## 1. The second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP-II) articulates Burundi’s

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [1. The second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP-II) articulates Burundi’s](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/_cr12225.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/_cr12225.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/_cr12225.pdf.json)

---

### Strategic objectives and structure
- PRSP-II timeframe: 2012-15.
- Four strategic axes:
  - (i) strengthening the rule of law, consolidating good governance, and promoting gender equality;
  - (ii) transforming Burundi’s economy to achieve sustainable and job-creating growth;
  - (iii) improving access to and quality of basic services and strengthening social protection;
  - (iv) promoting environmental and land management to ensure the preservation of the country’s natural assets.
- Expected contribution: successful implementation is expected to contribute to the realization of Burundi’s Vision 2025.

### Sources of growth and sectoral priorities
- Emphasis on modernizing agriculture through value chains (key staple foods, milk and meat) because agriculture accounts for about 90 percent of current employment.
- Export diversification beyond coffee and tea to reduce external vulnerability and promote job creation.
- Growth potential highlighted in mining and tourism sectors.
- Regional integration within East African Community (EAC) viewed as an important channel for enhancing private activity via connective infrastructure and improved business environment.
- Staff recommendation: implement the action plan of the updated Diagnostic Trade Integration Study for stronger reform impact.

### Quick-win interventions and main development challenges
- Quick-win focus: improved access to health, education, and water and sanitation to consolidate the peace dividend and build support for reforms.
- Six identified development and growth challenges:
  - (i) the strong demographic pressure;
  - (ii) the need to intensify agricultural productivity to sustain food security;
  - (iii) the need to increase the efficiency of public spending;
  - (iv) the acceleration of private sector development;
  - (v) energy supply;
  - (vi) the strengthening of institutional capacity.

### Gaps, recommendations on design and monitoring
- Government next steps urged:
  - provide more details on priority reforms and actions, and realistic costing;
  - finalize costing of PRSP-II interventions and reflect them in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF); authorities expected to finalize the PAP-MTEF by late 2012.
- Social policy recommendations:
  - protect social and basic infrastructure expenditures (health, population, education, water, sanitation, housing) against lower than expected financial resources;
  - promote universal access to social and basic services, safety nets for vulnerable groups, and support households affected by disasters and climate change.
- Statistical capacity: implement 2010 National Strategy for Statistical Development (NSSD) and update NSSD Action Plan end-2012 to include two light monitoring surveys (2013 and 2014) and a new household survey (2015).

### Donor coordination and participation
- PRSP-II intended as the reference framework for donor coordination and resource mobilization; authorities consulted development partners on planned financial and technical assistance.
- Staff view: improved coordination and alignment of donor assistance would reduce transaction costs, increase aid predictability, and improve implementation efficiency.
- Consultations held widely (commune/sector levels, private sector, civil society, thematic fora, parliament, economic and social council, local officials, donors). Monitoring and Evaluation Group of the Partners’ Coordination Group (GCP) advised monthly.

### Poverty diagnosis and social indicators
- Latest poverty indicators not updated since 2006.
- Current poverty rate: 67 percent.
- Poverty gap: 23 percent.
- Poverty headcount calculation uses two poverty lines:
  - rural: 524 Burundian Francs or 0.51US$ per head and per day;
  - urban: 677 Burundian Francs or 0.66US$ per head and per day.
- Employment and welfare findings:
  - Poor households are more employed in agriculture and more likely underemployed.
  - On average, households in the poorest quintile work 4 months less than those in the wealthiest quintile.
- Food security metrics:
  - Average yearly staple food production per capita: 120 kg in cereal equivalent;
  - Average annual requirement to meet daily 2100 kcal: 190 kg.
  - Food represents 67 percent of total expenditure; 90 percent of population in rural areas.
- Inflation and purchasing power:
  - High inflation rate around 20 percent since November 2011 has reduced purchasing power, disproportionately impacting poorest households; government has periodically reduced taxes on staple food.
- MDG outlook:
  - Effective PRSP-II implementation expected to help MDG convergence, but very few MDGs likely to be met by 2015.
  - Net primary enrollment could reach 100 percent before 2015 with gender parity due to free primary school fees, but drop-outs expected to remain high.
  - Health and social protection MDGs are not expected to be reached despite progress in specific areas (e.g., HIV/AIDS prevalence).

### Macroeconomic and fiscal framework assessment
- PRSP-II baseline growth scenario: averages 6.9 percent growth over 2012-15 (described as appropriate but optimistic).
- Comparison with IMF ECF-supported program:
  - ECF initially forecasted average growth at 5.1 percent over 2012-15, revised down to 4.2 percent in June 2012.
  - Staffs encourage developing alternative scenarios and contingent plans for lower external financing and/or external shocks given vulnerability to aid inflows and external shocks.
- Revenue and public financial management alignment:
  - PRSP-II aligned with IMF program on revenue mobilization, PFM, and fiscal transparency.
  - Creation of the Burundi Revenue Authority (OBR) in 2009 contributed to a sharp increase in revenue collection.
  - Needed reforms: approval and implementation of income and excise tax laws; streamlining tax exemptions legal framework; adoption of mining legal framework; support to tax administration capacity.
- Fiscal space and public investment:
  - Need to balance recurrent and capital expenditures and provide sufficient outlays for operations and maintenance.
  - Demobilization pace should be evaluated in light of security situation and private sector absorption capacity; the wage bill carries structural rigidities as cost of securing peace.
- Debt position:
  - Burundi classified at high risk of debt distress; authorities committed to rely on grants or highly concessional loans.
  - As a country at high risk of debt distress, all Burundi’s external financing are expected to be concessional at a level of at least 50 percent.
- PFM improvements: recent IMF 2011 ex-post assessment and March 2012 PEFA recognize improvements; development of a new PFM strategy ongoing.

### Governance, procurement, and transparency
- PRSP-II emphasizes improving transparency of public tendering to strengthen governance and accountability and maintain public and donor support for PRSP-II delivery.

### Foundations for stable and inclusive growth
- Private sector development focus: better infrastructure, improved business climate, skills development, and financial inclusion; strong emphasis on agriculture given rain-fed subsistence character and narrow export base (coffee and tea).
- Electricity:
  - Electricity access: only 5 percent of households have access to electricity.
  - Demand is twice as large as supply.
  - Government plans to double electricity supply by 2016 through PPPs; staffs welcome plans but caution due to fragile debt situation and need for very concessional loans.
  - Staffs encourage reforms to redress National Electricity and Water Company financial situation via sustainable cost-recovery, continued regional integration, adaptation of legal framework, and feasibility of divestiture strategy.
- Investment climate priorities:
  - Ease access to credit, facilitate tax compliance, simplify registration and trade procedures.
  - Implement trade agreements (one-stop border posts) with EAC neighbors to reduce delays and transaction costs.
  - Promote special economic zones (SEZ) to foster agglomeration effects and improve infrastructure access (energy, ICT, logistics).
- Human capital and labor quality:
  - Introduce a national assessment of learning achievement to guide resource allocation.
  - Implement new “fundamental education” curriculum in primary school to increase literacy and learning performance.
  - Align technical and professional education with private sector needs using recommendations of a recent study on the deficit of skills.
- Financial access and property rights:
  - Implement recommendations from the 2008 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) and the 2011 Financial Sector Development Strategy (FSDS).
  - MSMEs lack access to credit due to poor guarantees, limited information, and weak capacity to comply with financial institutions.
  - Encourage financial sector to develop innovative products and offer training programs to small investors.
  - Establish clear and secure property rights (including land) to address inconsistent laws and poor application.

### Agriculture, rural development, and targets
- Role of agriculture, livestock and fishery development emphasized; National Plan of Agricultural Investment (PNIA 2012-2017) details structural reforms to raise production:
  - (i) promote techniques that restore and preserve soil fertility;
  - (ii) encourage efficient water management and small-scaled irrigation;
  - (iii) increase average farm size from 0.5 hectare to 1 hectare.
- Agricultural transformation approach: promote value chains for diversified export crops, selected staple foods (cassava and beans), oleaginous crops (palm oil), milk and meat, and sugarcane.
- Government commitment: reduce its role in the coffee sector; cotton sector plans unclear.
- Staff advice: consider making Burundi a seed multiplier and seed distribution center for EAC.

*Source: IMF staff assessment of Burundi’s PRSP-II (Content unit: _cr12225 - 1. The second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP-II) articulates Burundi’s).*

### 23. Staffs support the priority given by the authorities to address population growth

### Population and social development challenges
- Rapid population growth: "3 percent in recent years".
- High fertility: "6.4 children per women".
- Impacts identified: land fragmentation and conflicts, food security, poverty reduction, and universal access to social services.
- Human Development Index ranking: "185 out of 187 countries by the UNDP’s Human Development Index in 2011".

### Education
- Free primary education increased enrollment but quality/achievement shortcomings remain.
- Literacy: "40.5 percent" of the population; gender disparity: "35 percent for women and 47 percent for men".
- Government initiative: introduction of the “fundamental school” to shift primary education duration from "6 years" to "9 years".
- Updating of the "2009-2016 Sector Development Plan for Education and Training (PSDEF)" with donor support.
- Staff recommendation: use reliable planning and costing approaches to improve expenditure efficiency while implementing the new primary education approach.

### Health
- MDG outlook: country unlikely to meet MDG targets despite improvements.
- Immunization coverage: "83-90 percent".
- Free health services for under-five children and pregnant women.
- Maternal mortality: "499 per 100,000 live births in 2010".
- Under-five mortality: "96 per 1,000 live births in 2010 and 167 per 1,000 live births in 2005".
- Malaria incidence: rose from "26 percent in 2005 to 34 percent in 2010".
- Insecticide-treated mosquito net usage: "44 percent of households".
- Deliveries assisted by qualified staff: increased from "34 percent" in 2005 to "60 percent" in 2010.
- Contraceptive use rates: "11.4 percent in 2008, 14 percent in 2009, and 18 percent in 2010".
- Staffs conclude universal access to reproductive health by 2015 is unlikely.
- Staffs’ agreed priorities to improve equity and quality of care:
  - (i) improving the functionality of existing infrastructure to provide adequate health care to the whole population;
  - (ii) strengthening the performance-based financing (FBP) and free care policies by ensuring the financial sustainability of the system;
  - (iii) providing better health insurance to the rural population and vulnerable groups through both community mutual associations for health and the promotion of the Health Insurance Card (CAM).

### Water and sanitation
- Urban access to safe drinking water: increased from "80 percent in 2005 to 85 percent in 2010".
- Main water source: Tanganyika Lake (noted as increasingly polluted with potential costly treatment and higher tariffs).
- Rural access to safe drinking water: "63 percent of the population in 2005 and 74 percent in 2010", with over "69 percent of water points being in working conditions".
- Time burden: women and children spend an average of "2 hours a day" on water fetching tasks, negatively affecting school attendance and girls’ performance.
- Government actions: new water tariff adopted; plans to explore options to improve sector financial viability.
- Staffs support expansion of access, highlighting need for further rural improvements.

### Social protection and food security
- Rural food insecurity: affects about "30 percent of the population in harvest periods, and up to 60 percent during lean periods".
- In 2008, rural households’ top three shocks: water deficit, inflation, and hail.
- Cost of health services is the top reason sick people do not consult health facilities.
- National Social Protection Policy adopted in 2011 with sequenced actions; sector MTEF expected by late 2012.
- Staffs welcome focus on increasing access for poor and vulnerable people to health insurance schemes, while continuing targeted food and basic service assistance with partners.
- Staffs’ recommendations for social protection:
  - give priority to poor workers and the most vulnerable groups;
  - set up an appropriate institutional framework as a first critical step;
  - mobilize funding (domestic and from partners) to select short- and medium-term priorities;
  - ensure cost-efficiency and transparency.

### Gender
- Progress during PRSP-I: women representation in Government "38 percent", National Assembly "32 percent", Senate "46 percent".
- Rural representation limited: "17 percent of hill board members are women", and "5 percent of the 2,615 heads of hills are women".
- Primary education parity achieved; disparities persist in secondary and vocational training.
- Female-headed households are more exposed to shocks; women have more limited access to credit, land, and formal employment.
- Violence against women is rising; 2009 Criminal Code provides harsh punishments against rape and other abuses.
- Staffs’ encouragements:
  - strengthen legal/regulatory frameworks governing inheritance, matrimonial regimes, and gifts (as in the 2011 National Gender Policy);
  - promote greater representation of women in police and army forces;
  - improve women’s participation in transitional justice mechanisms;
  - consider including specific resources in the 2013 budget so each ministerial department addresses priority gender actions.

### Institutional development and governance
- Public institutions undermined by excessive administrative burdens, high turnover of technical staff, and low compensation.
- 2012 National Administrative Reform Plan expected to improve core public sector institutions.
- Suggested priority areas: rationalizing the civil service, updating the census database, and managing the wage bill.
- Government commitment to implement the action plan of the "2011 National Strategy for Good Governance and Anticorruption (NSGGA)".
- Governance indicators (World Bank Institute) deterioration between 2005 and 2010 for three of six indicators: voice and accountability, rule of law, and control of corruption; regulatory quality, government effectiveness, and political stability on a slow rise from very low levels.
- Recent reports highlight remaining issues in corruption and justice courts.
- Staffs encourage:
  - demand-side governance initiatives and strengthening the justice system;
  - greater involvement of citizens (notably women and the poor), service users, and civil society organizations to increase accountability and responsiveness;
  - use of existing local good governance committees;
  - publication of results of NSGGA action plan implementation and dialogue with beneficiaries to agree M&E instruments of good governance.
- Government intends to: (i) rehabilitate the justice system; (ii) implement the transitional justice system; (iii) promote human rights; (iv) strengthen the integrity and capacities of army forces; and (v) reintegrate socioeconomically persons affected by the conflict.

### Public financial management and oversight
- PRSP-II recognizes transparent PFM as key to effective use of public resources.
- Recommendations: strengthen internal and external controls; provide adequate financial resources and technical capacities to institutions such as the Anticorruption Court and Brigade and the Court of Audit; clarify roles of oversight entities and improve coordination.

### Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and statistics
- Current low statistical capacity limits policy development: shortcomings in national accounts, balance of payments compilation, and an outdated household consumption survey used to calculate the consumer price index (the CPI "reflects only the prices prevailing in Bujumbura, the capital of Burundi").
- Planned improvements under the 2010 NSSD expected to help monitor PRSP-II objectives.
- Critical M&E gaps:
  - central MTEF development needed to inform medium-term budget allocation;
  - sector MTEFs for key spending ministries should be finalized by end 2012;
  - need to strengthen capacity of the National Statistical Office and coordination across agencies;
  - carry forward regular population surveys to measure poverty trends.
- Monitoring matrix weaknesses:
  - lack of clear connection between outputs and outcomes;
  - outcome indicators missing baseline and target values for governance, livestock, private sector development, employment and job creation, trade with EAC members, education, health, and monetary poverty;
  - no indicator for disaster risk reduction or climate change adaptation.
- Staffs encourage completing the monitoring matrix promptly, notably by incorporating information from the health and consumption surveys of end 2012, and clarifying the results chain (activities/inputs → outputs/outcomes).

### Conclusion, risks, and priority recommendations
- Staffs welcome PRSP-II as comprehensive and ambitious but in need of further prioritization.
- Strategy aims:
  - (i) transforming the economy for rapid job-creating growth and food security;
  - (ii) making growth more inclusive and sensitive to vulnerable groups;
  - (iii) realizing the potential of the population with a thriving private sector by increasing trade with neighbors;
  - (iv) developing institutions to improve governance and the quality of services.
- Learning from PRSP-I via APRs and final evaluation informed gap analysis and stakeholder ownership through sector and provincial consultations.
- Key risks and fiscal considerations:
  - fragile social and economic situation with weak institutions and near absence of checks and balances;
  - aid inflows projected to decline over the next few years due to fiscal crisis in traditional donor countries and possible reduced urgency given improved security—this trend should be carefully evaluated and contingency plans considered to avoid fiscal slippages.
- Debt and fiscal policy advice:
  - Burundi classified at high risk of debt distress; government encouraged to adopt prudent fiscal policy and careful debt management;
  - commit to rely on grants or highly concessional loans for public investments;
  - extend programmatic approach and professional use of MTEFs in public administration.
- Implementation priorities emphasized by staffs:
  - further prioritization and improved monitoring matrix to aid implementation, notably in private sector development and infrastructure;
  - select infrastructure projects based on cost-benefit analyses given generalized deficiencies;
  - finalize the ongoing update of the monitoring matrix and MTEFs as scheduled;
  - improve education services including technical training programs and adopt a national assessment of learning achievement;
  - enhance agricultural productivity and better target subsidy schemes to improve small-scale irrigation, diversify rural production, and coordinate subsidy programs (e.g., food aid, housing materials, health care, school feeding) for cost-effectiveness and coverage of the most vulnerable.

*Source: _cr12225 - 23. Staffs support the priority given by the authorities to address population growth.*

### 1. The second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP-II) articulates Burundi’s

### The second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP-II) articulates Burundi’s

### Strategic objectives and structure
- PRSP-II timeframe: 2012-15.
- Four strategic axes:
  - (i) strengthening the rule of law, consolidating good governance, and promoting gender equality;
  - (ii) transforming Burundi’s economy to achieve sustainable and job-creating growth;
  - (iii) improving access to and quality of basic services and strengthening social protection;
  - (iv) promoting environmental and land management to ensure the preservation of the country’s natural assets.
- Expected contribution: successful implementation is expected to contribute to the realization of Burundi’s Vision 2025.

### Sources of growth and sectoral priorities
- Emphasis on modernizing agriculture through value chains (key staple foods, milk and meat) because agriculture accounts for about 90 percent of current employment.
- Export diversification beyond coffee and tea to reduce external vulnerability and promote job creation.
- Growth potential highlighted in mining and tourism sectors.
- Regional integration within East African Community (EAC) viewed as an important channel for enhancing private activity via connective infrastructure and improved business environment.
- Staff recommendation: implement the action plan of the updated Diagnostic Trade Integration Study for stronger reform impact.

### Quick-win interventions and main development challenges
- Quick-win focus: improved access to health, education, and water and sanitation to consolidate the peace dividend and build support for reforms.
- Six identified development and growth challenges:
  - (i) the strong demographic pressure;
  - (ii) the need to intensify agricultural productivity to sustain food security;
  - (iii) the need to increase the efficiency of public spending;
  - (iv) the acceleration of private sector development;
  - (v) energy supply;
  - (vi) the strengthening of institutional capacity.

### Gaps, recommendations on design and monitoring
- Government next steps urged:
  - provide more details on priority reforms and actions, and realistic costing;
  - finalize costing of PRSP-II interventions and reflect them in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF); authorities expected to finalize the PAP-MTEF by late 2012.
- Social policy recommendations:
  - protect social and basic infrastructure expenditures (health, population, education, water, sanitation, housing) against lower than expected financial resources;
  - promote universal access to social and basic services, safety nets for vulnerable groups, and support households affected by disasters and climate change.
- Statistical capacity: implement 2010 National Strategy for Statistical Development (NSSD) and update NSSD Action Plan end-2012 to include two light monitoring surveys (2013 and 2014) and a new household survey (2015).

### Donor coordination and participation
- PRSP-II intended as the reference framework for donor coordination and resource mobilization; authorities consulted development partners on planned financial and technical assistance.
- Staff view: improved coordination and alignment of donor assistance would reduce transaction costs, increase aid predictability, and improve implementation efficiency.
- Consultations held widely (commune/sector levels, private sector, civil society, thematic fora, parliament, economic and social council, local officials, donors). Monitoring and Evaluation Group of the Partners’ Coordination Group (GCP) advised monthly.

### Poverty diagnosis and social indicators
- Latest poverty indicators not updated since 2006.
- Current poverty rate: 67 percent.
- Poverty gap: 23 percent.
- Poverty headcount calculation uses two poverty lines:
  - rural: 524 Burundian Francs or 0.51US$ per head and per day;
  - urban: 677 Burundian Francs or 0.66US$ per head and per day.
- Employment and welfare findings:
  - Poor households are more employed in agriculture and more likely underemployed.
  - On average, households in the poorest quintile work 4 months less than those in the wealthiest quintile.
- Food security metrics:
  - Average yearly staple food production per capita: 120 kg in cereal equivalent;
  - Average annual requirement to meet daily 2100 kcal: 190 kg.
  - Food represents 67 percent of total expenditure; 90 percent of population in rural areas.
- Inflation and purchasing power:
  - High inflation rate around 20 percent since November 2011 has reduced purchasing power, disproportionately impacting poorest households; government has periodically reduced taxes on staple food.
- MDG outlook:
  - Effective PRSP-II implementation expected to help MDG convergence, but very few MDGs likely to be met by 2015.
  - Net primary enrollment could reach 100 percent before 2015 with gender parity due to free primary school fees, but drop-outs expected to remain high.
  - Health and social protection MDGs are not expected to be reached despite progress in specific areas (e.g., HIV/AIDS prevalence).

### Macroeconomic and fiscal framework assessment
- PRSP-II baseline growth scenario: averages 6.9 percent growth over 2012-15 (described as appropriate but optimistic).
- Comparison with IMF ECF-supported program:
  - ECF initially forecasted average growth at 5.1 percent over 2012-15, revised down to 4.2 percent in June 2012.
  - Staffs encourage developing alternative scenarios and contingent plans for lower external financing and/or external shocks given vulnerability to aid inflows and external shocks.
- Revenue and public financial management alignment:
  - PRSP-II aligned with IMF program on revenue mobilization, PFM, and fiscal transparency.
  - Creation of the Burundi Revenue Authority (OBR) in 2009 contributed to a sharp increase in revenue collection.
  - Needed reforms: approval and implementation of income and excise tax laws; streamlining tax exemptions legal framework; adoption of mining legal framework; support to tax administration capacity.
- Fiscal space and public investment:
  - Need to balance recurrent and capital expenditures and provide sufficient outlays for operations and maintenance.
  - Demobilization pace should be evaluated in light of security situation and private sector absorption capacity; the wage bill carries structural rigidities as cost of securing peace.
- Debt position:
  - Burundi classified at high risk of debt distress; authorities committed to rely on grants or highly concessional loans.
  - As a country at high risk of debt distress, all Burundi’s external financing are expected to be concessional at a level of at least 50 percent.
- PFM improvements: recent IMF 2011 ex-post assessment and March 2012 PEFA recognize improvements; development of a new PFM strategy ongoing.

### Governance, procurement, and transparency
- PRSP-II emphasizes improving transparency of public tendering to strengthen governance and accountability and maintain public and donor support for PRSP-II delivery.

### Foundations for stable and inclusive growth
- Private sector development focus: better infrastructure, improved business climate, skills development, and financial inclusion; strong emphasis on agriculture given rain-fed subsistence character and narrow export base (coffee and tea).
- Electricity:
  - Electricity access: only 5 percent of households have access to electricity.
  - Demand is twice as large as supply.
  - Government plans to double electricity supply by 2016 through PPPs; staffs welcome plans but caution due to fragile debt situation and need for very concessional loans.
  - Staffs encourage reforms to redress National Electricity and Water Company financial situation via sustainable cost-recovery, continued regional integration, adaptation of legal framework, and feasibility of divestiture strategy.
- Investment climate priorities:
  - Ease access to credit, facilitate tax compliance, simplify registration and trade procedures.
  - Implement trade agreements (one-stop border posts) with EAC neighbors to reduce delays and transaction costs.
  - Promote special economic zones (SEZ) to foster agglomeration effects and improve infrastructure access (energy, ICT, logistics).
- Human capital and labor quality:
  - Introduce a national assessment of learning achievement to guide resource allocation.
  - Implement new “fundamental education” curriculum in primary school to increase literacy and learning performance.
  - Align technical and professional education with private sector needs using recommendations of a recent study on the deficit of skills.
- Financial access and property rights:
  - Implement recommendations from the 2008 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) and the 2011 Financial Sector Development Strategy (FSDS).
  - MSMEs lack access to credit due to poor guarantees, limited information, and weak capacity to comply with financial institutions.
  - Encourage financial sector to develop innovative products and offer training programs to small investors.
  - Establish clear and secure property rights (including land) to address inconsistent laws and poor application.

### Agriculture, rural development, and targets
- Role of agriculture, livestock and fishery development emphasized; National Plan of Agricultural Investment (PNIA 2012-2017) details structural reforms to raise production:
  - (i) promote techniques that restore and preserve soil fertility;
  - (ii) encourage efficient water management and small-scaled irrigation;
  - (iii) increase average farm size from 0.5 hectare to 1 hectare.
- Agricultural transformation approach: promote value chains for diversified export crops, selected staple foods (cassava and beans), oleaginous crops (palm oil), milk and meat, and sugarcane.
- Government commitment: reduce its role in the coffee sector; cotton sector plans unclear.
- Staff advice: consider making Burundi a seed multiplier and seed distribution center for EAC.

*Source: IMF staff assessment of Burundi’s PRSP-II (Content unit: _cr12225 - 1. The second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP-II) articulates Burundi’s).*

### 23. Staffs support the priority given by the authorities to address population growth

### 23. Staffs support the priority given by the authorities to address population growth

### Population and social development challenges
- Rapid population growth: "3 percent in recent years".
- High fertility: "6.4 children per women".
- Impacts identified: land fragmentation and conflicts, food security, poverty reduction, and universal access to social services.
- Human Development Index ranking: "185 out of 187 countries by the UNDP’s Human Development Index in 2011".

### Education
- Free primary education increased enrollment but quality/achievement shortcomings remain.
- Literacy: "40.5 percent" of the population; gender disparity: "35 percent for women and 47 percent for men".
- Government initiative: introduction of the “fundamental school” to shift primary education duration from "6 years" to "9 years".
- Updating of the "2009-2016 Sector Development Plan for Education and Training (PSDEF)" with donor support.
- Staff recommendation: use reliable planning and costing approaches to improve expenditure efficiency while implementing the new primary education approach.

### Health
- MDG outlook: country unlikely to meet MDG targets despite improvements.
- Immunization coverage: "83-90 percent".
- Free health services for under-five children and pregnant women.
- Maternal mortality: "499 per 100,000 live births in 2010".
- Under-five mortality: "96 per 1,000 live births in 2010 and 167 per 1,000 live births in 2005".
- Malaria incidence: rose from "26 percent in 2005 to 34 percent in 2010".
- Insecticide-treated mosquito net usage: "44 percent of households".
- Deliveries assisted by qualified staff: increased from "34 percent" in 2005 to "60 percent" in 2010.
- Contraceptive use rates: "11.4 percent in 2008, 14 percent in 2009, and 18 percent in 2010".
- Staffs conclude universal access to reproductive health by 2015 is unlikely.
- Staffs’ agreed priorities to improve equity and quality of care:
  - (i) improving the functionality of existing infrastructure to provide adequate health care to the whole population;
  - (ii) strengthening the performance-based financing (FBP) and free care policies by ensuring the financial sustainability of the system;
  - (iii) providing better health insurance to the rural population and vulnerable groups through both community mutual associations for health and the promotion of the Health Insurance Card (CAM).

### Water and sanitation
- Urban access to safe drinking water: increased from "80 percent in 2005 to 85 percent in 2010".
- Main water source: Tanganyika Lake (noted as increasingly polluted with potential costly treatment and higher tariffs).
- Rural access to safe drinking water: "63 percent of the population in 2005 and 74 percent in 2010", with over "69 percent of water points being in working conditions".
- Time burden: women and children spend an average of "2 hours a day" on water fetching tasks, negatively affecting school attendance and girls’ performance.
- Government actions: new water tariff adopted; plans to explore options to improve sector financial viability.
- Staffs support expansion of access, highlighting need for further rural improvements.

### Social protection and food security
- Rural food insecurity: affects about "30 percent of the population in harvest periods, and up to 60 percent during lean periods".
- In 2008, rural households’ top three shocks: water deficit, inflation, and hail.
- Cost of health services is the top reason sick people do not consult health facilities.
- National Social Protection Policy adopted in 2011 with sequenced actions; sector MTEF expected by late 2012.
- Staffs welcome focus on increasing access for poor and vulnerable people to health insurance schemes, while continuing targeted food and basic service assistance with partners.
- Staffs’ recommendations for social protection:
  - give priority to poor workers and the most vulnerable groups;
  - set up an appropriate institutional framework as a first critical step;
  - mobilize funding (domestic and from partners) to select short- and medium-term priorities;
  - ensure cost-efficiency and transparency.

### Gender
- Progress during PRSP-I: women representation in Government "38 percent", National Assembly "32 percent", Senate "46 percent".
- Rural representation limited: "17 percent of hill board members are women", and "5 percent of the 2,615 heads of hills are women".
- Primary education parity achieved; disparities persist in secondary and vocational training.
- Female-headed households are more exposed to shocks; women have more limited access to credit, land, and formal employment.
- Violence against women is rising; 2009 Criminal Code provides harsh punishments against rape and other abuses.
- Staffs’ encouragements:
  - strengthen legal/regulatory frameworks governing inheritance, matrimonial regimes, and gifts (as in the 2011 National Gender Policy);
  - promote greater representation of women in police and army forces;
  - improve women’s participation in transitional justice mechanisms;
  - consider including specific resources in the 2013 budget so each ministerial department addresses priority gender actions.

### Institutional development and governance
- Public institutions undermined by excessive administrative burdens, high turnover of technical staff, and low compensation.
- 2012 National Administrative Reform Plan expected to improve core public sector institutions.
- Suggested priority areas: rationalizing the civil service, updating the census database, and managing the wage bill.
- Government commitment to implement the action plan of the "2011 National Strategy for Good Governance and Anticorruption (NSGGA)".
- Governance indicators (World Bank Institute) deterioration between 2005 and 2010 for three of six indicators: voice and accountability, rule of law, and control of corruption; regulatory quality, government effectiveness, and political stability on a slow rise from very low levels.
- Recent reports highlight remaining issues in corruption and justice courts.
- Staffs encourage:
  - demand-side governance initiatives and strengthening the justice system;
  - greater involvement of citizens (notably women and the poor), service users, and civil society organizations to increase accountability and responsiveness;
  - use of existing local good governance committees;
  - publication of results of NSGGA action plan implementation and dialogue with beneficiaries to agree M&E instruments of good governance.
- Government intends to: (i) rehabilitate the justice system; (ii) implement the transitional justice system; (iii) promote human rights; (iv) strengthen the integrity and capacities of army forces; and (v) reintegrate socioeconomically persons affected by the conflict.

### Public financial management and oversight
- PRSP-II recognizes transparent PFM as key to effective use of public resources.
- Recommendations: strengthen internal and external controls; provide adequate financial resources and technical capacities to institutions such as the Anticorruption Court and Brigade and the Court of Audit; clarify roles of oversight entities and improve coordination.

### Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and statistics
- Current low statistical capacity limits policy development: shortcomings in national accounts, balance of payments compilation, and an outdated household consumption survey used to calculate the consumer price index (the CPI "reflects only the prices prevailing in Bujumbura, the capital of Burundi").
- Planned improvements under the 2010 NSSD expected to help monitor PRSP-II objectives.
- Critical M&E gaps:
  - central MTEF development needed to inform medium-term budget allocation;
  - sector MTEFs for key spending ministries should be finalized by end 2012;
  - need to strengthen capacity of the National Statistical Office and coordination across agencies;
  - carry forward regular population surveys to measure poverty trends.
- Monitoring matrix weaknesses:
  - lack of clear connection between outputs and outcomes;
  - outcome indicators missing baseline and target values for governance, livestock, private sector development, employment and job creation, trade with EAC members, education, health, and monetary poverty;
  - no indicator for disaster risk reduction or climate change adaptation.
- Staffs encourage completing the monitoring matrix promptly, notably by incorporating information from the health and consumption surveys of end 2012, and clarifying the results chain (activities/inputs → outputs/outcomes).

### Conclusion, risks, and priority recommendations
- Staffs welcome PRSP-II as comprehensive and ambitious but in need of further prioritization.
- Strategy aims:
  - (i) transforming the economy for rapid job-creating growth and food security;
  - (ii) making growth more inclusive and sensitive to vulnerable groups;
  - (iii) realizing the potential of the population with a thriving private sector by increasing trade with neighbors;
  - (iv) developing institutions to improve governance and the quality of services.
- Learning from PRSP-I via APRs and final evaluation informed gap analysis and stakeholder ownership through sector and provincial consultations.
- Key risks and fiscal considerations:
  - fragile social and economic situation with weak institutions and near absence of checks and balances;
  - aid inflows projected to decline over the next few years due to fiscal crisis in traditional donor countries and possible reduced urgency given improved security—this trend should be carefully evaluated and contingency plans considered to avoid fiscal slippages.
- Debt and fiscal policy advice:
  - Burundi classified at high risk of debt distress; government encouraged to adopt prudent fiscal policy and careful debt management;
  - commit to rely on grants or highly concessional loans for public investments;
  - extend programmatic approach and professional use of MTEFs in public administration.
- Implementation priorities emphasized by staffs:
  - further prioritization and improved monitoring matrix to aid implementation, notably in private sector development and infrastructure;
  - select infrastructure projects based on cost-benefit analyses given generalized deficiencies;
  - finalize the ongoing update of the monitoring matrix and MTEFs as scheduled;
  - improve education services including technical training programs and adopt a national assessment of learning achievement;
  - enhance agricultural productivity and better target subsidy schemes to improve small-scale irrigation, diversify rural production, and coordinate subsidy programs (e.g., food aid, housing materials, health care, school feeding) for cost-effectiveness and coverage of the most vulnerable.

*Source: _cr12225 - 23. Staffs support the priority given by the authorities to address population growth*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/_cr12225.pdf_