## _cr14147

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---

### Introduction / Overview
- The 2011-2014 Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) is Mozambique’s medium-term strategy for implementing the 2010-2014 Five-Year Plan, oriented toward promoting inclusive economic growth and reducing poverty and vulnerability.
- PRSP three general objectives:
  - (i) Increased production and productivity in the agriculture and fishery sectors;
  - (ii) Promotion of employment; and
  - (iii) Human and social development.
- Implementation supported by two pillars: governance; and macroeconomy and public finance management.
- Key PRSP goal: reduce the poverty rate from 54 percent in 2009 to 42 percent in 2014.
- Monitoring uses Demographic and Health Survey; Household Budget Surveys; and implementation reports from individual sectors. Not all PRSP indicators are measured annually.
- This report compares achievements in 2011–2013 against the targets set for 2014.

### 2013 overall monitoring results
- Monitoring of 62 output indicators of the 2013 PES:
  - 44 percent of indicators have achieved the planned targets;
  - 50 percent have not attained the targets but have made significant progress;
  - 6 percent of indicators are lagging far behind.

### Objective 1 — Increased production and productivity in agriculture and fishery
- 16 indicators monitored (2013):
  - 43.8 percent attained planned targets;
  - 50 percent not attained but made progress;
  - 6.3 percent well behind schedule.
- Notable drivers and achievements:
  - Rehabilitation of irrigation systems allowing irrigation of extensive areas: 121 percent.
  - Demarcation and certification of land plots for communities.
  - Increase in number of environmental educators with management training.
- Selected indicator trajectories and values:
  - Percentage of producers assisted by extension activities:
    - 2012 Actual 25 percent vs 2012 Target 10 percent;
    - 2013 Actual 12 percent vs 2013 Target 12 percent;
    - 2014 Target 15 percent.
  - Fishermen receiving assistance:
    - 2012 Actual 1,235 vs 2012 Target 1,000;
    - 2013 Actual 2,833 vs 2013 Target 980;
    - Cumulative 2011–2014 Target 2,930; cumulative actual by 2013: 4,068.
  - Environmental educators in priority localities (Number):
    - 2011 Target 1,200 — Actual 5,345
    - 2012 Target 1,400 — Actual 1,883
    - 2013 Target 900 — Actual 2,412
    - 2014 Target 700
    - Cumulative 2011–2014 Target 4,200; Actual cumulative 2011–2013: 9,460.
- Vaccination performance (Compulsory vaccinations — Amounts administered):
  - Hematic carbuncle: 2010 1,070,000; 2011 837,465; 2012 1,056,220; 2013 973,443; Total 3,937,128
  - Symptomatic carbuncle: 2010 410,000; 2011 173,165; 2012 459,806; 2013 381,650; Total 1,424,621
  - Brucellosis: 2010 43,560; 2011 2,425; 2012 38,489; 2013 2,872; Total 87,346
  - Foot and mouth disease: 2010 300,000; 2011 411,634; 2012 492,046; 2013 380,111; Total 1,583,791
  - Nodular dermatitis: 2010 500,000; 2011 370,458; 2012 485,777; 2013 411,115; Total 1,767,350
  - Newcastle disease: 2010 6,031,500; 2011 3,507,392; 2012 4,370,057; 2013 5,294,374; Total 19,203,323
  - Rabies: 2010 121,200; 2011 116,805; 2012 165,437; 2013 161,735; Total 565,177
  - Rift Valley fiver: 2010 -; 2011 9,562; 2012 3,816; 2013 2,312; Total 15,690
  - Tuberculin: 2010 82,220; 2011 11,915; 2012 20,765; 2013 22,073; Total 136,973
  - TOTAL: 2010 8,558,480; 2011 5,440,821; 2012 7,092,413; 2013 7,629,685; Total 28,721,399
- Percentage of bovine livestock vaccinated (targets and actuals):
  - 2011 Target 80% / Actual 66%
  - 2012 Target 80% / Actual 76%
  - 2013 Target 80% / Actual 70%
  - 2014 Target 80%
  - Note: targets for the four years have never been achieved; indicator does not lend itself to cumulative aggregation.
- Agricultural and fishery production (selected figures and trends):
  - Reported production of food crops: 48,996,000 tons.
  - Cereals:
    - 2010 Production 2,802,581; Yield/ha 1.03
    - 2011 Production 3,040,883; Yield/ha 1.07
    - 2012 Production 2,176,293; Yield/ha 0.95
    - 2013 Production 2,222,004; Yield/ha 0.96
    - 2011-2013 Production 10,241,761; Yield/ha 0.99
  - Leguminous:
    - 2010 Production 421,454; Yield/ha 0.48
    - 2011 Production 452,058; Yield/ha 0.49
    - 2012 Production 492,528; Yield/ha 0.50
    - 2013 Production 526,252; Yield/ha 0.48
    - 2011-2013 Production 1,892,292; Yield/ha 0.49
  - Roots and Tubers:
    - 2010 Production 9,738,066; Yield/ha 7.76
    - 2011 Production 10,093,619; Yield/ha 7.80
    - 2012 Production 8,206,157; Yield/ha 8.86
    - 2013 Production 8,824,145; Yield/ha 9,23
    - 2011-2013 Production 36,861,987; Yield/ha 8.63
  - Fishery sector:
    - Fish catch by year: 2010 165,512; 2011 194,361; 2012 94,655; 2013 218,000; Total 672,528
    - Objective for the period: 150,000 tons.
    - Achievement: 449 percent of the target.
- Objective 1 assessment summary:
  - Of four indicators analyzed: 50 percent achieved targets; 25 percent not achieved but made progress; 25 percent way behind target.
  - Caveat: agricultural growth figures may be incomparable due to statistical data collection reformulation in 2012.

### Objective 2 — Promotion of employment
- 9 indicators monitored (2013):
  - 33.3 percent attained planned targets;
  - 22.2 percent not achieved but made significant progress;
  - 44.4 percent underperformed significantly.
- Key achievements and indicator values:
  - Firms licensed in the simplified regime:
    - Base 2010: about 5,000
    - 2011 Actual 4,997
    - 2012 Actual 14,977
    - 2013 Actual 15,425
    - 2014 Target 9,500
    - Comment: cumulative total 15,425 licensed firms surpasses the 2014 target of 9,500.
    - Indicator table:
      - 2011 Target 6,500 / Actual 4,997
      - 2012 Target 7,500 / Actual 14,977
      - 2013 Target 8,500 / Actual 15,425
  - Jobs created in private and public sectors: 123 percent attained (target 215,592).
  - Percentage of firms licensed in the simplified regime: 135 percent achieved (15,425 firms registered).
  - Number of simplified and harmonized permits based on inventory performed: 100 percent fulfilled.
  - Enterprise incubators and knowledge transfer centers: little or no progress; 2013 Actual 20 percent against targets; 2014 Target 17.
  - Simplified industrial and commercial licensing service: 20 percent achieved.
  - Public vocational training centers built: 1 built in Vilanculos out of 13 planned.
  - Number of vocational training centers expanded, equipped, and with trained staff (Indicator 17.1):
    - 2011 Target 4 / Actual 3
    - 2012 Target 7 / Actual 6
    - 2013 Target 9 / Actual 9
    - 2014 Target 10
    - Comment: likely to be fully attained.
  - Citizens receiving vocational training for self-employment and small business management (Indicator 17.2):
    - 2011 Target 91,414 / Actual 77,146
    - 2012 Target 95,984 / Actual 98,400
    - 2013 Target 105,823 / Actual 113,328
    - 2014 Target 111,114
    - Comment: 2013 level already exceeds the 2014 target.
- Doing Business ranking concerns:
  - Goal: raise position from 126th in 2011 to 113th by 2014.
  - Reported ranks: trend labels show 126th, 139th, 142nd, 139th, 142, 139.
  - Current reported rank (source): 139th out of 189 countries, having risen by three places from 142nd last year.
  - Assessment: current ranking 139th remains below best position 126th (2011) and puts achievement of the target at risk.
- Objective 2 assessment summary:
  - Of six indicators monitored in detailed matrix: 50 percent achieved planned targets; 17 percent not achieved but making good progress; 33 percent well below planned level.
  - General conclusion: some targets highly likely to be achieved (e.g., simplified licensing, vocational training numbers), but several targets remain at risk and the objective may not be fully achievable by end-2014.

### Objective 3 — Human and social development
- 16 indicators monitored (2013):
  - 62.5 percent reported satisfactory performance and fulfilled planned targets;
  - 31.3 percent have not attained targets but have made progress;
  - 6.3 percent are lagging well behind schedule.
- Selected indicator values and trajectories:
  - Institutionalized childbirth:
    - 2011 Actual 62.8%; 2012 Actual 63.8%; 2013 Actual 66.0%; 2014 Target 66.0%
    - Comment: 2014 target already achieved by 2013.
  - Percentage of children under one year fully vaccinated:
    - 2011 Actual 73.2%; 2012 Actual 78.8%; 2013 Actual 78.0%; 2014 Target 80.0%
    - 2013 value 78.0 percent is two percentage points below the 2014 target.
  - Number of new graduates in specific health care careers (Indicator 20.1):
    - 2011 Actual 1,822 (Target 1,650)
    - 2012 Actual 2,427 (Target 1,700)
    - 2013 Actual 2,129 (Target 1,550)
    - 2014 Target 1,700
    - Comment: individual targets over the years have always been surpassed; 2014 target likely attainable.
  - Net school enrolment rate among six-year-olds in first grade (Indicator 21.1):
    - Total:
      - 2011 Actual 69.7% (Target 73.0%)
      - 2012 Actual 71.8% (Target 73.0%)
      - 2013 Actual 79.4% (Target 76.0%)
      - 2014 Target 79.0%
    - Girls:
      - 2011 Actual 68.7% (Target 72.0%)
      - 2012 Actual 71.9% (Target 71.0%)
      - 2013 Actual 77.4% (Target 74.0%)
      - 2014 Target 77.0%
    - Comment: girls’ targets surpassed; total net enrolment in 2013 exceeds the 2014 target.
  - Student-teacher ratio in primary education (Indicator 21.2):
    - Base 2010 65.8%
    - 2011 Actual 62.9% (Target 65.0%)
    - 2012 Actual 63.0% (Target 62.0%)
    - 2013 Actual 63.0% (Target 61.0%)
    - 2014 Target 60.0%
    - Comment: reduction in ratio is slow; target may not be fully achievable.
  - Operational water sources in rural zones (Indicator 26.1):
    - 2011 Actual 20,704 (Target 18,900)
    - 2012 Actual 19,306 (Target 19,432)
    - 2013 Actual 22,854 (Target 19,614)
    - 2014 Target 20,069
    - Comment: 2013 achievement surpasses the 2014 target.
  - Social action program coverage (Indicator 24.1):
    - Base 2010 264,511
    - 2011 Actual 302,748 (Target 302,081)
    - 2012 Actual 308,013 (Target 302,243)
    - 2013 Actual 355,990 (Target 335,302)
    - 2014 Target 371,618
    - Comment: if pace is maintained, 2014 target will be achieved.
- Objective 3 assessment summary:
  - Of eight indicators monitored in detailed assessment: 37.5 percent met planned targets; 62.5 percent have not achieved the target but are making progress and are highly likely to be achieved by 2014.
  - General conclusion: human and social development is the area most likely to achieve its end-2014 targets provided 2014 targets are met.

### Support pillar — Governance
- 46.2 percent of governance indicators met targets;
- 23.1 percent not attained but making significant progress;
- 30.8 percent lagging well behind.
- Achievements:
  - Start of effective implementation of the anti-corruption legislative package.
  - Preparation of resolution approving the Optional Protocol to the Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment.
  - Decree Law defining legal regime for insolvency and recovery of commercial enterprises.
  - Increasing cost-free legal assistance to economically deprived citizens.
  - Gradual reduction in waiting time for accessing public services.
  - Introduction of at least 27 service charters and production of 2,000 brochures and 6,000 CDs on new services.
  - District Development Monitoring System expanded from 30 districts in 2011 to 128 districts.
  - Police: over 16,269 cases of crimes reported to police authorities were resolved.

### Support pillar — Macroeconomy and public finance management
- 37.5 percent of indicators attained planned targets;
- 50 percent not attained but made progress;
- 2.5 percent substantially underperformed.
- Achievements:
  - General State Account published on time.
  - Supervision of 230 procurement management units (UGEAs) and beneficiary management units (UGBs), representing 92 percent of planned targets.
  - Allocation of 574,321 tax identification numbers (NUIT), representing 115 percent of the target.
  - Volume of lending to the economy: 93 percent achieved.
  - Volume of productive lending to the economy rose from about 28.2 percent of GDP in 2011 to 31 percent in 2013.
  - Number of bank branches increased from 58 to 63 between 2011 and 2013.
  - Expansion of coverage of the financial system.

### Conclusions and risks (summary)
- Overall 2011–2013 vs 2014 targets:
  - Human and social development: most targets likely to be attained by end-2014 if 2014 targets are met.
  - Employment promotion: one third of targets at high risk of not being achieved by end-2014; Doing Business ranking target (113th) at risk given current rank 139th.
  - Agriculture and fishery: fishery production target achievable (449 percent of period target achieved); agricultural outlook less encouraging, especially cereals segment which affects the poorest households’ consumption basket.
- Specific risks and caveats:
  - Percentage of bovine livestock vaccinated failed to reach 80 percent target in 2011–2013 (Actuals 66%, 76%, 70% respectively).
  - Agricultural statistics comparability affected by reformulation of statistical data collection in 2012.
  - Some indicators are difficult to monitor (e.g., firms using negative licensing), limiting predictability of achievement.
  - If performance trends of previous years are maintained, some targets may not be achieved by the end of the PRSP lifespan.

*Source: _cr14147*

### 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................

### 1. INTRODUCTION

### Overview
- The 2011-2014 Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) is Mozambique’s medium-term strategy for implementing the 2010-2014 Five-Year Plan, oriented toward promoting inclusive economic growth and reducing poverty and vulnerability.
- PRSP’s three general objectives:
  - (i) Increased production and productivity in the agriculture and fishery sectors;
  - (ii) Promotion of employment; and
  - (iii) Human and social development.
- Implementation is supported by two pillars: governance; and macroeconomy and public finance management.
- The key PRSP goal: reduce the poverty rate from its level of 54 percent in 2009 to 42 percent in 2014.
- Assessments to date: progress reports for 2011 and 2012; annual evaluation via the government’s economic and social plan (PES) for PRSP indicators; an external evaluation will be performed at the end of the PRSP period.
- This report compares achievements in 2011–2013 against the targets set for 2014 (end of PRSP lifespan).

### Data sources and approach
- Monitoring and assessments use data from: Demographic and Health Survey; Household Budget Surveys; and implementation reports from individual sectors at various levels.
- Not all PRSP indicators are measured annually; the analysis uses the broadest possible sample of indicators available for 2011–2013.

### Rationale
- With less than one year remaining in the PRSP implementation period, the report aims to assess execution, analyze progress, and identify gaps to inform possible future reviews of target attainment relative to resources allocated.

### Final focus of this unit
- Review progress in PRSP implementation by comparing results achieved (2011, 2012, 2013) with 2014 targets.

### *Key numeric targets stated*
- Poverty rate: reduce from 54 percent in 2009 to 42 percent in 2014.

---

### 2. PROGRESS IN IMPLEMENTING THE PRSP OBJECTIVES

### 2.1 Analysis of PRSP performance in 2013 — overall monitoring results
- Monitoring of 62 output indicators of the 2013 PES:
  - 44 percent of indicators have achieved the planned targets;
  - 50 percent have not attained the targets but have made significant progress;
  - 6 percent of indicators are lagging far behind.

### Performance by objective (2013 snapshot)
- Human development (OBJ3): best performance among objectives.
- Promotion of employment (OBJ2): most challenges and constraints in fulfilling targets.

---

### Objective 1: Increased production and productivity in the agriculture and fishery sectors
- 16 indicators monitored:
  - 43.8 percent have attained the planned targets;
  - 50 percent have not attained targets but have made progress;
  - 6.3 percent are well behind schedule.
- Drivers of performance:
  - Effective implementation of animal disease vaccinations (particularly bovine livestock);
  - Producer support;
  - Rehabilitation of irrigation systems allowing irrigation of extensive areas (121 percent);
  - Demarcation and certification of land plots for communities;
  - Increase in number of environmental educators with management training.

---

### Objective 2: Promotion of employment
- 9 indicators monitored:
  - 33.3 percent have attained the planned targets;
  - 22.2 percent have not achieved the target but have made significant progress;
  - 44.4 percent of indicators have underperformed significantly.
- Notable achievements:
  - Percentage of firms licensed in the simplified regime: 135 percent achieved (15,425 firms registered).
  - Jobs created in private and public sectors: 123 percent attained (target 215,592).
  - Number of simplified and harmonized permits based on inventory performed: 100 percent fulfilled.
- Major shortfalls:
  - Number of enterprise incubators and knowledge transfer centers: little or no progress.
  - Simplified industrial and commercial licensing service: target 20 percent achieved.
  - Public vocational training centers built: 1 built in Vilanculos out of 13 planned.

---

### Objective 3: Human and social development
- 16 indicators monitored:
  - 62.5 percent reported satisfactory performance and fulfilled planned targets;
  - 31.3 percent have not attained targets but have made progress;
  - 6.3 percent are lagging well behind schedule.
- Specific achievements:
  - Percentage of children who completed immunization program: target achieved.
  - Number of adults receiving antiretroviral treatment: 136 percent achieved (438,255 recipients vs. 321,643 planned).
  - Net school enrolment rate among six-year-olds in first grade: girls 77.4 percent; total 79.4 percent; target 76 percent.
  - Latrines built: 119,815 representing 286 percent of the target.
  - Disperse water sources operating in rural zones: 22,854, exceeding plans.

---

### Support pillar: Governance
- Performance:
  - 46.2 percent of governance indicators met targets;
  - 23.1 percent have not attained targets but are making significant progress;
  - 30.8 percent are lagging well behind.
- Achievements supporting the 46 percent target:
  - Start of effective implementation of the anti-corruption legislative package.
  - Preparation of resolution approving the Optional Protocol to the Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment.
  - Decree Law defining legal regime for insolvency and recovery of commercial enterprises.
  - Increasingly effective cost-free legal assistance to economically deprived citizens.
  - Gradual but significant reduction in waiting time for accessing public services.

### Support pillar: Macroeconomy and poverty
- Performance:
  - 37.5 percent have attained planned targets;
  - 50 percent have not attained targets but have made progress;
  - 2.5 percent have substantially underperformed.
- Contributions to pillar performance:
  - General State Account published on time.
  - Better implementation of procurement and asset management processes, including supervision of 230 procurement management units (unidade gestora executora de aquisições – UGEAs) and beneficiary management units (unidade gestora beneficiária – UGBs), representing 92 percent of planned targets.
  - Allocation of 574,321 tax identification numbers (número único de identificação tributário – NUIT), representing 115 percent of the target.
  - Volume of lending to the economy: 93 percent achieved.
  - Expansion of coverage of the financial system.

---

### 2.2 Progress in PRSP implementation between 2011 and 2013

### Scope and methodology
- The report compares indicator results for 2011, 2012, and 2013 against 2014 targets.
- Analysis is not exhaustive because not all indicators are measured annually.

### OBJECTIVE 1 detailed results (selected indicators)
- Priorities: (1) improve and increase access to factors of production; (2) facilitate market access; (3) improve sustainable management of natural resources.
- Four output indicators highlighted: percentage of producers assisted by extension activities; number of fishermen receiving assistance; percentage of bovine livestock vaccinated; number of environmental educators in priority localities.
- Producers assisted by extension activities:
  - 2012: target surpassed by more than half (25 percent compared to 12 percent);
  - 2013: target achieved as planned.
  - Conclusion: 2014 end-of-exercise target is attainable given prior achievements.
- Fishermen receiving assistance:
  - 2012: 1,235 assisted vs. target 1,000.
  - 2013 target: 980; 2013 actual: 2,833 assisted.
  - Cumulative target for 2011–2014: 2,930 fishermen; cumulative actual by 2013: 4,068 assisted — cumulative target surpassed despite 2013 year-specific target not being met.
- Environmental educators in priority localities:
  - Annual achievements have consistently surpassed targets.
  - Cumulative target 2011–2014: 4,200 environmental educators.
  - Actual cumulative 2011–2013: 9,460 environmental educators.
- Indicator table excerpt (Number of environmental educators in priority localities):
  - 2011 Target: 1200 — 2011 Actual: 5,345
  - 2012 Target: 1,400 — 2012 Actual: 1,883
  - 2013 Target: 900 — 2013 Actual: 2,412
  - 2014 Target: 700
- Percentage of bovine livestock vaccinated:
  - Targets for the four years have never been achieved.
  - 2012 vaccination rate was close to the planned level.
  - Note: this indicator does not lend itself to cumulative aggregation.

---

*Source: _cr14147 - 1. INTRODUCTION*

### conclusions, if the performance trend of previous years is maintained, the target may not be

### _cr14147 - conclusions, if the performance trend of previous years is maintained, the target may not be achieved by the end of the PRSP lifespan.

### Vaccination performance
- Compulsory vaccinations increased in the first year of the period under analysis, then fell off in 2011 and 2012 due mainly to decentralized management of processes and resources linked to vaccination campaigns.
- Vaccinations administered (Compulsory vaccinations — Amounts administered):
  - Hematic carbuncle: 2010 1,070,000; 2011 837,465; 2012 1,056,220; 2013 973,443; Total 3,937,128
  - Symptomatic carbuncle: 2010 410,000; 2011 173,165; 2012 459,806; 2013 381,650; Total 1,424,621
  - Brucellosis: 2010 43,560; 2011 2,425; 2012 38,489; 2013 2,872; Total 87,346
  - Foot and mouth disease: 2010 300,000; 2011 411,634; 2012 492,046; 2013 380,111; Total 1,583,791
  - Nodular dermatitis: 2010 500,000; 2011 370,458; 2012 485,777; 2013 411,115; Total 1,767,350
  - Newcastle disease: 2010 6,031,500; 2011 3,507,392; 2012 4,370,057; 2013 5,294,374; Total 19,203,323
  - Rabies: 2010 121,200; 2011 116,805; 2012 165,437; 2013 161,735; Total 565,177
  - Rift Valley fiver: 2010 -; 2011 9,562; 2012 3,816; 2013 2,312; Total 15,690
  - Tuberculin: 2010 82,220; 2011 11,915; 2012 20,765; 2013 22,073; Total 136,973
  - TOTAL: 2010 8,558,480; 2011 5,440,821; 2012 7,092,413; 2013 7,629,685; Total 28,721,399
- Percentage of bovine livestock vaccinated (targets and actuals):
  - 2011 Target 80% / Actual 66%
  - 2012 Target 80% / Actual 76%
  - 2013 Target 80% / Actual 70%
  - 2014 Target 80% (no actual provided for 2014 in source)

### Agricultural and fishery production
- Agricultural output in 2010-2014 occurred in adverse agro-meteorological conditions (unduly heavy rainfall, floods, droughts, and cyclones), affecting production and productivity.
- Support provided: certified seeds, pesticides and protection/application equipment, electrical/motor-driven pumps, machinery, implements, and technical assistance.
- Reported production of food crops: 48,996,000 tons.
- Crop production and yield (selected figures):
  - Cereals:
    - 2010 Production (tons) 2,802,581; Yield/ha 1.03
    - 2011 Production (tons) 3,040,883; Yield/ha 1.07
    - 2012 Production (tons) 2,176,293; Yield/ha 0.95
    - 2013 Production (tons) 2,222,004; Yield/ha 0.96
    - 2011-2013 Production (tons) 10,241,761; Yield/ha 0.99
  - Leguminous:
    - 2010 Production (tons) 421,454; Yield/ha 0.48
    - 2011 Production (tons) 452,058; Yield/ha 0.49
    - 2012 Production (tons) 492,528; Yield/ha 0.50
    - 2013 Production (tons) 526,252; Yield/ha 0.48
    - 2011-2013 Production (tons) 1,892,292; Yield/ha 0.49
  - Roots and Tubers:
    - 2010 Production (tons) 9,738,066; Yield/ha 7.76
    - 2011 Production (tons) 10,093,619; Yield/ha 7.80
    - 2012 Production (tons) 8,206,157; Yield/ha 8.86
    - 2013 Production (tons) 8,824,145; Yield/ha 9,23
    - 2011-2013 Production (tons) 36,861,987; Yield/ha 8.63
- Observed trends:
  - Slight drop in production levels between 2011 and 2013 for cereals and roots/tubers (except leguminous which increased production).
  - Downward trend in yields for cereal crops and leguminous vegetables; upward trend in per-hectare yields for roots and tubers.
  - Growth in production of cash crops averaged 6.9 percent during the first four years of 2010-2014, with exceptions for sugar cane, citrus fruits, sesame, potato and bananas.
- Fishery sector:
  - Fishery production (catch volumes) between 2010 and 2013: 672,528 tons.
  - Objective for the period: 150,000 tons.
  - Achievement: 449 percent of the target.
  - Fish catch by year: 2010 165,512; 2011 194,361; 2012 94,655; 2013 218,000; Total 672,528
- Overall assessment of the objective to increase production and productivity in agriculture and fishery sectors:
  - Of four indicators analyzed: 50 percent achieved targets; 25 percent not achieved but made progress; 25 percent way behind target.

- Note: "The figures for agricultural growth need to be interpreted cautiously, since the statistical data collection process was reformulated in 2012, thereby rendering the data on food crops (cereals, leguminous vegetables and cassava) incomparable with the series for earlier periods."

### Employment promotion (Objective 2)
- Priorities: (1) stimulate job creation; (2) improve citizens’ employability.
- Firms licensed in the simplified regime:
  - 2010 about 5,000 firms licensed in the simplified regime.
  - 2011 4,997
  - Rapid growth by about 400 percent in 2012 and 2013, cumulative total 15,425 licensed firms, surpassing the target of 9,500 set for 2014.
  - Indicator table (Targets and Actuals):
    - 2011 Target 6,500 / Actual 4,997
    - 2012 Target 7,500 / Actual 14,977
    - 2013 Target 8,500 / Actual 15,425
    - 2014 Target 9,500
- Number of firms using negative licensing: information scarce; 2013 suggests 20 percent achievement of the target.
- Doing Business ranking:
  - Goal: raise position from 126th in 2011 to 113th by 2014.
  - Reported ranks: 2009-2014 trend shows 126th, 139th, 142nd, 139th, 142, 139 (per chart labels). Specific statements:
    - Mozambique is currently ranked 139th out of 189 countries, having risen by three places from last year when it was 142nd.
    - Country implemented two reforms this year in international trade and obtaining building permits.
    - Still below best position of 126th achieved in 2011; current ranking 139th puts achievement of the target at risk.
  - Source: Doing Business 2014.
- Enterprise incubators and knowledge transfer centers: achievements between 2011 and 2013 scarce (below 50 percent), putting 2014 target in doubt.
- Professional training centers (CFPs) expanded, equipped, staffed with trained employees:
  - Number of CFPs by year (Targets and Actuals chart):
    - 2011 Target 4 / Actual 3
    - 2012 Target 7 / Actual 6
    - 2013 Target 9 / Actual 9
    - 2014 Target 10
  - Achievement: increased considerably from 2011 to 2013, having achieved 90 percent of the target set for 2014.
- Citizens receiving professional training for self-employment and small business management:
  - Output indicator (Targets and Actuals):
    - 2011 Target 91,414 / Actual 77,146
    - 2012 Target 95,984 / Actual 98,400
    - 2013 Target 105,823 / Actual 113,328
    - 2014 Target 111,114
  - 2013 level already exceeds the target set for 2014.
- Overall performance on Objective 2:
  - Of six indicators monitored: 50 percent achieved planned targets; 17 percent have not achieved target but making good progress; 33 percent performed well below planned level.
  - General conclusion: progress suggests the objective may not be fully achievable by end of the exercise.

### Human and social development (Objective 3)
- Priorities: (1) availability of social services and quality access; (2) basic social security; (3) social infrastructures.
- Eight indicators used to measure attainment: coverage of institutionalized childbirth; percentage of children that have completed immunization program; number of graduates in health care careers; net school enrolment rate; student-teacher ratio in primary education; number of families benefiting from social action programs; beneficiaries of productive social action programs; number of operational water sources in rural zones.
- Institutionalized childbirth:
  - 2011 Actual 62.8%; 2012 Actual 63.8%; 2013 Actual 66.0%; 2014 Target 66.0%
  - By 2013 the 66 percent coverage rate had already been achieved.
- Percentage of children under one year fully vaccinated:
  - 2011 Actual 73.2%; 2012 Actual 78.8%; 2013 Actual 78.0%; 2014 Target 80.0%
  - 2013 value 78 percent is two percentage points below the 2014 target.
- Number of new graduates in specific health careers:
  - 2011 Target 1,650 / Actual 1,822
  - 2012 Target 1,700 / Actual 2,427
  - 2013 Target 1,550 / Actual 2,129
  - 2014 Target 1,700 (Actual not listed)
  - Analysis: number of graduates is just 222 less than the 2014 target (per text), implying target highly likely to be achieved.
- Primary school enrolment rate:
  - 2013 achievement 79.4 percent compared to 2014 target 94 percent (text states target already achieved before end of PRSP lifespan — note: text reports 79.4 percent achievement already in 2013 compared to 94 percent set for 2014; also reports net primary school enrolment rate among six-year-olds chart showing targets/actuals).
  - Primary school enrolment among girls: 2013 value 77.9 percent; 2014 target 77 percent (2013 surpassed end-period target).
- Student-teacher ratio in primary education:
  - Base 66 percent in 2010; lowered to 63 percent by 2013; target 60 percent. Signs the target might not be fully achievable.
- Social action programs - family aggregates covered:
  - 2014 target ~372,000 starting from base 267,000 in 2010.
  - By 2013 some 360,000 beneficiaries had been assisted; if pace maintained, target will be achieved.
- Operational water sources in rural zones:
  - 2010 about 17,000; 2013 about 23,000.
  - 2014 target just over 20,000 operational water sources; 2013 achievement already exceeds the target.
  - Chart data (Number of operational water sources):
    - 2011 Target 18,900 / Actual 20,704
    - 2012 Target 19,432 / Actual 19,306
    - 2013 Target 19,614 / Actual 22,854
    - 2014 Target 20,069
- Overall performance for Objective 3:
  - Of eight indicators monitored: 37.5 percent reported significant performance and met planned targets; 62.5 percent have not achieved the target but are making progress and are highly likely to be achieved by 2014.
  - General conclusion: strategic objectives for end-2014 can be attained provided all 2014 targets are met.

### Governance and macroeconomy / Public finance management (Support pillars)
- Governance priorities: Improve access to and quality of public services; combat corruption; decentralization and local governance; consolidation of democratic rule of law.
- Achievements (Governance and macroeconomy):
  - Waiting time for accessing public services reduced via ratification of instruments such as the African Charter on Values and Principles of Public Service and Administration.
  - Introduction of at least 27 service charters and production of 2,000 brochures and 6,000 CDs on new services.
  - Increase in number of staff trained in public and local authority administration each year.
  - Expansion and incorporation of more services in one-stop facilities (Balcão de Atendimento Único – Baús) from one to five located in Changara, Ulongué, Lumbo, and Nacala.
  - Increase in proportion of institutions with state inspection recommendations implemented (Inspecção Geral Administrativa do Estado – IGAE); all publish corresponding reports.
  - District Development Monitoring System expanded from 30 districts in 2011 to 128 districts.
  - Police performance: over 16,269 cases of crimes reported to police authorities were resolved.
- Achievements (Macroeconomy and public finance management):
  - Volume of productive lending to the economy rose from about 28.2 percent of GDP in 2011 to 31 percent in 2013.
  - Number of bank branches increased from 58 to 63 between 2011 and 2013.

### Concluding thoughts
- Main challenges remain in increasing production and productivity in agriculture and fishery sectors:
  - Fishery production target is certainly achievable.
  - Agriculture outlook less encouraging: challenges prevalent in cereals segment (a key component of the poorest population groups’ consumption basket).
  - Leguminous vegetables have increased production but lost productivity; roots and tubers (cassava important for poor households) show rising productivity between 2011 and 2013.
- Employment promotion objective:
  - One third of its targets at high risk of not being achieved by end of 2011-2014 PRSP period.
  - Improvement in Doing Business ranking remains a concern: current ranking 139th is below best level 126th (2011) and far from target 113th.
- Human and social development objective:
  - Does not have targets unlikely to be achieved; most targets likely to be attained, making it the area most likely to achieve all targets by end of period provided 2014 targets are met.

*Source: _cr14147 - conclusions, if the performance trend of previous years is maintained, the target may not be achieved by the end of the PRSP lifespan.*

### 4. PRSP MATRICES

### _cr14147 - 4. PRSP MATRICES

### Objective 1 — Increased production and productivity in the agriculture and fishery sectors
- Improve and increase access to factors of production; strengthen research and extension services to produce technologies adapted to Mozambique’s agro-ecological characteristics.
  - Indicator 1.2: Percentage of producers assisted by extension services that adopt new technologies, and number of fishermen assisted.
    - Base 2010: 38,901
    - 2011: Not applicable. To be monitored in 2012
    - 2012 Target: 10%
    - 2012 Actual: 25%
    - 2013 Target: 12%
    - 2013 Actual: 12%
    - 2014 Target: 15%
    - Comment: "The target will be successfully attained by 2014, despite data obtained in 2011 showing that it is not applicable and will be monitored in the following year. Nonetheless, this could be compensated by the actual figure for 2013, in which the target was more than 100% achieved."
    - Fisheries sub-indicators and values:
      - Fisheries: 1,000 producers assisted (target)
      - Fisheries: 1,000 fishermen assisted (target)
      - Fisheries actuals reported: 980 producers assisted; 2,833 producers assisted; 950 producers assisted (across years)
- Improve sustainable resources management; increase production and improve access to inputs.
  - Indicator 3.1: Percentage of bovine livestock vaccinated
    - Bovine meat production base: 8,101
    - Targets and actuals:
      - Target: 80%; Actual: 66%
      - Target: 80%; Actual: 76%
      - Target: 80%; Actual: 70%
      - Target: 80% (2014)
    - Comment: "The data obtained from the sample show that the relevant authorities are making efforts in terms of the time horizon for each target, so it is concluded that the target will be approached by 2014."
  - Indicator 11.2: No. of environmental educators in priority localities
    - Base 2010: 48 %
    - 2011 Target: 1,200; Actual: 5,345
    - 2012 Target: 1,400; Actual: 1,883
    - 2013 Target: 900; Actual: 2,412
    - 2014 Target: 700
    - Comment: "The data obtained from the sample show that the relevant authorities are making efforts in terms of the time horizon for each target, so it is concluded that the target will be approached by 2014."

### Objective 2 — Promotion of employment
- Stimulate job creation; encourage SMEs and investment in labor-intensive industries.
  - Indicator 13.2: No. of firms licensed in the simplified regime (Ministry of Industry and Trade – MIC)
    - Base 2010: 5,000
    - 2011 Target: 6,500; Actual: 4,997
    - 2012 Target: 7,500; Actual: 14,977
    - 2013 Target: 8,500; Actual: 15,425
    - 2014 Target: 9,500
    - Comment: "Target more than 100% achieved."
  - Indicator 13.3: No. of firms using negative licensing
    - Base 2010: 0
    - 2011: 0 Not applicable (to be monitored in 2012)
    - 2012 Target: 0; Actual: No information
    - 2013 Target: 500; Actual: 20%
    - 2014 Target: 5,000
    - Comment: "As this indicator is difficult to monitor, there is insufficient information and nothing can be predicted in terms of achieving the target. The actual figure shown for 2013 is in relation to progress."
  - Indicator 13.4: Improve Mozambique’s performance in the “Doing Business” ranking (Indicator of the 2012 QAD)
    - Base 2010: 0
    - 2011: 0 No information
    - Targets described: Reduce the number of procedures needed to start up a business by 50%; 90 Reduce the number of days needed to obtain a building permit by 50%; 115 To be defined
    - Comment: "Considering the rapid progress achieved in 2012 and 2013, Mozambique is steadily improving its performance and raising its “Doing Business” ranking. This could continue in 2014, although the target remains to be defined."
  - Indicator 14.1: No. of enterprise incubators, knowledge transfer centers and entrepreneurship guidance centers created and operational
    - Base 2010: 1
    - 2011 Target: 7; Actual: 1
    - 2012 Target: 10; Actual: No information
    - 2013 Target: 14; Actual: 20%
    - 2014 Target: 17
    - Comment: "Considering the weak results achieved from 2011 to 2013, the 2014 target is at risk."
- Improve citizen employability; improve efficiency and effectiveness of public employment services.
  - Indicator 17.1: No. of vocational training centers expanded, equipped, and with trained staff
    - Base 2010: 23 precariously
    - 2011 Target: 4; Actual: 3
    - 2012 Target: 7; Actual: 6
    - 2013 Target: 9; Actual: 9
    - 2014 Target: 10
    - Comment: "Bearing in mind the progress achieved from 2011 to 2013, the number of centers expanded, equipped, and with trained staff scheduled for 2014 is likely to be fully attained."
  - Indicator 17.2: A large number of citizens receiving vocational training to self employment and large-scale training in small business management
    - Base 2010: 43,580 trained by public vocational training centers
    - 2011 Target: 91,414; Actual: 77,146
    - 2012 Target: 95,984; Actual: 98,400
    - 2013 Target: 105,823; Actual: 113,328
    - 2014 Target: 111,114
    - Comment: "Target more than 100% achieved"

### Objective 3 — Human and social development
- Availability and quality of access to social services; promote equal access to healthcare, prioritize health and nutrition among women and children and other vulnerable groups.
  - Indicator 18.1: Institutionalized childbirth coverage rate (Indicator 11 of the 2012 QAD)
    - Base 2010: 62.0%
    - 2011 Target: 62.6%; Actual: 62.8%
    - 2012 Target: 63.0%; Actual: 63.8%
    - 2013 Target: 65.0%; Actual: 66.0%
    - 2014 Target: 66.0%
    - Comment: "Bearing in mind planning for 2014, the targets for this objective could be attained. The target for the coverage of institutionalized childbirth was already achieved in 2013."
  - Indicator 19.2: Percentage of children under one year of age fully vaccinated
    - Base 2010: 72.0%
    - 2011 Target: 73.0%; Actual: 73.2%
    - 2012 Target: 76.0%; Actual: 78.8%
    - 2013 Target: 78.0%; Actual: 78.0%
    - 2014 Target: 80.0%

- Improve human resource management; make services more user-friendly and focus on quality and user satisfaction.
  - Indicator 20.1: No. of new graduates in specific health care careers
    - Base 2010: 2,180
    - 2011 Target: 1,650; Actual: 1,822
    - 2012 Target: 1,700; Actual: 2,427
    - 2013 Target: 1,550; Actual: 2,129
    - 2014 Target: 1,700
    - Comment: "The indicator shows that the target for this objective is attainable, because the individual targets over the years have always been surpassed."

- Universal access to seven grades of primary education, of a quality that guarantees learning basic skills.
  - Indicator 21.1: Net school enrolment rate among six year olds in the first cycle - Total and Girls (Indicator 13 of the 2012 QAD)
    - Total:
      - Base 2010: 69.8%
      - 2011 Target: 73.0%; Actual: 69.7%
      - 2012 Target: 73.0%; Actual: 71.8%
      - 2013 Target: 76.0%; Actual: 79.4%
      - 2014 Target: 79.0%
      - Comment: "This objective may not be wholly achievable, because it remains a major challenge to reduce the student-teacher ratio in the first primary school cycle (EP1). In fact, from a base of 66%, by 2013 it had only been reduced to 63%, so still above the intended target of 60%."
    - Girls:
      - Base 2010: 69.6%
      - 2011 Target: 72.0%; Actual: 68.7%
      - 2012 Target: 71.0%; Actual: 71.9%
      - 2013 Target: 74.0%; Actual: 77.4%
      - 2014 Target: 77.0%
  - Indicator 21.2: No. of students per teacher in the first cycle (1st to 5th grade) (daytime public education) (Indicator 14 of the 2012 QAD)
    - Base 2010: 65.8%
    - 2011 Target: 65.0%; Actual: 62.9%
    - 2012 Target: 62.0%; Actual: 63.0%
    - 2013 Target: 61.0%; Actual: 63.0%
    - 2014 Target: 60.0%

- Basic social security; increase coverage and impact of direct social action programs.
  - Indicator 24.1: No. of family aggregates covered by direct social action programs (Indicator 16 of the 2012 QAD)
    - Base 2010: 264,511
    - 2011 Target: 302,081; Actual: 302,748
    - 2012 Target: 302,243; Actual: 308,013
    - 2013 Target: 335,302; Actual: 355,990
    - 2014 Target: 371,618
    - Comment: "If the pace of beneficiary growth seen throughout the year is maintained, this target will be achieved and the corresponding objective will be attained."
  - Indicator 25.1: No. of aggregates benefiting from the Productive Social Action Program (Indicator 16 of the 2012 QAD)
    - Base 2010: 0 Program designed and approved
    - 2011: Program designed
    - 2012 Actual: 9,592
    - 2013 Actual: 9,683
    - 2014 Target: 11,380; Actual: 11,345
    - 2014 Target (final reported): 14,770
    - Comment: "Achievement of the 2014 target will enable the objectives set to be fully attained."

- Social infrastructures; increase access to drinking water supply and safe sanitation services.
  - Indicator 26.1: No. of disperse water sources operating in rural zones (Indicator 18 of the 2012 QAD)
    - Base 2010: 16,500
    - 2011 Target: 18,900; Actual: 20,704
    - 2012 Target: 19,432; Actual: 19,306
    - 2013 Target: 19,614; Actual: 22,854
    - 2014 Target: 20,069
    - Comment: "Starting from a base of 16,500 operational water sources in rural areas in 2010, a target of 20,069 was set for 2014. By 2013 there were 22,854, i.e. surpassing the target for the five-year period."

*Source: _cr14147 - 4. PRSP MATRICES*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/_cr14147.pdf_