## _cr1261 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [_cr1261](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/_cr1261.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/_cr1261.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/_cr1261.pdf.json) --- ### Preface — progress, causes, and national commitment - Measured poverty increased from 49.2 percent in 2002 to 58 percent in 2010. - Principal cause identified: poor governance. - Service and infrastructure deficits highlighted: lack of ready access to education and health services; inability to properly feed households; lack of rural roads and highways; need for electricity for lighting. - Policy stance: poverty is "not something over which we have no control." Commitment that "beginning today, our financial resources and those of our development partners will be used rationally and more transparently." - National ownership appeal: PRSP extension presented as "the sole framework for all of our partners’ interventions" and to be supported by all Guineans. - Signed: /s/ Mohamed Saïd Fofana — Prime Minister, Head of Government ### Macro outcomes and social indicators (selected exact figures) - GDP growth average over PRSP period: 2.1 percent vs target 5.3 percent. - Average year-on-year inflation: 13.7 percent vs target 3 percent. - Budget deficit: 5.7 percent vs target 1.5 percent. - Underweight children under age five: 25.8 percent in 2005 → 26.1 percent in 2008. - Measles vaccination (children under 1): 85.3 percent in 2007 → 65.4 percent in 2008. - Number of health centers: 399 in 2007 and 410 in 2009. - Gross national school enrollment ratio: 79 percent (2007–2008) → 77 percent (2008–2009); girls: 71 percent → 70 percent; objective 83 percent. - National access to electricity: 18.1 percent (urban 68.9 percent; rural 2 percent). - Access to safe drinking water: 73.8 percent in 2007 (increase of 11.6 percentage points in five years); expected 81.0 percent in 2010. - Incidence of poverty: 49.2 percent (2002) → 58 percent (2010). - Military expenditures: 10.2 percent of GDP (2010) and 11 percent (2011). - Grain and petroleum prices increased 132 percent and 81 percent respectively; mining receipts declined at rate of 3 percent during 2009. ### Poverty assessment: data, trends, and projections - Data sources: EIBC 1994, EIBEP 2002, ELEP 2007. - Population 2007 estimate: 9.68 million; population growth rate: 3.1 percent per year. - Poverty incidence and indicators (selected exact figures): - 1994 total incidence: 62.6 percent; depth 28.5 percent; severity 16.1 percent. - 2002 total incidence: 49.2 percent; depth 17.2 percent; severity 8.1 percent. - 2007 total incidence: 53.0 percent; urban 30.5 percent; rural 63.0 percent. - Table 3 excerpt (Incidence | Depth | Severity — total 1994/2002/2007): - Incidence: 62.6 | 49.1 | 53.0 - Depth: 28.5 | 17.2 | 17.6 - Severity: 16.1 | 8.1 | 8.2 - Simulation using poverty-growth elasticity (-0.12) projects poverty rate: 58 percent in 2010; depth to 20.1 percent in 2010; severity to 10.2 percent in 2010. - Drivers of earlier decline (1994–2002): per capita income growth ~2 percent per annum; inequality measures improved (Gini 0.480 → 0.415 → 0.326 for 1994/2002/2007). ### Household perceptions and consumption patterns - Survey of households (ELEP 2007) — national satisfaction change (by quintile, exact values reproduced): - Improved — Poorest 9.17 | Q2 10.31 | Q3 8.7 | Q4 10.78 | Richest 15.15 | Total 10.82 - Maintained — Poorest 29.9 | Q2 35.11 | Q3 37.45 | Q4 41.63 | Richest 43.09 | Total 37.43 - Declined — Poorest 60.34 | Q2 53.62 | Q3 53.33 | Q4 46.42 | Richest 40.73 | Total 50.89 - Aggregate perceptions: 39.4 percent no change; 10.8 percent improvement; 50.9 percent deterioration. - Consumption composition (2007 vs 2002): - Food consumption: 69.2 percent (2007) vs 53 percent (2002). - Shoes and clothing: 4.1 percent (2007) vs 9.5 percent (2002). - Transport: 5 percent (2007). - Health expenditures: 3.8 percent (2007). ### Subjective poverty survey (Box 1, participatory results — exact figures) - Survey sample: 658 persons, 229 workshop participants. - Perceptions of poverty causes: - 44 percent: inadequate nutrition. - 14 percent: lack of income. - 13 percent: lack of employment. - 7 percent: lack of health care. - 6 percent: lack of support. - 3 percent: lack of education. - 0 percent: lack of power. - Household incidence and income stability: - 70 percent said their household was poor. - 85 percent said households lacked stable income. - 51 percent considered household income low for past three years. - Nutrition: - 75 percent consume fewer than three meals per day. - 52 percent lack sufficient quantity/quality of food. - 9 percent reported household well fed → implied 91 percent with nutritional problems. - Community priorities (percent): - Drinking water supply 21 percent; fight against food insecurity 19 percent; promotion of productive activities 12 percent; jobs for youths 10 percent; school construction 7 percent; health care facilities 6 percent; children’s education 6 percent; road construction 5 percent. ### Key diagnostics: governance, instability, and macro stressors - Political context: return to constitutional order after November 7, 2010 election; prior December 23, 2008 coup had suspended Constitution and dissolved National Assembly. - Domestic constraints cited: political and institutional instability; poor economic governance (violations of public procurement code; proliferation of special accounts); heavy military spending. - External constraints: lack of external financial assistance; international crisis increasing petroleum and food prices. - External debt and debt service (exact figures): - End-2010 stock of external debt: US$3 billion. - Average debt service: approximately US$175 million. - Debt represents 67 percent of GDP. - Ratio of debt service to tax revenue in 2010: 31.95 percent. - Foreign reserves covered only two months of imports (end-2010 months: 1.9). ### Strategic objectives and macro projections (exact targets) - Growth path: - Real GDP growth: 1.9 (2010), 4.0 (2011), 5.5 (2012), 5.8 (2013). - Per capita GDP growth: -1.3 (2010), 0.7 (2011), 2.2 (2012), 2.5 (2013). - Inflation: - CPI (year on year): 20.8 (2010), 17.1 (2011), 5.3 (2012), 4.8 (2013). - Reserves: - Gross foreign assets (months imports): 1.90 (2010), 2.5 (2011), 2.9 (2012), 3.0 (2013). - Fiscal and revenue targets: - Current revenue as % GDP: 16.4 (2010), 18.0 (2011), 19.3 (2012), 20.2 (2013). - Balance excl. grants (commitment basis) as % GDP: -11.7 (2010), -5.1 (2011), -2.6 (2012), -1.1 (2013). - Debt indicators: - External public debt service (US$ millions): 174.7 (2010), 213.4 (2011), 224.1 (2012), 235.3 (2013). - Outstanding debt (US$ millions): 3,020.6 (2010), 2,919.8 (2011), 2,794.3 (2012), 2,668.7 (2013). - Outstanding debt as % of GDP: 67.0 (2010), 64.8 (2011), 57.0 (2012), 50.2 (2013). ### Fiscal consolidation, monetary, and public finance reforms (selected measures and exact figures) - Corrective measures to reduce budget balance from about -11.7 percent of GDP (2010) to -5.1 percent (2011) and -2.6 percent (2012); corrective measures represent "4.1 percent of GDP". - Revenue measures: increase revenue by about "GNF 1,000 billion, or 3 percent of GDP"; increase receipts by "GNF 50 billion". - Monetary measures (BCRG): - raise commercial bank reserve requirements from "9.5 percent to 17.5 percent"; - limit use of Treasury bills to finance budget deficit to maximum "5 percent of average tax revenue for the previous three years" and term no more than "92 days". - Public finance urgent actions (Box 4): adopt framework law on government finance; prepare reliable accounting trial balances; audit public contracts (trigger for HIPC completion point); implement Single Treasury Account; update payroll and civil service files; clear Treasury liability to the central bank and domestic arrears. ### HIPC completion point triggers and monitoring status - Ten key indicators identified; six achieved at PRSP preparation time; four not achieved and under monitoring: - Achieved triggers included: improving poverty database; implementing regulatory framework for microfinance institutions; publishing annual report of ANBGLC; improving primary school gross enrollment ratio; recruiting 1,500 teachers per year; expanding DPT3 vaccination coverage. - Not achieved triggers included: satisfactory implementation of the PRSP; audit of large public contracts; increasing rate of prenatal consultations; PRGF completion (not finalized due to December 2008 coup). - Revised numeric trigger targets (examples): - Prenatal consultations: 88.2 percent (2007) → 90 percent (2011) → 92 percent (2012). - Measles coverage: 65.4 percent (2008) → 80 percent (2011) → 82 percent (2012). - Gross enrollment ratio: 77 percent (2009) → 90 percent (2011) → 92 percent (2012). - Conduct and publish quarterly audits on public procurement contracts > GF 100 million. ### Governance, justice, and security sector reforms (selected objectives and measures) - Reduce military spending (currently 10 percent of GDP and ~37 percent of central government budget) to reallocate resources to priority sectors. - Defense reform measures include: five-year reform plan; restoration of quarters and construction of barracks; professionalization and multiethnic recruitment; civic education in training; reintegration of discharged staff; participation in UN peacekeeping; strengthening community/local police. - Judiciary strengthening: - Increase budget for justice (currently ~1 percent of national budget). - Increase judges (current ratio: one judge per 38,000 inhabitants vs accepted one per 10,000; PRSP2 target one per 28,925). - Implement continuing education programs for judiciary personnel; rebuild central courthouse. - Anti-corruption measures: - Strengthen ANBGLC via anticorruption law; audit strategic public contracts; publish audit findings; continue decentralized governance and anticorruption offices. ### Sectoral priorities and programs — agriculture, food security, fisheries, livestock (selected targets and costs) - Agriculture sector growth targets: 4.1 percent (2011) and 5.7 percent (2012); GDP share stable at 14.2 percent. - PNIASA cost and financing (USD millions, select lines): - Sustainable development of rice cultivation: 282 (2011/13) ; 492 (2014/15) ; Total 774 ; Mobilisé 319 ; Recherché 455. - Food security through diversification: 156 ; 315 ; Total 471 ; Mobilisé 15 ; Recherché 457. - Promoting agricultural exports and agribusiness: 72 ; 656 ; Total 728 ; Mobilisé 262 ; Recherché 466. - Institutional strengthening and coordination: 63 ; 55 ; Total 118 ; Mobilisé 8 ; Recherché 110. - Livestock added-value growth targets: close to 3.9 percent in 2011; 5.6 percent in 2012 (vs 5.5 percent in 2010). - Fisheries targets: contribution to GDP 4.5 percent (2011) and 4.8 percent (2012). - PNIASA total mobilization needs shown by component and financing (details in source). ### Mining, private-sector projects, and job creation (exact projects and figures) - Mining sector GDP shares: 15.8 percent (2008); 14.7 percent (2009); 14.5 percent (2010); 14.2 percent (2011); expected 14.5 percent (2012). - Expected mining growth: 1.8 percent (2011); 4.6 percent (2012). - Principal private-sector mining projects (selected projects and costs): - Global Alumina (BHP-Billiton, Dubal, Mudabala): production 10 million t bauxite and 4 million t alumina; cost US$4.5 billion. - Dian-Dian (Rusal): 13.4 million t bauxite and 2.8 million t alumina; cost US$4 billion. - Kamsar alumina plant (Alcoa, Rio Tinto/Alcan): initial 1.5 million t alumina; cost US$1 billion. - Direct jobs (construction / operation, selected): - Kamsar: Construction 4,000–5,000; Operation 1,000–1,200. - Sangaredi: Construction 7,000–10,000; Operation 1,200–1,500. - SIMFER Rio-Tinto: Construction 10,000–15,000; Operation 7,500. - TransGuinéen railroad: Construction 25,000; Operation 2,000–3,000. ### Infrastructure, energy, water, transport, and ICT (projects and costs, exact figures) - Energy sector growth targets: 1.7 percent (2010); 6.2 percent (2011); 7.4 percent (2012). - Energy & water project totals (GNF millions, select subtotals): - Energy subtotal: 215,488 (2010); 157,554 (2011); 4,637 (2012); Total 377,679. - Water supply subtotal: 19,944 (2010); 22,721 (2011); 6,241 (2012); Total 48,906. - GRAND TOTAL Energy + Water Supply: 235,432 (2010); 180,275 (2011); 10,878 (2012); Total 426,585. - Telecommunications: - Mobile telephony access rose from 2 percent in 2005 to over 40 percent in 2010. - Total cost of National ICT Strategy estimated at US$445 million. - Transport sector selected road project costs (GNF millions, partial list): - Labé – Tougué – Dinguiraye - Siguiri Road — 6,240 — ISDB / BADEA. - Kankan Primary Roads, 20 km — 89,555 — BND. - Boké-Quebo Road Works — 192,000 — AfDB. - Study and Construction of Kankan - N'zérékoré – Yomou – Liberia Border Road — 278,384 — BADEA. - Aggregate figures reported in source. ### Social services: education, health, water, housing (targets and financing) - Education targets (exact numeric): - Increase education budget in BND from 11.3 percent (2009) to 25 percent (2012). - Increase access to first year primary from 76.05 percent (2010) to 80 percent (2011) and 100 percent by 2015. - Increase adult literacy rate from 35 percent (2010) to 50 percent (including 40 percent for women) by 2012. - Health MDG intervention cost (2005–2015): Total US$1,048.5 million; Annual per capita cost US$7.99. - Component totals (US$ millions): Health system 333.9; Infant/child health 258.2; Maternal health 179.9; Malaria treatment 178.7; HIV/AIDS 40.3; Total 1,048.5. - 2011 health objectives (exact): - pentavalent vaccination coverage 90 percent (85 percent in 2009); - prenatal care (PNC) rate 90 percent (88.2 percent in 2007); - proportion of properly staffed health facilities 60 percent; - tracer medication availability 80 percent in basic health facilities in 2011. - Water and sanitation targets: - 2010 target potable water access: 90.0 percent nationally; 92.8 percent urban; 77.9 percent rural (not achieved). - PNAEPA objective: increase service availability rate from 42.25 percent to 71.12 percent by 2015. - Access to safe drinking water increased by "11.6 percentage points between 2002 and 2007, or roughly 2.4 percent per year"; rate in 2007: rural 67.1 percent; urban > 91.2 percent; Conakry ~98 percent; expected 81.0 percent in 2010. - Housing and sanitation indicators (selected exact figures): - In 2007, 31.3 percent of households had adequate toilets vs 25.4 percent in 2002 (annual increase 1.2 percent). - Barely 1 percent of households had access to a sewage system; Conakry rate 2.2 percent in 2007. - With current trends, only 34.9 percent of households will have adequate toilets in 2010. - Over 80 percent of existing housing consists of improvised dwellings in unauthorized developments. - Social protection: - Social coverage estimated at less than 3 percent of the population; aim to increase coverage (monitoring target: increase coverage from 3 percent in 2010 to 50 percent in 2015; 5 percent target 2011; 7.5 percent target 2012). ### PRS implementation, monitoring, institutional roles, and risks - Implementation principles: participation, proximity, results, transparency, relevance, rapidity, subsidiarity, complementarity, synergy, job creation, sustainable development, social justice. - Institutional roles (selected): - PRSP coordination by PRS Permanent Secretariat (SP-SRP) with sector units and regional CTRSEs/CTPSEs. - National Statistical Institute (INS): implement SNDS Action Plan; organize RGPH; conduct EDS4; produce poverty monitoring surveys. - National Directorates: DNB monitor MTEF; DNP monitor priority action plans; National Directorate of Public Debt track ODA and HIPC resources. - Financing principles: state to steer mobilization of domestic and external resources; preference for concessional loans and FDI; HIPC resources important after completion point. - Financing risks: dependence on external aid and mining proceeds; unpredictability of aid; narrow nonmining base; failure to observe program commitments with Bretton Woods institutions jeopardizes HIPC/MDRI benefits. - Ten HIPC completion point monitoring indicators identified; six achieved, four pending; half-yearly monitoring and publication planned. ### Priority Action Plan and 100-Day Action Plan (selected budgetary aggregates and actions) - GRAND TOTAL FOR 100 DAY ACTION PLAN BUDGET: 1,207,704.0 (breakdown columns: 151,215.8 ; 148,911.2 ; 907,576.9). - POLICY 3: DEVELOPMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE total: 498,676.1. - POLICY 4: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION total: 207,209.7. - POLICY 5: DEFENSE AND SECURITY total: 25,030.0. - Selected 100-day allocations (exact entries preserved): - Free access to prenatal care consultations (M. Health): 23,000.0. - Purchase and distribution of 225,000 childbirth kits and 11,250 Caesarian kits: 28,828.0. - Reconditioning of 110kV Donkéah - Grandes Chutes line: 3,968.0. - Provision and installation of 3,500,000 low consumption lamps: 52,776.0. - Reconditioning and paving road/paving work and other transport interventions (numerous entries with exact GNF amounts in matrix). - Monitoring matrix medium-term targets (selected exact indicators): - Poverty rate: 58.0 (2010), 57.0 (2011), 56.0 (2012), 54.0 (2013). - Agricultural production of local paddy and other food products (metric tons): 1,466 (reference), 1,806 (target 2011), 2,000 (target 2012). - Electricity generation in MW: 660 (reference), 700 (target 2011), 750 (target 2012). - Increase % population with access to electricity from 18.1 percent (2007) to 20 percent in 2012. ### Public finance management reform program (selected measures with deadlines and estimated costs) - Priority measures include revising organic budget law, budget nomenclature, RGCP, PCE; design budget preparation model (estimated cost US$375,000; deadline December 1, 2011); update MSEGUI (estimated cost US$300,000; deadline June 1, 2011). - Single Treasury Account (CUT) and inventory of 1,823 accounts; quarterly inventory and closure deadlines (priority March 1, 2011). - Conduct quarterly audits of government procurement contracts (estimated cost US$100,000; priority March 1, 2011). - Clear domestic debt arrears and Treasury debit balance with BCRG (estimated cost US$100,000; priority June 1, 2011). - Launch PICOT modules finalization (Treasury accounting software) (estimated cost US$100,000; priority December 3, 2011). - Clean up payroll and civil service files (estimated cost US$300,000; priority June 2, 2011). *Source: 3. National Report on Human Development, 2008; United Nations Development Program and IMF staff compilation from content unit _cr1261.* ### PREFACE ### PREFACE ### Progress and key finding - The government has completed the extension of the poverty reduction strategy paper. - Measured poverty increased from 49.2 percent in 2002 to 58 percent in 2010. - Overall progress achieved is described as "well below the expectations legitimately harbored by the people in the early 2000s." ### Causes identified - Primary cause identified: poor governance. - The preface emphasizes that the flaw was not in the PRSP preparation process, which was "fully participatory" and involved contributions from each Guinean citizen. ### Principal service and infrastructure deficits highlighted - Lack of ready access to education and health services. - Inability to properly feed households. - Lack of rural roads and highways to transport production. - Need for electricity for lighting. - Additional unspecified daily-life concerns affecting livelihoods. ### Policy stance and implementation principles - Poverty is framed as a condition "not something over which we have no control." - Call for resolute, collective engagement ("each to the extent his or her abilities allow") in the struggle for development. - The return to constitutional order is described as initiating "a new era, an opportunity to be seized." - Commitment that "beginning today, our financial resources and those of our development partners will be used rationally and more transparently to ensure a better future for our children." - The document is presented as "the sole framework for all of our partners’ interventions" and "reflects all of our national priorities." ### Appeals for national ownership and unity - The PRSP extension should have the support of all Guineans, exemplified by: - "the shopkeeper in Madina, the peasant from Yomou, the rancher in Koubia, the planter in Kindia, and the artisan from Siguiri." - Citizens are urged to "make the most of these new opportunities" and "work hard in order to make our collective dream a reality." ### Closing conviction and leadership - Expressed conviction: "we have the capacity to defeat poverty." - Rallying call: "Let us find the means; they are within our reach, do not let them elude us." - Signed: /s/ Mohamed Saïd Fofana — Prime Minister, Head of Government *IMF staff compilation: PREFACE (from _cr1261 - PREFACE)* ### 3. National Report on Human Development, 2008; United Nations Development Program. ### 3. National Report on Human Development, 2008; United Nations Development Program ### Executive Summary — macroeconomic outcomes and social indicators - GDP growth over the period stood at 2.1 percent on average compared to a target of 5.3 percent. - Average year-on-year inflation was 13.7 percent compared to a target of 3 percent. - The budget deficit was 5.7 percent versus a target of 1.5 percent. - Underweight children under age five increased from 25.8 percent in 2005 to 26.1 percent in 2008. - Measles vaccination coverage for children under age 1 declined from 85.3 percent in 2007 to 65.4 percent in 2008. - Number of health centers: 399 in 2007 and 410 in 2009. - Gross national school enrollment ratio declined from 79 percent in 2007-2008 to 77 percent in 2008-2009; girls’ rate declined from 71 percent to 70 percent in the same periods. Objective was 83 percent. - National rate of access to electricity: 18.1 percent (urban: 68.9 percent; rural: 2 percent). - Access to safe drinking water was 73.8 percent in 2007, an increase of 11.6 percentage points in five years. - Incidence of poverty increased from 49.2 percent in 2002 to 58 percent in 2010. - Military expenditures represented 10.2 percent and 11 percent of GDP in 2010 and 2011, respectively. - Grain and petroleum prices increased 132 percent and 81 percent, respectively; mining receipts declined at a rate of 3 percent during 2009. ### Diagnosis of causes and constraints - Domestic factors identified: - political and institutional instability; - poor economic governance (violation of public procurement code, extracontractual exemptions, proliferation of special accounts within ministerial departments); - enormous pressure of military spending on the government budget. - Exogenous factors identified: - lack of external financial assistance; - international economic crisis affecting revenue transfers and increasing petroleum and food prices. - Result: weakened standard of living and constrained ability to support strong, sustainable growth. ### Strategic objectives and expected macroeconomic impact - Overarching objective: reestablish strong, sustainable economic growth in a favorable political and institutional context, sustained by the private sector. - Governance and capacity-building priorities: - Reform of defense and security forces to reduce military spending and reallocate resources to priority sectors (education, health, economic infrastructures). - Strengthen economic and financial administration capacity, including mastery of macroeconomic forecasting tools such as Guinean Economy Simulation Model (MSEGUI). - Strengthen civil society and civilian government institutions (Institutions Républicaines). - Effectively implement the Strategic Plan for Public Finance Reform, which includes six priority measures: - adopt an appropriate legal framework for public finances that incorporates reforms initiated in the subregion, - prepare reliable accounting trial balances and make up the delay in regard to budget execution laws, - conduct an audit of public contracts, - work toward implementation of the single Treasury account, - bring the civil service and payroll files up to date, - clear the Treasury liability to the central bank and domestic arrears. - Expected recovery trajectory if actions implemented: - economic growth could reach 4 percent in 2011 and 5.5 percent in 2012. - per capita GDP improvement to 0.7 percent in 2011 and 2.2 percent in 2012. ### Sectoral priorities and policy measures - Agriculture, livestock, fisheries: - Invest in sectors with growth potential via the National Agricultural Investment Program. - Progress expected to contribute to food security objectives. - Mining sector: - Opportunities from amendment of the mining code and resumption under the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative. - Revenue mobilization and public finance: - Increase tax rate to represent 17 percent of GDP. - Enforce centralized cash management. - Implement mechanisms to access innovative international financing (example cited: estimated €70 million in nonreimbursable subsidies to purchase medicines under the 2007-2011 program to control pandemics, financed by a not-yet-instituted tax on airline tickets). - Uphold central bank charter to limit monetary financing and preserve monetary and financial regulation. - Education and health: - Emphasis on improving girl/boy parity indices and infrastructure in education. - Focus on combating HIV/AIDS; improve access to primary health care services, particularly for rural women. - Implement plan to make cesarean sections available free of charge. - Water, electricity, and infrastructure: - Expand coverage for electricity and drinking water for Conakry and other large cities through programs such as the National Drinking Water and Sanitation Program and Integrated Water Resources Management Program. - Sector management measures: - efforts to control fraud, - payment of water and electricity invoices, - reduction of technical losses through rehabilitation of electricity and water distribution networks. - Social protection and housing: - Social coverage estimated at less than 3 percent of the population; strengthen and extend mutual health institutions (MURIGA). - Develop a national social protection policy involving government, private sector, and civil society. - Housing policy aims to improve living conditions for 75 percent of households living in slums and substantially increase tenure security via “Vision Habitat 2021.” - Environment and sustainable development: - Incorporate principles of sustainable development in national policies and programs; reverse loss of environmental resources and biodiversity. - Interventions to address sustainable management of natural resources, protection of soils, control of desertification and bush fires, protected areas, catchment areas, marine ecosystems, coasts, fisheries, and water resources; require environmental impact studies for infrastructure projects. ### Implementation, monitoring, evaluation, and risks - Monitoring framework: - An information system based on monitoring and assessing poverty and a matrix for monitoring PRS actions has been established with development partner support. - Government will ensure: better coordination of mechanisms, consistency of actions by units and bodies involved, and judicious use of available tools to facilitate decision-making for disadvantaged populations. - HIPC completion point status as of PRSP preparation: - Only six of the 10 triggers achieved: improving the poverty database; implementing regulatory framework for microfinance institutions; publishing annual report of National Governance and Anticorruption Agency (ANBGLC); improving primary school gross enrollment ratio; recruiting 1,500 teachers per year; expanding DPT3 vaccination coverage under the Expanded Vaccination Program (PEV). - Four triggers not achieved: satisfactory implementation of the PRSP; audit of large public contracts; increasing the rate of prenatal consultations; Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (not finalized due to the December 2008 coup). - Identified risks that could compromise implementation: - international economic and financial climate, - failure of development partners to fulfill commitments, - institutional and sub-regional political instability, - heavy dependence on external aid including an appreciable proportion of loans. - Government measures and stakeholder roles to minimize risks: - central government: (i) consolidate the democratic process and achievements; (ii) reestablish the macroeconomic framework; (iii) improve governance in public resource management; (iv) continue and expand delegated and decentralized management of public resources; (v) intensify efforts to control HIV/AIDS; - civil society: support intermediation and mobilization of populations; - private sector: seek partnerships to determine effective incentives and frameworks for income- and job-creating activities; - projects and programs: continue reforms to better align outcomes with PRS strategic objectives; - beneficiaries: intensify appropriation of the PRS to effectively involve beneficiaries in implementation; - Guinea’s partners: support the government in achieving the HIPC completion point before end-2011 and ensure better coordination of interventions. ### Document structure and next steps - The PRS2 extension to 2012 incorporates PRSP2 issues with increased emphasis on governance, reform of defense and security forces, consolidation of peace, and legal and judicial reform. - Following implementation of this PRS, a more detailed PRSP3 will be prepared at end-2012 covering a period of three years. - The document is organized into three sections: - general context of the 2011-2012 PRSP, lessons from PRSP II, and assessment of poverty; - strategy and priority actions (improving governance and institutional/human capacities; accelerating growth and job creation; improving access to quality social services); - implementation, monitoring, and evaluation of the poverty reduction strategy. *Source: 3. National Report on Human Development, 2008; United Nations Development Program (content unit _cr1261).* ### PART I: GENERAL CONTEXT AND POVERTY ASSESSMENT ### PART I: GENERAL CONTEXT AND POVERTY ASSESSMENT ### I.1.1. Political context - The presidential election of November 7, 2010 marked the beginning of Guinea’s return to constitutional order following a December 23, 2008 coup that brought a military junta to power. - The junta had suspended the Constitution and dissolved the National Assembly, creating a constitutional void that impacted government functioning. - The new context raises hopes for improved prospects after years of economic difficulties. - The crisis is attributed primarily to: - mismanagement of public resources; - weaknesses in the institutional, legal, and regulatory framework for businesses; - absence of dialogue with political parties, civil society, and the private sector. - Opportunities under the new framework: - improve macroeconomic and financial management by establishing and implementing policy measures, particularly in budget and monetary policy; - better budget execution in accordance with PRSP priorities; - continue reform of defense and security forces to create a republican corps focused on territorial defense and protection of persons and property; - reform the justice system and fight corruption to establish an independent, professional legal system that reassures investors and ensures enforcement of judicial decisions; - attract foreign private investment to improve the business climate. ### I.1.2. Economic context — key findings and statistics - 2010 macroeconomic indicators point to a difficult situation: - Economic growth rate in 2010: 1.9 percent. - Inflation rate projected for 2010: 20.8 percent. - Poverty incidence: - 2002: 49.2 percent (ELEP 2007 baseline). - 2007: 53 percent. - 2010 (projected): 58 percent. - Foreign reserves covered only two months of imports. - Domestic and external arrears increased sharply due to mismanagement of public finances. - External debt and debt service burden: - End-2010 stock of external debt: US$3 billion. - Average debt service: approximately US$175 million. - Debt represents 67 percent of GDP. - Ratio of debt service to tax revenue in 2010: 31.95 percent. - Consequences: - Debt constrains government’s ability to finance antipoverty interventions from the budget. - Government accumulated arrears to maintain domestic expenditures amid declining public investment. - Reaching the HIPC completion point is emphasized as key to freeing resources for priority sectors. - External context and import price shocks: - Between 2004 and 2007, prices of principal imported products increased by 26 percent overall. - In second half of 2008, international prices of food products (representing 32 percent of imports) increased by 89 percent. - Grains (rice and wheat) increased by an average of 132 percent. - Oil price climbed from US$65 to US$122 per barrel (86 percent increase). - July 2008 year-on-year comparisons: wheat +130 percent, rice +124 percent, oil +81 percent. - Dollar weakening compounded grain price increases versus currencies of principal rice exporters (Thailand, Vietnam, China). - Impact of the global financial crisis on fiscal revenue: - First eight months of 2009: fiscal revenue from the mining sector declined sharply at an average of 3 percent per month versus an increase of approximately 16 percent per month in the same period of 2008. - Mining receipts: 22 percent of fiscal revenue in 2008; 15 percent for January–August 2009. - Current account balance (commitment basis) monthly average: GNF 14 billion between January and August 2008 vs -GNF 35 billion during same period in 2009. - Risk to HIPC completion point unless trends are reversed. ### I.1.3. Lessons drawn from implementation of the PRSP2 (2007–2010) #### I.1.3.1. Improving governance and strengthening institutional and human capacities - PRSP2 emphasized governance but achieved little progress due to: - political problems from the 2008 coup causing institutional instability and absence of dialogue; - events of September 28, 2009 highlighted consequences. - Urgent reforms needed: - defense and security forces; - legal system; - deeper dialogue among stakeholders; consolidate peace. - Corruption and gender progress: - Objective to reduce corruption index from 36 percent in 2003 to 10 percent in 2010 was not achieved. - Women’s representation: - Of 114 deputies in the national assembly in 2008, only 22 were women. - Of 159 members of the National Transition Council, 39 (24 percent) were women versus PRSP2 target of 40 percent. - Governance indicator table excerpts (as reported): - Girl/boy parity: 0.81 (2006), 0.83 (2007), 0.81 (2008), 0.92 (2009), 0.92 (2010), 2010 Target 0, Difference 0. - Percentage of women in National Assembly or CNT: 19.3 (2006), 19.0 (2007), 19.0 (2008), 24 (2009), 40 (2010 Target), Difference -16. - Corruption index: 36 (2006 baseline), nd (2007–2010), 10 (2010 Target). - Number of private radio stations established: 5 (2006) → 42 (2010), including 25 commercial and foreign stations. - Progress noted: expansion of private radio stations from 5 in 2006 to 42 in 2010. #### I.1.3.2. Accelerating growth and creating job opportunities for all - Economic growth performance: - Growth averaged 2.1 percent between 2007 and 2009. - Annual growth: 1.8 percent (2007), 4.9 percent (2008), -0.3 percent (2009), 1.9 percent (2010). - PRSP2 target: 5.3 percent. - Inflation (year-on-year): 12.8 percent (2007), 13.5 percent (2008), 7.9 percent (2009), 20.8 percent (2010); average 13.7 percent for the period — above PRSP2 objective by 3 percent. - Per capita GDP: average annual decline of 1.1 percent (period) versus target of +1.9 percent. - Investment and budget: - Investment rate averaged 21.3 percent over the period vs objective of 17.4 percent. - Investments largely in nonproductive sectors (security and defense); financed from national development budget amid suspension of foreign aid. - Budget deficit averaged 5.7 percent over the period vs target of 1.5 percent. - Debt service burden: - Debt service as % of exports of goods and services averaged 13.7 percent vs target of 10 percent. - Principal macroeconomic indicators (Table 2 highlights): - Agriculture share in GDP (%): 13.4 (2006 baseline), 13.6 (2007), 13.4 (2008), 13.9 (2009), 14.2 (2010), Avg 2007–2010 13.8, 2010 Target 13.3, Difference 0.5. - Real GDP growth: 2.5 (2006 baseline), 1.8 (2007), 4.9 (2008), -0.3 (2009), 1.9 (2010), Avg 2007–2010 2.1, 2010 Target 5.3, Difference -3.2. - Per capita GDP growth: -1.1 (2006 baseline), -1.4 (2007), 1.7 (2008), -3.3 (2009), -1.3 (2010), Avg 2007–2010 -1.1, 2010 Target 1.9, Difference -3. - Year on year inflation rate: 39.1 (2006 baseline), 12.8 (2007), 13.5 (2008), 7.9 (2009), 20.8 (2010), Avg 2007–2010 13.7, 2010 Target 3.0, Difference -10.7. - Average annual inflation: 34.7 (2006 baseline), 22.9 (2007), 18.4 (2008), 4.7 (2009), 15.5 (2010), Avg 2007–2010 15.4, 2010 Target 4.6, Difference -10.8. - Agricultural growth rate: 4.4 (2006 baseline), 3.3 (2007), 3.8 (2008), 3.2 (2009), 3.2 (2010), Avg 2007–2010 3.4, 2010 Target 4.8, Difference -1.3. - Debt service as % of exports of goods and services: 19 (2006 baseline), 16.2 (2007), 15.9 (2008), 10.8 (2009), 11.8 (2010), Avg 2007–2010 14.0, 2010 Target 10.0, Difference -4.0. - Budget deficit excl. grants (commitment basis) as % of GDP: -2 (2006 baseline), -0.9 (2007), -1.7 (2008), -8.3 (2009), -11.7 (2010), Avg 2007–2010 -5.7, 2010 Target 1.5, Difference -4.2. - Investment rate: 22.4 (2006 baseline), 19.2 (2007), 21.3 (2008), 16.4 (2009), 18 (2010), Avg 2007–2010 18.7, 2010 Target 17.4, Difference 0.6. #### I.1.3.3. Improving access to quality social services - Education: - Human resource management shortcomings; urban overstaffing in teaching. - Gross enrollment ratio nationwide fell from 79 percent (2007–2008) to 77 percent (2008–2009) vs objective of 83 percent. - Girls’ ratio declined from 71 percent (2007–2008) to 70 percent (2008–2009). - Gross registration rates increased from 60 percent in 2000 (55 percent for girls) to 82 percent in 2007 (78 percent for girls). - Health: - Measles vaccination coverage for children under age 1 declined from 85.3 percent in 2007 to 65.4 percent in 2008. - Factors: inadequate financing; lack of qualified personnel and poor allocation (notably midwives in rural areas); concentration of professionals in urban areas; limited access to medicine and inadequate quality of health care structures. - Tuberculosis detection and treatment improved from 66.0 percent in 2007 to 71 percent in 2008. - Housing and sanitation: - Little progress; many planned projects not implemented. - Over 20 percent of households lacked toilets. - Roughly 82.6 percent of households dump their waste in the environment. - Only 1.1 percent of households have access to a sewer system. - Formulation of the Guinean national housing policy (PNHG) “Vision Habitat 2021” is noted as a hopeful step. - Infrastructure and services: - Electrification limited: access to electricity in 2007 was 18.1 percent nationwide (68.9 percent urban; 2 percent rural). - Access to clean drinking water in 2007: 73.8 percent (an increase of 11.6 percentage points in five years); projected 81 percent in 2010 vs objective of 90 percent. ### I.1.4. Participatory process — consultation and validation activities - The 2011-2012 PRSP reflects participation and empowerment principles from the February 2000 Policy Letter on Poverty Reduction. - Objectives of the participatory approach: - ensure strategy relevance for citizens, especially the poorest; - improve decision quality and process in public affairs management; - ensure greater efficiency in public action and consolidate gains. - Activities organized by the Permanent Secretariat for the Poverty Reduction Strategy (SP-SRP) with development partner support: - Preparation of two PRSP2 (2007–2010) implementation reports for 2007 and 2008 to evaluate results and propose measures for the 2011-2012 PRSP. - Preparation and presentation of regional PRSP implementation status reports by Regional Monitoring and Evaluation Units at a workshop in Mamou. - Workshop to develop the framework for monitoring PRSP results (January 25–27, 2011) preparing a matrix for monitoring PRSP outcomes. - Two regional PRSP presentation workshops: - Kindia administrative region (January 27–28, 2011), ~100 participants from prefectures and communes of Lower Guinea and Mid-Guinea. - Kankan (January 31–February 1, 2011), ~100 participants from Upper Guinea and Forested Guinea. - Presentation to members of government (seminar at Mariador Palace in Conakry, January 27–29, 2011). - Presentation to key government bodies (CNT, CES) with ~60 participants. - National PRSP validation workshop chaired by the Prime Minister with stakeholders including civil society, unions, NGOs, local elected officials, ministers, international institutions, and ambassadors. - A subjective survey of workshop participants (with World Bank support) found poverty perceptions focused on basic unmet needs: inadequate nutrition, lack of access to safe drinking water, and low income. ### I.1.5. The 2011-2012 PRSP and Priority Action Plan — objectives and pillar structure - Government short- and medium-term priorities: reform defense and security forces, preserve and consolidate social peace, and restart economic and social development. - Priority Action Plan is based on five main pillars aligned with the 2011-2012 PRSP: - Pillar 1: Improving governance and strengthening institutional and human capacities (PRSP Pillar 1 Good governance). - Pillar 2: Combating poverty (PRSP Pillar 2). - Pillar 3: Developing basic infrastructures (PRSP Pillar 3 Improving access to quality social services). - Pillar 4: Developing and expanding the economy (PRSP Pillar 4 Development and economic expansion). - Pillar 5: Reforming the defense and security forces. - The 2011-2012 PRSP focuses on achieving short-term development objectives, including the MDGs by 2015, through: - reinforcing governance; - developing basic infrastructures and social services; - re-launching sustainable economic growth; and - accelerating achievement of MDGs. *Source: _cr1261 - PART I: GENERAL CONTEXT AND POVERTY ASSESSMENT* ### Chapter 2. Poverty assessment ### Chapter 2. Poverty assessment ### Poverty conceptualization and data sources - Poverty is perceived as multidimensional, encompassing housing, employment, income, food access, and other living conditions. - Survey perceptions (individual Guineans): 7.2 percent defined poverty as lack of decent housing; 11.2 percent by unemployment; 15 percent by lack of income; 25 percent by inability to afford food. - Poverty analysis should address macroeconomic situation, consumption, energy, sanitation, etc. - Main statistical sources: three household surveys — the 1994 Comprehensive Consumption Budget Survey (EIBC 1994), the 2002 Comprehensive Poverty Evaluation Baseline Survey (EIBEP 2002), and the 2007 Limited Poverty Assessment Survey (ELEP 2007). - Comparability across 1994, 2002, and 2007 survey series is limited by differing methodologies, especially for trend analysis where methodological differences were not estimated. ### Population characteristics (2007 and background) - Population in 2007 estimated at 9.68 million, with 51.9 percent women and 48.1 percent men. - Half the population was under age 16; 4.5 percent were age 65 or older. - Population growth rate: 3.1 percent per year. - Household headship: 85 percent of Guineans live in households headed by a man. - Typical situations for women heads of household: widowed; married to a polygamist who is declared head of another household; married to an absent husband — these account for nearly all households headed by women. - Education: heads of household average age close to 52. Two-thirds of persons age 15-19 attend or have attended school compared to one-fifth of those age 50-54. - Over three-fourths of the population live in households headed by an individual who has never attended school. - Only 4 percent of the population live in households headed by an individual who has attended university. - In Conakry: one-half of heads of household have had no schooling and 15 percent have attended university. - Economic activity and occupation: - Over 56 percent of Guineans support themselves through agriculture. - Two out of three households include three or more persons employed in agriculture (subsistence, family based). - Crafts and unskilled trades (informal sector) support one out of five Guineans. - In Conakry, agriculture accounts for 1.4 percent of inhabitants; crafts and unskilled trades 42.2 percent; employees about one out of three; persons in households where the head is unemployed one out of four. - Labor market indicators: - In Conakry, unemployment rate for population age 15 and older was 10.2 percent in 2002-2003. - Underemployment (working less than 39 weeks per year): nearly 11.8 percent of the active workforce age 15 and older. - In 2002-2003, three-fourths of the unemployed were long-term unemployed (over one year). ### Poverty profile and trends (1994–2007; projections to 2010) - National poverty incidence and indicators: - 1994: 62.6 percent of the population lived below the poverty line; poverty gap 28.5 percent; poverty severity 16.1 percent. - 2002: 49.2 percent lived below the poverty line (absolute reduction of 13.4 percent and nearly 27.2 percent in relative terms); poverty gap 17.2 percent; poverty severity 8.1 percent. - 2007: 53 percent of Guineans, or 5.1 million inhabitants, were poor; poverty incidence 30.5 percent in urban areas and 63 percent in rural areas. - Table 3 (selected indicators reproduced exactly as presented) - Indicator | 1994 Urban | 1994 Rural | 1994 Total | 2002 Urban | 2002 Rural | 2002 Total | 2007 Urban | 2007 Rural | 2007 Total - Incidence: 17.5 | 82.1 | 62.6 | 23.5 | 59.9 | 49.1 | 30.5 | 63.0 | 53.0 - Depth: 4.2 | 39.1 | 28.5 | 6.0 | 21.9 | 17.2 | 7.7 | 22.0 | 17.6 - Severity: 1.5 | 22.5 | 16.1 | 2.4 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 10.5 | 8.2 - Source: Authors’ calculations based on EIBC, EIBEP and ELEP data. - Post-2002 deterioration and drivers: - After 2002-2003, situation deteriorated due to poor governance and gross mismanagement of public assets, leading to suspension of the PRGF program. - Between 2002/03 and 2007, incidence of poverty increased in Boké, Conakry, Kindia, Mamou and Nzérékoré regions, and declined in Faranah, Kankan and Kindia regions. - The 2002–2007 increase in poverty was greater in urban than rural areas and reflected a larger share of the population situated further below the poverty line in 2007 than in 2002/03. - Macroeconomic context and 2008–2009 developments: - Rate of inflation: 39.2 percent in 2006; reduced to 12.5 percent in 2007. - Growth rate: estimated at over 4 percent in 2008. - After 2007, political instability and death of the President in December 2008 led to CNDD takeover; socioeconomic and political situation sharply deteriorated. - 2009: real growth rate estimated at -0.3 percent; per capita growth rate -1.3 percent. - Simulation of likely trends 2007–2010 using poverty-growth elasticity: - Poverty-growth elasticity used: -0.12 between 2002 and 2007. - Simulation result: poverty rate could reach 58 percent in 2010 (PRSP2 objective was to reduce poverty to 49.7 percent in 2010). - Depth of poverty projected to increase to 20.1 percent in 2010. - Severity of poverty projected to increase to 10.2 percent in 2010. - Drivers of past poverty decline (1994–2002): - Decline primarily the result of economic growth and reduced inequality. - Per capita income grew an average of 2% per annum over the period. - Inequality measured by dispersion ratio Q5/Q1 declined from 12 in 2002 to 5 in 2007. - Gini coefficient: 0.480 in 1994/95; 0.415 in 2002/03; 0.326 in 2007. - Interpretation: indices reflect decreased inequality and also reflect a reduction in spending by the richest; dispersion ratio indicates slight improvement in meeting the needs of the poorest. ### Household perceptions and consumption patterns (2003–2007) - Table 4 (satisfaction of households’ needs in previous 5 years, 2003–2007) — national summary (exact values reproduced as in source): - National satisfaction level by quintile: - Improved: Poorest 9.17 | Q2 10.31 | Q3 8.7 | Q4 10.78 | Richest 15.15 | Total 10.82 - Maintained: Poorest 29.9 | Q2 35.11 | Q3 37.45 | Q4 41.63 | Richest 43.09 | Total 37.43 - Declined: Poorest 60.34 | Q2 53.62 | Q3 53.33 | Q4 46.42 | Richest 40.73 | Total 50.89 - Not reported: Poorest 0.59 | Q2 0.96 | Q3 0.52 | Q4 1.17 | Richest 1.02 | Total 0.85 - Source: ELEP 2007 - Aggregate perceptions: - 39.4 percent of households report no change in terms of basic needs being met. - 10.8 percent of households reported improvement. - 50.9 percent of households reported deterioration. - Proportions similar across Conakry, other urban areas, and rural areas; improvement more often reported among the well-off (fifth quintile: 15 percent report improvement). - Consumption composition (2007 vs 2002): - Food consumption (cash, farm consumption, picking, barter): 69.2 percent of total consumption in 2007; 53 percent in 2002. - Shoes and clothing: 4.1 percent in 2007; 9.5 percent in 2002. - Transport: 5 percent in 2007. - Health-related expenditures: 3.8 percent in 2007. - Geographic and demographic distribution of poverty: - Urban areas account for 30.7 percent of population but 17.7 percent of the poor. - Rural areas account for 69.3 percent of population but 82.3 percent of the poor. - Regional poverty rates outside Conakry range from 50 percent to 64 percent. - Regions with lowest incidence of poverty: Mamou, Boké, and Faranah. - Three regions (Nzérékoré, Kindia, and Kankan) alone account for nearly 55 percent of the poor. - Poverty and household head characteristics: - One-half of persons living in households headed by a man are poor compared to 46 percent of households headed by a woman. - Survey result may reflect typology: half of female-headed households are headed by a widow or divorcee; the other half by married women who are heads only because the husband is absent (husband may continue to provide for household needs). ### Determinants of poverty - Regression analysis using per capita spending as a percentage of the poverty line (dependent variable) finds: - Educational level of the head of household and spouse are significant determinants of poverty. - Effect of head of household educational level on poverty reduction is substantial only for secondary school or higher. - Gender and labor market: - Women’s skills are not as highly valued in rural as in urban job markets due to shortage of attractive jobs. - Status of head of household employed in private enterprise is associated with a higher standard of living than that of an independent worker. - Infrastructure and access: - Weak access to infrastructures imposes high transaction costs that reduce well-being. - In rural areas, travel time to the closest health care center is higher for the poorest households, indicating they live in localities where such services are distant or transportation means are nonexistent. *Source: Chapter 2. Poverty assessment (EIBC 1994, EIBEP 2002, ELEP 2007 results and authors’ calculations).* ### Box 1: Results of survey of subjective poverty ### Box 1: Results of survey of subjective poverty ### Survey overview - Survey conducted during PRSP validation workshops with World Bank support, February 2011. - Method: brief individual questionnaire administered to 658 persons, of whom 229 were workshop participants. - Purpose: participatory assessment of subjective poverty as perceived by workshop participants and certain residents in Kindia, Kankan, and Conakry. ### Perceptions of poverty (what respondents identify as sources) - 44 percent: poverty is above all inadequate nutrition. - 14 percent: lack of income. - 13 percent: lack of employment. - 7 percent: lack of health care. - 6 percent: lack of support. - 3 percent: lack of education. - 0 percent: lack of power (not considered a source of poverty by respondents). - Interpretive finding from the source: respondents primarily view poverty as a handicap in meeting biological needs (nutritional needs), implying food security should be central to poverty reduction strategy, followed by increasing household income through access to paying jobs. ### Household incidence and income stability - 70 percent of persons surveyed said their household was poor. - 5 percent considered the household standard of living good. - Approximately 85 percent said their households lacked stable income. - 51 percent considered the household income low for the past three years. - Principal household strategies to improve standard of living (respondents’ choices): - Finding a decent job: 19 percent (principal strategy chosen by 35 percent of respondents as the single strategy they would employ). - Using credit: 18 percent. - Taking on additional work: 16 percent. ### Nutrition and food security at household level - 75 percent reported their households consume fewer than three meals per day. - 52 percent stated the household lacked sufficient quantities and quality of food. - 9 percent reported the household was well fed in terms of quantity and quality. - Conclusion: 91 percent of respondents’ households faced nutritional problems (100 percent − 9 percent well fed = 91 percent with problems). ### Access to basic social services - 24 percent stated that at least one household member had been excluded from school during the previous 12 months for non-payment of school fees. - 31 out of 100 respondents (31 percent) stated that at least one household member had been unable to receive health care in the prior 12 months because they could not afford it. ### Perception of poverty in respondents’ localities and community priorities - 46 percent said that the majority of residents of their locality were poor. - 21 percent considered all of the residents poor. - Combined: 67 percent of respondents viewed the inhabitants of their locality as poor. - Principal community priorities to fight poverty (respondents’ citations): - Drinking water supply: 21 percent. - Fight against food insecurity: 19 percent. - Promotion of productive activities: 12 percent. - Jobs for youths: 10 percent. - School construction: 7 percent. - Construction of health care facilities: 6 percent. - Children’s education: 6 percent. - Road construction: 5 percent. - Interpretive finding from the source: access to nutrition was a constant concern in respondents’ priorities for fighting poverty. ### Contextual linkage with regional and national indicators (textual connections in source) - The survey results “confirmed the increasing trend of all aspects of poverty in Guinea since 2007” (as reported by the source). - The source links household-level subjective perceptions (notably emphasis on food insecurity and need for jobs) to broader analyses in the report regarding regional disparities, food insecurity, education, malnutrition, and health outcomes (these broader analyses are described elsewhere in the source document). *Source: Participatory survey, 2011. World Bank* ### 11.6 percentage points between 2002 and 2007, or roughly 2.4 percent per year. Local rates ranged from 94.1 ### _cr1261 - 11.6 percentage points between 2002 and 2007, or roughly 2.4 percent per year. Local rates ranged from 94.1 ### Access to safe drinking water - National progress: - Access increased by "11.6 percentage points between 2002 and 2007, or roughly 2.4 percent per year." - Access is expected to reach "81.0 percent in 2010," with "progress much more pronounced in rural than urban areas." - Regional and urban/rural rates (2007 and related figures): - "rate of access in 2007 was 67.1 percent in rural areas compared to over 91.2 percent in urban areas." - "Conakry" about "98 percent." - "Kankan and Faranah had the highest rates, averaging 87.9 percent and 83.1 percent, respectively." - Other regions: "apart from Kindia (55.7 percent) and Mamou (45.4 percent), rates in the other regions ranged between 66 and 77 percent." - Supply infrastructure and implementation: - "SNAPE completed 728 modern water points in 2007 and 679 in 2008, bringing the total number of modern water points close to the target of 15,000 by 2010." - "At this date, 14,792 water points have been completed, representing an execution rate of 98.6 percent." - Sector constraints: - "limited production and water treatment capacity relative to demand" - "limited geographic coverage of the water distribution network" - "significant technical losses and commercial fraud" - "unavailability of installed capacity due to lack of maintenance or fuel" - "weaknesses in the legal and institutional framework" - Household definition note: - A household has access to safe drinking water if "the time to travel from home to a source of water and back is less than 30 minutes." ### Poverty and HIV/AIDS - Prevalence and demographics: - "The prevalence of HIV in Guinea has reached the generalized phase (1.5 percent)." - "The prevalence of HIV among persons age 15 to 24 is clearly below the national average." - "Women are twice as vulnerable as men among the population at large as well as the 15-24 age group." - "High fertility rates among this age group (154 per thousand) reflect the proportion of unprotected sexual relations." - Behavioral drivers: - "risk behavior such as high-risk unprotected sex or relations with multiple partners remains the principal cause of the spread of HIV in Guinea." - Survey results (EDS-2005 and trend): - "more than half (53.6 percent) of all sexually active men report having had high-risk sexual relations during the 12 months preceding the survey, a proportion three times higher than for women (15.6 percent)." - "The proportion is 94.8 percent among young men age 15-24 compared to 36.0 percent for young women in the same age group." - "if the trend observed between 2005 and 2007 continued, the objective established for 2015 (90 percent) [...] would already have been achieved in 2008." - Financing and policy implications: - "the fight against HIV/AIDS is too dependent on external resources." - The government "should devote additional efforts to cover these expenditures during periods when disbursements are suspended." - "To achieve a reduction in HIV prevalence, the various stakeholders involved must be able to cooperate without interruption." - External support example: "with the Global Fund in particular, the current prevalence could be reduced substantially by end-2015." ### Poverty and access to energy - Household lighting and electricity access (2007): - "Storm lanterns were the main source of light for 47 percent of households in 2007." - "in rural areas, the proportion of households using this source was 56 percent, and in poor urban areas the proportion was 32 percent." - "The 2007 ELEP found that electricity is used by only 18.1 percent of households in Guinea." - Urban/rural and utilization details: - "68.9 percent of urban households have access to electricity, only 62.4 percent use it." - "In rural areas, the rate of access is 2 percent compared to 0.9 percent utilization." - "In poor urban areas, the access rate is 54.3 percent compared to 48.8 percent utilization." - "in poor rural areas the rates are 1.5 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively." - Regional electricity access/utilization examples: - "Boké, the rate of access to electricity is 16.3 percent versus 14.8 percent utilization." - "Nzérékore; 1.5 percent and 0.1 percent." - "Faranah; 3.4 percent and 2.1 percent." - "Kancan; 0.3 percent and 0 percent." - "Kindia; 17.2 percent and 10.2 percent." - "Conakry; 94.7 percent and 89.1 percent." - Sector challenges and demand growth: - "lack of investment in all segments of the sector" - "lack of production capacity and insufficient high-voltage/low-voltage transport with respect to strong growth in demand (6 to 8 percent per year)" - "unavailability of installed production capacity due to lack of maintenance and fuel" - "significant technical and commercial bosses over the network" (as stated) - "limited coverage of the distribution network" - "inadequate legal and institutional framework" - Cooking fuels and environmental concern: - "78 percent of households use wood for cooking." - "96.2 percent in rural areas and 43 percent among the urban poor." - "Among rural households, 98.3 percent use both wood and charcoal compared to 96.0 percent in urban areas." - "The large percentage of households using these sources of energy represents a major concern for environmental protection." ### Poverty and access to decent housing and sanitation - Strategic alignment: - Housing approach aligned with MDGs (Goal 7 and Goal 11) and PRSP; indicator mention: "indicator 32 concerns 'proportion of households with access to secure housing tenancy'." - Urbanization and land management: - "Conakry, in particular, occupies less than 1 percent of the national territory but represents one-fifth of the total population and over 40 percent of administrative and commercial activities." - Land constraints: "insecure land tenure and land conflicts" and "unauthorized subdivisions" developed "in disregard of real estate and property rules established by law." - Housing supply constraints: - "(i) lack of appropriate financing mechanisms;" - "(ii) the absence of a bank dedicated to (social) housing and absence of mortgage lines of credit among products offered by the traditional banking and finance segments;" - "(iii) the weak framework promotes self-help construction and impacts the production of rural housing in particular, which concerns over 70 percent of the Guinean population;" - "(iv) the extent of poverty, which prevents a large proportion of Guineans from accessing housing because of high production costs." - Existing housing quality and overcrowding: - "Over 80 percent of existing housing consists of improvised dwellings located in unauthorized developments completely lacking in infrastructure." - "In 2007, 67.9 percent of Guinean homes had corrugated sheet metal, tile/slate, or concrete/cement roofs, and 31.9 percent had thatch or straw." - "In urban areas, nearly all homes (90 percent) had metal roofing, while 42 percent of rural homes were covered with thatch or straw." - Flooring (selected years): - "48.8 percent of homes nationwide and 11.8 percent of urban homes had dirt floors in 2003." - "In 2005, the rates were 56 percent nationwide and 9.3 percent in urban areas." - "The 2007 estimates were 53 percent nationwide and 17 percent for urban areas." - Occupancy density: - "number of persons per room ... was 2.7 in Conakry and 2.4 in the other urban centers in 1994." - "The rate was virtually unchanged in 2007 at 2.64 for Conakry and 2.54 for other urban centers." - Sanitation and waste management: - "In 2007, 31.3 percent of households had adequate toilets (flushing, covered latrines, or improved ventilated latrines) compared to 25.4 percent in 2002, or an annual increase of 1.2 percent." - "Households with flushing toilets were rare (fewer than 3 percent)." - "Barely 1 percent of households had access to a sewage system." - "Even in Conakry, that rate was 2.2 percent in 2007." - "roughly 21 percent of households lack toilets." - "With current trends, only 34.9 percent of households will have adequate toilets in 2010." - "Over 9 out of 10 homes (90.7 percent) dispose of wastewater in the street or the environment. In urban areas, this rate is 76.1 percent." - Household waste disposal: - "80 percent of households nationwide and 53.6 percent of urban households dispose of waste in the environment." - "proportion of households using private or trash collection services or public refuse containers declined ... from 12.8 percent in 2002/03 to 9.4 percent in 2007." - "9.8 percent of households use such services or public trash containers." - "only 6.7 percent of households practice a sanitary mode of waste disposal." - Public health risk: "Elimination of garbage and pollutants from water remains a crucial health problem in urban areas ... repeated flooding of certain neighborhoods can lead to alarming public health situations." ### Poverty and Employment - Unemployment and underemployment (2002–2007): - "the unemployment rate increased from 10.2 percent to 15 percent in Conakry and declined from 6.7 percent to 3.2 percent in other cities between 2002 and 2007." - "Of the total workforce, 9.1 percent were underemployed in 2007 compared to 11.8 percent in 2002." - "Women are 1.4 times more likely to be underemployed than men, with rates of 7.5 percent for men and 10.5 percent for women in 2007." - "the rate of underemployment declined significantly for all groups, particularly for women, for whom it declined from 13.3 percent to 10.5 percent." - "A larger proportion of the underemployed workforce comes from rural (11.1 percent) than urban areas (5.4 percent)." - Employment structure and informality: - "Among the working population, 67.1 percent were independent workers in 2007 compared to 53.3 percent in 2002." - "The proportion working in family-based businesses declined from 36.5 percent in 2002 to 23.8 percent in 2007." - Observations: "formal enterprises are rarely created in Guinea, and the supply of wage-earning positions is quite limited," leading to "a multitude of informal activities that barely provide a living." - Policy implication: "This situation is of particular concern for the young, and calls for greater mobilization and initiative on their part to access decent jobs." ### Poverty, gender and equity - Education gender parity: - Primary school girl/boy ratio: "0.72 in 2002, stood at 0.76 and 0.83 in 2005 and 2007, respectively, or an annual increase of 0.01 point." - Projection: "If the increase continues, the ratio should stand at about 0.92 in 2010." - Secondary education: "girl/boy ratio was 0.45 in 2005 and 0.55 in 2008." - Universities: "girl/boy ratio was 0.18 in 2002, and improved to 0.25 and 0.29 in 2005 and 2007, respectively." Projection: "the ratio was expected to be 0.3 in 2008." - Female participation in employment and public sector: - "The proportion of female employees in non-agricultural sectors increased to 27.1 percent in 2002." - Civil service: "out of the total staff of 68,715, only 18,229 were women (26 percent)." - Education sector: "Among primary school teachers, the ratio of women to men was 0.35 in 2007; in the same year, the ratio for secondary school was estimated at 0.06." - Food insecurity and gender: - "The prevalence of food insecurity is also higher among female-headed households, at 42.4 percent, compared to" [text ends]. *Source: ELEP 2007 and EDS-2005 as presented in the supplied content.* ### 30.2 percent among households headed by men. ### _cr1261 - 30.2 percent among households headed by men. ### Women's representation and human capital: status and trends - At end-2006, women holding seats in the National Assembly: 22 out of 114 deputies, or 19.3 percent. - Number of women deputies reduced to 19 in 2007 (16.7 percent) following the deaths of three of them. - Bureau of the National Assembly: 12 percent of positions of responsibility held by women. - Parliamentary administration: 23 percent of positions held by women. - No female Quaestors or chairpersons on any parliamentary committee or group. - Supreme Court: three of the 17 judges are women, or 21 percent. - Economic and Social Council: 11 women out of 45 members, or 24 percent. - National Communication Council: 1 woman out of 9 members. - Total across key institutions cited: 36 of 208 decision-makers are women, or 17 percent (Guinea’s 2009 national progress report on the MDGs). - Central government positions of responsibility: of 3,003 identified posts, 520 are held by women (17 percent). - Most frequent appointments for women in government: National Director (23 percent), advisor (22 percent). - Chief of staff positions: 21 percent held by women, 79 percent by men. - Secretary-generals of ministries: 4 percent are women. - Diplomatic posts: 15 of 214 slots held by women, or 23 percent. - Education attainment indicators: - Girl/boy ratio at elementary level: 0.83 in 2007. - Ratio for higher education and university: 0.3. - Proportion of women employed in the non-agricultural sector: 27 percent. - Expectation stated: with emphasis on educating girls, the ratio is expected to visibly improve in the future. ### Poverty, governance, and institutional weaknesses Findings on security, justice, and corruption: - Recruiting system for defense and security forces favors ethnicity over intellectual and physical aptitudes, reducing the national character of forces. - Difference in treatment between senior ranks and other troops has provoked unrest and mutinies. - Lack of discipline undermines operations in the army, police, and paramilitary Gendarmerie. - Involvement of defense and security forces in drug trafficking noted; seizures of contraband are not always reported for incineration. - 2007 ELEP: roughly 74 percent of citizens do not trust the legal system, considering it ineffective, biased, and corrupt. - Violations of basic human rights continued and worsened over the past three years, illustrated by repression of the September 28, 2009 demonstrations. - 2007 ELEP: 89 percent of the population considered corruption a significant problem that hinders development and aggravates poverty. - Decentralization gaps: - Transfers of funds from the national budget to local governments not fully implemented, particularly since 2007. - Weak human resources among local administrators and elected officials constrain development of local administrations. - Over 30 percent of the population feel the administration’s credibility is undermined by lack of professionalism, respect for ethics, and sense of civic duty. - Administration accused of corruption, collusion with business interests, and widespread misappropriation of public assets. - Concluding assessment: strengthening human and institutional capacities is the sine qua non of economic and social progress in Guinea. ### Key PRSP2 monitoring indicators and outcomes (selected figures from Table 5) - Incidence of income poverty: 53.6% (2005 baseline); 2007: 53%; 2008: 53%; 2009: 57%; 2010: 58%; Average 2007–2010: 49.70%; 2010 Target: -8.30% (difference). - Depth of poverty: 19.3% (2005); 2007: 17.60%; 2008: 17.70%; 2009: 17.90%; 2010: 18.10%; Average 2007–2010: 17.40%; Difference: -0.70%. - Number of inhabitants per magistrate: 36000 (2007 baseline); 2007–2010: 36000; Average 36000.00; 2010 Target: 28925; Difference: -7075. - Number of inhabitants per police officer: 2450 (2006); 2007–2010: 2450; Average 2450.00; 2010 Target: 778; Difference: -1,672. - Mobile telephone density: 4.5% (2005); 2007: 21%; 2008: 36.70%; Average 25%. - Fixed telephone density: 0.3% (2005); 2007: 2%; 2008: 2.30%; 2010 Target: 15%. - Agriculture share in GDP: 12.4% (2006); 2007: 13.60%; 2008: 13.40%; 2009: 13.90%; 2010: 14.20%; Average 13.8; 2010 Target: 13.30%; Difference: -0.50%. - Real GDP growth: 2.5% (2006); 2007: 1.80%; 2008: 4.90%; 2009: -0.30%; 2010: 1.90%; Average 2.1; 2010 Target: 5.30%; Difference: -3.20%. - Per capita GDP growth: -1,1% (2006); 2007: -1.40%; 2008: 1.70%; 2009: -3.30%; 2010: -1.30%; Average -1.1; 2010 Target: 1.90%; Difference: -3. - Year on year inflation: 39.1% (2006); 2007: 12.80%; 2008: 13.50%; 2009: 7.90%; 2010: 20.80%; Average 13.7; 2010 Target: 3.00%; Difference: -10.70%. - Average annual inflation: 34.7% (2006); 2007: 22.90%; 2008: 18.40%; 2009: 4.70%; 2010: 15.60%; Average 15.4; 2010 Target: 4.60%; Difference: -10.80%. - Agricultural growth rate: 4.4% (2006); 2007: 3.30%; 2008: 3.80%; 2009: 3.40%; 2010: 3.60%; Average 3.7; 2010 Target: 4.80%; Difference: -1.10%. - Debt service as % of exports: 18.7% (2006); 2007: 17.70%; 2008: 15.70%; 2009: 10.80%; 2010: 11.80%; Average 14.0; 2010 Target: 10.00%; Difference: -4.00%. - Budget deficit excl. grants (commitment basis) as % of GDP: 1.8% (2006); 2007: 0.90%; 2008: 1.80%; 2009: 8.30%; 2010: 11.70%; Average 5.7; 2010 Target: 1.50%; Difference: -3.20%. - Investment rate: 12.1% (2006); 2007: 29.50%; 2008: 21.30%; 2009: 16.40%; 2010: 18.00%; Average 21.3; 2010 Target: 17.40%; Difference: 3.90%. - Tax burden as % of GDP: 14.6% (2006); 2007: 13.50%; 2008: 15.7%; 2009: 15.4%; 2010: 16.4%; Average 7.25; 2010 Target: 17.90%; Difference: 1.5%. - Foreign reserves as months of imports: 0.8 (2006); 2007: 0.4; 2008: 1.1; 2009: 1.4; 2010: 1.9; Average 1.20; 2010 Target: 3; Difference: -1.8. - Unemployment rate, persons age 15 and older: 3.2% (2002); 2007: 1.60%; Average 1.60%. - Primary school gross enrollment ratio: 78% (2006); 2007: 79%; 2008: 79%; 2009: 78%; 2015 Target: 100%. - Primary school girl/boy parity: 0.81 (2006); 2007: 0.83; 2008: 0.82; 2009: 0.83; 2015 Target: 0.92. - Current education spending/total government spending: 12.3% (2006); 2007: 13.10%; 2008: 15%; 2010 Target: 18.90%. - Net primary school enrollment: 63% (2006); 2007: 64%; 2008: 62%; 2009: 63%; 2015 Target: 90%. - Rate of access, 1st year of primary school: 60% (2006); 2007: 77%; 2008: 76%; 2009: 82; 2015 Target: 100%. - Primary school completion rate: 60% (2006); 2007: 59%; 2008: 51%; 2009: 59%; 2015 Target: 79%. - Adult literacy rate (age 15 and older): 35% (2006); 2007: 34.50%; 2008: 34.50%; 2012 Target: 50%. - Tuberculosis vaccination coverage: 71% (2004); 2007: 81%; 2008: 72%; 2010 Target: 80%; Difference: -8%. - DPT3 vaccination coverage: 89% (2005); 2007: 88%; 2008: 84%; 2010 Target: 100%; Difference: -16%. - Measles vaccination coverage: 71% (2004); 2007: 86.00%; 2008: 87%; 2010 Target: 80%; Difference: 7.00%. - Yellow fever vaccination coverage: 84% (2005); 2007: 85%; 2008: 84%; 2010 Target: 100%; Difference: -16%. - Tetanus vaccination coverage: 75% (2005); 2007: 82%; 2008: 61%; 2010 Target: 80%; Difference: -19%. - Prenatal consultation rate: 82.1% (2005); 88.2% (2007). - Proportion of women holding seats in parliament: 19% (2006); 2007: 19%; 2008: 19%; 2010 Target: 44%; Difference: -25%. ### Strategy and priority actions: governance, defense, security, and justice Overall governance objective: - Address a serious deficit of governance identified in the 2005 PRSP assessment; poor governance is described as a root cause of increased poverty and adversely impacting economic growth. - Reestablish constitutional order, guarantee security of property and persons, and restore independence and credibility of judicial administration. - Fight against corruption through respect and effective enforcement of laws. - Modernize the administration and strengthen decentralization to transfer authority and resources to local governments. - Professionalize the civil service and deepen decentralization to support sustained, equitable growth. - Promote a national dialogue among all sectors of society as a guarantee of national unity. Reform of defense and security forces (objectives and planned measures): - Military spending currently represents 10 percent of GDP and roughly 37 percent of the central government budget. - Principal objective: gradually and steadily reduce military spending to devote majority of budget resources to priority sectors (education, health, roads, agriculture) while ensuring territorial integrity and protection of persons and property. - Planned measures (selection): - assumption of a substantial portion of the cost of reform by certain partners; - preparation of a reform plan extending over at least five years; - restoration of quarters and construction of infrastructures to enable forces to live in barracks in accordance with military regulations; - logistics support and training in republican principles of good governance and democracy; - clarification of status by army corps, professionalization of each specialty corps, and reappraisal of working conditions and compensation; - improvement of recruiting process to promote multiethnic participation and comply with laws and regulations; - inclusion of civic education in training for new recruits; - redeployment of certain members in honorary capacities or as appointees (diplomatic missions, international institutions); - reintegration of discharged staff and units into civilian society; - continuation and intensification of efforts against drug trafficking, proliferation of small arms, and trafficking in children; - creation of a social service and mutual support association for each entity (army, police, and Gendarmerie); - promoting and increasing participation by defense and security forces in electoral process, dialogue, reconciliation, and sustainable human development actions; - strengthening civilian-military dialogue, including seminars on civilian-military relations; - participation in UN peacekeeping missions and regional/subregional organizations; - strengthening subregional and regional integration of technical assistance and international cooperation in defense and security; - professionalization of community and local police forces; - strengthening neighborhood security through recruitment of sufficient numbers of policemen; - restructuring and revitalizing fire brigades by increasing personnel and material resources; - preparing, adopting, and disseminating a framework law on the police force. Strengthening capacities to consolidate peace and manage conflict: - Peace, stability, and security are prerequisites for poverty reduction; past events (January–February 2007 and December 28, 2009) underscore cost of conflict. - Essential measures (selection): - strengthening civilian-military dialogue; - implementation of a permanent framework for dialogue and reconciliation at national and local levels composed of representatives of all stakeholders; - development of a national plan to prevent, manage, and resolve conflicts and consolidate peace; - implementation of a national and local early warning and conflict prevention system supported by community entities (groups of elders, religious institutions, media, women, youths, security and defense); - continued training of defense and security forces in human rights and humanitarian law; - decentralization of the office of Mediator of the Republic to regional and prefectural levels; - outreach on texts relating to the role and responsibilities of the mediator; - strengthening capacities of civil society organizations active in promoting peace, protecting human rights, and upholding humanitarian law. Improving judicial governance: - Major problem: inadequate number of judges, roughly 250, or a ratio of one judge per 38,000 inhabitants (accepted standard one per 10,000 inhabitants; PRSP2 target one judge per 28,000 inhabitants not achieved). - Objective: strengthen credibility and authority of the legal system to restore independence and integrity and make justice accessible to all. - Planned actions relate essentially to two areas: implementing the framework law for the judiciary; (text concludes with this stated focus). *Source: IMF country report content provided in the supplied PDF excerpt.* ### 2. ensuring that the judiciary oversight body (Conseil supérieur de la magistrature) and the ### 2. ensuring that the judiciary oversight body (Conseil supérieur de la magistrature) and the Disciplinary Board are fully operational ### Judiciary sector strengthening - Increase the budget for the justice sector, which is currently quite low at roughly 1 percent of the national budget. - Implement targeted, positive measures to redeploy and motivate judiciary personnel (judges, clerks, and other staff), particularly at the prefectural and regional courts and tribunals. - Implement a continuing education program for judges and judiciary personnel. - Strengthen the capacities of the professional associations of solicitors, notaries, process-servers, and auctioneers to ensure that decisions of the courts and tribunals are properly executed. - Rebuild the central courthouse. - Organize judiciary conferences. ### Improving political and democratic governance - Context and objectives: - The weakness of the central government has manifested in inability to promote development, loosening of rules of the political game, deteriorating relations among communities, deteriorating economic and social infrastructures, and lack of a forceful, politically legitimate authority. - Objectives: (i) increasing participation by political actors and civil society in the democratic process through the organization of free and transparent local and community elections; and (ii) improving the work of the institutions responsible for conducting the democratic process. - Strategic actions: - Strengthen capacities of the National Transition Council or the National Assembly through support for constitutional reforms and accompanying outreach throughout the country. - Institutional reform and strengthening of the National Independent Election Commission to ensure effective participation by political actors in activities to promote democracy. - Strengthen capacities of the High Authority on Communication (HAC) through enactment of the new press law in June 2010 to enable it to fulfill its role of regulating media operations. - Note: the implementing regulations concerning the HAC will not enter into force until all of the key civilian institutions (Institutions Républicaines) have been established following the transition process. - Consolidate peace through increased national dialogue by enhancing frameworks and forums for civilian-military consultation such as the regional and prefectural coordinating offices and religious institutions. - Strengthen capacities of the Constitutional Court and Court of Accounts as independent jurisdictions to enhance transparency of voting results and public spending. - Implement sanctions to punish offenses committed during the election period. - Social cohesion objective: - Build democracy, ensure peace, and strengthen civic and political participation by educating citizens and political activists about their rights and obligations before, during, and after the transition period. ### Promoting human rights - Rationale: - Human rights are universal and inalienable; respect and protection of human rights are the basis of social peace and a condition for ensuring development of society as a whole. - Events between 2006 and 2010 substantially compromised development, making promotion and protection of fundamental human rights central for governance. - Measures: - Develop a program to strengthen capacities of the legal system through the creation of an office on human rights. - Implement programs for young men and women to introduce the principles of human rights. - Introduce courses on the principles of human rights, conflict management, and consolidation of the peace in school curricula. - Ensure equality of the sexes before the law, particularly regarding property rights and working conditions. - Improve prison conditions for all detainees, particularly women and minors. - Enforce procedures for summons, police custody, and detention. - Implement the International Convention on Human Rights. ### Fighting corruption and impunity - Problem statement and past actions: - Corruption and similar practices are obstacles to economic development and poverty reduction. - Studies indicate economic agents pay a total of GNF 500 billion per year in bribes and spend considerable time understanding constantly changing tax and customs administration rules. - Audits of public finances in the past four years resulted in recoveries. In 2007, 13 purchase contracts worth over GNF 100 million were audited and the results were published in 2008. - An interministerial committee recovered GNF 138,782,271,394 for the Treasury, taxes, and cooperation account. - Training sessions were conducted for government audit personnel. - Recommended pillars of intervention: - Strengthen the institutional framework of the National Governance and Anti-Corruption Agency (ANBGLC) through adoption of an anticorruption law transposing UN and African Union anti-corruption conventions into national law. - Prepare the proposed framework law on the national good governance and anticorruption program. - Conduct a survey to determine the level of corruption in Guinea. - Improve transparency in management of natural resources in the context of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, the Kimberly process and the Rio Convention by strengthening partnership among administration, private institutions, civil society, rule population, and decentralized administrations. - Strengthen capacities of the ANBGLC complaints bureau and implement decentralized mechanisms to receive public complaints of corruption and similar practices. - Continue establishment of regional governance and anticorruption offices to expand partnership with civil society in citizen control of local resources and fighting corruption at the local and regional level. - Organize citizen awareness and mobilization campaigns against corruption through outreach on anticorruption conventions, laws, and regulations, including content of the central government budget and rules and procedures governing the award of public contracts. - Continue project to improve the public contracting framework. - Continue audits of all central and decentralized agencies. - Outreach concerning the African Peer Review Mechanism with a view toward Guinea’s accession to this mechanism of good governance in the very near future. - Note: - Audit of public contracts is identified as a trigger for the HIPC completion point. ### Improving administrative governance - Civil service reform measures: - Increase transparency in recruiting, employment, compensation, incentives, and retirement; as provided in the labor code reform, control staff through biometric identification of civil servants and contractual employees. - Strengthen institutional mechanisms of social security (national social security agency, pension fund, minimum starting salary and guaranteed minimum salary). - Strengthen capacities of social stakeholders (unions and institutions established to resolve workplace conflicts). - Establish a labor tribunal to protect workers’ rights. - Define an institutional framework for utilization of information and communication technologies in public administration to promote good governance. ### Improving local governance - Decentralization objectives: - Transfer authority, responsibility, and resources from the center to the periphery to deepen the democratic process and promote participatory local development and transparency in local affairs management. - Measures to implement: - Continued preparation of the National Policy Letter on Decentralization. - Drafting and promulgation of orders implementing the framework law on local governments (CCL). - Continued outreach on the CCL to promote appropriation by all local stakeholders and organizations and the populations represented. - Strengthen organizational framework of local governments and renewal of the terms of local authorities (commune, local development community), taking account of their level of education. - Strengthen local executives’ capacities in preparing and executing local budgets, allocating resources, awarding contracts, and verifying services rendered. - Strengthen local elected officials’ capacities in human, material, and financial resources management and security management. - Promote participatory development by expanding local development plans and annual investment plans to all local and regional administrations. - Improve management of vital statistics registries. ### Promoting gender equality - Strategies: - Strengthen laws protecting women and vulnerable persons. - Increase women’s autonomy through improved access to microcredit and domestic and foreign markets through establishment and implementation of the National Fund to Support Women’s Economic Activities. - Develop microfinance to mobilize savings and development for Financial Services Associations in the prefectures and sub-prefectures. - Ensure equal access and full participation for women and youths in power structures and decision-making bodies. - Promote measures for women and youths to prevent and protect against HIV-AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis through screening measures and techniques, provision of antiretroviral drugs, and continuation of the outreach campaign on distribution and use of insecticide-treated mosquito nets. - Implement measure to provide cesarean sections free of charge. - Implement microfinance institutions in the prefectures and sub-prefectures to create income-producing activities for women and young girls. - Enact and enforce Law L/010/AN 2000 of 10 July promoting reproductive health and prohibiting female genital mutilation. ### Improving economic governance and strengthening management capacities - Recommended actions: - Quarterly audit of public contracts valued at over GNF 100 million. - Strengthen capacities for design, planning, and strategic analysis. - Strengthen capacities to produce statistical information for the nation, the ministerial departments, and decentralized administrations through implementation of the 2009-2013 action plan under the National Statistics Development Strategy. - Improve capacities for programming, managing, and monitoring public finances. - Continue efforts to link the Guinean Economy Simulation Model (MSEGUI) to the Macroeconomic Simulator for Poverty Analysis (PAMS). ### Box 2: Integrated MSEGUI/PAMS tool (summary) - The current version of the Guinean Economy Simulation Model (MSEGUI) is an important step in adapting instruments of macroeconomic analysis. - For simulation, the National Directorate of Planning (DNP) combined the Macroeconomic Simulator for Poverty Analysis (PAMS) with the MSEGUI to account for the impact of development policy decisions on poverty. - The source and application of funds table (TRE) was integrated into the model and new modules were created to determine property profile and income distribution of different socioeconomic groups. - A data calibration was performed to migrate data from the MSEGUI to the new version without TRE. - The model is not yet fully operational. ### Budget and tax policy improvements (high-level measures) - Strict adherence to centralized cash management through closing of special accounts and transfer of credit balances to the main Treasury account. - Cash-based budget execution accompanied by a monthly cash management plan supervised by the Treasury Committee. - Increase ministries’ responsibilities in managing budgets allocated to them via respect for payment authorization authority. - Reinstatement of the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEFs) unit and expansion of such units to all departments. - Drafting and execution of employment contracts for senior positions in revenue-collecting agencies (customs, tax administrations). - Control of all imports of merchandise. - Elimination of all ad hoc exemptions and intensified control of legally established exemptions. - Improved collection of administrative revenue, particularly revenue associated with mobile telephone service. - Compliance with established procedures for award of public contracts. ### Box 3: National Statistics Development Strategy (SNDS) (summary) - Adopted in 2008, SNDS provides an action plan covering 2009-2013 based on these pillars: - improvement of the institutional and regulatory framework for the national statistics system; - improved coverage and quality of statistics produced; - strengthening of the personnel, material, and financial resources of the national statistics system; - improved dissemination and archiving of data through use of new information and communication technologies; - mobilization of US$34.3 million from the technical and financial partners for implementation of the SNDS, which will cost a total of US$44.2 million. ### Box 4: Matrix of government financial management reforms (summary of urgent actions) - Adopt an appropriate legal framework for government finances that incorporates reforms being enacted in the subregion: - Framework law on government finance - Budget nomenclature - General public accounting regulations - Central government chart of accounts - Prepare reliable accounting trial balances and make up for delays in approval of budget review laws (lois de règlement). - Audit public contracts. - Note: This is a trigger for the HIPC completion point. - Work toward implementation of Single Treasury Account. - Update payroll and civil service files. - Develop a roadmap to supplement the assessment and ensure consistency between numerous initiatives under way. - Clear the Treasury liability vis-à-vis the BCRG and domestic arrears. ### Table 6: USAID and EU portfolio (selected figures) - Source: USAID and European Commission. - 1 Euro = US$1.3834 - Select project/program budgets (US$ thousands) for 2010 and 2011 (as presented): - Faisons Ensemble project: 4,042 (2010), 2,500 (2011) — USAID - Support for transition process (Elections): 2,541 (2010), 1,077 (2011) — USAID - Civil Society program: 2,056 (2010), 1,700 (2011) — USAID - Institutional support for decentralization: 2,000 (2010), - (2011) — USAID - Institutional Support for Governance Project (PAIG) (government finance - justice): - (2010), 6,000 (2011) — EU - Clearing arrears with BEI in connection with HIPC initiative: - (2010), 7,200 (2011) — EU - FED program supporting national payment authority functions / technical cooperation facility: - (2010), 6 000 (2011) — EU - ECHO reserve for humanitarian emergencies: - (2010), 4,050 (2011) — EU - Supplementary Program Supporting Elections (PACE): 4,950 (2010), - (2011) — EU - Electoral process support program – supplement for legislative / local elections / i5 000 (2010), - (2011) — EU - Support for prsp process, strengthening statistics, general population and housing-: - (2010), 5 000 (2011) — EU - Support for Security Sector Reform (RSS): - (2010), 4 900 (2011) — EU - Legal system support program / RSS: - (2010), 40 000 (2011) — EU - Supplemental program to support government financial management reform: - (2010), 20 000 (2011) — EU - Total (as presented): 11 950 33150 *Excerpt from IMF staff report chapter: 2. ensuring that the judiciary oversight body (Conseil supérieur de la magistrature) and the Disciplinary Board are fully operational* ### Chapter 2. Accelerating growth and expanding job and ### Chapter 2. Accelerating growth and expanding job and income opportunities for all ### Natural-resource endowments and growth potential - Guinea is described as having abundant and varied resources: "gold, diamonds, bauxite, iron, uranium", forest resources, fishing resources, and hydraulic resources (several rivers, including the Niger and Senegal rivers, have their source in Guinea). - Climate and agro-ecology: - Tropical and semi-humid or Sudano-Guinean climate with two distinct seasons: a dry season of "4 to 7 months" and a rainy season of "5 to 8 months". - Average rainfall "from 1,200 to 4,200 mm per year". - Land and agricultural potential: - Arable land estimated at "6.2 million hectares, or 25 percent of the national territory". - Of those 6.2 million hectares, "less than 2,000,000 hectares is actually exploited each year", the rest lies fallow. - Hydro-agricultural potential estimated at "180,000 hectares", divided into "157,000 hectares of planes" and "23,000 hectares of low-lying river basins". - Agriculture employs "over 80 percent of the rural population", and "80 percent of growers cultivate rice". - Joint CILSS-FAO-GG assessment for 2010/2011: gross rice production could reach "1,604,348 tons per rice paddy (an increase of 7 percent relative to 2009) or roughly 1,123,044 tons of brown rice" (note: brown rice inferred using a 30 percent deduction per rice paddy). - Fisheries and aquaculture potential: - Exploited fishing potential estimated "between 150,000 and 250,000 tons of fish per year" including pelagic, demersal, cephalopod species and shrimp. - Fish products contribute "in the range of 40 percent of animal protein requirements". - Annual individual consumption of fish increased from "13 kg prior to 2003" to "17 kg in 2010". - Regional aquaculture opportunities: Forested Guinea (aquaculture in rice fields); Lower Guinea (shrimp farming, oyster culture, sea cage aquaculture, inland aquaculture); Upper Guinea (ponds and reservoirs); Mid-Guinea (floodplains and hydroelectric dams). - Mining and investment: - Guinea attracts major multinationals (examples cited: "Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Alcan, Alcoa"). - FDI flows increased from "US$30 million in 2002" to "US$111 million in 2007", a "270 percent increase in five years". - Planned megaprojects (alumina and aluminum refinery projects) for the next 10 years estimated at "over US$24 billion". ### Growth, poverty link, and diversification strategy - Key analytical points: - Economic growth does not automatically reduce poverty; the effect depends on sector composition of growth. - Guinea's poor population are concentrated in rural areas dependent on "agriculture, livestock raising, and fishing"; growth in these sectors is most likely to rapidly reduce poverty. - A diversified economy supported by multiple productive sectors provides more reliable long-term improvement in living conditions for the poor. - The mining sector should increase its value added through processing of raw materials. - The rural sector can contribute added value via establishment of competitive processing industries. - Strategic summary: - Growth driven by the rural sector and financed by revenue from the mining sector is presented as the route to reduce poverty through: - Establishment of agrifood industries; - Increased value added in the mining sector; - Greater participation in regional and international trade. - The government would thereby generate taxes and duties enabling provision of good quality basic social services. ### Infrastructure as a growth lever - Productive, basic economic infrastructures are characterized as a "sine qua non". - Priority infrastructure actions include construction of hydroelectric dams to provide water and electricity and interconnection of principal cities with production areas. ### Macroeconomic objectives (II.2.1) - Aggregate targets: - Achieve annual growth in production of "4 percent in 2011" and "5.5 percent in 2012". - Increase per capita GDP by "0.7 percent in 2011" and "2.2 percent in 2012". - Reduce year-on-year inflation to "17.1 percent in 2011" and "5.3 percent in 2012". - Increase gross international reserves to the equivalent of "1.7 months of imports of goods and services for the period 2011-2012" compared to "1.4 months" and "1.9 months" in 2009 and 2010 respectively. - Total revenue (excluding grants) targeted to increase to "18.0 percent of GDP in 2011" and "19.3 percent of GDP in 2012". - Reduce the budget deficit (commitment basis, excluding grants) to "-5.1 percent of GDP in 2011" and "-2.6 percent in 2012". - Total expenditures as a proportion of GDP targeted at "16.8 percent in 2011" and "16.1 percent in 2012". - Foreign debt service targeted to be reduced to "57.7 percent of GDP in 2011" and "51.3 percent of GDP in 2012". - Five planned measures to achieve objectives: - (i) consolidation of the macroeconomic framework; - (ii) implementation of an effective, prudent monetary policy accompanied by strengthening of the financial system; - (iii) improvement of budget and tax policies; - (iv) effective debt management; - (v) incorporation of the regional dimension of economic and financial integration. ### Fiscal consolidation and budget policy measures - Immediate challenge: restore macroeconomic and budget stability by controlling the budget deficit and reducing inflation. - 2011 budget aims to drastically reduce excessive spending and avoid supplemental bank financing. - Initial 2011 budget estimates implied financing requirements "of close to 13 percent of GDP"; corrective measures representing "4.1 percent of GDP" are expected to reduce the budget balance from "about -11.7 percent of GDP in 2010" to "-5.1 percent in 2011" and "-2.6 percent in 2012". - Measures listed (verbatim where numeric or specific): - increasing revenue by about "GNF 1,000 billion, or 3 percent of GDP"; - increasing receipts by "GNF 50 billion" through tax revenue, including collections for prior years; - intensified efforts by revenue-collecting authorities; - cutting back the excessive public spending of recent years; - reducing the rapid growth of the public sector wage bill; - meeting the population’s most urgent needs; - implementing the corrective measures required by means of a supplementary budget law developed in cooperation with the IMF; - executing expenditures on a cash basis throughout fiscal year 2011; - reforming the civil service; - improving the management of finances; - re-starting implementation of the expanded public finance reforms based on the 2008 Public Finance Reform Strategy; - reducing the excessive pressure of the money supply on the inflation and exchange rates; - stepping up surveillance of commercial banks; - improving the management of public enterprises; and - adopting a new mining code and model mining contract. ### Monetary policy and financial sector measures - Core objective: reduce pressure from excessive money supply growth observed from 2009 to 2010, primarily caused by excessive use of central bank (BCRG) advances to finance the budget. - Policies to be supported by sterilization of excess liquidity and encouraging private savings via positive real interest rates. - Specific BCRG measures: - raise commercial bank reserve requirements from "9.5 percent to 17.5 percent"; - place nonnegotiable Treasury bills with banks recording especially high levels of liquidity, in close cooperation with the Ministry of Economy and Finance; - convert a portion of the existing stock of government advances to Treasury bills; - prohibit advances to the government; - adjust the BCRG policy rate according to the results of Treasury bill auctions; - refrain from re-injecting the proceeds of sales of farm products into the economy to further absorb liquidity; - monthly publication of a summary bulletin and brief analysis of the monetary outlook in the local press; and - institute periodic meetings with the professional bankers association at least once a month to discuss the monetary outlook. - Additional BCRG actions: - reinstate the interbank market for national currency to optimize liquidity allocation and enable the BCRG to act as lender of last resort. - Banking system strengthening: - improve the risk unit and implement a payment risk management unit; - increase international reserves; - improve the operation of the foreign exchange market; - limit use of Treasury bills to finance the budget deficit to a maximum of "5 percent of average tax revenue for the previous three years" and to a term of no more than "92 days", as provided by the BCRG charter; - strengthen existing financial intermediation institutions and open additional branches outside the capital; - establish new financial intermediation institutions to provide increased density and diversification of financial services. ### Debt management and resource mobilization - External debt burden objective: reduce outstanding balance as a percentage of GDP from "66.6 percent in 2009" to "64.8 percent in 2011" and "57.0 percent in 2012". - Planned measures: - formulate a debt policy based on at least "35 percent grants"; - conversion of debt that promotes investment in priority sectors; - strengthen negotiating capacities, including techniques for redemption and conversion of debt on a case-by-case basis; - create a flexible, dynamic interministerial structure for consultation, coordination, and development of debt management strategies. - Potential additional financing: - Signature of the 10th European Development Fund estimated to mobilize "€205.8 billion", including "€189.6 billion from envelope A" for development projects and programs, and "€16.2 billion from envelope B" for budgetary assistance. - Example potential grant: estimated "€70 million in nonreimbursable subsidies to purchase drugs to control pandemics during the period 2007-2011" through a project financed by funds from a tax on airline tickets the government has yet to institute. ### Regional integration - Policies will involve more rigorous macroeconomic and financial management and improved reporting and monitoring of member countries’ economic and financial performance. - Government commits to timely payment of Guinea’s contributions to regional and sub-regional cooperative organizations. ### Principal macroeconomic and poverty indicators (excerpted table) - 1. Poverty - Poverty rate: "58.0" (2010), "57.0" (2011), "56.0" (2012), "54.0" (2013) - Depth of poverty: "18.2" (2010), "18" (2011), "17.9" (2012), "17.8" (2013) - Severity of poverty: "8.5" (2010), "8.4" (2011), "8.3" (2012), "8.3" (2013) - 2. Growth - Real GDP growth: "1.9" (2010), "4.0" (2011), "5.5" (2012), "5.8" (2013) - Per capita GDP growth: "-1.3" (2010), "0.7" (2011), "2.2" (2012), "2.5" (2013) - 3. Inflation and currency - Consumer price index (year on year): "20.8" (2010), "17.1" (2011), "5.3" (2012), "4.8" (2013) - Consumer price index (annual average): "15.5" (2010), "19" (2011), "10.8" (2012), "4.5" (2013) - Gross foreign assets in months of imports of goods and services: "1.90" (2010), "2.5" (2011), "2.9" (2012), "3.0" (2013) - 4. Investment - Total investment rate: "18.0" (2010), "16.9" (2011), "19.4" (2012), "19.3" (2013) - Public investment rate: "6.4" (2010), "4.6" (2011), "4.3" (2012), "4.6" (2013) - Private investment rate: "11.6" (2010), "12.3" (2011), "15.2" (2012), "14.7" (2013) - 5. Central government budget - Current revenue as % of GDP: "16.4" (2010), "18.0" (2011), "19.3" (2012), "20.2" (2013) - Current expenditure as % of GDP: "19.3" (2010), "16.8" (2011), "16.0" (2012), "14.9" (2013) - Capital expenditure as % of GDP: "8.7" (2010), "6.3" (2011), "5.9" (2012), "6.3" (2013) - Budget savings as % of GDP: "- 2.9" (2010), "1.2" (2011), "3.3" (2012), "5.3" (2013) - Primary balance as % of GDP: "- 8.6" (2010), "-1.1" (2011), "1.0" (2012), "2.3" (2013) - Balance excl. grants, commitment basis as % of GDP: "- 11.7" (2010), "- 5.1" (2011), "- 2.6" (2012), "- 1.1" (2013) - 6. Debt - External public debt service (US$ millions): "174.7" (2010), "213.4" (2011), "224.1" (2012), "235.3" (2013) - Debt service as % of exports of goods and services: "11.8" (2010), "12.7" (2011), "11.3" (2012), "10.4" (2013) - Outstanding debt (US$ millions): "3,020.6" (2010), "2,919.8" (2011), "2,794.3" (2012), "2,668.7" (2013) - Outstanding debt as % of GDP: "67.0" (2010), "64.8" (2011), "57.0" (2012), "50.2" (2013) ### Assumptions underpinning 2011 growth forecast - A return to constitutional order and restoration of development partners’ trust; - Continued reform of public finances; - Implementation of the National Agricultural Investment Program; - Improvement of Guinea’s business climate and attractiveness to investors; - A gradual increase in the price of mining products. ### Sector objectives — Agriculture (II.2.2.1) - Principal objectives: - ensure food security; - develop food crops and export crops; - create jobs and income for populations, particularly those living in rural areas. - Sector growth targets: - achieve a growth rate of "4.1 percent in 2011" and "5.7 percent in 2012", with a stable GDP contribution of "14.2 percent in 2011 and 2012". - Specific objectives: - (i) increase the production and productivity of family-owned operations; - (ii) promote agricultural entrepreneurship by stimulating private initiative; - (iii) improve access to markets for agricultural products; - (iv) ensure sustainable utilization of natural resources and the environment. - Priority measures and support actions: - develop rice cultivation to meet the population’s growing needs; - diversify agriculture through development of other food crops; - adopt an integrated approach to managing natural resources; - strengthen institutional capacities and program coordination; - strengthen capacities of agronomy research centers; - strengthen capacities of chambers of agriculture and commerce. - Strategic emphasis: - agricultural development strategy primarily based on expanding irrigated areas to reduce dependence on rain-fed farming and increasing production through increased use of agricultural inputs to significantly increase productivity. - crosscutting support measures include: (i) improving the legal and regulatory environment; (ii) increasing productivity by improving soil fertility; (iii) improving access to factors and means of production (land, inputs, technologies, training, equipment, and information); (iv) developing a viable system of financing for producers in different agricultural segments. *Source: Chapter 2. Accelerating growth and expanding job and income opportunities for all (excerpt).* ### Box 5: Promoting food security ### Box 5: Promoting food security ### Objectives and overarching strategy - Increase the availability and stability of the food supply by increasing crop, animal, and fishery production and their respective added values. - Ensure greater economic and physical access to food for households by reducing poverty in Guinea, particularly in the most vulnerable areas. - Effectively reduce malnutrition through measures that will improve the nutritional situation of the most vulnerable groups in the short term. - Implement appropriate lines of defense to protect populations from natural and other disasters. - Implement an institutional framework for food security that actively involves all stakeholders and sectors concerned in analysis and decision making. - Establish an information system on the food and nutritional situation of Guinea’s populations as an essential priority pillar of the strategy. - Strengthen capacities of professionals and professional organizations across agricultural, animal, forest, and fishery segments. - Greater involvement of women in production and resource management processes. ### Stabilizing supply and improving production systems - Stabilize the food supply by: - leveraging the agricultural potential of lands, waters, livestock, and forests; - improving performance of production systems: access to inputs, distribution of technology packages, etc.; - using appropriate conservation and processing technologies; - facilitating access to credit; - sustainably managing natural resources. - Improve management of and access to resources that support food security by: - increasing stability of supply of agricultural, animal, and fishery productions to reduce post-production losses and facilitate access to food products (post-production technologies, market operations, price liberalization, elimination of unjustified taxes); - strengthening services supporting rural areas (research, outreach, policy, control, etc.) to address weaknesses in human, financial, and material resources; - increasing competitiveness of Guinea’s agricultural products in regional and international markets; - developing mechanisms to support activities for women in food security; - developing strategies to reduce malnutrition for children under age 5, pregnant and breast-feeding women; - developing consistent food assistance strategies for emergency situations, areas of extreme poverty, and vulnerable groups (including specific funds to support youth and women in developing cash crops, livestock production, trade and artisanal activities during dry seasons); - developing strategies to improve economic and physical access to food products; - developing region-specific strategies accounting for natural-region constraints. ### Increasing access and livelihoods - Increase access to food through: - improved integration of livestock grazing and food security programs; - development of income-generating activities. - Facilitate increased access to microcredit and inputs, organization and training of producers, and development of income-generating activities. ### Livestock segment (objectives, targets, and required actions) - Objective: significantly increase population and national production of meat, milk, and eggs. - Sector added-value growth targets: - close to 3.9 percent in 2011; - 5.6 percent in 2012; - compared to 5.5 percent in 2010. - Measures required to achieve targeted growth: - increased access to microcredit and inputs; - sedation/organization of livestock farmers (organization, training, animal health, outreach, planning); - intensified livestock breeding; - breeding of livestock with shorter gestation periods; - effective integration of agriculture and livestock breeding; - development of the pasture code; - close cooperation with neighboring countries to control epizootic disease. - Two strategic pillars: - crosscutting strategic pillar (program approach) supporting traditional livestock breeding systems with government actions and participation of livestock breeder groups; - vertical strategic pillar (segment approach) supporting improved cattle breeding system or semi-intensive periurban system. ### Fishery and aquaculture sector (objectives, targets, and strategic pillars) - Importance: one of the principal sources of animal protein and revenue mobilization. - Sector growth targets: - increase contribution to GDP by growing to 4.5 percent in 2011; - 4.8 percent in 2012. - Three strategic pillars from the policy letter on fisheries and aquaculture: - strengthening sector institutional and professional capacities; - sustainable management of fishery resources through improved research and surveillance; - developing/promoting fishery and aquaculture products. - Specific emergency-program actions (Ministry of Fisheries and Aquaculture 2008-2011) include: - improving production services through implementation of a national policy; - developing infrastructures for downloading, storing, processing, packaging, and marketing fishery products; - managing fishery capacities and reducing illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing through fishery management plans and anti-illegal-fishing efforts; - improving upstream and post-capture services to increase competitiveness: making landing facilities viable, creating commercial fishing enterprises on par with international standards, bringing means of production up to standards, establishing sensory analysis and microbiology labs; - reinstating village aquaculture development support program in Forested Guinea, pond and basin development program in Upper Guinea, and artisanal fishery program in Maritime Guinea; - combating illegal fishing by strengthening operational capacities of the National Fishery Surveillance Center; - improving knowledge of resources by increasing operational capacities of the Boussoura National Fishery Halieutic Sciences Center; - restoring and preserving aquatic (maritime and inland) ecosystems. ### PNIASA (National Agricultural Investment and Food Security Program) — cost and financing plan (USD millions) - Program totals and mobilization needs (columns: 2011/13, 2014/15, Total, Mobilisé, Recherché): - 1. Sustainable development of rice cultivation: 282; 492; 774; 319; 455 - 1.1 Promoting irrigation and water management: 150; 250; 400; 250; 150 - 1.2 Agricultural inputs and equipment: 75; 125; 200; 15; 185 - 1.3 Research, technology transfer, and consulting services: 5; 15; 20; 2.5; 18 - 1.4 Developing capacities to access agricultural markets: 50; 100; 150; 50; 100 - 1.5 Program coordination: 1.5; 1.5; 3; 1; 2 - 2. Food security through diversification: 156; 315; 471; 15; 457 - 2.1 Cultivation of non-rice crops: 126; 252; 378; 8; 371 - 2.2 Animal segments: 23; 52; 75; 1; 75 - 2.3 Fishing and aquaculture: 2; 3; 5; 2; 4 - 2.4 Promoting the right to food, managing crises, and nutrition: 5; 8; 13; 5; 8 - 3. Promoting agricultural exports and agribusiness: 72; 656; 728; 262; 466 - 3.1 Improving performance of agroindustry and export segments: 13; 19; 32; 3; 29 - 3.2 Developing irrigation, processing, and marketing infrastructure: 34; 52; 86; 3; 83 - 3.3 Improving the business climate to promote exports and develop agribusiness: 13; 19; 32; 1; 31 - 3.4 Fishing and aquaculture: 8; 562; 570; 253; 317 - 3.5 Marketing information system: 2; 2; 4; 1; 3 - 3.6 Animal segments: 2; 2; 4; 1; 3 - 4. Integrated management of renewable natural resources: 52; 75; 127; 11; 116 - 4.1 Support in managing forest and fauna ecosystems, and cross-border ecosystems: 7; 10; 17; 3; 14 - 4.2 Fishing and aquaculture, conservation and surveillance of fisheries: 38; 56; 94; 3; 91 - 4.3 Managing pasture spaces and agriculture-livestock integration: 1; 1; 2; 1; 1 - 4.4 Managing land tenure: 1; 1; 2; 1; 1 - 4.5 Improving soil fertility: 1; 1; 2; 1; 1 - 4.6 Adapting to climate change: 2; 3; 5; 2; 3 - 4.7 Managing animal genetic resources: 2; 3; 5; 1; 4 - 5. Institutional strengthening and coordination: 63; 55; 118; 8; 110 - 5.1 Improving the quality of public services: 50; 40; 90; 3; 2 - 5.2 Strengthening stakeholder capacities: 10; 10; 20; 3; 2 - 5.3 Fishing and aquaculture: 2; 3; 5; 1; 1 - 5.4 Program coordination: 1; 2; 3; 1; 0 ### Mining sector notes (contextual linkage to national revenues and development) - Sector share of GDP: - 15.8 percent in 2008; - 14.7 percent in 2009; - 14.5 percent in 2010; - 14.2 percent in 2011; - expected to recover to 14.5 percent in 2012. - Expected mining sector growth rates: - 1.8 percent in 2011; - 4.6 percent in 2012. - Policy objectives: maximize mining receipts, increase benefits of mining operations to citizens through job- and income-creating activities, improve basic services via sector contributions to central government and local authority budgets, reduce unemployment (especially for young graduates), and strengthen Guinea's foreign-currency liquidity position. - Implementation measures include execution of megaprojects (examples listed), facilitation of infrastructure (trans-Guinea railroad, deepwater mining port), and two pillars: intensification of mining activity and better leveraging of mining products. - Legal and fiscal reforms and transparency: - Mining code and bauxite tax system (dating from 1995) are being revised. - Guinea acceded to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) in April 2005. - A review financed by the African Development Bank in the amount of €300,000 was selected for the mining code review process. - The review is expected to significantly increase the local development tax from 0.4 percent of revenues to 1 percent. - Estimated cost to develop a model mining contract: US$250,000. - The Center for Mining Promotion and Development maintains a mining rights register; estimated cost to maintain: US$350,000. - Note: taxes of US$10/KM2 are indicated as an important source of revenue for central and local governments. *Source: _cr1261 - Box 5: Promoting food security* ### Box 6: Principal private-sector mining projects ### Box 6: Principal private-sector mining projects ### Principal private-sector mining projects (projects, partners, costs, capacities) - Global Alumina project with partners BHP-Billiton, Dubal and Mudabala, for production of 10 million tons of bauxite and 4 million tons of alumina at Sangaredi for a cost of US$4.5 billion - Dian-Dian project with partner Rusal, for production of 13.4 million tons of bauxite and 2.8 million tons of alumina for a cost of US$4 billion - Alumina plant construction project at Kamsar with partners Alcoa and Rio Tinto/Alcan, for initial production of 1.5 million tons of alumina, with possible expansion to 3 million tons using bauxite produced by CBG; for a cost of US$1 billion - Dabola /Tougué project in partnership with Iran, for production of 10 million tons of bauxite and 1 million tons of bauxite for a cost of US$4 billion - Boffa alumina plant project with partner BHP-Billiton - Gaoual bauxite project with partner Alliance Mining Corporation - Four iron extraction projects being developed at Simandou with Rio-Tinto, at Mont Nimba with BHP-Billiton, at Kalia, Faranah with the Australian company Belle Zone, and at Zogota, Nzérékoré with BSGR ### International development support (selected grants/facilities) - Program consolidating support to the National Confederation of Rural Organizations (PACNOP), €1,600,000 - Thematic facility for non-state actors and local authorities, €1,425,000 - European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights, €100,000 ### Direct jobs created by mining projects (Table 9 — Source: National Directorate of Multiyear Programming) - Kamsar alumina plant project (PUAK) - Construction phase: 4,000 – 5,000 - Operation phase: 1,000 – 1,200 - Sangaredi alumina plant project (PUAS) - Construction phase: 7,000 – 10,000 - Operation phase: 1,200 – 1,500 - Dian Dian combined project - Construction phase: 5,000 – 10,000 - Operation phase: 2,000 – 3,000 - Dabola Tougué bauxite project (SBDT) - Construction phase: 1,500 - Operation phase: 700 – 800 - SIMFER Rio-Tinto - Construction phase: 10,000 – 15,000 - Operation phase: 7,500 - TransGuinéen - Construction phase: 25,000 - Operation phase: 2,000 – 3,000 - SIMFER BHP-Billiton - Construction phase: 7,000 - Operation phase: 3,000 ### Industrial development policy: objectives and projected manufacturing growth - Objectives: - the creation of an industrial fabric that will add value to our natural resources through local processing - the creation of an agrifood industry enabling us to leverage our agripastoral products - integration in international and subregional trade - the creation of an attractive climate for high-labor-intensive industries in order to take advantage of industrial relocations - Expected outcomes: - creation of sustainable jobs and income for graduates and rural population groups - requirement for better organized private sector and framework, improved business climate, and basic infrastructures (roads, water and electricity, transportation, etc.) - Manufacturing sector value added growth targets: - from 1.2 percent in 2010 to 4.4 percent in 2011 and 5.1 percent in 2012 - Government commitments to achieve growth: - consolidating the business climate - increasing support to the private sector - facilitating access to credit - improving the system of institutional support by finalizing and implementing the Policy Letter on Private-Sector Promotion ### Trade development policy: recent performance and near-term projections - 2009 trade growth: 0.8 percent - Projected trade sector growth: - 1.0 percent in 2010 - 3.8 percent in 2011 - 4.9 percent in 2012 - Trade policy components under the Enhanced Integrated Framework: - modernizing and establishing qualifications for the sales profession - strengthening supply chain capacities while diversifying exports, giving priority to processed, high-value-added products - increasing foreign currency revenue resulting from exports and repatriation of products - monitoring foreign trade statistics - improving Guinea's brand image in the international arena by enhancing commercial diplomacy - Expected GDP share for trade sector: ranging from 17 percent to 20-25 percent in the next three years ### Tourism and artisanal sector policy: objectives and interventions - Sector objectives: - help speed the pace of economic growth - promote jobs and wide distribution of income - contribute to the mobilization of foreign currency - Interventions: - increasing the sector's productivity and competitiveness - creating productive, stable jobs - enhancing technical skills and management while contributing to the development of the industrial base - implementing the Policy Letter on Artisanal Sector Development - implementing projects to support the artisanal sector, such as those included in the Framework Program to Support Private Sector Development ### Promoting private sector and employment: objectives and measures - Objective: promote the creation of decent jobs and significant income for all, particularly for the poor - Focus areas: - attracting private local investment and foreign direct investment in the mining sector and other high-value-added sectors - supporting local entrepreneurship, microenterprises, and small and medium-size businesses - decentralizing key agencies supporting enterprises and employment for the young - Planned measures: - finalize and implement the Policy Letter on Private-Sector Promotion - improve the investment climate - increase financial and nonfinancial support to the private sector - consolidate viable industrial zones and create industrial free zones - strengthen the managerial capacities of Guinean sponsors - facilitate access to markets through regional integration - Institutional reforms: - review of the investment code (dating from 1995) - implementation of a Private Investment Promotion Agency (replacing the Office of Private Investment Promotion) with expanded mission to: - create a one-stop window to facilitate and improve monitoring of formalities for creating, amending, and dissolving companies and enterprises - ensure consistency between the SME/SMI investment code and sector codes - harmonize with other ECOWAS agencies ### Cost of SME, trade, and artisanal sector projects, 2010-2012 (Table 10, GNF millions) - Projects and annual allocations (2010, 2011, 2012) and totals: - Conakry/Interior industrial zones: 5,900 (2010), 3,400 (2011), - (2012), Total 10,300 — Donor: BND - Metrology lab equipment: - (2010), - (2011), - (2012), Total 1,000 — Donor: BND - National multifunctional platform development project: 1,248 (2010), - (2011), - (2012), Total 2,383 — Donor: UNDP - Matoto Laboratory: 121 (2010), - (2011), - (2012), Total 621 — Donor: BND - Studies and Construction of Artisanal Villages: - (2010), - (2011), - (2012), Total 500 — Donor: BND - Fishing products diversification & marketing: 750 (2010), 145,657 (2011), 253,361 (2012), Total 401,053 - Potato segment development in A.O: 1,426 (2010), 1,290 (2011), 1,015 (2012), Total 5,096 — Donor: CFC - Pilot center: - (2010), - (2011), - (2012), Total 1,000 — Donor: BND - TOTAL (annual and cumulative): 9,445 (2010), 150,347 (2011), 254,376 (2012), Total 421,953 — Source: National Directorate of Multiyear Programming - Note: The GNF 421,953 total for 2010-2012 is mainly financed by the national development budget ### Promoting sustainable development: strategy and interventions - Objective: integrate principles of sustainable development in international policies and programs; reverse depletion of environmental resources and loss of biodiversity; improve living conditions without mortgaging productive base for future generations - Strategy for water resources and species protection: - expanding the proportion of protected areas - involving population groups in conservation of ecosystems and resources - increasing protections to prevent water sources and riverbeds from drying out - strengthening protections for endangered species - Interventions: - rational, sustainable management focused on natural resources and protection of the environment and soils - control of desertification and brush fires - protected forests and areas; catchment areas, marine ecosystems, coasts, fisheries, and water resources - consideration of environmental impact studies in implementing infrastructure projects and programs ### USAID and EU portfolio (Table 11, US$ thousands) - Local agricultural TA program: 2,970 (2010), 2,700 (2011) — Donor: USAID - Microenterprise programs: 1,853 (2010), 1,100 (2011) — Donor: USAID - Biodiversity program: 1,056 (2010), 1,200 (2011) — Donor: USAID - Forest region rehabilitation and development program: 2,691 (2010), - (2011) — Donor: EU - Food security facility: 7,130 (2010), - (2011) — Donor: EU - Total: 15 5,000 ### Development of basic infrastructure — energy and water (policy targets and project lists) - Energy sector growth targets: - 1.7 percent in 2010 - 6.2 percent in 2011 - 7.4 percent in 2012 - Subsector objectives: - improve electricity supply in Conakry and outlying cities - improve efficiency of the electricity sector - National electricity interventions: - Revision of the petroleum code and its implementing provisions - Rehabilitation and extension of the MT/LT distribution grid to Conakry, Nzérékoré, Kankan, Faranah, and Labé - Improvement to the efficiency of the electricity sector in Conakry, with efforts to combat fraud - Implementation of a micro-power plant program - Urban water supply aims: - rehabilitate and expand capacities for production, transport, and distribution of drinking water - improve productivity and carry out institutional reforms of the subsector - Additional energy priorities: - exploit hydroelectric potential, promote energy savings, rural electrification, and alternate energy sources - strengthen participation in subregional river organizations and projects (OMVG, NBA, OMVS) - focus on biomass rational use, improved stoves, substitute renewable energy sources (butane), biogas, and solar power - explore hydrocarbons for household use to reduce pressure on biomass ### Costs of energy and water supply projects (Table 12, millions of Guinea francs) - Energy projects (selected items and totals): - OMVG Kaléta/Sambagalou Energy Program: 13,135 (2010), 20,281 (2011), 33,416 (Total) — Donor: OMVG - Multipurpose Fomi Dam Improvement Project (Updating of Study): 15,550 (2010), 16,350 (2011), 228 (2012), Total 32,128 — Donors: NBA,WB/CCE - Decentralized Rural Electrification: 165 (2010), - (2011), - (2012), Total 165 — Donors: IDA/GEF - Electrification of Conakry’s Peripheral Areas: 326 (2010), - (2011), - (2012), Total 326 — Donor: BND - Rehabilitation and Expansion of Conakry Electrical Grid: 37,660 (2010), 54,134 (2011), - (2012), Total 91,794 — Donors: ISDB/AfDB - Electricity Sector Efficiency Improvement Project: 36,505 (2010), - (2011), - (2012), Total 36,505 — Donor: IDA - OMVG Energy Development Project: 72,000 (2010), 43,500 (2011), - (2012), Total 115,500 — Donors: AfDB/IDA - Public Lighting Program: - (2010), 16,598 (2011), 4,409 (2012), Total 21,007 — Donor: BND - Rehabilitation of Regional Grids (Faranah, Kankan, and N'Nzérékoré): 35,348 (2010), 6,691 (2011), - (2012), Total 42,039 — Donor: BIDC - Manéah Power Plant: 4,000 (2010), - , - , Total 4,000 — Donor: China - Capacity Building for National Hydrocarbons Directorate: 365 (2010), - , - , Total 365 — Donor: BND - Subtotal (Energy): 215,488 (2010), 157,554 (2011), 4,637 (2012), Total 377,679 - Water supply projects (selected items and subtotal): - OMVG Optimization and Natural Resource Management, Gambia River: 6,057 (2010), 8,983 (2011), - (2012), Total 15,040 — Donors: ISDB/ADF - Ongoing Investment. Land Deterioration and Niger Watershed Water: 1,587 (2010), 681 (2011), - (2012), Total 2,268 — Donors: IDA/UNDP - Niger HYCOS: 500 (2010), - , - , Total 500 — Donors: AFD/AfDB - Integrated Management Program, Water Resources and Multiple Use, Senegal River: 6,000 (2010), 2,247 (2011), 6,241 (2012), Total 14,488 — Donor: IDA - DREGDE Project of the Niger Basin Authority (NBA): 5,800 (2010), 10,810 (2011), - (2012), Total 16,610 — Donor: IDA - Subtotal (Water Supply): 19,944 (2010), 22,721 (2011), 6,241 (2012), Total 48,906 - GRAND TOTAL (Energy + Water Supply): 235,432 (2010), 180,275 (2011), 10,878 (2012), Total 426,585 *Source: IMF staff summary of the content unit titled "Box 6: Principal private-sector mining projects" from the provided PDF content.* ### 1.4 percent in 2010. ### _cr1261 - 1.4 percent in 2010. ### Transport sector: recent measures, planned projects, and rail ambitions - Government efforts recently made: - Established a fledgling road transport network in the city of Conakry. - Rehabilitated the suburban train by introducing Conakry-Express. - Planned rehabilitation: - Heavy duty rail line between Conakry and Kankan (662 kilometers in length) and then Kankan-Kérouané (under the agreement recently signed with the BSGR firm). - Selected road and bridge project costs (project title — total in millions of Guinea francs; donors/lenders where listed): - Labé – Tougué – Dinguiraye - Siguiri Road — 6,240 — ISDB / BADEA. - Kankan Primary Roads, 20 km — 89,555 — BND. - Rehabilitation of the Kisssidougou – Gueckédou – PK15 - Sérédou Road — 160,000 — EU. - Study on ferry replacement by bridges — 4,254 — BADEA. - Improvement of 4-lane Tombo-Gbessia Road, Lot 1 — 65,660 — AFD / AfDB. - Labé – Seriba – Madina – Gounass Road — 85,000 — BDEA/ISDB/ AfDB/KFAED. - Boké-Quebo Road Works — 192,000 — AfDB. - Improvement of Sonfonia – Kagbélen Express Lanes — 11,000 — BND. - Matoto - Enta – Dabompa T5 South Road — 48,563 — KFAED. - Study and Construction of Kankan - N'zérékoré – Yomou – Liberia Border Road — 278,384 — BADEA pr, APD DAO. - Construction of Kaka, Soumba, Fanyé, and Dandaya bridges — 20,035 — JICA. - Road Network Rehabilitation in Administrative Capitals and cities in the interior — 15,714 — BND. - Rehabilitation of the Mamou – Dabola – Kouroussa Road — 104,800 — EU. - Official buildings rehabilitation project (PREBO) — 30.000,000 — EU. - Study of interchanges on the Le Prince Road — 7,000 — BND. - Petit Bateau Road — 53,500 — BND. - Construction of Conakry Bus Terminal — 19,800 — AfDB. - Labé – Mali – Kédougou Road (6 lots) — 1,260,000 — ISDB, FSD, GG, and others. - Program of highly labor intensive road improvement projects in Conakry and secondary cities — 48,000,000 — EU. - Aggregate figures as presented in the source: - Total — 292 ,978 78,743, 153 1,385,374 80,371,505 ### Telecommunications and ICT: expansion, strategy, and financing - Sector progress and targets: - Mobile telephony access rose from 2 percent in 2005 to over 40 percent in 2010, a 38 percentage point increase in five (5) years, well in excess of the objective of 25 percent in 2010. - Major remaining problem: poor quality of interconnections among the various operators. - Policy action in 2010: - Ministry of Posts, Telecommunications, and New Information Technologies (MPTNTI) finalized and validated its National Policy and Strategy Paper on the Development of Information and Communication Technologies. - The paper was adopted by the government on December 22, 2010. - Objectives of the National ICT Strategy: - Contribute to achieving the PRSP objectives and the MDGs, build an inclusive information society, and introduce Guinea into the knowledge economy. - Estimated financing and review: - Total cost of implementing the National ICT Strategy is estimated at US$445 million. - The plan will be readjusted every three (3) years to take account of resource mobilization capacities and changing needs. - Intended contributions of the strategy: - (i) improving governance and building institutional and human capacities; - (ii) achieving strong and sustainable economic growth; - (iii) facilitating equitable access to basic social needs; - (iv) developing the private sector and creating jobs for young people. - Seven (7) focal points of the telecommunications strategy: - (i) the introduction of cyber legislation and an appropriate institutional framework; - (ii) the development of human resource skills in the ICT area; - (iii) establishing a shared backbone for transmitting data, voice, and video; - (iv) ensuring a supply of quality communications services at the national level; - (v) reforming and developing the postal sector; - (vi) the promotion of ICTs for development; - (vii) dynamic cooperation. - Implementation partners: government intends to work with all public and private operators, civil society, and development partners. ### Postal sector reform and operational priorities - Reform objectives for the Guinean Post Office (OPG): - Strengthen operational capacities to deal with technological changes, improve competitiveness, and diversify product range. - Priority actions for postal services: - (i) continue the reform of the postal sector; - (ii) adopt the ICTs; - (iii) expand the postal transport fleet to maintain and consolidate the quality of routing to the interior of the country; - (iv) build human resource capacities. - Implementation planning: - A plan has been drawn up to operationalize the strategy, identifying estimated requirements and to be readjusted every three (3) years to reflect actual resource mobilization capacities. ### Telecommunications projects and costs (Table 14 summary) - Protection of Nzérékoré/Sonfonia Forwarding Centers — 628 — BND. - Government Network and Electronic Administration — 1,570 — China. - Restoration of Postal/Telecom Buildings — 650 — BND. - Total — 2,848. *Source: National Multiyear Planning Directorate.* ### Chapter 3. Improving the people’s access to quality social services ### Chapter 3. Improving the people’s access to quality social services ### Demographic context and overarching goal - Population growth: 3.1 percent a year. - Policy background: Population Policy Declaration adopted in 1991 and revised in 2002 aiming to match economic growth with population growth and address education, healthcare access, decent housing, gender, social protection, HIV/AIDS. - Observed fertility stagnation: about 5.6 children per woman over 1992-2005. - PRSP focus: human capacity building through improved access to quality education, healthcare services, social promotion, culture, and HIV/AIDS response as critical components of poverty reduction. ### II.3.1. Improving access to quality education for all Short- and medium-term objectives - MDG/PRSP-aligned target: universal school enrollment and 100 percent primary school completion by 2015. - Specific objectives and numeric targets: - Increase the education budget in the BND from 11.3 percent in 2009 to 25 percent in 2012. - Increase primary school share in total education expenditure from 37 percent in 2010 to 44 percent in 2011, to reach 50 percent by 2015. - Increase access rate to first year of primary school from 76.05 percent in 2010 to 80 percent in 2011, to reach 100 percent by 2015. - Increase primary cycle completion rate from 56.53 percent in 2010 to 60 percent in 2011, to reach 100 percent by 2015. - Increase girl/boy parity index in primary school from 0.81 in 2010 to 0.85 in 2011, to reach 1 by 2015. - Increase adult literacy rate from 35 percent in 2010 to 50 percent (including 40 percent for women) by 2012. - Improve management capacities to cover at least 55 percent of school administrators at the central and deconcentrated levels by 2012. - Build housing for instructional personnel in at least 30 percent of the schools in extremely poor areas. - Provide all primary schools in areas of food insecurity with school canteens to increase attendance. Strategies for improving access and quality - Three key policy components: increased access, quality improvement, strengthened management. - Access measures include: develop school coverage map; enhance community awareness; incentives to increase demand; infrastructure construction and rehabilitation; school equipment; multigrade classes; reduce doubling up classes. - Quality measures include: better-targeted training and materials; initial and continuing training of instructional staff; apprenticeship monitoring and evaluation; production/purchase of instructional manuals and materials. - Management measures include: - Increase public financing from 2 percent of GDP in 2009 to at least 4 percent of GDP in 2012. - Increase share of government budget devoted to elementary education to 50 percent of current education expenditure by 2015. Strategic options and operational focuses - Consolidate basic education progress: improve coverage and retention, boost apprenticeship quality, correct disparities. - Regulate flows between education levels: tradeoffs between quantity and quality; introduce short-term vocational training at end of primary and first cycle secondary school. - Improve teacher quality: rigorous recruitment and certification at ENIs; updated training modules. - Intensify training of multifunction secondary instructors; replicate successful community participation experiments. - Sectoral plan for institutional capacity building; stepped-up literacy and nonformal education; enforce special education legislation; introduce HIV/AIDS instruction at all education levels. - Three unavoidable strategic focuses: (i) relaunch Sectoral Education Program (PSE) ASAP; (ii) allocate sufficient resources to priorities; (iii) mobilize social partners. Human resources and component actions (62 actions grouped under five components) - Component 1: Strengthen normative framework and effectiveness of rules/responsibilities in HR management. - Strengthen cohesiveness of management framework; clarify roles/responsibilities; strengthen oversight and accountability; involve social partners. - Component 2: Return instructional staff to classes and strengthen objective assignment criteria. - Redeploy unassigned personnel to shortage areas; define/enforce assignment/transfer rules and procedures; continue restructuring IREs, DPEs, DCEs for reassignment. - Component 3: Improve recruitment and assignment modalities for new instructional staff. - Raise selectivity at ENIs; plan annual recruitment at ENIs and ISSEG based on estimated real need; gradually incorporate recruits per budgeted job slots; make teaching more attractive. - Component 4: Introduce streamlined, cohesive, high-performance information system. - Provide access to comprehensive, regularly updated personnel database harmonized with ministry data; harmonize Payroll, FGA, and MEPU-EC Human Resources Directorate data. - Component 5: Take merit and performance into account. - Optimize use of staff serving in difficult areas; recognize high-merit staff and administrators; ensure teaching staff earn a decent living wage. Higher education objectives (2011-2015) - Address imbalance between graduate numbers and labor market. - Objectives: improve university infrastructures; build technical and pedagogical capacities of IESs; introduce quality and standards control mechanisms; promote scientific research; improve program content for graduate competitiveness; bolster and diversify cooperation; strengthen gender/equity in IESs and research centers; initiate reform of higher education financing. - Support measures: curriculum renewal (LMD system), training/retraining of instructional personnel, modernization of labs/equipment, strengthen libraries and educational support, provision of texts and computer hardware, Internet access in a number of IESs, Research and Innovation Fund (FRI). ### II.3.2. Improving access to health and nutritional services, particularly for the poor Health policy and general objective - National health policy aligned with WHO 1978 primary health care strategy. - General objective: by 2015 establish an accessible healthcare system capable of addressing population health needs without geographic, economic, sociocultural barriers. Specific 2015 targets (numeric) - Reduce under-5 mortality from 177 per 1,000 to 90 per 1,000 from 2005 to 2015. - Reduce infant (under 1) mortality from 98 per 1,000 to 50 per 1,000 from 2005 to 2015. - Reduce maternal mortality from 980 per 100.000 live births to 220 per 100.000 live births from 2003 to 2015. - Hold HIV/AIDS seroprevalence below 1.5 percent by 2015. - Reduce mortality from malaria by 40 percent from 2005 to 2015. - Reduce mortality from tuberculosis by 50 percent from 2003 to 2015. - Reduce incidence of failure to thrive among children under age 5 from 26 percent to 13 percent from 2005 to 2015. Objectives for 2011 (numeric) - Increase pentavalent vaccination coverage of children to 90 percent (85 percent in 2009). - Increase prenatal care (PNC) rate to 90 percent (88.2 percent in 2007). - Raise tuberculosis screening rate to 64 percent and success rate to 80 percent. - Improve availability of STI prevention services. - Increase proportion of properly staffed health facilities to 60 percent. - Increase rate of availability of tracer medications in basic health facilities to 80 percent in 2011. Constraints and diagnostics - Focus needed on basic healthcare facility infrastructures and extension of the minimum activities package (MAP) with regular provision of consumables, generic essential drugs (GEDs), and vaccines. - Number of health centers: increased from 399 in 2007 to 410 in 2009. - Private pharmacy coverage: increase of 274 facilities during 2002-2004 (61 in the interior) versus previously 256 with 59 in the interior. - 13 prefectures out of 33 have no private pharmacy coverage. - Country’s interior accounts for 22.3 percent of private pharmacies serving almost 82 percent of the national population. - Financing sources: state, subnational governments, the people, and technical/financial partners (TFPs). - User-financing problems: cost recovery and purchase of medications using own revenues have proven inefficient, leading to shortages. - State subsidies: irregular, inadequate, difficult to disburse; since September 2005 health structures have unilaterally set ceilings of GF 8,000 in Health Centers and GF 90,000 in prefecture hospitals. - Human resources shortfalls in midwives, laboratory technicians, healthcare aides, specialized nurses, and specialized physicians; staff distribution disparity with excesses in urban areas. Planned measures (by disease/area) - Vaccination: - Include antimalaria and anti-hepatitis B vaccines in routine EPI. - Door-to-door vaccination measures for poor and isolated areas. - Implement “Reach Every District” (ACD) strategy. - Introduce AH1N1 flu vaccine in routine EPI. - Tuberculosis: - Continue improvement of high-quality DOTS nationwide. - HIV testing among those ill with tuberculosis. - Introduce practical respiratory health approach. - Strengthen community participation. - HIV/AIDS: - Capacity building in healthcare structures. - Establish service provision contracts between National Program, NGOs, and community associations for behavior-change communication. - Establish contracts with technical and financial partners. - Introduce plan for management of stocks and provision of medications and reagents. - Reproductive health: - Expand emergency obstetric and neonatal care in basic units and complete care in reference hospitals. - Facilitate referral of expectant mothers to hospitals for complications. - Raise technical competence in reference institutions. - Introduce subsidies for cost-free childbirths and Caesarian sections. - Other measures: - Establish regional/prefectural disease-specific treatment units. - Organize and account for traditional medicine. - Establish pharmaceutical depots in regions. - Human resource capacity building. - Adoption and application of individual health statute. - Decentralization of human resource management in health. Financial accessibility and financing needs MDG intervention cost estimates (2005 to 2015) - Table 15: Overview of intervention costs, 2005 to 2015 (Total cost in millions of US$; Annual per capita cost) - Health system: 333.9; 2.54 - Infant/child health: 258.2; 1.98 - Maternal health: 179.9; 1.22 - Malaria prevention: 32.3; 0.26 - Malaria treatment: 178.7; 1.46 - Tuberculosis: 25.3; 0.21 - HIV/AIDS: 40.3; 0.31 - Total: 1,048.5; 7.99 - Achieving MDG targets by 2015 requires US$1,048.5 million for health interventions, roughly US$8 per inhabitant per year. Current financing contributions (orders of magnitude) - US$60 million from the Global Fund over 5 years for malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS. - US$13 million from the UNFPA over 5 years for maternal health. - US$17 million from UNICEF over 5 years for infant/child health. - US$25 million from the World Bank over 5 years for maternal and infant/child mortality. - US$10 million a year from budgetary resources. Donor project portfolio (Table 16; in thousands of US$) - USAID and EU portfolio budgets: - HIV/AIDS Program: 2,000 (2010), 2,000 (2011) — USAID. - Maternal and Infant/Child Health Program: 2,500 (2010), 2,500 (2011) — USAID. - Reproductive Health and Family Planning Program: 3,000 (2010), 3,000 (2011) — USAID. - Improvement of Urban Nutritional Security (ASANU): 3,735 (2010), 2,912 (2011) — EU. - Total: 11,235 (2010); 10,412 (2011). Other financing mechanisms - HIPC funds: will supplement financing for planned measures. - Mutual health associations and health insurance (SAM): - SAM mechanisms include National Social Security Fund, insurance companies, mutual health associations. - Introduce mandatory health insurance for public sector workers. - Develop mutual health associations at community and corporate levels. ### II.3.3. Improving access to energy services for rural and periurban populations - Rural electrification: rural areas house over 60 percent of the poorest; electrification rate scarcely exceeds 2 percent. - Current power generation in 16 rural localities enabling economic and social activities. - Government objective: provide each of the 304 CRDs with a power production unit. - Measures: - Support the Rural Electrification Office (BERD). - Promote private initiative in the sector. - Explore other energy sources, particularly clean/nonpolluting sources. ### II.3.4. Improving access to safe drinking water - 2010 targets: increase potable water access to 90 percent nationally, 92.8 percent in urban areas, 77.9 percent in rural areas (not achieved due to financing problems). - ELEP data: rural access currently at 67.1 percent. - CWIQ 2002 baseline: rural access 52.8 percent; national 62.3 percent. - PNAEPA objective: reduce by half, by 2015, the proportion of persons lacking access to safe drinking water and increase service availability rate from 42.25 percent to 71.12 percent. ### II.3.5. Improving housing and sanitation services Strategic vision and targets - National housing policy vision: create a healthy and secure living environment; promote decent housing for effective, ecologically sustainable, socially equitable development. - PNGHG objective: improve living conditions of 75 percent of Guinean slum dwellers and substantially increase proportion of households with access to secure tenure. - PNHG prospective outlook covers 2010-2021. Four focal areas and policies a) Spatial and property development - Aim: balance urban and rural centers; strengthen regulatory powers of property system. - Policies: control planning/development of national and urban space. b) New housing and financing - Focus: mechanisms for large-scale production of decent, affordable housing. - Policies and measures: - Adopt and enforce Construction and Housing Code. - Create a bank specializing in housing finance. - Adopt charter of the National Housing Fund. - Strengthen microlending networks; promote extension of banking services for household incomes. - Introduce mechanisms to control production and financing costs via National Housing Fund. - Introduce incentive measures for private sector, NGOs, local communities to produce improved lots and housing. - Provide standardized plans for low- and middle-income households. c) Squatter communities and financing their elimination - Strategy: eradicate slums and squatter communities via urban restructuring, land tenure regularization, and provision of urban public facilities. - Targets: fully eliminate irregular housing in Conakry by 2021; reduce irregular housing areas in other cities by 50 percent. - Intervention axes: - Renovation and rehabilitation of older neighborhoods. - Improvement of rehousing sites. - Improve secure tenure for poor households in irregular neighborhoods. - Computerize land registry, establish property plans, collective registration. - Train residents in trades. - Develop microcredit targeted at poorest groups. - Access to subsidized financing by poor families. - Include poor populations in decisions on city development. d) Governance of the housing sector - Focus: construct institutional architecture; promote democracy, rule of law, transparency in planning and property/space management. - Policies: - Improve institutional framework for sector management. - Update legislative and regulatory framework. - Introduce training plan for institutional stakeholders. - Introduce Oversight and Inspection System, audits, and sanctions in relevant agencies. - Deconcentrate procedures for access to property and construction permits. Planned 2011 interventions - Continue implementation of the Third Urban Development Project (PDU3) and strategic focuses of national housing policy. - Specific ongoing actions: organize States-General on land-related issues; identify and register land reserves in Conakry, Kindia, Labé, Kankan, and Nzérékoré. *Source: _cr1261 - Chapter 3. Improving the people’s access to quality social services* ### introduction of a land and property registry information system with a view to improving the mobilization of ### introduction of a land and property registry information system with a view to improving the mobilization of local resources and securing access to property ### Urban planning and housing: projects and costs (2010–2012) - Table 17 totals and notable project figures (in millions of Guinea francs): - Total (all projects): 334,140 (2010); 109,893 (2011); 23,717 (2012); Total: 467,750 - Application of City Master Plans: 1,400 (2010); 2,434 (2011); 1,291 (2012); Total: 5,125 — Donor/Lender: BND - Third Water and Sanitation Project: 15,150 (2010); 8,500 (2011); - (2012); Total: 23,650 — Donor/Lender: IDA - Third Urban Development Project (Phase 2): 29,400 (2010); 34,000 (2011); - (2012); Total: 63,400 — Donor/Lender: IDA - Reconstruction of Disaster Areas: 14,614 (2010); 3,000 (2011); 3,000 (2012); Total: 20,614 — Donor/Lender: ISDB - Inventory, Protect/Registr. Land Reserve Areas: 49 (2010); 809 (2011); 539 (2012); Total: 1,397 — Donor/Lender: BND - Renovation, Construction, and Outfitting of Buildings: - (2010); 5,000 (2011); - (2012); Total: 5,000 — Donor/Lender: BND - Rehabilitation and Paving of Conakry Road Segments: 150 (2010); 2,000 (2011); - (2012); Total: 2,150 — Donor/Lender: BND - Reconstruction Social Infrastructures in Southern Border Areas: 13,500 (2010); - (2011); - (2012); Total: 13,500 — Donor/Lender: ISDB - Rehabilitation of Public Buildings destroyed during strikes: - (2010); 10,000 (2011); 25,000 (2012); Total: 35,600 — Donor/Lender: EU - Improved Access to Conakry Neighborhoods: 126 (2010); 11,939 (2011); - (2012); Total: 12,065 — Donor/Lender: BND - Opening of Crossways for T5 north- T14 (Boundary Marking): 9,121 (2010); 8,000 (2011); - (2012); Total: 17,121 — Donor/Lender: BND - Infrastructure/Equipment Ministry of National Defense: 186,530 (2010); - (2011); - (2012); Total: 186,530 — Donor/Lender: BND - Moussoudougou Sanitation: 25,000 (2010); - (2011); - (2012); Total: 25,000 — Donor/Lender: BADEA - Road network rehabilitation in districts of Hamdallaye, Dar Salam, and Cité de l'Air: 25,000 (2010); 2,150 (2011); 15,000 (2012); Total: 42,150 — Donor/Lender: BND - Improvement of Border Enclaves (Boké, Koundara, Siguiri, Kankan, Lola, Gueke, Faran, Foreca): 3,500 (2010); 4,450 (2011); - (2012); Total: 7,950 — Donors/Lenders: ECOWAS/AfDB/AFD - Planned urban interventions (text): - Introduction of a land and property registry information system to mobilize local resources and secure access to property. - Establishment of land plans aimed at securing poor land-owning households for two communes in Conakry. - Restructuring three poor neighborhoods in Conakry and regularizing ownership and occupancy statuses, particularly for the poorest. - Improving slums in densely populated cities. - Building a test public housing unit in Conakry (studies). - Conduct of concerted improvement operations in two peripheral housing subdivisions in Guinea. ### Sanitation measures - Planned measures: - Rainwater drainage in the city of Conakry to protect people and property, particularly in underequipped housing areas. - Sanitation in poor neighborhoods in Conakry and in secondary cities, with intensive involvement of the people and the private sector. - Management of wastewater and household refuse. ### Institutional measures in housing and urban planning - Planned institutional actions: - Establishment of the Housing Bank and launching of the National Housing Fund. - Capacity building in the urban planning and housing sector. ### Social protection — scope and women’s promotion priorities (2011–2012) - Definition and role: - Social protection encompasses formal and informal private and public initiatives that connect people to job markets, reduce risk exposure, and improve capacity to protect against income and other shocks; includes labor market policies, social insurance, social assistance, safety nets, and targeted interventions to promote access to services for poor communities and households. - Priority actions for the promotion of women (short and medium terms, 2011-2012): - Harmonization of the National Gender Policy with that of the African Union, and its finalization; - Conduct of a diagnostic study on the financing of gender-related activities; - Capacity creation and building for gender divisions at all ministerial departments; - Capacity building for statistical and planning units in the gender area; - Enhanced coordination capacity of the Ministry of National Solidarity and the Promotion of Women and Children; - Capacity building of the Topic-based Group on Gender; - Development of a multisectoral action plan for implementation of the National Strategy for Combating Gender-Based Violence; - Publicizing and disseminating the implementing provisions of Law/L010/AN of July 10, 2000 on Reproductive Health; - Signature of the draft Declaration banning the practice of genital mutilation; - Adoption, promulgation, and publicizing of the draft revised Civil Code; - Promulgation of the draft Law on Parity between Men and Women; - Implementation of the Integrated National Program on the Literacy of Women; - Capacity building for women on the management of microcredit; - Increasing the National Support Fund for the Economic Activities of Women; - Continued work to build and outfit centers for supporting self-help for women; - Creation of a National Solidarity Fund; - Development of a strategy for expediting the implementation of Resolutions 1325, 1820, 1888, and 1889; - Creation of a fund for the implementation of the 2009-2013 Strategic Planning for implementation of the afore-mentioned resolutions. ### Promotion of culture - Government stance: - Access to culture is a requirement for development policy implementation. - Priority actions include conducting a national inventory of cultural heritage and constructing cultural infrastructures and equipment. ### PRS implementation: guiding principles and stakeholder roles - Guiding principles (same as PRSP-2): participation, proximity, results, transparency, relevance, rapidity, subsidiarity, complementarity, synergy, job creation (in particular for the poor and youth), sustainable development, and social justice. - Stakeholder responsibilities include: - Applying simplified disbursement procedures at project and program level to improve resource absorption. - Harmonizing interventions of development partners. - Interconnecting the state budget and PRSP priorities. - Timely payment of debt service and counterpart funds. - Strengthening dialogue between stakeholders. - Reforming the defense and security forces. - Eliminating extrabudgetary expenditure. - Mobilizing the people to take ownership of the PRSP. - Actions on facilitation, information, education, literacy, public awareness, and dissemination of legal and regulatory provisions. - Support in mobilizing financial resources. - Development of economic activities. - Contributing to wealth and job creation benefiting the poorest. - Participation in PRS monitoring and evaluation. - Monitoring the execution of expenditure in favor of the priority sectors. ### PRS implementation instruments and monitoring systems - Implementation instruments include ongoing projects and programs: Support Program for Village-Level Communities (PACV2), Project for the Sustainable Socioeconomic Development of Upper and Middle Guinea (PDSD – HMG) upgraded in 2010 to an economic and social development fund, Poverty Reduction Strategy Support Project (ASRP) financed by the GIZ, Faisons-Ensemble Project, ALP-GDO Project, and other sectoral programs and projects. - Monitoring and evaluation approach: - Iterative and evolutionary; based on mechanisms from PRSP-2 adapted as needs are identified. - Requires coordination, matching of structures, better functioning, and refinement of tools such as MSEGUI and the ERETES module of MSEGUI-PAMS. - Development of additional tools/mechanisms as needed to introduce a global monitoring and evaluation system per the National Statistical Development Strategy (SNDS). ### PRS financing and associated risks - Financing principles: - State to play a preponderant role in steering stakeholders. - Focus on mobilization of domestic and external resources; explore domestic financing from national private sector, grassroots communities, contributions from Guinean nationals to reduce dependence on external assistance. - External assistance will remain preponderant; preference for concessional loans and possibly foreign direct investment. - Funds obtained after reaching the HIPC completion point will be important resources. - PRS implementation costs form part of the resource requirements for achieving the MDGs in the period covered. - Financing risks: - Economy vulnerable due to strong dependence on external assistance, much of it in loan form — underscores importance of debt sustainability, optimal utilization of development assistance, and institutional capacity building for improved aid absorption. - Budgetary resources excessively dependent on mining proceeds; unanticipated disruptions in prices could jeopardize PRS financing. - Likely large financing gap due to (i) unpredictability and constraints of aid; and (ii) narrow national economic base with weak nonmining resources and preponderance of subsistence and informal activities. - Failure to observe program commitments with Bretton Woods institutions would prevent benefiting from the HIPC Initiative and the MDRI. - Macroeconomic stability and PRS financing could be negatively affected by government strategic expenditure requirements induced by the legislative and community elections of 2011; remedyable by strengthened fiscal discipline, resolve to meet monetary policy targets, and sound management of partner-provided resources for elections. ### Institutional framework for implementation and monitoring - National coordination: - PRSP implementation, monitoring, and evaluation coordinated by institutional mechanisms used under PRSP-2. - Topic-based group on monitoring and evaluation (groupe thématique) will be expanded from 25 members to include other sector concerns and will meet periodically. - Sectoral PRS monitoring and evaluation units to be introduced in sectoral departments. - Regional capacity building in existing CTRSEs and establishment of new CTPSEs. - Execution monitoring responsibilities: - National Budget Directorate (DNB): monitor execution of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and the program budget; ensure PRSP objectives are reflected in the national budget. - National Directorates of Planning and the Economy: monitor execution of priority action plans; (i) ensure donor interventions are consistent with PRSP; (ii) produce and publish half-yearly monitoring report with outcomes and recommendations; (iii) contribute to development of evaluation capacity; improve MSEGUI and link with PAMS for reliable poverty estimates. - National Directorates of Multiyear Programming and Public Investment: central to programming and monitoring public investments; ensure PRSP objectives are taken into account at budget programming conferences; convey annual monitoring reports to PRS Permanent Secretariat with outcomes and recommendations. - National Directorate of the Public Debt and Official Development Assistance: monitor ODA and HIPC resources; control domestic and external debt; submit half-yearly report on ODA and HIPC management. - National Directorate of International Cooperation: support structures in identifying and mobilizing financing from development partners; submit half-yearly report on mobilization of external resources. - Executive Secretariat of the National Anti-AIDS Committee (CNLS): monitor execution of the National Strategic Plan for Combating HIV/AIDS; ensure pandemic is taken into account in macroeconomic and sectoral planning instruments. ### Monitoring impact and statistical work (INS role) - National Statistical Institute (INS) responsibilities: - Steer impact monitoring focused on poverty evolution and living conditions by: - Implementing the Action Plan of the National Statistical Development Strategy, including surveys essential for monitoring household living conditions and poverty; - Gathering information on monitoring indicators for socioeconomic data; - Developing a communication strategy. - Organize a General Population and Housing Census (RGPH). - Organize the population and health survey (EDS4) and a quick survey for poverty evaluation to update poverty data. - Introduce a database on PRS monitoring indicators in collaboration with sectoral departments producing statistical information. - Gather, process, analyze, and disseminate monitoring indicators and surveys defined for the poverty monitoring system. - Produce an SNDS implementation report half-yearly — INS has already produced two progress reports, the first for 2009 and the second for 2009. - Participation and communication: - Communications Unit of the PRS Permanent Secretariat will continue to publish the PRS journal and update its website with support from development partners to ensure beneficiary participation and impact identification. ### PRS evaluation - Evaluation scope and approach: - Evaluation will concern the PRSP (2011-2012), the extension of PRSP-2. - Approach includes both qualitative and quantitative appraisal. - A Steering Committee made up of all stakeholders in implementation will be put in place. - Consolidation through capacity building in internal evaluation and development of a monitoring and evaluation strategy to enhance intervention efficiency by strengthening monitoring and evaluation units countrywide. ### Monitoring indicators for the PRSP (2011–2012) — HIPC completion point triggers - Ten key indicators identified as triggers for the HIPC Initiative completion point: - Health: - Increase in the vaccination rate of children at least 1 year of age (DTC3: diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough) from 45 percent in 2000 to 50 percent in 2001, and 55 percent in 2002; - Improvement in the percentage of pregnant females receiving at least one (1) prenatal consultation from 70 percent in 2000 to 80 percent in 2001 and 85 percent in 2002. - Education: - Increase in the gross enrollment rate for primary school pupils from 56 percent in 1999 to 62 percent in 2001 and 71 percent in 2002; gross enrollment rate of girls: 40 percent in 1999, 51 percent in 2001, and 61 percent in 2002; - Increase in the number of primary school teachers through new hiring of at least 1,500 a year for each year until reaching the HIPC completion point, from an estimated base of about 15,000 primary school teachers in 2000. - Governance and combating corruption: - Introduction of a suitable regulatory framework for microcredit institutions; - Availability to the public of a one-year progress report (showing resources and activities) for the ANBGLC; - Auditing of all large contracts for amounts exceeding GF 100 million and publication of the audit findings on a quarterly basis. - PRSP processes: - Complete preparation of a PRSP on a participatory basis, and its satisfactory implementation for one year as borne out by the joint evaluation of the country’s annual activity report; - Improvement in baseline poverty and in surveillance capacity by conducting a survey to measure living conditions, including establishment of poverty survey and poverty indicators, and a poverty monitoring system that involves the key stakeholders; - Continued maintenance of macroeconomic stability, as evidenced by the satisfactory implementation of the PRGF program. - Current status statement from the source: - Six of these ten indicators have been achieved and efforts will need to be made to maintain them. The other four indicators will be subject to ongoing monitoring during PRS execution with a view to their achievement. Records have already been submitted and others will be during the period. *Source: National Multiyear Investment Directorate; PRSP (2011-2012) implementation, monitoring, and evaluation sections as provided in the content unit.* ### 2002. After the installation of the consensus government in 2007, a new PRGF-supported program was ### _cr1261 - 2002. After the installation of the consensus government in 2007, a new PRGF-supported program was ### Program history and macroeconomic implications - A PRGF-supported program was approved on December 21, 2007; a first program review was completed in July 2008 and discussions on the second review were launched in September 2008, but work was interrupted after the military junta came to power on December 23, 2008. - Restoration of constitutional order is expected to permit return of technical and financial partners and: - enable the country to conclude a program and benefit from external assistance for financing fiscal deficits, - increase aid and community-level development projects, - potentially eliminate or reduce monetary financing by the BCRG, - ensure stability of prices and the exchange rate of the Guinea franc in terms of the euro and the U.S. dollar, - lay groundwork for solid pro-poor growth. - This trigger could be reached as a result of PRS implementation. ### Governance: procurement audits and public integrity - Quarterly publication of audits of procurement contracts signed by the Government is a governance trigger. - In 2008, with World Bank and IMF support, a system of quarterly audits based on a sample of large procurement contracts was introduced. - The first audit report (covering 13 contracts and 20 percent of the procurement contracts for over GF 100 million signed in the first quarter of 2007) was published in October 2008. - A project to initiate the second quarterly audit for major contracts was drafted, but implementation suffers from the country's financial problems. ### Prenatal consultations and health sector outcomes - The end-2008 HIPC Initiative evaluation concluded the trigger to increase the number of prenatal consultations had not been satisfied, largely due to reliability problems with administrative statistical data rather than lack of results. - Pinpoint surveys show the prenatal consultation rate improved significantly since 2000 and stands at 88.2 percent in 2008. - Improvements attributed to availability of infrastructure, equipment, human resources, management tools, and vaccines provided by the government and partners. - Infrastructure and equipment investments between 2005 and 2007: - Seven (7) public health centers built; - Two (2) maternity facilities built; - Ten (10) health posts built; - Twenty-five (25) health centers provided with basic obstetrical, sterilization, and recovery kits; - 86 percent of the health centers provided with motorbikes and/or bicycles for advanced strategies; - Thirty-two (32) districts received new vehicles for supervision purposes. - Human resources: - 329 health personnel recruited for the 18 poorest prefectures; - Personnel providing prenatal consultations evenly distributed; - Numerous supervisory staff received training; - Bonuses institutionalized for personnel providing vaccinations, public criers, and ambulance drivers in the poorest prefectures, which also received motorbikes. - Vaccine availability: no interruption in stocks since 2006. - Government committed to continue efforts through effective reproductive health actions. ### Outlook for reaching the HIPC Initiative completion point in 2011 - Reaching the completion point in 2011 requires: - government measures to consolidate gains on triggers already satisfactory, - implementation of measures to improve outturns for triggers not yet reached, - mobilization for restoration of constitutional order, reform of defense and security forces, and consolidation of peace to permit satisfactory PRSP implementation and reaching the completion point. - Specific conditional pathway: - Establishment of strong and transparent institutions after presidential elections could open discussions with partners and Bretton Woods institutions to draw up a program supported by the PRGF. - Proper and successful implementation of such a program for a year would significantly advance achievement of the HIPC Initiative completion point in 2011. - Operational priorities: - Continue quarterly audits by selecting large contracts and resume audits interrupted in late 2008. - Improve prenatal consultation rates through stakeholder involvement and strengthened health information collection. - Increase health sector budgetary allocation given the current allocation of about 2 percent of the national budget. - Publicize strategic intervention for reducing maternal mortality and strengthen community-level mechanisms (health mutual associations, solidarity, risk-sharing). ### Revised trigger targets (post political/economic developments) - Health: - Increase the rate of prenatal consultations from 88.2 percent in 2007 to 90 percent in 2011 and 92 percent in 2012. - Increase the rate of measles vaccine coverage from 65.4 percent in 2008 to 80 percent in 2011 and 82 percent in 2012. - Education: - Increase the national gross enrollment ratio from 77 percent in 2009 to 90 percent in 2011 and 92 percent in 2012. - Increase the girl/boy parity from 0.81 in 2008 to 0.83 in 2011 and 0.85 in 2012. - Governance and anti-corruption: - Conduct and publish quarterly audits on public procurement contracts awarded in amounts exceeding GF 100 million and on public funds management. - Prepare a progress report on the activities of the National Anti-Corruption Agency. - Organize legislative and community elections in a transparent and credible manner. - PRSP: - Prepare a PRSP and implement it in a participatory and satisfactory manner. - Produce half-yearly monitoring and evaluation reports on the PRSP. - Conduct a survey aimed at improving the poverty database and capacity to monitor socioeconomic indicators. - Pursue macroeconomic stability by satisfactory implementation of a program supported by the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility. ### PRSP monitoring and indicators - An outcomes matrix has been developed to reflect the chain of results for achieving HIPC Initiative triggers and other sectoral objectives; this matrix will include PRS monitoring and evaluation indicators. - These indicators will be exhaustively analyzed by developing metadata and an indicator monitoring report. ### Implementation assumptions and risks - PRS implementation depends on endogenous and exogenous factors including: - (i) political instability at national and subregional levels; - (ii) poor governance in public affairs management, prolonging interruption in cooperation with bilateral and multilateral partners; - (iii) poor resource mobilization and failure to continue deconcentration and decentralization of public management, depriving local administrations of resources for sectoral plans; - (iv) instability of the macroeconomic framework, possibly generating social crises. - Additional risk: failure to achieve ownership of the strategy and noninvolvement of stakeholders. - Risk mitigation roles for stakeholders: - State: (i) Consolidate democratic processes and gains; (ii) restore the macroeconomic framework; (iii) improve governance in public resource management; (iv) continue and strengthen deconcentration and decentralization; (v) strengthen efforts to combat HIV/AIDS. - Civil society: continue intermediation and mobilization to achieve ownership and participation. - Private sector: strengthen partnerships to carry out income-generating and job-creating activities. - Projects and programs: align outcomes with PRS strategic objectives. - Beneficiaries: promote PRS ownership and effective involvement of beneficiaries. - Partners: support rapid achievement of the HIPC Initiative completion point and better coordination of interventions. ### Excerpt from the Government’s Priority Action Plan (selected figures and actions) - POLICY I: GOOD GOVERNANCE — Total cost: 168,932.9 (GF millions); BND: 2,981.0; External: 124,627.5; Financing requirement: 41,324.4. - Objective 1: Improve good governance — 141,989.0 (GF millions); BND: 2,981.0; External: 124,239.0; Financing requirement: 14,769.0. - Result 1: State authority restored and local development relaunched — 128,174.0 (GF millions); BND: 2,981.0; External: 124,239.0; Financing requirement: 954.0. - Organization of a national forum on the state of decentralization — 1,193.0 (GF millions); BND: 0.0; External: 239.0; Financing requirement: 954.0. - Allocation of operating appropriations to local administrations — 1,981.0 (GF millions); BND: 1,981.0; External: 0.0; Financing requirement: 0.0. - Resumption of suspended project activities (PACV, PDU3) — 125,000.0 (GF millions); BND: 1,000.0; External: 124,000.0; Financing requirement: 0.0. - Result 3: Process to revamp public administration launched — 6,000.0 (GF millions) for biometric census of civilian and military personnel (MTFP). - Result 4: Guinean diplomacy relaunched — 7,800.0 (GF millions); includes preparation of forum for Guineans abroad — 7,000.0 (GF millions). - Objective 1.2: Improve economic governance — 26,863.9 (GF millions); Result 1: Planning process relaunched — 24,505.8 (GF millions). - Finalization of PRS 2011-2012 — 688.5 (GF millions); External: 388.5; Financing requirement: 300.0. - Preparation of Five-Year Plan 2011-2015 — 3,000.0 (GF millions). - Completion of preparatory phase of the General Population and Housing Census — 5,379.0 (GF millions). - Strengthening of public media — 14,450.0 (GF millions). - Result 2: Strengthened public finance management — 1,302.0 (GF millions) (Securing of fisheries receipts). - Result 4: Strengthened control of public management and notable reduction in corruption — 1,056.1 (GF millions). - Audit of strategic sectors — 548,1 (GF millions). - Audit of government procurement contracts — 508 (GF millions). - POLICY 2: COMBATING POVERTY — Total cost: 307,855.2 (GF millions); BND: 13,681.7; External: 283.7; Financing requirement: 293,889.8. - Objective 2.1: Strengthen food security — 187,813.5 (GF millions). - Improve supply of essential products (rice, vegetable oils, and others) — 185,010.0 (GF millions). *Source: _cr1261 - 2002. After the installation of the consensus government in 2007, a new PRGF-supported program was* ### Introduction of a food ### Introduction of a food security stock mechanism MC/MEF/MDB/M. Agri ### Summary of funding envelope and aggregates - GRAND TOTAL FOR 100 DAY ACTION PLAN BUDGET: 1,207,704.0 - Breakdown by financing columns shown in source: - Column 1: 151,215.8 - Column 2: 148,911.2 - Column 3: 907,576.9 ### Key policy blocks and allocated totals - POLICY 1 – (Governance and institutional actions): (details appear throughout matrix) - POLICY 3: DEVELOPMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE — 498,676.1 - Financing columns: 134,003.1; 0.0; 364,673.0 - POLICY 4: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION — 207,209.7 - Financing columns: 550.0; 24,000.0; 182,659.7 - POLICY 5: DEFENSE AND SECURITY — 25,030.0 - Financing columns: 0.0; 0.0; 25,030.0 ### Selected objectives, results and project-level allocations (exact entries preserved) - Objective 2.2: Improve the poor’s access to basic social services — 72,711.7; 101.7; 283.7; 72,326.3 - Result 1: Improved reproductive health and access to care — 60,028.0; 0.0; 0.0; 60,028.0 - 39 Entry into service of Kipé Specialized Hospital (M. Health): No. of patients received — 4,700.0; 4,700.0 - 40 Purchase and distribution of medicines for providing care in medical/surgical emergencies (M. Health): Stocks of medicines purchased and distributed — 3,500.0; 3,500.0 - 41 Purchase and distribution of 225,000 childbearing kits and 11,250 Caesarian kits (MSHP): 225,000 childbirth kits and 11,250 Caesarian kits purchased — 28,828.0; 28,828.0 - 42 Free access to prenatal care consultations (M. Health): Effectively free No. of patients consulted at no charge — 23,000.0; 23,000.0 - Result 2: Instructional quality improved — 12,683.7; 101.7; 283.7; 12,298.3 - 43 Strengthened structures for training trainers (MESRS): No. of structures affected — 10,000.0; 10,000.0 - 44 Launch of study on the financing of higher education in Guinea (MESRS): Level of progress made with study — 283.7; 283.7; 0.0 - 45 Launch organization of regional jobs and technical training fairs for 10,000 young people (MEFP): No. of fairs held No. of persons reached — 1,000.0; 1,000.0 - 46 Dialogue (fair) on implementation of a national forum on the state of education (MEPU): Discussion document — 300.0; 101.7; 198.3 - 47 Validation of strategic plan for reducing illiteracy by 2020 (M. Literacy): Paper — 1,100.0; 1,100.0 - Objective 2.3: Improve living conditions of the people — 22,450.0; 12,450.0; 0.0; 10,000.0 - Result 1: Household environment rehabilitated and secure — 22,450.0; 12,450.0; 0.0; 10,000.0 - 48 Census, registration, and securitization of state lands and land reserves (M Urban Planning): File — 5,000.0; 5,000.0; 0.0 - 49 Clean-up campaign in Conakry and cities in interior (MEE, MUCH, METPT): No. of campaigns conducted — 10,000.0; 10,000.0 - 50 Completed construction of waste water purification station in Conakry (3rd PEA) (M. Urban Planning): Degree of completion of station — 3,850.0; 3,850.0; 0.0 - 51 Completion of construction at sanitation works for the site of the Moussoudougou interchange (M. Urban Planning): Surface area cleaned — 3,600.0; 3,600.0; 0.0 - Objective 2.4: Promote youth employment — 24,880.0; 1,130.0; 0.0; 23,750.0 - Result 1: A framework for youth employment promotion is created — 11,800.0; 200.0; 0.0; 11,600.0 - 53 Organization of training seminars for 200 youths on job-seeking techniques (MJEJ): No. of youths trained and employed — 200.0; 200.0; 0.0 - 54 Sessions for dialogue on youth employment (MJEJ): Reports — 600.0; 600.0 - 55 Support for the creation and financing of microprojects for youths (MJEJ): Reports — 11,000.0; 11,000.0 - Result 2: Supervisory capacities for youth sports are strengthened — 13,080.0; 930.0; 0.0; 12,150.0 - 56 Surfacing athletic track at the 28 September Stadium (MS): Area surfaced — 900.0; 900.0 - 57 Improvement of a multidisciplinary field in the Bambéto-Cosa axis (MS): Field improved — 150.0; 0.0; 150.0 - 58 Improvement of multisport areas (MS): Areas improved — 12,000.0; 12,000.0 - 59 Preparation of legal texts creating the Sports Arbitration Tribunal (MS): Text adopted — 30.0; 30.0 - POLICY 3 — Objective 3.1: Improve access to water and electricity — 188,635.1; 8,803.1; 0.0; 179,832.0 - Result 2: Electricity production capacities strengthened and the transport and distribution grid improved — 170,136.0; 0.0; 0.0; 170,136.0 - 62 Reconditioning of the 110kV Donkéah - Grandes Chutes line (MEE): No of pylons installed — 3,968.0; 3,968.0 - 63 Strengthening of source posts (Tombo, Matotom and Sonfonia) (MEE): No. of posts strengthened — 6,167.0; 6,167.0 - 64 Provision and installation of 3,500,000 low consumption lamps (MEE): No. of lamps installed — 52,776.0; 52,776.0 - 65 Addition of leased thermal capacity (MEE): Service level — 22,462.0; 22,462.0 - 66 Purchase of petroleum products for groups (MEE-EDG): Service level — 84,763,0; 0.0; 84,763.0 - Result 3: Drinking water production and distribution capacities strengthened — 18,499.1; 8,803.1; 0.0; 9,696.0 - 67 Purchase of 16 200- 400 KVA power generators for use in supplying water to cities in interior (MEE): No. of generators purchased and functional in these cities — 8,803.1; 8,803.1 - 68 Connection of Lake Sonfonia water treatment station to the priority electrical grid of Sonfonia University (MHE): Station connected — 9,696.0; 9,696,0 - POLICY 3 — Objective 3.2: Improve transport and telecommunications infrastructures — 310,041.0; 125,200.0; 0.0; 184,841.0 - Result 1: Transport infrastructures improved — 301,041.0; 125,200.0; 0.0; 175,841.0 - 69 Campaign to eliminate critical points on national highways (MTPT): Km of highways affected — 24,000.0; 24,000.0 - 70 Manual sectioning of 2,300 km of the surfaced network (MTPT): Km sectioned — 6,000.0; 6,000.0 - 71 Restarting paving work on the Matoto-Enta-Dapompa segment (MTPT): Km of roads affected — 150,000.0; 125,200.0; 24,800.0 - 72 Rehabilitation and paving of road segments to Conakry and in cities of the interior (MTPT): Km of roads rehabilitated — 75,000.0; 75,000.0 - 73 Resumption of work on T 5 South crossings and Enta Sonfonia crossover (MTPT): Km covered — 45,875.0; 45,875.0 - 74 Rehabilitation of Bantala Ferry in Gaoual (MTPT): Ferry rehabilitated — 166.0; 166.0 - Result 2: Public transport supply improved — 9,000.0; 0.0; 0.0; 9,000.0 - 75 Increase in number of buses available on the SOGUITRANS network (M. Transport): No. of buses put back on network — 3,000.0; 3,000.0 - 76 Resumption of Conakry highway signaling work (M. Transport): No. of signals installed — 6,000.0; 6,000.0 - POLICY 4 — Objective 4.1: Promote development of the mining sector — 206,709.7; 550.0; 24,000.0; 182,159.7 - Result 1: Agricultural production improved — 205,377.0; 500.0; 24,000.0; 180,877.0 - 77 Support for 2011/2012 crop year (M. Agri): Fertilizer quantity provided Quantity of seed distributed Production volume — 205,377.0; 500.0; 24,000.0; 180,877.0 - Result 2: Legal and institutional framework of mining sector improved — 1,332.7; 50.0; 0.0; 1,282.7 - 78 Definition of a new mining policy (Policy Declaration) (M. Mining): Document — 50.0; 50.0 - 79 Revision of mining code (M. Mining): Document — 1,282.7; 1,282.7 - POLICY 4 — Objective 4.2: Promote the development of trade — 500.0; 0.0; 0.0; 500.0 - 80 Organization of a national forum on the state of the private sector (MIPME M.Commerce MEF): The national forum held No. of participants — 500.0; 500.0 - 82 Renovation of consular chambers (MIPME M.Commerce MEF): No. of chambers renovated — 320.7; 320.7 - POLICY 5 — Objective 5.2: Guarantee the security of persons and property — 25,030.0; 0.0; 0.0; 25,030.0 - Result 1: Living and working conditions of security forces improved — 25,030.0; 0.0; 0.0; 25,030.0 - 91 Completion of two (2) buildings (R+3) on behalf of the Directorate General of National Police (M. Security M. Urban Planning): No. of buildings completed — 2,000.0; 2,000.0 - 92 Completion of construction of barracks for the Mobile Intervention and Security Companies (CMISs) of ENTA (Conakry), Kankan, Kindia, Nzérékoré, Labé, and Kagbélén (M. Security M. Urban Planning): No of barracks completed — 21,280.0; 21,280.0 - 93 Completion of construction for the Fire and Emergency Services of Kindia and Labé (M. Security M. Urban Planning): No. of fire stations constructed — 1,750.0; 1,750.0 ### Monitoring matrix highlights and medium-term targets (exact indicators and targets) - General Objective: Reduction in poverty rate from 58 percent in 2010 to 56 percent in 2012 - Increase the share of the poorest quintile in total consumption from 7.8% in 2007 to 10% in 2012 — baseline 7.8% target path: 8.2 (2011) 10 (2012) - Strategic Policy II. Accelerating growth and creating job opportunities for all - Increase the rate of growth of per capita GDP from -1.3% in 2010 to 2.2% in 2012 - Annual average inflation rate: 20.8 (reference) 17.1 (target 2011) 5.3 (target 2012) - Gross foreign assets in months of goods and services imports: 0.5 (reference) 1.5 (target 2011) 2.9 (target 2012) - Balance (excl. grants) on commitments basis, in % of GDP: -11.7 (reference) -5.1 (target 2011) -2,6 (target 2012) - Outstanding debt as % of GDP: 67.0 (reference) 64.8 (target 2011) 57.5 (target 2012) - Increase agricultural growth from 4.1% in 2011 to 5.7% in 2012; Production of local paddy rice and other food products (metric tons): 1,466 (reference) 1,806 (target 2011) 2,000 (target 2012) - Quantity of meat produced (metric tons): 65,016 (reference) 70,000 (target 2011) 75,000 (target 2012) - Nonindustrial and industrial fish catch (metric tons): 99,200 (reference) 99,308 (target 2011) 99,420 (target 2012) - Mining sector growth targets: from 1.1% in 2010 to 1.8% in 2011, and 4.6% in 2012 - No. of days required to register an enterprise: 20 (reference) 15 (target 2011) 10 (target 2012) - Electricity generation in MW: 660 (reference) 700 (target 2011) 750 (target 2012) - Increase in % of population with access to electricity from 18.1% in 2007 to 20% in 2012 - Strategic Policy III. Improved access to quality social services - Increase primary school completion rate from 58% in 2009 to 72% in 2013; gross enrollment ratio in primary school: 76% (reference) 80% (target 2011) 85% (target 2012) - Girl/boy parity in primary school: 0.82 (reference) 0.83 (target 2011) 0.85 (target 2012) - Increase adult literacy rate from 35.8% in 2008 to 44% in 2014; No. of adults taking literacy and nonformal education classes: 35,000 (reference) 40,000 (target 2011) 50,000 (target 2012) - Rate of DTC3 vaccination coverage: 80% (reference) 82% (target 2011) 85% (target 2012) - Rate of prenatal consultations: 88% (reference) 90% (target 2011) 92% (target 2012) - Percentage of childbirths assisted by qualified personnel: 46.1% (reference) 48.2% (target 2011) 50% (target 2012) - % of expectant mothers screened for HIV/AIDS: 1.4% (reference) 1.3% (target 2011) 1.2% (target 2012) - Rate of use of treated mosquito netting: 8.3% (reference) 10% (target 2011) 13% (target 2012) - Tuberculosis screening rate: 63% (reference) 66% (target 2011) 70% (target 2012) - Percentage of children suffering from chronic malnutrition: 40% (reference) 37% (target 2011) 30% (target 2012) - Percentage of children suffering from severe chronic malnutrition: 20.7% (reference) 18% (target 2011) 15% (target 2012) - Rate of water service (in urban and rural areas): 42% (reference) 46% (target 2011) 50% (target 2012) - Proportion of households with access to healthy waste water evacuation: 1.1% (reference) 3% (target 2011) 5% (target 2012) - Increase in coverage rate of social protection from 3% in 2010 to 50% in 2015; Number of persons with CNSS social insurance: 3% (reference) 5% (target 2011) 7.5% (target 2012) ### Priority actions for public finance management (matrix entry) - MATRIX OF PRIORITY ACTIONS FOR PUBLIC FINANCE MANAGEMENT, February 17, 2011 - Measure 1: Launching of the mechanism for steering, monitoring, and executing the economic and financial reforms - (Further details, ministries, instruments and estimated cost columns indicated in matrix) *Source: _cr1261 - Introduction of a food security stock mechanism (excerpted project and monitoring matrices).* ### Introduction in the Office ### Introduction in the Office of the Minister of the MEF ### Overview and coordination - Establishment of a permanent secretariat responsible for steering and monitoring economic and financial reform projects and programs. It will supervise Project Coordination and Execution Unit, supported by institutional support programs under way (PADIPOC/ PARCGEF), which will be made available to all TFPs. - Responsible entity: MEF / Office of the Minister. - Instruments: Technical assistance (TA); Logistical support. - Financing partners listed: AfDB / WB / EU / UNDP / AFD. - Date noted: Marc h 15, 2011. ### Technical assistance coordination mechanism - Objective: Establish TA to coordinate donor/lender efforts in the public finance area and to ensure a linkage with real needs in the ministries/departments concerned; TA will work as part of the government’s steering mechanism and in close cooperation with the TA planned under the PARCGEF. - Responsible entity: MEF / Office of the Minister. - Instrument: TA. - Financing partner: EU. - Date: May 1, 2011. ### Key administrative note - Page indicator: 1 bis. --- ### Policy 2 – Improvement in budget process - Measure 2 — Revise the organic law on budget laws (LORLF) to ensure gradual convergence with international standards - Progress/actions: Text prepared but not finalized. Revise the LORLF; adapt training manuals and application guides relating to the basic texts on public finances. Plan to include revenue from oil and mining activities (especially direct and indirect taxation) in the budget law. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNB. - Instrument: TA / study. - Estimated cost in US$: 100,000. - Financing source: WB / IMF. - Priority/deadline: September 1, 2011. - Measure 3 — Revise the Budget Nomenclature: Economic and functional classification - Progress/actions: Almost finalized with AFRITAC assistance; necessary to facilitate development of the project to design the PICOT accounting application. Conduct a comparative study of the not yet finalized Nomenclature in light of international public finance standards; identify deviations. Revise the Budget Nomenclature to ensure gradual convergence with international standards. Adapt training manuals and application guides relating to the basic texts on public finance. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNB. - Instrument: TA / study. - Estimated cost in US$: 50,000. - Financing source: WB / IMF. - Priority/deadline: September 2, 2011. - Measure 4 — Design of a budget preparation model - Progress/actions: Current tool developed in an Excel spreadsheet does not take revenue forecasts into account. Develop a model that incorporates data from macroeconomic and PRSP frameworks and which allows for automated budget preparation. Develop guides and manuals for the use of this tool. Devise a system for preparing a monthly cash flow plan and thereby facilitate the commitments planning process. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNB. - Instrument: TA / study / equipment. - Estimated cost in US$: 375,000. - Financing source: AfDB / IMF. - Priority/deadline: December 1, 2011. - Measure 5 — Enhance the transparency and comprehensiveness of budget management - Progress/actions: No midterm review of the budget has been conducted. 112 contracts signed in 2010, almost all without competitive tender, account for GF 4,000 billion, or 81% of the 2010 budget. A limited review was carried out; a schematic report was drawn up to report on budget execution. Action: Improve the framework of the midterm review of budget execution; make it a permanent feature for forthcoming fiscal years. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNB. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: To be indicated. - Financing source: AfDB. - Priority/deadline: September 2, 2011. - Measure 6 — Prepare Budget Execution Laws (Lois de Règlement) - Progress/actions: The last budget execution law is for 2004. Expenditure without prior payment authorization in 2005 and 2006 causes problems with clearing the provisional charging accounts. Corrective measures taken in 2010. Action: Introduce a methodology for settling accounts to catch up on time lags and permit preparation of budget execution laws; observe normal expenditure execution procedures. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNB. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: To be indicated. - Financing source: IMF. - Priority/deadline: September 2, 2011. - Measure 7 — Improve the preparation of macroeconomic forecasts - Progress/actions: The current MSEGUI system does not integrate all components required for proper macroeconomic forecasting. Action: Update economic simulation model to allow in particular for highlighting poverty indicators. - Ministry/Directorate: MPC / DNP. - Instrument: TA / Equipment. - Estimated cost in US$: 300,000. - Financing source: AfDB. - Priority/deadline: June 1, 2011. - Measure 8 — Revise the General Regulation on Government Accounting (RGCP) - Progress/actions: Text prepared but not finalized. Action: Conduct a comparative study of the unfinalized RGCP in light of international public finance standards and identify all gaps. Revise and adapt the RGCP to ensure migration toward international standards. Adapt training manuals and application guides on the basic public finance texts. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNTCP. - Instrument: TA / Study. - Estimated cost in US$: 50,000. - Financing source: WB / IMF. - Priority/deadline: September 1, 2011. - Measure 9 — Revise Government Chart of Accounts (PCE) - Progress/actions: Internal validation completed. Action: Conduct a comparative study of the unfinalized PCE in light of international standards and identify all gaps. Revise and adapt the PCE to ensure gradual convergence with international standards. Harmonize the budget and accounting nomenclature. Finalize the conversion table for the TOFE and the Treasury’s management indicators. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNTCP. - Instrument: TA / Study. - Estimated cost in US$: 50,000. - Financing source: WB / IMF. - Priority/deadline: September 1, 2011. --- ### Policy 3 – Improve government revenue - Measure 10 — Converge toward introduction of a Treasury Single Account (CUT) - Findings: Numerous initiatives with mixed results regarding closing “satellite” accounts. New accounts opened in 2009. An account inventory draft dated February 18, 2011 identified 1,823 accounts. - Actions: Conduct quarterly inventory of accounts in a framework of dialogue (commercial banks, Treasury, and central bank). Continue introduction of performance contracts with ministries collecting government revenue. Analyze option of introducing annexed budgets and/or special earmarked Treasury accounts for special situations in accordance with the Budget Law. Set deadlines for closing accounts and impose penalties for violations. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNTCP. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: To be indicated. - Financing source: WB / EU / IMF. - Priority/deadline: March 1, 2011. - Measure 11 — Evaluation of tax system - Findings: Tax system has constraints regarding local taxation, exemptions to particular sectors, and the preponderance of the informal sector. - Actions: Conduct a diagnostic study of the existing system to identify alternative actions to improve efficiency and equity; relaunch the tax appeals commission created by decree in 1998; plan and conduct tax audits. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNI. - Instrument: TA / Study. - Estimated cost in US$: 250,000. - Financing source: AfDB / France. - Priority/deadline: June 1, 2011. - Measure 12 — Sign and carry out performance contracts - Actions: Prepare a performance contract with the DNI for 2011; performance contracts should be more detailed and draw on best practices from other countries. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNI. - Instrument: TA / Equipment. - Estimated cost in US$: To be indicated. - Financing source: AfDB. - Priority/deadline: June 1, 2011. - Measure 13 — Revision of General Tax Code - Findings: Latest version dates from 2005 and does not include measures in successive Budget laws. - Actions: Revision and updating of the General Tax Code. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNI. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: To be indicated. - Financing source: AfDB. - Priority/deadline: June 1, 2011. - Measures 14–19 — Mining, petroleum, forestry contributions and modernization - Measure 14: Conduct institutional audit of the MMG; support study on mining sector’s contribution; study on harmonization of community development approach; support preparation of a mining policy. - Ministry/Directorate: MMG/ MEF. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: 300,000. - Financing source: AfDB. - Priority/deadline: December 2, 2011. - Measure 15: Finalize new Mining Code and prepare implementing provisions. - Ministry/Directorate: MMG. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: 150,000. - Financing source: AFD. - Priority/deadline: December 2, 2011. - Measure 16: Support drafting a petroleum code and its implementing provisions. - Ministry/Directorate: MMG. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: 150,000. - Financing source: AfDB. - Priority/deadline: December 2, 2011. - Measure 17: Support for transparency and improvement of business climate in the mining sector; implementation of Guinea’s EITI action plan. - Ministry/Directorate: MMG. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: 641,000. - Financing source: AfDB. - Priority/deadline: December 2, 2011. - Measure 18: Update mining cadastre; provide MMG with material resources and training. - Ministry/Directorate: MMG. - Instrument: TA / Training. - Estimated cost in US$: 456,000. - Financing source: AfDB. - Priority/deadline: December 2, 2011. - Measure 19: Study contribution of forestry and wildlife sector to the national economy; support for policy development and revision of forestry and wildlife code. - Ministry/Directorate: MEEFDD. - Instrument: TA / Training. - Estimated cost in US$: 600,000. - Financing source: AfDB. - Priority/deadline: December 2, 2011. - Measures 20–22 — Customs reform - Measure 20: Reform customs legislation to align with transaction value provisions of GATT VII – WTO. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DGD. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: To be indicated. - Financing source: AfDB / EU. - Priority/deadline: June 1, 2011. - Measure 21: Update customs nomenclature from 2002 to 2007 Tariff version. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DGD. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: To be indicated. - Financing source: AfDB / EU. - Priority/deadline: June 1, 2011. - Measure 22: Modernization of the customs information system: migrate from ASYCUDA++ to ASYCUDA World. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DGD. - Instrument: TA / Equipment. - Estimated cost in US$: To be indicated. - Financing source: AfDB / EU. - Priority/deadline: June 1, 2011. --- ### Policy 4 – Streamlining expenditure - Measure 23 — Expenditure chain - Findings: Expenditure chain not deconcentrated. DAFs and CFs of ministries need to go to the MEF to initiate commitments and approvals. - Actions: Deploy the Expenditure Chain application in pilot ministries (provisional cost of US$30,000 per ministry plus one satellite office). - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNB. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: 500,000. - Financing source: IMF. - Priority/deadline: January 3, 2012. - Measure 24 — Improve CF deconcentration - Findings: Deconcentration in progress. Financial Controllers (CFs) in place in all ministries at central level, but extra efforts needed in some spending ministries. No CFs at the prefectural level; role performed by the DPEF in 16 of 13 prefectural directorates. - Actions: Increase number of Financial Controllers in largest spending ministries (Education, Health, Infrastructure). Appoint Financial Controllers in prefectural directorates and provide resources. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNCF. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: To be indicated. - Financing source: WB. - Priority/deadline: January 3, 2012. - Measure 25 — Have CF carry out prior oversight of expenditures and regulatory actions - Findings: Abuse of expenditures without prior payment authorization (DSOPs) reduced CF role in a priori control; absence of market price listings for ex ante controls. - Actions: Reduce exceptional procedures by restoring normal procedure for expenditure execution and revise the order permitting simplified procedures. Reassess advisability of maintaining mechanism for updating price listings at the National Procurement Directorate instead of the National Financial Control Directorate. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNCF. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: 100,000. - Financing source: WB. - Priority/deadline: March 1, 2011. - Note: Two draft orders restoring normal budget execution procedure and central role of the CF have been drawn up. - Measure 26 — Update the CF manual of procedures, including background documentation nomenclature - Progress/actions: Manual developed but in early form. - Actions: Update and adopt manual of procedures, control guide and nomenclature of background documentation to ensure gradual convergence with international standards. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNCF. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: 50,000. - Financing source: WB / IMF. - Priority/deadline: June 1, 2011. - Measure 27 — Strengthen oversight of services provided - Findings: Oversight not operative owing to lack of logistical resources. - Actions: Provide the unit responsible within the DNCF with resources; draw up a half-yearly report on oversight of services provided (first report to cover first half of 2011 and be submitted by end-August 2011). - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNCF. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: 300,000. - Financing source: WB. - Priority/deadline: January 3, 2012. - Measure 28 — Prepare General Balance Sheets of the Treasury and Budget Execution Laws - Findings: General Balance Sheets drawn up with sizable balances in provisional charging account. No Budget Execution Law has been prepared since 2004. Unit established in Treasury for regularization of suspense accounts. - Actions: Introduce methodology for regularizing accounts to overcome lag (e.g., obtain agreements and maturity notices for payment of the external debt – Title 1) and prepare reliable Balance Sheets and Budget Execution Laws. Observe normal procedures for expenditure execution. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNTCP. - Instrument: TA / Study. - Estimated cost in US$: IMF (cost not provided). - Financing source: IMF. - Priority/deadline: September 1, 2011. - Measure 29 — Clear domestic debt arrears and the debit balance of the Treasury with the BCRG - Findings: Increase in stock of domestic debt arrears during exception period. Existence of a sizable Treasury debit balance with the BCRG, for about AGF 5 billion, for which a clearance protocol has been signed. - Actions: Conduct a domestic debt audit and gradually clear this debt. Implement the protocol with the BCRG and conduct an audit to attest to accuracy and correct calculation of the debit balance. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNTCP. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: 100,000. - Financing source: AFD / IMF. - Priority/deadline: June 1, 2011. - Measure 30 — Conduct quarterly audits of government procurement contracts - Progress/actions: Audits for first 2 quarters of 2007 completed in collaboration with IGF. Contract audit to be launched after mid-July unfreezing by PADIPOC (AfDB project) of GF 508 million. Multidisciplinary teams and terms of reference established. Scope extended to include contracts for 2008 and 2009 (392 contracts for roughly GF 3,600 billion, almost all without competitive bids) and 2010 (first two months 112 contracts begun for GF 4,000 billion). - Actions: Validate sample to be audited with donors/lenders. Launch procurement contract audits taking account of WB/AfDB comments on initial reports. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / IGF. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: 100,000. - Financing source: AfDB. - Priority/deadline: March 1, 2011. - Note: Audit of 2009 and 2010 contracts nearing finalization. - Measure 31 — Introduce the risk auditing approach and ensure examiners receive training - Findings: Approach not based on risks. - Actions: Include Guinea in the Africa regional program for risk-based auditing. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / IGF. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: 100,000. - Financing source: WB / France. - Priority/deadline: September 2, 2011. - Measure 32 — Introduce a framework for dialogue among the state’s supervisory bodies - Findings: Article 6 of Decree D/2010/128 calls for centralization at the CMEA of activity and audit reports; mechanism limited by lack of a framework for dialogue. Creation of four MCEA directorates raises duplication risks. - Actions: Introduce a framework for dialogue between supervisory entities to avoid duplications and improve work synergy. - Ministry/Directorate: MCEA. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: 100,000. - Financing source: AfDB / France. - Priority/deadline: December 2, 2011. - Measure 33 — Adopt the new Government Procurement Code - Findings: New text finalized in February 2009 but not yet validated; validation workshop planned for end-October 2010; submission to legislature by end-December 2010 planned. - Actions: Finalize and adopt new government procurement code. Finance phases 2 and 3 of instituting public procurement reform, as regards dissemination. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNMP. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: 400,000. - Financing source: AfDB / EU (phase 3). - Priority/deadline: September 1, 2011. --- ### Policy 5 – Improve financial governance - Measure 34 — Launch all modules of PICOT (Treasury’s accounting software) - Findings: PICOT project working in some modules; objective is to establish consolidated balance sheet and table of operating indicators of the Treasury. - Actions: Finalize PICOT to bring all modules into operation. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNTCP. - Instrument: TA / Equipment. - Estimated cost in US$: 100,000. - Financing source: IMF. - Priority/deadline: December 3, 2011. - Measure 35 — Introduce materials accounting - Findings: No application for materials accounting. - Actions: Develop an application for managing materials accounting. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNTCP. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: 200,000. - Financing source: IMF. - Priority/deadline: December 3, 2012. - Measure 36 — Implement the IT master plan - Findings/actions: A number of studies completed or under way to modernize and deploy the IT tool and the basis of the IT master plan. Make high-level technical assistance available to draw up an action plan based on analysis of the current situation and propose technical solutions for implementing an information system encompassing all public finance management activities. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / DNSI. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: 200,000. - Financing source: AfDB. - Priority/deadline: June 2, 2011. - Measure 37 — Adopt the anti-corruption law - Findings: Prepared but not yet reviewed by the Council of Ministers for adoption and forwarding to the National Transition Council. Eight regional offices of the Anti-Corruption Agency set up: four operational, four to be operational within a few weeks. - Actions: Train stakeholders that will lead up the regional focal points (OSC, grassroots authorities, judges, commissioners, etc.) and provide public awareness activities in support. - Ministry/Directorate: MCEA. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: 100,000. - Financing source: France / IMF. - Priority/deadline: June 2, 2011. - Measure 38 — Adopt the National Good Governance Program - Findings: Order establishing the National Good Governance Campaign should be adopted shortly. Coordination office in place. First meeting held early August 2010. - Actions: Adopt the National Good Governance Campaign. - Ministry/Directorate: MCEA. - Instrument: TA. - Financing source: UNDP / France. - Priority/deadline: March 2, 2011. - Measure 39 — Establish a documentation center - Findings: Lack of a documentation and records center. - Actions: Establish a documentation center at the ministry and a system for archiving all audits. - Ministry/Directorate: MCEA. - Instrument: TA / Equipment. - Estimated cost in US$: 50,000. - Financing source: IMF. - Priority/deadline: December 3, 2011. - Measure 40 — Adopt regulatory provisions attesting to creation of the Audit Office and make it operational - Findings: Draft Organic Law Establishing the Audit Office not yet adopted. Audit Office poorly staffed for future responsibilities. - Actions: Conduct a comparative study of the draft organic law in light of international public finance standards; identify gaps. Revise and adopt the Organic Law Establishing the Audit Office. Draw up a strategic plan for making the future Audit Office operational. - Responsible: Audit Office. - Instrument: TA / Study. - Estimated cost in US$: 300,000. - Financing source: AfDB / EU. - Priority/deadline: December 2, 2011. - Measure 41 — Finalize/update the DEMPA - Findings/actions: A DEMPA was initiated in 2008 but was not finalized. Finalize the DEMPA and update the debt management data. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF. - Instrument: TA. - Estimated cost in US$: To be indicated. - Priority/deadline: December 3, 2011. --- ### Policy 6 – Civil service reform / Wage bill control - Measure 42 — Clean up the payroll and Civil Service files - Findings: Numerous poorly coordinated efforts under way (extension of banking services e-billing, census, organic framework, review of information system, commitment statements, Single State Administrative and Contract Management, etc.). Assignment of staff lacking requisite skills in some units. - Actions: Establish a clear roadmap for completing the diagnostic assessment and ensure overall consistency with initiatives to achieve greater efficiency in implementation. Review skills profiles of new hires and assess opportunities for reassignment to appropriate units. - Ministry/Directorate: MEF / MFP. - Instrument: TA / Equipment. - Estimated cost in US$: 300, 000. - Financing source: EU / UNDP. - Priority/deadline: June 2, 2011. *Source: _cr1261 - Introduction in the Office* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/_cr1261.pdf_