## _cr1245

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---

### Executive summary — overall assessment and scope
- Lift Liberia (PRS-1, 2008) implementation period assessed: 2008-2011 (three fiscal years from July 2008 to December 2011).
- Implementation record:
  - About two-thirds of planned deliverables were done.
  - Many deliverables were preparatory: plans, capacity building, laws, institutional and physical system rebuilding, rehabilitation/repair of infrastructure.
- Net outcomes:
  - Positive developments: peace sustained; continued economic growth (especially urban); poverty declined; expanded coverage of health and education services by most measures; some physical infrastructure improvements; some governance aspects improved.
- Key lesson: progress to intermediate and final outcomes will require better cross-sector coordination and a results-focused design stage; aligning budget allocations and external funding with PRS programs before launch would likely have improved early success.

### Fully satisfactory, partly satisfactory, marginal, and unsatisfactory outcomes
- Fully satisfactory outcomes (2008-2011):
  - Macroeconomic stability with low inflation.
  - Essentially balanced budgets.
  - Major reduction of external debt.
  - Financial sector expansion in size and range of services; banks with stronger balance sheets.
- Partly satisfactory outcomes (interventions partly completed):
  - Health; Water and sanitation; Business and private sector; Civil service reform; Mining (several deliverables completed but outcomes delayed).
- Marginally positive outcomes (deliverables mostly complete but limited outcomes):
  - Transition to Liberian agencies handling security; Basic education; Roads; Environment; Labor protection.
- Unsatisfactory outcomes (need more attention or revised strategy):
  - Electric power; Prompt delivery of justice; Decentralization (limited devolution of decision-making authority).

### Lessons for PRS formulation and implementation
- Retain deliverable focus for accountability but explicitly link deliverables to desired outcomes from the start to improve cross-sector coordination.
- Address cross-pillar dependencies (for example, roads and electricity enabling agriculture and agro-industry).
- Secure alignment of donor funding and government budget allocations prior to program launch when possible.

### Introduction — PRS structure and monitoring
- PRS pillars and quasi-pillar:
  - Peace and security; Economic Revitalization; Governance and Rule of Law; Infrastructure and Basic Services (IBS); cross-cutting: capacity building and gender equality.
- PRS cost estimate (2008): US$1.6 billion (US$500 million from national budget; remainder from development partners).
- Donor-reported flows by pillar (US $ millions):
  - 2009-10 TOTAL = 355.72; 2010-11 TOTAL = 425.85
  - Peace and Security: 1.59 (2009-10) — 9.49 (2010-11)
  - Economic Revitalization: 55.37 — 65.72
  - Infrastructure and Basic services: 258.92 — 240.32
  - Governance and Rule of Law: 39.84 — 110.32
- MOPEA reorganized tracking after a first annual review showing 20 percent of deliverables completed; second annual review found over 80% of 90-day deliverables due had been done. MOPEA developed an internet-based tracking tool.

### Monitoring and perceptions
- SH Survey (September–October 2011): 1,458 respondents across nine of 15 counties (Urban 39%; Rural 61%).
- Perception measures used alongside household surveys (CWIQ 2007/2010), Afro-Barometer 2008, Vinck et al. 2011.

---

### Peace and Security — deliverables, completion, perceptions
- Deliverable evolution and completion:
  - Initially 23 deliverables; after 2009 review split into 94 deliverables by agency.
  - Overall completion: 67 percent completed; 33 percent ongoing.
- Completion rates by agency (percent complete — percent ongoing):
  - BIN — 67% — 23%
  - CORR — 78% — 22%
  - CUS — 44% — 56%
  - LNP — 73% — 27%
  - MOD — 54% — 46%
  - MOJ — 50% — 50%
  - NFS — 64% — 36%
  - NSA — 80% — 20%
  - SSS — 78% — 22%
  - Other — 66% — 24%
- Classification by topic — percent complete:
  - Training & curriculum — 63%
  - Personnel & deployment — 65%
  - Operational procedures and other — 78%
- Perception and crime indicators:
  - SH Survey: 64 percent said crime rate decreased; 27 percent said increased.
  - SH Survey: 27 percent completely agreed and 44 percent partly agreed with “Since 2008, security has improved remarkably.”
  - Police reported crime trends: rises in reported crimes until mid 2009 and through early 2011; caution noted that reported crime = true incidence × fraction reported.
  - Afro-Barometer 2008 police trust: 30 percent Not trust the police At All; 37 percent Just a Little; 16 percent Somewhat; 16 percent A Lot.
  - Vinck et al. early 2011: 34% said nobody provides security locally; 33% cited police protection; informal actors cited: community watch teams 26%; myself/family 15%; local defense groups 9%.
  - Corruption in police contacts (Vinck et al.): 56% reported paying something when interacting with police.

---

### Economic Revitalization — macro, sectors, deliverables
- GDP growth (selected years):
  - 2008 — 7.1 percent
  - 2009 — 4.6 percent
  - 2010 — 5.6 percent
  - 2011 (proj) — 7 percent (Table 4 lists 2011(proj) 6.9% for real GDP and 2011 171.7 for Mining and Quarrying sector growth)
- Poverty and perceptions:
  - CWIQ household survey: poverty 2007 = 51 percent; 2010 = 37 percent; extreme poverty 2007 = 9.7 percent; 2010 = 8.9 percent.
  - SH Survey: 54 percent thought economic conditions were good or very good; 19 percent thought bad or very bad.
- Real sector growth (selected series from Table 4):
  - Real GDP growth by year: 2003 -31%, 2004 2.6%, 2005 5.3%, 2006 7.8%, 2007 9.4%, 2008 7.1%, 2009 4.6%, 2010 5.6%, 2011(proj) 6.9%
  - Non-mining real GDP (IMF staff estimates): 2003 -31.3, 2004 2.6, 2005 5.3, 2006 7.8, 2007 9.4, 2008 6.3, 2009 4.6, 2010 5.3, 2011 4.6
- Economic Revitalization deliverables — completion rates by sector (Totals, Ongoing, Completed):
  - Growth and Macroeconomics — 17 total — 12% ongoing — 88% completed
  - Agriculture — 29 total — 48% ongoing — 52% completed
  - Banking And Financial Services — 12 total — 0% ongoing — 100% completed
  - Business And Other Services — 15 total — 47% ongoing — 53% completed
  - Fishing — 1 total — 0% ongoing — 100% completed
  - Forestry — 3 total — 0% ongoing — 100% completed
  - Environmental (and labor) protection — 22 total — 41% ongoing — 59% completed
  - Industry — 6 total — 17% ongoing — 83% completed
  - Mineral Resources and Mining — 13 total — 8% ongoing — 92% completed
  - Total for pillar — 118 deliverables — 31% ongoing — 69% completed
- Growth and macro deliverables and outcomes examples:
  - Completed: revise Revenue Code and Investment Code; overhaul Bureau of Customs and Excise; implement customs automation; enact new comprehensive PFM law; 2010 Budget Framework Paper established MTMF and set stage for MTEF; pilot IFMIS operationalized in July 2011 in MoF and CSA.
  - Incomplete: implement new Tax Administration System; move from general sales tax to VAT.
  - Macroeconomic outcomes: exchange rate moved from L$63/US$ in mid 2008 to L$73/US$ in mid 2011; consumer price inflation 7.3% in 2008, between 1.2% and 4.5% in the two subsequent years, rose to annual rate over 10 percent in August 2011; tax revenues over 20 percent of GDP; deficit eliminated or kept under 1% of GDP (after international transfers).

### Agriculture — deliverables, production, constraints
- Agriculture deliverables:
  - Completed: replanting support for smallholder tree crop farms; transfer of appropriate technology via research and extension (eight operational); provision of strategic farm inputs targeted to needy farmers.
  - Lagging: develop/implement records management and land registration systems; pilot land registration outside central Monrovia.
- Agricultural output growth (Table 6, percent change, selected series):
  - Rubber: 2004 82.7; 2005 24.6; 2006 -25.0; 2007 29.1; 2008 -27.2; 2009 -5.0; 2010 -4.5; 2011, proj 1.5
  - Cocoa: 2004 274.5; 2005 -47.7; 2006 5.0; 2007 5.0; 2008 25.5; 2009 15.0; 2010 187.6; 2011, proj 3.0
  - Coffee: 2004 1.0; 2005 2.0; 2006 2.0; 2007 2.0; 2008 2.0; 2009 2.0; 2010 306.2; 2011, proj 5.0
  - Rice: 2004 -10; 2005 15; 2006 10; 2007 30; 2008 12; 2009 4; 2010 4
  - Total market Agriculture production: 2004 7.5; 2005 6.0; 2006 4.4; 2007 8.9; 2008 6.0; 2009 6.4; 2010 3.8; 2011, proj 3.6
- Sector constraints and outcomes:
  - Deceleration in agriculture output growth in 2010 and 2011 despite positive growth overall.
  - Storage, transport and marketing constraints limited the impact of input provision; road and electricity shortcomings impeded market access and processing.
- Notable developments:
  - Firestone investments since 2004 total over US$104 million; company employs over 6500 Liberian workers; since 2008 Firestone provided over 2.2 million seedlings free to independent farmers and purchased over $158 million worth of rubber from them.

### Mining — deliverables and local linkages
- Completed: amendments and alignment of Minerals and Mining Law; MDAs entered for Western Cluster, Bong Mines, Kitomo, Goe Fantro, Amlib; Model MDA included in Revenue Code and approved by Cabinet and Legislature awaiting publication.
- PRS projection (2008): shipment of 2-4 million tons by 2010, with production reaching almost 12 percent of GDP.
- ArcelorMittal: new plant cost over $1.5 billion; first-phase capacity 1.0 million metric ton per annum with plans to increase to four million ton per year in 2012; exports started September 2011 but constrained by ore water content.
- Mining investments cited: Severstal plans up to $3.5 billion at Putu Range.
- Social Development Fund contributions: largest is US$3m per year from Arcelor-Mittal.
- SH Survey: 46 percent completely disagreed that their community is directly benefitting from concessions; 26 percent partly agreed; 8 percent fully agreed.

### Banking and financial services — outcomes
- All 12 scheduled deliverables completed.
- Microfinance and banking expansion:
  - Number of micro-finance lenders increased from three in 2006 to eight in 2010.
  - Number of microfinance borrowers grew from 300 to 50,000 (Central Bank of Liberia, 2010 Annual Report, p. 49).
- Banking indicators (Central Bank of Liberia):
  - Capital adequacy ratio at end-September 2010 = 27.4 percent (from 12.0 percent at end-December 2006).
  - Ratio of non-performing loans to total loans = 25.1 percent (from 42.0 percent).
  - Total assets rising to L$35,570 million (from L$9,211 million).
  - Deposits increasing to L$25,409 million (from L$6,408 million).

### Business, employment, and labour protection
- Business registration totals (TOTAL REGISTRATION):
  - 2006 = 5257; 2007 = 5337; 2008 = 7096; 2009 = 7445; 2010 = 8293; 2011* = 8754
  - *2011 estimated as two times registrations Jan–Jun.
- Job creation and employment:
  - Up to 93,000 new jobs in PRS period 2008-10 (many in palm oil sector and informal).
  - Total employment in 2010 = 1,091,000; unemployed = 42,000.
  - Only 19 percent of labor is in the formal sector (Labor Force Survey 2010).
  - Enrollment in social security administration rose from 60,000 in 2008 to 75,000 in 2010.
- NIC approved projects job totals (selected totals):
  - Mining TOTAL = 12,900; Oil Palm TOTAL = 80,000; TOTAL across sectors = 110,726 (2006–2010 aggregate in Table 8).

---

### Infrastructure and Basic Services (IBS) — overall performance and subsectors
- IBS deliverable completion: 187 deliverables tracked — Completed 57% — Ongoing 43%.
- Completion rates by sector (2008-11):
  - Communications 55%; Education 68%; Energy (electric) 60%; Health 66%; Transport & Storage 64%; Water & Sanitation 31%.
- Many completed deliverables were preparatory (assessments, studies) rather than final physical outputs.

#### Energy
- Target (not completed): “Increase electricity generation by 35 MW.”
- Electricity transmission/distribution: 3 of 4 outputs completed; benefits concentrated in Monrovia.
- Household access to main lighting sources (percent):
  - Main electrical grid nationwide: 2007 = 0.6; 2010 = 2.8
  - Main electrical grid Rural: 2007 = 0.4; 2010 = 0.8
  - Main electrical grid Urban: 2007 = 1.0; 2010 = 5.1
  - Main electrical grid Greater Monrovia: 2007 = 1.5; 2010 = 6.8
  - Generator Nationwide: 2007 = 1.7; 2010 = 4.8
  - Generator Rural: 2007 = 0.3; 2010 = 1.9
  - Generator Urban: 2007 = 4.7; 2010 = 8.1
  - Generator Greater Monrovia: 2007 = 5.9; 2010 = 11.2
- Refrigerator ownership: less than 3 percent nationwide; about 6 percent in Greater Monrovia.
- Generator ownership: about 11 percent nationwide; about 27 percent in Monrovia; 3.6 percent rural.
- SH Survey 2011: 25 percent of urban respondents said an electrical grid in their area most houses could access; 2 percent in rural areas.

#### Transport and Roads
- PRS road targets and reported completions (2008–2011): all listed road categories reported 100% completion of PRS output targets.
  - Primary Paved Roads: Target 100 miles — Completed 100 miles — 100%
  - Primary Laterite Roads: Target 1,187 miles — Completed 1,187 miles — 100%
  - Secondary Laterite Roads: Target 300 miles — Completed 300 miles — 100%
  - Urban Laterite Roads: Target 150 miles — Completed 150 miles — 100%
  - Urban Paved Roads: Target 69 miles — Completed 69 miles — 100%
  - Feeder Roads: Target 400 miles — Completed 400 miles — 100%
- Access indicators:
  - CWIQ 2010: about 45 percent of households have access to an all-season road within 5 Km; 57 percent have access to any road within 5 Km.
  - SH Survey: 60 percent said government did construction/repair of roads in their community; 38 percent said No.

#### Water and Sanitation
- Completion rate of water and sanitation deliverables: 31 percent; 4 of 7 completed deliverables were preparatory.
- Ministry of Health reported households with access to clean water: increased from 67 to 75 percent (2007 to 2009).
- CWIQ 2010:
  - Improved water source: 2007 = 52 percent; 2010 = 57 percent (all improvement in urban areas; rural at 49 percent).
  - Access to sanitary toilet facilities: rose from 39 percent to 50 percent.
- SH Survey 2011: 62 percent said Wells with hand pumps as government-developed safe drinking water since 2008; 7 percent Piped water; 19 percent None.

#### Education
- Education deliverables: 34 total — about two thirds completed.
- Key completed actions: teacher salary scale; payroll verification in all 15 counties; construction/rehabilitation/furnishing of schools (seven completed); major teacher training; new secondary curriculum aligned with WAEC.
- Coverage indicators (CWIQ 2007 vs 2010; percent):
  - Primary GRI Male: 2007 = 88% — 2010 = 89%
  - Primary GRI Female: 2007 = 84% — 2010 = 89%
  - Primary NRI Male: 2007 = 37% — 2010 = 32%
  - Primary NRI Female: 2007 = 37% — 2010 = 33%
  - Secondary GRI Male: 2007 = 57% — 2010 = 65%
  - Secondary GRI Female: 2007 = 44% — 2010 = 51%
  - Percent of children age 6-17 who never attended school: 2007 = 16% — 2010 = 23%
  - Youth literacy (16-24) Male: 2007 = 81% — 2010 = 83%; Female: 2007 = 65% — 2010 = 71%
- Perceptions (SH Survey): 68% said community benefitted from improved trained teachers; 52% benefitted from improved books/materials; 83% benefitted from improvements in school buildings.

#### Health
- Health deliverables: two thirds reported completed; many ongoing deliverables partially delivered (several ~80%).
- Example EMONC deliverable: “Establish 50 basic Emergency Obstetric Care Centers and strengthen comprehensive Emergency Obstetric Care services in 15 hospitals” — 60 percent delivered: 15 health centers and 30 clinics providing basic EMONC; 11 hospitals providing comprehensive EMONC; national EMONC assessment of 312 health facilities completed.
- Per capita health spending: about $20 per capita in 2007; about $28 in 2009.
- Immunization (DPT): fell to about 35 percent in 2004; rose to 60 percent in 2005-07; 65 percent in 2008-09.
- Functioning government facilities providing BPHS: 2008 = 36%; 2010 = 80%.
- Health outcome indicators:
  - Under-five prevalence of malaria declined from 66 to 25 percent since 2005.
  - Under-5 child mortality: about 140 per 1000 in 2005; 112 in 2009; 105 in 2010.
  - Infant mortality rate: 78 per 1000 live births in 2006; 73 in 2010.
  - Maternal mortality rate: 990 per 100,000 live births in 2006; 89 in 2010.
  - Share of births attended by health professionals: rose from 46 percent to 65 percent.
- Nutrition: acute malnutrition reduced to 5% in past five years; chronic malnutrition remains at 42%; anaemia in young children = 60%; pregnant women = 39%.

---

### Governance and Rule of Law — deliverable performance and justice
- Pillar deliverables: 52 total — 32 completed — 24 ongoing — Pillar percent complete 62% (MOPEA Tracking).
- Selected agency completion (Total — Completed — Ongoing — Percent Complete):
  - Ministry of Justice: 14 — 10 — 4 — 71%
  - Judiciary: 7 — 4 — 3 — 57%
  - Governance Commission: 5 — 4 — 1 — 80%
  - Civil Service Agency: 8 — 5 — 3 — 63%
  - Ministry of Internal Affairs: 5 — 1 — 4 — 20%
  - National Elections Commission: 1 — 0 — 1 — 0%
  - Human Rights Commission: 1 — 0 — 1 — 0%
- Justice deliverables and constraints:
  - Justice deliverables: 21 total — 63 percent completed.
  - Completed: county attorneys in all 15 counties; public defenders hired and deployed nationwide; magistrate sittings at Monrovia Central Prison; case management systems initiated; James A.A. Pierre Judicial Training Institute trainings and 61 magistrates graduated.
  - Constraints: case backlog in circuit courts estimated at 90 percent; only 4 percent of cases fully tried within a year; pre-trial detainees constitute 90 percent of prison inmates; record-keeping flaws and limited access to justice.
- Decentralization and civil service:
  - At least 80 percent of decentralization deliverables completed; outcome: deconcentration but little devolution of authority.
  - Civil service reduced from 45,000 in 2006 to 34,000 in 2010; CSRS completed; HRMIS linkage framework established; CPIA Quality of Public Administration rose from 2.0 to 2.5 (2008 to 2010).
- Anti-corruption and transparency:
  - Anti-Corruption Commission established by legislation and resourced.
  - Not completed: Freedom of Information Act; Whistle Blower Statute; broadcasting and public broadcasting legislation.
  - Transparency International CPI: 2007 = 2.1; 2010 = 3.3.
  - SH Survey on whether government addressed corruption: 33 percent Yes; 55 percent No.

---

### Cross-cutting — capacity building and gender equality
- Capacity building deliverables frequently implemented with above-average completion; evidence of effectiveness remains limited.
- Gender equality:
  - CPIA for gender equality rose from 2.0 to 2.5 (2008 to 2010).
  - Gender modules integrated in security sector training; more women in security agencies.
  - Education: female enrollment improvements outpaced males in many measures; net enrollment rates remain low.

---

### Aggregate and sector summaries (selected indicators)
- Pillar completion highlights:
  - Peace and Security: 67% deliverables completed.
  - Economic Revitalization: 69% completed.
  - Macroeconomic management: 88% deliverables completed within Growth and Macroeconomics.
  - Agriculture: 52% completed.
  - Mining: 92% completed.
  - Banking and financial sector: 100% completed.
  - Business and private sector: 53% completed.
  - Infrastructure & Basic Services overall: 57% completed.
  - Governance and Rule of Law pillar: 62% complete across agencies tracked.
- Poverty and macro:
  - Poverty (population under $1 per day) declined from 64% in 2007 to 56% in 2011 (summary section).
  - Share perceiving being poor declined from 61% households in 2007 to 46% in 2010.

### Lessons and policy implications for PRS-2 and post-conflict contexts
- Program design and monitoring:
  - Combine deliverable-focused accountability with explicit outcome targets and monitoring to enable annual outcome measurement and mid-term adjustments.
- Cross-sector coordination:
  - Explicitly address dependencies (examples provided: roads, electricity, land rights).
- Financing and sequencing:
  - Align donor funding modalities with PRS program sequencing; increase aid reporting to Ministry of Finance and GOL-executed funding and budget support where feasible.
- Broader post-conflict lessons:
  - Use international security assistance as needed to restrain domestic violence during institution-building.
  - Prioritize preventive health measures to avoid disease outbreaks that can derail recovery.
  - Rebuild transport and communications links to restore markets and public services.

---

### Appendix A — World Bank CPIA scores (2008–2010)
- Category scores (selected):
  - 1 Macroeconomic management: 3.0 (2008), 3.5 (2009), 3.5 (2010)
  - 2 Fiscal policy: 3.0, 3.5, 3.5
  - 3 Debt policy: 2.0, 2.5, 3.0
  - 7 Gender equality: 2.0, 2.5, 2.5
  - 9 Building human resources: 2.0, 2.5, 2.5
  - 12 Property rights & rule-based governance: 2.5, 2.5, 2.5
  - 14 Efficiency of revenue mobilization: 3.0, 3.5, 3.5
  - 16 Transparency, accountability & corruption in public sector: 3.0, 3.0, 3.0
- Observed improvements 2008–2010: debt policy, equity of public resource use, efficiency of revenue mobilization; several other categories remained stable.

### Appendix B — Stakeholder Survey design and coverage
- Survey by Making Enterprises, Inc., September–October 2011.
- Total respondents = 1,458 across nine counties (Urban 39%; Rural 61%; male and female equal representation).
- County sample distribution (Population — Sample):
  - Montserrado: 1,118,241 — 559
  - Bomi: 84,119 — 42
  - Grand Cape Mount: 127,076 — 64
  - Gbarpolu: 83,388 — 42
  - Margibi: 209,923 — 105
  - Grand Bassa: 221,693 — 111
  - Lofa: 276,863 — 138
  - Bong: 33,481 — 167
  - Nimba: 462,026 — 231
  - TOTAL: Population 3,476,608 — Sample 1,458

*Source: _cr1245 (Lift Liberia, PRS-1) — Executive Summary, Introduction, sector assessments, Appendix A and Appendix B, as presented in the supplied content.*

### Executive Summary ......................................................................................................

### Executive Summary

### Overall assessment and scope
- Lift Liberia, the first poverty reduction strategy (PRS-1, 2008), delivered a lot of outputs in the period 2008-2011.
- About two-thirds of what was planned was done.
- Much of what was needed and what was done were preparatory measures — developing detailed plans, building capacity, passing laws, building or rebuilding parts of institutional and physical systems, and rehabilitating or repairing infrastructure.
- Although outputs have not achieved all desired outcomes described or implied in the PRS document of 2008, there were undeniably positive developments: peace was sustained; economic growth continued, especially in the urban areas; poverty declined; some physical infrastructure improved; coverage of health and education services expanded by most measures; and some aspects of governance improved.

### Fully satisfactory outcomes (2008-2011)
- Macroeconomic stability with low inflation.
- Essentially balanced budgets.
- Major reduction of external debt.
- Financial sector expansion in size and range of services; banks have more sound balance sheets.

### Partly satisfactory outcomes (interventions partly completed)
- Health.
- Water and sanitation.
- Business and private sector.
- Civil service reform.
- Mining: several deliverables completed but outcomes delayed due to temporary technical problems, global financial crisis, and some political uncertainty around the 2011 elections; reforms need to continue and trajectory is headed in the right direction.

### Marginally positive outcomes (deliverables mostly complete but limited final outcomes)
- Transition to Liberian agencies handling security.
- Basic education.
- Roads.
- Environment.
- Labor protection.
- Example: Crime prevention — perceptions are mostly positive but statistical evidence is ambiguous; crime prevention agencies struggled with organizational challenges and perceived corruption.

### Unsatisfactory outcomes (need more attention or revised strategy)
- Electric power.
- Prompt delivery of justice.
- Decentralization: limited devolution of decision-making authority to locally elected officials; some deconcentration of functions from central agencies occurred, sometimes with a mandate to address local concerns.

### Lessons for PRS formulation and implementation
- The focus on deliverables was useful for accountability and for getting many things done.
- Outcomes were indicated in PRS-1 text but only implicitly linked to deliverables; more explicit consideration of desired outcomes from the start could have helped cross-sector coordination.
- For the next stage of progress in Liberia, showing substantial achievement in intermediate to final outcomes will require better cross-sector coordination; a results-focused approach in the design stage will be useful.
- Getting budget allocations and external funding for PRS programs aligned in advance of the launch would probably have increased success rates, especially in the first year.

*Source: Executive Summary (PRS-1, Lift Liberia), 2008–2011.*

### Introduction

### _cr1245 - Introduction

### Overview
- This report assesses the design, implementation, and effectiveness of Liberia’s first Poverty Reduction Strategy—Lift Liberia—over the years 2008-2011, specifically the three fiscal years from July 2008 to December 2011.
- It does not assess the whole first term of the elected government (2006-12) or the entire recovery process since 2003.
- PRS-1 growth strategy three prongs (PRS 2008, p. 21):
  - “rebuilding roads and other critical infrastructure;
  - reviving the traditional engines of growth in mining, minerals, forestry, and agriculture;
  - establishing a competitive environment to help diversify the economy over the medium term”

### Defining the PRS
- PRS objectives and activities organized into four pillars:
  - Peace and security: build capacity of military and crime prevention agencies to assume defense and security from UN forces.
  - Economic Revitalization: revive and stimulate private sector-led growth via economic regulation and support ministries/agencies.
  - Governance and Rule of Law: reform public sector agencies (other than those in other pillars) and ensure rule of law.
  - Infrastructure and Basic Services (IBS): government provision of physical infrastructure and social services (mainly health and education).
- Quasi-pillar for cross-cutting issues: capacity building and gender equality.
- Economic Revitalization and IBS pillars subdivided into sectors that contain major program content.
- PRS content:
  - Objectives often include numerical projections (intended outcomes).
  - Action matrices list actions (deliverables), responsible agencies, and timeframes (not always detailed).
  - County Development Agendas (CDAs) prepared for each of the 15 counties, drawing from the national PRS and adapting priorities to local circumstances.
- Monitoring and accountability:
  - After the first annual review (last quarter 2009) found only 20 percent of deliverables completed overall, MOPEA/LRDC reorganized PRS actions into detailed lists with single-agency responsibility and 90-day time windows.
  - Second annual review (last quarter 2010) found the majority (over 80%) of 90-day deliverables due had been done.
  - MOPEA developed an internet-based tracking tool; it is available publicly.

### Funding for the PRS
- PRS implementation cost estimate in 2008: US$1.6 billion.
  - Commitments: US$500 million from the national budget; remainder from development partners.
- Ministry of Finance Aid Management Unit has requested and collated donor flow information since FY 2009-10.
- Donor flows by PRS pillar (US $ millions)
  - Table 1: Reported Donor Flows by Pillar (US $ millions)
    - PILLAR — 2009-10 — 2010-11
    - Peace and Security — 1.59 — 9.49
    - Economic Revitalization — 55.37 — 65.72
    - Infrastructure and Basic services — 258.92 — 240.32
    - Governance and Rule of Law — 39.84 — 110.32
    - TOTAL — 355.72 — 425.85
  - Source: Ministry of Finance, Aid Management Unit.
- Donor modality and partner shares for 2009-10 (as reported by Ministry of Finance, Aid Management Unit):
  - Aggregated totals and shares (from Table 2):
    - TOTAL by modality and partner: 12.6 34.2 5.0 84.3 219.6 355.7 100%
    - Shares: 4% 10% 1% 24% 62% 100%
  - Noted caveats:
    - Data not complete; some donors (e.g., US) do not report all aid flows and have large shares of donor-executed projects.
    - Quarterly reports for 2010/11 indicate budget support and GOL-executed funding grew; US funding increased strongly in 2010/11 (including $25.5 million to Peace and Security Pillar) but remains non-GOL executed and underreported.
    - UNMIL troop costs and US military assistance (Dyncorp) are not reflected in these PRS donor flow data.
  - Government aim: more aid reported to the Ministry of Finance, more aid executed by GOL, and more budget support.
  - Ongoing efforts: GoL capacity building for public financial management supported by development partners.

### Measures of Achievements
- MOPEA tracks deliverable outputs via an internet tracking tool (http://www.liftliberia.gov.lr/dtt/reports/report.php), reporting actions completed, on-track, and off-track, with presentation text summarizing deliverables and progress.
- Quality of deliverables (construction, training, etc.) not extensively field-assessed in this report.
- Outcomes were not always defined ex ante in the PRS nor target values usually specified; the assessment uses available outcome measures and notes quality variability.
- Perceptions matter for sustaining programs:
  - Stakeholder survey (SH Survey) conducted in September-October 2011 asks respondents what changes they perceive since 2008.
  - Other perception sources: CWIQ surveys (2007 and 2010), Afro-Barometer (2008), Vinck et al. Survey on Attitudes about Security (2011).

### Achievements by Pillar and Sector — Peace and Security
- Pillar goal: “To create a secured and peaceful environment both domestically and in the sub-region that is conducive to sustainable, inclusive, and equitable growth and development.”
  - Key outcomes: (a) enhanced security of Liberia; (b) increased public confidence in security officers and institutions; (c) improved protection against crimes.
- Implementation context:
  - In initial post-2003 transition, UN forces handled most security; PRS Peace and Security pillar centered on preparing national security forces to take over.
  - Responsible institutions: about a dozen ministries and agencies, including Ministries of Defense, of Justice and of Gender Diversity; the Armed Forces of Liberia; the Liberia National Police; National Fire Service; Bureaus of Customs and Corrections and Rehabilitation.
  - Deliverable evolution: initially 23 deliverables; after 2009 review split into 94 deliverables by agency to increase accountability.
  - Overall completion: 67 percent completed and 33 percent ongoing.
- Peace and Security deliverables — completion rate by agency (Table 3)
  - Bureau of Immigration and Naturalization (BIN) — 67% complete — 23% ongoing
  - Bureau of Correction (CORR) — 78% complete — 22% ongoing
  - Bureau of Customs (CUS) — 44% complete — 56% ongoing
  - Liberia National Police (LNP) — 73% complete — 27% ongoing
  - Ministry of Defense (MOD) — 54% complete — 46% ongoing
  - Ministry of Justice (MOJ) — 50% complete — 50% ongoing
  - National Fire Service (NFS) — 64% complete — 36% ongoing
  - National Security Agency (NSA) — 80% complete — 20% ongoing
  - Special Security Services (SSS) — 78% complete — 22% ongoing
  - Other — 66% complete — 24% ongoing
  - Classification by topic — percent complete:
    - Training & curriculum — 63%
    - Personnel & deployment — 65%
    - Operational procedures and other — 78%
  - Source: MOPEA Deliverables Tracking System
- Perception and reported crime indicators:
  - SH Survey: “In the past 3 years, do you think that the crime rate has changed?”
    - 64 percent said it had decreased
    - 27 percent said Increased
    - Urban and rural response rates for Decreased were about the same
  - SH Survey: to the statement “Since 2008, security has improved remarkably”:
    - 27 percent completely agreed
    - 44 percent partly agreed
  - Police monthly reported crime statistics (available since November 2008):
    - Until mid 2009 reported crime rates increased; until last quarter 2010 most months had rates considerably above the rates of 12 months before.
    - From last quarter 2010 through early 2011, the rates were substantially above those of the year before (Liberia National Police, Policy and Research).
    - Caution: reported crime = true incidence × fraction reported; rising reports can reflect falling incidence with rising trust in police.
  - Perceptions of police trust:
    - Afro-Barometer 2008: 30 percent Not trust the police At All; 37 percent trusted the police Just a Little; 16 percent Somewhat; 16 percent A Lot.
    - Early 2011 (Vinck et al.): perceptions mixed and varied by county; 34% stated nobody provides security in their locality; 33% mentioned police protection; police most frequently cited formal security source; UNMIL/UN Police 4%; military 1%; informal actors: community watch teams 26%; myself/family 15%; local defense groups 9%.
    - Findings suggest limited progress toward citizens trusting Liberian police and implications for decentralization given importance of informal organizations.
  - Quality and corruption concerns:
    - Vinck et al.: among those with police contact, 56% reported having to pay something (29% to investigate case; 29% to file complaint).
    - Afro-Barometer 2008: 52% said most or all police were involved in corruption; 39% thought some police were corrupt.
  - Dispute outcomes (Vinck et al. 2011, p. 61):
    - Non-land disputes resolved: 83%
    - Farm land-grabbing cases resolved: 53%
    - Land disputes over boundaries resolved: 64%
    - Land disputes over inheritance resolved: 66%

### Achievements by Pillar and Sector — Economic Revitalization
- Pillar goal: “To firmly establish a stable and secured macroeconomic environment and to be on an irreversible path toward rapid, inclusive and sustainable growth and development.”
  - Growth expected in: mining, financial services, agriculture, forestry and private sector — contributing to increased public revenues, expenditures, and employment.
- Macroeconomic performance (selected indicators and projections):
  - GDP growth:
    - 2008 — 7.1 percent
    - 2009 — 4.6 percent
    - 2010 — 5.6 percent
    - 2011 (proj) — 7 percent
  - Observations:
    - GDP growth declined from 7.1 percent in 2008 to 4.6 percent in 2009 due to international economic crisis; rebounded to 5.6 percent in 2010; 7 percent projected in 2011.
    - Except for 2008, rates are sufficient to noticeably improve general economic conditions and help reduce poverty.
  - Perceptions and poverty indicators:
    - SH Survey: 54 percent of respondents thought economic conditions were good or very good; 19 percent thought they were bad or very bad; urban responses about 10 percent more favorable than rural.
    - CWIQ household survey: 2007 — 51 percent of households considered themselves living in poverty and 9.7 percent in extreme poverty; 2010 — 37 percent in poverty and 8.9 percent in extreme poverty (CWIQ 2011, p. 125).
- Real output growth rates (Table 4 — selected series; IMF 2011)
  - Real GDP growth by year: 2003 -31%, 2004 2.6%, 2005 5.3%, 2006 7.8%, 2007 9.4%, 2008 7.1%, 2009 4.6%, 2010 5.6%, 2011(proj) 6.9%
  - Agriculture & fishery: 2003 -38.5, 2004 7.5, 2005 6.0, 2006 4.4, 2007 8.9, 2008 6.0, 2009 6.4, 2010 3.8, 2011 3.6
  - Forestry: 2003 -36.8, 2004 -40.3, 2005 -6.2, 2006 2.9, 2007 1.0, 2008 29.4, 2009 1.4, 2010 11.6, 2011 1.9
  - Mining and Quarrying: 2003 56.7, 2004 49.5, 2005 -15.0, 2006 0.0, 2007 289.8, 2008 109.4, 2009 6.8, 2010 8.6, 2011 171.7
  - Manufacturing: 2003 -11.8, 2004 97.7, 2005 8.2, 2006 16.0, 2007 12.9, 2008 -16.7, 2009 -3.8, 2010 3.1, 2011 4.8
  - Services: 2003 -7.9, 2004 19.2, 2005 9.9, 2006 12.0, 2007 10.4, 2008 7.6, 2009 6.9, 2010 5.9, 2011 5.8
  - Real GDP, non-mining (IMF staff estimates): 2003 -31.3, 2004 2.6, 2005 5.3, 2006 7.8, 2007 9.4, 2008 6.3, 2009 4.6, 2010 5.3, 2011 4.6
- Economic Revitalization deliverables — completion rates by sector (Table 5)
  - Growth and Macroeconomics — Total deliverables 17 — Ongoing 12% — Completed 88%
  - Agriculture — Total deliverables 29 — Ongoing 48% — Completed 52%
  - Banking And Financial Services — Total deliverables 12 — Ongoing 0% — Completed 100%
  - Business And Other Services — Total deliverables 15 — Ongoing 47% — Completed 53%
  - Fishing — Total deliverables 1 — Ongoing 0% — Completed 100%
  - Forestry — Total deliverables 3 — Ongoing 0% — Completed 100%
  - Environmental (and labor) protection — Total deliverables 22 — Ongoing 41% — Completed 59%
  - Industry — Total deliverables 6 — Ongoing 17% — Completed 83%
  - Mineral Resources and Mining — Total deliverables 13 — Ongoing 8% — Completed 92%
  - Total for pillar — 118 deliverables — Ongoing 31% — Completed 69%
  - Source: MOPEA Deliverables Tracking System
- Growth and Macroeconomics — selected institutional deliverables and outcomes:
  - Completed institutional deliverables (examples):
    - Revise the Revenue Code and the Investment Code to improve investment climate, maximize revenue and facilitate trade.
    - Comprehensively overhaul the Bureau of Customs and Excise: structures, staffing, procedures, processes and practices.
    - Implement a customs automation system.
    - Amend the Revenue Code with respect to corporate and personal tax reduction and tax elimination.
    - Revise policies and procedures for mineral and forestry taxation.
    - Enact a new comprehensive PFM law to address weaknesses in budget preparation, execution, cash planning, GoL banking arrangements, debt and guarantee management.
    - 2010 Budget Framework Paper established basis for Medium Term Macro-fiscal Framework (MTMF) and set stage for Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF).
    - Pilot phase of IFMIS operationalized in MoF and CSA in July 2011 (further integration required).
  - Incomplete significant deliverables:
    - Implement a new Tax Administration System.
    - Move from a general sales tax to a value-added tax.
  - Macroeconomic outcomes attained:
    - Exchange rate moved from L$63/US$ in mid 2008 to L$73/US$ in mid 2011; depreciated sharply in early 2009 but steady since.
    - Consumer price inflation: 7.3% in 2008; between 1.2% and 4.5% in the two subsequent years; rose to annual rate over 10 percent in August 2011.
    - Tax revenues have been over 20 percent of GDP and increasing strongly in absolute terms and as a share of GDP.
    - Deficit eliminated or kept under 1% of GDP (after international transfers; IMF 2011, CPIA).
    - Country eliminated most of its external debt with successful completion of the HIPC program.

### Agriculture (introductory note)
- Agriculture employs a large share of the workforce; growth in the sector is crucial for poverty reduction.
- Almost a third of the deliverables in the Economic Revitalization pillar are for the agriculture sector.
- The report indicates there are two main outcome objectives for the sector (detailed sector assessment continues beyond this introduction).

*Source: _cr1245 - Introduction*

### 1. Increased sales and shipments of agricultural production to urban and export

### 1. Increased sales and shipments of agricultural production to urban and export markets.

### Agricultural deliverables and implementation status
- Most significant fully completed deliverables:
  - Support the replanting of smallholder tree crop farms by providing training on best practices (use of improved seed and stock varieties, etc.), improving technical services, and mandating out-grower schemes in agricultural concession agreements.
  - Transfer appropriate technology to farmer via research and extension. Eight have been furnished and made operational.
  - Provide strategic farm inputs, e.g., fertilizer and high yield varieties of seeds and stocks, at affordable prices, carefully targeting the most needy on a time-limited basis so as to mitigate disruptions to input markets.
- Major lagging deliverables (delayed by half or more):
  - Develop and implement records management system at the national and local level so that land records are available to verify claims and expedite land transactions.
  - Pilot a land registration system in an area outside central Monrovia that is primarily held under fee simple.
  - The shortcoming in land records and titling is identified as a serious constraint for improved production and equitable growth.

### Outcomes and production trends
- Agriculture recovery since 2003 has been slow and incomplete; individual product lines show sporadic spurts amid slow growth and declines.
- Deceleration of agriculture output growth in 2010 and 2011 is notable, though agriculture growth rate remains positive.
- Constraints in storage, transport and marketing limited the impact of input provision: farmers encountered difficulty selling produce and pulled back on production, highlighting the importance of road improvements and cross-pillar coordination.

### Table 6: Agricultural Output growth (percent change)
- Rubber: 2004 82.7; 2005 24.6; 2006 -25.0; 2007 29.1; 2008 -27.2; 2009 -5.0; 2010 -4.5; 2011, proj 1.5
- Cocoa: 2004 274.5; 2005 -47.7; 2006 5.0; 2007 5.0; 2008 25.5; 2009 15.0; 2010 187.6; 2011, proj 3.0
- Coffee: 2004 1.0; 2005 2.0; 2006 2.0; 2007 2.0; 2008 2.0; 2009 2.0; 2010 306.2; 2011, proj 5.0
- Rice: 2004 -10; 2005 15; 2006 10; 2007 30; 2008 12; 2009 4; 2010 4
- Palm oil: (no numeric entries provided in source)
- Total market Agriculture production: 2004 7.5; 2005 6.0; 2006 4.4; 2007 8.9; 2008 6.0; 2009 6.4; 2010 3.8; 2011, proj 3.6
- Source: estimates, IMF 2011.

### Notable sector-specific developments
- Firestone (rubber sector):
  - Replanted many acres since 2004; replanted trees are less than five years old and not yet producing.
  - Investment since 2004 totals over US$104 million.
  - Company employs over 6500 Liberian workers.
  - Since 2008, Firestone has provided over 2.2 million seedlings free to independent farmers and purchased over $158 million worth of rubber from them (Firestone website).
  - Firestone purchases from independent farms are generally lower quality and produced with less efficiency compared to plantation methods.
- No statistical production data available for subsistence farming and local-market produce; anecdotal evidence suggests post-war rapid growth followed by slowing during the PRS period.

### Household survey and food security indicators
- SH Survey responses:
  - 62 percent of rural respondents and 56 percent of urbanites completely disagreed with the statement “Government interventions since 2008 have increased agricultural production.”
  - 30 percent agreed partly or fully.
  - 42 percent of rural respondents (40 percent national) completely disagreed with “As a result of implementing the PRS since 2008, food security for rural and urban households has increased/improved.”
  - 40 percent agreed partly and 11 percent completely, indicating mixed results.
  - 56 percent of households had only one meal per day, and 34 percent had only two.
  - Footnote: One meal per day does not necessarily mean misery, since 46 percent of those reporting only one meal a day said that overall economic conditions were Fairly good or Very good.
- CWIQ survey:
  - Households experiencing difficulty satisfying food needs often or always declined from 30 percent in 2007 to 22 percent in 2010 nationally.
  - The “Sometimes” response declined from 54 to 45 percent.

### Processing, storage, electricity and market access constraints
- Processing of local food products for urban sale has been limited.
- Lack of storage and transport (coolers, cold storages) causes produce to rot; example from Nimba County: producers sell only fresh in-season goods and experience post-harvest losses.
- Lack of affordable electricity is a binding constraint; market prices would not bear a mark-up high enough to cover generator electricity costs.
- Corridor Study (2011) findings cited:
  - “Aspects of production, processing and marketing need to be addressed simultaneously. Improved roads mainly enable and facilitate the marketing component of a crop, less so than its production and processing. It is not only on-farm activities and ‘access’ concerns that need to be improved, but also the often peri-urban activities related to processing and marketing, for it is in or near trading centers that large warehouses will be built, and palm oil processing equipment is manufactured, for instance” (Corridor Study 2011, p.19).

### Mining — linkages to agriculture and local economies
- Iron ore has the largest potential near-term value for mineral production and fiscal revenue.
- Completed deliverables include:
  - Review and amend the new Minerals and Mining Law to be consistent with the National Mining Policy, Public Procurement and Concession Act, the new Forestry Law, the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), Kimberly Process, and the Revenue Code.
  - Enter into Mineral Development Agreements (MDAs) based on the Model MDA for Western Cluster, Bong Mines, Kitomo, Goe Fantro, and Amlib projects.
- Model MDA is in the Revenue Code, approved by the Cabinet and Legislature and waiting publication.
- PRS 2008 projection: shipment of 2-4 million tons by 2010, with production reaching almost 12 percent of GDP (p. 65).
- ArcelorMittal:
  - New mining plant built at the cost of over $1.5 billion, located near Buchanan.
  - Capacity to produce 1.0 million metric ton of iron ore per annum in the first phase, with plans to increase to four million ton of iron ore per year in 2012 (This Day Live website, 18.10.2011).
  - Exports started in September 2011, although not yet at a high level due to problems with water in the ore.
  - Mining concession operations are highly closed enclaves; Arcelor-Mittal workers are almost all ex-patriots living in self-contained compounds and meeting needs with imports.
- Severstal plans to spend up to $3.5 billion at the Putu Range in Liberia.
- Mining firms’ contributions to Social Development Funds:
  - Largest is US$3m per year from Arcelor-Mittal (distributed to funds in three counties).
  - Other firms (BHP Billiton and the National Oil Company) also make contributions.
- SH Survey on community benefits from concessions:
  - 46 percent completely disagreed with “Your community is directly benefitting from the concessions agreements signed and ratified by the government since 2008.”
  - 26 percent partly agreed and 8 percent fully agreed.

### Banking and financial services — completed deliverables and outcomes
- All 12 scheduled deliverables for the sector were completed. Important measures include:
  - Two commercial banks, ECOBANK and UBA, have been given approval to offer debit cards, Visa Cards, and ATM services.
  - President's office issued an official communication to the Central Bank of Liberia to enforce its mandate to regulate all banks and non-banks financial institutions (supporting the new Financial Institution act and the Enabling Act).
  - Acts establishing the commercial court and commercial court were passed by the national legislature in 2010.
  - Draft leasing regulations for banks and non-banks financial institutions completed and submitted for publication in the Official gazette.
- Credit and microfinance expansion:
  - Rapid growth in micro-credits: number of micro-finance lenders increased from three in 2006 to eight in 2010, including AccessBank Liberia Ltd.
  - Number of microfinance borrowers grew from 300 to 50,000 over the same period (Central Bank of Liberia, 2010 Annual Report, p. 49).
- Banking sector indicators (Central Bank of Liberia):
  - Capital adequacy ratio at end-September 2010 stood at 27.4 percent, from 12.0 percent at end-December, 2006.
  - Ratio of non-performing loans to total loans declined to 25.1 percent, from 42.0 percent.
  - Total assets rising to L$35,570 million, from L$9,211 million.
  - Deposits increasing to L$25,409 million, from L$6,408 million.
- Figure 1 referenced: Money Supply (M2) and Credit to the Private Sector (source: Central Bank of Liberia).

### Business and other services — reform progress and outcomes
- About half of intended deliverables were completed. Significant completed actions:
  - Revised Investment Code passed by the National Legislature with stakeholder input.
  - Streamlined business registration process developed and synchronized with One-Stop-Shop procedures of line ministries (MOCI, MOF, MOFA).
  - One-stop-shop for customs clearing completed and in use at the Freeport of Monrovia.
- Ongoing and not yet completed deliverables:
  - Reorient the function of the NIC from a regulatory role to investment facilitation and attraction; reorganize and train staff.
  - Draft and pass legislation to effect rationalization, dissolution, privatization, or other needed regulatory controls for each SOE/parastatal/agency. Finalize restructuring and implement plans for SOEs, parastatals and regulatory agencies that are not being dissolved or privatized.
- Business registration data (Ministry of Commerce and Industry):
  - Liberian Businesses (Old): 2006 3960; 2007 3510; 2008 3966; 2009 3564; 2010 4709; 2011* 3432
  - Liberian Businesses (New): 2006 734; 2007 1045; 2008 2198; 2009 2897; 2010 2330; 2011* 3806
  - Non–Liberian Businesses (Old): 2006 415; 2007 610; 2008 711; 2009 822; 2010 1007; 2011* 1126
  - Non–Liberian Businesses (New): 2006 148; 2007 172; 2008 221; 2009 162; 2010 247; 2011* 390
  - TOTAL REGISTRATION: 2006 5257; 2007 5337; 2008 7096; 2009 7445; 2010 8293; 2011* 8754
  - *2011 is estimated as two times the number of registrations January – June.
- Foreign direct investment:
  - Figure 2 referenced: Foreign direct investment in Liberia (US$ million) (source: MOPEA). The dip in 2009 resulted from the global downturn and a strong recovery in 2010.
- Public perception:
  - SH Survey: 49 percent answered Yes and 42 percent answered No to “Have government policies in the last 3 years enabled you or members of your community to set up and operate small business?”

### Employment and workplace protection
- Completed deliverables and initiatives:
  - National Bureau of Employment (merger of BES and LEAP) established and formally launched with a six-month work plan.
  - National Employment Policy (NEP) approved by Cabinet in November 2009.
  - Community based job creation ongoing; 217,120 short term jobs were created from 2006 to 2010, of which the Ministry of Labor provided 15 percent.
- Ongoing deliverables:
  - Provide skills training for MSMEs to promote the transition from the informal to the formal economy.
  - Conduct 30 workshops (2 in each county) on HIV and AIDS in the workplace.
- Job creation outcomes and labor market statistics:
  - Up to 93,000 new jobs in the PRS period 2008-10 (many in palm oil sector and informal).
  - Total employment in 2010: 1,091,000; unemployed: 42,000.
  - Only 19 percent of labor is in the formal sector (Labor Force Survey 2010).
  - Enrollment in the social security administration rose from 60,000 in 2008 to 75,000 in 2010—almost half of formal sector employment (NASSCORP 2010).
- Table 8: Job Creation by Sector—actual and projected for approved projects (source: National Investment Commission)
  - Mining: 2006 3,000; 2007 200; 2008 3,000; 2009 6,700; TOTAL 12,900
  - Agriculture: 2006 220; 2007 3,000; TOTAL 3,220
  - Hotels: 2006 300; 2007 160; 2008 100; 2009 —; 2010 400; TOTAL 960
  - Industries: 2006 700; 2007 70; 2008 —; 2009 300; 2010 200; TOTAL 1,270
  - Oil Palm: 2006 —; 2007 10,000; 2008 —; 2009 70,000; TOTAL 80,000
  - Forestry: 2006 —; 2007 —; 2008 —; 2009 500; 2010 2,000; TOTAL 2,500
  - Petroleum: 2006 —; 2007 —; 2008 —; 2009 1,200; TOTAL 1,200
  - Finance: 2006 10; 2007 100; 2008 —; 2009 200; 2010 100; TOTAL 410
  - NIC Invest. Incentives Contracts: 2006 734; 2007 2,033; 2008 2,287; 2009 1,570; 2010 1,392; TOTAL 8,016
  - Infrastructure: 2006 —; 2007 —; 2008 —; 2009 250; TOTAL 250
  - TOTAL: 2006 4,034; 2007 13,123; 2008 2,757; 2009 77,170; 2010 13,642; TOTAL 110,726
- Labor productivity and youth employment observation:
  - Expert view cited: “The skills issue is not the real problem. The problem is about productivity....   Africa needs to create an environment that promotes the productive use of the skills available. We have to stop looking at the big corporations as the only private sector―the small guys working on the streets are also private sector.”

### Land, environment and forestry
- Completed deliverables:
  - Community Rights Law passed in October 2010; subsequent empowering of local communities is ongoing.
  - Policies and regulations on bush-meat, wood energy and other non-wood forest products have been developed and currently are being implemented.
- Incomplete and ongoing deliverables:
  - Develop a new Wildlife Management Law and raise awareness on the hunting ban on protected species and other unsound practices.
  - Conduct social and biological surveys of proposed protected areas and allocate up to 950,000 hectares to the National Protected Area Network with at least 100,000 allocated per year as consistent with the suitability study.
  - Manage existing protected areas (Nimba Nature Reserve and Sapo National Park) totaling 193,500 hectares, in accordance with the National Forest Reform Law and FDA regulations.
- Outcome indicators:
  - World Bank CPIA rating for environmental policy improved from 2.0 to 2.5 out of 5 from 2008 to 2010, indicating continued shortcomings.

### Infrastructure and basic services (brief)
- Pillar goal: rehabilitate infrastructure and rebuild systems to deliver basic services to create conditions and linkages for broad-based growth and poverty reduction.
- Hypothesis tested: Infrastructure and Basic Services interventions have contributed significantly to rehabilitation of basic infrastructure (roads, bridges, ports, power, public buildings, etc.) and strengthened systems and capacities to improve access to basic services (health, education, water and sanitation), thereby contributing to inclusive growth and poverty reduction.
- Available evidence verifies the hypothesis for some areas (health, sanitation, ports, public ...). 

*Source: _cr1245 - 1. Increased sales and shipments of agricultural production to urban and export markets (PDF), estimates and survey results as presented in the supplied content.*

### Appendix A summarizes the derivation and use of the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional

### _cr1245 - Appendix A summarizes the derivation and use of the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional

### Infrastructure and Basic Services (IBS) — implementation and sectoral variation
- Overall completion rate of deliverables in Infrastructure and Basic Services (IBS): 57 percent.  
- Completion rates by sector (2008-11): Communications 55%; Education 68%; Energy (electric) 60%; Health 66%; Transport & Storage 64%; Water & Sanitation 31%.  
- Total # of IBS deliverables tracked: 187 (Completed 57%, Ongoing 43%).  
- Many completed deliveries were preparatory (assessments, studies) rather than physical outputs.

### Energy — generation, access, and outcomes
- Main targeted action not completed: “Increase electricity generation by 35 MW.”  
- Electricity transmission and distribution: 3 of 4 outputs completed, with benefits concentrated in Monrovia.  
- Household access to main sources for lighting (percent):
  - Main electrical grid nationwide: 2007 = 0.6; 2010 = 2.8.  
  - Main electrical grid Rural: 2007 = 0.4; 2010 = 0.8.  
  - Main electrical grid Urban: 2007 = 1.0; 2010 = 5.1.  
  - Main electrical grid Greater Monrovia: 2007 = 1.5; 2010 = 6.8.  
  - Generator Nationwide: 2007 = 1.7; 2010 = 4.8.  
  - Generator Rural: 2007 = 0.3; 2010 = 1.9.  
  - Generator Urban: 2007 = 4.7; 2010 = 8.1.  
  - Generator Greater Monrovia: 2007 = 5.9; 2010 = 11.2. (Source: CWIQ 2010, p. 123)  
- Refrigerator ownership: less than 3 percent nationwide; about 6 percent in Greater Monrovia.  
- Generators: about 11 percent of households nationwide; about 27 percent in Monrovia; 3.6 percent in rural areas.  
- SH Survey 2011: 25 percent of urban respondents said an electrical grid in their area most houses could access; 2 percent in rural areas.  
- Summary: progress from a very low base on access, but inadequate power for economic transformation toward middle-income status.

### Transport and Roads — targets, outputs, and access outcomes
- PRS road objectives included building/reconstructing 1,187 miles of primary roads and 300 miles of all-weather secondary roads, plus 1187 miles primary and 300 miles secondary targets reflected in deliverables.  
- Status of PRS road outputs (2008–2011): all listed road categories reported 100% completion of their PRS output targets:
  - Primary Paved Roads: Target 100 miles; Completed 100 miles; Percent completed 100%.  
  - Primary Laterite Roads: 1,187 miles targeted and completed; 100%.  
  - Secondary Laterite Roads: 300 miles targeted and completed; 100%.  
  - Urban Laterite Roads: 150 miles targeted and completed; 100%.  
  - Urban Paved Roads: 69 miles targeted and completed; 100%.  
  - Feeder Roads: 400 miles targeted and completed; 100%.  
- Survey indicators of outcomes:
  - CWIQ 2010: about 45 percent of households (nationwide, rural and urban) have access to an all-season road within 5 Km; 57 percent have access to any road within 5 Km. (CWIQ 2010, p. 88)  
  - SH Survey: 38 percent answered No to “Has the government done any construction or repair of roads in your community?” while 60 percent answered Yes — with wide geographic variation.

### Water and Sanitation — deliverables and access trends
- Completion rate of water and sanitation deliverables: 31 percent; 4 of 7 completed deliverables were preparatory.  
- Physical deliverables completed: 2 (rehabilitating water systems, building/upgrading latrines) as indicated in PRS deliverables.  
- Ministry of Health reported share of households with access to clean water: increased from 67 to 75 percent, 2007 to 2009 (MOHSW 2011, p. 6-7).  
- CWIQ 2010 findings:
  - Percent access to an improved water source: 2007 = 52 percent; 2010 = 57 percent — all improvement in urban areas; rural remained at 49 percent.  
  - Access to sanitary toilet facilities: rose from 39 percent to 50 percent nationwide (CWIQ 2010, p. 120-121).  
- SH Survey 2011: 19 percent said None for government-developed safe drinking water since 2008; 62 percent said Wells with hand pumps; 7 percent Piped water; 10 percent Open wells; 2 percent Natural spring water.  
- SH Survey 2011 on sanitation: 47 percent said sanitation improved in past three years; 50 percent said No. Urban sanitation improvements about 8 percentage points more frequent than rural.

### Education — deliverables, inputs, coverage, and quality perceptions
- Education deliverables: 34 total; two thirds completed. Key completed items:
  - Teacher salary scale established based on qualifications, experience, performance, position/responsibility, teaching subject, and place of teaching.  
  - Payroll verification process completed in all fifteen counties; in-house head count against GAC report completed.  
  - Seven deliverables on construction/rehabilitation/furnishing of schools completed.  
  - Major teacher training deliverable completed.  
  - New secondary school curriculum aligned with the West African Examination Council.  
- Ongoing deliverable example: commence annual pre-notified inspection of schools and publish reports every 2 years (MOPEA Deliverables Tracking System).  
- Education coverage indicators (CWIQ 2007 vs 2010):
  - Primary Gross enrollment rate (GRI) – Male: 2007 = 88%; 2010 = 89%.  
  - Primary GRI – Female: 2007 = 84%; 2010 = 89%.  
  - Primary Net enrollment rate (NRI) – Male: 2007 = 37%; 2010 = 32%.  
  - Primary NRI – Female: 2007 = 37%; 2010 = 33%.  
  - Secondary school GRI – Male: 2007 = 57%; 2010 = 65%.  
  - Secondary school GRI – Female: 2007 = 44%; 2010 = 51%.  
  - Secondary school Net RI – Male: 2007 = 16%; 2010 = 17%.  
  - Secondary school Net RI – Female: 2007 = 14%; 2010 = 18%.  
  - Highest grade attained (6 yrs. and older) — Vocational/Tech tertiary: 2007 = 2.7%; 2010 = 2.2%.  
  - University: 2007 = 12%; 2010 = 15%.  
  - Senior secondary: 2007 = 11%; 2010 = 11%.  
  - None: 2007 = 40%; 2010 = 40%.  
  - Percent of children age 6-17 who never attended school: 2007 = 16%; 2010 = 23%.  
  - Youth literacy (age 16-24) — Male: 2007 = 81%; 2010 = 83%.  
  - Youth literacy — Female: 2007 = 65%; 2010 = 71%. (Source: CWIQ 2010, pp. 109-117)  
- National School Census Reports (Total students, Pre-primary through Senior High School): 2008 = 1,265,513; 2009 = 1,406,659. Junior High School (Gross ER) 2008 = 40%; 2009 = 48%. Junior High School (Net ER) 2008 = 5%; 2009 = 7%. Senior High School (Gross ER) 2008 = 24%; 2009 = 30%. Senior High School (Net ER) 2008 = 6%; 2009 = 7%. (Source: National School Census Reports, 2008, 2010)  
- Outcomes: gross enrollment increased more for girls; primary net enrollment rates are less than half of gross rates and primary net rates declined from 2007 to 2010. Percentage of adults completing secondary school remained unchanged at 11%; those completing university rose from 12% to 15% (possible return of émigrés).  
- Perceptions (SH Survey): 68% said their community benefitted from improvement of trained teachers; 52% said community benefitted from improved supply of books/materials; 83% said community benefitted from improvements in school buildings.

### Health — deliverables, system capacity, and health outcomes
- Two thirds of planned health actions reported as completed; many ongoing deliverables were over half completed, several around 80% completed.  
- Example deliverable progress: “Establish 50 basic Emergency Obstetric Care Centers and strengthen comprehensive Emergency Obstetric Care services in 15 hospitals” — 60 percent delivered: 15 health centers and 30 clinics in 15 counties providing basic EMONC and 11 hospitals providing comprehensive EMONC; national EMONC need assessment completed in 312 health facilities.  
- Per capita health spending: about $20 per capita in 2007; about $28 in 2009.  
- Immunization (DPT) rates: fell to about 35 percent in 2004; rose to 60 percent in 2005-07; 65 percent in 2008-09 (WHO).  
- Functioning government facilities providing BPHS: 2010 = 80%; 2008 = 36% (MOHSW 2011, p. 8).  
- Health outcome indicators:
  - Under-five prevalence of malaria declined from 66 to 25 percent since 2005 (MOHSW 2011, p. 6-7).  
  - Under-5 child mortality: about 140 per 1000 in 2005; 112 in 2009; 105 in 2010 (WHO).  
  - Infant mortality rate: 78 per 1000 live births in 2006; 73 in 2010.  
  - Maternal mortality rate: 990 per 100,000 live births in 2006; 89 in 2010.  
  - Share of births attended by health professionals: rose from 46 percent to 65 percent.  
- Public perceptions (SH Survey): 21 percent completely agreed basic health care services increased for rural and urban households; 21 percent completely disagreed; 52 percent partially agreed. 72 percent thought water-borne diseases had declined since 2008; 24 percent thought they had increased. Households reporting Never or Seldom having difficulty meeting health-bills rose from 34 percent in 2007 to 45 percent in 2010 (CWIQ 2010, p. 131).  
- Nutrition: acute malnutrition reduced to 5% in past five years; chronic malnutrition remains at 42%. Anaemia in young children 60%; pregnant women 39%. Government aim: roll out Essential Nutrition Package in at least 75% of health facilities by 2015.

### Governance and Rule of Law — pillar performance and agency completion rates
- Pillar goal: build and operate effective institutions and systems to strengthen peace, democratic governance, accountability, and justice.  
- Pillar deliverables: total PRS deliverables by agency (selected examples):
  - Ministry of Justice: Total PRS deliverables 14; Completed 10; Ongoing 4; Percent Complete 71%.  
  - Judiciary: 7 total; 4 completed; 3 ongoing; 57% complete.  
  - Governance Commission: 5 total; 4 completed; 1 ongoing; 80% complete.  
  - Ministry of Gender and Development: 2 total; 2 completed; 0 ongoing; 100% complete.  
  - Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs: 2 total; 1 completed; 1 ongoing; 50% complete.  
  - General Services Agency: 5 total; 3 completed; 2 ongoing; 60% complete.  
  - Ministry of Internal Affairs: 5 total; 1 completed; 4 ongoing; 20% complete.  
  - Civil Service Agency: 8 total; 5 completed; 3 ongoing; 63% complete.  
  - Min. of Information, Culture and Tourism: 1 total; 1 completed; 0 ongoing; 100% complete.  
  - Ministry of Youth and Sports: 1 total; 1 completed; 0 ongoing; 100% complete.  
  - National Elections Commission: 1 total; 0 completed; 1 ongoing; 0% complete.  
  - Human Rights Commission: 1 total; 0 completed; 1 ongoing; 0% complete.  
  - Total Pillar percentage: 52 total deliverables; 32 completed; 24 ongoing; 62% complete. (Source: MOPEA Deliverables Tracking System)

### Justice — outputs, training, and remaining constraints
- Justice deliverables: 21 total; 63 percent completed. Completed actions include:
  - County Attorneys assigned in all 15 counties; public defenders hired and deployed nationwide.  
  - Magistrate sittings now held at the Monrovia Central Prison to reduce pre-trial detention.  
  - Development of national and county-level case management systems initiated.  
  - James A.A. Pierre Judicial Training Institute implemented over twenty trainings; 61 magistrates graduated from Professional Magistrate Training Program in June 2011 (Judiciary SWG 2011, p. 3).  
- Ongoing deliverables include: develop national framework for customary justice to conform to human rights standards; strengthen juvenile justice with diversion programs.  
- Perceptions and system constraints:
  - SH Survey on transparent justice improvement: 46 percent Yes; 46 percent No.  
  - Case backlog in circuit courts estimated at 90 percent; only 4 percent of cases fully tried within a year. Pre-trial detainees constitute 90 percent of prison inmates. Record-keeping flaws increase corruption risks. Access to justice limited; many circuit courts have low case flows; only one circuit court judge in most counties. (Judiciary SWG 2011, p. 4-5).  
- World Bank CPIA rating for property rights and rule-based governance: 2.5 out of 5, 2008-10 (See Appendix A).

### Decentralization, Civil Service, and Anti-Corruption
- Decentralization:
  - At least 80 percent of decentralization deliverables completed including: develop and endorse a National Decentralization Policy; develop and begin executing a strategic implementation plan; create capacity to harmonize national and local structures.  
  - Remaining key action: “Develop and implement action plan to increase the capacity of the National Elections Commission to manage sub-national elections.”  
  - Outcome to date: some deconcentration (county-level ministry branches), but little true decentralization of authority.  
- Civil Service:
  - Completed: comprehensive Civil Service Reform Strategy (CSRS); rationalization and restructuring of 9 ministries and the CSA — civil service reduced from 45,000 in 2006 to 34,000 in 2010.  
  - Framework established linking biometric ID system and 15 line ministries/agencies to HRMIS module of IFMIS.  
  - Ongoing: review mandates/functions of 18 ministries and CSA; develop and enact Code of Conduct for all public servants.  
  - CPIA Quality of Public Administration: rose from 2.0 in 2008 to 2.5 in 2010.  
- Anti-Corruption and Transparency:
  - Completed: finalize structure/mandate and establish by legislation the Anti-Corruption Commission with adequate resourcing.  
  - Not completed: develop and enact Freedom of Information Act and Whistle Blower Statute, Broadcasting regulations and National Public Broadcasting Service Act.  
  - Transparency International CPI (1-10 scale): 2007 = 2.1; 2010 = 3.3. (2005 score 2.2)  
  - CPIA for Transparency, accountability & corruption in the public sector: 3.0 for 2008 to 2010.  
  - SHG Survey on whether government has addressed corruption: 33 percent Yes; 55 percent No.

### Cross-cutting issues — capacity building and gender equality
- Capacity building deliverables were frequent and had above-average completion rates; these may provide foundations for future performance improvements, but evidence is insufficient to judge effectiveness to date.  
- Gender equality:
  - CPIA for gender equality rose from 2.0 to 2.5 from 2008 to 2010.  
  - Gender modules integrated in security sector training; more women in security agencies.  
  - Health: marked improvement in availability of care for pregnant women and reduction in maternal mortality.  
  - Education: female enrollment improved more than male in several categories, but net enrollment rates remain low.

### Summary of Pillar and Sector Findings (selected aggregate indicators)
- Peace and Security: 67% of deliverables completed; no major outbreaks of violence; mixed crime evidence and perceptions.  
- Economic Revitalization: 69% completed; GDP growth positive in all years; projected to recover to 7% in 2011; poverty declined from 64% in 2007 to 56% in 2011 (population with less than $1 per day). Perceptions of general economy improved; share perceiving being poor declined from 61% households in 2007 to 46% in 2010.  
- Macroeconomic stability and financial management: 88% deliverables completed; low inflation and fiscal deficits (after grants); improved financial management.  
- Agriculture: 52% completed; growth positive but slowing since 2007; food security improving.  
- Mining: 92% completed; some investment and output restarted; exports delayed pending political clarity.  
- Banking and financial sector: 100% completed; banking sector expanded and capital base strengthened.  
- Business and private sector: 53% completed; strong growth in firm registrations, employment, and FDI; mixed opinions on government role.  
- Environment & labor protection: 59% completed; CPIA indicates modest progress from a low base.  
- Infrastructure & Basic Services overall: 57% completed; mixed outcomes across subsectors (see sector entries above).  
- Governance and rule of law pillar: 41% completed overall (sectoral variation), with justice at 63%, decentralization 45%, civil service 65%, anti-corruption 50%.

### Lessons learned and policy implications for PRS-2 and for post-conflict contexts
- Program design and monitoring:
  - Keep attention to deliverables for accountability and short-term monitoring while maintaining outcome-based thinking to align deliverables with priority outcomes and to enable annual outcome monitoring and mid-term adjustments.  
  - Rethink decentralization strategy: build on deconcentration gains and consider sequencing toward decentralization given possible limited commitment from non-administration actors.  
- Cross-sector coordination:
  - Address cross-pillar dependencies explicitly in planning (results chain), because shortcomings in one sector produce bottlenecks elsewhere:
    - Roads shortfalls impeded agriculture and education.  
    - Electric generation shortfalls impeded agro-industry and small business development.  
    - Land rights and titling problems hindered agriculture and business development.  
- Financing and sequencing:
  - Donor funding arrangements aligned with PRS programs in advance would likely have improved early PRS-1 performance.  
- Lessons for other post-conflict countries:
  - Use international security assistance as needed to restrain domestic violence to allow institutions to develop.  
  - Assure basic preventive health-care measures to prevent disease outbreaks from derailing recovery.  
  - Rebuild elementary transport and communications linkages to restore markets and public services.

*Appendix A: summarizes the derivation and use of the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment and gives a complete list of CPIA ratings since they started for Liberia in 2008.*

### Appendix A:  World Bank Country Performance and Institutions

### Appendix A: World Bank Country Performance and Institutions Assessment (CPIA) Liberia

### CPIA scores 2008–2010
- Category 1 Macroeconomic management: 3.0 (2008), 3.5 (2009), 3.5 (2010)
- Category 2 Fiscal policy: 3.0 (2008), 3.5 (2009), 3.5 (2010)
- Category 3 Debt policy: 2.0 (2008), 2.5 (2009), 3.0 (2010)
- Category 4 Trade: 3.0 (2008), 3.0 (2009), 3.0 (2010)
- Category 5 Financial sector: 2.5 (2008), 2.5 (2009), 2.5 (2010)
- Category 6 Business regulatory environment: 3.0 (2008), 3.0 (2009), 3.0 (2010)
- Category 7 Gender equality: 2.0 (2008), 2.5 (2009), 2.5 (2010)
- Category 8 Equity of public resource use: 3.0 (2008), 3.0 (2009), 3.5 (2010)
- Category 9 Building human resources: 2.0 (2008), 2.5 (2009), 2.5 (2010)
  - Health and nutrition: 2.0 (2008), 2.5 (2009)
  - Education: 2.0 (2008), 2.5 (2009)
- Category 10 Social protection & labor: 2.0 (2008), 2.5 (2009), 2.5 (2010)
- Category 11 Policy & institutions for environmental sustainability: 2.0 (2008), 2.0 (2009), 2.5 (2010)
- Category 12 Property rights & rule-based governance: 2.5 (2008), 2.5 (2009), 2.5 (2010)
- Category 13 Quality of budgetary & financial mgt.: 2.5 (2008), 2.5 (2009), 2.5 (2010)
- Category 14 Efficiency of revenue mobilization: 3.0 (2008), 3.5 (2009), 3.5 (2010)
- Category 15 Quality of public administration: 2.0 (2008), 2.5 (2009), 2.5 (2010)
- Category 16 Transparency, accountability & corruption in public sector: 3.0 (2008), 3.0 (2009), 3.0 (2010)

### Observations from CPIA series
- Several areas show improvement between 2008 and 2010, notably:
  - Debt policy increased from 2.0 to 3.0.
  - Equity of public resource use increased from 3.0 to 3.5.
  - Efficiency of revenue mobilization increased from 3.0 to 3.5.
- Areas with stable scores across the period include:
  - Trade (3.0 each year).
  - Financial sector (2.5 each year).
  - Property rights & rule-based governance (2.5 each year).
  - Quality of budgetary & financial management (2.5 each year).
  - Transparency, accountability & corruption in public sector (3.0 each year).
- Human development subcomponents (Health and nutrition; Education) both moved from 2.0 in 2008 to 2.5 in 2009.

### Appendix B: Stakeholder Survey

### Survey design and coverage
- Survey undertaken by Making Enterprises, Inc., in September-October 2011.
- Total respondents interviewed: 1,458 persons.
- Nine of the 15 counties were covered.
- Respondents selected randomly in each county, with numbers per county varying with county size.
- Urban respondents: 39 percent.
- Rural respondents: 61 percent.
- Male and female had equal representation.
- Survey included 57 questions focused mainly on perceptions of change during the PRS-1 period (2008-11) on the objectives of the PRS.

### County population and sample distribution
- Montserrado: Population 1,118,241; Sample 559
- Bomi: Population 84,119; Sample 42
- Grand Cape Mount: Population 127,076; Sample 64
- Gbarpolu: Population 83,388; Sample 42
- Margibi: Population 209,923; Sample 105
- Grand Bassa: Population 221,693; Sample 111
- Lofa: Population 276,863; Sample 138
- Bong: Population 33,481; Sample 167
- Nimba: Population 462,026; Sample 231
- TOTAL: Population 3,476,608; Sample 1,458

*Appendix A and Appendix B, as provided in the source PDF.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/_cr1245.pdf_