## _cr12332

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---

### Executive Summary — Socio‑political context
- Socio‑political situation: improved but "remains fragile."
- All key institutions became operational after inaugural session of Parliament in March 2012.
- National reconciliation: limited progress since April 2011 post‑election crisis; high population expectations for quick living‑condition improvements.
- Security: "deteriorated somewhat" since August 2012 with attacks on army barracks, police stations, checkpoints, and a power plant; authorities tightened security measures and created a National Security Council chaired by the President. Restructuring of the new army underway.

### Executive Summary — Recent economic developments and outlook
- Growth and inflation:
  - GDP: expected increase of 8.6 percent in 2012.
  - Staff real GDP growth projection for 2013: 8.0 percent.
  - Authorities expect growth of 9 percent in 2013 and stabilization at 10 percent over the medium term.
  - Inflation: modest through August; expected to remain below 2 percent for 2012.
- External sector and imports:
  - Imports through August 2012: 30 percent above 2010 level.
  - Imports of capital and intermediate goods: 50 percent above 2010 level.
  - Lower cocoa and oil exports plus higher imports → current account deficit in 2012 (first after many surplus years).
  - Capital outflows/errors and omissions decreased—likely reduced capital flight.
- Fiscal performance (end‑June 2012):
  - Revenue exceeded program target by 1.1 percentage point of GDP.
  - Corporate income tax performed better than expected.
  - Expenditures, including investment, within programmed envelope; domestically‑financed investment exceeded target; externally‑financed investment executed at lower rate.
  - Pro‑poor spending increased; wage bill contained.
  - All end‑June quantitative performance criteria observed.
- Structural benchmarks:
  - 11 out of 17 structural benchmarks through end‑September under program met on time.
  - Reforms implemented: public pension system; cocoa sector reform completed for fall 2012 harvest.
  - Lagging reforms concentrated in energy sector: 5 out of 6 missed benchmarks.
  - Government intends to adopt an automatic pricing mechanism for petroleum products in mid‑November and implement it by end‑March 2013.
- External debt relief and HIPC completion point (end‑June 2012):
  - Total debt reduction in present value terms: $7.7 billion, consisting of:
    - $3.1 billion enhanced HIPC debt relief,
    - $3.3 billion additional Paris Club relief,
    - $1.3 billion MDRI multilateral relief.
  - Bilateral debt relief agreements signed by end‑October with Austria, Belgium, Canada, France and Switzerland.

### Growth outlook and scenarios
- Staff baseline:
  - Projects 8.0 percent real GDP growth in 2013—driven by carry‑over momentum, identified external financing for 2013 budget and PPP projects, and strong foreign investor interest.
  - Growth expected to remain strong but lower than 2012–13 as public investment crowds in private investment.
- Authorities’ medium‑term (PND 2012–15) numeric targets:
  - Real GDP growth targets: 9 percent in 2013; 10 percent in 2014; 10.1 percent in 2015.
  - Public investment target: increase to 9.7 percent of GDP by 2015 (vs 3 percent of GDP average 2006–10).
  - Current expenditure projected to decline by about 3 percent of GDP between 2012 and 2015.
  - Overall fiscal deficit (including grants) projected at about 3.7 percent of GDP in 2014–15.
  - Private sector investment projected to reach 13.7 percent of GDP by 2015 from about 6 percent in 2010.
  - Donors’ conference in Paris early December 2012 to secure financing for PND estimated at about CFAF 11 076 billion (about $21 billion) over 4 years.
- Key downside risk: slow/cautious private sector participation yielding slower growth than authorities expect.

### Fiscal outlook: 2012–2013 (summary)
- Overall deficit:
  - Projected to decline from 4.4 to 4.3 percent of GDP in 2012.
  - Projected to narrow from -4.3 percent of GDP in 2012 to -2.9 percent of GDP in 2013.
- Revenues and investment:
  - Revenues in 2013 projected to increase by 0.2 percent of GDP relative to 2012; consistent with staff’s 8 percent growth scenario.
  - Investment expected to increase to 7.5 percent of GDP in 2013 (from 5.4 percent in 2012).
    - Externally‑financed investment: 1 percent of GDP in 2012 → 3.3 percent of GDP in 2013.
    - Domestically‑financed investment to edge slightly down relative to GDP.
- 2012 revenue improvements total 1.1 percent of GDP, driven by:
  - corporate income tax: 0.4 percent of GDP,
  - oil revenue: 0.4 percent of GDP,
  - grants: 0.2 percent of GDP higher.
- Electricity sector fiscal costs:
  - Gas subsidy: 0.9 percent of GDP in 2011; renegotiation expected to contain 2012 impact to around 0.5 percent of GDP; heavy fuel recourse added 0.6 percent of GDP cost to 2012 budget.
  - Government support to electricity sector expected to fall to around 0.6 percent of GDP in 2013.

### Electricity and petroleum pricing reforms
- Electricity sector policy actions:
  - Adopted comprehensive strategy to bring electricity sector to financial equilibrium (adopted mid‑November 2012).
  - Move high‑volume consumers out of social tariff in early 2013.
  - Implement average 5 percent consumer tariff increase in mid‑2013.
  - Adopt Electricity Code to improve bill collection and prosecute fraud.
  - Scale up grid maintenance, fight fraud, and increase capacity via PPPs and new hydro/gas plants.
  - Social impact assessment (with World Bank) to inform mitigation and safety nets.
- Petroleum products:
  - Automatic pricing mechanism (APM) to be adopted mid‑November and implemented by end‑March 2013.
  - Fixed retail prices caused a 50 percent decline in taxes collected on petroleum products between 2010 and 2012.
  - Tax expenditures on fuel products currently estimated at around 1 percent of GDP.
  - Liquid petroleum product prices to be adjusted by up to CFAF 15 per liter by end‑November to finance cooking gas subsidy deficit.
  - APM intended to share international price risk with end‑users, reduce implicit fuel subsidies, and reallocate resources to pro‑poor spending.

### Structural reforms, public banks, and arrears
- Public banks:
  - Audits expected to conclude by end‑November 2012.
  - Restructuring strategy adopted spring 2012 to be fully implemented in 2013.
  - Financial Sector Development Strategy scheduled for completion and implementation in 2013.
- Domestic arrears:
  - No accumulation of new arrears to suppliers in recent years; reduction of previously accumulated arrears.
  - Ongoing audit to validate non‑financial sector claims on government; plan to actively manage and negotiate restructuring of domestic financial debt claims.
  - Government target: net reduction in government amounts payable by CFAF 25 billion in 2013.
- Wage bill:
  - Contained and targeted at 7.5 percent of GDP in 2013.
  - Wage bill strategy to be finalized by end‑January (following consultations) and addressed within the tripartite social forum.

### Program financing, nonconcessional borrowing windows, and IMF support
- Financing for 2013 program:
  - Sufficient financing expected; financing gap to be financed primarily from domestic market.
  - Bulk external funding expected from C2D operation with AFD and December 2012 Consultative Group meeting.
  - Other external financing to rely primarily on grants or concessional loans from World Bank, AfDB, Islamic Development Bank, EU; some nonconcessional financing might be needed.
  - Government seeks to lengthen and smooth maturity profile of domestic/regional market debt.
- New nonconcessional windows requested for 2013:
  - New small window equal to 0.39 percent of GDP.
  - Increase existing window by 0.18 percent of GDP to a regional development bank (BOAD).
- IMF ECF support and disbursement:
  - Letter requests SDR 65.04 million under ECF.
  - IMF Executive Board completed the second review under the ECF and approved a disbursement equivalent to SDR 65.04 million (about US$99.8 million).

### Debt relief, DSA conclusions, and debt strategy
- HIPC completion point (June 26, 2012) benefits:
  - Total benefit: CFAF 4,090 billion, or 64.2 percent of external debt (source references: multiple sections).
  - Debt relief composition in present value terms: $7.7 billion total (see Executive Summary).
- DSA (IMF‑World Bank) baseline and key findings:
  - Côte d’Ivoire remains at a moderate risk of debt distress (assessment unchanged from June 2012).
  - DSA includes almost US$250 million of additional nonconcessional borrowing over 2013–14 (0.57 percent of GDP in 2013; 0.35 percent of GDP in 2014).
  - PV of PPG debt‑to‑GDP indicator: in 2012 it is 4 percentage points above the policy threshold (reflecting revised end‑2012 debt stock and lower discount rate).
  - Under baseline, external debt and debt service indicators remain below indicative thresholds throughout projection period with a short‑lived exception.
  - Stress tests show temporary breaches of thresholds under many shocks; combination shocks can produce more persistent breaches.
- Debt strategy objectives and limits:
  - Objectives: lower refinancing risk by converting domestic debt into medium/long‑term debt; favor concessional external borrowing; develop domestic market with medium maturities; minimize costs/risks.
  - Institutional actions: adopt debt strategy by mid‑2013; reorganize debt management unit into front/middle/back offices.
  - Nonconcessional borrowing limits: cumulative ceiling of USD 100 million by end‑2013 and USD 200 million by end‑2014 (infrastructure/energy projects); government will consult IMF staff and provide project evaluations.

### Program monitoring, conditionality, and reporting
- Performance criteria and structural benchmarks:
  - PCs include: floor on overall fiscal balance (including grants); ceiling on net domestic financing (including WAEMU paper); ceiling on new nonconcessional external debt; zero ceiling on new external and domestic arrears.
  - Indicative targets include: floor on primary basic balance; ceiling on expenditures by treasury advance; floor on pro‑poor expenditures; floor on net reduction of government amounts payable; floor on total government revenue.
  - TMU dated November 13, 2012 sets reporting, adjustors, and ceilings; PCs/ITs calculated as cumulative changes from Dec 31, 2011 (2012 targets) and Dec 31, 2012 (2013 targets).
- Reporting requirements:
  - Quarterly assessment reports within 45 days of quarter end.
  - Monthly reporting of specified data within 45 days of month‑end or quarter‑end.
  - BCEAO to report final data within 45 days of period end; authorities to report a wide set of fiscal, monetary, arrears, debt and sectoral tables (detailed list preserved in source).
- Structural benchmarks status (selected):
  - Met: register at least 30 percent of custom frauds in IT system by end‑June 2012; SIGFAE implementation (SB end‑2012); adopt strategy for restructuring public enterprises and public banks (SB end‑June 2012); cocoa sector price agreement (SB end‑September 2012).
  - Not met / rescheduled: petroleum pricing review and implementation; several electricity sector items (mixed status).
- Prior actions completed in energy sector:
  - Adopt new automatic fuel pricing mechanism;
  - Adopt comprehensive strategy to bring electricity sector to financial equilibrium.

### Risks, contingent exposures, and mitigation
- Program risks:
  - Uncertainties on pace of private sector investment realization.
  - Recent security incidents and Mali crisis increasing socio‑political fragility.
  - Possible decline in cocoa prices.
  - Potential further significant rise in crude oil prices.
  - Weakening global environment impeding FDI and aid flows.
- Contingent fiscal exposures:
  - Use of PPPs could create additional fiscal risks if projects lack financial/economic viability or large sovereign guarantees are provided without implementation capacity.
- Staff view: risks manageable but require vigilant debt management, conservative revenue projections, and prioritization of reforms (particularly energy and public bank restructuring).

### Key macroeconomic projections and selected indicators (2010–17 excerpts)
- GDP at constant prices (annual % changes): 2.4; -4.7; 8.1; 8.6; 6.2; 8.0; 7.3; 7.0; 6.7; 6.5.
- Consumer price index (annual average): 1.4; 4.9; 2.0; 2.0; 2.5; 2.5; 2.5; 2.5; 2.5; 2.5.
- Current account balance (including official transfers, percent of GDP): 2.4; 9.4; -2.8; -3.2; -3.0; -3.4; -3.8; -3.7; -4.1; -4.5.
- Gross public debt (percent of GDP): 66.4; 71.2; 64.9; 49.5; 64.1; 45.7; 43.8; 42.5; 41.1; 40.0.
- Money and quasi‑money (M2) growth (percent changes): 19.0; 12.5; 15.4; 20.4; 11.5; 12.5; 9.9; 9.0; 8.8; 8.9.
- Fiscal levels (Billions CFAF): Total revenue and grants: 2,236.6; 1,725.9; 2,409.8; 2,553.9; 2,760.0; 2,988.5; 3,318.1; 3,629.0; 3,964.1; 4,348.5.
- Capital expenditure (percent of GDP): 3.1; 3.4; 5.3; 5.4; 5.6; 7.5; 7.7; 8.1; 8.0; 8.1.

### Staff appraisal and recommendations (summary)
- Program performance in 2012: broadly satisfactory; all performance criteria and indicative targets through end‑June 2012 met.
- Staff welcomes conservative revenue projections in 2013 budget aligned with staff’s growth projections to avoid understating financing needs and to reflect cocoa tax reduction due to HIPC triggers.
- Staff recommends:
  - completion of second review under the ECF arrangement and of the financing assurances review;
  - modification of end‑December 2012 performance criteria (floor on overall fiscal balance; ceiling on net domestic financing);
  - establishment of new performance criteria for end‑June 2013;
  - close implementation of energy sector reforms (including full implementation of APM by end‑March 2013) and public bank restructuring;
  - careful use of nonconcessional borrowing and rigorous PPP evaluation and monitoring.

*Source: Executive Summary and selected sections from IMF Country Report content unit _cr12332.*

### Executive Summary ......................................................................................................

### Executive Summary

### Socio-Political Context
- The socio-political situation has improved but "remains fragile."
- All key institutions of the Republic became operational after the inaugural session of Parliament in March 2012.
- Progress toward national reconciliation since the end of the post-election crisis in April 2011 has been limited; population expectations for quick improvements in living conditions are high.
- Security has "deteriorated somewhat" since August 2012 with attacks on army barracks, police stations, checkpoints, and a power plant; authorities tightened security measures and created a National Security Council chaired by the President. Restructuring of the new army is underway.

### Recent Economic Developments and Outlook
- Growth and inflation
  - GDP is now expected to increase by 8.6 percent in 2012 (rebound after 2011 contraction).
  - The staff revised its real GDP growth projection for 2013 to 8.0 percent.
  - Authorities expect growth of 9 percent in 2013 and stabilization at 10 percent over the medium term (authorities’ medium-term outlook).
  - Inflation was modest through August and is expected to remain below 2 percent for 2012.
- External sector and imports
  - Imports through August 2012 are 30 percent above their 2010 level.
  - Imports of capital and intermediate goods are 50 percent above their 2010 level.
  - Lower cocoa and oil exports combined with higher imports are expected to lead to a current account deficit in 2012—the first after many surplus years.
  - Capital outflows/errors and omissions have decreased, probably reflecting reduced capital flight as confidence returns.
- Fiscal performance
  - The fiscal outcome at end-June 2012 was better than programmed.
  - Revenue exceeded the program target by 1.1 percentage point of GDP; corporate income tax performed better than expected.
  - Expenditures, including investment, were within the programmed envelope; domestically-financed investment exceeded its target while externally-financed investment was executed at a lower rate.
  - Pro-poor spending continued to increase; the wage bill was contained.
  - All end-June quantitative performance criteria were observed.
- Monetary and financial indicators (summary of figures)
  - Growth in broad money expected to remain strong in 2012 as the banking system resumes lending to the private sector.
  - The real effective exchange rate has recently moved alongside Euro/US Dollar fluctuations.
- Structural benchmarks and reform progress
  - 11 out of the 17 structural benchmarks through end-September under the program were met on time.
  - Reforms implemented: public pension system; cocoa sector reform completed in time for fall 2012 harvest.
  - Progress ongoing: debt management and restructuring of public banks.
  - Lagging reforms: energy sector—5 out of 6 missed structural benchmarks are in the energy sector.
  - Government intends to adopt an automatic pricing mechanism for petroleum products in mid-November and is committed to implementing it by end-March 2013.
- External debt relief and HIPC
  - After reaching the enhanced HIPC completion point at end-June 2012, Côte d’Ivoire would benefit from $7.7 billion in total debt reduction in present value terms, consisting of:
    - $3.1 billion in enhanced HIPC debt relief,
    - $3.3 billion in additional relief from the Paris Club official bilateral creditors,
    - $1.3 billion in debt relief from multilateral creditors under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative.
  - Bilateral debt relief agreements had been signed as of end-October with Austria, Belgium, Canada, France and Switzerland; authorities are contacting other official bilateral and multilateral creditors.

### Policy Discussions — Growth Outlook for 2013 and Beyond
- Staff outlook and assumptions
  - Staff projects 8.0 percent real GDP growth in 2013 reflecting: carry-over momentum from late 2012; strong progress in identifying external financing for the 2013 budget and PPP projects; marked interest from foreign investors.
  - Growth performance is expected to remain strong, though at a lower level than 2012–13, as public investment helps crowd in private investment.
- Authorities’ medium-term outlook (PND 2012–15) — key numeric targets and assumptions
  - Real GDP growth targets: 9 percent in 2013, 10 percent in 2014, 10.1 percent in 2015.
  - Public investment target: increase to 9.7 percent of GDP by 2015 (against 3 percent of GDP on average over 2006–10).
  - Total revenues (excluding grants) projected to remain broadly unchanged as a share of GDP; current expenditure projected to decline by about 3 percent of GDP between 2012 and 2015.
  - Overall fiscal deficit (including grants) projected at about 3.7 percent of GDP in 2014–15 to accommodate higher capital spending.
  - Private sector investment projected to reach 13.7 percent of GDP by 2015 from about 6 percent of GDP in 2010.
  - Donors’ conference scheduled in Paris in early December 2012 to secure financing for the National Development Plan estimated at about CFAF 11 076 billion (about $21 billion) over 4 years.
- Authorities’ and staff scenarios/risks
  - Authorities expect a quick and strong private sector response and higher growth than staff; sluggish private sector response would yield slower growth than projected.
  - Key downside risk: slow and cautious participation of the private sector in the economic revival.

### Policy Discussions — Fiscal Policy (as discussed)
- 2013 budget stance and composition
  - Revenue assumptions are described as prudent and in line with staff growth projections.
  - Current expenditure is contained to make room for higher public investment, given potential tightness in access to domestic financing.
- Financing and program adjustments requested
  - A minor modification of end-December 2012 performance criteria is requested on:
    - the floor on the overall fiscal balance, and
    - the ceiling on net domestic financing.
  - For 2013, the authorities requested:
    - establishment of a new small nonconcessional borrowing window equal to 0.39 percent of GDP, and
    - an increase of an existing window by 0.18 percent of GDP to a regional development bank.

### Structural Reforms: Progress, Shortfalls, and Priorities
- Achievements
  - Pension reform implemented.
  - Cocoa sector reform completed on time for fall 2012 harvest.
  - Ongoing progress in debt management and restructuring of public banks.
- Shortfalls and corrective measures
  - Energy sector reforms lagged: 5 out of 6 missed structural benchmarks are in the energy sector.
  - Government taking corrective measures and intends to adopt an automatic pricing mechanism for petroleum products mid-November and implement by end-March 2013.

### Program Monitoring, Financing and Risks
- Program performance was broadly satisfactory overall.
- All end-June quantitative targets were met.
- Risks are present but judged "manageable" with the main downside risk linked to private sector participation.
- Staff recommends:
  - completion of the second review under the ECF arrangement,
  - modification of performance criteria for end-December 2012,
  - establishment of new performance criteria for end-June 2013,
  - conduct of the financing assurances review.

*Source: Executive Summary (IMF country report content provided in the supplied PDF content).*

### 9. The projected fiscal deficit for 2012 is expected to edge

### 9. The projected fiscal deficit for 2012 is expected to edge

### Fiscal outlook: 2012–2013
- Overall deficit projected to decline from 4.4 to 4.3 percent of GDP in 2012.
- Overall fiscal deficit projected to narrow from -4.3 percent of GDP in 2012 to -2.9 percent of GDP in 2013.
- Revenues in 2013 are projected to increase by 0.2 percent of GDP relative to 2012 and are fully consistent with the staff’s 8 percent growth scenario.
- Investment is expected to increase to 7.5 percent of GDP in 2013 (from 5.4 percent in 2012).
  - Externally-financed investment to expand from 1 percent of GDP in 2012 to 3.3 percent of GDP in 2013.
  - Domestically-financed investment would edge slightly down relative to GDP.

### Revenues and expenditures: drivers of the 2012 revision and 2013 assumptions
- 2012 revenue improvements total 1.1 percent of GDP, driven mainly by:
  - corporate income tax: 0.4 percent of GDP,
  - oil revenue: 0.4 percent of GDP,
  - grants: 0.2 percent of GDP higher.
- Higher expenditure in 2012 largely due to increased electricity subsidies; overall subsidies to the electricity sector rose to 1.1 percent of GDP in 2012.
- Cocoa revenue in 2013 projected to fall despite expected higher international prices because the authorities reduced the net tax intake from cocoa.
  - The net tax reduction on cocoa equals 0.3 percent of GDP (reflecting the government’s commitment to pass at least 60 percent of c.i.f. export cocoa prices on to farmers).
- Government oil revenue expected to decrease in 2013 as international prices decline slightly and the government’s share of oil output is reduced following partners’ recovery of 2012 investment costs.
- Grants in 2013 expected to increase by a total of 1.3 percent of GDP:
  - French debt-for-development swap (“C2D”): additional 0.6 percent of GDP,
  - other partners: additional 0.7 percent of GDP.
- Current expenditure relative to GDP expected to decline in 2013.
  - Wage bill contained to 7.5 percent of GDP in 2013.
- Expenditure restraint also reflects:
  - halving of projected net domestic borrowing in 2013,
  - shift to recording debt service on an after debt relief basis following the enhanced HIPC completion point.

### Electricity sector: fiscal cost and reform measures (Box 2 and main text)
- Government support to the electricity sector:
  - gas subsidy reached 0.9 percent of GDP in 2011,
  - renegotiation of gas prices expected to contain 2012 impact to around 0.5 percent of GDP,
  - heavy fuel recourse added a further 0.6 percent of GDP cost to the 2012 budget.
- Government support to the sector expected to fall back to around 0.6 percent of GDP in 2013.
- Policy actions and reforms:
  - comprehensive strategy to bring the electricity sector back to financial equilibrium (adopted mid-November 2012),
  - move high volume consumers out of the social tariff in early 2013,
  - implement an average 5 percent increase in the consumer tariff in mid-2013,
  - adopt the Electricity Code to improve bill collection and prosecute fraud,
  - scale up grid maintenance and fight against fraud to reduce technical and commercial losses,
  - increase capacity through PPPs with independent power producers and new hydropower and gas plants,
  - social impact assessment (with World Bank) to inform targeted mitigation and social safety nets.

### Pricing and subsidy reforms beyond electricity
- Automatic pricing mechanism (APM) for petroleum products to be adopted in mid-November and implemented by end-March 2013.
  - Fixed retail prices led to a 50 percent decline in taxes collected on petroleum products between 2010 and 2012.
  - Tax expenditures on fuel products currently estimated at around 1 percent of GDP.
  - Liquid petroleum product prices to be adjusted by up to CFAF 15 per liter by end-November to finance the deficit of the cooking gas subsidy mechanism.
  - APM implementation intended to share international price risk with end-users, reduce implicit fuel subsidies, and reallocate resources to pro-poor spending.

### Structural reforms and public sector measures
- Authorities committed to broad reform agenda to stimulate sustained high growth, employment, and private sector engagement; staff encouraged mitigation for social impact where needed.
- Missed six structural benchmarks (mostly on power sector/fuel pricing); authorities assured timely corrective measures.
- Public banks restructuring:
  - audits expected to conclude by end-November 2012,
  - restructuring strategy adopted in spring 2012 expected to be fully implemented in 2013,
  - Financial Sector Development Strategy to be completed and implemented in 2013.
- Efforts on domestic arrears:
  - no accumulation of new arrears to suppliers in recent years and reduction of previously accumulated arrears,
  - step up efforts to reduce arrears on domestic financial debt, including active management and negotiations to restructure claims,
  - audit underway to validate non-financial sector claims on the government.
- Wage bill strategy to be finalized by end-January following consultations and addressed within the tripartite social forum.

### Program monitoring, financing, and debt management
- Modification of end-December 2012 performance criteria on the floor on overall fiscal balance and ceiling on net domestic financing to reflect revised projections and post-HIPC debt relief estimates.
- New performance criteria proposed for end-June 2013, including a new ceiling on nonconcessional external debt; indicative targets set for end-March, end-September, and end-December 2013.
- Government aims to settle remaining arrears on external commercial debt later in the year; arrears clearance proposal presented to Eurobond holders in late October.
- Sufficient financing expected for the 2013 program; financing gap to be financed primarily from the domestic market.
  - Bulk external funding expected from the “C2D” operation with the French Development Agency (AFD) and the planned December 2012 Consultative Group meeting.
  - Other external financing to rely primarily on grants or concessional loans from the World Bank, African Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank, and the European Union; some nonconcessional financing might be needed.
  - Government intends to lengthen and smooth maturity profile of domestic and regional market debt, mobilizing more loans with longer maturities.
  - Government target: net reduction in government amounts payable by CFAF 25 billion in 2013, and meet obligations under securitized debt vis-à-vis financial banks and other financial institutions.
- Proposed small nonconcessional borrowing window for 2013:
  - new small window equivalent to about 0.39 percent of GDP in 2013 to finance some infrastructure and energy projects,
  - increase equivalent to 0.18 percent of GDP in the existing nonconcessional window for BOAD.
  - These ceilings do not jeopardize Côte d’Ivoire’s moderate risk rating of debt distress (per attached updated LIC-DSA).

### Risks and contingent fiscal exposures
- Program risks from domestic and external factors include:
  - uncertainties on pace of private sector investment project realization,
  - recent security incidents and crisis in neighboring Mali increasing socio-political fragility,
  - possible decline in cocoa prices,
  - a further significant rise in crude oil prices,
  - further weakening of the global environment impeding FDI and aid flows.
- Use of PPPs intended to expand infrastructure but may create additional fiscal risks if projects are not financially and economically viable or if large sovereign guarantees are provided without strong implementation capacity.

### Prior actions and near-term commitments
- Authorities completed prior actions in the energy sector: i) adopt a new automatic fuel pricing mechanism; ii) adopt a comprehensive strategy to gradually bring the electricity sector back to financial equilibrium.
- Authorities committed to culling any investment for which external financing cannot be identified or to further restraining overall spending if revenue collection falls short of projections.

### Staff appraisal (summary)
- Program performance in 2012 broadly satisfactory with all performance criteria and indicative targets through end-June 2012 met.
- Government strategy to boost growth through higher public investment contributed to a stronger-than-expected economic rebound in 2012; pro-poor spending has risen steadily.
- Growth outlook through 2013 is favorable but subject to downside risks related to private sector engagement and mobilization of donor and investor financing.
- Staff welcomes conservative revenue projections in the 2013 budget aligned with staff’s growth projections; this prudence aims to avoid understating budget financing needs while recognizing revenue losses from cocoa tax reductions required by HIPC completion point trigger.

*Source: _cr12332 - 9. The projected fiscal deficit for 2012 is expected to edge (PDF chapter/section).*

### 32. The authorities’ prudent budget management and their commitment to execute their

### _cr12332 - 32. The authorities’ prudent budget management and their commitment to execute their

### Budget management, execution, and fiscal risks
- The authorities’ prudent budget management and their commitment to execute their investment budget in line with available resources are welcome.
- Current expenditure growth is already tightly contained; it will be important that pro-poor current spending be fully executed.
- While budget management has been satisfactory over the last few years, the broader public sector shows signs of weaknesses and risks and could be the source of contingent liabilities on the government.
- Staff welcomes the authorities’ intention to regularize outstanding domestic arrears, including through active debt management.

### Energy sector reforms, subsidies, and pricing mechanisms
- Staff supports the authorities’ renewed commitment to accelerate structural reforms, particularly in the energy sector, so as to limit fiscal risks and sustain pro-poor spending.
- Electricity and fuel subsidies have grown significantly in 2012.
- Policy steps recommended for 2013:
  - Move high volume electricity customers from the social tariff to the regular tariff.
  - Increase electricity tariffs by 5 percent on average in 2013.
  - Implement the newly adopted fuel pricing mechanism in 2013.
- Staff urges the authorities to fully implement the automatic pricing mechanism for fuel prices in March 2013.
- Regular price adjustments, in line with international prices, will mitigate risks to the budget, and the smoothing mechanism will contain the impact on pump prices.
- At the same time, the authorities should forcefully implement the planned efficiency measures.

### Social protection and mitigating measures
- Strengthening the social safety net to mitigate the impact on the poor would be crucial, particularly in the context of tariff and fuel price adjustments.

*Source: _cr12332 - 32. The authorities’ prudent budget management and their commitment to execute their*

### 34. The authorities’ plan to strengthen debt management by adopting a medium-term

### _cr12332 - 34. The authorities’ plan to strengthen debt management by adopting a medium-term

### Debt management reform and public-private partnerships (PPPs)
- The authorities plan to adopt a medium-term debt management strategy by mid-2013 and to reorganize the debt management unit along functional lines.
- The text notes it will be important for the government to strengthen capacity for evaluating and monitoring PPPs.

### IMF staff recommendations and program actions
- Staff recommends:
  - Completion of the second review under the ECF arrangement and of the financing assurances review.
  - Modification of end-December 2012 performance criteria on the floor on overall fiscal balance and on the ceiling on net domestic financing.
  - Establishment of new performance criteria for end-June 2013.
  - A disbursement of an amount equivalent to SDR 65.04 million under the ECF arrangement.

### Key macroeconomic projections and indicators (2010–17) — selected series (annual percentage changes or percent of GDP as indicated)
- National income:
  - GDP at constant prices: 2.4; -4.7; 8.1; 8.6; 6.2; 8.0; 7.3; 7.0; 6.7; 6.5
  - GDP deflator: 1.9; 5.0; 2.2; 1.2; 2.0; 2.2; 2.2; 2.1; 2.1; 2.4
  - Consumer price index (annual average): 1.4; 4.9; 2.0; 2.0; 2.5; 2.5; 2.5; 2.5; 2.5; 2.5
  - Consumer price index (end of period): 5.1; 1.9; 1.5; 1.5; 2.5; 2.5; 2.5; 2.5; 2.5; 2.5
- External sector (CFA francs basis):
  - Exports, f.o.b., at current prices: 13.2; 4.5; 1.2; -0.9; 10.8; 11.5; 9.9; 8.5; 7.8; 8.3
  - Imports, f.o.b., at current prices: 26.1; -13.7; 27.7; 34.8; 11.6; 16.3; 9.4; 8.6; 9.2; 9.0
  - Current account balance (including official transfers, percent of GDP): 2.4; 9.4; -2.8; -3.2; -3.0; -3.4; -3.8; -3.7; -4.1; -4.5
  - Gross public debt (percent of GDP): 66.4; 71.2; 64.9; 49.5; 64.1; 45.7; 43.8; 42.5; 41.1; 40.0
  - External public debt (percent of GDP): 50.6; 55.1; 51.2; 34.3; 51.0; 32.0; 30.4; 29.2; 28.1; 27.1
- Money and credit (changes in percent of beginning-of-period broad money):
  - Money and quasi-money (M2): 19.0; 12.5; 15.4; 20.4; 11.5; 12.5; 9.9; 9.0; 8.8; 8.9
  - Net foreign assets: 7.2; 9.8; 6.4; 10.0; 3.6; 5.5; 2.9; 2.2; 2.2; 1.9
  - Net domestic assets: 11.9; 2.7; 9.1; 10.4; 7.9; 7.0; 7.0; 6.7; 6.6; 6.9

### Balance of payments highlights (2010–17, in billions of CFA francs unless otherwise indicated)
- Trade and current account:
  - Trade balance: 1,876.0; 2,661.4; 1,487.0; 1,449.3; 1,615.4; 1,403.5; 1,569.3; 1,695.7; 1,736.9; 1,835.0
  - Exports, f.o.b.: 5,723.2; 5,983.1; 5,592.3; 5,927.4; 6,196.7; 6,611.5; 7,265.5; 7,884.5; 8,497.3; 9,205.5
  - Imports, f.o.b.: -3,847.2; -3,321.7; -4,105.3; -4,478.2; -4,581.3; -5,208.0; -5,696.3; -6,188.8; -6,760.5; -7,370.5
  - Current account including official transfers (CFAF billions): 271.3; 1,067.8; -356.4; -393.2; -414.6; -470.9; -565.1; -614.3; -734.4; -876.0
  - Current account excluding official transfers (CFAF billions): 194.9; 914.5; -387.2; -436.8; -437.1; -697.0; -703.2; -764.8; -898.1; -1,054.3
- Capital and financing:
  - Official medium- and long-term loans (net): -262.0; 26.4; -219.7; -244.6; -260.8; 159.6; 99.6; 114.1; 125.6; 111.9
  - Project loans: 48.3; 30.6; 78.7; 70.4; 80.2; 302.7; 317.8; 349.6; 367.1; 367.1
  - Foreign direct investments: 155.6; 127.8; 275.4; 330.4; 385.5; 429.6; 472.5; 519.8; 571.7; 628.9
  - Overall balance (CFAF billions): -94.5; 115.8; -180.3; 44.0; -277.4; 177.4; 73.1; -27.1; 14.8; -14.2

### Fiscal operations of the central government (2010–17, selected levels and ratios)
- Levels (Billions of CFA francs):
  - Total revenue and grants: 2,236.6; 1,725.9; 2,409.8; 2,553.9; 2,760.0; 2,988.5; 3,318.1; 3,629.0; 3,964.1; 4,348.5
  - Total revenue: 2,176.2; 1,693.0; 2,357.6; 2,492.2; 2,619.3; 2,742.4; 3,026.9; 3,323.4; 3,656.0; 4,033.6
  - Total expenditure: 2,497.8; 2,208.7; 2,963.6; 3,090.3; 3,200.0; 3,387.2; 3,735.1; 4,139.1; 4,499.9; 4,921.8
  - Overall balance, including grants: -261.2; -482.9; -553.7; -536.4; -440.0; -398.7; -416.9; -510.1; -535.8; -573.3
  - Interest due: 194.5; 219.3; 227.6; 235.0; 329.6; 212.7; 253.7; 296.0; 340.9; 390.9
  - Capital expenditure: 348.6; 285.7; 660.2; 667.5; 764.5; 1,031.9; 1,159.9; 1,328.3; 1,433.2; 1,566.8
- Ratios (percent of GDP, selected):
  - Total revenue and grants: 19.7; 20.3; 19.2; 20.5; 20.3; 21.7; 22.0; 22.1; 22.2; 22.4
  - Total expenditure: 22.0; 25.9; 23.6; 24.8; 23.5; 24.6; 24.8; 25.2; 25.2; 25.3
  - Overall balance, including grants: -2.3; -5.7; -4.4; -4.3; -3.2; -2.9; -2.8; -3.1; -3.0; -3.0
  - Primary basic balance: -0.2; -2.9; -2.0; -1.9; -0.2; 0.2; 0.2; 0.0; 0.3; 0.5
  - Capital expenditure: 3.1; 3.4; 5.3; 5.4; 5.6; 7.5; 7.7; 8.1; 8.0; 8.1

### Financing, external arrears, and debt relief (2010–17; Billions of CFA francs and percent of GDP)
- Financing (overall, Billions of CFA francs): 548.9; 482.1; 602.6; 586.6; 466.5; 443.1; 387.8; 510.1; 535.8; 573.3
- Domestic financing (net): -57.8; -6.9; 97.5; 155.6; 88.7; 7.2; 47.5; 42.4; 56.6; 79.2
- External financing: 606.7; 489.0; -120.8; -150.7; -108.7; 277.6; 199.6; 284.1; 325.6; 320.3
- Debt relief and budget support (Billions of CFA francs): 733.4; 621.7; 0.0; 2,497.6; 0.0; 1.0; 0.0; 0.0; 0.0; 0.0
- Net change in external arrears (principal): -134.1; 20.6; -129.0; -129.1; 2.1; -3.4; 0.0; 0.0; 0.0; 0.0
- Financing gap (residual gap, Billions of CFA francs): 96.3; 45.2; 149.3; 75.1; 140.7; 183.5; 153.5; 173.9
  - Of which: IMF-ECF (Billions of CFA francs): 96.3; 45.2; 75.1; 75.1; 65.2; 0.0; 0.0; 0.0

### IMF ECF disbursement schedule and conditionality (SDR millions, 2011–14)
- Proposed disbursements and conditions:
  - 25.8 (in percent of quota) / 1.30 (Amount?) — November 4, 2011: Executive Board approval of the three-year arrangement under the ECF.
  - 20 / 65.04 — April 1, 2012: Observance of performance criteria for December 2011 and completion of the first review under the ECF arrangement.
  - 20 / 65.04 — October 1, 2012: Observance of performance criteria for June 2012 and completion of the second review under the ECF arrangement.
  - 15 / 48.78 — April 1, 2013: Observance of performance criteria for December 2012 and completion of the third review under the ECF arrangement.
  - 15 / 48.78 — October 1, 2013: Observance of performance criteria for June 2013 and completion of the fourth review under the ECF arrangement.
  - 15 / 48.78 — April 1, 2014: Observance of performance criteria for December 2013 and completion of the fifth review under the ECF arrangement.
  - 10 / 32.52 — October 1, 2014: Observance of performance criteria for June 2014 and completion of the sixth review under the ECF arrangement.
  - Total: 120 / 390.24 (SDR millions)

### Performance criteria and indicative targets (selected items, 2012–13)
- Continuous performance criteria (examples, Billions of CFA francs):
  - Floor on the overall fiscal balance (including grants): Indicative targets and actuals show large negative balances (e.g., -56.7 IT; 60.4 actual; cumulative movements reported).
  - Ceiling on net domestic financing (including WAEMU paper): IT 58.6; actual 16.8; Met in reported periods.
  - Ceiling on new nonconcessional external debt (in $ million): 0.0 limit; Met.
  - Ceiling on accumulation of new external arrears: 0.0 limit; Met.
  - Ceiling on accumulation of new domestic arrears: 0.0 limit; Met.
- Indicative targets (examples):
  - Floor on primary basic balance (Billions of CFA francs): IT -0.2; actuals and PCs reported (e.g., 89.5 Met; subsequent values show large negative primary balances in 2012).
  - Floor on pro-poor expenditure (Billions of CFA francs): IT 181.3; actual 189.8; Met; cumulative pro-poor expenditure targets and actuals (e.g., 676.9; 980.0).
  - Floor on government revenue (Billions of CFA francs): IT 525.8; actual 598.7; Met; cumulative targets reported (e.g., 1,697.3; 2,492.2).
- Memorandum items include program grants, project grants, project loans, and net banking sector claims on government with specific reported flows and cumulated values.

### Monetary survey (selected levels, 2010–13; Billions of CFA francs)
- Net foreign assets (levels): 1,401.5; 1,813.0; 2,105.8; 2,284.4; 2,298.7; 2,597.4
  - Central bank component: 1,351.9; 1,644.1; 1,936.9; 2,115.5; 2,129.8; 2,428.5
- Broad money (levels): 4,180.8; 4,705.1; 5,305.9; 5,663.6; 5,917.6; 6,372.8
  - Currency in circulation: 1,636.4; 1,661.7; 1,926.6; 2,056.5; 2,142.8; 2,307.6
  - Deposits: 2,537.0; 3,009.2; 3,350.6; 3,576.5; 3,742.8; 4,030.7
- Credit to the economy (levels): 2,045.6; 2,142.8; 2,226.6; 2,426.4; 2,541.6; 2,718.9

### Indicators of capacity to repay the Fund (2010–22, SDR and CFAF series)
- Fund obligations based on existing credit (principal, millions of SDRs): 11.7; 11.7; 0.0; 0.0; 4.6; 39.0; 46.2; 85.2; 91.7; 75.8; 52.7; 45.5; 6.5
- Charges and interest (millions of SDRs): 0.1; 0.1; 0.0; 0.0; 1.2; 1.1; 1.0; 0.8; 0.6; 0.4; 0.2; 0.1; 0.0
- Total obligations based on existing and prospective credit (in millions of SDRs): 11.8; 11.8; 0.0; 0.0; 6.3; 40.7; 47.8; 86.6; 110.8; 114.1; 102.1; 94.7; 55.5
- Outstanding Fund credit (in millions of SDRs): 284.2; 399.4; 512.3; 609.8; 686.5; 647.5; 601.3; 516.1; 406.5; 293.3; 191.9; 97.6; 42.3
- Net use of Fund credit (millions of SDRs): 24.1; 150.9; 130.1; 97.6; 76.7; -39.0; -46.2; -85.2; -109.6; -113.2; -101.5; -94.3; -55.3

*Sources: Ivoirien authorities; IMF staff estimates and projections.*

### APPENDIX I. CÔTE D’IVOIRE: LETTER OF INTENT

### APPENDIX I. CÔTE D’IVOIRE: LETTER OF INTENT

### Overview and objectives
- Government objective: transform Côte d’Ivoire into an emerging economy by 2020 through the 2012–15 National Development Plan (PND).
- Letter requests IMF support under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) in the amount of SDR 65.04 million.
- Government requests amendment of program performance criteria for end-December 2012 and establishment of end-June 2013 performance criteria, taking into account revised debt relief projections following the HIPC completion point.

### Recent political, security, and social developments
- All government institutions are functional and draft/proposed legislation is again examined by Parliament.
- Public universities resumed operations on September 3, 2012 after extended closure for disrepair; the Memorandum also notes classes resumed on September 24, 2012 in another reference.
- National reconciliation underway via the Commission for Dialogue, Truth and Reconciliation (CDVR).
- Security improved nationwide though isolated outbreaks occurred; a National Security Council (CNS) was created under the President.
- New unified army created; a new DDR management structure was created on August 8, 2012.

### Economic performance and macro indicators (2011–mid‑2012)
- GDP growth: actual growth of 8.6 percent in 2012 (exceeding initial target of 8.1 percent).
- Business confidence index: above 90 percent.
- Investment: expected increase from 12.5 percent of GDP in 2012 to 23.5 percent in 2015; public investment expected to increase from 5.3 percent to 9 percent over the same period.
- Short‑term program targets: aim to achieve real GDP growth of 9 percent in 2013, and 10 percent in 2014 and 2015.
- Public investment in the 2013 budget: 7.5 percent of GDP, compared to 5.3 percent in 2012.

Key half‑year (end‑July / end‑June 2012) figures and trends:
- Inflation first half of 2012: +0.3 percent.
- Exports: rose by 10 percent.
- Imports: grew by 118.7 percent.
- Trade surplus: CFAF 346.5 billion (fell by approximately 80 percent from prior level).
- Net external assets: fell by CFAF 220.1 billion.
- Net domestic credit: grew by 6 percent (driven by net claims on government 18.1 percent and credit to the economy 1.4 percent).
- Money supply: contracted by 0.5 percent.
- Revenue: higher than anticipated by CFAF 133.4 billion (1.1 percent of GDP).
- Fiscal balance at end‑June 2012: -0.2 percent of GDP (target -1.4 percent).
- Pro‑poor expenditure: CFAF 496.1 billion (floor CFAF 403 billion).
- Investment expenditures execution rate: 94.0 percent, reaching CFAF 200.6 billion.
- Domestically financed investments: CFAF 147.4 billion, execution rate 104.4 percent.
- Domestic debt: net reduction in amounts payable in Treasury accounts CFAF 24.2 billion at end‑June 2012.
- Regional market financing: net amount raised CFAF 209.8 billion.

### Debt relief and debt management
- HIPC Initiative completion point reached on June 26, 2012.
- Debt relief received (including Debt Reduction and Development Contracts (C2D) with France): CFA Francs 4,090 billion, or 64.2 percent of external debt.
- Result: debt ratios now in line with subregional and international standards; debt management procedures revised accordingly.

### Program implementation and structural reforms (progress and measures)
- All end‑June 2012 performance criteria were met.
- Public finance:
  - Budget review laws for 2004–2010 approved by the National Assembly; draft 2011 review law adopted by Council of Ministers.
  - 2013 budget bill submitted to the National Assembly within constitutional deadline.
  - Since December 2011, quarterly reports submitted to the Council of Ministers on budget execution status, including SIGFiP processing delays.
  - Medium‑Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) extended to 8 new ministries: security, defense, justice, agriculture, economic infrastructure, energy, environment, and social affairs.
- Coffee and cocoa sector:
  - Reform adopted November 2011 implemented by the Coffee and Cocoa Council.
  - Forward Sales Program (PVAM) launched; minimum guaranteed price for producers set at 60 percent of the c.i.f. price for the 2012/2013 campaign.
  - Registration fee reduced from 5 percent to 1.28 percent of the c.i.f. price.
  - Official communiqué on the price schedule issued on Tuesday, September 25, 2012; campaign launched October 3, 2012.
  - Reserve fund reached the CFAF 40 billion target.
- Financial sector:
  - Strategic options for restructuring public banks (merger, liquidation, privatization) approved; plan centers on gradual government withdrawal with minimal participation in targeted sectors (housing, SMEs, industry, agriculture).
  - Microfinance: sectoral audits, restructuring plan for UNACOOPEC‑CI, plan for transitional administration placement, and update of the National Microfinance Strategy (SNM).
- Hydrocarbons sector:
  - Law No. 96-699 of August 29, 1996 amended to encourage exploration/production and improve transparency and environmental protection.
  - New Production‑Sharing Contract framework adopted; hydrocarbon code being finalized.
- Electricity sector:
  - Negotiations fixed a base natural gas price of $5.5 per MMBTU, compared to an average price of $9.8 in 2011.
  - Industrial electricity rates increased by 10 percent in May 2012.
  - Government measures to apply the general tariff to households currently paying the social tariff if they consume more than 200 kWh on a bimonthly basis as from January 2013.
- Refinery (SIR): most government debts addressed through securitization or cash settlement to ensure financial viability.
- Business climate and governance:
  - Commercial courts created; Commercial Court of Abidjan operational since October 2012.
  - New investment code adopted by Decree No. 2012/487 on June 7, 2012 to promote foreign capital inflows and grant advantages to SMEs.
  - Civil service modernization: census completed, Single Reference File (FUR) used by Payroll Services since October 2012; SIGFAE software conception and development completed and deployment begun.
  - Ethical charter and code of conduct for employees adopted by the Council of Ministers on September 19, 2012.
- Public enterprises:
  - Restructuring strategy adopted by the Council of Ministers on May 26, 2012 aiming to reduce the government’s portfolio by 25 percent via privatization, merger, or transfer to a technical oversight agency.

### Program outlook and authorities’ commitment
- 2013 program basis: consolidate recovery and target GDP growth of 9 percent in 2013 and at least 10 percent starting in 2014.
- Authorities commit to consult IMF staff before adopting additional measures or changes to policies in the memorandum and to cooperate fully with the IMF to achieve program objectives.
- Authorities consented to the release and publication of the Letter of Intent, attached MEFP, TMU, and IMF staff report following IMF Executive Board approval.

*Letter of Intent and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, Republic of Côte d’Ivoire, November 13, 2012.*

### 9. The implementation of certain measures has been delayed for various reasons.

### _cr12332 - 9. The implementation of certain measures has been delayed for various reasons.

### Delayed implementation of specific measures
- Petroleum pricing
  - A study completed in December 2011 informed a framework for a new automatic adjustment mechanism for petroleum prices elaborated by the responsible ministries.
  - The continuing upward trend in international prices has not been conducive to the application of this measure in 2012, given the fragile social environment.
  - Given the significant losses in revenue linked to current pricing policy, the government has initiated additional studies aimed at refining and finalizing the parameters involved in the price structure for petroleum products.
- Electricity sector deficit reduction measures
  - Renegotiation of the Canadian Natural Resources (CNR) transfer price for gas and remuneration for the operator of the electricity distribution network: discussions are ongoing.
  - The government intends to conclude these discussions as soon as possible to allow for the effective application of the measures in 2013.
  - The government also intends to complete negotiations with Foxtrot regarding the remaining issues.
- Wage bill strategy (2012–2020)
  - A draft consistent with commitments under the NDP has been prepared.
  - Key elements: streamlining new hiring, progressive measures to raise salaries, modernization and computerization of the public administration.
  - Finalization is subject to the conclusions of the Social Forum launched in August 2012 by the government.

### Macroeconomic outlook (2012)
- Growth and sector performance
  - Revised GDP growth forecast: 8.6 percent in 2012 (original target 8.1 percent), following a decline of 4.7 percent in 2011.
  - Secondary sector: +14.8 percent (initial forecast +11.8 percent).
  - Public and private investment acceleration: 63.2 percent compared to 2011 (initial forecast 58.3 percent).
- Inflation and prices
  - Inflation: annual average rise in prices will be 1.1 percent, within the WAEMU norm of 3 percent.
  - Measures to control cost of living include suspension of import duties on rice and improvements in supply channels.
- External sector and balance of payments
  - Imports increase in value: 7 percent of GDP.
  - Exports increase in value: 1.7 percent of GDP.
  - Current account surplus: 2.9 percent of GDP (compared to 10.2 percent in 2011).
  - Capital and financial account: deficit of 3.9 percent of GDP.
  - Overall balance of payments deficit: 1 percent of GDP.

### 2012 fiscal execution and financing
- Revenue outturn
  - Tax and customs revenue gain: CFAF 116.0 billion (0.9 percent of GDP).
  - Drivers: higher non-oil corporate tax, tax on income from securities, tax on salaries and wages; Single Export Duty (DUS) on coffee and cocoa benefits from world price rise and elimination of special treatment for processed cocoa.
  - Declines: registration fee, revenue from general goods, taxes on petroleum products (due to lower registration fee for cocoa, suspension of import duties on rice, freezing of petroleum pump prices).
- Expenditure execution
  - Budget spending execution should reach CFAF 3090.2 billion, with a slight overrun.
  - Overrun components: payment of CFAF 32.4 billion to the electricity sector to settle arrears under the PARI-PASSU, surcharges linked to HVO use, and necessary investments to support the recovery.
- Financing needs and debt restructuring
  - Financing needs for 2012: CFAF 536.2 billion, or 4.3 percent of GDP.
  - Primary financing: net mobilization of funds in the regional financial market (WAEMU); external budget support declined after exceptional 2011 efforts.
  - Government intends to complete restructuring of external commercial debt (Standard Bank-BNI and Sphinx) under conditions comparable to 2009 and 2011 Paris Club agreements and in line with the HIPC Initiative.
  - In June 2012, the government resumed servicing the EuroBond 2032 and made a good-faith payment towards settlement of the arrears; proposed an arrears repayment plan based on financing capacity.
  - Government will continue and conclude discussions with private creditors consistent with Fund policy regarding loans in arrears (information transparency, equity among creditors, dialogue).

### Debt relief and public debt management
- Enhanced HIPC completion point benefits (end-June 2012)
  - Total benefit: CFAF 4,090 billion, or 64.2 percent of external debt.
  - Multilateral institutions: reductions of CFAF 946.3 billion on a debt stock amounting to CFAF 1,543.4 billion.
  - Paris Club creditors: reductions of CFAF 3,143.7 billion on a debt stock amounting to CFAF 3,453.0 billion.
  - Bilateral debt relief agreements signed with certain Paris Club members including France, Austria, and Canada.
  - Conversion: portion of debt owed to the French Development Agency converted into debt for development swap contracts (C2D); a first support installment planned for financing the 2012 budget.
- Public debt governance
  - National Public Debt Committee (CNDP) created by Decree No. 2011-424 of November 30, 2011, to coordinate and monitor national debt policy.
  - CNDP actions: developed a procedural manual and implemented its strategic action plan for 2012; secretariat preparing the national debt strategy with technical assistance from the IMF and the World Bank.

### Economic and financial program for 2013 — objectives and reforms
- Strategic objectives
  - Confirm recovery following 2012 rebound.
  - Accelerate rehabilitation and construction of core socio-economic infrastructure and improve business climate to support growth, reduce poverty, and progress toward MDGs.
  - Continue strategy in letter of intent of October 21, 2011: national reconciliation, job creation, public debt management.
- Reform commitments
  - Reinforce public financial management through transcription and implementation of new WAEMU directives.
  - Pursue restructuring of energy and agriculture sectors, public administration reform, and strengthening of the financial system to support growth.

### Macroeconomic framework for 2013
- Growth and investment
  - Projected economic growth: 9 percent in 2013, driven primarily by investment.
  - Investment rate: rise from 12.5 percent of GDP in 2012 to 16.2 percent of GDP in 2013.
  - Public Investment Program (PIP) prepared, consistent with the National Development Plan and regional integration projects.
- Role of private sector
  - New investment code adopted; Business Support Center established.
  - Priority PPP projects identified: new factories, public housing, oil and gold exploration and development, increased electrical power production capacity.
- Sectoral growth projections (2013)
  - Primary sector: growth rate of 4.7 percent, driven by mining output increase and National Agricultural Investment Program (PNIA).
  - Secondary sector: growth of 12.1 percent, benefiting from improved business climate, utilization of capacity, return of investor confidence, and promotion of public and private investment including PPPs.
  - Tertiary sector: growth of 12.9 percent, aligned with primary and secondary sector performance.
- Inflation
  - Projected inflation: around 2.3 percent, within the WAEMU 3 percent norm.
  - Contributing policies: agricultural development (rice and food crops), anti-racketeering efforts, reduction in incidental expenses, road repairs serving agricultural regions.

### 2013 budget law — revenue, spending priorities, and fiscal anchors
- Revenue mobilization and tax effort
  - Tax revenues projected: 17.4 percent of GDP in 2013, compared to 17.3 percent in 2012.
  - Domestic tax measures include:
    - Pursuit of taxation on informal activities and other insufficiently taxed activities.
    - Implementation of an action plan to optimize VAT yield.
    - Reinforcement of anti-fraud actions and monitoring use of standardized invoices.
    - Promotion of public tax compliance and awareness of new taxes, including implementation of a tax on windfall profits of mining operations.
    - Improvement of real estate tax collection rate.
    - Improvement of some user fee yields by dematerializing support.
  - Taxes on external trade: increase from 7.5 percent in 2012 to 8.3 percent in 2013, boosted by taxes on import of general goods and resumption of import duties and taxes on rice.
  - DUS receipts expected to improve due to elimination of past tax relief to cocoa processors and taxation of coffee on an ad valorem basis.
- Public investment and pro-poor spending
  - Capital expenditures: CFAF 1031.9 billion, or 7.5 percent of GDP, compared to 5.4 percent in 2012.
  - Capital appropriation: approximately 26.9 percent of budget revenue.
  - Capital directed to rehabilitation/construction of basic infrastructure, support for agriculture, transportation, energy, and strengthening security and national defense.
  - Pro-poor spending priority: 8.3 percent of GDP in 2013, compared to 7.9 percent in 2012 (rehabilitation of schools and health facilities, free targeted health care, agriculture promotion, purchase of textbooks and school kits, continuation of school meal program).
- Expenditure caps and wage bill
  - Operating expenses cap: CFAF 507 billion.
  - Subsidies for the electricity sector cap: CFAF 64 billion.
  - Wage bill containment: target 7.5 percent of GDP.
  - Introduction of computerized personnel management and streamlining recruitment expected to reduce wage bill to tax revenue ratio to 43.1percent in 2013.
- Fiscal balance
  - Overall primary basic balance: CFAF 23.2 billion, or 0.2 percent of GDP.
  - Total budget deficit including grants (except grants for settlement of arrears): 2.9 percent of GDP in 2013 (down from 4.3 percent of GDP in 2012).

### Structural reforms agenda
- Public financial management and transparency
  - Adoption timeline:
    - Preliminary draft organic laws on code of transparency and budget system law to be adopted by the Council of Ministers in December 2012 and submitted to Parliament at end-March 2013.
    - Following promulgation, decrees on General Regulations on Public Accounting, Government Budget Nomenclature, Government Chart of Accounts, and Table of Government Financial Operations signed after parliamentary adoption.
    - Government to adopt by end-July 2013 a strategy and action plan for reform implementation.
  - Transparency of budget execution:
    - Implementation of the transparency code after adoption.
    - Improve quarterly reports on budget execution by incorporating analysis of investment spending by ministry.
    - Continue rolling out SIGFiP throughout the country.
  - Budget discipline:
    - Contain Treasury advances within limits under the order of March 2009.
    - Extend the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) to eight high-level ministries for 2013 (in addition to education, training, and health); expand to other ministries in 2014.
    - Put in place an overall MTEF for 2014 budget preparation.
  - Public Expenditure Management and Accountability Review (PEMFAR) action plan and a coordination plan with donors to be adopted before end-September 2013.
- Coffee and cocoa sector reforms
  - Conduct assessment on need for hedging external market risk for cocoa and apply recommendations.
  - Regular audits of the sales system and semi-annual report on reform implementation.
  - Establish ad valorem taxation for coffee starting from the 2013 campaign.
- Electricity sector reforms and capacity expansion
  - Prior action: adopt before November 15, 2012 a medium-term strategy for development and restoration of the sector’s financial equilibrium covering 2013–15; inventory projects to increase thermal and hydroelectric production, measures to reduce costs and generate additional revenue while protecting low-income households.
  - Projects to boost natural gas production and reduce reliance on HVO fuel between now and 2014; after boosting Foxtrot capacity, develop the Gazelle field to go into production in 2014—starting in 2014 there will only be residual recourse to HVO.
  - Medium-term increase in hydroelectric capacities, notably completion of the Soubré hydroelectric dam, to contribute to cost reduction.
  - Measures to reduce technical and non-technical losses and complete new electricity generation projects, including improvement in overall efficiency of electricity generation.

*IMF staff report text from the supplied content unit.*

### 74.7 percent in 2012 to 77.7 percent in 2015, or 1 percentage point per year; (ii) the

### IV–VI. Debt Strategy; Program Financing and Monitoring; Statistics and Capacity-Building

### Electricity, energy, and extractive industries measures
- Planned capacity and project timelines:
  - Leasing of a thermal power station with a 100 MW capacity starting in March 2013.
  - Investments in 2013 to bring phase 4 of CIPREL on line in January 2014, and its cogeneration cycle on line in January 2015.
  - Phases 1 and 2 of the Abatta cogeneration cycle thermal power station on line in December 2015 and February 2016, respectively, and its steam cycle on line in December 2016.
  - Startup of the Azito steam cycle is planned for December 2014.
  - Preliminary discussions under way with potential investors regarding three other projects.
- Regulatory, contractual and tariff actions:
  - Complete negotiations with the operator of the electricity distribution network before end-June 2013 to consider a reduction in its remuneration and with gas field operators to reduce the gas price; discussions regarding a change in the contract for the Foxtrot gas field will be completed at the earliest.
  - New electricity code will be adopted by the Council of Ministers before the end of 2012 and will then be submitted to the National Assembly.
  - Electricity export contracts will be renegotiated with an adjustment in the rates to allow for a greater contribution toward production costs.
  - Transition to the regular tariff for all customers consuming more than 200 kWh bimonthly will be effective for all the bills relating to consumption after January 1, 2013.
  - A new tariff structure incorporating the recommendations of the social impact study initiated in 2012 would be applied starting in 2013.
  - Government intends to implement gradual rate increases, starting with an average increase of 5 percent for the low-voltage tariff in July 2013, with subsequent steps to complement cost-cutting measures and mobilize additional resources while protecting low-income households.
- Petroleum and butane policy:
  - New automatic price adjustment mechanism for petroleum products; new price structure to be developed and adopted by the government before November 15, 2012 and publicized prior to implementation at end-March 2013.
  - Government decided to raise prices for liquid petroleum products by a maximum of CFAF 15 (or around 2 percent) per liter beginning December 2012.
  - Simultaneously limit the butane gas subsidy to 6 and 12 kg bottles.
  - A study regarding the butane adjustment will be completed before end-November 2012 to ascertain the viability of the butane subsidy policy within the context of the new price structure.
- Extractive industries transparency:
  - Côte d’Ivoire aims to be fully compliant with the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI).
  - Following publication of reports for 2008–09 and 2010 and amendment to the petroleum code requiring oil companies to participate in the EITI, the government hopes the EITI Board will decide on the country’s compliance at its October 2012 meeting.

### Public enterprises, banking, and financial-sector measures
- Public enterprise reform:
  - Restructuring plan adopted by the Council of Ministers on May 23, 2012, will be implemented.
  - Ultimate objective: reduce the government’s portfolio by 25 percent through privatization, merger, or transfer of responsibilities to a technical oversight agency.
  - Development of terms of reference to define mechanism and strategy for each enterprise has started.
  - Government plans to institute performance contracts between the government of Côte d’Ivoire and public enterprises to improve productivity.
  - Oversight of application of plan for settlement of outstanding payments validated jointly by debtor public enterprises and social security institutions (CGRAE and CNPS).
- Public banks and arrears:
  - Designated strategic options for restructuring public banks are in the process of being implemented.
  - International firms hired to assess the value of these banks; evaluation studies will be completed by end-November 2012.
  - Government planning to settle its arrears to the financial sector in 2013.
  - Arrears to the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) will be subject to a settlement plan.
  - Arrears to banks and financial institutions will be settled through issuing Treasury bonds.
  - Arrears to the nonfinancial sector will be subject to an audit and a settlement plan will be designed thereafter.
- Financial Sector Development Strategy (SDSF):
  - Government intends to finalize the SDSF with support of the FIRST initiative.
  - SDSF should identify solutions for improving financing of economic activities, particularly in housing, small- and medium-sized enterprises, and agriculture; address role of government in the financial sector, cost of credit, and recovery of the microfinance sector.
  - Finalization of complementary studies to develop a strategy that will be validated in the course of a workshop at the end of the first quarter of 2013.
  - A roundtable will be organized to arrange for its financing in 2013.
  - Financial Sector Monitoring and Development Committee (CODESFI), created in November 2009, will oversee implementation of the SDSF in 2013.

### Business climate, public administration, and statistical capacity
- Business environment improvements:
  - Following opening of commercial court in Abidjan, two other commercial courts will be opened in 2013; training for magistrates and judicial personnel will be bolstered.
  - Business Support Center to become operational under CEPICI, granted status of autonomous legal entity (national public administrative agency).
  - Program for rehabilitation and creation of industrial zones will be implemented.
  - Government intends to complete establishment of a one-stop shop for foreign trade; feasibility studies have started.
- Public administration modernization:
  - Continued deployment of SIGFAE and steps to improve personnel management framework.
  - Implementation of a strategy to manage the wage bill, building on recommendations of the Social Forum initiated in 2012, to contain new recruitment while meeting National Development Plan requirements.
- Statistical system strengthening:
  - Strategic Plan for the Strengthening of Statistics for 2012–15 ratified through adoption of the PND for 2012–15 on March 28, 2012, and put into operation.
  - Plan entails: (i) support for national and sectoral surveys; (ii) workshops on implementation of the Integrated Information Management System database; (iii) updating of the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HCPI); (iv) development of ministerial statistical services yearbook; and (v) production of the projected balance of payments.
  - Special effort with assistance of AFRITAC West to produce quarterly national accounts in 2013.
  - Draft law regarding organization, regulation, and coordination of statistical activities has been updated and presented to the government; it should be adopted by the National Assembly in 2013.

### IV. Debt strategy — objectives, institutional actions, and borrowing limits
- Debt strategy objectives:
  - (i) significantly lower the refinancing risk by converting domestic debt into medium- and long-term debt;
  - (ii) favor concessional borrowing with regard to external debt;
  - (iii) assist in the progressive development of the domestic market while opting for medium-term maturities;
  - (iv) minimize all costs and risks.
- Institutional and operational measures:
  - Following establishment of the CNDP, government intends to reorganize operational framework for debt management by creating “front, middle, and back office” services handling both domestic and external debt.
  - Government will adopt a debt strategy in the first half of 2013.
  - CNDP will produce an annual report on the policy and execution of the debt strategy, to be submitted to Parliament during adoption of the budget law, starting with the 2014 fiscal year.
- Public-private partnerships (PPPs):
  - Government will implement a strategy to promote PPPs to boost investment while limiting risks to public finances.
  - National Committee created in November 2011 instructed to put a legal and institutional framework in place before end-June 2013 and to strengthen domestic PPP capacity.
  - Priority projects eligible for PPP consistent with the National Development Plan have been adopted by the Council of Ministers.
  - More in-depth studies to prepare financial structuring and implementation of PPPs; government will seek assistance from IMF, World Bank, and other development partners on best international practices.
- Borrowing policy and limits:
  - Government will continue to favor concessional sources of financing; some nonconcessional external borrowing may be necessary for economically profitable projects where concessional borrowing is difficult to mobilize.
  - Government will limit its cumulative nonconcessional borrowing in 2013–14 to the equivalent of USD 100 million by end-2013 and USD 200 million by end-2014, limited to infrastructure and energy sector investment projects that are economically profitable.
  - Government requests an increase of CFAF 25 billion (equivalent to USD 50 million) in the existing nonconcessional window for borrowing on nonconcessional terms from the West African Development Bank (BOAD).

### V. Program financing and monitoring
- Financing overview and shortfall:
  - Government considers financing will be available for the program in 2013.
  - Financing shortfall in 2013 will be CFAF 37.4 billion and will be financed through the domestic market.
- Funding sources for the PIP in 2013–15:
  - (i) the C2D with the French Development Agency (AFD); and (ii) a donor meeting (consultative group) including an investors’ forum, supported by the World Bank, to be organized in early December 2012 in Paris.
  - Government intends to rely primarily on grants or concessional loans, particularly from the World Bank, the African Development Bank, the Islamic Development Bank, and the European Union.
  - Nonconcessional financing might be needed for certain investments.
- Domestic and regional market access and cash management:
  - Government intends to mobilize more loans with longer maturities.
  - Regular meetings of the Treasury Committee to ensure revenue projections and public securities issues are consistent with execution of expenditures and meeting debt service obligations.
  - Government will continue to aim for a net reduction in amount payables by CFAF 25 billion in 2013, and to meet its obligations under securitized debt.
- Program monitoring and conditionalities:
  - Program will be monitored on a half-yearly basis by the IMF Executive Board based on quantitative indicators and structural targets defined in the Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU); semi-annual reviews based on end-June and end-December data.
  - Third (fourth) program review based on performance criteria at end-December 2012 (end-June 2013) to be completed no later than June 2013 (December 2013).
  - Government undertakes:
    - to refrain from accumulating new domestic arrears and any kind of advance against revenues and from obtaining nonconcessional external loans other than those specified in the TMU;
    - to issue government securities only by means of an auction through the BCEAO or any other form of competitive bidding in the local financial market and the WAEMU and to consult with Fund staff regarding any new domestic financing;
    - not to introduce or tighten restrictions on payments and transfers pertaining to current international transactions, not to introduce multiple exchange rate practices, not to conclude any bilateral payment agreements that are not in compliance with Article VIII of the IMF Articles of Agreement, and not to impose or tighten any restrictions on imports for the purpose of balancing the balance of payments;
    - to adopt all new financial or structural measures as needed to ensure successful implementation of its policies in consultation with the IMF.

*Source: Excerpt from IMF staff report content unit _cr12332 (pages covering electricity and energy measures; public enterprise and financial-sector reforms; debt strategy; program financing and monitoring; statistics and capacity-building).*

### 47.      Côte d’Ivoire will continue to strengthen its administrative capacities in a

### _cr12332 - 47.      Côte d’Ivoire will continue to strengthen its administrative capacities in a

### Strengthening administrative capacities — commitments and technical assistance
- The government will continue to strengthen tax and customs administrations.
- The government will review tax exemptions.
- The government will assist in the implementation of the action plan for the reform of public finances.
- The government will improve national accounts with the aim of creating a social accounting matrix.
- The government will develop capacities for the management of public resources and the monitoring of investment projects.
- To strengthen public debt management, the government intends to undertake a capacity-building program aimed at supporting the development and implementation of a medium-term debt strategy.
- The government will seek technical assistance from the IMF.

### Selected quantitative parameters and program mechanics (TMU, November 13, 2012)
- Document date: November 13, 2012.
- Performance criteria (PC) and indicative targets (IT) are set for December 31, 2012, and June 30, 2013; indicative targets are also set for September 30, 2012, and March 31, 2013.
- Performance criteria include:
  - a floor on the overall fiscal balance (including grants);
  - a ceiling for net domestic financing (including the issuance of securities in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) financial market);
  - a ceiling on new nonconcessional external debt;
  - a zero ceiling for the accumulation of new external arrears;
  - a zero ceiling for the accumulation of new domestic arrears.
- Indicative targets include:
  - a floor on the primary basic fiscal balance;
  - a ceiling on expenditures by treasury advance;
  - a floor on “pro-poor” expenditures;
  - a floor on the net reduction of the government amounts payables;
  - a floor on total government revenue.
- PCs, ITs, and adjustors are calculated as the cumulative change from December 31, 2011, for the 2012 targets, and from December 31, 2012, for the 2013 targets.
- Treasury advances: the cumulative amount of expenditures by treasury advance will not exceed the cumulative quarterly ceilings representing 10 percent of quarterly budget allocations (excluding externally financed expenditures, wages, subsidies and transfers, and debt service).
- The ceiling on net domestic financing includes a margin of CFAF 10 billion above the net cumulative flow projected for each quarter.
- If disbursements of external budget support fall short relative to programmed amounts, the ceiling on net domestic financing will be adjusted upward accordingly up to a maximum of CFAF 40 billion of change in the programmed amount of budget support.
- If disbursements of external budgetary support exceed the programmed amounts, the ceiling on net domestic financing will be adjusted downward at a rate of 50 percent up to a maximum of CFAF 40 billion of change in the programmed amount of budget support.

### Definitions of key program variables (as specified in TMU)
- Total government revenue (IT): all revenue collected by the Tax Administration (DGI), the Directorate-General of the Treasury and Public Accounting Administration (DGTCP), the Customs Administration (DGD), the CNPS, the CGRAE, and other nontax revenue as defined in the fiscal reporting table (TOFE).
- Pro-poor expenditures (IT): derived from the detailed list of “pro-poor expenditures” in SIFBUD/SIGFIP system.
- Treasury advances (IT): spending paid for by the Treasury outside normal execution and control procedures, not subject to prior commitment and authorization; exclude the “régies d’avances”, externally-financed expenditures, wages, subsidies and transfers, and debt service as set out through ministerial decree; nominative and restrictive list defined by ministerial Decree No. 178/MEF/CAB-01/26 of March 13, 2009.
- Primary basic fiscal balance (IT):  
  Tax and nontax revenue (excluding grants) – {Expenditure + Net lending – Interest payments – Externally-financed capital expenditure (on a payment order basis for all expenditure items)}.
- Overall fiscal balance (including grants) (PC):  
  Tax and nontax revenue + (Grants – World Bank budget support grants – AfDB budget support grants) – {Expenditure + Net lending (on a payment order basis for all expenditure items)}.
- Net domestic financing (PC): Domestic financing (TOFE) – Net change in amounts payable + Treasury bonds from abroad (WAEMU) + Treasury bills placed abroad (WAEMU) + Treasury bonds placed abroad (WAEMU) + IMF drawings + Financing gap.

### Structural benchmarks, timelines, and status (selected items from 2012–13 ECF)
- Tax policy / Tax administration
  - Based on the Procès Verbal Simplifié, register at least 30 percent of custom frauds in the IT system by end-June 2012, with the aim of reaching 90 percent by end-2012. Timeframe: SB end-June 2012; SB end-December 2012 — Status: Met.
  - Review the taxes levied on petroleum products and prepare a gradual adjustment strategy with a price-smoothing mechanism; implement the strategy. Timeframes: SB end-May 2012 (rescheduled); SB July 2012 (rescheduled) — Status: Not met (for both review and implementation items in Table 2).
  - Produce a quarterly report on implementation of the Directorate General of Taxes action plan on VAT optimization no later than 45 days after the quarter ends. Timeframe: SB continuous (Table 3).
  - Undertake a stocktaking of VAT exemptions, including identifying those inconsistent with the WAEMU VAT directive. Timeframe: SB end-February 2013.
- Public expenditure management and public sector reform
  - Update and implement a medium-term strategy for controlling the wage bill. Timeframe: SB end-June 2012 (rescheduled); SB end-February 2012 (Table 3).
  - Include an alert module in the debt management system to automatically generate reminders regarding receipts of notices for debt repayments. Timeframe: SB end-June 2012 — Status: Met.
  - Put in place an integrated management system (single file, SIGFAE) for government officials and employees (excluding defense and security forces). Timeframe: SB end-2012 — Status: Met.
  - No new injection of public funds in the five public banks in difficulty outside a restructuring plan discussed with the IMF and the World Bank. Timeframe: SB continuous — Status: Met.
  - Adopt a strategy for restructuring public enterprises, including the public banks in the Council of Ministers. Timeframe: SB end-June 2012 — Status: Met.
- Energy sector reform
  - Complete the study on the social impact of electricity rates and adopt a strategy to achieve financial equilibrium in the sector over the next three years; validate and implement a new electricity tariff structure; implement the social tariffs rationalization program. Timeframes: SB end-September 2012 (rescheduled), SB end-2012 (rescheduled), SB end-September 2012, SB end-January 2013 — Mixed status: some items Not met, some Met.
  - Third program review actions include adopting a comprehensive strategy to bring the electricity sector back to financial equilibrium over the next three years; adopt the electricity code in the Council of Ministers and submit it to Parliament. Timeframes: Prior Action- Before November 15, 2012; SB end-March 2013; SB July 2013; SB end-December 2012.
- Cocoa sector reform
  - Reach an agreement regarding the price structure for the various stakeholders. Timeframe: SB end-September 2012 — Status: Met.
- Business environment and competition
  - Limit the current fiscal year’s VAT arrears pending refund to under CFAF 10 billion. Timeframe: SB continuous — Status: Met.
  - Adopt a new investment code in the Council of Ministers. Timeframe: SB end-June 2012 — Status: Met.
  - Adopt the law on competition in the Council of Ministers. Timeframe: SB end-March 2013 (Table 3).
- Financial sector reform
  - Prepare a financial sector reform and development strategy. Timeframe: SB end-February 2013.
  - Adopt an action plan including a timeline for restructuring the public banks based on the recommendations of the audits. Timeframe: SB end-February 2013.

*Source: Côte d’Ivoire: Technical Memorandum of Understanding, Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility 2011–14; Tables of Performance Criteria and Structural Benchmarks, November 13, 2012.*

### 12.     This ceiling does not apply to either new agreements on restructuring domestic debt

### _cr12332 - 12.     This ceiling does not apply to either new agreements on restructuring domestic debt

### Ceiling exceptions and auction requirement
- The ceiling does not apply to:
  - new agreements on restructuring domestic debt and securitization of domestic arrears; or
  - new project loans from the West African Development Bank (BOAD) and the Bank for Investment and Development (BIDC) of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
- For any new borrowing over and above a cumulative amount of CFAF 35 billion over each of the years 2012 and 2013, the government undertakes not to issue government securities except:
  - by auction through the BCEAO; or
  - through public auction (appel d’offres compétitif) on the domestic or WAEMU financial markets registered with the Regional Council for Public Savings and Financial Markets (CREPMF),
  - in consultation with Fund staff.

### G. New Nonconcessional External Debt (PC)
- Scope:
  - The quantitative performance criterion concerning external debt applies to all nonconcessional external debt, irrespective of maturity, and whether it has been contracted or guaranteed by the government.
  - It also applies to commitments contracted or guaranteed for which no value has been received.
- Exclusions from this performance criterion:
  - normal import-related commercial debts having a maturity of less than one year;
  - rescheduling agreements;
  - debts to the BOAD on loans up to the equivalent of CFAF 25 billion from January 1 to December 31, 2012 and CFAF 50 billion from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2013;
  - debts to the BIDC, up to the equivalent of CFAF 20 billion, for each of the periods from January 1 to December 31, 2012 and from January 1 to December 31, 2013;
  - drawings on the IMF; and
  - CFAF-denominated government securities (or CFAF-denominated debt contracted or guaranteed by the government) which are initially purchased (or contracted) by WAEMU residents.
- Concessionality definition:
  - A debt is considered concessional if its grant element is at least 35 percent.
  - NPV calculations:
    - For debt with a maturity of at least 15 years: discount rate based on the average of the OECD Commercial Interest Reference Rates (CIRRs) over the last 10 years.
    - For debt with a maturity of less than 15 years: NPV based on the average CIRRs of the preceding six-month period (February 15 to August 14 or August 15 to February 14).
  - Margins for differing repayment periods added to both the 10-year and 6-month averages:
    - 0.75 percentage point for repayment periods of less than 15 years;
    - 1 percentage point for 15 to 19 years;
    - 1.15 percentage points for 20 to 29 years;
    - 1.25 percentage points for 30 years or more.
- Government undertakings:
  - Not to contract or guarantee nonconcessional external debt under the conditions defined in paragraphs 13 and 14, except for rescheduling of maturities and new debt contracted or guaranteed as specified in paragraph 16.
  - To consult with IMF staff on the terms and concessionality of any proposed new debt in advance of contracting such external debt.
- Quantitative ceilings (performance criteria):
  - A cumulative ceiling beginning January 1, 2013 of up $ 100 million to December 31, 2013, and $ 200 million to December 31, 2014, applies to new nonconcessional external debt other than specified in paragraph 13.
  - This ceiling would be applicable to debt-financing of projects in the infrastructure and energy sectors.
  - The government will:
    - inform staff in a timely manner before contracting any debt of this type;
    - provide information on the terms of the new debt as well as a brief summary of the projects to be financed and their profitability, including an independent evaluation;
    - report the use of funds and project implementation in subsequent MEFPs or to staff.

### H. External Payment Arrears (PC)
- Definition and scope:
  - External arrears are the nonpayment of any interest or principal amounts on their due dates (taking into account relevant contractual grace periods, if any).
  - The performance criterion applies to arrears accumulated under external debt of the government and external debt guaranteed by the government for which the guarantee has been called by creditors, consistent with the definitions under the external debt criterion (paragraph 15).
  - This performance criterion is monitored on a continuous basis.
- Exclusions until restructuring or repayment plan is agreed:
  - arrears accumulated under:
    - the 2032 Eurobonds;
    - the BNI-Standard Bank (London) 2007 and 2008 notes; and
    - the Sphynx Capital Markets 2007 and 2008 notes.
  - No new arrears should be accumulated after the restructuring agreement or repayment plan comes into effect.

### I. Amounts Payable, Including Domestic Payment Arrears (IT and PC)
- Definitions:
  - “Amounts payable” (or “balances outstanding”) include domestic arrears and floating debt and represent the government’s overdue obligations.
  - They are defined as expenditures committed and verified (engagées et liquidées), validated (ordonnancées) by the financial controller (contrôleur financier), assumed (prise en charge) by the public accountant, and subject to payment order but yet to be paid.
  - For the program, these include:
    - (i) bills due and not paid to non financial public and private companies; and
    - (ii) the domestic debt service to commercial banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions.
  - Domestic payment arrears for program purposes:
    - balances outstanding to nonfinancial public and private companies for which the payment date exceeds the deadline for payment stipulated by the administrative regulations of 90 days;
    - domestic debt service to commercial banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions for which the payment date exceeds 30 days.
  - Floating debt refers to balances outstanding for which the payment date does not exceed the deadline for payment stipulated by the administrative regulations (90 days for debt to nonfinancial public and private companies and 30 days for debt service to commercial banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions).
  - Balances outstanding are broken down by payer and type, as well as by maturity and length of overdue period:
    - < 90 days, 90–365 days, > 1 year for nonfinancial companies;
    - <30 days, 30-365 days, > 1 year for financial companies.
- Limits and targets:
  - In general, the stock of floating debt will not exceed three months’ worth of current operating expenses (excluding utilities), monthly debt service due to financial companies, and domestically-financed expenditure.
  - Government undertakings for program purposes:
    - (i) to reduce the stock of amounts payable by CFAF 25 billion in 2012 and CFAF 25 billion in 2013;
    - (ii) not to accumulate new domestic payment arrears in the current fiscal year, and the next fiscal year starting on January 1, 2013.
  - Arrears related to debt service due to commercial banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions:
    - The stock (net of service on claims on the government that these entities may acquire from third parties as of October 1, 2012) on December 31, 2012 should not exceed its level as of September 30, 2012;
    - At the end of each quarter, the stock of arrears to commercial banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions (net of service on claims on the government that these entities may acquire from third parties from the 1st day of the quarter) should not exceed the level of the previous quarter.

### III. Memorandum Items
- A. Net Bank Claims on the Government:
  - Defined as the difference between government debts and government claims with the central bank and commercial banks.
  - Coverage is that used by the BCEAO, and is the same as that shown in the net government position (NGP).
- B. External Financing (Definitions):
  - Project grants: non-repayable money or goods intended for the financing of a certain project.
  - Program grants: non-repayable money or goods not intended for the financing of a specific project.
  - Project loans: repayable money or goods received from a donor to finance a specific project, on which interest is charged.
  - Program loans: repayable money or goods received from a donor and not intended for the financing of a specific project, on which interest is charged.

### III. Program Monitoring and Data Reporting
- Reporting and timing:
  - A quarterly assessment report on the monitoring of the quantitative performance criteria, indicative targets, and structural benchmarks will be produced by the authorities within 45 days of the end of each quarter.
  - The government will report the information specified in Table 2 on a monthly basis, within 45 days of month-end or quarter-end, unless otherwise indicated.
  - Tables F.3.1, F.3.2, and F.3.3 are updated to take into account the expanded coverage of arrears.
  - The BCEAO will report final data within 45 days of the end of the period in question. The information provided will include a complete, itemized listing of public sector liabilities and assets with:
    - (i) the BCEAO;
    - (ii) the National Investment Bank (Banque Nationale d’Investissement, or BNI);
    - (iii) and the banking sector (including the BNI).
  - The authorities will consult with the Fund staff on any proposed new external debt contracts.
  - The authorities will inform the Fund staff, following signature, of any new external debt contracted or guaranteed by the government, including the terms of these contracts.
  - Data on new external debt, the amount outstanding, and the accumulation and repayment of external payment arrears will be reported monthly within six weeks of the end of each month.

*Content derived from the supplied IMF chapter text.*

### 28.     More generally, the authorities will report to the IMF staff any information needed for

### _cr12332 - 28.     More generally, the authorities will report to the IMF staff any information needed for

### Reporting and Monitoring Requirement
- "More generally, the authorities will report to the IMF staff any information needed for effective monitoring of the implementation of economic policies."

### Pro-Poor and Social Spending (Table 1: Côte d'ivoire: Pro-Poor Spending (incl. Social Spending), 2009–13) — Key figures (Billion CFA Francs)
- TOTAL: 843.0, 885.2, 843.4, 980.0, 1,152.8
- 1 Agriculture and rural development: 49.2, 39.1, 35.2, 41.4, 34.8
  - General administration: 8.5, 9.2, 7.0, 7.7, 8.2
  - Agriculture promotion and development program: 10.6, 10.8, 10.8, 12.0, 8.1
  - Training of supervisory staff: 8.4, 8.3, 10.3, 8.4, 9.3
  - Water system works: 1.5, 4.0, 3.0, 3.4, 0.8
  - Other: 20.2, 6.8, 4.1, 10.0, 8.4
- 2 Fishing and animal husbandry: 6.7, 5.9, 4.0, 4.7, 4.2
  - General administration: 3.5, 3.9, 2.6, 2.7, 3.5
  - Milk production and livestock farming: 2.3, 1.8, 1.2, 1.5, 0.8
  - Fishing and aquaculture: 1.0, 0.2, 0.1, 0.5, 0.0
- 3 Education: 533.1, 590.1, 529.2, 628.6, 757.4
  - General administration: 19.5, 24.9, 24.7, 23.6, 8.8
  - Pre-schooling and primary education: 336.7, 366.7, 301.1, 398.2, 438.0
  - Literacy: 0.2, 0.2, 0.5, 0.6, 0.5
  - Secondary education and vocational training: 83.0, 83.8, 74.2, 80.3, 118.2
  - University and research: 93.7, 114.5, 117.0, 113.0, 145.5
  - Emergency Presidential Program: 11.7, 12.8, 46.5
- 4 Health: 118.4, 113.6, 120.2, 138.0, 172.4
  - General administration: 45.8, 47.7, 49.2, 55.4, 73.2
  - Primary health system: 30.7, 30.0, 25.2, 34.8, 38.6
  - Preventive healthcare (enlarged vaccination program): 1.9, 1.4, 0.4, 0.8, 0.8
  - Disease-fighting programs: 1.7, 1.5, 1.1, 1.4, 1.4
  - Infant health and nutrition: 0.8, 0.4, 0.4, 0.6, 0.5
  - HIV/Aids: 10.8, 5.9, 6.9, 8.0, 5.5
  - Health centers and specialized programs: 26.6, 26.6, 25.7, 25.1, 32.4
  - Emergency Presidential Program: 11.3, 12.0, 20.0
- 5 Water: 20.4, 19.8, 36.3, 39.9, 45.6
  - Access to drinking water and de-contamination: 4.9, 6.0, 10.2, 10.7, 1.3
  - Environmental protection spending: 15.5, 13.8, 13.1, 13.0, 17.3
  - Emergency Presidential Program: 13.0, 16.2, 27.0
- 6 Energy: 16.5, 9.7, 8.8, 17.0, 22.3
- 7 Roads: 39.1, 45.4, 33.4, 47.1, 47.1
- 8 Social spending: 13.6, 15.0, 24.7, 14.1, 17.3
  - General administration: 8.6, 9.8, 8.9, 9.0, 12.9
  - Training for women: 0.6, 0.7, 0.5, 0.7, 0.5
  - Orphanages, day nurseries, and social centers: 1.5, 2.0, 1.9, 2.5, 2.0
  - Training for support personnel: 1.7, 1.9, 1.6, 1.3, 1.7
  - Indigents and victims of war or disaster: 1.2, 0.5, 1.8, 0.7, 0.3
- 9 Decentralization: 35.1, 32.0, 29.0, 32.1, 29.9
- 10 Reconstruction: 1.4, 2.6, 5.6, 1.2, 13.0
- 11 Other poverty-fighting spending: 9.6, 11.9, 16.8, 15.9, 8.8
- Source: Ivorian authorities.

### Document Transmittals — Reporting Requirements and Frequency (Table 2)
- General: Table R.1: Cyclical Indicators (M)
- Macroeconomic and national accounts: Table R.2.1: Macroeconomic Framework (AN); Table R.2.2: Supply-use accounts, current francs (AN); Table R.2.3: GDP in francs (n-1): annual variation in volume (AN); Table R.2.4: GDP deflators year (n-1) (AN); Table R.2.5: Macroeconomic framework, underlying assumptions (AN)
- Prices: Table R3: Price index (M)
- Energy sector (selected): Table R.4.1: Summary crude oil and gas production (M); Table R.4.6: Crude oil and gas – volume, price, and financial flows (M); Table R.4.11: Financial flows in cash, Electricity Sector Asset Management Company (SOGEPE) (M); Table R.4.12: Operating financial flows, SOGEPE (Q); Table R.4.13: Crude oil: Shipment report (Q)
- Coffee/cocoa sector (selected): Table R.5.1: Quasi-fiscal levies and fees, and utilization – operations (Q); Table R.5.3: Investments in funds managed by the Coffee/Cocoa Committee (Q); Table R.5.4: Bank accounts (Q)
- Balance of Payments (selected): Table B.1.1: Summary table of foreign trade (AN); Table B.1.2: Imports (source DGD - monthly) (M); Table B.1.3: Exports (source DGD - monthly) (M); Table B2.1: Detailed balance of payments (including capital account) CFA francs (AN)
- Monetary sector (selected): Table M.1: Banks (M); Table M.2: Summary BCEAO position (M); Table M.3: Net government position (M); Table M.5: Integrated Monetary Survey (M)
- Fiscal sector (selected): Table F.1: Table of government financial operations (TOFE) (M); Table F.2: Estimated government tax revenue (M)
- Domestic arrears and Treasury balances: Table F.3.1: Domestic arrears (M); Table F.3.2: Consolidated Treasury balances outstanding (M); Table F.3.3: Treasury balances outstanding - targets/execution (M)
- Domestic and foreign debt (selected): Table F.4.1: Domestic debt (M); Table F.5.1: Foreign debt (M); Table F.5.4: Projected debt service (Q)
- Post-crisis and Treasury advances: Table F.6: Crisis- and election-related expenditures (M); Table F.7.1: Advances from the Treasury (M)
- Investment and social/pro-poor: Table F.8: Investment expenditures (M); Table F.9.1: Education and health expenditures – other (M); Table F.9.5: Execution of pro-poor expenditures (M); Table F.9.6: Budget execution report (SIGFIP) detail/category (Q)
- VAT and financing: Table F.14.1: Summary statistical statement of VAT credit refunds (monthly) (M); Table F.15.1: Issues/redemptions of public debt (M)
- Wage bill and special accounts: Table F.16.1: Projected wage bill (Q); Table F.17.1: ECOWAS levy (PCC) (AN); Table F.18: Proceeds from privatization and sale of assets (AN)
- Cash flow: Table F.20.1: Annual cash flow, resources/expenditures plan (AN); Table F.20.2: Execution of cash flow plan (M); Table F.20.3: Overall balance of Treasury accounts

### IMF — Relations with Côte d’Ivoire (As of September 30, 2012) — Key data
- I. Membership Status: Joined: March 11, 1963. Article VIII
- II. General Resources Account (SDR Million; %Quota): Quota 325.20 100.00; Fund holdings of currency (Exchange Rate) 324.29 99.72; Reserve Tranche Position 0.92 0.28
- III. SDR Department (SDR Million; %Allocation): Net cumulative allocation 310.90 100.00; Holdings 272.83 87.75
- IV. Outstanding Purchases and Loans (SDR Million; %Quota): RCF loans 81.30 25.00; ECF Arrangements 365.94 112.53
- V. Latest Financial Arrangements (Type / Date of Arrangement / Expiration Date / Amount Approved (SDR Million) / Amount Drawn (SDR Million)):
  - ECF Nov 04, 2011 Nov 03, 2014 390.24   146.34
  - ECF 1/ Mar 27, 2009 June 23, 2011 373.98 230.89
  - ECF 1/ Mar 29, 2002 Mar 28, 2005 292.68   58.54
- VI. Projected Payments to Fund (without HIPC Assistance) (SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):
  - Principal: 4.64 39.02 46.18 (presented across years 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 in the table)
  - Charges/Interest: 0.01 0.03 1.15 1.10 0.99
  - Total: 0.01 0.03 5.79 40.12 47.16
- VII. Implementation of HIPC Initiative:
  - Decision point date Mar 1998 Apr 2009
  - Assistance committed by all creditors (US$ Million): 345.00 3,109.58
  - Of which: IMF assistance (US$ million) 22.50 38.66
  - (SDR equivalent in millions) 16.70 25.85
  - Completion point date -- June 2012
- VIII. MDRI: Not Applicable
- IX. PCDR: Not Applicable
- X. Safeguards Assessments:
  - Safeguards assessment of the BCEAO completed on March 1, 2010; 2010 update found operational controls in place and recommended strengthening governance by addition of an audit committee; such committee was established after the assessment.
- XI. Exchange Arrangements:
  - Member of WAEMU; common currency CFA franc pegged to the euro at the rate of €1 = CFAF 655.957.
- XII. Article IV Consultation:
  - On the standard 24-month cycle; Executive Board completed the 2011 consultation in November 2011.
- XIII. Technical Assistance — Selected entries by year and focus:
  - 2010: Financial sector (January 2010) Assessment and public debt management, financial sector reforms; Customs administration (February 2010) Risk analysis and management; Public Finance Management (February 2010) Medium term budgeting; Tax administration (March 2010) Development of IT strategy (3/3); National accounts (April 2010) Training for new base year implementation; Banking supervision (June 2010) Preparation of the CODESFI workshop; Public Finance Statistics (November 2010) Training for the new GFS nomenclature.
  - 2011: Multitopic (July) Strengthen capacities for TOFE and GFS guideline implementation; Debt management (July) Advice on treatment of domestic debt; FSAP follow up (August, November) Advice on financial sector development strategy and public debt management; National accounts (December) Assessment of the possibility to develop quarterly national accounts (QNA).
  - 2012: Government financial statistics (January/February, November/December) TOFE follow-up; Tax administration (January; September) Workshop; Customs (February) Workshop; Debt Management (May, September) Medium Term Debt Strategy (MTDS); Tax policy (July/August) Review and diagnosis.
  - 2013 planned: Public expenditure management (January) Budgeting strategy; Cash management (February); National accounts (January) Set up quarterly national accounts; Government Finance Statistics (March) Migration to GFSM 2001.
- XIV. Resident Representative:
  - A Fund resident representative first posted in Abidjan in 1984; interruptions in 2005–06 and 2010–11; continuously assigned since May 2011.

### Joint Bank-Fund Work Program, 2011–12 — Selected items and timing
- IMF program milestones:
  - 2nd ECF review under ECF: September 2012 November 2012
  - 3rd ECF review: March 2013 May 2013
- IMF Technical Assistance planned missions (provisional):
  - Public expenditure management January 2013 January 2013
  - Customs January 2013 January 2013
  - Cash management February 2013 February 2013
  - National accounts January 2013 January 2013
  - Government Finance Statistics (March) March 2013 March 2013
  - AML/CFT diagnostic March 2013 March 2013
- Bank-Fund coordination:
  - Fund requests to Bank: Periodic updates on budget implications of reforms in the civil service, coffee/cocoa sector, electricity sector, financial sector, as well as an infrastructure master plan (Ongoing).
  - Bank requests to Fund: Regular updates on macro-economic and fiscal projections (Ongoing).
  - Joint products: Debt management strategy workshop (Q2, 2012).

### African Development Bank (AfDB) Group Operations and Strategy in Côte d’Ivoire — Key points
- AfDB presence since 1971: 62 approved operations; 41 fully completed; 14 cancelled; 7 ongoing (2 newly approved).
- Total net commitment: UA 1,330.3 million (CFA F 1012 billion).
- Sector distribution (by order of importance): rural development and agriculture 26.2%; infrastructure 20.4%; multi-sector 16.7%; social sector 16.5%; energy, water and telecommunications 15.6%.
- Financing windows: Mainly ADB window (more than 70%); 94.4% directed to public sector.
- Portfolio actions post-inactivity: cancelled outstanding balance of eight old operations; restructured two operations (PADER-Moyen-Comoé and PVRH) in early June 2011.
- Recent approvals since post-election crisis: three operations totaling nearly UA 177 million (CFA F 130 billion) — Emergency Programme to Restore Basic Social and Administrative Services (PURSSAB); agricultural infrastructure support project in the region of Moyen Comoé; Project construction of bridge toll Henri Konan BEDIE (Private sector).
- Active portfolio after approvals: seven operations for a total amount of commitments of nearly UA 222.7 million (CFA F 170 billion).

*Source: Ivorian authorities; International Monetary Fund — Informational Annex, November 15, 2012.*

### 1. Post-Crisis Multisector

### 1. Post-Crisis Multisector

### Project portfolio and status (selected projects)
- Institutional Support Project (PAIMSC)
  - Objectives: (i) rehabilitation of school and health infrastructures; and (ii) institutional capacity building and caring for women who are victims of violence.
  - Disbursement rate: 88 percent.
  - Undisbursed balance: UA 1.5 million.
  - Extension granted to 31 December 2011.

- Targeted Capacity Building Support
  - Approved: December 2009 under the Fragile States Facility.
  - Disbursement rate: 57 percent.
  - Objectives: (i) strengthen coordination framework for government interventions; (ii) support implementation of the PRSP; (iii) improve efficiency of public financial management; (iv) strengthen good governance.

- Humanitarian assistance to victims of post-electoral violence
  - Amount: USD 1 million (noted as 0.6 in table context).
  - Target: victims of violence, particularly in the west of the country.
  - Management: Red Cross International Committee.

- Gourou Basin Integrated Management Project (Sanitation of Indenié junction and the Lagoon)
  - Approved grant: UA 23 million (ADF Board of Directors on November 24, 2010).
  - Signing delayed during elections; grant put in place in June, 2011.
  - Effective launch expected in October 2011.

- Emergency Programme to Restore Basic Social and Administrative Services (PURSSAB) and Targeted support to strengthen the capacity of the administration
  - Total: UA 100.5 (95 + 5.5).
  - Approved: June 3, 2011.
  - Purpose: contribute to national budget to restore basic social and administrative services, social cohesion and reconciliation; restore basic health, educational and social welfare services, water and sanitation networks, public administration services, and dialogue/social cohesion mechanisms.
  - Budget support disbursed: UA 95 million.
  - Remaining reserved for capacity building: UA 5.5 million (to be disbursed as needs arise on government requests).

- Agricultural infrastructure support project in Indéné-Djuablin Région (PAIA-ID)
  - Amount: UA 21.6 million.
  - Objective: improve food security and reduce poverty in rural areas; increase production and productivity of major crops; improve marketing conditions.

- Project construction of bridge toll Henri Konan Bédié
  - Amount: UA 50 (noted in list) and elsewhere as 50.1 (approved).
  - Structure: public private partnership (PPP) based on a Build Operate Transfer (BOT) concession of 30 years.
  - Purpose: build a toll bridge over the Ebrié Lagoon linking South and North shores of Abidjan.

### AfDB strategy for re-engagement and indicative work program (2012–13)
- Strategy pillars (2011–12):
  - (i) restoring infrastructure and basic social services;
  - (ii) improving governance and capacity building.
- A full Country Strategy Paper is planned for 2013–17 to assist with strong and inclusive growth.
- Indicative Work Program entries (amounts in UA million, year):
  - Agricultural infrastructure support project in Indéné-Djuablin Région (PAIA-ID): 21.6 (approved), 2012.
  - Project construction of bridge toll Henri Konan BÉDIÉ: 50.1 (approved), 2012.
  - Project to support training and professional integration: 16.5, 2013.
  - Support Project cadastre: TBD, 2013.
  - Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea interconnection Project (Multinational): 122.7 (of which 33.4 from Côte d’Ivoire allocation), 2012.
  - Study to be conducted in collaboration with CIRES and coffee/cocoa-related sector institutions: TBD, 2013.

### Statistical issues and data adequacy (As of October 2012)
- General assessment: Data provision has some shortcomings, but is broadly adequate for surveillance. Weaknesses: national accounts, balance of payments, public finance statistics, and reconciliation of fiscal and monetary data.
- National accounts:
  - Comprehensive national accounts data for 1996 onwards compiled in line with 1993 SNA methodologies, using 1996 as base year.
  - Technical assistance from AFRITAC West to implement a new base year and update implicit deflators.
- Price statistics:
  - Harmonized CPI adopted by all WAEMU members.
  - New base year (2008) adopted in 2010.
- Labor market statistics:
  - No such statistics are published regularly.
- Government finance statistics:
  - Authorities provide annual data on budgetary central government for publication.
  - No monthly or quarterly fiscal data published, though made available to IMF African Department; metadata lacking.
  - Authorities committed to addressing weaknesses in coverage of general government units and public enterprises; seeking Afritac assistance.
  - Report on government financial operations over crisis period (January–April 2011) still not available.
- Monetary and financial sector statistics:
  - Monetary data prepared by national agency of BCEAO and released by BCEAO headquarters.
  - Shortcomings common to WAEMU members and systemic issues specific to Côte d’Ivoire’s bank and nonbank financing of central government and public sector operations.
  - Recent improvements in timeliness of reporting on depository corporations and interest rates.
  - BCEAO and private banks struggling to clear operations executed when national BCEAO office was officially closed.
- External sector statistics:
  - National BCEAO agency in Abidjan compiles annual balance of payments statistics and international investment position.
  - Merchandise trade monitored satisfactorily by customs computer system.
  - Coverage shortcomings: services and transfers (particularly workers’ remittances); foreign assets of private nonbanking sector; reporting of private capital flows (especially FDI); insufficient information on private debt stocks and debt service flows.
- Data Standards and Quality:
  - Côte d’Ivoire has participated in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) since May 2000 and posted metadata on the Data Standards Bulletin Board.
  - No data ROSC available.
- Reporting to STA:
  - Côte d’Ivoire regularly reports data to STA for re-dissemination in IMF statistical publications.
- Selected data-frequency table (dates preserved as in source):
  - International Reserve Assets and Reserve Liabilities of the Monetary Authorities: Date of latest observation 08/12; Date received 10/15; Frequency of Data M; Frequency of Reporting M; Frequency of Publication M.
  - Reserve/Base Money: 08/12; 10/15; M; M; M.
  - Broad Money: 08/12; 10/15; M; M; M.
  - Central Bank Balance Sheet: 08/12; 10/15; M; M; M.
  - Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Banking System: 08/12; 10/15; M; M; M.
  - Interest Rates: 08/12; 10/15; I; M; M.
  - Consumer Price Index: 09/12; 10/15; M; M; M.
  - Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing – General Government: 08/12; 10/15; M; M; M.
  - Stocks of Central Government and Central Government-Guaranteed Debt: 06/12; 09/30; M; M; M.
  - External Current Account Balance: 12/11; 09/30; A; A; A.
  - Exports and Imports of Goods and Services: 06/12; 09/30; A; A; A.
  - GDP/GNP: 2011; 03/30; A; A; A.
  - Gross External Debt: 06/2012; 09/30; M; M; M.
  - Note on frequency codes: Daily (D), weekly (W), monthly (M), quarterly (Q), annually (A), irregular (I); and not available (NA).

### Joint IMF–IDA Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) — assessment and baseline assumptions
- Overall assessment:
  - Côte d’Ivoire remains at a moderate risk of debt distress (assessment unchanged from June 2012).
  - The DSA updates the June 2012 joint IMF/IDA DSA to integrate planned new external nonconcessional borrowing.
- New nonconcessional borrowing included in baseline:
  - Almost US$250 million of additional nonconcessional borrowing over 2013–14.
  - Equivalent to 0.57 percent of GDP in 2013 and 0.35 percent of GDP in 2014.
  - Largely to finance infrastructure and energy projects.
- Debt indicators:
  - All external debt indicators remain under indicative thresholds throughout projection period, except present value of debt-to-GDP, which breaches its threshold at the beginning of the projection period.
  - Inclusion of domestic debt raises debt burden indicators somewhat, but does not alter overall assessment.
- External debt stock dynamics:
  - Stock of public and publicly guaranteed external debt projected to decline by one-third from 55.1 percent of GDP at end-2011 to 33.9 percent in 2012.
  - At end-2012, projected public external debt composition: bilateral creditors 55.9 percent; commercial creditors 31.3 percent; multilateral creditors 12.8 percent.
  - If French ODA claims converted into C2D debt-for-development swaps considered cancellation, drop in post-HIPC completion point debt stock in 2012 would be about two-thirds; outstanding claims amount to some €2.9 billion or $3.6 billion at end-2012.
- Box 1 — Changes since June 2012 LIC-DSA:
  - New discount rate for present values reduced from 4 percent to 3 percent (mandated by Fund policy); lower discount rate raises present value of debt.
  - Higher GDP growth rates projected, reflecting stepped-up public investment and improved business environment.
  - Public investment projections: about 3 percent of GDP in 2010–11; 5.4 percent in 2012; 7.5 percent of GDP in 2013; 8.0 percent of GDP by 2017.
  - For 2013–14, DSA includes almost US$250 million of new nonconcessional borrowing (0.57 percent of GDP in 2013, 0.35 percent of GDP in 2014) at assumed terms: interest rate of 8 percent, maturity of 6 years including a grace period of 1 year.
- Box 2 — Key baseline macroeconomic assumptions:
  - Real GDP growth: rebound to around 8.6 percent in 2012 following a 4.7 percent decline in 2011; growth expected to average 7.1 percent over 2013–17 and 5.3 percent over 2018–32.
  - Inflation: GDP deflator (in U.S. dollars) expected to stabilize around 3 percent; CPI inflation by WAEMU rules should not exceed 3 percent.
  - Fiscal policy: medium-term government expects to achieve a primary basic surplus of 0.2 percent of GDP on average.
  - Revenues and expenditures:
    - Total revenues (excluding grants) projected to increase to 20.8 percent of GDP in 2017 and 23.0 percent of GDP by 2032.
    - Government expenditures projected to increase to 25.3 percent of GDP in 2017 and 26.0 percent of GDP by 2032.
  - External financing:
    - Grants expected to decline from 1.8 percent of GDP in 2013 to 1.6 percent of GDP in 2017, then stabilize around 0.4 percent of GDP in long run.
    - Residual external financing needs assumed to be covered by concessional and commercial borrowing.
    - During remaining period of ECF arrangement: almost US$250 million of new nonconcessional borrowing over 2013–14 (0.57 percent of GDP in 2013, 0.35 percent of GDP in 2014).

*Prepared by the Staffs of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank (excerpt from _cr12332 - 1. Post-Crisis Multisector).*

### 0.35 percent of GDP in 2014). For 2015–17 the main source of new borrowing continues to be

### _cr12332 - 0.35 percent of GDP in 2014). For 2015–17 the main source of new borrowing continues to be

### Baseline assumptions
- The LIC-DSA assumptions are broadly consistent with those used in the June 2012 LIC-DSA, with three differences: a lower discount rate used in the DSA, a higher projected growth rate, and a nonconcessional borrowing window in 2013–14.
- FDI is expected to rise rapidly over the medium term and gradually increase over the long term, reflecting an improved investment climate and rising confidence.
- Recent political change in Côte d’Ivoire is expected to result in significantly higher flows of grants and borrowing to finance public investment and jumpstart growth.
- There is uncertainty whether private sector interest (including for PPP projects) will translate into actual investment.

### External current account, trade volumes, and FDI
- External current account (excluding official transfers):
  - surplus of 8.1 percent of GDP in 2011
  - deficit of 5.4 percent of GDP in 2017
  - deficit of 6.5 percent of GDP in 2032
  - average deficit of 5.7 percent of GDP over 2018–32
- Export volumes:
  - decline by 3.9 percent in 2011
  - expected to increase on average by 8.2 percent per year thereafter
- Import volumes:
  - decline by 23.9 percent in 2011
  - expected to grow on average by 6.9 percent over the long term
  - import dynamics reflect higher levels of investment
- FDI net inflows:
  - 1.1 percent of GDP in 2011
  - projected to rise to 3.1 percent in 2016
  - 3.3 percent in 2032
- External arrears:
  - All external arrears to official bilateral creditors assumed cleared over 2012–14
  - Arrears to commercial creditors assumed restructured
- Debt service projections assume HIPC completion point, MDRI and beyond-HIPC debt relief.

### External debt sustainability analysis (baseline results)
- Under the baseline scenario:
  - External debt and debt service indicators remain below their relevant indicative thresholds throughout the projection period with one short-lived exception.
  - The PV of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt relative to GDP declines over the projection period and after 2013 stays below the threshold.
  - In 2012 the PV of PPG debt-to-GDP indicator is 4 percentage points above the policy threshold (whereas in the June 2012 LIC-DSA it was below), reflecting an upward revision in the end-2012 debt stock and the use of a lower discount rate.
  - PVs of PPG debt relative to exports and to revenue stay below their indicative thresholds throughout the projection period.
- Debt service ratios:
  - Remain below their indicative thresholds over the projection period.
  - Projected to rise from exceptionally low levels in the medium term and then stabilize.
  - Drivers of debt service dynamics include:
    - end of exceptional debt service relief from Paris Club creditors and the start of full debt service payments after the completion point;
    - step-up profile of debt service on Eurobonds beginning to rise in 2012 for several years;
    - repayment of arrears on the Eurobond;
    - debt service on an assumed restructuring of arrears to other commercial creditors.
- Baseline similarity:
  - Baseline scenario very similar to June LIC-DSA due to broad consistency of assumptions and small amount of additional nonconcessional borrowing during 2013–14.

### External debt vulnerabilities and stress tests
- Vulnerabilities:
  - External debt outlook subject to considerable vulnerabilities, especially until the middle of the projection period.
  - Sensitivity analysis uses regional averages and standard deviations due to distortions caused by civil conflict.
- Stress test outcomes:
  - Sensitivity tests yield high levels of debt and debt service compared to baseline.
  - Debt-to-GDP indicator breaches the policy threshold under most stress tests; debt-to-exports and debt-to–revenue indicators breach less frequently.
  - Most breaches are temporary: thresholds breached up to the middle of the projection period and fall well below them by the end, largely reflecting full repayment of the emergency 2011 loan from France and of claims under the C2D debt for development program.
  - When key variables are set at their historical averages for the entire projection period, and under a combination of one-half standard deviation shocks to real GDP growth, exports, GDP deflator, and net non-debt creating flows:
    - The debt-to-GDP breach is more persistent.
    - The debt service-to-revenue indicator, under the same two scenarios, rises close to or breaches the indicative threshold for about 10 years (combination shock).
- C2D program effects:
  - Claims under C2D account for almost half of the existing debt stock.
  - The share of debt service paid under C2D (returned in the form of a grant) still accounts for almost 20 percent of total debt service in 2025.
  - C2D provides flexibility in timing and amounts of debt service and is periodically reviewed by authorities and AFD to account for capacity to pay and project implementation.

### Public sector debt sustainability (including domestic debt)
- Baseline with domestic debt included:
  - Debt situation deteriorates modestly when domestic public debt is included.
  - PV of total public debt declines from 67.4 percent of GDP in 2011 to 26.2 percent of GDP at the end of the projection period.
  - Debt service on total debt increases throughout the projection period, reflecting external debt service trends.
  - Initial spike in debt service in 2013–14 accentuated by large redemption payments on treasury bills and bonds issued in late 2011 and early 2012 (issued in exchange of treasury bills automatically rolled over with accrued interest during the post-election crisis).
  - Authorities intend to replace these securities with ones with longer maturities to smooth future domestic debt service.
- Sensitivity to shocks:
  - Public debt indicators most sensitive to GDP growth assumptions.
  - If GDP growth were one standard deviation lower than its historical average, by the middle of the projection period:
    - PV of total debt-to-GDP would be higher than the baseline by 50 percentage points.
    - PV of total debt-to-revenue would be higher than the baseline by 218 percentage points.
    - Total debt service-to-revenue would be higher than the baseline by 21 percentage points.
  - These results highlight the need to foster conditions conducive to sustained growth.

### Conclusion and policy recommendations
- Risk assessment:
  - Côte d’Ivoire remains at moderate risk of debt distress (same assessment as June 2012 LIC-DSA).
  - Under the baseline, all debt burden indicators remain below policy-dependent thresholds through the projection period except the PV of debt-to-GDP ratio, which breaches its threshold at the beginning of the projection period.
  - Alternative scenarios and bound tests show vulnerabilities: PV of debt-to-GDP breaches threshold when key macro variables set at historical values; most indicators briefly breach thresholds under extreme shocks; debt service-to-revenue breach lasts longer.
  - Inclusion of domestic debt moderately weakens the outlook but does not alter the moderate risk rating.
- Policy recommendations:
  - Maintain sound macroeconomic policies and prudent debt management to preserve sustainable external debt position.
  - Exhaust sources of concessional financing before borrowing on nonconcessional terms.
  - Improve project selection and implementation capacity.
  - Foster sustained growth, strong investment in sound projects, solid export and fiscal revenue performance.
  - Monitor and integrate sovereign guarantees for PPPs into authorities’ debt management strategy; authorities intend to minimize large sovereign guarantees in future PPPs.

*IMF staff assessment and LIC-DSA results as presented in the source text.*

### 13. The authorities broadly agreed with the DSA and the conclusions therein. They noted

### _cr12332 - 13. The authorities broadly agreed with the DSA and the conclusions therein. They noted

### Authorities' response to the DSA and financing intentions
- The authorities broadly agreed with the DSA and the conclusions therein.
- They noted the terms on new nonconcessional debt assumed for the DSA and emphasized their intention to seek any such financing on the most favorable terms possible in order to contain its impact on Côte d’Ivoire’s debt burden.
- They also noted that the level of investment in the DSA’s macroeconomic framework differed from that in their National Development Plan and that they would be seeking financing for the NDP at a Consultative Group meeting in early December 2012.
- To date no such guarantees exist.

### DSA indicators and stress-test framework (selected findings)
- Figure annotations indicate multiple indicators of public and publicly guaranteed external debt under alternative scenarios for 2012-2032, including:
  - Debt Accumulation, PV of debt-to-GDP ratio, PV of debt-to-exports ratio, PV of debt-to-revenue ratio, Debt service-to-exports ratio, and Debt service-to-revenue ratio.
- The most extreme stress test is defined as the test that yields the highest ratio in 2022; depending on the panel it corresponds to:
  - Combination shock (figure b, d, f), Exports shock (figure c, e).
- Table 1a (External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2009-2032) selected values:
  - External debt (nominal) series includes: 81.2; 76.3; 79.3; 57.3; 54.0; 50.6; 47.8; 44.9; 41.9; 28.4; 16.2.
  - o/w public and publicly guaranteed (PPG): 53.9; 50.6; 55.1; 33.4; 32.2; 31.0; 29.9; 28.7; 27.3; 19.7; 14.1.
  - Change in external debt: -8.2; -4.9; 3.0; -22.1; -3.3; -3.3; -2.8; -2.9; -3.0; -2.4; -1.0.
  - Identified net debt-creating flows: -4.9; -5.3; -14.0; -6.2; -3.8; -2.8; -2.6; -1.9; -1.3; 0.4; 2.0.
  - Endogenous debt dynamics: 6.1; 0.1; -1.3; -5.0; -2.1; -1.5; -1.5; -1.3; -1.3; -0.4; 0.1.
  - Contribution from nominal interest rate: 2.1; 1.8; 2.3; 1.9; 2.2; 2.1; 1.7; 1.6; 1.4; 1.1; 0.9.
  - Contribution from real GDP growth: -3.5; -1.9; 3.4; -6.8; -4.3; -3.6; -3.2; -3.0; -2.7; -1.5; -0.8.
  - PV of external debt (selected): 75.6; 58.2; 54.5; 50.1; 46.6; 43.4; 40.3; 28.3; 17.2.
  - PV of PPG external debt (selected): 51.4; 34.3; 32.7; 30.4; 28.8; 27.2; 25.7; 19.6; 15.1.
  - PV of PPG external debt in percent of exports (selected): 93.6; 67.0; 63.3; 58.6; 55.6; 53.0; 50.2; 33.8; 24.7.
  - PV of PPG external debt in percent of government revenues (selected): 344.6; 171.6; 164.3; 151.3; 142.0; 132.8; 124.0; 91.2; 65.5.
  - Debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent): 18.8; 14.4; 9.6; 7.5; 8.7; 8.7; 9.0; 9.2; 9.2; 7.5; 6.5.
  - PPG debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent): 4.6; 3.4; 5.3; 2.1; 3.8; 4.7; 5.0; 5.0; 5.2; 4.8; 5.2.
  - PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent): 12.3; 9.5; 19.5; 5.4; 9.8; 12.0; 12.8; 12.5; 12.9; 13.1; 13.7.
  - Total gross financing need (Billions of U.S. dollars): 0.8; 1.6; -0.8; 1.6; 1.7; 1.9; 2.0; 2.3; 2.6; 3.5; 8.1.
  - Non-interest current account deficit that stabilizes debt ratio: -1.1; 0.8; -14.6; 23.5; 4.7; 5.2; 5.0; 5.5; 6.2; 6.7; 6.6.
- Key macroeconomic assumptions (selected series):
  - Real GDP growth (in percent) series includes: 3.7; 2.4; -4.7; 0.6; 2.5; 8.6; 8.0; 7.3; 7.0; 6.7; 6.5; 7.3; 5.1; 5.1; 5.3.
  - GDP deflator in US dollar terms (change in percent) includes: -7.8; -0.3; 10.1; 8.3; 8.3; -8.1; 0.0; 1.6; 1.4; 1.5; 1.8; -0.3; 2.9; 4.9; 3.5.
  - Effective interest rate (percent) series includes: 2.2; 2.2; 3.1; 3.4; 1.1; 2.4; 4.1; 4.2; 3.7; 3.7; 3.4; 3.6; 3.9; 6.0; 4.5.
  - Growth of exports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent) includes: -0.1; 8.6; 6.4; 11.9; 9.1; -6.9; 9.2; 9.5; 8.1; 7.5; 8.2; 5.9; 10.9; 10.2; 10.2.
  - Growth of imports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent) includes: -9.4; 20.0; -7.6; 11.3; 12.6; 19.4; 13.0; 9.0; 8.3; 8.5; 8.5; 11.1; 11.7; 10.6; 10.6.
  - Grant element of new public sector borrowing (in percent) (selected): 37.1; 10.3; 30.6; 24.0; 17.4; 10.5; 21.6; -3.9; -18.9; -10.4.
  - Government revenues (excluding grants, in percent of GDP): 18.9; 19.2; 14.9; 20.0; 19.9; 20.1; 20.3; 20.5; 20.8; 21.5; 23.0; 22.0.
  - Aid flows (in Billions of US dollars) (selected): 0.1; 0.1; 0.1; 0.2; 0.8; 1.1; 1.1; 1.0; 1.0; 0.8; 0.5.
  - Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of GDP) (selected): 0.7; 2.1; 2.9; 2.6; 2.2; 1.9; 1.0; -0.2; 0.6.
  - Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of external financing) (selected): 66.5; 42.8; 57.6; 51.7; 48.1; 42.7; 29.0; -5.7; 14.6.
- Memorandum items:
  - Nominal GDP (Billions of US dollars) series includes: 22.5; 23.0; 24.1; 24.1; 26.0; 28.3; 30.7; 33.3; 36.1; 53.1; 130.4.
  - PV of PPG external debt (in Billions of US dollars) series includes: 11.7; 8.1; 8.5; 8.6; 8.8; 9.0; 9.3; 10.4; 19.4.
  - Gross remittances (Billions of US dollars) series includes negative values: -0.6; -0.5; -0.5; -0.5; -0.6; -0.6; -0.7; -0.7; -0.9; -1.4; -3.3.
- Sensitivity analyses (Table 1b and Table 2b) present multiple scenario outcomes (Baseline; A1, A2; B1–B6) for PV debt-to-GDP, PV debt-to-exports, PV debt-to-revenue, and Debt service-to-revenue with many scenario-specific numeric paths (examples preserved in source tables).

### IMF Executive Board decision and ECF disbursement
- Press Release No.12/466 — November 30, 2012:
  - IMF Executive Board completed the second review under the ECF and approved a disbursement equivalent to SDR 65.04 million (about US$99.8 million).
  - Total disbursements so far under the arrangement amount to SDR 211.38 million (about US$324.4 million).
  - The ECF arrangement was approved on November 4, 2011 in an amount equivalent to SDR 390.24 million (about US$ 598.9 million), representing 120 percent of Côte d’Ivoire’s quota in the IMF.
- Quoted IMF official:
  - Growth now expected to increase by some 8½ percent in 2012 with modest inflation.
  - Program performance through June 2012 was satisfactory with all performance criteria met.
  - Cocoa sector reforms expected to increase purchasing power of farmers and reduce rural poverty.
  - The authorities’ ambitious investment plan for 2013 should stimulate and enhance private investment.

### Authorities’ statement and recent macroeconomic performance
- Kossi Assimaidou, Executive Director for Côte d’Ivoire (statement dated November 30, 2012) summarized:
  - HIPC completion point debt relief in mid-2012 was pivotal.
  - Strong reform momentum; all end-June 2012 performance criteria were met.
  - 2012 growth projected at 8.6 percent, stronger than the 8.1 percent initially programmed.
  - Inflation expected to remain well below 2 percent for the year.
  - Revenue outpaced early projections by 1.1 percent of GDP, owing to higher-than-expected corporate income tax and oil proceeds.
  - National Development Plan (NDP) 2012–15 financing estimated at about CFAF 11,076 billion (about $21 billion) over 4 years; roughly half to be provided by the government budget.
  - A Consultative Group donors’ conference scheduled for December 4–5, 2012 in Paris.
- Reforms and administrative actions reported:
  - Budget review bills for 2004–10 passed by Parliament.
  - Census of civil servants completed; Single Reference File available since October 2012.
  - Ethics and Conduct Charter adopted in September 2012.
  - Cocoa/coffee industry reform: Coffee and Cocoa Council enforcing minimum guaranteed price to producers at 60 percent of the c.i.f. price.
  - Strategy to restructure state-owned enterprises adopted in May 2012 aiming at divesting at least 25 percent of state assets in the sector.
  - Electricity sector actions: industrial tariffs raised in early 2012; efforts to make every consumer category pay its fair share.
  - Automatic pricing mechanism for petroleum products formally adopted; implementation to resume at end-March 2013.

### Medium-term policies and commitments
- Implementing the National Development Plan (NDP) 2012–15:
  - Overarching goal: turn Côte d’Ivoire into an emerging market economy by 2020 and reduce poverty.
  - Targets include increasing public investment to 9.7 percent of GDP by 2015 (from 3 percent average over 2006–10).
  - Private investment projected to rise from about 6 percent of GDP in 2010 to 13.7 percent by 2015.
  - Government intends to push real GDP growth rates towards double-digit figures starting in 2014.
- Fiscal policy stance:
  - Continuously improve revenue mobilization while restraining current expenditures to make room for programmed investments.
  - 2013 draft budget: tax revenue should amount to 17.4 percent of GDP.
  - Fiscal measures for 2013 include an action plan to optimize VAT yield, use of standardized invoices, improving real estate tax collection, and reinstating import duties and taxes on rice.
- Restructuring public banks and financial sector:
  - Complete and implement the Financial Sector Development Strategy in 2013 (with World Bank TA).
  - Restructure public banks in 2013 using options of merger, liquidation, or privatization depending on audit results.
  - Microfinance sector recovery supported by restructuring plans and update of the National Microfinance Strategy.
- Stepping up lagging structural reforms:
  - Continue to address electricity subsector financial deficit, negotiate stakeholders, and pursue bold actions including building new dams.
  - Resume implementation of automatic pricing mechanism for petroleum products end-March 2013.
  - Discuss public service wage bill using completed census data as part of the social forum.
  - Enhance business climate: one-stop shop established; commercial court fully functional since October 2012; comprehensive plan to improve World Bank Doing Business Index areas.
- Ensuring post-HIPC debt sustainability:
  - Develop debt management strategy and homegrown debt sustainability analysis to be issued with the 2014 budget.
  - Strategy to favor concessional borrowing, minimize costs and risks, support domestic market development, and opt for medium-term maturities.
  - Reorganize debt management unit; National Committee of Public Debt created and functional.
  - Use public-private partnerships (PPPs) to boost investment while limiting fiscal risks; legal and institutional framework for PPPs to be in place before end-June 2013.
  - Priority projects eligible for PPPs identified consistent with the NDP.

*Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections; IMF Press Release No.12/466; statements and tables as provided in the source content.*

### Conclusion

### Conclusion

### Macroeconomic and structural outcomes
- The improvement in the socio-political situation, paired with the HIPC dividends, has helped free additional resources for Côte d’Ivoire to finance its development agenda.
- These favorable factors have provided a more benign footing for my authorities’ policymaking under the ECF-supported program, and they have achieved satisfactory results both in macroeconomic management and in implementing important structural reforms.

### Key challenges and development agenda
- Going forward, addressing the challenges of further improving security and creating a lasting peace should help back the smooth implementation of the authorities’ National Development Plan.
- The success of this plan is paramount to yield stronger and inclusive growth, create job especially for the youth and significantly reduce poverty.

### Authorities’ commitment and goal
- With the assistance of their partners, my Ivoirien authorities are committed to this task, aligned with their unwavering goal of turning Côte d’Ivoire into an emerging market economy by 2020.

*Source: Conclusion (cr12332).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/_cr12332.pdf_