## _cr13360 ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [_cr13360](https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/_cr13360.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/_cr13360.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/_cr13360.pdf.json) --- ### FOREWORD — progress, lessons and strategic shift - Rwanda achieved sustained economic growth, poverty reduction and reduced inequality during EDPRS 1: - sustained economic growth: "8% average" - more than a million people lifted out of poverty - Rwanda was "the tenth fastest growing economy in the world during the decade from 2000" - EDPRS 2 strategic re-orientation: - private sector placed in the "driving seat" of economic growth and poverty reduction - government to focus on transforming the economy and alleviating constraints to growth and investment - skills development (particularly for youth) and community engagement emphasized - Key lessons from EDPRS 1 to carry forward: - broad ownership, home-grown initiatives (Umuganda, Gacaca, Abunzi, Imihigo), community-based solutions (9YBE classroom construction, Crop Intensification Programme (CIP)), ICT adoption (online business registration, online tax filing), flexible institutional/legal frameworks (RDB, REB, EWSA) ### Rationale, core challenges and opportunities - Challenges (verbatim highlights): - "Poverty and inequality remain high." - "Land is pressured by increasing population density and demographic trends." - "Growing youth share of population requires 200,000 jobs to be created each year." - "Labour force characterized by low skills and productivity." - "Private sector constrained by small scale and lack of suitable infrastructure." - Opportunities: - "Favourable dependency ratio could provide a demographic dividend." - "Increasing urbanisation expands demand for goods and services." - "Domestic political and economic stability and an attractive regulatory environment support private investment." - "Rwanda's pro-activeness in environment mainstreaming positions it for green growth and investment" - EDPRS 2 structure: - Four Thematic Strategies: Economic Transformation; Rural Development; Productivity and Youth Employment; Accountable Governance - Foundational Issues continued from EDPRS 1 ### Executive summary targets and outcomes (selected) - Overarching EDPRS 2 goal: - "Accelerating progress to middle income status and better quality of life for all Rwandans through sustained growth of 11.5% and accelerated reduction of poverty to less than 30% of the population" - Vision 2020 revised targets (adopted May 2012): - GDP per capita of $1240 - Avg. GDP growth of 11.5% - Poverty reduced to 20% - Extreme poverty eliminated - 1.8 million new off-farm jobs - 35% of population urban - Exports Growth of 28% p.a. - Private sector takes dominant share of investment --- ### Thematic area: Economic Transformation (objective and priorities) - Objective (verbatim): "Sustain rapid economic growth and facilitate the process of economic transformation by increasing the internal and external connectivity of the Rwandan economy." - High-level targets and premises: - target real growth: "11.5% per annum real growth over the duration of EDPRS 2" - transformation premised on stable macro-economic environment, increased investment and savings, greater international integration, market-driven allocation, increased urbanisation, environmental attention - Five priorities: 1. Increase domestic interconnectivity (hard and soft infrastructure) — target electricity generation capacity to "563 MW" - roadmap, private sector leveraging, public de-risking (expected public investment "over $100m" for geothermal/hydro/peat/methane feasibility) - preferential access to electricity, water, roads and land for priority sectors/large investors - Business Linkages Challenge Fund (BLCF) and supplier development programme 2. Increase external connectivity and boost exports — targets and projects: - complete phase 1 Bugesera International Airport by 2017 (phase 1 estimated cost "more than US$600m"; runway 4.2km; capacity 3 million passengers annually) - expand RwandAir: turnover from "US$46m" to "more than US$350m" by 2018; fleet from 7 to 12 aircraft; destinations from 13 to at least 25; make RwandAir profit-making by 2018 - finalise railway planning and procurement with intent to start construction before end of EDPRS 2 - integrated logistics: Kigali Logistics Platform (KLP), off-dock container depots in Mombasa and Dar es Salaam, One-Stop Border Posts at all Rwandan borders, NTB monitoring institutionalised 3. Transform the private sector — increase investment, attract large foreign investors, deepen financial sector; objective to raise credit to private sector to "30% of GDP by 2018" (see financial sector measures) 4. Transform economic geography — facilitate urbanisation and develop Six Secondary Cities (Huye, Muhanga, Musanze, Nyagatare, Rubavu, Rusizi); Kigali to remain regional hub; integrated public transport and BRT in Kigali with a 17km BRT corridor by 2018 5. Pursue a 'green economy' approach — pilot green city and model mine, attract green construction investment, establish Centre of Excellence on green urbanisation and Environment and Climate Change Innovation Centre; pilot green city by 2018 ### Economic Transformation: sector-specific measures (selected) - Exports and sector interventions: - Export growth objective: "28% annual real exports growth" (2013–2017) - Export interventions include: reform export promotion at RDB; US$5m export development fund; mining law overhaul and exploration investments; tea expansion: expand production area by "18,000ha" and double tea production by 2018; coffee sector capacity building to reach 10,000 coffee farmers per year via Farmer Field School (FFS) - Private sector and investment promotion: - Strengthen RDB, create Investment Promotion Taskforce and Marketing Division; finalise and implement New Investment Code (with options on sectoral/geographic incentives, exporter incentives, HQ incentives) - Financial sector development measures: - enact Pension Law and Trust Law; consolidate RSSB; develop bond market; scale up BDF credit guarantee; create creditor profile electronic system --- ### Thematic area: Rural Development (objective, priorities, targets) - Objective: "Sustainable poverty reduction is achieved through broad-based growth across sectors in rural areas..." - EDPRS 2 poverty targets: - headcount poverty target: reduce from "44.9%" to "below 30% by 2018" - extreme poverty target: reduce from "24%" (2011) to "9%" by end of EDPRS 2 (ambition) - Status quo projections: - "Status quo projection: headline poverty will reach 32% by 2017/2018" - "On current trends, extreme poverty will reduce to 14% by 2017/18" - Four rural priorities: 1. Integrated Approach to Land Use and Human Settlements — strengthen land use allocation and decentralised land management; district land use planning; "10.4 million parcels" in scope; "Ten million of these are recorded in the database"; "8.5 million parcels have been through an objections and corrections phase"; "Over 4 million parcel titles are approved for issue" 2. Increase Productivity of Agriculture — EDPRS 2 irrigation target: develop "100,000 ha under irrigation" (65,000 ha marshland; 35,000 ha hillside); MINAGRI to develop "60,000 additional ha" publicly; private sector "20,000 ha" availed for private irrigation 3. Enable Graduation from Extreme Poverty — VUP expansion, monitoring via single social protection database, double coverage of direct support/public works from "5%" to "10%" of population 4. Connect Rural Communities to Economic Opportunity — feeder roads, ICT expansion, electrification (on-grid/off-grid), WATSAN universal access; EARP household connection target: "around 45% of households with direct connections by 2017" ### Rural development infrastructure and service targets (selected) - Feeder and farm-to-market roads upgrade targets: - "2,550 km of district Class 2 feeder roads" - "7,000 km of farm to market roads" - road quality target: increase roads in good condition from "37%" to "60%" over EDPRS 2 - WATSAN and electrification: - rural electrification: twin on-grid and off-grid strategies; about "48% of the total population will be within feasible range of the grid"; off-grid for remaining "over 1.2 million" households - off-grid solar dissemination: campaign for up to "1.2 million units"; device costs referenced: "USD50" high-quality lantern with phone charging; "USD200" home solar system - improved cookstoves distribution target: "400,000 improved cook stoves" to Ubudehe Categories 1 and 2 --- ### Thematic area: Productivity and Youth Employment (objective, priorities) - Objective (verbatim): "All Rwandans have a stake in the continued economic growth of Rwanda through access to fulfilling and productive work..." - Job creation imperative: - "create at least 200,000 new jobs annually" for new labour market entrants - Current formal waged jobs: "396,000" (total waged jobs in formal economy) - Three structural transitions needed: 1. movement of farm workers into microenterprises and SMEs 2. growth and formalisation of existing small businesses 3. growth and expansion of the formal sector - Four priority areas: 1. Skills and Attitudes — curricula reform, Sector Skills Councils, TVET scale-up, internships; quantitative target: "More than 3 million people are targeted to be reached out by literacy courses and the national financial literacy campaign." 2. Technology and ICT — last mile connectivity PPPs, mobile money growth, MYICT to connect all schools and train teachers, promote automation and e-government (e-procurement, e-tax) 3. Entrepreneurship, Access to Finance and Business Development — consolidate into Integrated National Employment Programme; Business Development Centres in each district; BDF guarantees and challenge funds 4. Labour Market Interventions — Employment Service and Career Advisory Centres, job matching, Employment Service Centre piloted in 2013 (Kigali) ### Employment and education statistics (verbatim figures) - Labour structure: - farm workers: "60% of the working age population" (~3.5 million), average "26 hours per week" - informal workers: "17%" (~1 million) - formal private sector workers: "4%" (~250,000) - public sector workers: "3%" - Education: - net attendance at secondary doubled in EDPRS1: from "10.4%" to "20.9%"; gross attendance "41%" - TVET and skills focus to reduce skills deficit (2009 National Skills Audit reported "61.5% skills deficit") --- ### Thematic area: Accountable Governance (objective, priorities) - Objective (verbatim): "Enhance accountable governance by promoting citizen participation and mobilisation for delivery of development, strengthening public accountability and improving service delivery" - Two priority areas: 1. Strengthen citizen participation and demand for accountability — link home-grown initiatives (Ubudehe, Umuganda), ICT and radio, CSOs and media strengthening, anonymous suggestion boxes, JADFs 2. Improve service delivery — customer-centred service culture, Citizen Service Charters, Institute of Customer Services, Five Star reward programme - Citizen satisfaction objective: - aim to ensure "citizen satisfaction above 80%" (Accountable Governance objective stated earlier) - Governance achievements and indicators: - Adult confidence in Rule of law baseline (2012): "73.3" percent; targets "74" (2015/16) and "> 75" (2017/18) - Adult confidence in Safety and security baseline (2012): "91.3" percent; targets "92" and "93" - Adult confidence in control of corruption baseline (2012): "77.1" percent; targets "78" and "79" --- ### Foundational issues and cross-cutting themes - Foundational Issues listed: macroeconomic stability; demographic issues; food security and malnutrition; literacy, ECD and basic education; primary health care quality and accessibility; rule of law, unity and reconciliation, security; public finance management; decentralisation - Mainstreamed cross-cutting issues: - Capacity building; Environment and climate change; Gender and family; Regional integration; HIV/AIDS and NCDs; Disaster management; Disability & Social Inclusion - Environment and climate change instruments: - National Green Growth and Climate Resilience Strategy; FONERWA fund; proposed green accounting and monitoring --- ### Macroeconomic framework, costing and financing (exact figures preserved) - Macroeconomic growth projections (Optimistic Scenario): - Real GDP growth: "2012 8.0%"; "2013 7.5%"; "2014 9.4%"; "2015 10.6%"; "2016 11.4%"; "2017 12.2%"; Average 2013–2017 "10.2%"; 2013–2020 "11.5%" - GDP (Rwf billions, constant 2012 prices): 2012 "4,363"; 2013 "4,691"; 2014 "5,132"; 2015 "5,677"; 2016 "6,324"; 2017 "7,094"; 2020 "10,388" - GDP (USD millions, constant 2012 prices): 2012 "7,062"; 2013 "7,593"; 2014 "8,306"; 2015 "9,190"; 2016 "10,237"; 2017 "11,484"; 2020 "16,815" - GDP per capita (USD, constant 2012 prices): 2012 "644"; 2013 "703"; 2014 "747"; 2015 "805"; 2016 "874"; 2017 "956"; 2020 "1,306" - Investment and external sector: - Investment must increase from "21.3% in 2013" to "29.7% in 2017" to finance EDPRS 2 - Public investment trajectory: increase to "15.0% of GDP in 2015" then fall thereafter - Private investment expected to reach "15.4% of GDP in 2017" - Exports growth averages "28% per year between 2013 and 2017"; services exports around "34% per year" - Current account deficit improves from "10.6% in 2013" to "9.4% in 2017" - Total external debt stock projected at "31.2% of GDP" in EDPRS 2; public external debt "24.2% of GDP"; private debt "7.0% of GDP" in 2017 - FDI projected to rise from "2.3% of GDP in 2012" to "3.8% of GDP at the end of EDPRS 2" - Costing of EDPRS 2 (exact figures): - The implementation of EDPRS 2 has been costed at RWF "9,929 Billion" (total government expenditure during EDPRS 2) - Detailed government-allocable EDPRS 2 initiatives total: RwF "8,030 billion" (presented as RwF 8,030,493 million in Table 8.2) - Cost split (headline): - Cost of the initiatives linked to the thematic areas: RWF "4,738 billion" (4,738,026 million) - Cost of the initiatives in the foundation sectors: RWF "3,292 billion" (3,292,467 million) - Cost of support functions (such as wage bill, defence): RWF "1,899 billion" - Total government expenditure: RWF "9,929 billion" - Yearly thematic and foundational totals (RwF million, verbatim from Table 8.2): - Thematic Areas by year: 2013/14 "1,078,684"; 2014/15 "1,057,029"; 2015/16 "957,624"; 2016/17 "848,162"; 2017/18 "796,528"; Total "4,738,026" - Foundational Sectors by year: 2013/14 "644,321"; 2014/15 "627,897"; 2015/16 "638,727"; 2016/17 "669,328"; 2017/18 "712,193"; Total "3,292,467" - Total EDPRS 2 by year: 2013/14 "1,723,005"; 2014/15 "1,684,926"; 2015/16 "1,596,351"; 2016/17 "1,517,490"; 2017/18 "1,508,721"; Total "8,030,493" - Sectoral five-year highlights (exact totals from Tables): - Education five-year total: "1,583,676" (20% of total) - Agriculture five-year total: "1,508,233" (19% of total) - Health five-year total: "1,034,216" (13% of total) - Transport five-year total: "890,864" (11% of total) - WATSAN five-year total: "836,215" (10% of total) - Energy five-year total: "550,109" (7% of total) --- ### Financing strategy and priorities - New and innovative financing sources to be pursued: - increase external debt and FDI, encourage international capital flows, strategic government portfolio management, set up equity funds, expand Agaciro sovereign fund, attract Green Economy financing - Reliance on non-debt inflows (FDI, other foreign investment and remittances) to finance current account while maintaining Net Foreign Assets (NFA) at "four months of prospective imports" - Early sequencing principle: prioritise interventions yielding "fast foreign exchange gains or savings" (agriculture, construction, mining) in first year(s) --- ### Implementation, coordination, Monitoring & Evaluation (M&E) - Institutional arrangements: - Prime Minister’s Office: coordination of government programmes; works closely with MINECOFIN - Thematic Working Groups (TWGs), Sector Working Groups (SWGs), Joint Action District Forums (JADFs) to coordinate implementation, monitoring and evaluations - NISR: provide census and survey data, capacity support, meta-data compilation - M&E framework principles: Harmonisation; Accountability; Participation and Inclusiveness; Comprehensiveness; Manageability; Evaluability; Capacity Development - Monitoring architecture: - three levels: Thematic, Sector, District, with National EDPRS 2 Monitoring Matrix as core indicator set - mid-term assessment: "2015" (internal, managed by TWGs with MINECOFIN) - terminal evaluation: "2017" (independent evaluators contracted) - Key monitoring targets (selected, verbatim): - GDP per Capita: US$ "658" (BASELINE 2012); "837" (2015/16 TARGET); "1,000" (2017/18 TARGET) - Electricity generated: "110 Mega Watts" (BASELINE 2012); "349" (2015/16 TARGET); "563" (2017/18 TARGET) - Exports to GDP: "14.6 percent (1029.9 M$USD)" (BASELINE 2012); "21.1 percent (2,053.8 M$USD)" (2015/16 TARGET); "27.2 percent (3,401.5 M$USD)" (2017/18 TARGET) - FDI/GDP: "2.3 percent (159.8 M$US)" (BASELINE 2012); "3.5 percent (313.1 M$US)" (2015/16 TARGET); "4.5 percent (473.4 M$US)" (2017/18 TARGET) - Credit to the private sector/GDP: "15.6 percent" (BASELINE 2012); "18 percent" (2015/16 TARGET); "20.2 percent" (2017/18 TARGET) - Adult population accessing financial services: "72" percent (2015/16 Target); "80" percent (2017/18 Target) - Tax revenue/GDP: "13.6" percent (Baseline); "14.7" (2015/16 Target); "15.5" (2017/18 Target) --- ### District priorities and sequencing (selected examples) - City of Kigali priorities include affordable housing, dedicated bus lanes, Rapid Bus Terminal Corridor, land bank for affordable housing; specific targets: construct "30 km" asphalt and "100 km" stone paved roads; secure 17 km of land for Rapid Bus Terminals - Provincial and district highlights: - Northern, Southern, Western and Eastern Provinces list explicit agro-processing, road, tourism, and industrial park priorities with precise feeder/tarmac road targets (examples: Nyagatare feeder roads "300km"; Nyagatare tarmac roads "20km") --- Italic: Source — _cr13360 (EDPRS 2 excerpts and tables) as provided in the supplied content unit._ ### FOREWORD ............................................................................................................... ### FOREWORD ### Location - viii ### Notes - Entry in the document table of contents: "FOREWORD ......................................................................................................................... viii" *Source: _cr13360 - FOREWORD (as listed in the provided PDF table of contents).* ### FOREWORD ### FOREWORD ### Progress and national vision - Rwanda has made good progress over the last two decades since the genocide, benefiting from rapid economic growth, reduced poverty, more equality and increased access to services including health and education. - Progress strengthens belief that development ambitions towards the Vision 2020 can be achieved through concerted efforts. - The Second Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS 2) is described as a launch into the home straight of Vision 2020, confronting new challenges of ensuring greater self reliance and developing global competitiveness. - EDPRS 2 shifts the private sector to the "driving seat" of economic growth and poverty reduction; government focus will be on transforming the economy and alleviating constraints to growth and investment. - Emphasis on developing skills and competencies (particularly for youth), and strengthening platforms for community engagement and home-grown solutions. ### Executive summary — overarching outcomes and lessons - Past decade achievements: - Rwanda was the tenth fastest growing economy in the world during the decade from 2000. - A perfect developmental "hat trick" during EDPRS 1: sustained economic growth (8% average), poverty reduction (12% points), and a reduction in income inequality. - More than a million people lifted out of poverty. - Positive lessons from EDPRS 1: - Broad ownership of EDPRS aided success; EDPRS 2 integrates inclusiveness and sustainability. - Home-grown initiatives (e.g., Umuganda, Gacaca, Abunzi, Imihigo) strengthened delivery; scale-up and identification of innovations are integral to EDPRS 2. - Community-based solutions enabled fast-track, cost-effective implementation (examples: 9YBE classroom construction, Crop Intensification Programme (CIP), community-based health programmes); EDPRS 2 will scale this approach. - Use of ICT improved service delivery (online business registration, online filing of tax claims); ICT is critical for the knowledge-based economy under EDPRS 2. - Adequate institutional and legal frameworks with flexibility (e.g., RDB, REB, EWSA) proved effective; merging complementary institutions reduced duplication. Key reforms identified include National Employment programme, Urbanisation and Rural Settlements institutional framework, and the Investment process. - Shortcomings addressed in EDPRS 2: - Some sectors lacked exhaustive strategies; EDPRS 2 was developed with inputs from 30 District Development Strategies, City Development Plan for Kigali City, 16 Sector Strategies, and 4 Thematic Area Strategies. - Insufficient coordination and communication across sectors and between central and local government addressed by introducing Four Thematic Areas (Economic Transformation, Rural Development, Accountable Governance, Productivity and Youth Employment) and emphasising joint planning and cross-sectoral action. - Insufficient private sector involvement addressed by requiring each sector to identify and engage private sector players, refining Public Private Dialogue, and adopting private sector investment targets for line Ministries. - Need for stronger mainstreaming of cross cutting issues; EDPRS 2 considered guidelines from lead institutions on all seven cross cutting issues and will develop specific disaggregated indicators. - Weak M&E systems; EDPRS 2 provides stronger linkage between thematic, sector and district M&E, and plans an integrated electronic M&E system for District and National level. ### Rationale, challenges and opportunities - Challenges summarized: - Poverty and inequality remain high. - Land is pressured by increasing population density and demographic trends. - Growing youth share of population requires 200,000 jobs to be created each year. - Labour force characterized by low skills and productivity. - Private sector constrained by small scale and lack of suitable infrastructure. - Development delivery faces horizontal and vertical coordination challenges. - Opportunities summarized: - Favourable dependency ratio could provide a demographic dividend. - Increasing urbanisation expands demand for goods and services. - Domestic political and economic stability and an attractive regulatory environment support private investment. - Improving literacy and numeracy provide basis for a more skilled workforce. - Decentralised development modalities and traditional institutions provide platforms for citizen engagement. - Increased regional integration can expand market potential and economies of scale. - Rwanda's pro-activeness in environment mainstreaming positions it for green growth and investment. - EDPRS 2 addresses challenges and pursues opportunities through four Thematic Strategies (Economic Transformation, Rural Development, Productivity and Youth Employment, Accountable Governance) while continuing EDPRS 1 success stories through Foundational Issues. ### Thematic area priorities - Economic Transformation (target: accelerated economic growth 11.5% average) - Priority 1: Increase domestic interconnectivity via hard and soft infrastructure, meet private sector energy demand, increase access to public goods, and deepen key value chains. - Priority 2: Increase external connectivity and boost exports by building a new international airport, expanding RwandAir, finalising planning for a railway connection along the Central Transport Corridor to Dar-es-Salaam or to Uganda, transforming logistics, and strengthening export promotion. - Priority 3: Transform the private sector by increasing investment in priority sectors, targeting large foreign investors, increasing long-term savings, transforming the financial sector for increased access to long term international and domestic financing, and strengthening tax and regulatory reform to spur medium and large enterprise growth. - Priority 4: Transform economic geography by facilitating urbanisation and promoting secondary cities; develop Six Secondary Cities as poles of growth and centres of non-agricultural economic activities, invest in hard and soft infrastructure and strategic projects, and emphasize affordable housing; Kigali to continue as a regional hub. - Priority 5: Pursue a ‘green economy’ approach, including piloting a green city, piloting a model mine, attracting investors in green construction, focusing on green urbanisation and promotion of green innovation in industrial and private sectors. - Rural Development (target: reduce poverty from 44.9% to below 30% by 2018) - Priority 1: Integrated Approach to Land Use and Human Settlements — strengthen overall land use allocation and decentralised land allocation/management; revisit rural settlements to improve access to economic opportunities and basic services. - Priority 2: Increase Productivity of Agriculture — focus on irrigation, land husbandry, proximity advisory services for crops and livestock, and connecting farmers to agribusiness. - Priority 3: Enable Graduation from Extreme Poverty — monitor graduation through a database across social protection programmes, support financial products/services and literacy for the poorest, strengthen Umurenge SACCOs, improve coverage and targeting of core social protection programmes such as VUP, and link the poorest to economic activity via skills provision. - Priority 4: Connect Rural Communities to Economic Opportunity through Improved Infrastructure — interventions include a feeder roads programme, ICT expansion for rural areas, electrification, modern biomass and other cooking methods, and full coverage of quality water and sanitation. - Productivity and Youth Employment (objective: create at least 200,000 new jobs annually) - Priority 1: Develop Skills and Attitudes — review and reform national education curricula, establish Sector Skills Councils, strengthen TVET, internships, promote adult literacy and short course basic skills training, implement a tripartite funding system for on-the-job training, and a youth entrepreneurship mentoring programme. - Priority 2: Promote Technology — accelerate innovation via internet and mobile infrastructure and improve ICT skills. - Priority 3: Stimulate Entrepreneurship, Access to Finance and Business Development — increase off-farm employment and private sector-driven job creation; consolidate, rationalise, and expand business support programmes into an Integrated National Employment Programme. - Priority 4: Labour Market Interventions — improve labour market efficiency by assisting job seekers to match with job providers through Employment Service and Career Advisory Centres. - Accountable Governance (objective: improve service delivery and ensure citizen satisfaction above 80%) - Priority 1: Strengthen Citizen Participation and Demand for Accountability — use home-grown initiatives, ICT and radio for participation and development communication, strengthen media and civil society, and strengthen administrative decentralisation. - Priority 2: Improve Service Delivery — develop a customer-centred service delivery culture, design policies, and establish standards of Customer Services. ### Foundational issues (continued national priorities) - Macroeconomic stability: target public investment to priority investments that link to private sector growth, poverty and inequality reduction; pursue prudent macroeconomic policies. - Demographic issues: continue policies focused on sustainable population growth as evidenced by reduced fertility and population growth. - Food security and malnutrition: coordinate, strengthen and scale-up community-based nutrition programmes and information campaigns. - Literacy, early childhood development and basic education: aim for all infants and young children to fully achieve developmental potential; emphasize partnerships with private sector to increase education options. - Quality, demand and accessibility of primary health care: improve quality of health care services, including hospital management, while expanding geographical and financial accessibility. - Rule of Law, unity and reconciliation, security and stability: strengthen legal and policy frameworks, develop institutional capacity to respond to crime, support international and regional peacekeeping, and entrench community-based dialogue. - Strengthening effectiveness of public finance management: increase resource mobilisation from domestic and alternative sources, scale up Integrated Financial Management Information System implementation, and enhance capacity at National and District levels. - Consolidating decentralisation: deepen participatory, democratic, accountable local governance, build capacity for local service delivery, leverage regional integration, use ICT for efficient service delivery, and increase citizen empowerment. *Source: FOREWORD (EDPRS 2) — Executive Summary* ### 35. These issues have been mainstreamed in all the sector strategies and district plans over ### _cr13360 - 35. These issues have been mainstreamed in all the sector strategies and district plans over ### Mainstreamed cross-cutting issues (EDPRS 2) - Capacity building: prioritising institutional and individual capacity development within sectors and Districts to deliver under each of the thematic areas and foundational issues. - Environment and climate change: mainstreaming environmental sustainability into productive and social sectors and reducing vulnerability to climate change. - Gender and family: reducing poverty levels among men and women, malnutrition, reducing gender based violence and other related conflicts at both family and community level. - Regional integration: explored for increased access to trade, finance, legislation, health regulation, agricultural standards, environmental safeguards and education qualifications. - HIV/AIDS and NCDs: regular sensitisation regarding HIV, voluntary counselling, testing, prevention of mother to child transmission, condom distribution. - Disaster management: investment in rapid response disaster management equipment, early warning systems and awareness campaigns. - Disability & Social Inclusion: accessible infrastructure and information; media practitioners will develop standards for reporting news accessible to people with disabilities. ### Consultations and stakeholder engagement - Sector Strategic Plans and District Development Plans were elaborated simultaneously to ensure coherence among national planning documents and alignment with MDGs, 7YGP and Vision 2020. - EDPRS 2 theme: “uruhare rwacu, mu bukungu bwacu”. - Wide citizen consultations conducted through forums such as Umuganda and focus group discussions. - EDPRS 2 Communication Strategy under the theme: "GIRA IJAMBO" included: - a customised EDPRS 2 website (www.edprs.gov.rw), - toll free SMS line (2018) for contribution of ideas, - nationwide road shows with brochures, banners, billboards, radio and TV Spots, - a theme song calling the youth to participate. - Communication activities planned to continue for at least two years of EDPRS 2 implementation to enhance public understanding and ownership. - Focus group discussions and consultative meetings held with youth, private sector, civil society (international and local), academicians and students. - National Steering Committee (Ministers, Province Governors and the Mayor of Kigali City) provided overall guidance, assisted by a technical steering committee (Permanent Secretaries and Development Partners). ### Implementation, coordination and priorities - EDPRS 2 implementation requires adequate sequencing (short term to medium term), inter-relatedness of actions across thematic, sector and district levels, and clear assignment of responsibilities and roles. - Emphasis on coordination with non-state actors and centrality of private sector participation and national ownership. - Implementation priorities: - foreign exchange savings (exports and expansion of available products on local market to reduce import bill), - increasing private sector investment involvement, - improving efficiency in the raising and use of public funds, - rapid delivery in the public sector. - Central government: responsible for coordination of Government programmes and alignment of national policies with local priorities. - Local government: responsible for coordination of EDPRS 2 implementation at district level. ### Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) - EDPRS 2 framework includes definitive M&E Plans, drawing on EDPRS 1 experience and self-assessment. - Monitoring Plan designed to track progress at national level and at the three levels of the EDPRS 2 conceptual framework (Thematic, Sector and District levels) to ensure evaluability during and at end of implementation. - Clear indicators defined and subsequent implementation plans to guide annual planning and budgeting. - Development of an electronic M&E system to facilitate collection, tracking and analysis of information. - Evaluative function to be strengthened with a series of priority analytical work identified to inform EDPRS 2 implementation. ### Costing of EDPRS 2 - The implementation of the EDPRS 2 has been costed by Districts, Sectors and Thematic areas. The cost of delivery is estimated at RWF 9,929 Billion. - EDPRS 2 costs RWF - Cost of the initiatives linked to the thematic areas 4,738 billion - Cost of the initiatives in the foundation sectors 3,292 billion - Cost of support functions (such as wage bill, defence) 1,899 billion - Total government expenditure during EDPRS 2 RWF 9,929 billion ### Financing and macroeconomic implications - Investment as a percentage of GDP must increase from 21.3% in 2013 to 29.7% in 2017 to finance EDPRS 2. - Public investment trajectory: - Public investment will increase at the beginning of the period to 15.0% of GDP in 2015, then fall thereafter as private sector becomes the driver of growth. - Private investment trajectory: - Private investment is expected to increase throughout the period reaching 15.4% of GDP in 2017. - By end of the period private investment is expected to take over as the main source of investment. - New and innovative financing sources to be pursued: increase in external debt and foreign direct investment, encouraging international capital flows, strategic government portfolio management, setting up of equity funds, expanding the Agaciro sovereign fund and attracting Green Economy financing. - Reliance on high non-debt inflows (FDI, other forms of foreign investment and remittances) to finance the current account deficit without resorting to exceptional financing while maintaining Net Foreign Assets (NFA) at four months of prospective imports of goods & services. ### Shaping Rwanda's future — context, goals and achievements - EDPRS 2 is a five year plan to accelerate progress and shape future development, building on EDPRS 1 policies and increasing private sector engagement. - Overarching Goal of EDPRS 2: “Accelerating progress to middle income status and better quality of life for all Rwandans through sustained growth of 11.5% and accelerated reduction of poverty to less than 30% of the population” - EDPRS 2 is guided by revised Vision 2020 targets (adopted May 2012). Key Vision 2020 targets include: - GDP per capita of $1240 - Avg. GDP growth of 11.5% - Poverty reduced to 20% - Extreme poverty eliminated - 1.8 million new off-farm jobs - 35% of population urban - Exports Growth of 28% p.a. - Private sector takes dominant share of investment - Performance under EDPRS 1 (2008–2012): - Average real GDP growth: 8.2% annually - GDP per capita growth: 5.1% per year - Real GDP growth by year: 2008 11.2%, 2009 6.2%, 2010 7.2%, 2011 8.3%, 2012 8.0% (average 8.2%) - Real GDP per capita growth by year: 2008 8.1%, 2009 3.2%, 2010 4.2%, 2011 5.2%, 2012 4.9% (average 5.1%) - Sectoral contributions and performance: - Services: averaged 10.0% per year, produced around 52% of national output, accounted for just over 53% of total GDP growth during EDPRS 1. - Industry: averaged 9.8% per year, produced 15.4% of national output, contributed 20% of total growth; construction grew at 15.0% annually. - Agriculture: grew at 5.4%, contributed 32.7% of GDP and 28% of total growth. - Poverty and social indicators under EDPRS 1: - During 2005-11 annual economic growth averaged 8% annually, headcount poverty and extreme poverty ratios both fell by nearly 12 percentage points, taking a million people out of poverty. - Infant, under-five and maternal mortalities decreased by 20-30% during PRSP period; associated health MDG targets for 2015 had already been achieved or were on track by 2012. - Note on PRSP period outcomes: - PRSP (2002-6) saw poverty fall by 2.2 percentage points; extreme poverty fell by 4.2 percentage points between 2001 and 2005 but still afflicted more than one third of the population; Gini coefficient rose from 0.47 to 0.51. *Source: EDPRS 2 chapter and executive summary text provided in the content unit.* ### 1.21 Strong performance of the productive sectors was underpinned by several key ### _cr13360 - 1.21 Strong performance of the productive sectors was underpinned by several key ### Drivers of strong productive-sector performance - Prudent and stable macro-economic and market-oriented policies sustained business confidence. - Improved and enforced regulatory frameworks facilitated business activity and provided transparency in government-private sector interactions. - A strong anti-corruption stance simplified and reduced the cost of business transactions. - High levels of consumption and public investment, supported by international aid, fuelled economic activity. ### Business environment and rankings - World Bank’s Doing Business Report for 2012: Rwanda progressed from 58th to 45th position in ease of doing business rankings worldwide. - Rwanda ranked as the second most reformed economy in the world over the last five years, the third easiest for doing business in Africa, and the first in the East African Community (EAC). ### Investment composition and trends - Gross investment averaged 22.5% of GDP from 2008 to 2012 (EDPRS 2012 target: 24.4%). - Public investment reached 12.8% of GDP in 2012. - 2012 gross investment breakdown (USD amounts shown in source): - Total gross investment: USD1,562 million - Public investment: USD876 million - Domestic private investment: USD686 million - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): USD160 million (increase after hovering around USD100 million in three out of the four years) - Observation: Increasing volumes of public investment were not able to leverage significant additional FDI during this period. ### Population, growth and urbanisation - 2012 provisional population: 10.5 million (2002 Census: 8.1 million) ⇒ annual population growth rate of 2.6%. - Population density increased from 321 to 416 persons per sq.km between 2002 and 2012 (highest in Africa). - Rwanda has the fastest rate of urbanisation among African countries (World Bank): proportion of people living in urban areas increased nearly threefold between 1990 and 2011. ### Poverty, inequality and employment outcomes - Poverty headcount ratio: declined from 56.7% in 2005/06 to 44.9% in 2010/11. - Rural poverty fell from 61.9% to 48.7% (2005/06 to 2010/11). - Factors supporting poverty reduction: improved agricultural incomes, off-farm job creation, reduction in household sizes, public and private transfers. - Gini coefficient: declined from 0.52 in 2005/06 to 0.49 in 2010/11 (below 2000/01 level of 0.51). - Agricultural sector: covers more than 70% of employment. - Use of fertilisers tripled in tonnage terms from 2006 to 2011. - Share of marketed agricultural output increased from 21.5% to 26.9%. - Number of non-farm jobs increased by 50-60%. - Female-headed households: 47% are poor compared to 44.9% of all households. - Job creation need: demographic trend necessitates 200,000 jobs to be created each year for new entrants into the workforce. - Current total of waged jobs in the formal economy: 396,000. - Poverty incidence differentials: - Rural poverty: 48.7% (2010/11) - Urban poverty: 22.1% (2010/11) - In Rwanda’s poorest district, Nyamagabe, 73% of people live below the poverty line. - 62% of waged farm workers are in poverty, compared with 22% of waged off-farm workers. ### Human development and non-income poverty indicators - Population covered by 2012 census and surveys: - Infant mortality: declined from 86 to 50 infant deaths per 1,000 live births (2006 to 2011). - Maternal mortality: declined from 750 to 476 per 100,000 live births (2006 to 2011). - Net enrolment for primary school: 96.5% (net enrolment for girls higher than boys). - Gross enrolment for lower secondary school increased from 10% to 48.6%. - Access to clean drinking water and sanitation increased in all provinces to 71% to 75% coverage respectively. - Electrification: 13% of households covered (compared with 3% in 2006). - Financial exclusion: adults financially excluded fell from 52% in 2008 to 28% in 2012. - Adults served by formal finance institutions: increased from 21% in 2008 to 42% in 2012. - Women in Parliament: 56.3% (world leader in proportion of women in Parliament). - Total Fertility Rate: declined from 6.1 children per woman to 4.6 (2006 to 2010). - Women aged 15-45 using modern contraceptive techniques: 47.7% (target 44 for 2012). - Population covered by health insurance schemes: 89% (target 90 for 2012). ### EDPRS1 targets and achievements (selected indicators and exact figures) - Real GDP growth (% annual): Baseline 2006: 6.5; Target 2012: 8.1; Actual 2011/12: 8.2 (2008-12) - Export growth (% annual): Baseline 10; Target 15; Actual 2008-12: 25.1 - National investment (% of GDP): Baseline 16.3; Target 24.4; Actual 2011/12: 22.5 - Share of population living in poverty (%): Baseline 57; Target 46; Actual 2011/12: 44.9 - Share of population living in extreme poverty (%): Baseline 37; Target 24; Actual 2011/12: 24.1 - Private Sector credit (% of GDP): Baseline 10; Target 13.9; Actual 2011/12: 14.5 - Financial depth (broad money/GDP): Baseline 20; Target 22.5; Actual 2011/12: 21.3 - Gross secondary school enrolment: Baseline 10; Target 30; Actual 2011/12: 38.0 - Use of mineral fertiliser (MT): Baseline 14,000; Target 47,600; Actual 2011/12: 46,000 - Area under irrigation (hectares): Baseline 15,000; Target 24,000; Actual 2011/12: 24,131 - Households with access to electricity (number of households): Baseline 70,000; Target 270,000; Actual 2011/12: 308,326 - Electricity generation (off/on grid, MW): Baseline 45; Target 120; Actual 2011/12: 110 - Classified national road network in good condition (%): Baseline 11; Target 63; Actual 2011/12: 68 - ICT penetration rate (%): Baseline 26; Target 40; Actual 2011/12: 44 - Infant mortality (deaths per 1,000 live births): Baseline 86; Target 70; Actual 2011/12: 50 - Maternal mortality (deaths per 100,000 live births): Baseline 750; Target 600; Actual 2011/12: 476 - Access to safe drinking water (% of population): Baseline 64; Target 83; Actual 2011/12: 74 - Access to hygienic sanitation: Baseline 38; Target 63; Actual 2011/12: 74.5 - Share of population expressing satisfaction/confidence in decentralised governance (%): Baseline 85; Target 100; Actual 2011/12: 68 ### Constraints on private sector growth and structural transformation - Private sector composition: dominated by micro and small enterprises (99.5% of firms). - Skills and labour productivity constraints: - Number of formal sector firms reporting inadequate skills as a major constraint has doubled since 2006. - 45% of large firms (more than 100 employees) reported an inadequately educated workforce as a constraint in 2011. - 2009 National Skills Audit reported an average 61.5% skills deficit and severe skills gaps in the private sector. - Infrastructure constraints: - Electricity cost and capacity: $0.24/kwh in Rwanda compared to $0.15/kwh in Kenya, $0.17/kwh in Uganda, and $0.05/kwh in Tanzania. - Current installed capacity: 110MW against an anticipated minimum demand of 563MW in the medium term. - Logistics and connectivity constraints for trade: substantial dependence on neighbours and ports (Mombasa and Dar es Salaam) with costly connectivity. ### Emerging challenges for EDPRS 2 - Persistent high poverty, especially in rural areas: rural poverty at 48.7% vs urban 22.1% (EICV). - Significant variation in poverty reduction across districts and provinces; depth of poverty remains for many rural households. - High inequality compared to other Sub-Saharan Africa countries despite recent reductions in the Gini coefficient. - Land scarcity and smallholder structure: - Current population density: 416 people per square km (NISR 2012). - Smallholders hold four to five plots with mean land size ~0.59 hectares and median 0.33 hectares. - Job creation imperative: need for a step change in job creation (200,000 per year) and structural transformation to higher productivity non-agricultural activities. - Service delivery performance and coordination: - Satisfaction with public services rated at 64.5% on average for all key sectors. - EDPRS 2 delivery challenges require enhanced coordination and improved performance in both public and private sectors, and engagement mechanisms for private sector, citizens and communities. ### Opportunities for EDPRS 2 - Achievability: development targets remain achievable if opportunities are sustainably exploited. - Demographic dividend: - Rwanda has entered its demographic window of opportunity due to falling dependency ratios. - Fertility decline from 6.1 to 4.6 children per woman (2006 to 2010) supports demographic potential. - Realisation requires creation of productive employment and development of a competent and skilled youth workforce. - Urbanisation: - Rapid urbanisation presents opportunities for increased off-farm employment and city development. - Low current urbanisation level offers an opportunity to proactively manage urban growth and mitigate risks of urban sprawl, divided cities, high urban unemployment and high urban poverty. *Source: _cr13360 (EDPRS1/EDPRS2 section content).* ### 1.46 A strong investment climate including stability, peace and security in the ### _cr13360 - 1.46 A strong investment climate including stability, peace and security in the ### Investment climate, stability and export prioritisation - A strong investment climate including stability, peace and security in the country is a foundation for growing investment and trade. - Continued reforms in the doing business environment have laid the foundations for Rwanda to develop into a top investment and trade destination within Africa. - The prolonged period of peace and stability provides reassurance to investors. - To reinforce this opportunity, Rwanda will need to identify, prioritise and strengthen viable export sectors. ### Functioning decentralised systems and community engagement - Functioning decentralised systems provide a valid platform for citizen service delivery and participation. - Rwanda has a well functioning and detailed decentralised system that goes to community level (Umudugudu). - Community-level engagement includes programmes like Ubudehe (social protection) and Umuganda (community works). - Existing home-grown systems can be strengthened and used as opportunities for real engagement with the community where community development and policy related issues can be discussed via appropriate feedback mechanisms. ### Regional integration and connectivity - Regional integration provides an outlet for Rwanda's landlocked nature. - Rwanda is part of regional communities including the East African Community (EAC), Common Market for East and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the Countries of the Great Lakes (CEPGL), opening a host of markets and opportunities if Rwanda invests in the right infrastructure for increased connectivity. - Regional integration provides a forum for Rwanda to address and advocate for implementation of priority projects like the regional railway. ### Environment, climate change and green investments - Rwanda is a leader in environment and climate change awareness and is a natural centre for green investments. - Adoption of the National Green Growth and Climate Change Adaptation Strategy highlights the centre stage this issue has in GoR policy making. - Rapid movement to ensure sustainability of interventions through environment mainstreaming, ecosystem protection and rehabilitation is recommended to tap into the growing international pool of green investments. ### Financial inclusion and economic monetisation - Growing financial literacy and inclusion is a pathway to increased savings and reduced vulnerability. - With more than 70% of the population now using a form of financial services, the monetisation of the economy is increasing. - Increased use of financial services positions the country to increase savings, integrate into regional and global markets, and break cycles of persistent and generational poverty. - Broader financial inclusion enables more of the population to invest in education and entrepreneurship while reducing dependence. ### Principles of EDPRS 2 - EDPRS 2 is organised around four thematic areas: - Economic transformation for accelerated economic restructuring and growth striving for middle income country status; - Rural development to address needs of the vast majority and ensure sustainable poverty reduction and rural livelihoods; - Productivity and Youth Employment to ensure growth and rural development are underpinned by appropriate skills and productive employment, especially for youth; - Accountable Governance, to underpin improved service delivery and citizen participation in the development process. - EDPRS 2 is built on five principles: - Innovation: emphasising new ways of thinking, working and delivering because the status quo will not be adequate to achieve Rwanda’s ambitious targets. - Emerging priorities: identifying thematic strategies which encompass new priorities, including new ways of doing business, to drive the achievement of Vision 2020 targets. - Inclusiveness and Engagement: creating ownership of development at all levels and providing learning and feedback mechanisms to improve solutions. - District-led Development: creating strong, mutually supporting linkages between district and sectoral strategies, and supporting administrative standardisation and efficiency. - Sustainability: ensuring that programmes and targets achieved from EDPRS 2 are sustained over the long term in their economic, social and environmental dimensions. ### Five lessons from EDPRS 1 (Box 1.1) - Ownership by a wide range of stakeholders at national level has been a key factor of success; EDPRS 2 integrates inclusiveness and sustainability as driving factors. - Home-grown initiatives (Umuganda, Gacaca, Abunzi, Imihigo, etc.) turned into success stories and scale-up of such solutions is integral to EDPRS 2 with focus on identifying innovations. - Community-based solutions enabled fast-track, cost-effective implementation and increased demand for accountability (examples: 9YBE construction of classrooms, Crop Intensification Programme (CIP), community-based health care programmes); this approach will be scaled up. - Use of ICT solutions improved service delivery (online registration of businesses, online filing of tax claims); ICT is important for a knowledge-based economy as EDPRS 2 targets take Rwanda to the brink of middle income status requiring greater service delivery performance. - Adequate institutional and legal frameworks with flexibility to change (e.g. RDB, REB, EWSA) have been effective; merging complementary institutions reduced duplication and improved coordination. Key areas identified for reform include: the National Employment programme, the Urbanisation and Rural Settlements institutional framework, and the investment process. ### Thematic areas, foundational issues and district focus - Thematic areas will coalesce multiple sectors around common objectives to increase likelihood of effective delivery; thematic areas and sub-themes are presented in Table 1.5 and elaborated in following chapters. - Foundational Issues span critical areas: macro-economic stability, food security and malnutrition, early childhood development and basic education, quality and accessibility of primary healthcare, decentralisation and public financial management (see Chapter 6). - EDPRS 2 places equal focus on Sector Strategic Plans and District Development Plans and on the interface between them to tailor development to differential needs across the country; district transformational priorities are in Annex 4. ### Summary of Thematic Areas and Priorities (from Table 1.5) - Economic transformation for rapid growth: - Increasing the domestic interconnectivity of the economy through investments in hard and soft infrastructure - Increasing the external connectivity of the economy and boosting exports - Transforming the private sector by increasing investment in priority sectors - Transform the economic geography of Rwanda by facilitating and managing urbanisation and promoting secondary cities as poles of economic growth - Pursuing a ‘green economy’ approach to economic transformation - Rural Development: - Integrated approach to land use and rural settlements - Increasing the productivity of agriculture - Enabling graduation from extreme poverty - Connecting rural communities to economic opportunity through improved infrastructure - Productivity and youth employment: - Improving skills and attitudes - Applying technology and ICT - Enhancing entrepreneurship and business development - Improving labour market interventions - Accountable Governance: - Strengthening citizen participation in delivery and demand for accountability - Service delivery ### Economic Transformation thematic area — objective, definition and strategy - Economic Transformation Objective for EDPRS 2: “Sustain rapid economic growth and facilitate the process of economic transformation by increasing the internal and external connectivity of the Rwandan economy. This will be achieved through improved infrastructure, exports, and more integrated supply-chains, while meeting demand in the energy sector, planting the seeds of a green economy, and better managing the process of urbanisation" - Definition: Economic Transformation is the process of sustained high economic growth during which fundamentals change from a traditional, low productivity agricultural base to a more industrial, diversified and high productivity urban economy; it is a multi-decade process. - Key lessons informing the strategy: - Governments play a pro-active role in facilitating and accelerating economic transformation. - There is no single recipe for success; home-grown and sometimes unconventional policies are important. - Economic transformation is characterised by greater international integration, increased investment and savings, a stable macro-economic environment, commitment to market-driven resource allocation, increased urbanisation, and attention to environmental issues. - Targeting and prioritisation are important: governments should identify priority sectors where they can improve hard and soft sector-specific infrastructure. ### Strategic framework and targets for Economic Transformation - Overall targets for the Economic Transformation thematic area for EDPRS 2 include: - (i) 11.5% per annum real growth over the duration of EDPRS 2; and - (ii) a change in Rwanda’s economic structures reflected through increased investments, exports, savings, private sector credit, and manufacturing, accompanied by an increase in urbanisation. - Strategy premises: with limited public resources and sector/location-specific constraints, the public sector must catalyse private sector growth through general incentives and targeted investments in soft and hard infrastructure in: - a) priority sectors of the economy, both existing and emerging; and - b) geographic areas of opportunity. ### Priority sectors and geographic focus - Priority sectors approach: interventions and investments prioritised in: - (i) existing export-oriented sectors (address known sector-specific constraints through targeted soft and hard infrastructure to maintain/stimulate export growth); - (ii) emerging sectors, particularly in the knowledge economy (require intensive, targeted engagement with potential investors to identify required public investments and attract FDI); - (iii) potential new sectors for Greenfield investments (GoR will earmark funding and build institutional capacity to explore market potential and develop clear value-propositions). - Prioritisation will not preclude investment into other emergent critical sectors. - Geographic focus categories: - i. Domestic: select geographic poles of investment based on assessment of economic potential of chosen secondary cities to reshape economic geography and urbanisation. - ii. Regional: prioritise deeper regional integration within the EAC and focus investments on increasing connectivity to Rwanda’s economic neighbourhood including DRC. - iii. International: deepen investment and export promotion ties with East and Southern Asia while continuing to invest in ties with existing financial hubs to diversify export destinations and grow inward FDI. ### Five priority areas for Economic Transformation (overview) - To meet the vision and achieve high-level targets, the thematic area has five priorities (described in subsequent sections of source). These priorities depend on foundational and cross-cutting factors including macroeconomic stability, human capital, access to education and health, gender mainstreaming, managing the demographic dividend, strong public financial management and good governance (see Chapter 6). *Source: EDPRS 2 — selected sections from the provided PDF content.* ### 2. Economic Transformation ### _cr13360 - 2. Economic Transformation ### Vision and priority-setting approach - Economic Transformation vision for EDPRS 2: “Sustain rapid economic growth and facilitate the process of economic transformation by increasing the internal and external connectivity of the Rwandan economy. This will be achieved through improved infrastructure, exports, and more integrated supply-chains, while meeting demand in the energy sector, planting the seeds of a green economy, and better managing the process of urbanization” - Transformation pre-requisites and characteristics: - 1. Stable macro-economic environment - 2. Increased investment and savings - 3. Greater international integration - 4. Commitment to market driven processes for resource allocation - 5. Increased urbanization - 6. Address environmental issues - Key strategic challenges that could jeopardize transformation: - 1. Unmet energy demand - 2. Limited and over-concentrated exports - 3. Low FDI - 4. Weak logistics system - 5. Limited availability of long-term savings and credit - 6. Urbanization pressures - Prioritization framework: - A. Sectors: (1) Existing export-oriented sectors, (2) Emerging high-potential sectors, (3) Future areas of opportunity - B. Geographic: (1) Domestic – secondary cities, (2) Regional – EAC & DRC, (3) International – East & South Asia ### Five Priority Areas for Economic Transformation (overview) - Priority 1: Increase the domestic interconnectivity of the Rwandan economy through investments in hard and soft infrastructure - Priority 2: Increase the external connectivity of Rwanda’s economy and boosting exports - Priority 3: Transform the private sector by increasing investment in priority sectors - Priority 4: Transform the economic geography of Rwanda by managing urbanization and promoting secondary cities - Priority 5: Pursue a ‘green economy’ approach to economic transformation ### Priority 1 — Increase domestic interconnectivity (hard and soft infrastructure) - Rationale and three main interventions: - (i) meet the energy demand of the private sector; - (ii) increase access to public goods and resources in priority sectors of the economy; - (iii) deepen the integration of key value chains. - EDPRS 2 proposed interventions to achieve objectives: - a. Increase Rwanda’s electricity generation capacity to 563 MW, leveraging large-scale private sector investment; - b. Give preferential access to electricity, water, roads, and land to priority sectors of the economy and/or large investors; - c. Increase inter-linkages between large firms and suppliers in priority sectors, leading to increased investments by large firms in upstream activities. - Outcome 1.1: Increased electricity generation capacity to 563 MW leveraging large-scale private investment - Two measures: - (i) development of a clear roadmap for investment in electricity generation (long-term view; prioritise incremental improvements rather than a single project that might materialise in 5-7 years); - (ii) new approach to leveraging private sector investment in the sector. - Roadmap objectives: - (i) meet demand for electricity using a balanced mix of energy sources; - (ii) gradually eliminate subsidies to the electricity tariff, freeing up public funds for other investments; - (iii) prioritise public investments with clarity on timing and value for money; - (iv) reduce the cost of energy to facilitate business. - Public finance role to de-risk projects: - (i) proving technical and economic feasibility of geothermal, hydro, peat and methane (expected to cost over $100m in public investment), financed by an energy development fund with donor support; - (ii) put in place systems to effectively project demand for electricity; - (iii) restructure procurement following Energy Policy (2012) guidelines to a more competitive and transparent strategy, minimise unsolicited proposals, and encourage local private sector involvement. - Outcome 1.2: Accelerated access to electricity, water, roads and land to priority sectors and/or large investors - Key interventions: - (i) create a task force with authority to fast-track provision of public services and infrastructure for priority investment projects; - (ii) expand targeted economic zones, including finalisation of the Kigali Special Economic Zone (SEZ) programme with an associated Technopole, and development of four provincial industrial parks; - (iii) develop a clear mechanism to guide land allocation for investment projects via collaborative process between investors, Rwanda Development Board (RDB), relevant Ministries, districts and land owners. - Priority actions: - Fast-track provision of electricity, water, roads and land coordinated and monitored by an inter-ministerial task force including RDB. - Invest in four provincial industrial zones in Huye, Rusizi, Nyabihu and Bugesera. - Finalise SEZ programme including a Technopole in Kigali SEZ to facilitate investor access to public services, attract large firms, and reshape economic geography outside the capital. - Outcome 1.3: Increased private sector investment targeted at strengthening value chain inter-linkages in priority sectors - Interventions: - (i) Establish a Business Linkages Challenge Fund (BLCF) to allocate grants on a competitive basis to large businesses that propose to strengthen business linkages with SMEs—aims to improve competitiveness, investment and jobs; - (ii) Establish a supplier development programme led by RDB focused on hospitality and tourism, retail, construction services, agribusiness and mining sectors to address supply constraints via company support and FDI promotion. ### Priority 2 — Increase external connectivity and boost exports - Context and challenges: - Exports increased rapidly during EDPRS 1, more than doubling between 2009 and 2011 in nominal terms, yet exports of goods and services remained low as a share of GDP: 13% of GDP in 2011. - Trade deficit reached 19% of GDP in 2011. - Main external sector issues: - (i) low external connectivity (airport near saturation, no railway to Mombasa or Dar es Salaam, deficient logistics); - (ii) costs due to geographic isolation and low connectivity (high transportation costs and non-tariff barriers); - (iii) export vulnerability due to concentration on few traditional exports. - EDPRS 2 objective: achieve 28% annual real exports growth by prioritising interventions below. - Prioritised interventions: - a. Transform external connectivity by building a new international airport, expanding RwandAir, and finalising planning for a railway connection; - b. Transform the logistics system with strategic focus on exports and re-exports to Burundi and Eastern DRC; - c. Invest in soft and hard sector-specific infrastructure to accelerate growth in commodity and tourism sectors and facilitate export orientation of manufacturing and agro-processing firms. - Outcome 2.1: Increased trade through improved air and rail services - Air and rail priorities for 2012-2018: - (i) complete phase 1 development of a major new international airport in Bugesera by 2017; - (ii) invest in ambitious expansion of RwandAir during the EDPRS 2 period. - Finalise planning and procurement for a railway connection with construction to start before the end of EDPRS 2. - Bugesera International Airport, phase 1: - Estimated to cost more than US$600m (phase 1); - Phase 1 will include a 4.2km runway and cargo and passenger terminals capable of handling 3 million passengers annually. - RwandAir expansion targets (EDPRS 2 period): - Make RwandAir a profit making company by 2018; - Expand annual turnover from current US$46m to more than US$350m during the same period; - Expand fleet from 7 to 12 aircraft including 3 wide bodied aircraft; - Increase destinations from current 13 to at least 25; - Achieve and maintain IOSA certification; - Significantly strengthen branding. - Railway link: - Finalise feasibility, planning and procurement for railway by 2017 with objective to start construction before the end of EDPRS 2; engage EAC partners to finalise construction agreements. - Outcome 2.2: Transformed logistics system focused on exports and re-exports to Burundi and Eastern DRC - Proposed interventions: - (i) establish an integrated logistics system based on a Kigali Logistics Platform linked to Regional Logistics Centres; - (ii) improve sea-land logistics by building off-dock container depots; - (iii) finalise One-Stop Border Posts at all Rwandan border posts to facilitate large and small-scale cross border trade; - (iv) increase efforts to remove Non-Tariff-Barriers (NTBs) on the Northern and Central Corridors. *Source: _cr13360 - 2. Economic Transformation* ### 2.33 The key to transforming Rwanda’s logistic system will be the establishment of ### 2.33 The key to transforming Rwanda’s logistic system will be the establishment of ### Integrated logistics system: Kigali Logistics Platform (KLP) and Regional Centres - Central element: Kigali Logistics Platform (KLP) with cross-docking features for higher value products. - KLP functions: - Serve DRC, Burundian and Rwandan traders. - Integrate with the Kigali SEZs. - Be supported by an e-freight exchange system that provides information on truck-loads to operators, improving efficiency and reducing coordination failures that lead to trucks travelling empty. - Private sector involvement: Centres to be established in conjunction with the private sector through PPP arrangements. - Linkages: KLP will be directly linked to two Regional Logistics Centres in Rusizi and Nyabihu. - Service scope: Distribution and logistics services at selected locations for transit goods arriving from Mombasa and Dar es Salaam with final destination in Rwanda, Eastern DRC or Burundi. ### Sea–land logistics: off-dock container depots in Mombasa and Dar es Salaam - Rationale: Inefficiencies of the Mombasa and Dar ports significantly increase the cost and time for Rwandan exports. - Intervention: Build off-dock inland container depots in Mombasa and Dar es Salaam on land owned by Rwanda to counter long port times. - Expected benefits: - Opportunity to store and engage in value added services on products while waiting for on-dock processing. - Management of the container depots to be outsourced to a private operator. ### Border facilitation: One Stop Border Posts (OSBPs) - Planned coverage: OSBPs at every Rwandan border. - Expected effects: - Facilitate both large and small-scale cross border trade. - Reduce transportation costs and time for cross-border exports and exports using land-sea routes through the Northern and Central Corridors. - Context: OSBPs are an interim measure prior to full implementation of the EAC common market for goods where trade is to be free-flowing. ### Non-tariff barriers (NTBs): monitoring and institutionalisation - Identified NTBs: port delays, weighbridges, corruption and lack of harmonised standards. - Policy action: - Institutionalise monitoring of NTBs within MINICOM and MINEAC. - Continue working with EAC countries and institutions to steadily reduce NTBs on the northern and central transport corridors. - Better position Rwanda to negotiate removal of NTBs through the EAC forum and bilateral agreements with neighbouring countries. - Expected outcome: Reduced transportation costs and delays related to exports, imports and re-exports. ### Outcome 2.3: Accelerated Growth of Exports — strategic interventions - Five major interventions: 1. Review institutional set-up for export promotion and strengthen the export promotion department at RDB. 2. Overhaul Rwanda’s mining sector via a new mining law, a new mining model contract for investors, and targeted investments in exploration. 3. Invest in a major tea expansion programme, increasing the area under production by 18,000ha by 2018. 4. Large and systematic expansion of extension services and capacity building in the coffee sector, modelled on successful domestic approaches. 5. Finalise the Kivu belt and invest in developing a tourism circuit. - Export promotion institutional reform: - New institutional set-up to be finalised by the start of EDPRS 2. - Based on shared targets and clear responsibilities between RDB and line Ministries/agencies. - Strengthen RDB’s export promotion department with greater human and capital resources. - Specific programmes: - A US$5m export development fund to be managed and tested by RDB. - Continuation of the Trade Linkages Programme. - Use of Export Councils to formulate export ‘vision’ for sub-sectors. ### Sector-specific measures: mining, tea, coffee, knowledge-based sectors, tourism - Mining sector: - Finalise and implement a new Mining Law prioritised under EDPRS 2. - Overhaul concessions strategy and merge prospecting and exploration licenses. - Commit to increasing investments in exploration in prospective target areas (PTAs), including petroleum exploration, based on a clear exploration strategy. - Improve transparency and comply with international best standards (including environmental standards). - Tea sector: - Target: expand tea production area by 18,000ha and double tea production in the country by 2018. - Planned allocation: 14,000ha of Greenfield sites plus 4,000ha in areas surrounding existing or developing factories. - Ongoing construction: five factories currently being built on 7,500ha of new tea plantations. - Coffee sector: - Address low productivity caused by sub-optimal agronomic practices and diseases/pests. - NAEB extending training to 10,000 coffee farmers per year using the Farmer Field School (FFS) approach. - Intensify capacity building and research; target coffee washing stations and extend the 2010 Turnaround Programme. - Knowledge-based and light manufacturing sectors: - Proactively target Business tourism, BPO, financial services, and light manufacturing (including IT assembly). - Leverage Rwanda’s multilingual advantage to attract BPO and financial services employers for youth. - Support ongoing research to inform regulatory reforms, skills, technology, and infrastructure needs. - Tourism: - Complete Kigali Convention Center and Kivu Belt Tourism Master Plan. - Kigali Convention Center to be operational in 2014 with world class conference facilities. - Finalise Kivu Belt road to: - Connect secondary cities to domestic markets and Eastern DRC. - Spur investments in tourism along the Kivu Belt. - Create a national tourism circuit linking Virunga National Park, Lake Kivu, Nyungwe Forest and other sites. ### Priority Area 3: Transform the private sector by increasing investment in priority sectors - Private sector baseline statistics: - In 2011, Rwanda’s formal private sector employed 4% of the country’s labour force. - In 2011, only 0.5% of firms had more than 30 employees. - Proposed public-sector contributions during EDPRS 2: a. Strengthen the investment process to proactively target large foreign investors in priority sectors. b. Accelerate structural changes in the financial sector to increase credit to the private sector to 30% of GDP by 2017. c. Strengthen the business environment through tax and regulatory reform to spur medium and large enterprise growth and attract large investors. ### Outcome 3.1: Increased private sector investment and financing — institutional and promotion reforms - Objectives: - Radically increase foreign direct investment (FDI) in priority sectors, especially by large firms. - Key interventions: 1. Strengthen institutional set-up to lead the investment process and clarify roles between RDB and other Ministries/agencies. 2. Transform and better fund investment promotion with a revamped strategic focus. 3. Finalise and implement the New Investment Code. - Principles for process reform: - RDB remains lead institution on large foreign investment (PPPs and general FDI); line ministries and implementation agencies play an active role. - Sector-related investment promotion targets are joint responsibilities of ministries, implementation agencies and RDB; targets reviewed in quarterly meetings co-chaired by RDB and the respective Ministry. - Incentive structures focus on attracting quality investors, not only investment value. - Distinct institutional arrangements for PPP projects versus general FDI. - Avoid duplication and ensure consistency across government. - Include a mechanism to resolve internal issues and a task force to fast track provision of public services and investments for priority projects. - Investment promotion enhancements: - Create an Investment Promotion Taskforce and a core Marketing Division within RDB with significantly enhanced resources. - Taskforce responsibilities: oversee investment promotion activities; manage outsourced agents with commercial attachés and diplomats; allocate funding for sector feasibility research. - Create a research framework for targeted research into new or emerging sectors. - New Investment Code: - To be finalised, advertised and implemented during EDPRS 2. - Options under consideration: sectoral or geographic fiscal incentives; fiscal or alternative incentives for exporters; incentives around capital gains and dividend taxation; incentives to encourage firms to establish international or regional headquarters in Kigali. - Ensure domestic firms are not disadvantaged. ### Outcome 3.2: Financial sector reforms to raise long-term savings and credit - Objective: increase credit to the private sector to 30% of GDP by 2018. - Measures to increase long-term savings: - Enactment of the Pension Law to establish basis for private pension plans and improve financial sustainability of the RSSB. - Enactment of the Trust Law to change provisions for collective schemes and create new investment options. - Consolidate RSSB by strengthening governance and administration; improve investment management and performance; strengthen risk and cash management. - Develop the bond market ensuring regular issuance of government bonds to give banks greater access to long-term funds. - Measures to stimulate credit to the private sector: - Test and then exponentially increase the size and scope of the current BDF credit guarantee programme. - Create a creditor profile electronic system to enable commercial banks to verify potential lenders’ credit history. - Position Rwanda as a regional financial service centre — policy options to be considered: - Favourable corporate income taxation for financial service firms. - Review withholding tax on interests and dividends for firms in the financial sector. - Review capital gains taxation. - Pro-actively attract private equity funds for regional investments. - Create a task force to coordinate efforts. ### Outcome 3.3: Strengthened business environment through regulatory reform - EDPRS 2 focus areas to enhance business environment: - Tax reform. - Double taxation agreements. - District level business environment reforms. - Improving the insolvency process. - Facilitating free flow of highly skilled labour. - Strengthening public-private dialogue mechanisms. *Source: EDPRS 2 (excerpts provided in the referenced content unit).* ### 2.54 Tax reform with the aim of providing additional incentives for investment is a ### _cr13360 - 2.54 Tax reform with the aim of providing additional incentives for investment is a ### Tax reform and investment incentives - Priority under EDPRS 2: tax reform to provide additional incentives for investment, to be carried out with the passing of a new investment code. - Additional research to be completed by December 2013 to identify potential interventions: - (i) enact revenue enhancing reforms to restructure the corporate and personal income tax system, leading to a reduction in rates but also an increase in the tax base; - (ii) reform the turnover tax rate for SMEs — currently SMEs opting for the simple lump-sum turnover tax face very high marginal tax rates, making this taxation system highly regressive and putting them at a significant disadvantage; - (iii) review VAT, withholding tax and non-deductible expenses policies to ensure that they do not put domestic firms at a disadvantage but rather encourage investment. - Institutional reform: creation of Tax Business Advisory Panels to provide businesses an opportunity to voice concerns over tax administration procedure and suggest practical alternatives. ### International tax arrangements and investor incentives - Policy: pursue double taxation agreements with all strategic partners to position Rwanda as an attractive financial services investment destination. - Interaction with Investor Code: combined with targeted initiatives under the new Investor Code (e.g., fiscal incentives for firms in priority sectors), double taxation agreements aim to improve Rwanda's attractiveness as an investment destination. ### District-level business environment reforms - EDPRS 2 focus: district-level reforms to alleviate licensing constraints, access to land and construction permits. - RDB to study options to apply national level business reforms at the district level; research to be completed by December 2013, resulting in a clear, timed and targeted plan. - Areas for further research and interventions: - (i) reducing the time and cost for the delivery of operating permits at the district level, potentially through creation of RDB One Stop Centres (OSCs) within district offices; - (ii) better coordination of the forced closure of a business across government institutions; - (iii) accelerating the process of land acquisition for private investors; - (iv) accelerating the implementation of OSCs for construction permits in districts. - Service delivery target: districts One Stop Centres to manage and issue construction permits within 30 days. ### Insolvency reform and Doing Business - Rationale: a good rate of business failure can be an economic asset if bankruptcies do not tie up large amounts of capital and create ‘blockages’ in the financial system. - Programme of reform should include: - expediting bankruptcy procedures; - developing a framework for out-of-court debt negotiations; - developing methods for insolvency laws. - Expected outcome: improved insolvency regime to strengthen Rwanda’s Doing Business brand. ### Labour mobility and skilled labour attraction - Policy continuation and strengthening: improve free flow of highly skilled labour from within and outside the EAC. - Achievements and scope: - Rwanda’s immigration policy has attracted high skilled labour in finance, professional services and manufacturing. - EAC Common Market provisions: free movement of labour for citizens of EAC countries; free trade in services allows sole traders to move and set up in each Member State. - Working visas: expedited for those outside the EAC with skills in areas where Rwanda is in deficit. ### Public Private Dialogue (PPD) - Enhancement of PPD forums to review sector-specific regulations and investments. - Mechanism: extensive, regular consultation with private sector stakeholders; RDB to act as secretariat. - Representation: cross section of the private sector and senior Ministry level officials. ### Transforming economic geography and urbanisation priorities - EDPRS 2 treats urbanisation as a standalone sector. - Key challenges: increasing income segregation and overconcentration in Kigali; regional imbalances from small and limitedly developed secondary cities; weak coordination of urban planning and management. - Three high level objectives: - Integrated development planning and management; - Development of Secondary Cities as poles of growth; - Establishment of financing and supply options for affordable housing. ### Integrated development planning and management - Develop a functional planning system coordinating central and local government actors with clearly defined roles, participatory implementation and strong monitoring. - Integrate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies into spatial and economic planning. - Revise urbanisation and rural settlement policy and urban development and management procedures to support ultra-modern settlements centred on economic opportunities. - Establish and strengthen One Stop Centres in all Districts to ensure quick service delivery and to monitor development on the ground. ### Secondary cities as poles of growth - Objective: support network of secondary cities while developing Kigali as a regional hub. - Six Secondary cities to be developed as regional centres of growth and investment: Huye, Muhanga, Musanze, Nyagatare, Rubavu and Rusizi. - Strategic investments: interconnectivity of the road network linking these urban areas and secondary cities to rural areas; strengthen local revenue collection systems. - Service gaps: many public services available in Kigali (inner-city public transport, business registration services, specialised healthcare services, multiple schooling options) are not widely available in other cities. ### Kigali integrated public transport and BRT development - Three-phase multimodal transport strategy for Kigali City: - (i) Phase 1: improve existing modes of public transport by piloting standardization of scheduled bus services and an integrated ticketing system under a route franchising approach; - (ii) Phase 2: soft and hard infrastructure to introduce high occupancy vehicle lanes (HOV), establish more than 90km of Dedicated Bus Lanes (DBLs) in Kigali City, and scale-up pilots related to scheduling and ticketing; - (iii) Phase 3: design a detailed Bus-Rapid-Transit (BRT) system and finalise a 17km BRT corridor by 2018. ### Financing and supply options for affordable housing - Housing demand: - demand highest among low income earners making up more than 90% of the demand; - Kigali City projected to require at least 35,000 housing units annually. - Mobilisation of large scale private investment and funding mechanisms to support mortgage finance industry via collaboration between BRD, RHA and RSSB. - Policy options to ensure access to viable financing include: - (i) a BDF guarantee scheme for affordable housing loans; - (ii) housing loan products for SACCOs to be provided by BRD based on a peer group guarantee scheme as well as traditional collateral; - (iii) making operational the affordable housing fund; - (v) exploring the possibility of floating a “housing bond” issue; - (vi) mobilizing and linking housing cooperatives to large scale private investors; - (vii) engaging in large scale PPP housing projects. ### Green economy approach to economic transformation - EDPRS 2 incorporates a ‘green economy’ approach to reduce economic costs and exploit new ‘green’ economic opportunities, allocating significant resources to high impact interventions that reduce costs, create jobs, and have positive environmental impacts. - Two promoted areas: green urbanisation and promotion of green innovation in industrial and private sectors. - Connection to other themes: links to urbanisation, exports and private sector development, with potential markets for environmental goods and services. ### Green urbanisation: analysis, institutions, and pilot - Urbanisation projection: 35% of the population envisaged to live in urban areas by 2020. - Initial analytical work to build the case for green urbanisation to include: - 1) information on existing initiatives; - 2) cost benefit analysis of potential design options for developing green urban areas (i.e. types of technologies to be promoted); - 3) analysis of policy and incentive mechanisms in the sector (i.e. regulatory structure for incentivising the industry); - 4) analysis of key capacity constraints to the implementation of green urbanisation; - 5) analysis of potential institutional structures for implementing green urbanisation (e.g. roles of local government and city authorities); - 6) initial feasibility study for locating a green city pilot. - Centre of Excellence on green urbanisation to be established with mandate including: - 1) support research and development on green building materials and technologies, establish local supply chains, ensure sustainable land-use planning, ensure infrastructure resilience to climate change, and develop conceptual master plans for green urbanisation; - 2) build skills and capacity in the construction sector; - 3) communication and outreach linking government, researchers, the private sector and developers to identify cost-effective incentives for promoting green infrastructure, technology and construction; - 4) support in definition of construction standards with the Rwanda Bureau of Standards; - 5) identification of financing opportunities, developing business plans and proposals (linking to FONERWA); - 6) build stronger relationships between MININFRA, RHA and industry and trade sector. - Institutional form: Centre could operate as a limited profit or for-profit centre attached to a university with architecture and environment programme and environmental engineering facilities (KIST or Umutara). - Regulatory development: MININFRA lead to develop regulatory instruments (e.g. energy efficiency requirements in building codes; grants and rebates for renewable technology etc.) in collaboration with responsible Ministries and institutions. - Pilot green city flagship: - Activities: 1) feasibility study; 2) development of master plans demonstrating environmental impacts combined with economic sustainability; 3) identification of funding sources (linking to FONERWA); 4) initiating the pilot (by 2018). ### Environment and Climate Change Innovation Centre and green innovation - Proposed Environment and Climate Change Innovation Centre mandated to promote transformational green innovation in industrial and private sectors with scope to: - 1) support research and development through links to industry and academia in Rwanda and internationally; - 2) promote technology transfer in priority sectors through business advice and training; - 3) link innovation with finance by identifying international funding sources, supporting proposal development and providing seed funding (FONERWA to play an instrumental role); - 4) provide analyses and information on market and sector trends. - Institutional links: build on and link to National Industrial Research and Development Centre, the Cleaner Production Centre, and the Centre of Excellence under Outcome 5.1. - Policy role: propose reforms to incentivise green technologies and innovation (examples: import duty exemption on green products, tax rebates). - Pilot activities: support pilots of innovative technologies likely to provide large-scale environmental and economic benefits with technical and financial support through the Centre and FONERWA respectively. - Sector-specific pilot consideration: feasibility studies to develop a pilot ‘model’ mine fully funded through green investment that incorporates renewable energy systems, water treatment systems, forestry out-grower schemes and a local training centre. *Source: EDPRS 2 excerpts in the supplied content unit* ### 2.81 Priority Area Outcomes together with Interventions are at Annex 1. ### _cr13360 - 2.81 Priority Area Outcomes together with Interventions are at Annex 1. ### Introduction and Rural Development Objective - Rural Development Objective for EDPRS 2: Sustainable poverty reduction is achieved through broad-based growth across sectors in rural areas by improving land use, increasing the productivity of agriculture, enabling graduation from extreme poverty, and connecting rural communities to economic opportunity through improved infrastructure. - Definition: Rural development is the process of improving the quality of life and economic wellbeing of people living in rural areas; primary objective is to reduce rural poverty and strengthen social cohesion and reduce inequality. - Emphasis: Broad-based, multi-sectoral, inclusive growth recognizing the predominance of the rural labour force in agriculture; need for secure land rights, access to markets and resources, and an enabling environment for businesses and individuals. ### Key findings on rural poverty and livelihoods - Population and distribution: - Around 9.1 million people, i.e. 85% of the total population, live in rural areas. - Rural poverty: 48.7%; Urban poverty: 22.1%. - Inequality: - Gini coefficient has reduced over the last five years to below 2000/2001 levels, but remains high. - Land: - Around 1.4 million hectares of arable land. - Rural land is nearly 98% of total land area; around 54% classified as arable; urban area is 1.5% of total country surface (RNRA 2012). - Smallholders hold an average of four to five plots with a mean land size average of approximately 0.59 hectares, median 0.33 hectares. - 36% of households own 6% of the farm land, with an average of only 0.11ha per household. - Gender and labour: - Women provide the bulk of labour in the crop sector and function mainly at subsistence level with insufficient skills, market access, and control over land and agricultural facilities. - Livelihoods and poverty incidence: - Poverty is highest (76.6%) among households who obtain more than half their income from working on other people’s farms. - Next-poorest group: households obtaining 30% or more of income from farm wage work (76.2%). - Contribution of off-farm income to rural households has increased, particularly wage and self-employed income. - Agricultural commercialization: - In 2011 households sold around 25% of their output compared with 18% in 2005. - Migration and linkages: - It is estimated that 19% of the population migrated within the country during EDPRS 1. - Higher family wealth increases likelihood of migration. ### Strategic Framework and Poverty Projections - Current headcount poverty ratio: 45%. - Current extreme headcount poverty: 24%. - EDPRS 2 targets: headcount poverty 30%; extreme headcount poverty 9%. - Projections: - Status quo projection: headline poverty will reach 32% by 2017/2018, just above the 30% goal. - On current trends, extreme poverty will reduce to 14% by 2017/18. - Meeting MDG-style target by 2015 would show a faster reduction (red line in Figure 3.1 referenced). - Four priority focus areas for Rural Development (summarised): 1. Land use and management (integrated approach to land use and human settlements) 2. Increasing the productivity of agriculture 3. Access to finance and social protection (enabling graduation from extreme poverty) 4. Rural infrastructure (roads, on-grid and off-grid energy options, water and sanitation) — connecting rural communities to economic opportunity through improved infrastructure ### Four Priority Areas — summaries and interventions - Priority Area 1: Integrated Approach to Land Use and Human Settlements - Challenge: manage and administer land allocation, land appropriation, monitoring, land leasing to private investors, and land disputes among smallholders. - Need to strengthen: (i) land use allocation powers and (ii) decentralised land allocation and management processes. - Settlement patterns: - Proportion in human settlements (planned, unplanned or agglomeration): around 60%. - Scattered/isolated rural settlement: approximately 40% of rural households. - Imudugudu defined as planned settlements of 100–200 houses on 10 to 20 hectares. - Only 9% of villages surveyed have layout plans that assist housing and infrastructure development. - Main reasons for not moving to settlements (MINALOC 2012): distance from agricultural plots, poverty, and lack of planning of the newly proposed site. - Pull factors to promote settlement: access to economic opportunities, safe water and sanitation, electricity, and social services (schools and health centres). - Short-term costs of resettlement: cost of moving, distance to farmland, construction of new housing, possible social difficulties in the new location. - Priority Area 2: Increase the Productivity of Agriculture - Rationale: Limited scope to expand cultivable land; improving productivity of agricultural land is critical. - Approach: shift from subsistence to commercialised agriculture, harness private sector potential, focus on irrigation and land husbandry, proximity advisory services for crops and livestock, and smallholder aggregation farming models to connect farmers to agribusiness. - Priority Area 3: Enabling Graduation from Extreme Poverty - Role of social protection: stabilise assets, incomes and capabilities in the poorest households but insufficient alone to enable graduation. - VUP expansion: Vision 2020 Umerenge Programme (VUP) expansion will target the poorest sectors in districts. - Graduation strategy: stronger linkages to complementary public programmes and private sector job opportunities; investment in on- and off-farm income-generating activities; improved financial access and education. - Priority Area 4: Connecting Rural Communities to Economic Opportunity through Improved Infrastructure - Critical public goods: feeder and secondary roads to improve marketability of agricultural produce. - Electrification programme: twin strategies for universal access, facilitating 100% of the population to be connected through on-grid and off-grid solutions. - Off-grid options: solar and biogas cited as most economical and sustainable for poor households; supporting biomass and other modern cooking sources. - ICT and water and sanitation to reach rural communities through public and private investment. ### Outcome 1.1: Improved land rights and land administration - Secure land ownership drives agricultural investment and income generation; formal land titles increase likelihood of investment in soil erosion protective measures, particularly among female-headed households. - Land markets: buying and selling of land has become widespread in the last five years; local land markets are highly active. - 84% of households feel they have the right to sell any part of their land or use it as a guarantee (World Bank 2011). - Constraints: limited capacity of local government (district, sector, cell and village level) to support rural population in land management. - Policy and legal framework: - National Land Policy requires secure tenure rights for all landholders. - Registering land holding is mandatory in Rwanda according to the Organic Land Law. - Land Tenure Regularization (LTR) Programme provided for full legal recognition of rights for the 11 million land parcels in Rwanda, giving title certificates to land holders. - By the end of 2012, LTR has demarcated and adjudicated (text ends). *Source: _cr13360 - 2.81 Priority Area Outcomes together with Interventions are at Annex 1.* ### 10.4 million parcels. Ten million of these are recorded in the database, 8.5 million parcels ### _cr13360 - 10.4 million parcels. Ten million of these are recorded in the database, 8.5 million parcels ### Land administration and secure tenure - 10.4 million parcels are in scope. - Ten million of these are recorded in the database. - 8.5 million parcels have been through an objections and corrections phase. - Over 4 million parcel titles are approved for issue. - Policy actions: - Complete land registration processes for the 10.4 million parcels and issuance of leases under EDPRS 2. - Connect the national land registry to decentralised land administration institutions and district land bureaus to web based systems. - Build capacity in land administration at district level. - Connect land registration to mortgage registration processes to facilitate access to finance. ### Integrated district land-use planning and rural settlements - National Land Use Master Plan approved by Cabinet in 2011 and adopted by Parliament in 2012. - District and village level land use planning has not yet been completed. - Objectives and measures: - Facilitate investment and empower districts to design economic futures via effective district-level land use planning. - Provide spatial planning tools for agriculture, industry and commercial development in rural areas. - Strengthen local level functions with decentralisation support (technical assistance and budgetary resources). - Use district land use plans to coordinate public infrastructure (water, electricity) with growing settlements. - Develop regulations for settlement in rural and urban areas, including construction standards, guidelines for amenities and appropriate density guidelines. - Develop the ‘green village’ concept for grouped settlement planning focusing on environmental sustainability and local-level climate resilience. ### Implementation framework for district planning - A framework for coordinated land use planning through District Land Use Plans will be implemented. - One Stop Centres (OSCs) and Land Bureaus will be supported to design and oversee implementation of district land use plans. - Relevant ICT equipment and land mapping tools will be provided. - Policy coherence to align central and district plans including: - National Land Use and Development Master Plan (2010) - National Settlement Policy (2009) - Strategic Transport Master Plan (2012) - National Urban Housing Policy (2004) - EARP II (2013-2017) - Irrigation Master Plan (2010) - Water and Sanitation Policy (2012) ### Village-level planning, enforcement and housing - Village layout plans to be designed and implemented through a community-led process, guided by District Land Use Plans. - Communities empowered to design settlements with technical support; citizens incentivised to live in productive well-maintained settlements. - Technicians in OSCs and Sector/District Land Bureau offices to support cell layout plan development integrating water and energy. - Compensation and support for households in vulnerable zones or on land needed for large-scale infrastructure will be required. - Guidelines for land use planning and monitoring for districts will be developed; districts and sector administration responsible for enforcing plans. - Accessing quality and affordable housing: - Cost-effectiveness and availability of improved local construction materials will be pursued. - Government will provide some pilot housing sites to support growth of rural quality settlements. - Support construction through the private sector, cooperatives and other institutions to enable more off-farm jobs. ### Agriculture: priorities and productivity - Agriculture is central to poverty reduction and inclusive growth in EDPRS. - Constraints and statistics: - Expansion of cultivable land is limited; improved productivity is paramount. - Agriculture labour productivity is very low. - 68% working less than 36 hours in a week (high under-employment). - Strategic shifts: - Move from subsistence to commercialised agriculture, promoting high-value crops leveraging climate, water and labour endowments. - Progressive shift to enhance private sector role across value chain functions, while public sector focuses on policy, monitoring, regulation, partnerships and infrastructure. - Public sector support via training programmes, risk-reducing financial guarantees, shared cost of advisory services, investments in hillside irrigation and terracing, and research. ### Irrigation and land husbandry targets and measures - Irrigation potential: - Irrigation can triple crop production compared to rain-fed agriculture. - EDPRS 2 target: develop a total of 100,000 ha under irrigation: - 65,000 ha will be marshland. - 35,000 ha will be hillside irrigation. - Public sector investment targets: - MINAGRI will develop 60,000 additional ha of irrigated land (two-thirds marshland and one-third hillside). - Private sector targets: - 20,000 ha of land will be availed for private sector irrigation development. - Government will facilitate private irrigation schemes (a minimum of 25 ha and a maximum of 500 ha). - A unit within MINAGRI, working with RDB, will be set up to facilitate private investments in irrigation. - Operation and maintenance emphasis: - Water Users Associations (WUA) training for cooperative operation and maintenance. - Effective O&M critical due to high investment costs and relatively low maintenance expertise. - Land husbandry: - 90% of cropland is on slopes of 5% to 55%. - Prioritise scaling up progressive and radical terraces, integrated soil fertility management, erosion control, agro-forestry and soil research. ### Advisory services, inputs and extension - Outreach and quality: - Estimated 32% of households receive information through advisory channels (BTC 2012). - Poor quality of delivery or information is a key constraint. - Private agro-inputs distribution: - Promote sustainable private agro-inputs distribution and sales networks. - Experience shows charging smallholder farmers the full cost of fertiliser plus around a 10-15% handling margin, depending on the extension package, is feasible. - This approach has produced a rapidly expanding client base, high repayment rates and good farmer retention. - Government expenditure on input subsidies will decrease, though they may have a residual role as social protection to the poorest. - Seed sector: promote private sector seed systems, sell seeds to farmers, invest in quality seed certification and inspection services. - Farmer Field Schools (FFS) and learning platforms: - Scale up public investment in FFS to reach at least 150,000 farmers. - Train FFS trainers and facilitators, particularly women. - Examine fee collection for FFS to increase sustainability. - Farmer Promoters and Animal Health Workers: - Introduce community-level model farmers and animal health workers based on community health worker model. - Enhance training of government extension agents (sector and district agronomists and vets). - Use market-orientated, diverse training methods beyond fact sheets. - Initiate District Agricultural Platforms for low-cost peer-to-peer exchanges. ### Farming models, aggregation and links to agro-processing - Need to connect smallholders to value chains and investment opportunities; focus on quality, quantity and reliability. - Models to be promoted: - Cooperatives and bulk aggregation. - Contract farming as a way to aggregate and market smallholder production; government to educate parties and promote partnership policies to mitigate risks. - Nucleus Estate Farming where a large nucleus farm supports surrounding out-growers with high-yielding varieties, machinery rental/leasing, training and guaranteed purchase. - Consolidated Land Rental and corporate farming models used by private sector. - Post-harvest management: - Invest in drying, processing and storage management to transform smallholders into commercial agents. - Government will explore pilots with processors to connect farmers to agribusinesses and large-scale investors. *Source: _cr13360 - 10.4 million parcels. Ten million of these are recorded in the database, 8.5 million parcels (PDF)* ### 3. Rural Development ### 3. Rural Development ### Priority Area 3: Enabling Graduation from Extreme Poverty - Target: reduce households in extreme poverty from 24% (2011) to less than 10% by end of EDPRS 2. - Profile of the extreme poor: larger households, livelihoods predominantly waged farm work, many with no land or very small landholdings, low levels of literacy. - Literacy reference: Those in quintile 1: 57.6% of those aged 15 years or more and 75.6% from 15 to 24 years of age; quintile 3: 67.6% and 83.6% respectively. - Social protection concept in Rwanda has four elements: - Protective: provides essential support to those living in poverty. - Preventive: safety net to prevent falling into poverty. - Promotive: supports investment so people can pull themselves out of poverty. - Transformational: aims to improve social status and rights of the marginalised, particularly women. - Food insecurity correlation: CFSVA 2012 — food insecure households tend to have small landholdings and be headed by women, elderly and uneducated. ### Outcome 3.1: Increased and sustained graduation from core social protection programmes by connecting economic opportunities and financial services - Graduation requirements and enablers: - Improvements in quality of public services. - Activities to enable access to jobs and investments, including skills training. - Commitments to tackle discrimination and secure basic rights and entitlements. - Financial education and empowerment of women. - Flagship programme VUP (Vision 2020 Umurenge Programme): - Extremely poor VUP beneficiaries access combinations of direct support, public works and financial services to help them become less poor. - Exit criterion: households exit VUP direct support or public works once they move out of Ubudehe category 2 (proxy for movement out of extreme poverty). - Post-exit supports: VUP financial services, complementary programmes and market-based credit. - Financial inclusion and services: - Of those unbanked, 80% claim to have insufficient money to justify a bank account. - VSLAs and MFIs provide stepping stones to formal inclusion and basic financial literacy (cash-flow management). - 80% financial inclusion target for 2017. - Products for rural clients: Mobile Money Transfers (MMT), agent banking and micro-insurance; legal/policy framework on transaction limits and different categories of MMT will be improved. - SACCOs: - SACCOs account for 22.3% of adults using its products and services. - Priorities to ensure sustainability: - Consolidating and reducing risk: small Umurenge SACCOs may be voluntarily moved into District SACCOs. - Supporting higher lending: strengthen capital for agricultural and non-agriculture cooperatives. - Provide Umurenge SACCOs with better access to the payment system and interbank services. - Evaluate district SACCOs for branch network and sustainability. - BNR will review its Regulation on the Organisation of Microfinance Activity to strengthen requirements in priority areas. - Harmonisation Policy 2012 actions for efficiency gains: - Improving targeting and exit guidelines for social protection programmes. - Implementing updates and redefine Ubudehe categorisation. - Poverty and impact surveys to understand poverty in Rwanda. - Well publicised and accessible appeals and complaints mechanisms. - Raising community awareness on targeting procedures and entitlements. ### Outcome 3.2: Improved targeting and effectiveness of social protection interventions - VUP coverage under EDPRS 1: - Expanded to reach the poorest households in 180 sectors with direct support and 150 sectors with public works by 2012/2013. - VUP support reached approximately 5% of the population; significant numbers of extreme poor still not benefited. - Monitoring graduation and database development: - Household graduation will be monitored via a single database across social protection programmes to track progress, reduce fragmentation, and avoid duplication. - Aim: have the social protection M&E system functional by 2015/2016. - Coverage and targeting scale-up: - Government seeks to double coverage of those in extreme poverty receiving direct support and public works from 5% to 10% of the population. - Targeting improvements will use district poverty headcount data and strengthen Ubudehe categorisation. - Poorest districts and sectors will receive coordinated and targeted support. ### Priority Area 4: Connecting Rural Communities to Economic Opportunity through Improved Infrastructure - Road network: - Rwanda has 14,000 km of national, district, feeder and urban roads; road density is 0.53km of road per square km. - Main national paved roads are relatively high quality; unpaved roads quality is generally poor. - Electricity and energy: - Only 4% of rural households use electricity as the main source of lighting (EICV3). - Connected rural households consume below 30kWh/year/capita. - Comparative consumption figures: - Sub-Saharan African average: 478 kWh/year/capita. - Rwandan households consume on average about 42 kWh/year/capita. - Energy for cooking: over 90% of rural households use biomass in the form of wood fuel. - Typical rural household energy needs: cell phone, radio and lights — suitable for solar and micro-grid solutions. - ICT and water/sanitation: - Mobile phones: an estimated 45% of households (EICV3) own mobile phones. - Water supply and sanitation: critical for preventive healthcare and socio-economic development; women/girls bear more cost of distant water sources. ### Outcome 4.1: Quality road network and rural feeder roads extended - Transport impacts and losses: - Farmers within 7-10km of a main road receive 85-160% higher price for their produce than those further away (OTF 2010). - Estimated farmer losses due to lack of feeder roads: USD40-106 million per year (OTF 2009). - Production response: areas with feeder road programmes increased production by 81% compared to 15% in non-feeder road areas (OTF 2010). - Road condition summary (Transport Sector Strategy 2012): - National Paved Roads: Total length 1,172 Km; Good Condition 97.5%. - National Unpaved Roads: Total length 1,688 Km; Good Condition 39.9%. - Overall National Roads (paved + unpaved): Total length 2,860 Km; Good Condition 63.5%. - District Roads Class 1: Total length 1,836 Km; Good Condition 32.6%. - Feeder road programme targets and implementation: - Upgrade targets during EDPRS 2: - 2,550 km of district Class 2 feeder roads. - 7,000 km of farm to market roads. - Programme priorities: connect poorly connected areas with high agricultural production potential; promote local labour, materials, equipment and finance; training for small-scale contractors and supervisors; use local labour-based approaches such as HIMO. - Community capacity: train 400 communities in HIMO public works construction, operation and maintenance. - Road quality target: increase roads in good condition from 37% to 60% over EDPRS 2. - Transport services and modal diversification: - Increase scheduled kilometres of rural bus routes from 1,600km in 2012 to 8,100km in 2017. - Reduce length of unpaved road network from 12,675km to 11,768km through upgrading works. - Improve quality of unpaved road network in good condition from 11% (2012) to 39% in 2017. - Studies for 3 ports in Lake Kivu to be completed; assess navigability for Akagera and Rusizi. ### Outcome 4.2: Access to electricity for the rural population - Electrification strategy: - EDPRS 2 promotes twin strategies: on-grid and off-grid to facilitate 100% population connection through modern energy sources. - Off-grid solutions may be more economical and sustainable for low-demand, dispersed settlements. - Electrification Access Rollout Programme (EARP): - EARP will construct the backbone of the power supply system to rural areas and align generation capacity and demand to achieve an efficient tariff. - Initial focus on viable clients who can make productive use of energy and can afford cost-covering connection fees. - Approximately 48% of the total population will be within feasible range of the grid. - For remaining households (over 1.2 million), off-grid solutions (solar products or micro-grids powered by micro-hydro) are cost-effective options. - EARP household connection target: around 45% of households with direct connections by 2017. - Network extension objective: connect industrial, mining, agriculture and commercial opportunities to the electricity grid; reduce per-connection costs as network covers large rural centres. *Source: _cr13360 - 3. Rural Development* ### 3.71 But rapid growth in private sector solar products will be encouraged. The ### _cr13360 - 3.71 But rapid growth in private sector solar products will be encouraged. The ### Off-grid solar dissemination and private sector engagement - EARP phase 2 includes off-grid provision for the approximately 52% of rural households who may be out of range of the national grid during the next five years. - Target dissemination and sales through a large-scale awareness programme of solar systems (up to 1.2 million units). - Cost signals in the market: - High-quality lantern with phone charging costs around USD50. - Home solar system costs around USD200. - Policy actions: - Review regulatory environment, importation duties, and standards on solar products where appropriate. - Provide clear information on EARP II to encourage off-grid producers to target clients in off-grid areas. ### Off-grid micro-hydro generation - Micro hydropower projects will serve communities isolated from the national grid but with hydro potential. - Trade-offs: - Micro-hydro provides higher levels of power than solar systems. - Micro-hydro entails high investment and maintenance and operation cost. - Policy actions: - Encourage local and international investors to invest in micro-hydro power projects through improved incentives to exploit local energy resources. ### Energy education and household decision-making - Government will provide energy education to sensitize rural populations on relative costs and benefits of alternative technologies so households can make informed decisions. - Facilitation for areas that will be off-grid in the next five years to access affordable community-level alternatives. ### Biomass sourcing, sustainable use, and carbon finance potential - Current reliance and market size: - Over 85% of Rwanda’s primary cooking energy source comes from biomass. - Internal wood market is worth more than USD150 million. - Firewood and agricultural residues are used by 86% of the population as the primary fuel for cooking. - According to EICV 3, 50% of urban households use charcoal compared to 3.7% of rural households. - Some 49% of the retail value of charcoal, sold in Kigali, stays in rural areas and 51% is used to transport and distribute the charcoal product (MARGE 2008). - Problems: - Cooking efficiency is low in rural households; less than 50% of households use improved cooking stoves. - Biomass trade lacks clear regulation, which can sometimes stifle trade. - Policy actions: - Support and regulate biomass sources to ensure sustainable supply of wood. - Plant high yielding trees such as eucalyptus in areas with no competing productive land. - MININFRA and MINIRENA to ensure balance between forest protection and wood supply. - Support rural communities in wood production through training and workshops in seed handling, tree nursery management, forest harvesting, wood processing, timber drying and forest extension. - Carbon financing: - Biomass use, from biogas systems to improved cooking stoves, represents important potential sources for carbon financing. ### Biogas, alternative biomass sources, and private sector innovation - Program expansion: - Biogas Programme for households and Institutional Biogas programme will be expanded and delivered at the district level. - Opportunities and needs: - Biogas digesters represent an important long-term opportunity if managed properly. - Need to encourage private sector innovation to help expand this sub-sector. - Alternative fuels: - Peat, rice husks (paddy consists of 20% husk and 80% rice) and coffee husks. - Agricultural residues can use wood stoves. - The market is currently under-developed in Rwanda but has seen large growth in Africa as a whole. ### Improved energy-efficient cooking stoves rollout - Expected fuel savings: - Fuel consumption (cost) for improved cooking stoves may be 30-70% lower than for traditional stoves. - Distribution target and model: - Aim to deliver 400,000 improved cook stoves to Ubudehe Categories 1 and 2. - Distribution model integrates community based workers to deliver the product together with training packages. - Stoves to be distributed at an affordable cost to target households. - Private sector companies to be involved in the value chain from production to distribution and marketing. - Linkage to investing and testing green technologies and utilising green financing opportunities. ### ICT, market information, and rural connectivity - Rationale: - ICT allows rural people to connect to social, employment and trading opportunities; sector is private sector led. - Actions: - Encourage private sector to design ICT services for rural areas, especially mobile phone based systems. - Facilitate mobile money products and mobile phone sales to allow rural households to communicate and conduct cashless transfers in rural areas or between rural and urban areas. - Promote mobile phones with radio and internet services for knowledge generation. - Agriculture information systems: - E-soko phase 2 will provide farmers with timely (daily) agriculture and livestock market price information as well as other services for farmers. - Private sector to be engaged to develop more products for the agriculture sector. ### Water and sanitation for rural communities - EDPRS 1 achievements: - Access to clean water with improved sources of drinking water has reached 71% of the population, a 7 percentage point improvement since 2005/2006. - Sanitation services (through public and household latrines) reached 74.5% of the population. - Regional disparities: Kigali above 90% access to clean water; some parts of the Eastern and Western Province below 60%. - EDPRS 2 goal: - Ensure universal access to water and sanitation. - Quality and access actions: - Assist districts to plan, design, finance and implement water infrastructure projects. - Explore community involvement and private sector management in distribution alongside increased public investment. - Aim to ensure that households across rural areas in Rwanda are within 500m of an improved water source. - Sanitation actions: - Improve household sanitation coverage for remaining households and communities through local capacity building and public investments for certain public buildings such as schools and markets. - District sanitation plans to promote improved planning and resource allocation. ### Productivity and youth employment — overview and strategic priorities - Key challenges: - High levels of underemployment in rural areas. - Insufficient non-farm jobs being created. - High cost, uncompetitive skilled labour for firms in urban areas. - Strategic objectives: - Move Rwanda from an agriculture-based economy to an industry and services-based economy. - Vision 2020 aims for half of the Rwandese workforce to be working off-farm by 2020, up from just 28% today. - Achieving this requires creating an additional 200,000 non-farm jobs per year. - Definitions and measures: - Productivity in this chapter refers to labour productivity — the amount of output produced per worker. - Youth in Rwanda is defined as all those aged 14-35. - By the ILO definition, anyone working at least 1 hour per week is “employed”; underemployment is the main challenge. - Labour statistics and structure: - Overall of the working age population (those aged above 16), 84% are in employment and 16% are not working. - Farm workers make up 60% of the working age population, representing 3.5 million people whose main occupation is farming; they work an average of around 26 hours per week. - Informal workers make up 17% of the population — almost 1 million people. - Workers in the formal (private) sector are just 4% of the population — around 250,000 people. - Workers in the public sector make up 3% of the population. - Non-working groups: - Students make up 11% of the working age population (667,000 people). - “Inactive” people number 215,000 and make up 3.7% of the population. - Long-term unemployed number 46,000 people (0.8% of the population). - Employment dynamics: - Majority of new off-farm jobs are in MSMEs in the informal sector; over 90% of firms in Rwanda are informal and have 3 or fewer employees (NISR 2012). - Largest non-farm job growth in past 5 years: retail (30,000 net new jobs per year), construction (16,000), government (14,000), and transport (7,000). - Despite being non-farm, 82% of these jobs have been created in rural areas. - Education and skills: - Net attendance rates at secondary school level doubled over EDPRS1, from 10.4% to 20.9%; gross attendance rates are 41%. - Education, skills and technology are key drivers of productivity; focus on quality of education and measurable learning outcomes. - Strategic focus: - Primary focus on creating opportunities for the 77% of the population in the farm or informal sector to prosper and for students to find decent jobs after graduation. - Priorities include building higher level skills, expanding access to ICT and technologies, improving business environment, direct support to entrepreneurs, and job matching services to reduce urban unemployment. *Source: _cr13360 - 3.71 But rapid growth in private sector solar products will be encouraged. The* ### 4.25 There are three transition which need to be made for success in ### 4.25 There are three transition which need to be made for success in productivity and youth employment ### Key transitions and strategic direction - Three transitions needed for success in productivity and youth employment: - the movement of farm workers into microenterprises and SMEs; - the growth and formalisation of existing small businesses; - the growth and expansion of the formal sector. - Underlying drivers (as stated): - 1. Productivity is driven by education and economic transformation – moving from farm to off-farm - 2. Private Sector job creation is underpinned by a strong economy and stable macro-economic environment - Challenges that could jeopardize Productivity and Youth Employment (verbatim issues listed): - 1. Current job growth is not fast enough and needs to more than double - 2. A slowing economy would make this even more difficult - 3. Employer feedback on TVET graduates is mixed - 4. Few employers provide training or internships - 5. Employment policy lacks coordination - 6. Rwandan youth lack self-reliance and an entrepreneurial mindset - Strategic direction (verbatim priorities): - 1. A focusing on new job creation through the private-sector SMEs - 2. A focus on creating off-farm jobs which are more productive than farm jobs - 3. Improving the work relevance of education - 4. Linking SMEs to large firms - 5. Leveraging ICT to raise productivity in the public and private sectors ### Productivity and Youth Employment objective (verbatim) - “All Rwandans have a stake in the continued economic growth of Rwanda through access to fulfilling and productive work. All Rwandans who are able to work make a positive contribution to Rwanda growing into a middle-income country through increased productivity” ### Priority areas (4 Priority Areas for Productivity and Youth Employment) - 1 Skills and Attitudes - 2 Technology and ICT - 3 Entrepreneurship and Business Development - 4 Labour Market Interventions ### Priority 1 — Skills and Attitudes: findings and planned outcomes - Findings and rationale: - Skills are a key driver of productivity and wage increases and are essential for staffing emerging sectors including transport, energy, mining, hospitality, IT and trade logistics; and basic skills for massive job creation in literacy, numeracy, trade, construction, transport, agro-processing and light manufacturing. - Many Rwandan youth lack a culture of Entrepreneurship and may hold negative attitudes toward blue-collar jobs, undermining demand for related skills. - Outcomes and policy measures: - Outcome 1.1: Curricula for educational institutions meeting skills requirements of employers - Review and reform of the national curricula from primary through higher education to equip students with job-oriented skills. - Higher secondary schools will integrate entrepreneurship in their curriculum. - Sector Skills Councils to be established for feedback; first Sector Council established in the mining sector with plans to roll out councils for the other seven priority RDB sectors (construction, agriculture, energy, trade & manufacturing, financial services, ICT, and tourism). - RDB’s four key objectives for every Sector Skills Council: reducing skills gaps and shortages; improving productivity and business performance; increasing opportunities to boost skills and productivity across the sector’s workforce including action on equal opportunities; improving quality and relevance of training for employment. - Outcome 1.2: Graduates prepared for job market with critical skills needed - Expand TVET and internship, apprenticeship, and industrial attachment programmes. - TVET courses must be demand-driven and coordinated between education and PSD sectors. - Focus training on priority sectors with high potential for job growth including construction, tourism, and food processing; tailor course offerings to local needs. - National programme to mobilise the private sector for widespread access to productive internships, targeting large national and international firms as well as local smaller firms through district initiatives. - Outcome 1.3: Access to skills training for adults - Provide adult basic literacy training via the Ministry of Education and other agencies as part of the consolidated Integrated Employment Programme. - Short-term basic skills training courses to target competitive labour intensive subsectors such as agro-processing, retail, construction, transport, hospitality, and light manufacturing. - Outcome 1.4: Decreased critical skills gaps - Attract skilled individuals from the Rwandan Diaspora, the EAC, and the international community to fill temporary skills shortages, encourage return and skills transfer, and advertise critical skills vacancies internationally. - Student loans to be focused on critical skills areas needed for Economic Transformation, prioritising sectors such as agriculture, construction, tourism, food processing, and administrative and IT skills for BPO and financial services. - Outcome 1.5: Changing attitudes to work - National Youth Mentorship programme to raise awareness among youth about available opportunities, inculcate a culture of hard work, entrepreneurialism and independence, modelled on the community health worker programme and coordinated by local government with networks of successful entrepreneurs. - Campaigns to improve women’s position in the labour market and change attitudes towards the kinds of jobs men and women can do, aligned with the 2010 National Gender Policy to reduce the number of women involved in the care economy through training and facilitating access to credit. - Quantitative targets and figures (verbatim): - “More than 3 million people are targeted to be reached out by literacy courses and the national financial literacy campaign.” - Reference to “12 full years of basic education” as a national move toward universal secondary education. ### Priority 2 — Technology and ICT: findings and measures - Findings and rationale: - ICT has cross-cutting applications across sectors and is essential to reach Vision 2020 goals of a knowledge-based economy. - Mobile phones and mobile money increase market efficiency by providing quick access to market prices, cheaper communications, and lower payments costs; ICT firms can create jobs in sales, repairs, servicing, and software development. - Rwanda faces shortages in both the quality and quantity of skilled personnel to drive ICT development and achieve VISION 2020 targets. - Outcomes and policy measures: - Strengthen internet and mobile phone infrastructure to lower information-sharing costs and increase business, agricultural and labour market efficiency. - Encourage growth of the mobile money sector by responding to specific needs of businesses to facilitate access to financial services. - Use of automation in manufacturing has potential to increase efficiency and productivity. - Continue collaboration with the EAC on regional ICT infrastructure and regulatory requirements, including improving Rwanda’s broadband networks and reducing connectivity costs through the Regional Connectivity Infrastructure Programme (RCIP), and harmonising cyber laws through the EAC Legal Framework on Cyber Laws. - Outcome 2.1: More productive private sector (text continues beyond supplied excerpt). *EDPRS 2 — Productivity and Youth Employment (excerpt)* ### 4.52 Improving Private Sector Efficiency through accelerated technological ### 4.52 Improving Private Sector Efficiency through accelerated technological innovation. ### Improving private sector efficiency through ICT and last mile connectivity - Deploy last mile connectivity (Access Network) through a PPP framework to ensure businesses can get access to high-speed internet at low cost. - Harmonise regulations to encourage development of mobile money banking with regional and international operators. - Promote cashless financial transactions as an important aspect of efficiency improvements via IT technology. - Create business opportunities for the private sector by outsourcing Government ICT-related support work. - Use public-private partnerships to promote infrastructure and to promote and facilitate the acquisition of services developed by the ICT Private sector. ### Improving ICT skills - Build ICT professional skills to increase innovation in the ICT industry and enable all sectors of the economy. - Leverage ICTs in education to accelerate skills development. - MYICT will ensure: - all schools are connected to ICT infrastructure, - technical support is available, - teachers are trained in basic ICT skills. - Incorporate ICT Professional Certification courses into the teaching curriculum at institutions of higher learning. ### More productive public sector (Outcome 2.2) - Scale up innovative ICT deployments to improve public service efficiency: - SMS-based data collection pilots by MINISANTE for birth and death registrations and by MINEDUC for live school attendance records, to be evaluated and scaled up if effective. - Plans for a Land Administration Information System (LAIS). - Equip all government offices (including local government) with appropriate ICT infrastructure and applications. - Improve connectivity for hospitals and health centres, including RapidSMS and mUbuzima systems. - Promote and strengthen e-transactions through review of processes and systems requirements to encourage systematic use of: - e-procurement, - e-tax filling and payments, - existing e-business registration and visa applications. - Encourage development of a paperless public administration. ### Entrepreneurship, Access to Finance and Business Development (Priority Area 3) - Maintain stable macroeconomic policy and continue improving the business environment to support growth, jobs and productivity. - Target policies to unlock demand-side constraints to growth for household micro enterprises and SMEs, and to attract large labour-intensive firms. - Consolidate public sector job creation, skill and employment financing projects into a single Integrated Employment Programme. ### Context and key statistics on employment and poverty - Majority of Rwandans work in agriculture, the sector with the lowest wages and lowest labour productivity. - Poverty rates: - 60% for those working in agriculture, - 23% for those working off-farm. - Over 1 million informal sector household enterprises in Rwanda. - Less than 300,000 jobs in the formal private sector. - Existing large enterprises account for less than 5% of off-farm employment. ### Increasing MSME businesses (Outcome 3.1) - Reduce barriers to entry for household and micro enterprises (review planning and zoning rules that restrict access to operating locations). - Establish new forums for dialogue with small businesses. - Improve access to finance: - Encourage growth of SACCOs and other micro credit institutions. - Build market infrastructure and financial institutions to promote private sector development. - Align with ICT Sector Strategy to meet regional standards on mobile money for financial inclusion. - Explore mobilising domestic resources via measures such as establishing an alternative investment market for SMEs, enhancing private equity and venture capital funds, and establishing a Rwanda Fund of Funds. - Provide mentoring, awareness and market information via Business Development Centres and RDB outreach programmes. - Pay specific attention to ensuring adequate access to mentoring and advice for women. ### Higher productivity amongst MSMEs (Outcome 3.2) - Provide integrated business development services linking grants and loans to combine capital with training. - Use direct government capital interventions such as credit guarantees offered by the Business Development Fund (BDF) and the challenge fund. - Scale up provision of credit and grants to start-ups, entrepreneurship training, and coordinated support across government agencies through the Integrated Employment Programme for EDPRS 2. - Focus training for micro and small enterprises on simple “rules of thumb” for basic accounting practices. - Business Development Centres in each district will provide incubation, training, mentorship, access to IT facilities, and other government services. - Monitor and evaluate impact of household enterprise support; establish clear criteria for when support should end. ### Cooperatives, associations and SME product clusters - Promote cooperatives and associations to achieve bulking up of activities and economies of scale, providing increased access to credit, training, market information, and advocacy. - Use SME Product Clusters to drive development through knowledge sharing, cross-fertilisation, and economies of scale. - MINICOM’s 2011 study identified the most competitive sectors in each district and informed strategic interventions incorporated into EDPRS District Development Plans. ### Better linkages between large firms and small firms (Outcome 3.3) - Prioritise development of supply chains so SMEs can benefit from engagement with large firms. - Target labour-intensive investment and ensure linkages to SMEs; RDB to focus on job potential as well as productivity and revenue potential in investor attraction. - Establish supply chain linkages between large firms and local MSMEs by improving business directories to include all SMEs in one online directory. - Provide training for SMEs on bidding for contracts with large firms and engaging with big business, including through district SME product clusters. ### Labour market interventions and youth unemployment (Priority Area 4) - Address unemployment among skilled urban youth; although overall unemployed numbers are not large relative to underemployment in the farm sector, this represents wasted human capital. - Key labour market statistics: - Overall youth unemployment rate: 2.6% (16-24 year olds), - National unemployment rate: 0.9%, - Urban unemployment higher: 13% in Kigali, - Unemployment concentrated among secondary senior graduates: 15%, - University graduates: 6%. - Students aged 16 and over: - 11% of the population aged 16 and over are students, - representing 5% growth a year since 2006. - Facilitate job matching via job information centres and monitoring systems for labour and job information. ### Reducing unemployment (Outcome 4.1) - Establishment of the first Employment Service Centre in 2013 by Kigali City Council to: - provide a place for employers to advertise job vacancies, - provide guidance and counselling about the labour market to job seekers in Kigali, - provide information to employers about available skills. - Evaluate the Centre for potential expansion to other major cities. - Expand Career Advisory Service Centres run by higher education institutes and universities; RDB to provide training and capacity building for these services and push for expansion to major secondary schools and TVET providers. - Use social protection (VUP public works scheme, direct cash and in-kind support) to support labour market activity by allowing households to manage risk and make investments; VUP support to be expanded to larger numbers to increase coverage of the poor. - Fully operationalise the labour management information system to monitor statistics on employment and job creation for policy guidance. *Source: EDPRS 2 (selected sections on productivity, ICT, MSMEs, and labour market interventions).* ### 5.3 The governance programme under EDPRS 1 achieved substantial progress in ### _cr13360 - 5.3 The governance programme under EDPRS 1 achieved substantial progress in ### Accountable governance — achievements and focus - EDPRS 1 achieved substantial progress in: - decentralisation, - public financial management, - the promotion of democracy, unity and reconciliation, - regional integration, - the fight against corruption, - access to justice, legal aid, and resolving the case backlog via Gacaca courts and Abunzi. - EDPRS 2 focus areas: - improved service delivery, - further decentralising services closer to citizens, - participation of citizens in planning and delivery of development to improve citizen centeredness. ### Key elements and definitions of accountable governance - Key elements of accountable governance for Rwanda: - public accountability; - citizen empowerment and participation in decision making; - ensuring effective service delivery. - Public accountability entails citizens, communities and stakeholders (CSOs, donors) monitoring and tracking government actions, participatory monitoring and evaluation of EDPRS 2 and other national development programmes (such as the Government 7 Year Plan 2010-2017) from the community level. - Citizen empowerment requires more frequent and interactive engagement between local leadership and citizens, supported by NGOs, CSOs, CBOs, development partners and communities, and development of mechanisms to build community capacity to identify, assess and assert priorities and hold leaders to account. - Ensuring effective service delivery is central and will be emphasised across domains, with accelerated decentralisation policy to take services closer to citizens. ### Strategic framework and challenges - Evidence from citizen score cards (EDPRS 1) identified: - limited mainstreaming of citizen participation and empowerment to ask questions of elected representatives; - service delivery as an area for improvement with general satisfaction measured at below 70%. - EDPRS 2 main task: ensure accountability of institutions by increasing free access to information and providing forums for raising questions, strengthening citizen–institution relationships. - Two priority areas for EDPRS 2 Accountable Governance strategy: 1. Citizens' participation in delivery of development and strengthened public accountability (Citizen participation and mobilisation). 2. Quality service delivery. - Accountable Governance Objective (verbatim): - “Enhance accountable governance by promoting citizen participation and mobilisation for delivery of development, strengthening public accountability and improving service delivery” - Specific objectives: 1. Maximize citizens’ participation and ownership of the national development process, and strengthening demand for accountability. 2. Ensure quality service delivery through providing appropriate feedback from citizens to support growth and poverty reduction. ### Priority Area 1 — Strengthening citizen participation, awareness and demand for accountability - Rationale: - Strengthen connections between participation, accountability and quality/sustainability of service delivery. - Existing measures from EDPRS 1 include decentralisation policy, Citizen Report Card (CRC) system, Office of the Ombudsman, national dialogue, public accountability days, district Joint Action Development Forums (JADFs). - Interventions proposed (three sets): 1. Using “home grown initiatives” to promote citizen participation. 2. Using ICT to promote participation and development communication. 3. Strengthening administrative decentralisation. - Outcome 1.1: Increased citizen participation in planning processes and solving their own problems. - Strengthen “home grown” programmes (Ubudehe, Gacaca, Umuganda, Girinka, Umugoroba w’Ababyeyi). - Link monthly Umuganda and Imihigo exercises to citizen participation, feedback, monitoring and evaluation; promote gender equity, disability, youth and social inclusion. - Outcome 1.2: Enhanced information flows and participation through established and new channels. - Use ICT and mobile-based applications (e.g., twitter) to provide free access to information, interaction and feedback. - Exploit local community radio stations for local information and discussion. - Outcome 1.3: Strengthened accountability. - CSOs and media to use local radio and manage anonymous suggestion boxes at every cell (Akagari) to raise issues; CSOs expected to manage boxes to raise citizen opinion and hold leaders accountable. - Professional development of media: institutional building, content development skills, hands-on training and mentoring via school of journalism; self-regulation and a law ensuring free access to information voted by Parliament with ongoing sensitization. - Decentralised institutions and district capacity building to match resource allocation with planning, implementation, monitoring and reporting capacity; capacity building for JADFs and citizen assemblies/forums. ### Priority Area 2 — Service delivery - Rationale: - Service delivery is a cross-cutting priority for public and private sectors to position Rwanda as a regional hub of excellence for service/customer care. - Public service delivery is the primary function for which government officials must be accountable. - Tools and standards: - A citizen service charter passed by the Ministry of Local Government (MINALOC) sets detailed standards at district, sector and cell levels; further effort required for implementation. - Need to create performance indices for public and private sectors. - Citizen perception findings: - Problem solving skills and timeliness were perceived among the worst service delivery and customer care elements. - District level services indicated as needing the most improvement with 33% dissatisfaction. - Planned interventions (three): 1. Development of a customer-centred service delivery culture as part of regular capacity building. 2. Design and entrenchment of policies, processes and culture of customer service. 3. Establishment of an Institute of Customer Services. - Outcome 2.1: Improved citizens’ scores on the provision of services. - Citizen Report Cards and Service Charters designed to decentralised level; integrate into civic education, school curriculum and tertiary education. - Integrate ICT in monitoring service delivery; promote social media and web-based applications accessible via mobile phones given fast accelerating penetration rate. - Outcome 2.2: Improved awareness of service delivery standards and rights. - Create a Five Star reward and recognition programme for institutions demonstrating exceptional customer services. - Establish forums for customer and citizen review (radio, mobile, internet) with annual index of customer satisfaction applicable to public and private sectors; incentives and rewards for exceptional performance. - Rwanda Development Board (RDB) to facilitate skills and culture building for service delivery, influence employers to support training, set national customer service professional standards, create customer service benchmarks and an annual index of customer satisfaction. ### Foundational and cross-cutting context (selected indicators) - Macroeconomic stability (2002-2012): - Average growth: 8.3% - Inflation: restrained to single digits - Demographic indicators (2012 census comparisons to 2002): - Annual population growth slowed from 3.2% in 2002 to 2.6% in 2011. - Population increased from 8.1 million to 10.5 million. - Population density increased from 321 persons per square kilometre to 416 persons per square kilometre. *Source: EDPRS 2 — Accountable Governance and Foundational Issues (excerpts).* ### 6.6 Population growth remains an important issue for Rwanda due to limited land ### 6.6 Population growth remains an important issue for Rwanda due to limited land ### Population growth, urbanisation and reproductive health - Population growth and increased rate of urbanisation imply greater pressure on the environment and infrastructure. - Policy focus: strengthening responsible family planning programmes, promoting contraceptive use and ensuring a healthy population to support EDPRS 2 objectives. - Specific interventions: environmental protection; pro-active and innovative infrastructure planning to anticipate population pressures; improving quality of education and health; improved security; strengthening social safety net mechanisms to reduce vulnerability. - Innovations in reproductive health: engaging the private sector to provide family planning services in a youth friendly manner; integration of ICT and social media platforms to reinforce communication and behaviour change campaigns. ### Food security and malnutrition - Findings: - Supply of food, as measured by kilocalorie availability, increased over the last ten years from 65% to 129% of needs. - 44% of children under five years, and 47% of children under two years old suffer from chronic malnutrition (stunting) (DHS 2010). - 78% of children between 12-23 months are fed on low-nutrient diets. - Chronically malnourished children risk losing 10% of their lifetime earning potential; malnutrition can cause countries to lose up to 3% of GDP. - Policy priorities and interventions under EDPRS 2: - Reduce chronic malnutrition for children under two years from 47% through early interventions starting from conception to age two (the early 1,000 days emphasis). - Coordinate, strengthen and scale up community based nutrition programmes and information campaigns. - Early detection via growth monitoring and nutrition education for mothers and caretakers. - Referral of chronically malnourished children to community programmes for moderate malnutrition or to health facilities for severe malnutrition. - Support implementation of district plans to eliminate malnutrition. - Communication campaigns to diversify household food production and consumption (e.g. kitchen gardens). - Link agriculture and social protection interventions to reach the most vulnerable children (e.g. school feeding programmes like One Cup of Milk per Child). - Develop programmes on bio-fortified foods and strengthen the food security information system. - Agricultural and market priorities: - Strengthen initiatives that increased productivity (agricultural and animal resource intensification, farmer training). - Value chain development including nutrition-sensitive value chains (e.g. milk), strengthen markets for agricultural products, empower small-holder farming systems, attract private sector investment, reduce post-harvest losses. - Target interventions to areas with lowest food consumption and highest malnutrition, particularly districts with high levels of extreme poverty. ### Early Childhood Development (ECD) and basic education - Vision for ECD: all infants and young children fully achieve their developmental potential mentally, physically, socially and emotionally. - Rationale: ECD is vital foundation for learning, especially for disadvantaged children less likely to start school on time; over-aged children in schools place burden on finances and infrastructure. - Key priorities: - Roll out a one year school readiness programme for 5 and 6 year olds across all districts, expanding over time to a three year programme for 4 to 6 year olds. - Emphasise training of ECD caregivers and development of community driven programmes adhering to national ECD standards and guidelines. - Achievements and indicators: - 9 Year Basic Education (9YBE) programme recognised internationally. - Primary level NER at 96.5%, surpassing the 2012 target of 95%; on track to meet MDG target of 100% net enrolment by 2015 if progress continues. - NER for girls 98% and for boys 95%. - Primary school completion rate reached 72.7%, up from a baseline of 52.5% in 2008, but below the 2012 target of 78%. - Quality challenges and responses: - Qualified teacher to pupil ratio at primary level stands at 62:1, improved from 73:1 in 2008. - Develop alternative measures of education quality (LARS, Early Grade Reading/Numeracy Assessment). - EDPRS 2 interventions to focus on reductions in average class sizes and pupil-teacher ratios; improved curriculum; better and more available teaching and learning materials; improved examination and assessment systems. - Recruit higher calibre teachers; better training, equipment, support and management for teachers. - Emphasise public-private partnerships, expansion of internships, competency-based curricula, catalytic and entrepreneurial skills development, and careers guidance to support the 12YBE strategy. ### Improving quality, demand and accessibility of healthcare - Achievements: - Rwanda on track to achieve health-related MDGs; over 90% of the population covered by medical health insurance. - The growing private sector and non-profit organisations contribute about 33% of total health facilities. - Remaining access and infrastructure issues: - 27% of the population still needs more than an hour to reach the closest health facility (<5km). - Around 51 out of 416 sectors (12%) are still without a health centre. - 15% of health centres still have no electric power. - EDPRS 2 health priorities and interventions: - Improve quality of health care services, including hospital management. - Continue to expand geographical and financial accessibility through construction of health centres, support to the most vulnerable via social protection mechanisms, and increased availability of drugs, vaccines and consumables. - Invest in expansion of health infrastructure, equipping health centres and hospitals, constructing new health centres, developing feeder road networks to facilitate transportation, and electrification of remaining health centres. - Support community level access by training community health workers (CHW), strengthening CHW cooperatives, mobilising communities through dialogue with religious leaders and engagement of civil society in issues like contraceptive use and hygiene. - Improve financial accessibility by reducing fragmented implementation of health insurance, improving allocation and targeting of financial subsidies to the poorest, and ensuring charges reflect ability to pay. - Strengthen health personnel capacity through training and recruitment in hospital management, specialised treatments, financial and procurement management. - Health workforce statistics and actions: - In 2011 the doctor to population ratio was estimated at 1 doctor for 17,240 people. - The gap to attain the doctor to patient norm is estimated to be 930 additional doctors. - To bridge the gap: strengthen and extend the Continuing Professional Development (CPD) programme to all health professionals; improve quality of training institutions via international partnerships. - Review performance based financing with a view to further improvements stimulated by other forms of incentives, financial and non-financial. ### Rule of law, unity and reconciliation, security and stability - Role in development: - Domestic and regional peace and stability are critical for economic transformation, export expansion and private sector development. - Continued support for peacekeeping operations; Rwanda is currently the highest contributor of peacekeeping forces in Africa. - Rule of law and justice priorities: - Strengthen legal and policy framework including anti-corruption measures. - Enhance community participation and awareness of crime prevention. - Develop institutional capacity to respond to, investigate and prevent crime. - Reinforce legal aid mechanisms, improve case management procedures and information systems, raise awareness and application of human rights standards, rehabilitate and improve detention facilities and conditions. - Unity and reconciliation measures: - Promote grassroots dialogue where people share culture, language and history, and promote dialogue in schools and higher learning institutions. - Encourage national and international writers to record and publish factual accounts of Rwandan history and genocide. - Sustain reconciliation processes: reconciliation barometer, reconciliation forums, a national summit on reconciliation, and promotion of the "Rwandan" identity. - Accountability and historical justice: - Increase efforts to bring remaining suspects of the Tutsi genocide in 1994 before Rwandan courts, including establishing and publicising a database of suspects with outstanding warrants. - Reinforce role of the Rwandan Diaspora. - Establish a documentation centre on genocide judgments to facilitate research and protect historical accuracy. ### Strengthening the Effectiveness of Public Finance Management (PFM) - Role: PFM system is the platform for efficient management of the nation’s resources; reporting, audit and oversight are essential to Accountable Governance. - Recent improvements: - Improved scores in PEFA, sector public expenditure review reports, public expenditure tracking survey reports, and independent mid-term and end term evaluations of the Public Financial Management Strategy (2008-2012). - Increased usage of GoR procurement and financial management systems through increased budget support. - Notable improvements across the PFM cycle: economic planning and budgeting, resource mobilisation, procurement and budget execution, accounting and financial reporting, audit and legislative oversight. - Strengthened cross-cutting issues: training and capacity building, implementation of an integrated financial management system, and fiscal decentralisation. - Public entities including districts able to prepare and execute annual budgets and submit financial reports within prescribed statutory deadlines; increased audit scope and legislative scrutiny. - Combined effect: increased efficiency, transparency and accountability in use of public resources. - Priorities for the next five years (drawn from implementation experience of the first PFM Strategy (2008-2012)): - (i) Increased resource mobilisation from domestic and alternative sources of finance to meet increased public expenditure and make Rwanda progressively self reliant. - (ii) Scaling up implementation of the Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS). - (iii) Strengthening PFM systems at the sub-national level including Districts and subsidiary units (sectors, schools, health facilities) to support fiscal decentralisation service delivery. - (iv) Enhanced training, professionalization and capacity building across all PFM disciplines to sustain reforms in the long run. - Strengthen monitoring and evaluation mechanisms to track progress and service delivery to clients. ### Consolidating decentralisation - Background and goal: - Decentralisation began in 2000 with creation of districts and transfer of service delivery responsibilities to districts; this process remains integral to Rwanda's development. - Revised National Decentralisation Policy of 2011 seeks to establish and empower decentralised administration in devolution, delegation and de-concentration. - Overall goal: deepen and sustain grassroots-based democratic governance and promote equitable local development by enhancing citizen participation and strengthening local government, while maintaining effective, functional and mutually accountable linkages between central and local government entities as part of Accountable Governance. *Source: EDPRS 2 — Foundational and Cross Cutting Issues (sections 6.6–6.31) from the provided IMF content unit.* ### 6.32 The focus for decentralisation under EDPRS 2 will be on the following strategic ### 6.32 The focus for decentralisation under EDPRS 2 will be on the following strategic ### Decentralisation: strategic areas and implementation - Strategic focus areas under EDPRS 2: - (i) building fiscally stronger Local Governments through locally owned Local Economic Development (LED) strategies; - (ii) deepening participatory, democratic and accountable local governance systems; - (iii) building capacity for effective local service delivery and ensuring efficient services delivery through further sectoral decentralisation; - (iii) leveraging regional integration to expand opportunities for youth employment creation, local economic empowerment, cross-border trade and security; - (iv) consolidating national unity, cohesion and peace through resilient, synergetic local systems; - (v) using ICT to deliver services efficiently and effectively, increasing citizen’s empowerment through participation, as well as promoting transparency and accountability. - Empowerment of local government entities: - Continue to empower entities closest to the population, especially at cell and village levels, by establishing legal and regulatory frameworks that allow them to deliver services efficiently. - Aspiration: bringing services closer to the population so citizens have a more direct role in management and decision making. - Sectoral decentralisation priorities: - Clarify and streamline processes of sectoral decentralisation in areas of weakness. - Note: sectoral decentralisation differs by sector and service/function; education, health, agriculture and infrastructure have established direct presence at provincial and district levels, while many sectoral service functions remain parallel and not integrated with local government systems. - Allocate resources to decentralised entities that are matched with responsibilities. ### Cross-cutting: Capacity Building (CB) - CB approach and levels: - Holistic focus on capacity creation, capacity utilisation and capacity retention. - Executed at three levels: the individual, the organisational and the institutional environment levels. - Lesson from EDPRS 1: coordination of CB across sectors needs further improvement in terms of synergy and harmonisation in approach and practice. - Under EDPRS 2, CB will be an integral component of the development plans of all sectors. - Ultimate success of EDPRS 2 depends on the capacity of sectors, delivery institutions and districts to deliver under each thematic area. - CB instruments and institutional arrangements: - Sector Capacity Building Strategy: Each sector strategy shall be accompanied by a capacity building strategy that will direct the capacity building interventions over the next five years. - Sub-Sector Working Group on Capacity Building: Each Sector should have a dedicated sub-Sector Working Group on Capacity Building that brings together all public and private stakeholders to encourage cooperation across programmes and avoid duplication of efforts. - Strategic Capacity Building Initiative (SCBI): - SCBI is a framework, administered by the Public Sector Capacity Building Secretariat (PSCBS), focusing on developing capacity across all delivery agencies involved in the value chain of identified priority programmes of each sector to achieve tangible outcomes. - Approach involves hiring experts to coach and mentor Rwanda counterparts in critical skill areas within the sectors, encouraging the principle of skills and knowledge transfer. - SCBI is currently being piloted across energy, agriculture, private sector development and mining with a view to expansion into other areas identified in EDPRS 2. - Planning linkages: - Sector strategies, District Development Plans and the District Capacity Building Plans provide additional information about specific capacity building initiatives. - Priority sectors/areas for CB under EDPRS 2: - energy (electricity generation and distribution); - agriculture (crop intensification programme, mechanisation and irrigation); - private sector development (investment promotion and deal conversion); - environment and natural resources (increasing revenue from mining); - urbanisation (implementation of master plans of current and potential urban centres); - transport (aviation, railway and maritime). - Expected CB outcomes: - Strengthen institutional and organisational capacities across all sectors delivering development actions; - Develop pro-active and flexible mechanisms that enable critical skills to be available in emerging or new sectors; - Provide a pool of young, fully qualified Rwandan experts in critical skill areas able to deliver on priority national programmes. ### Environment and Climate Change - Context and risks: - Rwanda’s economy is heavily dependent on its environment and natural resources; livelihoods of rural (and increasingly urban) communities depend on access, use and management of such resources. - Without sound environmental management, development activities in key sectors can lead to significant environmental degradation that can undermine economic growth. - Climate change (increased floods, landslides and drought) is likely to increase damage to infrastructure and property. - Research has estimated that climate change could result in additional net economic costs (on top of existing climate variability) for Rwanda that are at least equivalent to a loss of almost 1% of GDP each year by 2030. - Strategic approach: - Achieving sustainable economic growth requires prudent use of natural resources and ensuring that climate resilience is built into economic planning. - Mainstreaming environmental sustainability provides an opportunity for improved and sustained livelihoods of present and future generations. - Progress and capacity gaps: - GoR progress examples: Budget Call circular including environment and climate change mainstreaming guidelines for sectors; increasing use of strategic environmental assessment; successful pilots of rural ‘climate proofed’ settlement development. - Need improvement in capacity to implement and enforce environmental policy and to factor in complex, cross-cutting environment and climate change issues into strategic planning. - Institutional tools and financing: - National Green Growth and Climate Resilience Strategy (approved by Cabinet) promotes cross-sector interventions to mainstream environment and climate change while addressing national priorities. - The strategy is supported by a fund for environment and climate change (FONERWA) to facilitate access to sustainable financing and support implementation. - EDPRS 2 considers these strategic tools as entry points to guide sector strategic plans and implementation. - Emphasis on robust monitoring and evaluation systems, such as the green accounting framework, essential for effective policy implementation and to demonstrate economic benefits of environmental protection. - Priority cross-cutting areas: - (i) mainstreaming environmental sustainability into productive and social sectors; - (ii) reducing vulnerability to climate change; - (iii) preventing and controlling pollution. - Key delivery sectors: agriculture, energy, environment and natural resources, infrastructure, health, private sector and financial sector. ### Family and Gender - Policy orientation: - Rwanda committed to placing the family at the centre of development, care and protection of children, gender equality, and as a prerequisite to achieve equitable and sustainable development for women and men, girls and boys. - Gender equality and family promotion were entrenched in PRSP and EDPRS 1 and will continue as cross-cutting themes in EDPRS 2. - EDPRS 2 will ensure past achievements are sustained and new approaches and innovations towards family and gender are promoted. - Child care reform: - GoR launched an innovative child care reform process to close residential care institutions, reintegrate vulnerable children into family environments, and provide quality support to the most vulnerable families. - Reform envisages expansion of social services by recruiting, training and deploying professional social workers at decentralised level to mentor and support village-based childcare volunteers. - Entry point for strengthening an evidence-informed child protection system focusing on interventions for the most vulnerable children, including victims of violence, exploitation, discrimination, neglect and abuse. - Gender equality and economic participation: - Women represent 52% of the population; despite progress, they do not participate fully in socio-economic and political spheres. - EDPRS 2 will focus on strategies that address the needs of all groups to realise rapid economic growth and will mainstream gender and family in planning, budgeting and all development programmes/projects at national and local levels. - Sector strategies and district plans will focus on interventions to reduce poverty among men and women, reduce gender based violence, malnutrition and related conflicts at family and community levels. - EDPRS 2 will enable women and men to participate, access, control and benefit equally from growth processes, enhancing access to jobs (especially off-farm), financial services, property ownership, skills development and market information. - Key sectors to deliver on economic empowerment: agriculture, infrastructure, private sector, ICT, environment and natural resources. - Political participation and GBV: - Rwanda has registered good progress in promoting political participation of women; Government committed to consolidating and achieving more. - EDPRS 2 requires strategies to increase effective participation of women in leadership and decision making, especially in the private sector. - Gender Based Violence (GBV) prevention and response will be pursued to ensure GBV is drastically reduced and victims access appropriate services. - Monitoring: - Wherever possible, EDPRS 2 thematic outcome indicators will be disaggregated by gender. ### Regional Integration - Strategic importance: - Regional and international economic integration identified as key element and the sixth pillar of Vision 2020. - EDPRS 1 found sectors needed a framework to capture benefits, develop opportunities and mitigate risks from regional integration. - Regional integration will be mainstreamed into central and local government plans. - Memberships and agreements: - Rwanda is a member of: East African Community (EAC), Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), Economic Community of the Great Lakes Countries (CEPGL). - Also engaging with tripartite agreement between EAC, COMESA and SADC; member of African Union; has international trade agreements with the EU and USA. - EAC is the most advanced arrangement; as part of EAC, Rwanda is implementing a Customs Union and a Common Market; negotiations ongoing for a Monetary Union and plans for a Political Federation. - Expected benefits and scale: - Deepening regional integration aims to improve opportunities for faster growth and poverty reduction. - Helps overcome constraints of being landlocked, small market size, energy constraints and limited human capital. - EAC offers linkage to neighbouring countries and international ports; increase potential market from 10 to 130 million people with a combined GDP of around USD80 billion; implement EAC energy generation and interconnectivity projects; and benefit from education facilities and skilled labour from EAC Partner States. - Sectoral implications and policy focus: - Regional integration issues affect trade, finance, legislation, health regulation, agricultural standards, environmental safeguards and education qualifications. - Majority of priority EAC issues will fall under Economic Transformation and five sectors: Private Sector Development (PSD), Finance, Justice, Energy, and Transport. - PSD: develop competitive business environment and overcome Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs); focus on EAC tariff structure revisions and improving market access through tripartite free trade agreement with COMESA and SADC. - Finance: focus on stronger regulatory framework supporting enhanced competition in regional and international financial centres and support for savings. - Justice: harmonise Rwandan laws with EAC instruments and approximate with EAC Partner State laws. - Transport: address regional projects concerning roads, rail, water and air transport. ### HIV/AIDS and NCDs - HIV/AIDS: - Rwanda has made extensive gains in prevention using five integrated components: VCT, PMTCT, Male circumcision, BCC, HIV Treatment for scaling-up prevention and treatment. - Health sector contributes to national efforts to halt spread of HIV and AIDS by 2015 through education, counselling motivation, condom distribution, and ensuring adherence to treatment and support for patients with HIV/AIDS or Tuberculosis. - Key interventions include regular sensitisation regarding HIV, voluntary counselling and testing, prevention of mother to child transmission, condom distribution. - Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs): - Five types of NCDs contribute largest to mortality: cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes and injuries. - These NCDs are largely preventable by interventions tackling shared risk factors: tobacco use, alcohol abuse, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, road safety use, and environmental carcinogens. - Risk factors have economic, social, gender, political, behavioural, and environmental determinants; improved understanding and public education provide opportunities for prevention and control. - Priority areas for NCDs: prevention and control in general and in the workplace through increased sensitisation and awareness, and by promoting healthy nutrition and living. ### Disaster Management - Rationale and approach: - Disaster Management requires systematic strategy for effectiveness of preparedness, response and recovery. - Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Disaster Management require political and legal commitment, public understanding, scientific knowledge, careful development planning, responsible enforcement of policies and legislation, people-centred early warning systems, and effective disaster preparedness and response mechanisms. - Multi-stakeholder and effective DRR will mobilise knowledge, skills and resources required for mainstreaming DRR into development programmes. - Commitments and vision: - GoR committed to internationally agreed conventions such as the MDGs and the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015. - Vision: “to build a Disaster Resilient Nation” requiring consolidated efforts and clear understanding of each actor’s responsibilities. - Mainstreaming and priority sectors: - DRR and Disaster Management are mainstreamed in all priority sectors; most important: agriculture, infrastructure, education, environment and natural resources, private sector development, energy, urbanisation, information communication technology, health, youth and social protection. - Measures include investment in rapid response disaster management equipment, early warning systems, and awareness campaigns directed to residents of vulnerable areas. *IMF content unit: _cr13360 - 6.32 The focus for decentralisation under EDPRS 2 will be on the following strategic* ### 6.60 Rwanda does not intend to leave any of its citizens behind in its development. ### _cr13360 - 6.60 Rwanda does not intend to leave any of its citizens behind in its development. ### Inclusion of people with disabilities and disadvantaged groups - Specific steps to ensure people with disabilities (PWDs) and other disadvantaged groups can contribute to and benefit from national development. - Key interventions: - Accessible infrastructure: both private and public sectors required to ensure easy access to all new buildings. - Access to information: media practitioners to develop standards for reporting news accessible to PWDs, including training in sign language. - Legal and regulatory review to remove discrimination against PWDs where the Constitution already provides protection. - Increase number of education personnel and teachers skilled in inclusive and special needs education. - Scale up assistive devices and appropriate learning resources. ### Implementation context and coordination - Implementation will occur during global economic uncertainty with many developed countries likely to continue facing recessions. - Projections and constraints: - Commodity prices, constituting the larger share of Rwanda’s exports, are projected to remain low. - Volumes of ODA are projected to reduce over the short to medium term. - Necessity for increased coordination in delivery, including: - Creation of a national Monitoring and Evaluation Framework. - Harmonisation of actions by institutions for strategic direction, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation. - Adequate sequencing (short term to medium term) and inter-relatedness of actions across thematic, sector strategies, and district plans. - Clear assignment of responsibilities and coordination with non-state actors, emphasizing private sector participation and national ownership. ### Sequencing of actions and early priorities - General sequencing principles to ensure proper use of resources and improve external balance account. - First-year priorities: interventions yielding fast foreign exchange gains or savings. - Sectors amenable to quick wins include: - Agriculture (increased production boosting agro-business and agricultural exports). - Construction industry (demand for cement and other construction material). - Mining industry. - Private sector role: - Actions prioritised to engage and facilitate private sector contribution, including private provision in health and education. - MDGs-related priorities: - Fast-impact interventions on poverty reduction to meet MDG targets. - Specific target: further reduce the share of people living in poverty to 30% by 2015, and below by the end of EDPRS 2 period. - Agricultural productivity increases identified as candidates for early years. - Revenue-raising interventions: - Reforms in Public Financial Management to improve efficiency in raising and using public funds. - Interventions that increase State revenues to be given priority in early years to ensure sufficient funding for EDPRS 2 spending needs. - Harmonisation from national to sub-national levels: - Districts integral to implementation strategy; district monitoring and evaluation tied to Sectors. - Districts coordinate development activities with Sectors and receive guidance on expected annual results and outputs. ### Roles and responsibilities - Planning and coordination: Thematic Working Groups (TWG). - Implementation: Sector and district levels; Ministries, Districts and Agencies remain budget agencies. - Prime Minister’s Office: responsible for coordination of Government programmes; will work closely with MINECOFIN for effective implementation and monitoring. - MINALOC: responsible for aligning national policies and local priorities; central government–local government meetings held regularly. - Public-private coordination: - Effective Public Private Dialogue platform to address private sector concerns. - Regular sector-specific public-private sessions led by Rwanda Development Board and Private Sector Federation. - District-level consultations with district investment groups (IGs); private actors involved in regular management for specific programmes (e.g., TVET). - Donor coordination: - Donor division of labour revised according to EDPRS 2 sectors to avoid duplication and enable joint programming under Busan principles. - Joint programming to be taken further at the Sector Working Group (SWG) level. - Joint Action District Forums (JADF): responsible for district-level coordination; need strengthen alignment of NGOs and CSOs to District Development Plans (DDPs). ### Communication for ownership and participation - Emphasis on communication for development under Accountable Governance theme to ensure participation and contribution of the population. - Challenge: mainstreaming development communication into national planning—knowledge of planning architecture, opportunities, and calendar for citizen engagement. - Information dissemination to support development dialogue: - Medium-term development agenda, Annual Progress Reports on EDPRS, DDPs, District Imihigo, and annual reports on Imihigo achievements at sub-district level. - Targeted outreach to CSOs, communities, and the general public. - Establishment of channels for public feedback on programmes and service delivery to manage expectations and promote behavioural change toward community contributions. ### Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) framework and principles - Central role of a Monitoring and Evaluation Framework supported by a National Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Policy. - Changes from EDPRS 1: - EDPRS 1 Framework focused largely on Monitoring and the Common Performance Assessment Framework (CPAF), with a large number of indicators that burdened monitoring. - Need for a fully integrated M&E system linking different sub-systems and strengthened sector and district monitoring frameworks. - Monitoring Plan objectives: - Track progress at national, thematic, sector, and district levels to ensure evaluability during and at end of implementation. - Integrate tracking of outcomes at three levels and Foundational Issues addressed by Sectors. - Reduce national reporting burden by limiting number of national-level indicators. - Evaluation Plan: - Strategy to evaluate relevance, effectiveness, and efficiency of EDPRS 2 results. - Designed to enhance ongoing policy making, planning, and budgeting at thematic, sector and district levels. - Underlying M&E principles: - a) Harmonisation - b) Accountability - c) Participation and Inclusiveness - d) Comprehensiveness - e) Manageability - f) Evaluability - g) Capacity Development - Principle details: - Harmonisation: M&E harmonised with the three-level planning framework (thematic, sector, district) and interlinked outcomes. - Accountability: regular reporting to citizens at sub-district forums; feedback used for evidence-based planning. - Participation and Inclusiveness: facilitation of reporting and data collection from all planning and administrative levels; arrangements outlined in National Planning, M&E Policy and Implementation Plan. - Comprehensiveness: monitoring and evaluation arrangements for development policies, programmes and projects covered by EDPRS 2. - Manageability: prioritised indicators leveraging existing data collection systems to avoid overburdening; emphasis on appropriate means and capacity for M&E. - Evaluability: sufficient information to evaluate EDPRS 2 at national, thematic, sector and district levels. - Capacity Development: develop capacities for monitoring, data collection, analysis, reporting, dissemination and evaluations at national/sector and sub-national/district levels. ### Monitoring plan, tools, and institutional roles - Monitoring levels: thematic, sector, district, and national. - National Institute of Statistics (NISR) roles: - Integral to monitoring process; provide data via census and survey programme. - Execute planned schedule of surveys and censuses to meet EDPRS 2 data needs. - Provide capacity support to Sectors and districts to strengthen administrative data systems. - Compile meta-data for monitoring indicators for EDPRS 2. - National-level monitoring: - EDPRS 2 Monitoring Matrix: priority set of thematic and foundational indicators core to expected outcomes. - Will inform preparation of a Common Performance Assessment Framework (CPAF) for mutual accountability between the Government of Rwanda and development partners, in line with Busan and Paris Declaration. - Integrated thematic, sector and district monitoring: - Thematic monitoring at outcome level for four themes: Economic Transformation, Rural Development, Youth Employment and Productivity, and Accountable Governance. - Thematic outcome indicators with annual targets to monitor achievements. - Sector monitoring forms basis for thematic outcomes; sector outputs largely achieved through district implementation with linkage between district and sector outcomes. - Foundational Issue outcomes monitored at sector and district level. - Monitoring tools to be presented in the National, Thematic, Sector and District Monitoring Frameworks: - EDPRS 2 Monitoring Matrix - Thematic Area Monitoring Matrix - Sector Monitoring Matrix (with linkages to Thematic Outcomes and covering key Foundational Issues) - District Monitoring Matrix (with linkages to Sector and Thematic Outcomes) - EDPRS 2 Monitoring Matrix: - National level framework for a core set of key monitoring indicators drawn from Sector Frameworks in consultation with sector working groups. - Indicators to be updated and reviewed on annual basis. *Content derived from _cr13360 - 6.60 Rwanda does not intend to leave any of its citizens behind in its development.* ### 7.38 Thematic Area Monitoring Matrix: Outcome indicators will be developed and ### _cr13360 - 7.38 Thematic Area Monitoring Matrix: Outcome indicators will be developed and ### Monitoring matrices and indicators - Thematic Area Monitoring Matrix: - Outcome indicators will be developed and monitored for the four Thematic Strategic Plans on an annual basis. - These indicators will correspond to priority interventions. - Sector Monitoring Matrix: - Consists of outcome indicators of both thematic and foundational nature with corresponding priority interventions and outputs. - Institutions will be assigned specific outcomes to monitor and outputs to deliver in their institutional strategic plans and annual work plans. - Encompasses monitoring progress of the MDG targets. - District Monitoring Matrix: - Outcome indicators identified in the DDPs relating to thematic and sector outcomes. - This matrix will be monitored on an annual basis showing key interventions and outputs to be delivered. - Aid Effectiveness monitoring: - Will be monitored through the Development Partner Assessment Framework (DPAF). ### Evaluation plan (Sector and National) - Sector Evaluations: - The Evaluation Plan will be implemented at two levels: Sector and national. - Sectors will prepare annual evaluation plans for policies, programmes and projects. - Large investment projects will be particularly targeted for evaluation of their cost-effectiveness and social and economic benefits. - Sector evaluation plans will include evaluations of policies, programmes and projects implemented at the district level. - Execution of all Sector evaluations will be managed by SWGs. - Prioritisation: initial evaluation work will inform priorities of EDPRS 2; formative evaluations will assess design before roll-out. - National Level Evaluation of EDPRS 2: - EDPRS 2 will be subjected to a mid-term assessment in the year 2015 and a terminal evaluation in 2017. - Mid-term assessment (2015): - Will evaluate progress towards the achievement of the thematic outcomes. - Will reflect adequacy (relevance and effectiveness) of overall and sector strategies developed to achieve those outcomes. - Will determine the cost of achieving the thematic outcomes. - Terminal evaluation (2017): - Will examine relevance and effectiveness of EDPRS 2, including Thematic, Sector and District strategies utilised to achieve Sector targets. - Will evaluate the cost-effectiveness of delivery of the results of EDPRS 2. - Evaluation commissioning and management: - TWGs shall commission and manage evaluations relating to their themes. - SWGs will commission and manage evaluations, including ex ante evaluations to assess evaluability of planned programmes and projects. - The mid-term assessment and terminal evaluation will be carried out by MINECOFIN. - The mid-term assessment will be conducted as an internal exercise, managed by TWGs in collaboration with MINECOFIN. - Independent evaluators will be contracted for the terminal evaluation. - Sectors will annually identify projects and programmes for assessment or evaluation and identify the budget for these assessments/evaluations. - Sectors will utilize monitoring reports of SWGs and recommendations from JADFs to determine annual evaluation programmes. - Sectors are responsible for setting priorities for evaluations on behalf of thematic areas and districts. ### Institutional arrangements for implementation, monitoring and evaluation - Oversight and coordination: - Oversight functions will lie with Parliament, Cabinet, EDPRS 2 National Steering Committee (NSC), PS’ Forum and Development Partners’ Coordination Group (DPCG) and Leadership Retreat. - A core set of institutions responsible for coordination, strategic oversight and conceptual direction will provide continuous feedback via reports and evaluations into planning and evaluation of EDPRS 2. - Roles and responsibilities (selected highlights): - MINECOFIN: - Will facilitate implementation and monitoring of EDPRS 2 and collaborate with MINALOC to ensure provincial and district actions are timely and aligned to priorities. - Will consolidate thematic and sector reports into Annual and Semi-annual Progress Reports. - Will prepare a database of sector-focused research and disseminate key information from monitoring reports using all types of media, including website and social media. - Thematic Working Groups (TWGs), Sector Working Groups (SWGs) and Joint Action District Forums (JADFs): - TWGs will coordinate technical functions covering more than one SWG and ensure sector plans align to thematic priorities annually. - TWGs will commission and manage theme-related evaluations; SWGs will commission and manage sector evaluations. - JADFs will monitor DDP implementation, monitor district priority actions toward sector and higher results, and align/coordinate development partner interventions at district levels. - Prime Minister’s Office (PMO): - Will be the main recipient of regular and relevant quarterly data and information. - Will coordinate implementation across central government institutions and commission/manage EDPRS 2 mid and end-term evaluations. - Other institutions: - NISR will play a key role in providing data for monitoring. - Other ministries, departments and agencies will supply and receive data and information. - Reporting and policy instruments: - All coordination arrangements for the M&E framework will be outlined in a national M&E Policy. - The Policy will set out Terms of Reference for functioning of all institutions involved in M&E, reports to be produced, timelines and responsibility for reporting. - Table 7.1 (in source) outlines roles and responsibilities of institutions in strategic orientation, coordination, monitoring and evaluation and implementation. ### Capacity development and information systems - Capacity gaps identified: - EDPRS 1 self-assessment and SWG process revealed capacity gaps in the GoR for M&E; RBM principles and practices not fully integrated. - Capacity development priorities (MINECOFIN will develop capacities at all levels in): - Planning, Monitoring and Reporting - Report Writing - Evaluations - Communications and Dissemination of Policy Information - ICT - Management of M&E Function - Training and advocacy: - Training in planning, monitoring and reporting, including report writing, for all planners and officers responsible for monitoring at District level. - Special training and advocacy through seminars and workshops for the media including operators of local language radio stations and other information producers at district and lower geographic levels. - Electronic platform and data use: - An electronic platform will be put in place to ensure information for feedback into the planning process is readily available from districts and Sectors as SWGs and JADFs perform semi-annual monitoring. - The system will provide a database of official government statistics for preparation of annual progress reports to be presented to bodies such as Cabinet, the PS’ Forum and DPCG. - Competencies in performing the evaluative function will be built at national and sub-national levels, including management of national integrated M&E systems and management of evaluations. - National M&E Policy: - Harmonising framework for implementation and monitoring and evaluation of EDPRS 2. - Aims to establish a common basis for implementation of the National Integrated Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation System initially for EDPRS 2 and later for other development frameworks. - Prepared to reinforce accountability within Government and to the population. - Simplified approach identifies a single responsible institution or organ to perform functions of (1) strategic orientation and oversight (2) coordination and monitoring and (3) implementation. - Terms of reference for these organs and institutions will be set out in the National M&E Policy. ### Macroeconomic framework and costing — key projections and assumptions - Objective: - Macroeconomic scenario based on assumptions leading towards Rwanda achieving middle income status by 2020 while lifting a large share of the population out of poverty through accelerated GDP growth via scaling up public and private investment in priority sectors. - Real sector projections: - GDP growth projected to accelerate from 7.5% in 2013 to 12.2% in 2017, and averages 10.2 % over 2013-17. - Per capita GDP is forecast to reach USD 1,000 by the end of the EDPRS 2 period. - Table 8.1 — Output and Growth Rates under Optimistic Scenario (selected figures exactly as presented): - GDP (Rwf billions, constant 2012 prices): 2012 4,363; 2013 4,691; 2014 5,132; 2015 5,677; 2016 6,324; 2017 7,094; 2020 10,388. - GDP (USD millions, constant 2012 prices): 2012 7,062; 2013 7,593; 2014 8,306; 2015 9,190; 2016 10,237; 2017 11,484; 2020 16,815. - GDP per capita (Rwf '000s, constant 2012 prices): 2012 416; 2013 434; 2014 462; 2015 497; 2016 540; 2017 591; 2020 807. - GDP per capita (USD, constant 2012 prices): 2012 644; 2013 703; 2014 747; 2015 805; 2016 874; 2017 956; 2020 1,306. - Annual Growth Rates — Real GDP: 2012 8.0%; 2013 7.5%; 2014 9.4%; 2015 10.6%; 2016 11.4%; 2017 12.2%; Average Annual Growth rate 2013 to 2017 10.2%; 2013 to 2020 11.5%. - Annual Growth Rates — Real GDP per capita: 2012 4.9%; 2013 4.5%; 2014 6.4%; 2015 7.7%; 2016 8.5%; 2017 9.4%; Average 2013 to 2017 7.3%; 2013 to 2020 8.7%. - Source: MINECOFIN staff estimates and projections. - Sectoral growth notes: - Industry expected to experience the highest growth, averaging 12.4% per year. - Services sector expected to average 11.7% over the EDPRS period. - Agriculture growth projected to remain higher than 6% on average through the EDPRS 2 period. - Investment and public finances: - Public investment will rise to 15.0% of GDP in 2015 and decrease afterwards as a share of GDP. - Private investment is projected to overtake public investment in 2016 to more than 15% of GDP by 2017. - External sector: - Exports growth averages 28% per year between 2013 and 2017. - Services exports growth expected to average around 34% per year. - Imports expected to grow at an average of 17.6% per year to support industry. - Current account deficit expected to improve from 10.6% in 2013 to 9.4% in 2017. - Total external debt stock projected to reach 31.2% of GDP in EDPRS 2, with public external debt stock projected at 24.2% of GDP and private debt stock at 7.0% of GDP in 2017. - FDI projected to rise from 2.3% of GDP in 2012 to 3.8% of GDP at the end of EDPRS 2. - Fiscal projections: - External grants projected to stay constant in nominal terms at USD650 million each fiscal year, corresponding to a decline from 10.5% of GDP in 2013/14 to 6.2% of GDP in 2017/18. - Domestic revenues projected to increase from 15.1% of GDP in 2013/14 to 16.3% of GDP in 2017/18. - Total expenditure as a percentage of GDP will initially rise to fund public investment, but decline after 2015/16 as capital expenditure is reduced. - Fiscal deficit will initially increase to 5.4% of GDP in 2015/16 and decline thereafter. - Monetary sector: - Money stock assumed to grow in line with economic activity to keep inflation low and stable. - Credit to the economy projected to average more than 18% of GDP during the EDPRS 2 period. - Scenario planning: - ‘Alternative’ scenarios will be developed and updated every year under the Policy, bearing in mind international and domestic uncertainties. *Italic: Source — _cr13360 (EDPRS 2 excerpt) as provided in the content unit.* ### 8. Macroeconomic Framework and Costing ### 8. Macroeconomic Framework and Costing ### Summary costs - Cost of the initiatives linked to the Thematic Areas: RWF 4,738 billion - Cost of the initiatives linked to Foundational Issues: RWF 3,292 billion - Cost of support functions (such as wage bill): RWF 1,899 billion - Total government expenditure during EDPRS 2: RWF 9,929 billion - Note: These costs do not include the costs of EDPRS 2 initiatives expected to be privately funded. ### Costing methodology and purpose - Costing was prepared through Sector Strategic Plans (SSPs) and District Development Plans (DDPs), using uniform guidelines issued by MINECOFIN. - All cost information presented is in 2012/13 constant prices and reflects sector and district estimates of implementing described outputs. - District costs are integrated within sector outcomes via DDPs. - Expenditures not costed as part of strategies (e.g., wage bill, routine recurrent expenditure for ministries) were analysed and projected based on existing trends and requirements for efficient public service delivery. - The purpose of costing EDPRS 2: - Prioritise budget allocations and public expenditure towards EDPRS 2 core programmes. - Guide development of the medium term expenditure framework and orient public spending. - Actual annual spending to be decided through the annual planning and budgeting process; financing depends on availability of funds and year-specific priorities. ### Total costs for EDPRS 2 initiatives - The estimated total cost to the government of implementing EDPRS 2: RwF 8,030 billion, spread fairly evenly across the five years 2013/14 to 2017/18. - Yearly breakdown (Table 8.2 Total Cost of EDPRS 2 Showing Thematic Areas and Foundation Sectors) (RWF million): - Thematic Areas by year: 2013/14: 1,078,684; 2014/15: 1,057,029; 2015/16: 957,624; 2016/17: 848,162; 2017/18: 796,528; Total: 4,738,026 (59% of total) - Foundational Sectors by year: 2013/14: 644,321; 2014/15: 627,897; 2015/16: 638,727; 2016/17: 669,328; 2017/18: 712,193; Total: 3,292,467 (41% of total) - Total EDPRS 2 by year: 2013/14: 1,723,005; 2014/15: 1,684,926; 2015/16: 1,596,351; 2016/17: 1,517,490; 2017/18: 1,508,721; Total: 8,030,493 (100%) ### Breakdown of costs by Thematic Area - Total costs by thematic area over EDPRS 2 (Table 8.3) (RWF million): - Economic Transformation: 2013/14: 284,774; 2014/15: 380,100; 2015/16: 390,187; 2016/17: 261,488; 2017/18: 197,416; Total: 1,513,966 - Rural Development: 2013/14: 635,519; 2014/15: 514,674; 2015/16: 410,987; 2016/17: 419,978; 2017/18: 425,659; Total: 2,406,818 - Productivity and Youth Employment: 2013/14: 145,383; 2014/15: 133,104; 2015/16: 146,845; 2016/17: 156,517; 2017/18: 164,424; Total: 746,273 - Accountable Governance: 2013/14: 13,009; 2014/15: 29,151; 2015/16: 9,605; 2016/17: 10,178; 2017/18: 9,028; Total: 70,970 - Thematic Areas Total: 1,078,684; 1,057,029; 957,624; 848,162; 796,528; Total: 4,738,026 - Key finding: - Economic Transformation and Rural Development collectively account for over 80% of the total projected costs of the four thematic areas, aligning with EDPRS 2 goals of promoting economic growth and accelerating poverty reduction. ### Sectoral breakdown within Thematic Areas (selected highlights) - Economic Transformation by sector (Table 8.4) (RwF million) — Total: 1,513,966 - Energy: 116,707; 136,107; 169,118; 104,184; 23,992; Total: 550,109 - PSD and Youth: 46,374; 52,022; 55,168; 54,703; 54,263; Total: 262,530 - ICT: 21,605; 67,232; 67,169; 11,880; 11,880; Total: 179,764 - Transport: 45,385; 58,363; 32,850; 18,023; 22,413; Total: 177,034 - Agriculture: 20,180; 24,040; 28,170; 36,578; 50,149; Total: 159,117 - Urbanisation and Rural Settlements: 28,826 each year across five years; Total: 144,128 - Finding: Energy and Private Sector Development (PSD) account for more than half the Economic Transformation cost; Energy costs driven by feasibility assessments and development of geothermal, methane, and peat projects; PSD costs driven by credit expansion, development of SEZs, and an integrated logistics system. - Rural Development by sector (Table 8.5) (RwF million) — Total: 2,406,818 - Agriculture: 266,075; 278,413; 256,972; 265,997; 269,108; Total: 1,336,564 - WATSAN: 288,182; 150,093; 67,332; 67,332; 67,332; Total: 640,270 - Transport: 72,958; 77,844; 78,189; 79,100; 81,797; Total: 389,889 - Finding: Agriculture accounts for more than half the Rural Development costs; cost drivers include feeder roads, terraces, and increased access to inputs for farmers. - Productivity and Youth Employment by sector (Table 8.6) (RwF million) — Total: 746,273 - Education: 128,320; 114,556; 120,922; 132,097; 138,398; Total: 634,293 - Youth: 7,138; 7,499; 15,029; 13,537; 15,833; Total: 59,036 - PSD: 6,956; 8,080; 7,889; 8,155; 7,620; Total: 38,700 - Finding: Education is the largest share, driven by scale up to 12 year basic education and skills development through TVET; PSD and Youth account for around 13% of total costs in this thematic area. - Accountable Governance by sector (Table 8.7) (RwF million) — Total: 70,970 - Decentralisation: 9,953; 26,095; 9,605; 10,178; 9,028; Total: 64,859 (91% of Accountable Governance) - ICT: 3,056; 3,056; 0; 0; 0; Total: 6,111 (9% of Accountable Governance) - Finding: Decentralised functions take up the largest proportion to promote citizens’ participation, public accountability, and quality service delivery. ### Breakdown of costs by Foundational Issues - Foundational issues are ongoing programmes that provide the base for EDPRS 2 goals. - Foundational costs by sector (Table 8.8) (RwF million) — Total: 3,292,467 - Health: 199,730; 198,251; 201,132; 218,868; 216,235; Total: 1,034,216 - Education: 169,693; 164,899; 181,401; 199,628; 233,762; Total: 949,382 - Transport: 46,871; 72,769; 57,914; 64,669; 81,718; Total: 323,940 - Social Protection: 50,999; 60,310; 69,004; 69,726; 73,311; Total: 323,350 - WATSAN: 87,623; 40,224; 38,499; 22,699; 6,900; Total: 195,945 - JRLOS: 35,573; 38,788; 38,204; 39,438; 41,803; Total: 193,806 - ENR: 22,301; 22,027; 23,753; 28,132; 32,613; Total: 128,826 - ICT: 15,636; 14,958; 12,866; 10,568; 10,332; Total: 64,361 - PFM: 11,932 each year for five years; Total: 59,658 - Other smaller sectoral allocations listed in Table 8.8. - Key finding: Health and Education together account for about 60% of total foundational costs, reflecting continued investment in pre-primary and primary education, curriculum improvement, education quality, and efforts toward MDGs in health and education. ### Breakdown by type of expenditure - EDPRS 2 projects classified into six categories: Capital, Operational, Maintenance, Capacity Building, Service Delivery, Non-capital. - Total cost by expenditure type (Table 8.9) (RwF million): - Capital projects: 2013/14: 867,144; 2014/15: 761,265; 2015/16: 672,595; 2016/17: 568,397; 2017/18: 479,341; Total: 3,348,742 - Operations: 102,573; 112,059; 116,346; 120,824; 125,300; Total: 577,102 - Maintenance: 49,838; 60,994; 63,261; 55,397; 60,533; Total: 290,022 - Service delivery: 443,896; 471,295; 481,703; 521,791; 578,836; Total: 2,497,522 - Capacity Building: 55,264; 65,256; 36,820; 37,239; 40,798; Total: 235,377 - Non-capital: 204,291; 214,062; 225,631; 213,846; 223,898; Total: 1,081,727 - Aggregate total by year: 2013/14: 1,723,005; 2014/15: 1,684,931; 2015/16: 1,596,356; 2016/17: 1,517,495; 2017/18: 1,508,707; Total: 8,030,493 - Emphasis: - Development expenditure (Capital) and Service Delivery are the largest shares, reflecting the ambition to fast-track development and reach middle-income status by 2020. - Examples: Economic Transformation includes capital-intensive initiatives (connectivity, infrastructure) and service-delivery; Productivity and Youth Employment emphasizes skills development and entrepreneurship. ### Breakdown of costs by Sector (aggregate and shares) - Overall spending dominated by Productive and Social Sectors: Education, Agriculture, Health, WATSAN, Transport, and Energy combined account for around 80% of required costs. - Projected sector cost division between Thematic Areas and Foundational Issues (Table 8.10) — Total EDPRS 2: 8,030,495 (RwF million). Selected sector five-year totals and shares: - Education total for 5 years: 1,583,676 (20% of total) - Thematic contribution (Education): 128,320; 114,556; 120,922; 132,097; 138,398 - Foundational contribution (Education): 169,693; 164,899; 181,401; 199,628; 233,762 - Agriculture total for 5 years: 1,508,233 (19% of total) - Thematic contribution (Agriculture): 286,255; 302,453; 285,142; 302,575; 319,256 - Foundational contribution (Agriculture): 2,755; 2,286; 2,719; 2,371; 2,421 - Health total for 5 years: 1,034,216 (13% of total) — Foundational contributions only: 199,730; 198,251; 201,132; 218,868; 216,235 - Transport total for 5 years: 890,864 (11% of total) - Thematic: 118,344; 136,207; 111,039; 97,123; 104,210 - Foundational: 46,871; 72,769; 57,914; 64,669; 81,718 - WATSAN total for 5 years: 836,215 (10% of total) - Thematic: 288,182; 150,093; 67,332; 67,332; 67,332 - Foundational: 87,623; 40,224; 38,499; 22,699; 6,900 - Energy total for 5 years: 550,109 (7% of total) — Thematic only: 116,707; 136,107; 169,118; 104,184; 23,992 - PSD and Youth total for 5 years: 362,766 (5% of total) — Thematic and Foundational combined details shown in table - Remaining sectors (Social Protection, ICT, JRLOS, ENR, Urbanisation and Rural Settlements, Decentralisation, PFM, Finance) have smaller shares; full year-by-year splits provided in Table 8.10. ### Annex: Thematic priorities and selected interventions (high-level) - Economic Transformation — Priority Area 1: Interconnectivity via hard and soft infrastructure - Target: Increased electricity generation capacity to 563 MW, leveraging large-scale private sector investment. - Interventions include: roadmap for investment in electricity; target public finance to de-risk projects; accelerated access to electricity, water, roads, and land for priority sectors; fast-track special economic zones; land-allocation mechanisms for investment projects. - Lead sectors/institutions include: Energy, MINIFRA, EWSA, RDB, MINICOM, MINECOFIN, MININFRA, MINALOC, Districts, MINAGRI (NAEB), MINERENA. - Economic Transformation — Priority Area 2: External connectivity and boosting exports - Interventions include: complete Phase I of Bugesera International Airport (cargo facilities) to be operational by 2017; expand RwandAir targeting annual turnover of US$350m by 2018; finalize plans and start railway construction before end of EDPRS 2; establish integrated logistics system and Kigali Logistics Platform; build off-dock container depots in Mombasa and Dar es Salaam; build One-Stop Border Posts in every Rwandan border post; institutionalise monitoring of Non-Tariff Barriers. - Lead sectors/institutions include: RDB, MININFRA, RwandAir, RTDA, MINICOM. - Economic Transformation — Priority Area 2.3: Accelerated growth of exports - Interventions include: overhaul mining sector with new regulations and systems; invest in large-scale tea expansion to make six new factories operational and expand tea production area by 18000ha; intensify capacity building and research in coffee; finalize Kivu Belt national road; support export orientation via an export growth fund within RDB and Trade Linkages Programme. - Lead sectors/institutions include: MINERENA, MINAGRI and NAEB, MININFRA, RDB. *Source: MINECOFIN data presented in "8. Macroeconomic Framework and Costing" (EDPRS 2).* ### 3.1 Increased private sector ### 3.1 Increased private sector ### Increased private sector investment and financing — objectives and interventions - Strengthen the institutional set-up to pro-actively lead and prioritise the investment process. - Transform and better fund the investment promotion process with a revamped strategic focus. - The New Investor Code will be finalised, advertised and implemented during the EDPRS 2 period. - Lead institutions: RDB, MINICOM, MINECOFIN. ### Accelerated structural changes in the financial sector — objectives and interventions - Objective: increase credit to the private sector to 20% of GDP by 2017. - Enactment of the Pension Law. - Enactment of the Trust Law to change the provisions for collective schemes. - RSSB consolidated by strengthened governance and administration; improved investment management and performance; and strengthening risk and cash management. - Development of the bond market (ensuring the regular issuance of government bonds to give banks greater access to long-term funds). - Commercial bank lending increased by strengthening the current credit guarantee programme and reducing collateral obligations. - Create a creditor profile electronic system that will enable commercial banks to verify potential lenders’ credit history. - Lead institutions: MINECOFIN, RSSB, BDF, BNR. ### Strengthened business environment through regulatory reform — objectives and interventions - Tax reforms (with the aim of providing additional incentives for investment, in conjunction with the passing of a new investor code) put in place. - Double taxation agreements with all strategic partners signed. - District-level business environment reforms targeting licensing constraints, access to land and construction permits implemented. - Insolvency process simplified. - Facilitate flow of highly skilled labour from within and outside the EAC. - Enhance public private dialogue (PPD) forum to review sector specific regulations. - Lead institutions: RDB, MINICOM, Districts, DG Immigration and Emigration. ### Target indicators and key statistics (EDPRS 2 monitoring relevant to private sector and finance) - GDP per Capita: US$ 658 (BASELINE 2012); 837 (2015/16 TARGET); 1,000 (2017/18 TARGET). Responsibility: MINECOFIN, NISR. - Population below the poverty line: 44.9 percent (BASELINE 2012); 30.2 percent (2015/16 TARGET); < 30 percent (2017/18 TARGET). Responsibility: MINECOFIN/NISR. - Electricity generated: 110 Mega Watts (BASELINE 2012); 349 (2015/16 TARGET); 563 (2017/18 TARGET). Responsibility: Infrastructure (Energy). - Exports to GDP (Value of exports goods and services): 14.6 percent (1029.9 M$USD) (BASELINE 2012); 21.1 percent (2,053.8 M$USD) (2015/16 TARGET); 27.2 percent (3,401.5 M$USD) (2017/18 TARGET). Responsibility: Private Sector and Youth Employment, BNR. - Non-traditional exports/Total merchandise exports: 56 percent (332.1 M$US) (BASELINE 2012); 60 percent (649.6 M$US) (2015/16 TARGET); 60 percent (978.8 M$US) (2017/18 TARGET). Responsibility: Private Sector and Youth Employment, BNR. - FDI/GDP: 2.3 percent (159.8 M$US) (BASELINE 2012); 3.5 percent (313.1 M$US) (2015/16 TARGET); 4.5 percent (473.4 M$US) (2017/18 TARGET). Responsibility: Private Sector and Youth employment, MINECOFIN. - Private investment/GDP: 10 percent (693.5 M$US) (BASELINE 2012); 13 percent (1,253.7 M$US) (2015/16 TARGET); 15 percent (1.864.9 M$US) (2017/18 TARGET). Responsibility: Private Sector and Youth employment, FPC Census (BNR/RDB). - Credit to the private sector/GDP: 15.6 percent (BASELINE 2012); 18 percent (2015/16 TARGET); 20.2 percent (2017/18 TARGET). Responsibility: Financial Sector, BNR. - Urban population in proposed secondary cities: 16 percent (BASELINE 2012); 26 percent (2015/16 TARGET); 32 percent (2017/18 TARGET). Responsibility: Urbanization and rural settlements, NISR & MININFRA. - Urban households with access to electricity: 46 percent (2012 baseline); 57 percent (2015/16 TARGET); 70 percent (2017/18 TARGET). Responsibility: Infrastructure (Energy), EICV3. - Private investment and financial access targets link to institutional reforms (New Investor Code, Pension Law, Trust Law), financial market development (bond issuance, creditor profiling), and strengthened investment promotion (RDB, MINICOM, MINECOFIN). *Source: EDPRS 2 — Annex 1: Thematic Priorities and Outcomes Matrices (selected excerpts).* ### 24. Reduced Maternal ### _cr13360 - 24. Reduced Maternal ### Health outcomes: maternal and child indicators (EDPRS 2) - (a) Births taking place in health facilities (HC+DH) - Unit: Percent - Baseline (2011): 63 - 2015/16 Target: 74 - 2017/18 Target: 82 - Responsibility for Reporting / Data Source (MoV): Health HMIS, MINISANTE - (b) Maternal Mortality Rate - Unit: /100,000 - Baseline: 476 - 2015/16 Target: 268 - 2017/18 Target: 220 - Responsibility for Reporting / Data Source (MoV): Health HMIS, MINISANTE - Mortality rate for 0-5-year age-group - Unit: /’000 - Baseline: 76 - 2015/16 Target: 50 - 2017/18 Target: 42 - Responsibility for Reporting / Data Source (MoV): Health HMIS, MINISANTE - Contraceptive utilization of modern methods by women in unions aged between 15-49 yrs - Unit: Percent - Baseline (2010): 45 - 2015/16 Target: 62 - 2017/18 Target: 72 - Responsibility for Reporting / Data Source (MoV): Health DHS, HMIS, MINISANTE - Sero-positivity for HIV among Pregnant Women attending Ante-natal Clinics - Unit: Percent - Baseline: 1.5 - 2015/16 Target: 1.0 - 2017/18 Target: 0.6 - Responsibility for Reporting / Data Source (MoV): Health TRACNET, MINISANTE ### Governance, rule of law, accountability, and business environment (EDPRS 2) - Adult population with confidence in the Rule of law - Unit: Percent - Baseline (2012): 73.3 - 2015/16 Target: 74 - 2017/18 Target: > 75 - Responsibility for Reporting / Data Source (MoV): JRLOS RGB - Adult population with confidence in Safety and security - Unit: Percent - Baseline (2012): 91.3 - 2015/16 Target: 92 - 2017/18 Target: 93 - Responsibility for Reporting / Data Source (MoV): JRLOS RGB - Adult population with confidence in the control of corruption, transparency and accountability - Unit: Percent - Baseline (2012): 77.1 - 2015/16 Target: 78 - 2017/18 Target: 79 - Responsibility for Reporting / Data Source (MoV): JRLOS RGB - Adult population with confidence in the Respect for Human Rights (Political Rights and Civil Liberties) - Unit: Percent - Baseline (2012): 73.6 - 2015/16 Target: 75 - 2017/18 Target: 76 - Responsibility for Reporting / Data Source (MoV): JRLOS RGB ### Financial inclusion, payments, and public finance (EDPRS 2) - Adult population accessing financial services - Unit: Percent - 2015/16 Target: 72 - 2017/18 Target: 80 - Long-run target: >85 - Responsibility for Reporting / Data Source (MoV): Financial MINECOFIN - FinScope Survey, NISR - Payment transactions done electronically - Unit: Percent - Baseline: 41.5 - 2015/16 Target: 65 - 2017/18 Target: 75 - Responsibility for Reporting / Data Source (MoV): Financial BNR - Tax revenue/GDP - Unit: Percent - Baseline: 13.6 - 2015/16 Target: 14.7 - 2017/18 Target: 15.5 - Responsibility for Reporting / Data Source (MoV): PFM RRA, Macro ### Decentralization, district delivery, and skills (EDPRS 2) - Districts achieving a minimum of 80 % of their service delivery and sustainable local development targets - Unit: Percent - Baseline: 75 - 2015/16 Target: 85 - 2017/18 Target: 95 - Responsibility for Reporting / Data Source (MoV): Governance and Decentralization MINALOC - Skill requirement levels available within priority sectors to deliver EDPRS 2 - Unit: Percent - Baseline: 25 - 2015/16 Target: 50 - 2017/18 Target: 70 - Responsibility for Reporting / Data Source (MoV): MINECOFIN/PSCB Sect. MINECOFIN/PSCBS ### Secondary indicators (annexed monitoring matrix — placeholders, baselines and targets to be developed) - Economic transformation indicators (examples) - Urban District feeder roads in good condition: Unit Km (Responsibility: Infrastructure) - Value of Green investments (FDI): Unit M$US (Responsibility: ENR/Private Sector & Youth Employment) - Rural development indicator example - Yield of 6 priority crops: Unit Rwf/Ha (Responsibility: Agriculture) - Productivity and youth employment indicators (examples) - Percentage of TVET Graduates employed after Six months of Graduation: Unit Percent (Responsibility: MINEDUC/WDA) - Employers satisfied with TVET graduates: Unit Percent (Responsibility: MINEDUC/WDA) - University Graduates employed one year after di: Unit Percent (Responsibility: MINEDUC/WDA) - SME survival: SMEs still in business two years after start-up: Unit Percent (Responsibility: Private Sector and Youth Employment) - Youth under-employment (examples) - Off-farm working population 16 to 35 years under-employed (working <35 hours/week): Unit Percent (Responsibility: Private Sector and Youth Employment) - Off-farm working population 16 to 35 years extremely under-employed (working <16): Unit Percent - Jobs created annually - Unit: No. (Responsibility: Private Sector and Youth Employment) - Job seekers matched to job opportunities - Unit: Percent (Responsibility: Private Sector and Youth Employment) - Media development barometer - Unit: Percent (Responsibility: RGB) - Adult population with bank accounts - Unit: Percent (Responsibility: Financial) ### District economic transformation priorities (selected highlights) - City of Kigali (Gasabo, Nyarugenge, Kicukiro, Kigali City) - Gasabo: Develop Affordable Houses with Private Sector & Rwanda Social Security Board; construct fly-overs; create dedicated bus lanes; secure 17 km of land and Construct Rapid Bus Terminals; sensitize private sector for Special Economic Zone investment. - Nyarugenge: Fast track District Master Plan projects including Nyabugogo Modern Market; develop CBD Phase 1 in Muhima; construct residential townships in Kanyinya, Akumunigo and Rugarama. - Kicukiro: Construct & rehabilitate roads, develop six higher learning institutions and eight modern markets; promote pro-poor building materials and affordable housing. - Kigali City: Construct 30 km asphalt and 100 km stone paved roads; rehabilitate 29.5 km poor roads; construct 6 road junctions; develop dedicated bus lanes and Rapid Bus Terminal Corridor; establish a Land Bank for affordable housing, public parks and plazas. - Northern Province (Burera, Gakenke, Gicumbi, Musanze, Rulindo) - Priorities include tourism hotel construction, modernizing agriculture (wheat, Irish potatoes, coffee, milk), district industrial park, agro-processing, mining partnerships, low cost housing, and specific road projects (e.g., 17 km Kirenge-Nyirangarama, 9 km Ngoma-Cyuga). - Southern Province (Nyamagabe, Kamonyi, Nyaruguru, Muhanga, Ruhango, Nyanza, Gisagara, Huye) - Priorities include integrated value chains for tea and wheat, 5 pig processing plants, rehabilitation of Kaduha-Musebeya-Uwinkindi-Kitabi road (69.9 km), transformation units for honey and pineapples, electricity line construction, construction of 169 km feeder roads, support for 30,000 SMEs, development of pharmaceutical industry and electricity extension to 25 new villages. - Western Province (Karongi, Ngororero, Rutsiro, Rubavu, Rusizi, Nyamasheke, Nyabihu) - Priorities include increasing export crop productivity (Tea, Coffee), fisheries and livestock development, Kivu belt project (roads, modern ports, hotels), agro-processing units, ICT penetration, tourism infrastructure, provincial industrial park development. - Eastern Province (Nyagatare, Gatsibo, Kayonza, Rwamagana, Ngoma, Kirehe, Bugesera) - Priorities include establishment of agro, livestock and animal feeds plants; tarmac and feeder road targets (e.g., Nyagatare: tarmac roads (20km), feeder roads (300km)); coffee and maize processing plants; diary industry development; TVET construction and youth centers; Ngoma road network targets including 15 Km of tarmac, 11.68 Km stone paved, rehabilitation of 350 km feeder roads, upgrading 53 km to asphalt. *Source: _cr13360 - 24. Reduced Maternal* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/_cr13360.pdf_