND — Policy registers — Min. Interior — Annual - Employment — Unemployment rate (Men, Women, Total) 2009 18.12%; 4.62%; 10.54% — RGPH; ILAP; 1-2 Survey; QUIBB; MICS — INE — 3 years — CRESMIC Code 32 - Percentage of nonagricultural women employees — ND — RGPH; ILAP; 1-2 Survey; QUIBB; MICS — INE — 3 years — CRESMIC Code 36 — MDG Code 11 - 3.5 Preserving the environment and natural resources - Percentage of households that use solid fuel (firewood, wood-based charcoal) — 2006 98.4% — RGPH; ILAP; 1-2 Survey; QUIBB; MICS — INE — 3 years — CRESMIC Code 55 — MDG Code 29 - Proportion of areas protected to preserve biodiversity — ND — Environmental stat. Awareness and Education for the Environment and Development (SEEDD) — Annual — CRESMIC Code 54 — MDG Code 26 - CORE AREA 4: Improve quality of services in the social sectors - 4.1 Education - Net primary school enrollment rate — 2009 67% (MICS) — Target Year 2015 100% — RGPH, ILAP, MICS — Min. National Education, INE — 3 years — CRESMIC Code 27 — MDG Code 6 - Primary school completion rate — 2006 4.1% — Scholastic statistics — Min. National Education, INE — Annual — CRESMIC Code 28 — MDG Code 7 - Literacy rate for persons 15 years of age and over — 2009 Men 52.04%; Women 35.88%; Total 43.72% — RGPH, ILAP, MICS — Min. National Education, INE — 3 years — CRESMIC Code 10 - 4.2 Health and nutrition - Percentage of births attended by qualified health personnel — 2009 44% (MICS) — MICS, ILAP, QUIBB, Health and reproduction survey — Ministry of Health, INE — 3 years — CRESMIC Code 22 — MDG Code 17 - Infant-juvenile mortality rate — 2009 158‰ — RGPH, MICS, ILAP/QUIBB, Health and reproduction survey — Ministry of Health, INE — 3 years — CRESMIC Code 19 — MDG Code 13 - Infant mortality rate — 2009 103‰ — RGPH, MICS, ILAP/QUIBB, Health and reproduction survey — Ministry of Health, INE — 3 years — CRESMIC Code 18 — MDG Code 14 - Antigen vaccine coverage ratio (BCG, Measles, DTC3, Polio, Yellow fever) — 2009 93%; 61%; 76%; 73%; 49% — MICS, Health and reproduction survey, health statistics — Ministry of Health, INE — 3 years — CRESMIC Codes aligned to MDG Indicator 15 for measles - Number of orphans with HIV/AIDS — 2009 9,700 (UN-AIDS est.) — MICS, Health and reproduction surveys — Ministry of Health, INE — 3 years — CRESMIC Code 20 - Rate of HIV prevalence among pregnant women 15-24 years of age — 2010 3.2% — Centennial study — Ministry of Health / National Institute of Public Health — Annual — CRESMIC Code 18 - Percentage of underweight children under five years of age — 2006 19.4% — RGPH, MICS, ILAP/QUIBB, Health and reproduction survey, food survey — INE — 3 years — CRESMIC Code 25 — MDG Code 4 - 4.3 Water and sanitation - Proportion of the population with access to drinking water — 2009 66% (MICS) — RGPH, MICS, ILAP, EDS, Survey 1-2 — INE — 3 years — CRESMIC Code 37 — MDG Code 30 - Proportion of the population with access to an improved sanitation system — 2009 16% (MICS) — RGPH, MICS, ILAP, EDS, Survey 1-2 — INE — 3 years — CRESMIC Code 39 — MDG Code 31 - 4.5 Social security and housing - Proportion of the population with access to home occupancy security — 2009 73.1% (RGPH) — RGPH, MICS, ILAP, EDS, Survey 1-2 — INE — 3 years — CRESMIC Code 40 — MDG Code 32 *Source: 4. System of indicators (PRSP II monitoring system and annex tables).* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/_cr11353.pdf_