## _cr12131 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [_cr12131](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/_cr12131.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/_cr12131.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/_cr12131.pdf.json) --- ### Introduction and macroeconomic context - Republic of Djibouti: independence June 27, 1977; surface area 23,000 km2; maritime coast 370 kilometers. - Population: 800,000. - Climate: desert; rainfall nearly everywhere below 200 mm per year; average temperature exceeds 40°C between May and September. - Economic structure: - Services: over 80 percent of GDP; employ close to 60 percent of the active population. - Primary sector: approximately 3 percent of GDP. - Manufacturing: approximately 16.3 percent of GDP. - Per capita GDP: US$800 in PPP terms. - UN Human Development Report (2007) ranking: 154 of 177 countries. - Growth drivers since 2006: increase in FDI; Port of Doraleh opening; livestock re-exports center; extension of Free Zone. - Recent growth and prices: - 2009: GDP growth estimated at approximately 5 percent. - Inflation in 2009 down from 2008 due to contraction in international food and commodity prices. ### PRSP (2004) review and poverty status - Historical deterioration and social indicators: - Per capita income fell by over 25 percent relative to 1984. - Government budget deficit reached 10.1 percent of GDP in 1995. - Poverty incidence (1996 → 2002): - Extreme monetary poverty: 34.5 percent → 42.2 percent. - Relative poverty: 64.9 percent → 74.4 percent. - 2002 social indicators: - Gross enrollment ratio (primary): 42.7 percent. - Literacy rate (aged 15+): 18.3 percent. - Infant mortality rate: 94.6‰. - Infant-juvenile mortality rate: 106.2‰. - PRSP medium-term (horizon 2006) targets and outcomes: - Target: raise average GDP growth to 4.6 percent (2004–2006). Outcome: growth averaged 3.7 percent. - Target: extreme poverty to 36.1 percent. - Target: gross enrollment ratio to 73 percent. EDIM (2006) net enrollment ratio in primary: 66.2 percent; gender parity: 0.98; literacy women 15–24: 47.5 percent. - Health: IMR 67 permil; infant-juvenile mortality 94 permil. - Spatial concentration of poverty: - City of Djibouti contributes 65.2 percent of relative poverty and 57.4 percent of extreme poverty. - Arrondissements 4 and 5 (41.8 percent of population) contribute 51.1 percent of overall extreme poverty and 47.1 percent of relative poverty. ### INDS strategic framework (2008–2012) and vision - INDS: second-generation PRSP, launched January 9, 2007; period 2008–2012; rolling updates planned. - Vision (President, January 2007): transform Djibouti by 2015 into a peaceful, modern, fair, open, economically efficient, better managed country where social disunity, poverty, marginalization, and exclusion are fought and ultimately overcome. - Objective: sustain integrated policies and reforms for strong and equitable economic growth and sustainable reductions in unemployment and poverty. ### INDS strategy — four pillars (summary) - Pillar 1 — Growth, macroeconomic stability, competitiveness: - Stabilize macroeconomic framework and implement structural reforms. - Establish legal and institutional framework conducive to investment; remove obstacles to private sector. - Promote Djibouti as regional economic and financial platform; develop infrastructure; reduce production factor costs. - Pillar 2 — Human resources, urban/rural development, environment: - Focus on quality in health and education; employment and vocational training; food security; access to water. - National Strategy for Integrating Women into Development: decision-making, health, education, economics; mainstream gender. - Pillar 3 — Reduce poverty and assist vulnerable groups: - Labor-intensive approaches to combat unemployment; promote microfinance; social safety nets for street children, nomads, displaced persons. - Improve access to water and basic services; target outskirts of Djibouti‑Ville (districts 4 and 5), regional towns, rural areas. - Pillar 4 — Political, local, economic and financial governance: - Strengthen planning and management capacities; modernize tools; strengthen government expenditure management for fairness and efficiency. ### Overall INDS cost and distribution (2008–2012) - Valuation as at January 31, 2010: - Overall cost of the INDS Prior Actions Matrix over 2008–2012: DF 294.7 billion, i.e., US$1.65 billion, or euros 1,17 billion. - Almost 41 percent (about US$684.147 million) allocated for measures in support of the MDGs. - Almost 59 percent of investments represent efforts over and above the MDGs. - Grand total (in thousands of DF): - GRAND TOTAL FOR THE INDS: 294 630 638 (100.00%) - PILLAR 1: 102 825 783 (34.90%) - PILLAR 2: 151 536 799 (51.43%) - PILLAR 3: 26 254 947 (8.91%) - PILLAR 4: 14 013 110 (4.76%) ### Financing the INDS — secured resources and gaps - Total cost reiterated: DF 294.6 billion over 2008–2012. - Domestic financing: - Domestically funded investments (excluding current expenditure) in government budget: about DF 35 billion over five years (US$198 million) — approximately 12 percent of overall INDS costs. - External financing: - External financing resources in place: DF 128.5 billion (approximately US$723 million) — 44 percent of overall cost. - Outstanding financing gap: - Funds to be mobilized: DF 130.9 billion (approximately US$736 million) — 44.4% funding sought; % in place: 43.6%; % in place GOV: 12.0%. - Sectoral shares of INDS requirements: - Energy: 16 percent. - Water and sanitation: 14 percent. - Public debt context: - External public debt (outstanding amount payable) estimated at over DF 100.9 billion in 2008 — 58 percent of GDP. - Debt trending upward due to ongoing public investment program; Djibouti has not benefited from debt relief. - Government appeals for remaining financing resources to be provided in the form of grants to meet public deficit objectives and ensure macroeconomic stability. ### Key financial breakdowns and sub-sector funding (selected exact figures) - Global funding table headline figures (DF thousands): - INDS GRAND TOTAL (GROSS): 294,630,638 - Financing in place: 35,262,305 (Gov. DJ) - Donors and Lenders: 128,496,334 - Total in place: 163,758,640 - Funds to be mobilized: 130,871,998 - % in place: 43.6%; % in place GOV: 12.0%; % to be identified: 44.4% - Pillar highlights (total needs; funds to be mobilized; % in place GOV; % to be identified): - PILLAR 1: 102,825,783; Funds to be mobilized 27,359,939; % in place GOV: 12.8%; Funding sought: 26.6%. - PILLAR 2: 151,536,799; Funds to be mobilized 82,108,429; % in place GOV: 8.8%; Funding sought: 54.2%. - PILLAR 3: 26,254,947; Funds to be mobilized 13,612,016; % in place GOV: 19.0%; Funding sought: 51.8%. - PILLAR 4: 14,013,110; Funds to be mobilized 7,791,613; % in place GOV: 26.4%; Funding sought: 55.6%. - Selected sub-sector specifics (in thousands of DF): - STRATEGIC PILLAR-1: Energy and natural resources: Total needs 47,445,160; Financing in place Gov. DJ 8,018,351; Donors 26,122,060; Total in place 34,140,412; Funds to be mobilized 13,304,749; % in place: 55.1%; % in place GOV: 16.90%; % to be identified: 28.0%. - STRATEGIC PILLAR-2: Development of Human Capital: Total needs 57,704,852; Financing in place Gov. DJ 6,280,446; Donors 27,332,958; Total in place 33,613,404; Funds to be mobilized 24,091,448; % in place: 47.4%; % in place GOV: 10.9%; % to be identified: 41.7%. - Health: Total needs 28,241,518; Financing in place Gov. DJ 2,887,297; Donors 13,172,136; Funds to be mobilized 12,182,085; % in place: 46.6%; % in place GOV: 10.2%; % to be identified: 43.1%. - Education, Literacy: Total needs 17,928,145; Financing in place Gov. DJ 2,610,361; Donors 12,878,186; Funds to be mobilized 2,439,598; % in place: 71.8%; % in place GOV: 14.6%; % to be identified: 13.6%. - STRATEGIC PILLAR-4: National statistics system: Total needs 4,115,104; Financing in place Gov. DJ 300,000; Donors 348,000; Total in place 648,000; Funds to be mobilized 3,467,104; % in place: 8.5%; % in place GOV: 7.3%; % to be identified: 84.3%. - Framework for the National System for Monitoring and Evaluation of the INDS: Total needs 663,812; Financing in place Gov. DJ 100,000; Donors 157,514; Funds to be mobilized 406,298; % in place: 23.7%; % in place GOV: 15.1%; % to be identified: 61.2%. ### Implementation arrangements, M&E, and statistical system strengthening - Implementation principles: proximity, transparency, participation, responsiveness, program approach, national execution, results-based management, synergies, harmonization, coordination. - Institutional framework and bodies: - Presidential Decree N° 2007-0106/PRE (February 6, 2007) organizes INDS institutional framework for design, implementation, M&E. - State Secretariat for National Solidarity (SESN) created by Presidential Decree N° 2008-0093/PRE (April 3, 2008) to prepare, coordinate, monitor and evaluate social development and poverty reduction policies; SESN collaborates with Ministry of Economy and Finance and Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. - Three implementation commissions: “Economic and Social Development” Commission; “Human Capital” Commission; “Governance” Commission — co-chaired by technical partners and national agencies under SESN and Ministry of Economy, Finance, Planning, and Privatization. - INDS Technical Steering Committee and Technical Unit for Harmonization, Coordination, and Support for Implementation established; Economic Commission for Africa (CEA) to provide strategic technical assistance under memorandum of cooperation. - Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E): - Historical M&E handicaps: unfamiliarity with performance-oriented management; scarcity and unreliability of basic/current statistical data; constraints on DISED; lack of General Census of Population and Housing (addressed in 2009); minimal coordination and limited human resource capacity. - Key measures adopted: - General Census of Population and Housing successfully organized in September 2009 with assistance from development partners and domestic financing (72 percent). - Law on the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics validated and promulgated January 2010. - National M&E framework, overseen within SESN (Office of the Prime Minister), to be implemented and launched in the second half of 2010 with World Bank financial assistance. - National Statistics Development Strategy (SNDS) / Statistics Master Plan (2009–2013): - Total estimated cost of implementing SNDS: roughly DF 4,115 million (US$23.1 million). - SNDS strategic objectives: legal/regulatory framework; increase human resources; improve quality/regularity of statistics; facilitate access to data and promote a culture of statistics. - DISED staffing gap example: currently three statistical works engineers and two statistics technical assistants; needs: eight economist statisticians and demographers, 20 statistical works engineers, and 40 statistics technical assistants. ### Key risks to INDS and mitigation measures - Endogenous risks: - Implementation of requisite structural reforms and accompanying measures. - Capacity of national stakeholders to implement projects and programs effectively. - Overall absorptive capacity of the Djibouti economy. - Persistence of social and cultural rigidities; mobilization of key stakeholders (trade unions, personnel). - Viability of taxation arrangements. - Mitigations: scheduling regular IMF and World Bank missions; initial use of international expertise and South‑South cooperation; intensive capacity-building and awareness-raising programs. - Exogenous risks: - Climatic/ecological risks, natural disasters; shocks linked to import prices (energy, foodstuffs). - Geopolitical instability in the region; complexity of development partners’ procedures; assumptions on Djibouti’s attractiveness. - External debt sustainability given major expenditures to accelerate growth and reduce poverty. - Critical assumption: “a very substantial flow of direct foreign investment, some US$800 million, between 2007 and 2012”; reduction would require lowering growth and poverty reduction targets. - Mitigations: emergency management plan (ORSEC); diversify energy sources (solar, wind, geothermal, interconnection with Ethiopia); advocacy for transformation of debt to grants; implement Paris Declaration and APRM principles. ### Sectoral priorities and policy measures (selected) - Education: - Targets: increase GER; net primary enrollment 66.2 percent (EDIM 2006); GIR first year reached 78 percent in 2007/2008. - Budget allocations: education budget share rose from 16 percent to 24.8 percent (1999–2004); Government devoted 25.6 percent (2006), 27.9 percent (2007), 29.3 percent (2008) of state budget to education. - Actions: expand capacity, curriculum reforms, teacher training, Institute for teacher training, reduce textbook costs, student loan schemes, improve rural access. - Health: - Baseline and targets (selected): - Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel: 2006 baseline 87; 2011 target 90; 2015 target 95. - Infant mortality rate: 2006 baseline 67; 2011 target 55; 2015 target 40. - Infant-juvenile mortality rate: 2006 baseline 94; 2011 target 80; 2015 target 75. - Maternal mortality rate: 2006 baseline 550; 2011 target 470; 2015 target 400. - Malnutrition (underweight) among under-5s: 2006 baseline 28.6; 2011 target 17; 2015 target 16. - Actions: reform institutional framework; improve coverage and access; introduce cost recovery; mobile teams; regional hospitals; strengthen EPI; essential drugs access. - Water and sanitation: - Coverage and cost notes: - EDIM-2006: 93.5 percent access to improved water sources; urban 95.5 percent; rural 52.5 percent. - ONEAD tariff DF 62/m3; water by tanker DF 500/m3. - Production meets only 75 percent of needs (almost 20 million m3 a year); production cost DF 136. - Actions: sea water desalination proposal (100,000 cubic meters per day phased plant), mobilize surface water, rehabilitate ONEAD networks, prioritize low‑income households. - Energy and ICT: - Energy: accessible to 50 percent of the population (mainly urban); renewable energy potential (geothermal, wind, solar); plans to interconnect with Ethiopian grid, geothermal at Assal, electrification of disadvantaged neighborhoods. - ICTs: aim to improve access, reduce costs, expand coverage (especially rural), improve Djibouti‑Telecom performance. - Housing, urban development, and migration zones: - Housing stock and needs: - Subsidized units built 2004–2008: Hodane1 842; Gargaar 285; Doumeira 44; 340 units for reintegration of displaced persons. - Hodane 2 642 units and Chebelley 200 units work began October 2008. - Annual needs estimated at 2,500 units nationally; 2,000 in the capital; only one third of needs met. - Cost: solid materials unit = six times average annual household income; light materials unit = 2.5 times average annual household income. - Actions: expand housing estates, master plans, cadastral mapping, improve sanitation and waste management, targeted infrastructure in Balbala and PK12. - Employment and microfinance: - Unemployment high: overall unemployment 59.5 percent (2002); extreme poor unemployment 72.4 percent. - Programs: labor-intensive public works (ADETIP nearly 30,155 person/days annually for 2004–2006), vocational training, SNA youth insertion, microfinance (FSD granted DF 282,819,000 in ~5,640 microcredits to ~3,020 women). - Post-2008: establishment of savings and credit unions (CPEC and CNEC) to expand microfinance; ADDS created to implement social and job-creation projects (PREPUD — ~US$30 million). - Food security: - Strategic goals: develop agriculture, stock-raising, fishing; increase incomes; expand water/health/nutrition access; improve emergency response; improve M&E and data (RGPH 2009; EDAM-3 after RGPH; update poverty map 2010). - Actions: water impoundment schemes; integrated pastoral programs; 100 fully equipped pirogues for fishermen; pilot projects (Prosopis feed, reforestation, poultry, methane from manure). ### Macroeconomic performance, projections, and fiscal framework (selected exact figures) - Recent performance: - Real GDP growth average 2004–2006: 3.7 percent. - Real GDP: 5.3 percent (2007); 5.8 percent (2008); 2009 acceleration about 5 percent. - Projections (selected table entries preserved exactly for 2007–2014): - Real GDP (annual % change): 5.1 5.8 5.0 4.5 5.4 6.3 6.7 7.0 - Consumer price (annual average): 5.0 12.0 2.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 3.0 - Total investments in fixed capital: 43.0 46.7 39.9 34.7 35.7 37.2 38.1 39.1 - Private: 31.0 32.9 26.2 21.8 23.5 25.6 26.9 28.5 - Public: 12.0 13.8 13.7 12.8 12.2 11.7 11.2 10.6 - Current account balance (% of GDP): -25.7 -39.2 -19.9 -13.2 -18.2 -18.8 -21.7 -23.2 - Direct foreign investment (% of GDP): 23.0 23.8 18.0 15.5 17.1 15.6 15.4 15.0 - External public debt stock secured by the Government: 63.6 60.2 63.2 59.9 57.2 60.4 67.3 66.8 - Gross official reserves (months of imports): 1.9 2.8 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 ... - Nominal GDP (DF millions): 150,693 174,617 186,969 204,219 223,884 246,361 270,759 298,515 - Coverage rate of the bank of issue (%): 116.3 120.9 137.4 142.0 145.0 145.0 147.0 147.9 - INDS macro and budget framework (selected figures 2007–2012): - Nominal GDP (DF millions): 151,033 (2007); 171,271 (2008); 192,509 (2009); 214,263 (2010); 238,046 (2011); 263,517 (2012) - Nominal GDP per capita (US dollars): 1,020 (2007); 1,124 (2008); 1,234 (2009); 1,346 (2010); 1,465 (2011); 1,585 (2012) - Real GDP (annual % change): 5.3% (2007); 5.9% (2008); 6.9% (2009); 7.3% (2010); 7.9% (2011); 7.7% (2012) - Consumer price (annual average): 5.0% (2007); 6.6% (2008); 5.5% (2009); 4.3% (2010); 3.5% (2011); 3.0% (2012) - Total investments in fixed capital (as % of GDP): 42.1% (2007); 43.8% (2008); 45.4% (2009); 39.5% (2010); 38.1% (2011); 34.0% (2012) - Public investment ratio (% of GDP): 7.5 (2006); 12.4 (2007); 12.4 (2008); 10.1 (2009); 8 (2010); 6 (2011) ### Implementation instruments, coordination, and governance - Implementation instruments: - Sectoral and multi-sectoral programs, Sectoral Medium-Term Expenditure Frameworks (MTEFs), Sectoral Operations Plans (POSs), Regional Operations Plans (PORs). - Coordination and harmonization: - INDS-MDG Technical Steering Committee; Technical Coordination Unit; three commissions (Economic and Social Development, Human Capital, Governance) to lead coordination and resource mobilization. - Legal framework established by Decree 2007-0106/PRE; CI-INDS, CCI, CCED, SESN, CT-INDS, Thematic Technical Groups (GTTs). - Guiding principles: proximity, farming out, transparency, participation, fairness, promptness, subsidiarity, complementarity and synergy, program approach, national execution, results-oriented management, harmonization and coordination. ### Government Action Plan (selected ministry commitments and short/medium/long term actions) - Ministry of Economy and Finance: contain wage bill; diversify economy; form national committee to reexamine economic policy; intensify price controls; strengthen national statistics dissemination. - Ministry of Investment Promotion: encourage joint ventures; revise Investment Code (raise Scheme A threshold); restructure ANPI; increase financing for private operators. - Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources: continue quest for renewable energy (geothermal, wind); expand rural electrification; implement energy management in government entities; institute social fare reductions. - Ministry of Health: free care for students and retired persons; transform health centers into polyclinics; build regional hospitals. - Ministry of Education: expand access and quality; create Higher Institute of Education; introduce student loan for portable computers. - Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock Production, and Marine Affairs: comprehensive rural water supply program; fisheries and livestock support; hydrogeological studies; vegetable gardens near schools. - Secretariat of State for National Solidarity (SESN): expand social projects; establish ADDS field units; expand electrification and microcredit; promote savings culture. - Ministries across sectors committed to concrete short- and medium-term measures for housing, youth, employment (ANEFIP strengthening, CFPA refurbishment), justice reform (international arbitration center), decentralization, and coordination with development partners. *Source: _cr12131 (IMF country report excerpts provided).* ### Executive Summary of the INDS ### Executive Summary of the INDS ### Introduction and macroeconomic context - Republic of Djibouti gained independence on June 27, 1977; surface area 23,000 km2; 370 kilometers of maritime coastlines. - Population estimated at 800,000 inhabitants. - Climate: desert variety; rainfall nearly everywhere is below 200 mm per year; average temperature exceeds 40°C between May and September. - Economy structure: - Services account for over 80 percent of GDP and employ something in the vicinity of 60 percent of the active population. - Primary sector approximately 3 percent of GDP. - Manufacturing around 16.3 percent of GDP. - Per capita GDP of the order of US$800 in PPP terms. - UN Human Development Report ranking: 154th out of 177 countries in 2007. - Modern economy driven by rents from the international port, military revenues, and foreign aid; informal economy remains a major livelihood source. - Recent growth drivers: increase in FDI, opening of the Port of Doraleh, development of livestock re-exports center, extension of the free trade zone. - 2009: GDP growth estimated at approximately 5 percent; inflation in 2009 down from 2008 due to contraction in international food and commodity prices. ### Review of the PRSP (2004) and status of poverty - Historical declines: per capita income fell by over 25 percent relative to 1984 levels; government budget deficit reached 10.1 percent of GDP in 1995. - Social indicators prior to PRSP adoption worsened (gross enrollment, infant and maternal mortality, access to drinking water). - PRSP (May 2004) main objectives included: (i) supporting economic growth; (ii) developing human resources; (iii) strengthening social safety nets; and (iv) modernizing government and promoting good governance. - Poverty incidence trends (1996 to 2002): - Extreme monetary poverty: from 34.5 percent in 1996 to 42.2 percent in 2002. - Relative poverty: from 64.9 percent in 1996 to 74.4 percent in 2002. - 2002 social indicators cited: - Gross enrollment ratio in primary education: 42.7 percent. - Literacy rate (aged 15 or older): 18.3 percent. - Infant mortality rate: 94.6‰. - Infant-juvenile mortality rate: 106.2‰. - PRSP medium-term (horizon 2006) targets included: - Raise rate of average growth in GDP to 4.6 percent over the period 2004-2006. - Bring down incidence of extreme poverty to 36.1 percent. - Raise gross enrollment ratio to 73 percent. - Raise the infant mortality rate to 90 permil and the infant-juvenile mortality rate to 110 per mil. - Outcomes after three years (2004-2006): - Economic growth averaged 3.7 percent over the period 2004-2006. - 2006 EDIM findings: - Net enrollment ratio in primary education: 66.2 percent. - Rate of parity between the sexes: 0.98. - Literacy of women aged 15-24: 47.5 percent. - Infant mortality rate: 67 permil. - Infant-juvenile mortality rate: 94 permil. - Persistent poverty and inequality: - Large segments continue to live in difficult conditions in slums and rural areas. - City of Djibouti accounts for the largest number of poor people: contributions of 65.2 percent (relative poverty) and 57.4 percent (extreme poverty). ### MDG status and social spending - During PRSP period (2004-2006) macroeconomic priority constrained social investment. - Approximately 50 percent of the national budget allocated to social sectors. - Progress and outlook: - Mixed results on MDGs-1, 7, and 8. - Djibouti on course for reaching MDGs-2, 4, 5, and 6 by 2015. - MDG-3 (gender) has shown significant progress since 1999 but requires closer attention in future cycles. ### INDS strategic framework (2008-2012) - INDS defined as second-generation PRSP, officially launched January 9, 2007; covers period 2008-2012 and to be updated on a rolling basis. - INDS vision (President of the Republic, January 2007): turn Djibouti by 2015 into a country that is peaceful, modern, fair, open, economically efficient, better managed, and where social disunity, poverty, marginalization, and exclusion are fought and ultimately overcome. - INDS objective: sustain integrated policies and reforms to achieve strong and equitable economic growth and sustainable reductions in unemployment and poverty. ### INDS strategy: four pillars - Pillar 1 — Strengthen competitiveness and create conditions for strong and sustainable economic growth through: - Stabilization of the macroeconomic framework and structural reforms. - Establish legal and institutional framework conducive to investment and elimination of obstacles to private sector development. - Promote Djibouti market as an economic and financial regional platform and harness growth potential. - Develop infrastructure and reduce production factor costs. - Pillar 2 — Optimal use of human resources, urban and rural development, and environmental preservation: - Focus on quality in health and education. - Policies for employment and vocational training. - Promote food security and improve access to water. - Institute National Strategy for Integrating Women into Development (four priority areas: decision-making, health, education, economics) and mainstream gender perspective across sectoral strategies. - Pillar 3 — Reduce poverty and assist vulnerable groups: - Combat unemployment via labor-intensive approaches, promote microfinance, establish social safety nets for street children, nomads, displaced persons. - Improve access by poor people to water and basic services; target outskirts of Djibouti-Ville (districts 4 and 5), regional towns, and rural areas. - Pillar 4 — Promote political, local, economic and financial governance: - Enhance planning and management capacities, modernize tools and resources. - Priority to strengthen government expenditure management to improve fairness and efficiency as a tool for combating poverty. ### Overall cost of the INDS (2008-2012) and distribution - Valuation as at January 31, 2010: - Overall cost of the Prior Actions Matrix in the INDS over 2008-2012 amounts to about DF 294.7 billion, i.e., US$1.65 billion, or euros 1,17 billion. - Almost 41 percent (i.e., about US$684.147 million) allocated for measures in support of the MDGs. - Almost 59 percent of the investments represent efforts over and above the MDGs. - General summary of the financial requirements of the INDS (2008-2012) (in thousands of DF): - GRAND TOTAL FOR THE INDS (thousands of DF) 294 630 638 100.00% - PILLAR 1: GROWTH, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, COMPETITIVENESS 102 825 783 34.90% - PILLAR 2: PROMOTING ACCESS TO BASIC SOCIAL SERVICES 151 536 799 51.43% - PILLAR 3: COMBATTING EXTREME POVERTY AND MARGINALIZATION 26 254 947 8.91% - PILLAR 4: GOVERNANCE 14 013 110 4.76% ### Financing the INDS - Total cost reiterated as DF 294.6 billion over 2008-2012. - Domestic financing: - Domestically funded investments (excluding current expenditure) envisaged in the government budget correspond to about DF 35 billion over five years, i.e., US$198 million. - DF 35 billion represents approximately 12 percent of the overall costs of the INDS. - External financing: - External financing resources in place estimated at 44 percent of the overall cost — i.e., DF 128.5 billion, equivalent to approximately US$723 million. - Outstanding financing gap: - Outstanding balance required to finance the INDS estimated at DF 130.9 billion, equivalent to about US$736 million. - Sectoral priorities: - Energy accounts for 16 percent of INDS overall requirements. - Water and sanitation account for 14 percent of INDS overall requirements. - Public debt context: - Djibouti’s stock of external public debt (outstanding amount payable) estimated at over DF 100.9 billion in 2008, which corresponds to 58 percent of GDP. - Debt stock trending upward due to ongoing public investment program. - Djibouti has not benefited from debt relief. - To meet public deficit objectives and ensure macroeconomic stability, outstanding financing resources awaiting mobilization should be made available in the form of grants. ### Implementing the INDS strategy - Implementation principles: local focus, transparency, participation, responsiveness, adherence to program approach, nationwide implementation, performance-oriented management, quest for synergies, harmonization and coordination. - Implementation predicated on five complementary strategies: - (i) Optimal coordination via comprehensive framework for work organization and information circulation among stakeholders. - (ii) Enhanced environment for producing quality statistical information (quantitative and qualitative). - (iii) Timely production of summary documents, analytical reports, and broad outreach on the national strategy and implemented policies/programs. - (iv) Strengthening participatory processes initiated during INDS formulation to track implementation and identify new strategic guidelines. - (v) Ongoing dialogue between government and development partners. - Institutional arrangements: - Three implementation commissions to be set up: “Economic and Social Development” Commission; “Human Capital” Commission; “Governance” Commission — co-chaired by technical partners and national agencies under general supervision of the State Secretariat for the National Solidarity and the Ministry of Economy, Finance, Planning, and Privatization. - Economic Commission for Africa (CEA) agreed to provide strategic technical assistance under a memorandum of cooperation. - Technical Steering Committee for the INDS to liaise among stakeholders and commissions. - Technical Unit for Harmonization, Coordination, and Support for Implementation established to strengthen capacities of units engaged in project and program implementation; directly linked to the State Secretariat for National Solidarity. - A detailed plan for coordination, harmonization, and support for implementation prepared to serve as benchmark for stakeholders. *Executive Summary of the INDS.* ### 9. Monitoring and Evaluation of the INDS ### 9. Monitoring and Evaluation of the INDS ### Monitoring and evaluation: major handicaps identified (2004–2006 PRSP) - Unfamiliarity or lack of experience with performance-oriented management principles, and in particular, monitoring and evaluation. - Scarcity and unreliability of basic or current statistical data. - Constraints affecting the Directorate of Statistics and Demographic Research (DISED). - Lack of a General Census of Population and Housing. - Minimal coordination and limited human resource capacity for implementation of the national framework for monitoring and evaluation. - Constraints on resource absorption. ### Government conclusions and measures adopted for INDS (2008–2012) - The new strategy (2008–2012) is predicated on these measures: - (i) Presidential Decree (N° 2007-0106/PRE) of February 6, 2007 organizing the institutional framework for the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of the INDS. - (ii) Creation of a State Secretariat for National Solidarity (SESN) (Presidential Decree N° 2008-0093/PRE of April 3, 2008), entrusted with the preparation, coordination, and in particular the monitoring and evaluation of government policy in the area of social development and poverty reduction. The SESN is the driving force behind establishment of the framework, in collaboration with the Ministry of Economy and Finance, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International cooperation. - (iii) Successful organization—with assistance from development partners and a sizable proportion of domestic financing (72 percent)—of the first General Survey of Population and Housing in Djibouti in September 2009. - (iv) Validation and promulgation by the government, in January 2010, of the Law on the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics, which institutionalizes structural and institutional reforms to equip the national statistical system (in particular DISED) with the tools and resources required for full functionality and maximum effectiveness. - (vi) With financial assistance from the World Bank, the national framework for monitoring and evaluation—overseen within the SESN (Office of the Prime Minister)—will be implemented and launched in the second half of 2010. ### Key risks to the INDS - The INDS is proactive and ambitious and faces endogenous and exogenous risks. - Endogenous risks: - (i) the requisite structural reforms and accompanying measures; - (ii) the extent to which national stakeholders can effectively and professionally implement the projects and programs associated with the INDS; - (iii) overall absorption capacity of the Djibouti economy; - (iv) persistence of social and cultural rigidities and habits; - (v) difficulties involved in mobilizing key stakeholders, such as trade unions and personnel in general, and enlisting their support for the established objectives, particularly in rural areas; - (vi) viability of the taxation arrangements. - Exogenous risks: - (i) climatic and ecological risks, natural disasters, and shocks linked to the prices of imports, particularly energy and foodstuffs; - (ii) the geopolitical instability in the region, the complexity of the procedures used by Djibouti’s development partners, and the underlying assumptions concerning Djibouti’s attractiveness; - (iii) sustainability of external debt, in light of major expenditures required to accelerate growth, reduce poverty, and improve living standards. - Precautionary measures to address these risks have been identified and set forth in the strategy document, and some have already been implemented. ### Key financial figures (Annex: Overview of financial needs associated with the INDS, in thousands of DF) - GRAND TOTAL FOR THE INDS: 294 630 638 total needs; Financing in place: 35 262 305; Donors and Lenders: 128 496 334; Total in place: 163 758 640; Funds to be mobilized: 130 871 998; % in place: 43.6%; % in place GOV: 12.0%; % to be identified: 44.4%. - PILLAR 1: GROWTH, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, COMPETITIVENESS: 102 825 783 total needs; Financing in place: 13 204 153; Donors and Lenders: 62 261 690; Total in place: 75 465 843; Funds to be mobilized: 27 359 939; % in place: 60.6%; % in place GOV: 12.8%; % to be identified: 26.6%. - PILLAR 2: PROMOTING ACCESS TO BASIC SOCIAL SERVICES: 151 536 799 total needs; Financing in place: 13 357 270; Donors and Lenders: 56 071 099; Total in place: 69 428 370; Funds to be mobilized: 82 108 429; % in place: 37.0%; % in place GOV: 8.8%; % to be identified: 54.2%. - PILLAR 3: EFFORTS TO COMBAT EXTREME POVERTY AND MARGINALIZATION: 26 254 947 total needs; Financing in place: 5 000 000; Donors and Lenders: 7 642 931; Total in place: 12 642 931; Funds to be mobilized: 13 612 016; % in place: 29.1%; % in place GOV: 19.0%; % to be identified: 51.8%. - PILLAR 4: GOVERNANCE: 14 013 110 total needs; Financing in place: 3 700 882; Donors and Lenders: 2 520 614; Total in place: 6 221 496; Funds to be mobilized: 7 791 613; % in place: 18.0%; % in place GOV: 26.4%; % to be identified: 55.6%. ### Selected sub-sector and program funding details (in thousands of DF) - STRATEGIC PILLAR-1: Energy and natural resources: 47 445 160 total needs; Financing in place: 8 018 351; Donors and Lenders: 26 122 060; Total in place: 34 140 412; Funds to be mobilized: 13 304 749; % in place: 55.1%; % in place GOV: 16.90%; % to be identified: 28.0%. - STRATEGIC PILLAR-2 (Development of Human Capital): 57 704 852 total needs; Financing in place: 6 280 446; Donors and Lenders: 27 332 958; Total in place: 33 613 404; Funds to be mobilized: 24 091 448; % in place: 47.4%; % in place GOV: 10.9%; % to be identified: 41.7%. - Health: 28 241 518 total needs; Financing in place: 2 887 297; Donors and Lenders: 13 172 136; Total in place: 16 059 433; Funds to be mobilized: 12 182 085; % in place: 46.6%; % in place GOV: 10.2%; % to be identified: 43.1%. - Education, Literacy: 17 928 145 total needs; Financing in place: 2 610 361; Donors and Lenders: 12 878 186; Total in place: 15 488 547; Funds to be mobilized: 2 439 598; % in place: 71.8%; % in place GOV: 14.6%; % to be identified: 13.6%. - STRATEGIC PILLAR-3: Poverty reduction, social marginalization in urban areas: 12 004 860 total needs; Financing in place: 1 250 000; Donors and Lenders: 5 418 082; Total in place: 6 668 082; Funds to be mobilized: 5 336 778; % in place: 45.1%; % in place GOV: 10.4%; % to be identified: 44.5%. - STRATEGIC PILLAR-4: National statistics system: 4 115 104 total needs; Financing in place: 300 000; Donors and Lenders: 348 000; Total in place: 648 000; Funds to be mobilized: 3 467 104; % in place: 8.5%; % in place GOV: 7.3%; % to be identified: 84.3%. - Framework for the National System for Monitoring and Evaluation of the INDS: 663 812 total needs; Financing in place: 100 000; Donors and Lenders: 157 514; Total in place: 257 514; Funds to be mobilized: 406 298; % in place: 23.7%; % in place GOV: 15.1%; % to be identified: 61.2%. *Source: _cr12131 - 9. Monitoring and Evaluation of the INDS* ### ANNEX 3: MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOAL (MDG) INDICATORS................................................ 101 ### ANNEX 3: MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOAL (MDG) INDICATORS ### Executive Summary - Independence: June 27, 1977. - Surface area: 23,000 km². Maritime coast: 370 km. - Climate: desert; rainfall less than 200mm per year virtually everywhere. Temperatures average above 40°C between May and September. - Population: 800,000. - Economic structure: services sector accounts for more than 80 percent of GDP and is estimated to employ close to 60 percent of the working population; primary sector approximately 3 percent of GDP; manufacturing approximately 16.3 percent of GDP. - Per capita GDP: US$800 in PPP terms. - UN Human Development Report (2007) ranking: number 154 of 177 countries. - Classification: LDC. Dual economy with modern rent-based economy and large informal economy. - Growth drivers since 2006: increase in FDI, activity at the Port of Djibouti, opening of the Port of Doraleh, development of livestock re-export facility, expansion of the Free Zone. - 2009 estimates: GDP growth approximately 5 percent. Noted marked decline in inflation in 2009 versus 2008. ### 1. PRSP and Poverty Situation Assessment - Historical deterioration: per capita income declined by more than 25 percent relative to 1984; State budget deficit climbed to 10.1 percent of GDP in 1995. - Social indicators (2002): gross enrollment ratio (GER) for primary schools 42.7 percent; literacy rate (age 15+) 18.3 percent; infant mortality rate (IMR) 94.6 per thousand; infant-juvenile mortality rate (IJMR) 106.2 per thousand. - PRSP objectives (medium-term 2006): (i) increase average GDP growth over 2004–2006 to 4.6 percent; (ii) reduce incidence of extreme poverty to 36.1 percent; (iii) increase GER to 73 percent; (iv) reduce IMR to 90 per thousand and IJMR to 110 per thousand. - PRSP results (2004–2006): economic growth averaged 3.7 percent (below goal of 4.6 percent but higher than demographic growth approximately 3 percent). - EDIM provisional data (2006): net primary school enrollment 66.2 percent with gender parity index 0.98; literacy rate among women age 15 to 24 is 47.5 percent; IMR 67 per thousand; IJMR 94 per thousand. - Poverty characteristics: structural and extensive; concentrated in Djibouti City which accounts for 65.2 percent of relative poverty and 57.4 percent of extreme poverty (2006 EDIM). ### 2. Status of the MDGs - Fiscal context: during PRSP period (2004-2006) priority on macroeconomic stability limited social investment, but approximately 50 percent of the national budget was allocated to the social sectors. - MDG progress: Djibouti is on track to meet the 2015 MDG deadline for MDGs 2, 4, 5, and 6. Progress on MDGs 1, 7, and 8 remains muted. Greater attention recommended for MDG-3 (gender equality / empowering women). ### 3. The Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper: the INDS - INDS launch: January 9, 2007; covers 2008-2012 and will be periodically updated on a rolling basis. - INDS vision (presidential quote): “The INDS is a social project that seeks, by 2015, to transform Djibouti into a peaceful, modern, equitable, open, economically competitive, and well-managed country where social division, poverty, marginalization, and exclusion are reduced and, over time, eliminated.” - Poverty index note: synthetic index of human poverty estimated at 42.5 percent, close to the extreme poverty rate of 45 percent; perfect correlation between these two rates across regions and districts. ### 4. The INDS Strategy (four pillars) - Pillar 1 — Growth, macroeconomic stability, competitiveness: - (i) continue policies to stabilize macroeconomic framework and achieve structural reforms; - (ii) institute investment-friendly legal and institutional framework and eliminate obstacles to private sector development; - (iii) promote Djibouti as a regionally competitive economic and financial hub; - (iv) develop infrastructure and reduce production factor cost. - Pillar 2 — Investment in human resources, urban/rural development, environmental protection: - (i) focus on quality in health and education; - (ii) implement employment promotion and professional training; - (iii) promote food security and improve access to water; - (iv) implement National Strategy for integration of women into development with priority areas decision-making, health, education, and savings and ensure gender dimension in sectoral strategies. - Pillar 3 — Poverty reduction and assistance to vulnerable groups: - reduce unemployment via highly labor intensive practices; promote microfinance; establish social safety nets for street children, nomadic groups, displaced persons; improve access for the poor to water and basic social services; focus on outlying neighborhoods of Djibouti City (districts 4 and 5), inland cities, and rural areas. - Pillar 4 — Good governance and capacity-building: - promote political, local, economic, and financial good governance; strengthen planning and public administration management; modernize tools and resources; prioritize strengthening public expenditure management to transform it into a poverty reduction tool. ### 5. Overall Cost of the INDS Strategy – 2008-2012 - Overall cost as of January 31, 2010: DF 293.7 billion (US$1.65 billion or EUR 1.17 billion). - MDG allocation: close to 41 percent (approximately US$684,147 million) earmarked for MDG activities; approximately 59 percent of investments channeled toward additional MDG activities. - Summary financial needs (in DF thousands): - INDS GRAND TOTAL (GROSS) (in DF thousands) 294,630,638 100.00% - PILLAR 1: GROWTH, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY AND COMPETITIVENESS 102,825,783 34.90% - PILLAR 2: PROMOTING ACCESS TO BASIC SOCIAL SERVICES 151,536,799 51.43% - PILLAR 3: REDUCING EXTREME POVERTY AND EXCLUSION 26,254,947 8.91% - PILLAR 4: GOVERNANCE 14,013,110 4.76% ### 6. Financing the Strategy - Total INDS cost for 2008-2012: DF 294.7 billion. - Government own resources (investment only, excluding operating expenses): approximately DF 35 billion (US$198 million) over five years — approximately 12 percent of total INDS costs. - External financing secured: estimated at 44 percent of overall cost (DF 128.5 billion or approximately US$723 million). - Outstanding financing to be mobilized: DF 130.9 billion (approximately US$736 million). - Sector priorities by share of INDS needs: energy 16 percent; water and sanitation 14 percent. - External public debt stock (remaining balance) 2008: more than DF 100.9 billion — more than 58 percent of GDP; public debt warning alarm threshold is 60 percent of GDP. - Policy implication: to maintain public deficit goals and ensure macroeconomic stability, remaining financing should take the form of grants. ### 7. Implementation Strategy - Implementation principles: community-based approach, transparency, participation, speed, priority to program approach, national execution, results-based management, search for synergies, harmonization, coordination. - Five complementary implementation pillars: - (i) sound coordination via a comprehensive framework for organization of work and information circulation; - (ii) improve conditions for generating reliable statistical information (qualitative and quantitative) to enhance policy and program quality for poverty reduction; - (iii) periodic production of summary documents and analytical reports and enhanced communication on strategy and programs; - (iv) strengthen participatory processes for monitoring and redefining political and strategic orientations; - (v) ongoing dialogue between Government and development partners. - Institutional arrangements: - Three implementation commissions: Economic and Social Commission, Human Capital Commission, Governance Commission — jointly chaired by technical partners and national entities under general oversight of the Secretariat of State for National Solidarity and the Ministry of the Economy, Finance, Planning, and Privatization. - Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) to provide strategic technical support through a memorandum of collaboration. - INDS Technical Steering Committee to serve as liaison between implementation actors and commissions. - Technical Unit for Implementation Harmonization, Coordination, and Support established under the Secretariat of State for National Solidarity to assist capacity-building of project and program executing units. - A detailed outline of implementation coordination, harmonization, and support prepared as ongoing frame of reference. *Source: ANNEX 3: MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOAL (MDG) INDICATORS (excerpt content).* ### 8. Monitoring and Evaluation of the INDS ### 8. Monitoring and Evaluation of the INDS ### Monitoring and Evaluation: obstacles and institutional reforms - Obstacles faced during PRSP Monitoring and Evaluation for 2004-2006: - lack of familiarity with or application of results-based management principles, in particular monitoring and evaluation principles - paucity and unreliability of basic or current statistical data - lack of recognition of the Directorate of Statistics and Demographic Studies (DISED) - failure to carry out a General Population and Housing Survey - lack of coordination and low human resource capacity for implementation and the monitoring and evaluation of the INDS - lack of absorptive capacity of mobilized resources - Government measures taken to address PRSP weaknesses and ensure INDS success: - Presidential Decree No. 2007-0106/PRE of February 6, 2007, organizing the institutional process for formulating the implementation of INDS monitoring and evaluation - creation of a Secretariat of State for National Solidarity (SESN) (Presidential Decree No. 2008-0093/PRE of April 3, 2008) responsible for formulation, coordination, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of the Government’s social development and poverty reduction policy; SESN collaborates with the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation - successful organization, with development partners and domestic financing (72 percent), of the General Population and Housing Survey in Djibouti in September 2009 - validation and promulgation by the Government in January 2010 of the National Statistics Development Strategy law to provide the national statistical system, in particular DISED, with tools and resources for optimal operation - establishment, during the second half of 2010, of the national monitoring and evaluation system, spearheaded by the SESN (Office of the Prime Minister), with World Bank financial assistance ### Risks and prevention measures - Character of the INDS: - described as a very proactive and ambitious poverty reduction strategy, subject to endogenous and exogenous risks - Endogenous risks: - implementation of the structural reforms necessary and support measures - capacity of national actors to implement INDS-related projects and programs effectively and professionally - overall absorptive capacity of the Djibouti economy - entrenched attitudes and socio-cultural practices - problems mobilizing actors such as trade unions and staff in general, particularly in rural areas - viability of taxation - Exogenous risks: - climate and ecological events as well as natural disasters; shocks stemming from imported product prices, in particular energy and foodstuff - geopolitical instability of the region, the complexity of development partners’ procedures, and the basic assumptions regarding Djibouti’s appeal - external debt sustainability, taking into account the significant expenditures needed to accelerate growth, reduce poverty, and improve living conditions - Prevention measures: - a number of prevention measures were identified and outlined in the strategic document; a number of these measures are already being implemented ### Partnership for the INDS - Success depends on full involvement of all development players: - Administration, elected officials, civil society, private sector, public, donors - Effective mobilization of their energies required within a new partnership to stimulate economic and social development efforts - Noted requirement: a considerable increase in official development assistance (ODA) from donors will be necessary ### Background and macro-social context (key facts and statistics) - Geography and climate: - surface area: 23,000 km² - maritime coast: 370 km - rainfall: less than 200mm per year virtually everywhere in the country - temperatures between May and September average above 40°C - Population and economy: - population stands at 800,000 - services sector: more than 80 percent of GDP; estimated to employ close to 60 percent of the working population - primary sector: approximately 3 percent of GDP - manufacturing sector: approximately 16.3 percent of GDP - per capita GDP estimated at US$800 in PPP terms - United Nations Human Development Report (2007) ranking: 154 of 177 countries - classified as an LDC - informal economy: major portion of economic activity; informal enterprises interact with formal sector as clients and providers - Growth and investment: - since 2006, GDP growth rate has surpassed demographic growth rate - growth led by increase in foreign direct investment (FDI), notably Port of Djibouti activity, Port of Doraleh opening, livestock re-export facility, expansion of the Free Zone - 2009: GDP growth estimated at approximately 5 percent - 2009: foreign direct investment remains sizeable; port activity strong supported by high growth rates in Ethiopia and transshipment activity - 2009: marked decline in inflation compared to 2008 following significant decline in international food and commodity prices ### PRSP implementation, targets, and outcomes (selected figures) - PRSP medium-term goals (by 2006): - increase average GDP growth over 2004–2006 to 4.6 percent - reduce incidence of extreme poverty to 36.1 per cent - increase GER to 73 percent - reduce IMR to 90 per thousand and IJMR to 110 per thousand - Outcomes after three years (2004–2006): - economic growth averaged 3.7 percent (below PRSP goal of 4.6 percent; higher than demographic growth of about 3 percent) - EDIM (2006) provisional data: - net school enrollment in the primary cycle: 66.2 percent; gender parity index: 0.98 - literacy rate among women aged 15–24: 47.5 percent - IMR: 67 per thousand - IJMR: 94 per thousand - Poverty trends and distribution: - extreme income poverty incidence rose from 34.5 percent in 1996 to 42.2 percent in 2002 (earlier section also reports other measures; see Poverty section) - PRSP context: incidence of extreme income poverty 34.5 percent in 1996; 42.2 percent in 2002; incidence of relative poverty 64.9 percent in 1996 rising to 74.4 percent in 2002 - observed that substantial FDI inflows and enhanced transit hub role have been of little benefit to the poorest populations ### Poverty assessment: household and labor market characteristics (selected figures) - Changes 1996 to 2002: - incidence of relative poverty increased from 45.1 percent to 74.0 percent - incidence of extreme poverty increased from 9.6 percent to 42.1 percent - Geographic concentration (EDAM-IS2, 2002): - Djibouti city contributes 65.2 percent of relative poverty and 57.4 percent of extreme poverty - Arrondissements 4 and 5 (represent 41.8 percent of total population) contribute 51.1 percent of overall extreme poverty and 47.1 percent of relative poverty of individuals - Arrondissements 4 and 5 contribute 41.6 percent of overall household poverty and 45.7 percent of extreme household poverty - Table 3 (selected entries preserved as presented): - Arrondissement 1 — Extreme poverty: 11.7; Relative poverty: 43.4; Adult illiteracy rate (2002): 33.4; % of individuals without access to safe water: 0.0; Probability of death before age 40: 23.0 - Arrondissement 2 — Extreme poverty: 23.1; Relative poverty: 63.3; Adult illiteracy rate (2002): 44.6; % without access to safe water: 0.0; Probability of death before age 40: 49.1 - Arrondissement 3 — Extreme poverty: 27.6; Relative poverty: 60.9; Adult illiteracy rate (2002): 41.5; % without access to safe water: 4.0; Probability of death before age 40: 35.6 - Arrondissement 4 — Extreme poverty: 56.3; Relative poverty: 86.1; Adult illiteracy rate (2002): 61.3; % without access to safe water: 2.4; Probability of death before age 40: 43.4 - Arrondissement 5 — Extreme poverty: 45.1; Relative poverty: 78.8; Adult illiteracy rate (2002): 55.9; % without access to safe water: 0.7; Probability of death before age 40: 43.6 - Ali Sabieh — Extreme poverty: 71.8; Relative poverty: 92.4; Adult illiteracy rate (2002): 57.7; % without access to safe water: 5.5; Probability of death before age 40: 64.3 - Dikhil — Extreme poverty: 76.8; Relative poverty: 94.1; Adult illiteracy rate (2002): 64.0; % without access to safe water: 21.0; Probability of death before age 40: 34.9 - Obock — Extreme poverty: 63.1; Relative poverty: 88.1; Adult illiteracy rate (2002): 58.2; % without access to safe water: 27.5; Probability of death before age 40: 36.2 - Tadjourah — Extreme poverty: 62.4; Relative poverty: 88.9; Adult illiteracy rate (2002): 55.2; % without access to safe water: 46.6; Probability of death before age 40: 42.7 - Total — Extreme poverty: 42.1; Relative poverty: 74.051.04.642.3 (as presented) - Source: EDAM-IS2 (2002) - Household and labor characteristics (selected exact figures): - household size (total): 6.3 persons - extreme poor household size: 7.1; poor: 6.9; non-poor: 5.1 - number of children per household: extreme poor 4.2; poor 3.9; non-poor 2.5; total 3.5 - population aged 0-19 (%): extreme poor 53.9; poor 51.0; non-poor 41.5; total 48.5 - overall dependency rate (%): extreme poor 4.9; poor 4.0; non-poor 1.9; total 3.2 - unemployment rate (%): extreme poor 72.4; poor 66.5; non-poor 41.3; total 59.5 - labor force share (%): extreme poor 53.9; poor 53.1; non-poor 52.7; total 53.0 - number of households: extreme poor 15,425; poor 28,017; non-poor 13,237; total 41,254 - Employment and education links: - unemployment rate increased from 44.1 percent in 1996 to 59.5 percent (2002) - of the unemployed, 50.4 percent state they are seeking a first job - unemployment particularly high among those in extreme poverty (72.4 percent) and among the poor (66.5 percent) - young persons under age 30 account for 76.1 percent unemployment and represent 60.5 percent of all the unemployed - individuals with no education account for 51.6 percent of the labor force and have an unemployment rate of 62.9 percent - individuals with primary education only (CE2 to CM2), representing 26.7 percent of the labor force, have an unemployment rate of 67.6 percent - those with secondary school or greater (19.5 percent of the labor force) have an unemployment rate of 45.9 percent - unemployment rates by household head status: unmarried-headed households 76.6 percent; married-headed households 39.9 percent; households headed by a woman 68.6 percent - Occupational distribution and poverty: - households where head is unemployed and seeking a first job, unemployed but previously employed, an independent worker, or an inactive individual account for nearly 65 percent of overall extreme poverty - households where head is a public sector wage earner: incidence of relative poverty 55 percent; incidence of extreme poverty 24 percent; this category accounts for 15 percent of overall extreme poverty and 19 percent of relative poverty - employers category small: 1.3 percent of heads of household in 2002, indicating weakness of private initiative and low development of the informal sector _Italic: Source document content: _cr12131 - 8. Monitoring and Evaluation of the INDS_._ ### 8. While these unemployment figures mask the phenomenon of underemployment, they do ### _cr12131 - 8. While these unemployment figures mask the phenomenon of underemployment, they do ### Unemployment and labor market structure - Unemployment is described as "by far, Djibouti’s most serious economic problem." - Factors explaining unemployment: - (i) insufficient economic activity; - (ii) the high cost of labor; - (iii) the weakness of human capital, limiting possibilities to take advantage of opportunities; and - (iv) the permanence of a sizable immigration flow and effects of some stabilization measures contributing to disequilibrium in the labor market. - The unemployment figures "mask the phenomenon of underemployment" but reveal the structural nature of the problem. ### Dependency and poverty incidence - Overall dependency: the income of an employed member of the work force or of a retired person provides support for 3.2 inactive individuals of age 15 or more. - Dependency by poverty status: - Income of an extremely poor person supports 4.9 individuals. - Income of a poor person supports 4.0 individuals. ### Poverty of living conditions and multidimensional deprivation - Income poverty and human poverty are "highly correlated." - Individuals below the extreme poverty line have high probabilities of deficits in: - food intake; - access to education; - access to healthcare; and - access to safe drinking water. ### Education and literacy - Net primary enrollment ratio (children 6-12): - Increased from 43.2 percent to 66.2 percent between 2002 and 2006. - Urban vs rural (2002 → 2006): urban improved from 52.9 percent to 56 percent; rural improved from 12.4 percent to 41.3 percent. - Net secondary enrollment ratio (ages 13-19): - Increased from 23.5 percent to 41.0 percent. - Urban ratio: 38.9 percent. - Rural ratio: 18.1 percent. - EDAM-IS2 findings: - Gross enrollment ratios in middle and secondary education in Arrondissements 3, 4, and 5 were 44 percent, 30 percent, and 42 percent, respectively—lower than Arrondissement 1. - Arrondissements 4 and 5 include the poorest neighborhoods in the capital. - Average enrollment ratios in primary and secondary school among the extreme poor are, on average, more than 25 points lower than ratios for the non-poor. - Literacy: - Share of adult population aged 15 or above that knows how to read and write: 27.3 percent, of which 22.2 percent were women (EDAM-IS2 and EDSF/PAPFAM). - EDIM 2006 (adult females aged 15–24): 47.5 percent know how to read and write. - Literacy disparities (EDIM 2006): rural 14.2 percent vs urban 48.4 percent for women aged 15–24. ### Health outcomes and services - General assessment: "the state of health of the Djibouti population is still mediocre" (EDIM 2006), but clear improvement in most health indicators between 2002 and 2006. - Maternal and child health: - Infant mortality rate: declined from 103.1 per thousand in 2002 to 67 per thousand in 2006. - Infant-child mortality rate: declined from 128.9 per thousand in 2002 to 94 per thousand in 2006. - Percentage of children having received all recommended vaccinations (BCG, DPT, Polio, Measles): 32.9 percent in 2002 and 38.6 percent in 2006. - Improvements attributed more to urban than rural areas. - HIV/AIDS: - Rate of AIDS prevalence stabilized at its 2002 level of 2.9 percent. ### Access to safe drinking water - Improvements from 2002 to 2006: - Rural population without access to safe drinking water: 15.9 percent in 2002 → 4.4 percent in 2006. - Persons without access to water in Djibouti City: 7.4 percent in 2002 → 2.1 percent in 2006. - Rural population without access to water: 49.1 percent in 2002 → 47.5 percent in 2006. - 21.6 percent of water consumed in rural areas came from "unimproved water sources" (EDIM). - Household sources of potable water (EDIM): - 40 percent use tap water in the housing unit; - 39 percent use tap water from the courtyard; - 15 percent use water from a public tap or standpipe. - Coverage and quality: - EDAM-IS2 estimated rate of coverage of water needs at 69 percent. - Coverage is only 60.8 percent of needs for human consumption and consumption by agriculture and livestock rearing. - Quality shortfall: salinity ratio well above WHO tolerances, with health and agricultural repercussions. - Cost and distributional impact: - Water by tanker truck can cost as much as eight times higher than ONEAD tariff: DF 500 per cubic meter vs ONEAD tariff of DF 62 per cubic meter. - Poor households on average pay two to three times as much per cubic meter as non-poor households. - Delivery by truck accounts for 11 percent of water supply for people in poor neighborhoods. - High water costs constrain household spending on medicine and education. - Time burden: - Women’s time availability limited by water collection chores; in rural areas, distance to water point can exceed ten kilometers. ### Sanitation - Urban household access to sanitation: estimated at 67.8 percent (EDIM 2006), slight improvement over 66 percent in 2002. - Sanitation largely free-standing (septic tanks and dry latrines) throughout territory, causing soil and water table pollution. - Capital city sanitation issues: - Accounts for 80 percent of fixed-residence households nationally. - Problems due to inadequate human and material resources of Technical Services (sewerage). - Irregular garbage collection and shortage of garbage containers lead to ubiquitous garbage piles. - Over 60 percent of waste collected daily is placed directly in the dump without sorting or prior treatment. ### Housing and urbanization - Migratory housing zones persist, mostly on the periphery of the capital, built without planning and lacking basic infrastructure (safe drinking water, sanitation, transportation). - Land tenure in these zones is irregular, increasing instability and prevalence of unemployment and exclusion. - Construction costs: - Building housing costs are high: six times the average annual household income for a housing unit made of solid materials; two and a half times the average annual household income for units made of light materials. - Ownership and spending (2002 data): - 50 percent of households own the housing they occupy. - Rental payments represent about 40 percent of household spending. ### Energy access and impacts - Electricity access: - 49.7 percent of households with fixed residences use electricity as main lighting source; 99.5 percent of these are urban (EDAM-IS2). - Only 15.9 percent of households in extreme poverty and 32.9 percent of those in relative poverty have access to electricity. - Energy for household needs: - Over 80 percent of Djibouti’s households use kerosene (EDIM 2006); kerosene high cost limits access for poor households, who substitute firewood, primarily in rural and nomad encampments. - Impacts of lack of energy: - Negative on education: inappropriate working environment affects training cycle for young people. - Negative on health: reduces effectiveness of health centers and regular availability of medical treatment. - Limits expansion of rural economic activities; limited access to adequate energy sources. - Potential solution: - Use of renewable energy sources (geothermal or wind-powered) could provide solutions for local development and employment. ### Characterization and spatial distribution of poverty - Poverty is widespread and localized: both rural and urban areas face extreme poverty, but urban poverty is concentrated in particular neighborhoods. - Djibouti City (accounts for 80 percent of population): - Contains 65.2 percent of relative poverty and 57.4 percent of extreme poverty. - Balbala-PK12 zone: many neighborhoods register income poverty rates in excess of 70 percent. - Specific neighborhoods with extreme poverty often exceeding 50 percent: Wahlehdaba Nord, PK-12, Bâche-à-Eau, Phare d’Ambouli, Ancien Balbala, Qarawil. - Hayabley neighborhood has the greatest participation in poverty in the capital city, followed by Ancien Balbala, Bahache, and Quartier 7 Bis. - East of the Ambouli wadi (old city) contains three residential neighborhood groups: - North residential districts (Héron, Marabout, Serpent, République) with no poverty. - "People’s districts" (neighborhoods 1 to 7, Arhiba, Ambouli, Djebel) with poverty rates 25 percent to over 75 percent; extreme poverty generally below 40 percent. - Housing estates and recent urban development projects where middle class lives, with poverty levels lower than 25 percent and extreme poverty below 10 percent. ### Data limitations and measurement notes - National statistics and poverty information system suffer many gaps; available poverty data date from 2002 (EDAM-IS2 and EDSF/PAPFAM), limiting objective assessment of changes to date. - EDIM 2006 (Djibouti Multiple Indicators Survey) may allow analysis of changes in human poverty; EDAM-IS2 remains the reference database to be compared with EDIM to identify changes. - Latest general population census published in 1983; various surveys produce divergent population estimates due to differing methodologies, population composition (fixed residents, nomads, homeless), and magnitude of migratory flows. - Box 2 — Measuring poverty: - Two practical approaches: (i) Income poverty; (ii) Poverty of living conditions and potentials. - Relative poverty threshold (2002): DF 198,229 per year (US$3.3 per person per day). - Absolute (extreme) poverty threshold (2002): DF 114,096 per year (US$1.8 per person per day). - Extreme poverty threshold corresponds to daily caloric intake of 2115 per adult equivalent. - Relative poverty threshold reflects high level of prices in Djibouti and its impact on household living conditions. - Poverty mapping: - Recent mapped multidimensional compilation (based on DISED surveys 2002–2004) produced detailed spatial distribution of poverty in Djibouti City, helpful for identifying sites for investments and poverty reduction programs, though maps do not show the current situation since data are from 2002 and 2004. *Source: _cr12131 - 8. While these unemployment figures mask the phenomenon of underemployment, they do; https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/_cr12131.pdf* ### 33. Housing quality is closely linked with the poverty level of residents. This is particularly ### _cr12131 - 33. Housing quality is closely linked with the poverty level of residents. This is particularly ### Housing quality and poverty distribution - Housing quality is closely linked with the poverty level of residents, particularly extreme poverty. - Map No. 5 (precariousness of housing) and Map No. 2 (extreme poverty rate) are in perfect correlation, with neighborhoods of extreme poverty concentrated in the Balbala suburb. - Over 80 percent of the housing units in these neighborhoods are built with corrugated steel, planks, or metal panels retrieved from various sources. - Precarious housing is defined as any housing unit that is not built with walls made of brick or concrete block. ### Access to water, electricity, and overcrowding - Map No. 6 on water access shows almost all neighborhoods within the former perimeter for Djibouti City have access to water; exception: peripheral zone PK12 did not have access to water in 2004 as it had not yet been connected to the grid. - Housing units defined as having access to water and electricity are those with individual connections to ONEAD and EDD. - Electricity access is more closely correlated with poverty level (Map No. 7); electricity is less essential and more costly than water. - Overcrowding (Map No. 4) is similar across the two large western and eastern parts of the city, except in well-to-do residential areas and middle-class urban development projects and estates. - Overcrowding is defined in terms of the number of individuals living more than three to a room (UN Habitat). - Causes of overcrowding include a high number of households and shelter extended to close family, migrants from neighboring countries, and rural-to-urban migration. ### Infant and child health indicators - Infant mortality rates are particularly high in Qarawil, Arhiba, and Cité FNP (Map 8). - Highest malnutrition rates (20-40 percent) are found in Cité FNP and Ancien Balbala neighborhoods (Map 9). - Rates of underweight children of most concern: Quartier 1, Engueilla 2, and Bâche-à-Eau (45-75 percent), followed by Wahlehdaba Nord, Ancien Balbala, Quartier 7 Bis, Djebel, and Cité Cheik Osman (Map 10). - Most troublesome rates of failure to thrive are found in PK-12, Wahlehdaba Nord, Phare d’Ambouli et Dejbel, and Arhiba (Map 11). - Infant mortality is defined as the number of live-birth children having died during the first 12 months of life. - Anthropometric indicators (malnutrition, underweight, and failure to thrive) were calculated on the basis of a reference population made up of children under age 5 at the time of the survey, constructed in accordance with WHO guidelines and reference tables. - There is no clear correlation between infant health indicators by neighborhood; overall these indicators reflect income poverty. Wahlehdaba Nord, Arhiba, and Djebel are among the greatest sources of concern in both rankings and are ranked among the poorest on the income poverty maps. ### Spatial social exclusion and consequences - Cartographic study conclusions: poverty affects the vast majority of Djibouti’s population; the situation is more dramatic in peripheral neighborhoods (Balbala suburb and PK12). - Residents of Balbala and PK12 face social isolation due to geographical distancing, high transportation costs (major centers of interest are in the inner city), and little or no access to infrastructure and basic social services (water, healthcare, health centers, cultural and sporting venues). - These disadvantages place inhabitants at the margin of society, making them socially excluded, with potential negative consequences for national social cohesiveness. ### Poverty assessment (Box 3: Poverty in Djibouti, a new assessment) - Per capita GDP grew by an annual average of 1.6 percent over the period 2004–2006. - Assuming relationships from EDAM-IS2 (2002) remain relevant, extreme income poverty may have decreased slightly. - PRSP medium-term goal: incidence of extreme poverty reduced to 36.1 percent by 2006. - Education: net school enrollment increased to 66.2 percent (improvement over 2001–2002 GER of 42.7 percent) but below PRSP goal of 73 percent. Gender parity index is 0.98. Literacy rate among women aged 15–24 is 47.5 percent. - Health: IMR and ICMR are respectively 67 per thousand and 94 per thousand. PRSP goal for IMR (75 per thousand) has been exceeded; PRSP goal for ICMR (85 per thousand) not achieved. - Vaccination rates for children under 12 months vary from 46.2 percent (Polio 3) to 87.5 percent (BCG). - Children’s nutritional status: 30 percent are stunted; 20 percent are wasting away or underweight. - Reproductive health: 92.3 percent of women who gave birth in the two years preceding the survey received prenatal care from qualified personnel; 87.4 percent gave birth at a health center. - Awareness of HIV/AIDS prevention: 40.8 percent say they know of at least two methods of prevention (urban: 41.2 percent; rural: 28.1 percent). - Access to safe drinking water: 93.5 percent of Djiboutians obtain water from upgraded sources (Djibouti City: 95.5 percent; other districts: 83 percent; rural areas: 52.5 percent). - Sanitation: 67 percent of the population use upgraded latrines (capital: 68.8 percent; other districts: 57.5 percent; urban: 69.1 percent; rural: 17.3 percent). Correlates with educational level of head of household. - Khat consumption: overall percentage of users is 25.3; men: 43.5 percent; few disparities between urban and rural areas. ### MDG progress overview (summary table text) - PRSP/MDG targets include halving extreme poverty by 2015, halting/reversing HIV/AIDS, halving child malnutrition, halving persons without access to safe drinking water, achieving universal primary education, achieving gender parity in primary and secondary schooling, reducing maternal mortality by three-fourths by 2015, reducing under-5 mortality by two-thirds by 2015, and reversing environmental resource loss. - For each goal the appraisal categories shown include: Probably, Potentially, Unlikely, Lack of data, and condition gradings: Strong, Medium, Poor, Very poor. ### Evaluation of PRSP implementation (2004–2006) and strategic pillars - PRSP medium-term goals (by 2006): (i) increase average GDP growth to 4.6 percent over 2004-2006; (ii) reduce incidence of extreme poverty to 36.1 percent; (iii) increase GER to 73 percent. - Four complementary strategic pillars: - (i) Revitalize economic growth and enhance competitiveness via structural measures and reforms in macroeconomic area, legal environment for business, public enterprises, and transport sector. - (ii) Promote gradual development of human resources: cohesive strategies in education and health, promote role of women, employment, income-generating activities for the poor, protect vulnerable segments. - (iii) Encourage sustainable local development and improve access to safe drinking water and universal basic services. - (iv) Promote good governance: strengthen democracy, decentralization, transparent management of public resources, and improve efficiency. ### Implementation results, challenges, and macroeconomic performance - Noteworthy progress over 2004–2006 in governance, economic growth, and certain social indicators (elections noted: presidential April 2005; legislative January 2003; regional/communal March 2006). - Growth: per the text, growth of 4.5 percent in 2006; strong FDI inflows contributed. - Despite progress, sizable population groups continue to live in difficult conditions; increased FDI and transit-hub strengthening have done very little to benefit these groups. - Djibouti economy recent performance and projections: - Economic growth was 3.7 percent on average in 2004-2006. - Real GDP up to 5.8 percent in 2008 after 5.3 percent in 2007. - Projections for 2009-2011 estimate GDP growth of roughly 7 percent. - In 2009 acceleration continued to about 5 percent. - Drivers of growth include substantial inflows of FDI (30 percent) in infrastructure/construction and public works (Doraleh port, hotel infrastructure, roads), modernization of transport sequence, investments in telecommunications, rebound in cattle exports, increased port activities, growth in building sector, and far-reaching macroeconomic reforms. - Inflation: - Increase in consumer prices on a rolling 12-month basis was 9.2 percent at end-2008. - Inflation calculated on the basis of the average index for the preceding 12 months was 12 percent in December 2008 as compared to 5 percent at end-December 2007 and 3.5 percent in 2006. - Investment shares: - Share of investment in GDP rose from 23 percent in 2005 to 42 percent in 2007. - Private sector investment increased from 13.9 percent of GDP in 2005 to 30.6 percent of GDP in 2007. - Public sector investment increased from 7.5 percent of GDP in 2005 to 11.2 percent in 2007. - Current account and public finance: - Current transactions deficit deepened to 39 percent of GDP in 2008 as against 25.6 percent in 2007. - Average fiscal deficit was 1.3 percent of GDP versus PRSP objective of 4.8 percent of GDP. - In 2005 there was a surplus of 0.2 percent of GDP and a substantial reduction of domestic arrears. ### Policy implications and priorities (from PRSP and analysis) - Maintain macroeconomic stability to support competitiveness and faster growth with objectives to: - (i) maintain control of the fiscal deficit despite pressure from increased public expenditure in sectors with poverty reduction potential; - (ii) control the external deficit; - (iii) strengthen the financial sector. - Prioritize public investment in promising sectors: fisheries, agriculture, livestock rearing, tourism, and mineral resources. - Ensure that FDI and transit-hub development translate into inclusive benefits for poor and marginalized populations, especially in peripheral neighborhoods (Balbala, PK12), through improved access to infrastructure and basic social services, reduced transport costs, and measures to reduce social isolation. *Italic: IMF staff report content (PDF chapter/section provided).* ### 53. The overall fiscal deficit remained in the vicinity of 2.6 percent of GDP in 2007, even as ### 53. The overall fiscal deficit remained in the vicinity of 2.6 percent of GDP in 2007, even as ### Fiscal performance and public finances - Overall fiscal deficit remained in the vicinity of 2.6 percent of GDP in 2007. - Basic fiscal deficit (excluding externally financed revenue and expenditure) dropped from 7.2 percent in 2006 to 4.9 percent in 2007. - Tax receipts declined by about 1 percent of GDP owing to the exemptions granted for new investments and the low level of job creation; this decline was offset by exceptional collections of overdue taxes. - Current expenditure cut back from 30 percent of GDP in 2006 to about 26.5 percent in 2007. - Public investment increased markedly to 3.7 percent of GDP in 2007. - Government external arrears as at end-2006 were settled, but a new accumulation of arrears resulted in delays in the disbursement of some loans. ### External debt and public external obligations - External debt contracted or guaranteed by the government remained in the vicinity of 60 percent of GDP. - Public external debt rose from DF 84 billion in 2007 to DF 101 billion in 2008, an increase of 20 percent. - The increase in external public debt reflects efforts to create a growth dynamic to improve competitiveness and reduce poverty. ### Financial sector and domestic liquidity - Financial sector expansion and diversification attracted new operators, expanding domestic liquidity and improving bank lending activity. - Domestic lending grew by 8 percent in 2006 over the 2005 level, occurring in a context of declining interest rates. - Expansion of domestic liquidity resulted from favorable economic conditions, regularity in the payment of government wages, and an attractive interest rate policy. ### Credit to the private sector and banking competition - Credit to the private sector increased by 23 percent in 2007 and 32 percent in 2008. - Growth in private credit was driven in part by housing and construction expansion and intensified competition. - Three new foreign banks arrived in 2006–2007, bringing the total number of banks to eight; their entry reduced margins and broadened the range of financial instruments. ### Structural reforms - Considerable progress made in structural reforms, notably: public finance transparency, civil service reform, legal regime for private enterprises, and combating money laundering and the financing of terrorism. ### Private investment strategy and outcomes - Strategy to attract private investment built on three pillars: - (i) creation of a legal framework conducive to private investment; - (ii) reforms to reduce production factor costs and improve management of public enterprises; - (iii) improvement of the labor environment. - New Labor Code adopted in December 2005 making recruitment requirements more flexible. - Private investment share of GDP reached 42 percent of GDP in 2007 and 22 percent in 2006, compared with 9.7 percent of GDP in 2005 (influence of FDI). - Large investments concentrated in the port sector (oil terminal and container terminal), representing a cumulative total of over US$400 million. - Banking and hotel sectors received sizable funding during 2004–2006. - Hotel and tourism investments amounted to US$294 million; construction of the Kempinski hotel cost US$75 million; facilities on Moucha and Maskali Islands will require an investment of US$100 million by 2012. - Constraints remain: inadequate and sometimes inconsistent legal and institutional resources for businesses; delays in adoption of a Commercial Code and in creation of an International Arbitration Center within the Chamber of Commerce and Industry. ### Inflation and mitigation measures - Consumer price index rose by 9.2 percent in annual average terms in 2008, compared to 5 percent in 2007 and 3.5 percent a year earlier. - Government measures (elimination of taxes, distribution of foodstuffs, subsidies, etc.) helped attenuate inflation’s effects on vulnerable households. ### Positioning Djibouti as a regional market - Efforts to promote Djibouti as a commercial, financial, and economic market of note focus on developing, improving quality of, and reducing costs of: (i) transport; (ii) Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs); and (iii) energy. - Doraleh port construction (container terminal and oil terminal) expected to consolidate Djibouti’s role as a corridor for Ethiopian transit and a trans-shipment port, diversify port activity, and position Djibouti as a regional and continental maritime trade platform. - Road network upgrades nearly complete on segments linking Djibouti to Ethiopia and Eritrea (South Corridor and RN 14 between Tadjourah and Obock, almost 80 percent) and urban/peri-urban bypasses. - Open skies policy since 2000 led to air transport development: passenger increase of over 10 percent between 2004 and 2006 and goods increase of over 11 percent during the same period. - High cost of production factors (lack of skilled labor, cost of energy) limits Djibouti’s position and spillovers to living conditions and businesses remain limited. ### Other sources of growth: tourism, primary sectors, mining - Diversification targets tourism, fisheries, agriculture, livestock breeding, and mining to reduce dependence on services and expand local participation in growth. - Tourism: adequate infrastructure in place; country appears on programs of about a dozen tour operators specializing in theme travel; sector employs about 1,500 persons; investments and facility improvements noted but training capacity reduced by closure of Arta hotel school. - Agriculture: primary sector contributes 3.6 percent of GDP a year; sector grew 25.8 percent in 2007 over 2006 due to rising exports of cattle on the hoof from Djibouti Port. - Potential cultivable land estimated at 10,000 hectares, with about 1,000 hectares currently used; 1,600 farmers employ nearly 3,600 persons. - Horticultural production for 2004/2005 estimated at 5,369 metric tons, compared to 5,000 metric tons in 2001 and 4,400 metric tons in 1995; production covers barely 10 percent of national requirements for fruits and vegetables. - Fisheries: 372 kilometers of coastline and abundant resources estimated at nearly 50,000 metric tons a year; current production about 1,000 metric tons a year (potential 48,000 metric tons, exploitation rate of less than 3 percent); exports amount to no more than 20 metric tons a year; sector employs about a thousand people. - Fisheries development priorities: rehabilitate and modernize production facilities; develop exports by meeting standards; introduce co-management with fisheries communities; need for capacity building and improved access to financing. - Livestock: sector heavily affected by droughts and epidemics (Rift Valley fever); since 2003 Djibouti serves as transit hub with resumption of cattle exports; livestock sector activities employ nearly a third of the labor force. - Cattle exports in fiscal year 2007 were 1,952,542 head of cattle, compared to 357,396 and 39,129 head in 2006 and 2005, respectively. - Mining priorities: exploit salt potential and maximize employment/regional development impact; promote integrated economic pole for Lake Assal salt exports and tourism; map mineral-bearing sectors and conduct geological surveys; survey and promote geothermal resources with private partners. - Salt: current production raw non-iodized salt for industrial use exported to Ethiopia; local salt consumption 5,000 metric tons a year; Ethiopia received 128,494 metric tons in 2003. ### Human capital and education - Human capital development is a major pillar of socioeconomic policy; focus on access to high-quality education and basic services and reducing inequalities. - Education priorities: improve access, equity, and quality across basic, technical and vocational, secondary, higher, and adult (particularly female literacy) education; build institutional capacity and partnerships. - Primary education indicators: - Primary gross enrollment ratio (GER) increased from 54.8 percent to 68.9 percent from 2005 to 2007 (increase of 12.1 percentage points). - Average GER rose from 33.6 percent in 2005 to 47.4 percent in 2007 (increase of 13.8 percentage points). - Primary school admissions increased from 54.9 percent to 63.5 percent in 2005/2006; gross admissions reached 67.5 percent in 2006/2007. - Gross intake rate (GIR) for the first year of primary school reached 78 percent in 2007/2008 (jumped 10 points). - Dropout rates: 4.1 percent at end of first year and 4.6 percent at end of second year. - Repetition rates: 5.5 percent between the first and fifth years, and 6.3 percent in the seventh year. - Gender parity index reached 0.98, indicating gender disparities have been virtually eliminated. - Programs supporting schooling include construction of new schools/classrooms and “school canteen” and “school supplies” programs. - Curriculum reforms: new “competence-based” approach developed at CRIPEN; local textbooks and teaching guides distributed without charge; final examination procedures overhauled with ongoing evaluation. - Technical and vocational education: construction of several post-primary vocational training centers. - Secondary education: net enrollment ratio increased from 15.1 percent in 2000/2001 to 36.7 percent in 2006/2007, with 39.5 percent for boys. *Source: IMF country report content provided.* ### 33.8 percent for girls, respectively, and a marked difference between urban areas (37.4 ### _cr12131 - 33.8 percent for girls, respectively, and a marked difference between urban areas (37.4 ### Education: access, expansion, quality, and financing - Higher education expansion: - University students grew from 477 in 2000 to 1,928 in 2006 (including 771 women), an average annual increase on the order of 25 percent. - In 2008, the number of students grew to 2,453. - The University Center [Pôle universitaire] established in 2000 became the University of Djibouti. - Adult literacy and non-formal education: - EDIM-2006 figures: female literacy rate for women aged 15–24 increased to 47.5 percent. - A national strategy for literacy and non-formal education has been adopted. - Institutional capacity-building measures: - (i) training of teachers and professors at the National Education Personnel Training Center (CFPEN); - (ii) closer educational supervision of teachers and heads of schools; - (iii) upgrading of inspections. - Partnership and community engagement: - Introduction of a system of partnership and co-management of school life in schools, colleges, and lycées; regional education committees set up in districts; expanded involvement of development partners. - Budgetary allocations and financing: - Over 1999-2004, education budget allocations increased from 16 percent to 24.8 percent of the State budget. - Priority measures for 2004–2006 cost US$93 million; financing under projects and programs amounts to US$57 million. - In 2006, the sector received a World Bank grant of US$3 million to support primary education (FTI context). - Government devoted budget allocations to education estimated at 25.6 percent in 2006, 27.9 percent in 2007, and 29.3 percent in 2008. - Remaining challenges and constraints: - Preschools remain optional and concentrated in private schools in Djibouti City; many children do not attend primary school due to shortage/unsuitability of facilities and high opportunity costs. - Marked disparities by standard of living and residence; fewer poor students and fewer girls at higher education cycles. - Quality issues: crowded classes (on average, over 40 students per class), shortage of qualified teachers, inadequate supervision and ongoing teacher training. - Literacy difficulties linked to: (i) school dropouts; (ii) lack of policy and action framework promoting curriculum synergy; (iii) insufficient coordination, monitoring, and evaluation. - Financing remains insufficient to meet expansion and quality challenges; sector absorption capacity could be limited for timely implementation of new activities. ### Health: coverage, reforms, and remaining gaps - PRSP health objectives and strategy pillars: - Objectives: increase access to health care (especially for the poor), improve quality, and make system more equitable. - Four pillars: (i) reform institutional framework; (ii) improve global coverage and access for the poor; (iii) create viable financing mechanism; (iv) decentralization and greater community participation. - Achievements after three years of PRSP implementation: - IMR improved to 67 per thousand. - Percentage of children receiving all vaccinations (BCG, DCT3, Polio3, measles) increased from 32.9 percent to 38.6 percent in 2006. - Proportion of pregnant women receiving prenatal care from skilled staff increased to 92.3 percent in 2006. - Programmatic and institutional actions: - Adoption of official texts restructuring the health care system. - Focus areas: reproductive health program, intensified EPI vaccination efforts, measles elimination and polio eradication plans, national strategy for comprehensive treatment of childhood diseases, community-level malnutrition treatment protocol, treatment of diarrhea and pneumonia. - Other achievements: central office for procurement of essential equipment and medicines; community pharmacies offering generics; mobile medical teams for hard-to-access areas; “Essential development needs” program for disadvantaged communities; malaria control efforts; national anti-tuberculosis plan 2006-2010; continuation of 2003–2007 HIV/AIDS framework plan. - Budgetary trend: - Health budget allocations increased from 7.1 percent in 2004 to about 10 percent in 2006. - Persistent shortcomings and needs: - Health indicators, though improving, have not reached acceptable levels; MDG achievement by 2015 is in doubt. - Required actions: step up infrastructure, qualified human resources, high-quality affordable medicines, decentralization, public involvement in management, strengthened data collection/analysis, monitoring and evaluation, and improved oversight. - Sector affected by inefficient budget programming and failure to prepare a budget consistent with specific and measurable targets. ### Integration of women in development: representation, education, health, and economics - Strategic priorities in PRSP for women: (i) decision-making; (ii) health; (iii) education; (iv) economics. - Political representation and public posts: - Parliament: 9 out of 65 members, or almost 14 percent, are women. - Women hold high-level posts including two Ministers, members of Regional Councils, and assistant district heads. - Health and harmful practices: - Efforts to eliminate harmful traditional practices bolstered: ratification of the Maputo Protocol, nationwide information and awareness campaigns, prohibition of genital mutilation practices. - Education and literacy disparities: - Joint literacy campaigns by Ministry for the Advancement of Women and Ministry of Education with NGOs and associations including UNFD. - EDIM findings: 47.5 percent of women aged 15–24 were literate in 2006, but only 14.2 percent in rural areas and 48.4 percent in urban areas. - Economic inclusion and microfinance: - Creation of the Social Fund for Development (FSD) to provide microcredit for income-generating activities; FSD merged with ADDS in 2008. - EDAM-IS 2002 data: unemployment affects women at 68.8 percent and men at 54.6 percent. - Women play an active and leading role in the informal sector. - Financing needs and gaps for SNIFD: - National Strategy for Women’s Integration into Development (SNIFD) estimated financing requirement: US$15.551 million. - Only 33 percent of investment needs mobilized at the midpoint of the strategy; 67 percent remains to be financed for activities scheduled for 2007–2012. - Remaining obstacles: - Key constraints: representation in decision-making and senior posts; enrollment of girls and female literacy; health outcomes below MDGs; employment; access to capital and limited impact of microcredit. - Underlying challenges: prejudice, socio-cultural constraints, tradition, and misinterpretation of religion. - Weaknesses in SNIFD monitoring and evaluation: lack of performance indicators and quantified targets. ### Access to basic services: water, sanitation, and housing - Water resources and production constraints: - Only available water sources: groundwater and wadi runoff; adversely affected by arid climate and saltwater wedge; salinity higher than WHO limits. - Seawater desalination constrained by initial investment, considerable energy needs, and possible high cost per cubic meter. - Rural and urban water project actions (2004–2008): - Rural: identification and inventory of water points; rehabilitation/renovation; promotion of dewatering adapted technologies; wells dug (mostly in rural areas exposed to desertification); retaining ponds and buried cisterns; participatory approaches with local water point management committees for oversight and light maintenance. - Urban (ONEAD-managed): projects targeted increasing production of safe drinking water. - Major program launched: - 2008: program for the mobilization of surface water and sustainable land management (PROMES-GDT) launched; overall cost estimated at US$11 million. - Remaining water system challenges and costs: - Production meets only 75 percent of needs, estimated at almost 20 million cubic meters a year. - High cost of production: DF 136. - Delivery cost disparities: DF 62/m3 for pipes connected to the ONED network to DF 500/m3 for tanker trucks. - Technical, financial, and organizational capacity constraints at ONED. - Access statistics (EDAM-IS2-2002 vs EDIM-2006): - 93.5 percent of the population has access to an improved source of safe drinking water in 2006. - 2006: 95.2 percent in urban areas and 52.5 percent in rural areas. - 2002: 84.1 percent of the population (92.6 percent in rural areas and 50.9 percent in rural areas) — (note: source text presents these comparative figures). - Lack of additional information on cost and volumes used by households prevents a comprehensive overview. - Sanitation and housing developments and deficits: - Urban sanitation achievements: strengthened rain water drainage networks; construction of subsidized housing units; reorganization of the Ministry of Housing, Urban Planning, and Territorial Development; master plan for Djibouti City and regional urban centers; implementation of national sanitation policy with creation of ONEAD. - Persistent rapid expansion of unplanned migratory settlements with extremely inadequate basic infrastructure; unhealthful conditions from deficient sanitation harming urban health. - Rehabilitation works pursued for primary drainage in capital and secondary cities, focusing on arrondissements 1 to 6; resources for collection, treatment, and evacuation of waste water to eliminate direct disposal to the sea and improve environmental hygiene in poorer neighborhoods. - Specific sanitation improvements: Arhiba, Einguela, and Peltier hospital neighborhoods; elimination of sea wastewater disposal from Wadajir and Makka Moukarama estates; enhancement of drainage and viability of Gabode 4 and 5 estates in progress. - Sanitation access indicator: - EDIM-2006: 67.8 percent of households live in houses furnished with improved sanitary facilities (use sanitary facilities for elimination of human waste). - 2002: 20 percent were connected to collective sanitation systems in selected neighborhoods of Djibouti City; 80 percent used individual sanitation approaches (dry latrines, cesspools, septic tanks) causing spot soil and water table pollution. *Source: IMF country report content provided in the supplied PDF excerpt.* ### 128. In connection with the policy on access to housing by all population groups, and ### 128. In connection with the policy on access to housing by all population groups, and ### Housing: subsidized estates, stock, and costs - Government permitted construction of several subsidized housing estates to improve access for low income households. - Estates built over 2004-2008: - 842 units (Hodane1) - 285 units (Gargaar) - 44 units (Doumeira) - 340 units built for reintegration of people displaced by armed conflict - Hodane 2 estate (642 units) and Chebelley estate (200 units) work began in October 2008; to be inaugurated in the near future. - Creation of 400 new housing units in PK 12 following relocation after Ambouli wadi flooding in April 2004. - Housing tenure and needs: - Only slightly less than 50 percent of households own the housing units they occupy. - Rents account for 40 percent of household expenditure. - Annual needs estimated at 2,500 housing units nationally, of which 2,000 are in the capital city. - Currently estimated that only a third of needs are met by the existing housing stock. - Construction cost barriers: - Cost of a housing unit made of solid materials: six times the average annual household income. - Cost of a unit made of light materials: 2.5 times the average annual household income. - High costs attributed to preponderance of imported materials and high cost of labor. - Urbanization and planning challenges: - Urban population growth: 3 percent a year. - Low capacity to provide developed land with basic infrastructure leads to proliferation of illegal and unplanned migratory settlements. - Weaknesses impede development of urban observation systems to analyze land consumption, urban dynamics, density of migratory settlements, and urban poverty. ### Employment and income-generating activities - Unemployment: - EDAM-IS2/2002 estimated nearly 60 percent of the labor force affected by unemployment; majority women and young people. - Note: figure may exaggerate by not fully accounting for informal sector employment. - Government programs to combat unemployment: - (i) highly labor-intensive infrastructure - (ii) vocational training - (iii) development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) - (iv) development of microfinance - Labor-intensive program outcomes: - ADETIP-created temporary jobs: annual average nearly 30,155 person/days for 2004-2006. - This represents an increase of almost 21 percent compared with 2003. - Vocational training: - Employment promotion strategy based on job-oriented training has yet to be launched. - CFPA capacities strengthened and training paths broadened. - ANEFIP and private agencies offer job-seeker assistance; no information on scope of private operations. - Modified National Service (SNA) for youth insertion (15-24 years old) and unmarried adults without diplomas: - Three stages: (i) three-month military training; (ii) nine-month vocational training; (iii) practical knowledge application in Army or civilian life. - Initial cost: DF 225 million in 2004; planned expansion (example DF 449 million in 2005). - Questions remain about cost-effectiveness. - Microfinance and FSD impact: - FSD financed roughly 3,000 income-generating activities for women via microcredit ranging from DF 30,000 to DF 200,000. - FSD has granted approximately 5,640 microcredits to almost 3,020 women for an amount of DF 282,819,000. - Microcredits reached poor neighborhoods in the capital (including Balbala and PK12) and the five interior regions; rural zone not yet served. - DISED impact study (February 2007) findings: - Over 95 percent of women surveyed state they could create activities thanks to loans. - About 2,800 jobs were created or sustained between 2001 and 2006, average of 560 jobs a year. - 74 percent of recipients appreciated ease of access to credit compared with banking system. - Post-2008 microfinance expansion: - Government establishing savings and credit unions beginning in 2008; two (CPEC and CNEC) have opened. - Objective: promote microfinance and offer financial and non-financial services to disadvantaged social strata; create network of people’s banks to combat poverty in interior regions. ### Social welfare: institutions, spending, and programs - Institutional developments: - Merger of social security funds (OPS) and national retirement fund (CNR) in 2007. - Creation of National Social Security Fund (CNSS) in late 2009. - Retirement reform: - 2001 reform rebalanced job distribution between young and older personnel; enabled early retirement and support for hiring young people. - Social programs in place: - Pensions and medical insurance, microcredit for income-generating activities, distribution of school supplies, food, medicines. - No unemployment insurance exists. - Social spending composition: - Total spending on social welfare programs: 10 percent of GDP. - 5.1 percent devoted to pensions and medical insurance. - 4.3 percent to subsidies (private schools, public media, scholarships for study abroad, housing subsidies for civil servants). - 0.5 percent to programs targeting the poor and vulnerable. - Other ministries and ADDS: - Ministries (Advancement of Women, Agriculture, Education, Health) preparing social welfare programs (microcredit, distribution of supplies, etc.). - ADDS implemented job-creating social projects under National Solidarity Fund established in 2008. ### Protection of vulnerable groups - Nomads: - Benefited from pastureland water supply programs and animal health programs. - Persistent cyclical drought leaves nomads in chronic food insecurity. - Receive food aid and have access to basic infrastructure (education, health care, safe drinking water). - Street children: - Real scope little known; no protection strategy in place; assistance from a few welfare associations. - Orphans and Vulnerable Children (OVCs): - Ministry for the Advancement of Women and Family Welfare devised policy within child protection framework. - Pilot care arrangement established. - National cooperation commission for care of OVCs created in December 2008 for coordination. - Displaced persons: - Received food aid in rural and urban areas, access to medical care and safe drinking water. - BND program (Ministry of Health and Regional WHO) covers 21 sites in zones with vulnerable populations over 100 persons; four components: - (i) social (training) - (ii) economic (AGR, granting microcredit DF 30,000 to DF 50,000, never more than 10 simultaneous borrowers, interest paid to a village fund) - (iii) rural development (improvement of agricultural perimeters and water points for food security) - (iv) promotion of health - Institutional responses: - 2008 establishment of Djibouti Social Development Agency (ADDS) by merging ADETIP and the FSD to implement sustainable social and economic development programs financed by PREPUD Projects and National Solidarity Fund (FSN). - March 2008 creation of Secretariat of State for National Solidarity (SESN) to reduce social fracture and combat poverty and social exclusion. ### Promotion of young people - Government efforts focus on: - (i) insertion (e.g., SNA) - (ii) increasing involvement in decision-making - (iii) promotion of participation in sports - Youth participation structures: - National youth consultation held in January 2007. - Djibouti National Youth Council (CNJD) created in March 2007. - Community Development Centers (CDCs): six refurbished and nearly one new center being built for each neighborhood of Djibouti City and regions. - Sports promotion: - Rehabilitation of former Djibouti municipal stadium (Project Goal, FIFA) led to idea of Technical Training Center. - Program to rehabilitate sports facilities in districts and equip vacant lots in poor neighborhoods; training of sports professionals and community socio-cultural leaders. - Limitations and youth challenges: - Efforts lack strategic focus, reference framework, and coordination. - Problems include: - (i) access to education that meets market needs - (ii) unemployment – over 90 percent of young people between 15 and 24 years of age are idle - (iii) confidence in future – more than half of young people are thinking of emigrating ### Basic socioeconomic infrastructure and equipment: water and energy - Core challenges: - Water and energy are the two greatest challenges for the Government of Djibouti. - Country unable to provide requisite quality and facilitate access for the majority of the population. - Water program components: - Construction of new boreholes - Sea water desalination - Recovery of rain water (dams, lakes, wadis, etc.) - Recovery of surface water - Energy initiatives: - Improve electricity supply (installation of new power plant in Balbala and procurement of new power generation systems) - Electrification of disadvantaged neighborhoods and villages using solar power - Establish a connection with the Ethiopian grid - Construction of a geothermal plant at Assal - Development of alternative energy sources (wind, solar, etc.) - Poverty programs: - Microfinance alone insufficient to resolve poverty. - ADDS implementing PREPUD (Project to Reduce Urban Poverty in Djibouti) with funding of about US$30 million. - PREPUD objective: “increasing access to infrastructure, basic services and equipment, community development, and microcredit for the poor populations of the urban neighborhoods of Djibouti City and the administrative centers of the Districts.” ### Food security and combating an unpredictable climate - Food insecurity drivers: - Cyclical global inflation and recurrent drought worsen food insecurity, particularly for nomads. - Government measures implemented: - Grants of agricultural equipment (pedal-powered pumps) to market garden cooperatives - Exemption from taxes on agricultural equipment and inputs - Abolition of taxes to reduce prices of basic commodities - Control of surface water and promotion of forage crops - Early warning systems in at-risk zones in partnership with FewsNet - Price subsidies on essential commodities - Distribution of basic foodstuffs to needy populations - Strategic land initiatives to reduce import dependence: - 16,000-hectare land area at Khadaref (cooperation with Sudan) to improve perimeter for food crops. - 5,000 hectares of arable land at Baleh in the Oromiya region (400 kilometers southeast of Addis Ababa) made available by Ethiopia in 2008. - Aim: lay groundwork for the first strategic food security stock to address price fluctuations and reduce dependence on food imports. ### Governance and consolidation of democratic achievements - PRSP priorities: - Modernization of the State and promotion of good governance as prerequisites for development and poverty reduction. - Main pillars: (i) consolidation of democratic achievements; (ii) promotion of good local governance; (iii) reform of justice; (iv) continuation of administrative reform; (v) promotion of good economic and financial governance. - Consolidation of democratic achievements: - Free, transparent, and pluralistic presidential elections held in April 2005 and March 2006, respectively. - A coalition of [number] parties governs the country, and Parliament includes opposition deputies. - An independent electoral commission has been established. *Source: IMF country report content (paragraphs 128–163).* ### 164. Institutional consolidation has affected the human rights situation, with: (i) the ### _cr12131 - 164. Institutional consolidation has affected the human rights situation, with: (i) the ### Human rights and women's rights - Institutional changes: - Creation of a ministerial department responsible for the promotion and protection of human rights. - Inclusion in the Constitution of a chapter devoted exclusively to human rights. - Ratification of a number of international conventions. - Creation of a National Human Rights Commission and its Executive Office. - Women’s rights — outcomes of SNIFID implementation: - Improved representation of women in politics via the introduction of a quota of at least 10 percent, enabling seven women to enter Parliament following the most recent legislative elections. - Women beginning to occupy top posts in the public sector (two Ministers, President of the Supreme Court) and in the private sector. - Remaining challenges for women: - Despite promulgation and enforcement of the Family Code, women still suffer from domestic violence and harmful traditional practices, such as FGM. ### Local governance and participatory development - Decentralization strategy priorities: - Ensure gradual transfer of powers depending on available resources and capacities of new local governments. - Create a capacity-building program using training and logistical support for new regional councils. - Promote partnership and twinning agreements in the context of decentralized international cooperation. - Institutional arrangements under the Decentralization Law (promulgated in 2002): - The region is made into a commune; territorial government now has a Regional Council. - Djibouti City has a special status: three communes, the Djibouti Council, and an elected mayor. - A gradual transfer of powers should take place as soon as possible. - Civil society priority actions: - Adoption of a legal and regulatory framework governing associations and NGOs following the diagnostic analysis. - Adoption of arrangements for coordination of NGO actions and development of a State-Regions-NGO tripartite partnership. - Formulation and implementation of a capacity-building program for development associations via training, support, and guidance. ### Reform of the justice system - Planned reforms: - Transformation of the Supreme Court into a court of cassation. - Gradual elimination of dual jurisdictions (integration of Sharia courts and abolition of indigenous courts). - Reform of the Appeals Court. - Decentralization of justice. - Actions taken following the States-General on Justice (2000) and subsequent action plan: - Reorganization and relocation of the Ministry of Justice. - Promulgation of the statute of the judiciary and reform of the High Council of the Judiciary. - Creation of the Court of Audit and Budgetary Discipline. - Revision of the remuneration of the judiciary. - Promulgation of the Family Code and creation of personal status tribunals and of the “Maadoun al charia” to improve family law and submit family disputes to full members of the judiciary specializing in personal status. - Rehabilitation of the Palais de Justice and of the prison system. - Persistent dysfunctions and shortcomings: - Outdated legal texts needing complete overhaul and adaptation. - Limited incorporation of provisions of international conventions into domestic law. - Inadequate training of judicial staff. - Problems of management and access of individuals to justice. - Inadequate compilation and dissemination of judicial statistics. - Lack of evaluation of judicial staff. - Irregular or inadequate reporting impeding accurate assessment of the quality and efficiency of justice. ### Administrative reform - Priority actions: - Introduction of a reliable system for management of civil servants, including creation of a single computerized register of civil servants accessible to all user services. - Enhancement of transparency in recruitment, with systematic use of competitive examinations. - Upgrading of the National Institute of Public Administration (INAP) to make it an efficient instrument for training and retraining officials of the State and local communities and a structure supporting reform. ### Economic and financial governance and INDS (second-generation PRSP) - Government goals: - Improve transparency in the management of public expenditure, tighten controls and accountability for use of public funds. - Optimize use of state financial resources and improve effectiveness of public expenditure. - INDS overview and principles: - INDS is the frame of reference for the country’s development and is intended as a continuing project for a term of office. - The Initiative addresses poverty reduction and exclusion through integrated government policies across political, social, economic, educational, cultural, and environmental dimensions. - Financing via a specific mechanism with no increase in taxes or tax burdens, with flexible implementation procedures. - Emphasis on good governance: accountability, transparency, professionalism, broad participation, integration and rationalization of public institutions, and ongoing follow-up and evaluation. - Strategic vision and national priorities: - Vision: transform Djibouti by 2015 into a peaceful, modern, equitable, open, economically competitive, and well-managed country where social division, poverty, marginalization, and exclusion are reduced and, over time, eliminated. - Priorities: - Promote accessibility of basic social services (education, health, energy, housing) and develop road, cultural, and sporting infrastructures. - Restructure national productive mechanisms to create employment sufficient to eradicate poverty and reduce unemployment, particularly among youth; include the informal sector in employment policy debates. - Provide assistance to persons exposed to major vulnerabilities or with specific needs. - Medium-term (horizon 2012) government objectives: - Reduce poverty. - Accelerate growth while safeguarding macroeconomic stability. - Achieve marked improvement in access to and quality of basic services while reducing disparities. - Foster harmonious and balanced land development. - Consolidate rule of law and anchor principles of good governance in public affairs. - Main quantified objectives: - Reduce the incidence of extreme poverty and relative poverty. - Increase the annual average rate of economic growth to 7 percent. - Increase the GER to 83 percent at the primary level and 61 percent at the secondary level, while continuing to reduce gender and spatial disparities. - Increase the literacy rate among 15-24 year-olds to 65 percent. - Reduce the IMR to 60 percent, the ICMR to 80 percent, and the MMR to 400 per 100,000 live births. - Increase the rate of health coverage within a 5 kilometer radius to 90 percent. - INDS strategic pillars (four): - Pillar 1: Accelerate growth and preserve the major macroeconomic balances. - Pillar 2: Develop human resources and ensure universal access to basic services. - Pillar 3: Promote solidarity, poverty reduction, combat exclusion and vulnerability, and pursue achievement of the MDGs. - Pillar 4: Anchor good governance and build capacities of public and private stakeholders. - Overall intervention strategies: - Improve social standing of poorest localities in rural areas and poor neighborhoods in urban and peri-urban areas. - Promote creation and strengthening of intake structures to assist persons in social distress (abandoned children, impoverished women, elderly, orphans). - Integrate temporal dimension by identifying emergency, short-, and medium-term actions. - Pillar 1 specifics — growth, macro balances, and infrastructure: - Foreign direct investment is expected to double between 2006 and 2011 and reach unprecedented levels (40 percent on average). - Focus areas: macroeconomic stability, strengthening Djibouti’s regional hub role, diversification of growth sources, and promotion of private investment. - Policy emphases: - Policies to accelerate growth. - Prudent fiscal and tax policies that allow massive financing of public investment in social and growth-supporting sectors. - Policies to control the external deficit and strengthen the financial sector. - Measures to strengthen purchasing power of low-income households, including boosting purchasing power of low-income wage earners and intensifying price controls to limit speculative abuses and maintain basic foodstuff prices; regular publication of food price statistics; implementation of law on competitiveness to combat monopolistic behaviors and unlawful agreements. - Optimistic growth scenario projections: - Average annual growth rate expected to exceed 7 percent for the period 2009–2012. - Public investment anticipated to represent about 6 percent of GDP. - Fiscal position expected to show an overall balance surplus equal to 0.9 percent of GDP in 2011. - Inflation rate expected to remain below 3 percent. - Current account deficit projected to worsen from 9 percent of GDP in 2006 to 14.2 percent of GDP in 2012, with a maximum of 18 percent in 2009. - Debt projected to climb from 58 percent of GDP in 2006 to 71 percent of GDP in 2012. - Domestic credit growth rate, at 8.3 percent above the 2005 rate, expected to increase by 15 percent a year between 2009 and 2012. - Infrastructure and Doraleh Port project: - Continue development of transport (port, sea, road, rail, air), ICTs, and energy. - Strategic partnership with Dubai Ports International (DPI) improved Port of Djibouti profitability and service quality. - Completion of the Doraleh project will include: (i) a container wharf meeting current international standards, (ii) an oil tanker port, and (iii) a commercial free trade zone likely to triple container traffic and facilitate specialization in bulk processing. *Source: _cr12131 - 164. Institutional consolidation has affected the human rights situation, with: (i) the* ### 189. In order to promote trade within the country and reduce the isolation of the Nord ### _cr12131 - 189. In order to promote trade within the country and reduce the isolation of the Nord ### Transport and connectivity - Maritime - Maritime connections (Djibouti-Tadjourah-Obock/Tadjourah-Obock) have been strengthened, including bringing a new ferry (kindly provided by Japan) on line. - Road - Road transport activities have limited impact on employment and poverty reduction due to a huge financial handicap, deficient road maintenance, and long distances poor people travel to reach places of business. - Policies expected to facilitate: - (i) organization of the development of the international corridor by providing it with private management; - (ii) opening up of poverty areas through the mobilization of appropriate financing; - (iii) support for national operators to acquire heavy equipment through access to low-interest loans and training in the transport trades. - Government will continue efforts to rehabilitate and maintain urban and rural roads and create motor terminals in the administrative centers of each of the five regions. - Railway - Railway is strategic between Djibouti and Ethiopia but faces serious financial and technical problems preventing full performance. - Reformulation of its current bi-national status to permit privatization and equipment renewal is intended to make it competitive for container, merchandise, and passenger transport. - Government will endeavor to restore the activities of the Djibouti-Ethiopia railroad to promote cross-border trade. - Air - Air transport's role is growing due to open sky policy and tourism emergence. - Management entrusted to DPI, expected to lead to modern infrastructures (new control tower, expansion of aircraft parking facilities, establishment of a cargo village) and development of sea-air trans-shipment as a transit corridor for landlocked Great Lakes African countries. - Construction of a new international airport with foreign partners is under study. ### ICTs (telecommunications) - Sector underperformed despite strategic location and state-of-the-art amenities; dissuasive rates limit dissemination. - Current operator experiencing management and development policy problems. - Government measures aimed at: - Providing universal access to ICTs and improving quality through substantial and continuous reduction of rates and increased autonomy and human and operational capacities of the operator, Djibouti-Telecom. - Expanding and improving telecommunications services regarding access, performance, and coverage, especially in rural areas. - Endeavoring to provide the broadest possible access to New Information and Communications Technologies. ### Energy - Energy characterized by scarcity and high costs; accessible to only 50 percent of the population, almost exclusively in urban areas. - Strategy: - Use domestic geothermal and wind energy and supplement production with imports from Ethiopia. - Integrate electricity grid nationally around energy production plants at Ali Sabieh (wind) and the Goubet sector (geothermal). - Principal electricity distribution route: segment between Ali Sabieh and Djibouti as backbone for other connections, including link with the Ethiopian power grid. - Government actions: - Continue efforts to identify renewable energy sources (geothermal, wind) and greatly expand solar power use in villages in the interior and in rural areas. - Expand rural village electrification projects in cooperation with other departments. - Implement an action plan for controlling energy consumption by State agencies, public establishments, and semipublic entities. - Reduce energy costs for low-income households by introducing social rate structures. - Improve working conditions of EDD personnel and enhance motivation/productivity through introduction of a more attractive pay scale. ### New sources of growth (tourism, mining resources, agriculture, livestock production, fisheries) - Diversification focused on tourism, mining resources, agriculture, livestock production, and fisheries. - Tourism - Strengthen promotion of Djibouti as a destination via Administration-private operator partnership. - Reactivate previously planned priority actions: (i) opening up access to tourism sites and installing adequate infrastructures; (ii) training, especially for women; (iii) financing of tourism projects by the FDED (undergoing restructuring); (iv) promotion of local initiatives and welcoming environment. - Enhance Djiboutians' awareness to welcome tourists; accelerate training program on tourism trades to ensure young Djiboutians are primary beneficiaries. - Establish an aquarium in Djibouti City to attract tourists. - Mining resources - Strategy to promote and develop mining wealth, particularly salt, gypsum, and perlite. - Prospecting underway for possible gold reserves. - Preference for joint ventures with foreign investors. - Agriculture, livestock production, and fisheries - Agricultural plan to strengthen development in areas with known potential such as Hanlé, Gobaad, and Bissidiro, based on integrated management for sustainable water and soil use; government to assist farmers in combating insects and pests. - Fisheries development to provide fishermen with canoes, nets, and means of preserving and marketing fish; ensure proper functioning of fishing boat repair facilities with fishermen involvement. - Livestock measures to develop water points, streamline grazing land use, improve animal health, promote flow of livestock products, and maintain cattle production to avoid disorderly changes in meat prices. - Conduct a study to ensure better marketing of agro-pastoral products and draw up an action plan based on that study. - Study on the impact of climate change on agricultural activities to be conducted with CERD and the ministry responsible for the environment. - Ministry of Agriculture, with Ministries of Education and Health, to participate in creating vegetable gardens near schools and dispensaries in rural areas; availability of water for these gardens should be studied first. ### Promotion of private investment - Focus on advancing prior encouraging performance areas by: - Improving the legal and regulatory framework for business. - Reducing the costs of production factors. - Improving the work environment. - Legal and regulatory improvements to involve: - (i) adoption of a new Commercial Code; - (ii) creation of the International Arbitration Center within the Chamber of Commerce and Industry; - (iii) simplification of enterprise creation procedures. - Reduce high costs of principal factors of production (energy, telecommunications, etc.) by: - (i) cleaning up the financial position of public enterprises with sectoral oversight; - (ii) promoting privatization of the national electricity corporation (EDD), based on specifications that guarantee sector development; - (iii) encouraging alternatives to thermal energy via studies of linkage to the Ethiopian power grid and geothermal development; - (iv) reducing in phases the rates applicable to international telecommunications; - (v) redressing shortcomings in Djibouti-Telecom’s performance. - Develop national private sector through: - (i) improving the match between training and market requirements; - (ii) support for upgrading enterprises in Djibouti; - (iii) tax incentives for hiring; - (iv) continued private sector involvement in management and financing of production-supporting sectors (energy and telecommunications). - Support measures - Conduct awareness and information campaigns on reforms introduced (General Tax Code, VAT, Investment Code, etc.). - Improve processing of administrative procedures at the Ministry of Economy, Finance, and Planning, responsible for Privatization. - Encourage Djiboutian SMEs and SMIs via tax measures that provide incentives for investment and job creation. - Encourage joint ventures between national firms and foreign corporations established in Djibouti. - Revise the Investment Code to raise the threshold for Regime A and broaden its scope to include crafts businesses. - Create a Crafts Village to promote crafts activities. - Promote access to bank financing for households and SMEs/SMIs, facilitate access to banking services for the population, promote microfinance, and develop microcredit. ### Strategic Pillar 2: Promotion of Universal Access to Social Services — Local and human development - Overarching objective: ensure equitable access to (i) quality education aligned with market requirements; (ii) employment, especially for young people; and (iii) essential services (health, water resources, energy, ICTs, etc.) combining quality, availability, and affordability, with a focus on women and youth. ### Health — planned priority interventions - Accelerate reform and establish a new regulatory framework. - Introduce the cost recovery system. - Improve access to primary care in rural areas after prior studies. - Promote healthy lifestyles in urban areas by: - (i) combating the use of hard and current drugs; - (ii) providing access to care with introduction of the health card for basic care; - (iii) prevention; - (iv) covering therapy; - (v) establishing itinerant teams in urban health sectors. - Establish mobile medical evacuation teams, create field medical emergency units (SMURs) in Djibouti City and surrounding areas, and set up: (i) operating theatre units; (ii) means of communication; (iii) arrangements for medical evacuations to other countries. - Combat mental illness. - Expand the Essential Development Needs Program. - Promote education for health via appropriate educational media, integrated multi-sectoral social mobilization, and training of health professionals and community leaders in communications. - Strengthen “Health Promotion” by increasing public awareness campaigns in partnership with civil society (local associations, NGOs, CDCs, etc.). - Introduce free medical care for students upon presentation of a student ID card. - Introduce free care for retired persons. - Revise terms for granting certificates of indigence to avoid frequent renewals obstructing access to care. - Strengthen health control procedures in localities near the border to combat transmissible diseases. - Transform existing health centers in the capital into polyvalent clinics. - Establish infirmaries in rural schools. - Train medical staff on importance of welcoming and showing compassion to the ill. - Build a regional hospital in each administrative center of the regions in the interior. - Train medical personnel in sign language to facilitate communication with the deaf and hard of hearing. ### Education — objectives and priority actions - Objectives: (i) improve access and quality; (ii) reduce disparities; (iii) reduce repeats and dropouts; (iv) improve sector management; (v) strengthen partnership across all education levels (preschool, basic, secondary, higher education and research, informal education and literacy). - Planned priority actions: - Access: - (i) increase accommodation capacities; - (ii) continue double-shift system at the primary level; - (iii) initiate innovative approaches in rural areas; - (iv) strengthen private education. - Equity: - (i) gradual elimination of obstacles to girls’ enrollment, especially beyond primary level; - (ii) involve civil society in awareness efforts; - (iii) combat poverty among parents to enable children’s schooling. - Quality, effectiveness, and relevance: - (i) curriculum reforms; - (ii) provision of school textbooks; - (iii) teacher training and motivation; - (iv) improvement of pedagogical oversight; - (v) evaluation reforms. - Institutional capacities: - (i) strengthen organization, school planning, human resource management; - (ii) deepen decentralization and deconcentration. - Partnership: - Strengthen frameworks for cooperation and partnership as established by the policy orientation law. - Additional measures: - Improve integration of handicapped children with appropriate structures. - Support ‘head start’ activities for children by creating vegetable gardens at rural schools. - Reduce cost of textbooks where borne by parents with more than four children in school. - Perpetuate and improve student food services and lodging in rural areas. - Introduce ‘head start’ programs in rural areas. - Continue democratizing basic education. - Create a Higher Institute of Education as a teacher training institute for colleges and lycées. - Adapt technical, vocational, and university training to job market needs. - Improve access to the New Information and Communications Technologies (NICTs) at all education levels. - Introduce student loans at a reduced rate for purchase of portable computers by students through bank agreements with the state as guarantor of such loans. *Source: _cr12131 - 189. In order to promote trade within the country and reduce the isolation of the Nord* ### 213. In the area of employment promotion, a new thrust is required, given the observation ### _cr12131 - 213. In the area of employment promotion, a new thrust is required, given the observation ### Employment promotion — overarching programs and priorities - Four programs remain relevant despite extremely low levels of implementation of the priority measures included in the first PRSP: - The labor-intensive infrastructure program, to be intensified in light of prospects for massive investments planned in support of growth and the expansion of basic services. - The vocational training and job placement program, with: - (i) formulation and implementation of an employment promotion strategy based on matching training with employment opportunities; - (ii) development of self-employment, through financing to assist with start-ups; - (iii) continuation of the SNA; - (iv) building the capacities of the vocational training centers, in particular the CFPA (organization, adaptation of training programs, modernization of equipment, etc.); - (v) development of partnerships with the private sector. - The small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) development program, with: - (i) establishment of a unit to assist and support private operators; - (ii) promotion of special financing mechanisms (FDED, ADDS); - (iii) tax incentives. - The microfinance development program, with implementation of the microfinance promotion strategy adopted in 2006. ### Institutional strengthening, selection criteria, and placement services - Actions to enhance program effectiveness: - (i) creation of the National Employment, Training, and Job Placement Agency (ANEFIP), a body with administrative and financial autonomy; - (ii) establishment of an efficient system to provide information on employment; - (iii) use of job creation as an essential criterion for selecting public investment programs; - (iv) upgrading of placement services. - Prospect of organizing national consultations on employment to define objectives and priorities, potentially resulting in a National Employment Pact as a framework for partnership and action. ### Short-term operational steps (ANEFIP capacity building and labor market information) - Immediate actions to promote job creation and improve labor market understanding, centered on building operational capacities of ANEFIP: - Improve welcoming the public and providing service to users, in particular for young graduates. - Improve the information service provided to users, reducing file processing time. - Strengthen the human and material resources of ANEFIP. - To improve understanding of the labor market, the government will: - (i) make the employment observatory created within ANEFIP operational; - (ii) update a bulletin on labor market statistics with the support and collaboration of DISED; - (iii) publish monthly or bimonthly information bulletins on the jobs available or to be sought; - (iv) launch a study of the impact of the informal sector on job creation. ### Vocational training, apprenticeships, and inclusion measures - Measures to strengthen vocational training: - (i) refurbish the CFPA premises and impart new dynamism to the training policy; - (ii) enhance the technical and professional qualifications of those emerging from the education system; - (iii) encourage uncompensated internships; - (iv) institute incentive measures to promote apprenticeships. - Additional measures: - Steps to help handicapped children become incorporated into the professional world. - Plans to establish a working party to develop hiring incentives for businesses. - Creation of an insurance plan under the OPS to cover risks for trainees and speed the process of effectively introducing the CNSS. ### Public administration effectiveness and labor law enforcement - Government endeavors to increase administrative effectiveness: - (i) redeploying government employees; - (ii) relaunching the organizational audit; - (iii) initiating consideration of a new policy aimed at obtaining better performance from public administration; - (iv) revitalizing INAP; - (v) introducing new public management methods by providing civil servants with incentives to work more effectively (“performance contracts,” “obligatory results,” etc.). - Ensuring observance of labor law: - (i) training the inspectors and controllers of the relevant administration on professional ethics and morality and on labor law; - (ii) enhancing the resources available to this category of workers to enable better control over work sites and enterprises; - (iii) assigning inspectors to the regions in the interior. ### Inclusion of women — decision-making, health, education, economy, family well-being - Decision-making: - (i) ensure observance of the quota of at least 10 percent women in elective functions and in all sectors and ministerial departments, with reliable statistical data that take account of related gender-specific indicators; - (ii) enhance the role of women in decision-making, including representation in diplomatic positions and in higher state functions; - (iii) build the Ministry’s capacity to advocate in favor of the gender concept; - (iv) train media personnel in communications techniques for legal instruments (such as the Family Code); - (v) enhance stakeholder awareness of gender equality aiming to meet the Millennium Development Goals; - (vi) make all participants in the social sphere aware of the need to eliminate any form of discrimination. - Health: - (i) increase the use and frequenting of health units by women and girls; - (ii) accord national priority to preventing and combating the use of drugs and other harmful substances (khat, chicha, hashish, etc.); - (iii) build communications capacity for encouraging prenatal and postnatal consultations, as well as family planning, with pride of place given to men in supporting the strategy to cease all forms of excision (FGM); - (iv) seek to bring water points closer to residences to ease burdensome tasks performed by women and girls; - (v) re-discuss with social partners the length of maternity leaves, taking account of socio-cultural realities and new health data on the duration and benefits of breastfeeding. - Education: - (i) continue and strengthen advocacy and social mobilization for education, training, and socioeconomic integration of women; - (ii) remove factors preventing schooling of girls, particularly costs for underprivileged classes; - (iii) revitalize the vocational training sector; - (iv) establish literacy programs in French; - (v) take needs of the handicapped into account and promote training and vocational inclusion of women living with disabilities; - (vi) allocate sufficient resources for education projects and programs for girls at formal and non-formal levels; - (vii) increase capacity for accepting students at training centers, in particular the one in Balbala, and build vocational training centers in the regions of the interior; - (viii) train social assistants. - Economy: - (i) pass the draft microfinance law; - (ii) accelerate establishment of a system of savings and microcredit banks in urban and rural areas, in the context of the Microfinance and Microenterprise Development Project (PDMM) and of the FSN; - (iii) facilitate access of rural women to microfinance; - (iv) develop entrepreneurship of women via qualifying training programs and enhancing light trades engaged in by women. - Family well-being: - (i) make couples more accountable regarding duties and obligations within their homes; - (ii) establish a public awareness program to strengthen the family unit; - (iii) set up a working party to monitor child custody and care after parents are divorced; - (iv) create a Women’s Center to provide young mothers training in raising their children in keeping with tradition (lessons on lullabies, storytelling, imparting the mother tongue, etc.). ### Promotion of young people — education, health, employment, decision-making, environment, culture and sports - Education: - (i) promote non-formal education and validate lessons learned on the job and acquired experience; - (ii) set up programs to grant scholarships to young persons with physical handicaps; - (iii) develop vocational training for unskilled young persons (such as the SNA); - (iv) facilitate access to ICTS; - (v) train professional leadership and supervisory personnel to improve care of young people. - Health: - (i) increase number of reproductive health programs for women; - (ii) encourage training of young people regarding STDs/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis through peer training; - (iii) grant food assistance to impoverished youth living with HIV/AIDS; - (iv) enhance youth awareness of dangers of soft drugs (khat, tobacco, etc.) and expand programs to combat tobacco and drug use; - (v) improve availability of condoms at the CDCs and youth centers. - Employment: - (i) encourage self-employment of young people; - (ii) develop vocational training arrangements for young school dropouts; - (iii) establish mechanisms to provide financial support for initiatives of young people (e.g., creation of a fund for the integration of young people); - (iv) develop programs to provide skill enhancement programs for young dropouts and youth with no schooling; - (v) create an enterprise fair for young entrepreneurs; - (vi) create a prize for excellence among young entrepreneurs; - (vii) facilitate recruitment of young people trained at the CDCs; - (viii) accelerate establishment, at the CDCs, of a jobs or professional integration window where young persons from the neighborhood may obtain information and receive orientation and guidance. - Decision-making: - (i) encourage participation of young people, particularly young women, in decision-making; - (ii) include youth representatives in Parliament for passage of legislation on issues relating to young people. - Environment: - (i) foster training and awareness of young people on environmental stakes at CDCs and youth associations; - (ii) encourage CDCs to undertake neighborhood cleanup programs in collaboration with associations. - Culture and sports (selected measures): - (i) organize youth festivals throughout the country; - (ii) make participation in sports mandatory at school; - (iii) organize youth tournaments; - (iv) continue policy on early identification of talented youth and oversight of highly skilled sports participants and foster aspirations to sports academies abroad; - (v) encourage exchanges among young people of various countries in the region; - (vi) build CDCs in each neighborhood and region in the interior and renovate CDCs in poor condition; - (vii) increase competitiveness of Djiboutian athletes; - (viii) draw conclusions from the sports-study school and draw up an action program; - (ix) establish leisure and sports spaces in new housing estates; - (x) create tennis courts for young people; - (xi) promote water sports (sailboarding, swimming, etc.); - (xii) create playgrounds for families. ### Local development, rural development, and environmental preservation — water, sanitation, energy, ICTs, land planning - Access to safe drinking water and sanitation — priorities: - (i) promotion of works to make use of surface water; - (ii) construction of dams where topology permits development of large reserves of surface runoff; - (iii) rehabilitation of boreholes, wells, and existing springs, and improvement of springs; - (iv) conduct of studies on the country’s potential for water resources and establishment of a water and climate network. - Specific project note: - A seawater desalination plant with a maximum capacity of 100,000 cubic meters per day is proposed, to be developed in three phases, under Chinese technical assistance, addressing the specific problem of supplying safe drinking water to Djibouti City. - Water access strategy actions: - Develop a program for comprehensive water supply of rural sites (concrete-reinforced wells, boreholes, reservoirs, supply systems). - Establish a program for mobilizing surface water. - Improve supply of safe drinking water to neighborhoods. - Take due account of extremely low-income households. - ONEAD specific actions: - Remedy problems of water availability, especially in Arta and Dikhil. - Establish a reliable sanitation network in neighborhoods of the capital city. - Rehabilitate dilapidated ONEAD water networks to prevent waste and water losses. - Prioritize supply of water for industries (agro-food industries, processing industries, etc.). - Access to energy and ICTs: - Energy priorities: - (i) setting up utility branches in underprivileged neighborhoods; - (ii) providing access to alternative energy sources suited to the local context; - (iii) promoting the use of clean gas for cooking. - ICTs priorities: - improve quality and reduce costs; - promote emergence of small repair enterprises or units to provide service and create jobs. - Land development and environmental preservation — long-term vision: - Development requires a very long-term prospective and territorial vision (horizon 2030 example), guided by multi-year strategic frameworks such as the PRSP 2004–2006 and the 2008–2012 INDS. - The objective is to adopt a national charter on the prospective and territorial vision of development, draft a national land development plan with regional plans, and formulate a comprehensive infrastructure program covering roads, railways, ports, dams, energy, telecommunications, etc. - Targeted poverty reduction programs will serve the poorest and most vulnerable segments in an integrated approach addressing urban, rural, and environmental manifestations of poverty. - Environmental preservation: - Environmental preservation will be a major INDS priority with an integrated approach covering urban, rural, and mining environments and atmospheric pollution. - Revision of the PANE adopted in 2001 is intended to permit better federation and coordination of efforts. - Specific actions planned in the context of combating harmful effects of climate change and conserving biodiversity. *Source: _cr12131 - 213. In the area of employment promotion, a new thrust is required, given the observation* ### 240. In the short term, it will be necessary to strengthen the coordination of actions between ### 240. In the short term, it will be necessary to strengthen the coordination of actions between ### Environmental coordination and public policy - Strengthen coordination of actions between the state and the stakeholders responsible for managing environmental projects. - The government will take the steps necessary for addressing the environmental aspect of public policies, in particular by conducting environmental impact studies for all major projects. ### Integrated urban development — main objectives and actions - Main objectives for public authorities concerning urban development: - To combat urban poverty, by implementing targeted programs that can address its various manifestations (income, employment, housing, etc.) and use innovative approaches tailored to each context (see Pillar 3). - To restructure desperately poor neighborhoods, by implementing infrastructure programs to facilitate their integration with the urban base. - To redress the imbalances in the country’s urban setting, by gradually upgrading the secondary towns—district capitals first—to make them veritable centers of development, able to absorb a part of the migratory flow toward Djibouti City. - To promote access to decent housing, by amplifying and accelerating the activities of the Housing Fund and the SID. - To clean up urban living conditions and the environment, in particular by implementing programs for the evacuation of used and rain water and for the collection and treatment of solid waste. - To improve the regulatory and organizational framework, by specifically apportioning roles, increasing the involvement of communes and civil society organizations, and building urban planning capacities. - To organize public information campaigns on the various possibilities for access to property ownership. - To ease the conditions for access to ownership on the part of low-income households. - To reduce the transfer and registration fees for sales by mutual agreement. - To reactivate the land ownership commission in order to establish a rational framework for managing land assets. - To study an adequate mechanism to facilitate heirs paying for houses upon the death of parents, in support of low-income young people. - To improve the master plans for land improvement and urban planning in Djibouti City and secondary towns, in particular by establishing a cadastral plan for the country. - To ensure compliance with the regulations in force on the procedure for obtaining building permits. - To facilitate access to administrative buildings by persons with disabilities. ### Rural Development — tasks and priorities - Tasks in rural development: - Reduce the grain shortfall in a lasting way, through the development or arable plots, the control of water, the improvement of yields, the development of special loan facilities, the enlargement of stocking capacity, and support for the marketing of production. - Improve the productivity of livestock breeding, by increasing pastoral wells, vaccination centers, and abattoirs and slaughter areas, and by strengthening the control of hygiene and the surveillance of serious diseases. - Increase the production of artisanal fishing, by supporting the modernization and maintenance of production tools and the acquisition of freezing methods, and providing support for the marketing of products. - Provide better access to basic services, especially through the promotion of innovative approaches that take account of the specific characteristics of the rural areas compared with the general measures falling within Pillar 2 (see also Pillar 3). - Protect natural resources within the framework of an overall vision of environmental preservation, especially by creating protected areas and rehabilitating ecosystems that have deteriorated. ### Strategic Pillar 3: Reduce Social Exclusion, Vulnerability, and Regional Disparities — problems and targets - Key findings on poverty and labor: - Despite a substantial GDP growth rate over the last five years, Djibouti has witnessed a dramatic increase in the poverty of individuals, with the incidence of relative poverty increasing from 45.1 to 74.0 percent, and that of extreme poverty from 9.6 to 42.1 percent. - Djibouti City accounts for 65.2 percent of relative poverty and 57.4 percent of extreme poverty. - Districts 4 and 5 (with 41.8 percent of the total population) account for 51.1 percent of overall extreme poverty and 47.1 percent of relative poverty for individuals; as for household poverty, these two districts account for 41.6 percent of overall poverty and 45.7 percent of extreme poverty. - In rural areas, the incidence of relative poverty could reach close to 95 percent, with more than three of every four rural inhabitants living in extreme poverty. - The four inland districts account for 33.5 percent of overall poverty and 45.1 percent of extreme poverty, with a demographic weight of just 27.1 percent. - The unemployment rate remains very high, with 59 percent of the working population lacking any paid employment. - Government objective: - Reduce poverty and extreme poverty both in urban centers (particularly outlying neighborhoods of the capital city) and in rural areas, targeting Balbala and the old neighborhoods, and the inland regions. ### Poverty reduction pillars and targeted programs - Five main pillars for poverty reduction: - access to basic social services (education, health, water, energy, housing) for the underprivileged - labor-intensive projects conducive to job creation for individuals with limited qualifications - food security - development of the private sector, particularly SME/SMIs - microfinance - Intentions for targeted poverty reduction programs: - Implement targeted, specific, and integrated actions designed to: (i) provide the poor with access to basic social services, (ii) promote income and employment generating activities within their spheres, and (iii) establish social safety nets for the underprivileged. ### Measures to provide the poor with access to basic social services - Specific measures and innovative solutions: - Training for health auxiliaries from poor areas to dispense advice and basic health care, monitor health status, and sound the alarm in the event of a difficult situation. - Implementation of mobile dispensaries to visit these areas at regular intervals. - Adoption of the system of multilevel classes in primary education. - Provision of solar (or wind) power, particularly for pumping water and to permit adult education and school support in the classroom during the evening. - Efforts to promote access to decent housing, built from local materials and relying on village solidarity to supply the labor. ### Promote microfinance and income- and employment-generating activities — rural and urban approaches - Rationale: - Very poor populations possess self-potentiality but lack an environment that provides opportunities to express it; approach calls for differentiated treatment for extreme poverty in rural and urban areas. - Rural measures (agriculture, stock-raising, small-scale fishing): - Support emergence of cooperatives, particularly women’s cooperatives. - Development of lands suitable for cultivation. - Access to water and improved seeds. - Advice on agricultural production. - Assistance in marketing output. - Pilot program to grant small ruminants to the most underprivileged families for subsistence stock-raising. - Development of vaccination yards and water points. - Assistance in marketing livestock products (creation of a stockyard in each region). - Small-scale fishing support: acquiring or rehabilitating pirogues, providing nets, and preserving and marketing the output. - Urban measures: - Provide vocational training in weaving, embroidery, hairdressing, and other urban trades (mason, carpenter, plumber, etc.) with stepped-up involvement of ANEFIP. - Grant microcredit so vocational trainees can obtain tools and finance promising projects. - Support emergence of cooperatives, particularly women’s cooperatives. - Expand social projects to all neighborhoods and into the regions. - Develop infrastructure for the most underprivileged petty traders, especially in PK12, Sans Fil, etc. - Establish ADDS field units in working-class neighborhoods and in the chief towns of inland regions. - Expand electrification projects to encompass renewable energy in inland regions. - Promote a culture of savings through awareness-raising and by setting up banks. - Implement a partnership policy with local banks to facilitate access to credit, particularly for young graduates. - The Caisse Nationale de Développement will be one of the instruments involved in granting credit to young graduates or to SMEs. ### Employment promotion and vocational training - Government will promote employment by: - building the institutional and human resource capacities of ANEFIP; - setting up the Employment and Qualifications Watchdog; - implementing the National Program on Youth Adaptation and Integration (PNIAP); - analyzing the job market in Djibouti; - setting up an information and vocational guidance system for youth; - developing specific computer applications for job market intermediation and managing an information system; - setting up professional retraining programs for employment-seeking graduates of higher education; - developing a support mechanism for microenterprises and independent activities such as Espace Entreprendre; - strengthening the partnership and level of consultation with the private sector. - Government will develop vocational training by: - conducting a study on the national apparatus of vocational training in Djibouti; - conducting a survey on the future of young graduates of vocational training institutions; - bringing the public system of vocational training up to standard; - providing targeted training to youth who have left school, revolving around the needs of the labor market; - strengthening existing training capacities and developing new expertise; - setting up vocational training programs for job seekers who have few qualifications or little education or who come from underprivileged backgrounds. ### Food security — diagnosis and strategy - Key diagnostics on food and nutrition: - Very weak contribution to food supply from national output, but good growth potential. - Major crisis in traditional pastoral systems, heightened by recurrent droughts. - Highly urbanized population, very high unemployment rate, dependency on a limited array of service activities. - Household dependency on the marketplace to obtain food; accessibility is the main food security problem. - Very high dependency on imports from regional and international markets. - Catastrophic nutritional status, particularly among young children. - Consequences and characteristics: - The country’s chronic lack of food security is dominated by the problem of access to food for poor households, whether rural or urban. - Given the extent of income poverty, a very significant proportion of households are struck by hunger and malnutrition. - In rural areas, degradation of natural resources and lack of means of production constrain household food production and marketing. - In urban areas, income poverty, underemployment, and limited opportunities for economic activities drive food difficulties. - Malnutrition rates are very high, comparable to those typically found in war zones, for both moderate and acute malnutrition. - The primary sector contributes under 10 percent to the country’s food supply; the bulk of food is purchased abroad, especially from Ethiopia and the world market. - The proportion of agro-food imports relative to total imports has grown substantially in recent years; rising world commodity prices worsen household hardship. - National strategy objectives and dimensions: - The general objective of the national strategy is based on the widely accepted definition of food security encompassing four dimensions: (a) availability of foods of good quality in terms of health and nutrition; (b) accessibility to all population groups, including the most vulnerable; (c) stability of food supply over time and space; and (d) optimal use of foods by individuals (nutritional dimension). - Urban food security strategy: - Develop worker social safety nets: assistance in cash or food as compensation for household participation in large-scale, labor-intensive public works (cash for work or food for work). - Rely on underemployed and unemployed workers to provide labor for large-scale works; include other supports such as microcredit and vocational training under food-for-training formulas. - Rural food security strategy: - Boost output of farming households to reduce their need to rely on the marketplace for food supply. - Complement by diversifying food production and other income-generating activities to reduce household vulnerability and strengthen endogenous capacity to withstand external shocks. - Successful implementation should make the country less dependent on imports, help stabilize migratory movements, and reduce the flow of resources from the cities to the countryside. *IMF content unit: _cr12131 - 240. In the short term, it will be necessary to strengthen the coordination of actions between* ### 265. To that end, the strategy will be implemented through action plans set up for each ### _cr12131 - 265. To that end, the strategy will be implemented through action plans set up for each ### Implementation through sectoral action plans - Action plans set up for each subsector of the primary sector aimed at: - expanding and stabilizing output, - boosting productivity, - improving competitiveness. - Cross-cutting, geographically organized approaches to: - improve household living conditions, - reduce vulnerability through diversification of activities, - integrate farming, stock-raising, and other rural activities, - promote income-generating activities linked to investment in collective facilities (land and water supply development, roads, construction of schools and health centers). ### Labor-intensive projects and rural purchasing power - Implement labor-intensive projects in rural areas to: - inject purchasing power on a non-welfare basis, - expand investment in public services. ### Multi-level view of food security - Food security dimensions to be examined at three levels: - (i) individuals and households; - (ii) communities and local territories; - (iii) the country as a whole. ### Five strategic goals to address the food crisis - Priority actions revolve around five strategic goals: - Develop agriculture, stock-raising, and fishing; - Increase the income of poor and vulnerable population groups; - Expand access to water and health and nutrition services; - Improve emergency response capacities; - Improve the design and the monitoring and evaluation of targeted poverty and vulnerability reduction programs. ### Development of agriculture, stock-raising, and fishing: objectives and actions - Two major objectives: - reduce the country’s dependency on imports; - stabilize rural populations in their communities. - Envisioned actions include: - development of water impoundment schemes and water saving techniques; - development of farming schemes both in Djibouti and in neighboring countries (Ethiopia, Sudan), better systems of agricultural advice, and improved capacities for storing, preserving, and marketing agricultural products; - implementation of an integrated program including development of pastoral water points, vaccination and medical surveillance of livestock, provision of livestock feed; - the provision of 100 fully equipped pirogues for fishermen, along with vocational training and microcredit. ### Pilot projects and feasibility studies - Pilot areas and feasibility studies to make best use of country potential: - Use of Prosopis and Somalian bay leaf as livestock feed; - Reforestation by replanting rangelands after the rainy season (building on an experiment conducted with the assistance of a Japanese university); - Treatment of livestock manure (in transit on the coastal plain of Loyada) to recover methane and turn it into fuel; - Promotion of oasis farming for cooperatives through cement-lined wells, solar pumps, and composters; - Promotion of poultry farming. ### Boosting incomes of poor and vulnerable groups - Planned actions: - implementation of income-generating activities tailored to each geographical zone; - promotion of a labor-intensive approach to infrastructure development; - implementation of ‘cash for work’ or ‘food for work’ programs for construction of community facilities; - development of microcredit; - a study of appropriate and sustainable mechanisms for cash transfers. - Complementary measures: - reduce school and health service access costs to free up household resources for nutrition. ### Expanding access to water, health, and nutrition services - Proposed actions: - deepen wells and equip them with solar pumps; - provide water quality test kits; - strengthen mobile teams; - make anti-diarrhea kits available; - continue food distribution efforts; - continue the nutrition program, particularly for community nutrition centers and school meal programs. ### Improving emergency response capacities - Actions to improve response: - build up strategic food security reserves; - upgrade storage and distribution capacities; - institute an early warning system; - continue to provide emergency assistance to populations afflicted by drought and price spikes; - adopt rules and regulations governing emergency services organization. - Policy measures in context: - maintain the tax breaks on foodstuffs adopted in 2008 in 2009; - strengthen market surveillance and price and re-export controls. ### Improving design, monitoring, and evaluation of targeted programs - Need for better data on demographics, income poverty, and household living conditions via an information system to be developed in stages: - Completion of the General Census of Population and Housing (RGPH) (June-October 2009); - Completion of the EDAM-3 Household Survey, right after RGPH; - Development of a new poverty profile based on the results of EDAM-3 (2010); - Updating of the poverty map (2010). ### Agricultural operations and anti-speculation measures - Strengthen operations on farms in Ethiopia and Sudan set up for combating food insecurity. - Proliferation of date palm plantations (from seedlings produced in vitro by the CERD laboratory) to reduce nutritional deficiency. - Ministries of Finance and Commerce to step up controls over traders’ prices to fight speculation despite elimination of taxes on these products. ### Social safety nets for the most underprivileged - Target groups: street children, displaced persons, and nomadic groups. - Street children priorities: - (i) children’s legal protection; - (ii) implementation of a social protection program covering housing, access to health care and education, and social and psychological assistance; - (iii) training and support for integration of working-age children. - Nomadic groups strategy: - (i) pastoral water supply and animal health programs; - (ii) creation of forage schemes; - (iii) food assistance; - (iv) access to basic infrastructure (education, health care, safe drinking water, solar and wind power) as part of a policy of semi-sedentation. - Displaced persons focus: - (i) food assistance; - (ii) access to basic social services (education, health care, safe drinking water); - (iii) finding a definitive solution to displacement. ### Institutional arrangements and social development agency - Creation of the Djibouti Social Development Agency (ADDS), from merger of ADETIP and FSD, completed before the end of 2007, as a first step to ensure sustained, well-targeted interventions (examples: Microcredit Project, Wahlé-Daba Project, Quartier 7 Project). ### Private sector development measures - Government commitment to establish a legal, institutional, and macroeconomic framework favorable to the private sector, including privatization of public enterprises. - Prior measures already taken: - economic framework law (1990-2000 and 2001-2010); - investment codes (1994); - laws on businesses in free trade zones (1994); - laws on trading companies (1994); - laws on export processing zones (1994); - membership in the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) (2007); - new labor laws (2005). - Further measures to encourage private sector development: - Harmonize and publicize business laws; adopt a new commercial law, law on competition, and law on industrial development; - Publicize recourse to arbitration to alleviate courts’ backlog in business disputes; - Formulate incentives for SMEs to coexist with large businesses; - Accelerate processing of business disputes lodged with the court system; - Improve quality and availability of commercial statistics and connect commercial information services into a network (MCI, ANPI, CCD, DISED, BCD); - Make the one-stop service for creating a business fully operational; - Facilitate private sector financing through the Djibouti Economic Development Fund, with priority financing for projects in: (i) agro-pastoralism, (ii) production, distribution, and marketing, (iii) service provision, and (iv) small and medium processing industries; - Develop the energy sector: build a new thermal power plant in Doraleh, implement electric interconnection project with Ethiopia, develop geothermal energy (installation of a plant at Lac Assal); - Promote private sector development in growth sectors such as salt, perlite, fisheries (aquaculture), stock-raising, and tourism. ### Social protection and protection of vulnerable population groups - Institutional rehabilitation via merger of the National Retirement Fund (CNR) and the Social Protection Organization (OPS) into the National Social Security Fund (CNSS). - Undertake innovative actions for vulnerable strata: the elderly, women, abandoned children, the disabled, beggars, and others excluded from growth’s benefits. ### Disaster prevention and management - Two main planned actions: - (i) technical and political validation followed by implementation of the National Food Security Strategy; - (ii) updating and financing of the ORSEC emergency management plan. ### Strategic Pillar 4 — Good governance: principles and objectives - Action plan based on principles: accountability, transparency, professional conduct rules, broad stakeholder participation (political parties, trade unions, local government, civil society, private sector, citizens), integration and streamlining of public institutions, and continuous monitoring and evaluation. - Interventions to: - (i) consolidate democratic experience; - (ii) pursue judicial reform; - (iii) modernize public administration; - (iv) manage public property more effectively; - (v) step up decentralization; - (vi) systematize participation and communication; - (vii) institute an effective monitoring and evaluation system. ### Consolidation of democratic institutions and human rights - Electoral system revision for legislative elections to permit greater presence of deputies from the republican opposition in the National Assembly. - Strengthen role and capacities (human and material) of the National Assembly, Constitutional Council, and the Mediator of the Republic. - Advance and defend human rights, especially for women and children, through: - (i) awareness-raising campaigns for judges, government services, and the general public; - (ii) ratification of unratified international conventions; - (iii) capacity-building at the responsible ministry. ### Djibouti’s Membership in APRM - Djibouti joined the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) following AU Summit in Accra, Ghana. - APRM objectives: - promote good governance and democracy to create conditions for sustainable development; - permit adoption of laws, policies, standards, and practices for political stability, strong economic growth, sustainable development, and accelerated economic integration. - Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation (MAECI) is the APRM focal point and has begun awareness-raising and conceptualization activities (including an awareness workshop co-organized with CEA and UNDP in December 2008). - Institutionalization led to adoption of a decree on August 30, 2009 to prepare for the process; two regional awareness-raising workshops are being prepared. ### Administrative, economic, and financial governance reforms - Modernize public administration to improve quality of public services via: - institutional reform (reorganize services, revise statutes, clarify missions, avoid redundancy); - more effective human resources management (establish career paths, impartial rating system, productivity incentives, a single database of civil servants, and in-service training). - Management of public property: aim for greater efficiency and transparency in programming, implementation, and oversight. - Strengthen programming through: - preparation of a Medium-Term Budget Framework (MTBF) and a Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) for key sectors (education, health care, water supply, energy, transport, etc.); these tools to provide medium-term visibility and form the basis of budget laws, updated annually. - Revise government procurement code to ensure greater fairness and strengthen capacities of the National Procurement Commission. - Systematize accountability in the use of public moneys with no exceptions and strengthen oversight bodies (Inspector General of State, Audit and Budget Discipline Office, and Inspector of Finance). ### Coordination and effectiveness of assistance - Commitment to align official development assistance with partner country strategies and improve partner country systems (Monterrey, Paris, and Rome processes referenced). - Republic of Djibouti signed the Paris Declaration in April 2008. *Source: _cr12131 (excerpts as provided).* ### 299. The Government of Djibouti, in exercising the responsibility of implementing the ### _cr12131 - 299. The Government of Djibouti, in exercising the responsibility of implementing the ### Coordination of development assistance - Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and Ministry of Finance agreed, through the project, to coordinate assistance in partnership with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). - Objective: make development assistance more effective and facilitate harmonization and coordination of development assistance programs and projects. - An action plan to make assistance more effective is now being prepared. ### Judicial governance - Requisite reform of legal and judicial frameworks entails: - (i) building the capacities of the Ministry of Justice and training the various actors in the judicial system, - (ii) harmonizing and updating the various statutes to adapt them to modern requirements, - (iii) improving legal and judicial security. ### Local governance and decentralization - Priority: transfer greater powers and more human and financial resources to local governments to make them genuine participants in local development and to support the National Initiative for Social Development (INDS). - Priority actions include: - (i) establish a National Commission on Decentralization, - (ii) build the capacities of local governments, - (iii) establish civil servant status at the local government level, - (iv) strengthen, if necessary, the presence and quality of deconcentrated services of government agencies and public institutions. ### Participation, communication, and civil society - Systematizing participation and communication addresses: - (i) the imperative of governance: the right to participate in and be informed about public affairs, - (ii) the imperative of effectiveness: program and project ownership for lasting impact on living conditions. - Participatory approach to be adopted at all levels (elected officials, government officials, civil society, private sector, development partners) across the INDS process (formulation, implementation, monitoring, evaluation). - Citizen oversight of government action will be introduced. - An integrated communication strategy will use all media (press, audiovisual, etc.) to keep citizens informed of INDS progress. - Capacities of civil society organizations will be strengthened to enable their full role in public policy dialogue and implementation of development and poverty reduction programs and projects. ### Macroeconomic framework (medium-term objectives) - Medium-term economic policy seeks to: - (a) raise the real GDP annual growth rate to about 7 percent, - (b) control the inflation rate and bring it down to a level close to 3 or 3.5 percent, - (c) support the integrity and credibility of the bank of issue by maintaining a coverage rate of at least 105 percent. - BCD gross foreign currency holdings projected to reach the equivalent of 1.9 months of imports of goods and services by the end of 2011. - Medium-term budgetary and structural framework seeks to balance the overall budget over the period 2008-2011 and enhance competitiveness. - Planned fiscal and structural measures include: - (i) implement a general reform of the tax system to increase tax revenue by about 1.8 percent of GDP between 2008 and 2011 and align with COMESA and WTO commitments, - (ii) strengthen the tax department, - (iii) contain nominal wage increases (except merit-based raises) and freeze public sector hiring (except in social sectors) to reduce the wage bill from 12.4 percent in 2007 to 10.3 percent in 2011, - (iv) adopt spending controls on goods and services, - (v) contain contingent liabilities of public enterprises operating at a deficit (especially EDD) by improving competitiveness and reducing operating costs, - (vi) improve communication concerning government finance via prompt dissemination of budget data. - Government intends to request technical assistance from development partners at the round table scheduled for March 2010 in Dubai. - Other structural measures: strengthen statistical framework, improve business climate, strengthen governance and the labor market, and implement PESF recommendations to enhance BCD supervision and monetary management. ### Key projected and estimated macroeconomic indicators (2007–2014) — selected figures preserved exactly - Real GDP (annual % change): 5.1 5.8 5.0 4.5 5.4 6.3 6.7 7.0 - Consumer price (annual average): 5.0 12.0 2.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 3.0 - Total investments in fixed capital: 43.0 46.7 39.9 34.7 35.7 37.2 38.1 39.1 - Private: 31.0 32.9 26.2 21.8 23.5 25.6 26.9 28.5 - Public: 12.0 13.8 13.7 12.8 12.2 11.7 11.2 10.6 - Savings/investment balance: 17.3 7.5 20.0 21.5 17.5 18.5 16.5 15.8 - Total revenue and grants 1/: 35.2 41.9 36.2 37.3 35.5 34.9 34.0 33.1 - Tax revenue: 20.5 20.0 19.6 20.5 21.2 21.6 21.7 21.8 - Net expenditures and loans: 37.7 40.6 37.3 37.1 35.2 34.1 33.0 31.7 - Current expenditures: 25.8 26.8 23.6 24.2 23.0 22.4 21.8 21.2 - Capital expenditures: 12.0 13.8 13.7 12.8 12.2 11.7 11.2 10.6 - Balance (based on orders to pay) 1/: -2.6 1.3 -1.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.3 - Domestic financing: -0.2 -0.6 -3.1 -1.2 -1.1 -1.7 -2.5 -3.0 - External financing: 3.3 2.6 5.5 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.4 - Change in arrears (decrease -): -0.6 -3.2 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 - Net external holdings: 4.0 23.1 15.2 7.7 8.5 7.9 9.2 10.4 - Net domestic holdings: 41.4 10.0 4.8 16.2 15.5 17.9 10.6 10.5 - Debt on private sector: 23.1 27.3 19.0 20.3 20.1 17.9 17.7 18.4 - Broad money: 9.6 20.6 13.4 9.1 9.7 9.7 9.4 10.4 - Exports of goods and services: 323 390 485 637 749 841 894 1022 - Imports of goods and services: -601 -836 -736 -828 -1,030 -1,167 -1,300 -1,485 - Current account balance (% of GDP): -25.7 -39.2 -19.9 -13.2 -18.2 -18.8 -21.7 -23.2 - Direct foreign investment (% of GDP): 23.0 23.8 18.0 15.5 17.1 15.6 15.4 15.0 - External public debt stock secured by the Government: 63.6 60.2 63.2 59.9 57.2 60.4 67.3 66.8 - Gross official reserves 2/: 130 174 265 297 338 379 435 512 - (months of imports of goods and services) 1.9 2.8 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 ... - Nominal GDP (DF millions): 150,693 174,617 186,969 204,219 223,884 246,361 270,759 298,515 - Coverage rate of the bank of issue (%) 3/: 116.3 120.9 137.4 142.0 145.0 145.0 147.0 147.9 Notes included in table: - 1/ For 2009, includes public enterprise loans and subsidies. - 2/ In 2009, appropriation of SDR 14 million. - 3/ Gross foreign assets of CDB as a percentage of monetary commitments (reserve currency and government deposits at CDB). ### Central government budgetary transactions (selected 2008–2010 figures, DF millions) - Revenues and grants 1/: 73,092 (2008 annual) and quarterly/estimates breakdowns shown; overall annual projections include 69,763, 67,677, 71,950, 76,150 in various estimates. - Tax revenue (annual items shown): 35,005; direct taxes 2/: 15,673; indirect and other taxes: 19,331. - Nonfiscal domestic revenues: 4,618. - Nonfiscal external revenues 3/: 10,631. - Grants 1/: 22,838. - Investment: 13,105. - Budget support: 9,733. - Total expenditures (annual and quarter/estimate breakdowns): 70,903 (2008 annual) with finer quarterly detail; projected totals include 69,812, 75,607, 75,696 in various estimates. - Current expenditures: 46,738. - Wages and other expenditures: 22,176. - Goods and services: 16,467. - Military expenditures 4/: 4,424. - Transfers 5/: 5,503. - Interest: 558. - Externally financed current expenditures: 1,374. - Capital expenditures: 24,164. - Financed domestically: 5,709. - Financed externally 1/: 18,455. - Grants: 13,105. - Loans: 5,350. - Overall balance (based on orders to pay, grants included)1/: 2,189 (2008) and quarterly/estimate negative balances in other periods such as -5,985, -8,156, -8,956, -3,445, -2,135, -3,657, 454. - Overall balance (based on orders to pay, grants excluded): -20,649 -9,096 -13,828 -16,987 -17,765 -12,770 -15,657 -14,285 - Changes in arrears (cash payments = -): -5,657 -400 -735 -473 -2,500 -2,500 -2,200 -2,200 - Domestic arrears: -5,560 -400 -699 -482 -2,500 -2,500 -2,200 -2,200 - External arrears (interest): -970 -49 -460 -500 0 - Overall balance (cash basis): -3,468 -6,385 -8,892 -9,429 -5,945 -4,635 -5,857 -1,746 - Financing totals and composition (selected): Financing 3,360 6,385 8,887 8,562 5,945 4,635 5,857 1,746 - Domestic financing (net): -1,103 2,935 780 653 -2,133 -5,740 -2,337 -2,514 - Bank financing: -1,007 2,983 828 749 -2,037 -5,644 -2,241 -2,418 - Central Bank: -1,267 2,983 1,022 428 -1,912 -6,367 -2,241 -1,918 - Commercial banks: 260 0 -194 321 -125 723 0 -500 - Nonbank financing: -96 -48 -48 -96 -96 -96 -96 -96 - External financing (net): 4,463 3,450 8,107 7,909 8,078 10,375 8,194 4,260 - Disbursements: 5,616 5,067 8,035 8,758 10,134 11,597 10,448 6,567 - Amortization payments: -1,153 -1,617 -615 -849 -2,056 -1,222 -2,254 -2,307 - Residual deficit/funding gap: 1080 -5 -867 000 0 Selected fiscal indicators and notes: - Social current expenditures: 16,058 ... 1,860 2,727 20,511 3,636 22,241 6,103 - Basic fiscal balance 6/: -10,451 -2,181 -3,409 -6,732 -5,740 -2,762 -4,460 -7,017 - Domestic revenues: 39,623 22,687 19,589 30,498 44,882 45,807 49,316 50,135 - Domestically financed expenditures: 50,073 24,868 22,998 37,230 50,621 48,569 53,776 57,152 Notes included in table: - 1/ For 2009, includes public enterprise loans and subsidies. - 2/ Including € 7.5 million in ITS, the tax on individuals, French servicemen, as per leasing arrangement. - 3/ Annual leasing fees from the French (€ 30 million) and the Americans (US $30 million) for military bases, which include TIC payments for French soldiers. - 4/ In 2008 and 2010, includes € 5 million (out of a total of € 30 million) from foreigners for financing French servicemen current expenditures as per leasing arrangement. - 5/ Does not include housing subsidies. - 6/ Defined as domestic revenues minus expenditures financed by domestic sources. ### INDS macroeconomic and budget framework, 2008–2012 (selected figures preserved exactly) - Nominal GDP (DF millions): 151,033 (2007); 171,271 (2008); 192,509 (2009); 214,263 (2010); 238,046 (2011); 263,517 (2012) - Nominal GDP per capita (US dollars): 1,020 (2007); 1,124 (2008); 1,234 (2009); 1,346 (2010); 1,465 (2011); 1,585 (2012) - Real GDP per capita (annual % change): 2.7% (2007); 3.9% (2008); 4.6% (2009); 4.7% (2010); 6.7% (2011); 5.0% (2012) - Real GDP (annual % change): 5.3% (2007); 5.9% (2008); 6.9% (2009); 7.3% (2010); 7.9% (2011); 7.7% (2012) - Consumer price (annual average): 5.0% (2007); 6.6% (2008); 5.5% (2009); 4.3% (2010); 3.5% (2011); 3.0% (2012) - Total investments in fixed capital (as % of GDP): 42.1% (2007); 43.8% (2008); 45.4% (2009); 39.5% (2010); 38.1% (2011); 34.0% (2012) - Private: 30.9% 30.6% 30.3% 27.5% 28.2% 24.8% - Public: 11.2% 13.2% 15.1% 11.9% 9.9% 9.2% - Gross national savings: 17.3% 14.7% 15.5% 16.2% 20.5% 20.7% - Savings/investment balance: -24.8% -29.1% -29.9% -23.2% -17.6% -13.3% ### Nominal GDP by sector (DF millions) — selected sectors and values - Primary: 4,821 (2007) 5,467 (2008) 6,145 (2009) 6,840 (2010) 7,599 (2011) 8,412 (2012) - Industry: 3,725 4,224 4,748 5,284 5,871 6,499 - Construction and public works: 10,996 12,469 14,016 15,599 17,331 19,185 - Water and energy: 7,735 8,771 9,859 10,973 12,191 13,495 - Trade and tourism: 25,419 28,825 32,399 36,060 40,063 44,350 - Transport and telecommunications: 35,602 40,373 45,379 50,507 56,114 62,118 - Banks and insurance: 17,796 20,180 22,683 25,246 28,048 31,049 - Nonmarket services: 25,356 28,754 32,319 35,971 39,964 44,240 - Other market services: 2,502 2,837 3,189 3,549 3,943 4,365 ### State master budget — revenue and expenditure breakdown (selected DF millions) - Grants subtotal: 7,469 (2007) 9,377 (2008) 20,662 (2009) 16,625 (2010) 15,356 (2011) 14,190 (2012) - Percentage of tax revenue: 20.5% 18.4% 18.6% 19.1% 20.2% 21.2% - Tax revenue: 30,962 31,514 35,807 40,924 48,085 55,866 - Domestic nontax revenue: 3,633 4,425 4,841 3,629 4,015 4,743 - Nontax revenue of foreign origin: 10,999 11,305 11,331 11,376 11,437 11,502 - Revenue and grants subtotal: 53,063 56,621 72,641 72,554 78,893 86,301 - Other resources subtotal: 3,883 3,113 2,877 1,370 589 210 - Revenue, grants, borrowing grand total: 56,946 59,734 75,518 73,924 79,482 86,511 - Expenditures grand total: 57,271 60,594 76,951 74,710 80,768 87,071 Breakdown of total expenditures (DF millions): - Title 1: Public debt retirement + interest: 706 720 818 918 1,864 - Title 2: Staff: 18,747 19,852 20,633 21,488 22,958 24,046 - Title 3: Operations (materials + maintenance): 11,585 11,396 13,695 13,790 16,896 19,380 - Title 4a: Transfers: 5,754 5,261 7,127 8,169 11,356 12,890 - Title 4b: Housing assistance: 2,054 2,272 2,156 2,179 2,201 2,245 - Title 5: Direct public investment: 19,131 21,107 32,620 28,266 26,439 26,646 Breakdown of capital expenditures at the macroeconomic level (DF millions): - Title 5-1: Using domestic resources (own funds): 4,790 5,202 4,654 5,226 6,392 7 ,418 - Title 5-2: National counterpart project funds: 570 665 846 774 608 582 - Title 5-3: Using grants: 6,268 6,238 14,997 11,878 10,725 10,567 - Title 5-4: Using loans: 5,231 6,647 8,458 7,741 6,083 5,818 - Title 5-5: Development program using external financing: 2,272 2,355 3,665 2,647 2,631 2,261 Government as a whole (selected totals): - Staff: 18,747 19,852 20,633 21,488 22,958 24,046 - Operations: 11,585 11,396 13,695 13,790 16,896 19,380 - Total investment: 26,939 28,640 41,903 38,614 39,996 41,781 *Source: Djibouti authorities and IMF estimates and projections (excerpts from the provided content).* ### 308. By comparing the summary table of global INDS needs (Point 3-5-1; 3-5-2: pages... ) ### _cr12131 - 308. By comparing the summary table of global INDS needs (Point 3-5-1; 3-5-2: pages... ) ### Calculation of gross and net INDS funding needs - The gross funding needs of the Government’s development strategy are calculated by comparing the summary table of global INDS needs (Point 3-5-1; 3-5-2) and the Investment column in the table above. - Resources already mobilized by the Government as presented in the Public Investment Program (PIP) are deducted from gross funding needs to determine net funding that still needs mobilization to meet the full financial requirements of the INDS strategy. - The series of tables indicate net funding needs at the global level and broken down by strategic and thematic pillar. A further breakdown by project and action of the Matrix of Priority Actions is available. ### Global summary and key statistics (period 2008-2012) - Total INDS funding needs: approximately DF 294.6 billion, i.e. US$1.65 billion. - Domestic investment efforts pledged by the Government excluding operating expenses represent 12 percent of total needs. - The international community, through the Public Investment Program, has agreed to cover 44 percent of the needs. - The funding gap (net funding needs) of the INDS amounts to 44 percent of total needs, i.e. approximately DF 130.9 billion or US$736 million. - INDS alignment with MDGs: - MDG cost estimates: US$1.118 billion over 2008-2015 and US$686.4 million over 2008-2012 (the INDS period). - Projected investments related to MDGs over the INDS period represent 42 percent of total INDS investments. - Pillar shares of total investment needs: - Strategic Pillar-2, Promotion of Access to Social Services: 51.43 percent of total investment needs. - Strategic Pillar-1, Growth, Macroeconomic Stabilization, and Competitiveness: 34.9 percent of total investment needs. - Strategic Pillar-3, Reducing Extreme Poverty, Exclusion, and Inequality: approximately DF 26 billion, i.e. US$147 million, equivalent to 8.91 percent of total needs. - Good governance earmark: 4.76 percent (roughly DF 14 billion). ### Global funding table headline figures (DF thousands) - INDS GRAND TOTAL (GROSS): 294,630,638 - Secured financing: 35,262,305 (Gov. DJ) and 128,496,334 (Donors); Total secured 163,758,640 - Funds to be mobilized / Funding sought: 130,871,998 - % obtained - TFPs: 43.6% - % obtained - Govt.: 12% - Percent funding sought: 44.4% ### Strategic pillar headline totals (DF thousands) - PILLAR 1: GROWTH, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY AND COMPETITIVENESS - Total needs: 102,825,783 - Secured financing: Gov. DJ 13,204,153; Donors 62,261,690; Total secured 75,465,843 - Funds to be mobilized: 27,359,939 - % obtained - TFPs: 60.6% - % obtained - Govt.: 12.8% - Funding sought: 26.6% - PILLAR 2: PROMOTING ACCESS TO BASIC SOCIAL SERVICES - Total needs: 151,536,799 - Secured financing: Gov. DJ 13,357,270; Donors 56,071,099; Total secured 69,428,370 - Funds to be mobilized: 82,108,429 - % obtained - TFPs: 37% - % obtained - Govt.: 8.8% - Funding sought: 54.2% - PILLAR 3: REDUCING EXTREME POVERTY AND EXCLUSION - Total needs: 26,254,947 - Secured financing: Gov. DJ 5,000,000; Donors 7,642,931; Total secured 12,642,931 - Funds to be mobilized: 13,612,016 - % obtained - TFPs: 29.1% - % obtained - Govt.: 19% - Funding sought: 51.8% - PILLAR 4: GOVERNANCE (ECONOMIC, ADMINISTRATIVE, AND LOCAL GOVERNANCE) - Total needs: 14,013,110 - Secured financing: Gov. DJ 3,700,882; Donors 2,520,614; Total secured 6,221,496 - Funds to be mobilized: 7,791,613 - % obtained - TFPs: 18.0% - % obtained - Govt.: 26.4% - Funding sought: 55.6% ### Selected detailed subpillar figures (DF thousands) - PILLAR 1 subcomponents (examples) - Macroeconomic framework and structural reforms: Total needs 8,795,580; Secured Gov. DJ 1,275,072; Donors 6,016,239; Total secured 7,291,311; Funds to be mobilized 1,504,269; % obtained - TFPs 68.4%; % obtained - Govt. 14.5%; Funding sought 17.1% - Energy and natural resources: Total needs 47,445,160; Secured Gov. DJ 8,018,351; Donors 26,122,060; Total secured 34,140,412; Funds to be mobilized 13,304,749; % obtained - TFPs 55.1%; % obtained - Govt. 16.90%; Funding sought 28.0% - Highways and minor roads: Total needs 23,171,625; Secured Gov. DJ 1,367,883; Donors 15,571,625; Total secured 16,939,508; Funds to be mobilized 6,232,117; % obtained - TFPs 67.2%; % obtained - Govt. 5.9%; Funding sought 26.9% - PILLAR 2 subpillars (examples) - SUBPILLAR 2-1: Development of Human Capital — Total needs 57,704,852; Secured Gov. DJ 6,280,446; Donors 27,332,958; Total secured 33,613,404; Funds to be mobilized 24,091,448; % obtained - TFPs 47.4%; % obtained - Govt. 10.9%; Funding sought 41.7% - Health: Total needs 28,241,518; Secured Gov. DJ 2,887,297; Donors 13,172,136; Total secured 16,059,433; Funds to be mobilized 12,182,085; % obtained - TFPs 46.6%; % obtained - Govt. 10.2%; Funding sought 43.1% - Education and literacy: Total needs 17,928,145; Secured Gov. DJ 2,610,361; Donors 12,878,186; Total secured 15,488,547; Funds to be mobilized 2,439,598; % obtained - TFPs 71.8%; % obtained - Govt. 14.6%; Funding sought 13.6% - SUBPILLAR 2-2: Urban, Local, and Rural Development and the Environment — Total needs 93,831,947; Secured Gov. DJ 7,076,825; Donors 28,738,141; Total secured 35,814,965; Funds to be mobilized 58,016,981; % obtained - TFPs 30.6%; % obtained - Govt. 7.5%; Funding sought 61.8% - Water and sanitation: Total needs 26,159,120; Secured Gov. DJ 1,684,928; Donors 9,152,000; Total secured 10,836,928; Funds to be mobilized 15,322,192; % obtained - TFPs 35.0%; % obtained - Govt. 6.4%; Funding sought 58.6% - Urban and habitat development: Total needs 40,357,228; Secured Gov. DJ 2,562,755; Donors 15,596,599; Total secured 18,159,353; Funds to be mobilized 22,197,875; % obtained - TFPs 38.6%; % obtained - Govt. 6.4%; Funding sought 55.0% - PILLAR 3 subcomponents (examples) - Combating urban poverty and social exclusion: Total needs 12,004,860; Secured Gov. DJ 1,250,000; Donors 5,418,082; Total secured 6,668,082; Funds to be mobilized 5,336,778; % obtained - TFPs 45.1%; % obtained - Govt. 10.4%; Funding sought 44.5% - Combating rural poverty and social exclusion: Total needs 7,858,469; Secured Gov. DJ 1,250,000; Donors 967,000; Total secured 2,217,000; Funds to be mobilized 5,641,469; % obtained - TFPs 12.3%; % obtained - Govt. 15.9%; Funding sought 71.8% - PILLAR 4 subcomponents (examples) - National statistical system: Total needs 4,115,104; Secured Gov. DJ 300,000; Donors 348,000; Total secured 648,000; Funds to be mobilized 3,467,104; % obtained - TFPs 8.5%; % obtained - Govt. 7.3%; Funding sought 84.3% - Local governance: Total needs 3,125,100; Secured Gov. DJ 432,500; Donors 328,700; Total secured 761,200; Funds to be mobilized 2,363,900; % obtained - TFPs 10.5%; % obtained - Govt. 13.8%; Funding sought 75.6% ### Debt, aid classification, and appeals for grant financing - Djibouti’s external public debt stood at roughly 58 percent of GDP in 2008 and was trending upward. - Rising debt service requirements divert scarce domestic resources to debt retirement, jeopardizing achievement of the MDGs. - Since 2007, the World Bank and the African Development Bank have classified Djibouti among countries eligible for grants only, which will improve its debt position and support investments for the INDS and the MDGs. - The Government appeals to the international community and multilateral donors to take Djibouti’s circumstances into account and, if necessary, review the country’s debt portfolio with a view to structural transformation. - The Government calls upon Technical and Financial Partners to make their contributions to INDS funding solely in the form of grants. ### INDS implementation framework and institutional arrangements - Implementation relies on: planned macroeconomic policies and actions, structural reforms, Government capital expenditures, sectoral projects and programs financed domestically or by TFPs, investments by the local private sector, direct foreign investments, and actions of NGOs and civil society. - An INDS Technical Steering Committee, in collaboration with development partners, has instituted a mechanism for operational coordination and harmonization of interventions. - Two implementation levels: - Strategic level (policy formulation and updating): entities include (i) the inter-ministerial steering committee, chaired by the Prime Minister; (ii) the National Technical Steering Committee, chaired by the Secretariat of State for National Solidarity and including representatives of technical ministries, civil society, local governments, the private sector, and trade unions; and (iii) regional steering committees, chaired by Chiefs of Regions. - Operational level (deployment and execution): responsibility falls on three operational and thematic commissions upstream, with downstream involvement of local stakeholders and representatives of target groups. ### Guiding principles for implementation - The INDS implementation is governed by: proximity, farming out, transparency, participation, fairness, promptness, subsidiarity, complementarity and synergy, program approach, national execution, results-oriented management, and harmonization and coordination. - Selected principle definitions and operational implications: - Proximity: decision-making should be as close as possible to beneficiaries to ensure optimal targeting. - Farming out: implementation involves local communities, civil society, and the private sector, not only official administrative bodies. - Transparency: mechanisms for visibility and oversight at all levels to balance accountability and autonomy. - Participation: beneficiaries should be involved in decisions affecting them. - Fairness: guarantee equal rights and responsibilities while accounting for gender, social, regional, and local specificities. - Promptness: adopt procedures to ensure speed and transparency in disbursements, procurement, and contract execution. - Subsidiarity: assign responsibilities across administrative levels based on comparative advantages. - Complementarity and synergy / Program approach: avoid unwarranted fragmentation; favor broad programs with autonomous components to maximize impact and efficiency. - National execution: promoted as the preferred approach, while allowing international expertise when justified. - Results-oriented management: introduce Logical Frameworks for each project or program, indicating objectives, expected results, activities, indicators, roles, and funding requirements. - Harmonization and coordination: implement mechanisms to ensure compliance with Paris Declaration principles. ### Implementation instruments and procedures - Sectoral and multi-sectoral programs are the principal instruments for implementing the INDS; they will detail objectives, activities, areas of intervention, schedules, and expected results. - Sectoral Medium-Term Expenditure Frameworks (MTEFs) will provide programming and budget execution frameworks; after a test phase in education, health, and environment, the Government will expand the MTEF approach to other sectors by 2011. - Until MTEFs are generalized, Sectoral Operations Plans (POSs) and Regional Operations Plans (PORs) will provide operational programming frameworks for ministries and regions. *Source: _cr12131 - 308. By comparing the summary table of global INDS needs (Point 3-5-1; 3-5-2: pages... )* ### 323. INDS implementation will conform to the procedures laid out in the various financing ### _cr12131 - 323. INDS implementation will conform to the procedures laid out in the various financing ### Implementation procedures and harmonization - INDS implementation will conform to the procedures laid out in the various financing agreements governing the strategy’s projects and programs. - Until national procedures are harmonized, a gradual simplification of procedures will be undertaken to promote growth in the absorptive capacities of the Djibouti economy. - A capacity-building program is planned for all government entities and officials on the implementation of results-oriented management. - Harmonization and simplification of partners’ procedures will be a regular matter of discussion for the implementation commissions. ### Coordination and Harmonization of INDS Interventions - Government intends to coordinate and harmonize INDS implementation through: - (i) the INDS-MDG Technical Steering Committee, - (ii) a Technical Coordination Unit, - (iii) three commissions charged with harmonizing operations, - (iv) a judicious breakdown of the matrix of priority actions among the commissions, - (v) a legal framework for the commissions’ interventions. - Coordination and Harmonization Commissions: - Purpose: give substance to the Government-Donor Consultation Committee and ensure dynamic implementation and visibility of the Paris Declaration principles. - Designation of Commissions: - Economic and Social Development Commission - Human Capital Commission - Governance Commission - Commission Objectives: - (i) Basic objective: Lead discussions, coordinate interventions, and promote dynamic implementation of INDS themes falling under their respective expertise, through pilot and federative projects and programs. - (ii) Specific objectives and expected results: - Contribute to effective implementation of projects and programs contained in the strategic pillars of INDS falling under their thematic expertise and points of entry. - Contribute to improved coordination of field activities. - Enhance visibility of coordination via communication and advocacy on behalf of the INDS. - Help strengthen the platform of cooperation, in particular through agendas supported by specific memorandums. - Support the resource mobilization process for the INDS Matrix of Priority Actions and achievement of the MDGs in Djibouti, by strengthening mechanisms of coordination, monitoring and evaluation, and communication and advocacy. - (iii) Expected results: - A visible impact from INDS projects and programs, particularly with respect to poverty reduction and targeted thematic areas. - Better coordinated, and therefore more effective, TFP interventions on behalf of poor and vulnerable population groups. - A well-developed, validated, and available strategy of communication, advocacy, and resource mobilization. - Mobilization of the additional financial resources required for the INDS and the MDGs. ### INDS and MDG Monitoring and Evaluation: rationale and objectives - Historical lesson: PRSP first generation suffered from weak monitoring and evaluation systems; Djibouti’s first PRSP (2004-2006) faced limited or nonexistent M&E performance. - Government objective: set in place an effective monitoring and evaluation system to convince partners and beneficiaries of success. - A three-part report analyzed the INDS and MDG monitoring and evaluation system, describing institutional and technical systems, operating arrangements, and specific tools (performance charts and matrices). - M&E system objectives: - Monitor the strategy implementation process. - Assess impacts based on intermediate indicators and indicators of results. - Monitor and evaluate financial execution. - Set in place an information system. - M&E system components described: - (i) legal framework and functions pertaining to coordination and M&E, - (ii) different levels of monitoring, - (iii) tools and systems, - (iv) reporting and communication, - (v) overall scheme of the M&E system. ### Legal and regulatory framework for monitoring and evaluation - Decree 2007-0106/PRE of February 6, 2007 establishes the organizational structure for formulation, implementation, and M&E of the National Initiative for Social Development. - The decree defines entities and roles; the M&E system comprises: - (i) An umbrella structure: - Interministerial Committee of the National Initiative for Social Development (CI-INDS) - (ii) Two consultative structures: - Committee for Internal Consultation on the INDS between Government, Private Sector, and Civil Society (CCI) - Committee for Government-Donor Consultation on the INDS (CCED) - (iii) Three technical support structures: - Secretariat of State for National Solidarity (SESN) - INDS Technical Committee (CT-INDS) - Thematic Technical Groups (GTTs) (one group for each strategic pillar of the INDS) - (iv) Monitoring and evaluation units or departments at the sectoral and regional levels. ### Statistics: status, progress, and the National Statistics Development Strategy (SNDS) - The PRSP-1 Achilles’ heel was the statistical system: dearth of adequate and reliable data hindered monitoring and led to paradoxes (macroeconomic performance with rising poverty unnoticed). - Government actions in 2008-2009 emphasized resolving statistical problems; projects initiated in 2007 showed significant progress by 2009. - Advances benefiting DISED include: - Development and validation of the National Statistics Development Strategy (SNDS), implementation integral to the INDS. - Successful organization (in 2009) of the General Census of Population and Housing; analyzing and exploiting raw data will require major resources, mobilized under the INDS. - Vote by the National Representation of the Statistics Law establishing and validating institutional, organizational, and technical reforms in the SNDS. - Organization, in progress, of sectoral studies, statistical surveys, and other activities to improve quality of INDS and MDG statistical indicators. - Anticipation that in 2010, 2011, and 2012 the situation will be greatly improved in production, availability, reliability, and publication of national, macroeconomic, and sectoral statistical data. - SNDS summary (Box 3): - Problems identified: (i) institutional (anchorage, independence, coordination, etc.), (ii) human (weak capacities, staff shortage, lack of motivation, etc.), (iii) material (insufficient funding levels and visibility, etc.). - SNDS sets medium-term objectives (2006-2010), strategies, and priority actions. - SNDS is based on UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics and IMF GDDS guidelines. - Four strategic objectives: - Establish a new framework regulating statistics activities and organizing coordination of the national statistics system; - Increase quantity and quality of human resources assigned to the national statistics system; - Improve overall quality and regularity of statistics produced; - Facilitate access to data and promote a culture of statistics. - 13 operational objectives for the overall system, 13 sectoral objectives, 50 results identified by 106 priority action groups, and a cost estimate prepared. - Estimated total cost of implementing SNDS in 2006-2010: roughly DF 3,275 million, i.e. US$18.4 million. - Breakdown by importance: - economic statistics (27.7 percent) - demographic and social statistics (16.1 percent) - institution building and revision of legal/regulatory framework (15.7 percent) - general census of population and housing (12.7 percent) - monitoring of household living conditions (9.7 percent) - human resources development (7.4 percent) - civil status statistics (5.3 percent) - publication and dissemination (3.5 percent) - Government proposes a round table on financing the strategy with SSN stakeholders and development partners. - General Census of Population and Housing organized in last quarter of 2009; data processing under way. - Statistics law ratified by Government in January 2010 enabling DISED to claim legal, institutional, and financial means. ### Risks associated with the INDS and planned measures - Implementation involves risks: endogenous and exogenous factors. - 7-1 Endogenous risks: - Risks relate to implementation of structural reforms and support measures; capacity of national actors to implement projects and programs effectively; overall absorptive capacity; entrenched attitudes and socio-cultural practices; mobilizing actors such as trade unions and staff; viability of taxation. - Dual risk in structural reforms: (a) government red tape, (b) resistance from pressure groups or individuals who think they stand to lose from reforms. - Capacities of national actors constitute a major risk: need for prompt implementation while building capacities simultaneously. - Planned mitigations: - Scheduling of regular IMF and World Bank missions with assessments and regular communications on reform status. - Initial reliance on international expertise and South-South cooperation, parallel to an intensive and systematic capacity-building program. - Large-scale program of awareness-raising, communication, and social mobilization. - 7-2 Exogenous risks: - Linked to: (a) climate and ecological events and natural disasters; (b) shocks from imported product prices, particularly energy and foodstuff; (c) geopolitical instability of the region; (d) complexity of development partners’ procedures; (e) basic assumptions regarding Djibouti’s appeal; (f) external debt sustainability given significant expenditures needed to accelerate growth, reduce poverty, and improve living conditions. - Critical assumption: a very substantial flow of direct foreign investment, some US$800 million, between 2007 and 2012; any reduction would warrant lowering projected growth rates and income poverty reduction targets. - Planned mitigations: - South-South cooperation (specifically in agricultural matters, foreign-based farms). - Systematic implementation and updating of an emergency management plan (ORSEC). - Diversification of energy sources (solar, wind, geothermal, interconnection with Ethiopia, biomass, etc.). - Continuation and furtherance of international and sub-regional dialogue. - Implementation of the Paris Declaration principles and the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM). - Improvement of the business environment. - Advocacy for structural transformation of Djibouti’s debts into grants. - Development of alternative scenarios. ### Annex 1: Short- and Medium-Term Objectives — selected priority indicators and targets (as presented) - Accelerate economic growth: - 1. Nominal GDP per capita (in US dollars) 2006: 9471,00 2007: 1,070 2008: 1,156 2009: 1,244 2010: 1,331 - 2. Real growth rate (%) 2006: 4.8 2007: 5.1 2008: 5.7 2009: 7 2010: 6.6 2011: 5.9 - 3. Real GDP growth rate per capita per year (%) 2006: 2.3 2007: 2.2 2008: 3.1 2009: 4.4 2010: 4 2011: 3.3 - 4. Public investment ratio (% of GDP) 2006: 7.5 2007: 12.4 2008: 12.4 2009: 10.1 2010: 8 2011: 6 - 5. Unemployment rate (%) 2002: 60 .0 - 6. Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector (%) - Preserve macroeconomic stability: - 7. Inflation rate (%) 2006: 3.5 2007: 3.5 2008: 3.5 2009: 3.5 2010: 3.5 2011: 3.5 - 8. Global fiscal balance (based on orders to pay, grants included, as a % of GDP) 2006: -2.3 2007: -3.4 2008: -5.4 2009: -3.4 2010: -1.8 2011: 0.1 - 9. Current transaction balance (official transfers excluded, as a % of GDP) - 10. External current balance (official transfers included, as a % of GDP) 2006: -8.9- 2007: -13.9 2008: -16.9 2009: -17.9 2010: -15.9 2011: -13.7 - 11. Official gross reserves (in months of imports) 2006: 3.2 2007: 2.4 2008: 2.4 2009: 2.4 2010: 2.4 2011: 2.4 - 12. Debt/GDP ratio (%) 2006: 55.5 2007: 58.2 2008: 64.3 2009: 71.3 2010: 73.1 2011: 71 - 13. Official development assistance as a % of GDP - Improve the overall level of education: - 14. Gross primary school enrollment ratio (%) 2006: 55.9 2007: 57.5 2008: 66.2 2009: 70.6 2010: 76.8 2011: 82.9 - 15. Net primary school enrollment ratio (%) 2006: 66.2 - 16. Girl/boy ratio in primary education 2006: 0.81 2007: 0.84 2008: 0.88 2009: 0.92 2010: 0.97 2011: 1 - Girl/boy ratio in secondary education 2006: 0.65 2007: 0.70 2008: 0.73 2009: 0.76 2010: 0.78 2011: 0.81 - Girl/boy ratio in higher education 2006: 0.67 2007: 0.68 2008: 0.67 - 17. Proportion of children reaching the 6th year of basic education (%) 2006: 65.8 2007: 70.2 2008: 74.9 2009: 80.0 2010: 80.7 2011: 81.4 - 18. Proportion of girls reaching the 6th year of basic education (%) - 19. Adult illiteracy rate (aged 15 years and above, as a %) 2002: 27.2 - 20. Adult illiteracy rate (aged 15-24 years, as a %) - 21. Women’s illiteracy rate (aged 15-24 years) compared to men (%) - 22. Current education spending as a % of GDP (nominal GDP = GDP estimated by the IMF) 2006: 7.1 2007: 6.7 2008: 6.2 2009: 5.9 2010: 5.7 2011: 5.6 - Improve the overall health status: - 23. Life expectancy at birth (years) 2002: 49-- - -- - 24. Total fertility rate 2002: 4.2 2007: 4.1 2008: 3.9 2009: 3.7 2010: 3.6 2011: 3.5 - 25. Infant mortality rate (%) 2006: 67 2007: 65 2008: 63 2009: 61 2010: 58 2011: 55 - 26. Infant-juvenile mortality rate (%) 2006: 94 2007: 92 2008: 90 2009: 87 2010: 84 2011: 82 - 27. Proportion of one-year-old children immunized against measles (%) 2006: 53 2007: 65 2008: 70 2009: 75 2010: 85 2011: 90 - 28. Maternal mortality rate (per 100,000 live births) 2006: 550 2007: 530 2008: 510 2009: 490 2010: 480 2011: 460 *Source: _cr12131 - 323. INDS implementation will conform to the procedures laid out in the various financing* ### 29. Proportion of births attended by skilled ### 29. Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel (%) ### Health and nutrition — baseline values and specific targets - Baseline (2006): 87 - Specific targets: - 2011: 90 - 2015: 95 ### Related maternal and child health indicators (baseline and targets as reported) - Life expectancy at birth (years) - 2002 baseline: 49 - Total fertility rate - 2002 baseline: 4.2 - 2011 target: 3.5 - 2015 target: 3 - Infant mortality rate (%) - 2006 baseline: 67 - 2011 target: 55 - 2015 target: 40 - Infant-juvenile mortality rate (%) - 2006 baseline: 94 - 2011 target: 80 - 2015 target: 75 - Proportion of one-year-old children immunized against measles (%) - 2006 baseline: 53 - 2011 target: 90 - 2015 target: 95 - Maternal mortality rate (per 100,000 live births) - 2006 baseline: 550 - 2011 target: 470 - 2015 target: 400 - Total fertility / maternal-child nexus indicator (repeated): - Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel (%) — 2006: 87; 2011: 90; 2015: 95 ### Nutrition and child health (baseline and targets) - Malnutrition rate (body weight by age) among children under 5 years of age (%) - 2006 baseline: 28.6 - 2011 target: 17 - 2015 target: 16 - Longer-term INDS table: 2002 baseline: 18; 2011 target: 10; 2015 target: 6 - Proportion of the population below the minimum caloric intake level (%) - 2006: -- - -- ### Family planning and HIV/AIDS (relevant to maternal/child health) - Rate of contraception use among men (%) - 2006 baseline: 44 - 2011 target: 54 - 2015 target: 62 - HIV/AIDS prevalence rate (%) - 2002 baseline: 2.9 - 2011 target: 2.3 - 2015 target: 2.3 - HIV/AIDS prevalence rate among women aged 15-24 years (%) - 2002 baseline: 2.4 - 2011 target: 2 - 2015 target: 2 - Number of children orphaned by AIDS - 2006 baseline: 5,000 - 2011 target: - - 2015 target: - ### Tuberculosis and other communicable diseases (implications for maternal/child health services) - Tuberculosis prevalence rate (per 100,000 inhabitants) - 2005 baseline: 1,161 - 2011 target: 500 - 2015 target: 400 - Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured under directly observed treatment short course (%) - 2006 baseline: 100 100 100 - 2011 target: 100 - 2015 target: 100 ### Service access and essential drugs (health system factors supporting skilled birth attendance) - Rate of coverage within a 5 km radius (%) - 2006 baseline: 80 - 2011 target: 90 - 2015 target: 100 - Proportion of the population with access to affordable essential drugs on a sustainable basis (%) - 2006 baseline: 80 - 2011 target: 85 - 2015 target: 90 - Rate of service coverage in urban areas (%) - 2006 baseline: 75 - 2011 target: 84 - 2015 target: 87 - Rate of coverage in rural and semi-urban areas (%) - 2006 baseline: 72 - 2011 target: 80 ### Key performance linkages - Increasing the proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel is paired with: - Reductions in maternal mortality rate from 550 (2006) to 400 (2015). - Improvements in infant mortality rate from 67 (2006) to 40 (2015). - Greater immunization coverage (measles) from 53 (2006) to 95 (2015). - Expanded access to essential drugs and closer service coverage within a 5 km radius (2006 baseline values and 2011/2015 targets shown above). *Source: _cr12131 - 29. Proportion of births attended by skilled (IMF PDF excerpt).* ### Executive Summary ### _cr12131 - Executive Summary ### Background - Poverty reduction - Implementation of development and poverty reduction strategies set forth in the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) in 2003 and carried out through the National Initiative for Social Development (INDS) launched in January 2007 requires a sustainable system for monitoring and evaluation of economic and social development policies and programs built around reliable, available, and up-to-date statistics. - INDS redefines top priorities of government action as a social project “intended to reduce social division, exclusion, and poverty.” It “is neither a short-term project nor a topical program linked to the present economic climate. Its mandate is ongoing and open-ended.”19 - Competitiveness of the economy - Strategic pillar: “improve the country’s competitiveness and create the conditions for strong and sustainable economic growth”20 aimed at promoting the Djibouti market as a competitive economic and financial platform regionally and internationally. - Requires effective, permanent mechanisms for collecting, processing, and analyzing statistical data on Djibouti and regular observation of regional economic dynamics through a well performing general, economic, and financial data collection network. - Regional decentralization - Decentralization process (under way since 2005) requires disaggregated statistical data on demographics and on economic and socio-cultural activity in different regions. - Fundamental principles of official statistics - First principle: “official statistics provide an indispensable element in the information system of a democratic society,” implying access to information is a fundamental right and an essential element of good governance. - International commitments of the Republic of Djibouti - Commitment to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) requires statistical monitoring and total commitment from the national statistics system to satisfy monitoring and evaluation needs of official development programs. - Adherence to the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) and requirements of COMESA and IGAD commits the country to producing statistics meeting international standards in: (i) data (scope of application, periodicity, dissemination time); (ii) quality; (iii) integrity of data production; (iv) utility; and (v) public access to the data. ### Status of the National Statistics System (SSN) - General assessment - The SSN is described as “underdeveloped” and insufficient for meeting new needs for quality statistics generated by political, economic, social, and cultural challenges. - Inappropriate legal and regulatory framework - Statistics law 196/AN/81 is outdated, not applied with respect to provisions on obligation to respond, and not explicit about use of sources for statistical purposes. - The Statistics Coordinating Committee created at DISED by this law is not functional nor representative, resulting in lack of effective statistics coordination and absence of dialogue between producers and users. - Lack of harmonization of data collection methods and absence of statistical activities monitoring and evaluation tradition. - Quantitatively and qualitatively weak human resources - Critical shortage of statisticians at all levels; absence of high- and mid-level statisticians and no statistics training staff; absence of incentives for working statisticians. - DISED current staffing versus needs: - Currently: three statistical works engineers and two statistics technical assistants. - Needs: eight economist statisticians and demographers, 20 statistical works engineers or the equivalent, and 40 statistics technical assistants or the equivalent. - Limited budget resources - Among producers of statistics, only DISED reports a specific budget for producing statistics, and that budget is almost entirely devoted to labor costs. - Weak domestic financing negatively impacts data collection and processing and leads to systematic recourse to external financing for surveys, with external funds often diverted to day-to-day operations. ### National Statistics Development Strategy (SNDS) and Statistics Master Plan (2009-2013) - Purpose - SNDS aims to restructure and revitalize the National Statistics System to create sustainable capability to respond to requests for statistics and meet monitoring and evaluation requirements of development policies, programs, and projects by making quality statistics available that meet international standards and are disseminated on a timely basis. - Objectives and expected results (if Master Plan is properly implemented) - Revitalization of the National Statistics System by adopting a new statistics law to ensure effective coordination, methodological validation upstream, and dialogue between users and producers. - Strengthening of administrative statistics systems, particularly at the regional level. - Reliability and use of improved data through dissemination of data, metadata, and analyses. - Consistency in organization of statistical surveys and production to meet poverty and household living conditions monitoring and evaluation needs. - Effective donor support by incorporating donor activities in the overall program of statistics production. - Implementation of a training and human resources development plan for the statistics system. - Implementation of a dissemination and computerization plan for development of statistics production. - Costs of the Statistics Master Plan - Total estimated cost of implementing the SDS 2009-2013 project: roughly DF 4,115 million, i.e. US$23.1 million. - Cost breakdown by emphasis: economic statistics (26.3 percent), the general census of population and housing (16.8 percent), demographic and social statistics (15.4 percent), institution building and the legal and regulatory framework of the National Statistics System (15.0 percent), monitoring of household living conditions (9.3 percent), human resources development (7.1 percent), civil status statistics (5.0 percent), publication and dissemination (3.3 percent). - Financing achieved to date or under negotiation: estimated to total just 16 percent and solely concerns the general census of population and housing and the household time budget survey. - Cost breakdown of the SDS 2009-2013 project by statistics category (figures as presented) - Statistics category Costs (DF thousands) - Total 4,115,103 2009 1,408,674 2010 867,700 2011 685,726 2012 620,059 2013 532,944 - Pillar 1: Legal and regulatory framework 615,838 85,487 305,308 85,469 63,821 75,754 - Pillar 2: Training 293,413 28,289 90,600 115,004 40,920 18,600 - Pillar 3: Quality and regularity of statistics 3,070,002 1,281,570 423,322 460,568 490,634 413,906 - Of which: - Population (census of the population and civil status statistics) 897,294 695,985 94,002 30,210 36,008 41,088 - Household living conditions 381,914 85,440 12,218 65,447 168,625 50,184 - Methodologies 74,814 26,113 8,117 11,641 16,234 12,709 - Economic statistics 1,081,590 328,642 191,674 213,322 161,278 186,676 - Demographic and social statistics 634,390 145,391 117,311 139,949 108,490 123,250 - Pillar 4: Publication and dissemination 135,851 13,328 48,470 24,684 24,684 24,684 - Grand total 4,115,103 1,408,674 867,700 685,726 620,059 532,944 ### Conditions of success for the SNDS - Political commitment - Successful implementation rests first and foremost on commitment of political authorities and their awareness of the role of statistics and the need to strengthen the statistics system sustainably. - Authorities must implement a clear statistics policy taking the new statistics law and the Statistics Master Plan as the sole frame of reference, including establishing the High Council on Statistics and related technical entities, and financing and monitoring all action plans under the Master Plan. - Coordination of statistics financing - Important requirement: coordination of external financing by creating a Group of Statistics Partners (with one partner chosen as group leader) to bring international partners together and coordinate with SDS steering bodies on statistics operations programs and mobilization of funds. *Source: _cr12131 - Executive Summary* ### Annex 6: Government Action Plan ### Annex 6: Government Action Plan ### Ministry of Economy and Finance, Responsible for Privatization - Objectives: - Maintain sustainable growth - Redistribution of wealth - Contain the wage bill - Diversify the national economy - Very short term: - Develop the purchasing power of low-income wage-earners. - Form a national committee composed of economists, the private and public sectors, and civil society, tasked with reexamining the country’s economic policy. - Facilitate and institutionalize the dialogue with private operators. - Carry out awareness-raising and informational campaigns on the reforms undertaken (General Tax Code, VAT, Investment Code, etc.). - Further improve the performance of administrative procedures at the Ministry of Finance. - Intensify price controls to avoid abuses by traders in collaboration with the Ministry of Commerce. - Medium term: - Revive the organizational audit. - Further encourage Djibouti SME/SMIs by instituting tax incentives to promote investment and job creation. - Increase the bankarization rate in Djibouti. - Facilitate access to bank financing for households and SME/SMIs. - Strengthen the national statistics system and disseminate statistical information. - Long term: - Set in place incentives to improve the investment context and conditions in Djibouti. ### Ministry of Commerce and Industry - Objectives: - Revitalize the industrial and handicrafts sector - Promote regional economic integration - Diversify sources of supply - Very short term: - Revitalize the Commerce, Industry, and Handicrafts sectors by adopting a development strategy for each sector, while giving priority to industrialization. - Establish a National Day of Djibouti Handicrafts as a way to promote the learning of trades, with equal attention given to apprenticeship and occupational integration. - Create a Craftsmen’s Village. - Adopt new measures to facilitate trade and implement those already taken to position Djibouti as a commercial platform, in particular through regional integration. - Implement the provisions of the law on competition to combat monopolistic behavior and illicit agreements. - Study ways and means to stimulate the private sector to invest more and create more jobs in order to bring down massive unemployment. - Medium and long term: - Organize subsectors that import and export so they can achieve economies of scale. - Ensure the reliability of market price data and disseminate the posted values in local languages by making use of all available media. ### Ministry of Investment Promotion - Objectives: - Transfer skills and technologies - Improve the business climate - Facilitate and speed up approval procedures - Promote investments and the country’s image abroad - Very short term: - Encourage the creation of joint ventures between national and foreign companies. - Expand the Investment Code to include handicraft businesses. - Revise the Investment Code and, in particular, raise the Scheme A threshold in the Investment Code. - Promote the assets and advantages offered to national and foreign investors by Djibouti. - Restructure ANPI; expand its partnership with CCD and APZF. - Increase the supply of financing for private operators. - Regularly produce sectoral statistical data. - Create an office and website to orient and facilitate communication with the diaspora and young Djiboutian developers. - Coordinate the activities of government entities responsible for promoting investments in cooperation with diplomatic missions. ### Ministry of Equipment and Transport - Objectives: - Ensure the availability of reliable meteorological data - Continue to build and upgrade new roads - Continue to reduce regional isolation - Very short term: - Create a National Directorate of Meteorology and focus efforts on the rehabilitation of weather stations located in the different regions of the country. - Redefine the road systems. - Implement speed reducing systems around schools and in areas frequented by children. - Improve road safety through rigorous enforcement of existing laws by the traffic police and greater awareness-raising about the dangers of traffic through public service announcements. - Accelerate route development. - Raise the awareness of bus trade unions about the necessity and usefulness of bus shelters (in progress). - Assist and support students taking transport courses at UD for better integration in the transport sector (in partnership with MEIFP). - Organize the Ministry’s archives and open them to the general public. - Medium term: - Create bus stations. - Make ample documentation available and readily accessible to students. - Develop and modernize transport chains so they can keep pace with the emergence of cross-border trade, particularly the Djibouti-Ethiopia railroad. - Continue efforts to rehabilitate and maintain urban and rural roads. - Reactivate sea links (Djibouti-Tadjourah-Obock/Tadjourah-Obock); promote this mode of transport. ### Ministry of Communication and Culture - Objectives: - See to copyright protection - Reduce the digital divide - Make the National Printing Office competitive - Promote the cultural heritage - Short term: - See to artwork and copyright protection. - Modify the current organizational structure of RTD by creating distinct branches for radio and television (in progress). - Increase the number and quality of telecommunications services, especially in terms of access, performance, and coverage in rural areas in particular. - Develop and diversify the supply of services offered by the Djibouti National Printing Office (IND), and require the Government and public institutions to make use of IND’s services. - Build another theater, with high capacity, in the municipality of Balbala. - Develop awareness-raising programs on the rights of the disabled (radio, television, La Nation newspaper) and arrange broadcasting air time. - Harmonize the status of journalists. - Medium and long term: - Establish decentralized cultural services and see to protection of the cultural and regional heritage. - Expand general access to new information and communications technologies. ### Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources - Objectives: - Strengthen the production capacity of EDD - Develop own energy sources - Reduce energy dependency - Develop human resources - Medium and long term: - Continue the quest for renewable energy such as geothermal and wind, and pursue widespread use of solar energy in inland villages and rural areas. - Expand rural village electrification projects in cooperation with other ministries. - Implement an action plan to manage energy use by government services and in public and semipublic institutions. - Improve working conditions of EDD production staff and raise their wage scale. - Institute social fare reductions. - Strengthen the capacities of EDD. ### Ministry of Health - Objectives: - Strengthen universal access to health care - Coverage of the disabled - Ensure health monitoring - Short term: - Strengthen the Health Promotion component by stepping up awareness-raising campaigns (information, education, communication) in partnership with civil society (local associations, NGOs, CDCs, etc.) (in progress). - Provide free care to students upon presentation of a student identity card. - Provide free care to retired persons. - Review the requirements for issuing certificates of indigence. - Strengthen health controls in border towns to fight transmissible diseases. - Transform existing health centers in the capital into polyclinics. - Set up an infirmary in rural schools. - Medium term: - Train medical staff about the importance of welcoming and displaying compassion to patients. - Build a regional hospital in each of the chief towns of inland regions. - Train medical staff in sign language to facilitate communication with the deaf and hearing-impaired. ### Ministry of Education - Objectives: - Improve the quality of basic education - School enrollment for children with special educational needs - Implementation of a strategy to improve the quality of education - Short and medium term: - Improve access to education for children. - Improve integration of disabled children in the educational system by creating appropriate facilities. - Support early-learning activities by creating vegetable gardens around rural schools. - Lower textbook costs for parents who have more than four children in primary, middle, or high school. - Improve and ensure the sustainability of school dining and housing facilities in rural areas. - Establish early-learning programs for pupils in rural areas. - Continue the process of working to democratize basic education. - Create a training institute for middle and high school teachers, i.e. an Advanced Education Institute. - Adapt technical, vocational, and university education in line with job market needs. - Improve access to new information and communications technologies at all levels of education. - Introduce a reduced-rate student loan for purchasing a portable computer by working out an agreement with the banks; the Government would guarantee these loans. - Long term: - Ensure the sustainability of financing for education reform. ### Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock Production, and Marine Affairs, Responsible for Water Resources - Objectives: - Ensure food security countrywide - Promote the primary sector - Further promote fishery activities - Promote and support the livestock industry - Short term (Water and Sanitation): - Develop a comprehensive rural water supply program, specifying means such as cement-lined wells, tube-wells, dams, and water supply systems. - Establish a surface water mobilization program. - Improve neighborhood supply of safe drinking water, with attention given to low-income households. - ONEAD should move quickly to solve the problems of water availability, particularly in the city of Arta and the town of Dikhil. - Develop a reliable sanitation system in neighborhoods of the capital. - Upgrade the sanitation system. - Rehabilitate dilapidated ONEAD facilities to avoid water waste and loss. - Prioritize water supply for industry (food processing, etc.). - Short term (Agriculture): - Provide assistance in fighting insects and pests. - Further strengthen agricultural development, especially in areas of known potential such as Hanlé and Gobaad, based on integrated management to ensure sustainable use of water and soil resources. - Short term (Fisheries): - Set up a fisheries development system. - With the involvement of fishermen themselves, ensure that boat repair shops function smoothly. - Set up an effective system of fisheries promotion. - Short term (Livestock): - Institute coercive measures aimed at livestock exporters to ensure a local market supply of meat in the event of high demand. - Medium term (Water): - Conduct hydrogeological studies for urban centers to ensure sustainable water supply. Expand well fields or identify new ones. - Continue actions to ensure water supply. - Medium term (Agriculture): - The Ministry of Agriculture, in collaboration with the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Health, will participate in the creation of vegetable gardens around schools and dispensaries in rural areas. Water availability will need to be studied in advance. - Set up an appropriate information system for groups involved in agro-pastoral activities. - Conduct a study to ensure optimal flow of agro-pastoral products nationwide; look at the cost of agro-pastoral products and propose a relevant action program. - Conduct a study on the impact of climate change on agricultural activities in collaboration with CERD and the Ministry of the Environment. - Develop an action program and specifically a training component for farmers. ### Ministry of Housing, Urban Development, and Environment, Responsible for Land Development - Objectives: - Ensure universal access to ownership - Adopt an efficient policy on cities - Protect the environment - Short term (Habitat): - Organize campaigns to inform the general public about all possible forms of access to ownership. - Facilitate conditions of access to ownership for low-income households. - Reduce the expenses of transferring and registering property in the case of private sales. - Reactivate the lands commission and work to develop a rational framework for managing land assets. - Study an appropriate mechanism for facilitating house payments by heirs upon the parents’ death and also by low-income young people. - Short term (Urban and land development): - Establish urban development master plans for the city of Djibouti and for secondary cities and, more specifically, establish a cadastral map of the country. - Enforce the regulations in effect regarding the procedure for obtaining a building permit. - Facilitate access to government buildings for persons with reduced mobility. - Short term (Environment): - Strengthen coordination of activities between the Government and actors involved in managing environmental projects. - Take environmental concerns into consideration in public policy. ### Ministry of Youth, Sports, and Leisure - Objectives: - Develop social structures that will allow young people to flourish - Support high-level sports development - Promote access to sporting activities to combat juvenile delinquency - Improve Djibouti’s image as a destination - Short and medium term (Youth): 1. Build Community Development Centers (CDCs) in each neighborhood and inland region to prevent juvenile delinquency. Renovate those that are in poor condition. 2. Train professional outreach officials for better coverage of youth. Facilitate the hiring of young people trained in the CDCs. 3. Conduct a social survey of changes in Djibouti youth and their behavior. 4. Provide greater resources to CDC extension workers. 5. Accelerate the opening, at each CDC, of an occupational integration or job service where local youth can obtain information and receive counseling and advice. 6. Raise the awareness of youth about the ill effects of soft drugs (khat, tobacco, etc.). - Short and medium term (Sports): 7. Continue the policy of early detection of young talent and training for high-level athletes (in progress) and arrange training for hopefuls at sports academies abroad. 8. Improve the competitiveness of Djibouti’s athletes. 9. Draw conclusions from the sports-and-studies school and develop an action program. 10. Create spaces for relaxation and sports in new housing developments. 11. Create playgrounds for families. 12. Build tennis courts for youth (in progress). 13. Promote water sports (windsurfing, swimming, etc.). - Short and medium term (Tourism): 14. Raise citizens’ awareness about the importance of extending a friendly welcome to tourists coming in greater and greater numbers to Djibouti, and of improving the country’s image as a land of hospitality. 15. Accelerate implementation of the tourism trades training program so Djiboutian youth will be the main beneficiaries of tourism development. 16. Install an aquarium in the city of Djibouti. ### Ministry of Employment and Occupational Training and Integration - Objectives: - Reduce youth unemployment - Ensure fair access to employment - Establish a privileged partnership with the private sector - Develop job and occupational integration opportunities for young people - Make public administration more effective - Short and medium term: - Form a working group to stimulate businesses to hire. - Reassign government employees. - Revive the organizational audit. - Reflect on a new policy to improve public administration performance. - Revitalize INAP. - Reexamine public management and encourage civil servants to work efficiently (through performance contracts, output requirements, etc.). - Revitalize ANEFIP: improve reception of the general public and user services, information services for users while reducing processing time, and ANEFIP’s material and human resources. - Make the employment watchdog unit created within ANEFIP fully operational. - Create more ties with businesses. - Regularly update a bulletin of labor market statistics with the support and collaboration of DISED. - Publish monthly or bimonthly news bulletins on available jobs and jobs to look for. - Train agency inspectors and auditors in professional ethics and labor law. - Improve the average level of this category of employee so they can provide better oversight of worksites and businesses. - Place inspectors in all the regions. - Rehabilitate CFPA facilities and revitalize the training policy. - Strengthen the technical and professional qualifications of those leaving the education system. - Help disabled children become integrated into the working world. - Encourage unpaid internships. - Institute apprenticeship incentives. - Undertake a study of the informal sector’s impact on job creation. - Set up insurance within OPS to cover risks for interns. - Speed up the process of actual CNSS implementation. ### Ministry of Muslim Affairs and Mosque Properties - Objectives: - Further promote religion and maintain places of worship - Improve organization of the pilgrimage - Short term: - Create a residential complex and center at Sans Fil. - Finish construction of the PK12 cemetery enclosure; establish a tomb alignment plan; earmark a charitable bequest for the cemetery; and create a registry of the deceased. - Further promote religion and learning centers in the regions. - Improve management of the pilgrimage, especially in terms of logistics and, more specifically, the issue of air transport for pilgrims. - Make places of worship accessible to persons of limited mobility. - Rehabilitate Ambouli cemetery. - Optimize management of mosque properties in regard to cost recovery. - Create an Islamic Center in Quartier 7. - Medium and long term: - Renovate places of worship and plan expansions as needed. - Enlarge certain mosques and plan expansions of rooms designated for women. - Build a mosque in Einguela. - Create centers for Koranic education and memorization in all the regions. ### Secretariat of State for National Solidarity - Objectives: - Continue the policy of fighting poverty through the INDS - Reduce the social divide from a geographic standpoint - Facilitate access to credit for young graduates - Improve the living conditions of vulnerable groups - Short and medium term: - Ensure the sustainability of poverty reduction activities. - Expand social projects to all neighborhoods and into the regions. - Promote employment of young graduates and occupational integration of the disabled. - Provide solar-powered public lighting at the Ambouli cemetery. - Create infrastructure for the most underprivileged petty traders, especially in PK12, Sans Fil, etc. - Establish ADDS field units in working-class neighborhoods. - Expand electrification projects to encompass renewable energy in inland regions. - Support farmers in rural areas to ensure the viability of their farms. - Promote a culture of savings. - Further develop income-generating activities. - Implement a partnership policy with local banks. - Increase and expand access to credit. ### Ministry for the Promotion of Women and Family Well-Being - Objectives: - Encourage women’s entrepreneurship - Promote women’s integration in the public and private spheres - Raise awareness of gender equality on the part of all stakeholders - Short and medium term (Women’s entrepreneurship and training): - Continue to ramp up advocacy and social mobilization activities for women’s education, training, and socioeconomic integration. - Implement a large-scale literacy education program in national languages and study the impact. - Take the needs of the disabled into account and promote training and occupational integration for women living with a disability. - Make adequate resources available for the implementation of formal and nonformal education projects and programs for girls. - Promote women’s entrepreneurship as a way to create income-generating activities, particularly through training actions to build qualifications in small trades practiced by women. - Facilitate women’s access to microfinance in rural areas. - Increase the enrollment capacity of training centers, particularly the one in Balbala, and build vocational training centers in the inland districts. - Short and medium term (Gender equality): - Strengthen the role of women in decision-making, particularly through improved representation in diplomatic posts and senior government positions. - Raise the awareness of gender equality on the part of all stakeholders with a view to achieving the Millennium Development Goals. - Raise the awareness of all social actors in order to eliminate all forms of discrimination. - Short and medium term (Family well-being): - Make couples more aware of their domestic duties and obligations. - Raise awareness with an eye to strengthening the family unit. - Strengthen the family unit. - Strive to shorten the distance between water points and homes as a way to lighten the work of women and young girls in rural areas. - Place a national priority on the prevention and control of drugs and harmful products, aimed in particular at adolescents, young people, and women. - Revisit with social partners the issue of the duration of maternity leave, taking into account the socio-cultural realities and new health data on the duration and benefits of breastfeeding. - Create a Women’s Center where young mothers will be trained to raise their children according to tradition (by learning lullabies, stories, the mother tongue, etc.). - Train social workers. - Form a working group to monitor children’s custody after their parents’ divorce, in collaboration with the Ministry of Justice and the Ministry of Mosque Properties. ### Ministry of the Interior and Decentralization - Objectives: - Enhance public security - Implement prevention and awareness-raising strategies to combat delinquency and vandalism - Put decentralization into effect - Short term: - Develop neighborhood police activity with a greater emphasis on prevention. - Reexamine policy on clandestine immigration and the foreign population. - Implement the 2007 decree transferring competence and, in particular: - Review the scope of competence and the actual means; - Redefine and delimit the prerogatives of each of the institutions responsible for decentralization, namely the prefecture, the central government, and the regional councils. - Provide the regional councils with their own resources, intended to support them in performing their mission. - Reactivate, under the Office of the Prime Minister, the commission responsible for monitoring the decentralization process. - Strengthen the human and material capacities of OVD and regularize the status of women employed by OVD to clean public facilities. - Medium term: - Form a committee of representatives from the Ministry of Mosque Properties, the Ministry of Communication, and the Ministry of Education to raise the awareness of young people in a positive way. - Improve the security situation in urban areas for the benefit of all. ### Ministry of Defense - Objectives: - Develop an action plan for modernizing the army - Enhance the status of servicemen - Short term: - Form a corps of reservists in case of armed threat. - Designate a national home for retired servicemen (in progress). - Extend the duration of service before retirement. - Improve the living conditions of servicemen living at isolated posts. - Increase the retirement benefits of servicemen and provide free health coverage to retirees. - Conduct a study on the management of CMR and its organizational structure. - Boost the capacities and staffing of FAD to ensure rigorous border controls. - Train soldiers in the use of new information and communications technologies. - Continue the SNA efforts. ### Ministry of Justice - Objectives: - Improve the functioning of the justice system - Achieve better social and occupational integration of prisoners when they are released - Facilitate the accessibility of justice for low-income persons - Short term: - Establish an international arbitration center. - Raise the pay of clerks of the court. - Put the reform of the Administrative Tribunal into effect. - Create jurisdictional branch offices in all the inland regions. - Report more effectively on justice system activities by creating a website and publishing case law on a regular basis. - Boost judicial assistance by increasing the number of officially appointed lawyers. - Establish a directorate responsible for collecting fines imposed by the courts. - Place occupational outreach workers in detention centers. - Rehabilitate prisons in the inland regions. - Medium term: - Speed up the reforms under way, particularly in regard to the civil code, the code of civil procedure, etc. - Bring to fruition the project to expand the prison facility for women and minors in Gabode and create a training center to ensure better integration. - Bring the justice system close to the people in inland regions by encouraging the mobility of judges. ### Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation (and Min.-Del. for International Cooperation) - Objectives: - Revitalize diplomacy - To attract direct foreign investment, promote the country’s economic potential - Short and medium term: - Create a position of economic advisor in each embassy to promote the country’s economic image and bring in direct foreign investment. - Train Djibouti diplomats by creating an Institute of Diplomacy Studies. - Put the principle of diplomat mobility into effect by maintaining a rotation of officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; develop a career plan for diplomats when they return to the country. - Take greater advantage of the presence of military forces stationed in the country, economically, socially, and politically. - Support and encourage Somalian institutions set up as part of the Djibouti 2008 process to consolidate peace in the region. - Streamline diplomatic representation and place a priority on potentially opening diplomatic representations based on national interests. - Improve coordination of activities between technical ministries and embassies. - Coordinate Ministry of Foreign Affairs information by improving communication with embassies, particularly through the use of tools such as intranet. *Annex 6: Government Action Plan — content unit _cr12131.* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/_cr12131.pdf_